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000
FXUS65 KBOU 192035
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
235 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

HIGH CLOUD DECK HAS THINNED THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION FILLING
IN BEHIND IT. MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS ORGANIZING AS EXPECTED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS SOUTH OF I-70 AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE PALMER DIVIDE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT THEY WILL ALSO BE ENCOUNTERING A MORE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER. AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IS EVEN MORE
STABLE SO HAVE FURTHER REDUCED/REMOVED POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THE PASSING TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH
IS VERY WEAK TONIGHT...SO EXPECT MOST OF THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...WE WILL START OFF WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WHICH
WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WARM FROM TODAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL
BE REACHED BY MID DAY. STILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...MOST NUMEROUS
IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST OF THE
AREA. A DECENT UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS GENERATE A TOUCH OF QPF MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND KEPT SOME LOW SHOWERY-TYPE POPS IN THE FORECAST TO
COVER THAT. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EAST OF COLORADO SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLIES OVERSPREADING THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THE MODELS ARE
DROPPING A BIT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS COLORADO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT QG LIFT IS RATHER UNORGRANIZED
AND MOISTURE IS SPARSE. ADDITIONALLY...DECENT CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST ALL POINT TO WIND BEING THE MAIN CONSEQUENCE OF
THIS FEATURE. THESE WINDS COULD CREATE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT
TIMES MIDWEEK. MOREOVER THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE WEDNESDAY. ONCE THIS
TROUGH PASSES BY WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS NOW TIL AROUND 02Z. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE BUT THREAT IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS COULD LOWER TO AROUND 6 THOUSAND FEET FOR ILS LANDING
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE VISUAL LANDINGS
WILL PREVAIL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM EAST/SOUTHEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 03Z-07Z...ALTHOUGH VARIABLE
WIND GUSTS 15-25 KTS POSSIBLE FROM PASSING SHOWERS BEFORE 03Z.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY BY 18Z SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 192035
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
235 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

HIGH CLOUD DECK HAS THINNED THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION FILLING
IN BEHIND IT. MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS ORGANIZING AS EXPECTED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS SOUTH OF I-70 AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE PALMER DIVIDE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT THEY WILL ALSO BE ENCOUNTERING A MORE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER. AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IS EVEN MORE
STABLE SO HAVE FURTHER REDUCED/REMOVED POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THE PASSING TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH
IS VERY WEAK TONIGHT...SO EXPECT MOST OF THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...WE WILL START OFF WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WHICH
WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WARM FROM TODAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL
BE REACHED BY MID DAY. STILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...MOST NUMEROUS
IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST OF THE
AREA. A DECENT UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS GENERATE A TOUCH OF QPF MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND KEPT SOME LOW SHOWERY-TYPE POPS IN THE FORECAST TO
COVER THAT. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EAST OF COLORADO SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLIES OVERSPREADING THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THE MODELS ARE
DROPPING A BIT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS COLORADO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT QG LIFT IS RATHER UNORGRANIZED
AND MOISTURE IS SPARSE. ADDITIONALLY...DECENT CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST ALL POINT TO WIND BEING THE MAIN CONSEQUENCE OF
THIS FEATURE. THESE WINDS COULD CREATE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT
TIMES MIDWEEK. MOREOVER THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE WEDNESDAY. ONCE THIS
TROUGH PASSES BY WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS NOW TIL AROUND 02Z. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE BUT THREAT IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS COULD LOWER TO AROUND 6 THOUSAND FEET FOR ILS LANDING
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE VISUAL LANDINGS
WILL PREVAIL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM EAST/SOUTHEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 03Z-07Z...ALTHOUGH VARIABLE
WIND GUSTS 15-25 KTS POSSIBLE FROM PASSING SHOWERS BEFORE 03Z.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY BY 18Z SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS65 KBOU 191611
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1011 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY...COOLER...AND INCREASE IN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA INCLUDING DENVER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A THICK
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK REMAINED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
CLOUD DECK WAS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF THINNING IN THE LATEST
SATELLITE PICS...SO WE SHOULD SEE A FEW BREAKS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AND NEARLY OVERCAST SKIES
REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE PARK/SUMMIT COUNTY AREA STRETCHING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS WHERE BEST BUT STILL
WEAK INSTABILITY IS PROGGED. CAPES ONLY ABOUT 100-300 J/KG BUT
SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SNOW IN
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10-10.5 THOUSAND FEET. DID INCREASE
POPS...QPF...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT MORE IN
THOSE LOCATIONS. I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR ON THE EDGE OF ANY
INSTABILITY BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED STORM DRIFT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EASTERN PLAINS LOOK
TOO STABLE BEHIND WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR MUCH CONVECTION UNTIL
PERHAPS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO DELAYED WEATHER CHANCES
THERE...AND EVEN THOSE ARE QUITE SMALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW IN FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
UPPER LEVEL OPEN WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. IR SAT IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN COLORADO IN THE PAST HOUR IN
RESPONSE TO THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WARM SECTOR ISENTROPIC
LIFT. NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AS OF YET...
EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE HIGH MTN PEAKS. MEANWHILE A SFC TROUGH IN
ERN COLORADO INTERSECTS WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC COLD FRONT
ADVANCING SEWRD ACROSS NRN WYOMING AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURE...THICKNESS AND WIND FIELDS SHOW THIS NEBULOUS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO JUST
BEFORE 1200Z AND MOVING INTO THE DENVER METRO AREA AROUND 1500Z.
AIR ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE HUMID BEHIND THIS BNDRY. POCKETS
OF GUSTY NELY WINDS CAN BE SEEN JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT. WITH THE
MAIN RISE/FALL PRESSURE COUPLET REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE
CWA...MODELS SHOW POST-FRONTAL WINDS WEAKENING AS THEY MAKE THEIR
WAY TO THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF
15-20KT NELY WINDS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW IN PLACE SHOULD SEE A STEADY LOWERING OF CLOUD BASES ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
MOISTEN. IN ADDITION...THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK VORT LOBE NOW
CROSSING SWRN COLORADO WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT AND MOISTURE
FOR FAIRLY RAPID SHOWER FORMATION IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AROUND SOUTH
PARK LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THIS HAPPENING AFTER
1500Z.

SHOULD SEE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND INSTABILITY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY OVER THE CWA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH INCHING CLOSER. WRF...NAM
AND HRRR SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE FRONT RANGE DRIFTING
OVER THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR AFTER 2000Z TODAY. MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES ARE GENERALLY OF LOW INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE WRF
AND NAM SHOW A BAND OF 20-35DBZ CELLS SWINGING SEWRD ACROSS THE
DENVER METRO AREA JUST PRIOR TO 20/0000Z AND THEN OVER DOUGLAS AND
WESTERN ELBERT COUNTIES BETWEEN 0000Z AND 0300Z. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH DRIVES A THETA-E RIDGE UP
AGAINST THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. THIS IS WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD WITH
ISOLATED STORM CELLS ALONG THIS AXIS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALSO
POSSIBLE. NOT AS CONFIDENT WE/LL SEE ANY HAIL FROM THESE LOW-TOP
T-STORMS AS CAPES AND LAPSE RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS MODELS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. ELSEWHERE...LOW POPS WARRANTED UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY AS MUCH AS 15 DEG F
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO QUICKLY DROP OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH...A SMATTERING OF WEAK SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN SOUTHWEST OF DENVER AND ACROSS SOUTH PARK THROUGH THE
WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL LOW ENOUGH
FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THIS AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA. THIS ALREADY REFLECTED IN FORECAST WITH
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. DRIER FURTHER NORTH BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABLITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT OVER COLORADO AS FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS MORE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.  A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY. DRY AND MORE STABLE ON THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SLOPES AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW POOLS MOISTURE OVER EAST SLOPES.

FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NEXT TROF DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BIG WARMUP OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. COULD BE A DRY LINE SETUP
OVER THE EASTERN BORDER WITH KANSAS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE FAR PLAINS WITH
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE FRONT
RANGE...GENERALLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROF LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND HIGH PLAINS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY...COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD AGAIN INTO COLORADO ON FRIDAY FOR
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST/NORTHEASTERLY. WINDS SPEEDS ALREADY
SLACKING OFF TO 10 KTS OR LESS BEHIND THE FRONT AND TURNING MORE
EASTERLY. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
UNTIL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFT
21Z WITH VARIABLE WIND GUSTS 15-25 KTS NEAR SHOWERS. CEILINGS
COULD LOWER TO AROUND 6 THOUSAND FEET FOR ILS LANDING CONDITIONS
WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS 21Z-02Z.  OTHERWISE VISUAL LANDINGS
WILL PREVAIL. CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER IS QUITE LOW WITH CAPES LESS
THAN 100 J/KG.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS65 KBOU 191611
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1011 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY...COOLER...AND INCREASE IN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA INCLUDING DENVER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A THICK
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK REMAINED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
CLOUD DECK WAS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF THINNING IN THE LATEST
SATELLITE PICS...SO WE SHOULD SEE A FEW BREAKS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AND NEARLY OVERCAST SKIES
REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE PARK/SUMMIT COUNTY AREA STRETCHING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS WHERE BEST BUT STILL
WEAK INSTABILITY IS PROGGED. CAPES ONLY ABOUT 100-300 J/KG BUT
SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SNOW IN
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10-10.5 THOUSAND FEET. DID INCREASE
POPS...QPF...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT MORE IN
THOSE LOCATIONS. I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR ON THE EDGE OF ANY
INSTABILITY BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED STORM DRIFT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EASTERN PLAINS LOOK
TOO STABLE BEHIND WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR MUCH CONVECTION UNTIL
PERHAPS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO DELAYED WEATHER CHANCES
THERE...AND EVEN THOSE ARE QUITE SMALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW IN FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
UPPER LEVEL OPEN WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. IR SAT IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN COLORADO IN THE PAST HOUR IN
RESPONSE TO THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WARM SECTOR ISENTROPIC
LIFT. NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AS OF YET...
EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE HIGH MTN PEAKS. MEANWHILE A SFC TROUGH IN
ERN COLORADO INTERSECTS WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC COLD FRONT
ADVANCING SEWRD ACROSS NRN WYOMING AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURE...THICKNESS AND WIND FIELDS SHOW THIS NEBULOUS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO JUST
BEFORE 1200Z AND MOVING INTO THE DENVER METRO AREA AROUND 1500Z.
AIR ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE HUMID BEHIND THIS BNDRY. POCKETS
OF GUSTY NELY WINDS CAN BE SEEN JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT. WITH THE
MAIN RISE/FALL PRESSURE COUPLET REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE
CWA...MODELS SHOW POST-FRONTAL WINDS WEAKENING AS THEY MAKE THEIR
WAY TO THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF
15-20KT NELY WINDS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW IN PLACE SHOULD SEE A STEADY LOWERING OF CLOUD BASES ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
MOISTEN. IN ADDITION...THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK VORT LOBE NOW
CROSSING SWRN COLORADO WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT AND MOISTURE
FOR FAIRLY RAPID SHOWER FORMATION IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AROUND SOUTH
PARK LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THIS HAPPENING AFTER
1500Z.

SHOULD SEE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND INSTABILITY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY OVER THE CWA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH INCHING CLOSER. WRF...NAM
AND HRRR SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE FRONT RANGE DRIFTING
OVER THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR AFTER 2000Z TODAY. MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES ARE GENERALLY OF LOW INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE WRF
AND NAM SHOW A BAND OF 20-35DBZ CELLS SWINGING SEWRD ACROSS THE
DENVER METRO AREA JUST PRIOR TO 20/0000Z AND THEN OVER DOUGLAS AND
WESTERN ELBERT COUNTIES BETWEEN 0000Z AND 0300Z. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH DRIVES A THETA-E RIDGE UP
AGAINST THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. THIS IS WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD WITH
ISOLATED STORM CELLS ALONG THIS AXIS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALSO
POSSIBLE. NOT AS CONFIDENT WE/LL SEE ANY HAIL FROM THESE LOW-TOP
T-STORMS AS CAPES AND LAPSE RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS MODELS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. ELSEWHERE...LOW POPS WARRANTED UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY AS MUCH AS 15 DEG F
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO QUICKLY DROP OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH...A SMATTERING OF WEAK SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN SOUTHWEST OF DENVER AND ACROSS SOUTH PARK THROUGH THE
WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL LOW ENOUGH
FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THIS AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA. THIS ALREADY REFLECTED IN FORECAST WITH
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. DRIER FURTHER NORTH BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABLITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT OVER COLORADO AS FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS MORE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.  A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY. DRY AND MORE STABLE ON THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SLOPES AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW POOLS MOISTURE OVER EAST SLOPES.

FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NEXT TROF DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BIG WARMUP OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. COULD BE A DRY LINE SETUP
OVER THE EASTERN BORDER WITH KANSAS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE FAR PLAINS WITH
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE FRONT
RANGE...GENERALLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROF LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND HIGH PLAINS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY...COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD AGAIN INTO COLORADO ON FRIDAY FOR
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST/NORTHEASTERLY. WINDS SPEEDS ALREADY
SLACKING OFF TO 10 KTS OR LESS BEHIND THE FRONT AND TURNING MORE
EASTERLY. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
UNTIL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFT
21Z WITH VARIABLE WIND GUSTS 15-25 KTS NEAR SHOWERS. CEILINGS
COULD LOWER TO AROUND 6 THOUSAND FEET FOR ILS LANDING CONDITIONS
WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS 21Z-02Z.  OTHERWISE VISUAL LANDINGS
WILL PREVAIL. CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER IS QUITE LOW WITH CAPES LESS
THAN 100 J/KG.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 191010
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
410 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW IN FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND UPPER LEVEL OPEN WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IR SAT IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A DRAMATIC
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN COLORADO IN THE
PAST HOUR IN RESPONSE TO THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WARM SECTOR
ISENTROPIC LIFT. NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AS OF
YET... EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE HIGH MTN PEAKS. MEANWHILE A SFC
TROUGH IN ERN COLORADO INTERSECTS WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC COLD
FRONT ADVANCING SEWRD ACROSS NRN WYOMING AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE...THICKNESS AND WIND FIELDS SHOW THIS
NEBULOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
COLORADO JUST BEFORE 1200Z AND MOVING INTO THE DENVER METRO AREA
AROUND 1500Z. AIR ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE HUMID BEHIND THIS
BNDRY. POCKETS OF GUSTY NELY WINDS CAN BE SEEN JUST BEHIND THIS
FRONT. WITH THE MAIN RISE/FALL PRESSURE COUPLET REMAINING WELL
EAST OF THE CWA...MODELS SHOW POST-FRONTAL WINDS WEAKENING AS THEY
MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A SHORT
PERIOD OF 15-20KT NELY WINDS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH POST
FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE SHOULD SEE A STEADY LOWERING OF
CLOUD BASES ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN. IN ADDITION...THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
VORT LOBE NOW CROSSING SWRN COLORADO WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT
AND MOISTURE FOR FAIRLY RAPID SHOWER FORMATION IN THE CENTRAL MTNS
AROUND SOUTH PARK LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THIS
HAPPENING AFTER 1500Z.

SHOULD SEE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND INSTABILITY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY OVER THE CWA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH INCHING CLOSER. WRF...NAM
AND HRRR SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE FRONT RANGE DRIFTING
OVER THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR AFTER 2000Z TODAY. MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES ARE GENERALLY OF LOW INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE WRF
AND NAM SHOW A BAND OF 20-35DBZ CELLS SWINGING SEWRD ACROSS THE
DENVER METRO AREA JUST PRIOR TO 20/0000Z AND THEN OVER DOUGLAS AND
WESTERN ELBERT COUNTIES BETWEEN 0000Z AND 0300Z. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH DRIVES A THETA-E RIDGE UP
AGAINST THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. THIS IS WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD WITH
ISOLATED STORM CELLS ALONG THIS AXIS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALSO
POSSIBLE. NOT AS CONFIDENT WE/LL SEE ANY HAIL FROM THESE LOW-TOP
T-STORMS AS CAPES AND LAPSE RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS MODELS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. ELSEWHERE...LOW POPS WARRANTED UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY AS MUCH AS 15 DEG F
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO QUICKLY DROP OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH...A SMATTERING OF WEAK SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN SOUTHWEST OF DENVER AND ACROSS SOUTH PARK THROUGH THE
WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL LOW ENOUGH
FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THIS AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA. THIS ALREADY REFLECTED IN FORECAST WITH
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. DRIER FURTHER NORTH BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABLITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT OVER COLORADO AS FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS MORE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.  A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY. DRY AND MORE STABLE ON THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SLOPES AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW POOLS MOISTURE OVER EAST SLOPES.

FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NEXT TROF DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BIG WARMUP OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. COULD BE A DRY LINE SETUP
OVER THE EASTERN BORDER WITH KANSAS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE FAR PLAINS WITH
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE FRONT
RANGE...GENERALLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROF LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND HIGH PLAINS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY...COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD AGAIN INTO COLORADO ON FRIDAY FOR
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TROUGH THE DENVER AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 1500Z THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST-
NORTHWEST TO A NORTHEAST COMPONENT WITH ITS PASSAGE. COULD SEE A
1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF 15-20 KTS GUSTS WITH FROPA. CLOUD BASES WILL
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY WITH BASES AS LOW AS 5000-6000 FEET AGL WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE SHOWERS IN THE DENVER AREA BETWEEN 19/2100Z AND
20/0100Z. OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL RISE IN CLOUD BASES
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT EAST-NORTHEAST SFC
WINDS OF 8-15KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 7-12KTS IN
THE EVENING...THEN LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 191010
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
410 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW IN FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND UPPER LEVEL OPEN WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IR SAT IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A DRAMATIC
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN COLORADO IN THE
PAST HOUR IN RESPONSE TO THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WARM SECTOR
ISENTROPIC LIFT. NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AS OF
YET... EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE HIGH MTN PEAKS. MEANWHILE A SFC
TROUGH IN ERN COLORADO INTERSECTS WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC COLD
FRONT ADVANCING SEWRD ACROSS NRN WYOMING AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE...THICKNESS AND WIND FIELDS SHOW THIS
NEBULOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
COLORADO JUST BEFORE 1200Z AND MOVING INTO THE DENVER METRO AREA
AROUND 1500Z. AIR ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE HUMID BEHIND THIS
BNDRY. POCKETS OF GUSTY NELY WINDS CAN BE SEEN JUST BEHIND THIS
FRONT. WITH THE MAIN RISE/FALL PRESSURE COUPLET REMAINING WELL
EAST OF THE CWA...MODELS SHOW POST-FRONTAL WINDS WEAKENING AS THEY
MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A SHORT
PERIOD OF 15-20KT NELY WINDS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH POST
FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE SHOULD SEE A STEADY LOWERING OF
CLOUD BASES ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN. IN ADDITION...THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
VORT LOBE NOW CROSSING SWRN COLORADO WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT
AND MOISTURE FOR FAIRLY RAPID SHOWER FORMATION IN THE CENTRAL MTNS
AROUND SOUTH PARK LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THIS
HAPPENING AFTER 1500Z.

SHOULD SEE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND INSTABILITY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY OVER THE CWA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH INCHING CLOSER. WRF...NAM
AND HRRR SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE FRONT RANGE DRIFTING
OVER THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR AFTER 2000Z TODAY. MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES ARE GENERALLY OF LOW INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE WRF
AND NAM SHOW A BAND OF 20-35DBZ CELLS SWINGING SEWRD ACROSS THE
DENVER METRO AREA JUST PRIOR TO 20/0000Z AND THEN OVER DOUGLAS AND
WESTERN ELBERT COUNTIES BETWEEN 0000Z AND 0300Z. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH DRIVES A THETA-E RIDGE UP
AGAINST THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. THIS IS WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD WITH
ISOLATED STORM CELLS ALONG THIS AXIS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALSO
POSSIBLE. NOT AS CONFIDENT WE/LL SEE ANY HAIL FROM THESE LOW-TOP
T-STORMS AS CAPES AND LAPSE RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS MODELS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. ELSEWHERE...LOW POPS WARRANTED UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY AS MUCH AS 15 DEG F
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO QUICKLY DROP OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH...A SMATTERING OF WEAK SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN SOUTHWEST OF DENVER AND ACROSS SOUTH PARK THROUGH THE
WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL LOW ENOUGH
FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THIS AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA. THIS ALREADY REFLECTED IN FORECAST WITH
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. DRIER FURTHER NORTH BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABLITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT OVER COLORADO AS FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS MORE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.  A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY. DRY AND MORE STABLE ON THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SLOPES AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW POOLS MOISTURE OVER EAST SLOPES.

FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NEXT TROF DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BIG WARMUP OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. COULD BE A DRY LINE SETUP
OVER THE EASTERN BORDER WITH KANSAS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE FAR PLAINS WITH
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE FRONT
RANGE...GENERALLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROF LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND HIGH PLAINS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY...COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD AGAIN INTO COLORADO ON FRIDAY FOR
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TROUGH THE DENVER AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 1500Z THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST-
NORTHWEST TO A NORTHEAST COMPONENT WITH ITS PASSAGE. COULD SEE A
1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF 15-20 KTS GUSTS WITH FROPA. CLOUD BASES WILL
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY WITH BASES AS LOW AS 5000-6000 FEET AGL WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE SHOWERS IN THE DENVER AREA BETWEEN 19/2100Z AND
20/0100Z. OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL RISE IN CLOUD BASES
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT EAST-NORTHEAST SFC
WINDS OF 8-15KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 7-12KTS IN
THE EVENING...THEN LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 191010 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
410 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW IN FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
UPPER LEVEL OPEN WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. IR SAT IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN COLORADO IN THE PAST HOUR IN
RESPONSE TO THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WARM SECTOR ISENTROPIC
LIFT. NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AS OF YET...
EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE HIGH MTN PEAKS. MEANWHILE A SFC TROUGH IN
ERN COLORADO INTERSECTS WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC COLD FRONT
ADVANCING SEWRD ACROSS NRN WYOMING AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURE...THICKNESS AND WIND FIELDS SHOW THIS NEBULOUS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO JUST
BEFORE 1200Z AND MOVING INTO THE DENVER METRO AREA AROUND 1500Z.
AIR ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE HUMID BEHIND THIS BNDRY. POCKETS
OF GUSTY NELY WINDS CAN BE SEEN JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT. WITH THE
MAIN RISE/FALL PRESSURE COUPLET REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE
CWA...MODELS SHOW POST-FRONTAL WINDS WEAKENING AS THEY MAKE THEIR
WAY TO THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF
15-20KT NELY WINDS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW IN PLACE SHOULD SEE A STEADY LOWERING OF CLOUD BASES ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
MOISTEN. IN ADDITION...THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK VORT LOBE NOW
CROSSING SWRN COLORADO WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT AND MOISTURE
FOR FAIRLY RAPID SHOWER FORMATION IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AROUND SOUTH
PARK LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THIS HAPPENING AFTER
1500Z.

SHOULD SEE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND INSTABILITY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY OVER THE CWA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH INCHING CLOSER. WRF...NAM
AND HRRR SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE FRONT RANGE DRIFTING
OVER THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR AFTER 2000Z TODAY. MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES ARE GENERALLY OF LOW INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE WRF
AND NAM SHOW A BAND OF 20-35DBZ CELLS SWINGING SEWRD ACROSS THE
DENVER METRO AREA JUST PRIOR TO 20/0000Z AND THEN OVER DOUGLAS AND
WESTERN ELBERT COUNTIES BETWEEN 0000Z AND 0300Z. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH DRIVES A THETA-E RIDGE UP
AGAINST THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. THIS IS WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD WITH
ISOLATED STORM CELLS ALONG THIS AXIS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALSO
POSSIBLE. NOT AS CONFIDENT WE/LL SEE ANY HAIL FROM THESE LOW-TOP
T-STORMS AS CAPES AND LAPSE RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS MODELS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. ELSEWHERE...LOW POPS WARRANTED UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY AS MUCH AS 15 DEG F
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO QUICKLY DROP OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH...A SMATTERING OF WEAK SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN SOUTHWEST OF DENVER AND ACROSS SOUTH PARK THROUGH THE
WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL LOW ENOUGH
FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THIS AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA. THIS ALREADY REFLECTED IN FORECAST WITH
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. DRIER FURTHER NORTH BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABLITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT OVER COLORADO AS FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS MORE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.  A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY. DRY AND MORE STABLE ON THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SLOPES AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW POOLS MOISTURE OVER EAST SLOPES.

FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NEXT TROF DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BIG WARMUP OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. COULD BE A DRY LINE SETUP
OVER THE EASTERN BORDER WITH KANSAS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE FAR PLAINS WITH
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE FRONT
RANGE...GENERALLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROF LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND HIGH PLAINS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY...COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD AGAIN INTO COLORADO ON FRIDAY FOR
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TROUGH THE DENVER AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 1500Z THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST-
NORTHWEST TO A NORTHEAST COMPONENT WITH ITS PASSAGE. COULD SEE A
1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF 15-20 KTS GUSTS WITH FROPA. CLOUD BASES WILL
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY WITH BASES AS LOW AS 5000-6000 FEET AGL WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE SHOWERS IN THE DENVER AREA BETWEEN 19/2100Z AND
20/0100Z. OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL RISE IN CLOUD BASES
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT EAST-NORTHEAST SFC
WINDS OF 8-15KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 7-12KTS IN
THE EVENING...THEN LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 191010 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
410 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW IN FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
UPPER LEVEL OPEN WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. IR SAT IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN COLORADO IN THE PAST HOUR IN
RESPONSE TO THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WARM SECTOR ISENTROPIC
LIFT. NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AS OF YET...
EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE HIGH MTN PEAKS. MEANWHILE A SFC TROUGH IN
ERN COLORADO INTERSECTS WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC COLD FRONT
ADVANCING SEWRD ACROSS NRN WYOMING AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURE...THICKNESS AND WIND FIELDS SHOW THIS NEBULOUS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO JUST
BEFORE 1200Z AND MOVING INTO THE DENVER METRO AREA AROUND 1500Z.
AIR ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE HUMID BEHIND THIS BNDRY. POCKETS
OF GUSTY NELY WINDS CAN BE SEEN JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT. WITH THE
MAIN RISE/FALL PRESSURE COUPLET REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE
CWA...MODELS SHOW POST-FRONTAL WINDS WEAKENING AS THEY MAKE THEIR
WAY TO THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF
15-20KT NELY WINDS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW IN PLACE SHOULD SEE A STEADY LOWERING OF CLOUD BASES ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
MOISTEN. IN ADDITION...THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK VORT LOBE NOW
CROSSING SWRN COLORADO WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT AND MOISTURE
FOR FAIRLY RAPID SHOWER FORMATION IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AROUND SOUTH
PARK LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THIS HAPPENING AFTER
1500Z.

SHOULD SEE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND INSTABILITY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY OVER THE CWA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH INCHING CLOSER. WRF...NAM
AND HRRR SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE FRONT RANGE DRIFTING
OVER THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR AFTER 2000Z TODAY. MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES ARE GENERALLY OF LOW INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE WRF
AND NAM SHOW A BAND OF 20-35DBZ CELLS SWINGING SEWRD ACROSS THE
DENVER METRO AREA JUST PRIOR TO 20/0000Z AND THEN OVER DOUGLAS AND
WESTERN ELBERT COUNTIES BETWEEN 0000Z AND 0300Z. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH DRIVES A THETA-E RIDGE UP
AGAINST THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. THIS IS WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD WITH
ISOLATED STORM CELLS ALONG THIS AXIS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALSO
POSSIBLE. NOT AS CONFIDENT WE/LL SEE ANY HAIL FROM THESE LOW-TOP
T-STORMS AS CAPES AND LAPSE RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS MODELS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. ELSEWHERE...LOW POPS WARRANTED UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY AS MUCH AS 15 DEG F
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO QUICKLY DROP OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH...A SMATTERING OF WEAK SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN SOUTHWEST OF DENVER AND ACROSS SOUTH PARK THROUGH THE
WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL LOW ENOUGH
FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THIS AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA. THIS ALREADY REFLECTED IN FORECAST WITH
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. DRIER FURTHER NORTH BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABLITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT OVER COLORADO AS FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS MORE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.  A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY. DRY AND MORE STABLE ON THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SLOPES AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW POOLS MOISTURE OVER EAST SLOPES.

FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NEXT TROF DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BIG WARMUP OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. COULD BE A DRY LINE SETUP
OVER THE EASTERN BORDER WITH KANSAS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE FAR PLAINS WITH
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE FRONT
RANGE...GENERALLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROF LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND HIGH PLAINS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY...COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD AGAIN INTO COLORADO ON FRIDAY FOR
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TROUGH THE DENVER AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 1500Z THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST-
NORTHWEST TO A NORTHEAST COMPONENT WITH ITS PASSAGE. COULD SEE A
1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF 15-20 KTS GUSTS WITH FROPA. CLOUD BASES WILL
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY WITH BASES AS LOW AS 5000-6000 FEET AGL WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE SHOWERS IN THE DENVER AREA BETWEEN 19/2100Z AND
20/0100Z. OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL RISE IN CLOUD BASES
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT EAST-NORTHEAST SFC
WINDS OF 8-15KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 7-12KTS IN
THE EVENING...THEN LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 190241
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
841 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...ISSUED 0845 PM FRI APR 10 2014
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...BUT IT APPEARS NORTHERLY FLOW ON
PLAINS WILL DEVELOP A BIT EARLIER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. RAP HAS
WELL ESTABLISHED LOW NEAR KANSAS BORDER.


&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH A BIT EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL BRING NLY WINDS IN AROUND SUNRISE.
WILL KEEP VCSH...AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH HIGH BASED CUMULUS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS SOUTH PARK INTO THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING CAPES OF
AROUND 100 J/KG ACROSS PARK COUNTY INTO THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. AT THIS TIME...NO CONVECTION INDICATED ON
RADAR. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE
PALMER DIVIDE BY THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR
THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP...WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. DRY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST. ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH
PARK...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. ON SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE MORNING EDGING INTO WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS TROUGH AXIS
ROUGHLY ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA. FAIRLY MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER COLORADO FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD
SEE A GOOD CHANCE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. CAPE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BUT INCREASES DURING THE DAY WITH VALUES AROUND 250
J/KG BY THE EVENING. SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. AIRMASS
TO BE FAIRLY MILD SO SNOW LEVELS TO BE RATHER HIGH...AROUND 10000
FEET AGL. ANY ACCUMULATION TO BE LIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PASSES. ACROSS PLAINS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
MORNING...REACHING DENVER AREA AROUND 15Z. FRONT APPEARS TO
BRIEFLY STALL ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. UPSLOPE DEVELOPS BY THE AFTERNOON
IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. AIRMASS
INITIALLY FAIRLY STABLE AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT...BUT
BECOMES SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS
SHOWING ONLY LIMITED CAPE...WITH VALUES AROUND 250 J/KG ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE INTO LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. VALUES LESS
NORTH OF DENVER. SO BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHER SECTION OF WASHINGTON
COUNTY. POPS TO BE LOWER ELSEWHERE ON THE PLAINS. THERE MAY BE
SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN DOUGLAS INTO ELBERT COUNTY
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAY HELP A FEW OF THE STORMS PRODUCE
BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.
OTHERWISE...RAINFALL TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. AIRMASS TO BE COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAT FRIDAY`S READINGS.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT. THE GFS DOES SEEM TO SUFFER FROM
TOO MUCH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THUS SLOWER TROUGH MOVEMENT...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS THERE WITH
BEST LOW/MID LEVEL FOCUS STILL ADVERTISED IN THAT PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

BY SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH
GENERALLY A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE PUSHING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING...AND
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS TO REDEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE AND PARK
COUNTY.

ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. THIS WILL ACT TO CAP OFF ANY
CONVECTION BUT STILL CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE.

BY TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER AND BOUNDARY LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO DRY AS A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.
THE LATEST MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE
SOUTHWESTERLIES...BUT WINDS SHOULD STILL INCREASE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER FIRE DANGER. WILL ALSO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS GIVEN A POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT
AND LOCAL CONVERGENCE...BUT CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW ANY
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. CAPES ARE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG TOO.

WEDNESDAY MAY FEATURE HIGHER FIRE DANGER AS STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
OCCURS AND WINDS INCREASE IN ALL AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
GREENUP OF FUELS OCCURRING FROM NOW THROUGH THAT TIME WHICH WILL
HELP OFFSET THE WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOWER HUMIDITIES.
MEANWHILE...SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH TROUGH PASSAGE TO OUR NORTH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID
OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION GENERATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR GENERALLY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE
WAKE OF WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. AIRMASS LOOKS RATHER DRY AND STABLE FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL.

AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AIRPORTS...A BIT MORE
NORTHEAST AT KBJC. WINDS EXPECTING TO BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE DRAINAGE PREVAILS BY 04Z. SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE
THIS EVENING. SHOULD NOT AFFECT AREA AIRPORTS. VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL. FRONT TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AROUND 15Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. WINDS TO
THEN BECOME NORTHEAST AFTER 18Z AS UPSLOPE DEVELOPS. CEILINGS TO
LOWER TO AROUND 8000 FEET AGL DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AT KAPA AND KBJC WITH POSSIBLE CEILINGS
AROUND 6000 FEET AGL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS65 KBOU 190241
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
841 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...ISSUED 0845 PM FRI APR 10 2014
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...BUT IT APPEARS NORTHERLY FLOW ON
PLAINS WILL DEVELOP A BIT EARLIER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. RAP HAS
WELL ESTABLISHED LOW NEAR KANSAS BORDER.


&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH A BIT EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL BRING NLY WINDS IN AROUND SUNRISE.
WILL KEEP VCSH...AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH HIGH BASED CUMULUS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS SOUTH PARK INTO THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING CAPES OF
AROUND 100 J/KG ACROSS PARK COUNTY INTO THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. AT THIS TIME...NO CONVECTION INDICATED ON
RADAR. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE
PALMER DIVIDE BY THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR
THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP...WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. DRY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST. ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH
PARK...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. ON SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE MORNING EDGING INTO WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS TROUGH AXIS
ROUGHLY ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA. FAIRLY MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER COLORADO FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD
SEE A GOOD CHANCE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. CAPE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BUT INCREASES DURING THE DAY WITH VALUES AROUND 250
J/KG BY THE EVENING. SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. AIRMASS
TO BE FAIRLY MILD SO SNOW LEVELS TO BE RATHER HIGH...AROUND 10000
FEET AGL. ANY ACCUMULATION TO BE LIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PASSES. ACROSS PLAINS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
MORNING...REACHING DENVER AREA AROUND 15Z. FRONT APPEARS TO
BRIEFLY STALL ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. UPSLOPE DEVELOPS BY THE AFTERNOON
IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. AIRMASS
INITIALLY FAIRLY STABLE AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT...BUT
BECOMES SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS
SHOWING ONLY LIMITED CAPE...WITH VALUES AROUND 250 J/KG ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE INTO LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. VALUES LESS
NORTH OF DENVER. SO BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHER SECTION OF WASHINGTON
COUNTY. POPS TO BE LOWER ELSEWHERE ON THE PLAINS. THERE MAY BE
SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN DOUGLAS INTO ELBERT COUNTY
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAY HELP A FEW OF THE STORMS PRODUCE
BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.
OTHERWISE...RAINFALL TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. AIRMASS TO BE COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAT FRIDAY`S READINGS.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT. THE GFS DOES SEEM TO SUFFER FROM
TOO MUCH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THUS SLOWER TROUGH MOVEMENT...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS THERE WITH
BEST LOW/MID LEVEL FOCUS STILL ADVERTISED IN THAT PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

BY SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH
GENERALLY A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE PUSHING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING...AND
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS TO REDEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE AND PARK
COUNTY.

ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. THIS WILL ACT TO CAP OFF ANY
CONVECTION BUT STILL CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE.

BY TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER AND BOUNDARY LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO DRY AS A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.
THE LATEST MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE
SOUTHWESTERLIES...BUT WINDS SHOULD STILL INCREASE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER FIRE DANGER. WILL ALSO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS GIVEN A POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT
AND LOCAL CONVERGENCE...BUT CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW ANY
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. CAPES ARE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG TOO.

WEDNESDAY MAY FEATURE HIGHER FIRE DANGER AS STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
OCCURS AND WINDS INCREASE IN ALL AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
GREENUP OF FUELS OCCURRING FROM NOW THROUGH THAT TIME WHICH WILL
HELP OFFSET THE WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOWER HUMIDITIES.
MEANWHILE...SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH TROUGH PASSAGE TO OUR NORTH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID
OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION GENERATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR GENERALLY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE
WAKE OF WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. AIRMASS LOOKS RATHER DRY AND STABLE FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL.

AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AIRPORTS...A BIT MORE
NORTHEAST AT KBJC. WINDS EXPECTING TO BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE DRAINAGE PREVAILS BY 04Z. SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE
THIS EVENING. SHOULD NOT AFFECT AREA AIRPORTS. VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL. FRONT TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AROUND 15Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. WINDS TO
THEN BECOME NORTHEAST AFTER 18Z AS UPSLOPE DEVELOPS. CEILINGS TO
LOWER TO AROUND 8000 FEET AGL DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AT KAPA AND KBJC WITH POSSIBLE CEILINGS
AROUND 6000 FEET AGL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS65 KBOU 182136
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
336 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH HIGH BASED CUMULUS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS SOUTH PARK INTO THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING CAPES OF
AROUND 100 J/KG ACROSS PARK COUNTY INTO THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. AT THIS TIME...NO CONVECTION INDICATED ON
RADAR. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE
PALMER DIVIDE BY THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR
THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP...WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. DRY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST. ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH
PARK...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. ON SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE MORNING EDGING INTO WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS TROUGH AXIS
ROUGHLY ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA. FAIRLY MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER COLORADO FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD
SEE A GOOD CHANCE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. CAPE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BUT INCREASES DURING THE DAY WITH VALUES AROUND 250
J/KG BY THE EVENING. SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. AIRMASS
TO BE FAIRLY MILD SO SNOW LEVELS TO BE RATHER HIGH...AROUND 10000
FEET AGL. ANY ACCUMULATION TO BE LIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PASSES. ACROSS PLAINS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
MORNING...REACHING DENVER AREA AROUND 15Z. FRONT APPEARS TO
BRIEFLY STALL ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. UPSLOPE DEVELOPS BY THE AFTERNOON
IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. AIRMASS
INITIALLY FAIRLY STABLE AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT...BUT
BECOMES SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS
SHOWING ONLY LIMITED CAPE...WITH VALUES AROUND 250 J/KG ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE INTO LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. VALUES LESS
NORTH OF DENVER. SO BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHER SECTION OF WASHINGTON
COUNTY. POPS TO BE LOWER ELSEWHERE ON THE PLAINS. THERE MAY BE
SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN DOUGLAS INTO ELBERT COUNTY
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAY HELP A FEW OF THE STORMS PRODUCE
BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.
OTHERWISE...RAINFALL TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. AIRMASS TO BE COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAT FRIDAY`S READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT. THE GFS DOES SEEM TO SUFFER FROM
TOO MUCH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THUS SLOWER TROUGH MOVEMENT...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS THERE WITH
BEST LOW/MID LEVEL FOCUS STILL ADVERTISED IN THAT PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

BY SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH
GENERALLY A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE PUSHING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING...AND
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS TO REDEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE AND PARK
COUNTY.

ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. THIS WILL ACT TO CAP OFF ANY
CONVECTION BUT STILL CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE.

BY TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER AND BOUNDARY LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO DRY AS A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.
THE LATEST MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE
SOUTHWESTERLIES...BUT WINDS SHOULD STILL INCREASE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER FIRE DANGER. WILL ALSO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS GIVEN A POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT
AND LOCAL CONVERGENCE...BUT CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW ANY
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. CAPES ARE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG TOO.

WEDNESDAY MAY FEATURE HIGHER FIRE DANGER AS STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
OCCURS AND WINDS INCREASE IN ALL AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
GREENUP OF FUELS OCCURRING FROM NOW THROUGH THAT TIME WHICH WILL
HELP OFFSET THE WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOWER HUMIDITIES.
MEANWHILE...SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH TROUGH PASSAGE TO OUR NORTH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID
OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION GENERATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR GENERALLY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE
WAKE OF WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. AIRMASS LOOKS RATHER DRY AND STABLE FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AIRPORTS...A BIT MORE
NORTHEAST AT KBJC. WINDS EXPECTING TO BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE DRAINAGE PREVAILS BY 04Z. SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE
THIS EVENING. SHOULD NOT AFFECT AREA AIRPORTS. VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL. FRONT TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AROUND 15Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. WINDS TO
THEN BECOME NORTHEAST AFTER 18Z AS UPSLOPE DEVELOPS. CEILINGS TO
LOWER TO AROUND 8000 FEET AGL DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AT KAPA AND KBJC WITH POSSIBLE CEILINGS
AROUND 6000 FEET AGL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...D-L





000
FXUS65 KBOU 182136
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
336 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH HIGH BASED CUMULUS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS SOUTH PARK INTO THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING CAPES OF
AROUND 100 J/KG ACROSS PARK COUNTY INTO THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. AT THIS TIME...NO CONVECTION INDICATED ON
RADAR. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE
PALMER DIVIDE BY THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR
THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP...WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. DRY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST. ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH
PARK...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. ON SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE MORNING EDGING INTO WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS TROUGH AXIS
ROUGHLY ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA. FAIRLY MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER COLORADO FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD
SEE A GOOD CHANCE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. CAPE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BUT INCREASES DURING THE DAY WITH VALUES AROUND 250
J/KG BY THE EVENING. SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. AIRMASS
TO BE FAIRLY MILD SO SNOW LEVELS TO BE RATHER HIGH...AROUND 10000
FEET AGL. ANY ACCUMULATION TO BE LIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PASSES. ACROSS PLAINS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
MORNING...REACHING DENVER AREA AROUND 15Z. FRONT APPEARS TO
BRIEFLY STALL ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. UPSLOPE DEVELOPS BY THE AFTERNOON
IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. AIRMASS
INITIALLY FAIRLY STABLE AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT...BUT
BECOMES SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS
SHOWING ONLY LIMITED CAPE...WITH VALUES AROUND 250 J/KG ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE INTO LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. VALUES LESS
NORTH OF DENVER. SO BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHER SECTION OF WASHINGTON
COUNTY. POPS TO BE LOWER ELSEWHERE ON THE PLAINS. THERE MAY BE
SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN DOUGLAS INTO ELBERT COUNTY
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAY HELP A FEW OF THE STORMS PRODUCE
BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.
OTHERWISE...RAINFALL TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. AIRMASS TO BE COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAT FRIDAY`S READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT. THE GFS DOES SEEM TO SUFFER FROM
TOO MUCH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THUS SLOWER TROUGH MOVEMENT...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS THERE WITH
BEST LOW/MID LEVEL FOCUS STILL ADVERTISED IN THAT PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

BY SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH
GENERALLY A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE PUSHING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING...AND
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS TO REDEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE AND PARK
COUNTY.

ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. THIS WILL ACT TO CAP OFF ANY
CONVECTION BUT STILL CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE.

BY TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER AND BOUNDARY LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO DRY AS A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.
THE LATEST MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE
SOUTHWESTERLIES...BUT WINDS SHOULD STILL INCREASE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER FIRE DANGER. WILL ALSO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS GIVEN A POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT
AND LOCAL CONVERGENCE...BUT CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW ANY
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. CAPES ARE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG TOO.

WEDNESDAY MAY FEATURE HIGHER FIRE DANGER AS STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
OCCURS AND WINDS INCREASE IN ALL AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
GREENUP OF FUELS OCCURRING FROM NOW THROUGH THAT TIME WHICH WILL
HELP OFFSET THE WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOWER HUMIDITIES.
MEANWHILE...SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH TROUGH PASSAGE TO OUR NORTH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID
OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION GENERATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR GENERALLY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE
WAKE OF WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. AIRMASS LOOKS RATHER DRY AND STABLE FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AIRPORTS...A BIT MORE
NORTHEAST AT KBJC. WINDS EXPECTING TO BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE DRAINAGE PREVAILS BY 04Z. SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE
THIS EVENING. SHOULD NOT AFFECT AREA AIRPORTS. VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL. FRONT TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AROUND 15Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. WINDS TO
THEN BECOME NORTHEAST AFTER 18Z AS UPSLOPE DEVELOPS. CEILINGS TO
LOWER TO AROUND 8000 FEET AGL DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AT KAPA AND KBJC WITH POSSIBLE CEILINGS
AROUND 6000 FEET AGL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...D-L




000
FXUS65 KBOU 181638
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1038 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO COLORADO AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. MODELS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
SOME CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. AS FOR THE
PLAINS...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS STILL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF DENVER AS WELL. SHOWERS THAT
DO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MAINLY HIGH
BASED...WITH LIMITED RAINFALL. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS IN AND NEAR THE ACTIVITY. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR
NORTHEAST COLORADO STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DVLP OVER THE SWRN US TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SWLY.  ABUNDANT
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT.  SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE THIS AFTN
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO WILL MENTION
A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.  OVER NERN CO IT SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE FM 6-8 DEGREES C SO AFTN
HIGHS OVER NERN CO SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

GOOD OVERALL CONSENSUS IN THE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS. THEY
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS IN THE UPPER TROUGH
AND CLOSED 500MB LOW PASSING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE CLOSED LOW AT THE CENTER OF
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE SERN
CALIFORNIA/SRN NEVADA/WRN ARIZONA AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER COLORADO. MODELS ALSO SHOW A WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO NERN COLORADO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...EVENTUALLY UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS NEAR DENVER BY LATE
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SHOULD SEE
NORTHEASTERLY SFC-700MB WINDS OF 10-25KT COVERING MUCH OF THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. BY MID-AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW AN
ELONGATED SFC LOW FORMING ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT
ACROSS...EASTERN DOUGLAS...ELBERT...NORTHERN LINCOLN AND KIT
CARSON COUNTIES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGING ALONG THIS
BNDRY...TOGETHER WITH MODEST CROSS BNDRY SHEAR...SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AND LAYER PW VALUES IN THE 0.65 TO 0.75
INCH RANGE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS...
A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL. NAM AND GFS INDICATE A BULLS EYE OF 0.5 TO 0.9 INCH
RAINFALL OVER SRN DOUGLAS AND SWRN ELBERT COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HINTED AT THIS HAPPENING. ELSEWHERE ON
THE PLAINS RAINFALL FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/T- STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE STEADY
INFLUX OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO
PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES APXMTLY 10-12 DEGS F LOWER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH PERIODS
OF DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD MANAGE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T-STORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SNOW
LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH DURING THE DAY WITH THIS MILD
FLOW...GENERALLY ABOVE 10K FEET. AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH PASSING OVER COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO...AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILLING CLOSED LOW TRACKING
NEWRD ACROSS THE SERN CORNER OF COLORADO. AS THE TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY...COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SEE LESS OF A CHANCE OF T-STORMS ON
SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. BY LATE IN THE DAY
LARGE SCALE ASCENT TURNS TO SUBSIDENCE AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE
AREA AND THE MEAN LAYER FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY. MOST OF THIS
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGS F WARMER THAN THOSE
ON SATURDAY.

MONDAY LOOKS DRIER ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED
WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT. HIGHS SIMILAR
TO THOSE THE DAY BEFORE. ON TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
SURGE UPWARDS TO NEAR RECORD TERRITORY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S A GOOD BET ON THE PLAINS WITH A RELATIVELY STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT SHOULD SEE THE
WILDLAND FIRE DANGER RISE ON THE PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS EVEN THOUGH FUELS ARE BEGINNING TO GREEN UP. ISOLATED HIGH
BASED GUSTY T-STORMS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE IN
THE DAY MAY FURTHER COMPOUND THIS FIRE DANGER. FOR WEDNESDAY...WARM...
DRY AND BREEZY AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING COLORADO
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MAY FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

LIGHT SOUTHERLY BECOMING A MORE SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND KAPA AND
WESTERLY AT KBJC. LATEST RAP CONTINUES TO KEEP WINDS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE HRRR SHOWS WINDS BECOMING
WESTERLY. THE NAM STILL INDICATING A SOUTH SOUTHWEST COMPONENT.
WILL INDICATE MORE OF A SOUTH SOUTHEAST COMPONENT THROUGH
20Z...THEN TREND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...CURRENT TAF
TRENDS SEEM REASONABLE. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING...
SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE AREA AIRPORTS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF
DENVER. POSSIBLE CEILINGS AS LOW AS 6000 FEET AGL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...D-L





000
FXUS65 KBOU 181638
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1038 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO COLORADO AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. MODELS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
SOME CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. AS FOR THE
PLAINS...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS STILL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF DENVER AS WELL. SHOWERS THAT
DO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MAINLY HIGH
BASED...WITH LIMITED RAINFALL. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS IN AND NEAR THE ACTIVITY. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR
NORTHEAST COLORADO STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DVLP OVER THE SWRN US TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SWLY.  ABUNDANT
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT.  SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE THIS AFTN
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO WILL MENTION
A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.  OVER NERN CO IT SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE FM 6-8 DEGREES C SO AFTN
HIGHS OVER NERN CO SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

GOOD OVERALL CONSENSUS IN THE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS. THEY
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS IN THE UPPER TROUGH
AND CLOSED 500MB LOW PASSING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE CLOSED LOW AT THE CENTER OF
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE SERN
CALIFORNIA/SRN NEVADA/WRN ARIZONA AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER COLORADO. MODELS ALSO SHOW A WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO NERN COLORADO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...EVENTUALLY UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS NEAR DENVER BY LATE
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SHOULD SEE
NORTHEASTERLY SFC-700MB WINDS OF 10-25KT COVERING MUCH OF THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. BY MID-AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW AN
ELONGATED SFC LOW FORMING ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT
ACROSS...EASTERN DOUGLAS...ELBERT...NORTHERN LINCOLN AND KIT
CARSON COUNTIES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGING ALONG THIS
BNDRY...TOGETHER WITH MODEST CROSS BNDRY SHEAR...SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AND LAYER PW VALUES IN THE 0.65 TO 0.75
INCH RANGE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS...
A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL. NAM AND GFS INDICATE A BULLS EYE OF 0.5 TO 0.9 INCH
RAINFALL OVER SRN DOUGLAS AND SWRN ELBERT COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HINTED AT THIS HAPPENING. ELSEWHERE ON
THE PLAINS RAINFALL FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/T- STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE STEADY
INFLUX OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO
PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES APXMTLY 10-12 DEGS F LOWER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH PERIODS
OF DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD MANAGE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T-STORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SNOW
LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH DURING THE DAY WITH THIS MILD
FLOW...GENERALLY ABOVE 10K FEET. AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH PASSING OVER COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO...AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILLING CLOSED LOW TRACKING
NEWRD ACROSS THE SERN CORNER OF COLORADO. AS THE TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY...COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SEE LESS OF A CHANCE OF T-STORMS ON
SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. BY LATE IN THE DAY
LARGE SCALE ASCENT TURNS TO SUBSIDENCE AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE
AREA AND THE MEAN LAYER FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY. MOST OF THIS
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGS F WARMER THAN THOSE
ON SATURDAY.

MONDAY LOOKS DRIER ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED
WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT. HIGHS SIMILAR
TO THOSE THE DAY BEFORE. ON TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
SURGE UPWARDS TO NEAR RECORD TERRITORY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S A GOOD BET ON THE PLAINS WITH A RELATIVELY STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT SHOULD SEE THE
WILDLAND FIRE DANGER RISE ON THE PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS EVEN THOUGH FUELS ARE BEGINNING TO GREEN UP. ISOLATED HIGH
BASED GUSTY T-STORMS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE IN
THE DAY MAY FURTHER COMPOUND THIS FIRE DANGER. FOR WEDNESDAY...WARM...
DRY AND BREEZY AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING COLORADO
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MAY FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

LIGHT SOUTHERLY BECOMING A MORE SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND KAPA AND
WESTERLY AT KBJC. LATEST RAP CONTINUES TO KEEP WINDS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE HRRR SHOWS WINDS BECOMING
WESTERLY. THE NAM STILL INDICATING A SOUTH SOUTHWEST COMPONENT.
WILL INDICATE MORE OF A SOUTH SOUTHEAST COMPONENT THROUGH
20Z...THEN TREND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...CURRENT TAF
TRENDS SEEM REASONABLE. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING...
SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE AREA AIRPORTS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF
DENVER. POSSIBLE CEILINGS AS LOW AS 6000 FEET AGL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...D-L




000
FXUS65 KBOU 180952
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
352 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DVLP OVER THE SWRN US TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SWLY.  ABUNDANT
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT.  SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE THIS AFTN
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO WILL MENTION
A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.  OVER NERN CO IT SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE FM 6-8 DEGREES C SO AFTN
HIGHS OVER NERN CO SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

GOOD OVERALL CONSENSUS IN THE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS. THEY
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS IN THE UPPER TROUGH
AND CLOSED 500MB LOW PASSING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE CLOSED LOW AT THE CENTER OF
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE SERN
CALIFORNIA/SRN NEVADA/WRN ARIZONA AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER COLORADO. MODELS ALSO SHOW A WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO NERN COLORADO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...EVENTUALLY UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS NEAR DENVER BY LATE
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SHOULD SEE
NORTHEASTERLY SFC-700MB WINDS OF 10-25KT COVERING MUCH OF THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. BY MID-AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW AN
ELONGATED SFC LOW FORMING ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT
ACROSS...EASTERN DOUGLAS...ELBERT...NORTHERN LINCOLN AND KIT
CARSON COUNTIES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGING ALONG THIS
BNDRY...TOGETHER WITH MODEST CROSS BNDRY SHEAR...SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AND LAYER PW VALUES IN THE 0.65 TO 0.75
INCH RANGE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS...
A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL. NAM AND GFS INDICATE A BULLS EYE OF 0.5 TO 0.9 INCH
RAINFALL OVER SRN DOUGLAS AND SWRN ELBERT COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HINTED AT THIS HAPPENING. ELSEWHERE ON
THE PLAINS RAINFALL FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/T- STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE STEADY
INFLUX OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO
PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES APXMTLY 10-12 DEGS F LOWER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH PERIODS
OF DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD MANAGE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T-STORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SNOW
LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH DURING THE DAY WITH THIS MILD
FLOW...GENERALLY ABOVE 10K FEET. AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH PASSING OVER COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO...AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILLING CLOSED LOW TRACKING
NEWRD ACROSS THE SERN CORNER OF COLORADO. AS THE TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY...COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SEE LESS OF A CHANCE OF T-STORMS ON
SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. BY LATE IN THE DAY
LARGE SCALE ASCENT TURNS TO SUBSIDENCE AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE
AREA AND THE MEAN LAYER FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY. MOST OF THIS
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGS F WARMER THAN THOSE
ON SATURDAY.

MONDAY LOOKS DRIER ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED
WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT. HIGHS SIMILAR
TO THOSE THE DAY BEFORE. ON TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
SURGE UPWARDS TO NEAR RECORD TERRITORY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S A GOOD BET ON THE PLAINS WITH A RELATIVELY STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT SHOULD SEE THE
WILDLAND FIRE DANGER RISE ON THE PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS EVEN THOUGH FUELS ARE BEGINNING TO GREEN UP. ISOLATED HIGH
BASED GUSTY T-STORMS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE IN
THE DAY MAY FURTHER COMPOUND THIS FIRE DANGER. FOR WEDNESDAY...WARM...
DRY AND BREEZY AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING COLORADO
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MAY FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE SLY HOWEVER BY MID
AFTN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE HRRR AND RAP. THE HRRR
ALLOWS FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WLY BY 20Z WHILE THE RAP KEEPS
THEM SSE THRU THE AFTN. THE NAM HAS MORE OF A SSW COMPONENT THRU
THE AFTN. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP THEM MORE SSW AS IN PREVIOUS
TAF. THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OVER THE PLAMER
DIVIDE AND SRN FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING HOWEVER WILL NOT HAVE THEM
AFFECTING THE AIRPORT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 180952
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
352 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DVLP OVER THE SWRN US TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SWLY.  ABUNDANT
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT.  SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE THIS AFTN
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO WILL MENTION
A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.  OVER NERN CO IT SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE FM 6-8 DEGREES C SO AFTN
HIGHS OVER NERN CO SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

GOOD OVERALL CONSENSUS IN THE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS. THEY
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS IN THE UPPER TROUGH
AND CLOSED 500MB LOW PASSING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE CLOSED LOW AT THE CENTER OF
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE SERN
CALIFORNIA/SRN NEVADA/WRN ARIZONA AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER COLORADO. MODELS ALSO SHOW A WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO NERN COLORADO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...EVENTUALLY UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS NEAR DENVER BY LATE
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SHOULD SEE
NORTHEASTERLY SFC-700MB WINDS OF 10-25KT COVERING MUCH OF THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. BY MID-AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW AN
ELONGATED SFC LOW FORMING ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT
ACROSS...EASTERN DOUGLAS...ELBERT...NORTHERN LINCOLN AND KIT
CARSON COUNTIES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGING ALONG THIS
BNDRY...TOGETHER WITH MODEST CROSS BNDRY SHEAR...SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AND LAYER PW VALUES IN THE 0.65 TO 0.75
INCH RANGE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS...
A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL. NAM AND GFS INDICATE A BULLS EYE OF 0.5 TO 0.9 INCH
RAINFALL OVER SRN DOUGLAS AND SWRN ELBERT COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HINTED AT THIS HAPPENING. ELSEWHERE ON
THE PLAINS RAINFALL FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/T- STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE STEADY
INFLUX OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO
PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES APXMTLY 10-12 DEGS F LOWER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH PERIODS
OF DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD MANAGE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T-STORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SNOW
LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH DURING THE DAY WITH THIS MILD
FLOW...GENERALLY ABOVE 10K FEET. AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH PASSING OVER COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO...AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILLING CLOSED LOW TRACKING
NEWRD ACROSS THE SERN CORNER OF COLORADO. AS THE TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY...COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SEE LESS OF A CHANCE OF T-STORMS ON
SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. BY LATE IN THE DAY
LARGE SCALE ASCENT TURNS TO SUBSIDENCE AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE
AREA AND THE MEAN LAYER FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY. MOST OF THIS
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGS F WARMER THAN THOSE
ON SATURDAY.

MONDAY LOOKS DRIER ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED
WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT. HIGHS SIMILAR
TO THOSE THE DAY BEFORE. ON TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
SURGE UPWARDS TO NEAR RECORD TERRITORY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S A GOOD BET ON THE PLAINS WITH A RELATIVELY STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT SHOULD SEE THE
WILDLAND FIRE DANGER RISE ON THE PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS EVEN THOUGH FUELS ARE BEGINNING TO GREEN UP. ISOLATED HIGH
BASED GUSTY T-STORMS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE IN
THE DAY MAY FURTHER COMPOUND THIS FIRE DANGER. FOR WEDNESDAY...WARM...
DRY AND BREEZY AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING COLORADO
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MAY FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE SLY HOWEVER BY MID
AFTN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE HRRR AND RAP. THE HRRR
ALLOWS FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WLY BY 20Z WHILE THE RAP KEEPS
THEM SSE THRU THE AFTN. THE NAM HAS MORE OF A SSW COMPONENT THRU
THE AFTN. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP THEM MORE SSW AS IN PREVIOUS
TAF. THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OVER THE PLAMER
DIVIDE AND SRN FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING HOWEVER WILL NOT HAVE THEM
AFFECTING THE AIRPORT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...RPK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 180300
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
900 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

THERE IS A BIT OF LEE WAVE CLOUDINESS OVER THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. THERE IS LITTLE TO CHANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO COLORADO FROM THE GREAT BASIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW STILL OVER REGION WITH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS A BIT GUSTY FAR
EASTERN PLAINS. AIRMASS GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE BUT ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME CUMULUS TO FORM IN A CONVERGENCE AREA
SOUTHEAST OF DENVER. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO COLORADO
TONIGHT WITH AXIS ALONG WESTERN COLORADO BORDER. WINDS TO DECREASE
ACROSS PLAINS AS SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WEAKENS. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
TONIGHT...SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. ON FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE TO BE OVER COLORADO
WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE. SURFACE LEE TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
HELP WITH WARMUP...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. IT
SHOULD BE RATHER BALMY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY DESPITE PERSISTENT SNOW
PACK...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE 50S. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE SOME MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATE
AFTERNOON. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY TO
GENERATE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS ACROSS THE PARK AND GORE RANGES
OF WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY AND SOUTH PARK. THE STABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

FRIDAY EVENING WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW IT ALL ABOVE 600 MB AND MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. THEREFORE...ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THAT TIME WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND CAPES OF 100-500 J/KG. HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD
OCCUR IN MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BY
SUNDAY...MOISTURE DECREASES A LITTLE BUT SURFACE HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

ON MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES...ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...TO MOST AREAS. UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE BUT LONGER DAYS AND STRONGER HEATING DOES
SUPPORT A LOW THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. THE AIRMASS
SHOULD DRY ENOUGH BY TUESDAY WITH STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER...AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM. A FEW
SPOTS ON THE PLAINS COULD REACH 80F FOR HIGHS. FIRE DANGER WILL
INCREASE BUT THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL GREENUP OF GRASSES THROUGH
THAT TIME.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ANOTHER HIGHER FIRE DANGER DAY COULD
OCCUR WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGER WEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES IN
ADVANCE OF TROUGH...BUT THEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY. COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TRACK OF UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 840 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

DRAINAGE WINDS ARE ALREADY GOING. THEY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
THE NORM DUE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE NO CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 180300
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
900 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

THERE IS A BIT OF LEE WAVE CLOUDINESS OVER THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. THERE IS LITTLE TO CHANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO COLORADO FROM THE GREAT BASIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW STILL OVER REGION WITH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS A BIT GUSTY FAR
EASTERN PLAINS. AIRMASS GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE BUT ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME CUMULUS TO FORM IN A CONVERGENCE AREA
SOUTHEAST OF DENVER. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO COLORADO
TONIGHT WITH AXIS ALONG WESTERN COLORADO BORDER. WINDS TO DECREASE
ACROSS PLAINS AS SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WEAKENS. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
TONIGHT...SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. ON FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE TO BE OVER COLORADO
WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE. SURFACE LEE TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
HELP WITH WARMUP...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. IT
SHOULD BE RATHER BALMY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY DESPITE PERSISTENT SNOW
PACK...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE 50S. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE SOME MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATE
AFTERNOON. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY TO
GENERATE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS ACROSS THE PARK AND GORE RANGES
OF WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY AND SOUTH PARK. THE STABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

FRIDAY EVENING WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW IT ALL ABOVE 600 MB AND MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. THEREFORE...ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THAT TIME WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND CAPES OF 100-500 J/KG. HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD
OCCUR IN MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BY
SUNDAY...MOISTURE DECREASES A LITTLE BUT SURFACE HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

ON MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES...ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...TO MOST AREAS. UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE BUT LONGER DAYS AND STRONGER HEATING DOES
SUPPORT A LOW THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. THE AIRMASS
SHOULD DRY ENOUGH BY TUESDAY WITH STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER...AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM. A FEW
SPOTS ON THE PLAINS COULD REACH 80F FOR HIGHS. FIRE DANGER WILL
INCREASE BUT THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL GREENUP OF GRASSES THROUGH
THAT TIME.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ANOTHER HIGHER FIRE DANGER DAY COULD
OCCUR WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGER WEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES IN
ADVANCE OF TROUGH...BUT THEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY. COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TRACK OF UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 840 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

DRAINAGE WINDS ARE ALREADY GOING. THEY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
THE NORM DUE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE NO CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RJK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 172112
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
312 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO COLORADO FROM THE GREAT BASIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW STILL OVER REGION WITH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS A BIT GUSTY FAR
EASTERN PLAINS. AIRMASS GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE BUT ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME CUMULUS TO FORM IN A CONVERGENCE AREA
SOUTHEAST OF DENVER. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO COLORADO
TONIGHT WITH AXIS ALONG WESTERN COLORADO BORDER. WINDS TO DECREASE
ACROSS PLAINS AS SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WEAKENS. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
TONIGHT...SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. ON FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE TO BE OVER COLORADO
WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE. SURFACE LEE TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
HELP WITH WARMUP...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. IT
SHOULD BE RATHER BALMY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY DESPITE PERSISTENT SNOW
PACK...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE 50S. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE SOME MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATE
AFTERNOON. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY TO
GENERATE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS ACROSS THE PARK AND GORE RANGES
OF WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY AND SOUTH PARK. THE STABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

FRIDAY EVENING WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW IT ALL ABOVE 600 MB AND MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. THEREFORE...ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THAT TIME WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND CAPES OF 100-500 J/KG. HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD
OCCUR IN MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BY
SUNDAY...MOISTURE DECREASES A LITTLE BUT SURFACE HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

ON MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES...ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...TO MOST AREAS. UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE BUT LONGER DAYS AND STRONGER HEATING DOES
SUPPORT A LOW THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. THE AIRMASS
SHOULD DRY ENOUGH BY TUESDAY WITH STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER...AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM. A FEW
SPOTS ON THE PLAINS COULD REACH 80F FOR HIGHS. FIRE DANGER WILL
INCREASE BUT THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL GREENUP OF GRASSES THROUGH
THAT TIME.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ANOTHER HIGHER FIRE DANGER DAY COULD
OCCUR WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGER WEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES IN
ADVANCE OF TROUGH...BUT THEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY. COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TRACK OF UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

WINDS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS...WITH SOME RECENT
GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT KAPA. WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
EVENING...WITH DRAINAGE DEVELOPING BY 03Z. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 12000 FEET
AGL. ON FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL...MAY BECOME A BIT
MORE SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND KAPA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
MAY BE SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS FORMING ONCE AGAIN SOUTHEAST OF
DIA. SHOULD NOT BE ANY ILS IMPACTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...D-L




000
FXUS65 KBOU 172112
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
312 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO COLORADO FROM THE GREAT BASIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW STILL OVER REGION WITH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS A BIT GUSTY FAR
EASTERN PLAINS. AIRMASS GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE BUT ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME CUMULUS TO FORM IN A CONVERGENCE AREA
SOUTHEAST OF DENVER. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO COLORADO
TONIGHT WITH AXIS ALONG WESTERN COLORADO BORDER. WINDS TO DECREASE
ACROSS PLAINS AS SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WEAKENS. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
TONIGHT...SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. ON FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE TO BE OVER COLORADO
WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE. SURFACE LEE TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
HELP WITH WARMUP...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. IT
SHOULD BE RATHER BALMY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY DESPITE PERSISTENT SNOW
PACK...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE 50S. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE SOME MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATE
AFTERNOON. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY TO
GENERATE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS ACROSS THE PARK AND GORE RANGES
OF WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY AND SOUTH PARK. THE STABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

FRIDAY EVENING WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW IT ALL ABOVE 600 MB AND MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. THEREFORE...ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THAT TIME WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND CAPES OF 100-500 J/KG. HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD
OCCUR IN MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BY
SUNDAY...MOISTURE DECREASES A LITTLE BUT SURFACE HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

ON MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES...ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...TO MOST AREAS. UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE BUT LONGER DAYS AND STRONGER HEATING DOES
SUPPORT A LOW THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. THE AIRMASS
SHOULD DRY ENOUGH BY TUESDAY WITH STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER...AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM. A FEW
SPOTS ON THE PLAINS COULD REACH 80F FOR HIGHS. FIRE DANGER WILL
INCREASE BUT THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL GREENUP OF GRASSES THROUGH
THAT TIME.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ANOTHER HIGHER FIRE DANGER DAY COULD
OCCUR WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGER WEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES IN
ADVANCE OF TROUGH...BUT THEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY. COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TRACK OF UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

WINDS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS...WITH SOME RECENT
GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT KAPA. WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
EVENING...WITH DRAINAGE DEVELOPING BY 03Z. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 12000 FEET
AGL. ON FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL...MAY BECOME A BIT
MORE SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND KAPA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
MAY BE SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS FORMING ONCE AGAIN SOUTHEAST OF
DIA. SHOULD NOT BE ANY ILS IMPACTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...D-L





000
FXUS65 KBOU 171646
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1046 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

SATELLITE INDICATING STRATUS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER NEAR WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA AND ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS INTO LINCOLN COUNTY.
BASED ON WEB CAMS AND SURFACE OBS...FOG CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE.
STRATUS GRADUALLY ERODING ALONG THE EDGES...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. AIRMASS WILL BE TOO STABLE WITH
LITTLE OR NO LIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS TIME IS
PRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EAST...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. ONLY LOCATION SEEING
PRECIPITATION RIGHT NOW IN THE FORECAST AREA IS SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY. BY SUNRISE...THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE WAVE
TODAY. MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER JUST EXPECT AN INCREASE CLOUDS COVER. SUB
CLOUD LAYER WILL BE DRY AND LIFT WILL BE WEAK. WILL NOT MENTION AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR LOWS ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS UPSTREAM OVER CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT
IN STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER COLORADO. THIS SENDS THE STORM
TRACK WELL NORTHWARD UP ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.
TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS CHARTS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY EVEN WITH THE DEEP
SNOWPACK...TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S. THE SPRING THAW/MUD SEASON IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
IS NOT TOO FAR OFF NOW. BY FRIDAY EVENING...MODELS SHOW THE
WESTERN TROUGH MARCHING EASTWARD WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER SWRN
ARIZONA. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT IN FRONT OF THIS TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS COULD FUEL A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS AND
A SCATTERING OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN HIGH OVERNIGHT WITH THE MILD
TEMPERATURES.

FOR SATURDAY MODELS SHOW THIS UPRIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING
ITS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGION
MOUNTAIN REGION...WITH THE DENVER/BOULDER CWA ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ALSO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING EARLY SATURDAY AND UP AGAINST THE FRONT
RANGE BY LATE THAT MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY PW VALUES GRADUALLY
RISE AS SFC DEWPOINTS ON THE PLAINS RISE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. BY
AFTERNOON...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST SFC BASED CAPES IN
THE AREA...SUFFICIENT TO FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS.
MODEL QPF ON SATURDAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. HOWEVER SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GIVE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 A BETTER CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES 10-14 DEGS F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE
IN LARGE PART TO GREATER CLOUD COVER.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...TROUGH AND ITS MOISTURE AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA RESULTING IN A 3-6 DEG F
WARMUP AND A RETURN TO MORE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. LATE DAY HEATING
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY ONCE AGAIN BUBBLE UP
INTO A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/T-SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE LIGHT. BY MONDAY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN MIGRATES
EASTWARD OVER THE REGION RETURNING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10
DEGS ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY AND AS MUCH AS 15 DEGS F ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY. A WARM SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS WILL HELP. OTHER THAN A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THE HIGH
COUNTRY...BOTH DAYS LOOK DRY. BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT
DIP IN TEMPERATURE WITH HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO FALL AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SWINGING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY ON THE PLAINS...BUT THE HIGH COUNTRY
COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK CYCLONE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF DENVER. WINDS TRYING TO GO CLOCKWISE TO THE
NORTHWEST...THOUGH STILL A BIT SOUTHWEST. WINDS MAY GO NORTHWEST
FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE TRENDING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 20Z AS NOTED
BY CURRENT TAFS. WILL MAINTAIN THIS TREND FOR THE UPCOMING TAF
ISSUANCE. WINDS MAY GO SOUTHEAST FOR A SHORT TIME AT KDEN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DRAINAGE OCCURS THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY...MAY BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND
KAPA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR TO CONTINUE WITH UNLIMITED
CEILINGS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...D-L




000
FXUS65 KBOU 171646
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1046 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

SATELLITE INDICATING STRATUS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER NEAR WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA AND ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS INTO LINCOLN COUNTY.
BASED ON WEB CAMS AND SURFACE OBS...FOG CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE.
STRATUS GRADUALLY ERODING ALONG THE EDGES...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. AIRMASS WILL BE TOO STABLE WITH
LITTLE OR NO LIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS TIME IS
PRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EAST...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. ONLY LOCATION SEEING
PRECIPITATION RIGHT NOW IN THE FORECAST AREA IS SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY. BY SUNRISE...THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE WAVE
TODAY. MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER JUST EXPECT AN INCREASE CLOUDS COVER. SUB
CLOUD LAYER WILL BE DRY AND LIFT WILL BE WEAK. WILL NOT MENTION AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR LOWS ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS UPSTREAM OVER CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT
IN STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER COLORADO. THIS SENDS THE STORM
TRACK WELL NORTHWARD UP ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.
TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS CHARTS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY EVEN WITH THE DEEP
SNOWPACK...TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S. THE SPRING THAW/MUD SEASON IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
IS NOT TOO FAR OFF NOW. BY FRIDAY EVENING...MODELS SHOW THE
WESTERN TROUGH MARCHING EASTWARD WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER SWRN
ARIZONA. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT IN FRONT OF THIS TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS COULD FUEL A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS AND
A SCATTERING OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN HIGH OVERNIGHT WITH THE MILD
TEMPERATURES.

FOR SATURDAY MODELS SHOW THIS UPRIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING
ITS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGION
MOUNTAIN REGION...WITH THE DENVER/BOULDER CWA ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ALSO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING EARLY SATURDAY AND UP AGAINST THE FRONT
RANGE BY LATE THAT MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY PW VALUES GRADUALLY
RISE AS SFC DEWPOINTS ON THE PLAINS RISE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. BY
AFTERNOON...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST SFC BASED CAPES IN
THE AREA...SUFFICIENT TO FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS.
MODEL QPF ON SATURDAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. HOWEVER SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GIVE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 A BETTER CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES 10-14 DEGS F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE
IN LARGE PART TO GREATER CLOUD COVER.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...TROUGH AND ITS MOISTURE AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA RESULTING IN A 3-6 DEG F
WARMUP AND A RETURN TO MORE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. LATE DAY HEATING
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY ONCE AGAIN BUBBLE UP
INTO A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/T-SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE LIGHT. BY MONDAY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN MIGRATES
EASTWARD OVER THE REGION RETURNING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10
DEGS ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY AND AS MUCH AS 15 DEGS F ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY. A WARM SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS WILL HELP. OTHER THAN A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THE HIGH
COUNTRY...BOTH DAYS LOOK DRY. BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT
DIP IN TEMPERATURE WITH HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO FALL AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SWINGING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY ON THE PLAINS...BUT THE HIGH COUNTRY
COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK CYCLONE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF DENVER. WINDS TRYING TO GO CLOCKWISE TO THE
NORTHWEST...THOUGH STILL A BIT SOUTHWEST. WINDS MAY GO NORTHWEST
FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE TRENDING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 20Z AS NOTED
BY CURRENT TAFS. WILL MAINTAIN THIS TREND FOR THE UPCOMING TAF
ISSUANCE. WINDS MAY GO SOUTHEAST FOR A SHORT TIME AT KDEN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DRAINAGE OCCURS THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY...MAY BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND
KAPA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR TO CONTINUE WITH UNLIMITED
CEILINGS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...D-L





000
FXUS65 KBOU 171011
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS TIME IS
PRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EAST...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. ONLY LOCATION SEEING
PRECIPITATION RIGHT NOW IN THE FORECAST AREA IS SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY. BY SUNRISE...THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE WAVE
TODAY. MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER JUST EXPECT AN INCREASE CLOUDS COVER. SUB
CLOUD LAYER WILL BE DRY AND LIFT WILL BE WEAK. WILL NOT MENTION AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR LOWS ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS UPSTREAM OVER CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY
LEADS TO STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER COLORADO CAUSING THE STORM TRACK
TO BOW NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPERATURE AND
THICKNESS CHARTS SUPPORT GOING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. EVEN WITH THE DEEP SNOWPACK...HIGH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE SPRING
THAW/MUD SEASON IN THE HIGH COUNTRY NOT FAR OFF NOW. BY FRIDAY
EVENING MODELS OVERALL SHOW THE WESTERN TROUGH MARCHING EASTWARD...
WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER SWRN ARIZONA ALONG THE WAY. MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
FUELING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS AND A SCATTERING OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVEL
WILL REMAIN HIGH SO MOST OF THE SNOWFALL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO PASS
LEVEL.

FOR SATURDAY MODELS SHOW THIS UPRIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING
ITS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGION
MOUNTAIN REGION WITH THE DENVER/BOULDER CWA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ALSO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
OUT OF WYOMING EARLY ON SATURDAY WITH ITS PUSHING UP AGAINST THE
FRONT RANGE BY LATE IN THE MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY PW VALUES
GRADUALLY RISE AND SFC DEWPOINTS ON THE PLAINS RISING WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW. BY AFTERNOON...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST SFC BASED CAPE
IN THE AREA...ENOUGH TO FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS. MODEL
QPF ON SATURDAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH. ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR A SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES 10-14 DEGS F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE IN LARGE
PART TO GREATER CLOUD COVER.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THIS TROUGH WITH ITS MOISTURE AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A 3-6DEG F WARMUP AND A RETURN TO MORE SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...LATE DAY HEATING AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ONCE
AGAIN BUBBLE UP IN THE A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/T-
SHOWERS. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE LIGHT. GOING INTO THE
MONDAY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
MIGRATES EASTWARD OVER THE REGION RETURNING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGS ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY AND AS MUCH AS 15 DEGS F ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY WITH A WARMING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EAST OF
THE MTNS. OTHER THAN A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THE HIGH COUNTRY...
BOTH DAYS LOOK DRY. BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURE WITH HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO FALL AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
TROUGH SWINGING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR A SCATTERING OF LATE DAY SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

JUST EXPECT SCATTERED MID AND HIGHS CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY
CEILINGS WILL BE ABOVE 10000 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LIGHT AFTER 15Z. SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS LOW BECAUSE SOME MODELS SHOW A DENVER CYCLONE FORMING.
IF A CYCLONE FORMS...WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY
COMPONENT AT KDEN AND KBJC.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 171011 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTEDD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS TIME IS
PRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EAST...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. ONLY LOCATION SEEING
PRECIPITATION RIGHT NOW IN THE FORECAST AREA IS SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY. BY SUNRISE...THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE WAVE
TODAY. MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER JUST EXPECT AN INCREASE CLOUDS COVER. SUB
CLOUD LAYER WILL BE DRY AND LIFT WILL BE WEAK. WILL NOT MENTION AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR LOWS ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS UPSTREAM OVER CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT
IN STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER COLORADO. THIS SENDS THE STORM
TRACK WELL NORTHWARD UP ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.
TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS CHARTS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY EVEN WITH THE DEEP
SNOWPACK...TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S. THE SPRING THAW/MUD SEASON IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
IS NOT TOO FAR OFF NOW. BY FRIDAY EVENING...MODELS SHOW THE
WESTERN TROUGH MARCHING EASTWARD WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER SWRN
ARIZONA. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT IN FRONT OF THIS TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS COULD FUEL A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS AND
A SCATTERING OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN HIGH OVERNIGHT WITH THE MILD
TEMPERATURES.

FOR SATURDAY MODELS SHOW THIS UPRIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING
ITS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGION
MOUNTAIN REGION...WITH THE DENVER/BOULDER CWA ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ALSO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING EARLY SATURDAY AND UP AGAINST THE FRONT
RANGE BY LATE THAT MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY PW VALUES GRADUALLY
RISE AS SFC DEWPOINTS ON THE PLAINS RISE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. BY
AFTERNOON...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST SFC BASED CAPES IN
THE AREA...SUFFICIENT TO FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS.
MODEL QPF ON SATURDAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. HOWEVER SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GIVE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 A BETTER CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES 10-14 DEGS F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE
IN LARGE PART TO GREATER CLOUD COVER.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...TROUGH AND ITS MOISTURE AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA RESULTING IN A 3-6 DEG F
WARMUP AND A RETURN TO MORE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. LATE DAY HEATING
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY ONCE AGAIN BUBBLE UP
INTO A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/T-SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE LIGHT. BY MONDAY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN MIGRATES
EASTWARD OVER THE REGION RETURNING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10
DEGS ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY AND AS MUCH AS 15 DEGS F ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY. A WARM SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS WILL HELP. OTHER THAN A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THE HIGH
COUNTRY...BOTH DAYS LOOK DRY. BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT
DIP IN TEMPERATURE WITH HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO FALL AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SWINGING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY ON THE PLAINS...BUT THE HIGH COUNTRY
COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

JUST EXPECT SCATTERED MID AND HIGHS CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY
CEILINGS WILL BE ABOVE 10000 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LIGHT AFTER 15Z. SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS LOW BECAUSE SOME MODELS SHOW A DENVER CYCLONE FORMING.
IF A CYCLONE FORMS...WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY
COMPONENT AT KDEN AND KBJC.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 171011 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTEDD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS TIME IS
PRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EAST...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. ONLY LOCATION SEEING
PRECIPITATION RIGHT NOW IN THE FORECAST AREA IS SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY. BY SUNRISE...THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE WAVE
TODAY. MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER JUST EXPECT AN INCREASE CLOUDS COVER. SUB
CLOUD LAYER WILL BE DRY AND LIFT WILL BE WEAK. WILL NOT MENTION AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR LOWS ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS UPSTREAM OVER CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT
IN STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER COLORADO. THIS SENDS THE STORM
TRACK WELL NORTHWARD UP ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.
TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS CHARTS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY EVEN WITH THE DEEP
SNOWPACK...TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S. THE SPRING THAW/MUD SEASON IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
IS NOT TOO FAR OFF NOW. BY FRIDAY EVENING...MODELS SHOW THE
WESTERN TROUGH MARCHING EASTWARD WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER SWRN
ARIZONA. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT IN FRONT OF THIS TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS COULD FUEL A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS AND
A SCATTERING OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN HIGH OVERNIGHT WITH THE MILD
TEMPERATURES.

FOR SATURDAY MODELS SHOW THIS UPRIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING
ITS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGION
MOUNTAIN REGION...WITH THE DENVER/BOULDER CWA ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ALSO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING EARLY SATURDAY AND UP AGAINST THE FRONT
RANGE BY LATE THAT MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY PW VALUES GRADUALLY
RISE AS SFC DEWPOINTS ON THE PLAINS RISE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. BY
AFTERNOON...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST SFC BASED CAPES IN
THE AREA...SUFFICIENT TO FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS.
MODEL QPF ON SATURDAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. HOWEVER SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GIVE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 A BETTER CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES 10-14 DEGS F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE
IN LARGE PART TO GREATER CLOUD COVER.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...TROUGH AND ITS MOISTURE AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA RESULTING IN A 3-6 DEG F
WARMUP AND A RETURN TO MORE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. LATE DAY HEATING
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY ONCE AGAIN BUBBLE UP
INTO A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/T-SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE LIGHT. BY MONDAY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN MIGRATES
EASTWARD OVER THE REGION RETURNING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10
DEGS ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY AND AS MUCH AS 15 DEGS F ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY. A WARM SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS WILL HELP. OTHER THAN A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THE HIGH
COUNTRY...BOTH DAYS LOOK DRY. BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT
DIP IN TEMPERATURE WITH HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO FALL AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SWINGING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY ON THE PLAINS...BUT THE HIGH COUNTRY
COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

JUST EXPECT SCATTERED MID AND HIGHS CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY
CEILINGS WILL BE ABOVE 10000 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LIGHT AFTER 15Z. SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS LOW BECAUSE SOME MODELS SHOW A DENVER CYCLONE FORMING.
IF A CYCLONE FORMS...WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY
COMPONENT AT KDEN AND KBJC.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 171011
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS TIME IS
PRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EAST...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. ONLY LOCATION SEEING
PRECIPITATION RIGHT NOW IN THE FORECAST AREA IS SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY. BY SUNRISE...THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE WAVE
TODAY. MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER JUST EXPECT AN INCREASE CLOUDS COVER. SUB
CLOUD LAYER WILL BE DRY AND LIFT WILL BE WEAK. WILL NOT MENTION AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR LOWS ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS UPSTREAM OVER CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY
LEADS TO STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER COLORADO CAUSING THE STORM TRACK
TO BOW NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPERATURE AND
THICKNESS CHARTS SUPPORT GOING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. EVEN WITH THE DEEP SNOWPACK...HIGH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE SPRING
THAW/MUD SEASON IN THE HIGH COUNTRY NOT FAR OFF NOW. BY FRIDAY
EVENING MODELS OVERALL SHOW THE WESTERN TROUGH MARCHING EASTWARD...
WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER SWRN ARIZONA ALONG THE WAY. MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
FUELING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS AND A SCATTERING OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVEL
WILL REMAIN HIGH SO MOST OF THE SNOWFALL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO PASS
LEVEL.

FOR SATURDAY MODELS SHOW THIS UPRIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING
ITS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGION
MOUNTAIN REGION WITH THE DENVER/BOULDER CWA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ALSO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
OUT OF WYOMING EARLY ON SATURDAY WITH ITS PUSHING UP AGAINST THE
FRONT RANGE BY LATE IN THE MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY PW VALUES
GRADUALLY RISE AND SFC DEWPOINTS ON THE PLAINS RISING WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW. BY AFTERNOON...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST SFC BASED CAPE
IN THE AREA...ENOUGH TO FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS. MODEL
QPF ON SATURDAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH. ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR A SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES 10-14 DEGS F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE IN LARGE
PART TO GREATER CLOUD COVER.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THIS TROUGH WITH ITS MOISTURE AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A 3-6DEG F WARMUP AND A RETURN TO MORE SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...LATE DAY HEATING AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ONCE
AGAIN BUBBLE UP IN THE A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/T-
SHOWERS. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE LIGHT. GOING INTO THE
MONDAY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
MIGRATES EASTWARD OVER THE REGION RETURNING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGS ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY AND AS MUCH AS 15 DEGS F ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY WITH A WARMING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EAST OF
THE MTNS. OTHER THAN A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THE HIGH COUNTRY...
BOTH DAYS LOOK DRY. BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURE WITH HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO FALL AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
TROUGH SWINGING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR A SCATTERING OF LATE DAY SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

JUST EXPECT SCATTERED MID AND HIGHS CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY
CEILINGS WILL BE ABOVE 10000 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LIGHT AFTER 15Z. SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS LOW BECAUSE SOME MODELS SHOW A DENVER CYCLONE FORMING.
IF A CYCLONE FORMS...WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY
COMPONENT AT KDEN AND KBJC.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 170321
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
921 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

BEST SNOW IS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS SOUTH OF I-70 AND PARK
COUNTY. THERE ARE SOME RETURNS ON THE RADAR OVER THE PLAINS...BUT
VERY LITTLE SEEMS TO BE HITTING THE GROUND. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. MOISTURE AND
WEAK ASCENT BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN...THOUGH BEST ASCENT OVER
SOUTHWEST COLORADO. SOME SHOWERS ONGOING SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE...BEGINNING TO CREEP NORTHWARD. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
WITH CAPES AROUND 100 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PARK COUNTY. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...BECOMING A BIT MORE EASTERLY. TROUGH STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT. MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. THOUGH THE MAIN BATCH OF MID LEVEL ASCENT
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
ASCENT OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE THE BULK OF THE QPF SOUTH OF
THE CWA. BUT LOW LEVEL EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP WITH LOCAL
UPSLOPE ACROSS SOUTH PARK AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. LATEST RAP SHOWS
LIGHT QPF IN THIS AREA AND EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
LOWER POPS FURTHER NORTH WITH WEAK MID LEVEL ASCENT. SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY OVERNIGHT WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHWEST. DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SPREADS INTO AREA. THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION TO
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD COME TO AN END TOWARDS MORNING.
MAY BE A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS LINCOLN
COUNTY. ON THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND WILL SPREAD
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOW SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM AND GFS
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. AIRMASS LOOKS
FAIRLY SUBSIDENT...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS PROGS SHOW HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER
60S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE A WEAK...SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A WARM UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM TEMPERATURES NAMMAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE MAIN MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
LATER ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE STATE...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTAIN SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
BOTH DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE STATE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HAS
A FAIR CHANCE OF EXTENDING WELL OUT ONTO THE PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WILL THEN BE WARMER AND DRIER AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE GENERAL TIMING OF THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH AND THEN DEVELOPMENT OF THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE EASTERLIES AT DIA HAVE DECREASED AND ARE TRYING TO GO TO
SOUTHEASTERLIES. STILL BELIEVE THEY`LL BE DRAINAGE BEFORE
SUNRISE. DOUBT IF CEILINGS WILL GET BELOW 5000 AGL BEFORE THEY GO
AWAY. WILL LEAVE VCSH IN UNTIL AROUND 09Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 170321
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
921 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

BEST SNOW IS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS SOUTH OF I-70 AND PARK
COUNTY. THERE ARE SOME RETURNS ON THE RADAR OVER THE PLAINS...BUT
VERY LITTLE SEEMS TO BE HITTING THE GROUND. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. MOISTURE AND
WEAK ASCENT BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN...THOUGH BEST ASCENT OVER
SOUTHWEST COLORADO. SOME SHOWERS ONGOING SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE...BEGINNING TO CREEP NORTHWARD. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
WITH CAPES AROUND 100 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PARK COUNTY. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...BECOMING A BIT MORE EASTERLY. TROUGH STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT. MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. THOUGH THE MAIN BATCH OF MID LEVEL ASCENT
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
ASCENT OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE THE BULK OF THE QPF SOUTH OF
THE CWA. BUT LOW LEVEL EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP WITH LOCAL
UPSLOPE ACROSS SOUTH PARK AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. LATEST RAP SHOWS
LIGHT QPF IN THIS AREA AND EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
LOWER POPS FURTHER NORTH WITH WEAK MID LEVEL ASCENT. SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY OVERNIGHT WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHWEST. DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SPREADS INTO AREA. THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION TO
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD COME TO AN END TOWARDS MORNING.
MAY BE A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS LINCOLN
COUNTY. ON THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND WILL SPREAD
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOW SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM AND GFS
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. AIRMASS LOOKS
FAIRLY SUBSIDENT...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS PROGS SHOW HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER
60S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE A WEAK...SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A WARM UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM TEMPERATURES NAMMAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE MAIN MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
LATER ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE STATE...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTAIN SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
BOTH DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE STATE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HAS
A FAIR CHANCE OF EXTENDING WELL OUT ONTO THE PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WILL THEN BE WARMER AND DRIER AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE GENERAL TIMING OF THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH AND THEN DEVELOPMENT OF THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE EASTERLIES AT DIA HAVE DECREASED AND ARE TRYING TO GO TO
SOUTHEASTERLIES. STILL BELIEVE THEY`LL BE DRAINAGE BEFORE
SUNRISE. DOUBT IF CEILINGS WILL GET BELOW 5000 AGL BEFORE THEY GO
AWAY. WILL LEAVE VCSH IN UNTIL AROUND 09Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RJK





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