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000
FXUS65 KBOU 291713
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1013 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWA RIGHT NOW. THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION
FALLING RIGHT NOW. THE SURFACE WINDS ARE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE PLAINS HAVE WEAK UPSLOPE GOING
ON OVER MOST AREAS. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY AND WINDS.
NO POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW CONTINUES NR A FORT
COLLINS TO GREELEY TO FORT MORGAN LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS
AREA APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG WITH
SOME POTENTIAL VORTICITY.  APPEARS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL END
AROUND SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE UP TO
AROUND 600 MB OVER THE AREA WHICH HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MTNS.

FOR THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SWLY.  SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY AFFECT THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PRODUCE A CHC OF
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70. OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE DRY THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTN HOURS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE
PLAINS AS HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER NERN CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS STILL SURROUND SNOW CHANCES AHEAD OF SLOW
MOVING SOUTHWEST TROUGH.

ON FRIDAY...WE STILL EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD DAY DESPITE THE
INCREASE AND THICKENING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
IN PLACE...BUT MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE RIDGE. ENOUGH MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON FOR A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SPOTTY
AND MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS. ON THE PLAINS...THERE IS A WEAK COLD
FRONT ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. AS A RESULT...A
WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOPS WHICH COULD ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO
SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS BY EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

PERSISTENT BUT WEAK Q-G VERTICAL MOTION EXISTS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SATURDAY BUT AT THE SAME TIME THERE IS VERY
LITTLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING. THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT ALONG
WITH WEAK Q-G LIFT WOULD RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS FOR SATURDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE AND FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION THAT COULD
PRESENT ITSELF IN BANDED PRECIP...BUT OVERALL DONT ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING MECHANISMS. IT SHOULD CERTAINLY BE NOTED THE ECMWF AND
EVEN A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS WHOLE
SETUP...WHICH COULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SHIFTING AWAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SHEARED SOUTHEAST BY
FAST APPROACHING NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A
DRY FORECAST IN PLACE SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF NORTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY IS STRONGER...AND WE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH IS
ALWAYS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
LIKELY DOMINATE RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS TO
THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS. MONDAY SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY WINDY BUT WARMER DAY ON THE PLAINS WITH STRONGEST
DOWNSLOPE NOTED BY MODEL ENSEMBLES. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD
FEATURE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ARRIVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS ALL
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN EXPECTATION FOR NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 946 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH 19-20Z...THEN
DECREASE. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP SOME
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THEM UNTIL DRAINAGE BY MID/LATE EVENING
TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RJK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 291022
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW CONTINUES NR A FORT
COLLINS TO GREELEY TO FORT MORGAN LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS
AREA APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG WITH
SOME POTENTIAL VORTICITY.  APPEARS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL END
AROUND SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE UP TO
AROUND 600 MB OVER THE AREA WHICH HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MTNS.

FOR THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SWLY.  SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY AFFECT THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PRODUCE A CHC OF
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70. OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE DRY THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTN HOURS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE
PLAINS AS HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER NERN CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS STILL SURROUND SNOW CHANCES AHEAD OF SLOW
MOVING SOUTHWEST TROUGH.

ON FRIDAY...WE STILL EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD DAY DESPITE THE
INCREASE AND THICKENING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
IN PLACE...BUT MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE RIDGE. ENOUGH MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON FOR A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SPOTTY
AND MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS. ON THE PLAINS...THERE IS A WEAK COLD
FRONT ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. AS A RESULT...A
WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOPS WHICH COULD ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO
SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS BY EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

PERSISTENT BUT WEAK Q-G VERTICAL MOTION EXISTS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SATURDAY BUT AT THE SAME TIME THERE IS VERY
LITTLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING. THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT ALONG
WITH WEAK Q-G LIFT WOULD RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS FOR SATURDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE AND FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION THAT COULD
PRESENT ITSELF IN BANDED PRECIP...BUT OVERALL DONT ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING MECHANISMS. IT SHOULD CERTAINLY BE NOTED THE ECMWF AND
EVEN A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS WHOLE
SETUP...WHICH COULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SHIFTING AWAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SHEARED SOUTHEAST BY
FAST APPROACHING NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A
DRY FORECAST IN PLACE SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF NORTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY IS STRONGER...AND WE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH IS
ALWAYS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
LIKELY DOMINATE RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS TO
THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS. MONDAY SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY WINDY BUT WARMER DAY ON THE PLAINS WITH STRONGEST
DOWNSLOPE NOTED BY MODEL ENSEMBLES. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD
FEATURE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ARRIVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS ALL
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN EXPECTATION FOR NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 5500-7000 FT MAY LINGER THRU 18Z BEFORE
DECREASING BY MID AFTN...OTHERWISE APPEARS ANY LIGHT PCPN EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL STAY NORTH OF DIA.  WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE HAD A
LIGHT WNW COMPONENT.  BY 15Z WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT ELY AND THEN
MORE SELY BY 20Z.  FOR THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME SLY AND REMAIN
SO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RPK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 291022
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW CONTINUES NR A FORT
COLLINS TO GREELEY TO FORT MORGAN LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS
AREA APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG WITH
SOME POTENTIAL VORTICITY.  APPEARS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL END
AROUND SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE UP TO
AROUND 600 MB OVER THE AREA WHICH HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MTNS.

FOR THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SWLY.  SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY AFFECT THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PRODUCE A CHC OF
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70. OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE DRY THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTN HOURS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE
PLAINS AS HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER NERN CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS STILL SURROUND SNOW CHANCES AHEAD OF SLOW
MOVING SOUTHWEST TROUGH.

ON FRIDAY...WE STILL EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD DAY DESPITE THE
INCREASE AND THICKENING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
IN PLACE...BUT MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE RIDGE. ENOUGH MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON FOR A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SPOTTY
AND MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS. ON THE PLAINS...THERE IS A WEAK COLD
FRONT ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. AS A RESULT...A
WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOPS WHICH COULD ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO
SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS BY EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

PERSISTENT BUT WEAK Q-G VERTICAL MOTION EXISTS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SATURDAY BUT AT THE SAME TIME THERE IS VERY
LITTLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING. THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT ALONG
WITH WEAK Q-G LIFT WOULD RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS FOR SATURDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE AND FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION THAT COULD
PRESENT ITSELF IN BANDED PRECIP...BUT OVERALL DONT ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING MECHANISMS. IT SHOULD CERTAINLY BE NOTED THE ECMWF AND
EVEN A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS WHOLE
SETUP...WHICH COULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SHIFTING AWAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SHEARED SOUTHEAST BY
FAST APPROACHING NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A
DRY FORECAST IN PLACE SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF NORTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY IS STRONGER...AND WE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH IS
ALWAYS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
LIKELY DOMINATE RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS TO
THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS. MONDAY SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY WINDY BUT WARMER DAY ON THE PLAINS WITH STRONGEST
DOWNSLOPE NOTED BY MODEL ENSEMBLES. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD
FEATURE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ARRIVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS ALL
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN EXPECTATION FOR NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 5500-7000 FT MAY LINGER THRU 18Z BEFORE
DECREASING BY MID AFTN...OTHERWISE APPEARS ANY LIGHT PCPN EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL STAY NORTH OF DIA.  WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE HAD A
LIGHT WNW COMPONENT.  BY 15Z WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT ELY AND THEN
MORE SELY BY 20Z.  FOR THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME SLY AND REMAIN
SO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 290356
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
856 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 843 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

RUC/NAM SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS STILL SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE SETTLING INTO THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT SO
UPPER THE SKY COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO ADDED SLGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER...NORTHEAST LARIMER AND NORTHERN WELD
COUNTY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE EAST OF
THE STATE BY FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO PUSH SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA AS THE WEEK ENDS. STEADY BUT WEAK QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL COVER MOST OF THE CWA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
WEAK WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW AND THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/UPSLOPE THAT WOULD HELP PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS.
CONSEQUENTLY THE LOWLAND POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED A BIT. WITH THE
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT OROGRAPHICS WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS SO
WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS BUT NOTHING TREMENDOUS IN THE QPF
DEPARTMENT UP THERE.

THE TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO HEAD WELL SOUTH OF US BY SUNDAY
ALLOWING THE NORTHERN BRANCH TO BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINDY PERIOD TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS
...MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. THE WINDS MAY PUSH
ONTO THE PLAINS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING
MONDAY NIGHT TO BE THE WINDIEST ALONG THE LEE SLOPES. SOME HINT OF
A MOIST DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE ZONES NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 843 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SELY WINDS AT KDEN AT THIS TIME...BUT WINDS NNE GUSTING TO 25 KTS
AT KGXY AND KFNL...SO COULD SEE WINDS SHIFT FM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BY 05Z. AS A RESULT...WL NEED TO UPDATE KDEN TO SOME
STRONGER NELY WINDS AT THAT TIME. WITH STRONGER UPSLOPE PUSH...LOW
AND MID LEVEL BKN CIGS THAT DEVELOP COULD STICK AROUND THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE ILS CIGS IN THE 040-060FT AGL
CATEGORY. HAVE ALREADY PUT THIS IN THE KDEN TAF THROUGH 16Z AND WL
LIKELY DO SO FOR KBJC AND KAPA AS WELL...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC
OF MVFR CIGS RESTRICTION DEVELOPING IN THE 09Z-15Z WINDOW. WL
CONSIDER THIS FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...COOPER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 290356
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
856 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 843 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

RUC/NAM SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS STILL SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE SETTLING INTO THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT SO
UPPER THE SKY COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO ADDED SLGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER...NORTHEAST LARIMER AND NORTHERN WELD
COUNTY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE EAST OF
THE STATE BY FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO PUSH SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA AS THE WEEK ENDS. STEADY BUT WEAK QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL COVER MOST OF THE CWA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
WEAK WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW AND THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/UPSLOPE THAT WOULD HELP PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS.
CONSEQUENTLY THE LOWLAND POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED A BIT. WITH THE
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT OROGRAPHICS WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS SO
WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS BUT NOTHING TREMENDOUS IN THE QPF
DEPARTMENT UP THERE.

THE TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO HEAD WELL SOUTH OF US BY SUNDAY
ALLOWING THE NORTHERN BRANCH TO BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINDY PERIOD TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS
...MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. THE WINDS MAY PUSH
ONTO THE PLAINS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING
MONDAY NIGHT TO BE THE WINDIEST ALONG THE LEE SLOPES. SOME HINT OF
A MOIST DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE ZONES NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 843 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SELY WINDS AT KDEN AT THIS TIME...BUT WINDS NNE GUSTING TO 25 KTS
AT KGXY AND KFNL...SO COULD SEE WINDS SHIFT FM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BY 05Z. AS A RESULT...WL NEED TO UPDATE KDEN TO SOME
STRONGER NELY WINDS AT THAT TIME. WITH STRONGER UPSLOPE PUSH...LOW
AND MID LEVEL BKN CIGS THAT DEVELOP COULD STICK AROUND THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE ILS CIGS IN THE 040-060FT AGL
CATEGORY. HAVE ALREADY PUT THIS IN THE KDEN TAF THROUGH 16Z AND WL
LIKELY DO SO FOR KBJC AND KAPA AS WELL...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC
OF MVFR CIGS RESTRICTION DEVELOPING IN THE 09Z-15Z WINDOW. WL
CONSIDER THIS FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 282225
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
325 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ARE COVERING ALL OF THE CWA RIGHT NOW.
SPEEDS ARE 15 TO 35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE RADAR
HAS SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE MAY
EVEN BE A RAIN SHOWER OVER NORTHERN WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES.
MODELS HAVE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SPEEDS ARE PROGGED TO BE 75 TO 110 KNOTS BOTH PERIODS.
THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS KEEP DOWNWARD ENERGY OVER THE CWA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY.
FOR MOISTURE...MODELS HAVE SOME IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. IT`S NOT VERY DEEP...AND OVER THE
PLAINS IT IS MOSTLY UP OFF THE SURFACE. THURSDAY DRIES OUT SOME.
THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT...THEN EVEN LESS IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.  FOR POPS WILL GO WITH "CHANCE"S IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASE THEM OVERNIGHT. NO POPS ON
THURSDAY. NO POPS FOR THE PLAINS TONIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...
THURSDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 3-6 C COOLER THAN THIS AFTERNOON`S
HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE EAST OF
THE STATE BY FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO PUSH SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA AS THE WEEK ENDS. STEADY BUT WEAK QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL COVER MOST OF THE CWA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
WEAK WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW AND THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/UPSLOPE THAT WOULD HELP PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS.
CONSEQUENTLY THE LOWLAND POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED A BIT. WITH THE
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT OROGRAPHICS WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS SO
WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS BUT NOTHING TREMENDOUS IN THE QPF
DEPARTMENT UP THERE.

THE TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO HEAD WELL SOUTH OF US BY SUNDAY
ALLOWING THE NORTHERN BRANCH TO BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINDY PERIOD TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS
...MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. THE WINDS MAY PUSH
ONTO THE PLAINS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING
MONDAY NIGHT TO BE THE WINDIEST ALONG THE LEE SLOPES. SOME HINT OF
A MOIST DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE ZONES NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THE WINDS AT DIA ARE DUE NORTH NOW AT SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 KNOT
RANGE. THEY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID EVENING. THEY WILL DECREASE
IN SPEED BUT LIKELY STAY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY ALL NIGHT. NOT
SURE ANY MORE ABOUT SCT-BKN LOWER CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. AM LEANING
AGAINST IT NOW...SO NO CEILING ISSUES AT DIA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 282225
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
325 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ARE COVERING ALL OF THE CWA RIGHT NOW.
SPEEDS ARE 15 TO 35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE RADAR
HAS SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE MAY
EVEN BE A RAIN SHOWER OVER NORTHERN WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES.
MODELS HAVE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SPEEDS ARE PROGGED TO BE 75 TO 110 KNOTS BOTH PERIODS.
THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS KEEP DOWNWARD ENERGY OVER THE CWA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY.
FOR MOISTURE...MODELS HAVE SOME IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. IT`S NOT VERY DEEP...AND OVER THE
PLAINS IT IS MOSTLY UP OFF THE SURFACE. THURSDAY DRIES OUT SOME.
THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT...THEN EVEN LESS IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.  FOR POPS WILL GO WITH "CHANCE"S IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASE THEM OVERNIGHT. NO POPS ON
THURSDAY. NO POPS FOR THE PLAINS TONIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...
THURSDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 3-6 C COOLER THAN THIS AFTERNOON`S
HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE EAST OF
THE STATE BY FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO PUSH SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA AS THE WEEK ENDS. STEADY BUT WEAK QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL COVER MOST OF THE CWA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
WEAK WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW AND THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/UPSLOPE THAT WOULD HELP PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS.
CONSEQUENTLY THE LOWLAND POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED A BIT. WITH THE
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT OROGRAPHICS WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS SO
WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS BUT NOTHING TREMENDOUS IN THE QPF
DEPARTMENT UP THERE.

THE TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO HEAD WELL SOUTH OF US BY SUNDAY
ALLOWING THE NORTHERN BRANCH TO BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINDY PERIOD TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS
...MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. THE WINDS MAY PUSH
ONTO THE PLAINS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING
MONDAY NIGHT TO BE THE WINDIEST ALONG THE LEE SLOPES. SOME HINT OF
A MOIST DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE ZONES NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THE WINDS AT DIA ARE DUE NORTH NOW AT SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 KNOT
RANGE. THEY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID EVENING. THEY WILL DECREASE
IN SPEED BUT LIKELY STAY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY ALL NIGHT. NOT
SURE ANY MORE ABOUT SCT-BKN LOWER CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. AM LEANING
AGAINST IT NOW...SO NO CEILING ISSUES AT DIA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...RJK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 281741
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1041 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

A BATCH OF CLOUDINESS IS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
CWA RIGHT NOW IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE RECENT
WEAK UPPER TROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PRETTY UNIFORM ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME...NORTHWESTERLY UP TO 35 MPH FOR THE
PLAINS AND BIT HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE RADAR
WAS SHOWING SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN AND AROUND THE DIVIDE. WILL MAKE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON REAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. WILL CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
BIT HIGHER IN ZONE 31 WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES BY
LATER THIS EVENING. AS THE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...INCREASING
SUBSIDENT FLOW BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE THE WINDS ON
THE PLAINS AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT AS AIRMASS
DECOUPLES AND STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO.

INITIALLY EARLY THIS MORNING...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. HAVE NOTED SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN
WIND PRONE AREAS AS 88D STILL SHOWING NICE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS
WESTERN BOULDER COUNTY.  CROSS SECTIONS SHOW WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE BY MID MORNING AS MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSIONS DISSIPATE AND
LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM
WYOMING TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING. MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW SO DON`T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS ON THE PLAINS BUT COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THU AS SFC HIGH
PRES OVER ERN CO SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THU NIGHT.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MTNS THRU THE AFTN SO
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.  EAST
OF THE MTNS OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING CLOUDS WILL KEEP FCST DRY.
HIGHS ON THU WILL FINALLY DROP BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE
PLAINS.

ON FRI AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
SWRN US WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT.  SATELLITE SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SW OF THE BAJA AREA WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MARGINAL WITH ONLY
WK MID LVL ASCENT.  THUS ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT IN THE MTNS WITH THE
BEST CHC MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70.  OVER NERN CO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS IT WILL BE DRY THRU THE AFTN
HOURS.  AS FAR AS TEMPS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HIGHS MAY STAY
SIMILAR TO THU DESPITE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB
LYR.

FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SWRN US WILL
STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FM
THE NW. BOTH THE  ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO NERN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITH WK UPSLOPE FLOW.
MEANWHILE AT THE SAME TIME WK MID LVL ASCENT IS FCST ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STABLE. OVERALL WILL KEEP IN
A GOOD CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MTNS WITH A CHC OF LIGHT PCPN OVER
NERN CO. WET BULB ZEROS BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL MAINLY
AS SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER NERN CO.

BY SAT EVENING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NERN CO
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.  THUS
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  IN
THE MTNS OROGRAPHICS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE SAT EVENING AS THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY.  IN ADDITION LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE AS WELL SO SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW.

ON SUN DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN INCREASING NWLY FLOW
ALOFT.  APPEARS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE MTNS FOR A SLIGHT
CHC OF -SHSN.  OVER NERN CO WILL KEEP FCST DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S.

FOR MON AND TUE RATHER STG WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW PERIODS OF MOISTURE AFFECTING THE MTNS BOTH DAYS
WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT THRU TUE.  THUS THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF SNOW.  AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NR THE FOOTHILLS ON MON
WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
DRY OVER NERN CO ON MON WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE FAR NERN
CORNER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE SETTLED ONCE AND
FOR ALL IN AT DIA. MAXIMUM GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 30 KNOTS. THERE
SHOULDN`T BE ANY CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 281741
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1041 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

A BATCH OF CLOUDINESS IS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
CWA RIGHT NOW IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE RECENT
WEAK UPPER TROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PRETTY UNIFORM ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME...NORTHWESTERLY UP TO 35 MPH FOR THE
PLAINS AND BIT HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE RADAR
WAS SHOWING SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN AND AROUND THE DIVIDE. WILL MAKE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON REAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. WILL CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
BIT HIGHER IN ZONE 31 WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES BY
LATER THIS EVENING. AS THE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...INCREASING
SUBSIDENT FLOW BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE THE WINDS ON
THE PLAINS AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT AS AIRMASS
DECOUPLES AND STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO.

INITIALLY EARLY THIS MORNING...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. HAVE NOTED SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN
WIND PRONE AREAS AS 88D STILL SHOWING NICE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS
WESTERN BOULDER COUNTY.  CROSS SECTIONS SHOW WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE BY MID MORNING AS MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSIONS DISSIPATE AND
LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM
WYOMING TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING. MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW SO DON`T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS ON THE PLAINS BUT COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THU AS SFC HIGH
PRES OVER ERN CO SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THU NIGHT.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MTNS THRU THE AFTN SO
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.  EAST
OF THE MTNS OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING CLOUDS WILL KEEP FCST DRY.
HIGHS ON THU WILL FINALLY DROP BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE
PLAINS.

ON FRI AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
SWRN US WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT.  SATELLITE SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SW OF THE BAJA AREA WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MARGINAL WITH ONLY
WK MID LVL ASCENT.  THUS ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT IN THE MTNS WITH THE
BEST CHC MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70.  OVER NERN CO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS IT WILL BE DRY THRU THE AFTN
HOURS.  AS FAR AS TEMPS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HIGHS MAY STAY
SIMILAR TO THU DESPITE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB
LYR.

FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SWRN US WILL
STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FM
THE NW. BOTH THE  ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO NERN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITH WK UPSLOPE FLOW.
MEANWHILE AT THE SAME TIME WK MID LVL ASCENT IS FCST ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STABLE. OVERALL WILL KEEP IN
A GOOD CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MTNS WITH A CHC OF LIGHT PCPN OVER
NERN CO. WET BULB ZEROS BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL MAINLY
AS SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER NERN CO.

BY SAT EVENING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NERN CO
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.  THUS
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  IN
THE MTNS OROGRAPHICS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE SAT EVENING AS THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY.  IN ADDITION LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE AS WELL SO SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW.

ON SUN DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN INCREASING NWLY FLOW
ALOFT.  APPEARS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE MTNS FOR A SLIGHT
CHC OF -SHSN.  OVER NERN CO WILL KEEP FCST DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S.

FOR MON AND TUE RATHER STG WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW PERIODS OF MOISTURE AFFECTING THE MTNS BOTH DAYS
WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT THRU TUE.  THUS THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF SNOW.  AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NR THE FOOTHILLS ON MON
WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
DRY OVER NERN CO ON MON WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE FAR NERN
CORNER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE SETTLED ONCE AND
FOR ALL IN AT DIA. MAXIMUM GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 30 KNOTS. THERE
SHOULDN`T BE ANY CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...RJK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 281014
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
314 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. WILL CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
BIT HIGHER IN ZONE 31 WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES BY
LATER THIS EVENING. AS THE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...INCREASING
SUBSIDENT FLOW BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE THE WINDS ON
THE PLAINS AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT AS AIRMASS
DECOUPLES AND STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO.

INITIALLY EARLY THIS MORNING...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. HAVE NOTED SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN
WIND PRONE AREAS AS 88D STILL SHOWING NICE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS
WESTERN BOULDER COUNTY.  CROSS SECTIONS SHOW WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE BY MID MORNING AS MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSIONS DISSIPATE AND
LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM
WYOMING TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING. MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW SO DON`T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS ON THE PLAINS BUT COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THU AS SFC HIGH
PRES OVER ERN CO SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THU NIGHT.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MTNS THRU THE AFTN SO
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.  EAST
OF THE MTNS OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING CLOUDS WILL KEEP FCST DRY.
HIGHS ON THU WILL FINALLY DROP BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE
PLAINS.

ON FRI AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
SWRN US WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT.  SATELLITE SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SW OF THE BAJA AREA WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MARGINAL WITH ONLY
WK MID LVL ASCENT.  THUS ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT IN THE MTNS WITH THE
BEST CHC MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70.  OVER NERN CO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS IT WILL BE DRY THRU THE AFTN
HOURS.  AS FAR AS TEMPS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HIGHS MAY STAY
SIMILAR TO THU DESPITE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB
LYR.

FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SWRN US WILL
STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FM
THE NW. BOTH THE  ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO NERN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITH WK UPSLOPE FLOW.
MEANWHILE AT THE SAME TIME WK MID LVL ASCENT IS FCST ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STABLE. OVERALL WILL KEEP IN
A GOOD CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MTNS WITH A CHC OF LIGHT PCPN OVER
NERN CO. WET BULB ZEROS BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL MAINLY
AS SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER NERN CO.

BY SAT EVENING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NERN CO
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.  THUS
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  IN
THE MTNS OROGRAPHICS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE SAT EVENING AS THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY.  IN ADDITION LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE AS WELL SO SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW.

ON SUN DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN INCREASING NWLY FLOW
ALOFT.  APPEARS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE MTNS FOR A SLIGHT
CHC OF -SHSN.  OVER NERN CO WILL KEEP FCST DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S.

FOR MON AND TUE RATHER STG WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW PERIODS OF MOISTURE AFFECTING THE MTNS BOTH DAYS
WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT THRU TUE.  THUS THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF SNOW.  AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NR THE FOOTHILLS ON MON
WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
DRY OVER NERN CO ON MON WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE FAR NERN
CORNER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT BJC THROUGH EARLY THIS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35KT. WINDS AT KDEN/KAPA WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS AM
THEN TURN NORTHWEST AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY
ADJUSTED DEN TAF FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
INCREASE A BIT MORE IN 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. MAINLY MID-HI LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TODAY. WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEAST FOR A TIME TONIGHT WHICH
MAY DEVELOP A HIGH STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT. DECK SEEMS SHALLOW
SO NO MENTION OF ANY PRECIP.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 281014
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
314 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. WILL CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
BIT HIGHER IN ZONE 31 WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES BY
LATER THIS EVENING. AS THE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...INCREASING
SUBSIDENT FLOW BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE THE WINDS ON
THE PLAINS AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT AS AIRMASS
DECOUPLES AND STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO.

INITIALLY EARLY THIS MORNING...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. HAVE NOTED SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN
WIND PRONE AREAS AS 88D STILL SHOWING NICE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS
WESTERN BOULDER COUNTY.  CROSS SECTIONS SHOW WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE BY MID MORNING AS MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSIONS DISSIPATE AND
LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM
WYOMING TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING. MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW SO DON`T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS ON THE PLAINS BUT COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THU AS SFC HIGH
PRES OVER ERN CO SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THU NIGHT.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MTNS THRU THE AFTN SO
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.  EAST
OF THE MTNS OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING CLOUDS WILL KEEP FCST DRY.
HIGHS ON THU WILL FINALLY DROP BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE
PLAINS.

ON FRI AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
SWRN US WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT.  SATELLITE SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SW OF THE BAJA AREA WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MARGINAL WITH ONLY
WK MID LVL ASCENT.  THUS ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT IN THE MTNS WITH THE
BEST CHC MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70.  OVER NERN CO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS IT WILL BE DRY THRU THE AFTN
HOURS.  AS FAR AS TEMPS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HIGHS MAY STAY
SIMILAR TO THU DESPITE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB
LYR.

FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SWRN US WILL
STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FM
THE NW. BOTH THE  ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO NERN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITH WK UPSLOPE FLOW.
MEANWHILE AT THE SAME TIME WK MID LVL ASCENT IS FCST ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STABLE. OVERALL WILL KEEP IN
A GOOD CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MTNS WITH A CHC OF LIGHT PCPN OVER
NERN CO. WET BULB ZEROS BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL MAINLY
AS SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER NERN CO.

BY SAT EVENING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NERN CO
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.  THUS
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  IN
THE MTNS OROGRAPHICS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE SAT EVENING AS THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY.  IN ADDITION LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE AS WELL SO SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW.

ON SUN DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN INCREASING NWLY FLOW
ALOFT.  APPEARS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE MTNS FOR A SLIGHT
CHC OF -SHSN.  OVER NERN CO WILL KEEP FCST DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S.

FOR MON AND TUE RATHER STG WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW PERIODS OF MOISTURE AFFECTING THE MTNS BOTH DAYS
WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT THRU TUE.  THUS THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF SNOW.  AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NR THE FOOTHILLS ON MON
WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
DRY OVER NERN CO ON MON WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE FAR NERN
CORNER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT BJC THROUGH EARLY THIS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35KT. WINDS AT KDEN/KAPA WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS AM
THEN TURN NORTHWEST AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY
ADJUSTED DEN TAF FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
INCREASE A BIT MORE IN 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. MAINLY MID-HI LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TODAY. WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEAST FOR A TIME TONIGHT WHICH
MAY DEVELOP A HIGH STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT. DECK SEEMS SHALLOW
SO NO MENTION OF ANY PRECIP.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 281014
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
314 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. WILL CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
BIT HIGHER IN ZONE 31 WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES BY
LATER THIS EVENING. AS THE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...INCREASING
SUBSIDENT FLOW BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE THE WINDS ON
THE PLAINS AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT AS AIRMASS
DECOUPLES AND STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO.

INITIALLY EARLY THIS MORNING...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. HAVE NOTED SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN
WIND PRONE AREAS AS 88D STILL SHOWING NICE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS
WESTERN BOULDER COUNTY.  CROSS SECTIONS SHOW WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE BY MID MORNING AS MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSIONS DISSIPATE AND
LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM
WYOMING TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING. MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW SO DON`T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS ON THE PLAINS BUT COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THU AS SFC HIGH
PRES OVER ERN CO SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THU NIGHT.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MTNS THRU THE AFTN SO
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.  EAST
OF THE MTNS OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING CLOUDS WILL KEEP FCST DRY.
HIGHS ON THU WILL FINALLY DROP BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE
PLAINS.

ON FRI AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
SWRN US WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT.  SATELLITE SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SW OF THE BAJA AREA WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MARGINAL WITH ONLY
WK MID LVL ASCENT.  THUS ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT IN THE MTNS WITH THE
BEST CHC MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70.  OVER NERN CO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS IT WILL BE DRY THRU THE AFTN
HOURS.  AS FAR AS TEMPS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HIGHS MAY STAY
SIMILAR TO THU DESPITE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB
LYR.

FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SWRN US WILL
STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FM
THE NW. BOTH THE  ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO NERN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITH WK UPSLOPE FLOW.
MEANWHILE AT THE SAME TIME WK MID LVL ASCENT IS FCST ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STABLE. OVERALL WILL KEEP IN
A GOOD CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MTNS WITH A CHC OF LIGHT PCPN OVER
NERN CO. WET BULB ZEROS BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL MAINLY
AS SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER NERN CO.

BY SAT EVENING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NERN CO
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.  THUS
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  IN
THE MTNS OROGRAPHICS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE SAT EVENING AS THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY.  IN ADDITION LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE AS WELL SO SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW.

ON SUN DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN INCREASING NWLY FLOW
ALOFT.  APPEARS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE MTNS FOR A SLIGHT
CHC OF -SHSN.  OVER NERN CO WILL KEEP FCST DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S.

FOR MON AND TUE RATHER STG WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW PERIODS OF MOISTURE AFFECTING THE MTNS BOTH DAYS
WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT THRU TUE.  THUS THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF SNOW.  AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NR THE FOOTHILLS ON MON
WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
DRY OVER NERN CO ON MON WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE FAR NERN
CORNER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT BJC THROUGH EARLY THIS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35KT. WINDS AT KDEN/KAPA WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS AM
THEN TURN NORTHWEST AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY
ADJUSTED DEN TAF FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
INCREASE A BIT MORE IN 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. MAINLY MID-HI LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TODAY. WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEAST FOR A TIME TONIGHT WHICH
MAY DEVELOP A HIGH STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT. DECK SEEMS SHALLOW
SO NO MENTION OF ANY PRECIP.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 280413
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
913 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS FINE. I MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...A SLIGHT INCREASE OF A DEGREE
OR TWO. OTHERWISE CURRENT GRIDS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF COLORADO...ALLOWING FOR A
BIT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN
MOVING OVER THE STATE...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA SEEMS TO
BE LACKING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP
OUT OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOUNTAIN AREAS
COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THROUGH
TOMORROW. AT THE SURFACE...COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO AS THE LEE TROUGH IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD EVERYTHING PRETTY WELL
HANDLED...SO NOT MANY CHANGES WERE NECESSARY THIS TIME AROUND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

TOMORROW`S SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE EAST OF THE
STATE BY 00Z THURSDAY WITH DECENT Q-G SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE
CWA. WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN
ALL AREAS. SOME MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING THERE OVERNIGHT.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE PLAINS
FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS THREAT IS DUE
TO THE INCREASING AND STEADY...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK...QG ASCENT
OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. TWO PIECES OF
TROUGH APPEAR TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY
SATURDAY...THE MAIN ONE COMING IN FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
A SECONDARY ONE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE CHUNK COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGS LOW LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AND ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE TO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE LOWLANDS OCCURRING AT THAT TIME.

AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSES...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL KEEPING BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH AT
LEAST SOME THREAT OF OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THE PLAINS
SHOULD BE DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 903 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED AT KDEN AND KAPA OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS TO DEVELOP AT KBJC LATER THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COOL FRONT. WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRAINAGE NOT EXPECTED TO KICK
INTO UNTIL WELL AFTER 07Z THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 272222
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
322 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF COLORADO...ALLOWING FOR A
BIT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN
MOVING OVER THE STATE...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA SEEMS TO
BE LACKING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP
OUT OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOUNTAIN AREAS
COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THROUGH
TOMORROW. AT THE SURFACE...COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO AS THE LEE TROUGH IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD EVERYTHING PRETTY WELL
HANDLED...SO NOT MANY CHANGES WERE NECESSARY THIS TIME AROUND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

TOMORROW`S SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE EAST OF THE
STATE BY 00Z THURSDAY WITH DECENT Q-G SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE
CWA. WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN
ALL AREAS. SOME MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING THERE OVERNIGHT.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE PLAINS
FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS THREAT IS DUE
TO THE INCREASING AND STEADY...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK...QG ASCENT
OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. TWO PIECES OF
TROUGH APPEAR TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY
SATURDAY...THE MAIN ONE COMING IN FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
A SECONDARY ONE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE CHUNK COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGS LOW LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AND ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE TO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE LOWLANDS OCCURRING AT THAT TIME.

AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSES...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL KEEPING BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH AT
LEAST SOME THREAT OF OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THE PLAINS
SHOULD BE DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO AVIATION IMPACTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...DANKERS





000
FXUS65 KBOU 272222
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
322 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF COLORADO...ALLOWING FOR A
BIT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN
MOVING OVER THE STATE...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA SEEMS TO
BE LACKING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP
OUT OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOUNTAIN AREAS
COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THROUGH
TOMORROW. AT THE SURFACE...COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO AS THE LEE TROUGH IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD EVERYTHING PRETTY WELL
HANDLED...SO NOT MANY CHANGES WERE NECESSARY THIS TIME AROUND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

TOMORROW`S SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE EAST OF THE
STATE BY 00Z THURSDAY WITH DECENT Q-G SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE
CWA. WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN
ALL AREAS. SOME MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING THERE OVERNIGHT.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE PLAINS
FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS THREAT IS DUE
TO THE INCREASING AND STEADY...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK...QG ASCENT
OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. TWO PIECES OF
TROUGH APPEAR TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY
SATURDAY...THE MAIN ONE COMING IN FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
A SECONDARY ONE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE CHUNK COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGS LOW LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AND ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE TO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE LOWLANDS OCCURRING AT THAT TIME.

AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSES...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL KEEPING BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH AT
LEAST SOME THREAT OF OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THE PLAINS
SHOULD BE DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO AVIATION IMPACTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 271720
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1020 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. THE
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED TEMPERATURES ALOFT THAT WERE UNCHANGED
FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...SO THE FORECAST OF MAX TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK LOOKS GOOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATER TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION.
BUT THE POPS IN THE FORECAST ARE FAIRLY LOW...SO WILL NOT CHANGE
THEM NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING AND WILL
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. INITIALLY...JUST SOME
THIN CIRRUS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF
THE TROF. LIKE YESTERDAY AM...FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KREMMLING SO
WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN ZONE 32.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
READINGS AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE TROF WILL MOVE
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME MOISTURE AND A BIT
BETTER OROGRAPHIC FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT BUT WITH MOISTURE RATHER
SHALLOW AND WEAK QG FORCING...EXPECT ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

EXPECT INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WINDS TONIGHT WITH APPROACHING TROF
WITH SPEEDS IN THE 40-60 MPH RANGE OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN CO BY WED AFTN AND
THEN BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WED EVENING. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM RATHER LIMITED SO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
MTNS WILL BE LIGHT. OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RATHER STG
SFC GRADIENT IN PLACE THRU MID AFTN AS A PACIFIC TYPE FNT MOVES
ACROSS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN
ADDITION WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL HOWEVER
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BLO HIGH WIND CRITERIA. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
WITH READINGS IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU A WK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW SOME MINOR UPSLOPE IN AND NR THE
FOOTHILLS WITH QUITE A BIT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE BY 12Z THU.  THUS IT
WOULD NOT BE A TOTAL SURPRISE TO SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS THU MORNING.  OTHERWISE
THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN IN
THE MTNS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL DROP BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS
OVER NERN CO.

ON FRI A WK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DVLP OVER THE SWRN US WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT.  MID LVL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE DAY
WITH A CHC OF -SHSN IN THE MTNS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70.  OVER NERN
CO IT WILL BE DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE BY LATE AFTN.  AS FOR HIGH WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 40S OVER
THE PLAINS.

FOR SAT THRU SAT NIGHT THE GFS TAKES THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL OVER THE
SWRN US AND MOVES IT ENE ACROSS SRN CO/NRN NM WHILE TRYING TO MERGE
IT WITH ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SE IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT.  AS A
RESULT IT HAS ABUNDANT MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
SOME WK MID LVL ASCENT. IN ADDITION A CDFNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO
NERN CO WITH AN INCREASE IN UPSLOPE FLOW LATE IN THE AFTN INTO SAT
EVENING.  THIS LEADS TO A GOOD CHC OF SNOW FM SAT INTO SAT EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA.  MEANWHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FURTHER SOUTH AND DOES NOT MERGE IT WITH THE WEAKER SECONDARY SYSTEM
IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT.  HOWEVER DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES EVEN THE
ECMWF SHOWS SOME WK MID LVL ASCENT OVER THE AREA ON SAT ALONG WITH
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.  FURTHERMORE IT ALSO HAS SURGE OF COOLER
AIR AS WELL BY AFTN INTO SAT EVENING SO EVEN THIS SCENARIO WOULD
LEAD TO A CHC OF SOME LIGHT PCPN.  THUS WILL MENTION A CHC OF SNOW
IN MOST AREAS ON SAT WITH COOLER TEMPS.

BY SUN APPEARS DRIER AIR IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW IN THE MTNS.  850-700 MB TEMPS ARE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SAT SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER
NERN CO.  FOR MON MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE MTNS WITH A
CHC OF SNOW.  OVER NERN CO A SFC LEE TROUGH IS FCST TO DVLP WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS ARE
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO NORTH OR
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRAINAGE SOUTHERLIES WILL RE-
DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS





000
FXUS65 KBOU 271720
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1020 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. THE
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED TEMPERATURES ALOFT THAT WERE UNCHANGED
FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...SO THE FORECAST OF MAX TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK LOOKS GOOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATER TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION.
BUT THE POPS IN THE FORECAST ARE FAIRLY LOW...SO WILL NOT CHANGE
THEM NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING AND WILL
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. INITIALLY...JUST SOME
THIN CIRRUS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF
THE TROF. LIKE YESTERDAY AM...FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KREMMLING SO
WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN ZONE 32.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
READINGS AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE TROF WILL MOVE
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME MOISTURE AND A BIT
BETTER OROGRAPHIC FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT BUT WITH MOISTURE RATHER
SHALLOW AND WEAK QG FORCING...EXPECT ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

EXPECT INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WINDS TONIGHT WITH APPROACHING TROF
WITH SPEEDS IN THE 40-60 MPH RANGE OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN CO BY WED AFTN AND
THEN BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WED EVENING. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM RATHER LIMITED SO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
MTNS WILL BE LIGHT. OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RATHER STG
SFC GRADIENT IN PLACE THRU MID AFTN AS A PACIFIC TYPE FNT MOVES
ACROSS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN
ADDITION WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL HOWEVER
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BLO HIGH WIND CRITERIA. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
WITH READINGS IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU A WK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW SOME MINOR UPSLOPE IN AND NR THE
FOOTHILLS WITH QUITE A BIT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE BY 12Z THU.  THUS IT
WOULD NOT BE A TOTAL SURPRISE TO SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS THU MORNING.  OTHERWISE
THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN IN
THE MTNS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL DROP BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS
OVER NERN CO.

ON FRI A WK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DVLP OVER THE SWRN US WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT.  MID LVL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE DAY
WITH A CHC OF -SHSN IN THE MTNS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70.  OVER NERN
CO IT WILL BE DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE BY LATE AFTN.  AS FOR HIGH WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 40S OVER
THE PLAINS.

FOR SAT THRU SAT NIGHT THE GFS TAKES THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL OVER THE
SWRN US AND MOVES IT ENE ACROSS SRN CO/NRN NM WHILE TRYING TO MERGE
IT WITH ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SE IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT.  AS A
RESULT IT HAS ABUNDANT MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
SOME WK MID LVL ASCENT. IN ADDITION A CDFNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO
NERN CO WITH AN INCREASE IN UPSLOPE FLOW LATE IN THE AFTN INTO SAT
EVENING.  THIS LEADS TO A GOOD CHC OF SNOW FM SAT INTO SAT EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA.  MEANWHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FURTHER SOUTH AND DOES NOT MERGE IT WITH THE WEAKER SECONDARY SYSTEM
IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT.  HOWEVER DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES EVEN THE
ECMWF SHOWS SOME WK MID LVL ASCENT OVER THE AREA ON SAT ALONG WITH
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.  FURTHERMORE IT ALSO HAS SURGE OF COOLER
AIR AS WELL BY AFTN INTO SAT EVENING SO EVEN THIS SCENARIO WOULD
LEAD TO A CHC OF SOME LIGHT PCPN.  THUS WILL MENTION A CHC OF SNOW
IN MOST AREAS ON SAT WITH COOLER TEMPS.

BY SUN APPEARS DRIER AIR IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW IN THE MTNS.  850-700 MB TEMPS ARE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SAT SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER
NERN CO.  FOR MON MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE MTNS WITH A
CHC OF SNOW.  OVER NERN CO A SFC LEE TROUGH IS FCST TO DVLP WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS ARE
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO NORTH OR
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRAINAGE SOUTHERLIES WILL RE-
DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 271003
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
303 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING AND WILL
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. INITIALLY...JUST SOME
THIN CIRRUS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF
THE TROF. LIKE YESTERDAY AM...FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KREMMLING SO
WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN ZONE 32.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
READINGS AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE TROF WILL MOVE
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME MOISTURE AND A BIT
BETTER OROGRAPHIC FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT BUT WITH MOISTURE RATHER
SHALLOW AND WEAK QG FORCING...EXPECT ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

EXPECT INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WINDS TONIGHT WITH APPROACHING TROF
WITH SPEEDS IN THE 40-60 MPH RANGE OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN CO BY WED AFTN AND
THEN BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WED EVENING. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM RATHER LIMITED SO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
MTNS WILL BE LIGHT. OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RATHER STG
SFC GRADIENT IN PLACE THRU MID AFTN AS A PACIFIC TYPE FNT MOVES
ACROSS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN
ADDITION WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL HOWEVER
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BLO HIGH WIND CRITERIA. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
WITH READINGS IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU A WK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW SOME MINOR UPSLOPE IN AND NR THE
FOOTHILLS WITH QUITE A BIT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE BY 12Z THU.  THUS IT
WOULD NOT BE A TOTAL SURPRISE TO SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS THU MORNING.  OTHERWISE
THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN IN
THE MTNS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL DROP BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS
OVER NERN CO.

ON FRI A WK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DVLP OVER THE SWRN US WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT.  MID LVL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE DAY
WITH A CHC OF -SHSN IN THE MTNS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70.  OVER NERN
CO IT WILL BE DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE BY LATE AFTN.  AS FOR HIGH WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 40S OVER
THE PLAINS.

FOR SAT THRU SAT NIGHT THE GFS TAKES THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL OVER THE
SWRN US AND MOVES IT ENE ACROSS SRN CO/NRN NM WHILE TRYING TO MERGE
IT WITH ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SE IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT.  AS A
RESULT IT HAS ABUNDANT MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
SOME WK MID LVL ASCENT. IN ADDITION A CDFNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO
NERN CO WITH AN INCREASE IN UPSLOPE FLOW LATE IN THE AFTN INTO SAT
EVENING.  THIS LEADS TO A GOOD CHC OF SNOW FM SAT INTO SAT EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA.  MEANWHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FURTHER SOUTH AND DOES NOT MERGE IT WITH THE WEAKER SECONDARY SYSTEM
IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT.  HOWEVER DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES EVEN THE
ECMWF SHOWS SOME WK MID LVL ASCENT OVER THE AREA ON SAT ALONG WITH
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.  FURTHERMORE IT ALSO HAS SURGE OF COOLER
AIR AS WELL BY AFTN INTO SAT EVENING SO EVEN THIS SCENARIO WOULD
LEAD TO A CHC OF SOME LIGHT PCPN.  THUS WILL MENTION A CHC OF SNOW
IN MOST AREAS ON SAT WITH COOLER TEMPS.

BY SUN APPEARS DRIER AIR IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW IN THE MTNS.  850-700 MB TEMPS ARE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SAT SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER
NERN CO.  FOR MON MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE MTNS WITH A
CHC OF SNOW.  OVER NERN CO A SFC LEE TROUGH IS FCST TO DVLP WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS 12-20KT AT DEN/APA THOUGH MID MORNING
BEFORE WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE SOME STRONGER WEST WINDS DEVELOPING AT BJC THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACHING TROF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME INCREASE
IN CIRRUS THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 271003
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
303 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING AND WILL
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. INITIALLY...JUST SOME
THIN CIRRUS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF
THE TROF. LIKE YESTERDAY AM...FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KREMMLING SO
WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN ZONE 32.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
READINGS AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE TROF WILL MOVE
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME MOISTURE AND A BIT
BETTER OROGRAPHIC FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT BUT WITH MOISTURE RATHER
SHALLOW AND WEAK QG FORCING...EXPECT ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

EXPECT INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WINDS TONIGHT WITH APPROACHING TROF
WITH SPEEDS IN THE 40-60 MPH RANGE OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN CO BY WED AFTN AND
THEN BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WED EVENING. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM RATHER LIMITED SO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
MTNS WILL BE LIGHT. OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RATHER STG
SFC GRADIENT IN PLACE THRU MID AFTN AS A PACIFIC TYPE FNT MOVES
ACROSS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN
ADDITION WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL HOWEVER
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BLO HIGH WIND CRITERIA. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
WITH READINGS IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU A WK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW SOME MINOR UPSLOPE IN AND NR THE
FOOTHILLS WITH QUITE A BIT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE BY 12Z THU.  THUS IT
WOULD NOT BE A TOTAL SURPRISE TO SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS THU MORNING.  OTHERWISE
THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN IN
THE MTNS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL DROP BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS
OVER NERN CO.

ON FRI A WK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DVLP OVER THE SWRN US WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT.  MID LVL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE DAY
WITH A CHC OF -SHSN IN THE MTNS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70.  OVER NERN
CO IT WILL BE DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE BY LATE AFTN.  AS FOR HIGH WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 40S OVER
THE PLAINS.

FOR SAT THRU SAT NIGHT THE GFS TAKES THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL OVER THE
SWRN US AND MOVES IT ENE ACROSS SRN CO/NRN NM WHILE TRYING TO MERGE
IT WITH ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SE IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT.  AS A
RESULT IT HAS ABUNDANT MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
SOME WK MID LVL ASCENT. IN ADDITION A CDFNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO
NERN CO WITH AN INCREASE IN UPSLOPE FLOW LATE IN THE AFTN INTO SAT
EVENING.  THIS LEADS TO A GOOD CHC OF SNOW FM SAT INTO SAT EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA.  MEANWHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FURTHER SOUTH AND DOES NOT MERGE IT WITH THE WEAKER SECONDARY SYSTEM
IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT.  HOWEVER DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES EVEN THE
ECMWF SHOWS SOME WK MID LVL ASCENT OVER THE AREA ON SAT ALONG WITH
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.  FURTHERMORE IT ALSO HAS SURGE OF COOLER
AIR AS WELL BY AFTN INTO SAT EVENING SO EVEN THIS SCENARIO WOULD
LEAD TO A CHC OF SOME LIGHT PCPN.  THUS WILL MENTION A CHC OF SNOW
IN MOST AREAS ON SAT WITH COOLER TEMPS.

BY SUN APPEARS DRIER AIR IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW IN THE MTNS.  850-700 MB TEMPS ARE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SAT SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER
NERN CO.  FOR MON MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE MTNS WITH A
CHC OF SNOW.  OVER NERN CO A SFC LEE TROUGH IS FCST TO DVLP WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS 12-20KT AT DEN/APA THOUGH MID MORNING
BEFORE WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE SOME STRONGER WEST WINDS DEVELOPING AT BJC THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACHING TROF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME INCREASE
IN CIRRUS THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 270401
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
901 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATED PLANNED THIS EVENING..SOME MINOR WIND
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS AND THAT IS IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER COLORADO
TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE ON TUESDAY. CROSS SECTIONS
DO NOT SHOW ANY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL AFTER NOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK AROUND AS WARM
AS THEY GOT TO TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY...JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO OUR EAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK QG ASCENT TO CROSS THE CWA
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A SMALL THREAT OF SOME SNOW TO THE
HIGH COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THE QPF ARENA WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN ITS
WAKE. SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
BRINGING A BRIEF RESPITE OF DRYING PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS BROAD
AND RELATIVELY LONG-LIVED BUT NOT TERRIBLY STRONG. CONSEQUENTLY A
PROLONGED LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF EVENT SHOULD UNFOLD IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO UPSLOPE.
NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DRYING AND WARMING ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING INVADES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 857 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY WHEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN COMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SWITCH BACK TO
LIGHT AND NORTHERLY AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AT KBJC TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 270401
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
901 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATED PLANNED THIS EVENING..SOME MINOR WIND
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS AND THAT IS IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER COLORADO
TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE ON TUESDAY. CROSS SECTIONS
DO NOT SHOW ANY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL AFTER NOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK AROUND AS WARM
AS THEY GOT TO TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY...JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO OUR EAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK QG ASCENT TO CROSS THE CWA
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A SMALL THREAT OF SOME SNOW TO THE
HIGH COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THE QPF ARENA WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN ITS
WAKE. SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
BRINGING A BRIEF RESPITE OF DRYING PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS BROAD
AND RELATIVELY LONG-LIVED BUT NOT TERRIBLY STRONG. CONSEQUENTLY A
PROLONGED LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF EVENT SHOULD UNFOLD IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO UPSLOPE.
NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DRYING AND WARMING ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING INVADES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 857 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY WHEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN COMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SWITCH BACK TO
LIGHT AND NORTHERLY AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AT KBJC TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...COOPER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 262218
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
318 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER COLORADO
TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE ON TUESDAY. CROSS SECTIONS
DO NOT SHOW ANY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL AFTER NOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK AROUND AS WARM
AS THEY GOT TO TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY...JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO OUR EAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK QG ASCENT TO CROSS THE CWA
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A SMALL THREAT OF SOME SNOW TO THE
HIGH COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THE QPF ARENA WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN ITS
WAKE. SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
BRINGING A BRIEF RESPITE OF DRYING PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS BROAD
AND RELATIVELY LONG-LIVED BUT NOT TERRIBLY STRONG. CONSEQUENTLY A
PROLONGED LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF EVENT SHOULD UNFOLD IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO UPSLOPE.
NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DRYING AND WARMING ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING INVADES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY
TOMORROW WHEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND COME BACK TO LIGHT AND NORTHERLY AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. NO AVIATION IMPACTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...DANKERS





000
FXUS65 KBOU 262218
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
318 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER COLORADO
TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE ON TUESDAY. CROSS SECTIONS
DO NOT SHOW ANY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL AFTER NOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK AROUND AS WARM
AS THEY GOT TO TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY...JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO OUR EAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK QG ASCENT TO CROSS THE CWA
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A SMALL THREAT OF SOME SNOW TO THE
HIGH COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THE QPF ARENA WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN ITS
WAKE. SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
BRINGING A BRIEF RESPITE OF DRYING PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS BROAD
AND RELATIVELY LONG-LIVED BUT NOT TERRIBLY STRONG. CONSEQUENTLY A
PROLONGED LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF EVENT SHOULD UNFOLD IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO UPSLOPE.
NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DRYING AND WARMING ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING INVADES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY
TOMORROW WHEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND COME BACK TO LIGHT AND NORTHERLY AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. NO AVIATION IMPACTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...DANKERS




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