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000
FXUS65 KBOU 301951
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST AS A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...ALLOWING READINGS IN THE 90S TO BE EASILY REACHED OVER THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FIRING OVER WYOMING AND PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY DOWN
INTO THE 40S...MAKING STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING OUT OF THE STORMS THE MAIN THREATS. A COOL FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE STATE THIS EVENING...LIKELY
DISGUISED BY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE AND
COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOME WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL BRING
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
MODELS ARE DEPICTING BOTH A THETA E RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL
AS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PAST MIDNIGHT...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE SLIGHTLY SO THAT THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LESS WIND AND
MORE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING DISTURBANCES INTO COLORADO ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FLOW WILL CHANGE MORE NORTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL PUSHES EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW. FOR
THURSDAY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE WITH DECENT
INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS DECENT CAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE BY 18Z WITH BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDE 40-45 NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTH TO THE WYOMING
BORDER. THERE WILL BE A STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH THURSDAY BUT THE
TIMING WILL NEED TO BE RIGHT FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH PWS OF
0.90-1.00 MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.

FRIDAY WILL SEE DRYING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AS THE STORM DYNAMICS
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS
MORE EASTERLY BRINGING DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO NE COLORADO.
THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO PEOPLE WILL NEED TO STAY VIGILANT IF
HIKING FOR A CONTINUED LIGHTNING THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGHS HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S BY SUNDAY.

EXTENDED MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE A TRANSITION INTO THE
SEASONAL MONSOON WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS
MEANS INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A
FRONTAL PUSH THIS EVENING TURNS THEM NORTHWESTERLY. BEFORE THAT
HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MAY
AFFECT THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS MAINLY 00Z- 04Z. MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-40 KNOTS DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF
STORMS TODAY. THREAT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION TEMPO GUSTY WINDS IN
THAT TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL RETURN TO DRAINAGE TONIGHT. ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 20Z WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAKER
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 301951
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST AS A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...ALLOWING READINGS IN THE 90S TO BE EASILY REACHED OVER THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FIRING OVER WYOMING AND PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY DOWN
INTO THE 40S...MAKING STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING OUT OF THE STORMS THE MAIN THREATS. A COOL FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE STATE THIS EVENING...LIKELY
DISGUISED BY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE AND
COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOME WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL BRING
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
MODELS ARE DEPICTING BOTH A THETA E RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL
AS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PAST MIDNIGHT...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE SLIGHTLY SO THAT THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LESS WIND AND
MORE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING DISTURBANCES INTO COLORADO ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FLOW WILL CHANGE MORE NORTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL PUSHES EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW. FOR
THURSDAY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE WITH DECENT
INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS DECENT CAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE BY 18Z WITH BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDE 40-45 NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTH TO THE WYOMING
BORDER. THERE WILL BE A STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH THURSDAY BUT THE
TIMING WILL NEED TO BE RIGHT FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH PWS OF
0.90-1.00 MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.

FRIDAY WILL SEE DRYING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AS THE STORM DYNAMICS
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS
MORE EASTERLY BRINGING DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO NE COLORADO.
THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO PEOPLE WILL NEED TO STAY VIGILANT IF
HIKING FOR A CONTINUED LIGHTNING THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGHS HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S BY SUNDAY.

EXTENDED MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE A TRANSITION INTO THE
SEASONAL MONSOON WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS
MEANS INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A
FRONTAL PUSH THIS EVENING TURNS THEM NORTHWESTERLY. BEFORE THAT
HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MAY
AFFECT THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS MAINLY 00Z- 04Z. MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-40 KNOTS DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF
STORMS TODAY. THREAT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION TEMPO GUSTY WINDS IN
THAT TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL RETURN TO DRAINAGE TONIGHT. ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 20Z WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAKER
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 301628
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1028 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS POINT. DID
INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE
TO THETA E RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND RECENT HIRES MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PAST MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY OVER UTAH
WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES RATHER QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL
TURN A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AND FURTHER WARMING OF THE AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 90S ON MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH 70S AND
80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DRAG SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS A RESULT...WE EXPECT TO SEE A FEW MORE HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS. FIRST ONE SHOULD FIRE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AND
SPREAD SOUTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. MAIN THREATS AT THIS TIME WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS. CAPES SHOULD
HOLD LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.

CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN/DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY STABILIZE. STILL A
MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AROUND SO CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING PAST MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS IS
ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH A 35-55 KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL FLOW FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE
IS BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY ON THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS SHOW A COOLER
AIRMASS AND NORTHEASTERLY...THEN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLIES PREVAIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN MAYBE
WEAK DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT. MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS ARE PROGGED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHEASTERLIES BY AFTERNOON
...THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS
FAIRLY DECENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.60 TO 1.30 INCH RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S F THROUGH THE PERIODS. AGAIN THERE IS SOME CAPE AROUND...
NOTHING GREAT. THE LAPSE RATE FIELDS ON THE CROSS SECTIONS DO
KEEP A PRETTY DECENT STABLE LAYER OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS LATE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED MEASURABLE RAINFALL ALL
FOUR PERIODS. WILL GO WITH 20-50%S POPS FOR THE PLAIN`S LATE DAY
PERIODS...WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAY ALSO
LET SOME MINOR POPS GOING FOR THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING
PERIODS...06-18Z. FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-6 C
COOLER THAN TODAY`S READINGS. FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-1 C WARMER THAN
THURSDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS
KEEP A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN THEY MIGRATE IT EASTWARD. THE CENTER OF A
WEAKER...THEN OF LATE...UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY...THEN WEAKENS AND IS MORE DUE WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IT IS PRETTY DRY FOR THE FOUR DAY PERIOD...WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS NEEDED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE A FRONTAL PUSH THIS EVENING TURNS THEM
NORTHWESTERLY. BEFORE THAT HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MAY AFFECT THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS MAINLY
23Z- 04Z. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-40 KNOTS
DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS TODAY. THREAT HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO MENTION TEMPO GUSTY WINDS IN THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 301628
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1028 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS POINT. DID
INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE
TO THETA E RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND RECENT HIRES MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PAST MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY OVER UTAH
WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES RATHER QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL
TURN A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AND FURTHER WARMING OF THE AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 90S ON MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH 70S AND
80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DRAG SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS A RESULT...WE EXPECT TO SEE A FEW MORE HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS. FIRST ONE SHOULD FIRE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AND
SPREAD SOUTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. MAIN THREATS AT THIS TIME WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS. CAPES SHOULD
HOLD LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.

CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN/DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY STABILIZE. STILL A
MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AROUND SO CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING PAST MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS IS
ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH A 35-55 KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL FLOW FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE
IS BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY ON THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS SHOW A COOLER
AIRMASS AND NORTHEASTERLY...THEN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLIES PREVAIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN MAYBE
WEAK DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT. MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS ARE PROGGED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHEASTERLIES BY AFTERNOON
...THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS
FAIRLY DECENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.60 TO 1.30 INCH RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S F THROUGH THE PERIODS. AGAIN THERE IS SOME CAPE AROUND...
NOTHING GREAT. THE LAPSE RATE FIELDS ON THE CROSS SECTIONS DO
KEEP A PRETTY DECENT STABLE LAYER OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS LATE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED MEASURABLE RAINFALL ALL
FOUR PERIODS. WILL GO WITH 20-50%S POPS FOR THE PLAIN`S LATE DAY
PERIODS...WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAY ALSO
LET SOME MINOR POPS GOING FOR THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING
PERIODS...06-18Z. FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-6 C
COOLER THAN TODAY`S READINGS. FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-1 C WARMER THAN
THURSDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS
KEEP A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN THEY MIGRATE IT EASTWARD. THE CENTER OF A
WEAKER...THEN OF LATE...UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY...THEN WEAKENS AND IS MORE DUE WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IT IS PRETTY DRY FOR THE FOUR DAY PERIOD...WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS NEEDED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE A FRONTAL PUSH THIS EVENING TURNS THEM
NORTHWESTERLY. BEFORE THAT HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MAY AFFECT THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS MAINLY
23Z- 04Z. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-40 KNOTS
DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS TODAY. THREAT HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO MENTION TEMPO GUSTY WINDS IN THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 300943
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY OVER UTAH
WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES RATHER QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL
TURN A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AND FURTHER WARMING OF THE AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 90S ON MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH 70S AND
80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DRAG SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS A RESULT...WE EXPECT TO SEE A FEW MORE HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS. FIRST ONE SHOULD FIRE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AND
SPREAD SOUTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. MAIN THREATS AT THIS TIME WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS. CAPES SHOULD
HOLD LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.

CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN/DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY STABILIZE. STILL A
MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AROUND SO CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING PAST MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS IS
ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH A 35-55 KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL FLOW FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE
IS BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY ON THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS SHOW A COOLER
AIRMASS AND NORTHEASTERLY...THEN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLIES PREVAIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN MAYBE
WEAK DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT. MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS ARE PROGGED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHEASTERLIES BY AFTERNOON
...THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS
FAIRLY DECENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.60 TO 1.30 INCH RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S F THROUGH THE PERIODS. AGAIN THERE IS SOME CAPE AROUND...
NOTHING GREAT. THE LAPSE RATE FIELDS ON THE CROSS SECTIONS DO
KEEP A PRETTY DECENT STABLE LAYER OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS LATE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED MEASURABLE RAINFALL ALL
FOUR PERIODS. WILL GO WITH 20-50%S POPS FOR THE PLAIN`S LATE DAY
PERIODS...WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAY ALSO
LET SOME MINOR POPS GOING FOR THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING
PERIODS...06-18Z. FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-6 C
COOLER THAN TODAY`S READINGS. FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-1 C WARMER THAN
THURSDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS
KEEP A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN THEY MIGRATE IT EASTWARD. THE CENTER OF A
WEAKER...THEN OF LATE...UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY...THEN WEAKENS AND IS MORE DUE WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IT IS PRETTY DRY FOR THE FOUR DAY PERIOD...WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS NEEDED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS MAINLY
23Z-04Z. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-40 KNOTS
DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS TODAY. THREAT HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO MENTION TEMPO GUSTY WINDS IN THAT TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR FAIRLY NORMAL AND LIGHT DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS
ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 300943
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY OVER UTAH
WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES RATHER QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL
TURN A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AND FURTHER WARMING OF THE AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 90S ON MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH 70S AND
80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DRAG SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS A RESULT...WE EXPECT TO SEE A FEW MORE HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS. FIRST ONE SHOULD FIRE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AND
SPREAD SOUTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. MAIN THREATS AT THIS TIME WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS. CAPES SHOULD
HOLD LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.

CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN/DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY STABILIZE. STILL A
MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AROUND SO CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING PAST MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS IS
ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH A 35-55 KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL FLOW FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE
IS BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY ON THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS SHOW A COOLER
AIRMASS AND NORTHEASTERLY...THEN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLIES PREVAIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN MAYBE
WEAK DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT. MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS ARE PROGGED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHEASTERLIES BY AFTERNOON
...THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS
FAIRLY DECENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.60 TO 1.30 INCH RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S F THROUGH THE PERIODS. AGAIN THERE IS SOME CAPE AROUND...
NOTHING GREAT. THE LAPSE RATE FIELDS ON THE CROSS SECTIONS DO
KEEP A PRETTY DECENT STABLE LAYER OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS LATE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED MEASURABLE RAINFALL ALL
FOUR PERIODS. WILL GO WITH 20-50%S POPS FOR THE PLAIN`S LATE DAY
PERIODS...WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAY ALSO
LET SOME MINOR POPS GOING FOR THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING
PERIODS...06-18Z. FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-6 C
COOLER THAN TODAY`S READINGS. FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-1 C WARMER THAN
THURSDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS
KEEP A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN THEY MIGRATE IT EASTWARD. THE CENTER OF A
WEAKER...THEN OF LATE...UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY...THEN WEAKENS AND IS MORE DUE WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IT IS PRETTY DRY FOR THE FOUR DAY PERIOD...WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS NEEDED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS MAINLY
23Z-04Z. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-40 KNOTS
DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS TODAY. THREAT HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO MENTION TEMPO GUSTY WINDS IN THAT TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR FAIRLY NORMAL AND LIGHT DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS
ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS65 KBOU 300319
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
919 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK. SHOWERS ENDED A LITTLE EARLY SO DROPPED THEM
AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE CONTINUES AS A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN REMAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH THE NORTHEAST PUSH
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMING
ALOFT IS LIKELY KEEPING MOST OF THE PLAINS CAPPED. SCATTERED CONVECTION
MOVING SOUTH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WITH ISOLATED AREAS
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...DIMINISHING AS THE SUN GOES DOWN.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING DOWN OVER THE EASTERN CO
PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME DOWNSLOPING
AND WARMING WINDS OVERNIGHT FOR WARMER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH VALLEYS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL
EXTEND EAST TUESDAY FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IN ADDITION TO THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH. LOOK FOR READINGS IN THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AGAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN WITH A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STORM
MOVEMENT...WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES INTO COLORADO ALONG
THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY CONVECTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
WITH A SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO NE COLORADO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE NNE DIRECTION THAT WILL
INCREASE UPSLOPE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM EARLY IN THE WEEK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH DECENT SHEAR. UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DCAPES SO HIGH WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BEING ANOTHER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGHER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THURSDAY. THERE IS DECENT UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW BRINGING SHEAR IN THE 40-50 RANGE
OVER NE PLAINS COUNTIES. CAPE VALUES CURRENTLY ARE IN THE
1100-1300 J/KG RANGE AND COMBINED WITH SHEAR COULD PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS FOR THE
PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE WEEKEND WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 90S. VARYING MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT COULD BRING SOME CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY BUT DETAILS STILL MUDDY THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 919 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS...BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE
IN STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH IN ISOLATED SPOTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
HYDROLOGY...KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 300319
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
919 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK. SHOWERS ENDED A LITTLE EARLY SO DROPPED THEM
AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE CONTINUES AS A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN REMAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH THE NORTHEAST PUSH
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMING
ALOFT IS LIKELY KEEPING MOST OF THE PLAINS CAPPED. SCATTERED CONVECTION
MOVING SOUTH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WITH ISOLATED AREAS
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...DIMINISHING AS THE SUN GOES DOWN.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING DOWN OVER THE EASTERN CO
PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME DOWNSLOPING
AND WARMING WINDS OVERNIGHT FOR WARMER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH VALLEYS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL
EXTEND EAST TUESDAY FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IN ADDITION TO THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH. LOOK FOR READINGS IN THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AGAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN WITH A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STORM
MOVEMENT...WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES INTO COLORADO ALONG
THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY CONVECTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
WITH A SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO NE COLORADO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE NNE DIRECTION THAT WILL
INCREASE UPSLOPE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM EARLY IN THE WEEK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH DECENT SHEAR. UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DCAPES SO HIGH WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BEING ANOTHER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGHER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THURSDAY. THERE IS DECENT UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW BRINGING SHEAR IN THE 40-50 RANGE
OVER NE PLAINS COUNTIES. CAPE VALUES CURRENTLY ARE IN THE
1100-1300 J/KG RANGE AND COMBINED WITH SHEAR COULD PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS FOR THE
PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE WEEKEND WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 90S. VARYING MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT COULD BRING SOME CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY BUT DETAILS STILL MUDDY THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 919 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS...BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE
IN STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH IN ISOLATED SPOTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
HYDROLOGY...KRIEDERMAN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 292049
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
249 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE CONTINUES AS A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN REMAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH THE NORTHEAST PUSH
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMING
ALOFT IS LIKELY KEEPING MOST OF THE PLAINS CAPPED. SCATTERED CONVECTION
MOVING SOUTH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WITH ISOLATED AREAS
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...DIMINISHING AS THE SUN GOES DOWN.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING DOWN OVER THE EASTERN CO
PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME DOWNSLOPING
AND WARMING WINDS OVERNIGHT FOR WARMER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH VALLEYS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL
EXTEND EAST TUESDAY FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IN ADDITION TO THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH. LOOK FOR READINGS IN THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AGAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN WITH A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STORM
MOVEMENT...WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES INTO COLORADO ALONG
THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY CONVECTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
WITH A SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO NE COLORADO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE NNE DIRECTION THAT WILL
INCREASE UPSLOPE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM EARLY IN THE WEEK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH DECENT SHEAR. UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DCAPES SO HIGH WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BEING ANOTHER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGHER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THURSDAY. THERE IS DECENT UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW BRINGING SHEAR IN THE 40-50 RANGE
OVER NE PLAINS COUNTIES. CAPE VALUES CURRENTLY ARE IN THE
1100-1300 J/KG RANGE AND COMBINED WITH SHEAR COULD PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS FOR THE
PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE WEEKEND WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 90S. VARYING MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT COULD BRING SOME CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY BUT DETAILS STILL MUDDY THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND EAST OVER PLAINS OF LINCOLN COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH STORMS MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH.
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE BRIEFLY AFFECTED BY
OUTFLOW WINDS...MAINLY NEAR BJC OR APA. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND THEN BACK TO DRAINAGE BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTERNOON STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN
TUESDAY...HOWEVER SOME COULD PUSH OFF OVER AIRPORTS LATER AS
MOVEMENT WILL BE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS...BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE
IN STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH IN ISOLATED SPOTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
HYDROLOGY...KRIEDERMAN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 292049
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
249 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE CONTINUES AS A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN REMAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH THE NORTHEAST PUSH
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMING
ALOFT IS LIKELY KEEPING MOST OF THE PLAINS CAPPED. SCATTERED CONVECTION
MOVING SOUTH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WITH ISOLATED AREAS
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...DIMINISHING AS THE SUN GOES DOWN.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING DOWN OVER THE EASTERN CO
PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME DOWNSLOPING
AND WARMING WINDS OVERNIGHT FOR WARMER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH VALLEYS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL
EXTEND EAST TUESDAY FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IN ADDITION TO THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH. LOOK FOR READINGS IN THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AGAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN WITH A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STORM
MOVEMENT...WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES INTO COLORADO ALONG
THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY CONVECTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
WITH A SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO NE COLORADO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE NNE DIRECTION THAT WILL
INCREASE UPSLOPE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM EARLY IN THE WEEK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH DECENT SHEAR. UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DCAPES SO HIGH WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BEING ANOTHER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGHER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THURSDAY. THERE IS DECENT UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW BRINGING SHEAR IN THE 40-50 RANGE
OVER NE PLAINS COUNTIES. CAPE VALUES CURRENTLY ARE IN THE
1100-1300 J/KG RANGE AND COMBINED WITH SHEAR COULD PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS FOR THE
PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE WEEKEND WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 90S. VARYING MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT COULD BRING SOME CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY BUT DETAILS STILL MUDDY THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND EAST OVER PLAINS OF LINCOLN COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH STORMS MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH.
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE BRIEFLY AFFECTED BY
OUTFLOW WINDS...MAINLY NEAR BJC OR APA. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND THEN BACK TO DRAINAGE BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTERNOON STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN
TUESDAY...HOWEVER SOME COULD PUSH OFF OVER AIRPORTS LATER AS
MOVEMENT WILL BE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS...BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE
IN STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH IN ISOLATED SPOTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
HYDROLOGY...KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 291705
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1105 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. SOME WEAK
CONVECTION MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF NEBRASKA THAT WILL LIKELY SPARK
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER NRN CO TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE A CORE OF STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXTENDED FM WRN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NERN CO AND
COMBINED WITH A WK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE FAR NERN
PLAINS WHICH MAY LINGER THRU AT LEAST MID MORNING.

AT THE SFC A BNDRY IS FCST TO MOVE INTO NERN CO BY MIDDAY POSSIBLY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER WRN SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH
COULD CLIP THE FAR NERN PLAINS BY EARLY AFTN.  THUS WILL LEAVE IN
LOW POPS OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  AS THE SFC
BNDRY MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS FEATURE MAY TRIGGER A FEW TSTMS
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO LINCOLN COUNTY DURING THE AFTN.

MEANWHILE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FCST
TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER HOWEVER STILL EXPECT SOME WIDELY SCT STORMS BY
LATE MORNING WITH SCT STORMS IN THE AFTN ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-70 INTO SOUTH PARK.  AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO BUT BELIEVE THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AS MID LVL TEMPS ARE FCST TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER.  AS FOR
TEMPS 850-700 MB TEMPS CHANGE LITTLE FM YESTERDAY SO AFTN HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN CO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UTAH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.  THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY
FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS.  WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE PROGGED
ON TUESDAY WITH NORMAL PATTERNS TUESDAY NIGHT.   A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR AND NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IS PROGGED INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN A
WEAK GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME
AROUND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE FOR
WEDNESDAY TOO. PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED IN THE 0.6 TO
1.25 INCH RANGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40 TO LOWER 50S F
RANGE TUESDAY MORNING. THEY INCREASE INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER
60S F BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS SOME CAPE AROUND...THE BEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE DAY TUESDAY
...THEN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS LATE
DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL BOTH
LATE DAY PERIODS...AND MORE SO OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FOR THE
LATE DAY PERIODS BOTH DAYS. WILL GO WITH "SLIGHT CHANCE"S OUT ON
THE PLAINS. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 2-4 C
WARMER THAN TODAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S COOL DOWN 2-5 C.  FOR THE LATER
DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN IT MIGRATES A BIT EASTWARD
TOWARDS COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE IS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...NEXT WEEKEND DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE VEERING AROUND
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL BE LOWER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH MOST ACTIVITY
STAYING IN THE FOOTHILLS...OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND EAST OVER
PLAINS OF LINCOLN COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TAFS TSTM FREE.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND THEN BACK
TO DRAINAGE BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO ONE
HALF INCH RANGE IN STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH IN
ISOLATED SPOTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
HYDROLOGY...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 291705
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1105 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. SOME WEAK
CONVECTION MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF NEBRASKA THAT WILL LIKELY SPARK
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER NRN CO TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE A CORE OF STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXTENDED FM WRN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NERN CO AND
COMBINED WITH A WK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE FAR NERN
PLAINS WHICH MAY LINGER THRU AT LEAST MID MORNING.

AT THE SFC A BNDRY IS FCST TO MOVE INTO NERN CO BY MIDDAY POSSIBLY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER WRN SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH
COULD CLIP THE FAR NERN PLAINS BY EARLY AFTN.  THUS WILL LEAVE IN
LOW POPS OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  AS THE SFC
BNDRY MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS FEATURE MAY TRIGGER A FEW TSTMS
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO LINCOLN COUNTY DURING THE AFTN.

MEANWHILE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FCST
TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER HOWEVER STILL EXPECT SOME WIDELY SCT STORMS BY
LATE MORNING WITH SCT STORMS IN THE AFTN ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-70 INTO SOUTH PARK.  AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO BUT BELIEVE THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AS MID LVL TEMPS ARE FCST TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER.  AS FOR
TEMPS 850-700 MB TEMPS CHANGE LITTLE FM YESTERDAY SO AFTN HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN CO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UTAH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.  THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY
FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS.  WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE PROGGED
ON TUESDAY WITH NORMAL PATTERNS TUESDAY NIGHT.   A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR AND NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IS PROGGED INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN A
WEAK GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME
AROUND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE FOR
WEDNESDAY TOO. PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED IN THE 0.6 TO
1.25 INCH RANGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40 TO LOWER 50S F
RANGE TUESDAY MORNING. THEY INCREASE INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER
60S F BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS SOME CAPE AROUND...THE BEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE DAY TUESDAY
...THEN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS LATE
DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL BOTH
LATE DAY PERIODS...AND MORE SO OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FOR THE
LATE DAY PERIODS BOTH DAYS. WILL GO WITH "SLIGHT CHANCE"S OUT ON
THE PLAINS. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 2-4 C
WARMER THAN TODAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S COOL DOWN 2-5 C.  FOR THE LATER
DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN IT MIGRATES A BIT EASTWARD
TOWARDS COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE IS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...NEXT WEEKEND DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE VEERING AROUND
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL BE LOWER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH MOST ACTIVITY
STAYING IN THE FOOTHILLS...OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND EAST OVER
PLAINS OF LINCOLN COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TAFS TSTM FREE.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND THEN BACK
TO DRAINAGE BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO ONE
HALF INCH RANGE IN STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH IN
ISOLATED SPOTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
HYDROLOGY...RPK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 290939
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
339 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER NRN CO TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE A CORE OF STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXTENDED FM WRN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NERN CO AND
COMBINED WITH A WK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE FAR NERN
PLAINS WHICH MAY LINGER THRU AT LEAST MID MORNING.

AT THE SFC A BNDRY IS FCST TO MOVE INTO NERN CO BY MIDDAY POSSIBLY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER WRN SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH
COULD CLIP THE FAR NERN PLAINS BY EARLY AFTN.  THUS WILL LEAVE IN
LOW POPS OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  AS THE SFC
BNDRY MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS FEATURE MAY TRIGGER A FEW TSTMS
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO LINCOLN COUNTY DURING THE AFTN.

MEANWHILE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FCST
TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER HOWEVER STILL EXPECT SOME WIDELY SCT STORMS BY
LATE MORNING WITH SCT STORMS IN THE AFTN ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-70 INTO SOUTH PARK.  AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO BUT BELIEVE THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AS MID LVL TEMPS ARE FCST TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER.  AS FOR
TEMPS 850-700 MB TEMPS CHANGE LITTLE FM YESTERDAY SO AFTN HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN CO.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UTAH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.  THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY
FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS.  WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE PROGGED
ON TUESDAY WITH NORMAL PATTERNS TUESDAY NIGHT.   A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR AND NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IS PROGGED INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN A
WEAK GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME
AROUND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE FOR
WEDNESDAY TOO. PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED IN THE 0.6 TO
1.25 INCH RANGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40 TO LOWER 50S F
RANGE TUESDAY MORNING. THEY INCREASE INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER
60S F BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS SOME CAPE AROUND...THE BEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE DAY TUESDAY
...THEN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS LATE
DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL BOTH
LATE DAY PERIODS...AND MORE SO OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FOR THE
LATE DAY PERIODS BOTH DAYS. WILL GO WITH "SLIGHT CHANCE"S OUT ON
THE PLAINS. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 2-4 C
WARMER THAN TODAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S COOL DOWN 2-5 C.  FOR THE LATER
DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN IT MIGRATES A BIT EASTWARD
TOWARDS COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE IS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...NEXT WEEKEND DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WERE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING HOWEVER SO FAR IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL STAY EAST OF THE
AIRPORT THRU THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.  WINDS WERE DRAINAGE
EARLY THIS MORNING HOWEVER A BNDRY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY
EATLY AFTN WITH WINDS BECOMING NELY. OVERALL TSTM THREAT LOOKS
MUCH LOWER THIS AFTN AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD STAY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE SO WILL
KEEP TAF TSTM FREE FOR NOW. FOR THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SELY AND THEN BACK TO DRAINAGE BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO ONE
HALF INCH RANGE IN STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH IN
ISOLATED SPOTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 290939
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
339 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER NRN CO TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE A CORE OF STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXTENDED FM WRN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NERN CO AND
COMBINED WITH A WK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE FAR NERN
PLAINS WHICH MAY LINGER THRU AT LEAST MID MORNING.

AT THE SFC A BNDRY IS FCST TO MOVE INTO NERN CO BY MIDDAY POSSIBLY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER WRN SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH
COULD CLIP THE FAR NERN PLAINS BY EARLY AFTN.  THUS WILL LEAVE IN
LOW POPS OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  AS THE SFC
BNDRY MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS FEATURE MAY TRIGGER A FEW TSTMS
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO LINCOLN COUNTY DURING THE AFTN.

MEANWHILE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FCST
TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER HOWEVER STILL EXPECT SOME WIDELY SCT STORMS BY
LATE MORNING WITH SCT STORMS IN THE AFTN ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-70 INTO SOUTH PARK.  AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO BUT BELIEVE THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AS MID LVL TEMPS ARE FCST TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER.  AS FOR
TEMPS 850-700 MB TEMPS CHANGE LITTLE FM YESTERDAY SO AFTN HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN CO.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UTAH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.  THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY
FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS.  WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE PROGGED
ON TUESDAY WITH NORMAL PATTERNS TUESDAY NIGHT.   A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR AND NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IS PROGGED INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN A
WEAK GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME
AROUND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE FOR
WEDNESDAY TOO. PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED IN THE 0.6 TO
1.25 INCH RANGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40 TO LOWER 50S F
RANGE TUESDAY MORNING. THEY INCREASE INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER
60S F BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS SOME CAPE AROUND...THE BEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE DAY TUESDAY
...THEN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS LATE
DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL BOTH
LATE DAY PERIODS...AND MORE SO OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FOR THE
LATE DAY PERIODS BOTH DAYS. WILL GO WITH "SLIGHT CHANCE"S OUT ON
THE PLAINS. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 2-4 C
WARMER THAN TODAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S COOL DOWN 2-5 C.  FOR THE LATER
DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN IT MIGRATES A BIT EASTWARD
TOWARDS COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE IS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...NEXT WEEKEND DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WERE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING HOWEVER SO FAR IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL STAY EAST OF THE
AIRPORT THRU THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.  WINDS WERE DRAINAGE
EARLY THIS MORNING HOWEVER A BNDRY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY
EATLY AFTN WITH WINDS BECOMING NELY. OVERALL TSTM THREAT LOOKS
MUCH LOWER THIS AFTN AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD STAY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE SO WILL
KEEP TAF TSTM FREE FOR NOW. FOR THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SELY AND THEN BACK TO DRAINAGE BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO ONE
HALF INCH RANGE IN STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH IN
ISOLATED SPOTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 290357
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
957 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AS THEY DRIFT SOUTH OUT OF
LINCOLN COUNTY THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STILL A BATCH OF STORMS
IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING THAT MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN BORDER
AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT THEY SHOULD ALSO BE DISSIPATING AT
THAT TIME. LOTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS UPSTREAM AGAIN SO I INCREASED
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS
SHORTLY AFTER NOON. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE BASED CAPES
WILL BE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES
AND DEW POINTS AROUND 50. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND APPROACH AN INCH BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL COME TO AN END
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF
COLORADO AND CONTINUE TO BRING A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY...SO
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AGAIN MONDAY. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY DECREASE MONDAY WITH CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AND LIKELY CAP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
PARK COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MEGA BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE U.S.
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS PROGGED TO DEAMPLIFY/WEAKEN AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES RACE EAST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME OF THIS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO SWING SOUTHEAST OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...EACH
ACCOMPANIED BY A SFC COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW ONE BACKING UP
AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER LATE
ON THURSDAY. BEFORE THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY FLOW INDUCED BY STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING AND STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES SHOULD MANAGE TO
GENERATE A FEW LOW TOP T-STORMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BY
EVENING...A SFC BOUNDARY STALLED OUT ACRS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW T-STORMS OUT THERE
WHICH MAY LINGER UNTIL THE WEE HRS OF THE MORNING.

LATER THIS WEEK...SHOULD SEE T-STORM CHANCES RISING FOR REASONS
MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS. COULD SEE ISOLATED T-STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT RANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SUCH AS SOUTH PARK ON THURSDAY.

BY THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AS IT SLOWLY MIGRATES OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
THIS EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS MORE MONSOON MOISTURE TO
STREAM UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHERN UTAH AND WYOMING. MAY SEE SOME OF THIS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE CURVING SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO ON SUNDAY WHICH
COULD ELEVATE THE T-STORM PROBABILITY OVER THE NRN COLORADO MTNS...
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD START OUT ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HIGH COUNTRY READINGS WILL BE QUITE BALMY AS WELL WITH
60S/70S ON THE MTN SLOPES/RIDGES AND 80S ON THE LOWER VALLEY FLOORS.
LOOK FOR SFC TEMPS ON THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS TO COOL 5-7 DEG F
ON WEDNESDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. DO NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY CHANGE IN MTN/HIGH VALLEY TEMPS.
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...EXPECT FURTHER COOLING WITH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WEST OF THE
DIVIDE DAILY TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER EVEN WITH
THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN PRECIP/T-STORM CHANCES. LOOKING EVEN
FURTHER OUT...EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BE WET/STORMY AROUND HERE WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE FLOWING OVER THE AREA AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STAY TUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 955 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR THROUGH MONDAY. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT 15 TO 20 MPH...SO THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING RAINS WILL BE VERY LOW.

ON MONDAY...JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND PARK COUNTY. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
HYDROLOGY...MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 290357
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
957 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AS THEY DRIFT SOUTH OUT OF
LINCOLN COUNTY THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STILL A BATCH OF STORMS
IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING THAT MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN BORDER
AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT THEY SHOULD ALSO BE DISSIPATING AT
THAT TIME. LOTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS UPSTREAM AGAIN SO I INCREASED
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS
SHORTLY AFTER NOON. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE BASED CAPES
WILL BE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES
AND DEW POINTS AROUND 50. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND APPROACH AN INCH BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL COME TO AN END
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF
COLORADO AND CONTINUE TO BRING A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY...SO
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AGAIN MONDAY. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY DECREASE MONDAY WITH CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AND LIKELY CAP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
PARK COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MEGA BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE U.S.
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS PROGGED TO DEAMPLIFY/WEAKEN AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES RACE EAST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME OF THIS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO SWING SOUTHEAST OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...EACH
ACCOMPANIED BY A SFC COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW ONE BACKING UP
AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER LATE
ON THURSDAY. BEFORE THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY FLOW INDUCED BY STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING AND STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES SHOULD MANAGE TO
GENERATE A FEW LOW TOP T-STORMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BY
EVENING...A SFC BOUNDARY STALLED OUT ACRS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW T-STORMS OUT THERE
WHICH MAY LINGER UNTIL THE WEE HRS OF THE MORNING.

LATER THIS WEEK...SHOULD SEE T-STORM CHANCES RISING FOR REASONS
MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS. COULD SEE ISOLATED T-STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT RANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SUCH AS SOUTH PARK ON THURSDAY.

BY THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AS IT SLOWLY MIGRATES OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
THIS EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS MORE MONSOON MOISTURE TO
STREAM UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHERN UTAH AND WYOMING. MAY SEE SOME OF THIS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE CURVING SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO ON SUNDAY WHICH
COULD ELEVATE THE T-STORM PROBABILITY OVER THE NRN COLORADO MTNS...
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD START OUT ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HIGH COUNTRY READINGS WILL BE QUITE BALMY AS WELL WITH
60S/70S ON THE MTN SLOPES/RIDGES AND 80S ON THE LOWER VALLEY FLOORS.
LOOK FOR SFC TEMPS ON THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS TO COOL 5-7 DEG F
ON WEDNESDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. DO NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY CHANGE IN MTN/HIGH VALLEY TEMPS.
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...EXPECT FURTHER COOLING WITH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WEST OF THE
DIVIDE DAILY TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER EVEN WITH
THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN PRECIP/T-STORM CHANCES. LOOKING EVEN
FURTHER OUT...EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BE WET/STORMY AROUND HERE WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE FLOWING OVER THE AREA AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STAY TUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 955 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR THROUGH MONDAY. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT 15 TO 20 MPH...SO THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING RAINS WILL BE VERY LOW.

ON MONDAY...JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND PARK COUNTY. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
HYDROLOGY...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 290357
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
957 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AS THEY DRIFT SOUTH OUT OF
LINCOLN COUNTY THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STILL A BATCH OF STORMS
IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING THAT MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN BORDER
AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT THEY SHOULD ALSO BE DISSIPATING AT
THAT TIME. LOTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS UPSTREAM AGAIN SO I INCREASED
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS
SHORTLY AFTER NOON. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE BASED CAPES
WILL BE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES
AND DEW POINTS AROUND 50. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND APPROACH AN INCH BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL COME TO AN END
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF
COLORADO AND CONTINUE TO BRING A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY...SO
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AGAIN MONDAY. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY DECREASE MONDAY WITH CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AND LIKELY CAP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
PARK COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MEGA BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE U.S.
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS PROGGED TO DEAMPLIFY/WEAKEN AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES RACE EAST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME OF THIS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO SWING SOUTHEAST OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...EACH
ACCOMPANIED BY A SFC COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW ONE BACKING UP
AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER LATE
ON THURSDAY. BEFORE THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY FLOW INDUCED BY STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING AND STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES SHOULD MANAGE TO
GENERATE A FEW LOW TOP T-STORMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BY
EVENING...A SFC BOUNDARY STALLED OUT ACRS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW T-STORMS OUT THERE
WHICH MAY LINGER UNTIL THE WEE HRS OF THE MORNING.

LATER THIS WEEK...SHOULD SEE T-STORM CHANCES RISING FOR REASONS
MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS. COULD SEE ISOLATED T-STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT RANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SUCH AS SOUTH PARK ON THURSDAY.

BY THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AS IT SLOWLY MIGRATES OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
THIS EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS MORE MONSOON MOISTURE TO
STREAM UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHERN UTAH AND WYOMING. MAY SEE SOME OF THIS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE CURVING SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO ON SUNDAY WHICH
COULD ELEVATE THE T-STORM PROBABILITY OVER THE NRN COLORADO MTNS...
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD START OUT ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HIGH COUNTRY READINGS WILL BE QUITE BALMY AS WELL WITH
60S/70S ON THE MTN SLOPES/RIDGES AND 80S ON THE LOWER VALLEY FLOORS.
LOOK FOR SFC TEMPS ON THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS TO COOL 5-7 DEG F
ON WEDNESDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. DO NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY CHANGE IN MTN/HIGH VALLEY TEMPS.
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...EXPECT FURTHER COOLING WITH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WEST OF THE
DIVIDE DAILY TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER EVEN WITH
THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN PRECIP/T-STORM CHANCES. LOOKING EVEN
FURTHER OUT...EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BE WET/STORMY AROUND HERE WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE FLOWING OVER THE AREA AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STAY TUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 955 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR THROUGH MONDAY. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT 15 TO 20 MPH...SO THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING RAINS WILL BE VERY LOW.

ON MONDAY...JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND PARK COUNTY. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
HYDROLOGY...MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 290357
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
957 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AS THEY DRIFT SOUTH OUT OF
LINCOLN COUNTY THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STILL A BATCH OF STORMS
IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING THAT MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN BORDER
AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT THEY SHOULD ALSO BE DISSIPATING AT
THAT TIME. LOTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS UPSTREAM AGAIN SO I INCREASED
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS
SHORTLY AFTER NOON. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE BASED CAPES
WILL BE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES
AND DEW POINTS AROUND 50. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND APPROACH AN INCH BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL COME TO AN END
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF
COLORADO AND CONTINUE TO BRING A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY...SO
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AGAIN MONDAY. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY DECREASE MONDAY WITH CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AND LIKELY CAP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
PARK COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MEGA BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE U.S.
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS PROGGED TO DEAMPLIFY/WEAKEN AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES RACE EAST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME OF THIS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO SWING SOUTHEAST OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...EACH
ACCOMPANIED BY A SFC COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW ONE BACKING UP
AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER LATE
ON THURSDAY. BEFORE THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY FLOW INDUCED BY STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING AND STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES SHOULD MANAGE TO
GENERATE A FEW LOW TOP T-STORMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BY
EVENING...A SFC BOUNDARY STALLED OUT ACRS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW T-STORMS OUT THERE
WHICH MAY LINGER UNTIL THE WEE HRS OF THE MORNING.

LATER THIS WEEK...SHOULD SEE T-STORM CHANCES RISING FOR REASONS
MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS. COULD SEE ISOLATED T-STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT RANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SUCH AS SOUTH PARK ON THURSDAY.

BY THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AS IT SLOWLY MIGRATES OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
THIS EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS MORE MONSOON MOISTURE TO
STREAM UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHERN UTAH AND WYOMING. MAY SEE SOME OF THIS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE CURVING SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO ON SUNDAY WHICH
COULD ELEVATE THE T-STORM PROBABILITY OVER THE NRN COLORADO MTNS...
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD START OUT ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HIGH COUNTRY READINGS WILL BE QUITE BALMY AS WELL WITH
60S/70S ON THE MTN SLOPES/RIDGES AND 80S ON THE LOWER VALLEY FLOORS.
LOOK FOR SFC TEMPS ON THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS TO COOL 5-7 DEG F
ON WEDNESDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. DO NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY CHANGE IN MTN/HIGH VALLEY TEMPS.
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...EXPECT FURTHER COOLING WITH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WEST OF THE
DIVIDE DAILY TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER EVEN WITH
THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN PRECIP/T-STORM CHANCES. LOOKING EVEN
FURTHER OUT...EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BE WET/STORMY AROUND HERE WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE FLOWING OVER THE AREA AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STAY TUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 955 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR THROUGH MONDAY. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT 15 TO 20 MPH...SO THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING RAINS WILL BE VERY LOW.

ON MONDAY...JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND PARK COUNTY. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
HYDROLOGY...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 282008
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
208 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS
SHORTLY AFTER NOON. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE BASED CAPES
WILL BE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES
AND DEW POINTS AROUND 50. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND APPROACH AN INCH BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL COME TO AN END
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF
COLORADO AND CONTINUE TO BRING A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY...SO
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AGAIN MONDAY. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY DECREASE MONDAY WITH CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AND LIKELY CAP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
PARK COUNTY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MEGA BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE U.S.
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS PROGGED TO DEAMPLIFY/WEAKEN AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES RACE EAST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME OF THIS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO SWING SOUTHEAST OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...EACH
ACCOMPANIED BY A SFC COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW ONE BACKING UP
AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER LATE
ON THURSDAY. BEFORE THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY FLOW INDUCED BY STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING AND STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES SHOULD MANAGE TO
GENERATE A FEW LOW TOP T-STORMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BY
EVENING...A SFC BOUNDARY STALLED OUT ACRS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW T-STORMS OUT THERE
WHICH MAY LINGER UNTIL THE WEE HRS OF THE MORNING.

LATER THIS WEEK...SHOULD SEE T-STORM CHANCES RISING FOR REASONS
MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS. COULD SEE ISOLATED T-STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT RANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SUCH AS SOUTH PARK ON THURSDAY.

BY THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AS IT SLOWLY MIGRATES OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
THIS EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS MORE MONSOON MOISTURE TO
STREAM UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHERN UTAH AND WYOMING. MAY SEE SOME OF THIS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE CURVING SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO ON SUNDAY WHICH
COULD ELEVATE THE T-STORM PROBABILITY OVER THE NRN COLORADO MTNS...
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD START OUT ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HIGH COUNTRY READINGS WILL BE QUITE BALMY AS WELL WITH
60S/70S ON THE MTN SLOPES/RIDGES AND 80S ON THE LOWER VALLEY FLOORS.
LOOK FOR SFC TEMPS ON THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS TO COOL 5-7 DEG F
ON WEDNESDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. DO NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY CHANGE IN MTN/HIGH VALLEY TEMPS.
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...EXPECT FURTHER COOLING WITH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WEST OF THE
DIVIDE DAILY TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER EVEN WITH
THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN PRECIP/T-STORM CHANCES. LOOKING EVEN
FURTHER OUT...EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BE WET/STORMY AROUND HERE WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE FLOWING OVER THE AREA AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STAY TUNE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT UNDER
THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE DENVER AREA BETWEEN 21Z-03Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40
KNOTS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 03-06Z.
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DUE OUTFLOW FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z.

FOR MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEST OF DENVER. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT 15 TO 20 MPH...SO THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING RAINS WILL BE VERY LOW.

ON MONDAY...JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND PARK COUNTY. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 282008
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
208 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS
SHORTLY AFTER NOON. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE BASED CAPES
WILL BE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES
AND DEW POINTS AROUND 50. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND APPROACH AN INCH BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL COME TO AN END
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF
COLORADO AND CONTINUE TO BRING A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY...SO
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AGAIN MONDAY. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY DECREASE MONDAY WITH CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AND LIKELY CAP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
PARK COUNTY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MEGA BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE U.S.
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS PROGGED TO DEAMPLIFY/WEAKEN AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES RACE EAST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME OF THIS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO SWING SOUTHEAST OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...EACH
ACCOMPANIED BY A SFC COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW ONE BACKING UP
AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER LATE
ON THURSDAY. BEFORE THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY FLOW INDUCED BY STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING AND STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES SHOULD MANAGE TO
GENERATE A FEW LOW TOP T-STORMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BY
EVENING...A SFC BOUNDARY STALLED OUT ACRS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW T-STORMS OUT THERE
WHICH MAY LINGER UNTIL THE WEE HRS OF THE MORNING.

LATER THIS WEEK...SHOULD SEE T-STORM CHANCES RISING FOR REASONS
MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS. COULD SEE ISOLATED T-STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT RANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SUCH AS SOUTH PARK ON THURSDAY.

BY THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AS IT SLOWLY MIGRATES OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
THIS EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS MORE MONSOON MOISTURE TO
STREAM UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHERN UTAH AND WYOMING. MAY SEE SOME OF THIS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE CURVING SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO ON SUNDAY WHICH
COULD ELEVATE THE T-STORM PROBABILITY OVER THE NRN COLORADO MTNS...
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD START OUT ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HIGH COUNTRY READINGS WILL BE QUITE BALMY AS WELL WITH
60S/70S ON THE MTN SLOPES/RIDGES AND 80S ON THE LOWER VALLEY FLOORS.
LOOK FOR SFC TEMPS ON THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS TO COOL 5-7 DEG F
ON WEDNESDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. DO NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY CHANGE IN MTN/HIGH VALLEY TEMPS.
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...EXPECT FURTHER COOLING WITH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WEST OF THE
DIVIDE DAILY TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER EVEN WITH
THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN PRECIP/T-STORM CHANCES. LOOKING EVEN
FURTHER OUT...EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BE WET/STORMY AROUND HERE WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE FLOWING OVER THE AREA AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STAY TUNE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT UNDER
THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE DENVER AREA BETWEEN 21Z-03Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40
KNOTS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 03-06Z.
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DUE OUTFLOW FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z.

FOR MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEST OF DENVER. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT 15 TO 20 MPH...SO THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING RAINS WILL BE VERY LOW.

ON MONDAY...JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND PARK COUNTY. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 282008
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
208 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS
SHORTLY AFTER NOON. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE BASED CAPES
WILL BE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES
AND DEW POINTS AROUND 50. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND APPROACH AN INCH BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL COME TO AN END
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF
COLORADO AND CONTINUE TO BRING A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY...SO
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AGAIN MONDAY. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY DECREASE MONDAY WITH CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AND LIKELY CAP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
PARK COUNTY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MEGA BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE U.S.
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS PROGGED TO DEAMPLIFY/WEAKEN AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES RACE EAST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME OF THIS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO SWING SOUTHEAST OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...EACH
ACCOMPANIED BY A SFC COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW ONE BACKING UP
AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER LATE
ON THURSDAY. BEFORE THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY FLOW INDUCED BY STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING AND STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES SHOULD MANAGE TO
GENERATE A FEW LOW TOP T-STORMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BY
EVENING...A SFC BOUNDARY STALLED OUT ACRS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW T-STORMS OUT THERE
WHICH MAY LINGER UNTIL THE WEE HRS OF THE MORNING.

LATER THIS WEEK...SHOULD SEE T-STORM CHANCES RISING FOR REASONS
MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS. COULD SEE ISOLATED T-STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT RANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SUCH AS SOUTH PARK ON THURSDAY.

BY THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AS IT SLOWLY MIGRATES OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
THIS EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS MORE MONSOON MOISTURE TO
STREAM UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHERN UTAH AND WYOMING. MAY SEE SOME OF THIS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE CURVING SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO ON SUNDAY WHICH
COULD ELEVATE THE T-STORM PROBABILITY OVER THE NRN COLORADO MTNS...
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD START OUT ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HIGH COUNTRY READINGS WILL BE QUITE BALMY AS WELL WITH
60S/70S ON THE MTN SLOPES/RIDGES AND 80S ON THE LOWER VALLEY FLOORS.
LOOK FOR SFC TEMPS ON THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS TO COOL 5-7 DEG F
ON WEDNESDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. DO NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY CHANGE IN MTN/HIGH VALLEY TEMPS.
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...EXPECT FURTHER COOLING WITH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WEST OF THE
DIVIDE DAILY TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER EVEN WITH
THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN PRECIP/T-STORM CHANCES. LOOKING EVEN
FURTHER OUT...EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BE WET/STORMY AROUND HERE WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE FLOWING OVER THE AREA AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STAY TUNE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT UNDER
THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE DENVER AREA BETWEEN 21Z-03Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40
KNOTS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 03-06Z.
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DUE OUTFLOW FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z.

FOR MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEST OF DENVER. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT 15 TO 20 MPH...SO THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING RAINS WILL BE VERY LOW.

ON MONDAY...JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND PARK COUNTY. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 282008
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
208 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS
SHORTLY AFTER NOON. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE BASED CAPES
WILL BE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES
AND DEW POINTS AROUND 50. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND APPROACH AN INCH BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL COME TO AN END
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF
COLORADO AND CONTINUE TO BRING A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY...SO
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AGAIN MONDAY. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY DECREASE MONDAY WITH CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AND LIKELY CAP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
PARK COUNTY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MEGA BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE U.S.
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS PROGGED TO DEAMPLIFY/WEAKEN AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES RACE EAST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME OF THIS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO SWING SOUTHEAST OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...EACH
ACCOMPANIED BY A SFC COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW ONE BACKING UP
AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER LATE
ON THURSDAY. BEFORE THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY FLOW INDUCED BY STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING AND STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES SHOULD MANAGE TO
GENERATE A FEW LOW TOP T-STORMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BY
EVENING...A SFC BOUNDARY STALLED OUT ACRS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW T-STORMS OUT THERE
WHICH MAY LINGER UNTIL THE WEE HRS OF THE MORNING.

LATER THIS WEEK...SHOULD SEE T-STORM CHANCES RISING FOR REASONS
MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS. COULD SEE ISOLATED T-STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT RANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SUCH AS SOUTH PARK ON THURSDAY.

BY THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AS IT SLOWLY MIGRATES OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
THIS EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS MORE MONSOON MOISTURE TO
STREAM UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHERN UTAH AND WYOMING. MAY SEE SOME OF THIS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE CURVING SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO ON SUNDAY WHICH
COULD ELEVATE THE T-STORM PROBABILITY OVER THE NRN COLORADO MTNS...
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD START OUT ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HIGH COUNTRY READINGS WILL BE QUITE BALMY AS WELL WITH
60S/70S ON THE MTN SLOPES/RIDGES AND 80S ON THE LOWER VALLEY FLOORS.
LOOK FOR SFC TEMPS ON THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS TO COOL 5-7 DEG F
ON WEDNESDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. DO NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY CHANGE IN MTN/HIGH VALLEY TEMPS.
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...EXPECT FURTHER COOLING WITH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WEST OF THE
DIVIDE DAILY TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER EVEN WITH
THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN PRECIP/T-STORM CHANCES. LOOKING EVEN
FURTHER OUT...EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BE WET/STORMY AROUND HERE WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE FLOWING OVER THE AREA AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STAY TUNE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT UNDER
THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE DENVER AREA BETWEEN 21Z-03Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40
KNOTS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 03-06Z.
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DUE OUTFLOW FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z.

FOR MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEST OF DENVER. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT 15 TO 20 MPH...SO THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING RAINS WILL BE VERY LOW.

ON MONDAY...JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND PARK COUNTY. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 281631
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1031 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY AROUND A HIGH OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. AIRMASS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES PUTTING MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR 90 DEGREES. LATEST HIRES MODEL RUNS SHOW SCATTERED
STORMS FOR LATER TODAY. WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO THE SCATTERED
CATEGORY FOR THE FRONT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. MODELS SHOWING CAPE REACHING 500-1000 J/KG AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEARING AN INCH. EXPECT STORMS TO BE SUB SEVERE
WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WAS ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NRN CO
THIS AFTN AND EVENING.  AS A RESULT MAY SEE A BETTER CHC OF TSTMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  IN ADDITION OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM HIGHER
TERRAIN CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE LATER THIS AFTN
WHICH MAY TRIGGER SOME WIDELY SCT TSTMS AS WELL INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN
CO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE IS TO STAY CENTERED OVER UTAH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE
ELONGATES SOMEWHAT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THERE IS
BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ARE EASTERLY ON MONDAY...THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
DRAINAGE WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK FLOW IS PROGGED ON TUESDAY
...THEN MORE DRAINAGE THE START OF TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TOWARDS WEDNESDAY DAWN. FOR MOISTURE
...THERE IS SOME IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.6 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN DECREASE A BIT TUESDAY MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT VALUES ARE IN THE 0.5 TO 1.25 INCH
RANGE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S F
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THEY INCREASE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE CAPE IS ONLY FAIR AND MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...SAME FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS
LITTLE ON TUESDAY ANYWHERE OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE SMALL AMOUNTS
OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL NOTED ON THE QG FIELDS FOR LATE DAY DAY
MONDAY...BUT ONLY FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. IT IS DRY OVERNIGHT NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...THEN A BIT AGAIN FOR THE WESTERN CWA. THERE
IS A TAD PROGGED OVER THE EASTERN HALF TUESDAY OVERNIGHT. CROSS
SECTION SHOW A PRETTY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP OVER THE CWA BOTH LATE
DAY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH
20-50%S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
10-20%S FOR THE PLAINS LATE DAY TUESDAY ONLY. FOR TEMPERATURES
...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE SIMILAR TO TODAY`S...WITH TUESDAY`S UP 2-4 C
FROM MONDAY`S FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT A BIT WEST AND BE MOSTLY
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN ALL FOUR DAYS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IS OVER THE CWA. THERE WILL BE
SOME MOISTURE...BUT NOTING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DENVER
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
BEING FROM 21Z-01Z. VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY DROP DOWN TO MVFR
IF THE AIRPORTS TAKE A DIRECT HIT FROM A STRONGER STORM.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z. THEN WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE EASTERLY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION
MAY CAUSE WINDS TO TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST FROM 22Z-00Z. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ONCE THE
CONVECTION ENDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER A QUARTER
INCH BUT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP TO ONE HALF INCH.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 281631
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1031 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY AROUND A HIGH OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. AIRMASS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES PUTTING MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR 90 DEGREES. LATEST HIRES MODEL RUNS SHOW SCATTERED
STORMS FOR LATER TODAY. WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO THE SCATTERED
CATEGORY FOR THE FRONT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. MODELS SHOWING CAPE REACHING 500-1000 J/KG AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEARING AN INCH. EXPECT STORMS TO BE SUB SEVERE
WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WAS ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NRN CO
THIS AFTN AND EVENING.  AS A RESULT MAY SEE A BETTER CHC OF TSTMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  IN ADDITION OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM HIGHER
TERRAIN CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE LATER THIS AFTN
WHICH MAY TRIGGER SOME WIDELY SCT TSTMS AS WELL INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN
CO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE IS TO STAY CENTERED OVER UTAH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE
ELONGATES SOMEWHAT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THERE IS
BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ARE EASTERLY ON MONDAY...THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
DRAINAGE WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK FLOW IS PROGGED ON TUESDAY
...THEN MORE DRAINAGE THE START OF TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TOWARDS WEDNESDAY DAWN. FOR MOISTURE
...THERE IS SOME IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.6 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN DECREASE A BIT TUESDAY MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT VALUES ARE IN THE 0.5 TO 1.25 INCH
RANGE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S F
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THEY INCREASE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE CAPE IS ONLY FAIR AND MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...SAME FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS
LITTLE ON TUESDAY ANYWHERE OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE SMALL AMOUNTS
OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL NOTED ON THE QG FIELDS FOR LATE DAY DAY
MONDAY...BUT ONLY FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. IT IS DRY OVERNIGHT NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...THEN A BIT AGAIN FOR THE WESTERN CWA. THERE
IS A TAD PROGGED OVER THE EASTERN HALF TUESDAY OVERNIGHT. CROSS
SECTION SHOW A PRETTY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP OVER THE CWA BOTH LATE
DAY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH
20-50%S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
10-20%S FOR THE PLAINS LATE DAY TUESDAY ONLY. FOR TEMPERATURES
...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE SIMILAR TO TODAY`S...WITH TUESDAY`S UP 2-4 C
FROM MONDAY`S FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT A BIT WEST AND BE MOSTLY
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN ALL FOUR DAYS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IS OVER THE CWA. THERE WILL BE
SOME MOISTURE...BUT NOTING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DENVER
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
BEING FROM 21Z-01Z. VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY DROP DOWN TO MVFR
IF THE AIRPORTS TAKE A DIRECT HIT FROM A STRONGER STORM.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z. THEN WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE EASTERLY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION
MAY CAUSE WINDS TO TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST FROM 22Z-00Z. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ONCE THE
CONVECTION ENDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER A QUARTER
INCH BUT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP TO ONE HALF INCH.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...RPK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 281631
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1031 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY AROUND A HIGH OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. AIRMASS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES PUTTING MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR 90 DEGREES. LATEST HIRES MODEL RUNS SHOW SCATTERED
STORMS FOR LATER TODAY. WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO THE SCATTERED
CATEGORY FOR THE FRONT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. MODELS SHOWING CAPE REACHING 500-1000 J/KG AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEARING AN INCH. EXPECT STORMS TO BE SUB SEVERE
WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WAS ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NRN CO
THIS AFTN AND EVENING.  AS A RESULT MAY SEE A BETTER CHC OF TSTMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  IN ADDITION OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM HIGHER
TERRAIN CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE LATER THIS AFTN
WHICH MAY TRIGGER SOME WIDELY SCT TSTMS AS WELL INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN
CO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE IS TO STAY CENTERED OVER UTAH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE
ELONGATES SOMEWHAT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THERE IS
BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ARE EASTERLY ON MONDAY...THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
DRAINAGE WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK FLOW IS PROGGED ON TUESDAY
...THEN MORE DRAINAGE THE START OF TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TOWARDS WEDNESDAY DAWN. FOR MOISTURE
...THERE IS SOME IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.6 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN DECREASE A BIT TUESDAY MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT VALUES ARE IN THE 0.5 TO 1.25 INCH
RANGE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S F
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THEY INCREASE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE CAPE IS ONLY FAIR AND MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...SAME FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS
LITTLE ON TUESDAY ANYWHERE OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE SMALL AMOUNTS
OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL NOTED ON THE QG FIELDS FOR LATE DAY DAY
MONDAY...BUT ONLY FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. IT IS DRY OVERNIGHT NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...THEN A BIT AGAIN FOR THE WESTERN CWA. THERE
IS A TAD PROGGED OVER THE EASTERN HALF TUESDAY OVERNIGHT. CROSS
SECTION SHOW A PRETTY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP OVER THE CWA BOTH LATE
DAY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH
20-50%S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
10-20%S FOR THE PLAINS LATE DAY TUESDAY ONLY. FOR TEMPERATURES
...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE SIMILAR TO TODAY`S...WITH TUESDAY`S UP 2-4 C
FROM MONDAY`S FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT A BIT WEST AND BE MOSTLY
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN ALL FOUR DAYS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IS OVER THE CWA. THERE WILL BE
SOME MOISTURE...BUT NOTING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DENVER
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
BEING FROM 21Z-01Z. VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY DROP DOWN TO MVFR
IF THE AIRPORTS TAKE A DIRECT HIT FROM A STRONGER STORM.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z. THEN WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE EASTERLY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION
MAY CAUSE WINDS TO TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST FROM 22Z-00Z. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ONCE THE
CONVECTION ENDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER A QUARTER
INCH BUT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP TO ONE HALF INCH.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 281631
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1031 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY AROUND A HIGH OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. AIRMASS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES PUTTING MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR 90 DEGREES. LATEST HIRES MODEL RUNS SHOW SCATTERED
STORMS FOR LATER TODAY. WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO THE SCATTERED
CATEGORY FOR THE FRONT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. MODELS SHOWING CAPE REACHING 500-1000 J/KG AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEARING AN INCH. EXPECT STORMS TO BE SUB SEVERE
WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WAS ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NRN CO
THIS AFTN AND EVENING.  AS A RESULT MAY SEE A BETTER CHC OF TSTMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  IN ADDITION OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM HIGHER
TERRAIN CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE LATER THIS AFTN
WHICH MAY TRIGGER SOME WIDELY SCT TSTMS AS WELL INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN
CO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE IS TO STAY CENTERED OVER UTAH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE
ELONGATES SOMEWHAT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THERE IS
BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ARE EASTERLY ON MONDAY...THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
DRAINAGE WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK FLOW IS PROGGED ON TUESDAY
...THEN MORE DRAINAGE THE START OF TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TOWARDS WEDNESDAY DAWN. FOR MOISTURE
...THERE IS SOME IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.6 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN DECREASE A BIT TUESDAY MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT VALUES ARE IN THE 0.5 TO 1.25 INCH
RANGE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S F
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THEY INCREASE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE CAPE IS ONLY FAIR AND MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...SAME FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS
LITTLE ON TUESDAY ANYWHERE OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE SMALL AMOUNTS
OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL NOTED ON THE QG FIELDS FOR LATE DAY DAY
MONDAY...BUT ONLY FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. IT IS DRY OVERNIGHT NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...THEN A BIT AGAIN FOR THE WESTERN CWA. THERE
IS A TAD PROGGED OVER THE EASTERN HALF TUESDAY OVERNIGHT. CROSS
SECTION SHOW A PRETTY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP OVER THE CWA BOTH LATE
DAY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH
20-50%S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
10-20%S FOR THE PLAINS LATE DAY TUESDAY ONLY. FOR TEMPERATURES
...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE SIMILAR TO TODAY`S...WITH TUESDAY`S UP 2-4 C
FROM MONDAY`S FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT A BIT WEST AND BE MOSTLY
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN ALL FOUR DAYS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IS OVER THE CWA. THERE WILL BE
SOME MOISTURE...BUT NOTING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DENVER
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
BEING FROM 21Z-01Z. VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY DROP DOWN TO MVFR
IF THE AIRPORTS TAKE A DIRECT HIT FROM A STRONGER STORM.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z. THEN WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE EASTERLY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION
MAY CAUSE WINDS TO TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST FROM 22Z-00Z. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ONCE THE
CONVECTION ENDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER A QUARTER
INCH BUT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP TO ONE HALF INCH.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...RPK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 280936
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
336 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WAS ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NRN CO
THIS AFTN AND EVENING.  AS A RESULT MAY SEE A BETTER CHC OF TSTMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  IN ADDITION OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM HIGHER
TERRAIN CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE LATER THIS AFTN
WHICH MAY TRIGGER SOME WIDELY SCT TSTMS AS WELL INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN
CO.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE IS TO STAY CENTERED OVER UTAH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE
ELONGATES SOMEWHAT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THERE IS
BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ARE EASTERLY ON MONDAY...THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
DRAINAGE WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK FLOW IS PROGGED ON TUESDAY
...THEN MORE DRAINAGE THE START OF TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TOWARDS WEDNESDAY DAWN. FOR MOISTURE
...THERE IS SOME IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.6 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN DECREASE A BIT TUESDAY MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT VALUES ARE IN THE 0.5 TO 1.25 INCH
RANGE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S F
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THEY INCREASE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE CAPE IS ONLY FAIR AND MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...SAME FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS
LITTLE ON TUESDAY ANYWHERE OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE SMALL AMOUNTS
OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL NOTED ON THE QG FIELDS FOR LATE DAY DAY
MONDAY...BUT ONLY FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. IT IS DRY OVERNIGHT NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...THEN A BIT AGAIN FOR THE WESTERN CWA. THERE
IS A TAD PROGGED OVER THE EASTERN HALF TUESDAY OVERNIGHT. CROSS
SECTION SHOW A PRETTY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP OVER THE CWA BOTH LATE
DAY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH
20-50%S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
10-20%S FOR THE PLAINS LATE DAY TUESDAY ONLY. FOR TEMPERATURES
...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE SIMILAR TO TODAY`S...WITH TUESDAY`S UP 2-4 C
FROM MONDAY`S FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT A BIT WEST AND BE MOSTLY
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN ALL FOUR DAYS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IS OVER THE CWA. THERE WILL BE
SOME MOISTURE...BUT NOTING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLD TO WLDY SCT TSTMS IN THE 21Z-02Z
TIME PERIOD AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY DROP DOWN
TO MVFR IF THE AIRPORTS TAKE A DIRECT HIT FM A STRONGER STORM.

AS FOR WINDS THEY ARE DRAINAGE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD BECOME
MORE ENE BY 18Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN HOURS BEFORE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS.  WINDS MAY BECOME MORE WLY FOR A FEW HOURS
IN THE 21Z-23Z TIME PERIOD BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO MORE SLY BY 01Z
OR SO.  OVERNIGHT EXPECT WINDS TO BE SSW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER A QUARTER
INCH BUT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP TO ONE HALF INCH.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 280936
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
336 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WAS ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NRN CO
THIS AFTN AND EVENING.  AS A RESULT MAY SEE A BETTER CHC OF TSTMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  IN ADDITION OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM HIGHER
TERRAIN CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE LATER THIS AFTN
WHICH MAY TRIGGER SOME WIDELY SCT TSTMS AS WELL INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN
CO.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE IS TO STAY CENTERED OVER UTAH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE
ELONGATES SOMEWHAT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THERE IS
BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ARE EASTERLY ON MONDAY...THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
DRAINAGE WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK FLOW IS PROGGED ON TUESDAY
...THEN MORE DRAINAGE THE START OF TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TOWARDS WEDNESDAY DAWN. FOR MOISTURE
...THERE IS SOME IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.6 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN DECREASE A BIT TUESDAY MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT VALUES ARE IN THE 0.5 TO 1.25 INCH
RANGE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S F
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THEY INCREASE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE CAPE IS ONLY FAIR AND MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...SAME FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS
LITTLE ON TUESDAY ANYWHERE OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE SMALL AMOUNTS
OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL NOTED ON THE QG FIELDS FOR LATE DAY DAY
MONDAY...BUT ONLY FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. IT IS DRY OVERNIGHT NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...THEN A BIT AGAIN FOR THE WESTERN CWA. THERE
IS A TAD PROGGED OVER THE EASTERN HALF TUESDAY OVERNIGHT. CROSS
SECTION SHOW A PRETTY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP OVER THE CWA BOTH LATE
DAY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH
20-50%S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
10-20%S FOR THE PLAINS LATE DAY TUESDAY ONLY. FOR TEMPERATURES
...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE SIMILAR TO TODAY`S...WITH TUESDAY`S UP 2-4 C
FROM MONDAY`S FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT A BIT WEST AND BE MOSTLY
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN ALL FOUR DAYS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IS OVER THE CWA. THERE WILL BE
SOME MOISTURE...BUT NOTING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLD TO WLDY SCT TSTMS IN THE 21Z-02Z
TIME PERIOD AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY DROP DOWN
TO MVFR IF THE AIRPORTS TAKE A DIRECT HIT FM A STRONGER STORM.

AS FOR WINDS THEY ARE DRAINAGE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD BECOME
MORE ENE BY 18Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN HOURS BEFORE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS.  WINDS MAY BECOME MORE WLY FOR A FEW HOURS
IN THE 21Z-23Z TIME PERIOD BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO MORE SLY BY 01Z
OR SO.  OVERNIGHT EXPECT WINDS TO BE SSW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER A QUARTER
INCH BUT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP TO ONE HALF INCH.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 280238
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
838 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

LAST SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF OUR AREA WINDING DOWN WITH
CLEARING SKIES. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS HOUR...MAINLY FOR
CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS AND THEN A BIT MORE CLOUD LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF US
DRIFTS OVER. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL BE LEFT SO I DID NOT
HIT IT TOO HARD...GENERALLY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AGAIN OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
COLORADO. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TODAY. THE FEW STORMS THAT FORM WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND STAY
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT RANGE. AS CONVECTION DISSIPATES THIS
EVENING... EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. AIRMASS WILL BE
WARMER TONIGHT... SO EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60 DEGREES.

FOR SUNDAY...THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WARM WHICH SHOULD PUT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND NEAR BY PLAINS. JUST
EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
THE STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

EARLY SUMMER HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
PROGGED TO VERY SLOWLY MIGRATE WESTWARD DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND AS IT DOES WEAKEN ALONG THE WAY. MODERATE NORTH-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NERN COLORADO GENERALLY DRY ON MONDAY
AND ANY STORM FORMATION WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO ELEVATED SLOPES
AND RIDGETOPS OF THE FRONT RANGE MTNS LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS START
OUT A FEW DEGS ABOVE ON MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF MORNING AND ERLY
AFTERNOON SOLAR HEATING. REST OF THE WEEK...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY
BECOMES MORE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY AND IN DOING SO BECOMES WETTER
WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BECOMING ENTRENCHED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
CIRCULATION FIELD. MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK SFC FRONTS AND/OR
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRUSHING NERN COLORADO DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST OF THESE SYSTEMS IS
FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREAS EITHER LATE ON WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW AND SHOTS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THESE DISTURBANCES APPEAR TO NUDGE DOWNWARD TEMPERATURES TO
BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND ACCORDING TO THE EUROPEAN
MODEL WHILE THE GFS HANGS ONTO LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER AND ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 838 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE.
WINDS AT KDEN A LITTLE SLOW TO COME AROUND THIS EVENING...BUT
SHOULD GET A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THIS HOUR AND BE FROM THE SOUTH
BY 06Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NO ISSUES EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
HYDROLOGY...MEIER




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