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000
FXUS64 KBRO 282350 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
550 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. /53/

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 29/0000 UTC TAF PACKAGE
CONTINUE TO INVOLVE OVERNIGHT LOW CIGS/VSBY RESTRICTIONS...AND
GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE W. S WINDS AT
925MB/850MB SHOULD APPROACH 30-40 KTS BETWEEN 29/0600-0900 UTC.
THESE TRAJECTORIES SHOULD BRING A PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE
ALONG THE MX COAST AND INTO S TX OVERNIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
SHOULD BE DEEPEST AT TERMINALS BETWEEN THE US-281 AND IH-69E/US-77
CORRIDORS.

MY INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST.
MECHANICAL MIXING IN THIS LAYER (AND JUST ABOVE A FORECAST SHALLOW
THERMAL INVERSION) SHOULD LARGELY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FG...AND INSTEAD ALLOW FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO BE REDUCED (PRIMARILY)
DUE TO LOW CIGS. WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING TREND IN THE TAFS FOR
NOW AND WAIT FOR THIS EVENING`S KBRO SOUNDING TO SEE HOW THINGS
ARE EVOLVING.

THE LOW CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 29/1500 UTC OR SO...WHEN
MECHANICAL MIXING AIDS IN IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES. THIS
SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN STRONG/GUSTY SE WINDS THROUGH 30/0000 UTC.
GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. /53/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE BAJA MEXICO REGION WILL MOVE EASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN LEE
TROUGHING TO OUR WEST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM AFTER SUNSET
REACHING 35 KNOTS AROUND 2K FEET. THIS WILL HELP DRAW UP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MAY ACTUALLY HINDER FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER THE NAM IS
HINTING AT A STRONG INVERSION ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS AT THE SFC
LESS THAN 6 KNOTS IN PARTS OF THE AREA. BELIEVE PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN MOST FOG PRONE AREAS /MAINLY NORTH OF THE VALLEY AND
ACROSS LARGE GRASSY AREAS/ BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
FOG WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO TURBULENCE AROUND THE INVERSION LAYER.

AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY...CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO
BREAK BY MID MORNING ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 9AM WITH GUSTS 25-30
MPH POSSIBLE IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...THE STRONGER
OF THE WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. HIGHS
WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WITH MIXING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...REACHING CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE CROSSING THE
TEXAS BIG BEND LATER IN THE NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP BUT SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
ACROSS THE COAST AND PERHAPS AROUND THE LAGUNA MADRE. LOW LEVEL JET
SETS UP AGAIN AND SURFACE WINDS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER OVERNIGHT AS
COMPARED TO TONIGHT SO NO BIG CONCERNS FOR FOG. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND WILL HOLD SILENT POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND COASTAL WATERS AS A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
AND IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...LOWS WILL JUST FALL TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S. /55/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE BROAD 500 MB FLOW PATTERN
WILL BE TRANSITIONING FROM A SOMEWHAT ZONAL PATTERN ON SUNDAY TO A
BROAD RIDGING PATTERN MON AND TUES WITH THE RIDGING STARTING TO
SHIFT EAST AND FLATTENING OUT SOMEWHAT THURS AND FRI. 500 MB
TROFFING WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGIONS ON MON WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
DEEP SOUTH TX LATE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY CAA IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT WILL BE PRETTY SHORT LIVED WITH THE SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTING AROUND FROM THE E-SE WED NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST. WAA WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE REGION THURS AND FRI
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED FURTHER EAST. THE FAIRLY
FAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION
PRETTY LIMITED THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING LONGER RANGE PERIOD. SO
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF 20 TO 30 % POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MARINE AND COASTAL REGIONS THROUGH THURS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD. PRETTY LOW QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

WITH SOME FORM OF WEAK TO MODERATE 500 MB RIDGING PREVAILING FOR
MUCH OF THE LONGER TERM PERIOD EXPECT OVERALL TEMP TRENDS TO
REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE NOV FOR THE MOST PART. THE
EXCEPTION DURING THE LONGER TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUES AFTER THE
FROPA WHEN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND
OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR LONG TERM TEMPS. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE GFS MEX MOS WILL IS PRETTY STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS
BOTH FOR TEMPS AND POPS. THE LATEST ECMWF RUN IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS 500 MB FIELDS UP THROUGH AROUND WED. THE
AGREEMENT IN THE 500 MB PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE HAZY FOR THURS
AND FRI. OVERAL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS
GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE DESPITE THE WIDER MODEL DISAGREEMENT LATER
NEXT WEEK. /60/

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH GULF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOWER
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH LEE TROUGHING
STRETCHING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHENING FROM LIGHT TO BREEZY. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF
TONIGHT... WITH POSSIBLE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON THE BAY AND ON THE GULF SATURDAY. AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP...A
FEW COASTAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AS WELL. /55/

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH SUN AND
SUN NIGHT TO RESULT IN NEAR SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG SE MARINE
WINDS. THE PGF WILL THEN WEAKEN MON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTH. THEN CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEGRADE ONCE
AGAIN MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA AS
STRONGER N-NE WINDS BUILD OVER THE GULF WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUES MORNING BUT SCEC
CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE LIKELY. THE PGS THEN WEAKENS ONCE AGAIN
TUES NIGHT INTO WED ALLOWING FOR CALMER MARINE CONDITIONS TOWARDS
THE END OF THE CWF PERIOD. /60/

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM... BUTTS
LONG TERM... TOMASELLI
PSU/GRAPHICAST... MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 282350 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
550 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. /53/

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 29/0000 UTC TAF PACKAGE
CONTINUE TO INVOLVE OVERNIGHT LOW CIGS/VSBY RESTRICTIONS...AND
GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE W. S WINDS AT
925MB/850MB SHOULD APPROACH 30-40 KTS BETWEEN 29/0600-0900 UTC.
THESE TRAJECTORIES SHOULD BRING A PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE
ALONG THE MX COAST AND INTO S TX OVERNIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
SHOULD BE DEEPEST AT TERMINALS BETWEEN THE US-281 AND IH-69E/US-77
CORRIDORS.

MY INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST.
MECHANICAL MIXING IN THIS LAYER (AND JUST ABOVE A FORECAST SHALLOW
THERMAL INVERSION) SHOULD LARGELY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FG...AND INSTEAD ALLOW FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO BE REDUCED (PRIMARILY)
DUE TO LOW CIGS. WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING TREND IN THE TAFS FOR
NOW AND WAIT FOR THIS EVENING`S KBRO SOUNDING TO SEE HOW THINGS
ARE EVOLVING.

THE LOW CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 29/1500 UTC OR SO...WHEN
MECHANICAL MIXING AIDS IN IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES. THIS
SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN STRONG/GUSTY SE WINDS THROUGH 30/0000 UTC.
GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. /53/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE BAJA MEXICO REGION WILL MOVE EASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN LEE
TROUGHING TO OUR WEST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM AFTER SUNSET
REACHING 35 KNOTS AROUND 2K FEET. THIS WILL HELP DRAW UP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MAY ACTUALLY HINDER FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER THE NAM IS
HINTING AT A STRONG INVERSION ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS AT THE SFC
LESS THAN 6 KNOTS IN PARTS OF THE AREA. BELIEVE PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN MOST FOG PRONE AREAS /MAINLY NORTH OF THE VALLEY AND
ACROSS LARGE GRASSY AREAS/ BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
FOG WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO TURBULENCE AROUND THE INVERSION LAYER.

AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY...CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO
BREAK BY MID MORNING ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 9AM WITH GUSTS 25-30
MPH POSSIBLE IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...THE STRONGER
OF THE WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. HIGHS
WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WITH MIXING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...REACHING CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE CROSSING THE
TEXAS BIG BEND LATER IN THE NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP BUT SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
ACROSS THE COAST AND PERHAPS AROUND THE LAGUNA MADRE. LOW LEVEL JET
SETS UP AGAIN AND SURFACE WINDS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER OVERNIGHT AS
COMPARED TO TONIGHT SO NO BIG CONCERNS FOR FOG. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND WILL HOLD SILENT POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND COASTAL WATERS AS A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
AND IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...LOWS WILL JUST FALL TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S. /55/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE BROAD 500 MB FLOW PATTERN
WILL BE TRANSITIONING FROM A SOMEWHAT ZONAL PATTERN ON SUNDAY TO A
BROAD RIDGING PATTERN MON AND TUES WITH THE RIDGING STARTING TO
SHIFT EAST AND FLATTENING OUT SOMEWHAT THURS AND FRI. 500 MB
TROFFING WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGIONS ON MON WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
DEEP SOUTH TX LATE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY CAA IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT WILL BE PRETTY SHORT LIVED WITH THE SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTING AROUND FROM THE E-SE WED NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST. WAA WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE REGION THURS AND FRI
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED FURTHER EAST. THE FAIRLY
FAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION
PRETTY LIMITED THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING LONGER RANGE PERIOD. SO
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF 20 TO 30 % POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MARINE AND COASTAL REGIONS THROUGH THURS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD. PRETTY LOW QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

WITH SOME FORM OF WEAK TO MODERATE 500 MB RIDGING PREVAILING FOR
MUCH OF THE LONGER TERM PERIOD EXPECT OVERALL TEMP TRENDS TO
REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE NOV FOR THE MOST PART. THE
EXCEPTION DURING THE LONGER TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUES AFTER THE
FROPA WHEN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND
OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR LONG TERM TEMPS. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE GFS MEX MOS WILL IS PRETTY STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS
BOTH FOR TEMPS AND POPS. THE LATEST ECMWF RUN IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS 500 MB FIELDS UP THROUGH AROUND WED. THE
AGREEMENT IN THE 500 MB PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE HAZY FOR THURS
AND FRI. OVERAL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS
GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE DESPITE THE WIDER MODEL DISAGREEMENT LATER
NEXT WEEK. /60/

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH GULF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOWER
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH LEE TROUGHING
STRETCHING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHENING FROM LIGHT TO BREEZY. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF
TONIGHT... WITH POSSIBLE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON THE BAY AND ON THE GULF SATURDAY. AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP...A
FEW COASTAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AS WELL. /55/

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH SUN AND
SUN NIGHT TO RESULT IN NEAR SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG SE MARINE
WINDS. THE PGF WILL THEN WEAKEN MON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTH. THEN CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEGRADE ONCE
AGAIN MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA AS
STRONGER N-NE WINDS BUILD OVER THE GULF WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUES MORNING BUT SCEC
CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE LIKELY. THE PGS THEN WEAKENS ONCE AGAIN
TUES NIGHT INTO WED ALLOWING FOR CALMER MARINE CONDITIONS TOWARDS
THE END OF THE CWF PERIOD. /60/

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM... BUTTS
LONG TERM... TOMASELLI
PSU/GRAPHICAST... MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 282111
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
311 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE BAJA MEXICO REGION WILL MOVE EASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN LEE
TROUGHING TO OUR WEST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM AFTER SUNSET
REACHING 35 KNOTS AROUND 2K FEET. THIS WILL HELP DRAW UP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MAY ACTUALLY HINDER FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER THE NAM IS
HINTING AT A STRONG INVERSION ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS AT THE SFC
LESS THAN 6 KNOTS IN PARTS OF THE AREA. BELIEVE PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN MOST FOG PRONE AREAS /MAINLY NORTH OF THE VALLEY AND
ACROSS LARGE GRASSY AREAS/ BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
FOG WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO TURBULENCE AROUND THE INVERSION LAYER.

AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY...CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO
BREAK BY MID MORNING ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 9AM WITH GUSTS 25-30
MPH POSSIBLE IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...THE STRONGER
OF THE WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. HIGHS
WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WITH MIXING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...REACHING CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE CROSSING THE
TEXAS BIG BEND LATER IN THE NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP BUT SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
ACROSS THE COAST AND PERHAPS AROUND THE LAGUNA MADRE. LOW LEVEL JET
SETS UP AGAIN AND SURFACE WINDS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER OVERNIGHT AS
COMPARED TO TONIGHT SO NO BIG CONCERNS FOR FOG. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND WILL HOLD SILENT POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND COASTAL WATERS AS A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
AND IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...LOWS WILL JUST FALL TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE BROAD 500 MB FLOW PATTERN
WILL BE TRANSITIONING FROM A SOMEWHAT ZONAL PATTERN ON SUNDAY TO A
BROAD RIDGING PATTERN MON AND TUES WITH THE RIDGING STARTING TO
SHIFT EAST AND FLATTENING OUT SOMEWHAT THURS AND FRI. 500 MB
TROFFING WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGIONS ON MON WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
DEEP SOUTH TX LATE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY CAA IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT WILL BE PRETTY SHORT LIVED WITH THE SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTING AROUND FROM THE E-SE WED NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST. WAA WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE REGION THURS AND FRI
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED FURTHER EAST. THE FAIRLY
FAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION
PRETTY LIMITED THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING LONGER RANGE PERIOD. SO
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF 20 TO 30 % POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MARINE AND COASTAL REGIONS THROUGH THURS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD. PRETTY LOW QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

WITH SOME FORM OF WEAK TO MODERATE 500 MB RIDGING PREVAILING FOR
MUCH OF THE LONGER TERM PERIOD EXPECT OVERALL TEMP TRENDS TO
REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE NOV FOR THE MOST PART. THE
EXCEPTION DURING THE LONGER TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUES AFTER THE
FROPA WHEN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND
OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR LONG TERM TEMPS. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE GFS MEX MOS WILL IS PRETTY STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS
BOTH FOR TEMPS AND POPS. THE LATEST ECMWF RUN IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS 500 MB FIELDS UP THROUGH AROUND WED. THE
AGREEMENT IN THE 500 MB PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE HAZY FOR THURS
AND FRI. OVERAL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS
GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE DESPITE THE WIDER MODEL DISAGREEMENT LATER
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH GULF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOWER
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH LEE TROUGHING
STRETCHING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHENING FROM LIGHT TO BREEZY. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF
TONIGHT... WITH POSSIBLE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON THE BAY AND ON THE GULF SATURDAY. AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP...A
FEW COASTAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AS WELL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH SUN AND
SUN NIGHT TO RESULT IN NEAR SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG SE MARINE
WINDS. THE PGF WILL THEN WEAKEN MON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTH. THEN CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEGRADE ONCE
AGAIN MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA AS
STRONGER N-NE WINDS BUILD OVER THE GULF WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUES MORNING BUT SCEC
CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE LIKELY. THE PGS THEN WEAKENS ONCE AGAIN
TUES NIGHT INTO WED ALLOWING FOR CALMER MARINE CONDITIONS TOWARDS
THE END OF THE CWF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  63  76  67  76 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          60  79  66  80 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            57  79  64  82 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              58  80  65  83 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      55  79  60  83 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   67  75  70  75 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 282111
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
311 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE BAJA MEXICO REGION WILL MOVE EASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN LEE
TROUGHING TO OUR WEST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM AFTER SUNSET
REACHING 35 KNOTS AROUND 2K FEET. THIS WILL HELP DRAW UP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MAY ACTUALLY HINDER FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER THE NAM IS
HINTING AT A STRONG INVERSION ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS AT THE SFC
LESS THAN 6 KNOTS IN PARTS OF THE AREA. BELIEVE PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN MOST FOG PRONE AREAS /MAINLY NORTH OF THE VALLEY AND
ACROSS LARGE GRASSY AREAS/ BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
FOG WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO TURBULENCE AROUND THE INVERSION LAYER.

AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY...CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO
BREAK BY MID MORNING ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 9AM WITH GUSTS 25-30
MPH POSSIBLE IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...THE STRONGER
OF THE WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. HIGHS
WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WITH MIXING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...REACHING CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE CROSSING THE
TEXAS BIG BEND LATER IN THE NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP BUT SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
ACROSS THE COAST AND PERHAPS AROUND THE LAGUNA MADRE. LOW LEVEL JET
SETS UP AGAIN AND SURFACE WINDS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER OVERNIGHT AS
COMPARED TO TONIGHT SO NO BIG CONCERNS FOR FOG. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND WILL HOLD SILENT POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND COASTAL WATERS AS A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
AND IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...LOWS WILL JUST FALL TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE BROAD 500 MB FLOW PATTERN
WILL BE TRANSITIONING FROM A SOMEWHAT ZONAL PATTERN ON SUNDAY TO A
BROAD RIDGING PATTERN MON AND TUES WITH THE RIDGING STARTING TO
SHIFT EAST AND FLATTENING OUT SOMEWHAT THURS AND FRI. 500 MB
TROFFING WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGIONS ON MON WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
DEEP SOUTH TX LATE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY CAA IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT WILL BE PRETTY SHORT LIVED WITH THE SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTING AROUND FROM THE E-SE WED NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST. WAA WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE REGION THURS AND FRI
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED FURTHER EAST. THE FAIRLY
FAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION
PRETTY LIMITED THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING LONGER RANGE PERIOD. SO
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF 20 TO 30 % POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MARINE AND COASTAL REGIONS THROUGH THURS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD. PRETTY LOW QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

WITH SOME FORM OF WEAK TO MODERATE 500 MB RIDGING PREVAILING FOR
MUCH OF THE LONGER TERM PERIOD EXPECT OVERALL TEMP TRENDS TO
REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE NOV FOR THE MOST PART. THE
EXCEPTION DURING THE LONGER TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUES AFTER THE
FROPA WHEN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND
OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR LONG TERM TEMPS. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE GFS MEX MOS WILL IS PRETTY STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS
BOTH FOR TEMPS AND POPS. THE LATEST ECMWF RUN IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS 500 MB FIELDS UP THROUGH AROUND WED. THE
AGREEMENT IN THE 500 MB PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE HAZY FOR THURS
AND FRI. OVERAL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS
GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE DESPITE THE WIDER MODEL DISAGREEMENT LATER
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH GULF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOWER
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH LEE TROUGHING
STRETCHING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHENING FROM LIGHT TO BREEZY. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF
TONIGHT... WITH POSSIBLE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON THE BAY AND ON THE GULF SATURDAY. AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP...A
FEW COASTAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AS WELL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH SUN AND
SUN NIGHT TO RESULT IN NEAR SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG SE MARINE
WINDS. THE PGF WILL THEN WEAKEN MON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTH. THEN CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEGRADE ONCE
AGAIN MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA AS
STRONGER N-NE WINDS BUILD OVER THE GULF WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUES MORNING BUT SCEC
CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE LIKELY. THE PGS THEN WEAKENS ONCE AGAIN
TUES NIGHT INTO WED ALLOWING FOR CALMER MARINE CONDITIONS TOWARDS
THE END OF THE CWF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  63  76  67  76 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          60  79  66  80 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            57  79  64  82 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              58  80  65  83 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      55  79  60  83 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   67  75  70  75 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 281749
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1149 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A FEW MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. FOG AND LOW
CIGS WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AFTER 6Z AT THE TAF SITES. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO OUR WEST. THESE LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY NEGATE DENSE FOG FORMATION
BUT LOW CIGS WILL DEVELOP IF FOG DOES NOT FORM. IFR/MVFR CONDS
WILL LAST THROUGH 15Z AT WHICH TIME STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL
OCCUR. GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE 15-18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...AREA WIDE FOG IS BEING DIFFICULT AS VISIBILITY BOUNCES
AROUND A BIT. THE THICKEST FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS AT BRO
NEAR THE COAST...WHICH SHOWS A HALF MILE THOUGH IT HAS BEEN AT A
QUARTER OF A MILE. HRL IS AROUND A MILE RIGHT NOW BUT WAS ALSO AT
A QUARTER OF A MILE EARLIER. MFE IS ALSO AT AROUND A MILE BUT IS
BOUNCING TO THREE MILES. AT ANY RATE...ALL THREE SITES SHOW IFR OR
LESS...AND SOME FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS AND
MAY EVEN HANG ON IN SPOTS UNTIL MID MORNING. THE REST OF THE DAY
LOOKS FINE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A BIT MORE WIND TONIGHT WILL MODERATE FOG
POTENTIAL IN LIGHT OF UPWARD TRENDING DEW POINTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE NORTH GULF. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS PRESSURE ALSO FALLS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN
ACROSS THE COUNTRY...WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A WEAK
TROUGH OVER NORTH MEXICO BY SATURDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SEASONAL FOR THE MOST PART. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE SUPPORTING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR FOG...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION GOING FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST
PACKAGE. A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG...BUT ANY PERSISTENT
FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SOON AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RISE
INTO THE MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS WHILE
THE COAST MAY SEE TEMPS IN THE MID 60S. SLOWLY RISING AVERAGE DEW
POINT TEMPS WILL HELP PLACE A FLOOR ON LOW TEMPS...AND THEY WILL BE
ABOUT NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH
TEMPS SATURDAY WILL REFLECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
NEAR THE COAST AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS. FOG
APPEARS LESS LIKELY SAT MORNING DUE IN PART TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS.

A MODEL BLEND PRESERVED CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICE...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EVOLVING GRADUALLY
ANYWAY...SO NOTHING OTHERWISE WAS REALLY EXPECTED. POP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE...OR AT LEAST SILENT...WITH A COASTAL SHOWER OR
TWO ON SATURDAY THE MAIN THREAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STEP DOWN A FEW MPH ON SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE ABOUT 78 TO 82. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER LAYER WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST BUT DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL VERY LIKELY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH POR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN SO KEPT POPS OVER
LAND LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE BETTER
COVERAGE OVER THE GULF. THE FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING HOURS
ON MONDAY. 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT BUT AS HAS BEEN NOTED
IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN IS A LITTLE
MARGINAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH SO WOULD
NOT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE LESS PROGRESSIVE FRONT IN
COMING RUNS. WITH GOOD OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT HOWEVER
DID KEEP A COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE FORECAST AND LOWERED MAX
TEMPS ON TUESDAY DOWN INTO MID TO UPPER 60S.

EXPECTING COASTAL TROUGHING TO SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
KEPT LOW END PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES DO REBOUND A BIT THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE ONLY REAL LAYER OF MOISTURE WITHIN A FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE
SURFACE SO EVEN A PERSISTENT STRATUS LAYER...WHICH IS PRETTY
UNLIKELY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DAYTIME HEATING.

RIDGING SETS BACK UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
PM/THURSDAY AM RETURNING EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA
AMID STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES. KEPT PRECIP CHANCES LOW AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. /68-JGG/

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH GULF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOWER
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHENING FROM LIGHT TO BREEZY. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF TONIGHT...
WITH POSSIBLE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE BAY AND
ON THE GULF SATURDAY. AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP...A FEW COASTAL
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MORE MODERATE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FRONT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MORE MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING
BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55






000
FXUS64 KBRO 281749
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1149 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A FEW MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. FOG AND LOW
CIGS WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AFTER 6Z AT THE TAF SITES. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO OUR WEST. THESE LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY NEGATE DENSE FOG FORMATION
BUT LOW CIGS WILL DEVELOP IF FOG DOES NOT FORM. IFR/MVFR CONDS
WILL LAST THROUGH 15Z AT WHICH TIME STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL
OCCUR. GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE 15-18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...AREA WIDE FOG IS BEING DIFFICULT AS VISIBILITY BOUNCES
AROUND A BIT. THE THICKEST FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS AT BRO
NEAR THE COAST...WHICH SHOWS A HALF MILE THOUGH IT HAS BEEN AT A
QUARTER OF A MILE. HRL IS AROUND A MILE RIGHT NOW BUT WAS ALSO AT
A QUARTER OF A MILE EARLIER. MFE IS ALSO AT AROUND A MILE BUT IS
BOUNCING TO THREE MILES. AT ANY RATE...ALL THREE SITES SHOW IFR OR
LESS...AND SOME FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS AND
MAY EVEN HANG ON IN SPOTS UNTIL MID MORNING. THE REST OF THE DAY
LOOKS FINE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A BIT MORE WIND TONIGHT WILL MODERATE FOG
POTENTIAL IN LIGHT OF UPWARD TRENDING DEW POINTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE NORTH GULF. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS PRESSURE ALSO FALLS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN
ACROSS THE COUNTRY...WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A WEAK
TROUGH OVER NORTH MEXICO BY SATURDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SEASONAL FOR THE MOST PART. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE SUPPORTING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR FOG...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION GOING FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST
PACKAGE. A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG...BUT ANY PERSISTENT
FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SOON AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RISE
INTO THE MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS WHILE
THE COAST MAY SEE TEMPS IN THE MID 60S. SLOWLY RISING AVERAGE DEW
POINT TEMPS WILL HELP PLACE A FLOOR ON LOW TEMPS...AND THEY WILL BE
ABOUT NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH
TEMPS SATURDAY WILL REFLECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
NEAR THE COAST AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS. FOG
APPEARS LESS LIKELY SAT MORNING DUE IN PART TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS.

A MODEL BLEND PRESERVED CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICE...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EVOLVING GRADUALLY
ANYWAY...SO NOTHING OTHERWISE WAS REALLY EXPECTED. POP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE...OR AT LEAST SILENT...WITH A COASTAL SHOWER OR
TWO ON SATURDAY THE MAIN THREAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STEP DOWN A FEW MPH ON SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE ABOUT 78 TO 82. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER LAYER WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST BUT DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL VERY LIKELY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH POR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN SO KEPT POPS OVER
LAND LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE BETTER
COVERAGE OVER THE GULF. THE FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING HOURS
ON MONDAY. 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT BUT AS HAS BEEN NOTED
IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN IS A LITTLE
MARGINAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH SO WOULD
NOT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE LESS PROGRESSIVE FRONT IN
COMING RUNS. WITH GOOD OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT HOWEVER
DID KEEP A COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE FORECAST AND LOWERED MAX
TEMPS ON TUESDAY DOWN INTO MID TO UPPER 60S.

EXPECTING COASTAL TROUGHING TO SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
KEPT LOW END PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES DO REBOUND A BIT THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE ONLY REAL LAYER OF MOISTURE WITHIN A FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE
SURFACE SO EVEN A PERSISTENT STRATUS LAYER...WHICH IS PRETTY
UNLIKELY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DAYTIME HEATING.

RIDGING SETS BACK UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
PM/THURSDAY AM RETURNING EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA
AMID STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES. KEPT PRECIP CHANCES LOW AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. /68-JGG/

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH GULF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOWER
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHENING FROM LIGHT TO BREEZY. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF TONIGHT...
WITH POSSIBLE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE BAY AND
ON THE GULF SATURDAY. AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP...A FEW COASTAL
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MORE MODERATE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FRONT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MORE MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING
BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55







000
FXUS64 KBRO 281130 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
530 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AREA WIDE FOG IS BEING DIFFICULT AS VISIBILITY BOUNCES
AROUND A BIT. THE THICKEST FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS AT BRO
NEAR THE COAST...WHICH SHOWS A HALF MILE THOUGH IT HAS BEEN AT A
QUARTER OF A MILE. HRL IS AROUND A MILE RIGHT NOW BUT WAS ALSO AT
A QUARTER OF A MILE EARLIER. MFE IS ALSO AT AROUND A MILE BUT IS
BOUNCING TO THREE MILES. AT ANY RATE...ALL THREE SITES SHOW IFR OR
LESS...AND SOME FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS AND
MAY EVEN HANG ON IN SPOTS UNTIL MID MORNING. THE REST OF THE DAY
LOOKS FINE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A BIT MORE WIND TONIGHT WILL MODERATE FOG
POTENTIAL IN LIGHT OF UPWARD TRENDING DEW POINTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE NORTH GULF. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS PRESSURE ALSO FALLS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN
ACROSS THE COUNTRY...WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A WEAK
TROUGH OVER NORTH MEXICO BY SATURDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SEASONAL FOR THE MOST PART. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE SUPPORTING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR FOG...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION GOING FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST
PACKAGE. A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG...BUT ANY PERSISTENT
FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SOON AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RISE
INTO THE MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS WHILE
THE COAST MAY SEE TEMPS IN THE MID 60S. SLOWLY RISING AVERAGE DEW
POINT TEMPS WILL HELP PLACE A FLOOR ON LOW TEMPS...AND THEY WILL BE
ABOUT NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH
TEMPS SATURDAY WILL REFLECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
NEAR THE COAST AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS. FOG
APPEARS LESS LIKELY SAT MORNING DUE IN PART TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS.

A MODEL BLEND PRESERVED CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICE...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EVOLVING GRADUALLY
ANYWAY...SO NOTHING OTHERWISE WAS REALLY EXPECTED. POP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE...OR AT LEAST SILENT...WITH A COASTAL SHOWER OR
TWO ON SATURDAY THE MAIN THREAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STEP DOWN A FEW MPH ON SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE ABOUT 78 TO 82. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER LAYER WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST BUT DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL VERY LIKELY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH POR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN SO KEPT POPS OVER
LAND LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE BETTER
COVERAGE OVER THE GULF. THE FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING HOURS
ON MONDAY. 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT BUT AS HAS BEEN NOTED
IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN IS A LITTLE
MARGINAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH SO WOULD
NOT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE LESS PROGRESSIVE FRONT IN
COMING RUNS. WITH GOOD OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT HOWEVER
DID KEEP A COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE FORECAST AND LOWERED MAX
TEMPS ON TUESDAY DOWN INTO MID TO UPPER 60S.

EXPECTING COASTAL TROUGHING TO SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
KEPT LOW END PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES DO REBOUND A BIT THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE ONLY REAL LAYER OF MOISTURE WITHIN A FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE
SURFACE SO EVEN A PERSISTENT STRATUS LAYER...WHICH IS PRETTY
UNLIKELY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DAYTIME HEATING.

RIDGING SETS BACK UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
PM/THURSDAY AM RETURNING EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA
AMID STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES. KEPT PRECIP CHANCES LOW AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. /68-JGG/

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH GULF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOWER
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHENING FROM LIGHT TO BREEZY. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF TONIGHT...
WITH POSSIBLE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE BAY AND
ON THE GULF SATURDAY. AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP...A FEW COASTAL
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MORE MODERATE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FRONT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MORE MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING
BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68






000
FXUS64 KBRO 281130 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
530 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AREA WIDE FOG IS BEING DIFFICULT AS VISIBILITY BOUNCES
AROUND A BIT. THE THICKEST FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS AT BRO
NEAR THE COAST...WHICH SHOWS A HALF MILE THOUGH IT HAS BEEN AT A
QUARTER OF A MILE. HRL IS AROUND A MILE RIGHT NOW BUT WAS ALSO AT
A QUARTER OF A MILE EARLIER. MFE IS ALSO AT AROUND A MILE BUT IS
BOUNCING TO THREE MILES. AT ANY RATE...ALL THREE SITES SHOW IFR OR
LESS...AND SOME FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS AND
MAY EVEN HANG ON IN SPOTS UNTIL MID MORNING. THE REST OF THE DAY
LOOKS FINE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A BIT MORE WIND TONIGHT WILL MODERATE FOG
POTENTIAL IN LIGHT OF UPWARD TRENDING DEW POINTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE NORTH GULF. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS PRESSURE ALSO FALLS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN
ACROSS THE COUNTRY...WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A WEAK
TROUGH OVER NORTH MEXICO BY SATURDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SEASONAL FOR THE MOST PART. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE SUPPORTING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR FOG...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION GOING FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST
PACKAGE. A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG...BUT ANY PERSISTENT
FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SOON AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RISE
INTO THE MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS WHILE
THE COAST MAY SEE TEMPS IN THE MID 60S. SLOWLY RISING AVERAGE DEW
POINT TEMPS WILL HELP PLACE A FLOOR ON LOW TEMPS...AND THEY WILL BE
ABOUT NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH
TEMPS SATURDAY WILL REFLECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
NEAR THE COAST AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS. FOG
APPEARS LESS LIKELY SAT MORNING DUE IN PART TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS.

A MODEL BLEND PRESERVED CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICE...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EVOLVING GRADUALLY
ANYWAY...SO NOTHING OTHERWISE WAS REALLY EXPECTED. POP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE...OR AT LEAST SILENT...WITH A COASTAL SHOWER OR
TWO ON SATURDAY THE MAIN THREAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STEP DOWN A FEW MPH ON SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE ABOUT 78 TO 82. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER LAYER WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST BUT DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL VERY LIKELY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH POR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN SO KEPT POPS OVER
LAND LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE BETTER
COVERAGE OVER THE GULF. THE FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING HOURS
ON MONDAY. 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT BUT AS HAS BEEN NOTED
IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN IS A LITTLE
MARGINAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH SO WOULD
NOT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE LESS PROGRESSIVE FRONT IN
COMING RUNS. WITH GOOD OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT HOWEVER
DID KEEP A COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE FORECAST AND LOWERED MAX
TEMPS ON TUESDAY DOWN INTO MID TO UPPER 60S.

EXPECTING COASTAL TROUGHING TO SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
KEPT LOW END PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES DO REBOUND A BIT THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE ONLY REAL LAYER OF MOISTURE WITHIN A FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE
SURFACE SO EVEN A PERSISTENT STRATUS LAYER...WHICH IS PRETTY
UNLIKELY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DAYTIME HEATING.

RIDGING SETS BACK UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
PM/THURSDAY AM RETURNING EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA
AMID STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES. KEPT PRECIP CHANCES LOW AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. /68-JGG/

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH GULF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOWER
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHENING FROM LIGHT TO BREEZY. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF TONIGHT...
WITH POSSIBLE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE BAY AND
ON THE GULF SATURDAY. AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP...A FEW COASTAL
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MORE MODERATE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FRONT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MORE MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING
BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68







000
FXUS64 KBRO 280919
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
319 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE NORTH GULF. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS PRESSURE ALSO FALLS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN
ACROSS THE COUNTRY...WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A WEAK
TROUGH OVER NORTH MEXICO BY SATURDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SEASONAL FOR THE MOST PART. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE SUPPORTING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR FOG...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION GOING FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST
PACKAGE. A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG...BUT ANY PERSISTENT
FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SOON AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RISE
INTO THE MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS WHILE
THE COAST MAY SEE TEMPS IN THE MID 60S. SLOWLY RISING AVERAGE DEW
POINT TEMPS WILL HELP PLACE A FLOOR ON LOW TEMPS...AND THEY WILL BE
ABOUT NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH
TEMPS SATURDAY WILL REFLECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
NEAR THE COAST AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS. FOG
APPEARS LESS LIKELY SAT MORNING DUE IN PART TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS.

A MODEL BLEND PRESERVED CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICE...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EVOLVING GRADUALLY
ANYWAY...SO NOTHING OTHERWISE WAS REALLY EXPECTED. POP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE...OR AT LEAST SILENT...WITH A COASTAL SHOWER OR
TWO ON SATURDAY THE MAIN THREAT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STEP DOWN A FEW MPH ON SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE ABOUT 78 TO 82. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER LAYER WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST BUT DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL VERY LIKELY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH POR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN SO KEPT POPS OVER
LAND LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE BETTER
COVERAGE OVER THE GULF. THE FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING HOURS
ON MONDAY. 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT BUT AS HAS BEEN NOTED
IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN IS A LITTLE
MARGINAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH SO WOULD
NOT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE LESS PROGRESSIVE FRONT IN
COMING RUNS. WITH GOOD OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT HOWEVER
DID KEEP A COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE FORECAST AND LOWERED MAX
TEMPS ON TUESDAY DOWN INTO MID TO UPPER 60S.

EXPECTING COASTAL TROUGHING TO SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
KEPT LOW END PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES DO REBOUND A BIT THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE ONLY REAL LAYER OF MOISTURE WITHIN A FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE
SURFACE SO EVEN A PERSISTENT STRATUS LAYER...WHICH IS PRETTY
UNLIKELY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DAYTIME HEATING.

RIDGING SETS BACK UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
PM/THURSDAY AM RETURNING EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA
AMID STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES. KEPT PRECIP CHANCES LOW AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH GULF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOWER
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHENING FROM LIGHT TO BREEZY. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF TONIGHT...
WITH POSSIBLE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE BAY AND
ON THE GULF SATURDAY. AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP...A FEW COASTAL
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MORE MODERATE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FRONT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MORE MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING
BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  75  63  77  67 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  61  77  66 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            78  59  78  64 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              79  58  79  63 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  55  79  60 /  10  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  67  76  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68







000
FXUS64 KBRO 280919
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
319 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE NORTH GULF. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS PRESSURE ALSO FALLS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN
ACROSS THE COUNTRY...WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A WEAK
TROUGH OVER NORTH MEXICO BY SATURDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SEASONAL FOR THE MOST PART. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE SUPPORTING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR FOG...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION GOING FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST
PACKAGE. A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG...BUT ANY PERSISTENT
FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SOON AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RISE
INTO THE MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS WHILE
THE COAST MAY SEE TEMPS IN THE MID 60S. SLOWLY RISING AVERAGE DEW
POINT TEMPS WILL HELP PLACE A FLOOR ON LOW TEMPS...AND THEY WILL BE
ABOUT NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH
TEMPS SATURDAY WILL REFLECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
NEAR THE COAST AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS. FOG
APPEARS LESS LIKELY SAT MORNING DUE IN PART TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS.

A MODEL BLEND PRESERVED CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICE...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EVOLVING GRADUALLY
ANYWAY...SO NOTHING OTHERWISE WAS REALLY EXPECTED. POP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE...OR AT LEAST SILENT...WITH A COASTAL SHOWER OR
TWO ON SATURDAY THE MAIN THREAT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STEP DOWN A FEW MPH ON SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE ABOUT 78 TO 82. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER LAYER WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST BUT DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL VERY LIKELY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH POR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN SO KEPT POPS OVER
LAND LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE BETTER
COVERAGE OVER THE GULF. THE FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING HOURS
ON MONDAY. 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT BUT AS HAS BEEN NOTED
IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN IS A LITTLE
MARGINAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH SO WOULD
NOT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE LESS PROGRESSIVE FRONT IN
COMING RUNS. WITH GOOD OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT HOWEVER
DID KEEP A COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE FORECAST AND LOWERED MAX
TEMPS ON TUESDAY DOWN INTO MID TO UPPER 60S.

EXPECTING COASTAL TROUGHING TO SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
KEPT LOW END PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES DO REBOUND A BIT THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE ONLY REAL LAYER OF MOISTURE WITHIN A FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE
SURFACE SO EVEN A PERSISTENT STRATUS LAYER...WHICH IS PRETTY
UNLIKELY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DAYTIME HEATING.

RIDGING SETS BACK UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
PM/THURSDAY AM RETURNING EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA
AMID STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES. KEPT PRECIP CHANCES LOW AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH GULF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOWER
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHENING FROM LIGHT TO BREEZY. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF TONIGHT...
WITH POSSIBLE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE BAY AND
ON THE GULF SATURDAY. AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP...A FEW COASTAL
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MORE MODERATE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FRONT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MORE MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING
BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  75  63  77  67 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  61  77  66 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            78  59  78  64 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              79  58  79  63 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  55  79  60 /  10  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  67  76  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68






000
FXUS64 KBRO 280505 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1105 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BRO ASOS AND VISUAL CONFIRMATION INDICATES THAT FOG
IS FORMING WITHIN PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...ESPECIALLY WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS DECREASING. ADDED
FORMATION A COUPLE OF HOURS FROM NOW BASED UPON THIS TREND...AND
INCREASED FOG DENSITY BASED UPON OBSERVATIONS FROM LAST NIGHT...
WHEN 1/2SM FG AND 1/4SM FG WAS OBSERVED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT BRO
AND HRL. ADJUSTED TIMING AND INTENSITY FOR FOG AT MFE AS WELL...
WITH RESULTS NOT AS SEVERE AS BRO/HRL...WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR IF THE DENSER FOG FORMATION PANS OUT. TOMORROW...VFR WILL
PREVAIL UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MODERATE SURFACE WINDS.
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FORMATION
OF FOG AND ALLOW VFR TO KEEP GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...ISSUED AN UPDATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT/S LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATED THAT DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WERE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE EXPECTED
MINIMUMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THUS...INCREASED LOW
TEMPERATURES BY TWO DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE BRO CWFA. ALSO...
BRO ASOS ALREADY HAS 1/4SM FG...AND WITH AMBIENT TEMPERATURES
HEADING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA...
STARTED THE FOG A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AND A RELATIVELY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...INCOMING SHIFT MAY NEED TO WEIGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CUMULUS FIELD IS CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST AND SHOULD
BE COMPLETELY GONE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. EXPECT WINDS TO BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORMATION OF LIGHT FOG
FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO MODERATE LEVELS TOMORROW UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERALL...
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. PURE
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL STEADILY SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN OF WAA OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO ALSO START REBOUNDING AS
THE FLOW STARTS COMING OFF OF THE GULF OF MEX. THE RETURNING
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ALLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING WAS
STILL VERY PARCHED THIS MORNING WITH A PWAT OF 0.46 INCHES. EVEN
WITH THE RETURNING SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO ALLOW MUCH OF A POTENTIAL FOR POPS OR EVEN
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER.

THE MAV...MET AND ECMWF SHORT TERM TEMP GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT VERSUS YESTERDAYS RUNS. THE MAV IS NOT SHOWING THE COOL
BIAS THAT IT INDICATED YESTERDAY. SO WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF
THE SHORT TERM TEMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH FEW CHANGES MADE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN TO CREEP IN TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE LONG TERM.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEKEND WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...MILD TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING MOISTURE. IT WILL BE  A
LITTLE BREEZY SATURDAY WITH WINDS RELAXING FOR SUNDAY. A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
SUNDAY BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE RELEGATED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY MORNING WITH
STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES MONDAY. AS THE FRONT SAGS
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...ENOUGH CONVERGENCE COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY.

FROM THIS POINT FORWARD THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MURKY. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SHOW DECENT COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WEDNESDAY WHICH LASTS INTO THURSDAY
WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS WARMING WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF. LOOKING AT THE MID LEVELS...GFS MAINTAINS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH A DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST. ECMWF IS
TRENDING TOWARDS HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR AREA BUT MAINTAINS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IMPLYING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL EDGE
TOWARDS THE GFS DUE TO CONSISTENCY AND THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF MAY
BE TRENDING TOWARDS A INCREASING ZONAL FLOW IN LATER RUNS WITH LESS
COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE KEEPING A
LITTLE MORE WEIGHT ON THE GFS SIDE.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A GENERAL LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO
THE SE ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE PGF REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK UNTIL FRI
NIGHT WHEN THE GRADIENT MAY STRENGTHEN UP ENOUGH TO PUSH
CONDITIONS UP CLOSE TO SCEC CRIT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXERCISE CAUTION IS ALMOST CERTAIN DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND PASS BY SUNDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
RELAXING TO MODERATE LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT RIGHT NOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68







000
FXUS64 KBRO 280505 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1105 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BRO ASOS AND VISUAL CONFIRMATION INDICATES THAT FOG
IS FORMING WITHIN PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...ESPECIALLY WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS DECREASING. ADDED
FORMATION A COUPLE OF HOURS FROM NOW BASED UPON THIS TREND...AND
INCREASED FOG DENSITY BASED UPON OBSERVATIONS FROM LAST NIGHT...
WHEN 1/2SM FG AND 1/4SM FG WAS OBSERVED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT BRO
AND HRL. ADJUSTED TIMING AND INTENSITY FOR FOG AT MFE AS WELL...
WITH RESULTS NOT AS SEVERE AS BRO/HRL...WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR IF THE DENSER FOG FORMATION PANS OUT. TOMORROW...VFR WILL
PREVAIL UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MODERATE SURFACE WINDS.
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FORMATION
OF FOG AND ALLOW VFR TO KEEP GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...ISSUED AN UPDATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT/S LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATED THAT DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WERE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE EXPECTED
MINIMUMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THUS...INCREASED LOW
TEMPERATURES BY TWO DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE BRO CWFA. ALSO...
BRO ASOS ALREADY HAS 1/4SM FG...AND WITH AMBIENT TEMPERATURES
HEADING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA...
STARTED THE FOG A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AND A RELATIVELY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...INCOMING SHIFT MAY NEED TO WEIGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CUMULUS FIELD IS CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST AND SHOULD
BE COMPLETELY GONE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. EXPECT WINDS TO BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORMATION OF LIGHT FOG
FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO MODERATE LEVELS TOMORROW UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERALL...
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. PURE
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL STEADILY SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN OF WAA OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO ALSO START REBOUNDING AS
THE FLOW STARTS COMING OFF OF THE GULF OF MEX. THE RETURNING
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ALLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING WAS
STILL VERY PARCHED THIS MORNING WITH A PWAT OF 0.46 INCHES. EVEN
WITH THE RETURNING SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO ALLOW MUCH OF A POTENTIAL FOR POPS OR EVEN
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER.

THE MAV...MET AND ECMWF SHORT TERM TEMP GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT VERSUS YESTERDAYS RUNS. THE MAV IS NOT SHOWING THE COOL
BIAS THAT IT INDICATED YESTERDAY. SO WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF
THE SHORT TERM TEMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH FEW CHANGES MADE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN TO CREEP IN TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE LONG TERM.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEKEND WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...MILD TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING MOISTURE. IT WILL BE  A
LITTLE BREEZY SATURDAY WITH WINDS RELAXING FOR SUNDAY. A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
SUNDAY BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE RELEGATED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY MORNING WITH
STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES MONDAY. AS THE FRONT SAGS
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...ENOUGH CONVERGENCE COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY.

FROM THIS POINT FORWARD THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MURKY. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SHOW DECENT COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WEDNESDAY WHICH LASTS INTO THURSDAY
WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS WARMING WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF. LOOKING AT THE MID LEVELS...GFS MAINTAINS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH A DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST. ECMWF IS
TRENDING TOWARDS HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR AREA BUT MAINTAINS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IMPLYING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL EDGE
TOWARDS THE GFS DUE TO CONSISTENCY AND THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF MAY
BE TRENDING TOWARDS A INCREASING ZONAL FLOW IN LATER RUNS WITH LESS
COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE KEEPING A
LITTLE MORE WEIGHT ON THE GFS SIDE.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A GENERAL LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO
THE SE ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE PGF REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK UNTIL FRI
NIGHT WHEN THE GRADIENT MAY STRENGTHEN UP ENOUGH TO PUSH
CONDITIONS UP CLOSE TO SCEC CRIT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXERCISE CAUTION IS ALMOST CERTAIN DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND PASS BY SUNDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
RELAXING TO MODERATE LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT RIGHT NOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68






000
FXUS64 KBRO 280412 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1012 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISSUED AN UPDATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT/S LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATED THAT DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WERE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE EXPECTED
MINIMUMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THUS...INCREASED LOW
TEMPERATURES BY TWO DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE BRO CWFA. ALSO...
BRO ASOS ALREADY HAS 1/4SM FG...AND WITH AMBIENT TEMPERATURES
HEADING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA...
STARTED THE FOG A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AND A RELATIVELY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...INCOMING SHIFT MAY NEED TO WEIGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CUMULUS FIELD IS CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST AND SHOULD
BE COMPLETELY GONE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. EXPECT WINDS TO BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORMATION OF LIGHT FOG
FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO MODERATE LEVELS TOMORROW UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERALL...
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. PURE
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL STEADILY SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN OF WAA OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO ALSO START REBOUNDING AS
THE FLOW STARTS COMING OFF OF THE GULF OF MEX. THE RETURNING
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ALLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING WAS
STILL VERY PARCHED THIS MORNING WITH A PWAT OF 0.46 INCHES. EVEN
WITH THE RETURNING SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO ALLOW MUCH OF A POTENTIAL FOR POPS OR EVEN
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER.

THE MAV...MET AND ECMWF SHORT TERM TEMP GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT VERSUS YESTERDAYS RUNS. THE MAV IS NOT SHOWING THE COOL
BIAS THAT IT INDICATED YESTERDAY. SO WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF
THE SHORT TERM TEMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH FEW CHANGES MADE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN TO CREEP IN TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE LONG TERM.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEKEND WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...MILD TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING MOISTURE. IT WILL BE  A
LITTLE BREEZY SATURDAY WITH WINDS RELAXING FOR SUNDAY. A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
SUNDAY BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE RELEGATED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY MORNING WITH
STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES MONDAY. AS THE FRONT SAGS
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...ENOUGH CONVERGENCE COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY.

FROM THIS POINT FORWARD THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MURKY. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SHOW DECENT COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WEDNESDAY WHICH LASTS INTO THURSDAY
WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS WARMING WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF. LOOKING AT THE MID LEVELS...GFS MAINTAINS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH A DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST. ECMWF IS
TRENDING TOWARDS HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR AREA BUT MAINTAINS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IMPLYING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL EDGE
TOWARDS THE GFS DUE TO CONSISTENCY AND THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF MAY
BE TRENDING TOWARDS A INCREASING ZONAL FLOW IN LATER RUNS WITH LESS
COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE KEEPING A
LITTLE MORE WEIGHT ON THE GFS SIDE.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A GENERAL LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO
THE SE ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE PGF REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK UNTIL FRI
NIGHT WHEN THE GRADIENT MAY STRENGTHEN UP ENOUGH TO PUSH
CONDITIONS UP CLOSE TO SCEC CRIT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXERCISE CAUTION IS ALMOST CERTAIN DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND PASS BY SUNDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
RELAXING TO MODERATE LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT RIGHT NOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KBRO 280412 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1012 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISSUED AN UPDATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT/S LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATED THAT DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WERE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE EXPECTED
MINIMUMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THUS...INCREASED LOW
TEMPERATURES BY TWO DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE BRO CWFA. ALSO...
BRO ASOS ALREADY HAS 1/4SM FG...AND WITH AMBIENT TEMPERATURES
HEADING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA...
STARTED THE FOG A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AND A RELATIVELY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...INCOMING SHIFT MAY NEED TO WEIGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CUMULUS FIELD IS CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST AND SHOULD
BE COMPLETELY GONE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. EXPECT WINDS TO BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORMATION OF LIGHT FOG
FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO MODERATE LEVELS TOMORROW UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERALL...
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. PURE
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL STEADILY SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN OF WAA OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO ALSO START REBOUNDING AS
THE FLOW STARTS COMING OFF OF THE GULF OF MEX. THE RETURNING
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ALLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING WAS
STILL VERY PARCHED THIS MORNING WITH A PWAT OF 0.46 INCHES. EVEN
WITH THE RETURNING SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO ALLOW MUCH OF A POTENTIAL FOR POPS OR EVEN
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER.

THE MAV...MET AND ECMWF SHORT TERM TEMP GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT VERSUS YESTERDAYS RUNS. THE MAV IS NOT SHOWING THE COOL
BIAS THAT IT INDICATED YESTERDAY. SO WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF
THE SHORT TERM TEMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH FEW CHANGES MADE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN TO CREEP IN TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE LONG TERM.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEKEND WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...MILD TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING MOISTURE. IT WILL BE  A
LITTLE BREEZY SATURDAY WITH WINDS RELAXING FOR SUNDAY. A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
SUNDAY BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE RELEGATED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY MORNING WITH
STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES MONDAY. AS THE FRONT SAGS
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...ENOUGH CONVERGENCE COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY.

FROM THIS POINT FORWARD THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MURKY. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SHOW DECENT COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WEDNESDAY WHICH LASTS INTO THURSDAY
WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS WARMING WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF. LOOKING AT THE MID LEVELS...GFS MAINTAINS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH A DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST. ECMWF IS
TRENDING TOWARDS HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR AREA BUT MAINTAINS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IMPLYING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL EDGE
TOWARDS THE GFS DUE TO CONSISTENCY AND THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF MAY
BE TRENDING TOWARDS A INCREASING ZONAL FLOW IN LATER RUNS WITH LESS
COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE KEEPING A
LITTLE MORE WEIGHT ON THE GFS SIDE.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A GENERAL LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO
THE SE ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE PGF REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK UNTIL FRI
NIGHT WHEN THE GRADIENT MAY STRENGTHEN UP ENOUGH TO PUSH
CONDITIONS UP CLOSE TO SCEC CRIT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXERCISE CAUTION IS ALMOST CERTAIN DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND PASS BY SUNDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
RELAXING TO MODERATE LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT RIGHT NOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV






000
FXUS64 KBRO 272327 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
527 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...CUMULUS FIELD IS CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST AND SHOULD
BE COMPLETELY GONE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. EXPECT WINDS TO BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORMATION OF LIGHT FOG
FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO MODERATE LEVELS TOMORROW UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERALL...
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. PURE
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL STEADILY SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN OF WAA OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO ALSO START REBOUNDING AS
THE FLOW STARTS COMING OFF OF THE GULF OF MEX. THE RETURNING
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ALLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING WAS
STILL VERY PARCHED THIS MORNING WITH A PWAT OF 0.46 INCHES. EVEN
WITH THE RETURNING SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO ALLOW MUCH OF A POTENTIAL FOR POPS OR EVEN
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER.

THE MAV...MET AND ECMWF SHORT TERM TEMP GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT VERSUS YESTERDAYS RUNS. THE MAV IS NOT SHOWING THE COOL
BIAS THAT IT INDICATED YESTERDAY. SO WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF
THE SHORT TERM TEMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH FEW CHANGES MADE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN TO CREEP IN TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE LONG TERM.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEKEND WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...MILD TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING MOISTURE. IT WILL BE  A
LITTLE BREEZY SATURDAY WITH WINDS RELAXING FOR SUNDAY. A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
SUNDAY BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE RELEGATED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY MORNING WITH
STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES MONDAY. AS THE FRONT SAGS
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...ENOUGH CONVERGENCE COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY.

FROM THIS POINT FORWARD THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MURKY. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SHOW DECENT COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WEDNESDAY WHICH LASTS INTO THURSDAY
WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS WARMING WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF. LOOKING AT THE MID LEVELS...GFS MAINTAINS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH A DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST. ECMWF IS
TRENDING TOWARDS HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR AREA BUT MAINTAINS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IMPLYING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL EDGE
TOWARDS THE GFS DUE TO CONSISTENCY AND THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF MAY
BE TRENDING TOWARDS A INCREASING ZONAL FLOW IN LATER RUNS WITH LESS
COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE KEEPING A
LITTLE MORE WEIGHT ON THE GFS SIDE.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A GENERAL LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO
THE SE ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE PGF REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK UNTIL FRI
NIGHT WHEN THE GRADIENT MAY STRENGTHEN UP ENOUGH TO PUSH
CONDITIONS UP CLOSE TO SCEC CRIT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXERCISE CAUTION IS ALMOST CERTAIN DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND PASS BY SUNDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
RELAXING TO MODERATE LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT RIGHT NOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV






000
FXUS64 KBRO 272327 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
527 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...CUMULUS FIELD IS CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST AND SHOULD
BE COMPLETELY GONE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. EXPECT WINDS TO BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORMATION OF LIGHT FOG
FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO MODERATE LEVELS TOMORROW UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERALL...
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. PURE
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL STEADILY SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN OF WAA OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO ALSO START REBOUNDING AS
THE FLOW STARTS COMING OFF OF THE GULF OF MEX. THE RETURNING
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ALLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING WAS
STILL VERY PARCHED THIS MORNING WITH A PWAT OF 0.46 INCHES. EVEN
WITH THE RETURNING SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO ALLOW MUCH OF A POTENTIAL FOR POPS OR EVEN
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER.

THE MAV...MET AND ECMWF SHORT TERM TEMP GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT VERSUS YESTERDAYS RUNS. THE MAV IS NOT SHOWING THE COOL
BIAS THAT IT INDICATED YESTERDAY. SO WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF
THE SHORT TERM TEMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH FEW CHANGES MADE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN TO CREEP IN TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE LONG TERM.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEKEND WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...MILD TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING MOISTURE. IT WILL BE  A
LITTLE BREEZY SATURDAY WITH WINDS RELAXING FOR SUNDAY. A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
SUNDAY BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE RELEGATED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY MORNING WITH
STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES MONDAY. AS THE FRONT SAGS
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...ENOUGH CONVERGENCE COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY.

FROM THIS POINT FORWARD THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MURKY. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SHOW DECENT COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WEDNESDAY WHICH LASTS INTO THURSDAY
WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS WARMING WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF. LOOKING AT THE MID LEVELS...GFS MAINTAINS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH A DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST. ECMWF IS
TRENDING TOWARDS HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR AREA BUT MAINTAINS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IMPLYING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL EDGE
TOWARDS THE GFS DUE TO CONSISTENCY AND THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF MAY
BE TRENDING TOWARDS A INCREASING ZONAL FLOW IN LATER RUNS WITH LESS
COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE KEEPING A
LITTLE MORE WEIGHT ON THE GFS SIDE.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A GENERAL LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO
THE SE ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE PGF REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK UNTIL FRI
NIGHT WHEN THE GRADIENT MAY STRENGTHEN UP ENOUGH TO PUSH
CONDITIONS UP CLOSE TO SCEC CRIT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXERCISE CAUTION IS ALMOST CERTAIN DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND PASS BY SUNDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
RELAXING TO MODERATE LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT RIGHT NOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KBRO 272057
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
257 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL STEADILY SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN OF WAA OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO ALSO START REBOUNDING AS
THE FLOW STARTS COMING OFF OF THE GULF OF MEX. THE RETURNING
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ALLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING WAS
STILL VERY PARCHED THIS MORNING WITH A PWAT OF 0.46 INCHES. EVEN
WITH THE RETURNING SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO ALLOW MUCH OF A POTENTIAL FOR POPS OR EVEN
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER.

THE MAV...MET AND ECMWF SHORT TERM TEMP GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT VERSUS YESTERDAYS RUNS. THE MAV IS NOT SHOWING THE COOL
BIAS THAT IT INDICATED YESTERDAY. SO WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF
THE SHORT TERM TEMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH FEW CHANGES MADE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN TO CREEP IN TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE LONG TERM.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEKEND WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...MILD TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING MOISTURE. IT WILL BE  A
LITTLE BREEZY SATURDAY WITH WINDS RELAXING FOR SUNDAY. A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
SUNDAY BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE RELEGATED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY MORNING WITH
STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES MONDAY. AS THE FRONT SAGS
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...ENOUGH CONVERGENCE COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY.

FROM THIS POINT FORWARD THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MERKY. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SHOW DECENT COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WEDNESDAY WHICH LASTS INTO THURSDAY
WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS WARMING WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF. LOOKING AT THE MID LEVELS...GFS MAINTAINS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH A DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST. ECMWF IS
TRENDING TOWARDS HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR AREA BUT MAINTAINS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IMPLYING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL EDGE
TOWARDS THE GFS DUE TO CONSISTENCY AND THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF MAY
BE TRENDING TOWARDS A INCREASING ZONAL FLOW IN LATER RUNS WITH LESS
COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE KEEPING A
LITTLE MORE WEIGHT ON THE GFS SIDE.

&&

.MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A GENERAL LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO
THE SE ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE PGF REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK UNTIL FRI
NIGHT WHEN THE GRADIENT MAY STRENGTHEN UP ENOUGH TO PUSH
CONDITIONS UP CLOSE TO SCEC CRIT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXERCISE CAUTION IS ALMOST CERTAIN DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND PASS BY SUNDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
RELAXING TO MODERATE LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT RIGHT NOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  59  75  63  77 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          58  78  61  77 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            55  78  59  78 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              54  79  58  79 /   0  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      53  78  55  79 /   0  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   64  74  67  76 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 272057
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
257 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL STEADILY SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN OF WAA OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO ALSO START REBOUNDING AS
THE FLOW STARTS COMING OFF OF THE GULF OF MEX. THE RETURNING
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ALLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING WAS
STILL VERY PARCHED THIS MORNING WITH A PWAT OF 0.46 INCHES. EVEN
WITH THE RETURNING SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO ALLOW MUCH OF A POTENTIAL FOR POPS OR EVEN
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER.

THE MAV...MET AND ECMWF SHORT TERM TEMP GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT VERSUS YESTERDAYS RUNS. THE MAV IS NOT SHOWING THE COOL
BIAS THAT IT INDICATED YESTERDAY. SO WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF
THE SHORT TERM TEMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH FEW CHANGES MADE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN TO CREEP IN TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE LONG TERM.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEKEND WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...MILD TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING MOISTURE. IT WILL BE  A
LITTLE BREEZY SATURDAY WITH WINDS RELAXING FOR SUNDAY. A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
SUNDAY BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE RELEGATED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY MORNING WITH
STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES MONDAY. AS THE FRONT SAGS
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...ENOUGH CONVERGENCE COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY.

FROM THIS POINT FORWARD THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MERKY. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SHOW DECENT COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WEDNESDAY WHICH LASTS INTO THURSDAY
WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS WARMING WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF. LOOKING AT THE MID LEVELS...GFS MAINTAINS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH A DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST. ECMWF IS
TRENDING TOWARDS HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR AREA BUT MAINTAINS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IMPLYING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL EDGE
TOWARDS THE GFS DUE TO CONSISTENCY AND THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF MAY
BE TRENDING TOWARDS A INCREASING ZONAL FLOW IN LATER RUNS WITH LESS
COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE KEEPING A
LITTLE MORE WEIGHT ON THE GFS SIDE.

&&

.MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A GENERAL LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO
THE SE ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE PGF REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK UNTIL FRI
NIGHT WHEN THE GRADIENT MAY STRENGTHEN UP ENOUGH TO PUSH
CONDITIONS UP CLOSE TO SCEC CRIT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXERCISE CAUTION IS ALMOST CERTAIN DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND PASS BY SUNDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
RELAXING TO MODERATE LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT RIGHT NOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  59  75  63  77 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          58  78  61  77 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            55  78  59  78 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              54  79  58  79 /   0  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      53  78  55  79 /   0  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   64  74  67  76 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 271816 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1216 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
VERY GOOD AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RGV THROUGHOUT THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL START TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL
RETURN OF A LITTLE HIGHER DEWPOINTS THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
FORMATION OF PATCHY GROUND FOG JUST BEFORE AND AROUND SUNRISE. SO
WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO REMARK FOR SOME LIGHT FOG FOR ALL THREE RGV
AIRPORTS. ANY FOG THAT FORMS LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PRETTY SHORT
LIVED AND SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VISIBILITY AT BROWNSVILLE AND HARLINGEN HAS BEEN
PROBLEMATIC THE LAST FEW HOURS AS SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAS DEVELOPED
DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE SUN RISES. IN ADDITION...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EVIDENT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AND SHOULD BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND DRIER AIR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...FURTHER WORKING AGAINST LINGERING FOG. OTHER THAN MORNING
FOG...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAS SET UP
NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST CAMERON COUNTY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH SUN UP. MID LEVEL RIDGING UPSTREAM TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN STRONG...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND FLATTENING
SOMEWHAT IN THE SHORT TERM. A WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MEXICO WILL STAY TO THE WEST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDING SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA TODAY...
BRINGING A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS BUT WITHOUT MUCH OTHER
EFFECT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID 70S. BY TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF WILL BE SHIFTING EAST WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST BY FRI.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BUT
ACTUALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF AND PRESSURE FALLS IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SET UP LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS ON FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM A FEW
LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE PRETTY DRY WITH PWAT WELL BELOW
AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LEE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH DRY AIR
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DOWN AND REDUCING AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY PLEASANT DAY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE A FEW MPH FROM ONE DAY TO THE NEXT THROUGH THAT TIME.

00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SENDING A
FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS CHANGE IS
DRIVEN BY A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND
WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
850/925MB LAYER. THIS RESULTS IN THE FRONT WASHING OUT/STALLING NEAR
THE AREA. FIRST...MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED ABOVE ABOUT 900MB SO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP/SHOWERS APPEAR UNLIKELY. DID CONTINUE 20 PCT POPS
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY DRY SAVE THE TYPICAL SPRINKLES
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE GULF AND ALONG THE COAST. KEPT
A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WORKING IN...AT LEAST BRIEFLY.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO WORK BACK INTO PLACE BY WEDNESDAY WITH
CONDITIONS RETURNING ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 77 TO 81 WITH SOME HUMIDITY/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BUT NOTHING PARTICULARLY OPPRESSIVE. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW.
BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF HAVE SLOWED/MODIFIED THE SYNOPTIC
PICTURE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TO KEEP THE PROSPECTS OF
ANOTHER...STRONGER FRONT AT BAY FOR NOW. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST
TODAY AS PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST HOWEVER...
AND BY FRIDAY LIGHT WINDS WILL AGAIN BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE THROUGH 36 HOURS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT LEASE EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE MODERATE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
LIGHTEST WINDS FORECAST ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  59  75  63  77 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          57  76  61  77 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            55  76  59  78 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              54  77  58  79 /   0  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      53  76  55  79 /   0  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   63  74  67  76 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 271816 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1216 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
VERY GOOD AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RGV THROUGHOUT THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL START TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL
RETURN OF A LITTLE HIGHER DEWPOINTS THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
FORMATION OF PATCHY GROUND FOG JUST BEFORE AND AROUND SUNRISE. SO
WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO REMARK FOR SOME LIGHT FOG FOR ALL THREE RGV
AIRPORTS. ANY FOG THAT FORMS LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PRETTY SHORT
LIVED AND SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VISIBILITY AT BROWNSVILLE AND HARLINGEN HAS BEEN
PROBLEMATIC THE LAST FEW HOURS AS SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAS DEVELOPED
DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE SUN RISES. IN ADDITION...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EVIDENT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AND SHOULD BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND DRIER AIR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...FURTHER WORKING AGAINST LINGERING FOG. OTHER THAN MORNING
FOG...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAS SET UP
NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST CAMERON COUNTY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH SUN UP. MID LEVEL RIDGING UPSTREAM TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN STRONG...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND FLATTENING
SOMEWHAT IN THE SHORT TERM. A WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MEXICO WILL STAY TO THE WEST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDING SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA TODAY...
BRINGING A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS BUT WITHOUT MUCH OTHER
EFFECT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID 70S. BY TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF WILL BE SHIFTING EAST WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST BY FRI.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BUT
ACTUALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF AND PRESSURE FALLS IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SET UP LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS ON FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM A FEW
LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE PRETTY DRY WITH PWAT WELL BELOW
AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LEE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH DRY AIR
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DOWN AND REDUCING AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY PLEASANT DAY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE A FEW MPH FROM ONE DAY TO THE NEXT THROUGH THAT TIME.

00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SENDING A
FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS CHANGE IS
DRIVEN BY A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND
WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
850/925MB LAYER. THIS RESULTS IN THE FRONT WASHING OUT/STALLING NEAR
THE AREA. FIRST...MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED ABOVE ABOUT 900MB SO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP/SHOWERS APPEAR UNLIKELY. DID CONTINUE 20 PCT POPS
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY DRY SAVE THE TYPICAL SPRINKLES
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE GULF AND ALONG THE COAST. KEPT
A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WORKING IN...AT LEAST BRIEFLY.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO WORK BACK INTO PLACE BY WEDNESDAY WITH
CONDITIONS RETURNING ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 77 TO 81 WITH SOME HUMIDITY/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BUT NOTHING PARTICULARLY OPPRESSIVE. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW.
BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF HAVE SLOWED/MODIFIED THE SYNOPTIC
PICTURE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TO KEEP THE PROSPECTS OF
ANOTHER...STRONGER FRONT AT BAY FOR NOW. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST
TODAY AS PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST HOWEVER...
AND BY FRIDAY LIGHT WINDS WILL AGAIN BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE THROUGH 36 HOURS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT LEASE EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE MODERATE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
LIGHTEST WINDS FORECAST ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  59  75  63  77 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          57  76  61  77 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            55  76  59  78 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              54  77  58  79 /   0  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      53  76  55  79 /   0  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   63  74  67  76 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 271134
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
534 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VISIBILITY AT BROWNSVILLE AND HARLINGEN HAS BEEN
PROBLEMATIC THE LAST FEW HOURS AS SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAS DEVELOPED
DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE SUN RISES. IN ADDITION...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EVIDENT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AND SHOULD BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND DRIER AIR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...FURTHER WORKING AGAINST LINGERING FOG. OTHER THAN MORNING
FOG...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAS SET UP
NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST CAMERON COUNTY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH SUN UP. MID LEVEL RIDGING UPSTREAM TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN STRONG...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND FLATTENING
SOMEWHAT IN THE SHORT TERM. A WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MEXICO WILL STAY TO THE WEST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDING SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA TODAY...
BRINGING A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS BUT WITHOUT MUCH OTHER
EFFECT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID 70S. BY TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF WILL BE SHIFTING EAST WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST BY FRI.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BUT
ACTUALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF AND PRESSURE FALLS IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SET UP LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS ON FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM A FEW
LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE PRETTY DRY WITH PWAT WELL BELOW
AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LEE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH DRY AIR
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DOWN AND REDUCING AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY PLEASANT DAY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE A FEW MPH FROM ONE DAY TO THE NEXT THROUGH THAT TIME.

00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SENDING A
FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS CHANGE IS
DRIVEN BY A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND
WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
850/925MB LAYER. THIS RESULTS IN THE FRONT WASHING OUT/STALLING NEAR
THE AREA. FIRST...MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED ABOVE ABOUT 900MB SO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP/SHOWERS APPEAR UNLIKELY. DID CONTINUE 20 PCT POPS
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY DRY SAVE THE TYPICAL SPRINKLES
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE GULF AND ALONG THE COAST. KEPT
A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WORKING IN...AT LEAST BRIEFLY.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO WORK BACK INTO PLACE BY WEDNESDAY WITH
CONDITIONS RETURNING ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 77 TO 81 WITH SOME HUMIDITY/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BUT NOTHING PARTICULARLY OPPRESSIVE. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW.
BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF HAVE SLOWED/MODIFIED THE SYNOPTIC
PICTURE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TO KEEP THE PROSPECTS OF
ANOTHER...STRONGER FRONT AT BAY FOR NOW. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST
TODAY AS PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST HOWEVER...
AND BY FRIDAY LIGHT WINDS WILL AGAIN BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE THROUGH 36 HOURS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT LEASE EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE MODERATE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
LIGHTEST WINDS FORECAST ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68






000
FXUS64 KBRO 271134
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
534 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VISIBILITY AT BROWNSVILLE AND HARLINGEN HAS BEEN
PROBLEMATIC THE LAST FEW HOURS AS SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAS DEVELOPED
DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE SUN RISES. IN ADDITION...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EVIDENT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AND SHOULD BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND DRIER AIR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...FURTHER WORKING AGAINST LINGERING FOG. OTHER THAN MORNING
FOG...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAS SET UP
NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST CAMERON COUNTY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH SUN UP. MID LEVEL RIDGING UPSTREAM TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN STRONG...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND FLATTENING
SOMEWHAT IN THE SHORT TERM. A WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MEXICO WILL STAY TO THE WEST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDING SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA TODAY...
BRINGING A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS BUT WITHOUT MUCH OTHER
EFFECT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID 70S. BY TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF WILL BE SHIFTING EAST WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST BY FRI.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BUT
ACTUALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF AND PRESSURE FALLS IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SET UP LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS ON FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM A FEW
LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE PRETTY DRY WITH PWAT WELL BELOW
AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LEE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH DRY AIR
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DOWN AND REDUCING AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY PLEASANT DAY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE A FEW MPH FROM ONE DAY TO THE NEXT THROUGH THAT TIME.

00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SENDING A
FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS CHANGE IS
DRIVEN BY A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND
WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
850/925MB LAYER. THIS RESULTS IN THE FRONT WASHING OUT/STALLING NEAR
THE AREA. FIRST...MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED ABOVE ABOUT 900MB SO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP/SHOWERS APPEAR UNLIKELY. DID CONTINUE 20 PCT POPS
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY DRY SAVE THE TYPICAL SPRINKLES
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE GULF AND ALONG THE COAST. KEPT
A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WORKING IN...AT LEAST BRIEFLY.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO WORK BACK INTO PLACE BY WEDNESDAY WITH
CONDITIONS RETURNING ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 77 TO 81 WITH SOME HUMIDITY/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BUT NOTHING PARTICULARLY OPPRESSIVE. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW.
BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF HAVE SLOWED/MODIFIED THE SYNOPTIC
PICTURE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TO KEEP THE PROSPECTS OF
ANOTHER...STRONGER FRONT AT BAY FOR NOW. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST
TODAY AS PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST HOWEVER...
AND BY FRIDAY LIGHT WINDS WILL AGAIN BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE THROUGH 36 HOURS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT LEASE EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE MODERATE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
LIGHTEST WINDS FORECAST ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68







000
FXUS64 KBRO 270928
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
328 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAS SET UP
NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST CAMERON COUNTY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH SUN UP. MID LEVEL RIDGING UPSTREAM TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN STRONG...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND FLATTENING
SOMEWHAT IN THE SHORT TERM. A WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MEXICO WILL STAY TO THE WEST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDING SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA TODAY...
BRINGING A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS BUT WITHOUT MUCH OTHER
EFFECT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID 70S. BY TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF WILL BE SHIFTING EAST WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST BY FRI.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BUT
ACTUALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF AND PRESSURE FALLS IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SET UP LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS ON FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM A FEW
LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE PRETTY DRY WITH PWAT WELL BELOW
AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LEE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH DRY AIR
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DOWN AND REDUCING AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY PLEASANT DAY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE A FEW MPH FROM ONE DAY TO THE NEXT THROUGH THAT TIME.

00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SENDING A
FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS CHANGE IS
DRIVEN BY A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND
WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
850/925MB LAYER. THIS RESULTS IN THE FRONT WASHING OUT/STALLING NEAR
THE AREA. FIRST...MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED ABOVE ABOUT 900MB SO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP/SHOWERS APPEAR UNLIKELY. DID CONTINUE 20 PCT POPS
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY DRY SAVE THE TYPICAL SPRINKLES
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE GULF AND ALONG THE COAST. KEPT
A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WORKING IN...AT LEAST BRIEFLY.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO WORK BACK INTO PLACE BY WEDNESDAY WITH
CONDITIONS RETURNING ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 77 TO 81 WITH SOME HUMIDITY/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BUT NOTHING PARTICULARLY OPPRESSIVE. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW.
BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF HAVE SLOWED/MODIFIED THE SYNOPTIC
PICTURE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TO KEEP THE PROSPECTS OF
ANOTHER...STRONGER FRONT AT BAY FOR NOW. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST
TODAY AS PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST HOWEVER...
AND BY FRIDAY LIGHT WINDS WILL AGAIN BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE THROUGH 36 HOURS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT LEASE EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE MODERATE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
LIGHTEST WINDS FORECAST ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  59  75  63 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          74  57  76  61 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            74  55  76  59 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN              75  54  77  58 /   0   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  53  76  55 /   0   0  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   73  63  74  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68






000
FXUS64 KBRO 270928
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
328 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAS SET UP
NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST CAMERON COUNTY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH SUN UP. MID LEVEL RIDGING UPSTREAM TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN STRONG...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND FLATTENING
SOMEWHAT IN THE SHORT TERM. A WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MEXICO WILL STAY TO THE WEST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDING SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA TODAY...
BRINGING A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS BUT WITHOUT MUCH OTHER
EFFECT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID 70S. BY TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF WILL BE SHIFTING EAST WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST BY FRI.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BUT
ACTUALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF AND PRESSURE FALLS IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SET UP LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS ON FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM A FEW
LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE PRETTY DRY WITH PWAT WELL BELOW
AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LEE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH DRY AIR
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DOWN AND REDUCING AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY PLEASANT DAY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE A FEW MPH FROM ONE DAY TO THE NEXT THROUGH THAT TIME.

00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SENDING A
FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS CHANGE IS
DRIVEN BY A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND
WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
850/925MB LAYER. THIS RESULTS IN THE FRONT WASHING OUT/STALLING NEAR
THE AREA. FIRST...MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED ABOVE ABOUT 900MB SO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP/SHOWERS APPEAR UNLIKELY. DID CONTINUE 20 PCT POPS
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY DRY SAVE THE TYPICAL SPRINKLES
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE GULF AND ALONG THE COAST. KEPT
A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WORKING IN...AT LEAST BRIEFLY.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO WORK BACK INTO PLACE BY WEDNESDAY WITH
CONDITIONS RETURNING ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 77 TO 81 WITH SOME HUMIDITY/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BUT NOTHING PARTICULARLY OPPRESSIVE. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW.
BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF HAVE SLOWED/MODIFIED THE SYNOPTIC
PICTURE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TO KEEP THE PROSPECTS OF
ANOTHER...STRONGER FRONT AT BAY FOR NOW. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST
TODAY AS PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST HOWEVER...
AND BY FRIDAY LIGHT WINDS WILL AGAIN BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE THROUGH 36 HOURS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT LEASE EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE MODERATE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
LIGHTEST WINDS FORECAST ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  59  75  63 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          74  57  76  61 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            74  55  76  59 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN              75  54  77  58 /   0   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  53  76  55 /   0   0  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   73  63  74  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68







000
FXUS64 KBRO 270457 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1057 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE STILL HANGING ON...BUT CALM
WINDS SHOULD SET IN WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES UNTIL A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.
VEERING WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
CLOSER TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE NORTH BUT LIKELY DISSIPATES
JUST NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE LOCAL AERODROMES. PURE
VFR WILL ONCE AGAIN REIGN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...OPTED TO SIMPLIFY THE PREVIOUS TAFS A BIT. LIGHT WINDS
RIGHT NOW WILL BECOME CALM OR SO LIGHT THEY/LL BE VARIABLE FROM
AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING TO AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. NO
REASON TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. VEERING WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND LIKELY DISSIPATES JUST NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AERODROMES. PURE VFR WILL ONCE AGAIN REIGN THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE RIDGING
WILL PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH VERY
LOW MOISTURE VALUES PREVAILING OVER THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LOWER 48 STATES SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST THE SURFACE FLOW WILL START RETURNING FROM A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE RETURN AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMS.
ALSO THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WAA TO RETURN TO THE REGION. AS
A RESULT OF THE RETURNING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TOMORROW NIGHTS
MINS WILL BE A BIT WARMER VERSUS TONIGHT`S. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TOMORROW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TOMORROW TO WARM UP NICELY. MAV AND
ECMWF GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE VERSUS THE NAM NUMBERS AND
PREFER THIS WARMER SOLUTION.

WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE LEVELS PREVAILING WILL MAINTAIN NIL POPS
THROUGHOUT THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING. NEAR PICTURE PERFECT SHORT
TERM FORECAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE MID LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS WILL WORK TOWARDS A MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP VEER THE WINDS TO
SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE IS A S/W TROUGH
THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW /PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES BY SUNDAY/ AND THIS MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY HOLD STEADY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S FOR LOWS.

A S/W TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND DOWN INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. ITS HARD TO
THINK A SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AT
THIS TIME AND THE CORE OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYING WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA. THESE CHARACTERISTICS ARE SEEN IN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BUT THE ECMWF IS BRINGING IN A LOT OF COOLER AIR. WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE GFS FOR TEMPS TUE AND WED AND WILL SHOW A SHORT PERIOD
OF NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BUILD RIGHT BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL BE LOW TO MID 70S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE LIGHT SURFACE FLOW
ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BENIGN BAY AND GULF
CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AMID MODERATE SEAS. FOR NOW SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68







000
FXUS64 KBRO 270457 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1057 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE STILL HANGING ON...BUT CALM
WINDS SHOULD SET IN WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES UNTIL A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.
VEERING WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
CLOSER TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE NORTH BUT LIKELY DISSIPATES
JUST NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE LOCAL AERODROMES. PURE
VFR WILL ONCE AGAIN REIGN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...OPTED TO SIMPLIFY THE PREVIOUS TAFS A BIT. LIGHT WINDS
RIGHT NOW WILL BECOME CALM OR SO LIGHT THEY/LL BE VARIABLE FROM
AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING TO AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. NO
REASON TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. VEERING WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND LIKELY DISSIPATES JUST NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AERODROMES. PURE VFR WILL ONCE AGAIN REIGN THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE RIDGING
WILL PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH VERY
LOW MOISTURE VALUES PREVAILING OVER THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LOWER 48 STATES SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST THE SURFACE FLOW WILL START RETURNING FROM A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE RETURN AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMS.
ALSO THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WAA TO RETURN TO THE REGION. AS
A RESULT OF THE RETURNING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TOMORROW NIGHTS
MINS WILL BE A BIT WARMER VERSUS TONIGHT`S. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TOMORROW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TOMORROW TO WARM UP NICELY. MAV AND
ECMWF GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE VERSUS THE NAM NUMBERS AND
PREFER THIS WARMER SOLUTION.

WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE LEVELS PREVAILING WILL MAINTAIN NIL POPS
THROUGHOUT THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING. NEAR PICTURE PERFECT SHORT
TERM FORECAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE MID LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS WILL WORK TOWARDS A MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP VEER THE WINDS TO
SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE IS A S/W TROUGH
THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW /PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES BY SUNDAY/ AND THIS MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY HOLD STEADY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S FOR LOWS.

A S/W TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND DOWN INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. ITS HARD TO
THINK A SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AT
THIS TIME AND THE CORE OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYING WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA. THESE CHARACTERISTICS ARE SEEN IN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BUT THE ECMWF IS BRINGING IN A LOT OF COOLER AIR. WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE GFS FOR TEMPS TUE AND WED AND WILL SHOW A SHORT PERIOD
OF NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BUILD RIGHT BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL BE LOW TO MID 70S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE LIGHT SURFACE FLOW
ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BENIGN BAY AND GULF
CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AMID MODERATE SEAS. FOR NOW SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68






000
FXUS64 KBRO 262325 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
525 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...OPTED TO SIMPLIFY THE PREVIOUS TAFS A BIT. LIGHT WINDS
RIGHT NOW WILL BECOME CALM OR SO LIGHT THEY/LL BE VARIABLE FROM
AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING TO AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. NO
REASON TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. VEERING WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND LIKELY DISSIPATES JUST NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AERODROMES. PURE VFR WILL ONCE AGAIN REIGN THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE RIDGING
WILL PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH VERY
LOW MOISTURE VALUES PREVAILING OVER THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LOWER 48 STATES SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST THE SURFACE FLOW WILL START RETURNING FROM A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE RETURN AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMS.
ALSO THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WAA TO RETURN TO THE REGION. AS
A RESULT OF THE RETURNING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TOMORROW NIGHTS
MINS WILL BE A BIT WARMER VERSUS TONIGHTS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TOMORROW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TOMORROW TO WARM UP NICELY. MAV AND
ECMWF GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE VERSUS THE NAM NUMBERS AND
PREFER THIS WARMER SOLUTION.

WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE LEVELS PREVAILING WILL MAINTAIN NIL POPS
THROUGHOUT THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING. NEAR PICTURE PERFECT SHORT
TERM FORECAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE MID LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS WILL WORK TOWARDS A MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP VEER THE WINDS TO
SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE IS A S/W TROUGH
THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW /PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES BY SUNDAY/ AND THIS MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY HOLD STEADY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S FOR LOWS.

A S/W TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND DOWN INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. ITS HARD TO
THINK A SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AT
THIS TIME AND THE CORE OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYING WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA. THESE CHARACTERISTICS ARE SEEN IN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BUT THE ECMWF IS BRINGING IN A LOT OF COOLER AIR. WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE GFS FOR TEMPS TUE AND WED AND WILL SHOW A SHORT PERIOD
OF NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BUILD RIGHT BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL BE LOW TO MID 70S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE LIGHT SURFACE FLOW
ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BENIGN BAY AND GULF
CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AMID MODERATE SEAS. FOR NOW SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV






000
FXUS64 KBRO 262325 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
525 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...OPTED TO SIMPLIFY THE PREVIOUS TAFS A BIT. LIGHT WINDS
RIGHT NOW WILL BECOME CALM OR SO LIGHT THEY/LL BE VARIABLE FROM
AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING TO AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. NO
REASON TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. VEERING WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND LIKELY DISSIPATES JUST NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AERODROMES. PURE VFR WILL ONCE AGAIN REIGN THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE RIDGING
WILL PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH VERY
LOW MOISTURE VALUES PREVAILING OVER THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LOWER 48 STATES SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST THE SURFACE FLOW WILL START RETURNING FROM A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE RETURN AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMS.
ALSO THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WAA TO RETURN TO THE REGION. AS
A RESULT OF THE RETURNING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TOMORROW NIGHTS
MINS WILL BE A BIT WARMER VERSUS TONIGHTS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TOMORROW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TOMORROW TO WARM UP NICELY. MAV AND
ECMWF GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE VERSUS THE NAM NUMBERS AND
PREFER THIS WARMER SOLUTION.

WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE LEVELS PREVAILING WILL MAINTAIN NIL POPS
THROUGHOUT THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING. NEAR PICTURE PERFECT SHORT
TERM FORECAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE MID LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS WILL WORK TOWARDS A MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP VEER THE WINDS TO
SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE IS A S/W TROUGH
THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW /PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES BY SUNDAY/ AND THIS MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY HOLD STEADY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S FOR LOWS.

A S/W TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND DOWN INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. ITS HARD TO
THINK A SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AT
THIS TIME AND THE CORE OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYING WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA. THESE CHARACTERISTICS ARE SEEN IN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BUT THE ECMWF IS BRINGING IN A LOT OF COOLER AIR. WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE GFS FOR TEMPS TUE AND WED AND WILL SHOW A SHORT PERIOD
OF NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BUILD RIGHT BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL BE LOW TO MID 70S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE LIGHT SURFACE FLOW
ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BENIGN BAY AND GULF
CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AMID MODERATE SEAS. FOR NOW SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KBRO 262054
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
254 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE RIDGING
WILL PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH VERY
LOW MOISTURE VALUES PREVAILING OVER THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LOWER 48 STATES SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST THE SURFACE FLOW WILL START RETURNING FROM A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE RETURN AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMS.
ALSO THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WAA TO RETURN TO THE REGION. AS
A RESULT OF THE RETURNING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TOMORROW NIGHTS
MINS WILL BE A BIT WARMER VERSUS TONIGHTS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TOMORROW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TOMORROW TO WARM UP NICELY. MAV AND
ECMWF GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE VERSUS THE NAM NUMBERS AND
PREFER THIS WARMER SOLUTION.

WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE LEVELS PREVAILING WILL MAINTAIN NIL POPS
THROUGHOUT THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING. NEAR PICTURE PERFECT SHORT
TERM FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE MID LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS WILL WORK TOWARDS A MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP VEER THE WINDS TO
SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE IS A S/W TROUGH
THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW /PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES BY SUNDAY/ AND THIS MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY HOLD STEADY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S FOR LOWS.

A S/W TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND DOWN INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. ITS HARD TO
THINK A SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AT
THIS TIME AND THE CORE OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYING WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA. THESE CHARACTERISTICS ARE SEEN IN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BUT THE ECMWF IS BRINGING IN A LOT OF COOLER AIR. WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE GFS FOR TEMPS TUE AND WED AND WILL SHOW A SHORT PERIOD
OF NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BUILD RIGHT BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL BE LOW TO MID 70S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE LIGHT SURFACE FLOW
ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BENIGN BAY AND GULF
CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AMID MODERATE SEAS. FOR NOW SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  54  73  58  75 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          53  75  57  76 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            50  74  54  75 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              51  75  54  76 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      49  74  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   60  73  63  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 262054
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
254 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE RIDGING
WILL PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH VERY
LOW MOISTURE VALUES PREVAILING OVER THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LOWER 48 STATES SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST THE SURFACE FLOW WILL START RETURNING FROM A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE RETURN AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMS.
ALSO THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WAA TO RETURN TO THE REGION. AS
A RESULT OF THE RETURNING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TOMORROW NIGHTS
MINS WILL BE A BIT WARMER VERSUS TONIGHTS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TOMORROW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TOMORROW TO WARM UP NICELY. MAV AND
ECMWF GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE VERSUS THE NAM NUMBERS AND
PREFER THIS WARMER SOLUTION.

WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE LEVELS PREVAILING WILL MAINTAIN NIL POPS
THROUGHOUT THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING. NEAR PICTURE PERFECT SHORT
TERM FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE MID LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS WILL WORK TOWARDS A MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP VEER THE WINDS TO
SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE IS A S/W TROUGH
THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW /PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES BY SUNDAY/ AND THIS MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY HOLD STEADY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S FOR LOWS.

A S/W TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND DOWN INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. ITS HARD TO
THINK A SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AT
THIS TIME AND THE CORE OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYING WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA. THESE CHARACTERISTICS ARE SEEN IN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BUT THE ECMWF IS BRINGING IN A LOT OF COOLER AIR. WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE GFS FOR TEMPS TUE AND WED AND WILL SHOW A SHORT PERIOD
OF NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BUILD RIGHT BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL BE LOW TO MID 70S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE LIGHT SURFACE FLOW
ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BENIGN BAY AND GULF
CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AMID MODERATE SEAS. FOR NOW SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  54  73  58  75 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          53  75  57  76 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            50  74  54  75 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              51  75  54  76 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      49  74  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   60  73  63  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 261747 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1147 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PRETTY MUCH PERFECT AVIATION WEATHER WITH PREVAIL OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING TODAY SHOWED A VERY
LOW PWAT OF AROUND 0.26 INCHES WITH FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
PREVAIL BELOW THE 5 KFT LEVEL. A PRETTY LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE
WIND REGIME WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE RGV THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THEN EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES SLIDES FURTHER EASTWARDS. VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY...YIELDING VFR
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL AUTUMN WEATHER. MID LEVEL RIDGING
UPSTREAM WILL SUPPORT DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WHILE LGT SURFACE WINDS
WILL DELAY ANY SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF MOISTURE. THUS...SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. THAT WOULD BE
MID 70S FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE COAST.

BY THURSDAY THE MAIN RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL TRANSLATE EAST
TO OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH SLIGHT PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO EAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL STABILIZE AT LIGHT TO MDT
EAST BEFORE SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS FORECAST MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SHIFTS OUR WINDS FROM
NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY TO A MORE EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERN
DIRECTION. THIS SHIFT OCCURS ON SATURDAY MORNING AND THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION APPEARS UNLIKELY HOWEVER WITH VERY DRY AIR
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP GRADUALLY AMID THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BUT
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS IS FORECAST WITH A ZONAL LARGE SCALE
UPPER AIR PATTERN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S WILL KEEP A LITTLE HUMIDITY IN THE AIR...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO BE OPPRESSIVE BY ANY STRETCH.  MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE 00Z ECMWF SENDS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BUT IT
DOES NOT FIT PARTICULARLY WELL INTO THE MODELS SYNOPTIC PICTURE AND
HAS POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITHIN THE ECMWF. THE GFS HOLDS ANY
FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THURSDAY AND THAT SOLUTION HAS GOOD GFS
ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT. CONSIDERING THAT WENT WITH THE GFS THEMED
SOLUTION FOR THE FORECAST WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES.
/68-JGG/

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING UPSTREAM WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...LEADING
TO LOW TO MODERATE WAVE HEIGHTS AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. PLAINS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF THURSDAY WILL CREATE A
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WIND THEN.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AMID MODERATE
SEAS. FOR NOW SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  72  54  73  60 /  10  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          73  53  74  58 /  10  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            73  50  74  57 /  10  10  10   0
MCALLEN              75  50  75  55 /  10  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  48  74  53 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  60  73  64 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 261129 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
529 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY...YIELDING VFR
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL AUTUMN WEATHER. MID LEVEL RIDGING
UPSTREAM WILL SUPPORT DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WHILE LGT SURFACE WINDS
WILL DELAY ANY SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF MOISTURE. THUS...SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. THAT WOULD BE
MID 70S FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE COAST.

BY THURSDAY THE MAIN RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL TRANSLATE EAST
TO OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH SLIGHT PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO EAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL STABILIZE AT LIGHT TO MDT
EAST BEFORE SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS FORECAST MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SHIFTS OUR WINDS FROM
NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY TO A MORE EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERN
DIRECTION. THIS SHIFT OCCURS ON SATURDAY MORNING AND THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION APPEARS UNLIKELY HOWEVER WITH VERY DRY AIR
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP GRADUALLY AMID THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BUT
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS IS FORECAST WITH A ZONAL LARGE SCALE
UPPER AIR PATTERN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S WILL KEEP A LITTLE HUMIDITY IN THE AIR...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO BE OPPRESSIVE BY ANY STRETCH.  MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE 00Z ECMWF SENDS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BUT IT
DOES NOT FIT PARTICULARLY WELL INTO THE MODELS SYNOPTIC PICTURE AND
HAS POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITHIN THE ECMWF. THE GFS HOLDS ANY
FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THURSDAY AND THAT SOLUTION HAS GOOD GFS
ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT. CONSIDERING THAT WENT WITH THE GFS THEMED
SOLUTION FOR THE FORECAST WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES.
/68-JGG/

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING UPSTREAM WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...LEADING
TO LOW TO MODERATE WAVE HEIGHTS AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. PLAINS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF THURSDAY WILL CREATE A
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WIND THEN.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AMID MODERATE
SEAS. FOR NOW SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68/CAMPBELL







000
FXUS64 KBRO 261129 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
529 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY...YIELDING VFR
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL AUTUMN WEATHER. MID LEVEL RIDGING
UPSTREAM WILL SUPPORT DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WHILE LGT SURFACE WINDS
WILL DELAY ANY SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF MOISTURE. THUS...SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. THAT WOULD BE
MID 70S FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE COAST.

BY THURSDAY THE MAIN RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL TRANSLATE EAST
TO OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH SLIGHT PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO EAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL STABILIZE AT LIGHT TO MDT
EAST BEFORE SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS FORECAST MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SHIFTS OUR WINDS FROM
NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY TO A MORE EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERN
DIRECTION. THIS SHIFT OCCURS ON SATURDAY MORNING AND THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION APPEARS UNLIKELY HOWEVER WITH VERY DRY AIR
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP GRADUALLY AMID THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BUT
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS IS FORECAST WITH A ZONAL LARGE SCALE
UPPER AIR PATTERN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S WILL KEEP A LITTLE HUMIDITY IN THE AIR...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO BE OPPRESSIVE BY ANY STRETCH.  MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE 00Z ECMWF SENDS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BUT IT
DOES NOT FIT PARTICULARLY WELL INTO THE MODELS SYNOPTIC PICTURE AND
HAS POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITHIN THE ECMWF. THE GFS HOLDS ANY
FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THURSDAY AND THAT SOLUTION HAS GOOD GFS
ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT. CONSIDERING THAT WENT WITH THE GFS THEMED
SOLUTION FOR THE FORECAST WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES.
/68-JGG/

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING UPSTREAM WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...LEADING
TO LOW TO MODERATE WAVE HEIGHTS AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. PLAINS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF THURSDAY WILL CREATE A
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WIND THEN.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AMID MODERATE
SEAS. FOR NOW SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68/CAMPBELL






000
FXUS64 KBRO 260908
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
308 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL AUTUMN WEATHER. MID LEVEL RIDGING
UPSTREAM WILL SUPPORT DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WHILE LGT SURFACE WINDS
WILL DELAY ANY SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF MOISTURE. THUS...SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. THAT WOULD BE
MID 70S FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE COAST.

BY THURSDAY THE MAIN RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL TRANSLATE EAST
TO OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH SLIGHT PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO EAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL STABILIZE AT LIGHT TO MDT
EAST BEFORE SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS FORECAST MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SHIFTS OUR WINDS FROM
NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY TO A MORE EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERN
DIRECTION. THIS SHIFT OCCURS ON SATURDAY MORNING AND THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION APPEARS UNLIKELY HOWEVER WITH VERY DRY AIR
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP GRADUALLY AMID THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BUT
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST WITH A ZONAL LARGE SCALE
UPPER AIR PATTERN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S WILL KEEP A LITTLE HUMIDITY IN THE AIR...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO BE OPPRESSIVE BY ANY STRETCH.  MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE 00Z ECMWF SENDS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BUT IT
DOES NOT FIT PARTICULARLY WELL INTO THE MODELS SYNOPTIC PICTURE AND
HAS POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITHIN THE ECMWF. THE GFS HOLDS ANY
FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THURSDAY AND THAT SOLUTION HAS GOOD GFS
ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT. CONSIDERING THAT WENT WITH THE GFS THEMED
SOLUTION FOR THE FORECAST WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES.
/68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING UPSTREAM WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...LEADING
TO LOW TO MODERATE WAVE HEIGHTS AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. PLAINS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF THURSDAY WILL CREATE A
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WIND THEN.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AMID MODERATE
SEAS. FOR NOW SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  72  54  73  60 /  10  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          73  53  74  58 /  10  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            73  50  74  57 /  10  10  10   0
MCALLEN              75  50  75  55 /  10  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  48  74  53 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  60  73  64 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68






000
FXUS64 KBRO 260908
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
308 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL AUTUMN WEATHER. MID LEVEL RIDGING
UPSTREAM WILL SUPPORT DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WHILE LGT SURFACE WINDS
WILL DELAY ANY SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF MOISTURE. THUS...SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. THAT WOULD BE
MID 70S FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE COAST.

BY THURSDAY THE MAIN RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL TRANSLATE EAST
TO OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH SLIGHT PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO EAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL STABILIZE AT LIGHT TO MDT
EAST BEFORE SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS FORECAST MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SHIFTS OUR WINDS FROM
NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY TO A MORE EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERN
DIRECTION. THIS SHIFT OCCURS ON SATURDAY MORNING AND THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION APPEARS UNLIKELY HOWEVER WITH VERY DRY AIR
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP GRADUALLY AMID THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BUT
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST WITH A ZONAL LARGE SCALE
UPPER AIR PATTERN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S WILL KEEP A LITTLE HUMIDITY IN THE AIR...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO BE OPPRESSIVE BY ANY STRETCH.  MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE 00Z ECMWF SENDS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BUT IT
DOES NOT FIT PARTICULARLY WELL INTO THE MODELS SYNOPTIC PICTURE AND
HAS POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITHIN THE ECMWF. THE GFS HOLDS ANY
FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THURSDAY AND THAT SOLUTION HAS GOOD GFS
ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT. CONSIDERING THAT WENT WITH THE GFS THEMED
SOLUTION FOR THE FORECAST WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES.
/68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING UPSTREAM WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...LEADING
TO LOW TO MODERATE WAVE HEIGHTS AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. PLAINS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF THURSDAY WILL CREATE A
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WIND THEN.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AMID MODERATE
SEAS. FOR NOW SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  72  54  73  60 /  10  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          73  53  74  58 /  10  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            73  50  74  57 /  10  10  10   0
MCALLEN              75  50  75  55 /  10  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  48  74  53 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  60  73  64 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68







000
FXUS64 KBRO 260508 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1108 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF A 500 MB TROUGH AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND PURE VFR FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE AERODROMES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN CALM UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT WIND
FROM ROUGHLY THE SOUTH BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND PREVAILING AT
THAT TIME. WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...REALLY CANNOT GET MUCH BETTER AVIATION-WISE THAN WHAT
WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A
500 MB TROUGH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND PURE VFR FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE AERODROMES. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE TOMORROW...WITH A LIGHT FLOW FROM ROUGHLY THE SOUTH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND PREVAILING AT THAT TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SKIES CONTINUE TO
CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE 500MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW AN ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN WED AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A WEAK
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO/WEST TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S WED AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING
INTO THE 50S AND 40S WED NIGHT WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
BROAD UPPER RIDGE TAKES CONTROL OF THE TEXAS REGION. EARLY THURSDAY
.A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SHIFTING WINDS NORTHEAST AND EAST THURSDAY BUT THIS HIGH SHIFTS
QUICKLY TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS TO
RETURN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT FRIDAY BUT WITH THE SE FLOW EXPECT A
QUICK WARM UP WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY. WITH THE BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO
THE WESTERN GULF...SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST INCREASING MAINLY THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ENTERING THE STATE THIS WEEKEND FLATTENS THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES
EAST. THIS WILL DEEPEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH INCREASING THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SUNDAY AS IT WEAKENS
BUT MOISTURE CONTENT IS VERY SHALLOW WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH RAIN. AT THIS TIME LEFT INHERITED 20 PERCENT
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
REMAINING NEAR THE COAST. DUE TO WAA THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR THE 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND LOW TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO THE 60S.

ON MONDAY MORE PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE WILL FUNNEL SOUTH...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH THE CWA. A MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
DEVELOP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER NORTH TEXAS
NEXT WED FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY SHARPER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 5 FEET
WITH NORTH 6 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO AHEAD
AND CANCEL THE SCA FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS AND REPLACE WITH
SCEC. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN
LIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY EVENING...ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW RETURNS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. THE MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL INCREASE AND ALLOW FOR A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF WATERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST BUT NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
HAZARD EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE WILL DEEPEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING THE SE FLOW THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 6 FEET WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA POSSIBLE FROM EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68







000
FXUS64 KBRO 260508 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1108 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF A 500 MB TROUGH AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND PURE VFR FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE AERODROMES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN CALM UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT WIND
FROM ROUGHLY THE SOUTH BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND PREVAILING AT
THAT TIME. WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...REALLY CANNOT GET MUCH BETTER AVIATION-WISE THAN WHAT
WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A
500 MB TROUGH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND PURE VFR FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE AERODROMES. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE TOMORROW...WITH A LIGHT FLOW FROM ROUGHLY THE SOUTH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND PREVAILING AT THAT TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SKIES CONTINUE TO
CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE 500MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW AN ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN WED AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A WEAK
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO/WEST TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S WED AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING
INTO THE 50S AND 40S WED NIGHT WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
BROAD UPPER RIDGE TAKES CONTROL OF THE TEXAS REGION. EARLY THURSDAY
.A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SHIFTING WINDS NORTHEAST AND EAST THURSDAY BUT THIS HIGH SHIFTS
QUICKLY TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS TO
RETURN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT FRIDAY BUT WITH THE SE FLOW EXPECT A
QUICK WARM UP WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY. WITH THE BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO
THE WESTERN GULF...SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST INCREASING MAINLY THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ENTERING THE STATE THIS WEEKEND FLATTENS THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES
EAST. THIS WILL DEEPEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH INCREASING THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SUNDAY AS IT WEAKENS
BUT MOISTURE CONTENT IS VERY SHALLOW WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH RAIN. AT THIS TIME LEFT INHERITED 20 PERCENT
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
REMAINING NEAR THE COAST. DUE TO WAA THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR THE 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND LOW TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO THE 60S.

ON MONDAY MORE PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE WILL FUNNEL SOUTH...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH THE CWA. A MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
DEVELOP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER NORTH TEXAS
NEXT WED FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY SHARPER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 5 FEET
WITH NORTH 6 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO AHEAD
AND CANCEL THE SCA FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS AND REPLACE WITH
SCEC. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN
LIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY EVENING...ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW RETURNS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. THE MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL INCREASE AND ALLOW FOR A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF WATERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST BUT NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
HAZARD EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE WILL DEEPEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING THE SE FLOW THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 6 FEET WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA POSSIBLE FROM EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68






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