000
FXUS64 KBRO 201854
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
154 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TUESDAY WITH A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE MOST PART HOT...HUMID...BREEZY WITH NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE ALONG THE SIERRA
MADRE AND THE APPROACH OF MID LEVEL IMPULSE COULD TRIGGER A FEW
STORMS. WEST TO EAST MID LEVEL FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR THESE STORMS TO
APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE RIVER LATER TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS
ARE THE POPS. AS THE STATIONARY FRONT EDGES CLOSER TO THE BRUSH
COUNTRY ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MAYBE A FEW MORE REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES. NOT ANTICIPATING THE STORMS TO WORK THEIR
WAY INTO THE MID OR LOWER VALLEY WITH A STRONGER CAP IN PLACE. THE
MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A BIT HOSTEL FOR ANY STORM TO
SURVIVE.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT. ALL GUIDANCE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EACH OTHER.
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE BEST FORECAST HERE. WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZY
ON TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTH
TEXAS TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLOW OF THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT SOUTHEAST. AS THIS FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE PROVIDED FROM THE
GULF WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT IT MAY DEVELOP A FEW
SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE CWA. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE OF RECEIVING ANY RAINFALL WITH A 20 PERCENT BUT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST OR
THE UPPER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY LOWERING
TO 15 TO 20 MPH.
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EXTENDING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOUTHEAST GULF MOISTURE SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ENTERS THE PACIFIC NW
REGION. A MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A DISTINCT
DRY LINE ENHANCING SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SIERRA MADRE. EXPECT
A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND INCREMENT INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND MAY REACH THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEK. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LOWER SUNDAY AS THE PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. WITH NO CHANGES IN THIS SE PATTERN THE LOW TEMPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONG IMPULSE TO ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL DEEPEN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ATTACHED TO A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO FAR
NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS WILL IN TURN STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT WARRANTING THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE GRADIENT TO RELAX A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENING AS THE IMPULSE
TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL TUESDAY
WITH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS FOR ALL COASTAL WATER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE ACTUAL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. PERSISTENT SURFACE SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
WEEK WITH WINDS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 20 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. SST WILL CONTINUE TO WARM BETWEEN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. EXPECT THE BREEZE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME NO SCA OR SCEC WILL
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET FOR MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
DOMINATE AND KEEP LOW SEAS IN THE AREA WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 87 77 90 / 0 10 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 78 88 76 92 / 0 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 76 92 75 93 / 0 10 10 10
MCALLEN 78 93 77 96 / 0 10 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 97 77 98 / 10 10 20 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 83 77 87 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ130-132-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY
FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
59/67
000
FXUS64 KBRO 201709
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1209 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS BUT STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WINDS TO GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. WINDS TO PARTIALLY DECOUPLE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. MARINE LAYER SURGES
INLAND OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS REFORMING. MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD FROM
THE COAST INLAND BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z WITH BKN TO OVC LOWER END MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MID TO LATE
THIS MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASING AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
MIXING OUT THE STRATUS. THE STRATUS COULD MIX OUT EARLIER THEN
EXPECTED WITH THE SURFACE INVERSION NARROW. SKIES COULD CLEAR
BEFORE 16Z IF SUFFICIENT MIXING TAKES PLACE. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE. WINDS DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET NEAR THE COAST AND A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET FARTHER WEST WHERE THE STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT PERSIST. STRATUS TO REFORM IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CIGS FIRST AT KBRO AND THEN WORKING WEST AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TODAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL MIX OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM MID 80S ALONG
THE BEACHES...LOW TO MID 90S IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. PATCHY HAZE AND SMOKE
FROM THE AGRICULTURAL FIRES IN MEXICO POSSIBLE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AGAIN TODAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A 500 MB SHORT WAVE
MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX TUES NIGHT
AND WED. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MAY INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD CONV TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WILL MAINTAIN
SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR THESE PERIODS. AFTER THIS SHORT WAVE EXITS
THE REGION TO THE EAST 500 MB RIDGING WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTH TX AS
ANOTHER LARGE 500 MB CLOSED LOW BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES. THIS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES AND MEXICO THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
PRETTY ELEVATED 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SO THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.
THE ECMWF GUIDANCE TRIES TO ADVECT SOME BETTER MOISTURE VALUES UP
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE 700 MB RIDGE AXIS WITH THE BEST VALUES
CONCENTRATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND WEST AND CENTRAL TX
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS ALSO REFLECTS THIS GENERAL TREND BUT
DOES NOT SHOW AS STRONG OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. SO SOME DIURNAL AND
OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN CONV CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH. AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF THIS TREND TO INCLUDE ANY BETTER
POPS OUT WEST AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SILENT 10 POPS FOR NOW.
AS WITH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOW GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH DAY 7. RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT WITH THE MEX
MOS TEMPS AND POPS ARE PRETTY STABLE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND THE
ECMWF TEMPS AND POPS ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MEX GUIDANCE. SO WILL
STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NUMBERS THROUGH SUNDAY.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH THE LONGER TERM FORECAST WORDING IS ABOVE
AVERAGE TODAY.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...CURRENTLY BUOY020 REPORTS SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 17 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 19 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER TIGHT TODAY WITH MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAY WATER.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE FOR WINDS.
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED ON THE GULF
WATERS TODAY. THE WIND FETCH AND LONG DURATION WILL ALLOW BUILDING
SEAS AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 7 FEET AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR EITHER THE LAGUNA MADRE
OR GULF WATERS FOR TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A MODERATE PGF WILL PREVAIL LATER
THIS WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND AFTERWARDS.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
59...AVIATION/SHORT TERM
000
FXUS64 KBRO 201144
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
644 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MID TO LATE
THIS MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASING AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
MIXING OUT THE STRATUS. THE STRATUS COULD MIX OUT EARLIER THEN
EXPECTED WITH THE SURFACE INVERSION NARROW. SKIES COULD CLEAR
BEFORE 16Z IF SUFFICIENT MIXING TAKES PLACE. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE. WINDS DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET NEAR THE COAST AND A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET FARTHER WEST WHERE THE STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT PERSIST. STRATUS TO REFORM IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CIGS FIRST AT KBRO AND THEN WORKING WEST AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TODAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL MIX OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM MID 80S ALONG
THE BEACHES...LOW TO MID 90S IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. PATCHY HAZE AND SMOKE
FROM THE AGRICULTURAL FIRES IN MEXICO POSSIBLE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AGAIN TODAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A 500 MB SHORT WAVE
MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX TUES NIGHT
AND WED. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MAY INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD CONV TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WILL MAINTAIN
SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR THESE PERIODS. AFTER THIS SHORT WAVE EXITS
THE REGION TO THE EAST 500 MB RIDGING WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTH TX AS
ANOTHER LARGE 500 MB CLOSED LOW BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES. THIS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES AND MEXICO THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
PRETTY ELEVATED 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SO THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.
THE ECMWF GUIDANCE TRIES TO ADVECT SOME BETTER MOISTURE VALUES UP
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE 700 MB RIDGE AXIS WITH THE BEST VALUES
CONCENTRATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND WEST AND CENTRAL TX
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS ALSO REFLECTS THIS GENERAL TREND BUT
DOES NOT SHOW AS STRONG OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. SO SOME DIURNAL AND
OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN CONV CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH. AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF THIS TREND TO INCLUDE ANY BETTER
POPS OUT WEST AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SILENT 10 POPS FOR NOW.
AS WITH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOW GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH DAY 7. RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT WITH THE MEX
MOS TEMPS AND POPS ARE PRETTY STABLE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND THE
ECMWF TEMPS AND POPS ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MEX GUIDANCE. SO WILL
STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NUMBERS THROUGH SUNDAY.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH THE LONGER TERM FORECAST WORDING IS ABOVE
AVERAGE TODAY.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...CURRENTLY BUOY020 REPORTS SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 17 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 19 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER TIGHT TODAY WITH MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAY WATER.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE FOR WINDS.
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED ON THE GULF
WATERS TODAY. THE WIND FETCH AND LONG DURATION WILL ALLOW BUILDING
SEAS AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 7 FEET AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR EITHER THE LAGUNA MADRE
OR GULF WATERS FOR TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A MODERATE PGF WILL PREVAIL LATER
THIS WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND AFTERWARDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 78 86 77 / 0 0 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 91 78 90 76 / 0 0 10 10
HARLINGEN 94 77 93 77 / 0 0 10 10
MCALLEN 96 77 95 77 / 0 0 10 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 98 77 99 76 / 0 0 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 75 85 75 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
59/67
000
FXUS64 KBRO 200909
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
409 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TODAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL MIX OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM MID 80S ALONG
THE BEACHES...LOW TO MID 90S IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. PATCHY HAZE AND SMOKE
FROM THE AGRICULTURAL FIRES IN MEXICO POSSIBLE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AGAIN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A 500 MB SHORT WAVE
MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX TUES NIGHT
AND WED. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MAY INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD CONV TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WILL MAINTAIN
SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR THESE PERIODS. AFTER THIS SHORT WAVE EXITS
THE REGION TO THE EAST 500 MB RIDGING WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTH TX AS
ANOTHER LARGE 500 MB CLOSED LOW BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES. THIS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES AND MEXICO THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
PRETTY ELEVATED 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SO THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.
THE ECMWF GUIDANCE TRIES TO ADVECT SOME BETTER MOISTURE VALUES UP
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE 700 MB RIDGE AXIS WITH THE BEST VALUES
CONCENTRATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND WEST AND CENTRAL TX
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS ALSO REFLECTS THIS GENERAL TREND BUT
DOES NOT SHOW AS STRONG OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. SO SOME DIURNAL AND
OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN CONV CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH. AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF THIS TREND TO INCLUDE ANY BETTER
POPS OUT WEST AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SILENT 10 POPS FOR NOW.
AS WITH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOW GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH DAY 7. RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT WITH THE MEX
MOS TEMPS AND POPS ARE PRETTY STABLE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND THE
ECMWF TEMPS AND POPS ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MEX GUIDANCE. SO WILL
STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NUMBERS THROUGH SUNDAY.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH THE LONGER TERM FORECAST WORDING IS ABOVE
AVERAGE TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...CURRENTLY BUOY020 REPORTS SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 17 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 19 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER TIGHT TODAY WITH MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAY WATER.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE FOR WINDS.
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED ON THE GULF
WATERS TODAY. THE WIND FETCH AND LONG DURATION WILL ALLOW BUILDING
SEAS AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 7 FEET AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR EITHER THE LAGUNA MADRE
OR GULF WATERS FOR TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A MODERATE PGF WILL PREVAIL LATER
THIS WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND AFTERWARDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 78 86 77 / 0 0 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 91 78 90 76 / 0 0 10 10
HARLINGEN 94 77 93 77 / 0 0 10 10
MCALLEN 96 77 95 77 / 0 0 10 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 98 77 99 76 / 0 0 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 75 85 75 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...60
UPPER AIR/GRAPHICAST...58
000
FXUS64 KBRO 200604 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
104 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS NEAR THE COAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS APPROACHING IFR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WITH
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS AND RISING CEILINGS. WINDS BEGIN TO
DECREASE AFTER 01Z TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST
PACKAGE...BUT VISIBILITIES REDUCED BY SMOKE AND CEILINGS REDUCED
TO MVFR AND APPROACHING IFR CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. FULL VFR WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS AND RISING CEILINGS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST AS THE EARLY DOG DAYS SETTLE IN
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A SLOW BROAD
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST WILL BE
SLOW IN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE OF NOTE BELOW 925MB.
TONIGHT...MARINE LAYER TO WORK ITS WAY INLAND WITH STRATUS TO REFORM
AT AND BELOW THE SURFACE INVERSION SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
DEEPENING AND SPREADING NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE MONDAY. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER TIGHT TONIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECOUPLING
OF THE WINDS. THE CONSTANT MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZE AND DEVELOPING
OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS 4 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OR IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MONDAY...MODELS SUGGEST AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS CONFIRM THAT
DRIER MID LAYER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE LONE STAR STATE
INCLUDING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY KEEPING US RAIN FREE. SOME LIMITED
RELIEF IN THE HUMIDITY AS THE DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE LOW TO MID 70
DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST BUT NOT SOAR TO HIGH WITH THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS A BIT
SUPPRESSED WITH THE TROUGH DOMINATING MORE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
MONDAY NIGHT...A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
LITTLE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT MODERATE LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
VERY WARM AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS BUILDS INLAND.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY INTO TUESDAY KEEPING A
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
BE CLOSE TO THE CWA. AT THIS TIME...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY IMPACT THE NORTH AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE
VALLEY ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S NEAR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MID WEEK WHILE THE
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL LOWER AND THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL INCREMENT ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY GIVING THE VALLEY ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER
TIGHT WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS TO BE JUST ON THE CUSP OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS...20 KNOTS AND 7 FEET. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE STRONGER
SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS OVER THE BAY TO FALL JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNSET WITH STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS. THE BROADENING OF THE WIND FETCH AND LONG DURATION
HAS BEEN BUILDING SEAS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WITH THIS TREND
CONTINUING SEAS COULD APPROACH 7 FEET AS EARLY AS TONIGHT OR
MONDAY MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING POSTED OFFSHORE.
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN
INCREASE IN SEAS TUESDAY AS A LOW SURFACE PRESSURE STRENGTHENS DUE
TO A FRONT PUSHING SOUTH. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF BUT NO IMPACT EXPECTED FOR THE GULF
WATERS WITH SE WINDS CONTINUING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY WEAK AS
IT MOVES SOUTH...SO DO NOT EXPECT A DRASTIC CHANGE IN WINDS. A SCA
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK SEAS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FEET AS RIDGE BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AND CENTERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS NO MORE THAT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 5 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 86 77 89 / 0 10 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 78 90 76 92 / 0 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 77 93 77 93 / 0 10 10 10
MCALLEN 77 95 77 96 / 0 10 20 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 99 76 98 / 0 10 20 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 85 77 87 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
63
000
FXUS64 KBRO 192327 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
627 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST
PACKAGE...BUT VISIBILITIES REDUCED BY SMOKE AND CEILINGS REDUCED
TO MVFR AND APPROACHING IFR CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. FULL VFR WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS AND RISING CEILINGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST AS THE EARLY DOG DAYS SETTLE IN
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A SLOW BROAD
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST WILL BE
SLOW IN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE OF NOTE BELOW 925MB.
TONIGHT...MARINE LAYER TO WORK ITS WAY INLAND WITH STRATUS TO REFORM
AT AND BELOW THE SURFACE INVERSION SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
DEEPENING AND SPREADING NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE MONDAY. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER TIGHT TONIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECOUPLING
OF THE WINDS. THE CONSTANT MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZE AND DEVELOPING
OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS 4 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OR IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MONDAY...MODELS SUGGEST AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS CONFIRM THAT
DRIER MID LAYER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE LONE STAR STATE
INCLUDING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY KEEPING US RAIN FREE. SOME LIMITED
RELIEF IN THE HUMIDITY AS THE DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE LOW TO MID 70
DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST BUT NOT SOAR TO HIGH WITH THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS A BIT
SUPPRESSED WITH THE TROUGH DOMINATING MORE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
MONDAY NIGHT...A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
LITTLE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT MODERATE LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
VERY WARM AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS BUILDS INLAND.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY INTO TUESDAY KEEPING A
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
BE CLOSE TO THE CWA. AT THIS TIME...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY IMPACT THE NORTH AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE
VALLEY ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S NEAR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MID WEEK WHILE THE
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL LOWER AND THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL INCREMENT ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY GIVING THE VALLEY ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER
TIGHT WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS TO BE JUST ON THE CUSP OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS...20 KNOTS AND 7 FEET. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE STRONGER
SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS OVER THE BAY TO FALL JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNSET WITH STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS. THE BROADENING OF THE WIND FETCH AND LONG DURATION
HAS BEEN BUILDING SEAS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WITH THIS TREND
CONTINUING SEAS COULD APPROACH 7 FEET AS EARLY AS TONIGHT OR
MONDAY MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING POSTED OFFSHORE.
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN
INCREASE IN SEAS TUESDAY AS A LOW SURFACE PRESSURE STRENGTHENS DUE
TO A FRONT PUSHING SOUTH. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF BUT NO IMPACT EXPECTED FOR THE GULF
WATERS WITH SE WINDS CONTINUING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY WEAK AS
IT MOVES SOUTH...SO DO NOT EXPECT A DRASTIC CHANGE IN WINDS. A SCA
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK SEAS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FEET AS RIDGE BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AND CENTERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS NO MORE THAT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 5 FEET.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
000
FXUS64 KBRO 191852
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
152 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST AS THE EARLY DOG DAYS SETTLE IN
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A SLOW BROAD
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST WILL BE
SLOW IN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE OF NOTE BELOW 925MB.
TONIGHT...MARINE LAYER TO WORK ITS WAY INLAND WITH STRATUS TO REFORM
AT AND BELOW THE SURFACE INVERSION SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
DEEPENING AND SPREADING NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE MONDAY. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER TIGHT TONIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECOUPLING
OF THE WINDS. THE CONSTANT MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZE AND DEVELOPING
OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS 4 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OR IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MONDAY...MODELS SUGGEST AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS CONFIRM THAT
DRIER MID LAYER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE LONE STAR STATE
INCLUDING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY KEEPING US RAIN FREE. SOME LIMITED
RELIEF IN THE HUMIDITY AS THE DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE LOW TO MID 70
DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST BUT NOT SOAR TO HIGH WITH THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS A BIT
SUPPRESSED WITH THE TROUGH DOMINATING MORE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
MONDAY NIGHT...A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
LITTLE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT MODERATE LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
VERY WARM AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS BUILDS INLAND.
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY INTO TUESDAY KEEPING A
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
BE CLOSE TO THE CWA. AT THIS TIME...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY IMPACT THE NORTH AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE
VALLEY ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S NEAR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MID WEEK WHILE THE
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL LOWER AND THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL INCREMENT ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY GIVING THE VALLEY ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER
TIGHT WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS TO BE JUST ON THE CUSP OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS...20 KNOTS AND 7 FEET. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE STRONGER
SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS OVER THE BAY TO FALL JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNSET WITH STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS. THE BROADENING OF THE WIND FETCH AND LONG DURATION
HAS BEEN BUILDING SEAS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WITH THIS TREND
CONTINUING SEAS COULD APPROACH 7 FEET AS EARLY AS TONIGHT OR
MONDAY MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING POSTED OFFSHORE.
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN
INCREASE IN SEAS TUESDAY AS A LOW SURFACE PRESSURE STRENGTHENS DUE
TO A FRONT PUSHING SOUTH. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF BUT NO IMPACT EXPECTED FOR THE GULF
WATERS WITH SE WINDS CONTINUING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY WEAK AS
IT MOVES SOUTH...SO DO NOT EXPECT A DRASTIC CHANGE IN WINDS. A SCA
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK SEAS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FEET AS RIDGE BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AND CENTERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS NO MORE THAT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 5 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 90 78 86 / 0 0 0 10
BROWNSVILLE 77 91 78 90 / 0 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 76 94 77 93 / 0 0 0 10
MCALLEN 77 96 77 95 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 81 75 85 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
60/67
000
FXUS64 KBRO 191734 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1234 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...MORNING MARINE STRATUS LAYER CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE
AS DRY AIR MIXES TO THE SURFACE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH FEW-SCT
SKIES EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE HANGING AROUND BUT STRONG SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE AIDING
TO DISPERSE THE SMOKE KEEPING VISIBILITIES RESTRICTIONS 4 TO 6
MILES WHICH SHOULD INCREASE TO BETTER THEN 6 MILES BEFORE 20Z. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS IN TACT WITH MARINE LAYER REFORMING
OVERNIGHT AND SOME SMOKE SETTLING RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES ONCE
AGAIN BETWEEN 4 AND 6 MILES. CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AND APPROACH IFR BY
MONDAY MORNING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS SOUTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS TO MIX OUT THE STRATUS AND HAZE BEFORE 17Z
MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ABOUT THE SAME
TIME FRAME WITH GUSTS OF 24 TO 28KTS EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT A BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK AT AROUND
1800 TO 2200 FT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE EVENING
HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE ARE JUST WEST OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLES
REGION WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
SUBTROPICAL JET IS ORIENTED OVER THE SIERRA MADRES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RESULTS IN MODERATE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
GULF...AND A DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND WEAK LEE
TROUGHING TO OUR WEST.
TODAY...A SENSIBLE WEATHER REPEAT OF SATURDAY IS BASICALLY EXPECTED.
THE WIND DIRECTION MAY BE ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES WEST OF WHAT WE SAW
ON SATURDAY WHICH MAY WARM THINGS UP SLIGHTLY MORE...BUT OVERALL NOT
A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE. CLOUD COVER EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S
EAST...LOW 100S WEST. WIND SPEEDS SOUTH BE ABOUT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 35 MPH RANGE AT PEAK. CURRENT AND PROJECTED GRADIENT
AND MAV/MET GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONDITIONS BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVEL
FOR TODAY. DRIER AIR AT 850MB AND VICINITY SHOULD MIX DOWN WELL
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUR HEAT INDEX AT ABOUT 100 TO 103 EVEN IN THE
WARMEST SPOTS. AGRICULTURAL FIRES FROM THE YUCATAN WILL KEEP HAZE IN
THE AIR THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT...HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING. A STEADY SOUTH BREEZE WILL ALSO KEEP UP OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINT AND CLOUD COVER AS
WELL AS PERSISTENT WIND WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MONDAY...WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXED A BIT. ABOUT A 3 TO 4 MPH DECREASE IN WIND
SPEED WHICH WILL STILL BE BREEZY BY ANY ACCOUNT. THE DRIER NEAR SFC
AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE CLEARING SKIES QUICKLY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND KEEPING PM HUMIDITY SOMEWHAT IN CHECK.
TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR NEAR 90 ALONG 77 AND NEAR 100 IN
ZAPATA COUNTY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...INITIALLY A LARGE
CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING AROUND THE
BOTTOM OF THE CLOSED LOW. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON TUES AND WILL EXIT THE REGION ON WED.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY POOL OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TX AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SOME ISOLD CONV TO FIRE OFF
TUES AND WED WITH ADDITIONAL ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS OVER SOUTHERN TX AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. AFTER
THIS FEATURE EXITS THE REGION MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE STABILITY OF THE ATMS AND
DECREASE OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS.
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF AND CMC ALL POINT
TOWARDS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING FO THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. GOOD RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT SHOWS UP WITH THE LAST
SEVERAL MEX MOS CYCLES. THE ECMWF TEMPS AND POPS ARE ALSO TURNING
UP PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GFS NUMBERS. SO WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF NUMBERS DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH THE LONGER TERM WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE
THIS MORNING.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BAY. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER DURING THE DAY ON THE OPEN GULF WATERS. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT ON
THE GULF WATERS BEFORE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ON MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PGF WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRETTY
STRONG OVER THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES
WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS TO THE EAST. THE PGF WILL LIKELY RELAX
A LITTLE BIT ON WED AND THURS AS THE 500 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARDS. ACCORDINGLY THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A LOWER
PROBABILITY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
59/67
000
FXUS64 KBRO 191146
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
646 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ABOUT THE SAME
TIME FRAME WITH GUSTS OF 24 TO 28KTS EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT A BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK AT AROUND
1800 TO 2200 FT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE EVENING
HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE ARE JUST WEST OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLES
REGION WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
SUBTROPICAL JET IS ORIENTED OVER THE SIERRA MADRES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RESULTS IN MODERATE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
GULF...AND A DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND WEAK LEE
TROUGHING TO OUR WEST.
TODAY...A SENSIBLE WEATHER REPEAT OF SATURDAY IS BASICALLY EXPECTED.
THE WIND DIRECTION MAY BE ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES WEST OF WHAT WE SAW
ON SATURDAY WHICH MAY WARM THINGS UP SLIGHTLY MORE...BUT OVERALL NOT
A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE. CLOUD COVER EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S
EAST...LOW 100S WEST. WIND SPEEDS SOUTH BE ABOUT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 35 MPH RANGE AT PEAK. CURRENT AND PROJECTED GRADIENT
AND MAV/MET GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONDITIONS BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVEL
FOR TODAY. DRIER AIR AT 850MB AND VICINITY SHOULD MIX DOWN WELL
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUR HEAT INDEX AT ABOUT 100 TO 103 EVEN IN THE
WARMEST SPOTS. AGRICULTURAL FIRES FROM THE YUCATAN WILL KEEP HAZE IN
THE AIR THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT...HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING. A STEADY SOUTH BREEZE WILL ALSO KEEP UP OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINT AND CLOUD COVER AS
WELL AS PERSISTENT WIND WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MONDAY...WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXED A BIT. ABOUT A 3 TO 4 MPH DECREASE IN WIND
SPEED WHICH WILL STILL BE BREEZY BY ANY ACCOUNT. THE DRIER NEAR SFC
AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE CLEARING SKIES QUICKLY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND KEEPING PM HUMIDITY SOMEWHAT IN CHECK.
TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR NEAR 90 ALONG 77 AND NEAR 100 IN
ZAPATA COUNTY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...INITIALLY A LARGE
CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING AROUND THE
BOTTOM OF THE CLOSED LOW. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON TUES AND WILL EXIT THE REGION ON WED.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY POOL OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TX AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SOME ISOLD CONV TO FIRE OFF
TUES AND WED WITH ADDITIONAL ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS OVER SOUTHERN TX AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. AFTER
THIS FEATURE EXITS THE REGION MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE STABILITY OF THE ATMS AND
DECREASE OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS.
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF AND CMC ALL POINT
TOWARDS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING FO THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. GOOD RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT SHOWS UP WITH THE LAST
SEVERAL MEX MOS CYCLES. THE ECMWF TEMPS AND POPS ARE ALSO TURNING
UP PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GFS NUMBERS. SO WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF NUMBERS DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH THE LONGER TERM WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE
THIS MORNING.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BAY. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER DURING THE DAY ON THE OPEN GULF WATERS. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT ON
THE GULF WATERS BEFORE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ON MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PGF WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRETTY
STRONG OVER THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES
WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS TO THE EAST. THE PGF WILL LIKELY RELAX
A LITTLE BIT ON WED AND THURS AS THE 500 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARDS. ACCORDINGLY THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A LOWER
PROBABILITY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 77 86 78 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 93 77 90 78 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 94 77 92 77 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 95 77 95 77 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 97 77 96 77 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 76 81 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
59...AVIATION/SHORT TERM
000
FXUS64 KBRO 190848
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
348 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE ARE JUST WEST OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLES
REGION WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
SUBTROPICAL JET IS ORIENTED OVER THE SIERRA MADRES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RESULTS IN MODERATE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
GULF...AND A DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND WEAK LEE
TROUGHING TO OUR WEST.
TODAY...A SENSIBLE WEATHER REPEAT OF SATURDAY IS BASICALLY EXPECTED.
THE WIND DIRECTION MAY BE ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES WEST OF WHAT WE SAW
ON SATURDAY WHICH MAY WARM THINGS UP SLIGHTLY MORE...BUT OVERALL NOT
A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE. CLOUD COVER EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S
EAST...LOW 100S WEST. WIND SPEEDS SOUTH BE ABOUT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 35 MPH RANGE AT PEAK. CURRENT AND PROJECTED GRADIENT
AND MAV/MET GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONDITIONS BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVEL
FOR TODAY. DRIER AIR AT 850MB AND VICINITY SHOULD MIX DOWN WELL
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUR HEAT INDEX AT ABOUT 100 TO 103 EVEN IN THE
WARMEST SPOTS. AGRICULTURAL FIRES FROM THE YUCATAN WILL KEEP HAZE IN
THE AIR THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT...HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING. A STEADY SOUTH BREEZE WILL ALSO KEEP UP OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINT AND CLOUD COVER AS
WELL AS PERSISTENT WIND WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MONDAY...WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXED A BIT. ABOUT A 3 TO 4 MPH DECREASE IN WIND
SPEED WHICH WILL STILL BE BREEZY BY ANY ACCOUNT. THE DRIER NEAR SFC
AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE CLEARING SKIES QUICKLY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND KEEPING PM HUMIDITY SOMEWHAT IN CHECK.
TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR NEAR 90 ALONG 77 AND NEAR 100 IN
ZAPATA COUNTY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...INITIALLY A LARGE
CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING AROUND THE
BOTTOM OF THE CLOSED LOW. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON TUES AND WILL EXIT THE REGION ON WED.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY POOL OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TX AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SOME ISOLD CONV TO FIRE OFF
TUES AND WED WITH ADDITIONAL ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS OVER SOUTHERN TX AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. AFTER
THIS FEATURE EXITS THE REGION MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE STABILITY OF THE ATMS AND
DECREASE OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS.
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF AND CMC ALL POINT
TOWARDS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING FO THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. GOOD RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT SHOWS UP WITH THE LAST
SEVERAL MEX MOS CYCLES. THE ECMWF TEMPS AND POPS ARE ALSO TURNING
UP PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GFS NUMBERS. SO WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF NUMBERS DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH THE LONGER TERM WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE
THIS MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BAY. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER DURING THE DAY ON THE OPEN GULF WATERS. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT ON
THE GULF WATERS BEFORE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ON MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PGF WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRETTY
STRONG OVER THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES
WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS TO THE EAST. THE PGF WILL LIKELY RELAX
A LITTLE BIT ON WED AND THURS AS THE 500 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARDS. ACCORDINGLY THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A LOWER
PROBABILITY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 77 86 78 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 93 77 90 78 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 94 77 92 77 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 95 77 95 77 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 97 77 96 77 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 76 81 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM...60
000
FXUS64 KBRO 182310 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
610 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST
PACKAGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
GENERALLY A BROKEN RECORD FORECAST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SLOWLY
DEVELOPING/MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL ENHANCE THE SEMI-PERMANENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LEE
OF THE SIERRA MADRE AND THE WESTERN GULF FOR ONE MORE DAY. THAT
MEANS GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WITH SUSTAINED VALUES RAMPING INTO THE LOW-MID 20S
AND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS...FOLLOWED BY THE
NOCTURNAL DROP TOWARD BUT NOT BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
AS FOR CLOUDS...DRY AIR WITHIN THE INVERSION ENSURES RAPID MIX-OUT
OF THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING SOUP...WHICH WILL FLIRT
WITH THE IFR/MVFR BOUNDARY AT 1K FEET BETWEEN 06Z AND 13Z. ONCE
MIXED...SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CIRRUS PREVAILS THOUGH
HIGH LEVEL DRYING APPEARS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST...SMOKE FROM THE LAST OF AGRICULTURAL BURNING IN
YUCATAN STATE WILL CONTINUE ON A TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE VALLEY AND
SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS HAZE/MIST. VISIBILITY
SHOULD RISE ABOVE THRESHOLDS NEAR THE GROUND...BUT HAZE ALOFT
LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS FOR SUNDAY WHICH COULD RESTRICT
VISIBILITY A LITTLE IN THE MIXING LAYER...3 TO 5K FEET OR SO...ON
APPROACH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SUMMER SWELTER HAS ARRIVED
FOR THIS WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BE MORE LIKE LATE
JUNE AND EARLY JULY THAN MID MAY. THAT SAID...THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS
HAVE HAD STRETCHES IN MAY THAT WERE SIMILAR IF NOT HOTTER...AND THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NOW AND JULY IS THE GENERAL STRENGTH OF
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH OWES TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...HAZY SKIES AND MODERATE
TO UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY COURTESY OF THE LAST OF THE AGRICULTURAL
BURNING IN YUCATAN DON`T TYPICALLY COME WITH LATE JUNE/JULY HEAT.
SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MID/UPPER FLOW INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL DO
LITTLE TO AFFECT SENSIBLE WEATHER...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
SULTRY NIGHTS WITH LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY DEVELOPING AND BECOMING
OVERCAST BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...BOOKENDING A HAZY HOT AND BREEZY DAY ON
SUNDAY. THE SUBTLE CHANGE...WHICH INVOLVES A FLATTENING 500 MB
RIDGE AND VEERING WINDS ABOVE 700 MB TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...SHOULD
REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH THIS
(SATURDAY) AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS...1000-500 MB THICKNESS...850
TEMPERATURE...ETC. PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO EXPECT NEARLY THE SAME
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY AS THEY WERE ON FRIDAY
AND TODAY. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE 90S EXCEPT JUST OVER 100 ACROSS
THE ZAPATA PLAINS...LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES...AND FEELS LIKE
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER 100 IN ALL AREAS EACH AFTERNOON.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S TOWARD THE COAST
BY MID EVENING AND HOLD ALL NIGHT...WITH LOWER TO MID 80S WELL
INLAND BY MIDNIGHT FALLING INTO THE 70S BEFORE DAYBREAK.
AS FOR AIR QUALITY...VALUES FOR FINE PARTICULATE
MATTER...DUST/HAZE/SMOKE ETC...PASSED 100 THIS MORNING MID VALLEY
WHICH PUTS HIDALGO/WESTERN CAMERON/STARR IN UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE
GROUPS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH NOTHING TO CHANGE
THE TYPE OF AIR MASS AND THE LONG FETCH COMING FROM THE YUCATAN.
WHILE THE WIND TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE PARTICULATES...THE STRENGTH OF
THE WIND MIXES THEM TO A DEGREE AND SHOULD KEEP VALUES FROM RISING
INTO MORE DANGEROUS TERRITORY. FOR MORE...SURF TO
HTTP://TCEQ.TEXAS.GOV AND CLICK ON "AIR".
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A LARGE CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL
BE POSITIONED FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW IN MOVING EAST
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NOT MOVING EAST OF TEXAS UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY.
A HOT AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL SET UP OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TO
PROVIDE ANY HIGHER THEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS
ALREADY IN THE FORECAST ANYTIME FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES STILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THIS AREA. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INITIATION OF CONVECTION IS
LIKELY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS
PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OR OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE.
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO AND POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS
REMAIN PERSISTENT ON THIS SCENARIO BUT GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN RATHER
LOW WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LIMITED UP TO 800MB. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS
PASSES TO THE EAST AND STRONG 500MB HIGH BUILDS BACK NORTH FROM
MEXICO THE THREAT FOR THUNDER AND ANY CHANCE OF RAIN ENDS. THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS DRY.
TEMPERATURES START OFF HOT WITH THE WARMEST 850MB TEMPERATURES OF
THE WEEK RUNNING 23-25C. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO TEXAS AND
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LOWER TEMPERATURES DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO AROUND 20C BY THURSDAY. SURFACE TEMPS FOLLOW THIS TREND
WITH THE MAX TEMPS PEAKING MONDAY AND LOWERING TO NORMAL BY MID
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN RATHER WARM AND SULTRY WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NOT ABATING MUCH AT LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...STATUS QUO HERE AS
WELL...WITH THE USUAL FLIP-FLOP OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
AND LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE OVERNIGHT BECOMING
STRONGER ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND SOMEWHAT LIGHTER OVER THE
DEEPER GULF WHERE THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME
SYNOPTIC FORCING PROVIDED BY THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...WHICH NEVER
REALLY STRENGTHENS OWING TO THE STEADY STATE CONDITION OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW.
THUS...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/WINDS FOR LAGUNA
MADRE WATERS ON SUNDAY...WITH CAUTION CONDITIONS AT MOST DURING THE
DAY ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO EDGE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT
REMAIN JUST BELOW. WINDS IN THE 850-925 LAYER SIT IN THE 25-29 KNOT
RANGE TONIGHT WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH WATER TEMPERATURES AT OR A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN AMBIENT AIR SHOULD PROVIDE A RARE NOCTURNAL
MARINE LAYER TO KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 16-18 KNOT RANGE WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 20-23 KNOTS OR SO. SUNDAY NIGHT COULD PUSH ACROSS
THE 20 KNOT SUSTAINED THRESHOLD AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE A COUPLE
KNOTS WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENING JUST A TAD. FOR
NOW...HAVE WORDED AS `NEAR 20 KNOTS`.
SEAS HAVE RISEN TOWARD 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON OFFSHORE AND EXPECT
VALUES TO MAINTAIN OR RISE A LITTLE MORE OVERNIGHT. DID NOT POP A 6
FOOT FORECAST JUST YET BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK TO REMAIN
NEAR SCEC LEVELS OR EVEN PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAGUNA. THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO TEXAS.
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ALONG THE UPPER GULF COAST WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST THURSDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS AND SEAS
LOWERING SLIGHTLY.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
000
FXUS64 KBRO 181857
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
157 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SUMMER SWELTER HAS ARRIVED
FOR THIS WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BE MORE LIKE LATE
JUNE AND EARLY JULY THAN MID MAY. THAT SAID...THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS
HAVE HAD STRETCHES IN MAY THAT WERE SIMILAR IF NOT HOTTER...AND THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NOW AND JULY IS THE GENERAL STRENGTH OF
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH OWES TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...HAZY SKIES AND MODERATE
TO UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY COURTESY OF THE LAST OF THE AGRICULTURAL
BURNING IN YUCATAN DON`T TYPICALLY COME WITH LATE JUNE/JULY HEAT.
SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MID/UPPER FLOW INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL DO
LITTLE TO AFFECT SENSIBLE WEATHER...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
SULTRY NIGHTS WITH LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY DEVELOPING AND BECOMING
OVERCAST BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...BOOKENDING A HAZY HOT AND BREEZY DAY ON
SUNDAY. THE SUBTLE CHANGE...WHICH INVOLVES A FLATTENING 500 MB
RIDGE AND VEERING WINDS ABOVE 700 MB TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...SHOULD
REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH THIS
(SATURDAY) AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS...1000-500 MB THICKNESS...850
TEMPERATURE...ETC. PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO EXPECT NEARLY THE SAME
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY AS THEY WERE ON FRIDAY
AND TODAY. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE 90S EXCEPT JUST OVER 100 ACROSS
THE ZAPATA PLAINS...LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES...AND FEELS LIKE
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER 100 IN ALL AREAS EACH AFTERNOON.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S TOWARD THE COAST
BY MID EVENING AND HOLD ALL NIGHT...WITH LOWER TO MID 80S WELL
INLAND BY MIDNIGHT FALLING INTO THE 70S BEFORE DAYBREAK.
AS FOR AIR QUALITY...VALUES FOR FINE PARTICULATE
MATTER...DUST/HAZE/SMOKE ETC...PASSED 100 THIS MORNING MID VALLEY
WHICH PUTS HIDALGO/WESTERN CAMERON/STARR IN UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE
GROUPS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH NOTHING TO CHANGE
THE TYPE OF AIR MASS AND THE LONG FETCH COMING FROM THE YUCATAN.
WHILE THE WIND TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE PARTICULATES...THE STRENGTH OF
THE WIND MIXES THEM TO A DEGREE AND SHOULD KEEP VALUES FROM RISING
INTO MORE DANGEROUS TERRITORY. FOR MORE...SURF TO
HTTP://TCEQ.TEXAS.GOV AND CLICK ON "AIR".
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A LARGE CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL
BE POSITIONED FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW IN MOVING EAST
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NOT MOVING EAST OF TEXAS UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY.
A HOT AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL SET UP OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TO
PROVIDE ANY HIGHER THEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS
ALREADY IN THE FORECAST ANYTIME FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES STILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THIS AREA. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INITIATION OF CONVECTION IS
LIKELY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS
PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OR OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE.
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO AND POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS
REMAIN PERSISTENT ON THIS SCENARIO BUT GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN RATHER
LOW WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LIMITED UP TO 800MB. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS
PASSES TO THE EAST AND STRONG 500MB HIGH BUILDS BACK NORTH FROM
MEXICO THE THREAT FOR THUNDER AND ANY CHANCE OF RAIN ENDS. THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS DRY.
TEMPERATURES START OFF HOT WITH THE WARMEST 850MB TEMPERATURES OF
THE WEEK RUNNING 23-25C. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO TEXAS AND
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LOWER TEMPERATURES DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO AROUND 20C BY THURSDAY. SURFACE TEMPS FOLLOW THIS TREND
WITH THE MAX TEMPS PEAKING MONDAY AND LOWERING TO NORMAL BY MID
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN RATHER WARM AND SULTRY WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NOT ABATING MUCH AT LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...STATUS QUO HERE AS
WELL...WITH THE USUAL FLIP-FLOP OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
AND LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE OVERNIGHT BECOMING
STRONGER ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND SOMEWHAT LIGHTER OVER THE
DEEPER GULF WHERE THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME
SYNOPTIC FORCING PROVIDED BY THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...WHICH NEVER
REALLY STRENGTHENS OWING TO THE STEADY STATE CONDITION OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW.
THUS...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/WINDS FOR LAGUNA
MADRE WATERS ON SUNDAY...WITH CAUTION CONDITIONS AT MOST DURING THE
DAY ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO EDGE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT
REMAIN JUST BELOW. WINDS IN THE 850-925 LAYER SIT IN THE 25-29 KNOT
RANGE TONIGHT WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH WATER TEMPERATURES AT OR A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN AMBIENT AIR SHOULD PROVIDE A RARE NOCTURNAL
MARINE LAYER TO KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 16-18 KNOT RANGE WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 20-23 KNOTS OR SO. SUNDAY NIGHT COULD PUSH ACROSS
THE 20 KNOT SUSTAINED THRESHOLD AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE A COUPLE
KNOTS WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENING JUST A TAD. FOR
NOW...HAVE WORDED AS `NEAR 20 KNOTS`.
SEAS HAVE RISEN TOWARD 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON OFFSHORE AND EXPECT
VALUES TO MAINTAIN OR RISE A LITTLE MORE OVERNIGHT. DID NOT POP A 6
FOOT FORECAST JUST YET BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK TO REMAIN
NEAR SCEC LEVELS OR EVEN PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAGUNA. THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO TEXAS.
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ALONG THE UPPER GULF COAST WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST THURSDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS AND SEAS
LOWERING SLIGHTLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 92 77 86 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 77 93 77 90 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 77 94 77 92 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 77 95 77 95 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 97 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 83 76 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
52...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KBRO 181750 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1250 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...GENERALLY A BROKEN RECORD FORECAST INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SLOWLY DEVELOPING/MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ENHANCE THE SEMI-PERMANENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE AND THE WESTERN GULF FOR ONE
MORE DAY. THAT MEANS GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM MID TO LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH SUSTAINED VALUES RAMPING INTO
THE LOW-MID 20S AND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KNOTS FOR A FEW
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY THE NOCTURNAL DROP TOWARD BUT NOT BELOW 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
AS FOR CLOUDS...DRY AIR WITHIN THE INVERSION ENSURES RAPID MIX-OUT
OF THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING SOUP...WHICH WILL FLIRT
WITH THE IFR/MVFR BOUNDARY AT 1K FEET BETWEEN 06Z AND 13Z. ONCE
MIXED...SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CIRRUS PREVAILS THOUGH
HIGH LEVEL DRYING APPEARS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST...SMOKE FROM THE LAST OF AGRICULTURAL BURNING IN
YUCATAN STATE WILL CONTINUE ON A TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE VALLEY AND
SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS HAZE/MIST. VISIBILITY
SHOULD RISE ABOVE THRESHOLDS NEAR THE GROUND...BUT HAZE ALOFT
LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS FOR SUNDAY WHICH COULD RESTRICT
VISIBILITY A LITTLE IN THE MIXING LAYER...3 TO 5K FEET OR SO...ON
APPROACH.
52/BSG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS RAGGED LOW LEVEL SC DECKS
PERSISTING MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING
OVER THE REGION. THE LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LOWER
RGV INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY MOIST AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WILL PERSIST ON THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LIKELY MAINTAINING
IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER
SUNRISE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
ERODE AWAY THE CEILINGS ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. THE
NIGHTTIME LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL THEN REFORM AGAIN LATE SAT NIGHT
POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR SOME MORE PATCHY LOW SC FROM 06 TO 12Z SAT.
FOR AVIATION INTERESTS HEADING SOUTH INTO MEXICO MOUNT
POPOCATEPETL...LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MEXICO CITY...HAS GOTTEN MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS PERIODICALLY RELEASING ASH
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. SO FAR NONE OF THESE ASH CLOUDS HAVE
HAD ANY IMPACT TO AVIATION INTERESTS IN THE LOWER RGV. HOWEVER
PILOTS FLYING INTO MEXICO SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST VOLCANIC
ASH ADVISORIES ISSUED FROM THE WASHINGTON VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY
CENTER (VAAC). THESE ADVISORIES CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB
ADDRESS...WWW.OSPO.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ATMOSPHERE/VAAC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HEAT...HUMIDITY AND HAZE WILL
BE THE ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS RIDGING WILL START TO
ERODE AWAY AS A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH/CLOSED LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. ALTHOUGH THE
MID LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO ERODE TOMORROW 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY ELEVATED. THE WAA WILL ALSO CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTH ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROFFING/CLOSED LOW MAINTAINS THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THE NAM TEMP GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB REFLECTED
OVERALL TRENDS VERSUS THE ECMWF AND THE MAV WHICH APPEARS TO BE
LAGGING BEHIND ON THE MAX TEMPS. WILL BE GOING AT AND ABOVE MET
NUMBERS FOR HIGHS AND A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS FOR MINS.
THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM TCEQ INDICATES THAT SMOKE AND HAZE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT NORTH OVER DEEP SOUTH TX FROM AG FIRES BURING IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SO WILL MENTION HAZE THROUGHOUT TODAY
AND SUN MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH AN INITIAL PLAINS TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND A SECOND TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PANHANDLES REGION.
THE WARMEST MAX TEMPS FOR THE WEEK WILL PROBABLY OCCUR MONDAY WITH A
DRY PREVIOUSLY SUBSIDED COLUMN NOT HAVING MODIFIED YET FROM THE
APPROACHING TROUGH.
THIS TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A BIT OF A COURSE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED A TREND WITH DIGGING A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN IT DID EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THIS PRODUCES STRONG LAYER WARM
ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST 200MB OR SO...AT THE VERY LEAST INCREASING
LOW/MID CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY...BUT GFS/ECMWF FORECAST SOUNDINGS
POINT TOWARDS ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO ALLOW
FOR ABOUT 2500 TO 3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH...AT LEAST
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRES. CONVECTION ALSO APPEARS TO
INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ON THE
MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND THE FLOW PATTERN WOULD FAVOR IT MOVING INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IF IT WERE TO KEEP GOING. WITH THAT
CONSIDERED...ADDED A SCHC OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE MORE FAVORED TIME
FRAME FOR ACTIVITY...MAINLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTHWEST SHIFTING EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE CAPPING IN PLACE
DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB WINDS AND BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
SOURCES OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE ARE MORE LIMITED BUT WITH THE
REASONABLE POSSIBILITY OF PREVIOUSLY GENERATED BOUNDARIES IN THE
AREA...INCLUDING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA SEEMS
PRUDENT. THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY
BUT BY THEN UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN AHEAD OF A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM AND SUSPECT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE STRONG.
LOOKING AT THE POLAR JET STRUCTURE A FAIRLY COMPLEX EVOLUTION WILL
PLAY OUT IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG AND
WHETHER WE WILL BE IN PLAY FOR RAIN/THUNDER. THE MOMENTUM GETS
MAINLY TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE PLAINS TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE
PANHANDLES REGION MAKING ME SKEPTICAL AS TO ITS CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTWARD DIGGING...HOWEVER RIDGING BUILDING AHEAD OF A SHARP
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WOULD PROBABLY
KEEP ENOUGH OF A KICKER JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH TO KEEP IT
MOVING TO ABOUT WHERE THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE IT LOCATED. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS
SO CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN A MORE PRECIP FRIENDLY PATTERN
FOR THE AREA...THUS THE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. STILL KEPT THE
POPS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE INHERENT COMPLEXITY OF WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY
PLAY OUT.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SHARP UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT COLUMN THICKNESSES TO RISE WITH DRYING MIDDLE LEVELS. WE LOSE
OUR PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL JET GENERATING LEE TROUGHING THOUGH SO
THE ACTUAL SFC FLOW MAY BE MORE EASTERLY AND ONSHORE...SO PAINTED
WARMER HIGHS OUT WEST BUT MODERATED JUST A BIT IN COASTAL LOCATIONS
IN DAYS 6 AND 7. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INDUCED CAPPING. /68-JGG/
MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
STRONG S-SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS
THROUGH SUN. THE PGF WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH NEAR THE COASTLINE TO
PUSH CONDITIONS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COOLER WATERS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ OVER
THE REGION. SO WILL MENTION SCEC CONDITIONS THERE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THE GULF SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MAY CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE LIGHTER ON TUESDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...POSSIBLY FALLING TO LOW TO MODERATE BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
000
FXUS64 KBRO 181126 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
626 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS RAGGED LOW LEVEL SC DECKS
PERSISTING MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING
OVER THE REGION. THE LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LOWER
RGV INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY MOIST AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WILL PERSIST ON THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LIKELY MAINTAINING
IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER
SUNRISE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
ERODE AWAY THE CEILINGS ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. THE
NIGHTTIME LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL THEN REFORM AGAIN LATE SAT NIGHT
POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR SOME MORE PATCHY LOW SC FROM 06 TO 12Z SAT.
FOR AVIATION INTERESTS HEADING SOUTH INTO MEXICO MOUNT
POPOCATEPETL...LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MEXICO CITY...HAS GOTTEN MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS PERIODICALLY RELEASING ASH
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. SO FAR NONE OF THESE ASH CLOUDS HAVE
HAD ANY IMPACT TO AVIATION INTERESTS IN THE LOWER RGV. HOWEVER
PILOTS FLYING INTO MEXICO SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST VOLCANIC
ASH ADVISORIES ISSUED FROM THE WASHINGTON VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY
CENTER (VAAC). THESE ADVISORIES CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB
ADDRESS...WWW.OSPO.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ATMOSPHERE/VAAC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HEAT...HUMIDITY AND HAZE WILL
BE THE ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS RIDGING WILL START TO
ERODE AWAY AS A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH/CLOSED LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. ALTHOUGH THE
MID LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO ERODE TOMORROW 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY ELEVATED. THE WAA WILL ALSO CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTH ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROFFING/CLOSED LOW MAINTAINS THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THE NAM TEMP GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB REFLECTED
OVERALL TRENDS VERSUS THE ECMWF AND THE MAV WHICH APPEARS TO BE
LAGGING BEHIND ON THE MAX TEMPS. WILL BE GOING AT AND ABOVE MET
NUMBERS FOR HIGHS AND A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS FOR MINS.
THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM TCEQ INDICATES THAT SMOKE AND HAZE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT NORTH OVER DEEP SOUTH TX FROM AG FIRES BURING IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SO WILL MENTION HAZE THROUGHOUT TODAY
AND SUN MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH AN INITIAL PLAINS TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND A SECOND TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PANHANDLES REGION.
THE WARMEST MAX TEMPS FOR THE WEEK WILL PROBABLY OCCUR MONDAY WITH A
DRY PREVIOUSLY SUBSIDED COLUMN NOT HAVING MODIFIED YET FROM THE
APPROACHING TROUGH.
THIS TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A BIT OF A COURSE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED A TREND WITH DIGGING A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN IT DID EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THIS PRODUCES STRONG LAYER WARM
ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST 200MB OR SO...AT THE VERY LEAST INCREASING
LOW/MID CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY...BUT GFS/ECMWF FORECAST SOUNDINGS
POINT TOWARDS ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO ALLOW
FOR ABOUT 2500 TO 3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH...AT LEAST
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRES. CONVECTION ALSO APPEARS TO
INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ON THE
MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND THE FLOW PATTERN WOULD FAVOR IT MOVING INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IF IT WERE TO KEEP GOING. WITH THAT
CONSIDERED...ADDED A SCHC OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE MORE FAVORED TIME
FRAME FOR ACTIVITY...MAINLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTHWEST SHIFTING EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE CAPPING IN PLACE
DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB WINDS AND BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
SOURCES OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE ARE MORE LIMITED BUT WITH THE
REASONABLE POSSIBILITY OF PREVIOUSLY GENERATED BOUNDARIES IN THE
AREA...INCLUDING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA SEEMS
PRUDENT. THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY
BUT BY THEN UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN AHEAD OF A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM AND SUSPECT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE STRONG.
LOOKING AT THE POLAR JET STRUCTURE A FAIRLY COMPLEX EVOLUTION WILL
PLAY OUT IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG AND
WHETHER WE WILL BE IN PLAY FOR RAIN/THUNDER. THE MOMENTUM GETS
MAINLY TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE PLAINS TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE
PANHANDLES REGION MAKING ME SKEPTICAL AS TO ITS CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTWARD DIGGING...HOWEVER RIDGING BUILDING AHEAD OF A SHARP
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WOULD PROBABLY
KEEP ENOUGH OF A KICKER JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH TO KEEP IT
MOVING TO ABOUT WHERE THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE IT LOCATED. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS
SO CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN A MORE PRECIP FRIENDLY PATTERN
FOR THE AREA...THUS THE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. STILL KEPT THE
POPS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE INHERENT COMPLEXITY OF WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY
PLAY OUT.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SHARP UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT COLUMN THICKNESSES TO RISE WITH DRYING MIDDLE LEVELS. WE LOSE
OUR PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL JET GENERATING LEE TROUGHING THOUGH SO
THE ACTUAL SFC FLOW MAY BE MORE EASTERLY AND ONSHORE...SO PAINTED
WARMER HIGHS OUT WEST BUT MODERATED JUST A BIT IN COASTAL LOCATIONS
IN DAYS 6 AND 7. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INDUCED CAPPING. /68-JGG/
MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
STRONG S-SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS
THROUGH SUN. THE PGF WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH NEAR THE COASTLINE TO
PUSH CONDITIONS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COOLER WATERS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ OVER
THE REGION. SO WILL MENTION SCEC CONDITIONS THERE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THE GULF SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MAY CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE LIGHTER ON TUESDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...POSSIBLY FALLING TO LOW TO MODERATE BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 75 92 75 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 93 75 93 75 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 94 75 93 75 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 97 76 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 97 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 75 86 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...59
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...58
000
FXUS64 KBRO 180859
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
359 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HEAT...HUMIDITY AND HAZE WILL
BE THE ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS RIDGING WILL START TO
ERODE AWAY AS A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH/CLOSED LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. ALTHOUGH THE
MID LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO ERODE TOMORROW 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY ELEVATED. THE WAA WILL ALSO CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTH ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROFFING/CLOSED LOW MAINTAINS THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THE NAM TEMP GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB REFLECTED
OVERALL TRENDS VERSUS THE ECMWF AND THE MAV WHICH APPEARS TO BE
LAGGING BEHIND ON THE MAX TEMPS. WILL BE GOING AT AND ABOVE MET
NUMBERS FOR HIGHS AND A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS FOR MINS.
THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM TCEQ INDICATES THAT SMOKE AND HAZE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT NORTH OVER DEEP SOUTH TX FROM AG FIRES BURING IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SO WILL MENTION HAZE THROUGHOUT TODAY
AND SUN MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH AN INITIAL PLAINS TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND A SECOND TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PANHANDLES REGION.
THE WARMEST MAX TEMPS FOR THE WEEK WILL PROBABLY OCCUR MONDAY WITH A
DRY PREVIOUSLY SUBSIDED COLUMN NOT HAVING MODIFIED YET FROM THE
APPROACHING TROUGH.
THIS TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A BIT OF A COURSE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED A TREND WITH DIGGING A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN IT DID EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THIS PRODUCES STRONG LAYER WARM
ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST 200MB OR SO...AT THE VERY LEAST INCREASING
LOW/MID CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY...BUT GFS/ECMWF FORECAST SOUNDINGS
POINT TOWARDS ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO ALLOW
FOR ABOUT 2500 TO 3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH...AT LEAST
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRES. CONVECTION ALSO APPEARS TO
INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ON THE
MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND THE FLOW PATTERN WOULD FAVOR IT MOVING INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IF IT WERE TO KEEP GOING. WITH THAT
CONSIDERED...ADDED A SCHC OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE MORE FAVORED TIME
FRAME FOR ACTIVITY...MAINLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTHWEST SHIFTING EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE CAPPING IN PLACE
DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB WINDS AND BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
SOURCES OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE ARE MORE LIMITED BUT WITH THE
REASONABLE POSSIBILITY OF PREVIOUSLY GENERATED BOUNDARIES IN THE
AREA...INCLUDING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA SEEMS
PRUDENT. THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY
BUT BY THEN UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN AHEAD OF A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM AND SUSPECT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE STRONG.
LOOKING AT THE POLAR JET STRUCTURE A FAIRLY COMPLEX EVOLUTION WILL
PLAY OUT IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG AND
WHETHER WE WILL BE IN PLAY FOR RAIN/THUNDER. THE MOMENTUM GETS
MAINLY TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE PLAINS TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE
PANHANDLES REGION MAKING ME SKEPTICAL AS TO ITS CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTWARD DIGGING...HOWEVER RIDGING BUILDING AHEAD OF A SHARP
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WOULD PROBABLY
KEEP ENOUGH OF A KICKER JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH TO KEEP IT
MOVING TO ABOUT WHERE THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE IT LOCATED. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS
SO CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN A MORE PRECIP FRIENDLY PATTERN
FOR THE AREA...THUS THE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. STILL KEPT THE
POPS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE INHERENT COMPLEXITY OF WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY
PLAY OUT.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SHARP UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT COLUMN THICKNESSES TO RISE WITH DRYING MIDDLE LEVELS. WE LOSE
OUR PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL JET GENERATING LEE TROUGHING THOUGH SO
THE ACTUAL SFC FLOW MAY BE MORE EASTERLY AND ONSHORE...SO PAINTED
WARMER HIGHS OUT WEST BUT MODERATED JUST A BIT IN COASTAL LOCATIONS
IN DAYS 6 AND 7. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INDUCED CAPPING. /68-JGG/
&&
.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
STRONG S-SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS
THROUGH SUN. THE PGF WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH NEAR THE COASTLINE TO
PUSH CONDITIONS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COOLER WATERS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ OVER
THE REGION. SO WILL MENTION SCEC CONDITIONS THERE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THE GULF SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MAY CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE LIGHTER ON TUESDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...POSSIBLY FALLING TO LOW TO MODERATE BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 75 92 75 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 93 75 93 75 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 94 75 93 75 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 97 76 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 97 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 75 86 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...68-GIBBS
UPPER AIR/GRAPHICAST...BILLINGS
000
FXUS64 KBRO 180634 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
134 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...THE USUAL NIGHTTIME SC DECKS ARE FORMING UP LOWERING
CEILINGS AROUND THE LOWER RGV. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THESE
LOW CLD DECKS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH AND WEST
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE SE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. AFTER
SUNRISE THE INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
ERODE OUT THE SC DECKS ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO
REPEAT ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
OF IFR CEILINGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TAF
FORECAST PACKAGE. MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
DUE TO THE FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MODERATE WINDS. FULL VFR
WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY WITH INCREASING SURFACE WINDS AND RISING
CEILINGS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...500 MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY WILL ERODE AWAY ON SATURDAY AS A 500 MB TROUGH
MOVES EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HEAT
INDICES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 105 TO 110 DEGREES BUT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND RETURN AGAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS TEMPORARILY
SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH AS THE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO TRANSITION BACK TO A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS AS THIS FIRST TROUGH EXITS TO THE
EAST A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE TROUGH TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA TO HAVE NO DIRECT AFFECT
ON THE VALLEYS SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE FORECAST TO REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LONG TERM. THERE IS SOME
SIGN OF CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE TRAILING END OF A COLD FRONT IN
CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THE PROJECTED
W-SW FLOW IN THE MID LAYERS DO NOT FAVOR ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS
TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY
CHANGES TO THIS AS WE APPROACH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR AVERAGE AS WE NEAR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE
ONLY 24 DAYS AWAY. DEEP SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 18 AND 22C TO KEEP TEMPERATURES RIGHT
NEAR WHERE THEY SHOULD BE THIS TIME OF YEARS. FORECAST IS TRENDING
WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER EUROPEAN MOS GUIDANCE WITH VARIATION AS
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND FLUCTUATES UP AND DOWN 2 TO 4 DEGREES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. TYPICAL BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT INTENSIFIES BETWEEN THE
COOLER GULF WATERS AND HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES. WINDS SPEEDS TO
FLUCTUATE AS WELL THIS PERIOD AS THE STRENGTH OF THE LEE SIDE
TROUGHING VARIES WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CURRENTLY BUOY020 REPORTS
SSE WINDS AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND
3.6 FEET. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS AS WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BY LATER THIS EVENING. OBSERVATION PLATFORMS AROUND THE
LAGUNA MADRE INDICATE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
EITHER THE LAGUNA MADRE OR GULF WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT A MODERATE WIND
REGIME WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A LOCAL WIND PRESSURE GRADIENT
AFFECTED BY THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE COOLER GULF WATERS AND
THE MUCH WARMER INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAIN AT A STEADY
STATE EACH DAY. AS TYPICAL CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR MARINERS
CAN EXPECT STRONGER WINDS DURING THE DAY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE
WITH THE GULF WATERS SEEING SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD ESPECIALLY IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WHERE THE
LAND AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION IS THE STRONGEST. A STEADY STATE
SEA OF 3 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 76 89 75 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 92 76 91 75 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 96 76 91 75 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 97 76 95 75 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 100 76 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 77 83 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...68
000
FXUS64 KBRO 172330 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
630 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TAF
FORECAST PACKAGE. MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
DUE TO THE FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MODERATE WINDS. FULL VFR
WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY WITH INCREASING SURFACE WINDS AND RISING
CEILINGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...500 MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY WILL ERODE AWAY ON SATURDAY AS A 500 MB TROUGH
MOVES EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HEAT
INDICES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 105 TO 110 DEGREES BUT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND RETURN AGAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS TEMPORARILY
SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH AS THE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO TRANSITION BACK TO A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS AS THIS FIRST TROUGH EXITS TO THE
EAST A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE TROUGH TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA TO HAVE NO DIRECT AFFECT
ON THE VALLEYS SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE FORECAST TO REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LONG TERM. THERE IS SOME
SIGN OF CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE TRAILING END OF A COLD FRONT IN
CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THE PROJECTED
W-SW FLOW IN THE MID LAYERS DO NOT FAVOR ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS
TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY
CHANGES TO THIS AS WE APPROACH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR AVERAGE AS WE NEAR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE
ONLY 24 DAYS AWAY. DEEP SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 18 AND 22C TO KEEP TEMPERATURES RIGHT
NEAR WHERE THEY SHOULD BE THIS TIME OF YEARS. FORECAST IS TRENDING
WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER EUROPEAN MOS GUIDANCE WITH VARIATION AS
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND FLUCTUATES UP AND DOWN 2 TO 4 DEGREES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. TYPICAL BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT INTENSIFIES BETWEEN THE
COOLER GULF WATERS AND HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES. WINDS SPEEDS TO
FLUCTUATE AS WELL THIS PERIOD AS THE STRENGTH OF THE LEE SIDE
TROUGHING VARIES WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CURRENTLY BUOY020 REPORTS
SSE WINDS AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND
3.6 FEET. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS AS WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BY LATER THIS EVENING. OBSERVATION PLATFORMS AROUND THE
LAGUNA MADRE INDICATE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
EITHER THE LAGUNA MADRE OR GULF WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT A MODERATE WIND
REGIME WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A LOCAL WIND PRESSURE GRADIENT
AFFECTED BY THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE COOLER GULF WATERS AND
THE MUCH WARMER INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAIN AT A STEADY
STATE EACH DAY. AS TYPICAL CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR MARINERS
CAN EXPECT STRONGER WINDS DURING THE DAY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE
WITH THE GULF WATERS SEEING SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD ESPECIALLY IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WHERE THE
LAND AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION IS THE STRONGEST. A STEADY STATE
SEA OF 3 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
| 
