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000
FXUS64 KBRO 032343 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
643 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...DAYTIME CUMULUS FIELD SLOWLY DISSIPATING WITH THE COOL
OF THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INITIATES A STRATUS DECK PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
MVFR CIGS AND TEMPO CONDITIONS OF MVFR VSBY A FEW HOURS EITHER
SIDE OF SUNRISE BEFORE A TYPICAL VFR CUMULUS FIELD SPREADS
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. SOUTHEAST WINDS RELAX TONIGHT WITH A 25
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING. THIS JET TO MIX TO THE SURFACE
MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING PRODUCING GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE TAIL EDGE OF THE
H5 TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS...
KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES FROM COMPLETELY ENDING...BUT ALSO KEEPING
THE BLAZING HEAT AWAY FROM THE REGION. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE NWWD INTO THE REGION...BUT IS NOT OVERLY DEEP. A BRIEF SURGE
MAY REACH SOUTH TX EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS...
BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LOWER OUT WEST
TOMORROW...SO TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN INCH UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
90S WEST OF US281. MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE DISSIPATED BY SUNSET
SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD FIREWORKS VIEWING
AREAWIDE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A BROAD HEIGHT FIELD WILL
EXTEND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL WEATHER. DAILY
PWAT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES...RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL...YET GENERALLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WEAK SEA BREEZE SHOWERS.
THE SYNOPTIC FLOW MAY ALSO BRING ISOL OVERNIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS
UP FROM THE SOUTH. DESPITE THESE POSSIBILITIES...RAIN CHANCE
PROBABILITY WILL BE LOW AND WILL BE ADVERTISED AS SILENT.

LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT...
WHICH WILL SUPPORT MODERATE AS OPPOSED TO LIGHT WINDS LOCALLY.
THE LOWER PRESSURE WILL HANG ON INTO MID WEEK EVEN AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. BY
MID TO LATE WEEK...591 DM HEIGHTS WILL STRETCH FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TEXAS AND THE LOWER SOUTHEAST.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF AND NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST...BUT THE SIGNIFICANCE
WILL BE MUTED. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL BE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEK...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MARINE NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS WERE SLOWLY INCHING
UPWARDS THIS MORNING BUT HAVE NOW STEADIED IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RELAX SLIGHTLY IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT
RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS...CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SEAS AROUND 4 FEET. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN TOMORROW...BUT WILL SWIFTLY MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROAD 1016 TO 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN A PRESENCE OVER THE GULF...RESULTING IN MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE GULF AT NIGHT AND ON THE LAGUNA DURING THE DAY...
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED
STREAMER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE EACH NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  91  78  90 /   0  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  78  91 /   0  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            77  96  77  93 /   0  20  10  10
MCALLEN              77  96  77  95 /   0  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  98  76  98 /   0  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  88  79  87 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/61




000
FXUS64 KBRO 032343 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
643 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...DAYTIME CUMULUS FIELD SLOWLY DISSIPATING WITH THE COOL
OF THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INITIATES A STRATUS DECK PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
MVFR CIGS AND TEMPO CONDITIONS OF MVFR VSBY A FEW HOURS EITHER
SIDE OF SUNRISE BEFORE A TYPICAL VFR CUMULUS FIELD SPREADS
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. SOUTHEAST WINDS RELAX TONIGHT WITH A 25
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING. THIS JET TO MIX TO THE SURFACE
MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING PRODUCING GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE TAIL EDGE OF THE
H5 TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS...
KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES FROM COMPLETELY ENDING...BUT ALSO KEEPING
THE BLAZING HEAT AWAY FROM THE REGION. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE NWWD INTO THE REGION...BUT IS NOT OVERLY DEEP. A BRIEF SURGE
MAY REACH SOUTH TX EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS...
BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LOWER OUT WEST
TOMORROW...SO TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN INCH UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
90S WEST OF US281. MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE DISSIPATED BY SUNSET
SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD FIREWORKS VIEWING
AREAWIDE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A BROAD HEIGHT FIELD WILL
EXTEND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL WEATHER. DAILY
PWAT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES...RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL...YET GENERALLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WEAK SEA BREEZE SHOWERS.
THE SYNOPTIC FLOW MAY ALSO BRING ISOL OVERNIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS
UP FROM THE SOUTH. DESPITE THESE POSSIBILITIES...RAIN CHANCE
PROBABILITY WILL BE LOW AND WILL BE ADVERTISED AS SILENT.

LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT...
WHICH WILL SUPPORT MODERATE AS OPPOSED TO LIGHT WINDS LOCALLY.
THE LOWER PRESSURE WILL HANG ON INTO MID WEEK EVEN AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. BY
MID TO LATE WEEK...591 DM HEIGHTS WILL STRETCH FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TEXAS AND THE LOWER SOUTHEAST.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF AND NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST...BUT THE SIGNIFICANCE
WILL BE MUTED. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL BE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEK...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MARINE NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS WERE SLOWLY INCHING
UPWARDS THIS MORNING BUT HAVE NOW STEADIED IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RELAX SLIGHTLY IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT
RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS...CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SEAS AROUND 4 FEET. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN TOMORROW...BUT WILL SWIFTLY MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROAD 1016 TO 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN A PRESENCE OVER THE GULF...RESULTING IN MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE GULF AT NIGHT AND ON THE LAGUNA DURING THE DAY...
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED
STREAMER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE EACH NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  91  78  90 /   0  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  78  91 /   0  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            77  96  77  93 /   0  20  10  10
MCALLEN              77  96  77  95 /   0  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  98  76  98 /   0  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  88  79  87 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/61





000
FXUS64 KBRO 031942
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
242 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE TAIL EDGE OF THE
H5 TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS...
KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES FROM COMPLETELY ENDING...BUT ALSO KEEPING
THE BLAZING HEAT AWAY FROM THE REGION. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE NWWD INTO THE REGION...BUT IS NOT OVERLY DEEP. A BRIEF SURGE
MAY REACH SOUTH TX EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS...
BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LOWER OUT WEST
TOMORROW...SO TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN INCH UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
90S WEST OF US281. MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE DISSIPATED BY SUNSET
SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD FIREWORKS VIEWING
AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A BROAD HEIGHT FIELD WILL
EXTEND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL WEATHER. DAILY
PWAT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES...RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL...YET GENERALLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WEAK SEA BREEZE SHOWERS.
THE SYNOPTIC FLOW MAY ALSO BRING ISOL OVERNIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS
UP FROM THE SOUTH. DESPITE THESE POSSIBILITIES...RAIN CHANCE
PROBABILITY WILL BE LOW AND WILL BE ADVERTISED AS SILENT.

LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT...
WHICH WILL SUPPORT MODERATE AS OPPOSED TO LIGHT WINDS LOCALLY.
THE LOWER PRESSURE WILL HANG ON INTO MID WEEK EVEN AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. BY
MID TO LATE WEEK...591 DM HEIGHTS WILL STRETCH FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TEXAS AND THE LOWER SOUTHEAST.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF AND NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST...BUT THE SIGNIFICANCE
WILL BE MUTED. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL BE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEK...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MARINE NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS WERE SLOWLY INCHING
UPWARDS THIS MORNING BUT HAVE NOW STEADIED IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RELAX SLIGHTLY IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT
RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS...CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SEAS AROUND 4 FEET. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN TOMORROW...BUT WILL SWIFTLY MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROAD 1016 TO 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN A PRESENCE OVER THE GULF...RESULTING IN MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE GULF AT NIGHT AND ON THE LAGUNA DURING THE DAY...
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED
STREAMER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE EACH NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  90  78  90 /   0  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  93  78  91 /   0  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            77  95  77  93 /   0  20  10  10
MCALLEN              77  95  77  95 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  97  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  87  79  87 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/54




000
FXUS64 KBRO 031942
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
242 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE TAIL EDGE OF THE
H5 TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS...
KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES FROM COMPLETELY ENDING...BUT ALSO KEEPING
THE BLAZING HEAT AWAY FROM THE REGION. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE NWWD INTO THE REGION...BUT IS NOT OVERLY DEEP. A BRIEF SURGE
MAY REACH SOUTH TX EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS...
BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LOWER OUT WEST
TOMORROW...SO TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN INCH UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
90S WEST OF US281. MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE DISSIPATED BY SUNSET
SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD FIREWORKS VIEWING
AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A BROAD HEIGHT FIELD WILL
EXTEND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL WEATHER. DAILY
PWAT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES...RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL...YET GENERALLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WEAK SEA BREEZE SHOWERS.
THE SYNOPTIC FLOW MAY ALSO BRING ISOL OVERNIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS
UP FROM THE SOUTH. DESPITE THESE POSSIBILITIES...RAIN CHANCE
PROBABILITY WILL BE LOW AND WILL BE ADVERTISED AS SILENT.

LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT...
WHICH WILL SUPPORT MODERATE AS OPPOSED TO LIGHT WINDS LOCALLY.
THE LOWER PRESSURE WILL HANG ON INTO MID WEEK EVEN AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. BY
MID TO LATE WEEK...591 DM HEIGHTS WILL STRETCH FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TEXAS AND THE LOWER SOUTHEAST.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF AND NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST...BUT THE SIGNIFICANCE
WILL BE MUTED. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL BE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEK...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MARINE NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS WERE SLOWLY INCHING
UPWARDS THIS MORNING BUT HAVE NOW STEADIED IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RELAX SLIGHTLY IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT
RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS...CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SEAS AROUND 4 FEET. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN TOMORROW...BUT WILL SWIFTLY MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROAD 1016 TO 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN A PRESENCE OVER THE GULF...RESULTING IN MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE GULF AT NIGHT AND ON THE LAGUNA DURING THE DAY...
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED
STREAMER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE EACH NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  90  78  90 /   0  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  93  78  91 /   0  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            77  95  77  93 /   0  20  10  10
MCALLEN              77  95  77  95 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  97  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  87  79  87 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/54





000
FXUS64 KBRO 031728 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...DAYTIME CU FIELD ROLLING ALONG THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER
AIR HAS KEPT SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM FORMING...AND ONLY A COUPLE
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET...FALLING TO 5 TO 10KTS. SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AROUND DAWN...SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH ONLY
SLIGHT VIS LOWERING. ADDED LOWER CIGS INTO KMFE AS WELL. ANOTHER
DAY OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS SOUTHEAST WINDS TOMORROW.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64





000
FXUS64 KBRO 031728 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...DAYTIME CU FIELD ROLLING ALONG THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER
AIR HAS KEPT SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM FORMING...AND ONLY A COUPLE
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET...FALLING TO 5 TO 10KTS. SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AROUND DAWN...SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH ONLY
SLIGHT VIS LOWERING. ADDED LOWER CIGS INTO KMFE AS WELL. ANOTHER
DAY OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS SOUTHEAST WINDS TOMORROW.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64




000
FXUS64 KBRO 031728 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...DAYTIME CU FIELD ROLLING ALONG THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER
AIR HAS KEPT SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM FORMING...AND ONLY A COUPLE
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET...FALLING TO 5 TO 10KTS. SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AROUND DAWN...SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH ONLY
SLIGHT VIS LOWERING. ADDED LOWER CIGS INTO KMFE AS WELL. ANOTHER
DAY OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS SOUTHEAST WINDS TOMORROW.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64




000
FXUS64 KBRO 031045 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
545 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...THE UPCOMING TAFS WILL REFLECT THAT LIGHT FOG HAS
FORMED AT THE BRO AND HRL AERODROMES...WITH ALL AERODROMES ALSO
REFLECTING THAT SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED MORE TOWARDS THE EAST
AND LIGHTENED TO AROUND 5 KNOTS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDINESS
HAS ALSO DEVELOPED BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 FEET. PURE VFR IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE
WINDS BECOMING BREEZY AND SCATTERED CLOUDS OVERHEAD. MVFR IS
FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...WITH PERSISTENT 500 MB
TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES AND GULF
OF MEXICO...AND 500 MB LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADING ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO...ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRESENT TO
ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PORTION AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS OF THE BRO CWFA TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH ISOLATED
STREAMER SHOWERS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
RANGE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8 INCHES...NOT ROBUST...BUT
ENOUGH TO EKE OUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOKED SLIGHTLY TOO COOL
WHEN COMPARED TO CURRENT MET/MAV GUIDANCE...SO TEMPERATURES WERE
RAISED BY ONE DEGREE ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT APPEARED FINE
AND WERE LEFT ALONE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE EAST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW GRADUALLY
SPREADS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHILE A DISTURBANCE OVER MEXICO
FLATTENS KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE TRAP SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL BE NO
MORE THAN 50 TO 40 PERCENT WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN VERY
LOW FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. LOW TEMPS
FOR THE HOLIDAY TO WATCH FIREWORKS WILL RANGE BETWEEN A FEW MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE RGV AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
STREAMER SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BY MID SUNDAY MORNING BUT QUICKLY
DIMINISH WITH LOW RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA. GRADIENT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CWA
INCREASING SE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND NEAR 90
ALONG THE COAST.

NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE TOWARDS THE PAC NORTHWEST WITH ITS
CENTERED SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BEGINS TO BUILD EVEN
MORE INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE. MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE GULF AND DEEP S TX WILL BE IN
CONTROL PROVIDING MUCH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND MODERATE TO BREEZE SE WINDS MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. HEAT
INDEX WILL BE READING BETWEEN 102 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA
WITH HIGHER INDEX RIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. A VERY BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
WEAK MID LEVEL WIND FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S
AND LOWER LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND FRIDAY AS
WEAK TROPICAL WAVES MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 18 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 21 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER
4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS DUE TO
SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BUILDING SEAS AND POSSIBLY SCEC SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK...THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEK. SEAS WILL BE BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET AS THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO POSSIBLY SCEC
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KBRO 030755
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
255 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...WITH PERSISTENT 500 MB
TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES AND GULF
OF MEXICO...AND 500 MB LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADING ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO...ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRESENT TO
ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PORTION AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS OF THE BRO CWFA TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH ISOLATED
STREAMER SHOWERS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
RANGE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8 INCHES...NOT ROBUST...BUT
ENOUGH TO EKE OUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOKED SLIGHTLY TOO COOL
WHEN COMPARED TO CURRENT MET/MAV GUIDANCE...SO TEMPERATURES WERE
RAISED BY ONE DEGREE ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT APPEARED FINE
AND WERE LEFT ALONE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE EAST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW GRADUALLY
SPREADS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHILE A DISTURBANCE OVER MEXICO
FLATTENS KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE TRAP SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL BE NO
MORE THAN 50 TO 40 PERCENT WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN VERY
LOW FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. LOW TEMPS
FOR THE HOLIDAY TO WATCH FIREWORKS WILL RANGE BETWEEN A FEW MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE RGV AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
STREAMER SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BY MID SUNDAY MORNING BUT QUICKLY
DIMINISH WITH LOW RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA. GRADIENT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CWA
INCREASING SE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND NEAR 90
ALONG THE COAST.

NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE TOWARDS THE PAC NORTHWEST WITH ITS
CENTERED SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BEGINS TO BUILD EVEN
MORE INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE. MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE GULF AND DEEP S TX WILL BE IN
CONTROL PROVIDING MUCH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND MODERATE TO BREEZE SE WINDS MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. HEAT
INDEX WILL BE READING BETWEEN 102 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA
WITH HIGHER INDEX RIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. A VERY BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
WEAK MID LEVEL WIND FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S
AND LOWER LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND FRIDAY AS
WEAK TROPICAL WAVES MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA.

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 18 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 21 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER
4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS DUE TO
SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BUILDING SEAS AND POSSIBLY SCEC SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK...THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEK. SEAS WILL BE BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET AS THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO POSSIBLY SCEC
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  79  90  78 /  20   0  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          93  78  93  78 /  20   0  20  10
HARLINGEN            95  77  95  77 /  20   0  20  10
MCALLEN              95  77  95  77 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      97  76  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  79  87  79 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

66/67





000
FXUS64 KBRO 030755
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
255 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...WITH PERSISTENT 500 MB
TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES AND GULF
OF MEXICO...AND 500 MB LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADING ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO...ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRESENT TO
ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PORTION AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS OF THE BRO CWFA TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH ISOLATED
STREAMER SHOWERS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
RANGE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8 INCHES...NOT ROBUST...BUT
ENOUGH TO EKE OUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOKED SLIGHTLY TOO COOL
WHEN COMPARED TO CURRENT MET/MAV GUIDANCE...SO TEMPERATURES WERE
RAISED BY ONE DEGREE ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT APPEARED FINE
AND WERE LEFT ALONE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE EAST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW GRADUALLY
SPREADS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHILE A DISTURBANCE OVER MEXICO
FLATTENS KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE TRAP SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL BE NO
MORE THAN 50 TO 40 PERCENT WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN VERY
LOW FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. LOW TEMPS
FOR THE HOLIDAY TO WATCH FIREWORKS WILL RANGE BETWEEN A FEW MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE RGV AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
STREAMER SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BY MID SUNDAY MORNING BUT QUICKLY
DIMINISH WITH LOW RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA. GRADIENT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CWA
INCREASING SE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND NEAR 90
ALONG THE COAST.

NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE TOWARDS THE PAC NORTHWEST WITH ITS
CENTERED SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BEGINS TO BUILD EVEN
MORE INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE. MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE GULF AND DEEP S TX WILL BE IN
CONTROL PROVIDING MUCH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND MODERATE TO BREEZE SE WINDS MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. HEAT
INDEX WILL BE READING BETWEEN 102 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA
WITH HIGHER INDEX RIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. A VERY BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
WEAK MID LEVEL WIND FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S
AND LOWER LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND FRIDAY AS
WEAK TROPICAL WAVES MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA.

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 18 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 21 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER
4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS DUE TO
SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BUILDING SEAS AND POSSIBLY SCEC SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK...THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEK. SEAS WILL BE BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET AS THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO POSSIBLY SCEC
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  79  90  78 /  20   0  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          93  78  93  78 /  20   0  20  10
HARLINGEN            95  77  95  77 /  20   0  20  10
MCALLEN              95  77  95  77 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      97  76  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  79  87  79 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

66/67




000
FXUS64 KBRO 030755
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
255 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...WITH PERSISTENT 500 MB
TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES AND GULF
OF MEXICO...AND 500 MB LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADING ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO...ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRESENT TO
ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PORTION AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS OF THE BRO CWFA TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH ISOLATED
STREAMER SHOWERS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
RANGE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8 INCHES...NOT ROBUST...BUT
ENOUGH TO EKE OUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOKED SLIGHTLY TOO COOL
WHEN COMPARED TO CURRENT MET/MAV GUIDANCE...SO TEMPERATURES WERE
RAISED BY ONE DEGREE ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT APPEARED FINE
AND WERE LEFT ALONE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE EAST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW GRADUALLY
SPREADS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHILE A DISTURBANCE OVER MEXICO
FLATTENS KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE TRAP SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL BE NO
MORE THAN 50 TO 40 PERCENT WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN VERY
LOW FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. LOW TEMPS
FOR THE HOLIDAY TO WATCH FIREWORKS WILL RANGE BETWEEN A FEW MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE RGV AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
STREAMER SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BY MID SUNDAY MORNING BUT QUICKLY
DIMINISH WITH LOW RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA. GRADIENT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CWA
INCREASING SE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND NEAR 90
ALONG THE COAST.

NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE TOWARDS THE PAC NORTHWEST WITH ITS
CENTERED SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BEGINS TO BUILD EVEN
MORE INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE. MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE GULF AND DEEP S TX WILL BE IN
CONTROL PROVIDING MUCH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND MODERATE TO BREEZE SE WINDS MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. HEAT
INDEX WILL BE READING BETWEEN 102 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA
WITH HIGHER INDEX RIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. A VERY BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
WEAK MID LEVEL WIND FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S
AND LOWER LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND FRIDAY AS
WEAK TROPICAL WAVES MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA.

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 18 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 21 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER
4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS DUE TO
SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BUILDING SEAS AND POSSIBLY SCEC SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK...THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEK. SEAS WILL BE BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET AS THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO POSSIBLY SCEC
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  79  90  78 /  20   0  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          93  78  93  78 /  20   0  20  10
HARLINGEN            95  77  95  77 /  20   0  20  10
MCALLEN              95  77  95  77 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      97  76  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  79  87  79 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

66/67




000
FXUS64 KBRO 030755
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
255 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...WITH PERSISTENT 500 MB
TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES AND GULF
OF MEXICO...AND 500 MB LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADING ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO...ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRESENT TO
ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PORTION AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS OF THE BRO CWFA TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH ISOLATED
STREAMER SHOWERS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
RANGE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8 INCHES...NOT ROBUST...BUT
ENOUGH TO EKE OUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOKED SLIGHTLY TOO COOL
WHEN COMPARED TO CURRENT MET/MAV GUIDANCE...SO TEMPERATURES WERE
RAISED BY ONE DEGREE ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT APPEARED FINE
AND WERE LEFT ALONE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE EAST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW GRADUALLY
SPREADS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHILE A DISTURBANCE OVER MEXICO
FLATTENS KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE TRAP SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL BE NO
MORE THAN 50 TO 40 PERCENT WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN VERY
LOW FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. LOW TEMPS
FOR THE HOLIDAY TO WATCH FIREWORKS WILL RANGE BETWEEN A FEW MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE RGV AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
STREAMER SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BY MID SUNDAY MORNING BUT QUICKLY
DIMINISH WITH LOW RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA. GRADIENT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CWA
INCREASING SE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND NEAR 90
ALONG THE COAST.

NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE TOWARDS THE PAC NORTHWEST WITH ITS
CENTERED SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BEGINS TO BUILD EVEN
MORE INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE. MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE GULF AND DEEP S TX WILL BE IN
CONTROL PROVIDING MUCH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND MODERATE TO BREEZE SE WINDS MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. HEAT
INDEX WILL BE READING BETWEEN 102 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA
WITH HIGHER INDEX RIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. A VERY BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
WEAK MID LEVEL WIND FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S
AND LOWER LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND FRIDAY AS
WEAK TROPICAL WAVES MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA.

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 18 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 21 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER
4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS DUE TO
SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BUILDING SEAS AND POSSIBLY SCEC SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK...THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEK. SEAS WILL BE BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET AS THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO POSSIBLY SCEC
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  79  90  78 /  20   0  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          93  78  93  78 /  20   0  20  10
HARLINGEN            95  77  95  77 /  20   0  20  10
MCALLEN              95  77  95  77 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      97  76  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  79  87  79 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

66/67





000
FXUS64 KBRO 030522 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1222 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PREVAILING AT THE
AERODROMES BUT MVFR IS EXPECTED TO SET IN OVERNIGHT WITH A LOW
DECK OF CLOUDINESS AROUND 1500 FEET FORMING UP. VFR WILL RESUME
AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS AND
SCATTERED CLOUDINESS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL BUILD IN
LATE OVERNIGHT AFT 09Z. SHORT TERM MODELS DEPICT HOLDING MVFR
THROUGH MID MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
FRIDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAT A NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS
ABLE TO PRODUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RACING NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. THIS LINE ALSO STABILIZED THE ATMS AFTER...SO THE
REMAINING PORTION OF THE AFTN SHOULD STAY DRY. DRIER AIR ALREADY
FILTERING INTO THE REGION, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES. FOCUS TOMORROW WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED. WITH THE DECREASE IN
MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL HAVE A BETTER TIME
RISING DURING PEAK HEATING. THE MODELS ARE HANDLING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS REASONABLY...REACHING 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF STREAMER SHOWER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY
DECREASE IN MOISTURE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING OVER
THE WEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
FLATTENING NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING RIDGING OVER THE WEST TO EXTEND
OVER TEXAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL
KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY...FADING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. BY NEXT WEEK A MORE STABLE PATTER WILL SET UP
AS RIDGING OVER THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OTHERWISE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH SUMMERTIME RIDGE CONTINUING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. WIND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS, WITH SEAS CONTINUING AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WINDS WILL RISE BACK
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS BUMPING
UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
INITIALLY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO EAST TEXAS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTROL THE WEST GULF WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS. THE PATTERN WILL BRING CONVECTION INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF. LOWER PRESSURE UPSTREAM OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND BOOST SOUTHEAST WINDS SLIGHTLY AT
NIGHT...MAKING SMALL CRAFT EXERICSE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. ISOLATED MARINE CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A ROLE THROUGH THE FORECAST...NEVER
COMPLETELY SHUTTING OFF.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KBRO 030522 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1222 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PREVAILING AT THE
AERODROMES BUT MVFR IS EXPECTED TO SET IN OVERNIGHT WITH A LOW
DECK OF CLOUDINESS AROUND 1500 FEET FORMING UP. VFR WILL RESUME
AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS AND
SCATTERED CLOUDINESS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL BUILD IN
LATE OVERNIGHT AFT 09Z. SHORT TERM MODELS DEPICT HOLDING MVFR
THROUGH MID MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
FRIDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAT A NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS
ABLE TO PRODUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RACING NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. THIS LINE ALSO STABILIZED THE ATMS AFTER...SO THE
REMAINING PORTION OF THE AFTN SHOULD STAY DRY. DRIER AIR ALREADY
FILTERING INTO THE REGION, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES. FOCUS TOMORROW WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED. WITH THE DECREASE IN
MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL HAVE A BETTER TIME
RISING DURING PEAK HEATING. THE MODELS ARE HANDLING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS REASONABLY...REACHING 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF STREAMER SHOWER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY
DECREASE IN MOISTURE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING OVER
THE WEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
FLATTENING NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING RIDGING OVER THE WEST TO EXTEND
OVER TEXAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL
KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY...FADING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. BY NEXT WEEK A MORE STABLE PATTER WILL SET UP
AS RIDGING OVER THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OTHERWISE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH SUMMERTIME RIDGE CONTINUING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. WIND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS, WITH SEAS CONTINUING AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WINDS WILL RISE BACK
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS BUMPING
UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
INITIALLY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO EAST TEXAS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTROL THE WEST GULF WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS. THE PATTERN WILL BRING CONVECTION INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF. LOWER PRESSURE UPSTREAM OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND BOOST SOUTHEAST WINDS SLIGHTLY AT
NIGHT...MAKING SMALL CRAFT EXERICSE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. ISOLATED MARINE CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A ROLE THROUGH THE FORECAST...NEVER
COMPLETELY SHUTTING OFF.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV




000
FXUS64 KBRO 022337
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
637 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL BUILD IN
LATE OVERNIGHT AFT 09Z. SHORT TERM MODELS DEPICT HOLDING MVFR
THROUGH MID MORNING. GUSTY SOUUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
FRIDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAT A NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS
ABLE TO PRODUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RACING NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. THIS LINE ALSO STABILIZED THE ATMS AFTER...SO THE
REMAINING PORTION OF THE AFTN SHOULD STAY DRY. DRIER AIR ALREADY
FILTERING INTO THE REGION, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES. FOCUS TOMORROW WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED. WITH THE DECREASE IN
MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL HAVE A BETTER TIME
RISING DURING PEAK HEATING. THE MODELS ARE HANDLING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS REASONABLY...REACHING 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF STREAMER SHOWER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY
DECREASE IN MOISTURE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING OVER
THE WEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
FLATTENING NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING RIDGING OVER THE WEST TO EXTEND
OVER TEXAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL
KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY...FADING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. BY NEXT WEEK A MORE STABLE PATTER WILL SET UP
AS RIDGING OVER THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OTHERWISE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH SUMMERTIME RIDGE CONTINUING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. WIND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS, WITH SEAS CONTINUING AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WINDS WILL RISE BACK
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS BUMPING
UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
INITIALLY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO EAST TEXAS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTROL THE WEST GULF WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS. THE PATTERN WILL BRING CONVECTION INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF. LOWER PRESSURE UPSTREAM OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND BOOST SOUTHEAST WINDS SLIGHTLY AT
NIGHT...MAKING SMALL CRAFT EXERICSE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. ISOLATED MARINE CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A ROLE THROUGH THE FORECAST...NEVER
COMPLETELY SHUTTING OFF.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55




000
FXUS64 KBRO 022337
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
637 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL BUILD IN
LATE OVERNIGHT AFT 09Z. SHORT TERM MODELS DEPICT HOLDING MVFR
THROUGH MID MORNING. GUSTY SOUUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
FRIDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAT A NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS
ABLE TO PRODUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RACING NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. THIS LINE ALSO STABILIZED THE ATMS AFTER...SO THE
REMAINING PORTION OF THE AFTN SHOULD STAY DRY. DRIER AIR ALREADY
FILTERING INTO THE REGION, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES. FOCUS TOMORROW WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED. WITH THE DECREASE IN
MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL HAVE A BETTER TIME
RISING DURING PEAK HEATING. THE MODELS ARE HANDLING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS REASONABLY...REACHING 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF STREAMER SHOWER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY
DECREASE IN MOISTURE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING OVER
THE WEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
FLATTENING NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING RIDGING OVER THE WEST TO EXTEND
OVER TEXAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL
KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY...FADING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. BY NEXT WEEK A MORE STABLE PATTER WILL SET UP
AS RIDGING OVER THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OTHERWISE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH SUMMERTIME RIDGE CONTINUING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. WIND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS, WITH SEAS CONTINUING AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WINDS WILL RISE BACK
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS BUMPING
UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
INITIALLY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO EAST TEXAS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTROL THE WEST GULF WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS. THE PATTERN WILL BRING CONVECTION INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF. LOWER PRESSURE UPSTREAM OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND BOOST SOUTHEAST WINDS SLIGHTLY AT
NIGHT...MAKING SMALL CRAFT EXERICSE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. ISOLATED MARINE CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A ROLE THROUGH THE FORECAST...NEVER
COMPLETELY SHUTTING OFF.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55





000
FXUS64 KBRO 021953
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
253 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAT A NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS
ABLE TO PRODUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RACING NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. THIS LINE ALSO STABILIZED THE ATMS AFTER...SO THE
REMAINING PORTION OF THE AFTN SHOULD STAY DRY. DRIER AIR ALREADY
FILTERING INTO THE REGION, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES. FOCUS TOMORROW WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED. WITH THE DECREASE IN
MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL HAVE A BETTER TIME
RISING DURING PEAK HEATING. THE MODELS ARE HANDLING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS REASONABLY...REACHING 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF STREAMER SHOWER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY
DECREASE IN MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING OVER
THE WEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
FLATTENING NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING RIDGING OVER THE WEST TO EXTEND
OVER TEXAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL
KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY...FADING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. BY NEXT WEEK A MORE STABLE PATTER WILL SET UP
AS RIDGING OVER THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OTHERWISE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS.

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH SUMMERTIME RIDGE CONTINUING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. WIND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS, WITH SEAS CONTINUING AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WINDS WILL RISE BACK
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS BUMPING
UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
INITIALLY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO EAST TEXAS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTROL THE WEST GULF WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS. THE PATTERN WILL BRING CONVECTION INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF. LOWER PRESSURE UPSTREAM OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND BOOST SOUTHEAST WINDS SLIGHTLY AT
NIGHT...MAKING SMALL CRAFT EXERICSE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. ISOLATED MARINE CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A ROLE THROUGH THE FORECAST...NEVER
COMPLETELY SHUTTING OFF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  91  80  90 /  10  20  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  79  91 /  10  20  10  20
HARLINGEN            76  96  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
MCALLEN              77  96  78  95 /  10  10  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  98  77  96 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  88  80  87 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/54/65




000
FXUS64 KBRO 021953
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
253 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAT A NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS
ABLE TO PRODUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RACING NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. THIS LINE ALSO STABILIZED THE ATMS AFTER...SO THE
REMAINING PORTION OF THE AFTN SHOULD STAY DRY. DRIER AIR ALREADY
FILTERING INTO THE REGION, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES. FOCUS TOMORROW WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED. WITH THE DECREASE IN
MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL HAVE A BETTER TIME
RISING DURING PEAK HEATING. THE MODELS ARE HANDLING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS REASONABLY...REACHING 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF STREAMER SHOWER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY
DECREASE IN MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING OVER
THE WEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
FLATTENING NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING RIDGING OVER THE WEST TO EXTEND
OVER TEXAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL
KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY...FADING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. BY NEXT WEEK A MORE STABLE PATTER WILL SET UP
AS RIDGING OVER THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OTHERWISE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS.

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH SUMMERTIME RIDGE CONTINUING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. WIND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS, WITH SEAS CONTINUING AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WINDS WILL RISE BACK
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS BUMPING
UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
INITIALLY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO EAST TEXAS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTROL THE WEST GULF WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS. THE PATTERN WILL BRING CONVECTION INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF. LOWER PRESSURE UPSTREAM OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND BOOST SOUTHEAST WINDS SLIGHTLY AT
NIGHT...MAKING SMALL CRAFT EXERICSE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. ISOLATED MARINE CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A ROLE THROUGH THE FORECAST...NEVER
COMPLETELY SHUTTING OFF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  91  80  90 /  10  20  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  79  91 /  10  20  10  20
HARLINGEN            76  96  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
MCALLEN              77  96  78  95 /  10  10  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  98  77  96 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  88  80  87 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/54/65





000
FXUS64 KBRO 021728
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1228 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR IN
THUNDERSTORMS. RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE ACTIVITY HAS MOSTLY LIFTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DROPPED OFF IN THE WAKE OF THE TSRA
LINE...HOWEVER BREEZY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF DECREASING WINDS THIS
EVENING AND MVFR RETURNING LATE AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS A BIT AS CURRENT ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING TO THE NORTH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A TEMPO BETWEEN 12-14Z FOR
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20 TO 25 KNOTS LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.70 INCHES. TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWS DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.80 INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE FOR TODAY. WILL BLEND
BETWEEN THE DRIER MAV/MET AND THE WETTER ECWMF FOR POPS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY FOR THE GULF
WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES...FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 80S ALONG THE BEACHES...LOW 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THE MID 90S FOR THE UPPER VALLEY AND OVER THE WEST FOR
TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TO TODAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90
ALONG THE COAST...MID 90S IN THE VALLEY AND THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
WEST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND ONLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...AS 500 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO MOVES
WEST AND WEAKENS. 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AND BECOME MORE
DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INHERITED
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB HIGH.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 4.3
FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

99/99




000
FXUS64 KBRO 021728
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1228 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR IN
THUNDERSTORMS. RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE ACTIVITY HAS MOSTLY LIFTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DROPPED OFF IN THE WAKE OF THE TSRA
LINE...HOWEVER BREEZY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF DECREASING WINDS THIS
EVENING AND MVFR RETURNING LATE AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS A BIT AS CURRENT ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING TO THE NORTH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A TEMPO BETWEEN 12-14Z FOR
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20 TO 25 KNOTS LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.70 INCHES. TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWS DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.80 INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE FOR TODAY. WILL BLEND
BETWEEN THE DRIER MAV/MET AND THE WETTER ECWMF FOR POPS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY FOR THE GULF
WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES...FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 80S ALONG THE BEACHES...LOW 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THE MID 90S FOR THE UPPER VALLEY AND OVER THE WEST FOR
TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TO TODAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90
ALONG THE COAST...MID 90S IN THE VALLEY AND THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
WEST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND ONLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...AS 500 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO MOVES
WEST AND WEAKENS. 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AND BECOME MORE
DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INHERITED
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB HIGH.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 4.3
FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

99/99





000
FXUS64 KBRO 021619
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1119 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS A BIT AS CURRENT ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING TO THE NORTH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A TEMPO BETWEEN 12-14Z FOR
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20 TO 25 KNOTS LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.70 INCHES. TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWS DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.80 INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE FOR TODAY. WILL BLEND
BETWEEN THE DRIER MAV/MET AND THE WETTER ECWMF FOR POPS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY FOR THE GULF
WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES...FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 80S ALONG THE BEACHES...LOW 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THE MID 90S FOR THE UPPER VALLEY AND OVER THE WEST FOR
TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TO TODAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90
ALONG THE COAST...MID 90S IN THE VALLEY AND THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
WEST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND ONLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...AS 500 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO MOVES
WEST AND WEAKENS. 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AND BECOME MORE
DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INHERITED
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB HIGH.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 4.3
FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

99/99




000
FXUS64 KBRO 021619
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1119 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS A BIT AS CURRENT ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING TO THE NORTH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A TEMPO BETWEEN 12-14Z FOR
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20 TO 25 KNOTS LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.70 INCHES. TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWS DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.80 INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE FOR TODAY. WILL BLEND
BETWEEN THE DRIER MAV/MET AND THE WETTER ECWMF FOR POPS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY FOR THE GULF
WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES...FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 80S ALONG THE BEACHES...LOW 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THE MID 90S FOR THE UPPER VALLEY AND OVER THE WEST FOR
TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TO TODAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90
ALONG THE COAST...MID 90S IN THE VALLEY AND THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
WEST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND ONLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...AS 500 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO MOVES
WEST AND WEAKENS. 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AND BECOME MORE
DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INHERITED
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB HIGH.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 4.3
FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

99/99





000
FXUS64 KBRO 021619
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1119 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS A BIT AS CURRENT ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING TO THE NORTH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A TEMPO BETWEEN 12-14Z FOR
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20 TO 25 KNOTS LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.70 INCHES. TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWS DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.80 INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE FOR TODAY. WILL BLEND
BETWEEN THE DRIER MAV/MET AND THE WETTER ECWMF FOR POPS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY FOR THE GULF
WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES...FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 80S ALONG THE BEACHES...LOW 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THE MID 90S FOR THE UPPER VALLEY AND OVER THE WEST FOR
TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TO TODAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90
ALONG THE COAST...MID 90S IN THE VALLEY AND THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
WEST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND ONLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...AS 500 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO MOVES
WEST AND WEAKENS. 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AND BECOME MORE
DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INHERITED
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB HIGH.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 4.3
FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

99/99





000
FXUS64 KBRO 021619
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1119 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS A BIT AS CURRENT ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING TO THE NORTH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A TEMPO BETWEEN 12-14Z FOR
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20 TO 25 KNOTS LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.70 INCHES. TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWS DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.80 INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE FOR TODAY. WILL BLEND
BETWEEN THE DRIER MAV/MET AND THE WETTER ECWMF FOR POPS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY FOR THE GULF
WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES...FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 80S ALONG THE BEACHES...LOW 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THE MID 90S FOR THE UPPER VALLEY AND OVER THE WEST FOR
TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TO TODAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90
ALONG THE COAST...MID 90S IN THE VALLEY AND THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
WEST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND ONLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...AS 500 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO MOVES
WEST AND WEAKENS. 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AND BECOME MORE
DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INHERITED
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB HIGH.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 4.3
FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

99/99




000
FXUS64 KBRO 021518
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1018 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING TO THE NORTH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A TEMPO BETWEEN 12-14Z FOR
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20 TO 25 KNOTS LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.70 INCHES. TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWS DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.80 INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE FOR TODAY. WILL BLEND
BETWEEN THE DRIER MAV/MET AND THE WETTER ECWMF FOR POPS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY FOR THE GULF
WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES...FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 80S ALONG THE BEACHES...LOW 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THE MID 90S FOR THE UPPER VALLEY AND OVER THE WEST FOR
TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TO TODAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90
ALONG THE COAST...MID 90S IN THE VALLEY AND THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
WEST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND ONLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...AS 500 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO MOVES
WEST AND WEAKENS. 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AND BECOME MORE
DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INHERITED
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB HIGH.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 4.3
FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

99/99





000
FXUS64 KBRO 021518
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1018 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING TO THE NORTH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A TEMPO BETWEEN 12-14Z FOR
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20 TO 25 KNOTS LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.70 INCHES. TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWS DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.80 INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE FOR TODAY. WILL BLEND
BETWEEN THE DRIER MAV/MET AND THE WETTER ECWMF FOR POPS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY FOR THE GULF
WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES...FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 80S ALONG THE BEACHES...LOW 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THE MID 90S FOR THE UPPER VALLEY AND OVER THE WEST FOR
TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TO TODAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90
ALONG THE COAST...MID 90S IN THE VALLEY AND THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
WEST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND ONLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...AS 500 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO MOVES
WEST AND WEAKENS. 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AND BECOME MORE
DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INHERITED
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB HIGH.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 4.3
FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

99/99




000
FXUS64 KBRO 021143 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
643 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A TEMPO BETWEEN 12-14Z FOR
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20 TO 25 KNOTS LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.70 INCHES. TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWS DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.80 INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE FOR TODAY. WILL BLEND
BETWEEN THE DRIER MAV/MET AND THE WETTER ECWMF FOR POPS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY FOR THE GULF
WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES...FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 80S ALONG THE BEACHES...LOW 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THE MID 90S FOR THE UPPER VALLEY AND OVER THE WEST FOR
TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TO TODAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90
ALONG THE COAST...MID 90S IN THE VALLEY AND THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
WEST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND ONLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...AS 500 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO MOVES
WEST AND WEAKENS. 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AND BECOME MORE
DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INHERITED
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB HIGH.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 4.3
FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 021143 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
643 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A TEMPO BETWEEN 12-14Z FOR
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20 TO 25 KNOTS LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.70 INCHES. TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWS DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.80 INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE FOR TODAY. WILL BLEND
BETWEEN THE DRIER MAV/MET AND THE WETTER ECWMF FOR POPS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY FOR THE GULF
WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES...FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 80S ALONG THE BEACHES...LOW 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THE MID 90S FOR THE UPPER VALLEY AND OVER THE WEST FOR
TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TO TODAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90
ALONG THE COAST...MID 90S IN THE VALLEY AND THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
WEST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND ONLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...AS 500 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO MOVES
WEST AND WEAKENS. 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AND BECOME MORE
DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INHERITED
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB HIGH.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 4.3
FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 021143 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
643 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A TEMPO BETWEEN 12-14Z FOR
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20 TO 25 KNOTS LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.70 INCHES. TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWS DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.80 INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE FOR TODAY. WILL BLEND
BETWEEN THE DRIER MAV/MET AND THE WETTER ECWMF FOR POPS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY FOR THE GULF
WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES...FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 80S ALONG THE BEACHES...LOW 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THE MID 90S FOR THE UPPER VALLEY AND OVER THE WEST FOR
TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TO TODAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90
ALONG THE COAST...MID 90S IN THE VALLEY AND THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
WEST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND ONLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...AS 500 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO MOVES
WEST AND WEAKENS. 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AND BECOME MORE
DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INHERITED
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB HIGH.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 4.3
FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 021143 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
643 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A TEMPO BETWEEN 12-14Z FOR
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20 TO 25 KNOTS LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.70 INCHES. TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWS DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.80 INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE FOR TODAY. WILL BLEND
BETWEEN THE DRIER MAV/MET AND THE WETTER ECWMF FOR POPS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY FOR THE GULF
WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES...FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 80S ALONG THE BEACHES...LOW 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THE MID 90S FOR THE UPPER VALLEY AND OVER THE WEST FOR
TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TO TODAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90
ALONG THE COAST...MID 90S IN THE VALLEY AND THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
WEST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND ONLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...AS 500 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO MOVES
WEST AND WEAKENS. 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AND BECOME MORE
DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INHERITED
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB HIGH.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 4.3
FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 020941
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
441 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.70 INCHES. TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWS DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.80 INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE FOR TODAY. WILL BLEND
BETWEEN THE DRIER MAV/MET AND THE WETTER ECWMF FOR POPS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY FOR THE GULF
WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES...FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 80S ALONG THE BEACHES...LOW 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THE MID 90S FOR THE UPPER VALLEY AND OVER THE WEST FOR
TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TO TODAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90
ALONG THE COAST...MID 90S IN THE VALLEY AND THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
WEST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND ONLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...AS 500 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO MOVES
WEST AND WEAKENS. 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AND BECOME MORE
DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INHERITED
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB HIGH.

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 4.3
FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  78  91  78 /  20  10  20   0
BROWNSVILLE          91  78  94  77 /  20  10  20   0
HARLINGEN            93  76  96  75 /  20  10  20   0
MCALLEN              95  77  96  77 /  20  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      95  75  98  75 /  20  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   86  81  88  81 /  20  10  20   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...CACERES-63
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
WX4PPT/MESO...BILLINGS-58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 020941
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
441 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.70 INCHES. TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWS DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.80 INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE FOR TODAY. WILL BLEND
BETWEEN THE DRIER MAV/MET AND THE WETTER ECWMF FOR POPS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY FOR THE GULF
WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES...FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 80S ALONG THE BEACHES...LOW 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THE MID 90S FOR THE UPPER VALLEY AND OVER THE WEST FOR
TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TO TODAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90
ALONG THE COAST...MID 90S IN THE VALLEY AND THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
WEST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND ONLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...AS 500 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO MOVES
WEST AND WEAKENS. 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AND BECOME MORE
DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INHERITED
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB HIGH.

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 4.3
FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  78  91  78 /  20  10  20   0
BROWNSVILLE          91  78  94  77 /  20  10  20   0
HARLINGEN            93  76  96  75 /  20  10  20   0
MCALLEN              95  77  96  77 /  20  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      95  75  98  75 /  20  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   86  81  88  81 /  20  10  20   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...CACERES-63
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
WX4PPT/MESO...BILLINGS-58





000
FXUS64 KBRO 020941
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
441 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.70 INCHES. TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWS DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.80 INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE FOR TODAY. WILL BLEND
BETWEEN THE DRIER MAV/MET AND THE WETTER ECWMF FOR POPS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY FOR THE GULF
WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES...FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 80S ALONG THE BEACHES...LOW 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THE MID 90S FOR THE UPPER VALLEY AND OVER THE WEST FOR
TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TO TODAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90
ALONG THE COAST...MID 90S IN THE VALLEY AND THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
WEST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND ONLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...AS 500 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO MOVES
WEST AND WEAKENS. 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AND BECOME MORE
DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INHERITED
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB HIGH.

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 4.3
FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  78  91  78 /  20  10  20   0
BROWNSVILLE          91  78  94  77 /  20  10  20   0
HARLINGEN            93  76  96  75 /  20  10  20   0
MCALLEN              95  77  96  77 /  20  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      95  75  98  75 /  20  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   86  81  88  81 /  20  10  20   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...CACERES-63
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
WX4PPT/MESO...BILLINGS-58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 020941
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
441 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.70 INCHES. TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWS DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.80 INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE FOR TODAY. WILL BLEND
BETWEEN THE DRIER MAV/MET AND THE WETTER ECWMF FOR POPS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY FOR THE GULF
WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES...FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 80S ALONG THE BEACHES...LOW 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THE MID 90S FOR THE UPPER VALLEY AND OVER THE WEST FOR
TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TO TODAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90
ALONG THE COAST...MID 90S IN THE VALLEY AND THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
WEST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND ONLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...AS 500 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO MOVES
WEST AND WEAKENS. 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AND BECOME MORE
DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INHERITED
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB HIGH.

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 4.3
FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  78  91  78 /  20  10  20   0
BROWNSVILLE          91  78  94  77 /  20  10  20   0
HARLINGEN            93  76  96  75 /  20  10  20   0
MCALLEN              95  77  96  77 /  20  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      95  75  98  75 /  20  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   86  81  88  81 /  20  10  20   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...CACERES-63
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
WX4PPT/MESO...BILLINGS-58





000
FXUS64 KBRO 020551 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1251 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
LOW CLOUD DECKS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT MVFR
CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER
THIS EVENING WITH A LOWERING CLOUD DECK AROUND 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...MADE A QUICK UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
WHICH WERE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GOING FORECAST. WINDS ARE LIGHTER
THAN FORECAST AS WELL SO TRENDED DOWNWARD ON SPEEDS AS WELL.
UPDATE SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD CONV TO THE REGION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT AND START DRIFTING WEST LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURS AND THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUALLY
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CONV POTENTIAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
THE MAV IS COMING IN THE DRIEST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE
MET AND ECMWF WANTING TO HOLD ONTO SOME 30% POPS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM SINCE THE DRIER MAV GUIDANCE IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE MET/MAV/ECMWF
TEMPS AS THE MORE LIMITED CONV COVERAGE TOMORROW MAY ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE BETTER WARMUP OF AFTERNOON HIGHS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WITH THE REGION BETWEEN
RIDGING AND TROUGHING...LOCAL WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED
MOSTLY BY SFC FEATURES. MOISTURE PLUME THAT HAS BEEN SWEEPING NWWD
INTO TEXAS WILL FINALLY START TO DECREASE THIS WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT THEY WILL BE LIMITED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...ENOUGH TO NOT INTERFERE WITH
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS ON THE 4TH. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY...BUT BY MONDAY PW VALUES ARE NOTED AROUND 1.5
INCHES WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITING ON SHOWER FORMATION.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CONV FROM EARLIER TODAY PUSHED
UP THE GULF WINDS AND SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
THESE HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH AS THE CONV HAS DIED DOWN. OUTFLOW
FROM THIS CONV IS PRODUCING SOME DECENT SW SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS FLOW TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MODERATE S-SE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PGF FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT TO
REQUIRE SOME SCEC WORDING OR INTO THURS/THURS NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STANDARD SUMMERTIME SE FLOW CONTINUES
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THIS
WILL KEEP THE WAVE ACTION RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING CHANCES EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 020551 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1251 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
LOW CLOUD DECKS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT MVFR
CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER
THIS EVENING WITH A LOWERING CLOUD DECK AROUND 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...MADE A QUICK UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
WHICH WERE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GOING FORECAST. WINDS ARE LIGHTER
THAN FORECAST AS WELL SO TRENDED DOWNWARD ON SPEEDS AS WELL.
UPDATE SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD CONV TO THE REGION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT AND START DRIFTING WEST LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURS AND THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUALLY
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CONV POTENTIAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
THE MAV IS COMING IN THE DRIEST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE
MET AND ECMWF WANTING TO HOLD ONTO SOME 30% POPS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM SINCE THE DRIER MAV GUIDANCE IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE MET/MAV/ECMWF
TEMPS AS THE MORE LIMITED CONV COVERAGE TOMORROW MAY ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE BETTER WARMUP OF AFTERNOON HIGHS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WITH THE REGION BETWEEN
RIDGING AND TROUGHING...LOCAL WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED
MOSTLY BY SFC FEATURES. MOISTURE PLUME THAT HAS BEEN SWEEPING NWWD
INTO TEXAS WILL FINALLY START TO DECREASE THIS WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT THEY WILL BE LIMITED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...ENOUGH TO NOT INTERFERE WITH
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS ON THE 4TH. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY...BUT BY MONDAY PW VALUES ARE NOTED AROUND 1.5
INCHES WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITING ON SHOWER FORMATION.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CONV FROM EARLIER TODAY PUSHED
UP THE GULF WINDS AND SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
THESE HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH AS THE CONV HAS DIED DOWN. OUTFLOW
FROM THIS CONV IS PRODUCING SOME DECENT SW SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS FLOW TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MODERATE S-SE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PGF FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT TO
REQUIRE SOME SCEC WORDING OR INTO THURS/THURS NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STANDARD SUMMERTIME SE FLOW CONTINUES
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THIS
WILL KEEP THE WAVE ACTION RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING CHANCES EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 020551 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1251 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
LOW CLOUD DECKS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT MVFR
CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER
THIS EVENING WITH A LOWERING CLOUD DECK AROUND 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...MADE A QUICK UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
WHICH WERE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GOING FORECAST. WINDS ARE LIGHTER
THAN FORECAST AS WELL SO TRENDED DOWNWARD ON SPEEDS AS WELL.
UPDATE SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD CONV TO THE REGION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT AND START DRIFTING WEST LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURS AND THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUALLY
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CONV POTENTIAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
THE MAV IS COMING IN THE DRIEST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE
MET AND ECMWF WANTING TO HOLD ONTO SOME 30% POPS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM SINCE THE DRIER MAV GUIDANCE IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE MET/MAV/ECMWF
TEMPS AS THE MORE LIMITED CONV COVERAGE TOMORROW MAY ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE BETTER WARMUP OF AFTERNOON HIGHS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WITH THE REGION BETWEEN
RIDGING AND TROUGHING...LOCAL WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED
MOSTLY BY SFC FEATURES. MOISTURE PLUME THAT HAS BEEN SWEEPING NWWD
INTO TEXAS WILL FINALLY START TO DECREASE THIS WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT THEY WILL BE LIMITED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...ENOUGH TO NOT INTERFERE WITH
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS ON THE 4TH. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY...BUT BY MONDAY PW VALUES ARE NOTED AROUND 1.5
INCHES WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITING ON SHOWER FORMATION.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CONV FROM EARLIER TODAY PUSHED
UP THE GULF WINDS AND SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
THESE HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH AS THE CONV HAS DIED DOWN. OUTFLOW
FROM THIS CONV IS PRODUCING SOME DECENT SW SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS FLOW TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MODERATE S-SE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PGF FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT TO
REQUIRE SOME SCEC WORDING OR INTO THURS/THURS NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STANDARD SUMMERTIME SE FLOW CONTINUES
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THIS
WILL KEEP THE WAVE ACTION RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING CHANCES EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 020551 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1251 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
LOW CLOUD DECKS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT MVFR
CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER
THIS EVENING WITH A LOWERING CLOUD DECK AROUND 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...MADE A QUICK UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
WHICH WERE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GOING FORECAST. WINDS ARE LIGHTER
THAN FORECAST AS WELL SO TRENDED DOWNWARD ON SPEEDS AS WELL.
UPDATE SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD CONV TO THE REGION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT AND START DRIFTING WEST LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURS AND THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUALLY
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CONV POTENTIAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
THE MAV IS COMING IN THE DRIEST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE
MET AND ECMWF WANTING TO HOLD ONTO SOME 30% POPS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM SINCE THE DRIER MAV GUIDANCE IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE MET/MAV/ECMWF
TEMPS AS THE MORE LIMITED CONV COVERAGE TOMORROW MAY ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE BETTER WARMUP OF AFTERNOON HIGHS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WITH THE REGION BETWEEN
RIDGING AND TROUGHING...LOCAL WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED
MOSTLY BY SFC FEATURES. MOISTURE PLUME THAT HAS BEEN SWEEPING NWWD
INTO TEXAS WILL FINALLY START TO DECREASE THIS WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT THEY WILL BE LIMITED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...ENOUGH TO NOT INTERFERE WITH
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS ON THE 4TH. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY...BUT BY MONDAY PW VALUES ARE NOTED AROUND 1.5
INCHES WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITING ON SHOWER FORMATION.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CONV FROM EARLIER TODAY PUSHED
UP THE GULF WINDS AND SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
THESE HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH AS THE CONV HAS DIED DOWN. OUTFLOW
FROM THIS CONV IS PRODUCING SOME DECENT SW SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS FLOW TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MODERATE S-SE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PGF FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT TO
REQUIRE SOME SCEC WORDING OR INTO THURS/THURS NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STANDARD SUMMERTIME SE FLOW CONTINUES
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THIS
WILL KEEP THE WAVE ACTION RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING CHANCES EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 020331
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1031 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...MADE A QUICK UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
WHICH WERE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GOING FORECAST. WINDS ARE LIGHTER
THAN FORECAST AS WELL SO TRENDED DOWNWARD ON SPEEDS AS WELL.
UPDATE SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD CONV TO THE REGION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT AND START DRIFTING WEST LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURS AND THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUALLY
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CONV POTENTIAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
THE MAV IS COMING IN THE DRIEST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE
MET AND ECMWF WANTING TO HOLD ONTO SOME 30% POPS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM SINCE THE DRIER MAV GUIDANCE IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE MET/MAV/ECMWF
TEMPS AS THE MORE LIMITED CONV COVERAGE TOMORROW MAY ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE BETTER WARMUP OF AFTERNOON HIGHS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WITH THE REGION BETWEEN
RIDGING AND TROUGHING...LOCAL WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED
MOSTLY BY SFC FEATURES. MOISTURE PLUME THAT HAS BEEN SWEEPING NWWD
INTO TEXAS WILL FINALLY START TO DECREASE THIS WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT THEY WILL BE LIMITED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...ENOUGH TO NOT INTERFERE WITH
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS ON THE 4TH. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY...BUT BY MONDAY PW VALUES ARE NOTED AROUND 1.5
INCHES WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITING ON SHOWER FORMATION.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CONV FROM EARLIER TODAY PUSHED
UP THE GULF WINDS AND SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
THESE HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH AS THE CONV HAS DIED DOWN. OUTFLOW
FROM THIS CONV IS PRODUCING SOME DECENT SW SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS FLOW TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MODERATE S-SE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PGF FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT TO
REQUIRE SOME SCEC WORDING OR INTO THURS/THURS NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STANDARD SUMMERTIME SE FLOW CONTINUES
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THIS
WILL KEEP THE WAVE ACTION RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING CHANCES EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55





000
FXUS64 KBRO 020331
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1031 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...MADE A QUICK UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
WHICH WERE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GOING FORECAST. WINDS ARE LIGHTER
THAN FORECAST AS WELL SO TRENDED DOWNWARD ON SPEEDS AS WELL.
UPDATE SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD CONV TO THE REGION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT AND START DRIFTING WEST LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURS AND THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUALLY
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CONV POTENTIAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
THE MAV IS COMING IN THE DRIEST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE
MET AND ECMWF WANTING TO HOLD ONTO SOME 30% POPS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM SINCE THE DRIER MAV GUIDANCE IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE MET/MAV/ECMWF
TEMPS AS THE MORE LIMITED CONV COVERAGE TOMORROW MAY ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE BETTER WARMUP OF AFTERNOON HIGHS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WITH THE REGION BETWEEN
RIDGING AND TROUGHING...LOCAL WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED
MOSTLY BY SFC FEATURES. MOISTURE PLUME THAT HAS BEEN SWEEPING NWWD
INTO TEXAS WILL FINALLY START TO DECREASE THIS WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT THEY WILL BE LIMITED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...ENOUGH TO NOT INTERFERE WITH
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS ON THE 4TH. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY...BUT BY MONDAY PW VALUES ARE NOTED AROUND 1.5
INCHES WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITING ON SHOWER FORMATION.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CONV FROM EARLIER TODAY PUSHED
UP THE GULF WINDS AND SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
THESE HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH AS THE CONV HAS DIED DOWN. OUTFLOW
FROM THIS CONV IS PRODUCING SOME DECENT SW SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS FLOW TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MODERATE S-SE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PGF FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT TO
REQUIRE SOME SCEC WORDING OR INTO THURS/THURS NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STANDARD SUMMERTIME SE FLOW CONTINUES
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THIS
WILL KEEP THE WAVE ACTION RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING CHANCES EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55




000
FXUS64 KBRO 012004
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
304 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD CONV TO THE REGION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT AND START DRIFTING WEST LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURS AND THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUALLY
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CONV POTENTIAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
THE MAV IS COMING IN THE DRIEST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE
MET AND ECMWF WANTING TO HOLD ONTO SOME 30% POPS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM SINCE THE DRIER MAV GUIDANCE IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE MET/MAV/ECMWF
TEMPS AS THE MORE LIMITED CONV COVERAGE TOMORROW MAY ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE BETTER WARMUP OF AFTERNOON HIGHS.


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WITH THE REGION BETWEEN
RIDGING AND TROUGHING...LOCAL WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED
MOSTLY BY SFC FEATURES. MOISTURE PLUME THAT HAS BEEN SWEEPING NWWD
INTO TEXAS WILL FINALLY START TO DECREASE THIS WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT THEY WILL BE LIMITED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...ENOUGH TO NOT INTERFERE WITH
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS ON THE 4TH. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY...BUT BY MONDAY PW VALUES ARE NOTED AROUND 1.5
INCHES WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITING ON SHOWER FORMATION.


.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CONV FROM EARLIER TODAY PUSHED
UP THE GULF WINDS AND SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
THESE HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH AS THE CONV HAS DIED DOWN. OUTFLOW
FROM THIS CONV IS PRODUCING SOME DECENT SW SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS FLOW TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MODERATE S-SE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PGF FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT TO
REQUIRE SOME SCEC WORDING OR INTO THURS/THURS NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STANDARD SUMMERTIME SE FLOW CONTINUES
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THIS
WILL KEEP THE WAVE ACTION RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING CHANCES EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  90  78  89 /  20  20   0  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  91  78  91 /  20  20   0  20
HARLINGEN            77  93  76  93 /  20  20   0  20
MCALLEN              77  95  78  94 /  20  20   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  95  75  95 /  20  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  86  81  86 /  20  20   0  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

58/64




000
FXUS64 KBRO 012004
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
304 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD CONV TO THE REGION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT AND START DRIFTING WEST LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURS AND THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUALLY
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CONV POTENTIAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
THE MAV IS COMING IN THE DRIEST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE
MET AND ECMWF WANTING TO HOLD ONTO SOME 30% POPS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM SINCE THE DRIER MAV GUIDANCE IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE MET/MAV/ECMWF
TEMPS AS THE MORE LIMITED CONV COVERAGE TOMORROW MAY ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE BETTER WARMUP OF AFTERNOON HIGHS.


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WITH THE REGION BETWEEN
RIDGING AND TROUGHING...LOCAL WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED
MOSTLY BY SFC FEATURES. MOISTURE PLUME THAT HAS BEEN SWEEPING NWWD
INTO TEXAS WILL FINALLY START TO DECREASE THIS WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT THEY WILL BE LIMITED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...ENOUGH TO NOT INTERFERE WITH
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS ON THE 4TH. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY...BUT BY MONDAY PW VALUES ARE NOTED AROUND 1.5
INCHES WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITING ON SHOWER FORMATION.


.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CONV FROM EARLIER TODAY PUSHED
UP THE GULF WINDS AND SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
THESE HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH AS THE CONV HAS DIED DOWN. OUTFLOW
FROM THIS CONV IS PRODUCING SOME DECENT SW SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS FLOW TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MODERATE S-SE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PGF FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT TO
REQUIRE SOME SCEC WORDING OR INTO THURS/THURS NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STANDARD SUMMERTIME SE FLOW CONTINUES
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THIS
WILL KEEP THE WAVE ACTION RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING CHANCES EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  90  78  89 /  20  20   0  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  91  78  91 /  20  20   0  20
HARLINGEN            77  93  76  93 /  20  20   0  20
MCALLEN              77  95  78  94 /  20  20   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  95  75  95 /  20  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  86  81  86 /  20  20   0  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

58/64





000
FXUS64 KBRO 011924 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
224 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY IS DISSIPATING AS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE OUTFLOW SPREADS OVER THE RGV. SO EXPECT MAINLY MID
AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLD COVER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE TAF PERIOD ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. LATER IN
THE TAF PERIOD THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
500 MB TROFFING THAT HELPED INITIATE THE MORNING CONV TODAY WILL
SHIFT FURTHER WEST TONIGHT AND THURS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS
WILL IN TURN LIKELY LIMIT THE CONV POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURS. EXPECT ANY CONV THAT FORMS WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN
THE CURRENT TAF OUTLOOK FOR THE RGV. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
A MIX CLOUD OF DECKS...LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST THIS MORNING. CEILINGS RANGE FROM
AROUND 4500 FEET AT MFE TO 12000 FEET AT EBG. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A MID
LEVEL FEATURE MOVES OVERHEAD. LATEST BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS
INCREASING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREA AIRPORTS NOW THROUGH 16Z. CONVECTION MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AT MFE. OTHERWISE...VCSH
AND VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO 500MB RIDGES...ONE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE OTHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ALSO...TWO FEATURES ALOFT PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. ONE IS A 250MB TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW IS PROVIDING SOME CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD. THE OTHER IS A
WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO EXTENDING INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHICH IS BRINGING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST LINE...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD. BROWNSVILLE RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AFFECT
MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF POPS. THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SUGGEST CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS MAY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE STABLE AIRMASS AND
ABUNDANT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LATER
TODAY. SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.06 INCHES PER THE 0Z BRO
SOUNDING...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS/TEXT
PRODUCTS FOR TODAY. THE INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST. DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850
TO 650MB SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST NAM/GFS MOS
NUMBERS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...500 MB LOW PRESSURE
RETROGRADING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARER
THE COAST...THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS 500
MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA RE-CENTERS OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND BECOMES MORE DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. INHERITED HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOKED REASONABLE FOR NOW AND WERE LARGELY RETAINED...BUT WITH
THE 500 MB HIGH BECOMING MORE DOMINANT EARLY NEXT WEEK...DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BEGIN TO BE RAISED BY FUTURE SHIFTS
SOON.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING.
BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 18 KNOTS WITH
SEAS OF 4.3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  90  78  89 /  10  30  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  91  78  91 /  10  30  10  20
HARLINGEN            77  93  76  93 /  10  30  10  20
MCALLEN              77  95  78  94 /  10  30   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  95  75  95 /  10  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  86  81  86 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...64
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65





000
FXUS64 KBRO 011924 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
224 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY IS DISSIPATING AS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE OUTFLOW SPREADS OVER THE RGV. SO EXPECT MAINLY MID
AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLD COVER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE TAF PERIOD ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. LATER IN
THE TAF PERIOD THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
500 MB TROFFING THAT HELPED INITIATE THE MORNING CONV TODAY WILL
SHIFT FURTHER WEST TONIGHT AND THURS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS
WILL IN TURN LIKELY LIMIT THE CONV POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURS. EXPECT ANY CONV THAT FORMS WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN
THE CURRENT TAF OUTLOOK FOR THE RGV. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
A MIX CLOUD OF DECKS...LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST THIS MORNING. CEILINGS RANGE FROM
AROUND 4500 FEET AT MFE TO 12000 FEET AT EBG. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A MID
LEVEL FEATURE MOVES OVERHEAD. LATEST BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS
INCREASING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREA AIRPORTS NOW THROUGH 16Z. CONVECTION MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AT MFE. OTHERWISE...VCSH
AND VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO 500MB RIDGES...ONE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE OTHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ALSO...TWO FEATURES ALOFT PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. ONE IS A 250MB TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW IS PROVIDING SOME CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD. THE OTHER IS A
WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO EXTENDING INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHICH IS BRINGING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST LINE...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD. BROWNSVILLE RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AFFECT
MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF POPS. THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SUGGEST CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS MAY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE STABLE AIRMASS AND
ABUNDANT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LATER
TODAY. SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.06 INCHES PER THE 0Z BRO
SOUNDING...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS/TEXT
PRODUCTS FOR TODAY. THE INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST. DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850
TO 650MB SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST NAM/GFS MOS
NUMBERS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...500 MB LOW PRESSURE
RETROGRADING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARER
THE COAST...THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS 500
MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA RE-CENTERS OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND BECOMES MORE DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. INHERITED HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOKED REASONABLE FOR NOW AND WERE LARGELY RETAINED...BUT WITH
THE 500 MB HIGH BECOMING MORE DOMINANT EARLY NEXT WEEK...DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BEGIN TO BE RAISED BY FUTURE SHIFTS
SOON.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING.
BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 18 KNOTS WITH
SEAS OF 4.3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  90  78  89 /  10  30  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  91  78  91 /  10  30  10  20
HARLINGEN            77  93  76  93 /  10  30  10  20
MCALLEN              77  95  78  94 /  10  30   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  95  75  95 /  10  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  86  81  86 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...64
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65




000
FXUS64 KBRO 011924 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
224 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY IS DISSIPATING AS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE OUTFLOW SPREADS OVER THE RGV. SO EXPECT MAINLY MID
AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLD COVER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE TAF PERIOD ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. LATER IN
THE TAF PERIOD THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
500 MB TROFFING THAT HELPED INITIATE THE MORNING CONV TODAY WILL
SHIFT FURTHER WEST TONIGHT AND THURS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS
WILL IN TURN LIKELY LIMIT THE CONV POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURS. EXPECT ANY CONV THAT FORMS WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN
THE CURRENT TAF OUTLOOK FOR THE RGV. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
A MIX CLOUD OF DECKS...LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST THIS MORNING. CEILINGS RANGE FROM
AROUND 4500 FEET AT MFE TO 12000 FEET AT EBG. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A MID
LEVEL FEATURE MOVES OVERHEAD. LATEST BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS
INCREASING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREA AIRPORTS NOW THROUGH 16Z. CONVECTION MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AT MFE. OTHERWISE...VCSH
AND VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO 500MB RIDGES...ONE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE OTHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ALSO...TWO FEATURES ALOFT PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. ONE IS A 250MB TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW IS PROVIDING SOME CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD. THE OTHER IS A
WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO EXTENDING INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHICH IS BRINGING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST LINE...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD. BROWNSVILLE RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AFFECT
MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF POPS. THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SUGGEST CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS MAY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE STABLE AIRMASS AND
ABUNDANT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LATER
TODAY. SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.06 INCHES PER THE 0Z BRO
SOUNDING...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS/TEXT
PRODUCTS FOR TODAY. THE INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST. DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850
TO 650MB SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST NAM/GFS MOS
NUMBERS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...500 MB LOW PRESSURE
RETROGRADING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARER
THE COAST...THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS 500
MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA RE-CENTERS OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND BECOMES MORE DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. INHERITED HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOKED REASONABLE FOR NOW AND WERE LARGELY RETAINED...BUT WITH
THE 500 MB HIGH BECOMING MORE DOMINANT EARLY NEXT WEEK...DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BEGIN TO BE RAISED BY FUTURE SHIFTS
SOON.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING.
BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 18 KNOTS WITH
SEAS OF 4.3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  90  78  89 /  10  30  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  91  78  91 /  10  30  10  20
HARLINGEN            77  93  76  93 /  10  30  10  20
MCALLEN              77  95  78  94 /  10  30   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  95  75  95 /  10  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  86  81  86 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...64
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65




000
FXUS64 KBRO 011924 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
224 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY IS DISSIPATING AS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE OUTFLOW SPREADS OVER THE RGV. SO EXPECT MAINLY MID
AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLD COVER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE TAF PERIOD ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. LATER IN
THE TAF PERIOD THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
500 MB TROFFING THAT HELPED INITIATE THE MORNING CONV TODAY WILL
SHIFT FURTHER WEST TONIGHT AND THURS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS
WILL IN TURN LIKELY LIMIT THE CONV POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURS. EXPECT ANY CONV THAT FORMS WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN
THE CURRENT TAF OUTLOOK FOR THE RGV. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
A MIX CLOUD OF DECKS...LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST THIS MORNING. CEILINGS RANGE FROM
AROUND 4500 FEET AT MFE TO 12000 FEET AT EBG. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A MID
LEVEL FEATURE MOVES OVERHEAD. LATEST BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS
INCREASING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREA AIRPORTS NOW THROUGH 16Z. CONVECTION MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AT MFE. OTHERWISE...VCSH
AND VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO 500MB RIDGES...ONE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE OTHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ALSO...TWO FEATURES ALOFT PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. ONE IS A 250MB TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW IS PROVIDING SOME CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD. THE OTHER IS A
WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO EXTENDING INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHICH IS BRINGING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST LINE...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD. BROWNSVILLE RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AFFECT
MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF POPS. THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SUGGEST CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS MAY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE STABLE AIRMASS AND
ABUNDANT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LATER
TODAY. SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.06 INCHES PER THE 0Z BRO
SOUNDING...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS/TEXT
PRODUCTS FOR TODAY. THE INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST. DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850
TO 650MB SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST NAM/GFS MOS
NUMBERS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...500 MB LOW PRESSURE
RETROGRADING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARER
THE COAST...THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS 500
MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA RE-CENTERS OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND BECOMES MORE DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. INHERITED HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOKED REASONABLE FOR NOW AND WERE LARGELY RETAINED...BUT WITH
THE 500 MB HIGH BECOMING MORE DOMINANT EARLY NEXT WEEK...DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BEGIN TO BE RAISED BY FUTURE SHIFTS
SOON.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING.
BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 18 KNOTS WITH
SEAS OF 4.3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  90  78  89 /  10  30  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  91  78  91 /  10  30  10  20
HARLINGEN            77  93  76  93 /  10  30  10  20
MCALLEN              77  95  78  94 /  10  30   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  95  75  95 /  10  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  86  81  86 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...64
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65





000
FXUS64 KBRO 011103 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
603 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
A MIX CLOUD OF DECKS...LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST THIS MORNING. CEILINGS RANGE FROM
AROUND 4500 FEET AT MFE TO 12000 FEET AT EBG. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A MID
LEVEL FEATURE MOVES OVERHEAD. LATEST BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS
INCREASING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREA AIRPORTS NOW THROUGH 16Z. CONVECTION MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AT MFE. OTHERWISE...VCSH
AND VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO 500MB RIDGES...ONE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE OTHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ALSO...TWO FEATURES ALOFT PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. ONE IS A 250MB TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW IS PROVIDING SOME CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD. THE OTHER IS A
WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO EXTENDING INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHICH IS BRINGING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST LINE...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD. BROWNSVILLE RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AFFECT
MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF POPS. THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SUGGEST CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS MAY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE STABLE AIRMASS AND
ABUNDANT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LATER
TODAY. SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.06 INCHES PER THE 0Z BRO
SOUNDING...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS/TEXT
PRODUCTS FOR TODAY. THE INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST. DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850
TO 650MB SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST NAM/GFS MOS
NUMBERS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...500 MB LOW PRESSURE
RETROGRADING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARER
THE COAST...THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS 500
MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA RE-CENTERS OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND BECOMES MORE DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. INHERITED HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOKED REASONABLE FOR NOW AND WERE LARGELY RETAINED...BUT WITH
THE 500 MB HIGH BECOMING MORE DOMINANT EARLY NEXT WEEK...DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BEGIN TO BE RAISED BY FUTURE SHIFTS
SOON.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING.
BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 18 KNOTS WITH
SEAS OF 4.3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 010916
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
416 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO 500MB RIDGES...ONE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE OTHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ALSO...TWO FEATURES ALOFT PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. ONE IS A 250MB TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW IS PROVIDING SOME CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD. THE OTHER IS A
WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO EXTENDING INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHICH IS BRINGING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST LINE...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD. BROWNSVILLE RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AFFECT
MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF POPS. THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SUGGEST CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS MAY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE STABLE AIRMASS AND
ABUNDANT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LATER
TODAY. SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.06 INCHES PER THE 0Z BRO
SOUNDING...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS/TEXT
PRODUCTS FOR TODAY. THE INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST. DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850
TO 650MB SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST NAM/GFS MOS
NUMBERS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...500 MB LOW PRESSURE
RETROGRADING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARER
THE COAST...THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS 500
MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA RE-CENTERS OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND BECOMES MORE DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. INHERITED HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOKED REASONABLE FOR NOW AND WERE LARGELY RETAINED...BUT WITH
THE 500 MB HIGH BECOMING MORE DOMINANT EARLY NEXT WEEK...DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BEGIN TO BE RAISED BY FUTURE SHIFTS
SOON.

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING.
BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 18 KNOTS WITH
SEAS OF 4.3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  87  79  90  78 /  50  20  20   0
BROWNSVILLE          89  78  91  78 /  50  20  20   0
HARLINGEN            90  77  93  76 /  50  20  20   0
MCALLEN              92  77  95  78 /  50  20  20   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      93  77  95  75 /  50  20  20   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  82  86  81 /  50  20  20   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...CACERES-63
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
WX4PPT/MESO...BILLINGS-58





000
FXUS64 KBRO 010916
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
416 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO 500MB RIDGES...ONE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE OTHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ALSO...TWO FEATURES ALOFT PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. ONE IS A 250MB TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW IS PROVIDING SOME CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD. THE OTHER IS A
WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO EXTENDING INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHICH IS BRINGING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST LINE...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD. BROWNSVILLE RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AFFECT
MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF POPS. THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SUGGEST CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS MAY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE STABLE AIRMASS AND
ABUNDANT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LATER
TODAY. SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.06 INCHES PER THE 0Z BRO
SOUNDING...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS/TEXT
PRODUCTS FOR TODAY. THE INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST. DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850
TO 650MB SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST NAM/GFS MOS
NUMBERS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...500 MB LOW PRESSURE
RETROGRADING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARER
THE COAST...THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS 500
MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA RE-CENTERS OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND BECOMES MORE DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. INHERITED HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOKED REASONABLE FOR NOW AND WERE LARGELY RETAINED...BUT WITH
THE 500 MB HIGH BECOMING MORE DOMINANT EARLY NEXT WEEK...DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BEGIN TO BE RAISED BY FUTURE SHIFTS
SOON.

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING.
BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 18 KNOTS WITH
SEAS OF 4.3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  87  79  90  78 /  50  20  20   0
BROWNSVILLE          89  78  91  78 /  50  20  20   0
HARLINGEN            90  77  93  76 /  50  20  20   0
MCALLEN              92  77  95  78 /  50  20  20   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      93  77  95  75 /  50  20  20   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  82  86  81 /  50  20  20   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...CACERES-63
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
WX4PPT/MESO...BILLINGS-58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 010611 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
111 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MIX CLOUD DECKS...LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS RANGE FROM
AROUND 1600 FEET AND PIL/HRL...2800 FEET AT MFE...AND 15000 FEET
AT APY/HBV. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF DAY DUE TO A MID LEVEL FEATURE MOVING OVERHEAD.
LATEST BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTION WELL SOUTH
OF THE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE TAF SITES AFTER 08Z
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION IMPACTING LOCAL AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 11-15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4200FT AT KT65. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINUES TO
BRING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
INTO THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE WESTWARD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGE FROM HALF INCH TO CLOSE TO 1 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOT OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER WESTERN WILLACY COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS AROUND 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE HAS
EXPANDED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS WHILE A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE EAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN INCREASE OF
1.92 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING
BETWEEN 75 TO 73 DEGREES AND A VERY DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CLOSE TO
500 MB. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO ASIDE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
COMING FROM THE GULF IS PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AREA TO
ENHANCE MORE STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT MAINLY FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INLAND WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 500 MB 80 PERCENT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SAME PATTERN CONTINUES...THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STREAMER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO OPPOSE ONE ANOTHER...AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THE OVERALL
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN PLAYER LOCALLY FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE GULF MOISTURE. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL
HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE EACH DAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. CURRENT MOISTURE POOL WILL BE SWEEPING NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE
INLAND...BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. EVEN LESS MOISTURE
ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT THE SEABREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A
DRIER DAY FARTHER INLAND. MODELS SHOW A BETTER PLUME IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MIGHT SEE SOME EVENING
NATURAL FIREWORKS. CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE
DIMINISHES FURTHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED DOWNWARD
TREND OF POP CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE MAIN ISSUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMAL FLUCTUATION IN THE LONGER TERM
MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH BRIEF
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SEAS STICK TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RUNNING A 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD THROUGHOUT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 010611 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
111 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MIX CLOUD DECKS...LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS RANGE FROM
AROUND 1600 FEET AND PIL/HRL...2800 FEET AT MFE...AND 15000 FEET
AT APY/HBV. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF DAY DUE TO A MID LEVEL FEATURE MOVING OVERHEAD.
LATEST BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTION WELL SOUTH
OF THE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE TAF SITES AFTER 08Z
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION IMPACTING LOCAL AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 11-15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4200FT AT KT65. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINUES TO
BRING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
INTO THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE WESTWARD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGE FROM HALF INCH TO CLOSE TO 1 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOT OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER WESTERN WILLACY COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS AROUND 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE HAS
EXPANDED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS WHILE A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE EAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN INCREASE OF
1.92 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING
BETWEEN 75 TO 73 DEGREES AND A VERY DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CLOSE TO
500 MB. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO ASIDE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
COMING FROM THE GULF IS PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AREA TO
ENHANCE MORE STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT MAINLY FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INLAND WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 500 MB 80 PERCENT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SAME PATTERN CONTINUES...THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STREAMER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO OPPOSE ONE ANOTHER...AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THE OVERALL
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN PLAYER LOCALLY FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE GULF MOISTURE. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL
HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE EACH DAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. CURRENT MOISTURE POOL WILL BE SWEEPING NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE
INLAND...BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. EVEN LESS MOISTURE
ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT THE SEABREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A
DRIER DAY FARTHER INLAND. MODELS SHOW A BETTER PLUME IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MIGHT SEE SOME EVENING
NATURAL FIREWORKS. CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE
DIMINISHES FURTHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED DOWNWARD
TREND OF POP CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE MAIN ISSUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMAL FLUCTUATION IN THE LONGER TERM
MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH BRIEF
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SEAS STICK TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RUNNING A 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD THROUGHOUT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 010611 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
111 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MIX CLOUD DECKS...LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS RANGE FROM
AROUND 1600 FEET AND PIL/HRL...2800 FEET AT MFE...AND 15000 FEET
AT APY/HBV. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF DAY DUE TO A MID LEVEL FEATURE MOVING OVERHEAD.
LATEST BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTION WELL SOUTH
OF THE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE TAF SITES AFTER 08Z
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION IMPACTING LOCAL AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 11-15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4200FT AT KT65. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINUES TO
BRING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
INTO THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE WESTWARD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGE FROM HALF INCH TO CLOSE TO 1 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOT OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER WESTERN WILLACY COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS AROUND 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE HAS
EXPANDED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS WHILE A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE EAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN INCREASE OF
1.92 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING
BETWEEN 75 TO 73 DEGREES AND A VERY DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CLOSE TO
500 MB. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO ASIDE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
COMING FROM THE GULF IS PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AREA TO
ENHANCE MORE STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT MAINLY FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INLAND WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 500 MB 80 PERCENT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SAME PATTERN CONTINUES...THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STREAMER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO OPPOSE ONE ANOTHER...AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THE OVERALL
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN PLAYER LOCALLY FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE GULF MOISTURE. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL
HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE EACH DAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. CURRENT MOISTURE POOL WILL BE SWEEPING NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE
INLAND...BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. EVEN LESS MOISTURE
ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT THE SEABREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A
DRIER DAY FARTHER INLAND. MODELS SHOW A BETTER PLUME IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MIGHT SEE SOME EVENING
NATURAL FIREWORKS. CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE
DIMINISHES FURTHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED DOWNWARD
TREND OF POP CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE MAIN ISSUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMAL FLUCTUATION IN THE LONGER TERM
MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH BRIEF
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SEAS STICK TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RUNNING A 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD THROUGHOUT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 010611 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
111 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MIX CLOUD DECKS...LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS RANGE FROM
AROUND 1600 FEET AND PIL/HRL...2800 FEET AT MFE...AND 15000 FEET
AT APY/HBV. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF DAY DUE TO A MID LEVEL FEATURE MOVING OVERHEAD.
LATEST BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTION WELL SOUTH
OF THE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE TAF SITES AFTER 08Z
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION IMPACTING LOCAL AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 11-15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4200FT AT KT65. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINUES TO
BRING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
INTO THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE WESTWARD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGE FROM HALF INCH TO CLOSE TO 1 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOT OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER WESTERN WILLACY COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS AROUND 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE HAS
EXPANDED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS WHILE A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE EAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN INCREASE OF
1.92 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING
BETWEEN 75 TO 73 DEGREES AND A VERY DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CLOSE TO
500 MB. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO ASIDE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
COMING FROM THE GULF IS PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AREA TO
ENHANCE MORE STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT MAINLY FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INLAND WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 500 MB 80 PERCENT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SAME PATTERN CONTINUES...THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STREAMER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO OPPOSE ONE ANOTHER...AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THE OVERALL
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN PLAYER LOCALLY FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE GULF MOISTURE. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL
HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE EACH DAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. CURRENT MOISTURE POOL WILL BE SWEEPING NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE
INLAND...BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. EVEN LESS MOISTURE
ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT THE SEABREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A
DRIER DAY FARTHER INLAND. MODELS SHOW A BETTER PLUME IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MIGHT SEE SOME EVENING
NATURAL FIREWORKS. CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE
DIMINISHES FURTHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED DOWNWARD
TREND OF POP CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE MAIN ISSUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMAL FLUCTUATION IN THE LONGER TERM
MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH BRIEF
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SEAS STICK TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RUNNING A 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD THROUGHOUT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





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