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000
FXUS64 KBRO 192340 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
540 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS BOTTOMED OUT
AROUND 500 FEET EARLIER...BUT HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1000 CURRENTLY.
CIGS WILL FLUCTUATE LITTLE OVERNIGHT...MAYBE RISING TO 2000 LATE
TONIGHT. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NOTED THAT CLEARING SKIES
WERE ALREADY MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD KMFE...AND MAY BRING SOME
CONSIDERABLE BREAKS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO SCT GROUP FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED AT AREA LOCATIONS. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH GRADUALLY RISING CIGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...CURRENTLY THE SATELLITE
AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW ALREADY A NORTHERLY WIND OVER THE RANCHLANDS
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON THE NORTHERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO
15 MPH AND LOWER CEILINGS GRADUALLY RISING. AS DRY AIR KEEPS
FILTERING INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES MORE CLOSER TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S CLOSE TO THE COAST AND
MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WEST. THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS VERY LOW AS
DRY AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY
REMAIN LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
ENHANCE OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT BY THIS EVENING NO ADDITIONAL RAIN
IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE TROUGH WILL BUILD MAINTAINING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A BIT COOLER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA. THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID TO LOW 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHILE TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH SOME BREAK IN THE CLOUDS COULD SEE MID TO UPPER
40S. DUE TO THE MOISTURE IN THE AIR...LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY. INTO SATURDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS MEXICO HELPING
SHIFT EAST THE HIGH PRESSURE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
NE BY MID MORNING AND RETURN TO EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA BUT MAINLY KEEPING A MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP NO MORE
THAN MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ONSHORE FLOW SURGING
DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO RETURN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LEFT INHERITED 30 PERCENT AT
THIS TIME WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL CLOSE TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
BE ALMOST THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH THICKNESS VALUES REMAINING
ALMOST STEADY OVER THE CWA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...COASTAL LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA
SUNDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MONDAY NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD UNTIL WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD THURSDAY TO PROVIDE RELATIVELY WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. THESE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES ON SATURDAY.

MARINE...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
INCREASE WINDS AND BUILD SEAS DURING THE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. A
SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO THIS HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. IT IS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH LOWERING SEAS AND WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
NORTHEAST TO EAST AS A WEAK BOUNDARY LIFT NORTHWARD.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE TEXAS COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TUES AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS TUES MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64/64







000
FXUS64 KBRO 192027
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
227 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...CURRENTLY THE SATELLITE
AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW ALREADY A NORTHERLY WIND OVER THE RANCHLANDS
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON THE NORTHERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO
15 MPH AND LOWER CEILINGS GRADUALLY RISING. AS DRY AIR KEEPS
FILTERING INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES MORE CLOSER TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S CLOSE TO THE COAST AND
MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WEST. THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS VERY LOW AS
DRY AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY
REMAIN LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
ENHANCE OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT BY THIS EVENING NO ADDITIONAL RAIN
IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE TROUGH WILL BUILD MAINTAINING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A BIT COOLER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA. THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID TO LOW 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHILE TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH SOME BREAK IN THE CLOUDS COULD SEE MID TO UPPER
40S. DUE TO THE MOISTURE IN THE AIR...LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY. INTO SATURDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS MEXICO HELPING
SHIFT EAST THE HIGH PRESSURE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
NE BY MID MORNING AND RETURN TO EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA BUT MAINLY KEEPING A MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP NO MORE
THAN MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ONSHORE FLOW SURGING
DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO RETURN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LEFT INHERITED 30 PERCENT AT
THIS TIME WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL CLOSE TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
BE ALMOST THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH THICKNESS VALUES REMAINING
ALMOST STEADY OVER THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...COASTAL LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA
SUNDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MONDAY NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD UNTIL WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD THURSDAY TO PROVIDE RELATIVELY WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. THESE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES ON SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
INCREASE WINDS AND BUILD SEAS DURING THE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. A
SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO THIS HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. IT IS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH LOWERING SEAS AND WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
NORTHEAST TO EAST AS A WEAK BOUNDARY LIFT NORTHWARD.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE TEXAS COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TUES AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS TUES MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  55  64  56  65 /  10  20  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          54  67  54  65 /  10  20  30  40
HARLINGEN            51  65  53  64 /  10  10  30  30
MCALLEN              54  65  53  65 /  10  10  30  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      52  64  51  67 /  10  10  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   58  65  58  66 /  10  20  30  40
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61/BILLINGS







000
FXUS64 KBRO 192027
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
227 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...CURRENTLY THE SATELLITE
AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW ALREADY A NORTHERLY WIND OVER THE RANCHLANDS
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON THE NORTHERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO
15 MPH AND LOWER CEILINGS GRADUALLY RISING. AS DRY AIR KEEPS
FILTERING INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES MORE CLOSER TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S CLOSE TO THE COAST AND
MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WEST. THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS VERY LOW AS
DRY AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY
REMAIN LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
ENHANCE OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT BY THIS EVENING NO ADDITIONAL RAIN
IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE TROUGH WILL BUILD MAINTAINING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A BIT COOLER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA. THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID TO LOW 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHILE TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH SOME BREAK IN THE CLOUDS COULD SEE MID TO UPPER
40S. DUE TO THE MOISTURE IN THE AIR...LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY. INTO SATURDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS MEXICO HELPING
SHIFT EAST THE HIGH PRESSURE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
NE BY MID MORNING AND RETURN TO EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA BUT MAINLY KEEPING A MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP NO MORE
THAN MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ONSHORE FLOW SURGING
DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO RETURN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LEFT INHERITED 30 PERCENT AT
THIS TIME WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL CLOSE TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
BE ALMOST THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH THICKNESS VALUES REMAINING
ALMOST STEADY OVER THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...COASTAL LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA
SUNDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MONDAY NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD UNTIL WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD THURSDAY TO PROVIDE RELATIVELY WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. THESE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES ON SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
INCREASE WINDS AND BUILD SEAS DURING THE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. A
SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO THIS HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. IT IS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH LOWERING SEAS AND WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
NORTHEAST TO EAST AS A WEAK BOUNDARY LIFT NORTHWARD.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE TEXAS COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TUES AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS TUES MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  55  64  56  65 /  10  20  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          54  67  54  65 /  10  20  30  40
HARLINGEN            51  65  53  64 /  10  10  30  30
MCALLEN              54  65  53  65 /  10  10  30  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      52  64  51  67 /  10  10  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   58  65  58  66 /  10  20  30  40
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61/BILLINGS






000
FXUS64 KBRO 191807
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1207 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE FRONT ITS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE LOWER VALLEY
AS SEEING ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE NW
TO N WITH LOWERING TEMPS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW CEILINGS
HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING A BIT BUT EXPECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TO RISE 2500 FEET. HOWEVER...AROUND MIDNIGHT CEILINGS WILL RETURN
TO LOWER MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INTO SATURDAY...THE
CEILINGS IMPROVE WITH NORTH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING NE/E BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND CLOUD DECK BREAKING AS DRY
AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...CHANGES WERE MADE TO POPS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING
AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS CONCENTRATED TOWARDS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES EXTENDING FROM CORPUS TO HOUSTON. AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
RETURNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LESS.
BETTER CHANCE STILL REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TX PROVIDING
LIFT ALOFT AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED LGT ELEVATED SHOWERS. DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN AFTER THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. EVEN SO...CIGS WILL BE LIMITING BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MUCH OF THE DAY BECAUSE OF OVERRUNNING. SOME VSBY
REDUCTION IN MORNING FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE
LWR VALLEY WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH LATER TODAY AS
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS IS PROVIDING SOME
LIFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH HAS A
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE KBRO CWA
TO WORK WITH... WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 10 KFT AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S. THUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIPS BY OVER HEAD...AND ALREADY SEEING
RADAR RETURNS INCREASING IN COVERAGE...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER
IN THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON HIGH PRESS AND NORTH
WINDS. THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL LIE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LEFT TO
THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY.
NORTH SFC WINDS UNDER WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
OVERRUNNING...AND CLOUDINESS WILL BE THICKER ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BORDER...OR IVO THE RIO GRANDE.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...EVEN AS THE
MID LEVELS DRY OUT. SOUTHWEST CAPPING FLOW AT H7...OR 10 KFT...WILL
SEE TO THAT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 50 AT KBRO AND KSPI.
CLOUDINESS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...OR FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL THUS NOT REALLY ALLOW FOR A CLEARING OUT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL S/W
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY. WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FEATURE THEN MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH CHANCES WANING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND S/W TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH HIGHER
POPS OVER THE GULF WATERS. MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DRY AIR WORKS IN ON WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HEART OF THE NATION
MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM SO HAVE EDGED WINDS
UP WHILE NUDGING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS DOWN SLIGHTLY. HAVE
ALSO INTRODUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS MOISTURE APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST PRECIPITATION THERE. SURFACE RIDGING WORKS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NEXT S/W
TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. WAA AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS JUMPING
UP TO THE MIDDLE 70S... PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES... AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL TURN TO FRESH OR STRONG NORTH LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS WILL BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN WITH A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WHEN NORTH WINDS ON THE GULF WILL APPROACH 20 KTS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO JUST SHY OF SEVEN FEET. THUS...A FEW HOURS OF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT
AND THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS SETTLING
DOWN THE REST OF SATURDAY.

/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MORE MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
THE SEAS AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND SEA HEIGHTS RISING TO NEAR 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61







000
FXUS64 KBRO 191807
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1207 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE FRONT ITS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE LOWER VALLEY
AS SEEING ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE NW
TO N WITH LOWERING TEMPS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW CEILINGS
HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING A BIT BUT EXPECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TO RISE 2500 FEET. HOWEVER...AROUND MIDNIGHT CEILINGS WILL RETURN
TO LOWER MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INTO SATURDAY...THE
CEILINGS IMPROVE WITH NORTH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING NE/E BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND CLOUD DECK BREAKING AS DRY
AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...CHANGES WERE MADE TO POPS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING
AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS CONCENTRATED TOWARDS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES EXTENDING FROM CORPUS TO HOUSTON. AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
RETURNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LESS.
BETTER CHANCE STILL REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TX PROVIDING
LIFT ALOFT AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED LGT ELEVATED SHOWERS. DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN AFTER THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. EVEN SO...CIGS WILL BE LIMITING BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MUCH OF THE DAY BECAUSE OF OVERRUNNING. SOME VSBY
REDUCTION IN MORNING FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE
LWR VALLEY WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH LATER TODAY AS
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS IS PROVIDING SOME
LIFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH HAS A
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE KBRO CWA
TO WORK WITH... WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 10 KFT AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S. THUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIPS BY OVER HEAD...AND ALREADY SEEING
RADAR RETURNS INCREASING IN COVERAGE...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER
IN THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON HIGH PRESS AND NORTH
WINDS. THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL LIE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LEFT TO
THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY.
NORTH SFC WINDS UNDER WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
OVERRUNNING...AND CLOUDINESS WILL BE THICKER ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BORDER...OR IVO THE RIO GRANDE.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...EVEN AS THE
MID LEVELS DRY OUT. SOUTHWEST CAPPING FLOW AT H7...OR 10 KFT...WILL
SEE TO THAT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 50 AT KBRO AND KSPI.
CLOUDINESS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...OR FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL THUS NOT REALLY ALLOW FOR A CLEARING OUT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL S/W
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY. WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FEATURE THEN MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH CHANCES WANING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND S/W TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH HIGHER
POPS OVER THE GULF WATERS. MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DRY AIR WORKS IN ON WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HEART OF THE NATION
MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM SO HAVE EDGED WINDS
UP WHILE NUDGING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS DOWN SLIGHTLY. HAVE
ALSO INTRODUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS MOISTURE APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST PRECIPITATION THERE. SURFACE RIDGING WORKS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NEXT S/W
TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. WAA AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS JUMPING
UP TO THE MIDDLE 70S... PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES... AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL TURN TO FRESH OR STRONG NORTH LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS WILL BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN WITH A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WHEN NORTH WINDS ON THE GULF WILL APPROACH 20 KTS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO JUST SHY OF SEVEN FEET. THUS...A FEW HOURS OF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT
AND THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS SETTLING
DOWN THE REST OF SATURDAY.

/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MORE MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
THE SEAS AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND SEA HEIGHTS RISING TO NEAR 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61








000
FXUS64 KBRO 191510
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
910 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...CHANGES WERE MADE TO POPS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING
AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS CONCENTRATED TOWARDS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES EXTENDING FROM CORPUS TO HOUSTON. AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
RETURNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LESS.
BETTER CHANCE STILL REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TX PROVIDING
LIFT ALOFT AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED LGT ELEVATED SHOWERS. DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN AFTER THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. EVEN SO...CIGS WILL BE LIMITING BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MUCH OF THE DAY BECAUSE OF OVERRUNNING. SOME VSBY
REDUCTION IN MORNING FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE
LWR VALLEY WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH LATER TODAY AS
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS IS PROVIDING SOME
LIFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH HAS A
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE KBRO CWA
TO WORK WITH... WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 10 KFT AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S. THUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIPS BY OVER HEAD...AND ALREADY SEEING
RADAR RETURNS INCREASING IN COVERAGE...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER
IN THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON HIGH PRESS AND NORTH
WINDS. THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL LIE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LEFT TO
THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY.
NORTH SFC WINDS UNDER WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
OVERRUNNING...AND CLOUDINESS WILL BE THICKER ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BORDER...OR IVO THE RIO GRANDE.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...EVEN AS THE
MID LEVELS DRY OUT. SOUTHWEST CAPPING FLOW AT H7...OR 10 KFT...WILL
SEE TO THAT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 50 AT KBRO AND KSPI.
CLOUDINESS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...OR FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL THUS NOT REALLY ALLOW FOR A CLEARING OUT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL S/W
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY. WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FEATURE THEN MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH CHANCES WANING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND S/W TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH HIGHER
POPS OVER THE GULF WATERS. MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DRY AIR WORKS IN ON WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HEART OF THE NATION
MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM SO HAVE EDGED WINDS
UP WHILE NUDGING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS DOWN SLIGHTLY. HAVE
ALSO INTRODUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS MOISTURE APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST PRECIPITATION THERE. SURFACE RIDGING WORKS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NEXT S/W
TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. WAA AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS JUMPING
UP TO THE MIDDLE 70S... PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES... AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL TURN TO FRESH OR STRONG NORTH LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS WILL BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN WITH A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WHEN NORTH WINDS ON THE GULF WILL APPROACH 20 KTS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO JUST SHY OF SEVEN FEET. THUS...A FEW HOURS OF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT
AND THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS SETTLING
DOWN THE REST OF SATURDAY.

/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MORE MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
THE SEAS AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND SEA HEIGHTS RISING TO NEAR 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61









000
FXUS64 KBRO 191510
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
910 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...CHANGES WERE MADE TO POPS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING
AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS CONCENTRATED TOWARDS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES EXTENDING FROM CORPUS TO HOUSTON. AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
RETURNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LESS.
BETTER CHANCE STILL REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TX PROVIDING
LIFT ALOFT AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED LGT ELEVATED SHOWERS. DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN AFTER THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. EVEN SO...CIGS WILL BE LIMITING BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MUCH OF THE DAY BECAUSE OF OVERRUNNING. SOME VSBY
REDUCTION IN MORNING FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE
LWR VALLEY WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH LATER TODAY AS
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS IS PROVIDING SOME
LIFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH HAS A
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE KBRO CWA
TO WORK WITH... WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 10 KFT AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S. THUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIPS BY OVER HEAD...AND ALREADY SEEING
RADAR RETURNS INCREASING IN COVERAGE...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER
IN THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON HIGH PRESS AND NORTH
WINDS. THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL LIE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LEFT TO
THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY.
NORTH SFC WINDS UNDER WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
OVERRUNNING...AND CLOUDINESS WILL BE THICKER ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BORDER...OR IVO THE RIO GRANDE.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...EVEN AS THE
MID LEVELS DRY OUT. SOUTHWEST CAPPING FLOW AT H7...OR 10 KFT...WILL
SEE TO THAT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 50 AT KBRO AND KSPI.
CLOUDINESS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...OR FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL THUS NOT REALLY ALLOW FOR A CLEARING OUT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL S/W
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY. WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FEATURE THEN MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH CHANCES WANING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND S/W TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH HIGHER
POPS OVER THE GULF WATERS. MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DRY AIR WORKS IN ON WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HEART OF THE NATION
MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM SO HAVE EDGED WINDS
UP WHILE NUDGING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS DOWN SLIGHTLY. HAVE
ALSO INTRODUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS MOISTURE APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST PRECIPITATION THERE. SURFACE RIDGING WORKS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NEXT S/W
TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. WAA AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS JUMPING
UP TO THE MIDDLE 70S... PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES... AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL TURN TO FRESH OR STRONG NORTH LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS WILL BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN WITH A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WHEN NORTH WINDS ON THE GULF WILL APPROACH 20 KTS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO JUST SHY OF SEVEN FEET. THUS...A FEW HOURS OF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT
AND THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS SETTLING
DOWN THE REST OF SATURDAY.

/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MORE MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
THE SEAS AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND SEA HEIGHTS RISING TO NEAR 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61








000
FXUS64 KBRO 191159
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
559 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TX PROVIDING
LIFT ALOFT AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED LGT ELEVATED SHOWERS. DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN AFTER THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. EVEN SO...CIGS WILL BE LIMITING BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MUCH OF THE DAY BECAUSE OF OVERRUNNING. SOME VSBY
REDUCTION IN MORNING FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE
LWR VALLEY WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH LATER TODAY AS
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS IS PROVIDING SOME
LIFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH HAS A
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE KBRO CWA
TO WORK WITH... WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 10 KFT AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S. THUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIPS BY OVER HEAD...AND ALREADY SEEING
RADAR RETURNS INCREASING IN COVERAGE...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER
IN THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON HIGH PRESS AND NORTH
WINDS. THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL LIE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LEFT TO
THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY.
NORTH SFC WINDS UNDER WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
OVERRUNNING...AND CLOUDINESS WILL BE THICKER ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BORDER...OR IVO THE RIO GRANDE.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...EVEN AS THE
MID LEVELS DRY OUT. SOUTHWEST CAPPING FLOW AT H7...OR 10 KFT...WILL
SEE TO THAT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 50 AT KBRO AND KSPI.
CLOUDINESS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...OR FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL THUS NOT REALLY ALLOW FOR A CLEARING OUT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL S/W
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY. WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FEATURE THEN MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH CHANCES WANING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND S/W TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH HIGHER
POPS OVER THE GULF WATERS. MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DRY AIR WORKS IN ON WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HEART OF THE NATION
MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM SO HAVE EDGED WINDS
UP WHILE NUDGING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS DOWN SLIGHTLY. HAVE
ALSO INTRODUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS MOISTURE APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST PRECIPITATION THERE. SURFACE RIDGING WORKS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NEXT S/W
TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. WAA AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS JUMPING
UP TO THE MIDDLE 70S... PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES... AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL TURN TO FRESH OR STRONG NORTH LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS WILL BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN WITH A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WHEN NORTH WINDS ON THE GULF WILL APPROACH 20 KTS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO JUST SHY OF SEVEN FEET. THUS...A FEW HOURS OF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT
AND THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS SETTLING
DOWN THE REST OF SATURDAY.

/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MORE MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
THE SEAS AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND SEA HEIGHTS RISING TO NEAR 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/51






000
FXUS64 KBRO 191159
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
559 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TX PROVIDING
LIFT ALOFT AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED LGT ELEVATED SHOWERS. DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN AFTER THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. EVEN SO...CIGS WILL BE LIMITING BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MUCH OF THE DAY BECAUSE OF OVERRUNNING. SOME VSBY
REDUCTION IN MORNING FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE
LWR VALLEY WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH LATER TODAY AS
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS IS PROVIDING SOME
LIFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH HAS A
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE KBRO CWA
TO WORK WITH... WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 10 KFT AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S. THUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIPS BY OVER HEAD...AND ALREADY SEEING
RADAR RETURNS INCREASING IN COVERAGE...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER
IN THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON HIGH PRESS AND NORTH
WINDS. THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL LIE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LEFT TO
THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY.
NORTH SFC WINDS UNDER WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
OVERRUNNING...AND CLOUDINESS WILL BE THICKER ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BORDER...OR IVO THE RIO GRANDE.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...EVEN AS THE
MID LEVELS DRY OUT. SOUTHWEST CAPPING FLOW AT H7...OR 10 KFT...WILL
SEE TO THAT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 50 AT KBRO AND KSPI.
CLOUDINESS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...OR FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL THUS NOT REALLY ALLOW FOR A CLEARING OUT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL S/W
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY. WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FEATURE THEN MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH CHANCES WANING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND S/W TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH HIGHER
POPS OVER THE GULF WATERS. MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DRY AIR WORKS IN ON WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HEART OF THE NATION
MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM SO HAVE EDGED WINDS
UP WHILE NUDGING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS DOWN SLIGHTLY. HAVE
ALSO INTRODUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS MOISTURE APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST PRECIPITATION THERE. SURFACE RIDGING WORKS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NEXT S/W
TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. WAA AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS JUMPING
UP TO THE MIDDLE 70S... PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES... AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL TURN TO FRESH OR STRONG NORTH LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS WILL BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN WITH A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WHEN NORTH WINDS ON THE GULF WILL APPROACH 20 KTS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO JUST SHY OF SEVEN FEET. THUS...A FEW HOURS OF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT
AND THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS SETTLING
DOWN THE REST OF SATURDAY.

/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MORE MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
THE SEAS AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND SEA HEIGHTS RISING TO NEAR 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/51







000
FXUS64 KBRO 190939
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
339 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS IS PROVIDING SOME
LIFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH HAS A
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE KBRO CWA
TO WORK WITH... WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 10 KFT AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S. THUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIPS BY OVER HEAD...AND ALREADY SEEING
RADAR RETURNS INCREASING IN COVERAGE...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER
IN THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON HIGH PRESS AND NORTH
WINDS. THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL LIE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LEFT TO
THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY.
NORTH SFC WINDS UNDER WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
OVERRUNNING...AND CLOUDINESS WILL BE THICKER ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BORDER...OR IVO THE RIO GRANDE.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...EVEN AS THE
MID LEVELS DRY OUT. SOUTHWEST CAPPING FLOW AT H7...OR 10 KFT...WILL
SEE TO THAT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 50 AT KBRO AND KSPI.
CLOUDINESS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...OR FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL THUS NOT REALLY ALLOW FOR A CLEARING OUT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL S/W
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY. WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FEATURE THEN MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH CHANCES WANING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND S/W TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH HIGHER
POPS OVER THE GULF WATERS. MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DRY AIR WORKS IN ON WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HEART OF THE NATION
MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM SO HAVE EDGED WINDS
UP WHILE NUDGING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DOWN SLIGHTLY. HAVE
ALSO INTRODUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS MOISTURE APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR ATLEAST PRECIPITATION THERE. SURFACE RIDGING WORKS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NEXT S/W
TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. WAA AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS JUMPING
UP TO THE MIDDLE 70S... PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES... AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL TURN TO FRESH OR STRONG NORTH LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS WILL BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN WITH A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WHEN NORTH WINDS ON THE GULF WILL APPROACH 20 KTS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO JUST SHY OF SEVEN FEET. THUS...A FEW HOURS OF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT
AND THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS SETTLING
DOWN THE REST OF SATURDAY.

/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MORE MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
THE SEAS AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND SEA HEIGHTS RISING TO NEAR 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  75  56  64  57 /  30  10  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          76  55  65  55 /  30  10  20  30
HARLINGEN            76  54  63  54 /  30  10  10  30
MCALLEN              74  54  63  54 /  30  10  10  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      71  52  64  52 /  20  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  59  65  59 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...CAMPBELL






000
FXUS64 KBRO 190939
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
339 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS IS PROVIDING SOME
LIFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH HAS A
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE KBRO CWA
TO WORK WITH... WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 10 KFT AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S. THUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIPS BY OVER HEAD...AND ALREADY SEEING
RADAR RETURNS INCREASING IN COVERAGE...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER
IN THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON HIGH PRESS AND NORTH
WINDS. THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL LIE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LEFT TO
THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY.
NORTH SFC WINDS UNDER WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
OVERRUNNING...AND CLOUDINESS WILL BE THICKER ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BORDER...OR IVO THE RIO GRANDE.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...EVEN AS THE
MID LEVELS DRY OUT. SOUTHWEST CAPPING FLOW AT H7...OR 10 KFT...WILL
SEE TO THAT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 50 AT KBRO AND KSPI.
CLOUDINESS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...OR FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL THUS NOT REALLY ALLOW FOR A CLEARING OUT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL S/W
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY. WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FEATURE THEN MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH CHANCES WANING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND S/W TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH HIGHER
POPS OVER THE GULF WATERS. MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DRY AIR WORKS IN ON WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HEART OF THE NATION
MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM SO HAVE EDGED WINDS
UP WHILE NUDGING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DOWN SLIGHTLY. HAVE
ALSO INTRODUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS MOISTURE APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR ATLEAST PRECIPITATION THERE. SURFACE RIDGING WORKS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NEXT S/W
TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. WAA AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS JUMPING
UP TO THE MIDDLE 70S... PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES... AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL TURN TO FRESH OR STRONG NORTH LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS WILL BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN WITH A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WHEN NORTH WINDS ON THE GULF WILL APPROACH 20 KTS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO JUST SHY OF SEVEN FEET. THUS...A FEW HOURS OF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT
AND THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS SETTLING
DOWN THE REST OF SATURDAY.

/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MORE MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
THE SEAS AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND SEA HEIGHTS RISING TO NEAR 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  75  56  64  57 /  30  10  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          76  55  65  55 /  30  10  20  30
HARLINGEN            76  54  63  54 /  30  10  10  30
MCALLEN              74  54  63  54 /  30  10  10  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      71  52  64  52 /  20  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  59  65  59 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...CAMPBELL







000
FXUS64 KBRO 190501 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1101 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM MFE NORTHWARD TO BKS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT A MIX OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH VFR EAST. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT LIFR/IFR WILL PREVAIL AT MFE WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
AT HRL AND BRO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION MORE THAN
VCSH AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM HRL NORTHWARD
NEAR TO BKS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH VFR
EAST. LOW CEILINGS/VIS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION MORE THAN VCSH AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATION AND SAT
IMAGERY SHOW THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF ZAPATA INTO HEBBRONVILLE
AND NORTH OF FALFURRIAS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING NORTH AND SOUTH ALL MORNING
AND HAS DEVELOP A SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE TO MFE AREA. THIS HAS ALLOW FOR
A BAND OF LIGHT BRIEF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF HWY 281 TODAY. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
OVER NEVADA HEADS EAST...AND MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS WEST AND SOUTH TX
FRIDAY.

AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFT NORTHWARD
RETURNING A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE PULLING ABUNDANT
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST A DECENT
DIFFLUENCE AREA ALOFT WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHER CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE THE BETTER LIFT WILL BE. CAN NOT RULED OUT AN ISOLATED CASE OF
THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HAIL AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. AS THE CLOUD DECK REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 850 TEMPS ON THE INCREASE...EXPECT THE
TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE COOLER OVER
ZAPATA AND HEBBRONVILLE.

AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND MOVES EASTWARD DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAIN SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL BE AROUND NOON TIME FRIDAY WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AND SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
BUT THE LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL LOWER INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND MID 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A 500MB TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
THAN HAVE BEEN FORECAST THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MONDAY MOVES
EASTWARD TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD
THURSDAY PROVIDING A FAIRLY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST CLOSER INTO THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CURRENTLY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AS WE GET CLOSER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LOW SEAS. BY TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN INLAND BUT BY EARLY SUNRISE A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE IN THE
GULF WATERS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES. INTO
FRIDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SO DOES THE CONVECTION BUT A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS INCREASING THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCEC POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY BECOMING SCA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT TILL MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FRI NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY AS A COASTAL
LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY MONDAY BEFORE VEERING TO THE
SOUTH MON NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TUES MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST TUES AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63








000
FXUS64 KBRO 190006 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
606 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM HRL NORTHWARD
NEAR TO BKS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH VFR
EAST. LOW CEILINGS/VIS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION MORE THAN VCSH AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATION AND SAT
IMAGERY SHOW THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF ZAPATA INTO HEBBRONVILLE
AND NORTH OF FALFURRIAS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING NORTH AND SOUTH ALL MORNING
AND HAS DEVELOP A SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE TO MFE AREA. THIS HAS ALLOW FOR
A BAND OF LIGHT BRIEF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF HWY 281 TODAY. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
OVER NEVADA HEADS EAST...AND MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS WEST AND SOUTH TX
FRIDAY.

AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFT NORTHWARD
RETURNING A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE PULLING ABUNDANT
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST A DECENT
DIFFLUENCE AREA ALOFT WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHER CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE THE BETTER LIFT WILL BE. CAN NOT RULED OUT AN ISOLATED CASE OF
THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HAIL AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. AS THE CLOUD DECK REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 850 TEMPS ON THE INCREASE...EXPECT THE
TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE COOLER OVER
ZAPATA AND HEBBRONVILLE.

AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND MOVES EASTWARD DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAIN SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL BE AROUND NOON TIME FRIDAY WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AND SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
BUT THE LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL LOWER INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND MID 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A 500MB TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
THAN HAVE BEEN FORECAST THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MONDAY MOVES
EASTWARD TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD
THURSDAY PROVIDING A FAIRLY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST CLOSER INTO THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CURRENTLY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AS WE GET CLOSER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LOW SEAS. BY TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN INLAND BUT BY EARLY SUNRISE A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE IN THE
GULF WATERS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES. INTO
FRIDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SO DOES THE CONVECTION BUT A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS INCREASING THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCEC POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY BECOMING SCA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT TILL MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FRI NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY AS A COASTAL
LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY MONDAY BEFORE VEERING TO THE
SOUTH MON NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TUES MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST TUES AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63







000
FXUS64 KBRO 190006 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
606 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM HRL NORTHWARD
NEAR TO BKS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH VFR
EAST. LOW CEILINGS/VIS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION MORE THAN VCSH AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATION AND SAT
IMAGERY SHOW THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF ZAPATA INTO HEBBRONVILLE
AND NORTH OF FALFURRIAS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING NORTH AND SOUTH ALL MORNING
AND HAS DEVELOP A SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE TO MFE AREA. THIS HAS ALLOW FOR
A BAND OF LIGHT BRIEF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF HWY 281 TODAY. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
OVER NEVADA HEADS EAST...AND MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS WEST AND SOUTH TX
FRIDAY.

AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFT NORTHWARD
RETURNING A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE PULLING ABUNDANT
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST A DECENT
DIFFLUENCE AREA ALOFT WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHER CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE THE BETTER LIFT WILL BE. CAN NOT RULED OUT AN ISOLATED CASE OF
THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HAIL AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. AS THE CLOUD DECK REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 850 TEMPS ON THE INCREASE...EXPECT THE
TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE COOLER OVER
ZAPATA AND HEBBRONVILLE.

AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND MOVES EASTWARD DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAIN SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL BE AROUND NOON TIME FRIDAY WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AND SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
BUT THE LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL LOWER INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND MID 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A 500MB TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
THAN HAVE BEEN FORECAST THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MONDAY MOVES
EASTWARD TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD
THURSDAY PROVIDING A FAIRLY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST CLOSER INTO THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CURRENTLY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AS WE GET CLOSER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LOW SEAS. BY TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN INLAND BUT BY EARLY SUNRISE A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE IN THE
GULF WATERS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES. INTO
FRIDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SO DOES THE CONVECTION BUT A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS INCREASING THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCEC POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY BECOMING SCA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT TILL MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FRI NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY AS A COASTAL
LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY MONDAY BEFORE VEERING TO THE
SOUTH MON NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TUES MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST TUES AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63






000
FXUS64 KBRO 182045
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
245 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATION AND SAT
IMAGERY SHOW THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF ZAPATA INTO HEBBRONVILLE
AND NORTH OF FALFURRIAS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING NORTH AND SOUTH ALL MORNING
AND HAS DEVELOP A SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE TO MFE AREA. THIS HAS ALLOW FOR
A BAND OF LIGHT BRIEF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF HWY 281 TODAY. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
OVER NEVADA HEADS EAST...AND MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS WEST AND SOUTH TX
FRIDAY.

AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFT NORTHWARD
RETURNING A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE PULLING ABUNDANT
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST A DECENT
DIFFLUENCE AREA ALOFT WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHER CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE THE BETTER LIFT WILL BE. CAN NOT RULED OUT AN ISOLATED CASE OF
THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HAIL AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. AS THE CLOUD DECK REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 850 TEMPS ON THE INCREASE...EXPECT THE
TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE COOLER OVER
ZAPATA AND HEBBRONVILLE.

AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND MOVES EASTWARD DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAIN SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL BE AROUND NOON TIME FRIDAY WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AND SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
BUT THE LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL LOWER INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND MID 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A 500MB TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
THAN HAVE BEEN FORECAST THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MONDAY MOVES
EASTWARD TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD
THURSDAY PROVIDING A FAIRLY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST CLOSER INTO THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CURRENTLY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AS WE GET CLOSER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LOW SEAS. BY TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN INLAND BUT BY EARLY SUNRISE A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE IN THE
GULF WATERS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES. INTO
FRIDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SO DOES THE CONVECTION BUT A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS INCREASING THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCEC POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY BECOMING SCA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT TILL MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FRI NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY AS A COASTAL
LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY MONDAY BEFORE VEERING TO THE
SOUTH MON NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TUES MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST TUES AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  67  76  55  64 /  20  30  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          67  77  55  65 /  30  30  10  20
HARLINGEN            67  78  53  64 /  30  30  10  10
MCALLEN              66  79  53  64 /  30  30  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      63  75  51  64 /  40  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   68  74  59  65 /  20  30  10  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61/MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 182045
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
245 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATION AND SAT
IMAGERY SHOW THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF ZAPATA INTO HEBBRONVILLE
AND NORTH OF FALFURRIAS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING NORTH AND SOUTH ALL MORNING
AND HAS DEVELOP A SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE TO MFE AREA. THIS HAS ALLOW FOR
A BAND OF LIGHT BRIEF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF HWY 281 TODAY. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
OVER NEVADA HEADS EAST...AND MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS WEST AND SOUTH TX
FRIDAY.

AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFT NORTHWARD
RETURNING A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE PULLING ABUNDANT
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST A DECENT
DIFFLUENCE AREA ALOFT WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHER CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE THE BETTER LIFT WILL BE. CAN NOT RULED OUT AN ISOLATED CASE OF
THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HAIL AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. AS THE CLOUD DECK REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 850 TEMPS ON THE INCREASE...EXPECT THE
TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE COOLER OVER
ZAPATA AND HEBBRONVILLE.

AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND MOVES EASTWARD DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAIN SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL BE AROUND NOON TIME FRIDAY WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AND SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
BUT THE LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL LOWER INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND MID 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A 500MB TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
THAN HAVE BEEN FORECAST THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MONDAY MOVES
EASTWARD TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD
THURSDAY PROVIDING A FAIRLY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST CLOSER INTO THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CURRENTLY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AS WE GET CLOSER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LOW SEAS. BY TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN INLAND BUT BY EARLY SUNRISE A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE IN THE
GULF WATERS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES. INTO
FRIDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SO DOES THE CONVECTION BUT A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS INCREASING THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCEC POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY BECOMING SCA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT TILL MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FRI NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY AS A COASTAL
LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY MONDAY BEFORE VEERING TO THE
SOUTH MON NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TUES MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST TUES AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  67  76  55  64 /  20  30  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          67  77  55  65 /  30  30  10  20
HARLINGEN            67  78  53  64 /  30  30  10  10
MCALLEN              66  79  53  64 /  30  30  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      63  75  51  64 /  40  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   68  74  59  65 /  20  30  10  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61/MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 181752
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1152 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LATEST OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED BETWEEN ZAPATA AND MCALLEN AREA. A WEAK
BOUNDARY IS ALSO NOTED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATION CLOSER TO MFE AND
HRL TERMINALS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE HRL AND
BRO AREA WHILE A WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER MFE. A WEAK BAND OF DZ
TO LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOP AND HAS REMAINED STATIONARY OVER THE LAST
FEW RADAR SCANS CLOSER TO THE MFE AIRPORT. ADDED TEMPO GROUPS AS IT
LOOKS THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE TO RECEIVE SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO THIS BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOP MVFR CEILING
CLOSER TO MFE AND EXPECT THIS BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF KEEPS FEEDING THIS BOUNDARY
AIDING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BAND OF
RAIN.

TONIGHT THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES AS A CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS
UP OVER THE AREA RETURNING SE FLOW ACROSS THE THREE TERMINALS.
LOWER CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE WITH THE LIGHT SE FLOW
LOWERING TO MVFR CEILINGS ESPECIALLY AFTER 3Z. HIGH CHANCE FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG.
CEILINGS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH OF THE VALLEY ACROSS
JIM HOGG AND STARR COUNTIES AND WILL STAY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS
TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY
AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
GREAT AT THIS TIME SO HAVE JUST VCSH TODAY FOR THE SITES. CONDS
SHOULD BE VFR TODAY BUT BRIEF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. PREDOMINATE MVFR RETURNS THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN JIM
HOGG/ZAPATA COUNTY THEN BACK WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. WINDS
NORTH AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND WINDS
IN THE VALLEY ARE FROM THE SOUTH. UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DOWN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH HEIGHT FALLS
OUT AHEAD OF IT AND PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM
OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE ON TRACK...AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEY AND AROUND 60 NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EDGES
CLOSER PLACING THE AREA IN INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND UPPER JET
DYNAMICS MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN
PLAY TODAY DUE TO THE MEANDERING FRONT DRAPED IN THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE AREA. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE PRESENT LEADING TO
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLE AS WELL AND SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE FOR
OUR FAR WESTERN SECTIONS FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A CHALLENGE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY OF MID/UPPER 60S AND UPPER 70S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY EAST OF HWY 281.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AS THE UPPER TOUGH GETS CLOSER THEN LIFT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TEXAS WILL LINK UP WITH
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND SWEEP THROUGH
OUR AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE THE LOWER VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE RANCH LANDS AS BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND A SLOW DECREASE TO THE CLOUDS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...LANDING MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S
WILL SEEM COOL. HIGH PRES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND ABOVE NRML TEMPS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND UNDERWAY.

ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO WEST TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LIFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.

AT THIS POINT THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DIVERGE IN SOME RESPECTS. THE
ECMWF DIGS A DEEPER TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
RESULT WILL BE PRESSURE FALLS SOUTH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH ARE
NOT SEEN BY THE GFS. WINDS ARE THUS PROGGED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST BY
THE ECMWF SOONER THAN THE GFS...ENDING THE DRY AIR INFLUX AND
INSTEAD INCREASING MOISTURE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE TWO MODELS COME BACK
TOGETHER SOMEWHAT LATE MONDAY HOWEVER...BUT IT IS AN INTERESTING
ANOMALY. THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BY THAT TIME DEVELOPING A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER WITH INCOMING DRY AIR TUESDAY...
BUT THE NET RESULT SEEMS SIMILAR...WITH STRONG UPSTREAM RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A TUESDAY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE DROP TO NEAR NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...WITH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXHIBITING DRY WEATHER AND A WEAK
WARMING TREND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
NEAR 9 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THURS NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE RGV ALLOWS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS BECOMING OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN IMPACT PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A FRONT
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET. A FEW
HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AROUND
MIDNIGHT BUT BY MID SATURDAY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...MOVING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS
WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A
FEW HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH MODERATE NORTH
WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WHILE SEAS REMAIN MODERATE THOUGH SLOWLY
DECREASING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WHILE A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON A LOW LATITUDE TRAJECTORY...SWINGING
OVER WEST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
MARINE WX SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN DRIER AIR OF SIMILAR
PRESSURE WILL DISPLACE THE PREVIOUS AIR MASS. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN CHANGING WINDS TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT DEEPENS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHILE THE GFS WAITS UNTIL
MONDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61








000
FXUS64 KBRO 181752
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1152 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LATEST OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED BETWEEN ZAPATA AND MCALLEN AREA. A WEAK
BOUNDARY IS ALSO NOTED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATION CLOSER TO MFE AND
HRL TERMINALS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE HRL AND
BRO AREA WHILE A WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER MFE. A WEAK BAND OF DZ
TO LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOP AND HAS REMAINED STATIONARY OVER THE LAST
FEW RADAR SCANS CLOSER TO THE MFE AIRPORT. ADDED TEMPO GROUPS AS IT
LOOKS THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE TO RECEIVE SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO THIS BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOP MVFR CEILING
CLOSER TO MFE AND EXPECT THIS BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF KEEPS FEEDING THIS BOUNDARY
AIDING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BAND OF
RAIN.

TONIGHT THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES AS A CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS
UP OVER THE AREA RETURNING SE FLOW ACROSS THE THREE TERMINALS.
LOWER CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE WITH THE LIGHT SE FLOW
LOWERING TO MVFR CEILINGS ESPECIALLY AFTER 3Z. HIGH CHANCE FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG.
CEILINGS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH OF THE VALLEY ACROSS
JIM HOGG AND STARR COUNTIES AND WILL STAY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS
TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY
AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
GREAT AT THIS TIME SO HAVE JUST VCSH TODAY FOR THE SITES. CONDS
SHOULD BE VFR TODAY BUT BRIEF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. PREDOMINATE MVFR RETURNS THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN JIM
HOGG/ZAPATA COUNTY THEN BACK WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. WINDS
NORTH AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND WINDS
IN THE VALLEY ARE FROM THE SOUTH. UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DOWN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH HEIGHT FALLS
OUT AHEAD OF IT AND PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM
OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE ON TRACK...AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEY AND AROUND 60 NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EDGES
CLOSER PLACING THE AREA IN INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND UPPER JET
DYNAMICS MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN
PLAY TODAY DUE TO THE MEANDERING FRONT DRAPED IN THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE AREA. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE PRESENT LEADING TO
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLE AS WELL AND SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE FOR
OUR FAR WESTERN SECTIONS FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A CHALLENGE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY OF MID/UPPER 60S AND UPPER 70S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY EAST OF HWY 281.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AS THE UPPER TOUGH GETS CLOSER THEN LIFT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TEXAS WILL LINK UP WITH
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND SWEEP THROUGH
OUR AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE THE LOWER VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE RANCH LANDS AS BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND A SLOW DECREASE TO THE CLOUDS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...LANDING MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S
WILL SEEM COOL. HIGH PRES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND ABOVE NRML TEMPS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND UNDERWAY.

ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO WEST TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LIFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.

AT THIS POINT THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DIVERGE IN SOME RESPECTS. THE
ECMWF DIGS A DEEPER TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
RESULT WILL BE PRESSURE FALLS SOUTH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH ARE
NOT SEEN BY THE GFS. WINDS ARE THUS PROGGED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST BY
THE ECMWF SOONER THAN THE GFS...ENDING THE DRY AIR INFLUX AND
INSTEAD INCREASING MOISTURE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE TWO MODELS COME BACK
TOGETHER SOMEWHAT LATE MONDAY HOWEVER...BUT IT IS AN INTERESTING
ANOMALY. THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BY THAT TIME DEVELOPING A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER WITH INCOMING DRY AIR TUESDAY...
BUT THE NET RESULT SEEMS SIMILAR...WITH STRONG UPSTREAM RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A TUESDAY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE DROP TO NEAR NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...WITH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXHIBITING DRY WEATHER AND A WEAK
WARMING TREND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
NEAR 9 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THURS NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE RGV ALLOWS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS BECOMING OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN IMPACT PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A FRONT
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET. A FEW
HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AROUND
MIDNIGHT BUT BY MID SATURDAY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...MOVING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS
WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A
FEW HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH MODERATE NORTH
WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WHILE SEAS REMAIN MODERATE THOUGH SLOWLY
DECREASING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WHILE A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON A LOW LATITUDE TRAJECTORY...SWINGING
OVER WEST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
MARINE WX SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN DRIER AIR OF SIMILAR
PRESSURE WILL DISPLACE THE PREVIOUS AIR MASS. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN CHANGING WINDS TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT DEEPENS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHILE THE GFS WAITS UNTIL
MONDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61







000
FXUS64 KBRO 181127
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
527 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH OF THE VALLEY ACROSS
JIM HOGG AND STARR COUNTIES AND WILL STAY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS
TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY
AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
GREAT AT THIS TIME SO HAVE JUST VCSH TODAY FOR THE SITES. CONDS
SHOULD BE VFR TODAY BUT BRIEF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. PREDOMINATE MVFR RETURNS THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN JIM
HOGG/ZAPATA COUNTY THEN BACK WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. WINDS
NORTH AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND WINDS
IN THE VALLEY ARE FROM THE SOUTH. UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DOWN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH HEIGHT FALLS
OUT AHEAD OF IT AND PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM
OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE ON TRACK...AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEY AND AROUND 60 NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EDGES
CLOSER PLACING THE AREA IN INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND UPPER JET
DYNAMICS MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN
PLAY TODAY DUE TO THE MEANDERING FRONT DRAPED IN THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE AREA. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE PRESENT LEADING TO
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLE AS WELL AND SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE FOR
OUR FAR WESTERN SECTIONS FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A CHALLENGE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY OF MID/UPPER 60S AND UPPER 70S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY EAST OF HWY 281.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AS THE UPPER TOUGH GETS CLOSER THEN LIFT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TEXAS WILL LINK UP WITH
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND SWEEP THROUGH
OUR AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE THE LOWER VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE RANCH LANDS AS BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND A SLOW DECREASE TO THE CLOUDS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...LANDING MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S
WILL SEEM COOL. HIGH PRES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND ABOVE NRML TEMPS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND UNDERWAY.

ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO WEST TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LIFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.

AT THIS POINT THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DIVERGE IN SOME RESPECTS. THE
ECMWF DIGS A DEEPER TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
RESULT WILL BE PRESSURE FALLS SOUTH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH ARE
NOT SEEN BY THE GFS. WINDS ARE THUS PROGGED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST BY
THE ECMWF SOONER THAN THE GFS...ENDING THE DRY AIR INFLUX AND
INSTEAD INCREASING MOISTURE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE TWO MODELS COME BACK
TOGETHER SOMEWHAT LATE MONDAY HOWEVER...BUT IT IS AN INTERESTING
ANOMALY. THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BY THAT TIME DEVELOPING A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER WITH INCOMING DRY AIR TUESDAY...
BUT THE NET RESULT SEEMS SIMILAR...WITH STRONG UPSTREAM RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A TUESDAY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE DROP TO NEAR NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...WITH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXHIBITING DRY WEATHER AND A WEAK
WARMING TREND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
NEAR 9 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THURS NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE RGV ALLOWS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS BECOMING OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN IMPACT PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A FRONT
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET. A FEW
HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AROUND
MIDNIGHT BUT BY MID SATURDAY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...MOVING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS
WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A
FEW HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH MODERATE NORTH
WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WHILE SEAS REMAIN MODERATE THOUGH SLOWLY
DECREASING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WHILE A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON A LOW LATITUDE TRAJECTORY...SWINGING
OVER WEST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
MARINE WX SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN DRIER AIR OF SIMILAR
PRESSURE WILL DISPLACE THE PREVIOUS AIR MASS. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN CHANGING WINDS TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT DEEPENS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHILE THE GFS WAITS UNTIL
MONDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/51







000
FXUS64 KBRO 181127
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
527 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH OF THE VALLEY ACROSS
JIM HOGG AND STARR COUNTIES AND WILL STAY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS
TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY
AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
GREAT AT THIS TIME SO HAVE JUST VCSH TODAY FOR THE SITES. CONDS
SHOULD BE VFR TODAY BUT BRIEF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. PREDOMINATE MVFR RETURNS THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN JIM
HOGG/ZAPATA COUNTY THEN BACK WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. WINDS
NORTH AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND WINDS
IN THE VALLEY ARE FROM THE SOUTH. UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DOWN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH HEIGHT FALLS
OUT AHEAD OF IT AND PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM
OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE ON TRACK...AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEY AND AROUND 60 NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EDGES
CLOSER PLACING THE AREA IN INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND UPPER JET
DYNAMICS MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN
PLAY TODAY DUE TO THE MEANDERING FRONT DRAPED IN THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE AREA. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE PRESENT LEADING TO
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLE AS WELL AND SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE FOR
OUR FAR WESTERN SECTIONS FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A CHALLENGE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY OF MID/UPPER 60S AND UPPER 70S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY EAST OF HWY 281.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AS THE UPPER TOUGH GETS CLOSER THEN LIFT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TEXAS WILL LINK UP WITH
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND SWEEP THROUGH
OUR AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE THE LOWER VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE RANCH LANDS AS BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND A SLOW DECREASE TO THE CLOUDS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...LANDING MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S
WILL SEEM COOL. HIGH PRES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND ABOVE NRML TEMPS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND UNDERWAY.

ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO WEST TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LIFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.

AT THIS POINT THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DIVERGE IN SOME RESPECTS. THE
ECMWF DIGS A DEEPER TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
RESULT WILL BE PRESSURE FALLS SOUTH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH ARE
NOT SEEN BY THE GFS. WINDS ARE THUS PROGGED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST BY
THE ECMWF SOONER THAN THE GFS...ENDING THE DRY AIR INFLUX AND
INSTEAD INCREASING MOISTURE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE TWO MODELS COME BACK
TOGETHER SOMEWHAT LATE MONDAY HOWEVER...BUT IT IS AN INTERESTING
ANOMALY. THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BY THAT TIME DEVELOPING A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER WITH INCOMING DRY AIR TUESDAY...
BUT THE NET RESULT SEEMS SIMILAR...WITH STRONG UPSTREAM RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A TUESDAY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE DROP TO NEAR NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...WITH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXHIBITING DRY WEATHER AND A WEAK
WARMING TREND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
NEAR 9 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THURS NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE RGV ALLOWS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS BECOMING OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN IMPACT PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A FRONT
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET. A FEW
HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AROUND
MIDNIGHT BUT BY MID SATURDAY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...MOVING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS
WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A
FEW HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH MODERATE NORTH
WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WHILE SEAS REMAIN MODERATE THOUGH SLOWLY
DECREASING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WHILE A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON A LOW LATITUDE TRAJECTORY...SWINGING
OVER WEST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
MARINE WX SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN DRIER AIR OF SIMILAR
PRESSURE WILL DISPLACE THE PREVIOUS AIR MASS. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN CHANGING WINDS TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT DEEPENS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHILE THE GFS WAITS UNTIL
MONDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/51






000
FXUS64 KBRO 180932
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
332 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN JIM
HOGG/ZAPATA COUNTY THEN BACK WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. WINDS
NORTH AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND WINDS
IN THE VALLEY ARE FROM THE SOUTH. UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DOWN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH HEIGHT FALLS
OUT AHEAD OF IT AND PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM
OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE ON TRACK...AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEY AND AROUND 60 NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EDGES
CLOSER PLACING THE AREA IN INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND UPPER JET
DYNAMICS MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN
PLAY TODAY DUE TO THE MEANDERING FRONT DRAPED IN THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE AREA. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE PRESENT LEADING TO
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLE AS WELL AND SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE FOR
OUR FAR WESTERN SECTIONS FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A CHALLENGE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY OF MID/UPPER 60S AND UPPER 70S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY EAST OF HWY 281.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AS THE UPPER TOUGH GETS CLOSER THEN LIFT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TEXAS WILL LINK UP WITH
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND SWEEP THROUGH
OUR AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE THE LOWER VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE RANCH LANDS AS BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND A SLOW DECREASE TO THE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...LANDING MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S
WILL SEEM COOL. HIGH PRES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND ABOVE NRML TEMPS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND UNDERWAY.

ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO WEST TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LIFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.

AT THIS POINT THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DIVERGE IN SOME RESPECTS. THE
ECMWF DIGS A DEEPER TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
RESULT WILL BE PRESSURE FALLS SOUTH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH ARE
NOT SEEN BY THE GFS. WINDS ARE THUS PROGGED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST BY
THE ECMWF SOONER THAN THE GFS...ENDING THE DRY AIR INFLUX AND
INSTEAD INCREASING MOISTURE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE TWO MODELS COME BACK
TOGETHER SOMEWHAT LATE MONDAY HOWEVER...BUT IT IS AN INTERESTING
ANOMALY. THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BY THAT TIME DEVELOPING A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER WITH INCOMING DRY AIR TUESDAY...
BUT THE NET RESULT SEEMS SIMILAR...WITH STRONG UPSTREAM RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A TUESDAY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE DROP TO NEAR NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...WITH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXHIBITING DRY WEATHER AND A WEAK
WARMING TREND.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
NEAR 9 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THURS NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE RGV ALLOWS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS BECOMING OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN IMPACT PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A FRONT
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET. A FEW
HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AROUND
MIDNIGHT BUT BY MID SATURDAY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...MOVING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS
WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A
FEW HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH MODERATE NORTH
WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WHILE SEAS REMAIN MODERATE THOUGH SLOWLY
DECREASING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WHILE A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON A LOW LATITUDE TRAJECTORY...SWINGING
OVER WEST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
MARINE WX SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN DRIER AIR OF SIMILAR
PRESSURE WILL DISPLACE THE PREVIOUS AIR MASS. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN CHANGING WINDS TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT DEEPENS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHILE THE GFS WAITS UNTIL
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  67  76  55 /  20  20  30  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  66  77  55 /  20  20  30  10
HARLINGEN            78  66  78  53 /  20  30  30  10
MCALLEN              78  65  79  53 /  30  30  30  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      71  62  75  51 /  30  40  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  67  74  59 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/54





000
FXUS64 KBRO 180932
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
332 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN JIM
HOGG/ZAPATA COUNTY THEN BACK WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. WINDS
NORTH AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND WINDS
IN THE VALLEY ARE FROM THE SOUTH. UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DOWN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH HEIGHT FALLS
OUT AHEAD OF IT AND PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM
OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE ON TRACK...AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEY AND AROUND 60 NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EDGES
CLOSER PLACING THE AREA IN INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND UPPER JET
DYNAMICS MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN
PLAY TODAY DUE TO THE MEANDERING FRONT DRAPED IN THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE AREA. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE PRESENT LEADING TO
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLE AS WELL AND SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE FOR
OUR FAR WESTERN SECTIONS FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A CHALLENGE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY OF MID/UPPER 60S AND UPPER 70S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY EAST OF HWY 281.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AS THE UPPER TOUGH GETS CLOSER THEN LIFT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TEXAS WILL LINK UP WITH
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND SWEEP THROUGH
OUR AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE THE LOWER VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE RANCH LANDS AS BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND A SLOW DECREASE TO THE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...LANDING MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S
WILL SEEM COOL. HIGH PRES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND ABOVE NRML TEMPS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND UNDERWAY.

ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO WEST TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LIFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.

AT THIS POINT THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DIVERGE IN SOME RESPECTS. THE
ECMWF DIGS A DEEPER TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
RESULT WILL BE PRESSURE FALLS SOUTH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH ARE
NOT SEEN BY THE GFS. WINDS ARE THUS PROGGED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST BY
THE ECMWF SOONER THAN THE GFS...ENDING THE DRY AIR INFLUX AND
INSTEAD INCREASING MOISTURE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE TWO MODELS COME BACK
TOGETHER SOMEWHAT LATE MONDAY HOWEVER...BUT IT IS AN INTERESTING
ANOMALY. THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BY THAT TIME DEVELOPING A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER WITH INCOMING DRY AIR TUESDAY...
BUT THE NET RESULT SEEMS SIMILAR...WITH STRONG UPSTREAM RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A TUESDAY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE DROP TO NEAR NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...WITH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXHIBITING DRY WEATHER AND A WEAK
WARMING TREND.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
NEAR 9 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THURS NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE RGV ALLOWS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS BECOMING OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN IMPACT PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A FRONT
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET. A FEW
HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AROUND
MIDNIGHT BUT BY MID SATURDAY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...MOVING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS
WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A
FEW HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH MODERATE NORTH
WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WHILE SEAS REMAIN MODERATE THOUGH SLOWLY
DECREASING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WHILE A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON A LOW LATITUDE TRAJECTORY...SWINGING
OVER WEST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
MARINE WX SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN DRIER AIR OF SIMILAR
PRESSURE WILL DISPLACE THE PREVIOUS AIR MASS. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN CHANGING WINDS TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT DEEPENS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHILE THE GFS WAITS UNTIL
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  67  76  55 /  20  20  30  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  66  77  55 /  20  20  30  10
HARLINGEN            78  66  78  53 /  20  30  30  10
MCALLEN              78  65  79  53 /  30  30  30  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      71  62  75  51 /  30  40  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  67  74  59 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/54






000
FXUS64 KBRO 180504 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1104 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW AND MID CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
TONIGHT. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FEW HOURS
WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE THROUGH MID MORNING...AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG AN OLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY MID DAY AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE.
HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AT MFE DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG AN OLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
SITES AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE BY MID DAY AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER...MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT MFE DUE TO
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SATELLITE IMAGES AS
WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT IS STALLED
ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA EXCEPT ACROSS ZAPATA COUNTY WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT AFTER
IT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS
EVENING. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A 500MB TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY.
LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN TO STEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS AS A RESULT
AND ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THURS AFTERNOON INTO THURS NIGHT AS
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASES AND LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THURS NIGHT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALLOWS SOME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA. PATCHY FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURS MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS CLOSER TO THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT.

LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NM INTO TEXAS FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE GOOD UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA
THU TO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS EARLY FRIDAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH...NEXT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT PUSHING ALL
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA WITH NORTH WINDS QUICKLY
SHIFTING NORTHEAST AND EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD.

INTO SUNDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ENHANCING SHOWERS ACTIVITY. NEXT ELONGATED TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE CWA SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE
AGAIN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE LOW 70S. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEEPENS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
ELONGATED TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHERLY
WIND WILL INCREASE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. HIGH WILL SHIFT
QUICKLY TO THE EAST VEERING OUR WINDS TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA. IF THIS
PATTERN PREVAILS WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAYS ACROSS
THE RGV.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING AND STALLS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THURS NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE RGV ALLOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS FRIDAY WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE GULF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER END
SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY CONDITIONS
IMPROVE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST SHIFTING WINDS TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY WILL
LOW SEAS. INTO MONDAY ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS INCREASING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE TO SCEC CRITERIA WITH BUILDING SEAS. BY
TUESDAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH WITH DECENT GRADIENT WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS TO SCA
CRITERIA. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT  LIMITING ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63







000
FXUS64 KBRO 180504 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1104 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW AND MID CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
TONIGHT. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FEW HOURS
WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE THROUGH MID MORNING...AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG AN OLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY MID DAY AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE.
HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AT MFE DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG AN OLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
SITES AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE BY MID DAY AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER...MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT MFE DUE TO
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SATELLITE IMAGES AS
WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT IS STALLED
ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA EXCEPT ACROSS ZAPATA COUNTY WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT AFTER
IT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS
EVENING. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A 500MB TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY.
LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN TO STEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS AS A RESULT
AND ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THURS AFTERNOON INTO THURS NIGHT AS
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASES AND LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THURS NIGHT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALLOWS SOME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA. PATCHY FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURS MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS CLOSER TO THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT.

LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NM INTO TEXAS FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE GOOD UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA
THU TO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS EARLY FRIDAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH...NEXT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT PUSHING ALL
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA WITH NORTH WINDS QUICKLY
SHIFTING NORTHEAST AND EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD.

INTO SUNDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ENHANCING SHOWERS ACTIVITY. NEXT ELONGATED TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE CWA SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE
AGAIN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE LOW 70S. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEEPENS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
ELONGATED TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHERLY
WIND WILL INCREASE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. HIGH WILL SHIFT
QUICKLY TO THE EAST VEERING OUR WINDS TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA. IF THIS
PATTERN PREVAILS WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAYS ACROSS
THE RGV.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING AND STALLS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THURS NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE RGV ALLOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS FRIDAY WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE GULF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER END
SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY CONDITIONS
IMPROVE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST SHIFTING WINDS TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY WILL
LOW SEAS. INTO MONDAY ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS INCREASING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE TO SCEC CRITERIA WITH BUILDING SEAS. BY
TUESDAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH WITH DECENT GRADIENT WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS TO SCA
CRITERIA. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT  LIMITING ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63






000
FXUS64 KBRO 180000 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
600 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG AN OLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
SITES AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE BY MID DAY AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER...MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT MFE DUE TO
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SATELLITE IMAGES AS
WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT IS STALLED
ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA EXCEPT ACROSS ZAPATA COUNTY WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT AFTER
IT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS
EVENING. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A 500MB TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY.
LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN TO STEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS AS A RESULT
AND ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THURS AFTERNOON INTO THURS NIGHT AS
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASES AND LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THURS NIGHT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALLOWS SOME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA. PATCHY FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURS MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS CLOSER TO THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT.

LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NM INTO TEXAS FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE GOOD UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA
THU TO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS EARLY FRIDAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH...NEXT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT PUSHING ALL
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA WITH NORTH WINDS QUICKLY
SHIFTING NORTHEAST AND EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD.

INTO SUNDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ENHANCING SHOWERS ACTIVITY. NEXT ELONGATED TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE CWA SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE
AGAIN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE LOW 70S. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEEPENS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
ELONGATED TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHERLY
WIND WILL INCREASE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. HIGH WILL SHIFT
QUICKLY TO THE EAST VEERING OUR WINDS TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA. IF THIS
PATTERN PREVAILS WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAYS ACROSS
THE RGV.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING AND STALLS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THURS NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE RGV ALLOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS FRIDAY WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE GULF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER END
SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY CONDITIONS
IMPROVE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST SHIFTING WINDS TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY WILL
LOW SEAS. INTO MONDAY ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS INCREASING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE TO SCEC CRITERIA WITH BUILDING SEAS. BY
TUESDAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH WITH DECENT GRADIENT WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS TO SCA
CRITERIA. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT  LIMITING ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63







000
FXUS64 KBRO 180000 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
600 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG AN OLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
SITES AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE BY MID DAY AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER...MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT MFE DUE TO
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SATELLITE IMAGES AS
WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT IS STALLED
ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA EXCEPT ACROSS ZAPATA COUNTY WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT AFTER
IT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS
EVENING. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A 500MB TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY.
LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN TO STEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS AS A RESULT
AND ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THURS AFTERNOON INTO THURS NIGHT AS
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASES AND LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THURS NIGHT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALLOWS SOME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA. PATCHY FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURS MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS CLOSER TO THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT.

LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NM INTO TEXAS FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE GOOD UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA
THU TO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS EARLY FRIDAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH...NEXT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT PUSHING ALL
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA WITH NORTH WINDS QUICKLY
SHIFTING NORTHEAST AND EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD.

INTO SUNDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ENHANCING SHOWERS ACTIVITY. NEXT ELONGATED TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE CWA SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE
AGAIN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE LOW 70S. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEEPENS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
ELONGATED TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHERLY
WIND WILL INCREASE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. HIGH WILL SHIFT
QUICKLY TO THE EAST VEERING OUR WINDS TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA. IF THIS
PATTERN PREVAILS WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAYS ACROSS
THE RGV.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING AND STALLS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THURS NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE RGV ALLOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS FRIDAY WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE GULF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER END
SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY CONDITIONS
IMPROVE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST SHIFTING WINDS TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY WILL
LOW SEAS. INTO MONDAY ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS INCREASING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE TO SCEC CRITERIA WITH BUILDING SEAS. BY
TUESDAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH WITH DECENT GRADIENT WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS TO SCA
CRITERIA. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT  LIMITING ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63






000
FXUS64 KBRO 172048
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
248 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SATELLITE IMAGES AS
WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT IS STALLED
ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA EXCEPT ACROSS ZAPATA COUNTY WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT AFTER
IT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS
EVENING. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A 500MB TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY.
LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN TO STEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS AS A RESULT
AND ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THURS AFTERNOON INTO THURS NIGHT AS
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASES AND LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THURS NIGHT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALLOWS SOME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA. PATCHY FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURS MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS CLOSER TO THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NM INTO TEXAS FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE GOOD UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA
THU TO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS EARLY FRIDAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH...NEXT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT PUSHING ALL
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA WITH NORTH WINDS QUICKLY
SHIFTING NORTHEAST AND EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD.

INTO SUNDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ENHANCING SHOWERS ACTIVITY. NEXT ELONGATED TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE CWA SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE
AGAIN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE LOW 70S. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEEPENS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
ELONGATED TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHERLY
WIND WILL INCREASE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. HIGH WILL SHIFT
QUICKLY TO THE EAST VEERING OUR WINDS TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA. IF THIS
PATTERN PREVAILS WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAYS ACROSS
THE RGV.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING AND STALLS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THURS NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE RGV ALLOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS FRIDAY WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE GULF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER END
SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY CONDITIONS
IMPROVE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST SHIFTING WINDS TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY WILL
LOW SEAS. INTO MONDAY ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS INCREASING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE TO SCEC CRITERIA WITH BUILDING SEAS. BY
TUESDAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH WITH DECENT GRADIENT WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS TO SCA
CRITERIA. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT  LIMITING ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  68  76  66  76 /  10  20  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          67  77  66  77 /  10  20  20  30
HARLINGEN            66  78  65  77 /  10  20  30  30
MCALLEN              67  77  65  77 /  10  30  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      64  72  62  75 /  10  30  30  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   69  74  67  75 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/67







000
FXUS64 KBRO 172048
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
248 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SATELLITE IMAGES AS
WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT IS STALLED
ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA EXCEPT ACROSS ZAPATA COUNTY WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT AFTER
IT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS
EVENING. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A 500MB TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY.
LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN TO STEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS AS A RESULT
AND ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THURS AFTERNOON INTO THURS NIGHT AS
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASES AND LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THURS NIGHT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALLOWS SOME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA. PATCHY FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURS MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS CLOSER TO THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NM INTO TEXAS FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE GOOD UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA
THU TO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS EARLY FRIDAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH...NEXT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT PUSHING ALL
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA WITH NORTH WINDS QUICKLY
SHIFTING NORTHEAST AND EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD.

INTO SUNDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ENHANCING SHOWERS ACTIVITY. NEXT ELONGATED TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE CWA SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE
AGAIN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE LOW 70S. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEEPENS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
ELONGATED TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHERLY
WIND WILL INCREASE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. HIGH WILL SHIFT
QUICKLY TO THE EAST VEERING OUR WINDS TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA. IF THIS
PATTERN PREVAILS WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAYS ACROSS
THE RGV.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING AND STALLS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THURS NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE RGV ALLOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS FRIDAY WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE GULF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER END
SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY CONDITIONS
IMPROVE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST SHIFTING WINDS TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY WILL
LOW SEAS. INTO MONDAY ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS INCREASING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE TO SCEC CRITERIA WITH BUILDING SEAS. BY
TUESDAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH WITH DECENT GRADIENT WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS TO SCA
CRITERIA. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT  LIMITING ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  68  76  66  76 /  10  20  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          67  77  66  77 /  10  20  20  30
HARLINGEN            66  78  65  77 /  10  20  30  30
MCALLEN              67  77  65  77 /  10  30  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      64  72  62  75 /  10  30  30  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   69  74  67  75 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/67








000
FXUS64 KBRO 171800 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1200 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 300FT AT KAPY TO NEAR 4200FT AT KBKS.
VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 4SM WITH FOG AT KAPY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS LIFTS
NORTHWARD. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN TONIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG THE WARM FRONT DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA
TONIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IR SATL DEPICTS MULTILAYERED CLOUD DECKS STREAMING
MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE POCKETS
OF IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS BUT HARD TO SEE WITH SATL WITH SO MUCH MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD. WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE VALLEY
WITH WIND DIRECTIONS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH MORE NORTHEASTERLY
NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM HBV-BKS NORTHWARD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON 20-22 KNOTS. ASIDE
FROM TEMPO MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING...PREDOMINATE VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR WILL RETURN AFTER SUNSET AS COOLING
COMMENCES AND CLOUD DECKS LOWER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE RIVER
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
OCCURRING NOW WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWING A MOIST SFC-800 MB
LAYER UNDERNEATH DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RIDING
OVER EASTERLY SFC FLOW. BRO RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S
IN THE VALLEY TO AROUND 60 IN THE RANCH LANDS. MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO EXPAND CHANCE COVERAGE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BUT THAT WAS
ABOUT IT THROUGH 12Z.

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
TAKING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD WITH IT. SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS
RETURN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH AN UPTICK IN WINDS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. FURTHER
WEST ACROSS ZAPATA...TROUGHING WILL DEVELOPING WITH WINDS MAINLY
ON THE LIGHT SIDE TODAY. HIGHS WILL MAKE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS.

FRONT WILL HANG OUT NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER...LEE TROUGHING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE WEST AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVERSPREADING THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES COME BACK UP THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TEASE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT...
LYING OVER THE AREA AND MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
IN AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
UPSTREAM OVER WEST TEXAS WILL KEEP SOME DOWNSTREAM LIFT OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE BRO
CWA. NONETHELESS...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY AROUND MID DAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN
RAPIDLY LATE FRIDAY...CLEARING OUT UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE MODELS
APPEAR TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL DECREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...LANDING MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH SOME
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS AND BRUSH
COUNTRY. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S WILL
SEEM COOL. HIGH PRES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY
THOUGH A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BE UNDERWAY.

ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO WEST TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LIFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERING TO EAST. AS THE TROUGH CLEARS
TO THE EAST...DRIER AIR WILL AGAIN FILTER IN FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY IN THE 70S WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LVL
RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM. INDEED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE AS A
DRY FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH NORTH WINDS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 19 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MARINERS WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SEAS
FALLING TO AROUND 3 FEET.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN IMPACT PERIOD WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS NORTH WINDS BEHIND A FRONT
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET.
A FEW HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF WILL RETREAT
WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AS A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MDT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AROUND
MID DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WILL SET UP BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP. THE WEATHER WILL CLEAR UP FRIDAY
AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH MODERATE WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WHILE SEAS
REMAIN MDT THOUGH SLOWLY DECREASING. BY SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE EAST WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON
A LOW LATITUDE TRAJECTORY...SWINGING OVER WEST TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR OF SIMILAR PRESSURE ARRIVING
IN THE NORTH WEST GULF...SHIFTING WINDS MORE TO SOUTHEAST AGAIN.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/67/BIRCHFIELD







000
FXUS64 KBRO 171800 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1200 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 300FT AT KAPY TO NEAR 4200FT AT KBKS.
VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 4SM WITH FOG AT KAPY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS LIFTS
NORTHWARD. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN TONIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG THE WARM FRONT DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA
TONIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IR SATL DEPICTS MULTILAYERED CLOUD DECKS STREAMING
MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE POCKETS
OF IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS BUT HARD TO SEE WITH SATL WITH SO MUCH MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD. WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE VALLEY
WITH WIND DIRECTIONS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH MORE NORTHEASTERLY
NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM HBV-BKS NORTHWARD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON 20-22 KNOTS. ASIDE
FROM TEMPO MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING...PREDOMINATE VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR WILL RETURN AFTER SUNSET AS COOLING
COMMENCES AND CLOUD DECKS LOWER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE RIVER
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
OCCURRING NOW WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWING A MOIST SFC-800 MB
LAYER UNDERNEATH DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RIDING
OVER EASTERLY SFC FLOW. BRO RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S
IN THE VALLEY TO AROUND 60 IN THE RANCH LANDS. MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO EXPAND CHANCE COVERAGE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BUT THAT WAS
ABOUT IT THROUGH 12Z.

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
TAKING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD WITH IT. SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS
RETURN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH AN UPTICK IN WINDS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. FURTHER
WEST ACROSS ZAPATA...TROUGHING WILL DEVELOPING WITH WINDS MAINLY
ON THE LIGHT SIDE TODAY. HIGHS WILL MAKE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS.

FRONT WILL HANG OUT NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER...LEE TROUGHING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE WEST AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVERSPREADING THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES COME BACK UP THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TEASE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT...
LYING OVER THE AREA AND MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
IN AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
UPSTREAM OVER WEST TEXAS WILL KEEP SOME DOWNSTREAM LIFT OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE BRO
CWA. NONETHELESS...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY AROUND MID DAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN
RAPIDLY LATE FRIDAY...CLEARING OUT UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE MODELS
APPEAR TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL DECREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...LANDING MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH SOME
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS AND BRUSH
COUNTRY. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S WILL
SEEM COOL. HIGH PRES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY
THOUGH A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BE UNDERWAY.

ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO WEST TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LIFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERING TO EAST. AS THE TROUGH CLEARS
TO THE EAST...DRIER AIR WILL AGAIN FILTER IN FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY IN THE 70S WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LVL
RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM. INDEED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE AS A
DRY FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH NORTH WINDS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 19 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MARINERS WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SEAS
FALLING TO AROUND 3 FEET.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN IMPACT PERIOD WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS NORTH WINDS BEHIND A FRONT
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET.
A FEW HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF WILL RETREAT
WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AS A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MDT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AROUND
MID DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WILL SET UP BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP. THE WEATHER WILL CLEAR UP FRIDAY
AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH MODERATE WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WHILE SEAS
REMAIN MDT THOUGH SLOWLY DECREASING. BY SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE EAST WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON
A LOW LATITUDE TRAJECTORY...SWINGING OVER WEST TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR OF SIMILAR PRESSURE ARRIVING
IN THE NORTH WEST GULF...SHIFTING WINDS MORE TO SOUTHEAST AGAIN.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/67/BIRCHFIELD






000
FXUS64 KBRO 171131
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
531 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATL DEPICTS MULTILAYERED CLOUD DECKS STREAMING
MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE POCKETS
OF IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS BUT HARD TO SEE WITH SATL WITH SO MUCH MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD. WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE VALLEY
WITH WIND DIRECTIONS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH MORE NORTHEASTERLY
NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM HBV-BKS NORTHWARD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON 20-22 KNOTS. ASIDE
FROM TEMPO MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING...PREDOMINATE VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR WILL RETURN AFTER SUNSET AS COOLING
COMMENCES AND CLOUD DECKS LOWER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE RIVER
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
OCCURRING NOW WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWING A MOIST SFC-800 MB
LAYER UNDERNEATH DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RIDING
OVER EASTERLY SFC FLOW. BRO RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S
IN THE VALLEY TO AROUND 60 IN THE RANCH LANDS. MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO EXPAND CHANCE COVERAGE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BUT THAT WAS
ABOUT IT THROUGH 12Z.

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
TAKING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD WITH IT. SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS
RETURN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH AN UPTICK IN WINDS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. FURTHER
WEST ACROSS ZAPATA...TROUGHING WILL DEVELOPING WITH WINDS MAINLY
ON THE LIGHT SIDE TODAY. HIGHS WILL MAKE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS.

FRONT WILL HANG OUT NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER...LEE TROUGHING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE WEST AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVERSPREADING THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES COME BACK UP THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TEASE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT...
LYING OVER THE AREA AND MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
IN AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
UPSTREAM OVER WEST TEXAS WILL KEEP SOME DOWNSTREAM LIFT OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE BRO
CWA. NONETHELESS...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY AROUND MID DAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN
RAPIDLY LATE FRIDAY...CLEARING OUT UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE MODELS
APPEAR TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL DECREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...LANDING MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH SOME
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS AND BRUSH
COUNTRY. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S WILL
SEEM COOL. HIGH PRES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY
THOUGH A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BE UNDERWAY.

ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO WEST TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LIFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERING TO EAST. AS THE TROUGH CLEARS
TO THE EAST...DRIER AIR WILL AGAIN FILTER IN FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY IN THE 70S WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LVL
RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM. INDEED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE AS A
DRY FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH NORTH WINDS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 19 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MARINERS WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SEAS
FALLING TO AROUND 3 FEET.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN IMPACT PERIOD WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS NORTH WINDS BEHIND A FRONT
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET.
A FEW HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF WILL RETREAT
WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AS A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MDT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AROUND
MID DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WILL SET UP BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP. THE WEATHER WILL CLEAR UP FRIDAY
AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH MODERATE WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WHILE SEAS
REMAIN MDT THOUGH SLOWLY DECREASING. BY SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE EAST WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON
A LOW LATITUDE TRAJECTORY...SWINGING OVER WEST TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR OF SIMILAR PRESSURE ARRIVING
IN THE NORTH WEST GULF...SHIFTING WINDS MORE TO SOUTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55






000
FXUS64 KBRO 171131
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
531 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATL DEPICTS MULTILAYERED CLOUD DECKS STREAMING
MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE POCKETS
OF IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS BUT HARD TO SEE WITH SATL WITH SO MUCH MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD. WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE VALLEY
WITH WIND DIRECTIONS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH MORE NORTHEASTERLY
NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM HBV-BKS NORTHWARD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON 20-22 KNOTS. ASIDE
FROM TEMPO MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING...PREDOMINATE VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR WILL RETURN AFTER SUNSET AS COOLING
COMMENCES AND CLOUD DECKS LOWER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE RIVER
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
OCCURRING NOW WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWING A MOIST SFC-800 MB
LAYER UNDERNEATH DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RIDING
OVER EASTERLY SFC FLOW. BRO RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S
IN THE VALLEY TO AROUND 60 IN THE RANCH LANDS. MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO EXPAND CHANCE COVERAGE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BUT THAT WAS
ABOUT IT THROUGH 12Z.

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
TAKING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD WITH IT. SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS
RETURN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH AN UPTICK IN WINDS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. FURTHER
WEST ACROSS ZAPATA...TROUGHING WILL DEVELOPING WITH WINDS MAINLY
ON THE LIGHT SIDE TODAY. HIGHS WILL MAKE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS.

FRONT WILL HANG OUT NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER...LEE TROUGHING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE WEST AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVERSPREADING THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES COME BACK UP THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TEASE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT...
LYING OVER THE AREA AND MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
IN AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
UPSTREAM OVER WEST TEXAS WILL KEEP SOME DOWNSTREAM LIFT OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE BRO
CWA. NONETHELESS...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY AROUND MID DAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN
RAPIDLY LATE FRIDAY...CLEARING OUT UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE MODELS
APPEAR TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL DECREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...LANDING MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH SOME
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS AND BRUSH
COUNTRY. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S WILL
SEEM COOL. HIGH PRES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY
THOUGH A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BE UNDERWAY.

ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO WEST TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LIFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERING TO EAST. AS THE TROUGH CLEARS
TO THE EAST...DRIER AIR WILL AGAIN FILTER IN FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY IN THE 70S WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LVL
RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM. INDEED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE AS A
DRY FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH NORTH WINDS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 19 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MARINERS WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SEAS
FALLING TO AROUND 3 FEET.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN IMPACT PERIOD WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS NORTH WINDS BEHIND A FRONT
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET.
A FEW HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF WILL RETREAT
WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AS A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MDT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AROUND
MID DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WILL SET UP BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP. THE WEATHER WILL CLEAR UP FRIDAY
AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH MODERATE WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WHILE SEAS
REMAIN MDT THOUGH SLOWLY DECREASING. BY SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE EAST WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON
A LOW LATITUDE TRAJECTORY...SWINGING OVER WEST TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR OF SIMILAR PRESSURE ARRIVING
IN THE NORTH WEST GULF...SHIFTING WINDS MORE TO SOUTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55







000
FXUS64 KBRO 170950
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
350 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE RIVER
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
OCCURRING NOW WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWING A MOIST SFC-800 MB
LAYER UNDERNEATH DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RIDING
OVER EASTERLY SFC FLOW. BRO RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S
IN THE VALLEY TO AROUND 60 IN THE RANCH LANDS. MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO EXPAND CHANCE COVERAGE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BUT THAT WAS
ABOUT IT THROUGH 12Z.

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
TAKING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD WITH IT. SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS
RETURN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH AN UPTICK IN WINDS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. FURTHER
WEST ACROSS ZAPATA...TROUGHING WILL DEVELOPING WITH WINDS MAINLY
ON THE LIGHT SIDE TODAY. HIGHS WILL MAKE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS.

FRONT WILL HANG OUT NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER...LEE TROUGHING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE WEST AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVERSPREADING THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES COME BACK UP THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TEASE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT...
LYING OVER THE AREA AND MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
IN AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
UPSTREAM OVER WEST TEXAS WILL KEEP SOME DOWNSTREAM LIFT OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE BRO
CWA. NONETHELESS...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY AROUND MID DAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN
RAPIDLY LATE FRIDAY...CLEARING OUT UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE MODELS
APPEAR TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL DECREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...LANDING MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH SOME
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS AND BRUSH
COUNTRY. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S WILL
SEEM COOL. HIGH PRES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY
THOUGH A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BE UNDERWAY.

ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO WEST TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LIFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERING TO EAST. AS THE TROUGH CLEARS
TO THE EAST...DRIER AIR WILL AGAIN FILTER IN FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY IN THE 70S WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LVL
RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM. INDEED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE AS A
DRY FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH NORTH WINDS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 19 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MARINERS WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SEAS
FALLING TO AROUND 3 FEET.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN IMPACT PERIOD WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS NORTH WINDS BEHIND A FRONT
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET.
A FEW HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF WILL RETREAT
WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AS A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MDT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AROUND
MID DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WILL SET UP BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP. THE WEATHER WILL CLEAR UP FRIDAY
AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH MODERATE WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WHILE SEAS
REMAIN MDT THOUGH SLOWLY DECREASING. BY SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE EAST WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON
A LOW LATITUDE TRAJECTORY...SWINGING OVER WEST TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR OF SIMILAR PRESSURE ARRIVING
IN THE NORTH WEST GULF...SHIFTING WINDS MORE TO SOUTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  67  76  66 /  20  10  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          77  67  78  66 /  20  10  20  20
HARLINGEN            78  64  78  65 /  20  10  20  20
MCALLEN              79  65  78  65 /  30  10  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  63  72  61 /  30  10  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  68  74  68 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/54






000
FXUS64 KBRO 170950
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
350 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE RIVER
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
OCCURRING NOW WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWING A MOIST SFC-800 MB
LAYER UNDERNEATH DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RIDING
OVER EASTERLY SFC FLOW. BRO RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S
IN THE VALLEY TO AROUND 60 IN THE RANCH LANDS. MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO EXPAND CHANCE COVERAGE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BUT THAT WAS
ABOUT IT THROUGH 12Z.

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
TAKING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD WITH IT. SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS
RETURN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH AN UPTICK IN WINDS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. FURTHER
WEST ACROSS ZAPATA...TROUGHING WILL DEVELOPING WITH WINDS MAINLY
ON THE LIGHT SIDE TODAY. HIGHS WILL MAKE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS.

FRONT WILL HANG OUT NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER...LEE TROUGHING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE WEST AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVERSPREADING THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES COME BACK UP THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TEASE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT...
LYING OVER THE AREA AND MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
IN AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
UPSTREAM OVER WEST TEXAS WILL KEEP SOME DOWNSTREAM LIFT OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE BRO
CWA. NONETHELESS...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY AROUND MID DAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN
RAPIDLY LATE FRIDAY...CLEARING OUT UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE MODELS
APPEAR TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL DECREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...LANDING MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH SOME
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS AND BRUSH
COUNTRY. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S WILL
SEEM COOL. HIGH PRES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY
THOUGH A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BE UNDERWAY.

ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO WEST TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LIFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERING TO EAST. AS THE TROUGH CLEARS
TO THE EAST...DRIER AIR WILL AGAIN FILTER IN FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY IN THE 70S WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LVL
RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM. INDEED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE AS A
DRY FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH NORTH WINDS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 19 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MARINERS WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SEAS
FALLING TO AROUND 3 FEET.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN IMPACT PERIOD WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS NORTH WINDS BEHIND A FRONT
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET.
A FEW HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF WILL RETREAT
WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AS A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MDT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AROUND
MID DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WILL SET UP BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP. THE WEATHER WILL CLEAR UP FRIDAY
AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH MODERATE WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WHILE SEAS
REMAIN MDT THOUGH SLOWLY DECREASING. BY SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE EAST WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON
A LOW LATITUDE TRAJECTORY...SWINGING OVER WEST TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR OF SIMILAR PRESSURE ARRIVING
IN THE NORTH WEST GULF...SHIFTING WINDS MORE TO SOUTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  67  76  66 /  20  10  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          77  67  78  66 /  20  10  20  20
HARLINGEN            78  64  78  65 /  20  10  20  20
MCALLEN              79  65  78  65 /  30  10  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  63  72  61 /  30  10  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  68  74  68 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/54





000
FXUS64 KBRO 170950
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
350 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE RIVER
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
OCCURRING NOW WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWING A MOIST SFC-800 MB
LAYER UNDERNEATH DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RIDING
OVER EASTERLY SFC FLOW. BRO RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S
IN THE VALLEY TO AROUND 60 IN THE RANCH LANDS. MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO EXPAND CHANCE COVERAGE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BUT THAT WAS
ABOUT IT THROUGH 12Z.

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
TAKING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD WITH IT. SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS
RETURN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH AN UPTICK IN WINDS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. FURTHER
WEST ACROSS ZAPATA...TROUGHING WILL DEVELOPING WITH WINDS MAINLY
ON THE LIGHT SIDE TODAY. HIGHS WILL MAKE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS.

FRONT WILL HANG OUT NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER...LEE TROUGHING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE WEST AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVERSPREADING THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES COME BACK UP THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TEASE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT...
LYING OVER THE AREA AND MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
IN AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
UPSTREAM OVER WEST TEXAS WILL KEEP SOME DOWNSTREAM LIFT OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE BRO
CWA. NONETHELESS...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY AROUND MID DAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN
RAPIDLY LATE FRIDAY...CLEARING OUT UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE MODELS
APPEAR TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL DECREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...LANDING MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH SOME
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS AND BRUSH
COUNTRY. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S WILL
SEEM COOL. HIGH PRES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY
THOUGH A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BE UNDERWAY.

ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO WEST TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LIFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERING TO EAST. AS THE TROUGH CLEARS
TO THE EAST...DRIER AIR WILL AGAIN FILTER IN FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY IN THE 70S WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LVL
RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM. INDEED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE AS A
DRY FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH NORTH WINDS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 19 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MARINERS WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SEAS
FALLING TO AROUND 3 FEET.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN IMPACT PERIOD WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS NORTH WINDS BEHIND A FRONT
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET.
A FEW HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF WILL RETREAT
WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AS A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MDT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AROUND
MID DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WILL SET UP BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP. THE WEATHER WILL CLEAR UP FRIDAY
AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH MODERATE WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WHILE SEAS
REMAIN MDT THOUGH SLOWLY DECREASING. BY SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE EAST WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON
A LOW LATITUDE TRAJECTORY...SWINGING OVER WEST TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR OF SIMILAR PRESSURE ARRIVING
IN THE NORTH WEST GULF...SHIFTING WINDS MORE TO SOUTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  67  76  66 /  20  10  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          77  67  78  66 /  20  10  20  20
HARLINGEN            78  64  78  65 /  20  10  20  20
MCALLEN              79  65  78  65 /  30  10  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  63  72  61 /  30  10  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  68  74  68 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/54





000
FXUS64 KBRO 170950
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
350 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE RIVER
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
OCCURRING NOW WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWING A MOIST SFC-800 MB
LAYER UNDERNEATH DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RIDING
OVER EASTERLY SFC FLOW. BRO RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S
IN THE VALLEY TO AROUND 60 IN THE RANCH LANDS. MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO EXPAND CHANCE COVERAGE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BUT THAT WAS
ABOUT IT THROUGH 12Z.

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
TAKING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD WITH IT. SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS
RETURN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH AN UPTICK IN WINDS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. FURTHER
WEST ACROSS ZAPATA...TROUGHING WILL DEVELOPING WITH WINDS MAINLY
ON THE LIGHT SIDE TODAY. HIGHS WILL MAKE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS.

FRONT WILL HANG OUT NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER...LEE TROUGHING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE WEST AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVERSPREADING THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES COME BACK UP THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TEASE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT...
LYING OVER THE AREA AND MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
IN AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
UPSTREAM OVER WEST TEXAS WILL KEEP SOME DOWNSTREAM LIFT OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE BRO
CWA. NONETHELESS...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY AROUND MID DAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN
RAPIDLY LATE FRIDAY...CLEARING OUT UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE MODELS
APPEAR TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL DECREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...LANDING MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH SOME
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS AND BRUSH
COUNTRY. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S WILL
SEEM COOL. HIGH PRES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY
THOUGH A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BE UNDERWAY.

ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO WEST TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LIFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERING TO EAST. AS THE TROUGH CLEARS
TO THE EAST...DRIER AIR WILL AGAIN FILTER IN FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY IN THE 70S WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LVL
RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM. INDEED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE AS A
DRY FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH NORTH WINDS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 19 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MARINERS WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SEAS
FALLING TO AROUND 3 FEET.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN IMPACT PERIOD WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS NORTH WINDS BEHIND A FRONT
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET.
A FEW HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF WILL RETREAT
WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AS A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MDT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AROUND
MID DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WILL SET UP BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP. THE WEATHER WILL CLEAR UP FRIDAY
AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH MODERATE WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WHILE SEAS
REMAIN MDT THOUGH SLOWLY DECREASING. BY SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE EAST WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON
A LOW LATITUDE TRAJECTORY...SWINGING OVER WEST TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR OF SIMILAR PRESSURE ARRIVING
IN THE NORTH WEST GULF...SHIFTING WINDS MORE TO SOUTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  67  76  66 /  20  10  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          77  67  78  66 /  20  10  20  20
HARLINGEN            78  64  78  65 /  20  10  20  20
MCALLEN              79  65  78  65 /  30  10  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  63  72  61 /  30  10  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  68  74  68 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/54






000
FXUS64 KBRO 170523
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1123 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FAIRLY RAGGED SC DECK HAS
FORMED UP ACROSS THE RGV RESULTING IN SOME VFR CEILINGS OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING. AS THE SE LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO RETURN OVER
THE REGION WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING BACK UP TO THE NORTH
EXPECT THE WAA NEAR THE SURFACE TO KEEP THE CEILINGS FAIRLY HIGH
BASED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PGF WILL ALSO STAY BRISK ENOUGH
TO LIMIT ANY IFR CEILINGS OR VSBYS. HOWEVER WILL MENTION SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR MVFR CEILINGS TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE PGF
THEN PICKS UP AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW WHICH WILL THEN COMBINE WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING TO KEEP ANY CLD DECKS FAIRLY HIGH BASED AT
MVFR/VFR LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY SATURATED SOUNDING
MAINLY BETWEEN THE 850 MB TO 950 MB LEVEL. THE NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR DEEP SOUTH TX
SHOWS THAT THE LOWER ATMS LEVELS WILL REMAIN SATURATED
AS THE OLD FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND ALLOWS A
RETURNING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
POTENTIAL IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ON AFTER 06Z THROUGH SUNRISE WED.
AFTER SUNRISE FORECAST SOUNDINGS THEN INDICATE PRETTY DECENT
DRYING OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMS WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
CEILINGS TO IMPROVE BACK UP MVFR/VFR LEVELS LATE IN THE CURRENT
TAF PACKAGE. WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS LAMP AND NAM TAF GUIDANCE
WHICH ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC OF BOTH THE CEILINGS AND VSBYS FOR THE
RGV.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...COLD FRONT ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND BEGIN MOVING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SLIGHTLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD.
THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE COASTAL BEND WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC COAST WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL INVIGORATING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL ENHANCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PULL NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE BEST
AND HIGHER POPS ARE LOCATED. LEAN TOWARDS THE BETTER AND HIGHER POP
ABOVE 30 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WE WILL STILL BE UNDER SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LVL
CLOUDS THURSDAY MAINTAINING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND COASTAL COUNTIES WHILE TO THE WEST IN THE
LOW 70 DEGREES. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH EXITS THE CWA WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. DRY AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN LOWERING POPS AND BRINGING A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S BUT WILL DROP
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REACHED THE LOW TO MID 50S
ALONG THE RIVER AND TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE UPPER 40S WITH
NO CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE PLEASANT ONLY REACHING THE MID 60S ACROSS THE CWA
BOTH DAYS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DEVELOPS
AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS ACROSS TEXAS AND MOST OF NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AND CROSS THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF 12Z MODEL
RUN WHERE GFS HAS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. LEFT INHERITED 20 POPS FOR MONDAY AS THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 6 FEET WITH
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 19 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO
RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. WILL WORD SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS TO REPLACE SCA THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE EAST WINDS TONIGHT
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WED AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EARLY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AN
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS BY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE SE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY TO SCEC
LEVEL AND SHIFT NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCA POSSIBLE
BUILDING SEAS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. BY THE WEEKEND...DRY
AIR FILTERS INTO THE GULF WATERS AND THE WINDS AND SEAS HIGH EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND BUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER RETURNING TO 4 TO 5 FEET. LATE INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES OUR AREA ALLOWING FOR EAST WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. LEFT SEAS CLOSE TO 6 FEET AND WINDS INCREASE
CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60






000
FXUS64 KBRO 170523
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1123 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FAIRLY RAGGED SC DECK HAS
FORMED UP ACROSS THE RGV RESULTING IN SOME VFR CEILINGS OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING. AS THE SE LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO RETURN OVER
THE REGION WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING BACK UP TO THE NORTH
EXPECT THE WAA NEAR THE SURFACE TO KEEP THE CEILINGS FAIRLY HIGH
BASED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PGF WILL ALSO STAY BRISK ENOUGH
TO LIMIT ANY IFR CEILINGS OR VSBYS. HOWEVER WILL MENTION SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR MVFR CEILINGS TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE PGF
THEN PICKS UP AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW WHICH WILL THEN COMBINE WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING TO KEEP ANY CLD DECKS FAIRLY HIGH BASED AT
MVFR/VFR LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY SATURATED SOUNDING
MAINLY BETWEEN THE 850 MB TO 950 MB LEVEL. THE NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR DEEP SOUTH TX
SHOWS THAT THE LOWER ATMS LEVELS WILL REMAIN SATURATED
AS THE OLD FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND ALLOWS A
RETURNING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
POTENTIAL IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ON AFTER 06Z THROUGH SUNRISE WED.
AFTER SUNRISE FORECAST SOUNDINGS THEN INDICATE PRETTY DECENT
DRYING OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMS WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
CEILINGS TO IMPROVE BACK UP MVFR/VFR LEVELS LATE IN THE CURRENT
TAF PACKAGE. WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS LAMP AND NAM TAF GUIDANCE
WHICH ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC OF BOTH THE CEILINGS AND VSBYS FOR THE
RGV.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...COLD FRONT ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND BEGIN MOVING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SLIGHTLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD.
THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE COASTAL BEND WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC COAST WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL INVIGORATING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL ENHANCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PULL NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE BEST
AND HIGHER POPS ARE LOCATED. LEAN TOWARDS THE BETTER AND HIGHER POP
ABOVE 30 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WE WILL STILL BE UNDER SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LVL
CLOUDS THURSDAY MAINTAINING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND COASTAL COUNTIES WHILE TO THE WEST IN THE
LOW 70 DEGREES. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH EXITS THE CWA WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. DRY AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN LOWERING POPS AND BRINGING A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S BUT WILL DROP
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REACHED THE LOW TO MID 50S
ALONG THE RIVER AND TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE UPPER 40S WITH
NO CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE PLEASANT ONLY REACHING THE MID 60S ACROSS THE CWA
BOTH DAYS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DEVELOPS
AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS ACROSS TEXAS AND MOST OF NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AND CROSS THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF 12Z MODEL
RUN WHERE GFS HAS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. LEFT INHERITED 20 POPS FOR MONDAY AS THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 6 FEET WITH
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 19 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO
RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. WILL WORD SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS TO REPLACE SCA THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE EAST WINDS TONIGHT
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WED AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EARLY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AN
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS BY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE SE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY TO SCEC
LEVEL AND SHIFT NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCA POSSIBLE
BUILDING SEAS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. BY THE WEEKEND...DRY
AIR FILTERS INTO THE GULF WATERS AND THE WINDS AND SEAS HIGH EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND BUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER RETURNING TO 4 TO 5 FEET. LATE INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES OUR AREA ALLOWING FOR EAST WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. LEFT SEAS CLOSE TO 6 FEET AND WINDS INCREASE
CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60







000
FXUS64 KBRO 170052 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
652 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY SATURATED SOUNDING
MAINLY BETWEEN THE 850 MB TO 950 MB LEVEL. THE NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR DEEP SOUTH TX
SHOWS THAT THE LOWER ATMS LEVELS WILL REMAIN SATURATED
AS THE OLD FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND ALLOWS A
RETURNING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
POTENTIAL IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ON AFTER 06Z THROUGH SUNRISE WED.
AFTER SUNRISE FORECAST SOUNDINGS THEN INDICATE PRETTY DECENT
DRYING OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMS WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
CEILINGS TO IMPROVE BACK UP MVFR/VFR LEVELS LATE IN THE CURRENT
TAF PACKAGE. WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS LAMP AND NAM TAF GUIDANCE
WHICH ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC OF BOTH THE CEILINGS AND VSBYS FOR THE
RGV.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...COLD FRONT ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND BEGIN MOVING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SLIGHTLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD.
THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE COASTAL BEND WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC COAST WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL INVIGORATING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL ENHANCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PULL NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE BEST
AND HIGHER POPS ARE LOCATED. LEAN TOWARDS THE BETTER AND HIGHER POP
ABOVE 30 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WE WILL STILL BE UNDER SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LVL
CLOUDS THURSDAY MAINTAINING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND COASTAL COUNTIES WHILE TO THE WEST IN THE
LOW 70 DEGREES. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH EXITS THE CWA WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. DRY AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN LOWERING POPS AND BRINGING A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S BUT WILL DROP
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REACHED THE LOW TO MID 50S
ALONG THE RIVER AND TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE UPPER 40S WITH
NO CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE PLEASANT ONLY REACHING THE MID 60S ACROSS THE CWA
BOTH DAYS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DEVELOPS
AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS ACROSS TEXAS AND MOST OF NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AND CROSS THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF 12Z MODEL
RUN WHERE GFS HAS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. LEFT INHERITED 20 POPS FOR MONDAY AS THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 6 FEET WITH
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 19 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO
RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. WILL WORD SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS TO REPLACE SCA THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE EAST WINDS TONIGHT
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WED AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EARLY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AN
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS BY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE SE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY TO SCEC
LEVEL AND SHIFT NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCA POSSIBLE
BUILDING SEAS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. BY THE WEEKEND...DRY
AIR FILTERS INTO THE GULF WATERS AND THE WINDS AND SEAS HIGH EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND BUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER RETURNING TO 4 TO 5 FEET. LATE INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES OUR AREA ALLOWING FOR EAST WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. LEFT SEAS CLOSE TO 6 FEET AND WINDS INCREASE
CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  66  75  67  76 /  30  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          65  76  66  77 /  30  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            64  76  65  77 /  30  20  20  20
MCALLEN              64  77  66  77 /  30  30  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      61  75  62  73 /  30  30  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   67  74  68  74 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 170052 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
652 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY SATURATED SOUNDING
MAINLY BETWEEN THE 850 MB TO 950 MB LEVEL. THE NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR DEEP SOUTH TX
SHOWS THAT THE LOWER ATMS LEVELS WILL REMAIN SATURATED
AS THE OLD FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND ALLOWS A
RETURNING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
POTENTIAL IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ON AFTER 06Z THROUGH SUNRISE WED.
AFTER SUNRISE FORECAST SOUNDINGS THEN INDICATE PRETTY DECENT
DRYING OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMS WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
CEILINGS TO IMPROVE BACK UP MVFR/VFR LEVELS LATE IN THE CURRENT
TAF PACKAGE. WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS LAMP AND NAM TAF GUIDANCE
WHICH ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC OF BOTH THE CEILINGS AND VSBYS FOR THE
RGV.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...COLD FRONT ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND BEGIN MOVING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SLIGHTLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD.
THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE COASTAL BEND WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC COAST WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL INVIGORATING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL ENHANCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PULL NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE BEST
AND HIGHER POPS ARE LOCATED. LEAN TOWARDS THE BETTER AND HIGHER POP
ABOVE 30 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WE WILL STILL BE UNDER SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LVL
CLOUDS THURSDAY MAINTAINING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND COASTAL COUNTIES WHILE TO THE WEST IN THE
LOW 70 DEGREES. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH EXITS THE CWA WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. DRY AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN LOWERING POPS AND BRINGING A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S BUT WILL DROP
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REACHED THE LOW TO MID 50S
ALONG THE RIVER AND TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE UPPER 40S WITH
NO CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE PLEASANT ONLY REACHING THE MID 60S ACROSS THE CWA
BOTH DAYS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DEVELOPS
AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS ACROSS TEXAS AND MOST OF NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AND CROSS THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF 12Z MODEL
RUN WHERE GFS HAS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. LEFT INHERITED 20 POPS FOR MONDAY AS THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 6 FEET WITH
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 19 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO
RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. WILL WORD SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS TO REPLACE SCA THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE EAST WINDS TONIGHT
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WED AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EARLY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AN
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS BY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE SE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY TO SCEC
LEVEL AND SHIFT NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCA POSSIBLE
BUILDING SEAS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. BY THE WEEKEND...DRY
AIR FILTERS INTO THE GULF WATERS AND THE WINDS AND SEAS HIGH EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND BUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER RETURNING TO 4 TO 5 FEET. LATE INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES OUR AREA ALLOWING FOR EAST WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. LEFT SEAS CLOSE TO 6 FEET AND WINDS INCREASE
CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  66  75  67  76 /  30  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          65  76  66  77 /  30  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            64  76  65  77 /  30  20  20  20
MCALLEN              64  77  66  77 /  30  30  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      61  75  62  73 /  30  30  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   67  74  68  74 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ






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