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000
FXUS65 KBOU 210925
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
325 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA AND WILL LIFT
INTO MONTANA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL TAKE THE MAJORITY OF LIFT
AND MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT WEAK LIFT TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM QG ASCENT AND A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT. AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES MAINLY
UNDER 300 J/KG. ALSO...LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPER THAN 7 J/KG FROM
THE SURFACE TO 400MB. NOTHING GREAT BUT ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS.

PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIFT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE FOR THE
FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS...IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST ONTO THE FRONT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. MOISTURE AND LIFT IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY SCATTERED OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT RECEIVING PRECIPITATION
WITH POPS IN THE 40 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON WED WITH WLY
FLOW ALOFT.  THERE IS SOME WK MID LVL QG ASCENT IN THE MORNING OVER
THE PLAINS WHICH MAY PRODUCE A CHC OF SHOWERS.  IN THE MTNS WK
OROGRAPHICS COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHC
OF SHOWERS AS WELL THRU THE AFTN HOURS.  BY AFTN THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY OVER NERN CO FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.  AS FOR
HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 OVER THE PLAINS.

BY THU AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SRN
ROCKIES AND THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRI.  THIS WILL
LEAD TO A DRY WX PTRN WITH A WARMING TREND.  HIGHS ON THU WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER NERN CO WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
POSSIBLE ON FRI.

ON SAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH
INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT.  THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH
ABV NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING AS READINGS ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS NERN CO.  FOR SUN INTO SUN NIGHT BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE AREA.
THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE VS THE GFS.  FOR NOW WILL
MENTION A CHC OF PCPN IN THE MTNS WITH A SLIGHT CHC OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA WITH THE MAIN FOCUS LATE SUN AFTN THRU SUN NIGHT.  A WEAK
FNT MAY MOVE INTO NERN CO ON SUN WHICH MAY DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR MON THE ECMWF STILL HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT EAST OF THE AREA.  FOR NOW WILL JUST
MENTION SOME LOW POPS.  MEANWHILE BOTH MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR WHICH WOULD DROP HIGHS BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL
OVER NERN CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WIND WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AT KDEN WILL DECREASE AFTER
12Z...BUT REMAIN SOUTHERLY. BY 18Z WINDS...MAY TURN SOUTHEASTERLY.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 21Z. CLOUDS WILL THEN
INCREASE AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER 22Z AND INTO
TUESDAY. NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO EXPECT
CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE DENVER AREA AROUND 00Z...CAUSING WINDS TO TURN
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 210218
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
818 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MEAGER CONVECTION IS GONE AS WELL AS NEARLY ALL THE CLOUDS AT
THIS TIME. THE UPSTREAM ON THE SATELLITE PICTURES IS QUITE SPARSE
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS WELL. WILL ADJUST CLOUD
COVER AND ZERO OUT POPS AND WEATHER. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE
NOT LOOKING ALL THAT BAD SO WE`LL KEEP THEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

ANOTHER WARM DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST BRINGS IN
WARM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH ON
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. EXPECT THE
SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH AT WEAKER SPEEDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SOME
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT SOME OF THESE MOVING NORTHEAST ONTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. BELIEVE THE
AIRMASS DOWN BELOW IS TOO STABLE AND THE ONLY EFFECT MAY BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW. HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TO BRING AREAS OF FOG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...MAINLY
OVER LINCOLN AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THE WRF SIMULATED
FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THIS NICELY...SHOWING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE STATE
TUESDAY TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING
THEN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK CAPE AND UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY...WHILE THE INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA BY
TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
TRAILING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLUENCE
FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WITH THE COOLER AIR AND INCREASED
MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOWSHOWERS WILL FALL TO 9000FT
WHERE A FEW INCHES IN ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NE COLORADO EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL AID IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASED CAPE AND DECENT QG...CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETTER ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL STILL BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PRECEDING FEW DAYS AND RETURN TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING BEHIND IT AS ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
IN WITH PREDOMINANT WNW FLOW. THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH SETUP WILL AID IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S WHICH COULD BRING RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FOR
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND BEYOND...EXTENDED MODELS ARE BRINGING DOWN
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL JUST BE ENTERING THE NW REGION OF
THE STATE BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRETTY DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL GOING STRONG AT DIA. THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT BUT STILL STAY AROUND 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT.  NO CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...RJK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 210218
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
818 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MEAGER CONVECTION IS GONE AS WELL AS NEARLY ALL THE CLOUDS AT
THIS TIME. THE UPSTREAM ON THE SATELLITE PICTURES IS QUITE SPARSE
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS WELL. WILL ADJUST CLOUD
COVER AND ZERO OUT POPS AND WEATHER. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE
NOT LOOKING ALL THAT BAD SO WE`LL KEEP THEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

ANOTHER WARM DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST BRINGS IN
WARM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH ON
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. EXPECT THE
SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH AT WEAKER SPEEDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SOME
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT SOME OF THESE MOVING NORTHEAST ONTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. BELIEVE THE
AIRMASS DOWN BELOW IS TOO STABLE AND THE ONLY EFFECT MAY BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW. HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TO BRING AREAS OF FOG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...MAINLY
OVER LINCOLN AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THE WRF SIMULATED
FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THIS NICELY...SHOWING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE STATE
TUESDAY TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING
THEN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK CAPE AND UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY...WHILE THE INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA BY
TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
TRAILING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLUENCE
FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WITH THE COOLER AIR AND INCREASED
MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOWSHOWERS WILL FALL TO 9000FT
WHERE A FEW INCHES IN ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NE COLORADO EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL AID IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASED CAPE AND DECENT QG...CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETTER ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL STILL BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PRECEDING FEW DAYS AND RETURN TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING BEHIND IT AS ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
IN WITH PREDOMINANT WNW FLOW. THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH SETUP WILL AID IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S WHICH COULD BRING RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FOR
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND BEYOND...EXTENDED MODELS ARE BRINGING DOWN
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL JUST BE ENTERING THE NW REGION OF
THE STATE BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRETTY DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL GOING STRONG AT DIA. THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT BUT STILL STAY AROUND 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT.  NO CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...RJK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 210218
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
818 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MEAGER CONVECTION IS GONE AS WELL AS NEARLY ALL THE CLOUDS AT
THIS TIME. THE UPSTREAM ON THE SATELLITE PICTURES IS QUITE SPARSE
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS WELL. WILL ADJUST CLOUD
COVER AND ZERO OUT POPS AND WEATHER. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE
NOT LOOKING ALL THAT BAD SO WE`LL KEEP THEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

ANOTHER WARM DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST BRINGS IN
WARM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH ON
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. EXPECT THE
SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH AT WEAKER SPEEDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SOME
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT SOME OF THESE MOVING NORTHEAST ONTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. BELIEVE THE
AIRMASS DOWN BELOW IS TOO STABLE AND THE ONLY EFFECT MAY BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW. HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TO BRING AREAS OF FOG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...MAINLY
OVER LINCOLN AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THE WRF SIMULATED
FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THIS NICELY...SHOWING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE STATE
TUESDAY TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING
THEN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK CAPE AND UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY...WHILE THE INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA BY
TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
TRAILING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLUENCE
FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WITH THE COOLER AIR AND INCREASED
MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOWSHOWERS WILL FALL TO 9000FT
WHERE A FEW INCHES IN ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NE COLORADO EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL AID IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASED CAPE AND DECENT QG...CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETTER ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL STILL BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PRECEDING FEW DAYS AND RETURN TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING BEHIND IT AS ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
IN WITH PREDOMINANT WNW FLOW. THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH SETUP WILL AID IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S WHICH COULD BRING RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FOR
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND BEYOND...EXTENDED MODELS ARE BRINGING DOWN
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL JUST BE ENTERING THE NW REGION OF
THE STATE BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRETTY DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL GOING STRONG AT DIA. THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT BUT STILL STAY AROUND 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT.  NO CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 202109
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

ANOTHER WARM DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST BRINGS IN
WARM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH ON
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. EXPECT THE
SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH AT WEAKER SPEEDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SOME
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT SOME OF THESE MOVING NORTHEAST ONTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. BELIEVE THE
AIRMASS DOWN BELOW IS TOO STABLE AND THE ONLY EFFECT MAY BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW. HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TO BRING AREAS OF FOG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...MAINLY
OVER LINCOLN AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THE WRF SIMULATED
FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THIS NICELY...SHOWING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE STATE
TUESDAY TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING
THEN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK CAPE AND UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY...WHILE THE INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA BY
TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
TRAILING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLUENCE
FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WITH THE COOLER AIR AND INCREASED
MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOWSHOWERS WILL FALL TO 9000FT
WHERE A FEW INCHES IN ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NE COLORADO EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL AID IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASED CAPE AND DECENT QG...CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETTER ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL STILL BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PRECEDING FEW DAYS AND RETURN TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING BEHIND IT AS ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
IN WITH PREDOMINANT WNW FLOW. THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH SETUP WILL AID IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S WHICH COULD BRING RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FOR
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND BEYOND...EXTENDED MODELS ARE BRINGING DOWN
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL JUST BE ENTERING THE NW REGION OF
THE STATE BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SSELY WINDS THIS
AFTN/EVNG WILL BACK TO SSWLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KDEN AND KAPA UNTIL 03Z ...WHERE KBJC WILL
BE LIGHTER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OUTFLOW GUSTS FROM CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD TURN WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AS
SOME RECENT HIGH RES MODELS SHOW. NOT CONFIDENT THIS WILL HAPPEN
AT THIS POINT...SO WILL KEEP WINDS SLY IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL
LIKELY STILL BE SLY TUESDAY...BUT LIGHTER SPEEDS. SYNTHETIC
SATELLITE HINTS AT SOME STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF KDEN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 202109
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

ANOTHER WARM DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST BRINGS IN
WARM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH ON
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. EXPECT THE
SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH AT WEAKER SPEEDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SOME
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT SOME OF THESE MOVING NORTHEAST ONTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. BELIEVE THE
AIRMASS DOWN BELOW IS TOO STABLE AND THE ONLY EFFECT MAY BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW. HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TO BRING AREAS OF FOG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...MAINLY
OVER LINCOLN AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THE WRF SIMULATED
FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THIS NICELY...SHOWING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE STATE
TUESDAY TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING
THEN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK CAPE AND UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY...WHILE THE INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA BY
TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
TRAILING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLUENCE
FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WITH THE COOLER AIR AND INCREASED
MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOWSHOWERS WILL FALL TO 9000FT
WHERE A FEW INCHES IN ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NE COLORADO EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL AID IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASED CAPE AND DECENT QG...CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETTER ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL STILL BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PRECEDING FEW DAYS AND RETURN TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING BEHIND IT AS ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
IN WITH PREDOMINANT WNW FLOW. THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH SETUP WILL AID IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S WHICH COULD BRING RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FOR
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND BEYOND...EXTENDED MODELS ARE BRINGING DOWN
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL JUST BE ENTERING THE NW REGION OF
THE STATE BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SSELY WINDS THIS
AFTN/EVNG WILL BACK TO SSWLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KDEN AND KAPA UNTIL 03Z ...WHERE KBJC WILL
BE LIGHTER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OUTFLOW GUSTS FROM CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD TURN WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AS
SOME RECENT HIGH RES MODELS SHOW. NOT CONFIDENT THIS WILL HAPPEN
AT THIS POINT...SO WILL KEEP WINDS SLY IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL
LIKELY STILL BE SLY TUESDAY...BUT LIGHTER SPEEDS. SYNTHETIC
SATELLITE HINTS AT SOME STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF KDEN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 201657
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1057 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP...CUMULUS ALREADY BUILDING...AND MONITORING THE
HRRR AND RUC TRENDS FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE
COULD SEE SOME MOVING EAST OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS...BUT BELIEVE
THIS WILL END ONLY IN GUSTY WINDS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW SLIGHTLY AS MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE AND SEEING MOISTURE MOVE UP FROM THE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWA WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF COLORADO AND A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED LOW OVER SERN AZ/SWRN NEW MX. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO THIS
AFTN. IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE MDLS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
QPF THIS AFTN. SYNTHETIC SATELLITE SUGGESTS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVENING. FOR THIS REASON WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS
THERE...BEST CHC WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF I-70. ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...IT WILL AGAIN BE UNSEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...BREEZY EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 WITH
SSELY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTN. THE MDLS DO HINT AT SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME POTENTIAL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT EAST
AND SOUTH OF LIMON LATE TONIGHT. WL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THE
FINAL DETERMINATION ON THIS BEFORE ADDRESSING IT IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEVADA EARLY TUESDAY
INTO MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE MILD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. IT WILL ALSO
BE BREEZY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONTO THE FRONT RANGE AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVING BEEN TRENDING NORTH ON
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SO WITH THE TRACK BEING WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO...JUST EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART. MAY BE
SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AROUND 9000 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND PASSES. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF EASTERN COLORADO
DUE TO THE SYSTEM BEING FARTHER AWAY FROM COLORADO. HIGHS WILL RUN
10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICK
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME THURSDAY...BUT THE
WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE 70S. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME
LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS WHEN THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SLY WINDS WILL BECOME SSELY
THIS AFTN/EVNG...THEN BACK TO SSWLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. COULD SEE
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KDEN AND KAPA IN THE 21-03Z
WINDOW...WHERE KBJC WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER. WINDS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLY TUESDAY...BUT LIGHTER SPEEDS.  SYNTHETIC SATELLITE
HINTS AT SOME STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
KDEN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 201657
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1057 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP...CUMULUS ALREADY BUILDING...AND MONITORING THE
HRRR AND RUC TRENDS FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE
COULD SEE SOME MOVING EAST OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS...BUT BELIEVE
THIS WILL END ONLY IN GUSTY WINDS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW SLIGHTLY AS MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE AND SEEING MOISTURE MOVE UP FROM THE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWA WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF COLORADO AND A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED LOW OVER SERN AZ/SWRN NEW MX. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO THIS
AFTN. IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE MDLS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
QPF THIS AFTN. SYNTHETIC SATELLITE SUGGESTS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVENING. FOR THIS REASON WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS
THERE...BEST CHC WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF I-70. ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...IT WILL AGAIN BE UNSEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...BREEZY EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 WITH
SSELY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTN. THE MDLS DO HINT AT SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME POTENTIAL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT EAST
AND SOUTH OF LIMON LATE TONIGHT. WL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THE
FINAL DETERMINATION ON THIS BEFORE ADDRESSING IT IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEVADA EARLY TUESDAY
INTO MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE MILD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. IT WILL ALSO
BE BREEZY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONTO THE FRONT RANGE AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVING BEEN TRENDING NORTH ON
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SO WITH THE TRACK BEING WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO...JUST EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART. MAY BE
SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AROUND 9000 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND PASSES. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF EASTERN COLORADO
DUE TO THE SYSTEM BEING FARTHER AWAY FROM COLORADO. HIGHS WILL RUN
10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICK
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME THURSDAY...BUT THE
WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE 70S. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME
LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS WHEN THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SLY WINDS WILL BECOME SSELY
THIS AFTN/EVNG...THEN BACK TO SSWLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. COULD SEE
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KDEN AND KAPA IN THE 21-03Z
WINDOW...WHERE KBJC WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER. WINDS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLY TUESDAY...BUT LIGHTER SPEEDS.  SYNTHETIC SATELLITE
HINTS AT SOME STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
KDEN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 200944
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWA WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF COLORADO AND A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED LOW OVER SERN AZ/SWRN NEW MX. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO THIS
AFTN. IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE MDLS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
QPF THIS AFTN. SYNTHETIC SATELLITE SUGGESTS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVENING. FOR THIS REASON WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS
THERE...BEST CHC WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF I-70. ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...IT WILL AGAIN BE UNSEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...BREEZY EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 WITH
SSELY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTN. THE MDLS DO HINT AT SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME POTENTIAL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT EAST
AND SOUTH OF LIMON LATE TONIGHT. WL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THE
FINAL DETERMINATION ON THIS BEFORE ADDRESSING IT IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEVADA EARLY TUESDAY
INTO MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE MILD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. IT WILL ALSO
BE BREEZY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONTO THE FRONT RANGE AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVING BEEN TRENDING NORTH ON
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SO WITH THE TRACK BEING WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO...JUST EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART. MAY BE
SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AROUND 9000 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND PASSES. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF EASTERN COLORADO
DUE TO THE SYSTEM BEING FARTHER AWAY FROM COLORADO. HIGHS WILL RUN
10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICK
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME THURSDAY...BUT THE
WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE 70S. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME
LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS WHEN THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SWLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BE SSELY THIS AFTN/EVNG...THEN BACK TO SSWLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KDEN IN THE 21-03Z
WINDOW. SYNTHETIC SATELLITE HINTS AT SOME STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF KDEN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 200944
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWA WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF COLORADO AND A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED LOW OVER SERN AZ/SWRN NEW MX. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO THIS
AFTN. IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE MDLS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
QPF THIS AFTN. SYNTHETIC SATELLITE SUGGESTS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVENING. FOR THIS REASON WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS
THERE...BEST CHC WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF I-70. ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...IT WILL AGAIN BE UNSEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...BREEZY EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 WITH
SSELY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTN. THE MDLS DO HINT AT SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME POTENTIAL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT EAST
AND SOUTH OF LIMON LATE TONIGHT. WL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THE
FINAL DETERMINATION ON THIS BEFORE ADDRESSING IT IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEVADA EARLY TUESDAY
INTO MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE MILD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. IT WILL ALSO
BE BREEZY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONTO THE FRONT RANGE AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVING BEEN TRENDING NORTH ON
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SO WITH THE TRACK BEING WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO...JUST EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART. MAY BE
SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AROUND 9000 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND PASSES. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF EASTERN COLORADO
DUE TO THE SYSTEM BEING FARTHER AWAY FROM COLORADO. HIGHS WILL RUN
10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICK
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME THURSDAY...BUT THE
WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE 70S. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME
LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS WHEN THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SWLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BE SSELY THIS AFTN/EVNG...THEN BACK TO SSWLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KDEN IN THE 21-03Z
WINDOW. SYNTHETIC SATELLITE HINTS AT SOME STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF KDEN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 200150
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
750 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE IN THE MTNS SOUTH OF I-70 WHICH WILL
END IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A BROAD SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DOMINATES THE WESTERN CONUS AT THIS
TIME. LARGE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER RIDGE BOWS WELL UP INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AS A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW TRACKS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER. A SECONDARY WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMA OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BROKEN CLOUD COVER
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN PARK AND
SUMMIT COUNTIES. OTHERWISE A DRY N-NWLY FLOW HAS DRIED OUT THE
HIGH PLAINS AIRMASS WITH HARDLY A CLOUD TO BE SEEN. WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE PLAINS WAS BEGINNING TO TURN
SELY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT BRUSHES
THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STILL MANAGED TO REACH THE 70S
WITH UPPER 70S ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE. TEMPS IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS EVEN MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...
QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE THE LAST OF THE HIGH COUNTRY SHOWERS QUICKLY
DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET WITH CLEARING NOT LONG AFTER THAT.
OTHERWISE REST OF THE CWA CAN EXPECT CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...
LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS AND LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT. TEMP MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO WARM FOR HIGH MTN VALLEY
AND PLAINS RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THE CALM...DRY AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SO IN THESE AREAS WENT WITH MIN
TEMPS 1-3DEG C LOWER THAN THOSE OFFERED BY THE MODELS. OTHERWISE...
SHOULD SEE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS..AND UPPER
20S/30S ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH PLACES COLORADO BACK INTO A
SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MODELS INDICATE A 1-1.5DEG
C WARMUP IN 700 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE FCST AREA WHICH WOULD
EQUATE TO MAX TEMPS 1-3 DEG F WARMER THAN THOSE TODAY. AS FOR
WINDS...LIGHT DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY BREEZES EARLY TO MID MORNING
SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE DAY
WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ON THE PLAINS APPROACHING 20KTS BY
MID-AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ADVECTING HIGHER SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES INTO SRN COLORADO...POSSIBLY
AS FAR NORTH AS SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS MAY AGAIN RESULT
IN A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS/T-SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF PARK
AND SUMMIT COUNTIES. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE DRY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WARM AS WARMER AIR MOVES ALOFT AND A
SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS KEEPING WINDS
BREEZY AT TIMES. A SURGE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS MAY CREATE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN US TUESDAY AND INTO
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN SPEEDING THIS SYSTEM UP
AS WELL AS SPLITTING THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM AS SPED UP...UPWARD
QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES ARE NOW PRETTY WEAK TUESDAY THEN TURN
DOWNWARD WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD NOW BRING THE BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS MAINLY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK CAPE MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY QUITE SPARSE IN COVERAGE.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE PLAINS WITH
SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE MOISTURE AND SHOWERS
MOVING IN. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP KICK OFF
MORE SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10
DEGREES. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY. THE HIGH
TERRAIN...GENERALLY ABOVE 9000 FEET MAY PICK UP A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR QUICKLY WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE STATE WITH A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING AGAIN. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN...INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE PLAINS. THE
GFS HAS FOR THE LAST THREE RUNS BROUGHT IN THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
QUICKLY FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE EC AND GEM HOLDING OFF UNTIL
TUESDAY AT LEAST. HOWEVER JUST RECENTLY THE EC AND GEM HAVE NOW
BEEN BRINGING IT IN SLIGHTLY FASTER. THIS LOOKS LIKE A STRONGER
AND COLDER SYSTEM...FOR A POSSIBLE CHANCE TO SEE SNOW SOMETIME
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 748 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS HAVE BECOME SELY AND SHOULD BECOME SLY BY 03Z AND THEN MORE
SSW AFTER 06Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...BAKER/RPK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 192126
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
326 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A BROAD SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DOMINATES THE WESTERN CONUS AT THIS
TIME. LARGE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER RIDGE BOWS WELL UP INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AS A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW TRACKS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER. A SECONDARY WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMA OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BROKEN CLOUD COVER
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN PARK AND
SUMMIT COUNTIES. OTHERWISE A DRY N-NWLY FLOW HAS DRIED OUT THE
HIGH PLAINS AIRMASS WITH HARDLY A CLOUD TO BE SEEN. WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE PLAINS WAS BEGINNING TO TURN
SELY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT BRUSHES
THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STILL MANAGED TO REACH THE 70S
WITH UPPER 70S ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE. TEMPS IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS EVEN MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...
QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE THE LAST OF THE HIGH COUNTRY SHOWERS QUICKLY
DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET WITH CLEARING NOT LONG AFTER THAT.
OTHERWISE REST OF THE CWA CAN EXPECT CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...
LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS AND LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT. TEMP MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO WARM FOR HIGH MTN VALLEY
AND PLAINS RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THE CALM...DRY AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SO IN THESE AREAS WENT WITH MIN
TEMPS 1-3DEG C LOWER THAN THOSE OFFERED BY THE MODELS. OTHERWISE...
SHOULD SEE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS..AND UPPER
20S/30S ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH PLACES COLORADO BACK INTO A
SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MODELS INDICATE A 1-1.5DEG
C WARMUP IN 700 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE FCST AREA WHICH WOULD
EQUATE TO MAX TEMPS 1-3 DEG F WARMER THAN THOSE TODAY. AS FOR
WINDS...LIGHT DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY BREEZES EARLY TO MID MORNING
SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE DAY
WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ON THE PLAINS APPROACHING 20KTS BY
MID-AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ADVECTING HIGHER SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES INTO SRN COLORADO...POSSIBLY
AS FAR NORTH AS SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS MAY AGAIN RESULT
IN A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS/T-SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF PARK
AND SUMMIT COUNTIES. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE DRY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WARM AS WARMER AIR MOVES ALOFT AND A
SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS KEEPING WINDS
BREEZY AT TIMES. A SURGE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS MAY CREATE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN US TUESDAY AND INTO
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN SPEEDING THIS SYSTEM UP
AS WELL AS SPLITTING THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM AS SPED UP...UPWARD
QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES ARE NOW PRETTY WEAK TUESDAY THEN TURN
DOWNWARD WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD NOW BRING THE BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS MAINLY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK CAPE MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY QUITE SPARSE IN COVERAGE.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE PLAINS WITH
SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE MOISTURE AND SHOWERS
MOVING IN. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP KICK OFF
MORE SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10
DEGREES. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY. THE HIGH
TERRAIN...GENERALLY ABOVE 9000 FEET MAY PICK UP A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR QUICKLY WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE STATE WITH A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING AGAIN. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN...INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE PLAINS. THE
GFS HAS FOR THE LAST THREE RUNS BROUGHT IN THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
QUICKLY FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE EC AND GEM HOLDING OFF UNTIL
TUESDAY AT LEAST. HOWEVER JUST RECENTLY THE EC AND GEM HAVE NOW
BEEN BRINGING IT IN SLIGHTLY FASTER. THIS LOOKS LIKE A STRONGER
AND COLDER SYSTEM...FOR A POSSIBLE CHANCE TO SEE SNOW SOMETIME
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT DENVER AREA AIRPORT
TERMINALS. LIGHT ELY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GO SELY BEFORE
SUNSET...THEN S-SWLY AFTER DARK...AT SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KTS. ON MONDAY...LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A
SELY COMPONENT BY MID TO LATE MORNING THAN E-SELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PREVAILING WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 12KTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 192126
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
326 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A BROAD SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DOMINATES THE WESTERN CONUS AT THIS
TIME. LARGE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER RIDGE BOWS WELL UP INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AS A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW TRACKS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER. A SECONDARY WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMA OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BROKEN CLOUD COVER
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN PARK AND
SUMMIT COUNTIES. OTHERWISE A DRY N-NWLY FLOW HAS DRIED OUT THE
HIGH PLAINS AIRMASS WITH HARDLY A CLOUD TO BE SEEN. WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE PLAINS WAS BEGINNING TO TURN
SELY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT BRUSHES
THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STILL MANAGED TO REACH THE 70S
WITH UPPER 70S ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE. TEMPS IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS EVEN MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...
QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE THE LAST OF THE HIGH COUNTRY SHOWERS QUICKLY
DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET WITH CLEARING NOT LONG AFTER THAT.
OTHERWISE REST OF THE CWA CAN EXPECT CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...
LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS AND LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT. TEMP MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO WARM FOR HIGH MTN VALLEY
AND PLAINS RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THE CALM...DRY AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SO IN THESE AREAS WENT WITH MIN
TEMPS 1-3DEG C LOWER THAN THOSE OFFERED BY THE MODELS. OTHERWISE...
SHOULD SEE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS..AND UPPER
20S/30S ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH PLACES COLORADO BACK INTO A
SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MODELS INDICATE A 1-1.5DEG
C WARMUP IN 700 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE FCST AREA WHICH WOULD
EQUATE TO MAX TEMPS 1-3 DEG F WARMER THAN THOSE TODAY. AS FOR
WINDS...LIGHT DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY BREEZES EARLY TO MID MORNING
SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE DAY
WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ON THE PLAINS APPROACHING 20KTS BY
MID-AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ADVECTING HIGHER SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES INTO SRN COLORADO...POSSIBLY
AS FAR NORTH AS SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS MAY AGAIN RESULT
IN A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS/T-SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF PARK
AND SUMMIT COUNTIES. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE DRY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WARM AS WARMER AIR MOVES ALOFT AND A
SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS KEEPING WINDS
BREEZY AT TIMES. A SURGE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS MAY CREATE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN US TUESDAY AND INTO
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN SPEEDING THIS SYSTEM UP
AS WELL AS SPLITTING THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM AS SPED UP...UPWARD
QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES ARE NOW PRETTY WEAK TUESDAY THEN TURN
DOWNWARD WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD NOW BRING THE BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS MAINLY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK CAPE MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY QUITE SPARSE IN COVERAGE.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE PLAINS WITH
SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE MOISTURE AND SHOWERS
MOVING IN. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP KICK OFF
MORE SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10
DEGREES. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY. THE HIGH
TERRAIN...GENERALLY ABOVE 9000 FEET MAY PICK UP A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR QUICKLY WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE STATE WITH A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING AGAIN. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN...INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE PLAINS. THE
GFS HAS FOR THE LAST THREE RUNS BROUGHT IN THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
QUICKLY FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE EC AND GEM HOLDING OFF UNTIL
TUESDAY AT LEAST. HOWEVER JUST RECENTLY THE EC AND GEM HAVE NOW
BEEN BRINGING IT IN SLIGHTLY FASTER. THIS LOOKS LIKE A STRONGER
AND COLDER SYSTEM...FOR A POSSIBLE CHANCE TO SEE SNOW SOMETIME
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT DENVER AREA AIRPORT
TERMINALS. LIGHT ELY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GO SELY BEFORE
SUNSET...THEN S-SWLY AFTER DARK...AT SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KTS. ON MONDAY...LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A
SELY COMPONENT BY MID TO LATE MORNING THAN E-SELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PREVAILING WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 12KTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 191619
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1019 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ONLY CHANGES FOR TODAY/S FORECAST GRIDS INCLUDE A DECREASE TO SKY
COVERAGE PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE MTNS WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WAS SPREADING DOWN FROM
WYOMING. OVERALL TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5-9 DEG F AHEAD OF THOSE
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPS A DEG OR
TWO. HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND IN THE DENVER AREA UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN SPREADING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. OVERALL...A VERY NICE DAY TO BE OUTSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO TODAY WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING JUST TO THE EAST OF COLORADO AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SERN AZ/MX. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO ADVECT
INTO WRN AND SRN CO THIS AFTN. IF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP TODAY
IT WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWEST OF DENVER...MAINLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE THERE.  ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME SCT- BKN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE...OTHERWISE DRY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH
HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S...6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF COLORADO
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING. COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR WEAK
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30
MPH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...IT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS THURSDAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. LIGHT S-SWLY WINDS AT
DENVER AREA TERMINALS AT THE MOMENT...SHOULD BECOME N-NELY IN THE
DENVER AREA BY AROUND 18Z TODAY. THEN RETURN TO A TYPICAL DRAINAGE
PATTERN BY SUNSET. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 191619
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1019 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ONLY CHANGES FOR TODAY/S FORECAST GRIDS INCLUDE A DECREASE TO SKY
COVERAGE PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE MTNS WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WAS SPREADING DOWN FROM
WYOMING. OVERALL TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5-9 DEG F AHEAD OF THOSE
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPS A DEG OR
TWO. HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND IN THE DENVER AREA UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN SPREADING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. OVERALL...A VERY NICE DAY TO BE OUTSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO TODAY WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING JUST TO THE EAST OF COLORADO AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SERN AZ/MX. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO ADVECT
INTO WRN AND SRN CO THIS AFTN. IF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP TODAY
IT WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWEST OF DENVER...MAINLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE THERE.  ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME SCT- BKN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE...OTHERWISE DRY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH
HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S...6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF COLORADO
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING. COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR WEAK
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30
MPH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...IT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS THURSDAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. LIGHT S-SWLY WINDS AT
DENVER AREA TERMINALS AT THE MOMENT...SHOULD BECOME N-NELY IN THE
DENVER AREA BY AROUND 18Z TODAY. THEN RETURN TO A TYPICAL DRAINAGE
PATTERN BY SUNSET. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 190907
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO TODAY WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING JUST TO THE EAST OF COLORADO AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SERN AZ/MX. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO ADVECT
INTO WRN AND SRN CO THIS AFTN. IF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP TODAY
IT WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWEST OF DENVER...MAINLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE THERE.  ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME SCT- BKN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE...OTHERWISE DRY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH
HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S...6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF COLORADO
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING. COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR WEAK
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30
MPH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...IT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS THURSDAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE FAIRLY RELAXED SO TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERN EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. SLY WINDS THIS MORNING...THEN NELY THIS AFTN...BACK TO
DRAINAGE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 190907
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO TODAY WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING JUST TO THE EAST OF COLORADO AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SERN AZ/MX. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO ADVECT
INTO WRN AND SRN CO THIS AFTN. IF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP TODAY
IT WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWEST OF DENVER...MAINLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE THERE.  ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME SCT- BKN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE...OTHERWISE DRY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH
HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S...6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF COLORADO
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING. COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR WEAK
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30
MPH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...IT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS THURSDAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE FAIRLY RELAXED SO TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERN EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. SLY WINDS THIS MORNING...THEN NELY THIS AFTN...BACK TO
DRAINAGE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 190311
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
911 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SHOWERS HAVE ENDED IN TH MTNS SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

500 MB LOW WAS SPINNING ITS WAY EWRD ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
ATTM...WITH 700 MB LOW OVER THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO LINE NEAR
TRINIDAD. BOTH WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EXPANDING CLOUD SHIELD
OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. NAMNEST
IR SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
THE BAROCLINIC CLOUD LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO. MODELS
SHOW THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
OF THIS MOISTURE HAS SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE FRONT RANGE WHERE
LOW TOP CONVECTION WAS UNDERWAY. RADAR HAS YET TO DETECT ANY
PCPN...BUT PROBABLY ANY TIME NOW. STILL...BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/T-SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70
AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN PARK...SUMMIT...CLEAR CREEK
AND GILPIN COUNTIES. PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS A PRETTY GOOD BET. CHANCE OF PCPN IN THESE AREAS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THIS JIVES WITH
REFLECTIVITY PLOTS OFF THE NAM...HRRR AND WRF-ARW. WHEREAS...DO
NOT SEE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE PLAINS WHERE ENVIRONMENT TOO
DRY AND STABLE EVEN WITH THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS...A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN LIGHTER SLY SFC WINDS OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO.

TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITING THE
STATE AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY.
THIS LEADS TO FURTHER DRYING EAST OFF THE MTNS...BUT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL INVERSION OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO JUST THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER
MIDNIGHT SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER UTAH IS FCST TO SHIFT EAST OVER
COLORADO DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE
PACIFIC SIDE OF THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO FUNNEL ANOTHER BATCH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UP OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE. AS WAS THE CASE TODAY...MAY SEE SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
SPREADING OVER OUR MTN AND FOOTHILL COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...
LEADING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. MEANWHILE...
EAST OF THE MTNS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MIXES DOWNWARD THROUGH THE
DAY TO PRODUCE NELY/UPSLOPE WINDS ON THE PLAINS. COULD SEE A SHIFT
TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE PLAINS NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE.
PLAINS AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED. SO PRECIP CHANCES LESS THAN 10
PCT. HOWEVER ITS POSSIBLE THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO FORM IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 3-5 DEG F HIGHER THAN TODAY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
WILL PUSH IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. A FEW SHOWERS MAY REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF THE
SUNS HEAT. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW MONDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS AS A
SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH IN OVER THE WESTERN STATES TUESDAY
TURNING FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWEST OVER COLORADO WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM EVEN MORE AND SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WEAK
UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES MAY HELP SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.

THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY...BACK NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 8500 FEET
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AND
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED BY OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP...AND
IN SOME CASES ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE PLAINS. DO NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE WITH NO CHANCE AT THIS POINT...WILL MAKE SURE THERE IS
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AND WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS IT SEEMS TO BE UNDERDONE AS WELL.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOR DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 910 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WINDS HAVE GONE SSW AND SHOULD CONTINUE THAT WAY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 190311
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
911 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SHOWERS HAVE ENDED IN TH MTNS SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

500 MB LOW WAS SPINNING ITS WAY EWRD ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
ATTM...WITH 700 MB LOW OVER THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO LINE NEAR
TRINIDAD. BOTH WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EXPANDING CLOUD SHIELD
OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. NAMNEST
IR SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
THE BAROCLINIC CLOUD LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO. MODELS
SHOW THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
OF THIS MOISTURE HAS SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE FRONT RANGE WHERE
LOW TOP CONVECTION WAS UNDERWAY. RADAR HAS YET TO DETECT ANY
PCPN...BUT PROBABLY ANY TIME NOW. STILL...BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/T-SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70
AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN PARK...SUMMIT...CLEAR CREEK
AND GILPIN COUNTIES. PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS A PRETTY GOOD BET. CHANCE OF PCPN IN THESE AREAS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THIS JIVES WITH
REFLECTIVITY PLOTS OFF THE NAM...HRRR AND WRF-ARW. WHEREAS...DO
NOT SEE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE PLAINS WHERE ENVIRONMENT TOO
DRY AND STABLE EVEN WITH THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS...A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN LIGHTER SLY SFC WINDS OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO.

TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITING THE
STATE AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY.
THIS LEADS TO FURTHER DRYING EAST OFF THE MTNS...BUT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL INVERSION OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO JUST THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER
MIDNIGHT SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER UTAH IS FCST TO SHIFT EAST OVER
COLORADO DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE
PACIFIC SIDE OF THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO FUNNEL ANOTHER BATCH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UP OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE. AS WAS THE CASE TODAY...MAY SEE SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
SPREADING OVER OUR MTN AND FOOTHILL COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...
LEADING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. MEANWHILE...
EAST OF THE MTNS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MIXES DOWNWARD THROUGH THE
DAY TO PRODUCE NELY/UPSLOPE WINDS ON THE PLAINS. COULD SEE A SHIFT
TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE PLAINS NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE.
PLAINS AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED. SO PRECIP CHANCES LESS THAN 10
PCT. HOWEVER ITS POSSIBLE THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO FORM IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 3-5 DEG F HIGHER THAN TODAY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
WILL PUSH IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. A FEW SHOWERS MAY REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF THE
SUNS HEAT. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW MONDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS AS A
SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH IN OVER THE WESTERN STATES TUESDAY
TURNING FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWEST OVER COLORADO WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM EVEN MORE AND SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WEAK
UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES MAY HELP SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.

THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY...BACK NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 8500 FEET
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AND
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED BY OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP...AND
IN SOME CASES ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE PLAINS. DO NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE WITH NO CHANCE AT THIS POINT...WILL MAKE SURE THERE IS
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AND WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS IT SEEMS TO BE UNDERDONE AS WELL.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOR DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 910 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WINDS HAVE GONE SSW AND SHOULD CONTINUE THAT WAY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 182124
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
324 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

500 MB LOW WAS SPINNING ITS WAY EWRD ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
ATTM...WITH 700 MB LOW OVER THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO LINE NEAR
TRINIDAD. BOTH WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EXPANDING CLOUD SHIELD
OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. NAMNEST
IR SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
THE BAROCLINIC CLOUD LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO. MODELS
SHOW THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
OF THIS MOISTURE HAS SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE FRONT RANGE WHERE
LOW TOP CONVECTION WAS UNDERWAY. RADAR HAS YET TO DETECT ANY
PCPN...BUT PROBABLY ANY TIME NOW. STILL...BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/T-SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70
AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN PARK...SUMMIT...CLEAR CREEK
AND GILPIN COUNTIES. PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS A PRETTY GOOD BET. CHANCE OF PCPN IN THESE AREAS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THIS JIVES WITH
REFLECTIVITY PLOTS OFF THE NAM...HRRR AND WRF-ARW. WHEREAS...DO
NOT SEE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE PLAINS WHERE ENVIRONMENT TOO
DRY AND STABLE EVEN WITH THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS...A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN LIGHTER SLY SFC WINDS OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO.

TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITING THE
STATE AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY.
THIS LEADS TO FURTHER DRYING EAST OFF THE MTNS...BUT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL INVERSION OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO JUST THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER
MIDNIGHT SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER UTAH IS FCST TO SHIFT EAST OVER
COLORADO DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE
PACIFIC SIDE OF THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO FUNNEL ANOTHER BATCH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UP OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE. AS WAS THE CASE TODAY...MAY SEE SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
SPREADING OVER OUR MTN AND FOOTHILL COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...
LEADING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. MEANWHILE...
EAST OF THE MTNS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MIXES DOWNWARD THROUGH THE
DAY TO PRODUCE NELY/UPSLOPE WINDS ON THE PLAINS. COULD SEE A SHIFT
TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE PLAINS NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE.
PLAINS AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED. SO PRECIP CHANCES LESS THAN 10
PCT. HOWEVER ITS POSSIBLE THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO FORM IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 3-5 DEG F HIGHER THAN TODAY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
WILL PUSH IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. A FEW SHOWERS MAY REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF THE
SUNS HEAT. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW MONDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS AS A
SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH IN OVER THE WESTERN STATES TUESDAY
TURNING FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWEST OVER COLORADO WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM EVEN MORE AND SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WEAK
UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES MAY HELP SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.

THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY...BACK NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 8500 FEET
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AND
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED BY OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP...AND
IN SOME CASES ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE PLAINS. DO NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE WITH NO CHANCE AT THIS POINT...WILL MAKE SURE THERE IS
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AND WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS IT SEEMS TO BE UNDERDONE AS WELL.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOR DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WINDS AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS HAVE GONE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY IN
THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THEN A GRADUAL RETURN TO A SELY COMPONENT BEFORE SUNSET...
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER DARK. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
UNDER 8KTS ALTHOUGH AS THEY BECOME SELY COULD SEE SPEEDS UP
AROUND 14KTS AT DIA AND APA. ON SUNDAY...LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS
EARLY SHIFT TO NORTHERN BY MID-MORNING...THEN NORTHEASTERLY BY
MIDDAY IF NOT SOONER AT SPEEDS OF 7-14KTS. OTHERWISE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE DENVER AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 182124
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
324 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

500 MB LOW WAS SPINNING ITS WAY EWRD ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
ATTM...WITH 700 MB LOW OVER THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO LINE NEAR
TRINIDAD. BOTH WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EXPANDING CLOUD SHIELD
OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. NAMNEST
IR SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
THE BAROCLINIC CLOUD LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO. MODELS
SHOW THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
OF THIS MOISTURE HAS SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE FRONT RANGE WHERE
LOW TOP CONVECTION WAS UNDERWAY. RADAR HAS YET TO DETECT ANY
PCPN...BUT PROBABLY ANY TIME NOW. STILL...BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/T-SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70
AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN PARK...SUMMIT...CLEAR CREEK
AND GILPIN COUNTIES. PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS A PRETTY GOOD BET. CHANCE OF PCPN IN THESE AREAS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THIS JIVES WITH
REFLECTIVITY PLOTS OFF THE NAM...HRRR AND WRF-ARW. WHEREAS...DO
NOT SEE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE PLAINS WHERE ENVIRONMENT TOO
DRY AND STABLE EVEN WITH THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS...A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN LIGHTER SLY SFC WINDS OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO.

TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITING THE
STATE AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY.
THIS LEADS TO FURTHER DRYING EAST OFF THE MTNS...BUT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL INVERSION OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO JUST THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER
MIDNIGHT SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER UTAH IS FCST TO SHIFT EAST OVER
COLORADO DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE
PACIFIC SIDE OF THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO FUNNEL ANOTHER BATCH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UP OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE. AS WAS THE CASE TODAY...MAY SEE SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
SPREADING OVER OUR MTN AND FOOTHILL COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...
LEADING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. MEANWHILE...
EAST OF THE MTNS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MIXES DOWNWARD THROUGH THE
DAY TO PRODUCE NELY/UPSLOPE WINDS ON THE PLAINS. COULD SEE A SHIFT
TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE PLAINS NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE.
PLAINS AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED. SO PRECIP CHANCES LESS THAN 10
PCT. HOWEVER ITS POSSIBLE THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO FORM IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 3-5 DEG F HIGHER THAN TODAY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
WILL PUSH IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. A FEW SHOWERS MAY REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF THE
SUNS HEAT. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW MONDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS AS A
SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH IN OVER THE WESTERN STATES TUESDAY
TURNING FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWEST OVER COLORADO WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM EVEN MORE AND SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WEAK
UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES MAY HELP SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.

THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY...BACK NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 8500 FEET
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AND
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED BY OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP...AND
IN SOME CASES ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE PLAINS. DO NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE WITH NO CHANCE AT THIS POINT...WILL MAKE SURE THERE IS
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AND WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS IT SEEMS TO BE UNDERDONE AS WELL.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOR DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WINDS AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS HAVE GONE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY IN
THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THEN A GRADUAL RETURN TO A SELY COMPONENT BEFORE SUNSET...
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER DARK. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
UNDER 8KTS ALTHOUGH AS THEY BECOME SELY COULD SEE SPEEDS UP
AROUND 14KTS AT DIA AND APA. ON SUNDAY...LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS
EARLY SHIFT TO NORTHERN BY MID-MORNING...THEN NORTHEASTERLY BY
MIDDAY IF NOT SOONER AT SPEEDS OF 7-14KTS. OTHERWISE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE DENVER AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 181635 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1035 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LOW SPINNING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ATTM
WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH. NAMNEST IR SYNTHETIC SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A REDUCTION IN THE CLOUD MASS TO OUR SOUTH AS
THE UPPER LOW NEARS THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS BORDER LATER TODAY.
MEANWHILE...THE BAROCLINIC CLOUD LEAF NOW MOVING OVER WESTERN
COLORADO IS LINKED TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEST EVIDENT IN
650-450 MB MODEL WIND AND HEIGHT FIELDS. MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE
INDUCED CLOUD SHIELD EXPANDING SOMEWHAT AS IT MIGRATES EASTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS EXPANSION AND MOVEMENT ARE HANDLED WELL BY SYNTHETIC
SATL IMAGERY AND MODEL MID-LEVEL RH FIELDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL LOWERING
MAINLY OVER MTN AREAS SOUTHWEST OF DENVER THIS AFTERNOON.
NAM...HRRR AND WRF-ARW ALL INDICATE SPOTTY REFLECTIVITY OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGH MTN TERRAIN IN PARK...SUMMIT AND CLEAR CREEK
COUNTIES BETWEEN 21Z-00Z TODAY...AND OVER THE MESQUITO RANGE IN
W-NWRN PARK COUNTY TIL 03Z THIS EVENING. NOTHING ON THE PLAINS OR
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT AS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. WINDS
OVERALL IN THE MTNS AND UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY. WHEREAS FARTHER OUT ON THE
PLAINS...A TIGHT SFC PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY
SLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 30 KTS IN SOME AREAS THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. THEN AS THE SHORTWAVE NEARS SHOULD SEE BNDRY LAYER
WINDS TURNING SELY AS THEY DROP OFF IN SPEED. CLOSER TO THE I-25
URBAN CORRIDOR...SHOULD SEE LIGHT ELY WINDS DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON
WITH A POORLY ORGANIZED SFC CYCLONE FORMING OVER NERN DOUGLAS/NWRN
ELBERT COUNTIES. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF COLORADO. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL HELP TO ADVECT MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NERN CO TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD...ANY POTENTIAL
PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO ZONES 34 AND 37...WITH JUST SOME ISOLD
POPS THERE THIS AFTN. WL KEEP PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT THE SFC...THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT SELY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO...WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...AND A SFC TROUGH OVER WRN CO.
COULD SEE A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP...ONLY EFFECT FM THIS WILL
CONCERN THE WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW MEXICO TO MONTANA SUNDAY. A
WEAK LOW WILL UNDER CUT THE RIDGE AND INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW
WEAK SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. WILL GO WITH LOW POPS FOR THIS SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR
BOTH DAYS.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND AS A TROUGH
MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST. IT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA
TUESDAY. A SECOND WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER
NEVADA TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO WEDNESDAY. WILL
SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE NOT IMPRESSIVE...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REFORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMER DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WINDS AT DEN AND APA TERMINALS HAVE YET TO SHIFT TO A SLY
COMPONENT AS MODELS HAD INDICATED. WILL ADJUST. HOWEVER STILL
BELIEVE SUCH A WIND COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
WITH SLY WINDS STRENGTHEN FARTHER OUT OF THE PLAINS. THEN AFTER
AROUND 20Z TODAY...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL SHIFT TO E-SELY WINDS AT
ALL DENVER AREA TERMINALS..AT SPEEDS FM 7-14 KTS. OTHERWISE...
SHOULD BE IN AND OUT OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE DENVER AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BAKER/COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 181635 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1035 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LOW SPINNING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ATTM
WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH. NAMNEST IR SYNTHETIC SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A REDUCTION IN THE CLOUD MASS TO OUR SOUTH AS
THE UPPER LOW NEARS THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS BORDER LATER TODAY.
MEANWHILE...THE BAROCLINIC CLOUD LEAF NOW MOVING OVER WESTERN
COLORADO IS LINKED TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEST EVIDENT IN
650-450 MB MODEL WIND AND HEIGHT FIELDS. MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE
INDUCED CLOUD SHIELD EXPANDING SOMEWHAT AS IT MIGRATES EASTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS EXPANSION AND MOVEMENT ARE HANDLED WELL BY SYNTHETIC
SATL IMAGERY AND MODEL MID-LEVEL RH FIELDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL LOWERING
MAINLY OVER MTN AREAS SOUTHWEST OF DENVER THIS AFTERNOON.
NAM...HRRR AND WRF-ARW ALL INDICATE SPOTTY REFLECTIVITY OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGH MTN TERRAIN IN PARK...SUMMIT AND CLEAR CREEK
COUNTIES BETWEEN 21Z-00Z TODAY...AND OVER THE MESQUITO RANGE IN
W-NWRN PARK COUNTY TIL 03Z THIS EVENING. NOTHING ON THE PLAINS OR
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT AS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. WINDS
OVERALL IN THE MTNS AND UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY. WHEREAS FARTHER OUT ON THE
PLAINS...A TIGHT SFC PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY
SLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 30 KTS IN SOME AREAS THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. THEN AS THE SHORTWAVE NEARS SHOULD SEE BNDRY LAYER
WINDS TURNING SELY AS THEY DROP OFF IN SPEED. CLOSER TO THE I-25
URBAN CORRIDOR...SHOULD SEE LIGHT ELY WINDS DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON
WITH A POORLY ORGANIZED SFC CYCLONE FORMING OVER NERN DOUGLAS/NWRN
ELBERT COUNTIES. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF COLORADO. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL HELP TO ADVECT MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NERN CO TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD...ANY POTENTIAL
PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO ZONES 34 AND 37...WITH JUST SOME ISOLD
POPS THERE THIS AFTN. WL KEEP PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT THE SFC...THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT SELY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO...WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...AND A SFC TROUGH OVER WRN CO.
COULD SEE A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP...ONLY EFFECT FM THIS WILL
CONCERN THE WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW MEXICO TO MONTANA SUNDAY. A
WEAK LOW WILL UNDER CUT THE RIDGE AND INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW
WEAK SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. WILL GO WITH LOW POPS FOR THIS SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR
BOTH DAYS.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND AS A TROUGH
MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST. IT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA
TUESDAY. A SECOND WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER
NEVADA TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO WEDNESDAY. WILL
SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE NOT IMPRESSIVE...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REFORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMER DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WINDS AT DEN AND APA TERMINALS HAVE YET TO SHIFT TO A SLY
COMPONENT AS MODELS HAD INDICATED. WILL ADJUST. HOWEVER STILL
BELIEVE SUCH A WIND COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
WITH SLY WINDS STRENGTHEN FARTHER OUT OF THE PLAINS. THEN AFTER
AROUND 20Z TODAY...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL SHIFT TO E-SELY WINDS AT
ALL DENVER AREA TERMINALS..AT SPEEDS FM 7-14 KTS. OTHERWISE...
SHOULD BE IN AND OUT OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE DENVER AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BAKER/COOPER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 181629
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1029 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LOW SPINNING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ATTM
WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH. NAMNEST IR SYNTHETIC SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A REDUCTION IN THE CLOUD MASS TO OUR SOUTH AS
THE UPPER LOW NEARS THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS BORDER LATER TODAY.
MEANWHILE...THE BAROCLINIC CLOUD LEAF NOW MOVING OVER WESTERN
COLORADO IS LINKED TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEST EVIDENT IN
650-450 MB MODEL WIND AND HEIGHT FIELDS. MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE
INDUCED CLOUD SHIELD EXPANDING SOMEWHAT AS IT MIGRATES EASTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS EXPANSION AND MOVEMENT ARE HANDLED WELL BY SYNTHETIC
SATL IMAGERY AND MODEL MID-LEVEL RH FIELDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL LOWERING
MAINLY OVER MTN AREAS SOUTHWEST OF DENVER THIS AFTERNOON.
NAM...HRRR AND WRF-ARW ALL INDICATE SPOTTY REFLECTIVITY OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGH MTN TERRAIN IN PARK...SUMMIT AND CLEAR CREEK
COUNTIES BETWEEN 21Z-00Z TODAY...AND OVER THE MESQUITO RANGE IN
W-NWRN PARK COUNTY TIL 03Z THIS EVENING. NOTHING ON THE PLAINS OR
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT AS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. WINDS
OVERALL IN THE MTNS AND UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY. WHEREAS FARTHER OUT ON THE
PLAINS...A TIGHT SFC PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY
SLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 30 KTS IN SOME AREAS THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. THEN AS THE SHORTWAVE NEARS SHOULD SEE BNDRY LAYER
WINDS TURNING SELY AS THEY DROP OFF IN SPEED. CLOSER THE I-25
URBAN CORRIDOR...SHOULD SEE LIGHT ELY WINDS WITH A POORLY
ORGANIZED SFC CYCLONE FORMING OVER NERN DOUGLAS/NWRN ELBERT
COUNTIES. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF COLORADO. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL HELP TO ADVECT MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NERN CO TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD...ANY POTENTIAL
PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO ZONES 34 AND 37...WITH JUST SOME ISOLD
POPS THERE THIS AFTN. WL KEEP PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT THE SFC...THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT SELY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO...WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...AND A SFC TROUGH OVER WRN CO.
COULD SEE A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP...ONLY EFFECT FM THIS WILL
CONCERN THE WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW MEXICO TO MONTANA SUNDAY. A
WEAK LOW WILL UNDER CUT THE RIDGE AND INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW
WEAK SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. WILL GO WITH LOW POPS FOR THIS SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR
BOTH DAYS.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND AS A TROUGH
MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST. IT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA
TUESDAY. A SECOND WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER
NEVADA TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO WEDNESDAY. WILL
SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE NOT IMPRESSIVE...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REFORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMER DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 916 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WINDS AT DEN AND APA TERMINALS HAVE YET TO SHIFT TO A SLY
COMPONENT AS MODELS HAD INDICATED. WILL ADJUST. HOWEVER STILL
BELIEVE SUCH A WIND COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
WITH SLY WINDS STRENGTHEN FARTHER OUT OF THE PLAINS. THEN AFTER
AROUND 20Z TODAY...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL SHIFT TO E-SELY WINDS AT
ALL DENVER AREA TERMINALS..AT SPEEDS FM 7-14 KTS. OTHERWISE...
SHOULD BE IN AND OUT OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE DENVER AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BAKER/COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 181629
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1029 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LOW SPINNING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ATTM
WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH. NAMNEST IR SYNTHETIC SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A REDUCTION IN THE CLOUD MASS TO OUR SOUTH AS
THE UPPER LOW NEARS THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS BORDER LATER TODAY.
MEANWHILE...THE BAROCLINIC CLOUD LEAF NOW MOVING OVER WESTERN
COLORADO IS LINKED TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEST EVIDENT IN
650-450 MB MODEL WIND AND HEIGHT FIELDS. MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE
INDUCED CLOUD SHIELD EXPANDING SOMEWHAT AS IT MIGRATES EASTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS EXPANSION AND MOVEMENT ARE HANDLED WELL BY SYNTHETIC
SATL IMAGERY AND MODEL MID-LEVEL RH FIELDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL LOWERING
MAINLY OVER MTN AREAS SOUTHWEST OF DENVER THIS AFTERNOON.
NAM...HRRR AND WRF-ARW ALL INDICATE SPOTTY REFLECTIVITY OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGH MTN TERRAIN IN PARK...SUMMIT AND CLEAR CREEK
COUNTIES BETWEEN 21Z-00Z TODAY...AND OVER THE MESQUITO RANGE IN
W-NWRN PARK COUNTY TIL 03Z THIS EVENING. NOTHING ON THE PLAINS OR
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT AS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. WINDS
OVERALL IN THE MTNS AND UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY. WHEREAS FARTHER OUT ON THE
PLAINS...A TIGHT SFC PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY
SLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 30 KTS IN SOME AREAS THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. THEN AS THE SHORTWAVE NEARS SHOULD SEE BNDRY LAYER
WINDS TURNING SELY AS THEY DROP OFF IN SPEED. CLOSER THE I-25
URBAN CORRIDOR...SHOULD SEE LIGHT ELY WINDS WITH A POORLY
ORGANIZED SFC CYCLONE FORMING OVER NERN DOUGLAS/NWRN ELBERT
COUNTIES. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF COLORADO. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL HELP TO ADVECT MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NERN CO TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD...ANY POTENTIAL
PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO ZONES 34 AND 37...WITH JUST SOME ISOLD
POPS THERE THIS AFTN. WL KEEP PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT THE SFC...THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT SELY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO...WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...AND A SFC TROUGH OVER WRN CO.
COULD SEE A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP...ONLY EFFECT FM THIS WILL
CONCERN THE WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW MEXICO TO MONTANA SUNDAY. A
WEAK LOW WILL UNDER CUT THE RIDGE AND INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW
WEAK SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. WILL GO WITH LOW POPS FOR THIS SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR
BOTH DAYS.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND AS A TROUGH
MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST. IT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA
TUESDAY. A SECOND WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER
NEVADA TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO WEDNESDAY. WILL
SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE NOT IMPRESSIVE...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REFORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMER DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 916 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WINDS AT DEN AND APA TERMINALS HAVE YET TO SHIFT TO A SLY
COMPONENT AS MODELS HAD INDICATED. WILL ADJUST. HOWEVER STILL
BELIEVE SUCH A WIND COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
WITH SLY WINDS STRENGTHEN FARTHER OUT OF THE PLAINS. THEN AFTER
AROUND 20Z TODAY...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL SHIFT TO E-SELY WINDS AT
ALL DENVER AREA TERMINALS..AT SPEEDS FM 7-14 KTS. OTHERWISE...
SHOULD BE IN AND OUT OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE DENVER AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BAKER/COOPER





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