000
FXUS65 KBOU 200213
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
813 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.SHORT TERM...AN ISOLD HIGH BASED TSTM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED
OVER NERN WELD COUNTY. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS IS RATHER CAPPED OVER THE
NERN PLAINS COULD SEE AN ADDITITIONAL STORM OR TWO THROUGH 06Z.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.


.AVIATION...PESKY DENVER CYCLONE CONTINUES WITH MAIN LOW OVER THE
WRN SUBURBS WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR GUSTY SSE WINDS AT DIA. LATEST
RAP MOVES THIS FEATURE INTO NRN WELD BY MIDNIGHT WITH SSW WINDS
DEVELOPING BY 06Z. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
AFTER 12Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NNE BY 14Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013/

SHORT TERM...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SCOURING OUT FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EVEN WHERE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS HANGING ON...THE AIRMASS WAS MODERATELY CAPPED.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP WHERE
BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS. THIS WOULD BE NEAR INTERSECTION
OF DRYLINE PUSHING EAST TO NEAR WASHINGTON COUNTY AND EASTERN EDGE
OF DENVER CONVERGENCE ZONE IN MORGAN COUNTY. IF STORMS DEVELOP...
THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH SB CAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG. THERE
WILL BE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BUT EVEN THEN MIXED LAYER CAPES WOULD
BE CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG.

A WEAK BUT DRY COOL FRONT WILL BACK ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT COOLING OF A
COUPLE DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...AND
INCREASING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO MORE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS VALLEYS AND PALMER DIVIDE
AREA...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA...IN PARTICULAR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND PALMER
DIVIDE...BEFORE DECREASING BY MIDNIGHT. HUMIDITY READINGS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE AIRMASS COOLS. RED FLAG WARNING MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH 02Z STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. DRY
AIRMASS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH MOSTLY 40S MOUNTAINS.
ON FRIDAY... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. MODELS INDICATE A
SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT BY THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY LEAD
TO A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. IN ADDITION THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THAT COULD LIMIT MIXING.
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. MODELS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING...THEN SCOUR
OUT THE MOISTURE BY THE AFTERNOON. FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED WITH SOME INCREASE IN WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HOISTING OF
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES DUE TO ONGOING WARNINGS. ON SATURDAY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE AS MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. WEAK FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH SLIGHT COOLING AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. MODELS ALSO INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL QG ASCENT
OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW STORMS. FOR SUNDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE
WESTERLY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MONTANA. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY
DRIER THOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE
LATER DAYS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITION. THERE ARE
HINTS AT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT. AIRMASS LOOKS DRY SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KDEN AND KAPA WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE THROUGH 02Z-04Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. STILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WINDS SWITCHING TO A MORE NORTHERLY/
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION 23Z-03Z IF DENVER CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTS
BACK SOUTHWARD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR WEAK
BUT DRY FRONT TO SWITCH WINDS TO NORTHEASTERLY 12Z-15Z THURSDAY.
THEN DIURNAL BUT STRONGER THAN NORMAL EASTERLIES EXPECTED IN THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH NO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

FIRE WEATHER...MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THIS EVENING...AND THEN UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN. THEY WILL LIKELY BE JUST A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES TO
PROVIDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND
EVENTUALLY PALMER DIVIDE WHERE FUELS WILL EXHIBIT FURTHER DRYING
AFTER YESTERDAYS RAINS. FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ211-213-
214-241.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....D-L
AVIATION...RPK

000
FXUS65 KBOU 192129
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
329 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SCOURING OUT FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EVEN WHERE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS HANGING ON...THE AIRMASS WAS MODERATELY CAPPED.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP WHERE
BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS. THIS WOULD BE NEAR INTERSECTION
OF DRYLINE PUSHING EAST TO NEAR WASHINGTON COUNTY AND EASTERN EDGE
OF DENVER CONVERGENCE ZONE IN MORGAN COUNTY. IF STORMS DEVELOP...
THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH SB CAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG. THERE
WILL BE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BUT EVEN THEN MIXED LAYER CAPES WOULD
BE CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG.

A WEAK BUT DRY COOL FRONT WILL BACK ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT COOLING OF A
COUPLE DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...AND
INCREASING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO MORE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS VALLEYS AND PALMER DIVIDE
AREA...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA...IN PARTICULAR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND PALMER
DIVIDE...BEFORE DECREASING BY MIDNIGHT. HUMIDITY READINGS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE AIRMASS COOLS. RED FLAG WARNING MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH 02Z STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. DRY
AIRMASS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH MOSTLY 40S MOUNTAINS.
ON FRIDAY... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. MODELS INDICATE A
SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT BY THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY LEAD
TO A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. IN ADDITION THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THAT COULD LIMIT MIXING.
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. MODELS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING...THEN SCOUR
OUT THE MOISTURE BY THE AFTERNOON. FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED WITH SOME INCREASE IN WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HOISTING OF
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES DUE TO ONGOING WARNINGS. ON SATURDAY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE AS MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. WEAK FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH SLIGHT COOLING AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. MODELS ALSO INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL QG ASCENT
OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW STORMS. FOR SUNDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE
WESTERLY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MONTANA. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY
DRIER THOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE
LATER DAYS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITION. THERE ARE
HINTS AT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT. AIRMASS LOOKS DRY SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KDEN AND KAPA WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE THROUGH 02Z-04Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. STILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WINDS SWITCHING TO A MORE NORTHERLY/
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION 23Z-03Z IF DENVER CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTS
BACK SOUTHWARD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR WEAK
BUT DRY FRONT TO SWITCH WINDS TO NORTHEASTERLY 12Z-15Z THURSDAY.
THEN DIURNAL BUT STRONGER THAN NORMAL EASTERLIES EXPECTED IN THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH NO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THIS EVENING...AND THEN UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN. THEY WILL LIKELY BE JUST A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES TO
PROVIDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND
EVENTUALLY PALMER DIVIDE WHERE FUELS WILL EXHIBIT FURTHER DRYING
AFTER YESTERDAYS RAINS. FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ211-213-214.

RED FLAG WARNING NOON UNTIL 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
COZ211-213-214-241.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....D-L
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS65 KBOU 191552
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
952 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND PER 12Z KDNR
SOUNDING AND LATEST PW TRENDS SHOWING ABOUT 0.25 INCH DECREASE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SCOUR OUT TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT
WILL LIKELY HOLD IN AREAS ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM STERLING TO
AKRON. WILL KEEP A LOW THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE...BUT WITH
SURFACE BASED CAPES OVER 2500 J/KG ANY STORMS THAT FIRE COULD
EASILY BECOME SEVERE.  DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FIRE DANGER ON TRACK TO INCREASE WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL BE MOST PRONE DUE TO
COMBINATION OF VERY LOW RH...WINDS...AND DRY FUELS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNINGS THERE. HELD OFF ON THE PALMER
DIVIDE FOR NOW TODAY CONSIDERING LAST NIGHTS RAIN SHOULD DELAY
POSSIBLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS UNTIL THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FORECAST ON TRACK. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z-02Z. THERE A DENVER
CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING NORTH OF KDEN...WHICH WOULD
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF KEEPING LIGHTER WINDS AT KBJC. KDEN COULD
SEE AN EVENTUAL TURN TO A MORE WESTERLY OR NORTHERLY DIRECTION IF
BOUNDARY SINKS THIS WAY SO WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY
STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL TRANSPORT WARM AND VERY DRY DESERT AIR INTO
THE STATE TODAY. HIGHS WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY WITH MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 SEEING SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS MIXES UP TO 500 MB.
EXPECT WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS INCLUDING
PARK COUNTY.

A SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. TO THE WEST
OF IT AND FOR MOST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN WILL CAUSE
DEW POINTS TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. EAST OF IT...DEW
POINTS WILL BE ABLE TO STAY IN THE 50S PRODUCING CAPES OF 2000 J/KG
OR POTENTIALLY HIGHER. SO IF ANY STORMS CAN FORM AND RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA...THEY MAY BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS THREAT WILL BE
OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.

LONG TERM...MODEL KEEP SHOWING A STRONG UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUR FORECAST AREA STAYS IN 30-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALL
FOUR PERIODS. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS NEUTRAL TO WEAK UPWARD
IN NATURE FOR THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND IT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT...NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS ARE PROGGED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
IS VERY LIMITED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...JUST A BIT IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY. THE NAM SHOWS A BIT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GFS DOES
NOT. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK VERY DRY AGAIN...JUST A TAD OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL DEW
POINT READINGS ARE PROGGED IN THE 20-35 F RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THEY ARE A BIT OVER 40 F OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
..THE NAM AND GFS BRING 50S F DEW POINTS INTO THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE PLAINS. MODELS PUSH THIS MOISTURE EAST OF THE CWA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM BRINGS IN BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT. AS
PER NORMAL...THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A HANDLE ON WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE. THE ONLY CAPE IS OVER THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST BORDER AREAS BOTH LATE DAY THURSDAY AND LATE DAY FRIDAY.
THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A TAD OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE FAR
CORNER...THAT`S IT. THE LAPSE RATE FIELDS HAVE A STRONG MID LEVEL
CAP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. ON FRIDAY...THERE IS WAY
LESS OF A CAP OVER ALL AREAS. FOR POPS...COULD GO WITH "SLIGHT
CHANCE"S OVER THE FAR EAST BOTH DAYS IF THE MOISTURE WILL BE THERE
..BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT THIS UPDATE...BECAUSE I DON`T KNOW.
CONCERNING THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL...WILL LEAVE THE WATCH GOING
OVER SOUTH PARK AND PALMER RIDGE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH NOTHING CONCLUSIVE IN THE NEW 00Z DATA TO SAY
OTHERWISE. IT`S MARGINAL OVER THE PALMER AS FAR AS WINDS GO...BUT
IS CERTAINLY SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH. SOUTH PARK`S PROGGED WINDS ARE
SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND IT IS WILL BE DRY THERE AS WELL. FOR
TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S HIGHS LOOK 1-2 C COOLER THAN TODAY`S.
FRIDAY`S HIGHS COME BACK UP 1-2 C FROM THURSDAY`S. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS
SOUTHWESTERLY ALL FOUR DAYS. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S.
IS PROGGED TO FINALLY PUSH EASTWARD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A
BIT OF ENERGY MAY ACTUALLY GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR
SLIGHT POPS LATE DAY SATURDAY AND LATE DAY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE ABOVE NORMALS.


AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. THERE IS A
DENVER CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF DENVER...SO CONFIDENCE IN WIND
DIRECTION IS ON THE LOW SIDE. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES EAST...WINDS MAY
TURN TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST FOR TIME BETWEEN 12-18Z. TOO DRY TODAY
FOR STORMS...AND JUST EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.

HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ214-241.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ211-213-214.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS65 KBOU 190933
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
333 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL TRANSPORT WARM AND VERY DRY DESERT AIR INTO
THE STATE TODAY. HIGHS WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY WITH MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 SEEING SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS MIXES UP TO 500 MB.
EXPECT WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS INCLUDING
PARK COUNTY.

A SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. TO THE WEST
OF IT AND FOR MOST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN WILL CAUSE
DEW POINTS TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. EAST OF IT...DEW
POINTS WILL BE ABLE TO STAY IN THE 50S PRODUCING CAPES OF 2000 J/KG
OR POTENTIALLY HIGHER. SO IF ANY STORMS CAN FORM AND RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA...THEY MAY BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS THREAT WILL BE
OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...MODEL KEEP SHOWING A STRONG UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUR FORECAST AREA STAYS IN 30-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALL
FOUR PERIODS. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS NEUTRAL TO WEAK UPWARD
IN NATURE FOR THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND IT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT...NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS ARE PROGGED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
IS VERY LIMITED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...JUST A BIT IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY. THE NAM SHOWS A BIT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GFS DOES
NOT. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK VERY DRY AGAIN...JUST A TAD OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL DEW
POINT READINGS ARE PROGGED IN THE 20-35 F RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THEY ARE A BIT OVER 40 F OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
...THE NAM AND GFS BRING 50S F DEW POINTS INTO THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE PLAINS. MODELS PUSH THIS MOISTURE EAST OF THE CWA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM BRINGS IN BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT. AS
PER NORMAL...THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A HANDLE ON WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE. THE ONLY CAPE IS OVER THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST BORDER AREAS BOTH LATE DAY THURSDAY AND LATE DAY FRIDAY.
THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A TAD OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE FAR
CORNER...THAT`S IT. THE LAPSE RATE FIELDS HAVE A STRONG MID LEVEL
CAP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. ON FRIDAY...THERE IS WAY
LESS OF A CAP OVER ALL AREAS. FOR POPS...COULD GO WITH "SLIGHT
CHANCE"S OVER THE FAR EAST BOTH DAYS IF THE MOISTURE WILL BE THERE
...BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT THIS UPDATE...BECAUSE I DON`T KNOW.
CONCERNING THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL...WILL LEAVE THE WATCH GOING
OVER SOUTH PARK AND PALMER RIDGE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH NOTHING CONCLUSIVE IN THE NEW 00Z DATA TO SAY
OTHERWISE. IT`S MARGINAL OVER THE PALMER AS FAR AS WINDS GO...BUT
IS CERTAINLY SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH. SOUTH PARK`S PROGGED WINDS ARE
SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND IT IS WILL BE DRY THERE AS WELL. FOR
TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S HIGHS LOOK 1-2 C COOLER THAN TODAY`S.
FRIDAY`S HIGHS COME BACK UP 1-2 C FROM THURSDAY`S. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS
SOUTHWESTERLY ALL FOUR DAYS. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S.
IS PROGGED TO FINALLY PUSH EASTWARD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A
BIT OF ENERGY MAY ACTUALLY GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR
SLIGHT POPS LATE DAY SATURDAY AND LATE DAY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. THERE IS A
DENVER CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF DENVER...SO CONFIDENCE IN WIND
DIRECTION IS ON THE LOW SIDE. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES EAST...WINDS MAY
TURN TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST FOR TIME BETWEEN 12-18Z. TOO DRY TODAY
FOR STORMS...AND JUST EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ214-241.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...MEIER

000
FXUS65 KBOU 190231
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
831 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...SEVERE STORM THREAT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BACK
BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTION...BUT THIS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
GOING FORECAST IS GOOD. DID BUMP UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH WARMING ALOFT AND LACK OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE AREA TIL AROUND
04-05Z...THEN CLEARING SKIES AND NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN YET THIS EVENING WITH NO
THREATS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

SHORT TERM...FELT LIKE IT WAS BACK IN THE 1980S AS THE DENVER
CYCLONE DID ITS THING WITH A TORNADO FORMING RIGHT OVER THE
AIRPORT. VERY INTERESTING TOTAL LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED RAMP UP
PRIOR TO FIRST INDICATIONS OF CIRCULATION FORMING DOWN LOW. CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE RADAR ALLOWED FOR SOME LEAD TIME WITH A NICE
HOOK STRUCTURE ESPECIALLY ON THE TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR. THINGS
ARE REALLY DRYING OUT BEHIND THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS WHICH IS
NOW EAST OF DIA. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS
THIS AREA OF STORMS HEADS INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WITH DEW
POINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S. DECENT SHEAR SO CANNOT RULE OUT
SUPERCELLS BUT AN MCS COMPLEX MAY BE MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE
EVENING EAST OF LIMON. CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM BACK
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BUT THINGS REALLY DRYING OUT IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE AND NOT SEVERE AT THIS
POINT.

WARMER DAY TOMORROW AND MOSTLY DRIER WITH MORE OF A DRY LINE
SETTING UP WELL EAST OF DENVER. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR FARTHER EAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES SOME THERE WITH LESS DRYING THEN EARLIER
THOUGHT. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE WINDS WILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH OR MOISTURE LOW ENOUGH FOR FIRE WEATHER THREAT TOMORROW BUT
INSTEAD SOUTHERN PORTION MORE ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER WEDNESDAY EVENING IN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WINDS WITH BRIEF MODERATE RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH
CLEARING SKIES BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH A WEAKENING
SURFACE GRADIENT. ON THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
THIS WILL SPREAD WARMER AND DRIER AIR INTO COLORADO. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BY AFTERNOON...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MIXING ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE TO CREATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND HELP FLUSH OUT THE MOISTURE. THIS COULD CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. OTHER AREA OF CONCERN
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTH PARK. WILL BE HOISTING A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR SOUTH PARK AND THE PALMER DIVIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. HELD OFF ON
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS... ZONE 36...AS THE CRITICAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIMITED TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
ZONE. WINDS TO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN HUMIDITY...ALLOWING FOR AN IMPROVEMENT IN FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FOR FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH UPPER TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
WINDS ALOFT. ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD CREATE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE FIRE DANGER ELEVATED. ON
SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE WESTERLY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS IDAHO AND MONTANA. MODELS PUSH A WEAK FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS WITH SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. APPEARS BEST LOCATION FOR ANY CONVECTION
TO BE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE.
AIRMASS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM THE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD. ON
SUNDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO PREVAIL. AIRMASS COOL BUT MOISTURE
LOOKING LIMITED. STILL SOME MOISTURE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE. WILL ADD A FEW STORMS THERE. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL WITH COOL AIRMASS CONTINUING. FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...RIDGE BUILDS OVER AREA WITH WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...TORNADO MOVED RIGHT OVER DIA ASOS WITH 97 MPH GUST.
STORM DEVELOPED ALONG DCVZ AFTER APPARENT INTERSECTION WITH
OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEVERE THREAT HAS NOW SHIFTED TO THE
EAST. SOME WEAK CELLS TRYING TO FORM OVER THE FOOTHILLS BUT LOTS
OF DRYING EVIDENT IN THE OBS SO LOW CHANCE UNLESS OUTFLOW COMES
BACK WESTWARD LATER. WINDS SHOULD GO DRAINAGE LATE THEN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TOMORROW AND ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE
EAST.

HYDROLOGY...COULD BE SOME HEAVIER RAINS AS THE CELLS FORM A
COMPLEX EAST OF LIMON WITH SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE
OBS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-76.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ214-241.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....D-L
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS65 KBOU 182154
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
354 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...FELT LIKE IT WAS BACK IN THE 1980S AS THE DENVER
CYCLONE DID ITS THING WITH A TORNADO FORMING RIGHT OVER THE
AIRPORT. VERY INTERESTING TOTAL LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED RAMP UP
PRIOR TO FIRST INDICATIONS OF CIRCULATION FORMING DOWN LOW. CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE RADAR ALLOWED FOR SOME LEAD TIME WITH A NICE
HOOK STRUCTURE ESPECIALLY ON THE TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR. THINGS
ARE REALLY DRYING OUT BEHIND THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS WHICH IS
NOW EAST OF DIA. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS
THIS AREA OF STORMS HEADS INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WITH DEW
POINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S. DECENT SHEAR SO CANNOT RULE OUT
SUPERCELLS BUT AN MCS COMPLEX MAY BE MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE
EVENING EAST OF LIMON. CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM BACK
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BUT THINGS REALLY DRYING OUT IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE AND NOT SEVERE AT THIS
POINT.

WARMER DAY TOMORROW AND MOSTLY DRIER WITH MORE OF A DRY LINE
SETTING UP WELL EAST OF DENVER. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR FARTHER EAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES SOME THERE WITH LESS DRYING THEN EARLIER
THOUGHT. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE WINDS WILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH OR MOISTURE LOW ENOUGH FOR FIRE WEATHER THREAT TOMORROW BUT
INSTEAD SOUTHERN PORTION MORE ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER WEDNESDAY EVENING IN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WINDS WITH BRIEF MODERATE RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH
CLEARING SKIES BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH A WEAKENING
SURFACE GRADIENT. ON THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
THIS WILL SPREAD WARMER AND DRIER AIR INTO COLORADO. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BY AFTERNOON...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MIXING ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE TO CREATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND HELP FLUSH OUT THE MOISTURE. THIS COULD CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. OTHER AREA OF CONCERN
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTH PARK. WILL BE HOISTING A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR SOUTH PARK AND THE PALMER DIVIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. HELD OFF ON
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS... ZONE 36...AS THE CRITICAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIMITED TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
ZONE. WINDS TO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN HUMIDITY...ALLOWING FOR AN IMPROVEMENT IN FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FOR FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH UPPER TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
WINDS ALOFT. ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD CREATE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE FIRE DANGER ELEVATED. ON
SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE WESTERLY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS IDAHO AND MONTANA. MODELS PUSH A WEAK FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS WITH SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. APPEARS BEST LOCATION FOR ANY CONVECTION
TO BE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE.
AIRMASS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM THE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD. ON
SUNDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO PREVAIL. AIRMASS COOL BUT MOISTURE
LOOKING LIMITED. STILL SOME MOISTURE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE. WILL ADD A FEW STORMS THERE. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL WITH COOL AIRMASS CONTINUING. FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...RIDGE BUILDS OVER AREA WITH WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...TORNADO MOVED RIGHT OVER DIA ASOS WITH 97 MPH GUST.
STORM DEVELOPED ALONG DCVZ AFTER APPARENT INTERSECTION WITH
OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEVERE THREAT HAS NOW SHIFTED TO THE
EAST. SOME WEAK CELLS TRYING TO FORM OVER THE FOOTHILLS BUT LOTS
OF DRYING EVIDENT IN THE OBS SO LOW CHANCE UNLESS OUTFLOW COMES
BACK WESTWARD LATER. WINDS SHOULD GO DRAINAGE LATE THEN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TOMORROW AND ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE
EAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...COULD BE SOME HEAVIER RAINS AS THE CELLS FORM A
COMPLEX EAST OF LIMON WITH SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE
OBS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-76.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ214-241.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SZOKE
LONG TERM....D-L
AVIATION...SZOKE

000
FXUS65 KBOU 181757
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1157 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF UTAH IS HELPING TO FIRE
EARLY THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE LOWER
FOOTHILLS. 12Z DENVER SOUNDING WAS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BUT GPS
PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDS HAVE BEEN DOWNWARD THIS MORNING THOUGH
NOW LEVELING OFF NEAR 0.6 INCHES WHICH IS DOWN A BIT FROM THE
SOUNDING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO COME DOWN SOME ON THE PLAINS
WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S GENERALLY. SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS PRODUCED
A MODEST DENVER CYCLONE WITH THE CONVERGENCE LINE NEAR DIA. NO
RECENT HRRR RUN BUT EARLIER RUNS SHOWED THE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION THAT WE ARE SEEING NOW. THIS ALSO AGREES WITH HI
RESOLUTION NCEP MODEL RUNS. STILL EXPECT THE MOST ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY TO BE GENERALLY EAST OF DIA TO GREELEY AND POSSIBLY
FAVORING MORE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE PLAINS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I70
WHERE MOISTURE LOOKS DEEPER. ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SOME SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT AND ADDED ISOLATED TORNADOES TO THE HWO. WITH THE
DENVER CYCLONE CANNOT ELIMINATE SAME THREAT NEAR DIA ALTHOUGH AT
THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOWER THREAT END.

&&

.AVIATION...MOVED CHANCE OF STORMS UP A COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON
ITEMS NOTED ABOVE. WINDS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY BUT AFTER
COORIDNATION WITH CWSU WE SETTLED ON DCVZ BOUNDARY SLIPPING BY
AIRPORT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF
DENVER WITH STORMS FARTHER EAST POSSIBLY PRODUCING MORE DECENT
RAINS. RIGHT NOW ANY FOOTHILLS STORMS NOT LIKELY TO BE WORRISOME
FOR BURN AREAS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE WEAK RIDGE THAT`S BEEN OVER
COLORADO EAST. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER UTAH. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HELPING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 0.10 TO
0.25 INCHES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READIES RANGING FROM 0.60 TO
1.00 INCHES EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN
ADDITION TO THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF LINE
FROM GREELEY TO DIA WHERE CAPES WILL BE 1000-2000 J/KG. STILL ENOUGH
SHEAR IN PLACE FOR A FEW SUPER CELL THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND ALONG THE URBAN FRONT RANGE CORRIDOR...CAPES WILL BE 500-1000
J/KG. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE SAME BALL PARK AS YESTERDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL BRING CONVECTION TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST. THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S TONIGHT WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COVER COLORADO
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF COLORADO. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO BE BENIGN
ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ADHERE TO NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS FOR THE MOST PART WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
A WEAK SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BEFORE
NOON THURSDAY WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...NORMAL PATTERNS RETURN. THE CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MINIMAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT PROGGS SHOW ALL BUT THE FAR EAST OF THE
CWA IN PRETTY DRY READINGS...MOSTLY UNDER 40S F ALL FOUR PERIODS.
THERE ARE SOME 40S TO LOWER 50S F READINGS OVER THE BORDER AREAS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN THEY DECREASE AFTER THAT.
THE ONLY CAPE IS PROGGED OVER THE FAR EASTERN BORDER AREA LATE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND LATE DAY THURSDAY. VALUES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT. THERE
IS ONLY A TAD OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL PROGGED ON THE QPF FIELDS OF
THE ECMWF ONLY LATE DAY WEDNESDAY AND LATE DAY THURSDAY. WILL GO
WITH NO POPS. FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE ARE 3-6 C
WARMER THAN TODAY`S. THURSDAY`S HIGHS COOL OFF A TAD...1-2 C FROM
WEDNESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FLOW
ALOFT STAYS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY. THERE IS MINIMAL MOISTURE...AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.


AVIATION...THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR
NORTHERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THEM MAKING
IT TO THE DENVER AREA...WILL MENTION A FEW AT 2000 FEET IN THE TAFS
FOR THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THEM MAKING IT INTO THE DENVER AREA. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 17Z WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z. HEAVY
RAIN...HAIL AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL END AROUND 02Z.

HYDROLOGY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE PREVIOUS
AFTERNOONS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
THE BURN SCARS. THERE MAY BE SHORT LIVED HEAVY RAIN...BUT THE THREAT
FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE BURN AREAS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SZOKE
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99

000
FXUS65 KBOU 180919
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
319 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE WEAK RIDGE THAT`S BEEN OVER
COLORADO EAST. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER UTAH. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HELPING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 0.10 TO
0.25 INCHES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READIES RANGING FROM 0.60 TO
1.00 INCHES EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN
ADDITION TO THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF LINE
FROM GREELEY TO DIA WHERE CAPES WILL BE 1000-2000 J/KG. STILL ENOUGH
SHEAR IN PLACE FOR A FEW SUPER CELL THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND ALONG THE URBAN FRONT RANGE CORRIDOR...CAPES WILL BE 500-1000
J/KG. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE SAME BALL PARK AS YESTERDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL BRING CONVECTION TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST. THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S TONIGHT WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COVER COLORADO
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF COLORADO. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO BE BENIGN
ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ADHERE TO NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS FOR THE MOST PART WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
A WEAK SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BEFORE
NOON THURSDAY WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...NORMAL PATTERNS RETURN. THE CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MINIMAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT PROGGS SHOW ALL BUT THE FAR EAST OF THE
CWA IN PRETTY DRY READINGS...MOSTLY UNDER 40S F ALL FOUR PERIODS.
THERE ARE SOME 40S TO LOWER 50S F READINGS OVER THE BORDER AREAS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN THEY DECREASE AFTER THAT.
THE ONLY CAPE IS PROGGED OVER THE FAR EASTERN BORDER AREA LATE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND LATE DAY THURSDAY. VALUES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT. THERE
IS ONLY A TAD OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL PROGGED ON THE QPF FIELDS OF
THE ECMWF ONLY LATE DAY WEDNESDAY AND LATE DAY THURSDAY. WILL GO
WITH NO POPS. FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE ARE 3-6 C
WARMER THAN TODAY`S. THURSDAY`S HIGHS COOL OFF A TAD...1-2 C FROM
WEDNESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FLOW
ALOFT STAYS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY. THERE IS MINIMAL MOISTURE...AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR
NORTHERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THEM MAKING
IT TO THE DENVER AREA...WILL MENTION A FEW AT 2000 FEET IN THE TAFS
FOR THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THEM MAKING IT INTO THE DENVER AREA. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 17Z WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z. HEAVY
RAIN...HAIL AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL END AROUND 02Z.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE PREVIOUS
AFTERNOONS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
THE BURN SCARS. THERE MAY BE SHORT LIVED HEAVY RAIN...BUT THE THREAT
FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE BURN AREAS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...MEIER

000
FXUS65 KBOU 180054
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
654 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST PLAINS CONVECTION IS MOVING BACK
TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE AND WILL HIT THE FOOTHILLS AROUND 8 TO 830
PM. THERE IS SOME CUMULUS ON THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND AIRMASS
HAS RECOVERED SLIGHTLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION SO WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FRONT RANGE METRO AREAS AND FOOTHILLS THIS
EVENING. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS
WILL BE DECREASING BY 8 PM. THE THREAT HAS DECREASED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE ENOUGH TO CANCEL THE WATCH. STORMS MAY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH NEXT ORGANIZED BATCH OF
CONVECTION NOW SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL WYOMING
AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...BOUNDARY WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH
BACK ACROSS KDEN BY 0130Z AND THEN REACH KBJC AND KAPA AROUND 02Z.
WINDS WILL THEN LIKELY TURN MORE EASTERLY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE.
JUST A SLIGHT RISK OF STORM REDEVELOPMENT AS BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO
THE FOOTHILLS 0200Z-0300Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013/

SHORT TERM...88D AND AREA RADARS INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE AND
ELEVATED TERRAIN OF PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTH OVER THE CYS RIDGE.
GIVEN THE WEAK SURGE OF INCREASING MOISTURE THIS MORNING...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO HOLD UP IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE PLAINS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. STRONGEST STORMS
STILL EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS WITH BETTER SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
INFLOW AND SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1000-2000J/KG. MAIN THREATS OF
LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCH IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS.

STORMS WILL END LATER THIS EVENING THE MODELS SHOWING A VARYING
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING WEST OF EASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY WILL BE OUR LAST DAY FOR A WHILE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THE PLAINS WITH DECENT
SOUTHEAST AND MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND CAPES UP TO 2000J/KG.

LONG TERM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY EVENING... MAINLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UPSLOPE FLOW. CAPE VALUES
LOWER TO AROUND 1000 J/KG DURING THE EVENING. BUT ENOUGH SHEAR
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH HAIL AND WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERNS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND EIGHT TENTHS OF AN
INCH ACROSS THE PLAINS... BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE EVENING WITH
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. A FEW STORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SHOW LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE NO STORMS EXPECTED.
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ENOUGH MIXING TO ALLOW SOME GUSTY WINDS
TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHER WINDS ACROSS
SOUTH PARK AND THE PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY
READINGS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS WHICH WILL ELEVATE THE
FIRE DANGER. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME
AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINS TODAY AND TUESDAY
WHICH COULD EASE THE FIRE DANGER. ON THURSDAY...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES WHICH WILL INCREASE SURFACE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. AIRMASS WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER...WHICH WILL KEEP THE
FIRE DANGER ELEVATED WITH POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS...PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTH PARK.

FOR THE LATER DAYS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY....MODERATE SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO CONTINUE...THOUGH A BIT WEAKER. MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS IDAHO AND MONTANA DURING THE WEEKEND. SURFACE
FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING WITH
SOME COOLING AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COULD SEE A
RETURN OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. AIRMASS LOOKING
A BIT DRY FOR MONDAY AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE FLUSHED EASTWARD.
WILL KEEP MONDAY VOID OF STORMS FOR NOW.

AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD
EFFECT TERMINALS BETWEEN 21-23Z AND ALREADY HAVE TEMPO FOR TSRA IN
THE TAFS. UNSURE HOW MUCH STRATUS AND FOG WILL MAKE IT BACK IN
LATER TONIGHT AND FOR NOW JUST INDICATED SCATTERED LOWER DECK OF
CLOUDS.

HYDROLOGY...SOME STRONG STORMS OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS BUT
STORMS ARE MOVING AT A DECENT CLIP AND EXPECT MOST STORMS TO
PRODUCE A QUARTER INCH IN 30 MINUTES WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OVER
THE FOOTHILLS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....D-L
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS65 KBOU 172144
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
344 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...88D AND AREA RADARS INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE AND
ELEVATED TERRAIN OF PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTH OVER THE CYS RIDGE.
GIVEN THE WEAK SURGE OF INCREASING MOISTURE THIS MORNING...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO HOLD UP IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE PLAINS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. STRONGEST STORMS
STILL EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS WITH BETTER SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
INFLOW AND SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1000-2000J/KG. MAIN THREATS OF
LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCH IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS.

STORMS WILL END LATER THIS EVENING THE MODELS SHOWING A VARYING
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING WEST OF EASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY WILL BE OUR LAST DAY FOR A WHILE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THE PLAINS WITH DECENT
SOUTHEAST AND MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND CAPES UP TO 2000J/KG.

.LONG TERM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY EVENING... MAINLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UPSLOPE FLOW. CAPE VALUES
LOWER TO AROUND 1000 J/KG DURING THE EVENING. BUT ENOUGH SHEAR
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH HAIL AND WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERNS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND EIGHT TENTHS OF AN
INCH ACROSS THE PLAINS... BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE EVENING WITH
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. A FEW STORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SHOW LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE NO STORMS EXPECTED.
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ENOUGH MIXING TO ALLOW SOME GUSTY WINDS
TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHER WINDS ACROSS
SOUTH PARK AND THE PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY
READINGS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS WHICH WILL ELEVATE THE
FIRE DANGER. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME
AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINS TODAY AND TUESDAY
WHICH COULD EASE THE FIRE DANGER. ON THURSDAY...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES WHICH WILL INCREASE SURFACE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. AIRMASS WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER...WHICH WILL KEEP THE
FIRE DANGER ELEVATED WITH POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS...PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTH PARK.

FOR THE LATER DAYS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY....MODERATE SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO CONTINUE...THOUGH A BIT WEAKER. MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS IDAHO AND MONTANA DURING THE WEEKEND. SURFACE
FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING WITH
SOME COOLING AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COULD SEE A
RETURN OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. AIRMASS LOOKING
A BIT DRY FOR MONDAY AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE FLUSHED EASTWARD.
WILL KEEP MONDAY VOID OF STORMS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD
EFFECT TERMINALS BETWEEN 21-23Z AND ALREADY HAVE TEMPO FOR TSRA IN
THE TAFS. UNSURE HOW MUCH STRATUS AND FOG WILL MAKE IT BACK IN
LATER TONIGHT AND FOR NOW JUST INDICATED SCATTERED LOWER DECK OF
CLOUDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SOME STRONG STORMS OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS BUT
STORMS ARE MOVING AT A DECENT CLIP AND EXPECT MOST STORMS TO
PRODUCE A QUARTER INCH IN 30 MINUTES WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OVER
THE FOOTHILLS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....D-L
AVIATION...ENTREKIN

000
FXUS65 KBOU 171539
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
939 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.SHORT TERM...OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WITH PW VALUES AROUND .6" OF AN INCH OVER THE FRONT RANGE. A WEAK
SURGE HAS MOVING MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHEAST AND DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN BACK INTO
THE LOWER 50S OVER THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE FROM ERIE NORTHWARD TO
THE WYOMING BORDER. MODELS NOT DOING VERY WELL WITH THIS
ESPECIALLY THE NAM. NAM SEEMS WAY TOO DRY AND WILL DISCOUNT. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL STILL BE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY WITH UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE BASED CAPES PROGGED FROM
1000-2000J/KG. WOULD STILL EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX
OUT OVER THE FRONT RANGE BUT WITH THIS WEAK SURGE MIGHT BE ABLE TO
HOLD IT IN A BIT LONGER THAN MODELS INDICATE. WILL MONITOR IN
CASED POPS NEED TO BE INCREASED OVER THE FRONT RANGE. WILL STILL
KEEP THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT ON THE PLAINS AND EAST OF THE DENVER
AREA/URBAN CORRIDOR.

.AVIATION...WITH THE WEAK SURGE...SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY
COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING FOR ISOLATED STORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. IF
WE CAN HOLD ONTO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT LONGER THAN STORMS MAY
BE STRONGER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013/

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES NORTH TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO
BECOME EASTERLY AND PULL MOISTURE INTO EASTERN COLORADO. AIRMASS
ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS WILL BE DRY AND WILL MIXED DOWN ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND CAUSE DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO TO
30S. EVEN THOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY WEST OF I-25...STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THE STORMS
WILL WEAK AND PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS.

OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AND DEW POINTS WILL
BE ABLE TO STAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THESE DEW POINTS ALONG
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WILL PRODUCE CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION TO THE GOOD INSTABILITY...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR TO PRODUCE A FEW
SUPER CELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM FORT MORGAN TO LIMON.

LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR TUESDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE MDLS MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS IN THE AFTN AND EVENING HIGHEST EAST OF THE
URBAN CORRIDOR. FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND CAPE (AT OR ABOVE
1500 J/KG0 FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING DRY AND SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH JUST A SLGT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
PAC NW SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE AFTN WILL DROP. THE
END RESULT WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AREAS OVER SOUTH PARK...THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER
DIVIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST. THE MDLS HINT AT SOME COOLING
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE FLOW ALOFT DECREASING. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS A HINT OF SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CLIPPING SRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF CO ON SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON SUNDAY...THE MDLS
ALSO INDICATE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE
NERN PLAINS AROUND 00Z MONDAY.

AVIATION...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER 12Z AND THEY SHIFT TO THE
EAST BY 18Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
AND BE POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE OVER FAR
NORTHEAST COLORADO AT THIS TIME. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THEM MOVING
INTO THE DENVER AREA AND WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

HYDROLOGY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
AFTERNOONS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
THE BURN SCARS. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE AND THE
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE MOVING AT 15 TO 25 MPH. THE THREAT
FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE BURN AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
ZERO.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN

000
FXUS65 KBOU 170956
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
356 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES NORTH TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO
BECOME EASTERLY AND PULL MOISTURE INTO EASTERN COLORADO. AIRMASS
ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS WILL BE DRY AND WILL MIXED DOWN ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND CAUSE DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO TO
30S. EVEN THOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY WEST OF I-25...STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THE STORMS
WILL WEAK AND PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS.

OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AND DEW POINTS WILL
BE ABLE TO STAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THESE DEW POINTS ALONG
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WILL PRODUCE CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION TO THE GOOD INSTABILITY...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR TO PRODUCE A FEW
SUPER CELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM FORT MORGAN TO LIMON.

.LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR TUESDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE MDLS MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS IN THE AFTN AND EVENING HIGHEST EAST OF THE
URBAN CORRIDOR. FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND CAPE (AT OR ABOVE
1500 J/KG0 FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING DRY AND SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH JUST A SLGT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
PAC NW SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE AFTN WILL DROP. THE
END RESULT WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AREAS OVER SOUTH PARK...THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER
DIVIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST. THE MDLS HINT AT SOME COOLING
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE FLOW ALOFT DECREASING. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS A HINT OF SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CLIPPING SRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF CO ON SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON SUNDAY...THE MDLS
ALSO INDICATE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE
NERN PLAINS AROUND 00Z MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER 12Z AND THEY SHIFT TO THE
EAST BY 18Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
AND BE POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE OVER FAR
NORTHEAST COLORADO AT THIS TIME. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THEM MOVING
INTO THE DENVER AREA AND WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
AFTERNOONS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
THE BURN SCARS. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE AND THE
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE MOVING AT 15 TO 25 MPH. THE THREAT
FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE BURN AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
ZERO.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...MEIER