Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KBOU 141656
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
956 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

W/NWLY SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN QUITE STRONG ABOVE TIMBERLINE THIS
MORNING WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UPWARDS OF 70 MPH. HIGH MTN CAMS
INDICATED CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW MAINLY ABOVE TIMBERLINE.
HOWEVER IN THE PAST HOURS...THESE SAME WIND SENSORS HAVE SHOWN A
DROP OFF IN WIND SPEEDS. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH MODEL GUIDANCE AS
IT INDICATES A REDUCTION IN MTN TOP FLOW DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HRS...
THEN A STEADY INCREASE AS THE NOSE OF A 120-130KT JET PASSES OVER
NRN COLORADO. AS FOR THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...
SLOW GOING NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN A STEADY INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS 700-500MB QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC ASCENT INCREASING AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MODELS
SHOW SWEEPING ACROSS N-CNTRL/NERN COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CONVEYOR PACIFIC MOISTURE UPSTREAM OF NWRN COLORADO DOES NOT
LOOK TERRIBLY DEEP...BUT COMBO OF LARGE SCALE LIFT AND OROGRAPHIC
FORCING SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE GENERATING THE SNOW AMOUNTS
INDICATED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE NRN MTN
ZONES 31..33-34 STARTING AT 19Z TODAY. STG WINDS...BITTER COLD
WIND CHILLS AND CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW MAY POSE MORE OF A
PROBLEM FOR MTN RESIDENTS AND HIGH COUNTRY TRAVELERS ESPLY THOSE
CROSSING THE HIGH PASSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...WESTERLY WINDS IN THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE
45-55 MPH RANGE. NEARBY PLAINS ALREADY SEEING THESE GUSTY WLY
WINDS WITH THE STNRY MTN WAVE HELPING TO MIX DOWN STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT. SHOULD SEE THE STRONGER GUSTY WLY WINDS FIRST WITHIN THE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND THEN OUT ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CLOUD BASES LOWERING OVER
THE NERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE.
ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS OUT THERE...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT LIKELY AS THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER APPEARS QUITE DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

RATHER STG WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NRN CO THRU TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS BY MIDDAY WITH BETTER
LAPSE RATES BY AFTN.  THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SNOW BY
AFTN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70.  AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT
HOWEVER WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHTER OROGRAPHIC SNOW IN MOST
MTN AREAS.  MEANWHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
ABV 10000 FT.  WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR MTN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-70 THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT.  PORTIONS OF ZN 31 COULD GET CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA IF LATEST HRRR IS CORRECT.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS A PACIFIC FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTN WITH
GUSTY NWLY WINDS DEVELOPING FM THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH
STG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IN PLACE PCPN POTENTIAL OVER NERN CO LOOKS
TO BE RATHER LOW HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME MID LVL QG ASCENT
LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SO WILL KEEP IN A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL BE COOLER THIS
AFTN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NERN CO.

AS FOR HIGH WIND THREAT OVERALL THERE IS NEVER REALLY MUCH OF A MTN
WAVE FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT.  THUS DON`T
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW
BRIEF HIGHER GUSTS IN THE NORMAL WINDY AREAS IN AND NR THE
FOOTHILLS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

MODELS HAVE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. JET LEVEL SPEEDS ARE 80 TO 110
KNOTS ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE WEAK
DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY DOWNSLOPING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME PROGGED OVER THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN IT DECREASES. THERE IS
SOME OVER THE PLAINS...MOSTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE PRETTY DRY IN ALL AREAS. THE QPF
FIELDS SHOWS LIMITED SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS...NOTHING FOR THE PLAINS...TO DRY AND
DOWNSLOPING. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THERE IS SOME MOISTURE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS HELP WITH OROGRAPHICS...HOWEVER...
MOISTURE DECREASES SLOWLY THROUGH THOSE TWO PERIODS...THERE IS
SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND NO HELP FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
CURRENT GFE GRIDS HAVE 50-80% POPS IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...THIS LOOK REASONABLE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
HIGHEST IN ZONE 31...BUT HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S.
TUESDAY HIGHS ARE 1-2 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS
...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THEN PUSHES
THROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. FLAT UPPER RIDGE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED DON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
ENERGY AND MOISTURE FOR LIMITED MOUNTAIN POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
ALL FOUR DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 955 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

WESTERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY TAKEN HOLD OF THE DENVER METRO AREA
WITH THE MTN WAVE AND LEE TROUGH MOVING OFF AND AWAY FROM THE
FRONT RANGE. CANNOT DISCOUNT OCCASIONAL S-SELY WINDS AT KAPA AND
KDEN NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT PREVAILING WIND SHOULD BE W-NWLY.
CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS...WINDS AT KBJC SHOULD STAY W-NWLY REST OF
THE DAY AND AT TIMES QUITE STRONG WITH PEAK GUSTS POTENTIALLY TO
AROUND 40KTS. WIND SPEEDS NOT LIKELY TO BE AS STRONG AT KDEN AND
KAPA BUT GUSTS TO 30 KTS OR SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP TODAY AND CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET
AGL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ031-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 141046
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
346 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

RATHER STG WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NRN CO THRU TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS BY MIDDAY WITH BETTER
LAPSE RATES BY AFTN.  THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SNOW BY
AFTN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70.  AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT
HOWEVER WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHTER OROGRAPHIC SNOW IN MOST
MTN AREAS.  MEANWHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
ABV 10000 FT.  WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR MTN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-70 THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT.  PORTIONS OF ZN 31 COULD GET CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA IF LATEST HRRR IS CORRECT.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS A PACIFIC FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTN WITH
GUSTY NWLY WINDS DEVELOPING FM THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH
STG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IN PLACE PCPN POTENTIAL OVER NERN CO LOOKS
TO BE RATHER LOW HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME MID LVL QG ASCENT
LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SO WILL KEEP IN A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL BE COOLER THIS
AFTN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NERN CO.

AS FOR HIGH WIND THREAT OVERALL THERE IS NEVER REALLY MUCH OF A MTN
WAVE FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT.  THUS DON`T
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW
BRIEF HIGHER GUSTS IN THE NORMAL WINDY AREAS IN AND NR THE
FOOTHILLS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

MODELS HAVE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. JET LEVEL SPEEDS ARE 80 TO 110
KNOTS ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE WEAK
DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY DOWNSLOPING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME PROGGED OVER THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN IT DECREASES. THERE IS
SOME OVER THE PLAINS...MOSTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE PRETTY DRY IN ALL AREAS. THE QPF
FIELDS SHOWS LIMITED SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS...NOTHING FOR THE PLAINS...TO DRY AND
DOWNSLOPING. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THERE IS SOME MOISTURE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS HELP WITH OROGRAPHICS...HOWEVER...
MOISTURE DECREASES SLOWLY THROUGH THOSE TWO PERIODS...THERE IS
SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND NO HELP FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
CURRENT GFE GRIDS HAVE 50-80% POPS IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...THIS LOOK REASONABLE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
HIGHEST IN ZONE 31...BUT HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S.
TUESDAY HIGHS ARE 1-2 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS
...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THEN PUSHES
THROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. FLAT UPPER RIDGE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED DON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
ENERGY AND MOISTURE FOR LIMITED MOUNTAIN POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
ALL FOUR DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE BECOME SLY.  BY 16Z THEY MAY BECOME
MORE WLY AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE WNW DIRECTION BY EARLY
AFTN.  LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME GUSTS FM 30 TO 35 MPH MAY OCCUR FM
20Z TO AROUND 00Z.  BY EARLY EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WSW AND
THEN SSW BY 06Z.  AS FOR CLOUD COVER MAY SEE CEILINGS BRIEFLY DROP
DOWN TO 8000 FT LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING AS A FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WHICH MAY PRODUCE VIRGA OR A FEW SPRINKLES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ031-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 141046
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
346 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

RATHER STG WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NRN CO THRU TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS BY MIDDAY WITH BETTER
LAPSE RATES BY AFTN.  THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SNOW BY
AFTN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70.  AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT
HOWEVER WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHTER OROGRAPHIC SNOW IN MOST
MTN AREAS.  MEANWHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
ABV 10000 FT.  WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR MTN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-70 THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT.  PORTIONS OF ZN 31 COULD GET CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA IF LATEST HRRR IS CORRECT.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS A PACIFIC FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTN WITH
GUSTY NWLY WINDS DEVELOPING FM THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH
STG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IN PLACE PCPN POTENTIAL OVER NERN CO LOOKS
TO BE RATHER LOW HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME MID LVL QG ASCENT
LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SO WILL KEEP IN A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL BE COOLER THIS
AFTN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NERN CO.

AS FOR HIGH WIND THREAT OVERALL THERE IS NEVER REALLY MUCH OF A MTN
WAVE FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT.  THUS DON`T
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW
BRIEF HIGHER GUSTS IN THE NORMAL WINDY AREAS IN AND NR THE
FOOTHILLS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

MODELS HAVE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. JET LEVEL SPEEDS ARE 80 TO 110
KNOTS ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE WEAK
DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY DOWNSLOPING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME PROGGED OVER THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN IT DECREASES. THERE IS
SOME OVER THE PLAINS...MOSTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE PRETTY DRY IN ALL AREAS. THE QPF
FIELDS SHOWS LIMITED SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS...NOTHING FOR THE PLAINS...TO DRY AND
DOWNSLOPING. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THERE IS SOME MOISTURE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS HELP WITH OROGRAPHICS...HOWEVER...
MOISTURE DECREASES SLOWLY THROUGH THOSE TWO PERIODS...THERE IS
SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND NO HELP FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
CURRENT GFE GRIDS HAVE 50-80% POPS IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...THIS LOOK REASONABLE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
HIGHEST IN ZONE 31...BUT HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S.
TUESDAY HIGHS ARE 1-2 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS
...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THEN PUSHES
THROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. FLAT UPPER RIDGE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED DON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
ENERGY AND MOISTURE FOR LIMITED MOUNTAIN POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
ALL FOUR DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE BECOME SLY.  BY 16Z THEY MAY BECOME
MORE WLY AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE WNW DIRECTION BY EARLY
AFTN.  LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME GUSTS FM 30 TO 35 MPH MAY OCCUR FM
20Z TO AROUND 00Z.  BY EARLY EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WSW AND
THEN SSW BY 06Z.  AS FOR CLOUD COVER MAY SEE CEILINGS BRIEFLY DROP
DOWN TO 8000 FT LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING AS A FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WHICH MAY PRODUCE VIRGA OR A FEW SPRINKLES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ031-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK





000
FXUS65 KBOU 141046
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
346 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

RATHER STG WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NRN CO THRU TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS BY MIDDAY WITH BETTER
LAPSE RATES BY AFTN.  THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SNOW BY
AFTN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70.  AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT
HOWEVER WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHTER OROGRAPHIC SNOW IN MOST
MTN AREAS.  MEANWHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
ABV 10000 FT.  WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR MTN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-70 THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT.  PORTIONS OF ZN 31 COULD GET CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA IF LATEST HRRR IS CORRECT.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS A PACIFIC FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTN WITH
GUSTY NWLY WINDS DEVELOPING FM THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH
STG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IN PLACE PCPN POTENTIAL OVER NERN CO LOOKS
TO BE RATHER LOW HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME MID LVL QG ASCENT
LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SO WILL KEEP IN A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL BE COOLER THIS
AFTN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NERN CO.

AS FOR HIGH WIND THREAT OVERALL THERE IS NEVER REALLY MUCH OF A MTN
WAVE FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT.  THUS DON`T
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW
BRIEF HIGHER GUSTS IN THE NORMAL WINDY AREAS IN AND NR THE
FOOTHILLS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

MODELS HAVE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. JET LEVEL SPEEDS ARE 80 TO 110
KNOTS ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE WEAK
DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY DOWNSLOPING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME PROGGED OVER THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN IT DECREASES. THERE IS
SOME OVER THE PLAINS...MOSTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE PRETTY DRY IN ALL AREAS. THE QPF
FIELDS SHOWS LIMITED SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS...NOTHING FOR THE PLAINS...TO DRY AND
DOWNSLOPING. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THERE IS SOME MOISTURE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS HELP WITH OROGRAPHICS...HOWEVER...
MOISTURE DECREASES SLOWLY THROUGH THOSE TWO PERIODS...THERE IS
SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND NO HELP FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
CURRENT GFE GRIDS HAVE 50-80% POPS IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...THIS LOOK REASONABLE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
HIGHEST IN ZONE 31...BUT HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S.
TUESDAY HIGHS ARE 1-2 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS
...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THEN PUSHES
THROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. FLAT UPPER RIDGE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED DON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
ENERGY AND MOISTURE FOR LIMITED MOUNTAIN POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
ALL FOUR DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE BECOME SLY.  BY 16Z THEY MAY BECOME
MORE WLY AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE WNW DIRECTION BY EARLY
AFTN.  LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME GUSTS FM 30 TO 35 MPH MAY OCCUR FM
20Z TO AROUND 00Z.  BY EARLY EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WSW AND
THEN SSW BY 06Z.  AS FOR CLOUD COVER MAY SEE CEILINGS BRIEFLY DROP
DOWN TO 8000 FT LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING AS A FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WHICH MAY PRODUCE VIRGA OR A FEW SPRINKLES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ031-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 140300
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
800 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT AS IT RACED SOUTH THROUGH WYOMING AND NOW
PUSHING INTO THE STATE. LOOKS LIKE THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL
SEE GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND
PERHAPS A FEW RAIN DROPS OR FLAKES FOR A SHORT PERIOD. TIMING THE
FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE DENVER AREA AROUND 930 TO 10 PM
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH BRIEFLY...THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 553 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN THE FRONT RANGE
AND HAVE ACTUALLY SPREAD A BIT FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
COLDER AIR IS SCOURED OUT. PEAK GUSTS IN WIND PRONE AREAS RIGHT
IN/NEXT TO THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS NEAR 60 MPH...WITH GUSTS
30-40 MPH SPREADING ONTO THE NEARBY ADJACENT PLAINS. THE DOWNSLOPE
AHEAD OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SEEMS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS
GOING FOR MOST OF THE EVENING BEFORE COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH...WYOMING BORDER TOWARD 730 PM AND DENVER TOWARD 10 PM.
GUSTY WINDS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES. MAIN FORECAST UPDATE REFLECTS LATEST TEMPERATURE CHANGES
AND INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE PLAINS BOTH AHEAD OF AND JUST
BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRUSH ACROSS COLORADO AS IT MOVES ACROSS WY LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVNG. WEAK QG ASCENT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH THIS. SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A MOUNTAIN
WAVE DEVELOPING THIS AFTN/EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THEN MORE
BORA LIKE OVERNIGHT. NO HIGHLIGHTS BUT WILL KEEP SOME GUSTS TO 60
MPH ABOVE TIMBERLINE AND IN THE FOOTHILLS. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING...SO WIND SHOULD BE MORE
NORTH/NORTHEAST IN THE EVENING. WL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOG
NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER THAT HAS BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE CHC SOME OF THIS COULD SLIP BACK INTO DENVER FOLLOWING
THE FRONT. OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE PATCHY IF IT DOES DEVELOP.
ON SUNDAY...THE NOSE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDES ACROSS
NORTHERN CO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE FRONT
RANGE MOUNTAINS. BEST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE ALONG NORTH
AND WEST FACING SLOPES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES 7-8C/KM IN THE AFTN. STRONG WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY SO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
PASSES. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...DOWNSLOPE WEST OF I-25 MAY
NEGATE PCPN THERE BUT ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE AND CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY EVENING. THE JET AXIS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST COLORADO AT 00Z MONDAY PUTTING THE MOUNTAINS UNDER THE
FRONT LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN STATES...THE JET AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. THE MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE BEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY EVENING WHEN LIFT FROM THE JET
IS OVERHEAD. ONCE THE JET SHIFTS EAST...SNOW INTENSITY SHOULD
DECREASE. LAPSE RATES WILL JUST BE OK...AT 5-7 C/KM SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS WYOMING AND THE JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE LIGHT. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FOOTHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONTO THE
PLAINS MONDAY DUE TO GOOD MIXING.

MOISTURE WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE SNOW TO DECREASE AND COME TO AN END IN THE MOUNTAINS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME 70S ALSO POSSIBLE. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY CLIMB
ABOVE 60 AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS THROUGH 04Z ALTHOUGH THEY COULD LIGHTEN
UP AT TIMES. KBJC WILL SEE HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
THEN FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE DENVER METRO
AREA AIRPORTS AROUND 0430Z WITH AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS TO AT LEAST 30 KNOTS. THEN WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND TURN MORE
EASTERLY THROUGH 08Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. BY 12Z...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL AND HOLD
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING SUFFICIENTLY
TO ALLOW MORE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT AFTER 21Z. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND BRIEF ILS LANDING CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE VISUAL LANDING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS WITH PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THIS
EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH/KRIEDERMAN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 140054
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
554 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN THE FRONT RANGE
AND HAVE ACTUALLY SPREAD A BIT FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
COLDER AIR IS SCOURED OUT. PEAK GUSTS IN WIND PRONE AREAS RIGHT
IN/NEXT TO THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS NEAR 60 MPH...WITH GUSTS
30-40 MPH SPREADING ONTO THE NEARBY ADJACENT PLAINS. THE DOWNSLOPE
AHEAD OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SEEMS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS
GOING FOR MOST OF THE EVENING BEFORE COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH...WYOMING BORDER TOWARD 730 PM AND DENVER TOWARD 10 PM.
GUSTY WINDS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES. MAIN FORECAST UPDATE REFLECTS LATEST TEMPERATURE CHANGES
AND INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE PLAINS BOTH AHEAD OF AND JUST
BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRUSH ACROSS COLORADO AS IT MOVES ACROSS WY LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVNG. WEAK QG ASCENT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH THIS. SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A MOUNTAIN
WAVE DEVELOPING THIS AFTN/EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THEN MORE
BORA LIKE OVERNIGHT. NO HIGHLIGHTS BUT WILL KEEP SOME GUSTS TO 60
MPH ABOVE TIMBERLINE AND IN THE FOOTHILLS. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING...SO WIND SHOULD BE MORE
NORTH/NORTHEAST IN THE EVENING. WL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOG
NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER THAT HAS BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE CHC SOME OF THIS COULD SLIP BACK INTO DENVER FOLLOWING
THE FRONT. OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE PATCHY IF IT DOES DEVELOP.
ON SUNDAY...THE NOSE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDES ACROSS
NORTHERN CO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE FRONT
RANGE MOUNTAINS. BEST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE ALONG NORTH
AND WEST FACING SLOPES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES 7-8C/KM IN THE AFTN. STRONG WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY SO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
PASSES. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...DOWNSLOPE WEST OF I-25 MAY
NEGATE PCPN THERE BUT ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE AND CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY EVENING. THE JET AXIS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST COLORADO AT 00Z MONDAY PUTTING THE MOUNTAINS UNDER THE
FRONT LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN STATES...THE JET AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. THE MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE BEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY EVENING WHEN LIFT FROM THE JET
IS OVERHEAD. ONCE THE JET SHIFTS EAST...SNOW INTENSITY SHOULD
DECREASE. LAPSE RATES WILL JUST BE OK...AT 5-7 C/KM SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS WYOMING AND THE JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE LIGHT. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FOOTHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONTO THE
PLAINS MONDAY DUE TO GOOD MIXING.

MOISTURE WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE SNOW TO DECREASE AND COME TO AN END IN THE MOUNTAINS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME 70S ALSO POSSIBLE. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY CLIMB
ABOVE 60 AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 553 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS THROUGH 04Z ALTHOUGH THEY COULD LIGHTEN UP AT
TIMES. KBJC WILL SEE HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THEN
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE DENVER METRO AREA
AIRPORTS AROUND 05Z WITH AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
TO AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. THEN WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND TURN MORE
EASTERLY THROUGH 08Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. BY 12Z...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL AND HOLD
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING SUFFICIENTLY
TO ALLOW MORE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT AFTER 21Z. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND BRIEF ILS LANDING CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE VISUAL LANDING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS WITH PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THIS
EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS65 KBOU 140054
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
554 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN THE FRONT RANGE
AND HAVE ACTUALLY SPREAD A BIT FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
COLDER AIR IS SCOURED OUT. PEAK GUSTS IN WIND PRONE AREAS RIGHT
IN/NEXT TO THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS NEAR 60 MPH...WITH GUSTS
30-40 MPH SPREADING ONTO THE NEARBY ADJACENT PLAINS. THE DOWNSLOPE
AHEAD OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SEEMS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS
GOING FOR MOST OF THE EVENING BEFORE COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH...WYOMING BORDER TOWARD 730 PM AND DENVER TOWARD 10 PM.
GUSTY WINDS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES. MAIN FORECAST UPDATE REFLECTS LATEST TEMPERATURE CHANGES
AND INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE PLAINS BOTH AHEAD OF AND JUST
BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRUSH ACROSS COLORADO AS IT MOVES ACROSS WY LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVNG. WEAK QG ASCENT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH THIS. SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A MOUNTAIN
WAVE DEVELOPING THIS AFTN/EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THEN MORE
BORA LIKE OVERNIGHT. NO HIGHLIGHTS BUT WILL KEEP SOME GUSTS TO 60
MPH ABOVE TIMBERLINE AND IN THE FOOTHILLS. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING...SO WIND SHOULD BE MORE
NORTH/NORTHEAST IN THE EVENING. WL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOG
NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER THAT HAS BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE CHC SOME OF THIS COULD SLIP BACK INTO DENVER FOLLOWING
THE FRONT. OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE PATCHY IF IT DOES DEVELOP.
ON SUNDAY...THE NOSE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDES ACROSS
NORTHERN CO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE FRONT
RANGE MOUNTAINS. BEST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE ALONG NORTH
AND WEST FACING SLOPES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES 7-8C/KM IN THE AFTN. STRONG WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY SO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
PASSES. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...DOWNSLOPE WEST OF I-25 MAY
NEGATE PCPN THERE BUT ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE AND CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY EVENING. THE JET AXIS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST COLORADO AT 00Z MONDAY PUTTING THE MOUNTAINS UNDER THE
FRONT LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN STATES...THE JET AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. THE MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE BEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY EVENING WHEN LIFT FROM THE JET
IS OVERHEAD. ONCE THE JET SHIFTS EAST...SNOW INTENSITY SHOULD
DECREASE. LAPSE RATES WILL JUST BE OK...AT 5-7 C/KM SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS WYOMING AND THE JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE LIGHT. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FOOTHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONTO THE
PLAINS MONDAY DUE TO GOOD MIXING.

MOISTURE WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE SNOW TO DECREASE AND COME TO AN END IN THE MOUNTAINS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME 70S ALSO POSSIBLE. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY CLIMB
ABOVE 60 AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 553 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS THROUGH 04Z ALTHOUGH THEY COULD LIGHTEN UP AT
TIMES. KBJC WILL SEE HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THEN
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE DENVER METRO AREA
AIRPORTS AROUND 05Z WITH AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
TO AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. THEN WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND TURN MORE
EASTERLY THROUGH 08Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. BY 12Z...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL AND HOLD
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING SUFFICIENTLY
TO ALLOW MORE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT AFTER 21Z. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND BRIEF ILS LANDING CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE VISUAL LANDING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS WITH PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THIS
EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS65 KBOU 140054
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
554 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN THE FRONT RANGE
AND HAVE ACTUALLY SPREAD A BIT FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
COLDER AIR IS SCOURED OUT. PEAK GUSTS IN WIND PRONE AREAS RIGHT
IN/NEXT TO THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS NEAR 60 MPH...WITH GUSTS
30-40 MPH SPREADING ONTO THE NEARBY ADJACENT PLAINS. THE DOWNSLOPE
AHEAD OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SEEMS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS
GOING FOR MOST OF THE EVENING BEFORE COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH...WYOMING BORDER TOWARD 730 PM AND DENVER TOWARD 10 PM.
GUSTY WINDS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES. MAIN FORECAST UPDATE REFLECTS LATEST TEMPERATURE CHANGES
AND INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE PLAINS BOTH AHEAD OF AND JUST
BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRUSH ACROSS COLORADO AS IT MOVES ACROSS WY LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVNG. WEAK QG ASCENT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH THIS. SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A MOUNTAIN
WAVE DEVELOPING THIS AFTN/EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THEN MORE
BORA LIKE OVERNIGHT. NO HIGHLIGHTS BUT WILL KEEP SOME GUSTS TO 60
MPH ABOVE TIMBERLINE AND IN THE FOOTHILLS. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING...SO WIND SHOULD BE MORE
NORTH/NORTHEAST IN THE EVENING. WL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOG
NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER THAT HAS BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE CHC SOME OF THIS COULD SLIP BACK INTO DENVER FOLLOWING
THE FRONT. OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE PATCHY IF IT DOES DEVELOP.
ON SUNDAY...THE NOSE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDES ACROSS
NORTHERN CO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE FRONT
RANGE MOUNTAINS. BEST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE ALONG NORTH
AND WEST FACING SLOPES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES 7-8C/KM IN THE AFTN. STRONG WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY SO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
PASSES. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...DOWNSLOPE WEST OF I-25 MAY
NEGATE PCPN THERE BUT ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE AND CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY EVENING. THE JET AXIS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST COLORADO AT 00Z MONDAY PUTTING THE MOUNTAINS UNDER THE
FRONT LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN STATES...THE JET AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. THE MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE BEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY EVENING WHEN LIFT FROM THE JET
IS OVERHEAD. ONCE THE JET SHIFTS EAST...SNOW INTENSITY SHOULD
DECREASE. LAPSE RATES WILL JUST BE OK...AT 5-7 C/KM SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS WYOMING AND THE JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE LIGHT. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FOOTHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONTO THE
PLAINS MONDAY DUE TO GOOD MIXING.

MOISTURE WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE SNOW TO DECREASE AND COME TO AN END IN THE MOUNTAINS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME 70S ALSO POSSIBLE. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY CLIMB
ABOVE 60 AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 553 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS THROUGH 04Z ALTHOUGH THEY COULD LIGHTEN UP AT
TIMES. KBJC WILL SEE HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THEN
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE DENVER METRO AREA
AIRPORTS AROUND 05Z WITH AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
TO AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. THEN WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND TURN MORE
EASTERLY THROUGH 08Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. BY 12Z...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL AND HOLD
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING SUFFICIENTLY
TO ALLOW MORE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT AFTER 21Z. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND BRIEF ILS LANDING CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE VISUAL LANDING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS WITH PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THIS
EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 132150
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
250 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRUSH ACROSS COLORADO AS IT MOVES ACROSS WY LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVNG. WEAK QG ASCENT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH THIS. SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A MOUNTAIN
WAVE DEVELOPING THIS AFTN/EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THEN MORE
BORA LIKE OVERNIGHT. NO HIGHLIGHTS BUT WILL KEEP SOME GUSTS TO 60
MPH ABOVE TIMBERLINE AND IN THE FOOTHILLS. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING...SO WIND SHOULD BE MORE
NORTH/NORTHEAST IN THE EVENING. WL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOG
NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER THAT HAS BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE CHC SOME OF THIS COULD SLIP BACK INTO DENVER FOLLOWING
THE FRONT. OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE PATCHY IF IT DOES DEVELOP.
ON SUNDAY...THE NOSE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDES ACROSS
NORTHERN CO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE FRONT
RANGE MOUNTAINS. BEST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE ALONG NORTH
AND WEST FACING SLOPES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES 7-8C/KM IN THE AFTN. STRONG WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY SO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
PASSES. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...DOWNSLOPE WEST OF I-25 MAY
NEGATE PCPN THERE BUT ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE AND CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY EVENING. THE JET AXIS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST COLORADO AT 00Z MONDAY PUTTING THE MOUNTAINS UNDER THE
FRONT LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN STATES...THE JET AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. THE MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE BEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY EVENING WHEN LIFT FROM THE JET
IS OVERHEAD. ONCE THE JET SHIFTS EAST...SNOW INTENSITY SHOULD
DECREASE. LAPSE RATES WILL JUST BE OK...AT 5-7 C/KM SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS WYOMING AND THE JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE LIGHT. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FOOTHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONTO THE
PLAINS MONDAY DUE TO GOOD MIXING.

MOISTURE WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE SNOW TO DECREASE AND COME TO AN END IN THE MOUNTAINS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME 70S ALSO POSSIBLE. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY CLIMB
ABOVE 60 AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

VFR CONDITION ANTICIPATED THROUGH 21Z SUNDAY. N/NELY WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY MIDNIGHT. WL NEED TO WATCH OF
ANY LOW STRATUS/FOG SLIPS INTO KDEN THIS EVENING WITH THE NELY
WINDS...HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR TO BE DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME.
BY 12Z SUNDAY..S/SELY WINDS ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL TRANSITION BY
12Z SUNDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTN
WITH W/NWLY WINDS EXPECTED AT THAT TIME. SOME INSTBY IN THE AFTN
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF ILS RESTRICTIONS WITH OCNL BKN CIGS 050-060
KFT AGL AFTER 21Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 131704
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1004 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REMOVE THE FOG ADVISORY ALONG THE URBAN
CORRIDOR. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE IN MOST AREAS. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG TOWARDS LOVELAND AT THIS TIME BUT THIS WILL
IMPROVE SHORTLY AS WELL. AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER
EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 SO WILL MAINTAIN THIS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. HAZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. SOME GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE TIMBERLINE AROUND 50 MPH THIS MORNING...SO WILL ADJUST TO
SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT
THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO LAST
EVENING WHICH TAPPED INTO A MOIST AIRMASS OVER NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN KANSAS. AS THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW MOVED UP THE SOUTH
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY LAST EVENING...FOG DEVELOPED AND BECAME VERY
DENSE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. FOG WITH VISIBILITIES
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES EXTENDS FROM THE FORT COLLINS VICINITY DOWN TO
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF DENVER. WILL ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN INCREASING AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE
WITH ALL FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DISSIPATING BY LATE
MORNING. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 9 AM MST.

NOT MUCH OTHER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE MODERATE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE STATE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
INCREASING IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT...BUT ANY APPRECIABLE
SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT A FOGGY START TO THE MORNING MAY HOLD BACK THE
WARMING FOR A FEW HOURS. BY MIDDAY...THE MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE BRINGING WARMING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA SUN THRU MON.  CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS BY SUN
AFTN AND CONTINUE THRU MON. LAPSE RATES WILL BE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE SUN AFTN THRU MON WITH A FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT.
THUS SNOW WILL BE LIKELY IN THE MTNS WITH ADVISORY AMOUNTS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. COULD EVEN APPROACH WARNING
AMOUNTS IN ZN 31 IF EVERYTHING WERE TO COME TOGETHER RIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER PASSES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS A PACIFIC FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
MIDDAY WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS ESPECIALLY NR THE WY-NE BORDER. AS FOR
PCPN CHANCES AS A WK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS LATE SUN AFTN INTO SUN
EVENING STILL COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. AS
FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL COOL SOME ON SUN BEHIND FNT WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER NERN CO.  ON MON A SFC LEE TROUGH
WILL DVLP EAST OF THE MTNS WITH A DECENT LOW LVL GRADIENT
DEVELOPING.  THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE
FOOTHILLS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON IF A MTN WAVE DVLPS HOWEVER
CURRENT CROSS-SECTIONS ARE ONLY SHOWING A WK WAVE AT THIS POINT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND NR THE WY-NE BORDER. WITH DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW OVER NERN CO
SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPS AS READINGS RISE BACK INTO THE 50S WITH
NEAR 60 POSSIBLE AROUND DENVER.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE MTNS WITH LAPSE RATES BECOMING MORE
STABLE.  THUS SNOW CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH ON TUE.  EAST OF THE MTNS
IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW.  ONCE AGAIN GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS ESPECIALLY NR
THE WY-NE BORDER.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS OVER NERN CO WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

ON WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY WITH NO PCPN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH WLY DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW IN PLACE SHOULD
SEE WARMER TEMPS WITH READINGS IN THE 60S OVER THE PLAINS.  BY THU A
QUICK MOVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY AFTN
INTO THU EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A CHC OF SNOW TO THE
MTNS HOWEVER OVER NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS OVER NERN CO
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 60S IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC FNT
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THU EVENING. BY FRI A FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH A
CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 939 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

BETTER MIXING THE REST OF THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE FOG TO
CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT OF THE DENVER AREA...STILL SOME FOG HOWEVER
NEAR KDEN 4-5SM RESTRICTIONS BUT THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
18Z. ALSO SOME FOG STILL TRAPPED NEAR LONGMONT/LOVELAND AND THIS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL BY THIS
AFTN. NO RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED AFTER 18Z. WEAK CYCLONE STILL
AROUND WITH LGT N/NE WINDS THROUGH 18Z AT KDEN...THEN THE HRRR
INDICATES MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT IN THE 18-21Z
WINDOW... THEN NW/NLY THROUGH 00Z THIS AFTN...NNELY THIS EVENING
AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE DENVER AREA. &&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...COOPER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 131101
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
401 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO LAST
EVENING WHICH TAPPED INTO A MOIST AIRMASS OVER NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN KANSAS. AS THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW MOVED UP THE SOUTH
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY LAST EVENING...FOG DEVELOPED AND BECAME VERY
DENSE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. FOG WITH VISIBILITIES
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES EXTENDS FROM THE FORT COLLINS VICINITY DOWN TO
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF DENVER. WILL ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN INCREASING AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE
WITH ALL FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DISSIPATING BY LATE
MORNING. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 9 AM MST.

NOT MUCH OTHER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE MODERATE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE STATE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
INCREASING IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT...BUT ANY APPRECIABLE
SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT A FOGGY START TO THE MORNING MAY HOLD BACK THE
WARMING FOR A FEW HOURS. BY MIDDAY...THE MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE BRINGING WARMING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA SUN THRU MON.  CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS BY SUN
AFTN AND CONTINUE THRU MON. LAPSE RATES WILL BE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE SUN AFTN THRU MON WITH A FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT.
THUS SNOW WILL BE LIKELY IN THE MTNS WITH ADVISORY AMOUNTS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. COULD EVEN APPROACH WARNING
AMOUNTS IN ZN 31 IF EVERYTHING WERE TO COME TOGETHER RIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER PASSES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS A PACIFIC FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
MIDDAY WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS ESPECIALLY NR THE WY-NE BORDER. AS FOR
PCPN CHANCES AS A WK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS LATE SUN AFTN INTO SUN
EVENING STILL COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. AS
FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL COOL SOME ON SUN BEHIND FNT WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER NERN CO.  ON MON A SFC LEE TROUGH
WILL DVLP EAST OF THE MTNS WITH A DECENT LOW LVL GRADIENT
DEVELOPING.  THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE
FOOTHILLS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON IF A MTN WAVE DVLPS HOWEVER
CURRENT CROSS-SECTIONS ARE ONLY SHOWING A WK WAVE AT THIS POINT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY DAY EXPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
NR THE WY-NE BORDER.  WITH DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW OVER NERN CO
SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPS AS READINGS RISE BACK INTO THE 50S WITH NEAR
60 POSSIBLE AROUND DENVER.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE MTNS WITH LAPSE RATES BECOMING MORE
STABLE.  THUS SNOW CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH ON TUE.  EAST OF THE MTNS
IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW.  ONCE AGAIN GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS ESPECIALLY NR
THE WY-NE BORDER.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS OVER NERN CO WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

ON WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY WITH NO PCPN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH WLY DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW IN PLACE SHOULD
SEE WARMER TEMPS WITH READINGS IN THE 60S OVER THE PLAINS.  BY THU A
QUICK MOVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY AFTN
INTO THU EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A CHC OF SNOW TO THE
MTNS HOWEVER OVER NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS OVER NERN CO
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 60S IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC FNT
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THU EVENING. BY FRI A FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH A
CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

DENSE FOG HAS MOVED OVER THE AIRPORT AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER MILE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 7 AM MST. AFTER THE SUN COMES
UP...INCREASED MIXING SHOULD HELP TRANSPORT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
UPWARDS. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 9 OR
10 AM MST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND NORTH TO WESTERLY EARLLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ038>040-
043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS





000
FXUS65 KBOU 131101
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
401 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO LAST
EVENING WHICH TAPPED INTO A MOIST AIRMASS OVER NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN KANSAS. AS THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW MOVED UP THE SOUTH
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY LAST EVENING...FOG DEVELOPED AND BECAME VERY
DENSE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. FOG WITH VISIBILITIES
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES EXTENDS FROM THE FORT COLLINS VICINITY DOWN TO
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF DENVER. WILL ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN INCREASING AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE
WITH ALL FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DISSIPATING BY LATE
MORNING. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 9 AM MST.

NOT MUCH OTHER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE MODERATE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE STATE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
INCREASING IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT...BUT ANY APPRECIABLE
SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT A FOGGY START TO THE MORNING MAY HOLD BACK THE
WARMING FOR A FEW HOURS. BY MIDDAY...THE MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE BRINGING WARMING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA SUN THRU MON.  CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS BY SUN
AFTN AND CONTINUE THRU MON. LAPSE RATES WILL BE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE SUN AFTN THRU MON WITH A FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT.
THUS SNOW WILL BE LIKELY IN THE MTNS WITH ADVISORY AMOUNTS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. COULD EVEN APPROACH WARNING
AMOUNTS IN ZN 31 IF EVERYTHING WERE TO COME TOGETHER RIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER PASSES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS A PACIFIC FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
MIDDAY WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS ESPECIALLY NR THE WY-NE BORDER. AS FOR
PCPN CHANCES AS A WK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS LATE SUN AFTN INTO SUN
EVENING STILL COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. AS
FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL COOL SOME ON SUN BEHIND FNT WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER NERN CO.  ON MON A SFC LEE TROUGH
WILL DVLP EAST OF THE MTNS WITH A DECENT LOW LVL GRADIENT
DEVELOPING.  THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE
FOOTHILLS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON IF A MTN WAVE DVLPS HOWEVER
CURRENT CROSS-SECTIONS ARE ONLY SHOWING A WK WAVE AT THIS POINT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY DAY EXPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
NR THE WY-NE BORDER.  WITH DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW OVER NERN CO
SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPS AS READINGS RISE BACK INTO THE 50S WITH NEAR
60 POSSIBLE AROUND DENVER.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE MTNS WITH LAPSE RATES BECOMING MORE
STABLE.  THUS SNOW CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH ON TUE.  EAST OF THE MTNS
IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW.  ONCE AGAIN GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS ESPECIALLY NR
THE WY-NE BORDER.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS OVER NERN CO WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

ON WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY WITH NO PCPN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH WLY DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW IN PLACE SHOULD
SEE WARMER TEMPS WITH READINGS IN THE 60S OVER THE PLAINS.  BY THU A
QUICK MOVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY AFTN
INTO THU EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A CHC OF SNOW TO THE
MTNS HOWEVER OVER NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS OVER NERN CO
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 60S IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC FNT
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THU EVENING. BY FRI A FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH A
CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

DENSE FOG HAS MOVED OVER THE AIRPORT AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER MILE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 7 AM MST. AFTER THE SUN COMES
UP...INCREASED MIXING SHOULD HELP TRANSPORT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
UPWARDS. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 9 OR
10 AM MST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND NORTH TO WESTERLY EARLLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ038>040-
043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS





000
FXUS65 KBOU 131101
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
401 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO LAST
EVENING WHICH TAPPED INTO A MOIST AIRMASS OVER NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN KANSAS. AS THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW MOVED UP THE SOUTH
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY LAST EVENING...FOG DEVELOPED AND BECAME VERY
DENSE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. FOG WITH VISIBILITIES
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES EXTENDS FROM THE FORT COLLINS VICINITY DOWN TO
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF DENVER. WILL ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN INCREASING AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE
WITH ALL FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DISSIPATING BY LATE
MORNING. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 9 AM MST.

NOT MUCH OTHER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE MODERATE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE STATE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
INCREASING IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT...BUT ANY APPRECIABLE
SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT A FOGGY START TO THE MORNING MAY HOLD BACK THE
WARMING FOR A FEW HOURS. BY MIDDAY...THE MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE BRINGING WARMING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA SUN THRU MON.  CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS BY SUN
AFTN AND CONTINUE THRU MON. LAPSE RATES WILL BE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE SUN AFTN THRU MON WITH A FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT.
THUS SNOW WILL BE LIKELY IN THE MTNS WITH ADVISORY AMOUNTS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. COULD EVEN APPROACH WARNING
AMOUNTS IN ZN 31 IF EVERYTHING WERE TO COME TOGETHER RIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER PASSES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS A PACIFIC FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
MIDDAY WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS ESPECIALLY NR THE WY-NE BORDER. AS FOR
PCPN CHANCES AS A WK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS LATE SUN AFTN INTO SUN
EVENING STILL COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. AS
FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL COOL SOME ON SUN BEHIND FNT WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER NERN CO.  ON MON A SFC LEE TROUGH
WILL DVLP EAST OF THE MTNS WITH A DECENT LOW LVL GRADIENT
DEVELOPING.  THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE
FOOTHILLS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON IF A MTN WAVE DVLPS HOWEVER
CURRENT CROSS-SECTIONS ARE ONLY SHOWING A WK WAVE AT THIS POINT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY DAY EXPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
NR THE WY-NE BORDER.  WITH DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW OVER NERN CO
SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPS AS READINGS RISE BACK INTO THE 50S WITH NEAR
60 POSSIBLE AROUND DENVER.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE MTNS WITH LAPSE RATES BECOMING MORE
STABLE.  THUS SNOW CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH ON TUE.  EAST OF THE MTNS
IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW.  ONCE AGAIN GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS ESPECIALLY NR
THE WY-NE BORDER.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS OVER NERN CO WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

ON WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY WITH NO PCPN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH WLY DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW IN PLACE SHOULD
SEE WARMER TEMPS WITH READINGS IN THE 60S OVER THE PLAINS.  BY THU A
QUICK MOVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY AFTN
INTO THU EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A CHC OF SNOW TO THE
MTNS HOWEVER OVER NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS OVER NERN CO
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 60S IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC FNT
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THU EVENING. BY FRI A FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH A
CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

DENSE FOG HAS MOVED OVER THE AIRPORT AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER MILE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 7 AM MST. AFTER THE SUN COMES
UP...INCREASED MIXING SHOULD HELP TRANSPORT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
UPWARDS. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 9 OR
10 AM MST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND NORTH TO WESTERLY EARLLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ038>040-
043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 130547
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1047 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING STRATUS AND FOG ADVANCING
WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND NOW IS INTO CENTRAL WELD
COUNTY. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS BRING THE STRATUS INTO LARIMER
COUNTY BUT CONTINUE TO KEEP MUCH OF THE DENVER AREA FREE OF
STRATUS AS DRAINAGE FLOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NIGHT.
HAVE ALREADY UPDATE THE FORECAST WITH A BIT MORE CLOUDS/FOG
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER. STILL SOME LOWER PROBABILITIES
THAT STRATUS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE DENVER AREA
UNDER A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

FOG SHOWING UP IN SIDNEY NEBRASKA CURRENTLY...FURTHER WEST THAN
HIRES MODELS HAD IT. MODELS ALSO SHOWING SLIGHTLY MORE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG PUSHING FURTHER WEST OVER THE PLAINS...MAINLY INTO WELD
COUNTY AND POSSIBLY CYCLONING DOWN INTO THE DENVER AREA. FOR NOW
WILL SPREAD FOG WEST INTO MORGAN AND WELD COUNTIES. WILL KEEP
WATCH ON MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO SEE IF IT NEEDS SPREAD
FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN ISSUE IS THE COLD AIR OOZING INTO COLORADO FROM THE EAST
TONIGHT AND THEN WASHING BACK OUT ON SATURDAY. THIS HAS BEEN A BIT
SLOW COMING IN TODAY...BUT IT IS COMING AND SHOULD SPREAD STRATUS
AND FOG AND COLDER AIR INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PLAINS BY
MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE TURNING SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING
WHICH SHOULD ARREST THE WESTWARD MOTION. EXPECTING A WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE TO FORM BY MORNING BUT EXPECTING AREAS NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF DENVER TO BE FOG FREE...SO EXPECT THE THREAT OF STRATUS/FOG
WRAPPING INTO DENVER TO BE LOW.

COOL AIR WASHES BACK OUT ON SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE QUITE A GRADIENT FROM DENVER TO THE EASTERN BORDER.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER. COULD BE SOME MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT NO POPS YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO FM THE
NORTHWEST...AND BRUSHES NORTHERN COLORADO AROUND 06Z SUNDAY.
NAM12 SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED MOUNTAIN WAVE
DEVELOPING. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE 06Z TO 15Z SUNDAY. COULD
SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ABOVE TIMBERLINE. ALTHOUGH
WINDY...THE SHEAR ALOFT MAY BE TOO STRONG ALOFT TO SUPPORT WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS...SO WILL KEEP GUSTS IN THE FOOTHILLS IN THE 50-60
MPH RANGE. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. IN THE MOUNTAINS MOISTURE DEEPENING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE 7-8C KM RANGE IN THE AFTN. MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE DEEPEST SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. GOOD INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. COULD
SEE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THERE. DOWNSLOPE WILL NEGATE THE
SNOWFALL EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO POPS WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY THERE. AS FAR THE THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN CONCERNED...WILL
SEE LITTLE IF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AWAY FM THE
DOWNSLOPE...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MODERATE LAPSE
RATES TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVNG OR A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE SUNDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FM SOME DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER THROUGH THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ON FOG ON THE PLAINS
EAST OF DENVER SATURDAY MORNING...BUT LESS THAN A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IN THE DENVER AREA. LIGHT EAST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT KDEN/KAPA THIS EVENING...THEN LIKELY
TURN NORTHWEST AS A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPS EARLY SATURDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE LAST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

STRATUS AND FOG HAVE JUST MOVED INTO KDEN AS THE SURFACE WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED NORTHERLY WITH THE CYCLONE. WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH ABOUT 11Z WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
STRONGER DRAINAGE WINDS AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE FRONT RANGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 130547
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1047 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING STRATUS AND FOG ADVANCING
WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND NOW IS INTO CENTRAL WELD
COUNTY. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS BRING THE STRATUS INTO LARIMER
COUNTY BUT CONTINUE TO KEEP MUCH OF THE DENVER AREA FREE OF
STRATUS AS DRAINAGE FLOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NIGHT.
HAVE ALREADY UPDATE THE FORECAST WITH A BIT MORE CLOUDS/FOG
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER. STILL SOME LOWER PROBABILITIES
THAT STRATUS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE DENVER AREA
UNDER A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

FOG SHOWING UP IN SIDNEY NEBRASKA CURRENTLY...FURTHER WEST THAN
HIRES MODELS HAD IT. MODELS ALSO SHOWING SLIGHTLY MORE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG PUSHING FURTHER WEST OVER THE PLAINS...MAINLY INTO WELD
COUNTY AND POSSIBLY CYCLONING DOWN INTO THE DENVER AREA. FOR NOW
WILL SPREAD FOG WEST INTO MORGAN AND WELD COUNTIES. WILL KEEP
WATCH ON MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO SEE IF IT NEEDS SPREAD
FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN ISSUE IS THE COLD AIR OOZING INTO COLORADO FROM THE EAST
TONIGHT AND THEN WASHING BACK OUT ON SATURDAY. THIS HAS BEEN A BIT
SLOW COMING IN TODAY...BUT IT IS COMING AND SHOULD SPREAD STRATUS
AND FOG AND COLDER AIR INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PLAINS BY
MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE TURNING SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING
WHICH SHOULD ARREST THE WESTWARD MOTION. EXPECTING A WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE TO FORM BY MORNING BUT EXPECTING AREAS NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF DENVER TO BE FOG FREE...SO EXPECT THE THREAT OF STRATUS/FOG
WRAPPING INTO DENVER TO BE LOW.

COOL AIR WASHES BACK OUT ON SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE QUITE A GRADIENT FROM DENVER TO THE EASTERN BORDER.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER. COULD BE SOME MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT NO POPS YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO FM THE
NORTHWEST...AND BRUSHES NORTHERN COLORADO AROUND 06Z SUNDAY.
NAM12 SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED MOUNTAIN WAVE
DEVELOPING. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE 06Z TO 15Z SUNDAY. COULD
SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ABOVE TIMBERLINE. ALTHOUGH
WINDY...THE SHEAR ALOFT MAY BE TOO STRONG ALOFT TO SUPPORT WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS...SO WILL KEEP GUSTS IN THE FOOTHILLS IN THE 50-60
MPH RANGE. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. IN THE MOUNTAINS MOISTURE DEEPENING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE 7-8C KM RANGE IN THE AFTN. MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE DEEPEST SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. GOOD INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. COULD
SEE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THERE. DOWNSLOPE WILL NEGATE THE
SNOWFALL EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO POPS WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY THERE. AS FAR THE THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN CONCERNED...WILL
SEE LITTLE IF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AWAY FM THE
DOWNSLOPE...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MODERATE LAPSE
RATES TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVNG OR A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE SUNDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FM SOME DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER THROUGH THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ON FOG ON THE PLAINS
EAST OF DENVER SATURDAY MORNING...BUT LESS THAN A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IN THE DENVER AREA. LIGHT EAST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT KDEN/KAPA THIS EVENING...THEN LIKELY
TURN NORTHWEST AS A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPS EARLY SATURDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE LAST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

STRATUS AND FOG HAVE JUST MOVED INTO KDEN AS THE SURFACE WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED NORTHERLY WITH THE CYCLONE. WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH ABOUT 11Z WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
STRONGER DRAINAGE WINDS AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE FRONT RANGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 130547
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1047 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING STRATUS AND FOG ADVANCING
WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND NOW IS INTO CENTRAL WELD
COUNTY. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS BRING THE STRATUS INTO LARIMER
COUNTY BUT CONTINUE TO KEEP MUCH OF THE DENVER AREA FREE OF
STRATUS AS DRAINAGE FLOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NIGHT.
HAVE ALREADY UPDATE THE FORECAST WITH A BIT MORE CLOUDS/FOG
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER. STILL SOME LOWER PROBABILITIES
THAT STRATUS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE DENVER AREA
UNDER A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

FOG SHOWING UP IN SIDNEY NEBRASKA CURRENTLY...FURTHER WEST THAN
HIRES MODELS HAD IT. MODELS ALSO SHOWING SLIGHTLY MORE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG PUSHING FURTHER WEST OVER THE PLAINS...MAINLY INTO WELD
COUNTY AND POSSIBLY CYCLONING DOWN INTO THE DENVER AREA. FOR NOW
WILL SPREAD FOG WEST INTO MORGAN AND WELD COUNTIES. WILL KEEP
WATCH ON MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO SEE IF IT NEEDS SPREAD
FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN ISSUE IS THE COLD AIR OOZING INTO COLORADO FROM THE EAST
TONIGHT AND THEN WASHING BACK OUT ON SATURDAY. THIS HAS BEEN A BIT
SLOW COMING IN TODAY...BUT IT IS COMING AND SHOULD SPREAD STRATUS
AND FOG AND COLDER AIR INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PLAINS BY
MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE TURNING SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING
WHICH SHOULD ARREST THE WESTWARD MOTION. EXPECTING A WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE TO FORM BY MORNING BUT EXPECTING AREAS NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF DENVER TO BE FOG FREE...SO EXPECT THE THREAT OF STRATUS/FOG
WRAPPING INTO DENVER TO BE LOW.

COOL AIR WASHES BACK OUT ON SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE QUITE A GRADIENT FROM DENVER TO THE EASTERN BORDER.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER. COULD BE SOME MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT NO POPS YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO FM THE
NORTHWEST...AND BRUSHES NORTHERN COLORADO AROUND 06Z SUNDAY.
NAM12 SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED MOUNTAIN WAVE
DEVELOPING. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE 06Z TO 15Z SUNDAY. COULD
SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ABOVE TIMBERLINE. ALTHOUGH
WINDY...THE SHEAR ALOFT MAY BE TOO STRONG ALOFT TO SUPPORT WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS...SO WILL KEEP GUSTS IN THE FOOTHILLS IN THE 50-60
MPH RANGE. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. IN THE MOUNTAINS MOISTURE DEEPENING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE 7-8C KM RANGE IN THE AFTN. MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE DEEPEST SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. GOOD INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. COULD
SEE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THERE. DOWNSLOPE WILL NEGATE THE
SNOWFALL EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO POPS WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY THERE. AS FAR THE THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN CONCERNED...WILL
SEE LITTLE IF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AWAY FM THE
DOWNSLOPE...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MODERATE LAPSE
RATES TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVNG OR A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE SUNDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FM SOME DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER THROUGH THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ON FOG ON THE PLAINS
EAST OF DENVER SATURDAY MORNING...BUT LESS THAN A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IN THE DENVER AREA. LIGHT EAST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT KDEN/KAPA THIS EVENING...THEN LIKELY
TURN NORTHWEST AS A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPS EARLY SATURDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE LAST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

STRATUS AND FOG HAVE JUST MOVED INTO KDEN AS THE SURFACE WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED NORTHERLY WITH THE CYCLONE. WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH ABOUT 11Z WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
STRONGER DRAINAGE WINDS AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE FRONT RANGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 130352
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
852 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING STRATUS AND FOG ADVANCING
WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND NOW IS INTO CENTRAL WELD
COUNTY. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS BRING THE STRATUS INTO LARIMER
COUNTY BUT CONTINUE TO KEEP MUCH OF THE DENVER AREA FREE OF
STRATUS AS DRAINAGE FLOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NIGHT.
HAVE ALREADY UPDATE THE FORECAST WITH A BIT MORE CLOUDS/FOG
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER. STILL SOME LOWER PROBABILITIES
THAT STRATUS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE DENVER AREA
UNDER A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

FOG SHOWING UP IN SIDNEY NEBRASKA CURRENTLY...FURTHER WEST THAN
HIRES MODELS HAD IT. MODELS ALSO SHOWING SLIGHTLY MORE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG PUSHING FURTHER WEST OVER THE PLAINS...MAINLY INTO WELD
COUNTY AND POSSIBLY CYCLONING DOWN INTO THE DENVER AREA. FOR NOW
WILL SPREAD FOG WEST INTO MORGAN AND WELD COUNTIES. WILL KEEP
WATCH ON MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO SEE IF IT NEEDS SPREAD
FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN ISSUE IS THE COLD AIR OOZING INTO COLORADO FROM THE EAST
TONIGHT AND THEN WASHING BACK OUT ON SATURDAY. THIS HAS BEEN A BIT
SLOW COMING IN TODAY...BUT IT IS COMING AND SHOULD SPREAD STRATUS
AND FOG AND COLDER AIR INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PLAINS BY
MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE TURNING SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING
WHICH SHOULD ARREST THE WESTWARD MOTION. EXPECTING A WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE TO FORM BY MORNING BUT EXPECTING AREAS NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF DENVER TO BE FOG FREE...SO EXPECT THE THREAT OF STRATUS/FOG
WRAPPING INTO DENVER TO BE LOW.

COOL AIR WASHES BACK OUT ON SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE QUITE A GRADIENT FROM DENVER TO THE EASTERN BORDER.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER. COULD BE SOME MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT NO POPS YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO FM THE
NORTHWEST...AND BRUSHES NORTHERN COLORADO AROUND 06Z SUNDAY.
NAM12 SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED MOUNTAIN WAVE
DEVELOPING. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE 06Z TO 15Z SUNDAY. COULD
SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ABOVE TIMBERLINE. ALTHOUGH
WINDY...THE SHEAR ALOFT MAY BE TOO STRONG ALOFT TO SUPPORT WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS...SO WILL KEEP GUSTS IN THE FOOTHILLS IN THE 50-60
MPH RANGE. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. IN THE MOUNTAINS MOISTURE DEEPENING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE 7-8C KM RANGE IN THE AFTN. MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE DEEPEST SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. GOOD INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. COULD
SEE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THERE. DOWNSLOPE WILL NEGATE THE
SNOWFALL EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO POPS WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY THERE. AS FAR THE THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN CONCERNED...WILL
SEE LITTLE IF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AWAY FM THE
DOWNSLOPE...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MODERATE LAPSE
RATES TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVNG OR A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE SUNDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FM SOME DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER THROUGH THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ON FOG ON THE PLAINS
EAST OF DENVER SATURDAY MORNING...BUT LESS THAN A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IN THE DENVER AREA. LIGHT EAST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT KDEN/KAPA THIS EVENING...THEN LIKELY
TURN NORTHWEST AS A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPS EARLY SATURDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE LAST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 834 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG INTO KDEN TONIGHT.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS STRATUS INTO SOUTHEAST WELD COUNTY
NEARING HUDSON. DRAINAGE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING NOW SO THIS WILL
KEEP MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDS NORTH OF KDEN. THERE IS STILL A LOWER
PROBABILITY THAT DRAINAGE FLOW MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT THE STRATUS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. LESSER CHANCES FOR LOW
CLOUDS AT BJC/APA TNT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 130038
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
538 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

FOG SHOWING UP IN SIDNEY NEBRASKA CURRENTLY...FURTHER WEST THAN
HIRES MODELS HAD IT. MODELS ALSO SHOWING SLIGHTLY MORE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG PUSHING FURTHER WEST OVER THE PLAINS...MAINLY INTO WELD
COUNTY AND POSSIBLY CYCLONING DOWN INTO THE DENVER AREA. FOR NOW
WILL SPREAD FOG WEST INTO MORGAN AND WELD COUNTIES. WILL KEEP
WATCH ON MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO SEE IF IT NEEDS SPREAD
FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN ISSUE IS THE COLD AIR OOZING INTO COLORADO FROM THE EAST
TONIGHT AND THEN WASHING BACK OUT ON SATURDAY. THIS HAS BEEN A BIT
SLOW COMING IN TODAY...BUT IT IS COMING AND SHOULD SPREAD STRATUS
AND FOG AND COLDER AIR INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PLAINS BY
MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE TURNING SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING
WHICH SHOULD ARREST THE WESTWARD MOTION. EXPECTING A WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE TO FORM BY MORNING BUT EXPECTING AREAS NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF DENVER TO BE FOG FREE...SO EXPECT THE THREAT OF STRATUS/FOG
WRAPPING INTO DENVER TO BE LOW.

COOL AIR WASHES BACK OUT ON SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE QUITE A GRADIENT FROM DENVER TO THE EASTERN BORDER.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER. COULD BE SOME MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT NO POPS YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO FM THE
NORTHWEST...AND BRUSHES NORTHERN COLORADO AROUND 06Z SUNDAY.
NAM12 SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED MOUNTAIN WAVE
DEVELOPING. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE 06Z TO 15Z SUNDAY. COULD
SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ABOVE TIMBERLINE. ALTHOUGH
WINDY...THE SHEAR ALOFT MAY BE TOO STRONG ALOFT TO SUPPORT WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS...SO WILL KEEP GUSTS IN THE FOOTHILLS IN THE 50-60
MPH RANGE. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. IN THE MOUNTAINS MOISTURE DEEPENING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE 7-8C KM RANGE IN THE AFTN. MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE DEEPEST SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. GOOD INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. COULD
SEE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THERE. DOWNSLOPE WILL NEGATE THE
SNOWFALL EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO POPS WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY THERE. AS FAR THE THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN CONCERNED...WILL
SEE LITTLE IF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AWAY FM THE
DOWNSLOPE...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MODERATE LAPSE
RATES TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVNG OR A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE SUNDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FM SOME DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER THROUGH THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ON FOG ON THE PLAINS
EAST OF DENVER SATURDAY MORNING...BUT LESS THAN A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IN THE DENVER AREA. LIGHT EAST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT KDEN/KAPA THIS EVENING...THEN LIKELY
TURN NORTHWEST AS A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPS EARLY SATURDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE LAST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

HIRES MODELS SHOWING AREAS OF FOG PUSHING FURTHER WEST OVER THE
PLAINS...AT LEAST INTO WELD COUNTY OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
CYCLONING SOUTH INTO THE DENVER AREA. BELIEVE FOR NOW THAT THE
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL KEEP IT AWAY FROM KDEN.  AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS ON FOG ON THE PLAINS EAST OF DENVER SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT LESS THAN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS
IN THE DENVER AREA. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT
KDEN/KAPA THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THEY TURN
NORTHWEST AS A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPS EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO POSSIBLE FOG...BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT THAT. WINDS
WILL TURN WESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME STRONGER POSSIBLY
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 130038
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
538 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

FOG SHOWING UP IN SIDNEY NEBRASKA CURRENTLY...FURTHER WEST THAN
HIRES MODELS HAD IT. MODELS ALSO SHOWING SLIGHTLY MORE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG PUSHING FURTHER WEST OVER THE PLAINS...MAINLY INTO WELD
COUNTY AND POSSIBLY CYCLONING DOWN INTO THE DENVER AREA. FOR NOW
WILL SPREAD FOG WEST INTO MORGAN AND WELD COUNTIES. WILL KEEP
WATCH ON MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO SEE IF IT NEEDS SPREAD
FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN ISSUE IS THE COLD AIR OOZING INTO COLORADO FROM THE EAST
TONIGHT AND THEN WASHING BACK OUT ON SATURDAY. THIS HAS BEEN A BIT
SLOW COMING IN TODAY...BUT IT IS COMING AND SHOULD SPREAD STRATUS
AND FOG AND COLDER AIR INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PLAINS BY
MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE TURNING SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING
WHICH SHOULD ARREST THE WESTWARD MOTION. EXPECTING A WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE TO FORM BY MORNING BUT EXPECTING AREAS NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF DENVER TO BE FOG FREE...SO EXPECT THE THREAT OF STRATUS/FOG
WRAPPING INTO DENVER TO BE LOW.

COOL AIR WASHES BACK OUT ON SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE QUITE A GRADIENT FROM DENVER TO THE EASTERN BORDER.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER. COULD BE SOME MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT NO POPS YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO FM THE
NORTHWEST...AND BRUSHES NORTHERN COLORADO AROUND 06Z SUNDAY.
NAM12 SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED MOUNTAIN WAVE
DEVELOPING. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE 06Z TO 15Z SUNDAY. COULD
SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ABOVE TIMBERLINE. ALTHOUGH
WINDY...THE SHEAR ALOFT MAY BE TOO STRONG ALOFT TO SUPPORT WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS...SO WILL KEEP GUSTS IN THE FOOTHILLS IN THE 50-60
MPH RANGE. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. IN THE MOUNTAINS MOISTURE DEEPENING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE 7-8C KM RANGE IN THE AFTN. MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE DEEPEST SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. GOOD INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. COULD
SEE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THERE. DOWNSLOPE WILL NEGATE THE
SNOWFALL EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO POPS WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY THERE. AS FAR THE THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN CONCERNED...WILL
SEE LITTLE IF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AWAY FM THE
DOWNSLOPE...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MODERATE LAPSE
RATES TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVNG OR A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE SUNDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FM SOME DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER THROUGH THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ON FOG ON THE PLAINS
EAST OF DENVER SATURDAY MORNING...BUT LESS THAN A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IN THE DENVER AREA. LIGHT EAST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT KDEN/KAPA THIS EVENING...THEN LIKELY
TURN NORTHWEST AS A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPS EARLY SATURDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE LAST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

HIRES MODELS SHOWING AREAS OF FOG PUSHING FURTHER WEST OVER THE
PLAINS...AT LEAST INTO WELD COUNTY OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
CYCLONING SOUTH INTO THE DENVER AREA. BELIEVE FOR NOW THAT THE
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL KEEP IT AWAY FROM KDEN.  AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS ON FOG ON THE PLAINS EAST OF DENVER SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT LESS THAN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS
IN THE DENVER AREA. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT
KDEN/KAPA THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THEY TURN
NORTHWEST AS A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPS EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO POSSIBLE FOG...BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT THAT. WINDS
WILL TURN WESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME STRONGER POSSIBLY
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 130038
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
538 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

FOG SHOWING UP IN SIDNEY NEBRASKA CURRENTLY...FURTHER WEST THAN
HIRES MODELS HAD IT. MODELS ALSO SHOWING SLIGHTLY MORE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG PUSHING FURTHER WEST OVER THE PLAINS...MAINLY INTO WELD
COUNTY AND POSSIBLY CYCLONING DOWN INTO THE DENVER AREA. FOR NOW
WILL SPREAD FOG WEST INTO MORGAN AND WELD COUNTIES. WILL KEEP
WATCH ON MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO SEE IF IT NEEDS SPREAD
FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN ISSUE IS THE COLD AIR OOZING INTO COLORADO FROM THE EAST
TONIGHT AND THEN WASHING BACK OUT ON SATURDAY. THIS HAS BEEN A BIT
SLOW COMING IN TODAY...BUT IT IS COMING AND SHOULD SPREAD STRATUS
AND FOG AND COLDER AIR INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PLAINS BY
MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE TURNING SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING
WHICH SHOULD ARREST THE WESTWARD MOTION. EXPECTING A WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE TO FORM BY MORNING BUT EXPECTING AREAS NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF DENVER TO BE FOG FREE...SO EXPECT THE THREAT OF STRATUS/FOG
WRAPPING INTO DENVER TO BE LOW.

COOL AIR WASHES BACK OUT ON SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE QUITE A GRADIENT FROM DENVER TO THE EASTERN BORDER.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER. COULD BE SOME MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT NO POPS YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO FM THE
NORTHWEST...AND BRUSHES NORTHERN COLORADO AROUND 06Z SUNDAY.
NAM12 SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED MOUNTAIN WAVE
DEVELOPING. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE 06Z TO 15Z SUNDAY. COULD
SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ABOVE TIMBERLINE. ALTHOUGH
WINDY...THE SHEAR ALOFT MAY BE TOO STRONG ALOFT TO SUPPORT WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS...SO WILL KEEP GUSTS IN THE FOOTHILLS IN THE 50-60
MPH RANGE. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. IN THE MOUNTAINS MOISTURE DEEPENING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE 7-8C KM RANGE IN THE AFTN. MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE DEEPEST SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. GOOD INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. COULD
SEE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THERE. DOWNSLOPE WILL NEGATE THE
SNOWFALL EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO POPS WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY THERE. AS FAR THE THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN CONCERNED...WILL
SEE LITTLE IF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AWAY FM THE
DOWNSLOPE...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MODERATE LAPSE
RATES TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVNG OR A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE SUNDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FM SOME DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER THROUGH THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ON FOG ON THE PLAINS
EAST OF DENVER SATURDAY MORNING...BUT LESS THAN A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IN THE DENVER AREA. LIGHT EAST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT KDEN/KAPA THIS EVENING...THEN LIKELY
TURN NORTHWEST AS A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPS EARLY SATURDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE LAST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

HIRES MODELS SHOWING AREAS OF FOG PUSHING FURTHER WEST OVER THE
PLAINS...AT LEAST INTO WELD COUNTY OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
CYCLONING SOUTH INTO THE DENVER AREA. BELIEVE FOR NOW THAT THE
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL KEEP IT AWAY FROM KDEN.  AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS ON FOG ON THE PLAINS EAST OF DENVER SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT LESS THAN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS
IN THE DENVER AREA. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT
KDEN/KAPA THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THEY TURN
NORTHWEST AS A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPS EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO POSSIBLE FOG...BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT THAT. WINDS
WILL TURN WESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME STRONGER POSSIBLY
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 122109
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
209 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN ISSUE IS THE COLD AIR OOZING INTO COLORADO FROM THE EAST
TONIGHT AND THEN WASHING BACK OUT ON SATURDAY. THIS HAS BEEN A BIT
SLOW COMING IN TODAY...BUT IT IS COMING AND SHOULD SPREAD STRATUS
AND FOG AND COLDER AIR INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PLAINS BY
MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE TURNING SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING
WHICH SHOULD ARREST THE WESTWARD MOTION. EXPECTING A WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE TO FORM BY MORNING BUT EXPECTING AREAS NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF DENVER TO BE FOG FREE...SO EXPECT THE THREAT OF STRATUS/FOG
WRAPPING INTO DENVER TO BE LOW.

COOL AIR WASHES BACK OUT ON SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE QUITE A GRADIENT FROM DENVER TO THE EASTERN BORDER.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER. COULD BE SOME MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT NO POPS YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO FM THE
NORTHWEST...AND BRUSHES NORTHERN COLORADO AROUND 06Z SUNDAY.
NAM12 SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED MOUNTAIN WAVE
DEVELOPING. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE 06Z TO 15Z SUNDAY. COULD
SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ABOVE TIMBERLINE. ALTHOUGH
WINDY...THE SHEAR ALOFT MAY BE TOO STRONG ALOFT TO SUPPORT WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS...SO WILL KEEP GUSTS IN THE FOOTHILLS IN THE 50-60
MPH RANGE. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. IN THE MOUNTAINS MOISTURE DEEPENING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE 7-8C KM RANGE IN THE AFTN. MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE DEEPEST SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. GOOD INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. COULD
SEE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THERE. DOWNSLOPE WILL NEGATE THE
SNOWFALL EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO POPS WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY THERE. AS FAR THE THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN CONCERNED...WILL
SEE LITTLE IF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AWAY FM THE
DOWNSLOPE...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MODERATE LAPSE
RATES TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVNG OR A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE SUNDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FM SOME DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER THROUGH THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ON FOG ON THE PLAINS
EAST OF DENVER SATURDAY MORNING...BUT LESS THAN A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IN THE DENVER AREA. LIGHT EAST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT KDEN/KAPA THIS EVENING...THEN LIKELY
TURN NORTHWEST AS A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPS EARLY SATURDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE LAST PART.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD





000
FXUS65 KBOU 121853
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1153 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

RAISED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PUSH OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE EAST IS LOOKING WEAKER THAN EXPECTED. STILL
HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR COMING INTO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE AND CARRIED ALONG IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME COOLER AIR FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS FILTERED INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO OVERNIGHT
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
EVEN SO...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS. FOOTHILL LOCATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY WINDS...DRIVEN BY THE MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. ALL IN ALL...A PLEASANT EARLY
SPRING-LIKE DAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING THE SUN AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SAT AS A SFC LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE MTNS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH
WARMER TEMPS.  HIGHS OVER NERN CO WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
AROUND DENVER TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT SPEEDS WILL
STAY BLO HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN A MTN WAVE WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED
WITH 45-50 KT COMPONENT ALONG WINDS.  THUS WINDS MAY GET NR HIGH
WIND CRITERIA OVER THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.  BY SUN AFTN INTO SUN
EVENING A QUCK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN WNW
FLOW ALOFT. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MTNS
WITH LAPSE RATES IMPROVING SO WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW.
OVER NERN CO A PACIFIC TYPE FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS BY AFTN WITH
NWLY WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
SUN EVENING ALONG WITH SOME MID LVL ASCENT THIS COULD LEAD TO A
CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. SOUNDINGS SHOW WET BULB ZEROS WILL
REMAIN ABV 6000 FT SO MOST OF THE PCPN MAY END UP AS RAIN ACROSS
THE PLAINS. AS FOR HIGHS SUN AFTN READINGS WILL RANGE FM THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S OVER NERN CO.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NWLY WITH CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MTNS SO WILL KEEP
IN A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL IN THE
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ANOTHER SFC LEE TROUGH WILL
DVLP WITH WNW LOW LVL FLOW.  THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH A SHALLOW
LYR OF MOISTURE IN THE MTNS SO WILL MENTION A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW.
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IT WILL CONTINUE DRY AS THE LOW LVL FLOW
REMAINS WNW. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN
AND NR THE FOOTHILLS MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AS A MTN WAVE DVLPS
WITH COMPONENT ALONG WINDS INCREASING. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.  WITH DOWNSLOPE WLY LOW LVL FLOW TEMPS WILL
LIKELY RISE INTO THE 60S OVER NERN CO.  BY THU THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WSW WITH THE GFS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE MTNS WHILE THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER.  AT THIS TIME WILL
ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN IN THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. AS FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN READINGS WILL BE WELL ABV
NORMAL ACROSS NERN CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KDEN/KAPA THIS EVENING...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT WIND DIRECTION LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
DENVER CYCLONE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THAT COULD TURN WINDS TO W OR
NW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD





000
FXUS65 KBOU 121100
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
400 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE AND CARRIED ALONG IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME COOLER AIR FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS FILTERED INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO OVERNIGHT
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
EVEN SO...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS. FOOTHILL LOCATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY WINDS...DRIVEN BY THE MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. ALL IN ALL...A PLEASANT EARLY
SPRING-LIKE DAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING THE SUN AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SAT AS A SFC LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE MTNS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH
WARMER TEMPS.  HIGHS OVER NERN CO WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
AROUND DENVER TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT SPEEDS WILL
STAY BLO HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN A MTN WAVE WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED
WITH 45-50 KT COMPONENT ALONG WINDS.  THUS WINDS MAY GET NR HIGH
WIND CRITERIA OVER THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.  BY SUN AFTN INTO SUN
EVENING A QUCK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN WNW
FLOW ALOFT. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MTNS
WITH LAPSE RATES IMPROVING SO WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW.
OVER NERN CO A PACIFIC TYPE FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS BY AFTN WITH
NWLY WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
SUN EVENING ALONG WITH SOME MID LVL ASCENT THIS COULD LEAD TO A
CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. SOUNDINGS SHOW WET BULB ZEROS WILL
REMAIN ABV 6000 FT SO MOST OF THE PCPN MAY END UP AS RAIN ACROSS
THE PLAINS. AS FOR HIGHS SUN AFTN READINGS WILL RANGE FM THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S OVER NERN CO.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NWLY WITH CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MTNS SO WILL KEEP
IN A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL IN THE
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ANOTHER SFC LEE TROUGH WILL
DVLP WITH WNW LOW LVL FLOW.  THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH A SHALLOW
LYR OF MOISTURE IN THE MTNS SO WILL MENTION A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW.
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IT WILL CONTINUE DRY AS THE LOW LVL FLOW
REMAINS WNW. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN
AND NR THE FOOTHILLS MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AS A MTN WAVE DVLPS
WITH COMPONENT ALONG WINDS INCREASING. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.  WITH DOWNSLOPE WLY LOW LVL FLOW TEMPS WILL
LIKELY RISE INTO THE 60S OVER NERN CO.  BY THU THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WSW WITH THE GFS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE MTNS WHILE THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER.  AT THIS TIME WILL
ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN IN THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. AS FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN READINGS WILL BE WELL ABV
NORMAL ACROSS NERN CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED. IF CEILINGS DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE
WELL ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING AND THEN TREND BACK TO SOUTHERLY LATE INT
EH AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 6 TO 12 KNOT
RANGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS





000
FXUS65 KBOU 121100
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
400 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE AND CARRIED ALONG IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME COOLER AIR FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS FILTERED INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO OVERNIGHT
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
EVEN SO...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS. FOOTHILL LOCATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY WINDS...DRIVEN BY THE MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. ALL IN ALL...A PLEASANT EARLY
SPRING-LIKE DAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING THE SUN AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SAT AS A SFC LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE MTNS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH
WARMER TEMPS.  HIGHS OVER NERN CO WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
AROUND DENVER TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT SPEEDS WILL
STAY BLO HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN A MTN WAVE WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED
WITH 45-50 KT COMPONENT ALONG WINDS.  THUS WINDS MAY GET NR HIGH
WIND CRITERIA OVER THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.  BY SUN AFTN INTO SUN
EVENING A QUCK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN WNW
FLOW ALOFT. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MTNS
WITH LAPSE RATES IMPROVING SO WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW.
OVER NERN CO A PACIFIC TYPE FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS BY AFTN WITH
NWLY WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
SUN EVENING ALONG WITH SOME MID LVL ASCENT THIS COULD LEAD TO A
CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. SOUNDINGS SHOW WET BULB ZEROS WILL
REMAIN ABV 6000 FT SO MOST OF THE PCPN MAY END UP AS RAIN ACROSS
THE PLAINS. AS FOR HIGHS SUN AFTN READINGS WILL RANGE FM THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S OVER NERN CO.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NWLY WITH CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MTNS SO WILL KEEP
IN A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL IN THE
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ANOTHER SFC LEE TROUGH WILL
DVLP WITH WNW LOW LVL FLOW.  THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH A SHALLOW
LYR OF MOISTURE IN THE MTNS SO WILL MENTION A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW.
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IT WILL CONTINUE DRY AS THE LOW LVL FLOW
REMAINS WNW. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN
AND NR THE FOOTHILLS MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AS A MTN WAVE DVLPS
WITH COMPONENT ALONG WINDS INCREASING. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.  WITH DOWNSLOPE WLY LOW LVL FLOW TEMPS WILL
LIKELY RISE INTO THE 60S OVER NERN CO.  BY THU THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WSW WITH THE GFS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE MTNS WHILE THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER.  AT THIS TIME WILL
ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN IN THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. AS FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN READINGS WILL BE WELL ABV
NORMAL ACROSS NERN CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED. IF CEILINGS DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE
WELL ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING AND THEN TREND BACK TO SOUTHERLY LATE INT
EH AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 6 TO 12 KNOT
RANGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 121100
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
400 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE AND CARRIED ALONG IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME COOLER AIR FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS FILTERED INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO OVERNIGHT
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
EVEN SO...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS. FOOTHILL LOCATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY WINDS...DRIVEN BY THE MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. ALL IN ALL...A PLEASANT EARLY
SPRING-LIKE DAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING THE SUN AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SAT AS A SFC LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE MTNS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH
WARMER TEMPS.  HIGHS OVER NERN CO WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
AROUND DENVER TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT SPEEDS WILL
STAY BLO HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN A MTN WAVE WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED
WITH 45-50 KT COMPONENT ALONG WINDS.  THUS WINDS MAY GET NR HIGH
WIND CRITERIA OVER THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.  BY SUN AFTN INTO SUN
EVENING A QUCK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN WNW
FLOW ALOFT. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MTNS
WITH LAPSE RATES IMPROVING SO WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW.
OVER NERN CO A PACIFIC TYPE FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS BY AFTN WITH
NWLY WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
SUN EVENING ALONG WITH SOME MID LVL ASCENT THIS COULD LEAD TO A
CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. SOUNDINGS SHOW WET BULB ZEROS WILL
REMAIN ABV 6000 FT SO MOST OF THE PCPN MAY END UP AS RAIN ACROSS
THE PLAINS. AS FOR HIGHS SUN AFTN READINGS WILL RANGE FM THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S OVER NERN CO.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NWLY WITH CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MTNS SO WILL KEEP
IN A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL IN THE
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ANOTHER SFC LEE TROUGH WILL
DVLP WITH WNW LOW LVL FLOW.  THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH A SHALLOW
LYR OF MOISTURE IN THE MTNS SO WILL MENTION A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW.
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IT WILL CONTINUE DRY AS THE LOW LVL FLOW
REMAINS WNW. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN
AND NR THE FOOTHILLS MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AS A MTN WAVE DVLPS
WITH COMPONENT ALONG WINDS INCREASING. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.  WITH DOWNSLOPE WLY LOW LVL FLOW TEMPS WILL
LIKELY RISE INTO THE 60S OVER NERN CO.  BY THU THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WSW WITH THE GFS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE MTNS WHILE THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER.  AT THIS TIME WILL
ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN IN THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. AS FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN READINGS WILL BE WELL ABV
NORMAL ACROSS NERN CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED. IF CEILINGS DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE
WELL ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING AND THEN TREND BACK TO SOUTHERLY LATE INT
EH AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 6 TO 12 KNOT
RANGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS





000
FXUS65 KBOU 120445
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
945 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY TO PRESENT FORECAST. AREA REMAINS
UNDER A SWIFT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WAVES OF MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING CARRIED ALONG IN THIS FLOW. THE WEAK BACKDOOR SURGE
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAT CAUSED SFC WINDS ON THE PLAINS TO SHIFT TO AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLIER THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE WASHING
OUT. WINDS ARE ASSUMING A TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN...EXCEPT ABOVE
TIMBERLINE AND UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE NWLY WINDS
STILL GUSTING IN THE 40-50KT RANGE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN THESE STG/GUSTY WINDS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 511 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

HAVE UPDATED CURRENT TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS INTO THE
FORECAST. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TONIGHTS SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND CONDITIONS UPSTREAM ON SATELLITE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH. NO CHANGES TO PATTERN SO WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TOMORROW.  LOOKING AHEAD A
VERY STRONG 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.  WE WILL BE ON THE
EXTREME WEST SIDE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...AND WILL NOT TAKE A
DIRECT HIT FROM THIS REMINDER OF WINTER...SO SOME COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS A BIT TO COME CLOSER TO GUIDANCE AND BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS.
AS FOR CLOUDS...WE WILL VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
COLORADO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS. NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER
THERE AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. WL DOVETAIL SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN
THE GRIDS FM GOODLAND AREA. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. SATURDAY NIGHT...GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS.
NAM12 SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE PROFILE
AROUND 06Z SUNDAY THEN THE SHEAR ALOFT BREAKS IT DOWN. A WEAK SYSTEM
WILL BRUSH ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN A BIT WEST OF THE DIVIDE...ENOUGH FOR AN INCH
OR TWO ALONG THE HIGHER WEST FACING SLOPES. DOWNSLOPE WILL DRY THE
AMS OUT IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS...BUT FURTHER EAST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND MID LEVEL INSTBY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. TEMPERATURES JUMP BACK
INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...THE MDLS SHIFT
THE RIDGE EASTWARD WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 937 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. A TYPICAL DRAINAGE WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL WITH
SPEEDS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 6-13KT RANGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS65 KBOU 120011
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
511 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

HAVE UPDATED CURRENT TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS INTO THE
FORECAST. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TONIGHTS SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND CONDITIONS UPSTREAM ON SATELLITE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH. NO CHANGES TO PATTERN SO WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TOMORROW.  LOOKING AHEAD A
VERY STRONG 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.  WE WILL BE ON THE
EXTREME WEST SIDE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...AND WILL NOT TAKE A
DIRECT HIT FROM THIS REMINDER OF WINTER...SO SOME COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS A BIT TO COME CLOSER TO GUIDANCE AND BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS.
AS FOR CLOUDS...WE WILL VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
COLORADO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS. NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER
THERE AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. WL DOVETAIL SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN
THE GRIDS FM GOODLAND AREA. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. SATURDAY NIGHT...GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS.
NAM12 SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE PROFILE
AROUND 06Z SUNDAY THEN THE SHEAR ALOFT BREAKS IT DOWN. A WEAK SYSTEM
WILL BRUSH ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN A BIT WEST OF THE DIVIDE...ENOUGH FOR AN INCH
OR TWO ALONG THE HIGHER WEST FACING SLOPES. DOWNSLOPE WILL DRY THE
AMS OUT IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS...BUT FURTHER EAST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND MID LEVEL INSTBY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. TEMPERATURES JUMP BACK
INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...THE MDLS SHIFT
THE RIDGE EASTWARD WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 511 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

DRY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. THERE WILL BE
SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS...WITH SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 080 BETWEEN 10Z-16Z...NOT SUPER
CONFIDENT ON THIS SO ONLY INTRODUCED FEW AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN WAVE CLOUDS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. A WEAK FRONT WITH EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS HAS SLID THROUGH
MOST ALL AIRPORTS...AND WILL PUSH THROUGH APA AND KBJC WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR. EXPECT WINDS AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS TO THEN BECOME
DRAINAGE AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...AND LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS MID
MORNING ON FRIDAY.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN





000
FXUS65 KBOU 120011
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
511 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

HAVE UPDATED CURRENT TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS INTO THE
FORECAST. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TONIGHTS SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND CONDITIONS UPSTREAM ON SATELLITE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH. NO CHANGES TO PATTERN SO WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TOMORROW.  LOOKING AHEAD A
VERY STRONG 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.  WE WILL BE ON THE
EXTREME WEST SIDE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...AND WILL NOT TAKE A
DIRECT HIT FROM THIS REMINDER OF WINTER...SO SOME COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS A BIT TO COME CLOSER TO GUIDANCE AND BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS.
AS FOR CLOUDS...WE WILL VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
COLORADO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS. NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER
THERE AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. WL DOVETAIL SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN
THE GRIDS FM GOODLAND AREA. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. SATURDAY NIGHT...GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS.
NAM12 SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE PROFILE
AROUND 06Z SUNDAY THEN THE SHEAR ALOFT BREAKS IT DOWN. A WEAK SYSTEM
WILL BRUSH ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN A BIT WEST OF THE DIVIDE...ENOUGH FOR AN INCH
OR TWO ALONG THE HIGHER WEST FACING SLOPES. DOWNSLOPE WILL DRY THE
AMS OUT IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS...BUT FURTHER EAST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND MID LEVEL INSTBY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. TEMPERATURES JUMP BACK
INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...THE MDLS SHIFT
THE RIDGE EASTWARD WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 511 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

DRY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. THERE WILL BE
SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS...WITH SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 080 BETWEEN 10Z-16Z...NOT SUPER
CONFIDENT ON THIS SO ONLY INTRODUCED FEW AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN WAVE CLOUDS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. A WEAK FRONT WITH EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS HAS SLID THROUGH
MOST ALL AIRPORTS...AND WILL PUSH THROUGH APA AND KBJC WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR. EXPECT WINDS AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS TO THEN BECOME
DRAINAGE AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...AND LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS MID
MORNING ON FRIDAY.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities