Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KBRO 281730 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1230 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. /53/

&&

.AVIATION...
A RELATIVELY FLAT CU FIELD HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS EAST
OF IH-69C/US-281.  ADDITIONAL CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SEABREEZE MOVES ONSHORE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE
AND WEAK FORCING...ANY -SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND WILL
LIKELY NOT AFFECT THE MAJOR AIRPORTS IN THE VALLEY.  ONLY SCTD CU IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNSET FOR THE KBRO...KHRL...AND KMFE TERMINALS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A LARGELY PERSISTENCE-TYPE FORECAST FOR THE 1800
UTC TAF PACKAGE.  AFTER AFTERNOON CU DIMINISHES AROUND SUNSET...SOME
PATCHY ST MAY BE SEEN TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT BY
29/1500 UTC OR SO.  GUSTY SE-S WINDS AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MID-MORNING
TUESDAY.  /53/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS MORNING...THANKS TO A SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
DRY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THIS MORNING`S KBRO
SOUNDING HOVERING NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (1.67 IN.). WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

WE MIGHT SEE A SEABREEZE DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND VERY WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...VERY LITTLE
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. WITH THAT SAID...WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN HOT AND DRY.

SPEAKING OF HOT AND DRY...SOME ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED AND DIURNAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
ONGOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.  /53/

MARINE...
OBSERVATIONAL PLATFORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SPEEDS ON THE LAGUNA. BASED ON THIS...I HAVE ADJUSTED WIND
SPEEDS A BIT OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. /53/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FEW CLOUDS AT 015 CONTINUE TO SWEEP NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD GO NO MORE THAN SCT THROUGH
MIDMORNING...EXCEPT FOR VERY TEMPO BKN015 AT KMFE. SKIES DECREASE
TO FEW TO CLR FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY ...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OCCURRING ALONG
THE SEABREEZE. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO OPPRESS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP TO 97 TO 104 DEGREES
TODAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING AT 105 TO 108 THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF WEAKENS AND SPREADS INLAND INTO TEXAS...INDUCED BY A
WEAK MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES TO THE
WEST AND THE RIDGE RESUMES DOMINANCE ACROSS TEXAS. PW VALUES
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1.4 INCHES...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
CLOUD FORMATION DURING THE DAY. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE UPPER 90S AND
LOW 100S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH AMERICAN
UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A
DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS TO SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
TEXAS WORKING ITS WAY VERY SLOW INTO OUR CWA NEXT WEEKEND.

THE WORK WEEK REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM LAST
WEEK. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
OFFERING AGAIN. THE HOT UPPER RIDGE KEEPS ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINING NEARLY STEADY STATE WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY VARIATION. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER DRY
WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. HEAT INDICES ALTHOUGH
HOT TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT
MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING KEEPING THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS MANAGEABLE. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES STAYING NEAR ZERO OUR
CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS THE END OF JULY AND EARLY AUGUST IS USUALLY OUR
DRIEST TIME OF THE YEAR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. WINDS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW IN MOVING
SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE FRONT`S MOVEMENT
AND THE DAILY CONVECTION. BROAD BRUSH 20-30 PERCENTS LOOK GOOD AT
THIS TIME WITH A DETAILED FORECAST FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 /SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY/ A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT OF EACH MODEL RUN.
IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE TO DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OR ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SOUTHEAST TO EAST PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION THAT
FIRES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST COULD EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE DOWNWARD AS THE CHANCE
OF RAIN INCREASES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
IMPROVED VS YESTERDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF MOVES
WEST AND RELAXES THE LOCAL GRADIENT. SEAS CURRENTLY 3 TO 4 FEET WILL
GRADUALLY FALL TO AROUND 2 FEET BY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 10 TO 15KTS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FURTHER TOMORROW...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH WINDS AT
 MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW DIMINISHING.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
LONG TERM FORECASTER... GIBBS
PSU/GRAPHICAST... TOMASELLI







000
FXUS64 KBRO 281730 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1230 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. /53/

&&

.AVIATION...
A RELATIVELY FLAT CU FIELD HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS EAST
OF IH-69C/US-281.  ADDITIONAL CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SEABREEZE MOVES ONSHORE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE
AND WEAK FORCING...ANY -SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND WILL
LIKELY NOT AFFECT THE MAJOR AIRPORTS IN THE VALLEY.  ONLY SCTD CU IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNSET FOR THE KBRO...KHRL...AND KMFE TERMINALS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A LARGELY PERSISTENCE-TYPE FORECAST FOR THE 1800
UTC TAF PACKAGE.  AFTER AFTERNOON CU DIMINISHES AROUND SUNSET...SOME
PATCHY ST MAY BE SEEN TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT BY
29/1500 UTC OR SO.  GUSTY SE-S WINDS AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MID-MORNING
TUESDAY.  /53/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS MORNING...THANKS TO A SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
DRY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THIS MORNING`S KBRO
SOUNDING HOVERING NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (1.67 IN.). WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

WE MIGHT SEE A SEABREEZE DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND VERY WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...VERY LITTLE
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. WITH THAT SAID...WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN HOT AND DRY.

SPEAKING OF HOT AND DRY...SOME ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED AND DIURNAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
ONGOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.  /53/

MARINE...
OBSERVATIONAL PLATFORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SPEEDS ON THE LAGUNA. BASED ON THIS...I HAVE ADJUSTED WIND
SPEEDS A BIT OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. /53/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FEW CLOUDS AT 015 CONTINUE TO SWEEP NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD GO NO MORE THAN SCT THROUGH
MIDMORNING...EXCEPT FOR VERY TEMPO BKN015 AT KMFE. SKIES DECREASE
TO FEW TO CLR FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY ...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OCCURRING ALONG
THE SEABREEZE. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO OPPRESS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP TO 97 TO 104 DEGREES
TODAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING AT 105 TO 108 THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF WEAKENS AND SPREADS INLAND INTO TEXAS...INDUCED BY A
WEAK MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES TO THE
WEST AND THE RIDGE RESUMES DOMINANCE ACROSS TEXAS. PW VALUES
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1.4 INCHES...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
CLOUD FORMATION DURING THE DAY. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE UPPER 90S AND
LOW 100S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH AMERICAN
UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A
DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS TO SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
TEXAS WORKING ITS WAY VERY SLOW INTO OUR CWA NEXT WEEKEND.

THE WORK WEEK REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM LAST
WEEK. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
OFFERING AGAIN. THE HOT UPPER RIDGE KEEPS ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINING NEARLY STEADY STATE WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY VARIATION. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER DRY
WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. HEAT INDICES ALTHOUGH
HOT TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT
MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING KEEPING THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS MANAGEABLE. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES STAYING NEAR ZERO OUR
CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS THE END OF JULY AND EARLY AUGUST IS USUALLY OUR
DRIEST TIME OF THE YEAR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. WINDS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW IN MOVING
SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE FRONT`S MOVEMENT
AND THE DAILY CONVECTION. BROAD BRUSH 20-30 PERCENTS LOOK GOOD AT
THIS TIME WITH A DETAILED FORECAST FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 /SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY/ A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT OF EACH MODEL RUN.
IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE TO DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OR ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SOUTHEAST TO EAST PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION THAT
FIRES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST COULD EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE DOWNWARD AS THE CHANCE
OF RAIN INCREASES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
IMPROVED VS YESTERDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF MOVES
WEST AND RELAXES THE LOCAL GRADIENT. SEAS CURRENTLY 3 TO 4 FEET WILL
GRADUALLY FALL TO AROUND 2 FEET BY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 10 TO 15KTS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FURTHER TOMORROW...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH WINDS AT
 MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW DIMINISHING.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
LONG TERM FORECASTER... GIBBS
PSU/GRAPHICAST... TOMASELLI






000
FXUS64 KBRO 281627 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1127 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS MORNING...THANKS TO A SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
DRY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THIS MORNING`S KBRO
SOUNDING HOVERING NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (1.67 IN.). WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

WE MIGHT SEE A SEABREEZE DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND VERY WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...VERY LITTLE
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. WITH THAT SAID...WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN HOT AND DRY.

SPEAKING OF HOT AND DRY...SOME ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED AND DIURNAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
ONGOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.  /53/

&&

.MARINE...
OBSERVATIONAL PLATFORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SPEEDS ON THE LAGUNA. BASED ON THIS...I HAVE ADJUSTED WIND
SPEEDS A BIT OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. /53/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FEW CLOUDS AT 015 CONTINUE TO SWEEP NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD GO NO MORE THAN SCT THROUGH
MIDMORNING...EXCEPT FOR VERY TEMPO BKN015 AT KMFE. SKIES DECREASE
TO FEW TO CLR FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY ...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OCCURRING ALONG
THE SEABREEZE. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO OPPRESS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP TO 97 TO 104 DEGREES
TODAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING AT 105 TO 108 THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF WEAKENS AND SPREADS INLAND INTO TEXAS...INDUCED BY A
WEAK MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES TO THE
WEST AND THE RIDGE RESUMES DOMINANCE ACROSS TEXAS. PW VALUES
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1.4 INCHES...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
CLOUD FORMATION DURING THE DAY. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE UPPER 90S AND
LOW 100S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH AMERICAN
UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A
DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS TO SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
TEXAS WORKING ITS WAY VERY SLOW INTO OUR CWA NEXT WEEKEND.

THE WORK WEEK REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM LAST
WEEK. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
OFFERING AGAIN. THE HOT UPPER RIDGE KEEPS ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINING NEARLY STEADY STATE WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY VARIATION. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER DRY
WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. HEAT INDICES ALTHOUGH
HOT TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT
MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING KEEPING THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS MANAGEABLE. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES STAYING NEAR ZERO OUR
CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS THE END OF JULY AND EARLY AUGUST IS USUALLY OUR
DRIEST TIME OF THE YEAR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. WINDS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW IN MOVING
SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE FRONT`S MOVEMENT
AND THE DAILY CONVECTION. BROAD BRUSH 20-30 PERCENTS LOOK GOOD AT
THIS TIME WITH A DETAILED FORECAST FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 /SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY/ A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT OF EACH MODEL RUN.
IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE TO DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OR ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SOUTHEAST TO EAST PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION THAT
FIRES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST COULD EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE DOWNWARD AS THE CHANCE
OF RAIN INCREASES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
IMPROVED VS YESTERDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF MOVES
WEST AND RELAXES THE LOCAL GRADIENT. SEAS CURRENTLY 3 TO 4 FEET WILL
GRADUALLY FALL TO AROUND 2 FEET BY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 10 TO 15KTS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FURTHER TOMORROW...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH WINDS AT
 MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW DIMINISHING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  95  79  94  79 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          95  78  95  79 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            99  77  97  78 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN             101  77 100  77 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     101  77 103  78 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   90  80  89  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
LONG TERM FORECASTER... GIBBS
PSU/GRAPHICAST...BIRCHFIELD/CAMPBELL







000
FXUS64 KBRO 281627 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1127 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS MORNING...THANKS TO A SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
DRY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THIS MORNING`S KBRO
SOUNDING HOVERING NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (1.67 IN.). WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

WE MIGHT SEE A SEABREEZE DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND VERY WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...VERY LITTLE
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. WITH THAT SAID...WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN HOT AND DRY.

SPEAKING OF HOT AND DRY...SOME ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED AND DIURNAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
ONGOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.  /53/

&&

.MARINE...
OBSERVATIONAL PLATFORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SPEEDS ON THE LAGUNA. BASED ON THIS...I HAVE ADJUSTED WIND
SPEEDS A BIT OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. /53/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FEW CLOUDS AT 015 CONTINUE TO SWEEP NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD GO NO MORE THAN SCT THROUGH
MIDMORNING...EXCEPT FOR VERY TEMPO BKN015 AT KMFE. SKIES DECREASE
TO FEW TO CLR FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY ...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OCCURRING ALONG
THE SEABREEZE. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO OPPRESS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP TO 97 TO 104 DEGREES
TODAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING AT 105 TO 108 THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF WEAKENS AND SPREADS INLAND INTO TEXAS...INDUCED BY A
WEAK MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES TO THE
WEST AND THE RIDGE RESUMES DOMINANCE ACROSS TEXAS. PW VALUES
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1.4 INCHES...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
CLOUD FORMATION DURING THE DAY. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE UPPER 90S AND
LOW 100S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH AMERICAN
UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A
DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS TO SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
TEXAS WORKING ITS WAY VERY SLOW INTO OUR CWA NEXT WEEKEND.

THE WORK WEEK REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM LAST
WEEK. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
OFFERING AGAIN. THE HOT UPPER RIDGE KEEPS ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINING NEARLY STEADY STATE WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY VARIATION. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER DRY
WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. HEAT INDICES ALTHOUGH
HOT TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT
MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING KEEPING THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS MANAGEABLE. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES STAYING NEAR ZERO OUR
CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS THE END OF JULY AND EARLY AUGUST IS USUALLY OUR
DRIEST TIME OF THE YEAR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. WINDS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW IN MOVING
SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE FRONT`S MOVEMENT
AND THE DAILY CONVECTION. BROAD BRUSH 20-30 PERCENTS LOOK GOOD AT
THIS TIME WITH A DETAILED FORECAST FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 /SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY/ A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT OF EACH MODEL RUN.
IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE TO DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OR ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SOUTHEAST TO EAST PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION THAT
FIRES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST COULD EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE DOWNWARD AS THE CHANCE
OF RAIN INCREASES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
IMPROVED VS YESTERDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF MOVES
WEST AND RELAXES THE LOCAL GRADIENT. SEAS CURRENTLY 3 TO 4 FEET WILL
GRADUALLY FALL TO AROUND 2 FEET BY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 10 TO 15KTS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FURTHER TOMORROW...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH WINDS AT
 MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW DIMINISHING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  95  79  94  79 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          95  78  95  79 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            99  77  97  78 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN             101  77 100  77 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     101  77 103  78 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   90  80  89  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
LONG TERM FORECASTER... GIBBS
PSU/GRAPHICAST...BIRCHFIELD/CAMPBELL






000
FXUS64 KBRO 281056 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
556 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW CLOUDS AT 015 CONTINUE TO SWEEP NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD GO NO MORE THAN SCT THROUGH
MIDMORNING...EXCEPT FOR VERY TEMPO BKN015 AT KMFE. SKIES DECREASE
TO FEW TO CLR FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY ...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OCCURRING ALONG
THE SEABREEZE. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO OPPRESS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP TO 97 TO 104 DEGREES
TODAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING AT 105 TO 108 THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF WEAKENS AND SPREADS INLAND INTO TEXAS...INDUCED BY A
WEAK MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES TO THE
WEST AND THE RIDGE RESUMES DOMINANCE ACROSS TEXAS. PW VALUES
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1.4 INCHES...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
CLOUD FORMATION DURING THE DAY. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE UPPER 90S AND
LOW 100S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH AMERICAN
UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A
DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS TO SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
TEXAS WORKING ITS WAY VERY SLOW INTO OUR CWA NEXT WEEKEND.

THE WORK WEEK REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM LAST
WEEK. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
OFFERING AGAIN. THE HOT UPPER RIDGE KEEPS ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINING NEARLY STEADY STATE WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY VARIATION. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER DRY
WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. HEAT INDICES ALTHOUGH
HOT TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT
MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING KEEPING THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS MANAGEABLE. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES STAYING NEAR ZERO OUR
CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS THE END OF JULY AND EARLY AUGUST IS USUALLY OUR
DRIEST TIME OF THE YEAR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. WINDS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW IN MOVING
SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE FRONT`S MOVEMENT
AND THE DAILY CONVECTION. BROAD BRUSH 20-30 PERCENTS LOOK GOOD AT
THIS TIME WITH A DETAILED FORECAST FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 /SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY/ A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT OF EACH MODEL RUN.
IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE TO DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OR ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SOUTHEAST TO EAST PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION THAT
FIRES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST COULD EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE DOWNWARD AS THE CHANCE
OF RAIN INCREASES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
IMPROVED VS YESTERDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF MOVES
WEST AND RELAXES THE LOCAL GRADIENT. SEAS CURRENTLY 3 TO 4 FEET WILL
GRADUALLY FALL TO AROUND 2 FEET BY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 10 TO 15KTS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FURTHER TOMORROW...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH WINDS AT
 MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW DIMINISHING.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64/64








000
FXUS64 KBRO 281056 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
556 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW CLOUDS AT 015 CONTINUE TO SWEEP NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD GO NO MORE THAN SCT THROUGH
MIDMORNING...EXCEPT FOR VERY TEMPO BKN015 AT KMFE. SKIES DECREASE
TO FEW TO CLR FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY ...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OCCURRING ALONG
THE SEABREEZE. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO OPPRESS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP TO 97 TO 104 DEGREES
TODAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING AT 105 TO 108 THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF WEAKENS AND SPREADS INLAND INTO TEXAS...INDUCED BY A
WEAK MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES TO THE
WEST AND THE RIDGE RESUMES DOMINANCE ACROSS TEXAS. PW VALUES
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1.4 INCHES...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
CLOUD FORMATION DURING THE DAY. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE UPPER 90S AND
LOW 100S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH AMERICAN
UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A
DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS TO SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
TEXAS WORKING ITS WAY VERY SLOW INTO OUR CWA NEXT WEEKEND.

THE WORK WEEK REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM LAST
WEEK. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
OFFERING AGAIN. THE HOT UPPER RIDGE KEEPS ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINING NEARLY STEADY STATE WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY VARIATION. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER DRY
WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. HEAT INDICES ALTHOUGH
HOT TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT
MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING KEEPING THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS MANAGEABLE. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES STAYING NEAR ZERO OUR
CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS THE END OF JULY AND EARLY AUGUST IS USUALLY OUR
DRIEST TIME OF THE YEAR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. WINDS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW IN MOVING
SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE FRONT`S MOVEMENT
AND THE DAILY CONVECTION. BROAD BRUSH 20-30 PERCENTS LOOK GOOD AT
THIS TIME WITH A DETAILED FORECAST FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 /SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY/ A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT OF EACH MODEL RUN.
IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE TO DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OR ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SOUTHEAST TO EAST PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION THAT
FIRES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST COULD EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE DOWNWARD AS THE CHANCE
OF RAIN INCREASES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
IMPROVED VS YESTERDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF MOVES
WEST AND RELAXES THE LOCAL GRADIENT. SEAS CURRENTLY 3 TO 4 FEET WILL
GRADUALLY FALL TO AROUND 2 FEET BY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 10 TO 15KTS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FURTHER TOMORROW...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH WINDS AT
 MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW DIMINISHING.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64/64









000
FXUS64 KBRO 280903
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
403 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO OPPRESS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP TO 97 TO 104 DEGREES
TODAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING AT 105 TO 108 THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF WEAKENS AND SPREADS INLAND INTO TEXAS...INDUCED BY A
WEAK MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES TO THE
WEST AND THE RIDGE RESUMES DOMINANCE ACROSS TEXAS. PW VALUES
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1.4 INCHES...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
CLOUD FORMATION DURING THE DAY. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE UPPER 90S AND
LOW 100S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH AMERICAN
UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A
DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS TO SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
TEXAS WORKING ITS WAY VERY SLOW INTO OUR CWA NEXT WEEKEND.

THE WORK WEEK REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM LAST
WEEK. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
OFFERING AGAIN. THE HOT UPPER RIDGE KEEPS ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINING NEARLY STEADY STATE WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY VARIATION. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER DRY
WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. HEAT INDICES ALTHOUGH
HOT TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT
MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING KEEPING THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS MANAGEABLE. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES STAYING NEAR ZERO OUR
CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS THE END OF JULY AND EARLY AUGUST IS USUALLY OUR
DRIEST TIME OF THE YEAR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. WINDS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW IN MOVING
SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE FRONT`S MOVEMENT
AND THE DAILY CONVECTION. BROAD BRUSH 20-30 PERCENTS LOOK GOOD AT
THIS TIME WITH A DETAILED FORECAST FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 /SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY/ A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT OF EACH MODEL RUN.
IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE TO DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OR ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SOUTHEAST TO EAST PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION THAT
FIRES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST COULD EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE DOWNWARD AS THE CHANCE
OF RAIN INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
IMPROVED VS YESTERDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF MOVES
WEST AND RELAXES THE LOCAL GRADIENT. SEAS CURRENTLY 3 TO 4 FEET WILL
GRADUALLY FALL TO AROUND 2 FEET BY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 10 TO 15KTS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FURTHER TOMORROW...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH WINDS AT
 MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW DIMINISHING.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  95  78  94  79 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          96  78  96  79 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN           100  77  97  78 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN             102  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     101  76 103  78 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   91  80  89  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/59






000
FXUS64 KBRO 280903
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
403 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO OPPRESS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP TO 97 TO 104 DEGREES
TODAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING AT 105 TO 108 THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF WEAKENS AND SPREADS INLAND INTO TEXAS...INDUCED BY A
WEAK MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES TO THE
WEST AND THE RIDGE RESUMES DOMINANCE ACROSS TEXAS. PW VALUES
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1.4 INCHES...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
CLOUD FORMATION DURING THE DAY. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE UPPER 90S AND
LOW 100S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH AMERICAN
UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A
DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS TO SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
TEXAS WORKING ITS WAY VERY SLOW INTO OUR CWA NEXT WEEKEND.

THE WORK WEEK REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM LAST
WEEK. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
OFFERING AGAIN. THE HOT UPPER RIDGE KEEPS ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINING NEARLY STEADY STATE WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY VARIATION. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER DRY
WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. HEAT INDICES ALTHOUGH
HOT TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT
MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING KEEPING THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS MANAGEABLE. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES STAYING NEAR ZERO OUR
CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS THE END OF JULY AND EARLY AUGUST IS USUALLY OUR
DRIEST TIME OF THE YEAR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. WINDS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW IN MOVING
SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE FRONT`S MOVEMENT
AND THE DAILY CONVECTION. BROAD BRUSH 20-30 PERCENTS LOOK GOOD AT
THIS TIME WITH A DETAILED FORECAST FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 /SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY/ A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT OF EACH MODEL RUN.
IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE TO DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OR ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SOUTHEAST TO EAST PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION THAT
FIRES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST COULD EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE DOWNWARD AS THE CHANCE
OF RAIN INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
IMPROVED VS YESTERDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF MOVES
WEST AND RELAXES THE LOCAL GRADIENT. SEAS CURRENTLY 3 TO 4 FEET WILL
GRADUALLY FALL TO AROUND 2 FEET BY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 10 TO 15KTS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FURTHER TOMORROW...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH WINDS AT
 MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW DIMINISHING.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  95  78  94  79 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          96  78  96  79 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN           100  77  97  78 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN             102  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     101  76 103  78 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   91  80  89  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/59







000
FXUS64 KBRO 280531 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1231 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES NEAR THE COAST WILL REMAIN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...WHILE CLOUD DECK BEGINNING TO FILL IN TOWARD KMFE FROM
THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SCT OVERNIGHT FOR KMFE...WITH
TEMPO BKN020. JUST AFTER SUNRISE...ANY CLOUD DOVER REMAINING WILL
LIFT...WITH FEW TO SKC THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ARRIVING WITH THE SEABREEZE
LINE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

MARINE...UPDATED TO REFLECT THE EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE. WINDS DECREASED DUE TO A WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR TAFS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN DOMINANT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ON MONDAY...WITH MDT SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AND THESE LOOKED REASONABLE (AND WERE RETAINED) GIVEN THE DRIER
AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/..
HOT/HUMID/DRY ALL WORK WEEK...BREEZIER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOME
PRECIP CHANCE SAT/SUN BUT TRENDING DRIER RUN TO RUN.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN GOVERNING THE REGIONS WEATHER CHANGES VERY
LITTLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH AN EXTENSION EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS KEEPS THE BERMUDA HIGH WELL TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA AND LEADS TO
A RELATIVELY WEAK LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
FUELED PRIMARILY BY LAND/SEA THERMAL DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING UNCOMFORTABLE AS LOW LAYER
MOISTURE IS RECHARGED BY ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S COASTAL TO 100 TO 105 INLAND WERE INHERITED AND AGREE
WITH FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE AND BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND CHANGED BOTH MAXES AND MINS VERY LITTLE IN
THIS TIME FRAME WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THURSDAY THE ONLY APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT LEE TROUGHING
APPEARS TO GROW A LITTLE MORE INTENSE AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
250/500MB DIGS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE LOCAL WINDS
BACK INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
500MB HEIGHTS STILL AROUND 592 TO 594 DAM.

FRIDAY A JET MAXIMUM WORKS DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF BROAD EASTERN US
TROUGHING AND CARRIES A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS APPEARS TO INITIATE SOME PRECIP/ACTIVITY TO OUR
NORTHEAST BUT THE NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW DOES NOT QUITE REACH
INTO THE CWA AND LEFT THE FORECAST DRY BUT STILL HOT AND BREEZY.
COLUMN RH DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT COLUMN THICKNESS VALUES DROP A
FEW DM AND FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE TRENDS FOR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
MAXES ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN DIFFERENT
FORECASTS FOR SENSIBLE WX. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH 250/500MB
RIDGING TO THE EAST AND THIS SHIFTS THE DIRECTION OF STRONGER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND REGION WHEREAS THE
ECMWF SHOWS THE RIDGING RETREATING AS DEEPER AND STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLIES PUSH INTO THE AREA. THIS MOVES A SHEAR
ZONE/BOUNDARY/AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND THE ECMWF GENERATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION/PRECIP.
THE GFS DELAYS THIS PROCESS UNTIL SUNDAY AND KEEPS SATURDAY BREEZY
AND DRY.  MODEL TRENDS FROM 12 TO 24 HOURS LEAN DRIER WITH THE
RIDGING HOLDING AND THE SEASON HAS PLAYED OUT THAT WAY SO FAR SO
WORKED THE FORECAST IN THE DRIER DIRECTION BUT DID LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. IF THE STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SOLUTION EVENTUALLY VERIFIES EITHER SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY THAT IS A PRETTY CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL WATCH CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS. KEPT MAXES A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON
SATURDAY BUT COOLED THEM ON SUNDAY OWING TO DEEPER HUMIDITY...LOWER
THICKNESSES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 18 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET WITH
A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 13 CDT/18 UTC. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 8 PM CDT TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS
AND DROP IN SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NO ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED...AND SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION IS NOT LIKELY TO BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ON THE LAGUNA MADRE AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64/64







000
FXUS64 KBRO 280531 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1231 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES NEAR THE COAST WILL REMAIN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...WHILE CLOUD DECK BEGINNING TO FILL IN TOWARD KMFE FROM
THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SCT OVERNIGHT FOR KMFE...WITH
TEMPO BKN020. JUST AFTER SUNRISE...ANY CLOUD DOVER REMAINING WILL
LIFT...WITH FEW TO SKC THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ARRIVING WITH THE SEABREEZE
LINE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

MARINE...UPDATED TO REFLECT THE EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE. WINDS DECREASED DUE TO A WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR TAFS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN DOMINANT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ON MONDAY...WITH MDT SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AND THESE LOOKED REASONABLE (AND WERE RETAINED) GIVEN THE DRIER
AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/..
HOT/HUMID/DRY ALL WORK WEEK...BREEZIER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOME
PRECIP CHANCE SAT/SUN BUT TRENDING DRIER RUN TO RUN.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN GOVERNING THE REGIONS WEATHER CHANGES VERY
LITTLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH AN EXTENSION EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS KEEPS THE BERMUDA HIGH WELL TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA AND LEADS TO
A RELATIVELY WEAK LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
FUELED PRIMARILY BY LAND/SEA THERMAL DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING UNCOMFORTABLE AS LOW LAYER
MOISTURE IS RECHARGED BY ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S COASTAL TO 100 TO 105 INLAND WERE INHERITED AND AGREE
WITH FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE AND BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND CHANGED BOTH MAXES AND MINS VERY LITTLE IN
THIS TIME FRAME WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THURSDAY THE ONLY APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT LEE TROUGHING
APPEARS TO GROW A LITTLE MORE INTENSE AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
250/500MB DIGS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE LOCAL WINDS
BACK INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
500MB HEIGHTS STILL AROUND 592 TO 594 DAM.

FRIDAY A JET MAXIMUM WORKS DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF BROAD EASTERN US
TROUGHING AND CARRIES A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS APPEARS TO INITIATE SOME PRECIP/ACTIVITY TO OUR
NORTHEAST BUT THE NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW DOES NOT QUITE REACH
INTO THE CWA AND LEFT THE FORECAST DRY BUT STILL HOT AND BREEZY.
COLUMN RH DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT COLUMN THICKNESS VALUES DROP A
FEW DM AND FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE TRENDS FOR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
MAXES ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN DIFFERENT
FORECASTS FOR SENSIBLE WX. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH 250/500MB
RIDGING TO THE EAST AND THIS SHIFTS THE DIRECTION OF STRONGER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND REGION WHEREAS THE
ECMWF SHOWS THE RIDGING RETREATING AS DEEPER AND STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLIES PUSH INTO THE AREA. THIS MOVES A SHEAR
ZONE/BOUNDARY/AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND THE ECMWF GENERATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION/PRECIP.
THE GFS DELAYS THIS PROCESS UNTIL SUNDAY AND KEEPS SATURDAY BREEZY
AND DRY.  MODEL TRENDS FROM 12 TO 24 HOURS LEAN DRIER WITH THE
RIDGING HOLDING AND THE SEASON HAS PLAYED OUT THAT WAY SO FAR SO
WORKED THE FORECAST IN THE DRIER DIRECTION BUT DID LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. IF THE STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SOLUTION EVENTUALLY VERIFIES EITHER SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY THAT IS A PRETTY CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL WATCH CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS. KEPT MAXES A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON
SATURDAY BUT COOLED THEM ON SUNDAY OWING TO DEEPER HUMIDITY...LOWER
THICKNESSES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 18 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET WITH
A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 13 CDT/18 UTC. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 8 PM CDT TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS
AND DROP IN SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NO ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED...AND SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION IS NOT LIKELY TO BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ON THE LAGUNA MADRE AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64/64








000
FXUS64 KBRO 280207 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
907 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED TO REFLECT THE EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE. WINDS DECREASED DUE TO A WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR TAFS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN DOMINANT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ON MONDAY...WITH MDT SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

.AND THESE LOOKED REASONABLE (AND WERE RETAINED) GIVEN THE DRIER
AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/..
HOT/HUMID/DRY ALL WORK WEEK...BREEZIER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOME
PRECIP CHANCE SAT/SUN BUT TRENDING DRIER RUN TO RUN.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN GOVERNING THE REGIONS WEATHER CHANGES VERY
LITTLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH AN EXTENSION EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS KEEPS THE BERMUDA HIGH WELL TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA AND LEADS TO
A RELATIVELY WEAK LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
FUELED PRIMARILY BY LAND/SEA THERMAL DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING UNCOMFORTABLE AS LOW LAYER
MOISTURE IS RECHARGED BY ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S COASTAL TO 100 TO 105 INLAND WERE INHERITED AND AGREE
WITH FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE AND BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND CHANGED BOTH MAXES AND MINS VERY LITTLE IN
THIS TIME FRAME WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THURSDAY THE ONLY APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT LEE TROUGHING
APPEARS TO GROW A LITTLE MORE INTENSE AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
250/500MB DIGS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE LOCAL WINDS
BACK INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
500MB HEIGHTS STILL AROUND 592 TO 594 DAM.

FRIDAY A JET MAXIMUM WORKS DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF BROAD EASTERN US
TROUGHING AND CARRIES A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS APPEARS TO INITIATE SOME PRECIP/ACTIVITY TO OUR
NORTHEAST BUT THE NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW DOES NOT QUITE REACH
INTO THE CWA AND LEFT THE FORECAST DRY BUT STILL HOT AND BREEZY.
COLUMN RH DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT COLUMN THICKNESS VALUES DROP A
FEW DM AND FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE TRENDS FOR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
MAXES ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN DIFFERENT
FORECASTS FOR SENSIBLE WX. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH 250/500MB
RIDGING TO THE EAST AND THIS SHIFTS THE DIRECTION OF STRONGER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND REGION WHEREAS THE
ECMWF SHOWS THE RIDGING RETREATING AS DEEPER AND STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLIES PUSH INTO THE AREA. THIS MOVES A SHEAR
ZONE/BOUNDARY/AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND THE ECMWF GENERATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION/PRECIP.
THE GFS DELAYS THIS PROCESS UNTIL SUNDAY AND KEEPS SATURDAY BREEZY
AND DRY.  MODEL TRENDS FROM 12 TO 24 HOURS LEAN DRIER WITH THE
RIDGING HOLDING AND THE SEASON HAS PLAYED OUT THAT WAY SO FAR SO
WORKED THE FORECAST IN THE DRIER DIRECTION BUT DID LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. IF THE STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SOLUTION EVENTUALLY VERIFIES EITHER SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY THAT IS A PRETTY CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL WATCH CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS. KEPT MAXES A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON
SATURDAY BUT COOLED THEM ON SUNDAY OWING TO DEEPER HUMIDITY...LOWER
THICKNESSES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 18 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET WITH
A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 13 CDT/18 UTC. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 8 PM CDT TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS
AND DROP IN SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NO ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED...AND SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION IS NOT LIKELY TO BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ON THE LAGUNA MADRE AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/63







000
FXUS64 KBRO 280207 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
907 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED TO REFLECT THE EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE. WINDS DECREASED DUE TO A WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR TAFS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN DOMINANT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ON MONDAY...WITH MDT SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

.AND THESE LOOKED REASONABLE (AND WERE RETAINED) GIVEN THE DRIER
AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/..
HOT/HUMID/DRY ALL WORK WEEK...BREEZIER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOME
PRECIP CHANCE SAT/SUN BUT TRENDING DRIER RUN TO RUN.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN GOVERNING THE REGIONS WEATHER CHANGES VERY
LITTLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH AN EXTENSION EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS KEEPS THE BERMUDA HIGH WELL TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA AND LEADS TO
A RELATIVELY WEAK LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
FUELED PRIMARILY BY LAND/SEA THERMAL DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING UNCOMFORTABLE AS LOW LAYER
MOISTURE IS RECHARGED BY ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S COASTAL TO 100 TO 105 INLAND WERE INHERITED AND AGREE
WITH FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE AND BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND CHANGED BOTH MAXES AND MINS VERY LITTLE IN
THIS TIME FRAME WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THURSDAY THE ONLY APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT LEE TROUGHING
APPEARS TO GROW A LITTLE MORE INTENSE AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
250/500MB DIGS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE LOCAL WINDS
BACK INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
500MB HEIGHTS STILL AROUND 592 TO 594 DAM.

FRIDAY A JET MAXIMUM WORKS DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF BROAD EASTERN US
TROUGHING AND CARRIES A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS APPEARS TO INITIATE SOME PRECIP/ACTIVITY TO OUR
NORTHEAST BUT THE NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW DOES NOT QUITE REACH
INTO THE CWA AND LEFT THE FORECAST DRY BUT STILL HOT AND BREEZY.
COLUMN RH DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT COLUMN THICKNESS VALUES DROP A
FEW DM AND FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE TRENDS FOR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
MAXES ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN DIFFERENT
FORECASTS FOR SENSIBLE WX. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH 250/500MB
RIDGING TO THE EAST AND THIS SHIFTS THE DIRECTION OF STRONGER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND REGION WHEREAS THE
ECMWF SHOWS THE RIDGING RETREATING AS DEEPER AND STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLIES PUSH INTO THE AREA. THIS MOVES A SHEAR
ZONE/BOUNDARY/AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND THE ECMWF GENERATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION/PRECIP.
THE GFS DELAYS THIS PROCESS UNTIL SUNDAY AND KEEPS SATURDAY BREEZY
AND DRY.  MODEL TRENDS FROM 12 TO 24 HOURS LEAN DRIER WITH THE
RIDGING HOLDING AND THE SEASON HAS PLAYED OUT THAT WAY SO FAR SO
WORKED THE FORECAST IN THE DRIER DIRECTION BUT DID LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. IF THE STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SOLUTION EVENTUALLY VERIFIES EITHER SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY THAT IS A PRETTY CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL WATCH CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS. KEPT MAXES A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON
SATURDAY BUT COOLED THEM ON SUNDAY OWING TO DEEPER HUMIDITY...LOWER
THICKNESSES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 18 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET WITH
A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 13 CDT/18 UTC. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 8 PM CDT TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS
AND DROP IN SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NO ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED...AND SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION IS NOT LIKELY TO BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ON THE LAGUNA MADRE AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/63






000
FXUS64 KBRO 272337 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
637 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN DOMINANT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ON MONDAY...WITH MDT SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

..AND THESE LOOKED REASONABLE (AND WERE RETAINED) GIVEN THE DRIER
AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/..
HOT/HUMID/DRY ALL WORK WEEK...BREEZIER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOME
PRECIP CHANCE SAT/SUN BUT TRENDING DRIER RUN TO RUN.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN GOVERNING THE REGIONS WEATHER CHANGES VERY
LITTLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH AN EXTENSION EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS KEEPS THE BERMUDA HIGH WELL TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA AND LEADS TO
A RELATIVELY WEAK LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
FUELED PRIMARILY BY LAND/SEA THERMAL DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING UNCOMFORTABLE AS LOW LAYER
MOISTURE IS RECHARGED BY ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S COASTAL TO 100 TO 105 INLAND WERE INHERITED AND AGREE
WITH FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE AND BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND CHANGED BOTH MAXES AND MINS VERY LITTLE IN
THIS TIME FRAME WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THURSDAY THE ONLY APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT LEE TROUGHING
APPEARS TO GROW A LITTLE MORE INTENSE AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
250/500MB DIGS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE LOCAL WINDS
BACK INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
500MB HEIGHTS STILL AROUND 592 TO 594 DAM.

FRIDAY A JET MAXIMUM WORKS DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF BROAD EASTERN US
TROUGHING AND CARRIES A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS APPEARS TO INITIATE SOME PRECIP/ACTIVITY TO OUR
NORTHEAST BUT THE NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW DOES NOT QUITE REACH
INTO THE CWA AND LEFT THE FORECAST DRY BUT STILL HOT AND BREEZY.
COLUMN RH DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT COLUMN THICKNESS VALUES DROP A
FEW DM AND FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE TRENDS FOR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
MAXES ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN DIFFERENT
FORECASTS FOR SENSIBLE WX. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH 250/500MB
RIDGING TO THE EAST AND THIS SHIFTS THE DIRECTION OF STRONGER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND REGION WHEREAS THE
ECMWF SHOWS THE RIDGING RETREATING AS DEEPER AND STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLIES PUSH INTO THE AREA. THIS MOVES A SHEAR
ZONE/BOUNDARY/AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND THE ECMWF GENERATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION/PRECIP.
THE GFS DELAYS THIS PROCESS UNTIL SUNDAY AND KEEPS SATURDAY BREEZY
AND DRY.  MODEL TRENDS FROM 12 TO 24 HOURS LEAN DRIER WITH THE
RIDGING HOLDING AND THE SEASON HAS PLAYED OUT THAT WAY SO FAR SO
WORKED THE FORECAST IN THE DRIER DIRECTION BUT DID LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. IF THE STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SOLUTION EVENTUALLY VERIFIES EITHER SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY THAT IS A PRETTY CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL WATCH CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS. KEPT MAXES A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON
SATURDAY BUT COOLED THEM ON SUNDAY OWING TO DEEPER HUMIDITY...LOWER
THICKNESSES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 18 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET WITH
A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 13 CDT/18 UTC. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 8 PM CDT TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS
AND DROP IN SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NO ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED...AND SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION IS NOT LIKELY TO BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ON THE LAGUNA MADRE AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/63/58





000
FXUS64 KBRO 272337 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
637 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN DOMINANT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ON MONDAY...WITH MDT SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

..AND THESE LOOKED REASONABLE (AND WERE RETAINED) GIVEN THE DRIER
AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/..
HOT/HUMID/DRY ALL WORK WEEK...BREEZIER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOME
PRECIP CHANCE SAT/SUN BUT TRENDING DRIER RUN TO RUN.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN GOVERNING THE REGIONS WEATHER CHANGES VERY
LITTLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH AN EXTENSION EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS KEEPS THE BERMUDA HIGH WELL TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA AND LEADS TO
A RELATIVELY WEAK LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
FUELED PRIMARILY BY LAND/SEA THERMAL DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING UNCOMFORTABLE AS LOW LAYER
MOISTURE IS RECHARGED BY ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S COASTAL TO 100 TO 105 INLAND WERE INHERITED AND AGREE
WITH FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE AND BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND CHANGED BOTH MAXES AND MINS VERY LITTLE IN
THIS TIME FRAME WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THURSDAY THE ONLY APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT LEE TROUGHING
APPEARS TO GROW A LITTLE MORE INTENSE AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
250/500MB DIGS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE LOCAL WINDS
BACK INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
500MB HEIGHTS STILL AROUND 592 TO 594 DAM.

FRIDAY A JET MAXIMUM WORKS DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF BROAD EASTERN US
TROUGHING AND CARRIES A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS APPEARS TO INITIATE SOME PRECIP/ACTIVITY TO OUR
NORTHEAST BUT THE NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW DOES NOT QUITE REACH
INTO THE CWA AND LEFT THE FORECAST DRY BUT STILL HOT AND BREEZY.
COLUMN RH DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT COLUMN THICKNESS VALUES DROP A
FEW DM AND FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE TRENDS FOR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
MAXES ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN DIFFERENT
FORECASTS FOR SENSIBLE WX. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH 250/500MB
RIDGING TO THE EAST AND THIS SHIFTS THE DIRECTION OF STRONGER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND REGION WHEREAS THE
ECMWF SHOWS THE RIDGING RETREATING AS DEEPER AND STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLIES PUSH INTO THE AREA. THIS MOVES A SHEAR
ZONE/BOUNDARY/AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND THE ECMWF GENERATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION/PRECIP.
THE GFS DELAYS THIS PROCESS UNTIL SUNDAY AND KEEPS SATURDAY BREEZY
AND DRY.  MODEL TRENDS FROM 12 TO 24 HOURS LEAN DRIER WITH THE
RIDGING HOLDING AND THE SEASON HAS PLAYED OUT THAT WAY SO FAR SO
WORKED THE FORECAST IN THE DRIER DIRECTION BUT DID LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. IF THE STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SOLUTION EVENTUALLY VERIFIES EITHER SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY THAT IS A PRETTY CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL WATCH CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS. KEPT MAXES A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON
SATURDAY BUT COOLED THEM ON SUNDAY OWING TO DEEPER HUMIDITY...LOWER
THICKNESSES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 18 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET WITH
A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 13 CDT/18 UTC. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 8 PM CDT TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS
AND DROP IN SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NO ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED...AND SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION IS NOT LIKELY TO BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ON THE LAGUNA MADRE AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/63/58






000
FXUS64 KBRO 271945
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
245 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
TEMPERATURES STEADILY ROCKETING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH THE
WESTWARD-MOVING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES. EVEN WITH THE MOST RECENT KBRO UPPER-AIR
SOUNDING SHOWING 1.66 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND ABUNDANT
DRY AIR ABOVE 2000 FEET...SOME CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING SLIGHTLY TO NEAR
1.5 INCHES...AND 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS
AND EXTENDED OVER THE BRO CWFA...DRY AIR WILL RESULT.

MONDAY...INVERTED 500 MB TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE BASE OF THE RIDGE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE EAST AND MOVE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
ADJACENT NORTH OF MEXICO. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH CONTINUED LIMITED
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST. FELT INHERITED HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE A LITTLE TOO COOL...
SO OPTED TO INDICATE EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY FOR THIS
DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...WITH EVEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE BRO CWFA (PWATS
NEARING 1 INCH)...MORE DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY. INHERITED OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE 1 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS
...AND THESE LOOKED REASONABLE (AND WERE RETAINED) GIVEN THE DRIER
AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/..
HOT/HUMID/DRY ALL WORK WEEK...BREEZIER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOME
PRECIP CHANCE SAT/SUN BUT TRENDING DRIER RUN TO RUN.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN GOVERNING THE REGIONS WEATHER CHANGES VERY
LITTLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH AN EXTENSION EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS KEEPS THE BERMUDA HIGH WELL TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA AND LEADS TO
A RELATIVELY WEAK LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
FUELED PRIMARILY BY LAND/SEA THERMAL DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING UNCOMFORTABLE AS LOW LAYER
MOISTURE IS RECHARGED BY ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S COASTAL TO 100 TO 105 INLAND WERE INHERITED AND AGREE
WITH FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE AND BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND CHANGED BOTH MAXES AND MINS VERY LITTLE IN
THIS TIME FRAME WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THURSDAY THE ONLY APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT LEE TROUGHING
APPEARS TO GROW A LITTLE MORE INTENSE AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
250/500MB DIGS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE LOCAL WINDS
BACK INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
500MB HEIGHTS STILL AROUND 592 TO 594 DAM.

FRIDAY A JET MAXIMUM WORKS DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF BROAD EASTERN US
TROUGHING AND CARRIES A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS APPEARS TO INITIATE SOME PRECIP/ACTIVITY TO OUR
NORTHEAST BUT THE NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW DOES NOT QUITE REACH
INTO THE CWA AND LEFT THE FORECAST DRY BUT STILL HOT AND BREEZY.
COLUMN RH DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT COLUMN THICKNESS VALUES DROP A
FEW DM AND FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE TRENDS FOR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
MAXES ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN DIFFERENT
FORECASTS FOR SENSIBLE WX. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH 250/500MB
RIDGING TO THE EAST AND THIS SHIFTS THE DIRECTION OF STRONGER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND REGION WHEREAS THE
ECMWF SHOWS THE RIDGING RETREATING AS DEEPER AND STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLIES PUSH INTO THE AREA. THIS MOVES A SHEAR
ZONE/BOUNDARY/AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND THE ECMWF GENERATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION/PRECIP.
THE GFS DELAYS THIS PROCESS UNTIL SUNDAY AND KEEPS SATURDAY BREEZY
AND DRY.  MODEL TRENDS FROM 12 TO 24 HOURS LEAN DRIER WITH THE
RIDGING HOLDING AND THE SEASON HAS PLAYED OUT THAT WAY SO FAR SO
WORKED THE FORECAST IN THE DRIER DIRECTION BUT DID LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. IF THE STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SOLUTION EVENTUALLY VERIFIES EITHER SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY THAT IS A PRETTY CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL WATCH CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS. KEPT MAXES A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON
SATURDAY BUT COOLED THEM ON SUNDAY OWING TO DEEPER HUMIDITY...LOWER
THICKNESSES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION. /68-JGG/

&&

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 18 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET WITH
A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 13 CDT/18 UTC. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 8 PM CDT TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS
AND DROP IN SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NO ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED...AND SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION IS NOT LIKELY TO BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ON THE LAGUNA MADRE AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  96  78  94 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          78  96  78  95 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            77 100  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              79 102  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 102  77 102 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  92  80  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...66-TOMASELLI
LONG TERM...68-GIBBS
UPPER AIR/GRAPHICAST...BILLINGS






000
FXUS64 KBRO 271945
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
245 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
TEMPERATURES STEADILY ROCKETING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH THE
WESTWARD-MOVING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES. EVEN WITH THE MOST RECENT KBRO UPPER-AIR
SOUNDING SHOWING 1.66 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND ABUNDANT
DRY AIR ABOVE 2000 FEET...SOME CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING SLIGHTLY TO NEAR
1.5 INCHES...AND 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS
AND EXTENDED OVER THE BRO CWFA...DRY AIR WILL RESULT.

MONDAY...INVERTED 500 MB TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE BASE OF THE RIDGE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE EAST AND MOVE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
ADJACENT NORTH OF MEXICO. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH CONTINUED LIMITED
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST. FELT INHERITED HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE A LITTLE TOO COOL...
SO OPTED TO INDICATE EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY FOR THIS
DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...WITH EVEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE BRO CWFA (PWATS
NEARING 1 INCH)...MORE DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY. INHERITED OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE 1 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS
...AND THESE LOOKED REASONABLE (AND WERE RETAINED) GIVEN THE DRIER
AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/..
HOT/HUMID/DRY ALL WORK WEEK...BREEZIER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOME
PRECIP CHANCE SAT/SUN BUT TRENDING DRIER RUN TO RUN.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN GOVERNING THE REGIONS WEATHER CHANGES VERY
LITTLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH AN EXTENSION EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS KEEPS THE BERMUDA HIGH WELL TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA AND LEADS TO
A RELATIVELY WEAK LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
FUELED PRIMARILY BY LAND/SEA THERMAL DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING UNCOMFORTABLE AS LOW LAYER
MOISTURE IS RECHARGED BY ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S COASTAL TO 100 TO 105 INLAND WERE INHERITED AND AGREE
WITH FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE AND BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND CHANGED BOTH MAXES AND MINS VERY LITTLE IN
THIS TIME FRAME WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THURSDAY THE ONLY APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT LEE TROUGHING
APPEARS TO GROW A LITTLE MORE INTENSE AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
250/500MB DIGS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE LOCAL WINDS
BACK INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
500MB HEIGHTS STILL AROUND 592 TO 594 DAM.

FRIDAY A JET MAXIMUM WORKS DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF BROAD EASTERN US
TROUGHING AND CARRIES A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS APPEARS TO INITIATE SOME PRECIP/ACTIVITY TO OUR
NORTHEAST BUT THE NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW DOES NOT QUITE REACH
INTO THE CWA AND LEFT THE FORECAST DRY BUT STILL HOT AND BREEZY.
COLUMN RH DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT COLUMN THICKNESS VALUES DROP A
FEW DM AND FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE TRENDS FOR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
MAXES ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN DIFFERENT
FORECASTS FOR SENSIBLE WX. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH 250/500MB
RIDGING TO THE EAST AND THIS SHIFTS THE DIRECTION OF STRONGER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND REGION WHEREAS THE
ECMWF SHOWS THE RIDGING RETREATING AS DEEPER AND STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLIES PUSH INTO THE AREA. THIS MOVES A SHEAR
ZONE/BOUNDARY/AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND THE ECMWF GENERATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION/PRECIP.
THE GFS DELAYS THIS PROCESS UNTIL SUNDAY AND KEEPS SATURDAY BREEZY
AND DRY.  MODEL TRENDS FROM 12 TO 24 HOURS LEAN DRIER WITH THE
RIDGING HOLDING AND THE SEASON HAS PLAYED OUT THAT WAY SO FAR SO
WORKED THE FORECAST IN THE DRIER DIRECTION BUT DID LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. IF THE STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SOLUTION EVENTUALLY VERIFIES EITHER SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY THAT IS A PRETTY CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL WATCH CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS. KEPT MAXES A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON
SATURDAY BUT COOLED THEM ON SUNDAY OWING TO DEEPER HUMIDITY...LOWER
THICKNESSES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION. /68-JGG/

&&

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 18 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET WITH
A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 13 CDT/18 UTC. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 8 PM CDT TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS
AND DROP IN SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NO ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED...AND SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION IS NOT LIKELY TO BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ON THE LAGUNA MADRE AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  96  78  94 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          78  96  78  95 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            77 100  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              79 102  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 102  77 102 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  92  80  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...66-TOMASELLI
LONG TERM...68-GIBBS
UPPER AIR/GRAPHICAST...BILLINGS





000
FXUS64 KBRO 271738 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1238 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDINESS AROUND 4500 FEET IS
STREAMING ONSHORE AND AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH BREEZY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE IN PLACE. THESE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNTIL WINDS DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET IF NOT A LITTLE LATER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY ON MONDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ONGOING
SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A COUPLE SMALL AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1500 HAVE
BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE NOT
AFFECTED LOCAL AIRPORTS. ANY CLOUDS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH WILL
REMAIN SCT...AND WILL NOT REMAIN NEAR AIRPORTS FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY WITH MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15G20KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 25KTS. WINDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
WITH SKIES AGAIN REMAINING GENERALLY CLEAR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...IT IS HOT. AGAIN... MIDLEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM ACROSS TEXAS. MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE ARE MINIMIZING CLOUD COVER AND ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR TODAY...REACHING 100 DEGREES FOR ALL AREAS
WEST OF US 77...WITH UPPER 90S RECORDED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 TO 110 FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. PGF TIGHTENING BETWEEN GULF SFC HIGH AND HEAT LOW
ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RAMP UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH
TODAY. TOMORROW...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
UNDERCUTS THE DOMINANT RIDGE AND SWEEPS WWD INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...CLIPPING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE MOISTURE WILL STILL
REMAIN LIMITED BELOW 1.5 INCHES...THICKNESS VALUES DECREASE
SLIGHTLY...KNOCKING A COUPLE DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES. BUT YOU
LIKELY WONT NOTICE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 99 AND 101
DEGREES. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BE LOWER THAN SUNDAY DUE TO
WEAKENING OF THE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE NW GULF.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...FINALLY CHANGES ARE ON
THE WAY BUT WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND REMAIN CONSISTENT IN CARVING OUT ANOTHER
UNUSUAL COLD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. AS THIS
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING MUCH OF
TEXAS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND RAINLESS CONDITIONS TO RETREAT
WESTWARD LOOSENING IT GRIP ON DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE LIGHTER WINDS AND A SLOW GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND OF
TEMPERATURES. AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD THE BERMUDA HIGH
EXTENDING OVER THE GULF GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD WEAKENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. STILL SUFFICIENT LOW
PRESSURE INLAND FROM THE THERMAL LOW BUT WITH A WEAKER SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE GULF THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
MODERATE SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN HOT BUT WILL TREND
DOWNWARD TOWARDS NORMAL BUT MAY NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EAST AND THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS WILL BEGIN THE UPWARD TREND OF PRECIPITATION. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO PUSH THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT WELL INTO THE RGV
SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH. IN
ANY CASE MOISTURE TO DEEPEN AND POOL SOUTH AND ALONG THE EVENTUAL
ENDING LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO
TREND UPWARD ON POPS AND AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE RESULTS IN
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WOULD EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OR OVER THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE GREATEST. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. IF THE BOUNDARY BECOMES DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA
THEN HOMEGROWN CONVECTION IS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH CLOUDS AND CONVECTION BUT COULD EVEN GO LOWER
IF THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT INTO THE CWA.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
LAGUNA MADRE FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY...WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR
20 KNOTS. WILL BE HOISTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE RISK OF GUST WINDS. WINDS RELAX
TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND THE LOWER WINDS
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. SEAS OFFSHORE CURRENTLY FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET...WITH LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE A DOWNWARD
TREND BECOMING LIGHT BY TUESDAY AND REMAINING LOW THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEAS TO RESPOND BECOMING SLIGHT BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD ENTER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV






000
FXUS64 KBRO 271738 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1238 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDINESS AROUND 4500 FEET IS
STREAMING ONSHORE AND AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH BREEZY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE IN PLACE. THESE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNTIL WINDS DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET IF NOT A LITTLE LATER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY ON MONDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ONGOING
SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A COUPLE SMALL AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1500 HAVE
BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE NOT
AFFECTED LOCAL AIRPORTS. ANY CLOUDS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH WILL
REMAIN SCT...AND WILL NOT REMAIN NEAR AIRPORTS FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY WITH MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15G20KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 25KTS. WINDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
WITH SKIES AGAIN REMAINING GENERALLY CLEAR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...IT IS HOT. AGAIN... MIDLEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM ACROSS TEXAS. MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE ARE MINIMIZING CLOUD COVER AND ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR TODAY...REACHING 100 DEGREES FOR ALL AREAS
WEST OF US 77...WITH UPPER 90S RECORDED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 TO 110 FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. PGF TIGHTENING BETWEEN GULF SFC HIGH AND HEAT LOW
ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RAMP UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH
TODAY. TOMORROW...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
UNDERCUTS THE DOMINANT RIDGE AND SWEEPS WWD INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...CLIPPING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE MOISTURE WILL STILL
REMAIN LIMITED BELOW 1.5 INCHES...THICKNESS VALUES DECREASE
SLIGHTLY...KNOCKING A COUPLE DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES. BUT YOU
LIKELY WONT NOTICE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 99 AND 101
DEGREES. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BE LOWER THAN SUNDAY DUE TO
WEAKENING OF THE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE NW GULF.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...FINALLY CHANGES ARE ON
THE WAY BUT WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND REMAIN CONSISTENT IN CARVING OUT ANOTHER
UNUSUAL COLD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. AS THIS
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING MUCH OF
TEXAS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND RAINLESS CONDITIONS TO RETREAT
WESTWARD LOOSENING IT GRIP ON DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE LIGHTER WINDS AND A SLOW GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND OF
TEMPERATURES. AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD THE BERMUDA HIGH
EXTENDING OVER THE GULF GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD WEAKENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. STILL SUFFICIENT LOW
PRESSURE INLAND FROM THE THERMAL LOW BUT WITH A WEAKER SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE GULF THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
MODERATE SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN HOT BUT WILL TREND
DOWNWARD TOWARDS NORMAL BUT MAY NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EAST AND THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS WILL BEGIN THE UPWARD TREND OF PRECIPITATION. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO PUSH THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT WELL INTO THE RGV
SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH. IN
ANY CASE MOISTURE TO DEEPEN AND POOL SOUTH AND ALONG THE EVENTUAL
ENDING LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO
TREND UPWARD ON POPS AND AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE RESULTS IN
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WOULD EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OR OVER THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE GREATEST. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. IF THE BOUNDARY BECOMES DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA
THEN HOMEGROWN CONVECTION IS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH CLOUDS AND CONVECTION BUT COULD EVEN GO LOWER
IF THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT INTO THE CWA.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
LAGUNA MADRE FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY...WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR
20 KNOTS. WILL BE HOISTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE RISK OF GUST WINDS. WINDS RELAX
TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND THE LOWER WINDS
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. SEAS OFFSHORE CURRENTLY FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET...WITH LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE A DOWNWARD
TREND BECOMING LIGHT BY TUESDAY AND REMAINING LOW THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEAS TO RESPOND BECOMING SLIGHT BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD ENTER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KBRO 271127 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
627 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A COUPLE SMALL AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1500 HAVE
BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE NOT
AFFECTED LOCAL AIRPORTS. ANY CLOUDS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH WILL
REMAIN SCT...AND WILL NOT REMAIN NEAR AIRPORTS FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY WITH MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15G20KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 25KTS. WINDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
WITH SKIES AGAIN REMAINING GENERALLY CLEAR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...IT IS HOT. AGAIN... MIDLEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM ACROSS TEXAS. MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE ARE MINIMIZING CLOUD COVER AND ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR TODAY...REACHING 100 DEGREES FOR ALL AREAS
WEST OF US 77...WITH UPPER 90S RECORDED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 TO 110 FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. PGF TIGHTENING BETWEEN GULF SFC HIGH AND HEAT LOW
ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RAMP UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH
TODAY. TOMORROW...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
UNDERCUTS THE DOMINANT RIDGE AND SWEEPS WWD INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...CLIPPING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE MOISTURE WILL STILL
REMAIN LIMITED BELOW 1.5 INCHES...THICKNESS VALUES DECREASE
SLIGHTLY...KNOCKING A COUPLE DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES. BUT YOU
LIKELY WONT NOTICE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 99 AND 101
DEGREES. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BE LOWER THAN SUNDAY DUE TO
WEAKENING OF THE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE NW GULF.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...FINALLY CHANGES ARE ON
THE WAY BUT WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND REMAIN CONSISTENT IN CARVING OUT ANOTHER
UNUSUAL COLD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. AS THIS
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING MUCH OF
TEXAS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND RAINLESS CONDITIONS TO RETREAT
WESTWARD LOOSENING IT GRIP ON DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE LIGHTER WINDS AND A SLOW GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND OF
TEMPERATURES. AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD THE BERMUDA HIGH
EXTENDING OVER THE GULF GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD WEAKENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. STILL SUFFICIENT LOW
PRESSURE INLAND FROM THE THERMAL LOW BUT WITH A WEAKER SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE GULF THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
MODERATE SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN HOT BUT WILL TREND
DOWNWARD TOWARDS NORMAL BUT MAY NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EAST AND THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS WILL BEGIN THE UPWARD TREND OF PRECIPITATION. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO PUSH THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT WELL INTO THE RGV
SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH. IN
ANY CASE MOISTURE TO DEEPEN AND POOL SOUTH AND ALONG THE EVENTUAL
ENDING LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO
TREND UPWARD ON POPS AND AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE RESULTS IN
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WOULD EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OR OVER THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE GREATEST. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. IF THE BOUNDARY BECOMES DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA
THEN HOMEGROWN CONVECTION IS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH CLOUDS AND CONVECTION BUT COULD EVEN GO LOWER
IF THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT INTO THE CWA.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
LAGUNA MADRE FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY...WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR
20 KNOTS. WILL BE HOISTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE RISK OF GUST WINDS. WINDS RELAX
TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND THE LOWER WINDS
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. SEAS OFFSHORE CURRENTLY FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET...WITH LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE A DOWNWARD
TREND BECOMING LIGHT BY TUESDAY AND REMAINING LOW THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEAS TO RESPOND BECOMING SLIGHT BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD ENTER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64







000
FXUS64 KBRO 271127 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
627 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A COUPLE SMALL AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1500 HAVE
BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE NOT
AFFECTED LOCAL AIRPORTS. ANY CLOUDS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH WILL
REMAIN SCT...AND WILL NOT REMAIN NEAR AIRPORTS FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY WITH MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15G20KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 25KTS. WINDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
WITH SKIES AGAIN REMAINING GENERALLY CLEAR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...IT IS HOT. AGAIN... MIDLEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM ACROSS TEXAS. MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE ARE MINIMIZING CLOUD COVER AND ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR TODAY...REACHING 100 DEGREES FOR ALL AREAS
WEST OF US 77...WITH UPPER 90S RECORDED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 TO 110 FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. PGF TIGHTENING BETWEEN GULF SFC HIGH AND HEAT LOW
ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RAMP UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH
TODAY. TOMORROW...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
UNDERCUTS THE DOMINANT RIDGE AND SWEEPS WWD INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...CLIPPING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE MOISTURE WILL STILL
REMAIN LIMITED BELOW 1.5 INCHES...THICKNESS VALUES DECREASE
SLIGHTLY...KNOCKING A COUPLE DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES. BUT YOU
LIKELY WONT NOTICE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 99 AND 101
DEGREES. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BE LOWER THAN SUNDAY DUE TO
WEAKENING OF THE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE NW GULF.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...FINALLY CHANGES ARE ON
THE WAY BUT WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND REMAIN CONSISTENT IN CARVING OUT ANOTHER
UNUSUAL COLD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. AS THIS
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING MUCH OF
TEXAS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND RAINLESS CONDITIONS TO RETREAT
WESTWARD LOOSENING IT GRIP ON DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE LIGHTER WINDS AND A SLOW GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND OF
TEMPERATURES. AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD THE BERMUDA HIGH
EXTENDING OVER THE GULF GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD WEAKENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. STILL SUFFICIENT LOW
PRESSURE INLAND FROM THE THERMAL LOW BUT WITH A WEAKER SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE GULF THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
MODERATE SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN HOT BUT WILL TREND
DOWNWARD TOWARDS NORMAL BUT MAY NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EAST AND THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS WILL BEGIN THE UPWARD TREND OF PRECIPITATION. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO PUSH THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT WELL INTO THE RGV
SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH. IN
ANY CASE MOISTURE TO DEEPEN AND POOL SOUTH AND ALONG THE EVENTUAL
ENDING LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO
TREND UPWARD ON POPS AND AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE RESULTS IN
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WOULD EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OR OVER THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE GREATEST. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. IF THE BOUNDARY BECOMES DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA
THEN HOMEGROWN CONVECTION IS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH CLOUDS AND CONVECTION BUT COULD EVEN GO LOWER
IF THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT INTO THE CWA.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
LAGUNA MADRE FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY...WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR
20 KNOTS. WILL BE HOISTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE RISK OF GUST WINDS. WINDS RELAX
TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND THE LOWER WINDS
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. SEAS OFFSHORE CURRENTLY FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET...WITH LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE A DOWNWARD
TREND BECOMING LIGHT BY TUESDAY AND REMAINING LOW THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEAS TO RESPOND BECOMING SLIGHT BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD ENTER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64






000
FXUS64 KBRO 270917
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
417 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...IT IS HOT. AGAIN... MIDLEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM ACROSS TEXAS. MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE ARE MINIMIZING CLOUD COVER AND ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR TODAY...REACHING 100 DEGREES FOR ALL AREAS
WEST OF US 77...WITH UPPER 90S RECORDED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 TO 110 FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. PGF TIGHTENING BETWEEN GULF SFC HIGH AND HEAT LOW
ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RAMP UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH
TODAY. TOMORROW...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
UNDERCUTS THE DOMINANT RIDGE AND SWEEPS WWD INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...CLIPPING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE MOISTURE WILL STILL
REMAIN LIMITED BELOW 1.5 INCHES...THICKNESS VALUES DECREASE
SLIGHTLY...KNOCKING A COUPLE DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES. BUT YOU
LIKELY WONT NOTICE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 99 AND 101
DEGREES. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BE LOWER THAN SUNDAY DUE TO
WEAKENING OF THE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE NW GULF.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...FINALLY CHANGES ARE ON
THE WAY BUT WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND REMAIN CONSISTENT IN CARVING OUT ANOTHER
UNUSUAL COLD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. AS THIS
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING MUCH OF
TEXAS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND RAINLESS CONDITIONS TO RETREAT
WESTWARD LOOSENING IT GRIP ON DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE LIGHTER WINDS AND A SLOW GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND OF
TEMPERATURES. AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD THE BERMUDA HIGH
EXTENDING OVER THE GULF GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD WEAKENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. STILL SUFFICIENT LOW
PRESSURE INLAND FROM THE THERMAL LOW BUT WITH A WEAKER SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE GULF THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
MODERATE SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN HOT BUT WILL TREND
DOWNWARD TOWARDS NORMAL BUT MAY NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EAST AND THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS WILL BEGIN THE UPWARD TREND OF PRECIPITATION. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO PUSH THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT WELL INTO THE RGV
SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH. IN
ANY CASE MOISTURE TO DEEPEN AND POOL SOUTH AND ALONG THE EVENTUAL
ENDING LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO
TREND UPWARD ON POPS AND AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE RESULTS IN
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WOULD EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OR OVER THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE GREATEST. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. IF THE BOUNDARY BECOMES DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA
THEN HOMEGROWN CONVECTION IS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH CLOUDS AND CONVECTION BUT COULD EVEN GO LOWER
IF THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT INTO THE CWA.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
LAGUNA MADRE FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY...WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR
20 KNOTS. WILL BE HOISTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE RISK OF GUST WINDS. WINDS RELAX
TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND THE LOWER WINDS
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. SEAS OFFSHORE CURRENTLY FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET...WITH LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE A DOWNWARD
TREND BECOMING LIGHT BY TUESDAY AND REMAINING LOW THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEAS TO RESPOND BECOMING SLIGHT BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD ENTER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  80  95  78 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          96  78  95  78 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN           100  77  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN             102  79 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  79 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   92  79  90  80 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
BIRCHFIELD/CAMPBELL...PSU/GRAPHICS






000
FXUS64 KBRO 270917
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
417 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...IT IS HOT. AGAIN... MIDLEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM ACROSS TEXAS. MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE ARE MINIMIZING CLOUD COVER AND ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR TODAY...REACHING 100 DEGREES FOR ALL AREAS
WEST OF US 77...WITH UPPER 90S RECORDED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 TO 110 FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. PGF TIGHTENING BETWEEN GULF SFC HIGH AND HEAT LOW
ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RAMP UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH
TODAY. TOMORROW...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
UNDERCUTS THE DOMINANT RIDGE AND SWEEPS WWD INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...CLIPPING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE MOISTURE WILL STILL
REMAIN LIMITED BELOW 1.5 INCHES...THICKNESS VALUES DECREASE
SLIGHTLY...KNOCKING A COUPLE DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES. BUT YOU
LIKELY WONT NOTICE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 99 AND 101
DEGREES. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BE LOWER THAN SUNDAY DUE TO
WEAKENING OF THE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE NW GULF.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...FINALLY CHANGES ARE ON
THE WAY BUT WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND REMAIN CONSISTENT IN CARVING OUT ANOTHER
UNUSUAL COLD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. AS THIS
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING MUCH OF
TEXAS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND RAINLESS CONDITIONS TO RETREAT
WESTWARD LOOSENING IT GRIP ON DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE LIGHTER WINDS AND A SLOW GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND OF
TEMPERATURES. AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD THE BERMUDA HIGH
EXTENDING OVER THE GULF GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD WEAKENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. STILL SUFFICIENT LOW
PRESSURE INLAND FROM THE THERMAL LOW BUT WITH A WEAKER SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE GULF THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
MODERATE SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN HOT BUT WILL TREND
DOWNWARD TOWARDS NORMAL BUT MAY NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EAST AND THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS WILL BEGIN THE UPWARD TREND OF PRECIPITATION. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO PUSH THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT WELL INTO THE RGV
SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH. IN
ANY CASE MOISTURE TO DEEPEN AND POOL SOUTH AND ALONG THE EVENTUAL
ENDING LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO
TREND UPWARD ON POPS AND AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE RESULTS IN
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WOULD EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OR OVER THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE GREATEST. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. IF THE BOUNDARY BECOMES DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA
THEN HOMEGROWN CONVECTION IS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH CLOUDS AND CONVECTION BUT COULD EVEN GO LOWER
IF THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT INTO THE CWA.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
LAGUNA MADRE FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY...WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR
20 KNOTS. WILL BE HOISTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE RISK OF GUST WINDS. WINDS RELAX
TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND THE LOWER WINDS
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. SEAS OFFSHORE CURRENTLY FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET...WITH LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE A DOWNWARD
TREND BECOMING LIGHT BY TUESDAY AND REMAINING LOW THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEAS TO RESPOND BECOMING SLIGHT BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD ENTER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  80  95  78 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          96  78  95  78 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN           100  77  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN             102  79 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  79 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   92  79  90  80 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
BIRCHFIELD/CAMPBELL...PSU/GRAPHICS







000
FXUS64 KBRO 270533 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1233 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AROUND 10
KNOTS...AS SOME MIXING FROM ALOFT OCCURS. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE MIDMORNING TO 15
TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS AREAWIDE. A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR AIRPORTS NEAR THE COAST...WHILE INLAND STATION REMAIN CLEAR
THRU 24 HOURS. WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT REMAIN A BIT BREEZY AROUND 15
KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

MARINE...DROPPED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS FOR AFFECTED MARINE
ZONES DUE TO DECREASING NIGHT TIME WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR TAFS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...PROVIDING SYNOPTIC
SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FORCING FOR PERSISTENT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS.
HOWEVER...AS HEATING WANES...BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BECOMING MODERATE OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...A WARM CORE HEAT LOW OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL HELP
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
EVENING. CLOUD STREETS OF FEW TO SCT LOW CU WILL FORM UP ALONG THE
COAST...WITH SOME CLEARING TO FULL SUNNY SKIES OVER THE NORTHEAST
CWA WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...BUT LESS SO OVER THE TAF SITES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA...WHERE MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD
PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ONLY REAL ADJUSTMENT FROM YESTERDAY
BEING STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS...A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 100S BY THE END OF THE DAY IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER VALLEY AND MAY HIT 100 IN PARTS OF THE LOWER VALLEY AS WELL.
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO LOWER 70S ARE KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME STEADY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND WORK TO
KEEP LOW TEMPS MILD...FROM ABOUT 77 TO 81 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
850/700MB MOISTURE AND THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER WILL BE
LIMITED TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LOW CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
FORECAST IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TOMORROW.
ONLY SLIGHT INCREASES TO LAYER THICKNESS VALUES APPEAR IN SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE WITH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT VERY SIMILAR
LEVELS. FORECASTING MAX AND HOURLY TEMPS CLOSE TO BUT JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 108 TO 111 WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WEAKENED BY THESE
SOUTHEASTERLIES AND POOR MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ABOVE THE SURFACE
RAIN CHANCES ARE ESSENTIALLY ZERO.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AMID
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. A BRIEF AND SMALL SHOWER OVER THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS IS POSSIBLE BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE INHERITED LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST APPEARED REASONABLE AND NO ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE. BROAD 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EXTENDED OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WITH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WAXING AND WANING GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES
AND THE OPPRESSIVE HIGH PERSISTING...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
TO THIS CONTINUES TO BE ON SATURDAY...WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND ALONG THE
BORDER OF THE CRP AND BRO CWFA/S. MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOMING POSSIBLE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
DAYTIME HIGHS...WILL PREVAIL AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LAGUNA MADRE TODAY AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
STEADY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AMID
MODERATE SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL...AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN TOMORROW ON THE LAGUNA
MADRE.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT LIKELY
TO BE NEEDED FOR ANY OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE THURSDAY
DUE TO BREEZIER WINDS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64/64






000
FXUS64 KBRO 270533 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1233 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AROUND 10
KNOTS...AS SOME MIXING FROM ALOFT OCCURS. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE MIDMORNING TO 15
TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS AREAWIDE. A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR AIRPORTS NEAR THE COAST...WHILE INLAND STATION REMAIN CLEAR
THRU 24 HOURS. WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT REMAIN A BIT BREEZY AROUND 15
KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

MARINE...DROPPED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS FOR AFFECTED MARINE
ZONES DUE TO DECREASING NIGHT TIME WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR TAFS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...PROVIDING SYNOPTIC
SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FORCING FOR PERSISTENT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS.
HOWEVER...AS HEATING WANES...BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BECOMING MODERATE OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...A WARM CORE HEAT LOW OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL HELP
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
EVENING. CLOUD STREETS OF FEW TO SCT LOW CU WILL FORM UP ALONG THE
COAST...WITH SOME CLEARING TO FULL SUNNY SKIES OVER THE NORTHEAST
CWA WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...BUT LESS SO OVER THE TAF SITES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA...WHERE MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD
PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ONLY REAL ADJUSTMENT FROM YESTERDAY
BEING STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS...A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 100S BY THE END OF THE DAY IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER VALLEY AND MAY HIT 100 IN PARTS OF THE LOWER VALLEY AS WELL.
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO LOWER 70S ARE KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME STEADY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND WORK TO
KEEP LOW TEMPS MILD...FROM ABOUT 77 TO 81 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
850/700MB MOISTURE AND THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER WILL BE
LIMITED TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LOW CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
FORECAST IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TOMORROW.
ONLY SLIGHT INCREASES TO LAYER THICKNESS VALUES APPEAR IN SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE WITH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT VERY SIMILAR
LEVELS. FORECASTING MAX AND HOURLY TEMPS CLOSE TO BUT JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 108 TO 111 WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WEAKENED BY THESE
SOUTHEASTERLIES AND POOR MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ABOVE THE SURFACE
RAIN CHANCES ARE ESSENTIALLY ZERO.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AMID
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. A BRIEF AND SMALL SHOWER OVER THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS IS POSSIBLE BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE INHERITED LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST APPEARED REASONABLE AND NO ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE. BROAD 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EXTENDED OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WITH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WAXING AND WANING GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES
AND THE OPPRESSIVE HIGH PERSISTING...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
TO THIS CONTINUES TO BE ON SATURDAY...WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND ALONG THE
BORDER OF THE CRP AND BRO CWFA/S. MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOMING POSSIBLE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
DAYTIME HIGHS...WILL PREVAIL AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LAGUNA MADRE TODAY AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
STEADY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AMID
MODERATE SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL...AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN TOMORROW ON THE LAGUNA
MADRE.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT LIKELY
TO BE NEEDED FOR ANY OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE THURSDAY
DUE TO BREEZIER WINDS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64/64







000
FXUS64 KBRO 270321 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1021 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.MARINE...DROPPED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS FOR AFFECTED MARINE
ZONES DUE TO DECREASING NIGHT TIME WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR TAFS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...PROVIDING SYNOPTIC
SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FORCING FOR PERSISTENT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS.
HOWEVER...AS HEATING WANES...BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BECOMING MODERATE OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...A WARM CORE HEAT LOW OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL HELP
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
EVENING. CLOUD STREETS OF FEW TO SCT LOW CU WILL FORM UP ALONG THE
COAST...WITH SOME CLEARING TO FULL SUNNY SKIES OVER THE NORTHEAST
CWA WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...BUT LESS SO OVER THE TAF SITES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA...WHERE MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD
PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ONLY REAL ADJUSTMENT FROM YESTERDAY
BEING STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS...A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 100S BY THE END OF THE DAY IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER VALLEY AND MAY HIT 100 IN PARTS OF THE LOWER VALLEY AS WELL.
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO LOWER 70S ARE KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME STEADY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND WORK TO
KEEP LOW TEMPS MILD...FROM ABOUT 77 TO 81 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
850/700MB MOISTURE AND THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER WILL BE
LIMITED TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LOW CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
FORECAST IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TOMORROW.
ONLY SLIGHT INCREASES TO LAYER THICKNESS VALUES APPEAR IN SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE WITH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT VERY SIMILAR
LEVELS. FORECASTING MAX AND HOURLY TEMPS CLOSE TO BUT JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 108 TO 111 WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WEAKENED BY THESE
SOUTHEASTERLIES AND POOR MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ABOVE THE SURFACE
RAIN CHANCES ARE ESSENTIALLY ZERO.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AMID
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. A BRIEF AND SMALL SHOWER OVER THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS IS POSSIBLE BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE INHERITED LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST APPEARED REASONABLE AND NO ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE. BROAD 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EXTENDED OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WITH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WAXING AND WANING GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES
AND THE OPPRESSIVE HIGH PERSISTING...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
TO THIS CONTINUES TO BE ON SATURDAY...WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND ALONG THE
BORDER OF THE CRP AND BRO CWFA/S. MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOMING POSSIBLE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
DAYTIME HIGHS...WILL PREVAIL AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LAGUNA MADRE TODAY AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
STEADY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AMID
MODERATE SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL...AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN TOMORROW ON THE LAGUNA
MADRE.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT LIKELY
TO BE NEEDED FOR ANY OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE THURSDAY
DUE TO BREEZIER WINDS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/61







000
FXUS64 KBRO 270321 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1021 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.MARINE...DROPPED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS FOR AFFECTED MARINE
ZONES DUE TO DECREASING NIGHT TIME WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR TAFS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...PROVIDING SYNOPTIC
SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FORCING FOR PERSISTENT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS.
HOWEVER...AS HEATING WANES...BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BECOMING MODERATE OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...A WARM CORE HEAT LOW OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL HELP
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
EVENING. CLOUD STREETS OF FEW TO SCT LOW CU WILL FORM UP ALONG THE
COAST...WITH SOME CLEARING TO FULL SUNNY SKIES OVER THE NORTHEAST
CWA WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...BUT LESS SO OVER THE TAF SITES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA...WHERE MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD
PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ONLY REAL ADJUSTMENT FROM YESTERDAY
BEING STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS...A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 100S BY THE END OF THE DAY IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER VALLEY AND MAY HIT 100 IN PARTS OF THE LOWER VALLEY AS WELL.
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO LOWER 70S ARE KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME STEADY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND WORK TO
KEEP LOW TEMPS MILD...FROM ABOUT 77 TO 81 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
850/700MB MOISTURE AND THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER WILL BE
LIMITED TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LOW CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
FORECAST IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TOMORROW.
ONLY SLIGHT INCREASES TO LAYER THICKNESS VALUES APPEAR IN SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE WITH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT VERY SIMILAR
LEVELS. FORECASTING MAX AND HOURLY TEMPS CLOSE TO BUT JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 108 TO 111 WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WEAKENED BY THESE
SOUTHEASTERLIES AND POOR MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ABOVE THE SURFACE
RAIN CHANCES ARE ESSENTIALLY ZERO.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AMID
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. A BRIEF AND SMALL SHOWER OVER THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS IS POSSIBLE BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE INHERITED LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST APPEARED REASONABLE AND NO ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE. BROAD 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EXTENDED OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WITH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WAXING AND WANING GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES
AND THE OPPRESSIVE HIGH PERSISTING...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
TO THIS CONTINUES TO BE ON SATURDAY...WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND ALONG THE
BORDER OF THE CRP AND BRO CWFA/S. MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOMING POSSIBLE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
DAYTIME HIGHS...WILL PREVAIL AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LAGUNA MADRE TODAY AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
STEADY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AMID
MODERATE SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL...AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN TOMORROW ON THE LAGUNA
MADRE.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT LIKELY
TO BE NEEDED FOR ANY OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE THURSDAY
DUE TO BREEZIER WINDS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/61






000
FXUS64 KBRO 262322
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
622 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...PROVIDING SYNOPTIC
SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FORCING FOR PERSISTENT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS.
HOWEVER...AS HEATING WANES...BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BECOMING MODERATE OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...A WARM CORE HEAT LOW OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL HELP
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
EVENING. CLOUD STREETS OF FEW TO SCT LOW CU WILL FORM UP ALONG THE
COAST...WITH SOME CLEARING TO FULL SUNNY SKIES OVER THE NORTHEAST
CWA WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...BUT LESS SO OVER THE TAF SITES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA...WHERE MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ONLY REAL ADJUSTMENT FROM YESTERDAY
BEING STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS...A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 100S BY THE END OF THE DAY IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER VALLEY AND MAY HIT 100 IN PARTS OF THE LOWER VALLEY AS WELL.
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO LOWER 70S ARE KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME STEADY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND WORK TO
KEEP LOW TEMPS MILD...FROM ABOUT 77 TO 81 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
850/700MB MOISTURE AND THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER WILL BE
LIMITED TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LOW CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
FORECAST IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TOMORROW.
ONLY SLIGHT INCREASES TO LAYER THICKNESS VALUES APPEAR IN SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE WITH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT VERY SIMILAR
LEVELS. FORECASTING MAX AND HOURLY TEMPS CLOSE TO BUT JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 108 TO 111 WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WEAKENED BY THESE
SOUTHEASTERLIES AND POOR MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ABOVE THE SURFACE
RAIN CHANCES ARE ESSENTIALLY ZERO.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AMID
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. A BRIEF AND SMALL SHOWER OVER THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS IS POSSIBLE BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE INHERITED LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST APPEARED REASONABLE AND NO ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE. BROAD 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EXTENDED OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WITH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WAXING AND WANING GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES
AND THE OPPRESSIVE HIGH PERSISTING...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
TO THIS CONTINUES TO BE ON SATURDAY...WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND ALONG THE
BORDER OF THE CRP AND BRO CWFA/S. MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOMING POSSIBLE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
DAYTIME HIGHS...WILL PREVAIL AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LAGUNA MADRE TODAY AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
STEADY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AMID
MODERATE SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL...AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN TOMORROW ON THE LAGUNA
MADRE.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT LIKELY
TO BE NEEDED FOR ANY OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE THURSDAY
DUE TO BREEZIER WINDS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ135-155.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/61/58






000
FXUS64 KBRO 262322
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
622 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...PROVIDING SYNOPTIC
SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FORCING FOR PERSISTENT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS.
HOWEVER...AS HEATING WANES...BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BECOMING MODERATE OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...A WARM CORE HEAT LOW OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL HELP
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
EVENING. CLOUD STREETS OF FEW TO SCT LOW CU WILL FORM UP ALONG THE
COAST...WITH SOME CLEARING TO FULL SUNNY SKIES OVER THE NORTHEAST
CWA WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...BUT LESS SO OVER THE TAF SITES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA...WHERE MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ONLY REAL ADJUSTMENT FROM YESTERDAY
BEING STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS...A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 100S BY THE END OF THE DAY IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER VALLEY AND MAY HIT 100 IN PARTS OF THE LOWER VALLEY AS WELL.
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO LOWER 70S ARE KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME STEADY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND WORK TO
KEEP LOW TEMPS MILD...FROM ABOUT 77 TO 81 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
850/700MB MOISTURE AND THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER WILL BE
LIMITED TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LOW CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
FORECAST IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TOMORROW.
ONLY SLIGHT INCREASES TO LAYER THICKNESS VALUES APPEAR IN SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE WITH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT VERY SIMILAR
LEVELS. FORECASTING MAX AND HOURLY TEMPS CLOSE TO BUT JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 108 TO 111 WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WEAKENED BY THESE
SOUTHEASTERLIES AND POOR MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ABOVE THE SURFACE
RAIN CHANCES ARE ESSENTIALLY ZERO.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AMID
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. A BRIEF AND SMALL SHOWER OVER THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS IS POSSIBLE BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE INHERITED LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST APPEARED REASONABLE AND NO ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE. BROAD 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EXTENDED OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WITH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WAXING AND WANING GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES
AND THE OPPRESSIVE HIGH PERSISTING...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
TO THIS CONTINUES TO BE ON SATURDAY...WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND ALONG THE
BORDER OF THE CRP AND BRO CWFA/S. MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOMING POSSIBLE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
DAYTIME HIGHS...WILL PREVAIL AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LAGUNA MADRE TODAY AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
STEADY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AMID
MODERATE SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL...AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN TOMORROW ON THE LAGUNA
MADRE.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT LIKELY
TO BE NEEDED FOR ANY OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE THURSDAY
DUE TO BREEZIER WINDS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ135-155.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/61/58







000
FXUS64 KBRO 261917
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
217 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ONLY REAL ADJUSTMENT FROM YESTERDAY
BEING STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS...A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 100S BY THE END OF THE DAY IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER VALLEY AND MAY HIT 100 IN PARTS OF THE LOWER VALLEY AS WELL.
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO LOWER 70S ARE KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME STEADY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND WORK TO
KEEP LOW TEMPS MILD...FROM ABOUT 77 TO 81 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
850/700MB MOISTURE AND THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER WILL BE
LIMITED TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LOW CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
FORECAST IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TOMORROW.
ONLY SLIGHT INCREASES TO LAYER THICKNESS VALUES APPEAR IN SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE WITH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT VERY SIMILAR
LEVELS. FORECASTING MAX AND HOURLY TEMPS CLOSE TO BUT JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 108 TO 111 WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE WEAKENED BY THESE
SOUTHEASTERLIES AND POOR MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ABOVE THE SURFACE
RAIN CHANCES ARE ESSENTIALLY ZERO.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AMID
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. A BRIEF AND SMALL SHOWER OVER THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS IS POSSIBLE BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE INHERITED LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST APPEARED REASONABLE AND NO ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE. BROAD 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EXTENDED OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WITH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WAXING AND WANING GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES
AND THE OPPRESSIVE HIGH PERSISTING...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
TO THIS CONTINUES TO BE ON SATURDAY...WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND ALONG THE
BORDER OF THE CRP AND BRO CWFA/S. MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOMING POSSIBLE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
DAYTIME HIGHS...WILL PREVAIL AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LAGUNA MADRE TODAY AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
STEADY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AMID
MODERATE SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL...AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN TOMORROW ON THE LAGUNA
MADRE.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT LIKELY
TO BE NEEDED FOR ANY OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE THURSDAY
DUE TO BREEZIER WINDS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  97  80  94 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          79  98  78  95 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            78 101  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              79 102  79 101 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 104  79 101 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  93  80  91 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...GIBBS-68
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
WX4PPT/MESO...BILLINGS-58





000
FXUS64 KBRO 261917
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
217 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ONLY REAL ADJUSTMENT FROM YESTERDAY
BEING STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS...A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 100S BY THE END OF THE DAY IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER VALLEY AND MAY HIT 100 IN PARTS OF THE LOWER VALLEY AS WELL.
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO LOWER 70S ARE KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME STEADY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND WORK TO
KEEP LOW TEMPS MILD...FROM ABOUT 77 TO 81 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
850/700MB MOISTURE AND THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER WILL BE
LIMITED TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LOW CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
FORECAST IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TOMORROW.
ONLY SLIGHT INCREASES TO LAYER THICKNESS VALUES APPEAR IN SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE WITH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT VERY SIMILAR
LEVELS. FORECASTING MAX AND HOURLY TEMPS CLOSE TO BUT JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 108 TO 111 WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE WEAKENED BY THESE
SOUTHEASTERLIES AND POOR MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ABOVE THE SURFACE
RAIN CHANCES ARE ESSENTIALLY ZERO.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AMID
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. A BRIEF AND SMALL SHOWER OVER THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS IS POSSIBLE BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE INHERITED LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST APPEARED REASONABLE AND NO ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE. BROAD 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EXTENDED OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WITH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WAXING AND WANING GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES
AND THE OPPRESSIVE HIGH PERSISTING...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
TO THIS CONTINUES TO BE ON SATURDAY...WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND ALONG THE
BORDER OF THE CRP AND BRO CWFA/S. MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOMING POSSIBLE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
DAYTIME HIGHS...WILL PREVAIL AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LAGUNA MADRE TODAY AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
STEADY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AMID
MODERATE SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL...AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN TOMORROW ON THE LAGUNA
MADRE.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT LIKELY
TO BE NEEDED FOR ANY OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE THURSDAY
DUE TO BREEZIER WINDS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  97  80  94 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          79  98  78  95 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            78 101  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              79 102  79 101 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 104  79 101 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  93  80  91 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...GIBBS-68
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
WX4PPT/MESO...BILLINGS-58






000
FXUS64 KBRO 261726 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1226 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE AT ABOUT
CURRENT LEVELS THROUGH 7 PM WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL LOWER AND BECOME MORE STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. INTERMITTENT SCT
TO BRIEFLY BROKEN CLOUD AT AROUND 2500 FT IS POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE
BUT PREVAILING VFR IS FORECAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
ON SUNDAY ON PAR WITH TODAYS DIRECTION AND SPEED. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL PROVIDING LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH JUST A FEW AFTERNOON
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. MORNING BALLOON SOUNDING INDICATES SOUTH WINDS
OF 25-30 KNOTS AT 3 TO 5K FEET. SOME OF THESE HIGHER WINDS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LARGE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
TEXAS AND EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA TO ARKANSAS TO REMAIN WELL ANCHORED
THIS WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOWER MEAN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO RESULT IN A VERY HOT AND
DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.  THE SHEAR AXIS THAT BROUGHT A FEW
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS PRETTY MUCH DAMPENED
OUT AS IT TRACKS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THEN NORMAL TO RESULT IN MAX
TEMPERATURES 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TAKES THE RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 90S JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST TO 103-107 ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR
LOWER DAYTIME DEW POINTS KEEPING THE HEAT INDICES FROM EXCEEDING
HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.

BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF AND COMBINES WITH THE INTENSE THERMAL LOW OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO. 20-30 KNOTS BETWEEN 925-850MB TO KEEP SURFACE
WINDS AT LEAST 15-25 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY 20-30 MPH BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THE GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER
NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP THE SKIES RATHER HAZY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
VALLEY WITH SMOKE FROM THE MATAMOROS LANDFILL BEING DIRECTED
NORTHWARD AND SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES BEING DIRECTED SOUTHWARD
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. EPA`S AIR QUALITY INDEX FOR OUR REGION IS IN
THE MODERATE RANGE WHICH OVERALL DOES NOT POSE ANY HEALTH RISK
EXCEPT FOR PEOPLE WHO ARE USUALLY SENSITIVE TO OZONE AND HAVE
RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...GENERAL PATTERN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK INVOLVES THE DOMINANT H5 RIDGE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EACH DAY...WITH NO CHANCES FOR RAIN.
PW VALUES NOTED IN GFS AND NAM FALL BELOW 1.25 INCHES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
IN ESSENCE...THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ONE CLOUD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LONGER TERM FORECAST HINGES ON H5 TROUGH TO
THE EAST FORCING THE RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLE COLD FRONT TO DIVE INTO TEXAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MODELS DO NOT YET BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
UNTIL NEXT SATURDAY...SO HAVE HELD OFF ON UPGRADING POPS FOR
FRIDAY. POPS FOR NEXT SATURDAY HAVE BEEN UPPED TO 20 PERCENT WITH
THE SFC BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE OF A THREAT AND THE SEABREEZE
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS STRENGTHENED
OVERNIGHT AND LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MORE WESTWARD COMBINING WITH A THERMAL LOW
OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO TO MAINTAIN THE STRONGER AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS. STRONGER WINDS OVER THE LAGUNA DURING THE DAY WITH
THE STRONGER WINDS TRANSITIONING OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. WINDS COULD
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT A LONG DURATION IS  NOT
ANTICIPATED SO NO ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEAS TO
SLOWLY RESPOND SINCE THEY ARE STARTING OUT SO LOW. A MODERATE SEA TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE AREA REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN
SUMMERTIME SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF AND HEAT LOW ACROSS FAR WEST
TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE MORE ELEVATED DURING THE DAY...AS THE HEAT
LOW ABATES CUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DAYTIME WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS EACH DAY...LOWERING TO 5 TO
10 OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE EQUALLY AFFECTED BY A LONG FETCH ACROSS
THE GULF. THIS WILL KICK SEAS UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LIGHTER WINDS AFTER FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK...ALLOWING SEAS TO
RELAX TO 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/66







000
FXUS64 KBRO 261146 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
646 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL PROVIDING LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH JUST A FEW AFTERNOON
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. MORNING BALLOON SOUNDING INDICATES SOUTH WINDS
OF 25-30 KNOTS AT 3 TO 5K FEET. SOME OF THESE HIGHER WINDS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LARGE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
TEXAS AND EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA TO ARKANSAS TO REMAIN WELL ANCHORED
THIS WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOWER MEAN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO RESULT IN A VERY HOT AND
DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.  THE SHEAR AXIS THAT BROUGHT A FEW
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS PRETTY MUCH DAMPENED
OUT AS IT TRACKS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THEN NORMAL TO RESULT IN MAX
TEMPERATURES 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TAKES THE RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 90S JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST TO 103-107 ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR
LOWER DAYTIME DEW POINTS KEEPING THE HEAT INDICES FROM EXCEEDING
HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.

BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF AND COMBINES WITH THE INTENSE THERMAL LOW OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO. 20-30 KNOTS BETWEEN 925-850MB TO KEEP SURFACE
WINDS AT LEAST 15-25 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY 20-30 MPH BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THE GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER
NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP THE SKIES RATHER HAZY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
VALLEY WITH SMOKE FROM THE MATAMOROS LANDFILL BEING DIRECTED
NORTHWARD AND SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES BEING DIRECTED SOUTHWARD
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. EPA`S AIR QUALITY INDEX FOR OUR REGION IS IN
THE MODERATE RANGE WHICH OVERALL DOES NOT POSE ANY HEALTH RISK
EXCEPT FOR PEOPLE WHO ARE USUALLY SENSITIVE TO OZONE AND HAVE
RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...GENERAL PATTERN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK INVOLVES THE DOMINANT H5 RIDGE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EACH DAY...WITH NO CHANCES FOR RAIN.
PW VALUES NOTED IN GFS AND NAM FALL BELOW 1.25 INCHES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
IN ESSENCE...THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ONE CLOUD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LONGER TERM FORECAST HINGES ON H5 TROUGH TO
THE EAST FORCING THE RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLE COLD FRONT TO DIVE INTO TEXAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MODELS DO NOT YET BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
UNTIL NEXT SATURDAY...SO HAVE HELD OFF ON UPGRADING POPS FOR
FRIDAY. POPS FOR NEXT SATURDAY HAVE BEEN UPPED TO 20 PERCENT WITH
THE SFC BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE OF A THREAT AND THE SEABREEZE
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS STRENGTHENED
OVERNIGHT AND LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MORE WESTWARD COMBINING WITH A THERMAL LOW
OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO TO MAINTAIN THE STRONGER AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS. STRONGER WINDS OVER THE LAGUNA DURING THE DAY WITH
THE STRONGER WINDS TRANSITIONING OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. WINDS COULD
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT A LONG DURATION IS  NOT
ANTICIPATED SO NO ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEAS TO
SLOWLY RESPOND SINCE THEY ARE STARTING OUT SO LOW. A MODERATE SEA TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE AREA REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN
SUMMERTIME SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF AND HEAT LOW ACROSS FAR WEST
TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE MORE ELEVATED DURING THE DAY...AS THE HEAT
LOW ABATES CUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DAYTIME WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS EACH DAY...LOWERING TO 5 TO
10 OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE EQUALLY AFFECTED BY A LONG FETCH ACROSS
THE GULF. THIS WILL KICK SEAS UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LIGHTER WINDS AFTER FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK...ALLOWING SEAS TO
RELAX TO 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  97  81  97  79 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          98  79  98  78 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN           101  77 101  77 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN             102  79 101  78 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     103  79 103  78 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   93  81  93  79 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...SHORT TERM/AVIATION
64...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KBRO 261146 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
646 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL PROVIDING LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH JUST A FEW AFTERNOON
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. MORNING BALLOON SOUNDING INDICATES SOUTH WINDS
OF 25-30 KNOTS AT 3 TO 5K FEET. SOME OF THESE HIGHER WINDS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LARGE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
TEXAS AND EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA TO ARKANSAS TO REMAIN WELL ANCHORED
THIS WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOWER MEAN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO RESULT IN A VERY HOT AND
DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.  THE SHEAR AXIS THAT BROUGHT A FEW
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS PRETTY MUCH DAMPENED
OUT AS IT TRACKS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THEN NORMAL TO RESULT IN MAX
TEMPERATURES 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TAKES THE RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 90S JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST TO 103-107 ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR
LOWER DAYTIME DEW POINTS KEEPING THE HEAT INDICES FROM EXCEEDING
HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.

BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF AND COMBINES WITH THE INTENSE THERMAL LOW OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO. 20-30 KNOTS BETWEEN 925-850MB TO KEEP SURFACE
WINDS AT LEAST 15-25 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY 20-30 MPH BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THE GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER
NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP THE SKIES RATHER HAZY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
VALLEY WITH SMOKE FROM THE MATAMOROS LANDFILL BEING DIRECTED
NORTHWARD AND SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES BEING DIRECTED SOUTHWARD
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. EPA`S AIR QUALITY INDEX FOR OUR REGION IS IN
THE MODERATE RANGE WHICH OVERALL DOES NOT POSE ANY HEALTH RISK
EXCEPT FOR PEOPLE WHO ARE USUALLY SENSITIVE TO OZONE AND HAVE
RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...GENERAL PATTERN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK INVOLVES THE DOMINANT H5 RIDGE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EACH DAY...WITH NO CHANCES FOR RAIN.
PW VALUES NOTED IN GFS AND NAM FALL BELOW 1.25 INCHES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
IN ESSENCE...THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ONE CLOUD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LONGER TERM FORECAST HINGES ON H5 TROUGH TO
THE EAST FORCING THE RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLE COLD FRONT TO DIVE INTO TEXAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MODELS DO NOT YET BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
UNTIL NEXT SATURDAY...SO HAVE HELD OFF ON UPGRADING POPS FOR
FRIDAY. POPS FOR NEXT SATURDAY HAVE BEEN UPPED TO 20 PERCENT WITH
THE SFC BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE OF A THREAT AND THE SEABREEZE
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS STRENGTHENED
OVERNIGHT AND LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MORE WESTWARD COMBINING WITH A THERMAL LOW
OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO TO MAINTAIN THE STRONGER AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS. STRONGER WINDS OVER THE LAGUNA DURING THE DAY WITH
THE STRONGER WINDS TRANSITIONING OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. WINDS COULD
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT A LONG DURATION IS  NOT
ANTICIPATED SO NO ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEAS TO
SLOWLY RESPOND SINCE THEY ARE STARTING OUT SO LOW. A MODERATE SEA TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE AREA REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN
SUMMERTIME SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF AND HEAT LOW ACROSS FAR WEST
TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE MORE ELEVATED DURING THE DAY...AS THE HEAT
LOW ABATES CUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DAYTIME WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS EACH DAY...LOWERING TO 5 TO
10 OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE EQUALLY AFFECTED BY A LONG FETCH ACROSS
THE GULF. THIS WILL KICK SEAS UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LIGHTER WINDS AFTER FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK...ALLOWING SEAS TO
RELAX TO 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  97  81  97  79 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          98  79  98  78 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN           101  77 101  77 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN             102  79 101  78 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     103  79 103  78 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   93  81  93  79 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...SHORT TERM/AVIATION
64...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KBRO 260912
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
412 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LARGE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
TEXAS AND EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA TO ARKANSAS TO REMAIN WELL ANCHORED
THIS WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOWER MEAN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO RESULT IN A VERY HOT AND
DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.  THE SHEAR AXIS THAT BROUGHT A FEW
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS PRETTY MUCH DAMPENED
OUT AS IT TRACKS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THEN NORMAL TO RESULT IN MAX
TEMPERATURES 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TAKES THE RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 90S JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST TO 103-107 ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR
LOWER DAYTIME DEW POINTS KEEPING THE HEAT INDICES FROM EXCEEDING
HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.

BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF AND COMBINES WITH THE INTENSE THERMAL LOW OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO. 20-30 KNOTS BETWEEN 925-850MB TO KEEP SURFACE
WINDS AT LEAST 15-25 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY 20-30 MPH BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THE GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER
NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP THE SKIES RATHER HAZY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
VALLEY WITH SMOKE FROM THE MATAMOROS LANDFILL BEING DIRECTED
NORTHWARD AND SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES BEING DIRECTED SOUTHWARD
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. EPA`S AIR QUALITY INDEX FOR OUR REGION IS IN
THE MODERATE RANGE WHICH OVERALL DOES NOT POSE ANY HEALTH RISK
EXCEPT FOR PEOPLE WHO ARE USUALLY SENSITIVE TO OZONE AND HAVE
RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...GENERAL PATTERN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK INVOLVES THE DOMINANT H5 RIDGE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EACH DAY...WITH NO CHANCES FOR RAIN.
PW VALUES NOTED IN GFS AND NAM FALL BELOW 1.25 INCHES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
IN ESSENCE...THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ONE CLOUD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LONGER TERM FORECAST HINGES ON H5 TROUGH TO
THE EAST FORCING THE RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLE COLD FRONT TO DIVE INTO TEXAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MODELS DO NOT YET BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
UNTIL NEXT SATURDAY...SO HAVE HELD OFF ON UPGRADING POPS FOR
FRIDAY. POPS FOR NEXT SATURDAY HAVE BEEN UPPED TO 20 PERCENT WITH
THE SFC BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE OF A THREAT AND THE SEABREEZE
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS STRENGTHENED
OVERNIGHT AND LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MORE WESTWARD COMBINING WITH A THERMAL LOW
OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO TO MAINTAIN THE STRONGER AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS. STRONGER WINDS OVER THE LAGUNA DURING THE DAY WITH
THE STRONGER WINDS TRANSITIONING OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. WINDS COULD
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT A LONG DURATION IS  NOT
ANTICIPATED SO NO ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEAS TO
SLOWLY RESPOND SINCE THEY ARE STARTING OUT SO LOW. A MODERATE SEA TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE AREA REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN
SUMMERTIME SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF AND HEAT LOW ACROSS FAR WEST
TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE MORE ELEVATED DURING THE DAY...AS THE HEAT
LOW ABATES CUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DAYTIME WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS EACH DAY...LOWERING TO 5 TO
10 OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE EQUALLY AFFECTED BY A LONG FETCH ACROSS
THE GULF. THIS WILL KICK SEAS UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LIGHTER WINDS AFTER FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK...ALLOWING SEAS TO
RELAX TO 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  97  81  97  79 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          98  79  98  78 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN           101  77 101  77 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN             102  79 101  78 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     103  79 103  78 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   93  81  93  79 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

59/64






000
FXUS64 KBRO 260912
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
412 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LARGE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
TEXAS AND EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA TO ARKANSAS TO REMAIN WELL ANCHORED
THIS WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOWER MEAN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO RESULT IN A VERY HOT AND
DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.  THE SHEAR AXIS THAT BROUGHT A FEW
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS PRETTY MUCH DAMPENED
OUT AS IT TRACKS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THEN NORMAL TO RESULT IN MAX
TEMPERATURES 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TAKES THE RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 90S JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST TO 103-107 ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR
LOWER DAYTIME DEW POINTS KEEPING THE HEAT INDICES FROM EXCEEDING
HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.

BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF AND COMBINES WITH THE INTENSE THERMAL LOW OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO. 20-30 KNOTS BETWEEN 925-850MB TO KEEP SURFACE
WINDS AT LEAST 15-25 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY 20-30 MPH BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THE GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER
NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP THE SKIES RATHER HAZY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
VALLEY WITH SMOKE FROM THE MATAMOROS LANDFILL BEING DIRECTED
NORTHWARD AND SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES BEING DIRECTED SOUTHWARD
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. EPA`S AIR QUALITY INDEX FOR OUR REGION IS IN
THE MODERATE RANGE WHICH OVERALL DOES NOT POSE ANY HEALTH RISK
EXCEPT FOR PEOPLE WHO ARE USUALLY SENSITIVE TO OZONE AND HAVE
RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...GENERAL PATTERN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK INVOLVES THE DOMINANT H5 RIDGE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EACH DAY...WITH NO CHANCES FOR RAIN.
PW VALUES NOTED IN GFS AND NAM FALL BELOW 1.25 INCHES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
IN ESSENCE...THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ONE CLOUD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LONGER TERM FORECAST HINGES ON H5 TROUGH TO
THE EAST FORCING THE RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLE COLD FRONT TO DIVE INTO TEXAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MODELS DO NOT YET BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
UNTIL NEXT SATURDAY...SO HAVE HELD OFF ON UPGRADING POPS FOR
FRIDAY. POPS FOR NEXT SATURDAY HAVE BEEN UPPED TO 20 PERCENT WITH
THE SFC BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE OF A THREAT AND THE SEABREEZE
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS STRENGTHENED
OVERNIGHT AND LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MORE WESTWARD COMBINING WITH A THERMAL LOW
OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO TO MAINTAIN THE STRONGER AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS. STRONGER WINDS OVER THE LAGUNA DURING THE DAY WITH
THE STRONGER WINDS TRANSITIONING OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. WINDS COULD
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT A LONG DURATION IS  NOT
ANTICIPATED SO NO ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEAS TO
SLOWLY RESPOND SINCE THEY ARE STARTING OUT SO LOW. A MODERATE SEA TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE AREA REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN
SUMMERTIME SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF AND HEAT LOW ACROSS FAR WEST
TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE MORE ELEVATED DURING THE DAY...AS THE HEAT
LOW ABATES CUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DAYTIME WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS EACH DAY...LOWERING TO 5 TO
10 OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE EQUALLY AFFECTED BY A LONG FETCH ACROSS
THE GULF. THIS WILL KICK SEAS UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LIGHTER WINDS AFTER FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK...ALLOWING SEAS TO
RELAX TO 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  97  81  97  79 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          98  79  98  78 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN           101  77 101  77 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN             102  79 101  78 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     103  79 103  78 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   93  81  93  79 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

59/64







000
FXUS64 KBRO 260536 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1236 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN TEXAS TO PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. THIS SUBSIDENCE
AND A LACK OF MOISTURE TO LIMIT CUMULUS BUILD UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND ALL DAY
SATURDAY. MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PROVIDE STRONGER SOUTHEAST
WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS...SHEAR AXIS...OVERHEAD WILL
FILL/MOVE WEST TONIGHT LEAVING A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA UNDER RIDGING
ALOFT...PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WEST TX WILL DICTATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS ON SATURDAY. MDT TO BREEZY AND GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING TO EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CLOUD
STREETS OF LOW CU WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...
AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A WESTWARD-MOVING SEA BREEZE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP BETWEEN THE IH-69C/US-281 AND IH-69E/US-77 CORRIDORS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MESOSCALE FORCING FROM THE SEA BREEZE INTERACTS WITH
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS.

AND WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM LINGERING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
CONVECTION LARGELY DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.  FOR THIS REASON...
FORECAST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR
THIS EVENING.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ON OUR WEATHER WILL WANE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING RIDGING TO REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  A NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT...CIRCULATING AROUND THE
RIDGE`S CENTER (IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE)...WILL DRY OUT OUR BOUNDARY
LAYER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.  WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING AND A DRIER AIR MASS
OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY REMAIN STATUS QUO FOR LATE JULY.
LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
ABOUT 100 WEST OF IH-69C/US-281.

THANKS TO WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS THIS
AFTERNOON.  /BUTTS/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED OR
MADE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. BROAD 500 MB HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND FIRMLY
EXTENDED OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES WILL LINGER NEAR
1.5 INCHES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT COULD FALL TO NEAR 1
INCH TOWARDS THE END. NO PRECIPITATION WAS INHERITED FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...AND THIS TREND WAS MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST
CYCLE DUE TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE COMBINING WITH THE 500 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO
INHERITED...AND KEPT...ALTHOUGH SOME ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE TO
INCREASE THEM ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY DAYTIME HIGHS...
DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND A DRYING ATMOSPHERE.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE MARINE AREA HEADING INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING INCREASED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS TO BE SEEN BY SATURDAY. EVEN WITH THE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS...WAVE AND WIND CRITERIA SHOULD REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE
CAUTION THRESHOLDS INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN MORE ISOLATED THAN THIS MORNING. AS
SUCH...PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL
REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT DURING THE SHORT TERM. /BUTTS/

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ON THE LAGUNA MADRE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RESULT OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE
NEEDED FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KBRO 260536 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1236 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN TEXAS TO PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. THIS SUBSIDENCE
AND A LACK OF MOISTURE TO LIMIT CUMULUS BUILD UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND ALL DAY
SATURDAY. MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PROVIDE STRONGER SOUTHEAST
WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS...SHEAR AXIS...OVERHEAD WILL
FILL/MOVE WEST TONIGHT LEAVING A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA UNDER RIDGING
ALOFT...PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WEST TX WILL DICTATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS ON SATURDAY. MDT TO BREEZY AND GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING TO EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CLOUD
STREETS OF LOW CU WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...
AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A WESTWARD-MOVING SEA BREEZE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP BETWEEN THE IH-69C/US-281 AND IH-69E/US-77 CORRIDORS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MESOSCALE FORCING FROM THE SEA BREEZE INTERACTS WITH
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS.

AND WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM LINGERING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
CONVECTION LARGELY DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.  FOR THIS REASON...
FORECAST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR
THIS EVENING.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ON OUR WEATHER WILL WANE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING RIDGING TO REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  A NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT...CIRCULATING AROUND THE
RIDGE`S CENTER (IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE)...WILL DRY OUT OUR BOUNDARY
LAYER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.  WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING AND A DRIER AIR MASS
OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY REMAIN STATUS QUO FOR LATE JULY.
LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
ABOUT 100 WEST OF IH-69C/US-281.

THANKS TO WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS THIS
AFTERNOON.  /BUTTS/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED OR
MADE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. BROAD 500 MB HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND FIRMLY
EXTENDED OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES WILL LINGER NEAR
1.5 INCHES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT COULD FALL TO NEAR 1
INCH TOWARDS THE END. NO PRECIPITATION WAS INHERITED FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...AND THIS TREND WAS MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST
CYCLE DUE TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE COMBINING WITH THE 500 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO
INHERITED...AND KEPT...ALTHOUGH SOME ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE TO
INCREASE THEM ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY DAYTIME HIGHS...
DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND A DRYING ATMOSPHERE.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE MARINE AREA HEADING INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING INCREASED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS TO BE SEEN BY SATURDAY. EVEN WITH THE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS...WAVE AND WIND CRITERIA SHOULD REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE
CAUTION THRESHOLDS INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN MORE ISOLATED THAN THIS MORNING. AS
SUCH...PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL
REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT DURING THE SHORT TERM. /BUTTS/

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ON THE LAGUNA MADRE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RESULT OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE
NEEDED FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KBRO 252346 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
646 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS...SHEAR AXIS...OVERHEAD WILL
FILL/MOVE WEST TONIGHT LEAVING A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA UNDER RIDGING
ALOFT...PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WEST TX WILL DICTATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS ON SATURDAY. MDT TO BREEZY AND GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING TO EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CLOUD
STREETS OF LOW CU WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...
AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A WESTWARD-MOVING SEA BREEZE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP BETWEEN THE IH-69C/US-281 AND IH-69E/US-77 CORRIDORS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MESOSCALE FORCING FROM THE SEA BREEZE INTERACTS WITH
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS.

AND WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM LINGERING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
CONVECTION LARGELY DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.  FOR THIS REASON...
FORECAST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR
THIS EVENING.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ON OUR WEATHER WILL WANE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING RIDGING TO REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  A NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT...CIRCULATING AROUND THE
RIDGE`S CENTER (IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE)...WILL DRY OUT OUR BOUNDARY
LAYER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.  WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING AND A DRIER AIR MASS
OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY REMAIN STATUS QUO FOR LATE JULY.
LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
ABOUT 100 WEST OF IH-69C/US-281.

THANKS TO WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS THIS
AFTERNOON.  /BUTTS/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED OR
MADE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. BROAD 500 MB HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND FIRMLY
EXTENDED OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES WILL LINGER NEAR
1.5 INCHES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT COULD FALL TO NEAR 1
INCH TOWARDS THE END. NO PRECIPITATION WAS INHERITED FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...AND THIS TREND WAS MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST
CYCLE DUE TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE COMBINING WITH THE 500 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO
INHERITED...AND KEPT...ALTHOUGH SOME ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE TO
INCREASE THEM ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY DAYTIME HIGHS...
DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND A DRYING ATMOSPHERE.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE MARINE AREA HEADING INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING INCREASED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS TO BE SEEN BY SATURDAY. EVEN WITH THE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS...WAVE AND WIND CRITERIA SHOULD REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE
CAUTION THRESHOLDS INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN MORE ISOLATED THAN THIS MORNING. AS
SUCH...PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL
REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT DURING THE SHORT TERM. /BUTTS/

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ON THE LAGUNA MADRE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RESULT OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE
NEEDED FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/63/MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 252346 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
646 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS...SHEAR AXIS...OVERHEAD WILL
FILL/MOVE WEST TONIGHT LEAVING A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA UNDER RIDGING
ALOFT...PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WEST TX WILL DICTATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS ON SATURDAY. MDT TO BREEZY AND GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING TO EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CLOUD
STREETS OF LOW CU WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...
AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A WESTWARD-MOVING SEA BREEZE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP BETWEEN THE IH-69C/US-281 AND IH-69E/US-77 CORRIDORS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MESOSCALE FORCING FROM THE SEA BREEZE INTERACTS WITH
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS.

AND WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM LINGERING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
CONVECTION LARGELY DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.  FOR THIS REASON...
FORECAST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR
THIS EVENING.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ON OUR WEATHER WILL WANE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING RIDGING TO REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  A NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT...CIRCULATING AROUND THE
RIDGE`S CENTER (IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE)...WILL DRY OUT OUR BOUNDARY
LAYER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.  WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING AND A DRIER AIR MASS
OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY REMAIN STATUS QUO FOR LATE JULY.
LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
ABOUT 100 WEST OF IH-69C/US-281.

THANKS TO WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS THIS
AFTERNOON.  /BUTTS/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED OR
MADE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. BROAD 500 MB HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND FIRMLY
EXTENDED OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES WILL LINGER NEAR
1.5 INCHES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT COULD FALL TO NEAR 1
INCH TOWARDS THE END. NO PRECIPITATION WAS INHERITED FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...AND THIS TREND WAS MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST
CYCLE DUE TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE COMBINING WITH THE 500 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO
INHERITED...AND KEPT...ALTHOUGH SOME ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE TO
INCREASE THEM ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY DAYTIME HIGHS...
DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND A DRYING ATMOSPHERE.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE MARINE AREA HEADING INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING INCREASED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS TO BE SEEN BY SATURDAY. EVEN WITH THE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS...WAVE AND WIND CRITERIA SHOULD REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE
CAUTION THRESHOLDS INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN MORE ISOLATED THAN THIS MORNING. AS
SUCH...PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL
REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT DURING THE SHORT TERM. /BUTTS/

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ON THE LAGUNA MADRE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RESULT OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE
NEEDED FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/63/MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 251949
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
249 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...
AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A WESTWARD-MOVING SEABREEZE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP BETWEEN THE IH-69C/US-281 AND IH-69E/US-77 CORRIDORS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MESOSCALE FORCING FROM THE SEABREEZE INTERACTS WITH
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS.

AND WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM LINGERING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
CONVECTION LARGELY DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.  FOR THIS REASON...
FORECAST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR
THIS EVENING.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ON OUR WEATHER WILL WANE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING RIDGING TO REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  A NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT...CIRCULATING AROUND THE
RIDGE`S CENTER (IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE)...WILL DRY OUT OUR BOUNDARY
LAYER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.  WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING AND A DRIER AIRMASS
OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY REMAIN STATUS QUO FOR LATE JULY.
LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
ABOUT 100 WEST OF IH-69C/US-281.

THANKS TO WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS THIS
AFTERNOON.  /BUTTS/

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED OR
MADE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. BROAD 500 MB HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND FIRMLY
EXTENDED OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES WILL LINGER NEAR
1.5 INCHES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT COULD FALL TO NEAR 1
INCH TOWARDS THE END. NO PRECIPITATION WAS INHERITED FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...AND THIS TREND WAS MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST
CYCLE DUE TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE COMBINING WITH THE 500 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO
INHERITED...AND KEPT...ALTHOUGH SOME ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE TO
INCREASE THEM ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY DAYTIME HIGHS...
DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND A DRYING ATMOSPHERE.
&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE MARINE AREA HEADING INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING INCREASED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS TO BE SEEN BY SATURDAY. EVEN WITH THE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS...WAVE AND WIND CRITERIA SHOULD REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE
CAUTION THRESHOLDS INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN MORE ISOLATED THAN THIS MORNING. AS
SUCH...PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL
REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT DURING THE SHORT TERM. /BUTTS/

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ON THE LAGUNA MADRE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RESULT OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE
NEEDED FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  95  80  94 /  10  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          78  97  79  94 /  10  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            76 100  79  97 /  10  10  10   0
MCALLEN              78 100  79  99 /  10  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 102  78  99 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  91  81  90 /  20  20  10   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...BUTTS-53
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
WX4PPT/MESO...MARTINEZ





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities