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000
FXUS64 KBRO 230544
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1244 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVER DEEP S
TX. DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS...PATCHY GROUND FOG IS
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE MAINLY OVER KMFE AND LOCATIONS WESTWARD
WHERE WINDS COULD BECOME COMPLETELY CALM. AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...LESS CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED BUT STILL SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP
SOME SCT CUMULUS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE LACKING
FOR FOG BUT WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT DID
ADD A MENTION OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT MFE...AND WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORING OVER SOUTHERN CAMERON COUNTY WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL FELL EARLIER TODAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE PREVAILING TOMORROW POSSIBLY MUDDIED
THROUGH 14/15Z IF FOG FORMATION IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN FORECAST.
/68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500 MB FIELDS SHOW AN
ELONGATED TROUGH DIGGING OVER WEST TX AND NORTHWEST MEXICO TODAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL TX LATER TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY
TOMORROW. THIS WOULD BE A CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL CONV IF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS WOULD HOLD IN PLACE. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM GUIDANCE SHOW DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE STRONG
ISOLD CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DIED OUT OVER
SOUTHERN CAMERON COUNTY. KBRO RADAR SHOWS SCT CONV FIRING SOUTH OF
THE RIVER MOVING WEST OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. LAPS CAPE DATA SHOWS
SOME DECENT INSTABILITY REMAINING POOLED JUST OVER THE RGV AND
EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF COASTLINE OF MEXICO. SO
ISOLD CONV WILL STILL BE A THREAT FOR THE RGV THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO SOME LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTION. WILL THEN GO NEAR ZERO POPS FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
EVENING IN LINE WITH MAV AND MET NUMBERS.

THE WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
COOLER NIGHTTIME LOWS AS THE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS DROP OFF. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO AS DIURNAL HEATING WILL TEND TO WARM UP
TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON PRETTY NICELY.

WILL INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND
CLEARER SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL EFFECTS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WEST TEXAS FRIDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS
TEXAS SATURDAY THEN BE FLATTENED SOMEWHAT SUNDAY INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY AND EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AND LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND CAPPED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE CFW FOR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES REMAIN PRETTY HIGH FOR THE SPI JETTIES. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF TD NINE...THE OLD STATIONARY
FRONT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE STRONG PGF
WILL THEN START TO WEAKEN LATE TOMORROW WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW
THE ELEVATED GULF SWELLS TO DECREASE. REPORTS FROM BUOY020
CURRENTLY SHOW THE GULF CONDITIONS HOLDING IN SCEC CRITERIA. SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SCA CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. NO SCEC OR SCA NEEDED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61








000
FXUS64 KBRO 222325 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
625 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE LACKING
FOR FOG BUT WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT DID
ADD A MENTION OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT MFE...AND WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORING OVER SOUTHERN CAMERON COUNTY WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL FELL EARLIER TODAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE PREVAILING TOMORROW POSSIBLY MUDDIED
THROUGH 14/15Z IF FOG FORMATION IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN FORECAST.
/68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500 MB FIELDS SHOW AN
ELONGATED TROUGH DIGGING OVER WEST TX AND NORTHWEST MEXICO TODAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL TX LATER TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY
TOMORROW. THIS WOULD BE A CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL CONV IF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS WOULD HOLD IN PLACE. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM GUIDANCE SHOW DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE STRONG
ISOLD CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DIED OUT OVER
SOUTHERN CAMERON COUNTY. KBRO RADAR SHOWS SCT CONV FIRING SOUTH OF
THE RIVER MOVING WEST OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. LAPS CAPE DATA SHOWS
SOME DECENT INSTABILITY REMAINING POOLED JUST OVER THE RGV AND
EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF COASTLINE OF MEXICO. SO
ISOLD CONV WILL STILL BE A THREAT FOR THE RGV THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO SOME LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTION. WILL THEN GO NEAR ZERO POPS FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
EVENING IN LINE WITH MAV AND MET NUMBERS.

THE WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
COOLER NIGHTTIME LOWS AS THE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS DROP OFF. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO AS DIURNAL HEATING WILL TEND TO WARM UP
TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON PRETTY NICELY.

WILL INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND
CLEARER SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL EFFECTS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WEST TEXAS FRIDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS
TEXAS SATURDAY THEN BE FLATTENED SOMEWHAT SUNDAY INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY AND EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AND LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND CAPPED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE CFW FOR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES REMAIN PRETTY HIGH FOR THE SPI JETTIES. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF TD NINE...THE OLD STATIONARY
FRONT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE STRONG PGF
WILL THEN START TO WEAKEN LATE TOMORROW WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW
THE ELEVATED GULF SWELLS TO DECREASE. REPORTS FROM BUOY020
CURRENTLY SHOW THE GULF CONDITIONS HOLDING IN SCEC CRITERIA. SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SCA CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. NO SCEC OR SCA NEEDED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/59








000
FXUS64 KBRO 221958
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500 MB FIELDS SHOW AN
ELONGATED TROUGH DIGGING OVER WEST TX AND NORTHWEST MEXICO TODAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL TX LATER TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY
TOMORROW. THIS WOULD BE A CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL CONV IF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS WOULD HOLD IN PLACE. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM GUIDANCE SHOW DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE STRONG
ISOLD CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DIED OUT OVER
SOUTHERN CAMERON COUNTY. KBRO RADAR SHOWS SCT CONV FIRING SOUTH OF
THE RIVER MOVING WEST OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. LAPS CAPE DATA SHOWS
SOME DECENT INSTABILITY REMAINING POOLED JUST OVER THE RGV AND
EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF COASTLINE OF MEXICO. SO
ISOLD CONV WILL STILL BE A THREAT FOR THE RGV THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO SOME LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTION. WILL THEN GO NEAR ZERO POPS FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
EVENING IN LINE WITH MAV AND MET NUMBERS.

THE WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
COOLER NIGHTTIME LOWS AS THE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS DROP OFF. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO AS DIURNAL HEATING WILL TEND TO WARM UP
TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON PRETTY NICELY.

WILL INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND
CLEARER SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL EFFECTS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WEST TEXAS FRIDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS
TEXAS SATURDAY THEN BE FLATTENED SOMEWHAT SUNDAY INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY AND EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AND LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND CAPPED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE CFW FOR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES REMAIN PRETTY HIGH FOR THE SPI JETTIES. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF TD NINE...THE OLD STATIONARY
FRONT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE STRONG PGF
WILL THEN START TO WEAKEN LATE TOMORROW WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW
THE ELEVATED GULF SWELLS TO DECREASE. REPORTS FROM BUOY020
CURRENTLY SHOW THE GULF CONDITIONS HOLDING IN SCEC CRITERIA. SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SCA CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. NO SCEC OR SCA NEEDED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  72  83  69  83 /  20  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          69  84  68  84 /  20  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            68  84  65  84 /  20  10  10   0
MCALLEN              69  86  66  86 /  20  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      67  87  65  87 /  20  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  82  73  83 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 221846 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
146 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE STRONG CONVECTION FOR EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
DIED OUT OVER CAMERON COUNTY. KBRO RADAR SHOWS SCT CONV FIRING
SOUTH OF THE RIVER MOVING WEST OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. LAPS CAPE
DATA SHOWS SOME DECENT INSTABILITY REMAIN POOLED JUST OVER THE
RGV AND EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF COASTLINE OF MEXICO.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS GRADUALLY ERODE AWAY THE DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE VALUES OVER DEEP SOUTH TX FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A DRIER
LOW LEVEL FLOW BUILDS IN FROM NORTH. ISOLD CONV WILL STILL BE A
THREAT FOR THE LOWER RGV AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO MENTION
ANY TEMPO OR PROB30 GROUPS. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SOME VCSH
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIODS. VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME DECENT CU FIELDS LINGERING OVER THE AREA AS THE DAYTIME
HEATING INTERACTS WITH THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE VALUES OVER THE AREA.
THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS CLOSE TO KBRO WILL BE IMPACTING
THE TERMINAL WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS. MOST OF THE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED SOUTH OVER THE GULF WATERS. MENTIONED TEMPO
GROUP FOR THIS CONVECTION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY FROM THE EAST. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY
THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT NORTHEAST FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE CONCENTRATED SOUTHWARD AND A DRY AIRMASS TOWARDS N
TEXAS. MEANWHILE...IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMS A TROUGH ACROSS
THE DESERT SW LIFTS NE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9
OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NE OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL KEEP A WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK GRADIENT AT
THE SURFACE WHICH IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.
THE EASTERLY FLOW WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AS OF THE 00Z KBRO SOUNDING INDICATED 2.0 INCHES. GFS
STILL SHOWS IN THE MID LAYERS DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE OF AROUND 70
PERCENT AVAILABLE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
EXPECT 30 PERCENT CHANCE RIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE MID TO LOW
80S WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A GRADUAL NORTHEAST DRY AIR FILTERING
INTO THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL COUNTIES TONIGHT. STILL DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MIGRATE WEST
SO THERE STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
AND FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE VALLEY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY WITH MORE OF THE DRY AIR MASS ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE CWA. STILL SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL AID FOR MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW AREAS COULD
SEE PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY FROM BROOKS
COUNTY TO NORTHERN HIDALGO. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE
MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE CWA AND LOW 70S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DRIER AIR IS NOTED ALOFT IN THE BUFF SOUNDING AND
CROSS SECTIONS WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LINGERING ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS BUT NO
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE MID
80S ACROSS THE CWA WITH A MORE NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH OUT THE DAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THURS NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD FRIDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EVEN AS A LONGWAVE 500MB TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PROVIDE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A CAP ON
ANY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TX TUESDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...BUOY020 HOLDS STEADY SCEC CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS GUSTING
CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS. EXPECT THIS SAME PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS WE KEEP
AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TODAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 OVER NORTHEAST
BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH REALLY VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS KEEPING
AN EASTERLY FETCH AND MODERATE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. DO NOT
EXPECT SCA AT THIS TIME...AS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL SOON MOVE
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
TROPICAL STORM KEPT WINDS AND SEAS MODERATE FOR TODAY. ON THURSDAY...
WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NE AND
FILTERING DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. THERE IS A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT AS THE SWELLS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY COMBINED WITH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. THIS COULD PRODUCE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. BY THURSDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  72  85  71  83 /  20  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          70  86  69  83 /  20  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            67  86  68  84 /  20  10  10   0
MCALLEN              66  88  67  86 /  20  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      67  86  67  87 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  84  73  81 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 221159
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
659 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS CLOSE TO KBRO WILL BE IMPACTING
THE TERMINAL WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS. MOST OF THE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED SOUTH OVER THE GULF WATERS. MENTIONED TEMPO
GROUP FOR THIS CONVECTION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY FROM THE EAST. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY
THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT NORTHEAST FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE CONCENTRATED SOUTHWARD AND A DRY AIRMASS TOWARDS N
TEXAS. MEANWHILE...IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMS A TROUGH ACROSS
THE DESERT SW LIFTS NE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9
OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NE OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL KEEP A WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK GRADIENT AT
THE SURFACE WHICH IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.
THE EASTERLY FLOW WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AS OF THE 00Z KBRO SOUNDING INDICATED 2.0 INCHES. GFS
STILL SHOWS IN THE MID LAYERS DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE OF AROUND 70
PERCENT AVAILABLE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
EXPECT 30 PERCENT CHANCE RIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE MID TO LOW
80S WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A GRADUAL NORTHEAST DRY AIR FILTERING
INTO THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL COUNTIES TONIGHT. STILL DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MIGRATE WEST
SO THERE STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
AND FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE VALLEY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY WITH MORE OF THE DRY AIR MASS ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE CWA. STILL SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL AID FOR MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW AREAS COULD
SEE PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY FROM BROOKS
COUNTY TO NORTHERN HIDALGO. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE
MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE CWA AND LOW 70S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DRIER AIR IS NOTED ALOFT IN THE BUFF SOUNDING AND
CROSS SECTIONS WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LINGERING ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS BUT NO
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE MID
80S ACROSS THE CWA WITH A MORE NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH OUT THE DAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THURS NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD FRIDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EVEN AS A LONGWAVE 500MB TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PROVIDE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A CAP ON
ANY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TX TUESDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...BUOY020 HOLDS STEADY SCEC CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS GUSTING
CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS. EXPECT THIS SAME PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS WE KEEP
AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TODAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 OVER NORTHEAST
BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH REALLY VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS KEEPING
AN EASTERLY FETCH AND MODERATE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. DO NOT
EXPECT SCA AT THIS TIME...AS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL SOON MOVE
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
TROPICAL STORM KEPT WINDS AND SEAS MODERATE FOR TODAY. ON THURSDAY...
WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NE AND
FILTERING DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. THERE IS A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT AS THE SWELLS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY COMBINED WITH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. THIS COULD PRODUCE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. BY THURSDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/60








000
FXUS64 KBRO 220836
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
336 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE CONCENTRATED SOUTHWARD AND A DRY AIRMASS TOWARDS N
TEXAS. MEANWHILE...IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMS A TROUGH ACROSS
THE DESERT SW LIFTS NE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9
OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NE OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL KEEP A WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK GRADIENT AT
THE SURFACE WHICH IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.
THE EASTERLY FLOW WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AS OF THE 00Z KBRO SOUNDING INDICATED 2.0 INCHES. GFS
STILL SHOWS IN THE MID LAYERS DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE OF AROUND 70
PERCENT AVAILABLE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
EXPECT 30 PERCENT CHANCE RIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE MID TO LOW
80S WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A GRADUAL NORTHEAST DRY AIR FILTERING
INTO THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL COUNTIES TONIGHT. STILL DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MIGRATE WEST
SO THERE STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
AND FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE VALLEY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY WITH MORE OF THE DRY AIR MASS ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE CWA. STILL SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL AID FOR MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW AREAS COULD
SEE PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY FROM BROOKS
COUNTY TO NORTHERN HIDALGO. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE
MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE CWA AND LOW 70S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DRIER AIR IS NOTED ALOFT IN THE BUFF SOUNDING AND
CROSS SECTIONS WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LINGERING ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS BUT NO
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE MID
80S ACROSS THE CWA WITH A MORE NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH OUT THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THURS NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD FRIDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EVEN AS A LONGWAVE 500MB TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PROVIDE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A CAP ON
ANY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TX TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...BUOY020 HOLDS STEADY SCEC CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS GUSTING
CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS. EXPECT THIS SAME PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS WE KEEP
AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TODAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 OVER NORTHEAST
BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH REALLY VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS KEEPING
AN EASTERLY FETCH AND MODERATE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. DO NOT
EXPECT SCA AT THIS TIME...AS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL SOON MOVE
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
TROPICAL STORM KEPT WINDS AND SEAS MODERATE FOR TODAY. ON THURSDAY...
WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NE AND
FILTERING DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. THERE IS A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT AS THE SWELLS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY COMBINED WITH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. THIS COULD PRODUCE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. BY THURSDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  84  72  85  71 /  30  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          85  70  86  69 /  30  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  67  86  68 /  30  20  10  10
MCALLEN              84  66  88  67 /  30  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      86  67  86  67 /  30  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   84  75  84  73 /  30  20  10  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61








000
FXUS64 KBRO 220533
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1233 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE IN THE AREA COMBINED WITH
A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE
CLOUD LAYERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WEDNESDAY
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE WITH POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY IN KMFE AND KHRL. THE NORTHEAST WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. VCSH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THIS COULD
REDUCE VISIBILITIES WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND CEILINGS
LOWERING CLOSE TO MVFR LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...WEAK DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST TEXAS
MID LEVEL TROUGH ARE COMBINING WITH A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH SUBTLE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAINTAINING SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THE LAST FEW HOURS. SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM
THE GULF ARE LOW TOP AND ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY
FLOW UP TO 10K FEET. THE WESTERN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM MEXICO ARE
MOVING NORTHEAST DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME RECONFIGURING OF THE
POP PLACEMENT. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AS PWATS SURGED TO 2 INCHES THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WITH A CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW
TO MAINTAIN MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH
OCCASIONAL CIGS AND VSBY LOWERING TO MVFR WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
PROBABILITIES OF DOMINATE MVFR CIGS REMAIN LOW HOWEVER SOME CIGS
MAY APPROACH THE TOP END OF MVFR WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT
BETWEEN 2500-4000 FEET. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS PERSIST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...DEEP SOUTH TX
REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES TODAY. THE
FIRST BEING THE 500 MB SHORT WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE EL PASO AREA
AND THE BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
TX TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.

RELATIVELY HIGHER LAPS CAPE VALUES ARE INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO ALLOW FOR PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF MAINLY SHOWERS WITH FEW
ISOLD T-STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE BRO CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COVERAGE HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CONV
HAS ALSO BEEN HELPED ALONG BY SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ONGOING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN WEAKEN OUT
WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING AFTER SUNSET.

EXPECT ENOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED CAPE VALUES TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TOMORROW TO JUSTIFY SOME MENTION OF CONV THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN SLOWLY
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATER ON WED TO EVENTUALLY SHUT OFF THE
CONV POTENTIAL FOR THE RGV.

THE ECMWF IS THE WETTEST OF THE THREE MODEL SETS WITH THE MAV AND
MET COMING IN WITH LOWER POPS. WILL GO CLOSE TO THE ECMWF POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN LEAN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET BLEND LATER
TONIGHT INTO WED AND WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE MID SECTIONS OF THE CONUS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE FEATURE THIS FAR SOUTH
THAT WILL SPARK ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND DRY AIR IN THE
LOW AND MID LEVELS FURTHER LOWERS CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST FRIDAY
WHICH WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNDAY.
LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL TREK EASTWARD AS WELL WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING OUT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
KEEP A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS LOOK TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND MOIST SOILS...AM RELUCTANT TO GO ANY
HIGHER ON TEMPERATURES DESPITE A FEW MODELS WARMER THAN MY
FORECAST. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL OR A DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL.

MODELS DIVERGE BY SUNDAY REGARDING PROGRESSION OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. GFS IS WEAKER AND
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND
SLOWER. WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST AND NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
CONTINUING BUT ADD SILENT 10S TO THE AREA BASED ON THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 HAS BEEN HOLDING
CLOSE TO SCEC CRIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WINDS FROM 15G20KTS
WITH SWELLS FROM 5 TO 6 FEET. THE TIGHT PGF PERSISTING DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG AND
PERSISTENT FETCH OF ELEVATED GULF SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM. FOR NOW EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STAY CLOSE TO SCEC LEVELS
THROUGHOUT WED. SOME BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
GULF CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WILL POST A CFW TO CAUTION FOLKS OF THE
POTENTIAL OF BEACH RUNUP DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SETTLES
ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED AND NO SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61








000
FXUS64 KBRO 220533
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1233 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE IN THE AREA COMBINED WITH
A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE
CLOUD LAYERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WEDNESDAY
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE WITH POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY IN KMFE AND KHRL. THE NORTHEAST WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. VCSH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THIS COULD
REDUCE VISIBILITIES WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND CEILINGS
LOWERING CLOSE TO MVFR LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...WEAK DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST TEXAS
MID LEVEL TROUGH ARE COMBINING WITH A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH SUBTLE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAINTAINING SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THE LAST FEW HOURS. SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM
THE GULF ARE LOW TOP AND ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY
FLOW UP TO 10K FEET. THE WESTERN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM MEXICO ARE
MOVING NORTHEAST DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME RECONFIGURING OF THE
POP PLACEMENT. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AS PWATS SURGED TO 2 INCHES THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WITH A CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW
TO MAINTAIN MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH
OCCASIONAL CIGS AND VSBY LOWERING TO MVFR WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
PROBABILITIES OF DOMINATE MVFR CIGS REMAIN LOW HOWEVER SOME CIGS
MAY APPROACH THE TOP END OF MVFR WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT
BETWEEN 2500-4000 FEET. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS PERSIST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...DEEP SOUTH TX
REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES TODAY. THE
FIRST BEING THE 500 MB SHORT WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE EL PASO AREA
AND THE BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
TX TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.

RELATIVELY HIGHER LAPS CAPE VALUES ARE INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO ALLOW FOR PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF MAINLY SHOWERS WITH FEW
ISOLD T-STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE BRO CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COVERAGE HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CONV
HAS ALSO BEEN HELPED ALONG BY SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ONGOING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN WEAKEN OUT
WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING AFTER SUNSET.

EXPECT ENOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED CAPE VALUES TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TOMORROW TO JUSTIFY SOME MENTION OF CONV THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN SLOWLY
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATER ON WED TO EVENTUALLY SHUT OFF THE
CONV POTENTIAL FOR THE RGV.

THE ECMWF IS THE WETTEST OF THE THREE MODEL SETS WITH THE MAV AND
MET COMING IN WITH LOWER POPS. WILL GO CLOSE TO THE ECMWF POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN LEAN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET BLEND LATER
TONIGHT INTO WED AND WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE MID SECTIONS OF THE CONUS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE FEATURE THIS FAR SOUTH
THAT WILL SPARK ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND DRY AIR IN THE
LOW AND MID LEVELS FURTHER LOWERS CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST FRIDAY
WHICH WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNDAY.
LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL TREK EASTWARD AS WELL WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING OUT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
KEEP A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS LOOK TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND MOIST SOILS...AM RELUCTANT TO GO ANY
HIGHER ON TEMPERATURES DESPITE A FEW MODELS WARMER THAN MY
FORECAST. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL OR A DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL.

MODELS DIVERGE BY SUNDAY REGARDING PROGRESSION OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. GFS IS WEAKER AND
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND
SLOWER. WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST AND NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
CONTINUING BUT ADD SILENT 10S TO THE AREA BASED ON THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 HAS BEEN HOLDING
CLOSE TO SCEC CRIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WINDS FROM 15G20KTS
WITH SWELLS FROM 5 TO 6 FEET. THE TIGHT PGF PERSISTING DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG AND
PERSISTENT FETCH OF ELEVATED GULF SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM. FOR NOW EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STAY CLOSE TO SCEC LEVELS
THROUGHOUT WED. SOME BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
GULF CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WILL POST A CFW TO CAUTION FOLKS OF THE
POTENTIAL OF BEACH RUNUP DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SETTLES
ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED AND NO SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61








000
FXUS64 KBRO 220200
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
900 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...WEAK DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST TEXAS
MID LEVEL TROUGH ARE COMBINING WITH A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH SUBTLE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAINTAINING SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THE LAST FEW HOURS. SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM
THE GULF ARE LOW TOP AND ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY
FLOW UP TO 10K FEET. THE WESTERN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM MEXICO ARE
MOVING NORTHEAST DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME RECONFIGURING OF THE
POP PLACEMENT. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AS PWATS SURGED TO 2 INCHES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WITH A CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW
TO MAINTAIN MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH
OCCASIONAL CIGS AND VSBY LOWERING TO MVFR WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
PROBABILITIES OF DOMINATE MVFR CIGS REMAIN LOW HOWEVER SOME CIGS
MAY APPROACH THE TOP END OF MVFR WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT
BETWEEN 2500-4000 FEET. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS PERSIST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...DEEP SOUTH TX
REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES TODAY. THE
FIRST BEING THE 500 MB SHORT WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE EL PASO AREA
AND THE BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
TX TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.

RELATIVELY HIGHER LAPS CAPE VALUES ARE INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO ALLOW FOR PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF MAINLY SHOWERS WITH FEW
ISOLD T-STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE BRO CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COVERAGE HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CONV
HAS ALSO BEEN HELPED ALONG BY SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ONGOING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN WEAKEN OUT
WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING AFTER SUNSET.

EXPECT ENOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED CAPE VALUES TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TOMORROW TO JUSTIFY SOME MENTION OF CONV THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN SLOWLY
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATER ON WED TO EVENTUALLY SHUT OFF THE
CONV POTENTIAL FOR THE RGV.

THE ECMWF IS THE WETTEST OF THE THREE MODEL SETS WITH THE MAV AND
MET COMING IN WITH LOWER POPS. WILL GO CLOSE TO THE ECMWF POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN LEAN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET BLEND LATER
TONIGHT INTO WED AND WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE MID SECTIONS OF THE CONUS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE FEATURE THIS FAR SOUTH
THAT WILL SPARK ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND DRY AIR IN THE
LOW AND MID LEVELS FURTHER LOWERS CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST FRIDAY
WHICH WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNDAY.
LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL TREK EASTWARD AS WELL WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING OUT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
KEEP A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS LOOK TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND MOIST SOILS...AM RELUCTANT TO GO ANY
HIGHER ON TEMPERATURES DESPITE A FEW MODELS WARMER THAN MY
FORECAST. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL OR A DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL.

MODELS DIVERGE BY SUNDAY REGARDING PROGRESSION OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. GFS IS WEAKER AND
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND
SLOWER. WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST AND NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
CONTINUING BUT ADD SILENT 10S TO THE AREA BASED ON THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 HAS BEEN HOLDING
CLOSE TO SCEC CRIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WINDS FROM 15G20KTS
WITH SWELLS FROM 5 TO 6 FEET. THE TIGHT PGF PERSISTING DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG AND
PERSISTENT FETCH OF ELEVATED GULF SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM. FOR NOW EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STAY CLOSE TO SCEC LEVELS
THROUGHOUT WED. SOME BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
GULF CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WILL POST A CFW TO CAUTION FOLKS OF THE
POTENTIAL OF BEACH RUNUP DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SETTLES
ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED AND NO SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  84  73  86 /  30  30  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          72  85  71  86 /  40  30  20  10
HARLINGEN            71  86  70  87 /  30  30  20  10
MCALLEN              70  87  70  88 /  40  30  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  87  68  87 /  40  30  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  83  75  84 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/64







000
FXUS64 KBRO 220200
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
900 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...WEAK DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST TEXAS
MID LEVEL TROUGH ARE COMBINING WITH A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH SUBTLE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAINTAINING SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THE LAST FEW HOURS. SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM
THE GULF ARE LOW TOP AND ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY
FLOW UP TO 10K FEET. THE WESTERN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM MEXICO ARE
MOVING NORTHEAST DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME RECONFIGURING OF THE
POP PLACEMENT. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AS PWATS SURGED TO 2 INCHES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WITH A CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW
TO MAINTAIN MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH
OCCASIONAL CIGS AND VSBY LOWERING TO MVFR WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
PROBABILITIES OF DOMINATE MVFR CIGS REMAIN LOW HOWEVER SOME CIGS
MAY APPROACH THE TOP END OF MVFR WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT
BETWEEN 2500-4000 FEET. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS PERSIST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...DEEP SOUTH TX
REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES TODAY. THE
FIRST BEING THE 500 MB SHORT WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE EL PASO AREA
AND THE BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
TX TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.

RELATIVELY HIGHER LAPS CAPE VALUES ARE INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO ALLOW FOR PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF MAINLY SHOWERS WITH FEW
ISOLD T-STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE BRO CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COVERAGE HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CONV
HAS ALSO BEEN HELPED ALONG BY SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ONGOING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN WEAKEN OUT
WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING AFTER SUNSET.

EXPECT ENOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED CAPE VALUES TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TOMORROW TO JUSTIFY SOME MENTION OF CONV THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN SLOWLY
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATER ON WED TO EVENTUALLY SHUT OFF THE
CONV POTENTIAL FOR THE RGV.

THE ECMWF IS THE WETTEST OF THE THREE MODEL SETS WITH THE MAV AND
MET COMING IN WITH LOWER POPS. WILL GO CLOSE TO THE ECMWF POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN LEAN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET BLEND LATER
TONIGHT INTO WED AND WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE MID SECTIONS OF THE CONUS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE FEATURE THIS FAR SOUTH
THAT WILL SPARK ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND DRY AIR IN THE
LOW AND MID LEVELS FURTHER LOWERS CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST FRIDAY
WHICH WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNDAY.
LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL TREK EASTWARD AS WELL WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING OUT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
KEEP A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS LOOK TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND MOIST SOILS...AM RELUCTANT TO GO ANY
HIGHER ON TEMPERATURES DESPITE A FEW MODELS WARMER THAN MY
FORECAST. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL OR A DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL.

MODELS DIVERGE BY SUNDAY REGARDING PROGRESSION OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. GFS IS WEAKER AND
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND
SLOWER. WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST AND NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
CONTINUING BUT ADD SILENT 10S TO THE AREA BASED ON THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 HAS BEEN HOLDING
CLOSE TO SCEC CRIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WINDS FROM 15G20KTS
WITH SWELLS FROM 5 TO 6 FEET. THE TIGHT PGF PERSISTING DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG AND
PERSISTENT FETCH OF ELEVATED GULF SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM. FOR NOW EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STAY CLOSE TO SCEC LEVELS
THROUGHOUT WED. SOME BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
GULF CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WILL POST A CFW TO CAUTION FOLKS OF THE
POTENTIAL OF BEACH RUNUP DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SETTLES
ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED AND NO SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  84  73  86 /  30  30  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          72  85  71  86 /  40  30  20  10
HARLINGEN            71  86  70  87 /  30  30  20  10
MCALLEN              70  87  70  88 /  40  30  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  87  68  87 /  40  30  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  83  75  84 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/64







000
FXUS64 KBRO 212343
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
643 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WITH A CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW
TO MAINTAIN MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH
OCCASIONAL CIGS AND VSBY LOWERING TO MVFR WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
PROBABILITIES OF DOMINATE MVFR CIGS REMAIN LOW HOWEVER SOME CIGS
MAY APPROACH THE TOP END OF MVFR WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT
BETWEEN 2500-4000 FEET. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS PERSIST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...DEEP SOUTH TX
REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES TODAY. THE
FIRST BEING THE 500 MB SHORT WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE EL PASO AREA
AND THE BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
TX TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.

RELATIVELY HIGHER LAPS CAPE VALUES ARE INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO ALLOW FOR PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF MAINLY SHOWERS WITH FEW
ISOLD T-STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE BRO CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COVERAGE HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CONV
HAS ALSO BEEN HELPED ALONG BY SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ONGOING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN WEAKEN OUT
WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING AFTER SUNSET.

EXPECT ENOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED CAPE VALUES TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TOMORROW TO JUSTIFY SOME MENTION OF CONV THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN SLOWLY
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATER ON WED TO EVENTUALLY SHUT OFF THE
CONV POTENTIAL FOR THE RGV.

THE ECMWF IS THE WETTEST OF THE THREE MODEL SETS WITH THE MAV AND
MET COMING IN WITH LOWER POPS. WILL GO CLOSE TO THE ECMWF POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN LEAN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET BLEND LATER
TONIGHT INTO WED AND WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE MID SECTIONS OF THE CONUS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE FEATURE THIS FAR SOUTH
THAT WILL SPARK ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND DRY AIR IN THE
LOW AND MID LEVELS FURTHER LOWERS CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST FRIDAY
WHICH WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNDAY.
LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL TREK EASTWARD AS WELL WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING OUT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
KEEP A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS LOOK TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND MOIST SOILS...AM RELUCTANT TO GO ANY
HIGHER ON TEMPERATURES DESPITE A FEW MODELS WARMER THAN MY
FORECAST. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL OR A DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL.

MODELS DIVERGE BY SUNDAY REGARDING PROGRESSION OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. GFS IS WEAKER AND
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND
SLOWER. WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST AND NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
CONTINUING BUT ADD SILENT 10S TO THE AREA BASED ON THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 HAS BEEN HOLDING
CLOSE TO SCEC CRIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WINDS FROM 15G20KTS
WITH SWELLS FROM 5 TO 6 FEET. THE TIGHT PGF PERSISTING DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG AND
PERSISTENT FETCH OF ELEVATED GULF SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM. FOR NOW EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STAY CLOSE TO SCEC LEVELS
THROUGHOUT WED. SOME BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
GULF CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WILL POST A CFW TO CAUTION FOLKS OF THE
POTENTIAL OF BEACH RUNUP DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SETTLES
ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED AND NO SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  84  73  86 /  30  30  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          72  85  71  86 /  40  30  20  10
HARLINGEN            71  86  70  87 /  30  30  20  10
MCALLEN              70  87  70  88 /  40  30  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  87  68  87 /  40  30  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  83  75  84 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...AVIATION








000
FXUS64 KBRO 212006
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
306 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...DEEP SOUTH TX
REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES TODAY. THE
FIRST BEING THE 500 MB SHORT WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE EL PASO AREA
AND THE BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
TX TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.

RELATIVELY HIGHER LAPS CAPE VALUES ARE INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO ALLOW FOR PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF MAINLY SHOWERS WITH FEW
ISOLD T-STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE BRO CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COVERAGE HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CONV
HAS ALSO BEEN HELPED ALONG BY SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ONGOING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN WEAKEN OUT
WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING AFTER SUNSET.

EXPECT ENOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED CAPE VALUES TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TOMORROW TO JUSTIFY SOME MENTION OF CONV THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN SLOWLY
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATER ON WED TO EVENTUALLY SHUT OFF THE
CONV POTENTIAL FOR THE RGV.

THE ECMWF IS THE WETTEST OF THE THREE MODEL SETS WITH THE MAV AND
MET COMING IN WITH LOWER POPS. WILL GO CLOSE TO THE ECMWF POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN LEAN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET BLEND LATER
TONIGHT INTO WED AND WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE MID SECTIONS OF THE CONUS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE FEATURE THIS FAR SOUTH
THAT WILL SPARK ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND DRY AIR IN THE
LOW AND MID LEVELS FURTHER LOWERS CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST FRIDAY
WHICH WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNDAY.
LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL TREK EASTWARD AS WELL WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING OUT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
KEEP A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS LOOK TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND MOIST SOILS...AM RELUCTANT TO GO ANY
HIGHER ON TEMPERATURES DESPITE A FEW MODELS WARMER THAN MY
FORECAST. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL OR A DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL.

MODELS DIVERGE BY SUNDAY REGARDING PROGRESSION OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. GFS IS WEAKER AND
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND
SLOWER. WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST AND NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
CONTINUING BUT ADD SILENT 10S TO THE AREA BASED ON THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 HAS BEEN HOLDING
CLOSE TO SCEC CRIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WINDS FROM 15G20KTS
WITH SWELLS FROM 5 TO 6 FEET. THE TIGHT PGF PERSISTING DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG AND
PERSISTENT FETCH OF ELEVATED GULF SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM. FOR NOW EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STAY CLOSE TO SCEC LEVELS
THROUGHOUT WED. SOME BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
GULF CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WILL POST A CFW TO CAUTION FOLKS OF THE
POTENTIAL OF BEACH RUNUP DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SETTLES
ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED AND NO SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  84  73  86 /  30  30  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          72  85  71  86 /  40  30  20  10
HARLINGEN            71  86  70  87 /  30  30  20  10
MCALLEN              70  87  70  88 /  40  30  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  87  68  87 /  40  30  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  83  75  84 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 211903 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
203 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...RELATIVELY HIGHER LAPS CAPE VALUES ARE INTERACTING
WITH DECENT DAYTIME HEATING TO ALLOW FOR PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF
MAINLY SHOWERS WITH FEW ISOLD T-STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE BRO CWA.
MOST OF THE COVERAGE HAS BEEN MISSING THE AIRPORTS ACROSS THE
LOWER RGV AS IT MOVES WEST OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY LINGER ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN WEAKEN OUT WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT ENOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES TO LINGER INTO EARLY TOMORROW TO MENTION SOME
PROB30 GROUPS FOR CONV LATE IN THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH LATER ON WED TO
EVENTUALLY SHUT OFF THE CONV POTENTIAL FOR THE RGV. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD WITH
SOME PERIODIC REDUCTIONS DOWN TO MVFR OR IFR LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER
KENEDY COUNTY WITH A FEW STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WILLACY AND
CAMERON COUNTY. EXPECT MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND PASS
OVER THE TERMINALS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS MENTIONING OF THESE SHOWERS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. FURTHER
INLAND...DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS AND PREVIOUS RAINS CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS AREA
IS MAINLY CONCENTRATED WEST OF FALFURRIAS EXTENDING INTO
HEBBRONVILLE AND SOUTH INTO EDINBURG AND MCALLEN AREA. FURTHER
NORTH CEILING HAVE LOWER BETWEEN MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WHILE
FURTHER SOUTH IT HAS STAYED AROUND MVFR LEVEL. VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY LIFTS NE. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE KEEPS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY
SPREADS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING THE DAY...THIS MOISTURE AND
CONTINUOUS EASTERLY FLOW WILL FILTER INLAND DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
INCREASING PWATS AND ENHANCING SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE CWA. DUE TO
ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S TODAY.

TONIGHT...LOWER POPS TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AS DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING NE. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LOW 70S EAST
OF HWY 281.

WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR INFILTRATING SOUTH INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY WILL
LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL
BE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A
STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP DRIER AIR WILL MARCH DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE
INTO THE BRO CWFA...WHILE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BECOMES RE-
CENTERED FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THEN OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. DRY WEATHER WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS WEATHER PATTERN.
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST...INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARED A LITTLE
LOW FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. THUS...THESE WERE RAISED A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH SCEC OVER THE GULF WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THESE EASTERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES OVER THE GULF
WATERS TODAY AND DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE
CONTENT LOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
THEN STEADILY IMPROVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COASTLINE.

COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL BEACHES CONTINUES TO BE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND MAYBE THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
COMBINE WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. MINOR BEACH EROSION AND INCREASED
DIFFICULTY DRIVING ON THE LOCAL BEACHES ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS...AS WAVES OCCASIONALLY WASH UP TO THE DUNE LINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  84  74  84 /  10  20   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          73  85  71  85 /  10  20   0   0
HARLINGEN            72  85  71  85 /  10  20   0   0
MCALLEN              71  86  71  86 /  10  20   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  86  70  86 /  10  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  84  75  82 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 211151
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
651 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER
KENEDY COUNTY WITH A FEW STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WILLACY AND
CAMERON COUNTY. EXPECT MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND PASS
OVER THE TERMINALS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS MENTIONING OF THESE SHOWERS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. FURTHER
INLAND...DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS AND PREVIOUS RAINS CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS AREA
IS MAINLY CONCENTRATED WEST OF FALFURRIAS EXTENDING INTO
HEBBRONVILLE AND SOUTH INTO EDINBURG AND MCALLEN AREA. FURTHER
NORTH CEILING HAVE LOWER BETWEEN MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WHILE
FURTHER SOUTH IT HAS STAYED AROUND MVFR LEVEL. VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY LIFTS NE. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE KEEPS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY
SPREADS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING THE DAY...THIS MOISTURE AND
CONTINUOUS EASTERLY FLOW WILL FILTER INLAND DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
INCREASING PWATS AND ENHANCING SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE CWA. DUE TO
ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S TODAY.

TONIGHT...LOWER POPS TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AS DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING NE. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LOW 70S EAST
OF HWY 281.

WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR INFILTRATING SOUTH INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY WILL
LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL
BE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A
STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP DRIER AIR WILL MARCH DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE
INTO THE BRO CWFA...WHILE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BECOMES RE-
CENTERED FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THEN OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. DRY WEATHER WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS WEATHER PATTERN.
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST...INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARED A LITTLE
LOW FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. THUS...THESE WERE RAISED A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH SCEC OVER THE GULF WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THESE EASTERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES OVER THE GULF
WATERS TODAY AND DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE
CONTENT LOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
THEN STEADILY IMPROVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COASTLINE.

COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL BEACHES CONTINUES TO BE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND MAYBE THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
COMBINE WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. MINOR BEACH EROSION AND INCREASED
DIFFICULTY DRIVING ON THE LOCAL BEACHES ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS...AS WAVES OCCASIONALLY WASH UP TO THE DUNE LINE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66







000
FXUS64 KBRO 211151
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
651 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER
KENEDY COUNTY WITH A FEW STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WILLACY AND
CAMERON COUNTY. EXPECT MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND PASS
OVER THE TERMINALS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS MENTIONING OF THESE SHOWERS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. FURTHER
INLAND...DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS AND PREVIOUS RAINS CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS AREA
IS MAINLY CONCENTRATED WEST OF FALFURRIAS EXTENDING INTO
HEBBRONVILLE AND SOUTH INTO EDINBURG AND MCALLEN AREA. FURTHER
NORTH CEILING HAVE LOWER BETWEEN MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WHILE
FURTHER SOUTH IT HAS STAYED AROUND MVFR LEVEL. VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY LIFTS NE. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE KEEPS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY
SPREADS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING THE DAY...THIS MOISTURE AND
CONTINUOUS EASTERLY FLOW WILL FILTER INLAND DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
INCREASING PWATS AND ENHANCING SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE CWA. DUE TO
ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S TODAY.

TONIGHT...LOWER POPS TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AS DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING NE. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LOW 70S EAST
OF HWY 281.

WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR INFILTRATING SOUTH INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY WILL
LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL
BE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A
STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP DRIER AIR WILL MARCH DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE
INTO THE BRO CWFA...WHILE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BECOMES RE-
CENTERED FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THEN OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. DRY WEATHER WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS WEATHER PATTERN.
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST...INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARED A LITTLE
LOW FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. THUS...THESE WERE RAISED A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH SCEC OVER THE GULF WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THESE EASTERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES OVER THE GULF
WATERS TODAY AND DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE
CONTENT LOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
THEN STEADILY IMPROVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COASTLINE.

COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL BEACHES CONTINUES TO BE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND MAYBE THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
COMBINE WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. MINOR BEACH EROSION AND INCREASED
DIFFICULTY DRIVING ON THE LOCAL BEACHES ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS...AS WAVES OCCASIONALLY WASH UP TO THE DUNE LINE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66








000
FXUS64 KBRO 211151
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
651 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER
KENEDY COUNTY WITH A FEW STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WILLACY AND
CAMERON COUNTY. EXPECT MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND PASS
OVER THE TERMINALS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS MENTIONING OF THESE SHOWERS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. FURTHER
INLAND...DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS AND PREVIOUS RAINS CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS AREA
IS MAINLY CONCENTRATED WEST OF FALFURRIAS EXTENDING INTO
HEBBRONVILLE AND SOUTH INTO EDINBURG AND MCALLEN AREA. FURTHER
NORTH CEILING HAVE LOWER BETWEEN MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WHILE
FURTHER SOUTH IT HAS STAYED AROUND MVFR LEVEL. VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY LIFTS NE. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE KEEPS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY
SPREADS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING THE DAY...THIS MOISTURE AND
CONTINUOUS EASTERLY FLOW WILL FILTER INLAND DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
INCREASING PWATS AND ENHANCING SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE CWA. DUE TO
ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S TODAY.

TONIGHT...LOWER POPS TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AS DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING NE. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LOW 70S EAST
OF HWY 281.

WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR INFILTRATING SOUTH INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY WILL
LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL
BE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A
STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP DRIER AIR WILL MARCH DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE
INTO THE BRO CWFA...WHILE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BECOMES RE-
CENTERED FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THEN OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. DRY WEATHER WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS WEATHER PATTERN.
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST...INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARED A LITTLE
LOW FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. THUS...THESE WERE RAISED A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH SCEC OVER THE GULF WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THESE EASTERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES OVER THE GULF
WATERS TODAY AND DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE
CONTENT LOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
THEN STEADILY IMPROVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COASTLINE.

COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL BEACHES CONTINUES TO BE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND MAYBE THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
COMBINE WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. MINOR BEACH EROSION AND INCREASED
DIFFICULTY DRIVING ON THE LOCAL BEACHES ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS...AS WAVES OCCASIONALLY WASH UP TO THE DUNE LINE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66








000
FXUS64 KBRO 211151
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
651 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER
KENEDY COUNTY WITH A FEW STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WILLACY AND
CAMERON COUNTY. EXPECT MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND PASS
OVER THE TERMINALS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS MENTIONING OF THESE SHOWERS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. FURTHER
INLAND...DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS AND PREVIOUS RAINS CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS AREA
IS MAINLY CONCENTRATED WEST OF FALFURRIAS EXTENDING INTO
HEBBRONVILLE AND SOUTH INTO EDINBURG AND MCALLEN AREA. FURTHER
NORTH CEILING HAVE LOWER BETWEEN MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WHILE
FURTHER SOUTH IT HAS STAYED AROUND MVFR LEVEL. VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY LIFTS NE. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE KEEPS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY
SPREADS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING THE DAY...THIS MOISTURE AND
CONTINUOUS EASTERLY FLOW WILL FILTER INLAND DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
INCREASING PWATS AND ENHANCING SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE CWA. DUE TO
ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S TODAY.

TONIGHT...LOWER POPS TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AS DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING NE. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LOW 70S EAST
OF HWY 281.

WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR INFILTRATING SOUTH INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY WILL
LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL
BE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A
STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP DRIER AIR WILL MARCH DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE
INTO THE BRO CWFA...WHILE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BECOMES RE-
CENTERED FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THEN OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. DRY WEATHER WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS WEATHER PATTERN.
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST...INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARED A LITTLE
LOW FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. THUS...THESE WERE RAISED A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH SCEC OVER THE GULF WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THESE EASTERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES OVER THE GULF
WATERS TODAY AND DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE
CONTENT LOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
THEN STEADILY IMPROVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COASTLINE.

COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL BEACHES CONTINUES TO BE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND MAYBE THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
COMBINE WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. MINOR BEACH EROSION AND INCREASED
DIFFICULTY DRIVING ON THE LOCAL BEACHES ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS...AS WAVES OCCASIONALLY WASH UP TO THE DUNE LINE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66







000
FXUS64 KBRO 210919
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
419 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY LIFTS NE. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE KEEPS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY
SPREADS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING THE DAY...THIS MOISTURE AND
CONTINUOUS EASTERLY FLOW WILL FILTER INLAND DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
INCREASING PWATS AND ENHANCING SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE CWA. DUE TO
ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S TODAY.

TONIGHT...LOWER POPS TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AS DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING NE. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LOW 70S EAST
OF HWY 281.

WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR INFILTRATING SOUTH INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY WILL
LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL
BE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A
STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP DRIER AIR WILL MARCH DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE
INTO THE BRO CWFA...WHILE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BECOMES RE-
CENTERED FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THEN OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. DRY WEATHER WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS WEATHER PATTERN.
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST...INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARED A LITTLE
LOW FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. THUS...THESE WERE RAISED A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH SCEC OVER THE GULF WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THESE EASTERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES OVER THE GULF
WATERS TODAY AND DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE
CONTENT LOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
THEN STEADILY IMPROVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COASTLINE.
&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL BEACHES CONTINUES TO BE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND MAYBE THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
COMBINE WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. MINOR BEACH EROSION AND INCREASED
DIFFICULTY DRIVING ON THE LOCAL BEACHES ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS...AS WAVES OCCASIONALLY WASH UP TO THE DUNE LINE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  85  74  84  74 /  20  10  20   0
BROWNSVILLE          86  73  85  71 /  20  10  20   0
HARLINGEN            87  72  85  71 /  20  10  20   0
MCALLEN              87  71  86  71 /  20  10  20   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      87  69  86  70 /  20  10  20   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   84  77  84  75 /  20  10  20   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...TORRES-67
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
MESO/WX4PPT...BILLINGS-58





000
FXUS64 KBRO 210919
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
419 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY LIFTS NE. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE KEEPS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY
SPREADS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING THE DAY...THIS MOISTURE AND
CONTINUOUS EASTERLY FLOW WILL FILTER INLAND DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
INCREASING PWATS AND ENHANCING SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE CWA. DUE TO
ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S TODAY.

TONIGHT...LOWER POPS TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AS DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING NE. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LOW 70S EAST
OF HWY 281.

WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR INFILTRATING SOUTH INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY WILL
LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL
BE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A
STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP DRIER AIR WILL MARCH DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE
INTO THE BRO CWFA...WHILE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BECOMES RE-
CENTERED FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THEN OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. DRY WEATHER WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS WEATHER PATTERN.
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST...INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARED A LITTLE
LOW FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. THUS...THESE WERE RAISED A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH SCEC OVER THE GULF WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THESE EASTERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES OVER THE GULF
WATERS TODAY AND DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE
CONTENT LOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
THEN STEADILY IMPROVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COASTLINE.
&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL BEACHES CONTINUES TO BE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND MAYBE THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
COMBINE WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. MINOR BEACH EROSION AND INCREASED
DIFFICULTY DRIVING ON THE LOCAL BEACHES ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS...AS WAVES OCCASIONALLY WASH UP TO THE DUNE LINE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  85  74  84  74 /  20  10  20   0
BROWNSVILLE          86  73  85  71 /  20  10  20   0
HARLINGEN            87  72  85  71 /  20  10  20   0
MCALLEN              87  71  86  71 /  20  10  20   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      87  69  86  70 /  20  10  20   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   84  77  84  75 /  20  10  20   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...TORRES-67
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
MESO/WX4PPT...BILLINGS-58






000
FXUS64 KBRO 210552
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1252 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AS GULF MOISTURE
SURGES INLAND WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST
BUT WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES TO THE TERMINALS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED BUT COULD LOWER TO MVFR IN
THE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY AROUND SUNRISE. THE EAST WINDS WILL
BECOME MODERATE WITH BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CONVECTION IS WANING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN
01-03Z. AS THE CONVECTION ENDS CUMULUS TO TEMPORARILY DISSIPATE AS
WELL HOWEVER WITH A CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF OF MOISTURE WITH A
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND PERIODIC SCT TO POSSIBLE BKN VFR CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED BUT COULD LOWER APPROACHING MVFR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY WHICH MIGHT BE MENTIONED IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10 TO 14 KNOTS TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BRO RADAR BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
`SHOTGUNNED` ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
VALLEY ATTM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A LITTLE DIFFLUENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MORNING SOUNDING WAS MOIST WITH A PWAT
OF 1.84 INCHES AND DECENT MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WHICH PROGRESSES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BETTER POPS
NORTH OF THE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ZAPATA/STARR COUNTIES AFTER
SUNSET.

EXPECTING A REPEAT OF POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONFINED POPS TO
OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GULF WATERS TOWARDS DAWN THEN MOVE THAT
AREA INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE
THE RANCHLANDS TUESDAY AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS OUT OF THE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS TODAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE 850-700MB LAYER. LESS CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING
OF LL DRY AIR LED ME TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE VALLEY
TUESDAY WHICH MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AS WELL /3-5 DEGREES OVER GOING
FORECAST/. KEPT HIGHS AS IS NORTH OF THE VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.  /55/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE TURN OFF THE ATMOSPHERIC
SPIGOT.

EYES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WEAKENING EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING CLOSE TO THE 2 INCH MARK.  WITH A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EMANATING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM THE LOW...I EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING TO BE IN PLACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW SHOULD LESSEN AT
MID-WEEK...AS IT STARTS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY GET SHOVED SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.

AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING HOURS.  LOCALES OVER OUR MORE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
HOLDING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE ODDS OF SEEING STORMS IN MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE LOW...GIVEN WEAKENING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT THE
TIME OF DAY WHEN THERE`S A DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY.  STILL
THOUGH...IT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED BY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN PROBLEM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT MID-WEEK.  ROUGH SWELLS FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONMICAL TIDES TO YIELD THE THREAT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME.  STAY TUNED.

ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE
COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT AND (REALLY) DRIER AIR
MOVES SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.  RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS MID-AMERICA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THERE`S STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THINGS
DURING THE DAY 5 THROUGH 7 TIME PERIOD THOUGH...AS SOIL MOISTURE
FROM ANY RECENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER HIGHS JUST A BIT.  IN ADDITION
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.

THANKS TO WPC AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATION TODAY. /53/

MARINE...

NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
INCREASING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
SCEC CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS WELL.  /55/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED HEADING INTO MID-WEEK THANKS
TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA.  SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE
DROPPED AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.  INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.  /53/

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66








000
FXUS64 KBRO 210552
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1252 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AS GULF MOISTURE
SURGES INLAND WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST
BUT WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES TO THE TERMINALS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED BUT COULD LOWER TO MVFR IN
THE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY AROUND SUNRISE. THE EAST WINDS WILL
BECOME MODERATE WITH BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CONVECTION IS WANING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN
01-03Z. AS THE CONVECTION ENDS CUMULUS TO TEMPORARILY DISSIPATE AS
WELL HOWEVER WITH A CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF OF MOISTURE WITH A
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND PERIODIC SCT TO POSSIBLE BKN VFR CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED BUT COULD LOWER APPROACHING MVFR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY WHICH MIGHT BE MENTIONED IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10 TO 14 KNOTS TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BRO RADAR BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
`SHOTGUNNED` ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
VALLEY ATTM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A LITTLE DIFFLUENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MORNING SOUNDING WAS MOIST WITH A PWAT
OF 1.84 INCHES AND DECENT MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WHICH PROGRESSES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BETTER POPS
NORTH OF THE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ZAPATA/STARR COUNTIES AFTER
SUNSET.

EXPECTING A REPEAT OF POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONFINED POPS TO
OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GULF WATERS TOWARDS DAWN THEN MOVE THAT
AREA INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE
THE RANCHLANDS TUESDAY AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS OUT OF THE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS TODAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE 850-700MB LAYER. LESS CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING
OF LL DRY AIR LED ME TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE VALLEY
TUESDAY WHICH MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AS WELL /3-5 DEGREES OVER GOING
FORECAST/. KEPT HIGHS AS IS NORTH OF THE VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.  /55/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE TURN OFF THE ATMOSPHERIC
SPIGOT.

EYES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WEAKENING EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING CLOSE TO THE 2 INCH MARK.  WITH A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EMANATING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM THE LOW...I EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING TO BE IN PLACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW SHOULD LESSEN AT
MID-WEEK...AS IT STARTS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY GET SHOVED SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.

AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING HOURS.  LOCALES OVER OUR MORE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
HOLDING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE ODDS OF SEEING STORMS IN MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE LOW...GIVEN WEAKENING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT THE
TIME OF DAY WHEN THERE`S A DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY.  STILL
THOUGH...IT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED BY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN PROBLEM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT MID-WEEK.  ROUGH SWELLS FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONMICAL TIDES TO YIELD THE THREAT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME.  STAY TUNED.

ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE
COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT AND (REALLY) DRIER AIR
MOVES SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.  RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS MID-AMERICA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THERE`S STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THINGS
DURING THE DAY 5 THROUGH 7 TIME PERIOD THOUGH...AS SOIL MOISTURE
FROM ANY RECENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER HIGHS JUST A BIT.  IN ADDITION
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.

THANKS TO WPC AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATION TODAY. /53/

MARINE...

NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
INCREASING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
SCEC CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS WELL.  /55/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED HEADING INTO MID-WEEK THANKS
TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA.  SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE
DROPPED AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.  INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.  /53/

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66







000
FXUS64 KBRO 202336 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
636 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS WANING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN
01-03Z. AS THE CONVECTION ENDS CUMULUS TO TEMPORARILY DISSIPATE AS
WELL HOWEVER WITH A CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF OF MOISTURE WITH A
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND PERIODIC SCT TO POSSIBLE BKN VFR CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED BUT COULD LOWER APPROACHING MVFR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY WHICH MIGHT BE MENTIONED IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10 TO 14 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BRO RADAR BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
`SHOTGUNNED` ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
VALLEY ATTM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A LITTLE DIFFLUENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MORNING SOUNDING WAS MOIST WITH A PWAT
OF 1.84 INCHES AND DECENT MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WHICH PROGRESSES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BETTER POPS
NORTH OF THE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ZAPATA/STARR COUNTIES AFTER
SUNSET.

EXPECTING A REPEAT OF POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONFINED POPS TO
OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GULF WATERS TOWARDS DAWN THEN MOVE THAT
AREA INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE
THE RANCHLANDS TUESDAY AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS OUT OF THE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS TODAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE 850-700MB LAYER. LESS CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING
OF LL DRY AIR LED ME TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE VALLEY
TUESDAY WHICH MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AS WELL /3-5 DEGREES OVER GOING
FORECAST/. KEPT HIGHS AS IS NORTH OF THE VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.  /55/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE TURN OFF THE ATMOSPHERIC
SPIGOT.

EYES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WEAKENING EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING CLOSE TO THE 2 INCH MARK.  WITH A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EMANATING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM THE LOW...I EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING TO BE IN PLACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW SHOULD LESSEN AT
MID-WEEK...AS IT STARTS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY GET SHOVED SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.

AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING HOURS.  LOCALES OVER OUR MORE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
HOLDING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE ODDS OF SEEING STORMS IN MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE LOW...GIVEN WEAKENING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT THE
TIME OF DAY WHEN THERE`S A DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY.  STILL
THOUGH...IT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED BY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN PROBLEM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT MID-WEEK.  ROUGH SWELLS FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONMICAL TIDES TO YIELD THE THREAT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME.  STAY TUNED.

ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE
COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT AND (REALLY) DRIER AIR
MOVES SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.  RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS MID-AMERICA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THERE`S STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THINGS
DURING THE DAY 5 THROUGH 7 TIME PERIOD THOUGH...AS SOIL MOISTURE
FROM ANY RECENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER HIGHS JUST A BIT.  IN ADDITION
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.

THANKS TO WPC AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATION TODAY. /53/

MARINE...

NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
INCREASING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
SCEC CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS WELL.  /55/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED HEADING INTO MID-WEEK THANKS
TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA.  SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE
DROPPED AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.  INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.  /53/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  86  74  84 /  10  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          72  87  73  85 /  10  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            70  87  71  85 /  10  20  20  20
MCALLEN              71  88  70  86 /  10  20  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  86  69  86 /  20  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  84  77  84 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/52







000
FXUS64 KBRO 202336 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
636 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS WANING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN
01-03Z. AS THE CONVECTION ENDS CUMULUS TO TEMPORARILY DISSIPATE AS
WELL HOWEVER WITH A CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF OF MOISTURE WITH A
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND PERIODIC SCT TO POSSIBLE BKN VFR CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED BUT COULD LOWER APPROACHING MVFR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY WHICH MIGHT BE MENTIONED IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10 TO 14 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BRO RADAR BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
`SHOTGUNNED` ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
VALLEY ATTM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A LITTLE DIFFLUENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MORNING SOUNDING WAS MOIST WITH A PWAT
OF 1.84 INCHES AND DECENT MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WHICH PROGRESSES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BETTER POPS
NORTH OF THE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ZAPATA/STARR COUNTIES AFTER
SUNSET.

EXPECTING A REPEAT OF POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONFINED POPS TO
OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GULF WATERS TOWARDS DAWN THEN MOVE THAT
AREA INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE
THE RANCHLANDS TUESDAY AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS OUT OF THE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS TODAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE 850-700MB LAYER. LESS CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING
OF LL DRY AIR LED ME TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE VALLEY
TUESDAY WHICH MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AS WELL /3-5 DEGREES OVER GOING
FORECAST/. KEPT HIGHS AS IS NORTH OF THE VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.  /55/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE TURN OFF THE ATMOSPHERIC
SPIGOT.

EYES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WEAKENING EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING CLOSE TO THE 2 INCH MARK.  WITH A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EMANATING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM THE LOW...I EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING TO BE IN PLACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW SHOULD LESSEN AT
MID-WEEK...AS IT STARTS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY GET SHOVED SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.

AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING HOURS.  LOCALES OVER OUR MORE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
HOLDING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE ODDS OF SEEING STORMS IN MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE LOW...GIVEN WEAKENING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT THE
TIME OF DAY WHEN THERE`S A DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY.  STILL
THOUGH...IT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED BY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN PROBLEM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT MID-WEEK.  ROUGH SWELLS FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONMICAL TIDES TO YIELD THE THREAT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME.  STAY TUNED.

ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE
COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT AND (REALLY) DRIER AIR
MOVES SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.  RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS MID-AMERICA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THERE`S STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THINGS
DURING THE DAY 5 THROUGH 7 TIME PERIOD THOUGH...AS SOIL MOISTURE
FROM ANY RECENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER HIGHS JUST A BIT.  IN ADDITION
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.

THANKS TO WPC AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATION TODAY. /53/

MARINE...

NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
INCREASING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
SCEC CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS WELL.  /55/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED HEADING INTO MID-WEEK THANKS
TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA.  SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE
DROPPED AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.  INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.  /53/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  86  74  84 /  10  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          72  87  73  85 /  10  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            70  87  71  85 /  10  20  20  20
MCALLEN              71  88  70  86 /  10  20  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  86  69  86 /  20  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  84  77  84 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/52








000
FXUS64 KBRO 201954
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
254 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BRO RADAR BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
`SHOTGUNNED` ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
VALLEY ATTM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A LITTLE DIFFLUENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MORNING SOUNDING WAS MOIST WITH A PWAT
OF 1.84 INCHES AND DECENT MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WHICH PROGRESSES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BETTER POPS
NORTH OF THE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ZAPATA/STARR COUNTIES AFTER
SUNSET.

EXPECTING A REPEAT OF POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONFINED POPS TO
OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GULF WATERS TOWARDS DAWN THEN MOVE THAT
AREA INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE
THE RANCHLANDS TUESDAY AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS OUT OF THE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS TODAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE 850-700MB LAYER. LESS CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING
OF LL DRY AIR LED ME TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE VALLEY
TUESDAY WHICH MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AS WELL /3-5 DEGREES OVER GOING
FORECAST/. KEPT HIGHS AS IS NORTH OF THE VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.  /55/

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE TURN OFF THE ATMOSPHERIC
SPIGOT.

EYES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WEAKENING EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING CLOSE TO THE 2 INCH MARK.  WITH A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EMANATING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM THE LOW...I EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING TO BE IN PLACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW SHOULD LESSEN AT
MID-WEEK...AS IT STARTS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY GET SHOVED SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.

AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING HOURS.  LOCALES OVER OUR MORE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
HOLDING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE ODDS OF SEEING STORMS IN MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE LOW...GIVEN WEAKENING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT THE
TIME OF DAY WHEN THERE`S A DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY.  STILL
THOUGH...IT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED BY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN PROBLEM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT MID-WEEK.  ROUGH SWELLS FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONMICAL TIDES TO YIELD THE THREAT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME.  STAY TUNED.

ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE
COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT AND (REALLY) DRIER AIR
MOVES SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.  RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS MID-AMERICA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THERE`S STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THINGS
DURING THE DAY 5 THROUGH 7 TIME PERIOD THOUGH...AS SOIL MOISTURE
FROM ANY RECENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER HIGHS JUST A BIT.  IN ADDITION
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.

THANKS TO WPC AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATION TODAY. /53/


&&

.MARINE...

NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
INCREASING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
SCEC CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS WELL.  /55/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED HEADING INTO MID-WEEK THANKS
TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA.  SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE
DROPPED AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.  INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.  /53/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  86  74  84 /  10  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          72  87  73  85 /  10  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            70  87  71  85 /  10  20  20  20
MCALLEN              71  88  70  86 /  10  20  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  86  69  86 /  20  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  84  77  84 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... SCHOLL
LONG TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
PSU/GRAPHICAST... MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 201954
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
254 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BRO RADAR BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
`SHOTGUNNED` ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
VALLEY ATTM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A LITTLE DIFFLUENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MORNING SOUNDING WAS MOIST WITH A PWAT
OF 1.84 INCHES AND DECENT MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WHICH PROGRESSES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BETTER POPS
NORTH OF THE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ZAPATA/STARR COUNTIES AFTER
SUNSET.

EXPECTING A REPEAT OF POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONFINED POPS TO
OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GULF WATERS TOWARDS DAWN THEN MOVE THAT
AREA INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE
THE RANCHLANDS TUESDAY AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS OUT OF THE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS TODAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE 850-700MB LAYER. LESS CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING
OF LL DRY AIR LED ME TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE VALLEY
TUESDAY WHICH MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AS WELL /3-5 DEGREES OVER GOING
FORECAST/. KEPT HIGHS AS IS NORTH OF THE VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.  /55/

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE TURN OFF THE ATMOSPHERIC
SPIGOT.

EYES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WEAKENING EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING CLOSE TO THE 2 INCH MARK.  WITH A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EMANATING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM THE LOW...I EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING TO BE IN PLACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW SHOULD LESSEN AT
MID-WEEK...AS IT STARTS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY GET SHOVED SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.

AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING HOURS.  LOCALES OVER OUR MORE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
HOLDING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE ODDS OF SEEING STORMS IN MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE LOW...GIVEN WEAKENING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT THE
TIME OF DAY WHEN THERE`S A DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY.  STILL
THOUGH...IT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED BY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN PROBLEM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT MID-WEEK.  ROUGH SWELLS FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONMICAL TIDES TO YIELD THE THREAT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME.  STAY TUNED.

ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE
COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT AND (REALLY) DRIER AIR
MOVES SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.  RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS MID-AMERICA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THERE`S STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THINGS
DURING THE DAY 5 THROUGH 7 TIME PERIOD THOUGH...AS SOIL MOISTURE
FROM ANY RECENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER HIGHS JUST A BIT.  IN ADDITION
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.

THANKS TO WPC AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATION TODAY. /53/


&&

.MARINE...

NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
INCREASING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
SCEC CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS WELL.  /55/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED HEADING INTO MID-WEEK THANKS
TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA.  SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE
DROPPED AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.  INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.  /53/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  86  74  84 /  10  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          72  87  73  85 /  10  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            70  87  71  85 /  10  20  20  20
MCALLEN              71  88  70  86 /  10  20  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  86  69  86 /  20  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  84  77  84 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... SCHOLL
LONG TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
PSU/GRAPHICAST... MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 201724
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1224 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...HAVE LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON SHRA IMPACTING THE
TERMINALS AND EVEN LESS CONFIDENCE ON TS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A `SHOTGUN` OF SORTS PRECIPITATION ACROSS
ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE GENERAL TREND OF MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TERMINALS. THEREFORE...HAVE PULLED TEMPO OUT OF ALL TAFS
AND REPLACED WITH VCSH. BELIEVE THAT IF ANY SHRA DOES IMPACT A
TERMINAL IT WILL BE QUICK AND LIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
PRECIPITATION...SHOULD BE VFR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH PASSING STRATUS THROUGH THE AERODROMES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF KENEDY COUNTY PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
CLOSE TO THE TERMINALS BUT DO EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SURGING
INTO THE AREA DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER
THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAINING ALMOST STATIONARY
WHILE TO THE SOUTHWEST A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THIS TWO FEATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOWS A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF CONVECTION STRENGTHENING IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE BAY
WHILE ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE HUGS THE COASTAL WATERS OF MX AND S TX.
AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT THE EASTERLY
FLOW TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SURGING DEEP MOISTURE INLAND.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AND
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT KEEPS
INCREASING. THE PWATS INCREASE TO 1.90 INCHES WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MOST OF
THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AS THE
WEAK TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST BUT SOME CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE RISK FOR CONVECTION
DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND DAYTIME
HEATING. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE...COMBINED
WITH 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE
AND PLACE THE BRO CWFA IN A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...AND MAY NEED TO
BE BUMPED UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES REGARDING DAYTIME HIGHS...SINCE
LIMITED CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM INCREASING INTO TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
SEAS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES
OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS MEANDERING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE CONDITIONS...WITH
MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS...IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY AND THE HIGH
BECOMES MORE IN CONTROL.

COASTAL FLOODING...THE RISK FOR MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND COMBINE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL (1.5 TO 2 FEET) ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. AN INCREASED HAZARD
OF DRIVING ON THE BEACH AND MINOR BEACH EROSION ARE LIKELY TO BE
THE TWO MAIN HAZARDS ON LAND...WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IN THE SURF ZONE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55






000
FXUS64 KBRO 201142
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
642 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF KENEDY COUNTY PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
CLOSE TO THE TERMINALS BUT DO EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SURGING
INTO THE AREA DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER
THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAINING ALMOST STATIONARY
WHILE TO THE SOUTHWEST A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THIS TWO FEATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOWS A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF CONVECTION STRENGTHENING IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE BAY
WHILE ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE HUGS THE COASTAL WATERS OF MX AND S TX.
AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT THE EASTERLY
FLOW TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SURGING DEEP MOISTURE INLAND.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AND
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT KEEPS
INCREASING. THE PWATS INCREASE TO 1.90 INCHES WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MOST OF
THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AS THE
WEAK TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST BUT SOME CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE RISK FOR CONVECTION
DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND DAYTIME
HEATING. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE...COMBINED
WITH 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE
AND PLACE THE BRO CWFA IN A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...AND MAY NEED TO
BE BUMPED UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES REGARDING DAYTIME HIGHS...SINCE
LIMITED CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM INCREASING INTO TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
SEAS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES
OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS MEANDERING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE CONDITIONS...WITH
MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS...IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY AND THE HIGH
BECOMES MORE IN CONTROL.

COASTAL FLOODING...THE RISK FOR MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND COMBINE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL (1.5 TO 2 FEET) ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. AN INCREASED HAZARD
OF DRIVING ON THE BEACH AND MINOR BEACH EROSION ARE LIKELY TO BE
THE TWO MAIN HAZARDS ON LAND...WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IN THE SURF ZONE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66







000
FXUS64 KBRO 201142
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
642 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF KENEDY COUNTY PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
CLOSE TO THE TERMINALS BUT DO EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SURGING
INTO THE AREA DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER
THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAINING ALMOST STATIONARY
WHILE TO THE SOUTHWEST A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THIS TWO FEATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOWS A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF CONVECTION STRENGTHENING IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE BAY
WHILE ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE HUGS THE COASTAL WATERS OF MX AND S TX.
AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT THE EASTERLY
FLOW TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SURGING DEEP MOISTURE INLAND.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AND
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT KEEPS
INCREASING. THE PWATS INCREASE TO 1.90 INCHES WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MOST OF
THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AS THE
WEAK TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST BUT SOME CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE RISK FOR CONVECTION
DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND DAYTIME
HEATING. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE...COMBINED
WITH 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE
AND PLACE THE BRO CWFA IN A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...AND MAY NEED TO
BE BUMPED UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES REGARDING DAYTIME HIGHS...SINCE
LIMITED CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM INCREASING INTO TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
SEAS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES
OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS MEANDERING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE CONDITIONS...WITH
MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS...IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY AND THE HIGH
BECOMES MORE IN CONTROL.

COASTAL FLOODING...THE RISK FOR MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND COMBINE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL (1.5 TO 2 FEET) ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. AN INCREASED HAZARD
OF DRIVING ON THE BEACH AND MINOR BEACH EROSION ARE LIKELY TO BE
THE TWO MAIN HAZARDS ON LAND...WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IN THE SURF ZONE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66








000
FXUS64 KBRO 200922
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
422 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAINING ALMOST STATIONARY
WHILE TO THE SOUTHWEST A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THIS TWO FEATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOWS A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF CONVECTION STRENGTHENING IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE BAY
WHILE ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE HUGS THE COASTAL WATERS OF MX AND S TX.
AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT THE EASTERLY
FLOW TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SURGING DEEP MOISTURE INLAND.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AND
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT KEEPS
INCREASING. THE PWATS INCREASE TO 1.90 INCHES WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MOST OF
THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AS THE
WEAK TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST BUT SOME CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE RISK FOR CONVECTION
DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND DAYTIME
HEATING. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE...COMBINED
WITH 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE
AND PLACE THE BRO CWFA IN A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...AND MAY NEED TO
BE BUMPED UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES REGARDING DAYTIME HIGHS...SINCE
LIMITED CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM INCREASING INTO TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
SEAS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES
OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS MEANDERING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE CONDITIONS...WITH
MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS...IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY AND THE HIGH
BECOMES MORE IN CONTROL.
&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...THE RISK FOR MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND COMBINE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL (1.5 TO 2 FEET) ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. AN INCREASED HAZARD
OF DRIVING ON THE BEACH AND MINOR BEACH EROSION ARE LIKELY TO BE
THE TWO MAIN HAZARDS ON LAND...WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IN THE SURF ZONE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  73  83  73 /  40  30  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          86  72  84  72 /  40  30  30  20
HARLINGEN            87  70  84  70 /  40  30  20  20
MCALLEN              87  70  85  70 /  40  30  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      85  69  83  67 /  40  30  30  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  75  83  76 /  40  30  20  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...TORRES-67
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
MESO/WX4PPT...CAMPBELL






000
FXUS64 KBRO 200922
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
422 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAINING ALMOST STATIONARY
WHILE TO THE SOUTHWEST A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THIS TWO FEATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOWS A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF CONVECTION STRENGTHENING IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE BAY
WHILE ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE HUGS THE COASTAL WATERS OF MX AND S TX.
AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT THE EASTERLY
FLOW TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SURGING DEEP MOISTURE INLAND.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AND
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT KEEPS
INCREASING. THE PWATS INCREASE TO 1.90 INCHES WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MOST OF
THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AS THE
WEAK TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST BUT SOME CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE RISK FOR CONVECTION
DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND DAYTIME
HEATING. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE...COMBINED
WITH 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE
AND PLACE THE BRO CWFA IN A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...AND MAY NEED TO
BE BUMPED UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES REGARDING DAYTIME HIGHS...SINCE
LIMITED CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM INCREASING INTO TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
SEAS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES
OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS MEANDERING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE CONDITIONS...WITH
MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS...IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY AND THE HIGH
BECOMES MORE IN CONTROL.
&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...THE RISK FOR MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND COMBINE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL (1.5 TO 2 FEET) ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. AN INCREASED HAZARD
OF DRIVING ON THE BEACH AND MINOR BEACH EROSION ARE LIKELY TO BE
THE TWO MAIN HAZARDS ON LAND...WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IN THE SURF ZONE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  73  83  73 /  40  30  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          86  72  84  72 /  40  30  30  20
HARLINGEN            87  70  84  70 /  40  30  20  20
MCALLEN              87  70  85  70 /  40  30  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      85  69  83  67 /  40  30  30  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  75  83  76 /  40  30  20  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...TORRES-67
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
MESO/WX4PPT...CAMPBELL





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