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000
FXUS65 KBOU 281658
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
958 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AGAIN BRING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS
TODAY. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS ARE SEEING WIND GUSTS TO
70 MPH THIS MORNING. THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THE MOUNTAIN WAVE WILL
DECREASE AROUND 18Z. EXPECT WINDS TO SLOW UP SOME WITH GUSTS
DROPPING TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THESE WIND PRONE AREAS.

WATER VAPOR SHOWING MOISTURE AT THE UPPER PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WEST OF COLORADO TO THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL KEEP WAVE CLOUDS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. IF SKIES CONTINUE TO
REMAIN NEARLY OVERCAST ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE RGN THRU TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME
WAVE CLOUDS. SIMULATED IMAGERY SUGGESTS HI LVL CLOUD COVER THRU
THE DAY SO ITS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON
HIGHS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NR 70 AROUND
DENVER WITH 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. IF CLOUD COVER THINS OUT THEN
RECORD HIGH OF 72 AT DENVER COULD BE TIED. AREAS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY FM FORT MORGAN TO STERLING MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. AS FOR WINDS MTN TOP
INVERSION IS RATHER WK THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT SO APPEARS THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL STAY ABV TIMBERLINE WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 60
TO 70 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COVER THE FORECAST AREA
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MID DAY SUNDAY. UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY IS
PROGGED FOR THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLIES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FORM OF EASTERLY COMPONENT IS PROGGED
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE HIGHEST
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO COME SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WAVE SET
UP LOOKS THE STRONGEST THAN. NO HIGHLIGHTS. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS
SPARSE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AN INCREASE FOR THE
WESTERN CWA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT A LOT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THERE
IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS
WITH THE UPSLOPE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE IS BEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...FAIRLY DEEP IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW A TAD OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHERN BORDER AREAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL GO WITH SOME MINOR POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...THAT`S IT. SATURDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE 1-2 C COOLER
THAN THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGHS. ON SUNDAY...READINGS COOL DOWN SOME
10-20 C FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR THE LATER DAY`S...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH ONE
ANOTHER. THERE IS ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY...THEN SOME UPPER RIDGING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF HAVING WEAK UPPER RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...
THEY BOTH HAVE WEAK UPPER RIDGING. OVERALL THEY AGREE A BIT BETTER
THAN YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS. THE GFS HAS MORE MOISTURE. WILL HAVE
SOME MINOR ALPINE POPS HERE AND THERE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 958 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGHS
CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWEST TO
WEST AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL RETURN SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 281658
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
958 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AGAIN BRING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS
TODAY. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS ARE SEEING WIND GUSTS TO
70 MPH THIS MORNING. THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THE MOUNTAIN WAVE WILL
DECREASE AROUND 18Z. EXPECT WINDS TO SLOW UP SOME WITH GUSTS
DROPPING TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THESE WIND PRONE AREAS.

WATER VAPOR SHOWING MOISTURE AT THE UPPER PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WEST OF COLORADO TO THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL KEEP WAVE CLOUDS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. IF SKIES CONTINUE TO
REMAIN NEARLY OVERCAST ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE RGN THRU TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME
WAVE CLOUDS. SIMULATED IMAGERY SUGGESTS HI LVL CLOUD COVER THRU
THE DAY SO ITS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON
HIGHS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NR 70 AROUND
DENVER WITH 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. IF CLOUD COVER THINS OUT THEN
RECORD HIGH OF 72 AT DENVER COULD BE TIED. AREAS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY FM FORT MORGAN TO STERLING MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. AS FOR WINDS MTN TOP
INVERSION IS RATHER WK THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT SO APPEARS THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL STAY ABV TIMBERLINE WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 60
TO 70 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COVER THE FORECAST AREA
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MID DAY SUNDAY. UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY IS
PROGGED FOR THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLIES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FORM OF EASTERLY COMPONENT IS PROGGED
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE HIGHEST
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO COME SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WAVE SET
UP LOOKS THE STRONGEST THAN. NO HIGHLIGHTS. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS
SPARSE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AN INCREASE FOR THE
WESTERN CWA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT A LOT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THERE
IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS
WITH THE UPSLOPE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE IS BEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...FAIRLY DEEP IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW A TAD OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHERN BORDER AREAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL GO WITH SOME MINOR POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...THAT`S IT. SATURDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE 1-2 C COOLER
THAN THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGHS. ON SUNDAY...READINGS COOL DOWN SOME
10-20 C FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR THE LATER DAY`S...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH ONE
ANOTHER. THERE IS ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY...THEN SOME UPPER RIDGING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF HAVING WEAK UPPER RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...
THEY BOTH HAVE WEAK UPPER RIDGING. OVERALL THEY AGREE A BIT BETTER
THAN YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS. THE GFS HAS MORE MOISTURE. WILL HAVE
SOME MINOR ALPINE POPS HERE AND THERE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 958 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGHS
CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWEST TO
WEST AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL RETURN SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 281128
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
428 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE RGN THRU TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME
WAVE CLOUDS. SIMULATED IMAGERY SUGGESTS HI LVL CLOUD COVER THRU
THE DAY SO ITS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON
HIGHS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NR 70 AROUND
DENVER WITH 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. IF CLOUD COVER THINS OUT THEN
RECORD HIGH OF 72 AT DENVER COULD BE TIED. AREAS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY FM FORT MORGAN TO STERLING MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. AS FOR WINDS MTN TOP
INVERSION IS RATHER WK THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT SO APPEARS THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL STAY ABV TIMBERLINE WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 60
TO 70 MPH RANGE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COVER THE FORECAST AREA
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MID DAY SUNDAY. UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY IS
PROGGED FOR THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLIES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FORM OF EASTERLY COMPONENT IS PROGGED
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE HIGHEST
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO COME SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WAVE SET
UP LOOKS THE STRONGEST THAN. NO HIGHLIGHTS. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS
SPARSE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AN INCREASE FOR THE
WESTERN CWA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT A LOT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THERE
IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS
WITH THE UPSLOPE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE IS BEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...FAIRLY DEEP IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW A TAD OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHERN BORDER AREAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL GO WITH SOME MINOR POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...THAT`S IT. SATURDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE 1-2 C COOLER
THAN THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGHS. ON SUNDAY...READINGS COOL DOWN SOME
10-20 C FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR THE LATER DAY`S...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH ONE
ANOTHER. THERE IS ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY...THEN SOME UPPER RIDGING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF HAVING WEAK UPPER RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...
THEY BOTH HAVE WEAK UPPER RIDGING. OVERALL THEY AGREE A BIT BETTER
THAN YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS. THE GFS HAS MORE MOISTURE. WILL HAVE
SOME MINOR ALPINE POPS HERE AND THERE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

OUTSIDE OF SOME UPPER LVL CLOUD COVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  AS FOR WINDS THEY HAVE BEEN RANGING FM SLY TO
WLY THE LAST FEW HOURS SO WILL KEEP THEM SSW THRU THE MORNING HOURS.
BY EARLY AFTN THE RAP AND HRR INDICATE THEY MAY BRIEFLY BECOME WLY
FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO MORE SSW BY LATE AFTN.  FOR
TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE DRAINAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 281128
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
428 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE RGN THRU TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME
WAVE CLOUDS. SIMULATED IMAGERY SUGGESTS HI LVL CLOUD COVER THRU
THE DAY SO ITS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON
HIGHS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NR 70 AROUND
DENVER WITH 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. IF CLOUD COVER THINS OUT THEN
RECORD HIGH OF 72 AT DENVER COULD BE TIED. AREAS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY FM FORT MORGAN TO STERLING MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. AS FOR WINDS MTN TOP
INVERSION IS RATHER WK THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT SO APPEARS THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL STAY ABV TIMBERLINE WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 60
TO 70 MPH RANGE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COVER THE FORECAST AREA
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MID DAY SUNDAY. UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY IS
PROGGED FOR THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLIES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FORM OF EASTERLY COMPONENT IS PROGGED
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE HIGHEST
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO COME SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WAVE SET
UP LOOKS THE STRONGEST THAN. NO HIGHLIGHTS. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS
SPARSE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AN INCREASE FOR THE
WESTERN CWA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT A LOT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THERE
IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS
WITH THE UPSLOPE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE IS BEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...FAIRLY DEEP IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW A TAD OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHERN BORDER AREAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL GO WITH SOME MINOR POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...THAT`S IT. SATURDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE 1-2 C COOLER
THAN THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGHS. ON SUNDAY...READINGS COOL DOWN SOME
10-20 C FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR THE LATER DAY`S...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH ONE
ANOTHER. THERE IS ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY...THEN SOME UPPER RIDGING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF HAVING WEAK UPPER RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...
THEY BOTH HAVE WEAK UPPER RIDGING. OVERALL THEY AGREE A BIT BETTER
THAN YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS. THE GFS HAS MORE MOISTURE. WILL HAVE
SOME MINOR ALPINE POPS HERE AND THERE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

OUTSIDE OF SOME UPPER LVL CLOUD COVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  AS FOR WINDS THEY HAVE BEEN RANGING FM SLY TO
WLY THE LAST FEW HOURS SO WILL KEEP THEM SSW THRU THE MORNING HOURS.
BY EARLY AFTN THE RAP AND HRR INDICATE THEY MAY BRIEFLY BECOME WLY
FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO MORE SSW BY LATE AFTN.  FOR
TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE DRAINAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 280317
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
817 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

PACIFIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER COLORADO UNDER A WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MANY AREAS. ON FRIDAY...AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER...SO COULD SEE A FEW LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
WAVE CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOWING
WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. APPEARS THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
STAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

BROAD BELT OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION WOULD SUPPORT
ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE PLAINS AND MOSTLY 40S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY PROGGED BY
THE MODELS LOOK REASONABLY SOUND. ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN WAVE
CLOUDINESS EAST OF THE MTNS COULD CERTAINLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES
DEPENDING ON THEIR THICKNESS...BUT FOR NOW WILL COUNT ON THE
ENHANCED W-SWLY FLOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE TO WARM THINGS UP ACROSS
THE PLAINS. SPEAKING OF WINDS...A MUCH BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE
STRONG AND GUSTY WLY WINDS DEVELOPING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY. BY AFTERNOON COULD SEE GUSTS APPROACHING
70 MPH ON THE HIGH RIDGES AND PEAKS ON THE FRONT RANGE...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 50 MPH IN THE FOOTHILLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FLOW ALOFT
EASES SOME ON SUNDAY AND MORE SO MONDAY AS IT BACKS TO MORE OF A
SWLY COMPONENT IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THIS SWLY FLOW MODELS SHOW A RIBBON OF
MOIST PACIFIC AIR DARTING EWRD OVER NWRN COLORADO BY SUN MORNING.
AS A RESULT COULD SEE THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING IN THE
PARK AND GORE RANGES THRU THE DAY. HOWEVER MODEL QPF AND SNOW ACCUM
AMOUNTS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER EAST
OF THE MTNS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT UP OVER ERN WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA IS FCST TO DROP INTO NERN COLORADO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY BACK UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF THE
DENVER BY MIDDAY OF SUNDAY. AS IT LOOKS NOW...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
REACHED BEFORE 15Z ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE I-
25 URBAN CORRIDOR AROUND MIDDAY...IF NOT SOONER OVER NRN SECTIONS.
AIR BACKING IN LOOKS DRY...SO NO PCPN AND NOT MUCH LOWER CLOUD
COVER. ONCE THIS COOL AIRMASS BACKS INTO THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD SEE
THE STG AND GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS SHUTTING
DOWN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS DIG THE WEST
COAST LOW SOUTHWARD WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE LOW OFF THE CNTRL
CALIFORNIA COAST. ALL THIS MAKES A DIFFERENCE ON HOW MUCH THE UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM OVER COLORADO. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS SHOW A STRONGER PUSH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MORE
RIDGING OVER COLORADO AND THUS LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND NO INDICATION
OF PCPN ANYWHERE WITHIN THE CWA. FOR NOW WILL CONFINE ANY PCPN
CHANCE ALBEIT LOW ONES...TO THE HIGH COUNTRY.. AND GRADUALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES EAST TO THE MTNS WITH A CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 812 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MID
AND CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS CO. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT KBJC...WEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...COOPER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 280317
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
817 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

PACIFIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER COLORADO UNDER A WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MANY AREAS. ON FRIDAY...AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER...SO COULD SEE A FEW LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
WAVE CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOWING
WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. APPEARS THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
STAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

BROAD BELT OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION WOULD SUPPORT
ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE PLAINS AND MOSTLY 40S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY PROGGED BY
THE MODELS LOOK REASONABLY SOUND. ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN WAVE
CLOUDINESS EAST OF THE MTNS COULD CERTAINLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES
DEPENDING ON THEIR THICKNESS...BUT FOR NOW WILL COUNT ON THE
ENHANCED W-SWLY FLOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE TO WARM THINGS UP ACROSS
THE PLAINS. SPEAKING OF WINDS...A MUCH BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE
STRONG AND GUSTY WLY WINDS DEVELOPING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY. BY AFTERNOON COULD SEE GUSTS APPROACHING
70 MPH ON THE HIGH RIDGES AND PEAKS ON THE FRONT RANGE...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 50 MPH IN THE FOOTHILLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FLOW ALOFT
EASES SOME ON SUNDAY AND MORE SO MONDAY AS IT BACKS TO MORE OF A
SWLY COMPONENT IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THIS SWLY FLOW MODELS SHOW A RIBBON OF
MOIST PACIFIC AIR DARTING EWRD OVER NWRN COLORADO BY SUN MORNING.
AS A RESULT COULD SEE THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING IN THE
PARK AND GORE RANGES THRU THE DAY. HOWEVER MODEL QPF AND SNOW ACCUM
AMOUNTS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER EAST
OF THE MTNS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT UP OVER ERN WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA IS FCST TO DROP INTO NERN COLORADO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY BACK UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF THE
DENVER BY MIDDAY OF SUNDAY. AS IT LOOKS NOW...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
REACHED BEFORE 15Z ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE I-
25 URBAN CORRIDOR AROUND MIDDAY...IF NOT SOONER OVER NRN SECTIONS.
AIR BACKING IN LOOKS DRY...SO NO PCPN AND NOT MUCH LOWER CLOUD
COVER. ONCE THIS COOL AIRMASS BACKS INTO THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD SEE
THE STG AND GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS SHUTTING
DOWN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS DIG THE WEST
COAST LOW SOUTHWARD WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE LOW OFF THE CNTRL
CALIFORNIA COAST. ALL THIS MAKES A DIFFERENCE ON HOW MUCH THE UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM OVER COLORADO. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS SHOW A STRONGER PUSH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MORE
RIDGING OVER COLORADO AND THUS LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND NO INDICATION
OF PCPN ANYWHERE WITHIN THE CWA. FOR NOW WILL CONFINE ANY PCPN
CHANCE ALBEIT LOW ONES...TO THE HIGH COUNTRY.. AND GRADUALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES EAST TO THE MTNS WITH A CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 812 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MID
AND CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS CO. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT KBJC...WEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 272228
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
328 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

PACIFIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER COLORADO UNDER A WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MANY AREAS. ON FRIDAY...AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER...SO COULD SEE A FEW LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
WAVE CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOWING
WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. APPEARS THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
STAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

BROAD BELT OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION WOULD SUPPORT
ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE PLAINS AND MOSTLY 40S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY PROGGED BY
THE MODELS LOOK REASONABLY SOUND. ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN WAVE
CLOUDINESS EAST OF THE MTNS COULD CERTAINLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES
DEPENDING ON THEIR THICKNESS...BUT FOR NOW WILL COUNT ON THE
ENHANCED W-SWLY FLOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE TO WARM THINGS UP ACROSS
THE PLAINS. SPEAKING OF WINDS...A MUCH BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE
STRONG AND GUSTY WLY WINDS DEVELOPING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY. BY AFTERNOON COULD SEE GUSTS APPROACHING
70 MPH ON THE HIGH RIDGES AND PEAKS ON THE FRONT RANGE...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 50 MPH IN THE FOOTHILLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FLOW ALOFT
EASES SOME ON SUNDAY AND MORE SO MONDAY AS IT BACKS TO MORE OF A
SWLY COMPONENT IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THIS SWLY FLOW MODELS SHOW A RIBBON OF
MOIST PACIFIC AIR DARTING EWRD OVER NWRN COLORADO BY SUN MORNING.
AS A RESULT COULD SEE THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING IN THE
PARK AND GORE RANGES THRU THE DAY. HOWEVER MODEL QPF AND SNOW ACCUM
AMOUNTS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER EAST
OF THE MTNS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT UP OVER ERN WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA IS FCST TO DROP INTO NERN COLORADO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY BACK UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF THE
DENVER BY MIDDAY OF SUNDAY. AS IT LOOKS NOW...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
REACHED BEFORE 15Z ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE I-
25 URBAN CORRIDOR AROUND MIDDAY...IF NOT SOONER OVER NRN SECTIONS.
AIR BACKING IN LOOKS DRY...SO NO PCPN AND NOT MUCH LOWER CLOUD
COVER. ONCE THIS COOL AIRMASS BACKS INTO THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD SEE
THE STG AND GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS SHUTTING
DOWN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS DIG THE WEST
COAST LOW SOUTHWARD WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE LOW OFF THE CNTRL
CALIFORNIA COAST. ALL THIS MAKES A DIFFERENCE ON HOW MUCH THE UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM OVER COLORADO. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS SHOW A STRONGER PUSH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MORE
RIDGING OVER COLORADO AND THUS LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND NO INDICATION
OF PCPN ANYWHERE WITHIN THE CWA. FOR NOW WILL CONFINE ANY PCPN
CHANCE ALBEIT LOW ONES...TO THE HIGH COUNTRY.. AND GRADUALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES EAST TO THE MTNS WITH A CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN
PLACE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MID AND CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE. WESTERLY WINDS AT KBJC AND KDEN WILL
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AT KAPA AND KBJC. AT KBJC...WEST WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 272228
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
328 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

PACIFIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER COLORADO UNDER A WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MANY AREAS. ON FRIDAY...AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER...SO COULD SEE A FEW LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
WAVE CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOWING
WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. APPEARS THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
STAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

BROAD BELT OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION WOULD SUPPORT
ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE PLAINS AND MOSTLY 40S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY PROGGED BY
THE MODELS LOOK REASONABLY SOUND. ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN WAVE
CLOUDINESS EAST OF THE MTNS COULD CERTAINLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES
DEPENDING ON THEIR THICKNESS...BUT FOR NOW WILL COUNT ON THE
ENHANCED W-SWLY FLOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE TO WARM THINGS UP ACROSS
THE PLAINS. SPEAKING OF WINDS...A MUCH BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE
STRONG AND GUSTY WLY WINDS DEVELOPING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY. BY AFTERNOON COULD SEE GUSTS APPROACHING
70 MPH ON THE HIGH RIDGES AND PEAKS ON THE FRONT RANGE...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 50 MPH IN THE FOOTHILLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FLOW ALOFT
EASES SOME ON SUNDAY AND MORE SO MONDAY AS IT BACKS TO MORE OF A
SWLY COMPONENT IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THIS SWLY FLOW MODELS SHOW A RIBBON OF
MOIST PACIFIC AIR DARTING EWRD OVER NWRN COLORADO BY SUN MORNING.
AS A RESULT COULD SEE THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING IN THE
PARK AND GORE RANGES THRU THE DAY. HOWEVER MODEL QPF AND SNOW ACCUM
AMOUNTS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER EAST
OF THE MTNS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT UP OVER ERN WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA IS FCST TO DROP INTO NERN COLORADO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY BACK UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF THE
DENVER BY MIDDAY OF SUNDAY. AS IT LOOKS NOW...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
REACHED BEFORE 15Z ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE I-
25 URBAN CORRIDOR AROUND MIDDAY...IF NOT SOONER OVER NRN SECTIONS.
AIR BACKING IN LOOKS DRY...SO NO PCPN AND NOT MUCH LOWER CLOUD
COVER. ONCE THIS COOL AIRMASS BACKS INTO THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD SEE
THE STG AND GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS SHUTTING
DOWN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS DIG THE WEST
COAST LOW SOUTHWARD WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE LOW OFF THE CNTRL
CALIFORNIA COAST. ALL THIS MAKES A DIFFERENCE ON HOW MUCH THE UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM OVER COLORADO. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS SHOW A STRONGER PUSH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MORE
RIDGING OVER COLORADO AND THUS LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND NO INDICATION
OF PCPN ANYWHERE WITHIN THE CWA. FOR NOW WILL CONFINE ANY PCPN
CHANCE ALBEIT LOW ONES...TO THE HIGH COUNTRY.. AND GRADUALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES EAST TO THE MTNS WITH A CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN
PLACE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MID AND CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE. WESTERLY WINDS AT KBJC AND KDEN WILL
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AT KAPA AND KBJC. AT KBJC...WEST WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 271652
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
952 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MILD AND DRY DAY WILL PREVAIL UNDER A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED IN THE UPPER 50S WHERE THE WIND IS
BLOWING NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. IN LOWER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. MAY
NEED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN A FEW AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
WARM. APPEARS THE WAVES CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...SO THIS SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES SOME TOO.

STILL LOOKS WINDY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS TONIGHT
WHERE GUSTS TO 60 TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WNW AS SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.  THERE WILL BE SOME WAVE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY WHICH MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS OVER NERN CO.  WITH
DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW IN PLACE IF SKIES WERE CLEAR HIGHS WOULD
LIKELY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
HOWEVER WITH LOWER SUN ANGLE HIGH CLOUD DECK CAN ALTER TEMPS QUITE A
BIT IN SOME CASES.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE MID 60S ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NR THE WY-NE BORDER.
MEANWHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND MTN
AREAS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AT TIMES.

FOR TONIGHT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE HIGHER
FOOTHILLS AND MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CROSS MTN FLOW INCREASES
TO 60-65 KTS.  MTN WAVE IS NOT WELL DEFINED BASED ON CURRENT DATA SO
NOT SURE HOW IF THEY WILL STAY ABV TIMBERLINE OR WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MODELS HAVE FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
...THEN JUST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ANYWAY...JET LEVEL WINDS ARE
PROGGED IN THE 75-100 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE BENIGN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN UPWARD
MOTION IS PROGGED CONTINUING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ARE DOWNSLOPING WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY OVER ALL THE CWA FOR
ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS A BIT OF MOUNTAIN WAVE SET ON THE
CROSS SECTIONS FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT HIGHLIGHT WORTHY. MOISTURE IS VERY SPARSE
ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
NOT VERY SUBSTANTIAL. DOUBT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
DECENT WAVE CLOUD. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE
1.5-3.0 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S EXPECTED HIGHS. SATURDAY`S ARE A
TAD...0-1.5 C...COOLER THAN FRIDAY`S. BOTH DAY`S MOS GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
HIGHS FOR DENVER. READINGS WILL BE 20-25 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT BRINGS IN
A COLD FRONT AND SOME UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS BUT MOISTURE IS STILL
INSIGNIFICANT. THERE IS ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...THE
ECMWF HAS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH... THE GFS IS ZONAL MOVING TO
RIDGING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING ON THE ECMWF FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES VARY QUITE A BIT BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE
ECMWF HAS A BIT OF MEASURABLE QPF SUNDAY NIGHT LATE THROUGH
TUESDAY BUT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS HAS NONE THROUGH THAT
TIME. THE GFS BRINGS A TINY BIT INTO THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF IS DRY. NOT GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THE CURRENT
PATTERN LOOKED WILDLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS 5 TO 7 DAYS
AGO TOO. THE GFS WON THAT BATTLE. MAY GO WITH SOME MINOR ALPINE
POPS SOME OF THE TIME...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. FOR TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 952 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS COLORADO TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER AT KBJC...WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WINDS MOVE OFF THE
FOOTHILLS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 271025
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
325 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WNW AS SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.  THERE WILL BE SOME WAVE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY WHICH MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS OVER NERN CO.  WITH
DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW IN PLACE IF SKIES WERE CLEAR HIGHS WOULD
LIKELY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
HOWEVER WITH LOWER SUN ANGLE HIGH CLOUD DECK CAN ALTER TEMPS QUITE A
BIT IN SOME CASES.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE MID 60S ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NR THE WY-NE BORDER.
MEANWHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND MTN
AREAS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AT TIMES.

FOR TONIGHT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE HIGHER
FOOTHILLS AND MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CROSS MTN FLOW INCREASES
TO 60-65 KTS.  MTN WAVE IS NOT WELL DEFINED BASED ON CURRENT DATA SO
NOT SURE HOW IF THEY WILL STAY ABV TIMBERLINE OR WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MODELS HAVE FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
...THEN JUST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ANYWAY...JET LEVEL WINDS ARE
PROGGED IN THE 75-100 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE BENIGN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN UPWARD
MOTION IS PROGGED CONTINUING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ARE DOWNSLOPING WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY OVER ALL THE CWA FOR
ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS A BIT OF MOUNTAIN WAVE SET ON THE
CROSS SECTIONS FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT HIGHLIGHT WORTHY. MOISTURE IS VERY SPARSE
ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
NOT VERY SUBSTANTIAL. DOUBT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
DECENT WAVE CLOUD. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE
1.5-3.0 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S EXPECTED HIGHS. SATURDAY`S ARE A
TAD...0-1.5 C...COOLER THAN FRIDAY`S. BOTH DAY`S MOS GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
HIGHS FOR DENVER. READINGS WILL BE 20-25 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT BRINGS IN
A COLD FRONT AND SOME UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS BUT MOISTURE IS STILL
INSIGNIFICANT. THERE IS ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...THE
ECMWF HAS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH... THE GFS IS ZONAL MOVING TO
RIDGING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING ON THE ECMWF FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES VARY QUITE A BIT BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE
ECMWF HAS A BIT OF MEASURABLE QPF SUNDAY NIGHT LATE THROUGH
TUESDAY BUT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS HAS NONE THROUGH THAT
TIME. THE GFS BRINGS A TINY BIT INTO THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF IS DRY. NOT GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THE CURRENT
PATTERN LOOKED WILDLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS 5 TO 7 DAYS
AGO TOO. THE GFS WON THAT BATTLE. MAY GO WITH SOME MINOR ALPINE
POPS SOME OF THE TIME...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. FOR TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

OUTSIDE OF HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BE SLY THRU MIDDAY BUT THEN BECOME
MORE SWLY IN THE 20Z-21Z TIME PERIOD.  BY EARLY EVENING THEY SHOULD
BECOME MORE SSW AND REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 271025
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
325 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WNW AS SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.  THERE WILL BE SOME WAVE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY WHICH MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS OVER NERN CO.  WITH
DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW IN PLACE IF SKIES WERE CLEAR HIGHS WOULD
LIKELY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
HOWEVER WITH LOWER SUN ANGLE HIGH CLOUD DECK CAN ALTER TEMPS QUITE A
BIT IN SOME CASES.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE MID 60S ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NR THE WY-NE BORDER.
MEANWHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND MTN
AREAS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AT TIMES.

FOR TONIGHT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE HIGHER
FOOTHILLS AND MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CROSS MTN FLOW INCREASES
TO 60-65 KTS.  MTN WAVE IS NOT WELL DEFINED BASED ON CURRENT DATA SO
NOT SURE HOW IF THEY WILL STAY ABV TIMBERLINE OR WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MODELS HAVE FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
...THEN JUST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ANYWAY...JET LEVEL WINDS ARE
PROGGED IN THE 75-100 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE BENIGN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN UPWARD
MOTION IS PROGGED CONTINUING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ARE DOWNSLOPING WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY OVER ALL THE CWA FOR
ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS A BIT OF MOUNTAIN WAVE SET ON THE
CROSS SECTIONS FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT HIGHLIGHT WORTHY. MOISTURE IS VERY SPARSE
ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
NOT VERY SUBSTANTIAL. DOUBT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
DECENT WAVE CLOUD. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE
1.5-3.0 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S EXPECTED HIGHS. SATURDAY`S ARE A
TAD...0-1.5 C...COOLER THAN FRIDAY`S. BOTH DAY`S MOS GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
HIGHS FOR DENVER. READINGS WILL BE 20-25 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT BRINGS IN
A COLD FRONT AND SOME UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS BUT MOISTURE IS STILL
INSIGNIFICANT. THERE IS ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...THE
ECMWF HAS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH... THE GFS IS ZONAL MOVING TO
RIDGING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING ON THE ECMWF FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES VARY QUITE A BIT BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE
ECMWF HAS A BIT OF MEASURABLE QPF SUNDAY NIGHT LATE THROUGH
TUESDAY BUT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS HAS NONE THROUGH THAT
TIME. THE GFS BRINGS A TINY BIT INTO THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF IS DRY. NOT GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THE CURRENT
PATTERN LOOKED WILDLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS 5 TO 7 DAYS
AGO TOO. THE GFS WON THAT BATTLE. MAY GO WITH SOME MINOR ALPINE
POPS SOME OF THE TIME...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. FOR TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

OUTSIDE OF HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BE SLY THRU MIDDAY BUT THEN BECOME
MORE SWLY IN THE 20Z-21Z TIME PERIOD.  BY EARLY EVENING THEY SHOULD
BECOME MORE SSW AND REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 271025
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
325 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WNW AS SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.  THERE WILL BE SOME WAVE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY WHICH MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS OVER NERN CO.  WITH
DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW IN PLACE IF SKIES WERE CLEAR HIGHS WOULD
LIKELY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
HOWEVER WITH LOWER SUN ANGLE HIGH CLOUD DECK CAN ALTER TEMPS QUITE A
BIT IN SOME CASES.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE MID 60S ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NR THE WY-NE BORDER.
MEANWHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND MTN
AREAS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AT TIMES.

FOR TONIGHT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE HIGHER
FOOTHILLS AND MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CROSS MTN FLOW INCREASES
TO 60-65 KTS.  MTN WAVE IS NOT WELL DEFINED BASED ON CURRENT DATA SO
NOT SURE HOW IF THEY WILL STAY ABV TIMBERLINE OR WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MODELS HAVE FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
...THEN JUST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ANYWAY...JET LEVEL WINDS ARE
PROGGED IN THE 75-100 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE BENIGN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN UPWARD
MOTION IS PROGGED CONTINUING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ARE DOWNSLOPING WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY OVER ALL THE CWA FOR
ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS A BIT OF MOUNTAIN WAVE SET ON THE
CROSS SECTIONS FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT HIGHLIGHT WORTHY. MOISTURE IS VERY SPARSE
ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
NOT VERY SUBSTANTIAL. DOUBT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
DECENT WAVE CLOUD. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE
1.5-3.0 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S EXPECTED HIGHS. SATURDAY`S ARE A
TAD...0-1.5 C...COOLER THAN FRIDAY`S. BOTH DAY`S MOS GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
HIGHS FOR DENVER. READINGS WILL BE 20-25 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT BRINGS IN
A COLD FRONT AND SOME UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS BUT MOISTURE IS STILL
INSIGNIFICANT. THERE IS ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...THE
ECMWF HAS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH... THE GFS IS ZONAL MOVING TO
RIDGING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING ON THE ECMWF FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES VARY QUITE A BIT BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE
ECMWF HAS A BIT OF MEASURABLE QPF SUNDAY NIGHT LATE THROUGH
TUESDAY BUT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS HAS NONE THROUGH THAT
TIME. THE GFS BRINGS A TINY BIT INTO THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF IS DRY. NOT GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THE CURRENT
PATTERN LOOKED WILDLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS 5 TO 7 DAYS
AGO TOO. THE GFS WON THAT BATTLE. MAY GO WITH SOME MINOR ALPINE
POPS SOME OF THE TIME...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. FOR TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

OUTSIDE OF HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BE SLY THRU MIDDAY BUT THEN BECOME
MORE SWLY IN THE 20Z-21Z TIME PERIOD.  BY EARLY EVENING THEY SHOULD
BECOME MORE SSW AND REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 270338
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
838 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EVENING FORECAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUSH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES.

SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES.
OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING SOME GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH RANGE
OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS MOUNTAIN TOP
STABILITY INCREASES FURTHER OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT
HIGHEST WINDS GUSTS BELOW THE 75 MPH THRESHOLD FOR HIGH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLATTEN AS IT
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW. SOME CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES TOO. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS A SMALL BAND
REFORMING THIS EVENING. NOT SOLD ON THIS...SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE. IF ANY SNOW FORMS...IT SHOULD BE LIGHT.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS HAS KEPT THE COOLER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS PRODUCED WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY IN
THE LOWER FOOTHILLS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FLUSH OUT THE
COOLER AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND LEAD TO MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THANKSGIVING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...SO WAVE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. THIS MAY SLOW WARMING
SOME...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

...A DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...

STARTING WITH FRIDAY A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STRONG
WNW FLOW ALOFT. ACCORDING TO MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS A MOUNTAIN WAVE
WILL FORM THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THERE IS A LACK OF AN INVERSION LAYER AT MOUNTAIN
TOP SO IT WILL DIFFICULT TO BRING THOSE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SO HIGHER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...CHINOOK WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND AID IN GETTING
AREAS CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. CURRENT
TRENDS HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE DENVER METRO. THIS
WOULD EITHER MEET OR EXCEED THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH FOR FRIDAY OF
72 SET BACK IN 1901.

DRY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTING TO 70 MPH STILL POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN
TOP. MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY IS STILL LACKING SO WILL KEEP WINDS
ISOLATED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE IN THE
MORNING WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 60-65 OVER MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. THE MAIN FEATURE HOWEVER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IS AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PLAINS STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. MOISTURE STILL LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
LEFT POPS OUT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SHOWS
WESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
LITTLE PRECIP ASSOCIATED...WHILE THE EC HAS A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS WITH NO CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 835 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME BUT MORE
DRAINAGE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY 06Z OR SO. WILL SEE VARYING
AMOUNTS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WAVE CLOUD REMAINING OVER
THE FRONT RANGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WEST
WINDS TO 25KT DEVELOPING AT BJC BETWEEN 11Z AND 18Z WITH DOWNSLOPE
FLOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 270338
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
838 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EVENING FORECAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUSH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES.

SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES.
OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING SOME GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH RANGE
OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS MOUNTAIN TOP
STABILITY INCREASES FURTHER OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT
HIGHEST WINDS GUSTS BELOW THE 75 MPH THRESHOLD FOR HIGH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLATTEN AS IT
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW. SOME CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES TOO. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS A SMALL BAND
REFORMING THIS EVENING. NOT SOLD ON THIS...SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE. IF ANY SNOW FORMS...IT SHOULD BE LIGHT.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS HAS KEPT THE COOLER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS PRODUCED WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY IN
THE LOWER FOOTHILLS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FLUSH OUT THE
COOLER AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND LEAD TO MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THANKSGIVING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...SO WAVE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. THIS MAY SLOW WARMING
SOME...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

...A DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...

STARTING WITH FRIDAY A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STRONG
WNW FLOW ALOFT. ACCORDING TO MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS A MOUNTAIN WAVE
WILL FORM THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THERE IS A LACK OF AN INVERSION LAYER AT MOUNTAIN
TOP SO IT WILL DIFFICULT TO BRING THOSE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SO HIGHER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...CHINOOK WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND AID IN GETTING
AREAS CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. CURRENT
TRENDS HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE DENVER METRO. THIS
WOULD EITHER MEET OR EXCEED THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH FOR FRIDAY OF
72 SET BACK IN 1901.

DRY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTING TO 70 MPH STILL POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN
TOP. MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY IS STILL LACKING SO WILL KEEP WINDS
ISOLATED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE IN THE
MORNING WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 60-65 OVER MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. THE MAIN FEATURE HOWEVER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IS AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PLAINS STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. MOISTURE STILL LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
LEFT POPS OUT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SHOWS
WESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
LITTLE PRECIP ASSOCIATED...WHILE THE EC HAS A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS WITH NO CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 835 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME BUT MORE
DRAINAGE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY 06Z OR SO. WILL SEE VARYING
AMOUNTS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WAVE CLOUD REMAINING OVER
THE FRONT RANGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WEST
WINDS TO 25KT DEVELOPING AT BJC BETWEEN 11Z AND 18Z WITH DOWNSLOPE
FLOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 270338
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
838 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EVENING FORECAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUSH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES.

SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES.
OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING SOME GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH RANGE
OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS MOUNTAIN TOP
STABILITY INCREASES FURTHER OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT
HIGHEST WINDS GUSTS BELOW THE 75 MPH THRESHOLD FOR HIGH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLATTEN AS IT
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW. SOME CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES TOO. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS A SMALL BAND
REFORMING THIS EVENING. NOT SOLD ON THIS...SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE. IF ANY SNOW FORMS...IT SHOULD BE LIGHT.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS HAS KEPT THE COOLER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS PRODUCED WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY IN
THE LOWER FOOTHILLS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FLUSH OUT THE
COOLER AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND LEAD TO MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THANKSGIVING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...SO WAVE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. THIS MAY SLOW WARMING
SOME...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

...A DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...

STARTING WITH FRIDAY A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STRONG
WNW FLOW ALOFT. ACCORDING TO MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS A MOUNTAIN WAVE
WILL FORM THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THERE IS A LACK OF AN INVERSION LAYER AT MOUNTAIN
TOP SO IT WILL DIFFICULT TO BRING THOSE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SO HIGHER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...CHINOOK WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND AID IN GETTING
AREAS CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. CURRENT
TRENDS HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE DENVER METRO. THIS
WOULD EITHER MEET OR EXCEED THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH FOR FRIDAY OF
72 SET BACK IN 1901.

DRY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTING TO 70 MPH STILL POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN
TOP. MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY IS STILL LACKING SO WILL KEEP WINDS
ISOLATED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE IN THE
MORNING WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 60-65 OVER MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. THE MAIN FEATURE HOWEVER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IS AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PLAINS STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. MOISTURE STILL LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
LEFT POPS OUT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SHOWS
WESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
LITTLE PRECIP ASSOCIATED...WHILE THE EC HAS A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS WITH NO CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 835 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME BUT MORE
DRAINAGE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY 06Z OR SO. WILL SEE VARYING
AMOUNTS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WAVE CLOUD REMAINING OVER
THE FRONT RANGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WEST
WINDS TO 25KT DEVELOPING AT BJC BETWEEN 11Z AND 18Z WITH DOWNSLOPE
FLOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 270338
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
838 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EVENING FORECAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUSH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES.

SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES.
OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING SOME GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH RANGE
OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS MOUNTAIN TOP
STABILITY INCREASES FURTHER OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT
HIGHEST WINDS GUSTS BELOW THE 75 MPH THRESHOLD FOR HIGH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLATTEN AS IT
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW. SOME CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES TOO. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS A SMALL BAND
REFORMING THIS EVENING. NOT SOLD ON THIS...SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE. IF ANY SNOW FORMS...IT SHOULD BE LIGHT.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS HAS KEPT THE COOLER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS PRODUCED WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY IN
THE LOWER FOOTHILLS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FLUSH OUT THE
COOLER AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND LEAD TO MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THANKSGIVING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...SO WAVE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. THIS MAY SLOW WARMING
SOME...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

...A DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...

STARTING WITH FRIDAY A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STRONG
WNW FLOW ALOFT. ACCORDING TO MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS A MOUNTAIN WAVE
WILL FORM THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THERE IS A LACK OF AN INVERSION LAYER AT MOUNTAIN
TOP SO IT WILL DIFFICULT TO BRING THOSE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SO HIGHER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...CHINOOK WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND AID IN GETTING
AREAS CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. CURRENT
TRENDS HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE DENVER METRO. THIS
WOULD EITHER MEET OR EXCEED THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH FOR FRIDAY OF
72 SET BACK IN 1901.

DRY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTING TO 70 MPH STILL POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN
TOP. MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY IS STILL LACKING SO WILL KEEP WINDS
ISOLATED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE IN THE
MORNING WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 60-65 OVER MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. THE MAIN FEATURE HOWEVER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IS AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PLAINS STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. MOISTURE STILL LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
LEFT POPS OUT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SHOWS
WESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
LITTLE PRECIP ASSOCIATED...WHILE THE EC HAS A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS WITH NO CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 835 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME BUT MORE
DRAINAGE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY 06Z OR SO. WILL SEE VARYING
AMOUNTS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WAVE CLOUD REMAINING OVER
THE FRONT RANGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WEST
WINDS TO 25KT DEVELOPING AT BJC BETWEEN 11Z AND 18Z WITH DOWNSLOPE
FLOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 262205
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLATTEN AS IT
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW. SOME CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES TOO. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS A SMALL BAND
REFORMING THIS EVENING. NOT SOLD ON THIS...SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE. IF ANY SNOW FORMS...IT SHOULD BE LIGHT.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS HAS KEPT THE COOLER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS PRODUCED WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY IN
THE LOWER FOOTHILLS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FLUSH OUT THE
COOLER AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND LEAD TO MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THANKSGIVING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...SO WAVE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. THIS MAY SLOW WARMING
SOME...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

...A DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...

STARTING WITH FRIDAY A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STRONG
WNW FLOW ALOFT. ACCORDING TO MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS A MOUNTAIN WAVE
WILL FORM THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THERE IS A LACK OF AN INVERSION LAYER AT MOUNTAIN
TOP SO IT WILL DIFFICULT TO BRING THOSE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SO HIGHER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...CHINOOK WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND AID IN GETTING
AREAS CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. CURRENT
TRENDS HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE DENVER METRO. THIS
WOULD EITHER MEET OR EXCEED THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH FOR FRIDAY OF
72 SET BACK IN 1901.

DRY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTING TO 70 MPH STILL POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN
TOP. MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY IS STILL LACKING SO WILL KEEP WINDS
ISOLATED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE IN THE
MORNING WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 60-65 OVER MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. THE MAIN FEATURE HOWEVER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IS AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PLAINS STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. MOISTURE STILL LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
LEFT POPS OUT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SHOWS
WESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
LITTLE PRECIP ASSOCIATED...WHILE THE EC HAS A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS WITH NO CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
JUST AFTER 00Z AT KDEN AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 03Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REST OF TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY THROUGH OUT THE DENVER AREA. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS
THAN 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 262205
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLATTEN AS IT
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW. SOME CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES TOO. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS A SMALL BAND
REFORMING THIS EVENING. NOT SOLD ON THIS...SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE. IF ANY SNOW FORMS...IT SHOULD BE LIGHT.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS HAS KEPT THE COOLER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS PRODUCED WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY IN
THE LOWER FOOTHILLS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FLUSH OUT THE
COOLER AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND LEAD TO MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THANKSGIVING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...SO WAVE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. THIS MAY SLOW WARMING
SOME...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

...A DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...

STARTING WITH FRIDAY A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STRONG
WNW FLOW ALOFT. ACCORDING TO MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS A MOUNTAIN WAVE
WILL FORM THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THERE IS A LACK OF AN INVERSION LAYER AT MOUNTAIN
TOP SO IT WILL DIFFICULT TO BRING THOSE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SO HIGHER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...CHINOOK WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND AID IN GETTING
AREAS CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. CURRENT
TRENDS HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE DENVER METRO. THIS
WOULD EITHER MEET OR EXCEED THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH FOR FRIDAY OF
72 SET BACK IN 1901.

DRY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTING TO 70 MPH STILL POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN
TOP. MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY IS STILL LACKING SO WILL KEEP WINDS
ISOLATED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE IN THE
MORNING WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 60-65 OVER MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. THE MAIN FEATURE HOWEVER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IS AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PLAINS STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. MOISTURE STILL LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
LEFT POPS OUT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SHOWS
WESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
LITTLE PRECIP ASSOCIATED...WHILE THE EC HAS A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS WITH NO CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
JUST AFTER 00Z AT KDEN AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 03Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REST OF TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY THROUGH OUT THE DENVER AREA. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS
THAN 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 262205
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLATTEN AS IT
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW. SOME CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES TOO. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS A SMALL BAND
REFORMING THIS EVENING. NOT SOLD ON THIS...SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE. IF ANY SNOW FORMS...IT SHOULD BE LIGHT.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS HAS KEPT THE COOLER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS PRODUCED WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY IN
THE LOWER FOOTHILLS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FLUSH OUT THE
COOLER AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND LEAD TO MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THANKSGIVING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...SO WAVE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. THIS MAY SLOW WARMING
SOME...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

...A DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...

STARTING WITH FRIDAY A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STRONG
WNW FLOW ALOFT. ACCORDING TO MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS A MOUNTAIN WAVE
WILL FORM THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THERE IS A LACK OF AN INVERSION LAYER AT MOUNTAIN
TOP SO IT WILL DIFFICULT TO BRING THOSE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SO HIGHER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...CHINOOK WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND AID IN GETTING
AREAS CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. CURRENT
TRENDS HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE DENVER METRO. THIS
WOULD EITHER MEET OR EXCEED THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH FOR FRIDAY OF
72 SET BACK IN 1901.

DRY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTING TO 70 MPH STILL POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN
TOP. MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY IS STILL LACKING SO WILL KEEP WINDS
ISOLATED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE IN THE
MORNING WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 60-65 OVER MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. THE MAIN FEATURE HOWEVER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IS AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PLAINS STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. MOISTURE STILL LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
LEFT POPS OUT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SHOWS
WESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
LITTLE PRECIP ASSOCIATED...WHILE THE EC HAS A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS WITH NO CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
JUST AFTER 00Z AT KDEN AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 03Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REST OF TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY THROUGH OUT THE DENVER AREA. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS
THAN 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 262205
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLATTEN AS IT
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW. SOME CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES TOO. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS A SMALL BAND
REFORMING THIS EVENING. NOT SOLD ON THIS...SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE. IF ANY SNOW FORMS...IT SHOULD BE LIGHT.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS HAS KEPT THE COOLER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS PRODUCED WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY IN
THE LOWER FOOTHILLS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FLUSH OUT THE
COOLER AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND LEAD TO MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THANKSGIVING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...SO WAVE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. THIS MAY SLOW WARMING
SOME...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

...A DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...

STARTING WITH FRIDAY A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STRONG
WNW FLOW ALOFT. ACCORDING TO MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS A MOUNTAIN WAVE
WILL FORM THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THERE IS A LACK OF AN INVERSION LAYER AT MOUNTAIN
TOP SO IT WILL DIFFICULT TO BRING THOSE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SO HIGHER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...CHINOOK WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND AID IN GETTING
AREAS CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. CURRENT
TRENDS HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE DENVER METRO. THIS
WOULD EITHER MEET OR EXCEED THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH FOR FRIDAY OF
72 SET BACK IN 1901.

DRY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTING TO 70 MPH STILL POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN
TOP. MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY IS STILL LACKING SO WILL KEEP WINDS
ISOLATED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE IN THE
MORNING WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 60-65 OVER MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. THE MAIN FEATURE HOWEVER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IS AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PLAINS STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. MOISTURE STILL LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
LEFT POPS OUT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SHOWS
WESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
LITTLE PRECIP ASSOCIATED...WHILE THE EC HAS A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS WITH NO CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
JUST AFTER 00Z AT KDEN AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 03Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REST OF TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY THROUGH OUT THE DENVER AREA. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS
THAN 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 261623
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
923 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

RADAR SHOWING A BAND SNOW STILL HANGING ON OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. RAISED POPS FOR THIS THROUGH THE MORNING
WHERE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. INCREASED
WINDS ALONG HIGHWAY 285 ACROSS PARK COUNTY FOR TODAY. OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING GUSTS T0 60 MPH HERE...THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THESE STRONG
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. INCREASED THE FORECAST TO
INDICATE GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PLAN ON LETTING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AT NOON. WEB
CAMERAS JUST SHOWING LIGHT SNOW IN PLACES. IN GENERAL...CONDITIONS
ARE STARTING IMPROVE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...THOUGH MANY ROADS ARE
STILL SNOW COVERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.  CROSS-SECTIONS
STILL SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE MTNS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL LAPSES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THRU THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN.  MEANWHILE
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL SO EXPECT BLOWING SNOW MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FT THUS WILL EXTEND ADVISORY THRU NOON.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NERN CO REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL BANDED PCPN THRU
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
FOCUS ENE OF A GREELEY TO LIMON LINE. WEAK UPSLOPE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE MAY LEAD TO SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS WELL THRU MID
MORNING. BY MIDDAY SHOULD PCPN CHANCES END OVER THE PLAINS. AS FOR
HIGHS THERE COULD BE QUITE A RANGE OVER NERN CO WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER WHILE FURTHER NE OVER THE PLAINS HIGHS
STAY IN THE 30S.

FOR TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF A FEW -SHSN IN THE MTNS THIS EVENING IT
SHOULD BE DRY.  A MTN WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH CROSS-MTN
FLOW IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE.  THUS WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
MTNS AND FOOTHILL AREAS BUT SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BLO HIGH WIND
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.  FOR THURSDAY...A DRYING AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASING AT MOUNTAIN
TOP THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH LACK OF MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY
EXPECT MUCH OF THE HIGHER WINDS TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
PASSES AND HIGHER EAST SLOPES WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
UNDER A VERY DRY AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER EAST SLOPES WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH BUT
AGAIN HIGHER WINDS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
READINGS FLIRTING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND POSSIBLE
RECORD HIGHS IF WE GET ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY UNDER STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

FOR SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROF SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WHICH SENDS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE
IN THE DAY. THE RESULT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.

BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THE GFS SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE. ON THE OTHER
HAND THE EUROPEAN HAS A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SOME EMBEDDED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 923 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW WILL COME TO AN END TODAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS...WHILE THE DENVER AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SNOW FREE
TODAY. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BURN OFF IN THE DENVER
AREA...AND EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH OUT THE DENVER AREA BY
18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY TODAY AND THEN TURN SOUTHERLY AFTER
00Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 261623
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
923 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

RADAR SHOWING A BAND SNOW STILL HANGING ON OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. RAISED POPS FOR THIS THROUGH THE MORNING
WHERE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. INCREASED
WINDS ALONG HIGHWAY 285 ACROSS PARK COUNTY FOR TODAY. OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING GUSTS T0 60 MPH HERE...THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THESE STRONG
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. INCREASED THE FORECAST TO
INDICATE GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PLAN ON LETTING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AT NOON. WEB
CAMERAS JUST SHOWING LIGHT SNOW IN PLACES. IN GENERAL...CONDITIONS
ARE STARTING IMPROVE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...THOUGH MANY ROADS ARE
STILL SNOW COVERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.  CROSS-SECTIONS
STILL SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE MTNS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL LAPSES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THRU THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN.  MEANWHILE
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL SO EXPECT BLOWING SNOW MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FT THUS WILL EXTEND ADVISORY THRU NOON.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NERN CO REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL BANDED PCPN THRU
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
FOCUS ENE OF A GREELEY TO LIMON LINE. WEAK UPSLOPE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE MAY LEAD TO SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS WELL THRU MID
MORNING. BY MIDDAY SHOULD PCPN CHANCES END OVER THE PLAINS. AS FOR
HIGHS THERE COULD BE QUITE A RANGE OVER NERN CO WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER WHILE FURTHER NE OVER THE PLAINS HIGHS
STAY IN THE 30S.

FOR TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF A FEW -SHSN IN THE MTNS THIS EVENING IT
SHOULD BE DRY.  A MTN WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH CROSS-MTN
FLOW IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE.  THUS WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
MTNS AND FOOTHILL AREAS BUT SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BLO HIGH WIND
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.  FOR THURSDAY...A DRYING AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASING AT MOUNTAIN
TOP THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH LACK OF MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY
EXPECT MUCH OF THE HIGHER WINDS TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
PASSES AND HIGHER EAST SLOPES WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
UNDER A VERY DRY AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER EAST SLOPES WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH BUT
AGAIN HIGHER WINDS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
READINGS FLIRTING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND POSSIBLE
RECORD HIGHS IF WE GET ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY UNDER STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

FOR SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROF SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WHICH SENDS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE
IN THE DAY. THE RESULT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.

BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THE GFS SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE. ON THE OTHER
HAND THE EUROPEAN HAS A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SOME EMBEDDED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 923 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW WILL COME TO AN END TODAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS...WHILE THE DENVER AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SNOW FREE
TODAY. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BURN OFF IN THE DENVER
AREA...AND EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH OUT THE DENVER AREA BY
18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY TODAY AND THEN TURN SOUTHERLY AFTER
00Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 260925
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
225 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.  CROSS-SECTIONS
STILL SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE MTNS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL LAPSES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THRU THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN.  MEANWHILE
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL SO EXPECT BLOWING SNOW MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FT THUS WILL EXTEND ADVISORY THRU NOON.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NERN CO REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL BANDED PCPN THRU
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
FOCUS ENE OF A GREELEY TO LIMON LINE. WEAK UPSLOPE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE MAY LEAD TO SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS WELL THRU MID
MORNING. BY MIDDAY SHOULD PCPN CHANCES END OVER THE PLAINS. AS FOR
HIGHS THERE COULD BE QUITE A RANGE OVER NERN CO WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER WHILE FURTHER NE OVER THE PLAINS HIGHS
STAY IN THE 30S.

FOR TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF A FEW -SHSN IN THE MTNS THIS EVENING IT
SHOULD BE DRY.  A MTN WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH CROSS-MTN
FLOW IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE.  THUS WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
MTNS AND FOOTHILL AREAS BUT SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BLO HIGH WIND
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.  FOR THURSDAY...A DRYING AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASING AT MOUNTAIN
TOP THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH LACK OF MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY
EXPECT MUCH OF THE HIGHER WINDS TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
PASSES AND HIGHER EAST SLOPES WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
UNDER A VERY DRY AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER EAST SLOPES WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH BUT
AGAIN HIGHER WINDS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
READINGS FLIRTING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND POSSIBLE
RECORD HIGHS IF WE GET ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY UNDER STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

FOR SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROF SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WHICH SENDS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE
IN THE DAY. THE RESULT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.

BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THE GFS SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE. ON THE OTHER
HAND THE EUROPEAN HAS A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SOME EMBEDDED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

MAY SEE SOME SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THRU ABOUT 14Z HOWEVER NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AROUND
15Z WITH LIGHT ELY WINDS. BY EARLY THIS AFTN MAY SEE A WK DENVER
CYCLONE DVLP WITH VARIABLE WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. BY
EARLY THIS EVENING WINDS SHOULD BECOME DRAINAGE AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 260925
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
225 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.  CROSS-SECTIONS
STILL SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE MTNS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL LAPSES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THRU THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN.  MEANWHILE
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL SO EXPECT BLOWING SNOW MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FT THUS WILL EXTEND ADVISORY THRU NOON.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NERN CO REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL BANDED PCPN THRU
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
FOCUS ENE OF A GREELEY TO LIMON LINE. WEAK UPSLOPE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE MAY LEAD TO SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS WELL THRU MID
MORNING. BY MIDDAY SHOULD PCPN CHANCES END OVER THE PLAINS. AS FOR
HIGHS THERE COULD BE QUITE A RANGE OVER NERN CO WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER WHILE FURTHER NE OVER THE PLAINS HIGHS
STAY IN THE 30S.

FOR TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF A FEW -SHSN IN THE MTNS THIS EVENING IT
SHOULD BE DRY.  A MTN WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH CROSS-MTN
FLOW IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE.  THUS WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
MTNS AND FOOTHILL AREAS BUT SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BLO HIGH WIND
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.  FOR THURSDAY...A DRYING AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASING AT MOUNTAIN
TOP THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH LACK OF MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY
EXPECT MUCH OF THE HIGHER WINDS TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
PASSES AND HIGHER EAST SLOPES WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
UNDER A VERY DRY AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER EAST SLOPES WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH BUT
AGAIN HIGHER WINDS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
READINGS FLIRTING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND POSSIBLE
RECORD HIGHS IF WE GET ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY UNDER STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

FOR SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROF SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WHICH SENDS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE
IN THE DAY. THE RESULT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.

BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THE GFS SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE. ON THE OTHER
HAND THE EUROPEAN HAS A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SOME EMBEDDED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

MAY SEE SOME SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THRU ABOUT 14Z HOWEVER NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AROUND
15Z WITH LIGHT ELY WINDS. BY EARLY THIS AFTN MAY SEE A WK DENVER
CYCLONE DVLP WITH VARIABLE WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. BY
EARLY THIS EVENING WINDS SHOULD BECOME DRAINAGE AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...RPK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 260328
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
828 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 816 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CHANGE TO EVENING FORECAST WILL BE TO CANCEL THE REMAINDER OF
THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE FOOTHILLS. STILL EXPECT STRONG GUSTS
IN THE 40-55 MPH BUT NOT EXPECTING THE GUSTS TO 75 MPH NEEDED FOR
HIGH WINDS. WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH CONTINUED WINDY AND LIGHT SNOW CONDITIONS.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
THE DENVER AREA WITH SOME UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTENING AIRMASS OVER
THE PLAINS. RADAR SHOWING BANDED PRECIP OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WITH OBSERVATIONS SHOWING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BUT WILL BECOME ALL
SNOW LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MODELS STILL SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIP EAST OF THE DENVER AREA...WHICH IS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
NW-SE ORIENTED JET CORE. HAVE ALREADY BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND MAY NUDGE POPS UPWARDS A
BIT FURTHER WEST TOWARDS DENVER. EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MOUNTAIN WAVE NEVER BECAME VERY SHARP...THERE WAS SOME
AMPLIFICATION THAT PUSHED HIGH WINDS INTO THE FOOTHILLS BUT IT
STRUGGLED TO GET TO THE PLAINS. THE LOW/MID LEVEL GRADIENT HAS
JUST PEAKED AND SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING WITH A WEAKENING
INVERSION THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE STILL HAVE SOME HIGH WINDS IN
THE BOULDER COUNTY FOOTHILLS AND SOME OTHER SPOTS ARE CLOSE...AND
THESE COULD STILL COME UP A BIT AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT MOVE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS
ON THE PLAINS IS QUITE LOW NOW. EVEN IF THE SPEEDS INCREASE
AGAIN...THEY SHOULD NOT GET THAT STRONG. SO WE WILL DROP THE
WARNING FOR THE PLAINS ZONES AND CONTINUE IT IN THE FOOTHILLS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS LOOKING GOOD. SO FAR THE HEAVIEST SNOW
HAS BEEN JUST EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES AS
THE OROGRAPHIC SNOW HAS BEEN CARRIED DOWNWIND. THESE AREAS ARE UP
TO ABOUT 6 INCHES OF SNOW ALREADY...SO I WILL RAISE THE STORM
TOTAL ESTIMATE FOR THE FRONT RANGE TO 6 TO 12 INCHES. SNOW SHOULD
BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD STILL BE
SNOWING. I DID HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT
AS MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE NEAR THE FORECAST LOWS...HOWEVER
WITH THE SNOW...CLOUD COVER...AND DECENT WARM ADVECTION THEY WILL
LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY RISE IN THE
WINDIER AREAS.

LOOKING NORTHWARD...THERE IS A RIBBON OF SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL MONTANA ALL THE WAY DOWN TO SE WYOMING AND IT WILL
WIGGLE BACK AND FORTH AS IT DROPS PAST US TONIGHT. DESPITE A
GENERAL TREND TO LIFT THE JET SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...MODELS INSIST
THAT A LOWER LEVEL PRESSURE SURGE WILL ALLOW THE SHOWER BAND TO
SHIFT WESTWARD FOR A WHILE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS DOES APPEAR TO
BE HAPPENING IN WYOMING. THIS WAS ALREADY IN OUR FORECAST WITH
SHOWERS BACKING INTO DENVER OR CLOSE TO IT LATE TONIGHT. NOT SURE
ABOUT THE TIMING...THE SHOWERS ARE CLOSE TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER
NOW BUT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE SURGE IS JUST COMING OUT OF CENTRAL
WYOMING. SO THERE MAY NEED TO BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DETAILS
BUT A DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE PLAINS AND POSSIBLY INTO
DENVER LOOKS ALRIGHT. SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW BUT COULD ACCUMULATE AN
INCH OR TWO WHERE THE BAND PERSISTS...MOST LIKELY EAST OF DENVER.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME REDUCTION IN THE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...ALL THE WEATHER GOES AWAY AS THE JET LIFTS
NORTHEAST. COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS THOUGH THIS
SHOULD BE PASSING IN THE MORNING. ALSO SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
HANGING ON BUT IN A DRYING STABILIZING AIRMASS AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
PRETTY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY THURSDAY...STRONG NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND FAR NE PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY. NO ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING WEDNESDAY. WITH SURFACE
LEE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST AND STRONG DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THE PLAINS WILL SEE INCREASED TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLE LOWER 70S IN SOME AREAS. FOR WINDS
SPEEDS EVEN WITH THE MOUNTAIN WAVE MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING
SIGNIFICANT WINDS WITH COMPONENT ALONG REACHING INTO THE MID 40S
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE MOUNTAIN WAVE BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED AS COMPONENT ALONG WINDS AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL INCREASE
TO 60 KTS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR A SIGNIFICANT WAVE CLOUD TO FORM SO PARTLY CLOUDY TO SUNNY
SKIES COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL AID IN GETTING THE
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR FRIDAY. THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR FRIDAY IS 72 SET BACK IN 1901 SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THE MODELS DEVELOP FOR A POTENTIAL RECORD.

FOR SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH MOISTURE
ISOLATED TO THE UPPER LEVELS SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. INCREASED
WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S.

ON SUNDAY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON BRINGING IN COOLER AIR DROPPING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS NOT
SHOWING MUCH MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW WITH JUST SOME INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. FLOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE MORE SW WITH LITTLE MOISTURE EXPECTED SO
WILL KEEP ANY POPS OUT OF THAT REGION AS WELL.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE PACIFIC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT WILL START TO INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO
MOVE NW. COMPONENT ALONG WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP ARE FORECASTED TO
BE 50 TO 55 KTS BY MONDAY EVENING. MOISTURE STILL LACKING SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 816 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS JUST MOVED THROUGH KDEN AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH BJC/APA BETWEEN 04-05Z AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. TIMING
IS A BIT AHEAD OF MODEL GUIDANCE SO WILL NUDGE CHANCES OF SNOW
EARLIER THEN IN CURRENT FORECAST. STILL ANY ACCUMULATION MAINLY
EAST OF THE TERMINALS BUT COULD BE UP TO A HALF INCH IF BANDED
PRECIP SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN FORECAST. LOWER CEILINGSEXPECTED...MAINLY
IN THE 1000-2000FT AGL LAYER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ031-033-
034.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 252254
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
354 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MOUNTAIN WAVE NEVER BECAME VERY SHARP...THERE WAS SOME
AMPLIFICATION THAT PUSHED HIGH WINDS INTO THE FOOTHILLS BUT IT
STRUGGLED TO GET TO THE PLAINS. THE LOW/MID LEVEL GRADIENT HAS
JUST PEAKED AND SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING WITH A WEAKENING
INVERSION THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE STILL HAVE SOME HIGH WINDS IN
THE BOULDER COUNTY FOOTHILLS AND SOME OTHER SPOTS ARE CLOSE...AND
THESE COULD STILL COME UP A BIT AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT MOVE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS
ON THE PLAINS IS QUITE LOW NOW. EVEN IF THE SPEEDS INCREASE
AGAIN...THEY SHOULD NOT GET THAT STRONG. SO WE WILL DROP THE
WARNING FOR THE PLAINS ZONES AND CONTINUE IT IN THE FOOTHILLS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS LOOKING GOOD. SO FAR THE HEAVIEST SNOW
HAS BEEN JUST EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES AS
THE OROGRAPHIC SNOW HAS BEEN CARRIED DOWNWIND. THESE AREAS ARE UP
TO ABOUT 6 INCHES OF SNOW ALREADY...SO I WILL RAISE THE STORM
TOTAL ESTIMATE FOR THE FRONT RANGE TO 6 TO 12 INCHES. SNOW SHOULD
BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD STILL BE
SNOWING. I DID HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT
AS MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE NEAR THE FORECAST LOWS...HOWEVER
WITH THE SNOW...CLOUD COVER...AND DECENT WARM ADVECTION THEY WILL
LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY RISE IN THE
WINDIER AREAS.

LOOKING NORTHWARD...THERE IS A RIBBON OF SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL MONTANA ALL THE WAY DOWN TO SE WYOMING AND IT WILL
WIGGLE BACK AND FORTH AS IT DROPS PAST US TONIGHT. DESPITE A
GENERAL TREND TO LIFT THE JET SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...MODELS INSIST
THAT A LOWER LEVEL PRESSURE SURGE WILL ALLOW THE SHOWER BAND TO
SHIFT WESTWARD FOR A WHILE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS DOES APPEAR TO
BE HAPPENING IN WYOMING. THIS WAS ALREADY IN OUR FORECAST WITH
SHOWERS BACKING INTO DENVER OR CLOSE TO IT LATE TONIGHT. NOT SURE
ABOUT THE TIMING...THE SHOWERS ARE CLOSE TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER
NOW BUT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE SURGE IS JUST COMING OUT OF CENTRAL
WYOMING. SO THERE MAY NEED TO BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DETAILS
BUT A DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE PLAINS AND POSSIBLY INTO
DENVER LOOKS ALRIGHT. SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW BUT COULD ACCUMULATE AN
INCH OR TWO WHERE THE BAND PERSISTS...MOST LIKELY EAST OF DENVER.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME REDUCTION IN THE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...ALL THE WEATHER GOES AWAY AS THE JET LIFTS
NORTHEAST. COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS THOUGH THIS
SHOULD BE PASSING IN THE MORNING. ALSO SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
HANGING ON BUT IN A DRYING STABILIZING AIRMASS AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
PRETTY LIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY THURSDAY...STRONG NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND FAR NE PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY. NO ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING WEDNESDAY. WITH SURFACE
LEE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST AND STRONG DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THE PLAINS WILL SEE INCREASED TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLE LOWER 70S IN SOME AREAS. FOR WINDS
SPEEDS EVEN WITH THE MOUNTAIN WAVE MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING
SIGNIFICANT WINDS WITH COMPONENT ALONG REACHING INTO THE MID 40S
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE MOUNTAIN WAVE BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED AS COMPONENT ALONG WINDS AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL INCREASE
TO 60 KTS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR A SIGNIFICANT WAVE CLOUD TO FORM SO PARTLY CLOUDY TO SUNNY
SKIES COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL AID IN GETTING THE
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR FRIDAY. THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR FRIDAY IS 72 SET BACK IN 1901 SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THE MODELS DEVELOP FOR A POTENTIAL RECORD.

FOR SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH MOISTURE
ISOLATED TO THE UPPER LEVELS SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. INCREASED
WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S.

ON SUNDAY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON BRINGING IN COOLER AIR DROPPING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS NOT
SHOWING MUCH MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW WITH JUST SOME INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. FLOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE MORE SW WITH LITTLE MOISTURE EXPECTED SO
WILL KEEP ANY POPS OUT OF THAT REGION AS WELL.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE PACIFIC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT WILL START TO INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO
MOVE NW. COMPONENT ALONG WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP ARE FORECASTED TO
BE 50 TO 55 KTS BY MONDAY EVENING. MOISTURE STILL LACKING SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET MUCH STRONGER...AND WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER
DARK. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z...ANY ACCUMULATION IN THE DENVER AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY 15Z AND KDEN APPROACHES SHOULD BE VISUAL BY
18Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ035-036.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ031-033-
034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD





000
FXUS65 KBOU 252254
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
354 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MOUNTAIN WAVE NEVER BECAME VERY SHARP...THERE WAS SOME
AMPLIFICATION THAT PUSHED HIGH WINDS INTO THE FOOTHILLS BUT IT
STRUGGLED TO GET TO THE PLAINS. THE LOW/MID LEVEL GRADIENT HAS
JUST PEAKED AND SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING WITH A WEAKENING
INVERSION THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE STILL HAVE SOME HIGH WINDS IN
THE BOULDER COUNTY FOOTHILLS AND SOME OTHER SPOTS ARE CLOSE...AND
THESE COULD STILL COME UP A BIT AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT MOVE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS
ON THE PLAINS IS QUITE LOW NOW. EVEN IF THE SPEEDS INCREASE
AGAIN...THEY SHOULD NOT GET THAT STRONG. SO WE WILL DROP THE
WARNING FOR THE PLAINS ZONES AND CONTINUE IT IN THE FOOTHILLS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS LOOKING GOOD. SO FAR THE HEAVIEST SNOW
HAS BEEN JUST EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES AS
THE OROGRAPHIC SNOW HAS BEEN CARRIED DOWNWIND. THESE AREAS ARE UP
TO ABOUT 6 INCHES OF SNOW ALREADY...SO I WILL RAISE THE STORM
TOTAL ESTIMATE FOR THE FRONT RANGE TO 6 TO 12 INCHES. SNOW SHOULD
BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD STILL BE
SNOWING. I DID HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT
AS MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE NEAR THE FORECAST LOWS...HOWEVER
WITH THE SNOW...CLOUD COVER...AND DECENT WARM ADVECTION THEY WILL
LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY RISE IN THE
WINDIER AREAS.

LOOKING NORTHWARD...THERE IS A RIBBON OF SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL MONTANA ALL THE WAY DOWN TO SE WYOMING AND IT WILL
WIGGLE BACK AND FORTH AS IT DROPS PAST US TONIGHT. DESPITE A
GENERAL TREND TO LIFT THE JET SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...MODELS INSIST
THAT A LOWER LEVEL PRESSURE SURGE WILL ALLOW THE SHOWER BAND TO
SHIFT WESTWARD FOR A WHILE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS DOES APPEAR TO
BE HAPPENING IN WYOMING. THIS WAS ALREADY IN OUR FORECAST WITH
SHOWERS BACKING INTO DENVER OR CLOSE TO IT LATE TONIGHT. NOT SURE
ABOUT THE TIMING...THE SHOWERS ARE CLOSE TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER
NOW BUT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE SURGE IS JUST COMING OUT OF CENTRAL
WYOMING. SO THERE MAY NEED TO BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DETAILS
BUT A DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE PLAINS AND POSSIBLY INTO
DENVER LOOKS ALRIGHT. SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW BUT COULD ACCUMULATE AN
INCH OR TWO WHERE THE BAND PERSISTS...MOST LIKELY EAST OF DENVER.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME REDUCTION IN THE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...ALL THE WEATHER GOES AWAY AS THE JET LIFTS
NORTHEAST. COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS THOUGH THIS
SHOULD BE PASSING IN THE MORNING. ALSO SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
HANGING ON BUT IN A DRYING STABILIZING AIRMASS AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
PRETTY LIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY THURSDAY...STRONG NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND FAR NE PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY. NO ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING WEDNESDAY. WITH SURFACE
LEE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST AND STRONG DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THE PLAINS WILL SEE INCREASED TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLE LOWER 70S IN SOME AREAS. FOR WINDS
SPEEDS EVEN WITH THE MOUNTAIN WAVE MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING
SIGNIFICANT WINDS WITH COMPONENT ALONG REACHING INTO THE MID 40S
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE MOUNTAIN WAVE BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED AS COMPONENT ALONG WINDS AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL INCREASE
TO 60 KTS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR A SIGNIFICANT WAVE CLOUD TO FORM SO PARTLY CLOUDY TO SUNNY
SKIES COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL AID IN GETTING THE
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR FRIDAY. THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR FRIDAY IS 72 SET BACK IN 1901 SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THE MODELS DEVELOP FOR A POTENTIAL RECORD.

FOR SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH MOISTURE
ISOLATED TO THE UPPER LEVELS SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. INCREASED
WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S.

ON SUNDAY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON BRINGING IN COOLER AIR DROPPING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS NOT
SHOWING MUCH MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW WITH JUST SOME INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. FLOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE MORE SW WITH LITTLE MOISTURE EXPECTED SO
WILL KEEP ANY POPS OUT OF THAT REGION AS WELL.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE PACIFIC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT WILL START TO INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO
MOVE NW. COMPONENT ALONG WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP ARE FORECASTED TO
BE 50 TO 55 KTS BY MONDAY EVENING. MOISTURE STILL LACKING SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET MUCH STRONGER...AND WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER
DARK. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z...ANY ACCUMULATION IN THE DENVER AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY 15Z AND KDEN APPROACHES SHOULD BE VISUAL BY
18Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ035-036.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ031-033-
034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




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