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000
FXUS64 KBRO 242009
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
309 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL MOVE FROM WEST TEXAS TONIGHT INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A S/W TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. THE END WILL
RESULT WILL BE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. PATCHY FOG APPEARS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE ABUNDANCE OF
DRY AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENCE BETWEEN THE
MET AND MAV AND JUST BLENDED THESE TWO INTO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...STRONG 500 MB RIDGING WILL
PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX ON SUNDAY BUT WILL START TO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS TROUGH WILL DIG
SLOWLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
BY MIDWEEK WHICH WILL DROP A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO CENTRAL TX BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL TO OUR NORTH AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON THURS.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL MIDWEST LATE
THURS INTO FRIDAY WHICH MAY PUSH A FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS MODELS KEEP
PRETTY LIMITED MOISTURE VALUES IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT
NEXT WEEK. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ONLY SLGT CHC POPS DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND MID
LEVEL TROUGHS GET CLOSER TO THE REGION.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PLACEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH DAY 7 AND ALSO AGREE IN
THE LIMITED MOISTURE VALUES NEXT WEEK. WILL GO NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE MEX TEMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK AS WAA WILL BE PRETTY
STRONG OVER THE REGION AND SUNSHINE WILL BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD.
WILL GO CLOSE TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR LOWS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST TREND IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3.3 FEET WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND NO
SCEC OR SCA EXPECTED AS WELL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT SURFACE TROFFING IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG PGF OVER THE
LOWER TX COASTLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE A STRONG
S-SE SURFACE FLOW WHICH COULD PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS UP CLOSE
TO SCA LEVELS LATE IN THE CWF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  65  85  66  85 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          64  87  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            62  89  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              65  90  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      64  90  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   70  84  71  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65







000
FXUS64 KBRO 241637
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1137 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BUFKIT POINT SOUNDINGS AND NAM MOS INDICATES SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE TAF SITES AND NORTHWARD INTO
THE RANCHLANDS OVERNIGHT. MODIFIED RICHARDSON NUMBERS ARE HIGH ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTION OF BR AROUND DAWN AND WINDS ARE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS UP TO 5K FEET. THIS MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOWED WIDESPREAD
5-6SM IN BR. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE BY AND RECENT RAINS ACROSS
THE AREA WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THE TEMPO FOR BR FROM 10-14Z ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 3SM WITH FOG AT KT65 TO NEAR 6SM
WITH FOG AT KMFE. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY
FOG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AS THE 500MB
RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BLEND OF MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS
TOO COOL FOR TEMPS TODAY AND SATURDAY AND TOO WARM FOR TEMPS
TONIGHT SO WILL ADJUST HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THIS AFTERNOON AND
SAT AFTERNOON AND ADJUST LOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT.

LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THEN...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NW AND THIS
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST VEERING WINDS TO THE SE BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND AS A RESULT INCREASING THE MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG THE COAST AND
THE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH RH VALUES OF LESS
THAN 60 PERCENT WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING INTO THE 90S ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 281
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID 60S BUT BY MONDAY MORNING THE SE FLOW ADVECTING WARMER AIR WILL
BRING LOWS BACK TO THE 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS TO INCREASE
AND FOR DEEPER LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
CWA. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ON
WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH GETS INTO THE TEXAS
REGION. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS SE FLOW BACKS WINDS
MORE EASTERLY ALLOWING FOR DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO SURGE INTO
THE CWA AND KEEP THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THIS SE TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WARM UP INTO THE 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE
CONVECTION EXPECTED IS GOING TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE CWA. THERE AREA SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF 00Z
MODEL RUNS SHOWING STILL DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS NOT AS PRONOUNCE WITH THE TROUGH THURSDAY AND THEREFORE
KEEPING THE SE FLOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE FRONT MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS MORE DIFFERENCES AS IT SHOWS
A STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST WHILE BROAD HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE DESERT SW. THIS PATTERN COULD BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
AND LOWER TEMPS AND RH VALUES ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT AN
EASTERLY FLOW WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN THE MODELS.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 5 FEET WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 6 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
OF THE GULF WATERS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH LIGHT SE WINDS
RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND SURGES DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND ALLOWING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AS WELL AS WINDS AND SEAS.
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN SCEC LEVEL BUT SCA CRITERIA COULD BE REACH
IF THE TREND CONTINUOUS TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS. CONVECTION
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BUT SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE
AFTER TUESDAY. THE WINDS BECOME EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER... MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFERENCES AS TO
WHEN WOULD IT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. KEPT EASTERLY FLOW WITH
CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55







000
FXUS64 KBRO 241134 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
634 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 3SM WITH FOG AT KT65 TO NEAR 6SM
WITH FOG AT KMFE. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY
FOG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AS THE 500MB
RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BLEND OF MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS
TOO COOL FOR TEMPS TODAY AND SATURDAY AND TOO WARM FOR TEMPS
TONIGHT SO WILL ADJUST HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THIS AFTERNOON AND
SAT AFTERNOON AND ADJUST LOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT.

LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THEN...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NW AND THIS
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST VEERING WINDS TO THE SE BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND AS A RESULT INCREASING THE MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG THE COAST AND
THE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH RH VALUES OF LESS
THAN 60 PERCENT WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING INTO THE 90S ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 281
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID 60S BUT BY MONDAY MORNING THE SE FLOW ADVECTING WARMER AIR WILL
BRING LOWS BACK TO THE 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS TO INCREASE
AND FOR DEEPER LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
CWA. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ON
WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH GETS INTO THE TEXAS
REGION. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS SE FLOW BACKS WINDS
MORE EASTERLY ALLOWING FOR DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO SURGE INTO
THE CWA AND KEEP THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THIS SE TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WARM UP INTO THE 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE
CONVECTION EXPECTED IS GOING TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE CWA. THERE AREA SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF 00Z
MODEL RUNS SHOWING STILL DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS NOT AS PRONOUNCE WITH THE TROUGH THURSDAY AND THEREFORE
KEEPING THE SE FLOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE FRONT MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS MORE DIFFERENCES AS IT SHOWS
A STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST WHILE BROAD HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE DESERT SW. THIS PATTERN COULD BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
AND LOWER TEMPS AND RH VALUES ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT AN
EASTERLY FLOW WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN THE MODELS.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 5 FEET WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 6 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
OF THE GULF WATERS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH LIGHT SE WINDS
RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND SURGES DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND ALLOWING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AS WELL AS WINDS AND SEAS.
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN SCEC LEVEL BUT SCA CRITERIA COULD BE REACH
IF THE TREND CONTINUOUS TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS. CONVECTION
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BUT SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE
AFTER TUESDAY. THE WINDS BECOME EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER... MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFERENCES AS TO
WHEN WOULD IT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. KEPT EASTERLY FLOW WITH
CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/67/BILLINGS







000
FXUS64 KBRO 240818
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. BLEND OF MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL FOR
TEMPS TODAY AND SATURDAY AND TOO WARM FOR TEMPS TONIGHT SO WILL
ADJUST HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AND
ADJUST LOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THEN...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NW AND THIS
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST VEERING WINDS TO THE SE BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND AS A RESULT INCREASING THE MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG THE COAST AND
THE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH RH VALUES OF LESS
THAN 60 PERCENT WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING INTO THE 90S ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 281
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID 60S BUT BY MONDAY MORNING THE SE FLOW ADVECTING WARMER AIR WILL
BRING LOWS BACK TO THE 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS TO INCREASE
AND FOR DEEPER LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
CWA. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ON
WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH GETS INTO THE TEXAS
REGION. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS SE FLOW BACKS WINDS
MORE EASTERLY ALLOWING FOR DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO SURGE INTO
THE CWA AND KEEP THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THIS SE TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WARM UP INTO THE 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE
CONVECTION EXPECTED IS GOING TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE CWA. THERE AREA SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF 00Z
MODEL RUNS SHOWING STILL DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS NOT AS PRONOUNCE WITH THE TROUGH THURSDAY AND THEREFORE
KEEPING THE SE FLOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE FRONT MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS MORE DIFFERENCES AS IT SHOWS
A STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST WHILE BROAD HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE DESERT SW. THIS PATTERN COULD BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
AND LOWER TEMPS AND RH VALUES ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT AN
EASTERLY FLOW WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN THE MODELS.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 5 FEET WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 6 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
OF THE GULF WATERS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH LIGHT SE WINDS
RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND SURGES DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND ALLOWING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AS WELL AS WINDS AND SEAS.
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN SCEC LEVEL BUT SCA CRITERIA COULD BE REACH
IF THE TREND CONTINUOUS TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS. CONVECTION
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BUT SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE
AFTER TUESDAY. THE WINDS BECOME EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER... MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFERENCES AS TO
WHEN WOULD IT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. KEPT EASTERLY FLOW WITH
CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  84  67  85  67 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          86  64  87  64 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            86  64  87  63 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN              89  65  90  63 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      91  65  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  71  83  72 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/67








000
FXUS64 KBRO 240534 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP FRI MORNING AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY FRI MORNING THROUGH
FRI AFTERNOON AS 500MB RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND
NORTHERN MEXICO PROVIDES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...FAVORABLE FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AMID
MODEST NORTHEAST WINDS. PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH ENOUGH SYNOPTIC LIFT
TO SPARK A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WHICH ARE
MOVING SOUTHEAST. NOT THINKING THESE ARE GOING TO AMOUNT TO MUCH SO
WILL LEAVE SILENT 10S IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THE
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

DRY AIR IS ON THE WAY WITH BRO PWAT OF 1.57 INCHES AND CRP PWAT OF
1.3 INCHES. FURTHER NORTH LIX PWAT WAS 0.36 THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE
TROUGH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
AND DRY AIR FILTERING IN ON NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW. 700-300MB RH FALLS
BELOW 10 PERCENT AND THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS WELL. PWATS
WILL FALL BELOW AN INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS EVENING...POPS WILL BE VIRTUALLY NIL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA
AND INTO UPPER TEXAS COAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS SOME SHALLOW PATCHY
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO WENT WITH CONSENSUS BETWEEN MET AND MAV
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WORKING IN. THIS HAD LITTLE EFFECT ON
THE GOING FORECAST...PERHAPS WARMING THE VALLEY UP A DEGREE OR SO.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND LOW WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND NORTHERN
MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO DEGRADE NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE TROUGH
AXIS DIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TX WED AND THURS. SOME DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEX.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE
ON THE PROGRESS OF THE 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE A LITTLE QUICKER MOVEMENT
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH VERSUS THE GFS. ACCORDINGLY THE ECMWF
SHOWS A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER DEEP SOUTH TX
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEITHER MODEL SHOWS MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG FROPA ACROSS THE LOWER RGV WITH THIS TROUGH
AXIS WITH BOTH MODELS STALLING THE FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE AGREEMENT INDICATED BY
BOTH LONGER RANGE MODELS.

EXPECT OVERALL TEMPS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH DAY 7 DUE
TO THE IMPACT OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LIMITED MOISTURE
VALUES. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS TEMPS
FOR BOTH TEMPS AND POPS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL RECEIVING ELEVATED SEAS
FROM WHATS LEFT OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE BUT AN
OVERALL DECREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST SFC FLOW
CONTINUING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL FROM 4.5 FEET CURRENTLY AT BUOY
42020 TO CLOSER TO 3 FEET BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BUILD THE
WINDS AND SEAS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE A WEAK PGF WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LOW WINDS AND SEAS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/67







000
FXUS64 KBRO 232313
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
613 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FAVORABLE FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AMID
MODEST NORTHEAST WINDS. PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH ENOUGH SYNOPTIC LIFT
TO SPARK A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WHICH ARE
MOVING SOUTHEAST. NOT THINKING THESE ARE GOING TO AMOUNT TO MUCH SO
WILL LEAVE SILENT 10S IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THE
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

DRY AIR IS ON THE WAY WITH BRO PWAT OF 1.57 INCHES AND CRP PWAT OF
1.3 INCHES. FURTHER NORTH LIX PWAT WAS 0.36 THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE
TROUGH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
AND DRY AIR FILTERING IN ON NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW. 700-300MB RH FALLS
BELOW 10 PERCENT AND THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS WELL. PWATS
WILL FALL BELOW AN INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS EVENING...POPS WILL BE VIRTUALLY NIL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA
AND INTO UPPER TEXAS COAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS SOME SHALLOW PATCHY
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO WENT WITH CONSENSUS BETWEEN MET AND MAV
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WORKING IN. THIS HAD LITTLE EFFECT ON
THE GOING FORECAST...PERHAPS WARMING THE VALLEY UP A DEGREE OR SO.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND LOW WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND NORTHERN
MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO DEGRADE NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE TROUGH
AXIS DIGS ACROS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TX WED AND THURS. SOME DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEX.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE
ON THE PROGRESS OF THE 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE A LITTLE QUICKER MOVEMENT
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH VERSUS THE GFS. ACCORDINGLY THE ECMWF
SHOWS A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER DEEP SOUTH TX
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEITHER MODEL SHOWS MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG FROPA ACROSS THE LOWER RGV WITH THIS TROUGH
AXIS WITH BOTH MODELS STALLING THE FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE AGREEMENT INDICATED BY
BOTH LONGER RANGE MODELS.

EXPECT OVERALL TEMPS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH DAY 7 DUE
TO THE IMPACT OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LIMITED MOISTURE
VALUES. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS TEMPS
FOR BOTH TEMPS AND POPS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL RECEIVING ELEVATED SEAS
FROM WHATS LEFT OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE BUT AN
OVERALL DECREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST SFC FLOW
CONTINUING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL FROM 4.5 FEET CURRENTLY AT BUOY
42020 TO CLOSER TO 3 FEET BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BUILD THE
WINDS AND SEAS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE A WEAK PGF WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LOW WINDS AND SEAS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  83  68  85 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          66  86  65  86 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            64  86  64  87 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN              65  88  65  89 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      64  88  64  90 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  83  73  83 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/59







000
FXUS64 KBRO 232018
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
318 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH ENOUGH SYNOPTIC LIFT
TO SPARK A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WHICH ARE
MOVING SOUTHEAST. NOT THINKING THESE ARE GOING TO AMOUNT TO MUCH SO
WILL LEAVE SILENT 10S IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THE
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

DRY AIR IS ON THE WAY WITH BRO PWAT OF 1.57 INCHES AND CRP PWAT OF
1.3 INCHES. FURTHER NORTH LIX PWAT WAS 0.36 THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE
TROUGH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
AND DRY AIR FILTERING IN ON NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW. 700-300MB RH FALLS
BELOW 10 PERCENT AND THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS WELL. PWATS
WILL FALL BELOW AN INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS EVENING...POPS WILL BE VIRTUALLY NIL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA
AND INTO UPPER TEXAS COAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS SOME SHALLOW PATCHY
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO WENT WITH CONSENSUS BETWEEN MET AND MAV
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WORKING IN. THIS HAD LITTLE EFFECT ON
THE GOING FORECAST...PERHAPS WARMING THE VALLEY UP A DEGREE OR SO.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND LOW WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND NORTHERN
MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO DEGRADE NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE TROUGH
AXIS DIGS ACROS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TX WED AND THURS. SOME DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEX.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE
ON THE PROGRESS OF THE 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE A LITTLE QUICKER MOVEMENT
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH VERSUS THE GFS. ACCORDINGLY THE ECMWF
SHOWS A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER DEEP SOUTH TX
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEITHER MODEL SHOWS MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG FROPA ACROSS THE LOWER RGV WITH THIS TROUGH
AXIS WITH BOTH MODELS STALLING THE FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE AGREEMENT INDICATED BY
BOTH LONGER RANGE MODELS.

EXPECT OVERALL TEMPS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH DAY 7 DUE
TO THE IMPACT OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LIMITED MOISTURE
VALUES. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS TEMPS
FOR BOTH TEMPS AND POPS.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL RECEIVING ELEVATED SEAS
FROM WHATS LEFT OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE BUT AN
OVERALL DECREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST SFC FLOW
CONTINUING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL FROM 4.5 FEET CURRENTLY AT BUOY
42020 TO CLOSER TO 3 FEET BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BUILD THE
WINDS AND SEAS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE A WEAK PGF WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LOW WINDS AND SEAS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  83  68  85 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          66  86  65  86 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            64  86  64  87 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN              65  88  65  89 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      64  88  64  90 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  83  73  83 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65







000
FXUS64 KBRO 231730
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL HANG IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT
AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AT HRL AND MFE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND EXCLUDED FROM THIS TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVER DEEP S
TX. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN THROUGH THE DAY BUT SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS COULD HELP PRODUCE A FEW TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS BUT EVERYTHING WILL REMAIN VFR LEVEL WITH
WINDS NO MORE THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA LIMITING ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN
DRIER AIR WITH A NE FLOW. THIS WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT THE MID LEVELS WILL
KEEP CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SUNSHINE WILL
REACH THE GROUND ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

TONIGHT...THE LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL
PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER RANCHLAND ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 281. AS
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID LOW
60S ACROSS THE CWA.

FRIDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA BUT SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN THE MID LEVELS AND COULD
DEVELOP FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...THE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SE BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD SATURDAY ACROSS TEXAS. A 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST TX TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. MOVES EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST TX WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TX. WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...REMNANT LOW FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SHEAR
OUT INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST FRIDAY. ITS INFLUENCE ON WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AND TOMORROW RESULTING IN THE
REDUCTION OF WINDS AND SEAS. THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH NO SCA OR SCEC EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM WITH SE FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55







000
FXUS64 KBRO 231130
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
630 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVER DEEP S
TX. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN THROUGH THE DAY BUT SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS COULD HELP PRODUCE A FEW TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS BUT EVERYTHING WILL REMAIN VFR LEVEL WITH
WINDS NO MORE THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA LIMITING ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN
DRIER AIR WITH A NE FLOW. THIS WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT THE MID LEVELS WILL
KEEP CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SUNSHINE WILL
REACH THE GROUND ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

TONIGHT...THE LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL
PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER RANCHLAND ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 281. AS
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID LOW
60S ACROSS THE CWA.

FRIDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA BUT SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN THE MID LEVELS AND COULD
DEVELOP FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...THE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SE BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD SATURDAY ACROSS TEXAS. A 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST TX TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. MOVES EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST TX WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TX. WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...REMNANT LOW FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SHEAR
OUT INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST FRIDAY. ITS INFLUENCE ON WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AND TOMORROW RESULTING IN THE
REDUCTION OF WINDS AND SEAS. THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH NO SCA OR SCEC EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM WITH SE FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/60








000
FXUS64 KBRO 230905
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
405 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA LIMITING ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN
DRIER AIR WITH A NE FLOW. THIS WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT THE MID LEVELS WILL
KEEP CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SUNSHINE WILL
REACH THE GROUND ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

TONIGHT...THE LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL
PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER RANCHLAND ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 281. AS
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID LOW
60S ACROSS THE CWA.

FRIDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA BUT SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN THE MID LEVELS AND COULD
DEVELOP FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...THE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SE BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD SATURDAY ACROSS TEXAS. A 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST TX TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. MOVES EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST TX WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TX. WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...REMNANT LOW FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SHEAR
OUT INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST FRIDAY. ITS INFLUENCE ON WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AND TOMORROW RESULTING IN THE
REDUCTION OF WINDS AND SEAS. THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH NO SCA OR SCEC EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM WITH SE FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  82  69  83  68 /  10  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          84  67  84  66 /  10  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            84  64  84  65 /  10  10  10   0
MCALLEN              86  65  85  65 /  10  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      87  64  87  66 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  73  83  72 /  10  10  10   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61







000
FXUS64 KBRO 230544
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1244 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVER DEEP S
TX. DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS...PATCHY GROUND FOG IS
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE MAINLY OVER KMFE AND LOCATIONS WESTWARD
WHERE WINDS COULD BECOME COMPLETELY CALM. AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...LESS CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED BUT STILL SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP
SOME SCT CUMULUS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE LACKING
FOR FOG BUT WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT DID
ADD A MENTION OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT MFE...AND WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORING OVER SOUTHERN CAMERON COUNTY WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL FELL EARLIER TODAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE PREVAILING TOMORROW POSSIBLY MUDDIED
THROUGH 14/15Z IF FOG FORMATION IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN FORECAST.
/68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500 MB FIELDS SHOW AN
ELONGATED TROUGH DIGGING OVER WEST TX AND NORTHWEST MEXICO TODAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL TX LATER TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY
TOMORROW. THIS WOULD BE A CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL CONV IF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS WOULD HOLD IN PLACE. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM GUIDANCE SHOW DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE STRONG
ISOLD CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DIED OUT OVER
SOUTHERN CAMERON COUNTY. KBRO RADAR SHOWS SCT CONV FIRING SOUTH OF
THE RIVER MOVING WEST OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. LAPS CAPE DATA SHOWS
SOME DECENT INSTABILITY REMAINING POOLED JUST OVER THE RGV AND
EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF COASTLINE OF MEXICO. SO
ISOLD CONV WILL STILL BE A THREAT FOR THE RGV THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO SOME LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTION. WILL THEN GO NEAR ZERO POPS FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
EVENING IN LINE WITH MAV AND MET NUMBERS.

THE WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
COOLER NIGHTTIME LOWS AS THE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS DROP OFF. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO AS DIURNAL HEATING WILL TEND TO WARM UP
TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON PRETTY NICELY.

WILL INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND
CLEARER SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL EFFECTS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WEST TEXAS FRIDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS
TEXAS SATURDAY THEN BE FLATTENED SOMEWHAT SUNDAY INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY AND EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AND LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND CAPPED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE CFW FOR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES REMAIN PRETTY HIGH FOR THE SPI JETTIES. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF TD NINE...THE OLD STATIONARY
FRONT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE STRONG PGF
WILL THEN START TO WEAKEN LATE TOMORROW WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW
THE ELEVATED GULF SWELLS TO DECREASE. REPORTS FROM BUOY020
CURRENTLY SHOW THE GULF CONDITIONS HOLDING IN SCEC CRITERIA. SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SCA CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. NO SCEC OR SCA NEEDED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61








000
FXUS64 KBRO 222325 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
625 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE LACKING
FOR FOG BUT WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT DID
ADD A MENTION OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT MFE...AND WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORING OVER SOUTHERN CAMERON COUNTY WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL FELL EARLIER TODAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE PREVAILING TOMORROW POSSIBLY MUDDIED
THROUGH 14/15Z IF FOG FORMATION IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN FORECAST.
/68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500 MB FIELDS SHOW AN
ELONGATED TROUGH DIGGING OVER WEST TX AND NORTHWEST MEXICO TODAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL TX LATER TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY
TOMORROW. THIS WOULD BE A CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL CONV IF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS WOULD HOLD IN PLACE. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM GUIDANCE SHOW DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE STRONG
ISOLD CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DIED OUT OVER
SOUTHERN CAMERON COUNTY. KBRO RADAR SHOWS SCT CONV FIRING SOUTH OF
THE RIVER MOVING WEST OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. LAPS CAPE DATA SHOWS
SOME DECENT INSTABILITY REMAINING POOLED JUST OVER THE RGV AND
EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF COASTLINE OF MEXICO. SO
ISOLD CONV WILL STILL BE A THREAT FOR THE RGV THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO SOME LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTION. WILL THEN GO NEAR ZERO POPS FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
EVENING IN LINE WITH MAV AND MET NUMBERS.

THE WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
COOLER NIGHTTIME LOWS AS THE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS DROP OFF. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO AS DIURNAL HEATING WILL TEND TO WARM UP
TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON PRETTY NICELY.

WILL INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND
CLEARER SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL EFFECTS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WEST TEXAS FRIDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS
TEXAS SATURDAY THEN BE FLATTENED SOMEWHAT SUNDAY INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY AND EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AND LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND CAPPED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE CFW FOR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES REMAIN PRETTY HIGH FOR THE SPI JETTIES. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF TD NINE...THE OLD STATIONARY
FRONT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE STRONG PGF
WILL THEN START TO WEAKEN LATE TOMORROW WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW
THE ELEVATED GULF SWELLS TO DECREASE. REPORTS FROM BUOY020
CURRENTLY SHOW THE GULF CONDITIONS HOLDING IN SCEC CRITERIA. SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SCA CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. NO SCEC OR SCA NEEDED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/59








000
FXUS64 KBRO 221958
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500 MB FIELDS SHOW AN
ELONGATED TROUGH DIGGING OVER WEST TX AND NORTHWEST MEXICO TODAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL TX LATER TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY
TOMORROW. THIS WOULD BE A CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL CONV IF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS WOULD HOLD IN PLACE. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM GUIDANCE SHOW DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE STRONG
ISOLD CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DIED OUT OVER
SOUTHERN CAMERON COUNTY. KBRO RADAR SHOWS SCT CONV FIRING SOUTH OF
THE RIVER MOVING WEST OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. LAPS CAPE DATA SHOWS
SOME DECENT INSTABILITY REMAINING POOLED JUST OVER THE RGV AND
EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF COASTLINE OF MEXICO. SO
ISOLD CONV WILL STILL BE A THREAT FOR THE RGV THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO SOME LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTION. WILL THEN GO NEAR ZERO POPS FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
EVENING IN LINE WITH MAV AND MET NUMBERS.

THE WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
COOLER NIGHTTIME LOWS AS THE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS DROP OFF. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO AS DIURNAL HEATING WILL TEND TO WARM UP
TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON PRETTY NICELY.

WILL INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND
CLEARER SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL EFFECTS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WEST TEXAS FRIDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS
TEXAS SATURDAY THEN BE FLATTENED SOMEWHAT SUNDAY INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY AND EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AND LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND CAPPED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE CFW FOR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES REMAIN PRETTY HIGH FOR THE SPI JETTIES. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF TD NINE...THE OLD STATIONARY
FRONT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE STRONG PGF
WILL THEN START TO WEAKEN LATE TOMORROW WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW
THE ELEVATED GULF SWELLS TO DECREASE. REPORTS FROM BUOY020
CURRENTLY SHOW THE GULF CONDITIONS HOLDING IN SCEC CRITERIA. SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SCA CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. NO SCEC OR SCA NEEDED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  72  83  69  83 /  20  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          69  84  68  84 /  20  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            68  84  65  84 /  20  10  10   0
MCALLEN              69  86  66  86 /  20  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      67  87  65  87 /  20  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  82  73  83 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 221846 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
146 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE STRONG CONVECTION FOR EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
DIED OUT OVER CAMERON COUNTY. KBRO RADAR SHOWS SCT CONV FIRING
SOUTH OF THE RIVER MOVING WEST OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. LAPS CAPE
DATA SHOWS SOME DECENT INSTABILITY REMAIN POOLED JUST OVER THE
RGV AND EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF COASTLINE OF MEXICO.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS GRADUALLY ERODE AWAY THE DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE VALUES OVER DEEP SOUTH TX FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A DRIER
LOW LEVEL FLOW BUILDS IN FROM NORTH. ISOLD CONV WILL STILL BE A
THREAT FOR THE LOWER RGV AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO MENTION
ANY TEMPO OR PROB30 GROUPS. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SOME VCSH
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIODS. VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME DECENT CU FIELDS LINGERING OVER THE AREA AS THE DAYTIME
HEATING INTERACTS WITH THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE VALUES OVER THE AREA.
THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS CLOSE TO KBRO WILL BE IMPACTING
THE TERMINAL WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS. MOST OF THE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED SOUTH OVER THE GULF WATERS. MENTIONED TEMPO
GROUP FOR THIS CONVECTION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY FROM THE EAST. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY
THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT NORTHEAST FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE CONCENTRATED SOUTHWARD AND A DRY AIRMASS TOWARDS N
TEXAS. MEANWHILE...IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMS A TROUGH ACROSS
THE DESERT SW LIFTS NE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9
OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NE OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL KEEP A WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK GRADIENT AT
THE SURFACE WHICH IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.
THE EASTERLY FLOW WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AS OF THE 00Z KBRO SOUNDING INDICATED 2.0 INCHES. GFS
STILL SHOWS IN THE MID LAYERS DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE OF AROUND 70
PERCENT AVAILABLE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
EXPECT 30 PERCENT CHANCE RIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE MID TO LOW
80S WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A GRADUAL NORTHEAST DRY AIR FILTERING
INTO THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL COUNTIES TONIGHT. STILL DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MIGRATE WEST
SO THERE STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
AND FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE VALLEY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY WITH MORE OF THE DRY AIR MASS ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE CWA. STILL SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL AID FOR MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW AREAS COULD
SEE PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY FROM BROOKS
COUNTY TO NORTHERN HIDALGO. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE
MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE CWA AND LOW 70S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DRIER AIR IS NOTED ALOFT IN THE BUFF SOUNDING AND
CROSS SECTIONS WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LINGERING ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS BUT NO
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE MID
80S ACROSS THE CWA WITH A MORE NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH OUT THE DAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THURS NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD FRIDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EVEN AS A LONGWAVE 500MB TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PROVIDE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A CAP ON
ANY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TX TUESDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...BUOY020 HOLDS STEADY SCEC CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS GUSTING
CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS. EXPECT THIS SAME PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS WE KEEP
AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TODAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 OVER NORTHEAST
BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH REALLY VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS KEEPING
AN EASTERLY FETCH AND MODERATE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. DO NOT
EXPECT SCA AT THIS TIME...AS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL SOON MOVE
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
TROPICAL STORM KEPT WINDS AND SEAS MODERATE FOR TODAY. ON THURSDAY...
WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NE AND
FILTERING DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. THERE IS A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT AS THE SWELLS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY COMBINED WITH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. THIS COULD PRODUCE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. BY THURSDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  72  85  71  83 /  20  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          70  86  69  83 /  20  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            67  86  68  84 /  20  10  10   0
MCALLEN              66  88  67  86 /  20  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      67  86  67  87 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  84  73  81 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 221159
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
659 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS CLOSE TO KBRO WILL BE IMPACTING
THE TERMINAL WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS. MOST OF THE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED SOUTH OVER THE GULF WATERS. MENTIONED TEMPO
GROUP FOR THIS CONVECTION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY FROM THE EAST. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY
THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT NORTHEAST FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE CONCENTRATED SOUTHWARD AND A DRY AIRMASS TOWARDS N
TEXAS. MEANWHILE...IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMS A TROUGH ACROSS
THE DESERT SW LIFTS NE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9
OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NE OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL KEEP A WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK GRADIENT AT
THE SURFACE WHICH IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.
THE EASTERLY FLOW WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AS OF THE 00Z KBRO SOUNDING INDICATED 2.0 INCHES. GFS
STILL SHOWS IN THE MID LAYERS DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE OF AROUND 70
PERCENT AVAILABLE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
EXPECT 30 PERCENT CHANCE RIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE MID TO LOW
80S WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A GRADUAL NORTHEAST DRY AIR FILTERING
INTO THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL COUNTIES TONIGHT. STILL DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MIGRATE WEST
SO THERE STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
AND FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE VALLEY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY WITH MORE OF THE DRY AIR MASS ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE CWA. STILL SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL AID FOR MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW AREAS COULD
SEE PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY FROM BROOKS
COUNTY TO NORTHERN HIDALGO. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE
MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE CWA AND LOW 70S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DRIER AIR IS NOTED ALOFT IN THE BUFF SOUNDING AND
CROSS SECTIONS WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LINGERING ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS BUT NO
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE MID
80S ACROSS THE CWA WITH A MORE NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH OUT THE DAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THURS NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD FRIDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EVEN AS A LONGWAVE 500MB TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PROVIDE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A CAP ON
ANY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TX TUESDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...BUOY020 HOLDS STEADY SCEC CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS GUSTING
CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS. EXPECT THIS SAME PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS WE KEEP
AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TODAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 OVER NORTHEAST
BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH REALLY VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS KEEPING
AN EASTERLY FETCH AND MODERATE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. DO NOT
EXPECT SCA AT THIS TIME...AS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL SOON MOVE
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
TROPICAL STORM KEPT WINDS AND SEAS MODERATE FOR TODAY. ON THURSDAY...
WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NE AND
FILTERING DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. THERE IS A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT AS THE SWELLS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY COMBINED WITH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. THIS COULD PRODUCE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. BY THURSDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/60








000
FXUS64 KBRO 220836
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
336 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE CONCENTRATED SOUTHWARD AND A DRY AIRMASS TOWARDS N
TEXAS. MEANWHILE...IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMS A TROUGH ACROSS
THE DESERT SW LIFTS NE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9
OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NE OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL KEEP A WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK GRADIENT AT
THE SURFACE WHICH IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.
THE EASTERLY FLOW WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AS OF THE 00Z KBRO SOUNDING INDICATED 2.0 INCHES. GFS
STILL SHOWS IN THE MID LAYERS DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE OF AROUND 70
PERCENT AVAILABLE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
EXPECT 30 PERCENT CHANCE RIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE MID TO LOW
80S WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A GRADUAL NORTHEAST DRY AIR FILTERING
INTO THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL COUNTIES TONIGHT. STILL DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MIGRATE WEST
SO THERE STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
AND FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE VALLEY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY WITH MORE OF THE DRY AIR MASS ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE CWA. STILL SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL AID FOR MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW AREAS COULD
SEE PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY FROM BROOKS
COUNTY TO NORTHERN HIDALGO. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE
MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE CWA AND LOW 70S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DRIER AIR IS NOTED ALOFT IN THE BUFF SOUNDING AND
CROSS SECTIONS WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LINGERING ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS BUT NO
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE MID
80S ACROSS THE CWA WITH A MORE NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH OUT THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THURS NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD FRIDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EVEN AS A LONGWAVE 500MB TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PROVIDE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A CAP ON
ANY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TX TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...BUOY020 HOLDS STEADY SCEC CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS GUSTING
CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS. EXPECT THIS SAME PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS WE KEEP
AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TODAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 OVER NORTHEAST
BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH REALLY VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS KEEPING
AN EASTERLY FETCH AND MODERATE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. DO NOT
EXPECT SCA AT THIS TIME...AS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL SOON MOVE
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
TROPICAL STORM KEPT WINDS AND SEAS MODERATE FOR TODAY. ON THURSDAY...
WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NE AND
FILTERING DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. THERE IS A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT AS THE SWELLS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY COMBINED WITH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. THIS COULD PRODUCE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. BY THURSDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  84  72  85  71 /  30  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          85  70  86  69 /  30  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  67  86  68 /  30  20  10  10
MCALLEN              84  66  88  67 /  30  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      86  67  86  67 /  30  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   84  75  84  73 /  30  20  10  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61








000
FXUS64 KBRO 220533
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1233 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE IN THE AREA COMBINED WITH
A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE
CLOUD LAYERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WEDNESDAY
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE WITH POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY IN KMFE AND KHRL. THE NORTHEAST WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. VCSH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THIS COULD
REDUCE VISIBILITIES WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND CEILINGS
LOWERING CLOSE TO MVFR LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...WEAK DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST TEXAS
MID LEVEL TROUGH ARE COMBINING WITH A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH SUBTLE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAINTAINING SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THE LAST FEW HOURS. SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM
THE GULF ARE LOW TOP AND ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY
FLOW UP TO 10K FEET. THE WESTERN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM MEXICO ARE
MOVING NORTHEAST DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME RECONFIGURING OF THE
POP PLACEMENT. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AS PWATS SURGED TO 2 INCHES THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WITH A CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW
TO MAINTAIN MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH
OCCASIONAL CIGS AND VSBY LOWERING TO MVFR WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
PROBABILITIES OF DOMINATE MVFR CIGS REMAIN LOW HOWEVER SOME CIGS
MAY APPROACH THE TOP END OF MVFR WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT
BETWEEN 2500-4000 FEET. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS PERSIST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...DEEP SOUTH TX
REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES TODAY. THE
FIRST BEING THE 500 MB SHORT WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE EL PASO AREA
AND THE BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
TX TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.

RELATIVELY HIGHER LAPS CAPE VALUES ARE INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO ALLOW FOR PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF MAINLY SHOWERS WITH FEW
ISOLD T-STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE BRO CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COVERAGE HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CONV
HAS ALSO BEEN HELPED ALONG BY SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ONGOING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN WEAKEN OUT
WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING AFTER SUNSET.

EXPECT ENOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED CAPE VALUES TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TOMORROW TO JUSTIFY SOME MENTION OF CONV THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN SLOWLY
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATER ON WED TO EVENTUALLY SHUT OFF THE
CONV POTENTIAL FOR THE RGV.

THE ECMWF IS THE WETTEST OF THE THREE MODEL SETS WITH THE MAV AND
MET COMING IN WITH LOWER POPS. WILL GO CLOSE TO THE ECMWF POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN LEAN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET BLEND LATER
TONIGHT INTO WED AND WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE MID SECTIONS OF THE CONUS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE FEATURE THIS FAR SOUTH
THAT WILL SPARK ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND DRY AIR IN THE
LOW AND MID LEVELS FURTHER LOWERS CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST FRIDAY
WHICH WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNDAY.
LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL TREK EASTWARD AS WELL WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING OUT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
KEEP A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS LOOK TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND MOIST SOILS...AM RELUCTANT TO GO ANY
HIGHER ON TEMPERATURES DESPITE A FEW MODELS WARMER THAN MY
FORECAST. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL OR A DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL.

MODELS DIVERGE BY SUNDAY REGARDING PROGRESSION OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. GFS IS WEAKER AND
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND
SLOWER. WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST AND NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
CONTINUING BUT ADD SILENT 10S TO THE AREA BASED ON THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 HAS BEEN HOLDING
CLOSE TO SCEC CRIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WINDS FROM 15G20KTS
WITH SWELLS FROM 5 TO 6 FEET. THE TIGHT PGF PERSISTING DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG AND
PERSISTENT FETCH OF ELEVATED GULF SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM. FOR NOW EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STAY CLOSE TO SCEC LEVELS
THROUGHOUT WED. SOME BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
GULF CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WILL POST A CFW TO CAUTION FOLKS OF THE
POTENTIAL OF BEACH RUNUP DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SETTLES
ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED AND NO SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61








000
FXUS64 KBRO 220533
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1233 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE IN THE AREA COMBINED WITH
A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE
CLOUD LAYERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WEDNESDAY
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE WITH POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY IN KMFE AND KHRL. THE NORTHEAST WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. VCSH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THIS COULD
REDUCE VISIBILITIES WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND CEILINGS
LOWERING CLOSE TO MVFR LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...WEAK DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST TEXAS
MID LEVEL TROUGH ARE COMBINING WITH A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH SUBTLE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAINTAINING SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THE LAST FEW HOURS. SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM
THE GULF ARE LOW TOP AND ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY
FLOW UP TO 10K FEET. THE WESTERN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM MEXICO ARE
MOVING NORTHEAST DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME RECONFIGURING OF THE
POP PLACEMENT. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AS PWATS SURGED TO 2 INCHES THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WITH A CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW
TO MAINTAIN MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH
OCCASIONAL CIGS AND VSBY LOWERING TO MVFR WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
PROBABILITIES OF DOMINATE MVFR CIGS REMAIN LOW HOWEVER SOME CIGS
MAY APPROACH THE TOP END OF MVFR WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT
BETWEEN 2500-4000 FEET. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS PERSIST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...DEEP SOUTH TX
REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES TODAY. THE
FIRST BEING THE 500 MB SHORT WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE EL PASO AREA
AND THE BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
TX TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.

RELATIVELY HIGHER LAPS CAPE VALUES ARE INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO ALLOW FOR PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF MAINLY SHOWERS WITH FEW
ISOLD T-STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE BRO CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COVERAGE HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CONV
HAS ALSO BEEN HELPED ALONG BY SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ONGOING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN WEAKEN OUT
WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING AFTER SUNSET.

EXPECT ENOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED CAPE VALUES TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TOMORROW TO JUSTIFY SOME MENTION OF CONV THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN SLOWLY
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATER ON WED TO EVENTUALLY SHUT OFF THE
CONV POTENTIAL FOR THE RGV.

THE ECMWF IS THE WETTEST OF THE THREE MODEL SETS WITH THE MAV AND
MET COMING IN WITH LOWER POPS. WILL GO CLOSE TO THE ECMWF POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN LEAN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET BLEND LATER
TONIGHT INTO WED AND WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE MID SECTIONS OF THE CONUS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE FEATURE THIS FAR SOUTH
THAT WILL SPARK ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND DRY AIR IN THE
LOW AND MID LEVELS FURTHER LOWERS CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST FRIDAY
WHICH WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNDAY.
LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL TREK EASTWARD AS WELL WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING OUT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
KEEP A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS LOOK TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND MOIST SOILS...AM RELUCTANT TO GO ANY
HIGHER ON TEMPERATURES DESPITE A FEW MODELS WARMER THAN MY
FORECAST. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL OR A DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL.

MODELS DIVERGE BY SUNDAY REGARDING PROGRESSION OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. GFS IS WEAKER AND
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND
SLOWER. WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST AND NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
CONTINUING BUT ADD SILENT 10S TO THE AREA BASED ON THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 HAS BEEN HOLDING
CLOSE TO SCEC CRIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WINDS FROM 15G20KTS
WITH SWELLS FROM 5 TO 6 FEET. THE TIGHT PGF PERSISTING DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG AND
PERSISTENT FETCH OF ELEVATED GULF SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM. FOR NOW EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STAY CLOSE TO SCEC LEVELS
THROUGHOUT WED. SOME BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
GULF CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WILL POST A CFW TO CAUTION FOLKS OF THE
POTENTIAL OF BEACH RUNUP DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SETTLES
ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED AND NO SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61








000
FXUS64 KBRO 220200
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
900 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...WEAK DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST TEXAS
MID LEVEL TROUGH ARE COMBINING WITH A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH SUBTLE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAINTAINING SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THE LAST FEW HOURS. SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM
THE GULF ARE LOW TOP AND ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY
FLOW UP TO 10K FEET. THE WESTERN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM MEXICO ARE
MOVING NORTHEAST DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME RECONFIGURING OF THE
POP PLACEMENT. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AS PWATS SURGED TO 2 INCHES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WITH A CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW
TO MAINTAIN MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH
OCCASIONAL CIGS AND VSBY LOWERING TO MVFR WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
PROBABILITIES OF DOMINATE MVFR CIGS REMAIN LOW HOWEVER SOME CIGS
MAY APPROACH THE TOP END OF MVFR WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT
BETWEEN 2500-4000 FEET. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS PERSIST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...DEEP SOUTH TX
REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES TODAY. THE
FIRST BEING THE 500 MB SHORT WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE EL PASO AREA
AND THE BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
TX TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.

RELATIVELY HIGHER LAPS CAPE VALUES ARE INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO ALLOW FOR PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF MAINLY SHOWERS WITH FEW
ISOLD T-STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE BRO CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COVERAGE HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CONV
HAS ALSO BEEN HELPED ALONG BY SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ONGOING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN WEAKEN OUT
WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING AFTER SUNSET.

EXPECT ENOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED CAPE VALUES TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TOMORROW TO JUSTIFY SOME MENTION OF CONV THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN SLOWLY
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATER ON WED TO EVENTUALLY SHUT OFF THE
CONV POTENTIAL FOR THE RGV.

THE ECMWF IS THE WETTEST OF THE THREE MODEL SETS WITH THE MAV AND
MET COMING IN WITH LOWER POPS. WILL GO CLOSE TO THE ECMWF POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN LEAN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET BLEND LATER
TONIGHT INTO WED AND WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE MID SECTIONS OF THE CONUS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE FEATURE THIS FAR SOUTH
THAT WILL SPARK ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND DRY AIR IN THE
LOW AND MID LEVELS FURTHER LOWERS CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST FRIDAY
WHICH WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNDAY.
LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL TREK EASTWARD AS WELL WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING OUT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
KEEP A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS LOOK TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND MOIST SOILS...AM RELUCTANT TO GO ANY
HIGHER ON TEMPERATURES DESPITE A FEW MODELS WARMER THAN MY
FORECAST. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL OR A DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL.

MODELS DIVERGE BY SUNDAY REGARDING PROGRESSION OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. GFS IS WEAKER AND
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND
SLOWER. WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST AND NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
CONTINUING BUT ADD SILENT 10S TO THE AREA BASED ON THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 HAS BEEN HOLDING
CLOSE TO SCEC CRIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WINDS FROM 15G20KTS
WITH SWELLS FROM 5 TO 6 FEET. THE TIGHT PGF PERSISTING DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG AND
PERSISTENT FETCH OF ELEVATED GULF SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM. FOR NOW EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STAY CLOSE TO SCEC LEVELS
THROUGHOUT WED. SOME BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
GULF CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WILL POST A CFW TO CAUTION FOLKS OF THE
POTENTIAL OF BEACH RUNUP DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SETTLES
ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED AND NO SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  84  73  86 /  30  30  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          72  85  71  86 /  40  30  20  10
HARLINGEN            71  86  70  87 /  30  30  20  10
MCALLEN              70  87  70  88 /  40  30  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  87  68  87 /  40  30  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  83  75  84 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/64







000
FXUS64 KBRO 220200
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
900 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...WEAK DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST TEXAS
MID LEVEL TROUGH ARE COMBINING WITH A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH SUBTLE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAINTAINING SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THE LAST FEW HOURS. SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM
THE GULF ARE LOW TOP AND ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY
FLOW UP TO 10K FEET. THE WESTERN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM MEXICO ARE
MOVING NORTHEAST DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME RECONFIGURING OF THE
POP PLACEMENT. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AS PWATS SURGED TO 2 INCHES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WITH A CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW
TO MAINTAIN MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH
OCCASIONAL CIGS AND VSBY LOWERING TO MVFR WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
PROBABILITIES OF DOMINATE MVFR CIGS REMAIN LOW HOWEVER SOME CIGS
MAY APPROACH THE TOP END OF MVFR WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT
BETWEEN 2500-4000 FEET. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS PERSIST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...DEEP SOUTH TX
REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES TODAY. THE
FIRST BEING THE 500 MB SHORT WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE EL PASO AREA
AND THE BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
TX TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.

RELATIVELY HIGHER LAPS CAPE VALUES ARE INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO ALLOW FOR PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF MAINLY SHOWERS WITH FEW
ISOLD T-STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE BRO CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COVERAGE HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CONV
HAS ALSO BEEN HELPED ALONG BY SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ONGOING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN WEAKEN OUT
WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING AFTER SUNSET.

EXPECT ENOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED CAPE VALUES TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TOMORROW TO JUSTIFY SOME MENTION OF CONV THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN SLOWLY
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATER ON WED TO EVENTUALLY SHUT OFF THE
CONV POTENTIAL FOR THE RGV.

THE ECMWF IS THE WETTEST OF THE THREE MODEL SETS WITH THE MAV AND
MET COMING IN WITH LOWER POPS. WILL GO CLOSE TO THE ECMWF POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN LEAN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET BLEND LATER
TONIGHT INTO WED AND WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE MID SECTIONS OF THE CONUS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE FEATURE THIS FAR SOUTH
THAT WILL SPARK ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND DRY AIR IN THE
LOW AND MID LEVELS FURTHER LOWERS CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST FRIDAY
WHICH WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNDAY.
LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL TREK EASTWARD AS WELL WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING OUT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
KEEP A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS LOOK TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND MOIST SOILS...AM RELUCTANT TO GO ANY
HIGHER ON TEMPERATURES DESPITE A FEW MODELS WARMER THAN MY
FORECAST. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL OR A DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL.

MODELS DIVERGE BY SUNDAY REGARDING PROGRESSION OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. GFS IS WEAKER AND
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND
SLOWER. WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST AND NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
CONTINUING BUT ADD SILENT 10S TO THE AREA BASED ON THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 HAS BEEN HOLDING
CLOSE TO SCEC CRIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WINDS FROM 15G20KTS
WITH SWELLS FROM 5 TO 6 FEET. THE TIGHT PGF PERSISTING DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG AND
PERSISTENT FETCH OF ELEVATED GULF SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM. FOR NOW EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STAY CLOSE TO SCEC LEVELS
THROUGHOUT WED. SOME BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
GULF CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WILL POST A CFW TO CAUTION FOLKS OF THE
POTENTIAL OF BEACH RUNUP DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SETTLES
ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED AND NO SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  84  73  86 /  30  30  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          72  85  71  86 /  40  30  20  10
HARLINGEN            71  86  70  87 /  30  30  20  10
MCALLEN              70  87  70  88 /  40  30  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  87  68  87 /  40  30  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  83  75  84 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/64







000
FXUS64 KBRO 212343
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
643 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WITH A CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW
TO MAINTAIN MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH
OCCASIONAL CIGS AND VSBY LOWERING TO MVFR WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
PROBABILITIES OF DOMINATE MVFR CIGS REMAIN LOW HOWEVER SOME CIGS
MAY APPROACH THE TOP END OF MVFR WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT
BETWEEN 2500-4000 FEET. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS PERSIST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...DEEP SOUTH TX
REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES TODAY. THE
FIRST BEING THE 500 MB SHORT WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE EL PASO AREA
AND THE BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
TX TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.

RELATIVELY HIGHER LAPS CAPE VALUES ARE INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO ALLOW FOR PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF MAINLY SHOWERS WITH FEW
ISOLD T-STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE BRO CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COVERAGE HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CONV
HAS ALSO BEEN HELPED ALONG BY SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ONGOING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN WEAKEN OUT
WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING AFTER SUNSET.

EXPECT ENOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED CAPE VALUES TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TOMORROW TO JUSTIFY SOME MENTION OF CONV THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN SLOWLY
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATER ON WED TO EVENTUALLY SHUT OFF THE
CONV POTENTIAL FOR THE RGV.

THE ECMWF IS THE WETTEST OF THE THREE MODEL SETS WITH THE MAV AND
MET COMING IN WITH LOWER POPS. WILL GO CLOSE TO THE ECMWF POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN LEAN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET BLEND LATER
TONIGHT INTO WED AND WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE MID SECTIONS OF THE CONUS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE FEATURE THIS FAR SOUTH
THAT WILL SPARK ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND DRY AIR IN THE
LOW AND MID LEVELS FURTHER LOWERS CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST FRIDAY
WHICH WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNDAY.
LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL TREK EASTWARD AS WELL WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING OUT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
KEEP A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS LOOK TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND MOIST SOILS...AM RELUCTANT TO GO ANY
HIGHER ON TEMPERATURES DESPITE A FEW MODELS WARMER THAN MY
FORECAST. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL OR A DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL.

MODELS DIVERGE BY SUNDAY REGARDING PROGRESSION OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. GFS IS WEAKER AND
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND
SLOWER. WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST AND NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
CONTINUING BUT ADD SILENT 10S TO THE AREA BASED ON THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 HAS BEEN HOLDING
CLOSE TO SCEC CRIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WINDS FROM 15G20KTS
WITH SWELLS FROM 5 TO 6 FEET. THE TIGHT PGF PERSISTING DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG AND
PERSISTENT FETCH OF ELEVATED GULF SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM. FOR NOW EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STAY CLOSE TO SCEC LEVELS
THROUGHOUT WED. SOME BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
GULF CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WILL POST A CFW TO CAUTION FOLKS OF THE
POTENTIAL OF BEACH RUNUP DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SETTLES
ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED AND NO SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  84  73  86 /  30  30  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          72  85  71  86 /  40  30  20  10
HARLINGEN            71  86  70  87 /  30  30  20  10
MCALLEN              70  87  70  88 /  40  30  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  87  68  87 /  40  30  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  83  75  84 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...AVIATION








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