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000
FXUS64 KBRO 042340 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
640 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS IN EFFECT RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW CLOUDS AT
THE 2500 FT LEVEL WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. TOMORROW...BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
SQUASH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE WINDS AT
THE SURFACE BECOME BREEZY AND CEILING DECKS RISE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGE OVERHEAD CENTERED OVER TEXAS REGION WITH
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE WEST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH RIDGE GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE
AREA REMAIN HIGH WITH 2.12 INCHES FOR THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING
OBSERVATION THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS VALUES TO LOWER SLIGHTLY
WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE
THIS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES
BUT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING EARLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED OVER TEXAS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SLOWLY
RETREATS WEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS ITS SLOW
RETROGRADE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ALSO BEGINS A
SLOW TRACK WEST EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHCENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST GULF
BY MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

CONCENTRATING ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM, GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW
TIGHT CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH
SOME SPREAD DEVELOPING IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME. THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN THROUGH DAY 7 /NEXT FRIDAY/ IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE THE
04/12Z GFS AND 04/002Z ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS MAKING THIS
A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENT FORECAST.  AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS
SUBTLE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER LEAVING ONLY DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY
WEAK SEABREEZE TO SET OFF CONVECTION IF ANY AT ALL. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS REDUCED WITH MEAN RH AROUND 50 PERCENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATED POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
BUMPS THEM UP BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT WED-FRI AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NC GULF BEGINS TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. INHERITED FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND BUT KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF CWA DRY. WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM FOR MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 69C WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY HUGGING THE
69E CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW LITTLE VARIATION WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE AND DEW POINTS NOT EXPECTED TO TUMBLE/REMAINING
WITHIN SEASONAL TOLERANCES/ WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE. OVERALL, FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR
UPDATES.

MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING SOUTHEAST PREVAILING
WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND PICK UP WITH A FEW GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS THE CHANCES OF
RAIN BECOME LIMITED INTO SATURDAY AND EVEN LESS SAT NIGHT. SEAS
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 3 FEET
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE
TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHT SEA. DO
NOT SEE ANY SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE AT BAY THROUGH
MONDAY THEN POSSIBLY A SLIGHT INCREASE ADVANCING IN FROM THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV




000
FXUS64 KBRO 042340 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
640 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS IN EFFECT RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW CLOUDS AT
THE 2500 FT LEVEL WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. TOMORROW...BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
SQUASH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE WINDS AT
THE SURFACE BECOME BREEZY AND CEILING DECKS RISE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGE OVERHEAD CENTERED OVER TEXAS REGION WITH
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE WEST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH RIDGE GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE
AREA REMAIN HIGH WITH 2.12 INCHES FOR THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING
OBSERVATION THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS VALUES TO LOWER SLIGHTLY
WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE
THIS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES
BUT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING EARLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED OVER TEXAS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SLOWLY
RETREATS WEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS ITS SLOW
RETROGRADE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ALSO BEGINS A
SLOW TRACK WEST EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHCENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST GULF
BY MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

CONCENTRATING ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM, GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW
TIGHT CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH
SOME SPREAD DEVELOPING IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME. THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN THROUGH DAY 7 /NEXT FRIDAY/ IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE THE
04/12Z GFS AND 04/002Z ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS MAKING THIS
A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENT FORECAST.  AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS
SUBTLE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER LEAVING ONLY DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY
WEAK SEABREEZE TO SET OFF CONVECTION IF ANY AT ALL. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS REDUCED WITH MEAN RH AROUND 50 PERCENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATED POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
BUMPS THEM UP BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT WED-FRI AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NC GULF BEGINS TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. INHERITED FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND BUT KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF CWA DRY. WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM FOR MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 69C WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY HUGGING THE
69E CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW LITTLE VARIATION WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE AND DEW POINTS NOT EXPECTED TO TUMBLE/REMAINING
WITHIN SEASONAL TOLERANCES/ WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE. OVERALL, FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR
UPDATES.

MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING SOUTHEAST PREVAILING
WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND PICK UP WITH A FEW GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS THE CHANCES OF
RAIN BECOME LIMITED INTO SATURDAY AND EVEN LESS SAT NIGHT. SEAS
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 3 FEET
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE
TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHT SEA. DO
NOT SEE ANY SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE AT BAY THROUGH
MONDAY THEN POSSIBLY A SLIGHT INCREASE ADVANCING IN FROM THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV




000
FXUS64 KBRO 042340 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
640 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS IN EFFECT RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW CLOUDS AT
THE 2500 FT LEVEL WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. TOMORROW...BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
SQUASH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE WINDS AT
THE SURFACE BECOME BREEZY AND CEILING DECKS RISE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGE OVERHEAD CENTERED OVER TEXAS REGION WITH
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE WEST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH RIDGE GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE
AREA REMAIN HIGH WITH 2.12 INCHES FOR THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING
OBSERVATION THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS VALUES TO LOWER SLIGHTLY
WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE
THIS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES
BUT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING EARLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED OVER TEXAS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SLOWLY
RETREATS WEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS ITS SLOW
RETROGRADE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ALSO BEGINS A
SLOW TRACK WEST EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHCENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST GULF
BY MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

CONCENTRATING ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM, GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW
TIGHT CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH
SOME SPREAD DEVELOPING IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME. THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN THROUGH DAY 7 /NEXT FRIDAY/ IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE THE
04/12Z GFS AND 04/002Z ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS MAKING THIS
A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENT FORECAST.  AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS
SUBTLE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER LEAVING ONLY DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY
WEAK SEABREEZE TO SET OFF CONVECTION IF ANY AT ALL. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS REDUCED WITH MEAN RH AROUND 50 PERCENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATED POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
BUMPS THEM UP BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT WED-FRI AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NC GULF BEGINS TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. INHERITED FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND BUT KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF CWA DRY. WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM FOR MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 69C WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY HUGGING THE
69E CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW LITTLE VARIATION WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE AND DEW POINTS NOT EXPECTED TO TUMBLE/REMAINING
WITHIN SEASONAL TOLERANCES/ WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE. OVERALL, FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR
UPDATES.

MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING SOUTHEAST PREVAILING
WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND PICK UP WITH A FEW GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS THE CHANCES OF
RAIN BECOME LIMITED INTO SATURDAY AND EVEN LESS SAT NIGHT. SEAS
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 3 FEET
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE
TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHT SEA. DO
NOT SEE ANY SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE AT BAY THROUGH
MONDAY THEN POSSIBLY A SLIGHT INCREASE ADVANCING IN FROM THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KBRO 042340 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
640 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS IN EFFECT RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW CLOUDS AT
THE 2500 FT LEVEL WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. TOMORROW...BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
SQUASH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE WINDS AT
THE SURFACE BECOME BREEZY AND CEILING DECKS RISE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGE OVERHEAD CENTERED OVER TEXAS REGION WITH
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE WEST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH RIDGE GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE
AREA REMAIN HIGH WITH 2.12 INCHES FOR THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING
OBSERVATION THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS VALUES TO LOWER SLIGHTLY
WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE
THIS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES
BUT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING EARLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED OVER TEXAS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SLOWLY
RETREATS WEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS ITS SLOW
RETROGRADE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ALSO BEGINS A
SLOW TRACK WEST EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHCENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST GULF
BY MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

CONCENTRATING ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM, GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW
TIGHT CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH
SOME SPREAD DEVELOPING IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME. THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN THROUGH DAY 7 /NEXT FRIDAY/ IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE THE
04/12Z GFS AND 04/002Z ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS MAKING THIS
A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENT FORECAST.  AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS
SUBTLE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER LEAVING ONLY DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY
WEAK SEABREEZE TO SET OFF CONVECTION IF ANY AT ALL. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS REDUCED WITH MEAN RH AROUND 50 PERCENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATED POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
BUMPS THEM UP BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT WED-FRI AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NC GULF BEGINS TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. INHERITED FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND BUT KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF CWA DRY. WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM FOR MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 69C WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY HUGGING THE
69E CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW LITTLE VARIATION WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE AND DEW POINTS NOT EXPECTED TO TUMBLE/REMAINING
WITHIN SEASONAL TOLERANCES/ WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE. OVERALL, FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR
UPDATES.

MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING SOUTHEAST PREVAILING
WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND PICK UP WITH A FEW GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS THE CHANCES OF
RAIN BECOME LIMITED INTO SATURDAY AND EVEN LESS SAT NIGHT. SEAS
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 3 FEET
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE
TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHT SEA. DO
NOT SEE ANY SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE AT BAY THROUGH
MONDAY THEN POSSIBLY A SLIGHT INCREASE ADVANCING IN FROM THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KBRO 041949
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
249 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGE OVERHEAD CENTERED OVER TEXAS REGION WITH
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE WEST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH RIDGE GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE
AREA REMAIN HIGH WITH 2.12 INCHES FOR THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING
OBSERVATION THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS VALUES TO LOWER SLIGHTLY
WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE
THIS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES
BUT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING EARLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED OVER TEXAS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SLOWLY
RETREATS WEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS ITS SLOW
RETROGRADE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ALSO BEGINS A
SLOW TRACK WEST EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHCENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST GULF
BY MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

CONCENTRATING ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM, GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW
TIGHT CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH
SOME SPREAD DEVELOPING IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME. THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN THROUGH DAY 7 /NEXT FRIDAY/ IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE THE
04/12Z GFS AND 04/002Z ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS MAKING THIS
A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENT FORECAST.  AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS
SUBTLE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER LEAVING ONLY DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY
WEAK SEABREEZE TO SET OFF CONVECTION IF ANY AT ALL. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS REDUCED WITH MEAN RH AROUND 50 PERCENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATED POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
BUMPS THEM UP BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT WED-FRI AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NC GULF BEGINS TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. INHERITED FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND BUT KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF CWA DRY. WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM FOR MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 69C WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY HUGGING THE
69E CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW LITTLE VARIATION WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE AND DEW POINTS NOT EXPECTED TO TUMBLE/REMAINING
WITHIN SEASONAL TOLERANCES/ WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE. OVERALL, FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR
UPDATES.

&&

.MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING SOUTHEAST PREVAILING
WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND PICK UP WITH A FEW GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS THE CHANCES OF
RAIN BECOME LIMITED INTO SATURDAY AND EVEN LESS SAT NIGHT. SEAS
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 3 FEET
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.


SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE
TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHT SEA. DO
NOT SEE ANY SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE AT BAY THROUGH
MONDAY THEN POSSIBLY A SLIGHT INCREASE ADVANCING IN FROM THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  92  79  93 /  20  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  78  94 /  10  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            78  97  78  97 /  20  10  10   0
MCALLEN              79  99  80  99 /  20  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      77 100  77 101 /  10  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  87  81  89 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
HERGERT...GRAPHICS/PSU





000
FXUS64 KBRO 041949
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
249 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGE OVERHEAD CENTERED OVER TEXAS REGION WITH
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE WEST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH RIDGE GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE
AREA REMAIN HIGH WITH 2.12 INCHES FOR THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING
OBSERVATION THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS VALUES TO LOWER SLIGHTLY
WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE
THIS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES
BUT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING EARLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED OVER TEXAS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SLOWLY
RETREATS WEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS ITS SLOW
RETROGRADE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ALSO BEGINS A
SLOW TRACK WEST EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHCENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST GULF
BY MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

CONCENTRATING ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM, GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW
TIGHT CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH
SOME SPREAD DEVELOPING IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME. THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN THROUGH DAY 7 /NEXT FRIDAY/ IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE THE
04/12Z GFS AND 04/002Z ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS MAKING THIS
A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENT FORECAST.  AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS
SUBTLE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER LEAVING ONLY DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY
WEAK SEABREEZE TO SET OFF CONVECTION IF ANY AT ALL. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS REDUCED WITH MEAN RH AROUND 50 PERCENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATED POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
BUMPS THEM UP BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT WED-FRI AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NC GULF BEGINS TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. INHERITED FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND BUT KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF CWA DRY. WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM FOR MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 69C WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY HUGGING THE
69E CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW LITTLE VARIATION WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE AND DEW POINTS NOT EXPECTED TO TUMBLE/REMAINING
WITHIN SEASONAL TOLERANCES/ WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE. OVERALL, FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR
UPDATES.

&&

.MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING SOUTHEAST PREVAILING
WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND PICK UP WITH A FEW GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS THE CHANCES OF
RAIN BECOME LIMITED INTO SATURDAY AND EVEN LESS SAT NIGHT. SEAS
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 3 FEET
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.


SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE
TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHT SEA. DO
NOT SEE ANY SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE AT BAY THROUGH
MONDAY THEN POSSIBLY A SLIGHT INCREASE ADVANCING IN FROM THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  92  79  93 /  20  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  78  94 /  10  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            78  97  78  97 /  20  10  10   0
MCALLEN              79  99  80  99 /  20  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      77 100  77 101 /  10  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  87  81  89 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
HERGERT...GRAPHICS/PSU




000
FXUS64 KBRO 041807
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
107 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...500 MB RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS LIMITING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
INTO TOMORROW. AT THIS TIME...A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER VALLEY MOVING NORTH AT AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
ARE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS. MODERATE TO HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE OVER KENEDY COUNTY AND GULF WATERS. MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING BRIEF SHOWERS
OVER THE TERMINAL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH A FEW TO
SCT MVFR CIGS NEAR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...500 MB RIDGING WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER DEEP SOUTH
TX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL TRIM BACK THE CONV POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL REMAIN POOLED ALONG AND EAST OF THE LOWER TX COASTLINE
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS MAY DEVELOP ISOLD CONV LATER TODAY NEAR THE RGV AIRPORTS.
BUT BELIEVE THE OVERALL CONV COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED TODAY
AND WILL NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE LATEST IR/WV SATL
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES THAT THE NAM HAS INITIALIZED
PRETTY WELL ON THE POSITION OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS
BROUGHT THE CONV TO THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SATL
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE PUSHES THIS 500 MB FEATURE
FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS IT THROUGH
SAT ALLOWING 500 MB RIDGING TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
WEAKEN ALSO AS THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS. EXPECT THE CONV POTENTIAL
TO STEADILY DIMINISH OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE
LEVELS DECREASE. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER NEAR THE REGION
TODAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD DAYTIME HEATING/SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONV
TO FIRE. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC INLAND TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE
SLGT CHC CONFINED TO THE GULF WATERS ON SAT.

AS THE ATMS DRIES OUT AND STABILIZES FRI AND SAT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WITH SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS
CREEPING BACK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH 90S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FORECAST IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CURRENTLY APPEARS SOMEWHAT TAME. H5 RIDGING
WILL STAY ANCHORED UPSTREAM...EVEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN TO SLIGHT OR LESS THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD HOWEVER FROM A COUPLE OF INFLUENCES. THE FIRST WILL BE
PERSISTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL
FINALLY SUCCEED IN FLATTENING THE RIDGE AROUND MID WEEK. THE OTHER
INFLUENCE WILL BE WEAK H5 TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE TWO INFLUENCES
WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO RETREAT WEST AND EVEN EVENTUALLY DISAPPEAR
LATE NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THENCE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH APPARENTLY LACKING ENOUGH PUNCH TO SERIOUSLY
THREATEN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOOKING AT THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF...DO NOT
SEE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY AND NIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND SLIGHTLY WETTER LATER IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF.
AFTERNOONS WILL BECOME PTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS...BUT MORNINGS AND LATE EVENINGS TO OVERNIGHTS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PERSIST ON INTO THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
S-SE WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS AND FAIRLY LOW SEAS. NO SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUSTAIN PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS AS THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS INTO THE LONG TERM.
H5 RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM WILL TEND TO DEFLECT ANY NORTHERN
TRACK SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ANY WEAK LEE
SIDE OR SOUTHERN PLAINS/WEST TEXAS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/67




000
FXUS64 KBRO 041807
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
107 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...500 MB RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS LIMITING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
INTO TOMORROW. AT THIS TIME...A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER VALLEY MOVING NORTH AT AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
ARE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS. MODERATE TO HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE OVER KENEDY COUNTY AND GULF WATERS. MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING BRIEF SHOWERS
OVER THE TERMINAL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH A FEW TO
SCT MVFR CIGS NEAR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...500 MB RIDGING WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER DEEP SOUTH
TX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL TRIM BACK THE CONV POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL REMAIN POOLED ALONG AND EAST OF THE LOWER TX COASTLINE
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS MAY DEVELOP ISOLD CONV LATER TODAY NEAR THE RGV AIRPORTS.
BUT BELIEVE THE OVERALL CONV COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED TODAY
AND WILL NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE LATEST IR/WV SATL
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES THAT THE NAM HAS INITIALIZED
PRETTY WELL ON THE POSITION OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS
BROUGHT THE CONV TO THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SATL
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE PUSHES THIS 500 MB FEATURE
FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS IT THROUGH
SAT ALLOWING 500 MB RIDGING TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
WEAKEN ALSO AS THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS. EXPECT THE CONV POTENTIAL
TO STEADILY DIMINISH OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE
LEVELS DECREASE. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER NEAR THE REGION
TODAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD DAYTIME HEATING/SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONV
TO FIRE. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC INLAND TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE
SLGT CHC CONFINED TO THE GULF WATERS ON SAT.

AS THE ATMS DRIES OUT AND STABILIZES FRI AND SAT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WITH SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS
CREEPING BACK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH 90S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FORECAST IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CURRENTLY APPEARS SOMEWHAT TAME. H5 RIDGING
WILL STAY ANCHORED UPSTREAM...EVEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN TO SLIGHT OR LESS THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD HOWEVER FROM A COUPLE OF INFLUENCES. THE FIRST WILL BE
PERSISTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL
FINALLY SUCCEED IN FLATTENING THE RIDGE AROUND MID WEEK. THE OTHER
INFLUENCE WILL BE WEAK H5 TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE TWO INFLUENCES
WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO RETREAT WEST AND EVEN EVENTUALLY DISAPPEAR
LATE NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THENCE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH APPARENTLY LACKING ENOUGH PUNCH TO SERIOUSLY
THREATEN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOOKING AT THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF...DO NOT
SEE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY AND NIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND SLIGHTLY WETTER LATER IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF.
AFTERNOONS WILL BECOME PTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS...BUT MORNINGS AND LATE EVENINGS TO OVERNIGHTS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PERSIST ON INTO THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
S-SE WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS AND FAIRLY LOW SEAS. NO SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUSTAIN PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS AS THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS INTO THE LONG TERM.
H5 RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM WILL TEND TO DEFLECT ANY NORTHERN
TRACK SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ANY WEAK LEE
SIDE OR SOUTHERN PLAINS/WEST TEXAS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/67





000
FXUS64 KBRO 041807
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
107 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...500 MB RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS LIMITING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
INTO TOMORROW. AT THIS TIME...A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER VALLEY MOVING NORTH AT AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
ARE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS. MODERATE TO HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE OVER KENEDY COUNTY AND GULF WATERS. MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING BRIEF SHOWERS
OVER THE TERMINAL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH A FEW TO
SCT MVFR CIGS NEAR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...500 MB RIDGING WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER DEEP SOUTH
TX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL TRIM BACK THE CONV POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL REMAIN POOLED ALONG AND EAST OF THE LOWER TX COASTLINE
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS MAY DEVELOP ISOLD CONV LATER TODAY NEAR THE RGV AIRPORTS.
BUT BELIEVE THE OVERALL CONV COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED TODAY
AND WILL NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE LATEST IR/WV SATL
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES THAT THE NAM HAS INITIALIZED
PRETTY WELL ON THE POSITION OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS
BROUGHT THE CONV TO THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SATL
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE PUSHES THIS 500 MB FEATURE
FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS IT THROUGH
SAT ALLOWING 500 MB RIDGING TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
WEAKEN ALSO AS THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS. EXPECT THE CONV POTENTIAL
TO STEADILY DIMINISH OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE
LEVELS DECREASE. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER NEAR THE REGION
TODAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD DAYTIME HEATING/SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONV
TO FIRE. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC INLAND TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE
SLGT CHC CONFINED TO THE GULF WATERS ON SAT.

AS THE ATMS DRIES OUT AND STABILIZES FRI AND SAT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WITH SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS
CREEPING BACK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH 90S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FORECAST IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CURRENTLY APPEARS SOMEWHAT TAME. H5 RIDGING
WILL STAY ANCHORED UPSTREAM...EVEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN TO SLIGHT OR LESS THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD HOWEVER FROM A COUPLE OF INFLUENCES. THE FIRST WILL BE
PERSISTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL
FINALLY SUCCEED IN FLATTENING THE RIDGE AROUND MID WEEK. THE OTHER
INFLUENCE WILL BE WEAK H5 TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE TWO INFLUENCES
WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO RETREAT WEST AND EVEN EVENTUALLY DISAPPEAR
LATE NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THENCE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH APPARENTLY LACKING ENOUGH PUNCH TO SERIOUSLY
THREATEN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOOKING AT THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF...DO NOT
SEE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY AND NIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND SLIGHTLY WETTER LATER IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF.
AFTERNOONS WILL BECOME PTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS...BUT MORNINGS AND LATE EVENINGS TO OVERNIGHTS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PERSIST ON INTO THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
S-SE WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS AND FAIRLY LOW SEAS. NO SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUSTAIN PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS AS THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS INTO THE LONG TERM.
H5 RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM WILL TEND TO DEFLECT ANY NORTHERN
TRACK SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ANY WEAK LEE
SIDE OR SOUTHERN PLAINS/WEST TEXAS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/67





000
FXUS64 KBRO 041155 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
655 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...500 MB RIDGING WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER DEEP SOUTH
TX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL TRIM BACK THE CONV POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL REMAIN POOLED ALONG AND EAST OF THE LOWER TX COASTLINE
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS MAY DEVELOP ISOLD CONV LATER TODAY NEAR THE RGV AIRPORTS.
BUT BELIEVE THE OVERALL CONV COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED TODAY
AND WILL NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE LATEST IR/WV SATL
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES THAT THE NAM HAS INITIALIZED
PRETTY WELL ON THE POSITION OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS
BROUGHT THE CONV TO THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SATL
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE PUSHES THIS 500 MB FEATURE
FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS IT THROUGH
SAT ALLOWING 500 MB RIDGING TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
WEAKEN ALSO AS THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS. EXPECT THE CONV POTENTIAL
TO STEADILY DIMINISH OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE
LEVELS DECREASE. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER NEAR THE REGION
TODAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD DAYTIME HEATING/SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONV
TO FIRE. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC INLAND TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE
SLGT CHC CONFINED TO THE GULF WATERS ON SAT.

AS THE ATMS DRIES OUT AND STABILIZES FRI AND SAT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WITH SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS
CREEPING BACK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH 90S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FORECAST IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CURRENTLY APPEARS SOMEWHAT TAME. H5 RIDGING
WILL STAY ANCHORED UPSTREAM...EVEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN TO SLIGHT OR LESS THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD HOWEVER FROM A COUPLE OF INFLUENCES. THE FIRST WILL BE
PERSISTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL
FINALLY SUCCEED IN FLATTENING THE RIDGE AROUND MID WEEK. THE OTHER
INFLUENCE WILL BE WEAK H5 TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE TWO INFLUENCES
WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO RETREAT WEST AND EVEN EVENTUALLY DISAPPEAR
LATE NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THENCE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH APPARENTLY LACKING ENOUGH PUNCH TO SERIOUSLY
THREATEN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOOKING AT THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF...DO NOT
SEE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY AND NIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND SLIGHTLY WETTER LATER IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF.
AFTERNOONS WILL BECOME PTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS...BUT MORNINGS AND LATE EVENINGS TO OVERNIGHTS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PERSIST ON INTO THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
S-SE WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS AND FAIRLY LOW SEAS. NO SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUSTAIN PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS AS THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS INTO THE LONG TERM.
H5 RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM WILL TEND TO DEFLECT ANY NORTHERN
TRACK SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ANY WEAK LEE
SIDE OR SOUTHERN PLAINS/WEST TEXAS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  80  92  79 /  20  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          93  78  94  78 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            94  78  97  78 /  20  20  10  10
MCALLEN              98  81  99  80 /  20  20  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  78 100  78 /  20  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  81  88  81 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...54
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...58





000
FXUS64 KBRO 041155 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
655 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...500 MB RIDGING WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER DEEP SOUTH
TX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL TRIM BACK THE CONV POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL REMAIN POOLED ALONG AND EAST OF THE LOWER TX COASTLINE
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS MAY DEVELOP ISOLD CONV LATER TODAY NEAR THE RGV AIRPORTS.
BUT BELIEVE THE OVERALL CONV COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED TODAY
AND WILL NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE LATEST IR/WV SATL
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES THAT THE NAM HAS INITIALIZED
PRETTY WELL ON THE POSITION OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS
BROUGHT THE CONV TO THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SATL
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE PUSHES THIS 500 MB FEATURE
FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS IT THROUGH
SAT ALLOWING 500 MB RIDGING TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
WEAKEN ALSO AS THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS. EXPECT THE CONV POTENTIAL
TO STEADILY DIMINISH OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE
LEVELS DECREASE. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER NEAR THE REGION
TODAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD DAYTIME HEATING/SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONV
TO FIRE. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC INLAND TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE
SLGT CHC CONFINED TO THE GULF WATERS ON SAT.

AS THE ATMS DRIES OUT AND STABILIZES FRI AND SAT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WITH SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS
CREEPING BACK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH 90S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FORECAST IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CURRENTLY APPEARS SOMEWHAT TAME. H5 RIDGING
WILL STAY ANCHORED UPSTREAM...EVEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN TO SLIGHT OR LESS THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD HOWEVER FROM A COUPLE OF INFLUENCES. THE FIRST WILL BE
PERSISTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL
FINALLY SUCCEED IN FLATTENING THE RIDGE AROUND MID WEEK. THE OTHER
INFLUENCE WILL BE WEAK H5 TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE TWO INFLUENCES
WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO RETREAT WEST AND EVEN EVENTUALLY DISAPPEAR
LATE NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THENCE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH APPARENTLY LACKING ENOUGH PUNCH TO SERIOUSLY
THREATEN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOOKING AT THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF...DO NOT
SEE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY AND NIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND SLIGHTLY WETTER LATER IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF.
AFTERNOONS WILL BECOME PTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS...BUT MORNINGS AND LATE EVENINGS TO OVERNIGHTS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PERSIST ON INTO THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
S-SE WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS AND FAIRLY LOW SEAS. NO SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUSTAIN PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS AS THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS INTO THE LONG TERM.
H5 RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM WILL TEND TO DEFLECT ANY NORTHERN
TRACK SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ANY WEAK LEE
SIDE OR SOUTHERN PLAINS/WEST TEXAS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  80  92  79 /  20  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          93  78  94  78 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            94  78  97  78 /  20  20  10  10
MCALLEN              98  81  99  80 /  20  20  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  78 100  78 /  20  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  81  88  81 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...54
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 040851
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
351 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE LATEST IR/WV SATL
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES THAT THE NAM HAS INITIALIZED
PRETTY WELL ON THE POSITION OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS
BROUGHT THE CONV TO THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SATL
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE PUSHES THIS 500 MB FEATURE
FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS IT THROUGH
SAT ALLOWING 500 MB RIDGING TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
WEAKEN ALSO AS THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS. EXPECT THE CONV POTENTIAL
TO STEADILY DIMINISH OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE
LEVELS DECREASE. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER NEAR THE REGION
TODAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD DAYTIME HEATING/SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONV
TO FIRE. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC INLAND TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE
SLGT CHC CONFINED TO THE GULF WATERS ON SAT.

AS THE ATMS DRIES OUT AND STABILIZES FRI AND SAT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WITH SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS
CREEPING BACK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FORECAST IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CURRENTLY APPEARS SOMEWHAT TAME. H5 RIDGING
WILL STAY ANCHORED UPSTREAM...EVEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN TO SLIGHT OR LESS THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD HOWEVER FROM A COUPLE OF INFLUENCES. THE FIRST WILL BE
PERSISTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL
FINALLY SUCCEED IN FLATTENING THE RIDGE AROUND MID WEEK. THE OTHER
INFLUENCE WILL BE WEAK H5 TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE TWO INFLUENCES
WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO RETREAT WEST AND EVEN EVENTUALLY DISAPPEAR
LATE NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THENCE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH APPARENTLY LACKING ENOUGH PUNCH TO SERIOUSLY
THREATEN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOOKING AT THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF...DO NOT
SEE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY AND NIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND SLIGHTLY WETTER LATER IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF.
AFTERNOONS WILL BECOME PTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS...BUT MORNINGS AND LATE EVENINGS TO OVERNIGHTS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PERSIST ON INTO THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
S-SE WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS AND FAIRLY LOW SEAS. NO SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUSTAIN PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS AS THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS INTO THE LONG TERM.
H5 RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM WILL TEND TO DEFLECT ANY NORTHERN
TRACK SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ANY WEAK LEE
SIDE OR SOUTHERN PLAINS/WEST TEXAS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  80  92  79 /  20  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          93  78  94  78 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            94  78  97  78 /  20  20  10  10
MCALLEN              98  81  99  80 /  20  20  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  78 100  78 /  20  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  81  88  81 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/60/58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 040851
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
351 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE LATEST IR/WV SATL
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES THAT THE NAM HAS INITIALIZED
PRETTY WELL ON THE POSITION OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS
BROUGHT THE CONV TO THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SATL
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE PUSHES THIS 500 MB FEATURE
FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS IT THROUGH
SAT ALLOWING 500 MB RIDGING TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
WEAKEN ALSO AS THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS. EXPECT THE CONV POTENTIAL
TO STEADILY DIMINISH OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE
LEVELS DECREASE. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER NEAR THE REGION
TODAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD DAYTIME HEATING/SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONV
TO FIRE. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC INLAND TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE
SLGT CHC CONFINED TO THE GULF WATERS ON SAT.

AS THE ATMS DRIES OUT AND STABILIZES FRI AND SAT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WITH SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS
CREEPING BACK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FORECAST IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CURRENTLY APPEARS SOMEWHAT TAME. H5 RIDGING
WILL STAY ANCHORED UPSTREAM...EVEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN TO SLIGHT OR LESS THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD HOWEVER FROM A COUPLE OF INFLUENCES. THE FIRST WILL BE
PERSISTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL
FINALLY SUCCEED IN FLATTENING THE RIDGE AROUND MID WEEK. THE OTHER
INFLUENCE WILL BE WEAK H5 TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE TWO INFLUENCES
WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO RETREAT WEST AND EVEN EVENTUALLY DISAPPEAR
LATE NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THENCE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH APPARENTLY LACKING ENOUGH PUNCH TO SERIOUSLY
THREATEN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOOKING AT THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF...DO NOT
SEE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY AND NIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND SLIGHTLY WETTER LATER IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF.
AFTERNOONS WILL BECOME PTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS...BUT MORNINGS AND LATE EVENINGS TO OVERNIGHTS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PERSIST ON INTO THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
S-SE WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS AND FAIRLY LOW SEAS. NO SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUSTAIN PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS AS THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS INTO THE LONG TERM.
H5 RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM WILL TEND TO DEFLECT ANY NORTHERN
TRACK SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ANY WEAK LEE
SIDE OR SOUTHERN PLAINS/WEST TEXAS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  80  92  79 /  20  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          93  78  94  78 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            94  78  97  78 /  20  20  10  10
MCALLEN              98  81  99  80 /  20  20  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  78 100  78 /  20  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  81  88  81 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/60/58





000
FXUS64 KBRO 040851
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
351 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE LATEST IR/WV SATL
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES THAT THE NAM HAS INITIALIZED
PRETTY WELL ON THE POSITION OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS
BROUGHT THE CONV TO THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SATL
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE PUSHES THIS 500 MB FEATURE
FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS IT THROUGH
SAT ALLOWING 500 MB RIDGING TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
WEAKEN ALSO AS THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS. EXPECT THE CONV POTENTIAL
TO STEADILY DIMINISH OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE
LEVELS DECREASE. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER NEAR THE REGION
TODAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD DAYTIME HEATING/SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONV
TO FIRE. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC INLAND TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE
SLGT CHC CONFINED TO THE GULF WATERS ON SAT.

AS THE ATMS DRIES OUT AND STABILIZES FRI AND SAT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WITH SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS
CREEPING BACK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FORECAST IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CURRENTLY APPEARS SOMEWHAT TAME. H5 RIDGING
WILL STAY ANCHORED UPSTREAM...EVEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN TO SLIGHT OR LESS THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD HOWEVER FROM A COUPLE OF INFLUENCES. THE FIRST WILL BE
PERSISTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL
FINALLY SUCCEED IN FLATTENING THE RIDGE AROUND MID WEEK. THE OTHER
INFLUENCE WILL BE WEAK H5 TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE TWO INFLUENCES
WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO RETREAT WEST AND EVEN EVENTUALLY DISAPPEAR
LATE NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THENCE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH APPARENTLY LACKING ENOUGH PUNCH TO SERIOUSLY
THREATEN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOOKING AT THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF...DO NOT
SEE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY AND NIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND SLIGHTLY WETTER LATER IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF.
AFTERNOONS WILL BECOME PTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS...BUT MORNINGS AND LATE EVENINGS TO OVERNIGHTS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PERSIST ON INTO THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
S-SE WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS AND FAIRLY LOW SEAS. NO SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUSTAIN PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS AS THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS INTO THE LONG TERM.
H5 RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM WILL TEND TO DEFLECT ANY NORTHERN
TRACK SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ANY WEAK LEE
SIDE OR SOUTHERN PLAINS/WEST TEXAS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  80  92  79 /  20  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          93  78  94  78 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            94  78  97  78 /  20  20  10  10
MCALLEN              98  81  99  80 /  20  20  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  78 100  78 /  20  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  81  88  81 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/60/58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 040712 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
212 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...500 MB RIDGING WILL BE INCREASING ITS HOLD OVER DEEP
SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL TRIM BACK THE CONV
POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THE BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN POOLED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOWER TX COASTLINE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD.
DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE EFFECTS MAY FIRE OFF ISOLD CONV
LATER TODAY NEAR THE BRO AND HRL AIRPORTS. BUT BELIEVE THE OVERALL
CONV COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED TODAY AND WILL NOT HAVE TOO
MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A
VICINITY COMMENT IN THE HRL AND BRO TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE WEAK 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST. WILL SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT AND
OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS FRI MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE SEABREEZE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRI AFTERNOON. WILL
GO WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHWEST RANCHLANDS...FRIDAY AS THE
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOW POPS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL LOWER POPS SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO LESS MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE VALUES ALONG WITH BETTER LIFT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO CAN NOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE GULF
WATERS...ESPECIALLY AS A 500 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO
THE UPPER70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES EACH NIGHT.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...61/65
LONG TERM...63

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  93  78  92  79 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          94  77  92  78 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            96  75  95  78 /  20  20  10  10
MCALLEN              97  77  97  80 /  20  20  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  75  99  78 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  80  89  81 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...54




000
FXUS64 KBRO 031959
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
259 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE WEAK 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST. WILL SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT AND
OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS FRI MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE SEABREEZE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRI AFTERNOON. WILL
GO WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHWEST RANCHLANDS...FRIDAY AS THE
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOW POPS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL LOWER POPS SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO LESS MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE VALUES ALONG WITH BETTER LIFT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO CAN NOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE GULF
WATERS...ESPECIALLY AS A 500 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO
THE UPPER70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...61/65
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...HERGERT




000
FXUS64 KBRO 031959
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
259 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE WEAK 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST. WILL SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT AND
OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS FRI MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE SEABREEZE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRI AFTERNOON. WILL
GO WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHWEST RANCHLANDS...FRIDAY AS THE
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOW POPS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL LOWER POPS SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO LESS MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE VALUES ALONG WITH BETTER LIFT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO CAN NOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE GULF
WATERS...ESPECIALLY AS A 500 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO
THE UPPER70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...61/65
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...HERGERT





000
FXUS64 KBRO 031130
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
630 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS EXPECTED TODAY. A BIT OF MORNING FOG NOW IN
THE MID VALLEY...BUT IT APPEARS RATHER LOCALIZED TO THE EBG AREA
AND WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER THE GULF...BUT MOST IS WELL OFFSHORE. WILL LIKELY SEE THE
SEA BREEZE AGAIN TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL UNORGANIZED CONVECTION
IN THE AREA DUE TO POP UP SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTION. SHOULDN`T BE A MAJOR ISSUE UNLESS THE CONVECTION
MOVES OVER THE AIRPORTS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
CIRCULATION JUST TO THE EAST OF BRO THIS MORNING. THIS VERIFIES THE
MODEL FORECAST OF THIS FEATURE`S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT FROM YESTERDAY.
DRIER AIR IS TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION...PRETTY MUCH COVERING
THE CWA. RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE GULF TO THE EAST
THROUGH SOUTH OF BRO HOWEVER.

THE MARINE CONVECTION SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A PROBLEM FOR THE CWA.
ON THE OTHER HAND...FORECAST PWAT WILL REMAIN NEAR TWO INCHES TODAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA BREEZE
FROM LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL GIVE EARLY ON DAYTIME HEATING A CHANCE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
ACTION...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM COLLAPSING CELLS INTERSECTING
WITH EACH OTHER AND WITH THE SEA BREEZE. EFFICIENT TROPICAL...SUMMER
TIME RAIN MAKING CELLS MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...
WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

THE UPPER CIRCULATION MAY BE ABLE TO REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE FOR ANOTHER
24 HRS AS IT DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...BUT IT WILL EVENTUALLY
BE OVERSHADOWED BY RIDGING BUILDING OVER TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
NOT TOTALLY SUPPRESS ANOTHER DAY OF UNORGANIZED CONVECTION AROUND
THE AREA FRIDAY...SOME OF WHICH WILL FEED OFF THE SEA BREEZE.

HAD NO REAL ISSUES CONTINUING WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS TO BUILD THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUT WEST ARE DRIFTING UP A
BIT...TOPPING OUT NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE
STILL PAINTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE GULF THAN OVER LAND AREAS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER TX AND NORTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT ATMS TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA. THE BETTER MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND NEAR THE COASTLINE AS A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEX. OVERALL THIS
TREND WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE CONV POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER ISOLD MAINLY SEA BREEZE/DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONV WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH NEXT WED DUE TO THE
BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE VALUES REMAINING POSITIONED JUST
OFFSHORE.

1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES WILL START TO INCREASE STEADLY
THROUGH DAY 7 ALLOWING THE HIGH TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER
RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE REGION WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE WARMUP DUE
TO THE HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE VALUES.

THE ECMWF AND GFS MEX MOS GUIDANCE ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH DAY 7. 500 MB HEIGHTS FIELDS
COMPARISONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
INDICATE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS OVER TX AND MEXICO AND THE BROAD TROFFING OVER THE GULF
OF MEX. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS TEMPS AND POPS
ARE PRETTY STABLE. SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL
50/50 MODEL BLEND FOR BOTH TEMPS AND POPS IN THE LONGER TERM
PERIOD.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND INLAND. THE RESULT WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE
SEAS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER...WITH A MID LEVEL LOW
APPROXIMATELY OVERHEAD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF
OF MEX AND THE TX COASTLINE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE S-SE
SURFACE WINDS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS. THE GULF SWELLS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW DUE TO THE WEAKER SURFACE FLOW. NO SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK FROM NHC DISCUSSES TS FRED IN THE ATLANTIC AND A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. THE GULF OF MEX
AND THE CARIB SEA REMAIN CLEAR OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/60/58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 031130
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
630 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS EXPECTED TODAY. A BIT OF MORNING FOG NOW IN
THE MID VALLEY...BUT IT APPEARS RATHER LOCALIZED TO THE EBG AREA
AND WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER THE GULF...BUT MOST IS WELL OFFSHORE. WILL LIKELY SEE THE
SEA BREEZE AGAIN TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL UNORGANIZED CONVECTION
IN THE AREA DUE TO POP UP SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTION. SHOULDN`T BE A MAJOR ISSUE UNLESS THE CONVECTION
MOVES OVER THE AIRPORTS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
CIRCULATION JUST TO THE EAST OF BRO THIS MORNING. THIS VERIFIES THE
MODEL FORECAST OF THIS FEATURE`S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT FROM YESTERDAY.
DRIER AIR IS TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION...PRETTY MUCH COVERING
THE CWA. RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE GULF TO THE EAST
THROUGH SOUTH OF BRO HOWEVER.

THE MARINE CONVECTION SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A PROBLEM FOR THE CWA.
ON THE OTHER HAND...FORECAST PWAT WILL REMAIN NEAR TWO INCHES TODAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA BREEZE
FROM LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL GIVE EARLY ON DAYTIME HEATING A CHANCE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
ACTION...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM COLLAPSING CELLS INTERSECTING
WITH EACH OTHER AND WITH THE SEA BREEZE. EFFICIENT TROPICAL...SUMMER
TIME RAIN MAKING CELLS MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...
WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

THE UPPER CIRCULATION MAY BE ABLE TO REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE FOR ANOTHER
24 HRS AS IT DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...BUT IT WILL EVENTUALLY
BE OVERSHADOWED BY RIDGING BUILDING OVER TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
NOT TOTALLY SUPPRESS ANOTHER DAY OF UNORGANIZED CONVECTION AROUND
THE AREA FRIDAY...SOME OF WHICH WILL FEED OFF THE SEA BREEZE.

HAD NO REAL ISSUES CONTINUING WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS TO BUILD THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUT WEST ARE DRIFTING UP A
BIT...TOPPING OUT NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE
STILL PAINTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE GULF THAN OVER LAND AREAS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER TX AND NORTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT ATMS TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA. THE BETTER MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND NEAR THE COASTLINE AS A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEX. OVERALL THIS
TREND WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE CONV POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER ISOLD MAINLY SEA BREEZE/DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONV WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH NEXT WED DUE TO THE
BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE VALUES REMAINING POSITIONED JUST
OFFSHORE.

1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES WILL START TO INCREASE STEADLY
THROUGH DAY 7 ALLOWING THE HIGH TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER
RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE REGION WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE WARMUP DUE
TO THE HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE VALUES.

THE ECMWF AND GFS MEX MOS GUIDANCE ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH DAY 7. 500 MB HEIGHTS FIELDS
COMPARISONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
INDICATE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS OVER TX AND MEXICO AND THE BROAD TROFFING OVER THE GULF
OF MEX. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS TEMPS AND POPS
ARE PRETTY STABLE. SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL
50/50 MODEL BLEND FOR BOTH TEMPS AND POPS IN THE LONGER TERM
PERIOD.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND INLAND. THE RESULT WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE
SEAS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER...WITH A MID LEVEL LOW
APPROXIMATELY OVERHEAD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF
OF MEX AND THE TX COASTLINE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE S-SE
SURFACE WINDS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS. THE GULF SWELLS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW DUE TO THE WEAKER SURFACE FLOW. NO SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK FROM NHC DISCUSSES TS FRED IN THE ATLANTIC AND A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. THE GULF OF MEX
AND THE CARIB SEA REMAIN CLEAR OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/60/58





000
FXUS64 KBRO 030919
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
419 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
CIRCULATION JUST TO THE EAST OF BRO THIS MORNING. THIS VERIFIES THE
MODEL FORECAST OF THIS FEATURE`S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT FROM YESTERDAY.
DRIER AIR IS TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION...PRETTY MUCH COVERING
THE CWA. RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE GULF TO THE EAST
THROUGH SOUTH OF BRO HOWEVER.

THE MARINE CONVECTION SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A PROBLEM FOR THE CWA.
ON THE OTHER HAND...FORECAST PWAT WILL REMAIN NEAR TWO INCHES TODAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA BREEZE
FROM LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL GIVE EARLY ON DAYTIME HEATING A CHANCE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
ACTION...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM COLLAPSING CELLS INTERSECTING
WITH EACH OTHER AND WITH THE SEA BREEZE. EFFICIENT TROPICAL...SUMMER
TIME RAIN MAKING CELLS MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...
WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

THE UPPER CIRCULATION MAY BE ABLE TO REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE FOR ANOTHER
24 HRS AS IT DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...BUT IT WILL EVENTUALLY
BE OVERSHADOWED BY RIDGING BUILDING OVER TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
NOT TOTALLY SUPPRESS ANOTHER DAY OF UNORGANIZED CONVECTION AROUND
THE AREA FRIDAY...SOME OF WHICH WILL FEED OFF THE SEA BREEZE.

HAD NO REAL ISSUES CONTINUING WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS TO BUILD THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUT WEST ARE DRIFTING UP A
BIT...TOPPING OUT NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE
STILL PAINTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE GULF THAN OVER LAND AREAS.


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER TX AND NORTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT ATMS TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA. THE BETTER MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND NEAR THE COASTLINE AS A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEX. OVERALL THIS
TREND WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE CONV POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER ISOLD MAINLY SEA BREEZE/DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONV WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH NEXT WED DUE TO THE
BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE VALUES REMAINING POSITIONED JUST
OFFSHORE.

1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES WILL START TO INCREASE STEADLY
THROUGH DAY 7 ALLOWING THE HIGH TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER
RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE REGION WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE WARMUP DUE
TO THE HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE VALUES.

THE ECMWF AND GFS MEX MOS GUIDANCE ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH DAY 7. 500 MB HEIGHTS FIELDS
COMPARISONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
INDICATE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS OVER TX AND MEXICO AND THE BROAD TROFFING OVER THE GULF
OF MEX. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS TEMPS AND POPS
ARE PRETTY STABLE. SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL
50/50 MODEL BLEND FOR BOTH TEMPS AND POPS IN THE LONGER TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND INLAND. THE RESULT WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE
SEAS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER...WITH A MID LEVEL LOW
APPROXIMATELY OVERHEAD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF
OF MEX AND THE TX COASTLINE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE S-SE
SURFACE WINDS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS. THE GULF SWELLS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW DUE TO THE WEAKER SURFACE FLOW. NO SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK FROM NHC DISCUSSES TS FRED IN THE ATLANTIC AND A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. THE GULF OF MEX
AND THE CARIB SEA REMAIN CLEAR OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  79  91  80 /  30  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          90  78  91  77 /  40  20  20  10
HARLINGEN            92  77  94  77 /  40  20  20  10
MCALLEN              94  79  96  80 /  30  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      97  77  98  77 /  20  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   86  80  86  81 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...60




000
FXUS64 KBRO 030919
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
419 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
CIRCULATION JUST TO THE EAST OF BRO THIS MORNING. THIS VERIFIES THE
MODEL FORECAST OF THIS FEATURE`S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT FROM YESTERDAY.
DRIER AIR IS TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION...PRETTY MUCH COVERING
THE CWA. RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE GULF TO THE EAST
THROUGH SOUTH OF BRO HOWEVER.

THE MARINE CONVECTION SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A PROBLEM FOR THE CWA.
ON THE OTHER HAND...FORECAST PWAT WILL REMAIN NEAR TWO INCHES TODAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA BREEZE
FROM LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL GIVE EARLY ON DAYTIME HEATING A CHANCE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
ACTION...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM COLLAPSING CELLS INTERSECTING
WITH EACH OTHER AND WITH THE SEA BREEZE. EFFICIENT TROPICAL...SUMMER
TIME RAIN MAKING CELLS MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...
WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

THE UPPER CIRCULATION MAY BE ABLE TO REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE FOR ANOTHER
24 HRS AS IT DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...BUT IT WILL EVENTUALLY
BE OVERSHADOWED BY RIDGING BUILDING OVER TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
NOT TOTALLY SUPPRESS ANOTHER DAY OF UNORGANIZED CONVECTION AROUND
THE AREA FRIDAY...SOME OF WHICH WILL FEED OFF THE SEA BREEZE.

HAD NO REAL ISSUES CONTINUING WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS TO BUILD THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUT WEST ARE DRIFTING UP A
BIT...TOPPING OUT NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE
STILL PAINTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE GULF THAN OVER LAND AREAS.


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER TX AND NORTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT ATMS TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA. THE BETTER MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND NEAR THE COASTLINE AS A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEX. OVERALL THIS
TREND WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE CONV POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER ISOLD MAINLY SEA BREEZE/DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONV WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH NEXT WED DUE TO THE
BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE VALUES REMAINING POSITIONED JUST
OFFSHORE.

1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES WILL START TO INCREASE STEADLY
THROUGH DAY 7 ALLOWING THE HIGH TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER
RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE REGION WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE WARMUP DUE
TO THE HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE VALUES.

THE ECMWF AND GFS MEX MOS GUIDANCE ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH DAY 7. 500 MB HEIGHTS FIELDS
COMPARISONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
INDICATE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS OVER TX AND MEXICO AND THE BROAD TROFFING OVER THE GULF
OF MEX. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS TEMPS AND POPS
ARE PRETTY STABLE. SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL
50/50 MODEL BLEND FOR BOTH TEMPS AND POPS IN THE LONGER TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND INLAND. THE RESULT WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE
SEAS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER...WITH A MID LEVEL LOW
APPROXIMATELY OVERHEAD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF
OF MEX AND THE TX COASTLINE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE S-SE
SURFACE WINDS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS. THE GULF SWELLS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW DUE TO THE WEAKER SURFACE FLOW. NO SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK FROM NHC DISCUSSES TS FRED IN THE ATLANTIC AND A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. THE GULF OF MEX
AND THE CARIB SEA REMAIN CLEAR OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  79  91  80 /  30  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          90  78  91  77 /  40  20  20  10
HARLINGEN            92  77  94  77 /  40  20  20  10
MCALLEN              94  79  96  80 /  30  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      97  77  98  77 /  20  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   86  80  86  81 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...60





000
FXUS64 KBRO 030538 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1238 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AN ACTIVE SEA
BREEZE...AND ANY ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS. THUS
VCSH AND TEMPO SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAFS SITES...WITH
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN EFFICIENT TROPICAL SHOWERS...BUT IMPACTS
TO TAFS WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MOST LOCAL AIRPORTS HAVE CLEARED OUT AFTER AFTERNOON
SHOWERS DISSIPATED. A COUPLE SHOWERS STILL FIRING WEST OF
KMFE...BUT WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...EXCEPT FOR NEAR ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE
STARTING AROUND NOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500MB LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST AND THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO
THURS NIGHT AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT AS THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500MB INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH 500MB RIDGING OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS. ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASE
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
COASTAL WATERS...ON FRIDAY. POPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SATURDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH DISSIPATES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE
COAST TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE UPPER
VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES EACH NIGHT.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET WITH EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO SCEC OR SCA ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/60





000
FXUS64 KBRO 030538 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1238 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AN ACTIVE SEA
BREEZE...AND ANY ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS. THUS
VCSH AND TEMPO SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAFS SITES...WITH
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN EFFICIENT TROPICAL SHOWERS...BUT IMPACTS
TO TAFS WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MOST LOCAL AIRPORTS HAVE CLEARED OUT AFTER AFTERNOON
SHOWERS DISSIPATED. A COUPLE SHOWERS STILL FIRING WEST OF
KMFE...BUT WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...EXCEPT FOR NEAR ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE
STARTING AROUND NOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500MB LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST AND THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO
THURS NIGHT AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT AS THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500MB INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH 500MB RIDGING OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS. ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASE
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
COASTAL WATERS...ON FRIDAY. POPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SATURDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH DISSIPATES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE
COAST TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE UPPER
VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES EACH NIGHT.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET WITH EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO SCEC OR SCA ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/60




000
FXUS64 KBRO 022341 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
641 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST LOCAL AIRPORTS HAVE CLEARED OUT AFTER AFTERNOON
SHOWERS DISSIPATED. A COUPLE SHOWERS STILL FIRING WEST OF
KMFE...BUT WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...EXCEPT FOR NEAR ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE
STARTING AROUND NOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500MB LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST AND THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO
THURS NIGHT AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT AS THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500MB INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH 500MB RIDGING OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS. ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASE
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
COASTAL WATERS...ON FRIDAY. POPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SATURDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH DISSIPATES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE
COAST TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE UPPER
VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES EACH NIGHT.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET WITH EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO SCEC OR SCA ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64




000
FXUS64 KBRO 022341 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
641 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST LOCAL AIRPORTS HAVE CLEARED OUT AFTER AFTERNOON
SHOWERS DISSIPATED. A COUPLE SHOWERS STILL FIRING WEST OF
KMFE...BUT WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...EXCEPT FOR NEAR ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE
STARTING AROUND NOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500MB LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST AND THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO
THURS NIGHT AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT AS THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500MB INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH 500MB RIDGING OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS. ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASE
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
COASTAL WATERS...ON FRIDAY. POPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SATURDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH DISSIPATES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE
COAST TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE UPPER
VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES EACH NIGHT.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET WITH EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO SCEC OR SCA ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64





000
FXUS64 KBRO 022341 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
641 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST LOCAL AIRPORTS HAVE CLEARED OUT AFTER AFTERNOON
SHOWERS DISSIPATED. A COUPLE SHOWERS STILL FIRING WEST OF
KMFE...BUT WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...EXCEPT FOR NEAR ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE
STARTING AROUND NOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500MB LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST AND THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO
THURS NIGHT AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT AS THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500MB INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH 500MB RIDGING OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS. ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASE
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
COASTAL WATERS...ON FRIDAY. POPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SATURDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH DISSIPATES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE
COAST TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE UPPER
VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES EACH NIGHT.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET WITH EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO SCEC OR SCA ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64





000
FXUS64 KBRO 022341 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
641 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST LOCAL AIRPORTS HAVE CLEARED OUT AFTER AFTERNOON
SHOWERS DISSIPATED. A COUPLE SHOWERS STILL FIRING WEST OF
KMFE...BUT WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...EXCEPT FOR NEAR ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE
STARTING AROUND NOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500MB LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST AND THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO
THURS NIGHT AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT AS THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500MB INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH 500MB RIDGING OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS. ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASE
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
COASTAL WATERS...ON FRIDAY. POPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SATURDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH DISSIPATES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE
COAST TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE UPPER
VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES EACH NIGHT.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET WITH EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO SCEC OR SCA ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64




000
FXUS64 KBRO 022001
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
301 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500MB LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST AND THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO
THURS NIGHT AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT AS THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500MB INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH 500MB RIDGING OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS. ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASE
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
COASTAL WATERS...ON FRIDAY. POPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SATURDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH DISSIPATES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE
COAST TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE UPPER
VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES EACH NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET WITH EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO SCEC OR SCA ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  92  79  92 /  20  30  30  30
BROWNSVILLE          77  92  78  92 /  20  40  20  20
HARLINGEN            76  93  76  95 /  20  30  20  20
MCALLEN              78  95  78  97 /  20  30  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  96  76  98 /  20  20  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  88  80  88 /  20  30  40  30
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/63/HERGERT





000
FXUS64 KBRO 022001
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
301 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500MB LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST AND THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO
THURS NIGHT AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT AS THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500MB INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH 500MB RIDGING OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS. ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASE
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
COASTAL WATERS...ON FRIDAY. POPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SATURDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH DISSIPATES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE
COAST TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE UPPER
VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES EACH NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET WITH EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO SCEC OR SCA ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  92  79  92 /  20  30  30  30
BROWNSVILLE          77  92  78  92 /  20  40  20  20
HARLINGEN            76  93  76  95 /  20  30  20  20
MCALLEN              78  95  78  97 /  20  30  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  96  76  98 /  20  20  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  88  80  88 /  20  30  40  30
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/63/HERGERT




000
FXUS64 KBRO 022001
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
301 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500MB LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST AND THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO
THURS NIGHT AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT AS THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500MB INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH 500MB RIDGING OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS. ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASE
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
COASTAL WATERS...ON FRIDAY. POPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SATURDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH DISSIPATES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE
COAST TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE UPPER
VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES EACH NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET WITH EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO SCEC OR SCA ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  92  79  92 /  20  30  30  30
BROWNSVILLE          77  92  78  92 /  20  40  20  20
HARLINGEN            76  93  76  95 /  20  30  20  20
MCALLEN              78  95  78  97 /  20  30  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  96  76  98 /  20  20  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  88  80  88 /  20  30  40  30
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/63/HERGERT




000
FXUS64 KBRO 021654 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1154 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...TYPICAL SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE
TEMPERED THIS AFTERNOON BY DRY AIR ALOFT. WILL SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY END BY 23Z WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ENSUING THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND TSTMS OFFSHORE WILL MOSTLY KEEP THEIR
DISTANCE...AND SO WILL WAIT FOR THE SEA BREEZE FOR VCSH. LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD ACTIVATE...WITH VCSH
AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. VFR WILL BE THE RULE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...BUT TEMPO MVFR LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT MFE LATE
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
CIRCULATION OVER EAST TEXAS...WITH DRIER AIR...EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS...FOLLOWING THE CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH...WHILE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. THE GFS SHOWS A DRIER LAYER
MOVING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE WEST TODAY. THUS...KEPT POPS
BETWEEN ISOLATED AND SCATTERED FOR TODAY FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA...AS FORECAST PWAT OF 1.8 INCHES WILL SUPPORT A SEA
BREEZE HINTED AT BY THE HRRR...BUT IT MAY BE WEAK AND NOT ABLE TO
PENETRATE MUCH DEEPER THAN THE COASTAL COUNTIES...PERHAPS INTO THE
MID VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW HEIGHT CENTER APPEARS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT CENTERED OFF THE LOWER TX COAST...
BETTER PLACED TO INSTIGATE MARINE CONVECTION THAN HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE COAST AND INLAND. THE NAM GUIDANCE IS ODD MEMBER OUT SHOWING
HIGHER END CHANCE POPS LATE THURSDAY. AT A MINIMUM...MAY SEE A MORE
EFFICIENT SEA BREEZE. OTHER WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODELS PROG A
MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH TO BE LOCATED ACROSS OUR COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY PROGRESS WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AS THE TROUGH
DISSIPATES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA FRIDAY THEN MOSTLY CURTAILING POPS TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND COASTAL WATERS WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED. FURTHER WEST UNDER MORE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID LEVEL HIGH... DECREASED POPS AND CLOUDS AND RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES REACHING THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED IN
THE WESTERN GULF MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AND WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING IN THE PAC NORTHWEST THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...SFC WINDS WILL EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK
EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN SPOTS.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...DOMINATED BY
SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF...RESULTING
IN LIGHT TO MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. MEANWHILE...H5
WEAKNESS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCING FROM THE GULF WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ALIVE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. NO SCEC OR SCA ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/63/BILLINGS




000
FXUS64 KBRO 021654 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1154 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...TYPICAL SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE
TEMPERED THIS AFTERNOON BY DRY AIR ALOFT. WILL SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY END BY 23Z WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ENSUING THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND TSTMS OFFSHORE WILL MOSTLY KEEP THEIR
DISTANCE...AND SO WILL WAIT FOR THE SEA BREEZE FOR VCSH. LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD ACTIVATE...WITH VCSH
AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. VFR WILL BE THE RULE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...BUT TEMPO MVFR LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT MFE LATE
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
CIRCULATION OVER EAST TEXAS...WITH DRIER AIR...EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS...FOLLOWING THE CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH...WHILE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. THE GFS SHOWS A DRIER LAYER
MOVING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE WEST TODAY. THUS...KEPT POPS
BETWEEN ISOLATED AND SCATTERED FOR TODAY FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA...AS FORECAST PWAT OF 1.8 INCHES WILL SUPPORT A SEA
BREEZE HINTED AT BY THE HRRR...BUT IT MAY BE WEAK AND NOT ABLE TO
PENETRATE MUCH DEEPER THAN THE COASTAL COUNTIES...PERHAPS INTO THE
MID VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW HEIGHT CENTER APPEARS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT CENTERED OFF THE LOWER TX COAST...
BETTER PLACED TO INSTIGATE MARINE CONVECTION THAN HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE COAST AND INLAND. THE NAM GUIDANCE IS ODD MEMBER OUT SHOWING
HIGHER END CHANCE POPS LATE THURSDAY. AT A MINIMUM...MAY SEE A MORE
EFFICIENT SEA BREEZE. OTHER WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODELS PROG A
MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH TO BE LOCATED ACROSS OUR COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY PROGRESS WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AS THE TROUGH
DISSIPATES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA FRIDAY THEN MOSTLY CURTAILING POPS TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND COASTAL WATERS WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED. FURTHER WEST UNDER MORE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID LEVEL HIGH... DECREASED POPS AND CLOUDS AND RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES REACHING THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED IN
THE WESTERN GULF MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AND WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING IN THE PAC NORTHWEST THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...SFC WINDS WILL EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK
EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN SPOTS.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...DOMINATED BY
SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF...RESULTING
IN LIGHT TO MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. MEANWHILE...H5
WEAKNESS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCING FROM THE GULF WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ALIVE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. NO SCEC OR SCA ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/63/BILLINGS





000
FXUS64 KBRO 021654 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1154 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...TYPICAL SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE
TEMPERED THIS AFTERNOON BY DRY AIR ALOFT. WILL SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY END BY 23Z WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ENSUING THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND TSTMS OFFSHORE WILL MOSTLY KEEP THEIR
DISTANCE...AND SO WILL WAIT FOR THE SEA BREEZE FOR VCSH. LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD ACTIVATE...WITH VCSH
AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. VFR WILL BE THE RULE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...BUT TEMPO MVFR LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT MFE LATE
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
CIRCULATION OVER EAST TEXAS...WITH DRIER AIR...EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS...FOLLOWING THE CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH...WHILE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. THE GFS SHOWS A DRIER LAYER
MOVING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE WEST TODAY. THUS...KEPT POPS
BETWEEN ISOLATED AND SCATTERED FOR TODAY FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA...AS FORECAST PWAT OF 1.8 INCHES WILL SUPPORT A SEA
BREEZE HINTED AT BY THE HRRR...BUT IT MAY BE WEAK AND NOT ABLE TO
PENETRATE MUCH DEEPER THAN THE COASTAL COUNTIES...PERHAPS INTO THE
MID VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW HEIGHT CENTER APPEARS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT CENTERED OFF THE LOWER TX COAST...
BETTER PLACED TO INSTIGATE MARINE CONVECTION THAN HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE COAST AND INLAND. THE NAM GUIDANCE IS ODD MEMBER OUT SHOWING
HIGHER END CHANCE POPS LATE THURSDAY. AT A MINIMUM...MAY SEE A MORE
EFFICIENT SEA BREEZE. OTHER WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODELS PROG A
MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH TO BE LOCATED ACROSS OUR COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY PROGRESS WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AS THE TROUGH
DISSIPATES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA FRIDAY THEN MOSTLY CURTAILING POPS TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND COASTAL WATERS WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED. FURTHER WEST UNDER MORE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID LEVEL HIGH... DECREASED POPS AND CLOUDS AND RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES REACHING THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED IN
THE WESTERN GULF MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AND WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING IN THE PAC NORTHWEST THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...SFC WINDS WILL EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK
EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN SPOTS.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...DOMINATED BY
SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF...RESULTING
IN LIGHT TO MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. MEANWHILE...H5
WEAKNESS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCING FROM THE GULF WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ALIVE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. NO SCEC OR SCA ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/63/BILLINGS





000
FXUS64 KBRO 021122 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
622 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND TSTMS OFFSHORE WILL MOSTLY KEEP THEIR
DISTANCE...AND SO WILL WAIT FOR THE SEA BREEZE FOR VCSH. LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD ACTIVATE...WITH VCSH
AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. VFR WILL BE THE RULE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...BUT TEMPO MVFR LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT MFE LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
CIRCULATION OVER EAST TEXAS...WITH DRIER AIR...EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS...FOLLOWING THE CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH...WHILE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. THE GFS SHOWS A DRIER LAYER
MOVING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE WEST TODAY. THUS...KEPT POPS
BETWEEN ISOLATED AND SCATTERED FOR TODAY FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA...AS FORECAST PWAT OF 1.8 INCHES WILL SUPPORT A SEA
BREEZE HINTED AT BY THE HRRR...BUT IT MAY BE WEAK AND NOT ABLE TO
PENETRATE MUCH DEEPER THAN THE COASTAL COUNTIES...PERHAPS INTO THE
MID VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW HEIGHT CENTER APPEARS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT CENTERED OFF THE LOWER TX COAST...
BETTER PLACED TO INSTIGATE MARINE CONVECTION THAN HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE COAST AND INLAND. THE NAM GUIDANCE IS ODD MEMBER OUT SHOWING
HIGHER END CHANCE POPS LATE THURSDAY. AT A MINIMUM...MAY SEE A MORE
EFFICIENT SEA BREEZE. OTHER WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODELS PROG A
MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH TO BE LOCATED ACROSS OUR COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY PROGRESS WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AS THE TROUGH
DISSIPATES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA FRIDAY THEN MOSTLY CURTAILING POPS TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND COASTAL WATERS WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED. FURTHER WEST UNDER MORE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID LEVEL HIGH... DECREASED POPS AND CLOUDS AND RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES REACHING THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED IN
THE WESTERN GULF MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AND WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING IN THE PAC NORTHWEST THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...SFC WINDS WILL EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK
EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN SPOTS.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...DOMINATED BY
SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF...RESULTING
IN LIGHT TO MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. MEANWHILE...H5
WEAKNESS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCING FROM THE GULF WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ALIVE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. NO SCEC OR SCA ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55/58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 021122 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
622 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND TSTMS OFFSHORE WILL MOSTLY KEEP THEIR
DISTANCE...AND SO WILL WAIT FOR THE SEA BREEZE FOR VCSH. LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD ACTIVATE...WITH VCSH
AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. VFR WILL BE THE RULE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...BUT TEMPO MVFR LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT MFE LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
CIRCULATION OVER EAST TEXAS...WITH DRIER AIR...EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS...FOLLOWING THE CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH...WHILE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. THE GFS SHOWS A DRIER LAYER
MOVING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE WEST TODAY. THUS...KEPT POPS
BETWEEN ISOLATED AND SCATTERED FOR TODAY FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA...AS FORECAST PWAT OF 1.8 INCHES WILL SUPPORT A SEA
BREEZE HINTED AT BY THE HRRR...BUT IT MAY BE WEAK AND NOT ABLE TO
PENETRATE MUCH DEEPER THAN THE COASTAL COUNTIES...PERHAPS INTO THE
MID VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW HEIGHT CENTER APPEARS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT CENTERED OFF THE LOWER TX COAST...
BETTER PLACED TO INSTIGATE MARINE CONVECTION THAN HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE COAST AND INLAND. THE NAM GUIDANCE IS ODD MEMBER OUT SHOWING
HIGHER END CHANCE POPS LATE THURSDAY. AT A MINIMUM...MAY SEE A MORE
EFFICIENT SEA BREEZE. OTHER WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODELS PROG A
MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH TO BE LOCATED ACROSS OUR COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY PROGRESS WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AS THE TROUGH
DISSIPATES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA FRIDAY THEN MOSTLY CURTAILING POPS TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND COASTAL WATERS WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED. FURTHER WEST UNDER MORE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID LEVEL HIGH... DECREASED POPS AND CLOUDS AND RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES REACHING THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED IN
THE WESTERN GULF MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AND WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING IN THE PAC NORTHWEST THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...SFC WINDS WILL EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK
EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN SPOTS.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...DOMINATED BY
SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF...RESULTING
IN LIGHT TO MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. MEANWHILE...H5
WEAKNESS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCING FROM THE GULF WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ALIVE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. NO SCEC OR SCA ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55/58





000
FXUS64 KBRO 021122 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
622 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND TSTMS OFFSHORE WILL MOSTLY KEEP THEIR
DISTANCE...AND SO WILL WAIT FOR THE SEA BREEZE FOR VCSH. LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD ACTIVATE...WITH VCSH
AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. VFR WILL BE THE RULE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...BUT TEMPO MVFR LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT MFE LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
CIRCULATION OVER EAST TEXAS...WITH DRIER AIR...EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS...FOLLOWING THE CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH...WHILE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. THE GFS SHOWS A DRIER LAYER
MOVING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE WEST TODAY. THUS...KEPT POPS
BETWEEN ISOLATED AND SCATTERED FOR TODAY FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA...AS FORECAST PWAT OF 1.8 INCHES WILL SUPPORT A SEA
BREEZE HINTED AT BY THE HRRR...BUT IT MAY BE WEAK AND NOT ABLE TO
PENETRATE MUCH DEEPER THAN THE COASTAL COUNTIES...PERHAPS INTO THE
MID VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW HEIGHT CENTER APPEARS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT CENTERED OFF THE LOWER TX COAST...
BETTER PLACED TO INSTIGATE MARINE CONVECTION THAN HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE COAST AND INLAND. THE NAM GUIDANCE IS ODD MEMBER OUT SHOWING
HIGHER END CHANCE POPS LATE THURSDAY. AT A MINIMUM...MAY SEE A MORE
EFFICIENT SEA BREEZE. OTHER WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODELS PROG A
MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH TO BE LOCATED ACROSS OUR COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY PROGRESS WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AS THE TROUGH
DISSIPATES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA FRIDAY THEN MOSTLY CURTAILING POPS TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND COASTAL WATERS WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED. FURTHER WEST UNDER MORE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID LEVEL HIGH... DECREASED POPS AND CLOUDS AND RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES REACHING THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED IN
THE WESTERN GULF MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AND WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING IN THE PAC NORTHWEST THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...SFC WINDS WILL EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK
EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN SPOTS.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...DOMINATED BY
SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF...RESULTING
IN LIGHT TO MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. MEANWHILE...H5
WEAKNESS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCING FROM THE GULF WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ALIVE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. NO SCEC OR SCA ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55/58





000
FXUS64 KBRO 021122 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
622 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND TSTMS OFFSHORE WILL MOSTLY KEEP THEIR
DISTANCE...AND SO WILL WAIT FOR THE SEA BREEZE FOR VCSH. LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD ACTIVATE...WITH VCSH
AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. VFR WILL BE THE RULE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...BUT TEMPO MVFR LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT MFE LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
CIRCULATION OVER EAST TEXAS...WITH DRIER AIR...EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS...FOLLOWING THE CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH...WHILE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. THE GFS SHOWS A DRIER LAYER
MOVING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE WEST TODAY. THUS...KEPT POPS
BETWEEN ISOLATED AND SCATTERED FOR TODAY FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA...AS FORECAST PWAT OF 1.8 INCHES WILL SUPPORT A SEA
BREEZE HINTED AT BY THE HRRR...BUT IT MAY BE WEAK AND NOT ABLE TO
PENETRATE MUCH DEEPER THAN THE COASTAL COUNTIES...PERHAPS INTO THE
MID VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW HEIGHT CENTER APPEARS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT CENTERED OFF THE LOWER TX COAST...
BETTER PLACED TO INSTIGATE MARINE CONVECTION THAN HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE COAST AND INLAND. THE NAM GUIDANCE IS ODD MEMBER OUT SHOWING
HIGHER END CHANCE POPS LATE THURSDAY. AT A MINIMUM...MAY SEE A MORE
EFFICIENT SEA BREEZE. OTHER WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODELS PROG A
MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH TO BE LOCATED ACROSS OUR COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY PROGRESS WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AS THE TROUGH
DISSIPATES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA FRIDAY THEN MOSTLY CURTAILING POPS TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND COASTAL WATERS WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED. FURTHER WEST UNDER MORE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID LEVEL HIGH... DECREASED POPS AND CLOUDS AND RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES REACHING THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED IN
THE WESTERN GULF MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AND WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING IN THE PAC NORTHWEST THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...SFC WINDS WILL EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK
EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN SPOTS.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...DOMINATED BY
SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF...RESULTING
IN LIGHT TO MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. MEANWHILE...H5
WEAKNESS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCING FROM THE GULF WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ALIVE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. NO SCEC OR SCA ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55/58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 020814
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
314 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
CIRCULATION OVER EAST TEXAS...WITH DRIER AIR...EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS...FOLLOWING THE CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH...WHILE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. THE GFS SHOWS A DRIER LAYER
MOVING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE WEST TODAY. THUS...KEPT POPS
BETWEEN ISOLATED AND SCATTERED FOR TODAY FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA...AS FORECAST PWAT OF 1.8 INCHES WILL SUPPORT A SEA
BREEZE HINTED AT BY THE HRRR...BUT IT MAY BE WEAK AND NOT ABLE TO
PENETRATE MUCH DEEPER THAN THE COASTAL COUNTIES...PERHAPS INTO THE
MID VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW HEIGHT CENTER APPEARS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT CENTERED OFF THE LOWER TX COAST...
BETTER PLACED TO INSTIGATE MARINE CONVECTION THAN HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE COAST AND INLAND. THE NAM GUIDANCE IS ODD MEMBER OUT SHOWING
HIGHER END CHANCE POPS LATE THURSDAY. AT A MINIMUM...MAY SEE A MORE
EFFICIENT SEA BREEZE. OTHER WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODELS PROG A
MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH TO BE LOCATED ACROSS OUR COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY PROGRESS WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AS THE TROUGH
DISSIPATES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA FRIDAY THEN MOSTLY CURTAILING POPS TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND COASTAL WATERS WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED. FURTHER WEST UNDER MORE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID LEVEL HIGH... DECREASED POPS AND CLOUDS AND RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES REACHING THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED IN
THE WESTERN GULF MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AND WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING IN THE PAC NORTHWEST THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...SFC WINDS WILL EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK
EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN SPOTS.

&&

.MARINE /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...DOMINATED BY
SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF...RESULTING
IN LIGHT TO MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. MEANWHILE...H5
WEAKNESS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCING FROM THE GULF WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ALIVE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. NO SCEC OR SCA ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  88  77  90  79 /  30  30  30  30
BROWNSVILLE          89  76  90  78 /  30  30  40  20
HARLINGEN            91  76  92  76 /  30  20  30  20
MCALLEN              93  77  94  78 /  30  20  30  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      94  75  96  77 /  30  20  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   84  79  85  80 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 020814
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
314 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
CIRCULATION OVER EAST TEXAS...WITH DRIER AIR...EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS...FOLLOWING THE CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH...WHILE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. THE GFS SHOWS A DRIER LAYER
MOVING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE WEST TODAY. THUS...KEPT POPS
BETWEEN ISOLATED AND SCATTERED FOR TODAY FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA...AS FORECAST PWAT OF 1.8 INCHES WILL SUPPORT A SEA
BREEZE HINTED AT BY THE HRRR...BUT IT MAY BE WEAK AND NOT ABLE TO
PENETRATE MUCH DEEPER THAN THE COASTAL COUNTIES...PERHAPS INTO THE
MID VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW HEIGHT CENTER APPEARS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT CENTERED OFF THE LOWER TX COAST...
BETTER PLACED TO INSTIGATE MARINE CONVECTION THAN HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE COAST AND INLAND. THE NAM GUIDANCE IS ODD MEMBER OUT SHOWING
HIGHER END CHANCE POPS LATE THURSDAY. AT A MINIMUM...MAY SEE A MORE
EFFICIENT SEA BREEZE. OTHER WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODELS PROG A
MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH TO BE LOCATED ACROSS OUR COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY PROGRESS WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AS THE TROUGH
DISSIPATES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA FRIDAY THEN MOSTLY CURTAILING POPS TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND COASTAL WATERS WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED. FURTHER WEST UNDER MORE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID LEVEL HIGH... DECREASED POPS AND CLOUDS AND RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES REACHING THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED IN
THE WESTERN GULF MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AND WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING IN THE PAC NORTHWEST THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...SFC WINDS WILL EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK
EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN SPOTS.

&&

.MARINE /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...DOMINATED BY
SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF...RESULTING
IN LIGHT TO MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. MEANWHILE...H5
WEAKNESS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCING FROM THE GULF WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ALIVE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. NO SCEC OR SCA ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  88  77  90  79 /  30  30  30  30
BROWNSVILLE          89  76  90  78 /  30  30  40  20
HARLINGEN            91  76  92  76 /  30  20  30  20
MCALLEN              93  77  94  78 /  30  20  30  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      94  75  96  77 /  30  20  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   84  79  85  80 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58





000
FXUS64 KBRO 020814
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
314 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
CIRCULATION OVER EAST TEXAS...WITH DRIER AIR...EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS...FOLLOWING THE CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH...WHILE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. THE GFS SHOWS A DRIER LAYER
MOVING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE WEST TODAY. THUS...KEPT POPS
BETWEEN ISOLATED AND SCATTERED FOR TODAY FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA...AS FORECAST PWAT OF 1.8 INCHES WILL SUPPORT A SEA
BREEZE HINTED AT BY THE HRRR...BUT IT MAY BE WEAK AND NOT ABLE TO
PENETRATE MUCH DEEPER THAN THE COASTAL COUNTIES...PERHAPS INTO THE
MID VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW HEIGHT CENTER APPEARS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT CENTERED OFF THE LOWER TX COAST...
BETTER PLACED TO INSTIGATE MARINE CONVECTION THAN HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE COAST AND INLAND. THE NAM GUIDANCE IS ODD MEMBER OUT SHOWING
HIGHER END CHANCE POPS LATE THURSDAY. AT A MINIMUM...MAY SEE A MORE
EFFICIENT SEA BREEZE. OTHER WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODELS PROG A
MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH TO BE LOCATED ACROSS OUR COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY PROGRESS WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AS THE TROUGH
DISSIPATES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA FRIDAY THEN MOSTLY CURTAILING POPS TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND COASTAL WATERS WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED. FURTHER WEST UNDER MORE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID LEVEL HIGH... DECREASED POPS AND CLOUDS AND RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES REACHING THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED IN
THE WESTERN GULF MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AND WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING IN THE PAC NORTHWEST THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...SFC WINDS WILL EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK
EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN SPOTS.

&&

.MARINE /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...DOMINATED BY
SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF...RESULTING
IN LIGHT TO MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. MEANWHILE...H5
WEAKNESS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCING FROM THE GULF WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ALIVE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. NO SCEC OR SCA ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  88  77  90  79 /  30  30  30  30
BROWNSVILLE          89  76  90  78 /  30  30  40  20
HARLINGEN            91  76  92  76 /  30  20  30  20
MCALLEN              93  77  94  78 /  30  20  30  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      94  75  96  77 /  30  20  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   84  79  85  80 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58




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