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000
FXUS65 KBOU 252051
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
251 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW INCREASING OVER COLORADO. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF IT
HAS SPARKED CONVECTION OFF OVER COLORADO. A SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WILL PUSH FURTHER SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE GREAT PLAINS PUSHES IN...ADVECTING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
INCREASING QG LIFT AND CAPES OF 500-750 J/KG OUT ON THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS WILL ALLOW STRONGER STORMS MAINLY EAST OF AN EASTERN WELD
COUNTY TO NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY LINE. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SEVERE STRENGTH STORMS AS WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT
STRONG AND GIVEN A MORE SATURATED AIRMASS. COULD STILL SEE GUSTS
TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST TOWARD
THE URBAN CORRIDOR WILL BEGIN DRIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND VIRGA...THEN AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS FILTER IN...THERE WILL
BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. CAPE SHOULD STICK AROUND OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE...WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. MOUNTAINS HAVE SNOW LEVELS AROUND 10KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND
IT WILL LIKELY ONLY LOWER TO ABOUT 9KFT TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOME AREAS
ABLE TO PICK UP A FEW INCHES BUT IT WILL BE SPOTTY IN NATURE.

AS FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AND MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN
OVERNIGHT...WILL LIKELY SEE LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP OVER THE
PLAINS ESPECIALLY AS IT HITS UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FLOW
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL LIKELY PILE MOISTURE
AGAINST THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. HAVE 1/2 MILE
VIS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAY NEED TO THINK ABOUT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OVER THIS AREA.

UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INCREASE IN SPEED AND DEPTH TOMORROW AS UPWARD
QG MOTION REMAINS OVERHEAD  AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS INTO A CUT OFF
LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. LATEST GFS AND EC MODEL RUNS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS STARTING NOON TOMORROW
WITH THE EAST SLOPES THE MAIN FOCUS. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...IT WILL DEPEND ON TEMPERATURES ON HOW MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATES. ALSO...SOME CAPE BEING FORECASTED OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN WHICH COULD INCREASE AMOUNTS IN LOCALIZED AREAS. FOR
NOW...EXPECT 2 TO 8 INCHES TO FALL OVER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET
TOMORROW. OVER THE PLAINS...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
CLOUDS....SHOWERS AND FOG AROUND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL LIMIT HEATING DURING THE DAY...SO
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WITH AROUND 0.6 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FROM THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOURS INTO SUNDAY EVENING IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE
WHEN UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS DEEP AND STRONGEST NEAR 20 KNOTS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE LATEST 12Z MODEL TRENDS HAVE TURNED A BIT
COLDER...ALLOWING FOR THE SNOW LEVEL TO DROP QUICKER IN THE
EVENING DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP. SNOW LEVEL COULD NOW LOWER TO
AROUND 6500 FEET BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING PER LATEST DATA.

WE RAN THE LOCAL OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION MODEL AND SOME RATHER
LARGE NUMBERS WERE KICKED OUT FOR THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS IN
BOTH QPF AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A LARGE VARIATION OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LITERALLY RANGING FROM JUST
AN INCH OR TWO TO UPWARDS OF 20 INCHES. OVERALL FORECAST REFLECTS
A BLENDING OF THE OROGRAPHIC MODEL WITH SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT TIL NOON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SNOW INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
AS THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND Q-G SUPPORT BOTH WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL A WATCH OR JUMP TO A
WARNING COULD BE NEEDED IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS...BUT GIVEN ONLY
THE LATEST MODEL RUN HAS TRENDED COLDER WILL ALLOW FURTHER
DIAGNOSIS BEFORE ADDING ANY APPROPRIATE HIGHLIGHTS THERE. MOST
LIKELY...THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS WOULD BE CONFINED TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET SINCE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OCCURS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WHEN IT IS WARMER...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE THE SNOW LEVEL EVENTUALLY DROP DOWN TO THE PALMER
DIVIDE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF INCHES THERE. STILL EXPECT NOTHING BUT RAIN FROM THE
DENVER METRO AREA NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE BULK OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BE SHIFTING QUICKLY TOMORROW EVENING TO
THE FRONT RANGE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS INTO MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...SYSTEM SUPPORT CONTINUES TO DROP AWAY FROM
THE REGION SO WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
INTO MONDAY EVENING. IF SKIES CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT THEN COULD SEE
BELOW FREEZING TEMPS EVEN ON THE PLAINS...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
COULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER WITH SOME CLOUDS. THAT WEAK WAVE MAY
ATTEMPT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY...BUT MODELS ARE
TRENDING AWAY FROM THIS SCENARIO FOR NOW.

THEN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN
A GLANCING SHORT WAVE IS POSSIBLE. WE DO ANTICIPATE MOISTURE TO
GRADUALLY BUILD UNDER THE RIDGE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS BY
THURSDAY...AND OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND ACROSS THE DENVER AREA THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...THEN HIGH RES
MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING A BREAK IN ACTIVITY THROUGH 03Z...THEN
ANOTHER WAVE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH 06Z. MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY FALL BELOW
6000 FEET UNDER THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG. BY 12Z SUNDAY...EXPECT CEILINGS WILL BE BELOW 1000 FEET
WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY A HALF MILE OR LOWER.
HARD TO FORECAST RIGHT NOW IF IT WILL BE DRIZZLE OR RAIN SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS.

WIND DIRECTION CONTINUES TO BE VERY TRICKY AS A DENVER CYCLONE
IS BEGINNING TO BE AFFECTED BY CONVECTION. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS
TO GENERALLY TREND TOWARD A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW HEADS SOUTH...THEN EASTERLY LATER THIS
EVENING...VEERING TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THESE
SOUTHEAST/EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR COZ033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 251645
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1045 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST STILL ON TRACK FOR TODAY...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING STRONGER STORMS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS COMPARED TO CLOSER TO THE URBAN CORRIDOR...HOWEVER NOT SURE
IF SEVERE STRENGTH WILL OCCUR. DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY TO SEE
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM EASTERN WELD COUNTY DOWN TO LIMON.

AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WILL START TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. SO FAR...SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
AROUND 9,500-10,000 FEET TODAY THEN LOWER TO 8500 FEET TONIGHT.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OF CONVECTIVE NATURE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SO IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...NOT CONSIDERING ANY HIGHLIGHT
DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE IT WILL HAVE. SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MAY
SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES WHERE OTHER SPOTS MAY SEE LESS THAN AN INCH.
LOOKING FURTHER...UPSLOPE DEVELOPS SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL LIKELY INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM MAY BE
TOO FAR SOUTH...BUT THE RECENT GFS JUST CAME IN COOLER WITH SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO 7500 FEET. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A HIGHLIGHT FOR THE
FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER FOOTHILLS...BUT NEED
TO STILL EVALUATE SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS COMING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE STATE AT THIS TIME WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS COLORADO BY
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE ARE
SHOWERS OVER THE GREAT BASIN NOW. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AROUND OR JUST AFTER 18Z. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND NEAR BY PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH CAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. CAPES WILL BE LOWER NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. COULD BE A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WILL HAVE 30-50 POPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING DUE TO BETTER
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...BUT SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...THUS WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVER THIS AREA. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DUE TO THIS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRINCIPAL FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CLOSED LOW STORM SYSTEM
SWINGING SEWRD ACRS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
STORM TRACK IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED. CONSEQUENTLY ITS SPHERE OF INFLUENCE HAS ALSO SHIFTED
SOUTH WHICH PLACES SERN COLORADO IN THE BEST POSITION FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP THIS GO ROUND. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ACRS N-
CNTRL AND NERN COLORADO DO NOT LOOK AS COLD EITHER. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES NEARLY SATURATED BNDRY LAYER ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE MTNS
SUNDAY MORNING AS SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THAT REASON WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG UP ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE SUN MORNING. WILL ALSO HANG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS...BUT
PRECIP AMOUNTS RATES OF FALL SHOULD BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. AS THIS
UPSLOPE DEEPENS...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS WELL WITH COOLING ALOFT.
00Z/06Z NAM RUNS INDICATE AREAS OF CAPE ON THE 600-1200 J/KG RANGE
OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HRS ON SUNDAY. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO STILL UP AROUND
10000 FT MSL AT THAT TIME...PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN EXCEPT OVER
THE HIGHEST MTN PEAKS AND RIDGES. HAIL OR GRAUPEL ALSO A POSSIBILITY
WITH CBS BUILDING OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. BELIEVE THE BULK
OF THE SHOWERY PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL FALL ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 WITH THE GREATER PRECIP AMOUNTS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DVD ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES ON SUN AS MUCH
AS 15-18 DEG F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE IN PART TO THE
ANTICIPATED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS SHOW THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING
SEWRD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE ACRS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. MOST THE
UPWARD FORCING AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS STORM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...EAST-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH 15-25KT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS REACHING MTN TOP
LEVEL. EAST FACING MTN SLOPES ROUGHLY 8500 FT AND ABOVE ARE LIKELY
TO SEE ALL SNOW SUN NIGHT THRU MON MORNING...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
LOWERING TO AROUND 7000 FT WITH COLDER AREA FILTERS DOWN FROM
WYOMING AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACRS THE NRN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SNOW
TOTALS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...ESPLY EAST FACING SLOPES BY MON
AFTERNOON COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 5-15 INCHES. IT MAY BE NECESSARY
TO HOIST A WATCH OR ADVISORY SHOULD THESE AMOUNTS SHOW UP ON
THE NEXT MODEL RUN.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...UPPER LOW MOVES OUT AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL RETURN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AS THIS WEEKENDS STORM APPROACHES.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND ACROSS THE DENVER AREA AFTER 19Z. BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE DENVER AREA WILL BE 20-00Z...THEN IT SEEMS AS HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW A BREAK IN ACTIVITY THROUGH 03Z...THEN ANOTHER
WAVE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH 06Z. MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 6000 FEET
UNDER THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AFTER
06Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. BY 12Z
SUNDAY...EXPECT CEILINGS WILL BE BELOW 1000 FEET WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY A HALF MILE OR LOWER. HARD TO
FORECAST RIGHT NOW IF IT WILL BE DRIZZLE OR RAIN SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY.

WIND DIRECTION IS VERY TRICKY TODAY AS WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE
MIXING DOWN INTO THE FOOTHILLS...YET SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS MAY CYCLONE AROUND THE AROUND THE AIRPORTS. MIX
THIS WITH THE EXPECTED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECASTING
GETS DIFFICULT. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY TREND TOWARD A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON THEN EASTERLY TONIGHT THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 251645
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1045 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST STILL ON TRACK FOR TODAY...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING STRONGER STORMS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS COMPARED TO CLOSER TO THE URBAN CORRIDOR...HOWEVER NOT SURE
IF SEVERE STRENGTH WILL OCCUR. DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY TO SEE
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM EASTERN WELD COUNTY DOWN TO LIMON.

AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WILL START TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. SO FAR...SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
AROUND 9,500-10,000 FEET TODAY THEN LOWER TO 8500 FEET TONIGHT.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OF CONVECTIVE NATURE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SO IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...NOT CONSIDERING ANY HIGHLIGHT
DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE IT WILL HAVE. SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MAY
SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES WHERE OTHER SPOTS MAY SEE LESS THAN AN INCH.
LOOKING FURTHER...UPSLOPE DEVELOPS SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL LIKELY INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM MAY BE
TOO FAR SOUTH...BUT THE RECENT GFS JUST CAME IN COOLER WITH SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO 7500 FEET. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A HIGHLIGHT FOR THE
FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER FOOTHILLS...BUT NEED
TO STILL EVALUATE SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS COMING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE STATE AT THIS TIME WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS COLORADO BY
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE ARE
SHOWERS OVER THE GREAT BASIN NOW. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AROUND OR JUST AFTER 18Z. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND NEAR BY PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH CAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. CAPES WILL BE LOWER NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. COULD BE A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WILL HAVE 30-50 POPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING DUE TO BETTER
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...BUT SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...THUS WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVER THIS AREA. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DUE TO THIS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRINCIPAL FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CLOSED LOW STORM SYSTEM
SWINGING SEWRD ACRS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
STORM TRACK IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED. CONSEQUENTLY ITS SPHERE OF INFLUENCE HAS ALSO SHIFTED
SOUTH WHICH PLACES SERN COLORADO IN THE BEST POSITION FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP THIS GO ROUND. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ACRS N-
CNTRL AND NERN COLORADO DO NOT LOOK AS COLD EITHER. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES NEARLY SATURATED BNDRY LAYER ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE MTNS
SUNDAY MORNING AS SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THAT REASON WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG UP ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE SUN MORNING. WILL ALSO HANG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS...BUT
PRECIP AMOUNTS RATES OF FALL SHOULD BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. AS THIS
UPSLOPE DEEPENS...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS WELL WITH COOLING ALOFT.
00Z/06Z NAM RUNS INDICATE AREAS OF CAPE ON THE 600-1200 J/KG RANGE
OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HRS ON SUNDAY. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO STILL UP AROUND
10000 FT MSL AT THAT TIME...PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN EXCEPT OVER
THE HIGHEST MTN PEAKS AND RIDGES. HAIL OR GRAUPEL ALSO A POSSIBILITY
WITH CBS BUILDING OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. BELIEVE THE BULK
OF THE SHOWERY PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL FALL ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 WITH THE GREATER PRECIP AMOUNTS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DVD ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES ON SUN AS MUCH
AS 15-18 DEG F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE IN PART TO THE
ANTICIPATED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS SHOW THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING
SEWRD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE ACRS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. MOST THE
UPWARD FORCING AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS STORM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...EAST-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH 15-25KT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS REACHING MTN TOP
LEVEL. EAST FACING MTN SLOPES ROUGHLY 8500 FT AND ABOVE ARE LIKELY
TO SEE ALL SNOW SUN NIGHT THRU MON MORNING...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
LOWERING TO AROUND 7000 FT WITH COLDER AREA FILTERS DOWN FROM
WYOMING AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACRS THE NRN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SNOW
TOTALS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...ESPLY EAST FACING SLOPES BY MON
AFTERNOON COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 5-15 INCHES. IT MAY BE NECESSARY
TO HOIST A WATCH OR ADVISORY SHOULD THESE AMOUNTS SHOW UP ON
THE NEXT MODEL RUN.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...UPPER LOW MOVES OUT AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL RETURN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AS THIS WEEKENDS STORM APPROACHES.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND ACROSS THE DENVER AREA AFTER 19Z. BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE DENVER AREA WILL BE 20-00Z...THEN IT SEEMS AS HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW A BREAK IN ACTIVITY THROUGH 03Z...THEN ANOTHER
WAVE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH 06Z. MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 6000 FEET
UNDER THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AFTER
06Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. BY 12Z
SUNDAY...EXPECT CEILINGS WILL BE BELOW 1000 FEET WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY A HALF MILE OR LOWER. HARD TO
FORECAST RIGHT NOW IF IT WILL BE DRIZZLE OR RAIN SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY.

WIND DIRECTION IS VERY TRICKY TODAY AS WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE
MIXING DOWN INTO THE FOOTHILLS...YET SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS MAY CYCLONE AROUND THE AROUND THE AIRPORTS. MIX
THIS WITH THE EXPECTED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECASTING
GETS DIFFICULT. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY TREND TOWARD A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON THEN EASTERLY TONIGHT THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 251003
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
403 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE STATE AT THIS TIME WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS COLORADO BY
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE ARE
SHOWERS OVER THE GREAT BASIN NOW. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AROUND OR JUST AFTER 18Z. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND NEAR BY PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH CAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. CAPES WILL BE LOWER NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. COULD BE A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WILL HAVE 30-50 POPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING DUE TO BETTER
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...BUT SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...THUS WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVER THIS AREA. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DUE TO THIS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRINCIPAL FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CLOSED LOW STORM SYSTEM
SWINGING SEWRD ACRS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
STORM TRACK IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED. CONSEQUENTLY ITS SPHERE OF INFLUENCE HAS ALSO SHIFTED
SOUTH WHICH PLACES SERN COLORADO IN THE BEST POSITION FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP THIS GO ROUND. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ACRS N-
CNTRL AND NERN COLORADO DO NOT LOOK AS COLD EITHER. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES NEARLY SATURATED BNDRY LAYER ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE MTNS
SUNDAY MORNING AS SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THAT REASON WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG UP ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE SUN MORNING. WILL ALSO HANG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS...BUT
PRECIP AMOUNTS RATES OF FALL SHOULD BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. AS THIS
UPSLOPE DEEPENS...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS WELL WITH COOLING ALOFT.
00Z/06Z NAM RUNS INDICATE AREAS OF CAPE ON THE 600-1200 J/KG RANGE
OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HRS ON SUNDAY. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO STILL UP AROUND
10000 FT MSL AT THAT TIME...PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN EXCEPT OVER
THE HIGHEST MTN PEAKS AND RIDGES. HAIL OR GRAUPEL ALSO A POSSIBILITY
WITH CBS BUILDING OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. BELIEVE THE BULK
OF THE SHOWERY PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL FALL ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 WITH THE GREATER PRECIP AMOUNTS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DVD ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES ON SUN AS MUCH
AS 15-18 DEG F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE IN PART TO THE
ANTICIPATED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS SHOW THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING
SEWRD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE ACRS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. MOST THE
UPWARD FORCING AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS STORM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...EAST-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH 15-25KT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS REACHING MTN TOP
LEVEL. EAST FACING MTN SLOPES ROUGHLY 8500 FT AND ABOVE ARE LIKELY
TO SEE ALL SNOW SUN NIGHT THRU MON MORNING...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
LOWERING TO AROUND 7000 FT WITH COLDER AREA FILTERS DOWN FROM
WYOMING AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACRS THE NRN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SNOW
TOTALS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...ESPLY EAST FACING SLOPES BY MON
AFTERNOON COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 5-15 INCHES. IT MAY BE NECESSARY
TO HOIST A WATCH OR ADVISORY SHOULD THESE AMOUNTS SHOW UP ON
THE NEXT MODEL RUN.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...UPPER LOW MOVES OUT AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL RETURN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE DENVER AREA. BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE DENVER AREA WILL BE 21-01Z. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY FALL BELOW
6000 FEET UNDER THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. BY 12Z
SUNDAY...EXPECT CEILINGS WILL BE BELOW 1000 FEET WITH A GOOD CHANCE
OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY A HALF MILE OR LOWER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 251003
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
403 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE STATE AT THIS TIME WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS COLORADO BY
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE ARE
SHOWERS OVER THE GREAT BASIN NOW. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AROUND OR JUST AFTER 18Z. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND NEAR BY PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH CAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. CAPES WILL BE LOWER NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. COULD BE A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WILL HAVE 30-50 POPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING DUE TO BETTER
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...BUT SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...THUS WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVER THIS AREA. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DUE TO THIS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRINCIPAL FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CLOSED LOW STORM SYSTEM
SWINGING SEWRD ACRS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
STORM TRACK IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED. CONSEQUENTLY ITS SPHERE OF INFLUENCE HAS ALSO SHIFTED
SOUTH WHICH PLACES SERN COLORADO IN THE BEST POSITION FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP THIS GO ROUND. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ACRS N-
CNTRL AND NERN COLORADO DO NOT LOOK AS COLD EITHER. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES NEARLY SATURATED BNDRY LAYER ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE MTNS
SUNDAY MORNING AS SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THAT REASON WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG UP ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE SUN MORNING. WILL ALSO HANG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS...BUT
PRECIP AMOUNTS RATES OF FALL SHOULD BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. AS THIS
UPSLOPE DEEPENS...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS WELL WITH COOLING ALOFT.
00Z/06Z NAM RUNS INDICATE AREAS OF CAPE ON THE 600-1200 J/KG RANGE
OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HRS ON SUNDAY. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO STILL UP AROUND
10000 FT MSL AT THAT TIME...PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN EXCEPT OVER
THE HIGHEST MTN PEAKS AND RIDGES. HAIL OR GRAUPEL ALSO A POSSIBILITY
WITH CBS BUILDING OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. BELIEVE THE BULK
OF THE SHOWERY PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL FALL ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 WITH THE GREATER PRECIP AMOUNTS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DVD ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES ON SUN AS MUCH
AS 15-18 DEG F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE IN PART TO THE
ANTICIPATED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS SHOW THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING
SEWRD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE ACRS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. MOST THE
UPWARD FORCING AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS STORM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...EAST-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH 15-25KT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS REACHING MTN TOP
LEVEL. EAST FACING MTN SLOPES ROUGHLY 8500 FT AND ABOVE ARE LIKELY
TO SEE ALL SNOW SUN NIGHT THRU MON MORNING...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
LOWERING TO AROUND 7000 FT WITH COLDER AREA FILTERS DOWN FROM
WYOMING AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACRS THE NRN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SNOW
TOTALS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...ESPLY EAST FACING SLOPES BY MON
AFTERNOON COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 5-15 INCHES. IT MAY BE NECESSARY
TO HOIST A WATCH OR ADVISORY SHOULD THESE AMOUNTS SHOW UP ON
THE NEXT MODEL RUN.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...UPPER LOW MOVES OUT AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL RETURN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE DENVER AREA. BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE DENVER AREA WILL BE 21-01Z. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY FALL BELOW
6000 FEET UNDER THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. BY 12Z
SUNDAY...EXPECT CEILINGS WILL BE BELOW 1000 FEET WITH A GOOD CHANCE
OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY A HALF MILE OR LOWER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 251003
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
403 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE STATE AT THIS TIME WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS COLORADO BY
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE ARE
SHOWERS OVER THE GREAT BASIN NOW. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AROUND OR JUST AFTER 18Z. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND NEAR BY PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH CAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. CAPES WILL BE LOWER NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. COULD BE A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WILL HAVE 30-50 POPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING DUE TO BETTER
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...BUT SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...THUS WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVER THIS AREA. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DUE TO THIS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRINCIPAL FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CLOSED LOW STORM SYSTEM
SWINGING SEWRD ACRS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
STORM TRACK IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED. CONSEQUENTLY ITS SPHERE OF INFLUENCE HAS ALSO SHIFTED
SOUTH WHICH PLACES SERN COLORADO IN THE BEST POSITION FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP THIS GO ROUND. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ACRS N-
CNTRL AND NERN COLORADO DO NOT LOOK AS COLD EITHER. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES NEARLY SATURATED BNDRY LAYER ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE MTNS
SUNDAY MORNING AS SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THAT REASON WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG UP ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE SUN MORNING. WILL ALSO HANG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS...BUT
PRECIP AMOUNTS RATES OF FALL SHOULD BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. AS THIS
UPSLOPE DEEPENS...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS WELL WITH COOLING ALOFT.
00Z/06Z NAM RUNS INDICATE AREAS OF CAPE ON THE 600-1200 J/KG RANGE
OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HRS ON SUNDAY. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO STILL UP AROUND
10000 FT MSL AT THAT TIME...PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN EXCEPT OVER
THE HIGHEST MTN PEAKS AND RIDGES. HAIL OR GRAUPEL ALSO A POSSIBILITY
WITH CBS BUILDING OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. BELIEVE THE BULK
OF THE SHOWERY PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL FALL ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 WITH THE GREATER PRECIP AMOUNTS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DVD ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES ON SUN AS MUCH
AS 15-18 DEG F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE IN PART TO THE
ANTICIPATED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS SHOW THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING
SEWRD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE ACRS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. MOST THE
UPWARD FORCING AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS STORM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...EAST-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH 15-25KT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS REACHING MTN TOP
LEVEL. EAST FACING MTN SLOPES ROUGHLY 8500 FT AND ABOVE ARE LIKELY
TO SEE ALL SNOW SUN NIGHT THRU MON MORNING...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
LOWERING TO AROUND 7000 FT WITH COLDER AREA FILTERS DOWN FROM
WYOMING AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACRS THE NRN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SNOW
TOTALS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...ESPLY EAST FACING SLOPES BY MON
AFTERNOON COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 5-15 INCHES. IT MAY BE NECESSARY
TO HOIST A WATCH OR ADVISORY SHOULD THESE AMOUNTS SHOW UP ON
THE NEXT MODEL RUN.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...UPPER LOW MOVES OUT AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL RETURN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE DENVER AREA. BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE DENVER AREA WILL BE 21-01Z. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY FALL BELOW
6000 FEET UNDER THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. BY 12Z
SUNDAY...EXPECT CEILINGS WILL BE BELOW 1000 FEET WITH A GOOD CHANCE
OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY A HALF MILE OR LOWER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 250342
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
942 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

DISSIPATING SHOWERS AROUND THE FRINGES OF OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING...THEN MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MAKING THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.
ALL THIS ALREADY COVERED IN THE FORECAST. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE
STRENGTH OF FOOTHILLS WINDS TONIGHT...HRRR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A
LITTLE MOUNTAIN WAVE BUT MAINLY AFFECTING HIGH MOUNTAINS AND AREAS
JUST WEST OF BOULDER. FLOW MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH BEHIND THE
CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED TROUGH TO OUR EAST. ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE STATE HELPING SPARK
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LESS WIND ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
WILL KEEP STORMS WEAKER. COULD STILL SEE SOME SMALL HAIL OVER THE
EASTERN CO PLAINS WHERE THE JET OVER KANSAS COULD STILL HAVE AN
INFLUENCE. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
DECREASE ACTIVITY DURING THE SAME TIME. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER SYSTEM PUSH FURTHER INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AS RIDGING ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD...EXPECT SOME GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG AND OVER THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WILL BLOW
OVERNIGHT THOUGH THE NORMAL WINDY CHANNELED AREAS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE STATE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT FOLLOWING
BEHIND FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AN AREA OF HIGHER
CAPES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONGER
STORMS MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE SATURDAY EVENING
AS THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. Q-G
LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS COULD ACT TO SERVE AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM. STORM INTENSITY MAY INCREASE AS WELL BUT
RIGHT NOW INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG.

THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PUSH BACK TOWARD
THE FRONT RANGE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS
FEATURE CONTINUE TO BACK INTO THE FRONT RANGE...A HOST OF
PARAMETERS WILL COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR
SUNDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN AS THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF IN
NORTHEAST ARIZONA. THE AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH HIGH 700-500 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AROUND 3 G/KG...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 0.60 INCH ON THE PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD BE AN EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER IN A NEARLY NEUTRAL/SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. CANT EVEN RULE OUT SOME THUNDER IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF QUITE HIGH SUNDAY...NEAR
9000-9500 FEET...AND WILL ONLY LOWER MODESTLY TO AROUND 7000 FEET
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING PER LATEST WET BULB ZERO
LEVELS. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY
MONDAY FOR THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO OR NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR WINTER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHEST FOOTHILLS MAINLY ABOVE 8000-8500 FEET LATE
SUNDAY INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONCERNING THE LOW POSITION. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
THE MAIN STORM ENERGY IS STILL OFFSHORE WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
FURTHER TRACK ADJUSTMENTS. AS LONG AS THE STORM TRACK STAYS TO OUR
SOUTH AS GENERALLY AGREED UPON THEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL ALSO
STAY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...WE SHOULD SEE HEALTHY PRECIP
AMOUNTS...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN
THE FOOTHILLS/FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS.

BY TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A WEAK WAVE DROPPING IN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE STORM WHICH WOULD KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BUBBLE UP
UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY
MODERATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH READINGS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 942 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN IMPACT. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS FOR
A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 250342
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
942 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

DISSIPATING SHOWERS AROUND THE FRINGES OF OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING...THEN MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MAKING THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.
ALL THIS ALREADY COVERED IN THE FORECAST. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE
STRENGTH OF FOOTHILLS WINDS TONIGHT...HRRR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A
LITTLE MOUNTAIN WAVE BUT MAINLY AFFECTING HIGH MOUNTAINS AND AREAS
JUST WEST OF BOULDER. FLOW MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH BEHIND THE
CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED TROUGH TO OUR EAST. ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE STATE HELPING SPARK
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LESS WIND ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
WILL KEEP STORMS WEAKER. COULD STILL SEE SOME SMALL HAIL OVER THE
EASTERN CO PLAINS WHERE THE JET OVER KANSAS COULD STILL HAVE AN
INFLUENCE. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
DECREASE ACTIVITY DURING THE SAME TIME. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER SYSTEM PUSH FURTHER INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AS RIDGING ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD...EXPECT SOME GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG AND OVER THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WILL BLOW
OVERNIGHT THOUGH THE NORMAL WINDY CHANNELED AREAS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE STATE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT FOLLOWING
BEHIND FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AN AREA OF HIGHER
CAPES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONGER
STORMS MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE SATURDAY EVENING
AS THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. Q-G
LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS COULD ACT TO SERVE AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM. STORM INTENSITY MAY INCREASE AS WELL BUT
RIGHT NOW INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG.

THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PUSH BACK TOWARD
THE FRONT RANGE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS
FEATURE CONTINUE TO BACK INTO THE FRONT RANGE...A HOST OF
PARAMETERS WILL COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR
SUNDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN AS THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF IN
NORTHEAST ARIZONA. THE AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH HIGH 700-500 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AROUND 3 G/KG...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 0.60 INCH ON THE PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD BE AN EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER IN A NEARLY NEUTRAL/SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. CANT EVEN RULE OUT SOME THUNDER IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF QUITE HIGH SUNDAY...NEAR
9000-9500 FEET...AND WILL ONLY LOWER MODESTLY TO AROUND 7000 FEET
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING PER LATEST WET BULB ZERO
LEVELS. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY
MONDAY FOR THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO OR NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR WINTER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHEST FOOTHILLS MAINLY ABOVE 8000-8500 FEET LATE
SUNDAY INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONCERNING THE LOW POSITION. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
THE MAIN STORM ENERGY IS STILL OFFSHORE WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
FURTHER TRACK ADJUSTMENTS. AS LONG AS THE STORM TRACK STAYS TO OUR
SOUTH AS GENERALLY AGREED UPON THEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL ALSO
STAY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...WE SHOULD SEE HEALTHY PRECIP
AMOUNTS...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN
THE FOOTHILLS/FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS.

BY TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A WEAK WAVE DROPPING IN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE STORM WHICH WOULD KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BUBBLE UP
UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY
MODERATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH READINGS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 942 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN IMPACT. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS FOR
A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD





000
FXUS65 KBOU 242103
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
303 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE STATE HELPING SPARK
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LESS WIND ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
WILL KEEP STORMS WEAKER. COULD STILL SEE SOME SMALL HAIL OVER THE
EASTERN CO PLAINS WHERE THE JET OVER KANSAS COULD STILL HAVE AN
INFLUENCE. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
DECREASE ACTIVITY DURING THE SAME TIME. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER SYSTEM PUSH FURTHER INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AS RIDGING ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD...EXPECT SOME GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG AND OVER THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WILL BLOW
OVERNIGHT THOUGH THE NORMAL WINDY CHANNELED AREAS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE STATE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT FOLLOWING
BEHIND FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AN AREA OF HIGHER
CAPES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONGER
STORMS MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE SATURDAY EVENING
AS THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. Q-G
LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS COULD ACT TO SERVE AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM. STORM INTENSITY MAY INCREASE AS WELL BUT
RIGHT NOW INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG.

THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PUSH BACK TOWARD
THE FRONT RANGE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS
FEATURE CONTINUE TO BACK INTO THE FRONT RANGE...A HOST OF
PARAMETERS WILL COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR
SUNDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN AS THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF IN
NORTHEAST ARIZONA. THE AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH HIGH 700-500 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AROUND 3 G/KG...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 0.60 INCH ON THE PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD BE AN EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER IN A NEARLY NEUTRAL/SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. CANT EVEN RULE OUT SOME THUNDER IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF QUITE HIGH SUNDAY...NEAR
9000-9500 FEET...AND WILL ONLY LOWER MODESTLY TO AROUND 7000 FEET
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING PER LATEST WET BULB ZERO
LEVELS. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY
MONDAY FOR THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO OR NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR WINTER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHEST FOOTHILLS MAINLY ABOVE 8000-8500 FEET LATE
SUNDAY INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONCERNING THE LOW POSITION. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
THE MAIN STORM ENERGY IS STILL OFFSHORE WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
FURTHER TRACK ADJUSTMENTS. AS LONG AS THE STORM TRACK STAYS TO OUR
SOUTH AS GENERALLY AGREED UPON THEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL ALSO
STAY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...WE SHOULD SEE HEALTHY PRECIP
AMOUNTS...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN
THE FOOTHILLS/FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS.

BY TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A WEAK WAVE DROPPING IN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE STORM WHICH WOULD KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BUBBLE UP
UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY
MODERATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH READINGS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS SHOULD TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST/WESTERLY THIS EVENING.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FOOTHILLS WILL MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO AFFECT KBDU AND
NORTH...AS WELL AS THE SOUTH METRO AREA INCLUDING KAPA. ANOTHER
MAY SKIRT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF KBJC. KDEN MAY JUST ESCAPE THE
ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE TAFS...BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD THEM IN FOR KAPA LATER...POSSIBLY FOR KBJC EARLIER.
THESE STORMS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAINLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
AND WESTERLY WINDS TO THE TERMINALS. DOWNSLOPING PATTERN OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TO 35 KTS NEAR KBJC AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL AS SOME
HIGH MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS.

LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY LOWER CEILINGS WITH SHOWERS INCREASING LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 242103
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
303 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE STATE HELPING SPARK
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LESS WIND ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
WILL KEEP STORMS WEAKER. COULD STILL SEE SOME SMALL HAIL OVER THE
EASTERN CO PLAINS WHERE THE JET OVER KANSAS COULD STILL HAVE AN
INFLUENCE. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
DECREASE ACTIVITY DURING THE SAME TIME. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER SYSTEM PUSH FURTHER INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AS RIDGING ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD...EXPECT SOME GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG AND OVER THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WILL BLOW
OVERNIGHT THOUGH THE NORMAL WINDY CHANNELED AREAS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE STATE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT FOLLOWING
BEHIND FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AN AREA OF HIGHER
CAPES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONGER
STORMS MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE SATURDAY EVENING
AS THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. Q-G
LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS COULD ACT TO SERVE AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM. STORM INTENSITY MAY INCREASE AS WELL BUT
RIGHT NOW INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG.

THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PUSH BACK TOWARD
THE FRONT RANGE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS
FEATURE CONTINUE TO BACK INTO THE FRONT RANGE...A HOST OF
PARAMETERS WILL COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR
SUNDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN AS THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF IN
NORTHEAST ARIZONA. THE AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH HIGH 700-500 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AROUND 3 G/KG...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 0.60 INCH ON THE PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD BE AN EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER IN A NEARLY NEUTRAL/SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. CANT EVEN RULE OUT SOME THUNDER IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF QUITE HIGH SUNDAY...NEAR
9000-9500 FEET...AND WILL ONLY LOWER MODESTLY TO AROUND 7000 FEET
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING PER LATEST WET BULB ZERO
LEVELS. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY
MONDAY FOR THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO OR NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR WINTER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHEST FOOTHILLS MAINLY ABOVE 8000-8500 FEET LATE
SUNDAY INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONCERNING THE LOW POSITION. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
THE MAIN STORM ENERGY IS STILL OFFSHORE WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
FURTHER TRACK ADJUSTMENTS. AS LONG AS THE STORM TRACK STAYS TO OUR
SOUTH AS GENERALLY AGREED UPON THEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL ALSO
STAY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...WE SHOULD SEE HEALTHY PRECIP
AMOUNTS...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN
THE FOOTHILLS/FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS.

BY TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A WEAK WAVE DROPPING IN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE STORM WHICH WOULD KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BUBBLE UP
UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY
MODERATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH READINGS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS SHOULD TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST/WESTERLY THIS EVENING.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FOOTHILLS WILL MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO AFFECT KBDU AND
NORTH...AS WELL AS THE SOUTH METRO AREA INCLUDING KAPA. ANOTHER
MAY SKIRT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF KBJC. KDEN MAY JUST ESCAPE THE
ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE TAFS...BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD THEM IN FOR KAPA LATER...POSSIBLY FOR KBJC EARLIER.
THESE STORMS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAINLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
AND WESTERLY WINDS TO THE TERMINALS. DOWNSLOPING PATTERN OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TO 35 KTS NEAR KBJC AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL AS SOME
HIGH MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS.

LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY LOWER CEILINGS WITH SHOWERS INCREASING LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 241634
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1034 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE FOG
FORMED THIS MORNING IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS ABOVE 45 DEGREES...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM EASTERN WELD COUNTY DOWN TO WASHINGTON COUNTY.
WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVER THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND UPWARD QG MOTION MAXING OUT BY NOON...SHOULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START FIRING WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST
NORTHEAST WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. LESS CAPE IS AVAILABLE TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON
OUT ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN RESULT
MORE IN JUST GUSTY WINDS HERE ALONG THE METRO AREAS AS DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO NEAR FOUR CORNERS REGION AROUND 12Z THEN EAST/NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. MODERATE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL QG ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THIS WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH DEEPEN A BIT AND SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS
WELL BY THIS EVENING. IN THE MOUNTAINS...OVERALL PROSPECTS FOR
PCPN NOT VERY HIGH WITH A MIX OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATE TONIGHT...THE AIRMASS STABILIZES FM THE WEST WITH A
MOUNTAINS WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. AS A
RESULT...GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE ALL THATS LEFT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO...FORECAST
CAPES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 400 J/KG AT DENVER WITH SOME HIGHER
CAPES AROUND 700 J/KG AT AKRON AND LIMON. AS A RESULT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING MAINLY AROUND LIMON. THIS AFTERNOON...BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN CO BORDER. OVERALL
STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE PRIMARILY GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...BUT ONLY BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY MORNING WILL START OFF DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO
EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES...MAINLY GREATER
THE 7 C/KM UP TO 300 MB...WILL BE IN PLACE. SURFACE BASED CAPES
WILL BE UP TO 1000 J/KG. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DIG FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND
BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS 18Z SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERSISTENT RAIN TO THE FRONT RANGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SNOW LEVEL WILL START OFF
AROUND 9000 FEET AND THEN LOWER SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW TRAVELING ACROSS NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT THEN INTO TEXAS MONDAY. AS THE LOW SHIFTS AWAY
FROM COLORADO...PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
KEEP A WEAK MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE AREA MONDAY...SO WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. EXPECT IT TO BE COOL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
THIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
LATE THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NLY BY THIS AFTERNOON...UNSURE IF IT
WILL GO CLOCKWISE OR COUNTERCLOCKWISE AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 7 KTS DURING THE TRANSITION. THEN EXPECT
NORTHWEST/WESTERLY THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TSTMS OUT
OF THE TERMINALS IN THE UPCOMING TAFS...BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE
EAST AND SOUTH OF DENVER. A FEW CELLS COULD PUSH OFF THE HIGH
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER AND BRING SHORTLIVED WESTERLY WINDS
TO THE TERMINALS. DOWNSLOPING PATTERN OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO 35
KTS NEAR KBJC AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 240902
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO NEAR FOUR CORNERS REGION AROUND 12Z THEN EAST/NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. MODERATE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL QG ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THIS WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH DEEPEN A BIT AND SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS
WELL BY THIS EVENING. IN THE MOUNTAINS...OVERALL PROSPECTS FOR
PCPN NOT VERY HIGH WITH A MIX OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATE TONIGHT...THE AIRMASS STABILIZES FM THE WEST WITH A
MOUNTAINS WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. AS A
RESULT...GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE ALL THATS LEFT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO...FORECAST
CAPES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 400 J/KG AT DENVER WITH SOME HIGHER
CAPES AROUND 700 J/KG AT AKRON AND LIMON. AS A RESULT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING MAINLY AROUND LIMON. THIS AFTERNOON...BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN CO BORDER. OVERALL
STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE PRIMARILY GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...BUT ONLY BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY MORNING WILL START OFF DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO
EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES...MAINLY GREATER
THE 7 C/KM UP TO 300 MB...WILL BE IN PLACE. SURFACE BASED CAPES
WILL BE UP TO 1000 J/KG. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DIG FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND
BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS 18Z SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERSISTENT RAIN TO THE FRONT RANGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SNOW LEVEL WILL START OFF
AROUND 9000 FEET AND THEN LOWER SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW TRAVELING ACROSS NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT THEN INTO TEXAS MONDAY. AS THE LOW SHIFTS AWAY
FROM COLORADO...PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
KEEP A WEAK MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE AREA MONDAY...SO WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. EXPECT IT TO BE COOL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
THIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SWLY WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME NLY BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN NORTHWEST/WESTERLY THIS
EVENING. WL KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE TERMINALS IN THE UPCOMING
TAFS...BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF DENVER. COULD SEE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO 35 KTS DEVELOP AT KBJC AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 240902
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO NEAR FOUR CORNERS REGION AROUND 12Z THEN EAST/NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. MODERATE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL QG ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THIS WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH DEEPEN A BIT AND SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS
WELL BY THIS EVENING. IN THE MOUNTAINS...OVERALL PROSPECTS FOR
PCPN NOT VERY HIGH WITH A MIX OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATE TONIGHT...THE AIRMASS STABILIZES FM THE WEST WITH A
MOUNTAINS WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. AS A
RESULT...GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE ALL THATS LEFT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO...FORECAST
CAPES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 400 J/KG AT DENVER WITH SOME HIGHER
CAPES AROUND 700 J/KG AT AKRON AND LIMON. AS A RESULT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING MAINLY AROUND LIMON. THIS AFTERNOON...BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN CO BORDER. OVERALL
STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE PRIMARILY GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...BUT ONLY BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY MORNING WILL START OFF DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO
EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES...MAINLY GREATER
THE 7 C/KM UP TO 300 MB...WILL BE IN PLACE. SURFACE BASED CAPES
WILL BE UP TO 1000 J/KG. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DIG FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND
BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS 18Z SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERSISTENT RAIN TO THE FRONT RANGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SNOW LEVEL WILL START OFF
AROUND 9000 FEET AND THEN LOWER SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW TRAVELING ACROSS NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT THEN INTO TEXAS MONDAY. AS THE LOW SHIFTS AWAY
FROM COLORADO...PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
KEEP A WEAK MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE AREA MONDAY...SO WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. EXPECT IT TO BE COOL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
THIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SWLY WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME NLY BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN NORTHWEST/WESTERLY THIS
EVENING. WL KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE TERMINALS IN THE UPCOMING
TAFS...BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF DENVER. COULD SEE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO 35 KTS DEVELOP AT KBJC AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 240902
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO NEAR FOUR CORNERS REGION AROUND 12Z THEN EAST/NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. MODERATE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL QG ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THIS WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH DEEPEN A BIT AND SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS
WELL BY THIS EVENING. IN THE MOUNTAINS...OVERALL PROSPECTS FOR
PCPN NOT VERY HIGH WITH A MIX OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATE TONIGHT...THE AIRMASS STABILIZES FM THE WEST WITH A
MOUNTAINS WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. AS A
RESULT...GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE ALL THATS LEFT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO...FORECAST
CAPES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 400 J/KG AT DENVER WITH SOME HIGHER
CAPES AROUND 700 J/KG AT AKRON AND LIMON. AS A RESULT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING MAINLY AROUND LIMON. THIS AFTERNOON...BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN CO BORDER. OVERALL
STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE PRIMARILY GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...BUT ONLY BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY MORNING WILL START OFF DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO
EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES...MAINLY GREATER
THE 7 C/KM UP TO 300 MB...WILL BE IN PLACE. SURFACE BASED CAPES
WILL BE UP TO 1000 J/KG. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DIG FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND
BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS 18Z SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERSISTENT RAIN TO THE FRONT RANGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SNOW LEVEL WILL START OFF
AROUND 9000 FEET AND THEN LOWER SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW TRAVELING ACROSS NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT THEN INTO TEXAS MONDAY. AS THE LOW SHIFTS AWAY
FROM COLORADO...PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
KEEP A WEAK MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE AREA MONDAY...SO WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. EXPECT IT TO BE COOL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
THIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SWLY WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME NLY BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN NORTHWEST/WESTERLY THIS
EVENING. WL KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE TERMINALS IN THE UPCOMING
TAFS...BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF DENVER. COULD SEE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO 35 KTS DEVELOP AT KBJC AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 240902
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO NEAR FOUR CORNERS REGION AROUND 12Z THEN EAST/NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. MODERATE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL QG ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THIS WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH DEEPEN A BIT AND SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS
WELL BY THIS EVENING. IN THE MOUNTAINS...OVERALL PROSPECTS FOR
PCPN NOT VERY HIGH WITH A MIX OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATE TONIGHT...THE AIRMASS STABILIZES FM THE WEST WITH A
MOUNTAINS WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. AS A
RESULT...GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE ALL THATS LEFT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO...FORECAST
CAPES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 400 J/KG AT DENVER WITH SOME HIGHER
CAPES AROUND 700 J/KG AT AKRON AND LIMON. AS A RESULT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING MAINLY AROUND LIMON. THIS AFTERNOON...BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN CO BORDER. OVERALL
STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE PRIMARILY GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...BUT ONLY BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY MORNING WILL START OFF DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO
EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES...MAINLY GREATER
THE 7 C/KM UP TO 300 MB...WILL BE IN PLACE. SURFACE BASED CAPES
WILL BE UP TO 1000 J/KG. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DIG FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND
BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS 18Z SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERSISTENT RAIN TO THE FRONT RANGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SNOW LEVEL WILL START OFF
AROUND 9000 FEET AND THEN LOWER SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW TRAVELING ACROSS NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT THEN INTO TEXAS MONDAY. AS THE LOW SHIFTS AWAY
FROM COLORADO...PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
KEEP A WEAK MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE AREA MONDAY...SO WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. EXPECT IT TO BE COOL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
THIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SWLY WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME NLY BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN NORTHWEST/WESTERLY THIS
EVENING. WL KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE TERMINALS IN THE UPCOMING
TAFS...BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF DENVER. COULD SEE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO 35 KTS DEVELOP AT KBJC AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 240207
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
807 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL LINGER OVER THE FAR ERN
PLAINS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ONLY WIDELY SCT ACTIVITY
FURTHER WEST INTO THE MOUNTAINS. MOST PCPN SHOULD END AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WITH MAIN IMPACTS OF GUSTY WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LACKING AS DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 20S. FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROF...SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS INT THE MID AND UPPER 40S. RESULTANT SURFACE
BASED CAPES UP TO 1500J/KG MAY SPARK A STRONGER/SEVERE STORM WITH
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. COULD SEE A RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG ON THE FAR
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT SO HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUDS TO THE WEATHER
GRIDS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME QG ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.
APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING TO KEEP MOISTURE
LEVELS AT LOW LEVELS. HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN BE OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND HIGHER QG ASCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SWEEPS ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CO/KS BORDER WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST AND QG VERTICAL VELOCITY TURNS DOWNWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND
CUTOFF JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH OVER THE AREA WHICH
WILL TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH PUSHING DOWN OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH ANY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AND AGAINST
THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL. LOOK FOR INCREASING SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO ABOUT
9000 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN
AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES WHERE THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS
WITH HEAVIER RAIN. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAS T ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY INTO THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO FOCUS MORE MOISTURE AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTH TO
DRAW IN COOLER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY WOULD DROP SNOW LEVELS TO
AROUND 7000 FEET. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
SEVERAL INCHES COULD FALL OVER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM TO SEE IF ANY HIGHLIGHTS WOULD BE
NEEDED.

THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN TEXAS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE COOL MONDAY WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
PUSH INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST TO BEGIN A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THE GFS SHOWED FOR TUESDAY HAS NOW
TRENDED FURTHER EAST...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND DRY TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 803 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A BOUNDARY IS MOVING NNW WHICH MAY SWITCH WINDS TO A MORE SSE
DIRECTION THROUGH 04Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH BACK TO A
MORE SSW DIRECTION WITH DRAINAGE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 240207
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
807 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL LINGER OVER THE FAR ERN
PLAINS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ONLY WIDELY SCT ACTIVITY
FURTHER WEST INTO THE MOUNTAINS. MOST PCPN SHOULD END AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WITH MAIN IMPACTS OF GUSTY WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LACKING AS DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 20S. FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROF...SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS INT THE MID AND UPPER 40S. RESULTANT SURFACE
BASED CAPES UP TO 1500J/KG MAY SPARK A STRONGER/SEVERE STORM WITH
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. COULD SEE A RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG ON THE FAR
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT SO HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUDS TO THE WEATHER
GRIDS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME QG ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.
APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING TO KEEP MOISTURE
LEVELS AT LOW LEVELS. HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN BE OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND HIGHER QG ASCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SWEEPS ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CO/KS BORDER WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST AND QG VERTICAL VELOCITY TURNS DOWNWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND
CUTOFF JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH OVER THE AREA WHICH
WILL TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH PUSHING DOWN OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH ANY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AND AGAINST
THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL. LOOK FOR INCREASING SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO ABOUT
9000 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN
AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES WHERE THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS
WITH HEAVIER RAIN. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAS T ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY INTO THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO FOCUS MORE MOISTURE AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTH TO
DRAW IN COOLER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY WOULD DROP SNOW LEVELS TO
AROUND 7000 FEET. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
SEVERAL INCHES COULD FALL OVER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM TO SEE IF ANY HIGHLIGHTS WOULD BE
NEEDED.

THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN TEXAS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE COOL MONDAY WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
PUSH INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST TO BEGIN A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THE GFS SHOWED FOR TUESDAY HAS NOW
TRENDED FURTHER EAST...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND DRY TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 803 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A BOUNDARY IS MOVING NNW WHICH MAY SWITCH WINDS TO A MORE SSE
DIRECTION THROUGH 04Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH BACK TO A
MORE SSW DIRECTION WITH DRAINAGE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RPK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 232108
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
308 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WITH MAIN IMPACTS OF GUSTY WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LACKING AS DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 20S. FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROF...SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS INT THE MID AND UPPER 40S. RESULTANT SURFACE
BASED CAPES UP TO 1500J/KG MAY SPARK A STRONGER/SEVERE STORM WITH
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. COULD SEE A RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG ON THE FAR
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT SO HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUDS TO THE WEATHER
GRIDS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME QG ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.
APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING TO KEEP MOISTURE
LEVELS AT LOW LEVELS. HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN BE OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND HIGHER QG ASCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SWEEPS ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CO/KS BORDER WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST AND QG VERTICAL VELOCITY TURNS DOWNWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND
CUTOFF JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH OVER THE AREA WHICH
WILL TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH PUSHING DOWN OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH ANY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AND AGAINST
THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL. LOOK FOR INCREASING SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO ABOUT
9000 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN
AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES WHERE THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS
WITH HEAVIER RAIN. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAS T ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY INTO THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO FOCUS MORE MOISTURE AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTH TO
DRAW IN COOLER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY WOULD DROP SNOW LEVELS TO
AROUND 7000 FEET. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
SEVERAL INCHES COULD FALL OVER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM TO SEE IF ANY HIGHLIGHTS WOULD BE
NEEDED.

THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN TEXAS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE COOL MONDAY WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
PUSH INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST TO BEGIN A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THE GFS SHOWED FOR TUESDAY HAS NOW
TRENDED FURTHER EAST...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND DRY TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS TERMINALS WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS REPORTED AT APA/DEN. NOT A LOT OF ACTIVITY
BEHIND THE CURRENT SHOWERS SO MAY BE ABLE TO REDUCE THE TS/WIND
GUSTS CURRENTLY IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO DRAINAGE
LATER THIS EVENING. MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS AND LESSER CHANCES OF TS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 232108
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
308 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WITH MAIN IMPACTS OF GUSTY WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LACKING AS DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 20S. FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROF...SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS INT THE MID AND UPPER 40S. RESULTANT SURFACE
BASED CAPES UP TO 1500J/KG MAY SPARK A STRONGER/SEVERE STORM WITH
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. COULD SEE A RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG ON THE FAR
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT SO HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUDS TO THE WEATHER
GRIDS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME QG ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.
APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING TO KEEP MOISTURE
LEVELS AT LOW LEVELS. HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN BE OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND HIGHER QG ASCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SWEEPS ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CO/KS BORDER WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST AND QG VERTICAL VELOCITY TURNS DOWNWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND
CUTOFF JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH OVER THE AREA WHICH
WILL TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH PUSHING DOWN OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH ANY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AND AGAINST
THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL. LOOK FOR INCREASING SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO ABOUT
9000 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN
AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES WHERE THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS
WITH HEAVIER RAIN. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAS T ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY INTO THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO FOCUS MORE MOISTURE AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTH TO
DRAW IN COOLER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY WOULD DROP SNOW LEVELS TO
AROUND 7000 FEET. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
SEVERAL INCHES COULD FALL OVER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM TO SEE IF ANY HIGHLIGHTS WOULD BE
NEEDED.

THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN TEXAS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE COOL MONDAY WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
PUSH INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST TO BEGIN A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THE GFS SHOWED FOR TUESDAY HAS NOW
TRENDED FURTHER EAST...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND DRY TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS TERMINALS WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS REPORTED AT APA/DEN. NOT A LOT OF ACTIVITY
BEHIND THE CURRENT SHOWERS SO MAY BE ABLE TO REDUCE THE TS/WIND
GUSTS CURRENTLY IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO DRAINAGE
LATER THIS EVENING. MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS AND LESSER CHANCES OF TS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 231627
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1027 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

MUCH OF THE STRATUS/FOG HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH SOME MID-HI LVL MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
WITH A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS A JET STREAK OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME WEAK QG ASCENT ESPECIALLY OVER
FAR EASTERN COLORADO. SURFACE TROF OVER FRONT RANGE WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER FAR EAST COLORADO. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND RESULTANT SURFACE
BASED CAPES FROM 800-1500J/KG. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE FOCUS FOR
ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LESSER CHANCES OF STORMS FURTHER
WEST TOWARDS THE FRONT RANGE WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS. ONGOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL QG ASCENT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MOUNTAINS...PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...THE MDLS MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS. THE MDLS KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH AND JUST SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAINFALL.
NAM12 SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON YIELD CAPES AROUND 800 J/KG. COULD
SEE A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BE A VERY INTENSE ONE. FURTHER EAST...THE MDLS HAVE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 40S. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG...POTENTIALLY
SEVERE...STORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM NEW RAYMER TO FORT
MORGAN TO LIMON. FORECAST CAPES IN THIS REGION IN THE 1200-1500
J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST WINDOW FOR THE STORMS
WILL BE FROM AROUND 22Z TO 03Z...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS COULD BE HAIL TO ONE INCH AND
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL PRODUCE A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE FRIDAY WITH CAPES UP TO
500 J/KG. WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL HELP AND ALSO OVER THE PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE THE
BEST. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE STATE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z SUNDAY AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

BY 12Z SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING THE PACIFIC TROUGH CLOSING OFF JUST
EAST OF LAS VEGAS. OVERALL...MODEL AGREEMENT NOT TOO BAD WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY ENTERING
NORTHERN TEXAS SOMETIME MONDAY. FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE OVER THE STATE. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS A LITTLE HIGHER
DURING THIS PERIOD. WEAK UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...MOST MODELS INDICATE A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS FARTHER EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ARRIVING SOONER THEN THE GFS AND GEM. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS LOW LEVELS ARE STILL RATHER DRY. MAIN IMPACTS OF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS. CURRENT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT MORE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT THEN BECOME QUITE ERRATIC LATER IN THE DAY WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 231627
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1027 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

MUCH OF THE STRATUS/FOG HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH SOME MID-HI LVL MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
WITH A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS A JET STREAK OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME WEAK QG ASCENT ESPECIALLY OVER
FAR EASTERN COLORADO. SURFACE TROF OVER FRONT RANGE WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER FAR EAST COLORADO. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND RESULTANT SURFACE
BASED CAPES FROM 800-1500J/KG. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE FOCUS FOR
ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LESSER CHANCES OF STORMS FURTHER
WEST TOWARDS THE FRONT RANGE WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS. ONGOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL QG ASCENT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MOUNTAINS...PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...THE MDLS MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS. THE MDLS KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH AND JUST SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAINFALL.
NAM12 SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON YIELD CAPES AROUND 800 J/KG. COULD
SEE A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BE A VERY INTENSE ONE. FURTHER EAST...THE MDLS HAVE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 40S. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG...POTENTIALLY
SEVERE...STORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM NEW RAYMER TO FORT
MORGAN TO LIMON. FORECAST CAPES IN THIS REGION IN THE 1200-1500
J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST WINDOW FOR THE STORMS
WILL BE FROM AROUND 22Z TO 03Z...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS COULD BE HAIL TO ONE INCH AND
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL PRODUCE A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE FRIDAY WITH CAPES UP TO
500 J/KG. WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL HELP AND ALSO OVER THE PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE THE
BEST. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE STATE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z SUNDAY AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

BY 12Z SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING THE PACIFIC TROUGH CLOSING OFF JUST
EAST OF LAS VEGAS. OVERALL...MODEL AGREEMENT NOT TOO BAD WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY ENTERING
NORTHERN TEXAS SOMETIME MONDAY. FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE OVER THE STATE. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS A LITTLE HIGHER
DURING THIS PERIOD. WEAK UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...MOST MODELS INDICATE A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS FARTHER EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ARRIVING SOONER THEN THE GFS AND GEM. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS LOW LEVELS ARE STILL RATHER DRY. MAIN IMPACTS OF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS. CURRENT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT MORE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT THEN BECOME QUITE ERRATIC LATER IN THE DAY WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 231627
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1027 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

MUCH OF THE STRATUS/FOG HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH SOME MID-HI LVL MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
WITH A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS A JET STREAK OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME WEAK QG ASCENT ESPECIALLY OVER
FAR EASTERN COLORADO. SURFACE TROF OVER FRONT RANGE WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER FAR EAST COLORADO. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND RESULTANT SURFACE
BASED CAPES FROM 800-1500J/KG. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE FOCUS FOR
ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LESSER CHANCES OF STORMS FURTHER
WEST TOWARDS THE FRONT RANGE WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS. ONGOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL QG ASCENT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MOUNTAINS...PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...THE MDLS MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS. THE MDLS KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH AND JUST SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAINFALL.
NAM12 SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON YIELD CAPES AROUND 800 J/KG. COULD
SEE A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BE A VERY INTENSE ONE. FURTHER EAST...THE MDLS HAVE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 40S. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG...POTENTIALLY
SEVERE...STORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM NEW RAYMER TO FORT
MORGAN TO LIMON. FORECAST CAPES IN THIS REGION IN THE 1200-1500
J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST WINDOW FOR THE STORMS
WILL BE FROM AROUND 22Z TO 03Z...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS COULD BE HAIL TO ONE INCH AND
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL PRODUCE A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE FRIDAY WITH CAPES UP TO
500 J/KG. WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL HELP AND ALSO OVER THE PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE THE
BEST. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE STATE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z SUNDAY AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

BY 12Z SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING THE PACIFIC TROUGH CLOSING OFF JUST
EAST OF LAS VEGAS. OVERALL...MODEL AGREEMENT NOT TOO BAD WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY ENTERING
NORTHERN TEXAS SOMETIME MONDAY. FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE OVER THE STATE. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS A LITTLE HIGHER
DURING THIS PERIOD. WEAK UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...MOST MODELS INDICATE A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS FARTHER EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ARRIVING SOONER THEN THE GFS AND GEM. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS LOW LEVELS ARE STILL RATHER DRY. MAIN IMPACTS OF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS. CURRENT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT MORE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT THEN BECOME QUITE ERRATIC LATER IN THE DAY WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 231627
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1027 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

MUCH OF THE STRATUS/FOG HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH SOME MID-HI LVL MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
WITH A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS A JET STREAK OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME WEAK QG ASCENT ESPECIALLY OVER
FAR EASTERN COLORADO. SURFACE TROF OVER FRONT RANGE WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER FAR EAST COLORADO. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND RESULTANT SURFACE
BASED CAPES FROM 800-1500J/KG. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE FOCUS FOR
ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LESSER CHANCES OF STORMS FURTHER
WEST TOWARDS THE FRONT RANGE WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS. ONGOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL QG ASCENT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MOUNTAINS...PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...THE MDLS MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS. THE MDLS KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH AND JUST SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAINFALL.
NAM12 SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON YIELD CAPES AROUND 800 J/KG. COULD
SEE A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BE A VERY INTENSE ONE. FURTHER EAST...THE MDLS HAVE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 40S. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG...POTENTIALLY
SEVERE...STORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM NEW RAYMER TO FORT
MORGAN TO LIMON. FORECAST CAPES IN THIS REGION IN THE 1200-1500
J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST WINDOW FOR THE STORMS
WILL BE FROM AROUND 22Z TO 03Z...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS COULD BE HAIL TO ONE INCH AND
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL PRODUCE A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE FRIDAY WITH CAPES UP TO
500 J/KG. WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL HELP AND ALSO OVER THE PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE THE
BEST. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE STATE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z SUNDAY AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

BY 12Z SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING THE PACIFIC TROUGH CLOSING OFF JUST
EAST OF LAS VEGAS. OVERALL...MODEL AGREEMENT NOT TOO BAD WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY ENTERING
NORTHERN TEXAS SOMETIME MONDAY. FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE OVER THE STATE. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS A LITTLE HIGHER
DURING THIS PERIOD. WEAK UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...MOST MODELS INDICATE A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS FARTHER EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ARRIVING SOONER THEN THE GFS AND GEM. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS LOW LEVELS ARE STILL RATHER DRY. MAIN IMPACTS OF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS. CURRENT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT MORE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT THEN BECOME QUITE ERRATIC LATER IN THE DAY WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 230915
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
315 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL QG ASCENT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MOUNTAINS...PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...THE MDLS MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS. THE MDLS KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH AND JUST SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAINFALL.
NAM12 SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON YIELD CAPES AROUND 800 J/KG. COULD
SEE A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BE A VERY INTENSE ONE. FURTHER EAST...THE MDLS HAVE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 40S. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG...POTENTIALLY
SEVERE...STORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM NEW RAYMER TO FORT
MORGAN TO LIMON. FORECAST CAPES IN THIS REGION IN THE 1200-1500
J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST WINDOW FOR THE STORMS
WILL BE FROM AROUND 22Z TO 03Z...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS COULD BE HAIL TO ONE INCH AND
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL PRODUCE A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE FRIDAY WITH CAPES UP TO
500 J/KG. WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL HELP AND ALSO OVER THE PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE THE
BEST. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE STATE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z SUNDAY AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

BY 12Z SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING THE PACIFIC TROUGH CLOSING OFF JUST
EAST OF LAS VEGAS. OVERALL...MODEL AGREEMENT NOT TOO BAD WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY ENTERING
NORTHERN TEXAS SOMETIME MONDAY. FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE OVER THE STATE. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS A LITTLE HIGHER
DURING THIS PERIOD. WEAK UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...MOST MODELS INDICATE A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS FARTHER EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ARRIVING SOONER THEN THE GFS AND GEM. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SWLY
SFC WINDS THIS MORNING MAY BECOME MORE ESELY AFTER 15Z...THEN BACK
TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON ONCE OUTFLOW FROM THE DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FOOTHILLS SHIFTS EASTWARD...AFTER 20Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY HIGH BASED AROUND DENVER. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF
DENVER. IF ANY ILS RESTRICTIONS OCCUR IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND IN
THE VICINITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR PRIMARILY WEST/NORTHWEST
SFC WINDS AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.
&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 230915
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
315 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL QG ASCENT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MOUNTAINS...PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...THE MDLS MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS. THE MDLS KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH AND JUST SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAINFALL.
NAM12 SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON YIELD CAPES AROUND 800 J/KG. COULD
SEE A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BE A VERY INTENSE ONE. FURTHER EAST...THE MDLS HAVE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 40S. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG...POTENTIALLY
SEVERE...STORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM NEW RAYMER TO FORT
MORGAN TO LIMON. FORECAST CAPES IN THIS REGION IN THE 1200-1500
J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST WINDOW FOR THE STORMS
WILL BE FROM AROUND 22Z TO 03Z...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS COULD BE HAIL TO ONE INCH AND
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL PRODUCE A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE FRIDAY WITH CAPES UP TO
500 J/KG. WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL HELP AND ALSO OVER THE PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE THE
BEST. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE STATE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z SUNDAY AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

BY 12Z SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING THE PACIFIC TROUGH CLOSING OFF JUST
EAST OF LAS VEGAS. OVERALL...MODEL AGREEMENT NOT TOO BAD WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY ENTERING
NORTHERN TEXAS SOMETIME MONDAY. FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE OVER THE STATE. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS A LITTLE HIGHER
DURING THIS PERIOD. WEAK UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...MOST MODELS INDICATE A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS FARTHER EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ARRIVING SOONER THEN THE GFS AND GEM. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SWLY
SFC WINDS THIS MORNING MAY BECOME MORE ESELY AFTER 15Z...THEN BACK
TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON ONCE OUTFLOW FROM THE DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FOOTHILLS SHIFTS EASTWARD...AFTER 20Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY HIGH BASED AROUND DENVER. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF
DENVER. IF ANY ILS RESTRICTIONS OCCUR IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND IN
THE VICINITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR PRIMARILY WEST/NORTHWEST
SFC WINDS AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.
&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 230915
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
315 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL QG ASCENT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MOUNTAINS...PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...THE MDLS MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS. THE MDLS KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH AND JUST SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAINFALL.
NAM12 SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON YIELD CAPES AROUND 800 J/KG. COULD
SEE A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BE A VERY INTENSE ONE. FURTHER EAST...THE MDLS HAVE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 40S. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG...POTENTIALLY
SEVERE...STORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM NEW RAYMER TO FORT
MORGAN TO LIMON. FORECAST CAPES IN THIS REGION IN THE 1200-1500
J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST WINDOW FOR THE STORMS
WILL BE FROM AROUND 22Z TO 03Z...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS COULD BE HAIL TO ONE INCH AND
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL PRODUCE A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE FRIDAY WITH CAPES UP TO
500 J/KG. WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL HELP AND ALSO OVER THE PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE THE
BEST. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE STATE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z SUNDAY AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

BY 12Z SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING THE PACIFIC TROUGH CLOSING OFF JUST
EAST OF LAS VEGAS. OVERALL...MODEL AGREEMENT NOT TOO BAD WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY ENTERING
NORTHERN TEXAS SOMETIME MONDAY. FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE OVER THE STATE. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS A LITTLE HIGHER
DURING THIS PERIOD. WEAK UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...MOST MODELS INDICATE A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS FARTHER EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ARRIVING SOONER THEN THE GFS AND GEM. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SWLY
SFC WINDS THIS MORNING MAY BECOME MORE ESELY AFTER 15Z...THEN BACK
TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON ONCE OUTFLOW FROM THE DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FOOTHILLS SHIFTS EASTWARD...AFTER 20Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY HIGH BASED AROUND DENVER. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF
DENVER. IF ANY ILS RESTRICTIONS OCCUR IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND IN
THE VICINITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR PRIMARILY WEST/NORTHWEST
SFC WINDS AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.
&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 230333
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
933 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

LAST OF THE EVENING SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY WINDING DOWN. CLOUDS
WILL HANG AROUND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE. ONLY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF THE
EVENING SHOWERS.

TOMORROW AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...BUT MAYBE WITH A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE STATE WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN IT WAS TODAY. BUT
OTHER INGREDIENTS SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OVER PALMER DIVIDE. 88D SHOWING
DECENT CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM ELBERT AND STRETCHING NORTHEAST
THROUGH AROUND WOODROW. ALSO A WEAK BOUNDARY HAS ALSO MOVED OFF
FOOTHILLS AND NOW GETTING READY TO PUSH THROUGH DENVER AREA. THIS
FEATURE MAY SPARK ADDITIONAL STORMS HAS IT COLLIDES WITH THE
FEATURE TO THE EAST. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BUT DEWPOINTS STILL ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SO CAPE
VALUES STILL ONLY UPWARDS OF 800J/KG. STORM PRODUCTION WILL BE
UNDER SEVERE LIMITS. SHOWERS/STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH
AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

FOR THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH
WEAK UPWARDS ASCENT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SURFACE TROF
STILL OVER EASTERN PLAINS WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVER FAR PLAINS. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
THIS FLOW SO DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
40S. RESULTANT SURFACE BASED CAPES FROM 1000-1500J/KG SO THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

THETA E RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LAID ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS
THURSDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OVERHEAD. THIS
COMBINED WITH CAPES OF 700 TO 1000 J/KG WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING...DECREASING TOWARD
MIDNIGHT. AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM GREELEY TO LIMON MAY SEE A FEW
SEVERE STRENGTH STORMS EARLY EVENING.

EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE CO/KS BORDER AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WILL PASS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS
OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM....EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AND MOVE TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ALOFT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL LIMIT CONVECTION BUT THEN
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY FOR COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER AS UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS TO LIKELY
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS GOOD CONSENSUS EXISTS BETWEEN THE
GFS...ECMWF AND GEM. OVERALL...MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT LEAST FOR WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 933 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

OUTFLOW WINDS FROM SHOWERS OVER THE FOOTHILLS HAVE THE WINDS AT
AIRPORTS BLOWING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. DRAINAGE SOUTHERLIES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SIMILAR METEOROLOGICAL SET-UP TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TODAY ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE OVER THE STATE. DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DE-STABILIZE THE AIRMASS...PRODUCING
MODEST RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 230333
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
933 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

LAST OF THE EVENING SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY WINDING DOWN. CLOUDS
WILL HANG AROUND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE. ONLY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF THE
EVENING SHOWERS.

TOMORROW AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...BUT MAYBE WITH A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE STATE WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN IT WAS TODAY. BUT
OTHER INGREDIENTS SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OVER PALMER DIVIDE. 88D SHOWING
DECENT CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM ELBERT AND STRETCHING NORTHEAST
THROUGH AROUND WOODROW. ALSO A WEAK BOUNDARY HAS ALSO MOVED OFF
FOOTHILLS AND NOW GETTING READY TO PUSH THROUGH DENVER AREA. THIS
FEATURE MAY SPARK ADDITIONAL STORMS HAS IT COLLIDES WITH THE
FEATURE TO THE EAST. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BUT DEWPOINTS STILL ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SO CAPE
VALUES STILL ONLY UPWARDS OF 800J/KG. STORM PRODUCTION WILL BE
UNDER SEVERE LIMITS. SHOWERS/STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH
AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

FOR THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH
WEAK UPWARDS ASCENT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SURFACE TROF
STILL OVER EASTERN PLAINS WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVER FAR PLAINS. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
THIS FLOW SO DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
40S. RESULTANT SURFACE BASED CAPES FROM 1000-1500J/KG SO THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

THETA E RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LAID ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS
THURSDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OVERHEAD. THIS
COMBINED WITH CAPES OF 700 TO 1000 J/KG WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING...DECREASING TOWARD
MIDNIGHT. AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM GREELEY TO LIMON MAY SEE A FEW
SEVERE STRENGTH STORMS EARLY EVENING.

EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE CO/KS BORDER AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WILL PASS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS
OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM....EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AND MOVE TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ALOFT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL LIMIT CONVECTION BUT THEN
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY FOR COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER AS UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS TO LIKELY
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS GOOD CONSENSUS EXISTS BETWEEN THE
GFS...ECMWF AND GEM. OVERALL...MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT LEAST FOR WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 933 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

OUTFLOW WINDS FROM SHOWERS OVER THE FOOTHILLS HAVE THE WINDS AT
AIRPORTS BLOWING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. DRAINAGE SOUTHERLIES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SIMILAR METEOROLOGICAL SET-UP TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TODAY ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE OVER THE STATE. DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DE-STABILIZE THE AIRMASS...PRODUCING
MODEST RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...DANKERS





000
FXUS65 KBOU 230333
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
933 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

LAST OF THE EVENING SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY WINDING DOWN. CLOUDS
WILL HANG AROUND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE. ONLY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF THE
EVENING SHOWERS.

TOMORROW AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...BUT MAYBE WITH A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE STATE WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN IT WAS TODAY. BUT
OTHER INGREDIENTS SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OVER PALMER DIVIDE. 88D SHOWING
DECENT CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM ELBERT AND STRETCHING NORTHEAST
THROUGH AROUND WOODROW. ALSO A WEAK BOUNDARY HAS ALSO MOVED OFF
FOOTHILLS AND NOW GETTING READY TO PUSH THROUGH DENVER AREA. THIS
FEATURE MAY SPARK ADDITIONAL STORMS HAS IT COLLIDES WITH THE
FEATURE TO THE EAST. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BUT DEWPOINTS STILL ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SO CAPE
VALUES STILL ONLY UPWARDS OF 800J/KG. STORM PRODUCTION WILL BE
UNDER SEVERE LIMITS. SHOWERS/STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH
AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

FOR THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH
WEAK UPWARDS ASCENT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SURFACE TROF
STILL OVER EASTERN PLAINS WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVER FAR PLAINS. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
THIS FLOW SO DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
40S. RESULTANT SURFACE BASED CAPES FROM 1000-1500J/KG SO THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

THETA E RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LAID ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS
THURSDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OVERHEAD. THIS
COMBINED WITH CAPES OF 700 TO 1000 J/KG WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING...DECREASING TOWARD
MIDNIGHT. AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM GREELEY TO LIMON MAY SEE A FEW
SEVERE STRENGTH STORMS EARLY EVENING.

EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE CO/KS BORDER AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WILL PASS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS
OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM....EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AND MOVE TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ALOFT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL LIMIT CONVECTION BUT THEN
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY FOR COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER AS UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS TO LIKELY
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS GOOD CONSENSUS EXISTS BETWEEN THE
GFS...ECMWF AND GEM. OVERALL...MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT LEAST FOR WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 933 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

OUTFLOW WINDS FROM SHOWERS OVER THE FOOTHILLS HAVE THE WINDS AT
AIRPORTS BLOWING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. DRAINAGE SOUTHERLIES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SIMILAR METEOROLOGICAL SET-UP TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TODAY ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE OVER THE STATE. DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DE-STABILIZE THE AIRMASS...PRODUCING
MODEST RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...DANKERS





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