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000
FXUS65 KBOU 250953
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
353 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER COLORADO TODAY WITH A DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS. SHOULD BE A CLOUDLESS DAYTIME WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IS
AGAIN 80 DEGREES AT DENVER AND READINGS TODAY WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND THAT 80 DEGREE MARK.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE RIDGE EAST OF COLORADO TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS OVER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS
CROSS BARRIER FLOW INCREASING TO 40KT AND MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCAL GUSTS IN THE
50-60 MPH IN WIND PRONE AREAS LATER TONIGHT. MAIN CHANGE TO
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE WINDS A LITTLE LATER TONIGHT. SOME
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER TNT IN THE MOUNTAINS
BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS UNTIL SUNDAY DAYTIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SUNDAY MORNING WILL START OUT QUITE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
ABOUT 50 KTS OF CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW AROUND 650 MB WITH A MINIMUM
OF 15 KT AROUND 450 MB. NOT THE BEST MOUNTAIN WAVE/DOWNSLOPING
WIND PATTERN BUT STILL QUITE GOOD. WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS IN THE 40 TO
50 MPH IN THE UPPER FOOTHILLS IN THE NORMAL WINDY SPOTS WITH SOME
GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PUSHING INTO THE STATE
DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ALONG THE CO/KS STATE
LINE. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHED IN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AND SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN A COOLER DAY COMPARED
TO TODAY. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL SEE THIS EFFECT FIRST AND WILL
HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER. THIS WILL HELP HUMIDITY
NOT BOTTOM OUT TOO MUCH WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...SO RIGHT NOW NO
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NEEDED AS HUMIDITY READINGS LOOK TO STAY IN THE 20
PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY PRETTY GUSTY AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGINS NEARING. MOISTURE...WHICH SEEMS
MEAGER WITH BETTER AMOUNTS FOUND FURTHER NORTH...IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND
10 THOUSAND FEET OR HIGHER. A BETTER PUSH LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE
EVENING WHERE SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP TO NEAR 8000 FEET...EXCEPT OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY MAY BE CLOSER TO 6000.

THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS AS
THIS OCCURS. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING WHILE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OCCUR. LOOKING AT CROSS
SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS...AIRMASS SEEMS QUITE DRY. LOWERED POPS
SLIGHTLY...BUT KEPT A CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES
COOLER MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA.
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND IT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY CAUSE SLIGHT COOLING BEFORE ADDITIONAL WARMTH
MOVES IN FRIDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL OF TODAY. SURFACE WINDS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...STARTING SOUTHERLY AND THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10KT. MAY SEE
A BIT STRONGER WEST WIND SURFACING AT BJC LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 250222
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
822 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUD FREE OVERNIGHT WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SO
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS DOWN IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT A LITTLE
WARMER IN AREAS THAT SEE LIGHT DRAINAGE. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
FULL SUNSHINE AND RECORD/NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STILL DOMINATES NE COLORADO WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE NE BRINGING INCREASED WINDS TO THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE
PLAINS WITH LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY IN STORE FOR TOMORROW. LIKE TODAY
700 MB TEMPS ARE IN THE +10 TO +11 RANGE WHICH EQUATES TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 80 TO 82 DEGREES. THIS WOULD MEAN ANOTHER POSSIBLE
RECORD BREAKING DAY WITH THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR
TOMORROW AT 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING THIS TIME AROUND...AS MODELS
CONTINUE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH RACING ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE NAM MODEL
SHOWS ABOUT 20-25 KNOTS OF WIND AT 700 MB...SO THIS MAY MAKE THE
AFTERNOON A BREEZY ONE...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WARM AGAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT
PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LEVELS REACHED ON
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...SOME AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY BEGIN PICKING
UP SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD OUT ONTO THE PLAINS.
RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SNOW LEVEL REMAINING ABOVE 8000 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT ON THE PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE VERY QUICKLY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
COULD BE OVER BEFORE THE COLD AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE STATE.
THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY WILL BE COOL AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO
THE STATE. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING COULD BE DOWN AROUND THE FREEZING
LEVEL ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR OUT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE LAST WEEK
OF OCTOBER. STRONG UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RE-BUILD ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 821 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WINDS ARE EVENTUALLY SWITCHING TO NORMAL DRAINAGE BUT HAVE BEEN
DELAYED A BIT BY VERY WEAK DENVER CYCLONE. ON SATURDAY...NORMAL
TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING TO LIGHT EASTERLY BY
19Z-20Z EXPECTED AGAIN. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUD FREE IN VERY DRY
AIRMASS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS65 KBOU 242133
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
333 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STILL DOMINATES NE COLORADO WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE NE BRINGING INCREASED WINDS TO THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE
PLAINS WITH LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY IN STORE FOR TOMORROW. LIKE TODAY
700 MB TEMPS ARE IN THE +10 TO +11 RANGE WHICH EQUATES TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 80 TO 82 DEGREES. THIS WOULD MEAN ANOTHER POSSIBLE
RECORD BREAKING DAY WITH THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR
TOMORROW AT 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING THIS TIME AROUND...AS MODELS
CONTINUE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH RACING ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE NAM MODEL
SHOWS ABOUT 20-25 KNOTS OF WIND AT 700 MB...SO THIS MAY MAKE THE
AFTERNOON A BREEZY ONE...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WARM AGAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT
PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LEVELS REACHED ON
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...SOME AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY BEGIN PICKING
UP SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD OUT ONTO THE PLAINS.
RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SNOW LEVEL REMAINING ABOVE 8000 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT ON THE PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE VERY QUICKLY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
COULD BE OVER BEFORE THE COLD AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE STATE.
THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY WILL BE COOL AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO
THE STATE. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING COULD BE DOWN AROUND THE FREEZING
LEVEL ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR OUT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE LAST WEEK
OF OCTOBER. STRONG UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RE-BUILD ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT BY THIS
AFTERNOON MOVING TO CLEAR SKIES BY 06Z. WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO DIURNAL BY 06Z WITH VARIABLE WINDS RETURNING
BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 241549
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
949 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WAVE CLOUD THAT SET UP OVERNIGHT IS STARTING TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AND IS FORECASTED TO SCATTER OUT BY NOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY THEN CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH WINDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. STILL ANTICIPATING
TO MEET AND POSSIBLY BREAK THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF
80 DEGREES IN DENVER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

QUITE A BIT OF WAVE CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND ADJACENT PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH HAS KEPT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD WITH READINGS STILL IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
AT THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS. GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE A BACK EDGE OF THE MOISTURE OVER
CENTRAL UTAH AND THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE CLOUDINESS LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING WAVE CLOUD
DISSIPATION BY 18Z.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER COLORADO
WITH CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES. 700MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE
AT LEAST TO +10 TO +12C WHICH WILL GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER 80S OVER THE PLAINS. RECORD TEMPERATURE FOR DENVER TODAY IS
80 DEGREES...SO LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT BREAK A RECORD. THIS IS STILL
COOLER THAN LATEST MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING 2-5
DEGREES TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

IN FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY SATURDAY. 586 DECAMETER
HEIGHTS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY. THE RESIDENT AIRMASS
ALSO QUITE DRY AND STABLE WITH THE PASSING UPPER RIDGE. BY
AFTERNOON 700 MB TEMP UP AROUND 12C AND WITH THE DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD AGAIN SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE 80-85 DEG RANGE
ON THE PLAINS WITH THE WARMER READINGS UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS
THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING/SWLY WINDS. MAY SEE MORE RECORDS BROKEN.
RECORD HIGH AT DENVER FOR THE DATE IS 80F.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE
PLACING THE REGION UNDER STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTABATION BEING CARRIED ALONG BY THIS
FLOW. PRES FALLS ON THE PLAINS LEADING TO A TIGHT CROSS MTN PRES
GRAD WILL TEAM UP WITH THIS HEIGHT FALL ANOMALY AND THE FORMATION
OF A LEE SLOPE MTN WAVE TO PRODUCE GUSTY W-SWLY WINDS ON THE MTN
RIDGES AND EAST ASPECT OF THE FRONT RANGE LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. COULD SEE PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE IN
THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START QUITE MILD ON SUNDAY
ESPLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DUE TO THESE CHINOOK WINDS. HOWEVER
THROUGH THE DAY 700-500MB TEMPS BEGIN TO CREEP DOWNWARD IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACRS THE GREAT BASIN. 00Z AND 06Z MODEL
RUNS SHOW THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH
TRACKING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. STILL PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD END UP PRODUCING
SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVEL EXPECTED TO
START OUT AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN LOWER TO
AROUND 8 THOUSAND FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF SHOWERS STILL AROUND
MONDAY EVENING...COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS. SNOW TOTALS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY DURING
THE 36-HOUR PERIOD ENDING 00Z/TUE GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
WITH UPWARDS OF 5 INCHES ABOVE TIMBERLINE. WHILE RAIN AMOUNTS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WILL FALL BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK. GOOD BET THIS WILL END THIS YEAR/S LONG GROWING SEASON. TIME
TO THINK ABOUT BLOWING OUT OUTDOOR SPRINKLER SYSTEMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE
TROUGH RACING EAST AND WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WARMING REST OF THE WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW KEEP MID-LEVELS COOL. ONE OF THESE
RIPPLES MAY BRING A BIT OF SNOW TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NRN MTNS
ON WEDNESDAY. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 941 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH LEVEL
BROKEN DECK SCATTERING OUT BY 17Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW FOR
THE MORNING THEN WILL GO VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
RETURNING TO DRAINAGE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 241025 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
411 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...ADDITION TO 4TH PARAGRAPH...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

QUITE A BIT OF WAVE CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND ADJACENT PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH HAS KEPT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD WITH READINGS STILL IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
AT THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS. GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE A BACK EDGE OF THE MOISTURE OVER
CENTRAL UTAH AND THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE CLOUDINESS LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING WAVE CLOUD
DISSIPATION BY 18Z.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER COLORADO
WITH CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES. 700MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE
AT LEAST TO +10 TO +12C WHICH WILL GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER 80S OVER THE PLAINS. RECORD TEMPERATURE FOR DENVER TODAY IS
80 DEGREES...SO LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT BREAK A RECORD. THIS IS STILL
COOLER THAN LATEST MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING 2-5
DEGREES TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

IN FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY SATURDAY. 586 DECAMETER
HEIGHTS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY. THE RESIDENT AIRMASS
ALSO QUITE DRY AND STABLE WITH THE PASSING UPPER RIDGE. BY
AFTERNOON 700 MB TEMP UP AROUND 12C AND WITH THE DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD AGAIN SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE 80-85 DEG RANGE
ON THE PLAINS WITH THE WARMER READINGS UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS
THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING/SWLY WINDS. MAY SEE MORE RECORDS BROKEN.
RECORD HIGH AT DENVER FOR THE DATE IS 80F.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE
PLACING THE REGION UNDER STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTABATION BEING CARRIED ALONG BY THIS
FLOW. PRES FALLS ON THE PLAINS LEADING TO A TIGHT CROSS MTN PRES
GRAD WILL TEAM UP WITH THIS HEIGHT FALL ANOMALY AND THE FORMATION
OF A LEE SLOPE MTN WAVE TO PRODUCE GUSTY W-SWLY WINDS ON THE MTN
RIDGES AND EAST ASPECT OF THE FRONT RANGE LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. COULD SEE PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE IN
THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START QUITE MILD ON SUNDAY
ESPLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DUE TO THESE CHINOOK WINDS. HOWEVER
THROUGH THE DAY 700-500MB TEMPS BEGIN TO CREEP DOWNWARD IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACRS THE GREAT BASIN. 00Z AND 06Z MODEL
RUNS SHOW THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH
TRACKING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. STILL PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD END UP PRODUCING
SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVEL EXPECTED TO
START OUT AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN LOWER TO
AROUND 8 THOUSAND FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF SHOWERS STILL AROUND
MONDAY EVENING...COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS. SNOW TOTALS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY DURING
THE 36-HOUR PERIOD ENDING 00Z/TUE GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
WITH UPWARDS OF 5 INCHES ABOVE TIMBERLINE. WHILE RAIN AMOUNTS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WILL FALL BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK. GOOD BET THIS WILL END THIS YEAR/S LONG GROWING SEASON. TIME
TO THINK ABOUT BLOWING OUT OUTDOOR SPRINKLER SYSTEMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE
TROUGH RACING EAST AND WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WARMING REST OF THE WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW KEEP MID-LEVELS COOL. ONE OF THESE
RIPPLES MAY BRING A BIT OF SNOW TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NRN MTNS
ON WEDNESDAY. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WAVE CLOUD WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 16Z-18Z OVER LOCAL TERMINALS.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO CONTINUE AT BJC UNTIL 16Z BEFORE WAVE
BREAKS DOWN. WEAKER WINDS AT APA/DEN WITH TYPICAL DRAINAGE FROM
THE SOUTH. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHEAST
AND EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 241011
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
411 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

QUITE A BIT OF WAVE CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND ADJACENT PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH HAS KEPT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD WITH READINGS STILL IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
AT THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS. GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE A BACK EDGE OF THE MOISTURE OVER
CENTRAL UTAH AND THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE CLOUDINESS LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING WAVE CLOUD
DISSIPATION BY 18Z.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER COLORADO
WITH CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES. 700MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE
AT LEAST TO +10 TO +12C WHICH WILL GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER 80S OVER THE PLAINS. RECORD TEMPERATURE FOR DENVER TODAY IS
80 DEGREES...SO LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT BREAK A RECORD. THIS IS STILL
COOLER THAN LATEST MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING 2-5
DEGREES TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

IN FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY SATURDAY. 586 DECAMETER
HEIGHTS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY. THE RESIDENT AIRMASS
ALSO QUITE DRY AND STABLE WITH THE PASSING UPPER RIDGE. BY
AFTERNOON 700 MB TEMP UP AROUND 12C AND WITH THE DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD AGAIN SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE 80-85 DEG RANGE
ON THE PLAINS WITH THE WARMER READINGS UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS
THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING/SWLY WINDS. MAY SEE MORE RECORDS BROKEN.
RECORD HIGH AT DENVER FOR THE DATE IS 80F.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE
PLACING THE REGION UNDER STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTABATION BEING CARRIED ALONG BY THIS
FLOW. PRES FALLS ON THE PLAINS LEADING TO A TIGHT CROSS MTN PRES
GRAD WILL TEAM UP WITH THIS HEIGHT FALL ANOMALY AND THE FORMATION
OF A LEE SLOPE MTN WAVE TO PRODUCE GUSTY W-SWLY WINDS ON THE MTN
RIDGES AND EAST ASPECT OF THE FRONT RANGE LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. COULD SEE PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE IN
THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START QUITE MILD ON SUNDAY
ESPLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DUE TO THESE CHINOOK WINDS. HOWEVER
THROUGH THE DAY 700-500MB TEMPS BEGIN TO CREEP DOWNWARD IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACRS THE GREAT BASIN. 00Z AND 06Z MODEL
RUNS SHOW THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH
TRACKING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. STILL PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD END UP PRODUCING
SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVEL EXPECTED TO
START OUT AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN LOWER TO
AROUND 8 THOUSAND FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF SHOWERS STILL AROUND
MONDAY EVENING... COULD SEE A SMATTERING OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS...HOWEVER NO DISCERNIBLE
ACCUMULATION. SNOW TOTALS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY DURING THE 36-HOUR
PERIOD ENDING 00Z/TUE GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE WITH 4-5
INCH ACCUMS ABOVE TIMBERLINE. WHILE RAIN AMOUNTS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE
TROUGH RACING EAST AND WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WARMING REST OF THE WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW KEEP MID-LEVELS COOL. ONE OF THESE
RIPPLES MAY BRING A BIT OF SNOW TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NRN MTNS
ON WEDNESDAY. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WAVE CLOUD WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 16Z-18Z OVER LOCAL TERMINALS.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO CONTINUE AT BJC UNTIL 16Z BEFORE WAVE
BREAKS DOWN. WEAKER WINDS AT APA/DEN WITH TYPICAL DRAINAGE FROM
THE SOUTH. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHEAST
AND EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 240246
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
846 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WARM ADVECTION...AND SOME
MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD
OVERNIGHT IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...SO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES THERE. RECORD BREAKING
WARMTH STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
CONTINUES TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. NW FLOW
WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE WESTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS A WAVE CLOUD WILL SETUP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE THE STRONG WESTERLIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL
MIX DOWN THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP
TO 25 MPH ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS. THE STRONG THERMAL PROFILE
DOES NOT EXTEND PAST THE FOOTHILLS SO THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN
LIGHTER.

STILL LOOKING LIKE MANY LOCATIONS TOMORROW COULD SEE RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. THE CURRENT RECORD FOR
DENVER STANDS AT 80 DEGREES AND WE COULD SURPASS THAT BY A FEW
DEGREES...GIVEN THE WAVE CLOUD DOES NOT STAY IN PLACE TOO FAR
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANOTHER SUMMER LIKE FALL DAY FOR
DENVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES TO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COULD BE 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN
RECORD TERRITORY FOR DENVER. ON SUNDAY...WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE...EVEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND BEGINS INCREASING. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH.

EACH OF THE MID-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING AN
OPEN TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AREA
OF PRECIPITATION THAT SPREADS FROM THE MOUNTAINS OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE. THROUGH
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM. MOST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
COOLING...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE PLAINS AS THE LAST OF THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. BEYOND
TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RE-DEVELOPS AND
COLORADO SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 837 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS 12-14K FT AND SCT-BKN NEAR 20K FT
AGL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS65 KBOU 240246
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
846 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WARM ADVECTION...AND SOME
MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD
OVERNIGHT IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...SO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES THERE. RECORD BREAKING
WARMTH STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
CONTINUES TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. NW FLOW
WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE WESTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS A WAVE CLOUD WILL SETUP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE THE STRONG WESTERLIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL
MIX DOWN THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP
TO 25 MPH ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS. THE STRONG THERMAL PROFILE
DOES NOT EXTEND PAST THE FOOTHILLS SO THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN
LIGHTER.

STILL LOOKING LIKE MANY LOCATIONS TOMORROW COULD SEE RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. THE CURRENT RECORD FOR
DENVER STANDS AT 80 DEGREES AND WE COULD SURPASS THAT BY A FEW
DEGREES...GIVEN THE WAVE CLOUD DOES NOT STAY IN PLACE TOO FAR
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANOTHER SUMMER LIKE FALL DAY FOR
DENVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES TO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COULD BE 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN
RECORD TERRITORY FOR DENVER. ON SUNDAY...WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE...EVEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND BEGINS INCREASING. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH.

EACH OF THE MID-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING AN
OPEN TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AREA
OF PRECIPITATION THAT SPREADS FROM THE MOUNTAINS OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE. THROUGH
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM. MOST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
COOLING...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE PLAINS AS THE LAST OF THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. BEYOND
TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RE-DEVELOPS AND
COLORADO SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 837 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS 12-14K FT AND SCT-BKN NEAR 20K FT
AGL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS65 KBOU 232106
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
306 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
CONTINUES TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. NW FLOW
WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE WESTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS A WAVE CLOUD WILL SETUP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE THE STRONG WESTERLIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL
MIX DOWN THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP
TO 25 MPH ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS. THE STRONG THERMAL PROFILE
DOES NOT EXTEND PAST THE FOOTHILLS SO THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN
LIGHTER.

STILL LOOKING LIKE MANY LOCATIONS TOMORROW COULD SEE RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. THE CURRENT RECORD FOR
DENVER STANDS AT 80 DEGREES AND WE COULD SURPASS THAT BY A FEW
DEGREES...GIVEN THE WAVE CLOUD DOES NOT STAY IN PLACE TOO FAR
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANOTHER SUMMER LIKE FALL DAY FOR
DENVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES TO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COULD BE 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN
RECORD TERRITORY FOR DENVER. ON SUNDAY...WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE...EVEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND BEGINS INCREASING. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH.

EACH OF THE MID-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING AN
OPEN TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AREA
OF PRECIPITATION THAT SPREADS FROM THE MOUNTAINS OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE. THROUGH
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM. MOST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
COOLING...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE PLAINS AS THE LAST OF THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. BEYOND
TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RE-DEVELOPS AND
COLORADO SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A MOUNTAIN WAVE
HAS SET UP THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
WINDS TO THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS. INCREASED WINDS AT DIA WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DRAINAGE WINDS RETURNING THIS
EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 231611
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1011 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

A STRATUS DECK HAS MOVED IN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE RIDGE DUE TO THE
FORMATION OF A LEE TROUGH. WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH OVER
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LINGERING FOG IN THE VALLEYS.
ADJUSTED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE FORMATION
OF A WAVE CLOUD INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A CONTINUED WARM AND DRY DAY TODAY FOR NE
COLORADO WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING CLOSE TO 80 IN DENVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

WARM AND DRY IS IN STORE FOR THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THU AND FRI ACCOMPANIED BY SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME CIRRUS WAVE CLOUDS
BUT NO PRECIPITATION. LEE TROFING AT THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW SOME OF
THE MID LEVEL WESTERLIES TO MIX DOWN INTO THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS
LATE THU FOR SOME MODERATE GUSTS EXCEEDING 20KT... BUT THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT FAVOR MIXING OF THE
WESTERLIES INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

DEEPENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST CREATED A
RECIPROCATING LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY
MTN WEST BY FRIDAY. BENEATH THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECT ANOMOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
STORM TRACK/JET STREAM RESIDING UP NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.
IT APPEARS HIGH TEMPS AT MANY LOCALES ON FRIDAY...THE 25TH COULD
EASILY MATCH IF NOT EXCEED RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE. RECORD HIGH
AT DENVER ON THE 25TH IS 80. MAY SURPASS THAT BE A FEW DEGREES
F...ASSUMING THE MORNING MTN WAVE CLOUD DOESN/T HANG AROUND TOO
LONG. ALSO COMPARE THAT TO A NORMAL HIGH OF 62F. IT/S GOING TO
FEEL LIKE LATE SUMMER AROUND HERE. IF THAT/S NOT ENOUGH...MIN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS MAY ALSO COME VERY CLOSE
TO RECORD HIGH MINS FOR THE DATE.

ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO FALL AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR HIGHS AT MANY LOCATIONS TO EQUAL OR EXCEED THE
RECORD HIGH FOR THE 26TH. RECORD AT DENVER IS 80. MAY BEAT THAT BY
A DEG OR TWO. AS THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS...SFC WINDS
MAINLY ON THE PLAINS REMAIN LIGHT WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA. PRECIP STILL WELL NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT RANGE AT
THAT TIME.

SUNDAY STARTS OUT BALMY...ESLY IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WITH GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE/DOWN VALLEY WINDS. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 KTS IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AT 12Z. DURING THE DAY...THE
UPPER RIDGE COMES ITS EASTWARD MIGRATION AS A CHILLY AND WET UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. ACCORDING TO
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.
EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WARM AND GUSTY
SWLY SFC WINDS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ABNORMALLY WARM DAY WITH
HIGHS NEARING THE RECORD AGAIN AT MANY LOCATIONS SUCH AS DENVER.
HOWEVER DO NOT SEE THE RECORD HIGH OF 83F AT DENVER IN DANGER ON
SUNDAY. BY AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERN MTNS COULD BEGIN TO FEEL THE
IMPACT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL
WITH THE FIRST OF TWO STAND-UP FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING ACRS THE
HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT WILL
LIKELY CHANGE ANY RAIN TO SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET OR
SO.

ON MONDAY...A SECOND PUSH OF EVEN COOLER AIR SWEEPS IN WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH. MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH ACRS THE
NERN PLAINS OF COLORADO EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB MUCH ABOVE MID-MORNING READINGS. ALSO SEE PRECIP CHANCES
RISING WITH WEAK TO MODERATE QG ASCENT AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
LAPSE RATES. BY LATE IN THE DAY...COULD SEE ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE
FLOW STRENGTHENING ALONG THE SRN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER
DIVIDE GIVING THIS AREA A SECOND SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIP...
ALBEIT LIGHT. AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...PRECIP WILL BE SNOW ABOVE
8500-9000FT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AND BELOW THAT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH MOVES EAST BUT THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARM UP DURING THIS PERIOD WITH JUST A LIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THE NRN MTNS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 958 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS BEING VARIABLE FOR MOST OF
THE MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF A LEE TROUGH. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT WITH DRAINAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...KELSCH/MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 230957
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
357 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

WARM AND DRY IS IN STORE FOR THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THU AND FRI ACCOMPANIED BY SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME CIRRUS WAVE CLOUDS
BUT NO PRECIPITATION. LEE TROFING AT THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW SOME OF
THE MID LEVEL WESTERLIES TO MIX DOWN INTO THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS
LATE THU FOR SOME MODERATE GUSTS EXCEEDING 20KT... BUT THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT FAVOR MIXING OF THE
WESTERLIES INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

DEEPENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST CREATED A
RECIPROCATING LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY
MTN WEST BY FRIDAY. BENEATH THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECT ANOMOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
STORM TRACK/JET STREAM RESIDING UP NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.
IT APPEARS HIGH TEMPS AT MANY LOCALES ON FRIDAY...THE 25TH COULD
EASILY MATCH IF NOT EXCEED RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE. RECORD HIGH
AT DENVER ON THE 25TH IS 80. MAY SURPASS THAT BE A FEW DEGREES
F...ASSUMING THE MORNING MTN WAVE CLOUD DOESN/T HANG AROUND TOO
LONG. ALSO COMPARE THAT TO A NORMAL HIGH OF 62F. IT/S GOING TO
FEEL LIKE LATE SUMMER AROUND HERE. IF THAT/S NOT ENOUGH...MIN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS MAY ALSO COME VERY CLOSE
TO RECORD HIGH MINS FOR THE DATE.

ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO FALL AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR HIGHS AT MANY LOCATIONS TO EQUAL OR EXCEED THE
RECORD HIGH FOR THE 26TH. RECORD AT DENVER IS 80. MAY BEAT THAT BY
A DEG OR TWO. AS THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS...SFC WINDS
MAINLY ON THE PLAINS REMAIN LIGHT WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA. PRECIP STILL WELL NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT RANGE AT
THAT TIME.

SUNDAY STARTS OUT BALMY...ESLY IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WITH GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE/DOWN VALLEY WINDS. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 KTS IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AT 12Z. DURING THE DAY...THE
UPPER RIDGE COMES ITS EASTWARD MIGRATION AS A CHILLY AND WET UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. ACCORDING TO
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.
EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WARM AND GUSTY
SWLY SFC WINDS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ABNORMALLY WARM DAY WITH
HIGHS NEARING THE RECORD AGAIN AT MANY LOCATIONS SUCH AS DENVER.
HOWEVER DO NOT SEE THE RECORD HIGH OF 83F AT DENVER IN DANGER ON
SUNDAY. BY AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERN MTNS COULD BEGIN TO FEEL THE
IMPACT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL
WITH THE FIRST OF TWO STAND-UP FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING ACRS THE
HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT WILL
LIKELY CHANGE ANY RAIN TO SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET OR
SO.

ON MONDAY...A SECOND PUSH OF EVEN COOLER AIR SWEEPS IN WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH. MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH ACRS THE
NERN PLAINS OF COLORADO EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB MUCH ABOVE MID-MORNING READINGS. ALSO SEE PRECIP CHANCES
RISING WITH WEAK TO MODERATE QG ASCENT AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
LAPSE RATES. BY LATE IN THE DAY...COULD SEE ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE
FLOW STRENGTHENING ALONG THE SRN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER
DIVIDE GIVING THIS AREA A SECOND SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIP...
ALBEIT LIGHT. AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...PRECIP WILL BE SNOW ABOVE
8500-9000FT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AND BELOW THAT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH MOVES EAST BUT THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARM UP DURING THIS PERIOD WITH JUST A LIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THE NRN MTNS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY WEATHER WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD VISIBILITY IS
LIKELY INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME MODERATE
WESTERLIES TO OCCUR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS LATE BY LATE
THURSDAY... BUT THOSE ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE FOOTHILLS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELSCH/MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...KELSCH/MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 230957
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
357 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

WARM AND DRY IS IN STORE FOR THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THU AND FRI ACCOMPANIED BY SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME CIRRUS WAVE CLOUDS
BUT NO PRECIPITATION. LEE TROFING AT THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW SOME OF
THE MID LEVEL WESTERLIES TO MIX DOWN INTO THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS
LATE THU FOR SOME MODERATE GUSTS EXCEEDING 20KT... BUT THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT FAVOR MIXING OF THE
WESTERLIES INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

DEEPENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST CREATED A
RECIPROCATING LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY
MTN WEST BY FRIDAY. BENEATH THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECT ANOMOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
STORM TRACK/JET STREAM RESIDING UP NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.
IT APPEARS HIGH TEMPS AT MANY LOCALES ON FRIDAY...THE 25TH COULD
EASILY MATCH IF NOT EXCEED RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE. RECORD HIGH
AT DENVER ON THE 25TH IS 80. MAY SURPASS THAT BE A FEW DEGREES
F...ASSUMING THE MORNING MTN WAVE CLOUD DOESN/T HANG AROUND TOO
LONG. ALSO COMPARE THAT TO A NORMAL HIGH OF 62F. IT/S GOING TO
FEEL LIKE LATE SUMMER AROUND HERE. IF THAT/S NOT ENOUGH...MIN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS MAY ALSO COME VERY CLOSE
TO RECORD HIGH MINS FOR THE DATE.

ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO FALL AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR HIGHS AT MANY LOCATIONS TO EQUAL OR EXCEED THE
RECORD HIGH FOR THE 26TH. RECORD AT DENVER IS 80. MAY BEAT THAT BY
A DEG OR TWO. AS THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS...SFC WINDS
MAINLY ON THE PLAINS REMAIN LIGHT WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA. PRECIP STILL WELL NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT RANGE AT
THAT TIME.

SUNDAY STARTS OUT BALMY...ESLY IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WITH GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE/DOWN VALLEY WINDS. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 KTS IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AT 12Z. DURING THE DAY...THE
UPPER RIDGE COMES ITS EASTWARD MIGRATION AS A CHILLY AND WET UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. ACCORDING TO
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.
EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WARM AND GUSTY
SWLY SFC WINDS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ABNORMALLY WARM DAY WITH
HIGHS NEARING THE RECORD AGAIN AT MANY LOCATIONS SUCH AS DENVER.
HOWEVER DO NOT SEE THE RECORD HIGH OF 83F AT DENVER IN DANGER ON
SUNDAY. BY AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERN MTNS COULD BEGIN TO FEEL THE
IMPACT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL
WITH THE FIRST OF TWO STAND-UP FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING ACRS THE
HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT WILL
LIKELY CHANGE ANY RAIN TO SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET OR
SO.

ON MONDAY...A SECOND PUSH OF EVEN COOLER AIR SWEEPS IN WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH. MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH ACRS THE
NERN PLAINS OF COLORADO EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB MUCH ABOVE MID-MORNING READINGS. ALSO SEE PRECIP CHANCES
RISING WITH WEAK TO MODERATE QG ASCENT AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
LAPSE RATES. BY LATE IN THE DAY...COULD SEE ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE
FLOW STRENGTHENING ALONG THE SRN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER
DIVIDE GIVING THIS AREA A SECOND SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIP...
ALBEIT LIGHT. AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...PRECIP WILL BE SNOW ABOVE
8500-9000FT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AND BELOW THAT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH MOVES EAST BUT THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARM UP DURING THIS PERIOD WITH JUST A LIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THE NRN MTNS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY WEATHER WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD VISIBILITY IS
LIKELY INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME MODERATE
WESTERLIES TO OCCUR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS LATE BY LATE
THURSDAY... BUT THOSE ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE FOOTHILLS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELSCH/MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...KELSCH/MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 230202
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
802 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 759 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AROUND RIGHT NOW OVER
THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. IN FACT THERE AREA A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS MOVING EASTWARD. WINDS
ARE TRYING TO GO ALL DRAINAGE IN MOST PLACES. THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDINESS IS ON THE WAY OUT...BUT THERE IS A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MOVING OUR WAY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES WITH POPS AND CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

THERE ARE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING...THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A DRYER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS. WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT...IT WILL BE A WARMER DAY
TOMORROW...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

STILL LOOKS LIKE A WARM END TO THE WORK WEEK AND FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG WARM RIDGE WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY AND COLORADO ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD APPROACH OR
EXCEED DAYTIME RECORDS. SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER COLORADO AS THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS INCREASING IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES COULD
BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL SEE ADDITIONAL
COOLING AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL BE ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SUNDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS BACK TO SHOWING HIGHER
AMPLITUDE THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS. EACH OF THE
MODELS AGREE THAT THE PATTERN WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE VERY RAPIDLY. MOUNTAIN AREAS MAY
STILL SEE ABOUT 24 HOURS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT THE PLAINS WILL
ONLY GET 9-15 HOURS OF PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH AXIS SPEEDS
EASTWARD. MOUNTAIN AREAS COULD PICK UP A DECENT BATCH OF SNOW
WHILE PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS REMAINS IN LIQUID FORM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
STATE AS UPPER RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WEAK DRAINAGE WINDS HAVE ALREADY KICKED IN AT DIA. THE LOWER
CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. NO CEILING ISSUES THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RJK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 230202
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
802 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 759 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AROUND RIGHT NOW OVER
THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. IN FACT THERE AREA A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS MOVING EASTWARD. WINDS
ARE TRYING TO GO ALL DRAINAGE IN MOST PLACES. THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDINESS IS ON THE WAY OUT...BUT THERE IS A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MOVING OUR WAY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES WITH POPS AND CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

THERE ARE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING...THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A DRYER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS. WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT...IT WILL BE A WARMER DAY
TOMORROW...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

STILL LOOKS LIKE A WARM END TO THE WORK WEEK AND FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG WARM RIDGE WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY AND COLORADO ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD APPROACH OR
EXCEED DAYTIME RECORDS. SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER COLORADO AS THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS INCREASING IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES COULD
BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL SEE ADDITIONAL
COOLING AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL BE ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SUNDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS BACK TO SHOWING HIGHER
AMPLITUDE THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS. EACH OF THE
MODELS AGREE THAT THE PATTERN WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE VERY RAPIDLY. MOUNTAIN AREAS MAY
STILL SEE ABOUT 24 HOURS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT THE PLAINS WILL
ONLY GET 9-15 HOURS OF PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH AXIS SPEEDS
EASTWARD. MOUNTAIN AREAS COULD PICK UP A DECENT BATCH OF SNOW
WHILE PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS REMAINS IN LIQUID FORM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
STATE AS UPPER RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WEAK DRAINAGE WINDS HAVE ALREADY KICKED IN AT DIA. THE LOWER
CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. NO CEILING ISSUES THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RJK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 222113
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
313 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

THERE ARE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING...THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A DRYER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS. WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT...IT WILL BE A WARMER DAY
TOMORROW...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

STILL LOOKS LIEKE A WARM END TO THE WORK WEEK AND FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG WARM RIDGE WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY AND COLORADO ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD APPROACH OR
EXCEED DAYTIME RECORDS. SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER COLORADO AS THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS INCREASING IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES COULD
BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL SEE ADDITIONAL
COOLING AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL BE ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SUNDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS BACK TO SHOWING HIGHER
AMPLITUDE THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS. EACH OF THE
MODELS AGREE THAT THE PATTERN WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE VERY RAPIDLY. MOUNTAIN AREAS MAY
STILL SEE ABOUT 24 HOURS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT THE PLAINS WILL
ONLY GET 9-15 HOURS OF PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH AXIS SPEEDS
EASTWARD. MOUNTAIN AREAS COULD PICK UP A DECENT BATCH OF SNOW
WHILE PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS REMAINS IN LIQUID FORM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
STATE AS UPPER RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

LIGHT WINDS WILL SETTLE INTO DRAINAGE DIRECTIONS AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOWERS
SHOULD MISS THE AIRPORTS. SHOWERS WILL MID EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RTG





000
FXUS65 KBOU 221615
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1015 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

SOME NICE WAVE CLOUDS SEEN ON SATELLITE LOOPS THIS MORNING...THIS
INDICATIVE OF INCREASING DRY WESTERLY FLOW. FORECAST OF SHOWERS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY LOOKS GOOD. TOOK OUT
PLAINS SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT LEFT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
FORECAST...WE WILL SEE...BUT THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH DOWNSLOPING/
DRYING FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS
TIME. THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE WEAK AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY LESS THAN A TENTH
INCH. THE SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. APPEARS THIS
PRECIPITATION IS BEING PRODUCED BY THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
WEST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH EARLY TO MID
MORNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. DUE TO THE WESTERLY
FLOW...LITTLE IS ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SURVIVE MOVING OFF
THE MOUNTAINS AND ONTO THE FRONT RANGE. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THIS
MORNING. IF ANYTHING SURVIVES CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS...IT WILL BE
WEAK.

AIRMASS BECOMES SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN...WHAT
PRECIPITATION FALL WILL BE LIGHT. UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A FEW LOWER 70S CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THIS IS
STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AIRMASS DRIES QUICKLY
TONIGHT. WILL END THE PRECIPITATION BY MID EVENING. LOWS WILL BE
COOLER WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTHWARD FM THE SRN
ROCKIES INTO THE AREA FM THU INTO FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY WX
PTRN WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. HIGHS ON THU WILL RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER NERN CO WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRI.
RECORD HIGH AT DENVER IS 80 ON FRI SO IT COULD BE TIED OR BKN.

FOR SAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH INCREASING
SWLY FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE DRY.  THE ECMWF SHOWS A
WEAK FNT BACKDOORING ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT
SHOW THIS FEATURE. THUS THE ECMWF SHOWS TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
ON SAT WHILE THE GFS HAS READINGS SIMILAR TO FRI. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP READINGS IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN CO.

BY SUN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE FM THE WSW AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA.  SOME MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE
MTNS BY AFTN SO WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.  OVER THE REST
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE DRY.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF
ABV NORMAL TEMPS OVER NERN CO WITH READINGS IN THE 70S.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.  THE ECMWF SHOWS FAVORABLE MID LVL ASCENT LATE SUN NIGHT THRU
MON AFTN.  THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A GOOD CHC OF PCPN IN THE MTNS.  AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS A COLD FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THERE SHOULD BE A
CHC OF PCPN.  AS FOR HIGHS TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 50S OVER
NERN CO.

BY MON NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE RGN WITH PCPN CHANCES ENDING.  ON TUE
DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY
PCPN.  AFTN HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WINDS AT AREA AIRPORTS ARE TRANSITIONING THIS MORNING FROM
SOUTHEAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST...THEN WILL GO TO DOWNSLOPE AROUND
SUNSET TONIGHT. WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT IF SHOWERS
DEVELOP...EXPECT THEM TO BE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF DENVER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...MEIER





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