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000
FXUS64 KBRO 041434 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
834 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...MADE A FEW CHANGES THIS MORNING TO INDICATE STRONGER
WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY AND LESS CLOUD COVER ALL LOCATIONS
THIS LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDING
INDICATED 40-50KNOTS LLJ BETWEEN 925-850 MB WITH THE BASE OF
SURFACE INVERSION AT 1400 FEET. AS THIS INVERSION WEAKENS THIS
AFTERNOON THE STRONGER WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO MIX THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE SURFACE. A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST TRENDS ON
THE BREEZY SIDE AT THIS TIME WITH SOME CONFIDENCE CONDITIONS
REACHING WINDY LEVELS IF FULL POTENTIAL MIXING DEVELOPS.

ALSO DROPPED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MARINE AREAS MORE ON
THIS BELOW.
&&

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.MARINE...WEB CAMS AND MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT
INDICATE DENSE FOG OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE OR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
VISIBILITIES OF 1-3 MILES ARE COMMON ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING WITH WIND SPEEDS TO STRONG TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
WILL DROP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AND REPLACE WITH
PATCHY FOG. STRONG FRONT STILL ON TAP FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY RAGGED DECK OF LOW CLDS
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THIS MORNING DUE TO THE STRONG AND
STEADY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. THE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE SOME LATER TODAY AS THE DAY TIME HEATING
INCREASES POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER ONCE AGAIN AS A
FAIRLY MOIST NOCTURNAL INVERSION REFORMS RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ALSO AS THE SURFACE WINDS
SLACKEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL
INCREASE POSSIBLY REDUCING VSBYS DOWN INTO THE 2 TO 4 MILE RANGE
LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE RGV AIRPORTS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE RESULTING IN STRONGER
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS SPRAWLING ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL USHER THROUGH A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAA
WILL PREVAIL TODAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE AFTERNOON HIGHS ON INTO THE 80S.
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY. NAM MUCAPE VALUES AROUND THE TIME OF THE FROPA INCREASE
INTO THE 1000 TO 1300 J/KG RANGE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
THEN DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY AS THE CAA INCREASES TOWARDS 12Z THURS.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF TRW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
PCPN SHOULD THEN CONVERT OVER QUICKLY TO RW/R DURING THE DAY THURS
AS THE CAA STABILIZES THE ATMS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE DEGREE OF CAA MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURS WITH THE MAV AND ECMWF COMING IN WARMER
THAN THE MET TEMP GUIDANCE. WILL GO WITH THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR
TEMPS THURS AS THE MET NUMBERS HAVE APPARENTLY BEEN DOING BETTER IN
HANDLING THE CAA EVENTS LATELY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING CAA AND THE STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL DRAMATICALLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA POSSIBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE
DAY THURS. ALSO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AFTER THE FRONT COULD REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
KENEDY...WILLACY AND CAMERON ON THURS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
POSTING THESE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT SHAPES
UP LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES AS BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...PERSISTENT
CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN...THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR
THE COAST. NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING A 500MB TROUGH...WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FIRST ITEM ON THE AGENDA FOR
THE MARINE AREAS TODAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL. WAA IS OCCURRING
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
WATERS. THIS WAA IS SPREADING OVER FAIRLY COOL BAY AND SURF WATER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSER MARINE FOG
NEAR PADRE ISLAND. WILL ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
BAY WATERS AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO 20 NM THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

EXPECT THE PGF TO STRENGTHEN DRASTICALLY JUST AFTER THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER TX MARINE WATERS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z THURS.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE LEVELS PRETTY QUICKLY ON THURS. ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE UPDGRADING THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE LOWER
TX MARINE AREAS FROM 06Z THURS THROUGH 00Z FRI.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. MARINE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  44  39 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  42  37 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  42  37 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  40  36 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  41  35 /  10  60  40  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  45  46  42 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/54




000
FXUS64 KBRO 041434 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
834 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...MADE A FEW CHANGES THIS MORNING TO INDICATE STRONGER
WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY AND LESS CLOUD COVER ALL LOCATIONS
THIS LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDING
INDICATED 40-50KNOTS LLJ BETWEEN 925-850 MB WITH THE BASE OF
SURFACE INVERSION AT 1400 FEET. AS THIS INVERSION WEAKENS THIS
AFTERNOON THE STRONGER WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO MIX THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE SURFACE. A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST TRENDS ON
THE BREEZY SIDE AT THIS TIME WITH SOME CONFIDENCE CONDITIONS
REACHING WINDY LEVELS IF FULL POTENTIAL MIXING DEVELOPS.

ALSO DROPPED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MARINE AREAS MORE ON
THIS BELOW.
&&

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.MARINE...WEB CAMS AND MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT
INDICATE DENSE FOG OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE OR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
VISIBILITIES OF 1-3 MILES ARE COMMON ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING WITH WIND SPEEDS TO STRONG TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
WILL DROP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AND REPLACE WITH
PATCHY FOG. STRONG FRONT STILL ON TAP FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY RAGGED DECK OF LOW CLDS
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THIS MORNING DUE TO THE STRONG AND
STEADY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. THE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE SOME LATER TODAY AS THE DAY TIME HEATING
INCREASES POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER ONCE AGAIN AS A
FAIRLY MOIST NOCTURNAL INVERSION REFORMS RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ALSO AS THE SURFACE WINDS
SLACKEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL
INCREASE POSSIBLY REDUCING VSBYS DOWN INTO THE 2 TO 4 MILE RANGE
LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE RGV AIRPORTS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE RESULTING IN STRONGER
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS SPRAWLING ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL USHER THROUGH A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAA
WILL PREVAIL TODAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE AFTERNOON HIGHS ON INTO THE 80S.
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY. NAM MUCAPE VALUES AROUND THE TIME OF THE FROPA INCREASE
INTO THE 1000 TO 1300 J/KG RANGE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
THEN DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY AS THE CAA INCREASES TOWARDS 12Z THURS.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF TRW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
PCPN SHOULD THEN CONVERT OVER QUICKLY TO RW/R DURING THE DAY THURS
AS THE CAA STABILIZES THE ATMS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE DEGREE OF CAA MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURS WITH THE MAV AND ECMWF COMING IN WARMER
THAN THE MET TEMP GUIDANCE. WILL GO WITH THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR
TEMPS THURS AS THE MET NUMBERS HAVE APPARENTLY BEEN DOING BETTER IN
HANDLING THE CAA EVENTS LATELY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING CAA AND THE STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL DRAMATICALLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA POSSIBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE
DAY THURS. ALSO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AFTER THE FRONT COULD REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
KENEDY...WILLACY AND CAMERON ON THURS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
POSTING THESE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT SHAPES
UP LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES AS BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...PERSISTENT
CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN...THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR
THE COAST. NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING A 500MB TROUGH...WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FIRST ITEM ON THE AGENDA FOR
THE MARINE AREAS TODAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL. WAA IS OCCURRING
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
WATERS. THIS WAA IS SPREADING OVER FAIRLY COOL BAY AND SURF WATER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSER MARINE FOG
NEAR PADRE ISLAND. WILL ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
BAY WATERS AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO 20 NM THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

EXPECT THE PGF TO STRENGTHEN DRASTICALLY JUST AFTER THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER TX MARINE WATERS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z THURS.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE LEVELS PRETTY QUICKLY ON THURS. ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE UPDGRADING THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE LOWER
TX MARINE AREAS FROM 06Z THURS THROUGH 00Z FRI.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. MARINE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  44  39 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  42  37 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  42  37 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  40  36 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  41  35 /  10  60  40  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  45  46  42 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/54





000
FXUS64 KBRO 041153 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
553 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY RAGGED DECK OF LOW CLDS
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THIS MORNING DUE TO THE STRONG AND
STEADY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. THE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE SOME LATER TODAY AS THE DAY TIME HEATING
INCREASES POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER ONCE AGAIN AS A
FAIRLY MOIST NOCTURNAL INVERSION REFORMS RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ALSO AS THE SURFACE WINDS
SLACKEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL
INCREASE POSSIBLY REDUCING VSBYS DOWN INTO THE 2 TO 4 MILE RANGE
LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE RGV AIRPORTS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE RESULTING IN STRONGER
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS SPRAWLING ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL USHER THROUGH A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAA
WILL PREVAIL TODAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE AFTERNOON HIGHS ON INTO THE 80S.
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY. NAM MUCAPE VALUES AROUND THE TIME OF THE FROPA INCREASE
INTO THE 1000 TO 1300 J/KG RANGE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
THEN DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY AS THE CAA INCREASES TOWARDS 12Z THURS.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF TRW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
PCPN SHOULD THEN CONVERT OVER QUICKLY TO RW/R DURING THE DAY THURS
AS THE CAA STABILIZES THE ATMS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE DEGREE OF CAA MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURS WITH THE MAV AND ECMWF COMING IN WARMER
THAN THE MET TEMP GUIDANCE. WILL GO WITH THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR
TEMPS THURS AS THE MET NUMBERS HAVE APPARENTLY BEEN DOING BETTER IN
HANDLING THE CAA EVENTS LATELY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING CAA AND THE STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL DRAMATICALLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA POSSIBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE
DAY THURS. ALSO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AFTER THE FRONT COULD REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
KENEDY...WILLACY AND CAMERON ON THURS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
POSTING THESE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT SHAPES
UP LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES AS BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...PERSISTENT
CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN...THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR
THE COAST. NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING A 500MB TROUGH...WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FIRST ITEM ON THE AGENDA FOR
THE MARINE AREAS TODAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL. WAA IS OCCURRING
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
WATERS. THIS WAA IS SPREADING OVER FAIRLY COOL BAY AND SURF WATER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSER MARINE FOG
NEAR PADRE ISLAND. WILL ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
BAY WATERS AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO 20 NM THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

EXPECT THE PGF TO STRENGTHEN DRASTICALLY JUST AFTER THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER TX MARINE WATERS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z THURS.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE LEVELS PRETTY QUICKLY ON THURS. ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE UPDGRADING THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE LOWER
TX MARINE AREAS FROM 06Z THURS THROUGH 00Z FRI.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. MARINE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  44  39 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  42  37 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  42  37 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  40  36 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  41  35 /  10  60  40  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  45  46  42 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-
     155.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...67





000
FXUS64 KBRO 041153 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
553 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY RAGGED DECK OF LOW CLDS
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THIS MORNING DUE TO THE STRONG AND
STEADY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. THE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE SOME LATER TODAY AS THE DAY TIME HEATING
INCREASES POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER ONCE AGAIN AS A
FAIRLY MOIST NOCTURNAL INVERSION REFORMS RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ALSO AS THE SURFACE WINDS
SLACKEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL
INCREASE POSSIBLY REDUCING VSBYS DOWN INTO THE 2 TO 4 MILE RANGE
LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE RGV AIRPORTS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE RESULTING IN STRONGER
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS SPRAWLING ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL USHER THROUGH A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAA
WILL PREVAIL TODAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE AFTERNOON HIGHS ON INTO THE 80S.
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY. NAM MUCAPE VALUES AROUND THE TIME OF THE FROPA INCREASE
INTO THE 1000 TO 1300 J/KG RANGE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
THEN DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY AS THE CAA INCREASES TOWARDS 12Z THURS.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF TRW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
PCPN SHOULD THEN CONVERT OVER QUICKLY TO RW/R DURING THE DAY THURS
AS THE CAA STABILIZES THE ATMS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE DEGREE OF CAA MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURS WITH THE MAV AND ECMWF COMING IN WARMER
THAN THE MET TEMP GUIDANCE. WILL GO WITH THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR
TEMPS THURS AS THE MET NUMBERS HAVE APPARENTLY BEEN DOING BETTER IN
HANDLING THE CAA EVENTS LATELY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING CAA AND THE STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL DRAMATICALLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA POSSIBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE
DAY THURS. ALSO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AFTER THE FRONT COULD REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
KENEDY...WILLACY AND CAMERON ON THURS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
POSTING THESE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT SHAPES
UP LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES AS BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...PERSISTENT
CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN...THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR
THE COAST. NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING A 500MB TROUGH...WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FIRST ITEM ON THE AGENDA FOR
THE MARINE AREAS TODAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL. WAA IS OCCURRING
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
WATERS. THIS WAA IS SPREADING OVER FAIRLY COOL BAY AND SURF WATER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSER MARINE FOG
NEAR PADRE ISLAND. WILL ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
BAY WATERS AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO 20 NM THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

EXPECT THE PGF TO STRENGTHEN DRASTICALLY JUST AFTER THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER TX MARINE WATERS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z THURS.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE LEVELS PRETTY QUICKLY ON THURS. ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE UPDGRADING THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE LOWER
TX MARINE AREAS FROM 06Z THURS THROUGH 00Z FRI.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. MARINE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  44  39 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  42  37 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  42  37 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  40  36 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  41  35 /  10  60  40  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  45  46  42 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-
     155.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...67




000
FXUS64 KBRO 041153 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
553 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY RAGGED DECK OF LOW CLDS
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THIS MORNING DUE TO THE STRONG AND
STEADY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. THE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE SOME LATER TODAY AS THE DAY TIME HEATING
INCREASES POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER ONCE AGAIN AS A
FAIRLY MOIST NOCTURNAL INVERSION REFORMS RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ALSO AS THE SURFACE WINDS
SLACKEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL
INCREASE POSSIBLY REDUCING VSBYS DOWN INTO THE 2 TO 4 MILE RANGE
LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE RGV AIRPORTS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE RESULTING IN STRONGER
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS SPRAWLING ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL USHER THROUGH A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAA
WILL PREVAIL TODAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE AFTERNOON HIGHS ON INTO THE 80S.
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY. NAM MUCAPE VALUES AROUND THE TIME OF THE FROPA INCREASE
INTO THE 1000 TO 1300 J/KG RANGE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
THEN DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY AS THE CAA INCREASES TOWARDS 12Z THURS.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF TRW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
PCPN SHOULD THEN CONVERT OVER QUICKLY TO RW/R DURING THE DAY THURS
AS THE CAA STABILIZES THE ATMS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE DEGREE OF CAA MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURS WITH THE MAV AND ECMWF COMING IN WARMER
THAN THE MET TEMP GUIDANCE. WILL GO WITH THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR
TEMPS THURS AS THE MET NUMBERS HAVE APPARENTLY BEEN DOING BETTER IN
HANDLING THE CAA EVENTS LATELY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING CAA AND THE STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL DRAMATICALLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA POSSIBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE
DAY THURS. ALSO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AFTER THE FRONT COULD REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
KENEDY...WILLACY AND CAMERON ON THURS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
POSTING THESE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT SHAPES
UP LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES AS BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...PERSISTENT
CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN...THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR
THE COAST. NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING A 500MB TROUGH...WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FIRST ITEM ON THE AGENDA FOR
THE MARINE AREAS TODAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL. WAA IS OCCURRING
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
WATERS. THIS WAA IS SPREADING OVER FAIRLY COOL BAY AND SURF WATER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSER MARINE FOG
NEAR PADRE ISLAND. WILL ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
BAY WATERS AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO 20 NM THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

EXPECT THE PGF TO STRENGTHEN DRASTICALLY JUST AFTER THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER TX MARINE WATERS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z THURS.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE LEVELS PRETTY QUICKLY ON THURS. ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE UPDGRADING THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE LOWER
TX MARINE AREAS FROM 06Z THURS THROUGH 00Z FRI.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. MARINE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  44  39 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  42  37 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  42  37 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  40  36 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  41  35 /  10  60  40  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  45  46  42 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-
     155.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...67




000
FXUS64 KBRO 041153 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
553 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY RAGGED DECK OF LOW CLDS
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THIS MORNING DUE TO THE STRONG AND
STEADY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. THE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE SOME LATER TODAY AS THE DAY TIME HEATING
INCREASES POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER ONCE AGAIN AS A
FAIRLY MOIST NOCTURNAL INVERSION REFORMS RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ALSO AS THE SURFACE WINDS
SLACKEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL
INCREASE POSSIBLY REDUCING VSBYS DOWN INTO THE 2 TO 4 MILE RANGE
LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE RGV AIRPORTS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE RESULTING IN STRONGER
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS SPRAWLING ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL USHER THROUGH A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAA
WILL PREVAIL TODAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE AFTERNOON HIGHS ON INTO THE 80S.
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY. NAM MUCAPE VALUES AROUND THE TIME OF THE FROPA INCREASE
INTO THE 1000 TO 1300 J/KG RANGE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
THEN DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY AS THE CAA INCREASES TOWARDS 12Z THURS.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF TRW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
PCPN SHOULD THEN CONVERT OVER QUICKLY TO RW/R DURING THE DAY THURS
AS THE CAA STABILIZES THE ATMS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE DEGREE OF CAA MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURS WITH THE MAV AND ECMWF COMING IN WARMER
THAN THE MET TEMP GUIDANCE. WILL GO WITH THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR
TEMPS THURS AS THE MET NUMBERS HAVE APPARENTLY BEEN DOING BETTER IN
HANDLING THE CAA EVENTS LATELY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING CAA AND THE STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL DRAMATICALLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA POSSIBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE
DAY THURS. ALSO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AFTER THE FRONT COULD REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
KENEDY...WILLACY AND CAMERON ON THURS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
POSTING THESE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT SHAPES
UP LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES AS BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...PERSISTENT
CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN...THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR
THE COAST. NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING A 500MB TROUGH...WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FIRST ITEM ON THE AGENDA FOR
THE MARINE AREAS TODAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL. WAA IS OCCURRING
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
WATERS. THIS WAA IS SPREADING OVER FAIRLY COOL BAY AND SURF WATER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSER MARINE FOG
NEAR PADRE ISLAND. WILL ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
BAY WATERS AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO 20 NM THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

EXPECT THE PGF TO STRENGTHEN DRASTICALLY JUST AFTER THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER TX MARINE WATERS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z THURS.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE LEVELS PRETTY QUICKLY ON THURS. ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE UPDGRADING THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE LOWER
TX MARINE AREAS FROM 06Z THURS THROUGH 00Z FRI.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. MARINE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  44  39 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  42  37 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  42  37 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  40  36 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  41  35 /  10  60  40  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  45  46  42 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-
     155.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...67





000
FXUS64 KBRO 041103 CCA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
433 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS SPRAWLING ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL USHER THROUGH A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAA
WILL PREVAIL TODAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE AFTERNOON HIGHS ON INTO THE 80S.
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY. NAM MUCAPE VALUES AROUND THE TIME OF THE FROPA INCREASE
INTO THE 1000 TO 1300 J/KG RANGE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
THEN DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY AS THE CAA INCREASES TOWARDS 12Z THURS.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF TRW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
PCPN SHOULD THEN CONVERT OVER QUICKLY TO RW/R DURING THE DAY THURS
AS THE CAA STABILIZES THE ATMS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE DEGREE OF CAA MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURS WITH THE MAV AND ECMWF COMING IN WARMER
THAN THE MET TEMP GUIDANCE. WILL GO WITH THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR
TEMPS THURS AS THE MET NUMBERS HAVE APPARENTLY BEEN DOING BETTER IN
HANDLING THE CAA EVENTS LATELY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING CAA AND THE STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL DRAMATICALLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA POSSIBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE
DAY THURS. ALSO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AFTER THE FRONT COULD REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
KENEDY...WILLACY AND CAMERON ON THURS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
POSTING THESE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT SHAPES
UP LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES AS BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...PERSISTENT
CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN...THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR
THE COAST. NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING A 500MB TROUGH...WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FIRST ITEM ON THE AGENDA FOR
THE MARINE AREAS TODAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL. WAA IS OCCURRING
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
WATERS. THIS WAA IS SPREADING OVER FAIRLY COOL BAY AND SURF WATER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSER MARINE FOG
NEAR PADRE ISLAND. WILL ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
BAY WATERS AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO 20 NM THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

EXPECT THE PGF TO STRENGTHEN DRASTICALLY JUST AFTER THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER TX MARINE WATERS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z THURS.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE LEVELS PRETTY QUICKLY ON THURS. ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE UPDGRADING THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE LOWER
TX MARINE AREAS FROM 06Z THURS THROUGH 00Z FRI.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. MARINE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  44  39 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  42  37 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  42  37 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  40  36 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  41  35 /  10  60  40  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  45  46  42 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-
     155.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60/63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 041103 CCA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
433 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS SPRAWLING ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL USHER THROUGH A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAA
WILL PREVAIL TODAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE AFTERNOON HIGHS ON INTO THE 80S.
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY. NAM MUCAPE VALUES AROUND THE TIME OF THE FROPA INCREASE
INTO THE 1000 TO 1300 J/KG RANGE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
THEN DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY AS THE CAA INCREASES TOWARDS 12Z THURS.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF TRW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
PCPN SHOULD THEN CONVERT OVER QUICKLY TO RW/R DURING THE DAY THURS
AS THE CAA STABILIZES THE ATMS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE DEGREE OF CAA MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURS WITH THE MAV AND ECMWF COMING IN WARMER
THAN THE MET TEMP GUIDANCE. WILL GO WITH THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR
TEMPS THURS AS THE MET NUMBERS HAVE APPARENTLY BEEN DOING BETTER IN
HANDLING THE CAA EVENTS LATELY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING CAA AND THE STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL DRAMATICALLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA POSSIBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE
DAY THURS. ALSO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AFTER THE FRONT COULD REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
KENEDY...WILLACY AND CAMERON ON THURS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
POSTING THESE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT SHAPES
UP LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES AS BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...PERSISTENT
CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN...THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR
THE COAST. NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING A 500MB TROUGH...WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FIRST ITEM ON THE AGENDA FOR
THE MARINE AREAS TODAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL. WAA IS OCCURRING
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
WATERS. THIS WAA IS SPREADING OVER FAIRLY COOL BAY AND SURF WATER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSER MARINE FOG
NEAR PADRE ISLAND. WILL ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
BAY WATERS AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO 20 NM THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

EXPECT THE PGF TO STRENGTHEN DRASTICALLY JUST AFTER THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER TX MARINE WATERS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z THURS.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE LEVELS PRETTY QUICKLY ON THURS. ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE UPDGRADING THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE LOWER
TX MARINE AREAS FROM 06Z THURS THROUGH 00Z FRI.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. MARINE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  44  39 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  42  37 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  42  37 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  40  36 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  41  35 /  10  60  40  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  45  46  42 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-
     155.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60/63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 041103 CCA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
433 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS SPRAWLING ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL USHER THROUGH A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAA
WILL PREVAIL TODAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE AFTERNOON HIGHS ON INTO THE 80S.
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY. NAM MUCAPE VALUES AROUND THE TIME OF THE FROPA INCREASE
INTO THE 1000 TO 1300 J/KG RANGE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
THEN DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY AS THE CAA INCREASES TOWARDS 12Z THURS.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF TRW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
PCPN SHOULD THEN CONVERT OVER QUICKLY TO RW/R DURING THE DAY THURS
AS THE CAA STABILIZES THE ATMS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE DEGREE OF CAA MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURS WITH THE MAV AND ECMWF COMING IN WARMER
THAN THE MET TEMP GUIDANCE. WILL GO WITH THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR
TEMPS THURS AS THE MET NUMBERS HAVE APPARENTLY BEEN DOING BETTER IN
HANDLING THE CAA EVENTS LATELY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING CAA AND THE STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL DRAMATICALLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA POSSIBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE
DAY THURS. ALSO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AFTER THE FRONT COULD REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
KENEDY...WILLACY AND CAMERON ON THURS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
POSTING THESE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT SHAPES
UP LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES AS BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...PERSISTENT
CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN...THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR
THE COAST. NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING A 500MB TROUGH...WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FIRST ITEM ON THE AGENDA FOR
THE MARINE AREAS TODAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL. WAA IS OCCURRING
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
WATERS. THIS WAA IS SPREADING OVER FAIRLY COOL BAY AND SURF WATER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSER MARINE FOG
NEAR PADRE ISLAND. WILL ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
BAY WATERS AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO 20 NM THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

EXPECT THE PGF TO STRENGTHEN DRASTICALLY JUST AFTER THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER TX MARINE WATERS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z THURS.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE LEVELS PRETTY QUICKLY ON THURS. ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE UPDGRADING THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE LOWER
TX MARINE AREAS FROM 06Z THURS THROUGH 00Z FRI.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. MARINE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  44  39 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  42  37 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  42  37 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  40  36 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  41  35 /  10  60  40  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  45  46  42 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-
     155.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60/63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 041103 CCA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
433 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS SPRAWLING ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL USHER THROUGH A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAA
WILL PREVAIL TODAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE AFTERNOON HIGHS ON INTO THE 80S.
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY. NAM MUCAPE VALUES AROUND THE TIME OF THE FROPA INCREASE
INTO THE 1000 TO 1300 J/KG RANGE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
THEN DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY AS THE CAA INCREASES TOWARDS 12Z THURS.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF TRW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
PCPN SHOULD THEN CONVERT OVER QUICKLY TO RW/R DURING THE DAY THURS
AS THE CAA STABILIZES THE ATMS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE DEGREE OF CAA MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURS WITH THE MAV AND ECMWF COMING IN WARMER
THAN THE MET TEMP GUIDANCE. WILL GO WITH THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR
TEMPS THURS AS THE MET NUMBERS HAVE APPARENTLY BEEN DOING BETTER IN
HANDLING THE CAA EVENTS LATELY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING CAA AND THE STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL DRAMATICALLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA POSSIBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE
DAY THURS. ALSO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AFTER THE FRONT COULD REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
KENEDY...WILLACY AND CAMERON ON THURS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
POSTING THESE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT SHAPES
UP LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES AS BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...PERSISTENT
CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN...THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR
THE COAST. NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING A 500MB TROUGH...WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FIRST ITEM ON THE AGENDA FOR
THE MARINE AREAS TODAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL. WAA IS OCCURRING
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
WATERS. THIS WAA IS SPREADING OVER FAIRLY COOL BAY AND SURF WATER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSER MARINE FOG
NEAR PADRE ISLAND. WILL ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
BAY WATERS AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO 20 NM THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

EXPECT THE PGF TO STRENGTHEN DRASTICALLY JUST AFTER THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER TX MARINE WATERS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z THURS.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE LEVELS PRETTY QUICKLY ON THURS. ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE UPDGRADING THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE LOWER
TX MARINE AREAS FROM 06Z THURS THROUGH 00Z FRI.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. MARINE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  44  39 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  42  37 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  42  37 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  40  36 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  41  35 /  10  60  40  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  45  46  42 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-
     155.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60/63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 041033
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
433 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS SPRAWLING ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL USHER THROUGH A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAA
WILL PREVAIL TODAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE AFTERNOON HIGHS ON INTO THE 80S.
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY. NAM MUCAPE VALUES AROUND THE TIME OF THE FROPA INCREASE
INTO THE 1000 TO 1300 J/KG RANGE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
THEN DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY AS THE CAA INCREASES TOWARDS 12Z THURS.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF TRW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
PCPN SHOULD THEN CONVERT OVER QUICKLY TO RW/R DURING THE DAY THURS
AS THE CAA STABILIZES THE ATMS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE DEGREE OF CAA MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURS WITH THE MAV AND ECMWF COMING IN WARMER
THAN THE MET TEMP GUIDANCE. WILL GO WITH THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR
TEMPS THURS AS THE MET NUMBERS HAVE APPARENTLY BEEN DOING BETTER IN
HANDLING THE CAA EVENTS LATELY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING CAA AND THE STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL DRAMATICALLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA POSSIBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE
DAY THURS. ALSO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AFTER THE FRONT COULD REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
KENEDY...WILLACY AND CAMERON ON THURS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
POSTING THESE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT SHAPES
UP LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...ARCTIC SOURCE
AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
30S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES AS
BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...PERSISTENT CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS
THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST. NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING A 500MB TROUGH...WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FIRST ITEM ON THE AGENDA FOR
THE MARINE AREAS TODAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL. WAA IS OCCURRING
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
WATERS. THIS WAA IS SPREADING OVER FAIRLY COOL BAY AND SURF WATER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSER MARINE FOG
NEAR PADRE ISLAND. WILL ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
BAY WATERS AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO 20 NM THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

EXPECT THE PGF TO STRENGTHEN DRASTICALLY JUST AFTER THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER TX MARINE WATERS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z THURS.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE LEVELS PRETTY QUICKLY ON THURS. ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE UPDGRADING THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE LOWER
TX MARINE AREAS FROM 06Z THURS THROUGH 00Z FRI.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. MARINE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  44  39 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  42  37 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  42  37 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  40  36 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  41  35 /  10  60  40  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  45  46  42 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-
     155.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60/63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 041033
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
433 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS SPRAWLING ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL USHER THROUGH A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAA
WILL PREVAIL TODAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE AFTERNOON HIGHS ON INTO THE 80S.
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY. NAM MUCAPE VALUES AROUND THE TIME OF THE FROPA INCREASE
INTO THE 1000 TO 1300 J/KG RANGE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
THEN DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY AS THE CAA INCREASES TOWARDS 12Z THURS.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF TRW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
PCPN SHOULD THEN CONVERT OVER QUICKLY TO RW/R DURING THE DAY THURS
AS THE CAA STABILIZES THE ATMS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE DEGREE OF CAA MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURS WITH THE MAV AND ECMWF COMING IN WARMER
THAN THE MET TEMP GUIDANCE. WILL GO WITH THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR
TEMPS THURS AS THE MET NUMBERS HAVE APPARENTLY BEEN DOING BETTER IN
HANDLING THE CAA EVENTS LATELY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING CAA AND THE STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL DRAMATICALLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA POSSIBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE
DAY THURS. ALSO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AFTER THE FRONT COULD REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
KENEDY...WILLACY AND CAMERON ON THURS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
POSTING THESE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT SHAPES
UP LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...ARCTIC SOURCE
AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
30S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES AS
BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...PERSISTENT CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS
THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST. NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING A 500MB TROUGH...WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FIRST ITEM ON THE AGENDA FOR
THE MARINE AREAS TODAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL. WAA IS OCCURRING
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
WATERS. THIS WAA IS SPREADING OVER FAIRLY COOL BAY AND SURF WATER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSER MARINE FOG
NEAR PADRE ISLAND. WILL ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
BAY WATERS AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO 20 NM THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

EXPECT THE PGF TO STRENGTHEN DRASTICALLY JUST AFTER THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER TX MARINE WATERS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z THURS.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE LEVELS PRETTY QUICKLY ON THURS. ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE UPDGRADING THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE LOWER
TX MARINE AREAS FROM 06Z THURS THROUGH 00Z FRI.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. MARINE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  44  39 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  42  37 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  42  37 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  40  36 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  41  35 /  10  60  40  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  45  46  42 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-
     155.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60/63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 040619 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1219 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED OVER THE AERODROMES...EVEN TO THE
POINT OF LIFR AT BRO. POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TOMORROW AFTER SUNRISE
DUE TO BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY RISING CEILINGS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH TOMORROW NIGHT...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO DIMINISH
AND LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP. THE NEXT ITERATION OF TAFS WILL LIKELY
HAVE THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...A STRATUS DECK AROUND
1K FEET WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET WITH MODERATE WINDS IN PLACE. THE
TAFS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC VISIBILITIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE MODERATE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT
MORE DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. ON WEDNESDAY...FULL VFR WILL RETURN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAJOR WESTERN TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING WESTWARD FROM THE COAST. ALREADY AS OF 1 PM THE TEMP IN
BROWNSVILLE HAS EXCEEDED 80 DEGREES. THE WARM FRONT IS MAKING SLOW
WESTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 5 PM.
TEMPERATURES MIGHT CONTINUE TO WARM AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING KICKS IN.

TONIGHT...SURFACE INVERSION REESTABLISHES ITSELF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET WITH A BRISK LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KNOTS  DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE LOWERING PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRATUS TO QUICKLY
REFORM AND WITH THE CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING SLOWED
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY...THE VENGEANCE OF THE RGV WIND MACHINE AND WARMING WILL BE
IN FULL SWING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE SIERRAS. SURFACE TO 850MB WINDS TO VEER S-
SW-W THIS IS GOOD SIGNAL FOR DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS NICELY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 90 DEGREES. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT NUMBERS. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG, FOG NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE, TO QUICKLY BURN OFF AND LIFT WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON SKY. SURFACE WINDS AS MENTION BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY AS TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM COAST TO
SIERRA STRENGTHENS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF WARMING TREND TO QUICKLY GO INTO
REVERSE AS THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG NORTHERN JET MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
ARCTIC HIGH SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY INCREASING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
COLD AIR. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
LOWER VALLEY BY 4 AM. RAPID FORCING OF THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
OVER THE WARM MOIST LAYER TO ALLOW FOR QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY TIGHT SO FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE FELT BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES. MODELS GUIDANCE SHOWS A DROP OF 30+ DEGREES
IN 9 HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM AT BROWNSVILLE. THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHING A 3 HOUR TIME PERIOD WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH BROWNSVILLE AT 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. THIS
SCENARIO IS HIGHLY PROBABLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS
ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...HAVING FAILED TO COMPLETELY PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MID LEVEL FEATURE. HENCE...AS COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...PROLONGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ENSURING AN OVER RUNNING PATTERN THAT LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL FILL OVER THE WEEKEND...A
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN OVER NW MEXICO...PREVENTING THE MID LEVEL
FLOW FROM VEERING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE HOPES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE PUT ON
HOLD FOR A TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AN ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST HAVE A CHANCE OF TOUCHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUSTAINED CAA AND
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
TO KEEP THE SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP GOING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER WHICH A RECOVERY OF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GET BACK TO THE SAME READINGS
AS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGH FOR
THE DAY MAY OCCUR AT DAWN HOWEVER. ALSO BACKED OFF ON HIGHER POPS
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE. LIGHT RAIN STILL IN THE CARDS BUT QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL GENERATE THICK LOW CLOUDS AT THE LEAST...HOWEVER.

THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL
SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND PERSISTENT POPS LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 500 MB
LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST OVER TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL
HOLD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND...
TENDING TO HOLD OFF ANY SERIOUS WARMING THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE
PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRIDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES THEN SHOW UP AS THE TWO MODELS
WRESTLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGHING MOVING
ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THE DIFFERENCES DON`T SEEM TO TRANSLATE INTO
ANY BIG ISSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE ADVERTISED FORECAST...BUT
COULD HAVE MORE RELEVANCE DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS FINALLY RETURN. THE ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO LOWER
INLAND. THE COOLER WATER SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND POTENTIAL BUT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO FINISH ANY BUSINESS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A MAJOR COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCHES ARE POSTED AND WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY. THE
SHARP FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM THEN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE THE SURGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY SWITCH TO
GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
ARCTIC ORIGINS. GALES WILL ALSO OCCUR ON THE LAGUNA MADRE...BUT
WINDS MAY WEAKEN A BIT EARLIER THERE...MID THURSDAY...THAN ON THE
OPEN GULF. SEAS ON THE GULF WILL BUILD TO 12 FEET DURING THE DAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR MASS SLOWLY SPREADS OVER THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM MARINE FCST WILL CONSIST OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF MAY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE SEVEN FEET INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  42  40 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  40  38 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  39  38 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  38  37 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  40  36 /  10  60  40  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  46  46  43 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR GMZ130-
     132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 040619 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1219 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED OVER THE AERODROMES...EVEN TO THE
POINT OF LIFR AT BRO. POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TOMORROW AFTER SUNRISE
DUE TO BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY RISING CEILINGS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH TOMORROW NIGHT...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO DIMINISH
AND LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP. THE NEXT ITERATION OF TAFS WILL LIKELY
HAVE THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...A STRATUS DECK AROUND
1K FEET WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET WITH MODERATE WINDS IN PLACE. THE
TAFS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC VISIBILITIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE MODERATE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT
MORE DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. ON WEDNESDAY...FULL VFR WILL RETURN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAJOR WESTERN TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING WESTWARD FROM THE COAST. ALREADY AS OF 1 PM THE TEMP IN
BROWNSVILLE HAS EXCEEDED 80 DEGREES. THE WARM FRONT IS MAKING SLOW
WESTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 5 PM.
TEMPERATURES MIGHT CONTINUE TO WARM AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING KICKS IN.

TONIGHT...SURFACE INVERSION REESTABLISHES ITSELF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET WITH A BRISK LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KNOTS  DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE LOWERING PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRATUS TO QUICKLY
REFORM AND WITH THE CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING SLOWED
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY...THE VENGEANCE OF THE RGV WIND MACHINE AND WARMING WILL BE
IN FULL SWING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE SIERRAS. SURFACE TO 850MB WINDS TO VEER S-
SW-W THIS IS GOOD SIGNAL FOR DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS NICELY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 90 DEGREES. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT NUMBERS. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG, FOG NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE, TO QUICKLY BURN OFF AND LIFT WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON SKY. SURFACE WINDS AS MENTION BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY AS TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM COAST TO
SIERRA STRENGTHENS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF WARMING TREND TO QUICKLY GO INTO
REVERSE AS THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG NORTHERN JET MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
ARCTIC HIGH SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY INCREASING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
COLD AIR. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
LOWER VALLEY BY 4 AM. RAPID FORCING OF THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
OVER THE WARM MOIST LAYER TO ALLOW FOR QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY TIGHT SO FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE FELT BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES. MODELS GUIDANCE SHOWS A DROP OF 30+ DEGREES
IN 9 HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM AT BROWNSVILLE. THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHING A 3 HOUR TIME PERIOD WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH BROWNSVILLE AT 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. THIS
SCENARIO IS HIGHLY PROBABLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS
ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...HAVING FAILED TO COMPLETELY PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MID LEVEL FEATURE. HENCE...AS COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...PROLONGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ENSURING AN OVER RUNNING PATTERN THAT LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL FILL OVER THE WEEKEND...A
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN OVER NW MEXICO...PREVENTING THE MID LEVEL
FLOW FROM VEERING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE HOPES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE PUT ON
HOLD FOR A TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AN ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST HAVE A CHANCE OF TOUCHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUSTAINED CAA AND
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
TO KEEP THE SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP GOING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER WHICH A RECOVERY OF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GET BACK TO THE SAME READINGS
AS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGH FOR
THE DAY MAY OCCUR AT DAWN HOWEVER. ALSO BACKED OFF ON HIGHER POPS
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE. LIGHT RAIN STILL IN THE CARDS BUT QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL GENERATE THICK LOW CLOUDS AT THE LEAST...HOWEVER.

THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL
SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND PERSISTENT POPS LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 500 MB
LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST OVER TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL
HOLD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND...
TENDING TO HOLD OFF ANY SERIOUS WARMING THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE
PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRIDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES THEN SHOW UP AS THE TWO MODELS
WRESTLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGHING MOVING
ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THE DIFFERENCES DON`T SEEM TO TRANSLATE INTO
ANY BIG ISSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE ADVERTISED FORECAST...BUT
COULD HAVE MORE RELEVANCE DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS FINALLY RETURN. THE ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO LOWER
INLAND. THE COOLER WATER SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND POTENTIAL BUT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO FINISH ANY BUSINESS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A MAJOR COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCHES ARE POSTED AND WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY. THE
SHARP FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM THEN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE THE SURGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY SWITCH TO
GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
ARCTIC ORIGINS. GALES WILL ALSO OCCUR ON THE LAGUNA MADRE...BUT
WINDS MAY WEAKEN A BIT EARLIER THERE...MID THURSDAY...THAN ON THE
OPEN GULF. SEAS ON THE GULF WILL BUILD TO 12 FEET DURING THE DAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR MASS SLOWLY SPREADS OVER THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM MARINE FCST WILL CONSIST OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF MAY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE SEVEN FEET INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  42  40 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  40  38 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  39  38 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  38  37 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  40  36 /  10  60  40  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  46  46  43 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR GMZ130-
     132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 040619 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1219 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED OVER THE AERODROMES...EVEN TO THE
POINT OF LIFR AT BRO. POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TOMORROW AFTER SUNRISE
DUE TO BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY RISING CEILINGS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH TOMORROW NIGHT...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO DIMINISH
AND LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP. THE NEXT ITERATION OF TAFS WILL LIKELY
HAVE THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...A STRATUS DECK AROUND
1K FEET WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET WITH MODERATE WINDS IN PLACE. THE
TAFS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC VISIBILITIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE MODERATE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT
MORE DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. ON WEDNESDAY...FULL VFR WILL RETURN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAJOR WESTERN TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING WESTWARD FROM THE COAST. ALREADY AS OF 1 PM THE TEMP IN
BROWNSVILLE HAS EXCEEDED 80 DEGREES. THE WARM FRONT IS MAKING SLOW
WESTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 5 PM.
TEMPERATURES MIGHT CONTINUE TO WARM AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING KICKS IN.

TONIGHT...SURFACE INVERSION REESTABLISHES ITSELF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET WITH A BRISK LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KNOTS  DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE LOWERING PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRATUS TO QUICKLY
REFORM AND WITH THE CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING SLOWED
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY...THE VENGEANCE OF THE RGV WIND MACHINE AND WARMING WILL BE
IN FULL SWING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE SIERRAS. SURFACE TO 850MB WINDS TO VEER S-
SW-W THIS IS GOOD SIGNAL FOR DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS NICELY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 90 DEGREES. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT NUMBERS. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG, FOG NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE, TO QUICKLY BURN OFF AND LIFT WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON SKY. SURFACE WINDS AS MENTION BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY AS TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM COAST TO
SIERRA STRENGTHENS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF WARMING TREND TO QUICKLY GO INTO
REVERSE AS THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG NORTHERN JET MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
ARCTIC HIGH SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY INCREASING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
COLD AIR. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
LOWER VALLEY BY 4 AM. RAPID FORCING OF THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
OVER THE WARM MOIST LAYER TO ALLOW FOR QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY TIGHT SO FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE FELT BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES. MODELS GUIDANCE SHOWS A DROP OF 30+ DEGREES
IN 9 HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM AT BROWNSVILLE. THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHING A 3 HOUR TIME PERIOD WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH BROWNSVILLE AT 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. THIS
SCENARIO IS HIGHLY PROBABLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS
ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...HAVING FAILED TO COMPLETELY PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MID LEVEL FEATURE. HENCE...AS COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...PROLONGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ENSURING AN OVER RUNNING PATTERN THAT LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL FILL OVER THE WEEKEND...A
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN OVER NW MEXICO...PREVENTING THE MID LEVEL
FLOW FROM VEERING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE HOPES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE PUT ON
HOLD FOR A TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AN ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST HAVE A CHANCE OF TOUCHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUSTAINED CAA AND
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
TO KEEP THE SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP GOING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER WHICH A RECOVERY OF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GET BACK TO THE SAME READINGS
AS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGH FOR
THE DAY MAY OCCUR AT DAWN HOWEVER. ALSO BACKED OFF ON HIGHER POPS
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE. LIGHT RAIN STILL IN THE CARDS BUT QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL GENERATE THICK LOW CLOUDS AT THE LEAST...HOWEVER.

THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL
SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND PERSISTENT POPS LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 500 MB
LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST OVER TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL
HOLD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND...
TENDING TO HOLD OFF ANY SERIOUS WARMING THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE
PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRIDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES THEN SHOW UP AS THE TWO MODELS
WRESTLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGHING MOVING
ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THE DIFFERENCES DON`T SEEM TO TRANSLATE INTO
ANY BIG ISSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE ADVERTISED FORECAST...BUT
COULD HAVE MORE RELEVANCE DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS FINALLY RETURN. THE ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO LOWER
INLAND. THE COOLER WATER SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND POTENTIAL BUT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO FINISH ANY BUSINESS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A MAJOR COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCHES ARE POSTED AND WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY. THE
SHARP FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM THEN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE THE SURGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY SWITCH TO
GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
ARCTIC ORIGINS. GALES WILL ALSO OCCUR ON THE LAGUNA MADRE...BUT
WINDS MAY WEAKEN A BIT EARLIER THERE...MID THURSDAY...THAN ON THE
OPEN GULF. SEAS ON THE GULF WILL BUILD TO 12 FEET DURING THE DAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR MASS SLOWLY SPREADS OVER THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM MARINE FCST WILL CONSIST OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF MAY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE SEVEN FEET INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  42  40 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  40  38 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  39  38 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  38  37 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  40  36 /  10  60  40  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  46  46  43 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR GMZ130-
     132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 040619 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1219 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED OVER THE AERODROMES...EVEN TO THE
POINT OF LIFR AT BRO. POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TOMORROW AFTER SUNRISE
DUE TO BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY RISING CEILINGS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH TOMORROW NIGHT...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO DIMINISH
AND LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP. THE NEXT ITERATION OF TAFS WILL LIKELY
HAVE THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...A STRATUS DECK AROUND
1K FEET WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET WITH MODERATE WINDS IN PLACE. THE
TAFS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC VISIBILITIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE MODERATE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT
MORE DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. ON WEDNESDAY...FULL VFR WILL RETURN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAJOR WESTERN TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING WESTWARD FROM THE COAST. ALREADY AS OF 1 PM THE TEMP IN
BROWNSVILLE HAS EXCEEDED 80 DEGREES. THE WARM FRONT IS MAKING SLOW
WESTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 5 PM.
TEMPERATURES MIGHT CONTINUE TO WARM AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING KICKS IN.

TONIGHT...SURFACE INVERSION REESTABLISHES ITSELF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET WITH A BRISK LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KNOTS  DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE LOWERING PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRATUS TO QUICKLY
REFORM AND WITH THE CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING SLOWED
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY...THE VENGEANCE OF THE RGV WIND MACHINE AND WARMING WILL BE
IN FULL SWING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE SIERRAS. SURFACE TO 850MB WINDS TO VEER S-
SW-W THIS IS GOOD SIGNAL FOR DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS NICELY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 90 DEGREES. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT NUMBERS. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG, FOG NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE, TO QUICKLY BURN OFF AND LIFT WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON SKY. SURFACE WINDS AS MENTION BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY AS TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM COAST TO
SIERRA STRENGTHENS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF WARMING TREND TO QUICKLY GO INTO
REVERSE AS THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG NORTHERN JET MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
ARCTIC HIGH SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY INCREASING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
COLD AIR. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
LOWER VALLEY BY 4 AM. RAPID FORCING OF THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
OVER THE WARM MOIST LAYER TO ALLOW FOR QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY TIGHT SO FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE FELT BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES. MODELS GUIDANCE SHOWS A DROP OF 30+ DEGREES
IN 9 HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM AT BROWNSVILLE. THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHING A 3 HOUR TIME PERIOD WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH BROWNSVILLE AT 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. THIS
SCENARIO IS HIGHLY PROBABLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS
ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...HAVING FAILED TO COMPLETELY PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MID LEVEL FEATURE. HENCE...AS COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...PROLONGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ENSURING AN OVER RUNNING PATTERN THAT LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL FILL OVER THE WEEKEND...A
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN OVER NW MEXICO...PREVENTING THE MID LEVEL
FLOW FROM VEERING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE HOPES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE PUT ON
HOLD FOR A TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AN ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST HAVE A CHANCE OF TOUCHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUSTAINED CAA AND
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
TO KEEP THE SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP GOING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER WHICH A RECOVERY OF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GET BACK TO THE SAME READINGS
AS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGH FOR
THE DAY MAY OCCUR AT DAWN HOWEVER. ALSO BACKED OFF ON HIGHER POPS
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE. LIGHT RAIN STILL IN THE CARDS BUT QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL GENERATE THICK LOW CLOUDS AT THE LEAST...HOWEVER.

THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL
SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND PERSISTENT POPS LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 500 MB
LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST OVER TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL
HOLD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND...
TENDING TO HOLD OFF ANY SERIOUS WARMING THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE
PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRIDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES THEN SHOW UP AS THE TWO MODELS
WRESTLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGHING MOVING
ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THE DIFFERENCES DON`T SEEM TO TRANSLATE INTO
ANY BIG ISSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE ADVERTISED FORECAST...BUT
COULD HAVE MORE RELEVANCE DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS FINALLY RETURN. THE ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO LOWER
INLAND. THE COOLER WATER SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND POTENTIAL BUT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO FINISH ANY BUSINESS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A MAJOR COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCHES ARE POSTED AND WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY. THE
SHARP FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM THEN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE THE SURGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY SWITCH TO
GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
ARCTIC ORIGINS. GALES WILL ALSO OCCUR ON THE LAGUNA MADRE...BUT
WINDS MAY WEAKEN A BIT EARLIER THERE...MID THURSDAY...THAN ON THE
OPEN GULF. SEAS ON THE GULF WILL BUILD TO 12 FEET DURING THE DAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR MASS SLOWLY SPREADS OVER THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM MARINE FCST WILL CONSIST OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF MAY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE SEVEN FEET INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  42  40 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  40  38 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  39  38 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  38  37 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  40  36 /  10  60  40  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  46  46  43 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR GMZ130-
     132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 032336 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
536 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...A STRATUS DECK AROUND
1K FEET WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET WITH MODERATE WINDS IN PLACE. THE
TAFS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC VISIBILITIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE MODERATE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT
MORE DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. ON WEDNESDAY...FULL VFR WILL RETURN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAJOR WESTERN TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING WESTWARD FROM THE COAST. ALREADY AS OF 1 PM THE TEMP IN
BROWNSVILLE HAS EXCEEDED 80 DEGREES. THE WARM FRONT IS MAKING SLOW
WESTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 5 PM.
TEMPERATURES MIGHT CONTINUE TO WARM AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING KICKS IN.

TONIGHT...SURFACE INVERSION REESTABLISHES ITSELF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET WITH A BRISK LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KNOTS  DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE LOWERING PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRATUS TO QUICKLY
REFORM AND WITH THE CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING SLOWED
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY...THE VENGEANCE OF THE RGV WIND MACHINE AND WARMING WILL BE
IN FULL SWING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE SIERRAS. SURFACE TO 850MB WINDS TO VEER S-
SW-W THIS IS GOOD SIGNAL FOR DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS NICELY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 90 DEGREES. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT NUMBERS. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG, FOG NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE, TO QUICKLY BURN OFF AND LIFT WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON SKY. SURFACE WINDS AS MENTION BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY AS TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM COAST TO
SIERRA STRENGTHENS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF WARMING TREND TO QUICKLY GO INTO
REVERSE AS THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG NORTHERN JET MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
ARCTIC HIGH SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY INCREASING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
COLD AIR. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
LOWER VALLEY BY 4 AM. RAPID FORCING OF THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
OVER THE WARM MOIST LAYER TO ALLOW FOR QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY TIGHT SO FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE FELT BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES. MODELS GUIDANCE SHOWS A DROP OF 30+ DEGREES
IN 9 HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM AT BROWNSVILLE. THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHING A 3 HOUR TIME PERIOD WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH BROWNSVILLE AT 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. THIS
SCENARIO IS HIGHLY PROBABLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS
ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...HAVING FAILED TO COMPLETELY PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MID LEVEL FEATURE. HENCE...AS COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...PROLONGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ENSURING AN OVER RUNNING PATTERN THAT LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL FILL OVER THE WEEKEND...A
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN OVER NW MEXICO...PREVENTING THE MID LEVEL
FLOW FROM VEERING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE HOPES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE PUT ON
HOLD FOR A TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AN ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST HAVE A CHANCE OF TOUCHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUSTAINED CAA AND
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
TO KEEP THE SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP GOING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER WHICH A RECOVERY OF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GET BACK TO THE SAME READINGS
AS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGH FOR
THE DAY MAY OCCUR AT DAWN HOWEVER. ALSO BACKED OFF ON HIGHER POPS
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE. LIGHT RAIN STILL IN THE CARDS BUT QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL GENERATE THICK LOW CLOUDS AT THE LEAST...HOWEVER.

THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL
SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND PERSISTENT POPS LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 500 MB
LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST OVER TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL
HOLD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND...
TENDING TO HOLD OFF ANY SERIOUS WARMING THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE
PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRIDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES THEN SHOW UP AS THE TWO MODELS
WRESTLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGHING MOVING
ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THE DIFFERENCES DON`T SEEM TO TRANSLATE INTO
ANY BIG ISSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE ADVERTISED FORECAST...BUT
COULD HAVE MORE RELEVANCE DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS FINALLY RETURN. THE ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO LOWER
INLAND. THE COOLER WATER SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND POTENTIAL BUT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO FINISH ANY BUSINESS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A MAJOR COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCHES ARE POSTED AND WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY. THE
SHARP FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM THEN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE THE SURGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY SWITCH TO
GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
ARCTIC ORIGINS. GALES WILL ALSO OCCUR ON THE LAGUNA MADRE...BUT
WINDS MAY WEAKEN A BIT EARLIER THERE...MID THURSDAY...THAN ON THE
OPEN GULF. SEAS ON THE GULF WILL BUILD TO 12 FEET DURING THE DAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR MASS SLOWLY SPREADS OVER THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM MARINE FCST WILL CONSIST OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF MAY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE SEVEN FEET INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV




000
FXUS64 KBRO 032336 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
536 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...A STRATUS DECK AROUND
1K FEET WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET WITH MODERATE WINDS IN PLACE. THE
TAFS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC VISIBILITIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE MODERATE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT
MORE DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. ON WEDNESDAY...FULL VFR WILL RETURN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAJOR WESTERN TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING WESTWARD FROM THE COAST. ALREADY AS OF 1 PM THE TEMP IN
BROWNSVILLE HAS EXCEEDED 80 DEGREES. THE WARM FRONT IS MAKING SLOW
WESTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 5 PM.
TEMPERATURES MIGHT CONTINUE TO WARM AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING KICKS IN.

TONIGHT...SURFACE INVERSION REESTABLISHES ITSELF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET WITH A BRISK LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KNOTS  DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE LOWERING PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRATUS TO QUICKLY
REFORM AND WITH THE CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING SLOWED
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY...THE VENGEANCE OF THE RGV WIND MACHINE AND WARMING WILL BE
IN FULL SWING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE SIERRAS. SURFACE TO 850MB WINDS TO VEER S-
SW-W THIS IS GOOD SIGNAL FOR DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS NICELY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 90 DEGREES. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT NUMBERS. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG, FOG NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE, TO QUICKLY BURN OFF AND LIFT WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON SKY. SURFACE WINDS AS MENTION BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY AS TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM COAST TO
SIERRA STRENGTHENS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF WARMING TREND TO QUICKLY GO INTO
REVERSE AS THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG NORTHERN JET MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
ARCTIC HIGH SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY INCREASING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
COLD AIR. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
LOWER VALLEY BY 4 AM. RAPID FORCING OF THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
OVER THE WARM MOIST LAYER TO ALLOW FOR QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY TIGHT SO FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE FELT BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES. MODELS GUIDANCE SHOWS A DROP OF 30+ DEGREES
IN 9 HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM AT BROWNSVILLE. THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHING A 3 HOUR TIME PERIOD WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH BROWNSVILLE AT 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. THIS
SCENARIO IS HIGHLY PROBABLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS
ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...HAVING FAILED TO COMPLETELY PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MID LEVEL FEATURE. HENCE...AS COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...PROLONGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ENSURING AN OVER RUNNING PATTERN THAT LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL FILL OVER THE WEEKEND...A
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN OVER NW MEXICO...PREVENTING THE MID LEVEL
FLOW FROM VEERING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE HOPES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE PUT ON
HOLD FOR A TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AN ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST HAVE A CHANCE OF TOUCHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUSTAINED CAA AND
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
TO KEEP THE SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP GOING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER WHICH A RECOVERY OF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GET BACK TO THE SAME READINGS
AS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGH FOR
THE DAY MAY OCCUR AT DAWN HOWEVER. ALSO BACKED OFF ON HIGHER POPS
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE. LIGHT RAIN STILL IN THE CARDS BUT QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL GENERATE THICK LOW CLOUDS AT THE LEAST...HOWEVER.

THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL
SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND PERSISTENT POPS LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 500 MB
LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST OVER TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL
HOLD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND...
TENDING TO HOLD OFF ANY SERIOUS WARMING THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE
PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRIDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES THEN SHOW UP AS THE TWO MODELS
WRESTLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGHING MOVING
ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THE DIFFERENCES DON`T SEEM TO TRANSLATE INTO
ANY BIG ISSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE ADVERTISED FORECAST...BUT
COULD HAVE MORE RELEVANCE DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS FINALLY RETURN. THE ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO LOWER
INLAND. THE COOLER WATER SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND POTENTIAL BUT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO FINISH ANY BUSINESS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A MAJOR COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCHES ARE POSTED AND WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY. THE
SHARP FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM THEN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE THE SURGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY SWITCH TO
GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
ARCTIC ORIGINS. GALES WILL ALSO OCCUR ON THE LAGUNA MADRE...BUT
WINDS MAY WEAKEN A BIT EARLIER THERE...MID THURSDAY...THAN ON THE
OPEN GULF. SEAS ON THE GULF WILL BUILD TO 12 FEET DURING THE DAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR MASS SLOWLY SPREADS OVER THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM MARINE FCST WILL CONSIST OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF MAY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE SEVEN FEET INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KBRO 032336 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
536 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...A STRATUS DECK AROUND
1K FEET WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET WITH MODERATE WINDS IN PLACE. THE
TAFS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC VISIBILITIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE MODERATE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT
MORE DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. ON WEDNESDAY...FULL VFR WILL RETURN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAJOR WESTERN TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING WESTWARD FROM THE COAST. ALREADY AS OF 1 PM THE TEMP IN
BROWNSVILLE HAS EXCEEDED 80 DEGREES. THE WARM FRONT IS MAKING SLOW
WESTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 5 PM.
TEMPERATURES MIGHT CONTINUE TO WARM AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING KICKS IN.

TONIGHT...SURFACE INVERSION REESTABLISHES ITSELF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET WITH A BRISK LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KNOTS  DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE LOWERING PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRATUS TO QUICKLY
REFORM AND WITH THE CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING SLOWED
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY...THE VENGEANCE OF THE RGV WIND MACHINE AND WARMING WILL BE
IN FULL SWING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE SIERRAS. SURFACE TO 850MB WINDS TO VEER S-
SW-W THIS IS GOOD SIGNAL FOR DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS NICELY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 90 DEGREES. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT NUMBERS. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG, FOG NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE, TO QUICKLY BURN OFF AND LIFT WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON SKY. SURFACE WINDS AS MENTION BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY AS TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM COAST TO
SIERRA STRENGTHENS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF WARMING TREND TO QUICKLY GO INTO
REVERSE AS THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG NORTHERN JET MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
ARCTIC HIGH SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY INCREASING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
COLD AIR. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
LOWER VALLEY BY 4 AM. RAPID FORCING OF THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
OVER THE WARM MOIST LAYER TO ALLOW FOR QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY TIGHT SO FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE FELT BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES. MODELS GUIDANCE SHOWS A DROP OF 30+ DEGREES
IN 9 HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM AT BROWNSVILLE. THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHING A 3 HOUR TIME PERIOD WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH BROWNSVILLE AT 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. THIS
SCENARIO IS HIGHLY PROBABLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS
ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...HAVING FAILED TO COMPLETELY PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MID LEVEL FEATURE. HENCE...AS COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...PROLONGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ENSURING AN OVER RUNNING PATTERN THAT LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL FILL OVER THE WEEKEND...A
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN OVER NW MEXICO...PREVENTING THE MID LEVEL
FLOW FROM VEERING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE HOPES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE PUT ON
HOLD FOR A TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AN ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST HAVE A CHANCE OF TOUCHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUSTAINED CAA AND
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
TO KEEP THE SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP GOING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER WHICH A RECOVERY OF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GET BACK TO THE SAME READINGS
AS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGH FOR
THE DAY MAY OCCUR AT DAWN HOWEVER. ALSO BACKED OFF ON HIGHER POPS
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE. LIGHT RAIN STILL IN THE CARDS BUT QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL GENERATE THICK LOW CLOUDS AT THE LEAST...HOWEVER.

THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL
SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND PERSISTENT POPS LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 500 MB
LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST OVER TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL
HOLD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND...
TENDING TO HOLD OFF ANY SERIOUS WARMING THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE
PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRIDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES THEN SHOW UP AS THE TWO MODELS
WRESTLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGHING MOVING
ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THE DIFFERENCES DON`T SEEM TO TRANSLATE INTO
ANY BIG ISSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE ADVERTISED FORECAST...BUT
COULD HAVE MORE RELEVANCE DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS FINALLY RETURN. THE ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO LOWER
INLAND. THE COOLER WATER SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND POTENTIAL BUT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO FINISH ANY BUSINESS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A MAJOR COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCHES ARE POSTED AND WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY. THE
SHARP FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM THEN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE THE SURGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY SWITCH TO
GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
ARCTIC ORIGINS. GALES WILL ALSO OCCUR ON THE LAGUNA MADRE...BUT
WINDS MAY WEAKEN A BIT EARLIER THERE...MID THURSDAY...THAN ON THE
OPEN GULF. SEAS ON THE GULF WILL BUILD TO 12 FEET DURING THE DAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR MASS SLOWLY SPREADS OVER THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM MARINE FCST WILL CONSIST OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF MAY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE SEVEN FEET INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV




000
FXUS64 KBRO 032336 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
536 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...A STRATUS DECK AROUND
1K FEET WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET WITH MODERATE WINDS IN PLACE. THE
TAFS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC VISIBILITIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE MODERATE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT
MORE DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. ON WEDNESDAY...FULL VFR WILL RETURN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAJOR WESTERN TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING WESTWARD FROM THE COAST. ALREADY AS OF 1 PM THE TEMP IN
BROWNSVILLE HAS EXCEEDED 80 DEGREES. THE WARM FRONT IS MAKING SLOW
WESTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 5 PM.
TEMPERATURES MIGHT CONTINUE TO WARM AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING KICKS IN.

TONIGHT...SURFACE INVERSION REESTABLISHES ITSELF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET WITH A BRISK LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KNOTS  DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE LOWERING PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRATUS TO QUICKLY
REFORM AND WITH THE CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING SLOWED
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY...THE VENGEANCE OF THE RGV WIND MACHINE AND WARMING WILL BE
IN FULL SWING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE SIERRAS. SURFACE TO 850MB WINDS TO VEER S-
SW-W THIS IS GOOD SIGNAL FOR DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS NICELY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 90 DEGREES. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT NUMBERS. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG, FOG NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE, TO QUICKLY BURN OFF AND LIFT WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON SKY. SURFACE WINDS AS MENTION BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY AS TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM COAST TO
SIERRA STRENGTHENS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF WARMING TREND TO QUICKLY GO INTO
REVERSE AS THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG NORTHERN JET MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
ARCTIC HIGH SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY INCREASING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
COLD AIR. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
LOWER VALLEY BY 4 AM. RAPID FORCING OF THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
OVER THE WARM MOIST LAYER TO ALLOW FOR QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY TIGHT SO FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE FELT BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES. MODELS GUIDANCE SHOWS A DROP OF 30+ DEGREES
IN 9 HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM AT BROWNSVILLE. THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHING A 3 HOUR TIME PERIOD WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH BROWNSVILLE AT 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. THIS
SCENARIO IS HIGHLY PROBABLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS
ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...HAVING FAILED TO COMPLETELY PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MID LEVEL FEATURE. HENCE...AS COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...PROLONGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ENSURING AN OVER RUNNING PATTERN THAT LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL FILL OVER THE WEEKEND...A
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN OVER NW MEXICO...PREVENTING THE MID LEVEL
FLOW FROM VEERING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE HOPES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE PUT ON
HOLD FOR A TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AN ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST HAVE A CHANCE OF TOUCHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUSTAINED CAA AND
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
TO KEEP THE SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP GOING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER WHICH A RECOVERY OF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GET BACK TO THE SAME READINGS
AS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGH FOR
THE DAY MAY OCCUR AT DAWN HOWEVER. ALSO BACKED OFF ON HIGHER POPS
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE. LIGHT RAIN STILL IN THE CARDS BUT QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL GENERATE THICK LOW CLOUDS AT THE LEAST...HOWEVER.

THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL
SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND PERSISTENT POPS LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 500 MB
LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST OVER TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL
HOLD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND...
TENDING TO HOLD OFF ANY SERIOUS WARMING THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE
PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRIDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES THEN SHOW UP AS THE TWO MODELS
WRESTLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGHING MOVING
ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THE DIFFERENCES DON`T SEEM TO TRANSLATE INTO
ANY BIG ISSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE ADVERTISED FORECAST...BUT
COULD HAVE MORE RELEVANCE DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS FINALLY RETURN. THE ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO LOWER
INLAND. THE COOLER WATER SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND POTENTIAL BUT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO FINISH ANY BUSINESS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A MAJOR COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCHES ARE POSTED AND WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY. THE
SHARP FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM THEN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE THE SURGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY SWITCH TO
GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
ARCTIC ORIGINS. GALES WILL ALSO OCCUR ON THE LAGUNA MADRE...BUT
WINDS MAY WEAKEN A BIT EARLIER THERE...MID THURSDAY...THAN ON THE
OPEN GULF. SEAS ON THE GULF WILL BUILD TO 12 FEET DURING THE DAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR MASS SLOWLY SPREADS OVER THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM MARINE FCST WILL CONSIST OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF MAY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE SEVEN FEET INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KBRO 032046
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
246 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAJOR WESTERN TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING WESTWARD FROM THE COAST. ALREADY AS OF 1 PM THE TEMP IN
BROWNSVILLE HAS EXCEEDED 80 DEGREES. THE WARM FRONT IS MAKING SLOW
WESTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 5 PM.
TEMPERATURES MIGHT CONTINUE TO WARM AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING KICKS IN.

TONIGHT...SURFACE INVERSION REESTABLISHES ITSELF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET WITH A BRISK LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KNOTS  DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE LOWERING PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRATUS TO QUICKLY
REFORM AND WITH THE CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING SLOWED
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY...THE VENGEANCE OF THE RGV WIND MACHINE AND WARMING WILL BE
IN FULL SWING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE SIERRAS. SURFACE TO 850MB WINDS TO VEER S-
SW-W THIS IS GOOD SIGNAL FOR DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS NICELY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 90 DEGREES. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT NUMBERS. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG, FOG NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE, TO QUICKLY BURN OFF AND LIFT WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON SKY. SURFACE WINDS AS MENTION BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY AS TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM COAST TO
SIERRA STRENGTHENS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF WARMING TREND TO QUICKLY GO INTO
REVERSE AS THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG NORTHERN JET MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
ARCTIC HIGH SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY INCREASING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
COLD AIR. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
LOWER VALLEY BY 4 AM. RAPID FORCING OF THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
OVER THE WARM MOIST LAYER TO ALLOW FOR QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY TIGHT SO FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE FELT BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES. MODELS GUIDANCE SHOWS A DROP OF 30+ DEGREES
IN 9 HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM AT BROWNSVILLE. THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHING A 3 HOUR TIME PERIOD WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH BROWNSVILLE AT 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. THIS
SCENARIO IS HIGHLY PROBABLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS
ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...HAVING FAILED TO COMPLETELY PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MID LEVEL FEATURE. HENCE...AS COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...PROLONGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ENSURING AN OVER RUNNING PATTERN THAT LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL FILL OVER THE WEEKEND...A
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN OVER NW MEXICO...PREVENTING THE MID LEVEL
FLOW FROM VEERING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE HOPES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE PUT ON
HOLD FOR A TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AN ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST HAVE A CHANCE OF TOUCHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUSTAINED CAA AND
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
TO KEEP THE SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP GOING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER WHICH A RECOVERY OF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GET BACK TO THE SAME READINGS
AS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGH FOR
THE DAY MAY OCCUR AT DAWN HOWEVER. ALSO BACKED OFF ON HIGHER POPS
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE. LIGHT RAIN STILL IN THE CARDS BUT QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL GENERATE THICK LOW CLOUDS AT THE LEAST...HOWEVER.

THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL
SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND PERSISTENT POPS LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 500 MB
LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST OVER TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL
HOLD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND...
TENDING TO HOLD OFF ANY SERIOUS WARMING THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE
PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRIDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES THEN SHOW UP AS THE TWO MODELS
WRESTLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGHING MOVING
ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THE DIFFERENCES DON`T SEEM TO TRANSLATE INTO
ANY BIG ISSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE ADVERTISED FORECAST...BUT
COULD HAVE MORE RELEVANCE DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS FINALLY RETURN. THE ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO LOWER
INLAND. THE COOLER WATER SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND POTENTIAL BUT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO FINISH ANY BUSINESS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A MAJOR COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCHES ARE POSTED AND WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY. THE
SHARP FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM THEN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE THE SURGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY SWITCH TO
GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
ARCTIC ORIGINS. GALES WILL ALSO OCCUR ON THE LAGUNA MADRE...BUT
WINDS MAY WEAKEN A BIT EARLIER THERE...MID THURSDAY...THAN ON THE
OPEN GULF. SEAS ON THE GULF WILL BUILD TO 12 FEET DURING THE DAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR MASS SLOWLY SPREADS OVER THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM MARINE FCST WILL CONSIST OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF MAY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE SEVEN FEET INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  67  80  42  42 /  10  10  50  60
BROWNSVILLE          66  84  39  40 /  10  10  50  60
HARLINGEN            68  85  39  39 /  10  10  60  60
MCALLEN              67  87  38  38 /  10  10  60  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      64  88  40  40 /  10  10  60  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   66  71  46  46 /  10  10  50  60

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/54/58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 032046
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
246 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAJOR WESTERN TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING WESTWARD FROM THE COAST. ALREADY AS OF 1 PM THE TEMP IN
BROWNSVILLE HAS EXCEEDED 80 DEGREES. THE WARM FRONT IS MAKING SLOW
WESTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 5 PM.
TEMPERATURES MIGHT CONTINUE TO WARM AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING KICKS IN.

TONIGHT...SURFACE INVERSION REESTABLISHES ITSELF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET WITH A BRISK LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KNOTS  DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE LOWERING PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRATUS TO QUICKLY
REFORM AND WITH THE CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING SLOWED
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY...THE VENGEANCE OF THE RGV WIND MACHINE AND WARMING WILL BE
IN FULL SWING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE SIERRAS. SURFACE TO 850MB WINDS TO VEER S-
SW-W THIS IS GOOD SIGNAL FOR DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS NICELY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 90 DEGREES. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT NUMBERS. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG, FOG NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE, TO QUICKLY BURN OFF AND LIFT WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON SKY. SURFACE WINDS AS MENTION BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY AS TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM COAST TO
SIERRA STRENGTHENS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF WARMING TREND TO QUICKLY GO INTO
REVERSE AS THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG NORTHERN JET MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
ARCTIC HIGH SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY INCREASING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
COLD AIR. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
LOWER VALLEY BY 4 AM. RAPID FORCING OF THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
OVER THE WARM MOIST LAYER TO ALLOW FOR QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY TIGHT SO FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE FELT BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES. MODELS GUIDANCE SHOWS A DROP OF 30+ DEGREES
IN 9 HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM AT BROWNSVILLE. THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHING A 3 HOUR TIME PERIOD WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH BROWNSVILLE AT 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. THIS
SCENARIO IS HIGHLY PROBABLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS
ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...HAVING FAILED TO COMPLETELY PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MID LEVEL FEATURE. HENCE...AS COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...PROLONGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ENSURING AN OVER RUNNING PATTERN THAT LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL FILL OVER THE WEEKEND...A
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN OVER NW MEXICO...PREVENTING THE MID LEVEL
FLOW FROM VEERING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE HOPES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE PUT ON
HOLD FOR A TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AN ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST HAVE A CHANCE OF TOUCHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUSTAINED CAA AND
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
TO KEEP THE SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP GOING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER WHICH A RECOVERY OF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GET BACK TO THE SAME READINGS
AS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGH FOR
THE DAY MAY OCCUR AT DAWN HOWEVER. ALSO BACKED OFF ON HIGHER POPS
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE. LIGHT RAIN STILL IN THE CARDS BUT QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL GENERATE THICK LOW CLOUDS AT THE LEAST...HOWEVER.

THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL
SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND PERSISTENT POPS LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 500 MB
LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST OVER TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL
HOLD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND...
TENDING TO HOLD OFF ANY SERIOUS WARMING THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE
PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRIDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES THEN SHOW UP AS THE TWO MODELS
WRESTLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGHING MOVING
ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THE DIFFERENCES DON`T SEEM TO TRANSLATE INTO
ANY BIG ISSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE ADVERTISED FORECAST...BUT
COULD HAVE MORE RELEVANCE DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS FINALLY RETURN. THE ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO LOWER
INLAND. THE COOLER WATER SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND POTENTIAL BUT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO FINISH ANY BUSINESS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A MAJOR COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCHES ARE POSTED AND WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY. THE
SHARP FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM THEN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE THE SURGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY SWITCH TO
GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
ARCTIC ORIGINS. GALES WILL ALSO OCCUR ON THE LAGUNA MADRE...BUT
WINDS MAY WEAKEN A BIT EARLIER THERE...MID THURSDAY...THAN ON THE
OPEN GULF. SEAS ON THE GULF WILL BUILD TO 12 FEET DURING THE DAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR MASS SLOWLY SPREADS OVER THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM MARINE FCST WILL CONSIST OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF MAY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE SEVEN FEET INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  67  80  42  42 /  10  10  50  60
BROWNSVILLE          66  84  39  40 /  10  10  50  60
HARLINGEN            68  85  39  39 /  10  10  60  60
MCALLEN              67  87  38  38 /  10  10  60  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      64  88  40  40 /  10  10  60  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   66  71  46  46 /  10  10  50  60

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/54/58





000
FXUS64 KBRO 031736 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1136 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SKY OBSCURATIONS AND CEILINGS ARE CHANGING RAPIDLY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ALONG THE COAST. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST FURTHER IMPROVEMENT OF
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. MODELS DO SUGGEST THOUGH AT
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE BUT IN A WEAKEN STATE
KEEPING SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. VFR IS POSSIBLE AT KBRO
BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND IS LOW CONFIDENCE. EXPECT
FURTHER AMENDMENTS TO THE TAFS IF SKIES CLEAR MORE RAPIDLY THEN
EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING
20-25 KNOTS BUT MIGHT NOT BE TOTALLY REALIZED IF THE CLOUD COVER
REMAINS THICK ENOUGH LIMITING TOTAL MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS
AT 2-3K FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...LET THE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE. FOG CONTINUES BUT AT
MUCH IMPROVED VISIBILITIES OF 1-2 MILES. HINTS OF A SOUTH WINDS
ARE DEVELOPING AND THE GRADUAL INCREASE OF THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
FURTHER ALLOW FOR THE FOG TO LIFT. LOW LEVEL INVERSION ALTHOUGH
WEAKENS BUT DOES NOT BREAK COMPLETELY KEEPING AN OVERCAST SKY ALL
DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS NEARLY AREA WIDE THIS MORNING
AMID NEARLY CALM WINDS. EXPECTING LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
FOR ATE LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. THOSE WINDS AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GRADUALLY HELP LIFT THE CIG TO AROUND 1000 FT
AND EVENTUALLY ABOUT 3000 FT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHETHER
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO FULL VFR OR REMAIN MVFR IS LOW CONFIDENCE. A
DETERIORATION BACK TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR IS FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AMID PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

RELEVANT FEATURES... AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE A SOUTHWESTERLY JET OFF
THE WESTERN CANADA COAST IS AMPLIFYING TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN US WHICH IS HELPING SHIFT EVERYTHING SLOWLY EASTWARD
DESPITE PRETTY STRONG JET ENERGY EAST OF THE PARENT TROUGH WITH
250MB SPEEDS INCREASING FROM 125 TO 165 KTS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THIS IS KEEPING A BROADLY DIVERGENT
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH COLD AIR DAMMED AGAINST THE
SIERRA MADRES FROM THE LAST FRONT BEING OVERRUN BY INCREASING SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLIES RESPONDING TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE RESULT IS
PLENTY OF THICK LOW OVERCAST AND FOG WITH COASTAL TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND SURFACE TROUGHING OVER SOUTH TEXAS LEADING TO
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY.

TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. DRYING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS SHOULD
HELP LOW CLOUDINESS CLEAR OUT AND LET TEMPERATURES RISE WARMER THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. WITH A STRONG SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST CLOUDS AND FOG MAY HOLD ON
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON ON THE ISLAND AND KEPT THAT IN
THE FORECAST. FURTHER INLAND SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

TONIGHT...THROUGH THE NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW EJECTS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE PARENT TROUGH INTO WEST TEXAS AND 850/925MB FLOW INCREASES. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP WIND SPEEDS UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY
HELP DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL HELP CLOUD COVER
ORGANIZE AND INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO LOWER 60S AMID INCREASING SURFACE
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
OVER THE GENERAL AREA OF LAREDO WITH A STRONG RESIDUAL TERRAIN
INVERSION KEEPING A CAP ON DEEP CONVECTION/SHOWERS DESPITE
INCREASING SFC HEATING AND MOISTURE. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLIES
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP LIKELY
INTO HE MID TO LOWER 80S. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WINDOW OF SOME
FOG FORMATION AROUND PADRE ISLAND AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHEN WIND
SPEEDS SLACKEN IF A SEA BREEZE TYPE CURRENT IS ABLE TO FORM FROM THE
60 DEGREE WATER TO THE 80 DEGREE LAND. A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN RANCHLANDS MAINLY TO
PROVIDE SOME TIMING WIGGLE ROOM TO THE ADVANCING FRONT. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...AN ELONGATED AND
DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES WED
NIGHT AND THURS. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHEAR
OFF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH AND WILL CLOSE OFF NEAR THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TX LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURS MORNING. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TX THURS THROUGH SAT. ALTHOUGH THE CAA WILL NOT RESULT
IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...THE COMBINATION OF THE
SUSTAINED CAA AND THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OVER THE REGION DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE
HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA WHICH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND
PERSISTENT POPS ON INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE COASTAL
TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP SOUTH TX LATER THIS
WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL THEN BE
FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALI 500 MB LOW WHICH WILL THEN OPEN
UP AND MOVE EASTWARDS OVER TX SUN AND MON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD THE
CLD COVER AND RAIN CHCS IN PLACE ON INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
TEND TO HOLD BACK ANY SERIOUS WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRI. THE MODELS THEN START DIVERGING FROM SAT THROUGH MON
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING ONTO THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA
CALI PENINSULA MUCH LONGER THAN THE GFS. FOR TEMPS AND POPS THESE
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HOLDING ONTO THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES LONGER VERSUS THE ECMWF. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COLDER
GFS SOLUTION SINCE THE HIGHS ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF THIS WEEKEND
LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE PERSISTENT CLD COVER AND
RAIN CHCS.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONGER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT ARRIVING AFTER DARK
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WED
NIGHT/THURS MORNING AS THE NEXT MAJOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES. MSL
FIELDS AFTER THE FROPA ARE VERY TIGHTLY PACKED ON THURS AND
ACCORDINGLY EXPECT A VERY STRONG POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS FROM LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS.
THE PGF WILL THEN RELAX A LITTLE BIT FRI AND SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE WINDS AND SEAS TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ESPECIALLY FOR THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  67  80  42 /  20  10  10  50
BROWNSVILLE          76  66  84  39 /  20  10  10  50
HARLINGEN            78  68  86  39 /  20  10  10  50
MCALLEN              80  67  87  38 /  20  10  10  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      80  64  88  40 /  20  10  10  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   69  66  75  46 /  20  10  10  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/54





000
FXUS64 KBRO 031736 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1136 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SKY OBSCURATIONS AND CEILINGS ARE CHANGING RAPIDLY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ALONG THE COAST. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST FURTHER IMPROVEMENT OF
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. MODELS DO SUGGEST THOUGH AT
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE BUT IN A WEAKEN STATE
KEEPING SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. VFR IS POSSIBLE AT KBRO
BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND IS LOW CONFIDENCE. EXPECT
FURTHER AMENDMENTS TO THE TAFS IF SKIES CLEAR MORE RAPIDLY THEN
EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING
20-25 KNOTS BUT MIGHT NOT BE TOTALLY REALIZED IF THE CLOUD COVER
REMAINS THICK ENOUGH LIMITING TOTAL MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS
AT 2-3K FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...LET THE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE. FOG CONTINUES BUT AT
MUCH IMPROVED VISIBILITIES OF 1-2 MILES. HINTS OF A SOUTH WINDS
ARE DEVELOPING AND THE GRADUAL INCREASE OF THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
FURTHER ALLOW FOR THE FOG TO LIFT. LOW LEVEL INVERSION ALTHOUGH
WEAKENS BUT DOES NOT BREAK COMPLETELY KEEPING AN OVERCAST SKY ALL
DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS NEARLY AREA WIDE THIS MORNING
AMID NEARLY CALM WINDS. EXPECTING LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
FOR ATE LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. THOSE WINDS AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GRADUALLY HELP LIFT THE CIG TO AROUND 1000 FT
AND EVENTUALLY ABOUT 3000 FT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHETHER
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO FULL VFR OR REMAIN MVFR IS LOW CONFIDENCE. A
DETERIORATION BACK TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR IS FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AMID PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

RELEVANT FEATURES... AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE A SOUTHWESTERLY JET OFF
THE WESTERN CANADA COAST IS AMPLIFYING TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN US WHICH IS HELPING SHIFT EVERYTHING SLOWLY EASTWARD
DESPITE PRETTY STRONG JET ENERGY EAST OF THE PARENT TROUGH WITH
250MB SPEEDS INCREASING FROM 125 TO 165 KTS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THIS IS KEEPING A BROADLY DIVERGENT
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH COLD AIR DAMMED AGAINST THE
SIERRA MADRES FROM THE LAST FRONT BEING OVERRUN BY INCREASING SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLIES RESPONDING TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE RESULT IS
PLENTY OF THICK LOW OVERCAST AND FOG WITH COASTAL TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND SURFACE TROUGHING OVER SOUTH TEXAS LEADING TO
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY.

TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. DRYING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS SHOULD
HELP LOW CLOUDINESS CLEAR OUT AND LET TEMPERATURES RISE WARMER THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. WITH A STRONG SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST CLOUDS AND FOG MAY HOLD ON
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON ON THE ISLAND AND KEPT THAT IN
THE FORECAST. FURTHER INLAND SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

TONIGHT...THROUGH THE NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW EJECTS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE PARENT TROUGH INTO WEST TEXAS AND 850/925MB FLOW INCREASES. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP WIND SPEEDS UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY
HELP DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL HELP CLOUD COVER
ORGANIZE AND INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO LOWER 60S AMID INCREASING SURFACE
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
OVER THE GENERAL AREA OF LAREDO WITH A STRONG RESIDUAL TERRAIN
INVERSION KEEPING A CAP ON DEEP CONVECTION/SHOWERS DESPITE
INCREASING SFC HEATING AND MOISTURE. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLIES
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP LIKELY
INTO HE MID TO LOWER 80S. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WINDOW OF SOME
FOG FORMATION AROUND PADRE ISLAND AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHEN WIND
SPEEDS SLACKEN IF A SEA BREEZE TYPE CURRENT IS ABLE TO FORM FROM THE
60 DEGREE WATER TO THE 80 DEGREE LAND. A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN RANCHLANDS MAINLY TO
PROVIDE SOME TIMING WIGGLE ROOM TO THE ADVANCING FRONT. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...AN ELONGATED AND
DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES WED
NIGHT AND THURS. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHEAR
OFF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH AND WILL CLOSE OFF NEAR THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TX LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURS MORNING. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TX THURS THROUGH SAT. ALTHOUGH THE CAA WILL NOT RESULT
IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...THE COMBINATION OF THE
SUSTAINED CAA AND THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OVER THE REGION DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE
HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA WHICH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND
PERSISTENT POPS ON INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE COASTAL
TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP SOUTH TX LATER THIS
WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL THEN BE
FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALI 500 MB LOW WHICH WILL THEN OPEN
UP AND MOVE EASTWARDS OVER TX SUN AND MON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD THE
CLD COVER AND RAIN CHCS IN PLACE ON INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
TEND TO HOLD BACK ANY SERIOUS WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRI. THE MODELS THEN START DIVERGING FROM SAT THROUGH MON
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING ONTO THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA
CALI PENINSULA MUCH LONGER THAN THE GFS. FOR TEMPS AND POPS THESE
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HOLDING ONTO THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES LONGER VERSUS THE ECMWF. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COLDER
GFS SOLUTION SINCE THE HIGHS ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF THIS WEEKEND
LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE PERSISTENT CLD COVER AND
RAIN CHCS.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONGER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT ARRIVING AFTER DARK
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WED
NIGHT/THURS MORNING AS THE NEXT MAJOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES. MSL
FIELDS AFTER THE FROPA ARE VERY TIGHTLY PACKED ON THURS AND
ACCORDINGLY EXPECT A VERY STRONG POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS FROM LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS.
THE PGF WILL THEN RELAX A LITTLE BIT FRI AND SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE WINDS AND SEAS TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ESPECIALLY FOR THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  67  80  42 /  20  10  10  50
BROWNSVILLE          76  66  84  39 /  20  10  10  50
HARLINGEN            78  68  86  39 /  20  10  10  50
MCALLEN              80  67  87  38 /  20  10  10  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      80  64  88  40 /  20  10  10  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   69  66  75  46 /  20  10  10  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/54




000
FXUS64 KBRO 031736 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1136 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SKY OBSCURATIONS AND CEILINGS ARE CHANGING RAPIDLY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ALONG THE COAST. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST FURTHER IMPROVEMENT OF
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. MODELS DO SUGGEST THOUGH AT
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE BUT IN A WEAKEN STATE
KEEPING SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. VFR IS POSSIBLE AT KBRO
BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND IS LOW CONFIDENCE. EXPECT
FURTHER AMENDMENTS TO THE TAFS IF SKIES CLEAR MORE RAPIDLY THEN
EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING
20-25 KNOTS BUT MIGHT NOT BE TOTALLY REALIZED IF THE CLOUD COVER
REMAINS THICK ENOUGH LIMITING TOTAL MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS
AT 2-3K FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...LET THE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE. FOG CONTINUES BUT AT
MUCH IMPROVED VISIBILITIES OF 1-2 MILES. HINTS OF A SOUTH WINDS
ARE DEVELOPING AND THE GRADUAL INCREASE OF THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
FURTHER ALLOW FOR THE FOG TO LIFT. LOW LEVEL INVERSION ALTHOUGH
WEAKENS BUT DOES NOT BREAK COMPLETELY KEEPING AN OVERCAST SKY ALL
DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS NEARLY AREA WIDE THIS MORNING
AMID NEARLY CALM WINDS. EXPECTING LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
FOR ATE LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. THOSE WINDS AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GRADUALLY HELP LIFT THE CIG TO AROUND 1000 FT
AND EVENTUALLY ABOUT 3000 FT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHETHER
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO FULL VFR OR REMAIN MVFR IS LOW CONFIDENCE. A
DETERIORATION BACK TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR IS FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AMID PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

RELEVANT FEATURES... AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE A SOUTHWESTERLY JET OFF
THE WESTERN CANADA COAST IS AMPLIFYING TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN US WHICH IS HELPING SHIFT EVERYTHING SLOWLY EASTWARD
DESPITE PRETTY STRONG JET ENERGY EAST OF THE PARENT TROUGH WITH
250MB SPEEDS INCREASING FROM 125 TO 165 KTS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THIS IS KEEPING A BROADLY DIVERGENT
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH COLD AIR DAMMED AGAINST THE
SIERRA MADRES FROM THE LAST FRONT BEING OVERRUN BY INCREASING SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLIES RESPONDING TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE RESULT IS
PLENTY OF THICK LOW OVERCAST AND FOG WITH COASTAL TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND SURFACE TROUGHING OVER SOUTH TEXAS LEADING TO
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY.

TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. DRYING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS SHOULD
HELP LOW CLOUDINESS CLEAR OUT AND LET TEMPERATURES RISE WARMER THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. WITH A STRONG SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST CLOUDS AND FOG MAY HOLD ON
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON ON THE ISLAND AND KEPT THAT IN
THE FORECAST. FURTHER INLAND SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

TONIGHT...THROUGH THE NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW EJECTS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE PARENT TROUGH INTO WEST TEXAS AND 850/925MB FLOW INCREASES. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP WIND SPEEDS UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY
HELP DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL HELP CLOUD COVER
ORGANIZE AND INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO LOWER 60S AMID INCREASING SURFACE
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
OVER THE GENERAL AREA OF LAREDO WITH A STRONG RESIDUAL TERRAIN
INVERSION KEEPING A CAP ON DEEP CONVECTION/SHOWERS DESPITE
INCREASING SFC HEATING AND MOISTURE. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLIES
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP LIKELY
INTO HE MID TO LOWER 80S. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WINDOW OF SOME
FOG FORMATION AROUND PADRE ISLAND AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHEN WIND
SPEEDS SLACKEN IF A SEA BREEZE TYPE CURRENT IS ABLE TO FORM FROM THE
60 DEGREE WATER TO THE 80 DEGREE LAND. A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN RANCHLANDS MAINLY TO
PROVIDE SOME TIMING WIGGLE ROOM TO THE ADVANCING FRONT. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...AN ELONGATED AND
DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES WED
NIGHT AND THURS. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHEAR
OFF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH AND WILL CLOSE OFF NEAR THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TX LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURS MORNING. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TX THURS THROUGH SAT. ALTHOUGH THE CAA WILL NOT RESULT
IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...THE COMBINATION OF THE
SUSTAINED CAA AND THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OVER THE REGION DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE
HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA WHICH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND
PERSISTENT POPS ON INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE COASTAL
TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP SOUTH TX LATER THIS
WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL THEN BE
FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALI 500 MB LOW WHICH WILL THEN OPEN
UP AND MOVE EASTWARDS OVER TX SUN AND MON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD THE
CLD COVER AND RAIN CHCS IN PLACE ON INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
TEND TO HOLD BACK ANY SERIOUS WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRI. THE MODELS THEN START DIVERGING FROM SAT THROUGH MON
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING ONTO THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA
CALI PENINSULA MUCH LONGER THAN THE GFS. FOR TEMPS AND POPS THESE
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HOLDING ONTO THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES LONGER VERSUS THE ECMWF. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COLDER
GFS SOLUTION SINCE THE HIGHS ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF THIS WEEKEND
LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE PERSISTENT CLD COVER AND
RAIN CHCS.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONGER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT ARRIVING AFTER DARK
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WED
NIGHT/THURS MORNING AS THE NEXT MAJOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES. MSL
FIELDS AFTER THE FROPA ARE VERY TIGHTLY PACKED ON THURS AND
ACCORDINGLY EXPECT A VERY STRONG POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS FROM LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS.
THE PGF WILL THEN RELAX A LITTLE BIT FRI AND SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE WINDS AND SEAS TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ESPECIALLY FOR THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  67  80  42 /  20  10  10  50
BROWNSVILLE          76  66  84  39 /  20  10  10  50
HARLINGEN            78  68  86  39 /  20  10  10  50
MCALLEN              80  67  87  38 /  20  10  10  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      80  64  88  40 /  20  10  10  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   69  66  75  46 /  20  10  10  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/54




000
FXUS64 KBRO 031736 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1136 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SKY OBSCURATIONS AND CEILINGS ARE CHANGING RAPIDLY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ALONG THE COAST. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST FURTHER IMPROVEMENT OF
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. MODELS DO SUGGEST THOUGH AT
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE BUT IN A WEAKEN STATE
KEEPING SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. VFR IS POSSIBLE AT KBRO
BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND IS LOW CONFIDENCE. EXPECT
FURTHER AMENDMENTS TO THE TAFS IF SKIES CLEAR MORE RAPIDLY THEN
EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING
20-25 KNOTS BUT MIGHT NOT BE TOTALLY REALIZED IF THE CLOUD COVER
REMAINS THICK ENOUGH LIMITING TOTAL MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS
AT 2-3K FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...LET THE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE. FOG CONTINUES BUT AT
MUCH IMPROVED VISIBILITIES OF 1-2 MILES. HINTS OF A SOUTH WINDS
ARE DEVELOPING AND THE GRADUAL INCREASE OF THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
FURTHER ALLOW FOR THE FOG TO LIFT. LOW LEVEL INVERSION ALTHOUGH
WEAKENS BUT DOES NOT BREAK COMPLETELY KEEPING AN OVERCAST SKY ALL
DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS NEARLY AREA WIDE THIS MORNING
AMID NEARLY CALM WINDS. EXPECTING LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
FOR ATE LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. THOSE WINDS AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GRADUALLY HELP LIFT THE CIG TO AROUND 1000 FT
AND EVENTUALLY ABOUT 3000 FT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHETHER
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO FULL VFR OR REMAIN MVFR IS LOW CONFIDENCE. A
DETERIORATION BACK TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR IS FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AMID PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

RELEVANT FEATURES... AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE A SOUTHWESTERLY JET OFF
THE WESTERN CANADA COAST IS AMPLIFYING TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN US WHICH IS HELPING SHIFT EVERYTHING SLOWLY EASTWARD
DESPITE PRETTY STRONG JET ENERGY EAST OF THE PARENT TROUGH WITH
250MB SPEEDS INCREASING FROM 125 TO 165 KTS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THIS IS KEEPING A BROADLY DIVERGENT
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH COLD AIR DAMMED AGAINST THE
SIERRA MADRES FROM THE LAST FRONT BEING OVERRUN BY INCREASING SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLIES RESPONDING TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE RESULT IS
PLENTY OF THICK LOW OVERCAST AND FOG WITH COASTAL TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND SURFACE TROUGHING OVER SOUTH TEXAS LEADING TO
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY.

TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. DRYING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS SHOULD
HELP LOW CLOUDINESS CLEAR OUT AND LET TEMPERATURES RISE WARMER THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. WITH A STRONG SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST CLOUDS AND FOG MAY HOLD ON
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON ON THE ISLAND AND KEPT THAT IN
THE FORECAST. FURTHER INLAND SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

TONIGHT...THROUGH THE NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW EJECTS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE PARENT TROUGH INTO WEST TEXAS AND 850/925MB FLOW INCREASES. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP WIND SPEEDS UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY
HELP DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL HELP CLOUD COVER
ORGANIZE AND INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO LOWER 60S AMID INCREASING SURFACE
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
OVER THE GENERAL AREA OF LAREDO WITH A STRONG RESIDUAL TERRAIN
INVERSION KEEPING A CAP ON DEEP CONVECTION/SHOWERS DESPITE
INCREASING SFC HEATING AND MOISTURE. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLIES
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP LIKELY
INTO HE MID TO LOWER 80S. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WINDOW OF SOME
FOG FORMATION AROUND PADRE ISLAND AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHEN WIND
SPEEDS SLACKEN IF A SEA BREEZE TYPE CURRENT IS ABLE TO FORM FROM THE
60 DEGREE WATER TO THE 80 DEGREE LAND. A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN RANCHLANDS MAINLY TO
PROVIDE SOME TIMING WIGGLE ROOM TO THE ADVANCING FRONT. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...AN ELONGATED AND
DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES WED
NIGHT AND THURS. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHEAR
OFF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH AND WILL CLOSE OFF NEAR THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TX LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURS MORNING. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TX THURS THROUGH SAT. ALTHOUGH THE CAA WILL NOT RESULT
IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...THE COMBINATION OF THE
SUSTAINED CAA AND THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OVER THE REGION DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE
HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA WHICH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND
PERSISTENT POPS ON INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE COASTAL
TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP SOUTH TX LATER THIS
WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL THEN BE
FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALI 500 MB LOW WHICH WILL THEN OPEN
UP AND MOVE EASTWARDS OVER TX SUN AND MON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD THE
CLD COVER AND RAIN CHCS IN PLACE ON INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
TEND TO HOLD BACK ANY SERIOUS WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRI. THE MODELS THEN START DIVERGING FROM SAT THROUGH MON
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING ONTO THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA
CALI PENINSULA MUCH LONGER THAN THE GFS. FOR TEMPS AND POPS THESE
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HOLDING ONTO THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES LONGER VERSUS THE ECMWF. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COLDER
GFS SOLUTION SINCE THE HIGHS ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF THIS WEEKEND
LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE PERSISTENT CLD COVER AND
RAIN CHCS.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONGER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT ARRIVING AFTER DARK
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WED
NIGHT/THURS MORNING AS THE NEXT MAJOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES. MSL
FIELDS AFTER THE FROPA ARE VERY TIGHTLY PACKED ON THURS AND
ACCORDINGLY EXPECT A VERY STRONG POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS FROM LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS.
THE PGF WILL THEN RELAX A LITTLE BIT FRI AND SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE WINDS AND SEAS TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ESPECIALLY FOR THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  67  80  42 /  20  10  10  50
BROWNSVILLE          76  66  84  39 /  20  10  10  50
HARLINGEN            78  68  86  39 /  20  10  10  50
MCALLEN              80  67  87  38 /  20  10  10  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      80  64  88  40 /  20  10  10  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   69  66  75  46 /  20  10  10  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/54





000
FXUS64 KBRO 031630
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1030 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...LET THE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE. FOG CONTINUES BUT AT
MUCH IMPROVED VISIBILITIES OF 1-2 MILES. HINTS OF A SOUTH WINDS
ARE DEVELOPING AND THE GRADUAL INCREASE OF THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
FURTHER ALLOW FOR THE FOG TO LIFT. LOW LEVEL INVERSION ALTHOUGH
WEAKENS BUT DOES NOT BREAK COMPLETELY KEEPING AN OVERCAST SKY ALL
DAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS NEARLY AREA WIDE THIS MORNING
AMID NEARLY CALM WINDS. EXPECTING LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
FOR ATE LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. THOSE WINDS AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GRADUALLY HELP LIFT THE CIG TO AROUND 1000 FT
AND EVENTUALLY ABOUT 3000 FT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHETHER
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO FULL VFR OR REMAIN MVFR IS LOW CONFIDENCE. A
DETERIORATION BACK TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR IS FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AMID PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

RELEVANT FEATURES... AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE A SOUTHWESTERLY JET OFF
THE WESTERN CANADA COAST IS AMPLIFYING TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN US WHICH IS HELPING SHIFT EVERYTHING SLOWLY EASTWARD
DESPITE PRETTY STRONG JET ENERGY EAST OF THE PARENT TROUGH WITH
250MB SPEEDS INCREASING FROM 125 TO 165 KTS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THIS IS KEEPING A BROADLY DIVERGENT
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH COLD AIR DAMMED AGAINST THE
SIERRA MADRES FROM THE LAST FRONT BEING OVERRUN BY INCREASING SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLIES RESPONDING TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE RESULT IS
PLENTY OF THICK LOW OVERCAST AND FOG WITH COASTAL TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND SURFACE TROUGHING OVER SOUTH TEXAS LEADING TO
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY.

TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. DRYING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS SHOULD
HELP LOW CLOUDINESS CLEAR OUT AND LET TEMPERATURES RISE WARMER THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. WITH A STRONG SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST CLOUDS AND FOG MAY HOLD ON
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON ON THE ISLAND AND KEPT THAT IN
THE FORECAST. FURTHER INLAND SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

TONIGHT...THROUGH THE NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW EJECTS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE PARENT TROUGH INTO WEST TEXAS AND 850/925MB FLOW INCREASES. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP WIND SPEEDS UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY
HELP DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL HELP CLOUD COVER
ORGANIZE AND INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO LOWER 60S AMID INCREASING SURFACE
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
OVER THE GENERAL AREA OF LAREDO WITH A STRONG RESIDUAL TERRAIN
INVERSION KEEPING A CAP ON DEEP CONVECTION/SHOWERS DESPITE
INCREASING SFC HEATING AND MOISTURE. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLIES
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP LIKELY
INTO HE MID TO LOWER 80S. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WINDOW OF SOME
FOG FORMATION AROUND PADRE ISLAND AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHEN WIND
SPEEDS SLACKEN IF A SEA BREEZE TYPE CURRENT IS ABLE TO FORM FROM THE
60 DEGREE WATER TO THE 80 DEGREE LAND. A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN RANCHLANDS MAINLY TO
PROVIDE SOME TIMING WIGGLE ROOM TO THE ADVANCING FRONT. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...AN ELONGATED AND
DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES WED
NIGHT AND THURS. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHEAR
OFF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH AND WILL CLOSE OFF NEAR THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TX LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURS MORNING. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TX THURS THROUGH SAT. ALTHOUGH THE CAA WILL NOT RESULT
IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...THE COMBINATION OF THE
SUSTAINED CAA AND THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OVER THE REGION DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE
HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA WHICH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND
PERSISTENT POPS ON INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE COASTAL
TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP SOUTH TX LATER THIS
WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL THEN BE
FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALI 500 MB LOW WHICH WILL THEN OPEN
UP AND MOVE EASTWARDS OVER TX SUN AND MON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD THE
CLD COVER AND RAIN CHCS IN PLACE ON INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
TEND TO HOLD BACK ANY SERIOUS WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRI. THE MODELS THEN START DIVERGING FROM SAT THROUGH MON
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING ONTO THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA
CALI PENINSULA MUCH LONGER THAN THE GFS. FOR TEMPS AND POPS THESE
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HOLDING ONTO THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES LONGER VERSUS THE ECMWF. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COLDER
GFS SOLUTION SINCE THE HIGHS ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF THIS WEEKEND
LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE PERSISTENT CLD COVER AND
RAIN CHCS.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONGER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT ARRIVING AFTER DARK
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WED
NIGHT/THURS MORNING AS THE NEXT MAJOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES. MSL
FIELDS AFTER THE FROPA ARE VERY TIGHTLY PACKED ON THURS AND
ACCORDINGLY EXPECT A VERY STRONG POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS FROM LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS.
THE PGF WILL THEN RELAX A LITTLE BIT FRI AND SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE WINDS AND SEAS TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ESPECIALLY FOR THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/54




000
FXUS64 KBRO 031630
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1030 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...LET THE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE. FOG CONTINUES BUT AT
MUCH IMPROVED VISIBILITIES OF 1-2 MILES. HINTS OF A SOUTH WINDS
ARE DEVELOPING AND THE GRADUAL INCREASE OF THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
FURTHER ALLOW FOR THE FOG TO LIFT. LOW LEVEL INVERSION ALTHOUGH
WEAKENS BUT DOES NOT BREAK COMPLETELY KEEPING AN OVERCAST SKY ALL
DAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS NEARLY AREA WIDE THIS MORNING
AMID NEARLY CALM WINDS. EXPECTING LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
FOR ATE LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. THOSE WINDS AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GRADUALLY HELP LIFT THE CIG TO AROUND 1000 FT
AND EVENTUALLY ABOUT 3000 FT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHETHER
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO FULL VFR OR REMAIN MVFR IS LOW CONFIDENCE. A
DETERIORATION BACK TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR IS FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AMID PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

RELEVANT FEATURES... AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE A SOUTHWESTERLY JET OFF
THE WESTERN CANADA COAST IS AMPLIFYING TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN US WHICH IS HELPING SHIFT EVERYTHING SLOWLY EASTWARD
DESPITE PRETTY STRONG JET ENERGY EAST OF THE PARENT TROUGH WITH
250MB SPEEDS INCREASING FROM 125 TO 165 KTS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THIS IS KEEPING A BROADLY DIVERGENT
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH COLD AIR DAMMED AGAINST THE
SIERRA MADRES FROM THE LAST FRONT BEING OVERRUN BY INCREASING SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLIES RESPONDING TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE RESULT IS
PLENTY OF THICK LOW OVERCAST AND FOG WITH COASTAL TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND SURFACE TROUGHING OVER SOUTH TEXAS LEADING TO
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY.

TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. DRYING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS SHOULD
HELP LOW CLOUDINESS CLEAR OUT AND LET TEMPERATURES RISE WARMER THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. WITH A STRONG SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST CLOUDS AND FOG MAY HOLD ON
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON ON THE ISLAND AND KEPT THAT IN
THE FORECAST. FURTHER INLAND SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

TONIGHT...THROUGH THE NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW EJECTS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE PARENT TROUGH INTO WEST TEXAS AND 850/925MB FLOW INCREASES. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP WIND SPEEDS UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY
HELP DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL HELP CLOUD COVER
ORGANIZE AND INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO LOWER 60S AMID INCREASING SURFACE
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
OVER THE GENERAL AREA OF LAREDO WITH A STRONG RESIDUAL TERRAIN
INVERSION KEEPING A CAP ON DEEP CONVECTION/SHOWERS DESPITE
INCREASING SFC HEATING AND MOISTURE. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLIES
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP LIKELY
INTO HE MID TO LOWER 80S. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WINDOW OF SOME
FOG FORMATION AROUND PADRE ISLAND AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHEN WIND
SPEEDS SLACKEN IF A SEA BREEZE TYPE CURRENT IS ABLE TO FORM FROM THE
60 DEGREE WATER TO THE 80 DEGREE LAND. A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN RANCHLANDS MAINLY TO
PROVIDE SOME TIMING WIGGLE ROOM TO THE ADVANCING FRONT. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...AN ELONGATED AND
DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES WED
NIGHT AND THURS. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHEAR
OFF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH AND WILL CLOSE OFF NEAR THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TX LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURS MORNING. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TX THURS THROUGH SAT. ALTHOUGH THE CAA WILL NOT RESULT
IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...THE COMBINATION OF THE
SUSTAINED CAA AND THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OVER THE REGION DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE
HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA WHICH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND
PERSISTENT POPS ON INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE COASTAL
TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP SOUTH TX LATER THIS
WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL THEN BE
FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALI 500 MB LOW WHICH WILL THEN OPEN
UP AND MOVE EASTWARDS OVER TX SUN AND MON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD THE
CLD COVER AND RAIN CHCS IN PLACE ON INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
TEND TO HOLD BACK ANY SERIOUS WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRI. THE MODELS THEN START DIVERGING FROM SAT THROUGH MON
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING ONTO THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA
CALI PENINSULA MUCH LONGER THAN THE GFS. FOR TEMPS AND POPS THESE
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HOLDING ONTO THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES LONGER VERSUS THE ECMWF. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COLDER
GFS SOLUTION SINCE THE HIGHS ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF THIS WEEKEND
LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE PERSISTENT CLD COVER AND
RAIN CHCS.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONGER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT ARRIVING AFTER DARK
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WED
NIGHT/THURS MORNING AS THE NEXT MAJOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES. MSL
FIELDS AFTER THE FROPA ARE VERY TIGHTLY PACKED ON THURS AND
ACCORDINGLY EXPECT A VERY STRONG POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS FROM LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS.
THE PGF WILL THEN RELAX A LITTLE BIT FRI AND SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE WINDS AND SEAS TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ESPECIALLY FOR THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/54





000
FXUS64 KBRO 031120
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
520 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS NEARLY AREA WIDE THIS MORNING
AMID NEARLY CALM WINDS. EXPECTING LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
FOR ATE LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. THOSE WINDS AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GRADUALLY HELP LIFT THE CIG TO AROUND 1000 FT
AND EVENTUALLY ABOUT 3000 FT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHETHER
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO FULL VFR OR REMAIN MVFR IS LOW CONFIDENCE. A
DETERIORATION BACK TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR IS FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AMID PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

RELEVANT FEATURES... AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE A SOUTHWESTERLY JET OFF
THE WESTERN CANADA COAST IS AMPLIFYING TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN US WHICH IS HELPING SHIFT EVERYTHING SLOWLY EASTWARD
DESPITE PRETTY STRONG JET ENERGY EAST OF THE PARENT TROUGH WITH
250MB SPEEDS INCREASING FROM 125 TO 165 KTS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THIS IS KEEPING A BROADLY DIVERGENT
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH COLD AIR DAMMED AGAINST THE
SIERRA MADRES FROM THE LAST FRONT BEING OVERRUN BY INCREASING SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLIES RESPONDING TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE RESULT IS
PLENTY OF THICK LOW OVERCAST AND FOG WITH COASTAL TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND SURFACE TROUGHING OVER SOUTH TEXAS LEADING TO
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY.

TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. DRYING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS SHOULD
HELP LOW CLOUDINESS CLEAR OUT AND LET TEMPERATURES RISE WARMER THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. WITH A STRONG SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST CLOUDS AND FOG MAY HOLD ON
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON ON THE ISLAND AND KEPT THAT IN
THE FORECAST. FURTHER INLAND SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

TONIGHT...THROUGH THE NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW EJECTS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE PARENT TROUGH INTO WEST TEXAS AND 850/925MB FLOW INCREASES. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP WIND SPEEDS UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY
HELP DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL HELP CLOUD COVER
ORGANIZE AND INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO LOWER 60S AMID INCREASING SURFACE
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
OVER THE GENERAL AREA OF LAREDO WITH A STRONG RESIDUAL TERRAIN
INVERSION KEEPING A CAP ON DEEP CONVECTION/SHOWERS DESPITE
INCREASING SFC HEATING AND MOISTURE. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLIES
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP LIKELY
INTO HE MID TO LOWER 80S. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WINDOW OF SOME
FOG FORMATION AROUND PADRE ISLAND AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHEN WIND
SPEEDS SLACKEN IF A SEA BREEZE TYPE CURRENT IS ABLE TO FORM FROM THE
60 DEGREE WATER TO THE 80 DEGREE LAND. A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN RANCHLANDS MAINLY TO
PROVIDE SOME TIMING WIGGLE ROOM TO THE ADVANCING FRONT. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...AN ELONGATED AND
DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES WED
NIGHT AND THURS. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHEAR
OFF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH AND WILL CLOSE OFF NEAR THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TX LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURS MORNING. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TX THURS THROUGH SAT. ALTHOUGH THE CAA WILL NOT RESULT
IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...THE COMBINATION OF THE
SUSTAINED CAA AND THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OVER THE REGION DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE
HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA WHICH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND
PERSISTENT POPS ON INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE COASTAL
TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP SOUTH TX LATER THIS
WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL THEN BE
FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALI 500 MB LOW WHICH WILL THEN OPEN
UP AND MOVE EASTWARDS OVER TX SUN AND MON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD THE
CLD COVER AND RAIN CHCS IN PLACE ON INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
TEND TO HOLD BACK ANY SERIOUS WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRI. THE MODELS THEN START DIVERGING FROM SAT THROUGH MON
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING ONTO THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA
CALI PENINSULA MUCH LONGER THAN THE GFS. FOR TEMPS AND POPS THESE
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HOLDING ONTO THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES LONGER VERSUS THE ECMWF. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COLDER
GFS SOLUTION SINCE THE HIGHS ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF THIS WEEKEND
LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE PERSISTENT CLD COVER AND
RAIN CHCS.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONGER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT ARRIVING AFTER DARK
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WED
NIGHT/THURS MORNING AS THE NEXT MAJOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES. MSL
FIELDS AFTER THE FROPA ARE VERY TIGHTLY PACKED ON THURS AND
ACCORDINGLY EXPECT A VERY STRONG POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS FROM LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS.
THE PGF WILL THEN RELAX A LITTLE BIT FRI AND SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE WINDS AND SEAS TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ESPECIALLY FOR THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ250-251-
     253>257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ130-132-
     135-150-155-170-175.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/61/67





000
FXUS64 KBRO 031120
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
520 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS NEARLY AREA WIDE THIS MORNING
AMID NEARLY CALM WINDS. EXPECTING LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
FOR ATE LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. THOSE WINDS AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GRADUALLY HELP LIFT THE CIG TO AROUND 1000 FT
AND EVENTUALLY ABOUT 3000 FT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHETHER
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO FULL VFR OR REMAIN MVFR IS LOW CONFIDENCE. A
DETERIORATION BACK TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR IS FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AMID PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

RELEVANT FEATURES... AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE A SOUTHWESTERLY JET OFF
THE WESTERN CANADA COAST IS AMPLIFYING TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN US WHICH IS HELPING SHIFT EVERYTHING SLOWLY EASTWARD
DESPITE PRETTY STRONG JET ENERGY EAST OF THE PARENT TROUGH WITH
250MB SPEEDS INCREASING FROM 125 TO 165 KTS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THIS IS KEEPING A BROADLY DIVERGENT
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH COLD AIR DAMMED AGAINST THE
SIERRA MADRES FROM THE LAST FRONT BEING OVERRUN BY INCREASING SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLIES RESPONDING TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE RESULT IS
PLENTY OF THICK LOW OVERCAST AND FOG WITH COASTAL TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND SURFACE TROUGHING OVER SOUTH TEXAS LEADING TO
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY.

TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. DRYING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS SHOULD
HELP LOW CLOUDINESS CLEAR OUT AND LET TEMPERATURES RISE WARMER THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. WITH A STRONG SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST CLOUDS AND FOG MAY HOLD ON
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON ON THE ISLAND AND KEPT THAT IN
THE FORECAST. FURTHER INLAND SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

TONIGHT...THROUGH THE NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW EJECTS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE PARENT TROUGH INTO WEST TEXAS AND 850/925MB FLOW INCREASES. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP WIND SPEEDS UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY
HELP DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL HELP CLOUD COVER
ORGANIZE AND INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO LOWER 60S AMID INCREASING SURFACE
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
OVER THE GENERAL AREA OF LAREDO WITH A STRONG RESIDUAL TERRAIN
INVERSION KEEPING A CAP ON DEEP CONVECTION/SHOWERS DESPITE
INCREASING SFC HEATING AND MOISTURE. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLIES
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP LIKELY
INTO HE MID TO LOWER 80S. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WINDOW OF SOME
FOG FORMATION AROUND PADRE ISLAND AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHEN WIND
SPEEDS SLACKEN IF A SEA BREEZE TYPE CURRENT IS ABLE TO FORM FROM THE
60 DEGREE WATER TO THE 80 DEGREE LAND. A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN RANCHLANDS MAINLY TO
PROVIDE SOME TIMING WIGGLE ROOM TO THE ADVANCING FRONT. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...AN ELONGATED AND
DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES WED
NIGHT AND THURS. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHEAR
OFF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH AND WILL CLOSE OFF NEAR THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TX LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURS MORNING. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TX THURS THROUGH SAT. ALTHOUGH THE CAA WILL NOT RESULT
IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...THE COMBINATION OF THE
SUSTAINED CAA AND THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OVER THE REGION DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE
HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA WHICH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND
PERSISTENT POPS ON INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE COASTAL
TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP SOUTH TX LATER THIS
WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL THEN BE
FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALI 500 MB LOW WHICH WILL THEN OPEN
UP AND MOVE EASTWARDS OVER TX SUN AND MON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD THE
CLD COVER AND RAIN CHCS IN PLACE ON INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
TEND TO HOLD BACK ANY SERIOUS WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRI. THE MODELS THEN START DIVERGING FROM SAT THROUGH MON
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING ONTO THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA
CALI PENINSULA MUCH LONGER THAN THE GFS. FOR TEMPS AND POPS THESE
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HOLDING ONTO THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES LONGER VERSUS THE ECMWF. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COLDER
GFS SOLUTION SINCE THE HIGHS ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF THIS WEEKEND
LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE PERSISTENT CLD COVER AND
RAIN CHCS.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONGER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT ARRIVING AFTER DARK
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WED
NIGHT/THURS MORNING AS THE NEXT MAJOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES. MSL
FIELDS AFTER THE FROPA ARE VERY TIGHTLY PACKED ON THURS AND
ACCORDINGLY EXPECT A VERY STRONG POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS FROM LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS.
THE PGF WILL THEN RELAX A LITTLE BIT FRI AND SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE WINDS AND SEAS TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ESPECIALLY FOR THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ250-251-
     253>257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ130-132-
     135-150-155-170-175.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/61/67




000
FXUS64 KBRO 031023
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
423 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

RELEVANT FEATURES... AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE A SOUTHWESTERLY JET OFF
THE WESTERN CANADA COAST IS AMPLIFYING TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN US WHICH IS HELPING SHIFT EVERYTHING SLOWLY EASTWARD
DESPITE PRETTY STRONG JET ENERGY EAST OF THE PARENT TROUGH WITH
250MB SPEEDS INCREASING FROM 125 TO 165 KTS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THIS IS KEEPING A BROADLY DIVERGENT
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH COLD AIR DAMMED AGAINST THE
SIERRA MADRES FROM THE LAST FRONT BEING OVERRUN BY INCREASING SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLIES RESPONDING TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE RESULT IS
PLENTY OF THICK LOW OVERCAST AND FOG WITH COASTAL TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND SURFACE TROUGHING OVER SOUTH TEXAS LEADING TO
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY.

TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. DRYING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS SHOULD
HELP LOW CLOUDINESS CLEAR OUT AND LET TEMPERATURES RISE WARMER THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. WITH A STRONG SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST CLOUDS AND FOG MAY HOLD ON
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON ON THE ISLAND AND KEPT THAT IN
THE FORECAST. FURTHER INLAND SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

TONIGHT...THROUGH THE NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW EJECTS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE PARENT TROUGH INTO WEST TEXAS AND 850/925MB FLOW INCREASES. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP WIND SPEEDS UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY
HELP DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL HELP CLOUD COVER
ORGANIZE AND INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO LOWER 60S AMID INCREASING SURFACE
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
OVER THE GENERAL AREA OF LAREDO WITH A STRONG RESIDUAL TERRAIN
INVERSION KEEPING A CAP ON DEEP CONVECTION/SHOWERS DESPITE
INCREASING SFC HEATING AND MOISTURE. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLIES
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP LIKELY
INTO HE MID TO LOWER 80S. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WINDOW OF SOME
FOG FORMATION AROUND PADRE ISLAND AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHEN WIND
SPEEDS SLACKEN IF A SEA BREEZE TYPE CURRENT IS ABLE TO FORM FROM THE
60 DEGREE WATER TO THE 80 DEGREE LAND. A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN RANCHLANDS MAINLY TO
PROVIDE SOME TIMING WIGGLE ROOM TO THE ADVANCING FRONT. /68-JGG/

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...AN ELONGATED AND
DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES WED
NIGHT AND THURS. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHEAR
OFF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH AND WILL CLOSE OFF NEAR THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TX LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURS MORNING. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TX THURS THROUGH SAT. ALTHOUGH THE CAA WILL NOT RESULT
IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...THE COMBINATION OF THE
SUSTAINED CAA AND THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OVER THE REGION DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE
HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA WHICH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND
PERSISTENT POPS ON INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE COASTAL
TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP SOUTH TX LATER THIS
WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL THEN BE
FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALI 500 MB LOW WHICH WILL THEN OPEN
UP AND MOVE EASTWARDS OVER TX SUN AND MON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD THE
CLD COVER AND RAIN CHCS IN PLACE ON INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
TEND TO HOLD BACK ANY SERIOUS WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRI. THE MODELS THEN START DIVERGING FROM SAT THROUGH MON
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING ONTO THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA
CALI PENINSULA MUCH LONGER THAN THE GFS. FOR TEMPS AND POPS THESE
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HOLDING ONTO THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES LONGER VERSUS THE ECMWF. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COLDER
GFS SOLUTION SINCE THE HIGHS ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF THIS WEEKEND
LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE PERSISTENT CLD COVER AND
RAIN CHCS.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONGER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT ARRIVING AFTER DARK
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WED
NIGHT/THURS MORNING AS THE NEXT MAJOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES. MSL
FIELDS AFTER THE FROPA ARE VERY TIGHTLY PACKED ON THURS AND
ACCORDINGLY EXPECT A VERY STRONG POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS FROM LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS.
THE PGF WILL THEN RELAX A LITTLE BIT FRI AND SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE WINDS AND SEAS TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ESPECIALLY FOR THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  67  80  42 /  20  10  10  50
BROWNSVILLE          76  66  84  39 /  20  10  10  50
HARLINGEN            78  68  86  39 /  20  10  10  50
MCALLEN              80  67  87  38 /  20  10  10  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      80  64  88  40 /  20  10  10  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   69  66  75  46 /  20  10  10  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ250-251-
     253>257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ130-132-
     135-150-155-170-175.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM...60
GRAHICAST/UPPER AIR...67





000
FXUS64 KBRO 030524
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1124 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND VERY LOW CEILINGS WILL
MAINTAIN LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS
WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO VEER AND
INCREASE WINDS ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL SCOUR AWAY THE FOG AND
CAUSE CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR LEVELS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WINDS
WILL ALSO BRING LESS CLOUDINESS THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE
TAFS. TOMORROW NIGHT...MODERATE WINDS WITH BREEZY GUSTS WILL OCCUR
AS CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS. COOLER...BUT MOIST...ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY PRODUCE VERY LIGHT FOG AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IN-SITU WEBCAMS SUGGEST
THAT DENSE FOG IS MOVING FARTHER INLAND THIS EVENING. THEREFORE
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOW ALSO IN EFFECT FOR INLAND CAMERON
..INLAND WILLACY...AND HIDALGO COUNTY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY
MORNING. NO OTHER FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS DUE TO DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT
OF THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE WILL BE HOW OFTEN VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS CHANGE DUE TO THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. TOMORROW...SURFACE
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL SCOUR THE FOG AWAY...
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC/NEAR
SFC FLOW UNDERNEATH SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO
OVERCAST SKIES TODAY. CLOUDS HAVE NOT BUDGED TODAY AND IN FACT DRAPE
MOST OF THE STATE OF TEXAS CURRENTLY. WITH NO INSOLATION REACHING
THE SURFACE AND VIRTUALLY NO MIXING...VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BE
RESTRICTED AS WELL WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO UNDERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE RANCHLANDS WHERE LOWER
50S RESIDE...MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEY.

AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TONIGHT. DENSE FOG MAY RESIDE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
COASTAL SECTIONS WITH A LIGHT EAST FLOW THERE. OVER LAND...A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTWEST SFC WIND WILL PREVAIL WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE DENSE
FOG AT THE COAST. WITH NO RADIATIONAL FOG DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 2 MILES SHOULD BE COMMON. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CURRENTLY AT THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS WILL BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS CONDITIONS DO NOT CHANGE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE EXPECT LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRES WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY WHICH
WILL REPLACE RIDGING NOSING INTO THE AREA AND HELP LIFT THE
LINGERING COASTAL TROUGHING OUT OF THE AREA. SFC WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. THIS SHOULD HELP
MIX SOME OF THE CLOUDS OUT WITH PEAKS OF THE SUN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE WHICH SHOULD HELP
MIX DOWN DRIER AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 80S OUT WEST
AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. CLOUDY SKIES RETURN EARLY BUT WITH
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS BELIEVE FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGHLY ADVERTISED MAJOR COLD
FRONT STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHARP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF THE U.S WITH A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST TO SURGE ARCTIC AIR THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND INTO TEXAS. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO SEE THE FRONT
SHORTLY BEFORE OR AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT
CLEARING THE LOWER VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH
WITH COLD AIR BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION THUSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LITTLE RELIEF EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY. THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM INITIALLY PHASE
TOGETHER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE ARCTIC AIR TO SURGE SOUTH. THE
NORTHERN BRANCH THEN LIFTS OUT NE WHILE ENERGY REMAINS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND OFF BAJA CA WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. ITS
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TAKE WILL DETERMINE OUR RAIN CHANCES
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE POPS WITH
GUIDANCE HOLDING ONTO GOOD TO LIKELY CHANCES BUT VERY LOW QPF. A
BLEND OF THE 12Z MODEL PACKAGE AND THE INHERITED FORECAST KEEP THE
BEST CHANCES IN THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE BIG PLUNGE/FALL OF 30-45 DEGREES TAKES
PLACE ALL WITHIN A 9 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE A FACTOR DROPPING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY SUNRISE...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH...AND NOT
RECOVERING UNTIL LATER FRIDAY. MODELS ARE DOING THEIR DARNEST
KEEPING TEMPERATURES RATHER LOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND EVEN
SUNDAY WITH NO REAL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EXPECTED. FUTURE
FORECAST MAY HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME MORE IF THE COLD AIR
DOES NOT MODIFY...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT TOOK PLACE THIS PAST WEEKEND.

TOO EARLY AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF ANY FREEZING PRECIPIATION DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND ATMOSPHERE INDICATES AN 8000 FOOT DEEP SATURATED LAYER.
THE LOW QPF SIGNAL WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE AT BEST BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP LIQUID UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE APPOINTED
TIME.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH
VISIBILITIES AT A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AND RAPIDLY CHANGING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING.
THIS SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BY MID MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN A MAJOR COLD FRONT SURGES INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS ADVERSE THURSDAY AND PROBABLY
THROUGH FRIDAY. GALE CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS MODELS ARE NOW
INDICATING SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE. IN ANY
CASE...GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE OBTAINED WITH SEAS RAPIDLY
EXCEEDING 10 FEET BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. COASTAL TROUGHING SETS UP
LATER THU AND PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY KEEPING THE GULF AND
NEARBY LAGUNA MADRE UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW AT MODERATE TO STRONG
LEVELS WITH PERIODIC SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WARRANTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  53  76  66  77 /  20  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          53  77  67  81 /  20  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            52  79  66  83 /  20  20  10  10
MCALLEN              50  81  66  84 /  20  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      50  81  65  85 /  20  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   57  72  65  72 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ251-253>257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

66/60





000
FXUS64 KBRO 030524
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1124 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND VERY LOW CEILINGS WILL
MAINTAIN LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS
WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO VEER AND
INCREASE WINDS ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL SCOUR AWAY THE FOG AND
CAUSE CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR LEVELS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WINDS
WILL ALSO BRING LESS CLOUDINESS THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE
TAFS. TOMORROW NIGHT...MODERATE WINDS WITH BREEZY GUSTS WILL OCCUR
AS CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS. COOLER...BUT MOIST...ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY PRODUCE VERY LIGHT FOG AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IN-SITU WEBCAMS SUGGEST
THAT DENSE FOG IS MOVING FARTHER INLAND THIS EVENING. THEREFORE
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOW ALSO IN EFFECT FOR INLAND CAMERON
..INLAND WILLACY...AND HIDALGO COUNTY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY
MORNING. NO OTHER FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS DUE TO DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT
OF THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE WILL BE HOW OFTEN VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS CHANGE DUE TO THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. TOMORROW...SURFACE
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL SCOUR THE FOG AWAY...
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC/NEAR
SFC FLOW UNDERNEATH SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO
OVERCAST SKIES TODAY. CLOUDS HAVE NOT BUDGED TODAY AND IN FACT DRAPE
MOST OF THE STATE OF TEXAS CURRENTLY. WITH NO INSOLATION REACHING
THE SURFACE AND VIRTUALLY NO MIXING...VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BE
RESTRICTED AS WELL WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO UNDERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE RANCHLANDS WHERE LOWER
50S RESIDE...MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEY.

AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TONIGHT. DENSE FOG MAY RESIDE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
COASTAL SECTIONS WITH A LIGHT EAST FLOW THERE. OVER LAND...A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTWEST SFC WIND WILL PREVAIL WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE DENSE
FOG AT THE COAST. WITH NO RADIATIONAL FOG DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 2 MILES SHOULD BE COMMON. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CURRENTLY AT THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS WILL BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS CONDITIONS DO NOT CHANGE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE EXPECT LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRES WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY WHICH
WILL REPLACE RIDGING NOSING INTO THE AREA AND HELP LIFT THE
LINGERING COASTAL TROUGHING OUT OF THE AREA. SFC WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. THIS SHOULD HELP
MIX SOME OF THE CLOUDS OUT WITH PEAKS OF THE SUN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE WHICH SHOULD HELP
MIX DOWN DRIER AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 80S OUT WEST
AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. CLOUDY SKIES RETURN EARLY BUT WITH
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS BELIEVE FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGHLY ADVERTISED MAJOR COLD
FRONT STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHARP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF THE U.S WITH A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST TO SURGE ARCTIC AIR THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND INTO TEXAS. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO SEE THE FRONT
SHORTLY BEFORE OR AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT
CLEARING THE LOWER VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH
WITH COLD AIR BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION THUSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LITTLE RELIEF EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY. THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM INITIALLY PHASE
TOGETHER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE ARCTIC AIR TO SURGE SOUTH. THE
NORTHERN BRANCH THEN LIFTS OUT NE WHILE ENERGY REMAINS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND OFF BAJA CA WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. ITS
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TAKE WILL DETERMINE OUR RAIN CHANCES
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE POPS WITH
GUIDANCE HOLDING ONTO GOOD TO LIKELY CHANCES BUT VERY LOW QPF. A
BLEND OF THE 12Z MODEL PACKAGE AND THE INHERITED FORECAST KEEP THE
BEST CHANCES IN THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE BIG PLUNGE/FALL OF 30-45 DEGREES TAKES
PLACE ALL WITHIN A 9 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE A FACTOR DROPPING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY SUNRISE...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH...AND NOT
RECOVERING UNTIL LATER FRIDAY. MODELS ARE DOING THEIR DARNEST
KEEPING TEMPERATURES RATHER LOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND EVEN
SUNDAY WITH NO REAL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EXPECTED. FUTURE
FORECAST MAY HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME MORE IF THE COLD AIR
DOES NOT MODIFY...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT TOOK PLACE THIS PAST WEEKEND.

TOO EARLY AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF ANY FREEZING PRECIPIATION DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND ATMOSPHERE INDICATES AN 8000 FOOT DEEP SATURATED LAYER.
THE LOW QPF SIGNAL WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE AT BEST BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP LIQUID UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE APPOINTED
TIME.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH
VISIBILITIES AT A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AND RAPIDLY CHANGING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING.
THIS SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BY MID MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN A MAJOR COLD FRONT SURGES INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS ADVERSE THURSDAY AND PROBABLY
THROUGH FRIDAY. GALE CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS MODELS ARE NOW
INDICATING SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE. IN ANY
CASE...GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE OBTAINED WITH SEAS RAPIDLY
EXCEEDING 10 FEET BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. COASTAL TROUGHING SETS UP
LATER THU AND PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY KEEPING THE GULF AND
NEARBY LAGUNA MADRE UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW AT MODERATE TO STRONG
LEVELS WITH PERIODIC SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WARRANTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  53  76  66  77 /  20  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          53  77  67  81 /  20  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            52  79  66  83 /  20  20  10  10
MCALLEN              50  81  66  84 /  20  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      50  81  65  85 /  20  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   57  72  65  72 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ251-253>257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

66/60




000
FXUS64 KBRO 030524
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1124 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND VERY LOW CEILINGS WILL
MAINTAIN LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS
WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO VEER AND
INCREASE WINDS ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL SCOUR AWAY THE FOG AND
CAUSE CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR LEVELS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WINDS
WILL ALSO BRING LESS CLOUDINESS THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE
TAFS. TOMORROW NIGHT...MODERATE WINDS WITH BREEZY GUSTS WILL OCCUR
AS CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS. COOLER...BUT MOIST...ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY PRODUCE VERY LIGHT FOG AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IN-SITU WEBCAMS SUGGEST
THAT DENSE FOG IS MOVING FARTHER INLAND THIS EVENING. THEREFORE
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOW ALSO IN EFFECT FOR INLAND CAMERON
..INLAND WILLACY...AND HIDALGO COUNTY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY
MORNING. NO OTHER FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS DUE TO DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT
OF THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE WILL BE HOW OFTEN VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS CHANGE DUE TO THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. TOMORROW...SURFACE
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL SCOUR THE FOG AWAY...
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC/NEAR
SFC FLOW UNDERNEATH SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO
OVERCAST SKIES TODAY. CLOUDS HAVE NOT BUDGED TODAY AND IN FACT DRAPE
MOST OF THE STATE OF TEXAS CURRENTLY. WITH NO INSOLATION REACHING
THE SURFACE AND VIRTUALLY NO MIXING...VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BE
RESTRICTED AS WELL WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO UNDERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE RANCHLANDS WHERE LOWER
50S RESIDE...MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEY.

AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TONIGHT. DENSE FOG MAY RESIDE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
COASTAL SECTIONS WITH A LIGHT EAST FLOW THERE. OVER LAND...A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTWEST SFC WIND WILL PREVAIL WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE DENSE
FOG AT THE COAST. WITH NO RADIATIONAL FOG DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 2 MILES SHOULD BE COMMON. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CURRENTLY AT THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS WILL BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS CONDITIONS DO NOT CHANGE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE EXPECT LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRES WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY WHICH
WILL REPLACE RIDGING NOSING INTO THE AREA AND HELP LIFT THE
LINGERING COASTAL TROUGHING OUT OF THE AREA. SFC WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. THIS SHOULD HELP
MIX SOME OF THE CLOUDS OUT WITH PEAKS OF THE SUN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE WHICH SHOULD HELP
MIX DOWN DRIER AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 80S OUT WEST
AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. CLOUDY SKIES RETURN EARLY BUT WITH
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS BELIEVE FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGHLY ADVERTISED MAJOR COLD
FRONT STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHARP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF THE U.S WITH A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST TO SURGE ARCTIC AIR THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND INTO TEXAS. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO SEE THE FRONT
SHORTLY BEFORE OR AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT
CLEARING THE LOWER VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH
WITH COLD AIR BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION THUSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LITTLE RELIEF EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY. THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM INITIALLY PHASE
TOGETHER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE ARCTIC AIR TO SURGE SOUTH. THE
NORTHERN BRANCH THEN LIFTS OUT NE WHILE ENERGY REMAINS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND OFF BAJA CA WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. ITS
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TAKE WILL DETERMINE OUR RAIN CHANCES
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE POPS WITH
GUIDANCE HOLDING ONTO GOOD TO LIKELY CHANCES BUT VERY LOW QPF. A
BLEND OF THE 12Z MODEL PACKAGE AND THE INHERITED FORECAST KEEP THE
BEST CHANCES IN THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE BIG PLUNGE/FALL OF 30-45 DEGREES TAKES
PLACE ALL WITHIN A 9 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE A FACTOR DROPPING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY SUNRISE...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH...AND NOT
RECOVERING UNTIL LATER FRIDAY. MODELS ARE DOING THEIR DARNEST
KEEPING TEMPERATURES RATHER LOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND EVEN
SUNDAY WITH NO REAL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EXPECTED. FUTURE
FORECAST MAY HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME MORE IF THE COLD AIR
DOES NOT MODIFY...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT TOOK PLACE THIS PAST WEEKEND.

TOO EARLY AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF ANY FREEZING PRECIPIATION DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND ATMOSPHERE INDICATES AN 8000 FOOT DEEP SATURATED LAYER.
THE LOW QPF SIGNAL WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE AT BEST BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP LIQUID UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE APPOINTED
TIME.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH
VISIBILITIES AT A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AND RAPIDLY CHANGING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING.
THIS SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BY MID MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN A MAJOR COLD FRONT SURGES INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS ADVERSE THURSDAY AND PROBABLY
THROUGH FRIDAY. GALE CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS MODELS ARE NOW
INDICATING SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE. IN ANY
CASE...GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE OBTAINED WITH SEAS RAPIDLY
EXCEEDING 10 FEET BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. COASTAL TROUGHING SETS UP
LATER THU AND PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY KEEPING THE GULF AND
NEARBY LAGUNA MADRE UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW AT MODERATE TO STRONG
LEVELS WITH PERIODIC SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WARRANTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  53  76  66  77 /  20  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          53  77  67  81 /  20  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            52  79  66  83 /  20  20  10  10
MCALLEN              50  81  66  84 /  20  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      50  81  65  85 /  20  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   57  72  65  72 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ251-253>257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

66/60




000
FXUS64 KBRO 022341 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
541 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IN-SITU WEBCAMS SUGGEST
THAT DENSE FOG IS MOVING FARTHER INLAND THIS EVENING. THEREFORE
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOW ALSO IN EFFECT FOR INLAND CAMERON
...INLAND WILLACY...AND HIDALGO COUNTY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY
MORNING. NO OTHER FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS DUE TO DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT
OF THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE WILL BE HOW OFTEN VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS CHANGE DUE TO THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. TOMORROW...SURFACE
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL SCOUR THE FOG AWAY...
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC/NEAR
SFC FLOW UNDERNEATH SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO
OVERCAST SKIES TODAY. CLOUDS HAVE NOT BUDGED TODAY AND IN FACT DRAPE
MOST OF THE STATE OF TEXAS CURRENTLY. WITH NO INSOLATION REACHING
THE SURFACE AND VIRTUALLY NO MIXING...VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BE
RESTRICTED AS WELL WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO UNDERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE RANCHLANDS WHERE LOWER
50S RESIDE...MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEY.

AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TONIGHT. DENSE FOG MAY RESIDE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
COASTAL SECTIONS WITH A LIGHT EAST FLOW THERE. OVER LAND...A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTWEST SFC WIND WILL PREVAIL WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE DENSE
FOG AT THE COAST. WITH NO RADIATIONAL FOG DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 2 MILES SHOULD BE COMMON. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CURRENTLY AT THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS WILL BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS CONDITIONS DO NOT CHANGE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE EXPECT LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRES WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY WHICH
WILL REPLACE RIDGING NOSING INTO THE AREA AND HELP LIFT THE
LINGERING COASTAL TROUGHING OUT OF THE AREA. SFC WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. THIS SHOULD HELP
MIX SOME OF THE CLOUDS OUT WITH PEAKS OF THE SUN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE WHICH SHOULD HELP
MIX DOWN DRIER AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 80S OUT WEST
AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. CLOUDY SKIES RETURN EARLY BUT WITH
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS BELIEVE FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGHLY ADVERTISED MAJOR COLD
FRONT STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHARP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF THE U.S WITH A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST TO SURGE ARCTIC AIR THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND INTO TEXAS. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO SEE THE FRONT
SHORTLY BEFORE OR AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT
CLEARING THE LOWER VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH
WITH COLD AIR BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION THUSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LITTLE RELIEF EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY. THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM INITIALLY PHASE
TOGETHER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE ARCTIC AIR TO SURGE SOUTH. THE
NORTHERN BRANCH THEN LIFTS OUT NE WHILE ENERGY REMAINS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND OFF BAJA CA WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. ITS
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TAKE WILL DETERMINE OUR RAIN CHANCES
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE POPS WITH
GUIDANCE HOLDING ONTO GOOD TO LIKELY CHANCES BUT VERY LOW QPF. A
BLEND OF THE 12Z MODEL PACKAGE AND THE INHERITED FORECAST KEEP THE
BEST CHANCES IN THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE BIG PLUNGE/FALL OF 30-45 DEGREES TAKES
PLACE ALL WITHIN A 9 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE A FACTOR DROPPING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY SUNRISE...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH...AND NOT
RECOVERING UNTIL LATER FRIDAY. MODELS ARE DOING THEIR DARNEST
KEEPING TEMPERATURES RATHER LOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND EVEN
SUNDAY WITH NO REAL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EXPECTED. FUTURE
FORECAST MAY HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME MORE IF THE COLD AIR
DOES NOT MODIFY...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT TOOK PLACE THIS PAST WEEKEND.

TOO EARLY AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF ANY FREEZING PRECIPIATION DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND ATMOSPHERE INDICATES AN 8000 FOOT DEEP SATURATED LAYER.
THE LOW QPF SIGNAL WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE AT BEST BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP LIQUID UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE APPOINTED
TIME.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH
VISIBILITIES AT A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AND RAPIDLY CHANGING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING.
THIS SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BY MID MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN A MAJOR COLD FRONT SURGES INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS ADVERSE THURSDAY AND PROBABLY
THROUGH FRIDAY. GALE CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS MODELS ARE NOW
INDICATING SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE. IN ANY
CASE...GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE OBTAINED WITH SEAS RAPIDLY
EXCEEDING 10 FEET BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. COASTAL TROUGHING SETS UP
LATER THU AND PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY KEEPING THE GULF AND
NEARBY LAGUNA MADRE UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW AT MODERATE TO STRONG
LEVELS WITH PERIODIC SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WARRANTED.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ251-253>257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV




000
FXUS64 KBRO 022341 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
541 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IN-SITU WEBCAMS SUGGEST
THAT DENSE FOG IS MOVING FARTHER INLAND THIS EVENING. THEREFORE
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOW ALSO IN EFFECT FOR INLAND CAMERON
...INLAND WILLACY...AND HIDALGO COUNTY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY
MORNING. NO OTHER FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS DUE TO DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT
OF THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE WILL BE HOW OFTEN VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS CHANGE DUE TO THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. TOMORROW...SURFACE
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL SCOUR THE FOG AWAY...
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC/NEAR
SFC FLOW UNDERNEATH SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO
OVERCAST SKIES TODAY. CLOUDS HAVE NOT BUDGED TODAY AND IN FACT DRAPE
MOST OF THE STATE OF TEXAS CURRENTLY. WITH NO INSOLATION REACHING
THE SURFACE AND VIRTUALLY NO MIXING...VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BE
RESTRICTED AS WELL WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO UNDERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE RANCHLANDS WHERE LOWER
50S RESIDE...MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEY.

AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TONIGHT. DENSE FOG MAY RESIDE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
COASTAL SECTIONS WITH A LIGHT EAST FLOW THERE. OVER LAND...A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTWEST SFC WIND WILL PREVAIL WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE DENSE
FOG AT THE COAST. WITH NO RADIATIONAL FOG DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 2 MILES SHOULD BE COMMON. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CURRENTLY AT THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS WILL BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS CONDITIONS DO NOT CHANGE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE EXPECT LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRES WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY WHICH
WILL REPLACE RIDGING NOSING INTO THE AREA AND HELP LIFT THE
LINGERING COASTAL TROUGHING OUT OF THE AREA. SFC WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. THIS SHOULD HELP
MIX SOME OF THE CLOUDS OUT WITH PEAKS OF THE SUN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE WHICH SHOULD HELP
MIX DOWN DRIER AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 80S OUT WEST
AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. CLOUDY SKIES RETURN EARLY BUT WITH
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS BELIEVE FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGHLY ADVERTISED MAJOR COLD
FRONT STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHARP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF THE U.S WITH A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST TO SURGE ARCTIC AIR THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND INTO TEXAS. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO SEE THE FRONT
SHORTLY BEFORE OR AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT
CLEARING THE LOWER VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH
WITH COLD AIR BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION THUSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LITTLE RELIEF EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY. THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM INITIALLY PHASE
TOGETHER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE ARCTIC AIR TO SURGE SOUTH. THE
NORTHERN BRANCH THEN LIFTS OUT NE WHILE ENERGY REMAINS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND OFF BAJA CA WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. ITS
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TAKE WILL DETERMINE OUR RAIN CHANCES
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE POPS WITH
GUIDANCE HOLDING ONTO GOOD TO LIKELY CHANCES BUT VERY LOW QPF. A
BLEND OF THE 12Z MODEL PACKAGE AND THE INHERITED FORECAST KEEP THE
BEST CHANCES IN THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE BIG PLUNGE/FALL OF 30-45 DEGREES TAKES
PLACE ALL WITHIN A 9 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE A FACTOR DROPPING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY SUNRISE...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH...AND NOT
RECOVERING UNTIL LATER FRIDAY. MODELS ARE DOING THEIR DARNEST
KEEPING TEMPERATURES RATHER LOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND EVEN
SUNDAY WITH NO REAL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EXPECTED. FUTURE
FORECAST MAY HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME MORE IF THE COLD AIR
DOES NOT MODIFY...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT TOOK PLACE THIS PAST WEEKEND.

TOO EARLY AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF ANY FREEZING PRECIPIATION DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND ATMOSPHERE INDICATES AN 8000 FOOT DEEP SATURATED LAYER.
THE LOW QPF SIGNAL WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE AT BEST BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP LIQUID UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE APPOINTED
TIME.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH
VISIBILITIES AT A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AND RAPIDLY CHANGING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING.
THIS SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BY MID MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN A MAJOR COLD FRONT SURGES INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS ADVERSE THURSDAY AND PROBABLY
THROUGH FRIDAY. GALE CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS MODELS ARE NOW
INDICATING SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE. IN ANY
CASE...GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE OBTAINED WITH SEAS RAPIDLY
EXCEEDING 10 FEET BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. COASTAL TROUGHING SETS UP
LATER THU AND PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY KEEPING THE GULF AND
NEARBY LAGUNA MADRE UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW AT MODERATE TO STRONG
LEVELS WITH PERIODIC SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WARRANTED.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ251-253>257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KBRO 022341 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
541 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IN-SITU WEBCAMS SUGGEST
THAT DENSE FOG IS MOVING FARTHER INLAND THIS EVENING. THEREFORE
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOW ALSO IN EFFECT FOR INLAND CAMERON
...INLAND WILLACY...AND HIDALGO COUNTY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY
MORNING. NO OTHER FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS DUE TO DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT
OF THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE WILL BE HOW OFTEN VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS CHANGE DUE TO THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. TOMORROW...SURFACE
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL SCOUR THE FOG AWAY...
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC/NEAR
SFC FLOW UNDERNEATH SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO
OVERCAST SKIES TODAY. CLOUDS HAVE NOT BUDGED TODAY AND IN FACT DRAPE
MOST OF THE STATE OF TEXAS CURRENTLY. WITH NO INSOLATION REACHING
THE SURFACE AND VIRTUALLY NO MIXING...VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BE
RESTRICTED AS WELL WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO UNDERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE RANCHLANDS WHERE LOWER
50S RESIDE...MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEY.

AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TONIGHT. DENSE FOG MAY RESIDE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
COASTAL SECTIONS WITH A LIGHT EAST FLOW THERE. OVER LAND...A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTWEST SFC WIND WILL PREVAIL WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE DENSE
FOG AT THE COAST. WITH NO RADIATIONAL FOG DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 2 MILES SHOULD BE COMMON. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CURRENTLY AT THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS WILL BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS CONDITIONS DO NOT CHANGE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE EXPECT LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRES WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY WHICH
WILL REPLACE RIDGING NOSING INTO THE AREA AND HELP LIFT THE
LINGERING COASTAL TROUGHING OUT OF THE AREA. SFC WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. THIS SHOULD HELP
MIX SOME OF THE CLOUDS OUT WITH PEAKS OF THE SUN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE WHICH SHOULD HELP
MIX DOWN DRIER AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 80S OUT WEST
AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. CLOUDY SKIES RETURN EARLY BUT WITH
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS BELIEVE FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGHLY ADVERTISED MAJOR COLD
FRONT STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHARP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF THE U.S WITH A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST TO SURGE ARCTIC AIR THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND INTO TEXAS. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO SEE THE FRONT
SHORTLY BEFORE OR AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT
CLEARING THE LOWER VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH
WITH COLD AIR BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION THUSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LITTLE RELIEF EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY. THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM INITIALLY PHASE
TOGETHER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE ARCTIC AIR TO SURGE SOUTH. THE
NORTHERN BRANCH THEN LIFTS OUT NE WHILE ENERGY REMAINS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND OFF BAJA CA WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. ITS
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TAKE WILL DETERMINE OUR RAIN CHANCES
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE POPS WITH
GUIDANCE HOLDING ONTO GOOD TO LIKELY CHANCES BUT VERY LOW QPF. A
BLEND OF THE 12Z MODEL PACKAGE AND THE INHERITED FORECAST KEEP THE
BEST CHANCES IN THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE BIG PLUNGE/FALL OF 30-45 DEGREES TAKES
PLACE ALL WITHIN A 9 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE A FACTOR DROPPING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY SUNRISE...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH...AND NOT
RECOVERING UNTIL LATER FRIDAY. MODELS ARE DOING THEIR DARNEST
KEEPING TEMPERATURES RATHER LOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND EVEN
SUNDAY WITH NO REAL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EXPECTED. FUTURE
FORECAST MAY HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME MORE IF THE COLD AIR
DOES NOT MODIFY...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT TOOK PLACE THIS PAST WEEKEND.

TOO EARLY AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF ANY FREEZING PRECIPIATION DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND ATMOSPHERE INDICATES AN 8000 FOOT DEEP SATURATED LAYER.
THE LOW QPF SIGNAL WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE AT BEST BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP LIQUID UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE APPOINTED
TIME.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH
VISIBILITIES AT A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AND RAPIDLY CHANGING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING.
THIS SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BY MID MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN A MAJOR COLD FRONT SURGES INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS ADVERSE THURSDAY AND PROBABLY
THROUGH FRIDAY. GALE CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS MODELS ARE NOW
INDICATING SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE. IN ANY
CASE...GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE OBTAINED WITH SEAS RAPIDLY
EXCEEDING 10 FEET BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. COASTAL TROUGHING SETS UP
LATER THU AND PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY KEEPING THE GULF AND
NEARBY LAGUNA MADRE UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW AT MODERATE TO STRONG
LEVELS WITH PERIODIC SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WARRANTED.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ251-253>257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV




000
FXUS64 KBRO 022341 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
541 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IN-SITU WEBCAMS SUGGEST
THAT DENSE FOG IS MOVING FARTHER INLAND THIS EVENING. THEREFORE
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOW ALSO IN EFFECT FOR INLAND CAMERON
...INLAND WILLACY...AND HIDALGO COUNTY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY
MORNING. NO OTHER FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS DUE TO DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT
OF THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE WILL BE HOW OFTEN VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS CHANGE DUE TO THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. TOMORROW...SURFACE
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL SCOUR THE FOG AWAY...
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC/NEAR
SFC FLOW UNDERNEATH SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO
OVERCAST SKIES TODAY. CLOUDS HAVE NOT BUDGED TODAY AND IN FACT DRAPE
MOST OF THE STATE OF TEXAS CURRENTLY. WITH NO INSOLATION REACHING
THE SURFACE AND VIRTUALLY NO MIXING...VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BE
RESTRICTED AS WELL WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO UNDERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE RANCHLANDS WHERE LOWER
50S RESIDE...MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEY.

AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TONIGHT. DENSE FOG MAY RESIDE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
COASTAL SECTIONS WITH A LIGHT EAST FLOW THERE. OVER LAND...A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTWEST SFC WIND WILL PREVAIL WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE DENSE
FOG AT THE COAST. WITH NO RADIATIONAL FOG DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 2 MILES SHOULD BE COMMON. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CURRENTLY AT THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS WILL BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS CONDITIONS DO NOT CHANGE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE EXPECT LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRES WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY WHICH
WILL REPLACE RIDGING NOSING INTO THE AREA AND HELP LIFT THE
LINGERING COASTAL TROUGHING OUT OF THE AREA. SFC WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. THIS SHOULD HELP
MIX SOME OF THE CLOUDS OUT WITH PEAKS OF THE SUN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE WHICH SHOULD HELP
MIX DOWN DRIER AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 80S OUT WEST
AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. CLOUDY SKIES RETURN EARLY BUT WITH
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS BELIEVE FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGHLY ADVERTISED MAJOR COLD
FRONT STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHARP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF THE U.S WITH A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST TO SURGE ARCTIC AIR THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND INTO TEXAS. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO SEE THE FRONT
SHORTLY BEFORE OR AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT
CLEARING THE LOWER VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH
WITH COLD AIR BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION THUSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LITTLE RELIEF EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY. THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM INITIALLY PHASE
TOGETHER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE ARCTIC AIR TO SURGE SOUTH. THE
NORTHERN BRANCH THEN LIFTS OUT NE WHILE ENERGY REMAINS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND OFF BAJA CA WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. ITS
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TAKE WILL DETERMINE OUR RAIN CHANCES
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE POPS WITH
GUIDANCE HOLDING ONTO GOOD TO LIKELY CHANCES BUT VERY LOW QPF. A
BLEND OF THE 12Z MODEL PACKAGE AND THE INHERITED FORECAST KEEP THE
BEST CHANCES IN THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE BIG PLUNGE/FALL OF 30-45 DEGREES TAKES
PLACE ALL WITHIN A 9 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE A FACTOR DROPPING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY SUNRISE...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH...AND NOT
RECOVERING UNTIL LATER FRIDAY. MODELS ARE DOING THEIR DARNEST
KEEPING TEMPERATURES RATHER LOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND EVEN
SUNDAY WITH NO REAL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EXPECTED. FUTURE
FORECAST MAY HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME MORE IF THE COLD AIR
DOES NOT MODIFY...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT TOOK PLACE THIS PAST WEEKEND.

TOO EARLY AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF ANY FREEZING PRECIPIATION DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND ATMOSPHERE INDICATES AN 8000 FOOT DEEP SATURATED LAYER.
THE LOW QPF SIGNAL WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE AT BEST BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP LIQUID UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE APPOINTED
TIME.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH
VISIBILITIES AT A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AND RAPIDLY CHANGING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING.
THIS SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BY MID MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN A MAJOR COLD FRONT SURGES INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS ADVERSE THURSDAY AND PROBABLY
THROUGH FRIDAY. GALE CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS MODELS ARE NOW
INDICATING SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE. IN ANY
CASE...GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE OBTAINED WITH SEAS RAPIDLY
EXCEEDING 10 FEET BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. COASTAL TROUGHING SETS UP
LATER THU AND PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY KEEPING THE GULF AND
NEARBY LAGUNA MADRE UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW AT MODERATE TO STRONG
LEVELS WITH PERIODIC SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WARRANTED.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ251-253>257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KBRO 022059
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
259 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC/NEAR
SFC FLOW UNDERNEATH SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO
OVERCAST SKIES TODAY. CLOUDS HAVE NOT BUDGED TODAY AND IN FACT DRAPE
MOST OF THE STATE OF TEXAS CURRENTLY. WITH NO INSOLATION REACHING
THE SURFACE AND VIRTUALLY NO MIXING...VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BE
RESTRICTED AS WELL WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO UNDERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE RANCHLANDS WHERE LOWER
50S RESIDE...MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEY.

AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TONIGHT. DENSE FOG MAY RESIDE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
COASTAL SECTIONS WITH A LIGHT EAST FLOW THERE. OVER LAND...A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTWEST SFC WIND WILL PREVAIL WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE DENSE
FOG AT THE COAST. WITH NO RADIATIONAL FOG DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 2 MILES SHOULD BE COMMON. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CURRENTLY AT THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS WILL BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS CONDITIONS DO NOT CHANGE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE EXPECT LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRES WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY WHICH
WILL REPLACE RIDGING NOSING INTO THE AREA AND HELP LIFT THE
LINGERING COASTAL TROUGHING OUT OF THE AREA. SFC WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. THIS SHOULD HELP
MIX SOME OF THE CLOUDS OUT WITH PEAKS OF THE SUN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE WHICH SHOULD HELP
MIX DOWN DRIER AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 80S OUT WEST
AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. CLOUDY SKIES RETURN EARLY BUT WITH
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS BELIEVE FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGHLY ADVERTISED MAJOR COLD
FRONT STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHARP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF THE U.S WITH A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST TO SURGE ARCTIC AIR THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND INTO TEXAS. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO SEE THE FRONT
SHORTLY BEFORE OR AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT
CLEARING THE LOWER VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH
WITH COLD AIR BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION THUSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LITTLE RELIEF EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY. THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM INITIALLY PHASE
TOGETHER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE ARCTIC AIR TO SURGE SOUTH. THE
NORTHERN BRANCH THEN LIFTS OUT NE WHILE ENERGY REMAINS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND OFF BAJA CA WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. ITS
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TAKE WILL DETERMINE OUR RAIN CHANCES
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE POPS WITH
GUIDANCE HOLDING ONTO GOOD TO LIKELY CHANCES BUT VERY LOW QPF. A
BLEND OF THE 12Z MODEL PACKAGE AND THE INHERITED FORECAST KEEP THE
BEST CHANCES IN THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE BIG PLUNGE/FALL OF 30-45 DEGREES TAKES
PLACE ALL WITHIN A 9 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE A FACTOR DROPPING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY SUNRISE...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH...AND NOT
RECOVERING UNTIL LATER FRIDAY. MODELS ARE DOING THEIR DARNEST
KEEPING TEMPERATURES RATHER LOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND EVEN
SUNDAY WITH NO REAL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EXPECTED. FUTURE
FORECAST MAY HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME MORE IF THE COLD AIR
DOES NOT MODIFY...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT TOOK PLACE THIS PAST WEEKEND.

TOO EARLY AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF ANY FREEZING PRECIPIATION DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND ATMOSPHERE INDICATES AN 8000 FOOT DEEP SATURATED LAYER.
THE LOW QPF SIGNAL WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE AT BEST BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP LIQUID UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE APPOINTED
TIME.


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH
VISIBILITIES AT A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AND RAPIDLY CHANGING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING.
THIS SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BY MID MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN A MAJOR COLD FRONT SURGES INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS ADVERSE THURSDAY AND PROBABLY
THROUGH FRIDAY. GALE CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS MODELS ARE NOW
INDICATING SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE. IN ANY
CASE...GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE OBTAINED WITH SEAS RAPIDLY
EXCEEDING 10 FEET BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. COASTAL TROUGHING SETS UP
LATER THU AND PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY KEEPING THE GULF AND
NEARBY LAGUNA MADRE UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW AT MODERATE TO STRONG
LEVELS WITH PERIODIC SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WARRANTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  53  76  66  77 /  20  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          53  77  67  81 /  20  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            52  79  66  83 /  20  20  10  10
MCALLEN              50  81  66  84 /  20  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      50  81  65  85 /  20  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   57  72  65  72 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
BILLINGS...PSU/GRAPHICS





000
FXUS64 KBRO 022059
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
259 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC/NEAR
SFC FLOW UNDERNEATH SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO
OVERCAST SKIES TODAY. CLOUDS HAVE NOT BUDGED TODAY AND IN FACT DRAPE
MOST OF THE STATE OF TEXAS CURRENTLY. WITH NO INSOLATION REACHING
THE SURFACE AND VIRTUALLY NO MIXING...VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BE
RESTRICTED AS WELL WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO UNDERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE RANCHLANDS WHERE LOWER
50S RESIDE...MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEY.

AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TONIGHT. DENSE FOG MAY RESIDE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
COASTAL SECTIONS WITH A LIGHT EAST FLOW THERE. OVER LAND...A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTWEST SFC WIND WILL PREVAIL WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE DENSE
FOG AT THE COAST. WITH NO RADIATIONAL FOG DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 2 MILES SHOULD BE COMMON. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CURRENTLY AT THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS WILL BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS CONDITIONS DO NOT CHANGE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE EXPECT LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRES WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY WHICH
WILL REPLACE RIDGING NOSING INTO THE AREA AND HELP LIFT THE
LINGERING COASTAL TROUGHING OUT OF THE AREA. SFC WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. THIS SHOULD HELP
MIX SOME OF THE CLOUDS OUT WITH PEAKS OF THE SUN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE WHICH SHOULD HELP
MIX DOWN DRIER AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 80S OUT WEST
AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. CLOUDY SKIES RETURN EARLY BUT WITH
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS BELIEVE FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGHLY ADVERTISED MAJOR COLD
FRONT STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHARP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF THE U.S WITH A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST TO SURGE ARCTIC AIR THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND INTO TEXAS. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO SEE THE FRONT
SHORTLY BEFORE OR AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT
CLEARING THE LOWER VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH
WITH COLD AIR BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION THUSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LITTLE RELIEF EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY. THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM INITIALLY PHASE
TOGETHER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE ARCTIC AIR TO SURGE SOUTH. THE
NORTHERN BRANCH THEN LIFTS OUT NE WHILE ENERGY REMAINS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND OFF BAJA CA WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. ITS
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TAKE WILL DETERMINE OUR RAIN CHANCES
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE POPS WITH
GUIDANCE HOLDING ONTO GOOD TO LIKELY CHANCES BUT VERY LOW QPF. A
BLEND OF THE 12Z MODEL PACKAGE AND THE INHERITED FORECAST KEEP THE
BEST CHANCES IN THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE BIG PLUNGE/FALL OF 30-45 DEGREES TAKES
PLACE ALL WITHIN A 9 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE A FACTOR DROPPING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY SUNRISE...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH...AND NOT
RECOVERING UNTIL LATER FRIDAY. MODELS ARE DOING THEIR DARNEST
KEEPING TEMPERATURES RATHER LOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND EVEN
SUNDAY WITH NO REAL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EXPECTED. FUTURE
FORECAST MAY HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME MORE IF THE COLD AIR
DOES NOT MODIFY...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT TOOK PLACE THIS PAST WEEKEND.

TOO EARLY AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF ANY FREEZING PRECIPIATION DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND ATMOSPHERE INDICATES AN 8000 FOOT DEEP SATURATED LAYER.
THE LOW QPF SIGNAL WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE AT BEST BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP LIQUID UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE APPOINTED
TIME.


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH
VISIBILITIES AT A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AND RAPIDLY CHANGING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING.
THIS SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BY MID MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN A MAJOR COLD FRONT SURGES INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS ADVERSE THURSDAY AND PROBABLY
THROUGH FRIDAY. GALE CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS MODELS ARE NOW
INDICATING SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE. IN ANY
CASE...GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE OBTAINED WITH SEAS RAPIDLY
EXCEEDING 10 FEET BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. COASTAL TROUGHING SETS UP
LATER THU AND PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY KEEPING THE GULF AND
NEARBY LAGUNA MADRE UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW AT MODERATE TO STRONG
LEVELS WITH PERIODIC SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WARRANTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  53  76  66  77 /  20  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          53  77  67  81 /  20  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            52  79  66  83 /  20  20  10  10
MCALLEN              50  81  66  84 /  20  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      50  81  65  85 /  20  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   57  72  65  72 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
BILLINGS...PSU/GRAPHICS




000
FXUS64 KBRO 022059
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
259 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC/NEAR
SFC FLOW UNDERNEATH SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO
OVERCAST SKIES TODAY. CLOUDS HAVE NOT BUDGED TODAY AND IN FACT DRAPE
MOST OF THE STATE OF TEXAS CURRENTLY. WITH NO INSOLATION REACHING
THE SURFACE AND VIRTUALLY NO MIXING...VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BE
RESTRICTED AS WELL WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO UNDERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE RANCHLANDS WHERE LOWER
50S RESIDE...MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEY.

AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TONIGHT. DENSE FOG MAY RESIDE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
COASTAL SECTIONS WITH A LIGHT EAST FLOW THERE. OVER LAND...A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTWEST SFC WIND WILL PREVAIL WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE DENSE
FOG AT THE COAST. WITH NO RADIATIONAL FOG DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 2 MILES SHOULD BE COMMON. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CURRENTLY AT THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS WILL BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS CONDITIONS DO NOT CHANGE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE EXPECT LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRES WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY WHICH
WILL REPLACE RIDGING NOSING INTO THE AREA AND HELP LIFT THE
LINGERING COASTAL TROUGHING OUT OF THE AREA. SFC WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. THIS SHOULD HELP
MIX SOME OF THE CLOUDS OUT WITH PEAKS OF THE SUN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE WHICH SHOULD HELP
MIX DOWN DRIER AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 80S OUT WEST
AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. CLOUDY SKIES RETURN EARLY BUT WITH
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS BELIEVE FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGHLY ADVERTISED MAJOR COLD
FRONT STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHARP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF THE U.S WITH A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST TO SURGE ARCTIC AIR THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND INTO TEXAS. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO SEE THE FRONT
SHORTLY BEFORE OR AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT
CLEARING THE LOWER VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH
WITH COLD AIR BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION THUSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LITTLE RELIEF EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY. THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM INITIALLY PHASE
TOGETHER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE ARCTIC AIR TO SURGE SOUTH. THE
NORTHERN BRANCH THEN LIFTS OUT NE WHILE ENERGY REMAINS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND OFF BAJA CA WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. ITS
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TAKE WILL DETERMINE OUR RAIN CHANCES
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE POPS WITH
GUIDANCE HOLDING ONTO GOOD TO LIKELY CHANCES BUT VERY LOW QPF. A
BLEND OF THE 12Z MODEL PACKAGE AND THE INHERITED FORECAST KEEP THE
BEST CHANCES IN THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE BIG PLUNGE/FALL OF 30-45 DEGREES TAKES
PLACE ALL WITHIN A 9 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE A FACTOR DROPPING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY SUNRISE...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH...AND NOT
RECOVERING UNTIL LATER FRIDAY. MODELS ARE DOING THEIR DARNEST
KEEPING TEMPERATURES RATHER LOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND EVEN
SUNDAY WITH NO REAL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EXPECTED. FUTURE
FORECAST MAY HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME MORE IF THE COLD AIR
DOES NOT MODIFY...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT TOOK PLACE THIS PAST WEEKEND.

TOO EARLY AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF ANY FREEZING PRECIPIATION DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND ATMOSPHERE INDICATES AN 8000 FOOT DEEP SATURATED LAYER.
THE LOW QPF SIGNAL WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE AT BEST BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP LIQUID UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE APPOINTED
TIME.


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH
VISIBILITIES AT A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AND RAPIDLY CHANGING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING.
THIS SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BY MID MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN A MAJOR COLD FRONT SURGES INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS ADVERSE THURSDAY AND PROBABLY
THROUGH FRIDAY. GALE CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS MODELS ARE NOW
INDICATING SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE. IN ANY
CASE...GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE OBTAINED WITH SEAS RAPIDLY
EXCEEDING 10 FEET BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. COASTAL TROUGHING SETS UP
LATER THU AND PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY KEEPING THE GULF AND
NEARBY LAGUNA MADRE UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW AT MODERATE TO STRONG
LEVELS WITH PERIODIC SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WARRANTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  53  76  66  77 /  20  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          53  77  67  81 /  20  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            52  79  66  83 /  20  20  10  10
MCALLEN              50  81  66  84 /  20  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      50  81  65  85 /  20  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   57  72  65  72 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
BILLINGS...PSU/GRAPHICS




000
FXUS64 KBRO 022059
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
259 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC/NEAR
SFC FLOW UNDERNEATH SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO
OVERCAST SKIES TODAY. CLOUDS HAVE NOT BUDGED TODAY AND IN FACT DRAPE
MOST OF THE STATE OF TEXAS CURRENTLY. WITH NO INSOLATION REACHING
THE SURFACE AND VIRTUALLY NO MIXING...VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BE
RESTRICTED AS WELL WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO UNDERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE RANCHLANDS WHERE LOWER
50S RESIDE...MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEY.

AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TONIGHT. DENSE FOG MAY RESIDE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
COASTAL SECTIONS WITH A LIGHT EAST FLOW THERE. OVER LAND...A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTWEST SFC WIND WILL PREVAIL WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE DENSE
FOG AT THE COAST. WITH NO RADIATIONAL FOG DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 2 MILES SHOULD BE COMMON. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CURRENTLY AT THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS WILL BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS CONDITIONS DO NOT CHANGE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE EXPECT LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRES WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY WHICH
WILL REPLACE RIDGING NOSING INTO THE AREA AND HELP LIFT THE
LINGERING COASTAL TROUGHING OUT OF THE AREA. SFC WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. THIS SHOULD HELP
MIX SOME OF THE CLOUDS OUT WITH PEAKS OF THE SUN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE WHICH SHOULD HELP
MIX DOWN DRIER AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 80S OUT WEST
AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. CLOUDY SKIES RETURN EARLY BUT WITH
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS BELIEVE FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGHLY ADVERTISED MAJOR COLD
FRONT STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHARP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF THE U.S WITH A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST TO SURGE ARCTIC AIR THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND INTO TEXAS. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO SEE THE FRONT
SHORTLY BEFORE OR AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT
CLEARING THE LOWER VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH
WITH COLD AIR BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION THUSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LITTLE RELIEF EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY. THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM INITIALLY PHASE
TOGETHER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE ARCTIC AIR TO SURGE SOUTH. THE
NORTHERN BRANCH THEN LIFTS OUT NE WHILE ENERGY REMAINS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND OFF BAJA CA WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. ITS
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TAKE WILL DETERMINE OUR RAIN CHANCES
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE POPS WITH
GUIDANCE HOLDING ONTO GOOD TO LIKELY CHANCES BUT VERY LOW QPF. A
BLEND OF THE 12Z MODEL PACKAGE AND THE INHERITED FORECAST KEEP THE
BEST CHANCES IN THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE BIG PLUNGE/FALL OF 30-45 DEGREES TAKES
PLACE ALL WITHIN A 9 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE A FACTOR DROPPING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY SUNRISE...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH...AND NOT
RECOVERING UNTIL LATER FRIDAY. MODELS ARE DOING THEIR DARNEST
KEEPING TEMPERATURES RATHER LOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND EVEN
SUNDAY WITH NO REAL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EXPECTED. FUTURE
FORECAST MAY HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME MORE IF THE COLD AIR
DOES NOT MODIFY...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT TOOK PLACE THIS PAST WEEKEND.

TOO EARLY AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF ANY FREEZING PRECIPIATION DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND ATMOSPHERE INDICATES AN 8000 FOOT DEEP SATURATED LAYER.
THE LOW QPF SIGNAL WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE AT BEST BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP LIQUID UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE APPOINTED
TIME.


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH
VISIBILITIES AT A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AND RAPIDLY CHANGING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING.
THIS SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BY MID MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN A MAJOR COLD FRONT SURGES INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS ADVERSE THURSDAY AND PROBABLY
THROUGH FRIDAY. GALE CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS MODELS ARE NOW
INDICATING SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE. IN ANY
CASE...GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE OBTAINED WITH SEAS RAPIDLY
EXCEEDING 10 FEET BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. COASTAL TROUGHING SETS UP
LATER THU AND PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY KEEPING THE GULF AND
NEARBY LAGUNA MADRE UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW AT MODERATE TO STRONG
LEVELS WITH PERIODIC SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WARRANTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  53  76  66  77 /  20  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          53  77  67  81 /  20  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            52  79  66  83 /  20  20  10  10
MCALLEN              50  81  66  84 /  20  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      50  81  65  85 /  20  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   57  72  65  72 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
BILLINGS...PSU/GRAPHICS





000
FXUS64 KBRO 021739
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1139 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
OVERRUNNING AND NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE LOWERED CIGS AND VISIBILITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AREA WIDE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING TO IFR BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH COASTAL TROUGHING PERSISTING ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND COOLING SURFACE
TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO LOWERING CIGS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. AREAS OF FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS WELL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAFS THIS PACKAGE. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...JET MAXIMUM IS WORKING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THAT TROUGH GIVING IT A KICK EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH WILL HELP
GET OUR WEATHER PATTERN MOVING A BIT. MEANWHILE SHALLOW COLD AIR IS
PILED UP ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL US DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA MADRES. BROADLY DIVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO REINFORCING COASTAL TROUGHING JUST
OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST.  AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PERSIST AND
IT WILL TAKE SOME PRETTY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TO BREAK
EVERYTHING UP.

TODAY...
AS A RESULT EXPECT WE WILL PRETTY WELL STAY CLOUDY AND
DRIZZLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WONT WARM UP MUCH...MAYBE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES
FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSE ENOUGH BY LATE
AFTERNOON TO POSSIBLY SHIFT OUR WINDS TO THE EAST AND OUR 850MB
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE IN TIME TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

TONIGHT...
THE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF IN A WAY TO GENERATE BROADLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH INCREASES LEE SURFACE
TROUGHING. THIS LEADS TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIGHT WINDS INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY FOG LOOKS LIKELY WITH DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE. IT WOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ENTIRELY AN ADVECTION FOG
EVENT HOWEVER WITH THICK CLOUD COVER LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCREASE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WHICH SHOULD HELP BREAK UP LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ALLOW FOR A
BREEZY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS SHOW STRONGER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OR SO OF
THE CWA AND THEY LIMIT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
LAND/SEA INTERFACE...WHICH WE SEE FREQUENTLY IN SUCH PATTERNS.
INHERITED FORECAST SHOWS THIS AND DIDNT ALTER MUCH.  850MB
SOUTHWESTERLIES DRY AND WARM THAT LAYER AND PUT A CAP ON ANY DEEP
CONVECTION DESPITE INCREASED LOW LAYER CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION. LOW CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND LONGER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND CONTINUED HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THERE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING THE MID 80S IN THE MID AND UPPER VALLEY. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...A LARGE AND ELONGATED
500 MB TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE ROCKIES ON TUES WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING EAST INTO WED. THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL THEN SHEAR OFF OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH LATER
IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE SOUTHERN END FORMING UP A CLOSED 500 MB
LOW OVER THE DESERT SW AND NW MEXICO AROUND FRI. ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN DIVE SE FROM THE NW STATES WHICH WILL
OPEN UP THE CLOSED LOW AND PUSH IT EAST OVER TX THIS WEEKEND. THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS PROGRESSION OF TROUGHS WILL BE A MAJOR
CANADIAN COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE RGV LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY
THURS MORNING. THE POST FRONTAL COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
LATTER FORECAST PERIODS. MSL FIELDS ALSO INDICATE A STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE TROFFING PERSISTING ALONG
THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AFTER THE FROPA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
PERSISTENT SURFACE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN STEADY
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER MUCH OF THE BRO CWA WHICH WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN PLENTY OF LOW CLDS AND RAIN CHCS THROUGH DAY 7 AFTER THE
FRONT.

FREEZING TEMPS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY AT THIS TIME IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER SOME POINTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA COULD FLIRT
WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS THURS AND FRI MORNINGS.

THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF
THE UPCOMING EVENT. AM WARY OF BOTH MODELS WANTING TO WARM UP
TEMPS SERIOUSLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS BOTH OF THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN WARMING UP TEMPS
AFTER A FROPA WHEN THE LOWER ATMS LAYERS REMAIN SATURATED FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. SO WILL UNDERCUT MODEL TEMPS A BIT IN
THE LONGER TERM MAINTAINING A COOLER BIAS. OVERALL POPS WILL BE A
GENERAL 50/50 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE ECMWF HAS A DRIER
BIAS WITH THE GFS MEX MOS POPS MAINTAINING CHC POPS ALL THE WAY
THROUGH DAY 7.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY... COASTAL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO
PADRE ISLAND. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS IS FORECAST TONIGHT
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AMID MODERATE SEAS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE
VERY QUICKLY LATE WED/EARLY THURS AFTER THE FROPA. CONDITIONS WILL
BE SOLIDLY SCA BORDERING ON GALE CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND
GULF WATERS INTO THURS/THURS NIGHT. THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE A LITTLE ON FRI AS THE PGF WEAKENS A BIT. HOWEVER SCAS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOWER TX GULF WATERS INTO FRI.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ130-132-
     135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/99




000
FXUS64 KBRO 021739
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1139 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
OVERRUNNING AND NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE LOWERED CIGS AND VISIBILITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AREA WIDE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING TO IFR BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH COASTAL TROUGHING PERSISTING ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND COOLING SURFACE
TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO LOWERING CIGS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. AREAS OF FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS WELL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAFS THIS PACKAGE. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...JET MAXIMUM IS WORKING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THAT TROUGH GIVING IT A KICK EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH WILL HELP
GET OUR WEATHER PATTERN MOVING A BIT. MEANWHILE SHALLOW COLD AIR IS
PILED UP ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL US DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA MADRES. BROADLY DIVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO REINFORCING COASTAL TROUGHING JUST
OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST.  AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PERSIST AND
IT WILL TAKE SOME PRETTY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TO BREAK
EVERYTHING UP.

TODAY...
AS A RESULT EXPECT WE WILL PRETTY WELL STAY CLOUDY AND
DRIZZLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WONT WARM UP MUCH...MAYBE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES
FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSE ENOUGH BY LATE
AFTERNOON TO POSSIBLY SHIFT OUR WINDS TO THE EAST AND OUR 850MB
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE IN TIME TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

TONIGHT...
THE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF IN A WAY TO GENERATE BROADLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH INCREASES LEE SURFACE
TROUGHING. THIS LEADS TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIGHT WINDS INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY FOG LOOKS LIKELY WITH DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE. IT WOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ENTIRELY AN ADVECTION FOG
EVENT HOWEVER WITH THICK CLOUD COVER LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCREASE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WHICH SHOULD HELP BREAK UP LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ALLOW FOR A
BREEZY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS SHOW STRONGER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OR SO OF
THE CWA AND THEY LIMIT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
LAND/SEA INTERFACE...WHICH WE SEE FREQUENTLY IN SUCH PATTERNS.
INHERITED FORECAST SHOWS THIS AND DIDNT ALTER MUCH.  850MB
SOUTHWESTERLIES DRY AND WARM THAT LAYER AND PUT A CAP ON ANY DEEP
CONVECTION DESPITE INCREASED LOW LAYER CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION. LOW CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND LONGER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND CONTINUED HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THERE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING THE MID 80S IN THE MID AND UPPER VALLEY. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...A LARGE AND ELONGATED
500 MB TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE ROCKIES ON TUES WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING EAST INTO WED. THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL THEN SHEAR OFF OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH LATER
IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE SOUTHERN END FORMING UP A CLOSED 500 MB
LOW OVER THE DESERT SW AND NW MEXICO AROUND FRI. ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN DIVE SE FROM THE NW STATES WHICH WILL
OPEN UP THE CLOSED LOW AND PUSH IT EAST OVER TX THIS WEEKEND. THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS PROGRESSION OF TROUGHS WILL BE A MAJOR
CANADIAN COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE RGV LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY
THURS MORNING. THE POST FRONTAL COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
LATTER FORECAST PERIODS. MSL FIELDS ALSO INDICATE A STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE TROFFING PERSISTING ALONG
THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AFTER THE FROPA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
PERSISTENT SURFACE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN STEADY
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER MUCH OF THE BRO CWA WHICH WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN PLENTY OF LOW CLDS AND RAIN CHCS THROUGH DAY 7 AFTER THE
FRONT.

FREEZING TEMPS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY AT THIS TIME IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER SOME POINTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA COULD FLIRT
WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS THURS AND FRI MORNINGS.

THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF
THE UPCOMING EVENT. AM WARY OF BOTH MODELS WANTING TO WARM UP
TEMPS SERIOUSLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS BOTH OF THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN WARMING UP TEMPS
AFTER A FROPA WHEN THE LOWER ATMS LAYERS REMAIN SATURATED FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. SO WILL UNDERCUT MODEL TEMPS A BIT IN
THE LONGER TERM MAINTAINING A COOLER BIAS. OVERALL POPS WILL BE A
GENERAL 50/50 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE ECMWF HAS A DRIER
BIAS WITH THE GFS MEX MOS POPS MAINTAINING CHC POPS ALL THE WAY
THROUGH DAY 7.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY... COASTAL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO
PADRE ISLAND. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS IS FORECAST TONIGHT
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AMID MODERATE SEAS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE
VERY QUICKLY LATE WED/EARLY THURS AFTER THE FROPA. CONDITIONS WILL
BE SOLIDLY SCA BORDERING ON GALE CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND
GULF WATERS INTO THURS/THURS NIGHT. THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE A LITTLE ON FRI AS THE PGF WEAKENS A BIT. HOWEVER SCAS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOWER TX GULF WATERS INTO FRI.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ130-132-
     135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/99





000
FXUS64 KBRO 021739
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1139 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
OVERRUNNING AND NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE LOWERED CIGS AND VISIBILITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AREA WIDE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING TO IFR BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH COASTAL TROUGHING PERSISTING ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND COOLING SURFACE
TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO LOWERING CIGS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. AREAS OF FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS WELL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAFS THIS PACKAGE. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...JET MAXIMUM IS WORKING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THAT TROUGH GIVING IT A KICK EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH WILL HELP
GET OUR WEATHER PATTERN MOVING A BIT. MEANWHILE SHALLOW COLD AIR IS
PILED UP ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL US DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA MADRES. BROADLY DIVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO REINFORCING COASTAL TROUGHING JUST
OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST.  AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PERSIST AND
IT WILL TAKE SOME PRETTY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TO BREAK
EVERYTHING UP.

TODAY...
AS A RESULT EXPECT WE WILL PRETTY WELL STAY CLOUDY AND
DRIZZLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WONT WARM UP MUCH...MAYBE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES
FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSE ENOUGH BY LATE
AFTERNOON TO POSSIBLY SHIFT OUR WINDS TO THE EAST AND OUR 850MB
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE IN TIME TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

TONIGHT...
THE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF IN A WAY TO GENERATE BROADLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH INCREASES LEE SURFACE
TROUGHING. THIS LEADS TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIGHT WINDS INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY FOG LOOKS LIKELY WITH DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE. IT WOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ENTIRELY AN ADVECTION FOG
EVENT HOWEVER WITH THICK CLOUD COVER LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCREASE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WHICH SHOULD HELP BREAK UP LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ALLOW FOR A
BREEZY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS SHOW STRONGER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OR SO OF
THE CWA AND THEY LIMIT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
LAND/SEA INTERFACE...WHICH WE SEE FREQUENTLY IN SUCH PATTERNS.
INHERITED FORECAST SHOWS THIS AND DIDNT ALTER MUCH.  850MB
SOUTHWESTERLIES DRY AND WARM THAT LAYER AND PUT A CAP ON ANY DEEP
CONVECTION DESPITE INCREASED LOW LAYER CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION. LOW CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND LONGER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND CONTINUED HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THERE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING THE MID 80S IN THE MID AND UPPER VALLEY. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...A LARGE AND ELONGATED
500 MB TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE ROCKIES ON TUES WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING EAST INTO WED. THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL THEN SHEAR OFF OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH LATER
IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE SOUTHERN END FORMING UP A CLOSED 500 MB
LOW OVER THE DESERT SW AND NW MEXICO AROUND FRI. ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN DIVE SE FROM THE NW STATES WHICH WILL
OPEN UP THE CLOSED LOW AND PUSH IT EAST OVER TX THIS WEEKEND. THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS PROGRESSION OF TROUGHS WILL BE A MAJOR
CANADIAN COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE RGV LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY
THURS MORNING. THE POST FRONTAL COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
LATTER FORECAST PERIODS. MSL FIELDS ALSO INDICATE A STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE TROFFING PERSISTING ALONG
THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AFTER THE FROPA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
PERSISTENT SURFACE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN STEADY
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER MUCH OF THE BRO CWA WHICH WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN PLENTY OF LOW CLDS AND RAIN CHCS THROUGH DAY 7 AFTER THE
FRONT.

FREEZING TEMPS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY AT THIS TIME IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER SOME POINTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA COULD FLIRT
WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS THURS AND FRI MORNINGS.

THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF
THE UPCOMING EVENT. AM WARY OF BOTH MODELS WANTING TO WARM UP
TEMPS SERIOUSLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS BOTH OF THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN WARMING UP TEMPS
AFTER A FROPA WHEN THE LOWER ATMS LAYERS REMAIN SATURATED FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. SO WILL UNDERCUT MODEL TEMPS A BIT IN
THE LONGER TERM MAINTAINING A COOLER BIAS. OVERALL POPS WILL BE A
GENERAL 50/50 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE ECMWF HAS A DRIER
BIAS WITH THE GFS MEX MOS POPS MAINTAINING CHC POPS ALL THE WAY
THROUGH DAY 7.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY... COASTAL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO
PADRE ISLAND. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS IS FORECAST TONIGHT
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AMID MODERATE SEAS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE
VERY QUICKLY LATE WED/EARLY THURS AFTER THE FROPA. CONDITIONS WILL
BE SOLIDLY SCA BORDERING ON GALE CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND
GULF WATERS INTO THURS/THURS NIGHT. THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE A LITTLE ON FRI AS THE PGF WEAKENS A BIT. HOWEVER SCAS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOWER TX GULF WATERS INTO FRI.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ130-132-
     135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/99




000
FXUS64 KBRO 021739
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1139 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
OVERRUNNING AND NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE LOWERED CIGS AND VISIBILITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AREA WIDE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING TO IFR BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH COASTAL TROUGHING PERSISTING ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND COOLING SURFACE
TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO LOWERING CIGS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. AREAS OF FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS WELL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAFS THIS PACKAGE. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...JET MAXIMUM IS WORKING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THAT TROUGH GIVING IT A KICK EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH WILL HELP
GET OUR WEATHER PATTERN MOVING A BIT. MEANWHILE SHALLOW COLD AIR IS
PILED UP ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL US DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA MADRES. BROADLY DIVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO REINFORCING COASTAL TROUGHING JUST
OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST.  AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PERSIST AND
IT WILL TAKE SOME PRETTY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TO BREAK
EVERYTHING UP.

TODAY...
AS A RESULT EXPECT WE WILL PRETTY WELL STAY CLOUDY AND
DRIZZLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WONT WARM UP MUCH...MAYBE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES
FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSE ENOUGH BY LATE
AFTERNOON TO POSSIBLY SHIFT OUR WINDS TO THE EAST AND OUR 850MB
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE IN TIME TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

TONIGHT...
THE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF IN A WAY TO GENERATE BROADLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH INCREASES LEE SURFACE
TROUGHING. THIS LEADS TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIGHT WINDS INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY FOG LOOKS LIKELY WITH DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE. IT WOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ENTIRELY AN ADVECTION FOG
EVENT HOWEVER WITH THICK CLOUD COVER LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCREASE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WHICH SHOULD HELP BREAK UP LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ALLOW FOR A
BREEZY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS SHOW STRONGER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OR SO OF
THE CWA AND THEY LIMIT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
LAND/SEA INTERFACE...WHICH WE SEE FREQUENTLY IN SUCH PATTERNS.
INHERITED FORECAST SHOWS THIS AND DIDNT ALTER MUCH.  850MB
SOUTHWESTERLIES DRY AND WARM THAT LAYER AND PUT A CAP ON ANY DEEP
CONVECTION DESPITE INCREASED LOW LAYER CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION. LOW CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND LONGER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND CONTINUED HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THERE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING THE MID 80S IN THE MID AND UPPER VALLEY. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...A LARGE AND ELONGATED
500 MB TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE ROCKIES ON TUES WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING EAST INTO WED. THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL THEN SHEAR OFF OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH LATER
IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE SOUTHERN END FORMING UP A CLOSED 500 MB
LOW OVER THE DESERT SW AND NW MEXICO AROUND FRI. ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN DIVE SE FROM THE NW STATES WHICH WILL
OPEN UP THE CLOSED LOW AND PUSH IT EAST OVER TX THIS WEEKEND. THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS PROGRESSION OF TROUGHS WILL BE A MAJOR
CANADIAN COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE RGV LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY
THURS MORNING. THE POST FRONTAL COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
LATTER FORECAST PERIODS. MSL FIELDS ALSO INDICATE A STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE TROFFING PERSISTING ALONG
THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AFTER THE FROPA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
PERSISTENT SURFACE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN STEADY
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER MUCH OF THE BRO CWA WHICH WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN PLENTY OF LOW CLDS AND RAIN CHCS THROUGH DAY 7 AFTER THE
FRONT.

FREEZING TEMPS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY AT THIS TIME IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER SOME POINTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA COULD FLIRT
WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS THURS AND FRI MORNINGS.

THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF
THE UPCOMING EVENT. AM WARY OF BOTH MODELS WANTING TO WARM UP
TEMPS SERIOUSLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS BOTH OF THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN WARMING UP TEMPS
AFTER A FROPA WHEN THE LOWER ATMS LAYERS REMAIN SATURATED FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. SO WILL UNDERCUT MODEL TEMPS A BIT IN
THE LONGER TERM MAINTAINING A COOLER BIAS. OVERALL POPS WILL BE A
GENERAL 50/50 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE ECMWF HAS A DRIER
BIAS WITH THE GFS MEX MOS POPS MAINTAINING CHC POPS ALL THE WAY
THROUGH DAY 7.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY... COASTAL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO
PADRE ISLAND. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS IS FORECAST TONIGHT
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AMID MODERATE SEAS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE
VERY QUICKLY LATE WED/EARLY THURS AFTER THE FROPA. CONDITIONS WILL
BE SOLIDLY SCA BORDERING ON GALE CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND
GULF WATERS INTO THURS/THURS NIGHT. THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE A LITTLE ON FRI AS THE PGF WEAKENS A BIT. HOWEVER SCAS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOWER TX GULF WATERS INTO FRI.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ130-132-
     135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/99





000
FXUS64 KBRO 021126 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
526 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AREA WIDE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING TO IFR BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH COASTAL TROUGHING PERSISTING ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND COOLING SURFACE
TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO LOWERING CIGS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. AREAS OF FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS WELL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAFS THIS PACKAGE. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...JET MAXIMUM IS WORKING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THAT TROUGH GIVING IT A KICK EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH WILL HELP
GET OUR WEATHER PATTERN MOVING A BIT. MEANWHILE SHALLOW COLD AIR IS
PILED UP ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL US DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA MADRES. BROADLY DIVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO REINFORCING COASTAL TROUGHING JUST
OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST.  AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PERSIST AND
IT WILL TAKE SOME PRETTY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TO BREAK
EVERYTHING UP.

TODAY...
AS A RESULT EXPECT WE WILL PRETTY WELL STAY CLOUDY AND
DRIZZLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WONT WARM UP MUCH...MAYBE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES
FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSE ENOUGH BY LATE
AFTERNOON TO POSSIBLY SHIFT OUR WINDS TO THE EAST AND OUR 850MB
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE IN TIME TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

TONIGHT...
THE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF IN A WAY TO GENERATE BROADLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH INCREASES LEE SURFACE
TROUGHING. THIS LEADS TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIGHT WINDS INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY FOG LOOKS LIKELY WITH DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE. IT WOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ENTIRELY AN ADVECTION FOG
EVENT HOWEVER WITH THICK CLOUD COVER LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCREASE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WHICH SHOULD HELP BREAK UP LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ALLOW FOR A
BREEZY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS SHOW STRONGER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OR SO OF
THE CWA AND THEY LIMIT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
LAND/SEA INTERFACE...WHICH WE SEE FREQUENTLY IN SUCH PATTERNS.
INHERITED FORECAST SHOWS THIS AND DIDNT ALTER MUCH.  850MB
SOUTHWESTERLIES DRY AND WARM THAT LAYER AND PUT A CAP ON ANY DEEP
CONVECTION DESPITE INCREASED LOW LAYER CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION. LOW CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND LONGER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND CONTINUED HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THERE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING THE MID 80S IN THE MID AND UPPER VALLEY. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...A LARGE AND ELONGATED
500 MB TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE ROCKIES ON TUES WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING EAST INTO WED. THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL THEN SHEAR OFF OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH LATER
IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE SOUTHERN END FORMING UP A CLOSED 500 MB
LOW OVER THE DESERT SW AND NW MEXICO AROUND FRI. ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN DIVE SE FROM THE NW STATES WHICH WILL
OPEN UP THE CLOSED LOW AND PUSH IT EAST OVER TX THIS WEEKEND. THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS PROGRESSION OF TROUGHS WILL BE A MAJOR
CANADIAN COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE RGV LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY
THURS MORNING. THE POST FRONTAL COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
LATTER FORECAST PERIODS. MSL FIELDS ALSO INDICATE A STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE TROFFING PERSISTING ALONG
THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AFTER THE FROPA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
PERSISTENT SURFACE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN STEADY
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER MUCH OF THE BRO CWA WHICH WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN PLENTY OF LOW CLDS AND RAIN CHCS THROUGH DAY 7 AFTER THE
FRONT.

FREEZING TEMPS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY AT THIS TIME IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER SOME POINTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA COULD FLIRT
WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS THURS AND FRI MORNINGS.

THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF
THE UPCOMING EVENT. AM WARY OF BOTH MODELS WANTING TO WARM UP
TEMPS SERIOUSLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS BOTH OF THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN WARMING UP TEMPS
AFTER A FROPA WHEN THE LOWER ATMS LAYERS REMAIN SATURATED FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. SO WILL UNDERCUT MODEL TEMPS A BIT IN
THE LONGER TERM MAINTAINING A COOLER BIAS. OVERALL POPS WILL BE A
GENERAL 50/50 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE ECMWF HAS A DRIER
BIAS WITH THE GFS MEX MOS POPS MAINTAINING CHC POPS ALL THE WAY
THROUGH DAY 7.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY... COASTAL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO
PADRE ISLAND. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS IS FORECAST TONIGHT
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AMID MODERATE SEAS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE
VERY QUICKLY LATE WED/EARLY THURS AFTER THE FROPA. CONDITIONS WILL
BE SOLIDLY SCA BORDERING ON GALE CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND
GULF WATERS INTO THURS/THURS NIGHT. THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE A LITTLE ON FRI AS THE PGF WEAKENS A BIT. HOWEVER SCAS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOWER TX GULF WATERS INTO FRI.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ130-132-
     135-150-155.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/61





000
FXUS64 KBRO 021034
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
434 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...JET MAXIMUM IS WORKING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THAT TROUGH GIVING IT A KICK EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH WILL HELP
GET OUR WEATHER PATTERN MOVING A BIT. MEANWHILE SHALLOW COLD AIR IS
PILED UP ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL US DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA MADRES. BROADLY DIVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO REINFORCING COASTAL TROUGHING JUST
OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST.  AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PERSIST AND
IT WILL TAKE SOME PRETTY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TO BREAK
EVERYTHING UP.

TODAY...
AS A RESULT EXPECT WE WILL PRETTY WELL STAY CLOUDY AND
DRIZZLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WONT WARM UP MUCH...MAYBE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES
FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSE ENOUGH BY LATE
AFTERNOON TO POSSIBLY SHIFT OUR WINDS TO THE EAST AND OUR 850MB
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE IN TIME TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

TONIGHT...
THE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF IN A WAY TO GENERATE BROADLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH INCREASES LEE SURFACE
TROUGHING. THIS LEADS TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIGHT WINDS INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY FOG LOOKS LIKELY WITH DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE. IT WOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ENTIRELY AN ADVECTION FOG
EVENT HOWEVER WITH THICK CLOUD COVER LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCREASE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WHICH SHOULD HELP BREAK UP LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ALLOW FOR A
BREEZY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS SHOW STRONGER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OR SO OF
THE CWA AND THEY LIMIT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
LAND/SEA INTERFACE...WHICH WE SEE FREQUENTLY IN SUCH PATTERNS.
INHERITED FORECAST SHOWS THIS AND DIDNT ALTER MUCH.  850MB
SOUTHWESTERLIES DRY AND WARM THAT LAYER AND PUT A CAP ON ANY DEEP
CONVECTION DESPITE INCREASED LOW LAYER CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION. LOW CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND LONGER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND CONTINUED HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THERE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING THE MID 80S IN THE MID AND UPPER VALLEY. /68-JGG/

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...A LARGE AND ELONGATED
500 MB TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE ROCKIES ON TUES WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING EAST INTO WED. THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL THEN SHEAR OFF OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH LATER
IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE SOUTHERN END FORMING UP A CLOSED 500 MB
LOW OVER THE DESERT SW AND NW MEXICO AROUND FRI. ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN DIVE SE FROM THE NW STATES WHICH WILL
OPEN UP THE CLOSED LOW AND PUSH IT EAST OVER TX THIS WEEKEND. THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS PROGRESSION OF TROUGHS WILL BE A MAJOR
CANADIAN COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE RGV LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY
THURS MORNING. THE POST FRONTAL COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
LATTER FORECAST PERIODS. MSL FIELDS ALSO INDICATE A STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE TROFFING PERSISTING ALONG
THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AFTER THE FROPA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
PERSISTENT SURFACE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN STEADY
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER MUCH OF THE BRO CWA WHICH WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN PLENTY OF LOW CLDS AND RAIN CHCS THROUGH DAY 7 AFTER THE
FRONT.

FREEZING TEMPS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY AT THIS TIME IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER SOME POINTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA COULD FLIRT
WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS THURS AND FRI MORNINGS.

THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF
THE UPCOMING EVENT. AM WARY OF BOTH MODELS WANTING TO WARM UP
TEMPS SERIOUSLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS BOTH OF THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN WARMING UP TEMPS
AFTER A FROPA WHEN THE LOWER ATMS LAYERS REMAIN SATURATED FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. SO WILL UNDERCUT MODEL TEMPS A BIT IN
THE LONGER TERM MAINTAINING A COOLER BIAS. OVERALL POPS WILL BE A
GENERAL 50/50 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE ECMWF HAS A DRIER
BIAS WITH THE GFS MEX MOS POPS MAINTAINING CHC POPS ALL THE WAY
THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY... COASTAL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO
PADRE ISLAND. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS IS FORECAST TONIGHT
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AMID MODERATE SEAS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE
VERY QUICKLY LATE WED/EARLY THURS AFTER THE FROPA. CONDITIONS WILL
BE SOLIDLY SCA BORDERING ON GALE CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND
GULF WATERS INTO THURS/THURS NIGHT. THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE A LITTLE ON FRI AS THE PGF WEAKENS A BIT. HOWEVER SCAS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOWER TX GULF WATERS INTO FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  60  52  76  66 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          60  51  78  67 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            57  50  81  66 /  20  10  10  10
MCALLEN              56  49  84  66 /  20  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      61  51  85  65 /  20  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   62  55  71  65 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ130-132-
     135-150-155.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...67




000
FXUS64 KBRO 021034
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
434 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...JET MAXIMUM IS WORKING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THAT TROUGH GIVING IT A KICK EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH WILL HELP
GET OUR WEATHER PATTERN MOVING A BIT. MEANWHILE SHALLOW COLD AIR IS
PILED UP ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL US DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA MADRES. BROADLY DIVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO REINFORCING COASTAL TROUGHING JUST
OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST.  AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PERSIST AND
IT WILL TAKE SOME PRETTY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TO BREAK
EVERYTHING UP.

TODAY...
AS A RESULT EXPECT WE WILL PRETTY WELL STAY CLOUDY AND
DRIZZLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WONT WARM UP MUCH...MAYBE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES
FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSE ENOUGH BY LATE
AFTERNOON TO POSSIBLY SHIFT OUR WINDS TO THE EAST AND OUR 850MB
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE IN TIME TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

TONIGHT...
THE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF IN A WAY TO GENERATE BROADLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH INCREASES LEE SURFACE
TROUGHING. THIS LEADS TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIGHT WINDS INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY FOG LOOKS LIKELY WITH DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE. IT WOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ENTIRELY AN ADVECTION FOG
EVENT HOWEVER WITH THICK CLOUD COVER LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCREASE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WHICH SHOULD HELP BREAK UP LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ALLOW FOR A
BREEZY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS SHOW STRONGER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OR SO OF
THE CWA AND THEY LIMIT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
LAND/SEA INTERFACE...WHICH WE SEE FREQUENTLY IN SUCH PATTERNS.
INHERITED FORECAST SHOWS THIS AND DIDNT ALTER MUCH.  850MB
SOUTHWESTERLIES DRY AND WARM THAT LAYER AND PUT A CAP ON ANY DEEP
CONVECTION DESPITE INCREASED LOW LAYER CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION. LOW CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND LONGER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND CONTINUED HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THERE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING THE MID 80S IN THE MID AND UPPER VALLEY. /68-JGG/

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...A LARGE AND ELONGATED
500 MB TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE ROCKIES ON TUES WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING EAST INTO WED. THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL THEN SHEAR OFF OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH LATER
IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE SOUTHERN END FORMING UP A CLOSED 500 MB
LOW OVER THE DESERT SW AND NW MEXICO AROUND FRI. ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN DIVE SE FROM THE NW STATES WHICH WILL
OPEN UP THE CLOSED LOW AND PUSH IT EAST OVER TX THIS WEEKEND. THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS PROGRESSION OF TROUGHS WILL BE A MAJOR
CANADIAN COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE RGV LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY
THURS MORNING. THE POST FRONTAL COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
LATTER FORECAST PERIODS. MSL FIELDS ALSO INDICATE A STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE TROFFING PERSISTING ALONG
THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AFTER THE FROPA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
PERSISTENT SURFACE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN STEADY
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER MUCH OF THE BRO CWA WHICH WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN PLENTY OF LOW CLDS AND RAIN CHCS THROUGH DAY 7 AFTER THE
FRONT.

FREEZING TEMPS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY AT THIS TIME IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER SOME POINTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA COULD FLIRT
WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS THURS AND FRI MORNINGS.

THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF
THE UPCOMING EVENT. AM WARY OF BOTH MODELS WANTING TO WARM UP
TEMPS SERIOUSLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS BOTH OF THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN WARMING UP TEMPS
AFTER A FROPA WHEN THE LOWER ATMS LAYERS REMAIN SATURATED FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. SO WILL UNDERCUT MODEL TEMPS A BIT IN
THE LONGER TERM MAINTAINING A COOLER BIAS. OVERALL POPS WILL BE A
GENERAL 50/50 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE ECMWF HAS A DRIER
BIAS WITH THE GFS MEX MOS POPS MAINTAINING CHC POPS ALL THE WAY
THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY... COASTAL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO
PADRE ISLAND. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS IS FORECAST TONIGHT
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AMID MODERATE SEAS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE
VERY QUICKLY LATE WED/EARLY THURS AFTER THE FROPA. CONDITIONS WILL
BE SOLIDLY SCA BORDERING ON GALE CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND
GULF WATERS INTO THURS/THURS NIGHT. THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE A LITTLE ON FRI AS THE PGF WEAKENS A BIT. HOWEVER SCAS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOWER TX GULF WATERS INTO FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  60  52  76  66 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          60  51  78  67 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            57  50  81  66 /  20  10  10  10
MCALLEN              56  49  84  66 /  20  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      61  51  85  65 /  20  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   62  55  71  65 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ130-132-
     135-150-155.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...67





000
FXUS64 KBRO 020438 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1038 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AREAWIDE AT AROUND 300
FEET...WITH LOWERED VIS DOWN TO GENERALLY 2 TO 3SM. LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
MONDAY. LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MODEST NORTH WINDS AT THE SFC QUICKLY SWITCHING
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WITHIN 1000 FEET OF THE SFC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...FOR A SECOND DAY IN A
ROW...MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE WINNING THE BATTLE AND KEEPING A WINTER-
LIKE (VALLEY-STYLE) DAY FOR THE REGION...WITH CONTINUED CHILL
HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND RANCHLANDS WHERE 2 PM
TEMPERATURES WERE STILL STRUGGLING JUST ABOVE 50.  THAT
SAID...BREAKS AND SOME LIFTING CEILINGS WERE ENCROACHING ON THE RIO
GRANDE AND WITH A WARM ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE COLD DOME TEMPERATURES
BECOME A TRICKY PROPOSITION.  HAVE BEEN MONITORING AND ADJUSTING
THROUGH THE DAY AND NOW HAVE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE MID/UPPER VALLEY
POPULATION...AND AROUND 60 IN THE LOWER VALLEY AS PEAK HEATING UPON
US. ACROSS THE JIM HOGG TO KING RANCHLANDS OF KENEDY...TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. FOR THE COAST...ONE LAST HIGH
TIDE OF SURF TOWARD THE DUNES THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT WILL BE IT
WITH SWELLS GRADUALLY TAPERING DOWN. WILL LET COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT EXPIRE AT 3 PM. A GREAT DAY FOR EXPERIENCED SURFERS...SUCH
DAYS DON`T COME AROUND THAT OFTEN.

WHICH BRINGS US TO THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NAM/SREF CONTINUE IN THE
COOL/COLD CAMP FOR ONE MORE DAY WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE SOUP
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. FOR MONDAY...THE THIRD
DAY IN A ROW...MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE UP TO 20 DEGREES ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.  AND FOR A THIRD DAY IN A ROW...WE`LL BE THROWING OUT
THE BLENDS AND GOING VERY CLOSELY WITH THE NAM/SREF CONCEPT.  AS
MENTIONED IN THIS MORNING`S UPDATE...A REINFORCING BUBBLE OF GREAT
PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY COURTESY OF TWO FEATURES:  UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WHIPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  EACH HELP BUILD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GULF TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SUPPORT THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE RIDGE.  THIS
RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH ALREADY CHILLY AIR FROM LAND THROUGH THE
SHALLOW NEARSHORE WATERS TO ENHANCE THE **NORTHWEST** SURFACE
PATTERN WHICH HAS BEEN KEY TO KEEPING THE CHILL IN THE AIR.

THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH LACK THE ABILITY TO HANDLE MESOSCALE SURFACE
DENSITY DIFFERENCES...AS SHOWN THE PAST TWO DAYS...WERE TOSSED IN
FAVORED OF THE NAM FOR THIS PACKAGE. EVEN THE NAM FORECAST IS A BIT
TRICKY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SINCE THE LAST VESTIGE OF
THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL BE FIGHTING BOTH EARLY MARCH SUNSHINE AND
INTRUSION OF VERY WARM SUBTROPICAL ATMOSPHERE...AS SHOWN BY PRESENCE
OF 591 DM HEIGHT CONTOUR JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER: REST OF TODAY...WATCHING A POCKET OF
PARTIAL TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE BY 3 PM IN
HIDALGO COUNTY...AS WELL AS LIFTING CEILINGS AND SOME BREAKS UP
RIVER NEAR FALCON DAM. IF FULL SUNSHINE REACHES MCALLEN...THEY COULD
SHOOT UP TO 68 BEFORE THE LOWERING SUN...SO FOR NOW HAVE NUDGED TO
THE MID 60S. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...NO CHANCE FOR SUCH A BREAK SO
HIGHS WILL LEVEL OUT IN THE MID 50S FROM HEBBRONVILLE TO SARITA AND
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN HARLINGEN/BROWNSVILLE. HAVE DROPPED MOST
OF THE MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

FOR TONIGHT...THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ARRIVAL OF RIDGE `NOSE` WILL
REFORM LOW STRATUS SOON AFTER SUNSET...AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
STEADILY INTO THE 50S IN THE WARMER AREAS...AND BACK INTO THE MID TO
HIGH 40S IN THE COOLER AREAS...BY MIDNIGHT. WITH HUMIDITY NEAR 100
PERCENT AND SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD KEEP TRUE DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE AS VISIBILITY DID FALL NEAR ONE-HALF MILE TOWARD THE
COAST EARLIER TODAY.

MONDAY BEGINS MURKY AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN SO THROUGH NOON IN THE
VALLEY BEFORE CEILINGS BEGIN TO LIFT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY CLIMB.  ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...THE
MURKINESS MAY WELL HOLD IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY...AND NO REASON TO
BUCK RECENT TRENDS. HENCE...NEARLY IDENTICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO
TODAY`S VERIFYING NUMBERS WITH MAINLY 50S FOR THE RANCHLANDS INCHING
TO 60-63 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

MONDAY NIGHT COULD SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH
FINALLY DISSOLVING THE WINDS MAY LAY DOWN COMPLETELY. AT THE SAME
TIME...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN MIGRATING WEST FROM THE
DISSIPATING COASTAL TROUGH AND WITH PLENTY OF WARM MOIST AIR JUST
OFF THE SURFACE AND VERY DRY AIR ARRIVING ON DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ABOVE 850 MB (MEAN RH IN THE 850-300 MB LAYER FALLS TO 5
PERCENT) THE STAGE IS SET FOR A SOCK-IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WITH NO MORE COLD AIR TO
DRAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY AND COULD RISE A SHADE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE PERFECT SETUP FOR DENSE FOG.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH
A BLAST OF COLD ARCTIC AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH TX WED
MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTH TX WED NIGHT. AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WED NIGHT...A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S./NORTHWEST MEXICO PROVIDES A WINDOW FOR
CONVECTION...LIKELY ELEVATED...WED NIGHT AS THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS DEVELOP THURSDAY
WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLD
AND WET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A RESULT.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SWELL PERIOD CONTINUES AT 7-8
SECONDS BUT SEA HEIGHTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING...NOW DOWN TO 5 FEET OR
SO. EXPECT THIS TREND TO STABILIZE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH 3-5
FOOT SEAS HOLDING WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY NOSES IN...THEN OUT...OF THE WATERS. HAVE
NUDGED DOWN WIND AND WAVES MONDAY NIGHT OWING TO THE SLOWER
DEPARTURE OF THE COLD PATTERN.  UNFORTUNATELY...THE LIGHTER
WINDS/SLIGHT SEAS WILL COME WITH POTENTIALLY VERY DENSE FOG MAKING
FOR A DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE START TO THE FISHING DAY ON
TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE LIKELY.
VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST THURSDAY
AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AND GALE
WATCHES/WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64




000
FXUS64 KBRO 020438 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1038 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AREAWIDE AT AROUND 300
FEET...WITH LOWERED VIS DOWN TO GENERALLY 2 TO 3SM. LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
MONDAY. LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MODEST NORTH WINDS AT THE SFC QUICKLY SWITCHING
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WITHIN 1000 FEET OF THE SFC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...FOR A SECOND DAY IN A
ROW...MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE WINNING THE BATTLE AND KEEPING A WINTER-
LIKE (VALLEY-STYLE) DAY FOR THE REGION...WITH CONTINUED CHILL
HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND RANCHLANDS WHERE 2 PM
TEMPERATURES WERE STILL STRUGGLING JUST ABOVE 50.  THAT
SAID...BREAKS AND SOME LIFTING CEILINGS WERE ENCROACHING ON THE RIO
GRANDE AND WITH A WARM ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE COLD DOME TEMPERATURES
BECOME A TRICKY PROPOSITION.  HAVE BEEN MONITORING AND ADJUSTING
THROUGH THE DAY AND NOW HAVE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE MID/UPPER VALLEY
POPULATION...AND AROUND 60 IN THE LOWER VALLEY AS PEAK HEATING UPON
US. ACROSS THE JIM HOGG TO KING RANCHLANDS OF KENEDY...TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. FOR THE COAST...ONE LAST HIGH
TIDE OF SURF TOWARD THE DUNES THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT WILL BE IT
WITH SWELLS GRADUALLY TAPERING DOWN. WILL LET COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT EXPIRE AT 3 PM. A GREAT DAY FOR EXPERIENCED SURFERS...SUCH
DAYS DON`T COME AROUND THAT OFTEN.

WHICH BRINGS US TO THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NAM/SREF CONTINUE IN THE
COOL/COLD CAMP FOR ONE MORE DAY WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE SOUP
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. FOR MONDAY...THE THIRD
DAY IN A ROW...MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE UP TO 20 DEGREES ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.  AND FOR A THIRD DAY IN A ROW...WE`LL BE THROWING OUT
THE BLENDS AND GOING VERY CLOSELY WITH THE NAM/SREF CONCEPT.  AS
MENTIONED IN THIS MORNING`S UPDATE...A REINFORCING BUBBLE OF GREAT
PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY COURTESY OF TWO FEATURES:  UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WHIPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  EACH HELP BUILD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GULF TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SUPPORT THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE RIDGE.  THIS
RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH ALREADY CHILLY AIR FROM LAND THROUGH THE
SHALLOW NEARSHORE WATERS TO ENHANCE THE **NORTHWEST** SURFACE
PATTERN WHICH HAS BEEN KEY TO KEEPING THE CHILL IN THE AIR.

THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH LACK THE ABILITY TO HANDLE MESOSCALE SURFACE
DENSITY DIFFERENCES...AS SHOWN THE PAST TWO DAYS...WERE TOSSED IN
FAVORED OF THE NAM FOR THIS PACKAGE. EVEN THE NAM FORECAST IS A BIT
TRICKY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SINCE THE LAST VESTIGE OF
THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL BE FIGHTING BOTH EARLY MARCH SUNSHINE AND
INTRUSION OF VERY WARM SUBTROPICAL ATMOSPHERE...AS SHOWN BY PRESENCE
OF 591 DM HEIGHT CONTOUR JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER: REST OF TODAY...WATCHING A POCKET OF
PARTIAL TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE BY 3 PM IN
HIDALGO COUNTY...AS WELL AS LIFTING CEILINGS AND SOME BREAKS UP
RIVER NEAR FALCON DAM. IF FULL SUNSHINE REACHES MCALLEN...THEY COULD
SHOOT UP TO 68 BEFORE THE LOWERING SUN...SO FOR NOW HAVE NUDGED TO
THE MID 60S. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...NO CHANCE FOR SUCH A BREAK SO
HIGHS WILL LEVEL OUT IN THE MID 50S FROM HEBBRONVILLE TO SARITA AND
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN HARLINGEN/BROWNSVILLE. HAVE DROPPED MOST
OF THE MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

FOR TONIGHT...THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ARRIVAL OF RIDGE `NOSE` WILL
REFORM LOW STRATUS SOON AFTER SUNSET...AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
STEADILY INTO THE 50S IN THE WARMER AREAS...AND BACK INTO THE MID TO
HIGH 40S IN THE COOLER AREAS...BY MIDNIGHT. WITH HUMIDITY NEAR 100
PERCENT AND SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD KEEP TRUE DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE AS VISIBILITY DID FALL NEAR ONE-HALF MILE TOWARD THE
COAST EARLIER TODAY.

MONDAY BEGINS MURKY AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN SO THROUGH NOON IN THE
VALLEY BEFORE CEILINGS BEGIN TO LIFT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY CLIMB.  ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...THE
MURKINESS MAY WELL HOLD IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY...AND NO REASON TO
BUCK RECENT TRENDS. HENCE...NEARLY IDENTICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO
TODAY`S VERIFYING NUMBERS WITH MAINLY 50S FOR THE RANCHLANDS INCHING
TO 60-63 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

MONDAY NIGHT COULD SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH
FINALLY DISSOLVING THE WINDS MAY LAY DOWN COMPLETELY. AT THE SAME
TIME...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN MIGRATING WEST FROM THE
DISSIPATING COASTAL TROUGH AND WITH PLENTY OF WARM MOIST AIR JUST
OFF THE SURFACE AND VERY DRY AIR ARRIVING ON DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ABOVE 850 MB (MEAN RH IN THE 850-300 MB LAYER FALLS TO 5
PERCENT) THE STAGE IS SET FOR A SOCK-IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WITH NO MORE COLD AIR TO
DRAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY AND COULD RISE A SHADE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE PERFECT SETUP FOR DENSE FOG.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH
A BLAST OF COLD ARCTIC AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH TX WED
MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTH TX WED NIGHT. AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WED NIGHT...A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S./NORTHWEST MEXICO PROVIDES A WINDOW FOR
CONVECTION...LIKELY ELEVATED...WED NIGHT AS THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS DEVELOP THURSDAY
WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLD
AND WET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A RESULT.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SWELL PERIOD CONTINUES AT 7-8
SECONDS BUT SEA HEIGHTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING...NOW DOWN TO 5 FEET OR
SO. EXPECT THIS TREND TO STABILIZE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH 3-5
FOOT SEAS HOLDING WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY NOSES IN...THEN OUT...OF THE WATERS. HAVE
NUDGED DOWN WIND AND WAVES MONDAY NIGHT OWING TO THE SLOWER
DEPARTURE OF THE COLD PATTERN.  UNFORTUNATELY...THE LIGHTER
WINDS/SLIGHT SEAS WILL COME WITH POTENTIALLY VERY DENSE FOG MAKING
FOR A DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE START TO THE FISHING DAY ON
TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE LIKELY.
VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST THURSDAY
AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AND GALE
WATCHES/WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64





000
FXUS64 KBRO 012102
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
302 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...FOR A SECOND DAY IN A
ROW...MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE WINNING THE BATTLE AND KEEPING A WINTER-
LIKE (VALLEY-STYLE) DAY FOR THE REGION...WITH CONTINUED CHILL
HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND RANCHLANDS WHERE 2 PM
TEMPERATURES WERE STILL STRUGGLING JUST ABOVE 50.  THAT
SAID...BREAKS AND SOME LIFTING CEILINGS WERE ENCROACHING ON THE RIO
GRANDE AND WITH A WARM ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE COLD DOME TEMPERATURES
BECOME A TRICKY PROPOSITION.  HAVE BEEN MONITORING AND ADJUSTING
THROUGH THE DAY AND NOW HAVE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE MID/UPPER VALLEY
POPULATION...AND AROUND 60 IN THE LOWER VALLEY AS PEAK HEATING UPON
US. ACROSS THE JIM HOGG TO KING RANCHLANDS OF KENEDY...TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. FOR THE COAST...ONE LAST HIGH
TIDE OF SURF TOWARD THE DUNES THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT WILL BE IT
WITH SWELLS GRADUALLY TAPERING DOWN. WILL LET COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT EXPIRE AT 3 PM. A GREAT DAY FOR EXPERIENCED SURFERS...SUCH
DAYS DON`T COME AROUND THAT OFTEN.

WHICH BRINGS US TO THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NAM/SREF CONTINUE IN THE
COOL/COLD CAMP FOR ONE MORE DAY WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE SOUP
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. FOR MONDAY...THE THIRD
DAY IN A ROW...MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE UP TO 20 DEGREES ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.  AND FOR A THIRD DAY IN A ROW...WE`LL BE THROWING OUT
THE BLENDS AND GOING VERY CLOSELY WITH THE NAM/SREF CONCEPT.  AS
MENTIONED IN THIS MORNING`S UPDATE...A REINFORCING BUBBLE OF GREAT
PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY COURTESY OF TWO FEATURES:  UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WHIPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  EACH HELP BUILD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GULF TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SUPPORT THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE RIDGE.  THIS
RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH ALREADY CHILLY AIR FROM LAND THROUGH THE
SHALLOW NEARSHORE WATERS TO ENHANCE THE **NORTHWEST** SURFACE
PATTERN WHICH HAS BEEN KEY TO KEEPING THE CHILL IN THE AIR.

THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH LACK THE ABILITY TO HANDLE MESOSCALE SURFACE
DENSITY DIFFERENCES...AS SHOWN THE PAST TWO DAYS...WERE TOSSED IN
FAVORED OF THE NAM FOR THIS PACKAGE. EVEN THE NAM FORECAST IS A BIT
TRICKY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SINCE THE LAST VESTIGE OF
THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL BE FIGHTING BOTH EARLY MARCH SUNSHINE AND
INTRUSION OF VERY WARM SUBTROPICAL ATMOSPHERE...AS SHOWN BY PRESENCE
OF 591 DM HEIGHT CONTOUR JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER: REST OF TODAY...WATCHING A POCKET OF
PARTIAL TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE BY 3 PM IN
HIDALGO COUNTY...AS WELL AS LIFTING CEILINGS AND SOME BREAKS UP
RIVER NEAR FALCON DAM. IF FULL SUNSHINE REACHES MCALLEN...THEY COULD
SHOOT UP TO 68 BEFORE THE LOWERING SUN...SO FOR NOW HAVE NUDGED TO
THE MID 60S. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...NO CHANCE FOR SUCH A BREAK SO
HIGHS WILL LEVEL OUT IN THE MID 50S FROM HEBBRONVILLE TO SARITA AND
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN HARLINGEN/BROWNSVILLE. HAVE DROPPED MOST
OF THE MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

FOR TONIGHT...THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ARRIVAL OF RIDGE `NOSE` WILL
REFORM LOW STRATUS SOON AFTER SUNSET...AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
STEADILY INTO THE 50S IN THE WARMER AREAS...AND BACK INTO THE MID TO
HIGH 40S IN THE COOLER AREAS...BY MIDNIGHT. WITH HUMIDITY NEAR 100
PERCENT AND SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD KEEP TRUE DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE AS VISIBILITY DID FALL NEAR ONE-HALF MILE TOWARD THE
COAST EARLIER TODAY.

MONDAY BEGINS MURKY AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN SO THROUGH NOON IN THE
VALLEY BEFORE CEILINGS BEGIN TO LIFT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY CLIMB.  ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...THE
MURKINESS MAY WELL HOLD IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY...AND NO REASON TO
BUCK RECENT TRENDS. HENCE...NEARLY IDENTICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO
TODAY`S VERIFYING NUMBERS WITH MAINLY 50S FOR THE RANCHLANDS INCHING
TO 60-63 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

MONDAY NIGHT COULD SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH
FINALLY DISSOLVING THE WINDS MAY LAY DOWN COMPLETELY. AT THE SAME
TIME...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN MIGRATING WEST FROM THE
DISSIPATING COASTAL TROUGH AND WITH PLENTY OF WARM MOIST AIR JUST
OFF THE SURFACE AND VERY DRY AIR ARRIVING ON DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ABOVE 850 MB (MEAN RH IN THE 850-300 MB LAYER FALLS TO 5
PERCENT) THE STAGE IS SET FOR A SOCK-IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WITH NO MORE COLD AIR TO
DRAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY AND COULD RISE A SHADE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE PERFECT SETUP FOR DENSE FOG.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH
A BLAST OF COLD ARCTIC AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH TX WED
MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTH TX WED NIGHT. AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WED NIGHT...A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S./NORTHWEST MEXICO PROVIDES A WINDOW FOR
CONVECTION...LIKELY ELEVATED...WED NIGHT AS THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS DEVELOP THURSDAY
WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLD
AND WET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A RESULT.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SWELL PERIOD CONTINUES AT 7-8
SECONDS BUT SEA HEIGHTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING...NOW DOWN TO 5 FEET OR
SO. EXPECT THIS TREND TO STABILIZE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH 3-5
FOOT SEAS HOLDING WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY NOSES IN...THEN OUT...OF THE WATERS. HAVE
NUDGED DOWN WIND AND WAVES MONDAY NIGHT OWING TO THE SLOWER
DEPARTURE OF THE COLD PATTERN.  UNFORTUNATELY...THE LIGHTER
WINDS/SLIGHT SEAS WILL COME WITH POTENTIALLY VERY DENSE FOG MAKING
FOR A DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE START TO THE FISHING DAY ON
TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE LIKELY.
VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST THURSDAY
AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AND GALE
WATCHES/WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  52  62  56  76 /  20  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          52  62  56  77 /  10  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            50  62  54  80 /  10  20  10  10
MCALLEN              48  62  56  83 /  10  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      47  62  57  86 /  10  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   52  61  58  72 /  20  20  10  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

52/61




000
FXUS64 KBRO 012102
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
302 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...FOR A SECOND DAY IN A
ROW...MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE WINNING THE BATTLE AND KEEPING A WINTER-
LIKE (VALLEY-STYLE) DAY FOR THE REGION...WITH CONTINUED CHILL
HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND RANCHLANDS WHERE 2 PM
TEMPERATURES WERE STILL STRUGGLING JUST ABOVE 50.  THAT
SAID...BREAKS AND SOME LIFTING CEILINGS WERE ENCROACHING ON THE RIO
GRANDE AND WITH A WARM ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE COLD DOME TEMPERATURES
BECOME A TRICKY PROPOSITION.  HAVE BEEN MONITORING AND ADJUSTING
THROUGH THE DAY AND NOW HAVE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE MID/UPPER VALLEY
POPULATION...AND AROUND 60 IN THE LOWER VALLEY AS PEAK HEATING UPON
US. ACROSS THE JIM HOGG TO KING RANCHLANDS OF KENEDY...TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. FOR THE COAST...ONE LAST HIGH
TIDE OF SURF TOWARD THE DUNES THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT WILL BE IT
WITH SWELLS GRADUALLY TAPERING DOWN. WILL LET COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT EXPIRE AT 3 PM. A GREAT DAY FOR EXPERIENCED SURFERS...SUCH
DAYS DON`T COME AROUND THAT OFTEN.

WHICH BRINGS US TO THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NAM/SREF CONTINUE IN THE
COOL/COLD CAMP FOR ONE MORE DAY WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE SOUP
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. FOR MONDAY...THE THIRD
DAY IN A ROW...MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE UP TO 20 DEGREES ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.  AND FOR A THIRD DAY IN A ROW...WE`LL BE THROWING OUT
THE BLENDS AND GOING VERY CLOSELY WITH THE NAM/SREF CONCEPT.  AS
MENTIONED IN THIS MORNING`S UPDATE...A REINFORCING BUBBLE OF GREAT
PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY COURTESY OF TWO FEATURES:  UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WHIPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  EACH HELP BUILD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GULF TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SUPPORT THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE RIDGE.  THIS
RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH ALREADY CHILLY AIR FROM LAND THROUGH THE
SHALLOW NEARSHORE WATERS TO ENHANCE THE **NORTHWEST** SURFACE
PATTERN WHICH HAS BEEN KEY TO KEEPING THE CHILL IN THE AIR.

THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH LACK THE ABILITY TO HANDLE MESOSCALE SURFACE
DENSITY DIFFERENCES...AS SHOWN THE PAST TWO DAYS...WERE TOSSED IN
FAVORED OF THE NAM FOR THIS PACKAGE. EVEN THE NAM FORECAST IS A BIT
TRICKY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SINCE THE LAST VESTIGE OF
THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL BE FIGHTING BOTH EARLY MARCH SUNSHINE AND
INTRUSION OF VERY WARM SUBTROPICAL ATMOSPHERE...AS SHOWN BY PRESENCE
OF 591 DM HEIGHT CONTOUR JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER: REST OF TODAY...WATCHING A POCKET OF
PARTIAL TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE BY 3 PM IN
HIDALGO COUNTY...AS WELL AS LIFTING CEILINGS AND SOME BREAKS UP
RIVER NEAR FALCON DAM. IF FULL SUNSHINE REACHES MCALLEN...THEY COULD
SHOOT UP TO 68 BEFORE THE LOWERING SUN...SO FOR NOW HAVE NUDGED TO
THE MID 60S. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...NO CHANCE FOR SUCH A BREAK SO
HIGHS WILL LEVEL OUT IN THE MID 50S FROM HEBBRONVILLE TO SARITA AND
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN HARLINGEN/BROWNSVILLE. HAVE DROPPED MOST
OF THE MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

FOR TONIGHT...THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ARRIVAL OF RIDGE `NOSE` WILL
REFORM LOW STRATUS SOON AFTER SUNSET...AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
STEADILY INTO THE 50S IN THE WARMER AREAS...AND BACK INTO THE MID TO
HIGH 40S IN THE COOLER AREAS...BY MIDNIGHT. WITH HUMIDITY NEAR 100
PERCENT AND SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD KEEP TRUE DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE AS VISIBILITY DID FALL NEAR ONE-HALF MILE TOWARD THE
COAST EARLIER TODAY.

MONDAY BEGINS MURKY AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN SO THROUGH NOON IN THE
VALLEY BEFORE CEILINGS BEGIN TO LIFT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY CLIMB.  ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...THE
MURKINESS MAY WELL HOLD IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY...AND NO REASON TO
BUCK RECENT TRENDS. HENCE...NEARLY IDENTICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO
TODAY`S VERIFYING NUMBERS WITH MAINLY 50S FOR THE RANCHLANDS INCHING
TO 60-63 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

MONDAY NIGHT COULD SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH
FINALLY DISSOLVING THE WINDS MAY LAY DOWN COMPLETELY. AT THE SAME
TIME...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN MIGRATING WEST FROM THE
DISSIPATING COASTAL TROUGH AND WITH PLENTY OF WARM MOIST AIR JUST
OFF THE SURFACE AND VERY DRY AIR ARRIVING ON DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ABOVE 850 MB (MEAN RH IN THE 850-300 MB LAYER FALLS TO 5
PERCENT) THE STAGE IS SET FOR A SOCK-IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WITH NO MORE COLD AIR TO
DRAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY AND COULD RISE A SHADE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE PERFECT SETUP FOR DENSE FOG.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH
A BLAST OF COLD ARCTIC AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH TX WED
MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTH TX WED NIGHT. AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WED NIGHT...A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S./NORTHWEST MEXICO PROVIDES A WINDOW FOR
CONVECTION...LIKELY ELEVATED...WED NIGHT AS THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS DEVELOP THURSDAY
WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLD
AND WET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A RESULT.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SWELL PERIOD CONTINUES AT 7-8
SECONDS BUT SEA HEIGHTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING...NOW DOWN TO 5 FEET OR
SO. EXPECT THIS TREND TO STABILIZE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH 3-5
FOOT SEAS HOLDING WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY NOSES IN...THEN OUT...OF THE WATERS. HAVE
NUDGED DOWN WIND AND WAVES MONDAY NIGHT OWING TO THE SLOWER
DEPARTURE OF THE COLD PATTERN.  UNFORTUNATELY...THE LIGHTER
WINDS/SLIGHT SEAS WILL COME WITH POTENTIALLY VERY DENSE FOG MAKING
FOR A DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE START TO THE FISHING DAY ON
TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE LIKELY.
VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST THURSDAY
AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AND GALE
WATCHES/WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  52  62  56  76 /  20  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          52  62  56  77 /  10  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            50  62  54  80 /  10  20  10  10
MCALLEN              48  62  56  83 /  10  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      47  62  57  86 /  10  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   52  61  58  72 /  20  20  10  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

52/61





000
FXUS64 KBRO 011804 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1204 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST /18Z/ AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON FORECAST COULD BE A LITTLE
TRICKY...AS IMMEDIATELY AFTER RELEASING THE FORECAST HAVE NOTED
BREAKS IN THE IFR OVERCAST HEADED FOR THE MID VALLEY...AND PERHAPS
BRIGHTENING SKIES IN THE LOWER VALLEY AS WELL. FOR NOW...HELD IFR
CEILINGS ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITY IN THE KBRO/KHRL AREA WHERE
LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG HOLDING ON...WHILE
LIFTED CEILINGS TO LOW MVFR...1500 FEET...AT KMFE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL LIFTING BETWEEN 19 AND 22Z SO WILL BE
ON THE LOOKOUT FOR POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENTS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE IFR CEILINGS AND IFR TO LIFR VISIBLITY TO
RETURN OVERNIGHT AS REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH NOSES THROUGH SOUTH
TEXAS AND HELPS REINFORCE OFFSHORE TROUGH WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TIGHTEN INVERSION...IN LINE WITH THE MORE
ACCURATE NAM-12. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...EXPECT LIFR/IFR CEILING
AND VISIBILITY TO HANG TOUGH THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...AND WHILE
BREAKS MAY ATTEMPT TO SNEAK IN BY 18Z NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD
NOW.

AS FOR FOG DENSITY...AT FIRST GLANCE THIS MORNING APPEARED DENSE
FOG COULD BE A SLAM DUNK BUT WITH THE REINFORCING HIGH AND
NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECT NEAR-DENSE CONDITIONS BUT HAVE HELD AT 1/2
MILE IN THE LOWER VALLEY AND 1 MILE KMFE...SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.
52/BSG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...FEBRUARY CLOSED LIKE A COLD LION...AND MARCH IS
CERTAINLY IS COMING IN LIKE ONE RELATIVE TO WHAT OUR TEMPERATURE
AND SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD BE. COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
ENHANCE LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW UNDERNEATH THE COLD DOME THAT SETTLED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH NOSE OF SURFACE
HIGH LOCKED DOWN ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS SEE ONLY MARGINAL
MODERATION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. NAM-12 AND OTHER MESOSCALE
MODELS CONTINUE TO DESTROY THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE THIS MORNING IN
HANDLING THE RAW CHILLINESS...SO NO REASON TO DEVIATE AND HAVE
REPOPULATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH THE COLDER VALUES...NUDGED
A BIT LOWER BASED ON EXPECTATION FOR LIMITED CLOUD DECK LIFTING
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER VALLEY.

NEW FORECAST HAS AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...BUT DID POKE
A COUPLE OF 60+ AREAS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IN STARR COUNTY OWING
TO THE NAM`S TIGHT WARMING GRADIENT...WHICH LOOKS TOO OPTIMISTIC
BUT PERHAPS REALISTIC IF SURFACE WINDS CAN BACK JUST A LITTLE
TOWARD THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.

I`VE ALSO ADJUSTED THE OVERNIGHT VALUES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. IN
THE BIG PICTURE...CALIFORNIA/NEVADA TROUGH HAS SLOWED DOWN WHICH
HAS PUMPED UP THE SUBTROPICAL 500 MB RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN
ROCKIES. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE SLIDES THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISIPPI VALLEY BY
MONDAY MORNING. WHAT DOES THIS HAVE TO DO WITH THE RGV? PLENTY.
THAT UPPER CONVERGENT/CONFLUENT AREA BRINGS A REINFORCING SHOT OF
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING...WHOSE `NOSE`
WILL EXTEND DOWN THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS AND ALONG THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE. THIS ENSURES A MINOR RE-COOLING THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY START TO THE
WORK WEEK. EXPECT TO SEE DRAMATIC CHANGES TO MONDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WHICH CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SPRING /UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80/ BUT WILL MORE LIKELY BE MIRED IN THE RAW CHILL
FOR YET ANOTHER DAY.

THAT LION IS PROVING VERY STUBBORN!
52/BSG

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DIPPED BELOW 6
FEET WELL OFFSHORE WHERE SWELL HAS BEEN MOST INFLUENTIAL. THAT
SWELL BEGAN TO DROP AS WELL...NOW DOWN TO AN 8 SECOND PERIOD.
EXPECT BENIGN CONDITIONS...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL
DENSE FOG...INTO MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE NORTH WINDS WILL GET A
BOOST BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY OR CAUTION LEVELS WITH
SEAS CONTINUING TO DIP.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WARM MOIST AIR WL CONTINUE
TO OVERRUN SHALLOW COOL AIR. THE RESULT WL BE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE...AND ALSO A THICK STRATUS DECK WITH AREAS OF FOG. A
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AGAIN BY THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE MID CA COAST WHILE A WEST TO EAST FLOW IS IN PLACE IN THE
MID LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE COASTAL
TROUGH IS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE GULF WATERS WHILE THE CANADIAN
HIGH WRAPS AROUND IT WITH A NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA. A VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
GULF WATERS AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE VALLEY...BUT IT
REMAINS LIGHT. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN THICK IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN
THE SHORT TERM...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER CA COAST WILL SINK
FARTHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND A REBUILDING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

TODAY...CONTINUED CLOUDY AND COOL WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. TONIGHT...THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTING EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S. RECONSTITUTED HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SEND A WEAK REINFORCING AIR MASS
SOUTH...MAINTAINING NORTH WINDS A BIT LONGER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WILL HELP REESTABLISH A SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL FORECASTING A STEADY WARM UP UNTIL A MID WEEK COLD FRONT
PLUNGES US INTO CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER ONCE AGAIN.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST MEXICAN COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO TO PRODUCE A BREEZY/WARM/WINDY DAY TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 35 MPH REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. SOUTHWESTERLY 700/850MB WINDS WILL DRY AND WARM OFF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND MIX INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AMID PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES HELPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL POSITION ITSELF TO
CREATE MORE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING AND BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING WILL FORM IN THE LEE OF THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS...SHIFTING OUR WINDS MORE TO THE EAST. A FEW
SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT UNDER A VERY STRONG TERRAIN INDUCED
RESIDUAL INVERSION BUT OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES SHARPLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
RESULTING COMBINATION OF UPPER CONVERGENCE FORCES A 1035 MB HIGH
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US WHICH USES COLD AIR DAMMING PROCESSES TO
SEND AN AIRMASS...SOURCED NEAR THE POLES...SOUTHWARD ACROSS TEXAS.
THE RESULTING ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THERE
REMAINS AT LEAST SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES IN ACTUAL FRONTAL
TIMING...BUT FOR THE FORECAST CONTINUED TO BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN
THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS DUE TO THE TENDENCY FOR SUCH
SYSTEMS TO MOVE FASTER THAN MODELED AMID THE LOWER VERTICAL
RESOLUTION OF GLOBAL MODELS AND THE PREEXISTING TROUGHING OVER THE
AREA...SO AT LEAST IN THE LOWEST 3000 TO 5000 FT IT WILL FACE LITTLE
RESISTANCE.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
STARTLING DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS IT ARRIVES. THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO CALL FOR HIGHS APPROACHING THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE PLUNGING INTO THE MID TO LOWER 40S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND
CHILLS ARE IN THE 30S AREA WIDE...AND AS THIS SYSTEM COMES WITHIN
VIEW OF THE NAM AND ITS BETTER HANDLING OF ARCTIC AIR MASSES... EXPECT
WE MAY NEED TO GO LOWER WITH THE TEMPERATURES. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND COASTAL TROUGHING NEAR THE SURFACE AMID CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM REBOUNDING ABOVE 50 DEGREES ON
THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF ALSO CONTINUE TO POSITION SOUTH TEXAS IN A
DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT ON THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A STRONG
SPEED MAX TO THE EAST OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING PARENT TROUGH. AT
THE SAME TIME A STRONG OVERRUNNING PATTERN IS APPARENT IN THE
800/700MB LAYER SO RAISED RAIN CHANCES AND KEPT A PERSISTENT
MENTION OF DRIZZLE.

CONTINUED TO CARRY DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS GIVEN THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS...THIS PUTS DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITH
PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THE COLUMN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY
DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 50 TO 100 MB OF ATMOSPHERE THAT MIGHT BE
PRIME FOR WET BULB COOLING IF ENOUGH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. WET
BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES...EVEN CALCULATED TO OUR LOWER FORECAST
VALUES ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING BUT ITS CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP AT
LEAST SOME EYE ON FOR FREEZING RAIN IF THE AIRMASS IS ESPECIALLY
COLDER THAN ADVERTISED.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE UPPER JET MAX MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
BUT RELATIVELY ROBUST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A FEW RIPPLES SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP COASTAL TROUGHING IN THE AREA. KEPT RELATIVELY
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE AND KEPT RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES
HUGGED TO THE COASTLINE BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS
850MB WINDS STRENGTHEN AS THE MAIN TROUGH/SEMI CLOSED LOW BEGINS
ADVANCING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SFC CONVERGENCE/COASTAL TROUGHING
INCREASES AND GFS/ECMWF SHOW GOOD 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT...SUFFICIENT
AT LEAST FOR SOME MENTION OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
CONTINUED A SLOW WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SFC FLOW
SHIFTING EASTWARD AND BEGINNING TO COME OFF THE WATER RATHER THAN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SENDS
ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE/FRONT THROUGH. ALTHOUGH IN THIS CASE
THE COLD ADVECTION APPEARS WEAKER AND THE FRONT DRIER. TEMPERATURES
ARE PERHAPS ABLE TO BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY...ELEVATED SEAS ARE NOW COMPOSED ALMOST
ENTIRELY OF EASTERLY SWELL. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
SLOWLY DECREASING AND WILL END THE GULF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE THIS
MORNING. A COASTAL TROUGH IS STILL POSITIONED OVER THE FAR OUTER
WATERS...BUT IT SHOULD FILL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WINDS OVER
LAND AND THE NEAR SHORE VEER DUE TO SUPPORTING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH SHIFTING EAST. COMPLETE DISSIPATION WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR HOWEVER...AND A WEAK SIGNATURE MAY LAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TOWARD THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM...WITH LIGHT NORTH EAST WINDS NEAR SHORE AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS TOWARD THE OUTER EDGE OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
MARINE DELINEATION AT 60 NM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME STRONGER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS MAY
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THE LAGUNA MADRE TUESDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND BECOME MORE MODERATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE
DAY/EVENING WEDNESDAY BRINGING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WEDNESDAY LASTING
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

52/99





000
FXUS64 KBRO 011804 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1204 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST /18Z/ AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON FORECAST COULD BE A LITTLE
TRICKY...AS IMMEDIATELY AFTER RELEASING THE FORECAST HAVE NOTED
BREAKS IN THE IFR OVERCAST HEADED FOR THE MID VALLEY...AND PERHAPS
BRIGHTENING SKIES IN THE LOWER VALLEY AS WELL. FOR NOW...HELD IFR
CEILINGS ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITY IN THE KBRO/KHRL AREA WHERE
LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG HOLDING ON...WHILE
LIFTED CEILINGS TO LOW MVFR...1500 FEET...AT KMFE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL LIFTING BETWEEN 19 AND 22Z SO WILL BE
ON THE LOOKOUT FOR POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENTS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE IFR CEILINGS AND IFR TO LIFR VISIBLITY TO
RETURN OVERNIGHT AS REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH NOSES THROUGH SOUTH
TEXAS AND HELPS REINFORCE OFFSHORE TROUGH WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TIGHTEN INVERSION...IN LINE WITH THE MORE
ACCURATE NAM-12. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...EXPECT LIFR/IFR CEILING
AND VISIBILITY TO HANG TOUGH THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...AND WHILE
BREAKS MAY ATTEMPT TO SNEAK IN BY 18Z NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD
NOW.

AS FOR FOG DENSITY...AT FIRST GLANCE THIS MORNING APPEARED DENSE
FOG COULD BE A SLAM DUNK BUT WITH THE REINFORCING HIGH AND
NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECT NEAR-DENSE CONDITIONS BUT HAVE HELD AT 1/2
MILE IN THE LOWER VALLEY AND 1 MILE KMFE...SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.
52/BSG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...FEBRUARY CLOSED LIKE A COLD LION...AND MARCH IS
CERTAINLY IS COMING IN LIKE ONE RELATIVE TO WHAT OUR TEMPERATURE
AND SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD BE. COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
ENHANCE LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW UNDERNEATH THE COLD DOME THAT SETTLED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH NOSE OF SURFACE
HIGH LOCKED DOWN ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS SEE ONLY MARGINAL
MODERATION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. NAM-12 AND OTHER MESOSCALE
MODELS CONTINUE TO DESTROY THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE THIS MORNING IN
HANDLING THE RAW CHILLINESS...SO NO REASON TO DEVIATE AND HAVE
REPOPULATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH THE COLDER VALUES...NUDGED
A BIT LOWER BASED ON EXPECTATION FOR LIMITED CLOUD DECK LIFTING
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER VALLEY.

NEW FORECAST HAS AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...BUT DID POKE
A COUPLE OF 60+ AREAS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IN STARR COUNTY OWING
TO THE NAM`S TIGHT WARMING GRADIENT...WHICH LOOKS TOO OPTIMISTIC
BUT PERHAPS REALISTIC IF SURFACE WINDS CAN BACK JUST A LITTLE
TOWARD THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.

I`VE ALSO ADJUSTED THE OVERNIGHT VALUES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. IN
THE BIG PICTURE...CALIFORNIA/NEVADA TROUGH HAS SLOWED DOWN WHICH
HAS PUMPED UP THE SUBTROPICAL 500 MB RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN
ROCKIES. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE SLIDES THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISIPPI VALLEY BY
MONDAY MORNING. WHAT DOES THIS HAVE TO DO WITH THE RGV? PLENTY.
THAT UPPER CONVERGENT/CONFLUENT AREA BRINGS A REINFORCING SHOT OF
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING...WHOSE `NOSE`
WILL EXTEND DOWN THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS AND ALONG THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE. THIS ENSURES A MINOR RE-COOLING THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY START TO THE
WORK WEEK. EXPECT TO SEE DRAMATIC CHANGES TO MONDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WHICH CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SPRING /UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80/ BUT WILL MORE LIKELY BE MIRED IN THE RAW CHILL
FOR YET ANOTHER DAY.

THAT LION IS PROVING VERY STUBBORN!
52/BSG

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DIPPED BELOW 6
FEET WELL OFFSHORE WHERE SWELL HAS BEEN MOST INFLUENTIAL. THAT
SWELL BEGAN TO DROP AS WELL...NOW DOWN TO AN 8 SECOND PERIOD.
EXPECT BENIGN CONDITIONS...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL
DENSE FOG...INTO MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE NORTH WINDS WILL GET A
BOOST BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY OR CAUTION LEVELS WITH
SEAS CONTINUING TO DIP.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WARM MOIST AIR WL CONTINUE
TO OVERRUN SHALLOW COOL AIR. THE RESULT WL BE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE...AND ALSO A THICK STRATUS DECK WITH AREAS OF FOG. A
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AGAIN BY THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE MID CA COAST WHILE A WEST TO EAST FLOW IS IN PLACE IN THE
MID LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE COASTAL
TROUGH IS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE GULF WATERS WHILE THE CANADIAN
HIGH WRAPS AROUND IT WITH A NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA. A VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
GULF WATERS AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE VALLEY...BUT IT
REMAINS LIGHT. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN THICK IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN
THE SHORT TERM...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER CA COAST WILL SINK
FARTHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND A REBUILDING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

TODAY...CONTINUED CLOUDY AND COOL WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. TONIGHT...THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTING EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S. RECONSTITUTED HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SEND A WEAK REINFORCING AIR MASS
SOUTH...MAINTAINING NORTH WINDS A BIT LONGER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WILL HELP REESTABLISH A SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL FORECASTING A STEADY WARM UP UNTIL A MID WEEK COLD FRONT
PLUNGES US INTO CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER ONCE AGAIN.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST MEXICAN COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO TO PRODUCE A BREEZY/WARM/WINDY DAY TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 35 MPH REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. SOUTHWESTERLY 700/850MB WINDS WILL DRY AND WARM OFF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND MIX INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AMID PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES HELPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL POSITION ITSELF TO
CREATE MORE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING AND BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING WILL FORM IN THE LEE OF THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS...SHIFTING OUR WINDS MORE TO THE EAST. A FEW
SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT UNDER A VERY STRONG TERRAIN INDUCED
RESIDUAL INVERSION BUT OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES SHARPLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
RESULTING COMBINATION OF UPPER CONVERGENCE FORCES A 1035 MB HIGH
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US WHICH USES COLD AIR DAMMING PROCESSES TO
SEND AN AIRMASS...SOURCED NEAR THE POLES...SOUTHWARD ACROSS TEXAS.
THE RESULTING ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THERE
REMAINS AT LEAST SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES IN ACTUAL FRONTAL
TIMING...BUT FOR THE FORECAST CONTINUED TO BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN
THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS DUE TO THE TENDENCY FOR SUCH
SYSTEMS TO MOVE FASTER THAN MODELED AMID THE LOWER VERTICAL
RESOLUTION OF GLOBAL MODELS AND THE PREEXISTING TROUGHING OVER THE
AREA...SO AT LEAST IN THE LOWEST 3000 TO 5000 FT IT WILL FACE LITTLE
RESISTANCE.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
STARTLING DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS IT ARRIVES. THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO CALL FOR HIGHS APPROACHING THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE PLUNGING INTO THE MID TO LOWER 40S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND
CHILLS ARE IN THE 30S AREA WIDE...AND AS THIS SYSTEM COMES WITHIN
VIEW OF THE NAM AND ITS BETTER HANDLING OF ARCTIC AIR MASSES... EXPECT
WE MAY NEED TO GO LOWER WITH THE TEMPERATURES. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND COASTAL TROUGHING NEAR THE SURFACE AMID CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM REBOUNDING ABOVE 50 DEGREES ON
THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF ALSO CONTINUE TO POSITION SOUTH TEXAS IN A
DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT ON THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A STRONG
SPEED MAX TO THE EAST OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING PARENT TROUGH. AT
THE SAME TIME A STRONG OVERRUNNING PATTERN IS APPARENT IN THE
800/700MB LAYER SO RAISED RAIN CHANCES AND KEPT A PERSISTENT
MENTION OF DRIZZLE.

CONTINUED TO CARRY DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS GIVEN THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS...THIS PUTS DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITH
PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THE COLUMN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY
DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 50 TO 100 MB OF ATMOSPHERE THAT MIGHT BE
PRIME FOR WET BULB COOLING IF ENOUGH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. WET
BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES...EVEN CALCULATED TO OUR LOWER FORECAST
VALUES ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING BUT ITS CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP AT
LEAST SOME EYE ON FOR FREEZING RAIN IF THE AIRMASS IS ESPECIALLY
COLDER THAN ADVERTISED.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE UPPER JET MAX MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
BUT RELATIVELY ROBUST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A FEW RIPPLES SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP COASTAL TROUGHING IN THE AREA. KEPT RELATIVELY
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE AND KEPT RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES
HUGGED TO THE COASTLINE BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS
850MB WINDS STRENGTHEN AS THE MAIN TROUGH/SEMI CLOSED LOW BEGINS
ADVANCING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SFC CONVERGENCE/COASTAL TROUGHING
INCREASES AND GFS/ECMWF SHOW GOOD 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT...SUFFICIENT
AT LEAST FOR SOME MENTION OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
CONTINUED A SLOW WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SFC FLOW
SHIFTING EASTWARD AND BEGINNING TO COME OFF THE WATER RATHER THAN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SENDS
ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE/FRONT THROUGH. ALTHOUGH IN THIS CASE
THE COLD ADVECTION APPEARS WEAKER AND THE FRONT DRIER. TEMPERATURES
ARE PERHAPS ABLE TO BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY...ELEVATED SEAS ARE NOW COMPOSED ALMOST
ENTIRELY OF EASTERLY SWELL. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
SLOWLY DECREASING AND WILL END THE GULF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE THIS
MORNING. A COASTAL TROUGH IS STILL POSITIONED OVER THE FAR OUTER
WATERS...BUT IT SHOULD FILL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WINDS OVER
LAND AND THE NEAR SHORE VEER DUE TO SUPPORTING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH SHIFTING EAST. COMPLETE DISSIPATION WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR HOWEVER...AND A WEAK SIGNATURE MAY LAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TOWARD THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM...WITH LIGHT NORTH EAST WINDS NEAR SHORE AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS TOWARD THE OUTER EDGE OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
MARINE DELINEATION AT 60 NM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME STRONGER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS MAY
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THE LAGUNA MADRE TUESDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND BECOME MORE MODERATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE
DAY/EVENING WEDNESDAY BRINGING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WEDNESDAY LASTING
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

52/99




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