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000
FXUS64 KBRO 062339 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
639 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS WEST TEXAS...WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LOWS.
PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE IS DRAPED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL
REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THE RIDGE DOES
SHIFT EAST BEGINNING SATURDAY AS THE EASTERN LOW BEGINS TO BECOME
AFFECTED AND KICKED EASTWARD BY A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CANADA.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN LOW TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS WELL AND
BRING SOME INCREASED HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE LATE
IN THE SHORT TERM. THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SIERRA MADRES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY WITH
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR IN PLACE BELIEVE WE WILL NOT BE
AFFECTED BY ANY STORMS MOVING OFF THE SIERRA MADRES SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY SATURDAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTERACTS WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DESERT SW STATES WILL START LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MON AND TUES AS A SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS BROAD 500 MB TROUGH WILL THEN DOMINATE
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LOWER 48 STATES THROUGHOUT NEXT FRI. AS
THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW MOVES OUT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SOME POCKETS OF PVA WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF TX
WHICH MAY HELP FIRE OFF SOME ISOLD CONV ACROSS THE RGV SUN
NIGHT/EARLY MON. LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE 500 MB TROUGH LINGERS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
TX WED AND THURS POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME MORE MAINLY ISOLD/SCT
CONV OUT OUT WEST. OVERALL MOISTURE VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING LONG RANGE PERIOD APPEAR PRETTY MARGINAL SO EXPECT
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7 DAYS TO REMAIN PRETTY
LOW.

SINCE THE LOW LEVEL WAA IS PRETTY CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT DAY 7
EXPECT OVERALL TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE RGV. ALSO THE
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE VALUES WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON
DAYTIME HEATING TO KICK IN BOOSTING UP THE MAXES. THE GFS AND
ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING ONTO TO SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. SO WILL OPT
FOR A GENERAL BLEND OF THESE TWO MODEL SETS FOR THE AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE.

THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS TEMPS AND POPS IS
VERY STABLE. COMPARISON OF THE 500 MB GFS AND THE ECMWF 500 MB
FIELDS REFLECT PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7. THE BIGGEST
DISAGREEMENT IS IN THE HANDLING OF THE DEPTH OF THE EXPECTED 500
MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LOWER 48 STATES
LATE NEXT WEEK. ACCORDINGLY...OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS WEER NEAR 1 FOOT WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 6 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL PREVAIL
THR REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
WEST TX AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INCREASES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS LIKELY SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE
DESERT SW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP DUE TO THE FORMATION OF A GOOD
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL PUSH THE
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE UP TO NEAR SCA LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST SUN AND MON. THE PGF WILL THEN WEAKEN SOME FOR
TUES AND WEDS ALLOWING THE WINDS AND SEAS TO CALM DOWN A BIT
REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS LATE IN THE CWF PERIOD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 062007
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
307 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LOWS.
PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE IS DRAPED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL
REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THE RIDGE DOES
SHIFT EAST BEGINNING SATURDAY AS THE EASTERN LOW BEGINS TO BECOME
AFFECTED AND KICKED EASTWARD BY A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CANADA.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN LOW TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS WELL AND
BRING SOME INCREASED HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE LATE
IN THE SHORT TERM. THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SIERRA MADRES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY WITH
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR IN PLACE BELIEVE WE WILL NOT BE
AFFECTED BY ANY STORMS MOVING OFF THE SIERRA MADRES SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY SATURDAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTERACTS WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DESERT SW STATES WILL START LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MON AND TUES AS A SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS BROAD 500 MB TROUGH WILL THEN DOMINATE
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LOWER 48 STATES THROUGHOUT NEXT FRI. AS
THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW MOVES OUT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SOME POCKETS OF PVA WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF TX
WHICH MAY HELP FIRE OFF SOME ISOLD CONV ACROSS THE RGV SUN
NIGHT/EARLY MON. LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE 500 MB TROUGH LINGERS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
TX WED AND THURS POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME MORE MAINLY ISOLD/SCT
CONV OUT OUT WEST. OVERALL MOISTURE VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING LONG RANGE PERIOD APPEAR PRETTY MARGINAL SO EXPECT
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7 DAYS TO REMAIN PRETTY
LOW.

SINCE THE LOW LEVEL WAA IS PRETTY CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT DAY 7
EXPECT OVERALL TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE RGV. ALSO THE
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE VALUES WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON
DAYTIME HEATING TO KICK IN BOOSTING UP THE MAXES. THE GFS AND
ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING ONTO TO SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. SO WILL OPT
FOR A GENERAL BLEND OF THESE TWO MODEL SETS FOR THE AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE.

THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS TEMPS AND POPS IS
VERY STABLE. COMPARISON OF THE 500 MB GFS AND THE ECMWF 500 MB
FIELDS REFLECT PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7. THE BIGGEST
DISAGREEMENT IS IN THE HANDLING OF THE DEPTH OF THE EXPECTED 500
MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LOWER 48 STATES
LATE NEXT WEEK. ACCORDINGLY...OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS WEER NEAR 1 FOOT WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 6 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL PREVAIL
THR REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
WEST TX AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INCREASES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS LIKELY SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE
DESERT SW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP DUE TO THE FORMATION OF A GOOD
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL PUSH THE
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE UP TO NEAR SCA LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST SUN AND MON. THE PGF WILL THEN WEAKEN SOME FOR
TUES AND WEDS ALLOWING THE WINDS AND SEAS TO CALM DOWN A BIT
REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS LATE IN THE CWF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  68  86  72  84 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          66  87  71  87 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            65  89  71  89 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN              67  90  71  93 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      67  92  70  94 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  82  73  83 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...60





000
FXUS64 KBRO 061737
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1237 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS
ARE BECOMING SE NOW AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 6SM WITH MIST AT KPIL. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS WEST
TEXAS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AHEAD OF A BROAD 500MB LOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS
THE LOWER TX COAST SAT AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW WILL DRIFT E INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS S
TEXAS INCREASING SE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER LOW SYSTEM
MOVES E LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
DEVELOPING ISO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE SAT NIGHT. PERTURBATION WITHIN
THE SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE
TROUGH EXITS MONDAY BUT LINGERING MOISTURE WITH WEAK 500 MB
VORTICES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN PRETTY ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE BULK OF THE
LONGER RANGE PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PREVAIL IN THE S-SE
SURFACE FLOW THROUGH DAY 7. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OVERALL TEMPS NEAR
TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH FRIDAY.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS WEER NEAR 1 FOOT WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO PROVIDES A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TX AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PAC NW WILL TRAVEL EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL INC TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SCA. THE SE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS FOR BOTH THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55





000
FXUS64 KBRO 061120 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
620 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 6SM WITH MIST AT KPIL. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS WEST
TEXAS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AHEAD OF A BROAD 500MB LOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS
THE LOWER TX COAST SAT AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW WILL DRIFT E INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS S
TEXAS INCREASING SE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER LOW SYSTEM
MOVES E LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
DEVELOPING ISO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE SAT NIGHT. PERTURBATION WITHIN
THE SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE
TROUGH EXITS MONDAY BUT LINGERING MOISTURE WITH WEAK 500 MB
VORTICES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN PRETTY ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE BULK OF THE
LONGER RANGE PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PREVAIL IN THE S-SE
SURFACE FLOW THROUGH DAY 7. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OVERALL TEMPS NEAR
TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH FRIDAY.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS WEER NEAR 1 FOOT WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO PROVIDES A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TX AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PAC NW WILL TRAVEL EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL INC TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SCA. THE SE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS FOR BOTH THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/63/BILLINGS





000
FXUS64 KBRO 060830
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
330 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AHEAD OF A BROAD 500MB LOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ON SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE
LOWER TX COAST SAT AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW WILL DRIFT E INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS S
TEXAS INCREASING SE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER LOW SYSTEM
MOVES E LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
DEVELOPING ISO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE SAT NIGHT. PERTURBATION WITHIN
THE SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE
TROUGH EXITS MONDAY BUT LINGERING MOISTURE WITH WEAK 500 MB
VORTICES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN PRETTY ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE BULK OF THE
LONGER RANGE PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PREVAIL IN THE S-SE
SURFACE FLOW THROUGH DAY 7. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OVERALL TEMPS NEAR
TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS WEER NEAR 1 FOOT WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO PROVIDES A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TX AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PAC NW WILL TRAVEL EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL INC TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SCA. THE SE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS FOR BOTH THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  87  68  87  74 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          89  65  88  73 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            92  63  91  72 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              93  67  91  73 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      96  67  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  71  83  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/67





000
FXUS64 KBRO 060830
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
330 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AHEAD OF A BROAD 500MB LOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ON SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE
LOWER TX COAST SAT AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW WILL DRIFT E INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS S
TEXAS INCREASING SE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER LOW SYSTEM
MOVES E LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
DEVELOPING ISO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE SAT NIGHT. PERTURBATION WITHIN
THE SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE
TROUGH EXITS MONDAY BUT LINGERING MOISTURE WITH WEAK 500 MB
VORTICES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN PRETTY ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE BULK OF THE
LONGER RANGE PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PREVAIL IN THE S-SE
SURFACE FLOW THROUGH DAY 7. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OVERALL TEMPS NEAR
TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS WEER NEAR 1 FOOT WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO PROVIDES A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TX AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PAC NW WILL TRAVEL EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL INC TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SCA. THE SE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS FOR BOTH THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  87  68  87  74 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          89  65  88  73 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            92  63  91  72 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              93  67  91  73 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      96  67  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  71  83  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/67





000
FXUS64 KBRO 060541 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1241 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS WEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING AS SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LATEST SREF
INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY OF LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE BRO/HRL
TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD BEGINNING TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE WINDS ESTABLISHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. LEE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SIERRA MADRES WILL HELP PROVIDE A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SPEED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. AS
EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN WILL START BREAKING DOWN THIS SATURDAY WITH A BROAD 500
MB CLOSED LOW BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES ON
MONDAY. THIS 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES REMAIN
CONCENTRATED CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW WELL
NORTH OF THE RGV AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
FAIRLY WEAK 500 MB VORTICES MOVING AROUND THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE
OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE OVER TX. THESE VORTICES COULD PRODUCE
SOME ISOLD CONV THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD. WILL MENTION
SOME SLGT CHC POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN PRETTY ELEVATED THROUGHOUT
THE BULK OF THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PREVAIL
IN THE S-SE SURFACE FLOW THROUGH DAY 7. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OVERALL
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH NEXT THURS. MEX AND ECMWF MODEL
TEMPS ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND
WILL GO CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR TEMPS. RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MEX TEMP AND POP GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK GRADIANT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FEATURING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WINDS ESTABLISH FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATER FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO MODERATE AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE. NO SCEC OR SCA EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE WEST COAST 500 MB CLOSED LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 STATES...SURFACE
TROFFING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WHICH WILL
TIGHTEN UP THE PGF ACROSS THE LOWER TX COASTLINE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS FOR BOTH THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF
WATERS THROUGHOUT THE LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING CWF PERIOD.
SCAS WILL BE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 052343 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
643 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LATEST SREF
INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY OF LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE BRO/HRL
TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD BEGINNING TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE WINDS ESTABLISHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. LEE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SIERRA MADRES WILL HELP PROVIDE A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SPEED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. AS
EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN WILL START BREAKING DOWN THIS SATURDAY WITH A BROAD 500
MB CLOSED LOW BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES ON
MONDAY. THIS 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES REMAIN
CONCENTRATED CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW WELL
NORTH OF THE RGV AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
FAIRLY WEAK 500 MB VORTICES MOVING AROUND THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE
OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE OVER TX. THESE VORTICES COULD PRODUCE
SOME ISOLD CONV THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD. WILL MENTION
SOME SLGT CHC POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN PRETTY ELEVATED THROUGHOUT
THE BULK OF THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PREVAIL
IN THE S-SE SURFACE FLOW THROUGH DAY 7. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OVERALL
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH NEXT THURS. MEX AND ECMWF MODEL
TEMPS ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND
WILL GO CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR TEMPS. RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MEX TEMP AND POP GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK GRADIANT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FEATURING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WINDS ESTABLISH FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATER FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO MODERATE AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE. NO SCEC OR SCA EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE WEST COAST 500 MB CLOSED LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 STATES...SURFACE
TROFFING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WHICH WILL
TIGHTEN UP THE PGF ACROSS THE LOWER TX COASTLINE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS FOR BOTH THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF
WATERS THROUGHOUT THE LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING CWF PERIOD.
SCAS WILL BE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 052022
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
322 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD BEGINNING TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE WINDS ESTABLISHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. LEE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SIERRA MADRES WILL HELP PROVIDE A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SPEED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. AS
EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN WILL START BREAKING DOWN THIS SATURDAY WITH A BROAD 500
MB CLOSED LOW BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES ON
MONDAY. THIS 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES REMAIN
CONCENTRATED CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW WELL
NORTH OF THE RGV AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
FAIRLY WEAK 500 MB VORTICES MOVING AROUND THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE
OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE OVER TX. THESE VORTICES COULD PRODUCE
SOME ISOLD CONV THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD. WILL MENTION
SOME SLGT CHC POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN PRETTY ELEVATED THROUGHOUT
THE BULK OF THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PREVAIL
IN THE S-SE SURFACE FLOW THROUGH DAY 7. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OVERALL
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH NEXT THURS. MEX AND ECMWF MODEL
TEMPS ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND
WILL GO CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR TEMPS. RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MEX TEMP AND POP GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK GRADIANT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FEATURING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WINDS ESTABLISH FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATER FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO MODERATE AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE. NO SCEC OR SCA EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE WEST COAST 500 MB CLOSED LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 STATES...SURFACE
TROFFING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WHICH WILL
TIGHTEN UP THE PGF ACROSS THE LOWER TX COASTLINE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS FOR BOTH THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF
WATERS THROUGHOUT THE LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING CWF PERIOD.
SCAS WILL BE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  66  86  69  83 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          64  90  67  84 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            63  91  66  87 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              65  93  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      65  96  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   68  82  71  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65





000
FXUS64 KBRO 051735
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS IN CONTROL. BUFKIT IS SHOWING A LOW
PROBABILITY OF FOG ACROSS THE BRO/HRL TERMINALS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED THAT SOME FIELD FOG DEVELOPS WITH VSBYS REDUCED TO
AROUND 5 MILES AROUND DAWN AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WIDESPREAD FOG
AND/OR DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS...AS WELL AS UNCERTAINTY ON
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY IN THE MORNING VEERING GRADUALLY SE AS SURFACE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. ABUNDAT DRY AIR
IN PLACE WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS ALREADY
SHIFTED NW TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. RIDGE IS
CENTER OVER THE DESERT SW AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ABUNDANT DRY AIR IS
NOTED ACROSS THE COLUMN WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN AN INCH. THIS IS
ADDITION TO LOWER DEW POINTS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP S
TEXAS AND THE RGV THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S OUT WEST AND
LOW 90S NEAR THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH WILL MIGRATE SE INTO THE LOWER
GULF COAST WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS SE BY FRIDAY. TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND LIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SE
WITH CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 60S AND UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. FRIDAY`S TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FRIDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
SATURDAY AS THE BROAD 500MB LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES BEGINS TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
SUNDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TX SUNDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
EAST TX MONDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TX
MONDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TX TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TX PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS S TEXAS.
SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SE INTO FRIDAY VEERING WINDS EAST
TO SE. WINDS AND SEAS AS A RESULT WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SAT NIGHT. MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASING MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55





000
FXUS64 KBRO 051109
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
609 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY IN THE MORNING VEERING GRADUALLY SE AS SURFACE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. ABUNDAT DRY AIR
IN PLACE WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS ALREADY
SHIFTED NW TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. RIDGE IS
CENTER OVER THE DESERT SW AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ABUNDANT DRY AIR IS
NOTED ACROSS THE COLUMN WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN AN INCH. THIS IS
ADDITION TO LOWER DEW POINTS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP S
TEXAS AND THE RGV THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S OUT WEST AND
LOW 90S NEAR THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH WILL MIGRATE SE INTO THE LOWER
GULF COAST WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS SE BY FRIDAY. TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND LIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SE
WITH CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 60S AND UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. FRIDAY`S TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FRIDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
SATURDAY AS THE BROAD 500MB LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES BEGINS TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
SUNDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TX SUNDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
EAST TX MONDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TX
MONDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TX TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TX PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS S TEXAS.
SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SE INTO FRIDAY VEERING WINDS EAST
TO SE. WINDS AND SEAS AS A RESULT WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SAT NIGHT. MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASING MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61





000
FXUS64 KBRO 050845
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
345 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS ALREADY
SHIFTED NW TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. RIDGE IS
CENTER OVER THE DESERT SW AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ABUNDANT DRY AIR IS
NOTED ACROSS THE COLUMN WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN AN INCH. THIS IS
ADDITION TO LOWER DEW POINTS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP S
TEXAS AND THE RGV THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S OUT WEST AND
LOW 90S NEAR THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH WILL MIGRATE SE INTO THE LOWER
GULF COAST WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS SE BY FRIDAY. TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND LIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SE
WITH CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 60S AND UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. FRIDAY`S TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FRIDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
SATURDAY AS THE BROAD 500MB LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES BEGINS TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
SUNDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TX SUNDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
EAST TX MONDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TX
MONDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TX TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TX PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS S TEXAS.
SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SE INTO FRIDAY VEERING WINDS EAST
TO SE. WINDS AND SEAS AS A RESULT WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SAT NIGHT. MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASING MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  87  67  87  70 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          91  65  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            92  62  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              94  65  94  67 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      96  65  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  70  82  72 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63/61





000
FXUS64 KBRO 050845
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
345 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS ALREADY
SHIFTED NW TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. RIDGE IS
CENTER OVER THE DESERT SW AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ABUNDANT DRY AIR IS
NOTED ACROSS THE COLUMN WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN AN INCH. THIS IS
ADDITION TO LOWER DEW POINTS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP S
TEXAS AND THE RGV THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S OUT WEST AND
LOW 90S NEAR THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH WILL MIGRATE SE INTO THE LOWER
GULF COAST WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS SE BY FRIDAY. TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND LIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SE
WITH CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 60S AND UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. FRIDAY`S TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FRIDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
SATURDAY AS THE BROAD 500MB LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES BEGINS TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
SUNDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TX SUNDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
EAST TX MONDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TX
MONDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TX TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TX PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS S TEXAS.
SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SE INTO FRIDAY VEERING WINDS EAST
TO SE. WINDS AND SEAS AS A RESULT WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SAT NIGHT. MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASING MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  87  67  87  70 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          91  65  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            92  62  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              94  65  94  67 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      96  65  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  70  82  72 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63/61





000
FXUS64 KBRO 050545
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1245 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
RGV OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL START TO SHIFT
AROUND FROM THE S-SE AS THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER TX SLIDES
EASTWARDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...00 MB AND SURFACE
RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE RGV THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THE 500 MB
RIDGING WILL STEADILY BUILD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES DUE
TO DUAL CUT OFF LOWS LOCATED OVER THE WEST AND EAST COASTS OF THE
LOWER 48 STATES. OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING PERIOD AND NEAR ZERO POPS WILL PREVAIL. THE
SURFACE RIDGING WILL SHIFT A BIT EASTWARDS THROUGH THURS WHICH WILL
ALLOW A RETURN OF A S-SE WARMER LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH ABUNDANT DAYTIME HEATING WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK UP TO ABOVE
CLIMO.

THE LATEST MET GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE SLOW PICKING UP ON
THE WARMUP WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BEING SHOWING A LITTLE WARMER
TEMPS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS. WILL GO CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF TEMPS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BENIGN WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IS SET UP ACROSS THE CONUS. THE
BLOCK BREAKS DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH
BEGINNING TO MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY.
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY IN RESPONSE. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MEXICO EACH AFTERNOON SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS
TO SNEAK IN TO THE CWA BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS. PLUS...STRONG CAPPING AND MEAGER
MOISTURE RETURN FURTHER REDUCES CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE...EXPECT HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PGF WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE WINDS TO
BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND THURS. AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD EXPECT THE SURFACE FLOW TO
SHIFT AROUND MORE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION HEADING INTO THURS
NIGHT. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURS NIGHT WITH FAIRLY
CALM MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE
IN RESPONSE. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND/OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61





000
FXUS64 KBRO 050545
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1245 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
RGV OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL START TO SHIFT
AROUND FROM THE S-SE AS THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER TX SLIDES
EASTWARDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...00 MB AND SURFACE
RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE RGV THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THE 500 MB
RIDGING WILL STEADILY BUILD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES DUE
TO DUAL CUT OFF LOWS LOCATED OVER THE WEST AND EAST COASTS OF THE
LOWER 48 STATES. OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING PERIOD AND NEAR ZERO POPS WILL PREVAIL. THE
SURFACE RIDGING WILL SHIFT A BIT EASTWARDS THROUGH THURS WHICH WILL
ALLOW A RETURN OF A S-SE WARMER LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH ABUNDANT DAYTIME HEATING WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK UP TO ABOVE
CLIMO.

THE LATEST MET GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE SLOW PICKING UP ON
THE WARMUP WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BEING SHOWING A LITTLE WARMER
TEMPS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS. WILL GO CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF TEMPS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BENIGN WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IS SET UP ACROSS THE CONUS. THE
BLOCK BREAKS DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH
BEGINNING TO MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY.
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY IN RESPONSE. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MEXICO EACH AFTERNOON SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS
TO SNEAK IN TO THE CWA BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS. PLUS...STRONG CAPPING AND MEAGER
MOISTURE RETURN FURTHER REDUCES CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE...EXPECT HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PGF WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE WINDS TO
BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND THURS. AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD EXPECT THE SURFACE FLOW TO
SHIFT AROUND MORE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION HEADING INTO THURS
NIGHT. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURS NIGHT WITH FAIRLY
CALM MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE
IN RESPONSE. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND/OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61





000
FXUS64 KBRO 041946
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
246 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...00 MB AND SURFACE
RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE RGV THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THE 500 MB
RIDGING WILL STEADILY BUILD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES DUE
TO DUAL CUT OFF LOWS LOCATED OVER THE WEST AND EAST COASTS OF THE
LOWER 48 STATES. OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING PERIOD AND NEAR ZERO POPS WILL PREVAIL. THE
SURFACE RIDGING WILL SHIFT A BIT EASTWARDS THROUGH THURS WHICH WILL
ALLOW A RETURN OF A S-SE WARMER LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH ABUNDANT DAYTIME HEATING WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK UP TO ABOVE
CLIMO.

THE LATEST MET GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE SLOW PICKING UP ON
THE WARMUP WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BEING SHOWING A LITTLE WARMER
TEMPS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS. WILL GO CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF TEMPS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT TOMORROW NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BENIGN WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IS SET UP ACROSS THE CONUS. THE
BLOCK BREAKS DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH
BEGINNING TO MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY.
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY IN RESPONSE. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MEXICO EACH AFTERNOON SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS
TO SNEAK IN TO THE CWA BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS. PLUS...STRONG CAPPING AND MEAGER
MOISTURE RETURN FURTHER REDUCES CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE...EXPECT HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PGF WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE WINDS TO
BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND THURS. AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD EXPECT THE SURFACE FLOW TO
SHIFT AROUND MORE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION HEADING INTO THURS
NIGHT. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURS NIGHT WITH FAIRLY
CALM MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE
IN RESPONSE. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND/OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  64  87  67  86 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          63  91  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            60  92  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              63  94  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      62  96  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   68  82  70  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BIRCHFIELD





000
FXUS64 KBRO 041812 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
112 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
RGV OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL START TO SHIFT
AROUND FROM THE S-SE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD AS THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER TX SLIDES EASTWARDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN...RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL CLEAR
SKIES WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
FOR PART OF THE DAY MAINTAINING OVERCAST CLOUD DECK ACROSS DEEP S
TEXAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE MAKING IT THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY VEERING NE TO E BY
THE THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD RETURNING NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT BREAKING THE OVC TO BKN CLOUD DECK BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THICKNESS HEIGHTS WILL BE RISE OUT WEST AND 850 MB TEMPS WARM UP
INTO 15 TO 17 DEG WHICH WILL AID FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
90S OUT WEST AND MID 80S NEAR THE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S AND UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

THURSDAY RIDGE BUILDS MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. DEW POINTS LOWER INTO THE
40S OUT WEST AND LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN
THE TEENS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND MID TO LOW 20PRECENT IN THE
MID VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER REACHING THE
MID 90S OUT WEST AND LOW 90S NEAR THE COAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 500 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE EAST...WITH THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND AREA
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EFFECTS OF THIS RIDGE...COMBINED
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING FROM THE LONE STAR STATE
TO NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE GENERALLY BETWEEN
75 AND 1.5 INCHES PRECIPITABLE-WATER-WISE...WILL PRODUCE DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE BRO CWFA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERS THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST
-TO-NORTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW...WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURE EXTREMES
CONTINUE TO NOT BE ANTICIPATED...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS RUNNING AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS S TEXAS.
SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS VEERING
WINDS EAST TO SE. DRY AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE GULF CLEARING
SKIES AND RETURNING WARM TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S. WINDS AND
SEAS AS A RESULT WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
UNFORTUNATELY ONLY PREVAIL DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE PERIOD
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MORE ADVERSE WIND AND SEA
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
PERIOD...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND/OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LIKELY...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55





000
FXUS64 KBRO 041812 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
112 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
RGV OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL START TO SHIFT
AROUND FROM THE S-SE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD AS THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER TX SLIDES EASTWARDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN...RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL CLEAR
SKIES WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
FOR PART OF THE DAY MAINTAINING OVERCAST CLOUD DECK ACROSS DEEP S
TEXAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE MAKING IT THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY VEERING NE TO E BY
THE THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD RETURNING NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT BREAKING THE OVC TO BKN CLOUD DECK BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THICKNESS HEIGHTS WILL BE RISE OUT WEST AND 850 MB TEMPS WARM UP
INTO 15 TO 17 DEG WHICH WILL AID FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
90S OUT WEST AND MID 80S NEAR THE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S AND UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

THURSDAY RIDGE BUILDS MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. DEW POINTS LOWER INTO THE
40S OUT WEST AND LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN
THE TEENS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND MID TO LOW 20PRECENT IN THE
MID VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER REACHING THE
MID 90S OUT WEST AND LOW 90S NEAR THE COAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 500 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE EAST...WITH THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND AREA
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EFFECTS OF THIS RIDGE...COMBINED
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING FROM THE LONE STAR STATE
TO NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE GENERALLY BETWEEN
75 AND 1.5 INCHES PRECIPITABLE-WATER-WISE...WILL PRODUCE DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE BRO CWFA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERS THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST
-TO-NORTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW...WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURE EXTREMES
CONTINUE TO NOT BE ANTICIPATED...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS RUNNING AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS S TEXAS.
SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS VEERING
WINDS EAST TO SE. DRY AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE GULF CLEARING
SKIES AND RETURNING WARM TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S. WINDS AND
SEAS AS A RESULT WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
UNFORTUNATELY ONLY PREVAIL DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE PERIOD
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MORE ADVERSE WIND AND SEA
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
PERIOD...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND/OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LIKELY...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55





000
FXUS64 KBRO 041044
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
544 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN...RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL CLEAR
SKIES WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
FOR PART OF THE DAY MAINTAINING OVERCAST CLOUD DECK ACROSS DEEP S
TEXAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE MAKING IT THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY VEERING NE TO E BY
THE THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD RETURNING NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT BREAKING THE OVC TO BKN CLOUD DECK BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THICKNESS HEIGHTS WILL BE RISE OUT WEST AND 850 MB TEMPS WARM UP
INTO 15 TO 17 DEG WHICH WILL AID FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
90S OUT WEST AND MID 80S NEAR THE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S AND UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

THURSDAY RIDGE BUILDS MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. DEW POINTS LOWER INTO THE
40S OUT WEST AND LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN
THE TEENS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND MID TO LOW 20PRECENT IN THE
MID VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER REACHING THE
MID 90S OUT WEST AND LOW 90S NEAR THE COAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 500 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE EAST...WITH THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND AREA
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EFFECTS OF THIS RIDGE...COMBINED
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING FROM THE LONE STAR STATE
TO NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE GENERALLY BETWEEN
75 AND 1.5 INCHES PRECIPITABLE-WATER-WISE...WILL PRODUCE DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE BRO CWFA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERS THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST
-TO-NORTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW...WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURE EXTREMES
CONTINUE TO NOT BE ANTICIPATED...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS RUNNING AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS S TEXAS.
SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS VEERING
WINDS EAST TO SE. DRY AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE GULF CLEARING
SKIES AND RETURNING WARM TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S. WINDS AND
SEAS AS A RESULT WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
UNFORTUNATELY ONLY PREVAIL DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE PERIOD
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MORE ADVERSE WIND AND SEA
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
PERIOD...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND/OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LIKELY...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66





000
FXUS64 KBRO 040918
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
418 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
FOR PART OF THE DAY MAINTAINING OVERCAST CLOUD DECK ACROSS DEEP S
TEXAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE MAKING IT THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY VEERING NE TO E BY
THE THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD RETURNING NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT BREAKING THE OVC TO BKN CLOUD DECK BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THICKNESS HEIGHTS WILL BE RISE OUT WEST AND 850 MB TEMPS WARM UP
INTO 15 TO 17 DEG WHICH WILL AID FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
90S OUT WEST AND MID 80S NEAR THE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S AND UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

THURSDAY RIDGE BUILDS MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. DEW POINTS LOWER INTO THE
40S OUT WEST AND LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN
THE TEENS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND MID TO LOW 20PRECENT IN THE
MID VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER REACHING THE
MID 90S OUT WEST AND LOW 90S NEAR THE COAST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 500 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE EAST...WITH THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND AREA
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EFFECTS OF THIS RIDGE...COMBINED
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING FROM THE LONE STAR STATE
TO NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE GENERALLY BETWEEN
.75 AND 1.5 INCHES PRECIPITABLE-WATER-WISE...WILL PRODUCE DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE BRO CWFA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERS THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST
-TO-NORTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW...WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURE EXTREMES
CONTINUE TO NOT BE ANTICIPATED...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS RUNNING AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS S TEXAS.
SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS VEERING
WINDS EAST TO SE. DRY AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE GULF CLEARING
SKIES AND RETURNING WARM TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S. WINDS AND
SEAS AS A RESULT WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
UNFORTUNATELY ONLY PREVAIL DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE PERIOD
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MORE ADVERSE WIND AND SEA
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
PERIOD...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND/OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LIKELY...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  83  65  87  69 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          84  64  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            86  61  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              88  63  94  66 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      92  63  96  66 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  68  82  72 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...TORRES-67
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
WX4PPT/MESO...BILLINGS-58





000
FXUS64 KBRO 040543
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1243 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWEST AS
UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS DIGS SOUTH AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER VALLEY TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH OVC 5KFT CLEARING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS VEERING TO THE
EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...ALL CLOUDS DECKS HAVE RISEN TO VFR LEVELS WITH CLOUDS
TO SLOWLY CLEAR NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH IN WAKE OF A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PASSING EAST OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
OVC-BKN CLOUD DECK TO BREAK UP AND MOVE SOUTH. LIGHT NORTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL
FINALLY PUSH OUT THE LAST OF THE LOW CLDS OVER THE RGV ALLOWING
FOR MOSTLY CLR SKIES TO PREVAIL WED AND WED NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE
A LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON INTO WED AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE CENTER OF TX. THE
SURFACE FLOW WILL THEN START TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE WED AND
WED NIGHT ALLOW FOR WEAK WAA TO START UP. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE RETURN OF THE DAYTIME HEATING WHICH SHOULD
PUSH THE TEMPS ON UP CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR EARLY MAY. LOWS TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN FAIRLY LOW ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF THE GENERALLY CLR SKIES AND LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALLOWING FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL EFFECTS.

WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE MET GUIDANCE STILL APPEARS TO HAVE A BIT TOO
COOL OF A BIAS ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TEMPS NEAR THE COASTLINE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL SET UP BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
OVERALL MOISTURE VALUES LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 90S. THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES EAST OF THE AREA
LATER SATURDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE WEEKEND AND MOISTURE VALUES SLOWLY INCREASING. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS
HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS
A WESTERN CONUS CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENS. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK AND LEE TROUGHING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ADDED
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BUT NOT MUCH OVER SLIGHT CHANCES AT
THIS TIME.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUOY DATA AND SURFACE OBS
NEAR THE COASTLINE INDICATES A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WIND
CONTINUING ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE WITH GULF SWELLS RANGING
FROM 4 TO 5 FT. EXPECT THE PGF TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE TX COASTLINE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
CALMER MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. NO SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT FOR EITHER THE BAY OR GULF WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ON ALL LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66





000
FXUS64 KBRO 040543
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1243 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWEST AS
UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS DIGS SOUTH AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER VALLEY TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH OVC 5KFT CLEARING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS VEERING TO THE
EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...ALL CLOUDS DECKS HAVE RISEN TO VFR LEVELS WITH CLOUDS
TO SLOWLY CLEAR NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH IN WAKE OF A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PASSING EAST OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
OVC-BKN CLOUD DECK TO BREAK UP AND MOVE SOUTH. LIGHT NORTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL
FINALLY PUSH OUT THE LAST OF THE LOW CLDS OVER THE RGV ALLOWING
FOR MOSTLY CLR SKIES TO PREVAIL WED AND WED NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE
A LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON INTO WED AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE CENTER OF TX. THE
SURFACE FLOW WILL THEN START TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE WED AND
WED NIGHT ALLOW FOR WEAK WAA TO START UP. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE RETURN OF THE DAYTIME HEATING WHICH SHOULD
PUSH THE TEMPS ON UP CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR EARLY MAY. LOWS TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN FAIRLY LOW ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF THE GENERALLY CLR SKIES AND LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALLOWING FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL EFFECTS.

WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE MET GUIDANCE STILL APPEARS TO HAVE A BIT TOO
COOL OF A BIAS ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TEMPS NEAR THE COASTLINE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL SET UP BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
OVERALL MOISTURE VALUES LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 90S. THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES EAST OF THE AREA
LATER SATURDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE WEEKEND AND MOISTURE VALUES SLOWLY INCREASING. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS
HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS
A WESTERN CONUS CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENS. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK AND LEE TROUGHING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ADDED
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BUT NOT MUCH OVER SLIGHT CHANCES AT
THIS TIME.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUOY DATA AND SURFACE OBS
NEAR THE COASTLINE INDICATES A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WIND
CONTINUING ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE WITH GULF SWELLS RANGING
FROM 4 TO 5 FT. EXPECT THE PGF TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE TX COASTLINE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
CALMER MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. NO SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT FOR EITHER THE BAY OR GULF WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ON ALL LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66





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