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000
FXUS65 KBOU 010905
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
305 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

SUDDENLY IT IS SEPTEMBER AND WE HAVE CLASSIC SEPTEMBER WEATHER
RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR AT LOW LEVELS
TODAY COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
THE AMOUNT AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION TODAY. WE SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS...BUT EXPECT THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION TO BE LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE EASTERN
BORDER WHERE THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR ALOFT. EVEN THERE SHOWERS ARE PROBABLY A STRETCH. 700 MB WINDS
FROM THE WEST AT 20-25 KNOTS WILL MIX INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FIRST DRY AND WINDY DAY IN
A WHILE...HOWEVER FIRE DANGER IS ONLY RATED MODERATE THANKS TO
REGULAR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SUMMER AND HUMIDITIES WILL NOT
BE VERY LOW...JUST AROUND 20 PERCENT.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST...TRIMMING BACK PLAINS
POPS A LITTLE MORE AND PUTTING IN A BIT LARGER DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF 30S AND MAYBE A FEW 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MODELS HAVE FAIRLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT
IS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND A BIT HIGHER IN SPEED WITH A WEAK TROUGH
TO MOVE IN...MAINLY TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER RIDGE IS QUITE FLAT
AND ITS CENTER IS WELL SOUTH OF COLORADO THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO BE DOWNWARD IN NATURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAK UPWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS LOOK TO BE A MIX BETWEEN NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS AND
DOWNSLOPING TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
MODELS BRING DOWN A COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND IT.
MOISTURE IS PRETTY SPARSE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 0.20 TO 0.90 INCH WEST TO
EAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
VALUES RANGE FROM 0.30 TO 0.60 INCH FORM WEST TO EAST. DEW POINTS
RANGE FROM THE 20S F WEST TO THE 50S F EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS STILL SHOW DECENT CAPE OVER THE PLAINS LATE DAY TUESDAY...
THEN VERY LITTLE FOR LATE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO POPS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 3-4 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S ARE UP ANOTHER
2-3 C. FOR THE LATER DAYS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER
RIDGE IS CENTERED SOUTHEAST TO EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR COLORADO. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY DRIES OUT
A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 010905
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
305 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

SUDDENLY IT IS SEPTEMBER AND WE HAVE CLASSIC SEPTEMBER WEATHER
RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR AT LOW LEVELS
TODAY COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
THE AMOUNT AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION TODAY. WE SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS...BUT EXPECT THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION TO BE LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE EASTERN
BORDER WHERE THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR ALOFT. EVEN THERE SHOWERS ARE PROBABLY A STRETCH. 700 MB WINDS
FROM THE WEST AT 20-25 KNOTS WILL MIX INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FIRST DRY AND WINDY DAY IN
A WHILE...HOWEVER FIRE DANGER IS ONLY RATED MODERATE THANKS TO
REGULAR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SUMMER AND HUMIDITIES WILL NOT
BE VERY LOW...JUST AROUND 20 PERCENT.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST...TRIMMING BACK PLAINS
POPS A LITTLE MORE AND PUTTING IN A BIT LARGER DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF 30S AND MAYBE A FEW 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MODELS HAVE FAIRLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT
IS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND A BIT HIGHER IN SPEED WITH A WEAK TROUGH
TO MOVE IN...MAINLY TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER RIDGE IS QUITE FLAT
AND ITS CENTER IS WELL SOUTH OF COLORADO THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO BE DOWNWARD IN NATURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAK UPWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS LOOK TO BE A MIX BETWEEN NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS AND
DOWNSLOPING TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
MODELS BRING DOWN A COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND IT.
MOISTURE IS PRETTY SPARSE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 0.20 TO 0.90 INCH WEST TO
EAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
VALUES RANGE FROM 0.30 TO 0.60 INCH FORM WEST TO EAST. DEW POINTS
RANGE FROM THE 20S F WEST TO THE 50S F EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS STILL SHOW DECENT CAPE OVER THE PLAINS LATE DAY TUESDAY...
THEN VERY LITTLE FOR LATE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO POPS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 3-4 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S ARE UP ANOTHER
2-3 C. FOR THE LATER DAYS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER
RIDGE IS CENTERED SOUTHEAST TO EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR COLORADO. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY DRIES OUT
A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD





000
FXUS65 KBOU 010213
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
813 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW MOVING ACROSS WYOMING AND NORTHERN
COLORADO WITH MODEST QG ASCENT NOTED IN SHORT RANGE MODELS. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WELD COUNTY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. CYS RADAR VAD WINDS SHOWING 55KT AT 5000FT AGL
SO WON`T TAKE MUCH TO GET SEVERE WIND GUSTS GIVEN THIS STRONG FLOW
OFF THE DECK. THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE AFTERNOON AND AFTERNOON AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR
SWEEP IN BEHIND TROF AXIS. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS.

FOR MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH A DRY DAY IN STORE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXCEPTION WOULD
BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AS MODELS HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

OVERALL TREND IN THE LONG TERM STILL LOOKS GOOD. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. MDLS MAINTAIN A
GOOD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS COLORADO BOTH DAYS...WITH THE AMS MUCH
DRIER OVER THE CWFA. NOT THUNDERSTORM EITHER DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING 90 ON WEDNESDAY. THE TREND FOR
COOLER AND WETTER WILL KICK IN BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS FM WLY TO SWLY ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. IN THE MID LEVELS...FLOW ALOFT WILL
START TO TAP INTO THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEASTERN CO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY BE EVEN
COOLER THAN THOSE REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. IN ANY
EVENT...ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A CHC OR SLGT
CHC OF TSTMS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 809 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT NLY BUT SHOULD BECOME LIGHT SSE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND STAY MOSTLY SLY OVERNIGHT.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 312001
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
201 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW MOVING ACROSS WYOMING AND NORTHERN
COLORADO WITH MODEST QG ASCENT NOTED IN SHORT RANGE MODELS. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WELD COUNTY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. CYS RADAR VAD WINDS SHOWING 55KT AT 5000FT AGL
SO WON`T TAKE MUCH TO GET SEVERE WIND GUSTS GIVEN THIS STRONG FLOW
OFF THE DECK. THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE AFTERNOON AND AFTERNOON AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR
SWEEP IN BEHIND TROF AXIS. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS.

FOR MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH A DRY DAY IN STORE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXCEPTION WOULD
BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AS MODELS HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

OVERALL TREND IN THE LONG TERM STILL LOOKS GOOD. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. MDLS MAINTAIN A
GOOD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS COLORADO BOTH DAYS...WITH THE AMS MUCH
DRIER OVER THE CWFA. NOT THUNDERSTORM EITHER DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING 90 ON WEDNESDAY. THE TREND FOR
COOLER AND WETTER WILL KICK IN BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS FM WLY TO SWLY ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. IN THE MID LEVELS...FLOW ALOFT WILL
START TO TAP INTO THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEASTERN CO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY BE EVEN
COOLER THAN THOSE REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. IN ANY
EVENT...ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A CHC OR SLGT
CHC OF TSTMS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE EVOLVING AND STRONGER CONVECTION HAS STAYED
NORTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A STRONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH FROM THE STORMS IN WELD COUNTY WHICH
WILL GET TO KDEN BETWEEN 2030-21Z AS WINDS SHIFT AND INCREASE FROM
THE NORTH. THERE ARE SOME WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW
OVER WESTERN BOULDER COUNTY WHICH COULD ALSO EFFECT THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 21-23Z. WILL MONITOR IN CASE TS IS NEEDED BACK IN THE TAF.
FOR NOW STORM EFFECTS COVERED FOR WINDS IN TEMPO GROUP. GOOD
CLEARING EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING. NO STORMS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 312001
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
201 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW MOVING ACROSS WYOMING AND NORTHERN
COLORADO WITH MODEST QG ASCENT NOTED IN SHORT RANGE MODELS. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WELD COUNTY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. CYS RADAR VAD WINDS SHOWING 55KT AT 5000FT AGL
SO WON`T TAKE MUCH TO GET SEVERE WIND GUSTS GIVEN THIS STRONG FLOW
OFF THE DECK. THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE AFTERNOON AND AFTERNOON AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR
SWEEP IN BEHIND TROF AXIS. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS.

FOR MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH A DRY DAY IN STORE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXCEPTION WOULD
BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AS MODELS HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

OVERALL TREND IN THE LONG TERM STILL LOOKS GOOD. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. MDLS MAINTAIN A
GOOD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS COLORADO BOTH DAYS...WITH THE AMS MUCH
DRIER OVER THE CWFA. NOT THUNDERSTORM EITHER DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING 90 ON WEDNESDAY. THE TREND FOR
COOLER AND WETTER WILL KICK IN BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS FM WLY TO SWLY ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. IN THE MID LEVELS...FLOW ALOFT WILL
START TO TAP INTO THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEASTERN CO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY BE EVEN
COOLER THAN THOSE REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. IN ANY
EVENT...ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A CHC OR SLGT
CHC OF TSTMS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE EVOLVING AND STRONGER CONVECTION HAS STAYED
NORTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A STRONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH FROM THE STORMS IN WELD COUNTY WHICH
WILL GET TO KDEN BETWEEN 2030-21Z AS WINDS SHIFT AND INCREASE FROM
THE NORTH. THERE ARE SOME WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW
OVER WESTERN BOULDER COUNTY WHICH COULD ALSO EFFECT THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 21-23Z. WILL MONITOR IN CASE TS IS NEEDED BACK IN THE TAF.
FOR NOW STORM EFFECTS COVERED FOR WINDS IN TEMPO GROUP. GOOD
CLEARING EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING. NO STORMS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 311544
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
944 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING STRONG UPPER TROF AXIS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE TROF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LATEST RAP SHOWING
MODEST QG ASCENT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO WITH THE TROF AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHEAST
WHILE MAINTAINING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

MAIN CHANGE TO ZONES WAS TO INCREASE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FAR NORTHERN PLAINS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS GIVEN MODERATE ASCENT WITH JET
STREAK AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
1000-1500J/KG OF CAPE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS.  WINDS
TO 70 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN THE STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW OF 50KT AT 500MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TODAY. DECENT BAND
OF SHOWERS WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS NOW...THIS SHOWER BAND HAS HAD 40 MPH WINDS WITH IT
ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING...PROBABLY NOT AS STRONG FURTHER SOUTH BUT
EXPECT SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH IT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THIS
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL SHOWER BANDS MUCH OF THE DAY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE WEST WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH MIDDAY. WIND SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND THE TROUGH AXIS COME THIS AFTERNOON AND
THAT WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. BY
SUNSET THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE AND THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE EXITING. CAPES WILL BE VERY LOW SO ONLY EXPECTING THE
WIND WITH THE SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. GENERALLY
EXPECTING GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR SEVERE GUSTS IN ORGANIZED LINES...NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH
PRECIP THOUGH SO A LOW THREAT. NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER CONVECTION
MAY BE A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER MOISTURE...AGAIN MAINLY A WIND
THREAT BUT MORE OF A CHANCE OUT THERE.

WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SOME COLD ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE LOWER...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. I LOWERED TEMPS A
LITTLE TONIGHT WITH CLEARING...DRIER AIR...AND DIMINISHING WINDS
IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED OVER THE CWA
MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF COLORADO. THE JET LEVEL
FLOW DECREASES AND BECOMES ZONAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY...WEAKER...BUT STILL DOWNWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE WEAK UPSLOPE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS TAKE OVER. THE
PLAINS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS PROGGED ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THROUGH THE PERIODS...BUT THERE IS SOME
PROGGED AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE PLAINS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE GENERALLY FROM THE 0.30 TO 0.80 INCH RANGE THROUGHOUT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT READINGS RANGE FROM THE 20S F WEST TO
LOWER 50S F EAST THROUGH THE PERIODS. THERE IS TINY BIT OF CAPE
PROGGED OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
PROGGED MAINLY FOR THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
CONCERNING MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS...THERE ARE TINY
AMOUNTS PROGGED HERE AND THERE NOW AND THEN FROM THE VARIOUS
MODELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS VERY
INSIGNIFICANT. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH 0-10%S THROUGH THE PERIODS.
FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C COLDER THAN TODAY`S
EXPECTED READINGS. TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-5 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS HAVE
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IMMEDIATELY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO
ALL FOUR DAYS. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ALL FOUR
DAYS. MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ALSO SHOW UPSLOPE EAST OF THE DIVIDE FROM LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL TERMINALS AS UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...WE HAVE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. HOWEVER AS BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS THERE WILL BE MORE DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL DRY THINGS OUT WITH LESSER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE HIGHER WINDS AS
THE MAIN THREAT. RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE TROF EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 311544
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
944 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING STRONG UPPER TROF AXIS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE TROF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LATEST RAP SHOWING
MODEST QG ASCENT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO WITH THE TROF AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHEAST
WHILE MAINTAINING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

MAIN CHANGE TO ZONES WAS TO INCREASE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FAR NORTHERN PLAINS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS GIVEN MODERATE ASCENT WITH JET
STREAK AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
1000-1500J/KG OF CAPE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS.  WINDS
TO 70 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN THE STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW OF 50KT AT 500MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TODAY. DECENT BAND
OF SHOWERS WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS NOW...THIS SHOWER BAND HAS HAD 40 MPH WINDS WITH IT
ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING...PROBABLY NOT AS STRONG FURTHER SOUTH BUT
EXPECT SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH IT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THIS
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL SHOWER BANDS MUCH OF THE DAY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE WEST WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH MIDDAY. WIND SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND THE TROUGH AXIS COME THIS AFTERNOON AND
THAT WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. BY
SUNSET THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE AND THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE EXITING. CAPES WILL BE VERY LOW SO ONLY EXPECTING THE
WIND WITH THE SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. GENERALLY
EXPECTING GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR SEVERE GUSTS IN ORGANIZED LINES...NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH
PRECIP THOUGH SO A LOW THREAT. NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER CONVECTION
MAY BE A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER MOISTURE...AGAIN MAINLY A WIND
THREAT BUT MORE OF A CHANCE OUT THERE.

WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SOME COLD ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE LOWER...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. I LOWERED TEMPS A
LITTLE TONIGHT WITH CLEARING...DRIER AIR...AND DIMINISHING WINDS
IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED OVER THE CWA
MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF COLORADO. THE JET LEVEL
FLOW DECREASES AND BECOMES ZONAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY...WEAKER...BUT STILL DOWNWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE WEAK UPSLOPE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS TAKE OVER. THE
PLAINS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS PROGGED ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THROUGH THE PERIODS...BUT THERE IS SOME
PROGGED AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE PLAINS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE GENERALLY FROM THE 0.30 TO 0.80 INCH RANGE THROUGHOUT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT READINGS RANGE FROM THE 20S F WEST TO
LOWER 50S F EAST THROUGH THE PERIODS. THERE IS TINY BIT OF CAPE
PROGGED OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
PROGGED MAINLY FOR THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
CONCERNING MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS...THERE ARE TINY
AMOUNTS PROGGED HERE AND THERE NOW AND THEN FROM THE VARIOUS
MODELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS VERY
INSIGNIFICANT. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH 0-10%S THROUGH THE PERIODS.
FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C COLDER THAN TODAY`S
EXPECTED READINGS. TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-5 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS HAVE
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IMMEDIATELY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO
ALL FOUR DAYS. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ALL FOUR
DAYS. MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ALSO SHOW UPSLOPE EAST OF THE DIVIDE FROM LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL TERMINALS AS UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...WE HAVE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. HOWEVER AS BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS THERE WILL BE MORE DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL DRY THINGS OUT WITH LESSER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE HIGHER WINDS AS
THE MAIN THREAT. RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE TROF EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 311028
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
428 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TODAY. DECENT BAND
OF SHOWERS WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS NOW...THIS SHOWER BAND HAS HAD 40 MPH WINDS WITH IT
ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING...PROBABLY NOT AS STRONG FURTHER SOUTH BUT
EXPECT SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH IT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THIS
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL SHOWER BANDS MUCH OF THE DAY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE WEST WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH MIDDAY. WIND SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND THE TROUGH AXIS COME THIS AFTERNOON AND
THAT WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. BY
SUNSET THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE AND THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE EXITING. CAPES WILL BE VERY LOW SO ONLY EXPECTING THE
WIND WITH THE SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. GENERALLY
EXPECTING GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR SEVERE GUSTS IN ORGANIZED LINES...NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH
PRECIP THOUGH SO A LOW THREAT. NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER CONVECTION
MAY BE A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER MOISTURE...AGAIN MAINLY A WIND
THREAT BUT MORE OF A CHANCE OUT THERE.

WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SOME COLD ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE LOWER...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. I LOWERED TEMPS A
LITTLE TONIGHT WITH CLEARING...DRIER AIR...AND DIMINISHING WINDS
IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED OVER THE CWA
MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF COLORADO. THE JET LEVEL
FLOW DECREASES AND BECOMES ZONAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY...WEAKER...BUT STILL DOWNWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE WEAK UPSLOPE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS TAKE OVER. THE
PLAINS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS PROGGED ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THROUGH THE PERIODS...BUT THERE IS SOME
PROGGED AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE PLAINS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE GENERALLY FROM THE 0.30 TO 0.80 INCH RANGE THROUGHOUT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT READINGS RANGE FROM THE 20S F WEST TO
LOWER 50S F EAST THROUGH THE PERIODS. THERE IS TINY BIT OF CAPE
PROGGED OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
PROGGED MAINLY FOR THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
CONCERNING MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS...THERE ARE TINY
AMOUNTS PROGGED HERE AND THERE NOW AND THEN FROM THE VARIOUS
MODELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS VERY
INSIGNIFICANT. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH 0-10%S THROUGH THE PERIODS.
FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C COLDER THAN TODAY`S
EXPECTED READINGS. TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-5 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS HAVE
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IMMEDIATELY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO
ALL FOUR DAYS. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ALL FOUR
DAYS. MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ALSO SHOW UPSLOPE EAST OF THE DIVIDE FROM LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT
ACROSS THE DENVER AREA...POSSIBLY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS.
MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
SHIFT TO WEST WINDS AROUND 14Z...THEN NORTH WINDS PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS WITH CLEARING AFTER 00Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD





000
FXUS65 KBOU 311028
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
428 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TODAY. DECENT BAND
OF SHOWERS WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS NOW...THIS SHOWER BAND HAS HAD 40 MPH WINDS WITH IT
ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING...PROBABLY NOT AS STRONG FURTHER SOUTH BUT
EXPECT SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH IT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THIS
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL SHOWER BANDS MUCH OF THE DAY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE WEST WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH MIDDAY. WIND SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND THE TROUGH AXIS COME THIS AFTERNOON AND
THAT WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. BY
SUNSET THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE AND THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE EXITING. CAPES WILL BE VERY LOW SO ONLY EXPECTING THE
WIND WITH THE SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. GENERALLY
EXPECTING GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR SEVERE GUSTS IN ORGANIZED LINES...NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH
PRECIP THOUGH SO A LOW THREAT. NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER CONVECTION
MAY BE A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER MOISTURE...AGAIN MAINLY A WIND
THREAT BUT MORE OF A CHANCE OUT THERE.

WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SOME COLD ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE LOWER...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. I LOWERED TEMPS A
LITTLE TONIGHT WITH CLEARING...DRIER AIR...AND DIMINISHING WINDS
IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED OVER THE CWA
MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF COLORADO. THE JET LEVEL
FLOW DECREASES AND BECOMES ZONAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY...WEAKER...BUT STILL DOWNWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE WEAK UPSLOPE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS TAKE OVER. THE
PLAINS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS PROGGED ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THROUGH THE PERIODS...BUT THERE IS SOME
PROGGED AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE PLAINS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE GENERALLY FROM THE 0.30 TO 0.80 INCH RANGE THROUGHOUT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT READINGS RANGE FROM THE 20S F WEST TO
LOWER 50S F EAST THROUGH THE PERIODS. THERE IS TINY BIT OF CAPE
PROGGED OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
PROGGED MAINLY FOR THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
CONCERNING MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS...THERE ARE TINY
AMOUNTS PROGGED HERE AND THERE NOW AND THEN FROM THE VARIOUS
MODELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS VERY
INSIGNIFICANT. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH 0-10%S THROUGH THE PERIODS.
FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C COLDER THAN TODAY`S
EXPECTED READINGS. TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-5 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS HAVE
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IMMEDIATELY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO
ALL FOUR DAYS. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ALL FOUR
DAYS. MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ALSO SHOW UPSLOPE EAST OF THE DIVIDE FROM LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT
ACROSS THE DENVER AREA...POSSIBLY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS.
MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
SHIFT TO WEST WINDS AROUND 14Z...THEN NORTH WINDS PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS WITH CLEARING AFTER 00Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 310253 AAD
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
853 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS MOVING ACROSS NERN
CO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK RIDGING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN CO
AND THIS WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND THIS WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  OVERALL INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT WITH DRYING LOW
LEVELS FROM DENVER SOUTHWARD.  EXPECT MAINLY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WITH THE STORMS WITH BRIEF RAIN. AS THE SHOWERS PUSH EAST OVER THE
PLAINS...STORMS MAY GET A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE MOISTURE BY LATER THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASING AGAIN AS QG ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STRONG
90KT JET STREAK WHICH WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FOR THIS WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ALL NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AM. THE BEST ASCENT WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT AN
EARLIER START TIME WITH THE STORMS. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE STILL A
BIT ON THE LOW SIDE SO NOTHING TOO STRONG.  SHOULD SEE RAPID
CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROF SWEEPS
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. ALSO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN GUSTY W-NW WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS PLACE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG ON MONDAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DRIEST AND WARMEST DAYS
OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ZONAL WITH A BROAD RIDGE TO THE SOUTH PINCHING OFF THE
FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...AND A TROUGH WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT BY THURSDAY...WITH SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STARTING TO ADVECT BACK INTO COLORADO BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THIS TREND FOR COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES SLIDE
INTO NORTHEAST CO ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL
ALLOW FOR SHALLOW UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 851 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LAST BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
GUSTY WNW WINDS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DONE BY 04Z WITH
WINDS DECREASING AS WELL. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME DRAINAGE
BY 06Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 310253 AAD
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
853 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS MOVING ACROSS NERN
CO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK RIDGING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN CO
AND THIS WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND THIS WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  OVERALL INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT WITH DRYING LOW
LEVELS FROM DENVER SOUTHWARD.  EXPECT MAINLY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WITH THE STORMS WITH BRIEF RAIN. AS THE SHOWERS PUSH EAST OVER THE
PLAINS...STORMS MAY GET A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE MOISTURE BY LATER THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASING AGAIN AS QG ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STRONG
90KT JET STREAK WHICH WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FOR THIS WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ALL NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AM. THE BEST ASCENT WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT AN
EARLIER START TIME WITH THE STORMS. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE STILL A
BIT ON THE LOW SIDE SO NOTHING TOO STRONG.  SHOULD SEE RAPID
CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROF SWEEPS
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. ALSO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN GUSTY W-NW WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS PLACE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG ON MONDAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DRIEST AND WARMEST DAYS
OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ZONAL WITH A BROAD RIDGE TO THE SOUTH PINCHING OFF THE
FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...AND A TROUGH WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT BY THURSDAY...WITH SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STARTING TO ADVECT BACK INTO COLORADO BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THIS TREND FOR COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES SLIDE
INTO NORTHEAST CO ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL
ALLOW FOR SHALLOW UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 851 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LAST BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
GUSTY WNW WINDS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DONE BY 04Z WITH
WINDS DECREASING AS WELL. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME DRAINAGE
BY 06Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RPK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 302036
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
236 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK RIDGING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN CO
AND THIS WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND THIS WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  OVERALL INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT WITH DRYING LOW
LEVELS FROM DENVER SOUTHWARD.  EXPECT MAINLY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WITH THE STORMS WITH BRIEF RAIN. AS THE SHOWERS PUSH EAST OVER THE
PLAINS...STORMS MAY GET A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE MOISTURE BY LATER THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASING AGAIN AS QG ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STRONG
90KT JET STREAK WHICH WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FOR THIS WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ALL NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AM. THE BEST ASCENT WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT AN
EARLIER START TIME WITH THE STORMS. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE STILL A
BIT ON THE LOW SIDE SO NOTHING TOO STRONG.  SHOULD SEE RAPID
CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROF SWEEPS
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. ALSO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN GUSTY W-NW WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS PLACE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG ON MONDAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DRIEST AND WARMEST DAYS
OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ZONAL WITH A BROAD RIDGE TO THE SOUTH PINCHING OFF THE
FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...AND A TROUGH WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT BY THURSDAY...WITH SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STARTING TO ADVECT BACK INTO COLORADO BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THIS TREND FOR COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES SLIDE
INTO NORTHEAST CO ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL
ALLOW FOR SHALLOW UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

EXPECT MAIN IMPACT WITH THE SHOWERS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS BUT NOT A LOT OF RAIN WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE. EXPECT
BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MAIN TROF MOVES OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO. AGAIN MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH THE TROF WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS TERMINALS LATER
SUNDAY AM OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 302036
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
236 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK RIDGING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN CO
AND THIS WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND THIS WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  OVERALL INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT WITH DRYING LOW
LEVELS FROM DENVER SOUTHWARD.  EXPECT MAINLY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WITH THE STORMS WITH BRIEF RAIN. AS THE SHOWERS PUSH EAST OVER THE
PLAINS...STORMS MAY GET A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE MOISTURE BY LATER THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASING AGAIN AS QG ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STRONG
90KT JET STREAK WHICH WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FOR THIS WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ALL NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AM. THE BEST ASCENT WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT AN
EARLIER START TIME WITH THE STORMS. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE STILL A
BIT ON THE LOW SIDE SO NOTHING TOO STRONG.  SHOULD SEE RAPID
CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROF SWEEPS
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. ALSO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN GUSTY W-NW WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS PLACE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG ON MONDAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DRIEST AND WARMEST DAYS
OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ZONAL WITH A BROAD RIDGE TO THE SOUTH PINCHING OFF THE
FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...AND A TROUGH WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT BY THURSDAY...WITH SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STARTING TO ADVECT BACK INTO COLORADO BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THIS TREND FOR COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES SLIDE
INTO NORTHEAST CO ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL
ALLOW FOR SHALLOW UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

EXPECT MAIN IMPACT WITH THE SHOWERS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS BUT NOT A LOT OF RAIN WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE. EXPECT
BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MAIN TROF MOVES OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO. AGAIN MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH THE TROF WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS TERMINALS LATER
SUNDAY AM OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 301612
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1012 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING NEXT UPPER TROF OVER WESTERN GREAT
BASIN MOVING EAST. CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF THE
TROF OVER UTAH AND JUST NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO. EXPECT
THIS MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN COLORADO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING IN THE
MID/UPR LVLS WITH A SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL WITH THE LOW LEVEL DRYING WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
500-1000J/KG. EXPECT STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN STRENGTH
AS THEY MOVE OUT ON THE PLAINS WITH HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE WITH SCATTERED POPS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY 10-20 POPS OVER THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WARMER AIR ALOFT WITH MORE MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO COLORADO
FROM THE WEST TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN AT LOW LEVELS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL HELP WITH MIXING...SO DEW
POINTS SHOULD DROP IN AREAS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS LESS SO
NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER. AS A RESULT CAPES WILL BE LOW AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. HOWEVER
THE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP GENERATE A LITTLE
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY GIVEN AN ELEVATED NEUTRAL MOIST LAYER MOVING
OVER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS GIVEN THE DRYING LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...BUT STILL NEED TO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN
EVERYWHERE. WARMER FORECAST TEMPS LOOK GOOD. FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 60 ON THE PLAINS WITH MOST
OF THE CONVECTION ENDING IN THE EVENING. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIFT MAY
BE MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE FLOW ALOFT ON SUN WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS IN THE AFTN.  AFTN CAPES WILL RANGE FM 500-1000 J/KG SO WILL
SEE ANOTHER CHC OF QUICK MOVING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  AS FOR HIGHS A WEAK
PACIFIC FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO IN THE AFTN SO WILL KEEP HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 80S OVER
THE FAR ERN AREAS.

ON MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE WNW.  THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE AFFECTING NRN CO WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS IN THE AFTN
WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S OVER NERN CO.

FOR TUE AND WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY ZONAL WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE SHOWN SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY STORMS BOTH DAYS.  850-700 MB
TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AS READINGS MAY EXCEED 90 DEGREES OVER NERN CO ON WED.

BY THU THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AND CONTINUE THRU FRI.
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU AND LEAD TO
A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.  THE ECMWF SHOWS A COOL FNT MOVING INTO NERN
CO LATE THU INTO FRI WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW A FNT WHICH LEADS
TO A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN AFTN HIGHS BOTH DAYS.  FOR NOW WILL
KEEP HIGHS NEAR NORMAL ON THU AND THEN SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL FOR FRI.
AS FAR AS PCPN CHANCES ON FRI WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHC OF
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL FALL BETWEEN 23-02Z WITH MAIN THREAT
OF GUSTY WINDS TO 40KT WITH THE BRIEF SHOWERS AT TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOMING MORE VARIABLE 10KT OR LESS. INCREASING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL REMAINING VFR.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 301612
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1012 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING NEXT UPPER TROF OVER WESTERN GREAT
BASIN MOVING EAST. CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF THE
TROF OVER UTAH AND JUST NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO. EXPECT
THIS MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN COLORADO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING IN THE
MID/UPR LVLS WITH A SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL WITH THE LOW LEVEL DRYING WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
500-1000J/KG. EXPECT STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN STRENGTH
AS THEY MOVE OUT ON THE PLAINS WITH HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE WITH SCATTERED POPS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY 10-20 POPS OVER THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WARMER AIR ALOFT WITH MORE MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO COLORADO
FROM THE WEST TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN AT LOW LEVELS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL HELP WITH MIXING...SO DEW
POINTS SHOULD DROP IN AREAS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS LESS SO
NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER. AS A RESULT CAPES WILL BE LOW AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. HOWEVER
THE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP GENERATE A LITTLE
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY GIVEN AN ELEVATED NEUTRAL MOIST LAYER MOVING
OVER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS GIVEN THE DRYING LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...BUT STILL NEED TO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN
EVERYWHERE. WARMER FORECAST TEMPS LOOK GOOD. FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 60 ON THE PLAINS WITH MOST
OF THE CONVECTION ENDING IN THE EVENING. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIFT MAY
BE MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE FLOW ALOFT ON SUN WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS IN THE AFTN.  AFTN CAPES WILL RANGE FM 500-1000 J/KG SO WILL
SEE ANOTHER CHC OF QUICK MOVING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  AS FOR HIGHS A WEAK
PACIFIC FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO IN THE AFTN SO WILL KEEP HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 80S OVER
THE FAR ERN AREAS.

ON MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE WNW.  THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE AFFECTING NRN CO WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS IN THE AFTN
WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S OVER NERN CO.

FOR TUE AND WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY ZONAL WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE SHOWN SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY STORMS BOTH DAYS.  850-700 MB
TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AS READINGS MAY EXCEED 90 DEGREES OVER NERN CO ON WED.

BY THU THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AND CONTINUE THRU FRI.
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU AND LEAD TO
A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.  THE ECMWF SHOWS A COOL FNT MOVING INTO NERN
CO LATE THU INTO FRI WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW A FNT WHICH LEADS
TO A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN AFTN HIGHS BOTH DAYS.  FOR NOW WILL
KEEP HIGHS NEAR NORMAL ON THU AND THEN SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL FOR FRI.
AS FAR AS PCPN CHANCES ON FRI WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHC OF
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL FALL BETWEEN 23-02Z WITH MAIN THREAT
OF GUSTY WINDS TO 40KT WITH THE BRIEF SHOWERS AT TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOMING MORE VARIABLE 10KT OR LESS. INCREASING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL REMAINING VFR.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 301002
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WARMER AIR ALOFT WITH MORE MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO COLORADO
FROM THE WEST TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN AT LOW LEVELS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL HELP WITH MIXING...SO DEW
POINTS SHOULD DROP IN AREAS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS LESS SO
NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER. AS A RESULT CAPES WILL BE LOW AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. HOWEVER
THE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP GENERATE A LITTLE
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY GIVEN AN ELEVATED NEUTRAL MOIST LAYER MOVING
OVER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS GIVEN THE DRYING LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...BUT STILL NEED TO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN
EVERYWHERE. WARMER FORECAST TEMPS LOOK GOOD. FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 60 ON THE PLAINS WITH MOST
OF THE CONVECTION ENDING IN THE EVENING. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIFT MAY
BE MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE FLOW ALOFT ON SUN WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS IN THE AFTN.  AFTN CAPES WILL RANGE FM 500-1000 J/KG SO WILL
SEE ANOTHER CHC OF QUICK MOVING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  AS FOR HIGHS A WEAK
PACIFIC FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO IN THE AFTN SO WILL KEEP HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 80S OVER
THE FAR ERN AREAS.

ON MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE WNW.  THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE AFFECTING NRN CO WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS IN THE AFTN
WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S OVER NERN CO.

FOR TUE AND WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY ZONAL WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE SHOWN SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY STORMS BOTH DAYS.  850-700 MB
TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AS READINGS MAY EXCEED 90 DEGREES OVER NERN CO ON WED.

BY THU THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AND CONTINUE THRU FRI.
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU AND LEAD TO
A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.  THE ECMWF SHOWS A COOL FNT MOVING INTO NERN
CO LATE THU INTO FRI WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW A FNT WHICH LEADS
TO A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN AFTN HIGHS BOTH DAYS.  FOR NOW WILL
KEEP HIGHS NEAR NORMAL ON THU AND THEN SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL FOR FRI.
AS FAR AS PCPN CHANCES ON FRI WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHC OF
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF VARIABLE WINDS GUSTING TO
30 KNOTS FOR A SHORT TIME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 301002
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WARMER AIR ALOFT WITH MORE MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO COLORADO
FROM THE WEST TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN AT LOW LEVELS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL HELP WITH MIXING...SO DEW
POINTS SHOULD DROP IN AREAS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS LESS SO
NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER. AS A RESULT CAPES WILL BE LOW AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. HOWEVER
THE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP GENERATE A LITTLE
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY GIVEN AN ELEVATED NEUTRAL MOIST LAYER MOVING
OVER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS GIVEN THE DRYING LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...BUT STILL NEED TO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN
EVERYWHERE. WARMER FORECAST TEMPS LOOK GOOD. FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 60 ON THE PLAINS WITH MOST
OF THE CONVECTION ENDING IN THE EVENING. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIFT MAY
BE MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE FLOW ALOFT ON SUN WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS IN THE AFTN.  AFTN CAPES WILL RANGE FM 500-1000 J/KG SO WILL
SEE ANOTHER CHC OF QUICK MOVING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  AS FOR HIGHS A WEAK
PACIFIC FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO IN THE AFTN SO WILL KEEP HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 80S OVER
THE FAR ERN AREAS.

ON MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE WNW.  THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE AFFECTING NRN CO WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS IN THE AFTN
WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S OVER NERN CO.

FOR TUE AND WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY ZONAL WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE SHOWN SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY STORMS BOTH DAYS.  850-700 MB
TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AS READINGS MAY EXCEED 90 DEGREES OVER NERN CO ON WED.

BY THU THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AND CONTINUE THRU FRI.
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU AND LEAD TO
A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.  THE ECMWF SHOWS A COOL FNT MOVING INTO NERN
CO LATE THU INTO FRI WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW A FNT WHICH LEADS
TO A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN AFTN HIGHS BOTH DAYS.  FOR NOW WILL
KEEP HIGHS NEAR NORMAL ON THU AND THEN SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL FOR FRI.
AS FAR AS PCPN CHANCES ON FRI WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHC OF
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF VARIABLE WINDS GUSTING TO
30 KNOTS FOR A SHORT TIME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD





000
FXUS65 KBOU 300242
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
842 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN WELD AND
LARIMER COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WITH
CLEARING SKIES BY MIDNIGHT. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST HAD A PRETTY
GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVENING TRENDS...SO WILL UPDATE THE FORECASTS
WHEN THE SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END.

EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING ACROSS UTAH...NEVADA AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE
ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AGAIN
TOMORROW. WITH WARMER 700 MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST
TOMORROW...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON THE PLAINS LOOK TO BE A GOOD
FORECAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO ADD A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY TO THE MIX AS WELL. OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MAY ONCE AGAIN BE SUBJECT TO THE WEATHER THAT DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ALREADY SEEING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON LEADING EDGE OF
WEAK WAVE APPROACHING FROM WYOMING. EXPECT CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT
WHICH IS HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. NOTHING TO STRONG
BUT STILL COULD SEE HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END LATER THIS EVENING AND CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS UPPER AIR SUPPORT MOVES EAST WITH THE TROF.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS SOME
DRYING AND ADDITIONAL WARMING EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INITIAL
CONVECTION A BIT MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY AND MORE
CONFINED OVER MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN NEAR COLORADO. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS WHICH MAY LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODELS SHOW SOME SHALLOW UPSLOPE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE...SO WILL HAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING...CLEARING OUT THE
PRECIPITATION. EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WITH SOME 40S POSSIBLE.

WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL MONDAY. THE ECMWF AND
SOMEWHAT THE GFS SHOW A WAVE MOVING ACROSS WYOMING MONDAY. WILL PUT
LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY PUMP UP SOME MONSOON MOISTURE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL HAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 842 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WEATHER IMPACTS THE REST OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING
THE DENVER AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE FOOTHILLS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE DENVER METRO AREA. WILL
CARRY A PROB30 OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3 PM TO 6 PM. BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 300242
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
842 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN WELD AND
LARIMER COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WITH
CLEARING SKIES BY MIDNIGHT. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST HAD A PRETTY
GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVENING TRENDS...SO WILL UPDATE THE FORECASTS
WHEN THE SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END.

EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING ACROSS UTAH...NEVADA AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE
ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AGAIN
TOMORROW. WITH WARMER 700 MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST
TOMORROW...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON THE PLAINS LOOK TO BE A GOOD
FORECAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO ADD A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY TO THE MIX AS WELL. OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MAY ONCE AGAIN BE SUBJECT TO THE WEATHER THAT DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ALREADY SEEING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON LEADING EDGE OF
WEAK WAVE APPROACHING FROM WYOMING. EXPECT CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT
WHICH IS HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. NOTHING TO STRONG
BUT STILL COULD SEE HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END LATER THIS EVENING AND CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS UPPER AIR SUPPORT MOVES EAST WITH THE TROF.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS SOME
DRYING AND ADDITIONAL WARMING EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INITIAL
CONVECTION A BIT MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY AND MORE
CONFINED OVER MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN NEAR COLORADO. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS WHICH MAY LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODELS SHOW SOME SHALLOW UPSLOPE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE...SO WILL HAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING...CLEARING OUT THE
PRECIPITATION. EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WITH SOME 40S POSSIBLE.

WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL MONDAY. THE ECMWF AND
SOMEWHAT THE GFS SHOW A WAVE MOVING ACROSS WYOMING MONDAY. WILL PUT
LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY PUMP UP SOME MONSOON MOISTURE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL HAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 842 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WEATHER IMPACTS THE REST OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING
THE DENVER AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE FOOTHILLS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE DENVER METRO AREA. WILL
CARRY A PROB30 OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3 PM TO 6 PM. BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...DANKERS





000
FXUS65 KBOU 292034
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
234 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ALREADY SEEING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON LEADING EDGE OF
WEAK WAVE APPROACHING FROM WYOMING. EXPECT CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT
WHICH IS HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. NOTHING TO STRONG
BUT STILL COULD SEE HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END LATER THIS EVENING AND CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS UPPER AIR SUPPORT MOVES EAST WITH THE TROF.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS SOME
DRYING AND ADDITIONAL WARMING EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INITIAL
CONVECTION A BIT MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY AND MORE
CONFINED OVER MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN NEAR COLORADO. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS WHICH MAY LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODELS SHOW SOME SHALLOW UPSLOPE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE...SO WILL HAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING...CLEARING OUT THE
PRECIPITATION. EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WITH SOME 40S POSSIBLE.

WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL MONDAY. THE ECMWF AND
SOMEWHAT THE GFS SHOW A WAVE MOVING ACROSS WYOMING MONDAY. WILL PUT
LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY PUMP UP SOME MONSOON MOISTURE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL HAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THRU EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
CLEARING SKIES WITH BRIEF RAIN AND ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS TO
30KT. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE TURNING EAST AND SOUTH THIS EVENING THEN BACK TO DRAINAGE
BY LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 292034
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
234 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ALREADY SEEING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON LEADING EDGE OF
WEAK WAVE APPROACHING FROM WYOMING. EXPECT CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT
WHICH IS HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. NOTHING TO STRONG
BUT STILL COULD SEE HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END LATER THIS EVENING AND CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS UPPER AIR SUPPORT MOVES EAST WITH THE TROF.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS SOME
DRYING AND ADDITIONAL WARMING EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INITIAL
CONVECTION A BIT MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY AND MORE
CONFINED OVER MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN NEAR COLORADO. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS WHICH MAY LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODELS SHOW SOME SHALLOW UPSLOPE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE...SO WILL HAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING...CLEARING OUT THE
PRECIPITATION. EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WITH SOME 40S POSSIBLE.

WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL MONDAY. THE ECMWF AND
SOMEWHAT THE GFS SHOW A WAVE MOVING ACROSS WYOMING MONDAY. WILL PUT
LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY PUMP UP SOME MONSOON MOISTURE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL HAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THRU EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
CLEARING SKIES WITH BRIEF RAIN AND ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS TO
30KT. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE TURNING EAST AND SOUTH THIS EVENING THEN BACK TO DRAINAGE
BY LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 291544
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
944 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THERE WAS QUITE A BIT OF DRYNESS AND STABILIZATION OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRUSH NORTHERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
VALUES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH AT
THIS TIME BUT TRENDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER PAST FEW
HOURS. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS ALSO HAVE COOLING ALOFT AT 500MB AND
THIS COOLING WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES UP TO AROUND
800J/KG. EXPECT BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS. MAYBE
SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
CURRENT FORECASTS WITH A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND IN POPS AND AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

DECENT QUASIGEOSTROPHIC SUBSIDENCE PRESENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES...CHANGING SIGN IN ALL
BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THIS SUBSIDENCE AND MODEST
DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAVE TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON PRECIPITABLE WATER EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS GPS SENSORS ARE MEASURING ROUGHLY A THIRD OF AN
INCH LESS WATER THAN WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AT THIS HOUR. DESPITE
THIS CURRENT DRYING TREND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUD UPSTREAM FROM US IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH SUPPORTS THE
MODEL FORECASTS OF INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY
NUMBERS AND GENERATION OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER MOST
AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH FORECAST CAPE
VALUES REMAINING RATHER TAME EXPECT MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN ALL
AREAS SHOULD BE WARMER TODAY. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR FOR THE
MOST PART OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH CIRA-GENERATED SYNTHETIC SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
WESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA TOWARDS 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TO THE NORTHERN/
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...WITH ITS AXIS PASSING OVER IDAHO AND NEVADA
LATE ON SATURDAY. THIS PLACES COLORADO UNDER A WARM...RELATIVELY
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND INTO THE VERY MILD 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE HIGH
COUNTRY. EVEN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO FALL...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND WET SOILS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME OF THIS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
DRIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS BY EVENING...WITH MOST OF IT ONLY
PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHT RAINFALL BASED ON THE
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS. STORMS SHOULD LET UP BY
MID-EVENING EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA
WHERE MODELS SHOW A RIBBON OF HIGH DEWPOINTS BEING MOVED ALONG BY
GUSTY SLY WINDS ALONG A STALLED OUT SFC TROUGH. THEREFORE MAY SEE
A STRAY STORM OR TWO LINGER BEYOND MIDNIGHT OUT THAT WAY. ON
SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS
COLORADO DURING THE DAY WITH QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES INCREASING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. QG VV VALUES APPEAR SOMEWHAT STRONGER
ON THE SLOWER NAM COMPARED TO THE GFS. AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND
TROUGH AXIS PASS...MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE PRECIP BREAKING OUT...
FIRST IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING. CONVECTION
APPEARS MORE DEVELOPED AND WIDESPREAD ON THE NAM...ESPLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD AND WITH PRESSURE FALLS ON THE
PLAINS...MODELS SHOW GUSTY W-NWLY WINDS DVLPG OVER AND ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS LIKELY TO SAP MUCH OF THE
ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE MTNS
AS INDICATED BY THE GFS...EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS. WHEREAS
THE NAM SHOWS A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION/STORMS TIED TO
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND A SFC FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING OUT ACROSS
THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE FACT ALL
FOUR MODELS SHOW A GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW DVLPG EAST OF THE
MTNS...AM LEANING TOWARDS THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS. AND WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION COULD SEE TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT NOT LONG AFTER
MIDDAY. STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT AND/OR DISSIPATE BY EVENING.

THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STARTS OUT WITH A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS AND A DRY ZONAL FLOW
OVER COLORADO. TEMPERATURES START OUT NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON
MONDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS THE RIDGE
MIGRATES INLAND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE AND THE CHANCE OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LOW AND
LARGELY CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE START OF ANOTHER CYCLE OF MONSOON
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SRN AND CNTRL ROCKY MTN REGION AS MODELS
SHOW A TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM EXITING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
TRACKING ACROSS THE NRN HIGHLANDS OF MEXICO. HOWEVER THE EFFECTS
OF THIS NEW SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY NOT BE FELT AROUND
HERE UNTIL FRIDAY OR SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 940 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO UPCOMING 18Z TAFS WITH STILL BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS
BEYOND 00Z BUT COVERAGE NOT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE POPS. SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST LATER THIS AM AND THEN MORE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




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