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000
FXUS65 KBOU 211048
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
448 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A LARGE AREA OF LIFT IS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO ACROSS
UTAH AND NEVADA AHEAD OF THE CALIFORNIA TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
SHIFTING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN COLORADO. MEANWHILE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS WE COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PRESSURE
FALLS TO THE WEST. THIS HAS BROUGHT DRIER AIR INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO FOR THE TIME BEING.

THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...WITH LIFT
INCREASING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE
MUCH THIS MORNING...BUT WINDS SHOULD GET A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO ADVECT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BACK IN...AT LEAST NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. SOME VARIETY OF
DENVER CYCLONE CIRCULATION WILL EXIST...PROVIDING SOME CONVERGENCE
IN THIS AREA AS WELL. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS
WITH CAPE VALUES BELOW 500 J/KG. PLAINS WILL BE TOO COOL AND DRY
FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...THOUGH ELEVATED SHOWERS ON THE EDGE
OF THE AREA OF LIFT SHOULD OCCASIONALLY DRIFT OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE REGION AND EVENTUALLY THE DENVER AREA. KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS STILL LOOKS GOOD...I TOOK THE MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS TODAY.

THIS EVENING THE LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER BY THIS TIME THERE WILL
BE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS VEERING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID LEVELS AS THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST. THIS WILL BRING SOME DOWNSLOPE DRYING AT LOW LEVELS THAT
COULD OFFSET THIS PERIOD OF BETTER LIFT. THERE MAY BE A SWEET SPOT
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WHERE THE SHOWERS DO WELL...BUT
THE DRYING WILL LIKELY BE WINNING BY LATER IN THE NIGHT.

ALL THIS APPEARS TO BE PRETTY WELL COVERED...I MADE SOME MINOR
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS IN ADDITION TO LIMITING THE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INCREASING THE WINDS TONIGHT A BIT. THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL FLOW WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT DOES CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT
COULD FAVOR TRAINING/BACKBUILDING CELLS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OR
DOWNSTREAM FROM CONVERGENCE AREAS LIKE THE DENVER CYCLONE BOUNDARY
OR THE MOSQUITO RANGE. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN
INCH...LITTLE OR NO WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND CAPE...AND FAST CELL
MOTIONS...IT SEEMS LIKE THE FLOOD THREAT IS LOW...WITH TRAINING
OVER THE BURN AREAS THE MAIN POSSIBILITY. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS
THERE BUT MOST LIKELY IN THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN AREAS WHERE
CAPE/MOISTURE WILL BE BEST...I.E. SOUTH PARK AND THE SURROUNDING
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER
RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING...WITH WEAK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT
12Z TUESDAY MORNING. THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE
NORTHWESTERLY...THEN NORTHERLY...EVEN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY THE
REST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPWARD QG MOTION IS PROGGED
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...THEN WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION IS PROGGED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD FOLLOW
NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY OVERNIGHT...
DOWNSLOPING IS PROGGED AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS STILL PROGGED TO
BE PLENTIFUL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BUT NOW...TUESDAY`S MOISTURE
PROGS SHOW MORE THAN YESTERDAY`S 00Z MODEL RUNS INDICATED. IT
DOES DRY OUT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN
THE 0.50 TO 1.20 INCH RANGE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...THEN THEY
DECREASE INTO THE 0.30 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE LATER TUESDAY. THE DEW
POINT READINGS ARE PROGGED IN THE 40S F WEST TO 60 F EAST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE 30 F WEST TO 50 F
EAST RANGE BY LATE TUESDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT CAPE PROGGED
OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA LATE DAY MONDAY. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE CAPE PROGGED ON TUESDAY. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. THERE IS MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE REST OF THE CWA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TUESDAY IS MUCH DRIER WITH JUST A
TAD OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL GO WITH 30-60% POPS MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...THEN NEARLY
NO POPS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-20%S POPS ARE GOOD FOR LATE DAY
TUESDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-4 C WARMER THAN
TODAY`S HIGHS. TUESDAY`S HIGHS AT UP 1-3 C FROM MONDAY`S. FOR THE
LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IT IS DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN
MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THOUGH CEILINGS WILL REQUIRE
INSTRUMENT APPROACHES TO KDEN. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A DENVER CYCLONE CIRCULATION TODAY...EXPECT INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL AT KDEN/KAPA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT
KBJC...BUT THE BOUNDARY MAY MOVE OVER KDEN/KAPA AT TIMES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 211048
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
448 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A LARGE AREA OF LIFT IS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO ACROSS
UTAH AND NEVADA AHEAD OF THE CALIFORNIA TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
SHIFTING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN COLORADO. MEANWHILE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS WE COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PRESSURE
FALLS TO THE WEST. THIS HAS BROUGHT DRIER AIR INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO FOR THE TIME BEING.

THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...WITH LIFT
INCREASING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE
MUCH THIS MORNING...BUT WINDS SHOULD GET A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO ADVECT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BACK IN...AT LEAST NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. SOME VARIETY OF
DENVER CYCLONE CIRCULATION WILL EXIST...PROVIDING SOME CONVERGENCE
IN THIS AREA AS WELL. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS
WITH CAPE VALUES BELOW 500 J/KG. PLAINS WILL BE TOO COOL AND DRY
FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...THOUGH ELEVATED SHOWERS ON THE EDGE
OF THE AREA OF LIFT SHOULD OCCASIONALLY DRIFT OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE REGION AND EVENTUALLY THE DENVER AREA. KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS STILL LOOKS GOOD...I TOOK THE MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS TODAY.

THIS EVENING THE LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER BY THIS TIME THERE WILL
BE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS VEERING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID LEVELS AS THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST. THIS WILL BRING SOME DOWNSLOPE DRYING AT LOW LEVELS THAT
COULD OFFSET THIS PERIOD OF BETTER LIFT. THERE MAY BE A SWEET SPOT
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WHERE THE SHOWERS DO WELL...BUT
THE DRYING WILL LIKELY BE WINNING BY LATER IN THE NIGHT.

ALL THIS APPEARS TO BE PRETTY WELL COVERED...I MADE SOME MINOR
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS IN ADDITION TO LIMITING THE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INCREASING THE WINDS TONIGHT A BIT. THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL FLOW WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT DOES CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT
COULD FAVOR TRAINING/BACKBUILDING CELLS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OR
DOWNSTREAM FROM CONVERGENCE AREAS LIKE THE DENVER CYCLONE BOUNDARY
OR THE MOSQUITO RANGE. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN
INCH...LITTLE OR NO WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND CAPE...AND FAST CELL
MOTIONS...IT SEEMS LIKE THE FLOOD THREAT IS LOW...WITH TRAINING
OVER THE BURN AREAS THE MAIN POSSIBILITY. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS
THERE BUT MOST LIKELY IN THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN AREAS WHERE
CAPE/MOISTURE WILL BE BEST...I.E. SOUTH PARK AND THE SURROUNDING
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER
RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING...WITH WEAK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT
12Z TUESDAY MORNING. THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE
NORTHWESTERLY...THEN NORTHERLY...EVEN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY THE
REST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPWARD QG MOTION IS PROGGED
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...THEN WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION IS PROGGED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD FOLLOW
NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY OVERNIGHT...
DOWNSLOPING IS PROGGED AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS STILL PROGGED TO
BE PLENTIFUL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BUT NOW...TUESDAY`S MOISTURE
PROGS SHOW MORE THAN YESTERDAY`S 00Z MODEL RUNS INDICATED. IT
DOES DRY OUT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN
THE 0.50 TO 1.20 INCH RANGE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...THEN THEY
DECREASE INTO THE 0.30 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE LATER TUESDAY. THE DEW
POINT READINGS ARE PROGGED IN THE 40S F WEST TO 60 F EAST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE 30 F WEST TO 50 F
EAST RANGE BY LATE TUESDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT CAPE PROGGED
OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA LATE DAY MONDAY. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE CAPE PROGGED ON TUESDAY. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. THERE IS MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE REST OF THE CWA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TUESDAY IS MUCH DRIER WITH JUST A
TAD OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL GO WITH 30-60% POPS MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...THEN NEARLY
NO POPS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-20%S POPS ARE GOOD FOR LATE DAY
TUESDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-4 C WARMER THAN
TODAY`S HIGHS. TUESDAY`S HIGHS AT UP 1-3 C FROM MONDAY`S. FOR THE
LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IT IS DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN
MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THOUGH CEILINGS WILL REQUIRE
INSTRUMENT APPROACHES TO KDEN. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A DENVER CYCLONE CIRCULATION TODAY...EXPECT INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL AT KDEN/KAPA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT
KBJC...BUT THE BOUNDARY MAY MOVE OVER KDEN/KAPA AT TIMES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD





000
FXUS65 KBOU 210213
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
813 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

EARLIER CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS DECREASING IN
INTENSITY BUT IT IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ONTO THE NEARBY ADJACENT
PLAINS. THE MAIN AREA OF EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
LIKELY HOLD ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR...SO HAVE
ALREADY ADJUSTED FORECAST FOR HIGHER POPS PARK COUNTY/SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS/DOUGLAS COUNTY AREA...AND LOWER POPS NORTHWARD TOWARD
FORT COLLINS. AT BEST WOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS THERE. THE
EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS COULD VERY WELL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DURING
THE POST MIDNIGHT HOURS BUT THEN REDEVELOP AGAIN TOWARD EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY AS NEXT BATCH OF LIFT/MOIST PLUME REACHES THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MDLS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP THE AIRMASS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR
THIS EVENING...THE LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO KEEP ANY DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF DENVER. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS TOO DRY AND STABLE ELSEWHERE TO SUPPORT ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO
TONIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL ESELY SFC WINDS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER SWRN NV SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO NERN NV BY
00X MONDAY. THE QG ASCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEAK BUT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB BACK OVER AN INCH. WITH THE
COOLER AMS IN PLACE...LIMITED HEATING COUPLED WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS VS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. WL CONTINUE WITH SCT-LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NOT A LOT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DURING THE PERIOD.
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF LOS ANGELES IS PREDICTED TO LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH PASSING EAST OF THE
STATE TUESDAY MORNING. THE RESULT OF THIS IS A QUANTITATIVELY
MODEST BUT DEEP AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUASIGEOSTROPHIC ASCENT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS ASCENT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. CONSEQUENTLY EVERYONE SHOULD HAVE A SHOT AT SOME
PRECIPITATION AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 1.00 INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH
MODERATE CAPE VALUES AROUND AT TIMES THE THREAT OF SOME HEAVY
SHOWERS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. AT PRESENT HOWEVER IT IS DIFFICULT TO
SINGLE OUT ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR ANY ENHANCED FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 812 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EVENING STORMS SHOULD HOLD JUST SOUTH OF KDEN
AND KBJC BUT VCTS STILL POSSIBLE TIL AROUND 06Z. KAPA ON THE
OTHER HAND WILL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TIL AROUND
06Z...THEN LOOK FOR A DECREASE OF SHOWERS. NEXT BATCH COULD BE IN
TOWARD 12Z-15Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS LOOK A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST SO WILL BE ADJUSTING THOSE DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH CEILINGS
POSSIBLY LOWERING TO AROUND 5000 FT AGL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 210213
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
813 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

EARLIER CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS DECREASING IN
INTENSITY BUT IT IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ONTO THE NEARBY ADJACENT
PLAINS. THE MAIN AREA OF EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
LIKELY HOLD ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR...SO HAVE
ALREADY ADJUSTED FORECAST FOR HIGHER POPS PARK COUNTY/SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS/DOUGLAS COUNTY AREA...AND LOWER POPS NORTHWARD TOWARD
FORT COLLINS. AT BEST WOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS THERE. THE
EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS COULD VERY WELL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DURING
THE POST MIDNIGHT HOURS BUT THEN REDEVELOP AGAIN TOWARD EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY AS NEXT BATCH OF LIFT/MOIST PLUME REACHES THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MDLS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP THE AIRMASS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR
THIS EVENING...THE LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO KEEP ANY DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF DENVER. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS TOO DRY AND STABLE ELSEWHERE TO SUPPORT ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO
TONIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL ESELY SFC WINDS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER SWRN NV SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO NERN NV BY
00X MONDAY. THE QG ASCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEAK BUT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB BACK OVER AN INCH. WITH THE
COOLER AMS IN PLACE...LIMITED HEATING COUPLED WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS VS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. WL CONTINUE WITH SCT-LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NOT A LOT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DURING THE PERIOD.
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF LOS ANGELES IS PREDICTED TO LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH PASSING EAST OF THE
STATE TUESDAY MORNING. THE RESULT OF THIS IS A QUANTITATIVELY
MODEST BUT DEEP AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUASIGEOSTROPHIC ASCENT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS ASCENT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. CONSEQUENTLY EVERYONE SHOULD HAVE A SHOT AT SOME
PRECIPITATION AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 1.00 INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH
MODERATE CAPE VALUES AROUND AT TIMES THE THREAT OF SOME HEAVY
SHOWERS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. AT PRESENT HOWEVER IT IS DIFFICULT TO
SINGLE OUT ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR ANY ENHANCED FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 812 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EVENING STORMS SHOULD HOLD JUST SOUTH OF KDEN
AND KBJC BUT VCTS STILL POSSIBLE TIL AROUND 06Z. KAPA ON THE
OTHER HAND WILL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TIL AROUND
06Z...THEN LOOK FOR A DECREASE OF SHOWERS. NEXT BATCH COULD BE IN
TOWARD 12Z-15Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS LOOK A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST SO WILL BE ADJUSTING THOSE DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH CEILINGS
POSSIBLY LOWERING TO AROUND 5000 FT AGL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS65 KBOU 202034
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
234 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MDLS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP THE AIRMASS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR
THIS EVENING...THE LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO KEEP ANY DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF DENVER. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS TOO DRY AND STABLE ELSEWHERE TO SUPPORT ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO
TONIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL ESELY SFC WINDS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER SWRN NV SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO NERN NV BY
00X MONDAY. THE QG ASCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEAK BUT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB BACK OVER AN INCH. WITH THE
COOLER AMS IN PLACE...LIMITED HEATING COUPLED WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS VS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. WL CONTINUE WITH SCT-LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NOT A LOT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DURING THE PERIOD.
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF LOS ANGELES IS PREDICTED TO LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH PASSING EAST OF THE
STATE TUESDAY MORNING. THE RESULT OF THIS IS A QUANTITATIVELY
MODEST BUT DEEP AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUASIGEOSTROPHIC ASCENT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS ASCENT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. CONSEQUENTLY EVERYONE SHOULD HAVE A SHOT AT SOME
PRECIPITATION AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 1.00 INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH
MODERATE CAPE VALUES AROUND AT TIMES THE THREAT OF SOME HEAVY
SHOWERS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. AT PRESENT HOWEVER IT IS DIFFICULT TO
SINGLE OUT ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR ANY ENHANCED FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 06Z...THE AMS DOES MOISTEN UP OVERNIGHT
WITH LCL LOWERING ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ILS APPROACHES WITH OCNL BKN-
OVC CIGS OF 050-060 KFT AGL AFTER 06Z. ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS ON SUNDAY. COOLER AMS WL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS ON
THE LOW SIDE...WITH A BETTER CHC FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 202034
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
234 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MDLS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP THE AIRMASS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR
THIS EVENING...THE LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO KEEP ANY DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF DENVER. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS TOO DRY AND STABLE ELSEWHERE TO SUPPORT ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO
TONIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL ESELY SFC WINDS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER SWRN NV SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO NERN NV BY
00X MONDAY. THE QG ASCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEAK BUT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB BACK OVER AN INCH. WITH THE
COOLER AMS IN PLACE...LIMITED HEATING COUPLED WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS VS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. WL CONTINUE WITH SCT-LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NOT A LOT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DURING THE PERIOD.
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF LOS ANGELES IS PREDICTED TO LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH PASSING EAST OF THE
STATE TUESDAY MORNING. THE RESULT OF THIS IS A QUANTITATIVELY
MODEST BUT DEEP AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUASIGEOSTROPHIC ASCENT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS ASCENT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. CONSEQUENTLY EVERYONE SHOULD HAVE A SHOT AT SOME
PRECIPITATION AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 1.00 INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH
MODERATE CAPE VALUES AROUND AT TIMES THE THREAT OF SOME HEAVY
SHOWERS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. AT PRESENT HOWEVER IT IS DIFFICULT TO
SINGLE OUT ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR ANY ENHANCED FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 06Z...THE AMS DOES MOISTEN UP OVERNIGHT
WITH LCL LOWERING ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ILS APPROACHES WITH OCNL BKN-
OVC CIGS OF 050-060 KFT AGL AFTER 06Z. ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS ON SUNDAY. COOLER AMS WL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS ON
THE LOW SIDE...WITH A BETTER CHC FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...COOPER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 201634
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1034 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. OVERALL...GENERALLY DRY AND
STABLE TODAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF DENVER...AFTER 20Z. THIS ALREADY HANDLED SO WL LEAVE
THINGS AS IS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

DRIER AIR IS MOVING OVER NORTHERN COLORADO BEHIND LAST NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT...ACTUALLY SPREAD OVER
TWO WIND SHIFTS...WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING
BRINGING SOME COOLING AT THE SURFACE. WITH WARM DRY AIR
ALOFT...AROUND -7C AT 500 MB...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH TODAY. FURTHERMORE THERE IS SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE TROUGH...THOUGH THIS WILL BE FADING THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING AND THEN SOME WEAK CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS HAVE A THEME OF DEVELOPING A BATCH OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SUMMIT COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THEN MOVING
THEM EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING TOWARD THE PALMER
DIVIDE REGION. THIS AREA WILL HAVE BETTER DEEP MOISTURE AND A
TREND TOWARD SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS WOULD
ALSO PRODUCE CONVECTION THERE...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST A BIT MORE
TOWARD THIS IDEA WITH LESS CLOUDS AND POPS FURTHER NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT THERE WILL BE WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT LOW-
MID LEVELS AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE E-SE AND THE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD. USEFUL CIRA SIMULATED CLOUD IMAGERY SHOWS A
DECK OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE
NIGHT...COULD HAVE SOME WEAK SHOWERS BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE MUCH. MEANWHILE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH COULD ALSO PRODUCE
SOME WEAK SHOWERS. I LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TONIGHT
EXPECTING LESS CLOUD COVER IN THE EVENING AND A BIT STRONGER COLD
ADVECTION IN THE MODELS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS RIGHT OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY. IT
MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER AT 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS BASICALLY ZONAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...
NORTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL
VELOCITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SUNDAY...WITH NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE IS QUITE
PREVALENT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ON MANY MODELS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED IN THE 0.60 TO 1.30 INCH
RANGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN THEY DECREASE. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 45 TO 60 F RANGE ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS LIMITED CAPE PROGGED FOR
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA LATE DAY SUNDAY. THERE IS BETTER
CAPE FOR LATE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE BEST VALUES OVER THE PLAINS.
THE QPF FIELDS SHOW MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS MEASURABLE OVER ALL THE
CWA. THERE ARE PRETTY DECENT AMOUNTS PROGGED FOR MOST OF THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. WILL GO WITH PRETTY GOOD POPS SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...30-60%S. FOR TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 2-4 C COOLER THAN TODAY...COOLER ON THE NAM. MONDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 0-2 C WARMER THAN SUNDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE MOVE IN AND IT STICKS
AROUND ALL FOUR DAYS. MOISTURE IS SPARSE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY WARM UP AND BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCT STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY
WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF DENVER AFTER 20Z...A WEAK STORM COULD SLIP
INTO THE DENVER AREA 23Z-02Z. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BKN CIGS
(050-060 KFT AGL) DEVELOP THAT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ILS APPROACHES
TO KDEN SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO SCT LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...COOPER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 201634
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1034 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. OVERALL...GENERALLY DRY AND
STABLE TODAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF DENVER...AFTER 20Z. THIS ALREADY HANDLED SO WL LEAVE
THINGS AS IS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

DRIER AIR IS MOVING OVER NORTHERN COLORADO BEHIND LAST NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT...ACTUALLY SPREAD OVER
TWO WIND SHIFTS...WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING
BRINGING SOME COOLING AT THE SURFACE. WITH WARM DRY AIR
ALOFT...AROUND -7C AT 500 MB...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH TODAY. FURTHERMORE THERE IS SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE TROUGH...THOUGH THIS WILL BE FADING THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING AND THEN SOME WEAK CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS HAVE A THEME OF DEVELOPING A BATCH OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SUMMIT COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THEN MOVING
THEM EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING TOWARD THE PALMER
DIVIDE REGION. THIS AREA WILL HAVE BETTER DEEP MOISTURE AND A
TREND TOWARD SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS WOULD
ALSO PRODUCE CONVECTION THERE...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST A BIT MORE
TOWARD THIS IDEA WITH LESS CLOUDS AND POPS FURTHER NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT THERE WILL BE WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT LOW-
MID LEVELS AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE E-SE AND THE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD. USEFUL CIRA SIMULATED CLOUD IMAGERY SHOWS A
DECK OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE
NIGHT...COULD HAVE SOME WEAK SHOWERS BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE MUCH. MEANWHILE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH COULD ALSO PRODUCE
SOME WEAK SHOWERS. I LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TONIGHT
EXPECTING LESS CLOUD COVER IN THE EVENING AND A BIT STRONGER COLD
ADVECTION IN THE MODELS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS RIGHT OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY. IT
MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER AT 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS BASICALLY ZONAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...
NORTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL
VELOCITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SUNDAY...WITH NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE IS QUITE
PREVALENT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ON MANY MODELS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED IN THE 0.60 TO 1.30 INCH
RANGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN THEY DECREASE. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 45 TO 60 F RANGE ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS LIMITED CAPE PROGGED FOR
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA LATE DAY SUNDAY. THERE IS BETTER
CAPE FOR LATE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE BEST VALUES OVER THE PLAINS.
THE QPF FIELDS SHOW MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS MEASURABLE OVER ALL THE
CWA. THERE ARE PRETTY DECENT AMOUNTS PROGGED FOR MOST OF THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. WILL GO WITH PRETTY GOOD POPS SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...30-60%S. FOR TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 2-4 C COOLER THAN TODAY...COOLER ON THE NAM. MONDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 0-2 C WARMER THAN SUNDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE MOVE IN AND IT STICKS
AROUND ALL FOUR DAYS. MOISTURE IS SPARSE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY WARM UP AND BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCT STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY
WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF DENVER AFTER 20Z...A WEAK STORM COULD SLIP
INTO THE DENVER AREA 23Z-02Z. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BKN CIGS
(050-060 KFT AGL) DEVELOP THAT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ILS APPROACHES
TO KDEN SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO SCT LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 201035
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
435 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

DRIER AIR IS MOVING OVER NORTHERN COLORADO BEHIND LAST NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT...ACTUALLY SPREAD OVER
TWO WIND SHIFTS...WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING
BRINGING SOME COOLING AT THE SURFACE. WITH WARM DRY AIR
ALOFT...AROUND -7C AT 500 MB...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH TODAY. FURTHERMORE THERE IS SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE TROUGH...THOUGH THIS WILL BE FADING THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING AND THEN SOME WEAK CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS HAVE A THEME OF DEVELOPING A BATCH OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SUMMIT COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THEN MOVING
THEM EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING TOWARD THE PALMER
DIVIDE REGION. THIS AREA WILL HAVE BETTER DEEP MOISTURE AND A
TREND TOWARD SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS WOULD
ALSO PRODUCE CONVECTION THERE...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST A BIT MORE
TOWARD THIS IDEA WITH LESS CLOUDS AND POPS FURTHER NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT THERE WILL BE WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT LOW-
MID LEVELS AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE E-SE AND THE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD. USEFUL CIRA SIMULATED CLOUD IMAGERY SHOWS A
DECK OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE
NIGHT...COULD HAVE SOME WEAK SHOWERS BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE MUCH. MEANWHILE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH COULD ALSO PRODUCE
SOME WEAK SHOWERS. I LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TONIGHT
EXPECTING LESS CLOUD COVER IN THE EVENING AND A BIT STRONGER COLD
ADVECTION IN THE MODELS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS RIGHT OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY. IT
MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER AT 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS BASICALLY ZONAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...
NORTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL
VELOCITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SUNDAY...WITH NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE IS QUITE
PREVALENT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ON MANY MODELS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED IN THE 0.60 TO 1.30 INCH
RANGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN THEY DECREASE. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 45 TO 60 F RANGE ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS LIMITED CAPE PROGGED FOR
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA LATE DAY SUNDAY. THERE IS BETTER
CAPE FOR LATE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE BEST VALUES OVER THE PLAINS.
THE QPF FIELDS SHOW MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS MEASURABLE OVER ALL THE
CWA. THERE ARE PRETTY DECENT AMOUNTS PROGGED FOR MOST OF THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. WILL GO WITH PRETTY GOOD POPS SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...30-60%S. FOR TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 2-4 C COOLER THAN TODAY...COOLER ON THE NAM. MONDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 0-2 C WARMER THAN SUNDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE MOVE IN AND IT STICKS
AROUND ALL FOUR DAYS. MOISTURE IS SPARSE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY WARM UP AND BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD
AFFECT KDEN TRAFFIC...BUT ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST IN THE DENVER
AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP THAT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE INSTRUMENT APPROACHES TO KDEN FOR
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 201035
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
435 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

DRIER AIR IS MOVING OVER NORTHERN COLORADO BEHIND LAST NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT...ACTUALLY SPREAD OVER
TWO WIND SHIFTS...WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING
BRINGING SOME COOLING AT THE SURFACE. WITH WARM DRY AIR
ALOFT...AROUND -7C AT 500 MB...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH TODAY. FURTHERMORE THERE IS SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE TROUGH...THOUGH THIS WILL BE FADING THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING AND THEN SOME WEAK CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS HAVE A THEME OF DEVELOPING A BATCH OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SUMMIT COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THEN MOVING
THEM EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING TOWARD THE PALMER
DIVIDE REGION. THIS AREA WILL HAVE BETTER DEEP MOISTURE AND A
TREND TOWARD SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS WOULD
ALSO PRODUCE CONVECTION THERE...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST A BIT MORE
TOWARD THIS IDEA WITH LESS CLOUDS AND POPS FURTHER NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT THERE WILL BE WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT LOW-
MID LEVELS AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE E-SE AND THE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD. USEFUL CIRA SIMULATED CLOUD IMAGERY SHOWS A
DECK OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE
NIGHT...COULD HAVE SOME WEAK SHOWERS BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE MUCH. MEANWHILE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH COULD ALSO PRODUCE
SOME WEAK SHOWERS. I LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TONIGHT
EXPECTING LESS CLOUD COVER IN THE EVENING AND A BIT STRONGER COLD
ADVECTION IN THE MODELS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS RIGHT OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY. IT
MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER AT 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS BASICALLY ZONAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...
NORTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL
VELOCITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SUNDAY...WITH NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE IS QUITE
PREVALENT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ON MANY MODELS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED IN THE 0.60 TO 1.30 INCH
RANGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN THEY DECREASE. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 45 TO 60 F RANGE ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS LIMITED CAPE PROGGED FOR
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA LATE DAY SUNDAY. THERE IS BETTER
CAPE FOR LATE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE BEST VALUES OVER THE PLAINS.
THE QPF FIELDS SHOW MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS MEASURABLE OVER ALL THE
CWA. THERE ARE PRETTY DECENT AMOUNTS PROGGED FOR MOST OF THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. WILL GO WITH PRETTY GOOD POPS SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...30-60%S. FOR TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 2-4 C COOLER THAN TODAY...COOLER ON THE NAM. MONDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 0-2 C WARMER THAN SUNDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE MOVE IN AND IT STICKS
AROUND ALL FOUR DAYS. MOISTURE IS SPARSE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY WARM UP AND BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD
AFFECT KDEN TRAFFIC...BUT ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST IN THE DENVER
AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP THAT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE INSTRUMENT APPROACHES TO KDEN FOR
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD





000
FXUS65 KBOU 200048
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
648 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. LOOKS
LIKE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WAS PROVIDING MORE
LIFT AND THUS BETTER STORM COVERAGE. MEANWHILE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM NORTHEAST PLAINS WAS WORKING SOUTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO POP RENEWED CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE AND I-25
CORRIDOR IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE MADE MINOR POP
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS AS WELL. MOST SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AROUND 10 OR 11 PM...BUT CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER HIGH COUNTRY...AND MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION SPREADING EAST ALONG CHEYENNE RIDGE.
CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN MOST AREAS BY SUNSET...LINGERING A BIT
LONGER OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
COLORADO EARLY SATURDAY...SO FORECAST OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY LOOKS REASONABLE. AIRMASS WILL BE A BIT
WETTER SATURDAY...WITH ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH...SO HAVE RAISED
POPS OVER PALMER DIVIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THROUGH NEVADA SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH OUT
THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AN INCH TO AN
INCH AND A QUARTER OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
IN PLACE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING MONDAY. COLORADO WILL BE
UNDER A WESTERLY TROUGHINESS FLOW ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH MOISTURE
SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST...LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE BEING OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY AND
PRODUCE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER COLORADO BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
AIRPORTS 02Z-03Z...KEEPING A THREAT OF ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE AREA TIL AROUND 04Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DESPITE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. HOWEVER...AIRMASS IS ONLY MARGINALLY MOIST SO
NO STRATUS OR LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS SATURDAY WOULD LIKELY HOLD OFF TIL 03Z-06Z AND EVEN THATS
ONLY ABOUT 30 PERCENT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 200048
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
648 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. LOOKS
LIKE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WAS PROVIDING MORE
LIFT AND THUS BETTER STORM COVERAGE. MEANWHILE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM NORTHEAST PLAINS WAS WORKING SOUTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO POP RENEWED CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE AND I-25
CORRIDOR IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE MADE MINOR POP
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS AS WELL. MOST SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AROUND 10 OR 11 PM...BUT CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER HIGH COUNTRY...AND MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION SPREADING EAST ALONG CHEYENNE RIDGE.
CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN MOST AREAS BY SUNSET...LINGERING A BIT
LONGER OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
COLORADO EARLY SATURDAY...SO FORECAST OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY LOOKS REASONABLE. AIRMASS WILL BE A BIT
WETTER SATURDAY...WITH ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH...SO HAVE RAISED
POPS OVER PALMER DIVIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THROUGH NEVADA SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH OUT
THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AN INCH TO AN
INCH AND A QUARTER OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
IN PLACE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING MONDAY. COLORADO WILL BE
UNDER A WESTERLY TROUGHINESS FLOW ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH MOISTURE
SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST...LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE BEING OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY AND
PRODUCE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER COLORADO BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
AIRPORTS 02Z-03Z...KEEPING A THREAT OF ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE AREA TIL AROUND 04Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DESPITE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. HOWEVER...AIRMASS IS ONLY MARGINALLY MOIST SO
NO STRATUS OR LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS SATURDAY WOULD LIKELY HOLD OFF TIL 03Z-06Z AND EVEN THATS
ONLY ABOUT 30 PERCENT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS65 KBOU 192035
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
235 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER HIGH COUNTRY...AND MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION SPREADING EAST ALONG CHEYENNE RIDGE.
CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN MOST AREAS BY SUNSET...LINGERING A BIT
LONGER OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
COLORADO EARLY SATURDAY...SO FORECAST OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY LOOKS REASONABLE. AIRMASS WILL BE A BIT
WETTER SATURDAY...WITH ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH...SO HAVE RAISED
POPS OVER PALMER DIVIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THROUGH NEVADA SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH OUT
THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AN INCH TO AN
INCH AND A QUARTER OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
IN PLACE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING MONDAY. COLORADO WILL BE
UNDER A WESTERLY TROUGHINESS FLOW ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH MOISTURE
SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST...LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE BEING OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY AND
PRODUCE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER COLORADO BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF
DENVER. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...RTG




000
FXUS65 KBOU 191559
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
959 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH METRO AREA THIS MORNING...THIS WILL COOL
OFF TEMPS A BIT...THIS COVERED IN CURRENT FORECAST. THUNDERSTORMS
STILL EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DRIFTING EAST ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER AREAS OF THE PLAINS MAY
SEE A STORM OR TWO...BUT MAINLY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH A CONTINUED DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. DURING THE DAY
TODAY...THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS A WEAK TROF SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST. CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING FRONT MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SHOULD BE THROUGH CYS AROUND 11Z. NOT MUCH
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ON THE TAIL END OF THIS TROF. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CYS RIDGE.
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DRIFT OFF THE HILLS AND ONTO THE
PLAINS. OVERALL COVERAGE OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ISOLATED
AND MAINLY NOT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AN UPPER HIGH AND RIDGE ARE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN WESTERLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA. THE
LOW LEVELS WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE UPSLOPE ON SATURDAY...THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY WITH A DENVER CYCLONE A GOOD BET. MOISTURE
CERTAINLY INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIODS...WITH QUITE A BIT PROGGED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE PROGGED IN THE 0.40 WEST TO 1.00 INCH EAST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THEY INCREASE INTO THE 0.60 TO 1.30 INCH
RANGE FORM WEST TO EAST...WITH OVER AN INCH OVER MUCH OF THE
PLAINS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S F
WEST TO WIDESPREAD 50S F OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...60S F READINGS ARE PROGED TO
COVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS SOME CAPE OVER THE CWA LATE DAY
SATURDAY...MOSTLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER RIDGE. THERE IS A
BIT MORE PROGGED FOR LATE DAY SUNDAY AND IT IS OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE CWA
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SOME OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND PALMER
RIDGE BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERE IS QUITE A
BIT PROGED FOR THE PLAINS. THE ENTIRE CWA HAS MEASURABLE RAINFALL
IN PLACE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS WILL GO WITH 20-40%S
FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. FOR OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...20-30% POPS WILL BE GOOD FOR
ALL THE CWA. WILL UP THAT INTO THE 30-50% RANGE THE REST OF SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-8 C
COOLER THAN TODAY`S EXPECTED HIGHS. SUNDAY`S LOOK SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED OVER COLORADO MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
...THEN UPPER RIDGING MOVES BACK IN THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE MOISTURE FROM SUNDAY IS PROGGED
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE DRIES OUT AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMB A BIT FOR THE REST OF TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE CHALLENGE THIS MORNING HAS BEEN FORECASTING WIND DIRECTIONS
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH METRO AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS MID
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NORTH NORTHEASTERLY LATE
MORNING...NORTHEASTERLY EARLY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WE WILL NOT
LIKELY GO TO NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS...BUT HAVE WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST OR WEST. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY WEST AND NORTHWEST OF DENVER...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
ONE OR TWO STORMS AFTER 21Z THAT MAY IMPACT AREA AIRPORTS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 191559
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
959 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH METRO AREA THIS MORNING...THIS WILL COOL
OFF TEMPS A BIT...THIS COVERED IN CURRENT FORECAST. THUNDERSTORMS
STILL EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DRIFTING EAST ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER AREAS OF THE PLAINS MAY
SEE A STORM OR TWO...BUT MAINLY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH A CONTINUED DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. DURING THE DAY
TODAY...THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS A WEAK TROF SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST. CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING FRONT MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SHOULD BE THROUGH CYS AROUND 11Z. NOT MUCH
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ON THE TAIL END OF THIS TROF. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CYS RIDGE.
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DRIFT OFF THE HILLS AND ONTO THE
PLAINS. OVERALL COVERAGE OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ISOLATED
AND MAINLY NOT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AN UPPER HIGH AND RIDGE ARE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN WESTERLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA. THE
LOW LEVELS WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE UPSLOPE ON SATURDAY...THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY WITH A DENVER CYCLONE A GOOD BET. MOISTURE
CERTAINLY INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIODS...WITH QUITE A BIT PROGGED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE PROGGED IN THE 0.40 WEST TO 1.00 INCH EAST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THEY INCREASE INTO THE 0.60 TO 1.30 INCH
RANGE FORM WEST TO EAST...WITH OVER AN INCH OVER MUCH OF THE
PLAINS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S F
WEST TO WIDESPREAD 50S F OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...60S F READINGS ARE PROGED TO
COVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS SOME CAPE OVER THE CWA LATE DAY
SATURDAY...MOSTLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER RIDGE. THERE IS A
BIT MORE PROGGED FOR LATE DAY SUNDAY AND IT IS OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE CWA
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SOME OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND PALMER
RIDGE BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERE IS QUITE A
BIT PROGED FOR THE PLAINS. THE ENTIRE CWA HAS MEASURABLE RAINFALL
IN PLACE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS WILL GO WITH 20-40%S
FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. FOR OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...20-30% POPS WILL BE GOOD FOR
ALL THE CWA. WILL UP THAT INTO THE 30-50% RANGE THE REST OF SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-8 C
COOLER THAN TODAY`S EXPECTED HIGHS. SUNDAY`S LOOK SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED OVER COLORADO MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
...THEN UPPER RIDGING MOVES BACK IN THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE MOISTURE FROM SUNDAY IS PROGGED
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE DRIES OUT AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMB A BIT FOR THE REST OF TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE CHALLENGE THIS MORNING HAS BEEN FORECASTING WIND DIRECTIONS
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH METRO AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS MID
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NORTH NORTHEASTERLY LATE
MORNING...NORTHEASTERLY EARLY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WE WILL NOT
LIKELY GO TO NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS...BUT HAVE WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST OR WEST. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY WEST AND NORTHWEST OF DENVER...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
ONE OR TWO STORMS AFTER 21Z THAT MAY IMPACT AREA AIRPORTS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 190936
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
336 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH A CONTINUED DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. DURING THE DAY
TODAY...THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS A WEAK TROF SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST. CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING FRONT MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SHOULD BE THROUGH CYS AROUND 11Z. NOT MUCH
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ON THE TAIL END OF THIS TROF. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CYS RIDGE.
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DRIFT OFF THE HILLS AND ONTO THE
PLAINS. OVERALL COVERAGE OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ISOLATED
AND MAINLY NOT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AN UPPER HIGH AND RIDGE ARE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN WESTERLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA. THE
LOW LEVELS WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE UPSLOPE ON SATURDAY...THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY WITH A DENVER CYCLONE A GOOD BET. MOISTURE
CERTAINLY INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIODS...WITH QUITE A BIT PROGGED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE PROGGED IN THE 0.40 WEST TO 1.00 INCH EAST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THEY INCREASE INTO THE 0.60 TO 1.30 INCH
RANGE FORM WEST TO EAST...WITH OVER AN INCH OVER MUCH OF THE
PLAINS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S F
WEST TO WIDESPREAD 50S F OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...60S F READINGS ARE PROGED TO
COVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS SOME CAPE OVER THE CWA LATE DAY
SATURDAY...MOSTLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER RIDGE. THERE IS A
BIT MORE PROGGED FOR LATE DAY SUNDAY AND IT IS OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE CWA
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SOME OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND PALMER
RIDGE BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERE IS QUITE A
BIT PROGED FOR THE PLAINS. THE ENTIRE CWA HAS MEASURABLE RAINFALL
IN PLACE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS WILL GO WITH 20-40%S
FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. FOR OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...20-30% POPS WILL BE GOOD FOR
ALL THE CWA. WILL UP THAT INTO THE 30-50% RANGE THE REST OF SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-8 C
COOLER THAN TODAY`S EXPECTED HIGHS. SUNDAY`S LOOK SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED OVER COLORADO MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
...THEN UPPER RIDGING MOVES BACK IN THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE MOISTURE FROM SUNDAY IS PROGGED
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE DRIES OUT AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMB A BIT FOR THE REST OF TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HEALTHY DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY THIS AM BUT WILL SHIFT NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 14-16Z. EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE
CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS. COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM THAT DRIFTS OVER
LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT COVERAGE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
CURRENT TAFS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 190936
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
336 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH A CONTINUED DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. DURING THE DAY
TODAY...THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS A WEAK TROF SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST. CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING FRONT MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SHOULD BE THROUGH CYS AROUND 11Z. NOT MUCH
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ON THE TAIL END OF THIS TROF. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CYS RIDGE.
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DRIFT OFF THE HILLS AND ONTO THE
PLAINS. OVERALL COVERAGE OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ISOLATED
AND MAINLY NOT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AN UPPER HIGH AND RIDGE ARE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN WESTERLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA. THE
LOW LEVELS WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE UPSLOPE ON SATURDAY...THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY WITH A DENVER CYCLONE A GOOD BET. MOISTURE
CERTAINLY INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIODS...WITH QUITE A BIT PROGGED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE PROGGED IN THE 0.40 WEST TO 1.00 INCH EAST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THEY INCREASE INTO THE 0.60 TO 1.30 INCH
RANGE FORM WEST TO EAST...WITH OVER AN INCH OVER MUCH OF THE
PLAINS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S F
WEST TO WIDESPREAD 50S F OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...60S F READINGS ARE PROGED TO
COVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS SOME CAPE OVER THE CWA LATE DAY
SATURDAY...MOSTLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER RIDGE. THERE IS A
BIT MORE PROGGED FOR LATE DAY SUNDAY AND IT IS OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE CWA
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SOME OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND PALMER
RIDGE BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERE IS QUITE A
BIT PROGED FOR THE PLAINS. THE ENTIRE CWA HAS MEASURABLE RAINFALL
IN PLACE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS WILL GO WITH 20-40%S
FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. FOR OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...20-30% POPS WILL BE GOOD FOR
ALL THE CWA. WILL UP THAT INTO THE 30-50% RANGE THE REST OF SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-8 C
COOLER THAN TODAY`S EXPECTED HIGHS. SUNDAY`S LOOK SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED OVER COLORADO MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
...THEN UPPER RIDGING MOVES BACK IN THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE MOISTURE FROM SUNDAY IS PROGGED
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE DRIES OUT AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMB A BIT FOR THE REST OF TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HEALTHY DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY THIS AM BUT WILL SHIFT NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 14-16Z. EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE
CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS. COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM THAT DRIFTS OVER
LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT COVERAGE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
CURRENT TAFS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 190305
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
905 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY THIS TIME AROUND. CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS COMING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. BY SUNRISE...LOWER WINDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF TO THE LOWS THAT WE HAVE IN
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER COLORADO. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST
BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DENVER AREA BY 18Z WITH
WEAK NELY WINDS IN THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE THEIR RETURN
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE URBAN
CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM NEW MEXICO ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO AND NORTHWESTWARD TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME MOIST AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FRIDAY EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...UPPER 70S FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO. STILL SOME
QUESTION IF WE WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS TOO DRY...BUT IF LOW CLOUDS FORM WOULD EXPECT THEM TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER. MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION SATURDAY. THE PLAINS MAY BE CAPPED BY THE COOLER AIRMASS
SO CHANCES WILL BE LOW. THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN...INCLUDING THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER EASTERN COLORADO BY SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NEVADA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AN INCH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MORE THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
CAPES WILL BE UP TO 1000 J/KG. SO EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW POSSIBLY PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEVADA
INTO WYOMING MONDAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. A SHORT
WAVE OR TWO MAY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS COLORADO. AIRMASS
WILL DRY SLIGHTLY EACH DAY...BUT REMAIN MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. EXPECT A ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER COLORADO
AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
THURSDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THIS PATTERN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

WILL EXTEND THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS SINCE
RADAR DATA IS SHOWING A BOUNDARY COMING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE.
KMNH IS SHOWING GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS...INDICATIVE OF THE WINDS WE
MIGHT SEE AT KAPA AND KDEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT THE
WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DRAINAGE SPEEDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 190305
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
905 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY THIS TIME AROUND. CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS COMING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. BY SUNRISE...LOWER WINDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF TO THE LOWS THAT WE HAVE IN
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER COLORADO. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST
BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DENVER AREA BY 18Z WITH
WEAK NELY WINDS IN THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE THEIR RETURN
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE URBAN
CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM NEW MEXICO ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO AND NORTHWESTWARD TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME MOIST AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FRIDAY EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...UPPER 70S FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO. STILL SOME
QUESTION IF WE WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS TOO DRY...BUT IF LOW CLOUDS FORM WOULD EXPECT THEM TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER. MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION SATURDAY. THE PLAINS MAY BE CAPPED BY THE COOLER AIRMASS
SO CHANCES WILL BE LOW. THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN...INCLUDING THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER EASTERN COLORADO BY SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NEVADA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AN INCH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MORE THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
CAPES WILL BE UP TO 1000 J/KG. SO EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW POSSIBLY PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEVADA
INTO WYOMING MONDAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. A SHORT
WAVE OR TWO MAY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS COLORADO. AIRMASS
WILL DRY SLIGHTLY EACH DAY...BUT REMAIN MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. EXPECT A ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER COLORADO
AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
THURSDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THIS PATTERN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

WILL EXTEND THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS SINCE
RADAR DATA IS SHOWING A BOUNDARY COMING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE.
KMNH IS SHOWING GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS...INDICATIVE OF THE WINDS WE
MIGHT SEE AT KAPA AND KDEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT THE
WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DRAINAGE SPEEDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...DANKERS





000
FXUS65 KBOU 182023
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
223 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER COLORADO. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST
BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DENVER AREA BY 18Z WITH
WEAK NELY WINDS IN THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE THEIR RETURN
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE URBAN
CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM NEW MEXICO ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO AND NORTHWESTWARD TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME MOIST AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FRIDAY EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...UPPER 70S FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO. STILL SOME
QUESTION IF WE WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS TOO DRY...BUT IF LOW CLOUDS FORM WOULD EXPECT THEM TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER. MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION SATURDAY. THE PLAINS MAY BE CAPPED BY THE COOLER AIRMASS
SO CHANCES WILL BE LOW. THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN...INCLUDING THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER EASTERN COLORADO BY SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NEVADA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AN INCH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MORE THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
CAPES WILL BE UP TO 1000 J/KG. SO EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW POSSIBLY PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEVADA
INTO WYOMING MONDAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. A SHORT
WAVE OR TWO MAY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS COLORADO. AIRMASS
WILL DRY SLIGHTLY EACH DAY...BUT REMAIN MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. EXPECT A ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER COLORADO
AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
THURSDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THIS PATTERN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. S-SELY WINDS THIS AFTN...WL
SHIFT BACK TO SWLY THIS EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
DENVER AREA BY 18Z FRIDAY...WITH NELY WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTN.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE DENVER
AIRPORTS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLY KBJC.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 182023
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
223 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER COLORADO. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST
BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DENVER AREA BY 18Z WITH
WEAK NELY WINDS IN THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE THEIR RETURN
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE URBAN
CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM NEW MEXICO ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO AND NORTHWESTWARD TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME MOIST AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FRIDAY EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...UPPER 70S FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO. STILL SOME
QUESTION IF WE WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS TOO DRY...BUT IF LOW CLOUDS FORM WOULD EXPECT THEM TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER. MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION SATURDAY. THE PLAINS MAY BE CAPPED BY THE COOLER AIRMASS
SO CHANCES WILL BE LOW. THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN...INCLUDING THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER EASTERN COLORADO BY SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NEVADA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AN INCH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MORE THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
CAPES WILL BE UP TO 1000 J/KG. SO EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW POSSIBLY PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEVADA
INTO WYOMING MONDAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. A SHORT
WAVE OR TWO MAY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS COLORADO. AIRMASS
WILL DRY SLIGHTLY EACH DAY...BUT REMAIN MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. EXPECT A ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER COLORADO
AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
THURSDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THIS PATTERN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. S-SELY WINDS THIS AFTN...WL
SHIFT BACK TO SWLY THIS EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
DENVER AREA BY 18Z FRIDAY...WITH NELY WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTN.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE DENVER
AIRPORTS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLY KBJC.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 181645
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1045 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE STATE WILL CAP TSTM DEVELOPMENT. DRY AMS IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH SSELY SFC WINDS COULD REACH THE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE 93 FOR DENVER...WAIT AND SEE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

AREAS OF FOG WILL BE OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS THRU MID MORNING
BEFORE BURNING OFF. OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA TODAY AND THEN WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
TONIGHT. WITH WARMING MID LVL TEMPS AND DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED
WILL NOT MENTION ANY TSTMS ACROSS THE CWA. AFTN HIGHS WILL RISE
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH
OF NERN CO EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER WHERE READINGS MAY ONLY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. RECORD HIGH AT DENVER IS 93 SO NOT
IMPOSSIBLE IT COULD BE TIED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW OVER MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO FRIDAY. THEN THERE IS MORE UPPER RIDGING AND
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY IS PROGGED ON FRIDAY...WITH DOWNWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH A COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY DECENT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. EASTERLY UPSLOPE IS PROGGED
SATURDAY...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY EVENING. NORMAL DRAINAGE
FLOW IS LIKELY BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS PRETTY
DRY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN CWA
BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH IT
INCREASING OVER ALL THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.50
TO 1.00 INCH RANGE OVER ALL THE CWA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE DEW POINT READINGS ARE PROGGED IN THE LOWER
40S F WEST TO MID 50S F EAST MOST OF THE TIME DURING THE FOUR
PERIODS. THERE IS SOME CAPE OVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
HALF OF THE PLAINS LATE DAY FRIDAY. THE NAM SHOWS FAIR CAPE OVER
THE CWA SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS BARELY HAS ANY AND IT IS OVER THE
FOOTHILLS ONLY. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A TAD OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVER THE HIGH COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS DRY THEN
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE LIMITED RAINFALL IN NOTED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN. IT IS THE SAME FOR THE EVENING SATURDAY...BUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER
THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH 10-30%S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. NOTHING FOR THE PLAINS UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THEN 10-20%S. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER FAIRLY HOT DAY...MAYBE 0-1 C COOLER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS.
SATURDAY IS ABOUT 4-7 C COOLER THAN FRIDAY. FOR THE LATER DAYS
...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
SUNDAY...THEN THERE IS A CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH OVER UTAH BY
MONDAY MORNING. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO COLORADO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS MORE UPPER RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT BY THEN. THERE IS PRETTY
DECENT MOISTURE STILL PROGGED ON THE MODELS FROM SUNDAY WELL INTO
TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY DRIES OUT ON ALL THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR A TAD UNDER SEASONAL NORMALS ALL FOUR DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY SELY WINDS PROGGED
TO THIS AFTN...THEN SSWLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. FROPA ON FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE 15-18Z PERIOD.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...COOPER




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