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000
FXUS65 KBOU 051016
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
416 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

BAND OF MOISTURE ACROSS COLORADO WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE AXIS FROM IDAHO INTO WESTERN
COLORADO. GOOD BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WESTERN COLORADO INTO
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE SUPPORTED BY LIFT FROM
THE SHORTWAVE. THERE ARE ALSO GOOD PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THESE
SHOWERS...BUT UPSTREAM IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS GO BACK TO
SOUTHERLY...THE LARGER SCALE COLD FRONT IS BACK AROUND SALT LAKE
CITY AND JUST CREEPING EASTWARD. MODELS SHOW STEADY DRYING BEHIND
THIS WAVE...NOT SO SURE IT WILL BE THAT PRONOUNCED BUT EVEN A
LITTLE DRYING WILL REMOVE THE ALREADY WEAK INSTABILITY. WILL LEAVE
TODAYS FORECAST ALONE OTHER THAN SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE CURRENT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH COULD SURVIVE AND BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OFF THE FRONT RANGE JUST AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT SOME WEAK
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE PLAINS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY THE
REMAINING FORCING ALOFT IN THE MOIST BAND...THIS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY SPRINKLES BUT COULD BE A BIT MORE AT THE END OF THE DAY.

BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRYING ALOFT OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
GOES MORE WESTERLY AND THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. JUST A LITTLE WIND
AND COOLING...BUT AGAIN IT WILL CUT THE STABILITY EVEN FURTHER.
STILL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE TRAPPED AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS
SO HELD ON TO LOW POPS THERE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

MODELS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH IT BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND DECREASING SOMEWHAT. THERE IS WEAK DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY OVER THE CWA SUNDAY...THEN WEAK UPWARD ENERGY IS
PROGGED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOW A WEAK
SURGE AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ON SUNDAY...THEN PRETTY MUCH WEAK
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS LOOK TO DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR MOISTURE...IT IS PRETTY SPARSE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME LATE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE MOSTLY UNDER 0.70 INCH
FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT
INCREASES A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PLAINS GETTING VALUES ABOVE 1.00 INCH. THE CAPE IS
LIMITED TO JUST A BIT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE DAY SUNDAY. THE
CAPE VALUES INCREASE OVER THE CWA LATE DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING...BUT MAINLY OVER THE PLAINS...THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A TAD OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVER THE HIGH COUNTY LATE DAY SUNDAY...AND A BIT MORE OVER MOST
AREAS LATE DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. WILL GO WITH NO POPS
SUNDAY INTO MID DAY MONDAY...THEN 10-20%S LATE DAY AND MONDAY
EVENING. FOR TEMPERATURES ...SUNDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 0-2 C
COOLER THAN TODAY`S. MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE CLOSE TO SUNDAY`S. FOR THE
LATER DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE SOUTH OF COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS FAIRLY WEAK
ZONAL FLOW PROGGED THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN IT BECOMES WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY. THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH PROGGED NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF COLORADO LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND MODELS
HINT AT A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS FOR US ON FRIDAY...WE`LL SEE.
MOISTURE IS POOR THROUGH THE FOUR DAYS...WITH MAYBE SOME MINOR
LATE DAY POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALPINE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
COOLER OFF FRIDAY...MAYBE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD





000
FXUS65 KBOU 051016
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
416 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

BAND OF MOISTURE ACROSS COLORADO WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE AXIS FROM IDAHO INTO WESTERN
COLORADO. GOOD BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WESTERN COLORADO INTO
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE SUPPORTED BY LIFT FROM
THE SHORTWAVE. THERE ARE ALSO GOOD PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THESE
SHOWERS...BUT UPSTREAM IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS GO BACK TO
SOUTHERLY...THE LARGER SCALE COLD FRONT IS BACK AROUND SALT LAKE
CITY AND JUST CREEPING EASTWARD. MODELS SHOW STEADY DRYING BEHIND
THIS WAVE...NOT SO SURE IT WILL BE THAT PRONOUNCED BUT EVEN A
LITTLE DRYING WILL REMOVE THE ALREADY WEAK INSTABILITY. WILL LEAVE
TODAYS FORECAST ALONE OTHER THAN SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE CURRENT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH COULD SURVIVE AND BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OFF THE FRONT RANGE JUST AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT SOME WEAK
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE PLAINS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY THE
REMAINING FORCING ALOFT IN THE MOIST BAND...THIS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY SPRINKLES BUT COULD BE A BIT MORE AT THE END OF THE DAY.

BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRYING ALOFT OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
GOES MORE WESTERLY AND THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. JUST A LITTLE WIND
AND COOLING...BUT AGAIN IT WILL CUT THE STABILITY EVEN FURTHER.
STILL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE TRAPPED AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS
SO HELD ON TO LOW POPS THERE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

MODELS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH IT BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND DECREASING SOMEWHAT. THERE IS WEAK DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY OVER THE CWA SUNDAY...THEN WEAK UPWARD ENERGY IS
PROGGED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOW A WEAK
SURGE AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ON SUNDAY...THEN PRETTY MUCH WEAK
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS LOOK TO DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR MOISTURE...IT IS PRETTY SPARSE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME LATE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE MOSTLY UNDER 0.70 INCH
FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT
INCREASES A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PLAINS GETTING VALUES ABOVE 1.00 INCH. THE CAPE IS
LIMITED TO JUST A BIT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE DAY SUNDAY. THE
CAPE VALUES INCREASE OVER THE CWA LATE DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING...BUT MAINLY OVER THE PLAINS...THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A TAD OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVER THE HIGH COUNTY LATE DAY SUNDAY...AND A BIT MORE OVER MOST
AREAS LATE DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. WILL GO WITH NO POPS
SUNDAY INTO MID DAY MONDAY...THEN 10-20%S LATE DAY AND MONDAY
EVENING. FOR TEMPERATURES ...SUNDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 0-2 C
COOLER THAN TODAY`S. MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE CLOSE TO SUNDAY`S. FOR THE
LATER DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE SOUTH OF COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS FAIRLY WEAK
ZONAL FLOW PROGGED THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN IT BECOMES WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY. THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH PROGGED NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF COLORADO LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND MODELS
HINT AT A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS FOR US ON FRIDAY...WE`LL SEE.
MOISTURE IS POOR THROUGH THE FOUR DAYS...WITH MAYBE SOME MINOR
LATE DAY POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALPINE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
COOLER OFF FRIDAY...MAYBE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 051016
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
416 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

BAND OF MOISTURE ACROSS COLORADO WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE AXIS FROM IDAHO INTO WESTERN
COLORADO. GOOD BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WESTERN COLORADO INTO
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE SUPPORTED BY LIFT FROM
THE SHORTWAVE. THERE ARE ALSO GOOD PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THESE
SHOWERS...BUT UPSTREAM IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS GO BACK TO
SOUTHERLY...THE LARGER SCALE COLD FRONT IS BACK AROUND SALT LAKE
CITY AND JUST CREEPING EASTWARD. MODELS SHOW STEADY DRYING BEHIND
THIS WAVE...NOT SO SURE IT WILL BE THAT PRONOUNCED BUT EVEN A
LITTLE DRYING WILL REMOVE THE ALREADY WEAK INSTABILITY. WILL LEAVE
TODAYS FORECAST ALONE OTHER THAN SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE CURRENT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH COULD SURVIVE AND BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OFF THE FRONT RANGE JUST AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT SOME WEAK
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE PLAINS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY THE
REMAINING FORCING ALOFT IN THE MOIST BAND...THIS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY SPRINKLES BUT COULD BE A BIT MORE AT THE END OF THE DAY.

BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRYING ALOFT OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
GOES MORE WESTERLY AND THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. JUST A LITTLE WIND
AND COOLING...BUT AGAIN IT WILL CUT THE STABILITY EVEN FURTHER.
STILL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE TRAPPED AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS
SO HELD ON TO LOW POPS THERE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

MODELS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH IT BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND DECREASING SOMEWHAT. THERE IS WEAK DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY OVER THE CWA SUNDAY...THEN WEAK UPWARD ENERGY IS
PROGGED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOW A WEAK
SURGE AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ON SUNDAY...THEN PRETTY MUCH WEAK
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS LOOK TO DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR MOISTURE...IT IS PRETTY SPARSE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME LATE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE MOSTLY UNDER 0.70 INCH
FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT
INCREASES A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PLAINS GETTING VALUES ABOVE 1.00 INCH. THE CAPE IS
LIMITED TO JUST A BIT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE DAY SUNDAY. THE
CAPE VALUES INCREASE OVER THE CWA LATE DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING...BUT MAINLY OVER THE PLAINS...THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A TAD OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVER THE HIGH COUNTY LATE DAY SUNDAY...AND A BIT MORE OVER MOST
AREAS LATE DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. WILL GO WITH NO POPS
SUNDAY INTO MID DAY MONDAY...THEN 10-20%S LATE DAY AND MONDAY
EVENING. FOR TEMPERATURES ...SUNDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 0-2 C
COOLER THAN TODAY`S. MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE CLOSE TO SUNDAY`S. FOR THE
LATER DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE SOUTH OF COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS FAIRLY WEAK
ZONAL FLOW PROGGED THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN IT BECOMES WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY. THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH PROGGED NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF COLORADO LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND MODELS
HINT AT A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS FOR US ON FRIDAY...WE`LL SEE.
MOISTURE IS POOR THROUGH THE FOUR DAYS...WITH MAYBE SOME MINOR
LATE DAY POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALPINE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
COOLER OFF FRIDAY...MAYBE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD





000
FXUS65 KBOU 051016
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
416 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

BAND OF MOISTURE ACROSS COLORADO WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE AXIS FROM IDAHO INTO WESTERN
COLORADO. GOOD BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WESTERN COLORADO INTO
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE SUPPORTED BY LIFT FROM
THE SHORTWAVE. THERE ARE ALSO GOOD PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THESE
SHOWERS...BUT UPSTREAM IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS GO BACK TO
SOUTHERLY...THE LARGER SCALE COLD FRONT IS BACK AROUND SALT LAKE
CITY AND JUST CREEPING EASTWARD. MODELS SHOW STEADY DRYING BEHIND
THIS WAVE...NOT SO SURE IT WILL BE THAT PRONOUNCED BUT EVEN A
LITTLE DRYING WILL REMOVE THE ALREADY WEAK INSTABILITY. WILL LEAVE
TODAYS FORECAST ALONE OTHER THAN SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE CURRENT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH COULD SURVIVE AND BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OFF THE FRONT RANGE JUST AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT SOME WEAK
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE PLAINS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY THE
REMAINING FORCING ALOFT IN THE MOIST BAND...THIS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY SPRINKLES BUT COULD BE A BIT MORE AT THE END OF THE DAY.

BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRYING ALOFT OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
GOES MORE WESTERLY AND THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. JUST A LITTLE WIND
AND COOLING...BUT AGAIN IT WILL CUT THE STABILITY EVEN FURTHER.
STILL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE TRAPPED AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS
SO HELD ON TO LOW POPS THERE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

MODELS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH IT BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND DECREASING SOMEWHAT. THERE IS WEAK DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY OVER THE CWA SUNDAY...THEN WEAK UPWARD ENERGY IS
PROGGED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOW A WEAK
SURGE AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ON SUNDAY...THEN PRETTY MUCH WEAK
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS LOOK TO DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR MOISTURE...IT IS PRETTY SPARSE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME LATE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE MOSTLY UNDER 0.70 INCH
FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT
INCREASES A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PLAINS GETTING VALUES ABOVE 1.00 INCH. THE CAPE IS
LIMITED TO JUST A BIT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE DAY SUNDAY. THE
CAPE VALUES INCREASE OVER THE CWA LATE DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING...BUT MAINLY OVER THE PLAINS...THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A TAD OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVER THE HIGH COUNTY LATE DAY SUNDAY...AND A BIT MORE OVER MOST
AREAS LATE DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. WILL GO WITH NO POPS
SUNDAY INTO MID DAY MONDAY...THEN 10-20%S LATE DAY AND MONDAY
EVENING. FOR TEMPERATURES ...SUNDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 0-2 C
COOLER THAN TODAY`S. MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE CLOSE TO SUNDAY`S. FOR THE
LATER DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE SOUTH OF COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS FAIRLY WEAK
ZONAL FLOW PROGGED THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN IT BECOMES WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY. THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH PROGGED NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF COLORADO LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND MODELS
HINT AT A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS FOR US ON FRIDAY...WE`LL SEE.
MOISTURE IS POOR THROUGH THE FOUR DAYS...WITH MAYBE SOME MINOR
LATE DAY POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALPINE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
COOLER OFF FRIDAY...MAYBE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 050225
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
825 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MORE CLOUD ENHANCEMENT MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO ALONG SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
STRONG 80-90 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM
GOING. OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH THE SHOWERS ALREADY
IN THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD
OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME MAKING
THEIR WAY OVER THE PLAINS MAINLY WEST OF I-25 AND NORTH OVER
LARIMER COUNTY. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL HELP TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE PLAINS MOSTLY DRY BUT SOME
STORMS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE URBAN CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR THE
PLAINS AND 50S TO 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST-
NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT A LITTLE
MORE WESTERLY AND PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER
AND PLAN ON KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY.
MAYBE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE
DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVE ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
PALMER DIVIDE.

THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE WESTWARD NEXT
WEEK AND EVENTUALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY. EXPECT THIS
TO BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT THIS BRINGING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS SO WILL HAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE
DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 825 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT SO
NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION EXPECTED...AND CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL ALSO
BE QUITE HIGH WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL.
WINDS SETTLING DOWN AND BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN TRENDING SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING APPEAR A
LITTLE LESS THAN TODAY...BUT COULD STILL SEE GUSTY WINDS/ISOLATED
THUNDER THREAT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS65 KBOU 050225
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
825 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MORE CLOUD ENHANCEMENT MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO ALONG SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
STRONG 80-90 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM
GOING. OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH THE SHOWERS ALREADY
IN THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD
OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME MAKING
THEIR WAY OVER THE PLAINS MAINLY WEST OF I-25 AND NORTH OVER
LARIMER COUNTY. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL HELP TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE PLAINS MOSTLY DRY BUT SOME
STORMS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE URBAN CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR THE
PLAINS AND 50S TO 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST-
NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT A LITTLE
MORE WESTERLY AND PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER
AND PLAN ON KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY.
MAYBE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE
DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVE ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
PALMER DIVIDE.

THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE WESTWARD NEXT
WEEK AND EVENTUALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY. EXPECT THIS
TO BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT THIS BRINGING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS SO WILL HAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE
DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 825 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT SO
NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION EXPECTED...AND CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL ALSO
BE QUITE HIGH WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL.
WINDS SETTLING DOWN AND BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN TRENDING SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING APPEAR A
LITTLE LESS THAN TODAY...BUT COULD STILL SEE GUSTY WINDS/ISOLATED
THUNDER THREAT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 042000
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
200 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME MAKING
THEIR WAY OVER THE PLAINS MAINLY WEST OF I-25 AND NORTH OVER
LARIMER COUNTY. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL HELP TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE PLAINS MOSTLY DRY BUT SOME
STORMS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE URBAN CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR THE
PLAINS AND 50S TO 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST-
NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT A LITTLE
MORE WESTERLY AND PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER
AND PLAN ON KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY.
MAYBE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE
DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVE ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
PALMER DIVIDE.

THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE WESTWARD NEXT
WEEK AND EVENTUALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY. EXPECT THIS
TO BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT THIS BRINGING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS SO WILL HAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE
DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
BETWEEN 23 AND 02Z WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 MPH INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. CEILINGS WILL GET DOWN TO AROUND 080 WITH THE ONSET OF THE
SHOWERS AND WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY
06Z TO 07Z THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS REMAINING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 042000
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
200 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME MAKING
THEIR WAY OVER THE PLAINS MAINLY WEST OF I-25 AND NORTH OVER
LARIMER COUNTY. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL HELP TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE PLAINS MOSTLY DRY BUT SOME
STORMS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE URBAN CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR THE
PLAINS AND 50S TO 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST-
NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT A LITTLE
MORE WESTERLY AND PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER
AND PLAN ON KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY.
MAYBE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE
DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVE ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
PALMER DIVIDE.

THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE WESTWARD NEXT
WEEK AND EVENTUALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY. EXPECT THIS
TO BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT THIS BRINGING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS SO WILL HAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE
DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
BETWEEN 23 AND 02Z WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 MPH INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. CEILINGS WILL GET DOWN TO AROUND 080 WITH THE ONSET OF THE
SHOWERS AND WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY
06Z TO 07Z THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS REMAINING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 041610
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1010 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER
THE SW PORTIONS OF THE STATE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH BRINGING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON
TO 1 PM CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. OVER THE PLAINS THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITHIN THE MODELS OF THE STRENGTH OF THE LEE TROUGH. THE HRRR
SEEMS TO BE OVER-DOING THE MOISTURE BRINGING THE MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP SCENARIO...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE PLAINS WITH INCREASED CHANCES CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS.
WITH SOLAR INFLUENCE THIS MORNING DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER COMBINED
WITH POTENTIAL OUTFLOWS FROM THE NE...DENVER COULD SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS TODAY WHILE THE
PLAINS MAY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING OVER THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTH TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND A DEEP EARLY SEASON TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOISTURE AMOUNTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
COMPARABLE TO THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT A POSSIBLE CONNECTION TO
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IS GOING TO NEED TO BE MONITORED. DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM KEVIN APPEARS LIKE IT WILL NOT ARRIVE OVER COLORADO
UNTIL TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...THE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS
WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ON THE PLAINS...THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY
WHILE THE NAM BRINGS A BAND OF SHOWERS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL
STICK WITH A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN CASE THE NAM IS
RIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WHILE WINDS FURTHER ALOFT ARE MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THIS FLOW PATTERN MAY MAKE IT HARD FOR
MANY SHOWERS TO BEGIN TRACKING EASTERLY AND OUT OVER THE PLAINS.

THE NEARLY MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN MAY LEAD TO SOME TRAINING
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...BUT THIS WILL NOT BECOME A PROBLEM
UNTIL MOISTURE FROM T.S. KEVIN ARRIVES. OTHER THAN THAT...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY...A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS ON THE INCREASE. THE FLOW BECOMES
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
NEARS COLORADO AND WEAKENS. THE JET LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ARE AROUND
80 KNOTS OVER THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY ON THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS FOR THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THEN ALL
DOWNWARD ENERGY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS DECENT ENERGY
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BUT IT IS ALL NORTH OF COLORADO. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE SOME DOWNSLOPING TO THEM FOR SATURDAY
...THEN NORMAL DRAINAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE IS PROGGED ON SUNDAY...THEN WEAK DRAINAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...THEN IT DRIES OUT PRETTY GOOD EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE STILL SOME PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ABOVE ONE INCH OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN THEY DECREASES INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE BY
LATE DAY SUNDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPE AROUND LATE DAY SATURDAY
...BUT NOTHING IN THE SUBSIDENCE BY LATE DAY SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS LATE DAY SATURDAY AND THEN
NOTHING FOR LATE DAY SUNDAY. SO FOR POPS WILL GO WITH 10-40%S FOR
LATE DAY SATURDAY...THEN NOTHING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR
TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-15. C WARMER THAN TODAY`S
EXPECTED HIGHS. FOR THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS KEEP PRETTY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN WEAKER ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THERE IS A COLD FRONT TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS
NOT VERY GOOD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE BEST ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS ONCE AGAIN
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AIRPORT LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BETWEEN 23 AND 02Z. CEILINGS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 080 WITH BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 MPH BEING
THE MAIN THREATS. WINDS WILL RETURN TO DRAINAGE BY THE EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 041610
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1010 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER
THE SW PORTIONS OF THE STATE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH BRINGING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON
TO 1 PM CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. OVER THE PLAINS THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITHIN THE MODELS OF THE STRENGTH OF THE LEE TROUGH. THE HRRR
SEEMS TO BE OVER-DOING THE MOISTURE BRINGING THE MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP SCENARIO...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE PLAINS WITH INCREASED CHANCES CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS.
WITH SOLAR INFLUENCE THIS MORNING DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER COMBINED
WITH POTENTIAL OUTFLOWS FROM THE NE...DENVER COULD SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS TODAY WHILE THE
PLAINS MAY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING OVER THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTH TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND A DEEP EARLY SEASON TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOISTURE AMOUNTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
COMPARABLE TO THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT A POSSIBLE CONNECTION TO
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IS GOING TO NEED TO BE MONITORED. DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM KEVIN APPEARS LIKE IT WILL NOT ARRIVE OVER COLORADO
UNTIL TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...THE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS
WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ON THE PLAINS...THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY
WHILE THE NAM BRINGS A BAND OF SHOWERS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL
STICK WITH A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN CASE THE NAM IS
RIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WHILE WINDS FURTHER ALOFT ARE MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THIS FLOW PATTERN MAY MAKE IT HARD FOR
MANY SHOWERS TO BEGIN TRACKING EASTERLY AND OUT OVER THE PLAINS.

THE NEARLY MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN MAY LEAD TO SOME TRAINING
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...BUT THIS WILL NOT BECOME A PROBLEM
UNTIL MOISTURE FROM T.S. KEVIN ARRIVES. OTHER THAN THAT...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY...A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS ON THE INCREASE. THE FLOW BECOMES
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
NEARS COLORADO AND WEAKENS. THE JET LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ARE AROUND
80 KNOTS OVER THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY ON THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS FOR THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THEN ALL
DOWNWARD ENERGY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS DECENT ENERGY
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BUT IT IS ALL NORTH OF COLORADO. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE SOME DOWNSLOPING TO THEM FOR SATURDAY
...THEN NORMAL DRAINAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE IS PROGGED ON SUNDAY...THEN WEAK DRAINAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...THEN IT DRIES OUT PRETTY GOOD EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE STILL SOME PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ABOVE ONE INCH OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN THEY DECREASES INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE BY
LATE DAY SUNDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPE AROUND LATE DAY SATURDAY
...BUT NOTHING IN THE SUBSIDENCE BY LATE DAY SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS LATE DAY SATURDAY AND THEN
NOTHING FOR LATE DAY SUNDAY. SO FOR POPS WILL GO WITH 10-40%S FOR
LATE DAY SATURDAY...THEN NOTHING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR
TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-15. C WARMER THAN TODAY`S
EXPECTED HIGHS. FOR THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS KEEP PRETTY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN WEAKER ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THERE IS A COLD FRONT TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS
NOT VERY GOOD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE BEST ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS ONCE AGAIN
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AIRPORT LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BETWEEN 23 AND 02Z. CEILINGS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 080 WITH BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 MPH BEING
THE MAIN THREATS. WINDS WILL RETURN TO DRAINAGE BY THE EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 041022
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
422 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS TODAY WHILE THE
PLAINS MAY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING OVER THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTH TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND A DEEP EARLY SEASON TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOISTURE AMOUNTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
COMPARABLE TO THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT A POSSIBLE CONNECTION TO
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IS GOING TO NEED TO BE MONITORED. DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM KEVIN APPEARS LIKE IT WILL NOT ARRIVE OVER COLORADO
UNTIL TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...THE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS
WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ON THE PLAINS...THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY
WHILE THE NAM BRINGS A BAND OF SHOWERS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL
STICK WITH A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN CASE THE NAM IS
RIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WHILE WINDS FURTHER ALOFT ARE MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THIS FLOW PATTERN MAY MAKE IT HARD FOR
MANY SHOWERS TO BEGIN TRACKING EASTERLY AND OUT OVER THE PLAINS.

THE NEARLY MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN MAY LEAD TO SOME TRAINING
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...BUT THIS WILL NOT BECOME A PROBLEM
UNTIL MOISTURE FROM T.S. KEVIN ARRIVES. OTHER THAN THAT...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY...A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS ON THE INCREASE. THE FLOW BECOMES
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
NEARS COLORADO AND WEAKENS. THE JET LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ARE AROUND
80 KNOTS OVER THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY ON THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS FOR THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THEN ALL
DOWNWARD ENERGY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS DECENT ENERGY
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BUT IT IS ALL NORTH OF COLORADO. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE SOME DOWNSLOPING TO THEM FOR SATURDAY
...THEN NORMAL DRAINAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE IS PROGGED ON SUNDAY...THEN WEAK DRAINAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...THEN IT DRIES OUT PRETTY GOOD EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE STILL SOME PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ABOVE ONE INCH OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN THEY DECREASES INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE BY
LATE DAY SUNDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPE AROUND LATE DAY SATURDAY
...BUT NOTHING IN THE SUBSIDENCE BY LATE DAY SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS LATE DAY SATURDAY AND THEN
NOTHING FOR LATE DAY SUNDAY. SO FOR POPS WILL GO WITH 10-40%S FOR
LATE DAY SATURDAY...THEN NOTHING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR
TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-15. C WARMER THAN TODAY`S
EXPECTED HIGHS. FOR THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS KEEP PRETTY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN WEAKER ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THERE IS A COLD FRONT TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS
NOT VERY GOOD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE BEST ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. NO
AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
ALSO SPREAD OVER THE DENVER METRO AREA...BUT LESS ACTIVITY THAN
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT IS GOING TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL DECREASE THE TENDENCY FOR STORMS
TO DEVELOP THE EASTWARD PUSH NECESSARY TO BEGIN MOVING ONTO THE
PLAINS. KBJC AND KAPA WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THAN OUT AT KDEN. TAFS WILL STICK WITH THE MENTION OF VCSH
SINCE THE CHANCES OF A THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS ANY OF THE
AIRPORTS IS ONLY ABOUT 10 PERCENT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN
LATER THIS EVENING...AFTER ANY SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE DENVER AREA
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...DANKERS





000
FXUS65 KBOU 041022
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
422 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS TODAY WHILE THE
PLAINS MAY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING OVER THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTH TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND A DEEP EARLY SEASON TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOISTURE AMOUNTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
COMPARABLE TO THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT A POSSIBLE CONNECTION TO
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IS GOING TO NEED TO BE MONITORED. DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM KEVIN APPEARS LIKE IT WILL NOT ARRIVE OVER COLORADO
UNTIL TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...THE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS
WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ON THE PLAINS...THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY
WHILE THE NAM BRINGS A BAND OF SHOWERS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL
STICK WITH A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN CASE THE NAM IS
RIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WHILE WINDS FURTHER ALOFT ARE MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THIS FLOW PATTERN MAY MAKE IT HARD FOR
MANY SHOWERS TO BEGIN TRACKING EASTERLY AND OUT OVER THE PLAINS.

THE NEARLY MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN MAY LEAD TO SOME TRAINING
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...BUT THIS WILL NOT BECOME A PROBLEM
UNTIL MOISTURE FROM T.S. KEVIN ARRIVES. OTHER THAN THAT...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY...A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS ON THE INCREASE. THE FLOW BECOMES
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
NEARS COLORADO AND WEAKENS. THE JET LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ARE AROUND
80 KNOTS OVER THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY ON THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS FOR THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THEN ALL
DOWNWARD ENERGY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS DECENT ENERGY
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BUT IT IS ALL NORTH OF COLORADO. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE SOME DOWNSLOPING TO THEM FOR SATURDAY
...THEN NORMAL DRAINAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE IS PROGGED ON SUNDAY...THEN WEAK DRAINAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...THEN IT DRIES OUT PRETTY GOOD EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE STILL SOME PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ABOVE ONE INCH OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN THEY DECREASES INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE BY
LATE DAY SUNDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPE AROUND LATE DAY SATURDAY
...BUT NOTHING IN THE SUBSIDENCE BY LATE DAY SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS LATE DAY SATURDAY AND THEN
NOTHING FOR LATE DAY SUNDAY. SO FOR POPS WILL GO WITH 10-40%S FOR
LATE DAY SATURDAY...THEN NOTHING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR
TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-15. C WARMER THAN TODAY`S
EXPECTED HIGHS. FOR THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS KEEP PRETTY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN WEAKER ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THERE IS A COLD FRONT TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS
NOT VERY GOOD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE BEST ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. NO
AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
ALSO SPREAD OVER THE DENVER METRO AREA...BUT LESS ACTIVITY THAN
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT IS GOING TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL DECREASE THE TENDENCY FOR STORMS
TO DEVELOP THE EASTWARD PUSH NECESSARY TO BEGIN MOVING ONTO THE
PLAINS. KBJC AND KAPA WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THAN OUT AT KDEN. TAFS WILL STICK WITH THE MENTION OF VCSH
SINCE THE CHANCES OF A THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS ANY OF THE
AIRPORTS IS ONLY ABOUT 10 PERCENT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN
LATER THIS EVENING...AFTER ANY SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE DENVER AREA
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 040303
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
903 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONVECTION IS ALL BUT FINISHED ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS WITH SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REMAINING AREAS. THESE SHOULD FINISH BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHER THAN THAT THINGS SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. HRRR AND RAP
SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST REACHES OF
THE CWA BY MID MORNING WITH ALL AREAS HAVING A THREAT OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATELLITE SHOWING INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION WITH THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED ENERGY FROM THE SW. INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
HELPED TO BRING PW VALUES BACK UP CLOSE TO 1 INCH WITH ENOUGH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THE DISTURBANCE THERE IS CLEARING THAT WILL HELP TO BRING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON STORMS. INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE PREFERABLE JET STREAK REGION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
FOOTHILLS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY...SO IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AFTER DRYING EARLY FRIDAY...AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN UP AGAIN
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND AN INCH OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. THE WAVE WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE
THROUGH...SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOW. INCREASED POPS
FOR THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY EVENING. ON SATURDAY...MODELS VARY ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOIST OVER THE AREA...BUT ENOUGH SHOULD BE AROUND FOR MORE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN WESTERLY AND PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE FEW
DEGREES COOLER BEHIND IT. AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A LITTLE QPF OVER FAR NORTHEAST
COLORADO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY DUE TO THE JET. AIRMASS
MAY BE TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION THOUGH. WILL KEEP SILENT POPS IN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD MONDAY. THIS WESTERLY FLOW
MAY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ELEVATED THE FIRE DANGER.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF COLORADO AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE BEHIND IT. WILL GO
WITH LOW POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THIS.

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EXPECT THIS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONVECTION FINISHED FOR THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY TO DRAINAGE
WINDS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ET
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...ET




000
FXUS65 KBOU 040303
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
903 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONVECTION IS ALL BUT FINISHED ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS WITH SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REMAINING AREAS. THESE SHOULD FINISH BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHER THAN THAT THINGS SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. HRRR AND RAP
SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST REACHES OF
THE CWA BY MID MORNING WITH ALL AREAS HAVING A THREAT OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATELLITE SHOWING INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION WITH THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED ENERGY FROM THE SW. INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
HELPED TO BRING PW VALUES BACK UP CLOSE TO 1 INCH WITH ENOUGH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THE DISTURBANCE THERE IS CLEARING THAT WILL HELP TO BRING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON STORMS. INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE PREFERABLE JET STREAK REGION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
FOOTHILLS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY...SO IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AFTER DRYING EARLY FRIDAY...AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN UP AGAIN
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND AN INCH OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. THE WAVE WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE
THROUGH...SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOW. INCREASED POPS
FOR THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY EVENING. ON SATURDAY...MODELS VARY ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOIST OVER THE AREA...BUT ENOUGH SHOULD BE AROUND FOR MORE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN WESTERLY AND PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE FEW
DEGREES COOLER BEHIND IT. AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A LITTLE QPF OVER FAR NORTHEAST
COLORADO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY DUE TO THE JET. AIRMASS
MAY BE TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION THOUGH. WILL KEEP SILENT POPS IN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD MONDAY. THIS WESTERLY FLOW
MAY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ELEVATED THE FIRE DANGER.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF COLORADO AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE BEHIND IT. WILL GO
WITH LOW POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THIS.

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EXPECT THIS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONVECTION FINISHED FOR THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY TO DRAINAGE
WINDS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ET
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...ET





000
FXUS65 KBOU 032047
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
247 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATELLITE SHOWING INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION WITH THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED ENERGY FROM THE SW. INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
HELPED TO BRING PW VALUES BACK UP CLOSE TO 1 INCH WITH ENOUGH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THE DISTURBANCE THERE IS CLEARING THAT WILL HELP TO BRING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON STORMS. INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE PREFERABLE JET STREAK REGION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
FOOTHILLS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY...SO IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AFTER DRYING EARLY FRIDAY...AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN UP AGAIN
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND AN INCH OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. THE WAVE WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE
THROUGH...SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOW. INCREASED POPS
FOR THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY EVENING. ON SATURDAY...MODELS VARY ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOIST OVER THE AREA...BUT ENOUGH SHOULD BE AROUND FOR MORE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN WESTERLY AND PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE FEW
DEGREES COOLER BEHIND IT. AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A LITTLE QPF OVER FAR NORTHEAST
COLORADO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY DUE TO THE JET. AIRMASS
MAY BE TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION THOUGH. WILL KEEP SILENT POPS IN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD MONDAY. THIS WESTERLY FLOW
MAY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ELEVATED THE FIRE DANGER.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF COLORADO AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE BEHIND IT. WILL GO
WITH LOW POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THIS.

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EXPECT THIS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WITH SOME HEATING BEFORE THE
NEXT SURGE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. BKN TO
OVC DECK WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING BUT WILL ONLY DROP TO 070
OR 080. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RETURN TO DRAINAGE WITH A GRADUAL
SCATTERING OUT. FOR FRIDAY LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING CLOUD DECK BY
14Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 032047
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
247 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATELLITE SHOWING INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION WITH THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED ENERGY FROM THE SW. INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
HELPED TO BRING PW VALUES BACK UP CLOSE TO 1 INCH WITH ENOUGH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THE DISTURBANCE THERE IS CLEARING THAT WILL HELP TO BRING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON STORMS. INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE PREFERABLE JET STREAK REGION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
FOOTHILLS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY...SO IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AFTER DRYING EARLY FRIDAY...AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN UP AGAIN
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND AN INCH OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. THE WAVE WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE
THROUGH...SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOW. INCREASED POPS
FOR THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY EVENING. ON SATURDAY...MODELS VARY ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOIST OVER THE AREA...BUT ENOUGH SHOULD BE AROUND FOR MORE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN WESTERLY AND PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE FEW
DEGREES COOLER BEHIND IT. AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A LITTLE QPF OVER FAR NORTHEAST
COLORADO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY DUE TO THE JET. AIRMASS
MAY BE TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION THOUGH. WILL KEEP SILENT POPS IN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD MONDAY. THIS WESTERLY FLOW
MAY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ELEVATED THE FIRE DANGER.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF COLORADO AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE BEHIND IT. WILL GO
WITH LOW POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THIS.

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EXPECT THIS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WITH SOME HEATING BEFORE THE
NEXT SURGE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. BKN TO
OVC DECK WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING BUT WILL ONLY DROP TO 070
OR 080. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RETURN TO DRAINAGE WITH A GRADUAL
SCATTERING OUT. FOR FRIDAY LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING CLOUD DECK BY
14Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 031558
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
958 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN BRANCH OF ENERGY MOVING NE OUT
OF THE SW PORTION OF THE STATE. LIGHTING IS INDICATED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS MOVING INTO SUMMIT AND PARK
COUNTIES AT THIS HOUR. HAVE INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING AS WELL AS
SKY TO BETTER REPRESENT THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THIS MORNING. ALONG WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER DROPPED
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S FROM THE UPPER 80S AS UPSTREAM
SAT DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CLEARING UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
CONTINUING INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR STORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER DENVER BETWEEN 7 AND
8 PM THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND INCREASED MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE STATE HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN OUT ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTNING DETECTION HAS
ALREADY RECORDED SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...AND THE KGJX RADAR IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTHWARD. HAVE BUMPED THE POPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS UP TO LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER PARTS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ON THE PLAINS SHOW A
BIT OF AN INVERTED-VEE PATTERN...INDICATIVE OF MORE GUSTY WINDS
THAN HEAVY RAIN. SOUNDINGS OVER THE MOUNTAIN SHOW DEEPER SATURATED
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE JET BEING IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION TO ENHANCE CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY SINCE SKIES WILL
BE GETTING CLOUDY BY MID-AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WITH DRYING CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN SSW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
ON FRI AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FM 0.5"-0.7" OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS.  WILL KEEP SCT
POPS IN THE MTNS HOWEVER NOT SURE ABOUT OVERALL COVERAGE OVER THE
PLAINS.  FOR NOW WILL MENTION A CHC CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH A
SLIGHT CHC FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL
REMAIN ABV NORMAL ACROSS NERN CO WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

ON SAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH
INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE MAIN PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER
ERN COLORADO. STILL NOT SURE HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SO WILL ONLY
MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS OVER THE AREA. AS FOR HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN READINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN
CO.

BY SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
WITH DRY WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  A WK COOL FNT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NERN CO DURING THE DAY HOWEVER 850-700 MB TEMPS ONLY DROP A
DEGREE OR TWO SO AFTN HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THIS WK FNT IS LACKING SO WILL NOT MENTION
ANY TSTMS.  WITH INCREASING LOW LVL FLOW AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON MON DRY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FIRE DANGER
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.  OVER NERN CO A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL BE IN
PLACE WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY DAY OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF DOES SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
FAR ERN PLAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING
STORMS ALONG A WK CONVERGENCE ZN.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER NERN CO.

BY TUE THE ECMWF SHOWS DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
COLD FNT MOVING ACROSS NERN CO. MEANWHILE THE GFS MOVES ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH DRY WSW FLOW
ALOFT AND HOLDS OFF THIS FNT UNTIL TUE NIGHT. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF
THE GFS HAD THIS TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE ALONG
WITH A WK FNT MOVING INTO NERN CO BY AFTN. THUS THIS SETUP WOULD
HAVE PRODUCED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WHILE THE LATEST
SOLUTION HAS NOTHING. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF DID NOT SHOW THE
COLD FNT MOVING INTO TUE NIGHT AND HAD ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS FOR SOME WDLY SCT STORMS.  AT THIS POINT WILL
LEAVE PREVIOUS FCST ALONE AND KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FCST WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR WED DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPOSED TO BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER
THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THEIR SFC SOLUTIONS.  THE GFS SHOWS
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO NERN CO BEHIND A FNT WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A LEE TROUGH OVER
ERN CO WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. ONCE AGAIN NOT SURE WHICH WAY TO
LEAN SO WILL JUST GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR CEILINGS AND VIS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MOVED UP THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAIN ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
PARK COUNTY AT THIS HOUR AND EXPECT IT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z THEN AGAIN BETWEEN
21 AND 02Z THIS AFTERNOON. BKN TO OVC DECK WILL GET DOWN TO 070
OR 080 WITH POSSIBLE GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH WITH THE STORMS. STORMS
SHOULD START TO MOVE TO THE NE AROUND 02Z WITH CEILINGS REMAINING
THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 031558
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
958 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN BRANCH OF ENERGY MOVING NE OUT
OF THE SW PORTION OF THE STATE. LIGHTING IS INDICATED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS MOVING INTO SUMMIT AND PARK
COUNTIES AT THIS HOUR. HAVE INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING AS WELL AS
SKY TO BETTER REPRESENT THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THIS MORNING. ALONG WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER DROPPED
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S FROM THE UPPER 80S AS UPSTREAM
SAT DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CLEARING UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
CONTINUING INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR STORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER DENVER BETWEEN 7 AND
8 PM THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND INCREASED MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE STATE HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN OUT ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTNING DETECTION HAS
ALREADY RECORDED SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...AND THE KGJX RADAR IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTHWARD. HAVE BUMPED THE POPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS UP TO LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER PARTS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ON THE PLAINS SHOW A
BIT OF AN INVERTED-VEE PATTERN...INDICATIVE OF MORE GUSTY WINDS
THAN HEAVY RAIN. SOUNDINGS OVER THE MOUNTAIN SHOW DEEPER SATURATED
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE JET BEING IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION TO ENHANCE CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY SINCE SKIES WILL
BE GETTING CLOUDY BY MID-AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WITH DRYING CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN SSW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
ON FRI AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FM 0.5"-0.7" OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS.  WILL KEEP SCT
POPS IN THE MTNS HOWEVER NOT SURE ABOUT OVERALL COVERAGE OVER THE
PLAINS.  FOR NOW WILL MENTION A CHC CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH A
SLIGHT CHC FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL
REMAIN ABV NORMAL ACROSS NERN CO WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

ON SAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH
INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE MAIN PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER
ERN COLORADO. STILL NOT SURE HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SO WILL ONLY
MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS OVER THE AREA. AS FOR HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN READINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN
CO.

BY SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
WITH DRY WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  A WK COOL FNT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NERN CO DURING THE DAY HOWEVER 850-700 MB TEMPS ONLY DROP A
DEGREE OR TWO SO AFTN HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THIS WK FNT IS LACKING SO WILL NOT MENTION
ANY TSTMS.  WITH INCREASING LOW LVL FLOW AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON MON DRY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FIRE DANGER
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.  OVER NERN CO A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL BE IN
PLACE WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY DAY OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF DOES SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
FAR ERN PLAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING
STORMS ALONG A WK CONVERGENCE ZN.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER NERN CO.

BY TUE THE ECMWF SHOWS DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
COLD FNT MOVING ACROSS NERN CO. MEANWHILE THE GFS MOVES ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH DRY WSW FLOW
ALOFT AND HOLDS OFF THIS FNT UNTIL TUE NIGHT. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF
THE GFS HAD THIS TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE ALONG
WITH A WK FNT MOVING INTO NERN CO BY AFTN. THUS THIS SETUP WOULD
HAVE PRODUCED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WHILE THE LATEST
SOLUTION HAS NOTHING. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF DID NOT SHOW THE
COLD FNT MOVING INTO TUE NIGHT AND HAD ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS FOR SOME WDLY SCT STORMS.  AT THIS POINT WILL
LEAVE PREVIOUS FCST ALONE AND KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FCST WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR WED DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPOSED TO BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER
THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THEIR SFC SOLUTIONS.  THE GFS SHOWS
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO NERN CO BEHIND A FNT WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A LEE TROUGH OVER
ERN CO WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. ONCE AGAIN NOT SURE WHICH WAY TO
LEAN SO WILL JUST GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR CEILINGS AND VIS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MOVED UP THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAIN ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
PARK COUNTY AT THIS HOUR AND EXPECT IT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z THEN AGAIN BETWEEN
21 AND 02Z THIS AFTERNOON. BKN TO OVC DECK WILL GET DOWN TO 070
OR 080 WITH POSSIBLE GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH WITH THE STORMS. STORMS
SHOULD START TO MOVE TO THE NE AROUND 02Z WITH CEILINGS REMAINING
THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 031558
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
958 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN BRANCH OF ENERGY MOVING NE OUT
OF THE SW PORTION OF THE STATE. LIGHTING IS INDICATED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS MOVING INTO SUMMIT AND PARK
COUNTIES AT THIS HOUR. HAVE INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING AS WELL AS
SKY TO BETTER REPRESENT THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THIS MORNING. ALONG WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER DROPPED
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S FROM THE UPPER 80S AS UPSTREAM
SAT DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CLEARING UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
CONTINUING INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR STORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER DENVER BETWEEN 7 AND
8 PM THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND INCREASED MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE STATE HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN OUT ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTNING DETECTION HAS
ALREADY RECORDED SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...AND THE KGJX RADAR IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTHWARD. HAVE BUMPED THE POPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS UP TO LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER PARTS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ON THE PLAINS SHOW A
BIT OF AN INVERTED-VEE PATTERN...INDICATIVE OF MORE GUSTY WINDS
THAN HEAVY RAIN. SOUNDINGS OVER THE MOUNTAIN SHOW DEEPER SATURATED
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE JET BEING IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION TO ENHANCE CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY SINCE SKIES WILL
BE GETTING CLOUDY BY MID-AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WITH DRYING CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN SSW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
ON FRI AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FM 0.5"-0.7" OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS.  WILL KEEP SCT
POPS IN THE MTNS HOWEVER NOT SURE ABOUT OVERALL COVERAGE OVER THE
PLAINS.  FOR NOW WILL MENTION A CHC CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH A
SLIGHT CHC FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL
REMAIN ABV NORMAL ACROSS NERN CO WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

ON SAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH
INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE MAIN PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER
ERN COLORADO. STILL NOT SURE HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SO WILL ONLY
MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS OVER THE AREA. AS FOR HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN READINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN
CO.

BY SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
WITH DRY WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  A WK COOL FNT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NERN CO DURING THE DAY HOWEVER 850-700 MB TEMPS ONLY DROP A
DEGREE OR TWO SO AFTN HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THIS WK FNT IS LACKING SO WILL NOT MENTION
ANY TSTMS.  WITH INCREASING LOW LVL FLOW AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON MON DRY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FIRE DANGER
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.  OVER NERN CO A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL BE IN
PLACE WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY DAY OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF DOES SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
FAR ERN PLAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING
STORMS ALONG A WK CONVERGENCE ZN.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER NERN CO.

BY TUE THE ECMWF SHOWS DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
COLD FNT MOVING ACROSS NERN CO. MEANWHILE THE GFS MOVES ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH DRY WSW FLOW
ALOFT AND HOLDS OFF THIS FNT UNTIL TUE NIGHT. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF
THE GFS HAD THIS TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE ALONG
WITH A WK FNT MOVING INTO NERN CO BY AFTN. THUS THIS SETUP WOULD
HAVE PRODUCED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WHILE THE LATEST
SOLUTION HAS NOTHING. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF DID NOT SHOW THE
COLD FNT MOVING INTO TUE NIGHT AND HAD ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS FOR SOME WDLY SCT STORMS.  AT THIS POINT WILL
LEAVE PREVIOUS FCST ALONE AND KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FCST WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR WED DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPOSED TO BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER
THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THEIR SFC SOLUTIONS.  THE GFS SHOWS
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO NERN CO BEHIND A FNT WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A LEE TROUGH OVER
ERN CO WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. ONCE AGAIN NOT SURE WHICH WAY TO
LEAN SO WILL JUST GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR CEILINGS AND VIS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MOVED UP THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAIN ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
PARK COUNTY AT THIS HOUR AND EXPECT IT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z THEN AGAIN BETWEEN
21 AND 02Z THIS AFTERNOON. BKN TO OVC DECK WILL GET DOWN TO 070
OR 080 WITH POSSIBLE GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH WITH THE STORMS. STORMS
SHOULD START TO MOVE TO THE NE AROUND 02Z WITH CEILINGS REMAINING
THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 031053
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE STATE HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN OUT ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTNING DETECTION HAS
ALREADY RECORDED SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...AND THE KGJX RADAR IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTHWARD. HAVE BUMPED THE POPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS UP TO LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER PARTS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ON THE PLAINS SHOW A
BIT OF AN INVERTED-VEE PATTERN...INDICATIVE OF MORE GUSTY WINDS
THAN HEAVY RAIN. SOUNDINGS OVER THE MOUNTAIN SHOW DEEPER SATURATED
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE JET BEING IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION TO ENHANCE CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY SINCE SKIES WILL
BE GETTING CLOUDY BY MID-AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WITH DRYING CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN SSW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
ON FRI AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FM 0.5"-0.7" OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS.  WILL KEEP SCT
POPS IN THE MTNS HOWEVER NOT SURE ABOUT OVERALL COVERAGE OVER THE
PLAINS.  FOR NOW WILL MENTION A CHC CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH A
SLIGHT CHC FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL
REMAIN ABV NORMAL ACROSS NERN CO WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

ON SAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH
INVREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT.  ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE MAIN PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER
ERN COLORADO.  STILL NOT SURE HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SO WILL ONLY
MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS OVER THE AREA.  AS FOR HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN READINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN CO.

BY SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
WITH DRY WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  A WK COOL FNT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NERN CO DURING THE DAY HOWEVER 850-700 MB TEMPS ONLY DROP A
DEGREE OR TWO SO AFTN HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THIS WK FNT IS LACKING SO WILL NOT MENTION
ANY TSTMS.  WITH INCREASING LOW LVL FLOW AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON MON DRY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FIRE DANGER
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.  OVER NERN CO A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL BE IN
PLACE WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY DAY OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF DOES SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
FAR ERN PLAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING
STORMS ALONG A WK CONVERGENCE ZN.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER NERN CO.

BY TUE THE ECMWF SHOWS DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
COLD FNT MOVING ACROSS NERN CO. MEANWHILE THE GFS MOVES ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH DRY WSW FLOW
ALOFT AND HOLDS OFF THIS FNT UNTIL TUE NIGHT. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF
THE GFS HAD THIS TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE ALONG
WITH A WK FNT MOVING INTO NERN CO BY AFTN. THUS THIS SETUP WOULD
HAVE PRODUCED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WHILE THE LATEST
SOLUTION HAS NOTHING. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF DID NOT SHOW THE
COLD FNT MOVING INTO TUE NIGHT AND HAD ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS FOR SOME WDLY SCT STORMS.  AT THIS POINT WILL
LEAVE PREVIOUS FCST ALONE AND KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FCST WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR WED DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPOSED TO BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER
THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THEIR SFC SOLUTIONS.  THE GFS SHOWS
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO NERN CO BEHIND A FNT WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A LEE TROUGH OVER
ERN CO WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. ONCE AGAIN NOT SURE WHICH WAY TO
LEAN SO WILL JUST GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE DENVER AREA...MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ARE GOING
TO BE THE MAIN THREATS AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 6000-8000 FEET AGL. SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
BY ABOUT 9 PM TONIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER
THAT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 031053
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE STATE HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN OUT ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTNING DETECTION HAS
ALREADY RECORDED SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...AND THE KGJX RADAR IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTHWARD. HAVE BUMPED THE POPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS UP TO LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER PARTS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ON THE PLAINS SHOW A
BIT OF AN INVERTED-VEE PATTERN...INDICATIVE OF MORE GUSTY WINDS
THAN HEAVY RAIN. SOUNDINGS OVER THE MOUNTAIN SHOW DEEPER SATURATED
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE JET BEING IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION TO ENHANCE CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY SINCE SKIES WILL
BE GETTING CLOUDY BY MID-AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WITH DRYING CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN SSW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
ON FRI AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FM 0.5"-0.7" OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS.  WILL KEEP SCT
POPS IN THE MTNS HOWEVER NOT SURE ABOUT OVERALL COVERAGE OVER THE
PLAINS.  FOR NOW WILL MENTION A CHC CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH A
SLIGHT CHC FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL
REMAIN ABV NORMAL ACROSS NERN CO WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

ON SAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH
INVREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT.  ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE MAIN PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER
ERN COLORADO.  STILL NOT SURE HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SO WILL ONLY
MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS OVER THE AREA.  AS FOR HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN READINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN CO.

BY SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
WITH DRY WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  A WK COOL FNT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NERN CO DURING THE DAY HOWEVER 850-700 MB TEMPS ONLY DROP A
DEGREE OR TWO SO AFTN HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THIS WK FNT IS LACKING SO WILL NOT MENTION
ANY TSTMS.  WITH INCREASING LOW LVL FLOW AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON MON DRY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FIRE DANGER
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.  OVER NERN CO A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL BE IN
PLACE WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY DAY OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF DOES SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
FAR ERN PLAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING
STORMS ALONG A WK CONVERGENCE ZN.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER NERN CO.

BY TUE THE ECMWF SHOWS DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
COLD FNT MOVING ACROSS NERN CO. MEANWHILE THE GFS MOVES ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH DRY WSW FLOW
ALOFT AND HOLDS OFF THIS FNT UNTIL TUE NIGHT. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF
THE GFS HAD THIS TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE ALONG
WITH A WK FNT MOVING INTO NERN CO BY AFTN. THUS THIS SETUP WOULD
HAVE PRODUCED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WHILE THE LATEST
SOLUTION HAS NOTHING. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF DID NOT SHOW THE
COLD FNT MOVING INTO TUE NIGHT AND HAD ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS FOR SOME WDLY SCT STORMS.  AT THIS POINT WILL
LEAVE PREVIOUS FCST ALONE AND KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FCST WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR WED DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPOSED TO BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER
THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THEIR SFC SOLUTIONS.  THE GFS SHOWS
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO NERN CO BEHIND A FNT WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A LEE TROUGH OVER
ERN CO WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. ONCE AGAIN NOT SURE WHICH WAY TO
LEAN SO WILL JUST GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE DENVER AREA...MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ARE GOING
TO BE THE MAIN THREATS AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 6000-8000 FEET AGL. SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
BY ABOUT 9 PM TONIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER
THAT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS





000
FXUS65 KBOU 030212
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
812 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FOOTHILLS AND DIVIDE. CONTINUED DRY
AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE 00Z DENVER RAOB SHOWED WARMING
ALOFT DURING THE DAY WITH STRENGTHENING INVERSION AT 450MB.
ESSENTIALLY CAPPING MUCH OF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. STILL MAY SEE
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BUT RAINFALL WILL BE
MINIMAL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME MAKING THEIR WAY OFF
THE FOOTHILLS ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. UPPER AIR DYNAMICS OVER
THE PLAINS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH ACARS SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
SOME WARMING ALOFT AND INCREASED DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LEFT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE PLAINS MAINLY WEST OF I-25 FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. VIRGA COULD BE THE RESULT WITH
WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NE COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. INSTABILITY ON THE PLAINS
INCREASES FOR THURSDAY WITH THE NAM BRINGING PW VALUES CLOSE TO 1
INCH. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON TO CHANCE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST
FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS ON THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...ONE
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OTHER LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A LESSER CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO NRN CA/NWRN NV.  AS THIS TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETS SHIFTED A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF TSTMS ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER. BY SUNDAY
HOWEVER...A DRIER SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER CO
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT NOT BY
MUCH...MORE LIKE MID 80S AT THIS POINT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE PICTURE. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTN/EVNG...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 757 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER EAST DENVER WITH LIGHT SW WINDS
AT BJC/APA WHILE DEN REMAINS UNDER SE WINDS. EXPECT WEAK
CONVECTION OVER FOOTHILLS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWEST WINDS
FURTHER EAST INTO DEN BETWEEN 03-04Z. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER JEFFERSON AND PARK COUNTIES WITH GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 25 MPH. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 030212
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
812 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FOOTHILLS AND DIVIDE. CONTINUED DRY
AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE 00Z DENVER RAOB SHOWED WARMING
ALOFT DURING THE DAY WITH STRENGTHENING INVERSION AT 450MB.
ESSENTIALLY CAPPING MUCH OF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. STILL MAY SEE
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BUT RAINFALL WILL BE
MINIMAL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME MAKING THEIR WAY OFF
THE FOOTHILLS ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. UPPER AIR DYNAMICS OVER
THE PLAINS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH ACARS SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
SOME WARMING ALOFT AND INCREASED DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LEFT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE PLAINS MAINLY WEST OF I-25 FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. VIRGA COULD BE THE RESULT WITH
WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NE COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. INSTABILITY ON THE PLAINS
INCREASES FOR THURSDAY WITH THE NAM BRINGING PW VALUES CLOSE TO 1
INCH. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON TO CHANCE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST
FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS ON THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...ONE
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OTHER LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A LESSER CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO NRN CA/NWRN NV.  AS THIS TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETS SHIFTED A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF TSTMS ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER. BY SUNDAY
HOWEVER...A DRIER SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER CO
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT NOT BY
MUCH...MORE LIKE MID 80S AT THIS POINT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE PICTURE. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTN/EVNG...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 757 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER EAST DENVER WITH LIGHT SW WINDS
AT BJC/APA WHILE DEN REMAINS UNDER SE WINDS. EXPECT WEAK
CONVECTION OVER FOOTHILLS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWEST WINDS
FURTHER EAST INTO DEN BETWEEN 03-04Z. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER JEFFERSON AND PARK COUNTIES WITH GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 25 MPH. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 030212
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
812 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FOOTHILLS AND DIVIDE. CONTINUED DRY
AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE 00Z DENVER RAOB SHOWED WARMING
ALOFT DURING THE DAY WITH STRENGTHENING INVERSION AT 450MB.
ESSENTIALLY CAPPING MUCH OF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. STILL MAY SEE
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BUT RAINFALL WILL BE
MINIMAL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME MAKING THEIR WAY OFF
THE FOOTHILLS ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. UPPER AIR DYNAMICS OVER
THE PLAINS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH ACARS SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
SOME WARMING ALOFT AND INCREASED DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LEFT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE PLAINS MAINLY WEST OF I-25 FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. VIRGA COULD BE THE RESULT WITH
WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NE COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. INSTABILITY ON THE PLAINS
INCREASES FOR THURSDAY WITH THE NAM BRINGING PW VALUES CLOSE TO 1
INCH. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON TO CHANCE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST
FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS ON THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...ONE
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OTHER LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A LESSER CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO NRN CA/NWRN NV.  AS THIS TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETS SHIFTED A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF TSTMS ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER. BY SUNDAY
HOWEVER...A DRIER SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER CO
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT NOT BY
MUCH...MORE LIKE MID 80S AT THIS POINT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE PICTURE. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTN/EVNG...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 757 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER EAST DENVER WITH LIGHT SW WINDS
AT BJC/APA WHILE DEN REMAINS UNDER SE WINDS. EXPECT WEAK
CONVECTION OVER FOOTHILLS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWEST WINDS
FURTHER EAST INTO DEN BETWEEN 03-04Z. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER JEFFERSON AND PARK COUNTIES WITH GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 25 MPH. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 022020
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
220 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME MAKING THEIR WAY OFF
THE FOOTHILLS ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. UPPER AIR DYNAMICS OVER
THE PLAINS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH ACARS SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
SOME WARMING ALOFT AND INCREASED DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LEFT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE PLAINS MAINLY WEST OF I-25 FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. VIRGA COULD BE THE RESULT WITH
WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NE COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. INSTABILITY ON THE PLAINS
INCREASES FOR THURSDAY WITH THE NAM BRINGING PW VALUES CLOSE TO 1
INCH. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON TO CHANCE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST
FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS ON THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...ONE
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OTHER LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A LESSER CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO NRN CA/NWRN NV.  AS THIS TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETS SHIFTED A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF TSTMS ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER. BY SUNDAY
HOWEVER...A DRIER SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER CO
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT NOT BY
MUCH...MORE LIKE MID 80S AT THIS POINT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE PICTURE. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTN/EVNG...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STORMS WILL FORM
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. WITH WARMING ALOFT DO
NOT EXPECT PRIME CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AIRPORTS BUT
SOME OUTFLOWS COULD TURN WINDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY WSW WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 022020
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
220 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME MAKING THEIR WAY OFF
THE FOOTHILLS ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. UPPER AIR DYNAMICS OVER
THE PLAINS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH ACARS SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
SOME WARMING ALOFT AND INCREASED DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LEFT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE PLAINS MAINLY WEST OF I-25 FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. VIRGA COULD BE THE RESULT WITH
WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NE COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. INSTABILITY ON THE PLAINS
INCREASES FOR THURSDAY WITH THE NAM BRINGING PW VALUES CLOSE TO 1
INCH. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON TO CHANCE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST
FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS ON THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...ONE
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OTHER LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A LESSER CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO NRN CA/NWRN NV.  AS THIS TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETS SHIFTED A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF TSTMS ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER. BY SUNDAY
HOWEVER...A DRIER SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER CO
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT NOT BY
MUCH...MORE LIKE MID 80S AT THIS POINT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE PICTURE. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTN/EVNG...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STORMS WILL FORM
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. WITH WARMING ALOFT DO
NOT EXPECT PRIME CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AIRPORTS BUT
SOME OUTFLOWS COULD TURN WINDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY WSW WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 021523
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
923 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY OVER THE PLAINS BUT MOISTURE STILL
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF PARK COUNTY AS
SEEN ON SATELLITE. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH
OF I-70 WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER PARK COUNTY AND AREAS CLOSE TO
THE PLAINS WEST OF I-25. SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE OVER THE DENVER
AREA BUT CURRENT UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING IN THE LOW
LEVELS THAT COULD PRODUCE ONLY VIRGA AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. ONLY
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POP GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AS SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
OUT OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME LIGHT RAINFALL. AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS...A WARM
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WITH MORNING
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 60S AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT THE
PRESENT TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE ANOTHER FORAY INTO THE
LOWER AND MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AIRMASS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS CAPPED
ALL AFTERNOON. THE ONLY PLAINS LOCATIONS WITH THE MENTION OF ANY
POPS WILL BE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. LATER TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE
ANOTHER MILD ONE AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE STATE. EVENING SHOWERS SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED
BY ABOUT 9 PM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE WRN US THU INTO FRI
WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  IN ADDITION THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FLOW WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS AS WELL.  THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY
THU EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING AROUND .70" IN
THE MTNS WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS.  SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHC ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE.  OVER THE FAR PLAINS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDELY SCT.
AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS NERN CO.

ON FRI APPEARS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THUS MAY SEE
ANOTHER GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHC
OVER THE PLAINS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 85
TO 90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

BY SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
GOOD INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MTNS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.25 INCHES OVER THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FEED OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
DECREASING CONSIDERABLY.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF
STORMS HOWEVER IF THE GFS ENDS UP BEING CORRECT THEN TSTM COVERAGE
OVER THE PLAINS COULD BE HIGHER.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE 80S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WSW.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A DRIER
AIRMASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP ANY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT VERY ISOLD IF AT ALL.  MEANWHILE A WK COOL FNT MAY MOVE
ACROSS NERN CO IN THE AFTN HOWEVER HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 80S.

BY MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WSW WITH ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINING MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THUS ANY TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL BE RATHER ISOLD AND MAINLY IN THE MTNS SOUTH OF I-70.  AS FOR
HIGHS READINGS WILL BE NR SEASONAL LEVELS.  ON TUE THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE WLY WITH ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF
THE AREA SO TSTMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 916 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT TAFS WITH EXPECTED VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VCSH WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY BETWEEN 23 AND 02Z THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A BKN DECK AND SOME VIRGA/SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 021523
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
923 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY OVER THE PLAINS BUT MOISTURE STILL
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF PARK COUNTY AS
SEEN ON SATELLITE. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH
OF I-70 WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER PARK COUNTY AND AREAS CLOSE TO
THE PLAINS WEST OF I-25. SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE OVER THE DENVER
AREA BUT CURRENT UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING IN THE LOW
LEVELS THAT COULD PRODUCE ONLY VIRGA AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. ONLY
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POP GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AS SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
OUT OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME LIGHT RAINFALL. AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS...A WARM
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WITH MORNING
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 60S AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT THE
PRESENT TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE ANOTHER FORAY INTO THE
LOWER AND MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AIRMASS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS CAPPED
ALL AFTERNOON. THE ONLY PLAINS LOCATIONS WITH THE MENTION OF ANY
POPS WILL BE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. LATER TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE
ANOTHER MILD ONE AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE STATE. EVENING SHOWERS SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED
BY ABOUT 9 PM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE WRN US THU INTO FRI
WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  IN ADDITION THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FLOW WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS AS WELL.  THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY
THU EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING AROUND .70" IN
THE MTNS WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS.  SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHC ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE.  OVER THE FAR PLAINS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDELY SCT.
AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS NERN CO.

ON FRI APPEARS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THUS MAY SEE
ANOTHER GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHC
OVER THE PLAINS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 85
TO 90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

BY SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
GOOD INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MTNS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.25 INCHES OVER THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FEED OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
DECREASING CONSIDERABLY.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF
STORMS HOWEVER IF THE GFS ENDS UP BEING CORRECT THEN TSTM COVERAGE
OVER THE PLAINS COULD BE HIGHER.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE 80S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WSW.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A DRIER
AIRMASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP ANY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT VERY ISOLD IF AT ALL.  MEANWHILE A WK COOL FNT MAY MOVE
ACROSS NERN CO IN THE AFTN HOWEVER HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 80S.

BY MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WSW WITH ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINING MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THUS ANY TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL BE RATHER ISOLD AND MAINLY IN THE MTNS SOUTH OF I-70.  AS FOR
HIGHS READINGS WILL BE NR SEASONAL LEVELS.  ON TUE THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE WLY WITH ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF
THE AREA SO TSTMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 916 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT TAFS WITH EXPECTED VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VCSH WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY BETWEEN 23 AND 02Z THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A BKN DECK AND SOME VIRGA/SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 021523
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
923 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY OVER THE PLAINS BUT MOISTURE STILL
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF PARK COUNTY AS
SEEN ON SATELLITE. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH
OF I-70 WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER PARK COUNTY AND AREAS CLOSE TO
THE PLAINS WEST OF I-25. SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE OVER THE DENVER
AREA BUT CURRENT UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING IN THE LOW
LEVELS THAT COULD PRODUCE ONLY VIRGA AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. ONLY
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POP GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AS SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
OUT OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME LIGHT RAINFALL. AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS...A WARM
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WITH MORNING
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 60S AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT THE
PRESENT TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE ANOTHER FORAY INTO THE
LOWER AND MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AIRMASS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS CAPPED
ALL AFTERNOON. THE ONLY PLAINS LOCATIONS WITH THE MENTION OF ANY
POPS WILL BE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. LATER TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE
ANOTHER MILD ONE AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE STATE. EVENING SHOWERS SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED
BY ABOUT 9 PM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE WRN US THU INTO FRI
WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  IN ADDITION THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FLOW WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS AS WELL.  THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY
THU EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING AROUND .70" IN
THE MTNS WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS.  SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHC ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE.  OVER THE FAR PLAINS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDELY SCT.
AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS NERN CO.

ON FRI APPEARS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THUS MAY SEE
ANOTHER GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHC
OVER THE PLAINS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 85
TO 90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

BY SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
GOOD INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MTNS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.25 INCHES OVER THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FEED OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
DECREASING CONSIDERABLY.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF
STORMS HOWEVER IF THE GFS ENDS UP BEING CORRECT THEN TSTM COVERAGE
OVER THE PLAINS COULD BE HIGHER.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE 80S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WSW.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A DRIER
AIRMASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP ANY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT VERY ISOLD IF AT ALL.  MEANWHILE A WK COOL FNT MAY MOVE
ACROSS NERN CO IN THE AFTN HOWEVER HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 80S.

BY MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WSW WITH ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINING MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THUS ANY TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL BE RATHER ISOLD AND MAINLY IN THE MTNS SOUTH OF I-70.  AS FOR
HIGHS READINGS WILL BE NR SEASONAL LEVELS.  ON TUE THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE WLY WITH ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF
THE AREA SO TSTMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 916 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT TAFS WITH EXPECTED VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VCSH WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY BETWEEN 23 AND 02Z THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A BKN DECK AND SOME VIRGA/SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BOWEN





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