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000
FXUS64 KBRO 042330 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
630 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FINE FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH VFR IN PLACE. BREEZY WINDS WILL DOMINATE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH CALMER WINDS AT NIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BE OF NO
CONCERN.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO MOVE OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS BY TOMORROW. THIS WOULD SUPPRESS RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO
FLOURISH. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AND DRY AIR IS
HEATED MORE EFFICIENTLY THEREFORE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 100S FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TONIGHT AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHILE TROUGH ENTERS THE CA COAST.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE DECREASE
THROUGH THE LAYER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOWERING TO 1.6
TO 1.4 IN AND MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM 40 ALONG THE COAST TO
20 PERCENT OUT WEST AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THIS WARM CORE
HIGH. THE MODELS CONTINUES TO TREND FOR A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES VERY LOW AND MAINLY FAVORING THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE AS TROUGH OVER THE CA COAST LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD...
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS DEEP S TEXAS WITH SE WINDS INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO 108 TO
110 WITH ISOLATED AREAS CLOSE TO 112 ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. THIS
WEEKEND WITH MUCH MORE DRY AIR IN THE AREA EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
LOWER REDUCING THE HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ADVISORY BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS LOWER A FEW DEGREES INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER
THICKNESS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MORE EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
MARINE FORECAST AS WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY AROUND 15KTS FOR THE
GULF WATERS...WITH LAGUNA WINDS REACHING 15 TO 20. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES THIS EVENING. SEAS HAVE REMAINED IN
THE 2 TO 3 FEET RANGE TODAY AND EXPECT A SMALL SURGE TONIGHT AS SEAS
IN THE GULF COULD RISE TO AROUND 3.5 FEET. LAGUNA WATERS WILL HAVE A
MODERATE CHOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WILL BE NEARLY
SMOOTH OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ALONG
THE LAGUNA MADRE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCEC POSSIBLY
EACH AFTERNOON AND MORE MODERATE SE FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SEAS REMAINING BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FEET AT THE MOST
OVER THE GULF. OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM THE SE WINDS
INCREASE CLOSER TO SCEC. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
OVER THE GULF.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KBRO 042330 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
630 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FINE FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH VFR IN PLACE. BREEZY WINDS WILL DOMINATE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH CALMER WINDS AT NIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BE OF NO
CONCERN.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO MOVE OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS BY TOMORROW. THIS WOULD SUPPRESS RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO
FLOURISH. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AND DRY AIR IS
HEATED MORE EFFICIENTLY THEREFORE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 100S FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TONIGHT AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHILE TROUGH ENTERS THE CA COAST.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE DECREASE
THROUGH THE LAYER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOWERING TO 1.6
TO 1.4 IN AND MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM 40 ALONG THE COAST TO
20 PERCENT OUT WEST AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THIS WARM CORE
HIGH. THE MODELS CONTINUES TO TREND FOR A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES VERY LOW AND MAINLY FAVORING THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE AS TROUGH OVER THE CA COAST LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD...
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS DEEP S TEXAS WITH SE WINDS INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO 108 TO
110 WITH ISOLATED AREAS CLOSE TO 112 ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. THIS
WEEKEND WITH MUCH MORE DRY AIR IN THE AREA EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
LOWER REDUCING THE HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ADVISORY BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS LOWER A FEW DEGREES INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER
THICKNESS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MORE EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
MARINE FORECAST AS WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY AROUND 15KTS FOR THE
GULF WATERS...WITH LAGUNA WINDS REACHING 15 TO 20. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES THIS EVENING. SEAS HAVE REMAINED IN
THE 2 TO 3 FEET RANGE TODAY AND EXPECT A SMALL SURGE TONIGHT AS SEAS
IN THE GULF COULD RISE TO AROUND 3.5 FEET. LAGUNA WATERS WILL HAVE A
MODERATE CHOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WILL BE NEARLY
SMOOTH OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ALONG
THE LAGUNA MADRE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCEC POSSIBLY
EACH AFTERNOON AND MORE MODERATE SE FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SEAS REMAINING BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FEET AT THE MOST
OVER THE GULF. OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM THE SE WINDS
INCREASE CLOSER TO SCEC. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
OVER THE GULF.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV




000
FXUS64 KBRO 041953
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
253 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO MOVE OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS BY TOMORROW. THIS WOULD SUPPRESS RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO
FLOURISH. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AND DRY AIR IS
HEATED MORE EFFICIENTLY THEREFORE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 100S FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TONIGHT AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHILE TROUGH ENTERS THE CA COAST.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE DECREASE
THROUGH THE LAYER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOWERING TO 1.6
TO 1.4 IN AND MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM 40 ALONG THE COAST TO
20 PERCENT OUT WEST AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THIS WARM CORE
HIGH. THE MODELS CONTINUES TO TREND FOR A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES VERY LOW AND MAINLY FAVORING THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE AS TROUGH OVER THE CA COAST LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD...
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS DEEP S TEXAS WITH SE WINDS INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO 108 TO
110 WITH ISOLATED AREAS CLOSE TO 112 ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. THIS
WEEKEND WITH MUCH MORE DRY AIR IN THE AREA EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
LOWER REDUCING THE HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ADVISORY BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS LOWER A FEW DEGREES INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER
THICKNESS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MORE EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
MARINE FORECAST AS WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY AROUND 15KTS FOR THE
GULF WATERS...WITH LAGUNA WINDS REACHING 15 TO 20. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES THIS EVENING. SEAS HAVE REMAINED IN
THE 2 TO 3 FEET RANGE TODAY AND EXPECT A SMALL SURGE TONIGHT AS SEAS
IN THE GULF COULD RISE TO AROUND 3.5 FEET. LAGUNA WATERS WILL HAVE A
MODERATE CHOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WILL BE NEARLY
SMOOTH OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ALONG
THE LAGUNA MADRE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCEC POSSIBLY
EACH AFTERNOON AND MORE MODERATE SE FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SEAS REMAINING BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FEET AT THE MOST
OVER THE GULF. OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM THE SE WINDS
INCREASE CLOSER TO SCEC. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
OVER THE GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  95  81  95 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          80  95  79  96 /   0  10   0   0
HARLINGEN            79 100  79 100 /   0  10   0   0
MCALLEN              80 104  80 102 /   0  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 104  79 104 /   0  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  91  82  91 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

99/67





000
FXUS64 KBRO 041953
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
253 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO MOVE OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS BY TOMORROW. THIS WOULD SUPPRESS RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO
FLOURISH. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AND DRY AIR IS
HEATED MORE EFFICIENTLY THEREFORE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 100S FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TONIGHT AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHILE TROUGH ENTERS THE CA COAST.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE DECREASE
THROUGH THE LAYER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOWERING TO 1.6
TO 1.4 IN AND MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM 40 ALONG THE COAST TO
20 PERCENT OUT WEST AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THIS WARM CORE
HIGH. THE MODELS CONTINUES TO TREND FOR A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES VERY LOW AND MAINLY FAVORING THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE AS TROUGH OVER THE CA COAST LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD...
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS DEEP S TEXAS WITH SE WINDS INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO 108 TO
110 WITH ISOLATED AREAS CLOSE TO 112 ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. THIS
WEEKEND WITH MUCH MORE DRY AIR IN THE AREA EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
LOWER REDUCING THE HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ADVISORY BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS LOWER A FEW DEGREES INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER
THICKNESS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MORE EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
MARINE FORECAST AS WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY AROUND 15KTS FOR THE
GULF WATERS...WITH LAGUNA WINDS REACHING 15 TO 20. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES THIS EVENING. SEAS HAVE REMAINED IN
THE 2 TO 3 FEET RANGE TODAY AND EXPECT A SMALL SURGE TONIGHT AS SEAS
IN THE GULF COULD RISE TO AROUND 3.5 FEET. LAGUNA WATERS WILL HAVE A
MODERATE CHOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WILL BE NEARLY
SMOOTH OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ALONG
THE LAGUNA MADRE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCEC POSSIBLY
EACH AFTERNOON AND MORE MODERATE SE FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SEAS REMAINING BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FEET AT THE MOST
OVER THE GULF. OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM THE SE WINDS
INCREASE CLOSER TO SCEC. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
OVER THE GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  95  81  95 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          80  95  79  96 /   0  10   0   0
HARLINGEN            79 100  79 100 /   0  10   0   0
MCALLEN              80 104  80 102 /   0  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 104  79 104 /   0  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  91  82  91 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

99/67




000
FXUS64 KBRO 041953
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
253 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO MOVE OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS BY TOMORROW. THIS WOULD SUPPRESS RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO
FLOURISH. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AND DRY AIR IS
HEATED MORE EFFICIENTLY THEREFORE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 100S FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TONIGHT AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHILE TROUGH ENTERS THE CA COAST.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE DECREASE
THROUGH THE LAYER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOWERING TO 1.6
TO 1.4 IN AND MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM 40 ALONG THE COAST TO
20 PERCENT OUT WEST AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THIS WARM CORE
HIGH. THE MODELS CONTINUES TO TREND FOR A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES VERY LOW AND MAINLY FAVORING THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE AS TROUGH OVER THE CA COAST LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD...
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS DEEP S TEXAS WITH SE WINDS INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO 108 TO
110 WITH ISOLATED AREAS CLOSE TO 112 ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. THIS
WEEKEND WITH MUCH MORE DRY AIR IN THE AREA EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
LOWER REDUCING THE HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ADVISORY BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS LOWER A FEW DEGREES INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER
THICKNESS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MORE EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
MARINE FORECAST AS WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY AROUND 15KTS FOR THE
GULF WATERS...WITH LAGUNA WINDS REACHING 15 TO 20. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES THIS EVENING. SEAS HAVE REMAINED IN
THE 2 TO 3 FEET RANGE TODAY AND EXPECT A SMALL SURGE TONIGHT AS SEAS
IN THE GULF COULD RISE TO AROUND 3.5 FEET. LAGUNA WATERS WILL HAVE A
MODERATE CHOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WILL BE NEARLY
SMOOTH OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ALONG
THE LAGUNA MADRE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCEC POSSIBLY
EACH AFTERNOON AND MORE MODERATE SE FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SEAS REMAINING BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FEET AT THE MOST
OVER THE GULF. OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM THE SE WINDS
INCREASE CLOSER TO SCEC. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
OVER THE GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  95  81  95 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          80  95  79  96 /   0  10   0   0
HARLINGEN            79 100  79 100 /   0  10   0   0
MCALLEN              80 104  80 102 /   0  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 104  79 104 /   0  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  91  82  91 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

99/67





000
FXUS64 KBRO 041740
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1240 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW CLOUDS OUT THERE AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS REACHING 15KTS AT ALL AIRPORTS
WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS. 13/MH

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS IS PUSHED TO THE NORTH AND WEST AWAY FROM THE VALLEY. PW
VALUE INFERRED FROM GOES IMAGERY SHOW VALUES ALREADY BELOW 1.5
INCHES MOVING INTO THE LOWER VALLEY. WITH THIS DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE ENDING TODAY. THE DRIER AIR MIXING
DOWN TO THE SFC WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE LOW 100S
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 104 AT KMFE TODAY WOULD TIE A RECORD SET IN 2009.
KBRO AND KHRL RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THREATENED OTHERWISE.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER HOT AND DRY
ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER OF MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY TO THE VICINITY OF ARKLATEX SATURDAY
WITH THE AXIS ANCHORING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT IS
INDICATED TO DECREASE WITH TIME WITH MEAN RH LEVELS AT OR BELOW 50
PERCENT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NORTH TEXAS TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE 04/00Z GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH PASSING ACROSS DEEP STX FRIDAY AND WITH LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SQUASHED. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH AND
MOISTURE CHARTS ARE EVEN DRIER WITH THIS MODEL. LOOKING AT THE
MEXMOS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ALL POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE GULF WATERS WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. SO NO INLAND RAIN WILL BE INDICATED DURING
THE LONG TERM AT THIS TIME.

AT THE SURFACE A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THU-SUN AS A
LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE OR THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND NE MEXICO COMBINING WITH THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
GULF WATERS. EXPECT A RETURN OF BREEZY TO GUSTY AFTERNOONS WITH SCEC
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE LAGUNA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A NO-BRAINER WITH GUIDANCE PUSHING MID TO UPPER
90S LOWER VALLEY AND NEAR 100 TO WELL OVER THE CENTURY MARK MID TO
UPPER VALLEY AS WELL AS WESTERN AND NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE RANGE WITHIN THE 22-25 DEGREE RANGE WHICH CONCURS WITH
THE HOT TO VERY HOT GUIDANCE VALUES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GRADIENT BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS STRENGTHENING SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF INTERACTS WITH BUILDING HEAT LOW TO THE WEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN STEADY AROUND 15KTS FOR THE GULF WATERS TODAY...WITH
LAGUNA WINDS REACHING 15 TO 20. MARINERS ARE URGED CAUTION ON THE
LAGUNA ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE REACHED 3 FEET OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. LAGUNA WATERS WILL HAVE A MODERATE CHOP DURING THE DAY AND
WILL BE NEARLY SMOOTH OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OF NE MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THE LAGUNA MAY WARRANT EXERCISE CAUTION VALUES EACH
AFTERNOON. ON THE GULF THE MODERATE WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MODERATE RANGE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

99/99




000
FXUS64 KBRO 041740
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1240 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW CLOUDS OUT THERE AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS REACHING 15KTS AT ALL AIRPORTS
WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS. 13/MH

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS IS PUSHED TO THE NORTH AND WEST AWAY FROM THE VALLEY. PW
VALUE INFERRED FROM GOES IMAGERY SHOW VALUES ALREADY BELOW 1.5
INCHES MOVING INTO THE LOWER VALLEY. WITH THIS DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE ENDING TODAY. THE DRIER AIR MIXING
DOWN TO THE SFC WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE LOW 100S
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 104 AT KMFE TODAY WOULD TIE A RECORD SET IN 2009.
KBRO AND KHRL RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THREATENED OTHERWISE.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER HOT AND DRY
ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER OF MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY TO THE VICINITY OF ARKLATEX SATURDAY
WITH THE AXIS ANCHORING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT IS
INDICATED TO DECREASE WITH TIME WITH MEAN RH LEVELS AT OR BELOW 50
PERCENT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NORTH TEXAS TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE 04/00Z GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH PASSING ACROSS DEEP STX FRIDAY AND WITH LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SQUASHED. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH AND
MOISTURE CHARTS ARE EVEN DRIER WITH THIS MODEL. LOOKING AT THE
MEXMOS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ALL POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE GULF WATERS WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. SO NO INLAND RAIN WILL BE INDICATED DURING
THE LONG TERM AT THIS TIME.

AT THE SURFACE A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THU-SUN AS A
LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE OR THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND NE MEXICO COMBINING WITH THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
GULF WATERS. EXPECT A RETURN OF BREEZY TO GUSTY AFTERNOONS WITH SCEC
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE LAGUNA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A NO-BRAINER WITH GUIDANCE PUSHING MID TO UPPER
90S LOWER VALLEY AND NEAR 100 TO WELL OVER THE CENTURY MARK MID TO
UPPER VALLEY AS WELL AS WESTERN AND NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE RANGE WITHIN THE 22-25 DEGREE RANGE WHICH CONCURS WITH
THE HOT TO VERY HOT GUIDANCE VALUES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GRADIENT BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS STRENGTHENING SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF INTERACTS WITH BUILDING HEAT LOW TO THE WEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN STEADY AROUND 15KTS FOR THE GULF WATERS TODAY...WITH
LAGUNA WINDS REACHING 15 TO 20. MARINERS ARE URGED CAUTION ON THE
LAGUNA ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE REACHED 3 FEET OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. LAGUNA WATERS WILL HAVE A MODERATE CHOP DURING THE DAY AND
WILL BE NEARLY SMOOTH OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OF NE MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THE LAGUNA MAY WARRANT EXERCISE CAUTION VALUES EACH
AFTERNOON. ON THE GULF THE MODERATE WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MODERATE RANGE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

99/99





000
FXUS64 KBRO 041131 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUD COVER LIMITED TO FEW DRIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NORTH. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TODAY AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACROSS THE VALLEY. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL REACH 15KTS AT ALL AIRPORTS WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE
LOW 20S. SFC TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL REACH NEAR 105 DEGREES.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS IS PUSHED TO THE NORTH AND WEST AWAY FROM THE VALLEY. PW
VALUE INFERRED FROM GOES IMAGERY SHOW VALUES ALREADY BELOW 1.5
INCHES MOVING INTO THE LOWER VALLEY. WITH THIS DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE ENDING TODAY. THE DRIER AIR MIXING
DOWN TO THE SFC WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE LOW 100S
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 104 AT KMFE TODAY WOULD TIE A RECORD SET IN 2009.
KBRO AND KHRL RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THREATENED OTHERWISE.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER HOT AND DRY
ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER OF MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY TO THE VICINITY OF ARKLATEX SATURDAY
WITH THE AXIS ANCHORING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT IS
INDICATED TO DECREASE WITH TIME WITH MEAN RH LEVELS AT OR BELOW 50
PERCENT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NORTH TEXAS TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE 04/00Z GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH PASSING ACROSS DEEP STX FRIDAY AND WITH LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SQUASHED. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH AND
MOISTURE CHARTS ARE EVEN DRIER WITH THIS MODEL. LOOKING AT THE
MEXMOS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ALL POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE GULF WATERS WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. SO NO INLAND RAIN WILL BE INDICATED DURING
THE LONG TERM AT THIS TIME.

AT THE SURFACE A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THU-SUN AS A
LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE OR THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND NE MEXICO COMBINING WITH THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
GULF WATERS. EXPECT A RETURN OF BREEZY TO GUSTY AFTERNOONS WITH SCEC
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE LAGUNA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A NO-BRAINER WITH GUIDANCE PUSHING MID TO UPPER
90S LOWER VALLEY AND NEAR 100 TO WELL OVER THE CENTURY MARK MID TO
UPPER VALLEY AS WELL AS WESTERN AND NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE RANGE WITHIN THE 22-25 DEGREE RANGE WHICH CONCURS WITH
THE HOT TO VERY HOT GUIDANCE VALUES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GRADIENT BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS STRENGTHENING SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF INTERACTS WITH BUILDING HEAT LOW TO THE WEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN STEADY AROUND 15KTS FOR THE GULF WATERS TODAY...WITH
LAGUNA WINDS REACHING 15 TO 20. MARINERS ARE URGED CAUTION ON THE
LAGUNA ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE REACHED 3 FEET OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. LAGUNA WATERS WILL HAVE A MODERATE CHOP DURING THE DAY AND
WILL BE NEARLY SMOOTH OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OF NE MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THE LAGUNA MAY WARRANT EXERCISE CAUTION VALUES EACH
AFTERNOON. ON THE GULF THE MODERATE WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MODERATE RANGE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64





000
FXUS64 KBRO 041131 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUD COVER LIMITED TO FEW DRIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NORTH. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TODAY AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACROSS THE VALLEY. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL REACH 15KTS AT ALL AIRPORTS WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE
LOW 20S. SFC TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL REACH NEAR 105 DEGREES.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS IS PUSHED TO THE NORTH AND WEST AWAY FROM THE VALLEY. PW
VALUE INFERRED FROM GOES IMAGERY SHOW VALUES ALREADY BELOW 1.5
INCHES MOVING INTO THE LOWER VALLEY. WITH THIS DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE ENDING TODAY. THE DRIER AIR MIXING
DOWN TO THE SFC WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE LOW 100S
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 104 AT KMFE TODAY WOULD TIE A RECORD SET IN 2009.
KBRO AND KHRL RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THREATENED OTHERWISE.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER HOT AND DRY
ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER OF MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY TO THE VICINITY OF ARKLATEX SATURDAY
WITH THE AXIS ANCHORING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT IS
INDICATED TO DECREASE WITH TIME WITH MEAN RH LEVELS AT OR BELOW 50
PERCENT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NORTH TEXAS TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE 04/00Z GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH PASSING ACROSS DEEP STX FRIDAY AND WITH LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SQUASHED. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH AND
MOISTURE CHARTS ARE EVEN DRIER WITH THIS MODEL. LOOKING AT THE
MEXMOS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ALL POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE GULF WATERS WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. SO NO INLAND RAIN WILL BE INDICATED DURING
THE LONG TERM AT THIS TIME.

AT THE SURFACE A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THU-SUN AS A
LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE OR THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND NE MEXICO COMBINING WITH THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
GULF WATERS. EXPECT A RETURN OF BREEZY TO GUSTY AFTERNOONS WITH SCEC
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE LAGUNA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A NO-BRAINER WITH GUIDANCE PUSHING MID TO UPPER
90S LOWER VALLEY AND NEAR 100 TO WELL OVER THE CENTURY MARK MID TO
UPPER VALLEY AS WELL AS WESTERN AND NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE RANGE WITHIN THE 22-25 DEGREE RANGE WHICH CONCURS WITH
THE HOT TO VERY HOT GUIDANCE VALUES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GRADIENT BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS STRENGTHENING SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF INTERACTS WITH BUILDING HEAT LOW TO THE WEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN STEADY AROUND 15KTS FOR THE GULF WATERS TODAY...WITH
LAGUNA WINDS REACHING 15 TO 20. MARINERS ARE URGED CAUTION ON THE
LAGUNA ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE REACHED 3 FEET OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. LAGUNA WATERS WILL HAVE A MODERATE CHOP DURING THE DAY AND
WILL BE NEARLY SMOOTH OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OF NE MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THE LAGUNA MAY WARRANT EXERCISE CAUTION VALUES EACH
AFTERNOON. ON THE GULF THE MODERATE WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MODERATE RANGE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64




000
FXUS64 KBRO 041131 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUD COVER LIMITED TO FEW DRIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NORTH. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TODAY AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACROSS THE VALLEY. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL REACH 15KTS AT ALL AIRPORTS WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE
LOW 20S. SFC TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL REACH NEAR 105 DEGREES.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS IS PUSHED TO THE NORTH AND WEST AWAY FROM THE VALLEY. PW
VALUE INFERRED FROM GOES IMAGERY SHOW VALUES ALREADY BELOW 1.5
INCHES MOVING INTO THE LOWER VALLEY. WITH THIS DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE ENDING TODAY. THE DRIER AIR MIXING
DOWN TO THE SFC WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE LOW 100S
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 104 AT KMFE TODAY WOULD TIE A RECORD SET IN 2009.
KBRO AND KHRL RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THREATENED OTHERWISE.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER HOT AND DRY
ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER OF MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY TO THE VICINITY OF ARKLATEX SATURDAY
WITH THE AXIS ANCHORING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT IS
INDICATED TO DECREASE WITH TIME WITH MEAN RH LEVELS AT OR BELOW 50
PERCENT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NORTH TEXAS TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE 04/00Z GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH PASSING ACROSS DEEP STX FRIDAY AND WITH LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SQUASHED. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH AND
MOISTURE CHARTS ARE EVEN DRIER WITH THIS MODEL. LOOKING AT THE
MEXMOS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ALL POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE GULF WATERS WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. SO NO INLAND RAIN WILL BE INDICATED DURING
THE LONG TERM AT THIS TIME.

AT THE SURFACE A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THU-SUN AS A
LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE OR THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND NE MEXICO COMBINING WITH THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
GULF WATERS. EXPECT A RETURN OF BREEZY TO GUSTY AFTERNOONS WITH SCEC
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE LAGUNA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A NO-BRAINER WITH GUIDANCE PUSHING MID TO UPPER
90S LOWER VALLEY AND NEAR 100 TO WELL OVER THE CENTURY MARK MID TO
UPPER VALLEY AS WELL AS WESTERN AND NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE RANGE WITHIN THE 22-25 DEGREE RANGE WHICH CONCURS WITH
THE HOT TO VERY HOT GUIDANCE VALUES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GRADIENT BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS STRENGTHENING SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF INTERACTS WITH BUILDING HEAT LOW TO THE WEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN STEADY AROUND 15KTS FOR THE GULF WATERS TODAY...WITH
LAGUNA WINDS REACHING 15 TO 20. MARINERS ARE URGED CAUTION ON THE
LAGUNA ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE REACHED 3 FEET OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. LAGUNA WATERS WILL HAVE A MODERATE CHOP DURING THE DAY AND
WILL BE NEARLY SMOOTH OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OF NE MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THE LAGUNA MAY WARRANT EXERCISE CAUTION VALUES EACH
AFTERNOON. ON THE GULF THE MODERATE WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MODERATE RANGE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64




000
FXUS64 KBRO 041131 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUD COVER LIMITED TO FEW DRIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NORTH. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TODAY AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACROSS THE VALLEY. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL REACH 15KTS AT ALL AIRPORTS WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE
LOW 20S. SFC TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL REACH NEAR 105 DEGREES.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS IS PUSHED TO THE NORTH AND WEST AWAY FROM THE VALLEY. PW
VALUE INFERRED FROM GOES IMAGERY SHOW VALUES ALREADY BELOW 1.5
INCHES MOVING INTO THE LOWER VALLEY. WITH THIS DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE ENDING TODAY. THE DRIER AIR MIXING
DOWN TO THE SFC WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE LOW 100S
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 104 AT KMFE TODAY WOULD TIE A RECORD SET IN 2009.
KBRO AND KHRL RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THREATENED OTHERWISE.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER HOT AND DRY
ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER OF MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY TO THE VICINITY OF ARKLATEX SATURDAY
WITH THE AXIS ANCHORING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT IS
INDICATED TO DECREASE WITH TIME WITH MEAN RH LEVELS AT OR BELOW 50
PERCENT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NORTH TEXAS TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE 04/00Z GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH PASSING ACROSS DEEP STX FRIDAY AND WITH LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SQUASHED. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH AND
MOISTURE CHARTS ARE EVEN DRIER WITH THIS MODEL. LOOKING AT THE
MEXMOS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ALL POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE GULF WATERS WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. SO NO INLAND RAIN WILL BE INDICATED DURING
THE LONG TERM AT THIS TIME.

AT THE SURFACE A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THU-SUN AS A
LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE OR THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND NE MEXICO COMBINING WITH THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
GULF WATERS. EXPECT A RETURN OF BREEZY TO GUSTY AFTERNOONS WITH SCEC
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE LAGUNA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A NO-BRAINER WITH GUIDANCE PUSHING MID TO UPPER
90S LOWER VALLEY AND NEAR 100 TO WELL OVER THE CENTURY MARK MID TO
UPPER VALLEY AS WELL AS WESTERN AND NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE RANGE WITHIN THE 22-25 DEGREE RANGE WHICH CONCURS WITH
THE HOT TO VERY HOT GUIDANCE VALUES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GRADIENT BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS STRENGTHENING SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF INTERACTS WITH BUILDING HEAT LOW TO THE WEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN STEADY AROUND 15KTS FOR THE GULF WATERS TODAY...WITH
LAGUNA WINDS REACHING 15 TO 20. MARINERS ARE URGED CAUTION ON THE
LAGUNA ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE REACHED 3 FEET OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. LAGUNA WATERS WILL HAVE A MODERATE CHOP DURING THE DAY AND
WILL BE NEARLY SMOOTH OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OF NE MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THE LAGUNA MAY WARRANT EXERCISE CAUTION VALUES EACH
AFTERNOON. ON THE GULF THE MODERATE WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MODERATE RANGE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64





000
FXUS64 KBRO 040846
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
346 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS IS PUSHED TO THE NORTH AND WEST AWAY FROM THE VALLEY. PW
VALUE INFERRED FROM GOES IMAGERY SHOW VALUES ALREADY BELOW 1.5
INCHES MOVING INTO THE LOWER VALLEY. WITH THIS DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE ENDING TODAY. THE DRIER AIR MIXING
DOWN TO THE SFC WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE LOW 100S
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 104 AT KMFE TODAY WOULD TIE A RECORD SET IN 2009.
KBRO AND KHRL RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THREATENED OTHERWISE.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER HOT AND DRY
ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER OF MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY TO THE VICINITY OF ARKLATEX SATURDAY
WITH THE AXIS ANCHORING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT IS
INDICATED TO DECREASE WITH TIME WITH MEAN RH LEVELS AT OR BELOW 50
PERCENT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NORTH TEXAS TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE 04/00Z GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH PASSING ACROSS DEEP STX FRIDAY AND WITH LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SQUASHED. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH AND
MOISTURE CHARTS ARE EVEN DRIER WITH THIS MODEL. LOOKING AT THE
MEXMOS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ALL POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE GULF WATERS WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. SO NO INLAND RAIN WILL BE INDICATED DURING
THE LONG TERM AT THIS TIME.

AT THE SURFACE A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THU-SUN AS A
LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE OR THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND NE MEXICO COMBINING WITH THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
GULF WATERS. EXPECT A RETURN OF BREEZY TO GUSTY AFTERNOONS WITH SCEC
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE LAGUNA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A NO-BRAINER WITH GUIDANCE PUSHING MID TO UPPER
90S LOWER VALLEY AND NEAR 100 TO WELL OVER THE CENTURY MARK MID TO
UPPER VALLEY AS WELL AS WESTERN AND NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE RANGE WITHIN THE 22-25 DEGREE RANGE WHICH CONCURS WITH
THE HOT TO VERY HOT GUIDANCE VALUES.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GRADIENT BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS STRENGTHENING SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF INTERACTS WITH BUILDING HEAT LOW TO THE WEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN STEADY AROUND 15KTS FOR THE GULF WATERS TODAY...WITH
LAGUNA WINDS REACHING 15 TO 20. MARINERS ARE URGED CAUTION ON THE
LAGUNA ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE REACHED 3 FEET OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. LAGUNA WATERS WILL HAVE A MODERATE CHOP DURING THE DAY AND
WILL BE NEARLY SMOOTH OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OF NE MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THE LAGUNA MAY WARRANT EXERCISE CAUTION VALUES EACH
AFTERNOON. ON THE GULF THE MODERATE WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MODERATE RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  95  80  95  81 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          95  80  95  79 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN           100  78 100  78 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN             104  79 104  80 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     105  78 104  79 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  81  91  82 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KBRO 040846
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
346 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS IS PUSHED TO THE NORTH AND WEST AWAY FROM THE VALLEY. PW
VALUE INFERRED FROM GOES IMAGERY SHOW VALUES ALREADY BELOW 1.5
INCHES MOVING INTO THE LOWER VALLEY. WITH THIS DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE ENDING TODAY. THE DRIER AIR MIXING
DOWN TO THE SFC WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE LOW 100S
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 104 AT KMFE TODAY WOULD TIE A RECORD SET IN 2009.
KBRO AND KHRL RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THREATENED OTHERWISE.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER HOT AND DRY
ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER OF MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY TO THE VICINITY OF ARKLATEX SATURDAY
WITH THE AXIS ANCHORING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT IS
INDICATED TO DECREASE WITH TIME WITH MEAN RH LEVELS AT OR BELOW 50
PERCENT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NORTH TEXAS TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE 04/00Z GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH PASSING ACROSS DEEP STX FRIDAY AND WITH LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SQUASHED. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH AND
MOISTURE CHARTS ARE EVEN DRIER WITH THIS MODEL. LOOKING AT THE
MEXMOS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ALL POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE GULF WATERS WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. SO NO INLAND RAIN WILL BE INDICATED DURING
THE LONG TERM AT THIS TIME.

AT THE SURFACE A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THU-SUN AS A
LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE OR THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND NE MEXICO COMBINING WITH THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
GULF WATERS. EXPECT A RETURN OF BREEZY TO GUSTY AFTERNOONS WITH SCEC
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE LAGUNA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A NO-BRAINER WITH GUIDANCE PUSHING MID TO UPPER
90S LOWER VALLEY AND NEAR 100 TO WELL OVER THE CENTURY MARK MID TO
UPPER VALLEY AS WELL AS WESTERN AND NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE RANGE WITHIN THE 22-25 DEGREE RANGE WHICH CONCURS WITH
THE HOT TO VERY HOT GUIDANCE VALUES.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GRADIENT BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS STRENGTHENING SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF INTERACTS WITH BUILDING HEAT LOW TO THE WEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN STEADY AROUND 15KTS FOR THE GULF WATERS TODAY...WITH
LAGUNA WINDS REACHING 15 TO 20. MARINERS ARE URGED CAUTION ON THE
LAGUNA ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE REACHED 3 FEET OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. LAGUNA WATERS WILL HAVE A MODERATE CHOP DURING THE DAY AND
WILL BE NEARLY SMOOTH OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OF NE MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THE LAGUNA MAY WARRANT EXERCISE CAUTION VALUES EACH
AFTERNOON. ON THE GULF THE MODERATE WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MODERATE RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  95  80  95  81 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          95  80  95  79 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN           100  78 100  78 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN             104  79 104  80 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     105  78 104  79 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  81  91  82 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KBRO 040541 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1241 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN AVIATION ISSUE WILL BE A FEW LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
INLAND AROUND KMFE...BUT OTHERWISE CIGS WILL BE SCT OR LESS ABOVE
4000 FEET THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP
LATE MORNING...REACHING 15 TO 20KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...APPEARS VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DIMINISHING WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BREEZY LEVELS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDINESS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE DESERT
SW DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHILE A PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA. KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS THE INCREASE OF
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 2.3 INCHES THIS MORNING
BUT THE ATMS IS WELL CAPPED LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST NEAR KENEDY AND BROOKS COUNTY IN THE RANCHLANDS.
CU STARTING TO BUILD WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECK AROUND 5000 FT ACROSS
THE NE WITH SKC ACROSS THE VALLEY. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LEAN TOWARDS INCREASING MAX TEMPS ONE TO TWO DEG
TODAY. TONIGHT...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS WITH THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND SO DOES THE LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA. INTO TUESDAY TIGHT THICKNESS VALUES WITH
850 MB TEMPS ABOVE 20 DEG C WITH DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WEST FROM MCALLEN INTO RIO GRANDE CITY AND
ZAPATA. ACROSS THE EAST...TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S. DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN MIXING WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTENT
NEAR 850 MB LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS TUE NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TUESDAY WILL AMPLIFY WEDNESDAY
AND THAT SHOULD HINDER ANY POSSIBILITY OF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THURSDAY. THIS COULD ALLOW A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS IS MORE
ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLUTION AND SHOWS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY AS A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY AND ACROSS NORTHEAST
MEXICO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD RIDE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE
ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AS IT
HOLDS THE RIDE MORE FIRM AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT MORE THAN
TODAY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH TEMP GRADIENT SETTING UP ALONG THE
COAST. EXPECT SCEC CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE BAY. OVER
THE GULF...EXPECT MODERATE WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
AND MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64





000
FXUS64 KBRO 040541 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1241 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN AVIATION ISSUE WILL BE A FEW LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
INLAND AROUND KMFE...BUT OTHERWISE CIGS WILL BE SCT OR LESS ABOVE
4000 FEET THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP
LATE MORNING...REACHING 15 TO 20KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...APPEARS VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DIMINISHING WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BREEZY LEVELS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDINESS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE DESERT
SW DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHILE A PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA. KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS THE INCREASE OF
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 2.3 INCHES THIS MORNING
BUT THE ATMS IS WELL CAPPED LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST NEAR KENEDY AND BROOKS COUNTY IN THE RANCHLANDS.
CU STARTING TO BUILD WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECK AROUND 5000 FT ACROSS
THE NE WITH SKC ACROSS THE VALLEY. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LEAN TOWARDS INCREASING MAX TEMPS ONE TO TWO DEG
TODAY. TONIGHT...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS WITH THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND SO DOES THE LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA. INTO TUESDAY TIGHT THICKNESS VALUES WITH
850 MB TEMPS ABOVE 20 DEG C WITH DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WEST FROM MCALLEN INTO RIO GRANDE CITY AND
ZAPATA. ACROSS THE EAST...TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S. DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN MIXING WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTENT
NEAR 850 MB LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS TUE NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TUESDAY WILL AMPLIFY WEDNESDAY
AND THAT SHOULD HINDER ANY POSSIBILITY OF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THURSDAY. THIS COULD ALLOW A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS IS MORE
ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLUTION AND SHOWS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY AS A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY AND ACROSS NORTHEAST
MEXICO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD RIDE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE
ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AS IT
HOLDS THE RIDE MORE FIRM AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT MORE THAN
TODAY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH TEMP GRADIENT SETTING UP ALONG THE
COAST. EXPECT SCEC CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE BAY. OVER
THE GULF...EXPECT MODERATE WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
AND MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64





000
FXUS64 KBRO 040541 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1241 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN AVIATION ISSUE WILL BE A FEW LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
INLAND AROUND KMFE...BUT OTHERWISE CIGS WILL BE SCT OR LESS ABOVE
4000 FEET THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP
LATE MORNING...REACHING 15 TO 20KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...APPEARS VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DIMINISHING WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BREEZY LEVELS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDINESS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE DESERT
SW DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHILE A PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA. KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS THE INCREASE OF
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 2.3 INCHES THIS MORNING
BUT THE ATMS IS WELL CAPPED LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST NEAR KENEDY AND BROOKS COUNTY IN THE RANCHLANDS.
CU STARTING TO BUILD WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECK AROUND 5000 FT ACROSS
THE NE WITH SKC ACROSS THE VALLEY. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LEAN TOWARDS INCREASING MAX TEMPS ONE TO TWO DEG
TODAY. TONIGHT...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS WITH THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND SO DOES THE LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA. INTO TUESDAY TIGHT THICKNESS VALUES WITH
850 MB TEMPS ABOVE 20 DEG C WITH DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WEST FROM MCALLEN INTO RIO GRANDE CITY AND
ZAPATA. ACROSS THE EAST...TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S. DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN MIXING WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTENT
NEAR 850 MB LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS TUE NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TUESDAY WILL AMPLIFY WEDNESDAY
AND THAT SHOULD HINDER ANY POSSIBILITY OF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THURSDAY. THIS COULD ALLOW A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS IS MORE
ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLUTION AND SHOWS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY AS A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY AND ACROSS NORTHEAST
MEXICO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD RIDE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE
ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AS IT
HOLDS THE RIDE MORE FIRM AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT MORE THAN
TODAY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH TEMP GRADIENT SETTING UP ALONG THE
COAST. EXPECT SCEC CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE BAY. OVER
THE GULF...EXPECT MODERATE WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
AND MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64




000
FXUS64 KBRO 032338 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
638 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...APPEARS VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DIMINISHING WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BREEZY LEVELS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDINESS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE DESERT
SW DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHILE A PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA. KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS THE INCREASE OF
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 2.3 INCHES THIS MORNING
BUT THE ATMS IS WELL CAPPED LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST NEAR KENEDY AND BROOKS COUNTY IN THE RANCHLANDS.
CU STARTING TO BUILD WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECK AROUND 5000 FT ACROSS
THE NE WITH SKC ACROSS THE VALLEY. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LEAN TOWARDS INCREASING MAX TEMPS ONE TO TWO DEG
TODAY. TONIGHT...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS WITH THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND SO DOES THE LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA. INTO TUESDAY TIGHT THICKNESS VALUES WITH
850 MB TEMPS ABOVE 20 DEG C WITH DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WEST FROM MCALLEN INTO RIO GRANDE CITY AND
ZAPATA. ACROSS THE EAST...TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S. DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN MIXING WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTENT
NEAR 850 MB LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS TUE NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TUESDAY WILL AMPLIFY WEDNESDAY
AND THAT SHOULD HINDER ANY POSSIBILITY OF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THURSDAY. THIS COULD ALLOW A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS IS MORE
ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLUTION AND SHOWS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY AS A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY AND ACROSS NORTHEAST
MEXICO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD RIDE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE
ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AS IT
HOLDS THE RIDE MORE FIRM AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT MORE THAN
TODAY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH TEMP GRADIENT SETTING UP ALONG THE
COAST. EXPECT SCEC CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE BAY. OVER
THE GULF...EXPECT MODERATE WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
AND MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV




000
FXUS64 KBRO 031950
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE DESERT
SW DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHILE A PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA. KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS THE INCREASE OF
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 2.3 INCHES THIS MORNING
BUT THE ATMS IS WELL CAPPED LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST NEAR KENEDY AND BROOKS COUNTY IN THE RANCHLANDS.
CU STARTING TO BUILD WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECK AROUND 5000 FT ACROSS
THE NE WITH SKC ACROSS THE VALLEY. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LEAN TOWARDS INCREASING MAX TEMPS ONE TO TWO DEG
TODAY. TONIGHT...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS WITH THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND SO DOES THE LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA. INTO TUESDAY TIGHT THICKNESS VALUES WITH
850 MB TEMPS ABOVE 20 DEG C WITH DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WEST FROM MCALLEN INTO RIO GRANDE CITY AND
ZAPATA. ACROSS THE EAST...TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S. DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN MIXING WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTENT
NEAR 850 MB LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS TUE NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TUESDAY WILL AMPLIFY WEDNESDAY
AND THAT SHOULD HINDER ANY POSSIBILITY OF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THURSDAY. THIS COULD ALLOW A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS IS MORE
ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLUTION AND SHOWS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY AS A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY AND ACROSS NORTHEAST
MEXICO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD RIDE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE
ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AS IT
HOLDS THE RIDE MORE FIRM AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT MORE THAN
TODAY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH TEMP GRADIENT SETTING UP ALONG THE
COAST. EXPECT SCEC CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE BAY. OVER
THE GULF...EXPECT MODERATE WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
AND MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  93  80  93 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          76  93  80  95 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            76  98  78  98 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              78 102  79 100 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      75 103  78 102 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  86  81  89 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/13





000
FXUS64 KBRO 031950
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE DESERT
SW DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHILE A PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA. KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS THE INCREASE OF
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 2.3 INCHES THIS MORNING
BUT THE ATMS IS WELL CAPPED LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST NEAR KENEDY AND BROOKS COUNTY IN THE RANCHLANDS.
CU STARTING TO BUILD WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECK AROUND 5000 FT ACROSS
THE NE WITH SKC ACROSS THE VALLEY. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LEAN TOWARDS INCREASING MAX TEMPS ONE TO TWO DEG
TODAY. TONIGHT...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS WITH THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND SO DOES THE LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA. INTO TUESDAY TIGHT THICKNESS VALUES WITH
850 MB TEMPS ABOVE 20 DEG C WITH DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WEST FROM MCALLEN INTO RIO GRANDE CITY AND
ZAPATA. ACROSS THE EAST...TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S. DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN MIXING WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTENT
NEAR 850 MB LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS TUE NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TUESDAY WILL AMPLIFY WEDNESDAY
AND THAT SHOULD HINDER ANY POSSIBILITY OF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THURSDAY. THIS COULD ALLOW A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS IS MORE
ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLUTION AND SHOWS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY AS A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY AND ACROSS NORTHEAST
MEXICO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD RIDE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE
ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AS IT
HOLDS THE RIDE MORE FIRM AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT MORE THAN
TODAY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH TEMP GRADIENT SETTING UP ALONG THE
COAST. EXPECT SCEC CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE BAY. OVER
THE GULF...EXPECT MODERATE WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
AND MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  93  80  93 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          76  93  80  95 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            76  98  78  98 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              78 102  79 100 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      75 103  78 102 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  86  81  89 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/13




000
FXUS64 KBRO 031950
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE DESERT
SW DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHILE A PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA. KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS THE INCREASE OF
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 2.3 INCHES THIS MORNING
BUT THE ATMS IS WELL CAPPED LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST NEAR KENEDY AND BROOKS COUNTY IN THE RANCHLANDS.
CU STARTING TO BUILD WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECK AROUND 5000 FT ACROSS
THE NE WITH SKC ACROSS THE VALLEY. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LEAN TOWARDS INCREASING MAX TEMPS ONE TO TWO DEG
TODAY. TONIGHT...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS WITH THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND SO DOES THE LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA. INTO TUESDAY TIGHT THICKNESS VALUES WITH
850 MB TEMPS ABOVE 20 DEG C WITH DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WEST FROM MCALLEN INTO RIO GRANDE CITY AND
ZAPATA. ACROSS THE EAST...TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S. DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN MIXING WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTENT
NEAR 850 MB LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS TUE NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TUESDAY WILL AMPLIFY WEDNESDAY
AND THAT SHOULD HINDER ANY POSSIBILITY OF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THURSDAY. THIS COULD ALLOW A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS IS MORE
ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLUTION AND SHOWS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY AS A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY AND ACROSS NORTHEAST
MEXICO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD RIDE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE
ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AS IT
HOLDS THE RIDE MORE FIRM AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT MORE THAN
TODAY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH TEMP GRADIENT SETTING UP ALONG THE
COAST. EXPECT SCEC CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE BAY. OVER
THE GULF...EXPECT MODERATE WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
AND MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  93  80  93 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          76  93  80  95 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            76  98  78  98 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              78 102  79 100 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      75 103  78 102 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  86  81  89 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/13




000
FXUS64 KBRO 031733
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1233 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LATEST SAT AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FEW TO SCT CLOUD
DECK AROUND 3000 FEET OVER THE NE SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH S TO SE WINDS STARTING TO GUST UP TO 22 KNOTS. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR PREVAILING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST...STRETCHING FROM NEAR KHRL TO KBRO AND POINTS EAST. MOST OF
THE REST OF THE VALLEY REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER
WILL BUILD LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO HEATING TAPPING DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TODAY...BUT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING...WITH PW VALUES ESTIMATED ABOVE 2.1 INCHES STILL. BUT
ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED SIGNIFICANTLY EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST...SO RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE
TEMPERATURES REASONABLY WELL TODAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 90S
ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 104 INLAND. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 105 TO 110 THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT...FURTHER LIMITING THE RAINFALL CHANCES INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT LESS...SO ADD
A DEGREE OR TWO TO HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TUESDAY WILL AMPLIFY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING
SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. A 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THURSDAY AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
INVERTED 500MB TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO SATURDAY...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY BETWEEN USUAL SUMMERTIME SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND
LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ON THE INLAND WATERWAYS TOMORROW.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUES NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/13




000
FXUS64 KBRO 031132
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
632 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST...STRETCHING FROM NEAR KHRL TO KBRO AND POINTS EAST. MOST OF
THE REST OF THE VALLEY REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER
WILL BUILD LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO HEATING TAPPING DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TODAY...BUT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING...WITH PW VALUES ESTIMATED ABOVE 2.1 INCHES STILL. BUT
ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED SIGNIFICANTLY EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST...SO RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE
TEMPERATURES REASONABLY WELL TODAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 90S
ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 104 INLAND. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 105 TO 110 THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT...FURTHER LIMITING THE RAINFALL CHANCES INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT LESS...SO ADD
A DEGREE OR TWO TO HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TUESDAY WILL AMPLIFY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING
SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. A 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THURSDAY AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
INVERTED 500MB TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO SATURDAY...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY BETWEEN USUAL SUMMERTIME SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND
LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ON THE INLAND WATERWAYS TOMORROW.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUES NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64




000
FXUS64 KBRO 031132
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
632 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST...STRETCHING FROM NEAR KHRL TO KBRO AND POINTS EAST. MOST OF
THE REST OF THE VALLEY REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER
WILL BUILD LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO HEATING TAPPING DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TODAY...BUT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING...WITH PW VALUES ESTIMATED ABOVE 2.1 INCHES STILL. BUT
ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED SIGNIFICANTLY EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST...SO RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE
TEMPERATURES REASONABLY WELL TODAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 90S
ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 104 INLAND. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 105 TO 110 THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT...FURTHER LIMITING THE RAINFALL CHANCES INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT LESS...SO ADD
A DEGREE OR TWO TO HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TUESDAY WILL AMPLIFY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING
SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. A 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THURSDAY AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
INVERTED 500MB TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO SATURDAY...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY BETWEEN USUAL SUMMERTIME SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND
LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ON THE INLAND WATERWAYS TOMORROW.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUES NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64





000
FXUS64 KBRO 030914
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
414 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING...WITH PW VALUES ESTIMATED ABOVE 2.1 INCHES STILL. BUT
ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED SIGNIFICANTLY EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST...SO RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE
TEMPERATURES REASONABLY WELL TODAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 90S
ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 104 INLAND. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 105 TO 110 THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT...FURTHER LIMITING THE RAINFALL CHANCES INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT LESS...SO ADD
A DEGREE OR TWO TO HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TUESDAY WILL AMPLIFY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING
SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. A 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THURSDAY AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
INVERTED 500MB TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO SATURDAY...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY BETWEEN USUAL SUMMERTIME SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND
LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ON THE INLAND WATERWAYS TOMORROW.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUES NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  95  80  93  81 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          94  80  93  81 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            97  78  98  79 /  20  10  10  10
MCALLEN             102  79 102  80 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  79 102  79 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  82  86  82 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/61





000
FXUS64 KBRO 030914
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
414 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING...WITH PW VALUES ESTIMATED ABOVE 2.1 INCHES STILL. BUT
ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED SIGNIFICANTLY EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST...SO RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE
TEMPERATURES REASONABLY WELL TODAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 90S
ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 104 INLAND. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 105 TO 110 THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT...FURTHER LIMITING THE RAINFALL CHANCES INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT LESS...SO ADD
A DEGREE OR TWO TO HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TUESDAY WILL AMPLIFY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING
SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. A 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THURSDAY AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
INVERTED 500MB TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO SATURDAY...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY BETWEEN USUAL SUMMERTIME SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND
LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ON THE INLAND WATERWAYS TOMORROW.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUES NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  95  80  93  81 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          94  80  93  81 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            97  78  98  79 /  20  10  10  10
MCALLEN             102  79 102  80 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  79 102  79 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  82  86  82 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/61




000
FXUS64 KBRO 030539 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1239 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT BUILD BEYOND SCT BEFORE LIFTING ABOVE 3000.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE BRIEF AND LIMITED MORE TOWARD THE COAST
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
A FEW LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING.
EXCEPT FOR SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN MONDAY DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. BUT WILL
NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME AS THE OVERALL COVERAGE MAY BE TOO LOW.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY MID-MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY DETECTED SOME ISOLATED CONV THAT FIRED UP
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER RECENT IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIED OUT OR IS LINGERING SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE OVER
NE MEXICO. A POCKET OF 500 MB VORTICITY WILL DRIFT WEST ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE 12Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST ATMS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A
PWAT OF 2.25 INCHES. HOWEVER THE MORNING MUCAPE VALUE WAS ONLY
1449 J/KG. THE MORE LIMITED MUCAPE APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
REASON THAT THE AFTERNOON CONV WAS NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. THE
BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDED BY THE AREA OF 500 MB VORTICITY
WILL COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED PWAT VALUES TO ALLOW FOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONV THROUGH LATE TOMORROW. THE MET AND MAV
POPS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT LOOK PRETTY REASONABLE WITH BOTH MODEL
SETS MAINTAINING SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS
THE ODD MODEL OUT SHOWING ONLY SOME 5 TO 10 % POPS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SO WILL OPT FOR A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET
NUMBERS. SINCE THE MAV AND MET POPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WILL ALSO GO CLOSE TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THESE TWO MODEL SETS FOR
THE SHORT TERM TEMPS AS THE DRIER ECMWF GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO
WARM THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILL IN ALOFT...SO THAT COMBINED
WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD MAKE RAIN SCARCE AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR...REACHING 98 TO 106 ACTUAL
DEGREES...WHILE HEAT INDEX READING REACH 106 TO 111. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW WINDS AND SEAS. THE PGF
WILL THEN START TO STRENGTHEN ON MON AND MON NIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS
WILL BUILD UP THE WINDS AND SEAS SOMEWHAT TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT POSSIBLE RESULTING IN SOME POTENTIAL SCEC CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER NO SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY IN THE LAGUNA. CHOP ON THE LAGUNA WILL
BUILD TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WILL START AROUND 2 FEET AND BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64





000
FXUS64 KBRO 030539 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1239 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT BUILD BEYOND SCT BEFORE LIFTING ABOVE 3000.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE BRIEF AND LIMITED MORE TOWARD THE COAST
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
A FEW LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING.
EXCEPT FOR SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN MONDAY DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. BUT WILL
NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME AS THE OVERALL COVERAGE MAY BE TOO LOW.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY MID-MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY DETECTED SOME ISOLATED CONV THAT FIRED UP
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER RECENT IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIED OUT OR IS LINGERING SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE OVER
NE MEXICO. A POCKET OF 500 MB VORTICITY WILL DRIFT WEST ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE 12Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST ATMS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A
PWAT OF 2.25 INCHES. HOWEVER THE MORNING MUCAPE VALUE WAS ONLY
1449 J/KG. THE MORE LIMITED MUCAPE APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
REASON THAT THE AFTERNOON CONV WAS NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. THE
BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDED BY THE AREA OF 500 MB VORTICITY
WILL COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED PWAT VALUES TO ALLOW FOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONV THROUGH LATE TOMORROW. THE MET AND MAV
POPS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT LOOK PRETTY REASONABLE WITH BOTH MODEL
SETS MAINTAINING SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS
THE ODD MODEL OUT SHOWING ONLY SOME 5 TO 10 % POPS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SO WILL OPT FOR A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET
NUMBERS. SINCE THE MAV AND MET POPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WILL ALSO GO CLOSE TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THESE TWO MODEL SETS FOR
THE SHORT TERM TEMPS AS THE DRIER ECMWF GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO
WARM THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILL IN ALOFT...SO THAT COMBINED
WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD MAKE RAIN SCARCE AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR...REACHING 98 TO 106 ACTUAL
DEGREES...WHILE HEAT INDEX READING REACH 106 TO 111. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW WINDS AND SEAS. THE PGF
WILL THEN START TO STRENGTHEN ON MON AND MON NIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS
WILL BUILD UP THE WINDS AND SEAS SOMEWHAT TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT POSSIBLE RESULTING IN SOME POTENTIAL SCEC CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER NO SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY IN THE LAGUNA. CHOP ON THE LAGUNA WILL
BUILD TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WILL START AROUND 2 FEET AND BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64




000
FXUS64 KBRO 030539 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1239 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT BUILD BEYOND SCT BEFORE LIFTING ABOVE 3000.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE BRIEF AND LIMITED MORE TOWARD THE COAST
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
A FEW LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING.
EXCEPT FOR SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN MONDAY DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. BUT WILL
NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME AS THE OVERALL COVERAGE MAY BE TOO LOW.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY MID-MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY DETECTED SOME ISOLATED CONV THAT FIRED UP
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER RECENT IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIED OUT OR IS LINGERING SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE OVER
NE MEXICO. A POCKET OF 500 MB VORTICITY WILL DRIFT WEST ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE 12Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST ATMS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A
PWAT OF 2.25 INCHES. HOWEVER THE MORNING MUCAPE VALUE WAS ONLY
1449 J/KG. THE MORE LIMITED MUCAPE APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
REASON THAT THE AFTERNOON CONV WAS NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. THE
BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDED BY THE AREA OF 500 MB VORTICITY
WILL COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED PWAT VALUES TO ALLOW FOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONV THROUGH LATE TOMORROW. THE MET AND MAV
POPS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT LOOK PRETTY REASONABLE WITH BOTH MODEL
SETS MAINTAINING SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS
THE ODD MODEL OUT SHOWING ONLY SOME 5 TO 10 % POPS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SO WILL OPT FOR A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET
NUMBERS. SINCE THE MAV AND MET POPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WILL ALSO GO CLOSE TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THESE TWO MODEL SETS FOR
THE SHORT TERM TEMPS AS THE DRIER ECMWF GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO
WARM THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILL IN ALOFT...SO THAT COMBINED
WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD MAKE RAIN SCARCE AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR...REACHING 98 TO 106 ACTUAL
DEGREES...WHILE HEAT INDEX READING REACH 106 TO 111. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW WINDS AND SEAS. THE PGF
WILL THEN START TO STRENGTHEN ON MON AND MON NIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS
WILL BUILD UP THE WINDS AND SEAS SOMEWHAT TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT POSSIBLE RESULTING IN SOME POTENTIAL SCEC CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER NO SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY IN THE LAGUNA. CHOP ON THE LAGUNA WILL
BUILD TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WILL START AROUND 2 FEET AND BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64





000
FXUS64 KBRO 030539 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1239 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT BUILD BEYOND SCT BEFORE LIFTING ABOVE 3000.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE BRIEF AND LIMITED MORE TOWARD THE COAST
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
A FEW LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING.
EXCEPT FOR SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN MONDAY DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. BUT WILL
NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME AS THE OVERALL COVERAGE MAY BE TOO LOW.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY MID-MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY DETECTED SOME ISOLATED CONV THAT FIRED UP
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER RECENT IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIED OUT OR IS LINGERING SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE OVER
NE MEXICO. A POCKET OF 500 MB VORTICITY WILL DRIFT WEST ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE 12Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST ATMS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A
PWAT OF 2.25 INCHES. HOWEVER THE MORNING MUCAPE VALUE WAS ONLY
1449 J/KG. THE MORE LIMITED MUCAPE APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
REASON THAT THE AFTERNOON CONV WAS NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. THE
BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDED BY THE AREA OF 500 MB VORTICITY
WILL COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED PWAT VALUES TO ALLOW FOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONV THROUGH LATE TOMORROW. THE MET AND MAV
POPS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT LOOK PRETTY REASONABLE WITH BOTH MODEL
SETS MAINTAINING SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS
THE ODD MODEL OUT SHOWING ONLY SOME 5 TO 10 % POPS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SO WILL OPT FOR A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET
NUMBERS. SINCE THE MAV AND MET POPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WILL ALSO GO CLOSE TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THESE TWO MODEL SETS FOR
THE SHORT TERM TEMPS AS THE DRIER ECMWF GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO
WARM THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILL IN ALOFT...SO THAT COMBINED
WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD MAKE RAIN SCARCE AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR...REACHING 98 TO 106 ACTUAL
DEGREES...WHILE HEAT INDEX READING REACH 106 TO 111. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW WINDS AND SEAS. THE PGF
WILL THEN START TO STRENGTHEN ON MON AND MON NIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS
WILL BUILD UP THE WINDS AND SEAS SOMEWHAT TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT POSSIBLE RESULTING IN SOME POTENTIAL SCEC CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER NO SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY IN THE LAGUNA. CHOP ON THE LAGUNA WILL
BUILD TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WILL START AROUND 2 FEET AND BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64




000
FXUS64 KBRO 022350 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
650 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
A FEW LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING.
EXCEPT FOR SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN MONDAY DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. BUT WILL
NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME AS THE OVERALL COVERAGE MAY BE TOO LOW.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY MID-MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY DETECTED SOME ISOLATED CONV THAT FIRED UP
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER RECENT IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIED OUT OR IS LINGERING SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE OVER
NE MEXICO. A POCKET OF 500 MB VORTICITY WILL DRIFT WEST ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE 12Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST ATMS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A
PWAT OF 2.25 INCHES. HOWEVER THE MORNING MUCAPE VALUE WAS ONLY
1449 J/KG. THE MORE LIMITED MUCAPE APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
REASON THAT THE AFTERNOON CONV WAS NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. THE
BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDED BY THE AREA OF 500 MB VORTICITY
WILL COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED PWAT VALUES TO ALLOW FOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONV THROUGH LATE TOMORROW. THE MET AND MAV
POPS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT LOOK PRETTY REASONABLE WITH BOTH MODEL
SETS MAINTAINING SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS
THE ODD MODEL OUT SHOWING ONLY SOME 5 TO 10 % POPS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SO WILL OPT FOR A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET
NUMBERS. SINCE THE MAV AND MET POPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WILL ALSO GO CLOSE TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THESE TWO MODEL SETS FOR
THE SHORT TERM TEMPS AS THE DRIER ECMWF GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO
WARM THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILL IN ALOFT...SO THAT COMBINED
WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD MAKE RAIN SCARCE AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR...REACHING 98 TO 106 ACTUAL
DEGREES...WHILE HEAT INDEX READING REACH 106 TO 111. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW WINDS AND SEAS. THE PGF
WILL THEN START TO STRENGTHEN ON MON AND MON NIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS
WILL BUILD UP THE WINDS AND SEAS SOMEWHAT TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT POSSIBLE RESULTING IN SOME POTENTIAL SCEC CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER NO SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY IN THE LAGUNA. CHOP ON THE LAGUNA WILL
BUILD TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WILL START AROUND 2 FEET AND BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 022350 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
650 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
A FEW LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING.
EXCEPT FOR SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN MONDAY DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. BUT WILL
NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME AS THE OVERALL COVERAGE MAY BE TOO LOW.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY MID-MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY DETECTED SOME ISOLATED CONV THAT FIRED UP
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER RECENT IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIED OUT OR IS LINGERING SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE OVER
NE MEXICO. A POCKET OF 500 MB VORTICITY WILL DRIFT WEST ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE 12Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST ATMS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A
PWAT OF 2.25 INCHES. HOWEVER THE MORNING MUCAPE VALUE WAS ONLY
1449 J/KG. THE MORE LIMITED MUCAPE APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
REASON THAT THE AFTERNOON CONV WAS NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. THE
BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDED BY THE AREA OF 500 MB VORTICITY
WILL COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED PWAT VALUES TO ALLOW FOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONV THROUGH LATE TOMORROW. THE MET AND MAV
POPS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT LOOK PRETTY REASONABLE WITH BOTH MODEL
SETS MAINTAINING SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS
THE ODD MODEL OUT SHOWING ONLY SOME 5 TO 10 % POPS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SO WILL OPT FOR A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET
NUMBERS. SINCE THE MAV AND MET POPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WILL ALSO GO CLOSE TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THESE TWO MODEL SETS FOR
THE SHORT TERM TEMPS AS THE DRIER ECMWF GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO
WARM THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILL IN ALOFT...SO THAT COMBINED
WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD MAKE RAIN SCARCE AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR...REACHING 98 TO 106 ACTUAL
DEGREES...WHILE HEAT INDEX READING REACH 106 TO 111. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW WINDS AND SEAS. THE PGF
WILL THEN START TO STRENGTHEN ON MON AND MON NIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS
WILL BUILD UP THE WINDS AND SEAS SOMEWHAT TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT POSSIBLE RESULTING IN SOME POTENTIAL SCEC CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER NO SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY IN THE LAGUNA. CHOP ON THE LAGUNA WILL
BUILD TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WILL START AROUND 2 FEET AND BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 022350 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
650 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
A FEW LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING.
EXCEPT FOR SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN MONDAY DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. BUT WILL
NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME AS THE OVERALL COVERAGE MAY BE TOO LOW.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY MID-MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY DETECTED SOME ISOLATED CONV THAT FIRED UP
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER RECENT IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIED OUT OR IS LINGERING SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE OVER
NE MEXICO. A POCKET OF 500 MB VORTICITY WILL DRIFT WEST ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE 12Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST ATMS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A
PWAT OF 2.25 INCHES. HOWEVER THE MORNING MUCAPE VALUE WAS ONLY
1449 J/KG. THE MORE LIMITED MUCAPE APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
REASON THAT THE AFTERNOON CONV WAS NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. THE
BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDED BY THE AREA OF 500 MB VORTICITY
WILL COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED PWAT VALUES TO ALLOW FOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONV THROUGH LATE TOMORROW. THE MET AND MAV
POPS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT LOOK PRETTY REASONABLE WITH BOTH MODEL
SETS MAINTAINING SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS
THE ODD MODEL OUT SHOWING ONLY SOME 5 TO 10 % POPS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SO WILL OPT FOR A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET
NUMBERS. SINCE THE MAV AND MET POPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WILL ALSO GO CLOSE TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THESE TWO MODEL SETS FOR
THE SHORT TERM TEMPS AS THE DRIER ECMWF GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO
WARM THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILL IN ALOFT...SO THAT COMBINED
WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD MAKE RAIN SCARCE AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR...REACHING 98 TO 106 ACTUAL
DEGREES...WHILE HEAT INDEX READING REACH 106 TO 111. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW WINDS AND SEAS. THE PGF
WILL THEN START TO STRENGTHEN ON MON AND MON NIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS
WILL BUILD UP THE WINDS AND SEAS SOMEWHAT TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT POSSIBLE RESULTING IN SOME POTENTIAL SCEC CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER NO SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY IN THE LAGUNA. CHOP ON THE LAGUNA WILL
BUILD TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WILL START AROUND 2 FEET AND BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 022350 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
650 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
A FEW LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING.
EXCEPT FOR SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN MONDAY DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. BUT WILL
NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME AS THE OVERALL COVERAGE MAY BE TOO LOW.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY MID-MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY DETECTED SOME ISOLATED CONV THAT FIRED UP
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER RECENT IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIED OUT OR IS LINGERING SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE OVER
NE MEXICO. A POCKET OF 500 MB VORTICITY WILL DRIFT WEST ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE 12Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST ATMS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A
PWAT OF 2.25 INCHES. HOWEVER THE MORNING MUCAPE VALUE WAS ONLY
1449 J/KG. THE MORE LIMITED MUCAPE APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
REASON THAT THE AFTERNOON CONV WAS NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. THE
BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDED BY THE AREA OF 500 MB VORTICITY
WILL COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED PWAT VALUES TO ALLOW FOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONV THROUGH LATE TOMORROW. THE MET AND MAV
POPS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT LOOK PRETTY REASONABLE WITH BOTH MODEL
SETS MAINTAINING SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS
THE ODD MODEL OUT SHOWING ONLY SOME 5 TO 10 % POPS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SO WILL OPT FOR A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET
NUMBERS. SINCE THE MAV AND MET POPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WILL ALSO GO CLOSE TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THESE TWO MODEL SETS FOR
THE SHORT TERM TEMPS AS THE DRIER ECMWF GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO
WARM THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILL IN ALOFT...SO THAT COMBINED
WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD MAKE RAIN SCARCE AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR...REACHING 98 TO 106 ACTUAL
DEGREES...WHILE HEAT INDEX READING REACH 106 TO 111. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW WINDS AND SEAS. THE PGF
WILL THEN START TO STRENGTHEN ON MON AND MON NIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS
WILL BUILD UP THE WINDS AND SEAS SOMEWHAT TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT POSSIBLE RESULTING IN SOME POTENTIAL SCEC CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER NO SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY IN THE LAGUNA. CHOP ON THE LAGUNA WILL
BUILD TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WILL START AROUND 2 FEET AND BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 021944
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY DETECTED SOME ISOLATED CONV THAT FIRED UP
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER RECENT IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIED OUT OR IS LINGERING SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE OVER
NE MEXICO. A POCKET OF 500 MB VORTICITY WILL DRIFT WEST ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE 12Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST ATMS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A
PWAT OF 2.25 INCHES. HOWEVER THE MORNING MUCAPE VALUE WAS ONLY
1449 J/KG. THE MORE LIMITED MUCAPE APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
REASON THAT THE AFTERNOON CONV WAS NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. THE
BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDED BY THE AREA OF 500 MB VORTICITY
WILL COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED PWAT VALUES TO ALLOW FOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONV THROUGH LATE TOMORROW. THE MET AND MAV
POPS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT LOOK PRETTY REASONABLE WITH BOTH MODEL
SETS MAINTAINING SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS
THE ODD MODEL OUT SHOWING ONLY SOME 5 TO 10 % POPS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SO WILL OPT FOR A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET
NUMBERS. SINCE THE MAV AND MET POPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WILL ALSO GO CLOSE TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THESE TWO MODEL SETS FOR
THE SHORT TERM TEMPS AS THE DRIER ECMWF GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO
WARM THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILL IN ALOFT...SO THAT COMBINED
WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD MAKE RAIN SCARCE AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR...REACHING 98 TO 106 ACTUAL
DEGREES...WHILE HEAT INDEX READING REACH 106 TO 111. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW WINDS AND SEAS. THE PGF
WILL THEN START TO STRENGTHEN ON MON AND MON NIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS
WILL BUILD UP THE WINDS AND SEAS SOMEWHAT TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT POSSIBLE RESULTING IN SOME POTENTIAL SCEC CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER NO SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY IN THE LAGUNA. CHOP ON THE LAGUNA WILL
BUILD TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WILL START AROUND 2 FEET AND BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  94  80  94 /  10  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  95  79  95 /  10  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            76  98  78  98 /  10  20  10  10
MCALLEN              78 100  80 101 /  20  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      77 101  78 102 /  20  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  89  81  90 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60/13





000
FXUS64 KBRO 021944
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY DETECTED SOME ISOLATED CONV THAT FIRED UP
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER RECENT IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIED OUT OR IS LINGERING SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE OVER
NE MEXICO. A POCKET OF 500 MB VORTICITY WILL DRIFT WEST ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE 12Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST ATMS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A
PWAT OF 2.25 INCHES. HOWEVER THE MORNING MUCAPE VALUE WAS ONLY
1449 J/KG. THE MORE LIMITED MUCAPE APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
REASON THAT THE AFTERNOON CONV WAS NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. THE
BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDED BY THE AREA OF 500 MB VORTICITY
WILL COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED PWAT VALUES TO ALLOW FOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONV THROUGH LATE TOMORROW. THE MET AND MAV
POPS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT LOOK PRETTY REASONABLE WITH BOTH MODEL
SETS MAINTAINING SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS
THE ODD MODEL OUT SHOWING ONLY SOME 5 TO 10 % POPS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SO WILL OPT FOR A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET
NUMBERS. SINCE THE MAV AND MET POPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WILL ALSO GO CLOSE TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THESE TWO MODEL SETS FOR
THE SHORT TERM TEMPS AS THE DRIER ECMWF GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO
WARM THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILL IN ALOFT...SO THAT COMBINED
WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD MAKE RAIN SCARCE AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR...REACHING 98 TO 106 ACTUAL
DEGREES...WHILE HEAT INDEX READING REACH 106 TO 111. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW WINDS AND SEAS. THE PGF
WILL THEN START TO STRENGTHEN ON MON AND MON NIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS
WILL BUILD UP THE WINDS AND SEAS SOMEWHAT TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT POSSIBLE RESULTING IN SOME POTENTIAL SCEC CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER NO SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY IN THE LAGUNA. CHOP ON THE LAGUNA WILL
BUILD TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WILL START AROUND 2 FEET AND BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  94  80  94 /  10  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  95  79  95 /  10  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            76  98  78  98 /  10  20  10  10
MCALLEN              78 100  80 101 /  20  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      77 101  78 102 /  20  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  89  81  90 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60/13




000
FXUS64 KBRO 021944
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY DETECTED SOME ISOLATED CONV THAT FIRED UP
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER RECENT IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIED OUT OR IS LINGERING SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE OVER
NE MEXICO. A POCKET OF 500 MB VORTICITY WILL DRIFT WEST ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE 12Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST ATMS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A
PWAT OF 2.25 INCHES. HOWEVER THE MORNING MUCAPE VALUE WAS ONLY
1449 J/KG. THE MORE LIMITED MUCAPE APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
REASON THAT THE AFTERNOON CONV WAS NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. THE
BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDED BY THE AREA OF 500 MB VORTICITY
WILL COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED PWAT VALUES TO ALLOW FOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONV THROUGH LATE TOMORROW. THE MET AND MAV
POPS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT LOOK PRETTY REASONABLE WITH BOTH MODEL
SETS MAINTAINING SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS
THE ODD MODEL OUT SHOWING ONLY SOME 5 TO 10 % POPS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SO WILL OPT FOR A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET
NUMBERS. SINCE THE MAV AND MET POPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WILL ALSO GO CLOSE TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THESE TWO MODEL SETS FOR
THE SHORT TERM TEMPS AS THE DRIER ECMWF GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO
WARM THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILL IN ALOFT...SO THAT COMBINED
WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD MAKE RAIN SCARCE AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR...REACHING 98 TO 106 ACTUAL
DEGREES...WHILE HEAT INDEX READING REACH 106 TO 111. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW WINDS AND SEAS. THE PGF
WILL THEN START TO STRENGTHEN ON MON AND MON NIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS
WILL BUILD UP THE WINDS AND SEAS SOMEWHAT TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT POSSIBLE RESULTING IN SOME POTENTIAL SCEC CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER NO SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY IN THE LAGUNA. CHOP ON THE LAGUNA WILL
BUILD TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WILL START AROUND 2 FEET AND BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  94  80  94 /  10  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  95  79  95 /  10  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            76  98  78  98 /  10  20  10  10
MCALLEN              78 100  80 101 /  20  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      77 101  78 102 /  20  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  89  81  90 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60/13





000
FXUS64 KBRO 021944
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY DETECTED SOME ISOLATED CONV THAT FIRED UP
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER RECENT IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIED OUT OR IS LINGERING SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE OVER
NE MEXICO. A POCKET OF 500 MB VORTICITY WILL DRIFT WEST ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE 12Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST ATMS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A
PWAT OF 2.25 INCHES. HOWEVER THE MORNING MUCAPE VALUE WAS ONLY
1449 J/KG. THE MORE LIMITED MUCAPE APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
REASON THAT THE AFTERNOON CONV WAS NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. THE
BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDED BY THE AREA OF 500 MB VORTICITY
WILL COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED PWAT VALUES TO ALLOW FOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONV THROUGH LATE TOMORROW. THE MET AND MAV
POPS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT LOOK PRETTY REASONABLE WITH BOTH MODEL
SETS MAINTAINING SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS
THE ODD MODEL OUT SHOWING ONLY SOME 5 TO 10 % POPS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SO WILL OPT FOR A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET
NUMBERS. SINCE THE MAV AND MET POPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WILL ALSO GO CLOSE TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THESE TWO MODEL SETS FOR
THE SHORT TERM TEMPS AS THE DRIER ECMWF GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO
WARM THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILL IN ALOFT...SO THAT COMBINED
WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD MAKE RAIN SCARCE AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR...REACHING 98 TO 106 ACTUAL
DEGREES...WHILE HEAT INDEX READING REACH 106 TO 111. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW WINDS AND SEAS. THE PGF
WILL THEN START TO STRENGTHEN ON MON AND MON NIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS
WILL BUILD UP THE WINDS AND SEAS SOMEWHAT TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT POSSIBLE RESULTING IN SOME POTENTIAL SCEC CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER NO SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY IN THE LAGUNA. CHOP ON THE LAGUNA WILL
BUILD TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WILL START AROUND 2 FEET AND BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  94  80  94 /  10  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  95  79  95 /  10  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            76  98  78  98 /  10  20  10  10
MCALLEN              78 100  80 101 /  20  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      77 101  78 102 /  20  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  89  81  90 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60/13




000
FXUS64 KBRO 021747 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...KBRO RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT
SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO BREAK OUT OVER SOUTHERN CAMERON
COUNTY AROUND THE BRO AIRPORT. IN THE WEAK SURFACE WIND REGIME
EVIDENT OVER THE AREA SEVERAL WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE
BEEN GENERATED FROM THESE SHOWERS. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THESE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY HELP INTIATE SOME MORE CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE RGV AIRPORTS. SO WILL INCLUDE A
MENTION OF REDUCTIONS OF VSBYS AND CEILINGS DUE TO THE CONV IN THE
EARLY PORTIONS OF ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS. WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING LATER TODAY THE CONV POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH
LEAVING BEHIND MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLD DECKS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. ISOLD CONV
MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME IN THE CURRENT TAF
SET AS THE OVERALL COVERAGE MAY BE TOO LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4200FT AT
KHRL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT EVEN AS LOW TO MID LEVEL REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST AND A WEAK 500MB INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHEAST MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS THIS MORNING TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AS WEAK
500MB INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF MOVES INLAND ACROSS
NORTHEAST MEXICO. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND
DIURNAL HEATING PROVIDES INSTABILITY. THE QUESTION IS IF THE
SEABREEZE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY BUT WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP MOISTURE IS PUSHED WELL TO THE
NORTH...WITH A DRIER DESERT TYPE ATMOSPHERE ESTABLISHING ALOFT.
THE ONLY MOISTURE NOTED IS RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DRIER AIR DOMINATING THE DAYTIME HOURS
EACH DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR...REACHING 98 TO 106 ACTUAL
DEGREES...WHILE HEAT INDEX READING REACH 106 TO 111.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS TEMPERATURES INLAND SOAR WELL ABOVE 100
DEGREES. WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAGUNA MADRE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR THE GULF...BUT WILL BE
HELD LOWER BY MARINE STABILITY. CHOP ON THE LAGUNA WILL BUILD TO
MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF WILL START AROUND 2 FEET AND BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET
BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  94  80  95 /  10  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  95  79  96 /  10  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            76  98  78 100 /  10  20  10  10
MCALLEN              78 100  80 102 /  10  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      77 101  78 103 /  10  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  89  81  91 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...13




000
FXUS64 KBRO 021747 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...KBRO RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT
SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO BREAK OUT OVER SOUTHERN CAMERON
COUNTY AROUND THE BRO AIRPORT. IN THE WEAK SURFACE WIND REGIME
EVIDENT OVER THE AREA SEVERAL WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE
BEEN GENERATED FROM THESE SHOWERS. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THESE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY HELP INTIATE SOME MORE CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE RGV AIRPORTS. SO WILL INCLUDE A
MENTION OF REDUCTIONS OF VSBYS AND CEILINGS DUE TO THE CONV IN THE
EARLY PORTIONS OF ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS. WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING LATER TODAY THE CONV POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH
LEAVING BEHIND MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLD DECKS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. ISOLD CONV
MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME IN THE CURRENT TAF
SET AS THE OVERALL COVERAGE MAY BE TOO LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4200FT AT
KHRL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT EVEN AS LOW TO MID LEVEL REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST AND A WEAK 500MB INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHEAST MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS THIS MORNING TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AS WEAK
500MB INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF MOVES INLAND ACROSS
NORTHEAST MEXICO. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND
DIURNAL HEATING PROVIDES INSTABILITY. THE QUESTION IS IF THE
SEABREEZE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY BUT WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP MOISTURE IS PUSHED WELL TO THE
NORTH...WITH A DRIER DESERT TYPE ATMOSPHERE ESTABLISHING ALOFT.
THE ONLY MOISTURE NOTED IS RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DRIER AIR DOMINATING THE DAYTIME HOURS
EACH DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR...REACHING 98 TO 106 ACTUAL
DEGREES...WHILE HEAT INDEX READING REACH 106 TO 111.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS TEMPERATURES INLAND SOAR WELL ABOVE 100
DEGREES. WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAGUNA MADRE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR THE GULF...BUT WILL BE
HELD LOWER BY MARINE STABILITY. CHOP ON THE LAGUNA WILL BUILD TO
MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF WILL START AROUND 2 FEET AND BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET
BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  94  80  95 /  10  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  95  79  96 /  10  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            76  98  78 100 /  10  20  10  10
MCALLEN              78 100  80 102 /  10  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      77 101  78 103 /  10  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  89  81  91 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...13





000
FXUS64 KBRO 021140 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
640 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4200FT AT
KHRL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT EVEN AS LOW TO MID LEVEL REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST AND A WEAK 500MB INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHEAST MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS THIS MORNING TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AS WEAK
500MB INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF MOVES INLAND ACROSS
NORTHEAST MEXICO. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND
DIURNAL HEATING PROVIDES INSTABILITY. THE QUESTION IS IF THE
SEABREEZE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY BUT WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP MOISTURE IS PUSHED WELL TO THE
NORTH...WITH A DRIER DESERT TYPE ATMOSPHERE ESTABLISHING ALOFT.
THE ONLY MOISTURE NOTED IS RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DRIER AIR DOMINATING THE DAYTIME HOURS
EACH DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR...REACHING 98 TO 106 ACTUAL
DEGREES...WHILE HEAT INDEX READING REACH 106 TO 111.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS TEMPERATURES INLAND SOAR WELL ABOVE 100
DEGREES. WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAGUNA MADRE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR THE GULF...BUT WILL BE
HELD LOWER BY MARINE STABILITY. CHOP ON THE LAGUNA WILL BUILD TO
MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF WILL START AROUND 2 FEET AND BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET
BY LATE WEEK.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/64/BIRCHFIELD




000
FXUS64 KBRO 021140 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
640 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4200FT AT
KHRL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT EVEN AS LOW TO MID LEVEL REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST AND A WEAK 500MB INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHEAST MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS THIS MORNING TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AS WEAK
500MB INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF MOVES INLAND ACROSS
NORTHEAST MEXICO. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND
DIURNAL HEATING PROVIDES INSTABILITY. THE QUESTION IS IF THE
SEABREEZE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY BUT WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP MOISTURE IS PUSHED WELL TO THE
NORTH...WITH A DRIER DESERT TYPE ATMOSPHERE ESTABLISHING ALOFT.
THE ONLY MOISTURE NOTED IS RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DRIER AIR DOMINATING THE DAYTIME HOURS
EACH DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR...REACHING 98 TO 106 ACTUAL
DEGREES...WHILE HEAT INDEX READING REACH 106 TO 111.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS TEMPERATURES INLAND SOAR WELL ABOVE 100
DEGREES. WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAGUNA MADRE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR THE GULF...BUT WILL BE
HELD LOWER BY MARINE STABILITY. CHOP ON THE LAGUNA WILL BUILD TO
MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF WILL START AROUND 2 FEET AND BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET
BY LATE WEEK.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/64/BIRCHFIELD





000
FXUS64 KBRO 020859
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
359 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AS WEAK
500MB INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF MOVES INLAND ACROSS
NORTHEAST MEXICO. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND
DIURNAL HEATING PROVIDES INSTABILITY. THE QUESTION IS IF THE
SEABREEZE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY BUT WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP MOISTURE IS PUSHED WELL TO THE
NORTH...WITH A DRIER DESERT TYPE ATMOSPHERE ESTABLISHING ALOFT.
THE ONLY MOISTURE NOTED IS RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DRIER AIR DOMINATING THE DAYTIME HOURS
EACH DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR...REACHING 98 TO 106 ACTUAL
DEGREES...WHILE HEAT INDEX READING REACH 106 TO 111.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS TEMPERATURES INLAND SOAR WELL ABOVE 100
DEGREES. WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAGUNA MADRE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR THE GULF...BUT WILL BE
HELD LOWER BY MARINE STABILITY. CHOP ON THE LAGUNA WILL BUILD TO
MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF WILL START AROUND 2 FEET AND BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET
BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  92  78  94  80 /  20  10  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          95  78  95  79 /  30  10  20  10
HARLINGEN            96  76  98  78 /  20  10  20  10
MCALLEN              99  78 100  80 /  20  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     100  77 101  78 /  20  10  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  80  89  81 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/64




000
FXUS64 KBRO 020541 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1241 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS SUNDAY AND MOVE INLAND AS A WEAK 500MB
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO SUN AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF LOCAL AERODROMES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF LOCAL AERODROMES 18Z
THROUGH 24Z SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...DISSIPATING SHOWERS APPROACHING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND
HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING KBRO THROUGH 9 PM. NO THUNDER
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMALL AREA OF RAIN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWEST
AT AROUND 15 MPH. CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF RAIN AND
OTHER CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ARE IN THE VFR RANGE
WITH NO MVFR OR IFR EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PROBABILITIES
FROM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW
PROBABILITIES OF ANY AVIATION IMPACTS FROM LOW CLOUDS OR LOW
VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT
BECOMING SOUTHEAST LIGHT TO MODERATE SUNDAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SATELLITE IMAGES THIS
AFTERNOON INDICATE MOSTLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WITH A
SCATTERED CU FIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. THE LATEST BRO RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...20 TO
60 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF PADRE ISLAND. THE WEAK 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE
12Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.97 INCHES. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR FARTHER INLAND. THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS
MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF THE
RIO GRANDE RIVER NOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE REDEVELOPING OVER THE
GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE
LONGER RANGE PERIOD WILL BE THE HEAT POTENTIAL ACROSS THE RGV. THE
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH RESTRENGTHEN THE 500 MB RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX ONCE AGAIN
YIELDING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH DAY 7. THE DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE VALUES REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD. ONLY A VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER MAY
PERSIST ON THROUGH DAY 7 WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL CLD
COVER TO PERSIST ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT NEAR
ZERO RAIN CHANCES TO PREVAIL.

THE GFS MEX AND ECMWF MODEL HIGH/LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT. SO WILL GO WITH A GENERAL 50/50 BLEND
OF THE TWO MODEL SETS FOR TEMPS. THE GFS MEX POPS STILL TRY TO
TREND TOWARDS SOME SLGT CHC POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD. I BELIEVE
THAT THIS IS MODEL TREND IS BEING SKEWED HIGH DUE TO CLIMO
INFLUENCES. SO WILL GO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF POPS IN THE LONG TERM.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING
SEAS OF 1 FOOT WITH NORTH WINDS NEAR 4 KNOTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS NOW THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PGF WILL START OF NEXT WEEK FAIRLY
WEAK ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY LOW WINDS AND SEAS TO PREVAIL. THE PGF
WILL THEN START TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT STARTING LATE TUES/WED AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS MAY
PUSH THE WINDS AND SEAS UP LATE IN THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD TO
POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME SCEC CONDITIONS WED/THURS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/64





000
FXUS64 KBRO 020541 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1241 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS SUNDAY AND MOVE INLAND AS A WEAK 500MB
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO SUN AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF LOCAL AERODROMES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF LOCAL AERODROMES 18Z
THROUGH 24Z SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...DISSIPATING SHOWERS APPROACHING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND
HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING KBRO THROUGH 9 PM. NO THUNDER
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMALL AREA OF RAIN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWEST
AT AROUND 15 MPH. CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF RAIN AND
OTHER CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ARE IN THE VFR RANGE
WITH NO MVFR OR IFR EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PROBABILITIES
FROM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW
PROBABILITIES OF ANY AVIATION IMPACTS FROM LOW CLOUDS OR LOW
VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT
BECOMING SOUTHEAST LIGHT TO MODERATE SUNDAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SATELLITE IMAGES THIS
AFTERNOON INDICATE MOSTLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WITH A
SCATTERED CU FIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. THE LATEST BRO RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...20 TO
60 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF PADRE ISLAND. THE WEAK 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE
12Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.97 INCHES. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR FARTHER INLAND. THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS
MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF THE
RIO GRANDE RIVER NOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE REDEVELOPING OVER THE
GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE
LONGER RANGE PERIOD WILL BE THE HEAT POTENTIAL ACROSS THE RGV. THE
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH RESTRENGTHEN THE 500 MB RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX ONCE AGAIN
YIELDING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH DAY 7. THE DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE VALUES REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD. ONLY A VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER MAY
PERSIST ON THROUGH DAY 7 WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL CLD
COVER TO PERSIST ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT NEAR
ZERO RAIN CHANCES TO PREVAIL.

THE GFS MEX AND ECMWF MODEL HIGH/LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT. SO WILL GO WITH A GENERAL 50/50 BLEND
OF THE TWO MODEL SETS FOR TEMPS. THE GFS MEX POPS STILL TRY TO
TREND TOWARDS SOME SLGT CHC POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD. I BELIEVE
THAT THIS IS MODEL TREND IS BEING SKEWED HIGH DUE TO CLIMO
INFLUENCES. SO WILL GO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF POPS IN THE LONG TERM.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING
SEAS OF 1 FOOT WITH NORTH WINDS NEAR 4 KNOTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS NOW THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PGF WILL START OF NEXT WEEK FAIRLY
WEAK ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY LOW WINDS AND SEAS TO PREVAIL. THE PGF
WILL THEN START TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT STARTING LATE TUES/WED AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS MAY
PUSH THE WINDS AND SEAS UP LATE IN THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD TO
POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME SCEC CONDITIONS WED/THURS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/64




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