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000
FXUS65 KBOU 182046
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
146 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN CO
TONIGHT. NOT MUCH LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. SPATIAL
CROSS-SECTIONS AND MDL QPF INDICATE DECREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW
DIMINISHING BY THAT TIME. ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS...WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOWER WHICH SHOULD NEGATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY COVERAGE COULD OCCUR IN
LOW LYING AREAS. ON FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO FROM THE WEST WITH A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS BUT MIXING WILL BE LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

...MOIST AND COLD IN THE LONG TERM WILL LEAD TO A GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVE EAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING OVER COLORADO.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LIGHT POPS. LEE TROUGHING
WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH THE ONSET OF ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE. MOISTURE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTH. BETTER CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW SUNDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE INTO THE
50S PRIOR TO THE COOL AIR MOVING IN.

FOR SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY THE MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND DECENT LAPSE RATES FROM 7-8 C/KM WILL
PROVIDE FOR A DECENT SNOW MAKER FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE
ONLY ISSUE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ARE THE TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO START WILL BE ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE JET WITH TEMPS IN THE 20S AT MOUNTAIN TOP.
THIS HAS STILL PROVEN TO PRODUCE DECENT AMOUNTS OF SNOW IN THE
PAST BUT COULD ALSO MEAN A MORE SLUSHY WET SNOW THAT WOULD NOT
ACCUMULATE AS MUCH OVERNIGHT. FOR MONDAY HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT
700 MB COOL CONSIDERABLY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED SNOW
FALL. CURRENT MODELS ARE INDICATING 2 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FOR THE
ENTIRETY OF THE STORM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH COULD EQUATE TO
POSSIBLE WATCH CRITERIA STARTING SUNDAY SO WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE
EYE ON MODEL DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING COMPONENT ALONG OF 60 TO 70 MPH AT
MOUNTAIN TOP MONDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SNOWFALL OVER
THE MOUNTAINS COULD CREATE BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FOR HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND TRAVELERS.

ON MONDAY THE MOIST NW FLOW COMBINED WITH THE JET AND LAPSE RATES
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY TO THE NE PLAINS. THE EC HAS
THE BEST CHANCE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY
WHILE THE GFS LAGS AND STARTS PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE
POPS IN THE 30 RANGE OVER THE PLAINS AS THE MODELS AND PLACEMENT
OF THE JET EVOLVE.

ON TUESDAY THE STRONG N TO NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS THE JET
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING MOISTURE DECREASING
OVER THE PLAINS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO FROM THE EAST. EC SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS DUE MAINLY TO LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
LAPSE RATES SITTING IN THE 8-9 C/KM RANGE. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ON
TUESDAY AFTER THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN MONDAY WITH HIGHS OVER THE
PLAINS IN THE LOWER 40S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE STRONG AND MOIST NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES SO OROGRAPHIC
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH
THE JET DIPPING SOUTH AND INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH KEPT POPS OVER THE PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH HIGHS OVER THE FRONT RANGE IN THE UPPER 30S.

THE BIG STORY HOWEVER IS WILL IT SNOW ON CHRISTMAS...

CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE A VERY GOOD CHANCE
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BRINGING LOTS OF MOISTURE
AND COLD AIR. CURRENT QG FORECASTS ARE VERY PROMISING WITH THE EC
INDICATING -35 MB/HR OVER NERN COLORADO. DECIDED TO GO WITH
CHANCE POPS WITH DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING SOME SNOW BUT WILL
WAIT ON MENTIONING SNOW AMOUNTS UNTIL LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIGS THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN DECREASING. NO CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. LOWER
LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO BE A BIT DRIER OVERNIGHT SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATEPATCHY FOG LATE TNGT/FRIDAY MORNING. IF ANY DOES
DEVELOP IT WILL BE EAST OF THE AIRPORTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 182046
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
146 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN CO
TONIGHT. NOT MUCH LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. SPATIAL
CROSS-SECTIONS AND MDL QPF INDICATE DECREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW
DIMINISHING BY THAT TIME. ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS...WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOWER WHICH SHOULD NEGATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY COVERAGE COULD OCCUR IN
LOW LYING AREAS. ON FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO FROM THE WEST WITH A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS BUT MIXING WILL BE LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

...MOIST AND COLD IN THE LONG TERM WILL LEAD TO A GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVE EAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING OVER COLORADO.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LIGHT POPS. LEE TROUGHING
WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH THE ONSET OF ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE. MOISTURE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTH. BETTER CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW SUNDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE INTO THE
50S PRIOR TO THE COOL AIR MOVING IN.

FOR SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY THE MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND DECENT LAPSE RATES FROM 7-8 C/KM WILL
PROVIDE FOR A DECENT SNOW MAKER FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE
ONLY ISSUE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ARE THE TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO START WILL BE ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE JET WITH TEMPS IN THE 20S AT MOUNTAIN TOP.
THIS HAS STILL PROVEN TO PRODUCE DECENT AMOUNTS OF SNOW IN THE
PAST BUT COULD ALSO MEAN A MORE SLUSHY WET SNOW THAT WOULD NOT
ACCUMULATE AS MUCH OVERNIGHT. FOR MONDAY HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT
700 MB COOL CONSIDERABLY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED SNOW
FALL. CURRENT MODELS ARE INDICATING 2 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FOR THE
ENTIRETY OF THE STORM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH COULD EQUATE TO
POSSIBLE WATCH CRITERIA STARTING SUNDAY SO WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE
EYE ON MODEL DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING COMPONENT ALONG OF 60 TO 70 MPH AT
MOUNTAIN TOP MONDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SNOWFALL OVER
THE MOUNTAINS COULD CREATE BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FOR HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND TRAVELERS.

ON MONDAY THE MOIST NW FLOW COMBINED WITH THE JET AND LAPSE RATES
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY TO THE NE PLAINS. THE EC HAS
THE BEST CHANCE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY
WHILE THE GFS LAGS AND STARTS PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE
POPS IN THE 30 RANGE OVER THE PLAINS AS THE MODELS AND PLACEMENT
OF THE JET EVOLVE.

ON TUESDAY THE STRONG N TO NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS THE JET
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING MOISTURE DECREASING
OVER THE PLAINS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO FROM THE EAST. EC SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS DUE MAINLY TO LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
LAPSE RATES SITTING IN THE 8-9 C/KM RANGE. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ON
TUESDAY AFTER THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN MONDAY WITH HIGHS OVER THE
PLAINS IN THE LOWER 40S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE STRONG AND MOIST NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES SO OROGRAPHIC
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH
THE JET DIPPING SOUTH AND INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH KEPT POPS OVER THE PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH HIGHS OVER THE FRONT RANGE IN THE UPPER 30S.

THE BIG STORY HOWEVER IS WILL IT SNOW ON CHRISTMAS...

CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE A VERY GOOD CHANCE
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BRINGING LOTS OF MOISTURE
AND COLD AIR. CURRENT QG FORECASTS ARE VERY PROMISING WITH THE EC
INDICATING -35 MB/HR OVER NERN COLORADO. DECIDED TO GO WITH
CHANCE POPS WITH DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING SOME SNOW BUT WILL
WAIT ON MENTIONING SNOW AMOUNTS UNTIL LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIGS THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN DECREASING. NO CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. LOWER
LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO BE A BIT DRIER OVERNIGHT SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATEPATCHY FOG LATE TNGT/FRIDAY MORNING. IF ANY DOES
DEVELOP IT WILL BE EAST OF THE AIRPORTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...COOPER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 181547
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
847 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR DIA BUT EXPECT THIS TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME SLGT
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN THE FOOTHILLS...GENERALLY SLGT
CHC...THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
STATE TODAY WITH WEAK WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT. MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE WEAK WEST WINDS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN ONE
OF TWO INCHES. AREAS OF FOR AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DRIFTING OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT
VISIBILITIES AT METAR STATIONS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN IMPROVING. WILL
HANG ON TO THE MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.
WILL ALSO HANG ON TO PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ADVECTING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG DOWNSLOPING WARMING OR
STRONG SUNSHINE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SO THERE IS LITTLE NEED TO REDUCE
POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY ON FRI AS A
FLAT UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS BY AFTN.  OVERALL CROSS-SECTIONS ONLY
SHOW SOME MOISTURE NR MTN TOP SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700
MB TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH ON FRI SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BUT KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER
THE PLAINS WHERE SNOW COVER WILL STILL EXIST.

ON SAT ANOTHER WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE AREA BRINGING A
CHC OF -SHSN TO THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700 MB
TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES SO WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
OVER NERN CO ALTHOUGH READINGS AROUND DENVER COULD REACH THE UPPER
40S.

BY SUN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NWLY AND INTENSIFY.  MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS THRU THE DAY SO SHOULD A BETTER
CHC OF SNOW ESPECIALLY BY AFTN.  OVER NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY
ALTHOUGH MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER.  850-
700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 3 DEGREES OR SO WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR HIGHS
TO REACH THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER WITH 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON STG MOIST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AS LAPSE RATES RISE
INTO THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS IN PLACE ALONG
WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LVL JET MAY SEE A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN THE
MTNS AND PORTIONS OF HIGHER VALLEYS.  OVER NERN CO APPEARS A BORA
TYPE FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
DESPITE NWLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET
AND DECENT LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NERN
CO.  THE ECMWF HAS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING WHILE THE GFS HAS THE BEST CHC MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING.
IN ADDITION THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO TURN THE WINDS MORE NNE MON AFTN
INTO MON EVENING WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE CHC OF PCPN FM DENVER
SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE.  MEANWHILE TEMP PROFILES FM THE
ECMWF WOULD FAVOR PCPN MOSTLY AS SNOW WHILE THE GFS KEEPS READINGS
WARMER WITH PCPN FALLING AS RAIN MON AFTN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW
MON EVENING.  THIS FAR OUT HARD TO SAY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW SINCE TIMING OF
PCPN IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

FOR TUE STG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.  CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH IN THE MTNS HOWEVER
LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  THUS WILL STILL SEE
PERIODS OF OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN SNOW.  OVER NERN CO THE ECMWF SHOWS A
WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WHICH COMBINES WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SNOW ALONG
THE URBAN CORRIDOR WHICH IS ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET.  THE GFS SORT OF SHOWS A SIMILAR SET UP BUT DOES NOT HAVE AS
MUCH PCPN.  FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW FOR THE
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NWLY.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE MTNS WITH
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF
OROGRAPHIC SNOW WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET. OVER NERN CO BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SURE OF
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. ONCE
AGAIN WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF SNOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THUS WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS. HIGHS ON WED SHOULD STAY IN THE 30S OVER
NERN CO BASED ON LATEST 850-700 MB TEMPS.

LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY LATEST ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SE INTO THE RGN ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR.  OF COURSE
THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY SO WE SHALL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 840 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

PATCHY FOG AT DIA SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY RECOVER THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH 17Z...THEN NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL BE QUITE WEAK ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

RAP INDICATES SOME LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4-8 KNOT RANGE. NOTHING
MORE THAN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MEANDERS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 181547
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
847 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR DIA BUT EXPECT THIS TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME SLGT
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN THE FOOTHILLS...GENERALLY SLGT
CHC...THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
STATE TODAY WITH WEAK WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT. MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE WEAK WEST WINDS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN ONE
OF TWO INCHES. AREAS OF FOR AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DRIFTING OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT
VISIBILITIES AT METAR STATIONS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN IMPROVING. WILL
HANG ON TO THE MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.
WILL ALSO HANG ON TO PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ADVECTING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG DOWNSLOPING WARMING OR
STRONG SUNSHINE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SO THERE IS LITTLE NEED TO REDUCE
POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY ON FRI AS A
FLAT UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS BY AFTN.  OVERALL CROSS-SECTIONS ONLY
SHOW SOME MOISTURE NR MTN TOP SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700
MB TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH ON FRI SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BUT KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER
THE PLAINS WHERE SNOW COVER WILL STILL EXIST.

ON SAT ANOTHER WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE AREA BRINGING A
CHC OF -SHSN TO THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700 MB
TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES SO WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
OVER NERN CO ALTHOUGH READINGS AROUND DENVER COULD REACH THE UPPER
40S.

BY SUN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NWLY AND INTENSIFY.  MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS THRU THE DAY SO SHOULD A BETTER
CHC OF SNOW ESPECIALLY BY AFTN.  OVER NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY
ALTHOUGH MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER.  850-
700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 3 DEGREES OR SO WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR HIGHS
TO REACH THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER WITH 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON STG MOIST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AS LAPSE RATES RISE
INTO THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS IN PLACE ALONG
WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LVL JET MAY SEE A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN THE
MTNS AND PORTIONS OF HIGHER VALLEYS.  OVER NERN CO APPEARS A BORA
TYPE FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
DESPITE NWLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET
AND DECENT LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NERN
CO.  THE ECMWF HAS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING WHILE THE GFS HAS THE BEST CHC MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING.
IN ADDITION THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO TURN THE WINDS MORE NNE MON AFTN
INTO MON EVENING WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE CHC OF PCPN FM DENVER
SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE.  MEANWHILE TEMP PROFILES FM THE
ECMWF WOULD FAVOR PCPN MOSTLY AS SNOW WHILE THE GFS KEEPS READINGS
WARMER WITH PCPN FALLING AS RAIN MON AFTN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW
MON EVENING.  THIS FAR OUT HARD TO SAY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW SINCE TIMING OF
PCPN IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

FOR TUE STG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.  CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH IN THE MTNS HOWEVER
LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  THUS WILL STILL SEE
PERIODS OF OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN SNOW.  OVER NERN CO THE ECMWF SHOWS A
WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WHICH COMBINES WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SNOW ALONG
THE URBAN CORRIDOR WHICH IS ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET.  THE GFS SORT OF SHOWS A SIMILAR SET UP BUT DOES NOT HAVE AS
MUCH PCPN.  FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW FOR THE
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NWLY.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE MTNS WITH
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF
OROGRAPHIC SNOW WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET. OVER NERN CO BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SURE OF
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. ONCE
AGAIN WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF SNOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THUS WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS. HIGHS ON WED SHOULD STAY IN THE 30S OVER
NERN CO BASED ON LATEST 850-700 MB TEMPS.

LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY LATEST ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SE INTO THE RGN ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR.  OF COURSE
THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY SO WE SHALL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 840 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

PATCHY FOG AT DIA SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY RECOVER THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH 17Z...THEN NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL BE QUITE WEAK ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

RAP INDICATES SOME LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4-8 KNOT RANGE. NOTHING
MORE THAN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MEANDERS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...COOPER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 181100
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
STATE TODAY WITH WEAK WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT. MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE WEAK WEST WINDS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN ONE
OF TWO INCHES. AREAS OF FOR AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DRIFITNG OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT
VISIBILITIES AT METAR STATIONS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN IMPROVING. WILL
HANG ON TO THE MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.
WILL ALSO HANG ON TO PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WARMING OR STRONG SUNSHINE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SO THERE IS LITTLE NEED
TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY ON FRI AS A
FLAT UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS BY AFTN.  OVERALL CROSS-SECTIONS ONLY
SHOW SOME MOISTURE NR MTN TOP SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700
MB TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH ON FRI SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BUT KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER
THE PLAINS WHERE SNOW COVER WILL STILL EXIST.

ON SAT ANOTHER WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE AREA BRINGING A
CHC OF -SHSN TO THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700 MB
TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES SO WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
OVER NERN CO ALTHOUGH READINGS AROUND DENVER COULD REACH THE UPPER
40S.

BY SUN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NWLY AND INTENSIFY.  MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS THRU THE DAY SO SHOULD A BETTER
CHC OF SNOW ESPECIALLY BY AFTN.  OVER NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY
ALTHOUGH MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER.  850-
700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 3 DEGREES OR SO WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR HIGHS
TO REACH THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER WITH 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON STG MOIST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AS LAPSE RATES RISE
INTO THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS IN PLACE ALONG
WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LVL JET MAY SEE A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN THE
MTNS AND PORTIONS OF HIGHER VALLEYS.  OVER NERN CO APPEARS A BORA
TYPE FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
DESPITE NWLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET
AND DECENT LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NERN
CO.  THE ECMWF HAS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING WHILE THE GFS HAS THE BEST CHC MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING.
IN ADDITION THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO TURN THE WINDS MORE NNE MON AFTN
INTO MON EVENING WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE CHC OF PCPN FM DENVER
SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE.  MEANWHILE TEMP PROFILES FM THE
ECMWF WOULD FAVOR PCPN MOSTLY AS SNOW WHILE THE GFS KEEPS READINGS
WARMER WITH PCPN FALLING AS RAIN MON AFTN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW
MON EVENING.  THIS FAR OUT HARD TO SAY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW SINCE TIMING OF
PCPN IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

FOR TUE STG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.  CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH IN THE MTNS HOWEVER
LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  THUS WILL STILL SEE
PERIODS OF OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN SNOW.  OVER NERN CO THE ECMWF SHOWS A
WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WHICH COMBINES WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SNOW ALONG
THE URBAN CORRIDOR WHICH IS ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET.  THE GFS SORT OF SHOWS A SIMILAR SET UP BUT DOES NOT HAVE AS
MUCH PCPN.  FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW FOR THE
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NWLY.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE MTNS WITH
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF
OROGRAPHIC SNOW WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET. OVER NERN CO BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SURE OF
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. ONCE
AGAIN WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF SNOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THUS WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS. HIGHS ON WED SHOULD STAY IN THE 30S OVER
NERN CO BASED ON LATEST 850-700 MB TEMPS.

LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY LATEST ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SE INTO THE RGN ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR.  OF COURSE
THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY SO WE SHALL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE QUITE WEAK ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. THE RAP INDICATES SOME LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5-10 KNOT
RANGE. NOTHING MORE THAN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MEANDERS OVERHEAD. IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 181100
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
STATE TODAY WITH WEAK WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT. MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE WEAK WEST WINDS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN ONE
OF TWO INCHES. AREAS OF FOR AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DRIFITNG OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT
VISIBILITIES AT METAR STATIONS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN IMPROVING. WILL
HANG ON TO THE MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.
WILL ALSO HANG ON TO PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WARMING OR STRONG SUNSHINE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SO THERE IS LITTLE NEED
TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY ON FRI AS A
FLAT UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS BY AFTN.  OVERALL CROSS-SECTIONS ONLY
SHOW SOME MOISTURE NR MTN TOP SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700
MB TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH ON FRI SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BUT KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER
THE PLAINS WHERE SNOW COVER WILL STILL EXIST.

ON SAT ANOTHER WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE AREA BRINGING A
CHC OF -SHSN TO THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700 MB
TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES SO WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
OVER NERN CO ALTHOUGH READINGS AROUND DENVER COULD REACH THE UPPER
40S.

BY SUN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NWLY AND INTENSIFY.  MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS THRU THE DAY SO SHOULD A BETTER
CHC OF SNOW ESPECIALLY BY AFTN.  OVER NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY
ALTHOUGH MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER.  850-
700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 3 DEGREES OR SO WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR HIGHS
TO REACH THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER WITH 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON STG MOIST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AS LAPSE RATES RISE
INTO THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS IN PLACE ALONG
WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LVL JET MAY SEE A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN THE
MTNS AND PORTIONS OF HIGHER VALLEYS.  OVER NERN CO APPEARS A BORA
TYPE FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
DESPITE NWLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET
AND DECENT LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NERN
CO.  THE ECMWF HAS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING WHILE THE GFS HAS THE BEST CHC MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING.
IN ADDITION THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO TURN THE WINDS MORE NNE MON AFTN
INTO MON EVENING WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE CHC OF PCPN FM DENVER
SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE.  MEANWHILE TEMP PROFILES FM THE
ECMWF WOULD FAVOR PCPN MOSTLY AS SNOW WHILE THE GFS KEEPS READINGS
WARMER WITH PCPN FALLING AS RAIN MON AFTN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW
MON EVENING.  THIS FAR OUT HARD TO SAY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW SINCE TIMING OF
PCPN IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

FOR TUE STG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.  CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH IN THE MTNS HOWEVER
LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  THUS WILL STILL SEE
PERIODS OF OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN SNOW.  OVER NERN CO THE ECMWF SHOWS A
WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WHICH COMBINES WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SNOW ALONG
THE URBAN CORRIDOR WHICH IS ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET.  THE GFS SORT OF SHOWS A SIMILAR SET UP BUT DOES NOT HAVE AS
MUCH PCPN.  FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW FOR THE
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NWLY.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE MTNS WITH
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF
OROGRAPHIC SNOW WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET. OVER NERN CO BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SURE OF
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. ONCE
AGAIN WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF SNOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THUS WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS. HIGHS ON WED SHOULD STAY IN THE 30S OVER
NERN CO BASED ON LATEST 850-700 MB TEMPS.

LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY LATEST ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SE INTO THE RGN ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR.  OF COURSE
THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY SO WE SHALL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE QUITE WEAK ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. THE RAP INDICATES SOME LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5-10 KNOT
RANGE. NOTHING MORE THAN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MEANDERS OVERHEAD. IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS





000
FXUS65 KBOU 181100
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
STATE TODAY WITH WEAK WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT. MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE WEAK WEST WINDS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN ONE
OF TWO INCHES. AREAS OF FOR AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DRIFITNG OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT
VISIBILITIES AT METAR STATIONS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN IMPROVING. WILL
HANG ON TO THE MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.
WILL ALSO HANG ON TO PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WARMING OR STRONG SUNSHINE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SO THERE IS LITTLE NEED
TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY ON FRI AS A
FLAT UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS BY AFTN.  OVERALL CROSS-SECTIONS ONLY
SHOW SOME MOISTURE NR MTN TOP SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700
MB TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH ON FRI SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BUT KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER
THE PLAINS WHERE SNOW COVER WILL STILL EXIST.

ON SAT ANOTHER WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE AREA BRINGING A
CHC OF -SHSN TO THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700 MB
TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES SO WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
OVER NERN CO ALTHOUGH READINGS AROUND DENVER COULD REACH THE UPPER
40S.

BY SUN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NWLY AND INTENSIFY.  MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS THRU THE DAY SO SHOULD A BETTER
CHC OF SNOW ESPECIALLY BY AFTN.  OVER NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY
ALTHOUGH MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER.  850-
700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 3 DEGREES OR SO WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR HIGHS
TO REACH THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER WITH 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON STG MOIST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AS LAPSE RATES RISE
INTO THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS IN PLACE ALONG
WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LVL JET MAY SEE A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN THE
MTNS AND PORTIONS OF HIGHER VALLEYS.  OVER NERN CO APPEARS A BORA
TYPE FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
DESPITE NWLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET
AND DECENT LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NERN
CO.  THE ECMWF HAS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING WHILE THE GFS HAS THE BEST CHC MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING.
IN ADDITION THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO TURN THE WINDS MORE NNE MON AFTN
INTO MON EVENING WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE CHC OF PCPN FM DENVER
SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE.  MEANWHILE TEMP PROFILES FM THE
ECMWF WOULD FAVOR PCPN MOSTLY AS SNOW WHILE THE GFS KEEPS READINGS
WARMER WITH PCPN FALLING AS RAIN MON AFTN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW
MON EVENING.  THIS FAR OUT HARD TO SAY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW SINCE TIMING OF
PCPN IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

FOR TUE STG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.  CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH IN THE MTNS HOWEVER
LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  THUS WILL STILL SEE
PERIODS OF OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN SNOW.  OVER NERN CO THE ECMWF SHOWS A
WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WHICH COMBINES WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SNOW ALONG
THE URBAN CORRIDOR WHICH IS ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET.  THE GFS SORT OF SHOWS A SIMILAR SET UP BUT DOES NOT HAVE AS
MUCH PCPN.  FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW FOR THE
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NWLY.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE MTNS WITH
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF
OROGRAPHIC SNOW WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET. OVER NERN CO BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SURE OF
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. ONCE
AGAIN WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF SNOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THUS WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS. HIGHS ON WED SHOULD STAY IN THE 30S OVER
NERN CO BASED ON LATEST 850-700 MB TEMPS.

LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY LATEST ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SE INTO THE RGN ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR.  OF COURSE
THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY SO WE SHALL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE QUITE WEAK ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. THE RAP INDICATES SOME LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5-10 KNOT
RANGE. NOTHING MORE THAN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MEANDERS OVERHEAD. IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 181100
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
STATE TODAY WITH WEAK WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT. MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE WEAK WEST WINDS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN ONE
OF TWO INCHES. AREAS OF FOR AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DRIFITNG OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT
VISIBILITIES AT METAR STATIONS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN IMPROVING. WILL
HANG ON TO THE MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.
WILL ALSO HANG ON TO PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WARMING OR STRONG SUNSHINE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SO THERE IS LITTLE NEED
TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY ON FRI AS A
FLAT UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS BY AFTN.  OVERALL CROSS-SECTIONS ONLY
SHOW SOME MOISTURE NR MTN TOP SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700
MB TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH ON FRI SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BUT KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER
THE PLAINS WHERE SNOW COVER WILL STILL EXIST.

ON SAT ANOTHER WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE AREA BRINGING A
CHC OF -SHSN TO THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700 MB
TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES SO WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
OVER NERN CO ALTHOUGH READINGS AROUND DENVER COULD REACH THE UPPER
40S.

BY SUN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NWLY AND INTENSIFY.  MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS THRU THE DAY SO SHOULD A BETTER
CHC OF SNOW ESPECIALLY BY AFTN.  OVER NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY
ALTHOUGH MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER.  850-
700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 3 DEGREES OR SO WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR HIGHS
TO REACH THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER WITH 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON STG MOIST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AS LAPSE RATES RISE
INTO THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS IN PLACE ALONG
WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LVL JET MAY SEE A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN THE
MTNS AND PORTIONS OF HIGHER VALLEYS.  OVER NERN CO APPEARS A BORA
TYPE FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
DESPITE NWLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET
AND DECENT LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NERN
CO.  THE ECMWF HAS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING WHILE THE GFS HAS THE BEST CHC MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING.
IN ADDITION THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO TURN THE WINDS MORE NNE MON AFTN
INTO MON EVENING WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE CHC OF PCPN FM DENVER
SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE.  MEANWHILE TEMP PROFILES FM THE
ECMWF WOULD FAVOR PCPN MOSTLY AS SNOW WHILE THE GFS KEEPS READINGS
WARMER WITH PCPN FALLING AS RAIN MON AFTN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW
MON EVENING.  THIS FAR OUT HARD TO SAY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW SINCE TIMING OF
PCPN IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

FOR TUE STG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.  CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH IN THE MTNS HOWEVER
LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  THUS WILL STILL SEE
PERIODS OF OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN SNOW.  OVER NERN CO THE ECMWF SHOWS A
WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WHICH COMBINES WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SNOW ALONG
THE URBAN CORRIDOR WHICH IS ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET.  THE GFS SORT OF SHOWS A SIMILAR SET UP BUT DOES NOT HAVE AS
MUCH PCPN.  FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW FOR THE
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NWLY.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE MTNS WITH
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF
OROGRAPHIC SNOW WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET. OVER NERN CO BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SURE OF
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. ONCE
AGAIN WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF SNOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THUS WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS. HIGHS ON WED SHOULD STAY IN THE 30S OVER
NERN CO BASED ON LATEST 850-700 MB TEMPS.

LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY LATEST ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SE INTO THE RGN ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR.  OF COURSE
THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY SO WE SHALL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE QUITE WEAK ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. THE RAP INDICATES SOME LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5-10 KNOT
RANGE. NOTHING MORE THAN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MEANDERS OVERHEAD. IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS





000
FXUS65 KBOU 180456
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
956 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE IS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OUT THERE...BUT THE WEAK RADAR ECHOES
APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY VIRGA. BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM POPS
OVERNIGHT. ALSO EXPANDED THE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORNER THROUGH MID MORNING. WITH LOW LEVEL GRADIENT TENDING MORE
SOUTHERLY...NOT EXPECTING THIS TO PUSH BACK TOWARD DENVER THOUGH
THINNING CLOUDS COULD ALLOW SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
DEVELOP. NOT LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLEARING OF THE
HIGHER CLOUDS HOWEVER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS A BIT
HIGHER...RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM MST
WED DEC 17 2014

FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE BORDER IN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE SEEN NO EVIDENCE HERE IN COLORADO.
THIS WILL BE ONE THING FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER AS  IF
FEEDER-SEEDER ISSUES DEVELOP.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME RESIDUAL FOG IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ADDED FOG THIS EVENING TO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER.  AS A RESULT OF THE SNOW COVER AND FOG...THE MAX TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED IN THE 20S TODAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO
THIS EVENING.  RADAR ALREADY SHOWS ECHOES ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE... BUT THUS FAR NOTHING HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE SURFACE.
WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...
BUT EXPECT ONLY A TRACE OF SNOW AWAY FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAY
SEE AN INCH OR SO ON THE DIVIDE.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED ON THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH DIVING
INTO ARIZONA.  AS A RESULT SNOW WILL STILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DRYING HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH TEENS OVER THE SNOWFIELD IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
20S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR.  THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A SLIGHT WARMUP
TO NEAR FREEZING IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND AROUND 40 ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO. THERE WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING AND DOWNWARD FORCING MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP FRIDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES UP FROM PREVIOUS MORNINGS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR.

MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS STRONG
AND MOIST JET STREAM MOVES INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW AND WIND
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SNOW
AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CROSS SECTIONS
ALSO SHOW WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT NOON MONDAY.

FROM MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST ORIENTED 140+ KT JET MAX OVER
CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. WARM ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET MOVES OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN SNOW
INTENSITY. HOWEVER...WINDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STILL
PERSIST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT WINDY ON THE PLAINS
AS A GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THE NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING AT ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT SOME ANTICYCLONIC TURNING
ON MONDAY...WHICH MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE DENVER AREA BY 00Z
TUESDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS, I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW
BANDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING MOVING INTO THE
DENVER AREA BY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...I HAVE INCREASED THE POPS ON
MONDAY FOR THESE AREAS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...THE UPPER JET
CONTINUES ORIENTED OVER THE COLORADO WHICH SHOULD KEEP SNOW FALLING
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY ADDED A 10 POP FOR DENVER DUE
TO THE FACT THAT THIS IS WAY OUT IN DAY SEVEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE DENVER AREA
OVERNIGHT...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME LOW CLOUDS OR FOG WITH IFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER IT WILL
PROBABLY BE DRY WITH HIGH CLOUDS PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD





000
FXUS65 KBOU 180456
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
956 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE IS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OUT THERE...BUT THE WEAK RADAR ECHOES
APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY VIRGA. BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM POPS
OVERNIGHT. ALSO EXPANDED THE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORNER THROUGH MID MORNING. WITH LOW LEVEL GRADIENT TENDING MORE
SOUTHERLY...NOT EXPECTING THIS TO PUSH BACK TOWARD DENVER THOUGH
THINNING CLOUDS COULD ALLOW SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
DEVELOP. NOT LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLEARING OF THE
HIGHER CLOUDS HOWEVER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS A BIT
HIGHER...RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM MST
WED DEC 17 2014

FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE BORDER IN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE SEEN NO EVIDENCE HERE IN COLORADO.
THIS WILL BE ONE THING FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER AS  IF
FEEDER-SEEDER ISSUES DEVELOP.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME RESIDUAL FOG IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ADDED FOG THIS EVENING TO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER.  AS A RESULT OF THE SNOW COVER AND FOG...THE MAX TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED IN THE 20S TODAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO
THIS EVENING.  RADAR ALREADY SHOWS ECHOES ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE... BUT THUS FAR NOTHING HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE SURFACE.
WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...
BUT EXPECT ONLY A TRACE OF SNOW AWAY FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAY
SEE AN INCH OR SO ON THE DIVIDE.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED ON THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH DIVING
INTO ARIZONA.  AS A RESULT SNOW WILL STILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DRYING HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH TEENS OVER THE SNOWFIELD IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
20S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR.  THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A SLIGHT WARMUP
TO NEAR FREEZING IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND AROUND 40 ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO. THERE WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING AND DOWNWARD FORCING MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP FRIDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES UP FROM PREVIOUS MORNINGS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR.

MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS STRONG
AND MOIST JET STREAM MOVES INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW AND WIND
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SNOW
AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CROSS SECTIONS
ALSO SHOW WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT NOON MONDAY.

FROM MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST ORIENTED 140+ KT JET MAX OVER
CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. WARM ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET MOVES OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN SNOW
INTENSITY. HOWEVER...WINDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STILL
PERSIST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT WINDY ON THE PLAINS
AS A GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THE NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING AT ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT SOME ANTICYCLONIC TURNING
ON MONDAY...WHICH MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE DENVER AREA BY 00Z
TUESDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS, I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW
BANDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING MOVING INTO THE
DENVER AREA BY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...I HAVE INCREASED THE POPS ON
MONDAY FOR THESE AREAS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...THE UPPER JET
CONTINUES ORIENTED OVER THE COLORADO WHICH SHOULD KEEP SNOW FALLING
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY ADDED A 10 POP FOR DENVER DUE
TO THE FACT THAT THIS IS WAY OUT IN DAY SEVEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE DENVER AREA
OVERNIGHT...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME LOW CLOUDS OR FOG WITH IFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER IT WILL
PROBABLY BE DRY WITH HIGH CLOUDS PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 172219 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
310 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM MST
WED DEC 17 2014

FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE BORDER IN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE SEEN NO EVIDENCE HERE IN COLORADO.
THIS WILL BE ONE THING FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER AS  IF
FEEDER-SEEDER ISSUES DEVELOP.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME RESIDUAL FOG IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ADDED FOG THIS EVENING TO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER.  AS A RESULT OF THE SNOW COVER AND FOG...THE MAX TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED IN THE 20S TODAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO
THIS EVENING.  RADAR ALREADY SHOWS ECHOES ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE... BUT THUS FAR NOTHING HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE SURFACE.
WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...
BUT EXPECT ONLY A TRACE OF SNOW AWAY FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAY
SEE AN INCH OR SO ON THE DIVIDE.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED ON THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH DIVING
INTO ARIZONA.  AS A RESULT SNOW WILL STILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DRYING HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH TEENS OVER THE SNOWFIELD IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
20S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR.  THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A SLIGHT WARMUP
TO NEAR FREEZING IN NORHTEAST COLORADO...AND AROUND 40 ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO. THERE WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING AND DOWNWARD FORCING MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP FRIDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES UP FROM PREVIOUS MORNINGS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR.

MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS STRONG
AND MOIST JET STREAM MOVES INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW AND WIND
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SNOW
AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CROSS SECTIONS
ALSO SHOW WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT NOON MONDAY.

FROM MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST ORIENTED 140+ KT JET MAX OVER
CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. WARM ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET MOVES OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN SNOW
INTENSITY. HOWEVER...WINDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STILL
PERSIST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT WINDY ON THE PLAINS
AS A GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND HIGER PRESSURE OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THE NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT SOME ANTICYCLONIC TURNING ON
MONDAY...WHICH MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE DENVER AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY. IF
THIS HAPPENS, I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW BANDS OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING MOVING INTO THE DENVER AREA
BY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...I HAVE INCREASED THE POPS ON MONDAY FOR
THESE AREAS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...THE UPPER JET
CONTINUES ORIENTED OVER THE COLORADO WHICH SHOULD KEEP SNOW FALLING
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY ADDED A 10 POP FOR DENVER DUE
TO THE FACT THAT THIS IS WAY OUT IN DAY SEVEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THROUGH 5PM...THEN THERE MAY BE SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING.  SOME FOG WILL REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE METRO AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRYER SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...RTG




000
FXUS65 KBOU 172219 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
310 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM MST
WED DEC 17 2014

FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE BORDER IN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE SEEN NO EVIDENCE HERE IN COLORADO.
THIS WILL BE ONE THING FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER AS  IF
FEEDER-SEEDER ISSUES DEVELOP.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME RESIDUAL FOG IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ADDED FOG THIS EVENING TO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER.  AS A RESULT OF THE SNOW COVER AND FOG...THE MAX TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED IN THE 20S TODAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO
THIS EVENING.  RADAR ALREADY SHOWS ECHOES ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE... BUT THUS FAR NOTHING HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE SURFACE.
WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...
BUT EXPECT ONLY A TRACE OF SNOW AWAY FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAY
SEE AN INCH OR SO ON THE DIVIDE.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED ON THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH DIVING
INTO ARIZONA.  AS A RESULT SNOW WILL STILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DRYING HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH TEENS OVER THE SNOWFIELD IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
20S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR.  THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A SLIGHT WARMUP
TO NEAR FREEZING IN NORHTEAST COLORADO...AND AROUND 40 ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO. THERE WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING AND DOWNWARD FORCING MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP FRIDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES UP FROM PREVIOUS MORNINGS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR.

MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS STRONG
AND MOIST JET STREAM MOVES INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW AND WIND
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SNOW
AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CROSS SECTIONS
ALSO SHOW WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT NOON MONDAY.

FROM MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST ORIENTED 140+ KT JET MAX OVER
CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. WARM ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET MOVES OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN SNOW
INTENSITY. HOWEVER...WINDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STILL
PERSIST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT WINDY ON THE PLAINS
AS A GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND HIGER PRESSURE OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THE NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT SOME ANTICYCLONIC TURNING ON
MONDAY...WHICH MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE DENVER AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY. IF
THIS HAPPENS, I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW BANDS OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING MOVING INTO THE DENVER AREA
BY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...I HAVE INCREASED THE POPS ON MONDAY FOR
THESE AREAS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...THE UPPER JET
CONTINUES ORIENTED OVER THE COLORADO WHICH SHOULD KEEP SNOW FALLING
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY ADDED A 10 POP FOR DENVER DUE
TO THE FACT THAT THIS IS WAY OUT IN DAY SEVEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THROUGH 5PM...THEN THERE MAY BE SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING.  SOME FOG WILL REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE METRO AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRYER SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...RTG





000
FXUS65 KBOU 172209
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
310 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM MST
WED DEC 17 2014

FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE BORDER IN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE SEEN NO EVIDENCE HERE IN COLORADO.
THIS WILL BE ONE THING FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER AS  IF
FEEDER-SEEDER ISSUES DEVELOP.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME RESIDUAL FOG IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ADDED FOG THIS EVENING TO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER.  AS A RESULT OF THE SNOW COVER AND FOG...THE MAX TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED IN THE 20S TODAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO
THIS EVENING.  RADAR ALREADY SHOWS ECHOES ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE... BUT THUS FAR NOTHING HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE SURFACE.
WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...
BUT EXPECT ONLY A TRACE OF SNOW AWAY FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAY
SEE AN INCH OR SO ON THE DIVIDE.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED ON THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH DIVING
INTO ARIZONA.  AS A RESULT SNOW WILL STILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DRYING HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH TEENS OVER THE SNOWFIELD IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
20S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR.  THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A SLIGHT WARMUP
TO NEAR FREEZING IN NORHTEAST COLORADO...AND AROUND 40 ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO. THERE WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING AND DOWNWARD FORCING MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP FRIDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES UP FROM PREVIOUS MORNINGS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR.

MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS STRONG
AND MOIST JET STREAM MOVES INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW AND WIND
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SNOW
AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CROSS SECTIONS
ALSO SHOW WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT NOON MONDAY.

FROM MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST ORIENTED 140+ KT JET MAX OVER
CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. WARM ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET MOVES OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN SNOW
INTENSITY. HOWEVER...WINDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STILL
PERSIST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT WINDY ON THE PLAINS
AS A GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND HIGER PRESSURE OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THE NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT SOME ANTICYCLONIC TURNING ON
MONDAY...WHICH MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE DENVER AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY. IF
THIS HAPPENS, I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW BANDS OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING MOVING INTO THE DENVER AREA
BY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...I HAVE INCREASED THE POPS ON MONDAY FOR
THESE AREAS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...THE UPPER JET
CONTINUES ORIENTED OVER THE COLORADO WHICH SHOULD KEEP SNOW FALLING
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY ADDED A 10 POP FOR DENVER DUE
TO THE FACT THAT THIS IS WAY OUT IN DAY SEVEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THROUGH 5PM...THEN THERE MAY BE SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING.  SOME FOG WILL REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE METRO AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRYER SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...RTG




000
FXUS65 KBOU 172209
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
310 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM MST
WED DEC 17 2014

FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE BORDER IN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE SEEN NO EVIDENCE HERE IN COLORADO.
THIS WILL BE ONE THING FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER AS  IF
FEEDER-SEEDER ISSUES DEVELOP.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME RESIDUAL FOG IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ADDED FOG THIS EVENING TO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER.  AS A RESULT OF THE SNOW COVER AND FOG...THE MAX TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED IN THE 20S TODAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO
THIS EVENING.  RADAR ALREADY SHOWS ECHOES ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE... BUT THUS FAR NOTHING HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE SURFACE.
WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...
BUT EXPECT ONLY A TRACE OF SNOW AWAY FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAY
SEE AN INCH OR SO ON THE DIVIDE.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED ON THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH DIVING
INTO ARIZONA.  AS A RESULT SNOW WILL STILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DRYING HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH TEENS OVER THE SNOWFIELD IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
20S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR.  THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A SLIGHT WARMUP
TO NEAR FREEZING IN NORHTEAST COLORADO...AND AROUND 40 ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO. THERE WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING AND DOWNWARD FORCING MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP FRIDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES UP FROM PREVIOUS MORNINGS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR.

MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS STRONG
AND MOIST JET STREAM MOVES INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW AND WIND
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SNOW
AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CROSS SECTIONS
ALSO SHOW WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT NOON MONDAY.

FROM MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST ORIENTED 140+ KT JET MAX OVER
CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. WARM ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET MOVES OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN SNOW
INTENSITY. HOWEVER...WINDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STILL
PERSIST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT WINDY ON THE PLAINS
AS A GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND HIGER PRESSURE OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THE NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT SOME ANTICYCLONIC TURNING ON
MONDAY...WHICH MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE DENVER AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY. IF
THIS HAPPENS, I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW BANDS OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING MOVING INTO THE DENVER AREA
BY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...I HAVE INCREASED THE POPS ON MONDAY FOR
THESE AREAS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...THE UPPER JET
CONTINUES ORIENTED OVER THE COLORADO WHICH SHOULD KEEP SNOW FALLING
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY ADDED A 10 POP FOR DENVER DUE
TO THE FACT THAT THIS IS WAY OUT IN DAY SEVEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THROUGH 5PM...THEN THERE MAY BE SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING.  SOME FOG WILL REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE METRO AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRYER SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...RTG





000
FXUS65 KBOU 171644
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
944 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

AM BECOMING CONCERNED FROM SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS THAT BEST
SNOW PRODUCTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM SOUTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY SOUTHWARD. WILL CUT BACK POPS A BIT NORTH OF THE PALMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST
THROUGH ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. THE VARIOUS SHORT RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THE BEST Q-G VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT STILL WEAK LIFT FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS ALREADY A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE WESTERN SLOPE
PER LATEST OBS AND GRAND JUNCTION RADAR. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL LIFT INCREASES. THE BEST SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCED BY AN AREA OF WEAK MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
THESE SITUATIONS USUALLY FAVOR AREAS FROM THE MOSQUITO RANGE
THROUGH BOREAS PASS AND MOUNT EVANS AREA...OR ALONG THE
SUMMIT/PARK/CLEAR CREEK COUNTY BORDERS SO ADJUSTED THOSE AMOUNTS
UP A BIT ACCORDINGLY. COULD SEE LOCAL 2-5 INCH ACCUMULATIONS THERE
WITH AN INCH OR LESS MOST OTHER MOUNTAIN LOCALES.

ON THE PLAINS...STILL UNSURE HOW THIS PANS OUT AS MOISTURE IS
LIMITED BELOW ABOUT 5000-6000 FT AGL. LOCATIONS ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE WOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DEVELOPING BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHILE THERE COULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTH. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOPS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SNOW
DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH INTO THE BOULDER/DENVER METRO
AREAS...WITH LOWER OR NO POPS FARTHER NORTH/EAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY MID/LATE EVENING AS
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. COULD
STILL SEE SHOWERS LINGER IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THOUGH WITH WEAK
OROGRAPHICS AS FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY BEHIND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AGAIN WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RATHER COOL START TO THE MORNING.

AREAS OF FOG ON THE PLAINS LOOKS THIS MORNING PER LATEST OBS AND
CIMMS GOES-R PROVING GROUND IFR PRODUCT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A RATHER MEAGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...BEFORE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

ON THURSDAY...AN OPEN WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER COLORADO. THE WEAK
DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OVER THE
NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SUBSIDENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SPREAD OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY...
BRINGING MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AN END. AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND...PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN INCREASING...BRINGING SNOW BACK INTO THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS.

AS THE WEEKEND WRAPS UP...A STRONG AND MOIST UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE OVER THE STATE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THIS COULD BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCER IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPE
WIND EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. AT THIS TIME
MODELS POINT TO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE WINDIEST PERIOD AND
MONDAY BEING THE SNOWIEST PERIOD IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A BIT OF
A REPRIEVE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE STATE ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY ON THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOG IS STEADILY DECREASING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS
MORNING...SO NO FURTHER THREAT TO AREA AIRPORTS. PUBLO RADAR
SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELPING OVER PARK AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTIES...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW 22Z-03Z AT
KAPA...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AT KBJC AND KDEN. POSSIBLE
MFVR CONDTIONS AT DENVER...POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
AT CENTENNIAL AIPORT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RTG




000
FXUS65 KBOU 171644
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
944 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

AM BECOMING CONCERNED FROM SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS THAT BEST
SNOW PRODUCTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM SOUTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY SOUTHWARD. WILL CUT BACK POPS A BIT NORTH OF THE PALMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST
THROUGH ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. THE VARIOUS SHORT RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THE BEST Q-G VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT STILL WEAK LIFT FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS ALREADY A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE WESTERN SLOPE
PER LATEST OBS AND GRAND JUNCTION RADAR. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL LIFT INCREASES. THE BEST SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCED BY AN AREA OF WEAK MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
THESE SITUATIONS USUALLY FAVOR AREAS FROM THE MOSQUITO RANGE
THROUGH BOREAS PASS AND MOUNT EVANS AREA...OR ALONG THE
SUMMIT/PARK/CLEAR CREEK COUNTY BORDERS SO ADJUSTED THOSE AMOUNTS
UP A BIT ACCORDINGLY. COULD SEE LOCAL 2-5 INCH ACCUMULATIONS THERE
WITH AN INCH OR LESS MOST OTHER MOUNTAIN LOCALES.

ON THE PLAINS...STILL UNSURE HOW THIS PANS OUT AS MOISTURE IS
LIMITED BELOW ABOUT 5000-6000 FT AGL. LOCATIONS ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE WOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DEVELOPING BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHILE THERE COULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTH. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOPS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SNOW
DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH INTO THE BOULDER/DENVER METRO
AREAS...WITH LOWER OR NO POPS FARTHER NORTH/EAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY MID/LATE EVENING AS
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. COULD
STILL SEE SHOWERS LINGER IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THOUGH WITH WEAK
OROGRAPHICS AS FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY BEHIND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AGAIN WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RATHER COOL START TO THE MORNING.

AREAS OF FOG ON THE PLAINS LOOKS THIS MORNING PER LATEST OBS AND
CIMMS GOES-R PROVING GROUND IFR PRODUCT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A RATHER MEAGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...BEFORE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

ON THURSDAY...AN OPEN WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER COLORADO. THE WEAK
DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OVER THE
NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SUBSIDENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SPREAD OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY...
BRINGING MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AN END. AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND...PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN INCREASING...BRINGING SNOW BACK INTO THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS.

AS THE WEEKEND WRAPS UP...A STRONG AND MOIST UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE OVER THE STATE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THIS COULD BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCER IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPE
WIND EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. AT THIS TIME
MODELS POINT TO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE WINDIEST PERIOD AND
MONDAY BEING THE SNOWIEST PERIOD IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A BIT OF
A REPRIEVE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE STATE ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY ON THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOG IS STEADILY DECREASING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS
MORNING...SO NO FURTHER THREAT TO AREA AIRPORTS. PUBLO RADAR
SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELPING OVER PARK AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTIES...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW 22Z-03Z AT
KAPA...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AT KBJC AND KDEN. POSSIBLE
MFVR CONDTIONS AT DENVER...POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
AT CENTENNIAL AIPORT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RTG





000
FXUS65 KBOU 171118
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST
THROUGH ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. THE VARIOUS SHORT RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THE BEST Q-G VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT STILL WEAK LIFT FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS ALREADY A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE WESTERN SLOPE
PER LATEST OBS AND GRAND JUNCTION RADAR. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL LIFT INCREASES. THE BEST SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCED BY AN AREA OF WEAK MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
THESE SITUATIONS USUALLY FAVOR AREAS FROM THE MOSQUITO RANGE
THROUGH BOREAS PASS AND MOUNT EVANS AREA...OR ALONG THE
SUMMIT/PARK/CLEAR CREEK COUNTY BORDERS SO ADJUSTED THOSE AMOUNTS
UP A BIT ACCORDINGLY. COULD SEE LOCAL 2-5 INCH ACCUMULATIONS THERE
WITH AN INCH OR LESS MOST OTHER MOUNTAIN LOCALES.

ON THE PLAINS...STILL UNSURE HOW THIS PANS OUT AS MOISTURE IS
LIMITED BELOW ABOUT 5000-6000 FT AGL. LOCATIONS ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE WOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DEVELOPING BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHILE THERE COULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTH. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOPS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SNOW
DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH INTO THE BOULDER/DENVER METRO
AREAS...WITH LOWER OR NO POPS FARTHER NORTH/EAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY MID/LATE EVENING AS
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. COULD
STILL SEE SHOWERS LINGER IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THOUGH WITH WEAK
OROGRAPHICS AS FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY BEHIND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AGAIN WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RATHER COOL START TO THE MORNING.

AREAS OF FOG ON THE PLAINS LOOKS THIS MORNING PER LATEST OBS AND
CIMMS GOES-R PROVING GROUND IFR PRODUCT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A RATHER MEAGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...BEFORE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

ON THURSDAY...AN OPEN WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER COLORADO. THE WEAK
DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OVER THE
NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SUBSIDENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SPREAD OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY...
BRINGING MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AN END. AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND...PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN INCREASING...BRINGING SNOW BACK INTO THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS.

AS THE WEEKEND WRAPS UP...A STRONG AND MOIST UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE OVER THE STATE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THIS COULD BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCER IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPE
WIND EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. AT THIS TIME
MODELS POINT TO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE WINDIEST PERIOD AND
MONDAY BEING THE SNOWIEST PERIOD IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A BIT OF
A REPRIEVE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE STATE ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY ON THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT DIA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH WEAK DENVER CYCLONE TURNING WINDS MORE WEST/NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...PRESENT T/TD SPREADS TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING CLOUDS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THREAT LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY LOWER TO ILS LANDINGS BY 22Z-01Z AS MOISTURE AND LIFT
INCREASE. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW STARTING THEN AS WELL BUT ONLY
ABOUT 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2-3SM IN LIGHT SNOW. THAT CHANCE
WILL END BY 04Z-06Z WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 171118
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST
THROUGH ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. THE VARIOUS SHORT RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THE BEST Q-G VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT STILL WEAK LIFT FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS ALREADY A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE WESTERN SLOPE
PER LATEST OBS AND GRAND JUNCTION RADAR. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL LIFT INCREASES. THE BEST SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCED BY AN AREA OF WEAK MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
THESE SITUATIONS USUALLY FAVOR AREAS FROM THE MOSQUITO RANGE
THROUGH BOREAS PASS AND MOUNT EVANS AREA...OR ALONG THE
SUMMIT/PARK/CLEAR CREEK COUNTY BORDERS SO ADJUSTED THOSE AMOUNTS
UP A BIT ACCORDINGLY. COULD SEE LOCAL 2-5 INCH ACCUMULATIONS THERE
WITH AN INCH OR LESS MOST OTHER MOUNTAIN LOCALES.

ON THE PLAINS...STILL UNSURE HOW THIS PANS OUT AS MOISTURE IS
LIMITED BELOW ABOUT 5000-6000 FT AGL. LOCATIONS ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE WOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DEVELOPING BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHILE THERE COULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTH. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOPS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SNOW
DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH INTO THE BOULDER/DENVER METRO
AREAS...WITH LOWER OR NO POPS FARTHER NORTH/EAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY MID/LATE EVENING AS
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. COULD
STILL SEE SHOWERS LINGER IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THOUGH WITH WEAK
OROGRAPHICS AS FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY BEHIND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AGAIN WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RATHER COOL START TO THE MORNING.

AREAS OF FOG ON THE PLAINS LOOKS THIS MORNING PER LATEST OBS AND
CIMMS GOES-R PROVING GROUND IFR PRODUCT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A RATHER MEAGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...BEFORE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

ON THURSDAY...AN OPEN WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER COLORADO. THE WEAK
DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OVER THE
NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SUBSIDENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SPREAD OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY...
BRINGING MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AN END. AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND...PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN INCREASING...BRINGING SNOW BACK INTO THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS.

AS THE WEEKEND WRAPS UP...A STRONG AND MOIST UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE OVER THE STATE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THIS COULD BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCER IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPE
WIND EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. AT THIS TIME
MODELS POINT TO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE WINDIEST PERIOD AND
MONDAY BEING THE SNOWIEST PERIOD IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A BIT OF
A REPRIEVE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE STATE ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY ON THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT DIA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH WEAK DENVER CYCLONE TURNING WINDS MORE WEST/NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...PRESENT T/TD SPREADS TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING CLOUDS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THREAT LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY LOWER TO ILS LANDINGS BY 22Z-01Z AS MOISTURE AND LIFT
INCREASE. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW STARTING THEN AS WELL BUT ONLY
ABOUT 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2-3SM IN LIGHT SNOW. THAT CHANCE
WILL END BY 04Z-06Z WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS65 KBOU 170354
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
854 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

TONIGHT`S FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SKIES CONTINUE TO
CLEAR AS MID-LEVELS DRY AND STABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
MID-LEVEL PERTABATION THAT PASSED BY EARLIER TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVERLAYING SNOW COVER ON THE
PLAINS MAY ONCE AGAIN CONDENSE OUT INTO PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG
AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND THEN EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS WITH FURTHER COOLING. COULD SEE VBSYS LOWERING TO
LESS THAN A MILE OR SO IN SPOTS NEAR THE STATE`S NORTHEAST
CORNER...HIGHER AREAS AROUND LIMON AND ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE
RIVER INTO WELD COUNTY. BY MORNING...SHOULD SEE SKIES FILLING
WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IT STILL APPEARS SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY BEGINNING IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS BEFORE THE NOON
HOUR. SHOULD THEN SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS NEXT
WAVE OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP MOVES IN FROM THE FOUR CORNERS.
NEEDED TO MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER...TEMPERATURE...
DEWPOINT AND WIND GRIDS DURING 1ST AND 2ND PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LITTLE RIPPLE OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
MOVING FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTHEAST BORDER AREAS. THERE MAY
BE A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND BUT NOT MUCH.
MEANWHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME WEAK SHOWERS UPSTREAM IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A BETTER BREAK LATER THIS EVENING THOUGH
STILL SOME CLOUD COVER...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SOME LIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND OVER THE PLAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS SYSTEM ALSO ONLY HAS WEAK LIFT...
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND NOTHING TO STOP LIGHT SNOW
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. MODELS BRING A SNOW BAND ONTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...NAM SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES...WHILE THE GFS HAS UNDER HALF AN INCH AND THAT
MAY NOT QUITE BE ENOUGH IF THERE IS SOME FOCUS. ACCEPTED A BLEND
OF THESE AND SMEARED OUT THE DETAIL A BIT...FOR NOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE PLAINS WILL SUFFICE BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED FOR A HIGHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

OTHER MINOR CHANGES INCLUDE MORE CLOUD COVER OVERALL THOUGH STILL
ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY
WARMER LOWS TONIGHT AND COOLER HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO ADDED SOME
AREAS OF FOG IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER WHICH HAS NOT WARMED AS MUCH
AND WILL SEE DECENT CLEARING FOR A WHILE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK QG ASCENT LINGERING OVER NORTHEAST CO
IN THE EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
PRIMARILY IN ZONE 34. BEST CHC OF SNOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DENVER TO AKRON. BY THURSDAY...THE AMS
WILL DRY OUT IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AOA
450 MB TO KEEP UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SYSTEM. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS CO THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST CHC OF SNOW WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SLGT CHC COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. A
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO ON FRIDAY
WITH THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES.
LESS CLOUD COVER MAY HELP THE MODIFY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT TO THE EAST
SATURDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE WL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE CWFA AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. BY SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH
MOISTURE FM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WL BE A CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER
WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST UPPER JET STRETCHING FROM THE PAC NW INTO COLORADO.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN OVER COLORADO ON TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 853 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS WITH SKIES
CLEARING THROUGH 2 AM. SKIES WILL THEN BEGIN TO FILL WITH HIGH
CLOUDS...AND THEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT
DRAINAGE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH CLOUD CEILINGS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. BY MIDDAY...COULD SEE BROKEN CIGS DOWN
AROUND 4500-5000 FT AGL WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN
THE AREA. BY MID-AFTERNOON TERMINALS COULD SEE TEMPO ILS CONDITIONS
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FOG AS AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 170354
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
854 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

TONIGHT`S FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SKIES CONTINUE TO
CLEAR AS MID-LEVELS DRY AND STABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
MID-LEVEL PERTABATION THAT PASSED BY EARLIER TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVERLAYING SNOW COVER ON THE
PLAINS MAY ONCE AGAIN CONDENSE OUT INTO PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG
AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND THEN EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS WITH FURTHER COOLING. COULD SEE VBSYS LOWERING TO
LESS THAN A MILE OR SO IN SPOTS NEAR THE STATE`S NORTHEAST
CORNER...HIGHER AREAS AROUND LIMON AND ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE
RIVER INTO WELD COUNTY. BY MORNING...SHOULD SEE SKIES FILLING
WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IT STILL APPEARS SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY BEGINNING IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS BEFORE THE NOON
HOUR. SHOULD THEN SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS NEXT
WAVE OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP MOVES IN FROM THE FOUR CORNERS.
NEEDED TO MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER...TEMPERATURE...
DEWPOINT AND WIND GRIDS DURING 1ST AND 2ND PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LITTLE RIPPLE OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
MOVING FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTHEAST BORDER AREAS. THERE MAY
BE A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND BUT NOT MUCH.
MEANWHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME WEAK SHOWERS UPSTREAM IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A BETTER BREAK LATER THIS EVENING THOUGH
STILL SOME CLOUD COVER...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SOME LIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND OVER THE PLAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS SYSTEM ALSO ONLY HAS WEAK LIFT...
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND NOTHING TO STOP LIGHT SNOW
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. MODELS BRING A SNOW BAND ONTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...NAM SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES...WHILE THE GFS HAS UNDER HALF AN INCH AND THAT
MAY NOT QUITE BE ENOUGH IF THERE IS SOME FOCUS. ACCEPTED A BLEND
OF THESE AND SMEARED OUT THE DETAIL A BIT...FOR NOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE PLAINS WILL SUFFICE BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED FOR A HIGHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

OTHER MINOR CHANGES INCLUDE MORE CLOUD COVER OVERALL THOUGH STILL
ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY
WARMER LOWS TONIGHT AND COOLER HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO ADDED SOME
AREAS OF FOG IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER WHICH HAS NOT WARMED AS MUCH
AND WILL SEE DECENT CLEARING FOR A WHILE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK QG ASCENT LINGERING OVER NORTHEAST CO
IN THE EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
PRIMARILY IN ZONE 34. BEST CHC OF SNOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DENVER TO AKRON. BY THURSDAY...THE AMS
WILL DRY OUT IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AOA
450 MB TO KEEP UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SYSTEM. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS CO THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST CHC OF SNOW WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SLGT CHC COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. A
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO ON FRIDAY
WITH THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES.
LESS CLOUD COVER MAY HELP THE MODIFY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT TO THE EAST
SATURDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE WL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE CWFA AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. BY SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH
MOISTURE FM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WL BE A CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER
WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST UPPER JET STRETCHING FROM THE PAC NW INTO COLORADO.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN OVER COLORADO ON TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 853 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS WITH SKIES
CLEARING THROUGH 2 AM. SKIES WILL THEN BEGIN TO FILL WITH HIGH
CLOUDS...AND THEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT
DRAINAGE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH CLOUD CEILINGS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. BY MIDDAY...COULD SEE BROKEN CIGS DOWN
AROUND 4500-5000 FT AGL WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN
THE AREA. BY MID-AFTERNOON TERMINALS COULD SEE TEMPO ILS CONDITIONS
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FOG AS AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 170354
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
854 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

TONIGHT`S FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SKIES CONTINUE TO
CLEAR AS MID-LEVELS DRY AND STABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
MID-LEVEL PERTABATION THAT PASSED BY EARLIER TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVERLAYING SNOW COVER ON THE
PLAINS MAY ONCE AGAIN CONDENSE OUT INTO PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG
AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND THEN EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS WITH FURTHER COOLING. COULD SEE VBSYS LOWERING TO
LESS THAN A MILE OR SO IN SPOTS NEAR THE STATE`S NORTHEAST
CORNER...HIGHER AREAS AROUND LIMON AND ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE
RIVER INTO WELD COUNTY. BY MORNING...SHOULD SEE SKIES FILLING
WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IT STILL APPEARS SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY BEGINNING IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS BEFORE THE NOON
HOUR. SHOULD THEN SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS NEXT
WAVE OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP MOVES IN FROM THE FOUR CORNERS.
NEEDED TO MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER...TEMPERATURE...
DEWPOINT AND WIND GRIDS DURING 1ST AND 2ND PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LITTLE RIPPLE OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
MOVING FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTHEAST BORDER AREAS. THERE MAY
BE A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND BUT NOT MUCH.
MEANWHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME WEAK SHOWERS UPSTREAM IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A BETTER BREAK LATER THIS EVENING THOUGH
STILL SOME CLOUD COVER...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SOME LIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND OVER THE PLAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS SYSTEM ALSO ONLY HAS WEAK LIFT...
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND NOTHING TO STOP LIGHT SNOW
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. MODELS BRING A SNOW BAND ONTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...NAM SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES...WHILE THE GFS HAS UNDER HALF AN INCH AND THAT
MAY NOT QUITE BE ENOUGH IF THERE IS SOME FOCUS. ACCEPTED A BLEND
OF THESE AND SMEARED OUT THE DETAIL A BIT...FOR NOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE PLAINS WILL SUFFICE BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED FOR A HIGHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

OTHER MINOR CHANGES INCLUDE MORE CLOUD COVER OVERALL THOUGH STILL
ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY
WARMER LOWS TONIGHT AND COOLER HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO ADDED SOME
AREAS OF FOG IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER WHICH HAS NOT WARMED AS MUCH
AND WILL SEE DECENT CLEARING FOR A WHILE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK QG ASCENT LINGERING OVER NORTHEAST CO
IN THE EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
PRIMARILY IN ZONE 34. BEST CHC OF SNOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DENVER TO AKRON. BY THURSDAY...THE AMS
WILL DRY OUT IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AOA
450 MB TO KEEP UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SYSTEM. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS CO THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST CHC OF SNOW WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SLGT CHC COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. A
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO ON FRIDAY
WITH THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES.
LESS CLOUD COVER MAY HELP THE MODIFY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT TO THE EAST
SATURDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE WL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE CWFA AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. BY SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH
MOISTURE FM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WL BE A CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER
WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST UPPER JET STRETCHING FROM THE PAC NW INTO COLORADO.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN OVER COLORADO ON TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 853 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS WITH SKIES
CLEARING THROUGH 2 AM. SKIES WILL THEN BEGIN TO FILL WITH HIGH
CLOUDS...AND THEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT
DRAINAGE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH CLOUD CEILINGS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. BY MIDDAY...COULD SEE BROKEN CIGS DOWN
AROUND 4500-5000 FT AGL WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN
THE AREA. BY MID-AFTERNOON TERMINALS COULD SEE TEMPO ILS CONDITIONS
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FOG AS AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 162226
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LITTLE RIPPLE OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
MOVING FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTHEAST BORDER AREAS. THERE MAY
BE A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND BUT NOT MUCH.
MEANWHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME WEAK SHOWERS UPSTREAM IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A BETTER BREAK LATER THIS EVENING THOUGH
STILL SOME CLOUD COVER...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SOME LIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND OVER THE PLAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS SYSTEM ALSO ONLY HAS WEAK LIFT...
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND NOTHING TO STOP LIGHT SNOW
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. MODELS BRING A SNOW BAND ONTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...NAM SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES...WHILE THE GFS HAS UNDER HALF AN INCH AND THAT
MAY NOT QUITE BE ENOUGH IF THERE IS SOME FOCUS. ACCEPTED A BLEND
OF THESE AND SMEARED OUT THE DETAIL A BIT...FOR NOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE PLAINS WILL SUFFICE BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED FOR A HIGHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

OTHER MINOR CHANGES INCLUDE MORE CLOUD COVER OVERALL THOUGH STILL
ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY
WARMER LOWS TONIGHT AND COOLER HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO ADDED SOME
AREAS OF FOG IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER WHICH HAS NOT WARMED AS MUCH
AND WILL SEE DECENT CLEARING FOR A WHILE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK QG ASCENT LINGERING OVER NORTHEAST CO
IN THE EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
PRIMARILY IN ZONE 34. BEST CHC OF SNOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DENVER TO AKRON. BY THURSDAY...THE AMS
WILL DRY OUT IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AOA
450 MB TO KEEP UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SYSTEM. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS CO THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST CHC OF SNOW WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SLGT CHC COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. A
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO ON FRIDAY
WITH THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES.
LESS CLOUD COVER MAY HELP THE MODIFY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT TO THE EAST
SATURDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE WL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE CWFA AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. BY SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH
MOISTURE FM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WL BE A CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER
WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST UPPER JET STRETCHING FROM THE PAC NW INTO COLORADO.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN OVER COLORADO ON TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. IF IT DOES SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 162226
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LITTLE RIPPLE OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
MOVING FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTHEAST BORDER AREAS. THERE MAY
BE A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND BUT NOT MUCH.
MEANWHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME WEAK SHOWERS UPSTREAM IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A BETTER BREAK LATER THIS EVENING THOUGH
STILL SOME CLOUD COVER...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SOME LIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND OVER THE PLAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS SYSTEM ALSO ONLY HAS WEAK LIFT...
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND NOTHING TO STOP LIGHT SNOW
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. MODELS BRING A SNOW BAND ONTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...NAM SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES...WHILE THE GFS HAS UNDER HALF AN INCH AND THAT
MAY NOT QUITE BE ENOUGH IF THERE IS SOME FOCUS. ACCEPTED A BLEND
OF THESE AND SMEARED OUT THE DETAIL A BIT...FOR NOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE PLAINS WILL SUFFICE BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED FOR A HIGHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

OTHER MINOR CHANGES INCLUDE MORE CLOUD COVER OVERALL THOUGH STILL
ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY
WARMER LOWS TONIGHT AND COOLER HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO ADDED SOME
AREAS OF FOG IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER WHICH HAS NOT WARMED AS MUCH
AND WILL SEE DECENT CLEARING FOR A WHILE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK QG ASCENT LINGERING OVER NORTHEAST CO
IN THE EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
PRIMARILY IN ZONE 34. BEST CHC OF SNOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DENVER TO AKRON. BY THURSDAY...THE AMS
WILL DRY OUT IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AOA
450 MB TO KEEP UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SYSTEM. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS CO THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST CHC OF SNOW WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SLGT CHC COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. A
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO ON FRIDAY
WITH THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES.
LESS CLOUD COVER MAY HELP THE MODIFY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT TO THE EAST
SATURDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE WL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE CWFA AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. BY SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH
MOISTURE FM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WL BE A CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER
WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST UPPER JET STRETCHING FROM THE PAC NW INTO COLORADO.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN OVER COLORADO ON TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. IF IT DOES SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD





000
FXUS65 KBOU 161835
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1135 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

LITTLE BIT OF LIFT WITH A RIBBON OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IS
PRODUCING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. FAIRLY
LIGHT IN SUMMIT COUNTY...BUT A BIT MORE IN THE WILDS FURTHER
NORTH. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH TO THIS TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES IN
THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. MEANWHILE THE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS THAN WHAT WE HAD
FORECAST IN MOST AREAS.

AT THIS TIME LIKING THE IDEA OF THE NAM SPREADING SOME LIGHT SNOW
ONTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED
THIS TO THE TAF...WILL PROBABLY MAKE THIS SOONER/MORE IN THE
PUBLIC PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON IF IT STILL LOOKS GOOD. NOT MUCH BUT
LOOKING LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF A LITTLE SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
DAY.

MOST OF THE INCOMING MOISTURE IS AT OR ABOVE 600 MB PER UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS...BUT WEAK AND PERSISTENT Q-G LIFT SHOULD BRING ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR SLIGHT MOISTENING. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND THEN PEAKING AROUND NOON BEFORE DECREASING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 2
INCHES FROM THIS WEAK WAVE.

ON THE PLAINS...DRY BUT RATHER STAGNANT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING CONSIDERING THE COLD START AND
STRONG BUT SHALLOW INVERSIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND
WITH PLENTY OF SNOW TO OUR EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURNING LIGHT
EASTERLY...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE STRUGGLING TO PUSH
INTO THE 30S. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS BASED ON ABOVE FACTORS AND
NEARLY THE LOWEST SUN ANGLE OF THE YEAR. SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS STILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF BEING WARMER GIVEN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND
LITTLE IF ANY INVERSION THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY TRANSITIONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING SEVEN DAYS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN COLORADO BY
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. BEYOND
THAT...A DIRTY RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH LOTS OF
MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS COLORADO ON
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  WEEK.

WEATHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER COLORADO FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS GOING TO LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
UNSETTLED AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. DRIER AND MORE
SETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW DOWN
ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE MOIST...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. IT COULD ALSO BE WINDY AT
TIMES SINCE THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE ARCHING OVER THE STATE AT
TIMES.

MUCH OF THIS FORECAST REASONING IS BASED ON THE SOLUTION PRESENTED
BY THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS HINTS AT SOME OF THE TROUGH
PASSAGES CONTAINING MORE AMPLITUDE THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE GFS MAINTAINS THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE FLOW
PATTERN THAT THE ECMWF CONTAINS. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL ACCEPT
THE ECMWF SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD





000
FXUS65 KBOU 161835
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1135 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

LITTLE BIT OF LIFT WITH A RIBBON OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IS
PRODUCING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. FAIRLY
LIGHT IN SUMMIT COUNTY...BUT A BIT MORE IN THE WILDS FURTHER
NORTH. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH TO THIS TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES IN
THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. MEANWHILE THE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS THAN WHAT WE HAD
FORECAST IN MOST AREAS.

AT THIS TIME LIKING THE IDEA OF THE NAM SPREADING SOME LIGHT SNOW
ONTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED
THIS TO THE TAF...WILL PROBABLY MAKE THIS SOONER/MORE IN THE
PUBLIC PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON IF IT STILL LOOKS GOOD. NOT MUCH BUT
LOOKING LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF A LITTLE SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
DAY.

MOST OF THE INCOMING MOISTURE IS AT OR ABOVE 600 MB PER UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS...BUT WEAK AND PERSISTENT Q-G LIFT SHOULD BRING ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR SLIGHT MOISTENING. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND THEN PEAKING AROUND NOON BEFORE DECREASING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 2
INCHES FROM THIS WEAK WAVE.

ON THE PLAINS...DRY BUT RATHER STAGNANT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING CONSIDERING THE COLD START AND
STRONG BUT SHALLOW INVERSIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND
WITH PLENTY OF SNOW TO OUR EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURNING LIGHT
EASTERLY...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE STRUGGLING TO PUSH
INTO THE 30S. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS BASED ON ABOVE FACTORS AND
NEARLY THE LOWEST SUN ANGLE OF THE YEAR. SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS STILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF BEING WARMER GIVEN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND
LITTLE IF ANY INVERSION THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY TRANSITIONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING SEVEN DAYS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN COLORADO BY
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. BEYOND
THAT...A DIRTY RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH LOTS OF
MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS COLORADO ON
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  WEEK.

WEATHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER COLORADO FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS GOING TO LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
UNSETTLED AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. DRIER AND MORE
SETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW DOWN
ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE MOIST...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. IT COULD ALSO BE WINDY AT
TIMES SINCE THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE ARCHING OVER THE STATE AT
TIMES.

MUCH OF THIS FORECAST REASONING IS BASED ON THE SOLUTION PRESENTED
BY THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS HINTS AT SOME OF THE TROUGH
PASSAGES CONTAINING MORE AMPLITUDE THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE GFS MAINTAINS THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE FLOW
PATTERN THAT THE ECMWF CONTAINS. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL ACCEPT
THE ECMWF SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 161121
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
DAY.

MOST OF THE INCOMING MOISTURE IS AT OR ABOVE 600 MB PER UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS...BUT WEAK AND PERSISTENT Q-G LIFT SHOULD BRING ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR SLIGHT MOISTENING. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND THEN PEAKING AROUND NOON BEFORE DECREASING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 2
INCHES FROM THIS WEAK WAVE.

ON THE PLAINS...DRY BUT RATHER STAGNANT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING CONSIDERING THE COLD START AND
STRONG BUT SHALLOW INVERSIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND
WITH PLENTY OF SNOW TO OUR EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURNING LIGHT
EASTERLY...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE STRUGGLING TO PUSH
INTO THE 30S. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS BASED ON ABOVE FACTORS AND
NEARLY THE LOWEST SUN ANGLE OF THE YEAR. SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS STILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF BEING WARMER GIVEN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND
LITTLE IF ANY INVERSION THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY TRANSITIONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING SEVEN DAYS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN COLORADO BY
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. BEYOND
THAT...A DIRTY RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH LOTS OF
MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS COLORADO ON
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  WEEK.

WEATHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER COLORADO FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS GOING TO LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
UNSETTLED AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. DRIER AND MORE
SETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW DOWN
ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE MOIST...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. IT COULD ALSO BE WINDY AT
TIMES SINCE THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE ARCHING OVER THE STATE AT
TIMES.

MUCH OF THIS FORECAST REASONING IS BASED ON THE SOLUTION PRESENTED
BY THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS HINTS AT SOME OF THE TROUGH
PASSAGES CONTAINING MORE AMPLITUDE THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE GFS MAINTAINS THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE FLOW
PATTERN THAT THE ECMWF CONTAINS. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL ACCEPT
THE ECMWF SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST TIL AROUND 16Z...THEN SHOULD SEE WINDS BECOMING
NORTH/NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD 18Z-19Z. WINDS MAY BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH WEAK DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT 10-20% CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT BY 12Z WEDNESDAY
GIVEN DENVER CYCLONE PATTERN IN PLACE AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 161121
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
DAY.

MOST OF THE INCOMING MOISTURE IS AT OR ABOVE 600 MB PER UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS...BUT WEAK AND PERSISTENT Q-G LIFT SHOULD BRING ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR SLIGHT MOISTENING. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND THEN PEAKING AROUND NOON BEFORE DECREASING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 2
INCHES FROM THIS WEAK WAVE.

ON THE PLAINS...DRY BUT RATHER STAGNANT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING CONSIDERING THE COLD START AND
STRONG BUT SHALLOW INVERSIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND
WITH PLENTY OF SNOW TO OUR EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURNING LIGHT
EASTERLY...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE STRUGGLING TO PUSH
INTO THE 30S. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS BASED ON ABOVE FACTORS AND
NEARLY THE LOWEST SUN ANGLE OF THE YEAR. SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS STILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF BEING WARMER GIVEN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND
LITTLE IF ANY INVERSION THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY TRANSITIONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING SEVEN DAYS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN COLORADO BY
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. BEYOND
THAT...A DIRTY RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH LOTS OF
MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS COLORADO ON
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  WEEK.

WEATHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER COLORADO FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS GOING TO LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
UNSETTLED AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. DRIER AND MORE
SETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW DOWN
ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE MOIST...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. IT COULD ALSO BE WINDY AT
TIMES SINCE THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE ARCHING OVER THE STATE AT
TIMES.

MUCH OF THIS FORECAST REASONING IS BASED ON THE SOLUTION PRESENTED
BY THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS HINTS AT SOME OF THE TROUGH
PASSAGES CONTAINING MORE AMPLITUDE THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE GFS MAINTAINS THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE FLOW
PATTERN THAT THE ECMWF CONTAINS. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL ACCEPT
THE ECMWF SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST TIL AROUND 16Z...THEN SHOULD SEE WINDS BECOMING
NORTH/NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD 18Z-19Z. WINDS MAY BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH WEAK DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT 10-20% CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT BY 12Z WEDNESDAY
GIVEN DENVER CYCLONE PATTERN IN PLACE AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS65 KBOU 161121 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
DAY.

MOST OF THE INCOMING MOISTURE IS AT OR ABOVE 600 MB PER UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS...BUT WEAK AND PERSISTENT Q-G LIFT SHOULD BRING ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR SLIGHT MOISTENING. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND THEN PEAKING AROUND NOON BEFORE DECREASING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 2
INCHES FROM THIS WEAK WAVE.

ON THE PLAINS...DRY BUT RATHER STAGNANT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING CONSIDERING THE COLD START AND
STRONG BUT SHALLOW INVERSIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND
WITH PLENTY OF SNOW TO OUR EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURNING LIGHT
EASTERLY...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE STRUGGLING TO PUSH
INTO THE 30S. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS BASED ON ABOVE FACTORS AND
NEARLY THE LOWEST SUN ANGLE OF THE YEAR. SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS STILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF BEING WARMER GIVEN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND
LITTLE IF ANY INVERSION THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY TRANSITIONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING SEVEN DAYS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN COLORADO BY
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. BEYOND
THAT...A DIRTY RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH LOTS OF
MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS COLORADO ON
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  WEEK.

WEATHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER COLORADO FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS GOING TO LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
UNSETTLED AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. DRIER AND MORE
SETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW DOWN
ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE MOIST...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. IT COULD ALSO BE WINDY AT
TIMES SINCE THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE ARCHING OVER THE STATE AT
TIMES.

MUCH OF THIS FORECAST REASONING IS BASED ON THE SOLUTION PRESENTED
BY THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS HINTS AT SOME OF THE TROUGH
PASSAGES CONTAINING MORE AMPLITUDE THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE GFS MAINTAINS THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE FLOW
PATTERN THAT THE ECMWF CONTAINS. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL ACCEPT
THE ECMWF SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST TIL AROUND 16Z...THEN SHOULD SEE WINDS BECOMING
NORTH/NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD 18Z-19Z. WINDS MAY BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH WEAK DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT 10-20% CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT BY 12Z WEDNESDAY
GIVEN DENVER CYCLONE PATTERN IN PLACE AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 161121 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
DAY.

MOST OF THE INCOMING MOISTURE IS AT OR ABOVE 600 MB PER UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS...BUT WEAK AND PERSISTENT Q-G LIFT SHOULD BRING ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR SLIGHT MOISTENING. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND THEN PEAKING AROUND NOON BEFORE DECREASING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 2
INCHES FROM THIS WEAK WAVE.

ON THE PLAINS...DRY BUT RATHER STAGNANT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING CONSIDERING THE COLD START AND
STRONG BUT SHALLOW INVERSIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND
WITH PLENTY OF SNOW TO OUR EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURNING LIGHT
EASTERLY...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE STRUGGLING TO PUSH
INTO THE 30S. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS BASED ON ABOVE FACTORS AND
NEARLY THE LOWEST SUN ANGLE OF THE YEAR. SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS STILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF BEING WARMER GIVEN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND
LITTLE IF ANY INVERSION THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY TRANSITIONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING SEVEN DAYS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN COLORADO BY
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. BEYOND
THAT...A DIRTY RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH LOTS OF
MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS COLORADO ON
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  WEEK.

WEATHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER COLORADO FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS GOING TO LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
UNSETTLED AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. DRIER AND MORE
SETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW DOWN
ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE MOIST...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. IT COULD ALSO BE WINDY AT
TIMES SINCE THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE ARCHING OVER THE STATE AT
TIMES.

MUCH OF THIS FORECAST REASONING IS BASED ON THE SOLUTION PRESENTED
BY THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS HINTS AT SOME OF THE TROUGH
PASSAGES CONTAINING MORE AMPLITUDE THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE GFS MAINTAINS THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE FLOW
PATTERN THAT THE ECMWF CONTAINS. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL ACCEPT
THE ECMWF SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST TIL AROUND 16Z...THEN SHOULD SEE WINDS BECOMING
NORTH/NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD 18Z-19Z. WINDS MAY BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH WEAK DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT 10-20% CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT BY 12Z WEDNESDAY
GIVEN DENVER CYCLONE PATTERN IN PLACE AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS65 KBOU 160423
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
923 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

STRONG GUSTY NWLY WINDS ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGH COUNTRY WINDS HAVE ALSO
EASED THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT WITH
PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. IN ADDITION...
SKIES THIS EVENING WERE NEARLY CLOUD-FREE ACROSS THE CWA BUT THAT
WILL SOON CHANGE WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A HIGH CLOUD SHIELD
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
BREEZES...SHOULD SEE A STEADY DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES...AT LEAST
UNTIL THE HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE AREA. IN AREAS WITH
EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER...SUCH AS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE...COULD SEE THE
MERCURY FALLING TO THE TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES ALREADY DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE HIGH MTN VALLEYS. AS LONG AS
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...TEMPERATURES IN THESE SAME AREAS COULD FALL
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER ONCE SKIES BEGIN TO FILL WITH CLOUDS AND WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF WARMER AIR ALOFT...MAY SEE READINGS IN THESE SAME
AREAS CREEPING UP. SHOULD NOT SEE ANY PRECIP FALLING FROM THE
APPROACHING CLOUDS EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS TOWARDS
MORNING WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO MTN TOP LEVEL.

CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING INCLUDE
ACCELERATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY WINDS IN AND
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND OVERNIGHT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR THE ADVANCING HIGH
CLOUD SHIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

THE SNOW OVER THE PLAINS HAS ALMOST ENDED...BUT THE STRONG NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 35 KNOTS. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE TO NO SNOW FALLING IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW AN
UPPER RIDGE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS DUE WESTERLY TONIGHT...THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...THE STRONG WINDS OVER
THE PLAINS WILL RELAX WITH TONIGHT`S WIND FIELDS ADHERING TO
DIURNAL PATTERNS. THE PLAINS LOOK TO HAVE SOUTHEASTERLIES ON
TUESDAY WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.
FOR MOISTURE...MODELS SHOW IT TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. SATELLITE PICTURES CONFIRM THIS. ON TUESDAY...THERE
IS FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND IN THE MOUNTAINS
...AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FOR THE
PLAINS. MOISTURE LOOKS DEEP ENOUGH IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
SOME OROGRAPHICS TO WARRANT "CHANCE" POPS OF SNOW THERE. THERE IS
EVEN SOME MINOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON THE QPF FIELDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. NO POPS FOR THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. NONE FOR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...THEN SOME AS MENTIONED
ABOVE FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD BE
FAIRLY COLD OUT ON THE PLAINS WHERE THE SNOW FIELD IS IN PLACE
AFTER THE WINDS SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING. TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE
1-3 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

...NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD...

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO COLORADO. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH DECENT OROGRAPHIC SW FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT
SNOWSHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND COMBINING WITH MORE DECENT QG ASCENT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM`S ENERGY
STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH SOME SURFACE RIDGING SO WILL KEEP
POPS LOW.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STRONG NW FLOW DOMINATES WITH RIDGING
MOVING IN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGING WILL BRING SLIGHTLY INCREASED
TEMPERATURES AND SOME MINOR CLEARING OVER THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
THE RIDGING IS SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE NW
AND MAKES IT WAY INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY SATURDAY EVENING. BY SUNDAY
MORNING THE MODELS START DIVERGING AT THIS POINT ON THE INTENSITY
AND PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM`S ENERGY BUT KEPT LOW POPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH NW FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 922 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

A LIGHT DRAINAGE WIND PATTERN HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF ACROSS THE
GREATER DENVER METRO AREA THIS EVENING. SPEEDS WERE GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 12 KTS. THIS WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AS NO WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ACT UPON IT. MEANWHILE CLEAR
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO FILL WITH HIGH CLOUDS/CIRROSTRATUS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SLOWING DOWN THE DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES. BY MORNING
EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY TO COMPLETELY COVERED WITH HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 160423
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
923 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

STRONG GUSTY NWLY WINDS ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGH COUNTRY WINDS HAVE ALSO
EASED THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT WITH
PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. IN ADDITION...
SKIES THIS EVENING WERE NEARLY CLOUD-FREE ACROSS THE CWA BUT THAT
WILL SOON CHANGE WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A HIGH CLOUD SHIELD
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
BREEZES...SHOULD SEE A STEADY DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES...AT LEAST
UNTIL THE HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE AREA. IN AREAS WITH
EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER...SUCH AS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE...COULD SEE THE
MERCURY FALLING TO THE TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES ALREADY DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE HIGH MTN VALLEYS. AS LONG AS
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...TEMPERATURES IN THESE SAME AREAS COULD FALL
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER ONCE SKIES BEGIN TO FILL WITH CLOUDS AND WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF WARMER AIR ALOFT...MAY SEE READINGS IN THESE SAME
AREAS CREEPING UP. SHOULD NOT SEE ANY PRECIP FALLING FROM THE
APPROACHING CLOUDS EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS TOWARDS
MORNING WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO MTN TOP LEVEL.

CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING INCLUDE
ACCELERATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY WINDS IN AND
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND OVERNIGHT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR THE ADVANCING HIGH
CLOUD SHIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

THE SNOW OVER THE PLAINS HAS ALMOST ENDED...BUT THE STRONG NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 35 KNOTS. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE TO NO SNOW FALLING IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW AN
UPPER RIDGE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS DUE WESTERLY TONIGHT...THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...THE STRONG WINDS OVER
THE PLAINS WILL RELAX WITH TONIGHT`S WIND FIELDS ADHERING TO
DIURNAL PATTERNS. THE PLAINS LOOK TO HAVE SOUTHEASTERLIES ON
TUESDAY WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.
FOR MOISTURE...MODELS SHOW IT TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. SATELLITE PICTURES CONFIRM THIS. ON TUESDAY...THERE
IS FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND IN THE MOUNTAINS
...AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FOR THE
PLAINS. MOISTURE LOOKS DEEP ENOUGH IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
SOME OROGRAPHICS TO WARRANT "CHANCE" POPS OF SNOW THERE. THERE IS
EVEN SOME MINOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON THE QPF FIELDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. NO POPS FOR THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. NONE FOR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...THEN SOME AS MENTIONED
ABOVE FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD BE
FAIRLY COLD OUT ON THE PLAINS WHERE THE SNOW FIELD IS IN PLACE
AFTER THE WINDS SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING. TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE
1-3 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

...NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD...

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO COLORADO. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH DECENT OROGRAPHIC SW FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT
SNOWSHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND COMBINING WITH MORE DECENT QG ASCENT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM`S ENERGY
STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH SOME SURFACE RIDGING SO WILL KEEP
POPS LOW.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STRONG NW FLOW DOMINATES WITH RIDGING
MOVING IN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGING WILL BRING SLIGHTLY INCREASED
TEMPERATURES AND SOME MINOR CLEARING OVER THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
THE RIDGING IS SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE NW
AND MAKES IT WAY INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY SATURDAY EVENING. BY SUNDAY
MORNING THE MODELS START DIVERGING AT THIS POINT ON THE INTENSITY
AND PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM`S ENERGY BUT KEPT LOW POPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH NW FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 922 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

A LIGHT DRAINAGE WIND PATTERN HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF ACROSS THE
GREATER DENVER METRO AREA THIS EVENING. SPEEDS WERE GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 12 KTS. THIS WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AS NO WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ACT UPON IT. MEANWHILE CLEAR
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO FILL WITH HIGH CLOUDS/CIRROSTRATUS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SLOWING DOWN THE DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES. BY MORNING
EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY TO COMPLETELY COVERED WITH HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...BAKER




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