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000
FXUS64 KBRO 181107 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
607 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THIN CIRRUS CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE CWA
THIS MORNING...WHILE LOW CU HAS RESULTED IN TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AT
BRO ON LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. MAY SEE MORE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE LOWER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP
THROUGH THE DAY AND THE WEAK ELEVATED INVERSION SHOULD LIFT...
ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WILL STILL SEE SCT TO BKN
CLOUD STREETS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER. NO OTHER AVIATION ISSUES
SEEN FOR THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
ON LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WEST WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS AS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S....DECAY AND BECOME ABSORBED.
THE INCREASING STABILITY PROVIDED BY THE RIDGE...PLUS THE CURRENT
ABSENCE OF EXTRA MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF...WILL PROVIDE
MORE SETTLED CONDITIONS LOCALLY IN THE SHORT TERM. NONETHELESS...
SURFACE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AN OLD BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST TX...
COUPLED WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THAT AREA TODAY...WILL KEEP
THINGS MORE ACTIVE TO THE NORTH. SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION COULD MAKE
IT TO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES TONIGHT...AND THUS KEPT POPS A
SKOCHE HIGHER THERE AS A RESULT. OVERALL...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED LOCALLY...WITH PWAT REMAINING AROUND TWO INCHES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM.

TODAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP...
WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE...FAVORING A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER
KENEDY AND MAYBE BROOKS COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CHECK IN
CLOSE TO NORMAL...OR JUST A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. A FEW EXTRA MORNING
LOW CLDS WILL YIELD TO A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN LATER THIS MORNING.
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THOUGH...WITH PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES...SO ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN
MAKERS AND COULD PRODUCE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF PRECIP IN A SHORT
AMOUNT OF TIME.

TONIGHT...IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY STRATUS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST...AND EVEN PATCHY LIGHT FOG INLAND...WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS. LOW TEMPS WILL CHECK IN FROM 75 TO 80...A FEW
DEGREES ABV NRML DUE TO THE ELEVATED DEW POINTS. ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MAY FIND ITS WAY DOWN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING WEST OVER TEXAS WILL FOCUS A BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE AREA...AND CONVECTION MOVING SOUTH MAY CLIP THE UPPER
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE UPPER WESTERN REACHES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE DAY WILL AGAIN BEGIN WITH BKN
LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LIGHT TO MDT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAXES HELD BACK BY SOIL
MOISTURE...MODEST DISORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AMID AMPLE
COLUMN MOISTURE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS TO
THE WEST WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO KEEPING A VERY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE
WITH NO REAL NORTH CENTRAL GULF SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE. THE REGION
KEEPS HIGH COLUMN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LACKS MUCH OF A
FOCUSING MECHANISM. WITH NEARSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATER TEMPS IN THE
MID 80S AND SURFACE MAX TEMPS REDUCED TWO TO THREE DEGREES BY
INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE THE SEABREEZE FRONT WILL TEND TO BE MORE
DIFFUSE AS WELL...DESPITE A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND REGIME. EXPECT THAT
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE TOGETHER BY SATURDAY BUT MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND KEEP COVERAGE LOWER. WENT WITH
THE INHERITED 20 TO 30 PCT POPS WHICH IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

MID LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS EASTWARD ON SUNDAY WITH NO OTHER REAL
SYNOPTIC LEVEL CHANGES EVIDENT IN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE
ARE HINTS OF VERY WEAK EASTERLY WAVES...WHICH MAKES SENSE IN LATE
SEPTEMBER...BUT NOTHING TO REALLY FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR
MOISTURE. WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON POP AND WARMED MAXES
UP ABOUT A DEGREE FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD
AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST. A STRONGER
EASTERLY WAVE SIGNAL ALSO IS APPARENT IN THE GUIDANCE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH SFC-500MB HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASING. THE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE WAVE AND THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM PERSISTENT 850MB
EASTERLIES KEEPS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STRAY STORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. PEAKED THE CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST
AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE EVIDENT WITH REASONABLE
TIMING CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ARRIVES. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT APPEARS WEAKER IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE AND THE REINFORCING TROUGH
WHICH HAD BEEN PRESENT IN PREVIOUS GLOBAL MODEL RUNS IS MUCH FURTHER
NORTH AND LESS ORGANIZED SO FEEL A LITTLE BETTER ABOUT NOT SEEING A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. DID CONTINUE A SMALL NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT A TRUE AIRMASS CHANGE
LOOKS FAIRLY UNLIKELY AS THE SYSTEM WASHES OUT. COULD ENHANCE
RAINFALL CHANCES WHICH FURTHER LED TO A SORT OF BROAD BRUSH 20 PCT
POP EACH 6 HOUR PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

EXPECT THAT LATER FORECAST CYCLES WILL BE ABLE TO LOCK IN ON SOME OF
THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WE
WILL BE ABLE TO REMOVE SOME OF THE 20 POP PERIODS AND REPLACE A FEW
WITH 30 OR 40 PCT CHANCES AS IT DRAWS CLOSER. SLOWLY WARMED MAX
TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY CLOSER TO MEX/ECX CONSENSUS
ANTICIPATING SLIGHTLY LESS SOIL MOISTURE HOLDING AFTERNOON MAXES
BACK. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEEMINGLY PERENNIAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW TO MDT
SEAS IN THE SHORT TERM. CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AS MOISTURE AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS ODILE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO RIDE OVER A SURFACE
BOUNDARY HANGING ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF THE AREA HOWEVER AND THE LOCAL RADAR IS GENERALLY QUIET
THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST OR
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED
GULF CONVECTION.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE. NO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS OR EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68/CAMPBELL







000
FXUS64 KBRO 181107 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
607 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THIN CIRRUS CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE CWA
THIS MORNING...WHILE LOW CU HAS RESULTED IN TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AT
BRO ON LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. MAY SEE MORE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE LOWER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP
THROUGH THE DAY AND THE WEAK ELEVATED INVERSION SHOULD LIFT...
ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WILL STILL SEE SCT TO BKN
CLOUD STREETS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER. NO OTHER AVIATION ISSUES
SEEN FOR THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
ON LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WEST WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS AS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S....DECAY AND BECOME ABSORBED.
THE INCREASING STABILITY PROVIDED BY THE RIDGE...PLUS THE CURRENT
ABSENCE OF EXTRA MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF...WILL PROVIDE
MORE SETTLED CONDITIONS LOCALLY IN THE SHORT TERM. NONETHELESS...
SURFACE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AN OLD BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST TX...
COUPLED WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THAT AREA TODAY...WILL KEEP
THINGS MORE ACTIVE TO THE NORTH. SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION COULD MAKE
IT TO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES TONIGHT...AND THUS KEPT POPS A
SKOCHE HIGHER THERE AS A RESULT. OVERALL...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED LOCALLY...WITH PWAT REMAINING AROUND TWO INCHES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM.

TODAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP...
WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE...FAVORING A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER
KENEDY AND MAYBE BROOKS COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CHECK IN
CLOSE TO NORMAL...OR JUST A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. A FEW EXTRA MORNING
LOW CLDS WILL YIELD TO A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN LATER THIS MORNING.
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THOUGH...WITH PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES...SO ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN
MAKERS AND COULD PRODUCE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF PRECIP IN A SHORT
AMOUNT OF TIME.

TONIGHT...IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY STRATUS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST...AND EVEN PATCHY LIGHT FOG INLAND...WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS. LOW TEMPS WILL CHECK IN FROM 75 TO 80...A FEW
DEGREES ABV NRML DUE TO THE ELEVATED DEW POINTS. ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MAY FIND ITS WAY DOWN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING WEST OVER TEXAS WILL FOCUS A BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE AREA...AND CONVECTION MOVING SOUTH MAY CLIP THE UPPER
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE UPPER WESTERN REACHES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE DAY WILL AGAIN BEGIN WITH BKN
LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LIGHT TO MDT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAXES HELD BACK BY SOIL
MOISTURE...MODEST DISORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AMID AMPLE
COLUMN MOISTURE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS TO
THE WEST WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO KEEPING A VERY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE
WITH NO REAL NORTH CENTRAL GULF SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE. THE REGION
KEEPS HIGH COLUMN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LACKS MUCH OF A
FOCUSING MECHANISM. WITH NEARSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATER TEMPS IN THE
MID 80S AND SURFACE MAX TEMPS REDUCED TWO TO THREE DEGREES BY
INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE THE SEABREEZE FRONT WILL TEND TO BE MORE
DIFFUSE AS WELL...DESPITE A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND REGIME. EXPECT THAT
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE TOGETHER BY SATURDAY BUT MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND KEEP COVERAGE LOWER. WENT WITH
THE INHERITED 20 TO 30 PCT POPS WHICH IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

MID LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS EASTWARD ON SUNDAY WITH NO OTHER REAL
SYNOPTIC LEVEL CHANGES EVIDENT IN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE
ARE HINTS OF VERY WEAK EASTERLY WAVES...WHICH MAKES SENSE IN LATE
SEPTEMBER...BUT NOTHING TO REALLY FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR
MOISTURE. WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON POP AND WARMED MAXES
UP ABOUT A DEGREE FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD
AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST. A STRONGER
EASTERLY WAVE SIGNAL ALSO IS APPARENT IN THE GUIDANCE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH SFC-500MB HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASING. THE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE WAVE AND THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM PERSISTENT 850MB
EASTERLIES KEEPS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STRAY STORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. PEAKED THE CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST
AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE EVIDENT WITH REASONABLE
TIMING CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ARRIVES. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT APPEARS WEAKER IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE AND THE REINFORCING TROUGH
WHICH HAD BEEN PRESENT IN PREVIOUS GLOBAL MODEL RUNS IS MUCH FURTHER
NORTH AND LESS ORGANIZED SO FEEL A LITTLE BETTER ABOUT NOT SEEING A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. DID CONTINUE A SMALL NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT A TRUE AIRMASS CHANGE
LOOKS FAIRLY UNLIKELY AS THE SYSTEM WASHES OUT. COULD ENHANCE
RAINFALL CHANCES WHICH FURTHER LED TO A SORT OF BROAD BRUSH 20 PCT
POP EACH 6 HOUR PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

EXPECT THAT LATER FORECAST CYCLES WILL BE ABLE TO LOCK IN ON SOME OF
THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WE
WILL BE ABLE TO REMOVE SOME OF THE 20 POP PERIODS AND REPLACE A FEW
WITH 30 OR 40 PCT CHANCES AS IT DRAWS CLOSER. SLOWLY WARMED MAX
TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY CLOSER TO MEX/ECX CONSENSUS
ANTICIPATING SLIGHTLY LESS SOIL MOISTURE HOLDING AFTERNOON MAXES
BACK. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEEMINGLY PERENNIAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW TO MDT
SEAS IN THE SHORT TERM. CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AS MOISTURE AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS ODILE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO RIDE OVER A SURFACE
BOUNDARY HANGING ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF THE AREA HOWEVER AND THE LOCAL RADAR IS GENERALLY QUIET
THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST OR
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED
GULF CONVECTION.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE. NO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS OR EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68/CAMPBELL






000
FXUS64 KBRO 180903
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
403 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WEST WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS AS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S....DECAY AND BECOME ABSORBED.
THE INCREASING STABILITY PROVIDED BY THE RIDGE...PLUS THE CURRENT
ABSENCE OF EXTRA MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF...WILL PROVIDE
MORE SETTLED CONDITIONS LOCALLY IN THE SHORT TERM. NONETHELESS...
SURFACE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AN OLD BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST TX...
COUPLED WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THAT AREA TODAY...WILL KEEP
THINGS MORE ACTIVE TO THE NORTH. SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION COULD MAKE
IT TO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES TONIGHT...AND THUS KEPT POPS A
SKOCHE HIGHER THERE AS A RESULT. OVERALL...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED LOCALLY...WITH PWAT REMAINING AROUND TWO INCHES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM.

TODAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP...
WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE...FAVORING A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER
KENEDY AND MAYBE BROOKS COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CHECK IN
CLOSE TO NORMAL...OR JUST A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. A FEW EXTRA MORNING
LOW CLDS WILL YIELD TO A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN LATER THIS MORNING.
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THOUGH...WITH PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES...SO ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN
MAKERS AND COULD PRODUCE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF PRECIP IN A SHORT
AMOUNT OF TIME.

TONIGHT...IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY STRATUS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST...AND EVEN PATCHY LIGHT FOG INLAND...WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS. LOW TEMPS WILL CHECK IN FROM 75 TO 80...A FEW
DEGREES ABV NRML DUE TO THE ELEVATED DEW POINTS. ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MAY FIND ITS WAY DOWN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING WEST OVER TEXAS WILL FOCUS A BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE AREA...AND CONVECTION MOVING SOUTH MAY CLIP THE UPPER
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE UPPER WESTERN REACHES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE DAY WILL AGAIN BEGIN WITH BKN
LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LIGHT TO MDT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAXES HELD BACK BY SOIL
MOISTURE...MODEST DISORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AMID AMPLE
COLUMN MOISTURE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS TO
THE WEST WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO KEEPING A VERY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE
WITH NO REAL NORTH CENTRAL GULF SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE. THE REGION
KEEPS HIGH COLUMN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LACKS MUCH OF A
FOCUSING MECHANISM. WITH NEARSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATER TEMPS IN THE
MID 80S AND SURFACE MAX TEMPS REDUCED TWO TO THREE DEGREES BY
INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE THE SEABREEZE FRONT WILL TEND TO BE MORE
DIFFUSE AS WELL...DESPITE A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND REGIME. EXPECT THAT
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE TOGETHER BY SATURDAY BUT MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND KEEP COVERAGE LOWER. WENT WITH
THE INHERITED 20 TO 30 PCT POPS WHICH IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

MID LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS EASTWARD ON SUNDAY WITH NO OTHER REAL
SYNOPTIC LEVEL CHANGES EVIDENT IN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE
ARE HINTS OF VERY WEAK EASTERLY WAVES...WHICH MAKES SENSE IN LATE
SEPTEMBER...BUT NOTHING TO REALLY FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR
MOISTURE. WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON POP AND WARMED MAXES
UP ABOUT A DEGREE FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD
AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST. A STRONGER
EASTERLY WAVE SIGNAL ALSO IS APPARENT IN THE GUIDANCE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH SFC-500MB HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASING. THE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE WAVE AND THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM PERSISTENT 850MB
EASTERLIES KEEPS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STRAY STORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. PEAKED THE CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST
AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE EVIDENT WITH REASONABLE
TIMING CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ARRIVES. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT APPEARS WEAKER IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE AND THE REINFORCING TROUGH
WHICH HAD BEEN PRESENT IN PREVIOUS GLOBAL MODEL RUNS IS MUCH FURTHER
NORTH AND LESS ORGANIZED SO FEEL A LITTLE BETTER ABOUT NOT SEEING A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. DID CONTINUE A SMALL NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT A TRUE AIRMASS CHANGE
LOOKS FAIRLY UNLIKELY AS THE SYSTEM WASHES OUT. COULD ENHANCE
RAINFALL CHANCES WHICH FURTHER LED TO A SORT OF BROAD BRUSH 20 PCT
POP EACH 6 HOUR PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

EXPECT THAT LATER FORECAST CYCLES WILL BE ABLE TO LOCK IN ON SOME OF
THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WE
WILL BE ABLE TO REMOVE SOME OF THE 20 POP PERIODS AND REPLACE A FEW
WITH 30 OR 40 PCT CHANCES AS IT DRAWS CLOSER. SLOWLY WARMED MAX
TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY CLOSER TO MEX/ECX CONSENSUS
ANTICIPATING SLIGHTLY LESS SOIL MOISTURE HOLDING AFTERNOON MAXES
BACK. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEEMINGLY PERENNIAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW TO MDT
SEAS IN THE SHORT TERM. CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AS MOISTURE AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS ODILE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO RIDE OVER A SURFACE
BOUNDARY HANGING ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF THE AREA HOWEVER AND THE LOCAL RADAR IS GENERALLY QUIET
THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST OR
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED
GULF CONVECTION.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE. NO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS OR EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  79  90  81 /  20  10  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          92  78  91  79 /  20  10  30  10
HARLINGEN            94  77  92  79 /  20  10  20  10
MCALLEN              95  78  94  79 /  20  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      95  77  94  79 /  20  10  30  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  80  88  81 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68






000
FXUS64 KBRO 180903
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
403 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WEST WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS AS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S....DECAY AND BECOME ABSORBED.
THE INCREASING STABILITY PROVIDED BY THE RIDGE...PLUS THE CURRENT
ABSENCE OF EXTRA MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF...WILL PROVIDE
MORE SETTLED CONDITIONS LOCALLY IN THE SHORT TERM. NONETHELESS...
SURFACE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AN OLD BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST TX...
COUPLED WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THAT AREA TODAY...WILL KEEP
THINGS MORE ACTIVE TO THE NORTH. SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION COULD MAKE
IT TO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES TONIGHT...AND THUS KEPT POPS A
SKOCHE HIGHER THERE AS A RESULT. OVERALL...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED LOCALLY...WITH PWAT REMAINING AROUND TWO INCHES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM.

TODAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP...
WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE...FAVORING A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER
KENEDY AND MAYBE BROOKS COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CHECK IN
CLOSE TO NORMAL...OR JUST A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. A FEW EXTRA MORNING
LOW CLDS WILL YIELD TO A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN LATER THIS MORNING.
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THOUGH...WITH PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES...SO ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN
MAKERS AND COULD PRODUCE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF PRECIP IN A SHORT
AMOUNT OF TIME.

TONIGHT...IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY STRATUS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST...AND EVEN PATCHY LIGHT FOG INLAND...WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS. LOW TEMPS WILL CHECK IN FROM 75 TO 80...A FEW
DEGREES ABV NRML DUE TO THE ELEVATED DEW POINTS. ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MAY FIND ITS WAY DOWN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING WEST OVER TEXAS WILL FOCUS A BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE AREA...AND CONVECTION MOVING SOUTH MAY CLIP THE UPPER
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE UPPER WESTERN REACHES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE DAY WILL AGAIN BEGIN WITH BKN
LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LIGHT TO MDT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAXES HELD BACK BY SOIL
MOISTURE...MODEST DISORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AMID AMPLE
COLUMN MOISTURE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS TO
THE WEST WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO KEEPING A VERY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE
WITH NO REAL NORTH CENTRAL GULF SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE. THE REGION
KEEPS HIGH COLUMN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LACKS MUCH OF A
FOCUSING MECHANISM. WITH NEARSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATER TEMPS IN THE
MID 80S AND SURFACE MAX TEMPS REDUCED TWO TO THREE DEGREES BY
INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE THE SEABREEZE FRONT WILL TEND TO BE MORE
DIFFUSE AS WELL...DESPITE A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND REGIME. EXPECT THAT
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE TOGETHER BY SATURDAY BUT MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND KEEP COVERAGE LOWER. WENT WITH
THE INHERITED 20 TO 30 PCT POPS WHICH IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

MID LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS EASTWARD ON SUNDAY WITH NO OTHER REAL
SYNOPTIC LEVEL CHANGES EVIDENT IN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE
ARE HINTS OF VERY WEAK EASTERLY WAVES...WHICH MAKES SENSE IN LATE
SEPTEMBER...BUT NOTHING TO REALLY FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR
MOISTURE. WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON POP AND WARMED MAXES
UP ABOUT A DEGREE FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD
AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST. A STRONGER
EASTERLY WAVE SIGNAL ALSO IS APPARENT IN THE GUIDANCE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH SFC-500MB HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASING. THE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE WAVE AND THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM PERSISTENT 850MB
EASTERLIES KEEPS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STRAY STORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. PEAKED THE CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST
AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE EVIDENT WITH REASONABLE
TIMING CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ARRIVES. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT APPEARS WEAKER IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE AND THE REINFORCING TROUGH
WHICH HAD BEEN PRESENT IN PREVIOUS GLOBAL MODEL RUNS IS MUCH FURTHER
NORTH AND LESS ORGANIZED SO FEEL A LITTLE BETTER ABOUT NOT SEEING A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. DID CONTINUE A SMALL NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT A TRUE AIRMASS CHANGE
LOOKS FAIRLY UNLIKELY AS THE SYSTEM WASHES OUT. COULD ENHANCE
RAINFALL CHANCES WHICH FURTHER LED TO A SORT OF BROAD BRUSH 20 PCT
POP EACH 6 HOUR PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

EXPECT THAT LATER FORECAST CYCLES WILL BE ABLE TO LOCK IN ON SOME OF
THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WE
WILL BE ABLE TO REMOVE SOME OF THE 20 POP PERIODS AND REPLACE A FEW
WITH 30 OR 40 PCT CHANCES AS IT DRAWS CLOSER. SLOWLY WARMED MAX
TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY CLOSER TO MEX/ECX CONSENSUS
ANTICIPATING SLIGHTLY LESS SOIL MOISTURE HOLDING AFTERNOON MAXES
BACK. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEEMINGLY PERENNIAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW TO MDT
SEAS IN THE SHORT TERM. CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AS MOISTURE AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS ODILE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO RIDE OVER A SURFACE
BOUNDARY HANGING ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF THE AREA HOWEVER AND THE LOCAL RADAR IS GENERALLY QUIET
THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST OR
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED
GULF CONVECTION.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE. NO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS OR EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  79  90  81 /  20  10  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          92  78  91  79 /  20  10  30  10
HARLINGEN            94  77  92  79 /  20  10  20  10
MCALLEN              95  78  94  79 /  20  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      95  77  94  79 /  20  10  30  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  80  88  81 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68







000
FXUS64 KBRO 180545 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1245 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS NOW...BUT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL RIDGING
OVERHEAD IS TAKING HOLD NOW...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS STARTING TO
PICK UP ON A WEAK ELEVATED ISOTHERMAL LAYER TO MINIMAL INVERSION
FROM ABOUT 2500 TO 4000 FT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRAP INCOMING
MARINE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE BASE OF THE LAYER
WILL LIFT SUFFICIENTLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON TO BRING VFR CEILINGS
BACK...BUT LOW LEVEL CLOUD STREETS WILL REMAIN. A SIGNIFICANT SEA
BREEZE SEEMS LESS LIKELY OF LATE...WITH LESSER LAND/SEA TEMP
DIFFERENTIAL...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER
KENEDY COUNTY. PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOW LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEGLIGIBLE ACTIVITY ON RADAR.

KBRO 180523Z 1806/1906 14005KT P6SM SKC
     FM181000 16005KT P6SM FEW020
     FM181500 17013G19KT P6SM BKN030
     FM182000 15014G20KT P6SM SCT250

KHRL 180523Z 1806/1906 15005KT P6SM SKC
     FM181000 16006KT P6SM SCT020
     FM181500 18013G19KT P6SM BKN030
     FM181900 16013KT P6SM SCT250

KMFE 180523Z 1806/1906 14006KT P6SM SKC
     FM181500 15009KT P6SM BKN025
     FM181800 15014KT P6SM BKN050
     FM190000 13011KT P6SM BKN250

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF PEAK
HEATING. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS CURRENTLY WILL RELAX WITHIN 2
HOURS...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT. INVERSION AROUND 2500
FEET WITH DEEPER MOISTURE UNDERNEATH MAY BRING A LLVL CLOUD LAYER
JUST BEFORE DAWN...SETTLING AROUND 1500 FEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
KICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN BY MIDMORNING...WITH CIGS LIFTING
ABOVE 3000 BY 10AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AS
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TRACKS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
ATMOSPHERE WARMS A BIT AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE IN FROM THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL NOT OPTIMIZE THE SEA BREEZE AND COULD
FAVOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER KENEDY AND MAYBE BROOKS COUNTY. MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORS THIS TREND AND FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT KEEPING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVING INLAND ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 WITH BEST CHANCES
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ATMOSPHERE MOISTURE
CONTENT STILLS REMAINS RATHER HIGH WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES SO ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS
AND COULD PRODUCE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.

WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY STRATUS
DEVELOPING AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AT TIMES. WENT WITH A
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 75-80. THURSDAY`S HIGH WILL
BE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. LOW TO MID 90S
SHOULD SUFFICE WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH CLOUDS TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE AND BEYOND. DID HOWEVER GO A DEGREE
ABOVE MODEL BLEND. SUMMER CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER 4 DAYS AT LEAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND DAILY SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES
KEEPING THEM NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE
RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE
NORTH OF THE CWA...ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES
THROUGH SATURDAY AND 850 TO 700 MB LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
70 PERCENT. CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE MAINTAINED A
CHANCE OF POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MIDLEVEL RIDGING GETS FLATTENED AND SHIFTED
WEST BY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THE EASTERN US. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NORTHERN TEXAS ON MONDAY. PWATS LOWER TO
AROUND 1.8 INCHES AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO FIRE UP...DESPITE DRIER AIR MOVING IN. LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW A DAILY SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP...SO
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF 20 TO 30 POPS.

TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z
ECMWF PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS BUT STALL/WASH OUT THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL LOCATION
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT POPS FOR THE REGION TUESDAY.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS TO
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ON SHORE FLOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWERS
PASSING OVER THE LAGUNA. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF
PORT MANSFIELD.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT TO
MODERATE E TO SE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINTAINING
LOW SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND A LIGHT TO
MODERATE CHOP ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS IN AND
AROUND ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68







000
FXUS64 KBRO 180545 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1245 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS NOW...BUT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL RIDGING
OVERHEAD IS TAKING HOLD NOW...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS STARTING TO
PICK UP ON A WEAK ELEVATED ISOTHERMAL LAYER TO MINIMAL INVERSION
FROM ABOUT 2500 TO 4000 FT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRAP INCOMING
MARINE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE BASE OF THE LAYER
WILL LIFT SUFFICIENTLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON TO BRING VFR CEILINGS
BACK...BUT LOW LEVEL CLOUD STREETS WILL REMAIN. A SIGNIFICANT SEA
BREEZE SEEMS LESS LIKELY OF LATE...WITH LESSER LAND/SEA TEMP
DIFFERENTIAL...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER
KENEDY COUNTY. PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOW LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEGLIGIBLE ACTIVITY ON RADAR.

KBRO 180523Z 1806/1906 14005KT P6SM SKC
     FM181000 16005KT P6SM FEW020
     FM181500 17013G19KT P6SM BKN030
     FM182000 15014G20KT P6SM SCT250

KHRL 180523Z 1806/1906 15005KT P6SM SKC
     FM181000 16006KT P6SM SCT020
     FM181500 18013G19KT P6SM BKN030
     FM181900 16013KT P6SM SCT250

KMFE 180523Z 1806/1906 14006KT P6SM SKC
     FM181500 15009KT P6SM BKN025
     FM181800 15014KT P6SM BKN050
     FM190000 13011KT P6SM BKN250

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF PEAK
HEATING. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS CURRENTLY WILL RELAX WITHIN 2
HOURS...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT. INVERSION AROUND 2500
FEET WITH DEEPER MOISTURE UNDERNEATH MAY BRING A LLVL CLOUD LAYER
JUST BEFORE DAWN...SETTLING AROUND 1500 FEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
KICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN BY MIDMORNING...WITH CIGS LIFTING
ABOVE 3000 BY 10AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AS
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TRACKS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
ATMOSPHERE WARMS A BIT AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE IN FROM THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL NOT OPTIMIZE THE SEA BREEZE AND COULD
FAVOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER KENEDY AND MAYBE BROOKS COUNTY. MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORS THIS TREND AND FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT KEEPING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVING INLAND ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 WITH BEST CHANCES
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ATMOSPHERE MOISTURE
CONTENT STILLS REMAINS RATHER HIGH WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES SO ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS
AND COULD PRODUCE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.

WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY STRATUS
DEVELOPING AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AT TIMES. WENT WITH A
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 75-80. THURSDAY`S HIGH WILL
BE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. LOW TO MID 90S
SHOULD SUFFICE WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH CLOUDS TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE AND BEYOND. DID HOWEVER GO A DEGREE
ABOVE MODEL BLEND. SUMMER CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER 4 DAYS AT LEAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND DAILY SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES
KEEPING THEM NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE
RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE
NORTH OF THE CWA...ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES
THROUGH SATURDAY AND 850 TO 700 MB LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
70 PERCENT. CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE MAINTAINED A
CHANCE OF POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MIDLEVEL RIDGING GETS FLATTENED AND SHIFTED
WEST BY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THE EASTERN US. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NORTHERN TEXAS ON MONDAY. PWATS LOWER TO
AROUND 1.8 INCHES AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO FIRE UP...DESPITE DRIER AIR MOVING IN. LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW A DAILY SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP...SO
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF 20 TO 30 POPS.

TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z
ECMWF PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS BUT STALL/WASH OUT THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL LOCATION
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT POPS FOR THE REGION TUESDAY.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS TO
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ON SHORE FLOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWERS
PASSING OVER THE LAGUNA. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF
PORT MANSFIELD.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT TO
MODERATE E TO SE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINTAINING
LOW SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND A LIGHT TO
MODERATE CHOP ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS IN AND
AROUND ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68






000
FXUS64 KBRO 172325 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
625 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF PEAK
HEATING. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS CURRENTLY WILL RELAX WITHIN 2
HOURS...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT. INVERSION AROUND 2500
FEET WITH DEEPER MOISTURE UNDERNEATH MAY BRING A LLVL CLOUD LAYER
JUST BEFORE DAWN...SETTLING AROUND 1500 FEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
KICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN BY MIDMORNING...WITH CIGS LIFTING
ABOVE 3000 BY 10AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AS
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TRACKS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
ATMOSPHERE WARMS A BIT AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE IN FROM THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL NOT OPTIMIZE THE SEA BREEZE AND COULD
FAVOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER KENEDY AND MAYBE BROOKS COUNTY. MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORS THIS TREND AND FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT KEEPING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVING INLAND ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 WITH BEST CHANCES
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ATMOSPHERE MOISTURE
CONTENT STILLS REMAINS RATHER HIGH WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES SO ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS
AND COULD PRODUCE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.

WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY STRATUS
DEVELOPING AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AT TIMES. WENT WITH A
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 75-80. THURSDAY`S HIGH WILL
BE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. LOW TO MID 90S
SHOULD SUFFICE WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH CLOUDS TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE AND BEYOND. DID HOWEVER GO A DEGREE
ABOVE MODEL BLEND. SUMMER CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER 4 DAYS AT LEAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND DAILY SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES
KEEPING THEM NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE
RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE
NORTH OF THE CWA...ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES
THROUGH SATURDAY AND 850 TO 700 MB LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
70 PERCENT. CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE MAINTAINED A
CHANCE OF POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MIDLEVEL RIDGING GETS FLATTENED AND SHIFTED
WEST BY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THE EASTERN US. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NORTHERN TEXAS ON MONDAY. PWATS LOWER TO
AROUND 1.8 INCHES AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO FIRE UP...DESPITE DRIER AIR MOVING IN. LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW A DAILY SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP...SO
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF 20 TO 30 POPS.

TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z
ECMWF PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS BUT STALL/WASH OUT THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL LOCATION
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT POPS FOR THE REGION TUESDAY.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS TO
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ON SHORE FLOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWERS
PASSING OVER THE LAGUNA. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF
PORT MANSFIELD.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT TO
MODERATE E TO SE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINTAINING
LOW SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND A LIGHT TO
MODERATE CHOP ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS IN AND
AROUND ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64






000
FXUS64 KBRO 172325 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
625 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF PEAK
HEATING. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS CURRENTLY WILL RELAX WITHIN 2
HOURS...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT. INVERSION AROUND 2500
FEET WITH DEEPER MOISTURE UNDERNEATH MAY BRING A LLVL CLOUD LAYER
JUST BEFORE DAWN...SETTLING AROUND 1500 FEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
KICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN BY MIDMORNING...WITH CIGS LIFTING
ABOVE 3000 BY 10AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AS
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TRACKS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
ATMOSPHERE WARMS A BIT AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE IN FROM THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL NOT OPTIMIZE THE SEA BREEZE AND COULD
FAVOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER KENEDY AND MAYBE BROOKS COUNTY. MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORS THIS TREND AND FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT KEEPING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVING INLAND ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 WITH BEST CHANCES
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ATMOSPHERE MOISTURE
CONTENT STILLS REMAINS RATHER HIGH WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES SO ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS
AND COULD PRODUCE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.

WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY STRATUS
DEVELOPING AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AT TIMES. WENT WITH A
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 75-80. THURSDAY`S HIGH WILL
BE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. LOW TO MID 90S
SHOULD SUFFICE WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH CLOUDS TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE AND BEYOND. DID HOWEVER GO A DEGREE
ABOVE MODEL BLEND. SUMMER CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER 4 DAYS AT LEAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND DAILY SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES
KEEPING THEM NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE
RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE
NORTH OF THE CWA...ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES
THROUGH SATURDAY AND 850 TO 700 MB LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
70 PERCENT. CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE MAINTAINED A
CHANCE OF POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MIDLEVEL RIDGING GETS FLATTENED AND SHIFTED
WEST BY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THE EASTERN US. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NORTHERN TEXAS ON MONDAY. PWATS LOWER TO
AROUND 1.8 INCHES AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO FIRE UP...DESPITE DRIER AIR MOVING IN. LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW A DAILY SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP...SO
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF 20 TO 30 POPS.

TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z
ECMWF PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS BUT STALL/WASH OUT THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL LOCATION
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT POPS FOR THE REGION TUESDAY.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS TO
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ON SHORE FLOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWERS
PASSING OVER THE LAGUNA. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF
PORT MANSFIELD.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT TO
MODERATE E TO SE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINTAINING
LOW SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND A LIGHT TO
MODERATE CHOP ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS IN AND
AROUND ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64







000
FXUS64 KBRO 172001
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
301 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AS
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TRACKS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
ATMOSPHERE WARMS A BIT AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE IN FROM THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL NOT OPTIMIZE THE SEA BREEZE AND COULD
FAVOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER KENEDY AND MAYBE BROOKS COUNTY. MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORS THIS TREND AND FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT KEEPING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVING INLAND ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 WITH BEST CHANCES
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ATMOSPHERE MOISTURE
CONTENT STILLS REMAINS RATHER HIGH WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES SO ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS
AND COULD PRODUCE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.

WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY STRATUS
DEVELOPING AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AT TIMES. WENT WITH A
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 75-80. THURSDAY`S HIGH WILL
BE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. LOW TO MID 90S
SHOULD SUFFICE WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH CLOUDS TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE AND BEYOND. DID HOWEVER GO A DEGREE
ABOVE MODEL BLEND. SUMMER CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER 4 DAYS AT LEAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND DAILY SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES
KEEPING THEM NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE
RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE
NORTH OF THE CWA...ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES
THROUGH SATURDAY AND 850 TO 700 MB LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
70 PERCENT. CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE MAINTAINED A
CHANCE OF POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MIDLEVEL RIDGING GETS FLATTENED AND SHIFTED
WEST BY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THE EASTERN US. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NORTHERN TEXAS ON MONDAY. PWATS LOWER TO
AROUND 1.8 INCHES AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO FIRE UP...DESPITE DRIER AIR MOVING IN. LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW A DAILY SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP...SO
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF 20 TO 30 POPS.

TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z
ECMWF PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS BUT STALL/WASH OUT THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL LOCATION
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT POPS FOR THE REGION TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS TO
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ON SHORE FLOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWERS
PASSING OVER THE LAGUNA. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF
PORT MANSFIELD.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT TO
MODERATE E TO SE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINTAINING
LOW SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND A LIGHT TO
MODERATE CHOP ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS IN AND
AROUND ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  90  79  89 /  10  20  20  40
BROWNSVILLE          77  92  77  91 /  10  20  20  40
HARLINGEN            76  94  76  92 /  10  20  10  40
MCALLEN              77  95  78  92 /  10  10  10  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  95  78  93 /  10  10  10  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  87  80  87 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/58/MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 172001
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
301 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AS
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TRACKS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
ATMOSPHERE WARMS A BIT AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE IN FROM THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL NOT OPTIMIZE THE SEA BREEZE AND COULD
FAVOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER KENEDY AND MAYBE BROOKS COUNTY. MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORS THIS TREND AND FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT KEEPING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVING INLAND ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 WITH BEST CHANCES
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ATMOSPHERE MOISTURE
CONTENT STILLS REMAINS RATHER HIGH WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES SO ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS
AND COULD PRODUCE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.

WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY STRATUS
DEVELOPING AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AT TIMES. WENT WITH A
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 75-80. THURSDAY`S HIGH WILL
BE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. LOW TO MID 90S
SHOULD SUFFICE WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH CLOUDS TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE AND BEYOND. DID HOWEVER GO A DEGREE
ABOVE MODEL BLEND. SUMMER CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER 4 DAYS AT LEAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND DAILY SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES
KEEPING THEM NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE
RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE
NORTH OF THE CWA...ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES
THROUGH SATURDAY AND 850 TO 700 MB LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
70 PERCENT. CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE MAINTAINED A
CHANCE OF POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MIDLEVEL RIDGING GETS FLATTENED AND SHIFTED
WEST BY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THE EASTERN US. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NORTHERN TEXAS ON MONDAY. PWATS LOWER TO
AROUND 1.8 INCHES AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO FIRE UP...DESPITE DRIER AIR MOVING IN. LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW A DAILY SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP...SO
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF 20 TO 30 POPS.

TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z
ECMWF PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS BUT STALL/WASH OUT THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL LOCATION
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT POPS FOR THE REGION TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS TO
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ON SHORE FLOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWERS
PASSING OVER THE LAGUNA. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF
PORT MANSFIELD.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT TO
MODERATE E TO SE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINTAINING
LOW SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND A LIGHT TO
MODERATE CHOP ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS IN AND
AROUND ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  90  79  89 /  10  20  20  40
BROWNSVILLE          77  92  77  91 /  10  20  20  40
HARLINGEN            76  94  76  92 /  10  20  10  40
MCALLEN              77  95  78  92 /  10  10  10  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  95  78  93 /  10  10  10  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  87  80  87 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/58/MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 171739 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1239 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A LITTLE STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PRODUCING AN
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND EAST HIGHWAY 77. FLIGHT
CATEGORIES ARE DOMINATE VFR WITHIN THIS CLOUD FIELD BUT COULD
BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR AROUND 2500-3000 FEET. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN
HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST OF THE COASTLINE.  WESTERN AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS. WEAK
SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING LATE
OR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE. BEST PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR
CIGS WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 WITH BRIEF IMPACTS AT KMFE AND
POSSIBLY AT KHRL THURSDAY MORNING. MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KNOTS MAYBE A LITTLE STRONGER THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...REDUCED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME WARMING TAKING PLACE
BETWEEN 850-700MB THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO MAKE HEADWAY TOO FAR WEST. RAP AND
SREF AS WELL AS A CONSALL MODEL BLEND KEEP THE BEST CHANCES ALONG
THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH KENEDY COUNTY HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AS WELL TO ACCOMMODATE WHERE POPS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES LOOK WITHIN THE BALL PARK WITH NO
CHANGES AT THIS TIME. NEW TEMP/POP TABLE BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS. RADAR IS QUIETER THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY A FEW MARINE SHOWERS DEPICTED. LOOKING AT JUST A FEW
MID VALLEY LOW CLOUDS FROM OBSERVATIONS AND JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ON SATELLITE ORIGINATING FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN A FEW SPOTS IS
NOT SIGNIFICANT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MOSTLY ABOVE 3 KFT BY LATE
MORNING DUE TO AMPLE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL HELP STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT ISOLD
SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP TODAY...INCLUDING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...COLUMN MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH PWAT HOVERING AROUND TWO INCHES. MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD...SUPPORTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF...WILL TEND TO STABILIZE WEATHER CONDITIONS HOWEVER...WITH A
SITUATION MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT A SEA BREEZE RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. NONETHELESS...A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP...WHICH
COULD BE OF CONCERN TO AREAS WHICH RECENTLY RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY SUCCEED IN DEVELOPING SOME SUBSIDENCE
AND INHIBITION IN THE SOUNDING...AND FEEL THAT TODAY MIGHT BE BETTER
FOR WESTWARD MVG SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAN TOMORROW...BUT ANOTHER
SEA BREEZE ROUND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ORIGINATING WITH
ODILE WILL STILL BE IN THE MIX. MID 70S WILL BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH
A FEW MORE LOW CLDS DUE TO WINDS BACKING A BIT TO A MORE SOUTHEAST
ONSHORE FLOW. LOOK FOR INCREASED LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAK
CAP BUT STILL PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. MAINTAINED MUCH OF THE INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE...BUT TRENDED POPS DOWN JUST A WEE BIT...10 PERCENT HERE AND
THERE...BASED ON MORE STABILITY AND A LESSER SOURCE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. USED A BLEND FOR TEMPS BUT BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE
FROM THE BLEND BASED ON TUESDAY`S PERFORMANCE AND CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME SUN AGAIN TODAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL RETAIN RICH COLUMN MOISTURE WITH
850-700MB RH VALUES OVER 70 PERCENT. NORTHWESTERLY 300-500MB FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THAT LAYER OVER WEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS WEAK
PERTURBATIONS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MODERATE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT 20 TO 30 PCT
POPS IN THE FORECAST IN THE MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO 40 PCT VALLEY
WIDE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 50 PCT OVER THE RANCHLANDS WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MID LEVEL ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ENHANCING
SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.0 TO 2.2
INCHES WILL POSITION ANY CELL THAT GETS GOING TO BE A VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCER...ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION AND COVERAGE SHOULD
PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FLOODING RISK...ASSUMING LIMITED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THE GFS DISRUPTS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST 850 TO 700MB
MOISTURE TAP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS ABOUT 10
TO 15 KNOT FLOW GOING. BOTH SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON WEAK WAVES
DEVELOPED BY CONVECTION OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN. THE ECMWF
APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE BASED ON HOW THESE SYSTEMS HAVE
BEHAVED THIS SEASON AND LEANED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
ECMWF...WHICH MATCHES WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST WELL. THIS CALLS
FOR LOW POPS IN THE MORNING PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AT 20 TO 30 PCT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LITTLE CHANGED. MID
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE
REMAIN IN MOIST 850-700MB SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW WITH NO
REAL DISCERNIBLE WAVES TO ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WENT WITH POP
PATTERN FAVORING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WORKING
INTO SEABREEZE INITIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH 30 PCT POPS IN THE FAVORED ZONES...BASICALLY VALLEY WIDE SUNDAY
AND IN A RAYMONDVILLE/HEBBRONVILLE/FALFURRIAS TRIANGLE ON MONDAY
SURROUNDED BY 20 PCT POPS. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT
PERSISTENT 500MB SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY AND ULTIMATELY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
BY MAKING NEW UPDRAFTS FIGHT A MORE HOSTILE AIRMASS.

TUESDAY THE ECMWF PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
RIDGING OVER THE DAKOTAS WHICH ULTIMATELY HELPS PUSH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS BRINGS A JET MAX INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM NEARLY DUE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WHICH BETTER AGREES WITH THE ONGOING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST CONUS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO LEAN IN A SLIGHT MAJORITY
TOWARDS THE MORE NORTHWESTWARD ORIENTED SPEED MAX WHICH LENDS
CREDIBILITY TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND
STRONGER WITH RIDGING THAT RESULTS IN THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
INTRODUCED 20/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE FRONT. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY HAS BEEN POOR OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS.

WEDNESDAY THE GFS SENDS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH A 300MB WEST TEXAS TROUGH WHILE THE GFS SHOWS AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH WHICH GENERATES A WEST TEXAS SFC CYCLONE
THAT RIDES OVER A STALLED FRONT IN THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. THE ECMWF HOLDS UP BETTER RUN TO RUN AND GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS
STRENGTH OF THE 00Z GFS TROUGH WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST JUST
HOLDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A SHIFT THOUGH
TOWARDS A FINAL GFS SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN
RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH WEST
GULF WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TWO TO FOUR FEET SEAS WILL PERSIST ON THE
GULF...WITH A LGT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE BAY. AN ISOLATED MARINE
SHOWER MAY DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  80  90  79 /  20  20  40  20
BROWNSVILLE          91  78  91  78 /  20  20  40  20
HARLINGEN            92  78  93  77 /  20  20  40  20
MCALLEN              94  78  94  78 /  10  10  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      94  77  95  78 /  10  10  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  81  87  80 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/58







000
FXUS64 KBRO 171739 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1239 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A LITTLE STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PRODUCING AN
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND EAST HIGHWAY 77. FLIGHT
CATEGORIES ARE DOMINATE VFR WITHIN THIS CLOUD FIELD BUT COULD
BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR AROUND 2500-3000 FEET. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN
HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST OF THE COASTLINE.  WESTERN AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS. WEAK
SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING LATE
OR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE. BEST PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR
CIGS WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 WITH BRIEF IMPACTS AT KMFE AND
POSSIBLY AT KHRL THURSDAY MORNING. MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KNOTS MAYBE A LITTLE STRONGER THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...REDUCED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME WARMING TAKING PLACE
BETWEEN 850-700MB THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO MAKE HEADWAY TOO FAR WEST. RAP AND
SREF AS WELL AS A CONSALL MODEL BLEND KEEP THE BEST CHANCES ALONG
THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH KENEDY COUNTY HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AS WELL TO ACCOMMODATE WHERE POPS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES LOOK WITHIN THE BALL PARK WITH NO
CHANGES AT THIS TIME. NEW TEMP/POP TABLE BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS. RADAR IS QUIETER THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY A FEW MARINE SHOWERS DEPICTED. LOOKING AT JUST A FEW
MID VALLEY LOW CLOUDS FROM OBSERVATIONS AND JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ON SATELLITE ORIGINATING FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN A FEW SPOTS IS
NOT SIGNIFICANT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MOSTLY ABOVE 3 KFT BY LATE
MORNING DUE TO AMPLE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL HELP STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT ISOLD
SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP TODAY...INCLUDING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...COLUMN MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH PWAT HOVERING AROUND TWO INCHES. MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD...SUPPORTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF...WILL TEND TO STABILIZE WEATHER CONDITIONS HOWEVER...WITH A
SITUATION MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT A SEA BREEZE RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. NONETHELESS...A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP...WHICH
COULD BE OF CONCERN TO AREAS WHICH RECENTLY RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY SUCCEED IN DEVELOPING SOME SUBSIDENCE
AND INHIBITION IN THE SOUNDING...AND FEEL THAT TODAY MIGHT BE BETTER
FOR WESTWARD MVG SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAN TOMORROW...BUT ANOTHER
SEA BREEZE ROUND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ORIGINATING WITH
ODILE WILL STILL BE IN THE MIX. MID 70S WILL BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH
A FEW MORE LOW CLDS DUE TO WINDS BACKING A BIT TO A MORE SOUTHEAST
ONSHORE FLOW. LOOK FOR INCREASED LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAK
CAP BUT STILL PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. MAINTAINED MUCH OF THE INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE...BUT TRENDED POPS DOWN JUST A WEE BIT...10 PERCENT HERE AND
THERE...BASED ON MORE STABILITY AND A LESSER SOURCE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. USED A BLEND FOR TEMPS BUT BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE
FROM THE BLEND BASED ON TUESDAY`S PERFORMANCE AND CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME SUN AGAIN TODAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL RETAIN RICH COLUMN MOISTURE WITH
850-700MB RH VALUES OVER 70 PERCENT. NORTHWESTERLY 300-500MB FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THAT LAYER OVER WEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS WEAK
PERTURBATIONS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MODERATE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT 20 TO 30 PCT
POPS IN THE FORECAST IN THE MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO 40 PCT VALLEY
WIDE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 50 PCT OVER THE RANCHLANDS WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MID LEVEL ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ENHANCING
SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.0 TO 2.2
INCHES WILL POSITION ANY CELL THAT GETS GOING TO BE A VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCER...ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION AND COVERAGE SHOULD
PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FLOODING RISK...ASSUMING LIMITED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THE GFS DISRUPTS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST 850 TO 700MB
MOISTURE TAP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS ABOUT 10
TO 15 KNOT FLOW GOING. BOTH SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON WEAK WAVES
DEVELOPED BY CONVECTION OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN. THE ECMWF
APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE BASED ON HOW THESE SYSTEMS HAVE
BEHAVED THIS SEASON AND LEANED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
ECMWF...WHICH MATCHES WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST WELL. THIS CALLS
FOR LOW POPS IN THE MORNING PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AT 20 TO 30 PCT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LITTLE CHANGED. MID
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE
REMAIN IN MOIST 850-700MB SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW WITH NO
REAL DISCERNIBLE WAVES TO ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WENT WITH POP
PATTERN FAVORING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WORKING
INTO SEABREEZE INITIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH 30 PCT POPS IN THE FAVORED ZONES...BASICALLY VALLEY WIDE SUNDAY
AND IN A RAYMONDVILLE/HEBBRONVILLE/FALFURRIAS TRIANGLE ON MONDAY
SURROUNDED BY 20 PCT POPS. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT
PERSISTENT 500MB SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY AND ULTIMATELY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
BY MAKING NEW UPDRAFTS FIGHT A MORE HOSTILE AIRMASS.

TUESDAY THE ECMWF PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
RIDGING OVER THE DAKOTAS WHICH ULTIMATELY HELPS PUSH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS BRINGS A JET MAX INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM NEARLY DUE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WHICH BETTER AGREES WITH THE ONGOING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST CONUS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO LEAN IN A SLIGHT MAJORITY
TOWARDS THE MORE NORTHWESTWARD ORIENTED SPEED MAX WHICH LENDS
CREDIBILITY TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND
STRONGER WITH RIDGING THAT RESULTS IN THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
INTRODUCED 20/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE FRONT. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY HAS BEEN POOR OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS.

WEDNESDAY THE GFS SENDS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH A 300MB WEST TEXAS TROUGH WHILE THE GFS SHOWS AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH WHICH GENERATES A WEST TEXAS SFC CYCLONE
THAT RIDES OVER A STALLED FRONT IN THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. THE ECMWF HOLDS UP BETTER RUN TO RUN AND GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS
STRENGTH OF THE 00Z GFS TROUGH WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST JUST
HOLDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A SHIFT THOUGH
TOWARDS A FINAL GFS SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN
RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH WEST
GULF WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TWO TO FOUR FEET SEAS WILL PERSIST ON THE
GULF...WITH A LGT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE BAY. AN ISOLATED MARINE
SHOWER MAY DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  80  90  79 /  20  20  40  20
BROWNSVILLE          91  78  91  78 /  20  20  40  20
HARLINGEN            92  78  93  77 /  20  20  40  20
MCALLEN              94  78  94  78 /  10  10  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      94  77  95  78 /  10  10  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  81  87  80 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/58






000
FXUS64 KBRO 171633
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1133 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...REDUCED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME WARMING TAKING PLACE
BETWEEN 850-700MB THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO MAKE HEADWAY TOO FAR WEST. RAP AND
SREF AS WELL AS A CONSALL MODEL BLEND KEEP THE BEST CHANCES ALONG
THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH KENEDY COUNTY HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AS WELL TO ACCOMMODATE WHERE POPS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES LOOK WITHIN THE BALL PARK WITH NO
CHANGES AT THIS TIME. NEW TEMP/POP TABLE BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS. RADAR IS QUIETER THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY A FEW MARINE SHOWERS DEPICTED. LOOKING AT JUST A FEW
MID VALLEY LOW CLOUDS FROM OBSERVATIONS AND JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ON SATELLITE ORIGINATING FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN A FEW SPOTS IS
NOT SIGNIFICANT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MOSTLY ABOVE 3 KFT BY LATE
MORNING DUE TO AMPLE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL HELP STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT ISOLD
SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP TODAY...INCLUDING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...COLUMN MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH PWAT HOVERING AROUND TWO INCHES. MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD...SUPPORTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF...WILL TEND TO STABILIZE WEATHER CONDITIONS HOWEVER...WITH A
SITUATION MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT A SEA BREEZE RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. NONETHELESS...A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP...WHICH
COULD BE OF CONCERN TO AREAS WHICH RECENTLY RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY SUCCEED IN DEVELOPING SOME SUBSIDENCE
AND INHIBITION IN THE SOUNDING...AND FEEL THAT TODAY MIGHT BE BETTER
FOR WESTWARD MVG SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAN TOMORROW...BUT ANOTHER
SEA BREEZE ROUND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ORIGINATING WITH
ODILE WILL STILL BE IN THE MIX. MID 70S WILL BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH
A FEW MORE LOW CLDS DUE TO WINDS BACKING A BIT TO A MORE SOUTHEAST
ONSHORE FLOW. LOOK FOR INCREASED LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAK
CAP BUT STILL PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. MAINTAINED MUCH OF THE INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE...BUT TRENDED POPS DOWN JUST A WEE BIT...10 PERCENT HERE AND
THERE...BASED ON MORE STABILITY AND A LESSER SOURCE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. USED A BLEND FOR TEMPS BUT BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE
FROM THE BLEND BASED ON TUESDAY`S PERFORMANCE AND CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME SUN AGAIN TODAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL RETAIN RICH COLUMN MOISTURE WITH
850-700MB RH VALUES OVER 70 PERCENT. NORTHWESTERLY 300-500MB FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THAT LAYER OVER WEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS WEAK
PERTURBATIONS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MODERATE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT 20 TO 30 PCT
POPS IN THE FORECAST IN THE MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO 40 PCT VALLEY
WIDE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 50 PCT OVER THE RANCHLANDS WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MID LEVEL ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ENHANCING
SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.0 TO 2.2
INCHES WILL POSITION ANY CELL THAT GETS GOING TO BE A VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCER...ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION AND COVERAGE SHOULD
PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FLOODING RISK...ASSUMING LIMITED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THE GFS DISRUPTS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST 850 TO 700MB
MOISTURE TAP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS ABOUT 10
TO 15 KNOT FLOW GOING. BOTH SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON WEAK WAVES
DEVELOPED BY CONVECTION OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN. THE ECMWF
APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE BASED ON HOW THESE SYSTEMS HAVE
BEHAVED THIS SEASON AND LEANED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
ECMWF...WHICH MATCHES WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST WELL. THIS CALLS
FOR LOW POPS IN THE MORNING PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AT 20 TO 30 PCT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LITTLE CHANGED. MID
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE
REMAIN IN MOIST 850-700MB SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW WITH NO
REAL DISCERNIBLE WAVES TO ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WENT WITH POP
PATTERN FAVORING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WORKING
INTO SEABREEZE INITIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH 30 PCT POPS IN THE FAVORED ZONES...BASICALLY VALLEY WIDE SUNDAY
AND IN A RAYMONDVILLE/HEBBRONVILLE/FALFURRIAS TRIANGLE ON MONDAY
SURROUNDED BY 20 PCT POPS. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT
PERSISTENT 500MB SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY AND ULTIMATELY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
BY MAKING NEW UPDRAFTS FIGHT A MORE HOSTILE AIRMASS.

TUESDAY THE ECMWF PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
RIDGING OVER THE DAKOTAS WHICH ULTIMATELY HELPS PUSH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS BRINGS A JET MAX INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM NEARLY DUE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WHICH BETTER AGREES WITH THE ONGOING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST CONUS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO LEAN IN A SLIGHT MAJORITY
TOWARDS THE MORE NORTHWESTWARD ORIENTED SPEED MAX WHICH LENDS
CREDIBILITY TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND
STRONGER WITH RIDGING THAT RESULTS IN THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
INTRODUCED 20/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE FRONT. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY HAS BEEN POOR OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS.

WEDNESDAY THE GFS SENDS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH A 300MB WEST TEXAS TROUGH WHILE THE GFS SHOWS AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH WHICH GENERATES A WEST TEXAS SFC CYCLONE
THAT RIDES OVER A STALLED FRONT IN THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. THE ECMWF HOLDS UP BETTER RUN TO RUN AND GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS
STRENGTH OF THE 00Z GFS TROUGH WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST JUST
HOLDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A SHIFT THOUGH
TOWARDS A FINAL GFS SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN
RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH WEST
GULF WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TWO TO FOUR FEET SEAS WILL PERSIST ON THE
GULF...WITH A LGT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE BAY. AN ISOLATED MARINE
SHOWER MAY DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  80  90  79 /  20  20  40  20
BROWNSVILLE          91  78  91  78 /  20  20  40  20
HARLINGEN            92  78  93  77 /  20  20  40  20
MCALLEN              94  78  94  78 /  10  10  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      94  77  95  78 /  10  10  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  81  87  80 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...SHORT TERM
58...LONG TERM
CAMPBELL...GRAPHICS






000
FXUS64 KBRO 171106 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
606 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS. RADAR IS QUIETER THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY A FEW MARINE SHOWERS DEPICTED. LOOKING AT JUST A FEW
MID VALLEY LOW CLOUDS FROM OBSERVATIONS AND JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ON SATELLITE ORIGINATING FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN A FEW SPOTS IS
NOT SIGNIFICANT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MOSTLY ABOVE 3 KFT BY LATE
MORNING DUE TO AMPLE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL HELP STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT ISOLD
SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP TODAY...INCLUDING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...COLUMN MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH PWAT HOVERING AROUND TWO INCHES. MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD...SUPPORTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF...WILL TEND TO STABILIZE WEATHER CONDITIONS HOWEVER...WITH A
SITUATION MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT A SEA BREEZE RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. NONETHELESS...A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP...WHICH
COULD BE OF CONCERN TO AREAS WHICH RECENTLY RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY SUCCEED IN DEVELOPING SOME SUBSIDENCE
AND INHIBITION IN THE SOUNDING...AND FEEL THAT TODAY MIGHT BE BETTER
FOR WESTWARD MVG SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAN TOMORROW...BUT ANOTHER
SEA BREEZE ROUND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ORIGINATING WITH
ODILE WILL STILL BE IN THE MIX. MID 70S WILL BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH
A FEW MORE LOW CLDS DUE TO WINDS BACKING A BIT TO A MORE SOUTHEAST
ONSHORE FLOW. LOOK FOR INCREASED LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAK
CAP BUT STILL PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. MAINTAINED MUCH OF THE INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE...BUT TRENDED POPS DOWN JUST A WEE BIT...10 PERCENT HERE AND
THERE...BASED ON MORE STABILITY AND A LESSER SOURCE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. USED A BLEND FOR TEMPS BUT BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE
FROM THE BLEND BASED ON TUESDAY`S PERFORMANCE AND CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME SUN AGAIN TODAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL RETAIN RICH COLUMN MOISTURE WITH
850-700MB RH VALUES OVER 70 PERCENT. NORTHWESTERLY 300-500MB FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THAT LAYER OVER WEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS WEAK
PERTURBATIONS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MODERATE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT 20 TO 30 PCT
POPS IN THE FORECAST IN THE MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO 40 PCT VALLEY
WIDE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 50 PCT OVER THE RANCHLANDS WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MID LEVEL ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ENHANCING
SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.0 TO 2.2
INCHES WILL POSITION ANY CELL THAT GETS GOING TO BE A VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCER...ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION AND COVERAGE SHOULD
PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FLOODING RISK...ASSUMING LIMITED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THE GFS DISRUPTS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST 850 TO 700MB
MOISTURE TAP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS ABOUT 10
TO 15 KNOT FLOW GOING. BOTH SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON WEAK WAVES
DEVELOPED BY CONVECTION OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN. THE ECMWF
APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE BASED ON HOW THESE SYSTEMS HAVE
BEHAVED THIS SEASON AND LEANED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
ECMWF...WHICH MATCHES WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST WELL. THIS CALLS
FOR LOW POPS IN THE MORNING PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AT 20 TO 30 PCT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LITTLE CHANGED. MID
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE
REMAIN IN MOIST 850-700MB SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW WITH NO
REAL DISCERNIBLE WAVES TO ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WENT WITH POP
PATTERN FAVORING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WORKING
INTO SEABREEZE INITIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH 30 PCT POPS IN THE FAVORED ZONES...BASICALLY VALLEY WIDE SUNDAY
AND IN A RAYMONDVILLE/HEBBRONVILLE/FALFURRIAS TRIANGLE ON MONDAY
SURROUNDED BY 20 PCT POPS. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT
PERSISTENT 500MB SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY AND ULTIMATELY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
BY MAKING NEW UPDRAFTS FIGHT A MORE HOSTILE AIRMASS.

TUESDAY THE ECMWF PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
RIDGING OVER THE DAKOTAS WHICH ULTIMATELY HELPS PUSH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS BRINGS A JET MAX INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM NEARLY DUE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WHICH BETTER AGREES WITH THE ONGOING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST CONUS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO LEAN IN A SLIGHT MAJORITY
TOWARDS THE MORE NORTHWESTWARD ORIENTED SPEED MAX WHICH LENDS
CREDIBILITY TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND
STRONGER WITH RIDGING THAT RESULTS IN THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
INTRODUCED 20/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE FRONT. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY HAS BEEN POOR OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS.

WEDNESDAY THE GFS SENDS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH A 300MB WEST TEXAS TROUGH WHILE THE GFS SHOWS AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH WHICH GENERATES A WEST TEXAS SFC CYCLONE
THAT RIDES OVER A STALLED FRONT IN THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. THE ECMWF HOLDS UP BETTER RUN TO RUN AND GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS
STRENGTH OF THE 00Z GFS TROUGH WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST JUST
HOLDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A SHIFT THOUGH
TOWARDS A FINAL GFS SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN
RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH WEST
GULF WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TWO TO FOUR FEET SEAS WILL PERSIST ON THE
GULF...WITH A LGT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE BAY. AN ISOLATED MARINE
SHOWER MAY DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68/CAMPBELL






000
FXUS64 KBRO 171106 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
606 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS. RADAR IS QUIETER THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY A FEW MARINE SHOWERS DEPICTED. LOOKING AT JUST A FEW
MID VALLEY LOW CLOUDS FROM OBSERVATIONS AND JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ON SATELLITE ORIGINATING FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN A FEW SPOTS IS
NOT SIGNIFICANT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MOSTLY ABOVE 3 KFT BY LATE
MORNING DUE TO AMPLE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL HELP STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT ISOLD
SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP TODAY...INCLUDING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...COLUMN MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH PWAT HOVERING AROUND TWO INCHES. MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD...SUPPORTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF...WILL TEND TO STABILIZE WEATHER CONDITIONS HOWEVER...WITH A
SITUATION MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT A SEA BREEZE RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. NONETHELESS...A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP...WHICH
COULD BE OF CONCERN TO AREAS WHICH RECENTLY RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY SUCCEED IN DEVELOPING SOME SUBSIDENCE
AND INHIBITION IN THE SOUNDING...AND FEEL THAT TODAY MIGHT BE BETTER
FOR WESTWARD MVG SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAN TOMORROW...BUT ANOTHER
SEA BREEZE ROUND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ORIGINATING WITH
ODILE WILL STILL BE IN THE MIX. MID 70S WILL BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH
A FEW MORE LOW CLDS DUE TO WINDS BACKING A BIT TO A MORE SOUTHEAST
ONSHORE FLOW. LOOK FOR INCREASED LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAK
CAP BUT STILL PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. MAINTAINED MUCH OF THE INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE...BUT TRENDED POPS DOWN JUST A WEE BIT...10 PERCENT HERE AND
THERE...BASED ON MORE STABILITY AND A LESSER SOURCE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. USED A BLEND FOR TEMPS BUT BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE
FROM THE BLEND BASED ON TUESDAY`S PERFORMANCE AND CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME SUN AGAIN TODAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL RETAIN RICH COLUMN MOISTURE WITH
850-700MB RH VALUES OVER 70 PERCENT. NORTHWESTERLY 300-500MB FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THAT LAYER OVER WEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS WEAK
PERTURBATIONS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MODERATE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT 20 TO 30 PCT
POPS IN THE FORECAST IN THE MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO 40 PCT VALLEY
WIDE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 50 PCT OVER THE RANCHLANDS WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MID LEVEL ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ENHANCING
SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.0 TO 2.2
INCHES WILL POSITION ANY CELL THAT GETS GOING TO BE A VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCER...ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION AND COVERAGE SHOULD
PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FLOODING RISK...ASSUMING LIMITED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THE GFS DISRUPTS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST 850 TO 700MB
MOISTURE TAP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS ABOUT 10
TO 15 KNOT FLOW GOING. BOTH SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON WEAK WAVES
DEVELOPED BY CONVECTION OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN. THE ECMWF
APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE BASED ON HOW THESE SYSTEMS HAVE
BEHAVED THIS SEASON AND LEANED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
ECMWF...WHICH MATCHES WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST WELL. THIS CALLS
FOR LOW POPS IN THE MORNING PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AT 20 TO 30 PCT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LITTLE CHANGED. MID
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE
REMAIN IN MOIST 850-700MB SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW WITH NO
REAL DISCERNIBLE WAVES TO ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WENT WITH POP
PATTERN FAVORING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WORKING
INTO SEABREEZE INITIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH 30 PCT POPS IN THE FAVORED ZONES...BASICALLY VALLEY WIDE SUNDAY
AND IN A RAYMONDVILLE/HEBBRONVILLE/FALFURRIAS TRIANGLE ON MONDAY
SURROUNDED BY 20 PCT POPS. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT
PERSISTENT 500MB SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY AND ULTIMATELY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
BY MAKING NEW UPDRAFTS FIGHT A MORE HOSTILE AIRMASS.

TUESDAY THE ECMWF PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
RIDGING OVER THE DAKOTAS WHICH ULTIMATELY HELPS PUSH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS BRINGS A JET MAX INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM NEARLY DUE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WHICH BETTER AGREES WITH THE ONGOING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST CONUS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO LEAN IN A SLIGHT MAJORITY
TOWARDS THE MORE NORTHWESTWARD ORIENTED SPEED MAX WHICH LENDS
CREDIBILITY TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND
STRONGER WITH RIDGING THAT RESULTS IN THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
INTRODUCED 20/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE FRONT. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY HAS BEEN POOR OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS.

WEDNESDAY THE GFS SENDS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH A 300MB WEST TEXAS TROUGH WHILE THE GFS SHOWS AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH WHICH GENERATES A WEST TEXAS SFC CYCLONE
THAT RIDES OVER A STALLED FRONT IN THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. THE ECMWF HOLDS UP BETTER RUN TO RUN AND GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS
STRENGTH OF THE 00Z GFS TROUGH WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST JUST
HOLDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A SHIFT THOUGH
TOWARDS A FINAL GFS SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN
RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH WEST
GULF WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TWO TO FOUR FEET SEAS WILL PERSIST ON THE
GULF...WITH A LGT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE BAY. AN ISOLATED MARINE
SHOWER MAY DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68/CAMPBELL







000
FXUS64 KBRO 170834
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
334 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...COLUMN MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH PWAT HOVERING AROUND TWO INCHES. MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD...SUPPORTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF...WILL TEND TO STABILIZE WEATHER CONDITIONS HOWEVER...WITH A
SITUATION MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT A SEA BREEZE RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. NONETHELESS...A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP...WHICH
COULD BE OF CONCERN TO AREAS WHICH RECENTLY RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY SUCCEED IN DEVELOPING SOME SUBSIDENCE
AND INHIBITION IN THE SOUNDING...AND FEEL THAT TODAY MIGHT BE BETTER
FOR WESTWARD MVG SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAN TOMORROW...BUT ANOTHER
SEA BREEZE ROUND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ORIGINATING WITH
ODILE WILL STILL BE IN THE MIX. MID 70S WILL BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH
A FEW MORE LOW CLDS DUE TO WINDS BACKING A BIT TO A MORE SOUTHEAST
ONSHORE FLOW. LOOK FOR INCREASED LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAK
CAP BUT STILL PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. MAINTAINED MUCH OF THE INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE...BUT TRENDED POPS DOWN JUST A WEE BIT...10 PERCENT HERE AND
THERE...BASED ON MORE STABILITY AND A LESSER SOURCE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. USED A BLEND FOR TEMPS BUT BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE
FROM THE BLEND BASED ON TUESDAY`S PERFORMANCE AND CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME SUN AGAIN TODAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL RETAIN RICH COLUMN MOISTURE WITH
850-700MB RH VALUES OVER 70 PERCENT. NORTHWESTERLY 300-500MB FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THAT LAYER OVER WEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS WEAK
PERTURBATIONS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MODERATE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT 20 TO 30 PCT
POPS IN THE FORECAST IN THE MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO 40 PCT VALLEY
WIDE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 50 PCT OVER THE RANCHLANDS WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MID LEVEL ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ENHANCING
SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.0 TO 2.2
INCHES WILL POSITION ANY CELL THAT GETS GOING TO BE A VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCER...ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION AND COVERAGE SHOULD
PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FLOODING RISK...ASSUMING LIMITED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THE GFS DISRUPTS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST 850 TO 700MB
MOISTURE TAP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS ABOUT 10
TO 15 KNOT FLOW GOING. BOTH SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON WEAK WAVES
DEVELOPED BY CONVECTION OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN. THE ECMWF
APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE BASED ON HOW THESE SYSTEMS HAVE
BEHAVED THIS SEASON AND LEANED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
ECMWF...WHICH MATCHES WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST WELL. THIS CALLS
FOR LOW POPS IN THE MORNING PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AT 20 TO 30 PCT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LITTLE CHANGED. MID
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE
REMAIN IN MOIST 850-700MB SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW WITH NO
REAL DISCERNIBLE WAVES TO ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WENT WITH POP
PATTERN FAVORING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WORKING
INTO SEABREEZE INITIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH 30 PCT POPS IN THE FAVORED ZONES...BASICALLY VALLEY WIDE SUNDAY
AND IN A RAYMONDVILLE/HEBBRONVILLE/FALFURRIAS TRIANGLE ON MONDAY
SURROUNDED BY 20 PCT POPS. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT
PERSISTENT 500MB SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY AND ULTIMATELY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
BY MAKING NEW UPDRAFTS FIGHT A MORE HOSTILE AIRMASS.

TUESDAY THE ECMWF PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
RIDGING OVER THE DAKOTAS WHICH ULTIMATELY HELPS PUSH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS BRINGS A JET MAX INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM NEARLY DUE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WHICH BETTER AGREES WITH THE ONGOING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST CONUS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO LEAN IN A SLIGHT MAJORITY
TOWARDS THE MORE NORTHWESTWARD ORIENTED SPEED MAX WHICH LENDS
CREDIBILITY TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND
STRONGER WITH RIDGING THAT RESULTS IN THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
INTRODUCED 20/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE FRONT. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY HAS BEEN POOR OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS.

WEDNESDAY THE GFS SENDS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH A 300MB WEST TEXAS TROUGH WHILE THE GFS SHOWS AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH WHICH GENERATES A WEST TEXAS SFC CYCLONE
THAT RIDES OVER A STALLED FRONT IN THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. THE ECMWF HOLDS UP BETTER RUN TO RUN AND GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS
STRENGTH OF THE 00Z GFS TROUGH WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST JUST
HOLDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A SHIFT THOUGH
TOWARDS A FINAL GFS SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN
RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH WEST
GULF WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TWO TO FOUR FEET SEAS WILL PERSIST ON THE
GULF...WITH A LGT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE BAY. AN ISOLATED MARINE
SHOWER MAY DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  80  90  79 /  40  20  40  20
BROWNSVILLE          91  78  91  78 /  40  20  40  20
HARLINGEN            92  78  93  77 /  40  20  40  20
MCALLEN              94  78  94  78 /  30  20  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      94  77  95  78 /  30  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  81  87  80 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68







000
FXUS64 KBRO 170834
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
334 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...COLUMN MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH PWAT HOVERING AROUND TWO INCHES. MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD...SUPPORTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF...WILL TEND TO STABILIZE WEATHER CONDITIONS HOWEVER...WITH A
SITUATION MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT A SEA BREEZE RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. NONETHELESS...A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP...WHICH
COULD BE OF CONCERN TO AREAS WHICH RECENTLY RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY SUCCEED IN DEVELOPING SOME SUBSIDENCE
AND INHIBITION IN THE SOUNDING...AND FEEL THAT TODAY MIGHT BE BETTER
FOR WESTWARD MVG SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAN TOMORROW...BUT ANOTHER
SEA BREEZE ROUND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ORIGINATING WITH
ODILE WILL STILL BE IN THE MIX. MID 70S WILL BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH
A FEW MORE LOW CLDS DUE TO WINDS BACKING A BIT TO A MORE SOUTHEAST
ONSHORE FLOW. LOOK FOR INCREASED LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAK
CAP BUT STILL PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. MAINTAINED MUCH OF THE INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE...BUT TRENDED POPS DOWN JUST A WEE BIT...10 PERCENT HERE AND
THERE...BASED ON MORE STABILITY AND A LESSER SOURCE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. USED A BLEND FOR TEMPS BUT BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE
FROM THE BLEND BASED ON TUESDAY`S PERFORMANCE AND CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME SUN AGAIN TODAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL RETAIN RICH COLUMN MOISTURE WITH
850-700MB RH VALUES OVER 70 PERCENT. NORTHWESTERLY 300-500MB FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THAT LAYER OVER WEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS WEAK
PERTURBATIONS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MODERATE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT 20 TO 30 PCT
POPS IN THE FORECAST IN THE MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO 40 PCT VALLEY
WIDE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 50 PCT OVER THE RANCHLANDS WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MID LEVEL ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ENHANCING
SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.0 TO 2.2
INCHES WILL POSITION ANY CELL THAT GETS GOING TO BE A VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCER...ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION AND COVERAGE SHOULD
PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FLOODING RISK...ASSUMING LIMITED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THE GFS DISRUPTS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST 850 TO 700MB
MOISTURE TAP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS ABOUT 10
TO 15 KNOT FLOW GOING. BOTH SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON WEAK WAVES
DEVELOPED BY CONVECTION OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN. THE ECMWF
APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE BASED ON HOW THESE SYSTEMS HAVE
BEHAVED THIS SEASON AND LEANED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
ECMWF...WHICH MATCHES WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST WELL. THIS CALLS
FOR LOW POPS IN THE MORNING PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AT 20 TO 30 PCT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LITTLE CHANGED. MID
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE
REMAIN IN MOIST 850-700MB SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW WITH NO
REAL DISCERNIBLE WAVES TO ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WENT WITH POP
PATTERN FAVORING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WORKING
INTO SEABREEZE INITIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH 30 PCT POPS IN THE FAVORED ZONES...BASICALLY VALLEY WIDE SUNDAY
AND IN A RAYMONDVILLE/HEBBRONVILLE/FALFURRIAS TRIANGLE ON MONDAY
SURROUNDED BY 20 PCT POPS. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT
PERSISTENT 500MB SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY AND ULTIMATELY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
BY MAKING NEW UPDRAFTS FIGHT A MORE HOSTILE AIRMASS.

TUESDAY THE ECMWF PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
RIDGING OVER THE DAKOTAS WHICH ULTIMATELY HELPS PUSH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS BRINGS A JET MAX INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM NEARLY DUE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WHICH BETTER AGREES WITH THE ONGOING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST CONUS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO LEAN IN A SLIGHT MAJORITY
TOWARDS THE MORE NORTHWESTWARD ORIENTED SPEED MAX WHICH LENDS
CREDIBILITY TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND
STRONGER WITH RIDGING THAT RESULTS IN THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
INTRODUCED 20/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE FRONT. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY HAS BEEN POOR OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS.

WEDNESDAY THE GFS SENDS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH A 300MB WEST TEXAS TROUGH WHILE THE GFS SHOWS AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH WHICH GENERATES A WEST TEXAS SFC CYCLONE
THAT RIDES OVER A STALLED FRONT IN THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. THE ECMWF HOLDS UP BETTER RUN TO RUN AND GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS
STRENGTH OF THE 00Z GFS TROUGH WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST JUST
HOLDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A SHIFT THOUGH
TOWARDS A FINAL GFS SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN
RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH WEST
GULF WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TWO TO FOUR FEET SEAS WILL PERSIST ON THE
GULF...WITH A LGT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE BAY. AN ISOLATED MARINE
SHOWER MAY DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  80  90  79 /  40  20  40  20
BROWNSVILLE          91  78  91  78 /  40  20  40  20
HARLINGEN            92  78  93  77 /  40  20  40  20
MCALLEN              94  78  94  78 /  30  20  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      94  77  95  78 /  30  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  81  87  80 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68






000
FXUS64 KBRO 170527 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1227 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS. RADAR IS QUIET TONIGHT WITH
NOT MANY LOW CLOUDS AND JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ORIGINATING FROM
TS ODILE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH GROUND
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN PATCHY BUT NOT OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
FOG TOWARD DAWN. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS ABV 3 KFT BY LATE MORNING DUE
TO AMPLE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD
WILL HELP STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT ISOLD SHOWERS MAY STILL
DEVELOP TODAY...INCLUDING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...SINCE THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONV HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT CONVECTIVELY AROUND DEEP SOUTH TX. DESPITE THE
VERY SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER HIDALGO AND CAMERON
COUNTIES DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. ALTHOUGH THINGS
ARE QUIET RIGHT NOW...IF MORE ORGANIZED CONV FORMS UP AND THREATENS
CAMERON AND HIDALGO COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE REISSUED. WILL BACK OFF ON THE RAIN CHCS
A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TONIGHTS FORECAST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

AVIATION...THE AFTERNOON CONV IS DYING OFF GRADUALLY WITH THE
LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER INTERACTION BETWEEN SOME OLD
BOUNDARIES IS MAINTAINING SOME SPOTTY CONV OVER NORTHERN KENEDY
COUNTY AND JUST SOUTH OF HIDALGO COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CONTINUING A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT AND MAY LINGER ON FOR ONE TO TWO
HOURS. AS THE SURFACE ASSOCIATE WITH TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED IN
OVER SOUTH TX YESTERDAY AND TODAY EXPECT THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGER
CONV TO SHIFT STEADILY NORTHWARDS AWAY FROM THE RGV. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW IS LOSING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE RGV THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR
THE CONV THREAT TO LINGER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT WITH LIKELY
LESS COVERAGE. SO WILL INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF VCSH/TS AND PROB30
CONV GROUPS IN THE TAFS TOMORROW. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY VFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS THROUGHOUT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TX TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX WEDNESDAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
CWA WED MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THIS RAINFALL SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
FLOOD WATCH FOR INLAND CAMERON AND HIDALGO THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HIDALGO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE AREA WILL BE STUCK
BETWEEN THE WEAK RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE MAIN WEST TO EAST
FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...DOMINANT SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPS
THE EXPECTED SEPTEMBER GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE AREAWIDE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BE PLACED WELL ENOUGH TO
DEFLECT THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM HURRICANE ODILE...WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INSTEAD. LOCALLY...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY FOR THE LAND AREAS AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICTS. WITHOUT A DEFINITE
TRIGGER...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL REMAIN RAGGED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOWS IN THE WIDE RANGE OF MOS GUIDANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY /FROM 3 TO 43 PERCENT/. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL
STILL HAVE COPIOUS RAINFALL...AND WONT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE MORE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF 5
INCHES OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK ARE DIFFERING ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT DIVING INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS FRONT COULD REACH SOUTH TEXAS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOW 90S THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...IMPEDED BY DEEPER LLVL MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH SOUTH
WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED INLAND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A RESULT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN LONGER RANGE
MARINE FORECAST AS DOMINANT SE FLOW CONTINUES AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EACH DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME
DECREASES SEEN FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY HOVER 3 TO
4 FEET...BEING AGITATED BY CONTINUED LOCALIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68






000
FXUS64 KBRO 170527 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1227 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS. RADAR IS QUIET TONIGHT WITH
NOT MANY LOW CLOUDS AND JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ORIGINATING FROM
TS ODILE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH GROUND
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN PATCHY BUT NOT OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
FOG TOWARD DAWN. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS ABV 3 KFT BY LATE MORNING DUE
TO AMPLE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD
WILL HELP STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT ISOLD SHOWERS MAY STILL
DEVELOP TODAY...INCLUDING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...SINCE THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONV HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT CONVECTIVELY AROUND DEEP SOUTH TX. DESPITE THE
VERY SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER HIDALGO AND CAMERON
COUNTIES DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. ALTHOUGH THINGS
ARE QUIET RIGHT NOW...IF MORE ORGANIZED CONV FORMS UP AND THREATENS
CAMERON AND HIDALGO COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE REISSUED. WILL BACK OFF ON THE RAIN CHCS
A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TONIGHTS FORECAST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

AVIATION...THE AFTERNOON CONV IS DYING OFF GRADUALLY WITH THE
LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER INTERACTION BETWEEN SOME OLD
BOUNDARIES IS MAINTAINING SOME SPOTTY CONV OVER NORTHERN KENEDY
COUNTY AND JUST SOUTH OF HIDALGO COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CONTINUING A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT AND MAY LINGER ON FOR ONE TO TWO
HOURS. AS THE SURFACE ASSOCIATE WITH TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED IN
OVER SOUTH TX YESTERDAY AND TODAY EXPECT THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGER
CONV TO SHIFT STEADILY NORTHWARDS AWAY FROM THE RGV. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW IS LOSING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE RGV THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR
THE CONV THREAT TO LINGER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT WITH LIKELY
LESS COVERAGE. SO WILL INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF VCSH/TS AND PROB30
CONV GROUPS IN THE TAFS TOMORROW. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY VFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS THROUGHOUT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TX TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX WEDNESDAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
CWA WED MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THIS RAINFALL SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
FLOOD WATCH FOR INLAND CAMERON AND HIDALGO THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HIDALGO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE AREA WILL BE STUCK
BETWEEN THE WEAK RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE MAIN WEST TO EAST
FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...DOMINANT SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPS
THE EXPECTED SEPTEMBER GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE AREAWIDE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BE PLACED WELL ENOUGH TO
DEFLECT THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM HURRICANE ODILE...WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INSTEAD. LOCALLY...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY FOR THE LAND AREAS AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICTS. WITHOUT A DEFINITE
TRIGGER...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL REMAIN RAGGED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOWS IN THE WIDE RANGE OF MOS GUIDANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY /FROM 3 TO 43 PERCENT/. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL
STILL HAVE COPIOUS RAINFALL...AND WONT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE MORE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF 5
INCHES OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK ARE DIFFERING ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT DIVING INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS FRONT COULD REACH SOUTH TEXAS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOW 90S THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...IMPEDED BY DEEPER LLVL MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH SOUTH
WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED INLAND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A RESULT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN LONGER RANGE
MARINE FORECAST AS DOMINANT SE FLOW CONTINUES AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EACH DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME
DECREASES SEEN FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY HOVER 3 TO
4 FEET...BEING AGITATED BY CONTINUED LOCALIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68







000
FXUS64 KBRO 170125 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
825 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...SINCE THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONV HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT CONVECTIVELY AROUND DEEP SOUTH TX. DESPITE THE
VERY SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER HIDALGO AND CAMERON
COUNTIES DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. ALTHOUGH THINGS
ARE QUIET RIGHT NOW...IF MORE ORGANIZED CONV FORMS UP AND THREATENS
CAMERON AND HIDALGO COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE REISSUED. WILL BACK OFF ON THE RAIN CHCS
A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TONIGHTS FORECAST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&



.AVIATION...THE AFTERNOON CONV IS DYING OFF GRADUALLY WITH THE
LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER INTERACTION BETWEEN SOME OLD
BOUNDARIES IS MAINTAINING SOME SPOTTY CONV OVER NORTHERN KENEDY
COUNTY AND JUST SOUTH OF HIDALGO COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CONTINUING A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT AND MAY LINGER ON FOR ONE TO TWO
HOURS. AS THE SURFACE ASSOCIATE WITH TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED IN
OVER SOUTH TX YESTERDAY AND TODAY EXPECT THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGER
CONV TO SHIFT STEADILY NORTHWARDS AWAY FROM THE RGV. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW IS LOSING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE RGV THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR
THE CONV THREAT TO LINGER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT WITH LIKELY
LESS COVERAGE. SO WILL INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF VCSH/TS AND PROB30
CONV GROUPS IN THE TAFS TOMORROW. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY VFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS THROUGHOUT TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TX TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX WEDNESDAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
CWA WED MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THIS RAINFALL SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
FLOOD WATCH FOR INLAND CAMERON AND HIDALGO THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HIDALGO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE AREA WILL BE STUCK
BETWEEN THE WEAK RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE MAIN WEST TO EAST
FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...DOMINANT SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPS
THE EXPECTED SEPTEMBER GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE AREAWIDE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BE PLACED WELL ENOUGH TO
DEFLECT THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM HURRICANE ODILE...WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INSTEAD. LOCALLY...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY FOR THE LAND AREAS AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICTS. WITHOUT A DEFINITE
TRIGGER...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL REMAIN RAGGED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOWS IN THE WIDE RANGE OF MOS GUIDANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY /FROM 3 TO 43 PERCENT/. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL
STILL HAVE COPIOUS RAINFALL...AND WONT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE MORE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF 5
INCHES OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK ARE DIFFERING ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT DIVING INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS FRONT COULD REACH SOUTH TEXAS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOW 90S THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...IMPEDED BY DEEPER LLVL MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH SOUTH
WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED INLAND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A RESULT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN LONGER RANGE
MARINE FORECAST AS DOMINANT SE FLOW CONTINUES AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EACH DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME
DECREASES SEEN FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY HOVER 3 TO
4 FEET...BEING AGITATED BY CONTINUED LOCALIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 89 80 87 / 30 50 20 40
BROWNSVILLE         77 90 78 88 / 30 50 20 40
HARLINGEN           77 92 78 89 / 30 50 20 40
MCALLEN             77 93 78 91 / 30 40 20 30
RIO GRANDE CITY     76 94 77 92 / 30 40 20 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND  80 87 81 85 / 30 50 20 30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...67
GRAPHICAS/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 170125 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
825 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...SINCE THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONV HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT CONVECTIVELY AROUND DEEP SOUTH TX. DESPITE THE
VERY SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER HIDALGO AND CAMERON
COUNTIES DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. ALTHOUGH THINGS
ARE QUIET RIGHT NOW...IF MORE ORGANIZED CONV FORMS UP AND THREATENS
CAMERON AND HIDALGO COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE REISSUED. WILL BACK OFF ON THE RAIN CHCS
A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TONIGHTS FORECAST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&



.AVIATION...THE AFTERNOON CONV IS DYING OFF GRADUALLY WITH THE
LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER INTERACTION BETWEEN SOME OLD
BOUNDARIES IS MAINTAINING SOME SPOTTY CONV OVER NORTHERN KENEDY
COUNTY AND JUST SOUTH OF HIDALGO COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CONTINUING A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT AND MAY LINGER ON FOR ONE TO TWO
HOURS. AS THE SURFACE ASSOCIATE WITH TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED IN
OVER SOUTH TX YESTERDAY AND TODAY EXPECT THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGER
CONV TO SHIFT STEADILY NORTHWARDS AWAY FROM THE RGV. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW IS LOSING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE RGV THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR
THE CONV THREAT TO LINGER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT WITH LIKELY
LESS COVERAGE. SO WILL INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF VCSH/TS AND PROB30
CONV GROUPS IN THE TAFS TOMORROW. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY VFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS THROUGHOUT TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TX TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX WEDNESDAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
CWA WED MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THIS RAINFALL SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
FLOOD WATCH FOR INLAND CAMERON AND HIDALGO THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HIDALGO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE AREA WILL BE STUCK
BETWEEN THE WEAK RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE MAIN WEST TO EAST
FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...DOMINANT SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPS
THE EXPECTED SEPTEMBER GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE AREAWIDE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BE PLACED WELL ENOUGH TO
DEFLECT THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM HURRICANE ODILE...WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INSTEAD. LOCALLY...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY FOR THE LAND AREAS AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICTS. WITHOUT A DEFINITE
TRIGGER...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL REMAIN RAGGED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOWS IN THE WIDE RANGE OF MOS GUIDANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY /FROM 3 TO 43 PERCENT/. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL
STILL HAVE COPIOUS RAINFALL...AND WONT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE MORE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF 5
INCHES OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK ARE DIFFERING ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT DIVING INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS FRONT COULD REACH SOUTH TEXAS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOW 90S THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...IMPEDED BY DEEPER LLVL MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH SOUTH
WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED INLAND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A RESULT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN LONGER RANGE
MARINE FORECAST AS DOMINANT SE FLOW CONTINUES AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EACH DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME
DECREASES SEEN FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY HOVER 3 TO
4 FEET...BEING AGITATED BY CONTINUED LOCALIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 89 80 87 / 30 50 20 40
BROWNSVILLE         77 90 78 88 / 30 50 20 40
HARLINGEN           77 92 78 89 / 30 50 20 40
MCALLEN             77 93 78 91 / 30 40 20 30
RIO GRANDE CITY     76 94 77 92 / 30 40 20 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND  80 87 81 85 / 30 50 20 30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...67
GRAPHICAS/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 161944
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
244 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TX TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX WEDNESDAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
CWA WED MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THIS RAINFALL SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
FLOOD WATCH FOR INLAND CAMERON AND HIDALGO THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HIDALGO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE AREA WILL BE STUCK
BETWEEN THE WEAK RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE MAIN WEST TO EAST
FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...DOMINANT SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPS
THE EXPECTED SEPTEMBER GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE AREAWIDE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BE PLACED WELL ENOUGH TO
DEFLECT THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM HURRICANE ODILE...WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INSTEAD. LOCALLY...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY FOR THE LAND AREAS AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICTS. WITHOUT A DEFINITE
TRIGGER...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL REMAIN RAGGED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOWS IN THE WIDE RANGE OF MOS GUIDANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY /FROM 3 TO 43 PERCENT/. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL
STILL HAVE COPIOUS RAINFALL...AND WONT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE MORE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF 5
INCHES OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK ARE DIFFERING ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT DIVING INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS FRONT COULD REACH SOUTH TEXAS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOW 90S THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...IMPEDED BY DEEPER LLVL MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER.


&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH SOUTH
WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED INLAND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A RESULT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN LONGER RANGE
MARINE FORECAST AS DOMINANT SE FLOW CONTINUES AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EACH DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME
DECREASES SEEN FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY HOVER 3 TO
4 FEET...BEING AGITATED BY CONTINUED LOCALIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  89  80  87 /  40  50  20  40
BROWNSVILLE          77  90  78  88 /  40  50  20  40
HARLINGEN            77  92  78  89 /  40  50  20  40
MCALLEN              77  93  78  91 /  40  40  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  94  77  92 /  40  40  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  87  81  85 /  40  50  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ253-255.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

61/64






000
FXUS64 KBRO 161944
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
244 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TX TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX WEDNESDAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
CWA WED MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THIS RAINFALL SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
FLOOD WATCH FOR INLAND CAMERON AND HIDALGO THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HIDALGO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE AREA WILL BE STUCK
BETWEEN THE WEAK RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE MAIN WEST TO EAST
FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...DOMINANT SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPS
THE EXPECTED SEPTEMBER GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE AREAWIDE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BE PLACED WELL ENOUGH TO
DEFLECT THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM HURRICANE ODILE...WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INSTEAD. LOCALLY...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY FOR THE LAND AREAS AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICTS. WITHOUT A DEFINITE
TRIGGER...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL REMAIN RAGGED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOWS IN THE WIDE RANGE OF MOS GUIDANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY /FROM 3 TO 43 PERCENT/. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL
STILL HAVE COPIOUS RAINFALL...AND WONT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE MORE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF 5
INCHES OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK ARE DIFFERING ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT DIVING INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS FRONT COULD REACH SOUTH TEXAS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOW 90S THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...IMPEDED BY DEEPER LLVL MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER.


&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH SOUTH
WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED INLAND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A RESULT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN LONGER RANGE
MARINE FORECAST AS DOMINANT SE FLOW CONTINUES AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EACH DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME
DECREASES SEEN FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY HOVER 3 TO
4 FEET...BEING AGITATED BY CONTINUED LOCALIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  89  80  87 /  40  50  20  40
BROWNSVILLE          77  90  78  88 /  40  50  20  40
HARLINGEN            77  92  78  89 /  40  50  20  40
MCALLEN              77  93  78  91 /  40  40  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  94  77  92 /  40  40  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  87  81  85 /  40  50  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ253-255.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

61/64







000
FXUS64 KBRO 161749 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 2300FT AT KEBG TO NEAR
8500FT AT KMFE. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 6SM WITH HAZE AT KPIL.
EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ON SHORE IS OVER THE RANCHLANDS AND NEAR MFE. AS THE
WAVE MOVES FURTHER INLAND IT IS EXPECTED THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT BRO AND HRL. BEST WINDOW FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN IS LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM EAST TO WEST THIS EVENING WITH
PREVAILING VFR TONIGHT THROUGH END OF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR CELL MOVEMENT BELIEVE THAT APEX OF TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST
INLAND WITH SHOWERS OVER THE GULF MOVING NORTHERLY AND SHOWERS OVER
BROOKS COUNTY MOVING SOUTHWESTERLY. ITS FAIRLY MOIST OUT THERE AS WELL
WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING REVEALING A PWAT OF 2.58 INCHES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO DEPICTS 2.6 INCH PWAT IN THE COASTAL WATERS
UP TOWARDS CORPUS CHRISTI. 500 MB SHEAR LINE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SOME WEAK DIFFLUENCE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. AS OF THIS
WRITING...BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA /BROOKS AND KENEDY/ AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
TYPICAL STREAMER ACTIVITY INCREASING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY...WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SHOWERS GOING WITH AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE EXPECTED AS TIME GOES ON TODAY.

WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. PWATS WILL SLOWLY FALL ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE WAVE BUT NOT BY MUCH /2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING/. LIKELY
POPS LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY DESPITE MOST MOS POPS ARE WELL BELOW OUR
FORECAST. COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED ELEMENTS AND HIGH PWATS
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE TO STAY THE COURSE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND NOT ROLL BACK POPS. FOR TONIGHT BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE OUT WEST EARLY THEN BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE. ONE OR TWO SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT ONSHORE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY FROM EAST TO WEST
THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
.TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT /UNDER MOST IF NOT ALL
MOS GUIDANCE/. USED PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS AS A GUIDE AND HAVE MID TO
UPPER 80S EVERYWHERE...A LITTLE HIGHER OUT WEST WHERE SUN MAY BREAK
THROUGH CLOUD CANOPY. CLOUDS WONT BE AS ABUNDANT ON WEDNESDAY SO
EXPECT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER /AROUND 90 EAST TO MIDDLE 90S
WEST/.

CONCERNING AMOUNTS...GENERALLY SPEAKING ONE HALF INCH UPWARD TO ONE
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAISED
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT AS MOST MODELS DOWNPLAYING AMOUNTS BASED ON LOWER
POP CHANCES. BASED ON RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF HIDALGO AND CAMERON COUNTIES /WITH STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS
BEING CLOSED FROM TIME TO TIME AND SOIL MOISTURE MAXIMIZED LEADING
TO MOSTLY RUNOFF TODAY AND WITHIN URBAN AREAS/...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM.

LONG TERM...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS OVER COASTAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL FIND ITS WAY EAST TO CENTRAL AND
NORTH TEXAS UNDER ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGING...AND WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONT MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTH
GULF COAST. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLOW UPON REACHING THE
GULF...AND LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL EASE...BUT NOT END COMPLETELY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MOST OF IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE GULF FOR NOW. AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE GET PICKED UP BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK...MARITIME POLAR AIR WILL CHASE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROPELLING A FRONT INTO TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THAT
FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY...CREATING A
TRIFECTA OF SORTS BY BLENDING IN WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
EVENTUALLY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT THAT WILL BE JUST AFTER MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EDGING SLOWLY DOWN JUST A BIT...JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO...AS SEPTEMBER PROGRESSES...AND FCST VALUES WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
SUIT...BUT WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABV NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL
WEIGH IN AT PARTLY CLOUDY OR MORE MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH LIGHT TO
MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS DETERMINED PRIMARILY BY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHEN WINDS MORE TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A FRONT.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MID LEVEL LOW WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE...
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE
IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF...SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WEST GULF AND BY A BUILDING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER WEST. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST. THUS...THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION WILL DICTATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MARINE SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNSTABLE AND UNSETTLED...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND DISRUPTING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...AS WELL AS PROVIDING
SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A FEW MORE STABLE PERIODS WILL OCCUR FRI
AND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND...BUT THE TROPICAL SHOWER MACHINE DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE IT WILL COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN FOR NOW.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ253-255.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/64/MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 161749 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 2300FT AT KEBG TO NEAR
8500FT AT KMFE. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 6SM WITH HAZE AT KPIL.
EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ON SHORE IS OVER THE RANCHLANDS AND NEAR MFE. AS THE
WAVE MOVES FURTHER INLAND IT IS EXPECTED THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT BRO AND HRL. BEST WINDOW FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN IS LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM EAST TO WEST THIS EVENING WITH
PREVAILING VFR TONIGHT THROUGH END OF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR CELL MOVEMENT BELIEVE THAT APEX OF TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST
INLAND WITH SHOWERS OVER THE GULF MOVING NORTHERLY AND SHOWERS OVER
BROOKS COUNTY MOVING SOUTHWESTERLY. ITS FAIRLY MOIST OUT THERE AS WELL
WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING REVEALING A PWAT OF 2.58 INCHES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO DEPICTS 2.6 INCH PWAT IN THE COASTAL WATERS
UP TOWARDS CORPUS CHRISTI. 500 MB SHEAR LINE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SOME WEAK DIFFLUENCE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. AS OF THIS
WRITING...BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA /BROOKS AND KENEDY/ AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
TYPICAL STREAMER ACTIVITY INCREASING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY...WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SHOWERS GOING WITH AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE EXPECTED AS TIME GOES ON TODAY.

WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. PWATS WILL SLOWLY FALL ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE WAVE BUT NOT BY MUCH /2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING/. LIKELY
POPS LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY DESPITE MOST MOS POPS ARE WELL BELOW OUR
FORECAST. COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED ELEMENTS AND HIGH PWATS
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE TO STAY THE COURSE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND NOT ROLL BACK POPS. FOR TONIGHT BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE OUT WEST EARLY THEN BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE. ONE OR TWO SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT ONSHORE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY FROM EAST TO WEST
THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
.TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT /UNDER MOST IF NOT ALL
MOS GUIDANCE/. USED PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS AS A GUIDE AND HAVE MID TO
UPPER 80S EVERYWHERE...A LITTLE HIGHER OUT WEST WHERE SUN MAY BREAK
THROUGH CLOUD CANOPY. CLOUDS WONT BE AS ABUNDANT ON WEDNESDAY SO
EXPECT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER /AROUND 90 EAST TO MIDDLE 90S
WEST/.

CONCERNING AMOUNTS...GENERALLY SPEAKING ONE HALF INCH UPWARD TO ONE
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAISED
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT AS MOST MODELS DOWNPLAYING AMOUNTS BASED ON LOWER
POP CHANCES. BASED ON RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF HIDALGO AND CAMERON COUNTIES /WITH STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS
BEING CLOSED FROM TIME TO TIME AND SOIL MOISTURE MAXIMIZED LEADING
TO MOSTLY RUNOFF TODAY AND WITHIN URBAN AREAS/...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM.

LONG TERM...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS OVER COASTAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL FIND ITS WAY EAST TO CENTRAL AND
NORTH TEXAS UNDER ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGING...AND WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONT MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTH
GULF COAST. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLOW UPON REACHING THE
GULF...AND LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL EASE...BUT NOT END COMPLETELY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MOST OF IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE GULF FOR NOW. AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE GET PICKED UP BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK...MARITIME POLAR AIR WILL CHASE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROPELLING A FRONT INTO TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THAT
FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY...CREATING A
TRIFECTA OF SORTS BY BLENDING IN WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
EVENTUALLY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT THAT WILL BE JUST AFTER MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EDGING SLOWLY DOWN JUST A BIT...JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO...AS SEPTEMBER PROGRESSES...AND FCST VALUES WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
SUIT...BUT WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABV NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL
WEIGH IN AT PARTLY CLOUDY OR MORE MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH LIGHT TO
MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS DETERMINED PRIMARILY BY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHEN WINDS MORE TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A FRONT.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MID LEVEL LOW WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE...
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE
IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF...SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WEST GULF AND BY A BUILDING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER WEST. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST. THUS...THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION WILL DICTATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MARINE SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNSTABLE AND UNSETTLED...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND DISRUPTING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...AS WELL AS PROVIDING
SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A FEW MORE STABLE PERIODS WILL OCCUR FRI
AND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND...BUT THE TROPICAL SHOWER MACHINE DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE IT WILL COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN FOR NOW.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ253-255.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/64/MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 161136
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
636 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ON SHORE IS OVER THE RANCHLANDS AND NEAR MFE. AS THE
WAVE MOVES FURTHER INLAND IT IS EXPECTED THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT BRO AND HRL. BEST WINDOW FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN IS LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM EAST TO WEST THIS EVENING WITH
PREVAILING VFR TONIGHT THROUGH END OF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR CELL MOVEMENT BELIEVE THAT APEX OF TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST
INLAND WITH SHOWERS OVER THE GULF MOVING NORTHERLY AND SHOWERS OVER
BROOKS COUNTY MOVING SOUTHWESTERLY. ITS FAIRLY MOIST OUT THERE AS WELL
WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING REVEALING A PWAT OF 2.58 INCHES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO DEPICTS 2.6 INCH PWAT IN THE COASTAL WATERS
UP TOWARDS CORPUS CHRISTI. 500 MB SHEAR LINE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SOME WEAK DIFFLUENCE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. AS OF THIS
WRITING...BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA /BROOKS AND KENEDY/ AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
TYPICAL STREAMER ACTIVITY INCREASING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY...WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SHOWERS GOING WITH AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE EXPECTED AS TIME GOES ON TODAY.

WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. PWATS WILL SLOWLY FALL ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE WAVE BUT NOT BY MUCH /2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING/. LIKELY
POPS LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY DESPITE MOST MOS POPS ARE WELL BELOW OUR
FORECAST. COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED ELEMENTS AND HIGH PWATS
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE TO STAY THE COURSE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND NOT ROLL BACK POPS. FOR TONIGHT BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE OUT WEST EARLY THEN BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE. ONE OR TWO SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT ONSHORE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY FROM EAST TO WEST
THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
..TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT /UNDER MOST IF NOT ALL
MOS GUIDANCE/. USED PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS AS A GUIDE AND HAVE MID TO
UPPER 80S EVERYWHERE...A LITTLE HIGHER OUT WEST WHERE SUN MAY BREAK
THROUGH CLOUD CANOPY. CLOUDS WONT BE AS ABUNDANT ON WEDNESDAY SO
EXPECT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER /AROUND 90 EAST TO MIDDLE 90S
WEST/.

CONCERNING AMOUNTS...GENERALLY SPEAKING ONE HALF INCH UPWARD TO ONE
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAISED
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT AS MOST MODELS DOWNPLAYING AMOUNTS BASED ON LOWER
POP CHANCES. BASED ON RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF HIDALGO AND CAMERON COUNTIES /WITH STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS
BEING CLOSED FROM TIME TO TIME AND SOIL MOISTURE MAXIMIZED LEADING
TO MOSTLY RUNOFF TODAY AND WITHIN URBAN AREAS/...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM.

LONG TERM...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS OVER COASTAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL FIND ITS WAY EAST TO CENTRAL AND
NORTH TEXAS UNDER ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGING...AND WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONT MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTH
GULF COAST. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLOW UPON REACHING THE
GULF...AND LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL EASE...BUT NOT END COMPLETELY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MOST OF IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE GULF FOR NOW. AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE GET PICKED UP BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK...MARITIME POLAR AIR WILL CHASE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROPELLING A FRONT INTO TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THAT
FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY...CREATING A
TRIFECTA OF SORTS BY BLENDING IN WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
EVENTUALLY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT THAT WILL BE JUST AFTER MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EDGING SLOWLY DOWN JUST A BIT...JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO...AS SEPTEMBER PROGRESSES...AND FCST VALUES WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
SUIT...BUT WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABV NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL
WEIGH IN AT PARTLY CLOUDY OR MORE MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH LIGHT TO
MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS DETERMINED PRIMARILY BY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHEN WINDS MORE TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A FRONT.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MID LEVEL LOW WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE...
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE
IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF...SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WEST GULF AND BY A BUILDING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER WEST. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST. THUS...THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION WILL DICTATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MARINE SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNSTABLE AND UNSETTLED...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND DISRUPTING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...AS WELL AS PROVIDING
SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A FEW MORE STABLE PERIODS WILL OCCUR FRI
AND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND...BUT THE TROPICAL SHOWER MACHINE DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE IT WILL COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN FOR NOW.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ253-255.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55






000
FXUS64 KBRO 161136
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
636 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ON SHORE IS OVER THE RANCHLANDS AND NEAR MFE. AS THE
WAVE MOVES FURTHER INLAND IT IS EXPECTED THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT BRO AND HRL. BEST WINDOW FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN IS LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM EAST TO WEST THIS EVENING WITH
PREVAILING VFR TONIGHT THROUGH END OF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR CELL MOVEMENT BELIEVE THAT APEX OF TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST
INLAND WITH SHOWERS OVER THE GULF MOVING NORTHERLY AND SHOWERS OVER
BROOKS COUNTY MOVING SOUTHWESTERLY. ITS FAIRLY MOIST OUT THERE AS WELL
WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING REVEALING A PWAT OF 2.58 INCHES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO DEPICTS 2.6 INCH PWAT IN THE COASTAL WATERS
UP TOWARDS CORPUS CHRISTI. 500 MB SHEAR LINE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SOME WEAK DIFFLUENCE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. AS OF THIS
WRITING...BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA /BROOKS AND KENEDY/ AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
TYPICAL STREAMER ACTIVITY INCREASING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY...WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SHOWERS GOING WITH AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE EXPECTED AS TIME GOES ON TODAY.

WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. PWATS WILL SLOWLY FALL ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE WAVE BUT NOT BY MUCH /2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING/. LIKELY
POPS LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY DESPITE MOST MOS POPS ARE WELL BELOW OUR
FORECAST. COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED ELEMENTS AND HIGH PWATS
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE TO STAY THE COURSE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND NOT ROLL BACK POPS. FOR TONIGHT BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE OUT WEST EARLY THEN BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE. ONE OR TWO SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT ONSHORE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY FROM EAST TO WEST
THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
..TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT /UNDER MOST IF NOT ALL
MOS GUIDANCE/. USED PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS AS A GUIDE AND HAVE MID TO
UPPER 80S EVERYWHERE...A LITTLE HIGHER OUT WEST WHERE SUN MAY BREAK
THROUGH CLOUD CANOPY. CLOUDS WONT BE AS ABUNDANT ON WEDNESDAY SO
EXPECT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER /AROUND 90 EAST TO MIDDLE 90S
WEST/.

CONCERNING AMOUNTS...GENERALLY SPEAKING ONE HALF INCH UPWARD TO ONE
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAISED
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT AS MOST MODELS DOWNPLAYING AMOUNTS BASED ON LOWER
POP CHANCES. BASED ON RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF HIDALGO AND CAMERON COUNTIES /WITH STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS
BEING CLOSED FROM TIME TO TIME AND SOIL MOISTURE MAXIMIZED LEADING
TO MOSTLY RUNOFF TODAY AND WITHIN URBAN AREAS/...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM.

LONG TERM...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS OVER COASTAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL FIND ITS WAY EAST TO CENTRAL AND
NORTH TEXAS UNDER ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGING...AND WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONT MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTH
GULF COAST. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLOW UPON REACHING THE
GULF...AND LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL EASE...BUT NOT END COMPLETELY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MOST OF IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE GULF FOR NOW. AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE GET PICKED UP BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK...MARITIME POLAR AIR WILL CHASE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROPELLING A FRONT INTO TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THAT
FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY...CREATING A
TRIFECTA OF SORTS BY BLENDING IN WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
EVENTUALLY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT THAT WILL BE JUST AFTER MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EDGING SLOWLY DOWN JUST A BIT...JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO...AS SEPTEMBER PROGRESSES...AND FCST VALUES WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
SUIT...BUT WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABV NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL
WEIGH IN AT PARTLY CLOUDY OR MORE MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH LIGHT TO
MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS DETERMINED PRIMARILY BY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHEN WINDS MORE TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A FRONT.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MID LEVEL LOW WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE...
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE
IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF...SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WEST GULF AND BY A BUILDING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER WEST. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST. THUS...THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION WILL DICTATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MARINE SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNSTABLE AND UNSETTLED...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND DISRUPTING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...AS WELL AS PROVIDING
SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A FEW MORE STABLE PERIODS WILL OCCUR FRI
AND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND...BUT THE TROPICAL SHOWER MACHINE DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE IT WILL COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN FOR NOW.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ253-255.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55







000
FXUS64 KBRO 160922
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
422 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR CELL MOVEMENT BELIEVE THAT APEX OF TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST
INLAND WITH SHOWERS OVER THE GULF MOVING NORTHERLY AND SHOWERS OVER
BROOKS COUNTY MOVING SOUTHWESTERLY. ITS FAIRLY MOIST OUT THERE AS WELL
WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING REVEALING A PWAT OF 2.58 INCHES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO DEPICTS 2.6 INCH PWAT IN THE COASTAL WATERS
UP TOWARDS CORPUS CHRISTI. 500 MB SHEAR LINE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SOME WEAK DIFFLUENCE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. AS OF THIS
WRITING...BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA /BROOKS AND KENEDY/ AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
TYPICAL STREAMER ACTIVITY INCREASING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY...WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SHOWERS GOING WITH AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE EXPECTED AS TIME GOES ON TODAY.

WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. PWATS WILL SLOWLY FALL ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE WAVE BUT NOT BY MUCH /2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING/. LIKELY
POPS LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY DESPITE MOST MOS POPS ARE WELL BELOW OUR
FORECAST. COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED ELEMENTS AND HIGH PWATS
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE TO STAY THE COURSE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND NOT ROLL BACK POPS. FOR TONIGHT BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE OUT WEST EARLY THEN BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE. ONE OR TWO SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT ONSHORE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY FROM EAST TO WEST
THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT /UNDER MOST IF NOT ALL
MOS GUIDANCE/. USED PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS AS A GUIDE AND HAVE MID TO
UPPER 80S EVERYWHERE...A LITTLE HIGHER OUT WEST WHERE SUN MAY BREAK
THROUGH CLOUD CANOPY. CLOUDS WONT BE AS ABUNDANT ON WEDNESDAY SO
EXPECT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER /AROUND 90 EAST TO MIDDLE 90S
WEST/.

CONCERNING AMOUNTS...GENERALLY SPEAKING ONE HALF INCH UPWARD TO ONE
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAISED
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT AS MOST MODELS DOWNPLAYING AMOUNTS BASED ON LOWER
POP CHANCES. BASED ON RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF HIDALGO AND CAMERON COUNTIES /WITH STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS
BEING CLOSED FROM TIME TO TIME AND SOIL MOISTURE MAXIMIZED LEADING
TO MOSTLY RUNOFF TODAY AND WITHIN URBAN AREAS/...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM.

.LONG TERM...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS OVER COASTAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL FIND ITS WAY EAST TO CENTRAL AND
NORTH TEXAS UNDER ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGING...AND WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONT MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTH
GULF COAST. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLOW UPON REACHING THE
GULF...AND LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL EASE...BUT NOT END COMPLETELY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MOST OF IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE GULF FOR NOW. AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE GET PICKED UP BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK...MARITIME POLAR AIR WILL CHASE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROPELLING A FRONT INTO TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THAT
FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY...CREATING A
TRIFECTA OF SORTS BY BLENDING IN WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
EVENTUALLY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT THAT WILL BE JUST AFTER MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EDGING SLOWLY DOWN JUST A BIT...JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO...AS SEPTEMBER PROGRESSES...AND FCST VALUES WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
SUIT...BUT WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABV NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL
WEIGH IN AT PARTLY CLOUDY OR MORE MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH LIGHT TO
MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS DETERMINED PRIMARILY BY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHEN WINDS MORE TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MID LEVEL LOW WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE...
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE
IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF...SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WEST GULF AND BY A BUILDING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER WEST. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST. THUS...THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION WILL DICTATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MARINE SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNSTABLE AND UNSETTLED...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND DISRUPTING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...AS WELL AS PROVIDING
SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A FEW MORE STABLE PERIODS WILL OCCUR FRI
AND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND...BUT THE TROPICAL SHOWER MACHINE DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE IT WILL COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  85  78  89  79 /  70  40  40  20
BROWNSVILLE          86  77  90  78 /  70  40  40  20
HARLINGEN            87  76  91  78 /  70  30  40  20
MCALLEN              87  77  92  78 /  70  30  40  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      86  76  94  77 /  60  40  40  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  79  87  80 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ253-255.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/54/CAMPBELL







000
FXUS64 KBRO 160922
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
422 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR CELL MOVEMENT BELIEVE THAT APEX OF TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST
INLAND WITH SHOWERS OVER THE GULF MOVING NORTHERLY AND SHOWERS OVER
BROOKS COUNTY MOVING SOUTHWESTERLY. ITS FAIRLY MOIST OUT THERE AS WELL
WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING REVEALING A PWAT OF 2.58 INCHES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO DEPICTS 2.6 INCH PWAT IN THE COASTAL WATERS
UP TOWARDS CORPUS CHRISTI. 500 MB SHEAR LINE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SOME WEAK DIFFLUENCE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. AS OF THIS
WRITING...BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA /BROOKS AND KENEDY/ AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
TYPICAL STREAMER ACTIVITY INCREASING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY...WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SHOWERS GOING WITH AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE EXPECTED AS TIME GOES ON TODAY.

WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. PWATS WILL SLOWLY FALL ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE WAVE BUT NOT BY MUCH /2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING/. LIKELY
POPS LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY DESPITE MOST MOS POPS ARE WELL BELOW OUR
FORECAST. COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED ELEMENTS AND HIGH PWATS
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE TO STAY THE COURSE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND NOT ROLL BACK POPS. FOR TONIGHT BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE OUT WEST EARLY THEN BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE. ONE OR TWO SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT ONSHORE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY FROM EAST TO WEST
THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT /UNDER MOST IF NOT ALL
MOS GUIDANCE/. USED PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS AS A GUIDE AND HAVE MID TO
UPPER 80S EVERYWHERE...A LITTLE HIGHER OUT WEST WHERE SUN MAY BREAK
THROUGH CLOUD CANOPY. CLOUDS WONT BE AS ABUNDANT ON WEDNESDAY SO
EXPECT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER /AROUND 90 EAST TO MIDDLE 90S
WEST/.

CONCERNING AMOUNTS...GENERALLY SPEAKING ONE HALF INCH UPWARD TO ONE
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAISED
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT AS MOST MODELS DOWNPLAYING AMOUNTS BASED ON LOWER
POP CHANCES. BASED ON RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF HIDALGO AND CAMERON COUNTIES /WITH STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS
BEING CLOSED FROM TIME TO TIME AND SOIL MOISTURE MAXIMIZED LEADING
TO MOSTLY RUNOFF TODAY AND WITHIN URBAN AREAS/...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM.

.LONG TERM...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS OVER COASTAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL FIND ITS WAY EAST TO CENTRAL AND
NORTH TEXAS UNDER ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGING...AND WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONT MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTH
GULF COAST. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLOW UPON REACHING THE
GULF...AND LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL EASE...BUT NOT END COMPLETELY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MOST OF IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE GULF FOR NOW. AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE GET PICKED UP BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK...MARITIME POLAR AIR WILL CHASE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROPELLING A FRONT INTO TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THAT
FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY...CREATING A
TRIFECTA OF SORTS BY BLENDING IN WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
EVENTUALLY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT THAT WILL BE JUST AFTER MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EDGING SLOWLY DOWN JUST A BIT...JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO...AS SEPTEMBER PROGRESSES...AND FCST VALUES WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
SUIT...BUT WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABV NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL
WEIGH IN AT PARTLY CLOUDY OR MORE MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH LIGHT TO
MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS DETERMINED PRIMARILY BY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHEN WINDS MORE TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MID LEVEL LOW WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE...
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE
IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF...SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WEST GULF AND BY A BUILDING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER WEST. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST. THUS...THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION WILL DICTATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MARINE SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNSTABLE AND UNSETTLED...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND DISRUPTING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...AS WELL AS PROVIDING
SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A FEW MORE STABLE PERIODS WILL OCCUR FRI
AND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND...BUT THE TROPICAL SHOWER MACHINE DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE IT WILL COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  85  78  89  79 /  70  40  40  20
BROWNSVILLE          86  77  90  78 /  70  40  40  20
HARLINGEN            87  76  91  78 /  70  30  40  20
MCALLEN              87  77  92  78 /  70  30  40  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      86  76  94  77 /  60  40  40  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  79  87  80 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ253-255.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/54/CAMPBELL






000
FXUS64 KBRO 160542
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1242 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE THIS PERIOD WITH SHRA
DEVELOPING NOW ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
RUNS SHOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO MID DAY TUESDAY.
PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITIES A CONCERN AS WELL AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED
TO NEAR CALM THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SOIL MOISTURE IS HIGH FROM
RECENT RAINS. TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ASHORE THIS MORNING PROVIDING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO AID IN DEVELOPING TSRA BY MID DAY...SOME
WITH HEAVY RAINS AND MVFR/IFR CONDS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE NORTH INITIALLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE WAVE PUSHES WESTWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER CAMERON COUNTY HAS DISSIPATED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO WITH SOME PATCHY CONV LINGERING
OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE RGV WITH A PWAT OF AROUND 2.6
INCHES. WEAK SURFACE TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX WILL
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY WEST AND NORTH WHICH WILL USHER THROUGH
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF CONV ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE
THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS WILL MAKE THE TAFS
PROBLEMATIC OVER THE LOWER RGV FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD. SINCE THE
CONV HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HOUR WILL LIKELY GO CLOSE TO
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WITH PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS
REDUCING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO IFR
LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER AREAS OF CONVECTION.
WILL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC ON THE TAF WORDING CLOSE TO THE BRO AREA
WITH A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC TAF TRENDS FOR THE HRL AND MFE
AIRPORTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...COMBINATION OF H5 INVERTED
TROUGH AND BROAD SFC LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL ARRIVE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ATMOSPHERE STILL PRIMED FOR HEAVY
RAIN WITH MOST ATMOSPHERE SFC TO H3 /PW OF 2.38/...SO ANY RAIN FALL
THAT DOES OCCUR WILL DROP HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
PEAK OF RAINFALL LIKELY TO BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS THE AXES OF
THE TROUGHS WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST...AND WILL BE AIDED BY A BIT OF
DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES
RISES TOMORROW...THOUGH...SO HEATING WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
INGREDIENT IN THE OVERALL PRECIP FORECAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY...STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 80S WHERE THERE
IS CLOUD COVER. AREAS OUT WEST MAY SEE SOME DAYTIME SUN EARLY BEFORE
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES IN FRO THE EAST. RESIDUAL ACTIVITY
DRIFTS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE STREAMER
ACTIVITY REPOPULATES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND MAKES ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE ASHORE. STABLE LAND MASS REGIME WILL KEEP GULF SHOWERS FROM
REACHING BEYOND ABOUT 30 MILES INLAND.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY WITH A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TX. A
500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WEST COAST THURSDAY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EXTENDING INTO NORTH TX WILL
PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TX SUNDAY AND INTO SOUTH TX
MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MIDLEVEL LOW WILL
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 3 TO 4
FEET...GENERALLY WIND WAVE DRIVEN FROM  LOCAL SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55







000
FXUS64 KBRO 160118 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
818 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER CAMERON COUNTY HAS DISSIPATED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO WITH SOME PATCHY CONV LINGERING
OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE RGV WITH A PWAT OF AROUND 2.6
INCHES. WEAK SURFACE TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX WILL
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY WEST AND NORTH WHICH WILL USHER THROUGH
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF CONV ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE
THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS WILL MAKE THE TAFS
PROBLEMATIC OVER THE LOWER RGV FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD. SINCE THE
CONV HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HOUR WILL LIKELY GO CLOSE TO
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WITH PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS
REDUCING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO IFR
LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER AREAS OF CONVECTION.
WILL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC ON THE TAF WORDING CLOSE TO THE BRO AREA
WITH A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC TAF TRENDS FOR THE HRL AND MFE
AIRPORTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...COMBINATION OF H5 INVERTED
TROUGH AND BROAD SFC LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL ARRIVE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ATMOSPHERE STILL PRIMED FOR HEAVY
RAIN WITH MOST ATMOSPHERE SFC TO H3 /PW OF 2.38/...SO ANY RAIN FALL
THAT DOES OCCUR WILL DROP HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
PEAK OF RAINFALL LIKELY TO BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS THE AXES OF
THE TROUGHS WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST...AND WILL BE AIDED BY A BIT OF
DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES
RISES TOMORROW...THOUGH...SO HEATING WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
INGREDIENT IN THE OVERALL PRECIP FORECAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY...STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 80S WHERE THERE
IS CLOUD COVER. AREAS OUT WEST MAY SEE SOME DAYTIME SUN EARLY BEFORE
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES IN FRO THE EAST. RESIDUAL ACTIVITY
DRIFTS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE STREAMER
ACTIVITY REPOPULATES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND MAKES ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE ASHORE. STABLE LAND MASS REGIME WILL KEEP GULF SHOWERS FROM
REACHING BEYOND ABOUT 30 MILES INLAND.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY WITH A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TX. A
500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WEST COAST THURSDAY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EXTENDING INTO NORTH TX WILL
PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TX SUNDAY AND INTO SOUTH TX
MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MIDLEVEL LOW WILL
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 3 TO 4
FEET...GENERALLY WIND WAVE DRIVEN FROM  LOCAL SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  75  85  78 /  50  50  70  40
BROWNSVILLE          86  74  86  75 /  50  50  70  40
HARLINGEN            86  72  86  74 /  50  50  70  40
MCALLEN              87  75  87  75 /  40  30  70  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      90  73  86  74 /  30  20  60  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   86  76  85  78 /  50  50  70  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...67








000
FXUS64 KBRO 160118 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
818 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER CAMERON COUNTY HAS DISSIPATED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO WITH SOME PATCHY CONV LINGERING
OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE RGV WITH A PWAT OF AROUND 2.6
INCHES. WEAK SURFACE TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX WILL
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY WEST AND NORTH WHICH WILL USHER THROUGH
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF CONV ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE
THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS WILL MAKE THE TAFS
PROBLEMATIC OVER THE LOWER RGV FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD. SINCE THE
CONV HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HOUR WILL LIKELY GO CLOSE TO
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WITH PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS
REDUCING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO IFR
LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER AREAS OF CONVECTION.
WILL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC ON THE TAF WORDING CLOSE TO THE BRO AREA
WITH A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC TAF TRENDS FOR THE HRL AND MFE
AIRPORTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...COMBINATION OF H5 INVERTED
TROUGH AND BROAD SFC LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL ARRIVE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ATMOSPHERE STILL PRIMED FOR HEAVY
RAIN WITH MOST ATMOSPHERE SFC TO H3 /PW OF 2.38/...SO ANY RAIN FALL
THAT DOES OCCUR WILL DROP HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
PEAK OF RAINFALL LIKELY TO BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS THE AXES OF
THE TROUGHS WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST...AND WILL BE AIDED BY A BIT OF
DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES
RISES TOMORROW...THOUGH...SO HEATING WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
INGREDIENT IN THE OVERALL PRECIP FORECAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY...STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 80S WHERE THERE
IS CLOUD COVER. AREAS OUT WEST MAY SEE SOME DAYTIME SUN EARLY BEFORE
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES IN FRO THE EAST. RESIDUAL ACTIVITY
DRIFTS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE STREAMER
ACTIVITY REPOPULATES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND MAKES ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE ASHORE. STABLE LAND MASS REGIME WILL KEEP GULF SHOWERS FROM
REACHING BEYOND ABOUT 30 MILES INLAND.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY WITH A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TX. A
500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WEST COAST THURSDAY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EXTENDING INTO NORTH TX WILL
PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TX SUNDAY AND INTO SOUTH TX
MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MIDLEVEL LOW WILL
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 3 TO 4
FEET...GENERALLY WIND WAVE DRIVEN FROM  LOCAL SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  75  85  78 /  50  50  70  40
BROWNSVILLE          86  74  86  75 /  50  50  70  40
HARLINGEN            86  72  86  74 /  50  50  70  40
MCALLEN              87  75  87  75 /  40  30  70  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      90  73  86  74 /  30  20  60  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   86  76  85  78 /  50  50  70  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...67







000
FXUS64 KBRO 152000
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
300 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...COMBINATION OF H5 INVERTED
TROUGH AND BROAD SFC LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL ARRIVE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ATMOSPHERE STILL PRIMED FOR HEAVY
RAIN WITH MOST ATMOSPHERE SFC TO H3 /PW OF 2.38/...SO ANY RAIN FALL
THAT DOES OCCUR WILL DROP HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
PEAK OF RAINFALL LIKELY TO BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS THE AXES OF
THE TROUGHS WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST...AND WILL BE AIDED BY A BIT OF
DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES
RISES TOMORROW...THOUGH...SO HEATING WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
INGREDIENT IN THE OVERALL PRECIP FORECAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY...STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 80S WHERE THERE
IS CLOUD COVER. AREAS OUT WEST MAY SEE SOME DAYTIME SUN EARLY BEFORE
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES IN FRO THE EAST. RESIDUAL ACTIVITY
DRIFTS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE STREAMER
ACTIVITY REPOPULATES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND MAKES ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE ASHORE. STABLE LAND MASS REGIME WILL KEEP GULF SHOWERS FROM
REACHING BEYOND ABOUT 30 MILES INLAND.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY WITH A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TX. A
500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WEST COAST THURSDAY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EXTENDING INTO NORTH TX WILL
PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TX SUNDAY AND INTO SOUTH TX
MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MIDLEVEL LOW WILL
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 3 TO 4
FEET...GENERALLY WIND WAVE DRIVEN FROM  LOCAL SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  75  85  78  89 /  50  70  40  40
BROWNSVILLE          74  86  75  90 /  50  70  40  40
HARLINGEN            72  86  74  91 /  50  70  40  40
MCALLEN              75  87  75  92 /  30  70  40  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      73  86  74  94 /  20  60  40  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  85  78  87 /  50  70  40  40
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/61/MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 152000
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
300 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...COMBINATION OF H5 INVERTED
TROUGH AND BROAD SFC LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL ARRIVE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ATMOSPHERE STILL PRIMED FOR HEAVY
RAIN WITH MOST ATMOSPHERE SFC TO H3 /PW OF 2.38/...SO ANY RAIN FALL
THAT DOES OCCUR WILL DROP HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
PEAK OF RAINFALL LIKELY TO BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS THE AXES OF
THE TROUGHS WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST...AND WILL BE AIDED BY A BIT OF
DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES
RISES TOMORROW...THOUGH...SO HEATING WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
INGREDIENT IN THE OVERALL PRECIP FORECAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY...STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 80S WHERE THERE
IS CLOUD COVER. AREAS OUT WEST MAY SEE SOME DAYTIME SUN EARLY BEFORE
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES IN FRO THE EAST. RESIDUAL ACTIVITY
DRIFTS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE STREAMER
ACTIVITY REPOPULATES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND MAKES ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE ASHORE. STABLE LAND MASS REGIME WILL KEEP GULF SHOWERS FROM
REACHING BEYOND ABOUT 30 MILES INLAND.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY WITH A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TX. A
500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WEST COAST THURSDAY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EXTENDING INTO NORTH TX WILL
PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TX SUNDAY AND INTO SOUTH TX
MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MIDLEVEL LOW WILL
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 3 TO 4
FEET...GENERALLY WIND WAVE DRIVEN FROM  LOCAL SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  75  85  78  89 /  50  70  40  40
BROWNSVILLE          74  86  75  90 /  50  70  40  40
HARLINGEN            72  86  74  91 /  50  70  40  40
MCALLEN              75  87  75  92 /  30  70  40  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      73  86  74  94 /  20  60  40  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  85  78  87 /  50  70  40  40
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/61/MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 151728 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1228 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SHWOER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OFF THE GULF
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE THE RAINFALL
WILL ALSO MOVE FURTHER INLAND...STARTING TO AFFECT KMFE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED THAT ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES
THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A LULL THIS EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NEXT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND WILL LAST INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY.
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE MAIN PORTION OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH LOWERED CIGS AND VIS IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CAMERON COUNTY AND MAY ACTUALLY MOVE BETWEEN BRO AND HRL. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER VALLEY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AND POSSIBLY AFFECT MFE AS WELL. RAIN SHOULD WANE
TOWARDS SUNSET WITH ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE YUCATAN AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...
NORTHEASTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS PERSIST WITH A SHEAR LINE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF.
STATIONARY BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS NUDGING JUST
SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE /GOES
PRECIPITABLE WATER/ ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IS
CONTRIBUTING TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS ATTM.
NOT MUCH HEADWAY HAS BEEN MADE INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT
BELIEVE NEXT BATCH MAY MAKE IT INTO WILLACY/CAMERON COUNTIES IN
THE PREDAWN HOURS AND HAVE RAISED POPS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

KEPT PREVIOUS PACKAGE MOSTLY IN TACT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD WITH WEST SIDE AFFECTING MORE OF THE AREA TODAY AS TIME
GOES ON WITH THE APEX OF THE WAVE CROSSING THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING
AND ACROSS THE MID/UPPER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PWATS PROGGED TO
BE 2.1-2.3 THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PWATS ENTERING THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY LATE TUESDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER
INLAND AND WEAKENS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE HWY 281 EASTWARD WHERE SCATTERED COVERAGE
WILL BE LOCATED AND MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE WEST OF THIS LINE. AS THE
WAVE MOVES INLAND TUESDAY SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DID RAISE POPS
TUESDAY TO LIKELY AS THIS TIME LOOKS OPTIMAL DUE TO LOW/MID
CONVERGENCE...MAXIMIZED MOISTURE...AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE.
CONSENSUS MODELS APPROVE THE BOOST IN POPS FOR TUESDAY.

WILL SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY SO HIGHS WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S /MAINLY WEST/ TODAY. WITH EXPECTED
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS ELECTED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST WILL KEEP LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST...COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST. A 589 DAM HEIGHT CENTER OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST
MEXICO WILL TRY TO GET THE UPPER HAND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT TOO MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO COMPLETELY CUT OFF RAIN
CHANCES. AS THE TAIL END OF A FRONT IN THE VICINITY GETS NUDGED BACK
NORTH...POP CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN A BIT WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FEW BIG CHANGES THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...FOCUSING
CONVERGENCE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF. THAT WILL BE
THE ORIGIN OF INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL...A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...LIKELY INCREASING
LOCAL RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT PERIOD.
AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EDGING SLOWLY DOWN JUST A BIT...JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO...AS SEPTEMBER PROGRESSES...AND FCST VALUES WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
SUIT...BUT WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABV NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL
WEIGH IN ON THE PARTLY CLOUDY OR MORE SIDE MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS DETERMINED PRIMARILY BY THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN AN INCOMING BATCH OF
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION SHIFTS WINDS MORE TO THE EAST. MAINTAINED
MUCH OF THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH ONLY A FEW SMALL UPDATES.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL RULE THIS PERIOD WITH
SEAS TAKING A SLOW FALL TO AROUND 3 FEET BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF WILL NOT COMPLETELY STYMIE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...AND A LINGERING SURFACE TROF
WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST...RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. LGT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL OTHERWISE
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64









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