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000
FXUS64 KBRO 300957
AFDBRO
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
457 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP TODAY...WITH VFR
CEILINGS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AROUND THE AREA TODAY...BUT WILL
NOT INCLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO SPOTTY
COVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WILL
TURN INTO A SEASONAL WEATHER DAY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RGV. LOW CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL EDGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS...FIRING OFF TSTMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT MORE SO OVER
WEST TEXAS. A SQUALL LINE IS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING...AND A REMNANT BOUNDARY COULD REACH THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS BY AROUND NOON. THE FRONT ITSELF MAY LOSE DEFINITION
OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY TONIGHT...BUT ITS PRESENCE WILL BE MADE KNOWN
VIA ONGOING CONVECTION WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ADDITIONAL
TSTMS MAY ACTIVATE OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT
INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF ON THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS CONVECTION WILL
MAINLY DIE OUT BEFORE HAVING ANY BIG IMPACT ON THE CWA BUT A FEW
TSTMS COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

MORE INFLUENCE SUNDAY FROM THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST AS MOISTURE POOLS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THOUGH THE FORECAST
SOUNDING SHOWS PWAT STAYING AROUND 1.5 INCHES. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY SUNDAY NONETHELESS...DESTABILIZED
BY THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
CWA ON MONDAY HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT...DOWN INTO
THE MID 80S... WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPPER TROF WILL BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AS RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT
THAN 12 HOURS AGO WITH BOTH MODELS NOW DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THEN PROGRESSING IT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD GEORGIA BY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID LEVEL DRY AIR
BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND EXPANDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
WITH PWATS LOWER AND AN INCREASE IN DRY AIR...MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LOWER ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THEREFORE...HARD TO
ARGUE ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
EXTENDED. FAVORED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY LOCATIONS /EAST OF I 69C TO
THE COAST/ WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE LOCATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WILL RESULT IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOCALLY...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55/58






000
FXUS64 KBRO 300957 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
457 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP TODAY...WITH VFR
CEILINGS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AROUND THE AREA TODAY...BUT WILL
NOT INCLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO SPOTTY
COVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WILL
TURN INTO A SEASONAL WEATHER DAY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RGV. LOW CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL EDGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS...FIRING OFF TSTMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT MORE SO OVER
WEST TEXAS. A SQUALL LINE IS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING...AND A REMNANT BOUNDARY COULD REACH THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS BY AROUND NOON. THE FRONT ITSELF MAY LOSE DEFINITION
OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY TONIGHT...BUT ITS PRESENCE WILL BE MADE KNOWN
VIA ONGOING CONVECTION WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ADDITIONAL
TSTMS MAY ACTIVATE OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT
INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF ON THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS CONVECTION WILL
MAINLY DIE OUT BEFORE HAVING ANY BIG IMPACT ON THE CWA BUT A FEW
TSTMS COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

MORE INFLUENCE SUNDAY FROM THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST AS MOISTURE POOLS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THOUGH THE FORECAST
SOUNDING SHOWS PWAT STAYING AROUND 1.5 INCHES. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY SUNDAY NONETHELESS...DESTABILIZED
BY THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
CWA ON MONDAY HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT...DOWN INTO
THE MID 80S... WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPPER TROF WILL BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AS RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT
THAN 12 HOURS AGO WITH BOTH MODELS NOW DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THEN PROGRESSING IT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD GEORGIA BY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID LEVEL DRY AIR
BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND EXPANDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
WITH PWATS LOWER AND AN INCREASE IN DRY AIR...MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LOWER ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THEREFORE...HARD TO
ARGUE ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
EXTENDED. FAVORED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY LOCATIONS /EAST OF I 69C TO
THE COAST/ WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE LOCATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WILL RESULT IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOCALLY...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55/58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 300957 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
457 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP TODAY...WITH VFR
CEILINGS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AROUND THE AREA TODAY...BUT WILL
NOT INCLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO SPOTTY
COVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WILL
TURN INTO A SEASONAL WEATHER DAY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RGV. LOW CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL EDGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS...FIRING OFF TSTMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT MORE SO OVER
WEST TEXAS. A SQUALL LINE IS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING...AND A REMNANT BOUNDARY COULD REACH THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS BY AROUND NOON. THE FRONT ITSELF MAY LOSE DEFINITION
OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY TONIGHT...BUT ITS PRESENCE WILL BE MADE KNOWN
VIA ONGOING CONVECTION WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ADDITIONAL
TSTMS MAY ACTIVATE OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT
INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF ON THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS CONVECTION WILL
MAINLY DIE OUT BEFORE HAVING ANY BIG IMPACT ON THE CWA BUT A FEW
TSTMS COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

MORE INFLUENCE SUNDAY FROM THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST AS MOISTURE POOLS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THOUGH THE FORECAST
SOUNDING SHOWS PWAT STAYING AROUND 1.5 INCHES. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY SUNDAY NONETHELESS...DESTABILIZED
BY THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
CWA ON MONDAY HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT...DOWN INTO
THE MID 80S... WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPPER TROF WILL BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AS RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT
THAN 12 HOURS AGO WITH BOTH MODELS NOW DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THEN PROGRESSING IT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD GEORGIA BY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID LEVEL DRY AIR
BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND EXPANDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
WITH PWATS LOWER AND AN INCREASE IN DRY AIR...MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LOWER ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THEREFORE...HARD TO
ARGUE ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
EXTENDED. FAVORED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY LOCATIONS /EAST OF I 69C TO
THE COAST/ WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE LOCATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WILL RESULT IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOCALLY...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55/58





000
FXUS64 KBRO 300838
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
338 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WILL
TURN INTO A SEASONAL WEATHER DAY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RGV. LOW CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL EDGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS...FIRING OFF TSTMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT MORE SO OVER
WEST TEXAS. A SQUALL LINE IS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING...AND A REMNANT BOUNDARY COULD REACH THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS BY AROUND NOON. THE FRONT ITSELF MAY LOSE DEFINITION
OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY TONIGHT...BUT ITS PRESENCE WILL BE MADE KNOWN
VIA ONGOING CONVECTION WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ADDITIONAL
TSTMS MAY ACTIVATE OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT
INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF ON THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS CONVECTION WILL
MAINLY DIE OUT BEFORE HAVING ANY BIG IMPACT ON THE CWA BUT A FEW
TSTMS COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

MORE INFLUENCE SUNDAY FROM THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST AS MOISTURE POOLS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THOUGH THE FORECAST
SOUNDING SHOWS PWAT STAYING AROUND 1.5 INCHES. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY SUNDAY NONETHELESS...DESTABILIZED
BY THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
CWA ON MONDAY HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT...DOWN INTO
THE MID 80S... WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPPER TROF WILL BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AS RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT
THAN 12 HOURS AGO WITH BOTH MODELS NOW DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THEN PROGRESSING IT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD GEORGIA BY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID LEVEL DRY AIR
BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND EXPANDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
WITH PWATS LOWER AND AN INCREASE IN DRY AIR...MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LOWER ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THEREFORE...HARD TO
ARGUE ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
EXTENDED. FAVORED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY LOCATIONS /EAST OF I 69C TO
THE COAST/ WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE LOCATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WILL RESULT IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOCALLY...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  85  76  83  74 /  10  20  30  20
BROWNSVILLE          87  75  85  73 /  10  20  40  20
HARLINGEN            88  74  85  71 /  10  20  40  20
MCALLEN              90  75  87  73 /  10  20  40  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      91  73  87  71 /  20  30  30  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  75  80  75 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BILLINGS




000
FXUS64 KBRO 300838
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
338 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WILL
TURN INTO A SEASONAL WEATHER DAY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RGV. LOW CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL EDGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS...FIRING OFF TSTMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT MORE SO OVER
WEST TEXAS. A SQUALL LINE IS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING...AND A REMNANT BOUNDARY COULD REACH THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS BY AROUND NOON. THE FRONT ITSELF MAY LOSE DEFINITION
OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY TONIGHT...BUT ITS PRESENCE WILL BE MADE KNOWN
VIA ONGOING CONVECTION WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ADDITIONAL
TSTMS MAY ACTIVATE OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT
INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF ON THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS CONVECTION WILL
MAINLY DIE OUT BEFORE HAVING ANY BIG IMPACT ON THE CWA BUT A FEW
TSTMS COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

MORE INFLUENCE SUNDAY FROM THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST AS MOISTURE POOLS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THOUGH THE FORECAST
SOUNDING SHOWS PWAT STAYING AROUND 1.5 INCHES. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY SUNDAY NONETHELESS...DESTABILIZED
BY THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
CWA ON MONDAY HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT...DOWN INTO
THE MID 80S... WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPPER TROF WILL BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AS RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT
THAN 12 HOURS AGO WITH BOTH MODELS NOW DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THEN PROGRESSING IT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD GEORGIA BY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID LEVEL DRY AIR
BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND EXPANDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
WITH PWATS LOWER AND AN INCREASE IN DRY AIR...MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LOWER ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THEREFORE...HARD TO
ARGUE ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
EXTENDED. FAVORED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY LOCATIONS /EAST OF I 69C TO
THE COAST/ WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE LOCATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WILL RESULT IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOCALLY...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  85  76  83  74 /  10  20  30  20
BROWNSVILLE          87  75  85  73 /  10  20  40  20
HARLINGEN            88  74  85  71 /  10  20  40  20
MCALLEN              90  75  87  73 /  10  20  40  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      91  73  87  71 /  20  30  30  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  75  80  75 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BILLINGS





000
FXUS64 KBRO 300838 CCA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
338 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WILL
TURN INTO A SEASONAL WEATHER DAY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RGV. LOW CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL EDGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS...FIRING OFF TSTMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT MORE SO OVER
WEST TEXAS. A SQUALL LINE IS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING...AND A REMNANT BOUNDARY COULD REACH THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS BY AROUND NOON. THE FRONT ITSELF MAY LOSE DEFINITION
OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY TONIGHT...BUT ITS PRESENCE WILL BE MADE KNOWN
VIA ONGOING CONVECTION WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ADDITIONAL
TSTMS MAY ACTIVATE OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT
INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF ON THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS CONVECTION WILL
MAINLY DIE OUT BEFORE HAVING ANY BIG IMPACT ON THE CWA BUT A FEW
TSTMS COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

MORE INFLUENCE SUNDAY FROM THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST AS MOISTURE POOLS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THOUGH THE FORECAST
SOUNDING SHOWS PWAT STAYING AROUND 1.5 INCHES. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY SUNDAY NONETHELESS...DESTABILIZED
BY THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
CWA ON MONDAY HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT...DOWN INTO
THE MID 80S... WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPPER TROF WILL BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AS RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT
THAN 12 HOURS AGO WITH BOTH MODELS NOW DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THEN PROGRESSING IT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD GEORGIA BY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID LEVEL DRY AIR
BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND EXPANDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
WITH PWATS LOWER AND AN INCREASE IN DRY AIR...MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LOWER ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THEREFORE...HARD TO
ARGUE ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
EXTENDED. FAVORED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY LOCATIONS /EAST OF I 69C TO
THE COAST/ WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE LOCATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WILL RESULT IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOCALLY...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  88  74  85  74 /  10  20  30  20
BROWNSVILLE          88  73  87  73 /  10  20  40  20
HARLINGEN            89  72  86  71 /  10  20  40  20
MCALLEN              91  75  87  73 /  10  20  40  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      94  73  89  71 /  20  30  30  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   86  76  84  75 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BILLINGS




000
FXUS64 KBRO 300838 CCA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
338 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WILL
TURN INTO A SEASONAL WEATHER DAY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RGV. LOW CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL EDGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS...FIRING OFF TSTMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT MORE SO OVER
WEST TEXAS. A SQUALL LINE IS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING...AND A REMNANT BOUNDARY COULD REACH THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS BY AROUND NOON. THE FRONT ITSELF MAY LOSE DEFINITION
OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY TONIGHT...BUT ITS PRESENCE WILL BE MADE KNOWN
VIA ONGOING CONVECTION WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ADDITIONAL
TSTMS MAY ACTIVATE OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT
INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF ON THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS CONVECTION WILL
MAINLY DIE OUT BEFORE HAVING ANY BIG IMPACT ON THE CWA BUT A FEW
TSTMS COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

MORE INFLUENCE SUNDAY FROM THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST AS MOISTURE POOLS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THOUGH THE FORECAST
SOUNDING SHOWS PWAT STAYING AROUND 1.5 INCHES. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY SUNDAY NONETHELESS...DESTABILIZED
BY THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
CWA ON MONDAY HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT...DOWN INTO
THE MID 80S... WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPPER TROF WILL BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AS RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT
THAN 12 HOURS AGO WITH BOTH MODELS NOW DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THEN PROGRESSING IT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD GEORGIA BY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID LEVEL DRY AIR
BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND EXPANDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
WITH PWATS LOWER AND AN INCREASE IN DRY AIR...MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LOWER ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THEREFORE...HARD TO
ARGUE ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
EXTENDED. FAVORED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY LOCATIONS /EAST OF I 69C TO
THE COAST/ WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE LOCATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WILL RESULT IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOCALLY...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  88  74  85  74 /  10  20  30  20
BROWNSVILLE          88  73  87  73 /  10  20  40  20
HARLINGEN            89  72  86  71 /  10  20  40  20
MCALLEN              91  75  87  73 /  10  20  40  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      94  73  89  71 /  20  30  30  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   86  76  84  75 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BILLINGS





000
FXUS64 KBRO 300516 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1216 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NOW WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD REMAIN FEW TO SCT TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SOME TEMPO
MVFR NEAR DAWN. BACKED OFF ON INHERITED THICKER LOW CLOUD COVER
FOR THE NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MIX TOO.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH FEW
TO SCT LOW CLOUDS EARLY BECOMING BKN LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN
WITH CIGS ABOVE 3 KFT. A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLAY...BUT A FRONT OVER WEST TEXAS MAY TRIGGER BIG BEND CONVECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH MORE ACTIVITY OVER THE MEXICAN MNTNS.
THESE SHOULD NOT AFFECT LOCAL TAFS...BUT ARE MENTIONED FOR
COMPLETENESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLD
COVER ADVECTING FROM WEST TO EAST HEADING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TX
FROM THE CONV FIRING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE AREAS WILL
PUSH OVER THE RGV AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY LOW BASED SATURATED
LAYER WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT LIKELY REDUCING THE CEILINGS DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS. THIS SATURATED DECK SHOULD MIX OUT TOMORROW WITH
THE INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MESO LOW MOVING ACROSS NE
TX PUSHED THROUGH A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING. A MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS HAS MOVED BEHIND THIS LOW
ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND WARM REST OF THE DAY. CURRENTLY...THE
LINE OF STORMS IS FURTHER SE INTO THE GULF BUT AN MCV DEVELOP NEAR
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTY WINDS
NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS. DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND NEAR 93 DEGREES NEAR
ZAPATA COUNTY.

TONIGHT...UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER EAST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP ALOFT. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA RETURNING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE INVERSION TONIGHT. DUE
TO THE RAINFALL TODAY AND ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE SATURATED SOIL
.THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE LIGHTER WINDS
TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FROM THE SE FEEDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INLAND. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO REDUCE WITH THE FOG AND BKN TO OVC LOW
CEILINGS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA AND
NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH SLIGHTLY DRY AIR IN THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH CU BUILDING DURING
THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES
WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THE
WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTH.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO OUR AREA BY THE EVENING AND NIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.
LEAN TOWARDS HIGHER POPS BY THE END OF SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
WHEN THE MAIN BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST AND
NEAR 90S TOWARDS THE WEST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT TODAY THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A CUT-OFF 500MB LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND
RETROGRADES THE LOW SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A 500MB RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTH TX BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REGARDLESS OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TX AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO ITO SOUTH TX. SOME
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO EAST TX. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS NORTHWEST TX. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY BUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL SECTIONS AND MOVES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN MCV OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS KEEPING A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON IMPROVING IN THE EARLY EVENING. A SCA IS IN EFFECT DUE
TO THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. TONIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVE WITH SE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW SEAS. INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...A BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL GET
CLOSER TO THE GULF INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET WITH MODERATE
WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF SAT NIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 51 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED NEAR 52 FEET. THE RIVER
STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 51 FEET THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55
FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF
THE FLOOD PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE
RIO GRANDE AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 21 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
FLOOD STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS
THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55




000
FXUS64 KBRO 300516 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1216 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NOW WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD REMAIN FEW TO SCT TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SOME TEMPO
MVFR NEAR DAWN. BACKED OFF ON INHERITED THICKER LOW CLOUD COVER
FOR THE NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MIX TOO.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH FEW
TO SCT LOW CLOUDS EARLY BECOMING BKN LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN
WITH CIGS ABOVE 3 KFT. A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLAY...BUT A FRONT OVER WEST TEXAS MAY TRIGGER BIG BEND CONVECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH MORE ACTIVITY OVER THE MEXICAN MNTNS.
THESE SHOULD NOT AFFECT LOCAL TAFS...BUT ARE MENTIONED FOR
COMPLETENESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLD
COVER ADVECTING FROM WEST TO EAST HEADING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TX
FROM THE CONV FIRING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE AREAS WILL
PUSH OVER THE RGV AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY LOW BASED SATURATED
LAYER WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT LIKELY REDUCING THE CEILINGS DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS. THIS SATURATED DECK SHOULD MIX OUT TOMORROW WITH
THE INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MESO LOW MOVING ACROSS NE
TX PUSHED THROUGH A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING. A MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS HAS MOVED BEHIND THIS LOW
ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND WARM REST OF THE DAY. CURRENTLY...THE
LINE OF STORMS IS FURTHER SE INTO THE GULF BUT AN MCV DEVELOP NEAR
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTY WINDS
NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS. DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND NEAR 93 DEGREES NEAR
ZAPATA COUNTY.

TONIGHT...UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER EAST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP ALOFT. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA RETURNING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE INVERSION TONIGHT. DUE
TO THE RAINFALL TODAY AND ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE SATURATED SOIL
.THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE LIGHTER WINDS
TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FROM THE SE FEEDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INLAND. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO REDUCE WITH THE FOG AND BKN TO OVC LOW
CEILINGS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA AND
NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH SLIGHTLY DRY AIR IN THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH CU BUILDING DURING
THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES
WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THE
WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTH.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO OUR AREA BY THE EVENING AND NIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.
LEAN TOWARDS HIGHER POPS BY THE END OF SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
WHEN THE MAIN BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST AND
NEAR 90S TOWARDS THE WEST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT TODAY THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A CUT-OFF 500MB LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND
RETROGRADES THE LOW SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A 500MB RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTH TX BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REGARDLESS OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TX AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO ITO SOUTH TX. SOME
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO EAST TX. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS NORTHWEST TX. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY BUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL SECTIONS AND MOVES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN MCV OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS KEEPING A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON IMPROVING IN THE EARLY EVENING. A SCA IS IN EFFECT DUE
TO THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. TONIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVE WITH SE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW SEAS. INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...A BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL GET
CLOSER TO THE GULF INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET WITH MODERATE
WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF SAT NIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 51 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED NEAR 52 FEET. THE RIVER
STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 51 FEET THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55
FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF
THE FLOOD PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE
RIO GRANDE AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 21 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
FLOOD STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS
THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55





000
FXUS64 KBRO 300516 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1216 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NOW WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD REMAIN FEW TO SCT TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SOME TEMPO
MVFR NEAR DAWN. BACKED OFF ON INHERITED THICKER LOW CLOUD COVER
FOR THE NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MIX TOO.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH FEW
TO SCT LOW CLOUDS EARLY BECOMING BKN LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN
WITH CIGS ABOVE 3 KFT. A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLAY...BUT A FRONT OVER WEST TEXAS MAY TRIGGER BIG BEND CONVECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH MORE ACTIVITY OVER THE MEXICAN MNTNS.
THESE SHOULD NOT AFFECT LOCAL TAFS...BUT ARE MENTIONED FOR
COMPLETENESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLD
COVER ADVECTING FROM WEST TO EAST HEADING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TX
FROM THE CONV FIRING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE AREAS WILL
PUSH OVER THE RGV AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY LOW BASED SATURATED
LAYER WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT LIKELY REDUCING THE CEILINGS DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS. THIS SATURATED DECK SHOULD MIX OUT TOMORROW WITH
THE INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MESO LOW MOVING ACROSS NE
TX PUSHED THROUGH A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING. A MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS HAS MOVED BEHIND THIS LOW
ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND WARM REST OF THE DAY. CURRENTLY...THE
LINE OF STORMS IS FURTHER SE INTO THE GULF BUT AN MCV DEVELOP NEAR
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTY WINDS
NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS. DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND NEAR 93 DEGREES NEAR
ZAPATA COUNTY.

TONIGHT...UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER EAST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP ALOFT. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA RETURNING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE INVERSION TONIGHT. DUE
TO THE RAINFALL TODAY AND ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE SATURATED SOIL
.THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE LIGHTER WINDS
TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FROM THE SE FEEDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INLAND. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO REDUCE WITH THE FOG AND BKN TO OVC LOW
CEILINGS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA AND
NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH SLIGHTLY DRY AIR IN THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH CU BUILDING DURING
THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES
WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THE
WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTH.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO OUR AREA BY THE EVENING AND NIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.
LEAN TOWARDS HIGHER POPS BY THE END OF SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
WHEN THE MAIN BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST AND
NEAR 90S TOWARDS THE WEST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT TODAY THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A CUT-OFF 500MB LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND
RETROGRADES THE LOW SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A 500MB RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTH TX BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REGARDLESS OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TX AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO ITO SOUTH TX. SOME
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO EAST TX. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS NORTHWEST TX. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY BUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL SECTIONS AND MOVES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN MCV OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS KEEPING A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON IMPROVING IN THE EARLY EVENING. A SCA IS IN EFFECT DUE
TO THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. TONIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVE WITH SE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW SEAS. INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...A BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL GET
CLOSER TO THE GULF INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET WITH MODERATE
WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF SAT NIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 51 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED NEAR 52 FEET. THE RIVER
STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 51 FEET THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55
FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF
THE FLOOD PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE
RIO GRANDE AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 21 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
FLOOD STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS
THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55





000
FXUS64 KBRO 300516 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1216 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NOW WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD REMAIN FEW TO SCT TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SOME TEMPO
MVFR NEAR DAWN. BACKED OFF ON INHERITED THICKER LOW CLOUD COVER
FOR THE NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MIX TOO.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH FEW
TO SCT LOW CLOUDS EARLY BECOMING BKN LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN
WITH CIGS ABOVE 3 KFT. A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLAY...BUT A FRONT OVER WEST TEXAS MAY TRIGGER BIG BEND CONVECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH MORE ACTIVITY OVER THE MEXICAN MNTNS.
THESE SHOULD NOT AFFECT LOCAL TAFS...BUT ARE MENTIONED FOR
COMPLETENESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLD
COVER ADVECTING FROM WEST TO EAST HEADING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TX
FROM THE CONV FIRING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE AREAS WILL
PUSH OVER THE RGV AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY LOW BASED SATURATED
LAYER WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT LIKELY REDUCING THE CEILINGS DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS. THIS SATURATED DECK SHOULD MIX OUT TOMORROW WITH
THE INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MESO LOW MOVING ACROSS NE
TX PUSHED THROUGH A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING. A MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS HAS MOVED BEHIND THIS LOW
ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND WARM REST OF THE DAY. CURRENTLY...THE
LINE OF STORMS IS FURTHER SE INTO THE GULF BUT AN MCV DEVELOP NEAR
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTY WINDS
NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS. DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND NEAR 93 DEGREES NEAR
ZAPATA COUNTY.

TONIGHT...UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER EAST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP ALOFT. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA RETURNING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE INVERSION TONIGHT. DUE
TO THE RAINFALL TODAY AND ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE SATURATED SOIL
.THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE LIGHTER WINDS
TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FROM THE SE FEEDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INLAND. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO REDUCE WITH THE FOG AND BKN TO OVC LOW
CEILINGS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA AND
NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH SLIGHTLY DRY AIR IN THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH CU BUILDING DURING
THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES
WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THE
WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTH.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO OUR AREA BY THE EVENING AND NIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.
LEAN TOWARDS HIGHER POPS BY THE END OF SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
WHEN THE MAIN BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST AND
NEAR 90S TOWARDS THE WEST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT TODAY THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A CUT-OFF 500MB LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND
RETROGRADES THE LOW SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A 500MB RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTH TX BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REGARDLESS OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TX AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO ITO SOUTH TX. SOME
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO EAST TX. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS NORTHWEST TX. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY BUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL SECTIONS AND MOVES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN MCV OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS KEEPING A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON IMPROVING IN THE EARLY EVENING. A SCA IS IN EFFECT DUE
TO THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. TONIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVE WITH SE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW SEAS. INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...A BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL GET
CLOSER TO THE GULF INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET WITH MODERATE
WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF SAT NIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 51 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED NEAR 52 FEET. THE RIVER
STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 51 FEET THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55
FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF
THE FLOOD PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE
RIO GRANDE AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 21 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
FLOOD STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS
THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55




000
FXUS64 KBRO 300155
AFDBRO
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
855 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLD
COVER ADVECTING FROM WEST TO EAST HEADING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TX
FROM THE CONV FIRING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE AREAS WILL
PUSH OVER THE RGV AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY LOW BASED SATURATED
LAYER WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT LIKELY REDUCING THE CEILINGS DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS. THIS SATURATED DECK SHOULD MIX OUT TOMORROW WITH
THE INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MESO LOW MOVING ACROSS NE
TX PUSHED THROUGH A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING. A MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS HAS MOVED BEHIND THIS LOW
ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND WARM REST OF THE DAY. CURRENTLY...THE
LINE OF STORMS IS FURTHER SE INTO THE GULF BUT AN MCV DEVELOP NEAR
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTY WINDS
NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS. DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND NEAR 93 DEGREES NEAR
ZAPATA COUNTY.

TONIGHT...UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER EAST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP ALOFT. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA RETURNING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE INVERSION TONIGHT. DUE
TO THE RAINFALL TODAY AND ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE SATURATED SOIL
..THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE LIGHTER WINDS
TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FROM THE SE FEEDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INLAND. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO REDUCE WITH THE FOG AND BKN TO OVC LOW
CEILINGS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA AND
NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH SLIGHTLY DRY AIR IN THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH CU BUILDING DURING
THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES
WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THE
WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTH.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO OUR AREA BY THE EVENING AND NIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.
LEAN TOWARDS HIGHER POPS BY THE END OF SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
WHEN THE MAIN BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST AND
NEAR 90S TOWARDS THE WEST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT TODAY THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A CUT-OFF 500MB LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND
RETROGRADES THE LOW SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A 500MB RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTH TX BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REGARDLESS OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TX AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO ITO SOUTH TX. SOME
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO EAST TX. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS NORTHWEST TX. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY BUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL SECTIONS AND MOVES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN MCV OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS KEEPING A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON IMPROVING IN THE EARLY EVENING. A SCA IS IN EFFECT DUE
TO THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. TONIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVE WITH SE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW SEAS. INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...A BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL GET
CLOSER TO THE GULF INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET WITH MODERATE
WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF SAT NIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 51 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED NEAR 52 FEET. THE RIVER
STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 51 FEET THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55
FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF
THE FLOOD PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE
RIO GRANDE AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 21 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
FLOOD STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS
THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  85  75  85 /  10  20  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          76  88  75  87 /  10  20  30  40
HARLINGEN            74  89  74  88 /  10  20  30  40
MCALLEN              76  91  74  90 /  10  30  30  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  93  73  91 /  10  30  30  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  81  76  83 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63






000
FXUS64 KBRO 300155
AFDBRO
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
855 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLD
COVER ADVECTING FROM WEST TO EAST HEADING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TX
FROM THE CONV FIRING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE AREAS WILL
PUSH OVER THE RGV AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY LOW BASED SATURATED
LAYER WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT LIKELY REDUCING THE CEILINGS DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS. THIS SATURATED DECK SHOULD MIX OUT TOMORROW WITH
THE INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MESO LOW MOVING ACROSS NE
TX PUSHED THROUGH A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING. A MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS HAS MOVED BEHIND THIS LOW
ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND WARM REST OF THE DAY. CURRENTLY...THE
LINE OF STORMS IS FURTHER SE INTO THE GULF BUT AN MCV DEVELOP NEAR
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTY WINDS
NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS. DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND NEAR 93 DEGREES NEAR
ZAPATA COUNTY.

TONIGHT...UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER EAST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP ALOFT. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA RETURNING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE INVERSION TONIGHT. DUE
TO THE RAINFALL TODAY AND ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE SATURATED SOIL
..THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE LIGHTER WINDS
TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FROM THE SE FEEDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INLAND. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO REDUCE WITH THE FOG AND BKN TO OVC LOW
CEILINGS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA AND
NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH SLIGHTLY DRY AIR IN THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH CU BUILDING DURING
THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES
WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THE
WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTH.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO OUR AREA BY THE EVENING AND NIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.
LEAN TOWARDS HIGHER POPS BY THE END OF SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
WHEN THE MAIN BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST AND
NEAR 90S TOWARDS THE WEST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT TODAY THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A CUT-OFF 500MB LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND
RETROGRADES THE LOW SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A 500MB RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTH TX BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REGARDLESS OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TX AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO ITO SOUTH TX. SOME
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO EAST TX. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS NORTHWEST TX. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY BUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL SECTIONS AND MOVES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN MCV OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS KEEPING A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON IMPROVING IN THE EARLY EVENING. A SCA IS IN EFFECT DUE
TO THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. TONIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVE WITH SE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW SEAS. INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...A BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL GET
CLOSER TO THE GULF INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET WITH MODERATE
WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF SAT NIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 51 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED NEAR 52 FEET. THE RIVER
STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 51 FEET THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55
FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF
THE FLOOD PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE
RIO GRANDE AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 21 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
FLOOD STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS
THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  85  75  85 /  10  20  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          76  88  75  87 /  10  20  30  40
HARLINGEN            74  89  74  88 /  10  20  30  40
MCALLEN              76  91  74  90 /  10  30  30  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  93  73  91 /  10  30  30  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  81  76  83 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63






000
FXUS64 KBRO 300155 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
855 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLD
COVER ADVECTING FROM WEST TO EAST HEADING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TX
FROM THE CONV FIRING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE AREAS WILL
PUSH OVER THE RGV AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY LOW BASED SATURATED
LAYER WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT LIKELY REDUCING THE CEILINGS DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS. THIS SATURATED DECK SHOULD MIX OUT TOMORROW WITH
THE INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MESO LOW MOVING ACROSS NE
TX PUSHED THROUGH A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING. A MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS HAS MOVED BEHIND THIS LOW
ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND WARM REST OF THE DAY. CURRENTLY...THE
LINE OF STORMS IS FURTHER SE INTO THE GULF BUT AN MCV DEVELOP NEAR
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTY WINDS
NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS. DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND NEAR 93 DEGREES NEAR
ZAPATA COUNTY.

TONIGHT...UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER EAST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP ALOFT. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA RETURNING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE INVERSION TONIGHT. DUE
TO THE RAINFALL TODAY AND ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE SATURATED SOIL
..THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE LIGHTER WINDS
TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FROM THE SE FEEDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INLAND. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO REDUCE WITH THE FOG AND BKN TO OVC LOW
CEILINGS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA AND
NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH SLIGHTLY DRY AIR IN THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH CU BUILDING DURING
THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES
WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THE
WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTH.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO OUR AREA BY THE EVENING AND NIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.
LEAN TOWARDS HIGHER POPS BY THE END OF SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
WHEN THE MAIN BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST AND
NEAR 90S TOWARDS THE WEST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT TODAY THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A CUT-OFF 500MB LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND
RETROGRADES THE LOW SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A 500MB RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTH TX BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REGARDLESS OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TX AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO ITO SOUTH TX. SOME
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO EAST TX. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS NORTHWEST TX. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY BUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL SECTIONS AND MOVES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN MCV OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS KEEPING A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON IMPROVING IN THE EARLY EVENING. A SCA IS IN EFFECT DUE
TO THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. TONIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVE WITH SE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW SEAS. INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...A BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL GET
CLOSER TO THE GULF INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET WITH MODERATE
WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF SAT NIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 51 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED NEAR 52 FEET. THE RIVER
STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 51 FEET THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55
FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF
THE FLOOD PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE
RIO GRANDE AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 21 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
FLOOD STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS
THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  85  75  85 /  10  20  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          76  88  75  87 /  10  20  30  40
HARLINGEN            74  89  74  88 /  10  20  30  40
MCALLEN              76  91  74  90 /  10  30  30  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  93  73  91 /  10  30  30  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  81  76  83 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 300155 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
855 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLD
COVER ADVECTING FROM WEST TO EAST HEADING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TX
FROM THE CONV FIRING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE AREAS WILL
PUSH OVER THE RGV AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY LOW BASED SATURATED
LAYER WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT LIKELY REDUCING THE CEILINGS DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS. THIS SATURATED DECK SHOULD MIX OUT TOMORROW WITH
THE INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MESO LOW MOVING ACROSS NE
TX PUSHED THROUGH A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING. A MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS HAS MOVED BEHIND THIS LOW
ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND WARM REST OF THE DAY. CURRENTLY...THE
LINE OF STORMS IS FURTHER SE INTO THE GULF BUT AN MCV DEVELOP NEAR
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTY WINDS
NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS. DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND NEAR 93 DEGREES NEAR
ZAPATA COUNTY.

TONIGHT...UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER EAST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP ALOFT. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA RETURNING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE INVERSION TONIGHT. DUE
TO THE RAINFALL TODAY AND ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE SATURATED SOIL
..THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE LIGHTER WINDS
TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FROM THE SE FEEDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INLAND. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO REDUCE WITH THE FOG AND BKN TO OVC LOW
CEILINGS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA AND
NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH SLIGHTLY DRY AIR IN THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH CU BUILDING DURING
THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES
WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THE
WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTH.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO OUR AREA BY THE EVENING AND NIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.
LEAN TOWARDS HIGHER POPS BY THE END OF SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
WHEN THE MAIN BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST AND
NEAR 90S TOWARDS THE WEST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT TODAY THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A CUT-OFF 500MB LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND
RETROGRADES THE LOW SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A 500MB RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTH TX BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REGARDLESS OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TX AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO ITO SOUTH TX. SOME
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO EAST TX. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS NORTHWEST TX. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY BUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL SECTIONS AND MOVES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN MCV OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS KEEPING A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON IMPROVING IN THE EARLY EVENING. A SCA IS IN EFFECT DUE
TO THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. TONIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVE WITH SE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW SEAS. INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...A BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL GET
CLOSER TO THE GULF INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET WITH MODERATE
WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF SAT NIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 51 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED NEAR 52 FEET. THE RIVER
STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 51 FEET THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55
FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF
THE FLOOD PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE
RIO GRANDE AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 21 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
FLOOD STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS
THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  85  75  85 /  10  20  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          76  88  75  87 /  10  20  30  40
HARLINGEN            74  89  74  88 /  10  20  30  40
MCALLEN              76  91  74  90 /  10  30  30  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  93  73  91 /  10  30  30  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  81  76  83 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 292058
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
358 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MESO LOW MOVING ACROSS NE
TX PUSHED THROUGH A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING. A MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS HAS MOVED BEHIND THIS LOW
ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND WARM REST OF THE DAY. CURRENTLY...THE
LINE OF STORMS IS FURTHER SE INTO THE GULF BUT AN MCV DEVELOP NEAR
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTY WINDS
NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS. DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND NEAR 93 DEGREES NEAR
ZAPATA COUNTY.

TONIGHT...UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER EAST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP ALOFT. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA RETURNING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE INVERSION TONIGHT. DUE
TO THE RAINFALL TODAY AND ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE SATURATED SOIL
...THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE LIGHTER WINDS
TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FROM THE SE FEEDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INLAND. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO REDUCE WITH THE FOG AND BKN TO OVC LOW
CEILINGS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA AND
NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH SLIGHTLY DRY AIR IN THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH CU BUILDING DURING
THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES
WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THE
WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTH.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO OUR AREA BY THE EVENING AND NIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.
LEAN TOWARDS HIGHER POPS BY THE END OF SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
WHEN THE MAIN BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST AND
NEAR 90S TOWARDS THE WEST.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT TODAY THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A CUT-OFF 500MB LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND
RETROGRADES THE LOW SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A 500MB RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTH TX BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REGARDLESS OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TX AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO ITO SOUTH TX. SOME
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO EAST TX. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS NORTHWEST TX. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY BUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL SECTIONS AND MOVES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN MCV OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS KEEPING A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON IMPROVING IN THE EARLY EVENING. A SCA IS IN EFFECT DUE
TO THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. TONIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVE WITH SE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW SEAS. INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...A BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL GET
CLOSER TO THE GULF INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET WITH MODERATE
WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF SAT NIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 51 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED NEAR 52 FEET. THE RIVER
STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 51 FEET THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55
FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF
THE FLOOD PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE
RIO GRANDE AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 21 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
FLOOD STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS
THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  85  75  85 /  10  20  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          76  88  75  87 /  10  20  30  40
HARLINGEN            74  89  74  88 /  10  20  30  40
MCALLEN              76  91  74  90 /  10  30  30  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  93  73  91 /  10  30  30  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  81  76  83 /  10  10  30  40
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ130-150-170.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61/BIRCHFIELD




000
FXUS64 KBRO 292058
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
358 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MESO LOW MOVING ACROSS NE
TX PUSHED THROUGH A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING. A MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS HAS MOVED BEHIND THIS LOW
ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND WARM REST OF THE DAY. CURRENTLY...THE
LINE OF STORMS IS FURTHER SE INTO THE GULF BUT AN MCV DEVELOP NEAR
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTY WINDS
NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS. DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND NEAR 93 DEGREES NEAR
ZAPATA COUNTY.

TONIGHT...UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER EAST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP ALOFT. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA RETURNING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE INVERSION TONIGHT. DUE
TO THE RAINFALL TODAY AND ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE SATURATED SOIL
...THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE LIGHTER WINDS
TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FROM THE SE FEEDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INLAND. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO REDUCE WITH THE FOG AND BKN TO OVC LOW
CEILINGS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA AND
NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH SLIGHTLY DRY AIR IN THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH CU BUILDING DURING
THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES
WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THE
WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTH.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO OUR AREA BY THE EVENING AND NIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.
LEAN TOWARDS HIGHER POPS BY THE END OF SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
WHEN THE MAIN BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST AND
NEAR 90S TOWARDS THE WEST.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT TODAY THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A CUT-OFF 500MB LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND
RETROGRADES THE LOW SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A 500MB RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTH TX BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REGARDLESS OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TX AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO ITO SOUTH TX. SOME
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO EAST TX. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS NORTHWEST TX. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY BUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL SECTIONS AND MOVES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN MCV OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS KEEPING A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON IMPROVING IN THE EARLY EVENING. A SCA IS IN EFFECT DUE
TO THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. TONIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVE WITH SE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW SEAS. INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...A BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL GET
CLOSER TO THE GULF INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET WITH MODERATE
WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF SAT NIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 51 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED NEAR 52 FEET. THE RIVER
STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 51 FEET THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55
FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF
THE FLOOD PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE
RIO GRANDE AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 21 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
FLOOD STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS
THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  85  75  85 /  10  20  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          76  88  75  87 /  10  20  30  40
HARLINGEN            74  89  74  88 /  10  20  30  40
MCALLEN              76  91  74  90 /  10  30  30  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  93  73  91 /  10  30  30  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  81  76  83 /  10  10  30  40
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ130-150-170.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61/BIRCHFIELD





000
FXUS64 KBRO 291750
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVC DEVELOPED RIGHT ALONG THE COAST NEAR SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND PORT ISABEL. THIS LOW IS STRENGTHENING AND
INCREASING THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS CLOSE TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS WITH LIGHT RAIN. THIS
WILL IMPACT KBRO IN THE NEXT HOUR AND EXTEND INTO HARLINGEN.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE WITH LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT.
AROUND MIDNIGHT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CEILINGS DUE
TO THE HUMIDITY AND TE SATURATED SOIL ACROSS THE AREA FROM
RAINFALL TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH PRODUCING SOME STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. INCREASE
POPS THROUGH MID MORNING AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK UP BETWEEN 40 TO 50
MPH AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A SQUALL LINE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA AT
20 TO 25 MPH. THIS WILL PLACE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...STRONG...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE TAF
SITES WITHIN TWO TO THREE HOURS. LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS. AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING...OR AWW...
MAY BE NEEDED FOR BRO AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WEATHER. ONCE THE
LINE OF STORMS MOVES AWAY AND/OR WEAKENS...AVIATION CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR. A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...AN EARLY MORNING SQUALL
LINE IS APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. THE LINE WILL REACH
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY AROUND 4 AM AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY AROUND 8 AM. STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE INHERITED
FORECAST FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. ONCE THE SQUALL LINE
MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END BY
AROUND NOON...AND SOME CLRNG ALONG WITH MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GET THE LOW CU STREAKS GOING... BUT FORECAST PWAT WILL REMAIN
BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND ANY SEA BREEZE WILL BE WEAK.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT DESCENDING FROM THE NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE IT MAY
STALL. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH LIMITED CAP
AND DAYTIME HEATING. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ALSO FIRE OVER THE
MEXICAN MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ENERGY FOCUSED IN TAIL OF EXITING MID LEVEL TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...SFC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND STALL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
OF THE CWA THEN DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY. AN UPPER TROF WILL ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN MEANDERING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH THURSDAY.
OVERALL WE WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW HOWEVER
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AND A DECENT SEABREEZE SETUP SUNDAY
AND MONDAY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE MID LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LEADING
TO MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAKER SEABREEZE IF ANY AT
ALL.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...AN EARLY MORNING SQUALL LINE
WILL RESULT IN MARINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NOON OR
EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO
30 KTS. THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD ENTER THE NORTHWEST WATERS AROUND 4
AM. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE LINE. OUTSIDE OF THIS INITIAL DISRUPTION...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61




000
FXUS64 KBRO 291750
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVC DEVELOPED RIGHT ALONG THE COAST NEAR SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND PORT ISABEL. THIS LOW IS STRENGTHENING AND
INCREASING THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS CLOSE TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS WITH LIGHT RAIN. THIS
WILL IMPACT KBRO IN THE NEXT HOUR AND EXTEND INTO HARLINGEN.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE WITH LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT.
AROUND MIDNIGHT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CEILINGS DUE
TO THE HUMIDITY AND TE SATURATED SOIL ACROSS THE AREA FROM
RAINFALL TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH PRODUCING SOME STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. INCREASE
POPS THROUGH MID MORNING AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK UP BETWEEN 40 TO 50
MPH AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A SQUALL LINE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA AT
20 TO 25 MPH. THIS WILL PLACE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...STRONG...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE TAF
SITES WITHIN TWO TO THREE HOURS. LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS. AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING...OR AWW...
MAY BE NEEDED FOR BRO AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WEATHER. ONCE THE
LINE OF STORMS MOVES AWAY AND/OR WEAKENS...AVIATION CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR. A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...AN EARLY MORNING SQUALL
LINE IS APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. THE LINE WILL REACH
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY AROUND 4 AM AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY AROUND 8 AM. STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE INHERITED
FORECAST FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. ONCE THE SQUALL LINE
MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END BY
AROUND NOON...AND SOME CLRNG ALONG WITH MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GET THE LOW CU STREAKS GOING... BUT FORECAST PWAT WILL REMAIN
BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND ANY SEA BREEZE WILL BE WEAK.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT DESCENDING FROM THE NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE IT MAY
STALL. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH LIMITED CAP
AND DAYTIME HEATING. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ALSO FIRE OVER THE
MEXICAN MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ENERGY FOCUSED IN TAIL OF EXITING MID LEVEL TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...SFC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND STALL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
OF THE CWA THEN DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY. AN UPPER TROF WILL ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN MEANDERING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH THURSDAY.
OVERALL WE WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW HOWEVER
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AND A DECENT SEABREEZE SETUP SUNDAY
AND MONDAY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE MID LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LEADING
TO MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAKER SEABREEZE IF ANY AT
ALL.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...AN EARLY MORNING SQUALL LINE
WILL RESULT IN MARINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NOON OR
EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO
30 KTS. THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD ENTER THE NORTHWEST WATERS AROUND 4
AM. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE LINE. OUTSIDE OF THIS INITIAL DISRUPTION...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61





000
FXUS64 KBRO 291408
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
908 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH PRODUCING SOME STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. INCREASE
POPS THROUGH MID MORNING AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK UP BETWEEN 40 TO 50
MPH AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A SQUALL LINE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA AT
20 TO 25 MPH. THIS WILL PLACE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...STRONG...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE TAF
SITES WITHIN TWO TO THREE HOURS. LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS. AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING...OR AWW...
MAY BE NEEDED FOR BRO AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WEATHER. ONCE THE
LINE OF STORMS MOVES AWAY AND/OR WEAKENS...AVIATION CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR. A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...AN EARLY MORNING SQUALL
LINE IS APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. THE LINE WILL REACH
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY AROUND 4 AM AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY AROUND 8 AM. STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE INHERITED
FORECAST FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. ONCE THE SQUALL LINE
MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END BY
AROUND NOON...AND SOME CLRNG ALONG WITH MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GET THE LOW CU STREAKS GOING... BUT FORECAST PWAT WILL REMAIN
BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND ANY SEA BREEZE WILL BE WEAK.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT DESCENDING FROM THE NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE IT MAY
STALL. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH LIMITED CAP
AND DAYTIME HEATING. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ALSO FIRE OVER THE
MEXICAN MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ENERGY FOCUSED IN TAIL OF EXITING MID LEVEL TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...SFC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND STALL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
OF THE CWA THEN DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY. AN UPPER TROF WILL ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN MEANDERING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH THURSDAY.
OVERALL WE WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW HOWEVER
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AND A DECENT SEABREEZE SETUP SUNDAY
AND MONDAY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE MID LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LEADING
TO MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAKER SEABREEZE IF ANY AT
ALL.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...AN EARLY MORNING SQUALL LINE
WILL RESULT IN MARINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NOON OR
EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO
30 KTS. THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD ENTER THE NORTHWEST WATERS AROUND 4
AM. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE LINE. OUTSIDE OF THIS INITIAL DISRUPTION...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  78  85  75 /  60  10  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          87  76  88  74 /  60  10  20  30
HARLINGEN            88  76  88  73 /  60  10  20  30
MCALLEN              90  76  90  74 /  20  10  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      91  75  90  72 /  20  20  30  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   83  78  82  76 /  60  10  10  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61




000
FXUS64 KBRO 291114 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
614 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A SQUALL LINE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA AT
20 TO 25 MPH. THIS WILL PLACE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...STRONG...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE TAF
SITES WITHIN TWO TO THREE HOURS. LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS. AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING...OR AWW...
MAY BE NEEDED FOR BRO AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WEATHER. ONCE THE
LINE OF STORMS MOVES AWAY AND/OR WEAKENS...AVIATION CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR. A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...AN EARLY MORNING SQUALL
LINE IS APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. THE LINE WILL REACH
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY AROUND 4 AM AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY AROUND 8 AM. STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE INHERITED
FORECAST FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. ONCE THE SQUALL LINE
MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END BY
AROUND NOON...AND SOME CLRNG ALONG WITH MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GET THE LOW CU STREAKS GOING... BUT FORECAST PWAT WILL REMAIN
BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND ANY SEA BREEZE WILL BE WEAK.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT DESCENDING FROM THE NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE IT MAY
STALL. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH LIMITED CAP
AND DAYTIME HEATING. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ALSO FIRE OVER THE
MEXICAN MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ENERGY FOCUSED IN TAIL OF EXITING MID LEVEL TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...SFC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND STALL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
OF THE CWA THEN DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY. AN UPPER TROF WILL ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN MEANDERING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH THURSDAY.
OVERALL WE WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW HOWEVER
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AND A DECENT SEABREEZE SETUP SUNDAY
AND MONDAY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE MID LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LEADING
TO MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAKER SEABREEZE IF ANY AT
ALL.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...AN EARLY MORNING SQUALL LINE
WILL RESULT IN MARINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NOON OR
EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO
30 KTS. THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD ENTER THE NORTHWEST WATERS AROUND 4
AM. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE LINE. OUTSIDE OF THIS INITIAL DISRUPTION...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55




000
FXUS64 KBRO 291114 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
614 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A SQUALL LINE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA AT
20 TO 25 MPH. THIS WILL PLACE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...STRONG...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE TAF
SITES WITHIN TWO TO THREE HOURS. LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS. AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING...OR AWW...
MAY BE NEEDED FOR BRO AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WEATHER. ONCE THE
LINE OF STORMS MOVES AWAY AND/OR WEAKENS...AVIATION CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR. A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...AN EARLY MORNING SQUALL
LINE IS APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. THE LINE WILL REACH
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY AROUND 4 AM AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY AROUND 8 AM. STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE INHERITED
FORECAST FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. ONCE THE SQUALL LINE
MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END BY
AROUND NOON...AND SOME CLRNG ALONG WITH MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GET THE LOW CU STREAKS GOING... BUT FORECAST PWAT WILL REMAIN
BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND ANY SEA BREEZE WILL BE WEAK.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT DESCENDING FROM THE NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE IT MAY
STALL. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH LIMITED CAP
AND DAYTIME HEATING. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ALSO FIRE OVER THE
MEXICAN MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ENERGY FOCUSED IN TAIL OF EXITING MID LEVEL TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...SFC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND STALL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
OF THE CWA THEN DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY. AN UPPER TROF WILL ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN MEANDERING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH THURSDAY.
OVERALL WE WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW HOWEVER
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AND A DECENT SEABREEZE SETUP SUNDAY
AND MONDAY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE MID LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LEADING
TO MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAKER SEABREEZE IF ANY AT
ALL.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...AN EARLY MORNING SQUALL LINE
WILL RESULT IN MARINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NOON OR
EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO
30 KTS. THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD ENTER THE NORTHWEST WATERS AROUND 4
AM. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE LINE. OUTSIDE OF THIS INITIAL DISRUPTION...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55





000
FXUS64 KBRO 290759
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
259 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...AN EARLY MORNING SQUALL
LINE IS APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. THE LINE WILL REACH
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY AROUND 4 AM AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY AROUND 8 AM. STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE INHERITED
FORECAST FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. ONCE THE SQUALL LINE
MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END BY
AROUND NOON...AND SOME CLRNG ALONG WITH MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GET THE LOW CU STREAKS GOING... BUT FORECAST PWAT WILL REMAIN
BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND ANY SEA BREEZE WILL BE WEAK.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT DESCENDING FROM THE NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE IT MAY
STALL. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH LIMITED CAP
AND DAYTIME HEATING. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ALSO FIRE OVER THE
MEXICAN MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ENERGY FOCUSED IN TAIL OF EXITING MID LEVEL TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...SFC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND STALL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
OF THE CWA THEN DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY. AN UPPER TROF WILL ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN MEANDERING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH THURSDAY.
OVERALL WE WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW HOWEVER
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AND A DECENT SEABREEZE SETUP SUNDAY
AND MONDAY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE MID LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LEADING
TO MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAKER SEABREEZE IF ANY AT
ALL.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...AN EARLY MORNING SQUALL LINE
WILL RESULT IN MARINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NOON OR
EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO
30 KTS. THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD ENTER THE NORTHWEST WATERS AROUND 4
AM. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE LINE. OUTSIDE OF THIS INITIAL DISRUPTION...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  78  85  75 /  30  10  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          87  76  88  74 /  20  10  20  30
HARLINGEN            88  76  88  73 /  30  10  20  30
MCALLEN              90  76  90  74 /  20  10  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      91  75  90  72 /  20  20  30  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   83  78  82  76 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BILLINGS




000
FXUS64 KBRO 290759
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
259 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...AN EARLY MORNING SQUALL
LINE IS APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. THE LINE WILL REACH
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY AROUND 4 AM AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY AROUND 8 AM. STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE INHERITED
FORECAST FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. ONCE THE SQUALL LINE
MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END BY
AROUND NOON...AND SOME CLRNG ALONG WITH MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GET THE LOW CU STREAKS GOING... BUT FORECAST PWAT WILL REMAIN
BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND ANY SEA BREEZE WILL BE WEAK.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT DESCENDING FROM THE NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE IT MAY
STALL. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH LIMITED CAP
AND DAYTIME HEATING. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ALSO FIRE OVER THE
MEXICAN MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ENERGY FOCUSED IN TAIL OF EXITING MID LEVEL TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...SFC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND STALL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
OF THE CWA THEN DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY. AN UPPER TROF WILL ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN MEANDERING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH THURSDAY.
OVERALL WE WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW HOWEVER
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AND A DECENT SEABREEZE SETUP SUNDAY
AND MONDAY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE MID LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LEADING
TO MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAKER SEABREEZE IF ANY AT
ALL.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...AN EARLY MORNING SQUALL LINE
WILL RESULT IN MARINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NOON OR
EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO
30 KTS. THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD ENTER THE NORTHWEST WATERS AROUND 4
AM. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE LINE. OUTSIDE OF THIS INITIAL DISRUPTION...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  78  85  75 /  30  10  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          87  76  88  74 /  20  10  20  30
HARLINGEN            88  76  88  73 /  30  10  20  30
MCALLEN              90  76  90  74 /  20  10  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      91  75  90  72 /  20  20  30  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   83  78  82  76 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BILLINGS





000
FXUS64 KBRO 290454
AFDBRO
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1154 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MULTILAYERED LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS AT BRO. THE EVENING SOUNDING GOES ALONG
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN SUGGESTING BKN TO OVC MVFR CIGS AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT...SCATTERING OUT OR AT LEAST
LIFTING ABOVE MVFR BY MID MORNING AS MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
RESUME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING RIGHT NOW...WITH MVFR EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN FIRING OVER THE NEARBY
HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...BUT THIS IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE THREE MAJOR AERODROMES TONIGHT. VFR WILL RESUME
TOMORROW WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS. CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW...AS SOME MODELS INDICATE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ISOLATED
AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND A RIDGE OVERHEAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA
INTO ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOR POPS.

THE 500MB TROUGH OVER ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BIG BEND REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CONVECTION NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BUT
THE LATEST NAM AND THE 18Z HRRR BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TODAY. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WEST...ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF AREA ON FRIDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR TONIGHT...AND A
MARGINAL RISK AREA WIDE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES SATURDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD SUNDAY BEFORE CUTTING OFF AS A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RETROGRADING
SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND REACHING THE TX COAST LINE SUNDAY BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR INCREASES ACROSS
SOUTH TX WITH THE INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE WEST OF THE CLOSED 500MB
LOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALLOWS SEABREEZE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS
AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WILL INTERACT WITH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON LAGUNA MADRE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
FOR STRONGER WINDS. A MODERATE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONDITIONS SEAS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN LIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS WEST TEXAS.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 51 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 20 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOOD
STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55






000
FXUS64 KBRO 290454 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1154 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MULTILAYERED LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS AT BRO. THE EVENING SOUNDING GOES ALONG
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN SUGGESTING BKN TO OVC MVFR CIGS AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT...SCATTERING OUT OR AT LEAST
LIFTING ABOVE MVFR BY MID MORNING AS MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
RESUME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING RIGHT NOW...WITH MVFR EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN FIRING OVER THE NEARBY
HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...BUT THIS IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE THREE MAJOR AERODROMES TONIGHT. VFR WILL RESUME
TOMORROW WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS. CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW...AS SOME MODELS INDICATE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ISOLATED
AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND A RIDGE OVERHEAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA
INTO ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOR POPS.

THE 500MB TROUGH OVER ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BIG BEND REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CONVECTION NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BUT
THE LATEST NAM AND THE 18Z HRRR BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TODAY. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WEST...ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF AREA ON FRIDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR TONIGHT...AND A
MARGINAL RISK AREA WIDE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES SATURDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD SUNDAY BEFORE CUTTING OFF AS A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RETROGRADING
SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND REACHING THE TX COAST LINE SUNDAY BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR INCREASES ACROSS
SOUTH TX WITH THE INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE WEST OF THE CLOSED 500MB
LOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALLOWS SEABREEZE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS
AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WILL INTERACT WITH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON LAGUNA MADRE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
FOR STRONGER WINDS. A MODERATE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONDITIONS SEAS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN LIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS WEST TEXAS.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 51 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 20 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOOD
STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55





000
FXUS64 KBRO 290454 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1154 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MULTILAYERED LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS AT BRO. THE EVENING SOUNDING GOES ALONG
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN SUGGESTING BKN TO OVC MVFR CIGS AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT...SCATTERING OUT OR AT LEAST
LIFTING ABOVE MVFR BY MID MORNING AS MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
RESUME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING RIGHT NOW...WITH MVFR EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN FIRING OVER THE NEARBY
HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...BUT THIS IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE THREE MAJOR AERODROMES TONIGHT. VFR WILL RESUME
TOMORROW WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS. CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW...AS SOME MODELS INDICATE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ISOLATED
AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND A RIDGE OVERHEAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA
INTO ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOR POPS.

THE 500MB TROUGH OVER ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BIG BEND REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CONVECTION NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BUT
THE LATEST NAM AND THE 18Z HRRR BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TODAY. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WEST...ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF AREA ON FRIDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR TONIGHT...AND A
MARGINAL RISK AREA WIDE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES SATURDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD SUNDAY BEFORE CUTTING OFF AS A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RETROGRADING
SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND REACHING THE TX COAST LINE SUNDAY BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR INCREASES ACROSS
SOUTH TX WITH THE INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE WEST OF THE CLOSED 500MB
LOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALLOWS SEABREEZE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS
AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WILL INTERACT WITH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON LAGUNA MADRE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
FOR STRONGER WINDS. A MODERATE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONDITIONS SEAS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN LIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS WEST TEXAS.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 51 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 20 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOOD
STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55




000
FXUS64 KBRO 290454 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1154 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MULTILAYERED LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS AT BRO. THE EVENING SOUNDING GOES ALONG
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN SUGGESTING BKN TO OVC MVFR CIGS AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT...SCATTERING OUT OR AT LEAST
LIFTING ABOVE MVFR BY MID MORNING AS MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
RESUME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING RIGHT NOW...WITH MVFR EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN FIRING OVER THE NEARBY
HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...BUT THIS IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE THREE MAJOR AERODROMES TONIGHT. VFR WILL RESUME
TOMORROW WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS. CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW...AS SOME MODELS INDICATE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ISOLATED
AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND A RIDGE OVERHEAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA
INTO ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOR POPS.

THE 500MB TROUGH OVER ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BIG BEND REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CONVECTION NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BUT
THE LATEST NAM AND THE 18Z HRRR BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TODAY. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WEST...ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF AREA ON FRIDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR TONIGHT...AND A
MARGINAL RISK AREA WIDE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES SATURDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD SUNDAY BEFORE CUTTING OFF AS A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RETROGRADING
SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND REACHING THE TX COAST LINE SUNDAY BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR INCREASES ACROSS
SOUTH TX WITH THE INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE WEST OF THE CLOSED 500MB
LOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALLOWS SEABREEZE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS
AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WILL INTERACT WITH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON LAGUNA MADRE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
FOR STRONGER WINDS. A MODERATE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONDITIONS SEAS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN LIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS WEST TEXAS.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 51 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 20 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOOD
STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55





000
FXUS64 KBRO 290454
AFDBRO
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1154 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MULTILAYERED LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS AT BRO. THE EVENING SOUNDING GOES ALONG
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN SUGGESTING BKN TO OVC MVFR CIGS AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT...SCATTERING OUT OR AT LEAST
LIFTING ABOVE MVFR BY MID MORNING AS MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
RESUME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING RIGHT NOW...WITH MVFR EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN FIRING OVER THE NEARBY
HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...BUT THIS IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE THREE MAJOR AERODROMES TONIGHT. VFR WILL RESUME
TOMORROW WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS. CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW...AS SOME MODELS INDICATE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ISOLATED
AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND A RIDGE OVERHEAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA
INTO ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOR POPS.

THE 500MB TROUGH OVER ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BIG BEND REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CONVECTION NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BUT
THE LATEST NAM AND THE 18Z HRRR BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TODAY. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WEST...ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF AREA ON FRIDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR TONIGHT...AND A
MARGINAL RISK AREA WIDE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES SATURDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD SUNDAY BEFORE CUTTING OFF AS A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RETROGRADING
SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND REACHING THE TX COAST LINE SUNDAY BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR INCREASES ACROSS
SOUTH TX WITH THE INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE WEST OF THE CLOSED 500MB
LOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALLOWS SEABREEZE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS
AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WILL INTERACT WITH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON LAGUNA MADRE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
FOR STRONGER WINDS. A MODERATE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONDITIONS SEAS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN LIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS WEST TEXAS.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 51 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 20 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOOD
STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55






000
FXUS64 KBRO 290454 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1154 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MULTILAYERED LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS AT BRO. THE EVENING SOUNDING GOES ALONG
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN SUGGESTING BKN TO OVC MVFR CIGS AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT...SCATTERING OUT OR AT LEAST
LIFTING ABOVE MVFR BY MID MORNING AS MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
RESUME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING RIGHT NOW...WITH MVFR EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN FIRING OVER THE NEARBY
HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...BUT THIS IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE THREE MAJOR AERODROMES TONIGHT. VFR WILL RESUME
TOMORROW WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS. CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW...AS SOME MODELS INDICATE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ISOLATED
AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND A RIDGE OVERHEAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA
INTO ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOR POPS.

THE 500MB TROUGH OVER ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BIG BEND REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CONVECTION NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BUT
THE LATEST NAM AND THE 18Z HRRR BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TODAY. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WEST...ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF AREA ON FRIDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR TONIGHT...AND A
MARGINAL RISK AREA WIDE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES SATURDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD SUNDAY BEFORE CUTTING OFF AS A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RETROGRADING
SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND REACHING THE TX COAST LINE SUNDAY BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR INCREASES ACROSS
SOUTH TX WITH THE INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE WEST OF THE CLOSED 500MB
LOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALLOWS SEABREEZE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS
AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WILL INTERACT WITH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON LAGUNA MADRE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
FOR STRONGER WINDS. A MODERATE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONDITIONS SEAS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN LIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS WEST TEXAS.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 51 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 20 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOOD
STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55




000
FXUS64 KBRO 282340 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
640 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING RIGHT NOW...WITH MVFR EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN FIRING OVER THE NEARBY
HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...BUT THIS IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE THREE MAJOR AERODROMES TONIGHT. VFR WILL RESUME
TOMORROW WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS. CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW...AS SOME MODELS INDICATE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ISOLATED
AREAS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND A RIDGE OVERHEAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA
INTO ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOR POPS.

THE 500MB TROUGH OVER ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BIG BEND REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CONVECTION NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BUT
THE LATEST NAM AND THE 18Z HRRR BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TODAY. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WEST...ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF AREA ON FRIDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR TONIGHT...AND A
MARGINAL RISK AREA WIDE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES SATURDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD SUNDAY BEFORE CUTTING OFF AS A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RETROGRADING
SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND REACHING THE TX COAST LINE SUNDAY BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR INCREASES ACROSS
SOUTH TX WITH THE INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE WEST OF THE CLOSED 500MB
LOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALLOWS SEABREEZE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS
AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WILL INTERACT WITH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON LAGUNA MADRE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
FOR STRONGER WINDS. A MODERATE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONDITIONS SEAS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN LIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS WEST TEXAS.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 51 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 20 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOOD
STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV




000
FXUS64 KBRO 282340 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
640 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING RIGHT NOW...WITH MVFR EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN FIRING OVER THE NEARBY
HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...BUT THIS IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE THREE MAJOR AERODROMES TONIGHT. VFR WILL RESUME
TOMORROW WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS. CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW...AS SOME MODELS INDICATE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ISOLATED
AREAS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND A RIDGE OVERHEAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA
INTO ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOR POPS.

THE 500MB TROUGH OVER ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BIG BEND REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CONVECTION NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BUT
THE LATEST NAM AND THE 18Z HRRR BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TODAY. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WEST...ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF AREA ON FRIDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR TONIGHT...AND A
MARGINAL RISK AREA WIDE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES SATURDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD SUNDAY BEFORE CUTTING OFF AS A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RETROGRADING
SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND REACHING THE TX COAST LINE SUNDAY BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR INCREASES ACROSS
SOUTH TX WITH THE INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE WEST OF THE CLOSED 500MB
LOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALLOWS SEABREEZE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS
AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WILL INTERACT WITH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON LAGUNA MADRE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
FOR STRONGER WINDS. A MODERATE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONDITIONS SEAS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN LIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS WEST TEXAS.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 51 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 20 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOOD
STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KBRO 282340
AFDBRO
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
640 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING RIGHT NOW...WITH MVFR EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN FIRING OVER THE NEARBY
HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...BUT THIS IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE THREE MAJOR AERODROMES TONIGHT. VFR WILL RESUME
TOMORROW WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS. CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW...AS SOME MODELS INDICATE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ISOLATED
AREAS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND A RIDGE OVERHEAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA
INTO ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOR POPS.

THE 500MB TROUGH OVER ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BIG BEND REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CONVECTION NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BUT
THE LATEST NAM AND THE 18Z HRRR BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TODAY. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WEST...ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF AREA ON FRIDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR TONIGHT...AND A
MARGINAL RISK AREA WIDE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES SATURDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD SUNDAY BEFORE CUTTING OFF AS A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RETROGRADING
SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND REACHING THE TX COAST LINE SUNDAY BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR INCREASES ACROSS
SOUTH TX WITH THE INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE WEST OF THE CLOSED 500MB
LOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALLOWS SEABREEZE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS
AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WILL INTERACT WITH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON LAGUNA MADRE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
FOR STRONGER WINDS. A MODERATE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONDITIONS SEAS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN LIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS WEST TEXAS.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 51 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 20 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOOD
STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV






000
FXUS64 KBRO 282046
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
346 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND A RIDGE OVERHEAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA
INTO ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOR POPS.

THE 500MB TROUGH OVER ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BIG BEND REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CONVECTION NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BUT
THE LATEST NAM AND THE 18Z HRRR BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TODAY. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WEST...ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF AREA ON FRIDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR TONIGHT...AND A
MARGINAL RISK AREA WIDE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES SATURDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD SUNDAY BEFORE CUTTING OFF AS A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RETROGRADING
SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND REACHING THE TX COAST LINE SUNDAY BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR INCREASES ACROSS
SOUTH TX WITH THE INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE WEST OF THE CLOSED 500MB
LOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALLOWS SEABREEZE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS
AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WILL INTERACT WITH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON LAGUNA MADRE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
FOR STRONGER WINDS. A MODERATE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONDITIONS SEAS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN LIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 51 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 20 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOOD
STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  89  79  89 /  10  20  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          79  90  77  91 /  10  20  10  20
HARLINGEN            78  92  75  92 /  10  30  10  20
MCALLEN              78  94  76  93 /  10  20  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  93  76  95 /  20  20  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  85  80  87 /  10  20  10  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63/61/BIRCHFIELD




000
FXUS64 KBRO 282046
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
346 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND A RIDGE OVERHEAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA
INTO ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOR POPS.

THE 500MB TROUGH OVER ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BIG BEND REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CONVECTION NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BUT
THE LATEST NAM AND THE 18Z HRRR BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TODAY. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WEST...ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF AREA ON FRIDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR TONIGHT...AND A
MARGINAL RISK AREA WIDE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES SATURDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD SUNDAY BEFORE CUTTING OFF AS A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RETROGRADING
SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND REACHING THE TX COAST LINE SUNDAY BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR INCREASES ACROSS
SOUTH TX WITH THE INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE WEST OF THE CLOSED 500MB
LOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALLOWS SEABREEZE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS
AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WILL INTERACT WITH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON LAGUNA MADRE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
FOR STRONGER WINDS. A MODERATE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONDITIONS SEAS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN LIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 51 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 20 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOOD
STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  89  79  89 /  10  20  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          79  90  77  91 /  10  20  10  20
HARLINGEN            78  92  75  92 /  10  30  10  20
MCALLEN              78  94  76  93 /  10  20  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  93  76  95 /  20  20  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  85  80  87 /  10  20  10  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63/61/BIRCHFIELD





000
FXUS64 KBRO 281733
AFDBRO
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1233 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...LATEST BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OF HIDALGO COUNTIES AND ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP AND A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE. MADE A QUICK
UPDATE TO MENTION ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-69C/HWY 281.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...SOUTHWEST OF MFE. WILL MENTION VCTS FOR
MFE THROUGH 19Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER 02Z.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63






000
FXUS64 KBRO 281733 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1233 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...LATEST BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OF HIDALGO COUNTIES AND ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP AND A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE. MADE A QUICK
UPDATE TO MENTION ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-69C/HWY 281.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...SOUTHWEST OF MFE. WILL MENTION VCTS FOR
MFE THROUGH 19Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER 02Z.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 281138
AFDBRO
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
638 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MVFR AND
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED STREAMER
SHOWERS ARE TRACKING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND MAY BRIEFLY BE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AIR TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z. CLOUDS TO BREAK UP
AND LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM IS THE POP FORECAST. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW ARIZONA TO NEW MEXICO TRACKING
NORTHEAST OVER THE RIDGE PARKED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS
SUGGEST THE RIDGE GETS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS TEXAS FRIDAY.

TODAY...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IN
FROM THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
LOWER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...MORNING CLOUDS TO MIX OUT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL WITH UPPER 80 TO MID 90S. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS PRESSURE
BEGIN TO LOWER OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE STATE BUT
MODEL PLACEMENT IS FARTHER NORTH AND TIMING OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR MCS THAT DEVELOPS ARE LIKELY TO TRACK
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES VERY LOW POPS
FOR MOST AREAS WITH 20-30 PERCENT JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
WHICH LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH CURRENT THINKING. WITH THAT SAID
SPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD BRUSHED MARGINAL RISK AREA THAT
COVERS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OVER PLAYED AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES INTO A WEAK CAPPED AND
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ANY STORMS OR MCS THAT DO FORM ARE LIKELY TO
TRACK JUST NORTH OR ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER OVER THE
RANCHLANDS. DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET 25-35 KNOTS COULD
SUSTAIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS WELL PASS MIDNIGHT WHICH IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST AND MODEL OUTPUT.

FRIDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO LIE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND ANY
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
MAYBE EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN HIDALGO IN THE MORNING. ANY LEFT OVER
CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS 850-700MB COOLS SLIGHTLY. THIS MIGHT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON INCREASING POPS TO WILL
BE MAINTAINING LOW POPS WITH MOISTURE DEPTH AND VALUES MUCH LOWER
THEN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES
AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE TRACKING EASTWARD WITH MUCH BETTER
DIVERGENCE PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST. MODELS OUTPUT REMAINS
CONSISTENT KEEPING POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH. ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK IS INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA BUT THIS SEEMS OVER DONE AS WELL BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A ROUGE
STORM WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 J/KG RANGE AND THE DECAYING
CAP.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WITH A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE OZARKS AND SLOWLY
RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE TAIL END OF A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY TUESDAY. RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND BEING UNDERCUT
BY A PROGGED TROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERTOPPING AND BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

MOISTURE WILL POOL IN THE LOW LEVELS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BUT PWATS
ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING SATURDAY ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY AND WEAK...A GOOD SETUP FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...AM RELUCTANT TO GO
ANY HIGHER ON POPS DUE TO PWATS OF 1.5 SUNDAY AND 1.3 MONDAY.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS AS IS AND COULD LOWER FOR MONDAY WITH
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. DRIER AIR CONTINUES MOVING IN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SO NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH INCREASED CLOUDS A CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MEX GUIDANCE AND CLIMO. WITH DRIER AIR AND LESS
CLOUD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NUDGED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS MEX GUIDANCE
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...PRESSURES LOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES INTO TEXAS. THE LOWER PRESSURE TO COMBINE WITH THE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF PROVIDE A MODERATE TO
MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
LAGUNA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THE MODERATE FETCH TO MAINTAIN MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT CONDITION SEAS TODAY AND FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DECREASING EASTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS WIND DECREASE SO
WILL THE SEA HEIGHTS FROM 3-5 FEET SATURDAY TO NEAR 2 FEET BY
MONDAY. FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  88  79  89  79 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          90  79  90  77 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            91  78  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
MCALLEN              93  78  94  76 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      93  76  93  76 /  10  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  80  85  80 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/55






000
FXUS64 KBRO 281138 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
638 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MVFR AND
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED STREAMER
SHOWERS ARE TRACKING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND MAY BRIEFLY BE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AIR TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z. CLOUDS TO BREAK UP
AND LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM IS THE POP FORECAST. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW ARIZONA TO NEW MEXICO TRACKING
NORTHEAST OVER THE RIDGE PARKED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS
SUGGEST THE RIDGE GETS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS TEXAS FRIDAY.

TODAY...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IN
FROM THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
LOWER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...MORNING CLOUDS TO MIX OUT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL WITH UPPER 80 TO MID 90S. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS PRESSURE
BEGIN TO LOWER OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE STATE BUT
MODEL PLACEMENT IS FARTHER NORTH AND TIMING OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR MCS THAT DEVELOPS ARE LIKELY TO TRACK
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES VERY LOW POPS
FOR MOST AREAS WITH 20-30 PERCENT JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
WHICH LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH CURRENT THINKING. WITH THAT SAID
SPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD BRUSHED MARGINAL RISK AREA THAT
COVERS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OVER PLAYED AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES INTO A WEAK CAPPED AND
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ANY STORMS OR MCS THAT DO FORM ARE LIKELY TO
TRACK JUST NORTH OR ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER OVER THE
RANCHLANDS. DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET 25-35 KNOTS COULD
SUSTAIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS WELL PASS MIDNIGHT WHICH IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST AND MODEL OUTPUT.

FRIDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO LIE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND ANY
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
MAYBE EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN HIDALGO IN THE MORNING. ANY LEFT OVER
CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS 850-700MB COOLS SLIGHTLY. THIS MIGHT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON INCREASING POPS TO WILL
BE MAINTAINING LOW POPS WITH MOISTURE DEPTH AND VALUES MUCH LOWER
THEN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES
AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE TRACKING EASTWARD WITH MUCH BETTER
DIVERGENCE PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST. MODELS OUTPUT REMAINS
CONSISTENT KEEPING POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH. ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK IS INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA BUT THIS SEEMS OVER DONE AS WELL BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A ROUGE
STORM WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 J/KG RANGE AND THE DECAYING
CAP.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WITH A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE OZARKS AND SLOWLY
RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE TAIL END OF A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY TUESDAY. RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND BEING UNDERCUT
BY A PROGGED TROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERTOPPING AND BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

MOISTURE WILL POOL IN THE LOW LEVELS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BUT PWATS
ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING SATURDAY ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY AND WEAK...A GOOD SETUP FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...AM RELUCTANT TO GO
ANY HIGHER ON POPS DUE TO PWATS OF 1.5 SUNDAY AND 1.3 MONDAY.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS AS IS AND COULD LOWER FOR MONDAY WITH
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. DRIER AIR CONTINUES MOVING IN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SO NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH INCREASED CLOUDS A CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MEX GUIDANCE AND CLIMO. WITH DRIER AIR AND LESS
CLOUD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NUDGED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS MEX GUIDANCE
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...PRESSURES LOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES INTO TEXAS. THE LOWER PRESSURE TO COMBINE WITH THE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF PROVIDE A MODERATE TO
MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
LAGUNA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THE MODERATE FETCH TO MAINTAIN MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT CONDITION SEAS TODAY AND FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DECREASING EASTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS WIND DECREASE SO
WILL THE SEA HEIGHTS FROM 3-5 FEET SATURDAY TO NEAR 2 FEET BY
MONDAY. FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  88  79  89  79 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          90  79  90  77 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            91  78  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
MCALLEN              93  78  94  76 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      93  76  93  76 /  10  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  80  85  80 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/55





000
FXUS64 KBRO 281138
AFDBRO
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
638 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MVFR AND
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED STREAMER
SHOWERS ARE TRACKING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND MAY BRIEFLY BE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AIR TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z. CLOUDS TO BREAK UP
AND LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM IS THE POP FORECAST. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW ARIZONA TO NEW MEXICO TRACKING
NORTHEAST OVER THE RIDGE PARKED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS
SUGGEST THE RIDGE GETS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS TEXAS FRIDAY.

TODAY...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IN
FROM THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
LOWER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...MORNING CLOUDS TO MIX OUT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL WITH UPPER 80 TO MID 90S. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS PRESSURE
BEGIN TO LOWER OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE STATE BUT
MODEL PLACEMENT IS FARTHER NORTH AND TIMING OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR MCS THAT DEVELOPS ARE LIKELY TO TRACK
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES VERY LOW POPS
FOR MOST AREAS WITH 20-30 PERCENT JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
WHICH LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH CURRENT THINKING. WITH THAT SAID
SPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD BRUSHED MARGINAL RISK AREA THAT
COVERS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OVER PLAYED AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES INTO A WEAK CAPPED AND
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ANY STORMS OR MCS THAT DO FORM ARE LIKELY TO
TRACK JUST NORTH OR ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER OVER THE
RANCHLANDS. DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET 25-35 KNOTS COULD
SUSTAIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS WELL PASS MIDNIGHT WHICH IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST AND MODEL OUTPUT.

FRIDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO LIE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND ANY
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
MAYBE EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN HIDALGO IN THE MORNING. ANY LEFT OVER
CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS 850-700MB COOLS SLIGHTLY. THIS MIGHT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON INCREASING POPS TO WILL
BE MAINTAINING LOW POPS WITH MOISTURE DEPTH AND VALUES MUCH LOWER
THEN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES
AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE TRACKING EASTWARD WITH MUCH BETTER
DIVERGENCE PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST. MODELS OUTPUT REMAINS
CONSISTENT KEEPING POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH. ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK IS INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA BUT THIS SEEMS OVER DONE AS WELL BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A ROUGE
STORM WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 J/KG RANGE AND THE DECAYING
CAP.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WITH A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE OZARKS AND SLOWLY
RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE TAIL END OF A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY TUESDAY. RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND BEING UNDERCUT
BY A PROGGED TROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERTOPPING AND BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

MOISTURE WILL POOL IN THE LOW LEVELS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BUT PWATS
ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING SATURDAY ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY AND WEAK...A GOOD SETUP FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...AM RELUCTANT TO GO
ANY HIGHER ON POPS DUE TO PWATS OF 1.5 SUNDAY AND 1.3 MONDAY.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS AS IS AND COULD LOWER FOR MONDAY WITH
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. DRIER AIR CONTINUES MOVING IN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SO NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH INCREASED CLOUDS A CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MEX GUIDANCE AND CLIMO. WITH DRIER AIR AND LESS
CLOUD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NUDGED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS MEX GUIDANCE
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...PRESSURES LOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES INTO TEXAS. THE LOWER PRESSURE TO COMBINE WITH THE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF PROVIDE A MODERATE TO
MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
LAGUNA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THE MODERATE FETCH TO MAINTAIN MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT CONDITION SEAS TODAY AND FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DECREASING EASTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS WIND DECREASE SO
WILL THE SEA HEIGHTS FROM 3-5 FEET SATURDAY TO NEAR 2 FEET BY
MONDAY. FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  88  79  89  79 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          90  79  90  77 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            91  78  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
MCALLEN              93  78  94  76 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      93  76  93  76 /  10  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  80  85  80 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/55






000
FXUS64 KBRO 281138 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
638 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MVFR AND
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED STREAMER
SHOWERS ARE TRACKING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND MAY BRIEFLY BE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AIR TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z. CLOUDS TO BREAK UP
AND LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM IS THE POP FORECAST. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW ARIZONA TO NEW MEXICO TRACKING
NORTHEAST OVER THE RIDGE PARKED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS
SUGGEST THE RIDGE GETS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS TEXAS FRIDAY.

TODAY...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IN
FROM THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
LOWER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...MORNING CLOUDS TO MIX OUT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL WITH UPPER 80 TO MID 90S. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS PRESSURE
BEGIN TO LOWER OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE STATE BUT
MODEL PLACEMENT IS FARTHER NORTH AND TIMING OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR MCS THAT DEVELOPS ARE LIKELY TO TRACK
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES VERY LOW POPS
FOR MOST AREAS WITH 20-30 PERCENT JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
WHICH LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH CURRENT THINKING. WITH THAT SAID
SPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD BRUSHED MARGINAL RISK AREA THAT
COVERS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OVER PLAYED AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES INTO A WEAK CAPPED AND
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ANY STORMS OR MCS THAT DO FORM ARE LIKELY TO
TRACK JUST NORTH OR ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER OVER THE
RANCHLANDS. DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET 25-35 KNOTS COULD
SUSTAIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS WELL PASS MIDNIGHT WHICH IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST AND MODEL OUTPUT.

FRIDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO LIE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND ANY
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
MAYBE EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN HIDALGO IN THE MORNING. ANY LEFT OVER
CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS 850-700MB COOLS SLIGHTLY. THIS MIGHT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON INCREASING POPS TO WILL
BE MAINTAINING LOW POPS WITH MOISTURE DEPTH AND VALUES MUCH LOWER
THEN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES
AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE TRACKING EASTWARD WITH MUCH BETTER
DIVERGENCE PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST. MODELS OUTPUT REMAINS
CONSISTENT KEEPING POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH. ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK IS INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA BUT THIS SEEMS OVER DONE AS WELL BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A ROUGE
STORM WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 J/KG RANGE AND THE DECAYING
CAP.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WITH A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE OZARKS AND SLOWLY
RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE TAIL END OF A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY TUESDAY. RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND BEING UNDERCUT
BY A PROGGED TROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERTOPPING AND BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

MOISTURE WILL POOL IN THE LOW LEVELS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BUT PWATS
ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING SATURDAY ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY AND WEAK...A GOOD SETUP FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...AM RELUCTANT TO GO
ANY HIGHER ON POPS DUE TO PWATS OF 1.5 SUNDAY AND 1.3 MONDAY.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS AS IS AND COULD LOWER FOR MONDAY WITH
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. DRIER AIR CONTINUES MOVING IN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SO NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH INCREASED CLOUDS A CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MEX GUIDANCE AND CLIMO. WITH DRIER AIR AND LESS
CLOUD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NUDGED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS MEX GUIDANCE
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...PRESSURES LOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES INTO TEXAS. THE LOWER PRESSURE TO COMBINE WITH THE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF PROVIDE A MODERATE TO
MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
LAGUNA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THE MODERATE FETCH TO MAINTAIN MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT CONDITION SEAS TODAY AND FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DECREASING EASTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS WIND DECREASE SO
WILL THE SEA HEIGHTS FROM 3-5 FEET SATURDAY TO NEAR 2 FEET BY
MONDAY. FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  88  79  89  79 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          90  79  90  77 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            91  78  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
MCALLEN              93  78  94  76 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      93  76  93  76 /  10  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  80  85  80 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/55




000
FXUS64 KBRO 281138 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
638 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MVFR AND
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED STREAMER
SHOWERS ARE TRACKING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND MAY BRIEFLY BE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AIR TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z. CLOUDS TO BREAK UP
AND LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM IS THE POP FORECAST. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW ARIZONA TO NEW MEXICO TRACKING
NORTHEAST OVER THE RIDGE PARKED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS
SUGGEST THE RIDGE GETS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS TEXAS FRIDAY.

TODAY...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IN
FROM THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
LOWER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...MORNING CLOUDS TO MIX OUT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL WITH UPPER 80 TO MID 90S. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS PRESSURE
BEGIN TO LOWER OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE STATE BUT
MODEL PLACEMENT IS FARTHER NORTH AND TIMING OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR MCS THAT DEVELOPS ARE LIKELY TO TRACK
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES VERY LOW POPS
FOR MOST AREAS WITH 20-30 PERCENT JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
WHICH LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH CURRENT THINKING. WITH THAT SAID
SPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD BRUSHED MARGINAL RISK AREA THAT
COVERS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OVER PLAYED AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES INTO A WEAK CAPPED AND
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ANY STORMS OR MCS THAT DO FORM ARE LIKELY TO
TRACK JUST NORTH OR ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER OVER THE
RANCHLANDS. DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET 25-35 KNOTS COULD
SUSTAIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS WELL PASS MIDNIGHT WHICH IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST AND MODEL OUTPUT.

FRIDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO LIE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND ANY
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
MAYBE EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN HIDALGO IN THE MORNING. ANY LEFT OVER
CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS 850-700MB COOLS SLIGHTLY. THIS MIGHT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON INCREASING POPS TO WILL
BE MAINTAINING LOW POPS WITH MOISTURE DEPTH AND VALUES MUCH LOWER
THEN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES
AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE TRACKING EASTWARD WITH MUCH BETTER
DIVERGENCE PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST. MODELS OUTPUT REMAINS
CONSISTENT KEEPING POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH. ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK IS INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA BUT THIS SEEMS OVER DONE AS WELL BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A ROUGE
STORM WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 J/KG RANGE AND THE DECAYING
CAP.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WITH A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE OZARKS AND SLOWLY
RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE TAIL END OF A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY TUESDAY. RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND BEING UNDERCUT
BY A PROGGED TROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERTOPPING AND BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

MOISTURE WILL POOL IN THE LOW LEVELS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BUT PWATS
ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING SATURDAY ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY AND WEAK...A GOOD SETUP FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...AM RELUCTANT TO GO
ANY HIGHER ON POPS DUE TO PWATS OF 1.5 SUNDAY AND 1.3 MONDAY.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS AS IS AND COULD LOWER FOR MONDAY WITH
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. DRIER AIR CONTINUES MOVING IN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SO NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH INCREASED CLOUDS A CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MEX GUIDANCE AND CLIMO. WITH DRIER AIR AND LESS
CLOUD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NUDGED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS MEX GUIDANCE
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...PRESSURES LOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES INTO TEXAS. THE LOWER PRESSURE TO COMBINE WITH THE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF PROVIDE A MODERATE TO
MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
LAGUNA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THE MODERATE FETCH TO MAINTAIN MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT CONDITION SEAS TODAY AND FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DECREASING EASTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS WIND DECREASE SO
WILL THE SEA HEIGHTS FROM 3-5 FEET SATURDAY TO NEAR 2 FEET BY
MONDAY. FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  88  79  89  79 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          90  79  90  77 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            91  78  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
MCALLEN              93  78  94  76 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      93  76  93  76 /  10  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  80  85  80 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/55




000
FXUS64 KBRO 281138 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
638 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MVFR AND
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED STREAMER
SHOWERS ARE TRACKING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND MAY BRIEFLY BE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AIR TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z. CLOUDS TO BREAK UP
AND LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM IS THE POP FORECAST. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW ARIZONA TO NEW MEXICO TRACKING
NORTHEAST OVER THE RIDGE PARKED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS
SUGGEST THE RIDGE GETS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS TEXAS FRIDAY.

TODAY...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IN
FROM THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
LOWER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...MORNING CLOUDS TO MIX OUT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL WITH UPPER 80 TO MID 90S. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS PRESSURE
BEGIN TO LOWER OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE STATE BUT
MODEL PLACEMENT IS FARTHER NORTH AND TIMING OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR MCS THAT DEVELOPS ARE LIKELY TO TRACK
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES VERY LOW POPS
FOR MOST AREAS WITH 20-30 PERCENT JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
WHICH LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH CURRENT THINKING. WITH THAT SAID
SPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD BRUSHED MARGINAL RISK AREA THAT
COVERS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OVER PLAYED AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES INTO A WEAK CAPPED AND
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ANY STORMS OR MCS THAT DO FORM ARE LIKELY TO
TRACK JUST NORTH OR ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER OVER THE
RANCHLANDS. DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET 25-35 KNOTS COULD
SUSTAIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS WELL PASS MIDNIGHT WHICH IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST AND MODEL OUTPUT.

FRIDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO LIE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND ANY
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
MAYBE EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN HIDALGO IN THE MORNING. ANY LEFT OVER
CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS 850-700MB COOLS SLIGHTLY. THIS MIGHT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON INCREASING POPS TO WILL
BE MAINTAINING LOW POPS WITH MOISTURE DEPTH AND VALUES MUCH LOWER
THEN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES
AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE TRACKING EASTWARD WITH MUCH BETTER
DIVERGENCE PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST. MODELS OUTPUT REMAINS
CONSISTENT KEEPING POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH. ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK IS INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA BUT THIS SEEMS OVER DONE AS WELL BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A ROUGE
STORM WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 J/KG RANGE AND THE DECAYING
CAP.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WITH A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE OZARKS AND SLOWLY
RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE TAIL END OF A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY TUESDAY. RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND BEING UNDERCUT
BY A PROGGED TROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERTOPPING AND BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

MOISTURE WILL POOL IN THE LOW LEVELS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BUT PWATS
ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING SATURDAY ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY AND WEAK...A GOOD SETUP FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...AM RELUCTANT TO GO
ANY HIGHER ON POPS DUE TO PWATS OF 1.5 SUNDAY AND 1.3 MONDAY.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS AS IS AND COULD LOWER FOR MONDAY WITH
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. DRIER AIR CONTINUES MOVING IN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SO NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH INCREASED CLOUDS A CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MEX GUIDANCE AND CLIMO. WITH DRIER AIR AND LESS
CLOUD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NUDGED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS MEX GUIDANCE
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...PRESSURES LOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES INTO TEXAS. THE LOWER PRESSURE TO COMBINE WITH THE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF PROVIDE A MODERATE TO
MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
LAGUNA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THE MODERATE FETCH TO MAINTAIN MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT CONDITION SEAS TODAY AND FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DECREASING EASTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS WIND DECREASE SO
WILL THE SEA HEIGHTS FROM 3-5 FEET SATURDAY TO NEAR 2 FEET BY
MONDAY. FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  88  79  89  79 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          90  79  90  77 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            91  78  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
MCALLEN              93  78  94  76 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      93  76  93  76 /  10  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  80  85  80 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/55





000
FXUS64 KBRO 280856
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
356 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM IS THE POP FORECAST. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW ARIZONA TO NEW MEXICO TRACKING
NORTHEAST OVER THE RIDGE PARKED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS
SUGGEST THE RIDGE GETS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS TEXAS FRIDAY.

TODAY...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IN
FROM THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
LOWER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...MORNING CLOUDS TO MIX OUT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL WITH UPPER 80 TO MID 90S. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS PRESSURE
BEGIN TO LOWER OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE STATE BUT
MODEL PLACEMENT IS FARTHER NORTH AND TIMING OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR MCS THAT DEVELOPS ARE LIKELY TO TRACK
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES VERY LOW POPS
FOR MOST AREAS WITH 20-30 PERCENT JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
WHICH LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH CURRENT THINKING. WITH THAT SAID
SPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD BRUSHED MARGINAL RISK AREA THAT
COVERS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OVER PLAYED AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES INTO A WEAK CAPPED AND
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ANY STORMS OR MCS THAT DO FORM ARE LIKELY TO
TRACK JUST NORTH OR ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER OVER THE
RANCHLANDS. DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET 25-35 KNOTS COULD
SUSTAIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS WELL PASS MIDNIGHT WHICH IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST AND MODEL OUTPUT.

FRIDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO LIE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND ANY
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
MAYBE EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN HIDALGO IN THE MORNING. ANY LEFT OVER
CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS 850-700MB COOLS SLIGHTLY. THIS MIGHT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON INCREASING POPS TO WILL
BE MAINTAINING LOW POPS WITH MOISTURE DEPTH AND VALUES MUCH LOWER
THEN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES
AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE TRACKING EASTWARD WITH MUCH BETTER
DIVERGENCE PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST. MODELS OUTPUT REMAINS
CONSISTENT KEEPING POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH. ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK IS INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA BUT THIS SEEMS OVER DONE AS WELL BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A ROUGE
STORM WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 J/KG RANGE AND THE DECAYING
CAP.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WITH A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE OZARKS AND SLOWLY
RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE TAIL END OF A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY TUESDAY. RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND BEING UNDERCUT
BY A PROGGED TROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERTOPPING AND BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

MOISTURE WILL POOL IN THE LOW LEVELS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BUT PWATS
ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING SATURDAY ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY AND WEAK...A GOOD SETUP FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...AM RELUCTANT TO GO
ANY HIGHER ON POPS DUE TO PWATS OF 1.5 SUNDAY AND 1.3 MONDAY.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS AS IS AND COULD LOWER FOR MONDAY WITH
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. DRIER AIR CONTINUES MOVING IN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SO NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH INCREASED CLOUDS A CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MEX GUIDANCE AND CLIMO. WITH DRIER AIR AND LESS
CLOUD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NUDGED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS MEX GUIDANCE
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...PRESSURES LOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES INTO TEXAS. THE LOWER PRESSURE TO COMBINE WITH THE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF PROVIDE A MODERATE TO
MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
LAGUNA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THE MODERATE FETCH TO MAINTAIN MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT CONDITION SEAS TODAY AND FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DECREASING EASTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS WIND DECREASE SO
WILL THE SEA HEIGHTS FROM 3-5 FEET SATURDAY TO NEAR 2 FEET BY
MONDAY. FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  88  79  89  79 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          90  79  90  77 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            91  78  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
MCALLEN              93  78  94  76 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      93  76  93  76 /  10  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  80  85  80 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...59
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BILLINGS




000
FXUS64 KBRO 280856
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
356 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM IS THE POP FORECAST. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW ARIZONA TO NEW MEXICO TRACKING
NORTHEAST OVER THE RIDGE PARKED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS
SUGGEST THE RIDGE GETS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS TEXAS FRIDAY.

TODAY...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IN
FROM THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
LOWER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...MORNING CLOUDS TO MIX OUT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL WITH UPPER 80 TO MID 90S. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS PRESSURE
BEGIN TO LOWER OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE STATE BUT
MODEL PLACEMENT IS FARTHER NORTH AND TIMING OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR MCS THAT DEVELOPS ARE LIKELY TO TRACK
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES VERY LOW POPS
FOR MOST AREAS WITH 20-30 PERCENT JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
WHICH LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH CURRENT THINKING. WITH THAT SAID
SPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD BRUSHED MARGINAL RISK AREA THAT
COVERS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OVER PLAYED AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES INTO A WEAK CAPPED AND
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ANY STORMS OR MCS THAT DO FORM ARE LIKELY TO
TRACK JUST NORTH OR ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER OVER THE
RANCHLANDS. DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET 25-35 KNOTS COULD
SUSTAIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS WELL PASS MIDNIGHT WHICH IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST AND MODEL OUTPUT.

FRIDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO LIE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND ANY
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
MAYBE EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN HIDALGO IN THE MORNING. ANY LEFT OVER
CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS 850-700MB COOLS SLIGHTLY. THIS MIGHT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON INCREASING POPS TO WILL
BE MAINTAINING LOW POPS WITH MOISTURE DEPTH AND VALUES MUCH LOWER
THEN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES
AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE TRACKING EASTWARD WITH MUCH BETTER
DIVERGENCE PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST. MODELS OUTPUT REMAINS
CONSISTENT KEEPING POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH. ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK IS INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA BUT THIS SEEMS OVER DONE AS WELL BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A ROUGE
STORM WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 J/KG RANGE AND THE DECAYING
CAP.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WITH A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE OZARKS AND SLOWLY
RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE TAIL END OF A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY TUESDAY. RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND BEING UNDERCUT
BY A PROGGED TROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERTOPPING AND BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

MOISTURE WILL POOL IN THE LOW LEVELS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BUT PWATS
ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING SATURDAY ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY AND WEAK...A GOOD SETUP FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...AM RELUCTANT TO GO
ANY HIGHER ON POPS DUE TO PWATS OF 1.5 SUNDAY AND 1.3 MONDAY.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS AS IS AND COULD LOWER FOR MONDAY WITH
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. DRIER AIR CONTINUES MOVING IN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SO NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH INCREASED CLOUDS A CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MEX GUIDANCE AND CLIMO. WITH DRIER AIR AND LESS
CLOUD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NUDGED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS MEX GUIDANCE
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...PRESSURES LOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES INTO TEXAS. THE LOWER PRESSURE TO COMBINE WITH THE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF PROVIDE A MODERATE TO
MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
LAGUNA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THE MODERATE FETCH TO MAINTAIN MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT CONDITION SEAS TODAY AND FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DECREASING EASTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS WIND DECREASE SO
WILL THE SEA HEIGHTS FROM 3-5 FEET SATURDAY TO NEAR 2 FEET BY
MONDAY. FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  88  79  89  79 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          90  79  90  77 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            91  78  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
MCALLEN              93  78  94  76 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      93  76  93  76 /  10  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  80  85  80 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...59
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BILLINGS





000
FXUS64 KBRO 280856
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
356 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM IS THE POP FORECAST. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW ARIZONA TO NEW MEXICO TRACKING
NORTHEAST OVER THE RIDGE PARKED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS
SUGGEST THE RIDGE GETS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS TEXAS FRIDAY.

TODAY...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IN
FROM THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
LOWER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...MORNING CLOUDS TO MIX OUT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL WITH UPPER 80 TO MID 90S. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS PRESSURE
BEGIN TO LOWER OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE STATE BUT
MODEL PLACEMENT IS FARTHER NORTH AND TIMING OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR MCS THAT DEVELOPS ARE LIKELY TO TRACK
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES VERY LOW POPS
FOR MOST AREAS WITH 20-30 PERCENT JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
WHICH LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH CURRENT THINKING. WITH THAT SAID
SPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD BRUSHED MARGINAL RISK AREA THAT
COVERS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OVER PLAYED AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES INTO A WEAK CAPPED AND
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ANY STORMS OR MCS THAT DO FORM ARE LIKELY TO
TRACK JUST NORTH OR ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER OVER THE
RANCHLANDS. DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET 25-35 KNOTS COULD
SUSTAIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS WELL PASS MIDNIGHT WHICH IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST AND MODEL OUTPUT.

FRIDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO LIE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND ANY
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
MAYBE EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN HIDALGO IN THE MORNING. ANY LEFT OVER
CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS 850-700MB COOLS SLIGHTLY. THIS MIGHT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON INCREASING POPS TO WILL
BE MAINTAINING LOW POPS WITH MOISTURE DEPTH AND VALUES MUCH LOWER
THEN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES
AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE TRACKING EASTWARD WITH MUCH BETTER
DIVERGENCE PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST. MODELS OUTPUT REMAINS
CONSISTENT KEEPING POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH. ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK IS INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA BUT THIS SEEMS OVER DONE AS WELL BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A ROUGE
STORM WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 J/KG RANGE AND THE DECAYING
CAP.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WITH A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE OZARKS AND SLOWLY
RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE TAIL END OF A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY TUESDAY. RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND BEING UNDERCUT
BY A PROGGED TROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERTOPPING AND BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

MOISTURE WILL POOL IN THE LOW LEVELS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BUT PWATS
ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING SATURDAY ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY AND WEAK...A GOOD SETUP FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...AM RELUCTANT TO GO
ANY HIGHER ON POPS DUE TO PWATS OF 1.5 SUNDAY AND 1.3 MONDAY.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS AS IS AND COULD LOWER FOR MONDAY WITH
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. DRIER AIR CONTINUES MOVING IN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SO NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH INCREASED CLOUDS A CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MEX GUIDANCE AND CLIMO. WITH DRIER AIR AND LESS
CLOUD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NUDGED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS MEX GUIDANCE
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...PRESSURES LOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES INTO TEXAS. THE LOWER PRESSURE TO COMBINE WITH THE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF PROVIDE A MODERATE TO
MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
LAGUNA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THE MODERATE FETCH TO MAINTAIN MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT CONDITION SEAS TODAY AND FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DECREASING EASTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS WIND DECREASE SO
WILL THE SEA HEIGHTS FROM 3-5 FEET SATURDAY TO NEAR 2 FEET BY
MONDAY. FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  88  79  89  79 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          90  79  90  77 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            91  78  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
MCALLEN              93  78  94  76 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      93  76  93  76 /  10  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  80  85  80 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...59
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BILLINGS





000
FXUS64 KBRO 280856
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
356 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM IS THE POP FORECAST. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW ARIZONA TO NEW MEXICO TRACKING
NORTHEAST OVER THE RIDGE PARKED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS
SUGGEST THE RIDGE GETS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS TEXAS FRIDAY.

TODAY...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IN
FROM THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
LOWER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...MORNING CLOUDS TO MIX OUT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL WITH UPPER 80 TO MID 90S. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS PRESSURE
BEGIN TO LOWER OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE STATE BUT
MODEL PLACEMENT IS FARTHER NORTH AND TIMING OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR MCS THAT DEVELOPS ARE LIKELY TO TRACK
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES VERY LOW POPS
FOR MOST AREAS WITH 20-30 PERCENT JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
WHICH LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH CURRENT THINKING. WITH THAT SAID
SPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD BRUSHED MARGINAL RISK AREA THAT
COVERS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OVER PLAYED AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES INTO A WEAK CAPPED AND
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ANY STORMS OR MCS THAT DO FORM ARE LIKELY TO
TRACK JUST NORTH OR ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER OVER THE
RANCHLANDS. DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET 25-35 KNOTS COULD
SUSTAIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS WELL PASS MIDNIGHT WHICH IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST AND MODEL OUTPUT.

FRIDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO LIE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND ANY
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
MAYBE EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN HIDALGO IN THE MORNING. ANY LEFT OVER
CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS 850-700MB COOLS SLIGHTLY. THIS MIGHT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON INCREASING POPS TO WILL
BE MAINTAINING LOW POPS WITH MOISTURE DEPTH AND VALUES MUCH LOWER
THEN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES
AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE TRACKING EASTWARD WITH MUCH BETTER
DIVERGENCE PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST. MODELS OUTPUT REMAINS
CONSISTENT KEEPING POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH. ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK IS INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA BUT THIS SEEMS OVER DONE AS WELL BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A ROUGE
STORM WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 J/KG RANGE AND THE DECAYING
CAP.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WITH A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE OZARKS AND SLOWLY
RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE TAIL END OF A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY TUESDAY. RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND BEING UNDERCUT
BY A PROGGED TROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERTOPPING AND BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

MOISTURE WILL POOL IN THE LOW LEVELS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BUT PWATS
ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING SATURDAY ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY AND WEAK...A GOOD SETUP FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...AM RELUCTANT TO GO
ANY HIGHER ON POPS DUE TO PWATS OF 1.5 SUNDAY AND 1.3 MONDAY.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS AS IS AND COULD LOWER FOR MONDAY WITH
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. DRIER AIR CONTINUES MOVING IN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SO NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH INCREASED CLOUDS A CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MEX GUIDANCE AND CLIMO. WITH DRIER AIR AND LESS
CLOUD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NUDGED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS MEX GUIDANCE
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...PRESSURES LOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES INTO TEXAS. THE LOWER PRESSURE TO COMBINE WITH THE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF PROVIDE A MODERATE TO
MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
LAGUNA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THE MODERATE FETCH TO MAINTAIN MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT CONDITION SEAS TODAY AND FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DECREASING EASTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS WIND DECREASE SO
WILL THE SEA HEIGHTS FROM 3-5 FEET SATURDAY TO NEAR 2 FEET BY
MONDAY. FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  88  79  89  79 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          90  79  90  77 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            91  78  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
MCALLEN              93  78  94  76 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      93  76  93  76 /  10  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  80  85  80 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...59
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BILLINGS




000
FXUS64 KBRO 280547
AFDBRO
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1247 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR TO BECOME A BIT MORE SOLID OVERNIGHT
IMPACTING THE THREE TERMINALS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1000-2500 FEET.
THE LOWER CLOUDS TO PARTIALLY MIX OUT AND RISE WITH GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER
HIGH WITH MVFR CIGS RESUMING LATER THURSDAY EVENING. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WIND PREVAIL WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON A
SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING AT THE AERODROMES RIGHT NOW WITH
MODERATE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CEILINGS BETWEEN 3K AND 4K FEET.
MVFR WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD DECKS FALLING TO NEAR 2K
FEET AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. VFR WILL QUICKLY RESUME AFTER
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS AND CEILINGS NEAR 5K
FEET...MORE OR LESS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...WITH A SETTLING EFFECT ON THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EDGING EAST
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...DEVELOPING PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND WEST TEXAS...WITH ENERGY ALOFT MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
SPC BUMPS THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UP TO MARGINAL FOR THE AREA ON DAY
TWO...AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER LINE
OF STORMS ON THE DRY LINE...WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE BIG BEND...OR A
SECONDARY CLUSTER FARTHER EAST...LATE THURSDAY...AND MAY PROPAGATE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO KEEP A
MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPPER VALLEY THU
NIGHT.

OTHER ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM ARE SEASONAL AND FAIRLY BENIGN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 95 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 75 TO
80. LOOK FOR LIGHT NIGHTTIME TO MODERATE AND GUSTY DAYTIME SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. COASTAL STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE EARLY MORNING. THE FORECAST PWAT OF AN INCH AND A HALF WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG A
SEA BREEZE...BUT A WEAK WIND SHIFT WON`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE GLOBAL MODELS PROG A
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS A LINE OF CONVECTION POSSIBLY
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX LATE THURS NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING
AND PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN RANCHANDS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TX SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...MAINTAINING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN THE SHORT TERM. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS PSBL
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE...AND ON THE LAGUNA THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
AND BACK TO THE EAST SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH TX.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 50
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 19 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET SUNDAY EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR
LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE LOWEST
SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER FORECASTS FOR
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED
RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/99






000
FXUS64 KBRO 280547 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1247 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR TO BECOME A BIT MORE SOLID OVERNIGHT
IMPACTING THE THREE TERMINALS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1000-2500 FEET.
THE LOWER CLOUDS TO PARTIALLY MIX OUT AND RISE WITH GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER
HIGH WITH MVFR CIGS RESUMING LATER THURSDAY EVENING. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WIND PREVAIL WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON A
SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING AT THE AERODROMES RIGHT NOW WITH
MODERATE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CEILINGS BETWEEN 3K AND 4K FEET.
MVFR WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD DECKS FALLING TO NEAR 2K
FEET AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. VFR WILL QUICKLY RESUME AFTER
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS AND CEILINGS NEAR 5K
FEET...MORE OR LESS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...WITH A SETTLING EFFECT ON THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EDGING EAST
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...DEVELOPING PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND WEST TEXAS...WITH ENERGY ALOFT MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
SPC BUMPS THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UP TO MARGINAL FOR THE AREA ON DAY
TWO...AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER LINE
OF STORMS ON THE DRY LINE...WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE BIG BEND...OR A
SECONDARY CLUSTER FARTHER EAST...LATE THURSDAY...AND MAY PROPAGATE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO KEEP A
MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPPER VALLEY THU
NIGHT.

OTHER ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM ARE SEASONAL AND FAIRLY BENIGN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 95 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 75 TO
80. LOOK FOR LIGHT NIGHTTIME TO MODERATE AND GUSTY DAYTIME SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. COASTAL STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE EARLY MORNING. THE FORECAST PWAT OF AN INCH AND A HALF WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG A
SEA BREEZE...BUT A WEAK WIND SHIFT WON`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE GLOBAL MODELS PROG A
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS A LINE OF CONVECTION POSSIBLY
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX LATE THURS NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING
AND PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN RANCHANDS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TX SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...MAINTAINING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN THE SHORT TERM. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS PSBL
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE...AND ON THE LAGUNA THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
AND BACK TO THE EAST SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH TX.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 50
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 19 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET SUNDAY EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR
LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE LOWEST
SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER FORECASTS FOR
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED
RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/99




000
FXUS64 KBRO 280547 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1247 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR TO BECOME A BIT MORE SOLID OVERNIGHT
IMPACTING THE THREE TERMINALS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1000-2500 FEET.
THE LOWER CLOUDS TO PARTIALLY MIX OUT AND RISE WITH GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER
HIGH WITH MVFR CIGS RESUMING LATER THURSDAY EVENING. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WIND PREVAIL WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON A
SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING AT THE AERODROMES RIGHT NOW WITH
MODERATE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CEILINGS BETWEEN 3K AND 4K FEET.
MVFR WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD DECKS FALLING TO NEAR 2K
FEET AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. VFR WILL QUICKLY RESUME AFTER
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS AND CEILINGS NEAR 5K
FEET...MORE OR LESS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...WITH A SETTLING EFFECT ON THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EDGING EAST
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...DEVELOPING PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND WEST TEXAS...WITH ENERGY ALOFT MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
SPC BUMPS THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UP TO MARGINAL FOR THE AREA ON DAY
TWO...AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER LINE
OF STORMS ON THE DRY LINE...WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE BIG BEND...OR A
SECONDARY CLUSTER FARTHER EAST...LATE THURSDAY...AND MAY PROPAGATE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO KEEP A
MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPPER VALLEY THU
NIGHT.

OTHER ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM ARE SEASONAL AND FAIRLY BENIGN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 95 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 75 TO
80. LOOK FOR LIGHT NIGHTTIME TO MODERATE AND GUSTY DAYTIME SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. COASTAL STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE EARLY MORNING. THE FORECAST PWAT OF AN INCH AND A HALF WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG A
SEA BREEZE...BUT A WEAK WIND SHIFT WON`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE GLOBAL MODELS PROG A
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS A LINE OF CONVECTION POSSIBLY
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX LATE THURS NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING
AND PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN RANCHANDS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TX SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...MAINTAINING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN THE SHORT TERM. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS PSBL
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE...AND ON THE LAGUNA THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
AND BACK TO THE EAST SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH TX.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 50
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 19 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET SUNDAY EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR
LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE LOWEST
SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER FORECASTS FOR
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED
RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/99





000
FXUS64 KBRO 280547 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1247 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR TO BECOME A BIT MORE SOLID OVERNIGHT
IMPACTING THE THREE TERMINALS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1000-2500 FEET.
THE LOWER CLOUDS TO PARTIALLY MIX OUT AND RISE WITH GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER
HIGH WITH MVFR CIGS RESUMING LATER THURSDAY EVENING. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WIND PREVAIL WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON A
SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING AT THE AERODROMES RIGHT NOW WITH
MODERATE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CEILINGS BETWEEN 3K AND 4K FEET.
MVFR WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD DECKS FALLING TO NEAR 2K
FEET AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. VFR WILL QUICKLY RESUME AFTER
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS AND CEILINGS NEAR 5K
FEET...MORE OR LESS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...WITH A SETTLING EFFECT ON THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EDGING EAST
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...DEVELOPING PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND WEST TEXAS...WITH ENERGY ALOFT MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
SPC BUMPS THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UP TO MARGINAL FOR THE AREA ON DAY
TWO...AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER LINE
OF STORMS ON THE DRY LINE...WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE BIG BEND...OR A
SECONDARY CLUSTER FARTHER EAST...LATE THURSDAY...AND MAY PROPAGATE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO KEEP A
MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPPER VALLEY THU
NIGHT.

OTHER ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM ARE SEASONAL AND FAIRLY BENIGN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 95 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 75 TO
80. LOOK FOR LIGHT NIGHTTIME TO MODERATE AND GUSTY DAYTIME SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. COASTAL STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE EARLY MORNING. THE FORECAST PWAT OF AN INCH AND A HALF WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG A
SEA BREEZE...BUT A WEAK WIND SHIFT WON`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE GLOBAL MODELS PROG A
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS A LINE OF CONVECTION POSSIBLY
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX LATE THURS NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING
AND PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN RANCHANDS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TX SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...MAINTAINING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN THE SHORT TERM. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS PSBL
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE...AND ON THE LAGUNA THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
AND BACK TO THE EAST SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH TX.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 50
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 19 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET SUNDAY EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR
LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE LOWEST
SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER FORECASTS FOR
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED
RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/99





000
FXUS64 KBRO 280547
AFDBRO
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1247 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR TO BECOME A BIT MORE SOLID OVERNIGHT
IMPACTING THE THREE TERMINALS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1000-2500 FEET.
THE LOWER CLOUDS TO PARTIALLY MIX OUT AND RISE WITH GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER
HIGH WITH MVFR CIGS RESUMING LATER THURSDAY EVENING. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WIND PREVAIL WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON A
SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING AT THE AERODROMES RIGHT NOW WITH
MODERATE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CEILINGS BETWEEN 3K AND 4K FEET.
MVFR WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD DECKS FALLING TO NEAR 2K
FEET AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. VFR WILL QUICKLY RESUME AFTER
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS AND CEILINGS NEAR 5K
FEET...MORE OR LESS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...WITH A SETTLING EFFECT ON THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EDGING EAST
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...DEVELOPING PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND WEST TEXAS...WITH ENERGY ALOFT MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
SPC BUMPS THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UP TO MARGINAL FOR THE AREA ON DAY
TWO...AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER LINE
OF STORMS ON THE DRY LINE...WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE BIG BEND...OR A
SECONDARY CLUSTER FARTHER EAST...LATE THURSDAY...AND MAY PROPAGATE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO KEEP A
MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPPER VALLEY THU
NIGHT.

OTHER ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM ARE SEASONAL AND FAIRLY BENIGN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 95 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 75 TO
80. LOOK FOR LIGHT NIGHTTIME TO MODERATE AND GUSTY DAYTIME SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. COASTAL STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE EARLY MORNING. THE FORECAST PWAT OF AN INCH AND A HALF WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG A
SEA BREEZE...BUT A WEAK WIND SHIFT WON`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE GLOBAL MODELS PROG A
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS A LINE OF CONVECTION POSSIBLY
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX LATE THURS NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING
AND PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN RANCHANDS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TX SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...MAINTAINING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN THE SHORT TERM. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS PSBL
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE...AND ON THE LAGUNA THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
AND BACK TO THE EAST SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH TX.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 50
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 19 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET SUNDAY EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR
LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE LOWEST
SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER FORECASTS FOR
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED
RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/99






000
FXUS64 KBRO 272335 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
635 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING AT THE AERODROMES RIGHT NOW WITH
MODERATE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CEILINGS BETWEEN 3K AND 4K FEET.
MVFR WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD DECKS FALLING TO NEAR 2K
FEET AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. VFR WILL QUICKLY RESUME AFTER
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS AND CEILINGS NEAR 5K
FEET...MORE OR LESS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...WITH A SETTLING EFFECT ON THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EDGING EAST
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...DEVELOPING PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND WEST TEXAS...WITH ENERGY ALOFT MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
SPC BUMPS THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UP TO MARGINAL FOR THE AREA ON DAY
TWO...AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER LINE
OF STORMS ON THE DRY LINE...WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE BIG BEND...OR A
SECONDARY CLUSTER FARTHER EAST...LATE THURSDAY...AND MAY PROPAGATE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO KEEP A
MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPPER VALLEY THU
NIGHT.

OTHER ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM ARE SEASONAL AND FAIRLY BENIGN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 95 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 75 TO
80. LOOK FOR LIGHT NIGHTTIME TO MODERATE AND GUSTY DAYTIME SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. COASTAL STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE EARLY MORNING. THE FORECAST PWAT OF AN INCH AND A HALF WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG A
SEA BREEZE...BUT A WEAK WIND SHIFT WON`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE GLOBAL MODELS PROG A
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS A LINE OF CONVECTION POSSIBLY
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX LATE THURS NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING
AND PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN RANCHANDS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TX SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...MAINTAINING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN THE SHORT TERM. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS PSBL
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE...AND ON THE LAGUNA THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
AND BACK TO THE EAST SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH TX.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 50
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 19 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET SUNDAY EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR
LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE LOWEST
SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER FORECASTS FOR
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED
RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KBRO 272335 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
635 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING AT THE AERODROMES RIGHT NOW WITH
MODERATE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CEILINGS BETWEEN 3K AND 4K FEET.
MVFR WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD DECKS FALLING TO NEAR 2K
FEET AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. VFR WILL QUICKLY RESUME AFTER
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS AND CEILINGS NEAR 5K
FEET...MORE OR LESS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...WITH A SETTLING EFFECT ON THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EDGING EAST
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...DEVELOPING PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND WEST TEXAS...WITH ENERGY ALOFT MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
SPC BUMPS THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UP TO MARGINAL FOR THE AREA ON DAY
TWO...AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER LINE
OF STORMS ON THE DRY LINE...WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE BIG BEND...OR A
SECONDARY CLUSTER FARTHER EAST...LATE THURSDAY...AND MAY PROPAGATE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO KEEP A
MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPPER VALLEY THU
NIGHT.

OTHER ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM ARE SEASONAL AND FAIRLY BENIGN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 95 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 75 TO
80. LOOK FOR LIGHT NIGHTTIME TO MODERATE AND GUSTY DAYTIME SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. COASTAL STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE EARLY MORNING. THE FORECAST PWAT OF AN INCH AND A HALF WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG A
SEA BREEZE...BUT A WEAK WIND SHIFT WON`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE GLOBAL MODELS PROG A
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS A LINE OF CONVECTION POSSIBLY
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX LATE THURS NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING
AND PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN RANCHANDS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TX SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...MAINTAINING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN THE SHORT TERM. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS PSBL
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE...AND ON THE LAGUNA THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
AND BACK TO THE EAST SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH TX.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 50
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 19 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET SUNDAY EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR
LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE LOWEST
SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER FORECASTS FOR
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED
RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KBRO 272335 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
635 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING AT THE AERODROMES RIGHT NOW WITH
MODERATE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CEILINGS BETWEEN 3K AND 4K FEET.
MVFR WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD DECKS FALLING TO NEAR 2K
FEET AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. VFR WILL QUICKLY RESUME AFTER
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS AND CEILINGS NEAR 5K
FEET...MORE OR LESS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...WITH A SETTLING EFFECT ON THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EDGING EAST
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...DEVELOPING PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND WEST TEXAS...WITH ENERGY ALOFT MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
SPC BUMPS THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UP TO MARGINAL FOR THE AREA ON DAY
TWO...AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER LINE
OF STORMS ON THE DRY LINE...WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE BIG BEND...OR A
SECONDARY CLUSTER FARTHER EAST...LATE THURSDAY...AND MAY PROPAGATE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO KEEP A
MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPPER VALLEY THU
NIGHT.

OTHER ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM ARE SEASONAL AND FAIRLY BENIGN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 95 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 75 TO
80. LOOK FOR LIGHT NIGHTTIME TO MODERATE AND GUSTY DAYTIME SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. COASTAL STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE EARLY MORNING. THE FORECAST PWAT OF AN INCH AND A HALF WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG A
SEA BREEZE...BUT A WEAK WIND SHIFT WON`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE GLOBAL MODELS PROG A
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS A LINE OF CONVECTION POSSIBLY
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX LATE THURS NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING
AND PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN RANCHANDS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TX SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...MAINTAINING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN THE SHORT TERM. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS PSBL
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE...AND ON THE LAGUNA THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
AND BACK TO THE EAST SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH TX.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 50
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 19 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET SUNDAY EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR
LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE LOWEST
SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER FORECASTS FOR
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED
RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV




000
FXUS64 KBRO 272335
AFDBRO
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
635 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING AT THE AERODROMES RIGHT NOW WITH
MODERATE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CEILINGS BETWEEN 3K AND 4K FEET.
MVFR WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD DECKS FALLING TO NEAR 2K
FEET AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. VFR WILL QUICKLY RESUME AFTER
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS AND CEILINGS NEAR 5K
FEET...MORE OR LESS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...WITH A SETTLING EFFECT ON THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EDGING EAST
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...DEVELOPING PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND WEST TEXAS...WITH ENERGY ALOFT MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
SPC BUMPS THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UP TO MARGINAL FOR THE AREA ON DAY
TWO...AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER LINE
OF STORMS ON THE DRY LINE...WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE BIG BEND...OR A
SECONDARY CLUSTER FARTHER EAST...LATE THURSDAY...AND MAY PROPAGATE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO KEEP A
MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPPER VALLEY THU
NIGHT.

OTHER ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM ARE SEASONAL AND FAIRLY BENIGN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 95 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 75 TO
80. LOOK FOR LIGHT NIGHTTIME TO MODERATE AND GUSTY DAYTIME SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. COASTAL STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE EARLY MORNING. THE FORECAST PWAT OF AN INCH AND A HALF WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG A
SEA BREEZE...BUT A WEAK WIND SHIFT WON`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE GLOBAL MODELS PROG A
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS A LINE OF CONVECTION POSSIBLY
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX LATE THURS NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING
AND PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN RANCHANDS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TX SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...MAINTAINING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN THE SHORT TERM. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS PSBL
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE...AND ON THE LAGUNA THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
AND BACK TO THE EAST SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH TX.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 50
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 19 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET SUNDAY EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR
LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE LOWEST
SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER FORECASTS FOR
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED
RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV






000
FXUS64 KBRO 272335
AFDBRO
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
635 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING AT THE AERODROMES RIGHT NOW WITH
MODERATE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CEILINGS BETWEEN 3K AND 4K FEET.
MVFR WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD DECKS FALLING TO NEAR 2K
FEET AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. VFR WILL QUICKLY RESUME AFTER
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS AND CEILINGS NEAR 5K
FEET...MORE OR LESS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...WITH A SETTLING EFFECT ON THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EDGING EAST
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...DEVELOPING PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND WEST TEXAS...WITH ENERGY ALOFT MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
SPC BUMPS THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UP TO MARGINAL FOR THE AREA ON DAY
TWO...AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER LINE
OF STORMS ON THE DRY LINE...WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE BIG BEND...OR A
SECONDARY CLUSTER FARTHER EAST...LATE THURSDAY...AND MAY PROPAGATE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO KEEP A
MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPPER VALLEY THU
NIGHT.

OTHER ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM ARE SEASONAL AND FAIRLY BENIGN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 95 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 75 TO
80. LOOK FOR LIGHT NIGHTTIME TO MODERATE AND GUSTY DAYTIME SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. COASTAL STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE EARLY MORNING. THE FORECAST PWAT OF AN INCH AND A HALF WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG A
SEA BREEZE...BUT A WEAK WIND SHIFT WON`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE GLOBAL MODELS PROG A
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS A LINE OF CONVECTION POSSIBLY
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX LATE THURS NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING
AND PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN RANCHANDS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TX SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...MAINTAINING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN THE SHORT TERM. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS PSBL
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE...AND ON THE LAGUNA THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
AND BACK TO THE EAST SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH TX.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 50
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 19 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET SUNDAY EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR
LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE LOWEST
SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER FORECASTS FOR
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED
RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV






000
FXUS64 KBRO 272007
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
307 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...WITH A SETTLING EFFECT ON THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EDGING EAST
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...DEVELOPING PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND WEST TEXAS...WITH ENERGY ALOFT MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
SPC BUMPS THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UP TO MARGINAL FOR THE AREA ON DAY
TWO...AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER LINE
OF STORMS ON THE DRY LINE...WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE BIG BEND...OR A
SECONDARY CLUSTER FARTHER EAST...LATE THURSDAY...AND MAY PROPAGATE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO KEEP A
MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPPER VALLEY THU
NIGHT.

OTHER ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM ARE SEASONAL AND FAIRLY BENIGN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 95 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 75 TO
80. LOOK FOR LIGHT NIGHTTIME TO MODERATE AND GUSTY DAYTIME SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. COASTAL STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE EARLY MORNING. THE FORECAST PWAT OF AN INCH AND A HALF WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG A
SEA BREEZE...BUT A WEAK WIND SHIFT WON`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE GLOBAL MODELS PROG A
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS A LINE OF CONVECTION POSSIBLY
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX LATE THURS NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING
AND PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN RANCHANDS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TX SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...MAINTAINING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN THE SHORT TERM. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS PSBL
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE...AND ON THE LAGUNA THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
AND BACK TO THE EAST SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH TX.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 50
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 19 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET SUNDAY EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR
LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE LOWEST
SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER FORECASTS FOR
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED
RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  86  79  88 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          79  88  78  89 /  10  10  10  20
HARLINGEN            78  90  77  92 /  10  10  10  20
MCALLEN              79  92  78  93 /  10  10  10  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  92  76  96 /  10  10  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  84  79  86 /  10  10  20  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/61




000
FXUS64 KBRO 272007
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
307 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...WITH A SETTLING EFFECT ON THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EDGING EAST
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...DEVELOPING PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND WEST TEXAS...WITH ENERGY ALOFT MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
SPC BUMPS THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UP TO MARGINAL FOR THE AREA ON DAY
TWO...AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER LINE
OF STORMS ON THE DRY LINE...WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE BIG BEND...OR A
SECONDARY CLUSTER FARTHER EAST...LATE THURSDAY...AND MAY PROPAGATE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO KEEP A
MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPPER VALLEY THU
NIGHT.

OTHER ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM ARE SEASONAL AND FAIRLY BENIGN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 95 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 75 TO
80. LOOK FOR LIGHT NIGHTTIME TO MODERATE AND GUSTY DAYTIME SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. COASTAL STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE EARLY MORNING. THE FORECAST PWAT OF AN INCH AND A HALF WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG A
SEA BREEZE...BUT A WEAK WIND SHIFT WON`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE GLOBAL MODELS PROG A
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS A LINE OF CONVECTION POSSIBLY
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX LATE THURS NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING
AND PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN RANCHANDS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TX SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...MAINTAINING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN THE SHORT TERM. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS PSBL
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE...AND ON THE LAGUNA THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
AND BACK TO THE EAST SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH TX.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 50
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 19 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET SUNDAY EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR
LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE LOWEST
SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER FORECASTS FOR
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED
RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  86  79  88 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          79  88  78  89 /  10  10  10  20
HARLINGEN            78  90  77  92 /  10  10  10  20
MCALLEN              79  92  78  93 /  10  10  10  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  92  76  96 /  10  10  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  84  79  86 /  10  10  20  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/61





000
FXUS64 KBRO 271640 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1140 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING AND
MOVING NORTHWEST ON A MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WIND. ONLY HRL
HAS AN MVFR CEILING AT THIS WRITING. THIS IS A VERY TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF PROVIDING THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC FRAMEWORK. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT
LATE THIS EVENING AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AS A NOCTURNAL
INVERSION OR MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SETS UP. AN ISOLATED
STREAMER SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL HELP MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALLOW CEILINGS TO
INCREASE ABOVE MVFR DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE MAJORITY OF MVFR CIGS HAVE DISSIPATED PRIOR TO
SUNRISE WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OR THIN LINES OF THE LOWER CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT SCT-BKN VFR CU FIELD BY MID TO
LATE MORNING BECOMING SCT IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING.
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE BUILDING OF THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE
MAINTAINING A RELATIVE SPEAKING RAIN FREE FORECAST. INCREASING
HEIGHTS AND WARMING OF 850-700MB LEVELS BUILDS A MODEST CAP OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA KEEPING POP CHANCES VERY LOW. BELOW THE CAP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AOB 850MB REMAINS HIGH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE
WARM GULF TO KEEP OUR DEW POINTS AT MID SUMMER VALUES. THE MODEST
SOUTHERLY 925-850MB WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS AND THE GULF WATER TEMPS
AROUND 80-81 DEGREES COULD BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF A LIMITED STREAMER
SHOWERS. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE LOWER VALLEY BOTH THIS
AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND PROBABLY
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AS WAS THE CASE TUESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME
HEATING TO MIX OUT ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIR CONSISTENCY MAINTAINING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF THE
EARLY SUMMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL DEW POINTS TO
COMBINE PUSHING THE HEAT INDICES OVER THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST
LOCALS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 C/281.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS THE NEXT TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...AN EMBEDDED VORT LOBE WILL BE
WRAPPING THROUGH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALL MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THE TAIL END SWEEPS THROUGH THE WESTERN VALLEY
FRIDAY MORNING. CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG ACROSS THE VALLEY...SO
WILL ONLY KEEP LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WHILE H5 RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...THE NWLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH
THIS AGITATION IN THE REGION...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY DRIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST GETS MORE DIFFICULT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS TRY
TO DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AND ALSO PRODUCE VARYING TROPICAL DISTURBANCES IN THE
EPAC. WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE LOCALLY...WILL HOLD ON TO LOW
POP CHANCES FOR NOW...MAINLY SEABREEZE VARIETY SHOWERS...WAITING
FOR MORE CONSISTENCY IN MODEL OUTPUTS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERMAL GRADIENT SUFFICIENT FOR
MODERATE TO MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS TO
CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SEAS ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WITH A COMBINED SEA AND SCEC ANTICIPATED ON THE
LAGUNA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS PRESSURES
LOWER OVER WESTERN TEXAS WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH. A
FEW STREAMER SHOWERS LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ARE EXPECTED BUT
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STEADILY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM AS THE DOMINANT SFC HIGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN SEABOARD GETS FORCED FURTHER EASTWARD BY A COLD FRONT.
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS EXPECTED THURSDAY WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 10
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO FALL FROM 5 FEET DOWN TO
AROUND 2 FEET.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/59




000
FXUS64 KBRO 271640 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1140 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING AND
MOVING NORTHWEST ON A MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WIND. ONLY HRL
HAS AN MVFR CEILING AT THIS WRITING. THIS IS A VERY TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF PROVIDING THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC FRAMEWORK. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT
LATE THIS EVENING AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AS A NOCTURNAL
INVERSION OR MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SETS UP. AN ISOLATED
STREAMER SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL HELP MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALLOW CEILINGS TO
INCREASE ABOVE MVFR DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE MAJORITY OF MVFR CIGS HAVE DISSIPATED PRIOR TO
SUNRISE WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OR THIN LINES OF THE LOWER CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT SCT-BKN VFR CU FIELD BY MID TO
LATE MORNING BECOMING SCT IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING.
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE BUILDING OF THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE
MAINTAINING A RELATIVE SPEAKING RAIN FREE FORECAST. INCREASING
HEIGHTS AND WARMING OF 850-700MB LEVELS BUILDS A MODEST CAP OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA KEEPING POP CHANCES VERY LOW. BELOW THE CAP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AOB 850MB REMAINS HIGH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE
WARM GULF TO KEEP OUR DEW POINTS AT MID SUMMER VALUES. THE MODEST
SOUTHERLY 925-850MB WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS AND THE GULF WATER TEMPS
AROUND 80-81 DEGREES COULD BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF A LIMITED STREAMER
SHOWERS. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE LOWER VALLEY BOTH THIS
AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND PROBABLY
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AS WAS THE CASE TUESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME
HEATING TO MIX OUT ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIR CONSISTENCY MAINTAINING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF THE
EARLY SUMMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL DEW POINTS TO
COMBINE PUSHING THE HEAT INDICES OVER THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST
LOCALS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 C/281.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS THE NEXT TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...AN EMBEDDED VORT LOBE WILL BE
WRAPPING THROUGH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALL MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THE TAIL END SWEEPS THROUGH THE WESTERN VALLEY
FRIDAY MORNING. CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG ACROSS THE VALLEY...SO
WILL ONLY KEEP LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WHILE H5 RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...THE NWLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH
THIS AGITATION IN THE REGION...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY DRIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST GETS MORE DIFFICULT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS TRY
TO DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AND ALSO PRODUCE VARYING TROPICAL DISTURBANCES IN THE
EPAC. WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE LOCALLY...WILL HOLD ON TO LOW
POP CHANCES FOR NOW...MAINLY SEABREEZE VARIETY SHOWERS...WAITING
FOR MORE CONSISTENCY IN MODEL OUTPUTS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERMAL GRADIENT SUFFICIENT FOR
MODERATE TO MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS TO
CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SEAS ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WITH A COMBINED SEA AND SCEC ANTICIPATED ON THE
LAGUNA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS PRESSURES
LOWER OVER WESTERN TEXAS WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH. A
FEW STREAMER SHOWERS LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ARE EXPECTED BUT
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STEADILY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM AS THE DOMINANT SFC HIGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN SEABOARD GETS FORCED FURTHER EASTWARD BY A COLD FRONT.
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS EXPECTED THURSDAY WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 10
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO FALL FROM 5 FEET DOWN TO
AROUND 2 FEET.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/59





000
FXUS64 KBRO 271640
AFDBRO
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1140 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING AND
MOVING NORTHWEST ON A MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WIND. ONLY HRL
HAS AN MVFR CEILING AT THIS WRITING. THIS IS A VERY TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF PROVIDING THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC FRAMEWORK. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT
LATE THIS EVENING AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AS A NOCTURNAL
INVERSION OR MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SETS UP. AN ISOLATED
STREAMER SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL HELP MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALLOW CEILINGS TO
INCREASE ABOVE MVFR DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE MAJORITY OF MVFR CIGS HAVE DISSIPATED PRIOR TO
SUNRISE WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OR THIN LINES OF THE LOWER CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT SCT-BKN VFR CU FIELD BY MID TO
LATE MORNING BECOMING SCT IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING.
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE BUILDING OF THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE
MAINTAINING A RELATIVE SPEAKING RAIN FREE FORECAST. INCREASING
HEIGHTS AND WARMING OF 850-700MB LEVELS BUILDS A MODEST CAP OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA KEEPING POP CHANCES VERY LOW. BELOW THE CAP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AOB 850MB REMAINS HIGH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE
WARM GULF TO KEEP OUR DEW POINTS AT MID SUMMER VALUES. THE MODEST
SOUTHERLY 925-850MB WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS AND THE GULF WATER TEMPS
AROUND 80-81 DEGREES COULD BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF A LIMITED STREAMER
SHOWERS. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE LOWER VALLEY BOTH THIS
AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND PROBABLY
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AS WAS THE CASE TUESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME
HEATING TO MIX OUT ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIR CONSISTENCY MAINTAINING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF THE
EARLY SUMMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL DEW POINTS TO
COMBINE PUSHING THE HEAT INDICES OVER THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST
LOCALS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 C/281.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS THE NEXT TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...AN EMBEDDED VORT LOBE WILL BE
WRAPPING THROUGH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALL MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THE TAIL END SWEEPS THROUGH THE WESTERN VALLEY
FRIDAY MORNING. CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG ACROSS THE VALLEY...SO
WILL ONLY KEEP LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WHILE H5 RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...THE NWLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH
THIS AGITATION IN THE REGION...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY DRIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST GETS MORE DIFFICULT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS TRY
TO DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AND ALSO PRODUCE VARYING TROPICAL DISTURBANCES IN THE
EPAC. WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE LOCALLY...WILL HOLD ON TO LOW
POP CHANCES FOR NOW...MAINLY SEABREEZE VARIETY SHOWERS...WAITING
FOR MORE CONSISTENCY IN MODEL OUTPUTS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERMAL GRADIENT SUFFICIENT FOR
MODERATE TO MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS TO
CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SEAS ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WITH A COMBINED SEA AND SCEC ANTICIPATED ON THE
LAGUNA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS PRESSURES
LOWER OVER WESTERN TEXAS WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH. A
FEW STREAMER SHOWERS LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ARE EXPECTED BUT
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STEADILY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM AS THE DOMINANT SFC HIGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN SEABOARD GETS FORCED FURTHER EASTWARD BY A COLD FRONT.
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS EXPECTED THURSDAY WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 10
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO FALL FROM 5 FEET DOWN TO
AROUND 2 FEET.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/59






000
FXUS64 KBRO 271640
AFDBRO
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1140 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING AND
MOVING NORTHWEST ON A MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WIND. ONLY HRL
HAS AN MVFR CEILING AT THIS WRITING. THIS IS A VERY TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF PROVIDING THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC FRAMEWORK. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT
LATE THIS EVENING AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AS A NOCTURNAL
INVERSION OR MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SETS UP. AN ISOLATED
STREAMER SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL HELP MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALLOW CEILINGS TO
INCREASE ABOVE MVFR DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE MAJORITY OF MVFR CIGS HAVE DISSIPATED PRIOR TO
SUNRISE WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OR THIN LINES OF THE LOWER CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT SCT-BKN VFR CU FIELD BY MID TO
LATE MORNING BECOMING SCT IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING.
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE BUILDING OF THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE
MAINTAINING A RELATIVE SPEAKING RAIN FREE FORECAST. INCREASING
HEIGHTS AND WARMING OF 850-700MB LEVELS BUILDS A MODEST CAP OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA KEEPING POP CHANCES VERY LOW. BELOW THE CAP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AOB 850MB REMAINS HIGH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE
WARM GULF TO KEEP OUR DEW POINTS AT MID SUMMER VALUES. THE MODEST
SOUTHERLY 925-850MB WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS AND THE GULF WATER TEMPS
AROUND 80-81 DEGREES COULD BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF A LIMITED STREAMER
SHOWERS. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE LOWER VALLEY BOTH THIS
AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND PROBABLY
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AS WAS THE CASE TUESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME
HEATING TO MIX OUT ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIR CONSISTENCY MAINTAINING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF THE
EARLY SUMMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL DEW POINTS TO
COMBINE PUSHING THE HEAT INDICES OVER THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST
LOCALS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 C/281.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS THE NEXT TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...AN EMBEDDED VORT LOBE WILL BE
WRAPPING THROUGH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALL MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THE TAIL END SWEEPS THROUGH THE WESTERN VALLEY
FRIDAY MORNING. CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG ACROSS THE VALLEY...SO
WILL ONLY KEEP LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WHILE H5 RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...THE NWLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH
THIS AGITATION IN THE REGION...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY DRIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST GETS MORE DIFFICULT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS TRY
TO DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AND ALSO PRODUCE VARYING TROPICAL DISTURBANCES IN THE
EPAC. WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE LOCALLY...WILL HOLD ON TO LOW
POP CHANCES FOR NOW...MAINLY SEABREEZE VARIETY SHOWERS...WAITING
FOR MORE CONSISTENCY IN MODEL OUTPUTS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERMAL GRADIENT SUFFICIENT FOR
MODERATE TO MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS TO
CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SEAS ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WITH A COMBINED SEA AND SCEC ANTICIPATED ON THE
LAGUNA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS PRESSURES
LOWER OVER WESTERN TEXAS WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH. A
FEW STREAMER SHOWERS LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ARE EXPECTED BUT
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STEADILY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM AS THE DOMINANT SFC HIGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN SEABOARD GETS FORCED FURTHER EASTWARD BY A COLD FRONT.
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS EXPECTED THURSDAY WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 10
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO FALL FROM 5 FEET DOWN TO
AROUND 2 FEET.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/59






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