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000
FXUS65 KBOU 282134
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
334 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

THERE IS PRETTY GOOD CONVECTION GOING OVER THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW.
HAIL OVER AN INCH HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH SOME OF THE CELLS. THERE
ARE BOUNDARIES ALL OVER THE PLACE. THE WATER VAPOR PICTURES ARE
SHOWING ANOTHER DECENT BATCH OF CONVECTION UPSTREAM IN EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO...AGAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AXIS. MODELS SHOW THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH ACROSS
THE CWA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY
WEAK TONIGHT AND WEAK NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE A TAD OF
WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE
CWA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN ALL DOWNWARD FOR ALL THE
CWA FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS MAINLY
NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
CONCERNING MOISTURE...THERE IS A LOT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S F THIS EVENING...THEN MOSTLY
THE 40S F OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME CAPE AROUND THIS
EVENING...MOSTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. VALUES ARE OVER
1000 J/KG OVER THE FAR EASTERN BORDER AREAS. THERE IS CAPE FOR
ALL THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT NOTHING OVER 1000 J/KG. IT WILL LIKELY
NOT GET VERY WARM ON FRIDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.
THERE IS SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER ALL THE CWA MOST OF
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY TOO. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE PROGGED THIS
EVENING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. WILL KEEP POPS GOING OVERNIGHT...BUT
LOW AFTER 06Z. BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY WILL GO WITH "LIKELY"S FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 3-7
C COOLER THAN TODAY`S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME DISAGREEMENT
ABOUT HOW FAST THE CLEARING/DRYING WILL COME. NAM CONTINUES TO BE
FASTER SUGGESTING LOTS OF CLEARING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE
THE OPERATIONAL GFS REMAINS SLOWEST/WETTEST AND STILL HAS
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE FOOTHILLS FRIDAY EVENING. WILL STICK WITH
THE IDEA OF A COMPROMISE SHADED TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTIONS...I
LEFT THE EVENING POPS AS THEY WERE BUT SPED UP THE DEPARTURE OF
THE WEATHER BY A FEW HOURS. THIS HAS ONLY MINIMAL POPS ON THE
SOUTHERN BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER
THAT IT WILL BE WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT AND SHOULD BE TOO STABLE
FOR MUCH AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH I DID LEAVE SOME LOW
AFTERNOON POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER FOR
SATURDAY WHICH FITS THE SLIGHTLY EARLIER TIMING AND MORE SUNSHINE.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A WARM DRY RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER. THERE
HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH LOOKS ALRIGHT
THOUGH I DID HOLD BACK A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE MOIST GROUND.
WE WILL BE NEAR 80 ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD BE THE FIRST 80 IN
MAY...THEN LOW TO MID 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK GOOD. MODELS
HAVE FLIPPED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TROUGH...BUT THE CONSENSUS
IS THE SAME. SOME MODELS SHOW A WEAK LEAD TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
ABOUT WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD BRING A LITTLE COOLING AND PERHAPS A
BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. OTHERS LACK THIS AND WOULD HAVE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MAIN FEATURE IS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WHICH
WILL KEEP A WARM AND MAINLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER US.
CONSENSUS FORECAST IS FINE WHICH SHOWS A LITTLE COOLING AND SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS STARTING WEDNESDAY...BUT PROBABLY NOT A BIG
CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

DIA MAY NOT HAVE NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS BY LATE EVENING TONIGHT
...OR MAYBE JUST A WEAK VERSION OF THEM. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLIES
ARE PROGGED ON FRIDAY. THERE MAY NOT BE ANY CEILING ISSUES THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEY COULD GET DOWN TO BKN040 FROM LATE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

SOME OF TODAYS THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT
ANY FLOODING SHOULD BE LOCALIZED. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY...BUT AGAIN IT SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH A LOW
RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING AND LITTLE EFFECT ON THE LARGER
RIVERS. THE CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER IN GREELEY WILL REMAIN NEAR
FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEKEND...WHILE THE SOUTH PLATTE DOWNSTREAM WILL
BE SLOWLY FALLING.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
SNOWMELT...LEADING TO HIGH FLOWS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS WATER WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM DURING THE NEXT
WEEK SO HIGH FLOWS WILL CONTINUE ON THE SOUTH PLATTE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...RJK
HYDROLOGY...GIMMESTAD/RJK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 282134
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
334 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

THERE IS PRETTY GOOD CONVECTION GOING OVER THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW.
HAIL OVER AN INCH HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH SOME OF THE CELLS. THERE
ARE BOUNDARIES ALL OVER THE PLACE. THE WATER VAPOR PICTURES ARE
SHOWING ANOTHER DECENT BATCH OF CONVECTION UPSTREAM IN EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO...AGAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AXIS. MODELS SHOW THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH ACROSS
THE CWA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY
WEAK TONIGHT AND WEAK NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE A TAD OF
WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE
CWA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN ALL DOWNWARD FOR ALL THE
CWA FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS MAINLY
NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
CONCERNING MOISTURE...THERE IS A LOT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S F THIS EVENING...THEN MOSTLY
THE 40S F OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME CAPE AROUND THIS
EVENING...MOSTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. VALUES ARE OVER
1000 J/KG OVER THE FAR EASTERN BORDER AREAS. THERE IS CAPE FOR
ALL THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT NOTHING OVER 1000 J/KG. IT WILL LIKELY
NOT GET VERY WARM ON FRIDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.
THERE IS SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER ALL THE CWA MOST OF
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY TOO. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE PROGGED THIS
EVENING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. WILL KEEP POPS GOING OVERNIGHT...BUT
LOW AFTER 06Z. BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY WILL GO WITH "LIKELY"S FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 3-7
C COOLER THAN TODAY`S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME DISAGREEMENT
ABOUT HOW FAST THE CLEARING/DRYING WILL COME. NAM CONTINUES TO BE
FASTER SUGGESTING LOTS OF CLEARING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE
THE OPERATIONAL GFS REMAINS SLOWEST/WETTEST AND STILL HAS
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE FOOTHILLS FRIDAY EVENING. WILL STICK WITH
THE IDEA OF A COMPROMISE SHADED TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTIONS...I
LEFT THE EVENING POPS AS THEY WERE BUT SPED UP THE DEPARTURE OF
THE WEATHER BY A FEW HOURS. THIS HAS ONLY MINIMAL POPS ON THE
SOUTHERN BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER
THAT IT WILL BE WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT AND SHOULD BE TOO STABLE
FOR MUCH AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH I DID LEAVE SOME LOW
AFTERNOON POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER FOR
SATURDAY WHICH FITS THE SLIGHTLY EARLIER TIMING AND MORE SUNSHINE.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A WARM DRY RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER. THERE
HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH LOOKS ALRIGHT
THOUGH I DID HOLD BACK A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE MOIST GROUND.
WE WILL BE NEAR 80 ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD BE THE FIRST 80 IN
MAY...THEN LOW TO MID 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK GOOD. MODELS
HAVE FLIPPED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TROUGH...BUT THE CONSENSUS
IS THE SAME. SOME MODELS SHOW A WEAK LEAD TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
ABOUT WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD BRING A LITTLE COOLING AND PERHAPS A
BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. OTHERS LACK THIS AND WOULD HAVE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MAIN FEATURE IS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WHICH
WILL KEEP A WARM AND MAINLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER US.
CONSENSUS FORECAST IS FINE WHICH SHOWS A LITTLE COOLING AND SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS STARTING WEDNESDAY...BUT PROBABLY NOT A BIG
CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

DIA MAY NOT HAVE NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS BY LATE EVENING TONIGHT
...OR MAYBE JUST A WEAK VERSION OF THEM. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLIES
ARE PROGGED ON FRIDAY. THERE MAY NOT BE ANY CEILING ISSUES THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEY COULD GET DOWN TO BKN040 FROM LATE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

SOME OF TODAYS THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT
ANY FLOODING SHOULD BE LOCALIZED. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY...BUT AGAIN IT SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH A LOW
RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING AND LITTLE EFFECT ON THE LARGER
RIVERS. THE CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER IN GREELEY WILL REMAIN NEAR
FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEKEND...WHILE THE SOUTH PLATTE DOWNSTREAM WILL
BE SLOWLY FALLING.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
SNOWMELT...LEADING TO HIGH FLOWS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS WATER WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM DURING THE NEXT
WEEK SO HIGH FLOWS WILL CONTINUE ON THE SOUTH PLATTE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...RJK
HYDROLOGY...GIMMESTAD/RJK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 282134
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
334 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

THERE IS PRETTY GOOD CONVECTION GOING OVER THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW.
HAIL OVER AN INCH HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH SOME OF THE CELLS. THERE
ARE BOUNDARIES ALL OVER THE PLACE. THE WATER VAPOR PICTURES ARE
SHOWING ANOTHER DECENT BATCH OF CONVECTION UPSTREAM IN EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO...AGAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AXIS. MODELS SHOW THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH ACROSS
THE CWA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY
WEAK TONIGHT AND WEAK NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE A TAD OF
WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE
CWA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN ALL DOWNWARD FOR ALL THE
CWA FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS MAINLY
NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
CONCERNING MOISTURE...THERE IS A LOT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S F THIS EVENING...THEN MOSTLY
THE 40S F OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME CAPE AROUND THIS
EVENING...MOSTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. VALUES ARE OVER
1000 J/KG OVER THE FAR EASTERN BORDER AREAS. THERE IS CAPE FOR
ALL THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT NOTHING OVER 1000 J/KG. IT WILL LIKELY
NOT GET VERY WARM ON FRIDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.
THERE IS SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER ALL THE CWA MOST OF
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY TOO. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE PROGGED THIS
EVENING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. WILL KEEP POPS GOING OVERNIGHT...BUT
LOW AFTER 06Z. BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY WILL GO WITH "LIKELY"S FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 3-7
C COOLER THAN TODAY`S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME DISAGREEMENT
ABOUT HOW FAST THE CLEARING/DRYING WILL COME. NAM CONTINUES TO BE
FASTER SUGGESTING LOTS OF CLEARING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE
THE OPERATIONAL GFS REMAINS SLOWEST/WETTEST AND STILL HAS
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE FOOTHILLS FRIDAY EVENING. WILL STICK WITH
THE IDEA OF A COMPROMISE SHADED TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTIONS...I
LEFT THE EVENING POPS AS THEY WERE BUT SPED UP THE DEPARTURE OF
THE WEATHER BY A FEW HOURS. THIS HAS ONLY MINIMAL POPS ON THE
SOUTHERN BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER
THAT IT WILL BE WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT AND SHOULD BE TOO STABLE
FOR MUCH AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH I DID LEAVE SOME LOW
AFTERNOON POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER FOR
SATURDAY WHICH FITS THE SLIGHTLY EARLIER TIMING AND MORE SUNSHINE.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A WARM DRY RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER. THERE
HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH LOOKS ALRIGHT
THOUGH I DID HOLD BACK A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE MOIST GROUND.
WE WILL BE NEAR 80 ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD BE THE FIRST 80 IN
MAY...THEN LOW TO MID 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK GOOD. MODELS
HAVE FLIPPED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TROUGH...BUT THE CONSENSUS
IS THE SAME. SOME MODELS SHOW A WEAK LEAD TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
ABOUT WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD BRING A LITTLE COOLING AND PERHAPS A
BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. OTHERS LACK THIS AND WOULD HAVE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MAIN FEATURE IS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WHICH
WILL KEEP A WARM AND MAINLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER US.
CONSENSUS FORECAST IS FINE WHICH SHOWS A LITTLE COOLING AND SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS STARTING WEDNESDAY...BUT PROBABLY NOT A BIG
CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

DIA MAY NOT HAVE NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS BY LATE EVENING TONIGHT
...OR MAYBE JUST A WEAK VERSION OF THEM. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLIES
ARE PROGGED ON FRIDAY. THERE MAY NOT BE ANY CEILING ISSUES THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEY COULD GET DOWN TO BKN040 FROM LATE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

SOME OF TODAYS THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT
ANY FLOODING SHOULD BE LOCALIZED. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY...BUT AGAIN IT SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH A LOW
RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING AND LITTLE EFFECT ON THE LARGER
RIVERS. THE CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER IN GREELEY WILL REMAIN NEAR
FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEKEND...WHILE THE SOUTH PLATTE DOWNSTREAM WILL
BE SLOWLY FALLING.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
SNOWMELT...LEADING TO HIGH FLOWS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS WATER WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM DURING THE NEXT
WEEK SO HIGH FLOWS WILL CONTINUE ON THE SOUTH PLATTE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...RJK
HYDROLOGY...GIMMESTAD/RJK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 281716
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1116 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WATER VAPOR PICTURES ARE SHOWING THE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED
FROM THE OVERNIGHT SHORT TERM FORECASTER. HE HAD IT TIMED PRETTY
WELL. THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE PLAINS CONTINUE TO HAVE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S F DEW POINTS. THEY ARE A BIT LOWER OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WILL MAKE A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS...THAT`S
IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NERN
CO BY EARLY AFTN. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC THERE WILL BE A LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN AKRON AND LIMON WITH A CONVERGENCE
ZONE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS. APPEARS CONVECTION MAY DVLP ALONG
THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE BY LATE MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REST OF NERN CO BY EARLY AFTN AS DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NR AN
INCH OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...WITH INCREASING MID LVL FLOW BY
AFTN STORMS WILL BE RATHER FAST MOVING SO WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR A FEW SVR STORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE PLAINS WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THERE WILL BE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS DUE TO
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S OVER NERN CO.

BY TONIGHT THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING AS THE WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO WY.  PCPN WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES SE INTO NRN CO LATE TONIGHT THERE
MAYBE ANOTHER CHC OF SHOWERS TOWARDS MORNING AS A FNT MOVES ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER COLORADO FRIDAY...WITH COOLER AIR
PUSHING INTO THE AREA IN UPSLOPE FLOW. ALL MODELS HAVE SHOWN A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE EARLY MORNING FROM PRECIPITATION...BEFORE THE
POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY. HAVE ADDED
THIS DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE MAKES ITS
MAIN PUSH INTO THE STATE. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MUCH...EXPECT AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER
THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE...AND ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL AS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY WEST OF THE DIVIDE. WITH CLOUD COVER ALL DAY AND
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN
THE MID 60S FOR THE PLAINS. MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE READINGS IN
THE 50S TO LOW 60S. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 9000 EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASE TO NEAR 11,000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON
THEN BACK DOWN AROUND 10,000 FT AT NIGHT. EXPECT A FEW INCHES OF
WET SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COULD SEE MORE CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...BUT ALL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK.  FEEL LIKE CONVECTION WILL BE DONE FRIDAY EVENING

HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY WILL KEEP STABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WHILE SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR AT
MIDLEVELS AND AFFECT THE HIGH COUNTRY. EXPECT WARMER CONDITIONS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS...WHICH MAY
DRIFT EAST OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS ...BUT STABLE AIR WILL INHIBIT
THEM MAKING IT TOO FAR.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FEATURE WARMING AS AN UPPER RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES....HELPING TO WARM MORE QUICKLY WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS.
LOOKING AT EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THIS GUIDANCE.
THIS EARLY JUNE WARM UP MAY BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS BOTH GFS AND
EC MODELS HAVE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE PACNW WITH
TRENDS OF COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER APPROACHING THE STATE AGAIN.
HOWEVER THE JET SEEMS TO STAY FURTHER NORTH THAN WE`VE BEEN
EXPERIENCING THIS MONTH...SO NOT AS WET AND COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

ALL THE MODELS POINT TO LIGHT UPSLOPE AT DIA INTO THE EVENING
...BEFORE NORMAL DRAINAGE KICKS IN BY 06Z. WILL LEAVE THE TEMPO
GROUP IN FOR TSRA. COULD GET CEILINGS BKN050 DURING THE STORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS COULD PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH
OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE
QUARTER INCH TO HALF INCH RANGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY`S UPSLOPE EVENT WILL STILL LIKELY HAVE WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD. EXPECT 0.25-0.5" OVER THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS
...FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT WESTER PLAINS. AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN TWO
TENTHS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH
MAY ADD MORE WATER TO THE AREA RIVERS...BUT AT THIS TIME THE
FLOODING THREAT IS NOT THAT GREAT.

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CACHE LA POURDE RIVER IN GREELEY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RJK
HYDROLOGY...RPK/RJK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 280919
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
319 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NERN
CO BY EARLY AFTN. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC THERE WILL BE A LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN AKRON AND LIMON WITH A CONVERGENCE
ZONE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS. APPEARS CONVECTION MAY DVLP ALONG
THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE BY LATE MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REST OF NERN CO BY EARLY AFTN AS DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NR AN
INCH OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...WITH INCREASING MID LVL FLOW BY
AFTN STORMS WILL BE RATHER FAST MOVING SO WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR A FEW SVR STORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE PLAINS WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THERE WILL BE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS DUE TO
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S OVER NERN CO.

BY TONIGHT THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING AS THE WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO WY.  PCPN WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES SE INTO NRN CO LATE TONIGHT THERE
MAYBE ANOTHER CHC OF SHOWERS TOWARDS MORNING AS A FNT MOVES ACROSS
THE PLAINS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER COLORADO FRIDAY...WITH COOLER AIR
PUSHING INTO THE AREA IN UPSLOPE FLOW. ALL MODELS HAVE SHOWN A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE EARLY MORNING FROM PRECIPITATION...BEFORE THE
POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY. HAVE ADDED
THIS DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE MAKES ITS
MAIN PUSH INTO THE STATE. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MUCH...EXPECT AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER
THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE...AND ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL AS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY WEST OF THE DIVIDE. WITH CLOUD COVER ALL DAY AND
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN
THE MID 60S FOR THE PLAINS. MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE READINGS IN
THE 50S TO LOW 60S. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 9000 EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASE TO NEAR 11,000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON
THEN BACK DOWN AROUND 10,000 FT AT NIGHT. EXPECT A FEW INCHES OF
WET SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COULD SEE MORE CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...BUT ALL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK.  FEEL LIKE CONVECTION WILL BE DONE FRIDAY EVENING

HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY WILL KEEP STABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WHILE SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR AT
MIDLEVELS AND AFFECT THE HIGH COUNTRY. EXPECT WARMER CONDITIONS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS...WHICH MAY
DRIFT EAST OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS ...BUT STABLE AIR WILL INHIBIT
THEM MAKING IT TOO FAR.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FEATURE WARMING AS AN UPPER RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES....HELPING TO WARM MORE QUICKLY WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS.
LOOKING AT EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THIS GUIDANCE.
THIS EARLY JUNE WARM UP MAY BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS BOTH GFS AND
EC MODELS HAVE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE PACNW WITH
TRENDS OF COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER APPROACHING THE STATE AGAIN.
HOWEVER THE JET SEEMS TO STAY FURTHER NORTH THAN WE`VE BEEN
EXPERIENCING THIS MONTH...SO NOT AS WET AND COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

A SFC LOW WAS JUST EAST OF DIA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WNW WINDS.  A
NARROW STRATUS DECK HAS FORMED JUST BEHIND THE LOW WITH CEILINGS
DOWN TO 800 FEET AT DIA. THE LATEST HRRR SHOW THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY LINGER UNTIL 12Z BEFORE BREAKING UP. AS FOR TSTM CHANCES IT
APPEARS BEST CHC WOULD BE IN THE 19Z-22Z RANGE. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROND 15Z AND THEN LIGHT ESE BY MIDDAY. BY 20Z
THEY WILL BECOME MORE NWLY AND THEN TREND BACK TO MORE SSW BY
EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS DRAINAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS COULD PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH
OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE
QUARTER INCH TO HALF INCH RANGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY`S UPSLOPE EVENT WILL STILL LIKELY HAVE WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD. EXPECT 0.25-0.5" OVER THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT WESTER PLAINS. AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN TWO TENTHS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AGAINST THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHICH MAY ADD MORE WATER TO THE AREA RIVERS...BUT AT
THIS TIME THE FLOODING THREAT IS NOT THAT GREAT.

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT KERSEY AS
WELL AS THE CACHE LA POUDRE AT GREELEY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 280919
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
319 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NERN
CO BY EARLY AFTN. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC THERE WILL BE A LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN AKRON AND LIMON WITH A CONVERGENCE
ZONE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS. APPEARS CONVECTION MAY DVLP ALONG
THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE BY LATE MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REST OF NERN CO BY EARLY AFTN AS DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NR AN
INCH OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...WITH INCREASING MID LVL FLOW BY
AFTN STORMS WILL BE RATHER FAST MOVING SO WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR A FEW SVR STORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE PLAINS WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THERE WILL BE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS DUE TO
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S OVER NERN CO.

BY TONIGHT THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING AS THE WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO WY.  PCPN WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES SE INTO NRN CO LATE TONIGHT THERE
MAYBE ANOTHER CHC OF SHOWERS TOWARDS MORNING AS A FNT MOVES ACROSS
THE PLAINS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER COLORADO FRIDAY...WITH COOLER AIR
PUSHING INTO THE AREA IN UPSLOPE FLOW. ALL MODELS HAVE SHOWN A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE EARLY MORNING FROM PRECIPITATION...BEFORE THE
POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY. HAVE ADDED
THIS DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE MAKES ITS
MAIN PUSH INTO THE STATE. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MUCH...EXPECT AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER
THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE...AND ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL AS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY WEST OF THE DIVIDE. WITH CLOUD COVER ALL DAY AND
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN
THE MID 60S FOR THE PLAINS. MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE READINGS IN
THE 50S TO LOW 60S. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 9000 EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASE TO NEAR 11,000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON
THEN BACK DOWN AROUND 10,000 FT AT NIGHT. EXPECT A FEW INCHES OF
WET SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COULD SEE MORE CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...BUT ALL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK.  FEEL LIKE CONVECTION WILL BE DONE FRIDAY EVENING

HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY WILL KEEP STABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WHILE SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR AT
MIDLEVELS AND AFFECT THE HIGH COUNTRY. EXPECT WARMER CONDITIONS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS...WHICH MAY
DRIFT EAST OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS ...BUT STABLE AIR WILL INHIBIT
THEM MAKING IT TOO FAR.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FEATURE WARMING AS AN UPPER RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES....HELPING TO WARM MORE QUICKLY WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS.
LOOKING AT EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THIS GUIDANCE.
THIS EARLY JUNE WARM UP MAY BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS BOTH GFS AND
EC MODELS HAVE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE PACNW WITH
TRENDS OF COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER APPROACHING THE STATE AGAIN.
HOWEVER THE JET SEEMS TO STAY FURTHER NORTH THAN WE`VE BEEN
EXPERIENCING THIS MONTH...SO NOT AS WET AND COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

A SFC LOW WAS JUST EAST OF DIA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WNW WINDS.  A
NARROW STRATUS DECK HAS FORMED JUST BEHIND THE LOW WITH CEILINGS
DOWN TO 800 FEET AT DIA. THE LATEST HRRR SHOW THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY LINGER UNTIL 12Z BEFORE BREAKING UP. AS FOR TSTM CHANCES IT
APPEARS BEST CHC WOULD BE IN THE 19Z-22Z RANGE. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROND 15Z AND THEN LIGHT ESE BY MIDDAY. BY 20Z
THEY WILL BECOME MORE NWLY AND THEN TREND BACK TO MORE SSW BY
EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS DRAINAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS COULD PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH
OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE
QUARTER INCH TO HALF INCH RANGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY`S UPSLOPE EVENT WILL STILL LIKELY HAVE WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD. EXPECT 0.25-0.5" OVER THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT WESTER PLAINS. AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN TWO TENTHS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AGAINST THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHICH MAY ADD MORE WATER TO THE AREA RIVERS...BUT AT
THIS TIME THE FLOODING THREAT IS NOT THAT GREAT.

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT KERSEY AS
WELL AS THE CACHE LA POUDRE AT GREELEY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 280148
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM DNR SHOWED THE SURFACE BASE CAPE WAS CLOSE
TO A 1000 J/KG...BUT ALSO SHOWED CAP FROM 600MB TO 500MB. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS HELPED
BREAK THE CAP WITH THE STORM OVER DENVER. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FRONT RANGE WHERE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHWEST. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN HAVE
THE FORECAST DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS HAS DEVELOPED WITH REPORTS OF SEVERE
OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS STORMS WILL
BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
FURTHER EAST ALONG A LINE FROM LIMON NORTH TO STERLING WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO. OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BRINGING SUBSIDENCE IN HELPING TO
STABILIZE CONVECTION.

FOR THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO COLORADO
KEEPING MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH OVER THE PLAINS. WITH TEMPERATURES
PROGGED TO BE 1 TO 2 DEGREES HIGHER TOMORROW INSTABILITY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE HIGH ENOUGH TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL OVER
THE PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE PUTTING MORE EMPHASIS ON THE LEADING PART OF
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT COMES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...TAKING
THE EDGE OFF OF THE LIFT FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL ALREADY BE THROUGH. THE SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS IS
ALSO OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BEST MOISTURE...NOT COMING UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY. IT STILL LOOKS WET WITH THE AIRMASS SATURATING
EVENTUALLY AND NEUTRAL STABILITY BY FRIDAY EVENING. TREND WAS A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH EVERYTHING AS WELL...I JUST MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING. THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
LOOKING LOW NOW. THE 12Z GFS STILL HAD MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF
RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...EVERYTHING ELSE IS
LIGHTER AND THE CONSENSUS IS NOW MORE LIKE A QUARTER INCH IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...IN LINE WITH OUR CURRENT QPF FORECAST.

WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING I HELD ON TO SOME POPS SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SHARP WARMING/DRYING ALOFT DURING THE
MORNING THOUGH...THEN JUST MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DIURNAL STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING THOUGH. RIDGE BUILDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SO LOW
POPS ARE IN ORDER. LATEST GUIDANCE IS WARMER AND MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT 80S ON THE PLAINS...SO WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED
THESE DAYS A BIT HIGHER.

SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. GFS EJECTS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES OVER COLORADO WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH FOR
INCREASED LATE DAY CONVECTION STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
STILL GENERALLY A DRY ENVIRONMENT. ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS
TROUGH AND HOLDS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER US. THIS COULD STILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME LEE TROUGHING TO GENERATE A DRYLINE AND SOME
UPTICK IN CONVECTION. FOR NOW A SLIGHT COOLING WITH LOW POPS IS IN
ORDER...HOLDING OFF ON ANYTHING MORE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 06Z...
NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT KDEN AND KAPA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...15Z AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
THURSDAY...AFTER 21Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT KERSEY AS
WELL AS CACHE LA POUDRE AT GREELEY. RIVER READINGS ARE STILL AT OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ALTER THE CURRENT RIVER STAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 280148
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM DNR SHOWED THE SURFACE BASE CAPE WAS CLOSE
TO A 1000 J/KG...BUT ALSO SHOWED CAP FROM 600MB TO 500MB. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS HELPED
BREAK THE CAP WITH THE STORM OVER DENVER. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FRONT RANGE WHERE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHWEST. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN HAVE
THE FORECAST DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS HAS DEVELOPED WITH REPORTS OF SEVERE
OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS STORMS WILL
BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
FURTHER EAST ALONG A LINE FROM LIMON NORTH TO STERLING WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO. OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BRINGING SUBSIDENCE IN HELPING TO
STABILIZE CONVECTION.

FOR THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO COLORADO
KEEPING MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH OVER THE PLAINS. WITH TEMPERATURES
PROGGED TO BE 1 TO 2 DEGREES HIGHER TOMORROW INSTABILITY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE HIGH ENOUGH TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL OVER
THE PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE PUTTING MORE EMPHASIS ON THE LEADING PART OF
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT COMES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...TAKING
THE EDGE OFF OF THE LIFT FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL ALREADY BE THROUGH. THE SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS IS
ALSO OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BEST MOISTURE...NOT COMING UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY. IT STILL LOOKS WET WITH THE AIRMASS SATURATING
EVENTUALLY AND NEUTRAL STABILITY BY FRIDAY EVENING. TREND WAS A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH EVERYTHING AS WELL...I JUST MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING. THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
LOOKING LOW NOW. THE 12Z GFS STILL HAD MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF
RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...EVERYTHING ELSE IS
LIGHTER AND THE CONSENSUS IS NOW MORE LIKE A QUARTER INCH IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...IN LINE WITH OUR CURRENT QPF FORECAST.

WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING I HELD ON TO SOME POPS SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SHARP WARMING/DRYING ALOFT DURING THE
MORNING THOUGH...THEN JUST MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DIURNAL STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING THOUGH. RIDGE BUILDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SO LOW
POPS ARE IN ORDER. LATEST GUIDANCE IS WARMER AND MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT 80S ON THE PLAINS...SO WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED
THESE DAYS A BIT HIGHER.

SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. GFS EJECTS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES OVER COLORADO WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH FOR
INCREASED LATE DAY CONVECTION STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
STILL GENERALLY A DRY ENVIRONMENT. ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS
TROUGH AND HOLDS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER US. THIS COULD STILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME LEE TROUGHING TO GENERATE A DRYLINE AND SOME
UPTICK IN CONVECTION. FOR NOW A SLIGHT COOLING WITH LOW POPS IS IN
ORDER...HOLDING OFF ON ANYTHING MORE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 06Z...
NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT KDEN AND KAPA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...15Z AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
THURSDAY...AFTER 21Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT KERSEY AS
WELL AS CACHE LA POUDRE AT GREELEY. RIVER READINGS ARE STILL AT OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ALTER THE CURRENT RIVER STAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 280148
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM DNR SHOWED THE SURFACE BASE CAPE WAS CLOSE
TO A 1000 J/KG...BUT ALSO SHOWED CAP FROM 600MB TO 500MB. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS HELPED
BREAK THE CAP WITH THE STORM OVER DENVER. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FRONT RANGE WHERE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHWEST. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN HAVE
THE FORECAST DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS HAS DEVELOPED WITH REPORTS OF SEVERE
OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS STORMS WILL
BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
FURTHER EAST ALONG A LINE FROM LIMON NORTH TO STERLING WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO. OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BRINGING SUBSIDENCE IN HELPING TO
STABILIZE CONVECTION.

FOR THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO COLORADO
KEEPING MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH OVER THE PLAINS. WITH TEMPERATURES
PROGGED TO BE 1 TO 2 DEGREES HIGHER TOMORROW INSTABILITY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE HIGH ENOUGH TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL OVER
THE PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE PUTTING MORE EMPHASIS ON THE LEADING PART OF
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT COMES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...TAKING
THE EDGE OFF OF THE LIFT FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL ALREADY BE THROUGH. THE SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS IS
ALSO OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BEST MOISTURE...NOT COMING UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY. IT STILL LOOKS WET WITH THE AIRMASS SATURATING
EVENTUALLY AND NEUTRAL STABILITY BY FRIDAY EVENING. TREND WAS A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH EVERYTHING AS WELL...I JUST MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING. THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
LOOKING LOW NOW. THE 12Z GFS STILL HAD MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF
RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...EVERYTHING ELSE IS
LIGHTER AND THE CONSENSUS IS NOW MORE LIKE A QUARTER INCH IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...IN LINE WITH OUR CURRENT QPF FORECAST.

WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING I HELD ON TO SOME POPS SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SHARP WARMING/DRYING ALOFT DURING THE
MORNING THOUGH...THEN JUST MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DIURNAL STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING THOUGH. RIDGE BUILDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SO LOW
POPS ARE IN ORDER. LATEST GUIDANCE IS WARMER AND MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT 80S ON THE PLAINS...SO WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED
THESE DAYS A BIT HIGHER.

SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. GFS EJECTS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES OVER COLORADO WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH FOR
INCREASED LATE DAY CONVECTION STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
STILL GENERALLY A DRY ENVIRONMENT. ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS
TROUGH AND HOLDS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER US. THIS COULD STILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME LEE TROUGHING TO GENERATE A DRYLINE AND SOME
UPTICK IN CONVECTION. FOR NOW A SLIGHT COOLING WITH LOW POPS IS IN
ORDER...HOLDING OFF ON ANYTHING MORE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 06Z...
NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT KDEN AND KAPA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...15Z AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
THURSDAY...AFTER 21Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT KERSEY AS
WELL AS CACHE LA POUDRE AT GREELEY. RIVER READINGS ARE STILL AT OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ALTER THE CURRENT RIVER STAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 280148
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM DNR SHOWED THE SURFACE BASE CAPE WAS CLOSE
TO A 1000 J/KG...BUT ALSO SHOWED CAP FROM 600MB TO 500MB. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS HELPED
BREAK THE CAP WITH THE STORM OVER DENVER. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FRONT RANGE WHERE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHWEST. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN HAVE
THE FORECAST DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS HAS DEVELOPED WITH REPORTS OF SEVERE
OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS STORMS WILL
BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
FURTHER EAST ALONG A LINE FROM LIMON NORTH TO STERLING WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO. OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BRINGING SUBSIDENCE IN HELPING TO
STABILIZE CONVECTION.

FOR THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO COLORADO
KEEPING MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH OVER THE PLAINS. WITH TEMPERATURES
PROGGED TO BE 1 TO 2 DEGREES HIGHER TOMORROW INSTABILITY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE HIGH ENOUGH TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL OVER
THE PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE PUTTING MORE EMPHASIS ON THE LEADING PART OF
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT COMES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...TAKING
THE EDGE OFF OF THE LIFT FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL ALREADY BE THROUGH. THE SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS IS
ALSO OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BEST MOISTURE...NOT COMING UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY. IT STILL LOOKS WET WITH THE AIRMASS SATURATING
EVENTUALLY AND NEUTRAL STABILITY BY FRIDAY EVENING. TREND WAS A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH EVERYTHING AS WELL...I JUST MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING. THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
LOOKING LOW NOW. THE 12Z GFS STILL HAD MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF
RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...EVERYTHING ELSE IS
LIGHTER AND THE CONSENSUS IS NOW MORE LIKE A QUARTER INCH IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...IN LINE WITH OUR CURRENT QPF FORECAST.

WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING I HELD ON TO SOME POPS SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SHARP WARMING/DRYING ALOFT DURING THE
MORNING THOUGH...THEN JUST MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DIURNAL STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING THOUGH. RIDGE BUILDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SO LOW
POPS ARE IN ORDER. LATEST GUIDANCE IS WARMER AND MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT 80S ON THE PLAINS...SO WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED
THESE DAYS A BIT HIGHER.

SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. GFS EJECTS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES OVER COLORADO WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH FOR
INCREASED LATE DAY CONVECTION STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
STILL GENERALLY A DRY ENVIRONMENT. ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS
TROUGH AND HOLDS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER US. THIS COULD STILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME LEE TROUGHING TO GENERATE A DRYLINE AND SOME
UPTICK IN CONVECTION. FOR NOW A SLIGHT COOLING WITH LOW POPS IS IN
ORDER...HOLDING OFF ON ANYTHING MORE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 06Z...
NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT KDEN AND KAPA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...15Z AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
THURSDAY...AFTER 21Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT KERSEY AS
WELL AS CACHE LA POUDRE AT GREELEY. RIVER READINGS ARE STILL AT OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ALTER THE CURRENT RIVER STAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 272042
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
242 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS HAS DEVELOPED WITH REPORTS OF SEVERE
OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS STORMS WILL
BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
FURTHER EAST ALONG A LINE FROM LIMON NORTH TO STERLING WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO. OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BRINGING SUBSIDENCE IN HELPING TO
STABILIZE CONVECTION.

FOR THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO COLORADO
KEEPING MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH OVER THE PLAINS. WITH TEMPERATURES
PROGGED TO BE 1 TO 2 DEGREES HIGHER TOMORROW INSTABILITY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE HIGH ENOUGH TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL OVER
THE PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE PUTTING MORE EMPHASIS ON THE LEADING PART OF
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT COMES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...TAKING
THE EDGE OFF OF THE LIFT FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL ALREADY BE THROUGH. THE SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS IS
ALSO OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BEST MOISTURE...NOT COMING UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY. IT STILL LOOKS WET WITH THE AIRMASS SATURATING
EVENTUALLY AND NEUTRAL STABILITY BY FRIDAY EVENING. TREND WAS A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH EVERYTHING AS WELL...I JUST MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING. THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
LOOKING LOW NOW. THE 12Z GFS STILL HAD MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF
RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...EVERYTHING ELSE IS
LIGHTER AND THE CONSENSUS IS NOW MORE LIKE A QUARTER INCH IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...IN LINE WITH OUR CURRENT QPF FORECAST.

WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING I HELD ON TO SOME POPS SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SHARP WARMING/DRYING ALOFT DURING THE
MORNING THOUGH...THEN JUST MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DIURNAL STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING THOUGH. RIDGE BUILDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SO LOW
POPS ARE IN ORDER. LATEST GUIDANCE IS WARMER AND MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT 80S ON THE PLAINS...SO WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED
THESE DAYS A BIT HIGHER.

SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. GFS EJECTS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES OVER COLORADO WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH FOR
INCREASED LATE DAY CONVECTION STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
STILL GENERALLY A DRY ENVIRONMENT. ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS
TROUGH AND HOLDS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER US. THIS COULD STILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME LEE TROUGHING TO GENERATE A DRYLINE AND SOME
UPTICK IN CONVECTION. FOR NOW A SLIGHT COOLING WITH LOW POPS IS IN
ORDER...HOLDING OFF ON ANYTHING MORE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTION WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 22 AND 24Z WITH A BKN
DECK MOVING IN AND POSSIBLE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME SSE BEFORE IT MOVE TO DRAINAGE BY 06Z.
CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH CEILINGS
RETURNING BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT KERSEY AS
WELL AS CACHE LA POUDRE AT GREELEY. RIVER READINGS ARE STILL AT OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ALTER THE CURRENT RIVER STAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...BOWEN
HYDROLOGY...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 272042
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
242 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS HAS DEVELOPED WITH REPORTS OF SEVERE
OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS STORMS WILL
BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
FURTHER EAST ALONG A LINE FROM LIMON NORTH TO STERLING WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO. OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BRINGING SUBSIDENCE IN HELPING TO
STABILIZE CONVECTION.

FOR THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO COLORADO
KEEPING MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH OVER THE PLAINS. WITH TEMPERATURES
PROGGED TO BE 1 TO 2 DEGREES HIGHER TOMORROW INSTABILITY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE HIGH ENOUGH TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL OVER
THE PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE PUTTING MORE EMPHASIS ON THE LEADING PART OF
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT COMES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...TAKING
THE EDGE OFF OF THE LIFT FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL ALREADY BE THROUGH. THE SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS IS
ALSO OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BEST MOISTURE...NOT COMING UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY. IT STILL LOOKS WET WITH THE AIRMASS SATURATING
EVENTUALLY AND NEUTRAL STABILITY BY FRIDAY EVENING. TREND WAS A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH EVERYTHING AS WELL...I JUST MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING. THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
LOOKING LOW NOW. THE 12Z GFS STILL HAD MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF
RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...EVERYTHING ELSE IS
LIGHTER AND THE CONSENSUS IS NOW MORE LIKE A QUARTER INCH IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...IN LINE WITH OUR CURRENT QPF FORECAST.

WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING I HELD ON TO SOME POPS SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SHARP WARMING/DRYING ALOFT DURING THE
MORNING THOUGH...THEN JUST MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DIURNAL STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING THOUGH. RIDGE BUILDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SO LOW
POPS ARE IN ORDER. LATEST GUIDANCE IS WARMER AND MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT 80S ON THE PLAINS...SO WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED
THESE DAYS A BIT HIGHER.

SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. GFS EJECTS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES OVER COLORADO WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH FOR
INCREASED LATE DAY CONVECTION STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
STILL GENERALLY A DRY ENVIRONMENT. ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS
TROUGH AND HOLDS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER US. THIS COULD STILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME LEE TROUGHING TO GENERATE A DRYLINE AND SOME
UPTICK IN CONVECTION. FOR NOW A SLIGHT COOLING WITH LOW POPS IS IN
ORDER...HOLDING OFF ON ANYTHING MORE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTION WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 22 AND 24Z WITH A BKN
DECK MOVING IN AND POSSIBLE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME SSE BEFORE IT MOVE TO DRAINAGE BY 06Z.
CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH CEILINGS
RETURNING BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT KERSEY AS
WELL AS CACHE LA POUDRE AT GREELEY. RIVER READINGS ARE STILL AT OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ALTER THE CURRENT RIVER STAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...BOWEN
HYDROLOGY...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 271611
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1011 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH MAKES IT WAY SOUTH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT WILL BRING
INCREASED CONVECTION CHANCES EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
HIGHER FOOTHILLS WITH SOME MINOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PLAINS.
DRIER AIR NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WILL HELP TO STALL THE DEVELOPMENT
EARLY ON BUT WITH A WEAK CAP AND INCREASED MOISTURE FROM WESTWARD
MOVEMENT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND SMALL HAIL WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL THE PREDOMINANT THREAT
OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BUT WITH THE DRYLINE SETTING UP OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE MID 50S EXPECT
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH COULD DEVELOP. AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AS DOES SRH OVER THE
FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS COUNTIES SO ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COLORADO IS GOING TO BE UNDER WEAK WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN
BETWEEN THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED LAST NIGHT AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER UTAH TODAY. AT
THE SURFACE...PRESSURES WILL BE FALLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE DAY...INDUCING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND BY AFTERNOON
THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY
INDICATE 700-1000 J/KG OF CAPE...SO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INDICATED EAST OF A LIMON TO AKRON LINE...WHERE THE
STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE LOCATED. AREAS THAT SEE STRONG STORMS
DEVELOP COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING DEVELOP...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN LOCATIONS. CLOSER TO THE
FOOTHILLS SHOULD SEE A ROUND OF SHOWERS DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON
WHICH MOVES EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BEFORE THE AFTERNOON RUSH
HOUR GETS GOING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO
SHY OF NORMALS FOR THE DATE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEST BY FRIDAY.
SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN STATE BORDER WILL KEEP HIGHER
MOISTURE AND CAPE VALUES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS COMBINED
WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF
POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS OVER THIS AREA...WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES IN
EARLIER...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I70. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH MAY BE
PUSHED IN FASTER BY DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME
DIFFERENCE OF CHANCES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH THE NAM BECOMING
QUITE DRY. WILL CONTINUE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING AND UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD.

WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT AND MORE MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. WILL STILL HAVE SOME
AVAILABLE WEAK CAPE AROUND...LEAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
AS WELL. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA KEEP
CHANGING...HOWEVER CAN EXPECT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. A HALF TO ONE INCH WILL NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING MORE
UNDER HEAVIER STORMS. WILL HAVE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWING THE NON-NAM MODEL SOLUTIONS....AS THE NAM SEEMS TO
BE THE SLOWEST OF ALL TO PUSH THE SYSTEM THROUGH.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN A COOL DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AS
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE KEEPS A MORE STABLE COOLER UPSLOPE FLOW
REGIME OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL LIKELY SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO
LIKELY WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE PLAINS COULD SEE 80 OR ABOVE BY MONDAY. EXPECT A NORMAL
DIURNAL CONVECTION PATTERN THROUGH THESE DAYS AS SOME MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE RIDGE AS WELL AS SOME ADDITIONAL
BEING TRANSPORTED IN MONDAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 952 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MY 21Z IN THE VICINITY WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS BY 22Z OVER THE AIRPORT. CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW VFR BUT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANIED WITH WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 22 AND 24Z. A MID LEVEL BKN
DECK WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO
DRAINAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 952 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CURRENT RFC FORECAST HAS SOUTH PLATTE AT WELDONA BELOW FLOOD STAGE
WITH A CONTINUAL DOWNWARD TREND SO CANCELLED FLOOD WARNING FOR
THAT PORTION. FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTH PLATTE AT KERSEY AS
WELL AS CACHE LA POUDRE AT GREELEY CONTINUE. AFTERNOON STORMS
TODAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN HOWEVER THE ABOVE
MENTIONED RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THE FORECASTED TREND.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...BOWEN
HYDROLOGY...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 271611
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1011 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH MAKES IT WAY SOUTH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT WILL BRING
INCREASED CONVECTION CHANCES EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
HIGHER FOOTHILLS WITH SOME MINOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PLAINS.
DRIER AIR NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WILL HELP TO STALL THE DEVELOPMENT
EARLY ON BUT WITH A WEAK CAP AND INCREASED MOISTURE FROM WESTWARD
MOVEMENT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND SMALL HAIL WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL THE PREDOMINANT THREAT
OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BUT WITH THE DRYLINE SETTING UP OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE MID 50S EXPECT
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH COULD DEVELOP. AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AS DOES SRH OVER THE
FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS COUNTIES SO ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COLORADO IS GOING TO BE UNDER WEAK WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN
BETWEEN THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED LAST NIGHT AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER UTAH TODAY. AT
THE SURFACE...PRESSURES WILL BE FALLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE DAY...INDUCING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND BY AFTERNOON
THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY
INDICATE 700-1000 J/KG OF CAPE...SO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INDICATED EAST OF A LIMON TO AKRON LINE...WHERE THE
STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE LOCATED. AREAS THAT SEE STRONG STORMS
DEVELOP COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING DEVELOP...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN LOCATIONS. CLOSER TO THE
FOOTHILLS SHOULD SEE A ROUND OF SHOWERS DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON
WHICH MOVES EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BEFORE THE AFTERNOON RUSH
HOUR GETS GOING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO
SHY OF NORMALS FOR THE DATE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEST BY FRIDAY.
SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN STATE BORDER WILL KEEP HIGHER
MOISTURE AND CAPE VALUES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS COMBINED
WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF
POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS OVER THIS AREA...WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES IN
EARLIER...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I70. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH MAY BE
PUSHED IN FASTER BY DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME
DIFFERENCE OF CHANCES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH THE NAM BECOMING
QUITE DRY. WILL CONTINUE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING AND UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD.

WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT AND MORE MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. WILL STILL HAVE SOME
AVAILABLE WEAK CAPE AROUND...LEAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
AS WELL. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA KEEP
CHANGING...HOWEVER CAN EXPECT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. A HALF TO ONE INCH WILL NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING MORE
UNDER HEAVIER STORMS. WILL HAVE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWING THE NON-NAM MODEL SOLUTIONS....AS THE NAM SEEMS TO
BE THE SLOWEST OF ALL TO PUSH THE SYSTEM THROUGH.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN A COOL DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AS
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE KEEPS A MORE STABLE COOLER UPSLOPE FLOW
REGIME OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL LIKELY SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO
LIKELY WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE PLAINS COULD SEE 80 OR ABOVE BY MONDAY. EXPECT A NORMAL
DIURNAL CONVECTION PATTERN THROUGH THESE DAYS AS SOME MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE RIDGE AS WELL AS SOME ADDITIONAL
BEING TRANSPORTED IN MONDAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 952 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MY 21Z IN THE VICINITY WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS BY 22Z OVER THE AIRPORT. CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW VFR BUT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANIED WITH WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 22 AND 24Z. A MID LEVEL BKN
DECK WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO
DRAINAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 952 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CURRENT RFC FORECAST HAS SOUTH PLATTE AT WELDONA BELOW FLOOD STAGE
WITH A CONTINUAL DOWNWARD TREND SO CANCELLED FLOOD WARNING FOR
THAT PORTION. FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTH PLATTE AT KERSEY AS
WELL AS CACHE LA POUDRE AT GREELEY CONTINUE. AFTERNOON STORMS
TODAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN HOWEVER THE ABOVE
MENTIONED RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THE FORECASTED TREND.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...BOWEN
HYDROLOGY...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 271611
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1011 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH MAKES IT WAY SOUTH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT WILL BRING
INCREASED CONVECTION CHANCES EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
HIGHER FOOTHILLS WITH SOME MINOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PLAINS.
DRIER AIR NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WILL HELP TO STALL THE DEVELOPMENT
EARLY ON BUT WITH A WEAK CAP AND INCREASED MOISTURE FROM WESTWARD
MOVEMENT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND SMALL HAIL WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL THE PREDOMINANT THREAT
OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BUT WITH THE DRYLINE SETTING UP OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE MID 50S EXPECT
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH COULD DEVELOP. AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AS DOES SRH OVER THE
FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS COUNTIES SO ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COLORADO IS GOING TO BE UNDER WEAK WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN
BETWEEN THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED LAST NIGHT AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER UTAH TODAY. AT
THE SURFACE...PRESSURES WILL BE FALLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE DAY...INDUCING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND BY AFTERNOON
THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY
INDICATE 700-1000 J/KG OF CAPE...SO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INDICATED EAST OF A LIMON TO AKRON LINE...WHERE THE
STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE LOCATED. AREAS THAT SEE STRONG STORMS
DEVELOP COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING DEVELOP...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN LOCATIONS. CLOSER TO THE
FOOTHILLS SHOULD SEE A ROUND OF SHOWERS DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON
WHICH MOVES EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BEFORE THE AFTERNOON RUSH
HOUR GETS GOING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO
SHY OF NORMALS FOR THE DATE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEST BY FRIDAY.
SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN STATE BORDER WILL KEEP HIGHER
MOISTURE AND CAPE VALUES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS COMBINED
WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF
POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS OVER THIS AREA...WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES IN
EARLIER...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I70. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH MAY BE
PUSHED IN FASTER BY DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME
DIFFERENCE OF CHANCES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH THE NAM BECOMING
QUITE DRY. WILL CONTINUE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING AND UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD.

WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT AND MORE MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. WILL STILL HAVE SOME
AVAILABLE WEAK CAPE AROUND...LEAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
AS WELL. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA KEEP
CHANGING...HOWEVER CAN EXPECT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. A HALF TO ONE INCH WILL NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING MORE
UNDER HEAVIER STORMS. WILL HAVE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWING THE NON-NAM MODEL SOLUTIONS....AS THE NAM SEEMS TO
BE THE SLOWEST OF ALL TO PUSH THE SYSTEM THROUGH.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN A COOL DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AS
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE KEEPS A MORE STABLE COOLER UPSLOPE FLOW
REGIME OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL LIKELY SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO
LIKELY WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE PLAINS COULD SEE 80 OR ABOVE BY MONDAY. EXPECT A NORMAL
DIURNAL CONVECTION PATTERN THROUGH THESE DAYS AS SOME MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE RIDGE AS WELL AS SOME ADDITIONAL
BEING TRANSPORTED IN MONDAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 952 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MY 21Z IN THE VICINITY WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS BY 22Z OVER THE AIRPORT. CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW VFR BUT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANIED WITH WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 22 AND 24Z. A MID LEVEL BKN
DECK WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO
DRAINAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 952 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CURRENT RFC FORECAST HAS SOUTH PLATTE AT WELDONA BELOW FLOOD STAGE
WITH A CONTINUAL DOWNWARD TREND SO CANCELLED FLOOD WARNING FOR
THAT PORTION. FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTH PLATTE AT KERSEY AS
WELL AS CACHE LA POUDRE AT GREELEY CONTINUE. AFTERNOON STORMS
TODAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN HOWEVER THE ABOVE
MENTIONED RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THE FORECASTED TREND.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...BOWEN
HYDROLOGY...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 271042
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
442 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COLORADO IS GOING TO BE UNDER WEAK WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN
BETWEEN THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED LAST NIGHT AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER UTAH TODAY. AT
THE SURFACE...PRESSURES WILL BE FALLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE DAY...INDUCING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND BY AFTERNOON
THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY
INDICATE 700-1000 J/KG OF CAPE...SO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INDICATED EAST OF A LIMON TO AKRON LINE...WHERE THE
STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE LOCATED. AREAS THAT SEE STRONG STORMS
DEVELOP COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING DEVELOP...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN LOCATIONS. CLOSER TO THE
FOOTHILLS SHOULD SEE A ROUND OF SHOWERS DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON
WHICH MOVES EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BEFORE THE AFTERNOON RUSH
HOUR GETS GOING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO
SHY OF NORMALS FOR THE DATE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEST BY FRIDAY.
SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN STATE BORDER WILL KEEP HIGHER
MOISTURE AND CAPE VALUES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS COMBINED
WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF
POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS OVER THIS AREA...WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES IN
EARLIER...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I70. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH MAY BE
PUSHED IN FASTER BY DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME
DIFFERENCE OF CHANCES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH THE NAM BECOMING
QUITE DRY. WILL CONTINUE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING AND UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD.

WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT AND MORE MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. WILL STILL HAVE SOME
AVAILABLE WEAK CAPE AROUND...LEAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
AS WELL. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA KEEP
CHANGING...HOWEVER CAN EXPECT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. A HALF TO ONE INCH WILL NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING MORE
UNDER HEAVIER STORMS. WILL HAVE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWING THE NON-NAM MODEL SOLUTIONS....AS THE NAM SEEMS TO
BE THE SLOWEST OF ALL TO PUSH THE SYSTEM THROUGH.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN A COOL DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AS
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE KEEPS A MORE STABLE COOLER UPSLOPE FLOW
REGIME OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL LIKELY SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO
LIKELY WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE PLAINS COULD SEE 80 OR ABOVE BY MONDAY. EXPECT A NORMAL
DIURNAL CONVECTION PATTERN THROUGH THESE DAYS AS SOME MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE RIDGE AS WELL AS SOME ADDITIONAL
BEING TRANSPORTED IN MONDAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET AND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE
DENVER AREA WILL ONLY BE 20-30 PERCENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
OCCURRING WILL BE FROM 3 PM MDT TO ABOUT 7 PM MDT. STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO AVOID ANY SINGLE LOCATION RECEIVING
PROLONGED LOWER CEILINGS FROM THE PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

ONLY LIGHT RAINS FELL OVER THE CRITICAL AREAS OF LARIMER AND WELD
COUNTY LAST EVENING...SO THE SOUTH PLATTE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS
GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE WEAKLY
ORGANIZED...SO HEAVY RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SOIL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. THE FLOOD
WARNING ON THE CACHE LA POUDRE IN WELD COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE SEVERAL MORE DAYS...BUT THE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH
PLATTE RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM GREELEY MAY ONLY HAVE ONE MORE DAY TO
GO...BARRING ANY HEAVY RAINFALL.

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...DANKERS/KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 271042
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
442 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COLORADO IS GOING TO BE UNDER WEAK WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN
BETWEEN THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED LAST NIGHT AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER UTAH TODAY. AT
THE SURFACE...PRESSURES WILL BE FALLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE DAY...INDUCING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND BY AFTERNOON
THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY
INDICATE 700-1000 J/KG OF CAPE...SO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INDICATED EAST OF A LIMON TO AKRON LINE...WHERE THE
STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE LOCATED. AREAS THAT SEE STRONG STORMS
DEVELOP COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING DEVELOP...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN LOCATIONS. CLOSER TO THE
FOOTHILLS SHOULD SEE A ROUND OF SHOWERS DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON
WHICH MOVES EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BEFORE THE AFTERNOON RUSH
HOUR GETS GOING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO
SHY OF NORMALS FOR THE DATE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEST BY FRIDAY.
SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN STATE BORDER WILL KEEP HIGHER
MOISTURE AND CAPE VALUES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS COMBINED
WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF
POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS OVER THIS AREA...WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES IN
EARLIER...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I70. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH MAY BE
PUSHED IN FASTER BY DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME
DIFFERENCE OF CHANCES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH THE NAM BECOMING
QUITE DRY. WILL CONTINUE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING AND UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD.

WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT AND MORE MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. WILL STILL HAVE SOME
AVAILABLE WEAK CAPE AROUND...LEAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
AS WELL. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA KEEP
CHANGING...HOWEVER CAN EXPECT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. A HALF TO ONE INCH WILL NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING MORE
UNDER HEAVIER STORMS. WILL HAVE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWING THE NON-NAM MODEL SOLUTIONS....AS THE NAM SEEMS TO
BE THE SLOWEST OF ALL TO PUSH THE SYSTEM THROUGH.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN A COOL DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AS
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE KEEPS A MORE STABLE COOLER UPSLOPE FLOW
REGIME OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL LIKELY SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO
LIKELY WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE PLAINS COULD SEE 80 OR ABOVE BY MONDAY. EXPECT A NORMAL
DIURNAL CONVECTION PATTERN THROUGH THESE DAYS AS SOME MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE RIDGE AS WELL AS SOME ADDITIONAL
BEING TRANSPORTED IN MONDAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET AND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE
DENVER AREA WILL ONLY BE 20-30 PERCENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
OCCURRING WILL BE FROM 3 PM MDT TO ABOUT 7 PM MDT. STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO AVOID ANY SINGLE LOCATION RECEIVING
PROLONGED LOWER CEILINGS FROM THE PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

ONLY LIGHT RAINS FELL OVER THE CRITICAL AREAS OF LARIMER AND WELD
COUNTY LAST EVENING...SO THE SOUTH PLATTE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS
GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE WEAKLY
ORGANIZED...SO HEAVY RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SOIL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. THE FLOOD
WARNING ON THE CACHE LA POUDRE IN WELD COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE SEVERAL MORE DAYS...BUT THE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH
PLATTE RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM GREELEY MAY ONLY HAVE ONE MORE DAY TO
GO...BARRING ANY HEAVY RAINFALL.

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...DANKERS/KRIEDERMAN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 270250 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
850 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CORRECTED TYPOS

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM DENVER SOUTH TO
THE COLORADO-NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS CONVECTION IS SLOWLY MOVING
EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND
DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOST OF
THESE HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AND EXPECT THEM TO END BY MIDNIGHT. WILL
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

12Z MODELS DEPICTION OF CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON HAS DEVELOPED. WE ARE SEEING A FEW STORMS WITH
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT WITH CAPES OF 250 OR LESS
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF
CONVECTION BLOOMING OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING AND
LINGERING...AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING ELSEWHERE. HAVE BLENDED WITH
THE PUEBLO OFFICE TO SHOW SOME LINGERING STORMS THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE IS A CONCEPT OF
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING IN KANSAS THEN SLOWLY MOVING NORTH...THIS
FAVORED BY PLAINS OFFICES...AND HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED MIDDAY
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS INTERESTING...WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING FROM BOTH SIDES OF THE CWA. VERY LARGE CAPES OVER 5000
ARE FORECAST IN KANSAS WHILE EASTERN COLORADO WILL SEE SOME CAPES
OVER 1000. SPC SHOWS A BAND OF MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CAPES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
500-1000 AT DENVER...IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG EAST OF A STERLING TO
AKRON LINE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. WEAK MID AND UPPER QG ASCENT
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE TROF AXIS OVER WESTERN
WY/CO. THE TROF AXIS SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE
BY 18Z WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER
SHOWER VS TSTM COVERAGE. FORECAST CAPES OF 500-700 J/KG FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF DENVER. THE AMS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY STABLE OVER THE PLAINS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING.
SELY SFC WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. OVERALL LESS
SHOWERS/TSTMS COVERAGE WITH RIDGING ALOFT. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...DRIER AND WARMER. BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS MAY OCCUR

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 825 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DENVER AREA WILL END AROUND 03Z.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FEET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SEVERAL GAGES IN WELD COUNTY AND WESTERN MORGAN COUNTY REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOW AS STORMS SHOULD BE
MOVING AT 10-15KT AND INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT STRONG.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. STORMS WILL AGAIN MOVE AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A LITTLE
GREATER INSTABILITY...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
FLASH FLOODING IS UNLIKELY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...RTG





000
FXUS65 KBOU 270250 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
850 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CORRECTED TYPOS

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM DENVER SOUTH TO
THE COLORADO-NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS CONVECTION IS SLOWLY MOVING
EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND
DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOST OF
THESE HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AND EXPECT THEM TO END BY MIDNIGHT. WILL
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

12Z MODELS DEPICTION OF CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON HAS DEVELOPED. WE ARE SEEING A FEW STORMS WITH
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT WITH CAPES OF 250 OR LESS
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF
CONVECTION BLOOMING OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING AND
LINGERING...AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING ELSEWHERE. HAVE BLENDED WITH
THE PUEBLO OFFICE TO SHOW SOME LINGERING STORMS THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE IS A CONCEPT OF
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING IN KANSAS THEN SLOWLY MOVING NORTH...THIS
FAVORED BY PLAINS OFFICES...AND HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED MIDDAY
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS INTERESTING...WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING FROM BOTH SIDES OF THE CWA. VERY LARGE CAPES OVER 5000
ARE FORECAST IN KANSAS WHILE EASTERN COLORADO WILL SEE SOME CAPES
OVER 1000. SPC SHOWS A BAND OF MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CAPES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
500-1000 AT DENVER...IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG EAST OF A STERLING TO
AKRON LINE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. WEAK MID AND UPPER QG ASCENT
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE TROF AXIS OVER WESTERN
WY/CO. THE TROF AXIS SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE
BY 18Z WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER
SHOWER VS TSTM COVERAGE. FORECAST CAPES OF 500-700 J/KG FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF DENVER. THE AMS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY STABLE OVER THE PLAINS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING.
SELY SFC WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. OVERALL LESS
SHOWERS/TSTMS COVERAGE WITH RIDGING ALOFT. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...DRIER AND WARMER. BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS MAY OCCUR

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 825 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DENVER AREA WILL END AROUND 03Z.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FEET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SEVERAL GAGES IN WELD COUNTY AND WESTERN MORGAN COUNTY REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOW AS STORMS SHOULD BE
MOVING AT 10-15KT AND INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT STRONG.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. STORMS WILL AGAIN MOVE AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A LITTLE
GREATER INSTABILITY...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
FLASH FLOODING IS UNLIKELY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...RTG




000
FXUS65 KBOU 270225
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
825 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM DENVER SOUTH TO
THE COLORADO-NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS CONVECTION IS SLOWLY MOVING
EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND
DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOST OF
THESE HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AND EXPECT THEM TO END BY MIDNIGHT. WILL
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

12Z MODELS DEPICTION OF CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON HAS DEVELOPED. WE ARE SEEING A FEW STORMS WITH
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT WITH CAPES OF 250 OR LESS
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF
CONVECTION BLOOMING OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING AND
LINGERING...AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING ELSEWHERE. HAVE BLENDED WITH
THE PUEBLO OFFICE TO SHOW SOME LINGERING STORMS THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING THERE IS A CONCEPT OF
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING IN KANSAS THEN SLOWLY MOVING NORTH...THIS
FAVORED BY PLAINS OFFICES...AND HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED MIDDAY
STORMS ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS INTERESTING...WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING FROM BOTH SIDES OF THE CWA. VERY LARGE CAPES OVER 5000
ARE FORECAST IN KANSAS WHILE EASTERN COLORADO WILL SEE SOME CAPES
OVER 1000. SPC SHOWS A BAND OF MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CAPES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
500-1000 AT DENVER...IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG EAST OF A STERLING TO
AKRON LINE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. WEAK MID AND UPPER QG ASCENT
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE TROF AXIS OVER WESTERN
WY/CO. THE TROF AXIS SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE
BY 18Z WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER
SHOWER VS TSTM COVERAGE. FORECAST CAPES OF 500-700 J/KG FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF DENVER. THE AMS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY STABLE OVER THE PLAINS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING.
SELY SFC WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. OVERALL LESS
SHOWERS/TSTMS COVERAGE WITH RIDGING ALOFT. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...DRIER AND WARMER. BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS MAY OCCUR

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 825 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DENVER AREA WILL END AROUND 03Z.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FEET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SEVERAL GAGES IN WELD COUNTY AND WESTERN MORGAN COUNTY REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOW AS STORMS SHOULD BE
MOVING AT 10-15KT AND INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT STRONG.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. STORMS WILL GAIN MOVE AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A LITTLE
GREATER INSTABILITY...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT FLASH FLOODING IS UNLIKELY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...RTG





000
FXUS65 KBOU 270225
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
825 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM DENVER SOUTH TO
THE COLORADO-NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS CONVECTION IS SLOWLY MOVING
EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND
DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOST OF
THESE HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AND EXPECT THEM TO END BY MIDNIGHT. WILL
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

12Z MODELS DEPICTION OF CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON HAS DEVELOPED. WE ARE SEEING A FEW STORMS WITH
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT WITH CAPES OF 250 OR LESS
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF
CONVECTION BLOOMING OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING AND
LINGERING...AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING ELSEWHERE. HAVE BLENDED WITH
THE PUEBLO OFFICE TO SHOW SOME LINGERING STORMS THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING THERE IS A CONCEPT OF
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING IN KANSAS THEN SLOWLY MOVING NORTH...THIS
FAVORED BY PLAINS OFFICES...AND HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED MIDDAY
STORMS ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS INTERESTING...WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING FROM BOTH SIDES OF THE CWA. VERY LARGE CAPES OVER 5000
ARE FORECAST IN KANSAS WHILE EASTERN COLORADO WILL SEE SOME CAPES
OVER 1000. SPC SHOWS A BAND OF MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CAPES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
500-1000 AT DENVER...IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG EAST OF A STERLING TO
AKRON LINE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. WEAK MID AND UPPER QG ASCENT
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE TROF AXIS OVER WESTERN
WY/CO. THE TROF AXIS SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE
BY 18Z WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER
SHOWER VS TSTM COVERAGE. FORECAST CAPES OF 500-700 J/KG FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF DENVER. THE AMS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY STABLE OVER THE PLAINS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING.
SELY SFC WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. OVERALL LESS
SHOWERS/TSTMS COVERAGE WITH RIDGING ALOFT. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...DRIER AND WARMER. BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS MAY OCCUR

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 825 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DENVER AREA WILL END AROUND 03Z.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FEET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SEVERAL GAGES IN WELD COUNTY AND WESTERN MORGAN COUNTY REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOW AS STORMS SHOULD BE
MOVING AT 10-15KT AND INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT STRONG.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. STORMS WILL GAIN MOVE AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A LITTLE
GREATER INSTABILITY...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT FLASH FLOODING IS UNLIKELY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...RTG




000
FXUS65 KBOU 262125
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
325 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

12Z MODELS DEPICTION OF CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON HAS DEVELOPED. WE ARE SEEING A FEW STORMS WITH
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT WITH CAPES OF 250 OR LESS
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF
CONVECTION BLOOMING OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING AND
LINGERING...AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING ELSEWHERE. HAVE BLENDED WITH
THE PUEBLO OFFICE TO SHOW SOME LINGERING STORMS THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING THERE IS A CONCEPT OF
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING IN KANSAS THEN SLOWLY MOVING NORTH...THIS
FAVORED BY PLAINS OFFICES...AND HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED MIDDAY
STORMS ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS INTERESTING...WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING FROM BOTH SIDES OF THE CWA. VERY LARGE CAPES OVER 5000
ARE FORECAST IN KANSAS WHILE EASTERN COLORADO WILL SEE SOME CAPES
OVER 1000. SPC SHOWS A BAND OF MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CAPES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
500-1000 AT DENVER...IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG EAST OF A STERLING TO
AKRON LINE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. WEAK MID AND UPPER QG ASCENT
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE TROF AXIS OVER WESTERN
WY/CO. THE TROF AXIS SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE
BY 18Z WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER
SHOWER VS TSTM COVERAGE. FORECAST CAPES OF 500-700 J/KG FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF DENVER. THE AMS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY STABLE OVER THE PLAINS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING.
SELY SFC WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. OVERALL LESS
SHOWERS/TSTMS COVERAGE WITH RIDGING ALOFT. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...DRIER AND WARMER. BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY AFTN/EVNG...AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAY STILL SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE METRO AREA WILL END BY MID
EVENING...THEN REDEVELOP MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. GREATER
INSTABILITY MAY PROUCE STRONGER STORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SEVERAL GAGES IN WELD COUNTY AND WESTERN MORGAN COUNTY REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOW AS STORMS SHOULD BE
MOVING AT 10-15KT AND INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT STRONG.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. STORMS WILL GAIN MOVE AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A LITTLE
GREATER INSTABILITY...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT FLASH FLOODING IS UNLIKELY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RTG
HYDROLOGY...RTG





000
FXUS65 KBOU 262125
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
325 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

12Z MODELS DEPICTION OF CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON HAS DEVELOPED. WE ARE SEEING A FEW STORMS WITH
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT WITH CAPES OF 250 OR LESS
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF
CONVECTION BLOOMING OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING AND
LINGERING...AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING ELSEWHERE. HAVE BLENDED WITH
THE PUEBLO OFFICE TO SHOW SOME LINGERING STORMS THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING THERE IS A CONCEPT OF
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING IN KANSAS THEN SLOWLY MOVING NORTH...THIS
FAVORED BY PLAINS OFFICES...AND HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED MIDDAY
STORMS ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS INTERESTING...WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING FROM BOTH SIDES OF THE CWA. VERY LARGE CAPES OVER 5000
ARE FORECAST IN KANSAS WHILE EASTERN COLORADO WILL SEE SOME CAPES
OVER 1000. SPC SHOWS A BAND OF MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CAPES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
500-1000 AT DENVER...IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG EAST OF A STERLING TO
AKRON LINE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. WEAK MID AND UPPER QG ASCENT
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE TROF AXIS OVER WESTERN
WY/CO. THE TROF AXIS SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE
BY 18Z WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER
SHOWER VS TSTM COVERAGE. FORECAST CAPES OF 500-700 J/KG FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF DENVER. THE AMS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY STABLE OVER THE PLAINS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING.
SELY SFC WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. OVERALL LESS
SHOWERS/TSTMS COVERAGE WITH RIDGING ALOFT. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...DRIER AND WARMER. BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY AFTN/EVNG...AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAY STILL SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE METRO AREA WILL END BY MID
EVENING...THEN REDEVELOP MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. GREATER
INSTABILITY MAY PROUCE STRONGER STORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SEVERAL GAGES IN WELD COUNTY AND WESTERN MORGAN COUNTY REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOW AS STORMS SHOULD BE
MOVING AT 10-15KT AND INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT STRONG.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. STORMS WILL GAIN MOVE AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A LITTLE
GREATER INSTABILITY...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT FLASH FLOODING IS UNLIKELY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RTG
HYDROLOGY...RTG




000
FXUS65 KBOU 261643
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1043 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN UTAH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT...COMBINING
WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE...WITH A BIT LESS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS TREND...HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS A BIT HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND OVER PALMER
DIVIDE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF
COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS TROF WILL BE REPLACED BY
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT TODAY ACROSS COLORADO. THE TREND OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AND WARMER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND
70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME OF 70S
TEMPERATURES WE`VE SEEN SINCE MAY 14TH AT DENVER. THERE ARE LOW
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS THIS MORNING SO COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS. IN FACT...FNL JUST DEVELOPED SOME FOG
SO WILL ADD THIS TO FORECAST.

DESPITE THE RIDGING TODAY...THERE APPEARS TO STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ARE SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER UTAH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL WORK
ITS WAY INTO COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES ARE HOLDING
CLOSE TO .60 TENTHS OF AN INCH WHICH IS ACTUALLY A BIT UP FROM
YESTERDAY. QG FIELDS ARE WEAKLY SUBSIDENT THIS MORNING AND THEN
NEUTRAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO NOT MUCH HELP UPSTAIRS. BACK TO
A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS THEN CLEARING
OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED AS
SURFACE BASED CAPES GENERALLY UNDER 800J/KG ALONG WITH MARGINAL
WIND SHEAR. COULD BE HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AS WE SAW YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN
MORE SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL ALL
COMBINE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN TURN
CAPE VALUES. NAM SEEMS TOO HIGH WITH MORNING CAPES OF OVER 1000
J/KG OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. WILL STICK WITH MORE OF THE
DIURNAL TREND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGHER CAPES...WARMER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND A THETA E RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN CO MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS OUT IN THAT AREA.

THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE
STATE. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AND SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CO/NE/KS BORDERS...THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM CANADA WITH COOLER AIR AND UPSLOPE
FLOW TO FOLLOW A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. GFS AND EC BOTH SHOWING 0.5-1.0" OF QPF
THROUGH THE DAY...MOSTLY UP NEAR THE FOOTHILLS IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIME. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO STAY QUITE HIGH STILL...NEAR 9-10KFT.

HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SHOULD KEEP UPSLOPE
FLOW GOING SATURDAY...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF THOUGH WITH THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME MOVING OUT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE THE STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
BY MONDAY BASED ON FORECASTED 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND ENSEMBLE MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) I
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...IF ANY OF THE
AIRPORTS GET IMPACTED EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...AND BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN A LIGHT DRAINAGE WIND TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SEVERAL GAGES IN WELD COUNTY AND WESTERN MORGAN COUNTY REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD FLOODING AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOW AS STORMS SHOULD BE
MOVING AT 10-15KT AND INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT STRONG.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN/KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 261643
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1043 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN UTAH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT...COMBINING
WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE...WITH A BIT LESS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS TREND...HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS A BIT HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND OVER PALMER
DIVIDE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF
COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS TROF WILL BE REPLACED BY
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT TODAY ACROSS COLORADO. THE TREND OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AND WARMER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND
70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME OF 70S
TEMPERATURES WE`VE SEEN SINCE MAY 14TH AT DENVER. THERE ARE LOW
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS THIS MORNING SO COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS. IN FACT...FNL JUST DEVELOPED SOME FOG
SO WILL ADD THIS TO FORECAST.

DESPITE THE RIDGING TODAY...THERE APPEARS TO STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ARE SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER UTAH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL WORK
ITS WAY INTO COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES ARE HOLDING
CLOSE TO .60 TENTHS OF AN INCH WHICH IS ACTUALLY A BIT UP FROM
YESTERDAY. QG FIELDS ARE WEAKLY SUBSIDENT THIS MORNING AND THEN
NEUTRAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO NOT MUCH HELP UPSTAIRS. BACK TO
A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS THEN CLEARING
OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED AS
SURFACE BASED CAPES GENERALLY UNDER 800J/KG ALONG WITH MARGINAL
WIND SHEAR. COULD BE HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AS WE SAW YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN
MORE SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL ALL
COMBINE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN TURN
CAPE VALUES. NAM SEEMS TOO HIGH WITH MORNING CAPES OF OVER 1000
J/KG OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. WILL STICK WITH MORE OF THE
DIURNAL TREND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGHER CAPES...WARMER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND A THETA E RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN CO MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS OUT IN THAT AREA.

THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE
STATE. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AND SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CO/NE/KS BORDERS...THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM CANADA WITH COOLER AIR AND UPSLOPE
FLOW TO FOLLOW A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. GFS AND EC BOTH SHOWING 0.5-1.0" OF QPF
THROUGH THE DAY...MOSTLY UP NEAR THE FOOTHILLS IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIME. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO STAY QUITE HIGH STILL...NEAR 9-10KFT.

HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SHOULD KEEP UPSLOPE
FLOW GOING SATURDAY...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF THOUGH WITH THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME MOVING OUT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE THE STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
BY MONDAY BASED ON FORECASTED 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND ENSEMBLE MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) I
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...IF ANY OF THE
AIRPORTS GET IMPACTED EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...AND BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN A LIGHT DRAINAGE WIND TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SEVERAL GAGES IN WELD COUNTY AND WESTERN MORGAN COUNTY REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD FLOODING AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOW AS STORMS SHOULD BE
MOVING AT 10-15KT AND INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT STRONG.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN/KRIEDERMAN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 261643
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1043 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN UTAH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT...COMBINING
WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE...WITH A BIT LESS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS TREND...HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS A BIT HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND OVER PALMER
DIVIDE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF
COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS TROF WILL BE REPLACED BY
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT TODAY ACROSS COLORADO. THE TREND OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AND WARMER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND
70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME OF 70S
TEMPERATURES WE`VE SEEN SINCE MAY 14TH AT DENVER. THERE ARE LOW
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS THIS MORNING SO COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS. IN FACT...FNL JUST DEVELOPED SOME FOG
SO WILL ADD THIS TO FORECAST.

DESPITE THE RIDGING TODAY...THERE APPEARS TO STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ARE SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER UTAH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL WORK
ITS WAY INTO COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES ARE HOLDING
CLOSE TO .60 TENTHS OF AN INCH WHICH IS ACTUALLY A BIT UP FROM
YESTERDAY. QG FIELDS ARE WEAKLY SUBSIDENT THIS MORNING AND THEN
NEUTRAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO NOT MUCH HELP UPSTAIRS. BACK TO
A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS THEN CLEARING
OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED AS
SURFACE BASED CAPES GENERALLY UNDER 800J/KG ALONG WITH MARGINAL
WIND SHEAR. COULD BE HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AS WE SAW YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN
MORE SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL ALL
COMBINE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN TURN
CAPE VALUES. NAM SEEMS TOO HIGH WITH MORNING CAPES OF OVER 1000
J/KG OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. WILL STICK WITH MORE OF THE
DIURNAL TREND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGHER CAPES...WARMER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND A THETA E RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN CO MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS OUT IN THAT AREA.

THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE
STATE. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AND SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CO/NE/KS BORDERS...THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM CANADA WITH COOLER AIR AND UPSLOPE
FLOW TO FOLLOW A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. GFS AND EC BOTH SHOWING 0.5-1.0" OF QPF
THROUGH THE DAY...MOSTLY UP NEAR THE FOOTHILLS IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIME. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO STAY QUITE HIGH STILL...NEAR 9-10KFT.

HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SHOULD KEEP UPSLOPE
FLOW GOING SATURDAY...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF THOUGH WITH THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME MOVING OUT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE THE STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
BY MONDAY BASED ON FORECASTED 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND ENSEMBLE MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) I
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...IF ANY OF THE
AIRPORTS GET IMPACTED EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...AND BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN A LIGHT DRAINAGE WIND TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SEVERAL GAGES IN WELD COUNTY AND WESTERN MORGAN COUNTY REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD FLOODING AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOW AS STORMS SHOULD BE
MOVING AT 10-15KT AND INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT STRONG.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN/KRIEDERMAN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 260942
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
342 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF
COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS TROF WILL BE REPLACED BY
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT TODAY ACROSS COLORADO. THE TREND OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AND WARMER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND
70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME OF 70S
TEMPERATURES WE`VE SEEN SINCE MAY 14TH AT DENVER. THERE ARE LOW
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS THIS MORNING SO COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS. IN FACT...FNL JUST DEVELOPED SOME FOG
SO WILL ADD THIS TO FORECAST.

DESPITE THE RIDGING TODAY...THERE APPEARS TO STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ARE SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER UTAH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL WORK
ITS WAY INTO COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES ARE HOLDING
CLOSE TO .60 TENTHS OF AN INCH WHICH IS ACTUALLY A BIT UP FROM
YESTERDAY. QG FIELDS ARE WEAKLY SUBSIDENT THIS MORNING AND THEN
NEUTRAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO NOT MUCH HELP UPSTAIRS. BACK TO
A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS THEN CLEARING
OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED AS
SURFACE BASED CAPES GENERALLY UNDER 800J/KG ALONG WITH MARGINAL
WIND SHEAR. COULD BE HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AS WE SAW YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN
MORE SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL ALL
COMBINE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN TURN
CAPE VALUES. NAM SEEMS TOO HIGH WITH MORNING CAPES OF OVER 1000
J/KG OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. WILL STICK WITH MORE OF THE
DIURNAL TREND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGHER CAPES...WARMER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND A THETA E RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN CO MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS OUT IN THAT AREA.

THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE
STATE. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AND SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CO/NE/KS BORDERS...THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM CANADA WITH COOLER AIR AND UPSLOPE
FLOW TO FOLLOW A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. GFS AND EC BOTH SHOWING 0.5-1.0" OF QPF
THROUGH THE DAY...MOSTLY UP NEAR THE FOOTHILLS IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIME. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO STAY QUITE HIGH STILL...NEAR 9-10KFT.

HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SHOULD KEEP UPSLOPE
FLOW GOING SATURDAY...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF THOUGH WITH THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME MOVING OUT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE THE STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
BY MONDAY BASED ON FORECASTED 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND ENSEMBLE MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) I
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING MID/HI LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE W-NW FLOW. APPEARS STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED TODAY WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO A LIGHT EASTERLY
COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

RIVER LEVELS REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN ACROSS THE CACHE LA POUDRE AT GREELEY AND THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT KERSEY AND WELDONA. FLOOD WARNING WAS
CANCELLED LAST NIGHT AT BALZAC AS LEVELS DROPPED JUST BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AND ARE REMAINING STEADY OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTH PLATTE AT
DENVER AND HENDERSON TOOK A SPIKE UPWARDS LAST EVENING FROM
YESTERDAYS STORMS BUT NOW TRENDING DOWNWARD AGAIN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINS. FLASH FLOOD
THREAT LOW WITH AS STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING AT 10-15KT AND
INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT STRONG.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN/KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 260942
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
342 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF
COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS TROF WILL BE REPLACED BY
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT TODAY ACROSS COLORADO. THE TREND OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AND WARMER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND
70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME OF 70S
TEMPERATURES WE`VE SEEN SINCE MAY 14TH AT DENVER. THERE ARE LOW
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS THIS MORNING SO COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS. IN FACT...FNL JUST DEVELOPED SOME FOG
SO WILL ADD THIS TO FORECAST.

DESPITE THE RIDGING TODAY...THERE APPEARS TO STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ARE SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER UTAH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL WORK
ITS WAY INTO COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES ARE HOLDING
CLOSE TO .60 TENTHS OF AN INCH WHICH IS ACTUALLY A BIT UP FROM
YESTERDAY. QG FIELDS ARE WEAKLY SUBSIDENT THIS MORNING AND THEN
NEUTRAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO NOT MUCH HELP UPSTAIRS. BACK TO
A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS THEN CLEARING
OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED AS
SURFACE BASED CAPES GENERALLY UNDER 800J/KG ALONG WITH MARGINAL
WIND SHEAR. COULD BE HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AS WE SAW YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN
MORE SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL ALL
COMBINE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN TURN
CAPE VALUES. NAM SEEMS TOO HIGH WITH MORNING CAPES OF OVER 1000
J/KG OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. WILL STICK WITH MORE OF THE
DIURNAL TREND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGHER CAPES...WARMER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND A THETA E RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN CO MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS OUT IN THAT AREA.

THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE
STATE. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AND SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CO/NE/KS BORDERS...THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM CANADA WITH COOLER AIR AND UPSLOPE
FLOW TO FOLLOW A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. GFS AND EC BOTH SHOWING 0.5-1.0" OF QPF
THROUGH THE DAY...MOSTLY UP NEAR THE FOOTHILLS IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIME. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO STAY QUITE HIGH STILL...NEAR 9-10KFT.

HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SHOULD KEEP UPSLOPE
FLOW GOING SATURDAY...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF THOUGH WITH THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME MOVING OUT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE THE STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
BY MONDAY BASED ON FORECASTED 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND ENSEMBLE MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) I
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING MID/HI LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE W-NW FLOW. APPEARS STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED TODAY WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO A LIGHT EASTERLY
COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

RIVER LEVELS REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN ACROSS THE CACHE LA POUDRE AT GREELEY AND THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT KERSEY AND WELDONA. FLOOD WARNING WAS
CANCELLED LAST NIGHT AT BALZAC AS LEVELS DROPPED JUST BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AND ARE REMAINING STEADY OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTH PLATTE AT
DENVER AND HENDERSON TOOK A SPIKE UPWARDS LAST EVENING FROM
YESTERDAYS STORMS BUT NOW TRENDING DOWNWARD AGAIN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINS. FLASH FLOOD
THREAT LOW WITH AS STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING AT 10-15KT AND
INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT STRONG.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN/KRIEDERMAN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 260942
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
342 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF
COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS TROF WILL BE REPLACED BY
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT TODAY ACROSS COLORADO. THE TREND OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AND WARMER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND
70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME OF 70S
TEMPERATURES WE`VE SEEN SINCE MAY 14TH AT DENVER. THERE ARE LOW
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS THIS MORNING SO COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS. IN FACT...FNL JUST DEVELOPED SOME FOG
SO WILL ADD THIS TO FORECAST.

DESPITE THE RIDGING TODAY...THERE APPEARS TO STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ARE SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER UTAH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL WORK
ITS WAY INTO COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES ARE HOLDING
CLOSE TO .60 TENTHS OF AN INCH WHICH IS ACTUALLY A BIT UP FROM
YESTERDAY. QG FIELDS ARE WEAKLY SUBSIDENT THIS MORNING AND THEN
NEUTRAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO NOT MUCH HELP UPSTAIRS. BACK TO
A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS THEN CLEARING
OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED AS
SURFACE BASED CAPES GENERALLY UNDER 800J/KG ALONG WITH MARGINAL
WIND SHEAR. COULD BE HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AS WE SAW YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN
MORE SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL ALL
COMBINE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN TURN
CAPE VALUES. NAM SEEMS TOO HIGH WITH MORNING CAPES OF OVER 1000
J/KG OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. WILL STICK WITH MORE OF THE
DIURNAL TREND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGHER CAPES...WARMER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND A THETA E RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN CO MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS OUT IN THAT AREA.

THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE
STATE. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AND SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CO/NE/KS BORDERS...THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM CANADA WITH COOLER AIR AND UPSLOPE
FLOW TO FOLLOW A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. GFS AND EC BOTH SHOWING 0.5-1.0" OF QPF
THROUGH THE DAY...MOSTLY UP NEAR THE FOOTHILLS IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIME. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO STAY QUITE HIGH STILL...NEAR 9-10KFT.

HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SHOULD KEEP UPSLOPE
FLOW GOING SATURDAY...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF THOUGH WITH THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME MOVING OUT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE THE STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
BY MONDAY BASED ON FORECASTED 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND ENSEMBLE MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) I
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING MID/HI LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE W-NW FLOW. APPEARS STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED TODAY WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO A LIGHT EASTERLY
COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

RIVER LEVELS REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN ACROSS THE CACHE LA POUDRE AT GREELEY AND THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT KERSEY AND WELDONA. FLOOD WARNING WAS
CANCELLED LAST NIGHT AT BALZAC AS LEVELS DROPPED JUST BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AND ARE REMAINING STEADY OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTH PLATTE AT
DENVER AND HENDERSON TOOK A SPIKE UPWARDS LAST EVENING FROM
YESTERDAYS STORMS BUT NOW TRENDING DOWNWARD AGAIN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINS. FLASH FLOOD
THREAT LOW WITH AS STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING AT 10-15KT AND
INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT STRONG.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN/KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 260942
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
342 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF
COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS TROF WILL BE REPLACED BY
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT TODAY ACROSS COLORADO. THE TREND OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AND WARMER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND
70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME OF 70S
TEMPERATURES WE`VE SEEN SINCE MAY 14TH AT DENVER. THERE ARE LOW
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS THIS MORNING SO COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS. IN FACT...FNL JUST DEVELOPED SOME FOG
SO WILL ADD THIS TO FORECAST.

DESPITE THE RIDGING TODAY...THERE APPEARS TO STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ARE SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER UTAH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL WORK
ITS WAY INTO COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES ARE HOLDING
CLOSE TO .60 TENTHS OF AN INCH WHICH IS ACTUALLY A BIT UP FROM
YESTERDAY. QG FIELDS ARE WEAKLY SUBSIDENT THIS MORNING AND THEN
NEUTRAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO NOT MUCH HELP UPSTAIRS. BACK TO
A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS THEN CLEARING
OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED AS
SURFACE BASED CAPES GENERALLY UNDER 800J/KG ALONG WITH MARGINAL
WIND SHEAR. COULD BE HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AS WE SAW YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN
MORE SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL ALL
COMBINE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN TURN
CAPE VALUES. NAM SEEMS TOO HIGH WITH MORNING CAPES OF OVER 1000
J/KG OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. WILL STICK WITH MORE OF THE
DIURNAL TREND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGHER CAPES...WARMER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND A THETA E RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN CO MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS OUT IN THAT AREA.

THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE
STATE. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AND SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CO/NE/KS BORDERS...THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM CANADA WITH COOLER AIR AND UPSLOPE
FLOW TO FOLLOW A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. GFS AND EC BOTH SHOWING 0.5-1.0" OF QPF
THROUGH THE DAY...MOSTLY UP NEAR THE FOOTHILLS IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIME. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO STAY QUITE HIGH STILL...NEAR 9-10KFT.

HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SHOULD KEEP UPSLOPE
FLOW GOING SATURDAY...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF THOUGH WITH THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME MOVING OUT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE THE STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
BY MONDAY BASED ON FORECASTED 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND ENSEMBLE MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) I
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING MID/HI LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE W-NW FLOW. APPEARS STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED TODAY WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO A LIGHT EASTERLY
COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

RIVER LEVELS REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN ACROSS THE CACHE LA POUDRE AT GREELEY AND THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT KERSEY AND WELDONA. FLOOD WARNING WAS
CANCELLED LAST NIGHT AT BALZAC AS LEVELS DROPPED JUST BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AND ARE REMAINING STEADY OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTH PLATTE AT
DENVER AND HENDERSON TOOK A SPIKE UPWARDS LAST EVENING FROM
YESTERDAYS STORMS BUT NOW TRENDING DOWNWARD AGAIN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINS. FLASH FLOOD
THREAT LOW WITH AS STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING AT 10-15KT AND
INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT STRONG.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN/KRIEDERMAN





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