000
FXUS65 KBOU 252045
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
245 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS HELD ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE.
MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE WAS BECOMING MORE DEFINED FROM THE
ARAPAHOE/ELBERT COUNTY LINE EASTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
COUNTY. CUMULUS TOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS LINE...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. THERE WAS A
LITTLE CUMULUS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST WELD
COUNTY...BUT INITIATION IN THIS AREA WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT WITH
CIRRUS SHIELD SPREADING ACROSS THE TOP. SURFACE CAPES 2500-3000
J/KG WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE LOWER 50S SO IF CONVECTION
CAN POP WE WILL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. MIXED LAYER CAPES SHOULD
BE CLOSER TO 1000-2000 J/KG. AT THIS TIME...SEE THIS THREAT JUST A
SHADE WEST OF EARLIER FORECAST...POSSIBLY AS FAR BACK AS FORT
MORGAN.

SKIES WILL CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF CONVECTION
AND CIRRUS SHIELD SHIFTING EASTWARD. DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
STRENGTH OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...COULD SEE ANOTHER PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
STRATUS INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...LOOKS PRETTY MUCH LIKE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...DRY AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG DRYLINE FORMATION IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...WILL BACK THINGS UP JUST ABOUT ANOTHER
COUNTY WESTWARD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON MODEL BIASES AND
POTENTIAL SURGES FROM CENTRAL PLAINS CONVECTION. COULD SEE A
COUPLE SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER AGAIN DUE TO AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY NEAR 2000-3000 J/KG.

.LONG TERM...ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE EVENING...IT WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR.
ON MONDAY....ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH A DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE...BUT EVEN THERE THE COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF SOME HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND URBAN
CORRIDOR IN THE AFTN AND EVENING WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE. FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. THE TROUGH ITSELF IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE TROUGH HAS A STRONG
NEGATIVE TILT INTO THE PAC NW ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ON THURSDAY A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LOW BREAKS OFF AND MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SYSTEM IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED BUT
IT WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED BOTH DAYS. AS A RESULT...BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE AT THIS TIME...WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AS WELL. COULD EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS WELL AS THE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. TIMING OF THE MDLS GETS ERRATIC BEYOND WEDNESDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME DRYING BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FM THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE TRICKY AGAIN WITH POTENTIAL FOR DENVER CYCLONE INDUCED MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING VERSUS POSSIBLE NORMAL TRANSITION TO
DRAINAGE. EVENTUAL DRAINAGE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL BY 06Z WITH
RETURN TO NORMAL DIURNAL EASTERLIES BY 17Z-19Z SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS65 KBOU 251553
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
953 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.UPDATE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT
REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...IT WAS STILL LESS THAN 2000 FEET
DEEP ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND MOST OF THIS IS STILL SLATED TO
ERODE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER MIXING
AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. ANY STORMS THAT
FIRE WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
NEAR 3000 J/KG WITH 89F/52F. WE DO ANTICIPATE SOME DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT INTO THE UPDRAFTS THOUGH WITH SUCH DRY AIR JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN ANY CASE...MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT FORECAST OF VFR CONDITIONS AND DENVER CYCLONE
WIND PATTERN LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013/

SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARM AND DRY AIR TO COLORADO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS BACKED INTO THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S. THIS MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW AND WILL
QUICKLY MIX OUT. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO PLUMMET ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
THIS MORNING AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON. TOO DRY FOR ANY CONVECTION. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE
TO HANG ON OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO. WILL HAVE LOW
POPS FOR THIS...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE NORTH AND
EAST OF COLORADO. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THEM TO BECOME SEVERE. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. A FEW LOWER 90S MAY ALSO BE MIXED IN.

SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE
WARM AIRMASS WILL KEEP LOWS MILD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES LIKELY ABOVE
50 DEGREES.

LONG TERM...NAM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF LARGE SCALE
FEATURES ACROSS THE COUNTRY. SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH SWINGING EWRD ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL RETURN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON SUNDAY. AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH
PLATTE RIVER NORTHEAST OF DENVER COULD SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S. LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH MIN RH
VALUES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FARTHER
OUT ON THE PLAINS...A PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/50S...AND WITH STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING...COULD SEE ONE OR TWO LATE DAY STORMS FORMING IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER. WITH WEAK SHEAR...SHALLOW MOISTURE AND A FREEZING
LEVEL QUITE HIGH...GENERAL THREAT FROM THESE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. FOR NOW...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE AIRMASS
APPEARS QUITE CAPPED WITH VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

ON MONDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH CONTINUES ITS EWRD MARCH ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT BASIN AND AND NRN ROCKIES...PLACING COLORADO UNDER A
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SUCH A FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...EXCEPT PERHAPS OUT
NEAR THE NEB BORDER WHERE A LIGHT NELY BNDRY LAYER FLOW WILL HOLD
DEWPOINTS TO THE 40S/LOWER 50S. AS WAS THE CASE ON SUNDAY...COULD
SEE A STRAY T-STORM OR TWO OUT NEAR THE CORNER LATE IN THE DAY. MTN
AREAS MAY ALSO SEE A FEW LATE DAY STORMS POP WITH STG HEATING AND
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER DUE TO SLIGHT
COOLING ALOFT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW THE LARGE OPEN WAVE UPPER
TROUGH PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR LIFT APPEARS TO PASS
NORTH OF COLORADO...ALTHOUGH THE EUROPEAN MODEL STILL INDICATED A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH A SHARPLY CURVED LOBE OF THE TROUGH
LIFTING NEWRD OVER EASTERN COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...THE MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING THIS
FEATURE COULD MAKE FOR A DAY OF ACTIVE IF NOT SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AS IT STANDS...PREFER TO GO WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS...WHICH KEEPS STORMS ON WEDNESDAY LARGELY CONFINED TO
THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. OF COURSE STILL CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS FORMING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH AND COOL AIR POOL ALOFT OVER
COLORADO. AIRMASS LOOKS CAPPED AND WITH DECREASING MOISTURE...THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH...PARTICULARLY ON
THE PLAINS. WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK
ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT TOO FAR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

AVIATION...AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING HAZE AND A FEW LOW
CLOUDS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO
THE SOUTH OF DENVER AND LIKELY CREATE A DENVER CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH
OF KDEN. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
AROUND 00Z...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES EAST
OF DENVER.

HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS65 KBOU 250953
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
353 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARM AND DRY AIR TO COLORADO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS BACKED INTO THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S. THIS MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW AND WILL
QUICKLY MIX OUT. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO PLUMMET ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
THIS MORNING AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON. TOO DRY FOR ANY CONVECTION. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE
TO HANG ON OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO. WILL HAVE LOW
POPS FOR THIS...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE NORTH AND
EAST OF COLORADO. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THEM TO BECOME SEVERE. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. A FEW LOWER 90S MAY ALSO BE MIXED IN.

SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE
WARM AIRMASS WILL KEEP LOWS MILD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES LIKELY ABOVE
50 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...NAM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF LARGE SCALE
FEATURES ACROSS THE COUNTRY. SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH SWINGING EWRD ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL RETURN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON SUNDAY. AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH
PLATTE RIVER NORTHEAST OF DENVER COULD SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S. LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH MIN RH
VALUES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FARTHER
OUT ON THE PLAINS...A PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/50S...AND WITH STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING...COULD SEE ONE OR TWO LATE DAY STORMS FORMING IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER. WITH WEAK SHEAR...SHALLOW MOISTURE AND A FREEZING
LEVEL QUITE HIGH...GENERAL THREAT FROM THESE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. FOR NOW...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE AIRMASS
APPEARS QUITE CAPPED WITH VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

ON MONDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH CONTINUES ITS EWRD MARCH ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT BASIN AND AND NRN ROCKIES...PLACING COLORADO UNDER A
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SUCH A FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...EXCEPT PERHAPS OUT
NEAR THE NEB BORDER WHERE A LIGHT NELY BNDRY LAYER FLOW WILL HOLD
DEWPOINTS TO THE 40S/LOWER 50S. AS WAS THE CASE ON SUNDAY...COULD
SEE A STRAY T-STORM OR TWO OUT NEAR THE CORNER LATE IN THE DAY. MTN
AREAS MAY ALSO SEE A FEW LATE DAY STORMS POP WITH STG HEATING AND
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER DUE TO SLIGHT
COOLING ALOFT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW THE LARGE OPEN WAVE UPPER
TROUGH PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR LIFT APPEARS TO PASS
NORTH OF COLORADO...ALTHOUGH THE EUROPEAN MODEL STILL INDICATED A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH A SHARPLY CURVED LOBE OF THE TROUGH
LIFTING NEWRD OVER EASTERN COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...THE MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING THIS
FEATURE COULD MAKE FOR A DAY OF ACTIVE IF NOT SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AS IT STANDS...PREFER TO GO WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS...WHICH KEEPS STORMS ON WEDNESDAY LARGELY CONFINED TO
THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. OF COURSE STILL CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS FORMING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH AND COOL AIR POOL ALOFT OVER
COLORADO. AIRMASS LOOKS CAPPED AND WITH DECREASING MOISTURE...THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH...PARTICULARLY ON
THE PLAINS. WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK
ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT TOO FAR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING HAZE AND A FEW LOW
CLOUDS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO
THE SOUTH OF DENVER AND LIKELY CREATE A DENVER CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH
OF KDEN. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
AROUND 00Z...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES EAST
OF DENVER.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER

000
FXUS65 KBOU 250223
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
823 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.SHORT TERM...TSTMS HAVE ENDED OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS. A BNDRY
HAS WORKED ITS WAY BACK INTO THE FRONT RANGE BUT NO TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG IT AS IT APPEARS AIRMASS IS CAPPED. STILL COULD
SEE AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER THRU MIDNIGHT
SO WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS OUT THERE.

.AVIATION...DEEPER LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS SURGED BACK INTO THE
AIRPORT. LATEST RAP SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO DVLP OVER
SRN WELD COUNTY BY 10Z HOWEVER LOW LVL WINDS ARE FCST TO BECOME
MORE SWLY BY THEN SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP STRATUS TO THE N AND NE OF
DIA FOR LATER TONIGHT. AS FOR WINDS WILL KEEP THEN NELY THRU 05Z
AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT THEM BACK TO SSW AFTER 06Z.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

SHORT TERM...CURRENT DEW POINT READINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S-
30S F OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE TEENS F
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS THEY
ARE IN THE 40S-50S F...HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER.
SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS
AT THIS TIME. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CIN OVER THE PLAINS RIGHT
NOW. THERE IS A DENVER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR DENVER INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM AROUND MORRISON IN
JEFFERSON COUNTY TO CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY. MODELS KEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO BE BENIGN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE NORMAL DRAINAGE
TONIGHT AND MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING ON SATURDAY. SOME OF
THE MODELS HANG ON TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER ON
SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT GOOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER
LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO STAY
ABOVE 50S F OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE FAIRLY DECENT OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...OVER 2000 J/KG THIS EVENING. FOR POPS THIS
EVENING...WILL STAY THE COURSE AND KEEP 10-30%S OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. THE SHEAR IS GOOD AND THE
MOISTURE PLENTIFUL. NO POPS ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY...THE DECENT
CAPE IS PROGGED OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER AGAIN. THE SHEAR IS NOT
AS GOOD TO NO SEVERE MENTIONED THERE BUT WILL GO WITH 10-20%S FOR
LATER AFTERNOON. SATURDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 0-1.5 C WARMER THAN
TODAY`S CURRENT HIGHS.

LONG TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STAYS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL
US. THROUGH TUESDAY...NOT MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ENTRAINED IN THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW...SO EXPECTING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THAN
NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER THE PLAINS...IN THE 60S AND 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS...AND HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER TEENS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS DAY AFTER DAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TAKING A TOLL ON THE FUELS AROUND THE STATE...HOWEVER CURRENTLY
THE FUELS ARE LISTED AS STILL BEING GREEN ENOUGH AFTER OUR LATE
SEASON MOISTURE. WILL KEEP EVALUATING THE FUELS EACH DAY TO
DETERMINE ANY NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. RIGHT NOW WINDS
LOOK TO BE RIGHT AT OR BELOW CRITERIA. A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CO/KS/NE STATE BORDERS KEEPING MOST OF
THE AREA DRY AND LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS. CAPE
VALUES EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER WILL VARY BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A
VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SO ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL MAINLY HAVE LITTLE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS.

BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO MID-WEEK...THE PAC-NW TROUGH WILL
GET AN EXTRA SHOT OF ENERGY AND PUSH A TROUGH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
STATE. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE GETTING LESS AS THE ECMWF USED TO
DEEPEN THE TROUGH INTO A CUT-OFF LOW WHICH ITS DOING LESS NOW. THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE...SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE AND DECREASE TEMPERATURES OVER
THIS PERIOD. FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS TREND...ONLY MADE MINOR
EDITS.

AVIATION...PESKY WIND FIELDS TO DEAL WITH AS A DENVER CYCLONE IS
IN AND NEAR KDEN. NORMAL DRAINAGE WIND PATTERNS SHOULD KICK IN
LATER THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SATURDAY
WITH MOISTURE LACKING.

HYDROLOGY...THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD GET UP
TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH...BUT FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RPK

000
FXUS65 KBOU 242049
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
249 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...CURRENT DEW POINT READINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S-
30S F OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE TEENS F
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS THEY
ARE IN THE 40S-50S F...HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER.
SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS
AT THIS TIME. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CIN OVER THE PLAINS RIGHT
NOW. THERE IS A DENVER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR DENVER INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM AROUND MORRISON IN
JEFFERSON COUNTY TO CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY. MODELS KEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO BE BENIGN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE NORMAL DRAINAGE
TONIGHT AND MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING ON SATURDAY. SOME OF
THE MODELS HANG ON TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER ON
SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT GOOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER
LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO STAY
ABOVE 50S F OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE FAIRLY DECENT OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...OVER 2000 J/KG THIS EVENING. FOR POPS THIS
EVENING...WILL STAY THE COURSE AND KEEP 10-30%S OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. THE SHEAR IS GOOD AND THE
MOISTURE PLENTIFUL. NO POPS ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY...THE DECENT
CAPE IS PROGGED OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER AGAIN. THE SHEAR IS NOT
AS GOOD TO NO SEVERE MENTIONED THERE BUT WILL GO WITH 10-20%S FOR
LATER AFTERNOON. SATURDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 0-1.5 C WARMER THAN
TODAY`S CURRENT HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STAYS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL
US. THROUGH TUESDAY...NOT MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ENTRAINED IN THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW...SO EXPECTING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THAN
NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER THE PLAINS...IN THE 60S AND 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS...AND HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER TEENS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS DAY AFTER DAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TAKING A TOLL ON THE FUELS AROUND THE STATE...HOWEVER CURRENTLY
THE FUELS ARE LISTED AS STILL BEING GREEN ENOUGH AFTER OUR LATE
SEASON MOISTURE. WILL KEEP EVALUATING THE FUELS EACH DAY TO
DETERMINE ANY NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. RIGHT NOW WINDS
LOOK TO BE RIGHT AT OR BELOW CRITERIA. A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CO/KS/NE STATE BORDERS KEEPING MOST OF
THE AREA DRY AND LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS. CAPE
VALUES EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER WILL VARY BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A
VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SO ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL MAINLY HAVE LITTLE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS.

BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO MID-WEEK...THE PAC-NW TROUGH WILL
GET AN EXTRA SHOT OF ENERGY AND PUSH A TROUGH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
STATE. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE GETTING LESS AS THE ECMWF USED TO
DEEPEN THE TROUGH INTO A CUT-OFF LOW WHICH ITS DOING LESS NOW. THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE...SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE AND DECREASE TEMPERATURES OVER
THIS PERIOD. FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS TREND...ONLY MADE MINOR
EDITS.

&&

.AVIATION...PESKY WIND FIELDS TO DEAL WITH AS A DENVER CYCLONE IS
IN AND NEAR KDEN. NORMAL DRAINAGE WIND PATTERNS SHOULD KICK IN
LATER THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SATURDAY
WITH MOISTURE LACKING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD GET UP
TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH...BUT FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
UNTIL 10 PM MDT FOR LOGAN...WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS
COUNTIES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RJK

000
FXUS65 KBOU 241639
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1039 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...CURRENT RADAR PICTURES ARE SHOWING AN EAST TO WEST
BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREATER DENVER AREA. BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S F. OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PLAINS...DECENT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLIES ARE CONTINUING WITH 50S F
DEW POINTS IN PLACE. THE SHEAR STILL LOOKS DECENT SO WILL KEEP
THINGS AS IS CONCERNING SEVERE THREAT.

.AVIATION...BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS DIA RIGHT NOW WITH 10-15 KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLIES BEHIND IT. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE SHOWERS AND
STORMS OUT OF THE TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A RIDGE
RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND A LOW SPINS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL USHER IN WARMER AND DRIER
AIR TO PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WYOMING
AND COLORADO CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND CREATE A
DRY LINE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. EAST OF THE DRY LINE DEW
POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGHS AROUND 80
DEGREES WILL CREATE SURFACE BASED CAPES OF UP TO 2500 J/KG. SUPER
CELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE DRY LINE DUE TO THE
INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
EAST OF THE DRY LINE...WHICH LOOKS TO STALL OUT ALONG A LINE FROM
STERLING TO AKRON TO BURLINGTON.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY. HIGHS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL REACH THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLIDE BACK WEST ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS. COULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN
TONIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO. BECAUSE OF THE WARM AIRMASS AND
MOISTURE...LOWS WILL BE MILD TONIGHT WITH READINGS AROUND 50 DEGREES
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

LONG TERM...STRONG RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS PLACES COLORADO
IN A VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
10-15 DEG F ABOVE AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS ON THE PLAINS AND 60S-70S IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY. MIN RH VALUES ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 10
PERCENT ON THE PLAINS. MAY ALSO SEE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY
GUSTING TO 25 MPH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THE PALMER DIVIDE. THAT
SAID...CURRENTLY FUELS ARE DEEMED TOO GREEN/MOIST TO CARRY FIRE
EASILY. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FUELS SITUATION SHOULD
WINDS ON THE PALMER DIVIDE BECOME STRONGER THAN PREDICTED. ONLY
OTHER GLITCH IN DRY AND VERY WARM FORECAST FOR SATURDAY HAS TO DO
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.

LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES IN THE FAR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCES ALONG A DRY LINE MEANDERING
ACROSS THE AREA. MAY SEE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/BOUYANCY TO GENERATE
ISOLATED T-STORMS IN PHILLIPS AND/OR SEDGWICK COUNTIES BY EVENING.
A BRIEF MODERATE SHOWER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY BE ALL THAT WE
SEE FROM THEM THOUGH. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY.

ON SUNDAY...DAY STARTS OUT DRY EVERYWHERE AND QUITE MILD WITH
TEMPERATURES THE NIGHT BEFORE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS
TO A WARM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. BY AFTERNOON...THE GFS...
CANADIAN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE NAM MODELS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS TURNING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND A WEAK SFC BASED CYCLONE IN
THE VICINITY OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. WHILE ALL THIS IS GOING
ON...MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT MID-LEVELS LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA. NAM IS FCSTG SFC BASED CAPES IN THE
1000-2000 J/KG RANGE BY AROUND 00Z/MONDAY ACROSS MORGAN...LOGAN...
WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES. CALCULATED CAPE VALUES
EVEN GREATER OFF THE GFS. WHILE THE ECMWF CAPES ARE LOWER THAN
EITHER OF THESE MODELS. HOWEVER ALL 3 MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CIN
OUT THERE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. A SFC BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE AREA
COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD THE CAP BREAK.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-
STORMS ROUGHLY EAST OF LINE FROM CHEYENNE TO GREELEY TO LIMON. SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE ISOLATED STORMS.

MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO FLUSH EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
RESUMPTION OF DRIER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. IT NOW
APPEARS THIS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUS GREATER CAPES REMAIN EAST
OF THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES INDICATE A NARROW
STRIP OF 2000-3000 J/KG CAPES ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER
AROUND 00Z/TUESDAY...BUT STILL QUITE A BIT OF CIN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING T-STORMS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HEAT DRIVEN STORMS OVER
THE FRONT RANGE.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...PLACING
COLORADO UNDER STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LATE ON TUESDAY...THE
CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE MOIST OUTFLOW FROM A LARGE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO OUR NORTHEAST. WHILE THE NAM AND GFS SHOW NO
SUCH OUTFLOW AS THEY CONTINUE THE WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA. THEREFORE WILL BACK OFF ON T-
STORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND JUST KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE GFS INDICATES AN OPEN LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING FOR COLORADO...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER ARIZONA.
THIS CREATES A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE FCST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS THE
TROUGH ALREADY PAST THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH A DRIER ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE FCST AREA. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE NOT ANY
SMALLER ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING T-STORMS FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE CWFA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND DRY THINGS OUT ON THURSDAY...ASSUMING THE TROUGH
PASSES BY THEN. AFTER TUESDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE PASSING TROUGH.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND
SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING. THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS VERY NEAR KDEN AND
KAPA...LESS THAN 5 MILES. THEY COULD MOVE OVER ONE OR BOTH OF THE
AIRPORTS FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE 12Z. DRIER WILL IS MOVING INTO THE
AREA AND WILL ERODE THE CLOUDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS A DENVER CYCLONE
DEVELOPS. BY 00Z...APPEARS WINDS WILL END UP NORTHWEST AS THE
CYCLONE SHIFTS EAST OF THE DENVER AREA.

HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS FOR THE BURN AREAS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER

000
FXUS65 KBOU 240941
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
341 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A RIDGE
RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND A LOW SPINS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL USHER IN WARMER AND DRIER
AIR TO PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WYOMING
AND COLORADO CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND CREATE A
DRY LINE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. EAST OF THE DRY LINE DEW
POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGHS AROUND 80
DEGREES WILL CREATE SURFACE BASED CAPES OF UP TO 2500 J/KG. SUPER
CELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE DRY LINE DUE TO THE
INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
EAST OF THE DRY LINE...WHICH LOOKS TO STALL OUT ALONG A LINE FROM
STERLING TO AKRON TO BURLINGTON.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY. HIGHS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL REACH THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLIDE BACK WEST ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS. COULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN
TONIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO. BECAUSE OF THE WARM AIRMASS AND
MOISTURE...LOWS WILL BE MILD TONIGHT WITH READINGS AROUND 50 DEGREES
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...STRONG RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS PLACES COLORADO
IN A VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
10-15 DEG F ABOVE AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS ON THE PLAINS AND 60S-70S IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY. MIN RH VALUES ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 10
PERCENT ON THE PLAINS. MAY ALSO SEE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY
GUSTING TO 25 MPH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THE PALMER DIVIDE. THAT
SAID...CURRENTLY FUELS ARE DEEMED TOO GREEN/MOIST TO CARRY FIRE
EASILY. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FUELS SITUATION SHOULD
WINDS ON THE PALMER DIVIDE BECOME STRONGER THAN PREDICTED. ONLY
OTHER GLITCH IN DRY AND VERY WARM FORECAST FOR SATURDAY HAS TO DO
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.

LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES IN THE FAR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCES ALONG A DRY LINE MEANDERING
ACROSS THE AREA. MAY SEE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/BOUYANCY TO GENERATE
ISOLATED T-STORMS IN PHILLIPS AND/OR SEDGWICK COUNTIES BY EVENING.
A BRIEF MODERATE SHOWER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY BE ALL THAT WE
SEE FROM THEM THOUGH. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY.

ON SUNDAY...DAY STARTS OUT DRY EVERYWHERE AND QUITE MILD WITH
TEMPERATURES THE NIGHT BEFORE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS
TO A WARM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. BY AFTERNOON...THE GFS...
CANADIAN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE NAM MODELS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS TURNING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND A WEAK SFC BASED CYCLONE IN
THE VICINITY OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. WHILE ALL THIS IS GOING
ON...MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT MID-LEVELS LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA. NAM IS FCSTG SFC BASED CAPES IN THE
1000-2000 J/KG RANGE BY AROUND 00Z/MONDAY ACROSS MORGAN...LOGAN...
WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES. CALCULATED CAPE VALUES
EVEN GREATER OFF THE GFS. WHILE THE ECMWF CAPES ARE LOWER THAN
EITHER OF THESE MODELS. HOWEVER ALL 3 MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CIN
OUT THERE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. A SFC BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE AREA
COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD THE CAP BREAK.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-
STORMS ROUGHLY EAST OF LINE FROM CHEYENNE TO GREELEY TO LIMON. SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE ISOLATED STORMS.

MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO FLUSH EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
RESUMPTION OF DRIER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. IT NOW
APPEARS THIS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUS GREATER CAPES REMAIN EAST
OF THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES INDICATE A NARROW
STRIP OF 2000-3000 J/KG CAPES ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER
AROUND 00Z/TUESDAY...BUT STILL QUITE A BIT OF CIN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING T-STORMS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HEAT DRIVEN STORMS OVER
THE FRONT RANGE.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...PLACING
COLORADO UNDER STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LATE ON TUESDAY...THE
CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE MOIST OUTFLOW FROM A LARGE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO OUR NORTHEAST. WHILE THE NAM AND GFS SHOW NO
SUCH OUTFLOW AS THEY CONTINUE THE WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA. THEREFORE WILL BACK OFF ON T-
STORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND JUST KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE GFS INDICATES AN OPEN LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING FOR COLORADO...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER ARIZONA.
THIS CREATES A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE FCST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS THE
TROUGH ALREADY PAST THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH A DRIER ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE FCST AREA. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE NOT ANY
SMALLER ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING T-STORMS FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE CWFA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND DRY THINGS OUT ON THURSDAY...ASSUMING THE TROUGH
PASSES BY THEN. AFTER TUESDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE PASSING TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND
SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING. THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS VERY NEAR KDEN AND
KAPA...LESS THAN 5 MILES. THEY COULD MOVE OVER ONE OR BOTH OF THE
AIRPORTS FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE 12Z. DRIER WILL IS MOVING INTO THE
AREA AND WILL ERODE THE CLOUDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS A DENVER CYCLONE
DEVELOPS. BY 00Z...APPEARS WINDS WILL END UP NORTHWEST AS THE
CYCLONE SHIFTS EAST OF THE DENVER AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS FOR THE BURN AREAS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER

000
FXUS65 KBOU 240155
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
755 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.SHORT TERM...AIRMASS WAS TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE TSTMS SO WILL
REMOVE THEM FOR THIS EVENING. WILL SEE SOME DRIZZLE DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT OVER THE PLAINS.

.AVIATION...GUSTY SE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BY 03Z AND BECOME MORE
SLY BY 06Z AND CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH 12Z. ANY STRATUS AND FOG
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS AND NOT AFFECT THE AIRPORT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS OF COLORADO AND EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS EASTERN SECTIONS
OF DENVER. THIS FLOW PATTERN RESULTED IN A DENVER CYCLONE THIS
MORNING WITH A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM AROUND BJC AND
STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO JUST WEST OF GXY. DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WHILE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 77 SO IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE
FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH EVENTUAL READINGS
IN THE LOWER 70S. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
INVERSION BETWEEN 750-700MB. STILL GIVEN THE LIFT WITH THE
BOUNDARY AND WEAK WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO...MAY BE ABLE TO
SPARK A STORM OR TWO OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE STILL LOW
IN THIS SCENARIO BUT IF STORMS DO SPARK...THEN THERE IS A SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH HAIL AND WEAK TORNADOES AROUND THE BOUNDARY.
FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS...AIRMASS IS TOO CAPPED FOR STORMS.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATER
TONIGHT AND MOISTURE DEPTH MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. CURRENT ZONES ALREADY HAVE THIS COVERED.
FOR FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS WITH DRY LINE SETTING UP CLOSE TO THE COLORADO AND
KANSAS BORDER. SPC ALREADY HAS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA TARGETED FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH CAPES OVER 2000J/KG AND STRONG DIRECTION SHEAR
PROFILE. STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL STABILITY SO POPS WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS WITH STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY EVENING OVER FAR EASTERN PLAINS CLOSE TO THE NE AND KS
BORDERS. STORM DIRECTION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST THOUGH AND WILL
QUICKLY DEPART. A FEW AREAS OF FOG MAY POP UP ALONG THE NORTHERN
STATE BORDER OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE STATE WILL STAY IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AND ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR THE
PLAINS AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE PLAINS AND IN THE 30S TO 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRINGING IN SOME DRIER
AIR WHICH WILL BE LOWERING HUMIDITIES...MORE SO OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 10
PERCENT...WITH SOME WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND THE PALMER DIVIDE. CURRENTLY FUELS ARE DEEMED UNABLE TO CARRY
FIRE EASILY...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FUELS
SITUATION FOR SATURDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE STATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WHETHER TO KEEP IT
AN OPEN TROUGH AS THE GFS SHOWS...OR DIG IT SOUTH AND CUT IT OFF
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LIKE THE ECMWF SHOWS. WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS PERIOD
TO SHOW A TREND.

AVIATION...BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AT APA/BJC WHILE BJC WILL REMAIN UNDER WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW
WITH STRONG BOUNDARY ORIENTED FROM BJC TO GXY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT LOW ENOUGH
THAT WON`T BE MENTIONED IN CURRENT TAF. IF THINGS DO DEVELOP THEN
WILL TRY AND PINPOINT TS IN RESPECTIVE TAF. AS LIKE LAST
NIGHT...STRATUS WILL INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS BUT AGAIN WILL
LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO APA/DEN.

HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS. ISOLATED STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
MOVING AT 15-20KT SO FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS QUITE LOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RPK

000
FXUS65 KBOU 232048
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
248 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS OF COLORADO AND EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS EASTERN SECTIONS
OF DENVER. THIS FLOW PATTERN RESULTED IN A DENVER CYCLONE THIS
MORNING WITH A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM AROUND BJC AND
STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO JUST WEST OF GXY. DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WHILE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 77 SO IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE
FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH EVENTUAL READINGS
IN THE LOWER 70S. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
INVERSION BETWEEN 750-700MB. STILL GIVEN THE LIFT WITH THE
BOUNDARY AND WEAK WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO...MAY BE ABLE TO
SPARK A STORM OR TWO OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE STILL LOW
IN THIS SCENARIO BUT IF STORMS DO SPARK...THEN THERE IS A SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH HAIL AND WEAK TORNADOES AROUND THE BOUNDARY.
FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS...AIRMASS IS TOO CAPPED FOR STORMS.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATER
TONIGHT AND MOISTURE DEPTH MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. CURRENT ZONES ALREADY HAVE THIS COVERED.
FOR FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS WITH DRY LINE SETTING UP CLOSE TO THE COLORADO AND
KANSAS BORDER. SPC ALREADY HAS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA TARGETED FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH CAPES OVER 2000J/KG AND STRONG DIRECTION SHEAR
PROFILE. STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL STABILITY SO POPS WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS WITH STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY EVENING OVER FAR EASTERN PLAINS CLOSE TO THE NE AND KS
BORDERS. STORM DIRECTION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST THOUGH AND WILL
QUICKLY DEPART. A FEW AREAS OF FOG MAY POP UP ALONG THE NORTHERN
STATE BORDER OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE STATE WILL STAY IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AND ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR THE
PLAINS AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE PLAINS AND IN THE 30S TO 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRINGING IN SOME DRIER
AIR WHICH WILL BE LOWERING HUMIDITIES...MORE SO OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 10
PERCENT...WITH SOME WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND THE PALMER DIVIDE. CURRENTLY FUELS ARE DEEMED UNABLE TO CARRY
FIRE EASILY...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FUELS
SITUATION FOR SATURDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE STATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WHETHER TO KEEP IT
AN OPEN TROUGH AS THE GFS SHOWS...OR DIG IT SOUTH AND CUT IT OFF
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LIKE THE ECMWF SHOWS. WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS PERIOD
TO SHOW A TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AT APA/BJC WHILE BJC WILL REMAIN UNDER WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW
WITH STRONG BOUNDARY ORIENTED FROM BJC TO GXY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT LOW ENOUGH
THAT WON`T BE MENTIONED IN CURRENT TAF. IF THINGS DO DEVELOP THEN
WILL TRY AND PINPOINT TS IN RESPECTIVE TAF. AS LIKE LAST
NIGHT...STRATUS WILL INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS BUT AGAIN WILL
LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO APA/DEN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS. ISOLATED STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
MOVING AT 15-20KT SO FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS QUITE LOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN

000
FXUS65 KBOU 231621
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1021 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.SHORT TERM...INTERESTING DAY SHAPING UP WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
A ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OVER DENVER AREA. WELL DEFINED DENVER
CYCLONE THIS MORNING WITH A HOLE OF SUNSHINE FROM KAPA TO KDEN
WHILE STRATUS HAS WRAPPED THE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN DENVER. SOLID
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS BUT SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS
BORDERING THE HEATED AREAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AIRMASS
CAPPED BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH STILL SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING
NEEDED FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. HOWEVER... WITH THE ADDED
LIFT FROM THE BOUNDARY AND WEAK LIFT ALOFT IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK A STORM OR TWO. IF WE REALIZE OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
AROUND 77...THEN CAPE VALUES UP TO 1500J/KG ARE POSSIBLE.
INDEED...SEVERAL SHORT RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING HRRR/WRF SIMULATED
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME STORMS MOVING OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT SHEAR AS WELL FOR A FEW TORNADOS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH DIAMETER.

.AVIATION...VFR STILL AT APA/DEN WITH LOWER CEILINGS STILL AT BJC
WITH WELL DEFINED DENVER CYCLONE. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEN/APA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AT
BJC. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AFTER
22Z...POSSIBLY SEVERE...GIVEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
ALL DEPEND ON THE POTENTIAL HEATING TODAY WHICH MAY FALL A BIT
SHORT. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP ON THE CYCLONE BOUNDARY...WEAK
TORNADOS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD EFFECT APA/DEN. FOR NOW
WITH THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF STORMS OCCURRING WILL NOT MENTION IN
UPCOMING 18Z TAF`S.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...ISOLATED STORMS BUT WILL BE MOVING AT A DECENT CLIP
SO FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LOW TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013/

UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...NO CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST JUST FINE TUNING GRIDS
TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE SUNSHINE EARLY THIS AM OVER DENVER. STILL HIGH
STABILITY FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS TODAY AND CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAINS HAVE ENOUGH PUNCH TO OVERCOME
STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE IN THE
FLOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WAVE AND CYCLONE IN PLACE THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT A STORM MAY MOVE OVER THE ADJ PLAINS LATER TODAY.
WILL REASSESS STABILITY PROFILE THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER UPDATE
PLANNED LATER THIS AM.

AVIATION...DENVER CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS WITH BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 25KT AT APA/DEN WHILE BJC
HAS SHIFTED AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. STRATUS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND
PUSHING SOUTH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF DENVER WHILE LITTLE FINGERS
OF LOWER CLOUDS JUST WEST OF DIA. STILL THINK APA/DEN WILL REMAIN
VFR BUT JUST A VERY LOW PERCENT (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) CHANCE OF
A SCT-BKN CEILING AROUND 1000 FT AGL FOR A SHORT TIME BETWEEN
15-17Z AT KDEN. WILL NOT INTRODUCE THIS LOW PROB AT KDEN FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...THE BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT HAVE KEPT THE
LOW CLOUDS AWAY FROM DEN AND APA EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING A BIG HOLE OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER DOUGLAS
COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO THE DENVER AREA...INCLUDING KDEN AND
APA. AT THIS TIME DOUBT THE STRATUS COULD MAKE IT GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY
REMOVED THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THESE TERMINALS. NO CHANGES TO BJC
WITH SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS ONGOING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND COOLER
AIR INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. EXPECT
THE CLOUDS EAST OF DENVER AREA TO HANG ON UNTIL EARLY AFTER AND SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT BREAK OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ALL DAY OVER FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS COOLER AIR WILL CREATE A STRONG CAP. THIS CAP
PLUS SUBSIDENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE STATE WILL
MAKE IT VERY HARD FOR CONVECTION TO FORM TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS TODAY. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TODAY OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS WILL BE ABOVE THE INVERSION...SO
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF FORMING. MOST MODELS SHOW A LITTLE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY CARRY THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
AND WILL HAVE 10 POPS IN THE FORECAST.

LOW LEVEL WINDS START TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS
WILL SCOUR OUT THE MOIST AIRMASS. THE MOISTURE SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT PLANNED AT THIS TIME. ON
FRIDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWFA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE
MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE BEST CHC OF TSTMS IN THE AFTN
AND EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA E BOUNDARY. BY THE
AFTN THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM AROUND STERLING TO
AKRON TO LIMON. FCST CAPES FM THE NAM12 FCST SOUNDINGS 1500-2000
J/KG WITH ENOUGH 0-3 KM HELICITIES NEAR 100 M2/S2 TO PRODUCE A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER WEST...DRIER LOW LEVELS WITH JUST A
FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...THE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHC OF ANY TSTMS THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. A
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK BUT THE
MDLS OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. THERE MAY BE A SLGTLY BETTER
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL HOWEVER WILL KEEP
THE FCST DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 18Z. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1000 TO 2500 FEET. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET...IF THIS OCCUR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY
WILL OCCUR. JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY
23-03Z. MAY BE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY 12Z FRIDAY. EAST WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HYDROLOGY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE STORMS ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP. SO THE STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED. THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE AROUND SO A PERIOD OF BRIEF
HEAVY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF ONE
INCH IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN

000
FXUS65 KBOU 231447
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
839 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.SHORT TERM...NO CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST JUST FINE TUNING GRIDS
TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE SUNSHINE EARLY THIS AM OVER DENVER. STILL HIGH
STABILITY FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS TODAY AND CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAINS HAVE ENOUGH PUNCH TO OVERCOME
STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE IN THE
FLOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WAVE AND CYCLONE IN PLACE THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT A STORM MAY MOVE OVER THE ADJ PLAINS LATER TODAY.
WILL REASSESS STABILITY PROFILE THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER UPDATE
PLANNED LATER THIS AM.

.AVIATION...DENVER CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS WITH BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 25KT AT APA/DEN WHILE BJC
HAS SHIFTED AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. STRATUS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND
PUSHING SOUTH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF DENVER WHILE LITTLE FINGERS
OF LOWER CLOUDS JUST WEST OF DIA. STILL THINK APA/DEN WILL REMAIN
VFR BUT JUST A VERY LOW PERCENT (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) CHANCE OF
A SCT-BKN CEILING AROUND 1000 FT AGL FOR A SHORT TIME BETWEEN
15-17Z AT KDEN. WILL NOT INTRODUCE THIS LOW PROB AT KDEN FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...THE BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT HAVE KEPT THE
LOW CLOUDS AWAY FROM DEN AND APA EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING A BIG HOLE OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER DOUGLAS
COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO THE DENVER AREA...INCLUDING KDEN AND
APA. AT THIS TIME DOUBT THE STRATUS COULD MAKE IT GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY
REMOVED THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THESE TERMINALS. NO CHANGES TO BJC
WITH SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS ONGOING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND COOLER
AIR INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. EXPECT
THE CLOUDS EAST OF DENVER AREA TO HANG ON UNTIL EARLY AFTER AND SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT BREAK OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ALL DAY OVER FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS COOLER AIR WILL CREATE A STRONG CAP. THIS CAP
PLUS SUBSIDENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE STATE WILL
MAKE IT VERY HARD FOR CONVECTION TO FORM TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS TODAY. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TODAY OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS WILL BE ABOVE THE INVERSION...SO
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF FORMING. MOST MODELS SHOW A LITTLE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY CARRY THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
AND WILL HAVE 10 POPS IN THE FORECAST.

LOW LEVEL WINDS START TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS
WILL SCOUR OUT THE MOIST AIRMASS. THE MOISTURE SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT PLANNED AT THIS TIME. ON
FRIDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWFA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE
MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE BEST CHC OF TSTMS IN THE AFTN
AND EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA E BOUNDARY. BY THE
AFTN THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM AROUND STERLING TO
AKRON TO LIMON. FCST CAPES FM THE NAM12 FCST SOUNDINGS 1500-2000
J/KG WITH ENOUGH 0-3 KM HELICITIES NEAR 100 M2/S2 TO PRODUCE A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER WEST...DRIER LOW LEVELS WITH JUST A
FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...THE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHC OF ANY TSTMS THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. A
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK BUT THE
MDLS OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. THERE MAY BE A SLGTLY BETTER
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL HOWEVER WILL KEEP
THE FCST DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 18Z. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1000 TO 2500 FEET. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET...IF THIS OCCUR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY
WILL OCCUR. JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY
23-03Z. MAY BE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY 12Z FRIDAY. EAST WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HYDROLOGY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE STORMS ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP. SO THE STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED. THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE AROUND SO A PERIOD OF BRIEF
HEAVY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF ONE
INCH IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN

000
FXUS65 KBOU 231439
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
839 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.SHORT TERM...NO CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST JUST FINE TUNINGSKY
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE SUNSHINE EARLY THIS AM OVER DENVER.
STILL HIGH STABILITY FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS TODAY AND CHALLENGE
WILL BE IF ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAINS HAVE ENOUGH
PUNCH TO OVERCOME STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. THERE
IS A WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS WHICH WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WAVE AND CYCLONE IN PLACE
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A STORM MAY MOVE OVER THE ADJ
PLAINS LATER TODAY. WILL REASSESS STABILITY PROFILE THIS MORNING
WITH ANOTHER UPDATE PLANNED LATER THIS AM.

.AVIATION...DENVER CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS WITH BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 25KT AT APA/DEN WHILE BJC
HAS SHIFTED AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. STRATUS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND
PUSHING SOUTH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF DENVER WHILE LITTLE FINGERS
OF LOWER CLOUDS JUST WEST OF DIA. STILL THINK APA/DEN WILL REMAIN
VFR BUT JUST A VERY LOW PERCENT (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) CHANCE OF
A SCT-BKN CEILING AROUND 1000 FT AGL FOR A SHORT TIME BETWEEN
15-17Z AT KDEN. WILL NOT INTRODUCE THIS LOW PROB AT KDEN FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...THE BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT HAVE KEPT THE
LOW CLOUDS AWAY FROM DEN AND APA EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING A BIG HOLE OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER DOUGLAS
COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO THE DENVER AREA...INCLUDING KDEN AND
APA. AT THIS TIME DOUBT THE STRATUS COULD MAKE IT GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY
REMOVED THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THESE TERMINALS. NO CHANGES TO BJC
WITH SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS ONGOING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND COOLER
AIR INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. EXPECT
THE CLOUDS EAST OF DENVER AREA TO HANG ON UNTIL EARLY AFTER AND SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT BREAK OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ALL DAY OVER FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS COOLER AIR WILL CREATE A STRONG CAP. THIS CAP
PLUS SUBSIDENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE STATE WILL
MAKE IT VERY HARD FOR CONVECTION TO FORM TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS TODAY. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TODAY OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS WILL BE ABOVE THE INVERSION...SO
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF FORMING. MOST MODELS SHOW A LITTLE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY CARRY THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
AND WILL HAVE 10 POPS IN THE FORECAST.

LOW LEVEL WINDS START TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS
WILL SCOUR OUT THE MOIST AIRMASS. THE MOISTURE SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT PLANNED AT THIS TIME. ON
FRIDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWFA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE
MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE BEST CHC OF TSTMS IN THE AFTN
AND EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA E BOUNDARY. BY THE
AFTN THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM AROUND STERLING TO
AKRON TO LIMON. FCST CAPES FM THE NAM12 FCST SOUNDINGS 1500-2000
J/KG WITH ENOUGH 0-3 KM HELICITIES NEAR 100 M2/S2 TO PRODUCE A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER WEST...DRIER LOW LEVELS WITH JUST A
FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...THE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHC OF ANY TSTMS THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. A
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK BUT THE
MDLS OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. THERE MAY BE A SLGTLY BETTER
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL HOWEVER WILL KEEP
THE FCST DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 18Z. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1000 TO 2500 FEET. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET...IF THIS OCCUR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY
WILL OCCUR. JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY
23-03Z. MAY BE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY 12Z FRIDAY. EAST WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HYDROLOGY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE STORMS ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP. SO THE STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED. THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE AROUND SO A PERIOD OF BRIEF
HEAVY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF ONE
INCH IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN

000
FXUS65 KBOU 231256
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
656 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION...THE BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT HAVE KEPT THE
LOW CLOUDS AWAY FROM DEN AND APA EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING A BIG HOLE OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER DOUGLAS
COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO THE DENVER AREA...INCLUDING KDEN AND
APA. AT THIS TIME DOUBT THE STRATUS COULD MAKE IT GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY
REMOVED THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THESE TERMINALS. NO CHANGES TO BJC
WITH SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS ONGOING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND COOLER
AIR INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. EXPECT
THE CLOUDS EAST OF DENVER AREA TO HANG ON UNTIL EARLY AFTER AND SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT BREAK OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ALL DAY OVER FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS COOLER AIR WILL CREATE A STRONG CAP. THIS CAP
PLUS SUBSIDENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE STATE WILL
MAKE IT VERY HARD FOR CONVECTION TO FORM TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS TODAY. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TODAY OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS WILL BE ABOVE THE INVERSION...SO
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF FORMING. MOST MODELS SHOW A LITTLE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY CARRY THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
AND WILL HAVE 10 POPS IN THE FORECAST.

LOW LEVEL WINDS START TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS
WILL SCOUR OUT THE MOIST AIRMASS. THE MOISTURE SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT PLANNED AT THIS TIME. ON
FRIDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWFA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE
MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE BEST CHC OF TSTMS IN THE AFTN
AND EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA E BOUNDARY. BY THE
AFTN THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM AROUND STERLING TO
AKRON TO LIMON. FCST CAPES FM THE NAM12 FCST SOUNDINGS 1500-2000
J/KG WITH ENOUGH 0-3 KM HELICITIES NEAR 100 M2/S2 TO PRODUCE A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER WEST...DRIER LOW LEVELS WITH JUST A
FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...THE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHC OF ANY TSTMS THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. A
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK BUT THE
MDLS OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. THERE MAY BE A SLGTLY BETTER
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL HOWEVER WILL KEEP
THE FCST DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 18Z. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1000 TO 2500 FEET. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET...IF THIS OCCUR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY
WILL OCCUR. JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY
23-03Z. MAY BE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY 12Z FRIDAY. EAST WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HYDROLOGY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE STORMS ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP. SO THE STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED. THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE AROUND SO A PERIOD OF BRIEF
HEAVY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF ONE
INCH IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN

000
FXUS65 KBOU 230912
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
312 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND COOLER
AIR INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. EXPECT
THE CLOUDS EAST OF DENVER AREA TO HANG ON UNTIL EARLY AFTER AND SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT BREAK OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ALL DAY OVER FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS COOLER AIR WILL CREATE A STRONG CAP. THIS CAP
PLUS SUBSIDENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE STATE WILL
MAKE IT VERY HARD FOR CONVECTION TO FORM TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS TODAY. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TODAY OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS WILL BE ABOVE THE INVERSION...SO
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF FORMING. MOST MODELS SHOW A LITTLE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY CARRY THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
AND WILL HAVE 10 POPS IN THE FORECAST.

LOW LEVEL WINDS START TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS
WILL SCOUR OUT THE MOIST AIRMASS. THE MOISTURE SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT PLANNED AT THIS TIME. ON
FRIDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWFA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE
MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE BEST CHC OF TSTMS IN THE AFTN
AND EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA E BOUNDARY. BY THE
AFTN THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM AROUND STERLING TO
AKRON TO LIMON. FCST CAPES FM THE NAM12 FCST SOUNDINGS 1500-2000
J/KG WITH ENOUGH 0-3 KM HELICITIES NEAR 100 M2/S2 TO PRODUCE A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER WEST...DRIER LOW LEVELS WITH JUST A
FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...THE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHC OF ANY TSTMS THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. A
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK BUT THE
MDLS OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. THERE MAY BE A SLGTLY BETTER
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL HOWEVER WILL KEEP
THE FCST DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 18Z. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1000 TO 2500 FEET. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET...IF THIS OCCUR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY
WILL OCCUR. JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY
23-03Z. MAY BE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY 12Z FRIDAY. EAST WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE STORMS ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP. SO THE STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED. THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE AROUND SO A PERIOD OF BRIEF
HEAVY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF ONE
INCH IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...MEIER

000
FXUS65 KBOU 230215
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
815 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.SHORT TERM...A WK DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING ACROSS AND WAS COMBINING
WITH INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW TO GENERATE SOME SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS ALONG THE FNT RANGE. APPEARS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

.AVIATION...GUSTY ENE WINDS BEHIND FNTL BNDRY SHOULD DECREASE IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WK CONVECTION WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AIRPORT
BUT SHOULD END BY 03Z. THERE IS A BNDRY WITH SSW WINDS APPROACHING
DIA HOWEVER LAST FEW RADAR SCANS HAVE SHOWN THIS BNDRY WEAKENING
SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP WINDS MAINLY ELY OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE SOME
STRATUS DVLP AFTER 11Z LINGERING THRU THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON
THU.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...COLORADO UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WHILE AT THE
SURFACE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT WITH DEVELOPING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE ALSO TRYING TO
DEVELOP AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON. 88D SHOWING WEAK ECHOES BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER EAST SLOPES WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
DUE TO THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO
BE HIGH BASED WITH GUSTY WINDS WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. THE
INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO LATER TONIGHT WITH STRATUS/FOG OVER THE PLAINS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE
60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSIONS OVER THE PLAINS WITH STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
REMOVE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE
ONLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER MOUNTAINS AND ELEVATED TERRAIN
ABOVE THE INVERSIONS. EVEN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIGHT
GIVEN LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG OVER THE PLAINS. TOWARDS THE EASTERN STATE
BORDER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR SOME AREAS OF
DRIZZLE TO OCCUR. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING AS THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES FURTHER OUT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. A THETA E
RIDGE WILL BE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
ALONG THE EASTERN CO PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING
ALONG THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL TO ERODE ANY REMAINING INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 80S OVER THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE 60S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...THIS
SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL MIX WITH CAPES OF
1400-1800 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40 KTS TO ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
CHEYENNE, WY TO LIMON. AREAS TOWARD THE EASTERN STATE LINE MAY SEE
STRONGER STORMS. IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER...THE INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE BRINGING IN DRIER AND WARMER AIR THAT
WILL PRODUCE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AND WINDS
GUSTING IN THE 20-30 MPH. HOWEVER FUELS ARE LISTED AS STILL BEING
AFFECTED BY THE LATE SEASON PRECIPITATION.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY LAST INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. SATURDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANGE DAY TO DAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
REMAINS ALOFT AND EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE TO DAILY TEMPERATURES.
THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS EACH DAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY MAY SEE
MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY STATEWIDE AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES BREAKS DOWN A BIT AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA.

AVIATION...ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/TS FROM 22-03Z OVER THE
AREA WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED. STILL OVERALL AREAL
COVERAGE SMALL SO NO MENTION OF TS IN TAF`S FOR NOW. STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT BUT UNCLEAR HOW SOLID THE DECK WILL BECOME
OVER TERMINAL SITES. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED CLOUDS AT APA WITH
LESSER CHANCES OF MVFR CONDITIONS. WRF SIMULATED IMAGERY SHOWING
HOLE IN THE STRATUS COVER OVER DENVER DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT DEN/APA. NO STORMS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH
STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ALL DAY.

HYDROLOGY...ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AMOUNTS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. NO FLOODING ISSUES EXPECTED
WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK