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000
FXUS65 KBOU 292201
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
401 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME ORGANIZED AS THE FRONT EDGE OF THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWERS RAN INTO THE EASTERLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS.
EXPECT THIS AREA TO REMAIN THE FOCUS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
SPREADING EAST INTO THE INFLOW. ALSO EXPECT A NEW AREA OF STORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE
EASTERLIES COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW FROM THE CURRENT CONVECTION
PUSHES UPHILL INTO THE INCOMING SHOWER AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT IS HEAVIER THAN WAS FORECAST AS THE
SECOND AREA COULD SPREAD BACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD HIT
THE AREA FROM DENVER NORTH TO THE STATE LINE HARD THIS EVENING.
TRENDED FORECAST THIS WAY...THOUGH STILL NOT SURE WE WILL HAVE THE
SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE UPSLOPE BEYOND THE CURRENT TRENDS MENTIONED
ABOVE. FOR THE TIME BEING...RAISED FORECAST RAINFALL A BIT...NOW
SHOWING 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES INSTEAD OF THE 1 TO 2 THAT WE HAD...AND
RAISED POPS FURTHER.

FOR WEDNESDAY STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS IT WILL BE COOLER AND THERE
WILL BE A BIT LESS OF EVERYTHING TO WORK WITH. SOME OF THE MODELS
GENERATE A SUBSTANTIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION THAT DROPS FROM SE
WYOMING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE CITIES WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN AT THAT TIME...IT
WILL BE DRYING FURTHER EAST AND LATER IN THE DAY. WE ALREADY HAD
PRETTY HIGH POPS AND QPF FOR WEDNESDAY SO I HAVE LEFT THAT ALONE
AND WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH RUNNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. I
SUSPECT THE THREAT MAY BE LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE COULD
HAVE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY GIVEN WHAT WILL
BE HAPPENING OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SOME DECREASE IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS FORCING FROM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
CFWA AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTH. BEST CHANCE
FOR STORMS TO BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE. STORMS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE FOR PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT
FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE DECREASING. THUS WILL NOT EXTEND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT...AIRMASS TO
CONTINUE TO STABILIZE AND BECOME A BIT DRIER WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ON THURSDAY...UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS GREAT BASIN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO.
MODELS KEEP SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND RH PROGS SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS DURING
THE MORNING...BUT FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE IN GRIDS. OTHERWISE A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE MORNING...THEN STORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THOUGH AIRMASS TO BE A BIT
DRIER...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP STORMS MOVING...LIMITING
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. STILL...BURN AREAS AND LOCATIONS WHICH
RECEIVED DECENT RAIN FROM THE RECENT STORMS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. AIRMASS TO BE A BIT WARMER THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING EAST
INTO COLORADO WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TO
BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SOME SLOW MOVING STORMS. TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA...WITH
DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO REMAIN A
THREAT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MODELS
SHIFT THE RIDGE EAST AND BRING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. SOME DECREASE IN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE...STILL ENOUGH FOR
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS AROUND THE DENVER AREA THIS
EVENING...LIKELY GIVING WAY TO A STEADIER RAIN LATER TONIGHT.
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED IFR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH INSTRUMENT
APPROACHES WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEEDED AT KDEN DUE TO CEILINGS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ONE OR MORE LARGE AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT.
FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...LIKELY SPREADING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF THE
STORMS TO PRODUCE 1-2 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES...BUT THEY
COULD BE SUSTAINED FOR A LONG TIME. END RESULT SHOULD BE MINOR
FLOODING IN MANY AREAS AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON THE
LARGER RIVERS INCLUDING THE SOUTH PLATTE. RIVER FORECASTERS ARE
EVALUATING THE SITUATION. IF THE AREA CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS THIS WAY THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ033>047-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
HYDROLOGY...D-L/GIMMESTAD





000
FXUS65 KBOU 292201
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
401 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME ORGANIZED AS THE FRONT EDGE OF THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWERS RAN INTO THE EASTERLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS.
EXPECT THIS AREA TO REMAIN THE FOCUS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
SPREADING EAST INTO THE INFLOW. ALSO EXPECT A NEW AREA OF STORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE
EASTERLIES COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW FROM THE CURRENT CONVECTION
PUSHES UPHILL INTO THE INCOMING SHOWER AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT IS HEAVIER THAN WAS FORECAST AS THE
SECOND AREA COULD SPREAD BACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD HIT
THE AREA FROM DENVER NORTH TO THE STATE LINE HARD THIS EVENING.
TRENDED FORECAST THIS WAY...THOUGH STILL NOT SURE WE WILL HAVE THE
SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE UPSLOPE BEYOND THE CURRENT TRENDS MENTIONED
ABOVE. FOR THE TIME BEING...RAISED FORECAST RAINFALL A BIT...NOW
SHOWING 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES INSTEAD OF THE 1 TO 2 THAT WE HAD...AND
RAISED POPS FURTHER.

FOR WEDNESDAY STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS IT WILL BE COOLER AND THERE
WILL BE A BIT LESS OF EVERYTHING TO WORK WITH. SOME OF THE MODELS
GENERATE A SUBSTANTIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION THAT DROPS FROM SE
WYOMING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE CITIES WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN AT THAT TIME...IT
WILL BE DRYING FURTHER EAST AND LATER IN THE DAY. WE ALREADY HAD
PRETTY HIGH POPS AND QPF FOR WEDNESDAY SO I HAVE LEFT THAT ALONE
AND WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH RUNNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. I
SUSPECT THE THREAT MAY BE LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE COULD
HAVE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY GIVEN WHAT WILL
BE HAPPENING OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SOME DECREASE IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS FORCING FROM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
CFWA AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTH. BEST CHANCE
FOR STORMS TO BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE. STORMS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE FOR PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT
FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE DECREASING. THUS WILL NOT EXTEND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT...AIRMASS TO
CONTINUE TO STABILIZE AND BECOME A BIT DRIER WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ON THURSDAY...UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS GREAT BASIN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO.
MODELS KEEP SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND RH PROGS SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS DURING
THE MORNING...BUT FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE IN GRIDS. OTHERWISE A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE MORNING...THEN STORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THOUGH AIRMASS TO BE A BIT
DRIER...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP STORMS MOVING...LIMITING
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. STILL...BURN AREAS AND LOCATIONS WHICH
RECEIVED DECENT RAIN FROM THE RECENT STORMS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. AIRMASS TO BE A BIT WARMER THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING EAST
INTO COLORADO WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TO
BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SOME SLOW MOVING STORMS. TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA...WITH
DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO REMAIN A
THREAT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MODELS
SHIFT THE RIDGE EAST AND BRING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. SOME DECREASE IN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE...STILL ENOUGH FOR
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS AROUND THE DENVER AREA THIS
EVENING...LIKELY GIVING WAY TO A STEADIER RAIN LATER TONIGHT.
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED IFR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH INSTRUMENT
APPROACHES WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEEDED AT KDEN DUE TO CEILINGS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ONE OR MORE LARGE AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT.
FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...LIKELY SPREADING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF THE
STORMS TO PRODUCE 1-2 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES...BUT THEY
COULD BE SUSTAINED FOR A LONG TIME. END RESULT SHOULD BE MINOR
FLOODING IN MANY AREAS AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON THE
LARGER RIVERS INCLUDING THE SOUTH PLATTE. RIVER FORECASTERS ARE
EVALUATING THE SITUATION. IF THE AREA CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS THIS WAY THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ033>047-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
HYDROLOGY...D-L/GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 291730
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1130 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...MAINLY RAISING
POPS IN MOST PLACES. SHORTWAVE TIMING BECOMING MORE EVIDENT AND
THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE THE AREA OF LIFT NOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF COLORADO MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN MORE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. FOOTHILLS CONVECTION STARTING AHEAD OF THIS IN AN
AIRMASS THAT IS A LITTLE DRIER...PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE WEAKLY
CAPPED. NOT SURE IF THE EARLY CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD OR NOT...THE SYNOPTICALLY FORCED BLOB WILL BE A COUPLE OF
HOURS BEHIND IT REACHING DENVER IN THE MID AFTERNOON.

EXPECT THAT THE MAIN FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED
STATIONARY STORMS DUE TO BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...BUT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A FOOTHILLS FOCUS WITH WEAK EASTERLY WINDS STARTING
TO DEVELOP AS EXPECTED. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS BEHIND THE MAIN BLOB DURING
THE NIGHT...BUT IT IS RATHER RANDOM AND DISORGANIZED. I DO NOT
WANT TO DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF PROBLEMS IN THE FOOTHILLS
TONIGHT AS THE WIND PROFILE WILL BE GREAT FOR STATIONARY OR
TRAINING STORMS AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE BETTER WITH A
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER I AM NOT SEEING SIGNS OF AN
ORGANIZED LARGE SCALE EVENT AT THIS TIME. THINGS TO WATCH FOR AS
THE DAY GOES ON WOULD INCLUDE A BETTER LARGE MESOSCALE WIND FIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND/OR ORGANIZED OUTFLOW FROM
CONVECTION IN NE COLORADO OR AREAS JUST NORTH OF US. THERE IS A
LITTLE BIT OF PRESSURE RISE IN THE EXISTING RAINBAND OVER WESTERN
WYOMING...IT WOULD NEED TO AMPLIFY TO PRODUCE STRONGER UPSLOPE
WHICH COULD HAPPEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FCST THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT IS RATHER COMPLICATED.  THERE IS A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SWRN UTAH WHICH IS MOVING NNE
WITH A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY OVER NERN UTAH.  OVERALL THIS
FEATURE OVER NERN UTAH MAY BE THE ONE THAT IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE
SLOWLY AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND INTO NRN CO BY TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL BE OVER SERN CO AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO NRN CO THIS EVENING.

SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP BY MIDDAY IN THE MTNS AND THEN IN AND
NR THE FOOTHILLS BY EARLY TO MID AFTN AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS
BY LATE AFTN.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO
1.25 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTN WITH VALUES POSSIBLY UP TO 1.5 INCHES
TONIGHT OVER NERN CO IF GFS IS CORRECT.  THUS ANY STORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTN THRU THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT IF A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS GOING TO DVLP WILL
HAVE TO GET WRM CORE RAIN PROCESSES TO TAKE OVER FM MID EVENING THRU
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  THERE IS SOME HINT THAT A WK 700 MB
CIRCULATION WILL OCCUR WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS TONIGHT
AND WILL COMBINE WITH WK FNT MOVING INTO NERN CO TO ENHANCE ELY LOW
LVL FLOW IN AND NR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO FAR THE NAM...ECMWF AND
THE SREF PLUMES ARE FOCUSING ON AREAS FM BOULDER COUNTY INTO LARIMER
COUNTY WHILE THE GFS HAS A WOUND UP 700 MB CIRCULATION CENTER OVER
THE ERN PLAINS WHICH FOCUSES THE HEAVIEST RAINS AWAY FM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  NATURALLY IF THE WRM RAIN PROCESSES GET GOING AFTER SUNSET
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD CAN ADD UP QUICKLY AS WE SAW
LAST SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY IS GOING TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK
AND MAYBE THE WETTEST. THE MOIST AIRMASS IS GOING TO REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE STATE WITH EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UP
TO ALMOST 600 MB. QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC DIAGNOSTICS FROM EACH OF THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOW AT LEAST WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE UPSLOPE FLOW
TO CONTINUE LIFTING THE AIRMASS...RELEASING THE INSTABILITY
THROUGH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
FROM THE NAM SHOW A SATURATED AND MOIST ADIABATIC
AIRMASS...REMINISCENT OF THE SHAPE SEEN DURING WINTER STORMS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE AN INCH
WITH AN ALMOST 8000 FOOT DEEP WARM LAYER. ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRESENT. WILL CARRY THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS THE MONSOONAL FLOW KEEPS MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE VERY COMPLICATED BUT
WEAK AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AND NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MAY
SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM
THE GREAT BASIN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SETS UP SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...LADEN WITH GULF
MOISTURE...ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE
AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS THE RESULT. BURN SCARS AND AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL
ON CONSECUTIVE DAYS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE DENVER AREA
AROUND MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF AN EARLIER
STORM OR WIND SHIFT. AFTER THAT EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LOCALIZED IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINS MAY FOCUS. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS. IF THE
WARM RAIN PROCESSES KICK IN AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT COULD OCCUR IN SOME AREAS
WITH EVEN HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND MOST OF NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ033>047-049.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
HYDROLOGY...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 291730
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1130 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...MAINLY RAISING
POPS IN MOST PLACES. SHORTWAVE TIMING BECOMING MORE EVIDENT AND
THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE THE AREA OF LIFT NOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF COLORADO MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN MORE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. FOOTHILLS CONVECTION STARTING AHEAD OF THIS IN AN
AIRMASS THAT IS A LITTLE DRIER...PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE WEAKLY
CAPPED. NOT SURE IF THE EARLY CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD OR NOT...THE SYNOPTICALLY FORCED BLOB WILL BE A COUPLE OF
HOURS BEHIND IT REACHING DENVER IN THE MID AFTERNOON.

EXPECT THAT THE MAIN FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED
STATIONARY STORMS DUE TO BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...BUT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A FOOTHILLS FOCUS WITH WEAK EASTERLY WINDS STARTING
TO DEVELOP AS EXPECTED. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS BEHIND THE MAIN BLOB DURING
THE NIGHT...BUT IT IS RATHER RANDOM AND DISORGANIZED. I DO NOT
WANT TO DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF PROBLEMS IN THE FOOTHILLS
TONIGHT AS THE WIND PROFILE WILL BE GREAT FOR STATIONARY OR
TRAINING STORMS AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE BETTER WITH A
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER I AM NOT SEEING SIGNS OF AN
ORGANIZED LARGE SCALE EVENT AT THIS TIME. THINGS TO WATCH FOR AS
THE DAY GOES ON WOULD INCLUDE A BETTER LARGE MESOSCALE WIND FIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND/OR ORGANIZED OUTFLOW FROM
CONVECTION IN NE COLORADO OR AREAS JUST NORTH OF US. THERE IS A
LITTLE BIT OF PRESSURE RISE IN THE EXISTING RAINBAND OVER WESTERN
WYOMING...IT WOULD NEED TO AMPLIFY TO PRODUCE STRONGER UPSLOPE
WHICH COULD HAPPEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FCST THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT IS RATHER COMPLICATED.  THERE IS A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SWRN UTAH WHICH IS MOVING NNE
WITH A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY OVER NERN UTAH.  OVERALL THIS
FEATURE OVER NERN UTAH MAY BE THE ONE THAT IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE
SLOWLY AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND INTO NRN CO BY TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL BE OVER SERN CO AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO NRN CO THIS EVENING.

SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP BY MIDDAY IN THE MTNS AND THEN IN AND
NR THE FOOTHILLS BY EARLY TO MID AFTN AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS
BY LATE AFTN.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO
1.25 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTN WITH VALUES POSSIBLY UP TO 1.5 INCHES
TONIGHT OVER NERN CO IF GFS IS CORRECT.  THUS ANY STORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTN THRU THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT IF A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS GOING TO DVLP WILL
HAVE TO GET WRM CORE RAIN PROCESSES TO TAKE OVER FM MID EVENING THRU
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  THERE IS SOME HINT THAT A WK 700 MB
CIRCULATION WILL OCCUR WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS TONIGHT
AND WILL COMBINE WITH WK FNT MOVING INTO NERN CO TO ENHANCE ELY LOW
LVL FLOW IN AND NR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO FAR THE NAM...ECMWF AND
THE SREF PLUMES ARE FOCUSING ON AREAS FM BOULDER COUNTY INTO LARIMER
COUNTY WHILE THE GFS HAS A WOUND UP 700 MB CIRCULATION CENTER OVER
THE ERN PLAINS WHICH FOCUSES THE HEAVIEST RAINS AWAY FM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  NATURALLY IF THE WRM RAIN PROCESSES GET GOING AFTER SUNSET
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD CAN ADD UP QUICKLY AS WE SAW
LAST SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY IS GOING TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK
AND MAYBE THE WETTEST. THE MOIST AIRMASS IS GOING TO REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE STATE WITH EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UP
TO ALMOST 600 MB. QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC DIAGNOSTICS FROM EACH OF THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOW AT LEAST WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE UPSLOPE FLOW
TO CONTINUE LIFTING THE AIRMASS...RELEASING THE INSTABILITY
THROUGH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
FROM THE NAM SHOW A SATURATED AND MOIST ADIABATIC
AIRMASS...REMINISCENT OF THE SHAPE SEEN DURING WINTER STORMS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE AN INCH
WITH AN ALMOST 8000 FOOT DEEP WARM LAYER. ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRESENT. WILL CARRY THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS THE MONSOONAL FLOW KEEPS MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE VERY COMPLICATED BUT
WEAK AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AND NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MAY
SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM
THE GREAT BASIN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SETS UP SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...LADEN WITH GULF
MOISTURE...ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE
AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS THE RESULT. BURN SCARS AND AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL
ON CONSECUTIVE DAYS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE DENVER AREA
AROUND MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF AN EARLIER
STORM OR WIND SHIFT. AFTER THAT EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LOCALIZED IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINS MAY FOCUS. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS. IF THE
WARM RAIN PROCESSES KICK IN AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT COULD OCCUR IN SOME AREAS
WITH EVEN HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND MOST OF NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ033>047-049.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
HYDROLOGY...RPK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 291003
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FCST THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT IS RATHER COMPLICATED.  THERE IS A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SWRN UTAH WHICH IS MOVING NNE
WITH A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY OVER NERN UTAH.  OVERALL THIS
FEATURE OVER NERN UTAH MAY BE THE ONE THAT IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE
SLOWLY AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND INTO NRN CO BY TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL BE OVER SERN CO AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO NRN CO THIS EVENING.

SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP BY MIDDAY IN THE MTNS AND THEN IN AND
NR THE FOOTHILLS BY EARLY TO MID AFTN AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS
BY LATE AFTN.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO
1.25 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTN WITH VALUES POSSIBLY UP TO 1.5 INCHES
TONIGHT OVER NERN CO IF GFS IS CORRECT.  THUS ANY STORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTN THRU THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT IF A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS GOING TO DVLP WILL
HAVE TO GET WRM CORE RAIN PROCESSES TO TAKE OVER FM MID EVENING THRU
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  THERE IS SOME HINT THAT A WK 700 MB
CIRCULATION WILL OCCUR WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS TONIGHT
AND WILL COMBINE WITH WK FNT MOVING INTO NERN CO TO ENHANCE ELY LOW
LVL FLOW IN AND NR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO FAR THE NAM...ECMWF AND
THE SREF PLUMES ARE FOCUSING ON AREAS FM BOULDER COUNTY INTO LARIMER
COUNTY WHILE THE GFS HAS A WOUND UP 700 MB CIRCULATION CENTER OVER
THE ERN PLAINS WHICH FOCUSES THE HEAVIEST RAINS AWAY FM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  NATURALLY IF THE WRM RAIN PROCESSES GET GOING AFTER SUNSET
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD CAN ADD UP QUICKLY AS WE SAW
LAST SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY IS GOING TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK
AND MAYBE THE WETTEST. THE MOIST AIRMASS IS GOING TO REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE STATE WITH EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UP
TO ALMOST 600 MB. QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC DIAGNOSTICS FROM EACH OF THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOW AT LEAST WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE UPSLOPE FLOW
TO CONTINUE LIFTING THE AIRMASS...RELEASING THE INSTABILITY
THROUGH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
FROM THE NAM SHOW A SATURATED AND MOIST ADIABATIC
AIRMASS...REMINISCENT OF THE SHAPE SEEN DURING WINTER STORMS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE AN INCH
WITH AN ALMOST 8000 FOOT DEEP WARM LAYER. ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRESENT. WILL CARRY THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS THE MONSOONAL FLOW KEEPS MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE VERY COMPLICATED BUT
WEAK AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AND NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MAY
SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM
THE GREAT BASIN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SETS UP SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...LADEN WITH GULF
MOISTURE...ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE
AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS THE RESULT. BURN SCARS AND AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL
ON CONSECUTIVE DAYS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WILL TREND WIND FCST TOWARDS HRRR THRU MID AFTN WITH WINDS BECOMING
MORE ELY BY 18Z.  AFT 21Z MAY SEE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM FOOTHILLS
CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS TRIGGERING SCT TSTMS.  IF THE AIRPORT TAKES A
DIRECT HIT THEN COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILTIES UP TO AN HOUR AS STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING.  FOR
TONIGHT NOT SURE HOW THINGS ARE GOING TO EVOLVE.  COULD SEE A STEADY
RAIN EVENT DVLP WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT`S STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS MAY FOCUS. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE FROM
1 TO 2 INCHES WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS. IF THE WARM
RAIN PROCESSES KICK IN AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN A
MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT COULD OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WITH
EVEN HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND MOST OF NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033>047-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 291003
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FCST THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT IS RATHER COMPLICATED.  THERE IS A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SWRN UTAH WHICH IS MOVING NNE
WITH A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY OVER NERN UTAH.  OVERALL THIS
FEATURE OVER NERN UTAH MAY BE THE ONE THAT IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE
SLOWLY AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND INTO NRN CO BY TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL BE OVER SERN CO AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO NRN CO THIS EVENING.

SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP BY MIDDAY IN THE MTNS AND THEN IN AND
NR THE FOOTHILLS BY EARLY TO MID AFTN AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS
BY LATE AFTN.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO
1.25 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTN WITH VALUES POSSIBLY UP TO 1.5 INCHES
TONIGHT OVER NERN CO IF GFS IS CORRECT.  THUS ANY STORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTN THRU THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT IF A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS GOING TO DVLP WILL
HAVE TO GET WRM CORE RAIN PROCESSES TO TAKE OVER FM MID EVENING THRU
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  THERE IS SOME HINT THAT A WK 700 MB
CIRCULATION WILL OCCUR WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS TONIGHT
AND WILL COMBINE WITH WK FNT MOVING INTO NERN CO TO ENHANCE ELY LOW
LVL FLOW IN AND NR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO FAR THE NAM...ECMWF AND
THE SREF PLUMES ARE FOCUSING ON AREAS FM BOULDER COUNTY INTO LARIMER
COUNTY WHILE THE GFS HAS A WOUND UP 700 MB CIRCULATION CENTER OVER
THE ERN PLAINS WHICH FOCUSES THE HEAVIEST RAINS AWAY FM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  NATURALLY IF THE WRM RAIN PROCESSES GET GOING AFTER SUNSET
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD CAN ADD UP QUICKLY AS WE SAW
LAST SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY IS GOING TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK
AND MAYBE THE WETTEST. THE MOIST AIRMASS IS GOING TO REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE STATE WITH EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UP
TO ALMOST 600 MB. QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC DIAGNOSTICS FROM EACH OF THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOW AT LEAST WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE UPSLOPE FLOW
TO CONTINUE LIFTING THE AIRMASS...RELEASING THE INSTABILITY
THROUGH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
FROM THE NAM SHOW A SATURATED AND MOIST ADIABATIC
AIRMASS...REMINISCENT OF THE SHAPE SEEN DURING WINTER STORMS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE AN INCH
WITH AN ALMOST 8000 FOOT DEEP WARM LAYER. ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRESENT. WILL CARRY THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS THE MONSOONAL FLOW KEEPS MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE VERY COMPLICATED BUT
WEAK AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AND NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MAY
SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM
THE GREAT BASIN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SETS UP SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...LADEN WITH GULF
MOISTURE...ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE
AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS THE RESULT. BURN SCARS AND AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL
ON CONSECUTIVE DAYS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WILL TREND WIND FCST TOWARDS HRRR THRU MID AFTN WITH WINDS BECOMING
MORE ELY BY 18Z.  AFT 21Z MAY SEE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM FOOTHILLS
CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS TRIGGERING SCT TSTMS.  IF THE AIRPORT TAKES A
DIRECT HIT THEN COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILTIES UP TO AN HOUR AS STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING.  FOR
TONIGHT NOT SURE HOW THINGS ARE GOING TO EVOLVE.  COULD SEE A STEADY
RAIN EVENT DVLP WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT`S STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS MAY FOCUS. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE FROM
1 TO 2 INCHES WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS. IF THE WARM
RAIN PROCESSES KICK IN AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN A
MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT COULD OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WITH
EVEN HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND MOST OF NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033>047-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 290343
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
943 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 943 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

A NARROW RIBBON OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM
NORTHEAST LARIMER COUNTY TO WESTERN LOGAN COUNTY CONTINUES TO
SHRINK IN SIZE AND INTENSITY AT THIS HOUR. NOT ALL THAT SURE WHY
THIS COLLECTION OF STORMS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY IN THIS AREA
FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. ONE PARTICULAR STORM SAT STATIONARY
OVER THE TOWN OF NUNN IN NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY FOR ABOUT TWO
HOURS. LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A NUMBER OF DIRT ROADS
EITHER WASHED OVER OR WASHED OUT IN THE AREA FROM ABOUT 3 INCHES
OF RAIN ACCORDING TO RADAR. THAT STORM HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...
HOWEVER A COUPLE MORE STORMS HAVE JUST FORMED OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST LARIMER COUNTY AND BARE WATCHING ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO
BE A OLD WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. OTHERWISE HAVE REMOVED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN THE GREAT DENVER METRO AREA FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. THERE WAS SOME INDICATION THAT PARTS OF THE
FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR COULD SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS FORMING
AROUND SUNRISE. LATEST DATA DOES NOT INDICATE THIS HAPPENING EVEN
WITH THE INCREASING MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
SOME DECREASE IN THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. STEERING WINDS TO BE WEAK...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS
EXPECTED. WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN EXISTS ALONG WITH A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. ON WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH GOOD UPSLOPE UP TO ABOUT 650
MB. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING DURING THE
MORNING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT DECREASE WITH MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. BY AFTERNOON...NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH MODELS
SHOW OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO AT 12Z IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH INCREASING LIFT. THIS SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY.
STEERING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT...SO STORMS TO CONTINUE TO BE SLOW
MOVING. HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
DURING THE EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. STILL SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THOUGH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE DECREASING.

BY THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTH NORTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND BETWEEN 0.60 AND
0.70 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER SOME MORNING LOW LOW CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS FOG...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE THOUGH THREAT FOR FLOODING LOOKS LOW. SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY...THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS HINT AT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TO BE A BIT
WARMER...WITH READINGS AROUND 80 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS EACH DAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HINTS OF A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 943 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EARLIER THOUGH THE STORMS UP ACROSS
NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY WOULD DRIFT SOUTH CLIPPING DIA AND POSSIBLY
APA TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING. DON/T SEE THAT HAPPENING NOW. SO
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER IN THEIR TAFS. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF LOW
CLOUDS AROUND SUNSET...LATEST DATA NO LONGER INDICATES LOW CIGS.
AS IT LOOKS NOW DO ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP/STORM ACTIVITY IN THE
DENVER AREA UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOES INTO EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 943 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER FOR THE NIGHT. LAST OF THE STORMS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER WELD AND LOGAN COUNTIES SHOWING
SIGNS OF COLLAPSING. MODELS ONLY SHOW POCKETS OF LIGHT QPF/PRECIP
AMTS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND MAINLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND OVER PARK COUNTRY. OTHERWISE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTER 3/4TH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS
REMAIN QUITE BULLISH REGARDING STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS. GREATEST
AMOUNTS STILL STRETCHED OUT ACROSS NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
INCLUDING THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE. OF COURSE THIS CAN EASILY
SHIFT WITH THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033>047-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...BAKER
HYDROLOGY...BAKER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 290343
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
943 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 943 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

A NARROW RIBBON OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM
NORTHEAST LARIMER COUNTY TO WESTERN LOGAN COUNTY CONTINUES TO
SHRINK IN SIZE AND INTENSITY AT THIS HOUR. NOT ALL THAT SURE WHY
THIS COLLECTION OF STORMS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY IN THIS AREA
FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. ONE PARTICULAR STORM SAT STATIONARY
OVER THE TOWN OF NUNN IN NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY FOR ABOUT TWO
HOURS. LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A NUMBER OF DIRT ROADS
EITHER WASHED OVER OR WASHED OUT IN THE AREA FROM ABOUT 3 INCHES
OF RAIN ACCORDING TO RADAR. THAT STORM HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...
HOWEVER A COUPLE MORE STORMS HAVE JUST FORMED OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST LARIMER COUNTY AND BARE WATCHING ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO
BE A OLD WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. OTHERWISE HAVE REMOVED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN THE GREAT DENVER METRO AREA FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. THERE WAS SOME INDICATION THAT PARTS OF THE
FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR COULD SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS FORMING
AROUND SUNRISE. LATEST DATA DOES NOT INDICATE THIS HAPPENING EVEN
WITH THE INCREASING MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
SOME DECREASE IN THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. STEERING WINDS TO BE WEAK...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS
EXPECTED. WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN EXISTS ALONG WITH A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. ON WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH GOOD UPSLOPE UP TO ABOUT 650
MB. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING DURING THE
MORNING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT DECREASE WITH MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. BY AFTERNOON...NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH MODELS
SHOW OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO AT 12Z IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH INCREASING LIFT. THIS SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY.
STEERING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT...SO STORMS TO CONTINUE TO BE SLOW
MOVING. HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
DURING THE EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. STILL SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THOUGH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE DECREASING.

BY THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTH NORTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND BETWEEN 0.60 AND
0.70 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER SOME MORNING LOW LOW CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS FOG...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE THOUGH THREAT FOR FLOODING LOOKS LOW. SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY...THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS HINT AT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TO BE A BIT
WARMER...WITH READINGS AROUND 80 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS EACH DAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HINTS OF A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 943 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EARLIER THOUGH THE STORMS UP ACROSS
NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY WOULD DRIFT SOUTH CLIPPING DIA AND POSSIBLY
APA TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING. DON/T SEE THAT HAPPENING NOW. SO
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER IN THEIR TAFS. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF LOW
CLOUDS AROUND SUNSET...LATEST DATA NO LONGER INDICATES LOW CIGS.
AS IT LOOKS NOW DO ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP/STORM ACTIVITY IN THE
DENVER AREA UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOES INTO EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 943 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER FOR THE NIGHT. LAST OF THE STORMS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER WELD AND LOGAN COUNTIES SHOWING
SIGNS OF COLLAPSING. MODELS ONLY SHOW POCKETS OF LIGHT QPF/PRECIP
AMTS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND MAINLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND OVER PARK COUNTRY. OTHERWISE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTER 3/4TH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS
REMAIN QUITE BULLISH REGARDING STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS. GREATEST
AMOUNTS STILL STRETCHED OUT ACROSS NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
INCLUDING THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE. OF COURSE THIS CAN EASILY
SHIFT WITH THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033>047-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...BAKER
HYDROLOGY...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 282144
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
344 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
INTO MEXICO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROUND THE RIDGE.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE STATE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND ONE INCH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING
THE BIGGEST THREAT. APPEARS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE SOME WHAT
CAPPED SO WILL LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THOUGH THE
TREAT IS LOW.

WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...STORMS WILL END LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. COULD SEE LOW CLOUDS TOWARDS DAY
BREAK DUE TO THE MOIST AIRMASS...BUT SOME DRY AIR COULD PREVENT
THIS.

THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. ISOLATED STORMS
MAY FORM LATE TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
REACH AN INCH IN THE FOOTHILLS... 1.25 ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES ON THE PLAINS. CAPES WILL REACH 500 TO 1000
J/KG...THIS COMBINED WITH SOME DIRECTION SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE
COULD LEAD TO A COUPLE MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS...WITH STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN WHERE ONE INCH OF RAINFALL COULD FALL IN AS LITTLE AS 15-20
MINUTES FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS. THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE HIGH AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
ABOUT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
SOME DECREASE IN THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. STEERING WINDS TO BE WEAK...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS
EXPECTED. WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN EXISTS ALONG WITH A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. ON WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH GOOD UPSLOPE UP TO ABOUT 650
MB. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING DURING THE
MORNING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT DECREASE WITH MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. BY AFTERNOON...NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH MODELS
SHOW OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO AT 12Z IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH INCREASING LIFT. THIS SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY.
STEERING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT...SO STORMS TO CONTINUE TO BE SLOW
MOVING. HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
DURING THE EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. STILL SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THOUGH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE DECREASING.

BY THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTH NORTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND BETWEEN 0.60 AND
0.70 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER SOME MORNING LOW LOW CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS FOG...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE THOUGH THREAT FOR FLOODING LOOKS LOW. SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY...THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS HINT AT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TO BE A BIT
WARMER...WITH READINGS AROUND 80 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS EACH DAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HINTS OF A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DENVER
AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KNOTS. WIND DIRECTION MAY CHANGE A TIME OR TWO
DUE TO OUTFLOWS FROM NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH DRY AIR COULD PREVENT THIS
FROM HAPPENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE DENVER AIRPORTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER 19Z. HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO
40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

AIRMASS IS MOIST TODAY AND STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING WHICH IS
LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING. FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE
THE AREAS OF CONCERN TODAY. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...SO THE OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LOW.

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE MUCH HIGHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE BOXES HAVE BEEN CHECKED FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THEY
INCLUDE...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
THE 99TH PERCENTILE...DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER OF 8000-9000 FEET...DEEP
SKINNY CAPE WITH VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW
UP TO 650 MB WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN UPSLOPE FLOW AND HELP STORMS
REGENERATE/TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST
OF WEDNESDAY.

GRADUAL DRYING STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH THE FLOOD RISK SHOULD BE LOWER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033>047-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...D-L/MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 282144
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
344 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
INTO MEXICO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROUND THE RIDGE.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE STATE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND ONE INCH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING
THE BIGGEST THREAT. APPEARS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE SOME WHAT
CAPPED SO WILL LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THOUGH THE
TREAT IS LOW.

WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...STORMS WILL END LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. COULD SEE LOW CLOUDS TOWARDS DAY
BREAK DUE TO THE MOIST AIRMASS...BUT SOME DRY AIR COULD PREVENT
THIS.

THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. ISOLATED STORMS
MAY FORM LATE TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
REACH AN INCH IN THE FOOTHILLS... 1.25 ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES ON THE PLAINS. CAPES WILL REACH 500 TO 1000
J/KG...THIS COMBINED WITH SOME DIRECTION SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE
COULD LEAD TO A COUPLE MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS...WITH STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN WHERE ONE INCH OF RAINFALL COULD FALL IN AS LITTLE AS 15-20
MINUTES FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS. THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE HIGH AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
ABOUT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
SOME DECREASE IN THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. STEERING WINDS TO BE WEAK...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS
EXPECTED. WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN EXISTS ALONG WITH A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. ON WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH GOOD UPSLOPE UP TO ABOUT 650
MB. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING DURING THE
MORNING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT DECREASE WITH MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. BY AFTERNOON...NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH MODELS
SHOW OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO AT 12Z IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH INCREASING LIFT. THIS SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY.
STEERING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT...SO STORMS TO CONTINUE TO BE SLOW
MOVING. HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
DURING THE EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. STILL SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THOUGH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE DECREASING.

BY THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTH NORTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND BETWEEN 0.60 AND
0.70 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER SOME MORNING LOW LOW CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS FOG...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE THOUGH THREAT FOR FLOODING LOOKS LOW. SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY...THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS HINT AT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TO BE A BIT
WARMER...WITH READINGS AROUND 80 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS EACH DAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HINTS OF A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DENVER
AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KNOTS. WIND DIRECTION MAY CHANGE A TIME OR TWO
DUE TO OUTFLOWS FROM NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH DRY AIR COULD PREVENT THIS
FROM HAPPENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE DENVER AIRPORTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER 19Z. HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO
40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

AIRMASS IS MOIST TODAY AND STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING WHICH IS
LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING. FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE
THE AREAS OF CONCERN TODAY. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...SO THE OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LOW.

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE MUCH HIGHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE BOXES HAVE BEEN CHECKED FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THEY
INCLUDE...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
THE 99TH PERCENTILE...DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER OF 8000-9000 FEET...DEEP
SKINNY CAPE WITH VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW
UP TO 650 MB WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN UPSLOPE FLOW AND HELP STORMS
REGENERATE/TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST
OF WEDNESDAY.

GRADUAL DRYING STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH THE FLOOD RISK SHOULD BE LOWER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033>047-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...D-L/MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 281546
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
946 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD HEATING THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVED IN AT THE
LOWER LEVELS TO PREVENT LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH THE AIRMASS IS STILL
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND ONE INCH. BECAUSE OF
THE SUNNY SKIES...MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THIS MAY LEAD TO BECOMING A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK AND PLAN ON ONLY MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS SHOWING WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN. EXPECT POCKETS OF EVEN HEAVIER RAINFALL DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHEN THE RAIN WILL
END...COULD BE EARLY TO LATE WEDNESDAY. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
IS STILL LOOKING HIGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. AT THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT RANGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING
WILL KEEP MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE. A WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE...BUT
DEPENDING ON POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IT COULD HOLD THROUGH
THE DAY AS ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WOULD ENHANCE CYCLONE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.25
INCHES ON THE PLAINS...BUT MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
MID LEVEL DRYING COMING INTO FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. AS A
RESULT...PW VALUES BY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. CAPE VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WOULD
YIELD CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WITH LACK OF SHEAR AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE...SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LOW BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM STORMS...SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW. ALSO CONCERNED
THAT CAP MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...SO
NOT ENTIRELY SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS.
HIGHEST PROBABILITY CERTAINLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS/PARK COUNTY AREA WHERE CAP WILL BE BROKEN.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING AS MOIST AIRMASS
SLOWLY GETS WORKED OVER. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD ACTUALLY
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TURNING WEAK
UPSLOPE LATE AND WEAK Q-G FORCING REMAINS OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLIP FLOPPING
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING...WITH SOME MODELS FOCUSED FROM LARIMER AND BOULDER
COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND OTHERS FROM OUR SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. BUT THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WIDE SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS IN ABOUT AN
18 HOUR PERIOD. BIGGEST CONCERN HOWEVER IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS PRODUCED BY TERRAIN FOCUS...CONVECTION ON
STATIONARY BOUNDARIES...OR TRAINING WITHIN THE LARGER RAIN BAND.
WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOK TUESDAY EVENING LOOK REALLY
FAVORABLE FOR STATIONARY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. DEEP MEAN
WIND IS LIGHT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE EASTERLY...WITH STRONGER LOW
LEVEL EASTERLIES AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR BOTH BACK
BUILDING STORMS AND TERRAIN ANCHORING ON THE FOOTHILLS. IF
CONVECTION GETS ORGANIZED ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THIS COULD PRODUCE
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY PRODUCING REPEATED CONVECTION MOVING FROM
THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS OR FURTHER EAST UP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS NOT EXTREME BUT IS QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAVY RAIN RATES...PROBABLY AROUND 1.25 INCHES. SAME STORY FOR
CAPE...DEEP SKINNY CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 1000
J/KG WITH SOME OF THE EARLY CONVECTION. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS ABOUT
AS GREAT AS WE GET...UP TO AROUND 8000 FEET BY TUESDAY
EVENING...SO WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BOOST PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY ESPECIALLY IN A BROADLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SEVERAL AREAS WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR
RAIN AMOUNTS THAT SUSTAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A LITTLE EARLY FOR A
WATCH YET...THERE MAY BE MORE CLARITY ON THE POSITION AND TIMING
LATER TODAY...BUT WE WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT IN OUR
PRODUCTS THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY PLACID AFTER THE MAIN RAIN AREA
EXITS. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DO THAT...KEEPING SOME SIGNIFICANT RAIN
INTO THE MORNING. WILL LEAVE SOME SUBSTANTIAL POPS...BUT THINK THE
MAIN EVENT WILL BE OVER BEFORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BUT LOW
LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL AS THE NNW FLOW CONTINUES. PROBABLY
SOME MINOR RIPPLES IN THE FLOW THAT WILL MODULATE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...BUT OVERALL PROBABLY SCATTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES ON THE
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 946 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
AROUND 18Z AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE 21Z TO 02Z AT THE DENVER AIRPORTS. MAIN THREATS FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KNOTS.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER
18Z. WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT A FEW TIMES TODAY DUE TO OUTFLOW
FROM CONVECTION.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY 11Z TO 16Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE A SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM THE
FOOTHILLS ONTO THE NEARBY ADJACENT PLAINS...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH
SHOWN TO BE NEAR 5000 FT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STRONGER STORMS WOULD PRODUCE 1 INCH IN
20-30 MINUTES. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH INFLOW AND VERY WEAK
FLOW ALOFT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY SO
ISOLATED STRONGEST STORMS WOULD PRODUCE 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR.
FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS COULD
SEE FLOODING ISSUES FROM THE ISOLATED STRONGEST STORMS.

FLASH FLOOD RISK IS LOOKING HIGH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO PICK THE FOCUS...THOUGH AREAS IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS ARE MOST LIKELY. A WIDESPREAD INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES DEVELOP.
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON LARGER
CREEKS AND THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER.

FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT THE FLOOD RISK WILL BE LOWER DUE TO
SOME DRYING AND REDUCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH/GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 281546
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
946 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD HEATING THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVED IN AT THE
LOWER LEVELS TO PREVENT LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH THE AIRMASS IS STILL
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND ONE INCH. BECAUSE OF
THE SUNNY SKIES...MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THIS MAY LEAD TO BECOMING A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK AND PLAN ON ONLY MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS SHOWING WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN. EXPECT POCKETS OF EVEN HEAVIER RAINFALL DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHEN THE RAIN WILL
END...COULD BE EARLY TO LATE WEDNESDAY. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
IS STILL LOOKING HIGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. AT THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT RANGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING
WILL KEEP MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE. A WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE...BUT
DEPENDING ON POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IT COULD HOLD THROUGH
THE DAY AS ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WOULD ENHANCE CYCLONE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.25
INCHES ON THE PLAINS...BUT MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
MID LEVEL DRYING COMING INTO FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. AS A
RESULT...PW VALUES BY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. CAPE VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WOULD
YIELD CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WITH LACK OF SHEAR AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE...SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LOW BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM STORMS...SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW. ALSO CONCERNED
THAT CAP MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...SO
NOT ENTIRELY SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS.
HIGHEST PROBABILITY CERTAINLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS/PARK COUNTY AREA WHERE CAP WILL BE BROKEN.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING AS MOIST AIRMASS
SLOWLY GETS WORKED OVER. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD ACTUALLY
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TURNING WEAK
UPSLOPE LATE AND WEAK Q-G FORCING REMAINS OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLIP FLOPPING
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING...WITH SOME MODELS FOCUSED FROM LARIMER AND BOULDER
COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND OTHERS FROM OUR SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. BUT THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WIDE SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS IN ABOUT AN
18 HOUR PERIOD. BIGGEST CONCERN HOWEVER IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS PRODUCED BY TERRAIN FOCUS...CONVECTION ON
STATIONARY BOUNDARIES...OR TRAINING WITHIN THE LARGER RAIN BAND.
WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOK TUESDAY EVENING LOOK REALLY
FAVORABLE FOR STATIONARY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. DEEP MEAN
WIND IS LIGHT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE EASTERLY...WITH STRONGER LOW
LEVEL EASTERLIES AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR BOTH BACK
BUILDING STORMS AND TERRAIN ANCHORING ON THE FOOTHILLS. IF
CONVECTION GETS ORGANIZED ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THIS COULD PRODUCE
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY PRODUCING REPEATED CONVECTION MOVING FROM
THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS OR FURTHER EAST UP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS NOT EXTREME BUT IS QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAVY RAIN RATES...PROBABLY AROUND 1.25 INCHES. SAME STORY FOR
CAPE...DEEP SKINNY CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 1000
J/KG WITH SOME OF THE EARLY CONVECTION. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS ABOUT
AS GREAT AS WE GET...UP TO AROUND 8000 FEET BY TUESDAY
EVENING...SO WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BOOST PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY ESPECIALLY IN A BROADLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SEVERAL AREAS WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR
RAIN AMOUNTS THAT SUSTAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A LITTLE EARLY FOR A
WATCH YET...THERE MAY BE MORE CLARITY ON THE POSITION AND TIMING
LATER TODAY...BUT WE WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT IN OUR
PRODUCTS THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY PLACID AFTER THE MAIN RAIN AREA
EXITS. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DO THAT...KEEPING SOME SIGNIFICANT RAIN
INTO THE MORNING. WILL LEAVE SOME SUBSTANTIAL POPS...BUT THINK THE
MAIN EVENT WILL BE OVER BEFORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BUT LOW
LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL AS THE NNW FLOW CONTINUES. PROBABLY
SOME MINOR RIPPLES IN THE FLOW THAT WILL MODULATE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...BUT OVERALL PROBABLY SCATTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES ON THE
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 946 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
AROUND 18Z AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE 21Z TO 02Z AT THE DENVER AIRPORTS. MAIN THREATS FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KNOTS.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER
18Z. WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT A FEW TIMES TODAY DUE TO OUTFLOW
FROM CONVECTION.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY 11Z TO 16Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE A SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM THE
FOOTHILLS ONTO THE NEARBY ADJACENT PLAINS...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH
SHOWN TO BE NEAR 5000 FT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STRONGER STORMS WOULD PRODUCE 1 INCH IN
20-30 MINUTES. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH INFLOW AND VERY WEAK
FLOW ALOFT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY SO
ISOLATED STRONGEST STORMS WOULD PRODUCE 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR.
FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS COULD
SEE FLOODING ISSUES FROM THE ISOLATED STRONGEST STORMS.

FLASH FLOOD RISK IS LOOKING HIGH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO PICK THE FOCUS...THOUGH AREAS IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS ARE MOST LIKELY. A WIDESPREAD INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES DEVELOP.
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON LARGER
CREEKS AND THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER.

FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT THE FLOOD RISK WILL BE LOWER DUE TO
SOME DRYING AND REDUCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH/GIMMESTAD





000
FXUS65 KBOU 281021
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
421 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. AT THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT RANGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING
WILL KEEP MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE. A WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE...BUT
DEPENDING ON POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IT COULD HOLD THROUGH
THE DAY AS ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WOULD ENHANCE CYCLONE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.25
INCHES ON THE PLAINS...BUT MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
MID LEVEL DRYING COMING INTO FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. AS A
RESULT...PW VALUES BY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. CAPE VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WOULD
YIELD CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WITH LACK OF SHEAR AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE...SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LOW BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM STORMS...SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW. ALSO CONCERNED
THAT CAP MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...SO
NOT ENTIRELY SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS.
HIGHEST PROBABILITY CERTAIINLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS/PARK COUNTY AREA WHERE CAP WILL BE BROKEN.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING AS MOIST AIRMASS
SLOWLY GETS WORKED OVER. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD ACTUALLY
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TURNING WEAK
UPSLOPE LATE AND WEAK Q-G FORCING REMAINS OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLIP FLOPPING
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING...WITH SOME MODELS FOCUSED FROM LARIMER AND BOULDER
COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND OTHERS FROM OUR SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. BUT THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WIDE SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS IN ABOUT AN
18 HOUR PERIOD. BIGGEST CONCERN HOWEVER IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS PRODUCED BY TERRAIN FOCUS...CONVECTION ON
STATIONARY BOUNDARIES...OR TRAINING WITHIN THE LARGER RAIN BAND.
WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOK TUESDAY EVENING LOOK REALLY
FAVORABLE FOR STATIONARY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. DEEP MEAN
WIND IS LIGHT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE EASTERLY...WITH STRONGER LOW
LEVEL EASTERLIES AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR BOTH BACK
BUILDING STORMS AND TERRAIN ANCHORING ON THE FOOTHILLS. IF
CONVECTION GETS ORGANIZED ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THIS COULD PRODUCE
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY PRODUCING REPEATED CONVECTION MOVING FROM
THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS OR FURTHER EAST UP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS NOT EXTREME BUT IS QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAVY RAIN RATES...PROBABLY AROUND 1.25 INCHES. SAME STORY FOR
CAPE...DEEP SKINNY CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 1000
J/KG WITH SOME OF THE EARLY CONVECTION. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS ABOUT
AS GREAT AS WE GET...UP TO AROUND 8000 FEET BY TUESDAY
EVENING...SO WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BOOST PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY ESPECIALLY IN A BROADLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SEVERAL AREAS WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR
RAIN AMOUNTS THAT SUSTAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A LITTLE EARLY FOR A
WATCH YET...THERE MAY BE MORE CLARITY ON THE POSITION AND TIMING
LATER TODAY...BUT WE WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT IN OUR
PRODUCTS THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY PLACID AFTER THE MAIN RAIN AREA
EXITS. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DO THAT...KEEPING SOME SIGNIFICANT RAIN
INTO THE MORNING. WILL LEAVE SOME SUBSTANTIAL POPS...BUT THINK THE
MAIN EVENT WILL BE OVER BEFORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BUT LOW
LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL AS THE NNW FLOW CONTINUES. PROBABLY
SOME MINOR RIPPLES IN THE FLOW THAT WILL MODULATE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...BUT OVERALL PROBABLY SCATTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES ON THE
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

ANOTHER TOUGH CALL ON POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
DENVER CYCLONE IS QUITE WEAK AT THIS TIME AND SOME MID/HIGH LVEL
CLOUDINESS WAS KEEPING BOUNDARY LAYER SLIGHTLY WARMER. THIS COULD
PREVENT LOW CLOUDS OR STRATUS FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...PROBABILITY OF A STRATUS DECK/LIGHT FOG
NEAR 50-60%. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS DECK USUALLY DEVELOPS
12Z-13Z. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. AT THIS
TIME THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TEMPO TSRA IN TAFS 22Z-02Z
BUT COULD LINGER AS LATE AS 04Z-05Z LIKE LAST EVENING. VISIBILITIY
RESTRICTION DOWN TO 1-2SM AND CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 3000 FT AGL
IN/NEAR STORM CORES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE A SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM THE
FOOTHILLS ONTO THE NEARBY ADJACENT PLAINS...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH
SHOWN TO BE NEAR 5000 FT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STRONGER STORMS WOULD PRODUCE 1 INCH IN
20-30 MINUTES. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH INFLOW AND VERY WEAK
FLOW ALOFT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY SO
ISOLATED STRONGEST STORMS WOULD PRODUCE 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR.
FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS COULD
SEE FLOODING ISSUES FROM THE ISOLATED STRONGEST STORMS.

FLASH FLOOD RISK IS LOOKING HIGH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO PICK THE FOCUS...THOUGH AREAS IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS ARE MOST LIKELY. A WIDESPREAD INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES DEVELOP.
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON LARGER
CREEKS AND THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER.

FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT THE FLOOD RISK WILL BE LOWER DUE TO
SOME DRYING AND REDUCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH/GIMMESTAD





000
FXUS65 KBOU 281021
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
421 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. AT THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT RANGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING
WILL KEEP MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE. A WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE...BUT
DEPENDING ON POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IT COULD HOLD THROUGH
THE DAY AS ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WOULD ENHANCE CYCLONE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.25
INCHES ON THE PLAINS...BUT MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
MID LEVEL DRYING COMING INTO FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. AS A
RESULT...PW VALUES BY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. CAPE VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WOULD
YIELD CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WITH LACK OF SHEAR AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE...SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LOW BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM STORMS...SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW. ALSO CONCERNED
THAT CAP MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...SO
NOT ENTIRELY SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS.
HIGHEST PROBABILITY CERTAIINLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS/PARK COUNTY AREA WHERE CAP WILL BE BROKEN.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING AS MOIST AIRMASS
SLOWLY GETS WORKED OVER. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD ACTUALLY
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TURNING WEAK
UPSLOPE LATE AND WEAK Q-G FORCING REMAINS OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLIP FLOPPING
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING...WITH SOME MODELS FOCUSED FROM LARIMER AND BOULDER
COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND OTHERS FROM OUR SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. BUT THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WIDE SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS IN ABOUT AN
18 HOUR PERIOD. BIGGEST CONCERN HOWEVER IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS PRODUCED BY TERRAIN FOCUS...CONVECTION ON
STATIONARY BOUNDARIES...OR TRAINING WITHIN THE LARGER RAIN BAND.
WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOK TUESDAY EVENING LOOK REALLY
FAVORABLE FOR STATIONARY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. DEEP MEAN
WIND IS LIGHT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE EASTERLY...WITH STRONGER LOW
LEVEL EASTERLIES AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR BOTH BACK
BUILDING STORMS AND TERRAIN ANCHORING ON THE FOOTHILLS. IF
CONVECTION GETS ORGANIZED ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THIS COULD PRODUCE
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY PRODUCING REPEATED CONVECTION MOVING FROM
THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS OR FURTHER EAST UP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS NOT EXTREME BUT IS QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAVY RAIN RATES...PROBABLY AROUND 1.25 INCHES. SAME STORY FOR
CAPE...DEEP SKINNY CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 1000
J/KG WITH SOME OF THE EARLY CONVECTION. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS ABOUT
AS GREAT AS WE GET...UP TO AROUND 8000 FEET BY TUESDAY
EVENING...SO WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BOOST PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY ESPECIALLY IN A BROADLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SEVERAL AREAS WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR
RAIN AMOUNTS THAT SUSTAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A LITTLE EARLY FOR A
WATCH YET...THERE MAY BE MORE CLARITY ON THE POSITION AND TIMING
LATER TODAY...BUT WE WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT IN OUR
PRODUCTS THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY PLACID AFTER THE MAIN RAIN AREA
EXITS. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DO THAT...KEEPING SOME SIGNIFICANT RAIN
INTO THE MORNING. WILL LEAVE SOME SUBSTANTIAL POPS...BUT THINK THE
MAIN EVENT WILL BE OVER BEFORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BUT LOW
LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL AS THE NNW FLOW CONTINUES. PROBABLY
SOME MINOR RIPPLES IN THE FLOW THAT WILL MODULATE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...BUT OVERALL PROBABLY SCATTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES ON THE
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

ANOTHER TOUGH CALL ON POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
DENVER CYCLONE IS QUITE WEAK AT THIS TIME AND SOME MID/HIGH LVEL
CLOUDINESS WAS KEEPING BOUNDARY LAYER SLIGHTLY WARMER. THIS COULD
PREVENT LOW CLOUDS OR STRATUS FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...PROBABILITY OF A STRATUS DECK/LIGHT FOG
NEAR 50-60%. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS DECK USUALLY DEVELOPS
12Z-13Z. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. AT THIS
TIME THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TEMPO TSRA IN TAFS 22Z-02Z
BUT COULD LINGER AS LATE AS 04Z-05Z LIKE LAST EVENING. VISIBILITIY
RESTRICTION DOWN TO 1-2SM AND CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 3000 FT AGL
IN/NEAR STORM CORES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE A SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM THE
FOOTHILLS ONTO THE NEARBY ADJACENT PLAINS...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH
SHOWN TO BE NEAR 5000 FT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STRONGER STORMS WOULD PRODUCE 1 INCH IN
20-30 MINUTES. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH INFLOW AND VERY WEAK
FLOW ALOFT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY SO
ISOLATED STRONGEST STORMS WOULD PRODUCE 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR.
FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS COULD
SEE FLOODING ISSUES FROM THE ISOLATED STRONGEST STORMS.

FLASH FLOOD RISK IS LOOKING HIGH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO PICK THE FOCUS...THOUGH AREAS IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS ARE MOST LIKELY. A WIDESPREAD INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES DEVELOP.
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON LARGER
CREEKS AND THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER.

FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT THE FLOOD RISK WILL BE LOWER DUE TO
SOME DRYING AND REDUCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH/GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 280339
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
939 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ISOLATED T-STORMS CONTINUE TO PULSE UP THIS EVENING AT THE
INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
ADAMS...SOUTHERN WELD AND SOUTHWEST MORGAN COUNTIES. A SECOND
LARGER AREA OF STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN ELBERT AND EASTERN
ARAPAHOE...SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES
CONTINUES ITS VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION. KFTG VAD WIND
PROFILER CURRENTLY INDICATES 10-15KT SELY SFC-12K FT AGL
WINDS...AND ONLY 5-20KT NWLY 15K-28K FT AGL WINDS OVER DENVER.
REASON FOR THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS THIS EVENING. INTEGRATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS EVENING WITH
IMPRESSIVE PW VALUES OF 1.38 INCH AT BOULDER AND 1.53 INCH AT
PLATTEVILLE. HOWEVER IN THE PAST HOUR HAVE NOTICED A DECLINE IN
STORM INTENSITIES AND COVERAGE. JUST UPDATED POP AND WEATHER
GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. SHOULD SEE MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THESE STORMS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT...EVEN WITH ALL OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AROUND. HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF THIS
MOISTURE AND A PERSISTENT LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD AGAIN RESULT IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG
TOWARDS DAWN...MAINLY UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS... FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR THROUGH MID
EVENING. A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS PUSHED DEW POINTS INTO
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES JUST ABOVE AN INCH. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THE STORMS WITH ONE INCH POSSIBLE IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES. SEVERE
THREAT IS LOW DUE TO LIMITED SHEAR AND CAPES LESS THAN A 1000
J/KG. THOUGH CAN`T TOTALLY RULE ONE OUT EITHER. THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS WILL BE TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR STORMS.

EXPECT THE STORMS TO DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS
STABILIZES. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF THE MOIST AIRMASS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S VALUES WITH A LITTLE OVER
AN INCH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR. THE MORNING MAY
START OFF WITH LOW CLOUDS AGAIN BECAUSE OF THE MOISTURE. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...THOUGH MAY BE A STRUGGLE
TO REACH THEM AGAIN BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS. USING DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 50S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S YIELD CAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG. THIS AND LIMITED SHEAR WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOW...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WITH ONE INCH
POSSIBLE IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.LONG TERM...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE FOR THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW TO MOVE DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS STILL SHOW WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE MOTION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THEM FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT
IS MOSTLY NORTHEAST TO DUE EASTERLY. A COOLER AIR MASS IS PROGGED
TO MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE IS UBIQUITOUS THROUGH THE PERIODS
...ESPECIALLY FORM TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS ARE IN THE
0.90 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID DAY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THEY DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S F FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS
PRETTY MOIST. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT PERIOD. THE QPF
FIELDS SHOW SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL MONDAY EVENING. THE PERIOD
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON HAS SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS PROGGED ON THE ALL THE MODELS FOR THE WESTERN THREE-
QUARTERS OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAS LITTLE. THERE IS FAIR
CAPE OVER MOST AREAS MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGHER VALUES AND
BETTER COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE CAPE MINIMAL IS BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE
WILL STILL LIKELY BE STRATIFORM TYPE PRECIPITATION. FOR POPS...
WILL KEEP "CHANCE"S GOING MONDAY EVENING. FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL GO WITH 50-70%S FOR THE CWA.
WILL DECREASE THEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 1-3 C COOLER THAN MONDAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE
ANOTHER 2-5 C COOLER THAN TUESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH AND THE
AXIS BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. ON
FRIDAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS JUST WEST OF
THE COLORADO/UTAH BORDER. MOISTURE DECREASES SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT
TOTALLY. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THANKS TO THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE VERY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM IMMEDIATELY NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST OF DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNING OF WEAKENING AT THIS TIME. AT THE PRESENT RATE THIS CELL
SHOULD EITHER DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST OF THE AIRPORT IN THE NEXT
45-60 MINUTES. OTHERWISE THE THREAT OF T-STORMS AT DENVER AREA
TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AS THE AMBIENT AIRMASS STABILIZES WITH COOLING. CURRENT TERMINAL
FORECASTS INDICATE LOW CIGS AFTER 10Z TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
VERY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE. MODELS NOT INDICATING ANY
FOG IN THE METRO AREA...JUST A STRATUS DECK ROUGHLY FROM 12Z-15Z
OR SO TOMORROW MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS DO NOT
INDICATE A CLOUD LAYER AS LOW OR AS THICK AS THE ONE THIS MORNING.
SO MAY SEE AN EARLIER BREAKOUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EVENING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. RAINFALL RATES OF LESS THAN 0.25 INCH PER HOUR ARE ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED WITH STORMS IN THE THE DENVER/BOULDER CWA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BAKER
HYDROLOGY...BAKER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 280339
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
939 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ISOLATED T-STORMS CONTINUE TO PULSE UP THIS EVENING AT THE
INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
ADAMS...SOUTHERN WELD AND SOUTHWEST MORGAN COUNTIES. A SECOND
LARGER AREA OF STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN ELBERT AND EASTERN
ARAPAHOE...SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES
CONTINUES ITS VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION. KFTG VAD WIND
PROFILER CURRENTLY INDICATES 10-15KT SELY SFC-12K FT AGL
WINDS...AND ONLY 5-20KT NWLY 15K-28K FT AGL WINDS OVER DENVER.
REASON FOR THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS THIS EVENING. INTEGRATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS EVENING WITH
IMPRESSIVE PW VALUES OF 1.38 INCH AT BOULDER AND 1.53 INCH AT
PLATTEVILLE. HOWEVER IN THE PAST HOUR HAVE NOTICED A DECLINE IN
STORM INTENSITIES AND COVERAGE. JUST UPDATED POP AND WEATHER
GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. SHOULD SEE MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THESE STORMS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT...EVEN WITH ALL OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AROUND. HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF THIS
MOISTURE AND A PERSISTENT LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD AGAIN RESULT IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG
TOWARDS DAWN...MAINLY UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS... FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR THROUGH MID
EVENING. A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS PUSHED DEW POINTS INTO
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES JUST ABOVE AN INCH. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THE STORMS WITH ONE INCH POSSIBLE IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES. SEVERE
THREAT IS LOW DUE TO LIMITED SHEAR AND CAPES LESS THAN A 1000
J/KG. THOUGH CAN`T TOTALLY RULE ONE OUT EITHER. THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS WILL BE TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR STORMS.

EXPECT THE STORMS TO DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS
STABILIZES. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF THE MOIST AIRMASS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S VALUES WITH A LITTLE OVER
AN INCH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR. THE MORNING MAY
START OFF WITH LOW CLOUDS AGAIN BECAUSE OF THE MOISTURE. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...THOUGH MAY BE A STRUGGLE
TO REACH THEM AGAIN BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS. USING DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 50S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S YIELD CAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG. THIS AND LIMITED SHEAR WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOW...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WITH ONE INCH
POSSIBLE IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.LONG TERM...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE FOR THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW TO MOVE DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS STILL SHOW WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE MOTION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THEM FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT
IS MOSTLY NORTHEAST TO DUE EASTERLY. A COOLER AIR MASS IS PROGGED
TO MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE IS UBIQUITOUS THROUGH THE PERIODS
...ESPECIALLY FORM TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS ARE IN THE
0.90 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID DAY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THEY DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S F FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS
PRETTY MOIST. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT PERIOD. THE QPF
FIELDS SHOW SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL MONDAY EVENING. THE PERIOD
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON HAS SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS PROGGED ON THE ALL THE MODELS FOR THE WESTERN THREE-
QUARTERS OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAS LITTLE. THERE IS FAIR
CAPE OVER MOST AREAS MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGHER VALUES AND
BETTER COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE CAPE MINIMAL IS BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE
WILL STILL LIKELY BE STRATIFORM TYPE PRECIPITATION. FOR POPS...
WILL KEEP "CHANCE"S GOING MONDAY EVENING. FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL GO WITH 50-70%S FOR THE CWA.
WILL DECREASE THEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 1-3 C COOLER THAN MONDAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE
ANOTHER 2-5 C COOLER THAN TUESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH AND THE
AXIS BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. ON
FRIDAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS JUST WEST OF
THE COLORADO/UTAH BORDER. MOISTURE DECREASES SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT
TOTALLY. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THANKS TO THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE VERY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM IMMEDIATELY NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST OF DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNING OF WEAKENING AT THIS TIME. AT THE PRESENT RATE THIS CELL
SHOULD EITHER DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST OF THE AIRPORT IN THE NEXT
45-60 MINUTES. OTHERWISE THE THREAT OF T-STORMS AT DENVER AREA
TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AS THE AMBIENT AIRMASS STABILIZES WITH COOLING. CURRENT TERMINAL
FORECASTS INDICATE LOW CIGS AFTER 10Z TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
VERY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE. MODELS NOT INDICATING ANY
FOG IN THE METRO AREA...JUST A STRATUS DECK ROUGHLY FROM 12Z-15Z
OR SO TOMORROW MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS DO NOT
INDICATE A CLOUD LAYER AS LOW OR AS THICK AS THE ONE THIS MORNING.
SO MAY SEE AN EARLIER BREAKOUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EVENING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. RAINFALL RATES OF LESS THAN 0.25 INCH PER HOUR ARE ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED WITH STORMS IN THE THE DENVER/BOULDER CWA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BAKER
HYDROLOGY...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 272112
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
312 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS... FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR THROUGH MID
EVENING. A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS PUSHED DEW POINTS INTO
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES JUST ABOVE AN INCH. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THE STORMS WITH ONE INCH POSSIBLE IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES. SEVERE
THREAT IS LOW DUE TO LIMITED SHEAR AND CAPES LESS THAN A 1000
J/KG. THOUGH CAN`T TOTALLY RULE ONE OUT EITHER. THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS WILL BE TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR STORMS.

EXPECT THE STORMS TO DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS
STABILIZES. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF THE MOIST AIRMASS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S VALUES WITH A LITTLE OVER
AN INCH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR. THE MORNING MAY
START OFF WITH LOW CLOUDS AGAIN BECAUSE OF THE MOISTURE. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...THOUGH MAY BE A STRUGGLE
TO REACH THEM AGAIN BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS. USING DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 50S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S YIELD CAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG. THIS AND LIMITED SHEAR WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOW...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WITH ONE INCH
POSSIBLE IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.LONG TERM...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE FOR THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW TO MOVE DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS STILL SHOW WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE MOTION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THEM FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT
IS MOSTLY NORTHEAST TO DUE EASTERLY. A COOLER AIR MASS IS PROGGED
TO MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE IS UBIQUITOUS THROUGH THE PERIODS
...ESPECIALLY FORM TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS ARE IN THE
0.90 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID DAY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THEY DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S F FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS
PRETTY MOIST. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT PERIOD. THE QPF
FIELDS SHOW SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL MONDAY EVENING. THE PERIOD
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON HAS SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS PROGED ON THE ALL THE MODELS FOR THE WESTERN THREE-
QUARTERS OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAS LITTLE. THERE IS FAIR
CAPE OVER MOST AREAS MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGHER VALUES AND
BETTER COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE CAPE MINIMAL IS BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE
WILL STILL LIKELY BE STRATIFORM TYPE PRECIPITATION. FOR POPS...
WILL KEEP "CHANCE"S GOING MONDAY EVENING. FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL GO WITH 50-70%S FOR THE CWA.
WILL DECREASE THEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 1-3 C COOLER THAN MONDAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE
ANOTHER 2-5 C COOLER THAN TUESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH AND THE
AXIS BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. ON
FRIDAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS JUST WEST OF
THE COLORADO/UTAH BORDER. MOISTURE DECREASES SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT
TOTALLY. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THANKS TO THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z
TODAY. MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40
KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL RISE TO 5000 TO 7000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE WESTERN PARTS OF DENVER. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 6000
FEET TONIGHT...THROUGH 09Z TO 12Z. THEN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REFORM WITH CEILINGS OF 500 TO 2000 FEET THROUGH 16Z MONDAY.

WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT A TIME OR TWO TODAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.1 INCH. WITH 60 DEGREE DEW
POINTS...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF
ABOUT 5000 FT...HEAVY RAIN FROM SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STEERING STORMS CLOSE TO 15 MPH. ONE
INCH OF RAIN IN 20-30 MINUTES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SLOWER MOVING
STORM OR TRAINING COULD PRODUCE 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS. STORM
MOVEMENT AND THE LACK OF REGENERATION WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...FLASH FLOOD PRONE
AREAS SUCH BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS COULD SEE FLOODING ISSUES
FROM THE STRONGER STORMS. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ON MONDAY
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 271544
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS. ALREADY SEEING
THE MOISTURE POOLING UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH LOW CLOUDS
FORMING. BY AFTERNOON... PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB ABOVE AN
INCH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS WILL LEAD TO QUICK DESTABILIZATION...WITH STORMS
STARTING TO FORM AROUND 18Z. CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL ALLOW STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS.
CAN`T RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM DUE TO OUTFLOW WINDS...BUT WITH
CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND A MOIST AIRMASS THE CHANCES WILL BE
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS
PUSHING BACK TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL HELP SET THE STAGE
FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THE LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MORE
PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE FOR TODAY. WHILE CURRENT INTEGRATED
PW VALUES FROM GPS ARE MODEST AROUND 0.80 TO 0.90 INCH...LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN POOLING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH PERSISTENT BUT WEAK
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW. AT THIS TIME FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS MARGINAL
AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70...SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS. MAIN CHANGE IN THE LAST 12-24 HOURS IS FOR A WEAKER CAP
IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WHICH WOULD BRING A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING AND DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR ESPECIALLY FROM DENVER METRO SOUTHWARD. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND EROSION OF CAP WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BY WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE. WITH LOWER LCLS AND WEAK DENVER CONVERGENCE VORTICITY
ZONE MAY EVEN SEE A BRIEF LANDSPOUT TORNADO. ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WITH WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL IN THAT AREA AS WELL IF CAPES
REACH 1500 J/KG AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OVER/NEAR THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA.

MEANWHILE...THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WILL BE TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WITH COOLER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP AREAS NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM NEAR CHEYENNE WYOMING TO AKRON CAPPED AND DRY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EXIT THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY AS COOLER LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD STABILIZE THE PLAINS. THERE
WILL STILL LIKELY BE SOME CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND CREATE A DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE AREA
OF COLORADO. MODELS HAVE FAIR CONSISTENCY ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE
TIMING...BUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF RAIN GENERATED VARY
SOMEWHAT. MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOP AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN
FROM THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A PREFERENCE FOR A
BULLSEYE OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES.
MODEL RAINFALL IS GENERALLY IN THE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OVER
THE PLAINS...WITH MAXIMA OF TWO INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...SO WE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHING THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN THIS PERIOD AS IT APPEARS THAT MANY FAVORABLE
INGREDIENTS WILL EXIST AND THE FOCUS WILL BE ON AREAS WITH
INCREASED VULNERABILITY. NOT A SURE THING YET THOUGH AS THE FOCUS
MAY NOT REMAIN IN ONE PLACE AS LONG AS IS SHOWN...OR MAY BE
ELSEWHERE AS IN THE LATEST GFS THAT HAS THIS BAND FURTHER
SOUTHWEST AND MOSTLY MISSES OUR AREA. I DID RAISE POPS FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD AND WILL MENTION POSSIBLE FLOODING IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FOR LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN AS LOW LEVELS WILL BE COOL
AGAIN AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME WARMING ALOFT. STILL SOME
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH A RETURN TO FAVORING AREAS IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS OF 1500 TO 3000 FEET WILL SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE MORNING. BY 18Z...EXPECT CEILINGS TO RANGE FROM 3000
TO 5000 FEET. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE 22Z TO 02Z AT
KDEN...A LITTLE SOONER CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE.
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE WIND DIRECTION TO
CHANGE A FEW TIMES BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.1 INCH...WELL ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR JULY. IT WOULD TAKE 1.25 INCH AS SHOWN IN THE
WETTEST GFS SOLUTION TO REACH THE 2ND STANDARD DEVIATION OR NEAR
THE 95TH PERCENTILE. NOT LIKELY WE WILL SEE THAT...BUT STILL A
CHANCE WE COULD REACH THOSE NUMBERS WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE WARM CLOUD DEPTH
INCREASING TO ABOUT 5000 FT...SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINERS. AT THE
SAME TIME...NORTHWEST STEERING WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING CLOSE TO 15 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STORM
INFLOW IS QUITE WEAK. AT THIS POINT...MOST PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL
FOR FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING
1 INCH OF RAIN IN 20-30 MINUTES...BUT A SLOWER MOVING STORM COULD
PRODUCE 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF THESE
STRONGER STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY FARTHER SOUTH INTO
PUEBLOS FORECAST AREA FROM TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTY
SOUTHWARD...BUT DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE POOLING THERE IS
SOME THREAT ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR FAVORING
PARK...JEFFERSON...AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LATEST PW TRENDS BUT FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD STILL BE ISSUED FOR
THOSE AREAS.

AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEK WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER AN INCH...LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND A
FAVORABLE DIRECTION PROFILE...UPSLOPE WINDS...AND A DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER. MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WHEN MORE SUSTAINED LIFT COULD CREATE NUMEROUS SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. UPSLOPE WINDS WOULD FOCUS THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT
IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...MODELS CURRENTLY FAVOR
BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES WITH A WIDESPREAD TWO INCHES OF RAIN.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL IN A FEW HOURS. FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE BUT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND LESS
PERSISTENT SO THE FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER AND MORE LOCALIZED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH/GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 271544
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS. ALREADY SEEING
THE MOISTURE POOLING UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH LOW CLOUDS
FORMING. BY AFTERNOON... PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB ABOVE AN
INCH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS WILL LEAD TO QUICK DESTABILIZATION...WITH STORMS
STARTING TO FORM AROUND 18Z. CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL ALLOW STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS.
CAN`T RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM DUE TO OUTFLOW WINDS...BUT WITH
CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND A MOIST AIRMASS THE CHANCES WILL BE
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS
PUSHING BACK TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL HELP SET THE STAGE
FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THE LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MORE
PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE FOR TODAY. WHILE CURRENT INTEGRATED
PW VALUES FROM GPS ARE MODEST AROUND 0.80 TO 0.90 INCH...LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN POOLING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH PERSISTENT BUT WEAK
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW. AT THIS TIME FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS MARGINAL
AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70...SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS. MAIN CHANGE IN THE LAST 12-24 HOURS IS FOR A WEAKER CAP
IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WHICH WOULD BRING A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING AND DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR ESPECIALLY FROM DENVER METRO SOUTHWARD. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND EROSION OF CAP WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BY WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE. WITH LOWER LCLS AND WEAK DENVER CONVERGENCE VORTICITY
ZONE MAY EVEN SEE A BRIEF LANDSPOUT TORNADO. ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WITH WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL IN THAT AREA AS WELL IF CAPES
REACH 1500 J/KG AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OVER/NEAR THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA.

MEANWHILE...THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WILL BE TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WITH COOLER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP AREAS NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM NEAR CHEYENNE WYOMING TO AKRON CAPPED AND DRY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EXIT THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY AS COOLER LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD STABILIZE THE PLAINS. THERE
WILL STILL LIKELY BE SOME CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND CREATE A DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE AREA
OF COLORADO. MODELS HAVE FAIR CONSISTENCY ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE
TIMING...BUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF RAIN GENERATED VARY
SOMEWHAT. MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOP AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN
FROM THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A PREFERENCE FOR A
BULLSEYE OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES.
MODEL RAINFALL IS GENERALLY IN THE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OVER
THE PLAINS...WITH MAXIMA OF TWO INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...SO WE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHING THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN THIS PERIOD AS IT APPEARS THAT MANY FAVORABLE
INGREDIENTS WILL EXIST AND THE FOCUS WILL BE ON AREAS WITH
INCREASED VULNERABILITY. NOT A SURE THING YET THOUGH AS THE FOCUS
MAY NOT REMAIN IN ONE PLACE AS LONG AS IS SHOWN...OR MAY BE
ELSEWHERE AS IN THE LATEST GFS THAT HAS THIS BAND FURTHER
SOUTHWEST AND MOSTLY MISSES OUR AREA. I DID RAISE POPS FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD AND WILL MENTION POSSIBLE FLOODING IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FOR LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN AS LOW LEVELS WILL BE COOL
AGAIN AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME WARMING ALOFT. STILL SOME
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH A RETURN TO FAVORING AREAS IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS OF 1500 TO 3000 FEET WILL SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE MORNING. BY 18Z...EXPECT CEILINGS TO RANGE FROM 3000
TO 5000 FEET. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE 22Z TO 02Z AT
KDEN...A LITTLE SOONER CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE.
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE WIND DIRECTION TO
CHANGE A FEW TIMES BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.1 INCH...WELL ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR JULY. IT WOULD TAKE 1.25 INCH AS SHOWN IN THE
WETTEST GFS SOLUTION TO REACH THE 2ND STANDARD DEVIATION OR NEAR
THE 95TH PERCENTILE. NOT LIKELY WE WILL SEE THAT...BUT STILL A
CHANCE WE COULD REACH THOSE NUMBERS WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE WARM CLOUD DEPTH
INCREASING TO ABOUT 5000 FT...SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINERS. AT THE
SAME TIME...NORTHWEST STEERING WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING CLOSE TO 15 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STORM
INFLOW IS QUITE WEAK. AT THIS POINT...MOST PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL
FOR FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING
1 INCH OF RAIN IN 20-30 MINUTES...BUT A SLOWER MOVING STORM COULD
PRODUCE 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF THESE
STRONGER STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY FARTHER SOUTH INTO
PUEBLOS FORECAST AREA FROM TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTY
SOUTHWARD...BUT DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE POOLING THERE IS
SOME THREAT ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR FAVORING
PARK...JEFFERSON...AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LATEST PW TRENDS BUT FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD STILL BE ISSUED FOR
THOSE AREAS.

AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEK WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER AN INCH...LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND A
FAVORABLE DIRECTION PROFILE...UPSLOPE WINDS...AND A DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER. MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WHEN MORE SUSTAINED LIFT COULD CREATE NUMEROUS SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. UPSLOPE WINDS WOULD FOCUS THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT
IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...MODELS CURRENTLY FAVOR
BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES WITH A WIDESPREAD TWO INCHES OF RAIN.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL IN A FEW HOURS. FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE BUT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND LESS
PERSISTENT SO THE FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER AND MORE LOCALIZED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH/GIMMESTAD





000
FXUS65 KBOU 271014
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
414 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS
PUSHING BACK TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL HELP SET THE STAGE
FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THE LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MORE
PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE FOR TODAY. WHILE CURRENT INTEGRATED
PW VALUES FROM GPS ARE MODEST AROUND 0.80 TO 0.90 INCH...LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN POOLING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH PERSISTENT BUT WEAK
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW. AT THIS TIME FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS MARGINAL
AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70...SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS. MAIN CHANGE IN THE LAST 12-24 HOURS IS FOR A WEAKER CAP
IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WHICH WOULD BRING A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING AND DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR ESPECIALLY FROM DENVER METRO SOUTHWARD. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND EROSION OF CAP WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BY WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE. WITH LOWER LCLS AND WEAK DENVER CONVERGENCE VORTICITY
ZONE MAY EVEN SEE A BRIEF LANDSPOUT TORNADO. ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WITH WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL IN THAT AREA AS WELL IF CAPES
REACH 1500 J/KG AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OVER/NEAR THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA.

MEANWHILE...THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WILL BE TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WITH COOLER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP AREAS NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM NEAR CHEYENNE WYOMING TO AKRON CAPPED AND DRY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EXIT THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY AS COOLER LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD STABILIZE THE PLAINS. THERE
WILL STILL LIKELY BE SOME CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND CREATE A DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE AREA
OF COLORADO. MODELS HAVE FAIR CONSISTENCY ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE
TIMING...BUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF RAIN GENERATED VARY
SOMEWHAT. MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOP AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN
FROM THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A PREFERENCE FOR A
BULLSEYE OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES.
MODEL RAINFALL IS GENERALLY IN THE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OVER
THE PLAINS...WITH MAXIMA OF TWO INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...SO WE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHING THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN THIS PERIOD AS IT APPEARS THAT MANY FAVORABLE
INGREDIENTS WILL EXIST AND THE FOCUS WILL BE ON AREAS WITH
INCREASED VULNERABILITY. NOT A SURE THING YET THOUGH AS THE FOCUS
MAY NOT REMAIN IN ONE PLACE AS LONG AS IS SHOWN...OR MAY BE
ELSEWHERE AS IN THE LATEST GFS THAT HAS THIS BAND FURTHER
SOUTHWEST AND MOSTLY MISSES OUR AREA. I DID RAISE POPS FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD AND WILL MENTION POSSIBLE FLOODING IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FOR LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN AS LOW LEVELS WILL BE COOL
AGAIN AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME WARMING ALOFT. STILL SOME
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH A RETURN TO FAVORING AREAS IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PATCHY STRATUS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK WITH
POTENTIAL CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FT AGL. CHANCE OF CEILINGS IS ABOUT
50-60% AT THIS TIME FROM 12Z/13Z-16Z. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS...SHOULD SEE CLOUD DECK LIFT TO SCT-BKN AROUND 4130 FT AGL
BY 18Z. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER AGAIN TODAY SO TEMPO
THUNDER AND VRB20G35KT WINDS WARRANTED FOR 21Z-02Z. STORMS WILL BE
LOWER BASED WITH HEAVY RAIN AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO 1-2SM
IN THUNDERSTORM CORES. STORM THREAT WILL DECREASE BY 03Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LOW THREAT AROUND 20-30 PERCENT OF MVFR
CEILINGS OR FOG AFTER 10Z MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME MAIN THREAT
WOULD BE NORTH OF THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.1 INCH...WELL ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR JULY. IT WOULD TAKE 1.25 INCH AS SHOWN IN THE
WETTEST GFS SOLUTION TO REACH THE 2ND STANDARD DEVIATION OR NEAR
THE 95TH PERCENTILE. NOT LIKELY WE WILL SEE THAT...BUT STILL A
CHANCE WE COULD REACH THOSE NUMBERS WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE WARM CLOUD DEPTH
INCREASING TO ABOUT 5000 FT...SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINERS. AT THE
SAME TIME...NORTHWEST STEERING WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING CLOSE TO 15 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STORM
INFLOW IS QUITE WEAK. AT THIS POINT...MOST PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL
FOR FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING
1 INCH OF RAIN IN 20-30 MINUTES...BUT A SLOWER MOVING STORM COULD
PRODUCE 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF THESE
STRONGER STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY FARTHER SOUTH INTO
PUEBLOS FORECAST AREA FROM TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTY
SOUTHWARD...BUT DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE POOLING THERE IS
SOME THREAT ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR FAVORING
PARK...JEFFERSON...AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LATEST PW TRENDS BUT FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD STILL BE ISSUED FOR
THOSE AREAS.

AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEK WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER AN INCH...LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND A
FAVORABLE DIRECTION PROFILE...UPSLOPE WINDS...AND A DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER. MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WHEN MORE SUSTAINED LIFT COULD CREATE NUMEROUS SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. UPSLOPE WINDS WOULD FOCUS THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT
IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...MODELS CURRENTLY FAVOR
BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES WITH A WIDESPREAD TWO INCHES OF RAIN.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL IN A FEW HOURS. FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE BUT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND LESS
PERSISTENT SO THE FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER AND MORE LOCALIZED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH/GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 271014
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
414 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS
PUSHING BACK TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL HELP SET THE STAGE
FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THE LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MORE
PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE FOR TODAY. WHILE CURRENT INTEGRATED
PW VALUES FROM GPS ARE MODEST AROUND 0.80 TO 0.90 INCH...LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN POOLING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH PERSISTENT BUT WEAK
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW. AT THIS TIME FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS MARGINAL
AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70...SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS. MAIN CHANGE IN THE LAST 12-24 HOURS IS FOR A WEAKER CAP
IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WHICH WOULD BRING A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING AND DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR ESPECIALLY FROM DENVER METRO SOUTHWARD. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND EROSION OF CAP WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BY WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE. WITH LOWER LCLS AND WEAK DENVER CONVERGENCE VORTICITY
ZONE MAY EVEN SEE A BRIEF LANDSPOUT TORNADO. ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WITH WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL IN THAT AREA AS WELL IF CAPES
REACH 1500 J/KG AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OVER/NEAR THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA.

MEANWHILE...THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WILL BE TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WITH COOLER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP AREAS NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM NEAR CHEYENNE WYOMING TO AKRON CAPPED AND DRY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EXIT THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY AS COOLER LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD STABILIZE THE PLAINS. THERE
WILL STILL LIKELY BE SOME CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND CREATE A DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE AREA
OF COLORADO. MODELS HAVE FAIR CONSISTENCY ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE
TIMING...BUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF RAIN GENERATED VARY
SOMEWHAT. MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOP AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN
FROM THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A PREFERENCE FOR A
BULLSEYE OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES.
MODEL RAINFALL IS GENERALLY IN THE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OVER
THE PLAINS...WITH MAXIMA OF TWO INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...SO WE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHING THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN THIS PERIOD AS IT APPEARS THAT MANY FAVORABLE
INGREDIENTS WILL EXIST AND THE FOCUS WILL BE ON AREAS WITH
INCREASED VULNERABILITY. NOT A SURE THING YET THOUGH AS THE FOCUS
MAY NOT REMAIN IN ONE PLACE AS LONG AS IS SHOWN...OR MAY BE
ELSEWHERE AS IN THE LATEST GFS THAT HAS THIS BAND FURTHER
SOUTHWEST AND MOSTLY MISSES OUR AREA. I DID RAISE POPS FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD AND WILL MENTION POSSIBLE FLOODING IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FOR LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN AS LOW LEVELS WILL BE COOL
AGAIN AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME WARMING ALOFT. STILL SOME
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH A RETURN TO FAVORING AREAS IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PATCHY STRATUS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK WITH
POTENTIAL CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FT AGL. CHANCE OF CEILINGS IS ABOUT
50-60% AT THIS TIME FROM 12Z/13Z-16Z. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS...SHOULD SEE CLOUD DECK LIFT TO SCT-BKN AROUND 4130 FT AGL
BY 18Z. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER AGAIN TODAY SO TEMPO
THUNDER AND VRB20G35KT WINDS WARRANTED FOR 21Z-02Z. STORMS WILL BE
LOWER BASED WITH HEAVY RAIN AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO 1-2SM
IN THUNDERSTORM CORES. STORM THREAT WILL DECREASE BY 03Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LOW THREAT AROUND 20-30 PERCENT OF MVFR
CEILINGS OR FOG AFTER 10Z MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME MAIN THREAT
WOULD BE NORTH OF THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.1 INCH...WELL ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR JULY. IT WOULD TAKE 1.25 INCH AS SHOWN IN THE
WETTEST GFS SOLUTION TO REACH THE 2ND STANDARD DEVIATION OR NEAR
THE 95TH PERCENTILE. NOT LIKELY WE WILL SEE THAT...BUT STILL A
CHANCE WE COULD REACH THOSE NUMBERS WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE WARM CLOUD DEPTH
INCREASING TO ABOUT 5000 FT...SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINERS. AT THE
SAME TIME...NORTHWEST STEERING WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING CLOSE TO 15 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STORM
INFLOW IS QUITE WEAK. AT THIS POINT...MOST PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL
FOR FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING
1 INCH OF RAIN IN 20-30 MINUTES...BUT A SLOWER MOVING STORM COULD
PRODUCE 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF THESE
STRONGER STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY FARTHER SOUTH INTO
PUEBLOS FORECAST AREA FROM TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTY
SOUTHWARD...BUT DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE POOLING THERE IS
SOME THREAT ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR FAVORING
PARK...JEFFERSON...AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LATEST PW TRENDS BUT FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD STILL BE ISSUED FOR
THOSE AREAS.

AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEK WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER AN INCH...LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND A
FAVORABLE DIRECTION PROFILE...UPSLOPE WINDS...AND A DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER. MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WHEN MORE SUSTAINED LIFT COULD CREATE NUMEROUS SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. UPSLOPE WINDS WOULD FOCUS THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT
IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...MODELS CURRENTLY FAVOR
BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES WITH A WIDESPREAD TWO INCHES OF RAIN.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL IN A FEW HOURS. FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE BUT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND LESS
PERSISTENT SO THE FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER AND MORE LOCALIZED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH/GIMMESTAD





000
FXUS65 KBOU 270138
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
738 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

STILL SCATTERED CONVECTION AT THIS TIME WITH A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK
STORMS. OVERALL CONVECTION TREND HAS BEEN DECREASING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL RUN POPS TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
FORM SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A MOIST SUBTROPICAL PLUME CIRCULATING AROUND THE TOP OF AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ON NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE
FUEL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY
PLAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL MOVE STORMS OFF THE FRONT
RANGE AND OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
LESS SUITABLE FOR STORM GROWTH. HAVE WITNESSED STORMS QUICKLY
COLLAPSING AS THEY MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. HOWEVER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FURTHER HEATING AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD
SEE STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO RISE WITH VALUES ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE NOW UP AROUND 1.10 INCH. AND WITH WEST-TO-EAST STORM
MOTIONS OF ONLY 15-20 MPH...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW HEAVY RAINERS
WITH UP OF AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN UNDER 30 MINS. MODEL
REFLECTIVITY AND QPF FIELDS SHOW AREAS OF PCPN SCATTERED ABOUT
THE CWA THROUGH MID-EVENING...THEN A DRAMATIC DROP OFF IN
ACTIVITY BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE FORMATION OF STRONG NIGHTTIME
INVERSION AS COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL IN ON EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY BNDRY LAYER FLOW.

ON SUNDAY..MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A LAYER OF SATURATED AIR
FORMING BETWEEN 800-650 MBS FROM THE FRONT RANGE EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THE PRODUCT OF A MOIST SELY LOW-LEVEL
GRADIENT FLOW. COULD SEE A FEW POCKETS OF FOG ON THE PLAINS
EARLY...BUT NOTHING NOTABLE. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES MODELS
SHOW THIS MOIST LAYER LIFTING/MIXING OUT ONLY TO REFORM AS A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD DESK BY THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WEST DURING THE DAY...FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WHICH HELPS TO ADVECT COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIR OVER THE PLAINS. AS A RESULT...STORM CHANCES TOMORROW WILL BE
LARGELY CONFINED TO THE MTNS...SOUTH PARK...SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...
NEARBY PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE. AND WITH PW AMOUNTS CONTINUING TO
CLIMB ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPLY ACRS SOUTH PARK AND THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS SINCE A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW FAVORS THESE LOCATIONS. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES NEXT 24 HOURS...LOOKING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS ESPLY EAST OF THE MTNS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THE PLAINS AND 60S/70S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. HOWEVER SHOULD LOW
UPSLOPE CLOUDS LINGER ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BEYOND MIDDAY...ITS
POSSIBLE TEMPS MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE STRETCHED FROM UTAH INTO NORTHERN
TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. IT SHIFTS A BIT EASTWARD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE IN. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE FIVE PERIODS. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS SHOW
WEAK UPWARD MOTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ADHERE TO NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN UPSLOPE EASTERLY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE REMAINS AMPLE THROUGH THE
PERIODS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGS ARE IN THE 0.70 TO 1.20 INCH
RANGE FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN
THEY INCREASE TO 0.80 TO 1.40 INCHES THE REST OF MONDAY WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL DEW POINT READINGS ARE PROGGED IN THE
50S F SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN THEY INCREASE INTO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S F INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME CAPE AROUND
SUNDAY EVENING MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE CAPE
FOR LATE DAY MONDAY AND LATE DAY TUESDAY IS 1000-2000 J/KG IN MANY
AREAS. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW PLENTY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE
CWA SUNDAY EVENING...LATE DAY MONDAY AND LATE DAY TUESDAY. WILL GO
WITH "CHANCE" POPS FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA SUNDAY EVENING. FOR
BOTH LATE DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WILL NEED 30-50% POPS FOR ALL
THE CWA. WILL EVEN KEEP SOME MINOR POPS GOING FOR THE 06-18Z
PERIODS BOTH DAYS. FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-2 C
WARMER THAN SUNDAY`S. TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-2 C COOLER. FOR THE
LATER DAYS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES
DOWN IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BY LATER THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
IS ORIENTED MORE NORTH-SOUTH AND THE AXIS BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD
FROM THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE WESTERN COLORADO BORDER. MOISTURE IS
PLENTIFUL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGINS DRYING OUT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ALL
FOUR DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 738 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 03Z. GOOD CHANCE
AT SEEING A WEAK SHOWER AND ONE MORE WIND DIRECTION CHANCE THROUGH
03Z. ONCE THE CONVECTION DIES OFF...WINDS WILL SETTLE AT SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY MORNING. BETWEEN 09Z TO 12Z...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FORM AROUND 12Z TO 14Z WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 2000 FEET. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

RAIN TOTALS OF 0.1 TO 0.3 INCH ARE PROBABLE WITH T-STORMS THROUGH
02Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH OF
RAIN FROM ISOLATED STORMS PASSING OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND NEARBY
PLAINS. STORMS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAY ALSO PRODUCE
SIMILAR RAIN AMOUNTS. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD END IN MOST AREAS BY
04Z THIS EVENING. ON SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SUCH AS SOUTH PARK
AND THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...RESULTING IN A GREATER CHANCE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCAL
AMOUNTS UP TO 1.25 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE
A COOLER AND LESS STABLE AIRMASS OVER REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RESULT IN FEWER STORMS AND LIGHTER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...BAKER/RJK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 270138
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
738 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

STILL SCATTERED CONVECTION AT THIS TIME WITH A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK
STORMS. OVERALL CONVECTION TREND HAS BEEN DECREASING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL RUN POPS TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
FORM SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A MOIST SUBTROPICAL PLUME CIRCULATING AROUND THE TOP OF AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ON NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE
FUEL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY
PLAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL MOVE STORMS OFF THE FRONT
RANGE AND OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
LESS SUITABLE FOR STORM GROWTH. HAVE WITNESSED STORMS QUICKLY
COLLAPSING AS THEY MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. HOWEVER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FURTHER HEATING AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD
SEE STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO RISE WITH VALUES ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE NOW UP AROUND 1.10 INCH. AND WITH WEST-TO-EAST STORM
MOTIONS OF ONLY 15-20 MPH...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW HEAVY RAINERS
WITH UP OF AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN UNDER 30 MINS. MODEL
REFLECTIVITY AND QPF FIELDS SHOW AREAS OF PCPN SCATTERED ABOUT
THE CWA THROUGH MID-EVENING...THEN A DRAMATIC DROP OFF IN
ACTIVITY BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE FORMATION OF STRONG NIGHTTIME
INVERSION AS COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL IN ON EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY BNDRY LAYER FLOW.

ON SUNDAY..MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A LAYER OF SATURATED AIR
FORMING BETWEEN 800-650 MBS FROM THE FRONT RANGE EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THE PRODUCT OF A MOIST SELY LOW-LEVEL
GRADIENT FLOW. COULD SEE A FEW POCKETS OF FOG ON THE PLAINS
EARLY...BUT NOTHING NOTABLE. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES MODELS
SHOW THIS MOIST LAYER LIFTING/MIXING OUT ONLY TO REFORM AS A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD DESK BY THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WEST DURING THE DAY...FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WHICH HELPS TO ADVECT COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIR OVER THE PLAINS. AS A RESULT...STORM CHANCES TOMORROW WILL BE
LARGELY CONFINED TO THE MTNS...SOUTH PARK...SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...
NEARBY PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE. AND WITH PW AMOUNTS CONTINUING TO
CLIMB ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPLY ACRS SOUTH PARK AND THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS SINCE A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW FAVORS THESE LOCATIONS. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES NEXT 24 HOURS...LOOKING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS ESPLY EAST OF THE MTNS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THE PLAINS AND 60S/70S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. HOWEVER SHOULD LOW
UPSLOPE CLOUDS LINGER ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BEYOND MIDDAY...ITS
POSSIBLE TEMPS MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE STRETCHED FROM UTAH INTO NORTHERN
TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. IT SHIFTS A BIT EASTWARD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE IN. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE FIVE PERIODS. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS SHOW
WEAK UPWARD MOTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ADHERE TO NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN UPSLOPE EASTERLY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE REMAINS AMPLE THROUGH THE
PERIODS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGS ARE IN THE 0.70 TO 1.20 INCH
RANGE FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN
THEY INCREASE TO 0.80 TO 1.40 INCHES THE REST OF MONDAY WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL DEW POINT READINGS ARE PROGGED IN THE
50S F SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN THEY INCREASE INTO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S F INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME CAPE AROUND
SUNDAY EVENING MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE CAPE
FOR LATE DAY MONDAY AND LATE DAY TUESDAY IS 1000-2000 J/KG IN MANY
AREAS. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW PLENTY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE
CWA SUNDAY EVENING...LATE DAY MONDAY AND LATE DAY TUESDAY. WILL GO
WITH "CHANCE" POPS FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA SUNDAY EVENING. FOR
BOTH LATE DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WILL NEED 30-50% POPS FOR ALL
THE CWA. WILL EVEN KEEP SOME MINOR POPS GOING FOR THE 06-18Z
PERIODS BOTH DAYS. FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-2 C
WARMER THAN SUNDAY`S. TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-2 C COOLER. FOR THE
LATER DAYS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES
DOWN IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BY LATER THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
IS ORIENTED MORE NORTH-SOUTH AND THE AXIS BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD
FROM THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE WESTERN COLORADO BORDER. MOISTURE IS
PLENTIFUL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGINS DRYING OUT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ALL
FOUR DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 738 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 03Z. GOOD CHANCE
AT SEEING A WEAK SHOWER AND ONE MORE WIND DIRECTION CHANCE THROUGH
03Z. ONCE THE CONVECTION DIES OFF...WINDS WILL SETTLE AT SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY MORNING. BETWEEN 09Z TO 12Z...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FORM AROUND 12Z TO 14Z WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 2000 FEET. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

RAIN TOTALS OF 0.1 TO 0.3 INCH ARE PROBABLE WITH T-STORMS THROUGH
02Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH OF
RAIN FROM ISOLATED STORMS PASSING OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND NEARBY
PLAINS. STORMS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAY ALSO PRODUCE
SIMILAR RAIN AMOUNTS. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD END IN MOST AREAS BY
04Z THIS EVENING. ON SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SUCH AS SOUTH PARK
AND THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...RESULTING IN A GREATER CHANCE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCAL
AMOUNTS UP TO 1.25 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE
A COOLER AND LESS STABLE AIRMASS OVER REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RESULT IN FEWER STORMS AND LIGHTER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...BAKER/RJK





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