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000
FXUS65 KBOU 251733
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1133 AM MDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016

With the remaining stratus layer and higher dewpoints over
Washington, Lincoln, Morgan and eastern Adams and Arapahoe
counties, and with several recent runs of hi-res models showing
convection over the aforementioned area, have gone ahead and added
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Otherwise, ongoing forecast still looks good.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016

Upper level low off the California coast will move over southern
California today. The low will continue to move eastward and be
over Arizona tonight. Ahead of this, a southwest flow aloft will
continue over Colorado. A weak ridge will move across the state
today. This will bring subsidence and drier air. Temperatures will
be warmer today with highs in the 70s across northeast Colorado.
There will be just a slight chance for thunderstorms over far
northern Colorado today. Best chance for convection will be north
of the state. A front will push into the area tonight. This will
help to replenish low level moisture. Can`t rule out a stray storm
or two tonight over the eastern plains, so will have low pops in
the forecast for this.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016

Overall trend on track with the next system moving out of the
southwest and across Colorado Thursday into Friday. On Thursday
the system is progged to move from north central AZ at 12z Thu and
into south central CO by 12z Friday, Timing is a little slower
which may increase the potential for strong/severe tstms over the
northeast plains in the aftn, NAM12 forecast soundings show
healthy amounts of CAPE...anywhere fm 1000-2000 j/kg. The best
chance would appear to be over east central CO...south of
interstate 76. Moderate mid and upper level QG ascent is now
progged to move across the cwa in the aftn.  Good directional
shear for tstms to produce large hail...damaging winds and a
tornado or two. The timing of this trough is a little slower which
keeps the region under the warm and more unstable regime. The
system is progged to move into Nebraska and Kansas with more of a
west/northwesterly flow over the area with increasing downward qg
dvlpg over the area by Friday aftn. Good coverage for pcpn on
Friday with less tstm coverage. The trend for the weekend into
early next week still looks okay. Warmer and a little drier...with
a persistent chance of thunderstorms each aftn/evng...with highs
closer to normal by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday)
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016

Weak high pressure will move across the area today, bringing drier
conditions. Mid and upper level clouds will increase this
afternoon and evening. Storms are expected to stay north and east
of the Denver area, although a stray storm could form over the
foothills north of I70 and track northeast. Winds continue to be
tricky today. Most models are showing easterly winds over the
Denver area trending to the northeast, with several going
variable...perhaps due to some outflow from nearby storms. Earlier
thought of a cold front pushing into the area tonight bringing
northeast winds behind it seems to have backed off...with drainage
winds occurring. Have trended TAFs to this with several showing
the drainage direction. Then expecting the more northeasterly push
to come tomorrow morning with lowering ceilings and showers
possible over the foothills and Palmer Divide.


&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Kriederman





000
FXUS65 KBOU 241650
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1050 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Slightly more moisture is currently being observed across the
eastern plains than forecast at this time. With good southeasterly
flow, this moisture is expected to continue to advect toward the
front range urban corridor late this morning. Cumulus clouds on
webcams are already experiencing growth and latest hi-res models
are starting to fire convection off by 19z around the Denver
area. Forecast soundings are showing excellent shear with CAPEs in
the 2400-3500 J/kg over the area from Denver north and east to
Wyoming/Nebraska/Kansas borders. Will continue to expect scattered
to numerous thunderstorms to push northeast today with isolated to
scattered severe storms possible. Main threats will be large hail,
strong damaging outflow winds and lightning, but tornados will be
possible as well. Timing of the severe weather potential will
remain around 2-5pm for the urban corridor (mainly Denver and
north) and 3-9pm for the northeastern plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Southwest flow aloft will prevail around an upper level trough
over California. A weak short wave trough embedded in the flow
aloft and a surface low will move across the state today.
Southerly flow around the low will bring drier air to southern
Colorado while southeast to east winds farther north will
transport moisture into northeast Colorado. Expect an east/west
boundary/dry line to set up this afternoon. The southerly flow
will also likely cause a Denver Cyclone to form. As the airmass
moistens...low clouds are expected to spread across parts of
northeast Colorado early this morning. They may be slow to burn
off and thus lowered highs a few degrees, especially across
northern parts of northeast Colorado.

The HiRes models are in general agreement that convection will
initiate over/near the Denver metro area 2-3pm. Likely due to
convergence along the Denver Cyclone and the east/west boundary.
Storms will spread northeast through afternoon and evening hours.
Greatest threat for severe thunderstorms will be northeast of the
Denver area where CAPES will be 1000-2500 J/kg. Main threat will
be large hail. Damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will also
be possible.

Drier air will spread across northeast Colorado overnight.
Convection is expected to exit the area by midnight and by
Wednesday morning mostly clear skies will prevail.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

On Wednesday...the upper level trough will remain to the west with
a dry southwesterly flow aloft over north central and northeast
CO. The models show weak subsidence over the cwa through the day
...with the best low level moisture flushed out to the east into
western NE and northwestern KS. The models generate some QPF in
the aftn but it is mainly over the mountains. Wednesday night...
...a little surge is progged to push into the northeast corner of
CO. This boundary could act as a focus for nocturnal tstms around
06Z Wednesday night. Thursday through Friday...it will be cooler
and wetter across the cwa. The models have the next system near
the Four Corners region by 18z Thursday then move into western
NE/KS by Friday evening. As a result...there appears to be a
prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall over the region. The
models all show moderate QG ascent over the cwa Thursday
aftn/evng...with decreasing QG ascent late Thursday night and
Friday as the trough starts to shift to the east of CO. Highest
pops will be Thursday night...but still a good chance of showers
especially from the Front Range Foothills eastward on Friday.
There is a marginal threat for severe thunderstorms closer to the
KS border on Thursday aftn. It will also be a little cooler and
this may help to minimize the threat of severe thunderstorms. Over
the weekend...a drier westerly flow aloft will be over the state
on Saturday. It will be warmer with enough moisture around to keep
a slight chance of aftn/evng thunderstorms both days. By Sunday...
another trough in the Pacific Northwest will produce a southwesterly
flow aloft over CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Southeast winds will continue to produce scattered low clouds of
3000-5000 ft across eastern Colorado for the next hour or two.
Scattered thunderstorms are then expected to form after 19z. The
best chance for thunderstorms in the Denver area will be 19-23Z.
Wind gusts to 40 knots, hail, and heavy rain will be possible with
the thunderstorms. Drier air will move into the area after 00z and
bring mostly clear skies by 06z.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Kriederman





000
FXUS65 KBOU 240920
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
320 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Southwest flow aloft will prevail around an upper level trough
over California. A weak short wave trough embedded in the flow
aloft and a surface low will move across the state today.
Southerly flow around the low will bring drier air to southern
Colorado while southeast to east winds farther north will
transport moisture into northeast Colorado. Expect an east/west
boundary/dry line to set up this afternoon. The southerly flow
will also likely cause a Denver Cyclone to form. As the airmass
moistens...low clouds are expected to spread across parts of
northeast Colorado early this morning. They may be slow to burn
off and thus lowered highs a few degrees, especially across
northern parts of northeast Colorado.

The HiRes models are in general agreement that convection will
initiate over/near the Denver metro area 2-3pm. Likely due to
convergence along the Denver Cyclone and the east/west boundary.
Storms will spread northeast through afternoon and evening hours.
Greatest threat for severe thunderstorms will be northeast of the
Denver area where CAPES will be 1000-2500 J/kg. Main threat will
be large hail. Damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will also
be possible.

Drier air will spread across northeast Colorado overnight.
Convection is expected to exit the area by midnight and by
Wednesday morning mostly clear skies will prevail.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

On Wednesday...the upper level trough will remain to the west with
a dry southwesterly flow aloft over north central and northeast
CO. The models show weak subsidence over the cwa through the day
...with the best low level moisture flushed out to the east into
western NE and northwestern KS. The models generate some QPF in
the aftn but it is mainly over the mountains. Wednesday night...
...a little surge is progged to push into the northeast corner of
CO. This boundary could act as a focus for nocturnal tstms around
06Z Wednesday night. Thursday through Friday...it will be cooler
and wetter across the cwa. The models have the next system near
the Four Corners region by 18z Thursday then move into western
NE/KS by Friday evening. As a result...there appears to be a
prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall over the region. The
models all show moderate QG ascent over the cwa Thursday
aftn/evng...with decreasing QG ascent late Thursday night and
Friday as the trough starts to shift to the east of CO. Highest
pops will be Thursday night...but still a good chance of showers
especially from the Front Range Foothills eastward on Friday.
There is a marginal threat for severe thunderstorms closer to the
KS border on Thursday aftn. It will also be a little cooler and
this may help to minimize the threat of severe thunderstorms. Over
the weekend...a drier westerly flow aloft will be over the state
on Saturday. It will be warmer with enough moisture around to keep
a slight chance of aftn/evng thunderstorms both days. By Sunday...
another trough in the Pacific Northwest will produce a southwesterly
flow aloft over CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Southeast winds will increase low level moisture and is expected
to produce low clouds across eastern Colorado. Ceilings of 1000 to
3000 feet are expected at the Denver airports from 11 to 15z, low
clouds may linger through the late morning, until 18z. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form after 20z. The best chance for
thunderstorms in the Denver area will be 20-23Z. Wind gusts to 40
knots, hail, and heavy rain will be possible with the
thunderstorms. Drier air will move into the area after 00z and
bring mostly clear skies by 06z.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Meier





000
FXUS65 KBOU 232105
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
305 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

A jet max that pushed into southwestern Colorado earlier today
continues to push northeast, firing off convection over the
forecast area this afternoon. A shortwave ridge will be pushing
overhead tonight, however convection will spread northeast for
the rest of the afternoon and evening as a theta-e ridge advects
into the area from the south. The chance of showers and
thunderstorms will mainly confine itself overnight over the far
northeastern corner of the state. Skies will be clearing overnight
with winds becoming light, but at this time am not expecting any
fog to form. Minimum temperatures will be right around average
for this time of year.

More thunderstorms are expected Tuesday as a fast moving shortwave
ejected from an upper trough over California pushes over the area.
At the same time, a surface low should push into central Colorado,
with southeasterly surface winds helping to advect in higher
theta-e values. CAPE values between 1000-3300 J/kg are progged,
with the highest values over the far northern to northeastern
plains. Shear and instability is enough to prompt SPC to cover the
northeastern plains with an Enhanced Risk of severe storms. Large
hail and strong damaging winds are likely from the stronger
storms, but cannot rule out a tornado forming with good turning in
the winds from the surface upwards. Temperatures will warm about 5
to 10 degrees over todays readings.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Models continue to indicate the passage of a couple of weak mid-
level instability axes/shortwave troughs over the forecast area
during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday and Wednesday. The
stronger of these disturbances appears to pass over the area late
on Tuesday impacting mainly the northeast corner of the CWA
during the evening. Could see t-storms forming along a wind
shift/dry line which slowly translates northeast with the
shortwave during the evening. Best sfc based capes and instability
east of this boundary where gusty sely sfc winds continue to
advect in lower 60s wetbulb temps. A few storms may produce hail...
stg gusty winds and brief moderate to heavy rainfall rates. Cannot
rule out a severe storm east of a Briggsdale-to-Akron line. The
late Wednesday disturbance being carried along by strengthening
swly flow aloft appears weaker and not as moist. Yet may still see
isolated to widely scattered showers and t-storms produce gusty
winds and light to moderate rainfall over and along the Front
Range during the late afternoon and evening hours.

During the Thursday-Friday time period...the poorly organized long
wave upper trough over the Great Basin is still progged to migrate
eastward across the Rocky Mountain region during this period.
Models now in better agreement as they all show this open wave
trough bringing cooler air and a decent amount of moisture to the
state. Should see an increase in shower and t-storm coverage
both days. Thursday afternoon and evening appears to be the
optimum time for shower and t-storm development along and east of
the Front Range with the upper low passing to south and a moist post-
frontal low-level upslope flow on the plains. CAPES off interactive
soundings not terribly great due largely to cooler temps and
increasing cloud cover. However cannot rule out a couple of t-storms
producing locally heavy rainfall and hail. By Friday...models
show the CWA on the back side of the upper trough...but a weak
upr air disturbance swinging out of the nrn Colorado mtns and srn
Wyoming during the afternoon could generate additional showers and
perhaps a few t-storms. Although their intensity should not be
not as great as the day before. Temps Thursday and Friday expected
to drop 10 deg f or so from those on Wednesday.

Saturday through Monday...trough moves east and washes out over
the northern Great Basins placing the fcst area under a gentle
near zonal flow aloft on Saturday. Sunday and Monday the area
comes under the influence of a warmer south-southwesterly flow
with just a slight chance of heat driven afternoon and evening
t-storms each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms across the Denver area airports will last through
about 00z before the main activity pushes east over the plains.
Wind gusts to 30 knots and brief heavy rain are possible with the
storms over the urban corridor...with stronger winds and small
hail possible over the eastern plains. Easterly winds at 15 to 25
knots will become variable with the convection, then trend
northeasterly early this evening before trending toward light drainage
tonight. At this time, no widespread fog is expected, however
there could be some patchy areas along the South Platte River
valley. More convective activity is expected tomorrow, especially
over the far northeastern plains where strong winds and hail are
expected.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Kriederman





000
FXUS65 KBOU 231944
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
144 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1029 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Convective clouds are increasing evidenced on satellite and
webcams across western and north-central Colorado this morning as
a jet max pushes into the western part of the state. Hi-res models
continue to initiate convection over Clear Creek and Gilpin
counties just before noon with it then spreading over the metro
areas early afternoon. No impressive CAPE values until later this
afternoon and evening over the eastern plains...and even
overnight. May see a few stronger storms out that way later on.
This is all covered with the current forecast...no need to adjust
much at this point.

Focus will be shifting to tomorrow afternoon`s convective
potential across the plains. CAPE values will be much higher,
between 1000 and as much as 3300 J/kg with good shear as well.
NWS SPC has the forecast area in a SLIGHT to ENHANCED risk for
severe storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Still a few showers going on the tail of a jet streak that moved
across overnight. These should continue to slowly fade as they
drift northeast over the next few hours. Weather maker for today
is a stronger jet max that will lift from northern Arizona
northeast across the state today. This is generating banded high
clouds over the dry air in Utah now, and will bring lift to
northeastern Colorado as it passes this afternoon. The convective
environment today is not that great otherwise, with slightly
cooler temps and dew points in the 30s and 40s. Models all show
some convection with the jet streak, and it is probably enough to
overcome the weak capping, especially given a little bit of
easterly low level wind to aid convergence once storms get
started. It could wind up being a fairly early show, perhaps early
afternoon storms over the mountains and Denver, then toward the
eastern border by evening. Nice shear but not much CAPE, we will
be hard pressed to get more than about 800 j/kg. So maybe more
coverage of the storms but not a lot of strength. With the shear
there could be a low threat of marginal wind/hail over the
eastern portion of the plains, especially if the storms get
organized which they well could.

Clouds and showers should diminish quickly this evening. Prefer
the cooler GFS guidance which was a couple degrees cooler than our
previous forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

For Tue and Wed...a relatively dry southwesterly flow aloft will
remain over Colorado ahead of an elongated upper trough over the
west...stretching frm central CA to MT Tue aftn. The southern
branch of the trough will make its way into southern NV by 00Z
Thu. The general trend both days will be for some tstms over the
mountains. a Denver cyclone Tue aftn will generate a boundary
that will act as a focus for tstms late Tue aftn/evng. best chc of
storm possibly severe will occur along and east of this boundary.
The NAM12 mdl shows the development of this pattern with the
strongest storms develping over central Weld County and lifting
to the northeast...which seems reasonable. Boundary layer CAPE
1000-2000 j/kg in this area...but some CIN as well. The NAM12
however shows a weak upper level disturbance which may help to
initiate tstms as it move across western and northern CO around
00Z Wed. On Wednesday...the flow will be more south/southwesterly
with more mid level subsidence under a short wave ridge. Sfc based
CAPE much lower so weaker tstms with lesser coverage as well. Thu
through Fri...the mdls still show the upper low approaching the
Four Corners region by 12z Thu...then lifting east/northeast
across CO. Best QG ascent in the mid levels will occur late
aftn/evng period which will help to produce a better chc of
showers/tstms over the entire cwa. A little cooler as well. the
GFS is about 6 hrs faster than the ECMWF regarding the passage of
the trough. By the weekend...the flow aloft drier and more
west/southwesterly. still tstms in the grids each aftn/evng but
mainly slgt chc pops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR conditions expected through Tuesday afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms across the Denver area airports will last through
about 00z before the main activity pushes east over the plains. Wind
gusts to 30 knots and brief heavy rain are possible with the
storms over the urban corridor...with stronger winds and small
hail possible over the eastern plains. Easterly winds at 15 to 25
knots will become variable with the convection, then trend
northeasterly early this evening before trending toward drainage
tonight. More convective activity is expected tomorrow, especially
over the far northeastern plains where strong winds and hail are
expected.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Kriederman





000
FXUS65 KBOU 231629
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1029 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1029 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Convective clouds are increasing evidenced on satellite and
webcams across western and north-central Colorado this morning as
a jet max pushes into the western part of the state. Hi-res models
continue to initiate convection over Clear Creek and Gilpin
counties just before noon with it then spreading over the metro
areas early afternoon. No impressive CAPE values until later this
afternoon and evening over the eastern plains...and even
overnight. May see a few stronger storms out that way later on.
This is all covered with the current forecast...no need to adjust
much at this point.

Focus will be shifting to tomorrow afternoon`s convective
potential across the plains. CAPE values will be much higher,
between 1000 and as much as 3300 J/kg with good shear as well.
NWS SPC has the forecast area in a SLIGHT to ENHANCED risk for
severe storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Still a few showers going on the tail of a jet streak that moved
across overnight. These should continue to slowly fade as they
drift northeast over the next few hours. Weather maker for today
is a stronger jet max that will lift from northern Arizona
northeast across the state today. This is generating banded high
clouds over the dry air in Utah now, and will bring lift to
northeastern Colorado as it passes this afternoon. The convective
environment today is not that great otherwise, with slightly
cooler temps and dew points in the 30s and 40s. Models all show
some convection with the jet streak, and it is probably enough to
overcome the weak capping, especially given a little bit of
easterly low level wind to aid convergence once storms get
started. It could wind up being a fairly early show, perhaps early
afternoon storms over the mountains and Denver, then toward the
eastern border by evening. Nice shear but not much CAPE, we will
be hard pressed to get more than about 800 j/kg. So maybe more
coverage of the storms but not a lot of strength. With the shear
there could be a low threat of marginal wind/hail over the
eastern portion of the plains, especially if the storms get
organized which they well could.

Clouds and showers should diminish quickly this evening. Prefer
the cooler GFS guidance which was a couple degrees cooler than our
previous forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

For Tue and Wed...a relatively dry southwesterly flow aloft will
remain over Colorado ahead of an elongated upper trough over the
west...stretching frm central CA to MT Tue aftn. The southern
branch of the trough will make its way into southern NV by 00Z
Thu. The general trend both days will be for some tstms over the
mountains. a Denver cyclone Tue aftn will generate a boundary
that will act as a focus for tstms late Tue aftn/evng. best chc of
storm possibly severe will occur along and east of this boundary.
The NAM12 mdl shows the development of this pattern with the
strongest storms develping over central Weld County and lifting
to the northeast...which seems reasonable. Boundary layer CAPE
1000-2000 j/kg in this area...but some CIN as well. The NAM12
however shows a weak upper level disturbance which may help to
initiate tstms as it move across western and northern CO around
00Z Wed. On Wednesday...the flow will be more south/southwesterly
with more mid level subsidence under a short wave ridge. Sfc based
CAPE much lower so weaker tstms with lesser coverage as well. Thu
through Fri...the mdls still show the upper low approaching the
Four Corners region by 12z Thu...then lifting east/northeast
across CO. Best QG ascent in the mid levels will occur late
aftn/evng period which will help to produce a better chc of
showers/tstms over the entire cwa. A little cooler as well. the
GFS is about 6 hrs faster than the ECMWF regarding the passage of
the trough. By the weekend...the flow aloft drier and more
west/southwesterly. still tstms in the grids each aftn/evng but
mainly slgt chc pops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR through tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon, with the main threat between 20z and 00z. Wind gusts to
40 knots and brief heavy rain are possible with the storms.


&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Gimmestad





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