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000
FXUS64 KBRO 242359 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
659 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. THE INVERSION WILL
TRAP MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE AND A BRING LOW CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE
AREA WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AROUND 03Z. LIGHTER WINDS AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION
AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 AND 14Z
FRIDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MID
MORNING WITH FULLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 19Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 126 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS THE DRY LINE MIXES DOWN DRY AIR ALOFT. EXPECT
WINDS TO WEAKEN AS THE DRY LINES MIGRATES EAST ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER
NORTHEAST WINDS TO ARRIVE. SE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RETURN THIS
EVENING WITH DRY LINE RETROGRADING WEST PULLING IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ACROSS THE CWA. LATEST PWAT VALUES PERCENT OF NORMAL SHOW AN OF 125
AND IT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG TO DEVELOP INLAND AND
SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO DETERIORATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DEGRADE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REAMING IN THE MID TO LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA.

BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE BTWN 10 TO 15 MPH
DIMINISHING FOG AND IMPROVING VISIBILITY ACROSS THE CWA. STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEY WITH THE DRIER AIR
BEHIND THE DRY LINE. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S...WITH AREAS
ALONG THE COAST WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. DRY LINE RETROGRADES
INLAND OVERNIGHT PULLING MOISTURE WITH ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL YIELD FOR MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
MID TO LOW 70S.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON SATURDAY...WITH
PRESSURE FALLS AND CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE
ENSUING TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER
DEEP SOUTH TX AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE BREEZY AND POSSIBLY
WINDY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST GOING UP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SETTING UP SUBSIDENCE AND
WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE 80S NEAR THE COAST TO NEAR 100 FAR WEST.
THESE TEMPS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL OUT WEST...BUT WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD NOT INCH TOO MUCH
ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK IN ANY PARTICULAR SPOT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE MAIN ENERGY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA...
AND RIGHT NOW NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. DRIER AIR WILL ALREADY
PRECEDE THE FRONT...LIMITING THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
NONETHELESS THIS PERIOD LOOKS THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ROGUE CELLS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. ONCE SUNDAY ARRIVES HOWEVER...
VERY DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...WITH HOT...DRY WEATHER
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
RANGE FIVE TO FIFTEEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM EAST TO WEST...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW...IN THE TEENS OUT WEST...
LIMITING HEAT INDEX VALUES. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ALSO BE
MUTED AS 20 FT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART.

THE INITIAL DRY AIR OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER SURGE ON TUESDAY...WITH NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUDINESS. ONCE AGAIN PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE AREA
BUT NOW IT WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH AND ALSO OFFSHORE. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE HOWEVER. THE
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OVER THE CWA WILL POOL MOISTURE AND TRIGGER
SHOWERS JUST TO THE SOUTH. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
TAP FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH...HOWEVER...WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
15 KNOTS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EAST. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER
NIGHT WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO MOVE
INLAND AND FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. SEAS WILL
LOWER FROM 4 TO 2 FEET OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BY THE EVENING LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW SEAS. NO SCEC OR SCA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE ROOTED OVER
EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...EXTENDING NORTH. A NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE
TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH
DOWNSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE RESULT
WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH BUILDING
SEAS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY AS A
MINIMUM DURING THE DAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS APPROACHING 20 KTS.
A LOW LEVEL JET WILL SFC...OR MIX DOWN...OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUMPING GULF CONDITIONS UP INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITION TERRITORY. THE ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY WITH 20 KT SOUTH SOUTH EAST WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FEET WAVE
HEIGHTS. AN ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED ON THE LAGUNA SUNDAY. A
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATER AND ASSOCIATED LOWER WIND SPEEDS.
ENERGY WITH THE ASSOCIATED SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH...
WITH LITTLE IMPACT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FILL IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...WITH MARINE WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF
WILL TIGHTEN AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES...WITH 20 KT NORTH WINDS
REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  71  84  73  87 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          72  86  73  88 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            72  89  72  91 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              71  93  73  95 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      72  95  73  97 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   72  80  73  80 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63







000
FXUS64 KBRO 241826
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
126 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS THE DRY LINE MIXES DOWN DRY AIR ALOFT. EXPECT
WINDS TO WEAKEN AS THE DRY LINES MIGRATES EAST ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER
NORTHEAST WINDS TO ARRIVE. SE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RETURN THIS
EVENING WITH DRY LINE RETROGRADING WEST PULLING IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ACROSS THE CWA. LATEST PWAT VALUES PERCENT OF NORMAL SHOW AN OF 125
AND IT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG TO DEVELOP INLAND AND
SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO DETERIORATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DEGRADE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REAMING IN THE MID TO LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA.

BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE BTWN 10 TO 15 MPH
DIMINISHING FOG AND IMPROVING VISIBILITY ACROSS THE CWA. STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEY WITH THE DRIER AIR
BEHIND THE DRY LINE. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S...WITH AREAS
ALONG THE COAST WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. DRY LINE RETROGRADES
INLAND OVERNIGHT PULLING MOISTURE WITH ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL YIELD FOR MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
MID TO LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON SATURDAY...WITH
PRESSURE FALLS AND CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE
ENSUING TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER
DEEP SOUTH TX AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE BREEZY AND POSSIBLY
WINDY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST GOING UP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SETTING UP SUBSIDENCE AND
WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE 80S NEAR THE COAST TO NEAR 100 FAR WEST.
THESE TEMPS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL OUT WEST...BUT WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD NOT INCH TOO MUCH
ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK IN ANY PARTICULAR SPOT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE MAIN ENERGY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA...
AND RIGHT NOW NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. DRIER AIR WILL ALREADY
PRECEDE THE FRONT...LIMITING THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
NONETHELESS THIS PERIOD LOOKS THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ROGUE CELLS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. ONCE SUNDAY ARRIVES HOWEVER...
VERY DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...WITH HOT...DRY WEATHER
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
RANGE FIVE TO FIFTEEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM EAST TO WEST...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW...IN THE TEENS OUT WEST...
LIMITING HEAT INDEX VALUES. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ALSO BE
MUTED AS 20 FT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART.

THE INITIAL DRY AIR OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER SURGE ON TUESDAY...WITH NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUDINESS. ONCE AGAIN PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE AREA
BUT NOW IT WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH AND ALSO OFFSHORE. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE HOWEVER. THE
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OVER THE CWA WILL POOL MOISTURE AND TRIGGER
SHOWERS JUST TO THE SOUTH. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
TAP FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH...HOWEVER...WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
15 KNOTS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EAST. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER
NIGHT WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO MOVE
INLAND AND FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. SEAS WILL
LOWER FROM 4 TO 2 FEET OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BY THE EVENING LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW SEAS. NO SCEC OR SCA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE ROOTED OVER
EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...EXTENDING NORTH. A NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE
TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH
DOWNSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE RESULT
WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH BUILDING
SEAS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY AS A
MINIMUM DURING THE DAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS APPROACHING 20 KTS.
A LOW LEVEL JET WILL SFC...OR MIX DOWN...OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUMPING GULF CONDITIONS UP INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITION TERRITORY. THE ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY WITH 20 KT SOUTH SOUTH EAST WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FEET WAVE
HEIGHTS. AN ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED ON THE LAGUNA SUNDAY. A
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATER AND ASSOCIATED LOWER WIND SPEEDS.
ENERGY WITH THE ASSOCIATED SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH...
WITH LITTLE IMPACT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FILL IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...WITH MARINE WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF
WILL TIGHTEN AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES...WITH 20 KT NORTH WINDS
REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  71  84  73  87 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          72  86  73  88 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            72  89  72  91 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              71  93  73  95 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      72  95  73  97 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   72  80  73  80 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/54/58






000
FXUS64 KBRO 241732
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1232 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MIX DRIER AIR ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SFC...HELPING TO MIX OUT CLOUD COVER. WINDS DECREASE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR KMFE AS DRY LINE DRIFTS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST. INVERSION WILL TRAP
MOISTURE AT THE SFC...BRINGING LOW CLOUD DECK MORE WIDESPREAD.
LIGHTER WINDS AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL ALLOW FOG FORMATION
AFTER MIDNIGHT LOWERING CEILINGS AND REDUCING VISIBILITY THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IT MAY BE AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT FOR
KMFE... KHRL AND KBRO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION....SW FLOW ALOFT HAS KEPT DRIER AIR ACROSS INLAND
AREAS...KEEPING CLOUD COVER THINNER. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS SE
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS UP TO 5000 FEET WITH LOW LEVEL JET OVER
THE RGV. BREEZY CONDITIONS INCREASE TODAY...REACHING 18 TO 20KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MIX DRIER AIR ALOFT
DOWN TO THE SFC...HELPING TO MIX OUT CLOUD COVER. WINDS DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR KMFE AS DRYLINE DRIFTS IN FRO THE WEST.
WINDS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST. INVERSION WILL
TRAP MOISTURE AT THE SFC...BRINGING LOW CLOUD DECK MORE WIDESPREAD.
SOME FOG FORMATION MAY BE AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT FOR KMFE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS
MORNING IS THE VARIABLE WINDS AREAWIDE. THE DAY WILL BEGIN WITH
INCREASING WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF AND SFC LOW SWEEPING THRU OKLAHOMA. SFC WINDS FOR
THE LOWER VALLEY WILL REACH 20 TO 25MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 DURING
THE LATE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE MAKES AN INCURSION
INTO THE WESTERN VALLEY. THIS WILL RELAX THE GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH...WHILE AREAS NEAR THE COAST WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT 10
TO 15. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP
THE TEMPERATURES SOAR AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
VALLEY WITH THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE DRYLINE. TEMPS WILL REACH THE
90S...WITH AREAS AROUND FALCON LAKE APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS. TONIGHT THE DRYLINE RETREATS TO THE WEST...WITH GULF
MOISTURE RETURNING. INVERSION SETTING UP AT 1500 WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS. FOG FORMATION WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WITH
THE LOW INVERSION AND LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY FOR THE BKS/HBV
CORRIDOR. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...LACK OF SWLY DRYING WINDS AND THE DRYLINE
NOT REACHING THE VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...STRENGTHENING UPPER
TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE ROCKIES
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN TRACK SLOWLY INTO THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DEEP STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM SOUTH TEXAS KEEPING THE FORECAST RATHER
DRY AND HOT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AND STILL DRY HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TRENDING
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD.

AS THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO STRENGTHEN WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY. WINDS PEAK SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS LLJ OF 40+ KNOTS DEVELOPS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS
IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY AND ALLOW FOR MINIMUMS SUNDAY MORNING TO
BE RATHER WARM WITH ALL AREAS REMAINING ABOVE 70. DAYTIME HIGHS BEGIN
TO INCH UPWARD UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S WITH EXCELLENT DEEP MIXING
AND WARMING 850MB TEMPS. MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW AND LIMITED
ACROSS THE RGV. HIGHEST INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SIERRA MADRE TO ALLOW FOR LATE DAY AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ONE OR TWO CELLS WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF
TRACKING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER FRI AND SAT NIGHTS. BETTER
CHANCES FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO SEE SOME RAIN WILL BE
SATURDAY EVENING BUT CHANCES STILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT
OF THE FORECAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS AS DRY AIR WORKS
THROUGH THE WESTERN VALLEY AS A DRY LINE DOES ITS WEST TO EAST
DAYTIME DANCE. DEW POINTS TO PLUMMET EACH AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
SOAR. THE CENTURY MARK LOOKS VALID ALONG AND WEST OF 69C WITH LOW
TO MID 90S EAST AS 850 TEMPS APPROACH 24-26C. CONTINUED TO TREND
ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE BUT OVERALL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE BECOMING SMALLER. INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
HOTTER SOLUTION.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH SPINS OVER THE TENN/OHIO VALLEYS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF CANADA WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTH TEXAS
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY AIR PRODUCING COOL NIGHT AND WARM DAYS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SWEEPING THROUGH OKLAHOMA
WILL TIGHTEN THE LOCAL GRADIENT TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY STAY
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS REINFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES IN THE NW GULF...LOOSENING UP THE GRADIENT. WINDS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS.
SEAS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 4 FEET TODAY WITH THE GUSTIER
WINDS...BUT WILL PROMPTLY RELAX TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...GENERALLY
LESS THAN 3 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ON SHORE FLOW TO STRENGTHEN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LOOKING BETTER
FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE SATURDAY AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO LOWER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
LOWER PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ELEMENTS TO PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE ON THE INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THE SAME TIME. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH HIGHER THEN NORMAL
HUMIDITY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE THE DAYTIME HUMIDITY TO
PLUMMET ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BUT WINDS WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE LIMITING ANY HIGH THREAT OF FIRE SPREAD AND GROWTH.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/54









000
FXUS64 KBRO 241145
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
645 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION....SW FLOW ALOFT HAS KEPT DRIER AIR ACROSS INLAND
AREAS...KEEPING CLOUD COVER THINNER. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS SE
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS UP TO 5000 FEET WITH LOW LEVEL JET OVER
THE RGV. BREEZY CONDITIONS INCREASE TODAY...REACHING 18 TO 20KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MIX DRIER AIR ALOFT
DOWN TO THE SFC...HELPING TO MIX OUT CLOUD COVER. WINDS DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR KMFE AS DRYLINE DRIFTS IN FRO THE WEST.
WINDS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST. INVERSION WILL
TRAP MOISTURE AT THE SFC...BRINGING LOW CLOUD DECK MORE WIDESPREAD.
SOME FOG FORMATION MAY BE AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT FOR KMFE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS
MORNING IS THE VARIABLE WINDS AREAWIDE. THE DAY WILL BEGIN WITH
INCREASING WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF AND SFC LOW SWEEPING THRU OKLAHOMA. SFC WINDS FOR
THE LOWER VALLEY WILL REACH 20 TO 25MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 DURING
THE LATE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE MAKES AN INCURSION
INTO THE WESTERN VALLEY. THIS WILL RELAX THE GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH...WHILE AREAS NEAR THE COAST WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT 10
TO 15. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP
THE TEMPERATURES SOAR AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
VALLEY WITH THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE DRYLINE. TEMPS WILL REACH THE
90S...WITH AREAS AROUND FALCON LAKE APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS. TONIGHT THE DRYLINE RETREATS TO THE WEST...WITH GULF
MOISTURE RETURNING. INVERSION SETTING UP AT 1500 WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS. FOG FORMATION WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WITH
THE LOW INVERSION AND LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY FOR THE BKS/HBV
CORRIDOR. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...LACK OF SWLY DRYING WINDS AND THE DRYLINE
NOT REACHING THE VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...STRENGTHENING UPPER
TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE ROCKIES
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN TRACK SLOWLY INTO THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DEEP STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM SOUTH TEXAS KEEPING THE FORECAST RATHER
DRY AND HOT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AND STILL DRY HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TRENDING
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD.

AS THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO STRENGTHEN WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY. WINDS PEAK SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS LLJ OF 40+ KNOTS DEVELOPS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS
IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY AND ALLOW FOR MINIMUMS SUNDAY MORNING TO
BE RATHER WARM WITH ALL AREAS REMAINING ABOVE 70. DAYTIME HIGHS BEGIN
TO INCH UPWARD UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S WITH EXCELLENT DEEP MIXING
AND WARMING 850MB TEMPS. MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW AND LIMITED
ACROSS THE RGV. HIGHEST INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SIERRA MADRE TO ALLOW FOR LATE DAY AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ONE OR TWO CELLS WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF
TRACKING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER FRI AND SAT NIGHTS. BETTER
CHANCES FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO SEE SOME RAIN WILL BE
SATURDAY EVENING BUT CHANCES STILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT
OF THE FORECAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS AS DRY AIR WORKS
THROUGH THE WESTERN VALLEY AS A DRY LINE DOES ITS WEST TO EAST
DAYTIME DANCE. DEW POINTS TO PLUMMET EACH AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
SOAR. THE CENTURY MARK LOOKS VALID ALONG AND WEST OF 69C WITH LOW
TO MID 90S EAST AS 850 TEMPS APPROACH 24-26C. CONTINUED TO TREND
ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE BUT OVERALL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE BECOMING SMALLER. INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
HOTTER SOLUTION.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH SPINS OVER THE TENN/OHIO VALLEYS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF CANADA WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTH TEXAS
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY AIR PRODUCING COOL NIGHT AND WARM DAYS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SWEEPING THROUGH OKLAHOMA
WILL TIGHTEN THE LOCAL GRADIENT TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY STAY
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS REINFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES IN THE NW GULF...LOOSENING UP THE GRADIENT. WINDS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS.
SEAS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 4 FEET TODAY WITH THE GUSTIER
WINDS...BUT WILL PROMPTLY RELAX TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...GENERALLY
LESS THAN 3 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ON SHORE FLOW TO STRENGTHEN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LOOKING BETTER
FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE SATURDAY AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO LOWER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
LOWER PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ELEMENTS TO PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE ON THE INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THE SAME TIME. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH HIGHER THEN NORMAL
HUMIDITY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE THE DAYTIME HUMIDITY TO
PLUMMET ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BUT WINDS WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE LIMITING ANY HIGH THREAT OF FIRE SPREAD AND GROWTH.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/54








000
FXUS64 KBRO 240913
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
413 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS
MORNING IS THE VARIABLE WINDS AREAWIDE. THE DAY WILL BEGIN WITH
INCREASING WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF AND SFC LOW SWEEPING THRU OKLAHOMA. SFC WINDS FOR
THE LOWER VALLEY WILL REACH 20 TO 25MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 DURING
THE LATE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE MAKES AN INCURSION
INTO THE WESTERN VALLEY. THIS WILL RELAX THE GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH...WHILE AREAS NEAR THE COAST WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT 10
TO 15. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP
THE TEMPERATURES SOAR AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
VALLEY WITH THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE DRYLINE. TEMPS WILL REACH THE
90S...WITH AREAS AROUND FALCON LAKE APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS. TONIGHT THE DRYLINE RETREATS TO THE WEST...WITH GULF
MOISTURE RETURNING. INVERSION SETTING UP AT 1500 WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS. FOG FORMATION WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WITH
THE LOW INVERSION AND LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY FOR THE BKS/HBV
CORRIDOR. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...LACK OF SWLY DRYING WINDS AND THE DRYLINE
NOT REACHING THE VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...STRENGTHENING UPPER
TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE ROCKIES
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN TRACK SLOWLY INTO THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DEEP STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM SOUTH TEXAS KEEPING THE FORECAST RATHER
DRY AND HOT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AND STILL DRY HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TRENDING
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD.

AS THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO STRENGTHEN WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY. WINDS PEAK SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS LLJ OF 40+ KNOTS DEVELOPS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS
IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY AND ALLOW FOR MINIMUMS SUNDAY MORNING TO
BE RATHER WARM WITH ALL AREAS REMAINING ABOVE 70. DAYTIME HIGHS BEGIN
TO INCH UPWARD UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S WITH EXCELLENT DEEP MIXING
AND WARMING 850MB TEMPS. MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW AND LIMITED
ACROSS THE RGV. HIGHEST INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SIERRA MADRE TO ALLOW FOR LATE DAY AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ONE OR TWO CELLS WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF
TRACKING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER FRI AND SAT NIGHTS. BETTER
CHANCES FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO SEE SOME RAIN WILL BE
SATURDAY EVENING BUT CHANCES STILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT
OF THE FORECAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS AS DRY AIR WORKS
THROUGH THE WESTERN VALLEY AS A DRY LINE DOES ITS WEST TO EAST
DAYTIME DANCE. DEW POINTS TO PLUMMET EACH AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
SOAR. THE CENTURY MARK LOOKS VALID ALONG AND WEST OF 69C WITH LOW
TO MID 90S EAST AS 850 TEMPS APPROACH 24-26C. CONTINUED TO TREND
ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE BUT OVERALL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE BECOMING SMALLER. INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
HOTTER SOLUTION.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH SPINS OVER THE TENN/OHIO VALLEYS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF CANADA WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTH TEXAS
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY AIR PRODUCING COOL NIGHT AND WARM DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SWEEPING THROUGH OKLAHOMA
WILL TIGHTEN THE LOCAL GRADIENT TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY STAY
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS REINFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES IN THE NW GULF...LOOSENING UP THE GRADIENT. WINDS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS.
SEAS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 4 FEET TODAY WITH THE GUSTIER
WINDS...BUT WILL PROMPTLY RELAX TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...GENERALLY
LESS THAN 3 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ON SHORE FLOW TO STRENGTHEN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LOOKING BETTER
FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE SATURDAY AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO LOWER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
LOWER PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ELEMENTS TO PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE ON THE INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THE SAME TIME. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH HIGHER THEN NORMAL
HUMIDITY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE THE DAYTIME HUMIDITY TO
PLUMMET ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BUT WINDS WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE LIMITING ANY HIGH THREAT OF FIRE SPREAD AND GROWTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  85  71  84  73 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          89  70  86  72 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            90  69  89  72 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              93  72  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      97  72  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  71  80  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
CAMPBELL...GRAPHICS/PSU







000
FXUS64 KBRO 240000 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
700 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DROP TO MVFR LEVELS LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS CEILINGS DROP TO AROUND 1500 FEET. CEILINGS AT
MFE COULD DROP TO AROUND 1000 FEET BETWEEN 09-13Z. PERSIST
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING MOISTURE IN UNDER THE STABLE
LAYER LATER TONIGHT BUT WINDS SHOULD BE TO STRONG FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG TO DEVELOP AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE MAIN FIRST
PERIOD ISSUE WILL BE INCREASED SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS DUE TO A
DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS TIGHTENING UP THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH RESIDENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF. THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAVE MORE IMPACT FOR THE
MARINE AREAS...SEE BELOW DISCUSSION...BUT MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW WILL REPRESENT A RETURN TO A MORE
TYPICAL WIND REGIME FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV. MOISTURE
WILL KEEP PILING UP ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS TONIGHT...WITH
COPIOUS LOW CLOUDINESS SETTING UP UNDER A STABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE THAT WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOK FOR 10
TO 20 MPH WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 70 DEGREES.

MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF U.S. 281
THURSDAY...BUT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST...WITH A DRY LINE MOVING INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FROM
THE WEST...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FROM THE NORTH. CLOUD COVER MAY BE A CATEGORY LESS OUT WEST TOMORROW
AS A RESULT...OR PARTLY CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES
OF ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND STARR...POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST.
COULD SEE SOME POP UP SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE FRONT/DRY
LINE BOUNDARY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH LOCALLY IN THE DRIER REGIME
OUT WEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FAR WEST.

THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR 70...WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
NEAR THE COAST BUT CLEARER INLAND. LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY
TO AREAS OF LIGHT TO MDT FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AND HIGH DEW
POINTS BUMP UP AGAINST EACH OTHER.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

MAINLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CYCLOGENSIS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGH
PLAINS AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE GULF WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A 80 KNOT UPPER
LEVEL JET AND WEAK VORTICITY MAX COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OUT WEST BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW DONT THINK ITS WORTH
MENTIONING IN THE PUBLIC ZONES.

FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY...GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE MOVEMENT OF A DRYLINE/TROUGH WITH VERY DRY
AIR BEHIND IT. FAIRLY LOW HUMIDITY /9-20% WEST OF HWY 281/ IS
EXPECTED WHICH WILL ALSO CAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS TO SOAR
INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S. USED A LITTLE MORE ECX DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD /ECX WARMER THAN MEX/ TO BRING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
100S ACROSS MORE AREAS WEST OF HWY 281 AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
BETWEEN HWY 281 AND HWY 77.

THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING. LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT AS WELL SO NO
PRECIPITATION. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S TUESDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A STORM SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER AND
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS IS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND BOOSTING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
APPROACH 20 KTS OVER THE GULF TONIGHT...AND LOW SEAS WILL BUILD TO
MODERATE...WITH LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE FILLS INTO WEST TEXAS FROM FARTHER WEST. LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 5-7 FEET
BY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXERCISE CAUTION WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS SEAS ARE SLOW TO FALL DESPITE SURFACE WINDS
DECREASING.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63







000
FXUS64 KBRO 231845
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
145 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE MAIN FIRST
PERIOD ISSUE WILL BE INCREASED SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS DUE TO A
DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS TIGHTENING UP THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH RESIDENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF. THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAVE MORE IMPACT FOR THE
MARINE AREAS...SEE BELOW DISCUSSION...BUT MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW WILL REPRESENT A RETURN TO A MORE
TYPICAL WIND REGIME FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV. MOISTURE
WILL KEEP PILING UP ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS TONIGHT...WITH
COPIOUS LOW CLOUDINESS SETTING UP UNDER A STABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE THAT WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOK FOR 10
TO 20 MPH WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 70 DEGREES.

MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF U.S. 281
THURSDAY...BUT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST...WITH A DRY LINE MOVING INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FROM
THE WEST...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FROM THE NORTH. CLOUD COVER MAY BE A CATEGORY LESS OUT WEST TOMORROW
AS A RESULT...OR PARTLY CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES
OF ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND STARR...POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST.
COULD SEE SOME POP UP SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE FRONT/DRY
LINE BOUNDARY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH LOCALLY IN THE DRIER REGIME
OUT WEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FAR WEST.

THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR 70...WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
NEAR THE COAST BUT CLEARER INLAND. LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY
TO AREAS OF LIGHT TO MDT FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AND HIGH DEW
POINTS BUMP UP AGAINST EACH OTHER.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

MAINLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CYCLOGENSIS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGH
PLAINS AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE GULF WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A 80 KNOT UPPER
LEVEL JET AND WEAK VORTICITY MAX COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OUT WEST BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW DONT THINK ITS WORTH
MENTIONING IN THE PUBLIC ZONES.

FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY...GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE MOVEMENT OF A DRYLINE/TROUGH WITH VERY DRY
AIR BEHIND IT. FAIRLY LOW HUMIDITY /9-20% WEST OF HWY 281/ IS
EXPECTED WHICH WILL ALSO CAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS TO SOAR
INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S. USED A LITTLE MORE ECX DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD /ECX WARMER THAN MEX/ TO BRING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
100S ACROSS MORE AREAS WEST OF HWY 281 AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
BETWEEN HWY 281 AND HWY 77.

THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING. LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT AS WELL SO NO
PRECIPITATION. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A STORM SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER AND
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS IS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND BOOSTING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
APPROACH 20 KTS OVER THE GULF TONIGHT...AND LOW SEAS WILL BUILD TO
MODERATE...WITH LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE FILLS INTO WEST TEXAS FROM FARTHER WEST. LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 5-7 FEET
BY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXERCISE CAUTION WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS SEAS ARE SLOW TO FALL DESPITE SURFACE WINDS
DECREASING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  71  84  71  84 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          71  85  71  86 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            70  89  69  89 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              71  92  71  93 /   0  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      70  97  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  79  69  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58







000
FXUS64 KBRO 231711
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1211 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF IS INTERACTING
WITH DEEPENING LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FOR MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MVFR TO VFR SKIES
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THICKER CLOUDS ARE CONCENTRATED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT
MFE. CIGS WILL DROP TO AROUND 2 KFT FOR ALL STATIONS TONIGHT...
MAYBE A FEW HUNDRED FEET LOWER AT MFE...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND MDT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS. AS MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT...A DEEP STABLE LAYER WILL DEVELOP UNDERNEATH...
KEEPING CEILINGS LOWER...IN MVFR TERRITORY...FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MDT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST...
BRINGING MOISTURE IN UNDER THE STABLE LAYER...BUT SCATTERED SKIES
MAY OPEN UP BRIEFLY THURSDAY AFTER DAWN BEFORE A THICKER CLOUD
DECK FORMS. BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE TOO GREAT FOR ANY OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT FOG TO FORM NEAR THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...1500 FT DECK HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEY THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH HAVE RECENTLY
BEGUN TO SPREAD SOUTH AND MAY REACH KMFE BEFORE MID MORNING.
LOWEST CLOUD DECKS WILL BREAK AFTER SUNRISE AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
QUICKLY MIXES TO THE SFC. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY DUE TO THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF
AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL REACH AROUND
15KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH A LOWER INVERSION BOTTLING UP THE SFC
MOISTURE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM....SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...GENERALLY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS DRY AIR ALOFT
KEEPS THINGS STABLE. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DECREASE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AS A LARGE TROUGH SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT TO THE REGION...AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE...MID LEVEL CAPPING INCREASES...AND SFC FOCUSING MECHANISMS
ARE ABSENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...REACHING
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM... /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/ THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA LOOKS TO TRANSITION FROM A PROGRESSIVE WEST
TO EAST TRACK TO A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP
SHOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. BY EARLY TO THE MID WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE
PATTERN CHANGE...BUT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE SMALLER SCALE
DETAILS. A GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINS WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TRANSITIONING INTO BREEZY AND HOT WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND. WINDS TO TAPPER OFF MONDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AS A DRY LINE SETS UP TO THE WEST. THEN A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG TROUGH LOWERING
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR A DAY OR TWO. NO RAIN IS SEEN AT
THIS TIME AS MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS WELL NORTH OF TEXAS. DISSIPATING
FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL HAVE NO AFFECT ON AREA WEATHER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY UPPER TROUGH DIVES SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND TRACKS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. EXPECTING S-SW FLOW TO STRENGTHEN WHICH
IN TURN PUSHES TEMPERATURES UPWARD. BREEZY AFTERNOONS WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE PUSHING MAXIMUMS INTO THE UPPER 90S TO THE LOWER 100S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND UPPER 80S TO MID 90S MID AND
LOWER VALLEY.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BROAD UPPER TROUGH/LOW BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER
MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF
BUT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF 70-80 DECAMETERS DEEPER...HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CWA ARE VIRTUALLY THE SAME. GENERAL TRENDS
IS FOR 850-700MB SW-W FLOW TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY. A SURFACE DRY
LINE TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN AND MIDDLE COUNTIES WITH TEMPERATURES
TO INCREASE POSSIBLY TO THE HIGHEST READINGS OF THE SPRING. DEW
POINTS LOWER CONSIDERABLY WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
SURFACE WINDS HOWEVER LOOK LIGHT REDUCING ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
AS WILL HEAD INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESS LOWER ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS NORMAL
TUESDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN NEARLY FLAT THIS
MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAVE KEPT INFLUENTIAL SFC WINDS
NEARLY CALM. SFC LOW PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS...APPROACHING 15 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY AFFECT SEAS...BUT
SHOULD STAY BELOW 4 FEET TOMORROW.

THURSDAY NIGHT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. STRONG UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SUNDAY WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASING NEXT WEEKEND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY AS MODELS INDICATE WINDS
STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILDING WITH THE TIGHTER GRADIENT. SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND NO FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55/58







000
FXUS64 KBRO 231129 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
629 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...1500 FT DECK HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEY THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH HAVE RECENTLY
BEGUN TO SPREAD SOUTH AND MAY REACH KMFE BEFORE MID MORNING. LOWEST
CLOUD DECKS WILL BREAK AFTER SUNRISE AS DRIER AIR ALOFT QUICKLY
MIXES TO THE SFC. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY DUE
TO THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL REACH AROUND 15KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT WITH A LOWER INVERSION BOTTLING UP THE SFC MOISTURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM....SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...GENERALLY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS DRY AIR ALOFT
KEEPS THINGS STABLE. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DECREASE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AS A LARGE TROUGH SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT TO THE REGION...AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE...MID LEVEL CAPPING INCREASES...AND SFC FOCUSING MECHANISMS
ARE ABSENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...REACHING
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM... /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/ THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA LOOKS TO TRANSITION FROM A PROGRESSIVE WEST
TO EAST TRACK TO A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP
SHOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. BY EARLY TO THE MID WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE
PATTERN CHANGE BUT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE SMALLER SCALE
DETAILS. A GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINS WITH A WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TRANSITIONING INTO BREEZY AND HOT WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND. WINDS TO TAPPER OFF MONDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AS A DRY LINE SETS UP TO THE WEST. THEN A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG TROUGH LOWERING
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR A DAY OR TWO. NO RAIN IS SEEN AT
THIS TIME AS MOISTURE VALUES DO NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS WELL NORTH OF TEXAS. DISSIPATING
FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL HAVE NO AFFECT ON AREA WEATHER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY UPPER TROUGH DIVES SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND TRACKS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. EXPECTING S-SW FLOW TO STRENGTHEN WHICH
IN TURN PUSHES TEMPERATURES UPWARD. BREEZY AFTERNOONS WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE PUSHING MAXIMUMS INTO THE UPPER 90S TO THE LOWER 100S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND UPPER 80S TO MID 90S MID AND
LOWER VALLEY.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BROAD UPPER TROUGH/LOW BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER
MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF
BUT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF 70-80 DECAMETERS DEEPER...HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CWA ARE VIRTUALLY THE SAME. GENERAL TRENDS
IS FOR 850-700MB SW-W FLOW TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY. A SURFACE DRY LINE
TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN AND MIDDLE COUNTIES WITH TEMPERATURES TO
INCREASE POSSIBLY TO THE HIGHEST READINGS OF THE SPRING. DEW
POINTS LOWER CONSIDERABLY WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
SURFACE WINDS HOWEVER LOOK LIGHT REDUCING ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
AS WILL HEAD INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESS LOWER ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS NORMAL
TUESDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN NEARLY FLAT THIS MORNING
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAVE KEPT INFLUENTIAL SFC WINDS NEARLY CALM.
SFC LOW PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS...APPROACHING 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY AFFECT SEAS...BUT SHOULD STAY
BELOW 4 FEET TOMORROW.

THURSDAY NIGHT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
STRONG UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY
WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASING NEXT WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY AS MODELS INDICATE WINDS STRENGTHEN
AND SEAS BUILDING WITH THE TIGHTER GRADIENT. SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND NO FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55/CAMPBELL







000
FXUS64 KBRO 230906
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
406 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM....SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...GENERALLY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPS THINGS
STABLE. MIDLEVEL RIDGE WILL DECREASE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS A
LARGE TROUGH SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE MINIMAL
EFFECT TO THE REGION...AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...MIDLEVEL
CAPPING INCREASES...AND SFC FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE ABSENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM... /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/ THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA LOOKS TO TRANSITION FROM A PROGRESSIVE WEST
TO EAST TRACK TO A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP
SHOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. BY EARLY TO THE MID WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE
PATTERN CHANGE BUT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE SMALLER SCALE
DETAILS. A GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINS WITH A WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TRANSITIONING INTO BREEZY AND HOT WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND. WINDS TO TAPPER OFF MONDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AS A DRY LINE SETS UP TO THE WEST. THEN A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG TROUGH LOWERING
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR A DAY OR TWO. NO RAIN IS SEEN AT
THIS TIME AS MOISTURE VALUES DO NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS WELL NORTH OF TEXAS. DISSIPATING
FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL HAVE NO AFFECT ON AREA WEATHER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY UPPER TROUGH DIVES SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND TRACKS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. EXPECTING S-SW FLOW TO STRENGTHEN WHICH
IN TURN PUSHES TEMPERATURES UPWARD. BREEZY AFTERNOONS WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE PUSHING MAXIMUMS INTO THE UPPER 90S TO THE LOWER 100S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND UPPER 80S TO MID 90S MID AND
LOWER VALLEY.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BROAD UPPER TROUGH/LOW BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER
MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF
BUT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF 70-80 DECAMETERS DEEPER...HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CWA ARE VIRTUALLY THE SAME. GENERAL TRENDS
IS FOR 850-700MB SW-W FLOW TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY. A SURFACE DRY LINE
TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN AND MIDDLE COUNTIES WITH TEMPERATURES TO
INCREASE POSSIBLY TO THE HIGHEST READINGS OF THE SPRING. DEW
POINTS LOWER CONSIDERABLY WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
SURFACE WINDS HOWEVER LOOK LIGHT REDUCING ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
AS WILL HEAD INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESS LOWER ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS NORMAL
TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN NEARLY FLAT THIS MORNING
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAVE KEPT INFLUENTIAL SFC WINDS NEARLY CALM.
SFC LOW PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS...APPROACHING 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY AFFECT SEAS...BUT SHOULD STAY
BELOW 4 FEET TOMORROW.

THURSDAY NIGHT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
STRONG UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY
WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASING NEXT WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY AS MODELS INDICATE WINDS STRENGTHEN
AND SEAS BUILDING WITH THE TIGHTER GRADIENT. SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND NO FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
CAMPBELL...PSU/GRAPHICS.







000
FXUS64 KBRO 230530 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1230 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH AN INVERSION AT 5000 FEET...LLVL MOISTURE HAS NOT
BEEN ABLE TO FOCUS NEARER TO THE SFC. THUS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AREAWIDE. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN MINIMIZED THROUGH
MIDMORNING WHEN DAYTIME HEATING LEADS TO CU FIELD DEVELOPMENT.
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MINIMIZE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.
LIGHT SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS RETURN AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...VERY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED OVER ZAPATA COUNTY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG
THE LAND BREEZE PRODUCED BY FALCON LAKE. HOWEVER... THIS ACTIVITY
HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN JIM HOGG COUNTY
AS THE LAND BREEZE COLLIDED WITH THE SEABREEZE FRONT PUSHING WEST.
WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY NOW DEVELOPING OVER WEBB COUNTY...HAVE
OPTED TO INDICATE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION OVER BOTH THESE COUNTIES
OF THE BRO CWFA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST ALREADY
ISSUED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS WERE
MADE TO INITIAL CONDITIONS AND THE FM230100 PERIOD BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO...THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING MFE...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE EAST AND
INCREASE MOMENTARILY. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL DEGRADE INTO MVFR TERRITORY AS CEILINGS LOWER SLIGHTLY
WHILE SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RESUME AFTER
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 144 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH H5 RIDGING ALOFT AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDING AND TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LESSER MOISTURE AMOUNTS CONCENTRATED
BELOW 5KFT. ELEVATED DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST LOCALES. RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY
HELP TRIGGER MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA MADRES TO THE
WEST...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THAT POTENTIAL CONVECTION TO MAKE
IT INTO THE RGV. MOSTLY CLOUDY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
PLAINS TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO
MODERATE AND EVEN BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE H5 RIDGE WILL
COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...WITH WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST... FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE U.S. 77 CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER 90S
FAR WEST...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DEW POINTS AND LOW TEMPS UP
A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BELOW THE CAP OR STABLE LAYER FOR THE
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. THE NEXT TROUGH ENTERS THE WESTERN COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND WELL TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DIFFLUENCE SPREADS ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY FOR US...THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH NO MENTION OF POPS. CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN SEEING ANY OF THAT PRECIPITATION PENETRATING OUR CWA. THE
BOUNDARY MAY SINK DOWN INTO OUR AREA AT THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY HWY 281 AND EAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS DAYS 6-7 SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS LOW ATTM.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS... WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PRESSURE FALLS WILL OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS THERE AND MOVES EAST...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
RESPONDING TO THE TIGHTER GRADIENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...AND BRIEF EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW
END ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST
INTO LATE WEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS RISE TO
AROUND 6 FEET BY SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64/51







000
FXUS64 KBRO 230216 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
916 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...VERY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED OVER ZAPATA COUNTY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG
THE LAND BREEZE PRODUCED BY FALCON LAKE. HOWEVER... THIS ACTIVITY
HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN JIM HOGG COUNTY
AS THE LAND BREEZE COLLIDED WITH THE SEABREEZE FRONT PUSHING WEST.
WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY NOW DEVELOPING OVER WEBB COUNTY...HAVE
OPTED TO INDICATE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION OVER BOTH THESE COUNTIES
OF THE BRO CWFA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST ALREADY
ISSUED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS WERE
MADE TO INITIAL CONDITIONS AND THE FM230100 PERIOD BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO...THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING MFE...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE EAST AND
INCREASE MOMENTARILY. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL DEGRADE INTO MVFR TERRITORY AS CEILINGS LOWER SLIGHTLY
WHILE SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RESUME AFTER
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 144 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH H5 RIDGING ALOFT AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDING AND TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LESSER MOISTURE AMOUNTS CONCENTRATED
BELOW 5KFT. ELEVATED DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST LOCALES. RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY
HELP TRIGGER MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA MADRES TO THE
WEST...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THAT POTENTIAL CONVECTION TO MAKE
IT INTO THE RGV. MOSTLY CLOUDY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
PLAINS TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO
MODERATE AND EVEN BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE H5 RIDGE WILL
COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...WITH WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST... FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE U.S. 77 CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER 90S
FAR WEST...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DEW POINTS AND LOW TEMPS UP
A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BELOW THE CAP OR STABLE LAYER FOR THE
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. THE NEXT TROUGH ENTERS THE WESTERN COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND WELL TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DIFFLUENCE SPREADS ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY FOR US...THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH NO MENTION OF POPS. CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN SEEING ANY OF THAT PRECIPITATION PENETRATING OUR CWA. THE
BOUNDARY MAY SINK DOWN INTO OUR AREA AT THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY HWY 281 AND EAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS DAYS 6-7 SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS LOW ATTM.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS... WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PRESSURE FALLS WILL OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS THERE AND MOVES EAST...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
RESPONDING TO THE TIGHTER GRADIENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...AND BRIEF EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW
END ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST
INTO LATE WEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS RISE TO
AROUND 6 FEET BY SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV






000
FXUS64 KBRO 222338 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
638 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS WERE
MADE TO INITIAL CONDITIONS AND THE FM230100 PERIOD BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO...THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING MFE...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE EAST AND
INCREASE MOMENTARILY. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL DEGRADE INTO MVFR TERRITORY AS CEILINGS LOWER SLIGHTLY
WHILE SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RESUME AFTER
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 144 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH H5 RIDGING ALOFT AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDING AND TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LESSER MOISTURE AMOUNTS CONCENTRATED
BELOW 5KFT. ELEVATED DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST LOCALES. RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY
HELP TRIGGER MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA MADRES TO THE
WEST...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THAT POTENTIAL CONVECTION TO MAKE
IT INTO THE RGV. MOSTLY CLOUDY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
PLAINS TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO
MODERATE AND EVEN BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE H5 RIDGE WILL
COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...WITH WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST... FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE U.S. 77 CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER 90S
FAR WEST...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DEW POINTS AND LOW TEMPS UP
A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BELOW THE CAP OR STABLE LAYER FOR THE
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. THE NEXT TROUGH ENTERS THE WESTERN COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND WELL TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DIFFLUENCE SPREADS ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY FOR US...THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH NO MENTION OF POPS. CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN SEEING ANY OF THAT PRECIPITATION PENETRATING OUR CWA. THE
BOUNDARY MAY SINK DOWN INTO OUR AREA AT THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY HWY 281 AND EAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS DAYS 6-7 SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS LOW ATTM.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS... WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PRESSURE FALLS WILL OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS THERE AND MOVES EAST...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
RESPONDING TO THE TIGHTER GRADIENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...AND BRIEF EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW
END ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST
INTO LATE WEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS RISE TO
AROUND 6 FEET BY SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV






000
FXUS64 KBRO 221844
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
144 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH H5 RIDGING ALOFT AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDING AND TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LESSER MOISTURE AMOUNTS CONCENTRATED
BELOW 5KFT. ELEVATED DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST LOCALES. RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY
HELP TRIGGER MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA MADRES TO THE
WEST...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THAT POTENTIAL CONVECTION TO MAKE
IT INTO THE RGV. MOSTLY CLOUDY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
PLAINS TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO
MODERATE AND EVEN BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE H5 RIDGE WILL
COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...WITH WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST... FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE U.S. 77 CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER 90S
FAR WEST...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DEW POINTS AND LOW TEMPS UP
A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BELOW THE CAP OR STABLE LAYER FOR THE
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. THE NEXT TROUGH ENTERS THE WESTERN COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND WELL TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DIFFLUENCE SPREADS ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY FOR US...THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH NO MENTION OF POPS. CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN SEEING ANY OF THAT PRECIPITATION PENETRATING OUR CWA. THE
BOUNDARY MAY SINK DOWN INTO OUR AREA AT THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY HWY 281 AND EAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS DAYS 6-7 SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS LOW ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS... WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PRESSURE FALLS WILL OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS THERE AND MOVES EAST...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
RESPONDING TO THE TIGHTER GRADIENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...AND BRIEF EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW
END ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST
INTO LATE WEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS RISE TO
AROUND 6 FEET BY SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  69  81  71  83 /  10  10   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          68  83  70  85 /  10  10   0  10
HARLINGEN            67  86  70  88 /  10  10   0  10
MCALLEN              69  89  70  92 /  10  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  91  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   69  77  71  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58







000
FXUS64 KBRO 221726 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1226 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS RESULTING IN A WEAK GRADIENT
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WHICH ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UNRESTRICTED VSBY AND FEW TO SCT DECKS ABOVE 3 KFT TONIGHT...BUT
WITH BKN EXCURSIONS INTO TEMPO MVFR TERRITORY FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE DAWN. FOG APPEARS TO BE DOWNPLAYED WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT PATCHES OF SHALLOW LIGHT GROUND
FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT BE
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO
BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT...WITH SCT
TO BKN CU AND VFR CEILINGS LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...1500 FT DECK SPREADING NORTH THRU KHRL AND KMFE...OR
THE MID VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND MAY ARRIVE AT KBRO LATER THIS
MORNING. CIGS WILL RISE DURING THE MORNING AND LIFT ABOVE 3000
AFTER NOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY.
DEEPER SFC MOISTURE WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL HELP LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE EVENING...LOWERING TO 1000 TO 1500 FT FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL DECREASE TO NEAR CALM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LARGE SWATH OF DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE WESTERN VALLEY THIS MORNING AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE SFC...TEMPS WILL AGAIN JUMP HIGHER
INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESSER TODAY
DUE TO THE ABUNDANT DRIER AIR ALOFT.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS
AND BOTTLES UP LLVL MOISTURE. INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
THAT CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SFC...LIMITING FOG FORMATION.
LOWS WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE 60S AGAIN DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNING GULF MOISTURE.

MINIMAL DIFFERENCES NOTED FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO BE UNDERCUT BY SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE LAYER AT THE SFC.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S. NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED DUE TO RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCH LANDS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID
90S ACROSS THE WEST. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY COURTESY OF LEE
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SUNDAY DUE TO A DRY LINE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ON MONDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HEAT SPIKE. THE ECMWF
MOS IS A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MEX MOS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...BOTH DAYS. WILL BUMP UP THE INHERITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT BELOW
ECMWF MOS NUMBERS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND POSSIBLY MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG CAPPING AND
LIMITED LIFT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM MOVING INTO THE AREA. BUT
WILL MAINTAIN SILENT 10 POPS THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

MARINE...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...L/V WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING AROUND THE NW GULF.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KNOTS WHICH IS ALLOWING SEAS TO
CONTINUE RELAXING RIGHT AT 2 FEET. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
KANSAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...INCREASING WINDS TO AROUND 15
KNOTS. SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESPOND UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ONGOING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS BRIEFLY DECREASE FOR FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55/58







000
FXUS64 KBRO 221122 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
622 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...1500 FT DECK SPREADING NORTH THRU KHRL AND KMFE...OR
THE MID VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND MAY ARRIVE AT KBRO LATER THIS
MORNING. CIGS WILL RISE DURING THE MORNING AND LIFT ABOVE 3000
AFTER NOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY.
DEEPER SFC MOISTURE WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL HELP LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE EVENING...LOWERING TO 1000 TO 1500 FT FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL DECREASE TO NEAR CALM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LARGE SWATH OF DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE WESTERN VALLEY THIS MORNING AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE SFC...TEMPS WILL AGAIN JUMP HIGHER
INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESSER TODAY
DUE TO THE ABUNDANT DRIER AIR ALOFT.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS
AND BOTTLES UP LLVL MOISTURE. INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
THAT CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SFC...LIMITING FOG FORMATION.
LOWS WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE 60S AGAIN DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNING GULF MOISTURE.

MINIMAL DIFFERENCES NOTED FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO BE UNDERCUT BY SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE LAYER AT THE SFC.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S. NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED DUE TO RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCH LANDS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID
90S ACROSS THE WEST. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY COURTESY OF LEE
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SUNDAY DUE TO A DRY LINE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ON MONDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HEAT SPIKE. THE ECMWF
MOS IS A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MEX MOS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...BOTH DAYS. WILL BUMP UP THE INHERITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT BELOW
ECMWF MOS NUMBERS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND POSSIBLY MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG CAPPING AND
LIMITED LIFT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM MOVING INTO THE AREA. BUT
WILL MAINTAIN SILENT 10 POPS THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

MARINE...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...L/V WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING AROUND THE NW GULF.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KNOTS WHICH IS ALLOWING SEAS TO
CONTINUE RELAXING RIGHT AT 2 FEET. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
KANSAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...INCREASING WINDS TO AROUND 15
KNOTS. SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESPOND UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ONGOING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS BRIEFLY DECREASE FOR FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55/CAMPBELL







000
FXUS64 KBRO 220921 CCA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
418 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LARGE SWATH OF DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE WESTERN VALLEY THIS MORNING AS
MIDLEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE SFC...TEMPS WILL AGAIN JUMP HIGHER
INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESSER TODAY
DUE TO THE ABUNDANT DRIER AIR ALOFT.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS
AND BOTTLES UP LLVL MOISTURE. INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
THAT CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SFC...LIMITING FOG FORMATION.
LOWS WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE 60S AGAIN DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNING GULF MOISTURE.

MINIMAL DIFFERENCES NOTED FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO BE UNDERCUT BY SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE LAYER AT THE SFC.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S. NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED DUE TO RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID
90S ACROSS THE WEST. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY COURTESY OF LEE
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SUNDAY DUE TO A DRYLINE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ON MONDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HEAT SPIKE. THE ECMWF
MOS IS A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MEX MOS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...BOTH DAYS. WILL BUMP UP THE INHERITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT BELOW
ECMWF MOS NUMBERS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND POSSIBLY MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG CAPPING AND
LIMITED LIFT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM MOVING INTO THE AREA. BUT
WILL MAINTAIN SILENT 10 POPS THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...L/V WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING AROUND THE NW GULF.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KNOTS WHICH IS ALLOWING SEAS TO
CONTINUE RELAXING RIGHT AT 2 FEET. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
KANSAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...INCREASING WINDS TO AROUND 15
KNOTS. SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESPOND UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ONGOING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS BRIEFLY DECREASE FOR FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  68  80  70 /  10  10   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          85  67  84  69 /  10  10   0  10
HARLINGEN            85  65  84  69 /  10  10   0  10
MCALLEN              88  68  87  69 /  10  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      89  69  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  67  77  69 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/63/CAMPBELL










000
FXUS64 KBRO 220911
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
411 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LARGE SWATH OF DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE WESTERN VALLEY THIS MORNING AS
MIDLEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE SFC...TEMPS WILL AGAIN JUMP HIGHER
INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESSER TODAY
DUE TO THE ABUNDANT DRIER AIR ALOFT.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS
AND BOTTLES UP LLVL MOISTURE. INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
THAT CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SFC...LIMITING FOG FORMATION.
LOWS WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE 60S AGAIN DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNING GULF MOISTURE.

MINIMAL DIFFERENCES NOTED FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO BE UNDERCUT BY SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE LAYER AT THE SFC.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S. NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED DUE TO RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID
90S ACROSS THE WEST. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY COURTESY OF LEE
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SUNDAY DUE TO A DRYLINE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ON MONDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HEAT SPIKE. THE ECMWF
MOS IS A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MEX MOS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST BOTH DAYS. WILL BUMP UP THE INHERITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT BELOW
ECMWF MOS NUMBERS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND POSSIBLY MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG CAPPING AND
LIMITED LIFT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM MOVING INTO THE AREA. BUT
WILL MAINTAIN SILENT 10 POPS THROUGH SUNDAY. A SILENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...L/V WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING AROUND THE NW GULF.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KNOTS WHICH IS ALLOWING SEAS TO
CONTINUE RELAXING RIGHT AT 2 FEET. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
KANSAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...INCREASING WINDS TO AROUND 15
KNOTS. SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESPOND UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ONGOING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS BRIEFLY DECREASE FOR FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  68  80  70 /  10  10   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          85  67  84  69 /  10  10   0  10
HARLINGEN            85  65  84  69 /  10  10   0  10
MCALLEN              88  68  87  69 /  10  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      89  69  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  67  77  69 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/63/CAMPBELL







000
FXUS64 KBRO 220549 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1249 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...INVERSION NOTED ON EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED THAT CLOUD
BASES AT 6000 WILL BE THE DOMINANT LAYER OVERNIGHT. WEAK LIGHT
RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE REMNANTS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
NE MEXICO WILL ARRIVE AT KMFE AROUND 08Z. THE RAINFALL IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER VALLEY AIRPORTS. CIGS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 1500 BRIEFLY RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE...WITH A RETURN
ABOVE 5000 BY NOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO BOTH INITIAL CONDITIONS
AND THE FINAL PERIOD OF THE PREVIOUS TAFS...BUT OVERALL THE CORE
OF THE TAFS WERE LEFT INTACT DUE TO SOUND FORECAST REASONING. VFR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS DIMINISH TO
LIGHTER LEVELS WHILE CLOUD DECKS LOWER. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED CLOSE TO SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. VFR WILL RESUME BY THE
MID-MORNING HOURS WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO MODERATE LEVELS
WHILE CLOUD DECKS RISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS
TO OUR NORTH WILL BE SLIDING EAST TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THIS
MORNINGS BRO SOUNDING WAS A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE VERSUS YESTERDAY
WITH A 12Z CAPE OF 1263 J/KG. HOWEVER WINDS ALOFT IN THE SOUNDING
WERE FROM THE W-SW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DEPTH OF THE ATMS AND
THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE CONV POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS DRY AIR IS ADVECTED IN FROM THE MID LEVELS. HOWEVER
WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF SLGT CHC POPS OUT WEST THIS EVENING AS AN
ISOLD CELL CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS SOME CONV FIRING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO COULD STRAY INTO THE AREA.

WILL TREND DOWN THE POPS FOR TOMORROW AS 500 MB RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. WITH LESS
CLD COVER AND INCREASING 1000-500 MB THICKNESS SEE NO REASON FOR
HIGH TEMPS NOT TO EDGE UP TOMORROW.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE IN PRETTY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER FOR BOTH
TEMPS AND POPS. WILL GO CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

AS THE SURFACE WINDS SLACKEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOUR COUNTIES
AND WILL INCLUDE THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL INDUCE LEE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST AND
RATCHET UP BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH RACES EASTWARD THURSDAY AND HELP DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BEFORE STALLING ON FRIDAY AND LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. A STRONGER TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST COAST
SATURDAY SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND EMERGING INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. FORECAST
KEPT MOSTLY IN TACT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ECMWF BRINGS A
DRYLINE WITH LOW DEPOINTS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE GFS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE. THE ECMWF IS ALSO FORECASTING A HEAT SPIKE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DRY AIR WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 100S ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE CWA. BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE OF ECX MOS AT LONG
RANGE WILL DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION AND KEEP WITH CONSENSUS DAYS 6-7.

FOR POP CHANCES...WILL KEEP SILENT POPS GOING AS LITTLE LIFT AND
STRONG CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AT BAY OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE TSTORMS MONDAY AS THE WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT GET CLOSER.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER
THE GULF OF MEX WILL MAINTAIN A PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN OVER THE
LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE CONDITIONS
WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST.
1-3 FOOT SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY THURSDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
BRIEF REPRIEVE IN STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS
RATCHET UP AGAIN SATURDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT NEEDING TO EXERCISE
CAUTION.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64/51







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