000
FXUS64 KBRO 251731 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1231 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...CU FIELD CONTINUES TO BUBBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GULF
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE NORTH...WITH A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS TRYING TO FORM TO
THE SOUTH. WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN...KEPT VCTS OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.SMALL POSSIBILITIES OF
RAIN AT ALL THREE SITES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. CLOUD DECK
THINS BRIEFLY BEFORE SUNSET...BUT RETURNS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. BETTER
CLEARING AS RIDGING ALOFT RETURNS IN THE WAKE TO TODAYS SHORTWAVE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...WELL SO MUCH FOR A DRY FORECAST
IN THE SHORT TERM. IN THE WAKE OF THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
THAT ROLLED OUT OF MEXICO AND ACROSS MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA RIGHT
NOW...POSSIBLY DUE TO OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LOCALLY...BUT MORE
BROADLY DUE TO 500 MB LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE LONE STAR STATE
AT THIS TIME. MODELS 24 HOURS AGO HAD THIS FEATURE AS A SIMPLE OPEN
TROUGH THAT WAS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION...WITH
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING ITS REIGN IN ITS WAKE. NOW...THE
GFS...NAM...AND EUROPEAN MODELS ALL GENERALLY INDICATE A CLOSED LOW
OVER TEXAS...WITH VARYING DEGREES OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. GFS APPEARS TO BE THE DRIEST
AND INDICATES LITTLE PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE EUROPEAN SUGGESTS
ISOLATED CONVECTION...AND THE NAM GOES MORE SCATTERED. DECIDED TO GO
MORE EUROPEAN FOR TODAY...A DECISION THAT WILL LEAVE US IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH NEIGHBORING WFO CRP...AND IS A SLIGHT TREND UPWARD
FROM WHAT WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS HERE. WOULD NOT AT
ALL BE SURPRISED IF INCOMING SHIFTS RAISE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE A
FEW NOTCHES UPWARDS...ESPECIALLY IF DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES AN
ALREADY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. OPTED TO GO WITH NO RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...AS THE 500 MB LOW APPEARS TO LIFT NORTHEAST...LEAVING
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THE MORE STABLE BACK
SIDE OF THAT FEATURE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAINFALL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE IT TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT STILL VERY WARM.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS. AS THE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS SE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT GULF MOISTURE MAKING THE AREA MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING WILL
PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH. THE SE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER
BY FRIDAY BUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK.
MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 18 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 21 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER
5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FOR
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COAST WILL DIG SOUTHWARD BY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY INCREASING THE SE WINDS. THE SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD UP TO 6 FEET WITH CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF WATERS. THIS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE WINDS LOWER. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK AS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON
ISOLATED SHOWERS. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
64/51
000
FXUS64 KBRO 250822
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
322 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...WELL SO MUCH FOR A DRY FORECAST
IN THE SHORT TERM. IN THE WAKE OF THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
THAT ROLLED OUT OF MEXICO AND ACROSS MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA RIGHT
NOW...POSSIBLY DUE TO OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LOCALLY...BUT MORE
BROADLY DUE TO 500 MB LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE LONE STAR STATE
AT THIS TIME. MODELS 24 HOURS AGO HAD THIS FEATURE AS A SIMPLE OPEN
TROUGH THAT WAS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION...WITH
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING ITS REIGN IN ITS WAKE. NOW...THE
GFS...NAM...AND EUROPEAN MODELS ALL GENERALLY INDICATE A CLOSED LOW
OVER TEXAS...WITH VARYING DEGREES OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. GFS APPEARS TO BE THE DRIEST
AND INDICATES LITTLE PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE EUROPEAN SUGGESTS
ISOLATED CONVECTION...AND THE NAM GOES MORE SCATTERED. DECIDED TO GO
MORE EUROPEAN FOR TODAY...A DECISION THAT WILL LEAVE US IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH NEIGHBORING WFO CRP...AND IS A SLIGHT TREND UPWARD
FROM WHAT WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS HERE. WOULD NOT AT
ALL BE SURPRISED IF INCOMING SHIFTS RAISE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE A
FEW NOTCHES UPWARDS...ESPECIALLY IF DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES AN
ALREADY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. OPTED TO GO WITH NO RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...AS THE 500 MB LOW APPEARS TO LIFT NORTHEAST...LEAVING
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THE MORE STABLE BACK
SIDE OF THAT FEATURE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAINFALL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE IT TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT STILL VERY WARM.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS. AS THE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS SE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT GULF MOISTURE MAKING THE AREA MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING WILL
PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH. THE SE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER
BY FRIDAY BUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 18 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 21 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER
5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FOR
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COAST WILL DIG SOUTHWARD BY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY INCREASING THE SE WINDS. THE SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD UP TO 6 FEET WITH CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF WATERS. THIS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE WINDS LOWER. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK AS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON
ISOLATED SHOWERS. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 75 86 74 / 20 0 0 10
BROWNSVILLE 89 75 89 75 / 20 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 90 74 90 73 / 20 0 0 10
MCALLEN 92 74 93 74 / 20 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 94 75 96 74 / 20 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 76 85 76 / 20 0 0 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
66/67
000
FXUS64 KBRO 250534 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1234 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AS ANTICIPATED OVER BRO
AND HRL...AND HAVE BEEN TO SLOW TO DEVELOP AT MFE...BUT SHOULD
GIVEN THAT NEIGHBORING EBG IS CURRENTLY BKN014. THESE CEILINGS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TOMORROW...BREEZY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ASSIST IN CEILINGS RISING
THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...REMOVED POPS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE
INSERTED OR MAINTAINED ACROSS ALL OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS
STREAMER SHOWERS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR POPS...QPF AND SKY COVER FOR THIS
EVENING. INCREASED POPS FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DIMINISHING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER
UNTIL 10 PM OR SO.
AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED INTO THE
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KMFE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT KHRL AROUND 02Z AND IF LESS LIKELY TO IMPACT KBRO.
THEREFORE NO SHRA WAS INTRODUCED INTO THEIR TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY RETURN AT ALL THREE SITES AFTER
SUNSET AND SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 1500 FEET A FEW HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS MAY BE SLOW TO LIFT SAT MORNING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
RUNNING FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY SOUTHWARD TO LAREDO AND
CONTINUING INTO MEXICO MOVING EAST...BEING PUSHED BY DUAL MCVS
CENTERED IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND NEAR KCOT. WHILE GOOD LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE /PW AT KBRO WAS 1.79 INCHES THIS MORNING/
AND GOOD DAYTIME HEATING GOING FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY...LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT SHEARING WILL PRECLUDE THESE FORM GETTING TOO HEFTY
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED POP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE VALLEY. MAIN
THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS NEARER TO THE
MCV AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL KEEP AN EYE OF END OF LINE CELL FOR
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED SHEAR ENHANCEMENTS. THE MCS WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE DEPARTS TO THE NE.
MODELS ARE NOW MORE IN LINE WITH PART OF THE IMPULSE WRAPPING BACK
AROUND THE RIDGE AND REMAINING OVER TEXAS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT...PUSHING THE RIDGE FURTHER TO THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY TO THE REGION...BUT LESSER AMOUNTS
THAN TODAY. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A SMALL RAIN CHANCE OUT WEST
AGAIN TOMORROW.MORE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TOMORROW WILL HOLD BACK
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES...HOVERING A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 90...WITH LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
ERODED AWAY SOME IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS A PRETTY STRONG WEST
COAST TROUGH DIGS EAST AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE DESERT SW. THE SW
FLOW ALOFT INDUCED BY THIS TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL TEND TO DRY OUT
AND STABILIZE THE ATMS LATER NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES CLOSER INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TOWARDS NEXT THURS
AND FRI. THE ECMWF REFLECTS A SHARPER 500 MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE DESERT SW ON AND AFTER WED VERSUS THE GFS. THIS IS THE
BIGGEST DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE.
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBSIDENT RIDGING AND DRYING OF THE
ATMS THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO. THE ECMWF TEMPS HAVE A LITTLE
MORE WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MEX MOS. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE MEX MOS IS PRETTY DECENT THROUGH NEXT WED WITH A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY SHOWING UP FOR THURS AND FRI.
WILL WARM UP HIGH TEMPS A BIT THROUGHOUT THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD
MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF NUMBERS. MIN TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED HERE. WILL INCREASE THE POPS A BIT IN
THE LONGER RANGE BUT WILL STILL LEAVE AS SILENT 10% AT THIS TIME
AS AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT OF ANY MEAURABLE RAINFALL DEVELOPING LATER
NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGING.
MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LITTLE DISRUPTION OF THE
SFC PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUES THE SE FLOW FOR SOUTH TEXAS. SOME
INCREASED BREEZES MAY PICK UP LATER TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD ACROSS WEST KANSAS. GENERALLY NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT
BECOMING 15 TO 20 KNOTS TOMORROW. NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED...BUT
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE SOME CAUTION WITH THE BREEZES TOMORROW.
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 4 FEET FOR THE GULF.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PGF WILL INCREASE IN THE LONGER
RANGE PERIOD DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRETTY STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH THE
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE LATER CWF PERIODS UP CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS FOR
BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
000
FXUS64 KBRO 250233 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
933 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...REMOVED POPS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE
INSERTED OR MAINTAINED ACROSS ALL OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS
STREAMER SHOWERS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR POPS...QPF AND SKY COVER FOR THIS
EVENING. INCREASED POPS FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DIMINISHING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER
UNTIL 10 PM OR SO.
AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED INTO THE
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KMFE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT KHRL AROUND 02Z AND IF LESS LIKELY TO IMPACT KBRO.
THEREFORE NO SHRA WAS INTRODUCED INTO THEIR TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY RETURN AT ALL THREE SITES AFTER
SUNSET AND SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 1500 FEET A FEW HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS MAY BE SLOW TO LIFT SAT MORNING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
RUNNING FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY SOUTHWARD TO LAREDO AND
CONTINUING INTO MEXICO MOVING EAST...BEING PUSHED BY DUAL MCVS
CENTERED IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND NEAR KCOT. WHILE GOOD LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE /PW AT KBRO WAS 1.79 INCHES THIS MORNING/
AND GOOD DAYTIME HEATING GOING FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY...LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT SHEARING WILL PRECLUDE THESE FORM GETTING TOO HEFTY
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED POP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE VALLEY. MAIN
THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS NEARER TO THE
MCV AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL KEEP AN EYE OF END OF LINE CELL FOR
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED SHEAR ENHANCEMENTS. THE MCS WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE DEPARTS TO THE NE.
MODELS ARE NOW MORE IN LINE WITH PART OF THE IMPULSE WRAPPING BACK
AROUND THE RIDGE AND REMAINING OVER TEXAS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT...PUSHING THE RIDGE FURTHER TO THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY TO THE REGION...BUT LESSER AMOUNTS
THAN TODAY. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A SMALL RAIN CHANCE OUT WEST
AGAIN TOMORROW.MORE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TOMORROW WILL HOLD BACK
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES...HOVERING A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 90...WITH LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
ERODED AWAY SOME IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS A PRETTY STRONG WEST
COAST TROUGH DIGS EAST AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE DESERT SW. THE SW
FLOW ALOFT INDUCED BY THIS TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL TEND TO DRY OUT
AND STABILIZE THE ATMS LATER NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES CLOSER INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TOWARDS NEXT THURS
AND FRI. THE ECMWF REFLECTS A SHARPER 500 MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE DESERT SW ON AND AFTER WED VERSUS THE GFS. THIS IS THE
BIGGEST DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE.
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBSIDENT RIDGING AND DRYING OF THE
ATMS THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO. THE ECMWF TEMPS HAVE A LITTLE
MORE WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MEX MOS. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE MEX MOS IS PRETTY DECENT THROUGH NEXT WED WITH A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY SHOWING UP FOR THURS AND FRI.
WILL WARM UP HIGH TEMPS A BIT THROUGHOUT THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD
MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF NUMBERS. MIN TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED HERE. WILL INCREASE THE POPS A BIT IN
THE LONGER RANGE BUT WILL STILL LEAVE AS SILENT 10% AT THIS TIME
AS AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT OF ANY MEAURABLE RAINFALL DEVELOPING LATER
NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGING.
MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LITTLE DISRUPTION OF THE
SFC PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUES THE SE FLOW FOR SOUTH TEXAS. SOME
INCREASED BREEZES MAY PICK UP LATER TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD ACROSS WEST KANSAS. GENERALLY NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT
BECOMING 15 TO 20 KNOTS TOMORROW. NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED...BUT
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE SOME CAUTION WITH THE BREEZES TOMORROW.
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 4 FEET FOR THE GULF.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PGF WILL INCREASE IN THE LONGER
RANGE PERIOD DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRETTY STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH THE
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE LATER CWF PERIODS UP CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS FOR
BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
51/61
000
FXUS64 KBRO 250100 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
800 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR POPS...QPF AND SKY COVER FOR THIS EVENING.
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIMINISHING...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER UNTIL 10 PM OR SO.
AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED INTO THE
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KMFE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT KHRL AROUND 02Z AND IF LESS LIKELY TO IMPACT KBRO.
THEREFORE NO SHRA WAS INTRODUCED INTO THEIR TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY RETURN AT ALL THREE SITES AFTER
SUNSET AND SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 1500 FEET A FEW HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS MAY BE SLOW TO LIFT SAT MORNING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
RUNNING FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY SOUTHWARD TO LAREDO AND
CONTINUING INTO MEXICO MOVING EAST...BEING PUSHED BY DUAL MCVS
CENTERED IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND NEAR KCOT. WHILE GOOD LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE /PW AT KBRO WAS 1.79 INCHES THIS MORNING/
AND GOOD DAYTIME HEATING GOING FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY...LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT SHEARING WILL PRECLUDE THESE FORM GETTING TOO HEFTY
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED POP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE VALLEY. MAIN
THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS NEARER TO THE
MCV AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL KEEP AN EYE OF END OF LINE CELL FOR
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED SHEAR ENHANCEMENTS. THE MCS WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE DEPARTS TO THE NE.
MODELS ARE NOW MORE IN LINE WITH PART OF THE IMPULSE WRAPPING BACK
AROUND THE RIDGE AND REMAINING OVER TEXAS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT...PUSHING THE RIDGE FURTHER TO THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY TO THE REGION...BUT LESSER AMOUNTS
THAN TODAY. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A SMALL RAIN CHANCE OUT WEST
AGAIN TOMORROW.MORE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TOMORROW WILL HOLD BACK
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES...HOVERING A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 90...WITH LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
ERODED AWAY SOME IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS A PRETTY STRONG WEST
COAST TROUGH DIGS EAST AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE DESERT SW. THE SW
FLOW ALOFT INDUCED BY THIS TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL TEND TO DRY OUT
AND STABILIZE THE ATMS LATER NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES CLOSER INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TOWARDS NEXT THURS
AND FRI. THE ECMWF REFLECTS A SHARPER 500 MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE DESERT SW ON AND AFTER WED VERSUS THE GFS. THIS IS THE
BIGGEST DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE.
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBSIDENT RIDGING AND DRYING OF THE
ATMS THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO. THE ECMWF TEMPS HAVE A LITTLE
MORE WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MEX MOS. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE MEX MOS IS PRETTY DECENT THROUGH NEXT WED WITH A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY SHOWING UP FOR THURS AND FRI.
WILL WARM UP HIGH TEMPS A BIT THROUGHOUT THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD
MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF NUMBERS. MIN TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED HERE. WILL INCREASE THE POPS A BIT IN
THE LONGER RANGE BUT WILL STILL LEAVE AS SILENT 10% AT THIS TIME
AS AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT OF ANY MEAURABLE RAINFALL DEVELOPING LATER
NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGING.
MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LITTLE DISRUPTION OF THE
SFC PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUES THE SE FLOW FOR SOUTH TEXAS. SOME
INCREASED BREEZES MAY PICK UP LATER TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD ACROSS WEST KANSAS. GENERALLY NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT
BECOMING 15 TO 20 KNOTS TOMORROW. NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED...BUT
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE SOME CAUTION WITH THE BREEZES TOMORROW.
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 4 FEET FOR THE GULF.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PGF WILL INCREASE IN THE LONGER
RANGE PERIOD DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRETTY STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH THE
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE LATER CWF PERIODS UP CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS FOR
BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
51/61
000
FXUS64 KBRO 242334
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
634 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED INTO THE
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KMFE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT KHRL AROUND 02Z AND IF LESS LIKELY TO IMPACT KBRO.
THEREFORE NO SHRA WAS INTRODUCED INTO THEIR TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY RETURN AT ALL THREE SITES AFTER
SUNSET AND SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 1500 FEET A FEW HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS MAY BE SLOW TO LIFT SAT MORNING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
RUNNING FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY SOUTHWARD TO LAREDO AND
CONTINUING INTO MEXICO MOVING EAST...BEING PUSHED BY DUAL MCVS
CENTERED IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND NEAR KCOT. WHILE GOOD LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE /PW AT KBRO WAS 1.79 INCHES THIS MORNING/
AND GOOD DAYTIME HEATING GOING FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY...LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT SHEARING WILL PRECLUDE THESE FORM GETTING TOO HEFTY
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED POP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE VALLEY. MAIN
THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS NEARER TO THE
MCV AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL KEEP AN EYE OF END OF LINE CELL FOR
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED SHEAR ENHANCEMENTS. THE MCS WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE DEPARTS TO THE NE.
MODELS ARE NOW MORE IN LINE WITH PART OF THE IMPULSE WRAPPING BACK
AROUND THE RIDGE AND REMAINING OVER TEXAS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT...PUSHING THE RIDGE FURTHER TO THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY TO THE REGION...BUT LESSER AMOUNTS
THAN TODAY. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A SMALL RAIN CHANCE OUT WEST
AGAIN TOMORROW.MORE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TOMORROW WILL HOLD BACK
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES...HOVERING A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 90...WITH LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
ERODED AWAY SOME IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS A PRETTY STRONG WEST
COAST TROUGH DIGS EAST AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE DESERT SW. THE SW
FLOW ALOFT INDUCED BY THIS TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL TEND TO DRY OUT
AND STABILIZE THE ATMS LATER NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES CLOSER INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TOWARDS NEXT THURS
AND FRI. THE ECMWF REFLECTS A SHARPER 500 MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE DESERT SW ON AND AFTER WED VERSUS THE GFS. THIS IS THE
BIGGEST DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE.
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBSIDENT RIDGING AND DRYING OF THE
ATMS THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO. THE ECMWF TEMPS HAVE A LITTLE
MORE WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MEX MOS. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE MEX MOS IS PRETTY DECENT THROUGH NEXT WED WITH A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY SHOWING UP FOR THURS AND FRI.
WILL WARM UP HIGH TEMPS A BIT THROUGHOUT THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD
MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF NUMBERS. MIN TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED HERE. WILL INCREASE THE POPS A BIT IN
THE LONGER RANGE BUT WILL STILL LEAVE AS SILENT 10% AT THIS TIME
AS AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT OF ANY MEAURABLE RAINFALL DEVELOPING LATER
NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGING.
MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LITTLE DISRUPTION OF THE
SFC PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUES THE SE FLOW FOR SOUTH TEXAS. SOME
INCREASED BREEZES MAY PICK UP LATER TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD ACROSS WEST KANSAS. GENERALLY NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT
BECOMING 15 TO 20 KNOTS TOMORROW. NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED...BUT
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE SOME CAUTION WITH THE BREEZES TOMORROW.
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 4 FEET FOR THE GULF.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PGF WILL INCREASE IN THE LONGER
RANGE PERIOD DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRETTY STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH THE
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE LATER CWF PERIODS UP CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS FOR
BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
51/61
000
FXUS64 KBRO 241934
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
234 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
RUNNING FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY SOUTHWARD TO LAREDO AND
CONTINUING INTO MEXICO MOVING EAST...BEING PUSHED BY DUAL MCVS
CENTERED IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND NEAR KCOT. WHILE GOOD LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE /PW AT KBRO WAS 1.79 INCHES THIS MORNING/
AND GOOD DAYTIME HEATING GOING FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY...LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT SHEARING WILL PRECLUDE THESE FORM GETTING TOO HEFTY
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED POP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE VALLEY. MAIN
THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS NEARER TO THE
MCV AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL KEEP AN EYE OF END OF LINE CELL FOR
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED SHEAR ENHANCEMENTS. THE MCS WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE DEPARTS TO THE NE.
MODELS ARE NOW MORE IN LINE WITH PART OF THE IMPULSE WRAPPING BACK
AROUND THE RIDGE AND REMAINING OVER TEXAS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT...PUSHING THE RIDGE FURTHER TO THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY TO THE REGION...BUT LESSER AMOUNTS
THAN TODAY. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A SMALL RAIN CHANCE OUT WEST
AGAIN TOMORROW.MORE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TOMORROW WILL HOLD BACK
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES...HOVERING A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 90...WITH LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
ERODED AWAY SOME IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS A PRETTY STRONG WEST
COAST TROUGH DIGS EAST AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE DESERT SW. THE SW
FLOW ALOFT INDUCED BY THIS TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL TEND TO DRY OUT
AND STABILIZE THE ATMS LATER NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES CLOSER INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TOWARDS NEXT THURS
AND FRI. THE ECMWF REFLECTS A SHARPER 500 MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE DESERT SW ON AND AFTER WED VERSUS THE GFS. THIS IS THE
BIGGEST DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE.
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBSIDENT RIDGING AND DRYING OF THE
ATMS THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO. THE ECMWF TEMPS HAVE A LITTLE
MORE WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MEX MOS. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE MEX MOS IS PRETTY DECENT THROUGH NEXT WED WITH A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY SHOWING UP FOR THURS AND FRI.
WILL WARM UP HIGH TEMPS A BIT THROUGHOUT THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD
MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF NUMBERS. MIN TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED HERE. WILL INCREASE THE POPS A BIT IN
THE LONGER RANGE BUT WILL STILL LEAVE AS SILENT 10% AT THIS TIME
AS AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT OF ANY MEAURABLE RAINFALL DEVELOPING LATER
NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGING.
&&
.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LITTLE DISRUPTION OF THE
SFC PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUES THE SE FLOW FOR SOUTH TEXAS. SOME
INCREASED BREEZES MAY PICK UP LATER TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD ACROSS WEST KANSAS. GENERALLY NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT
BECOMING 15 TO 20 KNOTS TOMORROW. NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED...BUT
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE SOME CAUTION WITH THE BREEZES TOMORROW.
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 4 FEET FOR THE GULF.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PGF WILL INCREASE IN THE LONGER
RANGE PERIOD DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRETTY STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH THE
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE LATER CWF PERIODS UP CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS FOR
BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 85 75 87 / 10 10 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 76 87 75 90 / 10 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 76 89 74 91 / 10 10 10 10
MCALLEN 76 92 74 94 / 20 10 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 94 75 97 / 20 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 82 76 86 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
SHORT TERM...64
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ
000
FXUS64 KBRO 241659 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1159 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS STAYED TOGETHER AND MOVED
FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN EXPECTED...AND IS APPROACHING ZAPATA COUNTY
ATTM. WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL SKIRT ALONG THE VERY
NORTHERN EDGES OF THE CWA...SOME DETACHED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY WEST OF 281 THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED UPDATE FOR
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPS AREAWIDE. MAIN ISSUE
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
.AVIATION...SKY COVER WILL REMAIN SCT TO BKN FROM 3500 TO 4000 FT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW MORNING CIGS AND SHOWERS HAVE
DISSIPATED. CLOUD COVER FROM THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST MAY REACH KMFE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT REACHING
THAT FAR SOUTHEAST DOES NOT YET LOOK LIKELY ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAF
CHANGES. LOW CLOUD DECK WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT DOWN TO
1500..SIMILAR TO THE LAST 2 NIGHTS. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY TOMORROW
WITH ONLY RAIN CHANCES FROM STREAMER SHOWERS JUST AFTER SUNRISE AT
KHRL AND KBRO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...500 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN CENTERED NEARLY DIRECTLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRODUCING DRY WEATHER
WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL
QUALITY CONTINUES TO EXPECT DEGRADED AIR QUALITY TODAY...WITH THE
AIR QUALITY INDEX IMPROVING TO GOOD FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THUS...
HAVE LEFT HAZE IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND HAVE
LEFT IT OUT FOR SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...500 MB RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE REGION AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
WEATHER AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH GRADUALLY
MOVES TO THE EAST BY MID WEEK. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY
MEMORIAL DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTERACTS WITH STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO WEST TEXAS. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
80S AT THE BEACHES...UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND THE UPPER 90S WEST. LOWS WILL BE THE IN LOW TO MID 70S
WITH UPPER 70S POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT A FEW
STREAMER SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS.
MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS
OF 3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. PERSISTENT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE
GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FOR
THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT TO EXERCISE CAUTION
OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
64/60
000
FXUS64 KBRO 240854
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
354 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...500 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN CENTERED NEARLY DIRECTLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRODUCING DRY WEATHER
WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL
QUALITY CONTINUES TO EXPECT DEGRADED AIR QUALITY TODAY...WITH THE
AIR QUALITY INDEX IMPROVING TO GOOD FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THUS...
HAVE LEFT HAZE IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND HAVE
LEFT IT OUT FOR SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...500 MB RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE REGION AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
WEATHER AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH GRADUALLY
MOVES TO THE EAST BY MID WEEK. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY
MEMORIAL DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTERACTS WITH STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO WEST TEXAS. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
80S AT THE BEACHES...UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND THE UPPER 90S WEST. LOWS WILL BE THE IN LOW TO MID 70S
WITH UPPER 70S POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT A FEW
STREAMER SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS
OF 3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. PERSISTENT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE
GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FOR
THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT TO EXERCISE CAUTION
OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 78 86 75 / 0 0 0 10
BROWNSVILLE 90 77 90 75 / 0 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 90 75 90 74 / 0 0 0 10
MCALLEN 93 77 93 76 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 95 78 95 78 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 78 83 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
SHORT TERM...TOMASELLI-66
LONG TERM...CACERES-63
FXC/MESO...VEGA
000
FXUS64 KBRO 240533 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1233 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TAF
PACKAGE REGARDING WIND STRENGTH AND TIMING. OVERALL...MVFR WITH
TEMPO IFR CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT LEVELS. FULL VFR
WILL RESUME ON FRIDAY WITH RISING CEILINGS AND BREEZY SURFACE
WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS WANING AT THIS MOMENT AND HIGH
CIRRUS FROM TSTORMS TO THE WEST IS BEGINNING TO WORK INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND WORK BACK INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING. CIG HEIGHTS AROUND 1500 FEET
EXPECTED WITH BRIEF BOUTS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING HAS QUICKLY BUILT NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY...HOLDING IN PLACE THE DRY AIR ABOVE 5000 FEET. BELOW
THIS...SFC HIGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE LONG SE TAP FROM THE GULF...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S AND DRAWING MORE SMOKE FROM THE SOUTH INTO TEXAS. DAYTIME
HEATING HAS BROUGHT THICKER DAYTIME CU FIELD...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
THIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...THE CLOUD DECK WILL RETURN
AND LOWER TO 1500 FEET. ALL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A WEAK
VORT RACING NWWD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE BIG BEND REGION
INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WILL BE DOMINATED TOO MUCH BY THE RIDGE...BUT THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM ON THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN
MEXICO WILL CLIP THE EDGES OF ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES...MAINLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. FEEL THAT THIS THREAT IS MINIMAL...SO HAVE KEPT ONLY
10 PERCENT CHANCES FOR THOSE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO ADDED 10
CHANCE FOR CAMERON COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY MAY HELP
SPARK A STREAMER SHOWER OR TWO LATER OVERNIGHT. /64/
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE BIG BEND TO THE
ARKLATEX SATURDAY. WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...THIS FEATURE
COULD GENERATE A BIT OF CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE BIG
QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER ANY PRECIPITATION COULD WANDER INTO
NORTHERN/WESTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ON THE HIGH END OF NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY/EARLY JUNE...WITH FORECAST VALUES HOVERING AROND THE 1.5 INCH
MARK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAY INDICATE A BIT OF INSTABILITY...BUT
THEY ALSO SHOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PRESENT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. BY THE TIME THE INVERSION WEAKENS...I FEEL THE /WEAKENING/
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON
OUR WEATHER LOCALLY.
EVEN WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY TO SEE A BIT OF CONVECTION WANDER SOUTHWARD TOWARD
NORTHERN PARTS OF ZAPATA OR JIM HOGG COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS
CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. GIVEN MY CONFIDENCE IN
ALL OF THIS HAPPENING...I HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW-GRADE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO THESE AREAS. RIGHT NOW...I WILL KEEP
THE ODDS OF SEEING SHOWERS UNDER 15 PERCENT.
UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WHEN THIS OCCURS...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS. THIS MAY
ALLOW SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA BY MEMORIAL
DAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT...I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...EVEN AS THE RIDGE STARTS SLIDING EAST BY DAY
6/7. ONGOING FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO BE IN THE
BALLPARK...WITH ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS MADE HERE OR THERE. /53/
MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
DOMINANT SFC HIGH ACROSS THE GULF WILL CONTINUE THE SE FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LACK OF AN OPPOSING LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE NW
WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN
TURN KEEPING SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET. LOWER VISIBILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NOTED ACROSS MARINE AREAS FROM SMOKE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. /64/
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
WITH COMBINED SEAS AVERAGING 4 FEET OR LESS. A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT TO EXERCISE
CAUTION OR THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN OVER THE MARINE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS
THIS WEEKEND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION HAPPENING...
ANY PROBABILITIES WILL BE KEPT UNDER 15 PERCENT. /53/
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
000
FXUS64 KBRO 232339
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
639 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS WANING AT THIS MOMENT AND HIGH
CIRRUS FROM TSTORMS TO THE WEST IS BEGINNING TO WORK INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND WORK BACK INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING. CIG HEIGHTS AROUND 1500 FEET
EXPECTED WITH BRIEF BOUTS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING HAS QUICKLY BUILT NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY...HOLDING IN PLACE THE DRY AIR ABOVE 5000 FEET. BELOW
THIS...SFC HIGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE LONG SE TAP FROM THE GULF...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S AND DRAWING MORE SMOKE FROM THE SOUTH INTO TEXAS. DAYTIME
HEATING HAS BROUGHT THICKER DAYTIME CU FIELD...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
THIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...THE CLOUD DECK WILL RETURN
AND LOWER TO 1500 FEET. ALL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A WEAK
VORT RACING NWWD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE BIG BEND REGION
INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WILL BE DOMINATED TOO MUCH BY THE RIDGE...BUT THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM ON THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN
MEXICO WILL CLIP THE EDGES OF ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES...MAINLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. FEEL THAT THIS THREAT IS MINIMAL...SO HAVE KEPT ONLY
10 PERCENT CHANCES FOR THOSE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO ADDED 10
CHANCE FOR CAMERON COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY MAY HELP
SPARK A STREAMER SHOWER OR TWO LATER OVERNIGHT. /64/
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE BIG BEND TO THE
ARKLATEX SATURDAY. WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...THIS FEATURE
COULD GENERATE A BIT OF CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE BIG
QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER ANY PRECIPITATION COULD WANDER INTO
NORTHERN/WESTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ON THE HIGH END OF NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY/EARLY JUNE...WITH FORECAST VALUES HOVERING AROND THE 1.5 INCH
MARK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAY INDICATE A BIT OF INSTABILITY...BUT
THEY ALSO SHOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PRESENT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. BY THE TIME THE INVERSION WEAKENS...I FEEL THE /WEAKENING/
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON
OUR WEATHER LOCALLY.
EVEN WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY TO SEE A BIT OF CONVECTION WANDER SOUTHWARD TOWARD
NORTHERN PARTS OF ZAPATA OR JIM HOGG COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS
CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. GIVEN MY CONFIDENCE IN
ALL OF THIS HAPPENING...I HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW-GRADE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO THESE AREAS. RIGHT NOW...I WILL KEEP
THE ODDS OF SEEING SHOWERS UNDER 15 PERCENT.
UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WHEN THIS OCCURS...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS. THIS MAY
ALLOW SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA BY MEMORIAL
DAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT...I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...EVEN AS THE RIDGE STARTS SLIDING EAST BY DAY
6/7. ONGOING FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO BE IN THE
BALLPARK...WITH ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS MADE HERE OR THERE. /53/
MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
DOMINANT SFC HIGH ACROSS THE GULF WILL CONTINUE THE SE FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LACK OF AN OPPOSING LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE NW
WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN
TURN KEEPING SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET. LOWER VISIBILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NOTED ACROSS MARINE AREAS FROM SMOKE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. /64/
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
WITH COMBINED SEAS AVERAGING 4 FEET OR LESS. A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT TO EXERCISE
CAUTION OR THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN OVER THE MARINE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS
THIS WEEKEND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION HAPPENING...
ANY PROBABILITIES WILL BE KEPT UNDER 15 PERCENT. /53/
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
55/61
000
FXUS64 KBRO 231900
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
200 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING HAS QUICKLY BUILT NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY...HOLDING IN PLACE THE DRY AIR ABOVE 5000 FEET. BELOW
THIS...SFC HIGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE LONG SE TAP FROM THE GULF...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S AND DRAWING MORE SMOKE FROM THE SOUTH INTO TEXAS. DAYTIME
HEATING HAS BROUGHT THICKER DAYTIME CU FIELD...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
THIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...THE CLOUD DECK WILL RETURN
AND LOWER TO 1500 FEET. ALL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A WEAK
VORT RACING NWWD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE BIG BEND REGION
INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WILL BE DOMINATED TOO MUCH BY THE RIDGE...BUT THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM ON THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN
MEXICO WILL CLIP THE EDGES OF ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES...MAINLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. FEEL THAT THIS THREAT IS MINIMAL...SO HAVE KEPT ONLY
10 PERCENT CHANCES FOR THOSE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO ADDED 10
CHANCE FOR CAMERON COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY MAY HELP
SPARK A STREAMER SHOWER OR TWO LATER OVERNIGHT. /64/
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE BIG BEND TO THE
ARKLATEX SATURDAY. WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...THIS FEATURE
COULD GENERATE A BIT OF CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE BIG
QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER ANY PRECIPITATION COULD WANDER INTO
NORTHERN/WESTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ON THE HIGH END OF NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY/EARLY JUNE...WITH FORECAST VALUES HOVERING AROND THE 1.5 INCH
MARK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAY INDICATE A BIT OF INSTABILITY...BUT
THEY ALSO SHOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PRESENT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. BY THE TIME THE INVERSION WEAKENS...I FEEL THE /WEAKENING/
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON
OUR WEATHER LOCALLY.
EVEN WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY TO SEE A BIT OF CONVECTION WANDER SOUTHWARD TOWARD
NORTHERN PARTS OF ZAPATA OR JIM HOGG COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS
CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. GIVEN MY CONFIDENCE IN
ALL OF THIS HAPPENING...I HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW-GRADE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO THESE AREAS. RIGHT NOW...I WILL KEEP
THE ODDS OF SEEING SHOWERS UNDER 15 PERCENT.
UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WHEN THIS OCCURS...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS. THIS MAY
ALLOW SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA BY MEMORIAL
DAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT...I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...EVEN AS THE RIDGE STARTS SLIDING EAST BY DAY
6/7. ONGOING FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO BE IN THE
BALLPARK...WITH ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS MADE HERE OR THERE. /53/
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
DOMINANT SFC HIGH ACROSS THE GULF WILL CONTINUE THE SE FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LACK OF AN OPPOSING LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE NW
WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN
TURN KEEPING SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET. LOWER VISIBILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NOTED ACROSS MARINE AREAS FROM SMOKE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. /64/
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
WITH COMBINED SEAS AVERAGING 4 FEET OR LESS. A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT TO EXERCISE
CAUTION OR THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN OVER THE MARINE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS
THIS WEEKEND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION HAPPENING...
ANY PROBABILITIES WILL BE KEPT UNDER 15 PERCENT. /53/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 86 77 84 / 10 10 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 77 89 77 86 / 10 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 76 90 76 88 / 10 10 10 10
MCALLEN 77 93 77 92 / 10 10 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 94 77 94 / 10 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 83 77 82 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
SHORT TERM FORECASTER... STRAUB
LONG TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
PSU/GRAPHICASTS...MARTINEZ
000
FXUS64 KBRO 231735 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1235 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...THICK CU FIELD CONTINUES TO ENVELOP THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THICK GULF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION AT
AROUND 3000 FEET. CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TROUBLE THINNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AND CIGS WILL VARY BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY BO SCT JUST BEFORE SUNSET BEFORE
CLOUDS RETURN MIDEVENING. CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...WITH CIGS FALLING TO 1500 FEET OVERNIGHT. BRIEF RUNS
DOWN TO 1000 FEET MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR KBRO AND KHRL. WINDS
WILL RELAX TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO 15G20KTS
TOMORROW. NO LLVL JET EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING. AGRICULTURAL BURNING ACROSS
MEXICO MAY PROVIDE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES DUE TO HAZE
THIS MORNING. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY LATE THIS MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS AND
BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS MOVES BACK ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CEILING POSSIBLE AROUND 3Z
FRIDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID AND UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT
TODAY AND FRIDAY. AGRICULTURAL BURNING IN MEXICO WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN PERIODS OF HAZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST...THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT/SCATTER
OUT AS DAYTIME HEATING AND WINDS INCREASE BY LATE MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S AT THE BEACHES...LOW
TO MID 90S IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND UPPER 90S OVER THE WEST.
MOSTLY CLOUDY...CONTINUED MILD AND HUMID TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A LITTLE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM. 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA...THE NORTHERN HALF
OF MEXICO...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND EXTENDED
OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ONE POTENTIAL ADJUSTMENT THAT MAY
NEED TO BE MADE IN THE NEAR FUTURE IS THE INCLUSION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE BRO CWFA...AS A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH TRANSITS
OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND...INITIATING CONVECTION THAT MAY SNEAK INTO
ZAPATA...STARR...AND JIM HOGG COUNTY ON SATURDAY.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AREAS OF HAZE WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM
AGRICULTURAL BURNING IN MEXICO CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE...AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
64
000
FXUS64 KBRO 231123 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
623 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING. AGRICULTURAL BURNING ACROSS
MEXICO MAY PROVIDE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES DUE TO HAZE
THIS MORNING. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY LATE THIS MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS AND
BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS MOVES BACK ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CEILING POSSIBLE AROUND 3Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID AND UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT
TODAY AND FRIDAY. AGRICULTURAL BURNING IN MEXICO WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN PERIODS OF HAZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST...THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT/SCATTER
OUT AS DAYTIME HEATING AND WINDS INCREASE BY LATE MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S AT THE BEACHES...LOW
TO MID 90S IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND UPPER 90S OVER THE WEST.
MOSTLY CLOUDY...CONTINUED MILD AND HUMID TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A LITTLE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM. 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA...THE NORTHERN HALF
OF MEXICO...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND EXTENDED
OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ONE POTENTIAL ADJUSTMENT THAT MAY
NEED TO BE MADE IN THE NEAR FUTURE IS THE INCLUSION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE BRO CWFA...AS A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH TRANSITS
OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND...INITIATING CONVECTION THAT MAY SNEAK INTO
ZAPATA...STARR...AND JIM HOGG COUNTY ON SATURDAY.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AREAS OF HAZE WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM
AGRICULTURAL BURNING IN MEXICO CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE...AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
63
000
FXUS64 KBRO 230930
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
430 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID AND UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT
TODAY AND FRIDAY. AGRICULTURAL BURNING IN MEXICO WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN PERIODS OF HAZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST...THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT/SCATTER
OUT AS DAYTIME HEATING AND WINDS INCREASE BY LATE MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S AT THE BEACHES...LOW
TO MID 90S IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND UPPER 90S OVER THE WEST.
MOSTLY CLOUDY...CONTINUED MILD AND HUMID TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A LITTLE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM. 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA...THE NORTHERN HALF
OF MEXICO...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND EXTENDED
OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ONE POTENTIAL ADJUSTMENT THAT MAY
NEED TO BE MADE IN THE NEAR FUTURE IS THE INCLUSION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE BRO CWFA...AS A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH TRANSITS
OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND...INITIATING CONVECTION THAT MAY SNEAK INTO
ZAPATA...STARR...AND JIM HOGG COUNTY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AREAS OF HAZE WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM
AGRICULTURAL BURNING IN MEXICO CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE...AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 78 82 78 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 88 77 86 76 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 90 75 88 75 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 94 75 92 76 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 97 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 78 80 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
SHORT TERM...CACERES-63
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
FXC/MESO...CAMPBELL
000
FXUS64 KBRO 230602 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
102 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW
STRATUS SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. AGRICULTURAL BURNING ACROSS MEXICO MAY PROVIDE
SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES DUE TO HAZE. CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
MODERATE LEVELS AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS MOVES
BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CEILING POSSIBLE
AROUND 3Z FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...EXPECT CIGS TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS
LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS AND MOVES IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS DUE TO HAZE FROM
AGRICULTURAL BURNING TO OUR SOUTH. CIGS WILL RAISE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY THURSDAY NIGHT/... MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG OR JUST INLAND FROM THE TEXAS COAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SURGING NORTH OVER THIS WEAK BOUNDARY A SURFACE RIDGE
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MAIN FEATURE IS THICK LOW CLOUDINESS AND HIGHER
DEW POINTS. THE CLOUDS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME BREAKING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LACK OF STRONGER WINDS TO MIX THROUGH THE
SURFACE INVERSION. EVEN A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE REPORTED
AROUND BROWNSVILLE EARLIER TODAY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THROUGH THE EVENING FOR ALL AREAS BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONLY A TRACE WITH NO REAL LIFT OF THE MOISTURE
OCCURRING AND THE INVERSION KEEPING A CAP ON THINGS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EAST THURSDAY AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN MIXING. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND HEAT
DEVELOPING. VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER AND NO APPRECIABLE LIFT OF
LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR ANY RAIN ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TO WARM
SLIGHTLY WITH MORE SUNSHINE WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. BOTH MAV AND
MET ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EACH OTHER WITH THE GOING FORECAST
TAKING A BLEND OF TWO.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...STRONG H5 RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS ON FRIDAY...CAPPING THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT
AND STEERING SYSTEMS WELL TO THE NORTH. DOMINANT SFC RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. FIRES IN SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE STILL
ONGOING...SO HAZE AND SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...GENERALLY IN THE 90S...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. MODELS STILL DISAGREEING ON UPPER PATTERN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED RIDGING AS SUMMERTIME
PATTERN TRIES TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION. WENT WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY OF MID 90S TO 100 WEST.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LAGUNA THURSDAY
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST BUT NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED. STEADY STATE SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND COULD LOWER TO ONE MORE FOOT ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MODEST SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 15 KNOTS EACH DAY...KEEPING SEAS
IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 86 76 84 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 77 88 75 86 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 75 89 75 88 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 75 93 76 92 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 94 76 94 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 83 76 82 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
63
000
FXUS64 KBRO 230005
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
705 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT CIGS TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS
LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS AND MOVES IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS DUE TO HAZE FROM
AGRICULTURAL BURNING TO OUR SOUTH. CIGS WILL RAISE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY THURSDAY NIGHT/... MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG OR JUST INLAND FROM THE TEXAS COAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SURGING NORTH OVER THIS WEAK BOUNDARY A SURFACE RIDGE
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MAIN FEATURE IS THICK LOW CLOUDINESS AND HIGHER
DEW POINTS. THE CLOUDS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME BREAKING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LACK OF STRONGER WINDS TO MIX THROUGH THE
SURFACE INVERSION. EVEN A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE REPORTED
AROUND BROWNSVILLE EARLIER TODAY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THROUGH THE EVENING FOR ALL AREAS BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONLY A TRACE WITH NO REAL LIFT OF THE MOISTURE
OCCURRING AND THE INVERSION KEEPING A CAP ON THINGS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EAST THURSDAY AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN MIXING. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND HEAT
DEVELOPING. VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER AND NO APPRECIABLE LIFT OF
LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR ANY RAIN ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TO WARM
SLIGHTLY WITH MORE SUNSHINE WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. BOTH MAV AND
MET ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EACH OTHER WITH THE GOING FORECAST
TAKING A BLEND OF TWO.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...STRONG H5 RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS ON FRIDAY...CAPPING THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT
AND STEERING SYSTEMS WELL TO THE NORTH. DOMINANT SFC RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. FIRES IN SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE STILL
ONGOING...SO HAZE AND SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...GENERALLY IN THE 90S...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. MODELS STILL DISAGREEING ON UPPER PATTERN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED RIDGING AS SUMMERTIME
PATTERN TRIES TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION. WENT WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY OF MID 90S TO 100 WEST.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LAGUNA THURSDAY
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST BUT NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED. STEADY STATE SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND COULD LOWER TO ONE MORE FOOT ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MODEST SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 15 KNOTS EACH DAY...KEEPING SEAS
IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
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