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000
FXUS64 KBRO 280526 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1126 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
BEGINNING AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING. CEILINGS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS...
MAINLY TO REMOVE THE THICK CIRRUS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AND IMPROVE THE VISIBILITY FOR OVERNIGHT FOG. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THAT WILL BECOME
BREEZY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. VFR
IS FULLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BIT OF HIGH CIRRUS IS APPROACHING
FROM OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND WILL INCREASE OVER THE CURRENTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S...JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...AND LIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM AROUND 75 TO
80...SUPPORTING A CHAMBER OF COMMERCE TYPE WEATHER DAY. LIGHT
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BRING A BIT OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING INCREASED LOW
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL BE AROUND 55 TO 60...ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL STILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO WHERE LIGHT
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAYS/...
WEAK FRONT ON FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO WEEKEND WARMUP THEN ANOTHER
STRONGER FRONT SUNDAY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES LOOK SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
TEXAS THURSDAY KEEPING MID AND LOWER LEVELS DRY WITH MODEST EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THURSDAY LOOKS WARM WITH JUST A BIT OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL STRETCH CLOSE TO 80
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE INCREASING PLAINS CONVERGENCE SENDS A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A BIT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO OVERRUN THE FRONTAL SLOPE AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND A BETTER SHOT AT FAIRLY THICK
CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES FROM
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY...WITH ABOUT HALF OF THAT FROM INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE OTHER HALF FROM VERY MODEST SURFACE COLD ADVECTION.

A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WORKS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US
LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND LOWERING PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
RESULTS IN SURFACE WINDS LOCALLY SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS INCREASED SOUTHEAST FLOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
DEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY SPARK A SHOWER OR TWO
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. KEPT THE RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE
MORE MEASURED ON SATURDAY THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW LIKELY CAPPING CONVECTION AND DRYING
THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN THAT FORM IN STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION...WITH THOSE STRONGER AREAS OF WAA EXPECTED TO BE FEW AND
FAR BETWEEN. ADDITIONALLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL DCVA REMAINS FOCUSED
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

DID GO WITH A LITTLE HIGHER POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A
LITTLE BETTER 850-700MB CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWERS AS A TROUGH AXIS IN
THIS REGION PASSES THROUGH. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE LIGHT THOUGH
AS REGION LIES DIRECTLY UNDER THE JET MAX CORE BY THIS POINT WITH NO
REAL DEEP LAYER LIFTING EXCEPT FOR MODEST 850-700MB CONVERGENCE.
THAT CONVERGENCE DECREASES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND TAILED POPS
DOWN AS A RESULT.

DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT DEVELOP AT THIS
POINT PRIMARILY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO THE
WEST. THE ECMWF IS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE TWO SWEEPING A SYSTEM
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A LAGGING LOW BACK TO THE
WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS FAVOR THE
LAGGING GFS AND THE OVERALL JET PATTERN SUPPORTS A LESS PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS SLOW AS THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH A SWEEPING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BUT SENSIBLE
WEATHER TIMING IS REASONABLY CLOSE FOR NOW AND CONTINUED A FAIRLY
ROBUST FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY EVENING WITH ABOUT A 15 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DROP FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS TO MONDAYS HIGHS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME OVERRUNNING/PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN LOW
CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND KEPT LOW GRADE RAIN/SHOWER
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT TIME. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MODERATE EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING WITH WINDS POSSIBLY BRIEFLY REACHING
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A SLACKENING
OF WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY BEHIND THIS FRONT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

66




000
FXUS64 KBRO 280526 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1126 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
BEGINNING AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING. CEILINGS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS...
MAINLY TO REMOVE THE THICK CIRRUS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AND IMPROVE THE VISIBILITY FOR OVERNIGHT FOG. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THAT WILL BECOME
BREEZY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. VFR
IS FULLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BIT OF HIGH CIRRUS IS APPROACHING
FROM OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND WILL INCREASE OVER THE CURRENTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S...JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...AND LIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM AROUND 75 TO
80...SUPPORTING A CHAMBER OF COMMERCE TYPE WEATHER DAY. LIGHT
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BRING A BIT OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING INCREASED LOW
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL BE AROUND 55 TO 60...ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL STILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO WHERE LIGHT
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAYS/...
WEAK FRONT ON FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO WEEKEND WARMUP THEN ANOTHER
STRONGER FRONT SUNDAY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES LOOK SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
TEXAS THURSDAY KEEPING MID AND LOWER LEVELS DRY WITH MODEST EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THURSDAY LOOKS WARM WITH JUST A BIT OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL STRETCH CLOSE TO 80
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE INCREASING PLAINS CONVERGENCE SENDS A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A BIT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO OVERRUN THE FRONTAL SLOPE AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND A BETTER SHOT AT FAIRLY THICK
CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES FROM
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY...WITH ABOUT HALF OF THAT FROM INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE OTHER HALF FROM VERY MODEST SURFACE COLD ADVECTION.

A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WORKS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US
LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND LOWERING PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
RESULTS IN SURFACE WINDS LOCALLY SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS INCREASED SOUTHEAST FLOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
DEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY SPARK A SHOWER OR TWO
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. KEPT THE RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE
MORE MEASURED ON SATURDAY THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW LIKELY CAPPING CONVECTION AND DRYING
THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN THAT FORM IN STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION...WITH THOSE STRONGER AREAS OF WAA EXPECTED TO BE FEW AND
FAR BETWEEN. ADDITIONALLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL DCVA REMAINS FOCUSED
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

DID GO WITH A LITTLE HIGHER POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A
LITTLE BETTER 850-700MB CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWERS AS A TROUGH AXIS IN
THIS REGION PASSES THROUGH. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE LIGHT THOUGH
AS REGION LIES DIRECTLY UNDER THE JET MAX CORE BY THIS POINT WITH NO
REAL DEEP LAYER LIFTING EXCEPT FOR MODEST 850-700MB CONVERGENCE.
THAT CONVERGENCE DECREASES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND TAILED POPS
DOWN AS A RESULT.

DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT DEVELOP AT THIS
POINT PRIMARILY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO THE
WEST. THE ECMWF IS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE TWO SWEEPING A SYSTEM
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A LAGGING LOW BACK TO THE
WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS FAVOR THE
LAGGING GFS AND THE OVERALL JET PATTERN SUPPORTS A LESS PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS SLOW AS THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH A SWEEPING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BUT SENSIBLE
WEATHER TIMING IS REASONABLY CLOSE FOR NOW AND CONTINUED A FAIRLY
ROBUST FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY EVENING WITH ABOUT A 15 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DROP FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS TO MONDAYS HIGHS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME OVERRUNNING/PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN LOW
CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND KEPT LOW GRADE RAIN/SHOWER
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT TIME. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MODERATE EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING WITH WINDS POSSIBLY BRIEFLY REACHING
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A SLACKENING
OF WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY BEHIND THIS FRONT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

66





000
FXUS64 KBRO 272330 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
530 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS...
MAINLY TO REMOVE THE THICK CIRRUS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AND IMPROVE THE VISIBILITY FOR OVERNIGHT FOG. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THAT WILL BECOME
BREEZY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. VFR
IS FULLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BIT OF HIGH CIRRUS IS APPROACHING
FROM OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND WILL INCREASE OVER THE CURRENTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S...JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...AND LIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM AROUND 75 TO
80...SUPPORTING A CHAMBER OF COMMERCE TYPE WEATHER DAY. LIGHT SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BRING A BIT OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL
BE AROUND 55 TO 60...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL STILL
BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO WHERE LIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK FRONT ON FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO WEEKEND WARMUP THEN ANOTHER
STRONGER FRONT SUNDAY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES LOOK SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
TEXAS THURSDAY KEEPING MID AND LOWER LEVELS DRY WITH MODEST EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THURSDAY LOOKS WARM WITH JUST A BIT OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL STRETCH CLOSE TO 80
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE INCREASING PLAINS CONVERGENCE SENDS A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A BIT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO OVERRUN THE FRONTAL SLOPE AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND A BETTER SHOT AT FAIRLY THICK
CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES FROM
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY...WITH ABOUT HALF OF THAT FROM INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE OTHER HALF FROM VERY MODEST SURFACE COLD ADVECTION.

A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WORKS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US
LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND LOWERING PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
RESULTS IN SURFACE WINDS LOCALLY SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS INCREASED SOUTHEAST FLOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
DEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY SPARK A SHOWER OR TWO
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. KEPT THE RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE
MORE MEASURED ON SATURDAY THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW LIKELY CAPPING CONVECTION AND DRYING
THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN THAT FORM IN STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION...WITH THOSE STRONGER AREAS OF WAA EXPECTED TO BE FEW AND
FAR BETWEEN. ADDITIONALLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL DCVA REMAINS FOCUSED
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

DID GO WITH A LITTLE HIGHER POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A
LITTLE BETTER 850-700MB CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWERS AS A TROUGH AXIS IN
THIS REGION PASSES THROUGH. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE LIGHT THOUGH
AS REGION LIES DIRECTLY UNDER THE JET MAX CORE BY THIS POINT WITH NO
REAL DEEP LAYER LIFTING EXCEPT FOR MODEST 850-700MB CONVERGENCE.
THAT CONVERGENCE DECREASES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND TAILED POPS
DOWN AS A RESULT.

DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT DEVELOP AT THIS
POINT PRIMARILY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO THE
WEST. THE ECMWF IS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE TWO SWEEPING A SYSTEM
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A LAGGING LOW BACK TO THE
WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS FAVOR THE
LAGGING GFS AND THE OVERALL JET PATTERN SUPPORTS A LESS PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS SLOW AS THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH A SWEEPING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BUT SENSIBLE
WEATHER TIMING IS REASONABLY CLOSE FOR NOW AND CONTINUED A FAIRLY
ROBUST FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY EVENING WITH ABOUT A 15 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DROP FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS TO MONDAYS HIGHS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME OVERRUNNING/PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN LOW
CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND KEPT LOW GRADE RAIN/SHOWER
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT TIME. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MODERATE EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING WITH WINDS POSSIBLY BRIEFLY REACHING
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A SLACKENING
OF WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV




000
FXUS64 KBRO 272330 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
530 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS...
MAINLY TO REMOVE THE THICK CIRRUS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AND IMPROVE THE VISIBILITY FOR OVERNIGHT FOG. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THAT WILL BECOME
BREEZY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. VFR
IS FULLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BIT OF HIGH CIRRUS IS APPROACHING
FROM OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND WILL INCREASE OVER THE CURRENTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S...JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...AND LIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM AROUND 75 TO
80...SUPPORTING A CHAMBER OF COMMERCE TYPE WEATHER DAY. LIGHT SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BRING A BIT OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL
BE AROUND 55 TO 60...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL STILL
BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO WHERE LIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK FRONT ON FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO WEEKEND WARMUP THEN ANOTHER
STRONGER FRONT SUNDAY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES LOOK SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
TEXAS THURSDAY KEEPING MID AND LOWER LEVELS DRY WITH MODEST EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THURSDAY LOOKS WARM WITH JUST A BIT OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL STRETCH CLOSE TO 80
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE INCREASING PLAINS CONVERGENCE SENDS A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A BIT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO OVERRUN THE FRONTAL SLOPE AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND A BETTER SHOT AT FAIRLY THICK
CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES FROM
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY...WITH ABOUT HALF OF THAT FROM INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE OTHER HALF FROM VERY MODEST SURFACE COLD ADVECTION.

A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WORKS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US
LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND LOWERING PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
RESULTS IN SURFACE WINDS LOCALLY SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS INCREASED SOUTHEAST FLOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
DEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY SPARK A SHOWER OR TWO
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. KEPT THE RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE
MORE MEASURED ON SATURDAY THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW LIKELY CAPPING CONVECTION AND DRYING
THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN THAT FORM IN STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION...WITH THOSE STRONGER AREAS OF WAA EXPECTED TO BE FEW AND
FAR BETWEEN. ADDITIONALLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL DCVA REMAINS FOCUSED
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

DID GO WITH A LITTLE HIGHER POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A
LITTLE BETTER 850-700MB CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWERS AS A TROUGH AXIS IN
THIS REGION PASSES THROUGH. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE LIGHT THOUGH
AS REGION LIES DIRECTLY UNDER THE JET MAX CORE BY THIS POINT WITH NO
REAL DEEP LAYER LIFTING EXCEPT FOR MODEST 850-700MB CONVERGENCE.
THAT CONVERGENCE DECREASES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND TAILED POPS
DOWN AS A RESULT.

DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT DEVELOP AT THIS
POINT PRIMARILY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO THE
WEST. THE ECMWF IS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE TWO SWEEPING A SYSTEM
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A LAGGING LOW BACK TO THE
WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS FAVOR THE
LAGGING GFS AND THE OVERALL JET PATTERN SUPPORTS A LESS PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS SLOW AS THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH A SWEEPING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BUT SENSIBLE
WEATHER TIMING IS REASONABLY CLOSE FOR NOW AND CONTINUED A FAIRLY
ROBUST FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY EVENING WITH ABOUT A 15 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DROP FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS TO MONDAYS HIGHS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME OVERRUNNING/PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN LOW
CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND KEPT LOW GRADE RAIN/SHOWER
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT TIME. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MODERATE EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING WITH WINDS POSSIBLY BRIEFLY REACHING
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A SLACKENING
OF WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KBRO 272046
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
246 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BIT OF HIGH CIRRUS IS APPROACHING
FROM OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND WILL INCREASE OVER THE CURRENTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S...JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...AND LIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM AROUND 75 TO
80...SUPPORTING A CHAMBER OF COMMERCE TYPE WEATHER DAY. LIGHT SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BRING A BIT OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL
BE AROUND 55 TO 60...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL STILL
BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO WHERE LIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK FRONT ON FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO WEEKEND WARMUP THEN ANOTHER
STRONGER FRONT SUNDAY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES LOOK SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
TEXAS THURSDAY KEEPING MID AND LOWER LEVELS DRY WITH MODEST EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THURSDAY LOOKS WARM WITH JUST A BIT OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL STRETCH CLOSE TO 80
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE INCREASING PLAINS CONVERGENCE SENDS A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A BIT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO OVERRUN THE FRONTAL SLOPE AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND A BETTER SHOT AT FAIRLY THICK
CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES FROM
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY...WITH ABOUT HALF OF THAT FROM INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE OTHER HALF FROM VERY MODEST SURFACE COLD ADVECTION.

A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WORKS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US
LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND LOWERING PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
RESULTS IN SURFACE WINDS LOCALLY SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS INCREASED SOUTHEAST FLOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
DEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY SPARK A SHOWER OR TWO
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. KEPT THE RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE
MORE MEASURED ON SATURDAY THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW LIKELY CAPPING CONVECTION AND DRYING
THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN THAT FORM IN STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION...WITH THOSE STRONGER AREAS OF WAA EXPECTED TO BE FEW AND
FAR BETWEEN. ADDITIONALLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL DCVA REMAINS FOCUSED
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

DID GO WITH A LITTLE HIGHER POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A
LITTLE BETTER 850-700MB CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWERS AS A TROUGH AXIS IN
THIS REGION PASSES THROUGH. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE LIGHT THOUGH
AS REGION LIES DIRECTLY UNDER THE JET MAX CORE BY THIS POINT WITH NO
REAL DEEP LAYER LIFTING EXCEPT FOR MODEST 850-700MB CONVERGENCE.
THAT CONVERGENCE DECREASES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND TAILED POPS
DOWN AS A RESULT.

DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT DEVELOP AT THIS
POINT PRIMARILY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO THE
WEST. THE ECMWF IS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE TWO SWEEPING A SYSTEM
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A LAGGING LOW BACK TO THE
WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS FAVOR THE
LAGGING GFS AND THE OVERALL JET PATTERN SUPPORTS A LESS PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS SLOW AS THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH A SWEEPING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BUT SENSIBLE
WEATHER TIMING IS REASONABLY CLOSE FOR NOW AND CONTINUED A FAIRLY
ROBUST FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY EVENING WITH ABOUT A 15 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DROP FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS TO MONDAYS HIGHS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME OVERRUNNING/PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN LOW
CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND KEPT LOW GRADE RAIN/SHOWER
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT TIME. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MODERATE EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING WITH WINDS POSSIBLY BRIEFLY REACHING
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A SLACKENING
OF WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY BEHIND THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  56  73  60  75 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          55  75  61  77 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            54  77  59  78 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              54  78  57  79 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      52  80  54  80 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND  MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68





000
FXUS64 KBRO 271746 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1146 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR REST OF TODAY. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE...WITH LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTH LATER TODAY. FEW TO
SCT HIGH CIRRUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER A DIRTY RIDGE TO THE WEST.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.
VSBY COULD BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN MORNING FOG WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAIN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
TEXAS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS
IN BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LARGE UPPER TROUGHS THAT ARE DOMINATING
BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN COASTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THE REGION A FAVORABLE AND TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER HEAD AND IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TODAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY. SURFACE
RIDGE ALSO SITS ON TOP OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOMORROW.

A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY IS ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MILD TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES RANGE 75 TO 80 DEGREES
TODAY WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AND WILL DROP OFF
STEADILY AFTER SUNSET WITH LITTLE TO NO INFLUENCE FROM THE GULF JUST
YET. TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE NICELY DROPPING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
OF 45 TO 52. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS OF THE GULF DEW POINTS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS TO REMAINS LOWER THAN NORMAL. THE INFLUX OF HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET EMANATING FROM THE
PACIFIC THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY TAKE A BREAK WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING THIS MOISTURE TRAIN TO GET SHUNTED MORE NORTH PROVIDING
THE RGV WITH MORE SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THURSDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTH TX THURS NIGHT AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
FRI MORNING BEFORE STALLING. 500MB LOW/TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S./NORTHWEST MEXICO FRIDAY AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA SATURDAY AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SURGING INTO TEXAS SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST TX SUN
MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH WARMER AND MOIST
AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE WESTERN GULF TO MAINTAIN AND LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND MOSTLY SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS TO REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT TODAY WITH A LOW SEA OF 2 FEET OR LESS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND THURS
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS SATURDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68/65





000
FXUS64 KBRO 271746 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1146 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR REST OF TODAY. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE...WITH LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTH LATER TODAY. FEW TO
SCT HIGH CIRRUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER A DIRTY RIDGE TO THE WEST.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.
VSBY COULD BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN MORNING FOG WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAIN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
TEXAS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS
IN BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LARGE UPPER TROUGHS THAT ARE DOMINATING
BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN COASTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THE REGION A FAVORABLE AND TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER HEAD AND IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TODAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY. SURFACE
RIDGE ALSO SITS ON TOP OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOMORROW.

A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY IS ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MILD TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES RANGE 75 TO 80 DEGREES
TODAY WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AND WILL DROP OFF
STEADILY AFTER SUNSET WITH LITTLE TO NO INFLUENCE FROM THE GULF JUST
YET. TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE NICELY DROPPING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
OF 45 TO 52. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS OF THE GULF DEW POINTS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS TO REMAINS LOWER THAN NORMAL. THE INFLUX OF HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET EMANATING FROM THE
PACIFIC THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY TAKE A BREAK WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING THIS MOISTURE TRAIN TO GET SHUNTED MORE NORTH PROVIDING
THE RGV WITH MORE SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THURSDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTH TX THURS NIGHT AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
FRI MORNING BEFORE STALLING. 500MB LOW/TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S./NORTHWEST MEXICO FRIDAY AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA SATURDAY AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SURGING INTO TEXAS SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST TX SUN
MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH WARMER AND MOIST
AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE WESTERN GULF TO MAINTAIN AND LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND MOSTLY SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS TO REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT TODAY WITH A LOW SEA OF 2 FEET OR LESS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND THURS
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS SATURDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68/65




000
FXUS64 KBRO 271126 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
526 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAIN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
TEXAS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS
IN BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LARGE UPPER TROUGHS THAT ARE DOMINATING
BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN COASTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THE REGION A FAVORABLE AND TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER HEAD AND IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TODAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY. SURFACE
RIDGE ALSO SITS ON TOP OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOMORROW.

A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY IS ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MILD TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES RANGE 75 TO 80 DEGREES
TODAY WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AND WILL DROP OFF
STEADILY AFTER SUNSET WITH LITTLE TO NO INFLUENCE FROM THE GULF JUST
YET. TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE NICELY DROPPING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
OF 45 TO 52. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS OF THE GULF DEW POINTS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS TO REMAINS LOWER THAN NORMAL. THE INFLUX OF HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET EMANATING FROM THE
PACIFIC THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY TAKE A BREAK WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING THIS MOISTURE TRAIN TO GET SHUNTED MORE NORTH PROVIDING
THE RGV WITH MORE SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THURSDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTH TX THURS NIGHT AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
FRI MORNING BEFORE STALLING. 500MB LOW/TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S./NORTHWEST MEXICO FRIDAY AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA SATURDAY AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SURGING INTO TEXAS SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST TX SUN
MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH WARMER AND MOIST
AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE WESTERN GULF TO MAINTAIN AND LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND MOSTLY SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS TO REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT TODAY WITH A LOW SEA OF 2 FEET OR LESS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND THURS
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS SATURDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  75  56  78  60 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          77  56  79  61 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            78  52  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              79  54  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      79  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND  MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/61




000
FXUS64 KBRO 271045
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
445 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS
IN BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LARGE UPPER TROUGHS THAT ARE DOMINATING
BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN COASTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THE REGION A FAVORABLE AND TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER HEAD AND IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TODAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY. SURFACE
RIDGE ALSO SITS ON TOP OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOMORROW.

A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY IS ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MILD TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES RANGE 75 TO 80 DEGREES
TODAY WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AND WILL DROP OFF
STEADILY AFTER SUNSET WITH LITTLE TO NO INFLUENCE FROM THE GULF JUST
YET. TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE NICELY DROPPING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
OF 45 TO 52. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS OF THE GULF DEW POINTS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS TO REMAINS LOWER THAN NORMAL. THE INFLUX OF HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET EMANATING FROM THE
PACIFIC THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY TAKE A BREAK WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING THIS MOISTURE TRAIN TO GET SHUNTED MORE NORTH PROVIDING
THE RGV WITH MORE SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THURSDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTH TX THURS NIGHT AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
FRI MORNING BEFORE STALLING. 500MB LOW/TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S./NORTHWEST MEXICO FRIDAY AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA SATURDAY AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SURGING INTO TEXAS SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST TX SUN
MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH WARMER AND MOIST
AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE WESTERN GULF TO MAINTAIN AND LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND MOSTLY SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS TO REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT TODAY WITH A LOW SEA OF 2 FEET OR LESS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND THURS
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS SATURDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  75  56  78  60 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          77  56  79  61 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            78  52  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              79  54  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      79  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND  MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/61/55





000
FXUS64 KBRO 271045
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
445 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS
IN BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LARGE UPPER TROUGHS THAT ARE DOMINATING
BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN COASTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THE REGION A FAVORABLE AND TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER HEAD AND IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TODAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY. SURFACE
RIDGE ALSO SITS ON TOP OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOMORROW.

A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY IS ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MILD TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES RANGE 75 TO 80 DEGREES
TODAY WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AND WILL DROP OFF
STEADILY AFTER SUNSET WITH LITTLE TO NO INFLUENCE FROM THE GULF JUST
YET. TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE NICELY DROPPING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
OF 45 TO 52. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS OF THE GULF DEW POINTS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS TO REMAINS LOWER THAN NORMAL. THE INFLUX OF HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET EMANATING FROM THE
PACIFIC THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY TAKE A BREAK WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING THIS MOISTURE TRAIN TO GET SHUNTED MORE NORTH PROVIDING
THE RGV WITH MORE SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THURSDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTH TX THURS NIGHT AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
FRI MORNING BEFORE STALLING. 500MB LOW/TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S./NORTHWEST MEXICO FRIDAY AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA SATURDAY AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SURGING INTO TEXAS SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST TX SUN
MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH WARMER AND MOIST
AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE WESTERN GULF TO MAINTAIN AND LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND MOSTLY SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS TO REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT TODAY WITH A LOW SEA OF 2 FEET OR LESS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND THURS
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS SATURDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  75  56  78  60 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          77  56  79  61 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            78  52  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              79  54  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      79  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND  MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/61/55




000
FXUS64 KBRO 270531 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1131 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THICK CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM OVERHEAD FROM
NEIGHBORING MEXICO...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEARBY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT HIGH MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. ANY CLOUDS
OVER THE AREA WILL BE OF THE CIRRUS VARIETY ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THUS VFR
CONTINUING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA/

SHORT TERM...
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS AS REGION WILL
BE IN BETWEEN LARGE EAST COAST TROUGH AND WESTERN TROUGH. THIS
PLACED THE REGION IN SLIGHT RIDGING PATTERN WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. WILL SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAM BY FROM TIME TO
TIME WITH NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...
A DRY FRONT WILL WORK INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...THE WEST COAST TROUGH/50H LOW WILL
PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WELL. TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF...THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WERE PLACED IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WITH GOOD
CHANCES EITHER SIDE. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO GO DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT PRECIPITATION CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CUT OFF LOW JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT AND RETURN TO THE
WEST BY EARLY TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON WAVE
HEIGHTS WITH LOW SEAS PREVAILING.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUES NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY SHOULD BACK TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL UNITED WEDNESDAY BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS THURSDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  50  74  56  75 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          49  76  56  77 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            48  77  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              50  78  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      50  79  53  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/61




000
FXUS64 KBRO 262332
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
532 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. ANY CLOUDS
OVER THE AREA WILL BE OF THE CIRRUS VARIETY ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THUS VFR
CONTINUING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA/

SHORT TERM...
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS AS REGION WILL
BE IN BETWEEN LARGE EAST COAST TROUGH AND WESTERN TROUGH. THIS
PLACED THE REGION IN SLIGHT RIDGING PATTERN WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. WILL SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAM BY FROM TIME TO
TIME WITH NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...
A DRY FRONT WILL WORK INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...THE WEST COAST TROUGH/50H LOW WILL
PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WELL. TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF...THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WERE PLACED IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WITH GOOD
CHANCES EITHER SIDE. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO GO DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT PRECIPITATION CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CUT OFF LOW JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT AND RETURN TO THE
WEST BY EARLY TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON WAVE
HEIGHTS WITH LOW SEAS PREVAILING.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUES NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY SHOULD BACK TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL UNITED WEDNESDAY BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS THURSDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF FRIDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

51/51






000
FXUS64 KBRO 262332
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
532 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. ANY CLOUDS
OVER THE AREA WILL BE OF THE CIRRUS VARIETY ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THUS VFR
CONTINUING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA/

SHORT TERM...
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS AS REGION WILL
BE IN BETWEEN LARGE EAST COAST TROUGH AND WESTERN TROUGH. THIS
PLACED THE REGION IN SLIGHT RIDGING PATTERN WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. WILL SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAM BY FROM TIME TO
TIME WITH NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...
A DRY FRONT WILL WORK INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...THE WEST COAST TROUGH/50H LOW WILL
PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WELL. TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF...THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WERE PLACED IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WITH GOOD
CHANCES EITHER SIDE. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO GO DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT PRECIPITATION CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CUT OFF LOW JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT AND RETURN TO THE
WEST BY EARLY TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON WAVE
HEIGHTS WITH LOW SEAS PREVAILING.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUES NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY SHOULD BACK TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL UNITED WEDNESDAY BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS THURSDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF FRIDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

51/51







000
FXUS64 KBRO 262107
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
307 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS AS REGION WILL
BE IN BETWEEN LARGE EAST COAST TROUGH AND WESTERN TROUGH. THIS
PLACED THE REGION IN SLIGHT RIDGING PATTERN WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. WILL SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAM BY FROM TIME TO
TIME WITH NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
A DRY FRONT WILL WORK INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...THE WEST COAST TROUGH/50H LOW WILL
PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WELL. TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF...THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WERE PLACED IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WITH GOOD
CHANCES EITHER SIDE. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO GO DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT PRECIPITATION CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CUT OFF LOW JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT AND RETURN TO THE
WEST BY EARLY TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON WAVE
HEIGHTS WITH LOW SEAS PREVAILING.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUES NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY SHOULD BACK TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL UNITED WEDNESDAY BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS THURSDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  50  74  56  76 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          50  76  56  78 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            48  78  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              49  79  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      49  79  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   53  71  59  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

27/LCH






000
FXUS64 KBRO 262107
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
307 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS AS REGION WILL
BE IN BETWEEN LARGE EAST COAST TROUGH AND WESTERN TROUGH. THIS
PLACED THE REGION IN SLIGHT RIDGING PATTERN WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. WILL SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAM BY FROM TIME TO
TIME WITH NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
A DRY FRONT WILL WORK INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...THE WEST COAST TROUGH/50H LOW WILL
PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WELL. TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF...THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WERE PLACED IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WITH GOOD
CHANCES EITHER SIDE. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO GO DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT PRECIPITATION CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CUT OFF LOW JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT AND RETURN TO THE
WEST BY EARLY TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON WAVE
HEIGHTS WITH LOW SEAS PREVAILING.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUES NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY SHOULD BACK TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL UNITED WEDNESDAY BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS THURSDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  50  74  56  76 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          50  76  56  78 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            48  78  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              49  79  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      49  79  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   53  71  59  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

27/LCH







000
FXUS64 KBRO 261508
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
908 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEED TO FORECAST TODAY. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE
ON TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION AS A
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO TAPER DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WHILE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC COAST MOVES INLAND.
THIS LOW WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO
TUES INCREASING THE MOISTURE CONTENT AND AS A RESULT INCREASE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS S TX. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN ABUNDANCE OF
HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
CLOUD DECK WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DURING THE DAY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS VEERING WINDS
SOUTHEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VALLEY WITH HIGH CLOUDS
STILL STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA AND A SLIGHT WAA INTO THE AREA
FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP LOW NEAR 50 DEGREES. RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TUES WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. LESS HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ALLOWING FOR
MORE HOURS OF SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S
WITH SOME LOCATIONS TO THE WEST REACHING THE 80S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TUESDAY WILL FLATTEN ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
U.S. WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY
AND INTO SOUTH TX FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. AS THE 500MB TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROG A 500MB LOW/TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S./NORTHWEST
MEXICO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FRIDAY SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX BRINGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SAT NIGHT AND
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A RESULT.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT AND RETURN TO THE
WEST BY EARLY TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON WAVE
HEIGHTS WITH LOW SEAS PREVAILING.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUES NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY SHOULD BACK TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL UNITED WEDNESDAY BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS THURSDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  68  50  74  56 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          71  49  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            72  48  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              74  50  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      74  50  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   67  53  70  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

51/51






000
FXUS64 KBRO 261508
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
908 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEED TO FORECAST TODAY. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE
ON TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION AS A
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO TAPER DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WHILE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC COAST MOVES INLAND.
THIS LOW WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO
TUES INCREASING THE MOISTURE CONTENT AND AS A RESULT INCREASE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS S TX. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN ABUNDANCE OF
HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
CLOUD DECK WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DURING THE DAY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS VEERING WINDS
SOUTHEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VALLEY WITH HIGH CLOUDS
STILL STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA AND A SLIGHT WAA INTO THE AREA
FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP LOW NEAR 50 DEGREES. RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TUES WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. LESS HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ALLOWING FOR
MORE HOURS OF SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S
WITH SOME LOCATIONS TO THE WEST REACHING THE 80S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TUESDAY WILL FLATTEN ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
U.S. WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY
AND INTO SOUTH TX FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. AS THE 500MB TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROG A 500MB LOW/TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S./NORTHWEST
MEXICO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FRIDAY SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX BRINGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SAT NIGHT AND
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A RESULT.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT AND RETURN TO THE
WEST BY EARLY TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON WAVE
HEIGHTS WITH LOW SEAS PREVAILING.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUES NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY SHOULD BACK TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL UNITED WEDNESDAY BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS THURSDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  68  50  74  56 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          71  49  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            72  48  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              74  50  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      74  50  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   67  53  70  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

51/51







000
FXUS64 KBRO 261115
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
515 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WHILE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC COAST MOVES INLAND.
THIS LOW WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO
TUES INCREASING THE MOISTURE CONTENT AND AS A RESULT INCREASE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS S TX. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN ABUNDANCE OF
HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
CLOUD DECK WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DURING THE DAY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS VEERING WINDS
SOUTHEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VALLEY WITH HIGH CLOUDS
STILL STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA AND A SLIGHT WAA INTO THE AREA
FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP LOW NEAR 50 DEGREES. RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TUES WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. LESS HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ALLOWING FOR
MORE HOURS OF SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S
WITH SOME LOCATIONS TO THE WEST REACHING THE 80S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TUESDAY WILL FLATTEN ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
U.S. WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY
AND INTO SOUTH TX FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. AS THE 500MB TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROG A 500MB LOW/TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S./NORTHWEST
MEXICO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FRIDAY SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX BRINGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SAT NIGHT AND
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A RESULT.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT AND RETURN TO THE
WEST BY EARLY TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON WAVE
HEIGHTS WITH LOW SEAS PREVAILING.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUES NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY SHOULD BACK TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL UNITED WEDNESDAY BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS THURSDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF FRIDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61







000
FXUS64 KBRO 261115
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
515 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WHILE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC COAST MOVES INLAND.
THIS LOW WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO
TUES INCREASING THE MOISTURE CONTENT AND AS A RESULT INCREASE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS S TX. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN ABUNDANCE OF
HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
CLOUD DECK WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DURING THE DAY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS VEERING WINDS
SOUTHEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VALLEY WITH HIGH CLOUDS
STILL STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA AND A SLIGHT WAA INTO THE AREA
FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP LOW NEAR 50 DEGREES. RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TUES WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. LESS HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ALLOWING FOR
MORE HOURS OF SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S
WITH SOME LOCATIONS TO THE WEST REACHING THE 80S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TUESDAY WILL FLATTEN ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
U.S. WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY
AND INTO SOUTH TX FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. AS THE 500MB TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROG A 500MB LOW/TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S./NORTHWEST
MEXICO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FRIDAY SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX BRINGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SAT NIGHT AND
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A RESULT.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT AND RETURN TO THE
WEST BY EARLY TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON WAVE
HEIGHTS WITH LOW SEAS PREVAILING.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUES NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY SHOULD BACK TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL UNITED WEDNESDAY BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS THURSDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF FRIDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61








000
FXUS64 KBRO 260942
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
342 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WHILE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC COAST MOVES INLAND.
THIS LOW WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO
TUES INCREASING THE MOISTURE CONTENT AND AS A RESULT INCREASE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS S TX. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN ABUNDANCE OF
HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
CLOUD DECK WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DURING THE DAY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS VEERING WINDS
SOUTHEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VALLEY WITH HIGH CLOUDS
STILL STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA AND A SLIGHT WAA INTO THE AREA
FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP LOW NEAR 50 DEGREES. RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TUES WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. LESS HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ALLOWING FOR
MORE HOURS OF SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S
WITH SOME LOCATIONS TO THE WEST REACHING THE 80S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TUESDAY WILL FLATTEN ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
U.S. WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY
AND INTO SOUTH TX FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. AS THE 500MB TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROG A 500MB LOW/TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S./NORTHWEST
MEXICO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FRIDAY SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX BRINGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SAT NIGHT AND
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A RESULT.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT AND RETURN TO THE
WEST BY EARLY TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON WAVE
HEIGHTS WITH LOW SEAS PREVAILING.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUES NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY SHOULD BACK TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL UNITED WEDNESDAY BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS THURSDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF FRIDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  68  50  74  56 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          71  49  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            72  48  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              74  50  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      74  50  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   67  53  70  59 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61






000
FXUS64 KBRO 260942
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
342 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WHILE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC COAST MOVES INLAND.
THIS LOW WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO
TUES INCREASING THE MOISTURE CONTENT AND AS A RESULT INCREASE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS S TX. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN ABUNDANCE OF
HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
CLOUD DECK WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DURING THE DAY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS VEERING WINDS
SOUTHEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VALLEY WITH HIGH CLOUDS
STILL STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA AND A SLIGHT WAA INTO THE AREA
FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP LOW NEAR 50 DEGREES. RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TUES WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. LESS HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ALLOWING FOR
MORE HOURS OF SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S
WITH SOME LOCATIONS TO THE WEST REACHING THE 80S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TUESDAY WILL FLATTEN ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
U.S. WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY
AND INTO SOUTH TX FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. AS THE 500MB TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROG A 500MB LOW/TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S./NORTHWEST
MEXICO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FRIDAY SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX BRINGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SAT NIGHT AND
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A RESULT.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT AND RETURN TO THE
WEST BY EARLY TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON WAVE
HEIGHTS WITH LOW SEAS PREVAILING.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUES NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY SHOULD BACK TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL UNITED WEDNESDAY BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS THURSDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF FRIDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  68  50  74  56 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          71  49  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            72  48  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              74  50  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      74  50  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   67  53  70  59 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61







000
FXUS64 KBRO 260514
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1114 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...HICK CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM OVERHEAD OUT OF
MEXICO...AND THIS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND NOON MONDAY...WHEN
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL BECOME MUCH MORE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEARBY WILL ENSURE LIGHT
WINDS THAT WILL VEER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR IS A SOLID BET
FROM NOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SOME UNNECESSARY REFINEMENT WAS MADE TO THE TAFS FOR
THIS CYCLE. THICK CIRRUS IS STREAMING OVERHEAD OUT OF MEXICO...AND
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL MID-DAY TOMORROW...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW OVERHEAD WILL BECOME MUCH MORE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEARBY WILL ENSURE LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL
VEER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR IS A SOLID BET FROM NOW THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
SPINNING JUST OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL COASTLINE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
(LARGELY THANKS TO THIS SYSTEM)...PROVIDING A BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

ANY CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD START TO DIMINISH...
AS THE CUT-OFF LOW STARTS MOVING NORTHWARD AND A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  RIDGING...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...IS THEN EXPECTED TO ASSERT ITSELF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  ONLY A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY MONDAY.  OVERALL THOUGH...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS OUR CORNER OF THE
WORLD...HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE RATHER TYPICAL FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO INCREASED
RIDGING ALOFT.  /BUTTS/

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
OVER TX AND THE WESTERN GULF FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURS AS STRONG
TROFFING DIGS OVER THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED
IN THE BROADER 500 MB FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL
PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURS NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. OVER THE WEST COAST...A 500 MB TROUGH THEN DIGS SLOWLY
EAST EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF OVER THE DESERT SW THIS WEEKEND. THE
PERSISTENT 500 MB TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL THEN PUSH
A STRONGER COLD THROUGH THE RGV ON SUN. AS THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW SPINS SLOWLY EASTWARDS PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AHEAD OF
THE STRONGER WEEKEND FRONT WHICH WILL ALLOW POPS TO START
INCREASING SAT AND SUN. THE INCREASING CLD COVER...POPS AND BETTER
CAA WILL START DRIVING TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
AROUND SUN.

THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS 500 MB FIELDS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE
ANTICIPATED PLACEMENT OF THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF FOR SAT AND SUN WHICH
RESULTS IN THE GFS COMING IN MUCH WETTER VERSUS THE ECWMF. ANOTHER
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO THE HIGHER GFS POPS IS THAT IT TRIES TO
SPIN UP A STRONGER COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE TX COASTLINE
FOR THIS WEEKEND VERSUS THE ECMWF. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME BETTER
CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS CONCERNING THE FORMATION OF THIS STRONGER
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH BEFORE JUMPING ON THE WETTER SOLUTION.

SO WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH DAY
7. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS
STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
FOR THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...

NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
AN SLIGHTLY INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A SOUTHWARD-MOVING
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS BEYOND 20 NMI. FROM THE COAST TONIGHT.  A FEW GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA MAY BE SEEN...BUT IN
GENERAL...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS.  THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX A BIT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING
REBUILDS OVER THE REGION.  SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD AVERAGE
AROUND 2 FT.... ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS AROUND 4 FT. MAY BEEN OVER THE FAR
OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH.  WAVE PERIODS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD HOVER BETWEEN 4 AND 5 SECONDS.  /BUTTS/

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK TO MODERATE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE TX COASTLINE FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING CWF PERIOD. HOWEVER THE WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS ON THURS WILL RAISE UP THE WINDS
AND SEAS A BIT FOR THURS AND FRI. HOWEVER NO SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61








000
FXUS64 KBRO 260514
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1114 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...HICK CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM OVERHEAD OUT OF
MEXICO...AND THIS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND NOON MONDAY...WHEN
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL BECOME MUCH MORE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEARBY WILL ENSURE LIGHT
WINDS THAT WILL VEER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR IS A SOLID BET
FROM NOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SOME UNNECESSARY REFINEMENT WAS MADE TO THE TAFS FOR
THIS CYCLE. THICK CIRRUS IS STREAMING OVERHEAD OUT OF MEXICO...AND
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL MID-DAY TOMORROW...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW OVERHEAD WILL BECOME MUCH MORE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEARBY WILL ENSURE LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL
VEER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR IS A SOLID BET FROM NOW THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
SPINNING JUST OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL COASTLINE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
(LARGELY THANKS TO THIS SYSTEM)...PROVIDING A BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

ANY CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD START TO DIMINISH...
AS THE CUT-OFF LOW STARTS MOVING NORTHWARD AND A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  RIDGING...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...IS THEN EXPECTED TO ASSERT ITSELF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  ONLY A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY MONDAY.  OVERALL THOUGH...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS OUR CORNER OF THE
WORLD...HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE RATHER TYPICAL FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO INCREASED
RIDGING ALOFT.  /BUTTS/

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
OVER TX AND THE WESTERN GULF FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURS AS STRONG
TROFFING DIGS OVER THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED
IN THE BROADER 500 MB FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL
PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURS NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. OVER THE WEST COAST...A 500 MB TROUGH THEN DIGS SLOWLY
EAST EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF OVER THE DESERT SW THIS WEEKEND. THE
PERSISTENT 500 MB TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL THEN PUSH
A STRONGER COLD THROUGH THE RGV ON SUN. AS THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW SPINS SLOWLY EASTWARDS PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AHEAD OF
THE STRONGER WEEKEND FRONT WHICH WILL ALLOW POPS TO START
INCREASING SAT AND SUN. THE INCREASING CLD COVER...POPS AND BETTER
CAA WILL START DRIVING TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
AROUND SUN.

THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS 500 MB FIELDS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE
ANTICIPATED PLACEMENT OF THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF FOR SAT AND SUN WHICH
RESULTS IN THE GFS COMING IN MUCH WETTER VERSUS THE ECWMF. ANOTHER
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO THE HIGHER GFS POPS IS THAT IT TRIES TO
SPIN UP A STRONGER COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE TX COASTLINE
FOR THIS WEEKEND VERSUS THE ECMWF. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME BETTER
CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS CONCERNING THE FORMATION OF THIS STRONGER
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH BEFORE JUMPING ON THE WETTER SOLUTION.

SO WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH DAY
7. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS
STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
FOR THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...

NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
AN SLIGHTLY INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A SOUTHWARD-MOVING
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS BEYOND 20 NMI. FROM THE COAST TONIGHT.  A FEW GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA MAY BE SEEN...BUT IN
GENERAL...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS.  THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX A BIT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING
REBUILDS OVER THE REGION.  SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD AVERAGE
AROUND 2 FT.... ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS AROUND 4 FT. MAY BEEN OVER THE FAR
OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH.  WAVE PERIODS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD HOVER BETWEEN 4 AND 5 SECONDS.  /BUTTS/

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK TO MODERATE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE TX COASTLINE FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING CWF PERIOD. HOWEVER THE WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS ON THURS WILL RAISE UP THE WINDS
AND SEAS A BIT FOR THURS AND FRI. HOWEVER NO SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61







000
FXUS64 KBRO 252330 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
530 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SOME UNNECESSARY REFINEMENT WAS MADE TO THE TAFS FOR
THIS CYCLE. THICK CIRRUS IS STREAMING OVERHEAD OUT OF MEXICO...AND
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL MID-DAY TOMORROW...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW OVERHEAD WILL BECOME MUCH MORE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEARBY WILL ENSURE LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL
VEER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR IS A SOLID BET FROM NOW THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
SPINNING JUST OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL COASTLINE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
(LARGELY THANKS TO THIS SYSTEM)...PROVIDING A BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

ANY CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD START TO DIMINISH...
AS THE CUT-OFF LOW STARTS MOVING NORTHWARD AND A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  RIDGING...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...IS THEN EXPECTED TO ASSERT ITSELF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  ONLY A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY MONDAY.  OVERALL THOUGH...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS OUR CORNER OF THE
WORLD...HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE RATHER TYPICAL FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO INCREASED
RIDGING ALOFT.  /BUTTS/

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
OVER TX AND THE WESTERN GULF FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURS AS STRONG
TROFFING DIGS OVER THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED
IN THE BROADER 500 MB FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL
PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURS NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. OVER THE WEST COAST...A 500 MB TROUGH THEN DIGS SLOWLY
EAST EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF OVER THE DESERT SW THIS WEEKEND. THE
PERSISTENT 500 MB TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL THEN PUSH
A STRONGER COLD THROUGH THE RGV ON SUN. AS THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW SPINS SLOWLY EASTWARDS PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AHEAD OF
THE STRONGER WEEKEND FRONT WHICH WILL ALLOW POPS TO START
INCREASING SAT AND SUN. THE INCREASING CLD COVER...POPS AND BETTER
CAA WILL START DRIVING TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
AROUND SUN.

THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS 500 MB FIELDS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE
ANTICIPATED PLACEMENT OF THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF FOR SAT AND SUN WHICH
RESULTS IN THE GFS COMING IN MUCH WETTER VERSUS THE ECWMF. ANOTHER
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO THE HIGHER GFS POPS IS THAT IT TRIES TO
SPIN UP A STRONGER COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE TX COASTLINE
FOR THIS WEEKEND VERSUS THE ECMWF. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME BETTER
CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS CONCERNING THE FORMATION OF THIS STRONGER
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH BEFORE JUMPING ON THE WETTER SOLUTION.

SO WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH DAY
7. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS
STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
FOR THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...

NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
AN SLIGHTLY INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A SOUTHWARD-MOVING
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS BEYOND 20 NMI. FROM THE COAST TONIGHT.  A FEW GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA MAY BE SEEN...BUT IN
GENERAL...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS.  THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX A BIT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING
REBUILDS OVER THE REGION.  SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD AVERAGE
AROUND 2 FT.... ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS AROUND 4 FT. MAY BEEN OVER THE FAR
OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH.  WAVE PERIODS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD HOVER BETWEEN 4 AND 5 SECONDS.  /BUTTS/

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK TO MODERATE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE TX COASTLINE FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING CWF PERIOD. HOWEVER THE WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS ON THURS WILL RAISE UP THE WINDS
AND SEAS A BIT FOR THURS AND FRI. HOWEVER NO SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KBRO 252330 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
530 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SOME UNNECESSARY REFINEMENT WAS MADE TO THE TAFS FOR
THIS CYCLE. THICK CIRRUS IS STREAMING OVERHEAD OUT OF MEXICO...AND
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL MID-DAY TOMORROW...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW OVERHEAD WILL BECOME MUCH MORE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEARBY WILL ENSURE LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL
VEER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR IS A SOLID BET FROM NOW THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
SPINNING JUST OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL COASTLINE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
(LARGELY THANKS TO THIS SYSTEM)...PROVIDING A BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

ANY CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD START TO DIMINISH...
AS THE CUT-OFF LOW STARTS MOVING NORTHWARD AND A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  RIDGING...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...IS THEN EXPECTED TO ASSERT ITSELF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  ONLY A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY MONDAY.  OVERALL THOUGH...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS OUR CORNER OF THE
WORLD...HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE RATHER TYPICAL FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO INCREASED
RIDGING ALOFT.  /BUTTS/

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
OVER TX AND THE WESTERN GULF FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURS AS STRONG
TROFFING DIGS OVER THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED
IN THE BROADER 500 MB FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL
PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURS NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. OVER THE WEST COAST...A 500 MB TROUGH THEN DIGS SLOWLY
EAST EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF OVER THE DESERT SW THIS WEEKEND. THE
PERSISTENT 500 MB TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL THEN PUSH
A STRONGER COLD THROUGH THE RGV ON SUN. AS THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW SPINS SLOWLY EASTWARDS PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AHEAD OF
THE STRONGER WEEKEND FRONT WHICH WILL ALLOW POPS TO START
INCREASING SAT AND SUN. THE INCREASING CLD COVER...POPS AND BETTER
CAA WILL START DRIVING TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
AROUND SUN.

THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS 500 MB FIELDS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE
ANTICIPATED PLACEMENT OF THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF FOR SAT AND SUN WHICH
RESULTS IN THE GFS COMING IN MUCH WETTER VERSUS THE ECWMF. ANOTHER
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO THE HIGHER GFS POPS IS THAT IT TRIES TO
SPIN UP A STRONGER COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE TX COASTLINE
FOR THIS WEEKEND VERSUS THE ECMWF. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME BETTER
CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS CONCERNING THE FORMATION OF THIS STRONGER
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH BEFORE JUMPING ON THE WETTER SOLUTION.

SO WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH DAY
7. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS
STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
FOR THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...

NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
AN SLIGHTLY INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A SOUTHWARD-MOVING
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS BEYOND 20 NMI. FROM THE COAST TONIGHT.  A FEW GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA MAY BE SEEN...BUT IN
GENERAL...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS.  THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX A BIT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING
REBUILDS OVER THE REGION.  SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD AVERAGE
AROUND 2 FT.... ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS AROUND 4 FT. MAY BEEN OVER THE FAR
OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH.  WAVE PERIODS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD HOVER BETWEEN 4 AND 5 SECONDS.  /BUTTS/

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK TO MODERATE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE TX COASTLINE FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING CWF PERIOD. HOWEVER THE WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS ON THURS WILL RAISE UP THE WINDS
AND SEAS A BIT FOR THURS AND FRI. HOWEVER NO SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV






000
FXUS64 KBRO 252118
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
318 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
SPINNING JUST OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL COASTLINE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
(LARGELY THANKS TO THIS SYSTEM)...PROVIDING A BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

ANY CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD START TO DIMINISH...
AS THE CUT-OFF LOW STARTS MOVING NORTHWARD AND A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  RIDGING...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...IS THEN EXPECTED TO ASSERT ITSELF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  ONLY A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY MONDAY.  OVERALL THOUGH...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS OUR CORNER OF THE
WORLD...HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE RATHER TYPICAL FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO INCREASED
RIDGING ALOFT.  /BUTTS/

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
OVER TX AND THE WESTERN GULF FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURS AS STRONG
TROFFING DIGS OVER THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED
IN THE BROADER 500 MB FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL
PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURS NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. OVER THE WEST COAST...A 500 MB TROUGH THEN DIGS SLOWLY
EAST EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF OVER THE DESERT SW THIS WEEKEND. THE
PERSISTENT 500 MB TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL THEN PUSH
A STRONGER COLD THROUGH THE RGV ON SUN. AS THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW SPINS SLOWLY EASTWARDS PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AHEAD OF
THE STRONGER WEEKEND FRONT WHICH WILL ALLOW POPS TO START
INCREASING SAT AND SUN. THE INCREASING CLD COVER...POPS AND BETTER
CAA WILL START DRIVING TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
AROUND SUN.

THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS 500 MB FIELDS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE
ANTICIPATED PLACEMENT OF THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF FOR SAT AND SUN WHICH
RESULTS IN THE GFS COMING IN MUCH WETTER VERSUS THE ECWMF. ANOTHER
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO THE HIGHER GFS POPS IS THAT IT TRIES TO
SPIN UP A STRONGER COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE TX COASTLINE
FOR THIS WEEKEND VERSUS THE ECMWF. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME BETTER
CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS CONCERNING THE FORMATION OF THIS STRONGER
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH BEFORE JUMPING ON THE WETTER SOLUTION.

SO WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH DAY
7. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS
STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
AN SLIGHTLY INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A SOUTHWARD-MOVING
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS BEYOND 20 NMI. FROM THE COAST TONIGHT.  A FEW GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA MAY BE SEEN...BUT IN
GENERAL...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS.  THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX A BIT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING
REBUILDS OVER THE REGION.  SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD AVERAGE
AROUND 2 FT.... ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS AROUND 4 FT. MAY BEEN OVER THE FAR
OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH.  WAVE PERIODS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD HOVER BETWEEN 4 AND 5 SECONDS.  /BUTTS/

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK TO MODERATE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE TX COASTLINE FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING CWF PERIOD. HOWEVER THE WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS ON THURS WILL RAISE UP THE WINDS
AND SEAS A BIT FOR THURS AND FRI. HOWEVER NO SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  48  68  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          47  70  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            46  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              47  72  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      45  73  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   52  67  52  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...58







000
FXUS64 KBRO 252118
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
318 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
SPINNING JUST OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL COASTLINE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
(LARGELY THANKS TO THIS SYSTEM)...PROVIDING A BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

ANY CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD START TO DIMINISH...
AS THE CUT-OFF LOW STARTS MOVING NORTHWARD AND A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  RIDGING...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...IS THEN EXPECTED TO ASSERT ITSELF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  ONLY A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY MONDAY.  OVERALL THOUGH...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS OUR CORNER OF THE
WORLD...HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE RATHER TYPICAL FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO INCREASED
RIDGING ALOFT.  /BUTTS/

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
OVER TX AND THE WESTERN GULF FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURS AS STRONG
TROFFING DIGS OVER THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED
IN THE BROADER 500 MB FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL
PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURS NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. OVER THE WEST COAST...A 500 MB TROUGH THEN DIGS SLOWLY
EAST EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF OVER THE DESERT SW THIS WEEKEND. THE
PERSISTENT 500 MB TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL THEN PUSH
A STRONGER COLD THROUGH THE RGV ON SUN. AS THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW SPINS SLOWLY EASTWARDS PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AHEAD OF
THE STRONGER WEEKEND FRONT WHICH WILL ALLOW POPS TO START
INCREASING SAT AND SUN. THE INCREASING CLD COVER...POPS AND BETTER
CAA WILL START DRIVING TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
AROUND SUN.

THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS 500 MB FIELDS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE
ANTICIPATED PLACEMENT OF THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF FOR SAT AND SUN WHICH
RESULTS IN THE GFS COMING IN MUCH WETTER VERSUS THE ECWMF. ANOTHER
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO THE HIGHER GFS POPS IS THAT IT TRIES TO
SPIN UP A STRONGER COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE TX COASTLINE
FOR THIS WEEKEND VERSUS THE ECMWF. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME BETTER
CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS CONCERNING THE FORMATION OF THIS STRONGER
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH BEFORE JUMPING ON THE WETTER SOLUTION.

SO WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH DAY
7. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS
STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
AN SLIGHTLY INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A SOUTHWARD-MOVING
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS BEYOND 20 NMI. FROM THE COAST TONIGHT.  A FEW GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA MAY BE SEEN...BUT IN
GENERAL...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS.  THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX A BIT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING
REBUILDS OVER THE REGION.  SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD AVERAGE
AROUND 2 FT.... ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS AROUND 4 FT. MAY BEEN OVER THE FAR
OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH.  WAVE PERIODS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD HOVER BETWEEN 4 AND 5 SECONDS.  /BUTTS/

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK TO MODERATE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE TX COASTLINE FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING CWF PERIOD. HOWEVER THE WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS ON THURS WILL RAISE UP THE WINDS
AND SEAS A BIT FOR THURS AND FRI. HOWEVER NO SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  48  68  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          47  70  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            46  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              47  72  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      45  73  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   52  67  52  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...58






000
FXUS64 KBRO 251732 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1132 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. /53/

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH
26/1800 UTC.  A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW...SPINNING JUST W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BRINGING AC/CS INTO THE REGION...
WITH ANY CIGS AT OR ABOVE 150.  SW-W WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE NW-N
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
MOST WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KTS. OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/53/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE UPPER LEVELS
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS S TX
PRODUCING BROKEN TO OCCASIONALLY OVC CIG AOB 20K FEET. WINDS
SHIFT NORTHERLY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AS REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE CWA. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE AN UPPER LOW REMAINS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER
THE BAJA CA COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STREAM FEW TO SCT
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE
TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
CWA. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
RELAX. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH RETURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY AND THICKNESS VALUES GRADUALLY LOWER A BIT MORE.
HOWEVER...THE WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE THE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT VARY
MUCH. LOW TEMPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY. THE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY
BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TX THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTH TX
THURS NIGHT. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO WEST TX FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GLOBAL MODELS PROG A 500MB TROUGH/LOW
IN THE VICINITY OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGS
PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE STATE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
MORE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
SOUTH TEXAS BUT REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION LIMITING ANY RAINFALL CHANGES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REINFORCING TOWARDS THE SOUTH EARLY
MONDAY WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE WINDS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS
BUT QUICKLY LOWER BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS UP
4 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
LONG TERM FORECASTER... SPEECE
PSU... SCHOLL






000
FXUS64 KBRO 251732 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1132 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. /53/

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH
26/1800 UTC.  A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW...SPINNING JUST W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BRINGING AC/CS INTO THE REGION...
WITH ANY CIGS AT OR ABOVE 150.  SW-W WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE NW-N
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
MOST WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KTS. OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/53/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE UPPER LEVELS
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS S TX
PRODUCING BROKEN TO OCCASIONALLY OVC CIG AOB 20K FEET. WINDS
SHIFT NORTHERLY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AS REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE CWA. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE AN UPPER LOW REMAINS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER
THE BAJA CA COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STREAM FEW TO SCT
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE
TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
CWA. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
RELAX. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH RETURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY AND THICKNESS VALUES GRADUALLY LOWER A BIT MORE.
HOWEVER...THE WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE THE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT VARY
MUCH. LOW TEMPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY. THE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY
BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TX THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTH TX
THURS NIGHT. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO WEST TX FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GLOBAL MODELS PROG A 500MB TROUGH/LOW
IN THE VICINITY OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGS
PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE STATE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
MORE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
SOUTH TEXAS BUT REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION LIMITING ANY RAINFALL CHANGES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REINFORCING TOWARDS THE SOUTH EARLY
MONDAY WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE WINDS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS
BUT QUICKLY LOWER BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS UP
4 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
LONG TERM FORECASTER... SPEECE
PSU... SCHOLL







000
FXUS64 KBRO 251132
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
532 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE UPPER LEVELS
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS S TX
PRODUCING BROKEN TO OCCASIONALLY OVC CIG AOB 20K FEET. WINDS
SHIFT NORTHERLY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AS REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE CWA. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE AN UPPER LOW REMAINS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER
THE BAJA CA COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STREAM FEW TO SCT
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE
TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
CWA. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
RELAX. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH RETURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY AND THICKNESS VALUES GRADUALLY LOWER A BIT MORE.
HOWEVER...THE WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE THE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT VARY
MUCH. LOW TEMPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY. THE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY
BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TX THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTH TX
THURS NIGHT. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO WEST TX FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GLOBAL MODELS PROG A 500MB TROUGH/LOW
IN THE VICINITY OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGS
PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE STATE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
MORE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
SOUTH TEXAS BUT REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION LIMITING ANY RAINFALL CHANGES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REINFORCING TOWARDS THE SOUTH EARLY
MONDAY WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE WINDS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS
BUT QUICKLY LOWER BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS UP
4 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61








000
FXUS64 KBRO 251132
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
532 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE UPPER LEVELS
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS S TX
PRODUCING BROKEN TO OCCASIONALLY OVC CIG AOB 20K FEET. WINDS
SHIFT NORTHERLY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AS REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE CWA. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE AN UPPER LOW REMAINS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER
THE BAJA CA COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STREAM FEW TO SCT
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE
TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
CWA. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
RELAX. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH RETURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY AND THICKNESS VALUES GRADUALLY LOWER A BIT MORE.
HOWEVER...THE WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE THE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT VARY
MUCH. LOW TEMPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY. THE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY
BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TX THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTH TX
THURS NIGHT. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO WEST TX FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GLOBAL MODELS PROG A 500MB TROUGH/LOW
IN THE VICINITY OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGS
PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE STATE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
MORE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
SOUTH TEXAS BUT REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION LIMITING ANY RAINFALL CHANGES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REINFORCING TOWARDS THE SOUTH EARLY
MONDAY WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE WINDS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS
BUT QUICKLY LOWER BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS UP
4 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61







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