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000
FXUS65 KBOU 012100
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH SURFACE FRONT HAS MOVED OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE SWITCHING WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO WNW
BRINGING COOLER AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DECREASING WET BULB ZEROS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HAVE
BROUGHT SNOW DOWN TO 8000-8500 FT. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OVERNIGHT OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WHERE
YOU HAVE DECENT QG VV AND UPSLOPE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL END AT MIDNIGHT WHEN THE SNOW TAPERS OFF.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SURGE OF
COOLER AIR FROM A DISORGANIZED FRONT THAT WILL DROP DOWN INTO
COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS DECENT LIFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LAPSE RATES OVER DENVER OF 8.6 C/KM BUT DUE TO LACK OF
MUCH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY LITTLE CAPE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS WITH WIND SPEEDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OVER THE PLAINS AND
40 MPH OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ABOVE TIMBERLINE. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND VALLEYS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING
BY MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

INITIALLY...A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A
STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT MARCHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE FROM 00Z THROUGH 12Z...BUT BOTH MODELS ALSO LIMIT ANY
AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC DIAGNOSTICS SHOW ONLY A FEW HOURS OF
RISING VERTICAL MOTIONS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THEN
ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE. WILL MENTION ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING...IN CASE A
LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS IN WYOMING. THE COOL AIR MOVING INTO THE
STATE WILL LINGER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY COULD BE NEARING THE FREEZING MARK. AT
THIS TIME...ONLY THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER
THAN 32. AFTER FRIDAY MORNING...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
BUILDING OVER COLORADO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
DRY AND MILD WILL BE THE PRIMARY MESSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL STEADILY START TO MOVE IN AS THE FRONT
MAKES IT WAY EASTWARD OFF THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER
WATCH FOR WINDS TO BECOME VARIABLE AND STRONGER WITH GUSTING UP TO
20 MPH AND RAIN STARTING BETWEEN 20 AND 21Z. WITH THIS SECONDARY
PUSH OF COOLER AIR AND MOISTURE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL DECREASE STARTING AROUND 21Z
TO BELOW 5000 FT AGL THEN BELOW 3000 BY 00Z. CONDITIONS SHOW
IMPROVEMENT AFTER 04Z WITH SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING IN LOW LYING
AREAS THEN SCATTERING OUT BY 16Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ031-
033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 012100
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH SURFACE FRONT HAS MOVED OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE SWITCHING WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO WNW
BRINGING COOLER AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DECREASING WET BULB ZEROS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HAVE
BROUGHT SNOW DOWN TO 8000-8500 FT. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OVERNIGHT OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WHERE
YOU HAVE DECENT QG VV AND UPSLOPE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL END AT MIDNIGHT WHEN THE SNOW TAPERS OFF.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SURGE OF
COOLER AIR FROM A DISORGANIZED FRONT THAT WILL DROP DOWN INTO
COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS DECENT LIFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LAPSE RATES OVER DENVER OF 8.6 C/KM BUT DUE TO LACK OF
MUCH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY LITTLE CAPE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS WITH WIND SPEEDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OVER THE PLAINS AND
40 MPH OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ABOVE TIMBERLINE. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND VALLEYS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING
BY MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

INITIALLY...A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A
STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT MARCHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE FROM 00Z THROUGH 12Z...BUT BOTH MODELS ALSO LIMIT ANY
AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC DIAGNOSTICS SHOW ONLY A FEW HOURS OF
RISING VERTICAL MOTIONS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THEN
ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE. WILL MENTION ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING...IN CASE A
LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS IN WYOMING. THE COOL AIR MOVING INTO THE
STATE WILL LINGER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY COULD BE NEARING THE FREEZING MARK. AT
THIS TIME...ONLY THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER
THAN 32. AFTER FRIDAY MORNING...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
BUILDING OVER COLORADO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
DRY AND MILD WILL BE THE PRIMARY MESSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL STEADILY START TO MOVE IN AS THE FRONT
MAKES IT WAY EASTWARD OFF THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER
WATCH FOR WINDS TO BECOME VARIABLE AND STRONGER WITH GUSTING UP TO
20 MPH AND RAIN STARTING BETWEEN 20 AND 21Z. WITH THIS SECONDARY
PUSH OF COOLER AIR AND MOISTURE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL DECREASE STARTING AROUND 21Z
TO BELOW 5000 FT AGL THEN BELOW 3000 BY 00Z. CONDITIONS SHOW
IMPROVEMENT AFTER 04Z WITH SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING IN LOW LYING
AREAS THEN SCATTERING OUT BY 16Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ031-
033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 011545
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
945 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE FRONT MOVING
WESTERLY THROUGH THE REGION. SNOW IS CURRENTLY DOWN TO ABOUT
10,600 FT WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION
BRINGING THE REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN SLOPE
AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS. UPDATED SKY...POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FALLING HEIGHTS OVER UTAH AT THE PRESENT TIME ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE OF A 100+ KT JET AND IN VICINITY OF A SFC COLD FRONT. BOTH
ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST ACRS COLORADO TODAY. TEMPERATURES ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW LEVELS AT
OR JUST ABOVE TIMBERLINE EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE MILD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WAVE TURNS WESTERLY SOMETIME
AROUND MIDDAY...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW LEVEL LOWER. LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
SNOW MODEL USING QG VV...TEMP...RH...WIND AND LAPSE RATE INPUT
FROM THE RUC...NAM AND GFS INDICATE STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 4-7 INCHES ABOVE 10K FT...WITH
LESSER AMTS DOWN TO AROUND 8500 FEET. LAPSE RATES STEEP ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED T-STORMS BOTH IN THE MTNS AND ON THE PLAINS
TODAY. COULD SEE BURSTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH THIS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 FOR THE PD 12 PM MDT TODAY TO 12
AM MDT TONIGHT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA...SHOULD SEE QUICK
DROP OFF IN HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALL NOT TOO LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MID-LEVEL DRYING MOVING OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...MODELS SHOW A WEAK RATHER DISORGANIZED COLD
FRONT SIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NERN COLORADO PLAINS MID TO LATE
MORNING...CAUSING A SHIFT TO NELY SFC WINDS. A SECOND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS PROGGED TO BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...COOLER AIR AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS WITH
RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15 TO 0.50 POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOW ON THE PLAINS. HOWEVER
HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND UP ALONG THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP
SHUTS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXCEPT FOR LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA AND OVER THE HIGHER WINDWARD
MTN SLOPES...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING BEFORE MORNING WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING OVER THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG WEST COAST...ONE LAST
UPPER WAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG 120KT JET WHICH WILL NOSE INTO
FAR NE COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD. MAIN CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDERS WITH WYOMING AND NEBRASKA.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND HAVE LOWERED
FRI MORNING LOWS AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS. COULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FRI AM FOR FREEZE/FROST POTENTIAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S.
MAY NEED HILITES SINCE A PORTION OF LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE NOT HAD
A HARD FREEZE YET.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLORADO WILL BE UNDER
A DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY FEW CHANGES TO OUT
PERIODS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 934 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

KEPT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN TAFS A BIT LONGER BEFORE THE SWITCH TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 18Z. KEPT CEILINGS IN BUT SHOULD START TO
SEE A BREAK AT ABOUT 16Z AS THE WIND STARTS TO SWITCH AND THE NEXT
FEATURE MOVES IN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ031-
033-034.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 011545
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
945 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE FRONT MOVING
WESTERLY THROUGH THE REGION. SNOW IS CURRENTLY DOWN TO ABOUT
10,600 FT WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION
BRINGING THE REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN SLOPE
AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS. UPDATED SKY...POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FALLING HEIGHTS OVER UTAH AT THE PRESENT TIME ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE OF A 100+ KT JET AND IN VICINITY OF A SFC COLD FRONT. BOTH
ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST ACRS COLORADO TODAY. TEMPERATURES ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW LEVELS AT
OR JUST ABOVE TIMBERLINE EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE MILD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WAVE TURNS WESTERLY SOMETIME
AROUND MIDDAY...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW LEVEL LOWER. LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
SNOW MODEL USING QG VV...TEMP...RH...WIND AND LAPSE RATE INPUT
FROM THE RUC...NAM AND GFS INDICATE STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 4-7 INCHES ABOVE 10K FT...WITH
LESSER AMTS DOWN TO AROUND 8500 FEET. LAPSE RATES STEEP ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED T-STORMS BOTH IN THE MTNS AND ON THE PLAINS
TODAY. COULD SEE BURSTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH THIS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 FOR THE PD 12 PM MDT TODAY TO 12
AM MDT TONIGHT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA...SHOULD SEE QUICK
DROP OFF IN HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALL NOT TOO LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MID-LEVEL DRYING MOVING OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...MODELS SHOW A WEAK RATHER DISORGANIZED COLD
FRONT SIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NERN COLORADO PLAINS MID TO LATE
MORNING...CAUSING A SHIFT TO NELY SFC WINDS. A SECOND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS PROGGED TO BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...COOLER AIR AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS WITH
RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15 TO 0.50 POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOW ON THE PLAINS. HOWEVER
HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND UP ALONG THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP
SHUTS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXCEPT FOR LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA AND OVER THE HIGHER WINDWARD
MTN SLOPES...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING BEFORE MORNING WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING OVER THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG WEST COAST...ONE LAST
UPPER WAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG 120KT JET WHICH WILL NOSE INTO
FAR NE COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD. MAIN CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDERS WITH WYOMING AND NEBRASKA.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND HAVE LOWERED
FRI MORNING LOWS AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS. COULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FRI AM FOR FREEZE/FROST POTENTIAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S.
MAY NEED HILITES SINCE A PORTION OF LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE NOT HAD
A HARD FREEZE YET.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLORADO WILL BE UNDER
A DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY FEW CHANGES TO OUT
PERIODS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 934 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

KEPT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN TAFS A BIT LONGER BEFORE THE SWITCH TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 18Z. KEPT CEILINGS IN BUT SHOULD START TO
SEE A BREAK AT ABOUT 16Z AS THE WIND STARTS TO SWITCH AND THE NEXT
FEATURE MOVES IN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ031-
033-034.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 011014
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
414 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FALLING HEIGHTS OVER UTAH AT THE PRESENT TIME ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE OF A 100+ KT JET AND IN VICINITY OF A SFC COLD FRONT. BOTH
ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST ACRS COLORADO TODAY. TEMPERATURES ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW LEVELS AT
OR JUST ABOVE TIMBERLINE EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE MILD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WAVE TURNS WESTERLY SOMETIME
AROUND MIDDAY...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW LEVEL LOWER. LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
SNOW MODEL USING QG VV...TEMP...RH...WIND AND LAPSE RATE INPUT
FROM THE RUC...NAM AND GFS INDICATE STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 4-7 INCHES ABOVE 10K FT...WITH
LESSER AMTS DOWN TO AROUND 8500 FEET. LAPSE RATES STEEP ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED T-STORMS BOTH IN THE MTNS AND ON THE PLAINS
TODAY. COULD SEE BURSTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH THIS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 FOR THE PD 12 PM MDT TODAY TO 12
AM MDT TONIGHT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA...SHOULD SEE QUICK
DROP OFF IN HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALL NOT TOO LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MID-LEVEL DRYING MOVING OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...MODELS SHOW A WEAK RATHER DISORGANIZED COLD
FRONT SIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NERN COLORADO PLAINS MID TO LATE
MORNING...CAUSING A SHIFT TO NELY SFC WINDS. A SECOND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS PROGGED TO BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...COOLER AIR AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS WITH
RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15 TO 0.50 POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOW ON THE PLAINS. HOWEVER
HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND UP ALONG THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP
SHUTS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXCEPT FOR LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA AND OVER THE HIGHER WINDWARD
MTN SLOPES...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING BEFORE MORNING WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING OVER THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG WEST COAST...ONE LAST
UPPER WAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG 120KT JET WHICH WILL NOSE INTO
FAR NE COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD. MAIN CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDERS WITH WYOMING AND NEBRASKA.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND HAVE LOWERED
FRI MORNING LOWS AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS. COULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FRI AM FOR FREEZE/FROST POTENTIAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S.
MAY NEED HILITES SINCE A PORTION OF LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE NOT HAD
A HARD FREEZE YET.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLORADO WILL BE UNDER
A DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY FEW CHANGES TO OUT
PERIODS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

SKIES WILL STEADILY FILL WITH CLOUDS THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT AROUND MID-MORNING. LOOK FOR LIGHT SLY
WINDS TO SHIFT TO AN EAST-NORTHEAST COMPONENT AT 7-12 KTS BY AROUND
15Z. A SECOND PUSH OF COOL...MOIST AIR THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PROBABLY SET OFF THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AND IN THE DENVER AREA. SHOWERS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. CIGS
ARE LIKELY TO LOWER TO BELOW 5000 FT AGL AFTER 22Z TODAY AND
POSSIBLY BELOW 3000 FT AGL WITH A COLD RAINFALL THIS EVENING.
VSBYS MAY ALSO LOWER TO 2-3 MILES AT TIMES WITH THE PCPN.
CONDITIONS SHOULD STEADILY IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER...
STABLE AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF
SHALLOW DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD SKIES CLEAR BEFORE
SUNRISE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN ZONES 31..33>34 FROM 12 PM MDT TODAY TO 12
AM MDT TONIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 011014
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
414 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FALLING HEIGHTS OVER UTAH AT THE PRESENT TIME ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE OF A 100+ KT JET AND IN VICINITY OF A SFC COLD FRONT. BOTH
ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST ACRS COLORADO TODAY. TEMPERATURES ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW LEVELS AT
OR JUST ABOVE TIMBERLINE EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE MILD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WAVE TURNS WESTERLY SOMETIME
AROUND MIDDAY...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW LEVEL LOWER. LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
SNOW MODEL USING QG VV...TEMP...RH...WIND AND LAPSE RATE INPUT
FROM THE RUC...NAM AND GFS INDICATE STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 4-7 INCHES ABOVE 10K FT...WITH
LESSER AMTS DOWN TO AROUND 8500 FEET. LAPSE RATES STEEP ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED T-STORMS BOTH IN THE MTNS AND ON THE PLAINS
TODAY. COULD SEE BURSTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH THIS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 FOR THE PD 12 PM MDT TODAY TO 12
AM MDT TONIGHT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA...SHOULD SEE QUICK
DROP OFF IN HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALL NOT TOO LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MID-LEVEL DRYING MOVING OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...MODELS SHOW A WEAK RATHER DISORGANIZED COLD
FRONT SIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NERN COLORADO PLAINS MID TO LATE
MORNING...CAUSING A SHIFT TO NELY SFC WINDS. A SECOND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS PROGGED TO BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...COOLER AIR AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS WITH
RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15 TO 0.50 POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOW ON THE PLAINS. HOWEVER
HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND UP ALONG THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP
SHUTS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXCEPT FOR LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA AND OVER THE HIGHER WINDWARD
MTN SLOPES...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING BEFORE MORNING WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING OVER THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG WEST COAST...ONE LAST
UPPER WAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG 120KT JET WHICH WILL NOSE INTO
FAR NE COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD. MAIN CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDERS WITH WYOMING AND NEBRASKA.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND HAVE LOWERED
FRI MORNING LOWS AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS. COULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FRI AM FOR FREEZE/FROST POTENTIAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S.
MAY NEED HILITES SINCE A PORTION OF LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE NOT HAD
A HARD FREEZE YET.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLORADO WILL BE UNDER
A DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY FEW CHANGES TO OUT
PERIODS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

SKIES WILL STEADILY FILL WITH CLOUDS THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT AROUND MID-MORNING. LOOK FOR LIGHT SLY
WINDS TO SHIFT TO AN EAST-NORTHEAST COMPONENT AT 7-12 KTS BY AROUND
15Z. A SECOND PUSH OF COOL...MOIST AIR THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PROBABLY SET OFF THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AND IN THE DENVER AREA. SHOWERS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. CIGS
ARE LIKELY TO LOWER TO BELOW 5000 FT AGL AFTER 22Z TODAY AND
POSSIBLY BELOW 3000 FT AGL WITH A COLD RAINFALL THIS EVENING.
VSBYS MAY ALSO LOWER TO 2-3 MILES AT TIMES WITH THE PCPN.
CONDITIONS SHOULD STEADILY IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER...
STABLE AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF
SHALLOW DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD SKIES CLEAR BEFORE
SUNRISE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN ZONES 31..33>34 FROM 12 PM MDT TODAY TO 12
AM MDT TONIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 010306
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
906 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN CO AT THIS TIME. SOME
LIGHTNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NERN
PLAINS. THIS ALL CONSISTENT WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST SO ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED FOR THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A RATHER DISTINCT SHORT WAVE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL COLORADO AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE AIRMASS IS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...IT WILL PRODUCE MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY AS WELL BRING A LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS ON THE
PLAINS TONIGHT. HIGHEST MOUNTAINS MAY SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED ABOVE 10500 FEET. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT WITH ONLY 15-20 KTS MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT ENOUGH FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING Q-G
VERTICAL MOTION WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA. Q-G INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY AND AIRMASS EVENTUALLY SATURATES IN MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT...ANY LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER
EFFICIENT AND PRODUCING PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH PLAINS WILL HAVE
TO SATURATE THE LOWER LAYERS BEFORE PRECIPITATION. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP THAT PROCESS WITH
WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT. INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH COUNTRY SNOW
MAINLY ABOVE 10500 FEET DURING THE DAY WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY
WITH 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE BEFORE DARK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW QG LIFT WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEING
REPLACED BY QG DECENT BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE ABOVE 6500
KFT...WITH ANOTHER TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 9500
FEET. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS...ADJACENT PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE BY LATE
EVENING....WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON
THURSDAY...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER COLORADO.
THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN AT BELOW NORMAL VALUES AS COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
NUDGE TOWARD COLORADO BEGINNING ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER COLORADO WEAKENING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 20W14

WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO DRAINAGE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH BASED SHOWERS SHIFTING TO THE EAST WITH FRONT TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF DENVER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...COOPER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 010306
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
906 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN CO AT THIS TIME. SOME
LIGHTNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NERN
PLAINS. THIS ALL CONSISTENT WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST SO ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED FOR THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A RATHER DISTINCT SHORT WAVE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL COLORADO AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE AIRMASS IS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...IT WILL PRODUCE MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY AS WELL BRING A LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS ON THE
PLAINS TONIGHT. HIGHEST MOUNTAINS MAY SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED ABOVE 10500 FEET. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT WITH ONLY 15-20 KTS MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT ENOUGH FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING Q-G
VERTICAL MOTION WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA. Q-G INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY AND AIRMASS EVENTUALLY SATURATES IN MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT...ANY LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER
EFFICIENT AND PRODUCING PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH PLAINS WILL HAVE
TO SATURATE THE LOWER LAYERS BEFORE PRECIPITATION. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP THAT PROCESS WITH
WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT. INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH COUNTRY SNOW
MAINLY ABOVE 10500 FEET DURING THE DAY WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY
WITH 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE BEFORE DARK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW QG LIFT WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEING
REPLACED BY QG DECENT BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE ABOVE 6500
KFT...WITH ANOTHER TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 9500
FEET. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS...ADJACENT PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE BY LATE
EVENING....WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON
THURSDAY...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER COLORADO.
THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN AT BELOW NORMAL VALUES AS COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
NUDGE TOWARD COLORADO BEGINNING ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER COLORADO WEAKENING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 20W14

WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO DRAINAGE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH BASED SHOWERS SHIFTING TO THE EAST WITH FRONT TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF DENVER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 302111
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
311 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A RATHER DISTINCT SHORT WAVE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL COLORADO AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE AIRMASS IS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...IT WILL PRODUCE MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY AS WELL BRING A LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS ON THE
PLAINS TONIGHT. HIGHEST MOUNTAINS MAY SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED ABOVE 10500 FEET. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT WITH ONLY 15-20 KTS MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT ENOUGH FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING Q-G
VERTICAL MOTION WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA. Q-G INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY AND AIRMASS EVENTUALLY SATURATES IN MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT...ANY LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER
EFFICIENT AND PRODUCING PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH PLAINS WILL HAVE
TO SATURATE THE LOWER LAYERS BEFORE PRECIPITATION. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP THAT PROCESS WITH
WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT. INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH COUNTRY SNOW
MAINLY ABOVE 10500 FEET DURING THE DAY WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY
WITH 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE BEFORE DARK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW QG LIFT WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEING
REPLACED BY QG DECENT BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE ABOVE 6500
KFT...WITH ANOTHER TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 9500
FEET. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS...ADJACENT PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE BY LATE
EVENING....WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON
THURSDAY...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER COLORADO.
THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN AT BELOW NORMAL VALUES AS COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
NUDGE TOWARD COLORADO BEGINNING ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER COLORADO WEAKENING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 7000 AND 10000 FT AGL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS ABOUT 20 PERCENT AND NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE LIGHT SHOWERS. ON
MONDAY...SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK AROUND 10000 FEET IN THE MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO LOWERING CEILINGS BY AFTERNOON. ILS CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 20Z-22Z WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...LOWERING CEILINGS AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WINDS TONIGHT
WILL SETTLE TO LIGHT DRAINAGE...THEN TURN NORTHERLY WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED BY 20Z-21Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE OF A PREFRONTAL WIND
SHIFT EARLIER IN THE DAY AROUND 15Z-17Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 302111
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
311 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A RATHER DISTINCT SHORT WAVE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL COLORADO AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE AIRMASS IS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...IT WILL PRODUCE MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY AS WELL BRING A LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS ON THE
PLAINS TONIGHT. HIGHEST MOUNTAINS MAY SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED ABOVE 10500 FEET. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT WITH ONLY 15-20 KTS MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT ENOUGH FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING Q-G
VERTICAL MOTION WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA. Q-G INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY AND AIRMASS EVENTUALLY SATURATES IN MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT...ANY LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER
EFFICIENT AND PRODUCING PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH PLAINS WILL HAVE
TO SATURATE THE LOWER LAYERS BEFORE PRECIPITATION. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP THAT PROCESS WITH
WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT. INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH COUNTRY SNOW
MAINLY ABOVE 10500 FEET DURING THE DAY WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY
WITH 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE BEFORE DARK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW QG LIFT WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEING
REPLACED BY QG DECENT BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE ABOVE 6500
KFT...WITH ANOTHER TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 9500
FEET. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS...ADJACENT PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE BY LATE
EVENING....WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON
THURSDAY...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER COLORADO.
THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN AT BELOW NORMAL VALUES AS COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
NUDGE TOWARD COLORADO BEGINNING ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER COLORADO WEAKENING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 7000 AND 10000 FT AGL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS ABOUT 20 PERCENT AND NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE LIGHT SHOWERS. ON
MONDAY...SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK AROUND 10000 FEET IN THE MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO LOWERING CEILINGS BY AFTERNOON. ILS CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 20Z-22Z WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...LOWERING CEILINGS AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WINDS TONIGHT
WILL SETTLE TO LIGHT DRAINAGE...THEN TURN NORTHERLY WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED BY 20Z-21Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE OF A PREFRONTAL WIND
SHIFT EARLIER IN THE DAY AROUND 15Z-17Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS65 KBOU 301658
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1058 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH GUSTY WINDS IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN BORDER AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THOSE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ABOVE TIMBERLINE WITH 30 TO 40
MPH GUSTS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. HOWEVER...THEY WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AS CROSS MOUNTAIN
COMPONENT EASES. MEANWHILE...WITH INCREASED MIXING WE DO EXPECT
CHANNELS OF WESTERLY WINDS TO SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME SOME LOCATIONS COULD REMAIN EASTERLY IN THIS CURRENT WEATHER
SCENARIO SINCE STRONGEST DOWNWARD FORCING IS PUSHING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD SOME LOW POPS ON THE PLAINS BY THIS EVENING
AS LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT OF CAPE AND ENOUGH HEATING
TODAY TO SUFFICIENTLY MIX OUT STABLE LAYER. IN ADDITION...THE WEAK
WAVE MOVING ACROSS UTAH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT COOLING TO ALLOW A
FEW SHOWERS TO SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR OROGRAPHICS COMBINING WITH WEAK LIFT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

DEEP UPPER AIR CYCLONE CENTERED OVER EXTREME NWRN NEBRASKA AT
THIS HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACRS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND THEN UP OVER MANITOBA LATER TODAY.
STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS DEPARTING LOW
PRES SYSTEM WAS NOW OVER COLORADO. NAM AND RAP QG VERT VELOCITY
FIELDS AND ON H2O VAPOR SAT IMAGERY NICELY REVEAL THIS SINKING.
STABILIZATION OF THE MTN TOP LAYER PAST FEW HOURS HAS PRODUCE A
STANDING MTN WAVE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...RESULTING IN GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE. NAM
AND RAP CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE CROSS BARRIER WINDS IN THE
45-55KT RANGE BY AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...THEN ONLY SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AT 15Z. WIND SENSORS ATOP THE HIGH RIDGES WERE ALREADY
INDICATING GUSTS IN THE 45-55 MPH RANGE. COULD SEE SOME OF THIS
MOMENTUM SPREADING TO LOWER EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DO NOT SEE WINDS REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. FURTHERMORE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL SPREAD OUT ONTO THE NEARBY THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA COULD SEE W-NWLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOMENTUM MIXING DOWN
FROM ALOFT.

CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS LATER TODAY. CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALSO
RETURN TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE RACING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. QG VV REVERSE
AND GO POSITIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE AND
ENERGY NEARS. COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS BY MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL
WILL HOOVER AROUND 11 THSND FT TODAY...AND DROP TO AROUND 9500 FT
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
BY EVENING SKIES SHOULD ALSO FILL WITH CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS AS
THIS WEAK PERTABATION PASSES BY...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
WITH ITS DEPARTURE. PCPN IS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU 12Z/WED EAST OF
THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. QG FIELDS SHOWING INCREASING ASCENT
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...PEAKING OVER THE FRONT RANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND FURTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON TIMING WITH THIS TROF. GIVEN
THE FRONT AND FORCING ALOFT WILL BUMP POPS UP FURTHER TO LIKELY
OVER MOST SECTIONS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
TROF IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE SO SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIP DURATION WILL BE IN THE 3-6
HOUR RANGE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
AS COLORADO WILL BE UNDER A MODERATE...NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIND DIRECTION FORECAST WILL BE A CHALLENGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH POTENTIAL FOR CHANNELS OF WESTERLY WINDS TO MOVE OFF THE
FOOTHILLS. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL
EASTERLIES THAT THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BATTLING THROUGH 00Z.
WEST WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 18 KTS WHILE ANY EASTERLIES WILL
BE LIGHTER AROUND 5-10 KTS. AFTER 00Z...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO NORMAL DIURNAL SOUTH/SOUTHEWESTERLIES NEAR 10 KTS.
LOW CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER 00Z-05Z BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
HIGH ENOUGH FOR VISUAL LANDING CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 301658
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1058 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH GUSTY WINDS IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN BORDER AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THOSE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ABOVE TIMBERLINE WITH 30 TO 40
MPH GUSTS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. HOWEVER...THEY WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AS CROSS MOUNTAIN
COMPONENT EASES. MEANWHILE...WITH INCREASED MIXING WE DO EXPECT
CHANNELS OF WESTERLY WINDS TO SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME SOME LOCATIONS COULD REMAIN EASTERLY IN THIS CURRENT WEATHER
SCENARIO SINCE STRONGEST DOWNWARD FORCING IS PUSHING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD SOME LOW POPS ON THE PLAINS BY THIS EVENING
AS LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT OF CAPE AND ENOUGH HEATING
TODAY TO SUFFICIENTLY MIX OUT STABLE LAYER. IN ADDITION...THE WEAK
WAVE MOVING ACROSS UTAH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT COOLING TO ALLOW A
FEW SHOWERS TO SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR OROGRAPHICS COMBINING WITH WEAK LIFT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

DEEP UPPER AIR CYCLONE CENTERED OVER EXTREME NWRN NEBRASKA AT
THIS HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACRS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND THEN UP OVER MANITOBA LATER TODAY.
STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS DEPARTING LOW
PRES SYSTEM WAS NOW OVER COLORADO. NAM AND RAP QG VERT VELOCITY
FIELDS AND ON H2O VAPOR SAT IMAGERY NICELY REVEAL THIS SINKING.
STABILIZATION OF THE MTN TOP LAYER PAST FEW HOURS HAS PRODUCE A
STANDING MTN WAVE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...RESULTING IN GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE. NAM
AND RAP CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE CROSS BARRIER WINDS IN THE
45-55KT RANGE BY AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...THEN ONLY SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AT 15Z. WIND SENSORS ATOP THE HIGH RIDGES WERE ALREADY
INDICATING GUSTS IN THE 45-55 MPH RANGE. COULD SEE SOME OF THIS
MOMENTUM SPREADING TO LOWER EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DO NOT SEE WINDS REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. FURTHERMORE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL SPREAD OUT ONTO THE NEARBY THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA COULD SEE W-NWLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOMENTUM MIXING DOWN
FROM ALOFT.

CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS LATER TODAY. CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALSO
RETURN TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE RACING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. QG VV REVERSE
AND GO POSITIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE AND
ENERGY NEARS. COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS BY MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL
WILL HOOVER AROUND 11 THSND FT TODAY...AND DROP TO AROUND 9500 FT
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
BY EVENING SKIES SHOULD ALSO FILL WITH CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS AS
THIS WEAK PERTABATION PASSES BY...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
WITH ITS DEPARTURE. PCPN IS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU 12Z/WED EAST OF
THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. QG FIELDS SHOWING INCREASING ASCENT
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...PEAKING OVER THE FRONT RANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND FURTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON TIMING WITH THIS TROF. GIVEN
THE FRONT AND FORCING ALOFT WILL BUMP POPS UP FURTHER TO LIKELY
OVER MOST SECTIONS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
TROF IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE SO SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIP DURATION WILL BE IN THE 3-6
HOUR RANGE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
AS COLORADO WILL BE UNDER A MODERATE...NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIND DIRECTION FORECAST WILL BE A CHALLENGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH POTENTIAL FOR CHANNELS OF WESTERLY WINDS TO MOVE OFF THE
FOOTHILLS. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL
EASTERLIES THAT THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BATTLING THROUGH 00Z.
WEST WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 18 KTS WHILE ANY EASTERLIES WILL
BE LIGHTER AROUND 5-10 KTS. AFTER 00Z...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO NORMAL DIURNAL SOUTH/SOUTHEWESTERLIES NEAR 10 KTS.
LOW CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER 00Z-05Z BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
HIGH ENOUGH FOR VISUAL LANDING CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS65 KBOU 301005
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

DEEP UPPER AIR CYCLONE CENTERED OVER EXTREME NWRN NEBRASKA AT
THIS HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACRS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND THEN UP OVER MANITOBA LATER TODAY.
STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS DEPARTING LOW
PRES SYSTEM WAS NOW OVER COLORADO. NAM AND RAP QG VERT VELOCITY
FIELDS AND ON H2O VAPOR SAT IMAGERY NICELY REVEAL THIS SINKING.
STABILIZATION OF THE MTN TOP LAYER PAST FEW HOURS HAS PRODUCE A
STANDING MTN WAVE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...RESULTING IN GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE. NAM
AND RAP CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE CROSS BARRIER WINDS IN THE
45-55KT RANGE BY AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...THEN ONLY SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AT 15Z. WIND SENSORS ATOP THE HIGH RIDGES WERE ALREADY
INDICATING GUSTS IN THE 45-55 MPH RANGE. COULD SEE SOME OF THIS
MOMENTUM SPREADING TO LOWER EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DO NOT SEE WINDS REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. FURTHERMORE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL SPREAD OUT ONTO THE NEARBY THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA COULD SEE W-NWLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOMENTUM MIXING DOWN
FROM ALOFT.

CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS LATER TODAY. CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALSO
RETURN TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE RACING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. QG VV REVERSE
AND GO POSITIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE AND
ENERGY NEARS. COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS BY MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL
WILL HOOVER AROUND 11 THSND FT TODAY...AND DROP TO AROUND 9500 FT
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
BY EVENING SKIES SHOULD ALSO FILL WITH CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS AS
THIS WEAK PERTABATION PASSES BY...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
WITH ITS DEPARTURE. PCPN IS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU 12Z/WED EAST OF
THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. QG FIELDS SHOWING INCREASING ASCENT
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...PEAKING OVER THE FRONT RANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND FURTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON TIMING WITH THIS TROF. GIVEN
THE FRONT AND FORCING ALOFT WILL BUMP POPS UP FURTHER TO LIKELY
OVER MOST SECTIONS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
TROF IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE SO SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIP DURATION WILL BE IN THE 3-6
HOUR RANGE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
AS COLORADO WILL BE UNDER A MODERATE...NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT DENVER AREA TERMINAL AND GATES
THROUGH 12Z/WED. ALTHOUGH CEILINGS MAY LOWER BELOW 10 THSND FT
AGL AFTER 22Z TODAY AND POSSIBLY LOWER TO AROUND 8 THSND FT AGL
EARLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE PASSES BY. AT
THIS TIME...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT
DRAINAGE WINDS OF 5-12KTS AT DIA AND APA THROUGH MID-
MORNING...THEN A GRADUAL CLOCKWISE SHIFT TO WLY WINDS OF 7-14KTS
BY MIDDAY WHERE THEY SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE RESUMING A TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN. ON THE OTHER HAND
...WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-25KT CAN BE EXPECTED AT BJC NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN 7-13 NWLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN S-SWLY WINDS OF 4-8KTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 301005
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

DEEP UPPER AIR CYCLONE CENTERED OVER EXTREME NWRN NEBRASKA AT
THIS HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACRS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND THEN UP OVER MANITOBA LATER TODAY.
STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS DEPARTING LOW
PRES SYSTEM WAS NOW OVER COLORADO. NAM AND RAP QG VERT VELOCITY
FIELDS AND ON H2O VAPOR SAT IMAGERY NICELY REVEAL THIS SINKING.
STABILIZATION OF THE MTN TOP LAYER PAST FEW HOURS HAS PRODUCE A
STANDING MTN WAVE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...RESULTING IN GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE. NAM
AND RAP CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE CROSS BARRIER WINDS IN THE
45-55KT RANGE BY AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...THEN ONLY SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AT 15Z. WIND SENSORS ATOP THE HIGH RIDGES WERE ALREADY
INDICATING GUSTS IN THE 45-55 MPH RANGE. COULD SEE SOME OF THIS
MOMENTUM SPREADING TO LOWER EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DO NOT SEE WINDS REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. FURTHERMORE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL SPREAD OUT ONTO THE NEARBY THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA COULD SEE W-NWLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOMENTUM MIXING DOWN
FROM ALOFT.

CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS LATER TODAY. CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALSO
RETURN TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE RACING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. QG VV REVERSE
AND GO POSITIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE AND
ENERGY NEARS. COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS BY MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL
WILL HOOVER AROUND 11 THSND FT TODAY...AND DROP TO AROUND 9500 FT
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
BY EVENING SKIES SHOULD ALSO FILL WITH CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS AS
THIS WEAK PERTABATION PASSES BY...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
WITH ITS DEPARTURE. PCPN IS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU 12Z/WED EAST OF
THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. QG FIELDS SHOWING INCREASING ASCENT
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...PEAKING OVER THE FRONT RANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND FURTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON TIMING WITH THIS TROF. GIVEN
THE FRONT AND FORCING ALOFT WILL BUMP POPS UP FURTHER TO LIKELY
OVER MOST SECTIONS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
TROF IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE SO SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIP DURATION WILL BE IN THE 3-6
HOUR RANGE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
AS COLORADO WILL BE UNDER A MODERATE...NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT DENVER AREA TERMINAL AND GATES
THROUGH 12Z/WED. ALTHOUGH CEILINGS MAY LOWER BELOW 10 THSND FT
AGL AFTER 22Z TODAY AND POSSIBLY LOWER TO AROUND 8 THSND FT AGL
EARLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE PASSES BY. AT
THIS TIME...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT
DRAINAGE WINDS OF 5-12KTS AT DIA AND APA THROUGH MID-
MORNING...THEN A GRADUAL CLOCKWISE SHIFT TO WLY WINDS OF 7-14KTS
BY MIDDAY WHERE THEY SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE RESUMING A TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN. ON THE OTHER HAND
...WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-25KT CAN BE EXPECTED AT BJC NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN 7-13 NWLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN S-SWLY WINDS OF 4-8KTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 300311
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
911 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LOW OVER DENVER MOVING NORTHEAST. SQUALL LINE HAS SHIFTED
EAST OF THE STATE AND WRAPAROUND RAIN SHIELD HAS DEVELOPED BACK
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER AREAS. JUST HAVE SOME NEW STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF DENVER AS THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS ADJUST. THINK THE CONVERGENCE AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AS
THIS AREA MOVES SOUTHEAST...BUT HAD TO KEEP SOME MENTION OF
THUNDER IN. THE STEADIER RAIN IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED...SO RAISED POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
THERE IS SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION
TO BE ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET BUT WITH VALLEY TEMPS IN THE 30S
THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS IN
NORTH AND MIDDLE PARKS. WARM GROUND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY TRAVEL
IMPACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE AND SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE. THE PATCHES OF
STRATUS EARLIER TODAY HAVE LEFT BEHIND SOME SHALLOW STABLE
LAYERS...BUT THEY ARE ERODING AS MIXING STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE
FAST APPROACHING Q-G LIFT. THIS RATHER STRONG AND COMPACT LOBE ON
THE NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT IS INDEED IN PLAY AS THE
COOLING ALOFT AND SURFACE HEATING HAS ALLOWED CAPES TO INCREASE TO
1000-1500 J/KG ON THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH 500 J/KG FARTHER NORTH
OF DENVER IN THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT WILL
CERTAINLY BE IN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AREAS FROM THE PALMER
DIVIDE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO WHERE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. IN THOSE LOCATIONS...COULD SEE VERY WELL
ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE AND HIGH WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT...AS WELL
AS EMBEDDED TORNADOES GIVEN THE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...0-1KM
HELICITY OF 120-180 M2/S2 AND 0-3KM HELICITY OF 180-220 M2/S2.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES WILL OCCUR WITH TRAINING
CELLS/LINES. OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW BUT
MINOR FLOODING LIKELY WHERE STORMS TRAIN.

THERE MAY BE A SECOND BATCH OF LESS INTENSE SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT REDEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. BY LATE
EVENING...WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY TO ABOUT 30-35
KTS CROSS MOUNTAIN AND A MEAN STATE CRITICAL LAYER ALSO DEVELOPS.
THIS WILL KEEP STRONG AND PERHAPS VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. SHOULD SEE OROGRAPHIC
PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND COLD
ADVECTION STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A 1-4 INCH SNOWFALL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY...MAINLY ABOVE 9500 FEET BUT SOME SNOW MAY REACH VALLEY
FLOORS LATE.

THE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY. ON THE PLAINS...A DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH. QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
ASCENT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THEN INCREASES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUES AT MODERATE VALUES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z THURSDAY OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. ASCENT SHOULD BE FINISHED BY AROUND 12Z THURSDAY
WITH STRONG DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE CWA THEREAFTER. OROGRAPHICS
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY DO NOT LOOK TOO GREAT BUT EAST OF THE HILLS A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE IS FORECAST THAT COINCIDES WITH QG ASCENT ALOFT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THIS PASSING
TROUGH. THE SYSTEM LOOKS COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS EVEN IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PARKS AND
THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS BEFORE IT IS ALL OVER. WILL NOT HOIST ANY
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS POINT BUT AN ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE CONSIDERED BY LATER SHIFTS AT LEAST IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH AND DRY AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 911 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DENVER AREA TO DIMINISH
WITH HIGHER CEILINGS BY 06Z AND WINDS BECOMING A LIGHTER SW. AFTER
THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 292041
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
241 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE AND SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE. THE PATCHES OF
STRATUS EARLIER TODAY HAVE LEFT BEHIND SOME SHALLOW STABLE
LAYERS...BUT THEY ARE ERODING AS MIXING STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE
FAST APPROACHING Q-G LIFT. THIS RATHER STRONG AND COMPACT LOBE ON
THE NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT IS INDEED IN PLAY AS THE
COOLING ALOFT AND SURFACE HEATING HAS ALLOWED CAPES TO INCREASE TO
1000-1500 J/KG ON THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH 500 J/KG FARTHER NORTH
OF DENVER IN THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT WILL
CERTAINLY BE IN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AREAS FROM THE PALMER
DIVIDE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO WHERE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. IN THOSE LOCATIONS...COULD SEE VERY WELL
ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE AND HIGH WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT...AS WELL
AS EMBEDDED TORNADOES GIVEN THE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...0-1KM
HELICITY OF 120-180 M2/S2 AND 0-3KM HELICITY OF 180-220 M2/S2.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES WILL OCCUR WITH TRAINING
CELLS/LINES. OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW BUT
MINOR FLOODING LIKELY WHERE STORMS TRAIN.

THERE MAY BE A SECOND BATCH OF LESS INTENSE SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT REDEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. BY LATE
EVENING...WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY TO ABOUT 30-35
KTS CROSS MOUNTAIN AND A MEAN STATE CRITICAL LAYER ALSO DEVELOPS.
THIS WILL KEEP STRONG AND PERHAPS VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. SHOULD SEE OROGRAPHIC
PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND COLD
ADVECTION STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A 1-4 INCH SNOWFALL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY...MAINLY ABOVE 9500 FEET BUT SOME SNOW MAY REACH VALLEY
FLOORS LATE.

THE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY. ON THE PLAINS...A DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH. QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
ASCENT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THEN INCREASES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUES AT MODERATE VALUES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z THURSDAY OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. ASCENT SHOULD BE FINISHED BY AROUND 12Z THURSDAY
WITH STRONG DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE CWA THEREAFTER. OROGRAPHICS
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY DO NOT LOOK TOO GREAT BUT EAST OF THE HILLS A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE IS FORECAST THAT COINCIDES WITH QG ASCENT ALOFT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THIS PASSING
TROUGH. THE SYSTEM LOOKS COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS EVEN IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PARKS AND
THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS BEFORE IT IS ALL OVER. WILL NOT HOIST ANY
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS POINT BUT AN ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE CONSIDERED BY LATER SHIFTS AT LEAST IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH AND DRY AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TIL AROUND 01Z BEFORE DECREASING.
GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS AND HAIL EXPECTED FROM STRONGEST
STORMS...ALONG WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTION DOWN TO 2SM OR LESS WITH
STRONGEST STORMS. AFTER THAT...STILL CANT RULE OUT REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS/STORMS BUT WITH LESS INTENSITY UNTIL ABOUT 04Z.
OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AT
KBJC TO 20-30 KTS WITH MEAN STATE CRITICAL WIND PROFILE MENTIONED
ABOVE. VFR WITH LIGHTER WINDS TUESDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 292041
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
241 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE AND SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE. THE PATCHES OF
STRATUS EARLIER TODAY HAVE LEFT BEHIND SOME SHALLOW STABLE
LAYERS...BUT THEY ARE ERODING AS MIXING STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE
FAST APPROACHING Q-G LIFT. THIS RATHER STRONG AND COMPACT LOBE ON
THE NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT IS INDEED IN PLAY AS THE
COOLING ALOFT AND SURFACE HEATING HAS ALLOWED CAPES TO INCREASE TO
1000-1500 J/KG ON THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH 500 J/KG FARTHER NORTH
OF DENVER IN THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT WILL
CERTAINLY BE IN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AREAS FROM THE PALMER
DIVIDE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO WHERE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. IN THOSE LOCATIONS...COULD SEE VERY WELL
ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE AND HIGH WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT...AS WELL
AS EMBEDDED TORNADOES GIVEN THE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...0-1KM
HELICITY OF 120-180 M2/S2 AND 0-3KM HELICITY OF 180-220 M2/S2.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES WILL OCCUR WITH TRAINING
CELLS/LINES. OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW BUT
MINOR FLOODING LIKELY WHERE STORMS TRAIN.

THERE MAY BE A SECOND BATCH OF LESS INTENSE SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT REDEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. BY LATE
EVENING...WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY TO ABOUT 30-35
KTS CROSS MOUNTAIN AND A MEAN STATE CRITICAL LAYER ALSO DEVELOPS.
THIS WILL KEEP STRONG AND PERHAPS VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. SHOULD SEE OROGRAPHIC
PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND COLD
ADVECTION STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A 1-4 INCH SNOWFALL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY...MAINLY ABOVE 9500 FEET BUT SOME SNOW MAY REACH VALLEY
FLOORS LATE.

THE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY. ON THE PLAINS...A DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH. QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
ASCENT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THEN INCREASES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUES AT MODERATE VALUES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z THURSDAY OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. ASCENT SHOULD BE FINISHED BY AROUND 12Z THURSDAY
WITH STRONG DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE CWA THEREAFTER. OROGRAPHICS
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY DO NOT LOOK TOO GREAT BUT EAST OF THE HILLS A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE IS FORECAST THAT COINCIDES WITH QG ASCENT ALOFT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THIS PASSING
TROUGH. THE SYSTEM LOOKS COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS EVEN IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PARKS AND
THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS BEFORE IT IS ALL OVER. WILL NOT HOIST ANY
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS POINT BUT AN ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE CONSIDERED BY LATER SHIFTS AT LEAST IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH AND DRY AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TIL AROUND 01Z BEFORE DECREASING.
GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS AND HAIL EXPECTED FROM STRONGEST
STORMS...ALONG WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTION DOWN TO 2SM OR LESS WITH
STRONGEST STORMS. AFTER THAT...STILL CANT RULE OUT REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS/STORMS BUT WITH LESS INTENSITY UNTIL ABOUT 04Z.
OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AT
KBJC TO 20-30 KTS WITH MEAN STATE CRITICAL WIND PROFILE MENTIONED
ABOVE. VFR WITH LIGHTER WINDS TUESDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS65 KBOU 291624
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1024 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH A FEW SEVERE
STORMS/SQUALL LINES LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING. CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATUS DECK
IN THE LOW LEVEL COOL POOL SITTING OVER MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE.
THE STRATUS AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ERODE
GRADUALLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS DEEP LAYER LIFT/MIXING AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE AHEAD OF STRONG SHORT WAVE. Q-G LIFT
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MAX LIFT TURNING EASTWARD AND EJECTING TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS AT THIS TIME...AND TARGETED TO REACH THE FRONT
RANGE BY PEAK HEATING NEAR 21Z. CAPES WILL REACH THE 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE WITH T/TD MID 70S/MID 50S. THE HIGHER CAPES WILL BE
WHERE STRONGEST HEATING OCCURS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...
0-6 KM SHEAR REACHES 40-50 KTS WHILE 0-1KM HELICITY REACHES
120-180 M2/S2 AND 0-3KM REACHES 180-220 M2/S2. THOSE HIGHER
HELICITY VALUES ALSO MAX OUT TOWARD THE LIMON TO AKRON TO
JULESBURG AREA TOWARD 00Z...YIELDING HIGHEST RISK OF TORNADOES IN
THOSE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH COULD
ORGANIZE ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA OF DOUGLAS/ELBERT COUNTIES
BY MID AFTERNOON COULD ALSO RESULT IN TORNADO THREAT THERE AS
WELL. ORGANIZED SQUALL LINES WITH HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT
INTO THE EVENING GIVEN THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AT 700 MB
INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TOWARD 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL RACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND TORNADOES. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WATER VAPOR SHOWING
AT LEAST THREE WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. THE STRONGEST ONE...THE ONE
THAT WILL AFFECT COLORADO...IS NEAR LAS VEGAS NEVADA. THIS STRONG
SHARP WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
IT WILL BECOME STRONG.

THERE WILL BE STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT ENOUGH LIFT THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK STORMS. AS LIFT AND INSTABILITY INCREASE...
CONVECTION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. BECAUSE
OF THE INSTABILITY...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD FORM PRIOR TO THE MAIN
SWATH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. CAPES OF UP TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS IF TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 70S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S. THIS INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH VERY GOOD SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM GREELEY TO DENVER
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT SEVERE STORMS WEST TO
THE FOOTHILLS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING. WEST PARTS OF THE AREA WILL
START TO SEE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE LATE THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE IN PINWHEELING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW/NEG
TILT TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WYOMING AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
ON TUESDAY...PLACING NRN COLORADO IN A DRIER ZONAL FLOW. TUESDAY
LOOKS DRY EAST OF THE MTNS WITH PREVAILING WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
WHEREAS MTN AREAS...PARTICULARLY AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...REMAIN IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO SEE LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC AND/OR CONVECTIVE PCPN BY LATE IN THE DAY IN ADVANCE
OF A MID-LEVEL PERTABATION FORMING IN THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A
90+ KT JET DIVING SEWRD ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. MODELS SHOW
THE JET CARVING OUT A POSITIVE TILT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...AND SWINGING ACRS ERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS
INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A 80-100KT JET PASSES JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. COOLING ALOFT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE DENVER
METRO AREA DURING THE MORNING WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION BY THE AFTERNOON. ALL
THIS POINTS TO A COOL...WET DAY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 30S TO LOWER 50S IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY. MTN AREAS ROUGHLY ABOVE TIMBERLINE COULD SEE A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. BY EVENING WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD...SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
AROUND THE 9500 OR 10K FOOT LEVEL. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO
BE ON THE DECLINE AT THAT TIME WITH DRIER STABLE AIR SPREADING
IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. HIGH MTN AREAS COULD STILL END UP WITH A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL RAIN TOTALS ON
THE PLAINS VARY ANYWHERE FROM A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND
0.75 INCH BY MID-EVENING WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GREATER AMOUNTS
SCATTERED ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE.

BY THURSDAY...TROUGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW ALOFT GOES
NORTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST
COAST GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY WEEKS END. THE
CWA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGS EACH DAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER BY SUNDAY...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
DIP SOME WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 959 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

STRATUS DECK AROUND 2000 FT AGL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BREAK
TOWARD 18Z-19Z WITH INCREASED MIXING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY 20Z-01Z...FIRST NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
AFFECTING KBJC AND KAPA AND THEN TOWARD 21Z-22Z AT KDEN. MAIN
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT RANGE
AIRPORTS BUT ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 40-45 KTS GIVEN STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW.
LITTLE THREAT OF STORMS AFTER 01Z AS DOWNSLOPE AND SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOW MAIN BATCH OF ORGANIZED STORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS65 KBOU 291624
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1024 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH A FEW SEVERE
STORMS/SQUALL LINES LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING. CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATUS DECK
IN THE LOW LEVEL COOL POOL SITTING OVER MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE.
THE STRATUS AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ERODE
GRADUALLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS DEEP LAYER LIFT/MIXING AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE AHEAD OF STRONG SHORT WAVE. Q-G LIFT
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MAX LIFT TURNING EASTWARD AND EJECTING TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS AT THIS TIME...AND TARGETED TO REACH THE FRONT
RANGE BY PEAK HEATING NEAR 21Z. CAPES WILL REACH THE 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE WITH T/TD MID 70S/MID 50S. THE HIGHER CAPES WILL BE
WHERE STRONGEST HEATING OCCURS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...
0-6 KM SHEAR REACHES 40-50 KTS WHILE 0-1KM HELICITY REACHES
120-180 M2/S2 AND 0-3KM REACHES 180-220 M2/S2. THOSE HIGHER
HELICITY VALUES ALSO MAX OUT TOWARD THE LIMON TO AKRON TO
JULESBURG AREA TOWARD 00Z...YIELDING HIGHEST RISK OF TORNADOES IN
THOSE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH COULD
ORGANIZE ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA OF DOUGLAS/ELBERT COUNTIES
BY MID AFTERNOON COULD ALSO RESULT IN TORNADO THREAT THERE AS
WELL. ORGANIZED SQUALL LINES WITH HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT
INTO THE EVENING GIVEN THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AT 700 MB
INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TOWARD 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL RACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND TORNADOES. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WATER VAPOR SHOWING
AT LEAST THREE WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. THE STRONGEST ONE...THE ONE
THAT WILL AFFECT COLORADO...IS NEAR LAS VEGAS NEVADA. THIS STRONG
SHARP WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
IT WILL BECOME STRONG.

THERE WILL BE STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT ENOUGH LIFT THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK STORMS. AS LIFT AND INSTABILITY INCREASE...
CONVECTION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. BECAUSE
OF THE INSTABILITY...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD FORM PRIOR TO THE MAIN
SWATH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. CAPES OF UP TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS IF TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 70S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S. THIS INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH VERY GOOD SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM GREELEY TO DENVER
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT SEVERE STORMS WEST TO
THE FOOTHILLS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING. WEST PARTS OF THE AREA WILL
START TO SEE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE LATE THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE IN PINWHEELING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW/NEG
TILT TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WYOMING AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
ON TUESDAY...PLACING NRN COLORADO IN A DRIER ZONAL FLOW. TUESDAY
LOOKS DRY EAST OF THE MTNS WITH PREVAILING WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
WHEREAS MTN AREAS...PARTICULARLY AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...REMAIN IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO SEE LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC AND/OR CONVECTIVE PCPN BY LATE IN THE DAY IN ADVANCE
OF A MID-LEVEL PERTABATION FORMING IN THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A
90+ KT JET DIVING SEWRD ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. MODELS SHOW
THE JET CARVING OUT A POSITIVE TILT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...AND SWINGING ACRS ERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS
INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A 80-100KT JET PASSES JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. COOLING ALOFT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE DENVER
METRO AREA DURING THE MORNING WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION BY THE AFTERNOON. ALL
THIS POINTS TO A COOL...WET DAY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 30S TO LOWER 50S IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY. MTN AREAS ROUGHLY ABOVE TIMBERLINE COULD SEE A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. BY EVENING WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD...SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
AROUND THE 9500 OR 10K FOOT LEVEL. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO
BE ON THE DECLINE AT THAT TIME WITH DRIER STABLE AIR SPREADING
IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. HIGH MTN AREAS COULD STILL END UP WITH A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL RAIN TOTALS ON
THE PLAINS VARY ANYWHERE FROM A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND
0.75 INCH BY MID-EVENING WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GREATER AMOUNTS
SCATTERED ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE.

BY THURSDAY...TROUGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW ALOFT GOES
NORTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST
COAST GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY WEEKS END. THE
CWA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGS EACH DAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER BY SUNDAY...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
DIP SOME WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 959 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

STRATUS DECK AROUND 2000 FT AGL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BREAK
TOWARD 18Z-19Z WITH INCREASED MIXING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY 20Z-01Z...FIRST NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
AFFECTING KBJC AND KAPA AND THEN TOWARD 21Z-22Z AT KDEN. MAIN
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT RANGE
AIRPORTS BUT ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 40-45 KTS GIVEN STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW.
LITTLE THREAT OF STORMS AFTER 01Z AS DOWNSLOPE AND SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOW MAIN BATCH OF ORGANIZED STORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 291002
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
402 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL RACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND TORNADOES. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WATER VAPOR SHOWING
AT LEAST THREE WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. THE STRONGEST ONE...THE ONE
THAT WILL AFFECT COLORADO...IS NEAR LAS VEGAS NEVADA. THIS STRONG
SHARP WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
IT WILL BECOME STRONG.

THERE WILL BE STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT ENOUGH LIFT THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK STORMS. AS LIFT AND INSTABILITY INCREASE...
CONVECTION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. BECAUSE
OF THE INSTABILITY...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD FORM PRIOR TO THE MAIN
SWATH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. CAPES OF UP TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS IF TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 70S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S. THIS INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH VERY GOOD SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM GREELEY TO DENVER
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT SEVERE STORMS WEST TO
THE FOOTHILLS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING. WEST PARTS OF THE AREA WILL
START TO SEE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE LATE THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE IN PINWHEELING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW/NEG
TILT TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WYOMING AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
ON TUESDAY...PLACING NRN COLORADO IN A DRIER ZONAL FLOW. TUESDAY
LOOKS DRY EAST OF THE MTNS WITH PREVAILING WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
WHEREAS MTN AREAS...PARTICULARLY AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...REMAIN IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO SEE LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC AND/OR CONVECTIVE PCPN BY LATE IN THE DAY IN ADVANCE
OF A MID-LEVEL PERTABATION FORMING IN THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A
90+ KT JET DIVING SEWRD ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. MODELS SHOW
THE JET CARVING OUT A POSITIVE TILT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...AND SWINGING ACRS ERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS
INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A 80-100KT JET PASSES JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. COOLING ALOFT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE DENVER
METRO AREA DURING THE MORNING WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION BY THE AFTERNOON. ALL
THIS POINTS TO A COOL...WET DAY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 30S TO LOWER 50S IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY. MTN AREAS ROUGHLY ABOVE TIMBERLINE COULD SEE A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. BY EVENING WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD...SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
AROUND THE 9500 OR 10K FOOT LEVEL. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO
BE ON THE DECLINE AT THAT TIME WITH DRIER STABLE AIR SPREADING
IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. HIGH MTN AREAS COULD STILL END UP WITH A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL RAIN TOTALS ON
THE PLAINS VARY ANYWHERE FROM A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND
0.75 INCH BY MID-EVENING WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GREATER AMOUNTS
SCATTERED ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE.

BY THURSDAY...TROUGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW ALOFT GOES
NORTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST
COAST GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY WEEKS END. THE
CWA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGS EACH DAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER BY SUNDAY...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
DIP SOME WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS OF 500 TO 2000 FEET WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
14Z...THEN SCATTER OUT. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
DENVER AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN
21Z AND 01Z. HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS...AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...EVEN A TORNADO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AROUND 14Z...AND THEN SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST BY 18Z.

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AROUND 02Z. SKIES WILL BECOME
SCATTERED SHORTLY AFTER WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 290344
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
944 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BREAK BETWEEN SHOWER BANDS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. UPSTREAM BAND OVER WESTERN COLORADO WILL EDGE EASTWARD INTO
THE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THIS DIMINISHING DUE TO
DRIER AIR ENTRAINING FROM THE SOUTH AND THE TIME OF DAY...BUT
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING ONTO THE PLAINS
IN THE MORNING UP TOWARD THE NORTHERN BORDER. CHAOTIC WIND FIELD
AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING MID LEVEL CLOUDS LEAVES DOUBT ABOUT ANY LOW
STRATUS/FOG FORMATION...SO HAVE KEPT IT OUT BUT SOME PATCHES ARE
STILL POSSIBLE. AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGES
IN THE MODELS. CAPE IS LIMITED WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AND DEW POINTS STILL PROBABLY AROUND 50 ON THE BORDER...BUT
THERE IS LOTS OF SHEAR. COULD BE A GOOD TORNADO PROFILE ON THE
PLAINS IF LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK MORE...BUT A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
TURNING AND THEN PRETTY LINEAR SHEAR ABOVE THAT. GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE OBVIOUS THREAT...HAIL MAY BE HARD TO GET GIVEN THE LOW
CAPES. TIMING IS ALSO LOOKING TO BE FAIRLY LATE WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS TO DENVER AROUND 00Z. COULD BE ANOTHER BAND FORMING AHEAD OF
THAT ON THE PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL BE FIGHTING THE LOW INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT
EVEN FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD LIMON THERE IS A CHANCE THE CAP COULD
BREAK. CAPE IS LIMITED TO ABOUT 800 J/KG OR LESS...SO EVEN IF THE
CAP BREAKS ON THE PLAINS ANY SEVERE THREAT IS RATHER LOW. BIGGEST
THREAT WOULD BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH AS
MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. BEHIND THIS MORE ORGANIZED BATCH OF
PRECIP...THERE IS SOME SHORT TERM STABILIZATION BUT STILL CANT
RULE OUT REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
STABILIZE WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE NORTHERN BORDER
AREA. ENOUGH CLEARING AND WEAK DENVER CYCLONE COULD BRING SOME
STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON THE PLAINS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 00Z. LARGE SCALE Q-G LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME...DAYTIME HEATING WILL ACT TO DESTABILIZE
AIRMASS WITH CAPES EXPECTED TO REACH 1000 J/KG OR MORE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AIDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. 0-1KM
HELICITY INCREASES TO 100-150 M/S2 21Z-00Z AND 0-3KM HELICITY UP
TO 120-200 M/S2. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS FIELDS AND LOWER LCLS
COMBINED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD RESULT IN TORNADO
THREAT ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN TO LIMON...BUT
MODELS TYPICALLY SCOUR MOISTURE TOO FAR AND TOO QUICKLY TO THE
EAST WITH THESE STRONG AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGHS SO
THAT COULD EVEN BE REFINED A BIT FARTHER WEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS SEVERE THREAT THROUGH TOMORROW. LOOKS LIKE CAPE AND
PERHAPS ADDITIONAL STRATUS DEVELOPMENT MONDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER
WEST...CAPES ARE LESS THAN 500 J/KG BUT CONSIDERABLE LIFT SHOULD
RESULT IN GOOD SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MODELS HAVE A PRETTY DECENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS
THE TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. JET LEVEL WIND SPEEDS
GET FAIRLY BRISK ON WEDNESDAY...CLOSE TO 100 KNOTS. A WEAKER UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
/EARLY EVENING. DOWNSLOPING FOLLOWS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA EARLY MONDAY EVENING...
THEN DECENT DOWNWARD MOTION PROGGED WELL INTO TUESDAY. THE ENERGY
IS BENIGN THEN INTO TUESDAY OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING UPWARD
MOTION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPING MONDAY EVENING
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. THIS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS TO KICK IN BY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WEDNESDAY`S UPPER FEATURE BRINGS A COLD
FRONT AND UPSLOPE TO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MOISTURE
...IT IS SIGNIFICANT MONDAY EVENING...AND EVEN AFTER TROUGH
PASSAGE THERE IS PLENTY TO STAY OVER THE WESTERN CWA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AROUND...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA...THEN MOISTURE INCREASES
EVERYWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN SOME
DRYING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.50 TO 1.20 INCH
RANGE WEST TO EAST FOR THE CWA MONDAY EVENING. VALUES ARE IN THE
0.30 TO 0.80 INCH RANGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY
DECENT CAPE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS
ALMOST NO CAPE LATE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME CAPE...MINOR FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE PLAINS. THE QPF FIELDS ARE
LOADED WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER. THERE IS A BIT OF MEASURABLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MEASURABLE OVER ALL THE
CWA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CERTAINLY...THERE WILL BE SNOW
LEVEL ISSUES IN THE ALPINE AREAS...THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TROUGH. FOR POPS...WILL
KEEP WITH THE CURRENT THINKING...VERY HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER MONDAY EVENING. WILL NEED 30-60%S FOR THE WEDNEDAY/
WEDNESDAY EVENING TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE...TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE
CLOSE TO MONDAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE UP TO 6 C COOLER THAN
TUESDAY`S FROM THE NAM...WITH ONLY A TAD COOLER ON THE GFS. FOR
THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITES STATES ALL FOUR DAYS WITH WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR CWA. THE AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY
ALL FOUR DAYS. NO POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 944 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FOR A FEW
HOURS ON MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY AFTERNOON A PERIOD OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY AND INSTRUMENT
APPROACHES TO KDEN MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW HOURS. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE OF ONE OR MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND EAST OF DENVER IN THE EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD





000
FXUS65 KBOU 290344
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
944 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BREAK BETWEEN SHOWER BANDS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. UPSTREAM BAND OVER WESTERN COLORADO WILL EDGE EASTWARD INTO
THE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THIS DIMINISHING DUE TO
DRIER AIR ENTRAINING FROM THE SOUTH AND THE TIME OF DAY...BUT
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING ONTO THE PLAINS
IN THE MORNING UP TOWARD THE NORTHERN BORDER. CHAOTIC WIND FIELD
AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING MID LEVEL CLOUDS LEAVES DOUBT ABOUT ANY LOW
STRATUS/FOG FORMATION...SO HAVE KEPT IT OUT BUT SOME PATCHES ARE
STILL POSSIBLE. AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGES
IN THE MODELS. CAPE IS LIMITED WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AND DEW POINTS STILL PROBABLY AROUND 50 ON THE BORDER...BUT
THERE IS LOTS OF SHEAR. COULD BE A GOOD TORNADO PROFILE ON THE
PLAINS IF LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK MORE...BUT A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
TURNING AND THEN PRETTY LINEAR SHEAR ABOVE THAT. GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE OBVIOUS THREAT...HAIL MAY BE HARD TO GET GIVEN THE LOW
CAPES. TIMING IS ALSO LOOKING TO BE FAIRLY LATE WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS TO DENVER AROUND 00Z. COULD BE ANOTHER BAND FORMING AHEAD OF
THAT ON THE PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL BE FIGHTING THE LOW INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT
EVEN FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD LIMON THERE IS A CHANCE THE CAP COULD
BREAK. CAPE IS LIMITED TO ABOUT 800 J/KG OR LESS...SO EVEN IF THE
CAP BREAKS ON THE PLAINS ANY SEVERE THREAT IS RATHER LOW. BIGGEST
THREAT WOULD BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH AS
MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. BEHIND THIS MORE ORGANIZED BATCH OF
PRECIP...THERE IS SOME SHORT TERM STABILIZATION BUT STILL CANT
RULE OUT REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
STABILIZE WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE NORTHERN BORDER
AREA. ENOUGH CLEARING AND WEAK DENVER CYCLONE COULD BRING SOME
STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON THE PLAINS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 00Z. LARGE SCALE Q-G LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME...DAYTIME HEATING WILL ACT TO DESTABILIZE
AIRMASS WITH CAPES EXPECTED TO REACH 1000 J/KG OR MORE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AIDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. 0-1KM
HELICITY INCREASES TO 100-150 M/S2 21Z-00Z AND 0-3KM HELICITY UP
TO 120-200 M/S2. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS FIELDS AND LOWER LCLS
COMBINED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD RESULT IN TORNADO
THREAT ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN TO LIMON...BUT
MODELS TYPICALLY SCOUR MOISTURE TOO FAR AND TOO QUICKLY TO THE
EAST WITH THESE STRONG AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGHS SO
THAT COULD EVEN BE REFINED A BIT FARTHER WEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS SEVERE THREAT THROUGH TOMORROW. LOOKS LIKE CAPE AND
PERHAPS ADDITIONAL STRATUS DEVELOPMENT MONDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER
WEST...CAPES ARE LESS THAN 500 J/KG BUT CONSIDERABLE LIFT SHOULD
RESULT IN GOOD SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MODELS HAVE A PRETTY DECENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS
THE TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. JET LEVEL WIND SPEEDS
GET FAIRLY BRISK ON WEDNESDAY...CLOSE TO 100 KNOTS. A WEAKER UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
/EARLY EVENING. DOWNSLOPING FOLLOWS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA EARLY MONDAY EVENING...
THEN DECENT DOWNWARD MOTION PROGGED WELL INTO TUESDAY. THE ENERGY
IS BENIGN THEN INTO TUESDAY OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING UPWARD
MOTION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPING MONDAY EVENING
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. THIS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS TO KICK IN BY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WEDNESDAY`S UPPER FEATURE BRINGS A COLD
FRONT AND UPSLOPE TO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MOISTURE
...IT IS SIGNIFICANT MONDAY EVENING...AND EVEN AFTER TROUGH
PASSAGE THERE IS PLENTY TO STAY OVER THE WESTERN CWA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AROUND...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA...THEN MOISTURE INCREASES
EVERYWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN SOME
DRYING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.50 TO 1.20 INCH
RANGE WEST TO EAST FOR THE CWA MONDAY EVENING. VALUES ARE IN THE
0.30 TO 0.80 INCH RANGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY
DECENT CAPE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS
ALMOST NO CAPE LATE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME CAPE...MINOR FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE PLAINS. THE QPF FIELDS ARE
LOADED WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER. THERE IS A BIT OF MEASURABLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MEASURABLE OVER ALL THE
CWA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CERTAINLY...THERE WILL BE SNOW
LEVEL ISSUES IN THE ALPINE AREAS...THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TROUGH. FOR POPS...WILL
KEEP WITH THE CURRENT THINKING...VERY HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER MONDAY EVENING. WILL NEED 30-60%S FOR THE WEDNEDAY/
WEDNESDAY EVENING TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE...TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE
CLOSE TO MONDAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE UP TO 6 C COOLER THAN
TUESDAY`S FROM THE NAM...WITH ONLY A TAD COOLER ON THE GFS. FOR
THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITES STATES ALL FOUR DAYS WITH WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR CWA. THE AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY
ALL FOUR DAYS. NO POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 944 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FOR A FEW
HOURS ON MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY AFTERNOON A PERIOD OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY AND INSTRUMENT
APPROACHES TO KDEN MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW HOURS. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE OF ONE OR MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND EAST OF DENVER IN THE EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




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