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000
FXUS64 KBRO 221136 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
536 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE MORNING
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS SITES THEN BECOMING ISOLATED INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN TEXAS APPROACHES AND
MOVES OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM. BEST TIMING OF THE LINE OF STORM IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
IS BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM AND MAY LINGER NEAR THE COAST UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. TAFS TO CONSIST OF VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION WITH MVFR TO IFR WITHIN THE CONVECTION. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS AT 3000 FEET THIS MORNING TO
PARTIALLY MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT A SOUTH WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 32 KNOTS AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE OFFING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY
INTO THE EVENING. POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BEGINNING TO PICK UP
FORWARD MOMENTUM AS IT DIVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF
THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND EAST OF
THE GULF COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH PLACES DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THE SOUTH SIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING OVER THE REGION. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED AS THIS JET APPROACHES AND MOVES
OVERHEAD. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AT ALL LEVELS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET/SOUTHEASTERLIES STRENGTHENING/AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET
SEEN STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING WITH BOTH
THE LOW LEVEL SE AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW. MOISTURE, LIFT
ARE IN PLACE NOW WE NEED THE INSTABILITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 700MB DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED PRIOR TO MAIN IMPACT
OF THE JET DYNAMICS AND MAY INITIALLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE RGV THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INHIBITING FACTOR MAY BE TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO OVER COME THE LIMITING CAPPING INVERSION.
LOOKING AT ALL FACTORS BELIEVE THERE STILL WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS OR A LINE OF STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START OFF THE DAY
WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION TAKES HOLD. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY BREAK ENOUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR BIT MORE SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 80S. AS FOR THE WIND STILL EXPECTING A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 35KNOTS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO MIX COMPLETELY WITH CLOUDS AND
LIMITED HEATING KEEPING THE FULL WIND POTENTIAL FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE. SO NO WIND ADVISORY BUT SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE LOOKING
WESTWARD AS THUNDERSTORMS GETTING GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
THE HILL COUNTRY. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING OUR CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSITION INTO
A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF SORTS AS THE DIVERGENT FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. TIMING OF
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA IS 6 PM TO 10 PM
AND IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST
POTENTIAL. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS /50-60 MPH/EITHER
WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS ALONG THE LINE OR ALL ALONG THE LINE AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY EASTWARD.

AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SUNDAY...IF SQUALL LINE TIMING REMAINS IN PLACE
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SHORTLY BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS
TAKE OVER AND BEGIN DRYING OUT AND STABLIZING THE LOW LAYERS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO RESULT OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET PLEASANT AND
WARM WITH A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW AND FULL SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY/...ON THE WHOLE A CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEEK FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH IS A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE FROM THE RECENT FLIP-FLOP PATTERN FROM SUMMER TO WINTER AND
BACK AGAIN. DEEP DRY AIR RESIDENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
NORTHERN MEXICO...AIDED BY PERSISTENT 500 MB RIDGING IN THIS AREA
WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW NUDGING THE MASS OF DRY AIR
ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTTOM LINE? A GREAT WEEK
TO ENJOY THE REGION FOR THOSE PLANNING VISITS FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND TRAVEL PERIOD.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM TO HOT SUNDAY
WILL RECEDE TO FAIRLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY /50S TO NEAR 60/. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT ON THE ARRIVAL
OF COOLING NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE END RESULT IS A SEASONABLE DAY
WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH MID DAY BUT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
SLIGHTLY BREEZY MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

WINDS SLACKEN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS WAVE
WHICH ARRIVES AND DIVES THROUGH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS MOST OF THE NIGHT EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE
NOVEMBER AVERAGES. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE
COAST AT DAYBREAK AS ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO BRING MOISTURE BACK BELOW
700 MB BUT FOR NOW HAVE SKY COVER AS PARTLY CLOUDY.

AS FOR TUESDAY...GFS AND ECWMF IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND MOVEMENT OF THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE. THE TAKEWAY IS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COOLING...WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS DIPPING TO
546-552 DM FROM THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH THE RGV BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND 850 TEMPERATURES SLIPPING TOWARD 4-6C
IN THE SAME AREA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE DECK...SOME WHICH WILL TRANSLATE DOWN
TOWARD THE SURFACE AND COULD PRODUCE BREEZIER CONDITIONS THAT
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY MODEL BLENDS. FOR NOW...HAVE SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WOULD NOT
SURPRISE TO SEE THESE VALUES RAMPED UP TOWARD 15-20 KNOTS ON LAND
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS...SUNSHINE
DOMINATES BY AFTERNOON AND WITHOUT A POLAR FEED EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TRIM BACK BELOW AVERAGE BUT STILL ACHIEVE THE
LOWER 70S VALLEY AND AROUND 70 RANCHLANDS...A NICE DAY ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE ARRIVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WINDS SHOULD LAY DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A CLEAR BUT CHILLY
MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THIS POINT
/UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVERALL/. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
TEXAS AS STRONG BUT PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...ABOUT AS
GOOD A TRAVEL DAY AS ONE CAN EXPECT. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS
FANTASTIC AS WELL AND A SHADE WARMER AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH
TO ENJOY.

ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS CYCLE HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEADING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...75 TO
80 OVERALL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EVEN WHERE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
FORM UP.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY WITH MARGINAL CONDITIONS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE. STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN TEXAS TO KEEP A STRONG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BUT COOLER BAY WATERS TO LIMIT THE WIND
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAGUNA. GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN LATE
TODAY BUT RESIDUAL SEAS TO REMAIN HIGH. EXPECTING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND 9 PM AND RACING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS EXITING THE REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
STEADILY LOWERING SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS...15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF QUIETING MONDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SHOT...FRONT NUMBER TWO...OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS
REACHING 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

AS QUICKLY AS WINDS AND SEAS RISE THEY`LL BE DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP QUITE
NICELY FOR THOSE PLANNING PRE-THANKSGIVING BOATING/FISHING TRIPS
INTO THE BAY OR GULF. STILL A HINT OF 5 FOOT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY...BUT INSHORE/NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD BE DELIGHTFUL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  64  82  59 /  30  60   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          80  64  84  59 /  30  60   0   0
HARLINGEN            81  62  84  58 /  30  60   0   0
MCALLEN              82  62  86  58 /  20  40   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  59  87  57 /  30  50   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  67  79  64 /  30  60   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...SHORT TERM/AVIATION
52...LONG TERM








000
FXUS64 KBRO 221136 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
536 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE MORNING
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS SITES THEN BECOMING ISOLATED INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN TEXAS APPROACHES AND
MOVES OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM. BEST TIMING OF THE LINE OF STORM IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
IS BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM AND MAY LINGER NEAR THE COAST UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. TAFS TO CONSIST OF VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION WITH MVFR TO IFR WITHIN THE CONVECTION. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS AT 3000 FEET THIS MORNING TO
PARTIALLY MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT A SOUTH WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 32 KNOTS AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE OFFING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY
INTO THE EVENING. POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BEGINNING TO PICK UP
FORWARD MOMENTUM AS IT DIVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF
THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND EAST OF
THE GULF COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH PLACES DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THE SOUTH SIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING OVER THE REGION. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED AS THIS JET APPROACHES AND MOVES
OVERHEAD. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AT ALL LEVELS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET/SOUTHEASTERLIES STRENGTHENING/AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET
SEEN STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING WITH BOTH
THE LOW LEVEL SE AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW. MOISTURE, LIFT
ARE IN PLACE NOW WE NEED THE INSTABILITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 700MB DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED PRIOR TO MAIN IMPACT
OF THE JET DYNAMICS AND MAY INITIALLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE RGV THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INHIBITING FACTOR MAY BE TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO OVER COME THE LIMITING CAPPING INVERSION.
LOOKING AT ALL FACTORS BELIEVE THERE STILL WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS OR A LINE OF STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START OFF THE DAY
WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION TAKES HOLD. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY BREAK ENOUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR BIT MORE SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 80S. AS FOR THE WIND STILL EXPECTING A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 35KNOTS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO MIX COMPLETELY WITH CLOUDS AND
LIMITED HEATING KEEPING THE FULL WIND POTENTIAL FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE. SO NO WIND ADVISORY BUT SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE LOOKING
WESTWARD AS THUNDERSTORMS GETTING GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
THE HILL COUNTRY. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING OUR CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSITION INTO
A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF SORTS AS THE DIVERGENT FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. TIMING OF
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA IS 6 PM TO 10 PM
AND IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST
POTENTIAL. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS /50-60 MPH/EITHER
WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS ALONG THE LINE OR ALL ALONG THE LINE AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY EASTWARD.

AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SUNDAY...IF SQUALL LINE TIMING REMAINS IN PLACE
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SHORTLY BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS
TAKE OVER AND BEGIN DRYING OUT AND STABLIZING THE LOW LAYERS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO RESULT OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET PLEASANT AND
WARM WITH A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW AND FULL SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY/...ON THE WHOLE A CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEEK FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH IS A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE FROM THE RECENT FLIP-FLOP PATTERN FROM SUMMER TO WINTER AND
BACK AGAIN. DEEP DRY AIR RESIDENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
NORTHERN MEXICO...AIDED BY PERSISTENT 500 MB RIDGING IN THIS AREA
WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW NUDGING THE MASS OF DRY AIR
ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTTOM LINE? A GREAT WEEK
TO ENJOY THE REGION FOR THOSE PLANNING VISITS FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND TRAVEL PERIOD.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM TO HOT SUNDAY
WILL RECEDE TO FAIRLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY /50S TO NEAR 60/. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT ON THE ARRIVAL
OF COOLING NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE END RESULT IS A SEASONABLE DAY
WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH MID DAY BUT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
SLIGHTLY BREEZY MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

WINDS SLACKEN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS WAVE
WHICH ARRIVES AND DIVES THROUGH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS MOST OF THE NIGHT EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE
NOVEMBER AVERAGES. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE
COAST AT DAYBREAK AS ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO BRING MOISTURE BACK BELOW
700 MB BUT FOR NOW HAVE SKY COVER AS PARTLY CLOUDY.

AS FOR TUESDAY...GFS AND ECWMF IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND MOVEMENT OF THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE. THE TAKEWAY IS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COOLING...WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS DIPPING TO
546-552 DM FROM THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH THE RGV BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND 850 TEMPERATURES SLIPPING TOWARD 4-6C
IN THE SAME AREA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE DECK...SOME WHICH WILL TRANSLATE DOWN
TOWARD THE SURFACE AND COULD PRODUCE BREEZIER CONDITIONS THAT
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY MODEL BLENDS. FOR NOW...HAVE SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WOULD NOT
SURPRISE TO SEE THESE VALUES RAMPED UP TOWARD 15-20 KNOTS ON LAND
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS...SUNSHINE
DOMINATES BY AFTERNOON AND WITHOUT A POLAR FEED EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TRIM BACK BELOW AVERAGE BUT STILL ACHIEVE THE
LOWER 70S VALLEY AND AROUND 70 RANCHLANDS...A NICE DAY ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE ARRIVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WINDS SHOULD LAY DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A CLEAR BUT CHILLY
MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THIS POINT
/UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVERALL/. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
TEXAS AS STRONG BUT PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...ABOUT AS
GOOD A TRAVEL DAY AS ONE CAN EXPECT. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS
FANTASTIC AS WELL AND A SHADE WARMER AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH
TO ENJOY.

ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS CYCLE HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEADING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...75 TO
80 OVERALL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EVEN WHERE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
FORM UP.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY WITH MARGINAL CONDITIONS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE. STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN TEXAS TO KEEP A STRONG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BUT COOLER BAY WATERS TO LIMIT THE WIND
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAGUNA. GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN LATE
TODAY BUT RESIDUAL SEAS TO REMAIN HIGH. EXPECTING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND 9 PM AND RACING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS EXITING THE REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
STEADILY LOWERING SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS...15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF QUIETING MONDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SHOT...FRONT NUMBER TWO...OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS
REACHING 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

AS QUICKLY AS WINDS AND SEAS RISE THEY`LL BE DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP QUITE
NICELY FOR THOSE PLANNING PRE-THANKSGIVING BOATING/FISHING TRIPS
INTO THE BAY OR GULF. STILL A HINT OF 5 FOOT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY...BUT INSHORE/NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD BE DELIGHTFUL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  64  82  59 /  30  60   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          80  64  84  59 /  30  60   0   0
HARLINGEN            81  62  84  58 /  30  60   0   0
MCALLEN              82  62  86  58 /  20  40   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  59  87  57 /  30  50   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  67  79  64 /  30  60   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...SHORT TERM/AVIATION
52...LONG TERM









000
FXUS64 KBRO 221008
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
408 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE OFFING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY
INTO THE EVENING. POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BEGINNING TO PICK UP
FORWARD MOMENTUM AS IT DIVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF
THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND EAST OF
THE GULF COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH PLACES DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THE SOUTH SIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING OVER THE REGION. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED AS THIS JET APPROACHES AND MOVES
OVERHEAD. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AT ALL LEVELS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET/SOUTHEASTERLIES STRENGTHENING/AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET
SEEN STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING WITH BOTH
THE LOW LEVEL SE AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW. MOISTURE, LIFT
ARE IN PLACE NOW WE NEED THE INSTABILITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 700MB DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED PRIOR TO MAIN IMPACT
OF THE JET DYNAMICS AND MAY INITIALLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE RGV THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INHIBITING FACTOR MAY BE TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO OVER COME THE LIMITING CAPPING INVERSION.
LOOKING AT ALL FACTORS BELIEVE THERE STILL WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS OR A LINE OF STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START OFF THE DAY
WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION TAKES HOLD. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY BREAK ENOUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR BIT MORE SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 80S. AS FOR THE WIND STILL EXPECTING A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 35KNOTS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO MIX COMPLETELY WITH CLOUDS AND
LIMITED HEATING KEEPING THE FULL WIND POTENTIAL FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE. SO NO WIND ADVISORY BUT SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE LOOKING
WESTWARD AS THUNDERSTORMS GETTING GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
THE HILL COUNTRY. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING OUR CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSITION INTO
A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF SORTS AS THE DIVERGENT FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. TIMING OF
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA IS 6 PM TO 10 PM
AND IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST
POTENTIAL. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS /50-60 MPH/EITHER
WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS ALONG THE LINE OR ALL ALONG THE LINE AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY EASTWARD.

AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SUNDAY...IF SQUALL LINE TIMING REMAINS IN PLACE
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SHORTLY BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS
TAKE OVER AND BEGIN DRYING OUT AND STABLIZING THE LOW LAYERS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO RESULT OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET PLEASANT AND
WARM WITH A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW AND FULL SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY/...ON THE WHOLE A CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEEK FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH IS A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE FROM THE RECENT FLIP-FLOP PATTERN FROM SUMMER TO WINTER AND
BACK AGAIN. DEEP DRY AIR RESIDENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
NORTHERN MEXICO...AIDED BY PERSISTENT 500 MB RIDGING IN THIS AREA
WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW NUDGING THE MASS OF DRY AIR
ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTTOM LINE? A GREAT WEEK
TO ENJOY THE REGION FOR THOSE PLANNING VISITS FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND TRAVEL PERIOD.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM TO HOT SUNDAY
WILL RECEDE TO FAIRLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY /50S TO NEAR 60/. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT ON THE ARRIVAL
OF COOLING NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE END RESULT IS A SEASONABLE DAY
WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH MID DAY BUT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
SLIGHTLY BREEZY MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

WINDS SLACKEN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS WAVE
WHICH ARRIVES AND DIVES THROUGH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS MOST OF THE NIGHT EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE
NOVEMBER AVERAGES. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE
COAST AT DAYBREAK AS ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO BRING MOISTURE BACK BELOW
700 MB BUT FOR NOW HAVE SKY COVER AS PARTLY CLOUDY.

AS FOR TUESDAY...GFS AND ECWMF IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND MOVEMENT OF THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE. THE TAKEWAY IS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COOLING...WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS DIPPING TO
546-552 DM FROM THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH THE RGV BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND 850 TEMPERATURES SLIPPING TOWARD 4-6C
IN THE SAME AREA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE DECK...SOME WHICH WILL TRANSLATE DOWN
TOWARD THE SURFACE AND COULD PRODUCE BREEZIER CONDITIONS THAT
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY MODEL BLENDS. FOR NOW...HAVE SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WOULD NOT
SURPRISE TO SEE THESE VALUES RAMPED UP TOWARD 15-20 KNOTS ON LAND
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS...SUNSHINE
DOMINATES BY AFTERNOON AND WITHOUT A POLAR FEED EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TRIM BACK BELOW AVERAGE BUT STILL ACHIEVE THE
LOWER 70S VALLEY AND AROUND 70 RANCHLANDS...A NICE DAY ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE ARRIVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WINDS SHOULD LAY DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A CLEAR BUT CHILLY
MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THIS POINT
/UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVERALL/. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
TEXAS AS STRONG BUT PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...ABOUT AS
GOOD A TRAVEL DAY AS ONE CAN EXPECT. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS
FANTASTIC AS WELL AND A SHADE WARMER AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH
TO ENJOY.

ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS CYCLE HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEADING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...75 TO
80 OVERALL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EVEN WHERE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
FORM UP.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY WITH MARGINAL CONDITIONS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE. STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN TEXAS TO KEEP A STRONG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BUT COOLER BAY WATERS TO LIMIT THE WIND
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAGUNA. GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN LATE
TODAY BUT RESIDUAL SEAS TO REMAIN HIGH. EXPECTING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND 9 PM AND RACING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS EXITING THE REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
STEADILY LOWERING SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS...15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF QUIETING MONDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SHOT...FRONT NUMBER TWO...OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS
REACHING 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

AS QUICKLY AS WINDS AND SEAS RISE THEY`LL BE DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP QUITE
NICELY FOR THOSE PLANNING PRE-THANKSGIVING BOATING/FISHING TRIPS
INTO THE BAY OR GULF. STILL A HINT OF 5 FOOT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY...BUT INSHORE/NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD BE DELIGHTFUL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  64  82  59 /  30  60   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          80  64  84  59 /  30  60   0   0
HARLINGEN            81  62  84  58 /  30  60   0   0
MCALLEN              82  62  86  58 /  20  40   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  59  87  57 /  30  50   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  67  79  64 /  30  60   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...59/GB
LONG TERM...52/BSG
MARINE...59/52
GRAPHICASTS...CAMPBELL






000
FXUS64 KBRO 221008
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
408 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE OFFING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY
INTO THE EVENING. POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BEGINNING TO PICK UP
FORWARD MOMENTUM AS IT DIVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF
THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND EAST OF
THE GULF COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH PLACES DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THE SOUTH SIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING OVER THE REGION. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED AS THIS JET APPROACHES AND MOVES
OVERHEAD. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AT ALL LEVELS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET/SOUTHEASTERLIES STRENGTHENING/AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET
SEEN STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING WITH BOTH
THE LOW LEVEL SE AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW. MOISTURE, LIFT
ARE IN PLACE NOW WE NEED THE INSTABILITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 700MB DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED PRIOR TO MAIN IMPACT
OF THE JET DYNAMICS AND MAY INITIALLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE RGV THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INHIBITING FACTOR MAY BE TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO OVER COME THE LIMITING CAPPING INVERSION.
LOOKING AT ALL FACTORS BELIEVE THERE STILL WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS OR A LINE OF STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START OFF THE DAY
WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION TAKES HOLD. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY BREAK ENOUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR BIT MORE SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 80S. AS FOR THE WIND STILL EXPECTING A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 35KNOTS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO MIX COMPLETELY WITH CLOUDS AND
LIMITED HEATING KEEPING THE FULL WIND POTENTIAL FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE. SO NO WIND ADVISORY BUT SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE LOOKING
WESTWARD AS THUNDERSTORMS GETTING GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
THE HILL COUNTRY. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING OUR CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSITION INTO
A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF SORTS AS THE DIVERGENT FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. TIMING OF
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA IS 6 PM TO 10 PM
AND IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST
POTENTIAL. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS /50-60 MPH/EITHER
WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS ALONG THE LINE OR ALL ALONG THE LINE AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY EASTWARD.

AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SUNDAY...IF SQUALL LINE TIMING REMAINS IN PLACE
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SHORTLY BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS
TAKE OVER AND BEGIN DRYING OUT AND STABLIZING THE LOW LAYERS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO RESULT OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET PLEASANT AND
WARM WITH A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW AND FULL SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY/...ON THE WHOLE A CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEEK FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH IS A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE FROM THE RECENT FLIP-FLOP PATTERN FROM SUMMER TO WINTER AND
BACK AGAIN. DEEP DRY AIR RESIDENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
NORTHERN MEXICO...AIDED BY PERSISTENT 500 MB RIDGING IN THIS AREA
WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW NUDGING THE MASS OF DRY AIR
ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTTOM LINE? A GREAT WEEK
TO ENJOY THE REGION FOR THOSE PLANNING VISITS FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND TRAVEL PERIOD.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM TO HOT SUNDAY
WILL RECEDE TO FAIRLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY /50S TO NEAR 60/. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT ON THE ARRIVAL
OF COOLING NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE END RESULT IS A SEASONABLE DAY
WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH MID DAY BUT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
SLIGHTLY BREEZY MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

WINDS SLACKEN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS WAVE
WHICH ARRIVES AND DIVES THROUGH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS MOST OF THE NIGHT EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE
NOVEMBER AVERAGES. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE
COAST AT DAYBREAK AS ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO BRING MOISTURE BACK BELOW
700 MB BUT FOR NOW HAVE SKY COVER AS PARTLY CLOUDY.

AS FOR TUESDAY...GFS AND ECWMF IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND MOVEMENT OF THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE. THE TAKEWAY IS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COOLING...WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS DIPPING TO
546-552 DM FROM THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH THE RGV BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND 850 TEMPERATURES SLIPPING TOWARD 4-6C
IN THE SAME AREA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE DECK...SOME WHICH WILL TRANSLATE DOWN
TOWARD THE SURFACE AND COULD PRODUCE BREEZIER CONDITIONS THAT
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY MODEL BLENDS. FOR NOW...HAVE SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WOULD NOT
SURPRISE TO SEE THESE VALUES RAMPED UP TOWARD 15-20 KNOTS ON LAND
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS...SUNSHINE
DOMINATES BY AFTERNOON AND WITHOUT A POLAR FEED EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TRIM BACK BELOW AVERAGE BUT STILL ACHIEVE THE
LOWER 70S VALLEY AND AROUND 70 RANCHLANDS...A NICE DAY ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE ARRIVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WINDS SHOULD LAY DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A CLEAR BUT CHILLY
MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THIS POINT
/UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVERALL/. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
TEXAS AS STRONG BUT PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...ABOUT AS
GOOD A TRAVEL DAY AS ONE CAN EXPECT. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS
FANTASTIC AS WELL AND A SHADE WARMER AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH
TO ENJOY.

ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS CYCLE HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEADING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...75 TO
80 OVERALL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EVEN WHERE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
FORM UP.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY WITH MARGINAL CONDITIONS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE. STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN TEXAS TO KEEP A STRONG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BUT COOLER BAY WATERS TO LIMIT THE WIND
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAGUNA. GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN LATE
TODAY BUT RESIDUAL SEAS TO REMAIN HIGH. EXPECTING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND 9 PM AND RACING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS EXITING THE REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
STEADILY LOWERING SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS...15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF QUIETING MONDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SHOT...FRONT NUMBER TWO...OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS
REACHING 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

AS QUICKLY AS WINDS AND SEAS RISE THEY`LL BE DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP QUITE
NICELY FOR THOSE PLANNING PRE-THANKSGIVING BOATING/FISHING TRIPS
INTO THE BAY OR GULF. STILL A HINT OF 5 FOOT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY...BUT INSHORE/NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD BE DELIGHTFUL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  64  82  59 /  30  60   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          80  64  84  59 /  30  60   0   0
HARLINGEN            81  62  84  58 /  30  60   0   0
MCALLEN              82  62  86  58 /  20  40   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  59  87  57 /  30  50   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  67  79  64 /  30  60   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...59/GB
LONG TERM...52/BSG
MARINE...59/52
GRAPHICASTS...CAMPBELL







000
FXUS64 KBRO 221008
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
408 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE OFFING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY
INTO THE EVENING. POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BEGINNING TO PICK UP
FORWARD MOMENTUM AS IT DIVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF
THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND EAST OF
THE GULF COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH PLACES DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THE SOUTH SIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING OVER THE REGION. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED AS THIS JET APPROACHES AND MOVES
OVERHEAD. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AT ALL LEVELS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET/SOUTHEASTERLIES STRENGTHENING/AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET
SEEN STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING WITH BOTH
THE LOW LEVEL SE AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW. MOISTURE, LIFT
ARE IN PLACE NOW WE NEED THE INSTABILITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 700MB DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED PRIOR TO MAIN IMPACT
OF THE JET DYNAMICS AND MAY INITIALLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE RGV THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INHIBITING FACTOR MAY BE TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO OVER COME THE LIMITING CAPPING INVERSION.
LOOKING AT ALL FACTORS BELIEVE THERE STILL WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS OR A LINE OF STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START OFF THE DAY
WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION TAKES HOLD. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY BREAK ENOUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR BIT MORE SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 80S. AS FOR THE WIND STILL EXPECTING A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 35KNOTS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO MIX COMPLETELY WITH CLOUDS AND
LIMITED HEATING KEEPING THE FULL WIND POTENTIAL FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE. SO NO WIND ADVISORY BUT SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE LOOKING
WESTWARD AS THUNDERSTORMS GETTING GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
THE HILL COUNTRY. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING OUR CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSITION INTO
A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF SORTS AS THE DIVERGENT FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. TIMING OF
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA IS 6 PM TO 10 PM
AND IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST
POTENTIAL. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS /50-60 MPH/EITHER
WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS ALONG THE LINE OR ALL ALONG THE LINE AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY EASTWARD.

AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SUNDAY...IF SQUALL LINE TIMING REMAINS IN PLACE
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SHORTLY BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS
TAKE OVER AND BEGIN DRYING OUT AND STABLIZING THE LOW LAYERS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO RESULT OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET PLEASANT AND
WARM WITH A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW AND FULL SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY/...ON THE WHOLE A CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEEK FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH IS A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE FROM THE RECENT FLIP-FLOP PATTERN FROM SUMMER TO WINTER AND
BACK AGAIN. DEEP DRY AIR RESIDENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
NORTHERN MEXICO...AIDED BY PERSISTENT 500 MB RIDGING IN THIS AREA
WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW NUDGING THE MASS OF DRY AIR
ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTTOM LINE? A GREAT WEEK
TO ENJOY THE REGION FOR THOSE PLANNING VISITS FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND TRAVEL PERIOD.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM TO HOT SUNDAY
WILL RECEDE TO FAIRLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY /50S TO NEAR 60/. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT ON THE ARRIVAL
OF COOLING NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE END RESULT IS A SEASONABLE DAY
WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH MID DAY BUT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
SLIGHTLY BREEZY MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

WINDS SLACKEN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS WAVE
WHICH ARRIVES AND DIVES THROUGH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS MOST OF THE NIGHT EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE
NOVEMBER AVERAGES. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE
COAST AT DAYBREAK AS ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO BRING MOISTURE BACK BELOW
700 MB BUT FOR NOW HAVE SKY COVER AS PARTLY CLOUDY.

AS FOR TUESDAY...GFS AND ECWMF IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND MOVEMENT OF THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE. THE TAKEWAY IS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COOLING...WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS DIPPING TO
546-552 DM FROM THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH THE RGV BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND 850 TEMPERATURES SLIPPING TOWARD 4-6C
IN THE SAME AREA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE DECK...SOME WHICH WILL TRANSLATE DOWN
TOWARD THE SURFACE AND COULD PRODUCE BREEZIER CONDITIONS THAT
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY MODEL BLENDS. FOR NOW...HAVE SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WOULD NOT
SURPRISE TO SEE THESE VALUES RAMPED UP TOWARD 15-20 KNOTS ON LAND
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS...SUNSHINE
DOMINATES BY AFTERNOON AND WITHOUT A POLAR FEED EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TRIM BACK BELOW AVERAGE BUT STILL ACHIEVE THE
LOWER 70S VALLEY AND AROUND 70 RANCHLANDS...A NICE DAY ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE ARRIVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WINDS SHOULD LAY DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A CLEAR BUT CHILLY
MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THIS POINT
/UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVERALL/. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
TEXAS AS STRONG BUT PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...ABOUT AS
GOOD A TRAVEL DAY AS ONE CAN EXPECT. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS
FANTASTIC AS WELL AND A SHADE WARMER AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH
TO ENJOY.

ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS CYCLE HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEADING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...75 TO
80 OVERALL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EVEN WHERE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
FORM UP.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY WITH MARGINAL CONDITIONS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE. STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN TEXAS TO KEEP A STRONG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BUT COOLER BAY WATERS TO LIMIT THE WIND
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAGUNA. GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN LATE
TODAY BUT RESIDUAL SEAS TO REMAIN HIGH. EXPECTING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND 9 PM AND RACING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS EXITING THE REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
STEADILY LOWERING SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS...15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF QUIETING MONDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SHOT...FRONT NUMBER TWO...OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS
REACHING 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

AS QUICKLY AS WINDS AND SEAS RISE THEY`LL BE DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP QUITE
NICELY FOR THOSE PLANNING PRE-THANKSGIVING BOATING/FISHING TRIPS
INTO THE BAY OR GULF. STILL A HINT OF 5 FOOT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY...BUT INSHORE/NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD BE DELIGHTFUL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  64  82  59 /  30  60   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          80  64  84  59 /  30  60   0   0
HARLINGEN            81  62  84  58 /  30  60   0   0
MCALLEN              82  62  86  58 /  20  40   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  59  87  57 /  30  50   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  67  79  64 /  30  60   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...59/GB
LONG TERM...52/BSG
MARINE...59/52
GRAPHICASTS...CAMPBELL






000
FXUS64 KBRO 221008
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
408 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE OFFING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY
INTO THE EVENING. POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BEGINNING TO PICK UP
FORWARD MOMENTUM AS IT DIVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF
THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND EAST OF
THE GULF COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH PLACES DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THE SOUTH SIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING OVER THE REGION. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED AS THIS JET APPROACHES AND MOVES
OVERHEAD. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AT ALL LEVELS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET/SOUTHEASTERLIES STRENGTHENING/AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET
SEEN STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING WITH BOTH
THE LOW LEVEL SE AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW. MOISTURE, LIFT
ARE IN PLACE NOW WE NEED THE INSTABILITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 700MB DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED PRIOR TO MAIN IMPACT
OF THE JET DYNAMICS AND MAY INITIALLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE RGV THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INHIBITING FACTOR MAY BE TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO OVER COME THE LIMITING CAPPING INVERSION.
LOOKING AT ALL FACTORS BELIEVE THERE STILL WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS OR A LINE OF STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START OFF THE DAY
WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION TAKES HOLD. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY BREAK ENOUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR BIT MORE SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 80S. AS FOR THE WIND STILL EXPECTING A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 35KNOTS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO MIX COMPLETELY WITH CLOUDS AND
LIMITED HEATING KEEPING THE FULL WIND POTENTIAL FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE. SO NO WIND ADVISORY BUT SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE LOOKING
WESTWARD AS THUNDERSTORMS GETTING GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
THE HILL COUNTRY. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING OUR CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSITION INTO
A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF SORTS AS THE DIVERGENT FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. TIMING OF
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA IS 6 PM TO 10 PM
AND IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST
POTENTIAL. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS /50-60 MPH/EITHER
WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS ALONG THE LINE OR ALL ALONG THE LINE AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY EASTWARD.

AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SUNDAY...IF SQUALL LINE TIMING REMAINS IN PLACE
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SHORTLY BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS
TAKE OVER AND BEGIN DRYING OUT AND STABLIZING THE LOW LAYERS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO RESULT OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET PLEASANT AND
WARM WITH A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW AND FULL SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY/...ON THE WHOLE A CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEEK FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH IS A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE FROM THE RECENT FLIP-FLOP PATTERN FROM SUMMER TO WINTER AND
BACK AGAIN. DEEP DRY AIR RESIDENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
NORTHERN MEXICO...AIDED BY PERSISTENT 500 MB RIDGING IN THIS AREA
WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW NUDGING THE MASS OF DRY AIR
ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTTOM LINE? A GREAT WEEK
TO ENJOY THE REGION FOR THOSE PLANNING VISITS FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND TRAVEL PERIOD.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM TO HOT SUNDAY
WILL RECEDE TO FAIRLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY /50S TO NEAR 60/. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT ON THE ARRIVAL
OF COOLING NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE END RESULT IS A SEASONABLE DAY
WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH MID DAY BUT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
SLIGHTLY BREEZY MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

WINDS SLACKEN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS WAVE
WHICH ARRIVES AND DIVES THROUGH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS MOST OF THE NIGHT EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE
NOVEMBER AVERAGES. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE
COAST AT DAYBREAK AS ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO BRING MOISTURE BACK BELOW
700 MB BUT FOR NOW HAVE SKY COVER AS PARTLY CLOUDY.

AS FOR TUESDAY...GFS AND ECWMF IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND MOVEMENT OF THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE. THE TAKEWAY IS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COOLING...WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS DIPPING TO
546-552 DM FROM THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH THE RGV BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND 850 TEMPERATURES SLIPPING TOWARD 4-6C
IN THE SAME AREA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE DECK...SOME WHICH WILL TRANSLATE DOWN
TOWARD THE SURFACE AND COULD PRODUCE BREEZIER CONDITIONS THAT
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY MODEL BLENDS. FOR NOW...HAVE SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WOULD NOT
SURPRISE TO SEE THESE VALUES RAMPED UP TOWARD 15-20 KNOTS ON LAND
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS...SUNSHINE
DOMINATES BY AFTERNOON AND WITHOUT A POLAR FEED EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TRIM BACK BELOW AVERAGE BUT STILL ACHIEVE THE
LOWER 70S VALLEY AND AROUND 70 RANCHLANDS...A NICE DAY ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE ARRIVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WINDS SHOULD LAY DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A CLEAR BUT CHILLY
MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THIS POINT
/UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVERALL/. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
TEXAS AS STRONG BUT PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...ABOUT AS
GOOD A TRAVEL DAY AS ONE CAN EXPECT. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS
FANTASTIC AS WELL AND A SHADE WARMER AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH
TO ENJOY.

ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS CYCLE HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEADING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...75 TO
80 OVERALL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EVEN WHERE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
FORM UP.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY WITH MARGINAL CONDITIONS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE. STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN TEXAS TO KEEP A STRONG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BUT COOLER BAY WATERS TO LIMIT THE WIND
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAGUNA. GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN LATE
TODAY BUT RESIDUAL SEAS TO REMAIN HIGH. EXPECTING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND 9 PM AND RACING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS EXITING THE REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
STEADILY LOWERING SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS...15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF QUIETING MONDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SHOT...FRONT NUMBER TWO...OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS
REACHING 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

AS QUICKLY AS WINDS AND SEAS RISE THEY`LL BE DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP QUITE
NICELY FOR THOSE PLANNING PRE-THANKSGIVING BOATING/FISHING TRIPS
INTO THE BAY OR GULF. STILL A HINT OF 5 FOOT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY...BUT INSHORE/NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD BE DELIGHTFUL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  64  82  59 /  30  60   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          80  64  84  59 /  30  60   0   0
HARLINGEN            81  62  84  58 /  30  60   0   0
MCALLEN              82  62  86  58 /  20  40   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  59  87  57 /  30  50   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  67  79  64 /  30  60   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...59/GB
LONG TERM...52/BSG
MARINE...59/52
GRAPHICASTS...CAMPBELL







000
FXUS64 KBRO 220535 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1135 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT
STREAMING INTO THE CWA FROM MEXICO WHILE A SE FLOW CONTINUES TO
FEED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE TERMINALS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING BEGINNING AND SE WINDS INCREASING. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM
TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS. DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE BECOMING VERY STRONG AT TIMES WITH
SUSTAINED FLOW OF 20-25 KNOTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...AN INCREASED IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT
WITH MVFR GIGS THROUGH SUNRISE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY INCREASING THE SE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 30 TO 35 KNOTS BY 18Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IMPACTS...
WINDY SATURDAY...CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SAT PM.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD 70 TO 90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 250 MB FLOW IS
HELPING WORK WITH THIS TROUGH/LOW IN INCREASING THE LOW LAYER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY WITH 20 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF...PER BUOY AND ASCAT
OBSERVATION...AND 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH OVER LAND.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WITHIN LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES ARE ALSO
KEEPING A CLOUD LAYER AT AROUND 2000 TO 4000 FT WHICH IS SPARKING A
FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE DAY.

TONIGHT...
850/925MB PRESSURE GRADIENT PEAKS LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 35 TO 45 KNOT WINDS 3000 TO
5000 FT OFF THE SURFACE...WHICH TEND TO BE UNDERDONE IN STRONG UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ONE. COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER SURFACE WINDS...AROUND 15 MPH OR SO. WEAK WARM
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AREA WIDE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

SATURDAY...
WINDY AREA WIDE...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IN RANCHLANDS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MOST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE PEAK LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL SHIFT WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE HIGHWAY 77/281 CORRIDOR. GUSTS
OF 35 TO 40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 3 TO 4 PM BEFORE
THE MAIN TROUGH GETS CLOSER AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WEAK WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER IN PLACE BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S.

LESS CERTAIN IS THE THUNDERSTORM RISK.  STRONG DOWN SLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE EVIDENT IN THE 700MB LAYER THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
COMMONLY RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING IN THE
850/700MB LAYER OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS THESE WINDS COME DOWN OFF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND MEXICAN PLATEAU. 12Z GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS DRYING FAIRLY WELL WHILE THE NAM ONLY BRINGS THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS LAYER TO ABOUT THE RIO GRANDE BEFORE THE SIGNAL DIMINISHES. FEEL
CONFIDENT THIS LAYER WILL WIN OUT DURING THE DAYTIME IN THE RGV
METRO AREAS AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRIER. THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF
A JET MAXIMUM ARRIVING DURING THE DAY PROVIDES SOME DIVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHO WILL ALSO BE FURTHER FROM THE INFLUENCE
OF DOWNSLOPING...SO CARRIED HIGHER POPS IN NORTHERN JIM
HOGG/BROOKS/KENEDY COUNTIES WHERE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODEST
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREA WIDE...BEST CHANCES REMAIN OVER
THE BRUSH COUNTRY.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD
ERADICATE ANY RESIDUAL CAPPING. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO INITIATE
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH THE
TRAJECTORY SUPPORTING BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE HEBBRONVILLE AND
FALFURRIAS AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS WEAK AND A STRONGER 850MB WESTERLY WIND SHIFT IS MARKED
BY MUCH DRYER AND WARMER AIR THAT WILL QUICKLY QUASH ANY SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE NIGHT
HOWEVER WITH VALUES FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR LARGE SCALE STORM ORGANIZATION.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CONVECTION THAT INITIATES ON THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO THE AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. DURING THIS TIME A FAIR BALANCE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND STRONG SHEAR COULD WORK WITH CONVERGENCE/COLD POOLS GENERATED BY
CONVECTION TO KEEP A RELATIVELY STRONG COMPLEX MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA. SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE ALL NIGHT BUT IT APPEARS THE
SURFACE TO 850MB TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE GOING TO BE
SOMEWHAT  DISORGANIZED WITH STRONGLY ADVANCING WESTERLIES FROM 850MB
AIDING IN REDUCING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT ARRIVES. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME OF THE LATER THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WOULD GREATLY REDUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND. A BETTER CHANCE EXISTS OVER THE GULF
WATERS FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WIND WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE PLENTIFUL AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER LONGER. IN ALL IT
APPEARS THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
HIGHER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH DRY AIR TAKING
OVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE 80S...UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PROVIDE A WEAK DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO HELP PROP UP
TEMPS. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP LOW TEMPS RADIATE DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A MARITIME
POLAR AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA MID MONDAY...AND WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH A FEW
EXTRA CLOUDS IN THE AREA...BUT NOT MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE DEFINITIVELY TO MODERATE NORTHWEST...THOUGH A BIT
STRONGER OVER THE WATER...RESULTING IN ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS FOR
A FEW HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL MOVE OVER EAST TEXAS WITH LITTLE
IMPACT THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS
BEGINNING MONDAY AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS MARITIME POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 40S...BENEFITING
FROM CLEAR SKIES TO GET BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AND WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST WITH AN UPWARD
TREND IN DEW POINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. COASTAL SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE GULF WATERS OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT SATURDAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD BE MORE
MODERATE...AND SEAS MAY FALL BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MDT NORTH MONDAY MORNING AS
A MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ARRIVES FROM UPSTREAM. A FEW
HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL AGAIN PUSH NORTH WINDS TOWARD 20 KTS
AND LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO SIX OR SEVEN FEET TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST AS THE UPSTREAM
RIDGING SHIFTS EAST...AND PUSHES HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF IT OUT
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  82  66  81 /  20  30  40   0
BROWNSVILLE          72  83  66  83 /  20  20  40   0
HARLINGEN            71  84  64  83 /  20  20  40   0
MCALLEN              70  86  62  85 /  20  10  40   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  87  59  86 /  20  20  40   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  78  68  79 /  30  30  50   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67...AVIATIOIN
59...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KBRO 220535 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1135 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT
STREAMING INTO THE CWA FROM MEXICO WHILE A SE FLOW CONTINUES TO
FEED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE TERMINALS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING BEGINNING AND SE WINDS INCREASING. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM
TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS. DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE BECOMING VERY STRONG AT TIMES WITH
SUSTAINED FLOW OF 20-25 KNOTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...AN INCREASED IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT
WITH MVFR GIGS THROUGH SUNRISE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY INCREASING THE SE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 30 TO 35 KNOTS BY 18Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IMPACTS...
WINDY SATURDAY...CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SAT PM.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD 70 TO 90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 250 MB FLOW IS
HELPING WORK WITH THIS TROUGH/LOW IN INCREASING THE LOW LAYER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY WITH 20 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF...PER BUOY AND ASCAT
OBSERVATION...AND 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH OVER LAND.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WITHIN LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES ARE ALSO
KEEPING A CLOUD LAYER AT AROUND 2000 TO 4000 FT WHICH IS SPARKING A
FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE DAY.

TONIGHT...
850/925MB PRESSURE GRADIENT PEAKS LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 35 TO 45 KNOT WINDS 3000 TO
5000 FT OFF THE SURFACE...WHICH TEND TO BE UNDERDONE IN STRONG UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ONE. COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER SURFACE WINDS...AROUND 15 MPH OR SO. WEAK WARM
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AREA WIDE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

SATURDAY...
WINDY AREA WIDE...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IN RANCHLANDS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MOST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE PEAK LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL SHIFT WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE HIGHWAY 77/281 CORRIDOR. GUSTS
OF 35 TO 40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 3 TO 4 PM BEFORE
THE MAIN TROUGH GETS CLOSER AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WEAK WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER IN PLACE BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S.

LESS CERTAIN IS THE THUNDERSTORM RISK.  STRONG DOWN SLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE EVIDENT IN THE 700MB LAYER THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
COMMONLY RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING IN THE
850/700MB LAYER OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS THESE WINDS COME DOWN OFF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND MEXICAN PLATEAU. 12Z GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS DRYING FAIRLY WELL WHILE THE NAM ONLY BRINGS THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS LAYER TO ABOUT THE RIO GRANDE BEFORE THE SIGNAL DIMINISHES. FEEL
CONFIDENT THIS LAYER WILL WIN OUT DURING THE DAYTIME IN THE RGV
METRO AREAS AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRIER. THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF
A JET MAXIMUM ARRIVING DURING THE DAY PROVIDES SOME DIVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHO WILL ALSO BE FURTHER FROM THE INFLUENCE
OF DOWNSLOPING...SO CARRIED HIGHER POPS IN NORTHERN JIM
HOGG/BROOKS/KENEDY COUNTIES WHERE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODEST
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREA WIDE...BEST CHANCES REMAIN OVER
THE BRUSH COUNTRY.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD
ERADICATE ANY RESIDUAL CAPPING. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO INITIATE
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH THE
TRAJECTORY SUPPORTING BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE HEBBRONVILLE AND
FALFURRIAS AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS WEAK AND A STRONGER 850MB WESTERLY WIND SHIFT IS MARKED
BY MUCH DRYER AND WARMER AIR THAT WILL QUICKLY QUASH ANY SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE NIGHT
HOWEVER WITH VALUES FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR LARGE SCALE STORM ORGANIZATION.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CONVECTION THAT INITIATES ON THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO THE AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. DURING THIS TIME A FAIR BALANCE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND STRONG SHEAR COULD WORK WITH CONVERGENCE/COLD POOLS GENERATED BY
CONVECTION TO KEEP A RELATIVELY STRONG COMPLEX MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA. SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE ALL NIGHT BUT IT APPEARS THE
SURFACE TO 850MB TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE GOING TO BE
SOMEWHAT  DISORGANIZED WITH STRONGLY ADVANCING WESTERLIES FROM 850MB
AIDING IN REDUCING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT ARRIVES. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME OF THE LATER THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WOULD GREATLY REDUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND. A BETTER CHANCE EXISTS OVER THE GULF
WATERS FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WIND WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE PLENTIFUL AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER LONGER. IN ALL IT
APPEARS THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
HIGHER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH DRY AIR TAKING
OVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE 80S...UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PROVIDE A WEAK DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO HELP PROP UP
TEMPS. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP LOW TEMPS RADIATE DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A MARITIME
POLAR AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA MID MONDAY...AND WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH A FEW
EXTRA CLOUDS IN THE AREA...BUT NOT MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE DEFINITIVELY TO MODERATE NORTHWEST...THOUGH A BIT
STRONGER OVER THE WATER...RESULTING IN ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS FOR
A FEW HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL MOVE OVER EAST TEXAS WITH LITTLE
IMPACT THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS
BEGINNING MONDAY AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS MARITIME POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 40S...BENEFITING
FROM CLEAR SKIES TO GET BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AND WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST WITH AN UPWARD
TREND IN DEW POINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. COASTAL SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE GULF WATERS OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT SATURDAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD BE MORE
MODERATE...AND SEAS MAY FALL BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MDT NORTH MONDAY MORNING AS
A MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ARRIVES FROM UPSTREAM. A FEW
HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL AGAIN PUSH NORTH WINDS TOWARD 20 KTS
AND LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO SIX OR SEVEN FEET TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST AS THE UPSTREAM
RIDGING SHIFTS EAST...AND PUSHES HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF IT OUT
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  82  66  81 /  20  30  40   0
BROWNSVILLE          72  83  66  83 /  20  20  40   0
HARLINGEN            71  84  64  83 /  20  20  40   0
MCALLEN              70  86  62  85 /  20  10  40   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  87  59  86 /  20  20  40   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  78  68  79 /  30  30  50   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67...AVIATIOIN
59...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KBRO 220002
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
602 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AN INCREASED IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT
WITH MVFR GIGS THROUGH SUNRISE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY INCREASING THE SE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 30 TO 35 KNOTS BY 18Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IMPACTS...
WINDY SATURDAY...CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SAT PM.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD 70 TO 90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 250 MB FLOW IS
HELPING WORK WITH THIS TROUGH/LOW IN INCREASING THE LOW LAYER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY WITH 20 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF...PER BUOY AND ASCAT
OBSERVATION...AND 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH OVER LAND.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WITHIN LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES ARE ALSO
KEEPING A CLOUD LAYER AT AROUND 2000 TO 4000 FT WHICH IS SPARKING A
FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE DAY.

TONIGHT...
850/925MB PRESSURE GRADIENT PEAKS LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 35 TO 45 KNOT WINDS 3000 TO
5000 FT OFF THE SURFACE...WHICH TEND TO BE UNDERDONE IN STRONG UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ONE. COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER SURFACE WINDS...AROUND 15 MPH OR SO. WEAK WARM
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AREA WIDE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

SATURDAY...
WINDY AREA WIDE...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IN RANCHLANDS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MOST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE PEAK LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL SHIFT WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE HIGHWAY 77/281 CORRIDOR. GUSTS
OF 35 TO 40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 3 TO 4 PM BEFORE
THE MAIN TROUGH GETS CLOSER AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WEAK WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER IN PLACE BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S.

LESS CERTAIN IS THE THUNDERSTORM RISK.  STRONG DOWN SLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE EVIDENT IN THE 700MB LAYER THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
COMMONLY RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING IN THE
850/700MB LAYER OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS THESE WINDS COME DOWN OFF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND MEXICAN PLATEAU. 12Z GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS DRYING FAIRLY WELL WHILE THE NAM ONLY BRINGS THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS LAYER TO ABOUT THE RIO GRANDE BEFORE THE SIGNAL DIMINISHES. FEEL
CONFIDENT THIS LAYER WILL WIN OUT DURING THE DAYTIME IN THE RGV
METRO AREAS AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRIER. THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF
A JET MAXIMUM ARRIVING DURING THE DAY PROVIDES SOME DIVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHO WILL ALSO BE FURTHER FROM THE INFLUENCE
OF DOWNSLOPING...SO CARRIED HIGHER POPS IN NORTHERN JIM
HOGG/BROOKS/KENEDY COUNTIES WHERE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODEST
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREA WIDE...BEST CHANCES REMAIN OVER
THE BRUSH COUNTRY.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD
ERADICATE ANY RESIDUAL CAPPING. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO INITIATE
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH THE
TRAJECTORY SUPPORTING BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE HEBBRONVILLE AND
FALFURRIAS AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS WEAK AND A STRONGER 850MB WESTERLY WIND SHIFT IS MARKED
BY MUCH DRYER AND WARMER AIR THAT WILL QUICKLY QUASH ANY SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE NIGHT
HOWEVER WITH VALUES FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR LARGE SCALE STORM ORGANIZATION.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CONVECTION THAT INITIATES ON THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO THE AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. DURING THIS TIME A FAIR BALANCE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND STRONG SHEAR COULD WORK WITH CONVERGENCE/COLD POOLS GENERATED BY
CONVECTION TO KEEP A RELATIVELY STRONG COMPLEX MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA. SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE ALL NIGHT BUT IT APPEARS THE
SURFACE TO 850MB TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE GOING TO BE
SOMEWHAT  DISORGANIZED WITH STRONGLY ADVANCING WESTERLIES FROM 850MB
AIDING IN REDUCING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT ARRIVES. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME OF THE LATER THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WOULD GREATLY REDUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND. A BETTER CHANCE EXISTS OVER THE GULF
WATERS FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WIND WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE PLENTIFUL AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER LONGER. IN ALL IT
APPEARS THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
HIGHER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH DRY AIR TAKING
OVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE 80S...UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PROVIDE A WEAK DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO HELP PROP UP
TEMPS. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP LOW TEMPS RADIATE DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A MARITIME
POLAR AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA MID MONDAY...AND WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH A FEW
EXTRA CLOUDS IN THE AREA...BUT NOT MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE DEFINITIVELY TO MODERATE NORTHWEST...THOUGH A BIT
STRONGER OVER THE WATER...RESULTING IN ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS FOR
A FEW HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL MOVE OVER EAST TEXAS WITH LITTLE
IMPACT THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS
BEGINNING MONDAY AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS MARITIME POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 40S...BENEFITING
FROM CLEAR SKIES TO GET BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AND WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST WITH AN UPWARD
TREND IN DEW POINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. COASTAL SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE GULF WATERS OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT SATURDAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD BE MORE
MODERATE...AND SEAS MAY FALL BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MDT NORTH MONDAY MORNING AS
A MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ARRIVES FROM UPSTREAM. A FEW
HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL AGAIN PUSH NORTH WINDS TOWARD 20 KTS
AND LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO SIX OR SEVEN FEET TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST AS THE UPSTREAM
RIDGING SHIFTS EAST...AND PUSHES HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF IT OUT
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66







000
FXUS64 KBRO 220002
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
602 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AN INCREASED IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT
WITH MVFR GIGS THROUGH SUNRISE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY INCREASING THE SE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 30 TO 35 KNOTS BY 18Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IMPACTS...
WINDY SATURDAY...CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SAT PM.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD 70 TO 90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 250 MB FLOW IS
HELPING WORK WITH THIS TROUGH/LOW IN INCREASING THE LOW LAYER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY WITH 20 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF...PER BUOY AND ASCAT
OBSERVATION...AND 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH OVER LAND.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WITHIN LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES ARE ALSO
KEEPING A CLOUD LAYER AT AROUND 2000 TO 4000 FT WHICH IS SPARKING A
FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE DAY.

TONIGHT...
850/925MB PRESSURE GRADIENT PEAKS LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 35 TO 45 KNOT WINDS 3000 TO
5000 FT OFF THE SURFACE...WHICH TEND TO BE UNDERDONE IN STRONG UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ONE. COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER SURFACE WINDS...AROUND 15 MPH OR SO. WEAK WARM
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AREA WIDE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

SATURDAY...
WINDY AREA WIDE...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IN RANCHLANDS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MOST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE PEAK LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL SHIFT WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE HIGHWAY 77/281 CORRIDOR. GUSTS
OF 35 TO 40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 3 TO 4 PM BEFORE
THE MAIN TROUGH GETS CLOSER AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WEAK WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER IN PLACE BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S.

LESS CERTAIN IS THE THUNDERSTORM RISK.  STRONG DOWN SLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE EVIDENT IN THE 700MB LAYER THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
COMMONLY RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING IN THE
850/700MB LAYER OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS THESE WINDS COME DOWN OFF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND MEXICAN PLATEAU. 12Z GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS DRYING FAIRLY WELL WHILE THE NAM ONLY BRINGS THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS LAYER TO ABOUT THE RIO GRANDE BEFORE THE SIGNAL DIMINISHES. FEEL
CONFIDENT THIS LAYER WILL WIN OUT DURING THE DAYTIME IN THE RGV
METRO AREAS AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRIER. THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF
A JET MAXIMUM ARRIVING DURING THE DAY PROVIDES SOME DIVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHO WILL ALSO BE FURTHER FROM THE INFLUENCE
OF DOWNSLOPING...SO CARRIED HIGHER POPS IN NORTHERN JIM
HOGG/BROOKS/KENEDY COUNTIES WHERE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODEST
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREA WIDE...BEST CHANCES REMAIN OVER
THE BRUSH COUNTRY.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD
ERADICATE ANY RESIDUAL CAPPING. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO INITIATE
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH THE
TRAJECTORY SUPPORTING BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE HEBBRONVILLE AND
FALFURRIAS AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS WEAK AND A STRONGER 850MB WESTERLY WIND SHIFT IS MARKED
BY MUCH DRYER AND WARMER AIR THAT WILL QUICKLY QUASH ANY SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE NIGHT
HOWEVER WITH VALUES FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR LARGE SCALE STORM ORGANIZATION.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CONVECTION THAT INITIATES ON THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO THE AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. DURING THIS TIME A FAIR BALANCE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND STRONG SHEAR COULD WORK WITH CONVERGENCE/COLD POOLS GENERATED BY
CONVECTION TO KEEP A RELATIVELY STRONG COMPLEX MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA. SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE ALL NIGHT BUT IT APPEARS THE
SURFACE TO 850MB TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE GOING TO BE
SOMEWHAT  DISORGANIZED WITH STRONGLY ADVANCING WESTERLIES FROM 850MB
AIDING IN REDUCING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT ARRIVES. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME OF THE LATER THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WOULD GREATLY REDUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND. A BETTER CHANCE EXISTS OVER THE GULF
WATERS FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WIND WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE PLENTIFUL AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER LONGER. IN ALL IT
APPEARS THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
HIGHER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH DRY AIR TAKING
OVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE 80S...UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PROVIDE A WEAK DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO HELP PROP UP
TEMPS. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP LOW TEMPS RADIATE DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A MARITIME
POLAR AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA MID MONDAY...AND WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH A FEW
EXTRA CLOUDS IN THE AREA...BUT NOT MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE DEFINITIVELY TO MODERATE NORTHWEST...THOUGH A BIT
STRONGER OVER THE WATER...RESULTING IN ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS FOR
A FEW HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL MOVE OVER EAST TEXAS WITH LITTLE
IMPACT THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS
BEGINNING MONDAY AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS MARITIME POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 40S...BENEFITING
FROM CLEAR SKIES TO GET BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AND WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST WITH AN UPWARD
TREND IN DEW POINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. COASTAL SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE GULF WATERS OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT SATURDAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD BE MORE
MODERATE...AND SEAS MAY FALL BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MDT NORTH MONDAY MORNING AS
A MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ARRIVES FROM UPSTREAM. A FEW
HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL AGAIN PUSH NORTH WINDS TOWARD 20 KTS
AND LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO SIX OR SEVEN FEET TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST AS THE UPSTREAM
RIDGING SHIFTS EAST...AND PUSHES HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF IT OUT
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66








000
FXUS64 KBRO 212055
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
255 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IMPACTS...
WINDY SATURDAY...CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SAT PM.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD 70 TO 90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 250 MB FLOW IS
HELPING WORK WITH THIS TROUGH/LOW IN INCREASING THE LOW LAYER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY WITH 20 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF...PER BUOY AND ASCAT
OBSERVATION...AND 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH OVER LAND.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WITHIN LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES ARE ALSO
KEEPING A CLOUD LAYER AT AROUND 2000 TO 4000 FT WHICH IS SPARKING A
FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE DAY.

TONIGHT...
850/925MB PRESSURE GRADIENT PEAKS LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 35 TO 45 KNOT WINDS 3000 TO
5000 FT OFF THE SURFACE...WHICH TEND TO BE UNDERDONE IN STRONG UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ONE. COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER SURFACE WINDS...AROUND 15 MPH OR SO. WEAK WARM
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AREA WIDE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

SATURDAY...
WINDY AREA WIDE...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IN RANCHLANDS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MOST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE PEAK LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL SHIFT WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE HIGHWAY 77/281 CORRIDOR. GUSTS
OF 35 TO 40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 3 TO 4 PM BEFORE
THE MAIN TROUGH GETS CLOSER AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WEAK WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER IN PLACE BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S.

LESS CERTAIN IS THE THUNDERSTORM RISK.  STRONG DOWN SLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE EVIDENT IN THE 700MB LAYER THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
COMMONLY RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING IN THE
850/700MB LAYER OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS THESE WINDS COME DOWN OFF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND MEXICAN PLATEAU. 12Z GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS DRYING FAIRLY WELL WHILE THE NAM ONLY BRINGS THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS LAYER TO ABOUT THE RIO GRANDE BEFORE THE SIGNAL DIMINISHES. FEEL
CONFIDENT THIS LAYER WILL WIN OUT DURING THE DAYTIME IN THE RGV
METRO AREAS AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRIER. THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF
A JET MAXIMUM ARRIVING DURING THE DAY PROVIDES SOME DIVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHO WILL ALSO BE FURTHER FROM THE INFLUENCE
OF DOWNSLOPING...SO CARRIED HIGHER POPS IN NORTHERN JIM
HOGG/BROOKS/KENEDY COUNTIES WHERE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODEST
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREA WIDE...BEST CHANCES REMAIN OVER
THE BRUSH COUNTRY.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD
ERADICATE ANY RESIDUAL CAPPING. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO INITIATE
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH THE
TRAJECTORY SUPPORTING BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE HEBBRONVILLE AND
FALFURRIAS AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS WEAK AND A STRONGER 850MB WESTERLY WIND SHIFT IS MARKED
BY MUCH DRYER AND WARMER AIR THAT WILL QUICKLY QUASH ANY SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE NIGHT
HOWEVER WITH VALUES FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR LARGE SCALE STORM ORGANIZATION.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CONVECTION THAT INITIATES ON THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO THE AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. DURING THIS TIME A FAIR BALANCE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND STRONG SHEAR COULD WORK WITH CONVERGENCE/COLD POOLS GENERATED BY
CONVECTION TO KEEP A RELATIVELY STRONG COMPLEX MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA. SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE ALL NIGHT BUT IT APPEARS THE
SURFACE TO 850MB TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE GOING TO BE
SOMEWHAT  DISORGANIZED WITH STRONGLY ADVANCING WESTERLIES FROM 850MB
AIDING IN REDUCING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT ARRIVES. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME OF THE LATER THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WOULD GREATLY REDUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND. A BETTER CHANCE EXISTS OVER THE GULF
WATERS FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WIND WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE PLENTIFUL AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER LONGER. IN ALL IT
APPEARS THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
HIGHER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. /68-JGG/

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH DRY AIR TAKING
OVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE 80S...UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PROVIDE A WEAK DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO HELP PROP UP
TEMPS. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP LOW TEMPS RADIATE DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A MARITIME
POLAR AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA MID MONDAY...AND WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH A FEW
EXTRA CLOUDS IN THE AREA...BUT NOT MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE DEFINITIVELY TO MODERATE NORTHWEST...THOUGH A BIT
STRONGER OVER THE WATER...RESULTING IN ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS FOR
A FEW HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL MOVE OVER EAST TEXAS WITH LITTLE
IMPACT THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS
BEGINNING MONDAY AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS MARITIME POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 40S...BENEFITING
FROM CLEAR SKIES TO GET BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AND WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST WITH AN UPWARD
TREND IN DEW POINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. COASTAL SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE GULF WATERS OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT SATURDAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD BE MORE
MODERATE...AND SEAS MAY FALL BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MDT NORTH MONDAY MORNING AS
A MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ARRIVES FROM UPSTREAM. A FEW
HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL AGAIN PUSH NORTH WINDS TOWARD 20 KTS
AND LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO SIX OR SEVEN FEET TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST AS THE UPSTREAM
RIDGING SHIFTS EAST...AND PUSHES HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF IT OUT
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  82  66  81 /  20  30  40   0
BROWNSVILLE          72  83  66  83 /  20  20  40   0
HARLINGEN            71  84  64  83 /  20  20  40   0
MCALLEN              70  86  62  85 /  20  10  40   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  87  59  86 /  20  20  40   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  78  68  79 /  30  30  50   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/54/MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 212055
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
255 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IMPACTS...
WINDY SATURDAY...CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SAT PM.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD 70 TO 90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 250 MB FLOW IS
HELPING WORK WITH THIS TROUGH/LOW IN INCREASING THE LOW LAYER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY WITH 20 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF...PER BUOY AND ASCAT
OBSERVATION...AND 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH OVER LAND.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WITHIN LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES ARE ALSO
KEEPING A CLOUD LAYER AT AROUND 2000 TO 4000 FT WHICH IS SPARKING A
FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE DAY.

TONIGHT...
850/925MB PRESSURE GRADIENT PEAKS LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 35 TO 45 KNOT WINDS 3000 TO
5000 FT OFF THE SURFACE...WHICH TEND TO BE UNDERDONE IN STRONG UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ONE. COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER SURFACE WINDS...AROUND 15 MPH OR SO. WEAK WARM
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AREA WIDE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

SATURDAY...
WINDY AREA WIDE...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IN RANCHLANDS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MOST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE PEAK LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL SHIFT WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE HIGHWAY 77/281 CORRIDOR. GUSTS
OF 35 TO 40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 3 TO 4 PM BEFORE
THE MAIN TROUGH GETS CLOSER AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WEAK WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER IN PLACE BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S.

LESS CERTAIN IS THE THUNDERSTORM RISK.  STRONG DOWN SLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE EVIDENT IN THE 700MB LAYER THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
COMMONLY RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING IN THE
850/700MB LAYER OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS THESE WINDS COME DOWN OFF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND MEXICAN PLATEAU. 12Z GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS DRYING FAIRLY WELL WHILE THE NAM ONLY BRINGS THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS LAYER TO ABOUT THE RIO GRANDE BEFORE THE SIGNAL DIMINISHES. FEEL
CONFIDENT THIS LAYER WILL WIN OUT DURING THE DAYTIME IN THE RGV
METRO AREAS AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRIER. THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF
A JET MAXIMUM ARRIVING DURING THE DAY PROVIDES SOME DIVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHO WILL ALSO BE FURTHER FROM THE INFLUENCE
OF DOWNSLOPING...SO CARRIED HIGHER POPS IN NORTHERN JIM
HOGG/BROOKS/KENEDY COUNTIES WHERE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODEST
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREA WIDE...BEST CHANCES REMAIN OVER
THE BRUSH COUNTRY.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD
ERADICATE ANY RESIDUAL CAPPING. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO INITIATE
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH THE
TRAJECTORY SUPPORTING BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE HEBBRONVILLE AND
FALFURRIAS AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS WEAK AND A STRONGER 850MB WESTERLY WIND SHIFT IS MARKED
BY MUCH DRYER AND WARMER AIR THAT WILL QUICKLY QUASH ANY SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE NIGHT
HOWEVER WITH VALUES FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR LARGE SCALE STORM ORGANIZATION.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CONVECTION THAT INITIATES ON THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO THE AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. DURING THIS TIME A FAIR BALANCE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND STRONG SHEAR COULD WORK WITH CONVERGENCE/COLD POOLS GENERATED BY
CONVECTION TO KEEP A RELATIVELY STRONG COMPLEX MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA. SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE ALL NIGHT BUT IT APPEARS THE
SURFACE TO 850MB TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE GOING TO BE
SOMEWHAT  DISORGANIZED WITH STRONGLY ADVANCING WESTERLIES FROM 850MB
AIDING IN REDUCING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT ARRIVES. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME OF THE LATER THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WOULD GREATLY REDUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND. A BETTER CHANCE EXISTS OVER THE GULF
WATERS FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WIND WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE PLENTIFUL AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER LONGER. IN ALL IT
APPEARS THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
HIGHER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. /68-JGG/

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH DRY AIR TAKING
OVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE 80S...UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PROVIDE A WEAK DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO HELP PROP UP
TEMPS. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP LOW TEMPS RADIATE DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A MARITIME
POLAR AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA MID MONDAY...AND WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH A FEW
EXTRA CLOUDS IN THE AREA...BUT NOT MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE DEFINITIVELY TO MODERATE NORTHWEST...THOUGH A BIT
STRONGER OVER THE WATER...RESULTING IN ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS FOR
A FEW HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL MOVE OVER EAST TEXAS WITH LITTLE
IMPACT THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS
BEGINNING MONDAY AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS MARITIME POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 40S...BENEFITING
FROM CLEAR SKIES TO GET BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AND WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST WITH AN UPWARD
TREND IN DEW POINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. COASTAL SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE GULF WATERS OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT SATURDAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD BE MORE
MODERATE...AND SEAS MAY FALL BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MDT NORTH MONDAY MORNING AS
A MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ARRIVES FROM UPSTREAM. A FEW
HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL AGAIN PUSH NORTH WINDS TOWARD 20 KTS
AND LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO SIX OR SEVEN FEET TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST AS THE UPSTREAM
RIDGING SHIFTS EAST...AND PUSHES HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF IT OUT
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  82  66  81 /  20  30  40   0
BROWNSVILLE          72  83  66  83 /  20  20  40   0
HARLINGEN            71  84  64  83 /  20  20  40   0
MCALLEN              70  86  62  85 /  20  10  40   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  87  59  86 /  20  20  40   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  78  68  79 /  30  30  50   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/54/MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 211723 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1123 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS ARE IMPROVING OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND NEAR
THE COAST BUT A ZONE OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE 281 CORRIDOR HAS KEPT
IFR CIGS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT THAT ZONE WILL
NOT CHANGE MUCH IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND THAT MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUD COVER LOOKS
LIKELY TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AREA WIDE BY SUNRISE. STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS WILL BE APPROACHING 30 TO 35 KTS BY 18Z
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. /68-JGG./

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ON SOUTH WINDS. AVIATION CONDITIONS IMPROVE
LATER TODAY AS THE SOUTH WINDS INCREASE ALLOWING FOR CEILINGS TO
RISE. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH
MIGHT TEMPORARILY LOWER CEILINGS. LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE ADVERTISED
POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY AND
TEXAS SATURDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO WITH 140+ KNOT UPPER JET IS NOTED ON ITS
WESTERN SIDE. SURFACE PRESSURES TO FALL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET TO INTENSIFY WHICH IN TURN WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING SOUTH
WINDS TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS ALL AREAS LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LIMITED LIFT SO EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO WARM EVEN WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HOWEVER SOME LIMITED
BREAKS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RAYS OF SUNSHINE. AS MENTIONED SOUTH
WINDS TO INCREASE BECOMING BREEZY. LITTLE DECOUPLING TONIGHT WITH
THE LLJ INCREASING TO AROUND 35-40 KNOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
AND MODERATE SOUTH WIND TO MAKE FOR A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE
RGV MAYBE REACHING 70 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

SATURDAY...INTERESTING DAY IN STORE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. FIRST SPC HAS PLACED THE CWA IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. INGREDIENTS ARE BECOMING MORE INLINE WITH
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF CAPPING INVERSION...ALBEIT NOT AS STRONG
AS THE LAST FEW DAYS...WILL OUT WAY THE OTHER STRONG DYNAMICS
LIMITING THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION. THE MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DOES PLACE OF THE CWA IN
HEART OF THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL JET AND IN A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ENHANCING THE LIFT. WOULD EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO START
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST WHILE STEADILY INTENSIFYING AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET. BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 60-80 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG TO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPER CELLS. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 3-9 PM WITH THE NORTHERN RANCH
LANDS HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEEING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER BEFORE THE MAIN
LINE APPROACHES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A VERY HUMID FEEL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL LOWS IN THE MORNING LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL READING IN THE
AFTERNOON. PLEASE MONITOR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS AND CHECK THE NWS
WEB PAGE FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MUCH CALMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED AS THE INITIAL SQUALL LINE
PULLS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE VALLEY IN ITS WAKE. SUNDAY WILL SEE
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WILL HELP TO FURTHER DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE AND PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS MARKING THE
ARRIVAL OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO
THE 60S...WITH CAA MODIFIED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY
SURGE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL GENERALLY JUST
REINFORCE THE DRIER AIR VALLEYWIDE. SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO TEXAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
THE GULF WATERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE LAGUNA LATER TODAY. THE GRADIENT REMAINS
STRONG THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE LAGUNA SEEING ANOTHER
ISSUANCE OF SCAS OVERNIGHT OR TOMORROW. LIGHT RAIN TODAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LAST PART OF THE SQUALL LINE
WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THE MAIN PART OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SOME MODELS STILL PUSHING A
STRONGER FRONT THROUGH SO BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE HIGHER WINDS. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM 6 FEET DOWN TO 3. THE
REINFORCING NORTHERLY SURGE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING
WINDS BACK UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  72  80  63 /  40  20  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          80  71  81  62 /  40  20  20  40
HARLINGEN            80  70  82  60 /  40  10  20  40
MCALLEN              81  69  84  60 /  30  20  20  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      81  68  85  58 /  20  20  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  73  79  67 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/54






000
FXUS64 KBRO 211140 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
540 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ON SOUTH WINDS. AVIATION CONDITIONS IMPROVE
LATER TODAY AS THE SOUTH WINDS INCREASE ALLOWING FOR CEILINGS TO
RISE. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH
MIGHT TEMPORARILY LOWER CEILINGS. LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE ADVERTISED
POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY AND
TEXAS SATURDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO WITH 140+ KNOT UPPER JET IS NOTED ON ITS
WESTERN SIDE. SURFACE PRESSURES TO FALL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET TO INTENSIFY WHICH IN TURN WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING SOUTH
WINDS TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS ALL AREAS LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LIMITED LIFT SO EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO WARM EVEN WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HOWEVER SOME LIMITED
BREAKS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RAYS OF SUNSHINE. AS MENTIONED SOUTH
WINDS TO INCREASE BECOMING BREEZY. LITTLE DECOUPLING TONIGHT WITH
THE LLJ INCREASING TO AROUND 35-40 KNOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
AND MODERATE SOUTH WIND TO MAKE FOR A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE
RGV MAYBE REACHING 70 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

SATURDAY...INTERESTING DAY IN STORE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. FIRST SPC HAS PLACED THE CWA IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. INGREDIENTS ARE BECOMING MORE INLINE WITH
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF CAPPING INVERSION...ALBEIT NOT AS STRONG
AS THE LAST FEW DAYS...WILL OUT WAY THE OTHER STRONG DYNAMICS
LIMITING THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION. THE MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DOES PLACE OF THE CWA IN
HEART OF THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL JET AND IN A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ENHANCING THE LIFT. WOULD EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO START
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST WHILE STEADILY INTENSIFYING AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET. BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 60-80 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG TO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPER CELLS. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 3-9 PM WITH THE NORTHERN RANCH
LANDS HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEEING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER BEFORE THE MAIN
LINE APPROACHES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A VERY HUMID FEEL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL LOWS IN THE MORNING LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL READING IN THE
AFTERNOON. PLEASE MONITOR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS AND CHECK THE NWS
WEB PAGE FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MUCH CALMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED AS THE INITIAL SQUALL LINE
PULLS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE VALLEY IN ITS WAKE. SUNDAY WILL SEE
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WILL HELP TO FURTHER DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE AND PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS MARKING THE
ARRIVAL OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO
THE 60S...WITH CAA MODIFIED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY
SURGE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL GENERALLY JUST
REINFORCE THE DRIER AIR VALLEYWIDE. SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO TEXAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
THE GULF WATERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE LAGUNA LATER TODAY. THE GRADIENT REMAINS
STRONG THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE LAGUNA SEEING ANOTHER
ISSUANCE OF SCAS OVERNIGHT OR TOMORROW. LIGHT RAIN TODAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LAST PART OF THE SQUALL LINE
WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THE MAIN PART OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SOME MODELS STILL PUSHING A
STRONGER FRONT THROUGH SO BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE HIGHER WINDS. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM 6 FEET DOWN TO 3. THE
REINFORCING NORTHERLY SURGE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING
WINDS BACK UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  72  80  63 /  40  20  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          80  71  81  62 /  40  20  30  40
HARLINGEN            80  70  82  60 /  40  10  30  30
MCALLEN              81  69  84  60 /  30  20  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      81  68  85  58 /  20  20  30  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  73  79  67 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
     CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/64






000
FXUS64 KBRO 211018
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
418 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE ADVERTISED
POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY AND
TEXAS SATURDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO WITH 140+ KNOT UPPER JET IS NOTED ON ITS
WESTERN SIDE. SURFACE PRESSURES TO FALL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET TO INTENSIFY WHICH IN TURN WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING SOUTH
WINDS TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS ALL AREAS LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LIMITED LIFT SO EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO WARM EVEN WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HOWEVER SOME LIMITED
BREAKS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RAYS OF SUNSHINE. AS MENTIONED SOUTH
WINDS TO INCREASE BECOMING BREEZY. LITTLE DECOUPLING TONIGHT WITH
THE LLJ INCREASING TO AROUND 35-40 KNOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
AND MODERATE SOUTH WIND TO MAKE FOR A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE
RGV MAYBE REACHING 70 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.


SATURDAY...INTERESTING DAY IN STORE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. FIRST SPC HAS PLACED THE CWA IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. INGREDIENTS ARE BECOMING MORE INLINE WITH
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF CAPPING INVERSION...ALBEIT NOT AS STRONG
AS THE LAST FEW DAYS...WILL OUT WAY THE OTHER STRONG DYNAMICS
LIMITING THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION. THE MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DOES PLACE OF THE CWA IN
HEART OF THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL JET AND IN A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ENHANCING THE LIFT. WOULD EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO START
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST WHILE STEADILY INTENSIFYING AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET. BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 60-80 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG TO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPER CELLS. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 3-9 PM WITH THE NORTHERN RANCH
LANDS HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEEING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER BEFORE THE MAIN
LINE APPROACHES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A VERY HUMID FEEL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL LOWS IN THE MORNING LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL READING IN THE
AFTERNOON. PLEASE MONITOR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS AND CHECK THE NWS
WEB PAGE FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MUCH CALMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED AS THE INITIAL SQUALL LINE
PULLS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE VALLEY IN ITS WAKE. SUNDAY WILL SEE
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WILL HELP TO FURTHER DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE AND PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS MARKING THE
ARRIVAL OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO
THE 60S...WITH CAA MODIFIED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY
SURGE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL GENERALLY JUST
REINFORCE THE DRIER AIR VALLEYWIDE. SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO TEXAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
THE GULF WATERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE LAGUNA LATER TODAY. THE GRADIENT REMAINS
STRONG THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE LAGUNA SEEING ANOTHER
ISSUANCE OF SCAS OVERNIGHT OR TOMORROW. LIGHT RAIN TODAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LAST PART OF THE SQUALL LINE
WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THE MAIN PART OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SOME MODELS STILL PUSHING A
STRONGER FRONT THROUGH SO BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE HIGHER WINDS. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM 6 FEET DOWN TO 3. THE
REINFORCING NORTHERLY SURGE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING
WINDS BACK UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  72  80  63 /  40  20  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          80  71  81  62 /  40  20  30  40
HARLINGEN            80  70  82  60 /  40  10  30  30
MCALLEN              81  69  84  60 /  30  20  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      81  68  85  58 /  20  20  30  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  73  79  67 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
     CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

59/64






000
FXUS64 KBRO 211018
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
418 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE ADVERTISED
POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY AND
TEXAS SATURDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO WITH 140+ KNOT UPPER JET IS NOTED ON ITS
WESTERN SIDE. SURFACE PRESSURES TO FALL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET TO INTENSIFY WHICH IN TURN WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING SOUTH
WINDS TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS ALL AREAS LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LIMITED LIFT SO EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO WARM EVEN WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HOWEVER SOME LIMITED
BREAKS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RAYS OF SUNSHINE. AS MENTIONED SOUTH
WINDS TO INCREASE BECOMING BREEZY. LITTLE DECOUPLING TONIGHT WITH
THE LLJ INCREASING TO AROUND 35-40 KNOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
AND MODERATE SOUTH WIND TO MAKE FOR A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE
RGV MAYBE REACHING 70 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.


SATURDAY...INTERESTING DAY IN STORE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. FIRST SPC HAS PLACED THE CWA IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. INGREDIENTS ARE BECOMING MORE INLINE WITH
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF CAPPING INVERSION...ALBEIT NOT AS STRONG
AS THE LAST FEW DAYS...WILL OUT WAY THE OTHER STRONG DYNAMICS
LIMITING THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION. THE MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DOES PLACE OF THE CWA IN
HEART OF THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL JET AND IN A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ENHANCING THE LIFT. WOULD EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO START
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST WHILE STEADILY INTENSIFYING AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET. BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 60-80 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG TO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPER CELLS. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 3-9 PM WITH THE NORTHERN RANCH
LANDS HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEEING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER BEFORE THE MAIN
LINE APPROACHES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A VERY HUMID FEEL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL LOWS IN THE MORNING LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL READING IN THE
AFTERNOON. PLEASE MONITOR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS AND CHECK THE NWS
WEB PAGE FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MUCH CALMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED AS THE INITIAL SQUALL LINE
PULLS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE VALLEY IN ITS WAKE. SUNDAY WILL SEE
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WILL HELP TO FURTHER DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE AND PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS MARKING THE
ARRIVAL OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO
THE 60S...WITH CAA MODIFIED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY
SURGE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL GENERALLY JUST
REINFORCE THE DRIER AIR VALLEYWIDE. SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO TEXAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
THE GULF WATERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE LAGUNA LATER TODAY. THE GRADIENT REMAINS
STRONG THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE LAGUNA SEEING ANOTHER
ISSUANCE OF SCAS OVERNIGHT OR TOMORROW. LIGHT RAIN TODAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LAST PART OF THE SQUALL LINE
WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THE MAIN PART OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SOME MODELS STILL PUSHING A
STRONGER FRONT THROUGH SO BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE HIGHER WINDS. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM 6 FEET DOWN TO 3. THE
REINFORCING NORTHERLY SURGE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING
WINDS BACK UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  72  80  63 /  40  20  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          80  71  81  62 /  40  20  30  40
HARLINGEN            80  70  82  60 /  40  10  30  30
MCALLEN              81  69  84  60 /  30  20  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      81  68  85  58 /  20  20  30  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  73  79  67 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
     CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

59/64






000
FXUS64 KBRO 211018
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
418 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE ADVERTISED
POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY AND
TEXAS SATURDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO WITH 140+ KNOT UPPER JET IS NOTED ON ITS
WESTERN SIDE. SURFACE PRESSURES TO FALL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET TO INTENSIFY WHICH IN TURN WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING SOUTH
WINDS TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS ALL AREAS LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LIMITED LIFT SO EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO WARM EVEN WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HOWEVER SOME LIMITED
BREAKS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RAYS OF SUNSHINE. AS MENTIONED SOUTH
WINDS TO INCREASE BECOMING BREEZY. LITTLE DECOUPLING TONIGHT WITH
THE LLJ INCREASING TO AROUND 35-40 KNOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
AND MODERATE SOUTH WIND TO MAKE FOR A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE
RGV MAYBE REACHING 70 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.


SATURDAY...INTERESTING DAY IN STORE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. FIRST SPC HAS PLACED THE CWA IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. INGREDIENTS ARE BECOMING MORE INLINE WITH
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF CAPPING INVERSION...ALBEIT NOT AS STRONG
AS THE LAST FEW DAYS...WILL OUT WAY THE OTHER STRONG DYNAMICS
LIMITING THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION. THE MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DOES PLACE OF THE CWA IN
HEART OF THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL JET AND IN A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ENHANCING THE LIFT. WOULD EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO START
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST WHILE STEADILY INTENSIFYING AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET. BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 60-80 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG TO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPER CELLS. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 3-9 PM WITH THE NORTHERN RANCH
LANDS HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEEING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER BEFORE THE MAIN
LINE APPROACHES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A VERY HUMID FEEL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL LOWS IN THE MORNING LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL READING IN THE
AFTERNOON. PLEASE MONITOR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS AND CHECK THE NWS
WEB PAGE FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MUCH CALMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED AS THE INITIAL SQUALL LINE
PULLS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE VALLEY IN ITS WAKE. SUNDAY WILL SEE
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WILL HELP TO FURTHER DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE AND PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS MARKING THE
ARRIVAL OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO
THE 60S...WITH CAA MODIFIED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY
SURGE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL GENERALLY JUST
REINFORCE THE DRIER AIR VALLEYWIDE. SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO TEXAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
THE GULF WATERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE LAGUNA LATER TODAY. THE GRADIENT REMAINS
STRONG THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE LAGUNA SEEING ANOTHER
ISSUANCE OF SCAS OVERNIGHT OR TOMORROW. LIGHT RAIN TODAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LAST PART OF THE SQUALL LINE
WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THE MAIN PART OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SOME MODELS STILL PUSHING A
STRONGER FRONT THROUGH SO BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE HIGHER WINDS. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM 6 FEET DOWN TO 3. THE
REINFORCING NORTHERLY SURGE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING
WINDS BACK UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  72  80  63 /  40  20  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          80  71  81  62 /  40  20  30  40
HARLINGEN            80  70  82  60 /  40  10  30  30
MCALLEN              81  69  84  60 /  30  20  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      81  68  85  58 /  20  20  30  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  73  79  67 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
     CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

59/64







000
FXUS64 KBRO 211018
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
418 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE ADVERTISED
POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY AND
TEXAS SATURDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO WITH 140+ KNOT UPPER JET IS NOTED ON ITS
WESTERN SIDE. SURFACE PRESSURES TO FALL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET TO INTENSIFY WHICH IN TURN WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING SOUTH
WINDS TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS ALL AREAS LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LIMITED LIFT SO EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO WARM EVEN WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HOWEVER SOME LIMITED
BREAKS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RAYS OF SUNSHINE. AS MENTIONED SOUTH
WINDS TO INCREASE BECOMING BREEZY. LITTLE DECOUPLING TONIGHT WITH
THE LLJ INCREASING TO AROUND 35-40 KNOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
AND MODERATE SOUTH WIND TO MAKE FOR A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE
RGV MAYBE REACHING 70 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.


SATURDAY...INTERESTING DAY IN STORE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. FIRST SPC HAS PLACED THE CWA IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. INGREDIENTS ARE BECOMING MORE INLINE WITH
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF CAPPING INVERSION...ALBEIT NOT AS STRONG
AS THE LAST FEW DAYS...WILL OUT WAY THE OTHER STRONG DYNAMICS
LIMITING THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION. THE MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DOES PLACE OF THE CWA IN
HEART OF THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL JET AND IN A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ENHANCING THE LIFT. WOULD EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO START
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST WHILE STEADILY INTENSIFYING AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET. BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 60-80 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG TO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPER CELLS. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 3-9 PM WITH THE NORTHERN RANCH
LANDS HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEEING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER BEFORE THE MAIN
LINE APPROACHES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A VERY HUMID FEEL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL LOWS IN THE MORNING LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL READING IN THE
AFTERNOON. PLEASE MONITOR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS AND CHECK THE NWS
WEB PAGE FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MUCH CALMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED AS THE INITIAL SQUALL LINE
PULLS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE VALLEY IN ITS WAKE. SUNDAY WILL SEE
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WILL HELP TO FURTHER DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE AND PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS MARKING THE
ARRIVAL OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO
THE 60S...WITH CAA MODIFIED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY
SURGE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL GENERALLY JUST
REINFORCE THE DRIER AIR VALLEYWIDE. SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO TEXAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
THE GULF WATERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE LAGUNA LATER TODAY. THE GRADIENT REMAINS
STRONG THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE LAGUNA SEEING ANOTHER
ISSUANCE OF SCAS OVERNIGHT OR TOMORROW. LIGHT RAIN TODAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LAST PART OF THE SQUALL LINE
WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THE MAIN PART OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SOME MODELS STILL PUSHING A
STRONGER FRONT THROUGH SO BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE HIGHER WINDS. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM 6 FEET DOWN TO 3. THE
REINFORCING NORTHERLY SURGE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING
WINDS BACK UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  72  80  63 /  40  20  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          80  71  81  62 /  40  20  30  40
HARLINGEN            80  70  82  60 /  40  10  30  30
MCALLEN              81  69  84  60 /  30  20  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      81  68  85  58 /  20  20  30  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  73  79  67 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
     CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

59/64







000
FXUS64 KBRO 210542 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1142 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT ADVECTING
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY APPROACH IFR AT TIMES AT KHRL AND LESS SO AT KBRO
OVERNIGHT TO VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR AT KMFE. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE TO THE NORTH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND PRODUCE
BRIEF LIGHT RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHEN DURING
THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
KEEPING THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST. MENTIONED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
VISIBILITY OVER MCALLEN WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE. SE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AS
THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A SLOW WARMING TREND...PARTIAL CLEARING...AND
A CHANGE IN LAPSE RATE MORE INDICATIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY. POPS AND QPF WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE...
MOSTLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFSMOS
FOR MOST FORECAST ELEMENTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAJOR CONCERN WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. LEFT OUT
MENTION OF SEVERE AT THIS TIME AS THE TROUGH AXIS...UPPER LEVEL
JET POSITION...AND DIURNAL TIMING FAVOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. HOWEVER...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS IS POSSIBLE AND COULD
BRING A LINE OF SUB-SEVERE...BUT STRONG...STORMS THROUGH THE AREA.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS TO 40-50 MPH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL AND DRY
WEATHER UP TO THANKSGIVING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...THEN SHIFTING TO FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY MID-WEEK.

MARINE...
EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG FLOW AND EQUALLY RESPONSIVE BAYS AND
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY ON THE BORDER OF SCEC AND SCA.
MARINERS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE LINE OF STORMS PROJECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WILL BE STRONG. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BRING AT
LEAST SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE TRANQUIL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM TUESDAY ON WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  67  79  70  82 /  20  20  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          66  80  69  83 /  20  20  20  30
HARLINGEN            62  80  69  83 /  20  20  20  30
MCALLEN              63  81  69  87 /  10  10  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      62  80  67  86 /  10  10  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  79  71  79 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67...AVIATION
59






000
FXUS64 KBRO 210542 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1142 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT ADVECTING
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY APPROACH IFR AT TIMES AT KHRL AND LESS SO AT KBRO
OVERNIGHT TO VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR AT KMFE. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE TO THE NORTH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND PRODUCE
BRIEF LIGHT RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHEN DURING
THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
KEEPING THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST. MENTIONED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
VISIBILITY OVER MCALLEN WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE. SE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AS
THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A SLOW WARMING TREND...PARTIAL CLEARING...AND
A CHANGE IN LAPSE RATE MORE INDICATIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY. POPS AND QPF WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE...
MOSTLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFSMOS
FOR MOST FORECAST ELEMENTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAJOR CONCERN WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. LEFT OUT
MENTION OF SEVERE AT THIS TIME AS THE TROUGH AXIS...UPPER LEVEL
JET POSITION...AND DIURNAL TIMING FAVOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. HOWEVER...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS IS POSSIBLE AND COULD
BRING A LINE OF SUB-SEVERE...BUT STRONG...STORMS THROUGH THE AREA.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS TO 40-50 MPH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL AND DRY
WEATHER UP TO THANKSGIVING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...THEN SHIFTING TO FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY MID-WEEK.

MARINE...
EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG FLOW AND EQUALLY RESPONSIVE BAYS AND
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY ON THE BORDER OF SCEC AND SCA.
MARINERS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE LINE OF STORMS PROJECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WILL BE STRONG. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BRING AT
LEAST SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE TRANQUIL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM TUESDAY ON WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  67  79  70  82 /  20  20  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          66  80  69  83 /  20  20  20  30
HARLINGEN            62  80  69  83 /  20  20  20  30
MCALLEN              63  81  69  87 /  10  10  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      62  80  67  86 /  10  10  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  79  71  79 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67...AVIATION
59







000
FXUS64 KBRO 202354
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
554 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
KEEPING THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST. MENTIONED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
VISIBILITY OVER MCALLEN WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE. SE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AS
THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A SLOW WARMING TREND...PARTIAL CLEARING...AND
A CHANGE IN LAPSE RATE MORE INDICATIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY. POPS AND QPF WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE...
MOSTLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFSMOS
FOR MOST FORECAST ELEMENTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAJOR CONCERN WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. LEFT OUT
MENTION OF SEVERE AT THIS TIME AS THE TROUGH AXIS...UPPER LEVEL
JET POSITION...AND DIURNAL TIMING FAVOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. HOWEVER...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS IS POSSIBLE AND COULD
BRING A LINE OF SUB-SEVERE...BUT STRONG...STORMS THROUGH THE AREA.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS TO 40-50 MPH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL AND DRY
WEATHER UP TO THANKSGIVING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...THEN SHIFTING TO FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY MID-WEEK.

MARINE...
EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG FLOW AND EQUALLY RESPONSIVE BAYS AND
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY ON THE BORDER OF SCEC AND SCA.
MARINERS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE LINE OF STORMS PROJECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WILL BE STRONG. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BRING AT
LEAST SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE TRANQUIL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM TUESDAY ON WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66









000
FXUS64 KBRO 202354
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
554 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
KEEPING THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST. MENTIONED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
VISIBILITY OVER MCALLEN WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE. SE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AS
THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A SLOW WARMING TREND...PARTIAL CLEARING...AND
A CHANGE IN LAPSE RATE MORE INDICATIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY. POPS AND QPF WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE...
MOSTLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFSMOS
FOR MOST FORECAST ELEMENTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAJOR CONCERN WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. LEFT OUT
MENTION OF SEVERE AT THIS TIME AS THE TROUGH AXIS...UPPER LEVEL
JET POSITION...AND DIURNAL TIMING FAVOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. HOWEVER...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS IS POSSIBLE AND COULD
BRING A LINE OF SUB-SEVERE...BUT STRONG...STORMS THROUGH THE AREA.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS TO 40-50 MPH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL AND DRY
WEATHER UP TO THANKSGIVING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...THEN SHIFTING TO FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY MID-WEEK.

MARINE...
EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG FLOW AND EQUALLY RESPONSIVE BAYS AND
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY ON THE BORDER OF SCEC AND SCA.
MARINERS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE LINE OF STORMS PROJECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WILL BE STRONG. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BRING AT
LEAST SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE TRANQUIL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM TUESDAY ON WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66








000
FXUS64 KBRO 202122
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
322 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A SLOW WARMING TREND...PARTIAL CLEARING...AND
A CHANGE IN LAPSE RATE MORE INDICATIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY. POPS AND QPF WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE...
MOSTLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFSMOS
FOR MOST FORECAST ELEMENTS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAJOR CONCERN WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. LEFT OUT
MENTION OF SEVERE AT THIS TIME AS THE TROUGH AXIS...UPPER LEVEL
JET POSITION...AND DIURNAL TIMING FAVOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. HOWEVER...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS IS POSSIBLE AND COULD
BRING A LINE OF SUB-SEVERE...BUT STRONG...STORMS THROUGH THE AREA.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS TO 40-50 MPH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL AND DRY
WEATHER UP TO THANKSGIVING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...THEN SHIFTING TO FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG FLOW AND EQUALLY RESPONSIVE BAYS AND
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY ON THE BORDER OF SCEC AND SCA.
MARINERS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE LINE OF STORMS PROJECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WILL BE STRONG. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BRING AT
LEAST SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE TRANQUIL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM TUESDAY ON WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  77  73  81 /  30  40  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          72  78  73  82 /  20  40  20  30
HARLINGEN            71  78  71  83 /  30  40  20  30
MCALLEN              68  79  70  84 /  20  40  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      66  78  69  83 /  10  40  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  77  74  79 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

51/51







000
FXUS64 KBRO 201817
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1217 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS
TO INCREASE TO 15 GUSTING TO 25 KTS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CIGS TO
LIFT TO VFR. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF BY AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUING TO PUMP
GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AT LOW LEVELS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE REMAINS AT LOW LEVELS...GENERALLY BELOW
10000 FEET. LOOKING AT ISENTROPIC LAYERS...BEST UPGLIDE TIMES
ARRIVE LATE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
MAIN RESULT WILL BE PATCHY DRIZZLE CONTINUING AREAWIDE
TODAY...WITH DECREASES OVERNIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TOMORROW
MORNING. A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY NOTED IN THE LOWEST LAYERS ON
FRIDAY MAY PROVIDE ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER BACK TO NEAR NOVEMBER
NORMALS. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHICH IS
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WHILE FRIDAY RECOVERS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
TO RIGHT AROUND 80. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S...WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR NORMAL...AND WILL BE THE
WARMEST NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS.

LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY/...THE
EXTENDED IS A TALE OF TWO TRENDS. A WARMING AND BREEZY TREND
CONTINUES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM WITH A SMALL WINDOW FOR
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A COOLING AND MUCH DRIER TREND
ENDING UP WITH A PLEASANT THANKSGIVING DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH THE ADVERTISED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM
THE PAC NW AND DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS FRIDAY
AND TRAVERSING TEXAS SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE FOR
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATER SATURDAY AS THE
BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
GENERATE HIGHER POPS AND INDICATE BETTER AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE AND
JET DYNAMICS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE RGV AS WELL AS SHOWING SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING THE CAPPING INVERSION AS THE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
AOB 850MB. LATEST SWODY2 FROM SPC ALSO INDICATES THE MORE ENHANCED
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. STILL
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITHIN A LINE. POPS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SAT EVENING REMAIN IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE MAINLY NORTHEAST AND EASTERN AREAS. OTHER SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL CONSIST OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY...THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SWINGS A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. THE DRIER AIR INITIALLY ALLOWS TEMPERATURES
TO LOWER ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY MORNING. ON SUNDAY A BRIEF
RETURN OF SUMMER AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO MID TO UPPER 80S AND
MAY APPROACH 90 ALONG THE UPPER RIO GRANDE. 850 TEMPS CLIMB TO 18C
AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSES THE ALREADY DRY
AIRMASS.

MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE FOR COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS. A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND TAKES PLACE AS A BROAD TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A BROAD TROUGH WITH AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING IN FROM THE PAC NW. WITH THE TROUGH SOLUTION BEING
THE TREND FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS WILL CONTINUE LEANING IN THIS
DIRECTION AS DOES WPC`S OFFICIAL FORECAST. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN
PLACE SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. NO DRASTIC
TEMPERATURES BUT EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS TO DEVELOP RANGE WITH
COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT RECOVERY ON TURKEY DAY AS WINDS RETURN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO INCREASE TODAY...WITH WINDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
TODAY AND LIKELY RIGHT AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
SEAS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING RIGHT AROUND 4 FEET...AND WILL BEGIN TO
REBUILD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS
FORECAST. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MARINE
ZONES TODAY AND AGAIN TOMORROW.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONG MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. ON GOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AND WILL PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS BRIEFLY TURNING WEST THEN SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS BEGIN TO TAPPER DOWNWARD WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTHWARD TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS IS ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

BF/OB







000
FXUS64 KBRO 201817
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1217 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS
TO INCREASE TO 15 GUSTING TO 25 KTS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CIGS TO
LIFT TO VFR. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF BY AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUING TO PUMP
GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AT LOW LEVELS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE REMAINS AT LOW LEVELS...GENERALLY BELOW
10000 FEET. LOOKING AT ISENTROPIC LAYERS...BEST UPGLIDE TIMES
ARRIVE LATE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
MAIN RESULT WILL BE PATCHY DRIZZLE CONTINUING AREAWIDE
TODAY...WITH DECREASES OVERNIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TOMORROW
MORNING. A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY NOTED IN THE LOWEST LAYERS ON
FRIDAY MAY PROVIDE ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER BACK TO NEAR NOVEMBER
NORMALS. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHICH IS
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WHILE FRIDAY RECOVERS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
TO RIGHT AROUND 80. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S...WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR NORMAL...AND WILL BE THE
WARMEST NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS.

LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY/...THE
EXTENDED IS A TALE OF TWO TRENDS. A WARMING AND BREEZY TREND
CONTINUES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM WITH A SMALL WINDOW FOR
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A COOLING AND MUCH DRIER TREND
ENDING UP WITH A PLEASANT THANKSGIVING DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH THE ADVERTISED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM
THE PAC NW AND DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS FRIDAY
AND TRAVERSING TEXAS SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE FOR
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATER SATURDAY AS THE
BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
GENERATE HIGHER POPS AND INDICATE BETTER AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE AND
JET DYNAMICS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE RGV AS WELL AS SHOWING SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING THE CAPPING INVERSION AS THE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
AOB 850MB. LATEST SWODY2 FROM SPC ALSO INDICATES THE MORE ENHANCED
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. STILL
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITHIN A LINE. POPS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SAT EVENING REMAIN IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE MAINLY NORTHEAST AND EASTERN AREAS. OTHER SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL CONSIST OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY...THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SWINGS A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. THE DRIER AIR INITIALLY ALLOWS TEMPERATURES
TO LOWER ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY MORNING. ON SUNDAY A BRIEF
RETURN OF SUMMER AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO MID TO UPPER 80S AND
MAY APPROACH 90 ALONG THE UPPER RIO GRANDE. 850 TEMPS CLIMB TO 18C
AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSES THE ALREADY DRY
AIRMASS.

MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE FOR COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS. A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND TAKES PLACE AS A BROAD TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A BROAD TROUGH WITH AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING IN FROM THE PAC NW. WITH THE TROUGH SOLUTION BEING
THE TREND FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS WILL CONTINUE LEANING IN THIS
DIRECTION AS DOES WPC`S OFFICIAL FORECAST. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN
PLACE SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. NO DRASTIC
TEMPERATURES BUT EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS TO DEVELOP RANGE WITH
COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT RECOVERY ON TURKEY DAY AS WINDS RETURN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO INCREASE TODAY...WITH WINDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
TODAY AND LIKELY RIGHT AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
SEAS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING RIGHT AROUND 4 FEET...AND WILL BEGIN TO
REBUILD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS
FORECAST. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MARINE
ZONES TODAY AND AGAIN TOMORROW.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONG MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. ON GOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AND WILL PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS BRIEFLY TURNING WEST THEN SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS BEGIN TO TAPPER DOWNWARD WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTHWARD TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS IS ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

BF/OB






000
FXUS64 KBRO 201146 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
546 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN BKN TO OVC TODAY WITH CIGS
RUNNING 3500 TO 5000. SOME LIGHT DZ IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST...BUT WILL NOT
ADVERSELY AFFECT VISIBILITY OR CIGS. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE
SE 15G25KTS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASED
LLVL SHEAR POSSIBLE IN THE FIRST 1000 FEET DUE TO FORECAST 1000 FT
WINDS OF 30 TO 40KTS AND NEARLY CALM SFC WINDS. CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUING TO PUMP
GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AT LOW LEVELS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE REMAINS AT LOW LEVELS...GENERALLY BELOW
10000 FEET. LOOKING AT ISENTROPIC LAYERS...BEST UPGLIDE TIMES
ARRIVE LATE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
MAIN RESULT WILL BE PATCHY DRIZZLE CONTINUING AREAWIDE
TODAY...WITH DECREASES OVERNIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TOMORROW
MORNING. A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY NOTED IN THE LOWEST LAYERS ON
FRIDAY MAY PROVIDE ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER BACK TO NEAR NOVEMBER
NORMALS. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHICH IS
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WHILE FRIDAY RECOVERS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
TO RIGHT AROUND 80. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S...WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR NORMAL...AND WILL BE THE
WARMEST NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS.

LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY/...THE
EXTENDED IS A TALE OF TWO TRENDS. A WARMING AND BREEZY TREND
CONTINUES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM WITH A SMALL WINDOW FOR
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A COOLING AND MUCH DRIER TREND
ENDING UP WITH A PLEASANT THANKSGIVING DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH THE ADVERTISED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM
THE PAC NW AND DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS FRIDAY
AND TRAVERSING TEXAS SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE FOR
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATER SATURDAY AS THE
BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
GENERATE HIGHER POPS AND INDICATE BETTER AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE AND
JET DYNAMICS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE RGV AS WELL AS SHOWING SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING THE CAPPING INVERSION AS THE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
AOB 850MB. LATEST SWODY2 FROM SPC ALSO INDICATES THE MORE ENHANCED
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. STILL
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITHIN A LINE. POPS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SAT EVENING REMAIN IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE MAINLY NORTHEAST AND EASTERN AREAS. OTHER SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL CONSIST OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY...THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SWINGS A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. THE DRIER AIR INITIALLY ALLOWS TEMPERATURES
TO LOWER ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY MORNING. ON SUNDAY A BRIEF
RETURN OF SUMMER AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO MID TO UPPER 80S AND
MAY APPROACH 90 ALONG THE UPPER RIO GRANDE. 850 TEMPS CLIMB TO 18C
AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSES THE ALREADY DRY
AIRMASS.

MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE FOR COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS. A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND TAKES PLACE AS A BROAD TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A BROAD TROUGH WITH AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING IN FROM THE PAC NW. WITH THE TROUGH SOLUTION BEING
THE TREND FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS WILL CONTINUE LEANING IN THIS
DIRECTION AS DOES WPC`S OFFICIAL FORECAST. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN
PLACE SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. NO DRASTIC
TEMPERATURES BUT EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS TO DEVELOP RANGE WITH
COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT RECOVERY ON TURKEY DAY AS WINDS RETURN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO INCREASE TODAY...WITH WINDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
TODAY AND LIKELY RIGHT AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
SEAS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING RIGHT AROUND 4 FEET...AND WILL BEGIN TO
REBUILD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS
FORECAST. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MARINE
ZONES TODAY AND AGAIN TOMORROW.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONG MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. ON GOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AND WILL PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS BRIEFLY TURNING WEST THEN SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS BEGIN TO TAPPER DOWNWARD WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTHWARD TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS IS ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64/51






000
FXUS64 KBRO 201146 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
546 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN BKN TO OVC TODAY WITH CIGS
RUNNING 3500 TO 5000. SOME LIGHT DZ IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST...BUT WILL NOT
ADVERSELY AFFECT VISIBILITY OR CIGS. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE
SE 15G25KTS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASED
LLVL SHEAR POSSIBLE IN THE FIRST 1000 FEET DUE TO FORECAST 1000 FT
WINDS OF 30 TO 40KTS AND NEARLY CALM SFC WINDS. CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUING TO PUMP
GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AT LOW LEVELS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE REMAINS AT LOW LEVELS...GENERALLY BELOW
10000 FEET. LOOKING AT ISENTROPIC LAYERS...BEST UPGLIDE TIMES
ARRIVE LATE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
MAIN RESULT WILL BE PATCHY DRIZZLE CONTINUING AREAWIDE
TODAY...WITH DECREASES OVERNIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TOMORROW
MORNING. A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY NOTED IN THE LOWEST LAYERS ON
FRIDAY MAY PROVIDE ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER BACK TO NEAR NOVEMBER
NORMALS. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHICH IS
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WHILE FRIDAY RECOVERS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
TO RIGHT AROUND 80. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S...WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR NORMAL...AND WILL BE THE
WARMEST NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS.

LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY/...THE
EXTENDED IS A TALE OF TWO TRENDS. A WARMING AND BREEZY TREND
CONTINUES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM WITH A SMALL WINDOW FOR
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A COOLING AND MUCH DRIER TREND
ENDING UP WITH A PLEASANT THANKSGIVING DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH THE ADVERTISED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM
THE PAC NW AND DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS FRIDAY
AND TRAVERSING TEXAS SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE FOR
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATER SATURDAY AS THE
BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
GENERATE HIGHER POPS AND INDICATE BETTER AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE AND
JET DYNAMICS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE RGV AS WELL AS SHOWING SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING THE CAPPING INVERSION AS THE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
AOB 850MB. LATEST SWODY2 FROM SPC ALSO INDICATES THE MORE ENHANCED
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. STILL
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITHIN A LINE. POPS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SAT EVENING REMAIN IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE MAINLY NORTHEAST AND EASTERN AREAS. OTHER SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL CONSIST OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY...THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SWINGS A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. THE DRIER AIR INITIALLY ALLOWS TEMPERATURES
TO LOWER ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY MORNING. ON SUNDAY A BRIEF
RETURN OF SUMMER AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO MID TO UPPER 80S AND
MAY APPROACH 90 ALONG THE UPPER RIO GRANDE. 850 TEMPS CLIMB TO 18C
AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSES THE ALREADY DRY
AIRMASS.

MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE FOR COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS. A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND TAKES PLACE AS A BROAD TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A BROAD TROUGH WITH AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING IN FROM THE PAC NW. WITH THE TROUGH SOLUTION BEING
THE TREND FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS WILL CONTINUE LEANING IN THIS
DIRECTION AS DOES WPC`S OFFICIAL FORECAST. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN
PLACE SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. NO DRASTIC
TEMPERATURES BUT EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS TO DEVELOP RANGE WITH
COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT RECOVERY ON TURKEY DAY AS WINDS RETURN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO INCREASE TODAY...WITH WINDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
TODAY AND LIKELY RIGHT AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
SEAS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING RIGHT AROUND 4 FEET...AND WILL BEGIN TO
REBUILD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS
FORECAST. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MARINE
ZONES TODAY AND AGAIN TOMORROW.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONG MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. ON GOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AND WILL PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS BRIEFLY TURNING WEST THEN SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS BEGIN TO TAPPER DOWNWARD WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTHWARD TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS IS ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64/51







000
FXUS64 KBRO 201001
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
401 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUING TO PUMP
GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AT LOW LEVELS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE REMAINS AT LOW LEVELS...GENERALLY BELOW
10000 FEET. LOOKING AT ISENTROPIC LAYERS...BEST UPGLIDE TIMES
ARRIVE LATE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
MAIN RESULT WILL BE PATCHY DRIZZLE CONTINUING AREAWIDE
TODAY...WITH DECREASES OVERNIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TOMORROW
MORNING. A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY NOTED IN THE LOWEST LAYERS ON
FRIDAY MAY PROVIDE ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER BACK TO NEAR NOVEMBER
NORMALS. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHICH IS
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WHILE FRIDAY RECOVERS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
TO RIGHT AROUND 80. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S...WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR NORMAL...AND WILL BE THE
WARMEST NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY/...THE
EXTENDED IS A TALE OF TWO TRENDS. A WARMING AND BREEZY TREND
CONTINUES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM WITH A SMALL WINDOW FOR
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A COOLING AND MUCH DRIER TREND
ENDING UP WITH A PLEASANT THANKSGIVING DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH THE ADVERTISED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM
THE PAC NW AND DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS FRIDAY
AND TRAVERSING TEXAS SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE FOR
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATER SATURDAY AS THE
BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
GENERATE HIGHER POPS AND INDICATE BETTER AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE AND
JET DYNAMICS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE RGV AS WELL AS SHOWING SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING THE CAPPING INVERSION AS THE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
AOB 850MB. LATEST SWODY2 FROM SPC ALSO INDICATES THE MORE ENHANCED
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. STILL
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITHIN A LINE. POPS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SAT EVENING REMAIN IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE MAINLY NORTHEAST AND EASTERN AREAS. OTHER SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL CONSIST OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY...THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SWINGS A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. THE DRIER AIR INITIALLY ALLOWS TEMPERATURES
TO LOWER ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY MORNING. ON SUNDAY A BRIEF
RETURN OF SUMMER AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO MID TO UPPER 80S AND
MAY APPROACH 90 ALONG THE UPPER RIO GRANDE. 850 TEMPS CLIMB TO 18C
AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSES THE ALREADY DRY
AIRMASS.

MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE FOR COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS. A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND TAKES PLACE AS A BROAD TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A BROAD TROUGH WITH AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING IN FROM THE PAC NW. WITH THE TROUGH SOLUTION BEING
THE TREND FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS WILL CONTINUE LEANING IN THIS
DIRECTION AS DOES WPC`S OFFICIAL FORECAST. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN
PLACE SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. NO DRASTIC
TEMPERATURES BUT EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS TO DEVELOP RANGE WITH
COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT RECOVERY ON TURKEY DAY AS WINDS RETURN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST.



&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO INCREASE TODAY...WITH WINDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
TODAY AND LIKELY RIGHT AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
SEAS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING RIGHT AROUND 4 FEET...AND WILL BEGIN TO
REBUILD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS
FORECAST. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MARINE
ZONES TODAY AND AGAIN TOMORROW.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONG MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. ON GOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AND WILL PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS BRIEFLY TURNING WEST THEN SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS BEGIN TO TAPPER DOWNWARD WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTHWARD TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS IS ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  67  79  70 /  30  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          77  66  80  69 /  30  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            77  62  80  69 /  30  20  20  20
MCALLEN              78  63  81  69 /  20  10  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  62  80  67 /  20  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  71  79  71 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KBRO 201001
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
401 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUING TO PUMP
GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AT LOW LEVELS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE REMAINS AT LOW LEVELS...GENERALLY BELOW
10000 FEET. LOOKING AT ISENTROPIC LAYERS...BEST UPGLIDE TIMES
ARRIVE LATE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
MAIN RESULT WILL BE PATCHY DRIZZLE CONTINUING AREAWIDE
TODAY...WITH DECREASES OVERNIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TOMORROW
MORNING. A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY NOTED IN THE LOWEST LAYERS ON
FRIDAY MAY PROVIDE ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER BACK TO NEAR NOVEMBER
NORMALS. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHICH IS
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WHILE FRIDAY RECOVERS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
TO RIGHT AROUND 80. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S...WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR NORMAL...AND WILL BE THE
WARMEST NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY/...THE
EXTENDED IS A TALE OF TWO TRENDS. A WARMING AND BREEZY TREND
CONTINUES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM WITH A SMALL WINDOW FOR
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A COOLING AND MUCH DRIER TREND
ENDING UP WITH A PLEASANT THANKSGIVING DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH THE ADVERTISED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM
THE PAC NW AND DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS FRIDAY
AND TRAVERSING TEXAS SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE FOR
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATER SATURDAY AS THE
BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
GENERATE HIGHER POPS AND INDICATE BETTER AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE AND
JET DYNAMICS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE RGV AS WELL AS SHOWING SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING THE CAPPING INVERSION AS THE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
AOB 850MB. LATEST SWODY2 FROM SPC ALSO INDICATES THE MORE ENHANCED
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. STILL
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITHIN A LINE. POPS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SAT EVENING REMAIN IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE MAINLY NORTHEAST AND EASTERN AREAS. OTHER SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL CONSIST OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY...THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SWINGS A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. THE DRIER AIR INITIALLY ALLOWS TEMPERATURES
TO LOWER ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY MORNING. ON SUNDAY A BRIEF
RETURN OF SUMMER AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO MID TO UPPER 80S AND
MAY APPROACH 90 ALONG THE UPPER RIO GRANDE. 850 TEMPS CLIMB TO 18C
AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSES THE ALREADY DRY
AIRMASS.

MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE FOR COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS. A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND TAKES PLACE AS A BROAD TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A BROAD TROUGH WITH AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING IN FROM THE PAC NW. WITH THE TROUGH SOLUTION BEING
THE TREND FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS WILL CONTINUE LEANING IN THIS
DIRECTION AS DOES WPC`S OFFICIAL FORECAST. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN
PLACE SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. NO DRASTIC
TEMPERATURES BUT EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS TO DEVELOP RANGE WITH
COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT RECOVERY ON TURKEY DAY AS WINDS RETURN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST.



&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO INCREASE TODAY...WITH WINDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
TODAY AND LIKELY RIGHT AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
SEAS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING RIGHT AROUND 4 FEET...AND WILL BEGIN TO
REBUILD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS
FORECAST. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MARINE
ZONES TODAY AND AGAIN TOMORROW.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONG MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. ON GOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AND WILL PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS BRIEFLY TURNING WEST THEN SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS BEGIN TO TAPPER DOWNWARD WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTHWARD TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS IS ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  67  79  70 /  30  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          77  66  80  69 /  30  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            77  62  80  69 /  30  20  20  20
MCALLEN              78  63  81  69 /  20  10  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  62  80  67 /  20  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  71  79  71 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KBRO 200456 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1056 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS.
CEILINGS RANGE FROM 2800 FEET AT T65 TO 6500 FEET AT EBG AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 3000 FEET BEFORE INCREASING
TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS SUNRISE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 23 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. INCREASING GULF
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY ON THURSDAY. WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING
AT 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CEILINGS RANGING FROM 3800 FEET AT T65 TO 6000 FEET AT
HRL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 3000 FEET
BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS TOWARDS SUNRISE. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 22 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON THURSDAY. WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TAF SITES BEGINNING AT 15Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WINDS...ALBEIT
LIGHT...SHOULD BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE GULF. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
TO MODERATE AS THE PRESSURE DROPS UPSTREAM AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN IN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AT NIGHT AND SCATTERED
THURSDAY AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAINTAINS SOME INFLUENCE ON NORTH
WARD MVG MOISTURE. ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
MAY OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAIN ITEM OF FOCUS IN THE LONG
TERM IS A VIGOROUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PASSING CLOSE
TO THE REGION AND ITS ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THIS TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE LOW LAYER PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
LOCALLY. CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS COASTAL/CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF AS MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WORKS OVER THE
LAND/SEA THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST. WIND SPEEDS MAY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE DAY
ON SATURDAY WITH 925/850MB WINDS AROUND 40 TO 45KTS. ALSO WARMED
TEMPERATURES A TOUCH FURTHER GIVEN STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE AT THE SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY 700 TO
800MB WINDS WILL LIKELY BE DOWNSLOPING OFF OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU TO
STRENGTHEN CAPPING IN THAT LAYER DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LOW LAYER
MOISTURE. KEPT PRECIP CHANCES MORE MEASURED DUE TO THE EXPECTATION
THIS CAPPING WILL DEVELOP AND BE STRONGER THAN GFS40/NAM12
PROJECTIONS CURRENTLY INDICATE. ANALOGS TO THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TYPICALLY PRODUCE LITTLE CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL AN
ACTUAL FRONT ARRIVES AND MOVES INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST.
THE DRYLINE/FRONT ARRIVES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD OFF THE COAST. KEPT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES EAST OF HIGHWAY
77 AND ENDED THEM SHORTLY AFTER DARK. 12Z ECMWF PAINTS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF POSTFRONTAL PRECIP BUT THIS SEEMS PRETTY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE DEEP
DRY AIR SWEEPING IN ON SFC-500MB WESTERLIES BEHIND THE FRONT.
THINKING FOR NOW IS A HIGHLY CONDITIONAL WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. SHEAR/FORCING AND TO SOME EXTENT INSTABILITY
WOULD FAVOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IF CONVECTION OCCURS BUT CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR MUCH CONCERN AT THE MOMENT.

BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH A SURGE OF 25 TO 35 KNOT WINDS PUSHING
INTO THE GULF ON MONDAY. ECMWF KEEPS MORE SOUTHERLY RIDGING STRONGER
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SEEMS TOO WEAK. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOWED SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE FINAL SOLUTION AS WELL. THE
SYNOPTIC PICTURE SHOWS INCREASING PLAINS CONVERGENCE IN BOTH
GFS/ECMWF WHICH WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME REINFORCING SURGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE/STRONG GULF WINDS. SO FOR THE FORECAST WENT WITH A
REINFORCING SURGE OF DRIER WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH BUT MORE MEASURED
THAN THE GFS SURGE OF 20 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH PRESSURE FALLS
DEVELOPING OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING OVER THAT AREA. THE
SURFACE INTERACTION WILL STRENGTHEN SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THURSDAY
AND SEAS WILL BUILD. MARGINAL TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FUNNELS NORTH
ALONG A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE ON SUNDAY BEFORE A REINFORCING SHOT OF
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES WIND SPEEDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE FRIDAY AND
LIKELY SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63







000
FXUS64 KBRO 200456 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1056 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS.
CEILINGS RANGE FROM 2800 FEET AT T65 TO 6500 FEET AT EBG AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 3000 FEET BEFORE INCREASING
TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS SUNRISE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 23 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. INCREASING GULF
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY ON THURSDAY. WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING
AT 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CEILINGS RANGING FROM 3800 FEET AT T65 TO 6000 FEET AT
HRL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 3000 FEET
BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS TOWARDS SUNRISE. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 22 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON THURSDAY. WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TAF SITES BEGINNING AT 15Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WINDS...ALBEIT
LIGHT...SHOULD BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE GULF. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
TO MODERATE AS THE PRESSURE DROPS UPSTREAM AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN IN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AT NIGHT AND SCATTERED
THURSDAY AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAINTAINS SOME INFLUENCE ON NORTH
WARD MVG MOISTURE. ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
MAY OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAIN ITEM OF FOCUS IN THE LONG
TERM IS A VIGOROUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PASSING CLOSE
TO THE REGION AND ITS ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THIS TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE LOW LAYER PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
LOCALLY. CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS COASTAL/CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF AS MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WORKS OVER THE
LAND/SEA THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST. WIND SPEEDS MAY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE DAY
ON SATURDAY WITH 925/850MB WINDS AROUND 40 TO 45KTS. ALSO WARMED
TEMPERATURES A TOUCH FURTHER GIVEN STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE AT THE SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY 700 TO
800MB WINDS WILL LIKELY BE DOWNSLOPING OFF OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU TO
STRENGTHEN CAPPING IN THAT LAYER DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LOW LAYER
MOISTURE. KEPT PRECIP CHANCES MORE MEASURED DUE TO THE EXPECTATION
THIS CAPPING WILL DEVELOP AND BE STRONGER THAN GFS40/NAM12
PROJECTIONS CURRENTLY INDICATE. ANALOGS TO THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TYPICALLY PRODUCE LITTLE CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL AN
ACTUAL FRONT ARRIVES AND MOVES INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST.
THE DRYLINE/FRONT ARRIVES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD OFF THE COAST. KEPT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES EAST OF HIGHWAY
77 AND ENDED THEM SHORTLY AFTER DARK. 12Z ECMWF PAINTS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF POSTFRONTAL PRECIP BUT THIS SEEMS PRETTY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE DEEP
DRY AIR SWEEPING IN ON SFC-500MB WESTERLIES BEHIND THE FRONT.
THINKING FOR NOW IS A HIGHLY CONDITIONAL WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. SHEAR/FORCING AND TO SOME EXTENT INSTABILITY
WOULD FAVOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IF CONVECTION OCCURS BUT CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR MUCH CONCERN AT THE MOMENT.

BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH A SURGE OF 25 TO 35 KNOT WINDS PUSHING
INTO THE GULF ON MONDAY. ECMWF KEEPS MORE SOUTHERLY RIDGING STRONGER
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SEEMS TOO WEAK. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOWED SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE FINAL SOLUTION AS WELL. THE
SYNOPTIC PICTURE SHOWS INCREASING PLAINS CONVERGENCE IN BOTH
GFS/ECMWF WHICH WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME REINFORCING SURGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE/STRONG GULF WINDS. SO FOR THE FORECAST WENT WITH A
REINFORCING SURGE OF DRIER WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH BUT MORE MEASURED
THAN THE GFS SURGE OF 20 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH PRESSURE FALLS
DEVELOPING OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING OVER THAT AREA. THE
SURFACE INTERACTION WILL STRENGTHEN SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THURSDAY
AND SEAS WILL BUILD. MARGINAL TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FUNNELS NORTH
ALONG A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE ON SUNDAY BEFORE A REINFORCING SHOT OF
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES WIND SPEEDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE FRIDAY AND
LIKELY SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63






000
FXUS64 KBRO 200003 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
603 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS RANGING FROM 3800 FEET AT T65 TO 6000 FEET AT
HRL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 3000 FEET
BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS TOWARDS SUNRISE. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 22 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON THURSDAY. WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TAF SITES BEGINNING AT 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WINDS...ALBEIT
LIGHT...SHOULD BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE GULF. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
TO MODERATE AS THE PRESSURE DROPS UPSTREAM AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN IN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AT NIGHT AND SCATTERED
THURSDAY AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAINTAINS SOME INFLUENCE ON NORTH
WARD MVG MOISTURE. ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
MAY OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAIN ITEM OF FOCUS IN THE LONG
TERM IS A VIGOROUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PASSING CLOSE
TO THE REGION AND ITS ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THIS TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE LOW LAYER PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
LOCALLY. CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS COASTAL/CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF AS MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WORKS OVER THE
LAND/SEA THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST. WIND SPEEDS MAY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE DAY
ON SATURDAY WITH 925/850MB WINDS AROUND 40 TO 45KTS. ALSO WARMED
TEMPERATURES A TOUCH FURTHER GIVEN STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE AT THE SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY 700 TO
800MB WINDS WILL LIKELY BE DOWNSLOPING OFF OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU TO
STRENGTHEN CAPPING IN THAT LAYER DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LOW LAYER
MOISTURE. KEPT PRECIP CHANCES MORE MEASURED DUE TO THE EXPECTATION
THIS CAPPING WILL DEVELOP AND BE STRONGER THAN GFS40/NAM12
PROJECTIONS CURRENTLY INDICATE. ANALOGS TO THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TYPICALLY PRODUCE LITTLE CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL AN
ACTUAL FRONT ARRIVES AND MOVES INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST.
THE DRYLINE/FRONT ARRIVES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD OFF THE COAST. KEPT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES EAST OF HIGHWAY
77 AND ENDED THEM SHORTLY AFTER DARK. 12Z ECMWF PAINTS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF POSTFRONTAL PRECIP BUT THIS SEEMS PRETTY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE DEEP
DRY AIR SWEEPING IN ON SFC-500MB WESTERLIES BEHIND THE FRONT.
THINKING FOR NOW IS A HIGHLY CONDITIONAL WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. SHEAR/FORCING AND TO SOME EXTENT INSTABILITY
WOULD FAVOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IF CONVECTION OCCURS BUT CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR MUCH CONCERN AT THE MOMENT.

BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH A SURGE OF 25 TO 35 KNOT WINDS PUSHING
INTO THE GULF ON MONDAY. ECMWF KEEPS MORE SOUTHERLY RIDGING STRONGER
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SEEMS TOO WEAK. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOWED SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE FINAL SOLUTION AS WELL. THE
SYNOPTIC PICTURE SHOWS INCREASING PLAINS CONVERGENCE IN BOTH
GFS/ECMWF WHICH WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME REINFORCING SURGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE/STRONG GULF WINDS. SO FOR THE FORECAST WENT WITH A
REINFORCING SURGE OF DRIER WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH BUT MORE MEASURED
THAN THE GFS SURGE OF 20 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH PRESSURE FALLS
DEVELOPING OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING OVER THAT AREA. THE
SURFACE INTERACTION WILL STRENGTHEN SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THURSDAY
AND SEAS WILL BUILD. MARGINAL TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FUNNELS NORTH
ALONG A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE ON SUNDAY BEFORE A REINFORCING SHOT OF
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES WIND SPEEDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE FRIDAY AND
LIKELY SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63






000
FXUS64 KBRO 192045
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
245 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WINDS...ALBEIT
LIGHT...SHOULD BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE GULF. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
TO MODERATE AS THE PRESSURE DROPS UPSTREAM AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN IN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AT NIGHT AND SCATTERED
THURSDAY AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAINTAINS SOME INFLUENCE ON NORTH
WARD MVG MOISTURE. ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
MAY OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAIN ITEM OF FOCUS IN THE LONG
TERM IS A VIGOROUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PASSING CLOSE
TO THE REGION AND ITS ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THIS TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE LOW LAYER PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
LOCALLY. CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS COASTAL/CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF AS MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WORKS OVER THE
LAND/SEA THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST. WIND SPEEDS MAY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE DAY
ON SATURDAY WITH 925/850MB WINDS AROUND 40 TO 45KTS. ALSO WARMED
TEMPERATURES A TOUCH FURTHER GIVEN STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE AT THE SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY 700 TO
800MB WINDS WILL LIKELY BE DOWNSLOPING OFF OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU TO
STRENGTHEN CAPPING IN THAT LAYER DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LOW LAYER
MOISTURE. KEPT PRECIP CHANCES MORE MEASURED DUE TO THE EXPECTATION
THIS CAPPING WILL DEVELOP AND BE STRONGER THAN GFS40/NAM12
PROJECTIONS CURRENTLY INDICATE. ANALOGS TO THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TYPICALLY PRODUCE LITTLE CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL AN
ACTUAL FRONT ARRIVES AND MOVES INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST.
THE DRYLINE/FRONT ARRIVES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD OFF THE COAST. KEPT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES EAST OF HIGHWAY
77 AND ENDED THEM SHORTLY AFTER DARK. 12Z ECMWF PAINTS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF POSTFRONTAL PRECIP BUT THIS SEEMS PRETTY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE DEEP
DRY AIR SWEEPING IN ON SFC-500MB WESTERLIES BEHIND THE FRONT.
THINKING FOR NOW IS A HIGHLY CONDITIONAL WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. SHEAR/FORCING AND TO SOME EXTENT INSTABILITY
WOULD FAVOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IF CONVECTION OCCURS BUT CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR MUCH CONCERN AT THE MOMENT.

BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH A SURGE OF 25 TO 35 KNOT WINDS PUSHING
INTO THE GULF ON MONDAY. ECMWF KEEPS MORE SOUTHERLY RIDGING STRONGER
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SEEMS TOO WEAK. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOWED SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE FINAL SOLUTION AS WELL. THE
SYNOPTIC PICTURE SHOWS INCREASING PLAINS CONVERGENCE IN BOTH
GFS/ECMWF WHICH WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME REINFORCING SURGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE/STRONG GULF WINDS. SO FOR THE FORECAST WENT WITH A
REINFORCING SURGE OF DRIER WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH BUT MORE MEASURED
THAN THE GFS SURGE OF 20 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH PRESSURE FALLS
DEVELOPING OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING OVER THAT AREA. THE
SURFACE INTERACTION WILL STRENGTHEN SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THURSDAY
AND SEAS WILL BUILD. MARGINAL TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FUNNELS NORTH
ALONG A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE ON SUNDAY BEFORE A REINFORCING SHOT OF
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES WIND SPEEDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE FRIDAY AND
LIKELY SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  63  76  68  82 /  10  30  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          62  77  66  82 /  10  30  20  20
HARLINGEN            60  77  64  82 /  10  30  20  20
MCALLEN              60  77  64  83 /  10  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      59  76  62  82 /  10  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   67  75  70  80 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68







000
FXUS64 KBRO 192045
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
245 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WINDS...ALBEIT
LIGHT...SHOULD BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE GULF. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
TO MODERATE AS THE PRESSURE DROPS UPSTREAM AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN IN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AT NIGHT AND SCATTERED
THURSDAY AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAINTAINS SOME INFLUENCE ON NORTH
WARD MVG MOISTURE. ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
MAY OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAIN ITEM OF FOCUS IN THE LONG
TERM IS A VIGOROUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PASSING CLOSE
TO THE REGION AND ITS ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THIS TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE LOW LAYER PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
LOCALLY. CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS COASTAL/CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF AS MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WORKS OVER THE
LAND/SEA THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST. WIND SPEEDS MAY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE DAY
ON SATURDAY WITH 925/850MB WINDS AROUND 40 TO 45KTS. ALSO WARMED
TEMPERATURES A TOUCH FURTHER GIVEN STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE AT THE SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY 700 TO
800MB WINDS WILL LIKELY BE DOWNSLOPING OFF OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU TO
STRENGTHEN CAPPING IN THAT LAYER DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LOW LAYER
MOISTURE. KEPT PRECIP CHANCES MORE MEASURED DUE TO THE EXPECTATION
THIS CAPPING WILL DEVELOP AND BE STRONGER THAN GFS40/NAM12
PROJECTIONS CURRENTLY INDICATE. ANALOGS TO THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TYPICALLY PRODUCE LITTLE CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL AN
ACTUAL FRONT ARRIVES AND MOVES INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST.
THE DRYLINE/FRONT ARRIVES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD OFF THE COAST. KEPT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES EAST OF HIGHWAY
77 AND ENDED THEM SHORTLY AFTER DARK. 12Z ECMWF PAINTS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF POSTFRONTAL PRECIP BUT THIS SEEMS PRETTY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE DEEP
DRY AIR SWEEPING IN ON SFC-500MB WESTERLIES BEHIND THE FRONT.
THINKING FOR NOW IS A HIGHLY CONDITIONAL WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. SHEAR/FORCING AND TO SOME EXTENT INSTABILITY
WOULD FAVOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IF CONVECTION OCCURS BUT CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR MUCH CONCERN AT THE MOMENT.

BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH A SURGE OF 25 TO 35 KNOT WINDS PUSHING
INTO THE GULF ON MONDAY. ECMWF KEEPS MORE SOUTHERLY RIDGING STRONGER
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SEEMS TOO WEAK. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOWED SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE FINAL SOLUTION AS WELL. THE
SYNOPTIC PICTURE SHOWS INCREASING PLAINS CONVERGENCE IN BOTH
GFS/ECMWF WHICH WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME REINFORCING SURGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE/STRONG GULF WINDS. SO FOR THE FORECAST WENT WITH A
REINFORCING SURGE OF DRIER WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH BUT MORE MEASURED
THAN THE GFS SURGE OF 20 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH PRESSURE FALLS
DEVELOPING OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING OVER THAT AREA. THE
SURFACE INTERACTION WILL STRENGTHEN SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THURSDAY
AND SEAS WILL BUILD. MARGINAL TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FUNNELS NORTH
ALONG A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE ON SUNDAY BEFORE A REINFORCING SHOT OF
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES WIND SPEEDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE FRIDAY AND
LIKELY SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  63  76  68  82 /  10  30  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          62  77  66  82 /  10  30  20  20
HARLINGEN            60  77  64  82 /  10  30  20  20
MCALLEN              60  77  64  83 /  10  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      59  76  62  82 /  10  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   67  75  70  80 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68






000
FXUS64 KBRO 191739 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1139 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A RETURN OF STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BACK OVER THE LOWER VALLEY TONIGHT. TEMPS
WILL WARM QUITE A BIT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AS WELL...JUMPING A HALF INCH OF PWAT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLAY ABOVE ABOUT 800 MB...BUT A
NARROW PROFILE BETWEEN ABOUT 950 AND 800 MB WILL MEAN SCT TO OVC
CEILINGS. THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CIGS JUST ABV 3 KFT...OR VFR...
AND WILL USE THAT FOR THE TAFS...BUT LOWER CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ISLD TO LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT NEAR THE COAST...AND
SOME COULD SPREAD INLAND ON THURSDAY BUT THE RAIN SHOULD NOT...IN
GENERAL...HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL IMPACT ON THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CLOUD DECK RUNS ABOUT 5000 THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD. CLOUDS WILL BREAK SOMEWHAT
LATER TODAY...BUT CLOUD LAYER WILL GENERALLY HOLD STEADY AROUND
5000 FEET. CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 3000. WINDS TODAY
WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY NOON.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WINDS WILL LOWER TO NEAR CALM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
DISSIPATES TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFT MORE WESTERLY. MINIMAL TO
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY GENERATE
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST TODAY...BUT WILL MINIMALLY
AFFECT THE REGION. SELY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL HELP CONTINUE THE WAA
INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 60S. LITTLE CHANGE
IN LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS LOWS SHOULD ONLY FALL ABOUT 10
DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. TEMPERATURE IMPROVEMENTS CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE LATEST
EXTENDED IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL
TRENDS REMAIN IN GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EVENTUALLY CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY. SOUTH TEXAS WILL SEE A MORE TYPICAL FALL PATTERN WITH
A MODERATE SWING IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...FLAT RIDGE AND ZONAL FLOW
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST AS A POTENT LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/TEXAS SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET WITH MODEST BUT NOT OVERLY DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA. LIMITED FORCING TO KEEP POPS AT BAY WITH NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MOST OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY. MODEL TRENDS KEEP THE STRONGEST VORTICITY AND
DIFFLUENCE FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
LINE OF STORMS FORMING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OR A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DECENT SPEED SHEAR.
FORECAST SOUNDING DICTATE WEAK CAPPING THROUGH NOON THEN
STRENGTHEN CAPPING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS A WARMING
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS RIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN BOTH
ELEMENTS. TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY REACH NORMALS FRIDAY AND GO
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW ALSO WILL SO A MUCH WARMER
TREND AS HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY WITH A DRY WARMING SURFACE
WEST TO NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A MODEST PACIFIC FRONT AND A COOLER NORTH WIND. NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE SHOVES ALL AVAILABLE
MOISTURE TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONSIST OF WARM TO MILD
DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. SUNDAY STARTS RATHER WARM AHEAD OF MONDAY`S
FRONT WITH LATEST BLEND OF MODELS INDICATING ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT A STEADY
COOLING OF HIGHS AND A MORE RAPIDLY FALL IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IS
ADVERTISED.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
EXPIRING WITH THE NEXT UPDATE AS WINDS HAVE LOWERED WELL BELOW
CRITERIA AND SEAS HAVE RELAXED THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS
REESTABLISH TODAY...REMAINING AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO 3 TO 4 FEET. INCREASED SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S...SOME SEAS FOG ISSUES MAY DEVELOP
THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEEPENS OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS STRENGTHEN THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT PEAKS WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID
LEVEL UPPER TROUGH. WINDS REMAIN STRONG INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THEN BEGIN TO RELAX SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY REMAIN IN TACT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68







000
FXUS64 KBRO 191739 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1139 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A RETURN OF STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BACK OVER THE LOWER VALLEY TONIGHT. TEMPS
WILL WARM QUITE A BIT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AS WELL...JUMPING A HALF INCH OF PWAT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLAY ABOVE ABOUT 800 MB...BUT A
NARROW PROFILE BETWEEN ABOUT 950 AND 800 MB WILL MEAN SCT TO OVC
CEILINGS. THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CIGS JUST ABV 3 KFT...OR VFR...
AND WILL USE THAT FOR THE TAFS...BUT LOWER CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ISLD TO LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT NEAR THE COAST...AND
SOME COULD SPREAD INLAND ON THURSDAY BUT THE RAIN SHOULD NOT...IN
GENERAL...HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL IMPACT ON THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CLOUD DECK RUNS ABOUT 5000 THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD. CLOUDS WILL BREAK SOMEWHAT
LATER TODAY...BUT CLOUD LAYER WILL GENERALLY HOLD STEADY AROUND
5000 FEET. CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 3000. WINDS TODAY
WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY NOON.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WINDS WILL LOWER TO NEAR CALM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
DISSIPATES TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFT MORE WESTERLY. MINIMAL TO
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY GENERATE
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST TODAY...BUT WILL MINIMALLY
AFFECT THE REGION. SELY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL HELP CONTINUE THE WAA
INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 60S. LITTLE CHANGE
IN LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS LOWS SHOULD ONLY FALL ABOUT 10
DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. TEMPERATURE IMPROVEMENTS CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE LATEST
EXTENDED IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL
TRENDS REMAIN IN GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EVENTUALLY CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY. SOUTH TEXAS WILL SEE A MORE TYPICAL FALL PATTERN WITH
A MODERATE SWING IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...FLAT RIDGE AND ZONAL FLOW
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST AS A POTENT LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/TEXAS SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET WITH MODEST BUT NOT OVERLY DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA. LIMITED FORCING TO KEEP POPS AT BAY WITH NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MOST OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY. MODEL TRENDS KEEP THE STRONGEST VORTICITY AND
DIFFLUENCE FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
LINE OF STORMS FORMING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OR A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DECENT SPEED SHEAR.
FORECAST SOUNDING DICTATE WEAK CAPPING THROUGH NOON THEN
STRENGTHEN CAPPING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS A WARMING
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS RIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN BOTH
ELEMENTS. TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY REACH NORMALS FRIDAY AND GO
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW ALSO WILL SO A MUCH WARMER
TREND AS HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY WITH A DRY WARMING SURFACE
WEST TO NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A MODEST PACIFIC FRONT AND A COOLER NORTH WIND. NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE SHOVES ALL AVAILABLE
MOISTURE TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONSIST OF WARM TO MILD
DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. SUNDAY STARTS RATHER WARM AHEAD OF MONDAY`S
FRONT WITH LATEST BLEND OF MODELS INDICATING ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT A STEADY
COOLING OF HIGHS AND A MORE RAPIDLY FALL IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IS
ADVERTISED.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
EXPIRING WITH THE NEXT UPDATE AS WINDS HAVE LOWERED WELL BELOW
CRITERIA AND SEAS HAVE RELAXED THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS
REESTABLISH TODAY...REMAINING AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO 3 TO 4 FEET. INCREASED SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S...SOME SEAS FOG ISSUES MAY DEVELOP
THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEEPENS OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS STRENGTHEN THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT PEAKS WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID
LEVEL UPPER TROUGH. WINDS REMAIN STRONG INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THEN BEGIN TO RELAX SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY REMAIN IN TACT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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