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000
FXUS64 KBRO 312006
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
306 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
WELL SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S...WHICH IS 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ALONG
THE COAST. MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT
EAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO THE LOW
TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION BUT CAPPING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD
HOLD BACK ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST STAYS LOW THROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS BEEN STEADFAST IN PUSHING THROUGH
A RELATIVELY STRONG FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOLLOWED BY RAPID DRYING AND A LITTLE COOLER WEATHER. HOWEVER
ALL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL AND
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IS CLOSER TO THE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER TX/NM AND HOLDS THE
FRONT TO THE WEST MUCH LONGER. THE CMC IS ALSO SLOWER THAN THE GFS.

WITH THE JET PATTERN PRESENT ONE WOULD THINK THERE IS ENOUGH
MOMENTUM BEHIND A 125KT JET MAX ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
KEEP THAT CLOSED LOW MOVING ALONG...ALTHOUGH ITS FORMATION SEEMS
PRETTY REASONABLE. AFTER TALKING WITH CRP AND EXAMINING WPC PRODUCTS
WENT WITH A SOLUTION THAT BRINGS A WEAKER FRONT ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES A LITTLE MORE BROADLY
DISTRIBUTED AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE RESULT WAS LOWER...BUT
NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW. /68-JGG/

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BUOY
42020 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 18 KNOTS WITH SEAS
OF 3.6 FEET. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FEET OFFSHORE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  64  78  65  81 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          62  79  63  82 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            59  79  60  82 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              59  80  61  83 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      55  81  58  85 /  10   0  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   70  77  69  80 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63/68







000
FXUS64 KBRO 311812 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
112 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORT ISABEL AND SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
HAVE LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT
LEFT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO HIGHER INSTABILITY. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. ALL TEXT FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 22 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z SATURDAY. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IN LIGHT OF A MORE ROBUST FORECAST BASED ON THE FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA THIS MORNING...LIKEWISE BEEFED UP THE TAFS TO
INCLUDE A FEW HOURS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR CEILINGS LATE THIS
MORNING. DEPENDING ON THR EXACT TIMING...THAT PORTION OF THE TAFS
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE THE CEILING AND
VISIBILITY TO IFR...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. ONCE THE SOMEWHAT RAGGED
LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...NOW ABREAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI...MOVES
THROUGH...THERE WILL BE QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EWX
CWA THIS MORNING AT ABOUT 30 MPH AND WILL KEEP THINGS INTERESTING
IN THE SHORT TERM. REVAMPED THE FIRST COUPLE OF PERIODS A BIT TO
INCREASE OVERALL POPS. SPEED OF ADVANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOWER VALLEY FROM ROUGHLY 10 AM TO NOON. ONCE
THROUGH HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND COOLER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER VALLEY MAY
ACHIEVE THE MID 80S TODAY...BUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY LOWER 80S WILL BE MORE THE NORM. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE CLUSTER AND A POCKET OF ENERGY AT BOTH
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING SOME OF THE LIFT.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF AN
ADVANCING MID LEVEL RIDGE...WITH PERHAPS THE SLIGHTEST BIT OF
SUBTROPICAL JET LIFT IN THE MIX AS WELL.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR HOWEVER...WITH LOW TEMPS FROM THE LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST AND AT BROWNSVILLE. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND COOLER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 70S...CLOSE TO NORMAL. JUST A FEW SHOWERS MAY MATERIALIZE OFF
SHORE IF WINDS VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEAST QUICK ENOUGH...BUT POPS WILL
REMAIN SILENT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY STILL LOOK BREEZY TO WINDY AS STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTERACT
WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL
US...FORCED BY A STRENGTHENING AND BROADENING UPPER LEVEL JET
MAXIMUM AHEAD OF A DIGGING SOUTHWESTERN US TROUGH. WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE...WITH 35 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
ADVECT IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT PRECIPITATION MAY BE HARD TO
COME BY AS SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IMPINGES ON THE AREA WITH
DRY AIR PERHAPS CAPPING MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE FORM OF STREAMER
SHOWERS AND TUESDAY THESE SHOWERS MOVE INTO AREAS EAST OF HWY 281.

MODELS STILL HAVING ISSUES RESOLVING THE SOUTHERN STREAM VORTICITY
AND RESULTANT CLOSED LOW OVER WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. OF THE AVAILABLE OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE CMC IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN BRINGING IT ACROSS AROUND
12 HOURS LATER. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT BRING
A FRONT THROUGH AND KEEPS IT NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AS CONSISTENT AS I CAN LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AND BLENDING WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORS. MADE
LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD BUT DID RAISE
POPS ALONG OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE BEST PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION EXISTS WITH THE INJECTION OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL STORM VANCE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS SEAS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE A FRONT MOVES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT
WILL CLEAR THE AREA. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
TONIGHT...BRINGING ABOUT EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
MORE THAN ABOUT 5 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF ELEVATED WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
MODERATE FLOW WILL RULE THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH MODERATE
SEAS. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ADVERSE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES STRONG AND SEAS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS APPEAR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63







000
FXUS64 KBRO 311135 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
635 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IN LIGHT OF A MORE ROBUST FORECAST BASED ON THE FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA THIS MORNING...LIKEWISE BEEFED UP THE TAFS TO
INCLUDE A FEW HOURS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR CEILINGS LATE THIS
MORNING. DEPENDING ON THR EXACT TIMING...THAT PORTION OF THE TAFS
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE THE CEILING AND
VISIBILITY TO IFR...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. ONCE THE SOMEWHAT RAGGED
LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...NOW ABREAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI...MOVES
THROUGH...THERE WILL BE QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EWX
CWA THIS MORNING AT ABOUT 30 MPH AND WILL KEEP THINGS INTERESTING
IN THE SHORT TERM. REVAMPED THE FIRST COUPLE OF PERIODS A BIT TO
INCREASE OVERALL POPS. SPEED OF ADVANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOWER VALLEY FROM ROUGHLY 10 AM TO NOON. ONCE
THROUGH HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND COOLER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER VALLEY MAY
ACHIEVE THE MID 80S TODAY...BUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY LOWER 80S WILL BE MORE THE NORM. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE CLUSTER AND A POCKET OF ENERGY AT BOTH
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING SOME OF THE LIFT.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF AN
ADVANCING MID LEVEL RIDGE...WITH PERHAPS THE SLIGHTEST BIT OF
SUBTROPICAL JET LIFT IN THE MIX AS WELL.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR HOWEVER...WITH LOW TEMPS FROM THE LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST AND AT BROWNSVILLE. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND COOLER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 70S...CLOSE TO NORMAL. JUST A FEW SHOWERS MAY MATERIALIZE OFF
SHORE IF WINDS VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEAST QUICK ENOUGH...BUT POPS WILL
REMAIN SILENT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY STILL LOOK BREEZY TO WINDY AS STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTERACT
WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL
US...FORCED BY A STRENGTHENING AND BROADENING UPPER LEVEL JET
MAXIMUM AHEAD OF A DIGGING SOUTHWESTERN US TROUGH. WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE...WITH 35 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
ADVECT IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT PRECIPITATION MAY BE HARD TO
COME BY AS SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IMPINGES ON THE AREA WITH
DRY AIR PERHAPS CAPPING MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE FORM OF STREAMER
SHOWERS AND TUESDAY THESE SHOWERS MOVE INTO AREAS EAST OF HWY 281.

MODELS STILL HAVING ISSUES RESOLVING THE SOUTHERN STREAM VORTICITY
AND RESULTANT CLOSED LOW OVER WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. OF THE AVAILABLE OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE CMC IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN BRINGING IT ACROSS AROUND
12 HOURS LATER. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT BRING
A FRONT THROUGH AND KEEPS IT NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AS CONSISTENT AS I CAN LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AND BLENDING WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORS. MADE
LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD BUT DID RAISE
POPS ALONG OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE BEST PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION EXISTS WITH THE INJECTION OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL STORM VANCE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS SEAS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE A FRONT MOVES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT
WILL CLEAR THE AREA. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
TONIGHT...BRINGING ABOUT EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
MORE THAN ABOUT 5 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF ELEVATED WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
MODERATE FLOW WILL RULE THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH MODERATE
SEAS. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ADVERSE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES STRONG AND SEAS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS APPEAR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55







000
FXUS64 KBRO 310854
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
354 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EWX
CWA THIS MORNING AT ABOUT 30 MPH AND WILL KEEP THINGS INTERESTING
IN THE SHORT TERM. REVAMPED THE FIRST COUPLE OF PERIODS A BIT TO
INCREASE OVERALL POPS. SPEED OF ADVANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOWER VALLEY FROM ROUGHLY 10 AM TO NOON. ONCE
THROUGH HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND COOLER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER VALLEY MAY
ACHIEVE THE MID 80S TODAY...BUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY LOWER 80S WILL BE MORE THE NORM. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE CLUSTER AND A POCKET OF ENERGY AT BOTH
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING SOME OF THE LIFT.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF AN
ADVANCING MID LEVEL RIDGE...WITH PERHAPS THE SLIGHTEST BIT OF
SUBTROPICAL JET LIFT IN THE MIX AS WELL.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR HOWEVER...WITH LOW TEMPS FROM THE LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST AND AT BROWNSVILLE. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND COOLER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 70S...CLOSE TO NORMAL. JUST A FEW SHOWERS MAY MATERIALIZE OFF
SHORE IF WINDS VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEAST QUICK ENOUGH...BUT POPS WILL
REMAIN SILENT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY STILL LOOK BREEZY TO WINDY AS STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTERACT
WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL
US...FORCED BY A STRENGTHENING AND BROADENING UPPER LEVEL JET
MAXIMUM AHEAD OF A DIGGING SOUTHWESTERN US TROUGH. WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE...WITH 35 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
ADVECT IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT PRECIPITATION MAY BE HARD TO
COME BY AS SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IMPINGES ON THE AREA WITH
DRY AIR PERHAPS CAPPING MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE FORM OF STREAMER
SHOWERS AND TUESDAY THESE SHOWERS MOVE INTO AREAS EAST OF HWY 281.

MODELS STILL HAVING ISSUES RESOLVING THE SOUTHERN STREAM VORTICITY
AND RESULTANT CLOSED LOW OVER WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. OF THE AVAILABLE OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE CMC IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN BRINGING IT ACROSS AROUND
12 HOURS LATER. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT BRING
A FRONT THROUGH AND KEEPS IT NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AS CONSISTENT AS I CAN LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AND BLENDING WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORS. MADE
LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD BUT DID RAISE
POPS ALONG OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE BEST PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION EXISTS WITH THE INJECTION OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL STORM VANCE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS SEAS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE A FRONT MOVES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT
WILL CLEAR THE AREA. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
TONIGHT...BRINGING ABOUT EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
MORE THAN ABOUT 5 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF ELEVATED WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
MODERATE FLOW WILL RULE THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH MODERATE
SEAS. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ADVERSE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES STRONG AND SEAS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS APPEAR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  66  77  65 /  50   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          82  64  78  63 /  50  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            82  61  78  61 /  50   0  10  10
MCALLEN              84  61  79  62 /  60   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  58  78  60 /  60   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  69  76  69 /  60   0  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...CAMPBELL







000
FXUS64 KBRO 310528 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1228 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT GROUND FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAWN. DEEP
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT SOME MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE NEAR THE
SURFACE. THE SOUNDING EXHIBITS NO APPRECIABLE CAP AND IS
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. LOW CLOUDS MAY ACT AGAINST THICKER FOG
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM A CEILING/VSBY COMBINATION THROUGH DAWN...BUT MORE FROM
CEILINGS AFTER DAWN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST TOWARD DAWN AS WELL...WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT UPPER ENERGY ABOVE THE SYSTEM COULD HELP
INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERTAKE
THE AREA BY THIS EVENING...WITH A DISAPPEARANCE OF CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
MVFR CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.
TEMPO GROUPS WERE INCLUDED INDICATING THE BEST TIME FOR FOG AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
EXPECT A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
INCREASE IN WINDS NO MORE THAN 15 KNOTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL BRING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON. BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS
AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE
EASTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE RIDGING EMERGES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS MOVEMENT IS FORCED BY SHARP MID LEVEL RIDGING THAT
SHOULD AID IN KEEPING THE COLUMN DRY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
AIR WILL ALSO BE CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING SHIFTS A COOLER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
POLEWARD.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL LOOK BREEZY TO WINDY AS STRONG RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
INTERACT WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL
US...FORCED BY A STRENGTHENING AND BROADENING UPPER LEVEL JET
MAXIMUM AHEAD OF AD DIGGING SOUTHWESTERN US TROUGH. WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 35 MPH LOOK LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET BOTH DAYS. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING IN MOISTURE...WHICH MAY HELP A
FEW COASTAL SHOWERS CROP UP...BUT 20 TO 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 700 MB
FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR DEEPER SHOWERS AND STORMS LIMITED.

12Z GUIDANCE SUITE SHOWS BETTER AGREEMENT ON TUE-THU COLD FRONT
EVOLUTION. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOTED THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE APPEARED TO
SHOW A LARGER NUMBER OF MEMBERS GOING WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION THAN IT
HAD IN PREVIOUS RUNS. FORECAST WENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
CONSENSUS WHICH PROVIDES STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP DRYING/CAPPING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THE BROAD JET MAXIMUM AHEAD
OF THE SLOWLY MOVING TROUGH CATCHES WHAT IS CURRENTLY TD 21-E AND
RAPIDLY ADVECTS IT NORTHEASTWARD. THIS RESULTS IN AN APPRECIABLE
INCREASE IN COLUMN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WENT WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS FOR THE FORECAST WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE CLOSE TO AND
IMMEDIATELY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE COLD ADVECTION AND
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION CUT OFF LIFT. KEPT THE POPS A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AGAIN MAINLY OVER TIMING CONCERNS. MAY BE
ABLE TO START RAMPING UP POPS IN THE NEXT CYCLE OR TWO WITH THE NEW
FOUND GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. MARINE IMPACTS LOOKING MORE LIKELY AS WELL
WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST
HIGHS FALL ABOUT 8 TO 10 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS MAXES. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 4 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRI
MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE FRI
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE MODERATE EAST WINDS ON SATURDAY
SHOULD PRODUCE RELATIVELY LOW SEAS AND FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS.
STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO AT LEAST EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL BE AT LEAST MODERATE AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY ROUGH.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55







000
FXUS64 KBRO 302324
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
624 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
MVFR CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.
TEMPO GROUPS WERE INCLUDED INDICATING THE BEST TIME FOR FOG AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
EXPECT A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
INCREASE IN WINDS NO MORE THAN 15 KNOTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL BRING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON. BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS
AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE
EASTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE RIDGING EMERGES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS MOVEMENT IS FORCED BY SHARP MID LEVEL RIDGING THAT
SHOULD AID IN KEEPING THE COLUMN DRY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
AIR WILL ALSO BE CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING SHIFTS A COOLER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
POLEWARD.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL LOOK BREEZY TO WINDY AS STRONG RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
INTERACT WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL
US...FORCED BY A STRENGTHENING AND BROADENING UPPER LEVEL JET
MAXIMUM AHEAD OF AD DIGGING SOUTHWESTERN US TROUGH. WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 35 MPH LOOK LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET BOTH DAYS. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING IN MOISTURE...WHICH MAY HELP A
FEW COASTAL SHOWERS CROP UP...BUT 20 TO 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 700 MB
FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR DEEPER SHOWERS AND STORMS LIMITED.

12Z GUIDANCE SUITE SHOWS BETTER AGREEMENT ON TUE-THU COLD FRONT
EVOLUTION. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOTED THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE APPEARED TO
SHOW A LARGER NUMBER OF MEMBERS GOING WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION THAN IT
HAD IN PREVIOUS RUNS. FORECAST WENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
CONSENSUS WHICH PROVIDES STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP DRYING/CAPPING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THE BROAD JET MAXIMUM AHEAD
OF THE SLOWLY MOVING TROUGH CATCHES WHAT IS CURRENTLY TD 21-E AND
RAPIDLY ADVECTS IT NORTHEASTWARD. THIS RESULTS IN AN APPRECIABLE
INCREASE IN COLUMN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WENT WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS FOR THE FORECAST WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE CLOSE TO AND
IMMEDIATELY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE COLD ADVECTION AND
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION CUT OFF LIFT. KEPT THE POPS A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AGAIN MAINLY OVER TIMING CONCERNS. MAY BE
ABLE TO START RAMPING UP POPS IN THE NEXT CYCLE OR TWO WITH THE NEW
FOUND GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. MARINE IMPACTS LOOKING MORE LIKELY AS WELL
WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST
HIGHS FALL ABOUT 8 TO 10 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS MAXES. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 4 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRI
MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE FRI
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE MODERATE EAST WINDS ON SATURDAY
SHOULD PRODUCE RELATIVELY LOW SEAS AND FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS.
STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO AT LEAST EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL BE AT LEAST MODERATE AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY ROUGH.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/60








000
FXUS64 KBRO 302019
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
319 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL BRING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON. BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS
AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE
EASTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE RIDGING EMERGES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS MOVEMENT IS FORCED BY SHARP MID LEVEL RIDGING THAT
SHOULD AID IN KEEPING THE COLUMN DRY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
AIR WILL ALSO BE CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING SHIFTS A COOLER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
POLEWARD.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL LOOK BREEZY TO WINDY AS STRONG RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
INTERACT WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL
US...FORCED BY A STRENGTHENING AND BROADENING UPPER LEVEL JET
MAXIMUM AHEAD OF AD DIGGING SOUTHWESTERN US TROUGH. WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 35 MPH LOOK LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET BOTH DAYS. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING IN MOISTURE...WHICH MAY HELP A
FEW COASTAL SHOWERS CROP UP...BUT 20 TO 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 700 MB
FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR DEEPER SHOWERS AND STORMS LIMITED.

12Z GUIDANCE SUITE SHOWS BETTER AGREEMENT ON TUE-THU COLD FRONT
EVOLUTION. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOTED THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE APPEARED TO
SHOW A LARGER NUMBER OF MEMBERS GOING WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION THAN IT
HAD IN PREVIOUS RUNS. FORECAST WENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
CONSENSUS WHICH PROVIDES STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP DRYING/CAPPING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THE BROAD JET MAXIMUM AHEAD
OF THE SLOWLY MOVING TROUGH CATCHES WHAT IS CURRENTLY TD 21-E AND
RAPIDLY ADVECTS IT NORTHEASTWARD. THIS RESULTS IN AN APPRECIABLE
INCREASE IN COLUMN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WENT WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS FOR THE FORECAST WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE CLOSE TO AND
IMMEDIATELY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE COLD ADVECTION AND
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION CUT OFF LIFT. KEPT THE POPS A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AGAIN MAINLY OVER TIMING CONCERNS. MAY BE
ABLE TO START RAMPING UP POPS IN THE NEXT CYCLE OR TWO WITH THE NEW
FOUND GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. MARINE IMPACTS LOOKING MORE LIKELY AS WELL
WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST
HIGHS FALL ABOUT 8 TO 10 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS MAXES. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 4 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRI
MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE FRI
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE MODERATE EAST WINDS ON SATURDAY
SHOULD PRODUCE RELATIVELY LOW SEAS AND FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS.
STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO AT LEAST EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL BE AT LEAST MODERATE AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY ROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  84  66  78 /  10  20   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          68  85  64  79 /  10  20  10   0
HARLINGEN            67  85  61  79 /  10  20   0   0
MCALLEN              67  86  62  79 /  10  20   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      67  86  59  79 /  10  30   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   72  83  69  77 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/68







000
FXUS64 KBRO 301704 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1204 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY AS CEILINGS LOWER AND LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
DEVELOPS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI
MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR FOG 3-5SM EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN VFR CUMULUS. SCT-BKN SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR FOG AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS.
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BUT BETTER
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES
OVER THE COASTAL BEND EXTENDING WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
NORTH OF CWA. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIDGE ACROSS THE
FRONT LATER TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE ARKLATEX. NO APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE WITH WINDS TURNING
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL NOT CONSIDER THIS MUCH OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH A SHALLOW
BAND OF STRATUS CUMULUS DEVELOPING AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. NO
FORCING WITH THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS
OUTSIDE OF A ONE OR TWO LIGHT SHOWERS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT NOT
APPRECIABLE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
PERSISTENT WITH TODAY`S HIGHS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT USHERING IN A MODERATE SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN TROUGH AND WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN RANCH LANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND TRACKS THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING
CLEARING THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER BEFORE NOON. MODELS SUGGESTING
DEEPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SUBTLE LIFT AND
MODEST INSTABILITY. THE LOW END CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS RANCH
LANDS WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER UPSLOPE EXISTING WITH THE NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING WITH THE FRONT AND CAPES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG WILL MENTION THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL AS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS/ECMWF IN POPS AND
TEMPS. NAM IS WETTER AND COOLER WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF IS NOT AS
BULLISH WITH POPS THUS KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER. A BLEND
OF THE MODELS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE RGV EARLY ENOUGH AND IT LOOKS LIKE DRIER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO THE VALLEY JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET WITH THE RAIN CHANCES ENDING
BEFORE THE GHOST AND GOBLINS EMERGE FOR THEIR ANNUAL BEGGING NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...RAIN CHANCES ARE
PRETTY MUCH NIL FRIDAY NIGHT SO THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE AREA AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AROUND DUSK AND
FALL INTO THE 60S BY 10 PM.

THIS WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT ONE WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL
AS IT HEADS INTO THE ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST.
WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH THE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BUT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING.

A RATHER POTENT LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STATES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND MOVING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL
SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE TROUGH
LIFTING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL ADD EXTRA MOISTURE TO THE MIX WITH PWATS OVER 2
INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME TROUBLE RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
TROUGH NEXT WEEK WHICH HAS RAMIFICATIONS ON THE SURFACE FEATURES AND
ESPECIALLY THE COLD FRONT...THE STRENGTH...AND THE TIMING. THE ECMWF
APPEARS NOW TO BE THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A STRONGER CLOSED LOW IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WHEREAS THE GFS IS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION OF THE GFS WHICH WILL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. POP NUMBERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE INCREASED FORECAST POPS A LITTLE BUT AM BELOW
GUIDANCE A LITTLE AS WELL UNTIL BETTER CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE COASTAL BEND TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT LIGHT SPEEDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY MORNING WITH
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING AND APPROACHING EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW SEAS TODAY AND FRIDAY MORNING
BEGIN TO BUILD WITH THE BAY WATERS BECOMING CHOPPY LATER FRIDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SLOW RETURNING
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LAGUNA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/68/MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 301704 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1204 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY AS CEILINGS LOWER AND LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
DEVELOPS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI
MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR FOG 3-5SM EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN VFR CUMULUS. SCT-BKN SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR FOG AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS.
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BUT BETTER
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES
OVER THE COASTAL BEND EXTENDING WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
NORTH OF CWA. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIDGE ACROSS THE
FRONT LATER TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE ARKLATEX. NO APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE WITH WINDS TURNING
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL NOT CONSIDER THIS MUCH OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH A SHALLOW
BAND OF STRATUS CUMULUS DEVELOPING AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. NO
FORCING WITH THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS
OUTSIDE OF A ONE OR TWO LIGHT SHOWERS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT NOT
APPRECIABLE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
PERSISTENT WITH TODAY`S HIGHS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT USHERING IN A MODERATE SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN TROUGH AND WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN RANCH LANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND TRACKS THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING
CLEARING THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER BEFORE NOON. MODELS SUGGESTING
DEEPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SUBTLE LIFT AND
MODEST INSTABILITY. THE LOW END CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS RANCH
LANDS WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER UPSLOPE EXISTING WITH THE NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING WITH THE FRONT AND CAPES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG WILL MENTION THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL AS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS/ECMWF IN POPS AND
TEMPS. NAM IS WETTER AND COOLER WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF IS NOT AS
BULLISH WITH POPS THUS KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER. A BLEND
OF THE MODELS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE RGV EARLY ENOUGH AND IT LOOKS LIKE DRIER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO THE VALLEY JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET WITH THE RAIN CHANCES ENDING
BEFORE THE GHOST AND GOBLINS EMERGE FOR THEIR ANNUAL BEGGING NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...RAIN CHANCES ARE
PRETTY MUCH NIL FRIDAY NIGHT SO THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE AREA AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AROUND DUSK AND
FALL INTO THE 60S BY 10 PM.

THIS WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT ONE WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL
AS IT HEADS INTO THE ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST.
WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH THE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BUT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING.

A RATHER POTENT LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STATES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND MOVING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL
SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE TROUGH
LIFTING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL ADD EXTRA MOISTURE TO THE MIX WITH PWATS OVER 2
INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME TROUBLE RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
TROUGH NEXT WEEK WHICH HAS RAMIFICATIONS ON THE SURFACE FEATURES AND
ESPECIALLY THE COLD FRONT...THE STRENGTH...AND THE TIMING. THE ECMWF
APPEARS NOW TO BE THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A STRONGER CLOSED LOW IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WHEREAS THE GFS IS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION OF THE GFS WHICH WILL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. POP NUMBERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE INCREASED FORECAST POPS A LITTLE BUT AM BELOW
GUIDANCE A LITTLE AS WELL UNTIL BETTER CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE COASTAL BEND TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT LIGHT SPEEDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY MORNING WITH
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING AND APPROACHING EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW SEAS TODAY AND FRIDAY MORNING
BEGIN TO BUILD WITH THE BAY WATERS BECOMING CHOPPY LATER FRIDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SLOW RETURNING
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LAGUNA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/68/MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 301121
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
621 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR FOG 3-5SM EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN VFR CUMULUS. SCT-BKN SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR FOG AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS.
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BUT BETTER
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES
OVER THE COASTAL BEND EXTENDING WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
NORTH OF CWA. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIDGE ACROSS THE
FRONT LATER TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE ARKLATEX. NO APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE WITH WINDS TURNING
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL NOT CONSIDER THIS MUCH OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH A SHALLOW
BAND OF STRATUS CUMULUS DEVELOPING AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. NO
FORCING WITH THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS
OUTSIDE OF A ONE OR TWO LIGHT SHOWERS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT NOT
APPRECIABLE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
PERSISTENT WITH TODAY`S HIGHS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT USHERING IN A MODERATE SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN TROUGH AND WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN RANCH LANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND TRACKS THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING
CLEARING THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER BEFORE NOON. MODELS SUGGESTING
DEEPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SUBTLE LIFT AND
MODEST INSTABILITY. THE LOW END CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS RANCH
LANDS WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER UPSLOPE EXISTING WITH THE NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING WITH THE FRONT AND CAPES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG WILL MENTION THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL AS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS/ECMWF IN POPS AND
TEMPS. NAM IS WETTER AND COOLER WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF IS NOT AS
BULLISH WITH POPS THUS KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER. A BLEND
OF THE MODELS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE RGV EARLY ENOUGH AND IT LOOKS LIKE DRIER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO THE VALLEY JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET WITH THE RAIN CHANCES ENDING
BEFORE THE GHOST AND GOBLINS EMERGE FOR THEIR ANNUAL BEGGING NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...RAIN CHANCES ARE
PRETTY MUCH NIL FRIDAY NIGHT SO THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE AREA AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AROUND DUSK AND
FALL INTO THE 60S BY 10 PM.

THIS WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT ONE WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL
AS IT HEADS INTO THE ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST.
WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH THE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BUT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING.

A RATHER POTENT LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STATES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND MOVING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL
SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE TROUGH
LIFTING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL ADD EXTRA MOISTURE TO THE MIX WITH PWATS OVER 2
INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME TROUBLE RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
TROUGH NEXT WEEK WHICH HAS RAMIFICATIONS ON THE SURFACE FEATURES AND
ESPECIALLY THE COLD FRONT...THE STRENGTH...AND THE TIMING. THE ECMWF
APPEARS NOW TO BE THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A STRONGER CLOSED LOW IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WHEREAS THE GFS IS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION OF THE GFS WHICH WILL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. POP NUMBERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE INCREASED FORECAST POPS A LITTLE BUT AM BELOW
GUIDANCE A LITTLE AS WELL UNTIL BETTER CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE COASTAL BEND TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT LIGHT SPEEDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY MORNING WITH
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING AND APPROACHING EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW SEAS TODAY AND FRIDAY MORNING
BEGIN TO BUILD WITH THE BAY WATERS BECOMING CHOPPY LATER FRIDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SLOW RETURNING
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LAGUNA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  84  69  85  66 /  10  10  20   0
BROWNSVILLE          86  67  85  64 /  10  10  20   0
HARLINGEN            86  66  85  60 /  10  10  20   0
MCALLEN              88  68  86  61 /  10  10  30  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  66  86  58 /  10  10  30  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   83  73  84  71 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...SHORT TERM/AVIATION
55...LONG TERM
BILLINGS...GRAPHICS/PSU







000
FXUS64 KBRO 300831
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
331 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES
OVER THE COASTAL BEND EXTENDING WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
NORTH OF CWA. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIDGE ACROSS THE
FRONT LATER TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE ARKLATEX. NO APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE WITH WINDS TURNING
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL NOT CONSIDER THIS MUCH OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH A SHALLOW
BAND OF STRATUS CUMULUS DEVELOPING AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. NO
FORCING WITH THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS
OUTSIDE OF A ONE OR TWO LIGHT SHOWERS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT NOT
APPRECIABLE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
PERSISTENT WITH TODAY`S HIGHS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT USHERING IN A MODERATE SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN TROUGH AND WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN RANCH LANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND TRACKS THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING
CLEARING THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER BEFORE NOON. MODELS SUGGESTING
DEEPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SUBTLE LIFT AND
MODEST INSTABILITY. THE LOW END CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS RANCH
LANDS WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER UPSLOPE EXISTING WITH THE NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING WITH THE FRONT AND CAPES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG WILL MENTION THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL AS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS/ECMWF IN POPS AND
TEMPS. NAM IS WETTER AND COOLER WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF IS NOT AS
BULLISH WITH POPS THUS KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER. A BLEND
OF THE MODELS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE RGV EARLY ENOUGH AND IT LOOKS LIKE DRIER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO THE VALLEY JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET WITH THE RAIN CHANCES ENDING
BEFORE THE GHOST AND GOBLINS EMERGE FOR THEIR ANNUAL BEGGING NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...RAIN CHANCES ARE
PRETTY MUCH NIL FRIDAY NIGHT SO THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE AREA AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AROUND DUSK AND
FALL INTO THE 60S BY 10 PM.

THIS WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT ONE WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL
AS IT HEADS INTO THE ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST.
WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH THE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BUT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING.

A RATHER POTENT LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STATES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND MOVING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL
SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE TROUGH
LIFTING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL ADD EXTRA MOISTURE TO THE MIX WITH PWATS OVER 2
INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME TROUBLE RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
TROUGH NEXT WEEK WHICH HAS RAMIFICATIONS ON THE SURFACE FEATURES AND
ESPECIALLY THE COLD FRONT...THE STRENGTH...AND THE TIMING. THE ECMWF
APPEARS NOW TO BE THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A STRONGER CLOSED LOW IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WHEREAS THE GFS IS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION OF THE GFS WHICH WILL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. POP NUMBERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE INCREASED FORECAST POPS A LITTLE BUT AM BELOW
GUIDANCE A LITTLE AS WELL UNTIL BETTER CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

&&

.MARINE /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE COASTAL BEND TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT LIGHT SPEEDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY MORNING WITH
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING AND APPROACHING EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW SEAS TODAY AND FRIDAY MORNING
BEGIN TO BUILD WITH THE BAY WATERS BECOMING CHOPPY LATER FRIDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SLOW RETURNING
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LAGUNA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  84  69  85  66 /  10  10  20   0
BROWNSVILLE          86  67  85  64 /  10  10  20   0
HARLINGEN            86  66  85  60 /  10  10  20   0
MCALLEN              88  68  86  61 /  10  10  30  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  66  86  58 /  10  10  30  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   83  73  84  71 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...59
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58







000
FXUS64 KBRO 300544 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1244 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHES OF BKN-OVC STRATUS CUMULUS AT VFR LEVELS TO
EXPAND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE IF THE STRATUS DOES NOT
INTERFERE WITH THE FOG FORMATION. SCT-BKN VFR CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE DAY. UNCERTAINTY IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT GAINS STRENGTH OVER NORTH TEXAS AND MOVES INTO SOUTH
TEXAS AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING BECOME NORTHEAST AT AROUND
10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME
CALM WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT LOWER VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MOVES MORE
EAST THAN SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT AS A RESULT AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS A RESULT. LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT ONE TO THE NORTH...MOVES INTO
SOUTH TX. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA THURS NIGHT AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BREEZY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...COLD FRONT WITH RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD TO THE NORTH. MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BOTH BE LIMITED THOUGH SO EXPECTING ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO SEND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS ABOUT 3
DEGREES OFF THURSDAYS NUMBERS.

THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF PLAINS RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY WITH STRONG MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOLLOWING
BEHIND IT...CENTERED ROUGHLY OVERHEAD AND STRETCHING INTO THE
DAKOTAS. THIS WILL SHIFT LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE EAST AND THIS
ONSHORE FLOW...COUPLED WITH WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL FURTHER
NUDGE TEMPS DOWN ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. THE STRONG
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DRYING SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO
DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT
700MB AND DRY LOWER AND MID LEVEL AIR JUSTIFY KEEPING RAIN CHANCES
OUT OF THE FORECAST. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS SPEEDS POSSIBLE. SYNOPTIC PICTURE IN 12Z SUITE
LOOKS TOO WEAK FOR WIND ADVISORY TYPE CONDITIONS BUT THE BROAD 30 TO
35 KT JET AT 850MB IN BOTH GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 12Z ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH 250 MB RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH RESULTS IN A SHARPER AND LONGER
ORIENTATION TO A JET MAX ON AHEAD OF SHARP TROUGHING DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THE GFS IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS RIDGING AND
DEPICTS A BROADER JET MAX WHICH BEGINS AIDING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT
BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND ADVANCES THE COLD FRONT MORE
QUICKLY AND GENERATES A STRONGER 850 MB CYCLONE THAT IMPACTS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

USED A SYNOPTIC BLEND FOR THE FORECAST TODAY WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE
ECMWF. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS
AND A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 700MB WINDS INCREASING CAPPING AND REQUIRING STRONGER
MID LEVEL ASCENT OR A SURFACE FRONT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BELIEVE THE GFS HAS UNDERDONE THE IMPACT OF THIS CAPPING/DRYING AND
OVER DID THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN 850MB CYCLONE THAT DRAMATICALLY
INCREASES COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS RUNNING AROUND 2.00 INCHES WHEN
THE FRONT ARRIVES. THE NEW FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS IN
BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT WITH RAIN
CHANCES STARTING TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
STAYING AT AROUND 30 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. HELD LOWER
POPS MAINLY FOR TIMING CONCERNS AS THE ACTUAL RAIN/THUNDER ACTIVITY
WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE ACTUAL
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT LOOKS PRETTY HIGH. TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE FRONT DROP APPRECIABLY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 4 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS COASTAL BEND REMAINS
STATIONARY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST AND BECOME MORE MODERATE ON SATURDAY.
STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL
WINDS LOOK LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ON THE LAGUNA MADRE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/51







000
FXUS64 KBRO 292333
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
633 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME
CALM WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT LOWER VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MOVES MORE
EAST THAN SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT AS A RESULT AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS A RESULT. LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT ONE TO THE NORTH...MOVES INTO
SOUTH TX. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA THURS NIGHT AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BREEZY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...COLD FRONT WITH RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD TO THE NORTH. MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BOTH BE LIMITED THOUGH SO EXPECTING ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO SEND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS ABOUT 3
DEGREES OFF THURSDAYS NUMBERS.

THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF PLAINS RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY WITH STRONG MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOLLOWING
BEHIND IT...CENTERED ROUGHLY OVERHEAD AND STRETCHING INTO THE
DAKOTAS. THIS WILL SHIFT LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE EAST AND THIS
ONSHORE FLOW...COUPLED WITH WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL FURTHER
NUDGE TEMPS DOWN ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. THE STRONG
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DRYING SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO
DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT
700MB AND DRY LOWER AND MID LEVEL AIR JUSTIFY KEEPING RAIN CHANCES
OUT OF THE FORECAST. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS SPEEDS POSSIBLE. SYNOPTIC PICTURE IN 12Z SUITE
LOOKS TOO WEAK FOR WIND ADVISORY TYPE CONDITIONS BUT THE BROAD 30 TO
35 KT JET AT 850MB IN BOTH GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 12Z ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH 250 MB RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH RESULTS IN A SHARPER AND LONGER
ORIENTATION TO A JET MAX ON AHEAD OF SHARP TROUGHING DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THE GFS IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS RIDGING AND
DEPICTS A BROADER JET MAX WHICH BEGINS AIDING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT
BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND ADVANCES THE COLD FRONT MORE
QUICKLY AND GENERATES A STRONGER 850 MB CYCLONE THAT IMPACTS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

USED A SYNOPTIC BLEND FOR THE FORECAST TODAY WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE
ECMWF. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS
AND A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 700MB WINDS INCREASING CAPPING AND REQUIRING STRONGER
MID LEVEL ASCENT OR A SURFACE FRONT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BELIEVE THE GFS HAS UNDERDONE THE IMPACT OF THIS CAPPING/DRYING AND
OVER DID THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN 850MB CYCLONE THAT DRAMATICALLY
INCREASES COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS RUNNING AROUND 2.00 INCHES WHEN
THE FRONT ARRIVES. THE NEW FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS IN
BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT WITH RAIN
CHANCES STARTING TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
STAYING AT AROUND 30 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. HELD LOWER
POPS MAINLY FOR TIMING CONCERNS AS THE ACTUAL RAIN/THUNDER ACTIVITY
WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE ACTUAL
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT LOOKS PRETTY HIGH. TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE FRONT DROP APPRECIABLY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 4 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS COASTAL BEND REMAINS
STATIONARY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST AND BECOME MORE MODERATE ON SATURDAY.
STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL
WINDS LOOK LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ON THE LAGUNA MADRE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/60








000
FXUS64 KBRO 292025
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
325 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MOVES MORE
EAST THAN SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT AS A RESULT AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS A RESULT. LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT ONE TO THE NORTH...MOVES INTO
SOUTH TX. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA THURS NIGHT AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BREEZY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...COLD FRONT WITH RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESSDAY.

KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD TO THE NORTH. MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BOTH BE LIMITED THOUGH SO EXPECTING ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO SEND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS ABOUT 3
DEGREES OFF THURSDAYS NUMBERS.

THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF PLAINS RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY WITH STRONG MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOLLOWING
BEHIND IT...CENTERED ROUGHLY OVERHEAD AND STRETCHING INTO THE
DAKOTAS. THIS WILL SHIFT LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE EAST AND THIS
ONSHORE FLOW...COUPLED WITH WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL FURTHER
NUDGE TEMPS DOWN ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. THE STRONG
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DRYING SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO
DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT
700MB AND DRY LOWER AND MID LEVEL AIR JUSTIFY KEEPING RAIN CHANCES
OUT OF THE FORECAST. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS SPEEDS POSSIBLE. SYNOPTIC PICTURE IN 12Z SUITE
LOOKS TOO WEAK FOR WIND ADVISORY TYPE CONDITIONS BUT THE BROAD 30 TO
35 KT JET AT 850MB IN BOTH GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 12Z ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH 250 MB RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH RESULTS IN A SHARPER AND LONGER
ORIENTATION TO A JET MAX ON AHEAD OF SHARP TROUGHING DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THE GFS IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS RIDGING AND
DEPICTS A BROADER JET MAX WHICH BEGINS AIDING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT
BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND ADVANCES THE COLD FRONT MORE
QUICKLY AND GENERATES A STRONGER 850 MB CYCLONE THAT IMPACTS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

USED A SYNOPTIC BLEND FOR THE FORECAST TODAY WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE
ECMWF. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS
AND A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 700MB WINDS INCREASING CAPPING AND REQUIRING STRONGER
MID LEVEL ASCENT OR A SURFACE FRONT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BELIEVE THE GFS HAS UNDERDONE THE IMPACT OF THIS CAPPING/DRYING AND
OVER DID THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN 850MB CYCLONE THAT DRAMATICALLY
INCREASES COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS RUNNING AROUND 2.00 INCHES WHEN
THE FRONT ARRIVES. THE NEW FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS IN
BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT WITH RAIN
CHANCES STARTING TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
STAYING AT AROUND 30 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. HELD LOWER
POPS MAINLY FOR TIMING CONCERNS AS THE ACTUAL RAIN/THUNDER ACTIVITY
WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE ACTUAL
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT LOOKS PRETTY HIGH. TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE FRONT DROP APPRECIABLY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 4 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS COASTAL BEND REMAINS
STATIONARY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST AND BECOME MORE MODERATE ON SATURDAY.
STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL
WINDS LOOK LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ON THE LAGUNA MADRE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  69  83  69  83 /  10  10  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          67  86  67  85 /  10  10  10  20
HARLINGEN            66  87  66  84 /  10  10  20  20
MCALLEN              67  87  67  85 /  10  10  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      67  88  66  86 /  10  10  30  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   72  81  71  83 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...CASTILLO
LONG TERM...GIBBS
UPPER AIR/GRAPHICAST...MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 291717 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1217 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WERE
NEAR 3000FT AT KT65 TO NEAR 5000FT AT KEBG. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR
6SM WITH HAZE AT KPIL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE FOG DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS A
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ALLOWS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN COMBINATION WITH
CALM WINDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH NO FOG BEING
REPORTED AT THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS. SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE A DECK
OF STRATUS CUMULUS AROUND 4-6K FEET LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF KBRO.
THIS DECK OF CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD NORTH OVER THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING AND TODAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. PATCHY TO AREAS OF LIGHT FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE THURSDAY PROVIDING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
VSBY WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO BE LIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE COLD FRONT REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH VERY
SLOWLY LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
BECOMES INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
ROCKIES AND LARGE TROUGH BECOMING CARVED OUT ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND EAST...THE FRONT PICKS UP SOME FORWARD MOMENTUM.

LOOKING AT MODEL SURFACE MSL PRESSURE CHANGES, DEW POINTS AND
TEMPERATURES LITTLE TO NO AIRMASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA
ON THURSDAY. ALL PARAMETERS WITH EXCEPTION TO A BACKING WIND
INDICATES THE FRONT LOOSES ALL FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT ARRIVES
IN OUR REGION THURSDAY. WINDS ARE THE ONLY INDICATOR OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM AS THEY BACK EAST TO NORTHEAST. NOT GOING TO PUT ANY TIMING
ON THE FRONT WITH THE WEAK NATURE OF THIS BOUNDARY. WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER PLACES THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY AND JUST SOUTH OF THE RIVER BY SUNSET.

WITH THIS SAID TODAY`S AND THURSDAY`S FORECAST TO REMAIN UNCHANGED
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENED. ISOLATED PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING COULD
SEE A BIT MORE COVERAGE THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME POOLING OF
SURFACE MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED AND SHALLOW AND WITH LITTLE TO FORCING WITH THE
FRONT DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION WITH EXCEPTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON THE WAY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SWEEP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLAY FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BEFORE THE FRONT SCOURS
OUT THE LOW LEVELS AND DRY AIR INVADES THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY TO THE MIDWEST SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE
PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH OF THE VALLEY
WHICH MEANS A NICE COOL MORNING IN THE RANCHLANDS SATURDAY WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 50S THERE WITH LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL SWITCH
OVER TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH WAA DRAWING UP MOISTURE AND INCREASING
DEWPOINTS. THIS WEEKEND LOOKS DRY.

ATTENTION TURNS TO A STRONG S/W TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY. LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WHICH WILL RATCHET UP THE WINDS TO BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY.
STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AND/OR MOVING INLAND MONDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KICKS OUT
MONDAY WITH THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY S/W TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS MONDAY NIGHT AND SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
FEATURE WILL WORK TO DRAW UP A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PROGGED IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AS A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME
TEMPORARILY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
BACK EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. THE FRONT REMAINS WEAK AS IT OOZES THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST BUT REMAINING LIGHT
WITH NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION WORDING EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SCEC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR SATURDAY WITH MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS STRENGTHENS SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD. WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY WITH SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEN
WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST AFTER THIS MARINE PERIOD.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/68/MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 291124 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
624 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH NO FOG BEING
REPORTED AT THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS. SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE A DECK
OF STRATUS CUMULUS AROUND 4-6K FEET LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF KBRO.
THIS DECK OF CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD NORTH OVER THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING AND TODAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. PATCHY TO AREAS OF LIGHT FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE THURSDAY PROVIDING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
VSBY WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO BE LIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE COLD FRONT REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH VERY
SLOWLY LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
BECOMES INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
ROCKIES AND LARGE TROUGH BECOMING CARVED OUT ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND EAST...THE FRONT PICKS UP SOME FORWARD MOMENTUM.

LOOKING AT MODEL SURFACE MSL PRESSURE CHANGES, DEW POINTS AND
TEMPERATURES LITTLE TO NO AIRMASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA
ON THURSDAY. ALL PARAMETERS WITH EXCEPTION TO A BACKING WIND
INDICATES THE FRONT LOOSES ALL FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT ARRIVES
IN OUR REGION THURSDAY. WINDS ARE THE ONLY INDICATOR OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM AS THEY BACK EAST TO NORTHEAST. NOT GOING TO PUT ANY TIMING
ON THE FRONT WITH THE WEAK NATURE OF THIS BOUNDARY. WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER PLACES THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY AND JUST SOUTH OF THE RIVER BY SUNSET.

WITH THIS SAID TODAY`S AND THURSDAY`S FORECAST TO REMAIN UNCHANGED
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENED. ISOLATED PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING COULD
SEE A BIT MORE COVERAGE THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME POOLING OF
SURFACE MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED AND SHALLOW AND WITH LITTLE TO FORCING WITH THE
FRONT DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION WITH EXCEPTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON THE WAY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SWEEP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLAY FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BEFORE THE FRONT SCOURS
OUT THE LOW LEVELS AND DRY AIR INVADES THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY TO THE MIDWEST SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE
PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH OF THE VALLEY
WHICH MEANS A NICE COOL MORNING IN THE RANCHLANDS SATURDAY WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 50S THERE WITH LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL SWITCH
OVER TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH WAA DRAWING UP MOISTURE AND INCREASING
DEWPOINTS. THIS WEEKEND LOOKS DRY.

ATTENTION TURNS TO A STRONG S/W TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY. LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WHICH WILL RATCHET UP THE WINDS TO BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY.
STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AND/OR MOVING INLAND MONDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KICKS OUT
MONDAY WITH THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY S/W TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS MONDAY NIGHT AND SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
FEATURE WILL WORK TO DRAW UP A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PROGGED IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AS A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME
TEMPORARILY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
BACK EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. THE FRONT REMAINS WEAK AS IT OOZES THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST BUT REMAINING LIGHT
WITH NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION WORDING EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SCEC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR SATURDAY WITH MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS STRENGTHENS SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD. WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY WITH SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEN
WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST AFTER THIS MARINE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  84  70  83  70 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          85  68  85  68 /  10  10  10  20
HARLINGEN            86  66  85  66 /  10  10  10  20
MCALLEN              87  67  86  67 /  10  10  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  67  87  66 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   84  74  83  73 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/55







000
FXUS64 KBRO 290842
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
342 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE COLD FRONT REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH VERY
SLOWLY LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
BECOMES INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
ROCKIES AND LARGE TROUGH BECOMING CARVED OUT ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND EAST...THE FRONT PICKS UP SOME FORWARD MOMENTUM.

LOOKING AT MODEL SURFACE MSL PRESSURE CHANGES, DEW POINTS AND
TEMPERATURES LITTLE TO NO AIRMASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA
ON THURSDAY. ALL PARAMETERS WITH EXCEPTION TO A BACKING WIND
INDICATES THE FRONT LOOSES ALL FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT ARRIVES
IN OUR REGION THURSDAY. WINDS ARE THE ONLY INDICATOR OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM AS THEY BACK EAST TO NORTHEAST. NOT GOING TO PUT ANY TIMING
ON THE FRONT WITH THE WEAK NATURE OF THIS BOUNDARY. WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER PLACES THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY AND JUST SOUTH OF THE RIVER BY SUNSET.

WITH THIS SAID TODAY`S AND THURSDAY`S FORECAST TO REMAIN UNCHANGED
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENED. ISOLATED PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING COULD
SEE A BIT MORE COVERAGE THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME POOLING OF
SURFACE MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED AND SHALLOW AND WITH LITTLE TO FORCING WITH THE
FRONT DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION WITH EXCEPTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON THE WAY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SWEEP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLAY FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BEFORE THE FRONT SCOURS
OUT THE LOW LEVELS AND DRY AIR INVADES THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY TO THE MIDWEST SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE
PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH OF THE VALLEY
WHICH MEANS A NICE COOL MORNING IN THE RANCHLANDS SATURDAY WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 50S THERE WITH LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL SWITCH
OVER TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH WAA DRAWING UP MOISTURE AND INCREASING
DEWPOINTS. THIS WEEKEND LOOKS DRY.

ATTENTION TURNS TO A STRONG S/W TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY. LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WHICH WILL RATCHET UP THE WINDS TO BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY.
STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AND/OR MOVING INLAND MONDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KICKS OUT
MONDAY WITH THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY S/W TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS MONDAY NIGHT AND SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
FEATURE WILL WORK TO DRAW UP A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PROGGED IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AS A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME
TEMPORARILY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
BACK EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. THE FRONT REMAINS WEAK AS IT OOZES THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST BUT REMAINING LIGHT
WITH NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION WORDING EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SCEC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR SATURDAY WITH MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS STRENGTHENS SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD. WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY WITH SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEN
WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST AFTER THIS MARINE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  84  70  83  70 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          85  68  85  68 /  10  10  10  20
HARLINGEN            86  66  85  66 /  10  10  10  20
MCALLEN              87  67  86  67 /  10  10  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  67  87  66 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   84  74  83  73 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...59
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58







000
FXUS64 KBRO 290539 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1239 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH JUST A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR VSBY CONDITIONS BETWEEN
10-14Z. A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING CALM. SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG MAY FORM
PRIOR TO SUNRISE PRODUCING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...A SCT-BKN VFR CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4 AND 5K FEET IS
ANTICIPATED MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST
WIND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ALLOWING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LACKING A BIT SO KEPT TAFS MVFR
WHICH MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN INLAND COUNTIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE QUICKLY IN THE MORNING WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY. ANY WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WITHIN THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH AN EXTENDED COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTH
EAST AND CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE HEADWAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL SHIFT EAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO EAST AND
NORTHEAST. A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SAGGING SOUTH OVER THE NORTH GULF
COULD INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE GULF EAST OF
KENEDY COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL RGV TONIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES...WITH A FEW SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST OR EAST
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH TEMPS RANGE FROM 85 TO 90.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW PATCHY LIGHT FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MID VALLEY ONCE AGAIN...EVEN WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS IN THE AREA DUE TO THE TAIL END OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES WITH A FEW SLIGHTLY LOWER READINGS
FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOR THIS PACKAGE THE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
THE CONSISTENCY ON THE LONG TERM FORECAST. EARLY IN THE LONG TERM...
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF CONUS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AND HELP PUSH A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHEAST BRIEFLY
THURSDAY AND QUICKLY RETURN TO EAST DURING THE DAY. A REINFORCING
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY SHIFTING WINDS AGAIN
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD OF IT. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY FAVOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND GULF WATERS. RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD FROM THE WEST
KEEPING A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN CONTINUING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOW 60S BY SATURDAY
MORNING AFTER FRONT COMES THROUGH THE CWA. DRY AIR MOVES BEHIND THIS
FRONT AND WILL DIMINISH EVEN MORE THE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
NE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A STRONG UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO
THE PAC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY EARLY MONDAY AND PUSH A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT TOWARDS TEXAS. THIS WILL HELP RETURN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASE
WINDS OVER AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION AS IT WILL
INCREASE THE MID ND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ALSO...DUE TO WAA WITH THE
SE FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
80S DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER IN THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW
A TROPICAL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC COAST SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
STRENGTHENING AND BEING PULL NORTHEAST WITHIN THE UPPER LOW TAKING A
NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY. THE MODELS SUGGESTS THE REMNANTS OF THIS LOW
WILL SURGE NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA TUESDAY. LEFT INHERITED 25 TO 30
PERCENT POPS AS THE CONSISTENCY CONTINUES. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AROUND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LATE TUESDAY
AS THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD WHILE THE GFS IS MAINTAINING THE ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND KEEPING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZE SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN
ABUNDANCE IN MOISTURE WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION BY THE END
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF IS INTERACTING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE SOUTH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES...BUT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH APPROACH OF THE FRONT... LIGHTER WINDS
AND LOWER SEAS WILL BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MARINE AREAS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
AREA QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND DIMINISH AND ADDITIONAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FROPA WILL BE VERY WEAK SO THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST BUT WILL NOT PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD FROM
THE WEST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PAC NORTHWEST. THIS
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SE WINDS INCREASING CLOSE
TO SCA AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WILL DETERIORATE SEAS AS WELL AS THEY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
CLOSER TO 6 TO 7 FEET. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE SO THERE IS AN
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  71  84  70  82 /  10  20  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          69  84  68  83 /  10  10  20  20
HARLINGEN            68  85  66  84 /  10  20  20  10
MCALLEN              69  86  68  85 /  10  10  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      68  87  66  86 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   73  81  72  81 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/55







000
FXUS64 KBRO 282321 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
621 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ALLOWING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LACKING A BIT SO KEPT TAFS MVFR
WHICH MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN INLAND COUNTIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE QUICKLY IN THE MORNING WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY. ANY WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WITHIN THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH AN EXTENDED COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTH
EAST AND CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE HEADWAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL SHIFT EAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO EAST AND
NORTHEAST. A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SAGGING SOUTH OVER THE NORTH GULF
COULD INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE GULF EAST OF
KENEDY COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL RGV TONIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES...WITH A FEW SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST OR EAST
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH TEMPS RANGE FROM 85 TO 90.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW PATCHY LIGHT FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MID VALLEY ONCE AGAIN...EVEN WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS IN THE AREA DUE TO THE TAIL END OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES WITH A FEW SLIGHTLY LOWER READINGS
FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOR THIS PACKAGE THE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
THE CONSISTENCY ON THE LONG TERM FORECAST. EARLY IN THE LONG TERM...
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF CONUS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AND HELP PUSH A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHEAST BRIEFLY
THURSDAY AND QUICKLY RETURN TO EAST DURING THE DAY. A REINFORCING
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY SHIFTING WINDS AGAIN
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD OF IT. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY FAVOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND GULF WATERS. RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD FROM THE WEST
KEEPING A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN CONTINUING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOW 60S BY SATURDAY
MORNING AFTER FRONT COMES THROUGH THE CWA. DRY AIR MOVES BEHIND THIS
FRONT AND WILL DIMINISH EVEN MORE THE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
NE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A STRONG UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO
THE PAC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY EARLY MONDAY AND PUSH A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT TOWARDS TEXAS. THIS WILL HELP RETURN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASE
WINDS OVER AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION AS IT WILL
INCREASE THE MID ND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ALSO...DUE TO WAA WITH THE
SE FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
80S DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER IN THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW
A TROPICAL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC COAST SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
STRENGTHENING AND BEING PULL NORTHEAST WITHIN THE UPPER LOW TAKING A
NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY. THE MODELS SUGGESTS THE REMNANTS OF THIS LOW
WILL SURGE NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA TUESDAY. LEFT INHERITED 25 TO 30
PERCENT POPS AS THE CONSISTENCY CONTINUES. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AROUND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LATE TUESDAY
AS THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD WHILE THE GFS IS MAINTAINING THE ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND KEEPING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZE SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN
ABUNDANCE IN MOISTURE WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION BY THE END
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF IS INTERACTING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE SOUTH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES...BUT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH APPROACH OF THE FRONT... LIGHTER WINDS
AND LOWER SEAS WILL BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MARINE AREAS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
AREA QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND DIMINISH AND ADDITIONAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FROPA WILL BE VERY WEAK SO THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST BUT WILL NOT PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD FROM
THE WEST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PAC NORTHWEST. THIS
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SE WINDS INCREASING CLOSE
TO SCA AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WILL DETERIORATE SEAS AS WELL AS THEY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
CLOSER TO 6 TO 7 FEET. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE SO THERE IS AN
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  85  71  84 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          68  86  69  84 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            65  86  68  85 /  10  10  10  20
MCALLEN              68  87  69  86 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      70  89  68  87 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  85  73  81 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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