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000
FXUS65 KBOU 212021
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
221 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IS LIMITED...SO EXPECT STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY NOT DIE
OFF DUE TO INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND ACROSS COLORADO FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS.
THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CLIMB JUST ABOVE AN INCH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TO AN INCH AND A
HALF OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG WAVE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE THE GREATEST. IF HIGHS ARE ABLE TO CLIMB IN
THE 80S OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...CAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE STORMS
IF GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND A WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...IT WILL BE COOLER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 80
DEGREES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT WITH THE TROF. PW VALUES WILL
BE CLOSE TO 1.25" SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. LATEST
MODELS HINT AT HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH. OVERALL...WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS ON FRIDAY EVENING. THE TROF WILL EXIT NORTHERN COLORADO ON
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRYING AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS WORKING
IN.

THE DRYING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO
COLORADO FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE PRETTY DECENT COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SO WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT THERE WITH CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO
COLORADO IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE WITH GOOD DRYING FOR SUNDAY
WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS IF THAT.

THE NEXT BIGGER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL COME ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS COLORADO ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE 23Z TO 04Z. WINDS MAY SHIFT DIRECTIONS A TIME
OR TWO DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE INCREASES. THERE WILL A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE STATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME MOIST ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO FRIDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LOW...BUT FLOOD PRONE AREAS COULD SEE ISSUES
IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 212021
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
221 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IS LIMITED...SO EXPECT STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY NOT DIE
OFF DUE TO INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND ACROSS COLORADO FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS.
THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CLIMB JUST ABOVE AN INCH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TO AN INCH AND A
HALF OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG WAVE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE THE GREATEST. IF HIGHS ARE ABLE TO CLIMB IN
THE 80S OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...CAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE STORMS
IF GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND A WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...IT WILL BE COOLER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 80
DEGREES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT WITH THE TROF. PW VALUES WILL
BE CLOSE TO 1.25" SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. LATEST
MODELS HINT AT HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH. OVERALL...WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS ON FRIDAY EVENING. THE TROF WILL EXIT NORTHERN COLORADO ON
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRYING AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS WORKING
IN.

THE DRYING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO
COLORADO FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE PRETTY DECENT COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SO WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT THERE WITH CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO
COLORADO IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE WITH GOOD DRYING FOR SUNDAY
WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS IF THAT.

THE NEXT BIGGER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL COME ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS COLORADO ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE 23Z TO 04Z. WINDS MAY SHIFT DIRECTIONS A TIME
OR TWO DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE INCREASES. THERE WILL A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE STATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME MOIST ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO FRIDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LOW...BUT FLOOD PRONE AREAS COULD SEE ISSUES
IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 211534
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
934 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AND THIS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK. WILL JUST MAKE
MINOR TWEAKS TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST TRENDS FOR TODAY.

THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD BRING A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SOMETIME FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE STINGY WITH
PRECIPITATION. WOULD EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE SOME MOISTURE
BECAUSE OF THE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM. PLAN ON INCREASING POPS FOR
FRIDAY TO SHOW THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN SW FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING ACROSS NERN CO EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVER THE FAR
ERN PLAINS.  BY THIS AFTN SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SOME WK MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WHICH MAY LOWER TSTM CHANCES ACROSS
THE AREA.  BY THIS EVENING THE GFS SHOWS A WK DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVER THE AREA IN SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH LEADS TO A BETTER CHC OF
CONVECTION IN THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE PLAINS.  ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE AND HAS NO PCPN OVER THE PLAINS
TONIGHT.  FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS OVER THE
PLAINS FOR TONIGHT.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 READINGS CHANGE LITTLE FM
YESTERDAY SO WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS NERN CO.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER
COLORADO WITH A FAIR AMOUNTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
STATE...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE
LATEST NAM12 STILL WANTS TO LIFT THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO
COLORADO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING INSTABILITY IN
THE AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH WEAK QG ASCENT FM THE TROUGH...WILL
SPAWN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWFA...FIRST IN THE MOUNTAINS THEN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDING AT KDEN
IS QUITE MOIST WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.15 INCHES BUT CAPES ARE
FAIRLY LOW...AROUND 100 J/KG. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH.
COULD BE FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS...BUT
IF THE CAPES ARE LOW THEN THE STORMS MAY BE LESS INTENSE...WITH
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN ISSUE.

BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WESTERLY. THERE WILL BE SOME
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AND DRIER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WITH WLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE MORNING. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PASS ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AMS DESTABILIZING
BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH CAPES CLOSE TO 600 J/KG BY 00Z AT DENVER.
PW VALUES WL NOT BE AS HIGH BUT BETTER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH THE
STORMS. LOW LEVEL SELY SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTN ALONG
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. A JET MAX IS PROGGED TO
PASS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS COLORADO AT THAT
TIME. COULD SEE SOME BANDED UPRIGHT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTN AND OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASING...SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE MORE WIND AS WELL.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
MORNING AND A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS. AMS MAY BE TOO STABLE FOR TSTMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTN...BUT TSTMS STILL AN ISSUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE. SUNDAY NIGHT...A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO STABILIZE THE AIRMASS OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. THE MDLS BRING ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE IT
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT IT SHOULD AGAIN
BE COOL WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS
WELL...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. BY
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY FINALLY END MUCH OF THE TSTMS
POTENTIAL OVER CO WITH A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 934 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AFTER 18Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECT TODAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE BEING 23Z TO 04Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT A COUPLE OF TIMES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE FROM THE STORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 211534
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
934 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AND THIS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK. WILL JUST MAKE
MINOR TWEAKS TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST TRENDS FOR TODAY.

THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD BRING A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SOMETIME FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE STINGY WITH
PRECIPITATION. WOULD EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE SOME MOISTURE
BECAUSE OF THE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM. PLAN ON INCREASING POPS FOR
FRIDAY TO SHOW THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN SW FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING ACROSS NERN CO EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVER THE FAR
ERN PLAINS.  BY THIS AFTN SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SOME WK MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WHICH MAY LOWER TSTM CHANCES ACROSS
THE AREA.  BY THIS EVENING THE GFS SHOWS A WK DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVER THE AREA IN SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH LEADS TO A BETTER CHC OF
CONVECTION IN THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE PLAINS.  ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE AND HAS NO PCPN OVER THE PLAINS
TONIGHT.  FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS OVER THE
PLAINS FOR TONIGHT.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 READINGS CHANGE LITTLE FM
YESTERDAY SO WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS NERN CO.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER
COLORADO WITH A FAIR AMOUNTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
STATE...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE
LATEST NAM12 STILL WANTS TO LIFT THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO
COLORADO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING INSTABILITY IN
THE AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH WEAK QG ASCENT FM THE TROUGH...WILL
SPAWN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWFA...FIRST IN THE MOUNTAINS THEN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDING AT KDEN
IS QUITE MOIST WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.15 INCHES BUT CAPES ARE
FAIRLY LOW...AROUND 100 J/KG. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH.
COULD BE FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS...BUT
IF THE CAPES ARE LOW THEN THE STORMS MAY BE LESS INTENSE...WITH
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN ISSUE.

BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WESTERLY. THERE WILL BE SOME
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AND DRIER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WITH WLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE MORNING. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PASS ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AMS DESTABILIZING
BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH CAPES CLOSE TO 600 J/KG BY 00Z AT DENVER.
PW VALUES WL NOT BE AS HIGH BUT BETTER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH THE
STORMS. LOW LEVEL SELY SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTN ALONG
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. A JET MAX IS PROGGED TO
PASS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS COLORADO AT THAT
TIME. COULD SEE SOME BANDED UPRIGHT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTN AND OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASING...SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE MORE WIND AS WELL.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
MORNING AND A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS. AMS MAY BE TOO STABLE FOR TSTMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTN...BUT TSTMS STILL AN ISSUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE. SUNDAY NIGHT...A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO STABILIZE THE AIRMASS OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. THE MDLS BRING ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE IT
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT IT SHOULD AGAIN
BE COOL WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS
WELL...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. BY
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY FINALLY END MUCH OF THE TSTMS
POTENTIAL OVER CO WITH A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 934 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AFTER 18Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECT TODAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE BEING 23Z TO 04Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT A COUPLE OF TIMES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE FROM THE STORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 210900
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
300 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN SW FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING ACROSS NERN CO EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVER THE FAR
ERN PLAINS.  BY THIS AFTN SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SOME WK MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WHICH MAY LOWER TSTM CHANCES ACROSS
THE AREA.  BY THIS EVENING THE GFS SHOWS A WK DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVER THE AREA IN SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH LEADS TO A BETTER CHC OF
CONVECTION IN THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE PLAINS.  ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE AND HAS NO PCPN OVER THE PLAINS
TONIGHT.  FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS OVER THE
PLAINS FOR TONIGHT.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 READINGS CHANGE LITTLE FM
YESTERDAY SO WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS NERN CO.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER
COLORADO WITH A FAIR AMOUNTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
STATE...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE
LATEST NAM12 STILL WANTS TO LIFT THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO
COLORADO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING INSTABILITY IN
THE AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH WEAK QG ASCENT FM THE TROUGH...WILL
SPAWN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWFA...FIRST IN THE MOUNTAINS THEN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDING AT KDEN
IS QUITE MOIST WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.15 INCHES BUT CAPES ARE
FAIRLY LOW...AROUND 100 J/KG. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH.
COULD BE FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS...BUT
IF THE CAPES ARE LOW THEN THE STORMS MAY BE LESS INTENSE...WITH
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN ISSUE.

BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WESTERLY. THERE WILL BE SOME
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AND DRIER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WITH WLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE MORNING. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PASS ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AMS DESTABILIZING
BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH CAPES CLOSE TO 600 J/KG BY 00Z AT DENVER.
PW VALUES WL NOT BE AS HIGH BUT BETTER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH THE
STORMS. LOW LEVEL SELY SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTN ALONG
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. A JET MAX IS PROGGED TO
PASS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS COLORADO AT THAT
TIME. COULD SEE SOME BANDED UPRIGHT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTN AND OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASING...SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE MORE WIND AS WELL.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
MORNING AND A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS. AMS MAY BE TOO STABLE FOR TSTMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTN...BUT TSTMS STILL AN ISSUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE. SUNDAY NIGHT...A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO STABILIZE THE AIRMASS OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. THE MDLS BRING ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE IT
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT IT SHOULD AGAIN
BE COOL WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS
WELL...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. BY
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY FINALLY END MUCH OF THE TSTMS
POTENTIAL OVER CO WITH A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

WINDS WERE LIGHT WSW EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY 14Z.  BY 18Z THEY SHOULD BECOME ESE AND STAY THAT WAY
THRU THE AFTN. IN THE EVENING THEY WILL BECOME MORE SLY. ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FM 22Z-02Z.  THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE TSTM THREAT
GOING THRU 06Z SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED LAST EVENING.  FOR NOW WILL
JUST MENTION VCTS FM 02Z-06Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 210900
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
300 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN SW FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING ACROSS NERN CO EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVER THE FAR
ERN PLAINS.  BY THIS AFTN SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SOME WK MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WHICH MAY LOWER TSTM CHANCES ACROSS
THE AREA.  BY THIS EVENING THE GFS SHOWS A WK DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVER THE AREA IN SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH LEADS TO A BETTER CHC OF
CONVECTION IN THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE PLAINS.  ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE AND HAS NO PCPN OVER THE PLAINS
TONIGHT.  FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS OVER THE
PLAINS FOR TONIGHT.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 READINGS CHANGE LITTLE FM
YESTERDAY SO WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS NERN CO.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER
COLORADO WITH A FAIR AMOUNTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
STATE...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE
LATEST NAM12 STILL WANTS TO LIFT THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO
COLORADO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING INSTABILITY IN
THE AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH WEAK QG ASCENT FM THE TROUGH...WILL
SPAWN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWFA...FIRST IN THE MOUNTAINS THEN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDING AT KDEN
IS QUITE MOIST WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.15 INCHES BUT CAPES ARE
FAIRLY LOW...AROUND 100 J/KG. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH.
COULD BE FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS...BUT
IF THE CAPES ARE LOW THEN THE STORMS MAY BE LESS INTENSE...WITH
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN ISSUE.

BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WESTERLY. THERE WILL BE SOME
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AND DRIER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WITH WLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE MORNING. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PASS ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AMS DESTABILIZING
BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH CAPES CLOSE TO 600 J/KG BY 00Z AT DENVER.
PW VALUES WL NOT BE AS HIGH BUT BETTER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH THE
STORMS. LOW LEVEL SELY SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTN ALONG
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. A JET MAX IS PROGGED TO
PASS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS COLORADO AT THAT
TIME. COULD SEE SOME BANDED UPRIGHT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTN AND OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASING...SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE MORE WIND AS WELL.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
MORNING AND A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS. AMS MAY BE TOO STABLE FOR TSTMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTN...BUT TSTMS STILL AN ISSUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE. SUNDAY NIGHT...A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO STABILIZE THE AIRMASS OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. THE MDLS BRING ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE IT
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT IT SHOULD AGAIN
BE COOL WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS
WELL...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. BY
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY FINALLY END MUCH OF THE TSTMS
POTENTIAL OVER CO WITH A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

WINDS WERE LIGHT WSW EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY 14Z.  BY 18Z THEY SHOULD BECOME ESE AND STAY THAT WAY
THRU THE AFTN. IN THE EVENING THEY WILL BECOME MORE SLY. ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FM 22Z-02Z.  THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE TSTM THREAT
GOING THRU 06Z SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED LAST EVENING.  FOR NOW WILL
JUST MENTION VCTS FM 02Z-06Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RPK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 210208
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
808 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO END BY
MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO MATCH UP WITH
CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

MIDLEVEL QUASIGEOSTROPHIC SUBSIDENCE /FROM RAP ANALYSES/ AND
STABILITY /ACARS DATA/ IS KIND OF KEEPING CONVECTION AT BAY AS OF
20Z. THERE ARE A FEW ECHOES ON THE RADAR BUT THEY ARE RATHER WEAK
AND SHORT-LIVED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ALSO A VERY LOCALIZED AREA
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER BOULDER COUNTY WHICH HAS LOWERED DEWPOINTS
AND GPS-MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE AND PRETTY MUCH
SQUELCHED THE CONVECTION ALTOGETHER. THE HRRR HAS BEEN A BIT
OVERZEALOUS WITH CONVECTION THAT IS SUPPOSED TO BE ONGOING AT THIS
TIME AND INSISTS ON GENERATING QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS OF THE PLAINS. THE GFS QPF FIELDS SUGGEST THE SAME
THING WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEMING A BIT MORE IN TOUCH WITH
REALITY. IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO HOLD ONTO LOW POPS IN ALL AREAS THIS
EVENING.  TOMORROW DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
TODAY. QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORECAST DIAGNOSTICS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
SUBSIDENCE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY LIKE
TODAY. CONSEQUENTLY NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE CONVECTION THAT WHAT
IS AROUND TODAY WITH THE PLAINS PERHAPS NOT SEEING ANYTHING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SHORTWAVES LIFT
OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WEST PASSING OVER COLORADO ON
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. A BIT MORE DISCREPANCY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE TROUGH SHIFTING EAST...OR JUST
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND IT.

FOR THE FRIDAY WAVE...WE WILL BE FIGHTING THE SAME ISSUES WE HAVE
HAD WITH SEVERAL OF THESE MOISTURE SURGES. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY WHILE THE LOW LEVELS DO NOT MOISTEN
MUCH...AND BY THE TIME THE BEST LIFT ARRIVES THERE IS EVEN A
LITTLE COOLING AT THE SURFACE. STILL EXPECTING INCREASED SHOWER
COVERAGE BUT MAINLY DUE TO LIFT IN THE ELEVATED MOIST LAYER. THIS
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE PLAYED WELL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I DID ADD A BIT MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME MODEL RUNS SHOW SOME
CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. ALSO SLOWED DOWN THE END OF THE SHOWERS
EARLY SATURDAY IN LINE WITH MODEL TRENDS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...DRIER AIR SHOULD TAKE AWAY THE INSTABILITY SO
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET DAYS...STILL A LITTLE DIURNAL CONVECTION
AND SOME LIFT FROM THE SECOND WAVE SUNDAY SHOULD HELP...BUT A
RATHER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK FRONT DROPPING
DOWN THE PLAINS IN THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME PERIOD RELATED TO SOME
DEEPENING OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. THIS COULD BRING INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ALSO SOME LOW LEVEL COOLING. SO ONCE AGAIN A
TRADEOFF THAT RESULTS IN SOME INCREASED COVERAGE...BUT NOT
NECESSARILY A LOT OF RAIN. THERE COULD BE AN OPTIMAL TIME ON
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY IF THE TROUGH AXIS DOES SHIFT EASTWARD WHERE
THERE IS A COMBINATION OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY. GFS WOULD SUGGEST
DRYING BEHIND THE TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDING
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WEST OF US WOULD INDICATE NO COOLING ALOFT.
SO OVERALL MINOR VARIATIONS ON AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOONS...BUT IN THE MOIST PERIODS
COULD ALLOW SOME WEAK CONVECTION WHENEVER THERE IS FORCING. BLEND
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...I
DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ON THE PLAINS IN
LINE WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WITH GREATER MOISTURE OUT
THERE THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 808 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
05Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO OUTFLOWS FROM NEAR BY
STORMS. EVENTUALLY WINDS WILL SETTLE AT A NORMAL SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION...LIKELY AROUND 06Z. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTFLOWS
FROM THE STORMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE A FEW WIND SHIFTS LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 210208
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
808 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO END BY
MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO MATCH UP WITH
CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

MIDLEVEL QUASIGEOSTROPHIC SUBSIDENCE /FROM RAP ANALYSES/ AND
STABILITY /ACARS DATA/ IS KIND OF KEEPING CONVECTION AT BAY AS OF
20Z. THERE ARE A FEW ECHOES ON THE RADAR BUT THEY ARE RATHER WEAK
AND SHORT-LIVED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ALSO A VERY LOCALIZED AREA
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER BOULDER COUNTY WHICH HAS LOWERED DEWPOINTS
AND GPS-MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE AND PRETTY MUCH
SQUELCHED THE CONVECTION ALTOGETHER. THE HRRR HAS BEEN A BIT
OVERZEALOUS WITH CONVECTION THAT IS SUPPOSED TO BE ONGOING AT THIS
TIME AND INSISTS ON GENERATING QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS OF THE PLAINS. THE GFS QPF FIELDS SUGGEST THE SAME
THING WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEMING A BIT MORE IN TOUCH WITH
REALITY. IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO HOLD ONTO LOW POPS IN ALL AREAS THIS
EVENING.  TOMORROW DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
TODAY. QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORECAST DIAGNOSTICS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
SUBSIDENCE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY LIKE
TODAY. CONSEQUENTLY NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE CONVECTION THAT WHAT
IS AROUND TODAY WITH THE PLAINS PERHAPS NOT SEEING ANYTHING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SHORTWAVES LIFT
OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WEST PASSING OVER COLORADO ON
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. A BIT MORE DISCREPANCY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE TROUGH SHIFTING EAST...OR JUST
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND IT.

FOR THE FRIDAY WAVE...WE WILL BE FIGHTING THE SAME ISSUES WE HAVE
HAD WITH SEVERAL OF THESE MOISTURE SURGES. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY WHILE THE LOW LEVELS DO NOT MOISTEN
MUCH...AND BY THE TIME THE BEST LIFT ARRIVES THERE IS EVEN A
LITTLE COOLING AT THE SURFACE. STILL EXPECTING INCREASED SHOWER
COVERAGE BUT MAINLY DUE TO LIFT IN THE ELEVATED MOIST LAYER. THIS
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE PLAYED WELL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I DID ADD A BIT MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME MODEL RUNS SHOW SOME
CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. ALSO SLOWED DOWN THE END OF THE SHOWERS
EARLY SATURDAY IN LINE WITH MODEL TRENDS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...DRIER AIR SHOULD TAKE AWAY THE INSTABILITY SO
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET DAYS...STILL A LITTLE DIURNAL CONVECTION
AND SOME LIFT FROM THE SECOND WAVE SUNDAY SHOULD HELP...BUT A
RATHER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK FRONT DROPPING
DOWN THE PLAINS IN THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME PERIOD RELATED TO SOME
DEEPENING OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. THIS COULD BRING INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ALSO SOME LOW LEVEL COOLING. SO ONCE AGAIN A
TRADEOFF THAT RESULTS IN SOME INCREASED COVERAGE...BUT NOT
NECESSARILY A LOT OF RAIN. THERE COULD BE AN OPTIMAL TIME ON
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY IF THE TROUGH AXIS DOES SHIFT EASTWARD WHERE
THERE IS A COMBINATION OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY. GFS WOULD SUGGEST
DRYING BEHIND THE TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDING
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WEST OF US WOULD INDICATE NO COOLING ALOFT.
SO OVERALL MINOR VARIATIONS ON AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOONS...BUT IN THE MOIST PERIODS
COULD ALLOW SOME WEAK CONVECTION WHENEVER THERE IS FORCING. BLEND
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...I
DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ON THE PLAINS IN
LINE WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WITH GREATER MOISTURE OUT
THERE THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 808 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
05Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO OUTFLOWS FROM NEAR BY
STORMS. EVENTUALLY WINDS WILL SETTLE AT A NORMAL SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION...LIKELY AROUND 06Z. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTFLOWS
FROM THE STORMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE A FEW WIND SHIFTS LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 202103
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
303 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

MIDLEVEL QUASIGEOSTROPHIC SUBSIDENCE /FROM RAP ANALYSES/ AND
STABILITY /ACARS DATA/ IS KIND OF KEEPING CONVECTION AT BAY AS OF
20Z. THERE ARE A FEW ECHOES ON THE RADAR BUT THEY ARE RATHER WEAK
AND SHORT-LIVED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ALSO A VERY LOCALIZED AREA
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER BOULDER COUNTY WHICH HAS LOWERED DEWPOINTS
AND GPS-MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE AND PRETTY MUCH
SQUELCHED THE CONVECTION ALTOGETHER. THE HRRR HAS BEEN A BIT
OVERZEALOUS WITH CONVECTION THAT IS SUPPOSED TO BE ONGOING AT THIS
TIME AND INSISTS ON GENERATING QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS OF THE PLAINS. THE GFS QPF FIELDS SUGGEST THE SAME
THING WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEMING A BIT MORE IN TOUCH WITH
REALITY. IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO HOLD ONTO LOW POPS IN ALL AREAS THIS
EVENING.  TOMORROW DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
TODAY. QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORECAST DIAGNOSTICS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
SUBSIDENCE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY LIKE
TODAY. CONSEQUENTLY NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE CONVECTION THAT WHAT
IS AROUND TODAY WITH THE PLAINS PERHAPS NOT SEEING ANYTHING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SHORTWAVES LIFT
OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WEST PASSING OVER COLORADO ON
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. A BIT MORE DISCREPANCY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE TROUGH SHIFTING EAST...OR JUST
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND IT.

FOR THE FRIDAY WAVE...WE WILL BE FIGHTING THE SAME ISSUES WE HAVE
HAD WITH SEVERAL OF THESE MOISTURE SURGES. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY WHILE THE LOW LEVELS DO NOT MOISTEN
MUCH...AND BY THE TIME THE BEST LIFT ARRIVES THERE IS EVEN A
LITTLE COOLING AT THE SURFACE. STILL EXPECTING INCREASED SHOWER
COVERAGE BUT MAINLY DUE TO LIFT IN THE ELEVATED MOIST LAYER. THIS
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE PLAYED WELL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I DID ADD A BIT MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME MODEL RUNS SHOW SOME
CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. ALSO SLOWED DOWN THE END OF THE SHOWERS
EARLY SATURDAY IN LINE WITH MODEL TRENDS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...DRIER AIR SHOULD TAKE AWAY THE INSTABILITY SO
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET DAYS...STILL A LITTLE DIURNAL CONVECTION
AND SOME LIFT FROM THE SECOND WAVE SUNDAY SHOULD HELP...BUT A
RATHER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK FRONT DROPPING
DOWN THE PLAINS IN THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME PERIOD RELATED TO SOME
DEEPENING OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. THIS COULD BRING INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ALSO SOME LOW LEVEL COOLING. SO ONCE AGAIN A
TRADEOFF THAT RESULTS IN SOME INCREASED COVERAGE...BUT NOT
NECESSARILY A LOT OF RAIN. THERE COULD BE AN OPTIMAL TIME ON
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY IF THE TROUGH AXIS DOES SHIFT EASTWARD WHERE
THERE IS A COMBINATION OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY. GFS WOULD SUGGEST
DRYING BEHIND THE TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDING
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WEST OF US WOULD INDICATE NO COOLING ALOFT.
SO OVERALL MINOR VARIATIONS ON AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOONS...BUT IN THE MOIST PERIODS
COULD ALLOW SOME WEAK CONVECTION WHENEVER THERE IS FORCING. BLEND
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...I
DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ON THE PLAINS IN
LINE WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WITH GREATER MOISTURE OUT
THERE THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

IF PRESENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE IT LOOKS LIKE KAPA WOULD HAVE THE
BEST /ALBEIT SMALL/ CHANCE OF SEEING SOME THUNDER THIS EVENING.
THE 19Z HRRR MODEL IS STILL INSISTING ON CREATING A LOT OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY AT
THIS POINT. THUS KBJC AND KDEN MAY MAKE IT THROUGH THE EVENING
WITHOUT ANY THUNDER. KBJC SHOULD SEE DOWNSLOPE FLOW/DRAINAGE WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 8-15KT RANGE. KAPA AND KDEN
WILL HAVE LIGHTER WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH DRAINAGE FLOW
KICKING IN AFTER DARK.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...ET




000
FXUS65 KBOU 202103
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
303 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

MIDLEVEL QUASIGEOSTROPHIC SUBSIDENCE /FROM RAP ANALYSES/ AND
STABILITY /ACARS DATA/ IS KIND OF KEEPING CONVECTION AT BAY AS OF
20Z. THERE ARE A FEW ECHOES ON THE RADAR BUT THEY ARE RATHER WEAK
AND SHORT-LIVED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ALSO A VERY LOCALIZED AREA
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER BOULDER COUNTY WHICH HAS LOWERED DEWPOINTS
AND GPS-MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE AND PRETTY MUCH
SQUELCHED THE CONVECTION ALTOGETHER. THE HRRR HAS BEEN A BIT
OVERZEALOUS WITH CONVECTION THAT IS SUPPOSED TO BE ONGOING AT THIS
TIME AND INSISTS ON GENERATING QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS OF THE PLAINS. THE GFS QPF FIELDS SUGGEST THE SAME
THING WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEMING A BIT MORE IN TOUCH WITH
REALITY. IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO HOLD ONTO LOW POPS IN ALL AREAS THIS
EVENING.  TOMORROW DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
TODAY. QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORECAST DIAGNOSTICS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
SUBSIDENCE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY LIKE
TODAY. CONSEQUENTLY NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE CONVECTION THAT WHAT
IS AROUND TODAY WITH THE PLAINS PERHAPS NOT SEEING ANYTHING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SHORTWAVES LIFT
OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WEST PASSING OVER COLORADO ON
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. A BIT MORE DISCREPANCY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE TROUGH SHIFTING EAST...OR JUST
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND IT.

FOR THE FRIDAY WAVE...WE WILL BE FIGHTING THE SAME ISSUES WE HAVE
HAD WITH SEVERAL OF THESE MOISTURE SURGES. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY WHILE THE LOW LEVELS DO NOT MOISTEN
MUCH...AND BY THE TIME THE BEST LIFT ARRIVES THERE IS EVEN A
LITTLE COOLING AT THE SURFACE. STILL EXPECTING INCREASED SHOWER
COVERAGE BUT MAINLY DUE TO LIFT IN THE ELEVATED MOIST LAYER. THIS
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE PLAYED WELL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I DID ADD A BIT MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME MODEL RUNS SHOW SOME
CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. ALSO SLOWED DOWN THE END OF THE SHOWERS
EARLY SATURDAY IN LINE WITH MODEL TRENDS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...DRIER AIR SHOULD TAKE AWAY THE INSTABILITY SO
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET DAYS...STILL A LITTLE DIURNAL CONVECTION
AND SOME LIFT FROM THE SECOND WAVE SUNDAY SHOULD HELP...BUT A
RATHER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK FRONT DROPPING
DOWN THE PLAINS IN THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME PERIOD RELATED TO SOME
DEEPENING OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. THIS COULD BRING INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ALSO SOME LOW LEVEL COOLING. SO ONCE AGAIN A
TRADEOFF THAT RESULTS IN SOME INCREASED COVERAGE...BUT NOT
NECESSARILY A LOT OF RAIN. THERE COULD BE AN OPTIMAL TIME ON
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY IF THE TROUGH AXIS DOES SHIFT EASTWARD WHERE
THERE IS A COMBINATION OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY. GFS WOULD SUGGEST
DRYING BEHIND THE TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDING
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WEST OF US WOULD INDICATE NO COOLING ALOFT.
SO OVERALL MINOR VARIATIONS ON AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOONS...BUT IN THE MOIST PERIODS
COULD ALLOW SOME WEAK CONVECTION WHENEVER THERE IS FORCING. BLEND
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...I
DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ON THE PLAINS IN
LINE WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WITH GREATER MOISTURE OUT
THERE THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

IF PRESENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE IT LOOKS LIKE KAPA WOULD HAVE THE
BEST /ALBEIT SMALL/ CHANCE OF SEEING SOME THUNDER THIS EVENING.
THE 19Z HRRR MODEL IS STILL INSISTING ON CREATING A LOT OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY AT
THIS POINT. THUS KBJC AND KDEN MAY MAKE IT THROUGH THE EVENING
WITHOUT ANY THUNDER. KBJC SHOULD SEE DOWNSLOPE FLOW/DRAINAGE WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 8-15KT RANGE. KAPA AND KDEN
WILL HAVE LIGHTER WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH DRAINAGE FLOW
KICKING IN AFTER DARK.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...ET





000
FXUS65 KBOU 201536
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
936 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THINGS AT THIS POINT IN
TIME. GPS-MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER NUMBERS ARE UP QUITE A BIT
FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME OVER THE PLAINS WITH LESS CHANGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN COLORADO. QUASIGEOSTROPHIC DYNAMICS WILL
BE PROVIDING SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER PARTS OF WESTERN COLORADO WHICH
MAY LESSEN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST
PARTS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER SOME WEAK ASCENT IS PREDICTED OVER THE
PLAINS WHICH MAY HELP THINGS OUT A BIT THERE. INDEED THE LATEST
HRRR SUGGESTS MORE ACTIVITY OVER PLAINS THAN THE MOUNTAINS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN LATER RUNS AND
PERHAPS ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH STILL
SOME MONSOON MOISTURE AFFECTING THE AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BY AFTN WILL BE AOA AN INCH OVER NERN CO WITH LOWER VALUES OVER THE
MTNS.  OVERALL WILL KEEP SCT TSTMS IN THE MTNS WITH WIDELY SCT
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.  CAPES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 500-
1000 J/KG SO THREAT OF SVR IS LOW HOWEVER MAY SEEM A FEW SPOTS
RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER THE PLAINS WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE THE HIGHEST ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN CO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE STATE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN U.S. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE IS NOT AS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER CO WITH THE BEST CHC OF
TSTMS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTN/EVNG...WITH
LESSER POPS OVER THE NERN PLAINS. NAM12 SOUNDINGS AT DENVER
INDICATE PW VALUES AROUND .6 TO .7 INCHES WITH STORM MOTIONS
AROUND 15 MPH. MAIN THREAT FM THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN...BUT OVERALL FLOODING THREAT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MODERATE RANGE.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS TRIES TO LIFT THE TROUGH FM THE GREAT
BASIN INTO CO...WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM12 HOLD THE SYSTEM BACK.
THE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE BETTER ESTABLISHED
OVER NERN CO. NAM12 SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY INCREASE THE PW VALUES
BACK TO AROUND ONE INCH...SO THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHUD PRODUCE
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE
OVERALL STORM MOTIONS HOWEVER WILL BE FASTER (20-25 MPH). AS A
RESULT THE FLASH FLOOD RISK MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH FM THURSDAY.
OVERALL THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE
...ASSUMING THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER DOES NOT OFFSET THE HEATING
TOO MUCH.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE MDLS DROPPING ANOTHER TROUGH FM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANDS INTO CENTRAL AND SRN IDAHO BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE MDLS THEN DRAG THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
MONTANA/WYOMING LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD AGAIN SEE
A DECENT COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70 TO
THE CO/WY LINE SATURDAY NIGHT. WL INCREASE THE POPS IN THOSE AREAS
IN THE GRIDS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF COLORADO WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
CWFA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE COOLER AMS SHOULD HELP CAP MUCH OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NERN PLAINS WITH THE BEST CHC OF TSTMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MDLS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SO
HARD TO SETTLE ON ONE SOLUTION WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER OVER THE WRN U.S. FOR
NOW THE OVERALL TREND WL BE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS EACH
AFTN/EVNG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

WENT WITH TEMPO TS IN THE DENVER TAF AT 15Z BASED MAINLY ON HRRR
OUTPUT. CURRENT TIMING FOR THUNDER IN THE TAFS SEEMS REASONABLE.
LITTLE ELSE OF CONCERN AS WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT ASIDE
FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ET
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ET




000
FXUS65 KBOU 201536
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
936 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THINGS AT THIS POINT IN
TIME. GPS-MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER NUMBERS ARE UP QUITE A BIT
FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME OVER THE PLAINS WITH LESS CHANGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN COLORADO. QUASIGEOSTROPHIC DYNAMICS WILL
BE PROVIDING SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER PARTS OF WESTERN COLORADO WHICH
MAY LESSEN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST
PARTS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER SOME WEAK ASCENT IS PREDICTED OVER THE
PLAINS WHICH MAY HELP THINGS OUT A BIT THERE. INDEED THE LATEST
HRRR SUGGESTS MORE ACTIVITY OVER PLAINS THAN THE MOUNTAINS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN LATER RUNS AND
PERHAPS ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH STILL
SOME MONSOON MOISTURE AFFECTING THE AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BY AFTN WILL BE AOA AN INCH OVER NERN CO WITH LOWER VALUES OVER THE
MTNS.  OVERALL WILL KEEP SCT TSTMS IN THE MTNS WITH WIDELY SCT
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.  CAPES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 500-
1000 J/KG SO THREAT OF SVR IS LOW HOWEVER MAY SEEM A FEW SPOTS
RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER THE PLAINS WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE THE HIGHEST ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN CO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE STATE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN U.S. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE IS NOT AS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER CO WITH THE BEST CHC OF
TSTMS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTN/EVNG...WITH
LESSER POPS OVER THE NERN PLAINS. NAM12 SOUNDINGS AT DENVER
INDICATE PW VALUES AROUND .6 TO .7 INCHES WITH STORM MOTIONS
AROUND 15 MPH. MAIN THREAT FM THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN...BUT OVERALL FLOODING THREAT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MODERATE RANGE.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS TRIES TO LIFT THE TROUGH FM THE GREAT
BASIN INTO CO...WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM12 HOLD THE SYSTEM BACK.
THE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE BETTER ESTABLISHED
OVER NERN CO. NAM12 SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY INCREASE THE PW VALUES
BACK TO AROUND ONE INCH...SO THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHUD PRODUCE
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE
OVERALL STORM MOTIONS HOWEVER WILL BE FASTER (20-25 MPH). AS A
RESULT THE FLASH FLOOD RISK MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH FM THURSDAY.
OVERALL THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE
...ASSUMING THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER DOES NOT OFFSET THE HEATING
TOO MUCH.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE MDLS DROPPING ANOTHER TROUGH FM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANDS INTO CENTRAL AND SRN IDAHO BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE MDLS THEN DRAG THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
MONTANA/WYOMING LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD AGAIN SEE
A DECENT COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70 TO
THE CO/WY LINE SATURDAY NIGHT. WL INCREASE THE POPS IN THOSE AREAS
IN THE GRIDS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF COLORADO WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
CWFA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE COOLER AMS SHOULD HELP CAP MUCH OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NERN PLAINS WITH THE BEST CHC OF TSTMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MDLS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SO
HARD TO SETTLE ON ONE SOLUTION WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER OVER THE WRN U.S. FOR
NOW THE OVERALL TREND WL BE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS EACH
AFTN/EVNG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

WENT WITH TEMPO TS IN THE DENVER TAF AT 15Z BASED MAINLY ON HRRR
OUTPUT. CURRENT TIMING FOR THUNDER IN THE TAFS SEEMS REASONABLE.
LITTLE ELSE OF CONCERN AS WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT ASIDE
FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ET
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ET





000
FXUS65 KBOU 200839
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
239 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH STILL
SOME MONSOON MOISTURE AFFECTING THE AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BY AFTN WILL BE AOA AN INCH OVER NERN CO WITH LOWER VALUES OVER THE
MTNS.  OVERALL WILL KEEP SCT TSTMS IN THE MTNS WITH WIDELY SCT
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.  CAPES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 500-
1000 J/KG SO THREAT OF SVR IS LOW HOWEVER MAY SEEM A FEW SPOTS
RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER THE PLAINS WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE THE HIGHEST ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN CO.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE STATE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN U.S. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE IS NOT AS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER CO WITH THE BEST CHC OF
TSTMS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTN/EVNG...WITH
LESSER POPS OVER THE NERN PLAINS. NAM12 SOUNDINGS AT DENVER
INDICATE PW VALUES AROUND .6 TO .7 INCHES WITH STORM MOTIONS
AROUND 15 MPH. MAIN THREAT FM THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN...BUT OVERALL FLOODING THREAT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MODERATE RANGE.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS TRIES TO LIFT THE TROUGH FM THE GREAT
BASIN INTO CO...WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM12 HOLD THE SYSTEM BACK.
THE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE BETTER ESTABLISHED
OVER NERN CO. NAM12 SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY INCREASE THE PW VALUES
BACK TO AROUND ONE INCH...SO THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHUD PRODUCE
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE
OVERALL STORM MOTIONS HOWEVER WILL BE FASTER (20-25 MPH). AS A
RESULT THE FLASH FLOOD RISK MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH FM THURSDAY.
OVERALL THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE
...ASSUMING THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER DOES NOT OFFSET THE HEATING
TOO MUCH.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE MDLS DROPPING ANOTHER TROUGH FM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANDS INTO CENTRAL AND SRN IDAHO BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE MDLS THEN DRAG THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
MONTANA/WYOMING LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD AGAIN SEE
A DECENT COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70 TO
THE CO/WY LINE SATURDAY NIGHT. WL INCREASE THE POPS IN THOSE AREAS
IN THE GRIDS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF COLORADO WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
CWFA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE COOLER AMS SHOULD HELP CAP MUCH OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NERN PLAINS WITH THE BEST CHC OF TSTMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MDLS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SO
HARD TO SETTLE ON ONE SOLUTION WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER OVER THE WRN U.S. FOR
NOW THE OVERALL TREND WL BE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS EACH
AFTN/EVNG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

WIDELY SCT TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE FM ANY STORM.  WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE LIGHT SWLY AND WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN NATURE
AFTER SUNRISE. BY MIDDAY THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT ELY HOWEVER BY
21Z EXPECT WINDS MAY BECOME MORE WSW AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVE
ACROSS. FOR THIS EARLY EVENING WILL WINDS MAY BECOME MORE WNW FOR
A FEW HOURS BUT THEN BECOME SSW BY 06Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 200839
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
239 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH STILL
SOME MONSOON MOISTURE AFFECTING THE AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BY AFTN WILL BE AOA AN INCH OVER NERN CO WITH LOWER VALUES OVER THE
MTNS.  OVERALL WILL KEEP SCT TSTMS IN THE MTNS WITH WIDELY SCT
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.  CAPES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 500-
1000 J/KG SO THREAT OF SVR IS LOW HOWEVER MAY SEEM A FEW SPOTS
RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER THE PLAINS WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE THE HIGHEST ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN CO.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE STATE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN U.S. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE IS NOT AS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER CO WITH THE BEST CHC OF
TSTMS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTN/EVNG...WITH
LESSER POPS OVER THE NERN PLAINS. NAM12 SOUNDINGS AT DENVER
INDICATE PW VALUES AROUND .6 TO .7 INCHES WITH STORM MOTIONS
AROUND 15 MPH. MAIN THREAT FM THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN...BUT OVERALL FLOODING THREAT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MODERATE RANGE.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS TRIES TO LIFT THE TROUGH FM THE GREAT
BASIN INTO CO...WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM12 HOLD THE SYSTEM BACK.
THE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE BETTER ESTABLISHED
OVER NERN CO. NAM12 SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY INCREASE THE PW VALUES
BACK TO AROUND ONE INCH...SO THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHUD PRODUCE
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE
OVERALL STORM MOTIONS HOWEVER WILL BE FASTER (20-25 MPH). AS A
RESULT THE FLASH FLOOD RISK MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH FM THURSDAY.
OVERALL THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE
...ASSUMING THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER DOES NOT OFFSET THE HEATING
TOO MUCH.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE MDLS DROPPING ANOTHER TROUGH FM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANDS INTO CENTRAL AND SRN IDAHO BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE MDLS THEN DRAG THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
MONTANA/WYOMING LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD AGAIN SEE
A DECENT COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70 TO
THE CO/WY LINE SATURDAY NIGHT. WL INCREASE THE POPS IN THOSE AREAS
IN THE GRIDS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF COLORADO WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
CWFA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE COOLER AMS SHOULD HELP CAP MUCH OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NERN PLAINS WITH THE BEST CHC OF TSTMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MDLS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SO
HARD TO SETTLE ON ONE SOLUTION WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER OVER THE WRN U.S. FOR
NOW THE OVERALL TREND WL BE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS EACH
AFTN/EVNG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

WIDELY SCT TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE FM ANY STORM.  WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE LIGHT SWLY AND WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN NATURE
AFTER SUNRISE. BY MIDDAY THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT ELY HOWEVER BY
21Z EXPECT WINDS MAY BECOME MORE WSW AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVE
ACROSS. FOR THIS EARLY EVENING WILL WINDS MAY BECOME MORE WNW FOR
A FEW HOURS BUT THEN BECOME SSW BY 06Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RPK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 200218
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
818 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AT THIS TIME. ONE IS
EXITING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY 1000 PM. THE OTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS OVER WESTERN
COLORADO. THIS WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE...MAINLY
AFFECTING SUMMIT...GRAND...JACKSON AND LARIMER COUNTIES. WILL KEEP
LOW POPS OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR PAST MIDNIGHT AS THIS WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. WILL TWEAK GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND EVEN PAST MIDNIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH COLORADO. ALSO KEPT LOW POPS IN ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

DIURNAL CONVECTION TAKING OFF ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND WILL BE
SPREADING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. PLAINS INITIALLY CAPPED BUT
ONCE OUTFLOWS START TO MOVE EAST THEY WILL GENERATE SOME NEW
CONVECTION. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THIS MAY SKIP OVER THE DRIER AIR
IN THE DENVER AREA AND THEN CONSOLIDATE IN THE BETTER MOISTURE ON
THE PLAINS. ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHOWER BAND WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING IT SHOULD WEAKEN
COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LARGER SCALE MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THIS WILL NOT
SURVIVE COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW
SPRINKLES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE LIFT WILL BE EAST OF COLORADO WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...400-800 J/KG ON THE
PLAINS AND EVEN LESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED
STORMS ON THE PLAINS AND A FEW LATE DAY STORMS ON THE PLAINS...BUT
MORE LIMITED IN NUMBER AND WEAK. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD...A MILD NIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER THEN SIMILAR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING UP INTO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SEE SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LACK ONTO ANY ONE
PARTICULAR MODEL. OVERNIGHT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
SLOWLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NEWRD OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE AT ITS DEEPEST OVER
COLORADO ON THURSDAY...SECOND ONLY TO THAT OF TODAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL EAST OF THE MTNS
ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE PLAINS.
FOR THIS REASON...HAVE RAISED POPS ANOTHER 10 PCT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES HIGHER ON GFS AND LOWER ON ECMWF.
SO MAY OR MAY NOT SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MODELS SPLIT THE THE UPPER TROUGH INTO TWO LOBES ON FRIDAY. THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE LOBE RACING NEWRD AWAY FROM COLORADO AND OVER THE
DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH A SECOND POTENTIALLY STRONGEST
PIECE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. COULD SEE ANOTHER BAND OF MONSOON MOISTURE PASSING
OVER COLORADO ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HELP TO FUEL ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS ON THE PLAINS AND SCATTERED STORMS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. BY SATURDAY...THE SECOND TROUGH
LOBE SWINGS CLOSER TO COLORADO CAUSING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY. THIS SHIFT IN FLOW DEFLECTS THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
AWAY FROM COLORADO AND OVER THE SRN/CNTRL GREAT PLAINS. SO SATURDAY
LOOKS A BIT DRIER AND WARMER. BY SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE WESTERN
TROUGH AND ITS BATCH OF RELATIVELY COOL AND MOIST AIR MOVING OVER
THE STATE. ALSO SEE A COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH ACRS NERN COLORADO
SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER AND WETTER. SUNDAY
MAY ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF A STRETCH OF COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
WETTER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 818 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AFTER
06Z. IF ANYTHING FORMS...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOW CHANCES. NORMAL SOUTHERLY
DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST BY 18Z. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 200218
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
818 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AT THIS TIME. ONE IS
EXITING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY 1000 PM. THE OTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS OVER WESTERN
COLORADO. THIS WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE...MAINLY
AFFECTING SUMMIT...GRAND...JACKSON AND LARIMER COUNTIES. WILL KEEP
LOW POPS OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR PAST MIDNIGHT AS THIS WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. WILL TWEAK GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND EVEN PAST MIDNIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH COLORADO. ALSO KEPT LOW POPS IN ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

DIURNAL CONVECTION TAKING OFF ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND WILL BE
SPREADING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. PLAINS INITIALLY CAPPED BUT
ONCE OUTFLOWS START TO MOVE EAST THEY WILL GENERATE SOME NEW
CONVECTION. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THIS MAY SKIP OVER THE DRIER AIR
IN THE DENVER AREA AND THEN CONSOLIDATE IN THE BETTER MOISTURE ON
THE PLAINS. ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHOWER BAND WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING IT SHOULD WEAKEN
COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LARGER SCALE MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THIS WILL NOT
SURVIVE COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW
SPRINKLES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE LIFT WILL BE EAST OF COLORADO WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...400-800 J/KG ON THE
PLAINS AND EVEN LESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED
STORMS ON THE PLAINS AND A FEW LATE DAY STORMS ON THE PLAINS...BUT
MORE LIMITED IN NUMBER AND WEAK. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD...A MILD NIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER THEN SIMILAR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING UP INTO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SEE SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LACK ONTO ANY ONE
PARTICULAR MODEL. OVERNIGHT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
SLOWLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NEWRD OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE AT ITS DEEPEST OVER
COLORADO ON THURSDAY...SECOND ONLY TO THAT OF TODAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL EAST OF THE MTNS
ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE PLAINS.
FOR THIS REASON...HAVE RAISED POPS ANOTHER 10 PCT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES HIGHER ON GFS AND LOWER ON ECMWF.
SO MAY OR MAY NOT SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MODELS SPLIT THE THE UPPER TROUGH INTO TWO LOBES ON FRIDAY. THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE LOBE RACING NEWRD AWAY FROM COLORADO AND OVER THE
DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH A SECOND POTENTIALLY STRONGEST
PIECE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. COULD SEE ANOTHER BAND OF MONSOON MOISTURE PASSING
OVER COLORADO ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HELP TO FUEL ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS ON THE PLAINS AND SCATTERED STORMS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. BY SATURDAY...THE SECOND TROUGH
LOBE SWINGS CLOSER TO COLORADO CAUSING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY. THIS SHIFT IN FLOW DEFLECTS THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
AWAY FROM COLORADO AND OVER THE SRN/CNTRL GREAT PLAINS. SO SATURDAY
LOOKS A BIT DRIER AND WARMER. BY SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE WESTERN
TROUGH AND ITS BATCH OF RELATIVELY COOL AND MOIST AIR MOVING OVER
THE STATE. ALSO SEE A COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH ACRS NERN COLORADO
SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER AND WETTER. SUNDAY
MAY ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF A STRETCH OF COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
WETTER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 818 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AFTER
06Z. IF ANYTHING FORMS...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOW CHANCES. NORMAL SOUTHERLY
DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST BY 18Z. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 200036
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
636 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND EVEN PAST MIDNIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH COLORADO. ALSO KEPT LOW POPS IN ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

DIURNAL CONVECTION TAKING OFF ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND WILL BE
SPREADING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. PLAINS INITIALLY CAPPED BUT
ONCE OUTFLOWS START TO MOVE EAST THEY WILL GENERATE SOME NEW
CONVECTION. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THIS MAY SKIP OVER THE DRIER AIR
IN THE DENVER AREA AND THEN CONSOLIDATE IN THE BETTER MOISTURE ON
THE PLAINS. ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHOWER BAND WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING IT SHOULD WEAKEN
COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LARGER SCALE MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THIS WILL NOT
SURVIVE COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW
SPRINKLES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE LIFT WILL BE EAST OF COLORADO WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...400-800 J/KG ON THE
PLAINS AND EVEN LESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED
STORMS ON THE PLAINS AND A FEW LATE DAY STORMS ON THE PLAINS...BUT
MORE LIMITED IN NUMBER AND WEAK. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD...A MILD NIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER THEN SIMILAR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING UP INTO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SEE SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LACK ONTO ANY ONE
PARTICULAR MODEL. OVERNIGHT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
SLOWLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NEWRD OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE AT ITS DEEPEST OVER
COLORADO ON THURSDAY...SECOND ONLY TO THAT OF TODAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL EAST OF THE MTNS
ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE PLAINS.
FOR THIS REASON...HAVE RAISED POPS ANOTHER 10 PCT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES HIGHER ON GFS AND LOWER ON ECMWF.
SO MAY OR MAY NOT SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MODELS SPLIT THE THE UPPER TROUGH INTO TWO LOBES ON FRIDAY. THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE LOBE RACING NEWRD AWAY FROM COLORADO AND OVER THE
DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH A SECOND POTENTIALLY STRONGEST
PIECE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. COULD SEE ANOTHER BAND OF MONSOON MOISTURE PASSING
OVER COLORADO ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HELP TO FUEL ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS ON THE PLAINS AND SCATTERED STORMS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. BY SATURDAY...THE SECOND TROUGH
LOBE SWINGS CLOSER TO COLORADO CAUSING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY. THIS SHIFT IN FLOW DEFLECTS THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
AWAY FROM COLORADO AND OVER THE SRN/CNTRL GREAT PLAINS. SO SATURDAY
LOOKS A BIT DRIER AND WARMER. BY SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE WESTERN
TROUGH AND ITS BATCH OF RELATIVELY COOL AND MOIST AIR MOVING OVER
THE STATE. ALSO SEE A COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH ACRS NERN COLORADO
SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER AND WETTER. SUNDAY
MAY ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF A STRETCH OF COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
WETTER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING A COUPLE WAVES OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DENVER AREA...ONE IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER THIS EVENING...WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFTS.
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...LIGHTER
WINDS AFTER THAT BUT STILL VARIABLE DIRECTIONS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED
STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 200036
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
636 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND EVEN PAST MIDNIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH COLORADO. ALSO KEPT LOW POPS IN ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

DIURNAL CONVECTION TAKING OFF ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND WILL BE
SPREADING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. PLAINS INITIALLY CAPPED BUT
ONCE OUTFLOWS START TO MOVE EAST THEY WILL GENERATE SOME NEW
CONVECTION. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THIS MAY SKIP OVER THE DRIER AIR
IN THE DENVER AREA AND THEN CONSOLIDATE IN THE BETTER MOISTURE ON
THE PLAINS. ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHOWER BAND WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING IT SHOULD WEAKEN
COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LARGER SCALE MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THIS WILL NOT
SURVIVE COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW
SPRINKLES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE LIFT WILL BE EAST OF COLORADO WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...400-800 J/KG ON THE
PLAINS AND EVEN LESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED
STORMS ON THE PLAINS AND A FEW LATE DAY STORMS ON THE PLAINS...BUT
MORE LIMITED IN NUMBER AND WEAK. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD...A MILD NIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER THEN SIMILAR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING UP INTO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SEE SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LACK ONTO ANY ONE
PARTICULAR MODEL. OVERNIGHT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
SLOWLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NEWRD OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE AT ITS DEEPEST OVER
COLORADO ON THURSDAY...SECOND ONLY TO THAT OF TODAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL EAST OF THE MTNS
ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE PLAINS.
FOR THIS REASON...HAVE RAISED POPS ANOTHER 10 PCT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES HIGHER ON GFS AND LOWER ON ECMWF.
SO MAY OR MAY NOT SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MODELS SPLIT THE THE UPPER TROUGH INTO TWO LOBES ON FRIDAY. THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE LOBE RACING NEWRD AWAY FROM COLORADO AND OVER THE
DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH A SECOND POTENTIALLY STRONGEST
PIECE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. COULD SEE ANOTHER BAND OF MONSOON MOISTURE PASSING
OVER COLORADO ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HELP TO FUEL ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS ON THE PLAINS AND SCATTERED STORMS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. BY SATURDAY...THE SECOND TROUGH
LOBE SWINGS CLOSER TO COLORADO CAUSING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY. THIS SHIFT IN FLOW DEFLECTS THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
AWAY FROM COLORADO AND OVER THE SRN/CNTRL GREAT PLAINS. SO SATURDAY
LOOKS A BIT DRIER AND WARMER. BY SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE WESTERN
TROUGH AND ITS BATCH OF RELATIVELY COOL AND MOIST AIR MOVING OVER
THE STATE. ALSO SEE A COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH ACRS NERN COLORADO
SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER AND WETTER. SUNDAY
MAY ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF A STRETCH OF COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
WETTER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING A COUPLE WAVES OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DENVER AREA...ONE IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER THIS EVENING...WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFTS.
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...LIGHTER
WINDS AFTER THAT BUT STILL VARIABLE DIRECTIONS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED
STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD





000
FXUS65 KBOU 192150
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
350 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

DIURNAL CONVECTION TAKING OFF ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND WILL BE
SPREADING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. PLAINS INITIALLY CAPPED BUT
ONCE OUTFLOWS START TO MOVE EAST THEY WILL GENERATE SOME NEW
CONVECTION. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THIS MAY SKIP OVER THE DRIER AIR
IN THE DENVER AREA AND THEN CONSOLIDATE IN THE BETTER MOISTURE ON
THE PLAINS. ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHOWER BAND WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING IT SHOULD WEAKEN
COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LARGER SCALE MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THIS WILL NOT
SURVIVE COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW
SPRINKLES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE LIFT WILL BE EAST OF COLORADO WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...400-800 J/KG ON THE
PLAINS AND EVEN LESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED
STORMS ON THE PLAINS AND A FEW LATE DAY STORMS ON THE PLAINS...BUT
MORE LIMITED IN NUMBER AND WEAK. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD...A MILD NIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER THEN SIMILAR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING UP INTO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SEE SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LACK ONTO ANY ONE
PARTICULAR MODEL. OVERNIGHT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
SLOWLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NEWRD OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE AT ITS DEEPEST OVER
COLORADO ON THURSDAY...SECOND ONLY TO THAT OF TODAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL EAST OF THE MTNS
ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE PLAINS.
FOR THIS REASON...HAVE RAISED POPS ANOTHER 10 PCT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES HIGHER ON GFS AND LOWER ON ECMWF.
SO MAY OR MAY NOT SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MODELS SPLIT THE THE UPPER TROUGH INTO TWO LOBES ON FRIDAY. THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE LOBE RACING NEWRD AWAY FROM COLORADO AND OVER THE
DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH A SECOND POTENTIALLY STRONGEST
PIECE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. COULD SEE ANOTHER BAND OF MONSOON MOISTURE PASSING
OVER COLORADO ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HELP TO FUEL ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS ON THE PLAINS AND SCATTERED STORMS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. BY SATURDAY...THE SECOND TROUGH
LOBE SWINGS CLOSER TO COLORADO CAUSING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY. THIS SHIFT IN FLOW DEFLECTS THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
AWAY FROM COLORADO AND OVER THE SRN/CNTRL GREAT PLAINS. SO SATURDAY
LOOKS A BIT DRIER AND WARMER. BY SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE WESTERN
TROUGH AND ITS BATCH OF RELATIVELY COOL AND MOIST AIR MOVING OVER
THE STATE. ALSO SEE A COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH ACRS NERN COLORADO
SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER AND WETTER. SUNDAY
MAY ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF A STRETCH OF COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
WETTER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING A COUPLE WAVES OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DENVER AREA...ONE IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER THIS EVENING...WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFTS.
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...LIGHTER
WINDS AFTER THAT BUT STILL VARIABLE DIRECTIONS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED
STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD





000
FXUS65 KBOU 192150
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
350 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

DIURNAL CONVECTION TAKING OFF ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND WILL BE
SPREADING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. PLAINS INITIALLY CAPPED BUT
ONCE OUTFLOWS START TO MOVE EAST THEY WILL GENERATE SOME NEW
CONVECTION. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THIS MAY SKIP OVER THE DRIER AIR
IN THE DENVER AREA AND THEN CONSOLIDATE IN THE BETTER MOISTURE ON
THE PLAINS. ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHOWER BAND WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING IT SHOULD WEAKEN
COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LARGER SCALE MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THIS WILL NOT
SURVIVE COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW
SPRINKLES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE LIFT WILL BE EAST OF COLORADO WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...400-800 J/KG ON THE
PLAINS AND EVEN LESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED
STORMS ON THE PLAINS AND A FEW LATE DAY STORMS ON THE PLAINS...BUT
MORE LIMITED IN NUMBER AND WEAK. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD...A MILD NIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER THEN SIMILAR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING UP INTO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SEE SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LACK ONTO ANY ONE
PARTICULAR MODEL. OVERNIGHT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
SLOWLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NEWRD OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE AT ITS DEEPEST OVER
COLORADO ON THURSDAY...SECOND ONLY TO THAT OF TODAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL EAST OF THE MTNS
ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE PLAINS.
FOR THIS REASON...HAVE RAISED POPS ANOTHER 10 PCT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES HIGHER ON GFS AND LOWER ON ECMWF.
SO MAY OR MAY NOT SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MODELS SPLIT THE THE UPPER TROUGH INTO TWO LOBES ON FRIDAY. THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE LOBE RACING NEWRD AWAY FROM COLORADO AND OVER THE
DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH A SECOND POTENTIALLY STRONGEST
PIECE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. COULD SEE ANOTHER BAND OF MONSOON MOISTURE PASSING
OVER COLORADO ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HELP TO FUEL ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS ON THE PLAINS AND SCATTERED STORMS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. BY SATURDAY...THE SECOND TROUGH
LOBE SWINGS CLOSER TO COLORADO CAUSING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY. THIS SHIFT IN FLOW DEFLECTS THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
AWAY FROM COLORADO AND OVER THE SRN/CNTRL GREAT PLAINS. SO SATURDAY
LOOKS A BIT DRIER AND WARMER. BY SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE WESTERN
TROUGH AND ITS BATCH OF RELATIVELY COOL AND MOIST AIR MOVING OVER
THE STATE. ALSO SEE A COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH ACRS NERN COLORADO
SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER AND WETTER. SUNDAY
MAY ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF A STRETCH OF COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
WETTER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING A COUPLE WAVES OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DENVER AREA...ONE IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER THIS EVENING...WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFTS.
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...LIGHTER
WINDS AFTER THAT BUT STILL VARIABLE DIRECTIONS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED
STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 191755
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1155 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MINOR CHANGES FOR CONVECTIVE DETAILS. TWO SHORTWAVES APPARENTLY
ORGANIZING SHOWERS UPSTREAM...ONE WILL PASS OVER DENVER IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE OTHER WILL COME INTO WESTERN
COLORADO THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING IN
THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL RAISED POPS A LITTLE BIT AND
TRENDED THEM TOWARD THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES. STILL LOOKING
SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE IN THE AREA JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
WARMING ALOFT AND A LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
CAPES...AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE SO THERE WILL BE
SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GROUND BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE OF STORMS.
SO CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY COME
DOWNHILL...THEN FILL IN AGAIN AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
STILL A LITTLE SEVERE THREAT ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PLAINS
WHERE CAPES WILL BE MORE LIKE 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE LIKELY
LINEAR NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND BUT
STRONG PULSES COULD HAVE SOME HAIL. HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH OF THE
SECOND WAVE WILL MAKE IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...SOME OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST...MOST ARE DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

RADAR INDICATED STILL SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE VICINITY OF JET STREAK ACROSS NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY SUNRISE. ALSO SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND EXPECT SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO WESTERN CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE
RIDGE INTO NW COLORADO LATER TODAY. OVERALL...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
SHIFT MORE SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY INCREASE. INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM GPS
ALREADY REFLECTING THIS WITH VALUES UP A COUPLE OF TENTHS IN THE
PAST 18 HOURS. PW VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE EVEN MORE TO NEAR AN
INCH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE TO
COME IN THE WAY OF HIGHS CLOUDS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL DELAY SOME
OF THE HEATING AND REDUCE OVERALL INSTABILITY. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THIS MOISTURE WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO WAVE AND NOTED ASCENT. STORMS
WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY GOOD TODAY IN THE ORDER OF 10-15KT SO
OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT ON THE LOW SIDE DESPITE INCREASE
MOISTURE LEVELS.

WILL ALSO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE OVER LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FRONT RANGE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS GIVEN HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER FROM THIS AM AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD WITH
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A TROUGH
OVER SRN CA AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SERN U.S. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF
COLORADO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY IN THE MORNING...WITH A SLGT CHC SPILLING INTO THE NERN
PLAINS IN THE AFTN. PW VALUES STILL AROUND 0.9 INCHES BUT MINIMAL
CAPE OF 200-300 J/KG. ON THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
SWLY BUT A BIT MORE SUBSIDENT IN THE MID LEVELS AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN SLIGHTLY FM THE SE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FM SRN CA
INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY IF THE GFS IS CORRECT.
IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...THEN THE TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVER SRN CA.
IN GENERAL...WL GO WITH CHC POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH LESSER
POPS OVER THE NERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTN/EVNG. ON FRIDAY...MDLS
STILL DO NOT HAVE A CONSISTENT HANDLE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE SWRN U.S. THE GFS LIFTS THE TROUGH AXIS NORTH AND
EAST INTO CO WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH HUNG UP OVER SRN CA.
FOR NOW WL GO WITH PERSISTENCE...A CHANCE OVR THE MTNS WITH LESSER
POPS OVER THE NERN PLAINS. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO CHANGE MUCH AT
THIS POINT. THE WEEKEND COULD BE DRIER OR NOT...IT IS ALL
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ORIENTS ITSELF WHICH
WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE FLOW ALOFT. IF IT IS MORE WLY LIKE THE
GFS IT WILL BE DRIER...IF ITS MORE SLY LIKE THE ECMWF THEN THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR TODAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES OVER THE DENVER
AREA. EXPECT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WINDS TO DOMINATE TODAY...WITH
WINDS GOING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH MID AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THEN
POSSIBLY BACK TO SOUTHEAST OR EAST AS STORMS DEVELOP ON THE
PLAINS. A SECOND WIND SHIFT IS LIKELY SOMETIME THIS EVENING. GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS THIS EVENING WILL
BE LIGHTER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 191755
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1155 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MINOR CHANGES FOR CONVECTIVE DETAILS. TWO SHORTWAVES APPARENTLY
ORGANIZING SHOWERS UPSTREAM...ONE WILL PASS OVER DENVER IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE OTHER WILL COME INTO WESTERN
COLORADO THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING IN
THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL RAISED POPS A LITTLE BIT AND
TRENDED THEM TOWARD THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES. STILL LOOKING
SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE IN THE AREA JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
WARMING ALOFT AND A LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
CAPES...AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE SO THERE WILL BE
SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GROUND BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE OF STORMS.
SO CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY COME
DOWNHILL...THEN FILL IN AGAIN AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
STILL A LITTLE SEVERE THREAT ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PLAINS
WHERE CAPES WILL BE MORE LIKE 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE LIKELY
LINEAR NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND BUT
STRONG PULSES COULD HAVE SOME HAIL. HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH OF THE
SECOND WAVE WILL MAKE IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...SOME OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST...MOST ARE DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

RADAR INDICATED STILL SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE VICINITY OF JET STREAK ACROSS NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY SUNRISE. ALSO SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND EXPECT SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO WESTERN CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE
RIDGE INTO NW COLORADO LATER TODAY. OVERALL...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
SHIFT MORE SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY INCREASE. INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM GPS
ALREADY REFLECTING THIS WITH VALUES UP A COUPLE OF TENTHS IN THE
PAST 18 HOURS. PW VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE EVEN MORE TO NEAR AN
INCH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE TO
COME IN THE WAY OF HIGHS CLOUDS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL DELAY SOME
OF THE HEATING AND REDUCE OVERALL INSTABILITY. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THIS MOISTURE WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO WAVE AND NOTED ASCENT. STORMS
WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY GOOD TODAY IN THE ORDER OF 10-15KT SO
OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT ON THE LOW SIDE DESPITE INCREASE
MOISTURE LEVELS.

WILL ALSO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE OVER LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FRONT RANGE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS GIVEN HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER FROM THIS AM AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD WITH
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A TROUGH
OVER SRN CA AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SERN U.S. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF
COLORADO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY IN THE MORNING...WITH A SLGT CHC SPILLING INTO THE NERN
PLAINS IN THE AFTN. PW VALUES STILL AROUND 0.9 INCHES BUT MINIMAL
CAPE OF 200-300 J/KG. ON THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
SWLY BUT A BIT MORE SUBSIDENT IN THE MID LEVELS AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN SLIGHTLY FM THE SE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FM SRN CA
INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY IF THE GFS IS CORRECT.
IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...THEN THE TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVER SRN CA.
IN GENERAL...WL GO WITH CHC POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH LESSER
POPS OVER THE NERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTN/EVNG. ON FRIDAY...MDLS
STILL DO NOT HAVE A CONSISTENT HANDLE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE SWRN U.S. THE GFS LIFTS THE TROUGH AXIS NORTH AND
EAST INTO CO WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH HUNG UP OVER SRN CA.
FOR NOW WL GO WITH PERSISTENCE...A CHANCE OVR THE MTNS WITH LESSER
POPS OVER THE NERN PLAINS. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO CHANGE MUCH AT
THIS POINT. THE WEEKEND COULD BE DRIER OR NOT...IT IS ALL
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ORIENTS ITSELF WHICH
WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE FLOW ALOFT. IF IT IS MORE WLY LIKE THE
GFS IT WILL BE DRIER...IF ITS MORE SLY LIKE THE ECMWF THEN THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR TODAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES OVER THE DENVER
AREA. EXPECT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WINDS TO DOMINATE TODAY...WITH
WINDS GOING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH MID AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THEN
POSSIBLY BACK TO SOUTHEAST OR EAST AS STORMS DEVELOP ON THE
PLAINS. A SECOND WIND SHIFT IS LIKELY SOMETIME THIS EVENING. GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS THIS EVENING WILL
BE LIGHTER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD





000
FXUS65 KBOU 190943
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
343 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

RADAR INDICATED STILL SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE VICINITY OF JET STREAK ACROSS NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY SUNRISE. ALSO SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND EXPECT SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO WESTERN CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE
RIDGE INTO NW COLORADO LATER TODAY. OVERALL...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
SHIFT MORE SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY INCREASE. INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM GPS
ALREADY REFLECTING THIS WITH VALUES UP A COUPLE OF TENTHS IN THE
PAST 18 HOURS. PW VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE EVEN MORE TO NEAR AN
INCH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE TO
COME IN THE WAY OF HIGHS CLOUDS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL DELAY SOME
OF THE HEATING AND REDUCE OVERALL INSTABILITY. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THIS MOISTURE WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO WAVE AND NOTED ASCENT. STORMS
WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY GOOD TODAY IN THE ORDER OF 10-15KT SO
OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT ON THE LOW SIDE DESPITE INCREASE
MOISTURE LEVELS.

WILL ALSO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE OVER LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FRONT RANGE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS GIVEN HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER FROM THIS AM AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD WITH
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A TROUGH
OVER SRN CA AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SERN U.S. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF
COLORADO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY IN THE MORNING...WITH A SLGT CHC SPILLING INTO THE NERN
PLAINS IN THE AFTN. PW VALUES STILL AROUND 0.9 INCHES BUT MINIMAL
CAPE OF 200-300 J/KG. ON THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
SWLY BUT A BIT MORE SUBSIDENT IN THE MID LEVELS AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN SLIGHTLY FM THE SE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FM SRN CA
INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY IF THE GFS IS CORRECT.
IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...THEN THE TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVER SRN CA.
IN GENERAL...WL GO WITH CHC POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH LESSER
POPS OVER THE NERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTN/EVNG. ON FRIDAY...MDLS
STILL DO NOT HAVE A CONSISTENT HANDLE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE SWRN U.S. THE GFS LIFTS THE TROUGH AXIS NORTH AND
EAST INTO CO WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH HUNG UP OVER SRN CA.
FOR NOW WL GO WITH PERSISTENCE...A CHANCE OVR THE MTNS WITH LESSER
POPS OVER THE NERN PLAINS. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO CHANGE MUCH AT
THIS POINT. THE WEEKEND COULD BE DRIER OR NOT...IT IS ALL
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ORIENTS ITSELF WHICH
WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE FLOW ALOFT. IF IT IS MORE WLY LIKE THE
GFS IT WILL BE DRIER...IF ITS MORE SLY LIKE THE ECMWF THEN THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY AS
MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE ERRATIC AND GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS...UP TO 40KT POSSIBLE WITH INVERTED V TYPE
SOUNDINGS AND RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 190215
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
815 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DECREASING AND MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT
THE CONVECTION TO END BY 06Z...AND LIKELY AN HOUR OR TWO SOONER.
WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

BANDS OF CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM A JET
STREAK OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. BEST DEVELOPED AREA WILL SHIFT FROM
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA...BUT THE
EXPECTED CHEYENNE RIDGE CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP NOW AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. WE ALREADY HAD
THE NORTHEAST AREA FAVORED...ADDED A BIT TO THE POPS FOR THE
PALMER DIVIDE AREA. MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS HAS MIXED OUT A BIT...
BUT STILL ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH AND ABOUT 30 KNOTS
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE PRETTY
UPRIGHT...BUT STILL A SMALL THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WITH
THE STRONGEST PULSES OR IF A LINE GETS ORGANIZED ENOUGH.

MAIN AREA OF LIFT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDNIGHT...SOME
CLOUDS REMAINING BUT RELATIVELY QUIET. STRONGER LIFT AND BETTER
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE UP INTO WESTERN
COLORADO IN THE MORNING...THEN INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WE WILL HAVE SOME WARMING ALOFT ALONG WITH THE
MOISTENING...SO ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT RANGE AREAS IT
MAY NOT BE MUCH MORE UNSTABLE. STILL EXPECTING HIGHER COVERAGE OF
STORMS TUESDAY BUT NOT NECESSARILY MORE INTENSE. ON THE PLAINS
THERE WILL BE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MODELS HINTING AT CAPES
IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. PROBABLY CAPPED UNTIL LIFT OR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ARRIVE FROM THE WEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
STILL NOT A LOT OF SHEAR...BUT DEFINITELY SOME SEVERE THREAT ON
THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

CIRCULATION ABOUT THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL STREAM LOW AND
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD UP OVER UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MAY MAKE IT EAST OF
THE MTNS AND WITH S-SELY BNDRY LAYER FLOW ON THE PLAINS CYCLONE THIS
MOISTURE UP INTO THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE 4-
CORNERS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PASSING OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO DURING THE EVENING HOURS...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. MODELS SHOWING BEST CAPE...SHEAR AND
MOISTURE CONVERGING ON THE NERN CORNER OF THE FCST AREA. AT
00Z/WED...NAM INDICATES OVER 2500 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE IN THE
CORNER COUNTIES. WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF CAPE
AND SLIGHTLY LESS THETA-E...AND THE GFS EVEN LESS CAPE AND
MOISTURE AT THAT TIME. THESE LAST TWO MODELS SHOW THE MORE
FAVORABLE STORM BUILDING CONDITIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL STICK WITH SCATTERED POPS IN THE MTNS AND
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...AND ISOLATED POPS ALONG
THE BASE OF THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THEN
QUICKLY LOWER POPS REST OF THE NIGHT WITH DRIER POST-TROUGH AIR
MIXING DOWN OUT OF THE MTNS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH AND GREAT PLAINS RIDGE
CONTINUE THEIR SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION CAUSING THE MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME TO ALSO SHIFT EAST PLACING SQUARELY OVER COLORADO. HOWEVER...
MODELS INDICATE DRYING WITHIN THE PLUME...PARTICULARLY BELOW 500 MBS
WITH THE 0-5KM FLOW VEERING FROM SOUTHERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL REMAIN HIGH...
GENERALLY IN THE 0.75-0.90 RANGE ON THE PLAINS. SO WITH HEATING AND
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS BUT WITH
LESS COVERAGE...ESPLY EAST OF THE MTNS. SHOULD SEE AN END TO THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH THE PLUME HANGING OVER THE
AREA.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST IS PROGGED TO
PASS OVER COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS SHOWS A DEEPER...
WETTER AND A FASTER MOVING TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF A SLOWER...LESS
WET AND LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH. THE CANADIAN GEM IS IN BETWEEN THE
TWO. WILL GO WITH A BLEND HERE AND HANG ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ON THE PLAINS AND SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

OVER THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH WILL FORM OVER AND NORTH OF THE WRN U.S./WRN CANADIAN
BORDER EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. FROM THERE THE GFS DIGS THE TROUGH AND
A GOOD BATCH OF ABNORMALLY COOL CANADIAN AIR SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. WHEREAS THE ECMWF DOES NOT
SHOW A TROUGH AS AMPLIFIED AND MUCH OF THIS COOL AIR SLUFFING OFF
TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. BASED ON THE GFS...COULD SEE A BIG JUMP IN
CLOUD COVER AND STORMS OVER NERN COLORADO LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE ECMWF...NOT SO MUCH. ONCE AGAIN WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO
MODELS AND COME UP WITH THE FCST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

WINDS HAVE TURNED EASTERLY DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AND END UP
SOUTHERLY AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE AT NORMAL DRAINAGE DIRECTION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME EASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 190215
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
815 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DECREASING AND MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT
THE CONVECTION TO END BY 06Z...AND LIKELY AN HOUR OR TWO SOONER.
WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

BANDS OF CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM A JET
STREAK OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. BEST DEVELOPED AREA WILL SHIFT FROM
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA...BUT THE
EXPECTED CHEYENNE RIDGE CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP NOW AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. WE ALREADY HAD
THE NORTHEAST AREA FAVORED...ADDED A BIT TO THE POPS FOR THE
PALMER DIVIDE AREA. MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS HAS MIXED OUT A BIT...
BUT STILL ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH AND ABOUT 30 KNOTS
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE PRETTY
UPRIGHT...BUT STILL A SMALL THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WITH
THE STRONGEST PULSES OR IF A LINE GETS ORGANIZED ENOUGH.

MAIN AREA OF LIFT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDNIGHT...SOME
CLOUDS REMAINING BUT RELATIVELY QUIET. STRONGER LIFT AND BETTER
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE UP INTO WESTERN
COLORADO IN THE MORNING...THEN INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WE WILL HAVE SOME WARMING ALOFT ALONG WITH THE
MOISTENING...SO ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT RANGE AREAS IT
MAY NOT BE MUCH MORE UNSTABLE. STILL EXPECTING HIGHER COVERAGE OF
STORMS TUESDAY BUT NOT NECESSARILY MORE INTENSE. ON THE PLAINS
THERE WILL BE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MODELS HINTING AT CAPES
IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. PROBABLY CAPPED UNTIL LIFT OR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ARRIVE FROM THE WEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
STILL NOT A LOT OF SHEAR...BUT DEFINITELY SOME SEVERE THREAT ON
THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

CIRCULATION ABOUT THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL STREAM LOW AND
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD UP OVER UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MAY MAKE IT EAST OF
THE MTNS AND WITH S-SELY BNDRY LAYER FLOW ON THE PLAINS CYCLONE THIS
MOISTURE UP INTO THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE 4-
CORNERS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PASSING OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO DURING THE EVENING HOURS...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. MODELS SHOWING BEST CAPE...SHEAR AND
MOISTURE CONVERGING ON THE NERN CORNER OF THE FCST AREA. AT
00Z/WED...NAM INDICATES OVER 2500 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE IN THE
CORNER COUNTIES. WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF CAPE
AND SLIGHTLY LESS THETA-E...AND THE GFS EVEN LESS CAPE AND
MOISTURE AT THAT TIME. THESE LAST TWO MODELS SHOW THE MORE
FAVORABLE STORM BUILDING CONDITIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL STICK WITH SCATTERED POPS IN THE MTNS AND
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...AND ISOLATED POPS ALONG
THE BASE OF THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THEN
QUICKLY LOWER POPS REST OF THE NIGHT WITH DRIER POST-TROUGH AIR
MIXING DOWN OUT OF THE MTNS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH AND GREAT PLAINS RIDGE
CONTINUE THEIR SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION CAUSING THE MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME TO ALSO SHIFT EAST PLACING SQUARELY OVER COLORADO. HOWEVER...
MODELS INDICATE DRYING WITHIN THE PLUME...PARTICULARLY BELOW 500 MBS
WITH THE 0-5KM FLOW VEERING FROM SOUTHERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL REMAIN HIGH...
GENERALLY IN THE 0.75-0.90 RANGE ON THE PLAINS. SO WITH HEATING AND
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS BUT WITH
LESS COVERAGE...ESPLY EAST OF THE MTNS. SHOULD SEE AN END TO THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH THE PLUME HANGING OVER THE
AREA.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST IS PROGGED TO
PASS OVER COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS SHOWS A DEEPER...
WETTER AND A FASTER MOVING TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF A SLOWER...LESS
WET AND LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH. THE CANADIAN GEM IS IN BETWEEN THE
TWO. WILL GO WITH A BLEND HERE AND HANG ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ON THE PLAINS AND SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

OVER THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH WILL FORM OVER AND NORTH OF THE WRN U.S./WRN CANADIAN
BORDER EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. FROM THERE THE GFS DIGS THE TROUGH AND
A GOOD BATCH OF ABNORMALLY COOL CANADIAN AIR SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. WHEREAS THE ECMWF DOES NOT
SHOW A TROUGH AS AMPLIFIED AND MUCH OF THIS COOL AIR SLUFFING OFF
TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. BASED ON THE GFS...COULD SEE A BIG JUMP IN
CLOUD COVER AND STORMS OVER NERN COLORADO LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE ECMWF...NOT SO MUCH. ONCE AGAIN WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO
MODELS AND COME UP WITH THE FCST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

WINDS HAVE TURNED EASTERLY DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AND END UP
SOUTHERLY AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE AT NORMAL DRAINAGE DIRECTION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME EASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER




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