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000
FXUS65 KBOU 030347
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
947 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA RIGHT
NOW. THERE ARE STILL QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF THE CWA. WILL LEAVE THE "CHANCE"
POPS GOING IN THE ALPINE AREAS OVERNIGHT BASED ON REAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

RADAR SHOWING STORMS MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH FROM THE
WYOMING BORDER. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER
ESE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PW VALUES ARE
AROUND 0.85 INCHES SO MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL
BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT FOR THE PLAINS WHILE STAYING MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWS INTO THE LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE SW WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS MOST
OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE MORNING INCREASING IN
COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WEAK ASCENT FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO BRING SOME CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS BY
THE AFTERNOON. KEPT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE PLAINS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PW VALUES WILL
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE CLOSE TO 1 INCH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW
SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS WITH STORM
PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WEAK MID LEVEL QG ASCENT WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL WY. THE BEST TSTM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT FM THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER
COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND PASS THROUGH WYOMING. AS IT DOES THE RIDGE WILL GET SUPPRESSED
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH WEAK QG ASCENT DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD AGAIN
SEE SOME INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER. ON FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER NORTH
TEXAS WITH THE FLOW ALOFT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY. SOME WEAK QG ASCENT
MOVING INTO WRN AND NORTHERN CO IN THE AFTN/EVNG...MAYBE ENOUGH TO
SPARK A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVNG THUNDERSTORMS. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO SLIP
BACK INTO COLORADO FM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...MORE CLOUDS
WITH BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WL RUN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY...LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 849 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

DRAINAGE WINDS ARE BLOWING AT DIA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE NO CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RJK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 030347
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
947 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA RIGHT
NOW. THERE ARE STILL QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF THE CWA. WILL LEAVE THE "CHANCE"
POPS GOING IN THE ALPINE AREAS OVERNIGHT BASED ON REAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

RADAR SHOWING STORMS MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH FROM THE
WYOMING BORDER. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER
ESE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PW VALUES ARE
AROUND 0.85 INCHES SO MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL
BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT FOR THE PLAINS WHILE STAYING MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWS INTO THE LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE SW WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS MOST
OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE MORNING INCREASING IN
COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WEAK ASCENT FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO BRING SOME CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS BY
THE AFTERNOON. KEPT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE PLAINS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PW VALUES WILL
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE CLOSE TO 1 INCH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW
SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS WITH STORM
PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WEAK MID LEVEL QG ASCENT WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL WY. THE BEST TSTM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT FM THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER
COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND PASS THROUGH WYOMING. AS IT DOES THE RIDGE WILL GET SUPPRESSED
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH WEAK QG ASCENT DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD AGAIN
SEE SOME INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER. ON FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER NORTH
TEXAS WITH THE FLOW ALOFT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY. SOME WEAK QG ASCENT
MOVING INTO WRN AND NORTHERN CO IN THE AFTN/EVNG...MAYBE ENOUGH TO
SPARK A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVNG THUNDERSTORMS. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO SLIP
BACK INTO COLORADO FM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...MORE CLOUDS
WITH BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WL RUN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY...LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 849 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

DRAINAGE WINDS ARE BLOWING AT DIA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE NO CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 022010
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
210 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

RADAR SHOWING STORMS MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH FROM THE
WYOMING BORDER. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER
ESE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PW VALUES ARE
AROUND 0.85 INCHES SO MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL
BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT FOR THE PLAINS WHILE STAYING MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWS INTO THE LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE SW WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS MOST
OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE MORNING INCREASING IN
COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WEAK ASCENT FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO BRING SOME CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS BY
THE AFTERNOON. KEPT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE PLAINS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PW VALUES WILL
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE CLOSE TO 1 INCH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW
SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS WITH STORM
PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WEAK MID LEVEL QG ASCENT WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL WY. THE BEST TSTM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT FM THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER
COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND PASS THROUGH WYOMING. AS IT DOES THE RIDGE WILL GET SUPPRESSED
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH WEAK QG ASCENT DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD AGAIN
SEE SOME INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER. ON FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER NORTH
TEXAS WITH THE FLOW ALOFT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY. SOME WEAK QG ASCENT
MOVING INTO WRN AND NORTHERN CO IN THE AFTN/EVNG...MAYBE ENOUGH TO
SPARK A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVNG THUNDERSTORMS. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO SLIP
BACK INTO COLORADO FM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...MORE CLOUDS
WITH BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WL RUN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY...LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR UNTIL LATE MONDAY FOR DEN...APA AND
BJC. CEILINGS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A BKN DECK
GETTING DOWN TO 080 WITH SOME ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS THAT ARE
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH BY 02 TO 03Z. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE AND GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH WITH STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AIRPORT. WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO
DRAINAGE BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 022010
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
210 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

RADAR SHOWING STORMS MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH FROM THE
WYOMING BORDER. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER
ESE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PW VALUES ARE
AROUND 0.85 INCHES SO MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL
BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT FOR THE PLAINS WHILE STAYING MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWS INTO THE LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE SW WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS MOST
OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE MORNING INCREASING IN
COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WEAK ASCENT FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO BRING SOME CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS BY
THE AFTERNOON. KEPT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE PLAINS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PW VALUES WILL
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE CLOSE TO 1 INCH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW
SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS WITH STORM
PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WEAK MID LEVEL QG ASCENT WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL WY. THE BEST TSTM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT FM THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER
COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND PASS THROUGH WYOMING. AS IT DOES THE RIDGE WILL GET SUPPRESSED
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH WEAK QG ASCENT DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD AGAIN
SEE SOME INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER. ON FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER NORTH
TEXAS WITH THE FLOW ALOFT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY. SOME WEAK QG ASCENT
MOVING INTO WRN AND NORTHERN CO IN THE AFTN/EVNG...MAYBE ENOUGH TO
SPARK A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVNG THUNDERSTORMS. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO SLIP
BACK INTO COLORADO FM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...MORE CLOUDS
WITH BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WL RUN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY...LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR UNTIL LATE MONDAY FOR DEN...APA AND
BJC. CEILINGS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A BKN DECK
GETTING DOWN TO 080 WITH SOME ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS THAT ARE
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH BY 02 TO 03Z. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE AND GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH WITH STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AIRPORT. WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO
DRAINAGE BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 021536
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
936 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END OVER THE FAR NE CORNER WITH
THE HELP OF HIGH DEWPOINTS AND THE EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET.
EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. INCREASED POPS OVER THE PLAINS
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND A FRONT NORTH OF NEBRASKA THAT IS STILL
PROGGED TO TRACK INTO NE COLORADO BY THIS EVENING/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAS SOME GUSTY WINDS MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF WY FROM OUTFLOWS PROVIDED BY STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE
NORTH. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE EVENING. MAIN THREATS
STILL LOOK TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO WITH A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. OVERALL NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN MOISTURE LEVELS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH
INTEGRATED PW VALUES JUST UNDER AN INCH OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
A BIT HIGHER OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MIDDLE
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF COLORADO.
THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY
ROTATE INTO WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WHICH WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND WEAK QG LIFT.

INITIALLY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BUT SLOWLY SNEAK OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WITH OVERALL SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES UNDER 700J/KG. APPEARS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE FAR NE PLAINS TOWARDS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE4
OF THUNDERSTORMS SPARKING THERE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS READINGS BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO DOWN
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF WILL
APPROACH WITH AIDED MOISTURE AND LIFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SWING NEWRD ACROSS N-
CNTRL/NERN CO MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SEWRD ACRS ERN WY/WRN
SD/WRN NE ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE 4-CORNERS RGN.
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAY MON AND SCATTERED T-STORMS ON THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SYSTEM APPEARS MOST ROBUST ON THE NAM
AND ONLY LACK LUSTER ON THE ECMWF. NAM GENERATES SOME RIDICULOUSLY
HIGH CAPES ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF CO IN THE VCNTY OF A STALLED SFC
FRONTAL ZONE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AND A LOW-LEVEL
JET ALIGNED WITH THE STATE`S ERN BORDER MON NIGHT AND TUE. GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF INDICATE FAR LESS INSTABILITY BUT STILL INDICATE
DECENT SHEAR IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE THE
CANADIAN MODEL GOES SO FAR AS TO SPIN UP A CLOSED 700-500MB LOW OVER
NERN CO LATE MON AND THEN DEEPENS IT AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS E/SEWRD
ACRS NWRN KS OVERNIGHT. PREFER A BLEND OF THE MODELS...EXCLUDING THE
CANADIAN GEM...CENTERED ON THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR THE PLAINS...PLAN
ON GOING WITH HIGHER POPS UP AGAINST THE NRN FRONT RANGE AND ALONG
THE WY BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND OUT ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF
THE STATE MON NIGHT. STORMS FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL JET ARE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HVY
RAINFALL...STG GUSTY WNDS AND HAIL. HIGH TEMPS ON MON EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGS LOWER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY DUE IN LARGE PART TO
CONSIDERABLE MORE CLOUDINESS.

ON TUE...SHOULD SEE PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS DRIER/COOLER AIR SWEEPS IN ON W/NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER COULD SEE A MODEST UPTICK IN SHOWER/T-STORM
ACTIVITY ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE
SHORT-WAVE DYNAMICS BRUSHING THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE DAY BEFORE BUT STILL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

WED THROUGH SAT...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON
WED RETURNING TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MODELS SHOW A WEAK
MID-LEVEL PERTABATION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND POSSIBLY
GENERATING A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NERN CORNER OF THE CWA WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
LOWER HUMIDITY. ON THU...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER SOMEWHAT STRONGER
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND DOWN ACRS
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE TAIL END OF THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO
CLIP THE NERN CORNER OF FCST AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF T-STORMS. MORE CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT COOLER ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
THU. ON FRI...RIDGE REGAINS ITS GRIP ON COLORADO RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPS AND MORE SUNSHINE. HOWEVER WITH THE WARMER TEMPS AND
SUNSHINE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON T-STORMS FORMING
OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS BY THE
EVENING. ON SAT...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST ALLOWING
SWLY FLOW ALOFT TO USHER IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TOO SOON TO KNOW WITH ANY
CERTAINTY HOW WET AND STORMY SAT MAY TURN OUT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 926 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDED SOME LIGHT SHRA IN A
TEMPO WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND A WEAK CAP WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY. COULD SEE SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE NORTH THAT WILL HELP
TO BRING IN SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH A LINE OF RAINSHOWERS
AROUND 23Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THEN TRANSITION TO
THE NW BEFORE GOING TO DRAINAGE BY THIS EVENING AS STORMS CLEAR
OUT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 021536
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
936 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END OVER THE FAR NE CORNER WITH
THE HELP OF HIGH DEWPOINTS AND THE EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET.
EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. INCREASED POPS OVER THE PLAINS
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND A FRONT NORTH OF NEBRASKA THAT IS STILL
PROGGED TO TRACK INTO NE COLORADO BY THIS EVENING/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAS SOME GUSTY WINDS MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF WY FROM OUTFLOWS PROVIDED BY STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE
NORTH. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE EVENING. MAIN THREATS
STILL LOOK TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO WITH A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. OVERALL NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN MOISTURE LEVELS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH
INTEGRATED PW VALUES JUST UNDER AN INCH OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
A BIT HIGHER OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MIDDLE
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF COLORADO.
THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY
ROTATE INTO WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WHICH WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND WEAK QG LIFT.

INITIALLY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BUT SLOWLY SNEAK OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WITH OVERALL SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES UNDER 700J/KG. APPEARS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE FAR NE PLAINS TOWARDS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE4
OF THUNDERSTORMS SPARKING THERE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS READINGS BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO DOWN
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF WILL
APPROACH WITH AIDED MOISTURE AND LIFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SWING NEWRD ACROSS N-
CNTRL/NERN CO MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SEWRD ACRS ERN WY/WRN
SD/WRN NE ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE 4-CORNERS RGN.
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAY MON AND SCATTERED T-STORMS ON THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SYSTEM APPEARS MOST ROBUST ON THE NAM
AND ONLY LACK LUSTER ON THE ECMWF. NAM GENERATES SOME RIDICULOUSLY
HIGH CAPES ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF CO IN THE VCNTY OF A STALLED SFC
FRONTAL ZONE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AND A LOW-LEVEL
JET ALIGNED WITH THE STATE`S ERN BORDER MON NIGHT AND TUE. GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF INDICATE FAR LESS INSTABILITY BUT STILL INDICATE
DECENT SHEAR IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE THE
CANADIAN MODEL GOES SO FAR AS TO SPIN UP A CLOSED 700-500MB LOW OVER
NERN CO LATE MON AND THEN DEEPENS IT AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS E/SEWRD
ACRS NWRN KS OVERNIGHT. PREFER A BLEND OF THE MODELS...EXCLUDING THE
CANADIAN GEM...CENTERED ON THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR THE PLAINS...PLAN
ON GOING WITH HIGHER POPS UP AGAINST THE NRN FRONT RANGE AND ALONG
THE WY BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND OUT ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF
THE STATE MON NIGHT. STORMS FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL JET ARE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HVY
RAINFALL...STG GUSTY WNDS AND HAIL. HIGH TEMPS ON MON EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGS LOWER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY DUE IN LARGE PART TO
CONSIDERABLE MORE CLOUDINESS.

ON TUE...SHOULD SEE PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS DRIER/COOLER AIR SWEEPS IN ON W/NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER COULD SEE A MODEST UPTICK IN SHOWER/T-STORM
ACTIVITY ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE
SHORT-WAVE DYNAMICS BRUSHING THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE DAY BEFORE BUT STILL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

WED THROUGH SAT...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON
WED RETURNING TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MODELS SHOW A WEAK
MID-LEVEL PERTABATION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND POSSIBLY
GENERATING A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NERN CORNER OF THE CWA WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
LOWER HUMIDITY. ON THU...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER SOMEWHAT STRONGER
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND DOWN ACRS
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE TAIL END OF THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO
CLIP THE NERN CORNER OF FCST AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF T-STORMS. MORE CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT COOLER ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
THU. ON FRI...RIDGE REGAINS ITS GRIP ON COLORADO RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPS AND MORE SUNSHINE. HOWEVER WITH THE WARMER TEMPS AND
SUNSHINE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON T-STORMS FORMING
OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS BY THE
EVENING. ON SAT...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST ALLOWING
SWLY FLOW ALOFT TO USHER IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TOO SOON TO KNOW WITH ANY
CERTAINTY HOW WET AND STORMY SAT MAY TURN OUT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 926 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDED SOME LIGHT SHRA IN A
TEMPO WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND A WEAK CAP WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY. COULD SEE SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE NORTH THAT WILL HELP
TO BRING IN SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH A LINE OF RAINSHOWERS
AROUND 23Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THEN TRANSITION TO
THE NW BEFORE GOING TO DRAINAGE BY THIS EVENING AS STORMS CLEAR
OUT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 021536
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
936 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END OVER THE FAR NE CORNER WITH
THE HELP OF HIGH DEWPOINTS AND THE EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET.
EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. INCREASED POPS OVER THE PLAINS
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND A FRONT NORTH OF NEBRASKA THAT IS STILL
PROGGED TO TRACK INTO NE COLORADO BY THIS EVENING/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAS SOME GUSTY WINDS MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF WY FROM OUTFLOWS PROVIDED BY STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE
NORTH. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE EVENING. MAIN THREATS
STILL LOOK TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO WITH A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. OVERALL NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN MOISTURE LEVELS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH
INTEGRATED PW VALUES JUST UNDER AN INCH OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
A BIT HIGHER OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MIDDLE
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF COLORADO.
THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY
ROTATE INTO WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WHICH WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND WEAK QG LIFT.

INITIALLY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BUT SLOWLY SNEAK OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WITH OVERALL SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES UNDER 700J/KG. APPEARS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE FAR NE PLAINS TOWARDS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE4
OF THUNDERSTORMS SPARKING THERE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS READINGS BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO DOWN
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF WILL
APPROACH WITH AIDED MOISTURE AND LIFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SWING NEWRD ACROSS N-
CNTRL/NERN CO MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SEWRD ACRS ERN WY/WRN
SD/WRN NE ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE 4-CORNERS RGN.
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAY MON AND SCATTERED T-STORMS ON THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SYSTEM APPEARS MOST ROBUST ON THE NAM
AND ONLY LACK LUSTER ON THE ECMWF. NAM GENERATES SOME RIDICULOUSLY
HIGH CAPES ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF CO IN THE VCNTY OF A STALLED SFC
FRONTAL ZONE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AND A LOW-LEVEL
JET ALIGNED WITH THE STATE`S ERN BORDER MON NIGHT AND TUE. GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF INDICATE FAR LESS INSTABILITY BUT STILL INDICATE
DECENT SHEAR IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE THE
CANADIAN MODEL GOES SO FAR AS TO SPIN UP A CLOSED 700-500MB LOW OVER
NERN CO LATE MON AND THEN DEEPENS IT AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS E/SEWRD
ACRS NWRN KS OVERNIGHT. PREFER A BLEND OF THE MODELS...EXCLUDING THE
CANADIAN GEM...CENTERED ON THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR THE PLAINS...PLAN
ON GOING WITH HIGHER POPS UP AGAINST THE NRN FRONT RANGE AND ALONG
THE WY BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND OUT ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF
THE STATE MON NIGHT. STORMS FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL JET ARE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HVY
RAINFALL...STG GUSTY WNDS AND HAIL. HIGH TEMPS ON MON EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGS LOWER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY DUE IN LARGE PART TO
CONSIDERABLE MORE CLOUDINESS.

ON TUE...SHOULD SEE PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS DRIER/COOLER AIR SWEEPS IN ON W/NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER COULD SEE A MODEST UPTICK IN SHOWER/T-STORM
ACTIVITY ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE
SHORT-WAVE DYNAMICS BRUSHING THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE DAY BEFORE BUT STILL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

WED THROUGH SAT...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON
WED RETURNING TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MODELS SHOW A WEAK
MID-LEVEL PERTABATION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND POSSIBLY
GENERATING A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NERN CORNER OF THE CWA WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
LOWER HUMIDITY. ON THU...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER SOMEWHAT STRONGER
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND DOWN ACRS
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE TAIL END OF THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO
CLIP THE NERN CORNER OF FCST AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF T-STORMS. MORE CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT COOLER ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
THU. ON FRI...RIDGE REGAINS ITS GRIP ON COLORADO RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPS AND MORE SUNSHINE. HOWEVER WITH THE WARMER TEMPS AND
SUNSHINE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON T-STORMS FORMING
OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS BY THE
EVENING. ON SAT...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST ALLOWING
SWLY FLOW ALOFT TO USHER IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TOO SOON TO KNOW WITH ANY
CERTAINTY HOW WET AND STORMY SAT MAY TURN OUT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 926 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDED SOME LIGHT SHRA IN A
TEMPO WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND A WEAK CAP WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY. COULD SEE SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE NORTH THAT WILL HELP
TO BRING IN SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH A LINE OF RAINSHOWERS
AROUND 23Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THEN TRANSITION TO
THE NW BEFORE GOING TO DRAINAGE BY THIS EVENING AS STORMS CLEAR
OUT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 020948
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
348 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO WITH A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. OVERALL NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN MOISTURE LEVELS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH
INTEGRATED PW VALUES JUST UNDER AN INCH OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
A BIT HIGHER OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MIDDLE
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF COLORADO.
THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY
ROTATE INTO WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WHICH WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND WEAK QG LIFT.

INITIALLY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BUT SLOWLY SNEAK OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WITH OVERALL SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES UNDER 700J/KG. APPEARS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE FAR NE PLAINS TOWARDS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE4
OF THUNDERSTORMS SPARKING THERE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS READINGS BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO DOWN
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF WILL
APPROACH WITH AIDED MOISTURE AND LIFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SWING NEWRD ACROSS N-
CNTRL/NERN CO MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SEWRD ACRS ERN WY/WRN
SD/WRN NE ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE 4-CORNERS RGN.
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAY MON AND SCATTERED T-STORMS ON THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SYSTEM APPEARS MOST ROBUST ON THE NAM
AND ONLY LACK LUSTER ON THE ECMWF. NAM GENERATES SOME RIDICULOUSLY
HIGH CAPES ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF CO IN THE VCNTY OF A STALLED SFC
FRONTAL ZONE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AND A LOW-LEVEL
JET ALIGNED WITH THE STATE`S ERN BORDER MON NIGHT AND TUE. GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF INDICATE FAR LESS INSTABILITY BUT STILL INDICATE
DECENT SHEAR IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE THE
CANADIAN MODEL GOES SO FAR AS TO SPIN UP A CLOSED 700-500MB LOW OVER
NERN CO LATE MON AND THEN DEEPENS IT AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS E/SEWRD
ACRS NWRN KS OVERNIGHT. PREFER A BLEND OF THE MODELS...EXCLUDING THE
CANADIAN GEM...CENTERED ON THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR THE PLAINS...PLAN
ON GOING WITH HIGHER POPS UP AGAINST THE NRN FRONT RANGE AND ALONG
THE WY BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND OUT ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF
THE STATE MON NIGHT. STORMS FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL JET ARE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HVY
RAINFALL...STG GUSTY WNDS AND HAIL. HIGH TEMPS ON MON EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGS LOWER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY DUE IN LARGE PART TO
CONSIDERABLE MORE CLOUDINESS.

ON TUE...SHOULD SEE PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS DRIER/COOLER AIR SWEEPS IN ON W/NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER COULD SEE A MODEST UPTICK IN SHOWER/T-STORM
ACTIVITY ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE
SHORT-WAVE DYNAMICS BRUSHING THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE DAY BEFORE BUT STILL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

WED THROUGH SAT...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON
WED RETURNING TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MODELS SHOW A WEAK
MID-LEVEL PERTABATION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND POSSIBLY
GENERATING A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NERN CORNER OF THE CWA WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
LOWER HUMIDITY. ON THU...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER SOMEWHAT STRONGER
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND DOWN ACRS
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE TAIL END OF THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO
CLIP THE NERN CORNER OF FCST AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF T-STORMS. MORE CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT COOLER ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
THU. ON FRI...RIDGE REGAINS ITS GRIP ON COLORADO RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPS AND MORE SUNSHINE. HOWEVER WITH THE WARMER TEMPS AND
SUNSHINE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON T-STORMS FORMING
OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS BY THE
EVENING. ON SAT...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST ALLOWING
SWLY FLOW ALOFT TO USHER IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TOO SOON TO KNOW WITH ANY
CERTAINTY HOW WET AND STORMY SAT MAY TURN OUT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN EARLY THIS AM WITH S-SW WINDS AT
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH SHOWERS. OVERALL
COVERAGE LOOKS ISOLATED WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY SO MAY KEEP
TERMINALS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW OR A VCSH. BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 020948
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
348 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO WITH A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. OVERALL NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN MOISTURE LEVELS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH
INTEGRATED PW VALUES JUST UNDER AN INCH OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
A BIT HIGHER OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MIDDLE
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF COLORADO.
THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY
ROTATE INTO WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WHICH WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND WEAK QG LIFT.

INITIALLY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BUT SLOWLY SNEAK OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WITH OVERALL SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES UNDER 700J/KG. APPEARS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE FAR NE PLAINS TOWARDS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE4
OF THUNDERSTORMS SPARKING THERE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS READINGS BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO DOWN
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF WILL
APPROACH WITH AIDED MOISTURE AND LIFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SWING NEWRD ACROSS N-
CNTRL/NERN CO MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SEWRD ACRS ERN WY/WRN
SD/WRN NE ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE 4-CORNERS RGN.
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAY MON AND SCATTERED T-STORMS ON THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SYSTEM APPEARS MOST ROBUST ON THE NAM
AND ONLY LACK LUSTER ON THE ECMWF. NAM GENERATES SOME RIDICULOUSLY
HIGH CAPES ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF CO IN THE VCNTY OF A STALLED SFC
FRONTAL ZONE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AND A LOW-LEVEL
JET ALIGNED WITH THE STATE`S ERN BORDER MON NIGHT AND TUE. GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF INDICATE FAR LESS INSTABILITY BUT STILL INDICATE
DECENT SHEAR IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE THE
CANADIAN MODEL GOES SO FAR AS TO SPIN UP A CLOSED 700-500MB LOW OVER
NERN CO LATE MON AND THEN DEEPENS IT AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS E/SEWRD
ACRS NWRN KS OVERNIGHT. PREFER A BLEND OF THE MODELS...EXCLUDING THE
CANADIAN GEM...CENTERED ON THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR THE PLAINS...PLAN
ON GOING WITH HIGHER POPS UP AGAINST THE NRN FRONT RANGE AND ALONG
THE WY BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND OUT ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF
THE STATE MON NIGHT. STORMS FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL JET ARE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HVY
RAINFALL...STG GUSTY WNDS AND HAIL. HIGH TEMPS ON MON EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGS LOWER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY DUE IN LARGE PART TO
CONSIDERABLE MORE CLOUDINESS.

ON TUE...SHOULD SEE PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS DRIER/COOLER AIR SWEEPS IN ON W/NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER COULD SEE A MODEST UPTICK IN SHOWER/T-STORM
ACTIVITY ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE
SHORT-WAVE DYNAMICS BRUSHING THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE DAY BEFORE BUT STILL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

WED THROUGH SAT...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON
WED RETURNING TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MODELS SHOW A WEAK
MID-LEVEL PERTABATION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND POSSIBLY
GENERATING A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NERN CORNER OF THE CWA WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
LOWER HUMIDITY. ON THU...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER SOMEWHAT STRONGER
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND DOWN ACRS
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE TAIL END OF THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO
CLIP THE NERN CORNER OF FCST AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF T-STORMS. MORE CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT COOLER ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
THU. ON FRI...RIDGE REGAINS ITS GRIP ON COLORADO RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPS AND MORE SUNSHINE. HOWEVER WITH THE WARMER TEMPS AND
SUNSHINE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON T-STORMS FORMING
OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS BY THE
EVENING. ON SAT...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST ALLOWING
SWLY FLOW ALOFT TO USHER IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TOO SOON TO KNOW WITH ANY
CERTAINTY HOW WET AND STORMY SAT MAY TURN OUT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN EARLY THIS AM WITH S-SW WINDS AT
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH SHOWERS. OVERALL
COVERAGE LOOKS ISOLATED WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY SO MAY KEEP
TERMINALS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW OR A VCSH. BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 020948
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
348 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO WITH A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. OVERALL NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN MOISTURE LEVELS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH
INTEGRATED PW VALUES JUST UNDER AN INCH OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
A BIT HIGHER OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MIDDLE
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF COLORADO.
THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY
ROTATE INTO WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WHICH WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND WEAK QG LIFT.

INITIALLY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BUT SLOWLY SNEAK OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WITH OVERALL SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES UNDER 700J/KG. APPEARS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE FAR NE PLAINS TOWARDS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE4
OF THUNDERSTORMS SPARKING THERE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS READINGS BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO DOWN
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF WILL
APPROACH WITH AIDED MOISTURE AND LIFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SWING NEWRD ACROSS N-
CNTRL/NERN CO MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SEWRD ACRS ERN WY/WRN
SD/WRN NE ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE 4-CORNERS RGN.
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAY MON AND SCATTERED T-STORMS ON THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SYSTEM APPEARS MOST ROBUST ON THE NAM
AND ONLY LACK LUSTER ON THE ECMWF. NAM GENERATES SOME RIDICULOUSLY
HIGH CAPES ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF CO IN THE VCNTY OF A STALLED SFC
FRONTAL ZONE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AND A LOW-LEVEL
JET ALIGNED WITH THE STATE`S ERN BORDER MON NIGHT AND TUE. GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF INDICATE FAR LESS INSTABILITY BUT STILL INDICATE
DECENT SHEAR IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE THE
CANADIAN MODEL GOES SO FAR AS TO SPIN UP A CLOSED 700-500MB LOW OVER
NERN CO LATE MON AND THEN DEEPENS IT AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS E/SEWRD
ACRS NWRN KS OVERNIGHT. PREFER A BLEND OF THE MODELS...EXCLUDING THE
CANADIAN GEM...CENTERED ON THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR THE PLAINS...PLAN
ON GOING WITH HIGHER POPS UP AGAINST THE NRN FRONT RANGE AND ALONG
THE WY BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND OUT ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF
THE STATE MON NIGHT. STORMS FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL JET ARE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HVY
RAINFALL...STG GUSTY WNDS AND HAIL. HIGH TEMPS ON MON EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGS LOWER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY DUE IN LARGE PART TO
CONSIDERABLE MORE CLOUDINESS.

ON TUE...SHOULD SEE PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS DRIER/COOLER AIR SWEEPS IN ON W/NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER COULD SEE A MODEST UPTICK IN SHOWER/T-STORM
ACTIVITY ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE
SHORT-WAVE DYNAMICS BRUSHING THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE DAY BEFORE BUT STILL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

WED THROUGH SAT...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON
WED RETURNING TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MODELS SHOW A WEAK
MID-LEVEL PERTABATION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND POSSIBLY
GENERATING A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NERN CORNER OF THE CWA WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
LOWER HUMIDITY. ON THU...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER SOMEWHAT STRONGER
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND DOWN ACRS
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE TAIL END OF THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO
CLIP THE NERN CORNER OF FCST AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF T-STORMS. MORE CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT COOLER ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
THU. ON FRI...RIDGE REGAINS ITS GRIP ON COLORADO RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPS AND MORE SUNSHINE. HOWEVER WITH THE WARMER TEMPS AND
SUNSHINE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON T-STORMS FORMING
OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS BY THE
EVENING. ON SAT...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST ALLOWING
SWLY FLOW ALOFT TO USHER IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TOO SOON TO KNOW WITH ANY
CERTAINTY HOW WET AND STORMY SAT MAY TURN OUT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN EARLY THIS AM WITH S-SW WINDS AT
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH SHOWERS. OVERALL
COVERAGE LOOKS ISOLATED WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY SO MAY KEEP
TERMINALS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW OR A VCSH. BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 020221
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
821 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLATED STORMS WERE STILL AFFECTING THE ERN PLAINS BUT SHOULD
END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STABLE LAYER CURRENTLY HELPING TO KEEP STORMS AT BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-70 IS STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED WITH MAIN THREATS BEING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND EAST INTO DENVER DUE
TO MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE CAP DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHRA
DEVELOPING INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT ONCE AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED WITH SOME BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S FOR THE PLAINS AND
40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO UTAH. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO AZ AND
CO. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS CLOSEST TO
THE FOOTHILLS. THERE IS LESS OF A CAP TOMORROW WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE TRANSITIONING OUT AS WELL AS INCREASED MOISTURE. THIS
WILL HELP TO EXTEND THE COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S OVER THE PLAINS AND 60S TO 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN CO. THE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THIS AREA. MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS OF CO...WITH JUST ISOLD POPS IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD AS IT SLOWLY MAKES ITS
WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MORE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH THE
RIDGE REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO. THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN A BIT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSES
ACROSS WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
IF STORMS DEVELOP OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW. A BROAD BUT FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE...BUT
OVERALL POPS WILL BE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BY THE WEEKEND AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH GUSTY SE WINDS MOVED ACROSS THE AIRPORT
EARLIER. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY 10 PM AND BECOME MORE
SLY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RPK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 020221
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
821 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLATED STORMS WERE STILL AFFECTING THE ERN PLAINS BUT SHOULD
END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STABLE LAYER CURRENTLY HELPING TO KEEP STORMS AT BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-70 IS STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED WITH MAIN THREATS BEING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND EAST INTO DENVER DUE
TO MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE CAP DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHRA
DEVELOPING INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT ONCE AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED WITH SOME BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S FOR THE PLAINS AND
40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO UTAH. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO AZ AND
CO. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS CLOSEST TO
THE FOOTHILLS. THERE IS LESS OF A CAP TOMORROW WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE TRANSITIONING OUT AS WELL AS INCREASED MOISTURE. THIS
WILL HELP TO EXTEND THE COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S OVER THE PLAINS AND 60S TO 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN CO. THE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THIS AREA. MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS OF CO...WITH JUST ISOLD POPS IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD AS IT SLOWLY MAKES ITS
WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MORE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH THE
RIDGE REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO. THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN A BIT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSES
ACROSS WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
IF STORMS DEVELOP OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW. A BROAD BUT FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE...BUT
OVERALL POPS WILL BE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BY THE WEEKEND AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH GUSTY SE WINDS MOVED ACROSS THE AIRPORT
EARLIER. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY 10 PM AND BECOME MORE
SLY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 012023
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
223 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STABLE LAYER CURRENTLY HELPING TO KEEP STORMS AT BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-70 IS STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED WITH MAIN THREATS BEING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND EAST INTO DENVER DUE
TO MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE CAP DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHRA
DEVELOPING INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT ONCE AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED WITH SOME BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S FOR THE PLAINS AND
40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO UTAH. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO AZ AND
CO. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS CLOSEST TO
THE FOOTHILLS. THERE IS LESS OF A CAP TOMORROW WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE TRANSITIONING OUT AS WELL AS INCREASED MOISTURE. THIS
WILL HELP TO EXTEND THE COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S OVER THE PLAINS AND 60S TO 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN CO. THE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THIS AREA. MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS OF CO...WITH JUST ISOLD POPS IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD AS IT SLOWLY MAKES ITS
WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MORE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH THE
RIDGE REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO. THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN A BIT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSES
ACROSS WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
IF STORMS DEVELOP OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW. A BROAD BUT FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE...BUT
OVERALL POPS WILL BE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BY THE WEEKEND AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO
THE EAST OF CO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT APA...DEN
AND BJC. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME DEVELOPING SHOWERS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL SO INCLUDED VCSH WITH LIGHT
GUSTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEN TRANSITION AROUND TO DRAINAGE BY 04Z
BEFORE GOING NORTH BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 012023
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
223 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STABLE LAYER CURRENTLY HELPING TO KEEP STORMS AT BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-70 IS STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED WITH MAIN THREATS BEING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND EAST INTO DENVER DUE
TO MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE CAP DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHRA
DEVELOPING INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT ONCE AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED WITH SOME BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S FOR THE PLAINS AND
40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO UTAH. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO AZ AND
CO. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS CLOSEST TO
THE FOOTHILLS. THERE IS LESS OF A CAP TOMORROW WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE TRANSITIONING OUT AS WELL AS INCREASED MOISTURE. THIS
WILL HELP TO EXTEND THE COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S OVER THE PLAINS AND 60S TO 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN CO. THE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THIS AREA. MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS OF CO...WITH JUST ISOLD POPS IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD AS IT SLOWLY MAKES ITS
WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MORE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH THE
RIDGE REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO. THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN A BIT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSES
ACROSS WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
IF STORMS DEVELOP OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW. A BROAD BUT FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE...BUT
OVERALL POPS WILL BE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BY THE WEEKEND AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO
THE EAST OF CO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT APA...DEN
AND BJC. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME DEVELOPING SHOWERS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL SO INCLUDED VCSH WITH LIGHT
GUSTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEN TRANSITION AROUND TO DRAINAGE BY 04Z
BEFORE GOING NORTH BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 012023
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
223 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STABLE LAYER CURRENTLY HELPING TO KEEP STORMS AT BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-70 IS STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED WITH MAIN THREATS BEING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND EAST INTO DENVER DUE
TO MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE CAP DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHRA
DEVELOPING INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT ONCE AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED WITH SOME BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S FOR THE PLAINS AND
40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO UTAH. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO AZ AND
CO. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS CLOSEST TO
THE FOOTHILLS. THERE IS LESS OF A CAP TOMORROW WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE TRANSITIONING OUT AS WELL AS INCREASED MOISTURE. THIS
WILL HELP TO EXTEND THE COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S OVER THE PLAINS AND 60S TO 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN CO. THE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THIS AREA. MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS OF CO...WITH JUST ISOLD POPS IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD AS IT SLOWLY MAKES ITS
WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MORE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH THE
RIDGE REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO. THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN A BIT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSES
ACROSS WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
IF STORMS DEVELOP OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW. A BROAD BUT FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE...BUT
OVERALL POPS WILL BE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BY THE WEEKEND AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO
THE EAST OF CO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT APA...DEN
AND BJC. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME DEVELOPING SHOWERS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL SO INCLUDED VCSH WITH LIGHT
GUSTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEN TRANSITION AROUND TO DRAINAGE BY 04Z
BEFORE GOING NORTH BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 011549
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
949 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY FOR THIS
MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE PLAINS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT MODELS STILL SHOWING A
DECENT CAP WITH QG SUBSIDENCE SO KEPT PRECIP ISOLATED TO THE
SOUTH. MAY HAVE TO TRIM BACK A LITTLE BUT WILL WAIT FOR NEXT MODEL
RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ELONGATED UPPER HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STRETCHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS WITH RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. AIRMASS IN THIS FLOW IS RATHER DRY
AND STABLE OVER FAR NORTHERN COLORADO AND QG FIELDS STILL SHOWING
SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN THE 500-700MB LAYER OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE WILL AGAIN REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO AND EXTENDING TO JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED CAPPING INVERSION IN THE
MID LEVELS ON THE PLAINS WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING CONTINUES WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
LOWER POPS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS FCST TO SWING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN OVER CENTRAL COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS
BEST RESOLVE THIS FEATURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WITH THE WAVE
SHOWING UP STRONGEST ON THE NAM AND WEAKEST ON THE CANADIAN GEM.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A SUITABLE COMPROMISE AMONG THE  OPERATIONAL
MODELS. THAT SAID...ECMWF INDICATES SOME AMPLIFICATION IN THIS S/W
TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY PASSES OVER COLORADO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ITS
PASSAGE WEAKENS AND DISPLACES EASTWARD THE RESIDENT UPPER RIDGE AND
THE SHIFT TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT TAPS INTO A REGION OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE POOLED OVER NRN NEW MEXICO/NERN ARIZONA. ECMWF QG OMEGA
FIELDS INDICATE ONLY WEAK LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND YET THE EC
AND OTHER MODELS SHOW LIGHT/MODERATE QPF OVER MUCH OF SWRN/CNTRL
COLORADO BY SUNDAY EVENING. NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS...SHOW A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT QPF EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS OF NERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE E-SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. NOT SHOWING UP IN THIS
LATEST MODEL RUN IS THE BAND OF 1200-2200 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NAM INDICATES A
NW-SE BAND OF 1000-1400 CAPE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE
STATE AT THAT TIME. CAPES ON THE OTHER MODELS UNDER 250 J/KG.
THEREFORE HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE THAT T-STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...HVY RAINFALL AND STG GUSTY WINDS WILL FORM OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH 30-50 PCT POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND 10-30 PCT POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY. AND WITH GREATER
CLOUD COVER GOING WITH MAX TEMPS A DEG OR TWO LOWER THAN THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...EXPECT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. MODELS INDICATE THE BEST
FORCING AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER MTN AREAS OVERNIGHT AND
OVER THE NERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. DURING THE DAY...MODELS SHOW
A 700-500 MB SHEAR/DEFORMATION AXIS AND A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE
MOVING OUT ACRS THE NERN PLAINS. MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH 0-3 KM
CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PRESUMABLY BECAUSE
OF ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER. STILL MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL POCKETS
OF LIGHT QPF ON THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD 10-20 PCT POPS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. NOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS
SLIGHTLY BETTER. SO WILL RAISE POPS BY 10-20 PCT. MONDAY SHOULD BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS 2-3 DEG F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE.

ON TUESDAY...ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL FEEL MODEST AFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE FORM OF COOLER TEMPS AND UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE MORNING HRS. SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO REGAIN ITS
HOLD ON THE REGION. WITH COOLING AT LOW LEVELS AND WARMING
ALOFT...SEE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP/T-STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ACRS THE
FAR NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE S/W TROUGH
BRUSHES THE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKY
MTN REGION CONTINUING TO GAIN STRENGTH. LOCAL AIRMASS ALSO CONTINUES
TO WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST OF
THE WEEK WITH MID-90S MAX TEMPS COMMON ON THE PLAINS.

ROUNDING OUT THE WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING STRONG OVER THE ROCKY MTN REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS NORTHERN
FRINGE FLATTENS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES EAST ACRS MONTANA AND
WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY EXCEPT
PERHAPS A FEW LATE DAY SHWRS OVER THE HIGH MTNS. FRIDAY APPEARS
TO START OUT DRY. THEN MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND GENERATING A SMATTERING OF SHWRS/T-STORMS AS
IT PASSES OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH LOW POPS. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLER DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 940 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL AIRPORTS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE THE SW THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO THE NE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 011549
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
949 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY FOR THIS
MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE PLAINS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT MODELS STILL SHOWING A
DECENT CAP WITH QG SUBSIDENCE SO KEPT PRECIP ISOLATED TO THE
SOUTH. MAY HAVE TO TRIM BACK A LITTLE BUT WILL WAIT FOR NEXT MODEL
RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ELONGATED UPPER HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STRETCHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS WITH RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. AIRMASS IN THIS FLOW IS RATHER DRY
AND STABLE OVER FAR NORTHERN COLORADO AND QG FIELDS STILL SHOWING
SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN THE 500-700MB LAYER OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE WILL AGAIN REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO AND EXTENDING TO JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED CAPPING INVERSION IN THE
MID LEVELS ON THE PLAINS WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING CONTINUES WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
LOWER POPS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS FCST TO SWING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN OVER CENTRAL COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS
BEST RESOLVE THIS FEATURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WITH THE WAVE
SHOWING UP STRONGEST ON THE NAM AND WEAKEST ON THE CANADIAN GEM.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A SUITABLE COMPROMISE AMONG THE  OPERATIONAL
MODELS. THAT SAID...ECMWF INDICATES SOME AMPLIFICATION IN THIS S/W
TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY PASSES OVER COLORADO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ITS
PASSAGE WEAKENS AND DISPLACES EASTWARD THE RESIDENT UPPER RIDGE AND
THE SHIFT TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT TAPS INTO A REGION OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE POOLED OVER NRN NEW MEXICO/NERN ARIZONA. ECMWF QG OMEGA
FIELDS INDICATE ONLY WEAK LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND YET THE EC
AND OTHER MODELS SHOW LIGHT/MODERATE QPF OVER MUCH OF SWRN/CNTRL
COLORADO BY SUNDAY EVENING. NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS...SHOW A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT QPF EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS OF NERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE E-SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. NOT SHOWING UP IN THIS
LATEST MODEL RUN IS THE BAND OF 1200-2200 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NAM INDICATES A
NW-SE BAND OF 1000-1400 CAPE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE
STATE AT THAT TIME. CAPES ON THE OTHER MODELS UNDER 250 J/KG.
THEREFORE HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE THAT T-STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...HVY RAINFALL AND STG GUSTY WINDS WILL FORM OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH 30-50 PCT POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND 10-30 PCT POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY. AND WITH GREATER
CLOUD COVER GOING WITH MAX TEMPS A DEG OR TWO LOWER THAN THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...EXPECT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. MODELS INDICATE THE BEST
FORCING AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER MTN AREAS OVERNIGHT AND
OVER THE NERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. DURING THE DAY...MODELS SHOW
A 700-500 MB SHEAR/DEFORMATION AXIS AND A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE
MOVING OUT ACRS THE NERN PLAINS. MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH 0-3 KM
CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PRESUMABLY BECAUSE
OF ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER. STILL MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL POCKETS
OF LIGHT QPF ON THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD 10-20 PCT POPS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. NOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS
SLIGHTLY BETTER. SO WILL RAISE POPS BY 10-20 PCT. MONDAY SHOULD BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS 2-3 DEG F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE.

ON TUESDAY...ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL FEEL MODEST AFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE FORM OF COOLER TEMPS AND UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE MORNING HRS. SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO REGAIN ITS
HOLD ON THE REGION. WITH COOLING AT LOW LEVELS AND WARMING
ALOFT...SEE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP/T-STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ACRS THE
FAR NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE S/W TROUGH
BRUSHES THE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKY
MTN REGION CONTINUING TO GAIN STRENGTH. LOCAL AIRMASS ALSO CONTINUES
TO WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST OF
THE WEEK WITH MID-90S MAX TEMPS COMMON ON THE PLAINS.

ROUNDING OUT THE WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING STRONG OVER THE ROCKY MTN REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS NORTHERN
FRINGE FLATTENS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES EAST ACRS MONTANA AND
WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY EXCEPT
PERHAPS A FEW LATE DAY SHWRS OVER THE HIGH MTNS. FRIDAY APPEARS
TO START OUT DRY. THEN MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND GENERATING A SMATTERING OF SHWRS/T-STORMS AS
IT PASSES OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH LOW POPS. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLER DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 940 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL AIRPORTS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE THE SW THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO THE NE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 011549
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
949 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY FOR THIS
MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE PLAINS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT MODELS STILL SHOWING A
DECENT CAP WITH QG SUBSIDENCE SO KEPT PRECIP ISOLATED TO THE
SOUTH. MAY HAVE TO TRIM BACK A LITTLE BUT WILL WAIT FOR NEXT MODEL
RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ELONGATED UPPER HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STRETCHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS WITH RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. AIRMASS IN THIS FLOW IS RATHER DRY
AND STABLE OVER FAR NORTHERN COLORADO AND QG FIELDS STILL SHOWING
SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN THE 500-700MB LAYER OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE WILL AGAIN REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO AND EXTENDING TO JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED CAPPING INVERSION IN THE
MID LEVELS ON THE PLAINS WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING CONTINUES WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
LOWER POPS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS FCST TO SWING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN OVER CENTRAL COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS
BEST RESOLVE THIS FEATURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WITH THE WAVE
SHOWING UP STRONGEST ON THE NAM AND WEAKEST ON THE CANADIAN GEM.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A SUITABLE COMPROMISE AMONG THE  OPERATIONAL
MODELS. THAT SAID...ECMWF INDICATES SOME AMPLIFICATION IN THIS S/W
TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY PASSES OVER COLORADO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ITS
PASSAGE WEAKENS AND DISPLACES EASTWARD THE RESIDENT UPPER RIDGE AND
THE SHIFT TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT TAPS INTO A REGION OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE POOLED OVER NRN NEW MEXICO/NERN ARIZONA. ECMWF QG OMEGA
FIELDS INDICATE ONLY WEAK LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND YET THE EC
AND OTHER MODELS SHOW LIGHT/MODERATE QPF OVER MUCH OF SWRN/CNTRL
COLORADO BY SUNDAY EVENING. NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS...SHOW A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT QPF EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS OF NERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE E-SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. NOT SHOWING UP IN THIS
LATEST MODEL RUN IS THE BAND OF 1200-2200 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NAM INDICATES A
NW-SE BAND OF 1000-1400 CAPE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE
STATE AT THAT TIME. CAPES ON THE OTHER MODELS UNDER 250 J/KG.
THEREFORE HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE THAT T-STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...HVY RAINFALL AND STG GUSTY WINDS WILL FORM OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH 30-50 PCT POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND 10-30 PCT POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY. AND WITH GREATER
CLOUD COVER GOING WITH MAX TEMPS A DEG OR TWO LOWER THAN THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...EXPECT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. MODELS INDICATE THE BEST
FORCING AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER MTN AREAS OVERNIGHT AND
OVER THE NERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. DURING THE DAY...MODELS SHOW
A 700-500 MB SHEAR/DEFORMATION AXIS AND A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE
MOVING OUT ACRS THE NERN PLAINS. MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH 0-3 KM
CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PRESUMABLY BECAUSE
OF ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER. STILL MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL POCKETS
OF LIGHT QPF ON THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD 10-20 PCT POPS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. NOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS
SLIGHTLY BETTER. SO WILL RAISE POPS BY 10-20 PCT. MONDAY SHOULD BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS 2-3 DEG F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE.

ON TUESDAY...ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL FEEL MODEST AFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE FORM OF COOLER TEMPS AND UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE MORNING HRS. SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO REGAIN ITS
HOLD ON THE REGION. WITH COOLING AT LOW LEVELS AND WARMING
ALOFT...SEE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP/T-STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ACRS THE
FAR NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE S/W TROUGH
BRUSHES THE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKY
MTN REGION CONTINUING TO GAIN STRENGTH. LOCAL AIRMASS ALSO CONTINUES
TO WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST OF
THE WEEK WITH MID-90S MAX TEMPS COMMON ON THE PLAINS.

ROUNDING OUT THE WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING STRONG OVER THE ROCKY MTN REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS NORTHERN
FRINGE FLATTENS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES EAST ACRS MONTANA AND
WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY EXCEPT
PERHAPS A FEW LATE DAY SHWRS OVER THE HIGH MTNS. FRIDAY APPEARS
TO START OUT DRY. THEN MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND GENERATING A SMATTERING OF SHWRS/T-STORMS AS
IT PASSES OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH LOW POPS. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLER DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 940 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL AIRPORTS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE THE SW THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO THE NE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 010935
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
335 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ELONGATED UPPER HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STRETCHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS WITH RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. AIRMASS IN THIS FLOW IS RATHER DRY
AND STABLE OVER FAR NORTHERN COLORADO AND QG FIELDS STILL SHOWING
SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN THE 500-700MB LAYER OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE WILL AGAIN REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO AND EXTENDING TO JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED CAPPING INVERSION IN THE
MID LEVELS ON THE PLAINS WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING CONTINUES WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
LOWER POPS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS FCST TO SWING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN OVER CENTRAL COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS
BEST RESOLVE THIS FEATURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WITH THE WAVE
SHOWING UP STRONGEST ON THE NAM AND WEAKEST ON THE CANADIAN GEM.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A SUITABLE COMPROMISE AMONG THE  OPERATIONAL
MODELS. THAT SAID...ECMWF INDICATES SOME AMPLIFICATION IN THIS S/W
TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY PASSES OVER COLORADO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ITS
PASSAGE WEAKENS AND DISPLACES EASTWARD THE RESIDENT UPPER RIDGE AND
THE SHIFT TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT TAPS INTO A REGION OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE POOLED OVER NRN NEW MEXICO/NERN ARIZONA. ECMWF QG OMEGA
FIELDS INDICATE ONLY WEAK LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND YET THE EC
AND OTHER MODELS SHOW LIGHT/MODERATE QPF OVER MUCH OF SWRN/CNTRL
COLORADO BY SUNDAY EVENING. NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS...SHOW A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT QPF EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS OF NERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE E-SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. NOT SHOWING UP IN THIS
LATEST MODEL RUN IS THE BAND OF 1200-2200 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NAM INDICATES A
NW-SE BAND OF 1000-1400 CAPE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE
STATE AT THAT TIME. CAPES ON THE OTHER MODELS UNDER 250 J/KG.
THEREFORE HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE THAT T-STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...HVY RAINFALL AND STG GUSTY WINDS WILL FORM OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH 30-50 PCT POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND 10-30 PCT POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY. AND WITH GREATER
CLOUD COVER GOING WITH MAX TEMPS A DEG OR TWO LOWER THAN THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...EXPECT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. MODELS INDICATE THE BEST
FORCING AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER MTN AREAS OVERNIGHT AND
OVER THE NERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. DURING THE DAY...MODELS SHOW
A 700-500 MB SHEAR/DEFORMATION AXIS AND A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE
MOVING OUT ACRS THE NERN PLAINS. MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH 0-3 KM
CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PRESUMABLY BECAUSE
OF ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER. STILL MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL POCKETS
OF LIGHT QPF ON THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD 10-20 PCT POPS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. NOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS
SLIGHTLY BETTER. SO WILL RAISE POPS BY 10-20 PCT. MONDAY SHOULD BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS 2-3 DEG F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE.

ON TUESDAY...ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL FEEL MODEST AFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE FORM OF COOLER TEMPS AND UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE MORNING HRS. SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO REGAIN ITS
HOLD ON THE REGION. WITH COOLING AT LOW LEVELS AND WARMING
ALOFT...SEE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP/T-STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ACRS THE
FAR NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE S/W TROUGH
BRUSHES THE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKY
MTN REGION CONTINUING TO GAIN STRENGTH. LOCAL AIRMASS ALSO CONTINUES
TO WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST OF
THE WEEK WITH MID-90S MAX TEMPS COMMON ON THE PLAINS.

ROUNDING OUT THE WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING STRONG OVER THE ROCKY MTN REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS NORTHERN
FRINGE FLATTENS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES EAST ACRS MONTANA AND
WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY EXCEPT
PERHAPS A FEW LATE DAY SHWRS OVER THE HIGH MTNS. FRIDAY APPEARS
TO START OUT DRY. THEN MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND GENERATING A SMATTERING OF SHWRS/T-STORMS AS
IT PASSES OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH LOW POPS. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLER DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR TODAY WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TODAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF TERMINALS. COULD BE SOME RETURN OUTFLOW FROM
SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTH. OTHERWISE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOME SORT OF EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 010935
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
335 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ELONGATED UPPER HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STRETCHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS WITH RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. AIRMASS IN THIS FLOW IS RATHER DRY
AND STABLE OVER FAR NORTHERN COLORADO AND QG FIELDS STILL SHOWING
SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN THE 500-700MB LAYER OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE WILL AGAIN REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO AND EXTENDING TO JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED CAPPING INVERSION IN THE
MID LEVELS ON THE PLAINS WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING CONTINUES WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
LOWER POPS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS FCST TO SWING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN OVER CENTRAL COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS
BEST RESOLVE THIS FEATURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WITH THE WAVE
SHOWING UP STRONGEST ON THE NAM AND WEAKEST ON THE CANADIAN GEM.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A SUITABLE COMPROMISE AMONG THE  OPERATIONAL
MODELS. THAT SAID...ECMWF INDICATES SOME AMPLIFICATION IN THIS S/W
TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY PASSES OVER COLORADO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ITS
PASSAGE WEAKENS AND DISPLACES EASTWARD THE RESIDENT UPPER RIDGE AND
THE SHIFT TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT TAPS INTO A REGION OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE POOLED OVER NRN NEW MEXICO/NERN ARIZONA. ECMWF QG OMEGA
FIELDS INDICATE ONLY WEAK LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND YET THE EC
AND OTHER MODELS SHOW LIGHT/MODERATE QPF OVER MUCH OF SWRN/CNTRL
COLORADO BY SUNDAY EVENING. NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS...SHOW A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT QPF EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS OF NERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE E-SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. NOT SHOWING UP IN THIS
LATEST MODEL RUN IS THE BAND OF 1200-2200 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NAM INDICATES A
NW-SE BAND OF 1000-1400 CAPE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE
STATE AT THAT TIME. CAPES ON THE OTHER MODELS UNDER 250 J/KG.
THEREFORE HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE THAT T-STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...HVY RAINFALL AND STG GUSTY WINDS WILL FORM OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH 30-50 PCT POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND 10-30 PCT POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY. AND WITH GREATER
CLOUD COVER GOING WITH MAX TEMPS A DEG OR TWO LOWER THAN THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...EXPECT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. MODELS INDICATE THE BEST
FORCING AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER MTN AREAS OVERNIGHT AND
OVER THE NERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. DURING THE DAY...MODELS SHOW
A 700-500 MB SHEAR/DEFORMATION AXIS AND A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE
MOVING OUT ACRS THE NERN PLAINS. MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH 0-3 KM
CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PRESUMABLY BECAUSE
OF ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER. STILL MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL POCKETS
OF LIGHT QPF ON THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD 10-20 PCT POPS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. NOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS
SLIGHTLY BETTER. SO WILL RAISE POPS BY 10-20 PCT. MONDAY SHOULD BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS 2-3 DEG F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE.

ON TUESDAY...ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL FEEL MODEST AFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE FORM OF COOLER TEMPS AND UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE MORNING HRS. SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO REGAIN ITS
HOLD ON THE REGION. WITH COOLING AT LOW LEVELS AND WARMING
ALOFT...SEE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP/T-STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ACRS THE
FAR NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE S/W TROUGH
BRUSHES THE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKY
MTN REGION CONTINUING TO GAIN STRENGTH. LOCAL AIRMASS ALSO CONTINUES
TO WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST OF
THE WEEK WITH MID-90S MAX TEMPS COMMON ON THE PLAINS.

ROUNDING OUT THE WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING STRONG OVER THE ROCKY MTN REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS NORTHERN
FRINGE FLATTENS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES EAST ACRS MONTANA AND
WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY EXCEPT
PERHAPS A FEW LATE DAY SHWRS OVER THE HIGH MTNS. FRIDAY APPEARS
TO START OUT DRY. THEN MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND GENERATING A SMATTERING OF SHWRS/T-STORMS AS
IT PASSES OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH LOW POPS. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLER DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR TODAY WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TODAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF TERMINALS. COULD BE SOME RETURN OUTFLOW FROM
SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTH. OTHERWISE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOME SORT OF EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 010935
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
335 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ELONGATED UPPER HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STRETCHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS WITH RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. AIRMASS IN THIS FLOW IS RATHER DRY
AND STABLE OVER FAR NORTHERN COLORADO AND QG FIELDS STILL SHOWING
SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN THE 500-700MB LAYER OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE WILL AGAIN REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO AND EXTENDING TO JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED CAPPING INVERSION IN THE
MID LEVELS ON THE PLAINS WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING CONTINUES WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
LOWER POPS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS FCST TO SWING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN OVER CENTRAL COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS
BEST RESOLVE THIS FEATURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WITH THE WAVE
SHOWING UP STRONGEST ON THE NAM AND WEAKEST ON THE CANADIAN GEM.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A SUITABLE COMPROMISE AMONG THE  OPERATIONAL
MODELS. THAT SAID...ECMWF INDICATES SOME AMPLIFICATION IN THIS S/W
TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY PASSES OVER COLORADO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ITS
PASSAGE WEAKENS AND DISPLACES EASTWARD THE RESIDENT UPPER RIDGE AND
THE SHIFT TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT TAPS INTO A REGION OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE POOLED OVER NRN NEW MEXICO/NERN ARIZONA. ECMWF QG OMEGA
FIELDS INDICATE ONLY WEAK LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND YET THE EC
AND OTHER MODELS SHOW LIGHT/MODERATE QPF OVER MUCH OF SWRN/CNTRL
COLORADO BY SUNDAY EVENING. NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS...SHOW A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT QPF EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS OF NERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE E-SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. NOT SHOWING UP IN THIS
LATEST MODEL RUN IS THE BAND OF 1200-2200 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NAM INDICATES A
NW-SE BAND OF 1000-1400 CAPE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE
STATE AT THAT TIME. CAPES ON THE OTHER MODELS UNDER 250 J/KG.
THEREFORE HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE THAT T-STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...HVY RAINFALL AND STG GUSTY WINDS WILL FORM OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH 30-50 PCT POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND 10-30 PCT POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY. AND WITH GREATER
CLOUD COVER GOING WITH MAX TEMPS A DEG OR TWO LOWER THAN THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...EXPECT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. MODELS INDICATE THE BEST
FORCING AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER MTN AREAS OVERNIGHT AND
OVER THE NERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. DURING THE DAY...MODELS SHOW
A 700-500 MB SHEAR/DEFORMATION AXIS AND A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE
MOVING OUT ACRS THE NERN PLAINS. MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH 0-3 KM
CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PRESUMABLY BECAUSE
OF ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER. STILL MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL POCKETS
OF LIGHT QPF ON THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD 10-20 PCT POPS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. NOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS
SLIGHTLY BETTER. SO WILL RAISE POPS BY 10-20 PCT. MONDAY SHOULD BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS 2-3 DEG F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE.

ON TUESDAY...ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL FEEL MODEST AFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE FORM OF COOLER TEMPS AND UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE MORNING HRS. SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO REGAIN ITS
HOLD ON THE REGION. WITH COOLING AT LOW LEVELS AND WARMING
ALOFT...SEE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP/T-STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ACRS THE
FAR NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE S/W TROUGH
BRUSHES THE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKY
MTN REGION CONTINUING TO GAIN STRENGTH. LOCAL AIRMASS ALSO CONTINUES
TO WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST OF
THE WEEK WITH MID-90S MAX TEMPS COMMON ON THE PLAINS.

ROUNDING OUT THE WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING STRONG OVER THE ROCKY MTN REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS NORTHERN
FRINGE FLATTENS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES EAST ACRS MONTANA AND
WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY EXCEPT
PERHAPS A FEW LATE DAY SHWRS OVER THE HIGH MTNS. FRIDAY APPEARS
TO START OUT DRY. THEN MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND GENERATING A SMATTERING OF SHWRS/T-STORMS AS
IT PASSES OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH LOW POPS. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLER DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR TODAY WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TODAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF TERMINALS. COULD BE SOME RETURN OUTFLOW FROM
SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTH. OTHERWISE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOME SORT OF EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 010147
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
747 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TSTMS HAD ENDED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SO WILL DROP POPS IN MOST
AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM AND PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS SLOWER SO
SOME STORMS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE IT OFF THE
HILLS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 BUT THE PLAINS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
DRY THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A CAPPED ATM AT 500 MB THAT
WILL HELP TO KEEP STORMS OFF THE PLAINS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE
AT 700MB. CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SOUTH OF I-70 BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND UPPER 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
BEGINNING SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY...AND A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND BROADEN/
INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
WITH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE MONDAY...THE REST OF THE WEEK ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS HAVE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ONE WEAK BOUNDARY MOVED ACROSS AND SWITCHED THE WINDS TO SLY.
OVERALL WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD STAY S/SSW BASED ON LATEST DATA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...RTG
AVIATION...RPK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 010147
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
747 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TSTMS HAD ENDED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SO WILL DROP POPS IN MOST
AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM AND PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS SLOWER SO
SOME STORMS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE IT OFF THE
HILLS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 BUT THE PLAINS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
DRY THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A CAPPED ATM AT 500 MB THAT
WILL HELP TO KEEP STORMS OFF THE PLAINS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE
AT 700MB. CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SOUTH OF I-70 BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND UPPER 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
BEGINNING SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY...AND A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND BROADEN/
INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
WITH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE MONDAY...THE REST OF THE WEEK ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS HAVE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ONE WEAK BOUNDARY MOVED ACROSS AND SWITCHED THE WINDS TO SLY.
OVERALL WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD STAY S/SSW BASED ON LATEST DATA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...RTG
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 010147
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
747 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TSTMS HAD ENDED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SO WILL DROP POPS IN MOST
AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM AND PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS SLOWER SO
SOME STORMS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE IT OFF THE
HILLS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 BUT THE PLAINS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
DRY THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A CAPPED ATM AT 500 MB THAT
WILL HELP TO KEEP STORMS OFF THE PLAINS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE
AT 700MB. CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SOUTH OF I-70 BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND UPPER 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
BEGINNING SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY...AND A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND BROADEN/
INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
WITH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE MONDAY...THE REST OF THE WEEK ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS HAVE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ONE WEAK BOUNDARY MOVED ACROSS AND SWITCHED THE WINDS TO SLY.
OVERALL WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD STAY S/SSW BASED ON LATEST DATA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...RTG
AVIATION...RPK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 312011
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
211 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM AND PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS SLOWER SO
SOME STORMS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE IT OFF THE
HILLS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 BUT THE PLAINS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
DRY THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A CAPPED ATM AT 500 MB THAT
WILL HELP TO KEEP STORMS OFF THE PLAINS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE
AT 700MB. CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SOUTH OF I-70 BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND UPPER 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
BEGINNING SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY...AND A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND BROADEN/
INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
WITH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE MONDAY...THE REST OF THE WEEK ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS HAVE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24HRS. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SE WITH LIGHT GUSTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SWITCHING TO DRAINAGE BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS OFF THE FOOTHILLS
WILL HAVE HIGH ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR VCSH WITH A BKN DECK HOVERING
AROUND 090 BUT DO NOT EXPECT STORMS TO MAKE IT DIRECTLY OVER DEN
OR APA. BJC COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 20 AND
22Z THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...RTG
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 312011
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
211 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM AND PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS SLOWER SO
SOME STORMS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE IT OFF THE
HILLS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 BUT THE PLAINS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
DRY THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A CAPPED ATM AT 500 MB THAT
WILL HELP TO KEEP STORMS OFF THE PLAINS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE
AT 700MB. CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SOUTH OF I-70 BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND UPPER 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
BEGINNING SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY...AND A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND BROADEN/
INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
WITH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE MONDAY...THE REST OF THE WEEK ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS HAVE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24HRS. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SE WITH LIGHT GUSTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SWITCHING TO DRAINAGE BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS OFF THE FOOTHILLS
WILL HAVE HIGH ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR VCSH WITH A BKN DECK HOVERING
AROUND 090 BUT DO NOT EXPECT STORMS TO MAKE IT DIRECTLY OVER DEN
OR APA. BJC COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 20 AND
22Z THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...RTG
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 312011
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
211 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM AND PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS SLOWER SO
SOME STORMS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE IT OFF THE
HILLS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 BUT THE PLAINS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
DRY THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A CAPPED ATM AT 500 MB THAT
WILL HELP TO KEEP STORMS OFF THE PLAINS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE
AT 700MB. CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SOUTH OF I-70 BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND UPPER 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
BEGINNING SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY...AND A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND BROADEN/
INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
WITH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE MONDAY...THE REST OF THE WEEK ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS HAVE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24HRS. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SE WITH LIGHT GUSTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SWITCHING TO DRAINAGE BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS OFF THE FOOTHILLS
WILL HAVE HIGH ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR VCSH WITH A BKN DECK HOVERING
AROUND 090 BUT DO NOT EXPECT STORMS TO MAKE IT DIRECTLY OVER DEN
OR APA. BJC COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 20 AND
22Z THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...RTG
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 311619
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1019 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CU START TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HRRR AND RAP CONTINUING TO SHOW STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE DIVIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY MOVE OFF
THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF PARK...JEFFERSON AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES BY THE EARLY EVENING. BIGGEST THREATS WILL BE BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER WEST AND
NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ALSO SEEP INTO COLORADO WHERE INTEGRATED PW
VALUES HAVE ALREADY INCREASED AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE
PAST 12 HOURS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. STILL THOUGH MID LEVEL
INVERSION AROUND 500MB WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. NAM SEEMS THE MOST BULLISH ON MOISTURE AND STORM
POTENTIAL WHILE THE THE RAP IS THE DRIEST. EXPECT MAJORITY OF
STORMS WILL BE OVER EAST SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME OF THIS
MAY SPILL OUT OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
NOT MUCH HELP UPSTAIRS AS QG FIELDS SHOWING SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE
700MB LAYERS AND NEUTRAL FORCING ALOFT. ISOLATED POPS ON THE
PLAINS WITH HIGHER SCATTERED CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD
SUFFICE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY READINGS.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH LACK OF ANY
UPPER AIR SUPPORT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE IS STILL OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH THE 500MB HIGH OVER SERN NEW MEX. AT THE SFC...
BROAD CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AROUND A STG HIGH IN NWRN ARKANSAS
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. MEANWHILE THE MID-LEVEL
NWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DRY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN 80-90KT JET
SEGMENT. BY LATE AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW A NEARLY NEUTRAL TILT UPPER
RIDGE MIGRATING EASTWARD OVER ERN UTAH/COLORADO CAUSING THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA TO BECOME N-NWLY. AT THE SAME TIME
SELY BNDRY LAYER FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE FCST AREA. MODELS SHOW MEAN LAYER PW
VALUES PUSHING AN INCH ACRS SERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY EVENING.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...CAPPED BY A MUCH
DRIER N-NWLY FLOW ABOVE 650 MBS. OVERNIGHT SELY SFC WINDS ON THE
PLAINS TURN SWLY WHICH FLUSHES OUT SOME OF THE MOISTURE UP ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE.

DRY OUT IS SHORT-LIVED AS THE GFS...SREF AND NAM SHOW A RETURN TO A
MOIST SELY FLOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW MEAN LAYER PW
VALUES APPROACH 1.25 INCH OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 URBAN
CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS TIME THE MOISTURE LAYER APPEARS
DEEPER AND WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE TRANSPORT WINDS SLOW STORM MOTIONS
WOULD CONCEIVABLY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH QPF
FIELDS DO NOT INDICATE ANYTHING LIKE THAT HAPPENING APPARENTLY DUE
TO A LACK OF CAPE AND SOME KIND OF FORCING MECHANISM SUCH AS A
FRONTAL BNDRY OR DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE CAPES IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...AND ON THE NAM AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG...AND
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/SHEAR ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. ITS MORE
LIKELY HERE THAT A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL
AND STG GUSTY WINDS WILL FORM AND TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
DIVIDE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS ON SUN. THE SRN
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH PARK IS ANOTHER AREA WHERE THERE`S
AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THIS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE SELY FLOW. ACTUALLY THERE`S A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL IN PARK COUNTY WITH THIS SET UP.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL NOW SHOW A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWRD ACRS THE STATE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
COLLAPSING AS IT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WAVE IS FCST TO REACH THE
FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ITS PASSAGE
COULD ENHANCE OR EXTEND SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HRS. NOT SURE THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MODEST QG LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORE CLOUD COVER AND
A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. MOST MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE EXITING THE STATE BY EVENING
WITH DRYING AND STABILIZATION IN ITS WAKE AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY WITH ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT RELEGATED TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. ON WEDNESDAY... TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM BOTH SFC AND ALOFT...AND HUMIDITIES LOWER WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HOWEVER STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LATE DAY GUSTY T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

BY THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS PLACING COLORADO UNDER SWLY FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CARRIED NORTH BY THIS FLOW IN TANDEM WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MODELS SHOW SWINGING OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS
REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS A RESULT COULD SEE A MODEST INCREASE IN T-
STORM CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE THURSDAY TEMPS
LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1013 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL AIRPORTS. A MID LEVEL
BKN DECK WILL FORM WITH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SOME SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY TO
THE SE THEN TRANSITION TO DRAINAGE BY THE EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 311619
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1019 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CU START TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HRRR AND RAP CONTINUING TO SHOW STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE DIVIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY MOVE OFF
THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF PARK...JEFFERSON AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES BY THE EARLY EVENING. BIGGEST THREATS WILL BE BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER WEST AND
NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ALSO SEEP INTO COLORADO WHERE INTEGRATED PW
VALUES HAVE ALREADY INCREASED AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE
PAST 12 HOURS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. STILL THOUGH MID LEVEL
INVERSION AROUND 500MB WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. NAM SEEMS THE MOST BULLISH ON MOISTURE AND STORM
POTENTIAL WHILE THE THE RAP IS THE DRIEST. EXPECT MAJORITY OF
STORMS WILL BE OVER EAST SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME OF THIS
MAY SPILL OUT OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
NOT MUCH HELP UPSTAIRS AS QG FIELDS SHOWING SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE
700MB LAYERS AND NEUTRAL FORCING ALOFT. ISOLATED POPS ON THE
PLAINS WITH HIGHER SCATTERED CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD
SUFFICE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY READINGS.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH LACK OF ANY
UPPER AIR SUPPORT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE IS STILL OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH THE 500MB HIGH OVER SERN NEW MEX. AT THE SFC...
BROAD CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AROUND A STG HIGH IN NWRN ARKANSAS
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. MEANWHILE THE MID-LEVEL
NWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DRY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN 80-90KT JET
SEGMENT. BY LATE AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW A NEARLY NEUTRAL TILT UPPER
RIDGE MIGRATING EASTWARD OVER ERN UTAH/COLORADO CAUSING THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA TO BECOME N-NWLY. AT THE SAME TIME
SELY BNDRY LAYER FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE FCST AREA. MODELS SHOW MEAN LAYER PW
VALUES PUSHING AN INCH ACRS SERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY EVENING.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...CAPPED BY A MUCH
DRIER N-NWLY FLOW ABOVE 650 MBS. OVERNIGHT SELY SFC WINDS ON THE
PLAINS TURN SWLY WHICH FLUSHES OUT SOME OF THE MOISTURE UP ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE.

DRY OUT IS SHORT-LIVED AS THE GFS...SREF AND NAM SHOW A RETURN TO A
MOIST SELY FLOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW MEAN LAYER PW
VALUES APPROACH 1.25 INCH OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 URBAN
CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS TIME THE MOISTURE LAYER APPEARS
DEEPER AND WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE TRANSPORT WINDS SLOW STORM MOTIONS
WOULD CONCEIVABLY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH QPF
FIELDS DO NOT INDICATE ANYTHING LIKE THAT HAPPENING APPARENTLY DUE
TO A LACK OF CAPE AND SOME KIND OF FORCING MECHANISM SUCH AS A
FRONTAL BNDRY OR DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE CAPES IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...AND ON THE NAM AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG...AND
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/SHEAR ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. ITS MORE
LIKELY HERE THAT A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL
AND STG GUSTY WINDS WILL FORM AND TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
DIVIDE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS ON SUN. THE SRN
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH PARK IS ANOTHER AREA WHERE THERE`S
AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THIS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE SELY FLOW. ACTUALLY THERE`S A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL IN PARK COUNTY WITH THIS SET UP.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL NOW SHOW A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWRD ACRS THE STATE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
COLLAPSING AS IT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WAVE IS FCST TO REACH THE
FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ITS PASSAGE
COULD ENHANCE OR EXTEND SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HRS. NOT SURE THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MODEST QG LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORE CLOUD COVER AND
A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. MOST MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE EXITING THE STATE BY EVENING
WITH DRYING AND STABILIZATION IN ITS WAKE AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY WITH ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT RELEGATED TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. ON WEDNESDAY... TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM BOTH SFC AND ALOFT...AND HUMIDITIES LOWER WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HOWEVER STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LATE DAY GUSTY T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

BY THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS PLACING COLORADO UNDER SWLY FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CARRIED NORTH BY THIS FLOW IN TANDEM WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MODELS SHOW SWINGING OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS
REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS A RESULT COULD SEE A MODEST INCREASE IN T-
STORM CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE THURSDAY TEMPS
LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1013 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL AIRPORTS. A MID LEVEL
BKN DECK WILL FORM WITH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SOME SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY TO
THE SE THEN TRANSITION TO DRAINAGE BY THE EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 310846
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
246 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER WEST AND
NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ALSO SEEP INTO COLORADO WHERE INTEGRATED PW
VALUES HAVE ALREADY INCREASED AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE
PAST 12 HOURS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. STILL THOUGH MID LEVEL
INVERSION AROUND 500MB WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. NAM SEEMS THE MOST BULLISH ON MOISTURE AND STORM
POTENTIAL WHILE THE THE RAP IS THE DRIEST. EXPECT MAJORITY OF
STORMS WILL BE OVER EAST SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME OF THIS
MAY SPILL OUT OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
NOT MUCH HELP UPSTAIRS AS QG FIELDS SHOWING SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE
700MB LAYERS AND NEUTRAL FORCING ALOFT. ISOLATED POPS ON THE
PLAINS WITH HIGHER SCATTERED CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD
SUFFICE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY READINGS.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH LACK OF ANY
UPPER AIR SUPPORT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE IS STILL OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH THE 500MB HIGH OVER SERN NEW MEX. AT THE SFC...
BROAD CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AROUND A STG HIGH IN NWRN ARKANSAS
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. MEANWHILE THE MID-LEVEL
NWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DRY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN 80-90KT JET
SEGMENT. BY LATE AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW A NEARLY NEUTRAL TILT UPPER
RIDGE MIGRATING EASTWARD OVER ERN UTAH/COLORADO CAUSING THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA TO BECOME N-NWLY. AT THE SAME TIME
SELY BNDRY LAYER FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE FCST AREA. MODELS SHOW MEAN LAYER PW
VALUES PUSHING AN INCH ACRS SERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY EVENING.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...CAPPED BY A MUCH
DRIER N-NWLY FLOW ABOVE 650 MBS. OVERNIGHT SELY SFC WINDS ON THE
PLAINS TURN SWLY WHICH FLUSHES OUT SOME OF THE MOISTURE UP ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE.

DRY OUT IS SHORT-LIVED AS THE GFS...SREF AND NAM SHOW A RETURN TO A
MOIST SELY FLOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW MEAN LAYER PW
VALUES APPROACH 1.25 INCH OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 URBAN
CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS TIME THE MOISTURE LAYER APPEARS
DEEPER AND WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE TRANSPORT WINDS SLOW STORM MOTIONS
WOULD CONCEIVABLY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH QPF
FIELDS DO NOT INDICATE ANYTHING LIKE THAT HAPPENING APPARENTLY DUE
TO A LACK OF CAPE AND SOME KIND OF FORCING MECHANISM SUCH AS A
FRONTAL BNDRY OR DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE CAPES IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...AND ON THE NAM AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG...AND
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/SHEAR ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. ITS MORE
LIKELY HERE THAT A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL
AND STG GUSTY WINDS WILL FORM AND TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
DIVIDE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS ON SUN. THE SRN
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH PARK IS ANOTHER AREA WHERE THERE`S
AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THIS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE SELY FLOW. ACTUALLY THERE`S A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL IN PARK COUNTY WITH THIS SET UP.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL NOW SHOW A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWRD ACRS THE STATE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
COLLAPSING AS IT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WAVE IS FCST TO REACH THE
FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ITS PASSAGE
COULD ENHANCE OR EXTEND SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HRS. NOT SURE THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MODEST QG LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORE CLOUD COVER AND
A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. MOST MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE EXITING THE STATE BY EVENING
WITH DRYING AND STABILIZATION IN ITS WAKE AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY WITH ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT RELEGATED TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. ON WEDNESDAY... TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM BOTH SFC AND ALOFT...AND HUMIDITIES LOWER WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HOWEVER STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LATE DAY GUSTY T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

BY THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS PLACING COLORADO UNDER SWLY FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CARRIED NORTH BY THIS FLOW IN TANDEM WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MODELS SHOW SWINGING OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS
REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS A RESULT COULD SEE A MODEST INCREASE IN T-
STORM CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE THURSDAY TEMPS
LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE TROF OVER DENVER WITH HEALTHY S-SW WINDS OVER DEN/APA AND
NW WINDS AT BJC. WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST OVER ENTIRE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LEVELS A BIT HIGHER TODAY AND EXPECT
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AREAL
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR NOW. EXPECT
BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHOWERS IN THE
AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 310846
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
246 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER WEST AND
NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ALSO SEEP INTO COLORADO WHERE INTEGRATED PW
VALUES HAVE ALREADY INCREASED AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE
PAST 12 HOURS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. STILL THOUGH MID LEVEL
INVERSION AROUND 500MB WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. NAM SEEMS THE MOST BULLISH ON MOISTURE AND STORM
POTENTIAL WHILE THE THE RAP IS THE DRIEST. EXPECT MAJORITY OF
STORMS WILL BE OVER EAST SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME OF THIS
MAY SPILL OUT OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
NOT MUCH HELP UPSTAIRS AS QG FIELDS SHOWING SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE
700MB LAYERS AND NEUTRAL FORCING ALOFT. ISOLATED POPS ON THE
PLAINS WITH HIGHER SCATTERED CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD
SUFFICE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY READINGS.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH LACK OF ANY
UPPER AIR SUPPORT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE IS STILL OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH THE 500MB HIGH OVER SERN NEW MEX. AT THE SFC...
BROAD CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AROUND A STG HIGH IN NWRN ARKANSAS
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. MEANWHILE THE MID-LEVEL
NWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DRY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN 80-90KT JET
SEGMENT. BY LATE AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW A NEARLY NEUTRAL TILT UPPER
RIDGE MIGRATING EASTWARD OVER ERN UTAH/COLORADO CAUSING THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA TO BECOME N-NWLY. AT THE SAME TIME
SELY BNDRY LAYER FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE FCST AREA. MODELS SHOW MEAN LAYER PW
VALUES PUSHING AN INCH ACRS SERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY EVENING.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...CAPPED BY A MUCH
DRIER N-NWLY FLOW ABOVE 650 MBS. OVERNIGHT SELY SFC WINDS ON THE
PLAINS TURN SWLY WHICH FLUSHES OUT SOME OF THE MOISTURE UP ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE.

DRY OUT IS SHORT-LIVED AS THE GFS...SREF AND NAM SHOW A RETURN TO A
MOIST SELY FLOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW MEAN LAYER PW
VALUES APPROACH 1.25 INCH OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 URBAN
CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS TIME THE MOISTURE LAYER APPEARS
DEEPER AND WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE TRANSPORT WINDS SLOW STORM MOTIONS
WOULD CONCEIVABLY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH QPF
FIELDS DO NOT INDICATE ANYTHING LIKE THAT HAPPENING APPARENTLY DUE
TO A LACK OF CAPE AND SOME KIND OF FORCING MECHANISM SUCH AS A
FRONTAL BNDRY OR DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE CAPES IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...AND ON THE NAM AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG...AND
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/SHEAR ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. ITS MORE
LIKELY HERE THAT A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL
AND STG GUSTY WINDS WILL FORM AND TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
DIVIDE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS ON SUN. THE SRN
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH PARK IS ANOTHER AREA WHERE THERE`S
AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THIS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE SELY FLOW. ACTUALLY THERE`S A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL IN PARK COUNTY WITH THIS SET UP.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL NOW SHOW A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWRD ACRS THE STATE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
COLLAPSING AS IT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WAVE IS FCST TO REACH THE
FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ITS PASSAGE
COULD ENHANCE OR EXTEND SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HRS. NOT SURE THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MODEST QG LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORE CLOUD COVER AND
A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. MOST MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE EXITING THE STATE BY EVENING
WITH DRYING AND STABILIZATION IN ITS WAKE AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY WITH ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT RELEGATED TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. ON WEDNESDAY... TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM BOTH SFC AND ALOFT...AND HUMIDITIES LOWER WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HOWEVER STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LATE DAY GUSTY T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

BY THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS PLACING COLORADO UNDER SWLY FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CARRIED NORTH BY THIS FLOW IN TANDEM WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MODELS SHOW SWINGING OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS
REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS A RESULT COULD SEE A MODEST INCREASE IN T-
STORM CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE THURSDAY TEMPS
LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE TROF OVER DENVER WITH HEALTHY S-SW WINDS OVER DEN/APA AND
NW WINDS AT BJC. WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST OVER ENTIRE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LEVELS A BIT HIGHER TODAY AND EXPECT
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AREAL
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR NOW. EXPECT
BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHOWERS IN THE
AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




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