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000
FXUS64 KBRO 191118
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
618 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDINESS AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST HAS FAILED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY HIGH CIRRUS OVER
THE BRO AND HRL AERODROMES...AND CLOUDINESS AROUND 7K FEET OVER
MFE. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS SURFACE WINDS
BECOME BREEZY AND CLOUD DECKS RE-FORM AT LOWER BUT ACCEPTABLE
LEVELS. MORE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LOWERING DECKS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT...WITH ONLY HIGH CIRRUS WAFTING OVERHEAD FROM NEIGHBORING
MEXICO. SURFACE OBSERVATION STATIONS ARE PICKING UP PATCHY LIGHT FOG
WITHIN CAMERON AND HIDALGO COUNTY...HOWEVER.

TODAY...THE AXIS OF 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM DIRECTLY OVER THE BRO CWFA TO OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MOST RECENT KBRO UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATED JUST
AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...HOWEVER THAT AMOUNT SHOULD
CLIMB TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY SUNSET. STILL...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF
THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST. WITH
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S...SIMILAR TEMPERATURES...IF NOT JUST A
SMIDGE HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING OVER THE NEIGHBORING MEXICAN
STATES OF COAHUILA AND NUEVO LEON WILL INITIATE CONVECTION THERE...
AND SOME OF THIS MAY SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE BRO CWFA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD...BUT NEAR
NORMAL...OVERNIGHT LOWS.

SUNDAY...INHERITED ISOLATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...
AND THIS WAS RETAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WITH CONTINUED MID-
LEVEL TROUGHINESS PRESENT OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. ALTHOUGH...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LARGELY BE IN THE FORM ON STREAMER
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...NO MAJOR CHANGES
NEEDED IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING/SPEED/AND STRENGTH OF THE
NEXT 500 MB TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE ROCKIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN OVER 1.50 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AREA WIDE BY TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING GENERALLY INTACT OVERHEAD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE MID 90S ACROSS THE WEST BY LATE WEEK.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION FOG AT
THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN THAT WINDS WILL FULLY DECOUPLE AT
NIGHT.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 8 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
OVER 3.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 9 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND
EXTENDED OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRODUCING
GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE ON SUNDAY
DUE TO BREEZY WINDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS
WILL INTERACT WILL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXERCISE CAUTION AND/OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
WATERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

66







000
FXUS64 KBRO 190808
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
308 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT...WITH ONLY HIGH CIRRUS WAFTING OVERHEAD FROM NEIGHBORING
MEXICO. SURFACE OBSERVATION STATIONS ARE PICKING UP PATCHY LIGHT FOG
WITHIN CAMERON AND HIDALGO COUNTY...HOWEVER.

TODAY...THE AXIS OF 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM DIRECTLY OVER THE BRO CWFA TO OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MOST RECENT KBRO UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATED JUST
AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...HOWEVER THAT AMOUNT SHOULD
CLIMB TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY SUNSET. STILL...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF
THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST. WITH
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S...SIMILAR TEMPERATURES...IF NOT JUST A
SMIDGE HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING OVER THE NEIGHBORING MEXICAN
STATES OF COAHUILA AND NUEVO LEON WILL INITIATE CONVECTION THERE...
AND SOME OF THIS MAY SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE BRO CWFA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD...BUT NEAR
NORMAL...OVERNIGHT LOWS.

SUNDAY...INHERITED ISOLATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...
AND THIS WAS RETAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WITH CONTINUED MID-
LEVEL TROUGHINESS PRESENT OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. ALTHOUGH...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LARGELY BE IN THE FORM ON STREAMER
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...NO MAJOR CHANGES
NEEDED IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING/SPEED/AND STRENGTH OF THE
NEXT 500 MB TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE ROCKIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN OVER 1.50 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AREA WIDE BY TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING GENERALLY INTACT OVERHEAD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE MID 90S ACROSS THE WEST BY LATE WEEK.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION FOG AT
THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN THAT WINDS WILL FULLY DECOUPLE AT
NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 8 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
OVER 3.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 9 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND
EXTENDED OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRODUCING
GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE ON SUNDAY
DUE TO BREEZY WINDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS
WILL INTERACT WILL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXERCISE CAUTION AND/OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
WATERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  68  78  68 /   0   0  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  66  78  68 /   0   0  20  20
HARLINGEN            81  67  81  67 /   0   0  20  20
MCALLEN              81  69  84  68 /   0   0  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      81  69  84  67 /   0  20  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  69  76  69 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM...63
FXC/MESO...CAMPBELL







000
FXUS64 KBRO 190539 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1239 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY INDICATE THAT THE ANTICIPATED MVFR CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...WITH ONLY HIGH CIRRUS NOW WAFTING
OVERHEAD PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE PREVIOUS SET OF
TAFS TO HAVE THE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE...VFR WILL RESUME WITH BREEZY WINDS AND
RISING CEILINGS. DIMINISHING WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH
CLOUD DECKS LOWERING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND HAS
TEMPORARILY ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS TO BECOME VFR. SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT. ONSET OF THE LOWER CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AT OR AFTER
06Z WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS AN HOUR EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE SATURDAY.
PATCHY FOG HAS A LOW PROBABILITY TO FORM AT THE TERMINAL AIRPORTS
AND IF IT DOES IT SHOULD ONLY LOWER VSBY TO MVFR BETWEEN 10-13Z.
MVFR CIGS TO MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER 16Z SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RESUMING. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TO TURN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY
REMAINING LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...COASTAL TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS LEADING TO A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY. SATELLITE DEPICTS MULTILAYERED LOW AND MID
CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE REACHING THE
SURFACE. ALOFT...THE AREA RESIDES UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH A
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. DEEP SUBTROPICAL TAP
IS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST WITH PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND NORTHERN MEXICO.

COASTAL TROUGHING WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE NORTHERN TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FOG PRONE AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281. INHERITED LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE...READINGS IN THE 60S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUBTROPICAL STREAM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH A DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD OVERSPREADING THE AREA. WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...AND BROAD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF
THE CWA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE...ALBEIT SLIGHT CHANCE...THAT ONE OR TWO MAY MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE CAP WILL BE STRONG OUT WEST
OWING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MAINLY
ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...AND STARR COUNTIES. NUDGED HIGHS SATURDAY DOWN A
DEGREE HERE AND THERE BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. SATURDAY NIGHT
LOWS LOOKED GOOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL
PUSH WEST ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FROM SUNDAY ON
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY
500 MB RIDGING PUSHING OVER THE AREA FROM TUES THROUGH WED WITH A
LARGE 500 MB CLOSED LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
AREA LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED WITH RH VALUES DIMINISHING EVEN MORE
SOAS THE 500 MB RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION. THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO
THE NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO PROVIDE ANY DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATER NEXT WEEK. SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A MENTION OF SLGT
CHC POPS AS THE 500 MB TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE WAA AND THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO CONTINUE WARMING. THE ECMWF AND GFS MEX MOS TEMPS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7 WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY WARMER BIAS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A 50/50 MODEL BLEND
BETWEEN THE ECWMF AND GFS MODELS SETS FOR TEMPS.

RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
STABLE THROUGH DAY 7. MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 13 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS
SLIGHTLY UNDER 6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 13 CDT/18 UTC.
SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION INTO TONIGHT FOR
THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND DUE TO SEAS.
IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MODERATE PGF WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE LONGER RANGE CWF PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE
GULF OF MEX. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BAY AND GULF WINDS AND SEAS
DOWN BELOW SCA LEVELS. HOWEVER ON AND AFTER WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THE PGF ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE POSSIBLY PUSHING
CONDITIONS UP CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV






000
FXUS64 KBRO 182333 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
633 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND HAS
TEMPORARILY ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS TO BECOME VFR. SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT. ONSET OF THE LOWER CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AT OR AFTER
06Z WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS AN HOUR EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE SATURDAY.
PATCHY FOG HAS A LOW PROBABILITY TO FORM AT THE TERMINAL AIRPORTS
AND IF IT DOES IT SHOULD ONLY LOWER VSBY TO MVFR BETWEEN 10-13Z.
MVFR CIGS TO MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER 16Z SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RESUMING. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TO TURN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY
REMAINING LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...COASTAL TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS LEADING TO A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY. SATELLITE DEPICTS MULTILAYERED LOW AND MID
CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE REACHING THE
SURFACE. ALOFT...THE AREA RESIDES UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH A
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. DEEP SUBTROPICAL TAP
IS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST WITH PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND NORTHERN MEXICO.

COASTAL TROUGHING WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE NORTHERN TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FOG PRONE AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281. INHERITED LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE...READINGS IN THE 60S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUBTROPICAL STREAM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH A DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD OVERSPREADING THE AREA. WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...AND BROAD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF
THE CWA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE...ALBEIT SLIGHT CHANCE...THAT ONE OR TWO MAY MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE CAP WILL BE STRONG OUT WEST
OWING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MAINLY
ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...AND STARR COUNTIES. NUDGED HIGHS SATURDAY DOWN A
DEGREE HERE AND THERE BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. SATURDAY NIGHT
LOWS LOOKED GOOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL
PUSH WEST ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FROM SUNDAY ON
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY
500 MB RIDGING PUSHING OVER THE AREA FROM TUES THROUGH WED WITH A
LARGE 500 MB CLOSED LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
AREA LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED WITH RH VALUES DIMINISHING EVEN MORE
SOAS THE 500 MB RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION. THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO
THE NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO PROVIDE ANY DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATER NEXT WEEK. SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A MENTION OF SLGT
CHC POPS AS THE 500 MB TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE WAA AND THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO CONTINUE WARMING. THE ECMWF AND GFS MEX MOS TEMPS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7 WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY WARMER BIAS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A 50/50 MODEL BLEND
BETWEEN THE ECWMF AND GFS MODELS SETS FOR TEMPS.

RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
STABLE THROUGH DAY 7. MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 13 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS
SLIGHTLY UNDER 6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 13 CDT/18 UTC.
SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION INTO TONIGHT FOR
THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND DUE TO SEAS.
IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MODERATE PGF WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE LONGER RANGE CWF PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE
GULF OF MEX. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BAY AND GULF WINDS AND SEAS
DOWN BELOW SCA LEVELS. HOWEVER ON AND AFTER WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THE PGF ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE POSSIBLY PUSHING
CONDITIONS UP CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/68








000
FXUS64 KBRO 181924
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
224 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...COASTAL TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS LEADING TO A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY. SATELLITE DEPICTS MULTILAYERED LOW AND MID
CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE REACHING THE
SURFACE. ALOFT...THE AREA RESIDES UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH A
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. DEEP SUBTROPICAL TAP
IS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST WITH PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND NORTHERN MEXICO.

COASTAL TROUGHING WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE NORTHERN TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FOG PRONE AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281. INHERITED LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE...READINGS IN THE 60S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUBTROPICAL STREAM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH A DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD OVERSPREADING THE AREA. WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...AND BROAD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF
THE CWA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE...ALBEIT SLIGHT CHANCE...THAT ONE OR TWO MAY MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE CAP WILL BE STRONG OUT WEST
OWING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MAINLY
ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...AND STARR COUNTIES. NUDGED HIGHS SATURDAY DOWN A
DEGREE HERE AND THERE BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. SATURDAY NIGHT
LOWS LOOKED GOOD.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL
PUSH WEST ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FROM SUNDAY ON
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY
500 MB RIDGING PUSHING OVER THE AREA FROM TUES THROUGH WED WITH A
LARGE 500 MB CLOSED LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
AREA LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED WITH RH VALUES DIMINISHING EVEN MORE
SOAS THE 500 MB RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION. THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO
THE NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO PROVIDE ANY DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATER NEXT WEEK. SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A MENTION OF SLGT
CHC POPS AS THE 500 MB TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE WAA AND THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO CONTINUE WARMING. THE ECMWF AND GFS MEX MOS TEMPS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7 WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY WARMER BIAS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A 50/50 MODEL BLEND
BETWEEN THE ECWMF AND GFS MODELS SETS FOR TEMPS.

RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
STABLE THROUGH DAY 7. MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 13 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS
SLIGHTLY UNDER 6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 13 CDT/18 UTC.
SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION INTO TONIGHT FOR
THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND DUE TO SEAS.
IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MODERATE PGF WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE LONGER RANGE CWF PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE
GULF OF MEX. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BAY AND GULF WINDS AND SEAS
DOWN BELOW SCA LEVELS. HOWEVER ON AND AFTER WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THE PGF ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE POSSIBLY PUSHING
CONDITIONS UP CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  65  78  67  79 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          63  80  67  80 /  10  10  10  20
HARLINGEN            62  82  66  81 /  10  10  10  20
MCALLEN              64  84  67  83 /  10  10  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      64  84  67  84 /  10  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   66  76  68  76 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM..60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...58







000
FXUS64 KBRO 181720
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1220 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO BE SET UP ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH LIGHT RAIN BEING FUNNELED INTO THE
LOWER VALLEY VIA NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. CIGS ARE ON THE
SLOW RISE TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER THIS LIGHT RAIN
CAUSES REDUCTIONS BACK TO AROUND 1500 FEET OR SO. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MULTILAYERED LOW AND MIDDLE CLOUDS BLANKET THE
ENTIRE AREA AND EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR
QUITE SOME TIME. BELIEVE KBRO AND KHRL WILL GET TO VFR AND STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SREF LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWS A GOOD
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO KMFE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...KMFE
SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...NEW MODEL DATA SUGGESTS IFR/LOW MVFR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AT THE TAF SITES THEN SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS AFT 16Z THEN POSSIBLY SCATTERING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR BY 22Z. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUDINESS OVER THE BRO AND HRL AERODROMES HAS
DISSIPATED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A DECK AROUND 8K FEET. THIS
TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE MFE AERODROME DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS WAS
THE INDICATION THAT SCATTERED CLOUDINESS WOULD DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AS MID- LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO
MOVES THE CLOUDS IN FROM NEIGHBORING MEXICO. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
ARE NOTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE BRO CWFA. LOW CLOUDINESS
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET IS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION...AND BETWEEN 1K AND 2500 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF.

TODAY...INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE WILL
PRODUCE CONTINUED ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. INHERITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S APPEARED REASONABLE AND
WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE...ESPECIALLY SINCE OBSERVED
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF FORECAST
THINNING/PARTIAL CLEARING OF CLOUDINESS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS DOES
NOT OCCUR OR IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN A
GREATER ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL DISSIPATE THE INVERTED COASTAL TROUGHINESS...
THEREBY ENDING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL ALSO BE
AIDED BY AN INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. CLOUDINESS FROM NEIGHBORING MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
BACK INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE CENTERED
OVER THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO.

SATURDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 500 MB HIGH WILL
CARRY OVER THE DRY WEATHER INTO THE DAYTIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED FRIDAY HIGHS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO THE BRO CWFA.

LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TEXAS REGION WILL EXIT THE REGION AND
MOVE EASTWARD AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL SURGE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE
CWA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY BUT WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS NOT HAVING
A BIG SHIFT IN WINDS OR TEMPERATURES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MIDDLE VALLEY WHILE THE WEST
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGH TUESDAY.

IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. AS A RESULT...SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY. THESE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZE TO WINDY
THROUGH THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
REMAINS STRONG. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM
THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST WINDS
AROUND 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER
6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. SMALL CRAFT WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
EAST OF PADRE ISLAND DUE TO SEAS. IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD
SEAS UP TO 5 FEET SUNDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 2 TO 4 FEET FOR
FROM EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS DUE TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW ENTERING THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CONUS. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHEAST WINDS ALL DAY WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
BREEZE INTO THURSDAY. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUES TO HINT ON A DEEPER
LOW...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FOR WED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6
FEET WITH SCEC CONDITIONS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55







000
FXUS64 KBRO 181428
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
928 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...NEW MODEL DATA SUGGESTS IFR/LOW MVFR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AT THE TAF SITES THEN SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS AFT 16Z THEN POSSIBLY SCATTERING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR BY 22Z. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUDINESS OVER THE BRO AND HRL AERODROMES HAS
DISSIPATED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A DECK AROUND 8K FEET. THIS
TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE MFE AERODROME DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS WAS
THE INDICATION THAT SCATTERED CLOUDINESS WOULD DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AS MID- LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO
MOVES THE CLOUDS IN FROM NEIGHBORING MEXICO. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
ARE NOTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE BRO CWFA. LOW CLOUDINESS
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET IS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION...AND BETWEEN 1K AND 2500 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF.

TODAY...INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE WILL
PRODUCE CONTINUED ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. INHERITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S APPEARED REASONABLE AND
WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE...ESPECIALLY SINCE OBSERVED
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF FORECAST
THINNING/PARTIAL CLEARING OF CLOUDINESS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS DOES
NOT OCCUR OR IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN A
GREATER ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL DISSIPATE THE INVERTED COASTAL TROUGHINESS...
THEREBY ENDING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL ALSO BE
AIDED BY AN INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. CLOUDINESS FROM NEIGHBORING MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
BACK INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE CENTERED
OVER THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO.

SATURDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 500 MB HIGH WILL
CARRY OVER THE DRY WEATHER INTO THE DAYTIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED FRIDAY HIGHS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO THE BRO CWFA.

LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TEXAS REGION WILL EXIT THE REGION AND
MOVE EASTWARD AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL SURGE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE
CWA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY BUT WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS NOT HAVING
A BIG SHIFT IN WINDS OR TEMPERATURES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MIDDLE VALLEY WHILE THE WEST
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGH TUESDAY.

IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. AS A RESULT...SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY. THESE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZE TO WINDY
THROUGH THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
REMAINS STRONG. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM
THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST WINDS
AROUND 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER
6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. SMALL CRAFT WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
EAST OF PADRE ISLAND DUE TO SEAS. IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD
SEAS UP TO 5 FEET SUNDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 2 TO 4 FEET FOR
FROM EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS DUE TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW ENTERING THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CONUS. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHEAST WINDS ALL DAY WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
BREEZE INTO THURSDAY. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUES TO HINT ON A DEEPER
LOW...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FOR WED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6
FEET WITH SCEC CONDITIONS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55








000
FXUS64 KBRO 181128
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
628 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDINESS OVER THE BRO AND HRL AERODROMES HAS
DISSIPATED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A DECK AROUND 8K FEET. THIS
TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE MFE AERODROME DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS WAS
THE INDICATION THAT SCATTERED CLOUDINESS WOULD DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AS MID- LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO
MOVES THE CLOUDS IN FROM NEIGHBORING MEXICO. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
ARE NOTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE BRO CWFA. LOW CLOUDINESS
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET IS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION...AND BETWEEN 1K AND 2500 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF.

TODAY...INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE WILL
PRODUCE CONTINUED ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. INHERITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S APPEARED REASONABLE AND
WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE...ESPECIALLY SINCE OBSERVED
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF FORECAST
THINNING/PARTIAL CLEARING OF CLOUDINESS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS DOES
NOT OCCUR OR IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN A
GREATER ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL DISSIPATE THE INVERTED COASTAL TROUGHINESS...
THEREBY ENDING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL ALSO BE
AIDED BY AN INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. CLOUDINESS FROM NEIGHBORING MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
BACK INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE CENTERED
OVER THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO.

SATURDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 500 MB HIGH WILL
CARRY OVER THE DRY WEATHER INTO THE DAYTIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED FRIDAY HIGHS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO THE BRO CWFA.

LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TEXAS REGION WILL EXIT THE REGION AND
MOVE EASTWARD AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL SURGE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE
CWA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY BUT WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS NOT HAVING
A BIG SHIFT IN WINDS OR TEMPERATURES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MIDDLE VALLEY WHILE THE WEST
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGH TUESDAY.

IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. AS A RESULT...SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY. THESE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZE TO WINDY
THROUGH THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
REMAINS STRONG. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM
THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST WINDS
AROUND 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER
6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. SMALL CRAFT WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
EAST OF PADRE ISLAND DUE TO SEAS. IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD
SEAS UP TO 5 FEET SUNDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 2 TO 4 FEET FOR
FROM EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS DUE TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW ENTERING THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CONUS. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHEAST WINDS ALL DAY WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
BREEZE INTO THURSDAY. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUES TO HINT ON A DEEPER
LOW...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FOR WED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6
FEET WITH SCEC CONDITIONS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

66







000
FXUS64 KBRO 180755
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
255 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
ARE NOTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE BRO CWFA. LOW CLOUDINESS
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET IS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION...AND BETWEEN 1K AND 2500 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF.

TODAY...INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE WILL
PRODUCE CONTINUED ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. INHERITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S APPEARED REASONABLE AND
WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE...ESPECIALLY SINCE OBSERVED
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF FORECAST
THINNING/PARTIAL CLEARING OF CLOUDINESS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS DOES
NOT OCCUR OR IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN A
GREATER ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL DISSIPATE THE INVERTED COASTAL TROUGHINESS...
THEREBY ENDING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL ALSO BE
AIDED BY AN INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. CLOUDINESS FROM NEIGHBORING MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
BACK INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE CENTERED
OVER THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO.

SATURDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 500 MB HIGH WILL
CARRY OVER THE DRY WEATHER INTO THE DAYTIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED FRIDAY HIGHS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO THE BRO CWFA.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TEXAS REGION WILL EXIT THE REGION AND
MOVE EASTWARD AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL SURGE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE
CWA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY BUT WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS NOT HAVING
A BIG SHIFT IN WINDS OR TEMPERATURES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MIDDLE VALLEY WHILE THE WEST
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGH TUESDAY.

IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. AS A RESULT...SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY. THESE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZE TO WINDY
THROUGH THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
REMAINS STRONG. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM
THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST WINDS
AROUND 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER
6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. SMALL CRAFT WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
EAST OF PADRE ISLAND DUE TO SEAS. IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD
SEAS UP TO 5 FEET SUNDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 2 TO 4 FEET FOR
FROM EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS DUE TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW ENTERING THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CONUS. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHEAST WINDS ALL DAY WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
BREEZE INTO THURSDAY. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUES TO HINT ON A DEEPER
LOW...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FOR WED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6
FEET WITH SCEC CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  64  78  68 /  20   0   0  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  63  80  68 /  20   0   0  20
HARLINGEN            79  62  81  67 /  20   0   0  20
MCALLEN              82  65  83  68 /  20   0   0  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      82  65  82  68 /  20   0   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  66  76  68 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

66/67









000
FXUS64 KBRO 180539 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1239 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED WITHIN DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CORRESPONDINGLY...CEILINGS
HAVE RISEN TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FEET...WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE. VFR WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHER CEILINGS AND MODERATE
WINDS THAT WILL BECOME LIGHTER IN THE LATE EVENING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CEILINGS ARE FALLING FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND NEW DATA
FROM THE EVENING BALLOON SHOWS HIGHER LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY
THAN EXPECTED SO HAVE AMENDED THE TAFS TO BE MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN
THE ORIGINAL 00Z PACKAGE NOW FORECASTING LIFR IN A FEW HOURS AT
HRL/BRO WITH IFR IN THE MEANTIME. IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
FOR THE IFR TO FULLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION BUT A WEAK
INVERSION AT AROUND 900 FT SHOULD HELP HOLD IT IN PLACE. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING HAS ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA
HELPING KEEP AN MVFR CLOUD DECK AND PERIODIC SPRINKLES IN PLACE.
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT CIG TO DROP THROUGH THE
EVENING TO IFR...MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT A LIFR
FORECAST BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT BY SUNRISE TONIGHT. A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS FORECAST BY MID MORNING AND CLOUD
DECKS MAY RISE ABOVE 3000 FT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 7 TO 12 KNOTS.
/68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...PROVIDING A BRIEF DRYING
TREND THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH PWAT DECREASING TO AROUND AN INCH
FROM THE CURRENT INCH AND A HALF. A WEAK H5 RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE CAP WILL ERODE BUT NOT DISAPPEAR
COMPLETELY. LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT WILL BECOME UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ON FRIDAY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TONIGHT. MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN TSTMS OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS MAY NOT DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH
TSTMS INTO THE RGV...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY FARTHER NORTH
OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LOW TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 60S ONCE AGAIN. KEPT AN ONGOING MENTION OF GENERAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE PATTERN ALOFT
IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH AND SUPPORTED SOMEWHAT BY THE SUBTROPICAL
JET SUCH THAT A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING
FOR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...RETURNING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LLVL MOISTURE IN THE
REGION. THE PEAK OF THE INSTABILITY FROM THE H5 TROUGH WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY MORNING...AND WILL ATTEMPT TO TAP SOME OF THIS MOISTURE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWER IN THE VICINITY SUNDAY. THESE WILL
NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT...MORE OF A SPLASH AND DASH SHOWER. THIS
MIDLEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
STRONGER RIDGING ARRIVING. THIS WILL KEEP ANY IMPULSES WELL AWAY
FROM THE REGION. AT THE SFC...SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND WILL HELP TEMPERATURES INCREASE
SLOWLY EACH DAY INTO THE UPPER 80S. NO RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL MAYBE THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
BUT WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO EAST NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF FROM THE NORTH. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE MODERATE RANGE...BUT COULD MEET EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA AT
TIMES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WILL
TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY 10 TO 15 KNOTS CREATING SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...INCREASING WINDS TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SEAS TO 4 TO 5 FEET. THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS
TO RELAX INTO MONDAY BACK DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING
ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT SOME CAUTION MAY BEEN URGED
FOR THE DAY SUNDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV






000
FXUS64 KBRO 180025 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
725 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CELINGS ARE FALLING FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND NEW DATA
FROM THE EVENING BALLOON SHOWS HIGHER LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY
THAN EXPECTED SO HAVE AMENDED THE TAFS TO BE MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN
THE ORIGINAL 00Z PACKAGE NOW FORECASTING LIFR IN A FEW HOURS AT
HRL/BRO WITH IFR IN THE MEANTIME. IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
FOR THE IFR TO FULLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION BUT A WEAK
INVERSION AT AROUND 900 FT SHOULD HELP HOLD IT IN PLACE. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING HAS ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA
HELPING KEEP AN MVFR CLOUD DECK AND PERIODIC SPRINKLES IN PLACE.
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT CIG TO DROP THROUGH THE
EVENING TO IFR...MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT A LIFR
FORECAST BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT BY SUNRISE TONIGHT. A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS FORECAST BY MID MORNING AND CLOUD
DECKS MAY RISE ABOVE 3000 FT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 7 TO 12 KNOTS. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...PROVIDING A BRIEF DRYING
TREND THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH PWAT DECREASING TO AROUND AN INCH
FROM THE CURRENT INCH AND A HALF. A WEAK H5 RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE CAP WILL ERODE BUT NOT DISAPPEAR
COMPLETELY. LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT WILL BECOME UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ON FRIDAY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TONIGHT. MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN TSTMS OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS MAY NOT DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH
TSTMS INTO THE RGV...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY FARTHER NORTH
OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LOW TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 60S ONCE AGAIN. KEPT AN ONGOING MENTION OF GENERAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE PATTERN ALOFT
IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH AND SUPPORTED SOMEWHAT BY THE SUBTROPICAL
JET SUCH THAT A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING
FOR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...RETURNING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LLVL MOISTURE IN THE
REGION. THE PEAK OF THE INSTABILITY FROM THE H5 TROUGH WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY MORNING...AND WILL ATTEMPT TO TAP SOME OF THIS MOISTURE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWER IN THE VICINITY SUNDAY. THESE WILL
NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT...MORE OF A SPLASH AND DASH SHOWER. THIS
MIDLEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
STRONGER RIDGING ARRIVING. THIS WILL KEEP ANY IMPULSES WELL AWAY
FROM THE REGION. AT THE SFC...SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND WILL HELP TEMPERATURES INCREASE
SLOWLY EACH DAY INTO THE UPPER 80S. NO RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL MAYBE THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
BUT WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO EAST NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF FROM THE NORTH. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE MODERATE RANGE...BUT COULD MEET EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA AT
TIMES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WILL
TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY 10 TO 15 KNOTS CREATING SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...INCREASING WINDS TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SEAS TO 4 TO 5 FEET. THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS
TO RELAX INTO MONDAY BACK DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING
ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT SOME CAUTION MAY BEEN URGED
FOR THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/59







000
FXUS64 KBRO 172324 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
624 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING HAS ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA
HELPING KEEP AN MVFR CLOUD DECK AND PERIODIC SPRINKLES IN PLACE.
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT CIG TO DROP THROUGH THE
EVENING TO IFR...MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT A LIFR
FORECAST BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT BY SUNRISE TONIGHT. A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS FORECAST BY MID MORNING AND CLOUD
DECKS MAY RISE ABOVE 3000 FT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 7 TO 12 KNOTS. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...PROVIDING A BRIEF DRYING
TREND THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH PWAT DECREASING TO AROUND AN INCH
FROM THE CURRENT INCH AND A HALF. A WEAK H5 RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE CAP WILL ERODE BUT NOT DISAPPEAR
COMPLETELY. LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT WILL BECOME UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ON FRIDAY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TONIGHT. MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN TSTMS OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS MAY NOT DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH
TSTMS INTO THE RGV...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY FARTHER NORTH
OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LOW TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 60S ONCE AGAIN. KEPT AN ONGOING MENTION OF GENERAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE PATTERN ALOFT
IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH AND SUPPORTED SOMEWHAT BY THE SUBTROPICAL
JET SUCH THAT A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING
FOR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...RETURNING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LLVL MOISTURE IN THE
REGION. THE PEAK OF THE INSTABILITY FROM THE H5 TROUGH WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY MORNING...AND WILL ATTEMPT TO TAP SOME OF THIS MOISTURE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWER IN THE VICINITY SUNDAY. THESE WILL
NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT...MORE OF A SPLASH AND DASH SHOWER. THIS
MIDLEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
STRONGER RIDGING ARRIVING. THIS WILL KEEP ANY IMPULSES WELL AWAY
FROM THE REGION. AT THE SFC...SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND WILL HELP TEMPERATURES INCREASE
SLOWLY EACH DAY INTO THE UPPER 80S. NO RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL MAYBE THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
BUT WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO EAST NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF FROM THE NORTH. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE MODERATE RANGE...BUT COULD MEET EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA AT
TIMES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WILL
TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY 10 TO 15 KNOTS CREATING SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...INCREASING WINDS TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SEAS TO 4 TO 5 FEET. THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS
TO RELAX INTO MONDAY BACK DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING
ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT SOME CAUTION MAY BEEN URGED
FOR THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/59







000
FXUS64 KBRO 171843
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
143 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...PROVIDING A BRIEF DRYING
TREND THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH PWAT DECREASING TO AROUND AN INCH
FROM THE CURRENT INCH AND A HALF. A WEAK H5 RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE CAP WILL ERODE BUT NOT DISAPPEAR
COMPLETELY. LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT WILL BECOME UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ON FRIDAY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TONIGHT. MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN TSTMS OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS MAY NOT DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH
TSTMS INTO THE RGV...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY FARTHER NORTH
OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LOW TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 60S ONCE AGAIN. KEPT AN ONGOING MENTION OF GENERAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE PATTERN ALOFT
IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH AND SUPPORTED SOMEWHAT BY THE SUBTROPICAL
JET SUCH THAT A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE.


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING
FOR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...RETURNING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LLVL MOISTURE IN THE
REGION. THE PEAK OF THE INSTABILITY FROM THE H5 TROUGH WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY MORNING...AND WILL ATTEMPT TO TAP SOME OF THIS MOISTURE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWER IN THE VICINITY SUNDAY. THESE WILL
NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT...MORE OF A SPLASH AND DASH SHOWER. THIS
MIDLEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
STRONGER RIDGING ARRIVING. THIS WILL KEEP ANY IMPULSES WELL AWAY
FROM THE REGION. AT THE SFC...SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND WILL HELP TEMPERATURES INCREASE
SLOWLY EACH DAY INTO THE UPPER 80S. NO RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL MAYBE THE END OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
BUT WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO EAST NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF FROM THE NORTH. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE MODERATE RANGE...BUT COULD MEET EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA AT
TIMES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WILL
TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY 10 TO 15 KNOTS CREATING SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...INCREASING WINDS TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SEAS TO 4 TO 5 FEET. THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS
TO RELAX INTO MONDAY BACK DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING
ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT SOME CAUTION MAY BEEN URGED
FOR THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  68  76  65  80 /  20  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          67  78  65  81 /  20  20  10  20
HARLINGEN            66  80  64  83 /  20  20  20  20
MCALLEN              67  82  65  85 /  20  20  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      67  83  64  86 /  20  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   69  74  66  77 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

54/64







000
FXUS64 KBRO 171715 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1215 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE MORNING SOUNDING SUGGESTED THAT A STRONG CAP FROM
5 TO 7 KFT WAS IN PLACE...AND THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CASE BASED ON
CURRENT CEILINGS. HIGHER PWAT VALUES THE LAST 24 HOURS HAVE ALSO
ALLOWED MULTILAYERED DECKS TO FORM. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL TAKE OVER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
WITH CEILINGS DECREASING TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY BE IN THE AREA AS WELL...MORE SO AROUND
BROWNSVILLE WHERE RAIN FELL THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO EAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST
GULF TONIGHT...BACKING WINDS TO EAST AND NORTHEAST. A TIME HEIGHT
PROFILE SUGGESTS THAT CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MAV GUIDANCE GOING WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER IFR
CIGS AS WELL AS PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...WHILE THE MET IS A LITTLE
LESS RESTRICTIVE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...JET STREAK NOSING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND CYCLONIC
KINK IN H5 TROUGH AXIS ALOFT IS DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH
TO SPARK SOME LIGHTNING SOUTH OF THE RIVER. BELIEVE THE CONVECTION
IS ELEVATED BASED ON PREEXISTING CAP BUT IT MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SFC WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AT
MFE WARRANTING A NON-CONVECTIVE WIND SHEAR COMPONENT...WHILE THIS
COMPONENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BRO AND HRL. A MIX OF HIGH AND LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY. MODERATE S-SE WINDS WILL BACK TO EAST AND
DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
AND PROPAGATING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. ALTHOUGH
ALL SURFACE OBSERVATION STATIONS INDICATE CLEAR SKIES...SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVERHEAD AT ROUGHLY
22K FEET FROM THE WEST.

TODAY...A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO
THE BRO CWFA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. WITH A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PROGGED TO PASS OVERHEAD...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281/
INTERSTATE 69C CORRIDOR. INHERITED HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARED VERY
REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAINFALL...AND THESE WERE RETAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BRIEFLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE WEAK INVERTED TROUGHINESS ALONG THE
TEXAS COASTLINE...GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRETY OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MORE SEASONAL AFTER THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...ENOUGH WEAKENING INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE
TEXAS COASTLINE WILL REMAIN TO CONTINUE THE ISOLATED THREAT OF
SHOWERS FOR THE BRO CWFA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED THURSDAY HIGHS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS WITH WEAK EASTERLY FLOW
FILTERING IN MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER VALLEY. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PROGRESS TOWARDS THE EAST. MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL REMAIN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND POSSIBLY MIGRATE
INTO THE WESTERN AND MIDDLE VALLEY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN TEXAS BUT MOISTURE BEEN PULL NORTHWARD AND
INSTABILITY IN THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCE POTENTIAL
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AND INCREASE CLOSE TO THE
90S TOWARDS THE WEST SUNDAY. THE RAIN POTENTIAL DECREASES INTO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE TAKES CONTROL OF MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CONUS. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST BY
EARLY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW AND AS A RESULT STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH BLYR WINDS
SHOWING WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOS AS BETTER DYNAMICS REMAIN TOWARDS THE NORTH BUT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT THIS SE WINDS TO
INCREASE THE WAA ACROSS THE CWA HELPING TEMPERATURES TO REACH BETWEEN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW TO MID 90S WEST OF HIGHWAY
281. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAIN UNIFORMLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 70 DEGREE RANGE.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 19 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 23 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER
4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. SHOWERS OVER
THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ARE CAUSING STRONGER WINDS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...AND
THESE WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT BUILDING SEAS MAY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION OR EVEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED IN THE
IMMEDIATE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. OVERALL HOWEVER...MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY
AS RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE TEXAS REGION WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS FROM THE E WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET SATURDAY.
RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD SHIFTING MODERATE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO SUNDAY AND BUILDING UP TO 5 FT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK... ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE INCREASING THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND KEEPING A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AND KEEP
SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL BEGINS TO MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE NW PACIFIC COAST AND DEEPENS A SURFACE LOW. THIS
WILL INCREASE SE WINDS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUILDING SEAS
UP TO 6 FEET. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/64/58







000
FXUS64 KBRO 171118 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
618 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...JET STREAK NOSING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND CYCLONIC
KINK IN H5 TROUGH AXIS ALOFT IS DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH
TO SPARK SOME LIGHTNING SOUTH OF THE RIVER. BELIEVE THE CONVECTION
IS ELEVATED BASED ON PREEXISTING CAP BUT IT MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SFC WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AT
MFE WARRANTING A NON-CONVECTIVE WIND SHEAR COMPONENT...WHILE THIS
COMPONENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BRO AND HRL. A MIX OF HIGH AND LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY. MODERATE S-SE WINDS WILL BACK TO EAST AND
DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
AND PROPAGATING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. ALTHOUGH
ALL SURFACE OBSERVATION STATIONS INDICATE CLEAR SKIES...SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVERHEAD AT ROUGHLY
22K FEET FROM THE WEST.

TODAY...A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO
THE BRO CWFA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. WITH A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PROGGED TO PASS OVERHEAD...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281/
INTERSTATE 69C CORRIDOR. INHERITED HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARED VERY
REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAINFALL...AND THESE WERE RETAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BRIEFLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE WEAK INVERTED TROUGHINESS ALONG THE
TEXAS COASTLINE...GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRETY OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MORE SEASONAL AFTER THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...ENOUGH WEAKENING INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE
TEXAS COASTLINE WILL REMAIN TO CONTINUE THE ISOLATED THREAT OF
SHOWERS FOR THE BRO CWFA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED THURSDAY HIGHS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS WITH WEAK EASTERLY FLOW
FILTERING IN MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER VALLEY. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PROGRESS TOWARDS THE EAST. MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL REMAIN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND POSSIBLY MIGRATE
INTO THE WESTERN AND MIDDLE VALLEY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN TEXAS BUT MOISTURE BEEN PULL NORTHWARD AND
INSTABILITY IN THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCE POTENTIAL
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AND INCREASE CLOSE TO THE
90S TOWARDS THE WEST SUNDAY. THE RAIN POTENTIAL DECREASES INTO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE TAKES CONTROL OF MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CONUS. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST BY
EARLY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW AND AS A RESULT STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH BLYR WINDS
SHOWING WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOS AS BETTER DYNAMICS REMAIN TOWARDS THE NORTH BUT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT THIS SE WINDS TO
INCREASE THE WAA ACROSS THE CWA HELPING TEMPERATURES TO REACH BETWEEN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW TO MID 90S WEST OF HIGHWAY
281. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAIN UNIFORMLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 70 DEGREE RANGE.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 19 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 23 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER
4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. SHOWERS OVER
THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ARE CAUSING STRONGER WINDS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...AND
THESE WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT BUILDING SEAS MAY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION OR EVEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED IN THE
IMMEDIATE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. OVERALL HOWEVER...MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY
AS RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE TEXAS REGION WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS FROM THE E WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET SATURDAY.
RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD SHIFTING MODERATE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO SUNDAY AND BUILDING UP TO 5 FT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK... ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE INCREASING THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND KEEPING A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AND KEEP
SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL BEGINS TO MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE NW PACIFIC COAST AND DEEPENS A SURFACE LOW. THIS
WILL INCREASE SE WINDS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUILDING SEAS
UP TO 6 FEET. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/66/CAMPBELL







000
FXUS64 KBRO 170843
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
343 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
AND PROPAGATING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. ALTHOUGH
ALL SURFACE OBSERVATION STATIONS INDICATE CLEAR SKIES...SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVERHEAD AT ROUGHLY
22K FEET FROM THE WEST.

TODAY...A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO
THE BRO CWFA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. WITH A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PROGGED TO PASS OVERHEAD...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281/
INTERSTATE 69C CORRIDOR. INHERITED HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARED VERY
REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAINFALL...AND THESE WERE RETAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BRIEFLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE WEAK INVERTED TROUGHINESS ALONG THE
TEXAS COASTLINE...GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRETY OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MORE SEASONAL AFTER THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...ENOUGH WEAKENING INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE
TEXAS COASTLINE WILL REMAIN TO CONTINUE THE ISOLATED THREAT OF
SHOWERS FOR THE BRO CWFA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED THURSDAY HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS WITH WEAK EASTERLY FLOW
FILTERING IN MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER VALLEY. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PROGRESS TOWARDS THE EAST. MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL REMAIN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND POSSIBLY MIGRATE
INTO THE WESTERN AND MIDDLE VALLEY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN TEXAS BUT MOISTURE BEEN PULL NORTHWARD AND
INSTABILITY IN THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCE POTENTIAL
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AND INCREASE CLOSE TO THE
90S TOWARDS THE WEST SUNDAY. THE RAIN POTENTIAL DECREASES INTO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE TAKES CONTROL OF MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CONUS. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST BY
EARLY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW AND AS A RESULT STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH BLYR WINDS
SHOWING WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOS AS BETTER DYNAMICS REMAIN TOWARDS THE NORTH BUT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT THIS SE WINDS TO
INCREASE THE WAA ACROSS THE CWA HELPING TEMPERATURES TO REACH BETWEEN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW TO MID 90S WEST OF HIGHWAY
281. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAIN UNIFORMLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 70 DEGREE RANGE.


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 19 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 23 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER
4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. SHOWERS OVER
THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ARE CAUSING STRONGER WINDS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...AND
THESE WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT BUILDING SEAS MAY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION OR EVEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED IN THE
IMMEDIATE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. OVERALL HOWEVER...MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY
AS RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE TEXAS REGION WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS FROM THE E WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET SATURDAY.
RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD SHIFTING MODERATE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO SUNDAY AND BUILDING UP TO 5 FT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK... ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE INCREASING THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND KEEPING A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AND KEEP
SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL BEGINS TO MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE NW PACIFIC COAST AND DEEPENS A SURFACE LOW. THIS
WILL INCREASE SE WINDS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUILDING SEAS
UP TO 6 FEET. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  68  78  70 /  20  20  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  68  81  69 /  20  20  20  10
HARLINGEN            80  67  81  68 /  20  20  20  10
MCALLEN              82  68  84  68 /   0  20  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  68  84  68 /   0  20  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  69  77  70 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

66/67








000
FXUS64 KBRO 170540 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1240 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ARE DEVOID OF LOW CLOUDINESS...WHILE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE KBRO VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD AT AROUND 22K FEET. THE VAD WIND PROFILE ALSO
SHOWS STRONGER WINDS A COUPLE OF THOUSAND FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL...AND WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AT BRO AND HRL...HAD TO
INSERT A NON-CONVECTIVE WIND SHEAR COMPONENT AT THOSE AERODROMES.
BACKING MODERATE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. OVERALL...VFR IS LIKELY THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING AROUND 4500
FT THIS HOUR. BASED ON EVENING BALLOON DATA AND THE RATE OF
INCOMING MOISTURE EXPECT IT WILL BE HARD TO GET A PERSISTENT CLOUD
DECK BELOW 3000 FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STEADY SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT AROUND 7 TO 12 KNOTS.  LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CEILINGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 3000 FT. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 137 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL RECOVERING ACROSS THE RGV AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...THE
WIND MACHINE IS ON AGAIN THANKS TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST UNITED
STATES. BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO
RIDGING...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL SOUTH OVER THE
PLAINS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WHILE CLOUD COVER
INCREASES. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ESSENTIALLY BACK TO NORMAL
WITH MID 70S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 80S WEST UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A SOLID...THOUGH ERODING CAP.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
DEW POINTS SURGING WELL INTO THE 60S...LEADING TO CONTINUED CLOUDY
SKIES. WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTH...AND A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. POTENTIAL
CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE PLAINS TOWARD
THE CWA FROM THE WEST MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO THREATEN
RIVER COMMUNITIES IN THE MID AND UPPER VALLEY. REFLECTED ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OVER THE MID AND
UPPER VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID 60S.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED AS SMALLER IMPULSES RACE EASTWARD
ACROSS TEXAS. FRIDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE SOME GULF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR MINOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THIS WILL OCCUR AT THE SAME TIME THAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT ACROSS TEXAS...SUPPRESSION VERTICAL
MOTION. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY WILL NEED TO SPARK ALONG THE
COAST IN DEEPER GULF MOISTURE...OR WILL HAVE TO DRIFT IN FROM THE
WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. HAVE KEPT A LOW END CHANCE FOR
POPS FOR THE WESTERN VALLEY LATE FRIDAY FOR THIS
SCENARIO...OTHERWISE CHANCES REMAIN LOW. THE NEXT MIDLEVEL TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING INSTABILITY
ALOFT. SFC FLOW WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY SATURDAY
MORNING...BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY TO FIRE ON...SHOWERS WILL BE
MINIMAL...CONFINED TO THE COAST ON ANY STREAMER FORMATIONS. A
SMALL SHOWER CHANCE MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY...BUT RIDGING ALOFT
WILL BE RETURNING LATE MONDAY AND WILL DOMINATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTERACTING WITH GULF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO
THE NORTHEAST. WINDS MAY BUMP UP INTO EXERCISE CAUTION TERRITORY
OVER THE GULF TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE MODERATE ON THURSDAY
WITH A FLATTER PRESSURE PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BE
ON THE MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY AND WILL FILTER OVER NORTH TEXAS AND THE
NORTHWEST GULF THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO MODERATE EAST OR
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...REASONABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE EASTER WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN
GULF. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 KNOTS EACH
DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME SLIGHTLY BREEZIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY DUE
TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODERATE WINDS WILL KEEP
WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FEET FOR THE GULF AND PRODUCE A
MODERATE SHOP ON THE LAGUNA. NO ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV






000
FXUS64 KBRO 162325
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
625 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING AROUND 4500
FT THIS HOUR. BASED ON EVENING BALLOON DATA AND THE RATE OF
INCOMING MOISTURE EXPECT IT WILL BE HARD TO GET A PERSISTENT CLOUD
DECK BELOW 3000 FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STEADY SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT AROUND 7 TO 12 KNOTS.  LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CEILINGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 3000 FT. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 137 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL RECOVERING ACROSS THE RGV AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...THE
WIND MACHINE IS ON AGAIN THANKS TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST UNITED
STATES. BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO
RIDGING...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL SOUTH OVER THE
PLAINS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WHILE CLOUD COVER
INCREASES. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ESSENTIALLY BACK TO NORMAL
WITH MID 70S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 80S WEST UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A SOLID...THOUGH ERODING CAP.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
DEW POINTS SURGING WELL INTO THE 60S...LEADING TO CONTINUED CLOUDY
SKIES. WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTH...AND A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. POTENTIAL
CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE PLAINS TOWARD
THE CWA FROM THE WEST MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO THREATEN
RIVER COMMUNITIES IN THE MID AND UPPER VALLEY. REFLECTED ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OVER THE MID AND
UPPER VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID 60S.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED AS SMALLER IMPULSES RACE EASTWARD
ACROSS TEXAS. FRIDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE SOME GULF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR MINOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THIS WILL OCCUR AT THE SAME TIME THAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT ACROSS TEXAS...SUPPRESSION VERTICAL
MOTION. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY WILL NEED TO SPARK ALONG THE
COAST IN DEEPER GULF MOISTURE...OR WILL HAVE TO DRIFT IN FROM THE
WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. HAVE KEPT A LOW END CHANCE FOR
POPS FOR THE WESTERN VALLEY LATE FRIDAY FOR THIS
SCENARIO...OTHERWISE CHANCES REMAIN LOW. THE NEXT MIDLEVEL TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING INSTABILITY
ALOFT. SFC FLOW WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY SATURDAY
MORNING...BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY TO FIRE ON...SHOWERS WILL BE
MINIMAL...CONFINED TO THE COAST ON ANY STREAMER FORMATIONS. A
SMALL SHOWER CHANCE MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY...BUT RIDGING ALOFT
WILL BE RETURNING LATE MONDAY AND WILL DOMINATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTERACTING WITH GULF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO
THE NORTHEAST. WINDS MAY BUMP UP INTO EXERCISE CAUTION TERRITORY
OVER THE GULF TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE MODERATE ON THURSDAY
WITH A FLATTER PRESSURE PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BE
ON THE MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY AND WILL FILTER OVER NORTH TEXAS AND THE
NORTHWEST GULF THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO MODERATE EAST OR
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...REASONABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE EASTER WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN
GULF. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 KNOTS EACH
DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME SLIGHTLY BREEZIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY DUE
TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODERATE WINDS WILL KEEP
WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FEET FOR THE GULF AND PRODUCE A
MODERATE SHOP ON THE LAGUNA. NO ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/60







000
FXUS64 KBRO 161837
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
137 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL RECOVERING ACROSS THE RGV AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...THE
WIND MACHINE IS ON AGAIN THANKS TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST UNITED
STATES. BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO
RIDGING...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL SOUTH OVER THE
PLAINS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WHILE CLOUD COVER
INCREASES. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ESSENTIALLY BACK TO NORMAL
WITH MID 70S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 80S WEST UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A SOLID...THOUGH ERODING CAP.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
DEW POINTS SURGING WELL INTO THE 60S...LEADING TO CONTINUED CLOUDY
SKIES. WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTH...AND A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. POTENTIAL
CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE PLAINS TOWARD
THE CWA FROM THE WEST MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO THREATEN
RIVER COMMUNITIES IN THE MID AND UPPER VALLEY. REFLECTED ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OVER THE MID AND
UPPER VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED AS SMALLER IMPULSES RACE EASTWARD
ACROSS TEXAS. FRIDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE SOME GULF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR MINOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THIS WILL OCCUR AT THE SAME TIME THAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT ACROSS TEXAS...SUPPRESSION VERTICAL
MOTION. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY WILL NEED TO SPARK ALONG THE
COAST IN DEEPER GULF MOISTURE...OR WILL HAVE TO DRIFT IN FROM THE
WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. HAVE KEPT A LOW END CHANCE FOR
POPS FOR THE WESTERN VALLEY LATE FRIDAY FOR THIS
SCENARIO...OTHERWISE CHANCES REMAIN LOW. THE NEXT MIDLEVEL TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING INSTABILITY
ALOFT. SFC FLOW WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY SATURDAY
MORNING...BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY TO FIRE ON...SHOWERS WILL BE
MINIMAL...CONFINED TO THE COAST ON ANY STREAMER FORMATIONS. A
SMALL SHOWER CHANCE MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY...BUT RIDGING ALOFT
WILL BE RETURNING LATE MONDAY AND WILL DOMINATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTERACTING WITH GULF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO
THE NORTHEAST. WINDS MAY BUMP UP INTO EXERCISE CAUTION TERRITORY
OVER THE GULF TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE MODERATE ON THURSDAY
WITH A FLATTER PRESSURE PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BE
ON THE MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY AND WILL FILTER OVER NORTH TEXAS AND THE
NORTHWEST GULF THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO MODERATE EAST OR
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...REASONABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE EASTER WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN
GULF. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 KNOTS EACH
DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME SLIGHTLY BREEZIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY DUE
TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODERATE WINDS WILL KEEP
WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FEET FOR THE GULF AND PRODUCE A
MODERATE SHOP ON THE LAGUNA. NO ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  65  76  68  78 /  10  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          65  78  68  81 /  10  10  20  30
HARLINGEN            64  80  67  81 /  10  10  20  30
MCALLEN              63  82  68  84 /  10  10  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      62  84  68  84 /  10  10  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   67  75  69  77 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

54/64







000
FXUS64 KBRO 161748
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1248 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS HAVE
TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT WITH RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE...KICKING UP
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WINDS TO BREEZY AND GUSTY. THOSE WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LIGHT TO MDT OVERNIGHT...BUT AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN
WILL SUPPORT MVFR CEILINGS ARISING AT SOME POINT BETWEEN 9 PM AND
3 AM...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE...HOWEVER ADVERSE CEILINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER IS IN EFFECT
WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES FALLING TO EXPECTED LOWS.

TODAY...AN INTENSIFYING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE
ABOUT HALF A DOZEN DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON TUESDAY. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO A STEADILY INCREASING MOISTER ATMOSPHERE
.HOWEVER AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TOO LOW TO PRODUCE ANY
OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION.

TONIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS
OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN
DRY WEATHER ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...AS WATER TEMPERATURES
REMAIN TOO COOL FOR CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. INHERITED LOW TEMPERATURES
WERE WARMER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...SO KEPT THESE IN PLACE.

THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8
DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A 500 MB TROUGH
WILL BE PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WEAK INVERTED
TROUGHINESS AT THE SURFACE...ALONG WITH A SERIES OF 500 MB
DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH DAY TIME HEATING...WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN THUNDER ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
UNDER 4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND REMAIN EXTENDED OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST DURING THE PERIOD. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY WITH NO
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TO BE
NEEDED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY FAVORABLE
MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSIST OVER THE GULF. BRIEF PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/64







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