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000
FXUS64 KBRO 120510 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1110 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES
AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO NEAR CALM WINDS.
HOWEVER...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE THREE TERMINAL SITES
IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO NEAR CALM
WINDS. HOWEVER...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE THREE TERMINAL
SITES IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING UP TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE
KEEPING DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS DURING MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

NEAR THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TOWARDS WEST TEXAS INTERACTING WITH
BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15 TO 10 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING AND DECREASING TO 10 MPH BY
MIDNIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND THE RGV REGION WHILE COUNTIES
WESTWARD WINDS WILL REMAIN A LOT LIGHTER. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ALSO BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHTER WINDS AND MOISTURE
CONTENT NEAR THE SURFACE WITH CLEAR SKIES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND WESTERN COUNTIES
INCLUDING STARR AND WEST OF HIDALGO COUNTY. OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL
RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIGGING SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN TEXAS EARLY FRI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND WITH SE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST BUT STILL REMAINS VERY LIMITED. A FEW CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ITS
CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA. TONIGHT THE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SOMEWHAT
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. SUNDAY BEFORE A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA MON NIGHT. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING WARM
TEMPS TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF WATERS WITH SCEC THROUGH THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 3 FEET OR
LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES EASTWARD...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT. STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AS A
RESULT.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55





000
FXUS64 KBRO 112356 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
556 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO NEAR CALM
WINDS. HOWEVER...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE THREE TERMINAL
SITES IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING UP TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE
KEEPING DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS DURING MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

NEAR THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TOWARDS WEST TEXAS INTERACTING WITH
BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15 TO 10 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING AND DECREASING TO 10 MPH BY
MIDNIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND THE RGV REGION WHILE COUNTIES
WESTWARD WINDS WILL REMAIN A LOT LIGHTER. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ALSO BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHTER WINDS AND MOISTURE
CONTENT NEAR THE SURFACE WITH CLEAR SKIES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND WESTERN COUNTIES
INCLUDING STARR AND WEST OF HIDALGO COUNTY. OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL
RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIGGING SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN TEXAS EARLY FRI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND WITH SE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST BUT STILL REMAINS VERY LIMITED. A FEW CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ITS
CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA. TONIGHT THE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SOMEWHAT
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. SUNDAY BEFORE A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA MON NIGHT. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING WARM
TEMPS TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF WATERS WITH SCEC THROUGH THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 3 FEET OR
LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES EASTWARD...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT. STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AS A
RESULT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 112356 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
556 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO NEAR CALM
WINDS. HOWEVER...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE THREE TERMINAL
SITES IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING UP TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE
KEEPING DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS DURING MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

NEAR THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TOWARDS WEST TEXAS INTERACTING WITH
BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15 TO 10 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING AND DECREASING TO 10 MPH BY
MIDNIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND THE RGV REGION WHILE COUNTIES
WESTWARD WINDS WILL REMAIN A LOT LIGHTER. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ALSO BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHTER WINDS AND MOISTURE
CONTENT NEAR THE SURFACE WITH CLEAR SKIES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND WESTERN COUNTIES
INCLUDING STARR AND WEST OF HIDALGO COUNTY. OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL
RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIGGING SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN TEXAS EARLY FRI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND WITH SE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST BUT STILL REMAINS VERY LIMITED. A FEW CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ITS
CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA. TONIGHT THE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SOMEWHAT
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. SUNDAY BEFORE A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA MON NIGHT. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING WARM
TEMPS TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF WATERS WITH SCEC THROUGH THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 3 FEET OR
LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES EASTWARD...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT. STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AS A
RESULT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 112356 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
556 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO NEAR CALM
WINDS. HOWEVER...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE THREE TERMINAL
SITES IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING UP TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE
KEEPING DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS DURING MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

NEAR THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TOWARDS WEST TEXAS INTERACTING WITH
BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15 TO 10 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING AND DECREASING TO 10 MPH BY
MIDNIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND THE RGV REGION WHILE COUNTIES
WESTWARD WINDS WILL REMAIN A LOT LIGHTER. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ALSO BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHTER WINDS AND MOISTURE
CONTENT NEAR THE SURFACE WITH CLEAR SKIES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND WESTERN COUNTIES
INCLUDING STARR AND WEST OF HIDALGO COUNTY. OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL
RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIGGING SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN TEXAS EARLY FRI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND WITH SE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST BUT STILL REMAINS VERY LIMITED. A FEW CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ITS
CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA. TONIGHT THE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SOMEWHAT
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. SUNDAY BEFORE A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA MON NIGHT. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING WARM
TEMPS TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF WATERS WITH SCEC THROUGH THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 3 FEET OR
LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES EASTWARD...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT. STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AS A
RESULT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 112000
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
200 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING UP TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE
KEEPING DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS DURING MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

NEAR THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TOWARDS WEST TEXAS INTERACTING WITH
BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15 TO 10 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING AND DECREASING TO 10 MPH BY
MIDNIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND THE RGV REGION WHILE COUNTIES
WESTWARD WINDS WILL REMAIN A LOT LIGHTER. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ALSO BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHTER WINDS AND MOISTURE
CONTENT NEAR THE SURFACE WITH CLEAR SKIES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND WESTERN COUNTIES
INCLUDING STARR AND WEST OF HIDALGO COUNTY. OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL
RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIGGING SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN TEXAS EARLY FRI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND WITH SE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST BUT STILL REMAINS VERY LIMITED. A FEW CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ITS
CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA. TONIGHT THE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SOMEWHAT
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. SUNDAY BEFORE A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA MON NIGHT. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING WARM
TEMPS TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF WATERS WITH SCEC THROUGH THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 3 FEET OR
LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES EASTWARD...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT. STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AS A
RESULT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  58  76  59  73 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          58  79  57  75 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            57  81  55  76 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              58  84  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      54  84  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   61  71  61  70 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61





000
FXUS64 KBRO 111732
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1132 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING
WITH LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL STRENGTHEN GRADIENT TODAY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. INTO FRIDAY...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING
RESULTING IN MORE CU FIELD EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS OVERNIGHT WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE CALM. THIS WILL NOT
AFFECT THE THREE TERMINAL SITES IN THE RGV.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEGINNING THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED 15-17 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER
WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH
SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS NEAR AND ALONG THE
COAST ARE SLOWLY INCREASING SO THE MOISTURE RETURN HAS COMMENCED.
ALOFT...500MB RIDGE REMAINS ALIGNED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OUR REGION REMAINS IN A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
AND STALL THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING IN RESPONSE...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-69C. WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH 10-15 MPH WEST OF
I-69C AND 20-25 MPH EAST OF I-69C. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MOISTURE
RETURN HAS STARTED...IT WILL BE MODEST AT BEST WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE 15-20% RANGE AND
20-35% RANGE EAST OF I-69C. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL EXIST
TODAY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN LARGELY QUIET THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS UPSTREAM RIDGING TENDS
TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE TIME. A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST.
THIS SITUATION WILL SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...PRODUCING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...BUT OTHERWISE
RATHER SEASONAL WEATHER. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE FORM OF A
CANADIAN OUTBREAK CONTINUING TO SUPPLY HIGH PRESSURE TO EAST TEXAS
AND THE NORTHWEST GULF BEHIND A WEAK FRONT ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON THE
HEELS OF THE EASTWARD MOVING RIDGE BY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EXTENDING SOUTH TO WEST TEXAS WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
AMPLIFY SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POISED TO
ADVANCE OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY. LOOK FOR MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS JUST INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE DRY SIDE...WITH NO RAIN OR ONLY VERY
ISOLD SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER LAND NEAR THE COAST SUN THROUGH MON...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF MONDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL TAKE A SMALL DOWNWARD HIT IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT BUT THE FEW DEGREES OF DECREMENT EXPECTED WILL BARELY
BRING THEM CLOSE TO NORMAL. HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY
TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AGAIN.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL...THOUGH
WARMER THAN NORMAL...DAY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO
TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT
TO WARRANT SCEC CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS ON FRI...SO WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2-4 FEET THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL
SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL EDGE EAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH GULF AS A FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/LOW
TO MDT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOUTH WINDS BACKING TO EAST ON SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEW HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS FROM UPSTREAM ON
SUNDAY...AND THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL
HELP TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE TO
MODERATE. AS THE TROUGH AXIS OVER TEXAS EDGES EAST...A FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE CWA AND OUT OVER THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO NORTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION TERRITORY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS
INTO THE REGION.

FIRE WEATHER...WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DISCUSSION TODAY FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL SECTIONS EXCEPT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWER RH VALUES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT HIGHER SFC AND 20 FOOT WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
EITHER WAY...ELEVATED CONDITIONS EXIST TODAY AND BURNING IS
DISCOURAGED. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FRIDAY WITH HIGHER RH VALUES AND
DECREASED WINDS.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61





000
FXUS64 KBRO 111138
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
538 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEGINNING THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED 15-17 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER
WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH
SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS NEAR AND ALONG THE
COAST ARE SLOWLY INCREASING SO THE MOISTURE RETURN HAS COMMENCED.
ALOFT...500MB RIDGE REMAINS ALIGNED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OUR REGION REMAINS IN A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
AND STALL THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING IN RESPONSE...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-69C. WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH 10-15 MPH WEST OF
I-69C AND 20-25 MPH EAST OF I-69C. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MOISTURE
RETURN HAS STARTED...IT WILL BE MODEST AT BEST WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE 15-20% RANGE AND
20-35% RANGE EAST OF I-69C. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL EXIST
TODAY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN LARGELY QUIET THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS UPSTREAM RIDGING TENDS
TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE TIME. A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST.
THIS SITUATION WILL SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...PRODUCING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...BUT OTHERWISE
RATHER SEASONAL WEATHER. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE FORM OF A
CANADIAN OUTBREAK CONTINUING TO SUPPLY HIGH PRESSURE TO EAST TEXAS
AND THE NORTHWEST GULF BEHIND A WEAK FRONT ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON THE
HEELS OF THE EASTWARD MOVING RIDGE BY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EXTENDING SOUTH TO WEST TEXAS WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
AMPLIFY SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POISED TO
ADVANCE OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY. LOOK FOR MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS JUST INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE DRY SIDE...WITH NO RAIN OR ONLY VERY
ISOLD SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER LAND NEAR THE COAST SUN THROUGH MON...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF MONDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL TAKE A SMALL DOWNWARD HIT IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT BUT THE FEW DEGREES OF DECREMENT EXPECTED WILL BARELY
BRING THEM CLOSE TO NORMAL. HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY
TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AGAIN.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL...THOUGH
WARMER THAN NORMAL...DAY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO
TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT
TO WARRANT SCEC CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS ON FRI...SO WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2-4 FEET THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL
SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL EDGE EAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH GULF AS A FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/LOW
TO MDT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOUTH WINDS BACKING TO EAST ON SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEW HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS FROM UPSTREAM ON
SUNDAY...AND THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL
HELP TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE TO
MODERATE. AS THE TROUGH AXIS OVER TEXAS EDGES EAST...A FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE CWA AND OUT OVER THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO NORTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION TERRITORY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS
INTO THE REGION.

FIRE WEATHER...WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DISCUSSION TODAY FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL SECTIONS EXCEPT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWER RH VALUES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT HIGHER SFC AND 20 FOOT WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
EITHER WAY...ELEVATED CONDITIONS EXIST TODAY AND BURNING IS
DISCOURAGED. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FRIDAY WITH HIGHER RH VALUES AND
DECREASED WINDS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55





000
FXUS64 KBRO 111138
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
538 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEGINNING THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED 15-17 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER
WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH
SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS NEAR AND ALONG THE
COAST ARE SLOWLY INCREASING SO THE MOISTURE RETURN HAS COMMENCED.
ALOFT...500MB RIDGE REMAINS ALIGNED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OUR REGION REMAINS IN A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
AND STALL THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING IN RESPONSE...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-69C. WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH 10-15 MPH WEST OF
I-69C AND 20-25 MPH EAST OF I-69C. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MOISTURE
RETURN HAS STARTED...IT WILL BE MODEST AT BEST WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE 15-20% RANGE AND
20-35% RANGE EAST OF I-69C. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL EXIST
TODAY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN LARGELY QUIET THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS UPSTREAM RIDGING TENDS
TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE TIME. A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST.
THIS SITUATION WILL SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...PRODUCING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...BUT OTHERWISE
RATHER SEASONAL WEATHER. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE FORM OF A
CANADIAN OUTBREAK CONTINUING TO SUPPLY HIGH PRESSURE TO EAST TEXAS
AND THE NORTHWEST GULF BEHIND A WEAK FRONT ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON THE
HEELS OF THE EASTWARD MOVING RIDGE BY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EXTENDING SOUTH TO WEST TEXAS WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
AMPLIFY SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POISED TO
ADVANCE OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY. LOOK FOR MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS JUST INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE DRY SIDE...WITH NO RAIN OR ONLY VERY
ISOLD SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER LAND NEAR THE COAST SUN THROUGH MON...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF MONDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL TAKE A SMALL DOWNWARD HIT IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT BUT THE FEW DEGREES OF DECREMENT EXPECTED WILL BARELY
BRING THEM CLOSE TO NORMAL. HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY
TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AGAIN.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL...THOUGH
WARMER THAN NORMAL...DAY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO
TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT
TO WARRANT SCEC CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS ON FRI...SO WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2-4 FEET THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL
SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL EDGE EAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH GULF AS A FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/LOW
TO MDT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOUTH WINDS BACKING TO EAST ON SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEW HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS FROM UPSTREAM ON
SUNDAY...AND THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL
HELP TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE TO
MODERATE. AS THE TROUGH AXIS OVER TEXAS EDGES EAST...A FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE CWA AND OUT OVER THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO NORTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION TERRITORY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS
INTO THE REGION.

FIRE WEATHER...WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DISCUSSION TODAY FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL SECTIONS EXCEPT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWER RH VALUES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT HIGHER SFC AND 20 FOOT WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
EITHER WAY...ELEVATED CONDITIONS EXIST TODAY AND BURNING IS
DISCOURAGED. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FRIDAY WITH HIGHER RH VALUES AND
DECREASED WINDS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55




000
FXUS64 KBRO 111138
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
538 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEGINNING THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED 15-17 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER
WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH
SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS NEAR AND ALONG THE
COAST ARE SLOWLY INCREASING SO THE MOISTURE RETURN HAS COMMENCED.
ALOFT...500MB RIDGE REMAINS ALIGNED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OUR REGION REMAINS IN A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
AND STALL THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING IN RESPONSE...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-69C. WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH 10-15 MPH WEST OF
I-69C AND 20-25 MPH EAST OF I-69C. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MOISTURE
RETURN HAS STARTED...IT WILL BE MODEST AT BEST WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE 15-20% RANGE AND
20-35% RANGE EAST OF I-69C. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL EXIST
TODAY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN LARGELY QUIET THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS UPSTREAM RIDGING TENDS
TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE TIME. A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST.
THIS SITUATION WILL SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...PRODUCING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...BUT OTHERWISE
RATHER SEASONAL WEATHER. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE FORM OF A
CANADIAN OUTBREAK CONTINUING TO SUPPLY HIGH PRESSURE TO EAST TEXAS
AND THE NORTHWEST GULF BEHIND A WEAK FRONT ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON THE
HEELS OF THE EASTWARD MOVING RIDGE BY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EXTENDING SOUTH TO WEST TEXAS WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
AMPLIFY SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POISED TO
ADVANCE OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY. LOOK FOR MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS JUST INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE DRY SIDE...WITH NO RAIN OR ONLY VERY
ISOLD SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER LAND NEAR THE COAST SUN THROUGH MON...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF MONDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL TAKE A SMALL DOWNWARD HIT IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT BUT THE FEW DEGREES OF DECREMENT EXPECTED WILL BARELY
BRING THEM CLOSE TO NORMAL. HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY
TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AGAIN.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL...THOUGH
WARMER THAN NORMAL...DAY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO
TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT
TO WARRANT SCEC CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS ON FRI...SO WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2-4 FEET THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL
SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL EDGE EAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH GULF AS A FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/LOW
TO MDT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOUTH WINDS BACKING TO EAST ON SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEW HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS FROM UPSTREAM ON
SUNDAY...AND THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL
HELP TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE TO
MODERATE. AS THE TROUGH AXIS OVER TEXAS EDGES EAST...A FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE CWA AND OUT OVER THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO NORTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION TERRITORY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS
INTO THE REGION.

FIRE WEATHER...WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DISCUSSION TODAY FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL SECTIONS EXCEPT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWER RH VALUES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT HIGHER SFC AND 20 FOOT WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
EITHER WAY...ELEVATED CONDITIONS EXIST TODAY AND BURNING IS
DISCOURAGED. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FRIDAY WITH HIGHER RH VALUES AND
DECREASED WINDS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55





000
FXUS64 KBRO 110949
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
349 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH
SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS NEAR AND ALONG THE
COAST ARE SLOWLY INCREASING SO THE MOISTURE RETURN HAS COMMENCED.
ALOFT...500MB RIDGE REMAINS ALIGNED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OUR REGION REMAINS IN A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
AND STALL THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING IN RESPONSE...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-69C. WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH 10-15 MPH WEST OF
I-69C AND 20-25 MPH EAST OF I-69C. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MOISTURE
RETURN HAS STARTED...IT WILL BE MODEST AT BEST WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE 15-20% RANGE AND
20-35% RANGE EAST OF I-69C. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL EXIST
TODAY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN LARGELY QUIET THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS UPSTREAM RIDGING TENDS
TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE TIME. A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST.
THIS SITUATION WILL SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...PRODUCING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...BUT OTHERWISE
RATHER SEASONAL WEATHER. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE FORM OF A
CANADIAN OUTBREAK CONTINUING TO SUPPLY HIGH PRESSURE TO EAST TEXAS
AND THE NORTHWEST GULF BEHIND A WEAK FRONT ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON THE
HEELS OF THE EASTWARD MOVING RIDGE BY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EXTENDING SOUTH TO WEST TEXAS WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
AMPLIFY SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POISED TO
ADVANCE OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY. LOOK FOR MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS JUST INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE DRY SIDE...WITH NO RAIN OR ONLY VERY
ISOLD SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER LAND NEAR THE COAST SUN THROUGH MON...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF MONDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL TAKE A SMALL DOWNWARD HIT IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT BUT THE FEW DEGREES OF DECREMENT EXPECTED WILL BARELY
BRING THEM CLOSE TO NORMAL. HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY
TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AGAIN.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL...THOUGH
WARMER THAN NORMAL...DAY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO
TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT
TO WARRANT SCEC CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS ON FRI...SO WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2-4 FEET THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL
SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL EDGE EAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH GULF AS A FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/LOW
TO MDT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOUTH WINDS BACKING TO EAST ON SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEW HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS FROM UPSTREAM ON
SUNDAY...AND THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL
HELP TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE TO
MODERATE. AS THE TROUGH AXIS OVER TEXAS EDGES EAST...A FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE CWA AND OUT OVER THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO NORTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION TERRITORY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DISCUSSION TODAY FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL SECTIONS EXCEPT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWER RH VALUES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT HIGHER SFC AND 20 FOOT WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
EITHER WAY...ELEVATED CONDITIONS EXIST TODAY AND BURNING IS
DISCOURAGED. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FRIDAY WITH HIGHER RH VALUES AND
DECREASED WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  58  76  59 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          79  58  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            82  56  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              84  58  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      86  54  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   72  61  71  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/54





000
FXUS64 KBRO 110539
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1139 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE
AREA EVEN AS AN ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT
AS A RESULT. SHALLOW PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE THURS NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES AT THE SURFACE AND LIGHTER
WINDS PREVAIL AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD KEEPING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COLD FRONT WILL DIG
SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT REMAIN TOWARDS MOST OF THE
EAST PORTION OF THE CONUS KEEPING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SATURDAY WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. INTO SUNDAY
THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT MORE AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTH OF WEST TEXAS STRENGTHENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCREASE SOUTHEAST
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL RANGED IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

AS TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE U.S. BRINGING IN ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE CWA.
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PRODUCING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT MAINLY REMAIN OVER THE GULF
WATERS WITH SE FLOW. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE VERY
LIMITED WITH FROPA KEEPING THE CWA UNDER DRY CONDITIONS BY LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER A FEW DEGREES BUT
WILL BRING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HIGH PRES
WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AGAIN. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 4 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. EXPECT MARGINAL SCEC CONDITIONS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX. MODERATE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THRUSDAY INTO
THURS NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER WEST TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
ARRIVING LATE MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF WATERS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE GULF LIMITING ANY RAINFALL CHANCES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS PLEASANT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
SEAS.

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
LOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THURS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THURS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURS EVENING AS A RESULT OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC
WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 110539
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1139 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE
AREA EVEN AS AN ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT
AS A RESULT. SHALLOW PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE THURS NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES AT THE SURFACE AND LIGHTER
WINDS PREVAIL AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD KEEPING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COLD FRONT WILL DIG
SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT REMAIN TOWARDS MOST OF THE
EAST PORTION OF THE CONUS KEEPING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SATURDAY WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. INTO SUNDAY
THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT MORE AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTH OF WEST TEXAS STRENGTHENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCREASE SOUTHEAST
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL RANGED IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

AS TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE U.S. BRINGING IN ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE CWA.
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PRODUCING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT MAINLY REMAIN OVER THE GULF
WATERS WITH SE FLOW. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE VERY
LIMITED WITH FROPA KEEPING THE CWA UNDER DRY CONDITIONS BY LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER A FEW DEGREES BUT
WILL BRING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HIGH PRES
WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AGAIN. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 4 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. EXPECT MARGINAL SCEC CONDITIONS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX. MODERATE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THRUSDAY INTO
THURS NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER WEST TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
ARRIVING LATE MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF WATERS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE GULF LIMITING ANY RAINFALL CHANCES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS PLEASANT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
SEAS.

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
LOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THURS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THURS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURS EVENING AS A RESULT OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC
WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 110539
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1139 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE
AREA EVEN AS AN ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT
AS A RESULT. SHALLOW PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE THURS NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES AT THE SURFACE AND LIGHTER
WINDS PREVAIL AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD KEEPING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COLD FRONT WILL DIG
SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT REMAIN TOWARDS MOST OF THE
EAST PORTION OF THE CONUS KEEPING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SATURDAY WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. INTO SUNDAY
THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT MORE AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTH OF WEST TEXAS STRENGTHENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCREASE SOUTHEAST
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL RANGED IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

AS TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE U.S. BRINGING IN ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE CWA.
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PRODUCING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT MAINLY REMAIN OVER THE GULF
WATERS WITH SE FLOW. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE VERY
LIMITED WITH FROPA KEEPING THE CWA UNDER DRY CONDITIONS BY LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER A FEW DEGREES BUT
WILL BRING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HIGH PRES
WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AGAIN. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 4 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. EXPECT MARGINAL SCEC CONDITIONS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX. MODERATE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THRUSDAY INTO
THURS NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER WEST TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
ARRIVING LATE MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF WATERS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE GULF LIMITING ANY RAINFALL CHANCES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS PLEASANT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
SEAS.

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
LOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THURS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THURS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURS EVENING AS A RESULT OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC
WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 102342 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
542 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE
AREA EVEN AS AN ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT
AS A RESULT. SHALLOW PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE THURS NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES AT THE SURFACE AND LIGHTER
WINDS PREVAIL AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD KEEPING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COLD FRONT WILL DIG
SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT REMAIN TOWARDS MOST OF THE
EAST PORTION OF THE CONUS KEEPING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SATURDAY WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. INTO SUNDAY
THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT MORE AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTH OF WEST TEXAS STRENGTHENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCREASE SOUTHEAST
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL RANGED IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

AS TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE U.S. BRINGING IN ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE CWA.
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PRODUCING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT MAINLY REMAIN OVER THE GULF
WATERS WITH SE FLOW. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE VERY
LIMITED WITH FROPA KEEPING THE CWA UNDER DRY CONDITIONS BY LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER A FEW DEGREES BUT
WILL BRING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HIGH PRES
WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AGAIN. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 4 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. EXPECT MARGINAL SCEC CONDITIONS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX. MODERATE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THRUSDAY INTO
THURS NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER WEST TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
ARRIVING LATE MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF WATERS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE GULF LIMITING ANY RAINFALL CHANCES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS PLEASANT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
SEAS.

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
LOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THURS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THURS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURS EVENING AS A RESULT OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC
WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 102342 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
542 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE
AREA EVEN AS AN ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT
AS A RESULT. SHALLOW PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE THURS NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES AT THE SURFACE AND LIGHTER
WINDS PREVAIL AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD KEEPING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COLD FRONT WILL DIG
SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT REMAIN TOWARDS MOST OF THE
EAST PORTION OF THE CONUS KEEPING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SATURDAY WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. INTO SUNDAY
THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT MORE AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTH OF WEST TEXAS STRENGTHENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCREASE SOUTHEAST
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL RANGED IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

AS TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE U.S. BRINGING IN ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE CWA.
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PRODUCING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT MAINLY REMAIN OVER THE GULF
WATERS WITH SE FLOW. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE VERY
LIMITED WITH FROPA KEEPING THE CWA UNDER DRY CONDITIONS BY LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER A FEW DEGREES BUT
WILL BRING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HIGH PRES
WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AGAIN. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 4 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. EXPECT MARGINAL SCEC CONDITIONS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX. MODERATE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THRUSDAY INTO
THURS NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER WEST TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
ARRIVING LATE MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF WATERS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE GULF LIMITING ANY RAINFALL CHANCES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS PLEASANT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
SEAS.

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
LOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THURS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THURS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURS EVENING AS A RESULT OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC
WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 102342 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
542 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE
AREA EVEN AS AN ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT
AS A RESULT. SHALLOW PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE THURS NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES AT THE SURFACE AND LIGHTER
WINDS PREVAIL AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD KEEPING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COLD FRONT WILL DIG
SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT REMAIN TOWARDS MOST OF THE
EAST PORTION OF THE CONUS KEEPING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SATURDAY WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. INTO SUNDAY
THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT MORE AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTH OF WEST TEXAS STRENGTHENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCREASE SOUTHEAST
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL RANGED IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

AS TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE U.S. BRINGING IN ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE CWA.
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PRODUCING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT MAINLY REMAIN OVER THE GULF
WATERS WITH SE FLOW. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE VERY
LIMITED WITH FROPA KEEPING THE CWA UNDER DRY CONDITIONS BY LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER A FEW DEGREES BUT
WILL BRING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HIGH PRES
WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AGAIN. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 4 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. EXPECT MARGINAL SCEC CONDITIONS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX. MODERATE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THRUSDAY INTO
THURS NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER WEST TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
ARRIVING LATE MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF WATERS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE GULF LIMITING ANY RAINFALL CHANCES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS PLEASANT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
SEAS.

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
LOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THURS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THURS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURS EVENING AS A RESULT OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC
WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 102059 CCA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
259 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE
AREA EVEN AS AN ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT
AS A RESULT. SHALLOW PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE THURS NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES AT THE SURFACE AND LIGHTER
WINDS PREVAIL AT NIGHT.


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD KEEPING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COLD FRONT WILL DIG
SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT REMAIN TOWARDS MOST OF THE
EAST PORTION OF THE CONUS KEEPING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SATURDAY WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. INTO SUNDAY
THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT MORE AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTH OF WEST TEXAS STRENGTHENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCREASE SOUTHEAST
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL RANGED IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

AS TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE U.S. BRINGING IN ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE CWA.
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PRODUCING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT MAINLY REMAIN OVER THE GULF
WATERS WITH SE FLOW. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE VERY
LIMITED WITH FROPA KEEPING THE CWA UNDER DRY CONDITIONS BY LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER A FEW DEGREES BUT
WILL BRING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HIGH PRES
WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AGAIN. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 4 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. EXPECT MARGINAL SCEC CONDITIONS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX. MODERATE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THRUSDAY INTO
THURS NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER WEST TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
ARRIVING LATE MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF WATERS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE GULF LIMITING ANY RAINFALL CHANCES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS PLEASANT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
LOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THURS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THURS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURS EVENING AS A RESULT OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC
WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  54  79  58  76 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          52  79  58  79 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            51  82  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              50  83  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      49  85  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   57  72  60  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/67





000
FXUS64 KBRO 102059
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
259 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE
AREA EVEN AS AN ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT
AS A RESULT. SHALLOW PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE THURS NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES AT THE SURFACE AND LIGHTER
WINDS PREVAIL AT NIGHT.


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD KEEPING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COLD FRONT WILL DIG
SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT REMAIN TOWARDS MOST OF THE
EAST PORTION OF THE CONUS KEEPING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SATURDAY WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. INTO SUNDAY
THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT MORE AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTH OF WEST TEXAS STRENGTHENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCREASE SOUTHEAST
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL RANGED IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

AS TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE U.S. BRINGING IN ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE CWA.
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PRODUCING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT MAINLY REMAIN OVER THE GULF
WATERS WITH SE FLOW. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE VERY
LIMITED WITH FROPA KEEPING THE CWA UNDER DRY CONDITIONS BY LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER A FEW DEGREES BUT
WILL BRING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HIGH PRES
WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AGAIN. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 4 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. EXPECT MARGINAL SCEC CONDITIONS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX. MODERATE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THRUSDAY INTO
THURS NIGHT AS A RESULT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
LOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THURS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THURS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURS EVENING AS A RESULT OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC
WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  54  79  58  76 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          52  79  58  79 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            51  82  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              50  83  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      49  85  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   57  72  60  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/67





000
FXUS64 KBRO 101720 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1120 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING. 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A RESULT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR COND TO PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
WINDS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS STATIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING REMAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT AIDED IN
INCREASED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TUESDAY HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND SO HAS
THE STREAM OF CIRRUS. TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 DEGREES WHICH IS
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO AN EXCELLENT NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
WILL LEAD TO LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WHICH IS
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS AND AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND STALLS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SO WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER THURSDAY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-69C. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH READINGS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
AREA.

CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS WEST OF I-69E AND LOWER 20S
EAST OF I-69E. SURFACE AND 20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
WHICH PRECLUDES ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY. MOISTURE AND
DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS WELL THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING IN
NORTHERN TEXAS. THERE MAY BE A JUXTAPOSITION OF LOWER RH VALUES AND
STRONGER WINDS TO WARRANT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-69C.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN LARGELY QUIET THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS UPSTREAM RIDGING TENDS
TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE TIME. A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. THIS SITUATION WILL SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...PRODUCING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...BUT
OTHERWISE RATHER SEASONAL WEATHER. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE FORM OF A CANADIAN OUTBREAK CONTINUING TO SUPPLY HIGH PRESSURE
TO EAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON THE
HEELS OF THE EASTWARD MOVING RIDGE BY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTH
TO WEST TEXAS WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND AMPLIFY SOUTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE CWA...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POISED TO ADVANCE OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR MDT TO
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS JUST INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE DRY SIDE...
WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED OVER LAND...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF MONDAY AFTN AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A SMALL HIT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT THE FEW
DEGREES THAT THEY DROP WILL BRING THEM CLOSE TO NORMAL. HIGH PRES
WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AGAIN. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.

MARINE...

NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 1.3 FEET WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS NEAR 13 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
SPEED AND SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE FROM 1-2 FEET TODAY TO 3-4
FEET THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL
SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL EDGE EAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH GULF. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ON THURSDAY WILL EASE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT/LOW TO MDT THROUGH SUNDAY. ON
SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE
WEST...AND THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS UPSTREAM WILL HELP TIGHTEN
THE GRADIENT...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE TO MODERATE. NO
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/67/BIRCHFIELD





000
FXUS64 KBRO 101155
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
555 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR COND TO PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
WINDS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS STATIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING REMAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT AIDED IN
INCREASED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TUESDAY HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND SO HAS
THE STREAM OF CIRRUS. TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 DEGREES WHICH IS
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO AN EXCELLENT NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
WILL LEAD TO LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WHICH IS
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS AND AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND STALLS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SO WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER THURSDAY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-69C. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH READINGS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
AREA.

CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS WEST OF I-69E AND LOWER 20S
EAST OF I-69E. SURFACE AND 20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
WHICH PRECLUDES ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY. MOISTURE AND
DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS WELL THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING IN
NORTHERN TEXAS. THERE MAY BE A JUXTAPOSITION OF LOWER RH VALUES AND
STRONGER WINDS TO WARRANT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-69C.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN LARGELY QUIET THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS UPSTREAM RIDGING TENDS
TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE TIME. A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. THIS SITUATION WILL SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...PRODUCING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...BUT
OTHERWISE RATHER SEASONAL WEATHER. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE FORM OF A CANADIAN OUTBREAK CONTINUING TO SUPPLY HIGH PRESSURE
TO EAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON THE
HEELS OF THE EASTWARD MOVING RIDGE BY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTH
TO WEST TEXAS WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND AMPLIFY SOUTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE CWA...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POISED TO ADVANCE OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR MDT TO
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS JUST INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE DRY SIDE...
WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED OVER LAND...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF MONDAY AFTN AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A SMALL HIT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT THE FEW
DEGREES THAT THEY DROP WILL BRING THEM CLOSE TO NORMAL. HIGH PRES
WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AGAIN. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.

MARINE...

NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 1.3 FEET WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS NEAR 13 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
SPEED AND SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE FROM 1-2 FEET TODAY TO 3-4
FEET THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL
SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL EDGE EAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH GULF. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ON THURSDAY WILL EASE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT/LOW TO MDT THROUGH SUNDAY. ON
SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE
WEST...AND THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS UPSTREAM WILL HELP TIGHTEN
THE GRADIENT...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE TO MODERATE. NO
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/99





000
FXUS64 KBRO 101155
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
555 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR COND TO PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
WINDS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS STATIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING REMAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT AIDED IN
INCREASED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TUESDAY HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND SO HAS
THE STREAM OF CIRRUS. TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 DEGREES WHICH IS
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO AN EXCELLENT NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
WILL LEAD TO LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WHICH IS
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS AND AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND STALLS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SO WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER THURSDAY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-69C. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH READINGS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
AREA.

CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS WEST OF I-69E AND LOWER 20S
EAST OF I-69E. SURFACE AND 20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
WHICH PRECLUDES ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY. MOISTURE AND
DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS WELL THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING IN
NORTHERN TEXAS. THERE MAY BE A JUXTAPOSITION OF LOWER RH VALUES AND
STRONGER WINDS TO WARRANT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-69C.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN LARGELY QUIET THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS UPSTREAM RIDGING TENDS
TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE TIME. A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. THIS SITUATION WILL SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...PRODUCING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...BUT
OTHERWISE RATHER SEASONAL WEATHER. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE FORM OF A CANADIAN OUTBREAK CONTINUING TO SUPPLY HIGH PRESSURE
TO EAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON THE
HEELS OF THE EASTWARD MOVING RIDGE BY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTH
TO WEST TEXAS WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND AMPLIFY SOUTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE CWA...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POISED TO ADVANCE OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR MDT TO
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS JUST INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE DRY SIDE...
WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED OVER LAND...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF MONDAY AFTN AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A SMALL HIT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT THE FEW
DEGREES THAT THEY DROP WILL BRING THEM CLOSE TO NORMAL. HIGH PRES
WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AGAIN. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.

MARINE...

NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 1.3 FEET WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS NEAR 13 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
SPEED AND SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE FROM 1-2 FEET TODAY TO 3-4
FEET THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL
SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL EDGE EAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH GULF. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ON THURSDAY WILL EASE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT/LOW TO MDT THROUGH SUNDAY. ON
SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE
WEST...AND THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS UPSTREAM WILL HELP TIGHTEN
THE GRADIENT...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE TO MODERATE. NO
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/99





000
FXUS64 KBRO 101155
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
555 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR COND TO PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
WINDS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS STATIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING REMAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT AIDED IN
INCREASED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TUESDAY HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND SO HAS
THE STREAM OF CIRRUS. TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 DEGREES WHICH IS
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO AN EXCELLENT NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
WILL LEAD TO LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WHICH IS
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS AND AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND STALLS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SO WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER THURSDAY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-69C. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH READINGS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
AREA.

CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS WEST OF I-69E AND LOWER 20S
EAST OF I-69E. SURFACE AND 20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
WHICH PRECLUDES ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY. MOISTURE AND
DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS WELL THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING IN
NORTHERN TEXAS. THERE MAY BE A JUXTAPOSITION OF LOWER RH VALUES AND
STRONGER WINDS TO WARRANT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-69C.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN LARGELY QUIET THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS UPSTREAM RIDGING TENDS
TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE TIME. A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. THIS SITUATION WILL SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...PRODUCING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...BUT
OTHERWISE RATHER SEASONAL WEATHER. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE FORM OF A CANADIAN OUTBREAK CONTINUING TO SUPPLY HIGH PRESSURE
TO EAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON THE
HEELS OF THE EASTWARD MOVING RIDGE BY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTH
TO WEST TEXAS WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND AMPLIFY SOUTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE CWA...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POISED TO ADVANCE OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR MDT TO
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS JUST INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE DRY SIDE...
WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED OVER LAND...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF MONDAY AFTN AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A SMALL HIT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT THE FEW
DEGREES THAT THEY DROP WILL BRING THEM CLOSE TO NORMAL. HIGH PRES
WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AGAIN. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.

MARINE...

NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 1.3 FEET WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS NEAR 13 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
SPEED AND SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE FROM 1-2 FEET TODAY TO 3-4
FEET THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL
SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL EDGE EAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH GULF. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ON THURSDAY WILL EASE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT/LOW TO MDT THROUGH SUNDAY. ON
SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE
WEST...AND THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS UPSTREAM WILL HELP TIGHTEN
THE GRADIENT...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE TO MODERATE. NO
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/99




000
FXUS64 KBRO 100942
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
342 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS STATIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING REMAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT AIDED IN
INCREASED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TUESDAY HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND SO HAS
THE STREAM OF CIRRUS. TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 DEGREES WHICH IS
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO AN EXCELLENT NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
WILL LEAD TO LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WHICH IS
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS AND AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND STALLS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SO WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER THURSDAY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-69C. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH READINGS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
AREA.

CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS WEST OF I-69E AND LOWER 20S
EAST OF I-69E. SURFACE AND 20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
WHICH PRECLUDES ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY. MOISTURE AND
DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS WELL THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING IN
NORTHERN TEXAS. THERE MAY BE A JUXTAPOSITION OF LOWER RH VALUES AND
STRONGER WINDS TO WARRANT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-69C.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN LARGELY QUIET THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS UPSTREAM RIDGING TENDS
TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE TIME. A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. THIS SITUATION WILL SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...PRODUCING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...BUT
OTHERWISE RATHER SEASONAL WEATHER. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE FORM OF A CANADIAN OUTBREAK CONTINUING TO SUPPLY HIGH PRESSURE
TO EAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON THE
HEELS OF THE EASTWARD MOVING RIDGE BY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTH
TO WEST TEXAS WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND AMPLIFY SOUTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE CWA...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POISED TO ADVANCE OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR MDT TO
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS JUST INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE DRY SIDE...
WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED OVER LAND...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF MONDAY AFTN AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A SMALL HIT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT THE FEW
DEGREES THAT THEY DROP WILL BRING THEM CLOSE TO NORMAL. HIGH PRES
WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AGAIN. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.MARINE...

NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 1.3 FEET WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS NEAR 13 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
SPEED AND SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE FROM 1-2 FEET TODAY TO 3-4
FEET THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL
SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL EDGE EAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH GULF. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ON THURSDAY WILL EASE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT/LOW TO MDT THROUGH SUNDAY. ON
SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE
WEST...AND THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS UPSTREAM WILL HELP TIGHTEN
THE GRADIENT...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE TO MODERATE. NO
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  56  75  60 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          76  56  77  58 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            78  54  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              80  53  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      81  51  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   70  59  71  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/54





000
FXUS64 KBRO 100523
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1123 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WED AFTERNOON. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LOWS WILL BE COOL AGAIN AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS LIFTS OUT BY WED INTO THU WHILE UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY DRIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST. SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO KEEPING A SE FLOW ACROSS S TEXAS WHILE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST INCREASING SE WINDS THURSDAY. WITH DAYTIME MIXING WINDS
WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THE
ABUNDANT DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW
HALF INCH AND MEAN RH NO HIGHER THAN 32 PERCENT. INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD...SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAINS LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH STILL ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED BUT WIL MAINLY INCREASE THE CU FIELD ALONG
THE COAST AT THE MOST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
REMAIN IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA AND NEAR MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT
RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 50S.

RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BLOCKING A STRONG CANADIAN BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AS IT IS
SHIFTED INTO THE SE PLAINS. THE COLDER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN EAST
AND SOUTHEAST KEEPING S TEXAS ON THE WARMER AIR MASS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN INCREASING SE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST AND SURGE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. HUMIDITY
VALUES INCREASE ABOVE 70 PERCENT WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET
WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 12 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO MOVES EASTWARD. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE WED
NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THURSDAY WHEN THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
INCREASING WINDS AND AGITATING SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FEET IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCEC OVER THE GULF. THE NEXT ROUND OF HIGHER
WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE EAST COAST. THE SE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
POSSIBLE HIGH END SCEC LEVEL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS PLEASANT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 092350 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
550 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WED AFTERNOON. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LOWS WILL BE COOL AGAIN AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS LIFTS OUT BY WED INTO THU WHILE UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY DRIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST. SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO KEEPING A SE FLOW ACROSS S TEXAS WHILE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST INCREASING SE WINDS THURSDAY. WITH DAYTIME MIXING WINDS
WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THE
ABUNDANT DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW
HALF INCH AND MEAN RH NO HIGHER THAN 32 PERCENT. INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD...SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAINS LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH STILL ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED BUT WIL MAINLY INCREASE THE CU FIELD ALONG
THE COAST AT THE MOST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
REMAIN IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA AND NEAR MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT
RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 50S.

RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BLOCKING A STRONG CANADIAN BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AS IT IS
SHIFTED INTO THE SE PLAINS. THE COLDER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN EAST
AND SOUTHEAST KEEPING S TEXAS ON THE WARMER AIR MASS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN INCREASING SE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST AND SURGE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. HUMIDITY
VALUES INCREASE ABOVE 70 PERCENT WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET
WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 12 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO MOVES EASTWARD. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE WED
NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THURSDAY WHEN THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
INCREASING WINDS AND AGITATING SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FEET IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCEC OVER THE GULF. THE NEXT ROUND OF HIGHER
WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE EAST COAST. THE SE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
POSSIBLE HIGH END SCEC LEVEL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS PLEASANT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 092350 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
550 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WED AFTERNOON. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LOWS WILL BE COOL AGAIN AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS LIFTS OUT BY WED INTO THU WHILE UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY DRIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST. SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO KEEPING A SE FLOW ACROSS S TEXAS WHILE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST INCREASING SE WINDS THURSDAY. WITH DAYTIME MIXING WINDS
WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THE
ABUNDANT DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW
HALF INCH AND MEAN RH NO HIGHER THAN 32 PERCENT. INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD...SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAINS LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH STILL ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED BUT WIL MAINLY INCREASE THE CU FIELD ALONG
THE COAST AT THE MOST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
REMAIN IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA AND NEAR MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT
RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 50S.

RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BLOCKING A STRONG CANADIAN BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AS IT IS
SHIFTED INTO THE SE PLAINS. THE COLDER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN EAST
AND SOUTHEAST KEEPING S TEXAS ON THE WARMER AIR MASS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN INCREASING SE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST AND SURGE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. HUMIDITY
VALUES INCREASE ABOVE 70 PERCENT WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET
WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 12 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO MOVES EASTWARD. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE WED
NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THURSDAY WHEN THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
INCREASING WINDS AND AGITATING SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FEET IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCEC OVER THE GULF. THE NEXT ROUND OF HIGHER
WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE EAST COAST. THE SE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
POSSIBLE HIGH END SCEC LEVEL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS PLEASANT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 092350 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
550 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WED AFTERNOON. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LOWS WILL BE COOL AGAIN AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS LIFTS OUT BY WED INTO THU WHILE UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY DRIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST. SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO KEEPING A SE FLOW ACROSS S TEXAS WHILE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST INCREASING SE WINDS THURSDAY. WITH DAYTIME MIXING WINDS
WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THE
ABUNDANT DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW
HALF INCH AND MEAN RH NO HIGHER THAN 32 PERCENT. INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD...SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAINS LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH STILL ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED BUT WIL MAINLY INCREASE THE CU FIELD ALONG
THE COAST AT THE MOST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
REMAIN IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA AND NEAR MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT
RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 50S.

RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BLOCKING A STRONG CANADIAN BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AS IT IS
SHIFTED INTO THE SE PLAINS. THE COLDER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN EAST
AND SOUTHEAST KEEPING S TEXAS ON THE WARMER AIR MASS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN INCREASING SE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST AND SURGE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. HUMIDITY
VALUES INCREASE ABOVE 70 PERCENT WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET
WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 12 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO MOVES EASTWARD. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE WED
NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THURSDAY WHEN THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
INCREASING WINDS AND AGITATING SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FEET IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCEC OVER THE GULF. THE NEXT ROUND OF HIGHER
WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE EAST COAST. THE SE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
POSSIBLE HIGH END SCEC LEVEL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS PLEASANT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 092059
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
259 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WED AFTERNOON. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LOWS WILL BE COOL AGAIN AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS LIFTS OUT BY WED INTO THU WHILE UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY DRIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST. SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO KEEPING A SE FLOW ACROSS S TEXAS WHILE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST INCREASING SE WINDS THURSDAY. WITH DAYTIME MIXING WINDS
WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THE
ABUNDANT DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW
HALF INCH AND MEAN RH NO HIGHER THAN 32 PERCENT. INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD...SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAINS LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH STILL ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED BUT WIL MAINLY INCREASE THE CU FIELD ALONG
THE COAST AT THE MOST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
REMAIN IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA AND NEAR MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT
RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 50S.

RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BLOCKING A STRONG CANADIAN BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AS IT IS
SHIFTED INTO THE SE PLAINS. THE COLDER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN EAST
AND SOUTHEAST KEEPING S TEXAS ON THE WARMER AIR MASS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN INCREASING SE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST AND SURGE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. HUMIDITY
VALUES INCREASE ABOVE 70 PERCENT WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET
WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 12 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO MOVES EASTWARD. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE WED
NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THURSDAY WHEN THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
INCREASING WINDS AND AGITATING SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FEET IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCEC OVER THE GULF. THE NEXT ROUND OF HIGHER
WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE EAST COAST. THE SE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
POSSIBLE HIGH END SCEC LEVEL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS PLEASANT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  45  75  56  78 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          42  77  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            44  78  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              47  80  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      43  81  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   49  69  58  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/67





000
FXUS64 KBRO 091720 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1120 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING.
500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
DRAPED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING AND SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. MAINLY THIN
CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGHLY AMPLIFIES RIDGE WILL
VIRTUALLY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVERHEAD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A CUTOFF LOW WAS NOTED ON
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WHICH WAS
AIDING IN AN INCREASE OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS INTO THE AREA. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD SO THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS WEST AND SOUTH
TEXAS AT THIS HOUR AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
KEEPING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 12-16%
RANGE WEST OF I 69E AND 16-30% EAST OF I 69E TO THE COAST.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...DO NOT EXPECT A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL AID IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HEADING
INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...THE LONG TERM
REMAINS RATHER BENIGN WITH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS STUCK BETWEEN THE COLD
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST AND THE WARM RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST. SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE NORMAL PREVAILING SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WAS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY/SUNDAY IS NOW INDICATED TO REMAIN NORTH OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
TO STEADILY CLIMB WITH TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES RANGING 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. FORECAST REMAINS DRY
WITH 00Z POP GUIDANCE SHOWING THE LOWEST NUMBERS OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS
AROUND 3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 02 CST/08 UTC. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME
ONSHORE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO
STRENGTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS BECOME BORDERLINE EXERCISE CAUTION
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. WINDS AND SEAS LOWER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE WEAKENING AND RETREATING
WESTWARD.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/67/BIRCHFIELD




000
FXUS64 KBRO 091720 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1120 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING.
500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
DRAPED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING AND SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. MAINLY THIN
CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGHLY AMPLIFIES RIDGE WILL
VIRTUALLY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVERHEAD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A CUTOFF LOW WAS NOTED ON
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WHICH WAS
AIDING IN AN INCREASE OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS INTO THE AREA. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD SO THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS WEST AND SOUTH
TEXAS AT THIS HOUR AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
KEEPING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 12-16%
RANGE WEST OF I 69E AND 16-30% EAST OF I 69E TO THE COAST.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...DO NOT EXPECT A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL AID IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HEADING
INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...THE LONG TERM
REMAINS RATHER BENIGN WITH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS STUCK BETWEEN THE COLD
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST AND THE WARM RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST. SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE NORMAL PREVAILING SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WAS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY/SUNDAY IS NOW INDICATED TO REMAIN NORTH OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
TO STEADILY CLIMB WITH TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES RANGING 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. FORECAST REMAINS DRY
WITH 00Z POP GUIDANCE SHOWING THE LOWEST NUMBERS OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS
AROUND 3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 02 CST/08 UTC. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME
ONSHORE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO
STRENGTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS BECOME BORDERLINE EXERCISE CAUTION
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. WINDS AND SEAS LOWER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE WEAKENING AND RETREATING
WESTWARD.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/67/BIRCHFIELD





000
FXUS64 KBRO 091720 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1120 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING.
500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
DRAPED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING AND SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. MAINLY THIN
CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGHLY AMPLIFIES RIDGE WILL
VIRTUALLY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVERHEAD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A CUTOFF LOW WAS NOTED ON
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WHICH WAS
AIDING IN AN INCREASE OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS INTO THE AREA. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD SO THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS WEST AND SOUTH
TEXAS AT THIS HOUR AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
KEEPING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 12-16%
RANGE WEST OF I 69E AND 16-30% EAST OF I 69E TO THE COAST.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...DO NOT EXPECT A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL AID IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HEADING
INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...THE LONG TERM
REMAINS RATHER BENIGN WITH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS STUCK BETWEEN THE COLD
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST AND THE WARM RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST. SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE NORMAL PREVAILING SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WAS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY/SUNDAY IS NOW INDICATED TO REMAIN NORTH OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
TO STEADILY CLIMB WITH TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES RANGING 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. FORECAST REMAINS DRY
WITH 00Z POP GUIDANCE SHOWING THE LOWEST NUMBERS OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS
AROUND 3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 02 CST/08 UTC. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME
ONSHORE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO
STRENGTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS BECOME BORDERLINE EXERCISE CAUTION
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. WINDS AND SEAS LOWER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE WEAKENING AND RETREATING
WESTWARD.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/67/BIRCHFIELD





000
FXUS64 KBRO 091127
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
527 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
DRAPED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING AND SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. MAINLY THIN
CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGHLY AMPLIFIES RIDGE WILL
VIRTUALLY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVERHEAD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A CUTOFF LOW WAS NOTED ON
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WHICH WAS
AIDING IN AN INCREASE OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS INTO THE AREA. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD SO THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS WEST AND SOUTH
TEXAS AT THIS HOUR AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
KEEPING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 12-16%
RANGE WEST OF I 69E AND 16-30% EAST OF I 69E TO THE COAST.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...DO NOT EXPECT A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL AID IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HEADING
INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...THE LONG TERM
REMAINS RATHER BENIGN WITH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS STUCK BETWEEN THE COLD
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST AND THE WARM RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST. SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE NORMAL PREVAILING SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WAS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY/SUNDAY IS NOW INDICATED TO REMAIN NORTH OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
TO STEADILY CLIMB WITH TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES RANGING 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. FORECAST REMAINS DRY
WITH 00Z POP GUIDANCE SHOWING THE LOWEST NUMBERS OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS
AROUND 3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 02 CST/08 UTC. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME
ONSHORE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO
STRENGTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS BECOME BORDERLINE EXERCISE CAUTION
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. WINDS AND SEAS LOWER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE WEAKENING AND RETREATING
WESTWARD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55





000
FXUS64 KBRO 090928
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
328 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGHLY AMPLIFIES RIDGE WILL
VIRTUALLY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVERHEAD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A CUTOFF LOW WAS NOTED ON
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WHICH WAS
AIDING IN AN INCREASE OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS INTO THE AREA. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD SO THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS WEST AND SOUTH
TEXAS AT THIS HOUR AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
KEEPING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 12-16%
RANGE WEST OF I 69E AND 16-30% EAST OF I 69E TO THE COAST.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...DO NOT EXPECT A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL AID IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HEADING
INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...THE LONG TERM
REMAINS RATHER BENIGN WITH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS STUCK BETWEEN THE COLD
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST AND THE WARM RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST. SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE NORMAL PREVAILING SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WAS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY/SUNDAY IS NOW INDICATED TO REMAIN NORTH OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
TO STEADILY CLIMB WITH TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES RANGING 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. FORECAST REMAINS DRY
WITH 00Z POP GUIDANCE SHOWING THE LOWEST NUMBERS OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS
AROUND 3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 02 CST/08 UTC. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME
ONSHORE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO
STRENGTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS BECOME BORDERLINE EXERCISE CAUTION
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. WINDS AND SEAS LOWER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE WEAKENING AND RETREATING
WESTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  50  74  57 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          72  48  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            73  46  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              76  49  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  46  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   68  54  70  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
65...GRAPHICS/PSU





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