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000
FXUS64 KBRO 301734 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1234 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 ARE
PREVALENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. CU
FIELD CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT IS GRADUALLY
LIFTING. AIRPORTS WILL FLUCTUATE BTWN BKN AND SCT025 BEFORE CIGS
LIFT FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET...MIXING WILL
CEASE...BRINGING SFC WINDS DOWN TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CIGS WILL LOWER
AGAIN TO AROUND 1500.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CURRENT BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT
45 KNOTS EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST BRO
SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST A LITTLE LESS WIND UP TO 2000 FEET. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION OF LLWS FOR BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS THROUGH 15Z.
SOME LOW CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 12-14Z AT ALL VALLEY TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK
UP AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUD DECKS RETURN LATER TONIGHT
BRINGING MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS AFTER 06Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. LATEST BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 48
KNOTS EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. THE BRO 0Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH AN INVERSION AROUND
2400 FEET. THIS INVERSION ALONG WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTING
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS HAS ALLOWED LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AROUND DAWN AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGH SUNRISE.

THE 500 MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AS WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL INTERACT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN
TODAY BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE
THAN 20 TO 25 MPH. PATCHY MORNING FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS COULD SEE THE TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
TODAY...MAINLY NEAR RIO GRANDE CITY AND ZAPATA.

THE MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES OVER THE BAJA REGION TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AS THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO THE BIG BEND AND WEST TEXAS REGION TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...WILL REMOVE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN FOR
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S...SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN MONDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK 500 MB TROUGH RIDING OVERHEAD WITHIN A
NEARLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN
FACT...STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES THE BRO CWFA WITHIN A
GENERAL RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH 500 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND BUILDING FARTHER
NORTH OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...DRIER
WEATHER WILL RESULT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL STEADILY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THAT
TIME...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL OCCURRING ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE STEADY DISSIPATION OF THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
LESSER CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRIER
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...BUT KNOCKED DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY REGARDING DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS
INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY SHOWS SEAS NEAR 3.9
FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 18 KNOTS. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE DUE TO INCREASING WINDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS AND ROUGHER SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE
ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MOST
LIKELY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY WILL POSSIBLY RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THAT TIME...WITH MARINE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64




000
FXUS64 KBRO 301147 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
647 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT
45 KNOTS EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST BRO
SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST A LITTLE LESS WIND UP TO 2000 FEET. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION OF LLWS FOR BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS THROUGH 15Z.
SOME LOW CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 12-14Z AT ALL VALLEY TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK
UP AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUD DECKS RETURN LATER TONIGHT
BRINGING MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. LATEST BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 48
KNOTS EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. THE BRO 0Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH AN INVERSION AROUND
2400 FEET. THIS INVERSION ALONG WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTING
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS HAS ALLOWED LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AROUND DAWN AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGH SUNRISE.

THE 500 MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AS WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL INTERACT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN
TODAY BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE
THAN 20 TO 25 MPH. PATCHY MORNING FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS COULD SEE THE TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
TODAY...MAINLY NEAR RIO GRANDE CITY AND ZAPATA.

THE MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES OVER THE BAJA REGION TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AS THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO THE BIG BEND AND WEST TEXAS REGION TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...WILL REMOVE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN FOR
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S...SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN MONDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK 500 MB TROUGH RIDING OVERHEAD WITHIN A
NEARLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN
FACT...STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES THE BRO CWFA WITHIN A
GENERAL RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH 500 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND BUILDING FARTHER
NORTH OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...DRIER
WEATHER WILL RESULT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL STEADILY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THAT
TIME...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL OCCURRING ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE STEADY DISSIPATION OF THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
LESSER CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRIER
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...BUT KNOCKED DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY REGARDING DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS
INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY SHOWS SEAS NEAR 3.9
FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 18 KNOTS. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE DUE TO INCREASING WINDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS AND ROUGHER SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE
ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MOST
LIKELY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY WILL POSSIBLY RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THAT TIME...WITH MARINE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 301147 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
647 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT
45 KNOTS EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST BRO
SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST A LITTLE LESS WIND UP TO 2000 FEET. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION OF LLWS FOR BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS THROUGH 15Z.
SOME LOW CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 12-14Z AT ALL VALLEY TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK
UP AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUD DECKS RETURN LATER TONIGHT
BRINGING MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. LATEST BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 48
KNOTS EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. THE BRO 0Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH AN INVERSION AROUND
2400 FEET. THIS INVERSION ALONG WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTING
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS HAS ALLOWED LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AROUND DAWN AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGH SUNRISE.

THE 500 MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AS WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL INTERACT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN
TODAY BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE
THAN 20 TO 25 MPH. PATCHY MORNING FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS COULD SEE THE TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
TODAY...MAINLY NEAR RIO GRANDE CITY AND ZAPATA.

THE MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES OVER THE BAJA REGION TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AS THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO THE BIG BEND AND WEST TEXAS REGION TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...WILL REMOVE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN FOR
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S...SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN MONDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK 500 MB TROUGH RIDING OVERHEAD WITHIN A
NEARLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN
FACT...STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES THE BRO CWFA WITHIN A
GENERAL RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH 500 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND BUILDING FARTHER
NORTH OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...DRIER
WEATHER WILL RESULT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL STEADILY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THAT
TIME...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL OCCURRING ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE STEADY DISSIPATION OF THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
LESSER CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRIER
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...BUT KNOCKED DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY REGARDING DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS
INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY SHOWS SEAS NEAR 3.9
FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 18 KNOTS. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE DUE TO INCREASING WINDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS AND ROUGHER SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE
ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MOST
LIKELY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY WILL POSSIBLY RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THAT TIME...WITH MARINE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 301147 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
647 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT
45 KNOTS EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST BRO
SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST A LITTLE LESS WIND UP TO 2000 FEET. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION OF LLWS FOR BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS THROUGH 15Z.
SOME LOW CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 12-14Z AT ALL VALLEY TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK
UP AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUD DECKS RETURN LATER TONIGHT
BRINGING MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. LATEST BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 48
KNOTS EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. THE BRO 0Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH AN INVERSION AROUND
2400 FEET. THIS INVERSION ALONG WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTING
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS HAS ALLOWED LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AROUND DAWN AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGH SUNRISE.

THE 500 MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AS WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL INTERACT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN
TODAY BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE
THAN 20 TO 25 MPH. PATCHY MORNING FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS COULD SEE THE TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
TODAY...MAINLY NEAR RIO GRANDE CITY AND ZAPATA.

THE MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES OVER THE BAJA REGION TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AS THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO THE BIG BEND AND WEST TEXAS REGION TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...WILL REMOVE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN FOR
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S...SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN MONDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK 500 MB TROUGH RIDING OVERHEAD WITHIN A
NEARLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN
FACT...STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES THE BRO CWFA WITHIN A
GENERAL RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH 500 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND BUILDING FARTHER
NORTH OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...DRIER
WEATHER WILL RESULT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL STEADILY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THAT
TIME...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL OCCURRING ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE STEADY DISSIPATION OF THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
LESSER CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRIER
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...BUT KNOCKED DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY REGARDING DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS
INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY SHOWS SEAS NEAR 3.9
FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 18 KNOTS. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE DUE TO INCREASING WINDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS AND ROUGHER SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE
ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MOST
LIKELY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY WILL POSSIBLY RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THAT TIME...WITH MARINE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 301147 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
647 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT
45 KNOTS EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST BRO
SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST A LITTLE LESS WIND UP TO 2000 FEET. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION OF LLWS FOR BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS THROUGH 15Z.
SOME LOW CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 12-14Z AT ALL VALLEY TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK
UP AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUD DECKS RETURN LATER TONIGHT
BRINGING MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. LATEST BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 48
KNOTS EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. THE BRO 0Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH AN INVERSION AROUND
2400 FEET. THIS INVERSION ALONG WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTING
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS HAS ALLOWED LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AROUND DAWN AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGH SUNRISE.

THE 500 MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AS WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL INTERACT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN
TODAY BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE
THAN 20 TO 25 MPH. PATCHY MORNING FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS COULD SEE THE TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
TODAY...MAINLY NEAR RIO GRANDE CITY AND ZAPATA.

THE MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES OVER THE BAJA REGION TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AS THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO THE BIG BEND AND WEST TEXAS REGION TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...WILL REMOVE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN FOR
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S...SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN MONDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK 500 MB TROUGH RIDING OVERHEAD WITHIN A
NEARLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN
FACT...STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES THE BRO CWFA WITHIN A
GENERAL RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH 500 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND BUILDING FARTHER
NORTH OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...DRIER
WEATHER WILL RESULT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL STEADILY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THAT
TIME...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL OCCURRING ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE STEADY DISSIPATION OF THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
LESSER CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRIER
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...BUT KNOCKED DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY REGARDING DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS
INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY SHOWS SEAS NEAR 3.9
FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 18 KNOTS. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE DUE TO INCREASING WINDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS AND ROUGHER SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE
ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MOST
LIKELY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY WILL POSSIBLY RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THAT TIME...WITH MARINE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 300913
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
413 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. LATEST BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 48
KNOTS EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. THE BRO 0Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH AN INVERSION AROUND
2400 FEET. THIS INVERSION ALONG WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTING
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS HAS ALLOWED LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AROUND DAWN AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGH SUNRISE.

THE 500 MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AS WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL INTERACT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN
TODAY BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE
THAN 20 TO 25 MPH. PATCHY MORNING FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS COULD SEE THE TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
TODAY...MAINLY NEAR RIO GRANDE CITY AND ZAPATA.

THE MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES OVER THE BAJA REGION TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AS THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO THE BIG BEND AND WEST TEXAS REGION TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...WILL REMOVE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN FOR
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S...SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK 500 MB TROUGH RIDING OVERHEAD WITHIN A
NEARLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN
FACT...STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES THE BRO CWFA WITHIN A
GENERAL RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH 500 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND BUILDING FARTHER
NORTH OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...DRIER
WEATHER WILL RESULT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL STEADILY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THAT
TIME...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL OCCURRING ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE STEADY DISSIPATION OF THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
LESSER CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRIER
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...BUT KNOCKED DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY REGARDING DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS
INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY SHOWS SEAS NEAR 3.9
FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 18 KNOTS. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE DUE TO INCREASING WINDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS AND ROUGHER SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE
ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MOST
LIKELY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY WILL POSSIBLY RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THAT TIME...WITH MARINE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  82  68  79  72 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          85  67  81  68 /  10  10  10  20
HARLINGEN            86  66  83  66 /  10  10  10  20
MCALLEN              88  67  84  70 /  10  10  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      89  67  86  69 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  68  77  73 /  10  10  10  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...CACERES-63
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
MESO/WX4PPT...BILLINGS-58





000
FXUS64 KBRO 300913
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
413 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. LATEST BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 48
KNOTS EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. THE BRO 0Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH AN INVERSION AROUND
2400 FEET. THIS INVERSION ALONG WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTING
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS HAS ALLOWED LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AROUND DAWN AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGH SUNRISE.

THE 500 MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AS WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL INTERACT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN
TODAY BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE
THAN 20 TO 25 MPH. PATCHY MORNING FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS COULD SEE THE TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
TODAY...MAINLY NEAR RIO GRANDE CITY AND ZAPATA.

THE MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES OVER THE BAJA REGION TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AS THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO THE BIG BEND AND WEST TEXAS REGION TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...WILL REMOVE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN FOR
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S...SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK 500 MB TROUGH RIDING OVERHEAD WITHIN A
NEARLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN
FACT...STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES THE BRO CWFA WITHIN A
GENERAL RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH 500 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND BUILDING FARTHER
NORTH OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...DRIER
WEATHER WILL RESULT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL STEADILY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THAT
TIME...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL OCCURRING ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE STEADY DISSIPATION OF THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
LESSER CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRIER
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...BUT KNOCKED DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY REGARDING DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS
INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY SHOWS SEAS NEAR 3.9
FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 18 KNOTS. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE DUE TO INCREASING WINDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS AND ROUGHER SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE
ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MOST
LIKELY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY WILL POSSIBLY RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THAT TIME...WITH MARINE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  82  68  79  72 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          85  67  81  68 /  10  10  10  20
HARLINGEN            86  66  83  66 /  10  10  10  20
MCALLEN              88  67  84  70 /  10  10  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      89  67  86  69 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  68  77  73 /  10  10  10  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...CACERES-63
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
MESO/WX4PPT...BILLINGS-58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 300600 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
100 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT
45 KNOTS EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A
MENTION OF LLWS FOR BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS THROUGH 15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOW CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPING
AROUND SUNRISE. WILL MENTION A TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
11-15Z AT ALL VALLEY TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER
15Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...STRONG WINDS CURRENTLY WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE BUT
SHOULD FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS BY MID EVENING BUT AN INFREQUENT GUST
TO 20 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG BECOMING
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THE VALLEY. VALLEY
TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE FEW-SCT AT 2000 FEET CLOSER TO DAWN.
WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP ON MONDAY BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. TEMPO
MVFR AFTER DAWN THROUGH LATE MORNING AS CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS.

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

MARINE...EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS REAMIN AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED AND
GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...500 MB LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE ITS TRAJECTORY EASTWARD
TODAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK PERTURBATION ENTERS BAJA CA. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOW AN ABUNDANCE
OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE COMBINATION OF A BROAD
HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL
STRENGTHEN THE PGF RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
WITH GUSTY WINDS UP 35 TO 40 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER EASTWARD WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SE REGION WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. WARMEST LOCATIONS COULD SEE CLOSE TO 90S NEAR RIO
GRANDE CITY AND ZAPATA.

AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OVER SOUTHERN REGION OF
TEXAS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE MOVES SOUTH KEEPING A SE FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ADVECT GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WERE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO VARIABLE A
LOT SOONER THAN THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA. CEILINGS COULD LOWER BETWEEN
2500 FEET TO 1500 FEET ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WHERE THE ADVECTION WILL BE GREATER. THIS PATTERN WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH BUT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG KEEPING WINDS
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN 20 TO 25
MPH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLOUD
COVER PREVAILING AND TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND AND
WEST TEXAS REGION TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE MID LEVEL
FLOW OVERHEAD SUPPORTS LIFT. WEAK RIGHT REAR JET ENTRANCE REGION
WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT...WHILE SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WILL NOT DETRACT FROM CONVECTION. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTH. THE GFS IS LESS ROBUST WITH THE IDEA OF CONVECTION
WITH THE DISTURBANCE THAN THE ECMWF...WHOSE GUIDANCE ADVERTISES
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE AT LRD TUESDAY NIGHT. OPTED TO GO A LITTLE
LESS FOR THE CWA WHILE BLENDING INOT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SUGGESTED
TO THE NORTH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CONVECTION LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH A RATHER ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN TAKING OVER OR EVEN A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING UP FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS A PLAINS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE LITTLE UPPER DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH...AND IT LOOKS
MORE LIKE A LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER EVENT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
SOUTH INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF MEXICO. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S...A NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE
80S TO LOWER 90S OF FRIDAY...AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL REIGN NEXT
WEEKEND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND WINDS VEER.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WILL MAINTAINS WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
SCA FOR WINDS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE SHORT
DURATION OF THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...SEAS WILL NOT REACH MORE THAN
5 FEET. TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN...KEEPING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. NO SCA NEEDED BUT POSSIBLE SCEC FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. INTO MONDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM BUT WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH NO SCA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL SUPPORT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT GIVES
WAY THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...BUT THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTACT...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL FOOT OF SWELL
MAY BE ADDED TO WAVE LOCAL HEIGHTS BY THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT
PERSISTS OFFSHORE...CREATING A LONG EASTERLY FETCH.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 300600 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
100 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT
45 KNOTS EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A
MENTION OF LLWS FOR BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS THROUGH 15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOW CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPING
AROUND SUNRISE. WILL MENTION A TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
11-15Z AT ALL VALLEY TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER
15Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...STRONG WINDS CURRENTLY WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE BUT
SHOULD FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS BY MID EVENING BUT AN INFREQUENT GUST
TO 20 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG BECOMING
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THE VALLEY. VALLEY
TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE FEW-SCT AT 2000 FEET CLOSER TO DAWN.
WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP ON MONDAY BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. TEMPO
MVFR AFTER DAWN THROUGH LATE MORNING AS CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS.

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

MARINE...EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS REAMIN AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED AND
GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...500 MB LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE ITS TRAJECTORY EASTWARD
TODAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK PERTURBATION ENTERS BAJA CA. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOW AN ABUNDANCE
OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE COMBINATION OF A BROAD
HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL
STRENGTHEN THE PGF RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
WITH GUSTY WINDS UP 35 TO 40 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER EASTWARD WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SE REGION WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. WARMEST LOCATIONS COULD SEE CLOSE TO 90S NEAR RIO
GRANDE CITY AND ZAPATA.

AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OVER SOUTHERN REGION OF
TEXAS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE MOVES SOUTH KEEPING A SE FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ADVECT GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WERE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO VARIABLE A
LOT SOONER THAN THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA. CEILINGS COULD LOWER BETWEEN
2500 FEET TO 1500 FEET ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WHERE THE ADVECTION WILL BE GREATER. THIS PATTERN WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH BUT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG KEEPING WINDS
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN 20 TO 25
MPH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLOUD
COVER PREVAILING AND TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND AND
WEST TEXAS REGION TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE MID LEVEL
FLOW OVERHEAD SUPPORTS LIFT. WEAK RIGHT REAR JET ENTRANCE REGION
WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT...WHILE SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WILL NOT DETRACT FROM CONVECTION. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTH. THE GFS IS LESS ROBUST WITH THE IDEA OF CONVECTION
WITH THE DISTURBANCE THAN THE ECMWF...WHOSE GUIDANCE ADVERTISES
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE AT LRD TUESDAY NIGHT. OPTED TO GO A LITTLE
LESS FOR THE CWA WHILE BLENDING INOT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SUGGESTED
TO THE NORTH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CONVECTION LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH A RATHER ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN TAKING OVER OR EVEN A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING UP FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS A PLAINS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE LITTLE UPPER DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH...AND IT LOOKS
MORE LIKE A LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER EVENT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
SOUTH INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF MEXICO. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S...A NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE
80S TO LOWER 90S OF FRIDAY...AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL REIGN NEXT
WEEKEND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND WINDS VEER.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WILL MAINTAINS WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
SCA FOR WINDS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE SHORT
DURATION OF THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...SEAS WILL NOT REACH MORE THAN
5 FEET. TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN...KEEPING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. NO SCA NEEDED BUT POSSIBLE SCEC FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. INTO MONDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM BUT WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH NO SCA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL SUPPORT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT GIVES
WAY THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...BUT THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTACT...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL FOOT OF SWELL
MAY BE ADDED TO WAVE LOCAL HEIGHTS BY THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT
PERSISTS OFFSHORE...CREATING A LONG EASTERLY FETCH.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 300600 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
100 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT
45 KNOTS EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A
MENTION OF LLWS FOR BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS THROUGH 15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOW CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPING
AROUND SUNRISE. WILL MENTION A TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
11-15Z AT ALL VALLEY TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER
15Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...STRONG WINDS CURRENTLY WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE BUT
SHOULD FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS BY MID EVENING BUT AN INFREQUENT GUST
TO 20 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG BECOMING
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THE VALLEY. VALLEY
TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE FEW-SCT AT 2000 FEET CLOSER TO DAWN.
WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP ON MONDAY BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. TEMPO
MVFR AFTER DAWN THROUGH LATE MORNING AS CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS.

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

MARINE...EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS REAMIN AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED AND
GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...500 MB LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE ITS TRAJECTORY EASTWARD
TODAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK PERTURBATION ENTERS BAJA CA. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOW AN ABUNDANCE
OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE COMBINATION OF A BROAD
HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL
STRENGTHEN THE PGF RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
WITH GUSTY WINDS UP 35 TO 40 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER EASTWARD WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SE REGION WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. WARMEST LOCATIONS COULD SEE CLOSE TO 90S NEAR RIO
GRANDE CITY AND ZAPATA.

AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OVER SOUTHERN REGION OF
TEXAS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE MOVES SOUTH KEEPING A SE FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ADVECT GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WERE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO VARIABLE A
LOT SOONER THAN THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA. CEILINGS COULD LOWER BETWEEN
2500 FEET TO 1500 FEET ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WHERE THE ADVECTION WILL BE GREATER. THIS PATTERN WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH BUT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG KEEPING WINDS
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN 20 TO 25
MPH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLOUD
COVER PREVAILING AND TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND AND
WEST TEXAS REGION TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE MID LEVEL
FLOW OVERHEAD SUPPORTS LIFT. WEAK RIGHT REAR JET ENTRANCE REGION
WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT...WHILE SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WILL NOT DETRACT FROM CONVECTION. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTH. THE GFS IS LESS ROBUST WITH THE IDEA OF CONVECTION
WITH THE DISTURBANCE THAN THE ECMWF...WHOSE GUIDANCE ADVERTISES
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE AT LRD TUESDAY NIGHT. OPTED TO GO A LITTLE
LESS FOR THE CWA WHILE BLENDING INOT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SUGGESTED
TO THE NORTH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CONVECTION LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH A RATHER ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN TAKING OVER OR EVEN A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING UP FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS A PLAINS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE LITTLE UPPER DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH...AND IT LOOKS
MORE LIKE A LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER EVENT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
SOUTH INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF MEXICO. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S...A NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE
80S TO LOWER 90S OF FRIDAY...AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL REIGN NEXT
WEEKEND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND WINDS VEER.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WILL MAINTAINS WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
SCA FOR WINDS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE SHORT
DURATION OF THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...SEAS WILL NOT REACH MORE THAN
5 FEET. TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN...KEEPING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. NO SCA NEEDED BUT POSSIBLE SCEC FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. INTO MONDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM BUT WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH NO SCA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL SUPPORT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT GIVES
WAY THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...BUT THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTACT...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL FOOT OF SWELL
MAY BE ADDED TO WAVE LOCAL HEIGHTS BY THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT
PERSISTS OFFSHORE...CREATING A LONG EASTERLY FETCH.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 300600 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
100 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT
45 KNOTS EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A
MENTION OF LLWS FOR BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS THROUGH 15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOW CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPING
AROUND SUNRISE. WILL MENTION A TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
11-15Z AT ALL VALLEY TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER
15Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...STRONG WINDS CURRENTLY WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE BUT
SHOULD FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS BY MID EVENING BUT AN INFREQUENT GUST
TO 20 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG BECOMING
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THE VALLEY. VALLEY
TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE FEW-SCT AT 2000 FEET CLOSER TO DAWN.
WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP ON MONDAY BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. TEMPO
MVFR AFTER DAWN THROUGH LATE MORNING AS CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS.

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

MARINE...EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS REAMIN AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED AND
GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...500 MB LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE ITS TRAJECTORY EASTWARD
TODAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK PERTURBATION ENTERS BAJA CA. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOW AN ABUNDANCE
OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE COMBINATION OF A BROAD
HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL
STRENGTHEN THE PGF RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
WITH GUSTY WINDS UP 35 TO 40 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER EASTWARD WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SE REGION WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. WARMEST LOCATIONS COULD SEE CLOSE TO 90S NEAR RIO
GRANDE CITY AND ZAPATA.

AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OVER SOUTHERN REGION OF
TEXAS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE MOVES SOUTH KEEPING A SE FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ADVECT GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WERE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO VARIABLE A
LOT SOONER THAN THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA. CEILINGS COULD LOWER BETWEEN
2500 FEET TO 1500 FEET ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WHERE THE ADVECTION WILL BE GREATER. THIS PATTERN WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH BUT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG KEEPING WINDS
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN 20 TO 25
MPH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLOUD
COVER PREVAILING AND TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND AND
WEST TEXAS REGION TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE MID LEVEL
FLOW OVERHEAD SUPPORTS LIFT. WEAK RIGHT REAR JET ENTRANCE REGION
WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT...WHILE SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WILL NOT DETRACT FROM CONVECTION. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTH. THE GFS IS LESS ROBUST WITH THE IDEA OF CONVECTION
WITH THE DISTURBANCE THAN THE ECMWF...WHOSE GUIDANCE ADVERTISES
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE AT LRD TUESDAY NIGHT. OPTED TO GO A LITTLE
LESS FOR THE CWA WHILE BLENDING INOT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SUGGESTED
TO THE NORTH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CONVECTION LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH A RATHER ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN TAKING OVER OR EVEN A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING UP FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS A PLAINS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE LITTLE UPPER DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH...AND IT LOOKS
MORE LIKE A LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER EVENT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
SOUTH INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF MEXICO. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S...A NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE
80S TO LOWER 90S OF FRIDAY...AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL REIGN NEXT
WEEKEND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND WINDS VEER.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WILL MAINTAINS WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
SCA FOR WINDS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE SHORT
DURATION OF THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...SEAS WILL NOT REACH MORE THAN
5 FEET. TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN...KEEPING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. NO SCA NEEDED BUT POSSIBLE SCEC FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. INTO MONDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM BUT WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH NO SCA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL SUPPORT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT GIVES
WAY THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...BUT THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTACT...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL FOOT OF SWELL
MAY BE ADDED TO WAVE LOCAL HEIGHTS BY THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT
PERSISTS OFFSHORE...CREATING A LONG EASTERLY FETCH.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 292330
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
630 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG WINDS CURRENTLY WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE BUT
SHOULD FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS BY MID EVENING BUT AN INFREQUENT GUST
TO 20 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG BECOMING
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THE VALLEY. VALLEY
TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE FEW-SCT AT 2000 FEET CLOSER TO DAWN.
WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP ON MONDAY BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. TEMPO
MVFR AFTER DAWN THROUGH LATE MORNING AS CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.MARINE...EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA NADRE AND
NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS REAMIN AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED AND
GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...500 MB LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE ITS TRAJECTORY EASTWARD
TODAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK PERTURBATION ENTERS BAJA CA. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOW AN ABUNDANCE
OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE COMBINATION OF A BROAD
HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL
STRENGTHEN THE PGF RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
WITH GUSTY WINDS UP 35 TO 40 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER EASTWARD WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SE REGION WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. WARMEST LOCATIONS COULD SEE CLOSE TO 90S NEAR RIO
GRANDE CITY AND ZAPATA.

AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OVER SOUTHERN REGION OF
TEXAS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE MOVES SOUTH KEEPING A SE FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ADVECT GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WERE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO VARIABLE A
LOT SOONER THAN THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA. CEILINGS COULD LOWER BETWEEN
2500 FEET TO 1500 FEET ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WHERE THE ADVECTION WILL BE GREATER. THIS PATTERN WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH BUT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG KEEPING WINDS
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN 20 TO 25
MPH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLOUD
COVER PREVAILING AND TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND AND
WEST TEXAS REGION TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE MID LEVEL
FLOW OVERHEAD SUPPORTS LIFT. WEAK RIGHT REAR JET ENTRANCE REGION
WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT...WHILE SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WILL NOT DETRACT FROM CONVECTION. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTH. THE GFS IS LESS ROBUST WITH THE IDEA OF CONVECTION
WITH THE DISTURBANCE THAN THE ECMWF...WHOSE GUIDANCE ADVERTISES
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE AT LRD TUESDAY NIGHT. OPTED TO GO A LITTLE
LESS FOR THE CWA WHILE BLENDING INOT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SUGGESTED
TO THE NORTH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CONVECTION LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH A RATHER ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN TAKING OVER OR EVEN A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING UP FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS A PLAINS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE LITTLE UPPER DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH...AND IT LOOKS
MORE LIKE A LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER EVENT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
SOUTH INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF MEXICO. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S...A NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE
80S TO LOWER 90S OF FRIDAY...AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL REIGN NEXT
WEEKEND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND WINDS VEER.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WILL MAINTAINS WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
SCA FOR WINDS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE SHORT
DURATION OF THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...SEAS WILL NOT REACH MORE THAN
5 FEET. TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN...KEEPING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. NO SCA NEEDED BUT POSSIBLE SCEC FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. INTO MONDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM BUT WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH NO SCA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL SUPPORT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT GIVES
WAY THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...BUT THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTACT...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL FOOT OF SWELL
MAY BE ADDED TO WAVE LOCAL HEIGHTS BY THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT
PERSISTS OFFSHORE...CREATING A LONG EASTERLY FETCH.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55




000
FXUS64 KBRO 292330
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
630 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG WINDS CURRENTLY WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE BUT
SHOULD FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS BY MID EVENING BUT AN INFREQUENT GUST
TO 20 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG BECOMING
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THE VALLEY. VALLEY
TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE FEW-SCT AT 2000 FEET CLOSER TO DAWN.
WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP ON MONDAY BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. TEMPO
MVFR AFTER DAWN THROUGH LATE MORNING AS CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.MARINE...EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA NADRE AND
NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS REAMIN AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED AND
GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...500 MB LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE ITS TRAJECTORY EASTWARD
TODAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK PERTURBATION ENTERS BAJA CA. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOW AN ABUNDANCE
OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE COMBINATION OF A BROAD
HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL
STRENGTHEN THE PGF RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
WITH GUSTY WINDS UP 35 TO 40 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER EASTWARD WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SE REGION WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. WARMEST LOCATIONS COULD SEE CLOSE TO 90S NEAR RIO
GRANDE CITY AND ZAPATA.

AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OVER SOUTHERN REGION OF
TEXAS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE MOVES SOUTH KEEPING A SE FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ADVECT GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WERE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO VARIABLE A
LOT SOONER THAN THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA. CEILINGS COULD LOWER BETWEEN
2500 FEET TO 1500 FEET ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WHERE THE ADVECTION WILL BE GREATER. THIS PATTERN WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH BUT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG KEEPING WINDS
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN 20 TO 25
MPH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLOUD
COVER PREVAILING AND TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND AND
WEST TEXAS REGION TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE MID LEVEL
FLOW OVERHEAD SUPPORTS LIFT. WEAK RIGHT REAR JET ENTRANCE REGION
WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT...WHILE SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WILL NOT DETRACT FROM CONVECTION. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTH. THE GFS IS LESS ROBUST WITH THE IDEA OF CONVECTION
WITH THE DISTURBANCE THAN THE ECMWF...WHOSE GUIDANCE ADVERTISES
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE AT LRD TUESDAY NIGHT. OPTED TO GO A LITTLE
LESS FOR THE CWA WHILE BLENDING INOT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SUGGESTED
TO THE NORTH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CONVECTION LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH A RATHER ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN TAKING OVER OR EVEN A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING UP FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS A PLAINS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE LITTLE UPPER DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH...AND IT LOOKS
MORE LIKE A LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER EVENT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
SOUTH INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF MEXICO. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S...A NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE
80S TO LOWER 90S OF FRIDAY...AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL REIGN NEXT
WEEKEND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND WINDS VEER.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WILL MAINTAINS WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
SCA FOR WINDS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE SHORT
DURATION OF THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...SEAS WILL NOT REACH MORE THAN
5 FEET. TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN...KEEPING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. NO SCA NEEDED BUT POSSIBLE SCEC FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. INTO MONDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM BUT WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH NO SCA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL SUPPORT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT GIVES
WAY THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...BUT THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTACT...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL FOOT OF SWELL
MAY BE ADDED TO WAVE LOCAL HEIGHTS BY THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT
PERSISTS OFFSHORE...CREATING A LONG EASTERLY FETCH.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55





000
FXUS64 KBRO 291950
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...500 MB LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE ITS TRAJECTORY EASTWARD
TODAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK PERTURBATION ENTERS BAJA CA. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOW AN ABUNDANCE
OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE COMBINATION OF A BROAD
HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL
STRENGTHEN THE PGF RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
WITH GUSTY WINDS UP 35 TO 40 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER EASTWARD WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SE REGION WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. WARMEST LOCATIONS COULD SEE CLOSE TO 90S NEAR RIO
GRANDE CITY AND ZAPATA.

AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OVER SOUTHERN REGION OF
TEXAS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE MOVES SOUTH KEEPING A SE FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ADVECT GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WERE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO VARIABLE A
LOT SOONER THAN THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA. CEILINGS COULD LOWER BETWEEN
2500 FEET TO 1500 FEET ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WHERE THE ADVECTION WILL BE GREATER. THIS PATTERN WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH BUT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG KEEPING WINDS
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN 20 TO 25
MPH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLOUD
COVER PREVAILING AND TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND AND
WEST TEXAS REGION TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE MID LEVEL
FLOW OVERHEAD SUPPORTS LIFT. WEAK RIGHT REAR JET ENTRANCE REGION
WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT...WHILE SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WILL NOT DETRACT FROM CONVECTION. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTH. THE GFS IS LESS ROBUST WITH THE IDEA OF CONVECTION
WITH THE DISTURBANCE THAN THE ECMWF...WHOSE GUIDANCE ADVERTISES
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE AT LRD TUESDAY NIGHT. OPTED TO GO A LITTLE
LESS FOR THE CWA WHILE BLENDING INOT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SUGGESTED
TO THE NORTH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CONVECTION LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH A RATHER ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN TAKING OVER OR EVEN A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING UP FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS A PLAINS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE LITTLE UPPER DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH...AND IT LOOKS
MORE LIKE A LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER EVENT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
SOUTH INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF MEXICO. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S...A NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE
80S TO LOWER 90S OF FRIDAY...AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL REIGN NEXT
WEEKEND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND WINDS VEER.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WILL MAINTAINS WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
SCA FOR WINDS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE SHORT
DURATION OF THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...SEAS WILL NOT REACH MORE THAN
5 FEET. TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN...KEEPING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. NO SCA NEEDED BUT POSSIBLE SCEC FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. INTO MONDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM BUT WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH NO SCA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL SUPPORT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT GIVES
WAY THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...BUT THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTACT...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL FOOT OF SWELL
MAY BE ADDED TO WAVE LOCAL HEIGHTS BY THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT
PERSISTS OFFSHORE...CREATING A LONG EASTERLY FETCH.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60/54/65




000
FXUS64 KBRO 291950
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...500 MB LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE ITS TRAJECTORY EASTWARD
TODAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK PERTURBATION ENTERS BAJA CA. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOW AN ABUNDANCE
OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE COMBINATION OF A BROAD
HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL
STRENGTHEN THE PGF RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
WITH GUSTY WINDS UP 35 TO 40 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER EASTWARD WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SE REGION WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. WARMEST LOCATIONS COULD SEE CLOSE TO 90S NEAR RIO
GRANDE CITY AND ZAPATA.

AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OVER SOUTHERN REGION OF
TEXAS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE MOVES SOUTH KEEPING A SE FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ADVECT GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WERE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO VARIABLE A
LOT SOONER THAN THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA. CEILINGS COULD LOWER BETWEEN
2500 FEET TO 1500 FEET ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WHERE THE ADVECTION WILL BE GREATER. THIS PATTERN WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH BUT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG KEEPING WINDS
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN 20 TO 25
MPH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLOUD
COVER PREVAILING AND TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND AND
WEST TEXAS REGION TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE MID LEVEL
FLOW OVERHEAD SUPPORTS LIFT. WEAK RIGHT REAR JET ENTRANCE REGION
WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT...WHILE SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WILL NOT DETRACT FROM CONVECTION. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTH. THE GFS IS LESS ROBUST WITH THE IDEA OF CONVECTION
WITH THE DISTURBANCE THAN THE ECMWF...WHOSE GUIDANCE ADVERTISES
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE AT LRD TUESDAY NIGHT. OPTED TO GO A LITTLE
LESS FOR THE CWA WHILE BLENDING INOT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SUGGESTED
TO THE NORTH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CONVECTION LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH A RATHER ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN TAKING OVER OR EVEN A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING UP FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS A PLAINS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE LITTLE UPPER DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH...AND IT LOOKS
MORE LIKE A LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER EVENT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
SOUTH INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF MEXICO. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S...A NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE
80S TO LOWER 90S OF FRIDAY...AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL REIGN NEXT
WEEKEND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND WINDS VEER.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WILL MAINTAINS WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
SCA FOR WINDS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE SHORT
DURATION OF THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...SEAS WILL NOT REACH MORE THAN
5 FEET. TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN...KEEPING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. NO SCA NEEDED BUT POSSIBLE SCEC FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. INTO MONDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM BUT WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH NO SCA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL SUPPORT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT GIVES
WAY THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...BUT THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTACT...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL FOOT OF SWELL
MAY BE ADDED TO WAVE LOCAL HEIGHTS BY THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT
PERSISTS OFFSHORE...CREATING A LONG EASTERLY FETCH.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60/54/65





000
FXUS64 KBRO 291950
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...500 MB LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE ITS TRAJECTORY EASTWARD
TODAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK PERTURBATION ENTERS BAJA CA. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOW AN ABUNDANCE
OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE COMBINATION OF A BROAD
HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL
STRENGTHEN THE PGF RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
WITH GUSTY WINDS UP 35 TO 40 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER EASTWARD WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SE REGION WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. WARMEST LOCATIONS COULD SEE CLOSE TO 90S NEAR RIO
GRANDE CITY AND ZAPATA.

AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OVER SOUTHERN REGION OF
TEXAS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE MOVES SOUTH KEEPING A SE FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ADVECT GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WERE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO VARIABLE A
LOT SOONER THAN THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA. CEILINGS COULD LOWER BETWEEN
2500 FEET TO 1500 FEET ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WHERE THE ADVECTION WILL BE GREATER. THIS PATTERN WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH BUT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG KEEPING WINDS
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN 20 TO 25
MPH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLOUD
COVER PREVAILING AND TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND AND
WEST TEXAS REGION TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE MID LEVEL
FLOW OVERHEAD SUPPORTS LIFT. WEAK RIGHT REAR JET ENTRANCE REGION
WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT...WHILE SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WILL NOT DETRACT FROM CONVECTION. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTH. THE GFS IS LESS ROBUST WITH THE IDEA OF CONVECTION
WITH THE DISTURBANCE THAN THE ECMWF...WHOSE GUIDANCE ADVERTISES
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE AT LRD TUESDAY NIGHT. OPTED TO GO A LITTLE
LESS FOR THE CWA WHILE BLENDING INOT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SUGGESTED
TO THE NORTH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CONVECTION LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH A RATHER ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN TAKING OVER OR EVEN A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING UP FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS A PLAINS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE LITTLE UPPER DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH...AND IT LOOKS
MORE LIKE A LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER EVENT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
SOUTH INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF MEXICO. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S...A NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE
80S TO LOWER 90S OF FRIDAY...AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL REIGN NEXT
WEEKEND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND WINDS VEER.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WILL MAINTAINS WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
SCA FOR WINDS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE SHORT
DURATION OF THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...SEAS WILL NOT REACH MORE THAN
5 FEET. TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN...KEEPING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. NO SCA NEEDED BUT POSSIBLE SCEC FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. INTO MONDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM BUT WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH NO SCA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL SUPPORT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT GIVES
WAY THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...BUT THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTACT...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL FOOT OF SWELL
MAY BE ADDED TO WAVE LOCAL HEIGHTS BY THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT
PERSISTS OFFSHORE...CREATING A LONG EASTERLY FETCH.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60/54/65





000
FXUS64 KBRO 291950
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...500 MB LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE ITS TRAJECTORY EASTWARD
TODAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK PERTURBATION ENTERS BAJA CA. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOW AN ABUNDANCE
OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE COMBINATION OF A BROAD
HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL
STRENGTHEN THE PGF RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
WITH GUSTY WINDS UP 35 TO 40 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER EASTWARD WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SE REGION WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. WARMEST LOCATIONS COULD SEE CLOSE TO 90S NEAR RIO
GRANDE CITY AND ZAPATA.

AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OVER SOUTHERN REGION OF
TEXAS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE MOVES SOUTH KEEPING A SE FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ADVECT GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WERE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO VARIABLE A
LOT SOONER THAN THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA. CEILINGS COULD LOWER BETWEEN
2500 FEET TO 1500 FEET ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WHERE THE ADVECTION WILL BE GREATER. THIS PATTERN WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH BUT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG KEEPING WINDS
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN 20 TO 25
MPH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLOUD
COVER PREVAILING AND TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND AND
WEST TEXAS REGION TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE MID LEVEL
FLOW OVERHEAD SUPPORTS LIFT. WEAK RIGHT REAR JET ENTRANCE REGION
WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT...WHILE SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WILL NOT DETRACT FROM CONVECTION. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTH. THE GFS IS LESS ROBUST WITH THE IDEA OF CONVECTION
WITH THE DISTURBANCE THAN THE ECMWF...WHOSE GUIDANCE ADVERTISES
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE AT LRD TUESDAY NIGHT. OPTED TO GO A LITTLE
LESS FOR THE CWA WHILE BLENDING INOT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SUGGESTED
TO THE NORTH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CONVECTION LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH A RATHER ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN TAKING OVER OR EVEN A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING UP FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS A PLAINS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE LITTLE UPPER DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH...AND IT LOOKS
MORE LIKE A LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER EVENT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
SOUTH INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF MEXICO. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S...A NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE
80S TO LOWER 90S OF FRIDAY...AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL REIGN NEXT
WEEKEND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND WINDS VEER.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WILL MAINTAINS WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
SCA FOR WINDS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE SHORT
DURATION OF THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...SEAS WILL NOT REACH MORE THAN
5 FEET. TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN...KEEPING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. NO SCA NEEDED BUT POSSIBLE SCEC FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. INTO MONDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM BUT WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH NO SCA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL SUPPORT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT GIVES
WAY THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...BUT THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTACT...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL FOOT OF SWELL
MAY BE ADDED TO WAVE LOCAL HEIGHTS BY THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT
PERSISTS OFFSHORE...CREATING A LONG EASTERLY FETCH.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60/54/65




000
FXUS64 KBRO 291754
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1254 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LATEST VIS SATELLITE OBSERVATION CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE SE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHT NEAR THE COAST WITH FEW TO SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING.
TONIGHT...THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH AN INVERSION DEVELOPING AND A MODERATE MOISTURE
ADVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
AROUND TO MVFR INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THE CLOUD COVER
INCREASES AND LIGHT WINDS SET UP FURTHER INLAND IN THE RANCHLANDS
...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS. SE WINDS INCREASE AFTER 15Z DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 821 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG WINDS OF 40 KNOTS
AT 950 MB AND IN THE BRO VWP SHOWING 45 KNOTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. ONLY ADDED SCA FOR WINDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE
UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TODAY PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS AND NO
CHANCE OF RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 45 KNOTS
EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS
IN THE EARLY MORNING PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. BOTH
THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE HINT AT A RETURN OF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLD DECKS AROUND 2500 FEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59




000
FXUS64 KBRO 291754
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1254 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LATEST VIS SATELLITE OBSERVATION CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE SE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHT NEAR THE COAST WITH FEW TO SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING.
TONIGHT...THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH AN INVERSION DEVELOPING AND A MODERATE MOISTURE
ADVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
AROUND TO MVFR INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THE CLOUD COVER
INCREASES AND LIGHT WINDS SET UP FURTHER INLAND IN THE RANCHLANDS
...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS. SE WINDS INCREASE AFTER 15Z DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 821 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG WINDS OF 40 KNOTS
AT 950 MB AND IN THE BRO VWP SHOWING 45 KNOTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. ONLY ADDED SCA FOR WINDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE
UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TODAY PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS AND NO
CHANCE OF RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 45 KNOTS
EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS
IN THE EARLY MORNING PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. BOTH
THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE HINT AT A RETURN OF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLD DECKS AROUND 2500 FEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59





000
FXUS64 KBRO 291754
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1254 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LATEST VIS SATELLITE OBSERVATION CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE SE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHT NEAR THE COAST WITH FEW TO SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING.
TONIGHT...THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH AN INVERSION DEVELOPING AND A MODERATE MOISTURE
ADVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
AROUND TO MVFR INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THE CLOUD COVER
INCREASES AND LIGHT WINDS SET UP FURTHER INLAND IN THE RANCHLANDS
...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS. SE WINDS INCREASE AFTER 15Z DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 821 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG WINDS OF 40 KNOTS
AT 950 MB AND IN THE BRO VWP SHOWING 45 KNOTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. ONLY ADDED SCA FOR WINDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE
UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TODAY PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS AND NO
CHANCE OF RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 45 KNOTS
EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS
IN THE EARLY MORNING PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. BOTH
THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE HINT AT A RETURN OF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLD DECKS AROUND 2500 FEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59





000
FXUS64 KBRO 291754
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1254 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LATEST VIS SATELLITE OBSERVATION CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE SE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHT NEAR THE COAST WITH FEW TO SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING.
TONIGHT...THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH AN INVERSION DEVELOPING AND A MODERATE MOISTURE
ADVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
AROUND TO MVFR INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THE CLOUD COVER
INCREASES AND LIGHT WINDS SET UP FURTHER INLAND IN THE RANCHLANDS
...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS. SE WINDS INCREASE AFTER 15Z DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 821 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG WINDS OF 40 KNOTS
AT 950 MB AND IN THE BRO VWP SHOWING 45 KNOTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. ONLY ADDED SCA FOR WINDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE
UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TODAY PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS AND NO
CHANCE OF RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 45 KNOTS
EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS
IN THE EARLY MORNING PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. BOTH
THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE HINT AT A RETURN OF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLD DECKS AROUND 2500 FEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59




000
FXUS64 KBRO 291321
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
821 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG WINDS OF 40 KNOTS
AT 950 MB AND IN THE BRO VWP SHOWING 45 KNOTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. ONLY ADDED SCA FOR WINDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE
UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TODAY PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS AND NO
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 45 KNOTS
EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS
IN THE EARLY MORNING PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. BOTH
THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE HINT AT A RETURN OF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLD DECKS AROUND 2500 FEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59





000
FXUS64 KBRO 291321
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
821 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG WINDS OF 40 KNOTS
AT 950 MB AND IN THE BRO VWP SHOWING 45 KNOTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. ONLY ADDED SCA FOR WINDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE
UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TODAY PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS AND NO
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 45 KNOTS
EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS
IN THE EARLY MORNING PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. BOTH
THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE HINT AT A RETURN OF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLD DECKS AROUND 2500 FEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59




000
FXUS64 KBRO 291321
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
821 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG WINDS OF 40 KNOTS
AT 950 MB AND IN THE BRO VWP SHOWING 45 KNOTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. ONLY ADDED SCA FOR WINDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE
UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TODAY PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS AND NO
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 45 KNOTS
EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS
IN THE EARLY MORNING PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. BOTH
THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE HINT AT A RETURN OF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLD DECKS AROUND 2500 FEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59




000
FXUS64 KBRO 291321
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
821 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG WINDS OF 40 KNOTS
AT 950 MB AND IN THE BRO VWP SHOWING 45 KNOTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. ONLY ADDED SCA FOR WINDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE
UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TODAY PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS AND NO
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 45 KNOTS
EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS
IN THE EARLY MORNING PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. BOTH
THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE HINT AT A RETURN OF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLD DECKS AROUND 2500 FEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59





000
FXUS64 KBRO 291204 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
704 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 45 KNOTS
EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS
IN THE EARLY MORNING PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. BOTH
THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE HINT AT A RETURN OF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLD DECKS AROUND 2500 FEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  68  80  70 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          82  68  83  69 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  68  85  67 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              86  67  87  69 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  66  88  68 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  69  78  69 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 291204 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
704 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 45 KNOTS
EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS
IN THE EARLY MORNING PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. BOTH
THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE HINT AT A RETURN OF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLD DECKS AROUND 2500 FEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  68  80  70 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          82  68  83  69 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  68  85  67 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              86  67  87  69 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  66  88  68 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  69  78  69 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...58





000
FXUS64 KBRO 291204 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
704 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 45 KNOTS
EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS
IN THE EARLY MORNING PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. BOTH
THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE HINT AT A RETURN OF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLD DECKS AROUND 2500 FEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  68  80  70 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          82  68  83  69 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  68  85  67 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              86  67  87  69 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  66  88  68 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  69  78  69 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 290931
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  68  80  70 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          82  68  83  69 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  68  85  67 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              86  67  87  69 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  66  88  68 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  69  78  69 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58





000
FXUS64 KBRO 290931
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  68  80  70 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          82  68  83  69 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  68  85  67 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              86  67  87  69 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  66  88  68 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  69  78  69 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 290929
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  68  80  70 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          82  68  83  69 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  68  85  67 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              86  67  87  69 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  66  88  68 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  69  78  69 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 290929
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  68  80  70 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          82  68  83  69 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  68  85  67 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              86  67  87  69 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  66  88  68 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  69  78  69 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58





000
FXUS64 KBRO 290602 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
102 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV AIRPORTS FROM LATE
THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE BRO
VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT AROUND 45 KNOTS EVIDENT
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS IN THE
OVERNIGHT PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE TAF
PERIOD IS WINDS ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR
WEST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE BY SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
ON SUNDAY WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 2000 FEET COULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AOA 3000 FEET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL HELP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST AND HELP INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO
PRECLUDE ANY FOG FOR FORMING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SUNDAY AS MET/MAV CONTINUE TO INDICATE
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LITTLE
CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL
KEEP ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY THEN EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE PASSING BY
TROUGH WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH BUT CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED AS PWATS
APPROACH 1.6 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY
AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT WILL REBOUND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CURRENTLY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WELL. SCEC FOR LAGUNA MADRE SHOULD BE DROPPED THIS
EVENING BUT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO INCREASE TO SCEC
CRITERIA. SUNDAY APPEARS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MET ACROSS
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND BORDERLINE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SCEC POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  68  78  70 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          84  67  84  69 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  66  85  67 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN              86  67  88  69 /   0   0  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  65  89  68 /   0   0   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  69  76  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 290602 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
102 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV AIRPORTS FROM LATE
THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE BRO
VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT AROUND 45 KNOTS EVIDENT
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS IN THE
OVERNIGHT PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE TAF
PERIOD IS WINDS ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR
WEST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE BY SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
ON SUNDAY WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 2000 FEET COULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AOA 3000 FEET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL HELP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST AND HELP INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO
PRECLUDE ANY FOG FOR FORMING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SUNDAY AS MET/MAV CONTINUE TO INDICATE
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LITTLE
CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL
KEEP ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY THEN EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE PASSING BY
TROUGH WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH BUT CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED AS PWATS
APPROACH 1.6 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY
AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT WILL REBOUND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CURRENTLY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WELL. SCEC FOR LAGUNA MADRE SHOULD BE DROPPED THIS
EVENING BUT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO INCREASE TO SCEC
CRITERIA. SUNDAY APPEARS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MET ACROSS
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND BORDERLINE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SCEC POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  68  78  70 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          84  67  84  69 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  66  85  67 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN              86  67  88  69 /   0   0  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  65  89  68 /   0   0   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  69  76  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 290602 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
102 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV AIRPORTS FROM LATE
THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE BRO
VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT AROUND 45 KNOTS EVIDENT
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS IN THE
OVERNIGHT PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE TAF
PERIOD IS WINDS ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR
WEST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE BY SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
ON SUNDAY WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 2000 FEET COULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AOA 3000 FEET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL HELP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST AND HELP INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO
PRECLUDE ANY FOG FOR FORMING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SUNDAY AS MET/MAV CONTINUE TO INDICATE
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LITTLE
CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL
KEEP ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY THEN EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE PASSING BY
TROUGH WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH BUT CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED AS PWATS
APPROACH 1.6 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY
AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT WILL REBOUND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CURRENTLY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WELL. SCEC FOR LAGUNA MADRE SHOULD BE DROPPED THIS
EVENING BUT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO INCREASE TO SCEC
CRITERIA. SUNDAY APPEARS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MET ACROSS
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND BORDERLINE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SCEC POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  68  78  70 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          84  67  84  69 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  66  85  67 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN              86  67  88  69 /   0   0  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  65  89  68 /   0   0   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  69  76  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 290602 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
102 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV AIRPORTS FROM LATE
THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE BRO
VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT AROUND 45 KNOTS EVIDENT
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS IN THE
OVERNIGHT PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE TAF
PERIOD IS WINDS ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR
WEST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE BY SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
ON SUNDAY WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 2000 FEET COULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AOA 3000 FEET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL HELP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST AND HELP INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO
PRECLUDE ANY FOG FOR FORMING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SUNDAY AS MET/MAV CONTINUE TO INDICATE
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LITTLE
CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL
KEEP ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY THEN EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE PASSING BY
TROUGH WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH BUT CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED AS PWATS
APPROACH 1.6 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY
AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT WILL REBOUND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CURRENTLY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WELL. SCEC FOR LAGUNA MADRE SHOULD BE DROPPED THIS
EVENING BUT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO INCREASE TO SCEC
CRITERIA. SUNDAY APPEARS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MET ACROSS
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND BORDERLINE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SCEC POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  68  78  70 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          84  67  84  69 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  66  85  67 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN              86  67  88  69 /   0   0  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  65  89  68 /   0   0   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  69  76  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 282331
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE TAF
PERIOD IS WINDS ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR
WEST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE BY SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
ON SUNDAY WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 2000 FEET COULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AOA 3000 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL HELP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST AND HELP INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO
PRECLUDE ANY FOG FOR FORMING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SUNDAY AS MET/MAV CONTINUE TO INDICATE
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LITTLE
CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL
KEEP ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY THEN EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE PASSING BY
TROUGH WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH BUT CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED AS PWATS
APPROACH 1.6 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY
AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT WILL REBOUND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CURRENTLY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WELL. SCEC FOR LAGUNA MADRE SHOULD BE DROPPED THIS
EVENING BUT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO INCREASE TO SCEC
CRITERIA. SUNDAY APPEARS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MET ACROSS
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND BORDERLINE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SCEC POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55





000
FXUS64 KBRO 282331
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE TAF
PERIOD IS WINDS ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR
WEST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE BY SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
ON SUNDAY WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 2000 FEET COULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AOA 3000 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL HELP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST AND HELP INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO
PRECLUDE ANY FOG FOR FORMING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SUNDAY AS MET/MAV CONTINUE TO INDICATE
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LITTLE
CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL
KEEP ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY THEN EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE PASSING BY
TROUGH WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH BUT CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED AS PWATS
APPROACH 1.6 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY
AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT WILL REBOUND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CURRENTLY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WELL. SCEC FOR LAGUNA MADRE SHOULD BE DROPPED THIS
EVENING BUT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO INCREASE TO SCEC
CRITERIA. SUNDAY APPEARS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MET ACROSS
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND BORDERLINE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SCEC POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55




000
FXUS64 KBRO 282331
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE TAF
PERIOD IS WINDS ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR
WEST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE BY SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
ON SUNDAY WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 2000 FEET COULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AOA 3000 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL HELP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST AND HELP INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO
PRECLUDE ANY FOG FOR FORMING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SUNDAY AS MET/MAV CONTINUE TO INDICATE
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LITTLE
CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL
KEEP ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY THEN EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE PASSING BY
TROUGH WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH BUT CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED AS PWATS
APPROACH 1.6 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY
AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT WILL REBOUND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CURRENTLY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WELL. SCEC FOR LAGUNA MADRE SHOULD BE DROPPED THIS
EVENING BUT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO INCREASE TO SCEC
CRITERIA. SUNDAY APPEARS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MET ACROSS
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND BORDERLINE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SCEC POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55





000
FXUS64 KBRO 282331
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE TAF
PERIOD IS WINDS ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR
WEST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE BY SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
ON SUNDAY WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 2000 FEET COULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AOA 3000 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL HELP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST AND HELP INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO
PRECLUDE ANY FOG FOR FORMING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SUNDAY AS MET/MAV CONTINUE TO INDICATE
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LITTLE
CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL
KEEP ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY THEN EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE PASSING BY
TROUGH WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH BUT CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED AS PWATS
APPROACH 1.6 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY
AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT WILL REBOUND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CURRENTLY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WELL. SCEC FOR LAGUNA MADRE SHOULD BE DROPPED THIS
EVENING BUT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO INCREASE TO SCEC
CRITERIA. SUNDAY APPEARS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MET ACROSS
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND BORDERLINE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SCEC POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55




000
FXUS64 KBRO 282003
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL HELP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST AND HELP INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO
PRECLUDE ANY FOG FOR FORMING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SUNDAY AS MET/MAV CONTINUE TO INDICATE
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LITTLE
CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL
KEEP ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY THEN EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE PASSING BY
TROUGH WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH BUT CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED AS PWATS
APPROACH 1.6 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY
AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT WILL REBOUND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CURRENTLY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WELL. SCEC FOR LAGUNA MADRE SHOULD BE DROPPED THIS
EVENING BUT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO INCREASE TO SCEC
CRITERIA. SUNDAY APPEARS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MET ACROSS
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND BORDERLINE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SCEC POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  63  79  68  78 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          63  84  67  84 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            62  84  66  85 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              61  86  67  88 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      60  88  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   68  77  69  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT/LONG TERM...55/59
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BILLINGS/BIRCHFIELD





000
FXUS64 KBRO 281732
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1232 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DRY ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR ALL THREE REGIONAL AIRPORTS.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS GUSTING UP 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON LOWER
AFTER SUNSET WITH SUSTAINED REMAIN BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS. GB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY ATMS IN PLACE
WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 0.31 INCHES. MODEL 1000-500 MB RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS. THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS FROM AROUND 16Z THROUGH
AROUND 01Z TODAY. THE PGF WILL DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING THE SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE CONDITIONS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE 1000-500 MB MEAN RH VALUES REMAIN PRETTY REDUCED THROUGH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. SO EXPECT SUNSHINE/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 3 PERIODS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS MORE
EASTWARD THE S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE RGV WHICH
IN COMBINATION WITH THE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL WARM UP THE TEMPS
PERETTY QUICKLY TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE NAM HAS MORE OF A COOLER
BIAS IN THE SHORT TERM MAXES VERSUS THE GFS MAV NUMBERS WHICH ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WARMING THINGS UP. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RETURNING WAA AM LEANING TOWARDS THE
WARMER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH TOMORROW.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE BAJA REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S... EXCEPT FOR THE 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE LATEST GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WEST TO EAST FLOW
OF THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE. CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE HELD
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES.

RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY IN THE 80S
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PGF ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTLINE WILL START TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ALTHOUGH THE PGF
INCREASES THE BAY AND GULF WATERS TEMPS IN THE BAY AND GULF REMAIN
FAIRLY COOL IN THE 66-68 DEGREE RANGE. THE COOLER WATER TEMPS NEAR
PADRE ISLAND WILL TEND TO HOLD DOWN HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRENGTHENING PGF. SO WILL NOT POST ANY SCAS AT THIS
TIME AND WILL MENTION ONLY SCEC CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND THE
GULF WATERS. THE PGF WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS BUT EXPECT THE COOLER BAY AND GULF WATER TEMPS TO TEND
TO HOLD BACK THE LOW LEVEL MIXING.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...AVIATION/SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KBRO 281732
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1232 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DRY ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR ALL THREE REGIONAL AIRPORTS.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS GUSTING UP 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON LOWER
AFTER SUNSET WITH SUSTAINED REMAIN BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS. GB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY ATMS IN PLACE
WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 0.31 INCHES. MODEL 1000-500 MB RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS. THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS FROM AROUND 16Z THROUGH
AROUND 01Z TODAY. THE PGF WILL DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING THE SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE CONDITIONS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE 1000-500 MB MEAN RH VALUES REMAIN PRETTY REDUCED THROUGH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. SO EXPECT SUNSHINE/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 3 PERIODS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS MORE
EASTWARD THE S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE RGV WHICH
IN COMBINATION WITH THE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL WARM UP THE TEMPS
PERETTY QUICKLY TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE NAM HAS MORE OF A COOLER
BIAS IN THE SHORT TERM MAXES VERSUS THE GFS MAV NUMBERS WHICH ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WARMING THINGS UP. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RETURNING WAA AM LEANING TOWARDS THE
WARMER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH TOMORROW.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE BAJA REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S... EXCEPT FOR THE 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE LATEST GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WEST TO EAST FLOW
OF THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE. CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE HELD
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES.

RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY IN THE 80S
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PGF ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTLINE WILL START TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ALTHOUGH THE PGF
INCREASES THE BAY AND GULF WATERS TEMPS IN THE BAY AND GULF REMAIN
FAIRLY COOL IN THE 66-68 DEGREE RANGE. THE COOLER WATER TEMPS NEAR
PADRE ISLAND WILL TEND TO HOLD DOWN HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRENGTHENING PGF. SO WILL NOT POST ANY SCAS AT THIS
TIME AND WILL MENTION ONLY SCEC CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND THE
GULF WATERS. THE PGF WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS BUT EXPECT THE COOLER BAY AND GULF WATER TEMPS TO TEND
TO HOLD BACK THE LOW LEVEL MIXING.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...AVIATION/SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KBRO 281732
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1232 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DRY ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR ALL THREE REGIONAL AIRPORTS.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS GUSTING UP 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON LOWER
AFTER SUNSET WITH SUSTAINED REMAIN BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS. GB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY ATMS IN PLACE
WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 0.31 INCHES. MODEL 1000-500 MB RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS. THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS FROM AROUND 16Z THROUGH
AROUND 01Z TODAY. THE PGF WILL DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING THE SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE CONDITIONS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE 1000-500 MB MEAN RH VALUES REMAIN PRETTY REDUCED THROUGH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. SO EXPECT SUNSHINE/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 3 PERIODS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS MORE
EASTWARD THE S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE RGV WHICH
IN COMBINATION WITH THE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL WARM UP THE TEMPS
PERETTY QUICKLY TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE NAM HAS MORE OF A COOLER
BIAS IN THE SHORT TERM MAXES VERSUS THE GFS MAV NUMBERS WHICH ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WARMING THINGS UP. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RETURNING WAA AM LEANING TOWARDS THE
WARMER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH TOMORROW.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE BAJA REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S... EXCEPT FOR THE 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE LATEST GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WEST TO EAST FLOW
OF THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE. CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE HELD
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES.

RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY IN THE 80S
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PGF ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTLINE WILL START TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ALTHOUGH THE PGF
INCREASES THE BAY AND GULF WATERS TEMPS IN THE BAY AND GULF REMAIN
FAIRLY COOL IN THE 66-68 DEGREE RANGE. THE COOLER WATER TEMPS NEAR
PADRE ISLAND WILL TEND TO HOLD DOWN HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRENGTHENING PGF. SO WILL NOT POST ANY SCAS AT THIS
TIME AND WILL MENTION ONLY SCEC CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND THE
GULF WATERS. THE PGF WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS BUT EXPECT THE COOLER BAY AND GULF WATER TEMPS TO TEND
TO HOLD BACK THE LOW LEVEL MIXING.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...AVIATION/SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KBRO 281732
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1232 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DRY ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR ALL THREE REGIONAL AIRPORTS.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS GUSTING UP 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON LOWER
AFTER SUNSET WITH SUSTAINED REMAIN BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS. GB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY ATMS IN PLACE
WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 0.31 INCHES. MODEL 1000-500 MB RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS. THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS FROM AROUND 16Z THROUGH
AROUND 01Z TODAY. THE PGF WILL DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING THE SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE CONDITIONS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE 1000-500 MB MEAN RH VALUES REMAIN PRETTY REDUCED THROUGH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. SO EXPECT SUNSHINE/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 3 PERIODS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS MORE
EASTWARD THE S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE RGV WHICH
IN COMBINATION WITH THE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL WARM UP THE TEMPS
PERETTY QUICKLY TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE NAM HAS MORE OF A COOLER
BIAS IN THE SHORT TERM MAXES VERSUS THE GFS MAV NUMBERS WHICH ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WARMING THINGS UP. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RETURNING WAA AM LEANING TOWARDS THE
WARMER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH TOMORROW.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE BAJA REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S... EXCEPT FOR THE 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE LATEST GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WEST TO EAST FLOW
OF THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE. CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE HELD
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES.

RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY IN THE 80S
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PGF ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTLINE WILL START TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ALTHOUGH THE PGF
INCREASES THE BAY AND GULF WATERS TEMPS IN THE BAY AND GULF REMAIN
FAIRLY COOL IN THE 66-68 DEGREE RANGE. THE COOLER WATER TEMPS NEAR
PADRE ISLAND WILL TEND TO HOLD DOWN HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRENGTHENING PGF. SO WILL NOT POST ANY SCAS AT THIS
TIME AND WILL MENTION ONLY SCEC CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND THE
GULF WATERS. THE PGF WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS BUT EXPECT THE COOLER BAY AND GULF WATER TEMPS TO TEND
TO HOLD BACK THE LOW LEVEL MIXING.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...AVIATION/SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KBRO 281145 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY ATMS IN PLACE
WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 0.31 INCHES. MODEL 1000-500 MB RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS. THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS FROM AROUND 16Z THROUGH
AROUND 01Z TODAY. THE PGF WILL DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING THE SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE CONDITIONS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE 1000-500 MB MEAN RH VALUES REMAIN PRETTY REDUCED THROUGH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. SO EXPECT SUNSHINE/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 3 PERIODS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS MORE
EASTWARD THE S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE RGV WHICH
IN COMBINATION WITH THE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL WARM UP THE TEMPS
PERETTY QUICKLY TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE NAM HAS MORE OF A COOLER
BIAS IN THE SHORT TERM MAXES VERSUS THE GFS MAV NUMBERS WHICH ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WARMING THINGS UP. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RETURNING WAA AM LEANING TOWARDS THE
WARMER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH TOMORROW.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE BAJA REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S... EXCEPT FOR THE 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE LATEST GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WEST TO EAST FLOW
OF THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE. CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE HELD
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES.

RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY IN THE 80S
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PGF ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTLINE WILL START TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ALTHOUGH THE PGF
INCREASES THE BAY AND GULF WATERS TEMPS IN THE BAY AND GULF REMAIN
FAIRLY COOL IN THE 66-68 DEGREE RANGE. THE COOLER WATER TEMPS NEAR
PADRE ISLAND WILL TEND TO HOLD DOWN HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRENGTHENING PGF. SO WILL NOT POST ANY SCAS AT THIS
TIME AND WILL MENTION ONLY SCEC CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND THE
GULF WATERS. THE PGF WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS BUT EXPECT THE COOLER BAY AND GULF WATER TEMPS TO TEND
TO HOLD BACK THE LOW LEVEL MIXING.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  63  79  68 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          81  63  84  67 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            82  62  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              84  61  86  67 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      85  60  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  68  77  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 281145 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY ATMS IN PLACE
WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 0.31 INCHES. MODEL 1000-500 MB RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS. THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS FROM AROUND 16Z THROUGH
AROUND 01Z TODAY. THE PGF WILL DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING THE SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE CONDITIONS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE 1000-500 MB MEAN RH VALUES REMAIN PRETTY REDUCED THROUGH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. SO EXPECT SUNSHINE/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 3 PERIODS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS MORE
EASTWARD THE S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE RGV WHICH
IN COMBINATION WITH THE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL WARM UP THE TEMPS
PERETTY QUICKLY TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE NAM HAS MORE OF A COOLER
BIAS IN THE SHORT TERM MAXES VERSUS THE GFS MAV NUMBERS WHICH ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WARMING THINGS UP. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RETURNING WAA AM LEANING TOWARDS THE
WARMER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH TOMORROW.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE BAJA REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S... EXCEPT FOR THE 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE LATEST GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WEST TO EAST FLOW
OF THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE. CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE HELD
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES.

RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY IN THE 80S
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PGF ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTLINE WILL START TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ALTHOUGH THE PGF
INCREASES THE BAY AND GULF WATERS TEMPS IN THE BAY AND GULF REMAIN
FAIRLY COOL IN THE 66-68 DEGREE RANGE. THE COOLER WATER TEMPS NEAR
PADRE ISLAND WILL TEND TO HOLD DOWN HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRENGTHENING PGF. SO WILL NOT POST ANY SCAS AT THIS
TIME AND WILL MENTION ONLY SCEC CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND THE
GULF WATERS. THE PGF WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS BUT EXPECT THE COOLER BAY AND GULF WATER TEMPS TO TEND
TO HOLD BACK THE LOW LEVEL MIXING.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  63  79  68 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          81  63  84  67 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            82  62  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              84  61  86  67 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      85  60  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  68  77  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...58





000
FXUS64 KBRO 281145 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY ATMS IN PLACE
WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 0.31 INCHES. MODEL 1000-500 MB RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS. THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS FROM AROUND 16Z THROUGH
AROUND 01Z TODAY. THE PGF WILL DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING THE SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE CONDITIONS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE 1000-500 MB MEAN RH VALUES REMAIN PRETTY REDUCED THROUGH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. SO EXPECT SUNSHINE/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 3 PERIODS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS MORE
EASTWARD THE S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE RGV WHICH
IN COMBINATION WITH THE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL WARM UP THE TEMPS
PERETTY QUICKLY TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE NAM HAS MORE OF A COOLER
BIAS IN THE SHORT TERM MAXES VERSUS THE GFS MAV NUMBERS WHICH ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WARMING THINGS UP. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RETURNING WAA AM LEANING TOWARDS THE
WARMER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH TOMORROW.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE BAJA REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S... EXCEPT FOR THE 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE LATEST GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WEST TO EAST FLOW
OF THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE. CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE HELD
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES.

RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY IN THE 80S
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PGF ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTLINE WILL START TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ALTHOUGH THE PGF
INCREASES THE BAY AND GULF WATERS TEMPS IN THE BAY AND GULF REMAIN
FAIRLY COOL IN THE 66-68 DEGREE RANGE. THE COOLER WATER TEMPS NEAR
PADRE ISLAND WILL TEND TO HOLD DOWN HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRENGTHENING PGF. SO WILL NOT POST ANY SCAS AT THIS
TIME AND WILL MENTION ONLY SCEC CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND THE
GULF WATERS. THE PGF WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS BUT EXPECT THE COOLER BAY AND GULF WATER TEMPS TO TEND
TO HOLD BACK THE LOW LEVEL MIXING.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  63  79  68 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          81  63  84  67 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            82  62  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              84  61  86  67 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      85  60  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  68  77  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 281145 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY ATMS IN PLACE
WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 0.31 INCHES. MODEL 1000-500 MB RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS. THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS FROM AROUND 16Z THROUGH
AROUND 01Z TODAY. THE PGF WILL DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING THE SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE CONDITIONS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE 1000-500 MB MEAN RH VALUES REMAIN PRETTY REDUCED THROUGH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. SO EXPECT SUNSHINE/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 3 PERIODS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS MORE
EASTWARD THE S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE RGV WHICH
IN COMBINATION WITH THE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL WARM UP THE TEMPS
PERETTY QUICKLY TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE NAM HAS MORE OF A COOLER
BIAS IN THE SHORT TERM MAXES VERSUS THE GFS MAV NUMBERS WHICH ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WARMING THINGS UP. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RETURNING WAA AM LEANING TOWARDS THE
WARMER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH TOMORROW.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE BAJA REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S... EXCEPT FOR THE 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE LATEST GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WEST TO EAST FLOW
OF THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE. CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE HELD
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES.

RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY IN THE 80S
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PGF ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTLINE WILL START TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ALTHOUGH THE PGF
INCREASES THE BAY AND GULF WATERS TEMPS IN THE BAY AND GULF REMAIN
FAIRLY COOL IN THE 66-68 DEGREE RANGE. THE COOLER WATER TEMPS NEAR
PADRE ISLAND WILL TEND TO HOLD DOWN HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRENGTHENING PGF. SO WILL NOT POST ANY SCAS AT THIS
TIME AND WILL MENTION ONLY SCEC CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND THE
GULF WATERS. THE PGF WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS BUT EXPECT THE COOLER BAY AND GULF WATER TEMPS TO TEND
TO HOLD BACK THE LOW LEVEL MIXING.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  63  79  68 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          81  63  84  67 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            82  62  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              84  61  86  67 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      85  60  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  68  77  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...58





000
FXUS64 KBRO 280930 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
429 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE CONDITIONS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE 1000-500 MB MEAN RH VALUES REMAIN PRETTY REDUCED THROUGH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. SO EXPECT SUNSHINE/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 3 PERIODS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS MORE
EASTWARD THE S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE RGV WHICH
IN COMBINATION WITH THE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL WARM UP THE TEMPS
PERETTY QUICKLY TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE NAM HAS MORE OF A COOLER
BIAS IN THE SHORT TERM MAXES VERSUS THE GFS MAV NUMBERS WHICH ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WARMING THINGS UP. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RETURNING WAA AM LEANING TOWARDS THE
WARMER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE BAJA REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S... EXCEPT FOR THE 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE LATEST GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WEST TO EAST FLOW
OF THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE. CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE HELD
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES.

RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY IN THE 80S
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PGF ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTLINE WILL START TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ALTHOUGH THE PGF
INCREASES THE BAY AND GULF WATERS TEMPS IN THE BAY AND GULF REMAIN
FAIRLY COOL IN THE 66-68 DEGREE RANGE. THE COOLER WATER TEMPS NEAR
PADRE ISLAND WILL TEND TO HOLD DOWN HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRENGTHENING PGF. SO WILL NOT POST ANY SCAS AT THIS
TIME AND WILL MENTION ONLY SCEC CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND THE
GULF WATERS. THE PGF WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS BUT EXPECT THE COOLER BAY AND GULF WATER TEMPS TO TEND
TO HOLD BACK THE LOW LEVEL MIXING.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  63  79  68 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          81  63  84  67 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            82  62  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              84  61  86  67 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      85  60  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  68  77  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58





000
FXUS64 KBRO 280929
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
429 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE CONDITIONS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE 1000-500 MB MEAN RH VALUES REMAIN PRETTY REDUCED THROUGH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. SO EXPECT SUNSHINE/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 3 PERIODS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS MORE
EASTWARD THE S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE RGV WHICH
IN COMBINATION WITH THE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL WARM UP THE TEMPS
PERETTY QUICKLY TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE NAM HAS MORE OF A COOLER
BIAS IN THE SHORT TERM MAXES VERSUS THE GFS MAV NUMBERS WHICH ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WARMING THINGS UP. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RETURNING WAA AM LEANING TOWARDS THE
WARMER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WEAK RIDGING
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE BAJA REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S... EXCEPT
FOR THE 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF SLIGHT
POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

THE LATEST GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WEST TO EAST FLOW
OF THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE. CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE HELD
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES.

RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY IN THE 80S
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PGF ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTLINE WILL START TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ALTHOUGH THE PGF
INCREASES THE BAY AND GULF WATERS TEMPS IN THE BAY AND GULF REMAIN
FAIRLY COOL IN THE 66-68 DEGREE RANGE. THE COOLER WATER TEMPS NEAR
PADRE ISLAND WILL TEND TO HOLD DOWN HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRENGTHENING PGF. SO WILL NOT POST ANY SCAS AT THIS
TIME AND WILL MENTION ONLY SCEC CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND THE
GULF WATERS. THE PGF WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS BUT EXPECT THE COOLER BAY AND GULF WATER TEMPS TO TEND
TO HOLD BACK THE LOW LEVEL MIXING.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  63  79  68 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          81  63  84  67 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            82  62  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              84  61  86  67 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      85  60  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  68  77  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58





000
FXUS64 KBRO 280929
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
429 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE CONDITIONS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE 1000-500 MB MEAN RH VALUES REMAIN PRETTY REDUCED THROUGH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. SO EXPECT SUNSHINE/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 3 PERIODS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS MORE
EASTWARD THE S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE RGV WHICH
IN COMBINATION WITH THE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL WARM UP THE TEMPS
PERETTY QUICKLY TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE NAM HAS MORE OF A COOLER
BIAS IN THE SHORT TERM MAXES VERSUS THE GFS MAV NUMBERS WHICH ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WARMING THINGS UP. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RETURNING WAA AM LEANING TOWARDS THE
WARMER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WEAK RIDGING
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE BAJA REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S... EXCEPT
FOR THE 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF SLIGHT
POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

THE LATEST GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WEST TO EAST FLOW
OF THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE. CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE HELD
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES.

RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY IN THE 80S
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PGF ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTLINE WILL START TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ALTHOUGH THE PGF
INCREASES THE BAY AND GULF WATERS TEMPS IN THE BAY AND GULF REMAIN
FAIRLY COOL IN THE 66-68 DEGREE RANGE. THE COOLER WATER TEMPS NEAR
PADRE ISLAND WILL TEND TO HOLD DOWN HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRENGTHENING PGF. SO WILL NOT POST ANY SCAS AT THIS
TIME AND WILL MENTION ONLY SCEC CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND THE
GULF WATERS. THE PGF WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS BUT EXPECT THE COOLER BAY AND GULF WATER TEMPS TO TEND
TO HOLD BACK THE LOW LEVEL MIXING.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  63  79  68 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          81  63  84  67 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            82  62  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              84  61  86  67 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      85  60  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  68  77  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 280929
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
429 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE CONDITIONS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE 1000-500 MB MEAN RH VALUES REMAIN PRETTY REDUCED THROUGH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. SO EXPECT SUNSHINE/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 3 PERIODS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS MORE
EASTWARD THE S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE RGV WHICH
IN COMBINATION WITH THE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL WARM UP THE TEMPS
PERETTY QUICKLY TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE NAM HAS MORE OF A COOLER
BIAS IN THE SHORT TERM MAXES VERSUS THE GFS MAV NUMBERS WHICH ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WARMING THINGS UP. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RETURNING WAA AM LEANING TOWARDS THE
WARMER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WEAK RIDGING
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE BAJA REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S... EXCEPT
FOR THE 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF SLIGHT
POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

THE LATEST GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WEST TO EAST FLOW
OF THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE. CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE HELD
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES.

RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY IN THE 80S
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PGF ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTLINE WILL START TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ALTHOUGH THE PGF
INCREASES THE BAY AND GULF WATERS TEMPS IN THE BAY AND GULF REMAIN
FAIRLY COOL IN THE 66-68 DEGREE RANGE. THE COOLER WATER TEMPS NEAR
PADRE ISLAND WILL TEND TO HOLD DOWN HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRENGTHENING PGF. SO WILL NOT POST ANY SCAS AT THIS
TIME AND WILL MENTION ONLY SCEC CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND THE
GULF WATERS. THE PGF WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS BUT EXPECT THE COOLER BAY AND GULF WATER TEMPS TO TEND
TO HOLD BACK THE LOW LEVEL MIXING.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  63  79  68 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          81  63  84  67 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            82  62  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              84  61  86  67 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      85  60  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  68  77  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 280657 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
157 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY ATMS IN PLACE
WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 0.31 INCHES. MODEL 1000-500 MB RH VALUES
REMAIN PRETTY LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS. THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS FROM AROUND 16Z THROUGH
AROUND 00Z TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CLR THRU THE DAY. WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 5KT FROM THE EAST
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZES RETURN TOMORROW
MORNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15G25KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHILE TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST CENTERED OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. THIS ALLOWS
THE WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO LOW TO MID 40S OVER
THE RANCHLANDS.

SATURDAY...RIDGE CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD DAYTIME HEATING AS THE DRY AIR REMAINS IN OVER THE
AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
TOWARDS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WITH GREATER DEWPOINTS FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF...THE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB UP INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST AND 50S
IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE LONG RANGE PATTERN
GENERALLY CONSIST OF A WEAK ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
GIVING THE CWA THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

RIDGING SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHIFTS EAST WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS WELL UNDERWAY. OUTRIGHT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND MAY BE MAINTAINED MONDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES WEST TEXAS. GFS IS SHOWING A FASTER WEST TO EAST FLOW
WITH THE DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND REMAINS THE MOST
CONSISTENT OF THE TWO DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE
ENSEMBLE MODELS. AS FOR CONVECTION CHANCES TUESDAY HAVE KEPT THE
CURRENT TIME OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF KEEP HIGHER CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ITS
SLOWER HANDLING OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. PARAMETERS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DECENT FOR GARDEN VARIETY TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
AND NOTHING LIKE THE ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THAT HAMMERED MISSION
AND MCALLEN THURSDAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 7.5C/KG CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG AND DECENT DIFFLUENCE PRODUCING
MODERATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS.

ZONAL FLOW RESUMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND NUDGES INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE THE SPRING TIME WARM SOUTHERLY IS
MAINTAINED WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND A GENERAL
BLEND WITH SLIGHTLY NUDGE WITH THE GFS LOOKS ON TRACK.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE GULF VEERING WINDS SOUTHEAST. THE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCEC AND MARGINAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER
TROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER THE LAGUNA ARE LOOKING
REASONABLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH EXERCISE CAUTION VALUES OFFSHORE.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NO
CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION AS THE INTO MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE
WITH BEST CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  63  82  68 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          82  63  82  67 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            83  60  85  66 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              85  61  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  59  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  66  75  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 280657 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
157 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY ATMS IN PLACE
WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 0.31 INCHES. MODEL 1000-500 MB RH VALUES
REMAIN PRETTY LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS. THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS FROM AROUND 16Z THROUGH
AROUND 00Z TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CLR THRU THE DAY. WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 5KT FROM THE EAST
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZES RETURN TOMORROW
MORNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15G25KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHILE TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST CENTERED OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. THIS ALLOWS
THE WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO LOW TO MID 40S OVER
THE RANCHLANDS.

SATURDAY...RIDGE CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD DAYTIME HEATING AS THE DRY AIR REMAINS IN OVER THE
AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
TOWARDS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WITH GREATER DEWPOINTS FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF...THE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB UP INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST AND 50S
IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE LONG RANGE PATTERN
GENERALLY CONSIST OF A WEAK ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
GIVING THE CWA THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

RIDGING SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHIFTS EAST WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS WELL UNDERWAY. OUTRIGHT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND MAY BE MAINTAINED MONDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES WEST TEXAS. GFS IS SHOWING A FASTER WEST TO EAST FLOW
WITH THE DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND REMAINS THE MOST
CONSISTENT OF THE TWO DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE
ENSEMBLE MODELS. AS FOR CONVECTION CHANCES TUESDAY HAVE KEPT THE
CURRENT TIME OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF KEEP HIGHER CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ITS
SLOWER HANDLING OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. PARAMETERS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DECENT FOR GARDEN VARIETY TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
AND NOTHING LIKE THE ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THAT HAMMERED MISSION
AND MCALLEN THURSDAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 7.5C/KG CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG AND DECENT DIFFLUENCE PRODUCING
MODERATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS.

ZONAL FLOW RESUMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND NUDGES INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE THE SPRING TIME WARM SOUTHERLY IS
MAINTAINED WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND A GENERAL
BLEND WITH SLIGHTLY NUDGE WITH THE GFS LOOKS ON TRACK.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE GULF VEERING WINDS SOUTHEAST. THE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCEC AND MARGINAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER
TROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER THE LAGUNA ARE LOOKING
REASONABLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH EXERCISE CAUTION VALUES OFFSHORE.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NO
CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION AS THE INTO MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE
WITH BEST CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  63  82  68 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          82  63  82  67 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            83  60  85  66 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              85  61  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  59  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  66  75  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 272355 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
655 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CLR THRU THE DAY. WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 5KT FROM THE EAST
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZES RETURN TOMORROW
MORNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15G25KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHILE TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST CENTERED OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. THIS ALLOWS
THE WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO LOW TO MID 40S OVER
THE RANCHLANDS.

SATURDAY...RIDGE CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD DAYTIME HEATING AS THE DRY AIR REMAINS IN OVER THE
AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
TOWARDS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WITH GREATER DEWPOINTS FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF...THE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB UP INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST AND 50S
IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE LONG RANGE PATTERN
GENERALLY CONSIST OF A WEAK ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
GIVING THE CWA THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

RIDGING SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHIFTS EAST WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS WELL UNDERWAY. OUTRIGHT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND MAY BE MAINTAINED MONDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES WEST TEXAS. GFS IS SHOWING A FASTER WEST TO EAST FLOW
WITH THE DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND REMAINS THE MOST
CONSISTENT OF THE TWO DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE
ENSEMBLE MODELS. AS FOR CONVECTION CHANCES TUESDAY HAVE KEPT THE
CURRENT TIME OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF KEEP HIGHER CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ITS
SLOWER HANDLING OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. PARAMETERS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DECENT FOR GARDEN VARIETY TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
AND NOTHING LIKE THE ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THAT HAMMERED MISSION
AND MCALLEN THURSDAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 7.5C/KG CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG AND DECENT DIFFLUENCE PRODUCING
MODERATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS.

ZONAL FLOW RESUMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND NUDGES INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE THE SPRING TIME WARM SOUTHERLY IS
MAINTAINED WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND A GENERAL
BLEND WITH SLIGHTLY NUDGE WITH THE GFS LOOKS ON TRACK.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE GULF VEERING WINDS SOUTHEAST. THE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCEC AND MARGINAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER
TROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER THE LAGUNA ARE LOOKING
REASONABLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH EXERCISE CAUTION VALUES OFFSHORE.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NO
CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION AS THE INTO MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE
WITH BEST CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64





000
FXUS64 KBRO 272355 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
655 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CLR THRU THE DAY. WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 5KT FROM THE EAST
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZES RETURN TOMORROW
MORNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15G25KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHILE TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST CENTERED OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. THIS ALLOWS
THE WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO LOW TO MID 40S OVER
THE RANCHLANDS.

SATURDAY...RIDGE CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD DAYTIME HEATING AS THE DRY AIR REMAINS IN OVER THE
AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
TOWARDS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WITH GREATER DEWPOINTS FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF...THE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB UP INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST AND 50S
IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE LONG RANGE PATTERN
GENERALLY CONSIST OF A WEAK ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
GIVING THE CWA THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

RIDGING SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHIFTS EAST WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS WELL UNDERWAY. OUTRIGHT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND MAY BE MAINTAINED MONDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES WEST TEXAS. GFS IS SHOWING A FASTER WEST TO EAST FLOW
WITH THE DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND REMAINS THE MOST
CONSISTENT OF THE TWO DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE
ENSEMBLE MODELS. AS FOR CONVECTION CHANCES TUESDAY HAVE KEPT THE
CURRENT TIME OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF KEEP HIGHER CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ITS
SLOWER HANDLING OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. PARAMETERS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DECENT FOR GARDEN VARIETY TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
AND NOTHING LIKE THE ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THAT HAMMERED MISSION
AND MCALLEN THURSDAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 7.5C/KG CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG AND DECENT DIFFLUENCE PRODUCING
MODERATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS.

ZONAL FLOW RESUMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND NUDGES INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE THE SPRING TIME WARM SOUTHERLY IS
MAINTAINED WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND A GENERAL
BLEND WITH SLIGHTLY NUDGE WITH THE GFS LOOKS ON TRACK.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE GULF VEERING WINDS SOUTHEAST. THE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCEC AND MARGINAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER
TROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER THE LAGUNA ARE LOOKING
REASONABLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH EXERCISE CAUTION VALUES OFFSHORE.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NO
CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION AS THE INTO MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE
WITH BEST CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64




000
FXUS64 KBRO 272002
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
302 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHILE TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST CENTERED OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. THIS ALLOWS
THE WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO LOW TO MID 40S OVER
THE RANCHLANDS.

SATURDAY...RIDGE CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD DAYTIME HEATING AS THE DRY AIR REMAINS IN OVER THE
AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
TOWARDS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WITH GREATER DEWPOINTS FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF...THE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB UP INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST AND 50S
IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE LONG RANGE PATTERN
GENERALLY CONSIST OF A WEAK ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
GIVING THE CWA THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

RIDGING SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHIFTS EAST WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS WELL UNDERWAY. OUTRIGHT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND MAY BE MAINTAINED MONDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES WEST TEXAS. GFS IS SHOWING A FASTER WEST TO EAST FLOW
WITH THE DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND REMAINS THE MOST
CONSISTENT OF THE TWO DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE
ENSEMBLE MODELS. AS FOR CONVECTION CHANCES TUESDAY HAVE KEPT THE
CURRENT TIME OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF KEEP HIGHER CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ITS
SLOWER HANDLING OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. PARAMETERS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DECENT FOR GARDEN VARIETY TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
AND NOTHING LIKE THE ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THAT HAMMERED MISSION
AND MCALLEN THURSDAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 7.5C/KG CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG AND DECENT DIFFLUENCE PRODUCING
MODERATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS.

ZONAL FLOW RESUMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND NUDGES INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE THE SPRING TIME WARM SOUTHERLY IS
MAINTAINED WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND A GENERAL
BLEND WITH SLIGHTLY NUDGE WITH THE GFS LOOKS ON TRACK.



&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE GULF VEERING WINDS SOUTHEAST. THE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCEC AND MARGINAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER
TROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER THE LAGUNA ARE LOOKING
REASONABLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH EXERCISE CAUTION VALUES OFFSHORE.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NO
CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION AS THE INTO MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE
WITH BEST CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  54  80  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          55  82  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            52  83  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              55  85  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      52  88  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   61  76  66  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67...SHORTTERM
59...LONG TERM
65...GRAPHICS




000
FXUS64 KBRO 272002
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
302 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHILE TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST CENTERED OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. THIS ALLOWS
THE WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO LOW TO MID 40S OVER
THE RANCHLANDS.

SATURDAY...RIDGE CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD DAYTIME HEATING AS THE DRY AIR REMAINS IN OVER THE
AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
TOWARDS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WITH GREATER DEWPOINTS FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF...THE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB UP INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST AND 50S
IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE LONG RANGE PATTERN
GENERALLY CONSIST OF A WEAK ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
GIVING THE CWA THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

RIDGING SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHIFTS EAST WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS WELL UNDERWAY. OUTRIGHT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND MAY BE MAINTAINED MONDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES WEST TEXAS. GFS IS SHOWING A FASTER WEST TO EAST FLOW
WITH THE DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND REMAINS THE MOST
CONSISTENT OF THE TWO DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE
ENSEMBLE MODELS. AS FOR CONVECTION CHANCES TUESDAY HAVE KEPT THE
CURRENT TIME OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF KEEP HIGHER CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ITS
SLOWER HANDLING OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. PARAMETERS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DECENT FOR GARDEN VARIETY TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
AND NOTHING LIKE THE ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THAT HAMMERED MISSION
AND MCALLEN THURSDAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 7.5C/KG CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG AND DECENT DIFFLUENCE PRODUCING
MODERATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS.

ZONAL FLOW RESUMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND NUDGES INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE THE SPRING TIME WARM SOUTHERLY IS
MAINTAINED WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND A GENERAL
BLEND WITH SLIGHTLY NUDGE WITH THE GFS LOOKS ON TRACK.



&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE GULF VEERING WINDS SOUTHEAST. THE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCEC AND MARGINAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER
TROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER THE LAGUNA ARE LOOKING
REASONABLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH EXERCISE CAUTION VALUES OFFSHORE.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NO
CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION AS THE INTO MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE
WITH BEST CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  54  80  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          55  82  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            52  83  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              55  85  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      52  88  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   61  76  66  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67...SHORTTERM
59...LONG TERM
65...GRAPHICS





000
FXUS64 KBRO 271743
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1243 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY AIR IN THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT A NORTH WIND TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST VEERING WINDS TO
THE SOUTHEAST INTO TOMORROW. THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN
INCREASING WINDS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SOME GUSTS COULD BE
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...DRY SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING OVER DEEP SOUTH TX IN
THE WAKE OF THE FROPA YESTERDAY WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL OF THE RGV AIRPORTS. IR SATL
SHOWS SOME PATCHY CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTH. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
BE BUILDING BACK IN OVER DEEP SOUTH TX IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA
YESTERDAY. A FAIRLY DRY REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE RGV
THROUGH SAT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN ZERO POPS AND LIMITED CLD COVERAGE.
A FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY BUT THIS
FLOW WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE S-SE TONIGHT INTO SAT WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE WAA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO RETURN TOMORROW.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE TEMPS TO WARM UP PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE SHORT TERM TEMP GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH SAT. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF THE SHORT
TERM TEMP GUIDANCE LEANING TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BE CLEARING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY INCREASING CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO RIDGING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR WARM AND PLEASANT/DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF THIS WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY A RIPPLE IN LARGELY ZONAL EAST TO WEST FLOW SLIDES ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. THE TROUGH GIVES US GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND I
SUSPECT 500MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN GFS/ECMWF
GUIDANCE. SURFACE MOISTURE IS A BIT LACKING WHEN THE SYSTEM ARRIVES
WITH SOME RESIDUAL TERRAIN INDUCED DRY/WARM AIR IN THE 700MB LAYER
BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF
THE VALLEY. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH ROUGHLY 40 PCT POPS IN THE RGV
METRO AND ALONG THE RIVER AND 50S IN THE HBV/BKS AREA. 00Z GFS
APPEARS TO SUFFER FROM GRID SCALE FEEDBACK WITH VORT BOMBS
GENERATING SPURIOUS UPPER AIR ACTIVITY SO QPF WAS LARGELY
DISCOUNTED. ECMWF QPF SEEMS REASONABLE ENOUGH WITH SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT PRECIP OVERALL IS
DEFINITELY NOT A LOCK. WILL BE WORTH CONTINUING TO MONITOR AS THIS
ZONAL SHORT WAVELENGTH/PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IS A KNOWN SEVERE WEATHER
ANALOG FOR THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
NOT ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY DUE
TO A LACK OF NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S.

ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH GENERAL RIDGINESS
OVER FLORIDA AND WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS THAT KEEPS A
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARM UP ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY
WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES A RELATIVE MINIMUM. BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST AF FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT IS INDICATED IN
GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE...SO WILL BE WORTH WATCHING THAT GOING FORWARD.
/68-JGG/

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...CURRENTLY BUOY020 REPORTS A NORTH
WIND AT 23G27KT WITH SEAS AT 7 FEET. THE STRONG NORTHERLY POST
FRONTAL SURFACE FLOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
WILL ACCORDINGLY MAINTAIN THE SCA THROUGH 7 AM. THE PGF WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING THE WINDS AND SEAS
TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS. AFTER THE ROUGHER GULF CONDITIONS WEAKEN
THIS MORNING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW STARTING TO INCREASE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... STEADY MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH MODERATE SEAS. WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON ON THE LAGUNA MADRE EACH DAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59





000
FXUS64 KBRO 271743
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1243 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY AIR IN THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT A NORTH WIND TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST VEERING WINDS TO
THE SOUTHEAST INTO TOMORROW. THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN
INCREASING WINDS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SOME GUSTS COULD BE
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...DRY SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING OVER DEEP SOUTH TX IN
THE WAKE OF THE FROPA YESTERDAY WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL OF THE RGV AIRPORTS. IR SATL
SHOWS SOME PATCHY CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTH. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
BE BUILDING BACK IN OVER DEEP SOUTH TX IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA
YESTERDAY. A FAIRLY DRY REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE RGV
THROUGH SAT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN ZERO POPS AND LIMITED CLD COVERAGE.
A FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY BUT THIS
FLOW WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE S-SE TONIGHT INTO SAT WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE WAA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO RETURN TOMORROW.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE TEMPS TO WARM UP PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE SHORT TERM TEMP GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH SAT. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF THE SHORT
TERM TEMP GUIDANCE LEANING TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BE CLEARING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY INCREASING CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO RIDGING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR WARM AND PLEASANT/DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF THIS WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY A RIPPLE IN LARGELY ZONAL EAST TO WEST FLOW SLIDES ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. THE TROUGH GIVES US GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND I
SUSPECT 500MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN GFS/ECMWF
GUIDANCE. SURFACE MOISTURE IS A BIT LACKING WHEN THE SYSTEM ARRIVES
WITH SOME RESIDUAL TERRAIN INDUCED DRY/WARM AIR IN THE 700MB LAYER
BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF
THE VALLEY. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH ROUGHLY 40 PCT POPS IN THE RGV
METRO AND ALONG THE RIVER AND 50S IN THE HBV/BKS AREA. 00Z GFS
APPEARS TO SUFFER FROM GRID SCALE FEEDBACK WITH VORT BOMBS
GENERATING SPURIOUS UPPER AIR ACTIVITY SO QPF WAS LARGELY
DISCOUNTED. ECMWF QPF SEEMS REASONABLE ENOUGH WITH SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT PRECIP OVERALL IS
DEFINITELY NOT A LOCK. WILL BE WORTH CONTINUING TO MONITOR AS THIS
ZONAL SHORT WAVELENGTH/PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IS A KNOWN SEVERE WEATHER
ANALOG FOR THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
NOT ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY DUE
TO A LACK OF NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S.

ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH GENERAL RIDGINESS
OVER FLORIDA AND WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS THAT KEEPS A
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARM UP ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY
WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES A RELATIVE MINIMUM. BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST AF FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT IS INDICATED IN
GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE...SO WILL BE WORTH WATCHING THAT GOING FORWARD.
/68-JGG/

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...CURRENTLY BUOY020 REPORTS A NORTH
WIND AT 23G27KT WITH SEAS AT 7 FEET. THE STRONG NORTHERLY POST
FRONTAL SURFACE FLOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
WILL ACCORDINGLY MAINTAIN THE SCA THROUGH 7 AM. THE PGF WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING THE WINDS AND SEAS
TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS. AFTER THE ROUGHER GULF CONDITIONS WEAKEN
THIS MORNING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW STARTING TO INCREASE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... STEADY MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH MODERATE SEAS. WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON ON THE LAGUNA MADRE EACH DAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59





000
FXUS64 KBRO 271743
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1243 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY AIR IN THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT A NORTH WIND TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST VEERING WINDS TO
THE SOUTHEAST INTO TOMORROW. THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN
INCREASING WINDS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SOME GUSTS COULD BE
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...DRY SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING OVER DEEP SOUTH TX IN
THE WAKE OF THE FROPA YESTERDAY WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL OF THE RGV AIRPORTS. IR SATL
SHOWS SOME PATCHY CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTH. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
BE BUILDING BACK IN OVER DEEP SOUTH TX IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA
YESTERDAY. A FAIRLY DRY REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE RGV
THROUGH SAT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN ZERO POPS AND LIMITED CLD COVERAGE.
A FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY BUT THIS
FLOW WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE S-SE TONIGHT INTO SAT WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE WAA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO RETURN TOMORROW.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE TEMPS TO WARM UP PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE SHORT TERM TEMP GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH SAT. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF THE SHORT
TERM TEMP GUIDANCE LEANING TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BE CLEARING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY INCREASING CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO RIDGING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR WARM AND PLEASANT/DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF THIS WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY A RIPPLE IN LARGELY ZONAL EAST TO WEST FLOW SLIDES ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. THE TROUGH GIVES US GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND I
SUSPECT 500MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN GFS/ECMWF
GUIDANCE. SURFACE MOISTURE IS A BIT LACKING WHEN THE SYSTEM ARRIVES
WITH SOME RESIDUAL TERRAIN INDUCED DRY/WARM AIR IN THE 700MB LAYER
BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF
THE VALLEY. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH ROUGHLY 40 PCT POPS IN THE RGV
METRO AND ALONG THE RIVER AND 50S IN THE HBV/BKS AREA. 00Z GFS
APPEARS TO SUFFER FROM GRID SCALE FEEDBACK WITH VORT BOMBS
GENERATING SPURIOUS UPPER AIR ACTIVITY SO QPF WAS LARGELY
DISCOUNTED. ECMWF QPF SEEMS REASONABLE ENOUGH WITH SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT PRECIP OVERALL IS
DEFINITELY NOT A LOCK. WILL BE WORTH CONTINUING TO MONITOR AS THIS
ZONAL SHORT WAVELENGTH/PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IS A KNOWN SEVERE WEATHER
ANALOG FOR THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
NOT ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY DUE
TO A LACK OF NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S.

ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH GENERAL RIDGINESS
OVER FLORIDA AND WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS THAT KEEPS A
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARM UP ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY
WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES A RELATIVE MINIMUM. BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST AF FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT IS INDICATED IN
GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE...SO WILL BE WORTH WATCHING THAT GOING FORWARD.
/68-JGG/

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...CURRENTLY BUOY020 REPORTS A NORTH
WIND AT 23G27KT WITH SEAS AT 7 FEET. THE STRONG NORTHERLY POST
FRONTAL SURFACE FLOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
WILL ACCORDINGLY MAINTAIN THE SCA THROUGH 7 AM. THE PGF WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING THE WINDS AND SEAS
TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS. AFTER THE ROUGHER GULF CONDITIONS WEAKEN
THIS MORNING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW STARTING TO INCREASE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... STEADY MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH MODERATE SEAS. WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON ON THE LAGUNA MADRE EACH DAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59




000
FXUS64 KBRO 271743
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1243 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY AIR IN THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT A NORTH WIND TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST VEERING WINDS TO
THE SOUTHEAST INTO TOMORROW. THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN
INCREASING WINDS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SOME GUSTS COULD BE
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...DRY SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING OVER DEEP SOUTH TX IN
THE WAKE OF THE FROPA YESTERDAY WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL OF THE RGV AIRPORTS. IR SATL
SHOWS SOME PATCHY CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTH. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
BE BUILDING BACK IN OVER DEEP SOUTH TX IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA
YESTERDAY. A FAIRLY DRY REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE RGV
THROUGH SAT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN ZERO POPS AND LIMITED CLD COVERAGE.
A FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY BUT THIS
FLOW WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE S-SE TONIGHT INTO SAT WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE WAA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO RETURN TOMORROW.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE TEMPS TO WARM UP PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE SHORT TERM TEMP GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH SAT. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF THE SHORT
TERM TEMP GUIDANCE LEANING TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BE CLEARING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY INCREASING CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO RIDGING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR WARM AND PLEASANT/DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF THIS WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY A RIPPLE IN LARGELY ZONAL EAST TO WEST FLOW SLIDES ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. THE TROUGH GIVES US GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND I
SUSPECT 500MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN GFS/ECMWF
GUIDANCE. SURFACE MOISTURE IS A BIT LACKING WHEN THE SYSTEM ARRIVES
WITH SOME RESIDUAL TERRAIN INDUCED DRY/WARM AIR IN THE 700MB LAYER
BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF
THE VALLEY. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH ROUGHLY 40 PCT POPS IN THE RGV
METRO AND ALONG THE RIVER AND 50S IN THE HBV/BKS AREA. 00Z GFS
APPEARS TO SUFFER FROM GRID SCALE FEEDBACK WITH VORT BOMBS
GENERATING SPURIOUS UPPER AIR ACTIVITY SO QPF WAS LARGELY
DISCOUNTED. ECMWF QPF SEEMS REASONABLE ENOUGH WITH SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT PRECIP OVERALL IS
DEFINITELY NOT A LOCK. WILL BE WORTH CONTINUING TO MONITOR AS THIS
ZONAL SHORT WAVELENGTH/PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IS A KNOWN SEVERE WEATHER
ANALOG FOR THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
NOT ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY DUE
TO A LACK OF NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S.

ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH GENERAL RIDGINESS
OVER FLORIDA AND WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS THAT KEEPS A
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARM UP ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY
WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES A RELATIVE MINIMUM. BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST AF FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT IS INDICATED IN
GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE...SO WILL BE WORTH WATCHING THAT GOING FORWARD.
/68-JGG/

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...CURRENTLY BUOY020 REPORTS A NORTH
WIND AT 23G27KT WITH SEAS AT 7 FEET. THE STRONG NORTHERLY POST
FRONTAL SURFACE FLOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
WILL ACCORDINGLY MAINTAIN THE SCA THROUGH 7 AM. THE PGF WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING THE WINDS AND SEAS
TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS. AFTER THE ROUGHER GULF CONDITIONS WEAKEN
THIS MORNING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW STARTING TO INCREASE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... STEADY MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH MODERATE SEAS. WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON ON THE LAGUNA MADRE EACH DAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59




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