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000
FXUS64 KBRO 012334 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
634 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE EVENING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE OUTER RAINBANDS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVE INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TUES MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN THE VICINITY OF LOCAL AERODROMES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...NEXT 36 HOURS BEGINS
TRANSITION FROM INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK OVER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE LURKING IN THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE. PW VALUES THIS
MORNING WERE ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY AND SLOWLY BUILD IT AS THE GULF FEATURE DRIFTS WNW.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUAL FEED OF
STREAMER SHOWERS UPSTREAM FRO THE VALLEY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW...BUT
HI PW SIGNAL WILL MEAN ANY SHOWER WILL PROVIDE AMPLE RAINFALL IN A
SMALL AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE. TOMORROW THE DISTURBANCE IS IN THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE H5
RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...THE GULF FEATURE
WILL LIKELY DEFLECT WWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL MEXICO COAST. INSTABILITY
AROUND THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS FEATURE AND INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
ENTIRE PARCEL WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS WILL
BECOME A CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
BACK BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER...KEEPING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S.

PW CONTINUES TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HEATING INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING IN FRO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING HEAVIER RAINFALL.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EARLY
PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH FAVOR DEVELOPMENT BUT LONGEVITY
WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH THE MODELS MOVING WHATEVER DEVELOPS ON THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WX RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE MOISTURE
THAT FEEDS NORTH ON THE LARGER SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW DOMINATING THE
GULF.

NONETHELESS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA IN THE EARLY
LONG TERM AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CLIMB ABOVE TWO INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BALANCED WITH PERSISTENCE TO YIELD
BETTER THAN EVEN ODDS...OR 50 PERCENT...RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WERE NOTED OVER THE MARINE AREAS. IN ANY
CASE...A FEW DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE...WITH AREAL
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL LIKELY TO VARY FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO A
FEW INCHES DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY PARTICULAR SPOT ENDS UP UNDER A
HEAVILY LOADED TROPICAL TOWER.

THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH POPS WED THROUGH
THURS AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE LOW
SURGES WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AND WILL THUS TREND
DOWN CONV CHCS INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE TROPICAL FEED SHIFTS
WEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS.

SINCE THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM...OPTED TO GO WITH A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH
DAY 7. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED A BIT WED AND THURS AS
CONV CHCS MAX OUT OVER THE AREA. WILL THEN TREND THE TEMPS UP A BIT
LATER AS CONV CHCS FADE A BIT AND A LITTLE MORE DIURNAL HEATING IS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ON THE
INCREASE AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO GEL TOWARDS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HAS ALSO
BEEN PRETTY STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS KEEPING THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR WED AND THURS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND...AND CONDITIONS WILL RECOVER WITH LOWER...MORE TYPICAL
MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...BUT LIKELY A
BIT MORE CLOUDS...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW NORMAL. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S HOWEVER...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL INTO THE 90S OR EVEN NEAR THE CENTURY MARK...INCLUDING
EASTERN SECTIONS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING AGITATION FORECAST FOR THE
MARINE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF...WITH
SOME WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
START TO INCREASE LATER TOMORROW...WITH SEAS REACHING 6 TO 7 FEET
FOR THE GULF WATERS BY TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20NM TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE
TROPICAL FEATURE MOVES INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY DUE TO SWELL FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST. SOUTH
EAST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. THE ADVERSE MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND THE ASSOC SWELL GENERATING WINDS DECREASE.
THURSDAY WILL THEREFORE BE MORE OF A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
DAY. FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE WINDS AND
WAVES...WITH LOW TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PART
AND PARCEL OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  91  79  88 /  20  50  40  70
BROWNSVILLE          79  93  78  88 /  20  50  50  60
HARLINGEN            78  94  77  89 /  20  50  40  60
MCALLEN              79  96  78  90 /  10  50  30  60
RIO GRANDE CITY      80  98  78  90 /  10  40  30  60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  88  80  87 /  20  50  40  70
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/68/MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 012334 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
634 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE EVENING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE OUTER RAINBANDS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVE INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TUES MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN THE VICINITY OF LOCAL AERODROMES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...NEXT 36 HOURS BEGINS
TRANSITION FROM INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK OVER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE LURKING IN THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE. PW VALUES THIS
MORNING WERE ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY AND SLOWLY BUILD IT AS THE GULF FEATURE DRIFTS WNW.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUAL FEED OF
STREAMER SHOWERS UPSTREAM FRO THE VALLEY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW...BUT
HI PW SIGNAL WILL MEAN ANY SHOWER WILL PROVIDE AMPLE RAINFALL IN A
SMALL AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE. TOMORROW THE DISTURBANCE IS IN THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE H5
RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...THE GULF FEATURE
WILL LIKELY DEFLECT WWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL MEXICO COAST. INSTABILITY
AROUND THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS FEATURE AND INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
ENTIRE PARCEL WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS WILL
BECOME A CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
BACK BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER...KEEPING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S.

PW CONTINUES TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HEATING INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING IN FRO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING HEAVIER RAINFALL.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EARLY
PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH FAVOR DEVELOPMENT BUT LONGEVITY
WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH THE MODELS MOVING WHATEVER DEVELOPS ON THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WX RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE MOISTURE
THAT FEEDS NORTH ON THE LARGER SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW DOMINATING THE
GULF.

NONETHELESS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA IN THE EARLY
LONG TERM AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CLIMB ABOVE TWO INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BALANCED WITH PERSISTENCE TO YIELD
BETTER THAN EVEN ODDS...OR 50 PERCENT...RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WERE NOTED OVER THE MARINE AREAS. IN ANY
CASE...A FEW DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE...WITH AREAL
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL LIKELY TO VARY FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO A
FEW INCHES DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY PARTICULAR SPOT ENDS UP UNDER A
HEAVILY LOADED TROPICAL TOWER.

THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH POPS WED THROUGH
THURS AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE LOW
SURGES WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AND WILL THUS TREND
DOWN CONV CHCS INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE TROPICAL FEED SHIFTS
WEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS.

SINCE THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM...OPTED TO GO WITH A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH
DAY 7. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED A BIT WED AND THURS AS
CONV CHCS MAX OUT OVER THE AREA. WILL THEN TREND THE TEMPS UP A BIT
LATER AS CONV CHCS FADE A BIT AND A LITTLE MORE DIURNAL HEATING IS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ON THE
INCREASE AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO GEL TOWARDS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HAS ALSO
BEEN PRETTY STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS KEEPING THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR WED AND THURS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND...AND CONDITIONS WILL RECOVER WITH LOWER...MORE TYPICAL
MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...BUT LIKELY A
BIT MORE CLOUDS...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW NORMAL. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S HOWEVER...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL INTO THE 90S OR EVEN NEAR THE CENTURY MARK...INCLUDING
EASTERN SECTIONS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING AGITATION FORECAST FOR THE
MARINE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF...WITH
SOME WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
START TO INCREASE LATER TOMORROW...WITH SEAS REACHING 6 TO 7 FEET
FOR THE GULF WATERS BY TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20NM TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE
TROPICAL FEATURE MOVES INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY DUE TO SWELL FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST. SOUTH
EAST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. THE ADVERSE MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND THE ASSOC SWELL GENERATING WINDS DECREASE.
THURSDAY WILL THEREFORE BE MORE OF A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
DAY. FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE WINDS AND
WAVES...WITH LOW TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PART
AND PARCEL OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  91  79  88 /  20  50  40  70
BROWNSVILLE          79  93  78  88 /  20  50  50  60
HARLINGEN            78  94  77  89 /  20  50  40  60
MCALLEN              79  96  78  90 /  10  50  30  60
RIO GRANDE CITY      80  98  78  90 /  10  40  30  60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  88  80  87 /  20  50  40  70
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/68/MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 011937
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...NEXT 36 HOURS BEGINS
TRANSITION FROM INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK OVER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE LURKING IN THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE. PW VALUES THIS
MORNING WERE ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY AND SLOWLY BUILD IT AS THE GULF FEATURE DRIFTS WNW.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUAL FEED OF
STREAMER SHOWERS UPSTREAM FRO THE VALLEY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW...BUT
HI PW SIGNAL WILL MEAN ANY SHOWER WILL PROVIDE AMPLE RAINFALL IN A
SMALL AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE. TOMORROW THE DISTURBANCE IS IN THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE H5
RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...THE GULF FEATURE
WILL LIKELY DEFLECT WWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL MEXICO COAST. INSTABILITY
AROUND THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS FEATURE AND INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
ENTIRE PARCEL WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS WILL
BECOME A CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
BACK BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER...KEEPING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S.

PW CONTINUES TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HEATING INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING IN FRO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING HEAVIER RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EARLY
PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH FAVOR DEVELOPMENT BUT LONGEVITY
WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH THE MODELS MOVING WHATEVER DEVELOPS ON THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WX RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE MOISTURE
THAT FEEDS NORTH ON THE LARGER SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW DOMINATING THE
GULF.

NONETHELESS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA IN THE EARLY
LONG TERM AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CLIMB ABOVE TWO INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BALANCED WITH PERSISTENCE TO YIELD
BETTER THAN EVEN ODDS...OR 50 PERCENT...RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WERE NOTED OVER THE MARINE AREAS. IN ANY
CASE...A FEW DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE...WITH AREAL
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL LIKELY TO VARY FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO A
FEW INCHES DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY PARTICULAR SPOT ENDS UP UNDER A
HEAVILY LOADED TROPICAL TOWER.

THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH POPS WED THROUGH
THURS AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE LOW
SURGES WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AND WILL THUS TREND
DOWN CONV CHCS INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE TROPICAL FEED SHIFTS
WEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS.

SINCE THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM...OPTED TO GO WITH A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH
DAY 7. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED A BIT WED AND THURS AS
CONV CHCS MAX OUT OVER THE AREA. WILL THEN TREND THE TEMPS UP A BIT
LATER AS CONV CHCS FADE A BIT AND A LITTLE MORE DIURNAL HEATING IS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ON THE
INCREASE AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO GEL TOWARDS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HAS ALSO
BEEN PRETTY STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS KEEPING THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR WED AND THURS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND...AND CONDITIONS WILL RECOVER WITH LOWER...MORE TYPICAL
MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...BUT LIKELY A
BIT MORE CLOUDS...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW NORMAL. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S HOWEVER...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL INTO THE 90S OR EVEN NEAR THE CENTURY MARK...INCLUDING
EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING AGITATION FORECAST FOR THE
MARINE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF...WITH
SOME WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
START TO INCREASE LATER TOMORROW...WITH SEAS REACHING 6 TO 7 FEET
FOR THE GULF WATERS BY TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20NM TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE
TROPICAL FEATURE MOVES INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY DUE TO SWELL FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST. SOUTH
EAST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. THE ADVERSE MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND THE ASSOC SWELL GENERATING WINDS DECREASE.
THURSDAY WILL THEREFORE BE MORE OF A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
DAY. FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE WINDS AND
WAVES...WITH LOW TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PART
AND PARCEL OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  91  79  88 /  20  50  40  70
BROWNSVILLE          79  93  78  88 /  20  50  50  60
HARLINGEN            78  94  77  89 /  20  50  40  60
MCALLEN              79  96  78  90 /  10  50  30  60
RIO GRANDE CITY      80  98  78  90 /  10  40  30  60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  88  80  87 /  20  50  40  70

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/54/MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 011937
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...NEXT 36 HOURS BEGINS
TRANSITION FROM INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK OVER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE LURKING IN THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE. PW VALUES THIS
MORNING WERE ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY AND SLOWLY BUILD IT AS THE GULF FEATURE DRIFTS WNW.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUAL FEED OF
STREAMER SHOWERS UPSTREAM FRO THE VALLEY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW...BUT
HI PW SIGNAL WILL MEAN ANY SHOWER WILL PROVIDE AMPLE RAINFALL IN A
SMALL AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE. TOMORROW THE DISTURBANCE IS IN THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE H5
RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...THE GULF FEATURE
WILL LIKELY DEFLECT WWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL MEXICO COAST. INSTABILITY
AROUND THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS FEATURE AND INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
ENTIRE PARCEL WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS WILL
BECOME A CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
BACK BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER...KEEPING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S.

PW CONTINUES TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HEATING INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING IN FRO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING HEAVIER RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EARLY
PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH FAVOR DEVELOPMENT BUT LONGEVITY
WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH THE MODELS MOVING WHATEVER DEVELOPS ON THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WX RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE MOISTURE
THAT FEEDS NORTH ON THE LARGER SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW DOMINATING THE
GULF.

NONETHELESS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA IN THE EARLY
LONG TERM AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CLIMB ABOVE TWO INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BALANCED WITH PERSISTENCE TO YIELD
BETTER THAN EVEN ODDS...OR 50 PERCENT...RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WERE NOTED OVER THE MARINE AREAS. IN ANY
CASE...A FEW DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE...WITH AREAL
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL LIKELY TO VARY FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO A
FEW INCHES DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY PARTICULAR SPOT ENDS UP UNDER A
HEAVILY LOADED TROPICAL TOWER.

THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH POPS WED THROUGH
THURS AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE LOW
SURGES WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AND WILL THUS TREND
DOWN CONV CHCS INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE TROPICAL FEED SHIFTS
WEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS.

SINCE THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM...OPTED TO GO WITH A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH
DAY 7. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED A BIT WED AND THURS AS
CONV CHCS MAX OUT OVER THE AREA. WILL THEN TREND THE TEMPS UP A BIT
LATER AS CONV CHCS FADE A BIT AND A LITTLE MORE DIURNAL HEATING IS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ON THE
INCREASE AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO GEL TOWARDS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HAS ALSO
BEEN PRETTY STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS KEEPING THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR WED AND THURS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND...AND CONDITIONS WILL RECOVER WITH LOWER...MORE TYPICAL
MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...BUT LIKELY A
BIT MORE CLOUDS...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW NORMAL. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S HOWEVER...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL INTO THE 90S OR EVEN NEAR THE CENTURY MARK...INCLUDING
EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING AGITATION FORECAST FOR THE
MARINE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF...WITH
SOME WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
START TO INCREASE LATER TOMORROW...WITH SEAS REACHING 6 TO 7 FEET
FOR THE GULF WATERS BY TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20NM TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE
TROPICAL FEATURE MOVES INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY DUE TO SWELL FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST. SOUTH
EAST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. THE ADVERSE MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND THE ASSOC SWELL GENERATING WINDS DECREASE.
THURSDAY WILL THEREFORE BE MORE OF A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
DAY. FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE WINDS AND
WAVES...WITH LOW TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PART
AND PARCEL OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  91  79  88 /  20  50  40  70
BROWNSVILLE          79  93  78  88 /  20  50  50  60
HARLINGEN            78  94  77  89 /  20  50  40  60
MCALLEN              79  96  78  90 /  10  50  30  60
RIO GRANDE CITY      80  98  78  90 /  10  40  30  60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  88  80  87 /  20  50  40  70

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/54/MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 011730 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1230 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SWEEP NWWD ALONG THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH LOCALLY
VARIABLY GUSTY WINDS AND CIGS DOWN TO 2500. AFTER SUNSET CLOUDS
BECOME FEW TO NIL...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AREAWIDE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY IMPACTING AIRPORTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND PASSING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WILL MENTION A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 13Z FOR BRO/HRL AND MFE FOR
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
AREA TODAY RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA/TSRA BUT WILL NOT MENTION
FOR THIS TAF CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
LESS THAN 6 KNOTS NOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 21 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING IS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.94 INCHES WITH LIGHT DEEP EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE LATEST KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
TEXAS GULF WATERS EXTENDING DOWN ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE OF
TAMAULIPAS.

LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. ALL OF THE LATEST SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. DUE TO THE LIMITED POP COVERAGE FOR TODAY...WILL NOT
MENTION ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S AT THE BEACH TO THE UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY GIVES THIS FEATURE A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CONCERNING THE PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES AND RH VALUES
INCREASE OVER 65 PERCENT AT 1000 TO 500MB WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
CHANCE CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY COURTESY OF THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. ALSO DUE TO BETTER THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
AND HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ON
TUESDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
SUPER BLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SURF THE CONDITIONS ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA BEACH THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE MAIN CONCERN IN
THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WILL BE THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND DESTINATION
OF THE SURFACE LOW NOW EMERGING OFF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
HEADING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEX. THE BULK OF THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE WANTS TO
KEEP THIS FEATURE ON A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST TRACK WITH THE
CENTER MOVING INLAND ROUGHLY NEAR THE TAMPICO AREA TUES
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WEST NORTHWEST MOVEMENT IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS BROAD 500 MB RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. IF THIS SURFACE LOW REMAINS
FAIRLY BROADLY ORGANIZED WITH A LARGE SWATH OF DEEPER LAYER TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT THEN A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF TROPICAL
RAINS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS. IF THE SYSTEM
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF THEN THE BULK OF THE PCPN MAY BE MORE CONCENTRATED FURTHER
SOUTH WHICH WOULD MISS MUCH OF THE RGV. AT THIS TIME AM GOING WITH
THE SCENARIO WITH A MORE BROADLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW/TROUGH WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN BETTER CONV CHCS FOR THE REGION.

THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN INCREASING POPS TUES
NIGHT THROUGH THURS AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD SURFACE LOW SURGES WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE VALUES START TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY OVER THE AREA AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES AND
WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWN THE CONV CHCS INTO NEXT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS THE DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED SHIFTS WEST AND
NORTH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE AXIS.

SINCE THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FOR BOTH POPS AND
TEMPS THROUGH DAY 7. THE MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED A BIT
WED ADN THURS AS THE CONV CHCS MAX OUT OVER THE AREA. WILL THEN
TREND THE TEMPS UP A BIT LATER AS THE CONV CHCS FADE A BIT AND A
LITTLE MORE DIURNALY HEATING IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ON THE
INCREASE AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO GEL TOWARDS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HAS ALSO
BEEN PRETTY STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS KEEPING THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR WED AND THURS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND BUOY DATA INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE BAY AND GULF WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH OFFSHORE SEAS AROUND 4 FEET. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GULF. THERE IS HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AT
THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SWELLS BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
GULF WATERS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LONGER RANGE MARINE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SW
GULF SURFACE LOW. A STRONGER SURFACE LOW WOULD RESULT IN MUCH
HIGHER GULF SEAS/WINDS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SEAS REACHING UP TO
SCA LEVELS WED AND WED NIGHT WITH THE SEAS DIMINISHING DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE PGF WEAKENS AS THE TROPICAL LOW
PUSHES INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND DISSIPATES.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64






000
FXUS64 KBRO 011730 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1230 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SWEEP NWWD ALONG THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH LOCALLY
VARIABLY GUSTY WINDS AND CIGS DOWN TO 2500. AFTER SUNSET CLOUDS
BECOME FEW TO NIL...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AREAWIDE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY IMPACTING AIRPORTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND PASSING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WILL MENTION A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 13Z FOR BRO/HRL AND MFE FOR
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
AREA TODAY RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA/TSRA BUT WILL NOT MENTION
FOR THIS TAF CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
LESS THAN 6 KNOTS NOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 21 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING IS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.94 INCHES WITH LIGHT DEEP EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE LATEST KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
TEXAS GULF WATERS EXTENDING DOWN ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE OF
TAMAULIPAS.

LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. ALL OF THE LATEST SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. DUE TO THE LIMITED POP COVERAGE FOR TODAY...WILL NOT
MENTION ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S AT THE BEACH TO THE UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY GIVES THIS FEATURE A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CONCERNING THE PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES AND RH VALUES
INCREASE OVER 65 PERCENT AT 1000 TO 500MB WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
CHANCE CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY COURTESY OF THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. ALSO DUE TO BETTER THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
AND HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ON
TUESDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
SUPER BLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SURF THE CONDITIONS ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA BEACH THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE MAIN CONCERN IN
THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WILL BE THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND DESTINATION
OF THE SURFACE LOW NOW EMERGING OFF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
HEADING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEX. THE BULK OF THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE WANTS TO
KEEP THIS FEATURE ON A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST TRACK WITH THE
CENTER MOVING INLAND ROUGHLY NEAR THE TAMPICO AREA TUES
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WEST NORTHWEST MOVEMENT IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS BROAD 500 MB RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. IF THIS SURFACE LOW REMAINS
FAIRLY BROADLY ORGANIZED WITH A LARGE SWATH OF DEEPER LAYER TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT THEN A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF TROPICAL
RAINS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS. IF THE SYSTEM
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF THEN THE BULK OF THE PCPN MAY BE MORE CONCENTRATED FURTHER
SOUTH WHICH WOULD MISS MUCH OF THE RGV. AT THIS TIME AM GOING WITH
THE SCENARIO WITH A MORE BROADLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW/TROUGH WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN BETTER CONV CHCS FOR THE REGION.

THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN INCREASING POPS TUES
NIGHT THROUGH THURS AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD SURFACE LOW SURGES WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE VALUES START TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY OVER THE AREA AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES AND
WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWN THE CONV CHCS INTO NEXT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS THE DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED SHIFTS WEST AND
NORTH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE AXIS.

SINCE THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FOR BOTH POPS AND
TEMPS THROUGH DAY 7. THE MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED A BIT
WED ADN THURS AS THE CONV CHCS MAX OUT OVER THE AREA. WILL THEN
TREND THE TEMPS UP A BIT LATER AS THE CONV CHCS FADE A BIT AND A
LITTLE MORE DIURNALY HEATING IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ON THE
INCREASE AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO GEL TOWARDS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HAS ALSO
BEEN PRETTY STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS KEEPING THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR WED AND THURS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND BUOY DATA INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE BAY AND GULF WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH OFFSHORE SEAS AROUND 4 FEET. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GULF. THERE IS HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AT
THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SWELLS BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
GULF WATERS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LONGER RANGE MARINE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SW
GULF SURFACE LOW. A STRONGER SURFACE LOW WOULD RESULT IN MUCH
HIGHER GULF SEAS/WINDS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SEAS REACHING UP TO
SCA LEVELS WED AND WED NIGHT WITH THE SEAS DIMINISHING DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE PGF WEAKENS AS THE TROPICAL LOW
PUSHES INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND DISSIPATES.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64







000
FXUS64 KBRO 011141 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
641 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND PASSING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WILL MENTION A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 13Z FOR BRO/HRL AND MFE FOR
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
AREA TODAY RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA/TSRA BUT WILL NOT MENTION
FOR THIS TAF CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
LESS THAN 6 KNOTS NOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 21 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING IS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.94 INCHES WITH LIGHT DEEP EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE LATEST KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
TEXAS GULF WATERS EXTENDING DOWN ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE OF
TAMAULIPAS.

LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. ALL OF THE LATEST SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. DUE TO THE LIMITED POP COVERAGE FOR TODAY...WILL NOT
MENTION ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S AT THE BEACH TO THE UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY GIVES THIS FEATURE A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CONCERNING THE PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES AND RH VALUES
INCREASE OVER 65 PERCENT AT 1000 TO 500MB WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
CHANCE CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY COURTESY OF THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. ALSO DUE TO BETTER THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
AND HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ON
TUESDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
SUPER BLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SURF THE CONDITIONS ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA BEACH THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE MAIN CONCERN IN
THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WILL BE THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND DESTINATION
OF THE SURFACE LOW NOW EMERGING OFF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
HEADING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEX. THE BULK OF THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE WANTS TO
KEEP THIS FEATURE ON A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST TRACK WITH THE
CENTER MOVING INLAND ROUGHLY NEAR THE TAMPICO AREA TUES
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WEST NORTHWEST MOVEMENT IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS BROAD 500 MB RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. IF THIS SURFACE LOW REMAINS
FAIRLY BROADLY ORGANIZED WITH A LARGE SWATH OF DEEPER LAYER TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT THEN A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF TROPICAL
RAINS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS. IF THE SYSTEM
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF THEN THE BULK OF THE PCPN MAY BE MORE CONCENTRATED FURTHER
SOUTH WHICH WOULD MISS MUCH OF THE RGV. AT THIS TIME AM GOING WITH
THE SCENARIO WITH A MORE BROADLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW/TROUGH WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN BETTER CONV CHCS FOR THE REGION.

THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN INCREASING POPS TUES
NIGHT THROUGH THURS AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD SURFACE LOW SURGES WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE VALUES START TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY OVER THE AREA AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES AND
WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWN THE CONV CHCS INTO NEXT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS THE DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED SHIFTS WEST AND
NORTH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE AXIS.

SINCE THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FOR BOTH POPS AND
TEMPS THROUGH DAY 7. THE MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED A BIT
WED ADN THURS AS THE CONV CHCS MAX OUT OVER THE AREA. WILL THEN
TREND THE TEMPS UP A BIT LATER AS THE CONV CHCS FADE A BIT AND A
LITTLE MORE DIURNALY HEATING IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ON THE
INCREASE AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO GEL TOWARDS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HAS ALSO
BEEN PRETTY STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS KEEPING THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR WED AND THURS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND BUOY DATA INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE BAY AND GULF WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH OFFSHORE SEAS AROUND 4 FEET. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GULF. THERE IS HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AT
THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SWELLS BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
GULF WATERS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LONGER RANGE MARINE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SW
GULF SURFACE LOW. A STRONGER SURFACE LOW WOULD RESULT IN MUCH
HIGHER GULF SEAS/WINDS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SEAS REACHING UP TO
SCA LEVELS WED AND WED NIGHT WITH THE SEAS DIMINISHING DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE PGF WEAKENS AS THE TROPICAL LOW
PUSHES INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND DISSIPATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  92  81  91  79 /  20  20  50  40
BROWNSVILLE          94  79  93  78 /  20  20  50  50
HARLINGEN            96  78  94  77 /  20  20  50  40
MCALLEN              98  79  96  78 /  20  10  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  80  98  78 /  10  10  40  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   89  81  88  80 /  20  20  50  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65







000
FXUS64 KBRO 011141 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
641 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND PASSING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WILL MENTION A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 13Z FOR BRO/HRL AND MFE FOR
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
AREA TODAY RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA/TSRA BUT WILL NOT MENTION
FOR THIS TAF CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
LESS THAN 6 KNOTS NOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 21 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING IS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.94 INCHES WITH LIGHT DEEP EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE LATEST KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
TEXAS GULF WATERS EXTENDING DOWN ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE OF
TAMAULIPAS.

LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. ALL OF THE LATEST SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. DUE TO THE LIMITED POP COVERAGE FOR TODAY...WILL NOT
MENTION ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S AT THE BEACH TO THE UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY GIVES THIS FEATURE A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CONCERNING THE PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES AND RH VALUES
INCREASE OVER 65 PERCENT AT 1000 TO 500MB WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
CHANCE CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY COURTESY OF THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. ALSO DUE TO BETTER THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
AND HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ON
TUESDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
SUPER BLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SURF THE CONDITIONS ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA BEACH THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE MAIN CONCERN IN
THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WILL BE THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND DESTINATION
OF THE SURFACE LOW NOW EMERGING OFF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
HEADING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEX. THE BULK OF THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE WANTS TO
KEEP THIS FEATURE ON A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST TRACK WITH THE
CENTER MOVING INLAND ROUGHLY NEAR THE TAMPICO AREA TUES
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WEST NORTHWEST MOVEMENT IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS BROAD 500 MB RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. IF THIS SURFACE LOW REMAINS
FAIRLY BROADLY ORGANIZED WITH A LARGE SWATH OF DEEPER LAYER TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT THEN A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF TROPICAL
RAINS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS. IF THE SYSTEM
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF THEN THE BULK OF THE PCPN MAY BE MORE CONCENTRATED FURTHER
SOUTH WHICH WOULD MISS MUCH OF THE RGV. AT THIS TIME AM GOING WITH
THE SCENARIO WITH A MORE BROADLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW/TROUGH WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN BETTER CONV CHCS FOR THE REGION.

THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN INCREASING POPS TUES
NIGHT THROUGH THURS AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD SURFACE LOW SURGES WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE VALUES START TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY OVER THE AREA AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES AND
WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWN THE CONV CHCS INTO NEXT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS THE DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED SHIFTS WEST AND
NORTH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE AXIS.

SINCE THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FOR BOTH POPS AND
TEMPS THROUGH DAY 7. THE MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED A BIT
WED ADN THURS AS THE CONV CHCS MAX OUT OVER THE AREA. WILL THEN
TREND THE TEMPS UP A BIT LATER AS THE CONV CHCS FADE A BIT AND A
LITTLE MORE DIURNALY HEATING IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ON THE
INCREASE AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO GEL TOWARDS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HAS ALSO
BEEN PRETTY STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS KEEPING THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR WED AND THURS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND BUOY DATA INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE BAY AND GULF WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH OFFSHORE SEAS AROUND 4 FEET. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GULF. THERE IS HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AT
THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SWELLS BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
GULF WATERS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LONGER RANGE MARINE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SW
GULF SURFACE LOW. A STRONGER SURFACE LOW WOULD RESULT IN MUCH
HIGHER GULF SEAS/WINDS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SEAS REACHING UP TO
SCA LEVELS WED AND WED NIGHT WITH THE SEAS DIMINISHING DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE PGF WEAKENS AS THE TROPICAL LOW
PUSHES INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND DISSIPATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  92  81  91  79 /  20  20  50  40
BROWNSVILLE          94  79  93  78 /  20  20  50  50
HARLINGEN            96  78  94  77 /  20  20  50  40
MCALLEN              98  79  96  78 /  20  10  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  80  98  78 /  10  10  40  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   89  81  88  80 /  20  20  50  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65






000
FXUS64 KBRO 010936
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
436 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING IS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.94 INCHES WITH LIGHT DEEP EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE LATEST KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
TEXAS GULF WATERS EXTENDING DOWN ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE OF
TAMAULIPAS.

LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. ALL OF THE LATEST SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. DUE TO THE LIMITED POP COVERAGE FOR TODAY...WILL NOT
MENTION ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S AT THE BEACH TO THE UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY GIVES THIS FEATURE A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CONCERNING THE PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES AND RH VALUES
INCREASE OVER 65 PERCENT AT 1000 TO 500MB WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
CHANCE CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY COURTESY OF THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. ALSO DUE TO BETTER THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
AND HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ON
TUESDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
SUPER BLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SURF THE CONDITIONS ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA BEACH THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE MAIN CONCERN IN
THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WILL BE THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND DESTINATION
OF THE SURFACE LOW NOW EMERGING OFF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
HEADING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEX. THE BULK OF THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE WANTS TO
KEEP THIS FEATURE ON A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST TRACK WITH THE
CENTER MOVING INLAND ROUGHLY NEAR THE TAMPICO AREA TUES
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WEST NORTHWEST MOVEMENT IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS BROAD 500 MB RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. IF THIS SURFACE LOW REMAINS
FAIRLY BROADLY ORGANIZED WITH A LARGE SWATH OF DEEPER LAYER TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT THEN A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF TROPICAL
RAINS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS. IF THE SYSTEM
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF THEN THE BULK OF THE PCPN MAY BE MORE CONCENTRATED FURTHER
SOUTH WHICH WOULD MISS MUCH OF THE RGV. AT THIS TIME AM GOING WITH
THE SCENARIO WITH A MORE BROADLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW/TROUGH WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN BETTER CONV CHCS FOR THE REGION.

THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN INCREASING POPS TUES
NIGHT THROUGH THURS AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD SURFACE LOW SURGES WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE VALUES START TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY OVER THE AREA AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES AND
WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWN THE CONV CHCS INTO NEXT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS THE DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED SHIFTS WEST AND
NORTH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE AXIS.

SINCE THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FOR BOTH POPS AND
TEMPS THROUGH DAY 7. THE MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED A BIT
WED ADN THURS AS THE CONV CHCS MAX OUT OVER THE AREA. WILL THEN
TREND THE TEMPS UP A BIT LATER AS THE CONV CHCS FADE A BIT AND A
LITTLE MORE DIURNALY HEATING IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ON THE
INCREASE AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO GEL TOWARDS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HAS ALSO
BEEN PRETTY STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS KEEPING THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR WED AND THURS.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND BUOY DATA INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE BAY AND GULF WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH OFFSHORE SEAS AROUND 4 FEET. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GULF. THERE IS HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AT
THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SWELLS BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
GULF WATERS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LONGER RANGE MARINE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SW
GULF SURFACE LOW. A STRONGER SURFACE LOW WOULD RESULT IN MUCH
HIGHER GULF SEAS/WINDS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SEAS REACHING UP TO
SCA LEVELS WED AND WED NIGHT WITH THE SEAS DIMINISHING DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE PGF WEAKENS AS THE TROPICAL LOW
PUSHES INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND DISSIPATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  92  81  91  79 /  20  20  50  40
BROWNSVILLE          94  79  93  78 /  20  20  50  50
HARLINGEN            96  78  94  77 /  20  20  50  40
MCALLEN              98  79  96  78 /  20  10  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  80  98  78 /  10  10  40  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   89  81  88  80 /  20  20  50  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65






000
FXUS64 KBRO 010936
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
436 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING IS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.94 INCHES WITH LIGHT DEEP EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE LATEST KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
TEXAS GULF WATERS EXTENDING DOWN ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE OF
TAMAULIPAS.

LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. ALL OF THE LATEST SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. DUE TO THE LIMITED POP COVERAGE FOR TODAY...WILL NOT
MENTION ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S AT THE BEACH TO THE UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY GIVES THIS FEATURE A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CONCERNING THE PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES AND RH VALUES
INCREASE OVER 65 PERCENT AT 1000 TO 500MB WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
CHANCE CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY COURTESY OF THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. ALSO DUE TO BETTER THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
AND HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ON
TUESDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
SUPER BLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SURF THE CONDITIONS ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA BEACH THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE MAIN CONCERN IN
THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WILL BE THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND DESTINATION
OF THE SURFACE LOW NOW EMERGING OFF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
HEADING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEX. THE BULK OF THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE WANTS TO
KEEP THIS FEATURE ON A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST TRACK WITH THE
CENTER MOVING INLAND ROUGHLY NEAR THE TAMPICO AREA TUES
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WEST NORTHWEST MOVEMENT IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS BROAD 500 MB RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. IF THIS SURFACE LOW REMAINS
FAIRLY BROADLY ORGANIZED WITH A LARGE SWATH OF DEEPER LAYER TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT THEN A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF TROPICAL
RAINS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS. IF THE SYSTEM
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF THEN THE BULK OF THE PCPN MAY BE MORE CONCENTRATED FURTHER
SOUTH WHICH WOULD MISS MUCH OF THE RGV. AT THIS TIME AM GOING WITH
THE SCENARIO WITH A MORE BROADLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW/TROUGH WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN BETTER CONV CHCS FOR THE REGION.

THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN INCREASING POPS TUES
NIGHT THROUGH THURS AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD SURFACE LOW SURGES WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE VALUES START TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY OVER THE AREA AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES AND
WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWN THE CONV CHCS INTO NEXT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS THE DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED SHIFTS WEST AND
NORTH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE AXIS.

SINCE THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FOR BOTH POPS AND
TEMPS THROUGH DAY 7. THE MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED A BIT
WED ADN THURS AS THE CONV CHCS MAX OUT OVER THE AREA. WILL THEN
TREND THE TEMPS UP A BIT LATER AS THE CONV CHCS FADE A BIT AND A
LITTLE MORE DIURNALY HEATING IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ON THE
INCREASE AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO GEL TOWARDS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HAS ALSO
BEEN PRETTY STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS KEEPING THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR WED AND THURS.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND BUOY DATA INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE BAY AND GULF WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH OFFSHORE SEAS AROUND 4 FEET. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GULF. THERE IS HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AT
THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SWELLS BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
GULF WATERS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LONGER RANGE MARINE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SW
GULF SURFACE LOW. A STRONGER SURFACE LOW WOULD RESULT IN MUCH
HIGHER GULF SEAS/WINDS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SEAS REACHING UP TO
SCA LEVELS WED AND WED NIGHT WITH THE SEAS DIMINISHING DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE PGF WEAKENS AS THE TROPICAL LOW
PUSHES INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND DISSIPATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  92  81  91  79 /  20  20  50  40
BROWNSVILLE          94  79  93  78 /  20  20  50  50
HARLINGEN            96  78  94  77 /  20  20  50  40
MCALLEN              98  79  96  78 /  20  10  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  80  98  78 /  10  10  40  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   89  81  88  80 /  20  20  50  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65







000
FXUS64 KBRO 010554 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1254 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS HAS MOVED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL KEEP CONVECTION LIMITED FOR LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...CAN NOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA/TSRA BUT WILL NOT MENTION FOR THIS TAF CYCLE
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 4 TO 8 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...PRECIPITATION CHANCES /AND DEEP MOISTURE FOR THAT
MATTER/ WILL DECREASE THIS PERIOD SO HAVE NO MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS PERIOD EVEN THOUGH ONE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD WITH WINDS
CONTINUING FROM THE ESE AROUND 7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
14-15 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CURRENTLY SATELLITE AND
RADAR TREND SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25 TO
30 MPH AND SOME A BIT HIGHER WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. LIGHT SE LOW LEVEL WINDS INTERACTING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS INLAND HAVE DEVELOP AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION IN THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...12Z KBRO SOUNDING INDICATED VALUES OF 2.40 INCHES THIS
MORNING. THE ABUNDANCE IN MOISTURE IN THE ATMS WILL FAVOR CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT COVER AS MUCH AS THE
PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORT THAT WAS OVER THE CWA
LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE GULF
COAST. THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL STILL REMAIN DRY AS PWATS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE AND THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE
LOW TO MID 90S ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 AND UPPER 90S WEST OF HWY
281.

TONIGHT...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NE
WITH A WEAK LOW REMAINING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. MOISTURE
IN THAT AREA OVER THE GULF WATERS REMAINS BETWEEN 65 TO 70 PERCENT
WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER NEAR THE 80S.

MONDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST WITH
HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. PRECIPITABLE VALUES LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY RANGING
FROM 50 TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT BUT THE COVERAGE WILL BE EVEN LESS THAN TODAY. LEFT ONLY
A 20 PERCENT FROM STARR COUNTY EAST TO THE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN ALSO INCREASING THE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS OUT WEST. MONDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA SURGING DEEP MOIST
AIR INTO THE CWA ONCE AGAIN. 1000 TO 500 MB RH VALUES INCREASE TO 65
PERCENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...LEFT INHERITED
20 PERCENT POP FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE EXPECTED TO
ENTER AND TRAVERSE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...BUT LONGEVITY
WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH THE MODELS MOVING WHATEVER DEVELOPS ON THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST RATHER QUICKLY.
WEATHER RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE MOISTURE THAT
FEEDS NORTH ON THE SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW. USE OF THE NAM WAS
LIMITED AS IT WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN INCREASING POPS.

NONETHELESS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA IN THE LONG
TERM AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CLIMB ABOVE TWO INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BALANCED WITH PERSISTENCE TO YIELD PULSES OF
BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WERE NOTED OVER THE MARINE AREAS. IN ANY CASE...A FEW DAYS
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE...WITH AREAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN
FALL LIKELY TO VARY FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO A FEW INCHES
DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY PARTICULAR SPOT ENDS UP UNDER A HEAVILY
LOADED TROPICAL TOWER.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WAVE MOVES
INLAND AND CONDITIONS RECOVER WITH LOWER...ALBEIT MORE TYPICAL...
MOISTURE LEVELS. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...BUT
LIKELY A BIT MORE CLOUDS...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW
NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S HOWEVER...AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 90S OR NEAR THE CENTURY MARK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE
LOW PRESSURE THAT REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE AREA HAS
GRADUALLY LIFTED NORTHEAST TODAY LOWERING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE GULF TODAY. NOW...THE SE SWELL HAVE INCREASE SO THERE
IS A STATEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK OR RIP CURRENT ALONG THE BOCA
CHICA BEACH AND THE SPI BEACHES DUE TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ACTIVITIES. MONDAY...THE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE EXITS THE AREA
LOWERING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
WEST. THE SEAS REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND HAS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER BELIZE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY. THERE IS MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SWELLS
BUILDING SEAS OVER THE GULF WATERS BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS UP TO 5 FEET BUT THIS MAY
CHANGE. CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE DECREASE INTO MONDAY WITH LESS
HUMIDITY IN THE AREA BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE.
SE WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BREWING IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF ON TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER WHICH WILL
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WHICH
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL RESULT IN STRONGER
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY AS WINDS APPROACH 20
KNOTS...WITH WIND WAVES AND SWELL COMBINING TO BUILD SEAS TO SEVEN
FEET FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX A LITTLE AFTER MID WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA FILLS AND
MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE TO MDT...BUT
WAVE HEIGHTS DUE TO SWELL WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63






000
FXUS64 KBRO 010554 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1254 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS HAS MOVED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL KEEP CONVECTION LIMITED FOR LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...CAN NOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA/TSRA BUT WILL NOT MENTION FOR THIS TAF CYCLE
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 4 TO 8 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...PRECIPITATION CHANCES /AND DEEP MOISTURE FOR THAT
MATTER/ WILL DECREASE THIS PERIOD SO HAVE NO MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS PERIOD EVEN THOUGH ONE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD WITH WINDS
CONTINUING FROM THE ESE AROUND 7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
14-15 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CURRENTLY SATELLITE AND
RADAR TREND SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25 TO
30 MPH AND SOME A BIT HIGHER WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. LIGHT SE LOW LEVEL WINDS INTERACTING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS INLAND HAVE DEVELOP AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION IN THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...12Z KBRO SOUNDING INDICATED VALUES OF 2.40 INCHES THIS
MORNING. THE ABUNDANCE IN MOISTURE IN THE ATMS WILL FAVOR CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT COVER AS MUCH AS THE
PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORT THAT WAS OVER THE CWA
LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE GULF
COAST. THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL STILL REMAIN DRY AS PWATS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE AND THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE
LOW TO MID 90S ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 AND UPPER 90S WEST OF HWY
281.

TONIGHT...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NE
WITH A WEAK LOW REMAINING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. MOISTURE
IN THAT AREA OVER THE GULF WATERS REMAINS BETWEEN 65 TO 70 PERCENT
WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER NEAR THE 80S.

MONDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST WITH
HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. PRECIPITABLE VALUES LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY RANGING
FROM 50 TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT BUT THE COVERAGE WILL BE EVEN LESS THAN TODAY. LEFT ONLY
A 20 PERCENT FROM STARR COUNTY EAST TO THE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN ALSO INCREASING THE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS OUT WEST. MONDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA SURGING DEEP MOIST
AIR INTO THE CWA ONCE AGAIN. 1000 TO 500 MB RH VALUES INCREASE TO 65
PERCENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...LEFT INHERITED
20 PERCENT POP FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE EXPECTED TO
ENTER AND TRAVERSE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...BUT LONGEVITY
WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH THE MODELS MOVING WHATEVER DEVELOPS ON THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST RATHER QUICKLY.
WEATHER RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE MOISTURE THAT
FEEDS NORTH ON THE SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW. USE OF THE NAM WAS
LIMITED AS IT WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN INCREASING POPS.

NONETHELESS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA IN THE LONG
TERM AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CLIMB ABOVE TWO INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BALANCED WITH PERSISTENCE TO YIELD PULSES OF
BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WERE NOTED OVER THE MARINE AREAS. IN ANY CASE...A FEW DAYS
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE...WITH AREAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN
FALL LIKELY TO VARY FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO A FEW INCHES
DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY PARTICULAR SPOT ENDS UP UNDER A HEAVILY
LOADED TROPICAL TOWER.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WAVE MOVES
INLAND AND CONDITIONS RECOVER WITH LOWER...ALBEIT MORE TYPICAL...
MOISTURE LEVELS. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...BUT
LIKELY A BIT MORE CLOUDS...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW
NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S HOWEVER...AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 90S OR NEAR THE CENTURY MARK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE
LOW PRESSURE THAT REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE AREA HAS
GRADUALLY LIFTED NORTHEAST TODAY LOWERING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE GULF TODAY. NOW...THE SE SWELL HAVE INCREASE SO THERE
IS A STATEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK OR RIP CURRENT ALONG THE BOCA
CHICA BEACH AND THE SPI BEACHES DUE TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ACTIVITIES. MONDAY...THE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE EXITS THE AREA
LOWERING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
WEST. THE SEAS REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND HAS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER BELIZE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY. THERE IS MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SWELLS
BUILDING SEAS OVER THE GULF WATERS BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS UP TO 5 FEET BUT THIS MAY
CHANGE. CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE DECREASE INTO MONDAY WITH LESS
HUMIDITY IN THE AREA BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE.
SE WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BREWING IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF ON TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER WHICH WILL
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WHICH
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL RESULT IN STRONGER
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY AS WINDS APPROACH 20
KNOTS...WITH WIND WAVES AND SWELL COMBINING TO BUILD SEAS TO SEVEN
FEET FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX A LITTLE AFTER MID WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA FILLS AND
MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE TO MDT...BUT
WAVE HEIGHTS DUE TO SWELL WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63







000
FXUS64 KBRO 312344
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
644 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PRECIPITATION CHANCES /AND DEEP MOISTURE FOR THAT
MATTER/ WILL DECREASE THIS PERIOD SO HAVE NO MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS PERIOD EVEN THOUGH ONE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD WITH WINDS
CONTINUING FROM THE ESE AROUND 7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
14-15 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CURRENTLY SATELLITE AND
RADAR TREND SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25 TO
30 MPH AND SOME A BIT HIGHER WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. LIGHT SE LOW LEVEL WINDS INTERACTING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS INLAND HAVE DEVELOP AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION IN THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...12Z KBRO SOUNDING INDICATED VALUES OF 2.40 INCHES THIS
MORNING. THE ABUNDANCE IN MOISTURE IN THE ATMS WILL FAVOR CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT COVER AS MUCH AS THE
PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORT THAT WAS OVER THE CWA
LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE GULF
COAST. THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL STILL REMAIN DRY AS PWATS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE AND THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE
LOW TO MID 90S ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 AND UPPER 90S WEST OF HWY
281.

TONIGHT...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NE
WITH A WEAK LOW REMAINING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. MOISTURE
IN THAT AREA OVER THE GULF WATERS REMAINS BETWEEN 65 TO 70 PERCENT
WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER NEAR THE 80S.

MONDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST WITH
HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. PRECIPITABLE VALUES LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY RANGING
FROM 50 TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT BUT THE COVERAGE WILL BE EVEN LESS THAN TODAY. LEFT ONLY
A 20 PERCENT FROM STARR COUNTY EAST TO THE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN ALSO INCREASING THE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS OUT WEST. MONDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA SURGING DEEP MOIST
AIR INTO THE CWA ONCE AGAIN. 1000 TO 500 MB RH VALUES INCREASE TO 65
PERCENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...LEFT INHERITED
20 PERCENT POP FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE EXPECTED TO
ENTER AND TRAVERSE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...BUT LONGEVITY
WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH THE MODELS MOVING WHATEVER DEVELOPS ON THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST RATHER QUICKLY.
WEATHER RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE MOISTURE THAT
FEEDS NORTH ON THE SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW. USE OF THE NAM WAS
LIMITED AS IT WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN INCREASING POPS.

NONETHELESS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA IN THE LONG
TERM AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CLIMB ABOVE TWO INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BALANCED WITH PERSISTENCE TO YIELD PULSES OF
BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WERE NOTED OVER THE MARINE AREAS. IN ANY CASE...A FEW DAYS
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE...WITH AREAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN
FALL LIKELY TO VARY FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO A FEW INCHES
DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY PARTICULAR SPOT ENDS UP UNDER A HEAVILY
LOADED TROPICAL TOWER.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WAVE MOVES
INLAND AND CONDITIONS RECOVER WITH LOWER...ALBEIT MORE TYPICAL...
MOISTURE LEVELS. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...BUT
LIKELY A BIT MORE CLOUDS...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW
NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S HOWEVER...AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 90S OR NEAR THE CENTURY MARK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE
LOW PRESSURE THAT REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE AREA HAS
GRADUALLY LIFTED NORTHEAST TODAY LOWERING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE GULF TODAY. NOW...THE SE SWELL HAVE INCREASE SO THERE
IS A STATEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK OR RIP CURRENT ALONG THE BOCA
CHICA BEACH AND THE SPI BEACHES DUE TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ACTIVITIES. MONDAY...THE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE EXITS THE AREA
LOWERING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
WEST. THE SEAS REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND HAS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER BELIZE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY. THERE IS MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SWELLS
BUILDING SEAS OVER THE GULF WATERS BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS UP TO 5 FEET BUT THIS MAY
CHANGE. CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE DECREASE INTO MONDAY WITH LESS
HUMIDITY IN THE AREA BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE.
SE WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BREWING IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF ON TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER WHICH WILL
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WHICH
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL RESULT IN STRONGER
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY AS WINDS APPROACH 20
KNOTS...WITH WIND WAVES AND SWELL COMBINING TO BUILD SEAS TO SEVEN
FEET FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX A LITTLE AFTER MID WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA FILLS AND
MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE TO MDT...BUT
WAVE HEIGHTS DUE TO SWELL WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55







000
FXUS64 KBRO 312344
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
644 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PRECIPITATION CHANCES /AND DEEP MOISTURE FOR THAT
MATTER/ WILL DECREASE THIS PERIOD SO HAVE NO MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS PERIOD EVEN THOUGH ONE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD WITH WINDS
CONTINUING FROM THE ESE AROUND 7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
14-15 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CURRENTLY SATELLITE AND
RADAR TREND SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25 TO
30 MPH AND SOME A BIT HIGHER WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. LIGHT SE LOW LEVEL WINDS INTERACTING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS INLAND HAVE DEVELOP AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION IN THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...12Z KBRO SOUNDING INDICATED VALUES OF 2.40 INCHES THIS
MORNING. THE ABUNDANCE IN MOISTURE IN THE ATMS WILL FAVOR CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT COVER AS MUCH AS THE
PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORT THAT WAS OVER THE CWA
LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE GULF
COAST. THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL STILL REMAIN DRY AS PWATS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE AND THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE
LOW TO MID 90S ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 AND UPPER 90S WEST OF HWY
281.

TONIGHT...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NE
WITH A WEAK LOW REMAINING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. MOISTURE
IN THAT AREA OVER THE GULF WATERS REMAINS BETWEEN 65 TO 70 PERCENT
WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER NEAR THE 80S.

MONDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST WITH
HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. PRECIPITABLE VALUES LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY RANGING
FROM 50 TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT BUT THE COVERAGE WILL BE EVEN LESS THAN TODAY. LEFT ONLY
A 20 PERCENT FROM STARR COUNTY EAST TO THE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN ALSO INCREASING THE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS OUT WEST. MONDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA SURGING DEEP MOIST
AIR INTO THE CWA ONCE AGAIN. 1000 TO 500 MB RH VALUES INCREASE TO 65
PERCENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...LEFT INHERITED
20 PERCENT POP FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE EXPECTED TO
ENTER AND TRAVERSE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...BUT LONGEVITY
WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH THE MODELS MOVING WHATEVER DEVELOPS ON THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST RATHER QUICKLY.
WEATHER RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE MOISTURE THAT
FEEDS NORTH ON THE SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW. USE OF THE NAM WAS
LIMITED AS IT WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN INCREASING POPS.

NONETHELESS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA IN THE LONG
TERM AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CLIMB ABOVE TWO INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BALANCED WITH PERSISTENCE TO YIELD PULSES OF
BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WERE NOTED OVER THE MARINE AREAS. IN ANY CASE...A FEW DAYS
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE...WITH AREAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN
FALL LIKELY TO VARY FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO A FEW INCHES
DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY PARTICULAR SPOT ENDS UP UNDER A HEAVILY
LOADED TROPICAL TOWER.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WAVE MOVES
INLAND AND CONDITIONS RECOVER WITH LOWER...ALBEIT MORE TYPICAL...
MOISTURE LEVELS. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...BUT
LIKELY A BIT MORE CLOUDS...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW
NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S HOWEVER...AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 90S OR NEAR THE CENTURY MARK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE
LOW PRESSURE THAT REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE AREA HAS
GRADUALLY LIFTED NORTHEAST TODAY LOWERING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE GULF TODAY. NOW...THE SE SWELL HAVE INCREASE SO THERE
IS A STATEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK OR RIP CURRENT ALONG THE BOCA
CHICA BEACH AND THE SPI BEACHES DUE TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ACTIVITIES. MONDAY...THE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE EXITS THE AREA
LOWERING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
WEST. THE SEAS REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND HAS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER BELIZE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY. THERE IS MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SWELLS
BUILDING SEAS OVER THE GULF WATERS BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS UP TO 5 FEET BUT THIS MAY
CHANGE. CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE DECREASE INTO MONDAY WITH LESS
HUMIDITY IN THE AREA BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE.
SE WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BREWING IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF ON TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER WHICH WILL
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WHICH
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL RESULT IN STRONGER
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY AS WINDS APPROACH 20
KNOTS...WITH WIND WAVES AND SWELL COMBINING TO BUILD SEAS TO SEVEN
FEET FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX A LITTLE AFTER MID WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA FILLS AND
MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE TO MDT...BUT
WAVE HEIGHTS DUE TO SWELL WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55






000
FXUS64 KBRO 311953
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
253 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CURRENTLY SATELLITE AND
RADAR TREND SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25 TO
30 MPH AND SOME A BIT HIGHER WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. LIGHT SE LOW LEVEL WINDS INTERACTING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS INLAND HAVE DEVELOP AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION IN THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...12Z KBRO SOUNDING INDICATED VALUES OF 2.40 INCHES THIS
MORNING. THE ABUNDANCE IN MOISTURE IN THE ATMS WILL FAVOR CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT COVER AS MUCH AS THE
PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORT THAT WAS OVER THE CWA
LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE GULF
COAST. THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL STILL REMAIN DRY AS PWATS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE AND THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE
LOW TO MID 90S ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 AND UPPER 90S WEST OF HWY
281.

TONIGHT...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NE
WITH A WEAK LOW REMAINING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. MOISTURE
IN THAT AREA OVER THE GULF WATERS REMAINS BETWEEN 65 TO 70 PERCENT
WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER NEAR THE 80S.

MONDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST WITH
HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. PRECIPITABLE VALUES LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY RANGING
FROM 50 TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT BUT THE COVERAGE WILL BE EVEN LESS THAN TODAY. LEFT ONLY
A 20 PERCENT FROM STARR COUNTY EAST TO THE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN ALSO INCREASING THE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS OUT WEST. MONDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA SURGING DEEP MOIST
AIR INTO THE CWA ONCE AGAIN. 1000 TO 500 MB RH VALUES INCREASE TO 65
PERCENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...LEFT INHERITED
20 PERCENT POP FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE EXPECTED TO
ENTER AND TRAVERSE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...BUT LONGEVITY
WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH THE MODELS MOVING WHATEVER DEVELOPS ON THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST RATHER QUICKLY.
WEATHER RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE MOISTURE THAT
FEEDS NORTH ON THE SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW. USE OF THE NAM WAS
LIMITED AS IT WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN INCREASING POPS.

NONETHELESS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA IN THE LONG
TERM AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CLIMB ABOVE TWO INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BALANCED WITH PERSISTENCE TO YIELD PULSES OF
BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WERE NOTED OVER THE MARINE AREAS. IN ANY CASE...A FEW DAYS
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE...WITH AREAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN
FALL LIKELY TO VARY FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO A FEW INCHES
DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY PARTICULAR SPOT ENDS UP UNDER A HEAVILY
LOADED TROPICAL TOWER.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WAVE MOVES
INLAND AND CONDITIONS RECOVER WITH LOWER...ALBEIT MORE TYPICAL...
MOISTURE LEVELS. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...BUT
LIKELY A BIT MORE CLOUDS...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW
NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S HOWEVER...AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 90S OR NEAR THE CENTURY MARK.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE
LOW PRESSURE THAT REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE AREA HAS
GRADUALLY LIFTED NORTHEAST TODAY LOWERING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE GULF TODAY. NOW...THE SE SWELL HAVE INCREASE SO THERE
IS A STATEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK OR RIP CURRENT ALONG THE BOCA
CHICA BEACH AND THE SPI BEACHES DUE TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ACTIVITIES. MONDAY...THE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE EXITS THE AREA
LOWERING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
WEST. THE SEAS REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND HAS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER BELIZE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY. THERE IS MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SWELLS
BUILDING SEAS OVER THE GULF WATERS BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS UP TO 5 FEET BUT THIS MAY
CHANGE. CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE DECREASE INTO MONDAY WITH LESS
HUMIDITY IN THE AREA BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE.
SE WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BREWING IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF ON TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER WHICH WILL
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WHICH
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL RESULT IN STRONGER
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY AS WINDS APPROACH 20
KNOTS...WITH WIND WAVES AND SWELL COMBINING TO BUILD SEAS TO SEVEN
FEET FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX A LITTLE AFTER MID WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA FILLS AND
MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE TO MDT...BUT
WAVE HEIGHTS DUE TO SWELL WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  92  80  90 /  20  20  20  40
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  78  91 /  20  20  20  40
HARLINGEN            78  96  77  92 /  20  20  20  50
MCALLEN              80  98  79  94 /  10  20  10  60
RIO GRANDE CITY      79  99  79  95 /  10  10  10  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  89  80  88 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/54/58






000
FXUS64 KBRO 311953
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
253 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CURRENTLY SATELLITE AND
RADAR TREND SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25 TO
30 MPH AND SOME A BIT HIGHER WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. LIGHT SE LOW LEVEL WINDS INTERACTING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS INLAND HAVE DEVELOP AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION IN THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...12Z KBRO SOUNDING INDICATED VALUES OF 2.40 INCHES THIS
MORNING. THE ABUNDANCE IN MOISTURE IN THE ATMS WILL FAVOR CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT COVER AS MUCH AS THE
PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORT THAT WAS OVER THE CWA
LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE GULF
COAST. THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL STILL REMAIN DRY AS PWATS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE AND THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE
LOW TO MID 90S ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 AND UPPER 90S WEST OF HWY
281.

TONIGHT...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NE
WITH A WEAK LOW REMAINING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. MOISTURE
IN THAT AREA OVER THE GULF WATERS REMAINS BETWEEN 65 TO 70 PERCENT
WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER NEAR THE 80S.

MONDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST WITH
HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. PRECIPITABLE VALUES LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY RANGING
FROM 50 TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT BUT THE COVERAGE WILL BE EVEN LESS THAN TODAY. LEFT ONLY
A 20 PERCENT FROM STARR COUNTY EAST TO THE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN ALSO INCREASING THE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS OUT WEST. MONDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA SURGING DEEP MOIST
AIR INTO THE CWA ONCE AGAIN. 1000 TO 500 MB RH VALUES INCREASE TO 65
PERCENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...LEFT INHERITED
20 PERCENT POP FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE EXPECTED TO
ENTER AND TRAVERSE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...BUT LONGEVITY
WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH THE MODELS MOVING WHATEVER DEVELOPS ON THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST RATHER QUICKLY.
WEATHER RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE MOISTURE THAT
FEEDS NORTH ON THE SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW. USE OF THE NAM WAS
LIMITED AS IT WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN INCREASING POPS.

NONETHELESS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA IN THE LONG
TERM AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CLIMB ABOVE TWO INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BALANCED WITH PERSISTENCE TO YIELD PULSES OF
BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WERE NOTED OVER THE MARINE AREAS. IN ANY CASE...A FEW DAYS
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE...WITH AREAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN
FALL LIKELY TO VARY FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO A FEW INCHES
DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY PARTICULAR SPOT ENDS UP UNDER A HEAVILY
LOADED TROPICAL TOWER.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WAVE MOVES
INLAND AND CONDITIONS RECOVER WITH LOWER...ALBEIT MORE TYPICAL...
MOISTURE LEVELS. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...BUT
LIKELY A BIT MORE CLOUDS...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW
NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S HOWEVER...AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 90S OR NEAR THE CENTURY MARK.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE
LOW PRESSURE THAT REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE AREA HAS
GRADUALLY LIFTED NORTHEAST TODAY LOWERING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE GULF TODAY. NOW...THE SE SWELL HAVE INCREASE SO THERE
IS A STATEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK OR RIP CURRENT ALONG THE BOCA
CHICA BEACH AND THE SPI BEACHES DUE TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ACTIVITIES. MONDAY...THE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE EXITS THE AREA
LOWERING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
WEST. THE SEAS REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND HAS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER BELIZE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY. THERE IS MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SWELLS
BUILDING SEAS OVER THE GULF WATERS BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS UP TO 5 FEET BUT THIS MAY
CHANGE. CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE DECREASE INTO MONDAY WITH LESS
HUMIDITY IN THE AREA BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE.
SE WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BREWING IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF ON TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER WHICH WILL
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WHICH
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL RESULT IN STRONGER
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY AS WINDS APPROACH 20
KNOTS...WITH WIND WAVES AND SWELL COMBINING TO BUILD SEAS TO SEVEN
FEET FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX A LITTLE AFTER MID WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA FILLS AND
MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE TO MDT...BUT
WAVE HEIGHTS DUE TO SWELL WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  92  80  90 /  20  20  20  40
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  78  91 /  20  20  20  40
HARLINGEN            78  96  77  92 /  20  20  20  50
MCALLEN              80  98  79  94 /  10  20  10  60
RIO GRANDE CITY      79  99  79  95 /  10  10  10  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  89  80  88 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/54/58







000
FXUS64 KBRO 311755
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1255 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COASTAL COUNTIES PRODUCING BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO
IMPACT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS KHRL AND KBRO. HOWEVER...KMFE MAY
SEE MORE ACTIVITY AFTER 19Z. THE CONVECTION BEGINS TO DIMINISH
AFTER 00Z AS WE LOOSE OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT ABUNDANT DEBRI CLOUD
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER MIDNIGHT MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT OVER MFE BUT SHOULD STAY LOW END VFR
FOR KHRL AND KBRO. BRIEF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE MORNING CONV HAS BEEN MORE LIMITED TODAY AND HAS
BEEN HOLDING NEAR THE COASTLINE MOVING TO THE NORTH. THE ATMS
REMAINS PRETTY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY. BELIEVE THAT THE CONV
TRENDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNINGS WITH THE BULK OF THE
CONV AFFECTING THE RGV AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE CONV DYING DOWN IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES SOMEWHAT. SO WILL
MENTION PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF VSBYS AND CEILINGS DUE TO THE
PASSING CONV. SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
RGV AIRPORTS BUT DID NOT INCLUDE AN ACTUAL MENTION OF THIS WITH
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...THE 500 MB TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT OF 2.45 INCHES AND A CAPE OF 3433 J/KG.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONV TODAY. THE LATEST KBRO
RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES SCATTERED RW/TRW EXTENDING FROM NEAR
SP1 DOWN ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE NEAR TAMPICO. ALL THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING UP NORTH. THE ACTIVITY TODAY IS LESS
ORGANIZED AND INTENSE VERSUS WHAT WAS GOING ON OVER THE AREA EARLY
YESTERDAY MORNING. THIS INDICATES THAT THE ATMS MAY BE STABILIZING
A BIT OR THAT THE 500 MB TROFFING IS STARTING TO WEAKEN.

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE 500 MB TROFFING WILL BE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERALL CONV TRENDS THROUGH MON. ENOUGH
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO TOMORROW TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SEA BREEZE EFFECTS TO MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC OF POPS. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MET AND ECMWF POP GUIDANCE WHICH IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT VERSUS THE GFS MAV GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS DRY
OUT THE ATMS A LITTLE TOO FAST ON MON.

SINCE THE CONV COVERAGE IS LESS TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY WILL NOT
MENTION ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR TODAY. ALSO BELIEVE THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE MUCH LOWER TODAY
VERSUS YESTERDAY.

AS THE 500 MB TROFFING GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION HIGH TEMPS
WILL START TO INCREASE STEADILY AS THE RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE
AREA. WILL GO WITH A MAV/MET/ECMWF MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGHOUT
THE SHORT TERM AS ALL ARE REFLECTING A GENERAL WARM UP THROUGH
MON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
TO BETWEEN 2 TO 2.3 INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION APPEARS TO
BE ON WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS REACH 2.4 INCHES
/ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST/ AND WITH MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
AROUND 80 PERCENT AT 1000-500MB. ALSO WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
BETWEEN TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ IN MEXICO. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CONCERNING THE PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S ALONG THE BEACHES TO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COURTESY OF THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION AND RAIN CHANCES DECREASE.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF
WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER
TEXAS BAY AND GULF WATERS.  BAY AND GULF SWELLS WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH NO SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS BY TUESDAY. INCREASING SWELL ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE MAY RESULT IN SOME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE GULF FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/54







000
FXUS64 KBRO 311755
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1255 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COASTAL COUNTIES PRODUCING BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO
IMPACT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS KHRL AND KBRO. HOWEVER...KMFE MAY
SEE MORE ACTIVITY AFTER 19Z. THE CONVECTION BEGINS TO DIMINISH
AFTER 00Z AS WE LOOSE OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT ABUNDANT DEBRI CLOUD
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER MIDNIGHT MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT OVER MFE BUT SHOULD STAY LOW END VFR
FOR KHRL AND KBRO. BRIEF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE MORNING CONV HAS BEEN MORE LIMITED TODAY AND HAS
BEEN HOLDING NEAR THE COASTLINE MOVING TO THE NORTH. THE ATMS
REMAINS PRETTY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY. BELIEVE THAT THE CONV
TRENDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNINGS WITH THE BULK OF THE
CONV AFFECTING THE RGV AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE CONV DYING DOWN IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES SOMEWHAT. SO WILL
MENTION PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF VSBYS AND CEILINGS DUE TO THE
PASSING CONV. SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
RGV AIRPORTS BUT DID NOT INCLUDE AN ACTUAL MENTION OF THIS WITH
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...THE 500 MB TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT OF 2.45 INCHES AND A CAPE OF 3433 J/KG.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONV TODAY. THE LATEST KBRO
RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES SCATTERED RW/TRW EXTENDING FROM NEAR
SP1 DOWN ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE NEAR TAMPICO. ALL THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING UP NORTH. THE ACTIVITY TODAY IS LESS
ORGANIZED AND INTENSE VERSUS WHAT WAS GOING ON OVER THE AREA EARLY
YESTERDAY MORNING. THIS INDICATES THAT THE ATMS MAY BE STABILIZING
A BIT OR THAT THE 500 MB TROFFING IS STARTING TO WEAKEN.

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE 500 MB TROFFING WILL BE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERALL CONV TRENDS THROUGH MON. ENOUGH
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO TOMORROW TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SEA BREEZE EFFECTS TO MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC OF POPS. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MET AND ECMWF POP GUIDANCE WHICH IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT VERSUS THE GFS MAV GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS DRY
OUT THE ATMS A LITTLE TOO FAST ON MON.

SINCE THE CONV COVERAGE IS LESS TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY WILL NOT
MENTION ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR TODAY. ALSO BELIEVE THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE MUCH LOWER TODAY
VERSUS YESTERDAY.

AS THE 500 MB TROFFING GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION HIGH TEMPS
WILL START TO INCREASE STEADILY AS THE RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE
AREA. WILL GO WITH A MAV/MET/ECMWF MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGHOUT
THE SHORT TERM AS ALL ARE REFLECTING A GENERAL WARM UP THROUGH
MON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
TO BETWEEN 2 TO 2.3 INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION APPEARS TO
BE ON WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS REACH 2.4 INCHES
/ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST/ AND WITH MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
AROUND 80 PERCENT AT 1000-500MB. ALSO WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
BETWEEN TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ IN MEXICO. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CONCERNING THE PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S ALONG THE BEACHES TO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COURTESY OF THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION AND RAIN CHANCES DECREASE.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF
WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER
TEXAS BAY AND GULF WATERS.  BAY AND GULF SWELLS WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH NO SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS BY TUESDAY. INCREASING SWELL ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE MAY RESULT IN SOME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE GULF FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/54








000
FXUS64 KBRO 311202 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
702 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE MORNING CONV HAS BEEN MORE LIMITED TODAY AND HAS
BEEN HOLDING NEAR THE COASTLINE MOVING TO THE NORTH. THE ATMS
REMAINS PRETTY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY. BELIEVE THAT THE CONV
TRENDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNINGS WITH THE BULK OF THE
CONV AFFECTING THE RGV AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE CONV DYING DOWN IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES SOMEWHAT. SO WILL
MENTION PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF VSBYS AND CEILINGS DUE TO THE
PASSING CONV. SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
RGV AIRPORTS BUT DID NOT INCLUDE AN ACTUAL MENTION OF THIS WITH
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...THE 500 MB TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT OF 2.45 INCHES AND A CAPE OF 3433 J/KG.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONV TODAY. THE LATEST KBRO
RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES SCATTERED RW/TRW EXTENDING FROM NEAR
SP1 DOWN ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE NEAR TAMPICO. ALL THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING UP NORTH. THE ACTIVITY TODAY IS LESS
ORGANIZED AND INTENSE VERSUS WHAT WAS GOING ON OVER THE AREA EARLY
YESTERDAY MORNING. THIS INDICATES THAT THE ATMS MAY BE STABILIZING
A BIT OR THAT THE 500 MB TROFFING IS STARTING TO WEAKEN.

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE 500 MB TROFFING WILL BE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERALL CONV TRENDS THROUGH MON. ENOUGH
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO TOMORROW TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SEA BREEZE EFFECTS TO MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC OF POPS. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MET AND ECMWF POP GUIDANCE WHICH IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT VERSUS THE GFS MAV GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS DRY
OUT THE ATMS A LITTLE TOO FAST ON MON.

SINCE THE CONV COVERAGE IS LESS TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY WILL NOT
MENTION ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR TODAY. ALSO BELIEVE THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE MUCH LOWER TODAY
VERSUS YESTERDAY.

AS THE 500 MB TROFFING GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION HIGH TEMPS
WILL START TO INCREASE STEADILY AS THE RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE
AREA. WILL GO WITH A MAV/MET/ECMWF MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGHOUT
THE SHORT TERM AS ALL ARE REFLECTING A GENERAL WARM UP THROUGH
MON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
TO BETWEEN 2 TO 2.3 INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION APPEARS TO
BE ON WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS REACH 2.4 INCHES
/ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST/ AND WITH MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
AROUND 80 PERCENT AT 1000-500MB. ALSO WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
BETWEEN TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ IN MEXICO. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CONCERNING THE PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S ALONG THE BEACHES TO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COURTESY OF THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION AND RAIN CHANCES DECREASE.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF
WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER
TEXAS BAY AND GULF WATERS.  BAY AND GULF SWELLS WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH NO SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS BY TUESDAY. INCREASING SWELL ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE MAY RESULT IN SOME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE GULF FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  80  92  80 /  50  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          92  78  94  78 /  50  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            93  77  95  77 /  50  20  20  20
MCALLEN              96  79  97  79 /  40  20  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      97  79  99  79 /  40  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  80  89  80 /  50  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65







000
FXUS64 KBRO 311202 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
702 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE MORNING CONV HAS BEEN MORE LIMITED TODAY AND HAS
BEEN HOLDING NEAR THE COASTLINE MOVING TO THE NORTH. THE ATMS
REMAINS PRETTY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY. BELIEVE THAT THE CONV
TRENDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNINGS WITH THE BULK OF THE
CONV AFFECTING THE RGV AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE CONV DYING DOWN IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES SOMEWHAT. SO WILL
MENTION PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF VSBYS AND CEILINGS DUE TO THE
PASSING CONV. SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
RGV AIRPORTS BUT DID NOT INCLUDE AN ACTUAL MENTION OF THIS WITH
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...THE 500 MB TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT OF 2.45 INCHES AND A CAPE OF 3433 J/KG.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONV TODAY. THE LATEST KBRO
RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES SCATTERED RW/TRW EXTENDING FROM NEAR
SP1 DOWN ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE NEAR TAMPICO. ALL THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING UP NORTH. THE ACTIVITY TODAY IS LESS
ORGANIZED AND INTENSE VERSUS WHAT WAS GOING ON OVER THE AREA EARLY
YESTERDAY MORNING. THIS INDICATES THAT THE ATMS MAY BE STABILIZING
A BIT OR THAT THE 500 MB TROFFING IS STARTING TO WEAKEN.

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE 500 MB TROFFING WILL BE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERALL CONV TRENDS THROUGH MON. ENOUGH
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO TOMORROW TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SEA BREEZE EFFECTS TO MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC OF POPS. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MET AND ECMWF POP GUIDANCE WHICH IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT VERSUS THE GFS MAV GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS DRY
OUT THE ATMS A LITTLE TOO FAST ON MON.

SINCE THE CONV COVERAGE IS LESS TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY WILL NOT
MENTION ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR TODAY. ALSO BELIEVE THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE MUCH LOWER TODAY
VERSUS YESTERDAY.

AS THE 500 MB TROFFING GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION HIGH TEMPS
WILL START TO INCREASE STEADILY AS THE RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE
AREA. WILL GO WITH A MAV/MET/ECMWF MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGHOUT
THE SHORT TERM AS ALL ARE REFLECTING A GENERAL WARM UP THROUGH
MON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
TO BETWEEN 2 TO 2.3 INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION APPEARS TO
BE ON WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS REACH 2.4 INCHES
/ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST/ AND WITH MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
AROUND 80 PERCENT AT 1000-500MB. ALSO WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
BETWEEN TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ IN MEXICO. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CONCERNING THE PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S ALONG THE BEACHES TO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COURTESY OF THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION AND RAIN CHANCES DECREASE.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF
WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER
TEXAS BAY AND GULF WATERS.  BAY AND GULF SWELLS WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH NO SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS BY TUESDAY. INCREASING SWELL ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE MAY RESULT IN SOME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE GULF FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  80  92  80 /  50  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          92  78  94  78 /  50  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            93  77  95  77 /  50  20  20  20
MCALLEN              96  79  97  79 /  40  20  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      97  79  99  79 /  40  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  80  89  80 /  50  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65






000
FXUS64 KBRO 310925
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
425 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...THE 500 MB TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT OF 2.45 INCHES AND A CAPE OF 3433 J/KG.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONV TODAY. THE LATEST KBRO
RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES SCATTERED RW/TRW EXTENDING FROM NEAR
SP1 DOWN ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE NEAR TAMPICO. ALL THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING UP NORTH. THE ACTIVITY TODAY IS LESS
ORGANIZED AND INTENSE VERSUS WHAT WAS GOING ON OVER THE AREA EARLY
YESTERDAY MORNING. THIS INDICATES THAT THE ATMS MAY BE STABILIZING
A BIT OR THAT THE 500 MB TROFFING IS STARTING TO WEAKEN.

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE 500 MB TROFFING WILL BE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERALL CONV TRENDS THROUGH MON. ENOUGH
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO TOMORROW TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SEA BREEZE EFFECTS TO MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC OF POPS. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MET AND ECMWF POP GUIDANCE WHICH IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT VERSUS THE GFS MAV GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS DRY
OUT THE ATMS A LITTLE TOO FAST ON MON.

SINCE THE CONV COVERAGE IS LESS TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY WILL NOT
MENTION ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR TODAY. ALSO BELIEVE THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE MUCH LOWER TODAY
VERSUS YESTERDAY.

AS THE 500 MB TROFFING GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION HIGH TEMPS
WILL START TO INCREASE STEADILY AS THE RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE
AREA. WILL GO WITH A MAV/MET/ECMWF MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGHOUT
THE SHORT TERM AS ALL ARE REFLECTING A GENERAL WARM UP THROUGH
MON.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
TO BETWEEN 2 TO 2.3 INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION APPEARS TO
BE ON WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS REACH 2.4 INCHES
/ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST/ AND WITH MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
AROUND 80 PERCENT AT 1000-500MB. ALSO WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
BETWEEN TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ IN MEXICO. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CONCERNING THE PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S ALONG THE BEACHES TO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COURTESY OF THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION AND RAIN CHANCES DECREASE.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF
WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER
TEXAS BAY AND GULF WATERS.  BAY AND GULF SWELLS WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH NO SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS BY TUESDAY. INCREASING SWELL ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE MAY RESULT IN SOME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE GULF FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  80  92  80 /  50  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          92  78  94  78 /  50  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            93  77  95  77 /  50  20  20  20
MCALLEN              96  79  97  79 /  40  20  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      97  79  99  79 /  40  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  80  89  80 /  50  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...BIRCHFIELD






000
FXUS64 KBRO 310925
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
425 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...THE 500 MB TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT OF 2.45 INCHES AND A CAPE OF 3433 J/KG.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONV TODAY. THE LATEST KBRO
RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES SCATTERED RW/TRW EXTENDING FROM NEAR
SP1 DOWN ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE NEAR TAMPICO. ALL THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING UP NORTH. THE ACTIVITY TODAY IS LESS
ORGANIZED AND INTENSE VERSUS WHAT WAS GOING ON OVER THE AREA EARLY
YESTERDAY MORNING. THIS INDICATES THAT THE ATMS MAY BE STABILIZING
A BIT OR THAT THE 500 MB TROFFING IS STARTING TO WEAKEN.

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE 500 MB TROFFING WILL BE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERALL CONV TRENDS THROUGH MON. ENOUGH
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO TOMORROW TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SEA BREEZE EFFECTS TO MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC OF POPS. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MET AND ECMWF POP GUIDANCE WHICH IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT VERSUS THE GFS MAV GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS DRY
OUT THE ATMS A LITTLE TOO FAST ON MON.

SINCE THE CONV COVERAGE IS LESS TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY WILL NOT
MENTION ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR TODAY. ALSO BELIEVE THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE MUCH LOWER TODAY
VERSUS YESTERDAY.

AS THE 500 MB TROFFING GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION HIGH TEMPS
WILL START TO INCREASE STEADILY AS THE RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE
AREA. WILL GO WITH A MAV/MET/ECMWF MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGHOUT
THE SHORT TERM AS ALL ARE REFLECTING A GENERAL WARM UP THROUGH
MON.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
TO BETWEEN 2 TO 2.3 INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION APPEARS TO
BE ON WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS REACH 2.4 INCHES
/ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST/ AND WITH MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
AROUND 80 PERCENT AT 1000-500MB. ALSO WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
BETWEEN TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ IN MEXICO. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CONCERNING THE PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S ALONG THE BEACHES TO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COURTESY OF THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION AND RAIN CHANCES DECREASE.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF
WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER
TEXAS BAY AND GULF WATERS.  BAY AND GULF SWELLS WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH NO SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS BY TUESDAY. INCREASING SWELL ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE MAY RESULT IN SOME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE GULF FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  80  92  80 /  50  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          92  78  94  78 /  50  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            93  77  95  77 /  50  20  20  20
MCALLEN              96  79  97  79 /  40  20  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      97  79  99  79 /  40  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  80  89  80 /  50  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...BIRCHFIELD







000
FXUS64 KBRO 310622 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
122 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLD
COVER MOVING OVER THE REGION FROM THE CONV EARLIER YESTERDAY
EVENING. THE ATMS REMAINS PRETTY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH THE 00Z
BRO SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT OF 2.45 INCHES AND A CAPE OF 3433
J/KG. THE LATEST KBRO REFLECTIVITY INDICATES THAT SOME NARROW
LINES OF CONV ARE STARTING TO FORM UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE MOVING NNW TOWARDS THE RGV. BELIEVE THAT THE CONV TRENDS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNINGS WITH THE BULK OF THE CONV
AFFECTING THE RGV AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE CONV DYING DOWN IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES SOMEWHAT. SO WILL
MENTION PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF VSBYS AND CEILINGS DUE TO THE
PASSING CONV.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...TSRA ON THE DECREASE JUST WEST OF MFE WITH POSSIBILITY
OF A SHOWER OR TWO MOVING INTO THAT TERMINAL THROUGH 02Z. MUCH
LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW SHRA/TSRA
INCREASE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AFT 07Z. HAVE VCSH AT BRO AND
HRL AFT 07Z LASTING INTO THE MORNING WITH TSRA POSSIBLE AFT 14Z.
VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IN
HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA WHERE MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL WANE IN THE COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDDLE VALLEY INCLUDING MFE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOWER HEIGHTS AND BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST...A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS IN THE MIDDLE OF BROAD HIGH OVER THE
PACIFIC AND ANOTHER HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS KEEPING THIS
UNSTABLE AREA WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER US FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CURRENTLY...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INITIATE AND
WITH COVERAGE  EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LATEST PWATS AND RH VALUES CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VALUES
AROUND 2.5 INCHES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS WILL
FAVOR ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL QUIET DOWN CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT
AND WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN BETWEEN THE MID TO LOW
70S. AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG THE
COAST FAVORING THE IMMEDIATE COAST SECTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 77. THIS WILL EXTEND WESTWARD
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL LOWER INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH A LOW 20
PERCENT AS THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS INVERTED
TROUGH WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 90S TODAY AND UPPER 90S INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH EVER
SO SLIGHTLY MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
ENTERS THE REGION TUE-THURSDAY.

MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO
ITS APPROACH OF THE YUCATAN SUNDAY BUT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CONTINUES WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL
TRENDS SEND A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS
EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE LAST FEW MODEL
RUNS. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AND DOES SHOW
ANY SIGNS OF TIGHTENING NEAR A COMMON CENTER THE LEADING EDGE OF
MOISTURE COULD ARRIVE EARLY. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIMITED
ORGANIZATION WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP THE SYSTEM A ROBUST
WAVE. NAM IS THE OUTLIER DEVELOPING A TIGHT CIRCULATION AND
TRACKING THE CENTER ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE.

FORECAST REMAINS IN TACT WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THEN
INCREASING TUESDAY PEAKING TUESDAY NIGHT, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS HOVERING BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.6
INCHES AND MEAN RH OF AROUND 80 PERCENT IN THE 1000-500MB LAYER
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR GOOD CHANCES OR LIKELY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING UPWARDS WITH THE
POPS DURING THE PEAK TIMES LISTED. GOING FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED WITH STILL SOME TIME TO BUMP POPS UP TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY AS THE WAVE EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

THEN AS THE WAVE MOVES WELL INLAND AND DISSIPATES LINGER MOISTURE
HANGS AROUND AT LEAST GIVING THE REGION A LOW END CHANCE OF RAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO REMAIN THE SAME WITH SOME INCREASE IN
TEMPS MONDAY THEN A GRADUAL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH THE TEMPERATURES
MIGHT BE COOLER THE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING 75 TO 80 DEGREES. UGGH.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS
OVER THE GULF WATERS AND THE LAGUNA WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE.
HOWEVER ...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CONVECTION
THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WHICH COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF OUTFLOWS CLOSE TO THE STORMS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE FOR SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AS A TROPICAL WAVE EMERGES OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A LONG FETCH OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
TO DEVELOP A LONG PERIOD SWELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF. SWELLS TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ARE MORE
DIFFICULT TO TACKLE IF THE WAVE REMAINS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND DOES
NOT STRENGTHEN. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MAY DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVE AXIS MAKES IT CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE WAVE MOVING INLAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  80  92  80 /  30  20  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          94  77  95  78 /  30  20  20  10
HARLINGEN            95  76  96  77 /  30  20  20  10
MCALLEN              97  78  98  79 /  30  20  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      98  80  99  79 /  30  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  79  89  80 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63







000
FXUS64 KBRO 310622 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
122 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLD
COVER MOVING OVER THE REGION FROM THE CONV EARLIER YESTERDAY
EVENING. THE ATMS REMAINS PRETTY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH THE 00Z
BRO SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT OF 2.45 INCHES AND A CAPE OF 3433
J/KG. THE LATEST KBRO REFLECTIVITY INDICATES THAT SOME NARROW
LINES OF CONV ARE STARTING TO FORM UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE MOVING NNW TOWARDS THE RGV. BELIEVE THAT THE CONV TRENDS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNINGS WITH THE BULK OF THE CONV
AFFECTING THE RGV AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE CONV DYING DOWN IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES SOMEWHAT. SO WILL
MENTION PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF VSBYS AND CEILINGS DUE TO THE
PASSING CONV.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...TSRA ON THE DECREASE JUST WEST OF MFE WITH POSSIBILITY
OF A SHOWER OR TWO MOVING INTO THAT TERMINAL THROUGH 02Z. MUCH
LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW SHRA/TSRA
INCREASE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AFT 07Z. HAVE VCSH AT BRO AND
HRL AFT 07Z LASTING INTO THE MORNING WITH TSRA POSSIBLE AFT 14Z.
VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IN
HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA WHERE MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL WANE IN THE COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDDLE VALLEY INCLUDING MFE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOWER HEIGHTS AND BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST...A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS IN THE MIDDLE OF BROAD HIGH OVER THE
PACIFIC AND ANOTHER HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS KEEPING THIS
UNSTABLE AREA WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER US FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CURRENTLY...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INITIATE AND
WITH COVERAGE  EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LATEST PWATS AND RH VALUES CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VALUES
AROUND 2.5 INCHES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS WILL
FAVOR ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL QUIET DOWN CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT
AND WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN BETWEEN THE MID TO LOW
70S. AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG THE
COAST FAVORING THE IMMEDIATE COAST SECTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 77. THIS WILL EXTEND WESTWARD
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL LOWER INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH A LOW 20
PERCENT AS THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS INVERTED
TROUGH WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 90S TODAY AND UPPER 90S INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH EVER
SO SLIGHTLY MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
ENTERS THE REGION TUE-THURSDAY.

MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO
ITS APPROACH OF THE YUCATAN SUNDAY BUT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CONTINUES WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL
TRENDS SEND A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS
EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE LAST FEW MODEL
RUNS. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AND DOES SHOW
ANY SIGNS OF TIGHTENING NEAR A COMMON CENTER THE LEADING EDGE OF
MOISTURE COULD ARRIVE EARLY. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIMITED
ORGANIZATION WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP THE SYSTEM A ROBUST
WAVE. NAM IS THE OUTLIER DEVELOPING A TIGHT CIRCULATION AND
TRACKING THE CENTER ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE.

FORECAST REMAINS IN TACT WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THEN
INCREASING TUESDAY PEAKING TUESDAY NIGHT, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS HOVERING BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.6
INCHES AND MEAN RH OF AROUND 80 PERCENT IN THE 1000-500MB LAYER
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR GOOD CHANCES OR LIKELY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING UPWARDS WITH THE
POPS DURING THE PEAK TIMES LISTED. GOING FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED WITH STILL SOME TIME TO BUMP POPS UP TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY AS THE WAVE EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

THEN AS THE WAVE MOVES WELL INLAND AND DISSIPATES LINGER MOISTURE
HANGS AROUND AT LEAST GIVING THE REGION A LOW END CHANCE OF RAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO REMAIN THE SAME WITH SOME INCREASE IN
TEMPS MONDAY THEN A GRADUAL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH THE TEMPERATURES
MIGHT BE COOLER THE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING 75 TO 80 DEGREES. UGGH.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS
OVER THE GULF WATERS AND THE LAGUNA WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE.
HOWEVER ...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CONVECTION
THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WHICH COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF OUTFLOWS CLOSE TO THE STORMS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE FOR SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AS A TROPICAL WAVE EMERGES OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A LONG FETCH OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
TO DEVELOP A LONG PERIOD SWELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF. SWELLS TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ARE MORE
DIFFICULT TO TACKLE IF THE WAVE REMAINS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND DOES
NOT STRENGTHEN. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MAY DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVE AXIS MAKES IT CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE WAVE MOVING INLAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  80  92  80 /  30  20  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          94  77  95  78 /  30  20  20  10
HARLINGEN            95  76  96  77 /  30  20  20  10
MCALLEN              97  78  98  79 /  30  20  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      98  80  99  79 /  30  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  79  89  80 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63






000
FXUS64 KBRO 302329
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
629 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...TSRA ON THE DECREASE JUST WEST OF MFE WITH POSSIBILITY
OF A SHOWER OR TWO MOVING INTO THAT TERMINAL THROUGH 02Z. MUCH
LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW SHRA/TSRA
INCREASE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AFT 07Z. HAVE VCSH AT BRO AND
HRL AFT 07Z LASTING INTO THE MORNING WITH TSRA POSSIBLE AFT 14Z.
VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IN
HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA WHERE MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL WANE IN THE COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDDLE VALLEY INCLUDING MFE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOWER HEIGHTS AND BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST...A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS IN THE MIDDLE OF BROAD HIGH OVER THE
PACIFIC AND ANOTHER HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS KEEPING THIS
UNSTABLE AREA WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER US FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CURRENTLY...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INITIATE AND
WITH COVERAGE  EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LATEST PWATS AND RH VALUES CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VALUES
AROUND 2.5 INCHES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS WILL
FAVOR ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL QUIET DOWN CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT
AND WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN BETWEEN THE MID TO LOW
70S. AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG THE
COAST FAVORING THE IMMEDIATE COAST SECTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 77. THIS WILL EXTEND WESTWARD
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL LOWER INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH A LOW 20
PERCENT AS THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS INVERTED
TROUGH WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 90S TODAY AND UPPER 90S INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH EVER
SO SLIGHTLY MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
ENTERS THE REGION TUE-THURSDAY.

MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO
ITS APPROACH OF THE YUCATAN SUNDAY BUT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CONTINUES WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL
TRENDS SEND A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS
EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE LAST FEW MODEL
RUNS. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AND DOES SHOW
ANY SIGNS OF TIGHTENING NEAR A COMMON CENTER THE LEADING EDGE OF
MOISTURE COULD ARRIVE EARLY. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIMITED
ORGANIZATION WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP THE SYSTEM A ROBUST
WAVE. NAM IS THE OUTLIER DEVELOPING A TIGHT CIRCULATION AND
TRACKING THE CENTER ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE.

FORECAST REMAINS IN TACT WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THEN
INCREASING TUESDAY PEAKING TUESDAY NIGHT, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS HOVERING BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.6
INCHES AND MEAN RH OF AROUND 80 PERCENT IN THE 1000-500MB LAYER
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR GOOD CHANCES OR LIKELY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING UPWARDS WITH THE
POPS DURING THE PEAK TIMES LISTED. GOING FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED WITH STILL SOME TIME TO BUMP POPS UP TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY AS THE WAVE EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

THEN AS THE WAVE MOVES WELL INLAND AND DISSIPATES LINGER MOISTURE
HANGS AROUND AT LEAST GIVING THE REGION A LOW END CHANCE OF RAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO REMAIN THE SAME WITH SOME INCREASE IN
TEMPS MONDAY THEN A GRADUAL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH THE TEMPERATURES
MIGHT BE COOLER THE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING 75 TO 80 DEGREES. UGGH.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS
OVER THE GULF WATERS AND THE LAGUNA WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE.
HOWEVER ...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CONVECTION
THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WHICH COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF OUTFLOWS CLOSE TO THE STORMS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE FOR SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AS A TROPICAL WAVE EMERGES OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A LONG FETCH OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
TO DEVELOP A LONG PERIOD SWELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF. SWELLS TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ARE MORE
DIFFICULT TO TACKLE IF THE WAVE REMAINS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND DOES
NOT STRENGTHEN. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MAY DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVE AXIS MAKES IT CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE WAVE MOVING INLAND.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55






000
FXUS64 KBRO 302329
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
629 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...TSRA ON THE DECREASE JUST WEST OF MFE WITH POSSIBILITY
OF A SHOWER OR TWO MOVING INTO THAT TERMINAL THROUGH 02Z. MUCH
LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW SHRA/TSRA
INCREASE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AFT 07Z. HAVE VCSH AT BRO AND
HRL AFT 07Z LASTING INTO THE MORNING WITH TSRA POSSIBLE AFT 14Z.
VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IN
HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA WHERE MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL WANE IN THE COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDDLE VALLEY INCLUDING MFE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOWER HEIGHTS AND BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST...A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS IN THE MIDDLE OF BROAD HIGH OVER THE
PACIFIC AND ANOTHER HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS KEEPING THIS
UNSTABLE AREA WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER US FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CURRENTLY...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INITIATE AND
WITH COVERAGE  EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LATEST PWATS AND RH VALUES CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VALUES
AROUND 2.5 INCHES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS WILL
FAVOR ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL QUIET DOWN CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT
AND WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN BETWEEN THE MID TO LOW
70S. AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG THE
COAST FAVORING THE IMMEDIATE COAST SECTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 77. THIS WILL EXTEND WESTWARD
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL LOWER INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH A LOW 20
PERCENT AS THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS INVERTED
TROUGH WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 90S TODAY AND UPPER 90S INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH EVER
SO SLIGHTLY MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
ENTERS THE REGION TUE-THURSDAY.

MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO
ITS APPROACH OF THE YUCATAN SUNDAY BUT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CONTINUES WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL
TRENDS SEND A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS
EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE LAST FEW MODEL
RUNS. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AND DOES SHOW
ANY SIGNS OF TIGHTENING NEAR A COMMON CENTER THE LEADING EDGE OF
MOISTURE COULD ARRIVE EARLY. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIMITED
ORGANIZATION WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP THE SYSTEM A ROBUST
WAVE. NAM IS THE OUTLIER DEVELOPING A TIGHT CIRCULATION AND
TRACKING THE CENTER ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE.

FORECAST REMAINS IN TACT WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THEN
INCREASING TUESDAY PEAKING TUESDAY NIGHT, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS HOVERING BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.6
INCHES AND MEAN RH OF AROUND 80 PERCENT IN THE 1000-500MB LAYER
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR GOOD CHANCES OR LIKELY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING UPWARDS WITH THE
POPS DURING THE PEAK TIMES LISTED. GOING FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED WITH STILL SOME TIME TO BUMP POPS UP TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY AS THE WAVE EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

THEN AS THE WAVE MOVES WELL INLAND AND DISSIPATES LINGER MOISTURE
HANGS AROUND AT LEAST GIVING THE REGION A LOW END CHANCE OF RAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO REMAIN THE SAME WITH SOME INCREASE IN
TEMPS MONDAY THEN A GRADUAL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH THE TEMPERATURES
MIGHT BE COOLER THE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING 75 TO 80 DEGREES. UGGH.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS
OVER THE GULF WATERS AND THE LAGUNA WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE.
HOWEVER ...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CONVECTION
THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WHICH COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF OUTFLOWS CLOSE TO THE STORMS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE FOR SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AS A TROPICAL WAVE EMERGES OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A LONG FETCH OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
TO DEVELOP A LONG PERIOD SWELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF. SWELLS TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ARE MORE
DIFFICULT TO TACKLE IF THE WAVE REMAINS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND DOES
NOT STRENGTHEN. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MAY DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVE AXIS MAKES IT CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE WAVE MOVING INLAND.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55







000
FXUS64 KBRO 302002
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
302 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOWER HEIGHTS AND BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST...A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS IN THE MIDDLE OF BROAD HIGH OVER THE
PACIFIC AND ANOTHER HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS KEEPING THIS
UNSTABLE AREA WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER US FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CURRENTLY...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INITIATE AND
WITH COVERAGE  EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LATEST PWATS AND RH VALUES CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VALUES
AROUND 2.5 INCHES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS WILL
FAVOR ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL QUIET DOWN CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT
AND WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN BETWEEN THE MID TO LOW
70S. AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG THE
COAST FAVORING THE IMMEDIATE COAST SECTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 77. THIS WILL EXTEND WESTWARD
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL LOWER INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH A LOW 20
PERCENT AS THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS INVERTED
TROUGH WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 90S TODAY AND UPPER 90S INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH EVER
SO SLIGHTLY MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
ENTERS THE REGION TUE-THURSDAY.

MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO
ITS APPROACH OF THE YUCATAN SUNDAY BUT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CONTINUES WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL
TRENDS SEND A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS
EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE LAST FEW MODEL
RUNS. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AND DOES SHOW
ANY SIGNS OF TIGHTENING NEAR A COMMON CENTER THE LEADING EDGE OF
MOISTURE COULD ARRIVE EARLY. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIMITED
ORGANIZATION WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP THE SYSTEM A ROBUST
WAVE. NAM IS THE OUTLIER DEVELOPING A TIGHT CIRCULATION AND
TRACKING THE CENTER ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE.

FORECAST REMAINS IN TACT WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THEN
INCREASING TUESDAY PEAKING TUESDAY NIGHT, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS HOVERING BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.6
INCHES AND MEAN RH OF AROUND 80 PERCENT IN THE 1000-500MB LAYER
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR GOOD CHANCES OR LIKELY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING UPWARDS WITH THE
POPS DURING THE PEAK TIMES LISTED. GOING FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED WITH STILL SOME TIME TO BUMP POPS UP TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY AS THE WAVE EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

THEN AS THE WAVE MOVES WELL INLAND AND DISSIPATES LINGER MOISTURE
HANGS AROUND AT LEAST GIVING THE REGION A LOW END CHANCE OF RAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO REMAIN THE SAME WITH SOME INCREASE IN
TEMPS MONDAY THEN A GRADUAL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH THE TEMPERATURES
MIGHT BE COOLER THE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING 75 TO 80 DEGREES. UGGH.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS
OVER THE GULF WATERS AND THE LAGUNA WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE.
HOWEVER ...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CONVECTION
THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WHICH COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF OUTFLOWS CLOSE TO THE STORMS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE FOR SUNDAY.


MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AS A TROPICAL WAVE EMERGES OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A LONG FETCH OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
TO DEVELOP A LONG PERIOD SWELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF. SWELLS TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ARE MORE
DIFFICULT TO TACKLE IF THE WAVE REMAINS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND DOES
NOT STRENGTHEN. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MAY DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVE AXIS MAKES IT CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE WAVE MOVING INLAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  90  80  92 /  40  30  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          77  94  77  95 /  40  30  20  20
HARLINGEN            76  95  76  96 /  40  30  20  20
MCALLEN              78  97  78  98 /  40  30  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      79  98  80  99 /  30  30  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  88  79  89 /  40  40  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KBRO 302002
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
302 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOWER HEIGHTS AND BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST...A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS IN THE MIDDLE OF BROAD HIGH OVER THE
PACIFIC AND ANOTHER HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS KEEPING THIS
UNSTABLE AREA WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER US FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CURRENTLY...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INITIATE AND
WITH COVERAGE  EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LATEST PWATS AND RH VALUES CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VALUES
AROUND 2.5 INCHES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS WILL
FAVOR ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL QUIET DOWN CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT
AND WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN BETWEEN THE MID TO LOW
70S. AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG THE
COAST FAVORING THE IMMEDIATE COAST SECTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 77. THIS WILL EXTEND WESTWARD
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL LOWER INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH A LOW 20
PERCENT AS THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS INVERTED
TROUGH WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 90S TODAY AND UPPER 90S INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH EVER
SO SLIGHTLY MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
ENTERS THE REGION TUE-THURSDAY.

MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO
ITS APPROACH OF THE YUCATAN SUNDAY BUT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CONTINUES WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL
TRENDS SEND A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS
EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE LAST FEW MODEL
RUNS. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AND DOES SHOW
ANY SIGNS OF TIGHTENING NEAR A COMMON CENTER THE LEADING EDGE OF
MOISTURE COULD ARRIVE EARLY. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIMITED
ORGANIZATION WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP THE SYSTEM A ROBUST
WAVE. NAM IS THE OUTLIER DEVELOPING A TIGHT CIRCULATION AND
TRACKING THE CENTER ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE.

FORECAST REMAINS IN TACT WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THEN
INCREASING TUESDAY PEAKING TUESDAY NIGHT, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS HOVERING BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.6
INCHES AND MEAN RH OF AROUND 80 PERCENT IN THE 1000-500MB LAYER
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR GOOD CHANCES OR LIKELY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING UPWARDS WITH THE
POPS DURING THE PEAK TIMES LISTED. GOING FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED WITH STILL SOME TIME TO BUMP POPS UP TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY AS THE WAVE EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

THEN AS THE WAVE MOVES WELL INLAND AND DISSIPATES LINGER MOISTURE
HANGS AROUND AT LEAST GIVING THE REGION A LOW END CHANCE OF RAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO REMAIN THE SAME WITH SOME INCREASE IN
TEMPS MONDAY THEN A GRADUAL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH THE TEMPERATURES
MIGHT BE COOLER THE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING 75 TO 80 DEGREES. UGGH.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS
OVER THE GULF WATERS AND THE LAGUNA WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE.
HOWEVER ...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CONVECTION
THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WHICH COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF OUTFLOWS CLOSE TO THE STORMS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE FOR SUNDAY.


MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AS A TROPICAL WAVE EMERGES OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A LONG FETCH OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
TO DEVELOP A LONG PERIOD SWELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF. SWELLS TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ARE MORE
DIFFICULT TO TACKLE IF THE WAVE REMAINS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND DOES
NOT STRENGTHEN. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MAY DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVE AXIS MAKES IT CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE WAVE MOVING INLAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  90  80  92 /  40  30  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          77  94  77  95 /  40  30  20  20
HARLINGEN            76  95  76  96 /  40  30  20  20
MCALLEN              78  97  78  98 /  40  30  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      79  98  80  99 /  30  30  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  88  79  89 /  40  40  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KBRO 301753
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1253 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED INLAND AND THE MOST ACTIVE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF
MX. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH A FEW GUSTY WINDS DUE TO CONVECTION NEAR THE THREE
TERMINALS. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD CAUSE
LOW VISIBILITY AT THE TERMINALS AND MVFR CIGS. NEXT ROUND SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER 20Z ACROSS THE THREE SITES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO
GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED TO MENTIONED THE CONVECTION. TONIGHT
VCSH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS ONSHORE TROPICAL MOISTURE KEEP A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL REDUCE
CIGS TO MVFR A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 500 MB INVERTED TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CONV THREAT
ACROSS THE LOWER RGV THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE MORNING CONV AREAS CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY NORTH MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. WILL GO WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE MORNING CONV PERIODICALLY
REDUCING CEILINGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE
FIRST HALF OF THE CURRENT TAF SET. THE ATMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
STABILIZED LATER TODAY AS OUTFLOW FROM THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
CONV DIMINISHES THE INSTABILITY SOMEHWAT. SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
TEMPO GROUPS OF CONV IN THE LATER TAF PERIODS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE ATMS OVER THE AREA REMAIN
PRETTY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS PRETTY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE WITH A PWAT AROUND 2.4 INCHES AND A CAPE AROUND 2930
J/KG. THIS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE 500 MB
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE AREA TO INITIATE CONV THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. KBRO RADAR HAS SHOW A STEADY INCREASE
IN THE CONV COVERAGE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INVERTED 500
MB TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL THEN
START TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATE SUNDAY. THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE
LEVELS ALSO START TO DIMINISH SOME LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LITTLE LESS CONV COVERAGE TOMORROW.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN POPS FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND THEN START TO DIVERGE ON SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
GFS GUIDANCE DRYING OUT THE MOISTURE LEVELS QUICKER THAN THE NAM
GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINS HIGHER POPS ON INTO SUNDAY. WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODEL POPS ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY AS AM A
LITTLE LEARY OF DROPPING THE POPS TOO QUICKLY IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.

FOR TEMPS...THE NAM GUIDANCE IS THE COOLEST OF THE MODEL SETS SINCE
IT HOLDS ONTO THE HIGHER POPS THE LONGEST WITH THE MAV AND ECMWF
SHOWING CLOSER AGREEMENT. WILL LEAN CLOSER TO A MAV/ECMWF BLEND
SINCE THE MET TEMPS LOOK TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT.

CONCERNING FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA. SO FAR THIS MORNING THE
CONV HAS BE SCATTERED OUT ENOUGH AND FAIRLY QUICK MOVING TO KEEP
RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR FAIRLY LOW. SO WILL NOT POST ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR TODAY. ANY FLOODING THAT MAY OCCUR WILL LIKELY
BE THE MINOR NUISANCE TYPE WHICH CAN BE COVERED BY FLS`S.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT DECREASES AND
THE 500MB RIDGE ELONGATES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF COASTAL MORNING ACTIVITY AND SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION MONDAY DUE TO THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST CMC/ECMWF/GFS AND NAM ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT AND INDICATE THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE TROPICAL WAVE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TOWARDS VERACRUZ MEXICO.
RAIN CHANCES BECOME PROBLEMATIC BY MID WEEK...IF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE COULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. KEPT MOST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST POPS INTACT AS MODELS KEEP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEING TO
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COURTESY OF THE INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...CURRENTLY SURFACE OBS AND BUOY DATA
SHOWS A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUING OVER
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH OFFSHORE SEAS
HOLDING AROUND 3 FEET. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS THE PGF REMAINS
FAIRLY WEAK. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BAY AND GULF CONDITIONS WELL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF INTERACTS WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY BY LATE TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59








000
FXUS64 KBRO 301753
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1253 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED INLAND AND THE MOST ACTIVE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF
MX. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH A FEW GUSTY WINDS DUE TO CONVECTION NEAR THE THREE
TERMINALS. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD CAUSE
LOW VISIBILITY AT THE TERMINALS AND MVFR CIGS. NEXT ROUND SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER 20Z ACROSS THE THREE SITES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO
GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED TO MENTIONED THE CONVECTION. TONIGHT
VCSH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS ONSHORE TROPICAL MOISTURE KEEP A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL REDUCE
CIGS TO MVFR A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 500 MB INVERTED TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CONV THREAT
ACROSS THE LOWER RGV THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE MORNING CONV AREAS CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY NORTH MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. WILL GO WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE MORNING CONV PERIODICALLY
REDUCING CEILINGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE
FIRST HALF OF THE CURRENT TAF SET. THE ATMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
STABILIZED LATER TODAY AS OUTFLOW FROM THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
CONV DIMINISHES THE INSTABILITY SOMEHWAT. SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
TEMPO GROUPS OF CONV IN THE LATER TAF PERIODS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE ATMS OVER THE AREA REMAIN
PRETTY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS PRETTY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE WITH A PWAT AROUND 2.4 INCHES AND A CAPE AROUND 2930
J/KG. THIS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE 500 MB
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE AREA TO INITIATE CONV THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. KBRO RADAR HAS SHOW A STEADY INCREASE
IN THE CONV COVERAGE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INVERTED 500
MB TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL THEN
START TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATE SUNDAY. THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE
LEVELS ALSO START TO DIMINISH SOME LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LITTLE LESS CONV COVERAGE TOMORROW.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN POPS FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND THEN START TO DIVERGE ON SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
GFS GUIDANCE DRYING OUT THE MOISTURE LEVELS QUICKER THAN THE NAM
GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINS HIGHER POPS ON INTO SUNDAY. WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODEL POPS ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY AS AM A
LITTLE LEARY OF DROPPING THE POPS TOO QUICKLY IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.

FOR TEMPS...THE NAM GUIDANCE IS THE COOLEST OF THE MODEL SETS SINCE
IT HOLDS ONTO THE HIGHER POPS THE LONGEST WITH THE MAV AND ECMWF
SHOWING CLOSER AGREEMENT. WILL LEAN CLOSER TO A MAV/ECMWF BLEND
SINCE THE MET TEMPS LOOK TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT.

CONCERNING FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA. SO FAR THIS MORNING THE
CONV HAS BE SCATTERED OUT ENOUGH AND FAIRLY QUICK MOVING TO KEEP
RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR FAIRLY LOW. SO WILL NOT POST ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR TODAY. ANY FLOODING THAT MAY OCCUR WILL LIKELY
BE THE MINOR NUISANCE TYPE WHICH CAN BE COVERED BY FLS`S.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT DECREASES AND
THE 500MB RIDGE ELONGATES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF COASTAL MORNING ACTIVITY AND SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION MONDAY DUE TO THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST CMC/ECMWF/GFS AND NAM ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT AND INDICATE THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE TROPICAL WAVE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TOWARDS VERACRUZ MEXICO.
RAIN CHANCES BECOME PROBLEMATIC BY MID WEEK...IF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE COULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. KEPT MOST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST POPS INTACT AS MODELS KEEP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEING TO
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COURTESY OF THE INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...CURRENTLY SURFACE OBS AND BUOY DATA
SHOWS A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUING OVER
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH OFFSHORE SEAS
HOLDING AROUND 3 FEET. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS THE PGF REMAINS
FAIRLY WEAK. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BAY AND GULF CONDITIONS WELL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF INTERACTS WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY BY LATE TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59







000
FXUS64 KBRO 301219 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
719 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 500 MB INVERTED TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CONV THREAT
ACROSS THE LOWER RGV THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE MORNING CONV AREAS CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY NORTH MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. WILL GO WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE MORNING CONV PERIODICALLY
REDUCING CEILINGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE
FIRST HALF OF THE CURRENT TAF SET. THE ATMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
STABILIZED LATER TODAY AS OUTFLOW FROM THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
CONV DIMINISHES THE INSTABILITY SOMEHWAT. SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
TEMPO GROUPS OF CONV IN THE LATER TAF PERIODS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE ATMS OVER THE AREA REMAIN
PRETTY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS PRETTY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE WITH A PWAT AROUND 2.4 INCHES AND A CAPE AROUND 2930
J/KG. THIS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE 500 MB
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE AREA TO INITIATE CONV THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. KBRO RADAR HAS SHOW A STEADY INCREASE
IN THE CONV COVERAGE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INVERTED 500
MB TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL THEN
START TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATE SUNDAY. THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE
LEVELS ALSO START TO DIMINISH SOME LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LITTLE LESS CONV COVERAGE TOMORROW.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN POPS FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND THEN START TO DIVERGE ON SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
GFS GUIDANCE DRYING OUT THE MOISTURE LEVELS QUICKER THAN THE NAM
GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINS HIGHER POPS ON INTO SUNDAY. WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODEL POPS ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY AS AM A
LITTLE LEARY OF DROPPING THE POPS TOO QUICKLY IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.

FOR TEMPS...THE NAM GUIDANCE IS THE COOLEST OF THE MODEL SETS SINCE
IT HOLDS ONTO THE HIGHER POPS THE LONGEST WITH THE MAV AND ECMWF
SHOWING CLOSER AGREEMENT. WILL LEAN CLOSER TO A MAV/ECMWF BLEND
SINCE THE MET TEMPS LOOK TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT.

CONCERNING FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA. SO FAR THIS MORNING THE
CONV HAS BE SCATTERED OUT ENOUGH AND FAIRLY QUICK MOVING TO KEEP
RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR FAIRLY LOW. SO WILL NOT POST ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR TODAY. ANY FLOODING THAT MAY OCCUR WILL LIKELY
BE THE MINOR NUISANCE TYPE WHICH CAN BE COVERED BY FLS`S.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT DECREASES AND
THE 500MB RIDGE ELONGATES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF COASTAL MORNING ACTIVITY AND SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION MONDAY DUE TO THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST CMC/ECMWF/GFS AND NAM ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT AND INDICATE THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE TROPICAL WAVE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TOWARDS VERACRUZ MEXICO.
RAIN CHANCES BECOME PROBLEMATIC BY MID WEEK...IF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE COULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. KEPT MOST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST POPS INTACT AS MODELS KEEP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEING TO
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COURTESY OF THE INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...CURRENTLY SURFACE OBS AND BUOY DATA
SHOWS A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUING OVER
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH OFFSHORE SEAS
HOLDING AROUND 3 FEET. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS THE PGF REMAINS
FAIRLY WEAK. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BAY AND GULF CONDITIONS WELL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF INTERACTS WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY BY LATE TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  80  90  81 /  60  30  30  10
BROWNSVILLE          91  78  93  78 /  60  30  30  10
HARLINGEN            92  77  94  77 /  60  30  30  10
MCALLEN              94  78  96  78 /  60  30  30  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      95  79  98  79 /  30  20  30  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  80  88  80 /  60  30  40  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...58







000
FXUS64 KBRO 301219 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
719 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 500 MB INVERTED TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CONV THREAT
ACROSS THE LOWER RGV THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE MORNING CONV AREAS CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY NORTH MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. WILL GO WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE MORNING CONV PERIODICALLY
REDUCING CEILINGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE
FIRST HALF OF THE CURRENT TAF SET. THE ATMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
STABILIZED LATER TODAY AS OUTFLOW FROM THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
CONV DIMINISHES THE INSTABILITY SOMEHWAT. SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
TEMPO GROUPS OF CONV IN THE LATER TAF PERIODS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE ATMS OVER THE AREA REMAIN
PRETTY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS PRETTY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE WITH A PWAT AROUND 2.4 INCHES AND A CAPE AROUND 2930
J/KG. THIS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE 500 MB
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE AREA TO INITIATE CONV THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. KBRO RADAR HAS SHOW A STEADY INCREASE
IN THE CONV COVERAGE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INVERTED 500
MB TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL THEN
START TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATE SUNDAY. THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE
LEVELS ALSO START TO DIMINISH SOME LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LITTLE LESS CONV COVERAGE TOMORROW.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN POPS FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND THEN START TO DIVERGE ON SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
GFS GUIDANCE DRYING OUT THE MOISTURE LEVELS QUICKER THAN THE NAM
GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINS HIGHER POPS ON INTO SUNDAY. WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODEL POPS ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY AS AM A
LITTLE LEARY OF DROPPING THE POPS TOO QUICKLY IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.

FOR TEMPS...THE NAM GUIDANCE IS THE COOLEST OF THE MODEL SETS SINCE
IT HOLDS ONTO THE HIGHER POPS THE LONGEST WITH THE MAV AND ECMWF
SHOWING CLOSER AGREEMENT. WILL LEAN CLOSER TO A MAV/ECMWF BLEND
SINCE THE MET TEMPS LOOK TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT.

CONCERNING FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA. SO FAR THIS MORNING THE
CONV HAS BE SCATTERED OUT ENOUGH AND FAIRLY QUICK MOVING TO KEEP
RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR FAIRLY LOW. SO WILL NOT POST ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR TODAY. ANY FLOODING THAT MAY OCCUR WILL LIKELY
BE THE MINOR NUISANCE TYPE WHICH CAN BE COVERED BY FLS`S.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT DECREASES AND
THE 500MB RIDGE ELONGATES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF COASTAL MORNING ACTIVITY AND SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION MONDAY DUE TO THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST CMC/ECMWF/GFS AND NAM ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT AND INDICATE THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE TROPICAL WAVE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TOWARDS VERACRUZ MEXICO.
RAIN CHANCES BECOME PROBLEMATIC BY MID WEEK...IF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE COULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. KEPT MOST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST POPS INTACT AS MODELS KEEP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEING TO
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COURTESY OF THE INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...CURRENTLY SURFACE OBS AND BUOY DATA
SHOWS A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUING OVER
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH OFFSHORE SEAS
HOLDING AROUND 3 FEET. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS THE PGF REMAINS
FAIRLY WEAK. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BAY AND GULF CONDITIONS WELL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF INTERACTS WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY BY LATE TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  80  90  81 /  60  30  30  10
BROWNSVILLE          91  78  93  78 /  60  30  30  10
HARLINGEN            92  77  94  77 /  60  30  30  10
MCALLEN              94  78  96  78 /  60  30  30  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      95  79  98  79 /  30  20  30  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  80  88  80 /  60  30  40  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...58






000
FXUS64 KBRO 300928
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
428 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE ATMS OVER THE AREA REMAIN
PRETTY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS PRETTY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE WITH A PWAT AROUND 2.4 INCHES AND A CAPE AROUND 2930
J/KG. THIS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE 500 MB
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE AREA TO INITIATE CONV THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. KBRO RADAR HAS SHOW A STEADY INCREASE
IN THE CONV COVERAGE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INVERTED 500
MB TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL THEN
START TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATE SUNDAY. THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE
LEVELS ALSO START TO DIMINISH SOME LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LITTLE LESS CONV COVERAGE TOMORROW.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN POPS FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND THEN START TO DIVERGE ON SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
GFS GUIDANCE DRYING OUT THE MOISTURE LEVELS QUICKER THAN THE NAM
GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINS HIGHER POPS ON INTO SUNDAY. WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODEL POPS ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY AS AM A
LITTLE LEARY OF DROPPING THE POPS TOO QUICKLY IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.

FOR TEMPS...THE NAM GUIDANCE IS THE COOLEST OF THE MODEL SETS SINCE
IT HOLDS ONTO THE HIGHER POPS THE LONGEST WITH THE MAV AND ECMWF
SHOWING CLOSER AGREEMENT. WILL LEAN CLOSER TO A MAV/ECMWF BLEND
SINCE THE MET TEMPS LOOK TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT.

CONCERNING FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA. SO FAR THIS MORNING THE
CONV HAS BE SCATTERED OUT ENOUGH AND FAIRLY QUICK MOVING TO KEEP
RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR FAIRLY LOW. SO WILL NOT POST ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR TODAY. ANY FLOODING THAT MAY OCCUR WILL LIKELY
BE THE MINOR NUISANCE TYPE WHICH CAN BE COVERED BY FLS`S.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT DECREASES AND
THE 500MB RIDGE ELONGATES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF COASTAL MORNING ACTIVITY AND SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION MONDAY DUE TO THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST CMC/ECMWF/GFS AND NAM ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT AND INDICATE THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE TROPICAL WAVE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TOWARDS VERACRUZ MEXICO.
RAIN CHANCES BECOME PROBLEMATIC BY MID WEEK...IF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE COULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. KEPT MOST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST POPS INTACT AS MODELS KEEP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEING TO
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COURTESY OF THE INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...CURRENTLY SURFACE OBS AND BUOY DATA
SHOWS A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUING OVER
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH OFFSHORE SEAS
HOLDING AROUND 3 FEET. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS THE PGF REMAINS
FAIRLY WEAK. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BAY AND GULF CONDITIONS WELL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF INTERACTS WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY BY LATE TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  80  90  81 /  60  30  30  10
BROWNSVILLE          91  78  93  78 /  60  30  30  10
HARLINGEN            92  77  94  77 /  60  30  30  10
MCALLEN              94  78  96  78 /  60  30  30  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      95  79  98  79 /  30  20  30  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  80  88  80 /  60  30  40  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60...SHORT TERM
63...LONG TERM
58...GRAPHICS/PSU






000
FXUS64 KBRO 300928
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
428 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE ATMS OVER THE AREA REMAIN
PRETTY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS PRETTY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE WITH A PWAT AROUND 2.4 INCHES AND A CAPE AROUND 2930
J/KG. THIS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE 500 MB
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE AREA TO INITIATE CONV THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. KBRO RADAR HAS SHOW A STEADY INCREASE
IN THE CONV COVERAGE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INVERTED 500
MB TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL THEN
START TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATE SUNDAY. THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE
LEVELS ALSO START TO DIMINISH SOME LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LITTLE LESS CONV COVERAGE TOMORROW.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN POPS FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND THEN START TO DIVERGE ON SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
GFS GUIDANCE DRYING OUT THE MOISTURE LEVELS QUICKER THAN THE NAM
GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINS HIGHER POPS ON INTO SUNDAY. WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODEL POPS ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY AS AM A
LITTLE LEARY OF DROPPING THE POPS TOO QUICKLY IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.

FOR TEMPS...THE NAM GUIDANCE IS THE COOLEST OF THE MODEL SETS SINCE
IT HOLDS ONTO THE HIGHER POPS THE LONGEST WITH THE MAV AND ECMWF
SHOWING CLOSER AGREEMENT. WILL LEAN CLOSER TO A MAV/ECMWF BLEND
SINCE THE MET TEMPS LOOK TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT.

CONCERNING FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA. SO FAR THIS MORNING THE
CONV HAS BE SCATTERED OUT ENOUGH AND FAIRLY QUICK MOVING TO KEEP
RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR FAIRLY LOW. SO WILL NOT POST ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR TODAY. ANY FLOODING THAT MAY OCCUR WILL LIKELY
BE THE MINOR NUISANCE TYPE WHICH CAN BE COVERED BY FLS`S.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT DECREASES AND
THE 500MB RIDGE ELONGATES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF COASTAL MORNING ACTIVITY AND SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION MONDAY DUE TO THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST CMC/ECMWF/GFS AND NAM ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT AND INDICATE THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE TROPICAL WAVE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TOWARDS VERACRUZ MEXICO.
RAIN CHANCES BECOME PROBLEMATIC BY MID WEEK...IF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE COULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. KEPT MOST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST POPS INTACT AS MODELS KEEP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEING TO
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COURTESY OF THE INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...CURRENTLY SURFACE OBS AND BUOY DATA
SHOWS A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUING OVER
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH OFFSHORE SEAS
HOLDING AROUND 3 FEET. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS THE PGF REMAINS
FAIRLY WEAK. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BAY AND GULF CONDITIONS WELL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF INTERACTS WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY BY LATE TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  80  90  81 /  60  30  30  10
BROWNSVILLE          91  78  93  78 /  60  30  30  10
HARLINGEN            92  77  94  77 /  60  30  30  10
MCALLEN              94  78  96  78 /  60  30  30  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      95  79  98  79 /  30  20  30  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  80  88  80 /  60  30  40  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60...SHORT TERM
63...LONG TERM
58...GRAPHICS/PSU





000
FXUS64 KBRO 300727 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
227 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 500 MB INVERTED TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CONV THREAT
ACROSS THE LOWER RGV THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RECENT
IMAGERY FROM KBRO RADAR SHOWS SEVERAL SMALL CONV CELLS ALREADY
FIRING UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CAMERON AND HIDALGO COUNTIES. THESE
CONV AREAS ARE STEADY MOVING GENERALLY NORTH TOWARDS THE RGV
AIRPORTS WHICH MAY REDUCE CEILINGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS TOWARDS SUNRISE. THE ATMS REMAINS PRETTY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WITH A PWAT AROUND 2.4 INCHES AND A CAPE AROUND 2930
J/KG. CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND VFR LEVELS ON
AFTER SUNRISE WITH OCCASSIONAL REDUCTIONS OF CEILINGS AND VSBYS
WITH THE PASSING CONV. THE ATMS SHOULD BECOME MORE STABILIZED
LATER TODAY AS OUTFLOW FROM THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONV
DIMINISHES THE INSTABILITY SOMEHWAT. SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION
OF CONV LATER IN THE CURRENT TAF PERIODS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A COMPLEX OF SHRA AND TSRA MOVING ESE CURRENTLY
THROUGH C/E HIDALGO COUNTY TOWARD CAMERON COUNTY. XPECT IMPACTS TO
HRL FROM 0000-0100Z AND AT BRO 0030-0300Z. XPECT TSRA WITH FRQ LTG
AND HEAVY RAIN. WINDS GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. AFTER
THIS COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH...A LULL IN ACTIVITY XPECTED THROUGH
REST OF THE EVENING BUT REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFT 09Z ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND HRL/BRO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE BY MID MORNING BUT DIURNAL TSRA EXPECTED IN THE MID/UPPER
VALLEY AND INCLUDING MFE SATURDAY MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE NE/EAST OF PORT
MANSFIELD. DUE TO THE EARLIER CONVECTION MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
DIMINISHED FOR A FEW HOURS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
INITIATE ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS AND EAST OF HWY 77. 12Z KBRO
SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIPITABLE  VALUES OF 2.5 INCHES IN THE
AREA AND 1000 TO 500 MB RH AROUND 70 TO 80 PERCENT. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS
ONLY WARMING INTO THE MID TO LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
HIGHER END TOWARDS THE WESTERN ZONES DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...GFS/NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
LOW/MCV DEVELOPING INTO A MORE INVERTED TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVING
WESTWARD TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE VALUES STILL
MAINTAIN HIGH VALUES ABOVE 2.4 INCHES INITIATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION AFTER MID NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE AREA
AND SHEAR ALL THE DEEP MOISTURE NORTHEAST SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TOWARDS THE WESTERN COUNTIES MORE NW TO W LIMITING THE CONVECTION
FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. LEAN TOWARDS HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
FOR EASTERN HIDALGO AND ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 77 AND THE COASTAL
WATERS. WITH THE ABUNDANCE IN MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ATMS...
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE SLOWLY AND DEVELOP HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
STRONGEST DOWNPOURS. THIS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY FAVORING
THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH BETTER POTENTIAL OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
VALLEY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE CWA WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE AREA. INCREASE THE POPS EARLY SUN
MORNING AS THE WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA FAVORING THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND OVERNIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

LONG TERM/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
LOW TO MODERATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS WE ENTER INTO SEPTEMBER
OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL BEST MONTH FOR RAIN.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND UPTICK IN MODEL
POP GUIDANCE RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP A BIT FOR SUNDAY.
LOOKING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGHER AVAILABLE MOISTURE
MOVES WESTWARD.

IF ANY DAY IN THE NEXT 5-7 DAY HAS A LOW POINT IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN
THIS WOULD BE MONDAY. MOISTURE CONTENT LOWERS EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND
THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AS AN UPPER RIDGE ELONGATES OVER TEXAS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW RESULTS TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY GOING.

THE MUCH ADVERTISED TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CARIBBEAN
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. NHC CONTINUES TO MONITOR
ITS MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL DEVELOP. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS REMAINS PERSISTENT
ON ITS EVOLUTION AND THE NAM IS SHOWING IN BIAS OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. OTHER GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL
WAVE. ALL MODELS DO SURGE MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND SOUTH
TEXAS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WITH PLENTY OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
HANGING ON THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO
INCREASE POP VALUES AS DOES THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHEN THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. WITH
THE INCREASE POPS COMES MORE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOLKS SHOULD CONTINUE WATCH THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND FOR ANY
CHANGES IN THE TROPICAL OUTLOOK. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SLIGHT POTENTIAL AND TROPICAL SYSTEMS CAN AND DO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY IF THE RIGHT CONDITIONS EXIST.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE GULF IS KEEPING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH SOME
ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME..THE WEAK LOW SEEN ON THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY IS LOCATED EAST OF PORT MANSFIELD AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. THIS SHOULD QUIET DOWN EARLY IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF ALONG THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY
SATURDAY.

/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT SEA. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
STILL FORECAST TO STRAIGHTEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE
EXPECTED TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SUNDAY/MONDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE A SWELL TRAIN THAT WILL BE DIRECTED
TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. SOME SWELL COULD EXCEED 7 FEET AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  80  92  81 /  60  30  30  10
BROWNSVILLE          92  78  94  78 /  60  30  30  10
HARLINGEN            92  76  94  77 /  60  30  30  10
MCALLEN              95  78  97  78 /  60  20  30  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      95  79  98  79 /  30  20  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  80  89  80 /  60  30  40  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63






000
FXUS64 KBRO 300727 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
227 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 500 MB INVERTED TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CONV THREAT
ACROSS THE LOWER RGV THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RECENT
IMAGERY FROM KBRO RADAR SHOWS SEVERAL SMALL CONV CELLS ALREADY
FIRING UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CAMERON AND HIDALGO COUNTIES. THESE
CONV AREAS ARE STEADY MOVING GENERALLY NORTH TOWARDS THE RGV
AIRPORTS WHICH MAY REDUCE CEILINGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS TOWARDS SUNRISE. THE ATMS REMAINS PRETTY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WITH A PWAT AROUND 2.4 INCHES AND A CAPE AROUND 2930
J/KG. CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND VFR LEVELS ON
AFTER SUNRISE WITH OCCASSIONAL REDUCTIONS OF CEILINGS AND VSBYS
WITH THE PASSING CONV. THE ATMS SHOULD BECOME MORE STABILIZED
LATER TODAY AS OUTFLOW FROM THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONV
DIMINISHES THE INSTABILITY SOMEHWAT. SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION
OF CONV LATER IN THE CURRENT TAF PERIODS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A COMPLEX OF SHRA AND TSRA MOVING ESE CURRENTLY
THROUGH C/E HIDALGO COUNTY TOWARD CAMERON COUNTY. XPECT IMPACTS TO
HRL FROM 0000-0100Z AND AT BRO 0030-0300Z. XPECT TSRA WITH FRQ LTG
AND HEAVY RAIN. WINDS GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. AFTER
THIS COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH...A LULL IN ACTIVITY XPECTED THROUGH
REST OF THE EVENING BUT REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFT 09Z ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND HRL/BRO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE BY MID MORNING BUT DIURNAL TSRA EXPECTED IN THE MID/UPPER
VALLEY AND INCLUDING MFE SATURDAY MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE NE/EAST OF PORT
MANSFIELD. DUE TO THE EARLIER CONVECTION MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
DIMINISHED FOR A FEW HOURS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
INITIATE ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS AND EAST OF HWY 77. 12Z KBRO
SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIPITABLE  VALUES OF 2.5 INCHES IN THE
AREA AND 1000 TO 500 MB RH AROUND 70 TO 80 PERCENT. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS
ONLY WARMING INTO THE MID TO LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
HIGHER END TOWARDS THE WESTERN ZONES DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...GFS/NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
LOW/MCV DEVELOPING INTO A MORE INVERTED TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVING
WESTWARD TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE VALUES STILL
MAINTAIN HIGH VALUES ABOVE 2.4 INCHES INITIATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION AFTER MID NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE AREA
AND SHEAR ALL THE DEEP MOISTURE NORTHEAST SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TOWARDS THE WESTERN COUNTIES MORE NW TO W LIMITING THE CONVECTION
FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. LEAN TOWARDS HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
FOR EASTERN HIDALGO AND ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 77 AND THE COASTAL
WATERS. WITH THE ABUNDANCE IN MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ATMS...
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE SLOWLY AND DEVELOP HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
STRONGEST DOWNPOURS. THIS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY FAVORING
THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH BETTER POTENTIAL OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
VALLEY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE CWA WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE AREA. INCREASE THE POPS EARLY SUN
MORNING AS THE WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA FAVORING THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND OVERNIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

LONG TERM/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
LOW TO MODERATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS WE ENTER INTO SEPTEMBER
OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL BEST MONTH FOR RAIN.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND UPTICK IN MODEL
POP GUIDANCE RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP A BIT FOR SUNDAY.
LOOKING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGHER AVAILABLE MOISTURE
MOVES WESTWARD.

IF ANY DAY IN THE NEXT 5-7 DAY HAS A LOW POINT IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN
THIS WOULD BE MONDAY. MOISTURE CONTENT LOWERS EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND
THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AS AN UPPER RIDGE ELONGATES OVER TEXAS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW RESULTS TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY GOING.

THE MUCH ADVERTISED TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CARIBBEAN
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. NHC CONTINUES TO MONITOR
ITS MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL DEVELOP. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS REMAINS PERSISTENT
ON ITS EVOLUTION AND THE NAM IS SHOWING IN BIAS OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. OTHER GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL
WAVE. ALL MODELS DO SURGE MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND SOUTH
TEXAS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WITH PLENTY OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
HANGING ON THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO
INCREASE POP VALUES AS DOES THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHEN THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. WITH
THE INCREASE POPS COMES MORE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOLKS SHOULD CONTINUE WATCH THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND FOR ANY
CHANGES IN THE TROPICAL OUTLOOK. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SLIGHT POTENTIAL AND TROPICAL SYSTEMS CAN AND DO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY IF THE RIGHT CONDITIONS EXIST.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE GULF IS KEEPING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH SOME
ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME..THE WEAK LOW SEEN ON THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY IS LOCATED EAST OF PORT MANSFIELD AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. THIS SHOULD QUIET DOWN EARLY IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF ALONG THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY
SATURDAY.

/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT SEA. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
STILL FORECAST TO STRAIGHTEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE
EXPECTED TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SUNDAY/MONDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE A SWELL TRAIN THAT WILL BE DIRECTED
TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. SOME SWELL COULD EXCEED 7 FEET AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  80  92  81 /  60  30  30  10
BROWNSVILLE          92  78  94  78 /  60  30  30  10
HARLINGEN            92  76  94  77 /  60  30  30  10
MCALLEN              95  78  97  78 /  60  20  30  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      95  79  98  79 /  30  20  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  80  89  80 /  60  30  40  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63







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