Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KBRO 192343 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
643 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...DIMINISHING WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS NEARLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. BREEZY WINDS WILL RESUME ON
WEDNESDAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THIS LOW WILL ENHANCE A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR...SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW LOW ACTIVITY WITH THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE. ALSO...THE LATEST KBRO 12Z SOUNDING AND THE TPW PERCENT
OF NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO 83 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA AND THE GULF WATERS WHICH IS WAS LIMITING MOST OF THE CONVECTION
TODAY. GFS/NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION INITIATING
TONIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING WESTWARD AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE 1000 TO 500 MB RH VALUES
STILL SHOW UP TO 65 PERCENT OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL FAVOR FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN LIMIT SEABREEZE
FORMATION. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO STREAMER-TYPE SHOWERS
RACING NORTHWARD...SIMILAR TO RAIN FROM YESTERDAY. HAVE BACK OFF ON
CHANCE POPS FOR THE REGION...SETTLING FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. RAIN CHANCE
WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT BUT A FEW SHOWERS ONLY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS ZONES.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDIER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STILL SOME SHOWER CHANCES AS MAIN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES NORTH BUT NO REAL SOLID SIGNALS YET.

THURSDAYS PRIMARY IMPACT LOOKS TO BE WIND. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
GFS/ECMWF/NAM ON POSITION OF MAIN 500MB RIDGE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI/EASTERN LOUISIANA THAT KEEPS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING IN
PLACE OVER THE GULF. WEAK LEE AND THERMAL TROUGHING TO THE WEST WILL
WORK WITH THIS RIDGING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY AREA
WIDE. BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE 20 TO
25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH. GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUGGEST DRY WEATHER WITH CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN
BUT ECMWF/GFS BOTH HOLD ON TO FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER BASICALLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA OWING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
OUTFLOW/GRAVITY WAVES GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SIMILARLY TO
WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM AMID
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS NEAR 100 EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND AROUND 105 INLAND.

STRONGER CONVERGENCE ALOFT IN CONCERT WITH DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES FURTHER DRIES THE COLUMN ON FRIDAY. SYNOPTIC PATTERN
IS LITTLE CHANGED SUGGESTING ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH AMID HOT TEMPERATURES. CONVECTION IS MUCH
LESS ACTIVE IN THE WESTERN GULF WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE HAVING PUSHED
INLAND.  KEPT THE FORECAST DRY CONSIDERING ALL THIS.

SATURDAY MID LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES A LITTLE WEAKER WITH 591DM 500MB
HEIGHT LINE RETREATING TO THE COASTAL BEND. 850-700MB RH VALUES
BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT AND REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE DURING THE NIGHT.
GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUCH THAT IT WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY...TOO
BREEZY FOR A STRONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT NOT QUITE AS WINDY AS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SUNDAY SOUTHEASTERN US RIDGING WEAKENS FURTHER AND AN EASTERLY WAVE
APPEARS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. GFS/ECMWF IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF LAYER MOISTURE INCREASING QUITE A BIT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WEAK ENOUGH TO BE MARGINAL FOR SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT. INCREASED THE AREA COVERED BY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO COVER MOST OF THE VALLEY AND
INCREASED MOST OF CAMERON AND CENTRAL WILLACY COUNTY TO 25 TO 30 PCT
CHANCES WHICH IS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

RIDGING REDEVELOPS BUT STAYS CENTERED FURTHER NORTH ON MONDAY...WITH
THE GFS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH ON MONDAY. CONTINUED
THIS IDEA ON TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCE WILL DEFINITELY BE CONDITIONAL
WITH COVERAGE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR BUT THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER NORTH NODS TO THE IDEA OF NOT HAVING LIMITING
FACTORS QUITE AS STRONGLY INFLUENCING THE WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE QUITE HOT AND ONLY DIP ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON DAYS THAT
SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE. /68-JGG/

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASING FOR
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND MORE INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WATERS MOVING INTO CLOSER
OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INCREASING WINDS OVER THE LAGUNA WITH SCA FOR
WINDS POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE DAY AND SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF
WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE AT OR NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE DURING THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY THE
AFTERNOON. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO...MODERATE SEAS ARE
FORECAST. MORE MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY WITH MODERATE SEAS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV






000
FXUS64 KBRO 191943
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
243 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THIS LOW WILL ENHANCE A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR...SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW LOW ACTIVITY WITH THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE. ALSO...THE LATEST KBRO 12Z SOUNDING AND THE TPW PERCENT
OF NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO 83 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA AND THE GULF WATERS WHICH IS WAS LIMITING MOST OF THE CONVECTION
TODAY. GFS/NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION INITIATING
TONIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING WESTWARD AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE 1000 TO 500 MB RH VALUES
STILL SHOW UP TO 65 PERCENT OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL FAVOR FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN LIMIT SEABREEZE
FORMATION. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO STREAMER-TYPE SHOWERS
RACING NORTHWARD...SIMILAR TO RAIN FROM YESTERDAY. HAVE BACK OFF ON
CHANCE POPS FOR THE REGION...SETTLING FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. RAIN CHANCE
WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT BUT A FEW SHOWERS ONLY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS ZONES.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDIER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STILL SOME SHOWER CHANCES AS MAIN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES NORTH BUT NO REAL SOLID SIGNALS YET.

THURSDAYS PRIMARY IMPACT LOOKS TO BE WIND. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
GFS/ECMWF/NAM ON POSITION OF MAIN 500MB RIDGE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI/EASTERN LOUISIANA THAT KEEPS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING IN
PLACE OVER THE GULF. WEAK LEE AND THERMAL TROUGHING TO THE WEST WILL
WORK WITH THIS RIDGING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY AREA
WIDE. BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE 20 TO
25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH. GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUGGEST DRY WEATHER WITH CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN
BUT ECMWF/GFS BOTH HOLD ON TO FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER BASICALLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA OWING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
OUTFLOW/GRAVITY WAVES GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SIMILARLY TO
WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM AMID
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS NEAR 100 EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND AROUND 105 INLAND.

STRONGER CONVERGENCE ALOFT IN CONCERT WITH DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES FURTHER DRIES THE COLUMN ON FRIDAY. SYNOPTIC PATTERN
IS LITTLE CHANGED SUGGESTING ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH AMID HOT TEMPERATURES. CONVECTION IS MUCH
LESS ACTIVE IN THE WESTERN GULF WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE HAVING PUSHED
INLAND.  KEPT THE FORECAST DRY CONSIDERING ALL THIS.

SATURDAY MID LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES A LITTLE WEAKER WITH 591DM 500MB
HEIGHT LINE RETREATING TO THE COASTAL BEND. 850-700MB RH VALUES
BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT AND REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE DURING THE NIGHT.
GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUCH THAT IT WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY...TOO
BREEZY FOR A STRONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT NOT QUITE AS WINDY AS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SUNDAY SOUTHEASTERN US RIDGING WEAKENS FURTHER AND AN EASTERLY WAVE
APPEARS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. GFS/ECMWF IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF LAYER MOISTURE INCREASING QUITE A BIT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WEAK ENOUGH TO BE MARGINAL FOR SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT. INCREASED THE AREA COVERED BY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO COVER MOST OF THE VALLEY AND
INCREASED MOST OF CAMERON AND CENTRAL WILLACY COUNTY TO 25 TO 30 PCT
CHANCES WHICH IS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

RIDGING REDEVELOPS BUT STAYS CENTERED FURTHER NORTH ON MONDAY...WITH
THE GFS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH ON MONDAY. CONTINUED
THIS IDEA ON TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCE WILL DEFINITELY BE CONDITIONAL
WITH COVERAGE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR BUT THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER NORTH NODS TO THE IDEA OF NOT HAVING LIMITING
FACTORS QUITE AS STRONGLY INFLUENCING THE WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE QUITE HOT AND ONLY DIP ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON DAYS THAT
SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASING FOR
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND MORE INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WATERS MOVING INTO CLOSER
OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INCREASING WINDS OVER THE LAGUNA WITH SCA FOR
WINDS POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE DAY AND SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF
WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE AT OR NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE DURING THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY THE
AFTERNOON. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO...MODERATE SEAS ARE
FORECAST. MORE MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY WITH MODERATE SEAS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  82  94  82  95 /  10  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          79  96  80  96 /  10  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            79  97  79  99 /  10  20  10  20
MCALLEN              80 101  80 101 /  10  20  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      80 101  80 102 /  10  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  91  82  91 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...TORRES
LONG TERM...GIBBS
UPPER AIR/GRAPHICAST...MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 191943
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
243 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THIS LOW WILL ENHANCE A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR...SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW LOW ACTIVITY WITH THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE. ALSO...THE LATEST KBRO 12Z SOUNDING AND THE TPW PERCENT
OF NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO 83 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA AND THE GULF WATERS WHICH IS WAS LIMITING MOST OF THE CONVECTION
TODAY. GFS/NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION INITIATING
TONIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING WESTWARD AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE 1000 TO 500 MB RH VALUES
STILL SHOW UP TO 65 PERCENT OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL FAVOR FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN LIMIT SEABREEZE
FORMATION. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO STREAMER-TYPE SHOWERS
RACING NORTHWARD...SIMILAR TO RAIN FROM YESTERDAY. HAVE BACK OFF ON
CHANCE POPS FOR THE REGION...SETTLING FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. RAIN CHANCE
WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT BUT A FEW SHOWERS ONLY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS ZONES.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDIER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STILL SOME SHOWER CHANCES AS MAIN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES NORTH BUT NO REAL SOLID SIGNALS YET.

THURSDAYS PRIMARY IMPACT LOOKS TO BE WIND. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
GFS/ECMWF/NAM ON POSITION OF MAIN 500MB RIDGE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI/EASTERN LOUISIANA THAT KEEPS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING IN
PLACE OVER THE GULF. WEAK LEE AND THERMAL TROUGHING TO THE WEST WILL
WORK WITH THIS RIDGING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY AREA
WIDE. BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE 20 TO
25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH. GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUGGEST DRY WEATHER WITH CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN
BUT ECMWF/GFS BOTH HOLD ON TO FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER BASICALLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA OWING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
OUTFLOW/GRAVITY WAVES GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SIMILARLY TO
WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM AMID
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS NEAR 100 EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND AROUND 105 INLAND.

STRONGER CONVERGENCE ALOFT IN CONCERT WITH DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES FURTHER DRIES THE COLUMN ON FRIDAY. SYNOPTIC PATTERN
IS LITTLE CHANGED SUGGESTING ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH AMID HOT TEMPERATURES. CONVECTION IS MUCH
LESS ACTIVE IN THE WESTERN GULF WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE HAVING PUSHED
INLAND.  KEPT THE FORECAST DRY CONSIDERING ALL THIS.

SATURDAY MID LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES A LITTLE WEAKER WITH 591DM 500MB
HEIGHT LINE RETREATING TO THE COASTAL BEND. 850-700MB RH VALUES
BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT AND REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE DURING THE NIGHT.
GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUCH THAT IT WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY...TOO
BREEZY FOR A STRONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT NOT QUITE AS WINDY AS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SUNDAY SOUTHEASTERN US RIDGING WEAKENS FURTHER AND AN EASTERLY WAVE
APPEARS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. GFS/ECMWF IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF LAYER MOISTURE INCREASING QUITE A BIT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WEAK ENOUGH TO BE MARGINAL FOR SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT. INCREASED THE AREA COVERED BY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO COVER MOST OF THE VALLEY AND
INCREASED MOST OF CAMERON AND CENTRAL WILLACY COUNTY TO 25 TO 30 PCT
CHANCES WHICH IS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

RIDGING REDEVELOPS BUT STAYS CENTERED FURTHER NORTH ON MONDAY...WITH
THE GFS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH ON MONDAY. CONTINUED
THIS IDEA ON TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCE WILL DEFINITELY BE CONDITIONAL
WITH COVERAGE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR BUT THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER NORTH NODS TO THE IDEA OF NOT HAVING LIMITING
FACTORS QUITE AS STRONGLY INFLUENCING THE WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE QUITE HOT AND ONLY DIP ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON DAYS THAT
SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASING FOR
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND MORE INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WATERS MOVING INTO CLOSER
OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INCREASING WINDS OVER THE LAGUNA WITH SCA FOR
WINDS POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE DAY AND SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF
WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE AT OR NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE DURING THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY THE
AFTERNOON. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO...MODERATE SEAS ARE
FORECAST. MORE MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY WITH MODERATE SEAS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  82  94  82  95 /  10  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          79  96  80  96 /  10  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            79  97  79  99 /  10  20  10  20
MCALLEN              80 101  80 101 /  10  20  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      80 101  80 102 /  10  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  91  82  91 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...TORRES
LONG TERM...GIBBS
UPPER AIR/GRAPHICAST...MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 191754
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1254 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING ALONG THE COAST
WILL INCREASE SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUST CLOSE
TO 30 KNOTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF WATERS
MOVES INLAND. DEBRI CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KHRL AND KMFE WILL LOWER WINDS BETWEEN 10
TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND BECOME LIGHTER EARLY IN THE MORNING BUT
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING BEGINS AND GRADIENT RESTRENGTHENS. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS
MOISTURE TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERS
WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH TEMPO REDUCTIONS TO CIGS AND
VIS. OTHERWISE THE DAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL LOWER TO 5 TO 10
OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...TOUGH FORECAST TODAY AS H2
LOW SPIN TO THE SOUTH AND SPREADS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...BUT
ALL FORECAST MODELS SHOW POP CHANCES OF 0 TO 5 PERCENT. LAST
NIGHTS SOUNDING SHOWED A DRIER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...WITH THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN LIMIT SEABREEZE FORMATION. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED
TO STREAMER-TYPE SHOWERS RACING NORTHWARD...SIMILAR TO RAIN FROM
YESTERDAY. HAVE BACK OFF ON CHANCE POPS FOR THE REGION...SETTLING
FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. RAIN CHANCE WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY A COUPLE SHOWERS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES.
EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS JOINED BY THE TUTT LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...A FEW SHOTS FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM ALTHOUGH CHANCES WONT BE VERY GOOD
AND COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED. FIRST UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
INLAND TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE AREA ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WESTERN MOVING TROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY. AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES INLAND OUR PWATS DROP DOWN TO
1.2 INCHES FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH...WEAKER THAN THE
FIRST...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH PWATS JUMPING BACK
UP TO 1.7 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT PWAT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DO
THINK ONE OR TWO SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF BEGINNING
MONDAY WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES. MORE OF THE SCATTERED VARIETY
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT HAVE KEPT DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO BEING FAR OUT IN TIME.

MID LEVEL HIGH WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHICH WILL
KEEP THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF AND BRINGING IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER /THURSDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK/...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG SO BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALREADY
BEEN POSTED FOR TODAY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AS 20 KNOT WINDS BUILD
DURING THE DAY. OPEN GULF WATERS SHOULD REMAIN 15 TO 20KTS THROUGH
THE DAY...REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET...WITH A NOTICEABLE LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
THE SOUTHEAST GREATER THAN 10 SECONDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ADVISORY LIKELY FOR THE
LAGUNA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN STRONG WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE AND SEAS AS WELL FALLING TO NEAR 3 FEET BY THE
WEEKEND. EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE LAGUNA THURSDAY
AHEAD OF MORE MODERATE WINDS ACROSS ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/68









000
FXUS64 KBRO 191754
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1254 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING ALONG THE COAST
WILL INCREASE SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUST CLOSE
TO 30 KNOTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF WATERS
MOVES INLAND. DEBRI CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KHRL AND KMFE WILL LOWER WINDS BETWEEN 10
TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND BECOME LIGHTER EARLY IN THE MORNING BUT
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING BEGINS AND GRADIENT RESTRENGTHENS. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS
MOISTURE TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERS
WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH TEMPO REDUCTIONS TO CIGS AND
VIS. OTHERWISE THE DAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL LOWER TO 5 TO 10
OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...TOUGH FORECAST TODAY AS H2
LOW SPIN TO THE SOUTH AND SPREADS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...BUT
ALL FORECAST MODELS SHOW POP CHANCES OF 0 TO 5 PERCENT. LAST
NIGHTS SOUNDING SHOWED A DRIER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...WITH THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN LIMIT SEABREEZE FORMATION. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED
TO STREAMER-TYPE SHOWERS RACING NORTHWARD...SIMILAR TO RAIN FROM
YESTERDAY. HAVE BACK OFF ON CHANCE POPS FOR THE REGION...SETTLING
FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. RAIN CHANCE WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY A COUPLE SHOWERS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES.
EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS JOINED BY THE TUTT LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...A FEW SHOTS FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM ALTHOUGH CHANCES WONT BE VERY GOOD
AND COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED. FIRST UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
INLAND TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE AREA ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WESTERN MOVING TROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY. AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES INLAND OUR PWATS DROP DOWN TO
1.2 INCHES FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH...WEAKER THAN THE
FIRST...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH PWATS JUMPING BACK
UP TO 1.7 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT PWAT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DO
THINK ONE OR TWO SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF BEGINNING
MONDAY WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES. MORE OF THE SCATTERED VARIETY
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT HAVE KEPT DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO BEING FAR OUT IN TIME.

MID LEVEL HIGH WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHICH WILL
KEEP THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF AND BRINGING IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER /THURSDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK/...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG SO BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALREADY
BEEN POSTED FOR TODAY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AS 20 KNOT WINDS BUILD
DURING THE DAY. OPEN GULF WATERS SHOULD REMAIN 15 TO 20KTS THROUGH
THE DAY...REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET...WITH A NOTICEABLE LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
THE SOUTHEAST GREATER THAN 10 SECONDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ADVISORY LIKELY FOR THE
LAGUNA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN STRONG WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE AND SEAS AS WELL FALLING TO NEAR 3 FEET BY THE
WEEKEND. EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE LAGUNA THURSDAY
AHEAD OF MORE MODERATE WINDS ACROSS ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/68








000
FXUS64 KBRO 191134 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
634 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS
MOISTURE TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERS
WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH TEMPO REDUCTIONS TO CIGS AND
VIS. OTHERWISE THE DAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL LOWER TO 5 TO 10
OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...TOUGH FORECAST TODAY AS H2
LOW SPIN TO THE SOUTH AND SPREADS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...BUT
ALL FORECAST MODELS SHOW POP CHANCES OF 0 TO 5 PERCENT. LAST
NIGHTS SOUNDING SHOWED A DRIER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...WITH THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN LIMIT SEABREEZE FORMATION. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED
TO STREAMER-TYPE SHOWERS RACING NORTHWARD...SIMILAR TO RAIN FROM
YESTERDAY. HAVE BACK OFF ON CHANCE POPS FOR THE REGION...SETTLING
FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. RAIN CHANCE WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY A COUPLE SHOWERS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES.
EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS JOINED BY THE TUTT LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...A FEW SHOTS FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM ALTHOUGH CHANCES WONT BE VERY GOOD
AND COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED. FIRST UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
INLAND TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE AREA ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WESTERN MOVING TROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY. AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES INLAND OUR PWATS DROP DOWN TO
1.2 INCHES FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH...WEAKER THAN THE
FIRST...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH PWATS JUMPING BACK
UP TO 1.7 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT PWAT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DO
THINK ONE OR TWO SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF BEGINNING
MONDAY WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES. MORE OF THE SCATTERED VARIETY
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT HAVE KEPT DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO BEING FAR OUT IN TIME.

MID LEVEL HIGH WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHICH WILL
KEEP THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF AND BRINGING IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER /THURSDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK/...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG SO BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALREADY
BEEN POSTED FOR TODAY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AS 20 KNOT WINDS BUILD
DURING THE DAY. OPEN GULF WATERS SHOULD REMAIN 15 TO 20KTS THROUGH
THE DAY...REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET...WITH A NOTICEABLE LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
THE SOUTHEAST GREATER THAN 10 SECONDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ADVISORY LIKELY FOR THE
LAGUNA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN STRONG WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE AND SEAS AS WELL FALLING TO NEAR 3 FEET BY THE
WEEKEND. EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE LAGUNA THURSDAY
AHEAD OF MORE MODERATE WINDS ACROSS ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64/51






000
FXUS64 KBRO 191134 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
634 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS
MOISTURE TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERS
WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH TEMPO REDUCTIONS TO CIGS AND
VIS. OTHERWISE THE DAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL LOWER TO 5 TO 10
OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...TOUGH FORECAST TODAY AS H2
LOW SPIN TO THE SOUTH AND SPREADS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...BUT
ALL FORECAST MODELS SHOW POP CHANCES OF 0 TO 5 PERCENT. LAST
NIGHTS SOUNDING SHOWED A DRIER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...WITH THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN LIMIT SEABREEZE FORMATION. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED
TO STREAMER-TYPE SHOWERS RACING NORTHWARD...SIMILAR TO RAIN FROM
YESTERDAY. HAVE BACK OFF ON CHANCE POPS FOR THE REGION...SETTLING
FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. RAIN CHANCE WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY A COUPLE SHOWERS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES.
EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS JOINED BY THE TUTT LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...A FEW SHOTS FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM ALTHOUGH CHANCES WONT BE VERY GOOD
AND COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED. FIRST UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
INLAND TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE AREA ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WESTERN MOVING TROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY. AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES INLAND OUR PWATS DROP DOWN TO
1.2 INCHES FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH...WEAKER THAN THE
FIRST...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH PWATS JUMPING BACK
UP TO 1.7 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT PWAT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DO
THINK ONE OR TWO SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF BEGINNING
MONDAY WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES. MORE OF THE SCATTERED VARIETY
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT HAVE KEPT DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO BEING FAR OUT IN TIME.

MID LEVEL HIGH WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHICH WILL
KEEP THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF AND BRINGING IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER /THURSDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK/...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG SO BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALREADY
BEEN POSTED FOR TODAY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AS 20 KNOT WINDS BUILD
DURING THE DAY. OPEN GULF WATERS SHOULD REMAIN 15 TO 20KTS THROUGH
THE DAY...REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET...WITH A NOTICEABLE LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
THE SOUTHEAST GREATER THAN 10 SECONDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ADVISORY LIKELY FOR THE
LAGUNA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN STRONG WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE AND SEAS AS WELL FALLING TO NEAR 3 FEET BY THE
WEEKEND. EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE LAGUNA THURSDAY
AHEAD OF MORE MODERATE WINDS ACROSS ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64/51







000
FXUS64 KBRO 190854
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...TOUGH FORECAST TODAY AS H2
LOW SPIN TO THE SOUTH AND SPREADS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...BUT
ALL FORECAST MODELS SHOW POP CHANCES OF 0 TO 5 PERCENT. LAST
NIGHTS SOUNDING SHOWED A DRIER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...WITH THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN LIMIT SEABREEZE FORMATION. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED
TO STREAMER-TYPE SHOWERS RACING NORTHWARD...SIMILAR TO RAIN FROM
YESTERDAY. HAVE BACK OFF ON CHANCE POPS FOR THE REGION...SETTLING
FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. RAIN CHANCE WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY A COUPLE SHOWERS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES.
EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS JOINED BY THE TUTT LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...A FEW SHOTS FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM ALTHOUGH CHANCES WONT BE VERY GOOD
AND COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED. FIRST UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
INLAND TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE AREA ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WESTERN MOVING TROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY. AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES INLAND OUR PWATS DROP DOWN TO
1.2 INCHES FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH...WEAKER THAN THE
FIRST...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH PWATS JUMPING BACK
UP TO 1.7 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT PWAT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DO
THINK ONE OR TWO SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF BEGINNING
MONDAY WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES. MORE OF THE SCATTERED VARIETY
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT HAVE KEPT DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO BEING FAR OUT IN TIME.

MID LEVEL HIGH WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHICH WILL
KEEP THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF AND BRINGING IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER /THURSDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK/...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG SO BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALREADY
BEEN POSTED FOR TODAY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AS 20 KNOT WINDS BUILD
DURING THE DAY. OPEN GULF WATERS SHOULD REMAIN 15 TO 20KTS THROUGH
THE DAY...REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET...WITH A NOTICEABLE LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
THE SOUTHEAST GREATER THAN 10 SECONDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ADVISORY LIKELY FOR THE
LAGUNA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN STRONG WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE AND SEAS AS WELL FALLING TO NEAR 3 FEET BY THE
WEEKEND. EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE LAGUNA THURSDAY
AHEAD OF MORE MODERATE WINDS ACROSS ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  82  96  82 /  20  10  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          97  79  96  80 /  20  10  20  10
HARLINGEN            99  79  99  79 /  20  10  20  10
MCALLEN             101  80 101  80 /  20  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  80 101  80 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   92  80  92  82 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...64
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58






000
FXUS64 KBRO 190854
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...TOUGH FORECAST TODAY AS H2
LOW SPIN TO THE SOUTH AND SPREADS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...BUT
ALL FORECAST MODELS SHOW POP CHANCES OF 0 TO 5 PERCENT. LAST
NIGHTS SOUNDING SHOWED A DRIER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...WITH THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN LIMIT SEABREEZE FORMATION. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED
TO STREAMER-TYPE SHOWERS RACING NORTHWARD...SIMILAR TO RAIN FROM
YESTERDAY. HAVE BACK OFF ON CHANCE POPS FOR THE REGION...SETTLING
FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. RAIN CHANCE WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY A COUPLE SHOWERS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES.
EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS JOINED BY THE TUTT LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...A FEW SHOTS FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM ALTHOUGH CHANCES WONT BE VERY GOOD
AND COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED. FIRST UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
INLAND TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE AREA ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WESTERN MOVING TROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY. AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES INLAND OUR PWATS DROP DOWN TO
1.2 INCHES FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH...WEAKER THAN THE
FIRST...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH PWATS JUMPING BACK
UP TO 1.7 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT PWAT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DO
THINK ONE OR TWO SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF BEGINNING
MONDAY WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES. MORE OF THE SCATTERED VARIETY
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT HAVE KEPT DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO BEING FAR OUT IN TIME.

MID LEVEL HIGH WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHICH WILL
KEEP THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF AND BRINGING IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER /THURSDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK/...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG SO BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALREADY
BEEN POSTED FOR TODAY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AS 20 KNOT WINDS BUILD
DURING THE DAY. OPEN GULF WATERS SHOULD REMAIN 15 TO 20KTS THROUGH
THE DAY...REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET...WITH A NOTICEABLE LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
THE SOUTHEAST GREATER THAN 10 SECONDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ADVISORY LIKELY FOR THE
LAGUNA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN STRONG WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE AND SEAS AS WELL FALLING TO NEAR 3 FEET BY THE
WEEKEND. EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE LAGUNA THURSDAY
AHEAD OF MORE MODERATE WINDS ACROSS ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  82  96  82 /  20  10  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          97  79  96  80 /  20  10  20  10
HARLINGEN            99  79  99  79 /  20  10  20  10
MCALLEN             101  80 101  80 /  20  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  80 101  80 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   92  80  92  82 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...64
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58







000
FXUS64 KBRO 190539 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1239 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUD COVER LIMITED TO HIGH CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT...REMNANTS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE JUST AFTER SUNRISE...RISING TO
15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
TRANSITIONED TAF FROM PROB30 TO TEMPO TSRA ACTIVITY FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ONLY BRIEFLY IMPACT LOCAL
AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL REMAIN SCT TO BKN AROUND 4000 FEET.
WINDS RELAX TO 5 TO 10KTS AFTER SUNSET

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...DEEP SOUTH FLOW TO 10 KFT SUPPORTED BY A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A NON-CAPPED SOUNDING LED TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY...WHICH ARE PERSISTING INTO EARLY EVENING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS JUST
ABOUT AN EQUALLY WINDY DAY ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
SOUTH WILL KEEP PWAT PROPPED UP NEAR TWO INCHES...AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY TROPICAL MARINE CONVECTION...PERHAPS COMBINING WITH
A SEA BREEZE...WILL WE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WILL BE A THREAT...BUT BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AROUND ALL TAF SITES. AVIATION
INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK WEATHER CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY ON TUESDAY AS
HAZARDOUS CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP QUICKLY. SCT TO BKN SKIES WILL
PREDOMINATE MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT CEILINGS AND VSBY SHOULD REMAIN
VFR EXCEPT FOR REDUCTIONS IN AND NEAR CONVECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE
CHARLES LA/

DISCUSSION...WAVE OF MOISTURE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT ORIGINATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
JUST OFF THE MEXICO COAST ABOUT 200 NM SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. THIS
WAS A RARE EVENT THAT WAS NOT CAPTURED IN THE GFS MOS OR NAM MOS
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. NEVERTHELESS...WE WERE NOT TOO SURPRISED SINCE
THE SATELLITE CAPTURED THE CONVECTION PLUME APPROACHING SOUTH
TEXAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. WE DID SEE SOME SOME VERY HIGH GUSTS
IN THE SOUTH TEXAS AND MARINE AREAS WITH A OUTFLOW OF WINDS FROM
THE CONVECTIVE LINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AS OF THIS WRITING.

WILL CARRY POPS IN THE EVENING HOURS SINCE OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO INITIATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GONE BY
06Z.

ON TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW IT AGAIN...THE
SAME UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTH UP THE MEXICO
COAST AND THEREFORE WENT AHEAD AND ADDED POPS FOR MORNING OFFSHORE
AND ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BETTER TO BE PESSIMISTIC IN
THESE SITUATION WHEN YOU HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHING INTO SOUTH
TEXAS. DAYTIME HEATING OUGHT TO ALSO HELP TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS WELL. BET BET FOR
RAIN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE INLAND COASTAL AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MEXICO COAST DISTURBANCE
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL BE LESS OF A WEATHER MAKER
AS THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE DOME TO THE NORTH WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT FIXED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND ARKANSAS REGION...THE
FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE POSSIBILITY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS EACH DAY. WE ARE WATCHING THE POSSIBILITY
OF TWO TUTT LOWS MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THAT GENERALLY WILL HELP INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SEEING AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR NOW THOUGH...JUST EXPECT WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...STILL...THOSE PLANNING TO GO OUT
DOORS FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME WILL SWEAT LIKE THE DICKENS AND WILL
DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RE-HYDRATED WITH WATER. SEEK COOLER SHELTER
IF YOU FEEL FAINT FROM THE HEAT. NEVER CAN BE TOO CAUTIOUS UNDER
THE TEXAS SUN (FIGURATIVELY SPEAKING).

MARINE...
ONSHORE SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED
DURING TUESDAY`S EARLY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL
REISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS SOME. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SEE LITTLE CHANGE DAY
TO DAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 5 FEET DAILY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64/51






000
FXUS64 KBRO 190539 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1239 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUD COVER LIMITED TO HIGH CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT...REMNANTS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE JUST AFTER SUNRISE...RISING TO
15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
TRANSITIONED TAF FROM PROB30 TO TEMPO TSRA ACTIVITY FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ONLY BRIEFLY IMPACT LOCAL
AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL REMAIN SCT TO BKN AROUND 4000 FEET.
WINDS RELAX TO 5 TO 10KTS AFTER SUNSET

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...DEEP SOUTH FLOW TO 10 KFT SUPPORTED BY A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A NON-CAPPED SOUNDING LED TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY...WHICH ARE PERSISTING INTO EARLY EVENING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS JUST
ABOUT AN EQUALLY WINDY DAY ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
SOUTH WILL KEEP PWAT PROPPED UP NEAR TWO INCHES...AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY TROPICAL MARINE CONVECTION...PERHAPS COMBINING WITH
A SEA BREEZE...WILL WE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WILL BE A THREAT...BUT BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AROUND ALL TAF SITES. AVIATION
INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK WEATHER CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY ON TUESDAY AS
HAZARDOUS CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP QUICKLY. SCT TO BKN SKIES WILL
PREDOMINATE MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT CEILINGS AND VSBY SHOULD REMAIN
VFR EXCEPT FOR REDUCTIONS IN AND NEAR CONVECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE
CHARLES LA/

DISCUSSION...WAVE OF MOISTURE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT ORIGINATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
JUST OFF THE MEXICO COAST ABOUT 200 NM SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. THIS
WAS A RARE EVENT THAT WAS NOT CAPTURED IN THE GFS MOS OR NAM MOS
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. NEVERTHELESS...WE WERE NOT TOO SURPRISED SINCE
THE SATELLITE CAPTURED THE CONVECTION PLUME APPROACHING SOUTH
TEXAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. WE DID SEE SOME SOME VERY HIGH GUSTS
IN THE SOUTH TEXAS AND MARINE AREAS WITH A OUTFLOW OF WINDS FROM
THE CONVECTIVE LINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AS OF THIS WRITING.

WILL CARRY POPS IN THE EVENING HOURS SINCE OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO INITIATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GONE BY
06Z.

ON TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW IT AGAIN...THE
SAME UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTH UP THE MEXICO
COAST AND THEREFORE WENT AHEAD AND ADDED POPS FOR MORNING OFFSHORE
AND ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BETTER TO BE PESSIMISTIC IN
THESE SITUATION WHEN YOU HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHING INTO SOUTH
TEXAS. DAYTIME HEATING OUGHT TO ALSO HELP TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS WELL. BET BET FOR
RAIN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE INLAND COASTAL AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MEXICO COAST DISTURBANCE
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL BE LESS OF A WEATHER MAKER
AS THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE DOME TO THE NORTH WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT FIXED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND ARKANSAS REGION...THE
FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE POSSIBILITY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS EACH DAY. WE ARE WATCHING THE POSSIBILITY
OF TWO TUTT LOWS MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THAT GENERALLY WILL HELP INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SEEING AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR NOW THOUGH...JUST EXPECT WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...STILL...THOSE PLANNING TO GO OUT
DOORS FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME WILL SWEAT LIKE THE DICKENS AND WILL
DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RE-HYDRATED WITH WATER. SEEK COOLER SHELTER
IF YOU FEEL FAINT FROM THE HEAT. NEVER CAN BE TOO CAUTIOUS UNDER
THE TEXAS SUN (FIGURATIVELY SPEAKING).

MARINE...
ONSHORE SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED
DURING TUESDAY`S EARLY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL
REISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS SOME. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SEE LITTLE CHANGE DAY
TO DAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 5 FEET DAILY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64/51







000
FXUS64 KBRO 190046 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
746 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...DEEP SOUTH FLOW TO 10 KFT SUPPORTED BY A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A NON-CAPPED SOUNDING LED TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY...WHICH ARE PERSISTING INTO EARLY EVENING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS JUST
ABOUT AN EQUALLY WINDY DAY ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
SOUTH WILL KEEP PWAT PROPPED UP NEAR TWO INCHES...AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY TROPICAL MARINE CONVECTION...PERHAPS COMBINING WITH
A SEA BREEZE...WILL WE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WILL BE A THREAT...BUT BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AROUND ALL TAF SITES. AVIATION
INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK WEATHER CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY ON TUESDAY AS
HAZARDOUS CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP QUICKLY. SCT TO BKN SKIES WILL
PREDOMINATE MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT CEILINGS AND VSBY SHOULD REMAIN
VFR EXCEPT FOR REDUCTIONS IN AND NEAR CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE
CHARLES LA/

DISCUSSION...WAVE OF MOISTURE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT ORIGINATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
JUST OFF THE MEXICO COAST ABOUT 200 NM SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. THIS
WAS A RARE EVENT THAT WAS NOT CAPTURED IN THE GFS MOS OR NAM MOS
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. NEVERTHELESS...WE WERE NOT TOO SURPRISED SINCE
THE SATELLITE CAPTURED THE CONVECTION PLUME APPROACHING SOUTH
TEXAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. WE DID SEE SOME SOME VERY HIGH GUSTS
IN THE SOUTH TEXAS AND MARINE AREAS WITH A OUTFLOW OF WINDS FROM
THE CONVECTIVE LINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AS OF THIS WRITING.

WILL CARRY POPS IN THE EVENING HOURS SINCE OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO INITIATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GONE BY
06Z.

ON TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW IT AGAIN...THE
SAME UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTH UP THE MEXICO
COAST AND THEREFORE WENT AHEAD AND ADDED POPS FOR MORNING OFFSHORE
AND ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BETTER TO BE PESSIMISTIC IN
THESE SITUATION WHEN YOU HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHING INTO SOUTH
TEXAS. DAYTIME HEATING OUGHT TO ALSO HELP TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS WELL. BET BET FOR
RAIN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE INLAND COASTAL AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MEXICO COAST DISTURBANCE
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL BE LESS OF A WEATHER MAKER
AS THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE DOME TO THE NORTH WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT FIXED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND ARKANSAS REGION...THE
FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE POSSIBILITY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS EACH DAY. WE ARE WATCHING THE POSSIBILITY
OF TWO TUTT LOWS MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THAT GENERALLY WILL HELP INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SEEING AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR NOW THOUGH...JUST EXPECT WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...STILL...THOSE PLANNING TO GO OUT
DOORS FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME WILL SWEAT LIKE THE DICKENS AND WILL
DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RE-HYDRATED WITH WATER. SEEK COOLER SHELTER
IF YOU FEEL FAINT FROM THE HEAT. NEVER CAN BE TOO CAUTIOUS UNDER
THE TEXAS SUN (FIGURATIVELY SPEAKING).

MARINE...
ONSHORE SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED
DURING TUESDAY`S EARLY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL
REISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS SOME. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SEE LITTLE CHANGE DAY
TO DAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 5 FEET DAILY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/63/MARTINEZ





000
FXUS64 KBRO 190046 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
746 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...DEEP SOUTH FLOW TO 10 KFT SUPPORTED BY A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A NON-CAPPED SOUNDING LED TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY...WHICH ARE PERSISTING INTO EARLY EVENING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS JUST
ABOUT AN EQUALLY WINDY DAY ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
SOUTH WILL KEEP PWAT PROPPED UP NEAR TWO INCHES...AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY TROPICAL MARINE CONVECTION...PERHAPS COMBINING WITH
A SEA BREEZE...WILL WE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WILL BE A THREAT...BUT BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AROUND ALL TAF SITES. AVIATION
INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK WEATHER CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY ON TUESDAY AS
HAZARDOUS CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP QUICKLY. SCT TO BKN SKIES WILL
PREDOMINATE MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT CEILINGS AND VSBY SHOULD REMAIN
VFR EXCEPT FOR REDUCTIONS IN AND NEAR CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE
CHARLES LA/

DISCUSSION...WAVE OF MOISTURE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT ORIGINATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
JUST OFF THE MEXICO COAST ABOUT 200 NM SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. THIS
WAS A RARE EVENT THAT WAS NOT CAPTURED IN THE GFS MOS OR NAM MOS
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. NEVERTHELESS...WE WERE NOT TOO SURPRISED SINCE
THE SATELLITE CAPTURED THE CONVECTION PLUME APPROACHING SOUTH
TEXAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. WE DID SEE SOME SOME VERY HIGH GUSTS
IN THE SOUTH TEXAS AND MARINE AREAS WITH A OUTFLOW OF WINDS FROM
THE CONVECTIVE LINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AS OF THIS WRITING.

WILL CARRY POPS IN THE EVENING HOURS SINCE OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO INITIATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GONE BY
06Z.

ON TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW IT AGAIN...THE
SAME UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTH UP THE MEXICO
COAST AND THEREFORE WENT AHEAD AND ADDED POPS FOR MORNING OFFSHORE
AND ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BETTER TO BE PESSIMISTIC IN
THESE SITUATION WHEN YOU HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHING INTO SOUTH
TEXAS. DAYTIME HEATING OUGHT TO ALSO HELP TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS WELL. BET BET FOR
RAIN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE INLAND COASTAL AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MEXICO COAST DISTURBANCE
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL BE LESS OF A WEATHER MAKER
AS THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE DOME TO THE NORTH WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT FIXED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND ARKANSAS REGION...THE
FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE POSSIBILITY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS EACH DAY. WE ARE WATCHING THE POSSIBILITY
OF TWO TUTT LOWS MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THAT GENERALLY WILL HELP INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SEEING AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR NOW THOUGH...JUST EXPECT WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...STILL...THOSE PLANNING TO GO OUT
DOORS FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME WILL SWEAT LIKE THE DICKENS AND WILL
DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RE-HYDRATED WITH WATER. SEEK COOLER SHELTER
IF YOU FEEL FAINT FROM THE HEAT. NEVER CAN BE TOO CAUTIOUS UNDER
THE TEXAS SUN (FIGURATIVELY SPEAKING).

MARINE...
ONSHORE SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED
DURING TUESDAY`S EARLY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL
REISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS SOME. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SEE LITTLE CHANGE DAY
TO DAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 5 FEET DAILY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/63/MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 182100
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WAVE OF MOISTURE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THAT ORIGINATED WITH A DISTURBANCE JUST OFF THE
MEXICO COAST ABOUT 200 NM SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. THIS WAS A RARE
EVENT THAT WAS NOT CAPTURED IN THE GFS MOS OR NAM MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
NEVER THE LESS...WE WERE NOT TOO SURPRISED SINCE THE SATELLITE
CAPTURED THE CONVECTION PLUME APPROACHING SOUTH TEXAS EARLIER THIS
MORNING. WE DID SEE SOME SOME VERY HIGH GUSTS IN THE SOUTH TEXAS
AND MARINE AREAS WITH A OUTFLOW OF WINDS FROM THE CONVECTIVE LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AS OF THIS WRITING.

WILL CARRY POPS IN THE EVENING HOURS SINCE OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO INITIATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GONE BY 06Z.

ON TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW IT AGAIN...THE
SAME UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTH UP THE
MEXICO COAST AND THEREFORE WENT AHEAD AND ADDED POPS FOR MORNING
OFFSHORE AND ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BETTER TO BE PESSIMISTIC
IN THESE SITUATION WHEN YOU HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHING INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
DAYTIME HEATING OUGHT TO ALSO HELP TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS WELL. BET BET FOR RAIN IN THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE INLAND COASTAL AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MEXICO COAST DISTURBANCE
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL BE LESS OF A WEATHER
MAKER AS THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE DOME TO THE NORTH
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FIXED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND ARKANSAS
REGION...THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS EACH DAY. WE ARE
WATCHING THE POSSIBILITY OF TWO TUTT LOWS MOVING INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THAT GENERALLY WILL HELP INCREASE THE
CHANCES OF SEEING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR NOW THOUGH...JUST EXPECT WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...STILL...THOSE PLANNING TO GO
OUTDOORS FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME WILL SWEAT LIKE THE DICKENS AND WILL
DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RE-HYDRATED WITH WATER. SEEK A COOLER SHELTER
IF YOU FEEL FAINT FROM THE HEAT. NEVER CAN BE TOO CAUTIOUS UNDER
THE TEXAS SUN (FIGURATIVELY SPEAKING).

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED
DURING TUESDAY`S EARLY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL
REISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS SOME. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SEE LITTLE CHANGE DAY
TO DAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 5 FEET DAILY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  82  96  81  96 /  20  30  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          80  97  80  97 /  20  30  10  20
HARLINGEN            79  99  79  99 /  20  30  10  20
MCALLEN              80 102  80 101 /  20  30  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 103  79 102 /  20  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  92  81  93 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

06





000
FXUS64 KBRO 182100
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WAVE OF MOISTURE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THAT ORIGINATED WITH A DISTURBANCE JUST OFF THE
MEXICO COAST ABOUT 200 NM SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. THIS WAS A RARE
EVENT THAT WAS NOT CAPTURED IN THE GFS MOS OR NAM MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
NEVER THE LESS...WE WERE NOT TOO SURPRISED SINCE THE SATELLITE
CAPTURED THE CONVECTION PLUME APPROACHING SOUTH TEXAS EARLIER THIS
MORNING. WE DID SEE SOME SOME VERY HIGH GUSTS IN THE SOUTH TEXAS
AND MARINE AREAS WITH A OUTFLOW OF WINDS FROM THE CONVECTIVE LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AS OF THIS WRITING.

WILL CARRY POPS IN THE EVENING HOURS SINCE OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO INITIATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GONE BY 06Z.

ON TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW IT AGAIN...THE
SAME UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTH UP THE
MEXICO COAST AND THEREFORE WENT AHEAD AND ADDED POPS FOR MORNING
OFFSHORE AND ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BETTER TO BE PESSIMISTIC
IN THESE SITUATION WHEN YOU HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHING INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
DAYTIME HEATING OUGHT TO ALSO HELP TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS WELL. BET BET FOR RAIN IN THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE INLAND COASTAL AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MEXICO COAST DISTURBANCE
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL BE LESS OF A WEATHER
MAKER AS THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE DOME TO THE NORTH
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FIXED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND ARKANSAS
REGION...THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS EACH DAY. WE ARE
WATCHING THE POSSIBILITY OF TWO TUTT LOWS MOVING INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THAT GENERALLY WILL HELP INCREASE THE
CHANCES OF SEEING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR NOW THOUGH...JUST EXPECT WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...STILL...THOSE PLANNING TO GO
OUTDOORS FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME WILL SWEAT LIKE THE DICKENS AND WILL
DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RE-HYDRATED WITH WATER. SEEK A COOLER SHELTER
IF YOU FEEL FAINT FROM THE HEAT. NEVER CAN BE TOO CAUTIOUS UNDER
THE TEXAS SUN (FIGURATIVELY SPEAKING).

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED
DURING TUESDAY`S EARLY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL
REISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS SOME. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SEE LITTLE CHANGE DAY
TO DAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 5 FEET DAILY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  82  96  81  96 /  20  30  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          80  97  80  97 /  20  30  10  20
HARLINGEN            79  99  79  99 /  20  30  10  20
MCALLEN              80 102  80 101 /  20  30  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 103  79 102 /  20  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  92  81  93 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

06






000
FXUS64 KBRO 182035
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WAVE OF MOISTURE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THAT ORIGINATED WITH A DISTURBANCE JUST OFF THE
MEXICO COAST ABOUT 200 NM SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. THIS WAS A RARE
EVENT THAT WAS NOT CAPTURED IN THE GFS MOS OR NAM MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
NEVER THE LESS...WE WERE NOT TOO SURPRISED SINCE THE SATELLITE
CAPTURED THE CONVECTION PLUME APPROACHING SOUTH TEXAS EARLIER THIS
MORNING. WE DID SEE SOME SOME VERY HIGH GUSTS IN THE SOUTH TEXAS
AND MARINE AREAS WITH A OUTFLOW OF WINDS FROM THE CONVECTIVE LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AS OF THIS WRITING.

WILL CARRY POPS IN THE EVENING HOURS SINCE OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO INITIATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GONE BY 06Z.

ON TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW IT AGAIN...THE
SAME UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTH UP THE
MEXICO COAST AND THEREFORE WENT AHEAD AND ADDED POPS FOR MORNING
OFFSHORE AND ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BETTER TO BE PESSIMISTIC
IN THESE SITUATION WHEN YOU HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHING INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
DAYTIME HEATING OUGHT TO ALSO HELP TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS WELL. BET BET FOR RAIN IN THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE INLAND COASTAL AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MEXICO COAST DISTURBANCE
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL BE LESS OF A WEATHER
MAKER AS THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE DOME TO THE NORTH
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FIXED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND ARKANSAS
REGION...THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS EACH DAY. WE ARE
WATCHING THE POSSIBILITY OF TWO TUTT LOWS MOVING INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THAT GENERALLY WILL HELP INCREASE THE
CHANCES OF SEEING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR NOW THOUGH...JUST EXPECT WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...STILL...THOSE PLANNING TO GO
OUTDOORS FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME WILL SWEAT LIKE THE DICKENS AND WILL
DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RE-HYDRATED WITH WATER. SEEK A COOLER SHELTER
IF YOU FEEL FAINT FROM THE HEAT. NEVER CAN BE TOO CAUTIOUS UNDER
THE TEXAS SUN (FIGURATIVELY SPEAKING).

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED
DURING TUESDAY`S EARLY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL
REISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS SOME. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SEE LITTLE CHANGE DAY
TO DAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 5 FEET DAILY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  82  96  81  96 /  20  30  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          80  97  80  97 /  20  30  10  20
HARLINGEN            79  99  79  99 /  20  30  10  20
MCALLEN              80 102  80 101 /  20  30  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 103  79 102 /  20  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  92  81  93 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

06







000
FXUS64 KBRO 182035
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WAVE OF MOISTURE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THAT ORIGINATED WITH A DISTURBANCE JUST OFF THE
MEXICO COAST ABOUT 200 NM SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. THIS WAS A RARE
EVENT THAT WAS NOT CAPTURED IN THE GFS MOS OR NAM MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
NEVER THE LESS...WE WERE NOT TOO SURPRISED SINCE THE SATELLITE
CAPTURED THE CONVECTION PLUME APPROACHING SOUTH TEXAS EARLIER THIS
MORNING. WE DID SEE SOME SOME VERY HIGH GUSTS IN THE SOUTH TEXAS
AND MARINE AREAS WITH A OUTFLOW OF WINDS FROM THE CONVECTIVE LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AS OF THIS WRITING.

WILL CARRY POPS IN THE EVENING HOURS SINCE OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO INITIATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GONE BY 06Z.

ON TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW IT AGAIN...THE
SAME UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTH UP THE
MEXICO COAST AND THEREFORE WENT AHEAD AND ADDED POPS FOR MORNING
OFFSHORE AND ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BETTER TO BE PESSIMISTIC
IN THESE SITUATION WHEN YOU HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHING INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
DAYTIME HEATING OUGHT TO ALSO HELP TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS WELL. BET BET FOR RAIN IN THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE INLAND COASTAL AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MEXICO COAST DISTURBANCE
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL BE LESS OF A WEATHER
MAKER AS THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE DOME TO THE NORTH
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FIXED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND ARKANSAS
REGION...THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS EACH DAY. WE ARE
WATCHING THE POSSIBILITY OF TWO TUTT LOWS MOVING INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THAT GENERALLY WILL HELP INCREASE THE
CHANCES OF SEEING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR NOW THOUGH...JUST EXPECT WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...STILL...THOSE PLANNING TO GO
OUTDOORS FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME WILL SWEAT LIKE THE DICKENS AND WILL
DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RE-HYDRATED WITH WATER. SEEK A COOLER SHELTER
IF YOU FEEL FAINT FROM THE HEAT. NEVER CAN BE TOO CAUTIOUS UNDER
THE TEXAS SUN (FIGURATIVELY SPEAKING).

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED
DURING TUESDAY`S EARLY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL
REISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS SOME. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SEE LITTLE CHANGE DAY
TO DAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 5 FEET DAILY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  82  96  81  96 /  20  30  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          80  97  80  97 /  20  30  10  20
HARLINGEN            79  99  79  99 /  20  30  10  20
MCALLEN              80 102  80 101 /  20  30  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 103  79 102 /  20  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  92  81  93 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

06








000
FXUS64 KBRO 181759
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1259 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
LOOKING AT THAT PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING UP THE COAST OF MEXICO...DECIDED
TO RAISE POPS AND ADD THUNDER TO SOME FORECAST AREAS MOSTLY
COASTAL WATERS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE INLAND AREAS. 06

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA/

UPDATE...
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE INLINE WITH FORECAST. DEWPOINTS RUNNING A TAD
DEGREE HIGHER FROM MCALLEN TO HARLINGEN TO BROWNSVILLE. MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE OF
SOME CONCERN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
BROWNSVILLE AREA AND JUST INLAND OF THE LAGUNA MADRE. WILL ADD
ISOLATED POPS TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED. 06

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 OT
20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WINDS LOWER TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SOME GUSTIER WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...H5 RIDGE TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIVES DOWN THE
ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
EAST...MERGING WITH EXPANDING RIDGE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE GULF. A
TROUGH AT H2 CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN ABOVE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD.

TODAY...MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...SO NO RAN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN REACH ABOVE 100 FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL AGAIN REACH 105 TO 109...BUT WILL NOT REACH HIGHER
NUMBERS AS DRY SFC AIR COVERS MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS
WILL AGAIN ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

TUESDAY...THE H2 LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD...PULLING GULF MOISTURE TOWARD
THE VALLEY. PW VALUES STILL ONLY REACH 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE GULF WATERS AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL REGIONS. THE SEABREEZE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED AS WINDS REMAIN
TOO HIGH FOR THE SEABREEZE TO FOCUS. HIGHS AGAIN REACH 100 FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE VALLEY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IF THERE ARE ANY BEST
DAYS FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WOULD BE THE DAYS BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD DROUGHT DENTING RAINFALL.

WILL BE MONITORING A PAIR OF 25H LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES THE NEXT
3 TO 7 DAYS AS THEY TRACK ACROSS THE TROPICS WORKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE FIRST UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
NEAR TAMPICO AND WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. A SUBTLE
INCREASE OF SURFACE MOISTURE AND PWATS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS HOWEVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
LACKING WITH THE CONTINUING FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS LIMITING THE
SEA BREEZE TO SET UP. LINGERING BUT DECREASING MOISTURE CONTENT
BUT LIGHTER WINDS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER CROP OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS THURSDAY BUT NOTHING MORE THEN ISOLATED COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EVEN WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE DAY TO DAY
VARIANCES AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
CONDUCTED.

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO BE IN BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVES AND UPPER LOWS ON
FRIDAY RETURNING TO RAINFREE AND CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND A DEGREE OR TWO WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER ATMOSPHERE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT LOW/ AND
TROPICAL WAVE TO ARRIVE IN TANDEM NEXT WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS THE TWO
ELEMENTS ARRIVE SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH BROADER AND SLOWER
WITH THE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AND
LINGERING INTO MONDAY. THERE REMAINS ROOM FOR ADJUSTMENTS AS WE
APPROACH NEXT WEEK. GOING FORECAST PAINTS SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT DO NOT THINK EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN AT LEAST RIGHT
NOW. ONE SHOULD NOTE CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT THE END OF AUGUST
BEGINS OUR EVENTUAL INCREASE OF DAILY RAINFALL CHANCES AS TROPICAL
WAVES BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND TRACKING EVER MORE SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD. DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT JUST YET
WITH THE RAIN CHANCES STILL LOW AND UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PERSISTENTLY HOT.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
TODAY FOR WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
KEEPS THE GRADIENT ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS HAVE REACHED 4 FEET AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. &&

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER
STRONG FOR THIS TIME YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MAINTAINING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE RIDGE
BACKS OFF SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW. SEAS TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN TO
SLOWER THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER NEXT WEEKEND MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT NIGHT HOURS.

FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY BREEZES OF AROUND 20 MPH WILL AGAIN CROSS THE
REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. RH VALUES WILL
FALL TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE WESTERN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT HAPPEN IN THE SAME AREAS AT THE SAME
TIME...SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT ELEVATE TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE RISK CONTINUES TO INCREASE DUE TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND QUICKLY DRY FUELS THIS WEEK...BUT WILL NOT
FULLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  82  96  81 /  30  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          96  80  97  80 /  30  10  10  10
HARLINGEN           100  79  99  79 /  30  10  10  10
MCALLEN             102  80 102  80 /  20  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  79 103  79 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   90  81  92  81 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

51/51






000
FXUS64 KBRO 181759
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1259 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
LOOKING AT THAT PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING UP THE COAST OF MEXICO...DECIDED
TO RAISE POPS AND ADD THUNDER TO SOME FORECAST AREAS MOSTLY
COASTAL WATERS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE INLAND AREAS. 06

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA/

UPDATE...
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE INLINE WITH FORECAST. DEWPOINTS RUNNING A TAD
DEGREE HIGHER FROM MCALLEN TO HARLINGEN TO BROWNSVILLE. MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE OF
SOME CONCERN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
BROWNSVILLE AREA AND JUST INLAND OF THE LAGUNA MADRE. WILL ADD
ISOLATED POPS TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED. 06

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 OT
20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WINDS LOWER TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SOME GUSTIER WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...H5 RIDGE TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIVES DOWN THE
ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
EAST...MERGING WITH EXPANDING RIDGE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE GULF. A
TROUGH AT H2 CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN ABOVE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD.

TODAY...MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...SO NO RAN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN REACH ABOVE 100 FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL AGAIN REACH 105 TO 109...BUT WILL NOT REACH HIGHER
NUMBERS AS DRY SFC AIR COVERS MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS
WILL AGAIN ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

TUESDAY...THE H2 LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD...PULLING GULF MOISTURE TOWARD
THE VALLEY. PW VALUES STILL ONLY REACH 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE GULF WATERS AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL REGIONS. THE SEABREEZE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED AS WINDS REMAIN
TOO HIGH FOR THE SEABREEZE TO FOCUS. HIGHS AGAIN REACH 100 FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE VALLEY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IF THERE ARE ANY BEST
DAYS FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WOULD BE THE DAYS BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD DROUGHT DENTING RAINFALL.

WILL BE MONITORING A PAIR OF 25H LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES THE NEXT
3 TO 7 DAYS AS THEY TRACK ACROSS THE TROPICS WORKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE FIRST UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
NEAR TAMPICO AND WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. A SUBTLE
INCREASE OF SURFACE MOISTURE AND PWATS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS HOWEVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
LACKING WITH THE CONTINUING FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS LIMITING THE
SEA BREEZE TO SET UP. LINGERING BUT DECREASING MOISTURE CONTENT
BUT LIGHTER WINDS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER CROP OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS THURSDAY BUT NOTHING MORE THEN ISOLATED COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EVEN WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE DAY TO DAY
VARIANCES AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
CONDUCTED.

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO BE IN BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVES AND UPPER LOWS ON
FRIDAY RETURNING TO RAINFREE AND CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND A DEGREE OR TWO WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER ATMOSPHERE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT LOW/ AND
TROPICAL WAVE TO ARRIVE IN TANDEM NEXT WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS THE TWO
ELEMENTS ARRIVE SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH BROADER AND SLOWER
WITH THE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AND
LINGERING INTO MONDAY. THERE REMAINS ROOM FOR ADJUSTMENTS AS WE
APPROACH NEXT WEEK. GOING FORECAST PAINTS SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT DO NOT THINK EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN AT LEAST RIGHT
NOW. ONE SHOULD NOTE CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT THE END OF AUGUST
BEGINS OUR EVENTUAL INCREASE OF DAILY RAINFALL CHANCES AS TROPICAL
WAVES BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND TRACKING EVER MORE SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD. DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT JUST YET
WITH THE RAIN CHANCES STILL LOW AND UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PERSISTENTLY HOT.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
TODAY FOR WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
KEEPS THE GRADIENT ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS HAVE REACHED 4 FEET AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. &&

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER
STRONG FOR THIS TIME YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MAINTAINING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE RIDGE
BACKS OFF SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW. SEAS TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN TO
SLOWER THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER NEXT WEEKEND MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT NIGHT HOURS.

FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY BREEZES OF AROUND 20 MPH WILL AGAIN CROSS THE
REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. RH VALUES WILL
FALL TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE WESTERN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT HAPPEN IN THE SAME AREAS AT THE SAME
TIME...SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT ELEVATE TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE RISK CONTINUES TO INCREASE DUE TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND QUICKLY DRY FUELS THIS WEEK...BUT WILL NOT
FULLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  82  96  81 /  30  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          96  80  97  80 /  30  10  10  10
HARLINGEN           100  79  99  79 /  30  10  10  10
MCALLEN             102  80 102  80 /  20  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  79 103  79 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   90  81  92  81 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

51/51







000
FXUS64 KBRO 181617
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1117 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE INLINE WITH FORECAST. DEWPOINTS RUNNING A TAD
DEGREE HIGHER FROM MCALLEN TO HARLINGEN TO BROWNSVILLE. MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE OF
SOME CONCERN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
BROWNSVILLE AREA AND JUST INLAND OF THE LAGUNA MADRE. WILL ADD
ISOLATED POPS TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED. 06

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 OT
20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WINDS LOWER TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SOME GUSTIER WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...H5 RIDGE TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIVES DOWN THE
ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
EAST...MERGING WITH EXPANDING RIDGE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE GULF. A
TROUGH AT H2 CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN ABOVE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD.

TODAY...MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...SO NO RAN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN REACH ABOVE 100 FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL AGAIN REACH 105 TO 109...BUT WILL NOT REACH HIGHER
NUMBERS AS DRY SFC AIR COVERS MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS
WILL AGAIN ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

TUESDAY...THE H2 LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD...PULLING GULF MOISTURE TOWARD
THE VALLEY. PW VALUES STILL ONLY REACH 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE GULF WATERS AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL REGIONS. THE SEABREEZE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED AS WINDS REMAIN
TOO HIGH FOR THE SEABREEZE TO FOCUS. HIGHS AGAIN REACH 100 FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE VALLEY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IF THERE ARE ANY BEST
DAYS FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WOULD BE THE DAYS BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD DROUGHT DENTING RAINFALL.

WILL BE MONITORING A PAIR OF 25H LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES THE NEXT
3 TO 7 DAYS AS THEY TRACK ACROSS THE TROPICS WORKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE FIRST UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
NEAR TAMPICO AND WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. A SUBTLE
INCREASE OF SURFACE MOISTURE AND PWATS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS HOWEVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
LACKING WITH THE CONTINUING FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS LIMITING THE
SEA BREEZE TO SET UP. LINGERING BUT DECREASING MOISTURE CONTENT
BUT LIGHTER WINDS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER CROP OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS THURSDAY BUT NOTHING MORE THEN ISOLATED COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EVEN WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE DAY TO DAY
VARIANCES AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
CONDUCTED.

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO BE IN BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVES AND UPPER LOWS ON
FRIDAY RETURNING TO RAINFREE AND CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND A DEGREE OR TWO WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER ATMOSPHERE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT LOW/ AND
TROPICAL WAVE TO ARRIVE IN TANDEM NEXT WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS THE TWO
ELEMENTS ARRIVE SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH BROADER AND SLOWER
WITH THE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AND
LINGERING INTO MONDAY. THERE REMAINS ROOM FOR ADJUSTMENTS AS WE
APPROACH NEXT WEEK. GOING FORECAST PAINTS SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT DO NOT THINK EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN AT LEAST RIGHT
NOW. ONE SHOULD NOTE CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT THE END OF AUGUST
BEGINS OUR EVENTUAL INCREASE OF DAILY RAINFALL CHANCES AS TROPICAL
WAVES BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND TRACKING EVER MORE SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD. DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT JUST YET
WITH THE RAIN CHANCES STILL LOW AND UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PERSISTENTLY HOT.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
TODAY FOR WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
KEEPS THE GRADIENT ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS HAVE REACHED 4 FEET AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. &&

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER
STRONG FOR THIS TIME YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MAINTAINING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE RIDGE
BACKS OFF SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW. SEAS TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN TO
SLOWER THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER NEXT WEEKEND MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT NIGHT HOURS.

FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY BREEZES OF AROUND 20 MPH WILL AGAIN CROSS THE
REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. RH VALUES WILL
FALL TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE WESTERN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT HAPPEN IN THE SAME AREAS AT THE SAME
TIME...SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT ELEVATE TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE RISK CONTINUES TO INCREASE DUE TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND QUICKLY DRY FUELS THIS WEEK...BUT WILL NOT
FULLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  82  96  81 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          97  80  97  80 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN           100  79  99  79 /  20  10  10  10
MCALLEN             102  80 102  80 /   0  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  79 103  79 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   90  81  92  81 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

51/51







000
FXUS64 KBRO 181617
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1117 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE INLINE WITH FORECAST. DEWPOINTS RUNNING A TAD
DEGREE HIGHER FROM MCALLEN TO HARLINGEN TO BROWNSVILLE. MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE OF
SOME CONCERN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
BROWNSVILLE AREA AND JUST INLAND OF THE LAGUNA MADRE. WILL ADD
ISOLATED POPS TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED. 06

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 OT
20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WINDS LOWER TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SOME GUSTIER WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...H5 RIDGE TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIVES DOWN THE
ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
EAST...MERGING WITH EXPANDING RIDGE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE GULF. A
TROUGH AT H2 CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN ABOVE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD.

TODAY...MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...SO NO RAN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN REACH ABOVE 100 FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL AGAIN REACH 105 TO 109...BUT WILL NOT REACH HIGHER
NUMBERS AS DRY SFC AIR COVERS MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS
WILL AGAIN ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

TUESDAY...THE H2 LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD...PULLING GULF MOISTURE TOWARD
THE VALLEY. PW VALUES STILL ONLY REACH 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE GULF WATERS AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL REGIONS. THE SEABREEZE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED AS WINDS REMAIN
TOO HIGH FOR THE SEABREEZE TO FOCUS. HIGHS AGAIN REACH 100 FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE VALLEY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IF THERE ARE ANY BEST
DAYS FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WOULD BE THE DAYS BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD DROUGHT DENTING RAINFALL.

WILL BE MONITORING A PAIR OF 25H LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES THE NEXT
3 TO 7 DAYS AS THEY TRACK ACROSS THE TROPICS WORKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE FIRST UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
NEAR TAMPICO AND WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. A SUBTLE
INCREASE OF SURFACE MOISTURE AND PWATS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS HOWEVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
LACKING WITH THE CONTINUING FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS LIMITING THE
SEA BREEZE TO SET UP. LINGERING BUT DECREASING MOISTURE CONTENT
BUT LIGHTER WINDS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER CROP OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS THURSDAY BUT NOTHING MORE THEN ISOLATED COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EVEN WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE DAY TO DAY
VARIANCES AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
CONDUCTED.

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO BE IN BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVES AND UPPER LOWS ON
FRIDAY RETURNING TO RAINFREE AND CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND A DEGREE OR TWO WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER ATMOSPHERE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT LOW/ AND
TROPICAL WAVE TO ARRIVE IN TANDEM NEXT WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS THE TWO
ELEMENTS ARRIVE SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH BROADER AND SLOWER
WITH THE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AND
LINGERING INTO MONDAY. THERE REMAINS ROOM FOR ADJUSTMENTS AS WE
APPROACH NEXT WEEK. GOING FORECAST PAINTS SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT DO NOT THINK EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN AT LEAST RIGHT
NOW. ONE SHOULD NOTE CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT THE END OF AUGUST
BEGINS OUR EVENTUAL INCREASE OF DAILY RAINFALL CHANCES AS TROPICAL
WAVES BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND TRACKING EVER MORE SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD. DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT JUST YET
WITH THE RAIN CHANCES STILL LOW AND UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PERSISTENTLY HOT.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
TODAY FOR WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
KEEPS THE GRADIENT ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS HAVE REACHED 4 FEET AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. &&

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER
STRONG FOR THIS TIME YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MAINTAINING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE RIDGE
BACKS OFF SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW. SEAS TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN TO
SLOWER THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER NEXT WEEKEND MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT NIGHT HOURS.

FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY BREEZES OF AROUND 20 MPH WILL AGAIN CROSS THE
REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. RH VALUES WILL
FALL TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE WESTERN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT HAPPEN IN THE SAME AREAS AT THE SAME
TIME...SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT ELEVATE TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE RISK CONTINUES TO INCREASE DUE TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND QUICKLY DRY FUELS THIS WEEK...BUT WILL NOT
FULLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  82  96  81 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          97  80  97  80 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN           100  79  99  79 /  20  10  10  10
MCALLEN             102  80 102  80 /   0  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  79 103  79 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   90  81  92  81 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

51/51






000
FXUS64 KBRO 181126 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
626 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 OT
20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WINDS LOWER TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SOME GUSTIER WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...H5 RIDGE TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIVES DOWN THE
ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
EAST...MERGING WITH EXPANDING RIDGE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE GULF. A
TROUGH AT H2 CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN ABOVE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD.

TODAY...MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...SO NO RAN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN REACH ABOVE 100 FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL AGAIN REACH 105 TO 109...BUT WILL NOT REACH HIGHER
NUMBERS AS DRY SFC AIR COVERS MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS
WILL AGAIN ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

TUESDAY...THE H2 LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD...PULLING GULF MOISTURE TOWARD
THE VALLEY. PW VALUES STILL ONLY REACH 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE GULF WATERS AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL REGIONS. THE SEABREEZE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED AS WINDS REMAIN
TOO HIGH FOR THE SEABREEZE TO FOCUS. HIGHS AGAIN REACH 100 FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE VALLEY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IF THERE ARE ANY BEST
DAYS FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WOULD BE THE DAYS BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD DROUGHT DENTING RAINFALL.

WILL BE MONITORING A PAIR OF 25H LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES THE NEXT
3 TO 7 DAYS AS THEY TRACK ACROSS THE TROPICS WORKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE FIRST UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
NEAR TAMPICO AND WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. A SUBTLE
INCREASE OF SURFACE MOISTURE AND PWATS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS HOWEVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
LACKING WITH THE CONTINUING FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS LIMITING THE
SEA BREEZE TO SET UP. LINGERING BUT DECREASING MOISTURE CONTENT
BUT LIGHTER WINDS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER CROP OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS THURSDAY BUT NOTHING MORE THEN ISOLATED COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EVEN WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE DAY TO DAY
VARIANCES AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
CONDUCTED.

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO BE IN BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVES AND UPPER LOWS ON
FRIDAY RETURNING TO RAINFREE AND CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND A DEGREE OR TWO WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER ATMOSPHERE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT LOW/ AND
TROPICAL WAVE TO ARRIVE IN TANDEM NEXT WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS THE TWO
ELEMENTS ARRIVE SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH BROADER AND SLOWER
WITH THE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AND
LINGERING INTO MONDAY. THERE REMAINS ROOM FOR ADJUSTMENTS AS WE
APPROACH NEXT WEEK. GOING FORECAST PAINTS SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT DO NOT THINK EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN AT LEAST RIGHT
NOW. ONE SHOULD NOTE CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT THE END OF AUGUST
BEGINS OUR EVENTUAL INCREASE OF DAILY RAINFALL CHANCES AS TROPICAL
WAVES BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND TRACKING EVER MORE SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD. DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT JUST YET
WITH THE RAIN CHANCES STILL LOW AND UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PERSISTENTLY HOT.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
TODAY FOR WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
KEEPS THE GRADIENT ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS HAVE REACHED 4 FEET AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. &&

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER
STRONG FOR THIS TIME YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MAINTAINING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE RIDGE
BACKS OFF SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW. SEAS TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN TO
SLOWER THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER NEXT WEEKEND MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT NIGHT HOURS.

FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY BREEZES OF AROUND 20 MPH WILL AGAIN CROSS THE
REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. RH VALUES WILL
FALL TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE WESTERN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT HAPPEN IN THE SAME AREAS AT THE SAME
TIME...SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT ELEVATE TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE RISK CONTINUES TO INCREASE DUE TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND QUICKLY DRY FUELS THIS WEEK...BUT WILL NOT
FULLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64/51






000
FXUS64 KBRO 181126 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
626 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 OT
20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WINDS LOWER TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SOME GUSTIER WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...H5 RIDGE TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIVES DOWN THE
ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
EAST...MERGING WITH EXPANDING RIDGE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE GULF. A
TROUGH AT H2 CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN ABOVE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD.

TODAY...MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...SO NO RAN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN REACH ABOVE 100 FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL AGAIN REACH 105 TO 109...BUT WILL NOT REACH HIGHER
NUMBERS AS DRY SFC AIR COVERS MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS
WILL AGAIN ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

TUESDAY...THE H2 LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD...PULLING GULF MOISTURE TOWARD
THE VALLEY. PW VALUES STILL ONLY REACH 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE GULF WATERS AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL REGIONS. THE SEABREEZE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED AS WINDS REMAIN
TOO HIGH FOR THE SEABREEZE TO FOCUS. HIGHS AGAIN REACH 100 FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE VALLEY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IF THERE ARE ANY BEST
DAYS FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WOULD BE THE DAYS BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD DROUGHT DENTING RAINFALL.

WILL BE MONITORING A PAIR OF 25H LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES THE NEXT
3 TO 7 DAYS AS THEY TRACK ACROSS THE TROPICS WORKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE FIRST UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
NEAR TAMPICO AND WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. A SUBTLE
INCREASE OF SURFACE MOISTURE AND PWATS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS HOWEVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
LACKING WITH THE CONTINUING FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS LIMITING THE
SEA BREEZE TO SET UP. LINGERING BUT DECREASING MOISTURE CONTENT
BUT LIGHTER WINDS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER CROP OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS THURSDAY BUT NOTHING MORE THEN ISOLATED COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EVEN WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE DAY TO DAY
VARIANCES AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
CONDUCTED.

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO BE IN BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVES AND UPPER LOWS ON
FRIDAY RETURNING TO RAINFREE AND CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND A DEGREE OR TWO WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER ATMOSPHERE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT LOW/ AND
TROPICAL WAVE TO ARRIVE IN TANDEM NEXT WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS THE TWO
ELEMENTS ARRIVE SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH BROADER AND SLOWER
WITH THE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AND
LINGERING INTO MONDAY. THERE REMAINS ROOM FOR ADJUSTMENTS AS WE
APPROACH NEXT WEEK. GOING FORECAST PAINTS SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT DO NOT THINK EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN AT LEAST RIGHT
NOW. ONE SHOULD NOTE CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT THE END OF AUGUST
BEGINS OUR EVENTUAL INCREASE OF DAILY RAINFALL CHANCES AS TROPICAL
WAVES BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND TRACKING EVER MORE SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD. DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT JUST YET
WITH THE RAIN CHANCES STILL LOW AND UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PERSISTENTLY HOT.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
TODAY FOR WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
KEEPS THE GRADIENT ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS HAVE REACHED 4 FEET AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. &&

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER
STRONG FOR THIS TIME YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MAINTAINING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE RIDGE
BACKS OFF SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW. SEAS TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN TO
SLOWER THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER NEXT WEEKEND MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT NIGHT HOURS.

FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY BREEZES OF AROUND 20 MPH WILL AGAIN CROSS THE
REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. RH VALUES WILL
FALL TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE WESTERN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT HAPPEN IN THE SAME AREAS AT THE SAME
TIME...SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT ELEVATE TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE RISK CONTINUES TO INCREASE DUE TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND QUICKLY DRY FUELS THIS WEEK...BUT WILL NOT
FULLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64/51







000
FXUS64 KBRO 180958 CCA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
455 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014


CORRECTION FOR PLACEMENT OF FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...H5 RIDGE TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIVES DOWN THE
ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
EAST...MERGING WITH EXPANDING RIDGE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE GULF. A
TROUGH AT H2 CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN ABOVE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD.

TODAY...MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...SO NO RAN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN REACH ABOVE 100 FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL AGAIN REACH 105 TO 109...BUT WILL NOT REACH HIGHER
NUMBERS AS DRY SFC AIR COVERS MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS
WILL AGAIN ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

TUESDAY...THE H2 LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD...PULLING GULF MOISTURE TOWARD
THE VALLEY. PW VALUES STILL ONLY REACH 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE GULF WATERS AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL REGIONS. THE SEABREEZE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED AS WINDS REMAIN
TOO HIGH FOR THE SEABREEZE TO FOCUS. HIGHS AGAIN REACH 100 FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE VALLEY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IF THERE ARE ANY BEST
DAYS FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WOULD BE THE DAYS BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD DROUGHT DENTING RAINFALL.

WILL BE MONITORING A PAIR OF 25H LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES THE NEXT
3 TO 7 DAYS AS THEY TRACK ACROSS THE TROPICS WORKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE FIRST UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
NEAR TAMPICO AND WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. A SUBTLE
INCREASE OF SURFACE MOISTURE AND PWATS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS HOWEVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
LACKING WITH THE CONTINUING FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS LIMITING THE
SEA BREEZE TO SET UP. LINGERING BUT DECREASING MOISTURE CONTENT
BUT LIGHTER WINDS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER CROP OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS THURSDAY BUT NOTHING MORE THEN ISOLATED COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EVEN WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE DAY TO DAY
VARIANCES AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
CONDUCTED.

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO BE IN BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVES AND UPPER LOWS ON
FRIDAY RETURNING TO RAINFREE AND CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND A DEGREE OR TWO WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER ATMOSPHERE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT LOW/ AND
TROPICAL WAVE TO ARRIVE IN TANDEM NEXT WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS THE TWO
ELEMENTS ARRIVE SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH BROADER AND SLOWER
WITH THE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AND
LINGERING INTO MONDAY. THERE REMAINS ROOM FOR ADJUSTMENTS AS WE
APPROACH NEXT WEEK. GOING FORECAST PAINTS SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT DO NOT THINK EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN AT LEAST RIGHT
NOW. ONE SHOULD NOTE CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT THE END OF AUGUST
BEGINS OUR EVENTUAL INCREASE OF DAILY RAINFALL CHANCES AS TROPICAL
WAVES BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND TRACKING EVER MORE SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD. DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT JUST YET
WITH THE RAIN CHANCES STILL LOW AND UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PERSISTENTLY HOT.


&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
TODAY FOR WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
KEEPS THE GRADIENT ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS HAVE REACHED 4 FEET AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. &&

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER
STRONG FOR THIS TIME YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MAINTAINING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE RIDGE
BACKS OFF SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW. SEAS TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN TO
SLOWER THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER NEXT WEEKEND MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT NIGHT HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY BREEZES OF AROUND 20 MPH WILL AGAIN CROSS THE
REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. RH VALUES WILL
FALL TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE WESTERN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT HAPPEN IN THE SAME AREAS AT THE SAME
TIME...SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT ELEVATE TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE RISK CONTINUES TO INCREASE DUE TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND QUICKLY DRY FUELS THIS WEEK...BUT WILL NOT
FULLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  82  96  81 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          97  80  97  80 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN           100  79  99  79 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN             102  80 102  80 /   0  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  79 103  79 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   90  81  92  81 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
BILLINGS...GRAPHICS/PSU









000
FXUS64 KBRO 180958 CCA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
455 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014


CORRECTION FOR PLACEMENT OF FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...H5 RIDGE TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIVES DOWN THE
ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
EAST...MERGING WITH EXPANDING RIDGE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE GULF. A
TROUGH AT H2 CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN ABOVE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD.

TODAY...MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...SO NO RAN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN REACH ABOVE 100 FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL AGAIN REACH 105 TO 109...BUT WILL NOT REACH HIGHER
NUMBERS AS DRY SFC AIR COVERS MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS
WILL AGAIN ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

TUESDAY...THE H2 LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD...PULLING GULF MOISTURE TOWARD
THE VALLEY. PW VALUES STILL ONLY REACH 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE GULF WATERS AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL REGIONS. THE SEABREEZE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED AS WINDS REMAIN
TOO HIGH FOR THE SEABREEZE TO FOCUS. HIGHS AGAIN REACH 100 FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE VALLEY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IF THERE ARE ANY BEST
DAYS FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WOULD BE THE DAYS BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD DROUGHT DENTING RAINFALL.

WILL BE MONITORING A PAIR OF 25H LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES THE NEXT
3 TO 7 DAYS AS THEY TRACK ACROSS THE TROPICS WORKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE FIRST UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
NEAR TAMPICO AND WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. A SUBTLE
INCREASE OF SURFACE MOISTURE AND PWATS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS HOWEVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
LACKING WITH THE CONTINUING FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS LIMITING THE
SEA BREEZE TO SET UP. LINGERING BUT DECREASING MOISTURE CONTENT
BUT LIGHTER WINDS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER CROP OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS THURSDAY BUT NOTHING MORE THEN ISOLATED COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EVEN WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE DAY TO DAY
VARIANCES AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
CONDUCTED.

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO BE IN BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVES AND UPPER LOWS ON
FRIDAY RETURNING TO RAINFREE AND CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND A DEGREE OR TWO WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER ATMOSPHERE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT LOW/ AND
TROPICAL WAVE TO ARRIVE IN TANDEM NEXT WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS THE TWO
ELEMENTS ARRIVE SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH BROADER AND SLOWER
WITH THE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AND
LINGERING INTO MONDAY. THERE REMAINS ROOM FOR ADJUSTMENTS AS WE
APPROACH NEXT WEEK. GOING FORECAST PAINTS SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT DO NOT THINK EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN AT LEAST RIGHT
NOW. ONE SHOULD NOTE CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT THE END OF AUGUST
BEGINS OUR EVENTUAL INCREASE OF DAILY RAINFALL CHANCES AS TROPICAL
WAVES BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND TRACKING EVER MORE SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD. DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT JUST YET
WITH THE RAIN CHANCES STILL LOW AND UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PERSISTENTLY HOT.


&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
TODAY FOR WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
KEEPS THE GRADIENT ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS HAVE REACHED 4 FEET AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. &&

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER
STRONG FOR THIS TIME YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MAINTAINING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE RIDGE
BACKS OFF SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW. SEAS TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN TO
SLOWER THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER NEXT WEEKEND MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT NIGHT HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY BREEZES OF AROUND 20 MPH WILL AGAIN CROSS THE
REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. RH VALUES WILL
FALL TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE WESTERN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT HAPPEN IN THE SAME AREAS AT THE SAME
TIME...SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT ELEVATE TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE RISK CONTINUES TO INCREASE DUE TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND QUICKLY DRY FUELS THIS WEEK...BUT WILL NOT
FULLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  82  96  81 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          97  80  97  80 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN           100  79  99  79 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN             102  80 102  80 /   0  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  79 103  79 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   90  81  92  81 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
BILLINGS...GRAPHICS/PSU








000
FXUS64 KBRO 180911
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
411 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...H5 RIDGE TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIVES DOWN THE
ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
EAST...MERGING WITH EXPANDING RIDGE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE GULF. A
TROUGH AT H2 CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN ABOVE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD.

TODAY...MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...SO NO RAN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN REACH ABOVE 100 FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL AGAIN REACH 105 TO 109...BUT WILL NOT REACH HIGHER
NUMBERS AS DRY SFC AIR COVERS MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS
WILL AGAIN ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

TUESDAY...THE H2 LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD...PULLING GULF MOISTURE TOWARD
THE VALLEY. PW VALUES STILL ONLY REACH 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE GULF WATERS AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL REGIONS. THE SEABREEZE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED AS WINDS REMAIN
TOO HIGH FOR THE SEABREEZE TO FOCUS. HIGHS AGAIN REACH 100 FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE VALLEY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IF THERE ARE ANY BEST
DAYS FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WOULD BE THE DAYS BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD DROUGHT DENTING RAINFALL.

WILL BE MONITORING A PAIR OF 25H LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES THE NEXT
3 TO 7 DAYS AS THEY TRACK ACROSS THE TROPICS WORKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE FIRST UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
NEAR TAMPICO AND WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. A SUBTLE
INCREASE OF SURFACE MOISTURE AND PWATS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS HOWEVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
LACKING WITH THE CONTINUING FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS LIMITING THE
SEA BREEZE TO SET UP. LINGERING BUT DECREASING MOISTURE CONTENT
BUT LIGHTER WINDS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER CROP OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS THURSDAY BUT NOTHING MORE THEN ISOLATED COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EVEN WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE DAY TO DAY
VARIANCES AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
CONDUCTED.

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO BE IN BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVES AND UPPER LOWS ON
FRIDAY RETURNING TO RAINFREE AND CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND A DEGREE OR TWO WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER ATMOSPHERE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT LOW/ AND
TROPICAL WAVE TO ARRIVE IN TANDEM NEXT WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS THE TWO
ELEMENTS ARRIVE SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH BROADER AND SLOWER
WITH THE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AND
LINGERING INTO MONDAY. THERE REMAINS ROOM FOR ADJUSTMENTS AS WE
APPROACH NEXT WEEK. GOING FORECAST PAINTS SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT DO NOT THINK EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN AT LEAST RIGHT
NOW. ONE SHOULD NOTE CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT THE END OF AUGUST
BEGINS OUR EVENTUAL INCREASE OF DAILY RAINFALL CHANCES AS TROPICAL
WAVES BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND TRACKING EVER MORE SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD. DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT JUST YET
WITH THE RAIN CHANCES STILL LOW AND UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PERSISTENTLY HOT.


&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
TODAY FOR WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
KEEPS THE GRADIENT ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS HAVE REACHED 4 FEET AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY BREEZES OF AROUND 20 MPH WILL AGAIN CROSS THE
REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. RH VALUES WILL
FALL TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE WESTERN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT HAPPEN IN THE SAME AREAS AT THE SAME
TIME...SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT ELEVATE TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE RISK CONTINUES TO INCREASE DUE TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND QUICKLY DRY FUELS THIS WEEK...BUT WILL NOT
FULLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER
STRONG FOR THIS TIME YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MAINTAINING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE RIDGE
BACKS OFF SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW. SEAS TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN TO
SLOWER THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER NEXT WEEKEND MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT NIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  82  96  81 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          97  80  97  80 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN           100  79  99  79 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN             102  80 102  80 /   0  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  79 103  79 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   90  81  92  81 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
BILLINGS...GRAPHICS/PSU






000
FXUS64 KBRO 180911
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
411 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...H5 RIDGE TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIVES DOWN THE
ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
EAST...MERGING WITH EXPANDING RIDGE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE GULF. A
TROUGH AT H2 CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN ABOVE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD.

TODAY...MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...SO NO RAN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN REACH ABOVE 100 FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL AGAIN REACH 105 TO 109...BUT WILL NOT REACH HIGHER
NUMBERS AS DRY SFC AIR COVERS MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS
WILL AGAIN ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

TUESDAY...THE H2 LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD...PULLING GULF MOISTURE TOWARD
THE VALLEY. PW VALUES STILL ONLY REACH 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE GULF WATERS AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL REGIONS. THE SEABREEZE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED AS WINDS REMAIN
TOO HIGH FOR THE SEABREEZE TO FOCUS. HIGHS AGAIN REACH 100 FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE VALLEY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IF THERE ARE ANY BEST
DAYS FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WOULD BE THE DAYS BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD DROUGHT DENTING RAINFALL.

WILL BE MONITORING A PAIR OF 25H LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES THE NEXT
3 TO 7 DAYS AS THEY TRACK ACROSS THE TROPICS WORKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE FIRST UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
NEAR TAMPICO AND WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. A SUBTLE
INCREASE OF SURFACE MOISTURE AND PWATS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS HOWEVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
LACKING WITH THE CONTINUING FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS LIMITING THE
SEA BREEZE TO SET UP. LINGERING BUT DECREASING MOISTURE CONTENT
BUT LIGHTER WINDS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER CROP OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS THURSDAY BUT NOTHING MORE THEN ISOLATED COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EVEN WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE DAY TO DAY
VARIANCES AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
CONDUCTED.

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO BE IN BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVES AND UPPER LOWS ON
FRIDAY RETURNING TO RAINFREE AND CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND A DEGREE OR TWO WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER ATMOSPHERE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT LOW/ AND
TROPICAL WAVE TO ARRIVE IN TANDEM NEXT WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS THE TWO
ELEMENTS ARRIVE SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH BROADER AND SLOWER
WITH THE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AND
LINGERING INTO MONDAY. THERE REMAINS ROOM FOR ADJUSTMENTS AS WE
APPROACH NEXT WEEK. GOING FORECAST PAINTS SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT DO NOT THINK EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN AT LEAST RIGHT
NOW. ONE SHOULD NOTE CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT THE END OF AUGUST
BEGINS OUR EVENTUAL INCREASE OF DAILY RAINFALL CHANCES AS TROPICAL
WAVES BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND TRACKING EVER MORE SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD. DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT JUST YET
WITH THE RAIN CHANCES STILL LOW AND UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PERSISTENTLY HOT.


&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
TODAY FOR WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
KEEPS THE GRADIENT ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS HAVE REACHED 4 FEET AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY BREEZES OF AROUND 20 MPH WILL AGAIN CROSS THE
REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. RH VALUES WILL
FALL TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE WESTERN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT HAPPEN IN THE SAME AREAS AT THE SAME
TIME...SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT ELEVATE TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE RISK CONTINUES TO INCREASE DUE TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND QUICKLY DRY FUELS THIS WEEK...BUT WILL NOT
FULLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER
STRONG FOR THIS TIME YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MAINTAINING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE RIDGE
BACKS OFF SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW. SEAS TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN TO
SLOWER THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER NEXT WEEKEND MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT NIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  82  96  81 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          97  80  97  80 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN           100  79  99  79 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN             102  80 102  80 /   0  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  79 103  79 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   90  81  92  81 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
BILLINGS...GRAPHICS/PSU







000
FXUS64 KBRO 180535 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1235 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
NO CIG OR VIS RESTRICTIONS. AFTER SUNRISE...SOUTHEAST BREEZES JUMP
UP QUICKLY...REACH 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS REDUCE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 23 TO 27 KNOTS NOW WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL STAY
PERSISTENT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW PASSING LOW
CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
ON MONDAY...GENERALLY AROUND 14Z. WIND GUSTS OF 27 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A HOT AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH GUSTS PUSHING
30 TO 35 MPH. THAT SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT AROUND 105 OUT WEST AND 98
TO 100 CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD AND
HOLD STEADY OVER THE GULF WITH WEAK TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE THAT SHOULD CONTINUE
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIE OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH A RESIDUAL BREEZE CONTINUING ALL NIGHT...WHICH WILL HOLD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 80 TO 82 THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. RAIN
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW OVER LAND BUT A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF OFFSHORE WATERS APPEAR TO BE A REASONABLE PROSPECT AND LEFT
THOSE IN THE FORECAST.

MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGHING TO THE
NORTH AND WEST WILL PROBABLY BE JUST A BIT WEAKER TOMORROW WITH GULF
RIDGING SLIGHTLY STRONGER...SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH NET CHANGE
IN WIND SPEED FROM SUNDAY WITH GUSTS PUSHING INTO THE 30 TO
OCCASIONALLY 40 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN CAMERON AND WILLACY
COUNTIES. WIND SPEEDS FURTHER INLAND WILL BE ABOUT 5 MPH LOWER THAN
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT WITH MAX VALUES AROUND
98 TO 100 COASTAL COUNTIES 100 TO 105 INLAND.

MONDAY NIGHT...STEADY SOUTHEAST BREEZE CONTINUES IN THE OVERNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD DURING THE LONG TERM PRD AS UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY ENTERS
THE PAC NW. PRESSURE G WILL STRENGTHEN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE WILL SURGE TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND
ENHANCE FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S
PROVIDING A BRIEF BREAK TO THE TRIPLE DIGITS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES FRIDAY WITH DRY AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE GULF.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK UP INTO THE 100 TO 103 DEGREES WEST OF
HWY 281 AND UPPER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. FOR THE
WEEKEND...TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MOVE WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS DURING THE DAY BUT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS NOT IMPACTING THE CWA. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 105 TO 109 DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ARRIVING FOR SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THE WAVE...KEEPING PW VALUES NO HIGHER THAN 1.8 INCHES. WILL
HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WAITING FOR
MORE MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE BACKING OFF THE POP CHANCES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO ALTHOUGH BRIEF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY ON THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ON THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SURGE NW.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF WILL
REMAIN STRONG WITH SE WINDS PREVAILING. EXPECT BREEZE CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER WEDNESDAY AS THE
PG RELAXES. ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BY
SATURDAY RETURNING THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS.

FIRE WEATHER...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH FAIRLY LOW
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PRODUCE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TOMORROW. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE TOO HIGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DESPITE GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64







000
FXUS64 KBRO 180535 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1235 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
NO CIG OR VIS RESTRICTIONS. AFTER SUNRISE...SOUTHEAST BREEZES JUMP
UP QUICKLY...REACH 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS REDUCE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 23 TO 27 KNOTS NOW WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL STAY
PERSISTENT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW PASSING LOW
CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
ON MONDAY...GENERALLY AROUND 14Z. WIND GUSTS OF 27 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A HOT AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH GUSTS PUSHING
30 TO 35 MPH. THAT SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT AROUND 105 OUT WEST AND 98
TO 100 CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD AND
HOLD STEADY OVER THE GULF WITH WEAK TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE THAT SHOULD CONTINUE
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIE OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH A RESIDUAL BREEZE CONTINUING ALL NIGHT...WHICH WILL HOLD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 80 TO 82 THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. RAIN
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW OVER LAND BUT A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF OFFSHORE WATERS APPEAR TO BE A REASONABLE PROSPECT AND LEFT
THOSE IN THE FORECAST.

MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGHING TO THE
NORTH AND WEST WILL PROBABLY BE JUST A BIT WEAKER TOMORROW WITH GULF
RIDGING SLIGHTLY STRONGER...SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH NET CHANGE
IN WIND SPEED FROM SUNDAY WITH GUSTS PUSHING INTO THE 30 TO
OCCASIONALLY 40 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN CAMERON AND WILLACY
COUNTIES. WIND SPEEDS FURTHER INLAND WILL BE ABOUT 5 MPH LOWER THAN
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT WITH MAX VALUES AROUND
98 TO 100 COASTAL COUNTIES 100 TO 105 INLAND.

MONDAY NIGHT...STEADY SOUTHEAST BREEZE CONTINUES IN THE OVERNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD DURING THE LONG TERM PRD AS UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY ENTERS
THE PAC NW. PRESSURE G WILL STRENGTHEN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE WILL SURGE TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND
ENHANCE FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S
PROVIDING A BRIEF BREAK TO THE TRIPLE DIGITS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES FRIDAY WITH DRY AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE GULF.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK UP INTO THE 100 TO 103 DEGREES WEST OF
HWY 281 AND UPPER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. FOR THE
WEEKEND...TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MOVE WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS DURING THE DAY BUT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS NOT IMPACTING THE CWA. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 105 TO 109 DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ARRIVING FOR SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THE WAVE...KEEPING PW VALUES NO HIGHER THAN 1.8 INCHES. WILL
HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WAITING FOR
MORE MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE BACKING OFF THE POP CHANCES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO ALTHOUGH BRIEF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY ON THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ON THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SURGE NW.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF WILL
REMAIN STRONG WITH SE WINDS PREVAILING. EXPECT BREEZE CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER WEDNESDAY AS THE
PG RELAXES. ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BY
SATURDAY RETURNING THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS.

FIRE WEATHER...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH FAIRLY LOW
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PRODUCE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TOMORROW. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE TOO HIGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DESPITE GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64






000
FXUS64 KBRO 172358 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
658 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 23 TO 27 KNOTS NOW WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL STAY
PERSISTENT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW PASSING LOW
CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
ON MONDAY...GENERALLY AROUND 14Z. WIND GUSTS OF 27 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A HOT AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH GUSTS PUSHING
30 TO 35 MPH. THAT SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT AROUND 105 OUT WEST AND 98
TO 100 CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD AND
HOLD STEADY OVER THE GULF WITH WEAK TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE THAT SHOULD CONTINUE
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIE OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH A RESIDUAL BREEZE CONTINUING ALL NIGHT...WHICH WILL HOLD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 80 TO 82 THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. RAIN
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW OVER LAND BUT A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF OFFSHORE WATERS APPEAR TO BE A REASONABLE PROSPECT AND LEFT
THOSE IN THE FORECAST.

MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGHING TO THE
NORTH AND WEST WILL PROBABLY BE JUST A BIT WEAKER TOMORROW WITH GULF
RIDGING SLIGHTLY STRONGER...SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH NET CHANGE
IN WIND SPEED FROM SUNDAY WITH GUSTS PUSHING INTO THE 30 TO
OCCASIONALLY 40 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN CAMERON AND WILLACY
COUNTIES. WIND SPEEDS FURTHER INLAND WILL BE ABOUT 5 MPH LOWER THAN
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT WITH MAX VALUES AROUND
98 TO 100 COASTAL COUNTIES 100 TO 105 INLAND.

MONDAY NIGHT...STEADY SOUTHEAST BREEZE CONTINUES IN THE OVERNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD DURING THE LONG TERM PRD AS UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY ENTERS
THE PAC NW. PRESSURE G WILL STRENGTHEN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE WILL SURGE TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND
ENHANCE FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S
PROVIDING A BRIEF BREAK TO THE TRIPLE DIGITS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES FRIDAY WITH DRY AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE GULF.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK UP INTO THE 100 TO 103 DEGREES WEST OF
HWY 281 AND UPPER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. FOR THE
WEEKEND...TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MOVE WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS DURING THE DAY BUT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS NOT IMPACTING THE CWA. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 105 TO 109 DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ARRIVING FOR SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THE WAVE...KEEPING PW VALUES NO HIGHER THAN 1.8 INCHES. WILL
HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WAITING FOR
MORE MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE BACKING OFF THE POP CHANCES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO ALTHOUGH BRIEF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY ON THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ON THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SURGE NW.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF WILL
REMAIN STRONG WITH SE WINDS PREVAILING. EXPECT BREEZE CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER WEDNESDAY AS THE
PG RELAXES. ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BY
SATURDAY RETURNING THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS.

FIRE WEATHER...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH FAIRLY LOW
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PRODUCE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TOMORROW. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE TOO HIGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DESPITE GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63







000
FXUS64 KBRO 172358 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
658 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 23 TO 27 KNOTS NOW WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL STAY
PERSISTENT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW PASSING LOW
CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
ON MONDAY...GENERALLY AROUND 14Z. WIND GUSTS OF 27 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A HOT AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH GUSTS PUSHING
30 TO 35 MPH. THAT SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT AROUND 105 OUT WEST AND 98
TO 100 CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD AND
HOLD STEADY OVER THE GULF WITH WEAK TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE THAT SHOULD CONTINUE
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIE OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH A RESIDUAL BREEZE CONTINUING ALL NIGHT...WHICH WILL HOLD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 80 TO 82 THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. RAIN
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW OVER LAND BUT A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF OFFSHORE WATERS APPEAR TO BE A REASONABLE PROSPECT AND LEFT
THOSE IN THE FORECAST.

MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGHING TO THE
NORTH AND WEST WILL PROBABLY BE JUST A BIT WEAKER TOMORROW WITH GULF
RIDGING SLIGHTLY STRONGER...SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH NET CHANGE
IN WIND SPEED FROM SUNDAY WITH GUSTS PUSHING INTO THE 30 TO
OCCASIONALLY 40 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN CAMERON AND WILLACY
COUNTIES. WIND SPEEDS FURTHER INLAND WILL BE ABOUT 5 MPH LOWER THAN
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT WITH MAX VALUES AROUND
98 TO 100 COASTAL COUNTIES 100 TO 105 INLAND.

MONDAY NIGHT...STEADY SOUTHEAST BREEZE CONTINUES IN THE OVERNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD DURING THE LONG TERM PRD AS UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY ENTERS
THE PAC NW. PRESSURE G WILL STRENGTHEN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE WILL SURGE TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND
ENHANCE FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S
PROVIDING A BRIEF BREAK TO THE TRIPLE DIGITS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES FRIDAY WITH DRY AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE GULF.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK UP INTO THE 100 TO 103 DEGREES WEST OF
HWY 281 AND UPPER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. FOR THE
WEEKEND...TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MOVE WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS DURING THE DAY BUT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS NOT IMPACTING THE CWA. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 105 TO 109 DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ARRIVING FOR SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THE WAVE...KEEPING PW VALUES NO HIGHER THAN 1.8 INCHES. WILL
HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WAITING FOR
MORE MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE BACKING OFF THE POP CHANCES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO ALTHOUGH BRIEF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY ON THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ON THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SURGE NW.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF WILL
REMAIN STRONG WITH SE WINDS PREVAILING. EXPECT BREEZE CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER WEDNESDAY AS THE
PG RELAXES. ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BY
SATURDAY RETURNING THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS.

FIRE WEATHER...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH FAIRLY LOW
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PRODUCE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TOMORROW. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE TOO HIGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DESPITE GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63






000
FXUS64 KBRO 171954
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
254 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A HOT AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH GUSTS PUSHING
30 TO 35 MPH. THAT SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT AROUND 105 OUT WEST AND 98
TO 100 CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD AND
HOLD STEADY OVER THE GULF WITH WEAK TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE THAT SHOULD CONTINUE
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIE OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH A RESIDUAL BREEZE CONTINUING ALL NIGHT...WHICH WILL HOLD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 80 TO 82 THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. RAIN
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW OVER LAND BUT A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF OFFSHORE WATERS APPEAR TO BE A REASONABLE PROSPECT AND LEFT
THOSE IN THE FORECAST.

MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGHING TO THE
NORTH AND WEST WILL PROBABLY BE JUST A BIT WEAKER TOMORROW WITH GULF
RIDGING SLIGHTLY STRONGER...SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH NET CHANGE
IN WIND SPEED FROM SUNDAY WITH GUSTS PUSHING INTO THE 30 TO
OCCASIONALLY 40 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN CAMERON AND WILLACY
COUNTIES. WIND SPEEDS FURTHER INLAND WILL BE ABOUT 5 MPH LOWER THAN
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT WITH MAX VALUES AROUND
98 TO 100 COASTAL COUNTIES 100 TO 105 INLAND.

MONDAY NIGHT...STEADY SOUTHEAST BREEZE CONTINUES IN THE OVERNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD DURING THE LONG TERM PRD AS UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY ENTERS
THE PAC NW. PRESSURE G WILL STRENGTHEN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE WILL SURGE TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND
ENHANCE FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S
PROVIDING A BRIEF BREAK TO THE TRIPLE DIGITS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES FRIDAY WITH DRY AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE GULF.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK UP INTO THE 100 TO 103 DEGREES WEST OF
HWY 281 AND UPPER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. FOR THE
WEEKEND...TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MOVE WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS DURING THE DAY BUT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS NOT IMPACTING THE CWA. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 105 TO 109 DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ARRIVING FOR SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THE WAVE...KEEPING PW VALUES NO HIGHER THAN 1.8 INCHES. WILL
HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WAITING FOR
MORE MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE BACKING OFF THE POP CHANCES.


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO ALTHOUGH BRIEF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY ON THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ON THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SURGE NW.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF WILL
REMAIN STRONG WITH SE WINDS PREVAILING. EXPECT BREEZE CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER WEDNESDAY AS THE
PG RELAXES. ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BY
SATURDAY RETURNING THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH FAIRLY LOW
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PRODUCE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TOMORROW. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE TOO HIGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DESPITE GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  83  96  82  96 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          81  97  80  97 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            81 100  79  99 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN              81 102  80 102 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      81 102  80 103 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   83  90  82  93 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/67








000
FXUS64 KBRO 171722
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1222 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THE PRIMARY
OPERATIONAL IMPACT TODAY WITH GUSTS 27 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND 24 TO 28 KNOTS INLAND EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL STAY PERSISTENT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY. WITH DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE HIGH CIRRUS INCLUDED IN THE PREVIOUS TAFS HAS
CLEARED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FEET
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CEILINGS
SHOULD RISE AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AFTER SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH A FEW CLOUDS REMAINING.
VFR/MVFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. SURFACE WINDS HAVE REMAINED STRONG ENOUGH
TO PREVENT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT FOG...NOT THAT ANY WAS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST OR ANTICIPATED ANYWAY.

TODAY...500 MB TROUGHINESS WILL EXIST OVER MOST OF THE LONE STAR
STATE...IN BETWEEN 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BOTH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA AND BAHAMAS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MOST RECENT KBRO UPPER
AIR SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.6 INCHES...
AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. THUS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
RULE WITHIN THE BRO CWFA. ADJUSTED INHERITED HIGH TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE APPEARED-TOO-COOL EASTERN PORTION OF THE BRO
CWFA...AND WITH A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN MFE OF 104 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO COOL BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS...SOMETHING FOR THE INCOMING SHIFT
TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EASTERN 500 MB HIGH NOSES EVER SO SLIGHTLY
WEST...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
MOVE CLOSER TO 2 INCHES DUE TO A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING
UP FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORM
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. INCREASED INHERITED LOW TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE BASED ON
TRENDS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WANE A BIT OFFSHORE...BUT REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW INLAND...LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO EXPECTED SUNDAY HIGHS...AND MAY
NEED TO BE BUMPED UP DEPENDING ON WHAT IS OBSERVED ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WESTERN RIDGE WILL BE
TRANSITING EAST...MERGING WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE TAKING UP
RESIDENCE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LITTLE TO NO
AGITATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...EXCEPT FOR
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE RACING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY. THE
WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE VALLEY. WITH THE
ONLY FOCUSING MECHANISM BEING THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...WILL KEEP
SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF A REPEAT THURSDAY ON THE BACK END OF THE WAVE.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ARRIVING FOR SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE WAVE...KEEPING PW
VALUES NO HIGHER THAN 1.8 INCHES. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WAITING FOR MORE MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY BEFORE BACKING OFF THE POP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TO THE UPPER 90S EAST TO NEAR 105 WEST...WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 21 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER
4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS
MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR
THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TONIGHT...AND FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH WINDS AT LEAST 15 KNOTS EACH DAY. SEAS
WILL BE RISING TO 4 TO 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY...WITH SOME ADVISORIES BECOMING MORE LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LAGUNA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  83  95  82  96 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          81  96  80  97 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            81  99  79  99 /   0   0  10   0
MCALLEN              81 101  80 102 /   0   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      81 101  80 103 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   83  89  82  93 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/67






000
FXUS64 KBRO 171722
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1222 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THE PRIMARY
OPERATIONAL IMPACT TODAY WITH GUSTS 27 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND 24 TO 28 KNOTS INLAND EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL STAY PERSISTENT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY. WITH DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE HIGH CIRRUS INCLUDED IN THE PREVIOUS TAFS HAS
CLEARED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FEET
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CEILINGS
SHOULD RISE AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AFTER SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH A FEW CLOUDS REMAINING.
VFR/MVFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. SURFACE WINDS HAVE REMAINED STRONG ENOUGH
TO PREVENT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT FOG...NOT THAT ANY WAS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST OR ANTICIPATED ANYWAY.

TODAY...500 MB TROUGHINESS WILL EXIST OVER MOST OF THE LONE STAR
STATE...IN BETWEEN 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BOTH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA AND BAHAMAS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MOST RECENT KBRO UPPER
AIR SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.6 INCHES...
AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. THUS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
RULE WITHIN THE BRO CWFA. ADJUSTED INHERITED HIGH TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE APPEARED-TOO-COOL EASTERN PORTION OF THE BRO
CWFA...AND WITH A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN MFE OF 104 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO COOL BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS...SOMETHING FOR THE INCOMING SHIFT
TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EASTERN 500 MB HIGH NOSES EVER SO SLIGHTLY
WEST...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
MOVE CLOSER TO 2 INCHES DUE TO A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING
UP FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORM
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. INCREASED INHERITED LOW TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE BASED ON
TRENDS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WANE A BIT OFFSHORE...BUT REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW INLAND...LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO EXPECTED SUNDAY HIGHS...AND MAY
NEED TO BE BUMPED UP DEPENDING ON WHAT IS OBSERVED ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WESTERN RIDGE WILL BE
TRANSITING EAST...MERGING WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE TAKING UP
RESIDENCE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LITTLE TO NO
AGITATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...EXCEPT FOR
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE RACING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY. THE
WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE VALLEY. WITH THE
ONLY FOCUSING MECHANISM BEING THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...WILL KEEP
SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF A REPEAT THURSDAY ON THE BACK END OF THE WAVE.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ARRIVING FOR SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE WAVE...KEEPING PW
VALUES NO HIGHER THAN 1.8 INCHES. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WAITING FOR MORE MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY BEFORE BACKING OFF THE POP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TO THE UPPER 90S EAST TO NEAR 105 WEST...WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 21 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER
4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS
MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR
THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TONIGHT...AND FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH WINDS AT LEAST 15 KNOTS EACH DAY. SEAS
WILL BE RISING TO 4 TO 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY...WITH SOME ADVISORIES BECOMING MORE LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LAGUNA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  83  95  82  96 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          81  96  80  97 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            81  99  79  99 /   0   0  10   0
MCALLEN              81 101  80 102 /   0   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      81 101  80 103 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   83  89  82  93 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/67







000
FXUS64 KBRO 171126 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
626 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...THE HIGH CIRRUS INCLUDED IN THE PREVIOUS TAFS HAS
CLEARED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FEET
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CEILINGS
SHOULD RISE AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AFTER SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH A FEW CLOUDS REMAINING.
VFR/MVFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. SURFACE WINDS HAVE REMAINED STRONG ENOUGH
TO PREVENT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT FOG...NOT THAT ANY WAS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST OR ANTICIPATED ANYWAY.

TODAY...500 MB TROUGHINESS WILL EXIST OVER MOST OF THE LONE STAR
STATE...IN BETWEEN 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BOTH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA AND BAHAMAS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MOST RECENT KBRO UPPER
AIR SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.6 INCHES...
AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. THUS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
RULE WITHIN THE BRO CWFA. ADJUSTED INHERITED HIGH TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE APPEARED-TOO-COOL EASTERN PORTION OF THE BRO
CWFA...AND WITH A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN MFE OF 104 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO COOL BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS...SOMETHING FOR THE INCOMING SHIFT
TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EASTERN 500 MB HIGH NOSES EVER SO SLIGHTLY
WEST...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
MOVE CLOSER TO 2 INCHES DUE TO A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING
UP FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORM
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. INCREASED INHERITED LOW TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE BASED ON
TRENDS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WANE A BIT OFFSHORE...BUT REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW INLAND...LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO EXPECTED SUNDAY HIGHS...AND MAY
NEED TO BE BUMPED UP DEPENDING ON WHAT IS OBSERVED ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WESTERN RIDGE WILL BE
TRANSITING EAST...MERGING WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE TAKING UP
RESIDENCE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LITTLE TO NO
AGITATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...EXCEPT FOR
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE RACING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY. THE
WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE VALLEY. WITH THE
ONLY FOCUSING MECHANISM BEING THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...WILL KEEP
SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF A REPEAT THURSDAY ON THE BACK END OF THE WAVE.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ARRIVING FOR SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE WAVE...KEEPING PW
VALUES NO HIGHER THAN 1.8 INCHES. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WAITING FOR MORE MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY BEFORE BACKING OFF THE POP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TO THE UPPER 90S EAST TO NEAR 105 WEST...WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 21 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER
4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS
MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR
THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TONIGHT...AND FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH WINDS AT LEAST 15 KNOTS EACH DAY. SEAS
WILL BE RISING TO 4 TO 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY...WITH SOME ADVISORIES BECOMING MORE LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LAGUNA.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KBRO 171126 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
626 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...THE HIGH CIRRUS INCLUDED IN THE PREVIOUS TAFS HAS
CLEARED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FEET
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CEILINGS
SHOULD RISE AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AFTER SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH A FEW CLOUDS REMAINING.
VFR/MVFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. SURFACE WINDS HAVE REMAINED STRONG ENOUGH
TO PREVENT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT FOG...NOT THAT ANY WAS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST OR ANTICIPATED ANYWAY.

TODAY...500 MB TROUGHINESS WILL EXIST OVER MOST OF THE LONE STAR
STATE...IN BETWEEN 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BOTH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA AND BAHAMAS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MOST RECENT KBRO UPPER
AIR SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.6 INCHES...
AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. THUS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
RULE WITHIN THE BRO CWFA. ADJUSTED INHERITED HIGH TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE APPEARED-TOO-COOL EASTERN PORTION OF THE BRO
CWFA...AND WITH A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN MFE OF 104 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO COOL BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS...SOMETHING FOR THE INCOMING SHIFT
TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EASTERN 500 MB HIGH NOSES EVER SO SLIGHTLY
WEST...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
MOVE CLOSER TO 2 INCHES DUE TO A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING
UP FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORM
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. INCREASED INHERITED LOW TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE BASED ON
TRENDS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WANE A BIT OFFSHORE...BUT REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW INLAND...LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO EXPECTED SUNDAY HIGHS...AND MAY
NEED TO BE BUMPED UP DEPENDING ON WHAT IS OBSERVED ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WESTERN RIDGE WILL BE
TRANSITING EAST...MERGING WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE TAKING UP
RESIDENCE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LITTLE TO NO
AGITATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...EXCEPT FOR
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE RACING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY. THE
WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE VALLEY. WITH THE
ONLY FOCUSING MECHANISM BEING THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...WILL KEEP
SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF A REPEAT THURSDAY ON THE BACK END OF THE WAVE.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ARRIVING FOR SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE WAVE...KEEPING PW
VALUES NO HIGHER THAN 1.8 INCHES. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WAITING FOR MORE MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY BEFORE BACKING OFF THE POP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TO THE UPPER 90S EAST TO NEAR 105 WEST...WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 21 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER
4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS
MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR
THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TONIGHT...AND FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH WINDS AT LEAST 15 KNOTS EACH DAY. SEAS
WILL BE RISING TO 4 TO 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY...WITH SOME ADVISORIES BECOMING MORE LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LAGUNA.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV






000
FXUS64 KBRO 170850
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
350 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. SURFACE WINDS HAVE REMAINED STRONG ENOUGH
TO PREVENT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT FOG...NOT THAT ANY WAS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST OR ANTICIPATED ANYWAY.

TODAY...500 MB TROUGHINESS WILL EXIST OVER MOST OF THE LONE STAR
STATE...IN BETWEEN 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BOTH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA AND BAHAMAS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MOST RECENT KBRO UPPER
AIR SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.6 INCHES...
AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. THUS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
RULE WITHIN THE BRO CWFA. ADJUSTED INHERITED HIGH TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE APPEARED-TOO-COOL EASTERN PORTION OF THE BRO
CWFA...AND WITH A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN MFE OF 104 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO COOL BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS...SOMETHING FOR THE INCOMING SHIFT
TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EASTERN 500 MB HIGH NOSES EVER SO SLIGHTLY
WEST...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
MOVE CLOSER TO 2 INCHES DUE TO A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING
UP FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORM
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. INCREASED INHERITED LOW TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE BASED ON
TRENDS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WANE A BIT OFFSHORE...BUT REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW INLAND...LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO EXPECTED SUNDAY HIGHS...AND MAY
NEED TO BE BUMPED UP DEPENDING ON WHAT IS OBSERVED ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WESTERN RIDGE WILL BE
TRANSITING EAST...MERGING WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE TAKING UP
RESIDENCE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LITTLE TO NO
AGITATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...EXCEPT FOR
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE RACING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY. THE
WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE VALLEY. WITH THE
ONLY FOCUSING MECHANISM BEING THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...WILL KEEP
SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF A REPEAT THURSDAY ON THE BACK END OF THE WAVE.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ARRIVING FOR SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE WAVE...KEEPING PW
VALUES NO HIGHER THAN 1.8 INCHES. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WAITING FOR MORE MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY BEFORE BACKING OFF THE POP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TO THE UPPER 90S EAST TO NEAR 105 WEST...WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110.


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 21 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER
4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS
MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR
THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TONIGHT...AND FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH WINDS AT LEAST 15 KNOTS EACH DAY. SEAS
WILL BE RISING TO 4 TO 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY...WITH SOME ADVISORIES BECOMING MORE LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LAGUNA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  82  95  82 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          97  80  96  80 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN           100  80  99  79 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN             101  80 101  80 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     101  80 101  80 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   90  82  91  82 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

66/64






000
FXUS64 KBRO 170850
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
350 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. SURFACE WINDS HAVE REMAINED STRONG ENOUGH
TO PREVENT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT FOG...NOT THAT ANY WAS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST OR ANTICIPATED ANYWAY.

TODAY...500 MB TROUGHINESS WILL EXIST OVER MOST OF THE LONE STAR
STATE...IN BETWEEN 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BOTH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA AND BAHAMAS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MOST RECENT KBRO UPPER
AIR SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.6 INCHES...
AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. THUS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
RULE WITHIN THE BRO CWFA. ADJUSTED INHERITED HIGH TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE APPEARED-TOO-COOL EASTERN PORTION OF THE BRO
CWFA...AND WITH A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN MFE OF 104 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO COOL BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS...SOMETHING FOR THE INCOMING SHIFT
TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EASTERN 500 MB HIGH NOSES EVER SO SLIGHTLY
WEST...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
MOVE CLOSER TO 2 INCHES DUE TO A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING
UP FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORM
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. INCREASED INHERITED LOW TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE BASED ON
TRENDS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WANE A BIT OFFSHORE...BUT REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW INLAND...LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO EXPECTED SUNDAY HIGHS...AND MAY
NEED TO BE BUMPED UP DEPENDING ON WHAT IS OBSERVED ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WESTERN RIDGE WILL BE
TRANSITING EAST...MERGING WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE TAKING UP
RESIDENCE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LITTLE TO NO
AGITATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...EXCEPT FOR
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE RACING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY. THE
WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE VALLEY. WITH THE
ONLY FOCUSING MECHANISM BEING THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...WILL KEEP
SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF A REPEAT THURSDAY ON THE BACK END OF THE WAVE.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ARRIVING FOR SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE WAVE...KEEPING PW
VALUES NO HIGHER THAN 1.8 INCHES. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WAITING FOR MORE MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY BEFORE BACKING OFF THE POP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TO THE UPPER 90S EAST TO NEAR 105 WEST...WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110.


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 21 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER
4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS
MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR
THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TONIGHT...AND FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH WINDS AT LEAST 15 KNOTS EACH DAY. SEAS
WILL BE RISING TO 4 TO 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY...WITH SOME ADVISORIES BECOMING MORE LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LAGUNA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  82  95  82 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          97  80  96  80 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN           100  80  99  79 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN             101  80 101  80 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     101  80 101  80 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   90  82  91  82 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

66/64







000
FXUS64 KBRO 170539 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1239 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CIRRUS IS WAFTING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
MODERATE LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOMORROW...VFR WILL
PREVAIL AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN BECOME BREEZY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS
IN PLACE. CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO RIGHT NOW ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

MARINE...WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 19 KNOTS WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET PER
BRO VAD WIND PROFILE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MARGINALLY SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SO DECIDED TO HOIST A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH 4 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT BRO/HRL...AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT MFE
OVERNIGHT COURTESY OF A LOW LEVEL JET /30 TO 35 KNOTS/ ACROSS THE
REGION. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT HEAT
INDICES RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...SINCE HEAT INDICES HAVE FALLEN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA...THE HEAT ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES INTO HIDALGO COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. ALL UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR DEPICTS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. RIDGING STRETCHED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS
ACROSS US AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST CONUS. A S/W
TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND PROVIDE A
`WEAKNESS` IN BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A MINOR
WAVE WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS AND PROVIDE A
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA BUT
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA.

LEE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST IN NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS. STRONGER WINDS TODAY (GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH)
WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING AFTER
SUNSET. 925MB WINDS STRENGTHEN OVER NIGHT WITH A SWATH OF 40 KNOT
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE
WILL MIX DOWN SUNDAY AND OFFER A LITTLE STRONGER WINDS COMPARED TO
TODAY ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA. BELIEVE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER VALLEY WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
STRONGEST. 25-30 MPH GUSTS LOOK COMMON ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

ISSUED HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES PLUS HIDALGO COUNTY
EARLIER THIS MORNING THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT. AFTER LOOKING AT 12Z
DATA...STILL BELIEVE ISOLATED AREAS WILL MEET CRITERIA BUT MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THOUGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED A LITTLE
LOWER THAN FORECAST AND THAT MAY BE THE DIFFERENCE FOR MEETING THE
CRITERIA. NEVERTHELESS...STILL WILL BE HOT AND MUGGY THIS AFTERNOON
AND FOLKS SHOULD STILL TAKE HEAT PRECAUTIONS (FREQUENT
BREAKS...HYDRATE...SEEK SHADE...ETC). HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OF EXCEED
100 DEGREES ACROSS A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
BE COMPARABLE TO TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS A TICK LOWER WHICH WILL
PRECLUDE AN ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW.  /55/

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM...OUR AREA REMAINS JUXTAPOSED BETWEEN
TWO CENTERS OF RIDGING.  ONE CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS...WHILE THE OTHER WAS ESSENTIALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE RIDGES (FOR LACK OF A BETTER TERM) IS
EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD
MID-WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING TO AMPLIFY ACROSS OUR REGION AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD...AND LARGELY MERGES WITH
RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

SO...IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY...DESPITE
THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALMOST OVERHEAD.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A RELATIVELY DRY PROFILE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO BE JUST SHY OF NORMAL FOR
AUGUST.  A BIG STORY WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE HEAT...AS AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 110 DEGREES OR SO.  A CONTINUED STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO ALLOW BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

THINGS MAY START TO CHANGE A BIT BY MID-WEEK THOUGH...AS A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE STARTS TO HEAD OUR WAY.  AN INCREASE
IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  RIGHT NOW...EVEN WITH SLIGHTLY
(EMPHASIS ON SLIGHTLY) BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS WE HEAD TOWARD
NEXT WEEKEND...THANKS TO A PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY RISE TOWARD THE 2 INCH MARK
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES OF 3000 JOULES/KG
(GIVE-OR-TAKE) ACROSS THE VALLEY IN A LARGELY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
WITH WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO BACK SLIGHTLY...A
MORE ACTIVE SEABREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WE COULD SEE A BETTER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  FOR NOW...I WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE AND KEEP PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN SLIGHT CHANCE
TERRITORY...WITH A GREATER COVERAGE OFFSHORE.  /53/

MARINE...

NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE UP FOR ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT OVER THE LAGUNA ENOUGH TO DROP SCEC BY
LATE EVENING. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN OR SLIGHTLY INCREASE ON THE
OFFSHORE WATERS TO CONTINUE SCEC CONDITIONS. A REPEAT OF TODAY IS IN
STORE FOR SUNDAY. /55/

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A PERSISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WORKWEEK.  SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE...WITH SEAS GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND 4 FEET.  PRIMARY
WAVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 5 TO 6 SECONDS.  /53/
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV






000
FXUS64 KBRO 170539 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1239 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CIRRUS IS WAFTING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
MODERATE LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOMORROW...VFR WILL
PREVAIL AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN BECOME BREEZY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS
IN PLACE. CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO RIGHT NOW ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

MARINE...WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 19 KNOTS WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET PER
BRO VAD WIND PROFILE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MARGINALLY SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SO DECIDED TO HOIST A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH 4 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT BRO/HRL...AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT MFE
OVERNIGHT COURTESY OF A LOW LEVEL JET /30 TO 35 KNOTS/ ACROSS THE
REGION. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT HEAT
INDICES RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...SINCE HEAT INDICES HAVE FALLEN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA...THE HEAT ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES INTO HIDALGO COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. ALL UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR DEPICTS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. RIDGING STRETCHED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS
ACROSS US AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST CONUS. A S/W
TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND PROVIDE A
`WEAKNESS` IN BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A MINOR
WAVE WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS AND PROVIDE A
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA BUT
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA.

LEE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST IN NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS. STRONGER WINDS TODAY (GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH)
WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING AFTER
SUNSET. 925MB WINDS STRENGTHEN OVER NIGHT WITH A SWATH OF 40 KNOT
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE
WILL MIX DOWN SUNDAY AND OFFER A LITTLE STRONGER WINDS COMPARED TO
TODAY ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA. BELIEVE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER VALLEY WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
STRONGEST. 25-30 MPH GUSTS LOOK COMMON ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

ISSUED HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES PLUS HIDALGO COUNTY
EARLIER THIS MORNING THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT. AFTER LOOKING AT 12Z
DATA...STILL BELIEVE ISOLATED AREAS WILL MEET CRITERIA BUT MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THOUGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED A LITTLE
LOWER THAN FORECAST AND THAT MAY BE THE DIFFERENCE FOR MEETING THE
CRITERIA. NEVERTHELESS...STILL WILL BE HOT AND MUGGY THIS AFTERNOON
AND FOLKS SHOULD STILL TAKE HEAT PRECAUTIONS (FREQUENT
BREAKS...HYDRATE...SEEK SHADE...ETC). HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OF EXCEED
100 DEGREES ACROSS A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
BE COMPARABLE TO TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS A TICK LOWER WHICH WILL
PRECLUDE AN ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW.  /55/

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM...OUR AREA REMAINS JUXTAPOSED BETWEEN
TWO CENTERS OF RIDGING.  ONE CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS...WHILE THE OTHER WAS ESSENTIALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE RIDGES (FOR LACK OF A BETTER TERM) IS
EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD
MID-WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING TO AMPLIFY ACROSS OUR REGION AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD...AND LARGELY MERGES WITH
RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

SO...IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY...DESPITE
THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALMOST OVERHEAD.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A RELATIVELY DRY PROFILE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO BE JUST SHY OF NORMAL FOR
AUGUST.  A BIG STORY WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE HEAT...AS AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 110 DEGREES OR SO.  A CONTINUED STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO ALLOW BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

THINGS MAY START TO CHANGE A BIT BY MID-WEEK THOUGH...AS A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE STARTS TO HEAD OUR WAY.  AN INCREASE
IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  RIGHT NOW...EVEN WITH SLIGHTLY
(EMPHASIS ON SLIGHTLY) BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS WE HEAD TOWARD
NEXT WEEKEND...THANKS TO A PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY RISE TOWARD THE 2 INCH MARK
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES OF 3000 JOULES/KG
(GIVE-OR-TAKE) ACROSS THE VALLEY IN A LARGELY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
WITH WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO BACK SLIGHTLY...A
MORE ACTIVE SEABREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WE COULD SEE A BETTER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  FOR NOW...I WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE AND KEEP PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN SLIGHT CHANCE
TERRITORY...WITH A GREATER COVERAGE OFFSHORE.  /53/

MARINE...

NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE UP FOR ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT OVER THE LAGUNA ENOUGH TO DROP SCEC BY
LATE EVENING. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN OR SLIGHTLY INCREASE ON THE
OFFSHORE WATERS TO CONTINUE SCEC CONDITIONS. A REPEAT OF TODAY IS IN
STORE FOR SUNDAY. /55/

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A PERSISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WORKWEEK.  SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE...WITH SEAS GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND 4 FEET.  PRIMARY
WAVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 5 TO 6 SECONDS.  /53/
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities