Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KBRO 242346 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
546 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. /53/

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH 26/0000 UTC AS VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY ALLOW
A SCTD-BKN DECK OF MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO BE SEEN (MAINLY)
BETWEEN 25/0900 AND 25/1500 UTC. THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING LOWER
CIGS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE N COUNTIES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 10 000 FT. EVEN HERE.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT NE WINDS TO DIMINISH
IN SPEED AFTER SUNSET WITH NO OBSTRUCTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.  /53/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA BUT
ESSENTIALLY ALL COLUMN MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD. THE RESULT
IS A MILD AFTERNOON WITH COOL NORTHEAST WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
LOWER...DESPITE SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT...A COOL NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A LITTLE FARTHER TONIGHT THAN THEY HAVE IN
RECENT DAYS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 30S. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 40S IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY...COOL NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAKER. UNDER FULL SUNSHINE MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT BUT
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WARM AIR OR MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED.
ANOTHER PRETTY COOL/CHILLY NIGHT IS FORECAST WITH LOWS AROUND 40 TO
42. /68/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
COAST WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO/WEST TX THURSDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LOW ACROSS SOUTH TX INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH FRIDAY SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY IN RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF PROG SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
ALLOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. /61/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...DUE TO STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE QUITE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME MORE MODERATE
BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES WIND SPEEDS AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. ROUGH SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
MORE MODERATE CONDITIONS DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT. /68/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. /61/

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
LONG TERM FORECASTER... DRILLETTE
PSU/GRAPHICAST... BIRCHFIELD






000
FXUS64 KBRO 242346 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
546 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. /53/

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH 26/0000 UTC AS VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY ALLOW
A SCTD-BKN DECK OF MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO BE SEEN (MAINLY)
BETWEEN 25/0900 AND 25/1500 UTC. THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING LOWER
CIGS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE N COUNTIES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 10 000 FT. EVEN HERE.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT NE WINDS TO DIMINISH
IN SPEED AFTER SUNSET WITH NO OBSTRUCTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.  /53/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA BUT
ESSENTIALLY ALL COLUMN MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD. THE RESULT
IS A MILD AFTERNOON WITH COOL NORTHEAST WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
LOWER...DESPITE SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT...A COOL NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A LITTLE FARTHER TONIGHT THAN THEY HAVE IN
RECENT DAYS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 30S. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 40S IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY...COOL NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAKER. UNDER FULL SUNSHINE MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT BUT
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WARM AIR OR MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED.
ANOTHER PRETTY COOL/CHILLY NIGHT IS FORECAST WITH LOWS AROUND 40 TO
42. /68/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
COAST WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO/WEST TX THURSDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LOW ACROSS SOUTH TX INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH FRIDAY SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY IN RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF PROG SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
ALLOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. /61/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...DUE TO STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE QUITE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME MORE MODERATE
BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES WIND SPEEDS AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. ROUGH SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
MORE MODERATE CONDITIONS DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT. /68/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. /61/

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
LONG TERM FORECASTER... DRILLETTE
PSU/GRAPHICAST... BIRCHFIELD





000
FXUS64 KBRO 242044
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA BUT
ESSENTIALLY ALL COLUMN MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD. THE RESULT
IS A MILD AFTERNOON WITH COOL NORTHEAST WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
LOWER...DESPITE SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT...A COOL NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A LITTLE FARTHER TONIGHT THAN THEY HAVE IN
RECENT DAYS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 30S. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 40S IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY...COOL NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAKER. UNDER FULL SUNSHINE MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT BUT
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WARM AIR OR MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED.
ANOTHER PRETTY COOL/CHILLY NIGHT IS FORECAST WITH LOWS AROUND 40 TO
42.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
COAST WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO/WEST TX THURSDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LOW ACROSS SOUTH TX INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH FRIDAY SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY IN RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF PROG SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
ALLOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...DUE TO STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE QUITE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME MORE MODERATE
BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES WIND SPEEDS AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. ROUGH SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
MORE MODERATE CONDITIONS DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  51  70  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          51  71  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            48  71  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              47  72  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      47  70  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   57  70  54  72 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/61/BIRCHFIELD






000
FXUS64 KBRO 242044
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA BUT
ESSENTIALLY ALL COLUMN MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD. THE RESULT
IS A MILD AFTERNOON WITH COOL NORTHEAST WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
LOWER...DESPITE SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT...A COOL NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A LITTLE FARTHER TONIGHT THAN THEY HAVE IN
RECENT DAYS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 30S. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 40S IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY...COOL NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAKER. UNDER FULL SUNSHINE MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT BUT
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WARM AIR OR MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED.
ANOTHER PRETTY COOL/CHILLY NIGHT IS FORECAST WITH LOWS AROUND 40 TO
42.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
COAST WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO/WEST TX THURSDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LOW ACROSS SOUTH TX INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH FRIDAY SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY IN RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF PROG SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
ALLOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...DUE TO STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE QUITE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME MORE MODERATE
BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES WIND SPEEDS AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. ROUGH SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
MORE MODERATE CONDITIONS DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  51  70  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          51  71  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            48  71  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              47  72  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      47  70  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   57  70  54  72 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/61/BIRCHFIELD







000
FXUS64 KBRO 241731
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1131 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FAVORABLE FLYING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND DRYING LOW LEVELS. A THIRD
NIGHT OF FOG IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST AS SURFACE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE TOO DRY. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SLICING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CAMERON COUNTY WITH DENSE FOG REMAINING OVER THE BRO TERMINAL
CURRENTLY WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING AT THE HRL TERMINAL.
FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE BRO TERMINAL AROUND 12Z WITH
VIS/CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH 13Z. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO
BRO/HRL TERMINALS BY 1330Z. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH DECREASING WINDS
TOWARDS SUNSET. SHOULD EXPERIENCE PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID CLOUDS AS THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY IN THESE LEVELS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO COVER ALL THE COASTAL AREAS AND GULF WATERS 0-20NM
EAST OF THE COASTLINE. DENSE MARINE FOG ADVECTED IN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAS CONTINUED ITS N-NW PROGRESSION EVEN
REACHING EASTERN HIDALGO COUNTY. DID ALSO EXTEND THE TIMING
THROUGH 12Z BASED ON THE HRRR NOT BRINGING FROPA THROUGH THE LOWER
VALLEY TILL 12Z AND STRONGER WINDS NOT UNTIL 14Z. SPEAKING OF THE
FRONT...11-3.9 MICRON SHOWS THE FRONT CLEARLY THROUGH MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS AS A FINE LINE OF LOWER STRATUS WITH KRKP AND KCRP
WIND DIRECTIONS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST. EXTRAPOLATING USING
CURRENT SPEED PLACES THE FRONT IN THE LOWER VALLEY BY 12Z MATCHING
UP WITH THE HRRR.

NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG THE COAST THE WINDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MORE INLAND AREAS. WILL BE A NICE AND COOL DAY TODAY
WITH A SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S IN THE RANCHLANDS TO LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEY. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT THEN SINK SOUTHWARDS ON
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS CLOUDS AROUND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS UNTIL THE 500MB TROUGH UPSTREAM SWINGS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MET/MAV TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CAME IN COOLER SO
TRENDED OUR TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO ESPECIALLY IN
OUTLYING AREAS. TUESDAY HIGHS ARE A REPEAT OF TODAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY QUIET AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
PRIOR FORECAST. ALL IN ALL A MILD AND FAIRLY DRY WEEK IS IN THE
WORKS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH FLOW ALOFT VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING DRY AIR OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE
WEEK AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS. A 500 MB TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND SLOWLY NUDGES EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE WEAK TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE. STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL ROUGHEN SEAS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ROUGH SEAS WILL BECOME MORE MODERATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY
SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO INVADE AT LEAST THE 20-60NM WATERS
TUESDAY AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS RISING BACK UP
TO AROUND 7 FEET.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS OF 7 FEET. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ130-
     132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/61







000
FXUS64 KBRO 241731
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1131 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FAVORABLE FLYING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND DRYING LOW LEVELS. A THIRD
NIGHT OF FOG IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST AS SURFACE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE TOO DRY. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SLICING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CAMERON COUNTY WITH DENSE FOG REMAINING OVER THE BRO TERMINAL
CURRENTLY WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING AT THE HRL TERMINAL.
FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE BRO TERMINAL AROUND 12Z WITH
VIS/CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH 13Z. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO
BRO/HRL TERMINALS BY 1330Z. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH DECREASING WINDS
TOWARDS SUNSET. SHOULD EXPERIENCE PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID CLOUDS AS THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY IN THESE LEVELS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO COVER ALL THE COASTAL AREAS AND GULF WATERS 0-20NM
EAST OF THE COASTLINE. DENSE MARINE FOG ADVECTED IN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAS CONTINUED ITS N-NW PROGRESSION EVEN
REACHING EASTERN HIDALGO COUNTY. DID ALSO EXTEND THE TIMING
THROUGH 12Z BASED ON THE HRRR NOT BRINGING FROPA THROUGH THE LOWER
VALLEY TILL 12Z AND STRONGER WINDS NOT UNTIL 14Z. SPEAKING OF THE
FRONT...11-3.9 MICRON SHOWS THE FRONT CLEARLY THROUGH MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS AS A FINE LINE OF LOWER STRATUS WITH KRKP AND KCRP
WIND DIRECTIONS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST. EXTRAPOLATING USING
CURRENT SPEED PLACES THE FRONT IN THE LOWER VALLEY BY 12Z MATCHING
UP WITH THE HRRR.

NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG THE COAST THE WINDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MORE INLAND AREAS. WILL BE A NICE AND COOL DAY TODAY
WITH A SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S IN THE RANCHLANDS TO LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEY. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT THEN SINK SOUTHWARDS ON
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS CLOUDS AROUND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS UNTIL THE 500MB TROUGH UPSTREAM SWINGS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MET/MAV TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CAME IN COOLER SO
TRENDED OUR TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO ESPECIALLY IN
OUTLYING AREAS. TUESDAY HIGHS ARE A REPEAT OF TODAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY QUIET AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
PRIOR FORECAST. ALL IN ALL A MILD AND FAIRLY DRY WEEK IS IN THE
WORKS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH FLOW ALOFT VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING DRY AIR OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE
WEEK AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS. A 500 MB TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND SLOWLY NUDGES EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE WEAK TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE. STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL ROUGHEN SEAS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ROUGH SEAS WILL BECOME MORE MODERATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY
SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO INVADE AT LEAST THE 20-60NM WATERS
TUESDAY AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS RISING BACK UP
TO AROUND 7 FEET.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS OF 7 FEET. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ130-
     132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/61






000
FXUS64 KBRO 241148
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
548 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SLICING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CAMERON COUNTY WITH DENSE FOG REMAINING OVER THE BRO TERMINAL
CURRENTLY WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING AT THE HRL TERMINAL.
FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE BRO TERMINAL AROUND 12Z WITH
VIS/CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH 13Z. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO
BRO/HRL TERMINALS BY 1330Z. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH DECREASING WINDS
TOWARDS SUNSET. SHOULD EXPERIENCE PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID CLOUDS AS THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY IN THESE LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO COVER ALL THE COASTAL AREAS AND GULF WATERS 0-20NM
EAST OF THE COASTLINE. DENSE MARINE FOG ADVECTED IN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAS CONTINUED ITS N-NW PROGRESSION EVEN
REACHING EASTERN HIDALGO COUNTY. DID ALSO EXTEND THE TIMING
THROUGH 12Z BASED ON THE HRRR NOT BRINGING FROPA THROUGH THE LOWER
VALLEY TILL 12Z AND STRONGER WINDS NOT UNTIL 14Z. SPEAKING OF THE
FRONT...11-3.9 MICRON SHOWS THE FRONT CLEARLY THROUGH MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS AS A FINE LINE OF LOWER STRATUS WITH KRKP AND KCRP
WIND DIRECTIONS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST. EXTRAPOLATING USING
CURRENT SPEED PLACES THE FRONT IN THE LOWER VALLEY BY 12Z MATCHING
UP WITH THE HRRR.

NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG THE COAST THE WINDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MORE INLAND AREAS. WILL BE A NICE AND COOL DAY TODAY
WITH A SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S IN THE RANCHLANDS TO LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEY. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT THEN SINK SOUTHWARDS ON
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS CLOUDS AROUND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS UNTIL THE 500MB TROUGH UPSTREAM SWINGS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MET/MAV TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CAME IN COOLER SO
TRENDED OUR TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO ESPECIALLY IN
OUTLYING AREAS. TUESDAY HIGHS ARE A REPEAT OF TODAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY QUIET AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
PRIOR FORECAST. ALL IN ALL A MILD AND FAIRLY DRY WEEK IS IN THE
WORKS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH FLOW ALOFT VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING DRY AIR OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE
WEEK AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS. A 500 MB TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND SLOWLY NUDGES EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE WEAK TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE. STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL ROUGHEN SEAS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ROUGH SEAS WILL BECOME MORE MODERATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY
SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO INVADE AT LEAST THE 20-60NM WATERS
TUESDAY AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS RISING BACK UP
TO AROUND 7 FEET.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS OF 7 FEET. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     TXZ254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ130-
     132-135.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR GMZ130-
     132-150.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55







000
FXUS64 KBRO 241148
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
548 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SLICING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CAMERON COUNTY WITH DENSE FOG REMAINING OVER THE BRO TERMINAL
CURRENTLY WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING AT THE HRL TERMINAL.
FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE BRO TERMINAL AROUND 12Z WITH
VIS/CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH 13Z. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO
BRO/HRL TERMINALS BY 1330Z. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH DECREASING WINDS
TOWARDS SUNSET. SHOULD EXPERIENCE PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID CLOUDS AS THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY IN THESE LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO COVER ALL THE COASTAL AREAS AND GULF WATERS 0-20NM
EAST OF THE COASTLINE. DENSE MARINE FOG ADVECTED IN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAS CONTINUED ITS N-NW PROGRESSION EVEN
REACHING EASTERN HIDALGO COUNTY. DID ALSO EXTEND THE TIMING
THROUGH 12Z BASED ON THE HRRR NOT BRINGING FROPA THROUGH THE LOWER
VALLEY TILL 12Z AND STRONGER WINDS NOT UNTIL 14Z. SPEAKING OF THE
FRONT...11-3.9 MICRON SHOWS THE FRONT CLEARLY THROUGH MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS AS A FINE LINE OF LOWER STRATUS WITH KRKP AND KCRP
WIND DIRECTIONS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST. EXTRAPOLATING USING
CURRENT SPEED PLACES THE FRONT IN THE LOWER VALLEY BY 12Z MATCHING
UP WITH THE HRRR.

NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG THE COAST THE WINDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MORE INLAND AREAS. WILL BE A NICE AND COOL DAY TODAY
WITH A SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S IN THE RANCHLANDS TO LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEY. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT THEN SINK SOUTHWARDS ON
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS CLOUDS AROUND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS UNTIL THE 500MB TROUGH UPSTREAM SWINGS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MET/MAV TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CAME IN COOLER SO
TRENDED OUR TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO ESPECIALLY IN
OUTLYING AREAS. TUESDAY HIGHS ARE A REPEAT OF TODAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY QUIET AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
PRIOR FORECAST. ALL IN ALL A MILD AND FAIRLY DRY WEEK IS IN THE
WORKS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH FLOW ALOFT VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING DRY AIR OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE
WEEK AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS. A 500 MB TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND SLOWLY NUDGES EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE WEAK TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE. STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL ROUGHEN SEAS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ROUGH SEAS WILL BECOME MORE MODERATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY
SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO INVADE AT LEAST THE 20-60NM WATERS
TUESDAY AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS RISING BACK UP
TO AROUND 7 FEET.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS OF 7 FEET. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     TXZ254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ130-
     132-135.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR GMZ130-
     132-150.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55






000
FXUS64 KBRO 240949
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
349 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO COVER ALL THE COASTAL AREAS AND GULF WATERS 0-20NM
EAST OF THE COASTLINE. DENSE MARINE FOG ADVECTED IN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAS CONTINUED ITS N-NW PROGRESSION EVEN
REACHING EASTERN HIDALGO COUNTY. DID ALSO EXTEND THE TIMING
THROUGH 12Z BASED ON THE HRRR NOT BRINGING FROPA THROUGH THE LOWER
VALLEY TILL 12Z AND STRONGER WINDS NOT UNTIL 14Z. SPEAKING OF THE
FRONT...11-3.9 MICRON SHOWS THE FRONT CLEARLY THROUGH MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS AS A FINE LINE OF LOWER STRATUS WITH KRKP AND KCRP
WIND DIRECTIONS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST. EXTRAPOLATING USING
CURRENT SPEED PLACES THE FRONT IN THE LOWER VALLEY BY 12Z MATCHING
UP WITH THE HRRR.

NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG THE COAST THE WINDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MORE INLAND AREAS. WILL BE A NICE AND COOL DAY TODAY
WITH A SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S IN THE RANCHLANDS TO LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEY. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT THEN SINK SOUTHWARDS ON
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS CLOUDS AROUND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS UNTIL THE 500MB TROUGH UPSTREAM SWINGS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MET/MAV TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CAME IN COOLER SO
TRENDED OUR TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO ESPECIALLY IN
OUTLYING AREAS. TUESDAY HIGHS ARE A REPEAT OF TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY QUIET AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
PRIOR FORECAST. ALL IN ALL A MILD AND FAIRLY DRY WEEK IS IN THE
WORKS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH FLOW ALOFT VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING DRY AIR OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE
WEEK AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS. A 500 MB TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND SLOWLY NUDGES EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE WEAK TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE. STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL ROUGHEN SEAS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ROUGH SEAS WILL BECOME MORE MODERATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY
SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO INVADE AT LEAST THE 20-60NM WATERS
TUESDAY AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS RISING BACK UP
TO AROUND 7 FEET.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS OF 7 FEET. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  51  70  49 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          72  51  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            70  48  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              71  47  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      71  47  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   70  57  70  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TXZ251-
     254>257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR GMZ130-
     132-135-150-155.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/58/CAMPBELL






000
FXUS64 KBRO 240949
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
349 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO COVER ALL THE COASTAL AREAS AND GULF WATERS 0-20NM
EAST OF THE COASTLINE. DENSE MARINE FOG ADVECTED IN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAS CONTINUED ITS N-NW PROGRESSION EVEN
REACHING EASTERN HIDALGO COUNTY. DID ALSO EXTEND THE TIMING
THROUGH 12Z BASED ON THE HRRR NOT BRINGING FROPA THROUGH THE LOWER
VALLEY TILL 12Z AND STRONGER WINDS NOT UNTIL 14Z. SPEAKING OF THE
FRONT...11-3.9 MICRON SHOWS THE FRONT CLEARLY THROUGH MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS AS A FINE LINE OF LOWER STRATUS WITH KRKP AND KCRP
WIND DIRECTIONS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST. EXTRAPOLATING USING
CURRENT SPEED PLACES THE FRONT IN THE LOWER VALLEY BY 12Z MATCHING
UP WITH THE HRRR.

NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG THE COAST THE WINDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MORE INLAND AREAS. WILL BE A NICE AND COOL DAY TODAY
WITH A SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S IN THE RANCHLANDS TO LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEY. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT THEN SINK SOUTHWARDS ON
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS CLOUDS AROUND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS UNTIL THE 500MB TROUGH UPSTREAM SWINGS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MET/MAV TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CAME IN COOLER SO
TRENDED OUR TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO ESPECIALLY IN
OUTLYING AREAS. TUESDAY HIGHS ARE A REPEAT OF TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY QUIET AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
PRIOR FORECAST. ALL IN ALL A MILD AND FAIRLY DRY WEEK IS IN THE
WORKS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH FLOW ALOFT VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING DRY AIR OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE
WEEK AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS. A 500 MB TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND SLOWLY NUDGES EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE WEAK TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE. STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL ROUGHEN SEAS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ROUGH SEAS WILL BECOME MORE MODERATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY
SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO INVADE AT LEAST THE 20-60NM WATERS
TUESDAY AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS RISING BACK UP
TO AROUND 7 FEET.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS OF 7 FEET. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  51  70  49 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          72  51  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            70  48  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              71  47  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      71  47  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   70  57  70  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TXZ251-
     254>257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR GMZ130-
     132-135-150-155.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/58/CAMPBELL







000
FXUS64 KBRO 240949
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
349 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO COVER ALL THE COASTAL AREAS AND GULF WATERS 0-20NM
EAST OF THE COASTLINE. DENSE MARINE FOG ADVECTED IN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAS CONTINUED ITS N-NW PROGRESSION EVEN
REACHING EASTERN HIDALGO COUNTY. DID ALSO EXTEND THE TIMING
THROUGH 12Z BASED ON THE HRRR NOT BRINGING FROPA THROUGH THE LOWER
VALLEY TILL 12Z AND STRONGER WINDS NOT UNTIL 14Z. SPEAKING OF THE
FRONT...11-3.9 MICRON SHOWS THE FRONT CLEARLY THROUGH MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS AS A FINE LINE OF LOWER STRATUS WITH KRKP AND KCRP
WIND DIRECTIONS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST. EXTRAPOLATING USING
CURRENT SPEED PLACES THE FRONT IN THE LOWER VALLEY BY 12Z MATCHING
UP WITH THE HRRR.

NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG THE COAST THE WINDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MORE INLAND AREAS. WILL BE A NICE AND COOL DAY TODAY
WITH A SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S IN THE RANCHLANDS TO LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEY. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT THEN SINK SOUTHWARDS ON
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS CLOUDS AROUND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS UNTIL THE 500MB TROUGH UPSTREAM SWINGS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MET/MAV TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CAME IN COOLER SO
TRENDED OUR TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO ESPECIALLY IN
OUTLYING AREAS. TUESDAY HIGHS ARE A REPEAT OF TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY QUIET AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
PRIOR FORECAST. ALL IN ALL A MILD AND FAIRLY DRY WEEK IS IN THE
WORKS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH FLOW ALOFT VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING DRY AIR OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE
WEEK AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS. A 500 MB TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND SLOWLY NUDGES EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE WEAK TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE. STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL ROUGHEN SEAS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ROUGH SEAS WILL BECOME MORE MODERATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY
SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO INVADE AT LEAST THE 20-60NM WATERS
TUESDAY AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS RISING BACK UP
TO AROUND 7 FEET.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS OF 7 FEET. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  51  70  49 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          72  51  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            70  48  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              71  47  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      71  47  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   70  57  70  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TXZ251-
     254>257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR GMZ130-
     132-135-150-155.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/58/CAMPBELL






000
FXUS64 KBRO 240949
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
349 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO COVER ALL THE COASTAL AREAS AND GULF WATERS 0-20NM
EAST OF THE COASTLINE. DENSE MARINE FOG ADVECTED IN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAS CONTINUED ITS N-NW PROGRESSION EVEN
REACHING EASTERN HIDALGO COUNTY. DID ALSO EXTEND THE TIMING
THROUGH 12Z BASED ON THE HRRR NOT BRINGING FROPA THROUGH THE LOWER
VALLEY TILL 12Z AND STRONGER WINDS NOT UNTIL 14Z. SPEAKING OF THE
FRONT...11-3.9 MICRON SHOWS THE FRONT CLEARLY THROUGH MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS AS A FINE LINE OF LOWER STRATUS WITH KRKP AND KCRP
WIND DIRECTIONS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST. EXTRAPOLATING USING
CURRENT SPEED PLACES THE FRONT IN THE LOWER VALLEY BY 12Z MATCHING
UP WITH THE HRRR.

NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG THE COAST THE WINDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MORE INLAND AREAS. WILL BE A NICE AND COOL DAY TODAY
WITH A SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S IN THE RANCHLANDS TO LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEY. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT THEN SINK SOUTHWARDS ON
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS CLOUDS AROUND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS UNTIL THE 500MB TROUGH UPSTREAM SWINGS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MET/MAV TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CAME IN COOLER SO
TRENDED OUR TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO ESPECIALLY IN
OUTLYING AREAS. TUESDAY HIGHS ARE A REPEAT OF TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY QUIET AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
PRIOR FORECAST. ALL IN ALL A MILD AND FAIRLY DRY WEEK IS IN THE
WORKS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH FLOW ALOFT VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING DRY AIR OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE
WEEK AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS. A 500 MB TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND SLOWLY NUDGES EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE WEAK TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE. STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL ROUGHEN SEAS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ROUGH SEAS WILL BECOME MORE MODERATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY
SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO INVADE AT LEAST THE 20-60NM WATERS
TUESDAY AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS RISING BACK UP
TO AROUND 7 FEET.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS OF 7 FEET. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  51  70  49 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          72  51  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            70  48  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              71  47  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      71  47  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   70  57  70  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TXZ251-
     254>257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR GMZ130-
     132-135-150-155.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/58/CAMPBELL







000
FXUS64 KBRO 240533 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1133 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...SURFACE OBS AND IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A
DECK OF MARINE FOG IS MOVING INLAND OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO POST A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR BOTH COUNTIES UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED UP OVER THE BRO AIRPORT
THIS EVENING REDUCING CONDITIONS DOWN TO LIFR LEVELS. THIS DENSER
FOG MAY LINGER ON THROUGH AROUND 10 TO 11Z MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
THEN DISSIPATE AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
USHERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH. SOME DENSER FOG MAY EDGE INTO
THE HRL AREA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE BUT BELIEVE
MFE MAY ESCAPE THE DENSER FOG DUE TO ITS MORE WESTWARD ORIENTATION.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION ANY RESIDUAL FOG WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE 00Z TAF SET. HOWEVER LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE RGV THIS EVENING WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE. AT THIS POINT THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A
VERY DRY ATMS OVER THE REGION WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 0.48 INCHES. ANY
FOG THAT DOES FORM WOULD BE LIGHT AND WOULD LIKELY BE PRETTY
SHALLOW. SO WILL MENTION SOME LIGHT FOG FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH HERE AROUND 12Z MON. AFTER THE FROPA THE DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...A NICE...AND DRYER DAY
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE MID 80S
AMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S AND A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BREEZE. A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS IS NUDGING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EASTWARD THAT WILL SEND A FRONT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
WILL NOT BE MARKED BY ANOTHER MODEST DRYING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S NORTH...MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES BUT MOST OF THAT SHOULD BE CLEARED
OUT BEFORE THE AM COMMUTE.

MONDAY...A COOL NORTH BREEZE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 DEGREES. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS FALLING OFF IN THE EVENING AND ONLY
A FEW HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS A COOL NIGHT IS FORECAST WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S NORTH...AND AROUND 50 TO 53 IN THE RGV METRO AREAS.
/68-JGG/

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS WEST TEXAS TUESDAY WILL SWING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
SETTLES INTO SOUTH TX IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
SOUTH TX WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK 500MB TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO/WEST TX THURSDAY. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AND
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A RESULT.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST
TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING A FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE COAST. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL ROUGHEN SEAS AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ROUGH SEAS WILL
BECOME MORE MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PROVIDES A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TUESDAY
AS A RESULT.THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WEDNESDAY WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  58  72  55  71 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          57  73  54  72 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            55  72  51  72 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              56  73  52  72 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      53  72  48  71 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   66  72  61  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ254>257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ130-132-150.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...51








000
FXUS64 KBRO 240533 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1133 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...SURFACE OBS AND IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A
DECK OF MARINE FOG IS MOVING INLAND OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO POST A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR BOTH COUNTIES UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED UP OVER THE BRO AIRPORT
THIS EVENING REDUCING CONDITIONS DOWN TO LIFR LEVELS. THIS DENSER
FOG MAY LINGER ON THROUGH AROUND 10 TO 11Z MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
THEN DISSIPATE AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
USHERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH. SOME DENSER FOG MAY EDGE INTO
THE HRL AREA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE BUT BELIEVE
MFE MAY ESCAPE THE DENSER FOG DUE TO ITS MORE WESTWARD ORIENTATION.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION ANY RESIDUAL FOG WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE 00Z TAF SET. HOWEVER LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE RGV THIS EVENING WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE. AT THIS POINT THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A
VERY DRY ATMS OVER THE REGION WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 0.48 INCHES. ANY
FOG THAT DOES FORM WOULD BE LIGHT AND WOULD LIKELY BE PRETTY
SHALLOW. SO WILL MENTION SOME LIGHT FOG FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH HERE AROUND 12Z MON. AFTER THE FROPA THE DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...A NICE...AND DRYER DAY
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE MID 80S
AMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S AND A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BREEZE. A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS IS NUDGING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EASTWARD THAT WILL SEND A FRONT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
WILL NOT BE MARKED BY ANOTHER MODEST DRYING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S NORTH...MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES BUT MOST OF THAT SHOULD BE CLEARED
OUT BEFORE THE AM COMMUTE.

MONDAY...A COOL NORTH BREEZE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 DEGREES. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS FALLING OFF IN THE EVENING AND ONLY
A FEW HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS A COOL NIGHT IS FORECAST WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S NORTH...AND AROUND 50 TO 53 IN THE RGV METRO AREAS.
/68-JGG/

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS WEST TEXAS TUESDAY WILL SWING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
SETTLES INTO SOUTH TX IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
SOUTH TX WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK 500MB TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO/WEST TX THURSDAY. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AND
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A RESULT.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST
TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING A FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE COAST. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL ROUGHEN SEAS AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ROUGH SEAS WILL
BECOME MORE MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PROVIDES A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TUESDAY
AS A RESULT.THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WEDNESDAY WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  58  72  55  71 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          57  73  54  72 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            55  72  51  72 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              56  73  52  72 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      53  72  48  71 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   66  72  61  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ254>257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ130-132-150.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...51







000
FXUS64 KBRO 240049 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
649 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE 00Z TAF SET. HOWEVER LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE RGV THIS EVENING WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE. AT THIS POINT THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A
VERY DRY ATMS OVER THE REGION WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 0.48 INCHES. ANY
FOG THAT DOES FORM WOULD BE LIGHT AND WOULD LIKELY BE PRETTY
SHALLOW. SO WILL MENTION SOME LIGHT FOG FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH HERE AROUND 12Z MON. AFTER THE FROPA THE DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...A NICE...AND DRYER DAY
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE MID 80S
AMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S AND A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BREEZE. A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS IS NUDGING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EASTWARD THAT WILL SEND A FRONT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
WILL NOT BE MARKED BY ANOTHER MODEST DRYING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S NORTH...MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES BUT MOST OF THAT SHOULD BE CLEARED
OUT BEFORE THE AM COMMUTE.

MONDAY...A COOL NORTH BREEZE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 DEGREES. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS FALLING OFF IN THE EVENING AND ONLY
A FEW HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS A COOL NIGHT IS FORECAST WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S NORTH...AND AROUND 50 TO 53 IN THE RGV METRO AREAS.
/68-JGG/

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS WEST TEXAS TUESDAY WILL SWING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
SETTLES INTO SOUTH TX IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
SOUTH TX WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK 500MB TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO/WEST TX THURSDAY. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AND
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A RESULT.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST
TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING A FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE COAST. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL ROUGHEN SEAS AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ROUGH SEAS WILL
BECOME MORE MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PROVIDES A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TUESDAY
AS A RESULT.THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WEDNESDAY WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  58  72  55  71 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          57  73  54  72 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            55  72  51  72 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              56  73  52  72 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      53  72  48  71 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   66  72  61  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...51
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ





000
FXUS64 KBRO 240049 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
649 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE 00Z TAF SET. HOWEVER LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE RGV THIS EVENING WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE. AT THIS POINT THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A
VERY DRY ATMS OVER THE REGION WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 0.48 INCHES. ANY
FOG THAT DOES FORM WOULD BE LIGHT AND WOULD LIKELY BE PRETTY
SHALLOW. SO WILL MENTION SOME LIGHT FOG FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH HERE AROUND 12Z MON. AFTER THE FROPA THE DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...A NICE...AND DRYER DAY
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE MID 80S
AMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S AND A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BREEZE. A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS IS NUDGING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EASTWARD THAT WILL SEND A FRONT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
WILL NOT BE MARKED BY ANOTHER MODEST DRYING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S NORTH...MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES BUT MOST OF THAT SHOULD BE CLEARED
OUT BEFORE THE AM COMMUTE.

MONDAY...A COOL NORTH BREEZE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 DEGREES. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS FALLING OFF IN THE EVENING AND ONLY
A FEW HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS A COOL NIGHT IS FORECAST WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S NORTH...AND AROUND 50 TO 53 IN THE RGV METRO AREAS.
/68-JGG/

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS WEST TEXAS TUESDAY WILL SWING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
SETTLES INTO SOUTH TX IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
SOUTH TX WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK 500MB TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO/WEST TX THURSDAY. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AND
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A RESULT.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST
TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING A FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE COAST. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL ROUGHEN SEAS AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ROUGH SEAS WILL
BECOME MORE MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PROVIDES A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TUESDAY
AS A RESULT.THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WEDNESDAY WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  58  72  55  71 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          57  73  54  72 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            55  72  51  72 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              56  73  52  72 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      53  72  48  71 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   66  72  61  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...51
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 232045
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
245 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...A NICE...AND DRYER DAY
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE MID 80S
AMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S AND A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BREEZE. A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS IS NUDGING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EASTWARD THAT WILL SEND A FRONT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
WILL NOT BE MARKED BY ANOTHER MODEST DRYING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S NORTH...MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES BUT MOST OF THAT SHOULD BE CLEARED
OUT BEFORE THE AM COMMUTE.

MONDAY...A COOL NORTH BREEZE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 DEGREES. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS FALLING OFF IN THE EVENING AND ONLY
A FEW HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS A COOL NIGHT IS FORECAST WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S NORTH...AND AROUND 50 TO 53 IN THE RGV METRO AREAS.
/68-JGG/

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS WEST TEXAS TUESDAY WILL SWING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
SETTLES INTO SOUTH TX IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
SOUTH TX WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK 500MB TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO/WEST TX THURSDAY. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AND
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST
TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING A FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE COAST. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL ROUGHEN SEAS AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ROUGH SEAS WILL
BECOME MORE MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PROVIDES A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TUESDAY AS A RESULT.THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
EASTWARD. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A RESULT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  58  72  55  71 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          57  73  54  72 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            55  72  51  72 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              56  73  52  72 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      53  72  48  71 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   66  72  61  71 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/61/MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 232045
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
245 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...A NICE...AND DRYER DAY
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE MID 80S
AMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S AND A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BREEZE. A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS IS NUDGING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EASTWARD THAT WILL SEND A FRONT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
WILL NOT BE MARKED BY ANOTHER MODEST DRYING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S NORTH...MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES BUT MOST OF THAT SHOULD BE CLEARED
OUT BEFORE THE AM COMMUTE.

MONDAY...A COOL NORTH BREEZE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 DEGREES. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS FALLING OFF IN THE EVENING AND ONLY
A FEW HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS A COOL NIGHT IS FORECAST WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S NORTH...AND AROUND 50 TO 53 IN THE RGV METRO AREAS.
/68-JGG/

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS WEST TEXAS TUESDAY WILL SWING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
SETTLES INTO SOUTH TX IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
SOUTH TX WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK 500MB TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO/WEST TX THURSDAY. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AND
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST
TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING A FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE COAST. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL ROUGHEN SEAS AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ROUGH SEAS WILL
BECOME MORE MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PROVIDES A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TUESDAY AS A RESULT.THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
EASTWARD. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A RESULT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  58  72  55  71 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          57  73  54  72 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            55  72  51  72 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              56  73  52  72 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      53  72  48  71 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   66  72  61  71 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/61/MARTINEZ







000
FXUS64 KBRO 231719
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1119 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING FOG HAS LIFTED AND MIXED OUT SETTING UP A DAY
OF FAVORABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF ANOTHER FOG EVENT THIS MORNING AND A
SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS WILL RESULT IN A
SHIFTING OF WINDS TO THE NORTH BY AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY WHICH
WILL FURTHER ELIMINATE ANY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OR FOG. EXPECTING VFR
FOR NOW. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT THE AIR TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 14-15Z. VLIFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOP AND CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN. DRIER AIR AND INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO ALLOW FOR
THE FOG TO BURN OFFSHORE AFTER 15Z FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...IF YOU COULDN`T STAND THE
WEATHER THE LAST FEW DAYS IT WILL BE A CLEAR DAY ALL AROUND DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.

SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER OKLAHOMA TODAY MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH DRIER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN
ADVANCE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
TODAY. THE FRONT ARRIVES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT MOVING
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

TODAY...RESIDUAL MORNING FOG...SOME DENSE...BURNS OFF AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM. WESTERLY WIND AND SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT AND 850MB TEMPS
REACHING 18-20C WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SUNNY, WARM AND DRY DAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 84-90 DEGREES AND CURRENT FORECAST IS WITHIN
THIS RANGE.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A STEADY FALL
IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. SLOW AT FIRST BUT THAN A MORE RAPID DROP
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 3 AND 7 AM. EXPECTING AT
LEAST A 10 DEGREE DROP OVER THIS MORNING LOWS WITH UPPER 40S TO MID
50S MOST LOCATIONS WITH EXCEPTION TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE NEAR
60 DEGREE IS LIKELY.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
SETTLING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST GULF BY THE END OF THE
DAY. SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PUSH TEMPERATURES
DOWN AROUND 12-16 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY`S ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY/...LITTLE HAS CHANGED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS REGARDING THE HOLIDAY WEEK FORECAST. FOR THE MOST
PART...CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER FOR TRAVELERS ESPECIALLY THOSE
WANTING TO GET AWAY FROM THE EARLY SEASON CHILL THAT HAS GRIPPED THE
UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF NOVEMBER. THE
CRITICAL TRAVEL PERIOD FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LOOKS AS CLOSE TO PERFECT AS ONE CAN GET FOR THE ENTIRE STATE OF
TEXAS.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL
FORECASTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MAINLY WITH TEMPERATURE AND
PERHAPS CLOUD COVER.  GFS REMAINS THE MILDEST BY TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY 6 TO 9 DEGREES HIGHER THAN BOTH THE NAM AND THE
ECMWF. CURRENT FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS...AND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SOME MULTI-LAYER CLOUD DECKS TO INSULATE THINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALL AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH (POSITIVE TILT) THAT DIGS
INTO TEXAS ON TUESDAY...SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE GOING FORECAST
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S RANCHLANDS AND 50-55 VALLEY.

AS FOR TUESDAY...WITH UPPER TROUGH DIGGING AND SWINGING
THROUGH...1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FALL TO FAIRLY RARE LEVELS THIS
FAR SOUTH. GFS ON THE HIGHER SIDE WITH VALUES AT 550 TO 558 DM FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AT MIDDAY WHILE ECMWF AT 546 TO 552 DM.  AT THE SAME
TIME...GFS POKES SOME VERTICAL MOTION AND THICKER LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER VALLEY FOR THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
ACCOMPANIED BY THE BRISK NORTH WIND. GFS SATURATES COLUMN IN THE
LOWER AND PERHAPS MID VALLEY BETWEEN 825 AND 650 MB...AND WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOT SUPER DRY COMPARED WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND WILL ADD A 20 PERCENT CHANCE TO CAMERON AND THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH NOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NO REASON TO
ADJUST CURRENT FORECAST WHICH LEANS TOWARD THE COOLER LEVELS. MAY
NUDGE THE LOWER VALLEY DOWNWARD BASED ON CLOUD COVER THROUGH NOON OR
SO...BUT ONLY A HAIR SINCE FULL SUNSHINE RETURNS QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

NORTH WINDS WILL LAY DOWN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LEADING TO THE CHILLIEST
MORNING OF THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY...AND SEE GOOD REASON TO NUDGE LOWS
DOWN TOWARD THE COOLER ECMWF WITH A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
RANCHLANDS AND 40 TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
PRIMO DAY OF THE WEEK...NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY...LIGHT WINDS...AND
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 70S.

CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER CHILL DOWN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK SHOULD
MODERATE LOWS JUST A HAIR UPWARD. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
ENOUGH MOISTURE AT BASE OF INVERSION (3500 FEET OR SO) FOR FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS BY NOON IN THE LOWER/MID VALLEY BUT CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. A PERFECT DAY TO GET OUT AND BASK IN THE
THANKSGIVING DAY WARMTH WHICH MAY APPROACH 80 AWAY FROM THE COAST
NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW GRADUALLY RETURNS HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH IT WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND RGV BUT STILL RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.  SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE HUMID WITH A
FEW MORE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ALONG/NEAR US 77...BUT NOTHING MORE
THAN SCATTERED FARTHER WEST. LITTLE CHANGE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR ALL BUT THE COAST.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY....
MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN
WAKE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SO WILL DROP ALL ADVISORIES. THE
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY TURNS BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 3 AND 7 AM MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH. BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO SPREAD THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH
MARGINAL CONDITIONS ON THE LAGUNA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BECOME A BIT STRONGER AND ROUGHER TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY A 1026+
HIGH THAT QUICKLY SCOOTS INTO SOUTH TEXAS WHILE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. WILL BUMP WINDS/SEAS ANOTHER NOTCH...WITH SEAS
PERHAPS TOUCHING 7 TO 8 FEET FOR A LITTLE WHILE ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE A FAIRLY QUICK SUBSIDENCE
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLACKEN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER LAGUNA MADRE BAY.  EITHER WAY...EARLY
ARRIVERS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHO WANT TO GET IN A FISHING TRIP
SHOULD HAVE EXCELLENT CONDITIONS THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH PERHAPS
SOME RESIDUAL ROUGHNESS WEDNESDAY MORNING OFFSHORE UNTIL THE SWELL
SUBSIDES.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/61






000
FXUS64 KBRO 231719
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1119 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING FOG HAS LIFTED AND MIXED OUT SETTING UP A DAY
OF FAVORABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF ANOTHER FOG EVENT THIS MORNING AND A
SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS WILL RESULT IN A
SHIFTING OF WINDS TO THE NORTH BY AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY WHICH
WILL FURTHER ELIMINATE ANY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OR FOG. EXPECTING VFR
FOR NOW. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT THE AIR TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 14-15Z. VLIFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOP AND CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN. DRIER AIR AND INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO ALLOW FOR
THE FOG TO BURN OFFSHORE AFTER 15Z FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...IF YOU COULDN`T STAND THE
WEATHER THE LAST FEW DAYS IT WILL BE A CLEAR DAY ALL AROUND DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.

SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER OKLAHOMA TODAY MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH DRIER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN
ADVANCE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
TODAY. THE FRONT ARRIVES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT MOVING
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

TODAY...RESIDUAL MORNING FOG...SOME DENSE...BURNS OFF AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM. WESTERLY WIND AND SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT AND 850MB TEMPS
REACHING 18-20C WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SUNNY, WARM AND DRY DAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 84-90 DEGREES AND CURRENT FORECAST IS WITHIN
THIS RANGE.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A STEADY FALL
IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. SLOW AT FIRST BUT THAN A MORE RAPID DROP
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 3 AND 7 AM. EXPECTING AT
LEAST A 10 DEGREE DROP OVER THIS MORNING LOWS WITH UPPER 40S TO MID
50S MOST LOCATIONS WITH EXCEPTION TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE NEAR
60 DEGREE IS LIKELY.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
SETTLING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST GULF BY THE END OF THE
DAY. SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PUSH TEMPERATURES
DOWN AROUND 12-16 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY`S ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY/...LITTLE HAS CHANGED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS REGARDING THE HOLIDAY WEEK FORECAST. FOR THE MOST
PART...CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER FOR TRAVELERS ESPECIALLY THOSE
WANTING TO GET AWAY FROM THE EARLY SEASON CHILL THAT HAS GRIPPED THE
UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF NOVEMBER. THE
CRITICAL TRAVEL PERIOD FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LOOKS AS CLOSE TO PERFECT AS ONE CAN GET FOR THE ENTIRE STATE OF
TEXAS.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL
FORECASTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MAINLY WITH TEMPERATURE AND
PERHAPS CLOUD COVER.  GFS REMAINS THE MILDEST BY TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY 6 TO 9 DEGREES HIGHER THAN BOTH THE NAM AND THE
ECMWF. CURRENT FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS...AND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SOME MULTI-LAYER CLOUD DECKS TO INSULATE THINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALL AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH (POSITIVE TILT) THAT DIGS
INTO TEXAS ON TUESDAY...SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE GOING FORECAST
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S RANCHLANDS AND 50-55 VALLEY.

AS FOR TUESDAY...WITH UPPER TROUGH DIGGING AND SWINGING
THROUGH...1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FALL TO FAIRLY RARE LEVELS THIS
FAR SOUTH. GFS ON THE HIGHER SIDE WITH VALUES AT 550 TO 558 DM FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AT MIDDAY WHILE ECMWF AT 546 TO 552 DM.  AT THE SAME
TIME...GFS POKES SOME VERTICAL MOTION AND THICKER LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER VALLEY FOR THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
ACCOMPANIED BY THE BRISK NORTH WIND. GFS SATURATES COLUMN IN THE
LOWER AND PERHAPS MID VALLEY BETWEEN 825 AND 650 MB...AND WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOT SUPER DRY COMPARED WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND WILL ADD A 20 PERCENT CHANCE TO CAMERON AND THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH NOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NO REASON TO
ADJUST CURRENT FORECAST WHICH LEANS TOWARD THE COOLER LEVELS. MAY
NUDGE THE LOWER VALLEY DOWNWARD BASED ON CLOUD COVER THROUGH NOON OR
SO...BUT ONLY A HAIR SINCE FULL SUNSHINE RETURNS QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

NORTH WINDS WILL LAY DOWN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LEADING TO THE CHILLIEST
MORNING OF THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY...AND SEE GOOD REASON TO NUDGE LOWS
DOWN TOWARD THE COOLER ECMWF WITH A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
RANCHLANDS AND 40 TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
PRIMO DAY OF THE WEEK...NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY...LIGHT WINDS...AND
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 70S.

CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER CHILL DOWN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK SHOULD
MODERATE LOWS JUST A HAIR UPWARD. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
ENOUGH MOISTURE AT BASE OF INVERSION (3500 FEET OR SO) FOR FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS BY NOON IN THE LOWER/MID VALLEY BUT CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. A PERFECT DAY TO GET OUT AND BASK IN THE
THANKSGIVING DAY WARMTH WHICH MAY APPROACH 80 AWAY FROM THE COAST
NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW GRADUALLY RETURNS HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH IT WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND RGV BUT STILL RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.  SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE HUMID WITH A
FEW MORE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ALONG/NEAR US 77...BUT NOTHING MORE
THAN SCATTERED FARTHER WEST. LITTLE CHANGE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR ALL BUT THE COAST.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY....
MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN
WAKE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SO WILL DROP ALL ADVISORIES. THE
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY TURNS BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 3 AND 7 AM MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH. BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO SPREAD THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH
MARGINAL CONDITIONS ON THE LAGUNA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BECOME A BIT STRONGER AND ROUGHER TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY A 1026+
HIGH THAT QUICKLY SCOOTS INTO SOUTH TEXAS WHILE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. WILL BUMP WINDS/SEAS ANOTHER NOTCH...WITH SEAS
PERHAPS TOUCHING 7 TO 8 FEET FOR A LITTLE WHILE ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE A FAIRLY QUICK SUBSIDENCE
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLACKEN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER LAGUNA MADRE BAY.  EITHER WAY...EARLY
ARRIVERS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHO WANT TO GET IN A FISHING TRIP
SHOULD HAVE EXCELLENT CONDITIONS THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH PERHAPS
SOME RESIDUAL ROUGHNESS WEDNESDAY MORNING OFFSHORE UNTIL THE SWELL
SUBSIDES.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/61







000
FXUS64 KBRO 231138 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
538 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT THE AIR TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 14-15Z. VLIFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOP AND CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN. DRIER AIR AND INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO ALLOW FOR
THE FOG TO BURN OFFSHORE AFTER 15Z FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...IF YOU COULDN`T STAND THE
WEATHER THE LAST FEW DAYS IT WILL BE A CLEAR DAY ALL AROUND DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.

SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER OKLAHOMA TODAY MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH DRIER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN
ADVANCE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
TODAY. THE FRONT ARRIVES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT MOVING
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

TODAY...RESIDUAL MORNING FOG...SOME DENSE...BURNS OFF AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM. WESTERLY WIND AND SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT AND 850MB TEMPS
REACHING 18-20C WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SUNNY, WARM AND DRY DAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 84-90 DEGREES AND CURRENT FORECAST IS WITHIN
THIS RANGE.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A STEADY FALL
IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. SLOW AT FIRST BUT THAN A MORE RAPID DROP
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 3 AND 7 AM. EXPECTING AT
LEAST A 10 DEGREE DROP OVER THIS MORNING LOWS WITH UPPER 40S TO MID
50S MOST LOCATIONS WITH EXCEPTION TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE NEAR
60 DEGREE IS LIKELY.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
SETTLING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST GULF BY THE END OF THE
DAY. SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PUSH TEMPERATURES
DOWN AROUND 12-16 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY`S ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY/...LITTLE HAS CHANGED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS REGARDING THE HOLIDAY WEEK FORECAST. FOR THE MOST
PART...CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER FOR TRAVELERS ESPECIALLY THOSE
WANTING TO GET AWAY FROM THE EARLY SEASON CHILL THAT HAS GRIPPED THE
UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF NOVEMBER. THE
CRITICAL TRAVEL PERIOD FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LOOKS AS CLOSE TO PERFECT AS ONE CAN GET FOR THE ENTIRE STATE OF
TEXAS.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL
FORECASTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MAINLY WITH TEMPERATURE AND
PERHAPS CLOUD COVER.  GFS REMAINS THE MILDEST BY TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY 6 TO 9 DEGREES HIGHER THAN BOTH THE NAM AND THE
ECMWF. CURRENT FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS...AND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SOME MULTI-LAYER CLOUD DECKS TO INSULATE THINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALL AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH (POSITIVE TILT) THAT DIGS
INTO TEXAS ON TUESDAY...SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE GOING FORECAST
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S RANCHLANDS AND 50-55 VALLEY.

AS FOR TUESDAY...WITH UPPER TROUGH DIGGING AND SWINGING
THROUGH...1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FALL TO FAIRLY RARE LEVELS THIS
FAR SOUTH. GFS ON THE HIGHER SIDE WITH VALUES AT 550 TO 558 DM FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AT MIDDAY WHILE ECMWF AT 546 TO 552 DM.  AT THE SAME
TIME...GFS POKES SOME VERTICAL MOTION AND THICKER LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER VALLEY FOR THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
ACCOMPANIED BY THE BRISK NORTH WIND. GFS SATURATES COLUMN IN THE
LOWER AND PERHAPS MID VALLEY BETWEEN 825 AND 650 MB...AND WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOT SUPER DRY COMPARED WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND WILL ADD A 20 PERCENT CHANCE TO CAMERON AND THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH NOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NO REASON TO
ADJUST CURRENT FORECAST WHICH LEANS TOWARD THE COOLER LEVELS. MAY
NUDGE THE LOWER VALLEY DOWNWARD BASED ON CLOUD COVER THROUGH NOON OR
SO...BUT ONLY A HAIR SINCE FULL SUNSHINE RETURNS QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

NORTH WINDS WILL LAY DOWN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LEADING TO THE CHILLIEST
MORNING OF THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY...AND SEE GOOD REASON TO NUDGE LOWS
DOWN TOWARD THE COOLER ECMWF WITH A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
RANCHLANDS AND 40 TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
PRIMO DAY OF THE WEEK...NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY...LIGHT WINDS...AND
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 70S.

CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER CHILL DOWN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK SHOULD
MODERATE LOWS JUST A HAIR UPWARD. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
ENOUGH MOISTURE AT BASE OF INVERSION (3500 FEET OR SO) FOR FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS BY NOON IN THE LOWER/MID VALLEY BUT CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. A PERFECT DAY TO GET OUT AND BASK IN THE
THANKSGIVING DAY WARMTH WHICH MAY APPROACH 80 AWAY FROM THE COAST
NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW GRADUALLY RETURNS HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH IT WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND RGV BUT STILL RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.  SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE HUMID WITH A
FEW MORE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ALONG/NEAR US 77...BUT NOTHING MORE
THAN SCATTERED FARTHER WEST. LITTLE CHANGE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR ALL BUT THE COAST.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY....
MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN
WAKE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SO WILL DROP ALL ADVISORIES. THE
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY TURNS BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 3 AND 7 AM MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH. BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO SPREAD THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH
MARGINAL CONDITIONS ON THE LAGUNA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BECOME A BIT STRONGER AND ROUGHER TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY A 1026+
HIGH THAT QUICKLY SCOOTS INTO SOUTH TEXAS WHILE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. WILL BUMP WINDS/SEAS ANOTHER NOTCH...WITH SEAS
PERHAPS TOUCHING 7 TO 8 FEET FOR A LITTLE WHILE ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE A FAIRLY QUICK SUBSIDENCE
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLACKEN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER LAGUNA MADRE BAY.  EITHER WAY...EARLY
ARRIVERS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHO WANT TO GET IN A FISHING TRIP
SHOULD HAVE EXCELLENT CONDITIONS THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH PERHAPS
SOME RESIDUAL ROUGHNESS WEDNESDAY MORNING OFFSHORE UNTIL THE SWELL
SUBSIDES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  83  58  72  55 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          84  57  73  54 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            85  55  72  51 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              87  56  73  52 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  53  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  66  72  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ250>257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/52






000
FXUS64 KBRO 231138 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
538 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT THE AIR TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 14-15Z. VLIFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOP AND CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN. DRIER AIR AND INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO ALLOW FOR
THE FOG TO BURN OFFSHORE AFTER 15Z FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...IF YOU COULDN`T STAND THE
WEATHER THE LAST FEW DAYS IT WILL BE A CLEAR DAY ALL AROUND DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.

SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER OKLAHOMA TODAY MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH DRIER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN
ADVANCE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
TODAY. THE FRONT ARRIVES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT MOVING
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

TODAY...RESIDUAL MORNING FOG...SOME DENSE...BURNS OFF AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM. WESTERLY WIND AND SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT AND 850MB TEMPS
REACHING 18-20C WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SUNNY, WARM AND DRY DAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 84-90 DEGREES AND CURRENT FORECAST IS WITHIN
THIS RANGE.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A STEADY FALL
IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. SLOW AT FIRST BUT THAN A MORE RAPID DROP
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 3 AND 7 AM. EXPECTING AT
LEAST A 10 DEGREE DROP OVER THIS MORNING LOWS WITH UPPER 40S TO MID
50S MOST LOCATIONS WITH EXCEPTION TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE NEAR
60 DEGREE IS LIKELY.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
SETTLING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST GULF BY THE END OF THE
DAY. SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PUSH TEMPERATURES
DOWN AROUND 12-16 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY`S ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY/...LITTLE HAS CHANGED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS REGARDING THE HOLIDAY WEEK FORECAST. FOR THE MOST
PART...CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER FOR TRAVELERS ESPECIALLY THOSE
WANTING TO GET AWAY FROM THE EARLY SEASON CHILL THAT HAS GRIPPED THE
UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF NOVEMBER. THE
CRITICAL TRAVEL PERIOD FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LOOKS AS CLOSE TO PERFECT AS ONE CAN GET FOR THE ENTIRE STATE OF
TEXAS.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL
FORECASTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MAINLY WITH TEMPERATURE AND
PERHAPS CLOUD COVER.  GFS REMAINS THE MILDEST BY TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY 6 TO 9 DEGREES HIGHER THAN BOTH THE NAM AND THE
ECMWF. CURRENT FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS...AND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SOME MULTI-LAYER CLOUD DECKS TO INSULATE THINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALL AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH (POSITIVE TILT) THAT DIGS
INTO TEXAS ON TUESDAY...SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE GOING FORECAST
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S RANCHLANDS AND 50-55 VALLEY.

AS FOR TUESDAY...WITH UPPER TROUGH DIGGING AND SWINGING
THROUGH...1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FALL TO FAIRLY RARE LEVELS THIS
FAR SOUTH. GFS ON THE HIGHER SIDE WITH VALUES AT 550 TO 558 DM FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AT MIDDAY WHILE ECMWF AT 546 TO 552 DM.  AT THE SAME
TIME...GFS POKES SOME VERTICAL MOTION AND THICKER LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER VALLEY FOR THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
ACCOMPANIED BY THE BRISK NORTH WIND. GFS SATURATES COLUMN IN THE
LOWER AND PERHAPS MID VALLEY BETWEEN 825 AND 650 MB...AND WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOT SUPER DRY COMPARED WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND WILL ADD A 20 PERCENT CHANCE TO CAMERON AND THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH NOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NO REASON TO
ADJUST CURRENT FORECAST WHICH LEANS TOWARD THE COOLER LEVELS. MAY
NUDGE THE LOWER VALLEY DOWNWARD BASED ON CLOUD COVER THROUGH NOON OR
SO...BUT ONLY A HAIR SINCE FULL SUNSHINE RETURNS QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

NORTH WINDS WILL LAY DOWN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LEADING TO THE CHILLIEST
MORNING OF THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY...AND SEE GOOD REASON TO NUDGE LOWS
DOWN TOWARD THE COOLER ECMWF WITH A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
RANCHLANDS AND 40 TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
PRIMO DAY OF THE WEEK...NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY...LIGHT WINDS...AND
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 70S.

CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER CHILL DOWN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK SHOULD
MODERATE LOWS JUST A HAIR UPWARD. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
ENOUGH MOISTURE AT BASE OF INVERSION (3500 FEET OR SO) FOR FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS BY NOON IN THE LOWER/MID VALLEY BUT CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. A PERFECT DAY TO GET OUT AND BASK IN THE
THANKSGIVING DAY WARMTH WHICH MAY APPROACH 80 AWAY FROM THE COAST
NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW GRADUALLY RETURNS HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH IT WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND RGV BUT STILL RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.  SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE HUMID WITH A
FEW MORE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ALONG/NEAR US 77...BUT NOTHING MORE
THAN SCATTERED FARTHER WEST. LITTLE CHANGE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR ALL BUT THE COAST.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY....
MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN
WAKE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SO WILL DROP ALL ADVISORIES. THE
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY TURNS BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 3 AND 7 AM MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH. BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO SPREAD THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH
MARGINAL CONDITIONS ON THE LAGUNA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BECOME A BIT STRONGER AND ROUGHER TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY A 1026+
HIGH THAT QUICKLY SCOOTS INTO SOUTH TEXAS WHILE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. WILL BUMP WINDS/SEAS ANOTHER NOTCH...WITH SEAS
PERHAPS TOUCHING 7 TO 8 FEET FOR A LITTLE WHILE ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE A FAIRLY QUICK SUBSIDENCE
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLACKEN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER LAGUNA MADRE BAY.  EITHER WAY...EARLY
ARRIVERS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHO WANT TO GET IN A FISHING TRIP
SHOULD HAVE EXCELLENT CONDITIONS THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH PERHAPS
SOME RESIDUAL ROUGHNESS WEDNESDAY MORNING OFFSHORE UNTIL THE SWELL
SUBSIDES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  83  58  72  55 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          84  57  73  54 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            85  55  72  51 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              87  56  73  52 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  53  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  66  72  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ250>257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/52







000
FXUS64 KBRO 231015
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...IF YOU COULDN`T STAND THE
WEATHER THE LAST FEW DAYS IT WILL BE A CLEAR DAY ALL AROUND DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.

SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER OKLAHOMA TODAY MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH DRIER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN
ADVANCE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
TODAY. THE FRONT ARRIVES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT MOVING
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

TODAY...RESIDUAL MORNING FOG...SOME DENSE...BURNS OFF AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM. WESTERLY WIND AND SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT AND 850MB TEMPS
REACHING 18-20C WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SUNNY, WARM AND DRY DAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 84-90 DEGREES AND CURRENT FORECAST IS WITHIN
THIS RANGE.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A STEADY FALL
IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. SLOW AT FIRST BUT THAN A MORE RAPID DROP
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 3 AND 7 AM. EXPECTING AT
LEAST A 10 DEGREE DROP OVER THIS MORNING LOWS WITH UPPER 40S TO MID
50S MOST LOCATIONS WITH EXCEPTION TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE NEAR
60 DEGREE IS LIKELY.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
SETTLING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST GULF BY THE END OF THE
DAY. SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PUSH TEMPERATURES
DOWN AROUND 12-16 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY`S ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY/...LITTLE HAS CHANGED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS REGARDING THE HOLIDAY WEEK FORECAST. FOR THE MOST
PART...CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER FOR TRAVELERS ESPECIALLY THOSE
WANTING TO GET AWAY FROM THE EARLY SEASON CHILL THAT HAS GRIPPED THE
UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF NOVEMBER. THE
CRITICAL TRAVEL PERIOD FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LOOKS AS CLOSE TO PERFECT AS ONE CAN GET FOR THE ENTIRE STATE OF
TEXAS.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL
FORECASTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MAINLY WITH TEMPERATURE AND
PERHAPS CLOUD COVER.  GFS REMAINS THE MILDEST BY TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY 6 TO 9 DEGREES HIGHER THAN BOTH THE NAM AND THE
ECMWF. CURRENT FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS...AND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SOME MULTI-LAYER CLOUD DECKS TO INSULATE THINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALL AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH (POSITIVE TILT) THAT DIGS
INTO TEXAS ON TUESDAY...SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE GOING FORECAST
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S RANCHLANDS AND 50-55 VALLEY.

AS FOR TUESDAY...WITH UPPER TROUGH DIGGING AND SWINGING
THROUGH...1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FALL TO FAIRLY RARE LEVELS THIS
FAR SOUTH. GFS ON THE HIGHER SIDE WITH VALUES AT 550 TO 558 DM FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AT MIDDAY WHILE ECMWF AT 546 TO 552 DM.  AT THE SAME
TIME...GFS POKES SOME VERTICAL MOTION AND THICKER LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER VALLEY FOR THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
ACCOMPANIED BY THE BRISK NORTH WIND. GFS SATURATES COLUMN IN THE
LOWER AND PERHAPS MID VALLEY BETWEEN 825 AND 650 MB...AND WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOT SUPER DRY COMPARED WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND WILL ADD A 20 PERCENT CHANCE TO CAMERON AND THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH NOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NO REASON TO
ADJUST CURRENT FORECAST WHICH LEANS TOWARD THE COOLER LEVELS. MAY
NUDGE THE LOWER VALLEY DOWNWARD BASED ON CLOUD COVER THROUGH NOON OR
SO...BUT ONLY A HAIR SINCE FULL SUNSHINE RETURNS QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

NORTH WINDS WILL LAY DOWN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LEADING TO THE CHILLIEST
MORNING OF THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY...AND SEE GOOD REASON TO NUDGE LOWS
DOWN TOWARD THE COOLER ECMWF WITH A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
RANCHLANDS AND 40 TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
PRIMO DAY OF THE WEEK...NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY...LIGHT WINDS...AND
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 70S.

CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER CHILL DOWN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK SHOULD
MODERATE LOWS JUST A HAIR UPWARD. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
ENOUGH MOISTURE AT BASE OF INVERSION (3500 FEET OR SO) FOR FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS BY NOON IN THE LOWER/MID VALLEY BUT CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. A PERFECT DAY TO GET OUT AND BASK IN THE
THANKSGIVING DAY WARMTH WHICH MAY APPROACH 80 AWAY FROM THE COAST
NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW GRADUALLY RETURNS HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH IT WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND RGV BUT STILL RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.  SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE HUMID WITH A
FEW MORE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ALONG/NEAR US 77...BUT NOTHING MORE
THAN SCATTERED FARTHER WEST. LITTLE CHANGE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR ALL BUT THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY....
MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN
WAKE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SO WILL DROP ALL ADVISORIES. THE
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY TURNS BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 3 AND 7 AM MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH. BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO SPREAD THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH
MARGINAL CONDITIONS ON THE LAGUNA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BECOME A BIT STRONGER AND ROUGHER TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY A 1026+
HIGH THAT QUICKLY SCOOTS INTO SOUTH TEXAS WHILE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. WILL BUMP WINDS/SEAS ANOTHER NOTCH...WITH SEAS
PERHAPS TOUCHING 7 TO 8 FEET FOR A LITTLE WHILE ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE A FAIRLY QUICK SUBSIDENCE
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLACKEN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER LAGUNA MADRE BAY.  EITHER WAY...EARLY
ARRIVERS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHO WANT TO GET IN A FISHING TRIP
SHOULD HAVE EXCELLENT CONDITIONS THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH PERHAPS
SOME RESIDUAL ROUGHNESS WEDNESDAY MORNING OFFSHORE UNTIL THE SWELL
SUBSIDES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  83  58  72  55 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          84  57  73  54 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            85  55  72  51 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              87  56  73  52 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  53  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  66  72  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...59/GB
LONG TERM...52/BSG
MARINE...59/52
GRAPHICASTS...BILLINGS






000
FXUS64 KBRO 231015
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...IF YOU COULDN`T STAND THE
WEATHER THE LAST FEW DAYS IT WILL BE A CLEAR DAY ALL AROUND DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.

SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER OKLAHOMA TODAY MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH DRIER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN
ADVANCE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
TODAY. THE FRONT ARRIVES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT MOVING
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

TODAY...RESIDUAL MORNING FOG...SOME DENSE...BURNS OFF AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM. WESTERLY WIND AND SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT AND 850MB TEMPS
REACHING 18-20C WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SUNNY, WARM AND DRY DAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 84-90 DEGREES AND CURRENT FORECAST IS WITHIN
THIS RANGE.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A STEADY FALL
IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. SLOW AT FIRST BUT THAN A MORE RAPID DROP
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 3 AND 7 AM. EXPECTING AT
LEAST A 10 DEGREE DROP OVER THIS MORNING LOWS WITH UPPER 40S TO MID
50S MOST LOCATIONS WITH EXCEPTION TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE NEAR
60 DEGREE IS LIKELY.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
SETTLING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST GULF BY THE END OF THE
DAY. SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PUSH TEMPERATURES
DOWN AROUND 12-16 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY`S ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY/...LITTLE HAS CHANGED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS REGARDING THE HOLIDAY WEEK FORECAST. FOR THE MOST
PART...CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER FOR TRAVELERS ESPECIALLY THOSE
WANTING TO GET AWAY FROM THE EARLY SEASON CHILL THAT HAS GRIPPED THE
UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF NOVEMBER. THE
CRITICAL TRAVEL PERIOD FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LOOKS AS CLOSE TO PERFECT AS ONE CAN GET FOR THE ENTIRE STATE OF
TEXAS.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL
FORECASTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MAINLY WITH TEMPERATURE AND
PERHAPS CLOUD COVER.  GFS REMAINS THE MILDEST BY TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY 6 TO 9 DEGREES HIGHER THAN BOTH THE NAM AND THE
ECMWF. CURRENT FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS...AND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SOME MULTI-LAYER CLOUD DECKS TO INSULATE THINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALL AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH (POSITIVE TILT) THAT DIGS
INTO TEXAS ON TUESDAY...SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE GOING FORECAST
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S RANCHLANDS AND 50-55 VALLEY.

AS FOR TUESDAY...WITH UPPER TROUGH DIGGING AND SWINGING
THROUGH...1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FALL TO FAIRLY RARE LEVELS THIS
FAR SOUTH. GFS ON THE HIGHER SIDE WITH VALUES AT 550 TO 558 DM FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AT MIDDAY WHILE ECMWF AT 546 TO 552 DM.  AT THE SAME
TIME...GFS POKES SOME VERTICAL MOTION AND THICKER LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER VALLEY FOR THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
ACCOMPANIED BY THE BRISK NORTH WIND. GFS SATURATES COLUMN IN THE
LOWER AND PERHAPS MID VALLEY BETWEEN 825 AND 650 MB...AND WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOT SUPER DRY COMPARED WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND WILL ADD A 20 PERCENT CHANCE TO CAMERON AND THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH NOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NO REASON TO
ADJUST CURRENT FORECAST WHICH LEANS TOWARD THE COOLER LEVELS. MAY
NUDGE THE LOWER VALLEY DOWNWARD BASED ON CLOUD COVER THROUGH NOON OR
SO...BUT ONLY A HAIR SINCE FULL SUNSHINE RETURNS QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

NORTH WINDS WILL LAY DOWN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LEADING TO THE CHILLIEST
MORNING OF THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY...AND SEE GOOD REASON TO NUDGE LOWS
DOWN TOWARD THE COOLER ECMWF WITH A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
RANCHLANDS AND 40 TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
PRIMO DAY OF THE WEEK...NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY...LIGHT WINDS...AND
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 70S.

CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER CHILL DOWN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK SHOULD
MODERATE LOWS JUST A HAIR UPWARD. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
ENOUGH MOISTURE AT BASE OF INVERSION (3500 FEET OR SO) FOR FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS BY NOON IN THE LOWER/MID VALLEY BUT CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. A PERFECT DAY TO GET OUT AND BASK IN THE
THANKSGIVING DAY WARMTH WHICH MAY APPROACH 80 AWAY FROM THE COAST
NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW GRADUALLY RETURNS HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH IT WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND RGV BUT STILL RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.  SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE HUMID WITH A
FEW MORE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ALONG/NEAR US 77...BUT NOTHING MORE
THAN SCATTERED FARTHER WEST. LITTLE CHANGE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR ALL BUT THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY....
MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN
WAKE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SO WILL DROP ALL ADVISORIES. THE
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY TURNS BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 3 AND 7 AM MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH. BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO SPREAD THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH
MARGINAL CONDITIONS ON THE LAGUNA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BECOME A BIT STRONGER AND ROUGHER TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY A 1026+
HIGH THAT QUICKLY SCOOTS INTO SOUTH TEXAS WHILE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. WILL BUMP WINDS/SEAS ANOTHER NOTCH...WITH SEAS
PERHAPS TOUCHING 7 TO 8 FEET FOR A LITTLE WHILE ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE A FAIRLY QUICK SUBSIDENCE
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLACKEN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER LAGUNA MADRE BAY.  EITHER WAY...EARLY
ARRIVERS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHO WANT TO GET IN A FISHING TRIP
SHOULD HAVE EXCELLENT CONDITIONS THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH PERHAPS
SOME RESIDUAL ROUGHNESS WEDNESDAY MORNING OFFSHORE UNTIL THE SWELL
SUBSIDES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  83  58  72  55 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          84  57  73  54 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            85  55  72  51 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              87  56  73  52 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  53  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  66  72  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...59/GB
LONG TERM...52/BSG
MARINE...59/52
GRAPHICASTS...BILLINGS





000
FXUS64 KBRO 230718 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
118 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE AND SKIES ARE
CLEARING WITH A VERY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND THE WET SOIL FROM THE RAIN THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION IS RESULTING FOG FORMATION OVER UPPER AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
CLEAR WITH THE FOG TO SPREAD EAST TOWARDS THE COAST. WILL HOLD OFF
ON ISSUANCE OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH JUST ENOUGH WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WIND TO KEEP FOG FROM SOCKING US IN. HOWEVER DENSE
PATCHY FOG WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FORECAST WITH NOWCAST COVERING THE FOG OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WELL EAST INTO THE GULF AND
SKIES ARE CLEARING. HOWEVER FOG IS FORMING AND WILL IMPACT THE
TAFS SITES THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING SUNDAY. VISIBILITY TO
LOWER TO LIFR AND POSSIBLY VLIFR FOR A FEW HOURS. ONCE THE FOG
DISSIPATES BY OR BEFORE 15Z VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MFE
AT THIS TIME AND MOVE EAST IN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES. THIS ACTIVITY
IS PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH HRL AND BRO AROUND 05 TO 07Z. THE CONVECTION
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AS WESTERLY FLOW COMES IN
BEHIND THIS TROUGH. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO
IMPROVE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. SUNDAY THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THEN SOUTHEAST FLOW
RETURNS BY THE EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...STILL MONITORING CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY...IN THE FORM OF A SEVERE SQUALL...IS
OVER THE GULF WATERS. ADDITIONAL CELL CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING
OVER HIDALGO COUNTY AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO TAMAULIPAS AND
NUEVO LEON. RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE COOLED THE SURFACE SUFFICIENTLY
IN HIDALGO COUNTY AND POINTS FURTHER WEST TO ELIMINATE ANY
REMAINING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
REDUCTION IN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL CELLS THAT
GET GOING. MUCAPES AROUND 500 TO 800 J/KG APPEAR TO ALSO ELIMINATE
ANY HAIL THREAT AS WELL WHICH GIVES US CONFIDENCE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM.

THE ONLY EXCEPTION FOR NOW IS CAMERON COUNTY WHERE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE HAS STILL
COOLED SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
BUT THE ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO THE WEST AT LEAST BEARS
MONITORING AS FAVORABLE DEEP AND LOW LAYER SHEAR PROFILES PERSIST
OVER THE AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. AT LEAST
SOME ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL ASCENT MAY HELP KEEP THIS REGION AT
LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR BUT THE THREAT
IS LIKELY TOO MARGINAL TO NECESSITATE A CONTINUATION OF THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH BEYOND 10 PM. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN ZAPATA COUNTY AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUE MOVING NE AT
AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THE STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE TERMINALS AFTER 02Z AND PRODUCE STRONG GUST WINDS...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL LOWER VISIBILITY
QUICKLY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AND INTO THE COAST AFTER 05Z.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST AND EXIST THE AREA...GOOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED ALL THE PRODUCTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 557. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS OVER CHIHUAHUA STATE MEXICO...ABOUT ON
SCHEDULE WITH ITS PROGRESS SLOWED BY A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY 70 TO
90 KT JET MAXIMUM OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. A
STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS MARCHING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 110 TO 120 KTS. THIS WILL REACH THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TILT THE TROUGH NEGATIVELY
AND RESULT IN A LARGE AMOUNT OF DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. LEE TROUGHING AND RESPONSE TO THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 TO
35 MPH UNDER A THIN LAYER OF OVERCAST GENERATED BY WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION. 1800 UTC SPECIAL RELEASE SHOWS A MODEST CAP AROUND
800MB TO SURFACE BASED PARCELS BUT RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW LAYER AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE
1200 UTC SOUNDING FROM MONTERREY MEXICO SHOWED A MUCH SHARPER
TERRAIN INDUCED INVERSION AND THE TRAJECTORY OF WINDS OVER
NORTHEASTERN TAMAULIPAS AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY CONVECTION
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME OF THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS
SPREADING OVER SOUTH TEXAS...WHICH IS COMMON IN SUCH REGIMES.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION
AT BAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PREVENT STORMS FROM
TAPPING THE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES CURRENTLY PRESENT. HOWEVER
THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WHICH SHOULD EASILY OVERCOME ANY RESIDUAL
CAPPING. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS EXTRA UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ALSO
STRENGTHENS 925/850MB WINDS ALONG THE COAST IN NAM/RAP GUIDANCE.

THERE IS GOOD GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON CONVECTION INITIATING IN A FEW
HOURS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THIS CONCEPT IS SUPPORTED
BY VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CUMULUS BEGINNING TO BUBBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND PLATEAU AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THESE TSTMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY AROUND 6
TO 7 PM TONIGHT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPER CELLS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LIKELY UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL
LINE/MCS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HAVE BETTER SURFACE
HEATING TO WORK WITH AND LARGER MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES. THE NWS
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN TWO INCHES IN
DIAMETER...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGER CAPES THAT WILL
BE AVAILABLE AT THAT TIME FRAME AMID FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.

THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUFFICIENT HOWEVER TO KEEP AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AVAILABLE AS THE STORMS/CLUSTERS MOVE EAST AMID STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. 0-3 KM CAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 500 TO 800 J/KG WITH LOW
LCL HEIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY INCREASES IN THE 850/925MB WIND FIELDS
AS THE UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST RESULTS
IN 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KTS CREATING ABOUT 150 M2/S2 OF
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY EAST OF THE 281 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN EITHER DISCRETE
SUPER CELLS OR QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD IN ADDITION TO A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. STORM MOTION WILL ALSO LIKELY BE QUICK...AT 40 MPH OR
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LINEAR STRUCTURES. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE TOO
FAST FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

A SURGE OF DEEP DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM 850-700MB MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT...ENDING RAINFALL/STORM CHANCES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS KEEP PUSHING IN DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY LEADING TO A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM...INTO THE LOW 80S
BUT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY NOT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ALTER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MILD WEATHER WEEK WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE LONG TERM.

A WARM TO HOT SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE SEASONAL WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR AIR FROM THE EAST PACIFIC ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST. THE PACIFIC AIR WILL ARRIVE IN TWO PULSES...ONE MONDAY AND
ANOTHER TUESDAY...USHERED ACROSS BY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DIGGING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE SIDE OF A LARGE SCALE RIDGE WEST OF THE
ROCKIES. THE TWO PULSES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY SURFACE AIR...
THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MAY MATERIALIZE NEAR THE COAST MON AND TUE
DURING THE DAY BEFORE DRIER AIR SIMPLY OVERWHELMS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE 50S WED AND THU NIGHT. NORTH WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT ON WED AND THEN TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THAT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE UPSTREAM RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN...AND THE BEGINNING OF MOISTURE RETURN AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THROUGH...
A MILD AUTUMN WEEK IS AHEAD WITH LOTS OF SUN...AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE COLDER THAN NORMAL TUE AND WED NIGHT.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY...AND FOR THE GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MORE
MODERATE SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE NORTH WINDS MONDAY WILL REACH
CAUTION LEVELS ON THE GULF BY AFTERNOON...15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC COOL FRONT.
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN STRONGER GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY
REACHING 20 KNOTS AND LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

WIND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
SET UP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  59  73  55  70 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          59  74  54  71 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            58  73  51  70 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              58  74  51  70 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      57  73  48  70 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   64  73  61  70 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...AVIATION/SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KBRO 230718 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
118 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE AND SKIES ARE
CLEARING WITH A VERY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND THE WET SOIL FROM THE RAIN THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION IS RESULTING FOG FORMATION OVER UPPER AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
CLEAR WITH THE FOG TO SPREAD EAST TOWARDS THE COAST. WILL HOLD OFF
ON ISSUANCE OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH JUST ENOUGH WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WIND TO KEEP FOG FROM SOCKING US IN. HOWEVER DENSE
PATCHY FOG WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FORECAST WITH NOWCAST COVERING THE FOG OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WELL EAST INTO THE GULF AND
SKIES ARE CLEARING. HOWEVER FOG IS FORMING AND WILL IMPACT THE
TAFS SITES THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING SUNDAY. VISIBILITY TO
LOWER TO LIFR AND POSSIBLY VLIFR FOR A FEW HOURS. ONCE THE FOG
DISSIPATES BY OR BEFORE 15Z VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MFE
AT THIS TIME AND MOVE EAST IN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES. THIS ACTIVITY
IS PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH HRL AND BRO AROUND 05 TO 07Z. THE CONVECTION
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AS WESTERLY FLOW COMES IN
BEHIND THIS TROUGH. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO
IMPROVE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. SUNDAY THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THEN SOUTHEAST FLOW
RETURNS BY THE EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...STILL MONITORING CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY...IN THE FORM OF A SEVERE SQUALL...IS
OVER THE GULF WATERS. ADDITIONAL CELL CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING
OVER HIDALGO COUNTY AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO TAMAULIPAS AND
NUEVO LEON. RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE COOLED THE SURFACE SUFFICIENTLY
IN HIDALGO COUNTY AND POINTS FURTHER WEST TO ELIMINATE ANY
REMAINING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
REDUCTION IN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL CELLS THAT
GET GOING. MUCAPES AROUND 500 TO 800 J/KG APPEAR TO ALSO ELIMINATE
ANY HAIL THREAT AS WELL WHICH GIVES US CONFIDENCE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM.

THE ONLY EXCEPTION FOR NOW IS CAMERON COUNTY WHERE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE HAS STILL
COOLED SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
BUT THE ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO THE WEST AT LEAST BEARS
MONITORING AS FAVORABLE DEEP AND LOW LAYER SHEAR PROFILES PERSIST
OVER THE AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. AT LEAST
SOME ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL ASCENT MAY HELP KEEP THIS REGION AT
LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR BUT THE THREAT
IS LIKELY TOO MARGINAL TO NECESSITATE A CONTINUATION OF THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH BEYOND 10 PM. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN ZAPATA COUNTY AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUE MOVING NE AT
AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THE STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE TERMINALS AFTER 02Z AND PRODUCE STRONG GUST WINDS...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL LOWER VISIBILITY
QUICKLY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AND INTO THE COAST AFTER 05Z.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST AND EXIST THE AREA...GOOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED ALL THE PRODUCTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 557. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS OVER CHIHUAHUA STATE MEXICO...ABOUT ON
SCHEDULE WITH ITS PROGRESS SLOWED BY A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY 70 TO
90 KT JET MAXIMUM OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. A
STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS MARCHING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 110 TO 120 KTS. THIS WILL REACH THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TILT THE TROUGH NEGATIVELY
AND RESULT IN A LARGE AMOUNT OF DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. LEE TROUGHING AND RESPONSE TO THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 TO
35 MPH UNDER A THIN LAYER OF OVERCAST GENERATED BY WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION. 1800 UTC SPECIAL RELEASE SHOWS A MODEST CAP AROUND
800MB TO SURFACE BASED PARCELS BUT RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW LAYER AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE
1200 UTC SOUNDING FROM MONTERREY MEXICO SHOWED A MUCH SHARPER
TERRAIN INDUCED INVERSION AND THE TRAJECTORY OF WINDS OVER
NORTHEASTERN TAMAULIPAS AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY CONVECTION
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME OF THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS
SPREADING OVER SOUTH TEXAS...WHICH IS COMMON IN SUCH REGIMES.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION
AT BAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PREVENT STORMS FROM
TAPPING THE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES CURRENTLY PRESENT. HOWEVER
THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WHICH SHOULD EASILY OVERCOME ANY RESIDUAL
CAPPING. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS EXTRA UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ALSO
STRENGTHENS 925/850MB WINDS ALONG THE COAST IN NAM/RAP GUIDANCE.

THERE IS GOOD GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON CONVECTION INITIATING IN A FEW
HOURS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THIS CONCEPT IS SUPPORTED
BY VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CUMULUS BEGINNING TO BUBBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND PLATEAU AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THESE TSTMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY AROUND 6
TO 7 PM TONIGHT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPER CELLS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LIKELY UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL
LINE/MCS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HAVE BETTER SURFACE
HEATING TO WORK WITH AND LARGER MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES. THE NWS
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN TWO INCHES IN
DIAMETER...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGER CAPES THAT WILL
BE AVAILABLE AT THAT TIME FRAME AMID FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.

THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUFFICIENT HOWEVER TO KEEP AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AVAILABLE AS THE STORMS/CLUSTERS MOVE EAST AMID STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. 0-3 KM CAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 500 TO 800 J/KG WITH LOW
LCL HEIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY INCREASES IN THE 850/925MB WIND FIELDS
AS THE UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST RESULTS
IN 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KTS CREATING ABOUT 150 M2/S2 OF
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY EAST OF THE 281 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN EITHER DISCRETE
SUPER CELLS OR QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD IN ADDITION TO A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. STORM MOTION WILL ALSO LIKELY BE QUICK...AT 40 MPH OR
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LINEAR STRUCTURES. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE TOO
FAST FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

A SURGE OF DEEP DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM 850-700MB MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT...ENDING RAINFALL/STORM CHANCES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS KEEP PUSHING IN DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY LEADING TO A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM...INTO THE LOW 80S
BUT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY NOT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ALTER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MILD WEATHER WEEK WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE LONG TERM.

A WARM TO HOT SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE SEASONAL WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR AIR FROM THE EAST PACIFIC ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST. THE PACIFIC AIR WILL ARRIVE IN TWO PULSES...ONE MONDAY AND
ANOTHER TUESDAY...USHERED ACROSS BY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DIGGING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE SIDE OF A LARGE SCALE RIDGE WEST OF THE
ROCKIES. THE TWO PULSES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY SURFACE AIR...
THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MAY MATERIALIZE NEAR THE COAST MON AND TUE
DURING THE DAY BEFORE DRIER AIR SIMPLY OVERWHELMS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE 50S WED AND THU NIGHT. NORTH WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT ON WED AND THEN TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THAT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE UPSTREAM RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN...AND THE BEGINNING OF MOISTURE RETURN AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THROUGH...
A MILD AUTUMN WEEK IS AHEAD WITH LOTS OF SUN...AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE COLDER THAN NORMAL TUE AND WED NIGHT.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY...AND FOR THE GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MORE
MODERATE SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE NORTH WINDS MONDAY WILL REACH
CAUTION LEVELS ON THE GULF BY AFTERNOON...15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC COOL FRONT.
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN STRONGER GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY
REACHING 20 KNOTS AND LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

WIND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
SET UP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  59  73  55  70 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          59  74  54  71 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            58  73  51  70 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              58  74  51  70 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      57  73  48  70 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   64  73  61  70 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...AVIATION/SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KBRO 230516
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1116 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MFE
AT THIS TIME AND MOVE EAST IN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES. THIS ACTIVITY
IS PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH HRL AND BRO AROUND 05 TO 07Z. THE CONVECTION
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AS WESTERLY FLOW COMES IN
BEHIND THIS TROUGH. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO
IMPROVE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. SUNDAY THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THEN SOUTHEAST FLOW
RETURNS BY THE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...STILL MONITORING CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY...IN THE FORM OF A SEVERE SQUALL...IS
OVER THE GULF WATERS. ADDITIONAL CELL CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING
OVER HIDALGO COUNTY AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO TAMAULIPAS AND
NUEVO LEON. RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE COOLED THE SURFACE SUFFICIENTLY
IN HIDALGO COUNTY AND POINTS FURTHER WEST TO ELIMINATE ANY
REMAINING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
REDUCTION IN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL CELLS THAT
GET GOING. MUCAPES AROUND 500 TO 800 J/KG APPEAR TO ALSO ELIMINATE
ANY HAIL THREAT AS WELL WHICH GIVES US CONFIDENCE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM.

THE ONLY EXCEPTION FOR NOW IS CAMERON COUNTY WHERE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE HAS STILL
COOLED SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
BUT THE ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO THE WEST AT LEAST BEARS
MONITORING AS FAVORABLE DEEP AND LOW LAYER SHEAR PROFILES PERSIST
OVER THE AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. AT LEAST
SOME ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL ASCENT MAY HELP KEEP THIS REGION AT
LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR BUT THE THREAT
IS LIKELY TOO MARGINAL TO NECESSITATE A CONTINUATION OF THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH BEYOND 10 PM. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN ZAPATA COUNTY AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUE MOVING NE AT
AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THE STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE TERMINALS AFTER 02Z AND PRODUCE STRONG GUST WINDS...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL LOWER VISIBILITY
QUICKLY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AND INTO THE COAST AFTER 05Z.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST AND EXIST THE AREA...GOOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED ALL THE PRODUCTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 557. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS OVER CHIHUAHUA STATE MEXICO...ABOUT ON
SCHEDULE WITH ITS PROGRESS SLOWED BY A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY 70 TO
90 KT JET MAXIMUM OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. A
STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS MARCHING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 110 TO 120 KTS. THIS WILL REACH THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TILT THE TROUGH NEGATIVELY
AND RESULT IN A LARGE AMOUNT OF DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. LEE TROUGHING AND RESPONSE TO THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 TO
35 MPH UNDER A THIN LAYER OF OVERCAST GENERATED BY WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION. 1800 UTC SPECIAL RELEASE SHOWS A MODEST CAP AROUND
800MB TO SURFACE BASED PARCELS BUT RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW LAYER AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE
1200 UTC SOUNDING FROM MONTERREY MEXICO SHOWED A MUCH SHARPER
TERRAIN INDUCED INVERSION AND THE TRAJECTORY OF WINDS OVER
NORTHEASTERN TAMAULIPAS AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY CONVECTION
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME OF THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS
SPREADING OVER SOUTH TEXAS...WHICH IS COMMON IN SUCH REGIMES.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION
AT BAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PREVENT STORMS FROM
TAPPING THE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES CURRENTLY PRESENT. HOWEVER
THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WHICH SHOULD EASILY OVERCOME ANY RESIDUAL
CAPPING. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS EXTRA UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ALSO
STRENGTHENS 925/850MB WINDS ALONG THE COAST IN NAM/RAP GUIDANCE.

THERE IS GOOD GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON CONVECTION INITIATING IN A FEW
HOURS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THIS CONCEPT IS SUPPORTED
BY VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CUMULUS BEGINNING TO BUBBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND PLATEAU AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THESE TSTMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY AROUND 6
TO 7 PM TONIGHT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPER CELLS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LIKELY UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL
LINE/MCS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HAVE BETTER SURFACE
HEATING TO WORK WITH AND LARGER MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES. THE NWS
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN TWO INCHES IN
DIAMETER...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGER CAPES THAT WILL
BE AVAILABLE AT THAT TIME FRAME AMID FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.

THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUFFICIENT HOWEVER TO KEEP AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AVAILABLE AS THE STORMS/CLUSTERS MOVE EAST AMID STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. 0-3 KM CAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 500 TO 800 J/KG WITH LOW
LCL HEIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY INCREASES IN THE 850/925MB WIND FIELDS
AS THE UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST RESULTS
IN 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KTS CREATING ABOUT 150 M2/S2 OF
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY EAST OF THE 281 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN EITHER DISCRETE
SUPER CELLS OR QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD IN ADDITION TO A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. STORM MOTION WILL ALSO LIKELY BE QUICK...AT 40 MPH OR
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LINEAR STRUCTURES. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE TOO
FAST FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

A SURGE OF DEEP DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM 850-700MB MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT...ENDING RAINFALL/STORM CHANCES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS KEEP PUSHING IN DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY LEADING TO A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM...INTO THE LOW 80S
BUT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY NOT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ALTER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MILD WEATHER WEEK WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE LONG TERM.

A WARM TO HOT SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE SEASONAL WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR AIR FROM THE EAST PACIFIC ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST. THE PACIFIC AIR WILL ARRIVE IN TWO PULSES...ONE MONDAY AND
ANOTHER TUESDAY...USHERED ACROSS BY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DIGGING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE SIDE OF A LARGE SCALE RIDGE WEST OF THE
ROCKIES. THE TWO PULSES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY SURFACE AIR...
THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MAY MATERIALIZE NEAR THE COAST MON AND TUE
DURING THE DAY BEFORE DRIER AIR SIMPLY OVERWHELMS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE 50S WED AND THU NIGHT. NORTH WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT ON WED AND THEN TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THAT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE UPSTREAM RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN...AND THE BEGINNING OF MOISTURE RETURN AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THROUGH...
A MILD AUTUMN WEEK IS AHEAD WITH LOTS OF SUN...AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE COLDER THAN NORMAL TUE AND WED NIGHT.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY...AND FOR THE GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MORE
MODERATE SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE NORTH WINDS MONDAY WILL REACH
CAUTION LEVELS ON THE GULF BY AFTERNOON...15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC COOL FRONT.
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN STRONGER GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY
REACHING 20 KNOTS AND LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

WIND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
SET UP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/60







000
FXUS64 KBRO 230516
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1116 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MFE
AT THIS TIME AND MOVE EAST IN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES. THIS ACTIVITY
IS PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH HRL AND BRO AROUND 05 TO 07Z. THE CONVECTION
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AS WESTERLY FLOW COMES IN
BEHIND THIS TROUGH. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO
IMPROVE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. SUNDAY THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THEN SOUTHEAST FLOW
RETURNS BY THE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...STILL MONITORING CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY...IN THE FORM OF A SEVERE SQUALL...IS
OVER THE GULF WATERS. ADDITIONAL CELL CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING
OVER HIDALGO COUNTY AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO TAMAULIPAS AND
NUEVO LEON. RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE COOLED THE SURFACE SUFFICIENTLY
IN HIDALGO COUNTY AND POINTS FURTHER WEST TO ELIMINATE ANY
REMAINING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
REDUCTION IN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL CELLS THAT
GET GOING. MUCAPES AROUND 500 TO 800 J/KG APPEAR TO ALSO ELIMINATE
ANY HAIL THREAT AS WELL WHICH GIVES US CONFIDENCE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM.

THE ONLY EXCEPTION FOR NOW IS CAMERON COUNTY WHERE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE HAS STILL
COOLED SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
BUT THE ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO THE WEST AT LEAST BEARS
MONITORING AS FAVORABLE DEEP AND LOW LAYER SHEAR PROFILES PERSIST
OVER THE AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. AT LEAST
SOME ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL ASCENT MAY HELP KEEP THIS REGION AT
LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR BUT THE THREAT
IS LIKELY TOO MARGINAL TO NECESSITATE A CONTINUATION OF THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH BEYOND 10 PM. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN ZAPATA COUNTY AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUE MOVING NE AT
AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THE STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE TERMINALS AFTER 02Z AND PRODUCE STRONG GUST WINDS...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL LOWER VISIBILITY
QUICKLY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AND INTO THE COAST AFTER 05Z.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST AND EXIST THE AREA...GOOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED ALL THE PRODUCTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 557. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS OVER CHIHUAHUA STATE MEXICO...ABOUT ON
SCHEDULE WITH ITS PROGRESS SLOWED BY A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY 70 TO
90 KT JET MAXIMUM OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. A
STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS MARCHING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 110 TO 120 KTS. THIS WILL REACH THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TILT THE TROUGH NEGATIVELY
AND RESULT IN A LARGE AMOUNT OF DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. LEE TROUGHING AND RESPONSE TO THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 TO
35 MPH UNDER A THIN LAYER OF OVERCAST GENERATED BY WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION. 1800 UTC SPECIAL RELEASE SHOWS A MODEST CAP AROUND
800MB TO SURFACE BASED PARCELS BUT RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW LAYER AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE
1200 UTC SOUNDING FROM MONTERREY MEXICO SHOWED A MUCH SHARPER
TERRAIN INDUCED INVERSION AND THE TRAJECTORY OF WINDS OVER
NORTHEASTERN TAMAULIPAS AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY CONVECTION
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME OF THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS
SPREADING OVER SOUTH TEXAS...WHICH IS COMMON IN SUCH REGIMES.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION
AT BAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PREVENT STORMS FROM
TAPPING THE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES CURRENTLY PRESENT. HOWEVER
THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WHICH SHOULD EASILY OVERCOME ANY RESIDUAL
CAPPING. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS EXTRA UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ALSO
STRENGTHENS 925/850MB WINDS ALONG THE COAST IN NAM/RAP GUIDANCE.

THERE IS GOOD GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON CONVECTION INITIATING IN A FEW
HOURS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THIS CONCEPT IS SUPPORTED
BY VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CUMULUS BEGINNING TO BUBBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND PLATEAU AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THESE TSTMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY AROUND 6
TO 7 PM TONIGHT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPER CELLS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LIKELY UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL
LINE/MCS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HAVE BETTER SURFACE
HEATING TO WORK WITH AND LARGER MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES. THE NWS
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN TWO INCHES IN
DIAMETER...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGER CAPES THAT WILL
BE AVAILABLE AT THAT TIME FRAME AMID FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.

THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUFFICIENT HOWEVER TO KEEP AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AVAILABLE AS THE STORMS/CLUSTERS MOVE EAST AMID STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. 0-3 KM CAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 500 TO 800 J/KG WITH LOW
LCL HEIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY INCREASES IN THE 850/925MB WIND FIELDS
AS THE UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST RESULTS
IN 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KTS CREATING ABOUT 150 M2/S2 OF
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY EAST OF THE 281 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN EITHER DISCRETE
SUPER CELLS OR QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD IN ADDITION TO A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. STORM MOTION WILL ALSO LIKELY BE QUICK...AT 40 MPH OR
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LINEAR STRUCTURES. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE TOO
FAST FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

A SURGE OF DEEP DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM 850-700MB MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT...ENDING RAINFALL/STORM CHANCES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS KEEP PUSHING IN DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY LEADING TO A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM...INTO THE LOW 80S
BUT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY NOT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ALTER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MILD WEATHER WEEK WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE LONG TERM.

A WARM TO HOT SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE SEASONAL WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR AIR FROM THE EAST PACIFIC ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST. THE PACIFIC AIR WILL ARRIVE IN TWO PULSES...ONE MONDAY AND
ANOTHER TUESDAY...USHERED ACROSS BY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DIGGING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE SIDE OF A LARGE SCALE RIDGE WEST OF THE
ROCKIES. THE TWO PULSES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY SURFACE AIR...
THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MAY MATERIALIZE NEAR THE COAST MON AND TUE
DURING THE DAY BEFORE DRIER AIR SIMPLY OVERWHELMS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE 50S WED AND THU NIGHT. NORTH WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT ON WED AND THEN TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THAT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE UPSTREAM RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN...AND THE BEGINNING OF MOISTURE RETURN AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THROUGH...
A MILD AUTUMN WEEK IS AHEAD WITH LOTS OF SUN...AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE COLDER THAN NORMAL TUE AND WED NIGHT.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY...AND FOR THE GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MORE
MODERATE SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE NORTH WINDS MONDAY WILL REACH
CAUTION LEVELS ON THE GULF BY AFTERNOON...15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC COOL FRONT.
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN STRONGER GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY
REACHING 20 KNOTS AND LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

WIND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
SET UP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/60








000
FXUS64 KBRO 230322 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
922 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...STILL MONITORING CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY...IN THE FORM OF A SEVERE SQUALL...IS
OVER THE GULF WATERS. ADDITIONAL CELL CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING
OVER HIDALGO COUNTY AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO TAMAULIPAS AND
NUEVO LEON. RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE COOLED THE SURFACE SUFFICIENTLY
IN HIDALGO COUNTY AND POINTS FURTHER WEST TO ELIMINATE ANY
REMAINING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
REDUCTION IN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL CELLS THAT
GET GOING. MUCAPES AROUND 500 TO 800 J/KG APPEAR TO ALSO ELIMINATE
ANY HAIL THREAT AS WELL WHICH GIVES US CONFIDENCE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM.

THE ONLY EXCEPTION FOR NOW IS CAMERON COUNTY WHERE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE HAS STILL
COOLED SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
BUT THE ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO THE WEST AT LEAST BEARS
MONITORING AS FAVORABLE DEEP AND LOW LAYER SHEAR PROFILES PERSIST
OVER THE AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. AT LEAST
SOME ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL ASCENT MAY HELP KEEP THIS REGION AT
LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR BUT THE THREAT
IS LIKELY TOO MARGINAL TO NECESSITATE A CONTINUATION OF THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH BEYOND 10 PM. /68-JGG/



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN ZAPATA COUNTY AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUE MOVING NE AT
AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THE STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE TERMINALS AFTER 02Z AND PRODUCE STRONG GUST WINDS...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL LOWER VISIBILITY
QUICKLY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AND INTO THE COAST AFTER 05Z.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST AND EXIST THE AREA...GOOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED ALL THE PRODUCTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 557. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS OVER CHIHUAHUA STATE MEXICO...ABOUT ON
SCHEDULE WITH ITS PROGRESS SLOWED BY A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY 70 TO
90 KT JET MAXIMUM OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. A
STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS MARCHING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 110 TO 120 KTS. THIS WILL REACH THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TILT THE TROUGH NEGATIVELY
AND RESULT IN A LARGE AMOUNT OF DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. LEE TROUGHING AND RESPONSE TO THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 TO
35 MPH UNDER A THIN LAYER OF OVERCAST GENERATED BY WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION. 1800 UTC SPECIAL RELEASE SHOWS A MODEST CAP AROUND
800MB TO SURFACE BASED PARCELS BUT RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW LAYER AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE
1200 UTC SOUNDING FROM MONTERREY MEXICO SHOWED A MUCH SHARPER
TERRAIN INDUCED INVERSION AND THE TRAJECTORY OF WINDS OVER
NORTHEASTERN TAMAULIPAS AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY CONVECTION
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME OF THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS
SPREADING OVER SOUTH TEXAS...WHICH IS COMMON IN SUCH REGIMES.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION
AT BAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PREVENT STORMS FROM
TAPPING THE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES CURRENTLY PRESENT. HOWEVER
THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WHICH SHOULD EASILY OVERCOME ANY RESIDUAL
CAPPING. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS EXTRA UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ALSO
STRENGTHENS 925/850MB WINDS ALONG THE COAST IN NAM/RAP GUIDANCE.

THERE IS GOOD GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON CONVECTION INITIATING IN A FEW
HOURS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THIS CONCEPT IS SUPPORTED
BY VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CUMULUS BEGINNING TO BUBBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND PLATEAU AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THESE TSTMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY AROUND 6
TO 7 PM TONIGHT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPER CELLS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LIKELY UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL
LINE/MCS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HAVE BETTER SURFACE
HEATING TO WORK WITH AND LARGER MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES. THE NWS
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN TWO INCHES IN
DIAMETER...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGER CAPES THAT WILL
BE AVAILABLE AT THAT TIME FRAME AMID FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.

THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUFFICIENT HOWEVER TO KEEP AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AVAILABLE AS THE STORMS/CLUSTERS MOVE EAST AMID STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. 0-3 KM CAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 500 TO 800 J/KG WITH LOW
LCL HEIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY INCREASES IN THE 850/925MB WIND FIELDS
AS THE UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST RESULTS
IN 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KTS CREATING ABOUT 150 M2/S2 OF
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY EAST OF THE 281 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN EITHER DISCRETE
SUPER CELLS OR QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD IN ADDITION TO A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. STORM MOTION WILL ALSO LIKELY BE QUICK...AT 40 MPH OR
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LINEAR STRUCTURES. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE TOO
FAST FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

A SURGE OF DEEP DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM 850-700MB MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT...ENDING RAINFALL/STORM CHANCES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS KEEP PUSHING IN DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY LEADING TO A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM...INTO THE LOW 80S
BUT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY NOT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ALTER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MILD WEATHER WEEK WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE LONG TERM.

A WARM TO HOT SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE SEASONAL WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR AIR FROM THE EAST PACIFIC ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST. THE PACIFIC AIR WILL ARRIVE IN TWO PULSES...ONE MONDAY AND
ANOTHER TUESDAY...USHERED ACROSS BY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DIGGING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE SIDE OF A LARGE SCALE RIDGE WEST OF THE
ROCKIES. THE TWO PULSES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY SURFACE AIR...
THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MAY MATERIALIZE NEAR THE COAST MON AND TUE
DURING THE DAY BEFORE DRIER AIR SIMPLY OVERWHELMS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE 50S WED AND THU NIGHT. NORTH WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT ON WED AND THEN TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THAT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE UPSTREAM RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN...AND THE BEGINNING OF MOISTURE RETURN AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THROUGH...
A MILD AUTUMN WEEK IS AHEAD WITH LOTS OF SUN...AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE COLDER THAN NORMAL TUE AND WED NIGHT.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY...AND FOR THE GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MORE
MODERATE SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE NORTH WINDS MONDAY WILL REACH
CAUTION LEVELS ON THE GULF BY AFTERNOON...15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC COOL FRONT.
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN STRONGER GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY
REACHING 20 KNOTS AND LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

WIND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
SET UP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/60






000
FXUS64 KBRO 230322 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
922 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...STILL MONITORING CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY...IN THE FORM OF A SEVERE SQUALL...IS
OVER THE GULF WATERS. ADDITIONAL CELL CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING
OVER HIDALGO COUNTY AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO TAMAULIPAS AND
NUEVO LEON. RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE COOLED THE SURFACE SUFFICIENTLY
IN HIDALGO COUNTY AND POINTS FURTHER WEST TO ELIMINATE ANY
REMAINING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
REDUCTION IN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL CELLS THAT
GET GOING. MUCAPES AROUND 500 TO 800 J/KG APPEAR TO ALSO ELIMINATE
ANY HAIL THREAT AS WELL WHICH GIVES US CONFIDENCE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM.

THE ONLY EXCEPTION FOR NOW IS CAMERON COUNTY WHERE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE HAS STILL
COOLED SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
BUT THE ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO THE WEST AT LEAST BEARS
MONITORING AS FAVORABLE DEEP AND LOW LAYER SHEAR PROFILES PERSIST
OVER THE AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. AT LEAST
SOME ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL ASCENT MAY HELP KEEP THIS REGION AT
LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR BUT THE THREAT
IS LIKELY TOO MARGINAL TO NECESSITATE A CONTINUATION OF THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH BEYOND 10 PM. /68-JGG/



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN ZAPATA COUNTY AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUE MOVING NE AT
AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THE STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE TERMINALS AFTER 02Z AND PRODUCE STRONG GUST WINDS...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL LOWER VISIBILITY
QUICKLY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AND INTO THE COAST AFTER 05Z.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST AND EXIST THE AREA...GOOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED ALL THE PRODUCTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 557. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS OVER CHIHUAHUA STATE MEXICO...ABOUT ON
SCHEDULE WITH ITS PROGRESS SLOWED BY A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY 70 TO
90 KT JET MAXIMUM OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. A
STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS MARCHING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 110 TO 120 KTS. THIS WILL REACH THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TILT THE TROUGH NEGATIVELY
AND RESULT IN A LARGE AMOUNT OF DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. LEE TROUGHING AND RESPONSE TO THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 TO
35 MPH UNDER A THIN LAYER OF OVERCAST GENERATED BY WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION. 1800 UTC SPECIAL RELEASE SHOWS A MODEST CAP AROUND
800MB TO SURFACE BASED PARCELS BUT RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW LAYER AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE
1200 UTC SOUNDING FROM MONTERREY MEXICO SHOWED A MUCH SHARPER
TERRAIN INDUCED INVERSION AND THE TRAJECTORY OF WINDS OVER
NORTHEASTERN TAMAULIPAS AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY CONVECTION
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME OF THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS
SPREADING OVER SOUTH TEXAS...WHICH IS COMMON IN SUCH REGIMES.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION
AT BAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PREVENT STORMS FROM
TAPPING THE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES CURRENTLY PRESENT. HOWEVER
THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WHICH SHOULD EASILY OVERCOME ANY RESIDUAL
CAPPING. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS EXTRA UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ALSO
STRENGTHENS 925/850MB WINDS ALONG THE COAST IN NAM/RAP GUIDANCE.

THERE IS GOOD GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON CONVECTION INITIATING IN A FEW
HOURS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THIS CONCEPT IS SUPPORTED
BY VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CUMULUS BEGINNING TO BUBBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND PLATEAU AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THESE TSTMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY AROUND 6
TO 7 PM TONIGHT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPER CELLS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LIKELY UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL
LINE/MCS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HAVE BETTER SURFACE
HEATING TO WORK WITH AND LARGER MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES. THE NWS
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN TWO INCHES IN
DIAMETER...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGER CAPES THAT WILL
BE AVAILABLE AT THAT TIME FRAME AMID FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.

THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUFFICIENT HOWEVER TO KEEP AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AVAILABLE AS THE STORMS/CLUSTERS MOVE EAST AMID STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. 0-3 KM CAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 500 TO 800 J/KG WITH LOW
LCL HEIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY INCREASES IN THE 850/925MB WIND FIELDS
AS THE UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST RESULTS
IN 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KTS CREATING ABOUT 150 M2/S2 OF
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY EAST OF THE 281 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN EITHER DISCRETE
SUPER CELLS OR QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD IN ADDITION TO A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. STORM MOTION WILL ALSO LIKELY BE QUICK...AT 40 MPH OR
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LINEAR STRUCTURES. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE TOO
FAST FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

A SURGE OF DEEP DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM 850-700MB MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT...ENDING RAINFALL/STORM CHANCES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS KEEP PUSHING IN DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY LEADING TO A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM...INTO THE LOW 80S
BUT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY NOT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ALTER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MILD WEATHER WEEK WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE LONG TERM.

A WARM TO HOT SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE SEASONAL WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR AIR FROM THE EAST PACIFIC ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST. THE PACIFIC AIR WILL ARRIVE IN TWO PULSES...ONE MONDAY AND
ANOTHER TUESDAY...USHERED ACROSS BY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DIGGING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE SIDE OF A LARGE SCALE RIDGE WEST OF THE
ROCKIES. THE TWO PULSES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY SURFACE AIR...
THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MAY MATERIALIZE NEAR THE COAST MON AND TUE
DURING THE DAY BEFORE DRIER AIR SIMPLY OVERWHELMS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE 50S WED AND THU NIGHT. NORTH WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT ON WED AND THEN TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THAT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE UPSTREAM RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN...AND THE BEGINNING OF MOISTURE RETURN AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THROUGH...
A MILD AUTUMN WEEK IS AHEAD WITH LOTS OF SUN...AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE COLDER THAN NORMAL TUE AND WED NIGHT.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY...AND FOR THE GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MORE
MODERATE SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE NORTH WINDS MONDAY WILL REACH
CAUTION LEVELS ON THE GULF BY AFTERNOON...15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC COOL FRONT.
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN STRONGER GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY
REACHING 20 KNOTS AND LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

WIND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
SET UP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/60







000
FXUS64 KBRO 222335
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
535 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN ZAPATA COUNTY AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUE MOVING NE AT
AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THE STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE TERMINALS AFTER 02Z AND PRODUCE STRONG GUST WINDS...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL LOWER VISIBILITY
QUICKLY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AND INTO THE COAST AFTER 05Z.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST AND EXIST THE AREA...GOOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED ALL THE PRODUCTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 557. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS OVER CHIHUAHUA STATE MEXICO...ABOUT ON
SCHEDULE WITH ITS PROGRESS SLOWED BY A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY 70 TO
90 KT JET MAXIMUM OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. A
STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS MARCHING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 110 TO 120 KTS. THIS WILL REACH THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TILT THE TROUGH NEGATIVELY
AND RESULT IN A LARGE AMOUNT OF DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. LEE TROUGHING AND RESPONSE TO THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 TO
35 MPH UNDER A THIN LAYER OF OVERCAST GENERATED BY WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION. 1800 UTC SPECIAL RELEASE SHOWS A MODEST CAP AROUND
800MB TO SURFACE BASED PARCELS BUT RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW LAYER AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE
1200 UTC SOUNDING FROM MONTERREY MEXICO SHOWED A MUCH SHARPER
TERRAIN INDUCED INVERSION AND THE TRAJECTORY OF WINDS OVER
NORTHEASTERN TAMAULIPAS AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY CONVECTION
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME OF THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS
SPREADING OVER SOUTH TEXAS...WHICH IS COMMON IN SUCH REGIMES.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION
AT BAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PREVENT STORMS FROM
TAPPING THE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES CURRENTLY PRESENT. HOWEVER
THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WHICH SHOULD EASILY OVERCOME ANY RESIDUAL
CAPPING. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS EXTRA UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ALSO
STRENGTHENS 925/850MB WINDS ALONG THE COAST IN NAM/RAP GUIDANCE.

THERE IS GOOD GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON CONVECTION INITIATING IN A FEW
HOURS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THIS CONCEPT IS SUPPORTED
BY VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CUMULUS BEGINNING TO BUBBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND PLATEAU AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THESE TSTMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY AROUND 6
TO 7 PM TONIGHT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPER CELLS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LIKELY UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL
LINE/MCS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HAVE BETTER SURFACE
HEATING TO WORK WITH AND LARGER MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES. THE NWS
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN TWO INCHES IN
DIAMETER...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGER CAPES THAT WILL
BE AVAILABLE AT THAT TIME FRAME AMID FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.

THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUFFICIENT HOWEVER TO KEEP AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AVAILABLE AS THE STORMS/CLUSTERS MOVE EAST AMID STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. 0-3 KM CAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 500 TO 800 J/KG WITH LOW
LCL HEIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY INCREASES IN THE 850/925MB WIND FIELDS
AS THE UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST RESULTS
IN 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KTS CREATING ABOUT 150 M2/S2 OF
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY EAST OF THE 281 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN EITHER DISCRETE
SUPER CELLS OR QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD IN ADDITION TO A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. STORM MOTION WILL ALSO LIKELY BE QUICK...AT 40 MPH OR
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LINEAR STRUCTURES. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE TOO
FAST FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

A SURGE OF DEEP DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM 850-700MB MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT...ENDING RAINFALL/STORM CHANCES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS KEEP PUSHING IN DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY LEADING TO A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM...INTO THE LOW 80S
BUT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY NOT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ALTER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MILD WEATHER WEEK WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE LONG TERM.

A WARM TO HOT SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE SEASONAL WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR AIR FROM THE EAST PACIFIC ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST. THE PACIFIC AIR WILL ARRIVE IN TWO PULSES...ONE MONDAY AND
ANOTHER TUESDAY...USHERED ACROSS BY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DIGGING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE SIDE OF A LARGE SCALE RIDGE WEST OF THE
ROCKIES. THE TWO PULSES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY SURFACE AIR...
THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MAY MATERIALIZE NEAR THE COAST MON AND TUE
DURING THE DAY BEFORE DRIER AIR SIMPLY OVERWHELMS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE 50S WED AND THU NIGHT. NORTH WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT ON WED AND THEN TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THAT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE UPSTREAM RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN...AND THE BEGINNING OF MOISTURE RETURN AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THROUGH...
A MILD AUTUMN WEEK IS AHEAD WITH LOTS OF SUN...AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE COLDER THAN NORMAL TUE AND WED NIGHT.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY...AND FOR THE GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MORE
MODERATE SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE NORTH WINDS MONDAY WILL REACH
CAUTION LEVELS ON THE GULF BY AFTERNOON...15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC COOL FRONT.
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN STRONGER GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY
REACHING 20 KNOTS AND LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

WIND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
SET UP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/60








000
FXUS64 KBRO 222335
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
535 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN ZAPATA COUNTY AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUE MOVING NE AT
AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THE STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE TERMINALS AFTER 02Z AND PRODUCE STRONG GUST WINDS...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL LOWER VISIBILITY
QUICKLY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AND INTO THE COAST AFTER 05Z.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST AND EXIST THE AREA...GOOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED ALL THE PRODUCTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 557. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS OVER CHIHUAHUA STATE MEXICO...ABOUT ON
SCHEDULE WITH ITS PROGRESS SLOWED BY A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY 70 TO
90 KT JET MAXIMUM OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. A
STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS MARCHING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 110 TO 120 KTS. THIS WILL REACH THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TILT THE TROUGH NEGATIVELY
AND RESULT IN A LARGE AMOUNT OF DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. LEE TROUGHING AND RESPONSE TO THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 TO
35 MPH UNDER A THIN LAYER OF OVERCAST GENERATED BY WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION. 1800 UTC SPECIAL RELEASE SHOWS A MODEST CAP AROUND
800MB TO SURFACE BASED PARCELS BUT RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW LAYER AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE
1200 UTC SOUNDING FROM MONTERREY MEXICO SHOWED A MUCH SHARPER
TERRAIN INDUCED INVERSION AND THE TRAJECTORY OF WINDS OVER
NORTHEASTERN TAMAULIPAS AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY CONVECTION
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME OF THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS
SPREADING OVER SOUTH TEXAS...WHICH IS COMMON IN SUCH REGIMES.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION
AT BAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PREVENT STORMS FROM
TAPPING THE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES CURRENTLY PRESENT. HOWEVER
THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WHICH SHOULD EASILY OVERCOME ANY RESIDUAL
CAPPING. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS EXTRA UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ALSO
STRENGTHENS 925/850MB WINDS ALONG THE COAST IN NAM/RAP GUIDANCE.

THERE IS GOOD GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON CONVECTION INITIATING IN A FEW
HOURS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THIS CONCEPT IS SUPPORTED
BY VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CUMULUS BEGINNING TO BUBBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND PLATEAU AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THESE TSTMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY AROUND 6
TO 7 PM TONIGHT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPER CELLS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LIKELY UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL
LINE/MCS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HAVE BETTER SURFACE
HEATING TO WORK WITH AND LARGER MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES. THE NWS
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN TWO INCHES IN
DIAMETER...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGER CAPES THAT WILL
BE AVAILABLE AT THAT TIME FRAME AMID FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.

THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUFFICIENT HOWEVER TO KEEP AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AVAILABLE AS THE STORMS/CLUSTERS MOVE EAST AMID STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. 0-3 KM CAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 500 TO 800 J/KG WITH LOW
LCL HEIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY INCREASES IN THE 850/925MB WIND FIELDS
AS THE UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST RESULTS
IN 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KTS CREATING ABOUT 150 M2/S2 OF
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY EAST OF THE 281 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN EITHER DISCRETE
SUPER CELLS OR QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD IN ADDITION TO A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. STORM MOTION WILL ALSO LIKELY BE QUICK...AT 40 MPH OR
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LINEAR STRUCTURES. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE TOO
FAST FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

A SURGE OF DEEP DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM 850-700MB MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT...ENDING RAINFALL/STORM CHANCES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS KEEP PUSHING IN DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY LEADING TO A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM...INTO THE LOW 80S
BUT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY NOT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ALTER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MILD WEATHER WEEK WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE LONG TERM.

A WARM TO HOT SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE SEASONAL WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR AIR FROM THE EAST PACIFIC ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST. THE PACIFIC AIR WILL ARRIVE IN TWO PULSES...ONE MONDAY AND
ANOTHER TUESDAY...USHERED ACROSS BY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DIGGING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE SIDE OF A LARGE SCALE RIDGE WEST OF THE
ROCKIES. THE TWO PULSES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY SURFACE AIR...
THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MAY MATERIALIZE NEAR THE COAST MON AND TUE
DURING THE DAY BEFORE DRIER AIR SIMPLY OVERWHELMS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE 50S WED AND THU NIGHT. NORTH WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT ON WED AND THEN TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THAT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE UPSTREAM RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN...AND THE BEGINNING OF MOISTURE RETURN AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THROUGH...
A MILD AUTUMN WEEK IS AHEAD WITH LOTS OF SUN...AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE COLDER THAN NORMAL TUE AND WED NIGHT.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY...AND FOR THE GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MORE
MODERATE SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE NORTH WINDS MONDAY WILL REACH
CAUTION LEVELS ON THE GULF BY AFTERNOON...15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC COOL FRONT.
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN STRONGER GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY
REACHING 20 KNOTS AND LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

WIND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
SET UP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/60







000
FXUS64 KBRO 222117
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED ALL THE PRODUCTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 557. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS OVER CHIHUAHUA STATE MEXICO...ABOUT ON
SCHEDULE WITH ITS PROGRESS SLOWED BY A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY 70 TO
90 KT JET MAXIMUM OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. A
STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS MARCHING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 110 TO 120 KTS. THIS WILL REACH THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TILT THE TROUGH NEGATIVELY
AND RESULT IN A LARGE AMOUNT OF DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. LEE TROUGHING AND RESPONSE TO THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 TO
35 MPH UNDER A THIN LAYER OF OVERCAST GENERATED BY WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION. 1800 UTC SPECIAL RELEASE SHOWS A MODEST CAP AROUND
800MB TO SURFACE BASED PARCELS BUT RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW LAYER AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE
1200 UTC SOUNDING FROM MONTERREY MEXICO SHOWED A MUCH SHARPER
TERRAIN INDUCED INVERSION AND THE TRAJECTORY OF WINDS OVER
NORTHEASTERN TAMAULIPAS AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY CONVECTION
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME OF THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS
SPREADING OVER SOUTH TEXAS...WHICH IS COMMON IN SUCH REGIMES.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION
AT BAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PREVENT STORMS FROM
TAPPING THE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES CURRENTLY PRESENT. HOWEVER
THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WHICH SHOULD EASILY OVERCOME ANY RESIDUAL
CAPPING. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS EXTRA UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ALSO
STRENGTHENS 925/850MB WINDS ALONG THE COAST IN NAM/RAP GUIDANCE.

THERE IS GOOD GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON CONVECTION INITIATING IN A FEW
HOURS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THIS CONCEPT IS SUPPORTED
BY VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CUMULUS BEGINNING TO BUBBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND PLATEAU AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THESE TSTMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY AROUND 6
TO 7 PM TONIGHT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPER CELLS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LIKELY UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL
LINE/MCS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HAVE BETTER SURFACE
HEATING TO WORK WITH AND LARGER MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES. THE NWS
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN TWO INCHES IN
DIAMETER...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGER CAPES THAT WILL
BE AVAILABLE AT THAT TIME FRAME AMID FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.

THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUFFICIENT HOWEVER TO KEEP AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AVAILABLE AS THE STORMS/CLUSTERS MOVE EAST AMID STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. 0-3 KM CAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 500 TO 800 J/KG WITH LOW
LCL HEIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY INCREASES IN THE 850/925MB WIND FIELDS
AS THE UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST RESULTS
IN 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KTS CREATING ABOUT 150 M2/S2 OF
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY EAST OF THE 281 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN EITHER DISCRETE
SUPER CELLS OR QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD IN ADDITION TO A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. STORM MOTION WILL ALSO LIKELY BE QUICK...AT 40 MPH OR
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LINEAR STRUCTURES. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE TOO
FAST FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

A SURGE OF DEEP DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM 850-700MB MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT...ENDING RAINFALL/STORM CHANCES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS KEEP PUSHING IN DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY LEADING TO A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM...INTO THE LOW 80S
BUT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY NOT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ALTER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MILD WEATHER WEEK WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE LONG TERM.

A WARM TO HOT SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE SEASONAL WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR AIR FROM THE EAST PACIFIC ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST. THE PACIFIC AIR WILL ARRIVE IN TWO PULSES...ONE MONDAY AND
ANOTHER TUESDAY...USHERED ACROSS BY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DIGGING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE SIDE OF A LARGE SCALE RIDGE WEST OF THE
ROCKIES. THE TWO PULSES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY SURFACE AIR...
THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MAY MATERIALIZE NEAR THE COAST MON AND TUE
DURING THE DAY BEFORE DRIER AIR SIMPLY OVERWHELMS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE 50S WED AND THU NIGHT. NORTH WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT ON WED AND THEN TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THAT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE UPSTREAM RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN...AND THE BEGINNING OF MOISTURE RETURN AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THROUGH...
A MILD AUTUMN WEEK IS AHEAD WITH LOTS OF SUN...AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE COLDER THAN NORMAL TUE AND WED NIGHT.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY...AND FOR THE GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MORE
MODERATE SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE NORTH WINDS MONDAY WILL REACH
CAUTION LEVELS ON THE GULF BY AFTERNOON...15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC COOL FRONT.
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN STRONGER GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY
REACHING 20 KNOTS AND LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

WIND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
SET UP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  64  82  59  73 /  70   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          64  84  59  74 /  70   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            62  84  58  73 /  70   0   0   0
MCALLEN              62  86  58  74 /  70   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      59  87  57  73 /  60   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   67  79  64  73 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/60






000
FXUS64 KBRO 222117
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED ALL THE PRODUCTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 557. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS OVER CHIHUAHUA STATE MEXICO...ABOUT ON
SCHEDULE WITH ITS PROGRESS SLOWED BY A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY 70 TO
90 KT JET MAXIMUM OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. A
STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS MARCHING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 110 TO 120 KTS. THIS WILL REACH THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TILT THE TROUGH NEGATIVELY
AND RESULT IN A LARGE AMOUNT OF DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. LEE TROUGHING AND RESPONSE TO THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 TO
35 MPH UNDER A THIN LAYER OF OVERCAST GENERATED BY WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION. 1800 UTC SPECIAL RELEASE SHOWS A MODEST CAP AROUND
800MB TO SURFACE BASED PARCELS BUT RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW LAYER AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE
1200 UTC SOUNDING FROM MONTERREY MEXICO SHOWED A MUCH SHARPER
TERRAIN INDUCED INVERSION AND THE TRAJECTORY OF WINDS OVER
NORTHEASTERN TAMAULIPAS AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY CONVECTION
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME OF THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS
SPREADING OVER SOUTH TEXAS...WHICH IS COMMON IN SUCH REGIMES.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION
AT BAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PREVENT STORMS FROM
TAPPING THE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES CURRENTLY PRESENT. HOWEVER
THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WHICH SHOULD EASILY OVERCOME ANY RESIDUAL
CAPPING. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS EXTRA UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ALSO
STRENGTHENS 925/850MB WINDS ALONG THE COAST IN NAM/RAP GUIDANCE.

THERE IS GOOD GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON CONVECTION INITIATING IN A FEW
HOURS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THIS CONCEPT IS SUPPORTED
BY VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CUMULUS BEGINNING TO BUBBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND PLATEAU AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THESE TSTMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY AROUND 6
TO 7 PM TONIGHT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPER CELLS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LIKELY UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL
LINE/MCS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HAVE BETTER SURFACE
HEATING TO WORK WITH AND LARGER MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES. THE NWS
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN TWO INCHES IN
DIAMETER...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGER CAPES THAT WILL
BE AVAILABLE AT THAT TIME FRAME AMID FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.

THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUFFICIENT HOWEVER TO KEEP AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AVAILABLE AS THE STORMS/CLUSTERS MOVE EAST AMID STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. 0-3 KM CAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 500 TO 800 J/KG WITH LOW
LCL HEIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY INCREASES IN THE 850/925MB WIND FIELDS
AS THE UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST RESULTS
IN 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KTS CREATING ABOUT 150 M2/S2 OF
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY EAST OF THE 281 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN EITHER DISCRETE
SUPER CELLS OR QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD IN ADDITION TO A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. STORM MOTION WILL ALSO LIKELY BE QUICK...AT 40 MPH OR
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LINEAR STRUCTURES. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE TOO
FAST FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

A SURGE OF DEEP DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM 850-700MB MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT...ENDING RAINFALL/STORM CHANCES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS KEEP PUSHING IN DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY LEADING TO A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM...INTO THE LOW 80S
BUT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY NOT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ALTER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MILD WEATHER WEEK WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE LONG TERM.

A WARM TO HOT SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE SEASONAL WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR AIR FROM THE EAST PACIFIC ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST. THE PACIFIC AIR WILL ARRIVE IN TWO PULSES...ONE MONDAY AND
ANOTHER TUESDAY...USHERED ACROSS BY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DIGGING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE SIDE OF A LARGE SCALE RIDGE WEST OF THE
ROCKIES. THE TWO PULSES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY SURFACE AIR...
THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MAY MATERIALIZE NEAR THE COAST MON AND TUE
DURING THE DAY BEFORE DRIER AIR SIMPLY OVERWHELMS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE 50S WED AND THU NIGHT. NORTH WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT ON WED AND THEN TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THAT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE UPSTREAM RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN...AND THE BEGINNING OF MOISTURE RETURN AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THROUGH...
A MILD AUTUMN WEEK IS AHEAD WITH LOTS OF SUN...AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE COLDER THAN NORMAL TUE AND WED NIGHT.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY...AND FOR THE GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MORE
MODERATE SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE NORTH WINDS MONDAY WILL REACH
CAUTION LEVELS ON THE GULF BY AFTERNOON...15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC COOL FRONT.
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN STRONGER GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY
REACHING 20 KNOTS AND LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

WIND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
SET UP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  64  82  59  73 /  70   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          64  84  59  74 /  70   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            62  84  58  73 /  70   0   0   0
MCALLEN              62  86  58  74 /  70   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      59  87  57  73 /  60   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   67  79  64  73 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/60







000
FXUS64 KBRO 222026
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
226 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS OVER CHIHUAHUA STATE MEXICO...ABOUT ON
SCHEDULE WITH ITS PROGRESS SLOWED BY A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY 70 TO
90 KT JET MAXIMUM OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. A
STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS MARCHING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 110 TO 120 KTS. THIS WILL REACH THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TILT THE TROUGH NEGATIVELY
AND RESULT IN A LARGE AMOUNT OF DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. LEE TROUGHING AND RESPONSE TO THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 TO
35 MPH UNDER A THIN LAYER OF OVERCAST GENERATED BY WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION. 1800 UTC SPECIAL RELEASE SHOWS A MODEST CAP AROUND
800MB TO SURFACE BASED PARCELS BUT RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW LAYER AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE
1200 UTC SOUNDING FROM MONTERREY MEXICO SHOWED A MUCH SHARPER
TERRAIN INDUCED INVERSION AND THE TRAJECTORY OF WINDS OVER
NORTHEASTERN TAMAULIPAS AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY CONVECTION
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME OF THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS
SPREADING OVER SOUTH TEXAS...WHICH IS COMMON IN SUCH REGIMES.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION
AT BAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PREVENT STORMS FROM
TAPPING THE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES CURRENTLY PRESENT. HOWEVER
THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WHICH SHOULD EASILY OVERCOME ANY RESIDUAL
CAPPING. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS EXTRA UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ALSO
STRENGTHENS 925/850MB WINDS ALONG THE COAST IN NAM/RAP GUIDANCE.

THERE IS GOOD GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON CONVECTION INITIATING IN A FEW
HOURS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THIS CONCEPT IS SUPPORTED
BY VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CUMULUS BEGINNING TO BUBBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND PLATEAU AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THESE TSTMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY AROUND 6
TO 7 PM TONIGHT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPER CELLS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LIKELY UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL
LINE/MCS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HAVE BETTER SURFACE
HEATING TO WORK WITH AND LARGER MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES. THE NWS
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN TWO INCHES IN
DIAMETER...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGER CAPES THAT WILL
BE AVAILABLE AT THAT TIME FRAME AMID FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.

THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUFFICIENT HOWEVER TO KEEP AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AVAILABLE AS THE STORMS/CLUSTERS MOVE EAST AMID STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. 0-3 KM CAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 500 TO 800 J/KG WITH LOW
LCL HEIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY INCREASES IN THE 850/925MB WIND FIELDS
AS THE UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST RESULTS
IN 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KTS CREATING ABOUT 150 M2/S2 OF
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY EAST OF THE 281 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN EITHER DISCRETE
SUPER CELLS OR QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD IN ADDITION TO A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. STORM MOTION WILL ALSO LIKELY BE QUICK...AT 40 MPH OR
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LINEAR STRUCTURES. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE TOO
FAST FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

A SURGE OF DEEP DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM 850-700MB MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT...ENDING RAINFALL/STORM CHANCES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS KEEP PUSHING IN DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY LEADING TO A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM...INTO THE LOW 80S
BUT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY NOT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ALTER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. /68-JGG/

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MILD WEATHER WEEK WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE LONG TERM.

A WARM TO HOT SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE SEASONAL WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR AIR FROM THE EAST PACIFIC ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST. THE PACIFIC AIR WILL ARRIVE IN TWO PULSES...ONE MONDAY AND
ANOTHER TUESDAY...USHERED ACROSS BY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DIGGING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE SIDE OF A LARGE SCALE RIDGE WEST OF THE
ROCKIES. THE TWO PULSES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY SURFACE AIR...
THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MAY MATERIALIZE NEAR THE COAST MON AND TUE
DURING THE DAY BEFORE DRIER AIR SIMPLY OVERWHELMS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE 50S WED AND THU NIGHT. NORTH WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT ON WED AND THEN TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THAT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE UPSTREAM RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN...AND THE BEGINNING OF MOISTURE RETURN AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THROUGH...
A MILD AUTUMN WEEK IS AHEAD WITH LOTS OF SUN...AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE COLDER THAN NORMAL TUE AND WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY...AND FOR THE GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MORE
MODERATE SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE NORTH WINDS MONDAY WILL REACH
CAUTION LEVELS ON THE GULF BY AFTERNOON...15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC COOL FRONT.
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN STRONGER GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY
REACHING 20 KNOTS AND LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

WIND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
SET UP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  64  82  59  73 /  70   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          64  84  59  74 /  70   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            62  84  58  73 /  70   0   0   0
MCALLEN              62  86  58  74 /  70   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      59  87  57  73 /  60   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   67  79  64  73 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/54/MARTINEZ





000
FXUS64 KBRO 222026
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
226 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS OVER CHIHUAHUA STATE MEXICO...ABOUT ON
SCHEDULE WITH ITS PROGRESS SLOWED BY A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY 70 TO
90 KT JET MAXIMUM OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. A
STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS MARCHING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 110 TO 120 KTS. THIS WILL REACH THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TILT THE TROUGH NEGATIVELY
AND RESULT IN A LARGE AMOUNT OF DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. LEE TROUGHING AND RESPONSE TO THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 TO
35 MPH UNDER A THIN LAYER OF OVERCAST GENERATED BY WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION. 1800 UTC SPECIAL RELEASE SHOWS A MODEST CAP AROUND
800MB TO SURFACE BASED PARCELS BUT RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW LAYER AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE
1200 UTC SOUNDING FROM MONTERREY MEXICO SHOWED A MUCH SHARPER
TERRAIN INDUCED INVERSION AND THE TRAJECTORY OF WINDS OVER
NORTHEASTERN TAMAULIPAS AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY CONVECTION
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME OF THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS
SPREADING OVER SOUTH TEXAS...WHICH IS COMMON IN SUCH REGIMES.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION
AT BAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PREVENT STORMS FROM
TAPPING THE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES CURRENTLY PRESENT. HOWEVER
THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WHICH SHOULD EASILY OVERCOME ANY RESIDUAL
CAPPING. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS EXTRA UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ALSO
STRENGTHENS 925/850MB WINDS ALONG THE COAST IN NAM/RAP GUIDANCE.

THERE IS GOOD GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON CONVECTION INITIATING IN A FEW
HOURS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THIS CONCEPT IS SUPPORTED
BY VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CUMULUS BEGINNING TO BUBBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND PLATEAU AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THESE TSTMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY AROUND 6
TO 7 PM TONIGHT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPER CELLS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LIKELY UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL
LINE/MCS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HAVE BETTER SURFACE
HEATING TO WORK WITH AND LARGER MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES. THE NWS
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN TWO INCHES IN
DIAMETER...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGER CAPES THAT WILL
BE AVAILABLE AT THAT TIME FRAME AMID FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.

THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUFFICIENT HOWEVER TO KEEP AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AVAILABLE AS THE STORMS/CLUSTERS MOVE EAST AMID STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. 0-3 KM CAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 500 TO 800 J/KG WITH LOW
LCL HEIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY INCREASES IN THE 850/925MB WIND FIELDS
AS THE UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST RESULTS
IN 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KTS CREATING ABOUT 150 M2/S2 OF
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY EAST OF THE 281 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN EITHER DISCRETE
SUPER CELLS OR QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD IN ADDITION TO A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. STORM MOTION WILL ALSO LIKELY BE QUICK...AT 40 MPH OR
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LINEAR STRUCTURES. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE TOO
FAST FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

A SURGE OF DEEP DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM 850-700MB MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT...ENDING RAINFALL/STORM CHANCES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS KEEP PUSHING IN DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY LEADING TO A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM...INTO THE LOW 80S
BUT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY NOT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ALTER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. /68-JGG/

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MILD WEATHER WEEK WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE LONG TERM.

A WARM TO HOT SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE SEASONAL WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR AIR FROM THE EAST PACIFIC ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST. THE PACIFIC AIR WILL ARRIVE IN TWO PULSES...ONE MONDAY AND
ANOTHER TUESDAY...USHERED ACROSS BY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DIGGING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE SIDE OF A LARGE SCALE RIDGE WEST OF THE
ROCKIES. THE TWO PULSES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY SURFACE AIR...
THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MAY MATERIALIZE NEAR THE COAST MON AND TUE
DURING THE DAY BEFORE DRIER AIR SIMPLY OVERWHELMS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE 50S WED AND THU NIGHT. NORTH WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT ON WED AND THEN TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THAT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE UPSTREAM RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN...AND THE BEGINNING OF MOISTURE RETURN AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THROUGH...
A MILD AUTUMN WEEK IS AHEAD WITH LOTS OF SUN...AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE COLDER THAN NORMAL TUE AND WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY...AND FOR THE GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MORE
MODERATE SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE NORTH WINDS MONDAY WILL REACH
CAUTION LEVELS ON THE GULF BY AFTERNOON...15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC COOL FRONT.
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN STRONGER GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY
REACHING 20 KNOTS AND LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

WIND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
SET UP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  64  82  59  73 /  70   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          64  84  59  74 /  70   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            62  84  58  73 /  70   0   0   0
MCALLEN              62  86  58  74 /  70   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      59  87  57  73 /  60   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   67  79  64  73 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/54/MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 221719
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1119 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE. THE GENERAL TREND WILL FOR THE CLOUD
BASES TO LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF
MVFR CIG APPEARS LIKELY. STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER MEXICO AND MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT POSSIBLY IMPACTING
THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 00 AND 04Z. BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STILL CLOSELY MONITORING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER TODAY. ALL
SYNOPTIC DETAILS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE A MINOR
TIMING ADJUSTMENT TO INCREASE POPS A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE MID AND
LOWER VALLEY.

12Z NAM...00Z HIGH RES ARW/NMM...GFS AND THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR
RUNS INITIATE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS AND ADVECT/PROPAGATE IT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BRO CWA
AROUND 6 PM. STRONG TERRAIN INDUCED CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AMID STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 700/800MB WINDS. THIS
KEEPS CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH THAT MOST OF THE DAYTIME WILL BE FREE
OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE 12Z NAM LIFTS/ELIMINATES
THIS CAPPING THROUGH STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z TONIGHT. THIS COUPLES WITH
RICH AND RELATIVELY DEEP LOW LAYER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MODEST
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG NEAR THE COAST AND 2500
J/KG FURTHER INLAND THIS EVENING. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS BETWEEN 50 TO 65 KNOTS WOULD AID IN
ORGANIZING THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ON THE MEXICAN PLATEAU.
STORM MOTION WOULD ALSO LIKELY BE VERY QUICK TO THE NORTHEAST.

CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE APPEARS TO FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT PRESENT AN
UPSCALE TO AN MCS/MULTICELL CLUSTER IS POSSIBLE. 12Z NAM ALSO
PRESENTS STRONGER 0-1KM SHEAR...AROUND 25 KNOTS AS STORMS MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES...YIELDING 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES AROUND 150 M2/S2. 09Z SREF SUPERCELL COMPOSITE AND
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO VALUES OF 1 TO 3 SHOW SOME ENSEMBLE
CREDIBILITY TO THESE VALUES WHICH BRINGS AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
ARE THE PRIMARY MODE OF CONVECTION. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
RESIDUAL WARM AIR FROM EARLIER CAPPING LIMITING LOW LEVEL UPDRAFT
INTENSITY...BUT NAM/GFS 0-3KM CAPE VALUES APPEAR SUFFICIENT AND
APPEAR TO HAVE MODELED THE ANTICIPATED TERRAIN INDUCED WARMING
WELL. THIS HIGHER LOW LAYER SHEAR HAS NOT BEEN PRESENT ON PRIOR
MODEL RUNS SO HAVE SOME SKEPTICISM...BUT WITH DIVERGENCE
INCREASING AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED IT MAKES
GOOD MESOSCALE/SYNOPTIC SENSE. IF THUNDERSTORMS FAIL TO INITIATE
ON THE SIERRA MADRE AND THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT...WHICH IS
RELATIVELY DIFFUSE AND WEAK...IS REQUIRED FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IT APPEARS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD BE
APPRECIABLY LOWER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE OFFICE WILL BE CONDUCTING AN 1800 UTC SPECIAL BALLOON RELEASE
TO GATHER ADDITIONAL DATA ON THE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
OF THE REGION. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE MORNING
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS SITES THEN BECOMING ISOLATED INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN TEXAS APPROACHES AND
MOVES OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM. BEST TIMING OF THE LINE OF STORM IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
IS BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM AND MAY LINGER NEAR THE COAST UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. TAFS TO CONSIST OF VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION WITH MVFR TO IFR WITHIN THE CONVECTION. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS AT 3000 FEET THIS MORNING TO
PARTIALLY MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT A SOUTH WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 32 KNOTS AT THE TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE OFFING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY
INTO THE EVENING. POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BEGINNING TO PICK UP
FORWARD MOMENTUM AS IT DIVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF
THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND EAST OF
THE GULF COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH PLACES DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THE SOUTH SIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING OVER THE REGION. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED AS THIS JET APPROACHES AND MOVES
OVERHEAD. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AT ALL LEVELS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET/SOUTHEASTERLIES STRENGTHENING/AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET
SEEN STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING WITH BOTH
THE LOW LEVEL SE AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW. MOISTURE, LIFT
ARE IN PLACE NOW WE NEED THE INSTABILITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 700MB DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED PRIOR TO MAIN IMPACT
OF THE JET DYNAMICS AND MAY INITIALLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE RGV THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INHIBITING FACTOR MAY BE TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO OVER COME THE LIMITING CAPPING INVERSION.
LOOKING AT ALL FACTORS BELIEVE THERE STILL WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS OR A LINE OF STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START OFF THE DAY
WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION TAKES HOLD. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY BREAK ENOUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR BIT MORE SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 80S. AS FOR THE WIND STILL EXPECTING A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 35KNOTS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO MIX COMPLETELY WITH CLOUDS AND
LIMITED HEATING KEEPING THE FULL WIND POTENTIAL FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE. SO NO WIND ADVISORY BUT SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE LOOKING
WESTWARD AS THUNDERSTORMS GETTING GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
THE HILL COUNTRY. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING OUR CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSITION INTO
A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF SORTS AS THE DIVERGENT FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. TIMING OF
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA IS 6 PM TO 10 PM
AND IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST
POTENTIAL. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS /50-60 MPH/EITHER
WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS ALONG THE LINE OR ALL ALONG THE LINE AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY EASTWARD.

AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SUNDAY...IF SQUALL LINE TIMING REMAINS IN PLACE
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SHORTLY BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS
TAKE OVER AND BEGIN DRYING OUT AND STABLIZING THE LOW LAYERS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO RESULT OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET PLEASANT AND
WARM WITH A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW AND FULL SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY/...ON THE WHOLE A CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEEK FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH IS A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE FROM THE RECENT FLIP-FLOP PATTERN FROM SUMMER TO WINTER AND
BACK AGAIN. DEEP DRY AIR RESIDENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
NORTHERN MEXICO...AIDED BY PERSISTENT 500 MB RIDGING IN THIS AREA
WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW NUDGING THE MASS OF DRY AIR
ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTTOM LINE? A GREAT WEEK
TO ENJOY THE REGION FOR THOSE PLANNING VISITS FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND TRAVEL PERIOD.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM TO HOT SUNDAY
WILL RECEDE TO FAIRLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY /50S TO NEAR 60/. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT ON THE ARRIVAL
OF COOLING NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE END RESULT IS A SEASONABLE DAY
WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH MID DAY BUT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
SLIGHTLY BREEZY MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

WINDS SLACKEN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS WAVE
WHICH ARRIVES AND DIVES THROUGH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS MOST OF THE NIGHT EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE
NOVEMBER AVERAGES. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE
COAST AT DAYBREAK AS ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO BRING MOISTURE BACK BELOW
700 MB BUT FOR NOW HAVE SKY COVER AS PARTLY CLOUDY.

AS FOR TUESDAY...GFS AND ECWMF IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND MOVEMENT OF THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE. THE TAKEWAY IS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COOLING...WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS DIPPING TO
546-552 DM FROM THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH THE RGV BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND 850 TEMPERATURES SLIPPING TOWARD 4-6C
IN THE SAME AREA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE DECK...SOME WHICH WILL TRANSLATE DOWN
TOWARD THE SURFACE AND COULD PRODUCE BREEZIER CONDITIONS THAT
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY MODEL BLENDS. FOR NOW...HAVE SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WOULD NOT
SURPRISE TO SEE THESE VALUES RAMPED UP TOWARD 15-20 KNOTS ON LAND
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS...SUNSHINE
DOMINATES BY AFTERNOON AND WITHOUT A POLAR FEED EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TRIM BACK BELOW AVERAGE BUT STILL ACHIEVE THE
LOWER 70S VALLEY AND AROUND 70 RANCHLANDS...A NICE DAY ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE ARRIVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WINDS SHOULD LAY DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A CLEAR BUT CHILLY
MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THIS POINT
/UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVERALL/. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
TEXAS AS STRONG BUT PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...ABOUT AS
GOOD A TRAVEL DAY AS ONE CAN EXPECT. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS
FANTASTIC AS WELL AND A SHADE WARMER AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH
TO ENJOY.

ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS CYCLE HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEADING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...75 TO
80 OVERALL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EVEN WHERE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
FORM UP.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY WITH MARGINAL CONDITIONS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE. STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN TEXAS TO KEEP A STRONG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BUT COOLER BAY WATERS TO LIMIT THE WIND
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAGUNA. GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN LATE
TODAY BUT RESIDUAL SEAS TO REMAIN HIGH. EXPECTING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND 9 PM AND RACING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS EXITING THE REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
STEADILY LOWERING SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS...15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF QUIETING MONDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SHOT...FRONT NUMBER TWO...OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS
REACHING 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

AS QUICKLY AS WINDS AND SEAS RISE THEY`LL BE DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP QUITE
NICELY FOR THOSE PLANNING PRE-THANKSGIVING BOATING/FISHING TRIPS
INTO THE BAY OR GULF. STILL A HINT OF 5 FOOT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY...BUT INSHORE/NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD BE DELIGHTFUL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  64  82  59 /  30  60   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          80  64  84  59 /  30  60   0   0
HARLINGEN            81  62  84  58 /  30  60   0   0
MCALLEN              82  62  86  58 /  20  60   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  59  87  57 /  30  50   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  67  79  64 /  30  60   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/54






000
FXUS64 KBRO 221719
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1119 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE. THE GENERAL TREND WILL FOR THE CLOUD
BASES TO LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF
MVFR CIG APPEARS LIKELY. STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER MEXICO AND MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT POSSIBLY IMPACTING
THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 00 AND 04Z. BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STILL CLOSELY MONITORING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER TODAY. ALL
SYNOPTIC DETAILS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE A MINOR
TIMING ADJUSTMENT TO INCREASE POPS A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE MID AND
LOWER VALLEY.

12Z NAM...00Z HIGH RES ARW/NMM...GFS AND THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR
RUNS INITIATE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS AND ADVECT/PROPAGATE IT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BRO CWA
AROUND 6 PM. STRONG TERRAIN INDUCED CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AMID STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 700/800MB WINDS. THIS
KEEPS CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH THAT MOST OF THE DAYTIME WILL BE FREE
OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE 12Z NAM LIFTS/ELIMINATES
THIS CAPPING THROUGH STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z TONIGHT. THIS COUPLES WITH
RICH AND RELATIVELY DEEP LOW LAYER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MODEST
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG NEAR THE COAST AND 2500
J/KG FURTHER INLAND THIS EVENING. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS BETWEEN 50 TO 65 KNOTS WOULD AID IN
ORGANIZING THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ON THE MEXICAN PLATEAU.
STORM MOTION WOULD ALSO LIKELY BE VERY QUICK TO THE NORTHEAST.

CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE APPEARS TO FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT PRESENT AN
UPSCALE TO AN MCS/MULTICELL CLUSTER IS POSSIBLE. 12Z NAM ALSO
PRESENTS STRONGER 0-1KM SHEAR...AROUND 25 KNOTS AS STORMS MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES...YIELDING 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES AROUND 150 M2/S2. 09Z SREF SUPERCELL COMPOSITE AND
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO VALUES OF 1 TO 3 SHOW SOME ENSEMBLE
CREDIBILITY TO THESE VALUES WHICH BRINGS AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
ARE THE PRIMARY MODE OF CONVECTION. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
RESIDUAL WARM AIR FROM EARLIER CAPPING LIMITING LOW LEVEL UPDRAFT
INTENSITY...BUT NAM/GFS 0-3KM CAPE VALUES APPEAR SUFFICIENT AND
APPEAR TO HAVE MODELED THE ANTICIPATED TERRAIN INDUCED WARMING
WELL. THIS HIGHER LOW LAYER SHEAR HAS NOT BEEN PRESENT ON PRIOR
MODEL RUNS SO HAVE SOME SKEPTICISM...BUT WITH DIVERGENCE
INCREASING AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED IT MAKES
GOOD MESOSCALE/SYNOPTIC SENSE. IF THUNDERSTORMS FAIL TO INITIATE
ON THE SIERRA MADRE AND THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT...WHICH IS
RELATIVELY DIFFUSE AND WEAK...IS REQUIRED FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IT APPEARS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD BE
APPRECIABLY LOWER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE OFFICE WILL BE CONDUCTING AN 1800 UTC SPECIAL BALLOON RELEASE
TO GATHER ADDITIONAL DATA ON THE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
OF THE REGION. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE MORNING
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS SITES THEN BECOMING ISOLATED INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN TEXAS APPROACHES AND
MOVES OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM. BEST TIMING OF THE LINE OF STORM IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
IS BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM AND MAY LINGER NEAR THE COAST UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. TAFS TO CONSIST OF VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION WITH MVFR TO IFR WITHIN THE CONVECTION. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS AT 3000 FEET THIS MORNING TO
PARTIALLY MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT A SOUTH WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 32 KNOTS AT THE TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE OFFING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY
INTO THE EVENING. POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BEGINNING TO PICK UP
FORWARD MOMENTUM AS IT DIVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF
THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND EAST OF
THE GULF COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH PLACES DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THE SOUTH SIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING OVER THE REGION. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED AS THIS JET APPROACHES AND MOVES
OVERHEAD. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AT ALL LEVELS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET/SOUTHEASTERLIES STRENGTHENING/AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET
SEEN STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING WITH BOTH
THE LOW LEVEL SE AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW. MOISTURE, LIFT
ARE IN PLACE NOW WE NEED THE INSTABILITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 700MB DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED PRIOR TO MAIN IMPACT
OF THE JET DYNAMICS AND MAY INITIALLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE RGV THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INHIBITING FACTOR MAY BE TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO OVER COME THE LIMITING CAPPING INVERSION.
LOOKING AT ALL FACTORS BELIEVE THERE STILL WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS OR A LINE OF STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START OFF THE DAY
WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION TAKES HOLD. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY BREAK ENOUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR BIT MORE SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 80S. AS FOR THE WIND STILL EXPECTING A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 35KNOTS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO MIX COMPLETELY WITH CLOUDS AND
LIMITED HEATING KEEPING THE FULL WIND POTENTIAL FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE. SO NO WIND ADVISORY BUT SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE LOOKING
WESTWARD AS THUNDERSTORMS GETTING GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
THE HILL COUNTRY. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING OUR CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSITION INTO
A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF SORTS AS THE DIVERGENT FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. TIMING OF
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA IS 6 PM TO 10 PM
AND IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST
POTENTIAL. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS /50-60 MPH/EITHER
WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS ALONG THE LINE OR ALL ALONG THE LINE AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY EASTWARD.

AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SUNDAY...IF SQUALL LINE TIMING REMAINS IN PLACE
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SHORTLY BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS
TAKE OVER AND BEGIN DRYING OUT AND STABLIZING THE LOW LAYERS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO RESULT OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET PLEASANT AND
WARM WITH A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW AND FULL SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY/...ON THE WHOLE A CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEEK FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH IS A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE FROM THE RECENT FLIP-FLOP PATTERN FROM SUMMER TO WINTER AND
BACK AGAIN. DEEP DRY AIR RESIDENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
NORTHERN MEXICO...AIDED BY PERSISTENT 500 MB RIDGING IN THIS AREA
WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW NUDGING THE MASS OF DRY AIR
ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTTOM LINE? A GREAT WEEK
TO ENJOY THE REGION FOR THOSE PLANNING VISITS FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND TRAVEL PERIOD.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM TO HOT SUNDAY
WILL RECEDE TO FAIRLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY /50S TO NEAR 60/. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT ON THE ARRIVAL
OF COOLING NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE END RESULT IS A SEASONABLE DAY
WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH MID DAY BUT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
SLIGHTLY BREEZY MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

WINDS SLACKEN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS WAVE
WHICH ARRIVES AND DIVES THROUGH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS MOST OF THE NIGHT EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE
NOVEMBER AVERAGES. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE
COAST AT DAYBREAK AS ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO BRING MOISTURE BACK BELOW
700 MB BUT FOR NOW HAVE SKY COVER AS PARTLY CLOUDY.

AS FOR TUESDAY...GFS AND ECWMF IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND MOVEMENT OF THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE. THE TAKEWAY IS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COOLING...WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS DIPPING TO
546-552 DM FROM THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH THE RGV BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND 850 TEMPERATURES SLIPPING TOWARD 4-6C
IN THE SAME AREA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE DECK...SOME WHICH WILL TRANSLATE DOWN
TOWARD THE SURFACE AND COULD PRODUCE BREEZIER CONDITIONS THAT
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY MODEL BLENDS. FOR NOW...HAVE SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WOULD NOT
SURPRISE TO SEE THESE VALUES RAMPED UP TOWARD 15-20 KNOTS ON LAND
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS...SUNSHINE
DOMINATES BY AFTERNOON AND WITHOUT A POLAR FEED EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TRIM BACK BELOW AVERAGE BUT STILL ACHIEVE THE
LOWER 70S VALLEY AND AROUND 70 RANCHLANDS...A NICE DAY ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE ARRIVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WINDS SHOULD LAY DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A CLEAR BUT CHILLY
MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THIS POINT
/UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVERALL/. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
TEXAS AS STRONG BUT PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...ABOUT AS
GOOD A TRAVEL DAY AS ONE CAN EXPECT. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS
FANTASTIC AS WELL AND A SHADE WARMER AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH
TO ENJOY.

ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS CYCLE HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEADING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...75 TO
80 OVERALL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EVEN WHERE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
FORM UP.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY WITH MARGINAL CONDITIONS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE. STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN TEXAS TO KEEP A STRONG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BUT COOLER BAY WATERS TO LIMIT THE WIND
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAGUNA. GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN LATE
TODAY BUT RESIDUAL SEAS TO REMAIN HIGH. EXPECTING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND 9 PM AND RACING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS EXITING THE REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
STEADILY LOWERING SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS...15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF QUIETING MONDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SHOT...FRONT NUMBER TWO...OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS
REACHING 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

AS QUICKLY AS WINDS AND SEAS RISE THEY`LL BE DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP QUITE
NICELY FOR THOSE PLANNING PRE-THANKSGIVING BOATING/FISHING TRIPS
INTO THE BAY OR GULF. STILL A HINT OF 5 FOOT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY...BUT INSHORE/NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD BE DELIGHTFUL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  64  82  59 /  30  60   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          80  64  84  59 /  30  60   0   0
HARLINGEN            81  62  84  58 /  30  60   0   0
MCALLEN              82  62  86  58 /  20  60   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  59  87  57 /  30  50   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  67  79  64 /  30  60   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/54







000
FXUS64 KBRO 221558 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
958 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STILL CLOSELY MONITORING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER TODAY. ALL
SYNOPTIC DETAILS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE A MINOR
TIMING ADJUSTMENT TO INCREASE POPS A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE MID AND
LOWER VALLEY.

12Z NAM...00Z HIGH RES ARW/NMM...GFS AND THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR
RUNS INITIATE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS AND ADVECT/PROPAGATE IT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BRO CWA
AROUND 6 PM. STRONG TERRAIN INDUCED CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AMID STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 700/800MB WINDS. THIS
KEEPS CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH THAT MOST OF THE DAYTIME WILL BE FREE
OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE 12Z NAM LIFTS/ELIMINATES
THIS CAPPING THROUGH STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z TONIGHT. THIS COUPLES WITH
RICH AND RELATIVELY DEEP LOW LAYER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MODEST
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG NEAR THE COAST AND 2500
J/KG FURTHER INLAND THIS EVENING. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS BETWEEN 50 TO 65 KNOTS WOULD AID IN
ORGANIZING THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ON THE MEXICAN PLATEAU.
STORM MOTION WOULD ALSO LIKELY BE VERY QUICK TO THE NORTHEAST.

CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE APPEARS TO FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT PRESENT AN
UPSCALE TO AN MCS/MULTICELL CLUSTER IS POSSIBLE. 12Z NAM ALSO
PRESENTS STRONGER 0-1KM SHEAR...AROUND 25 KNOTS AS STORMS MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES...YIELDING 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES AROUND 150 M2/S2. 09Z SREF SUPERCELL COMPOSITE AND
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO VALUES OF 1 TO 3 SHOW SOME ENSEMBLE
CREDIBILITY TO THESE VALUES WHICH BRINGS AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
ARE THE PRIMARY MODE OF CONVECTION. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
RESIDUAL WARM AIR FROM EARLIER CAPPING LIMITING LOW LEVEL UPDRAFT
INTENSITY...BUT NAM/GFS 0-3KM CAPE VALUES APPEAR SUFFICIENT AND
APPEAR TO HAVE MODELED THE ANTICIPATED TERRAIN INDUCED WARMING
WELL. THIS HIGHER LOW LAYER SHEAR HAS NOT BEEN PRESENT ON PRIOR
MODEL RUNS SO HAVE SOME SKEPTICISM...BUT WITH DIVERGENCE
INCREASING AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED IT MAKES
GOOD MESOSCALE/SYNOPTIC SENSE. IF THUNDERSTORMS FAIL TO INITIATE
ON THE SIERRA MADRE AND THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT...WHICH IS
RELATIVELY DIFFUSE AND WEAK...IS REQUIRED FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IT APPEARS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD BE
APPRECIABLY LOWER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE OFFICE WILL BE CONDUCTING AN 1800 UTC SPECIAL BALLOON RELEASE
TO GATHER ADDITIONAL DATA ON THE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
OF THE REGION. /68-JGG/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE MORNING
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS SITES THEN BECOMING ISOLATED INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN TEXAS APPROACHES AND
MOVES OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM. BEST TIMING OF THE LINE OF STORM IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
IS BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM AND MAY LINGER NEAR THE COAST UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. TAFS TO CONSIST OF VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION WITH MVFR TO IFR WITHIN THE CONVECTION. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS AT 3000 FEET THIS MORNING TO
PARTIALLY MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT A SOUTH WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 32 KNOTS AT THE TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE OFFING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY
INTO THE EVENING. POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BEGINNING TO PICK UP
FORWARD MOMENTUM AS IT DIVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF
THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND EAST OF
THE GULF COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH PLACES DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THE SOUTH SIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING OVER THE REGION. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED AS THIS JET APPROACHES AND MOVES
OVERHEAD. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AT ALL LEVELS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET/SOUTHEASTERLIES STRENGTHENING/AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET
SEEN STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING WITH BOTH
THE LOW LEVEL SE AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW. MOISTURE, LIFT
ARE IN PLACE NOW WE NEED THE INSTABILITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 700MB DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED PRIOR TO MAIN IMPACT
OF THE JET DYNAMICS AND MAY INITIALLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE RGV THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INHIBITING FACTOR MAY BE TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO OVER COME THE LIMITING CAPPING INVERSION.
LOOKING AT ALL FACTORS BELIEVE THERE STILL WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS OR A LINE OF STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START OFF THE DAY
WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION TAKES HOLD. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY BREAK ENOUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR BIT MORE SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 80S. AS FOR THE WIND STILL EXPECTING A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 35KNOTS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO MIX COMPLETELY WITH CLOUDS AND
LIMITED HEATING KEEPING THE FULL WIND POTENTIAL FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE. SO NO WIND ADVISORY BUT SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE LOOKING
WESTWARD AS THUNDERSTORMS GETTING GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
THE HILL COUNTRY. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING OUR CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSITION INTO
A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF SORTS AS THE DIVERGENT FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. TIMING OF
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA IS 6 PM TO 10 PM
AND IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST
POTENTIAL. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS /50-60 MPH/EITHER
WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS ALONG THE LINE OR ALL ALONG THE LINE AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY EASTWARD.

AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SUNDAY...IF SQUALL LINE TIMING REMAINS IN PLACE
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SHORTLY BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS
TAKE OVER AND BEGIN DRYING OUT AND STABLIZING THE LOW LAYERS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO RESULT OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET PLEASANT AND
WARM WITH A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW AND FULL SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY/...ON THE WHOLE A CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEEK FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH IS A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE FROM THE RECENT FLIP-FLOP PATTERN FROM SUMMER TO WINTER AND
BACK AGAIN. DEEP DRY AIR RESIDENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
NORTHERN MEXICO...AIDED BY PERSISTENT 500 MB RIDGING IN THIS AREA
WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW NUDGING THE MASS OF DRY AIR
ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTTOM LINE? A GREAT WEEK
TO ENJOY THE REGION FOR THOSE PLANNING VISITS FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND TRAVEL PERIOD.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM TO HOT SUNDAY
WILL RECEDE TO FAIRLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY /50S TO NEAR 60/. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT ON THE ARRIVAL
OF COOLING NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE END RESULT IS A SEASONABLE DAY
WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH MID DAY BUT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
SLIGHTLY BREEZY MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

WINDS SLACKEN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS WAVE
WHICH ARRIVES AND DIVES THROUGH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS MOST OF THE NIGHT EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE
NOVEMBER AVERAGES. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE
COAST AT DAYBREAK AS ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO BRING MOISTURE BACK BELOW
700 MB BUT FOR NOW HAVE SKY COVER AS PARTLY CLOUDY.

AS FOR TUESDAY...GFS AND ECWMF IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND MOVEMENT OF THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE. THE TAKEWAY IS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COOLING...WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS DIPPING TO
546-552 DM FROM THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH THE RGV BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND 850 TEMPERATURES SLIPPING TOWARD 4-6C
IN THE SAME AREA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE DECK...SOME WHICH WILL TRANSLATE DOWN
TOWARD THE SURFACE AND COULD PRODUCE BREEZIER CONDITIONS THAT
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY MODEL BLENDS. FOR NOW...HAVE SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WOULD NOT
SURPRISE TO SEE THESE VALUES RAMPED UP TOWARD 15-20 KNOTS ON LAND
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS...SUNSHINE
DOMINATES BY AFTERNOON AND WITHOUT A POLAR FEED EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TRIM BACK BELOW AVERAGE BUT STILL ACHIEVE THE
LOWER 70S VALLEY AND AROUND 70 RANCHLANDS...A NICE DAY ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE ARRIVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WINDS SHOULD LAY DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A CLEAR BUT CHILLY
MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THIS POINT
/UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVERALL/. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
TEXAS AS STRONG BUT PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...ABOUT AS
GOOD A TRAVEL DAY AS ONE CAN EXPECT. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS
FANTASTIC AS WELL AND A SHADE WARMER AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH
TO ENJOY.

ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS CYCLE HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEADING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...75 TO
80 OVERALL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EVEN WHERE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
FORM UP.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY WITH MARGINAL CONDITIONS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE. STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN TEXAS TO KEEP A STRONG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BUT COOLER BAY WATERS TO LIMIT THE WIND
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAGUNA. GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN LATE
TODAY BUT RESIDUAL SEAS TO REMAIN HIGH. EXPECTING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND 9 PM AND RACING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS EXITING THE REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
STEADILY LOWERING SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS...15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF QUIETING MONDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SHOT...FRONT NUMBER TWO...OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS
REACHING 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

AS QUICKLY AS WINDS AND SEAS RISE THEY`LL BE DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP QUITE
NICELY FOR THOSE PLANNING PRE-THANKSGIVING BOATING/FISHING TRIPS
INTO THE BAY OR GULF. STILL A HINT OF 5 FOOT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY...BUT INSHORE/NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD BE DELIGHTFUL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  64  82  59 /  30  60   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          80  64  84  59 /  30  60   0   0
HARLINGEN            81  62  84  58 /  30  60   0   0
MCALLEN              82  62  86  58 /  20  60   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  59  87  57 /  30  50   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  67  79  64 /  30  60   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/54







000
FXUS64 KBRO 221558 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
958 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STILL CLOSELY MONITORING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER TODAY. ALL
SYNOPTIC DETAILS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE A MINOR
TIMING ADJUSTMENT TO INCREASE POPS A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE MID AND
LOWER VALLEY.

12Z NAM...00Z HIGH RES ARW/NMM...GFS AND THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR
RUNS INITIATE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS AND ADVECT/PROPAGATE IT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BRO CWA
AROUND 6 PM. STRONG TERRAIN INDUCED CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AMID STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 700/800MB WINDS. THIS
KEEPS CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH THAT MOST OF THE DAYTIME WILL BE FREE
OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE 12Z NAM LIFTS/ELIMINATES
THIS CAPPING THROUGH STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z TONIGHT. THIS COUPLES WITH
RICH AND RELATIVELY DEEP LOW LAYER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MODEST
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG NEAR THE COAST AND 2500
J/KG FURTHER INLAND THIS EVENING. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS BETWEEN 50 TO 65 KNOTS WOULD AID IN
ORGANIZING THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ON THE MEXICAN PLATEAU.
STORM MOTION WOULD ALSO LIKELY BE VERY QUICK TO THE NORTHEAST.

CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE APPEARS TO FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT PRESENT AN
UPSCALE TO AN MCS/MULTICELL CLUSTER IS POSSIBLE. 12Z NAM ALSO
PRESENTS STRONGER 0-1KM SHEAR...AROUND 25 KNOTS AS STORMS MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES...YIELDING 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES AROUND 150 M2/S2. 09Z SREF SUPERCELL COMPOSITE AND
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO VALUES OF 1 TO 3 SHOW SOME ENSEMBLE
CREDIBILITY TO THESE VALUES WHICH BRINGS AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
ARE THE PRIMARY MODE OF CONVECTION. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
RESIDUAL WARM AIR FROM EARLIER CAPPING LIMITING LOW LEVEL UPDRAFT
INTENSITY...BUT NAM/GFS 0-3KM CAPE VALUES APPEAR SUFFICIENT AND
APPEAR TO HAVE MODELED THE ANTICIPATED TERRAIN INDUCED WARMING
WELL. THIS HIGHER LOW LAYER SHEAR HAS NOT BEEN PRESENT ON PRIOR
MODEL RUNS SO HAVE SOME SKEPTICISM...BUT WITH DIVERGENCE
INCREASING AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED IT MAKES
GOOD MESOSCALE/SYNOPTIC SENSE. IF THUNDERSTORMS FAIL TO INITIATE
ON THE SIERRA MADRE AND THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT...WHICH IS
RELATIVELY DIFFUSE AND WEAK...IS REQUIRED FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IT APPEARS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD BE
APPRECIABLY LOWER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE OFFICE WILL BE CONDUCTING AN 1800 UTC SPECIAL BALLOON RELEASE
TO GATHER ADDITIONAL DATA ON THE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
OF THE REGION. /68-JGG/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE MORNING
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS SITES THEN BECOMING ISOLATED INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN TEXAS APPROACHES AND
MOVES OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM. BEST TIMING OF THE LINE OF STORM IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
IS BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM AND MAY LINGER NEAR THE COAST UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. TAFS TO CONSIST OF VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION WITH MVFR TO IFR WITHIN THE CONVECTION. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS AT 3000 FEET THIS MORNING TO
PARTIALLY MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT A SOUTH WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 32 KNOTS AT THE TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE OFFING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY
INTO THE EVENING. POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BEGINNING TO PICK UP
FORWARD MOMENTUM AS IT DIVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF
THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND EAST OF
THE GULF COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH PLACES DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THE SOUTH SIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING OVER THE REGION. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED AS THIS JET APPROACHES AND MOVES
OVERHEAD. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AT ALL LEVELS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET/SOUTHEASTERLIES STRENGTHENING/AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET
SEEN STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING WITH BOTH
THE LOW LEVEL SE AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW. MOISTURE, LIFT
ARE IN PLACE NOW WE NEED THE INSTABILITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 700MB DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED PRIOR TO MAIN IMPACT
OF THE JET DYNAMICS AND MAY INITIALLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE RGV THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INHIBITING FACTOR MAY BE TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO OVER COME THE LIMITING CAPPING INVERSION.
LOOKING AT ALL FACTORS BELIEVE THERE STILL WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS OR A LINE OF STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START OFF THE DAY
WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION TAKES HOLD. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY BREAK ENOUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR BIT MORE SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 80S. AS FOR THE WIND STILL EXPECTING A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 35KNOTS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO MIX COMPLETELY WITH CLOUDS AND
LIMITED HEATING KEEPING THE FULL WIND POTENTIAL FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE. SO NO WIND ADVISORY BUT SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE LOOKING
WESTWARD AS THUNDERSTORMS GETTING GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
THE HILL COUNTRY. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING OUR CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSITION INTO
A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF SORTS AS THE DIVERGENT FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. TIMING OF
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA IS 6 PM TO 10 PM
AND IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST
POTENTIAL. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS /50-60 MPH/EITHER
WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS ALONG THE LINE OR ALL ALONG THE LINE AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY EASTWARD.

AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SUNDAY...IF SQUALL LINE TIMING REMAINS IN PLACE
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SHORTLY BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS
TAKE OVER AND BEGIN DRYING OUT AND STABLIZING THE LOW LAYERS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO RESULT OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET PLEASANT AND
WARM WITH A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW AND FULL SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY/...ON THE WHOLE A CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEEK FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH IS A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE FROM THE RECENT FLIP-FLOP PATTERN FROM SUMMER TO WINTER AND
BACK AGAIN. DEEP DRY AIR RESIDENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
NORTHERN MEXICO...AIDED BY PERSISTENT 500 MB RIDGING IN THIS AREA
WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW NUDGING THE MASS OF DRY AIR
ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTTOM LINE? A GREAT WEEK
TO ENJOY THE REGION FOR THOSE PLANNING VISITS FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND TRAVEL PERIOD.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM TO HOT SUNDAY
WILL RECEDE TO FAIRLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY /50S TO NEAR 60/. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT ON THE ARRIVAL
OF COOLING NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE END RESULT IS A SEASONABLE DAY
WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH MID DAY BUT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
SLIGHTLY BREEZY MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

WINDS SLACKEN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS WAVE
WHICH ARRIVES AND DIVES THROUGH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS MOST OF THE NIGHT EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE
NOVEMBER AVERAGES. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE
COAST AT DAYBREAK AS ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO BRING MOISTURE BACK BELOW
700 MB BUT FOR NOW HAVE SKY COVER AS PARTLY CLOUDY.

AS FOR TUESDAY...GFS AND ECWMF IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND MOVEMENT OF THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE. THE TAKEWAY IS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COOLING...WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS DIPPING TO
546-552 DM FROM THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH THE RGV BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND 850 TEMPERATURES SLIPPING TOWARD 4-6C
IN THE SAME AREA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE DECK...SOME WHICH WILL TRANSLATE DOWN
TOWARD THE SURFACE AND COULD PRODUCE BREEZIER CONDITIONS THAT
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY MODEL BLENDS. FOR NOW...HAVE SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WOULD NOT
SURPRISE TO SEE THESE VALUES RAMPED UP TOWARD 15-20 KNOTS ON LAND
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS...SUNSHINE
DOMINATES BY AFTERNOON AND WITHOUT A POLAR FEED EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TRIM BACK BELOW AVERAGE BUT STILL ACHIEVE THE
LOWER 70S VALLEY AND AROUND 70 RANCHLANDS...A NICE DAY ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE ARRIVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WINDS SHOULD LAY DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A CLEAR BUT CHILLY
MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THIS POINT
/UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVERALL/. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
TEXAS AS STRONG BUT PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...ABOUT AS
GOOD A TRAVEL DAY AS ONE CAN EXPECT. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS
FANTASTIC AS WELL AND A SHADE WARMER AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH
TO ENJOY.

ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS CYCLE HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEADING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...75 TO
80 OVERALL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EVEN WHERE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
FORM UP.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY WITH MARGINAL CONDITIONS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE. STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN TEXAS TO KEEP A STRONG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BUT COOLER BAY WATERS TO LIMIT THE WIND
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAGUNA. GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN LATE
TODAY BUT RESIDUAL SEAS TO REMAIN HIGH. EXPECTING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND 9 PM AND RACING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS EXITING THE REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
STEADILY LOWERING SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS...15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF QUIETING MONDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SHOT...FRONT NUMBER TWO...OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS
REACHING 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

AS QUICKLY AS WINDS AND SEAS RISE THEY`LL BE DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP QUITE
NICELY FOR THOSE PLANNING PRE-THANKSGIVING BOATING/FISHING TRIPS
INTO THE BAY OR GULF. STILL A HINT OF 5 FOOT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY...BUT INSHORE/NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD BE DELIGHTFUL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  64  82  59 /  30  60   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          80  64  84  59 /  30  60   0   0
HARLINGEN            81  62  84  58 /  30  60   0   0
MCALLEN              82  62  86  58 /  20  60   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  59  87  57 /  30  50   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  67  79  64 /  30  60   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/54






000
FXUS64 KBRO 221136 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
536 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE MORNING
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS SITES THEN BECOMING ISOLATED INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN TEXAS APPROACHES AND
MOVES OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM. BEST TIMING OF THE LINE OF STORM IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
IS BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM AND MAY LINGER NEAR THE COAST UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. TAFS TO CONSIST OF VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION WITH MVFR TO IFR WITHIN THE CONVECTION. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS AT 3000 FEET THIS MORNING TO
PARTIALLY MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT A SOUTH WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 32 KNOTS AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE OFFING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY
INTO THE EVENING. POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BEGINNING TO PICK UP
FORWARD MOMENTUM AS IT DIVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF
THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND EAST OF
THE GULF COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH PLACES DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THE SOUTH SIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING OVER THE REGION. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED AS THIS JET APPROACHES AND MOVES
OVERHEAD. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AT ALL LEVELS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET/SOUTHEASTERLIES STRENGTHENING/AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET
SEEN STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING WITH BOTH
THE LOW LEVEL SE AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW. MOISTURE, LIFT
ARE IN PLACE NOW WE NEED THE INSTABILITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 700MB DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED PRIOR TO MAIN IMPACT
OF THE JET DYNAMICS AND MAY INITIALLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE RGV THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INHIBITING FACTOR MAY BE TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO OVER COME THE LIMITING CAPPING INVERSION.
LOOKING AT ALL FACTORS BELIEVE THERE STILL WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS OR A LINE OF STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START OFF THE DAY
WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION TAKES HOLD. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY BREAK ENOUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR BIT MORE SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 80S. AS FOR THE WIND STILL EXPECTING A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 35KNOTS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO MIX COMPLETELY WITH CLOUDS AND
LIMITED HEATING KEEPING THE FULL WIND POTENTIAL FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE. SO NO WIND ADVISORY BUT SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE LOOKING
WESTWARD AS THUNDERSTORMS GETTING GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
THE HILL COUNTRY. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING OUR CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSITION INTO
A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF SORTS AS THE DIVERGENT FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. TIMING OF
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA IS 6 PM TO 10 PM
AND IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST
POTENTIAL. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS /50-60 MPH/EITHER
WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS ALONG THE LINE OR ALL ALONG THE LINE AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY EASTWARD.

AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SUNDAY...IF SQUALL LINE TIMING REMAINS IN PLACE
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SHORTLY BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS
TAKE OVER AND BEGIN DRYING OUT AND STABLIZING THE LOW LAYERS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO RESULT OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET PLEASANT AND
WARM WITH A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW AND FULL SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY/...ON THE WHOLE A CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEEK FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH IS A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE FROM THE RECENT FLIP-FLOP PATTERN FROM SUMMER TO WINTER AND
BACK AGAIN. DEEP DRY AIR RESIDENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
NORTHERN MEXICO...AIDED BY PERSISTENT 500 MB RIDGING IN THIS AREA
WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW NUDGING THE MASS OF DRY AIR
ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTTOM LINE? A GREAT WEEK
TO ENJOY THE REGION FOR THOSE PLANNING VISITS FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND TRAVEL PERIOD.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM TO HOT SUNDAY
WILL RECEDE TO FAIRLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY /50S TO NEAR 60/. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT ON THE ARRIVAL
OF COOLING NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE END RESULT IS A SEASONABLE DAY
WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH MID DAY BUT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
SLIGHTLY BREEZY MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

WINDS SLACKEN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS WAVE
WHICH ARRIVES AND DIVES THROUGH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS MOST OF THE NIGHT EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE
NOVEMBER AVERAGES. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE
COAST AT DAYBREAK AS ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO BRING MOISTURE BACK BELOW
700 MB BUT FOR NOW HAVE SKY COVER AS PARTLY CLOUDY.

AS FOR TUESDAY...GFS AND ECWMF IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND MOVEMENT OF THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE. THE TAKEWAY IS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COOLING...WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS DIPPING TO
546-552 DM FROM THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH THE RGV BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND 850 TEMPERATURES SLIPPING TOWARD 4-6C
IN THE SAME AREA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE DECK...SOME WHICH WILL TRANSLATE DOWN
TOWARD THE SURFACE AND COULD PRODUCE BREEZIER CONDITIONS THAT
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY MODEL BLENDS. FOR NOW...HAVE SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WOULD NOT
SURPRISE TO SEE THESE VALUES RAMPED UP TOWARD 15-20 KNOTS ON LAND
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS...SUNSHINE
DOMINATES BY AFTERNOON AND WITHOUT A POLAR FEED EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TRIM BACK BELOW AVERAGE BUT STILL ACHIEVE THE
LOWER 70S VALLEY AND AROUND 70 RANCHLANDS...A NICE DAY ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE ARRIVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WINDS SHOULD LAY DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A CLEAR BUT CHILLY
MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THIS POINT
/UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVERALL/. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
TEXAS AS STRONG BUT PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...ABOUT AS
GOOD A TRAVEL DAY AS ONE CAN EXPECT. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS
FANTASTIC AS WELL AND A SHADE WARMER AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH
TO ENJOY.

ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS CYCLE HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEADING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...75 TO
80 OVERALL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EVEN WHERE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
FORM UP.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY WITH MARGINAL CONDITIONS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE. STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN TEXAS TO KEEP A STRONG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BUT COOLER BAY WATERS TO LIMIT THE WIND
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAGUNA. GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN LATE
TODAY BUT RESIDUAL SEAS TO REMAIN HIGH. EXPECTING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND 9 PM AND RACING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS EXITING THE REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
STEADILY LOWERING SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS...15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF QUIETING MONDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SHOT...FRONT NUMBER TWO...OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS
REACHING 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

AS QUICKLY AS WINDS AND SEAS RISE THEY`LL BE DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP QUITE
NICELY FOR THOSE PLANNING PRE-THANKSGIVING BOATING/FISHING TRIPS
INTO THE BAY OR GULF. STILL A HINT OF 5 FOOT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY...BUT INSHORE/NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD BE DELIGHTFUL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  64  82  59 /  30  60   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          80  64  84  59 /  30  60   0   0
HARLINGEN            81  62  84  58 /  30  60   0   0
MCALLEN              82  62  86  58 /  20  40   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  59  87  57 /  30  50   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  67  79  64 /  30  60   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...SHORT TERM/AVIATION
52...LONG TERM








000
FXUS64 KBRO 221136 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
536 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE MORNING
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS SITES THEN BECOMING ISOLATED INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN TEXAS APPROACHES AND
MOVES OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM. BEST TIMING OF THE LINE OF STORM IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
IS BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM AND MAY LINGER NEAR THE COAST UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. TAFS TO CONSIST OF VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION WITH MVFR TO IFR WITHIN THE CONVECTION. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS AT 3000 FEET THIS MORNING TO
PARTIALLY MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT A SOUTH WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 32 KNOTS AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE OFFING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY
INTO THE EVENING. POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BEGINNING TO PICK UP
FORWARD MOMENTUM AS IT DIVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF
THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND EAST OF
THE GULF COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH PLACES DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THE SOUTH SIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING OVER THE REGION. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED AS THIS JET APPROACHES AND MOVES
OVERHEAD. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AT ALL LEVELS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET/SOUTHEASTERLIES STRENGTHENING/AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET
SEEN STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING WITH BOTH
THE LOW LEVEL SE AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW. MOISTURE, LIFT
ARE IN PLACE NOW WE NEED THE INSTABILITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 700MB DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED PRIOR TO MAIN IMPACT
OF THE JET DYNAMICS AND MAY INITIALLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE RGV THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INHIBITING FACTOR MAY BE TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO OVER COME THE LIMITING CAPPING INVERSION.
LOOKING AT ALL FACTORS BELIEVE THERE STILL WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS OR A LINE OF STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START OFF THE DAY
WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION TAKES HOLD. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY BREAK ENOUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR BIT MORE SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 80S. AS FOR THE WIND STILL EXPECTING A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 35KNOTS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO MIX COMPLETELY WITH CLOUDS AND
LIMITED HEATING KEEPING THE FULL WIND POTENTIAL FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE. SO NO WIND ADVISORY BUT SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE LOOKING
WESTWARD AS THUNDERSTORMS GETTING GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
THE HILL COUNTRY. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING OUR CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSITION INTO
A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF SORTS AS THE DIVERGENT FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. TIMING OF
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA IS 6 PM TO 10 PM
AND IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST
POTENTIAL. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS /50-60 MPH/EITHER
WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS ALONG THE LINE OR ALL ALONG THE LINE AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY EASTWARD.

AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SUNDAY...IF SQUALL LINE TIMING REMAINS IN PLACE
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SHORTLY BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS
TAKE OVER AND BEGIN DRYING OUT AND STABLIZING THE LOW LAYERS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO RESULT OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET PLEASANT AND
WARM WITH A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW AND FULL SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY/...ON THE WHOLE A CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEEK FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH IS A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE FROM THE RECENT FLIP-FLOP PATTERN FROM SUMMER TO WINTER AND
BACK AGAIN. DEEP DRY AIR RESIDENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
NORTHERN MEXICO...AIDED BY PERSISTENT 500 MB RIDGING IN THIS AREA
WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW NUDGING THE MASS OF DRY AIR
ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTTOM LINE? A GREAT WEEK
TO ENJOY THE REGION FOR THOSE PLANNING VISITS FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND TRAVEL PERIOD.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM TO HOT SUNDAY
WILL RECEDE TO FAIRLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY /50S TO NEAR 60/. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT ON THE ARRIVAL
OF COOLING NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE END RESULT IS A SEASONABLE DAY
WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH MID DAY BUT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
SLIGHTLY BREEZY MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

WINDS SLACKEN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS WAVE
WHICH ARRIVES AND DIVES THROUGH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS MOST OF THE NIGHT EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE
NOVEMBER AVERAGES. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE
COAST AT DAYBREAK AS ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO BRING MOISTURE BACK BELOW
700 MB BUT FOR NOW HAVE SKY COVER AS PARTLY CLOUDY.

AS FOR TUESDAY...GFS AND ECWMF IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND MOVEMENT OF THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE. THE TAKEWAY IS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COOLING...WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS DIPPING TO
546-552 DM FROM THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH THE RGV BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND 850 TEMPERATURES SLIPPING TOWARD 4-6C
IN THE SAME AREA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE DECK...SOME WHICH WILL TRANSLATE DOWN
TOWARD THE SURFACE AND COULD PRODUCE BREEZIER CONDITIONS THAT
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY MODEL BLENDS. FOR NOW...HAVE SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WOULD NOT
SURPRISE TO SEE THESE VALUES RAMPED UP TOWARD 15-20 KNOTS ON LAND
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS...SUNSHINE
DOMINATES BY AFTERNOON AND WITHOUT A POLAR FEED EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TRIM BACK BELOW AVERAGE BUT STILL ACHIEVE THE
LOWER 70S VALLEY AND AROUND 70 RANCHLANDS...A NICE DAY ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE ARRIVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WINDS SHOULD LAY DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A CLEAR BUT CHILLY
MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THIS POINT
/UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVERALL/. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
TEXAS AS STRONG BUT PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...ABOUT AS
GOOD A TRAVEL DAY AS ONE CAN EXPECT. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS
FANTASTIC AS WELL AND A SHADE WARMER AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH
TO ENJOY.

ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS CYCLE HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEADING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...75 TO
80 OVERALL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EVEN WHERE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
FORM UP.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY WITH MARGINAL CONDITIONS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE. STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN TEXAS TO KEEP A STRONG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BUT COOLER BAY WATERS TO LIMIT THE WIND
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAGUNA. GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN LATE
TODAY BUT RESIDUAL SEAS TO REMAIN HIGH. EXPECTING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND 9 PM AND RACING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS EXITING THE REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
STEADILY LOWERING SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS...15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF QUIETING MONDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SHOT...FRONT NUMBER TWO...OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS
REACHING 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

AS QUICKLY AS WINDS AND SEAS RISE THEY`LL BE DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP QUITE
NICELY FOR THOSE PLANNING PRE-THANKSGIVING BOATING/FISHING TRIPS
INTO THE BAY OR GULF. STILL A HINT OF 5 FOOT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY...BUT INSHORE/NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD BE DELIGHTFUL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  64  82  59 /  30  60   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          80  64  84  59 /  30  60   0   0
HARLINGEN            81  62  84  58 /  30  60   0   0
MCALLEN              82  62  86  58 /  20  40   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  59  87  57 /  30  50   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  67  79  64 /  30  60   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...SHORT TERM/AVIATION
52...LONG TERM









000
FXUS64 KBRO 221008
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
408 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE OFFING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY
INTO THE EVENING. POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BEGINNING TO PICK UP
FORWARD MOMENTUM AS IT DIVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF
THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND EAST OF
THE GULF COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH PLACES DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THE SOUTH SIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING OVER THE REGION. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED AS THIS JET APPROACHES AND MOVES
OVERHEAD. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AT ALL LEVELS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET/SOUTHEASTERLIES STRENGTHENING/AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET
SEEN STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING WITH BOTH
THE LOW LEVEL SE AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW. MOISTURE, LIFT
ARE IN PLACE NOW WE NEED THE INSTABILITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 700MB DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED PRIOR TO MAIN IMPACT
OF THE JET DYNAMICS AND MAY INITIALLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE RGV THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INHIBITING FACTOR MAY BE TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO OVER COME THE LIMITING CAPPING INVERSION.
LOOKING AT ALL FACTORS BELIEVE THERE STILL WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS OR A LINE OF STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START OFF THE DAY
WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION TAKES HOLD. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY BREAK ENOUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR BIT MORE SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 80S. AS FOR THE WIND STILL EXPECTING A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 35KNOTS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO MIX COMPLETELY WITH CLOUDS AND
LIMITED HEATING KEEPING THE FULL WIND POTENTIAL FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE. SO NO WIND ADVISORY BUT SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE LOOKING
WESTWARD AS THUNDERSTORMS GETTING GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
THE HILL COUNTRY. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING OUR CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSITION INTO
A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF SORTS AS THE DIVERGENT FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. TIMING OF
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA IS 6 PM TO 10 PM
AND IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST
POTENTIAL. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS /50-60 MPH/EITHER
WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS ALONG THE LINE OR ALL ALONG THE LINE AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY EASTWARD.

AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SUNDAY...IF SQUALL LINE TIMING REMAINS IN PLACE
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SHORTLY BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS
TAKE OVER AND BEGIN DRYING OUT AND STABLIZING THE LOW LAYERS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO RESULT OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET PLEASANT AND
WARM WITH A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW AND FULL SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY/...ON THE WHOLE A CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEEK FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH IS A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE FROM THE RECENT FLIP-FLOP PATTERN FROM SUMMER TO WINTER AND
BACK AGAIN. DEEP DRY AIR RESIDENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
NORTHERN MEXICO...AIDED BY PERSISTENT 500 MB RIDGING IN THIS AREA
WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW NUDGING THE MASS OF DRY AIR
ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTTOM LINE? A GREAT WEEK
TO ENJOY THE REGION FOR THOSE PLANNING VISITS FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND TRAVEL PERIOD.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM TO HOT SUNDAY
WILL RECEDE TO FAIRLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY /50S TO NEAR 60/. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT ON THE ARRIVAL
OF COOLING NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE END RESULT IS A SEASONABLE DAY
WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH MID DAY BUT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
SLIGHTLY BREEZY MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

WINDS SLACKEN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS WAVE
WHICH ARRIVES AND DIVES THROUGH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS MOST OF THE NIGHT EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE
NOVEMBER AVERAGES. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE
COAST AT DAYBREAK AS ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO BRING MOISTURE BACK BELOW
700 MB BUT FOR NOW HAVE SKY COVER AS PARTLY CLOUDY.

AS FOR TUESDAY...GFS AND ECWMF IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND MOVEMENT OF THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE. THE TAKEWAY IS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COOLING...WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS DIPPING TO
546-552 DM FROM THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH THE RGV BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND 850 TEMPERATURES SLIPPING TOWARD 4-6C
IN THE SAME AREA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE DECK...SOME WHICH WILL TRANSLATE DOWN
TOWARD THE SURFACE AND COULD PRODUCE BREEZIER CONDITIONS THAT
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY MODEL BLENDS. FOR NOW...HAVE SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WOULD NOT
SURPRISE TO SEE THESE VALUES RAMPED UP TOWARD 15-20 KNOTS ON LAND
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS...SUNSHINE
DOMINATES BY AFTERNOON AND WITHOUT A POLAR FEED EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TRIM BACK BELOW AVERAGE BUT STILL ACHIEVE THE
LOWER 70S VALLEY AND AROUND 70 RANCHLANDS...A NICE DAY ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE ARRIVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WINDS SHOULD LAY DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A CLEAR BUT CHILLY
MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THIS POINT
/UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVERALL/. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
TEXAS AS STRONG BUT PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...ABOUT AS
GOOD A TRAVEL DAY AS ONE CAN EXPECT. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS
FANTASTIC AS WELL AND A SHADE WARMER AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH
TO ENJOY.

ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS CYCLE HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEADING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...75 TO
80 OVERALL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EVEN WHERE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
FORM UP.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY WITH MARGINAL CONDITIONS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE. STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN TEXAS TO KEEP A STRONG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BUT COOLER BAY WATERS TO LIMIT THE WIND
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAGUNA. GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN LATE
TODAY BUT RESIDUAL SEAS TO REMAIN HIGH. EXPECTING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND 9 PM AND RACING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS EXITING THE REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
STEADILY LOWERING SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS...15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF QUIETING MONDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SHOT...FRONT NUMBER TWO...OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS
REACHING 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

AS QUICKLY AS WINDS AND SEAS RISE THEY`LL BE DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP QUITE
NICELY FOR THOSE PLANNING PRE-THANKSGIVING BOATING/FISHING TRIPS
INTO THE BAY OR GULF. STILL A HINT OF 5 FOOT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY...BUT INSHORE/NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD BE DELIGHTFUL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  64  82  59 /  30  60   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          80  64  84  59 /  30  60   0   0
HARLINGEN            81  62  84  58 /  30  60   0   0
MCALLEN              82  62  86  58 /  20  40   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  59  87  57 /  30  50   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  67  79  64 /  30  60   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...59/GB
LONG TERM...52/BSG
MARINE...59/52
GRAPHICASTS...CAMPBELL






000
FXUS64 KBRO 221008
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
408 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE OFFING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY
INTO THE EVENING. POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BEGINNING TO PICK UP
FORWARD MOMENTUM AS IT DIVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF
THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND EAST OF
THE GULF COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH PLACES DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THE SOUTH SIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING OVER THE REGION. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED AS THIS JET APPROACHES AND MOVES
OVERHEAD. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AT ALL LEVELS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET/SOUTHEASTERLIES STRENGTHENING/AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET
SEEN STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING WITH BOTH
THE LOW LEVEL SE AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW. MOISTURE, LIFT
ARE IN PLACE NOW WE NEED THE INSTABILITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 700MB DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED PRIOR TO MAIN IMPACT
OF THE JET DYNAMICS AND MAY INITIALLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE RGV THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INHIBITING FACTOR MAY BE TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO OVER COME THE LIMITING CAPPING INVERSION.
LOOKING AT ALL FACTORS BELIEVE THERE STILL WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS OR A LINE OF STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START OFF THE DAY
WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION TAKES HOLD. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY BREAK ENOUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR BIT MORE SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 80S. AS FOR THE WIND STILL EXPECTING A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 35KNOTS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO MIX COMPLETELY WITH CLOUDS AND
LIMITED HEATING KEEPING THE FULL WIND POTENTIAL FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE. SO NO WIND ADVISORY BUT SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE LOOKING
WESTWARD AS THUNDERSTORMS GETTING GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
THE HILL COUNTRY. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING OUR CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSITION INTO
A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF SORTS AS THE DIVERGENT FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. TIMING OF
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA IS 6 PM TO 10 PM
AND IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST
POTENTIAL. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS /50-60 MPH/EITHER
WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS ALONG THE LINE OR ALL ALONG THE LINE AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY EASTWARD.

AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SUNDAY...IF SQUALL LINE TIMING REMAINS IN PLACE
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SHORTLY BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS
TAKE OVER AND BEGIN DRYING OUT AND STABLIZING THE LOW LAYERS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO RESULT OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET PLEASANT AND
WARM WITH A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW AND FULL SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY/...ON THE WHOLE A CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEEK FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH IS A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE FROM THE RECENT FLIP-FLOP PATTERN FROM SUMMER TO WINTER AND
BACK AGAIN. DEEP DRY AIR RESIDENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
NORTHERN MEXICO...AIDED BY PERSISTENT 500 MB RIDGING IN THIS AREA
WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW NUDGING THE MASS OF DRY AIR
ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTTOM LINE? A GREAT WEEK
TO ENJOY THE REGION FOR THOSE PLANNING VISITS FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND TRAVEL PERIOD.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM TO HOT SUNDAY
WILL RECEDE TO FAIRLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY /50S TO NEAR 60/. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT ON THE ARRIVAL
OF COOLING NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE END RESULT IS A SEASONABLE DAY
WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH MID DAY BUT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
SLIGHTLY BREEZY MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

WINDS SLACKEN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS WAVE
WHICH ARRIVES AND DIVES THROUGH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS MOST OF THE NIGHT EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE
NOVEMBER AVERAGES. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE
COAST AT DAYBREAK AS ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO BRING MOISTURE BACK BELOW
700 MB BUT FOR NOW HAVE SKY COVER AS PARTLY CLOUDY.

AS FOR TUESDAY...GFS AND ECWMF IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND MOVEMENT OF THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE. THE TAKEWAY IS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COOLING...WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS DIPPING TO
546-552 DM FROM THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH THE RGV BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND 850 TEMPERATURES SLIPPING TOWARD 4-6C
IN THE SAME AREA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE DECK...SOME WHICH WILL TRANSLATE DOWN
TOWARD THE SURFACE AND COULD PRODUCE BREEZIER CONDITIONS THAT
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY MODEL BLENDS. FOR NOW...HAVE SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WOULD NOT
SURPRISE TO SEE THESE VALUES RAMPED UP TOWARD 15-20 KNOTS ON LAND
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS...SUNSHINE
DOMINATES BY AFTERNOON AND WITHOUT A POLAR FEED EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TRIM BACK BELOW AVERAGE BUT STILL ACHIEVE THE
LOWER 70S VALLEY AND AROUND 70 RANCHLANDS...A NICE DAY ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE ARRIVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WINDS SHOULD LAY DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A CLEAR BUT CHILLY
MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THIS POINT
/UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVERALL/. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
TEXAS AS STRONG BUT PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...ABOUT AS
GOOD A TRAVEL DAY AS ONE CAN EXPECT. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS
FANTASTIC AS WELL AND A SHADE WARMER AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH
TO ENJOY.

ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS CYCLE HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEADING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...75 TO
80 OVERALL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EVEN WHERE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
FORM UP.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY WITH MARGINAL CONDITIONS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE. STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN TEXAS TO KEEP A STRONG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BUT COOLER BAY WATERS TO LIMIT THE WIND
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAGUNA. GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN LATE
TODAY BUT RESIDUAL SEAS TO REMAIN HIGH. EXPECTING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND 9 PM AND RACING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS EXITING THE REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
STEADILY LOWERING SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS...15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF QUIETING MONDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SHOT...FRONT NUMBER TWO...OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS
REACHING 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

AS QUICKLY AS WINDS AND SEAS RISE THEY`LL BE DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP QUITE
NICELY FOR THOSE PLANNING PRE-THANKSGIVING BOATING/FISHING TRIPS
INTO THE BAY OR GULF. STILL A HINT OF 5 FOOT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY...BUT INSHORE/NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD BE DELIGHTFUL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  64  82  59 /  30  60   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          80  64  84  59 /  30  60   0   0
HARLINGEN            81  62  84  58 /  30  60   0   0
MCALLEN              82  62  86  58 /  20  40   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  59  87  57 /  30  50   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  67  79  64 /  30  60   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...59/GB
LONG TERM...52/BSG
MARINE...59/52
GRAPHICASTS...CAMPBELL







000
FXUS64 KBRO 221008
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
408 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE OFFING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY
INTO THE EVENING. POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BEGINNING TO PICK UP
FORWARD MOMENTUM AS IT DIVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF
THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND EAST OF
THE GULF COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH PLACES DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THE SOUTH SIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING OVER THE REGION. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED AS THIS JET APPROACHES AND MOVES
OVERHEAD. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AT ALL LEVELS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET/SOUTHEASTERLIES STRENGTHENING/AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET
SEEN STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING WITH BOTH
THE LOW LEVEL SE AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW. MOISTURE, LIFT
ARE IN PLACE NOW WE NEED THE INSTABILITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 700MB DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED PRIOR TO MAIN IMPACT
OF THE JET DYNAMICS AND MAY INITIALLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE RGV THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INHIBITING FACTOR MAY BE TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO OVER COME THE LIMITING CAPPING INVERSION.
LOOKING AT ALL FACTORS BELIEVE THERE STILL WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS OR A LINE OF STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START OFF THE DAY
WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION TAKES HOLD. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY BREAK ENOUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR BIT MORE SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 80S. AS FOR THE WIND STILL EXPECTING A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 35KNOTS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO MIX COMPLETELY WITH CLOUDS AND
LIMITED HEATING KEEPING THE FULL WIND POTENTIAL FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE. SO NO WIND ADVISORY BUT SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE LOOKING
WESTWARD AS THUNDERSTORMS GETTING GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
THE HILL COUNTRY. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING OUR CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSITION INTO
A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF SORTS AS THE DIVERGENT FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. TIMING OF
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA IS 6 PM TO 10 PM
AND IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST
POTENTIAL. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS /50-60 MPH/EITHER
WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS ALONG THE LINE OR ALL ALONG THE LINE AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY EASTWARD.

AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SUNDAY...IF SQUALL LINE TIMING REMAINS IN PLACE
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SHORTLY BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS
TAKE OVER AND BEGIN DRYING OUT AND STABLIZING THE LOW LAYERS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO RESULT OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET PLEASANT AND
WARM WITH A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW AND FULL SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY/...ON THE WHOLE A CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEEK FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH IS A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE FROM THE RECENT FLIP-FLOP PATTERN FROM SUMMER TO WINTER AND
BACK AGAIN. DEEP DRY AIR RESIDENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
NORTHERN MEXICO...AIDED BY PERSISTENT 500 MB RIDGING IN THIS AREA
WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW NUDGING THE MASS OF DRY AIR
ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTTOM LINE? A GREAT WEEK
TO ENJOY THE REGION FOR THOSE PLANNING VISITS FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND TRAVEL PERIOD.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM TO HOT SUNDAY
WILL RECEDE TO FAIRLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY /50S TO NEAR 60/. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT ON THE ARRIVAL
OF COOLING NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE END RESULT IS A SEASONABLE DAY
WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH MID DAY BUT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
SLIGHTLY BREEZY MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

WINDS SLACKEN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS WAVE
WHICH ARRIVES AND DIVES THROUGH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS MOST OF THE NIGHT EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE
NOVEMBER AVERAGES. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE
COAST AT DAYBREAK AS ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO BRING MOISTURE BACK BELOW
700 MB BUT FOR NOW HAVE SKY COVER AS PARTLY CLOUDY.

AS FOR TUESDAY...GFS AND ECWMF IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND MOVEMENT OF THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE. THE TAKEWAY IS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COOLING...WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS DIPPING TO
546-552 DM FROM THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH THE RGV BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND 850 TEMPERATURES SLIPPING TOWARD 4-6C
IN THE SAME AREA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE DECK...SOME WHICH WILL TRANSLATE DOWN
TOWARD THE SURFACE AND COULD PRODUCE BREEZIER CONDITIONS THAT
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY MODEL BLENDS. FOR NOW...HAVE SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WOULD NOT
SURPRISE TO SEE THESE VALUES RAMPED UP TOWARD 15-20 KNOTS ON LAND
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS...SUNSHINE
DOMINATES BY AFTERNOON AND WITHOUT A POLAR FEED EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TRIM BACK BELOW AVERAGE BUT STILL ACHIEVE THE
LOWER 70S VALLEY AND AROUND 70 RANCHLANDS...A NICE DAY ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE ARRIVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WINDS SHOULD LAY DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A CLEAR BUT CHILLY
MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THIS POINT
/UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVERALL/. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
TEXAS AS STRONG BUT PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...ABOUT AS
GOOD A TRAVEL DAY AS ONE CAN EXPECT. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS
FANTASTIC AS WELL AND A SHADE WARMER AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH
TO ENJOY.

ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS CYCLE HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEADING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...75 TO
80 OVERALL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EVEN WHERE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
FORM UP.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY WITH MARGINAL CONDITIONS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE. STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN TEXAS TO KEEP A STRONG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BUT COOLER BAY WATERS TO LIMIT THE WIND
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAGUNA. GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN LATE
TODAY BUT RESIDUAL SEAS TO REMAIN HIGH. EXPECTING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND 9 PM AND RACING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS EXITING THE REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
STEADILY LOWERING SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS...15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF QUIETING MONDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SHOT...FRONT NUMBER TWO...OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS
REACHING 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

AS QUICKLY AS WINDS AND SEAS RISE THEY`LL BE DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP QUITE
NICELY FOR THOSE PLANNING PRE-THANKSGIVING BOATING/FISHING TRIPS
INTO THE BAY OR GULF. STILL A HINT OF 5 FOOT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY...BUT INSHORE/NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD BE DELIGHTFUL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  64  82  59 /  30  60   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          80  64  84  59 /  30  60   0   0
HARLINGEN            81  62  84  58 /  30  60   0   0
MCALLEN              82  62  86  58 /  20  40   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  59  87  57 /  30  50   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  67  79  64 /  30  60   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...59/GB
LONG TERM...52/BSG
MARINE...59/52
GRAPHICASTS...CAMPBELL






000
FXUS64 KBRO 221008
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
408 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE OFFING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY
INTO THE EVENING. POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BEGINNING TO PICK UP
FORWARD MOMENTUM AS IT DIVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF
THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND EAST OF
THE GULF COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH PLACES DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THE SOUTH SIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING OVER THE REGION. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED AS THIS JET APPROACHES AND MOVES
OVERHEAD. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AT ALL LEVELS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET/SOUTHEASTERLIES STRENGTHENING/AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET
SEEN STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING WITH BOTH
THE LOW LEVEL SE AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW. MOISTURE, LIFT
ARE IN PLACE NOW WE NEED THE INSTABILITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 700MB DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED PRIOR TO MAIN IMPACT
OF THE JET DYNAMICS AND MAY INITIALLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE RGV THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INHIBITING FACTOR MAY BE TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO OVER COME THE LIMITING CAPPING INVERSION.
LOOKING AT ALL FACTORS BELIEVE THERE STILL WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS OR A LINE OF STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START OFF THE DAY
WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION TAKES HOLD. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY BREAK ENOUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR BIT MORE SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 80S. AS FOR THE WIND STILL EXPECTING A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 35KNOTS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO MIX COMPLETELY WITH CLOUDS AND
LIMITED HEATING KEEPING THE FULL WIND POTENTIAL FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE. SO NO WIND ADVISORY BUT SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE LOOKING
WESTWARD AS THUNDERSTORMS GETTING GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
THE HILL COUNTRY. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING OUR CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSITION INTO
A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF SORTS AS THE DIVERGENT FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. TIMING OF
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA IS 6 PM TO 10 PM
AND IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST
POTENTIAL. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS /50-60 MPH/EITHER
WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS ALONG THE LINE OR ALL ALONG THE LINE AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY EASTWARD.

AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SUNDAY...IF SQUALL LINE TIMING REMAINS IN PLACE
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SHORTLY BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS
TAKE OVER AND BEGIN DRYING OUT AND STABLIZING THE LOW LAYERS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO RESULT OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET PLEASANT AND
WARM WITH A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW AND FULL SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY/...ON THE WHOLE A CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEEK FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH IS A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE FROM THE RECENT FLIP-FLOP PATTERN FROM SUMMER TO WINTER AND
BACK AGAIN. DEEP DRY AIR RESIDENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
NORTHERN MEXICO...AIDED BY PERSISTENT 500 MB RIDGING IN THIS AREA
WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW NUDGING THE MASS OF DRY AIR
ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTTOM LINE? A GREAT WEEK
TO ENJOY THE REGION FOR THOSE PLANNING VISITS FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND TRAVEL PERIOD.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM TO HOT SUNDAY
WILL RECEDE TO FAIRLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY /50S TO NEAR 60/. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT ON THE ARRIVAL
OF COOLING NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE END RESULT IS A SEASONABLE DAY
WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH MID DAY BUT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
SLIGHTLY BREEZY MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

WINDS SLACKEN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS WAVE
WHICH ARRIVES AND DIVES THROUGH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS MOST OF THE NIGHT EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE
NOVEMBER AVERAGES. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE
COAST AT DAYBREAK AS ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO BRING MOISTURE BACK BELOW
700 MB BUT FOR NOW HAVE SKY COVER AS PARTLY CLOUDY.

AS FOR TUESDAY...GFS AND ECWMF IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND MOVEMENT OF THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE. THE TAKEWAY IS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COOLING...WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS DIPPING TO
546-552 DM FROM THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH THE RGV BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND 850 TEMPERATURES SLIPPING TOWARD 4-6C
IN THE SAME AREA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE DECK...SOME WHICH WILL TRANSLATE DOWN
TOWARD THE SURFACE AND COULD PRODUCE BREEZIER CONDITIONS THAT
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY MODEL BLENDS. FOR NOW...HAVE SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WOULD NOT
SURPRISE TO SEE THESE VALUES RAMPED UP TOWARD 15-20 KNOTS ON LAND
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS...SUNSHINE
DOMINATES BY AFTERNOON AND WITHOUT A POLAR FEED EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TRIM BACK BELOW AVERAGE BUT STILL ACHIEVE THE
LOWER 70S VALLEY AND AROUND 70 RANCHLANDS...A NICE DAY ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE ARRIVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WINDS SHOULD LAY DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A CLEAR BUT CHILLY
MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THIS POINT
/UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVERALL/. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
TEXAS AS STRONG BUT PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...ABOUT AS
GOOD A TRAVEL DAY AS ONE CAN EXPECT. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS
FANTASTIC AS WELL AND A SHADE WARMER AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH
TO ENJOY.

ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS CYCLE HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEADING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...75 TO
80 OVERALL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EVEN WHERE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
FORM UP.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY WITH MARGINAL CONDITIONS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE. STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN TEXAS TO KEEP A STRONG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BUT COOLER BAY WATERS TO LIMIT THE WIND
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAGUNA. GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN LATE
TODAY BUT RESIDUAL SEAS TO REMAIN HIGH. EXPECTING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND 9 PM AND RACING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS EXITING THE REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
STEADILY LOWERING SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS...15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 6 FEET WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF QUIETING MONDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SHOT...FRONT NUMBER TWO...OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS
REACHING 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

AS QUICKLY AS WINDS AND SEAS RISE THEY`LL BE DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP QUITE
NICELY FOR THOSE PLANNING PRE-THANKSGIVING BOATING/FISHING TRIPS
INTO THE BAY OR GULF. STILL A HINT OF 5 FOOT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY...BUT INSHORE/NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD BE DELIGHTFUL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  64  82  59 /  30  60   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          80  64  84  59 /  30  60   0   0
HARLINGEN            81  62  84  58 /  30  60   0   0
MCALLEN              82  62  86  58 /  20  40   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  59  87  57 /  30  50   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  67  79  64 /  30  60   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...59/GB
LONG TERM...52/BSG
MARINE...59/52
GRAPHICASTS...CAMPBELL







000
FXUS64 KBRO 220535 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1135 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT
STREAMING INTO THE CWA FROM MEXICO WHILE A SE FLOW CONTINUES TO
FEED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE TERMINALS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING BEGINNING AND SE WINDS INCREASING. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM
TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS. DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE BECOMING VERY STRONG AT TIMES WITH
SUSTAINED FLOW OF 20-25 KNOTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...AN INCREASED IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT
WITH MVFR GIGS THROUGH SUNRISE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY INCREASING THE SE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 30 TO 35 KNOTS BY 18Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IMPACTS...
WINDY SATURDAY...CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SAT PM.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD 70 TO 90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 250 MB FLOW IS
HELPING WORK WITH THIS TROUGH/LOW IN INCREASING THE LOW LAYER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY WITH 20 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF...PER BUOY AND ASCAT
OBSERVATION...AND 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH OVER LAND.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WITHIN LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES ARE ALSO
KEEPING A CLOUD LAYER AT AROUND 2000 TO 4000 FT WHICH IS SPARKING A
FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE DAY.

TONIGHT...
850/925MB PRESSURE GRADIENT PEAKS LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 35 TO 45 KNOT WINDS 3000 TO
5000 FT OFF THE SURFACE...WHICH TEND TO BE UNDERDONE IN STRONG UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ONE. COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER SURFACE WINDS...AROUND 15 MPH OR SO. WEAK WARM
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AREA WIDE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

SATURDAY...
WINDY AREA WIDE...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IN RANCHLANDS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MOST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE PEAK LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL SHIFT WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE HIGHWAY 77/281 CORRIDOR. GUSTS
OF 35 TO 40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 3 TO 4 PM BEFORE
THE MAIN TROUGH GETS CLOSER AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WEAK WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER IN PLACE BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S.

LESS CERTAIN IS THE THUNDERSTORM RISK.  STRONG DOWN SLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE EVIDENT IN THE 700MB LAYER THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
COMMONLY RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING IN THE
850/700MB LAYER OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS THESE WINDS COME DOWN OFF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND MEXICAN PLATEAU. 12Z GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS DRYING FAIRLY WELL WHILE THE NAM ONLY BRINGS THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS LAYER TO ABOUT THE RIO GRANDE BEFORE THE SIGNAL DIMINISHES. FEEL
CONFIDENT THIS LAYER WILL WIN OUT DURING THE DAYTIME IN THE RGV
METRO AREAS AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRIER. THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF
A JET MAXIMUM ARRIVING DURING THE DAY PROVIDES SOME DIVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHO WILL ALSO BE FURTHER FROM THE INFLUENCE
OF DOWNSLOPING...SO CARRIED HIGHER POPS IN NORTHERN JIM
HOGG/BROOKS/KENEDY COUNTIES WHERE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODEST
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREA WIDE...BEST CHANCES REMAIN OVER
THE BRUSH COUNTRY.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD
ERADICATE ANY RESIDUAL CAPPING. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO INITIATE
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH THE
TRAJECTORY SUPPORTING BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE HEBBRONVILLE AND
FALFURRIAS AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS WEAK AND A STRONGER 850MB WESTERLY WIND SHIFT IS MARKED
BY MUCH DRYER AND WARMER AIR THAT WILL QUICKLY QUASH ANY SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE NIGHT
HOWEVER WITH VALUES FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR LARGE SCALE STORM ORGANIZATION.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CONVECTION THAT INITIATES ON THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO THE AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. DURING THIS TIME A FAIR BALANCE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND STRONG SHEAR COULD WORK WITH CONVERGENCE/COLD POOLS GENERATED BY
CONVECTION TO KEEP A RELATIVELY STRONG COMPLEX MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA. SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE ALL NIGHT BUT IT APPEARS THE
SURFACE TO 850MB TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE GOING TO BE
SOMEWHAT  DISORGANIZED WITH STRONGLY ADVANCING WESTERLIES FROM 850MB
AIDING IN REDUCING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT ARRIVES. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME OF THE LATER THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WOULD GREATLY REDUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND. A BETTER CHANCE EXISTS OVER THE GULF
WATERS FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WIND WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE PLENTIFUL AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER LONGER. IN ALL IT
APPEARS THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
HIGHER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH DRY AIR TAKING
OVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE 80S...UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PROVIDE A WEAK DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO HELP PROP UP
TEMPS. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP LOW TEMPS RADIATE DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A MARITIME
POLAR AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA MID MONDAY...AND WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH A FEW
EXTRA CLOUDS IN THE AREA...BUT NOT MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE DEFINITIVELY TO MODERATE NORTHWEST...THOUGH A BIT
STRONGER OVER THE WATER...RESULTING IN ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS FOR
A FEW HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL MOVE OVER EAST TEXAS WITH LITTLE
IMPACT THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS
BEGINNING MONDAY AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS MARITIME POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 40S...BENEFITING
FROM CLEAR SKIES TO GET BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AND WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST WITH AN UPWARD
TREND IN DEW POINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. COASTAL SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE GULF WATERS OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT SATURDAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD BE MORE
MODERATE...AND SEAS MAY FALL BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MDT NORTH MONDAY MORNING AS
A MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ARRIVES FROM UPSTREAM. A FEW
HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL AGAIN PUSH NORTH WINDS TOWARD 20 KTS
AND LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO SIX OR SEVEN FEET TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST AS THE UPSTREAM
RIDGING SHIFTS EAST...AND PUSHES HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF IT OUT
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  82  66  81 /  20  30  40   0
BROWNSVILLE          72  83  66  83 /  20  20  40   0
HARLINGEN            71  84  64  83 /  20  20  40   0
MCALLEN              70  86  62  85 /  20  10  40   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  87  59  86 /  20  20  40   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  78  68  79 /  30  30  50   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67...AVIATIOIN
59...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KBRO 220535 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1135 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT
STREAMING INTO THE CWA FROM MEXICO WHILE A SE FLOW CONTINUES TO
FEED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE TERMINALS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING BEGINNING AND SE WINDS INCREASING. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM
TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS. DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE BECOMING VERY STRONG AT TIMES WITH
SUSTAINED FLOW OF 20-25 KNOTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...AN INCREASED IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT
WITH MVFR GIGS THROUGH SUNRISE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY INCREASING THE SE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 30 TO 35 KNOTS BY 18Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IMPACTS...
WINDY SATURDAY...CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SAT PM.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD 70 TO 90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 250 MB FLOW IS
HELPING WORK WITH THIS TROUGH/LOW IN INCREASING THE LOW LAYER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY WITH 20 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF...PER BUOY AND ASCAT
OBSERVATION...AND 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH OVER LAND.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WITHIN LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES ARE ALSO
KEEPING A CLOUD LAYER AT AROUND 2000 TO 4000 FT WHICH IS SPARKING A
FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE DAY.

TONIGHT...
850/925MB PRESSURE GRADIENT PEAKS LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 35 TO 45 KNOT WINDS 3000 TO
5000 FT OFF THE SURFACE...WHICH TEND TO BE UNDERDONE IN STRONG UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ONE. COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER SURFACE WINDS...AROUND 15 MPH OR SO. WEAK WARM
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AREA WIDE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

SATURDAY...
WINDY AREA WIDE...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IN RANCHLANDS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MOST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE PEAK LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL SHIFT WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE HIGHWAY 77/281 CORRIDOR. GUSTS
OF 35 TO 40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 3 TO 4 PM BEFORE
THE MAIN TROUGH GETS CLOSER AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WEAK WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER IN PLACE BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S.

LESS CERTAIN IS THE THUNDERSTORM RISK.  STRONG DOWN SLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE EVIDENT IN THE 700MB LAYER THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
COMMONLY RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING IN THE
850/700MB LAYER OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS THESE WINDS COME DOWN OFF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND MEXICAN PLATEAU. 12Z GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS DRYING FAIRLY WELL WHILE THE NAM ONLY BRINGS THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS LAYER TO ABOUT THE RIO GRANDE BEFORE THE SIGNAL DIMINISHES. FEEL
CONFIDENT THIS LAYER WILL WIN OUT DURING THE DAYTIME IN THE RGV
METRO AREAS AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRIER. THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF
A JET MAXIMUM ARRIVING DURING THE DAY PROVIDES SOME DIVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHO WILL ALSO BE FURTHER FROM THE INFLUENCE
OF DOWNSLOPING...SO CARRIED HIGHER POPS IN NORTHERN JIM
HOGG/BROOKS/KENEDY COUNTIES WHERE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODEST
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREA WIDE...BEST CHANCES REMAIN OVER
THE BRUSH COUNTRY.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD
ERADICATE ANY RESIDUAL CAPPING. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO INITIATE
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH THE
TRAJECTORY SUPPORTING BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE HEBBRONVILLE AND
FALFURRIAS AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS WEAK AND A STRONGER 850MB WESTERLY WIND SHIFT IS MARKED
BY MUCH DRYER AND WARMER AIR THAT WILL QUICKLY QUASH ANY SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE NIGHT
HOWEVER WITH VALUES FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR LARGE SCALE STORM ORGANIZATION.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CONVECTION THAT INITIATES ON THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO THE AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. DURING THIS TIME A FAIR BALANCE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND STRONG SHEAR COULD WORK WITH CONVERGENCE/COLD POOLS GENERATED BY
CONVECTION TO KEEP A RELATIVELY STRONG COMPLEX MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA. SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE ALL NIGHT BUT IT APPEARS THE
SURFACE TO 850MB TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE GOING TO BE
SOMEWHAT  DISORGANIZED WITH STRONGLY ADVANCING WESTERLIES FROM 850MB
AIDING IN REDUCING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT ARRIVES. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME OF THE LATER THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WOULD GREATLY REDUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND. A BETTER CHANCE EXISTS OVER THE GULF
WATERS FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WIND WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE PLENTIFUL AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER LONGER. IN ALL IT
APPEARS THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
HIGHER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH DRY AIR TAKING
OVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE 80S...UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PROVIDE A WEAK DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO HELP PROP UP
TEMPS. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP LOW TEMPS RADIATE DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A MARITIME
POLAR AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA MID MONDAY...AND WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH A FEW
EXTRA CLOUDS IN THE AREA...BUT NOT MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE DEFINITIVELY TO MODERATE NORTHWEST...THOUGH A BIT
STRONGER OVER THE WATER...RESULTING IN ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS FOR
A FEW HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL MOVE OVER EAST TEXAS WITH LITTLE
IMPACT THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS
BEGINNING MONDAY AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS MARITIME POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 40S...BENEFITING
FROM CLEAR SKIES TO GET BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AND WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST WITH AN UPWARD
TREND IN DEW POINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. COASTAL SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE GULF WATERS OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT SATURDAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD BE MORE
MODERATE...AND SEAS MAY FALL BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MDT NORTH MONDAY MORNING AS
A MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ARRIVES FROM UPSTREAM. A FEW
HOURS OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL AGAIN PUSH NORTH WINDS TOWARD 20 KTS
AND LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO SIX OR SEVEN FEET TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST AS THE UPSTREAM
RIDGING SHIFTS EAST...AND PUSHES HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF IT OUT
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  82  66  81 /  20  30  40   0
BROWNSVILLE          72  83  66  83 /  20  20  40   0
HARLINGEN            71  84  64  83 /  20  20  40   0
MCALLEN              70  86  62  85 /  20  10  40   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  87  59  86 /  20  20  40   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  78  68  79 /  30  30  50   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67...AVIATIOIN
59...SHORT TERM






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities